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7 Day Animation SST El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO)

latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation

latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation



12 Month Animation SST El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO)

Animation of the Latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
10 April 2025
 

ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory

 

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a greater than 50% chance through August-October 2025.

In March 2025, ENSO-neutral conditions returned, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakening in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The westernmost Niño index values were near zero, while positive index values persisted in the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions [Fig. 2]. Below-average subsurface temperatures weakened [Fig. 3], but negative anomalies continued in the central equatorial Pacific, extending to 250m depth [Fig. 4]. A shallow layer of above-average subsurface temperatures continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific. Low-level wind anomalies remained easterly over the western and central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the central Pacific. Convection was suppressed around the Date Line and was enhanced near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.

The IRI and North American multi-model ensemble indicate ENSO-neutral will continue through the summer [Fig. 6]. The forecast team also favors ENSO-neutral, with chances well over 50% through summer 2025. Because of reduced forecast accuracy in the spring, the uncertainty increases at longer time horizons, with a 43% chance of ENSO-neutral and a 38% chance of La Niña during November 2025 - January 2026 (chances of El Niño are under 20%). In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a greater than 50% chance through August-October 2025 [Fig. 7].






Typical La Nina Weather Pattern

La Nina Winter Time Pattern Image



Typical El Nino Weather Pattern

El Nino Winter Time Pattern Image



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