876
FXUS66 KSTO 151902
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1202 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026


.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Quick moving system Today-Thursday brings light mountain
   rain/snow, followed by gusty north to east winds Thursday-
   early Friday.

 - Dry weather late week into the weekend with near to above
   normal temperatures.

 - Next weather system brings increasing rain/mountain snow
   chances and breezy to gusty winds Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today-Thursday...

A digging trough will continue to push southward through the
Pacific Northwest and toward the Great Basin today into Thursday.
Light rain/mountain snow showers remain possible from Highway 50
northward through early Thursday morning, but forecast
accumulations continue to dwindle with highest expected totals of
0.1"-0.25" primarily along the Sierra/southern Cascades and Shasta
County mountains. Otherwise, dry and cool weather is expected to
prevail elsewhere today and Thursday.

As the trough ejects eastward into Thursday, gusty north to east
winds are expected to develop late this evening in the northern
Sacramento Valley before spreading through the remainder of the
Valley and Delta overnight into Thursday. Current NBM
probabilities of wind gusts greater than 40 mph have increased to
40-60%, with highest chances favoring the central and southern
Sacramento Valley along and west of Interstate 5 and north of
Interstate 80. As a result, a Wind Advisory is now in effect for
the Sacramento Valley and Delta from 5 am Thursday morning through
11 pm Thursday night. Strongest Valley wind gusts are anticipated
through Thursday afternoon before gradually decreasing with
downslope east- northeast wind gusts up to 45 mph along the Sierra
then expected to develop Thursday evening into early Friday
morning.

...Friday-Saturday...

As the midweek system continues its eastward trek through the end
of the week, breezy north winds are likely to persist on Friday
before trending lighter into the early weekend. Dry weather is
expected to persist on Friday and Saturday as a brief period of
ridging aloft builds in over the weekend. This ridging will allow
temperatures to return to near to above normal through the first
half of the weekend with some Minor HeatRisk possible on Saturday
from Sacramento southward.

...Sunday into Next Week...

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate another deepening trough
arriving Sunday into early next week, but notable timing
differences between ensemble suites persist at the moment. In
general, a return to active weather is anticipated Sunday into
early next week, however; there is potential for precipitation
onset to be delayed until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Regardless, increasing chances for rain/mountain snow, isolated
thunderstorms, and periods of breezy onshore winds are anticipated
by at least early next week. At this time, NBM probabilities for
precipitation greater than 1" remain around 50-70% for the
mountains/foothills and 30-50% across the Valley/Delta. Snow
levels are currently forecast remain around 5500-6500 feet, with
most accumulations remaining above 6000 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...

General VFR conditions at TAF sites next 24 hours. A weak system
will bring isolated light precipitation over the northern
Sacramento Valley and mountains/foothills after through 12Z
Thursday with a 5-10% chance for isolated mountain thunderstorms
which may lead to periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Gusty northerly
winds develop after 09Z-12Z Thursday with gusts of 25-35 kts in
the Valley. Northeast to east wind gusts of 20-40 kts in the
foothills and mountains.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for Carquinez
Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento
Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$