Mesoscale Discussion 1670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...southwestern South Dakota...and
Nebraska Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 142018Z - 142215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon and evening. Convective trends will be
monitored for the possibility of a severe thunderstorm watch.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms initiated early this afternoon over the
higher terrain of Wyoming, as ascent associated with an approaching
midlevel shortwave trough overspreads the area. Continued
initiation over the higher terrain along with new initiation farther
east along the a surface pressure trough will eventually pose a
severe-weather threat later this afternoon and evening.
Although low-level moisture is mixing out across much of the area
this afternoon (upper 40s to low 50s F 2-m Td), very steep low-level
and midlevel lapse rates (per 18Z UNR sounding) are still resulting
in over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles
across the region will support an isolated dry-microburst threat for
the strongest storms. For a more organized severe threat,
deep-layer shear is marginally supportive and strongest (around 30
knots) with northward extent into northeastern Wyoming and
southwestern South Dakota. The latest CAM guidance suggests some
potential for upscale growth of convection into clusters posing an
organized severe-wind threat. Convective trends will be monitored
for this scenario and the possibility of a watch.
..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 41230533 42330551 43110588 44280656 44700581 44820501
44900438 44900311 44810200 44510128 43750115 43160139
42540197 41970280 41560345 41210448 41230533
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
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Mon, 14 Jul 2025 20:45:05 +0000https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1670.html/20250714
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1669.html
SPC MD 1669MD 1669 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Areas affected...southeastern Georgia into northern/central Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141918Z - 142145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon, posing an isolated threat of
damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated on low-level convergence
boundaries across the region this afternoon in a hot, unstable
(~2500 J/kg MLCAPE) airmass. While upper-tropospheric flow is weak
(per XMR 14Z sounding), enhanced low-to-midlevel northerly flow on
the west side of the low off the Atlantic coast may help storm
organization. Local VWPs indicate around 25-30 knots of flow
between 700 and 500 mb, which may help to organize
southward-to-south-southwestward-propagating clusters as cold pools
begin to merge. These storms will pose a damaging-wind threat this
afternoon, but the impacts are expected to be too isolated to
warrant a watch.
..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 26808223 27278110 28788125 29898159 30868165 31688153
31898189 31778225 30928258 30228283 29458293 28818264
28168277 27498273 26808223
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
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Mon, 14 Jul 2025 20:45:05 +0000https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1669.html/20250714
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
SPC Jul 14, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Latest U.S. Mesoscale Discussion
The fire danger meter is for Placerville, California, which is the location of El Dorado Weather. The meter uses the Composite Burn Index or CBI. Listed within the meter is the current temperature and humidity for Placerville, two very important factors in measuring the fire danger. Also shown for the Placerville area is the Sierra Fire Forecast Text.
The rest of the page items are National fire watching tools. This includes the Fire Advisory Map, Fire Detection Map, Forest Fire Causes, and the US Fire Detection Text.
The fire dectection text lists the state, county, nearest town to the fire, and the distance in miles from the town to the fire.
The fire advisory map list the current fire danger or fire conditions severity for the lower 48 states, and shows color coded fire severity for all the national locations.
The Fire Detection Map shows all the current wild fire detections in the United States. Also listed is the exact longitude and latitude for each fire location, the nearby towns, the type of land cover such as deciduous broadleaf forest, mixed forest, or grasslands etc for example.
The pie graph is pretty self explaintory as it stands, and demonstrates a comprehensive chart of all of the causes of forest fires.
Tornado Outlook
