835
FXUS66 KSTO 281945
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1245 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Elevated Fire Weather Conditions in the northern Sacramento
   Valley, Burney Basin, and Sierra Foothills Friday through
   Sunday due to Hot Temperatures and Low Humidities.

 - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk Thursday and through the weekend
   for the Valley and Foothills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite continues to show clear skies across CA this afternoon,
with temperatures expected to climb into the 90s. Lower 100s are
expected in the northern Sacramento Valley. The hot and dry
conditions are due to a ridge over the central United States
building westward into the western United States. This trend will
continue through the week and into the weekend.

With the ridge building over the western United States our heat
increases, with Moderate HeatRisk expected Thursday through
Monday. Main areas affected are the Valley and Foothills, with
patchy Moderate HeatRisk in the mountains. EFI signals continue to
remain higher for the heat, and our confidence remains medium to
high for the widespread nature of the heat. Latest guidance did
back off slightly on the coverage of the Moderate HeatRisk and
also has only isolated incidences of Major HeatRisk. Thus, we
decided to hold off on any product related to heat for this
weekend. We will continue to monitor the heat and any deviation
of the HeatRisk across the area.

With the heat comes dry conditions as well, with increasing
confidence in low RH values across the Sierra Foothills, northern
Sacramento Valley, and Burney Basin. Low relative humidity values
during the afternoon and evenings are looking more probable, with
poor overnight recoveries. We have gone ahead and headlined for
Elevated Fire Weather Concerns Friday through Sunday due to the
heat and low RH values in the Sierra Foothills, northern
Sacramento Valley, and Burney Basin. The potential for single
digit RH values are possible over the weekend when the heat is at
its highest. Areas that could see this would be in the Burney
Basin and northern Sacramento Valley.

Confidence is on the lower end on when the ridge will break down
and move further east. Guidance struggles with the evolution of
the ridge. None the less, the heat and dry conditions are likely
this weekend so make sure to stay hydrated and limit outdoor
activities.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be out
of the southeast to southwest for the Sacramento sites at 5-10kts
this afternoon/evening. A few gusts up to 20kts can`t be ruled out
this afternoon and evening. Winds overnight go light and variable
for the TAF locations, with continued clear skies.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$