Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 302000Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 11/30/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will remain minimal today for a majority of
the CONUS, with a few exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms may occur
along/near parts of the Gulf Coast as a cold front continues to
advance offshore, with a low chance for additional elevated
thunderstorms late tonight into early Monday morning for portions of
coastal TX. Isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist mainly
this afternoon/early evening across the southern FL Peninsula/Keys,
and separately across parts of UT. Limited instability and/or shear
will preclude severe thunderstorms across all these regions.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the
Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe
thunderstorms currently appears limited.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to intensify along the Atlantic coast
through the day Tuesday as a broad upper-level wave moves into the
eastern CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear probable
across parts of the Southeast and portions of the southern
Mid-Atlantic as strong synoptic-scale ascent overspreads a
marginally buoyant air mass. 

...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Georgia...
An initially weak surface low should be developing across the FL
Panhandle by around 12 UTC Tuesday morning with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms ongoing within a strengthening warm
advection regime. While elevated thunderstorms will likely develop 
across the broader region, a narrow surface-based warm sector may
materialize from the FL Panhandle eastward into northern FL/Southern
GA through 18 UTC. Medium-range ensemble guidance suggests SBCAPE
values may increase to 250-500 J/kg before an advancing cold front
shunts any surface-based buoyancy offshore by early/mid-afternoon.
More bullish solutions suggest that convection may be sufficiently
deep to realize the strongly sheared environment that should
manifest as the cyclone intensifies. However, the general model
consensus is that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too weak to
support robust updraft development, limiting confidence in the
potential for an appreciable severe threat. Even the typically
aggressive RRFS depicts only a weak/transient updraft/UH signal
across this region, suggesting that the overall severe threat is
limited. While risk probabilities are withheld, thermodynamic trends
will continue to be monitored given the very favorable kinematic
environment.

..Moore.. 11/30/2025

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

Critical fire weather concerns are expected to remain low Day
3/Tuesday through Day 8/Sunday as a series of mid/upper-level
troughs promote relatively cool and wet conditions across much of
the CONUS. A few exceptions appear to be across portions of the
Southern High Plains and Southern California, where less rainfall is
currently forecast. While periods of overlapping dry/breezy
conditions in these regions may foster sporadic locally elevated
fire weather conditions, critical fire weather concerns are expected
to remain low owing to poor fuel receptiveness from recent heavy
rainfall.

..Elliott.. 11/30/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...