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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 061610
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes necessary. A
mid-level low will sit over the Great Lakes with another trough
digging south through the Desert Southwest, contributing to offshore
flow over far southern CA. Recent widespread rainfall and below
normal temperatures are leading to minimal fire weather conditions
today. However, the aforementioned weak-to-moderate Santa Anas today
will cure fuels over coastal portions of far southern CA in
preparation for additional wind on Day 2/Saturday.
..Stearns.. 11/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
A minimal fire-weather threat is forecast for today owing to a lack
of receptive fuels and relatively calm meteorological conditions. An
exception is the onset of a period of dry and windy conditions with
offshore Santa Ana winds in Southern California this weekend, but
conditions should remain below Elevated criteria for today.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 061839
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
Very minor adjustments were made to the existing Day 2/Saturday
Elevated wind/RH drawn area in agreement with the latest forecast
guidance. With an upper-level low positioned over northern Mexico,
offshore flow remains on track to impact portions of southern CA as
previously described. Dry and breezy to gusty easterly/northeasterly
winds today and again on Day 2/Saturday will further cure fuels,
making them available to burn. Locally critical conditions remain
possible where favored by terrain.
..Stearns.. 11/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast across a localized
area of Southern California tomorrow. Portions of the San Gabriel,
Santa Monica, and Santa Susana mountains, along with the San Gabriel
Valley, are forecast to experience a weak to moderate Santa Ana wind
event from late morning into early afternoon Saturday. Sustained
northeasterly off-shore winds of around 20 MPH (gusting to 30-40
MPH) are expected with relative humidity of 15-20%. Current fuels
guidance has ERCs reaching the 90th seasonal percentile for the
region, driven primarily by critically-low 10-hour and 100-hour dead
fuel moisture. Locally Critical conditions are possible where local
terrain favors, and Critical highlights may be introduced if newer
forecast guidance indicates drier or windier conditions than
currently expected.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 062138
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
The upper-level pattern starts on Day 3/Sunday with a ridge axis
centered over the western Great Plains and a trough over the Great
Lakes and the Northeast. The existing cutoff low over northern
Mexico will stall and weaken slightly through at least the middle of
next week. By Day 6/Wednesday, the ridge over the western US will
amplify even further, contributing to above-normal temperatures
across much of the CONUS. Daytime high temperatures could exceed
normal by up to 15-20 degrees over portions of the Northwest through
the northern High Plains on both Day 6/Wednesday and Day 7/Thursday.
A significant trough from the Gulf of Alaska will move toward the
Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Saturday, leading to the breakdown of the
upper-level ridge over the West. However, given the cool
temperatures and accumulating precipitation preceding the ridge's
formation, fuels across much of the CONUS will not be receptive to
large fire activity. Southern coastal CA and portions of the
Appalachian Mountains will remain drier than normal, but the overall
threat for significant wildfires remains low.
..Stearns.. 11/06/2026
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