891
FXUS66 KSTO 121954
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1154 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.


.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A break in precipitation is expected Today through Saturday,
    though morning Valley fog chances persist through Saturday.

  - The coldest storm of the season so far arrives late Sunday and
    continues through mid next week, bringing significant mountain
    travel impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today through Saturday...

Clear conditions are being observed over interior NorCal this
afternoon on GOES-West satellite imagery. Dry weather is expected
to continue through the first half of the weekend. Near normal
temperatures are expected, though a cooling trend will continue to
lower forecasted highs through early next week. There is potential
for patchy to dense fog in the mornings on Friday and Saturday,
generally a 50 to 80% chance for visibilities less than half a
mile in the southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin
Valley. Otherwise, calm weather prevails through Saturday.

...Sunday through Mid-Next Week...

The coldest system of the season so far arrives Sunday, bringing
gusty winds, moderate to heavy mountain snow, and moderate
rainfall through the middle of next week. Heaviest snowfall is
expected on Monday and Tuesday, with several feet of snow
forecasted to fall above 5000 feet. The NBM currently has a 70 to
90% chance of at least 2 feet of snow above 5000 ft between
Sunday evening and early Wednesday morning. Above 3000 feet, the
NBM has a 50 to 80% chance of 1 foot of snow or more during the
same time period. Snow levels in the Sierra will fall from 4000 to
5000 feet on Sunday, down to around 3000 feet by Tuesday. The
cold air associated with this system could bring snow levels down
even further, though there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in
this regard. This does mean, however, that there is a non-zero
chance for some snow accumulations down into the foothills over
the course of the storm.

Rain totals in the Valley will be highest in the northern
Sacramento Valley, with a 50 to 80% chance that 2 inches or more
of rain will fall between Sunday and early Wednesday. Elsewhere in
the Valley, there is a 50 to 70% chance of one inch or more of
rain. Though uncertainty remains about the exact timing, snow
levels, and precipitation totals for this storm, details should
become more concrete in the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Brief period of
MVFR to LIFR reductions due to patchy fog formation after 12z
Thursday across Valley TAF sites. Highest potential at RDD, RBL,
SCK, and MOD. Fog should quickly burn off by late Thursday
morning. Northerly winds below 10 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$