397
FXUS66 KSTO 201051
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
251 AM PST Thu Feb 20 2025


.SYNOPSIS...
Patchy Valley fog this morning while Gusty north to east winds
develop Thursday into Friday morning. Mostly dry weather and
above-normal temperatures expected through the weekend and into
early next week, with chances for light showers over Shasta
County on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Patchy Valley fog and low stratus are being observed along
Interstate 5 in the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin
valleys this morning via GOES West satellite imagery. Conditions
are expected to improve just after sunrise. Gusty north to east
winds are also being observed across interior northern California
with gusts up to 25 mph, mainly through the Valley and over the
Sierra. These winds will be their strongest through the morning
and afternoon hours today with gusts 15 to 30 mph. Winds will
then gradually weaken and become breezy late tonight through
Friday before tapering off.

Dry and quiet weather return today through Saturday as upper
level ridging builds over Northern California and the Pacific
Northwest. Temperatures will feel warmer today compared to
yesterday as a warming trend begins to take affect culminating in
above-normal temperatures. A few showers over Shasta County will
be possible on Sunday as a weak weather system moves through the
Pacific Northwest, however little to no impacts are expected.
Spring-like high temperatures will then continue through the
weekend and into next week as ridging continues to dominate the
synoptic pattern.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)...
Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis favor a continuation of
upper level ridging next week. As a result temperatures will be
above-normal, as a warming trend continues through the last week
of February. Daytime high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s
are expected through the Delta, Valley, and foothills, with 50s to
low 60s at higher elevations. The NBM indicates a 55 to 80
percent probability of high temperatures exceeding 70 degrees F
throughout the lower elevations over the extended forecast period.
Occasional periods of breezy north to east/downslope winds are
expected at times under the high pressure as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR/local IFR conditions expected across portions of
the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys due to
BR/FG and/or low ceilings until around 12z-15z this morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected next 24 hours across interior
NorCal. North to east wind gusts up to 15 to 25 kts after 12z
Thursday, mainly across portions of the west side of the
Sacramento Valley and the foothills/mountains.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$