Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
across portions of the Ohio Valley.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough will move from the MS Valley to the
Appalachians on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow
will overspread the MO Bootheel toward Lake Erie ahead of this
feature. At the surface, a corridor of upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints will be in place ahead of a surface front. Some ongoing
convection and cloudiness early in the day will limit stronger
destabilization, but at least weak MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is
forecast. While low-level flow will be weak, around 30-40 kt
west/southwesterly flow between 850-700 mb and 40+ kt effective
shear magnitudes will aid in some storm organization. A mix of
clusters and line segments will bring a risk of locally strong gusts
where stronger heating results in steepened low-level lapse rates. 

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A conditionally favorable supercell environment will be in place
across the southern Plains on Thursday ahead of a dryline. A weak
shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region early in the
day, departing by early afternoon. Height rises/shortwave ridging is
then forecast to build across the area. At this time, thunderstorm
development is not forecast as weak capping in the absence of
large-scale ascent should be maintained. However, trends will be
monitored given the otherwise very favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment. Otherwise, isolated elevated convection is
possible late in the period in a warm advection regime across north
TX into southern OK.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

CORRECTED FOR  DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...

A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will
eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly
mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt
850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours.
A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low
deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a
second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast
into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low
to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by
midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN
into central KS at midday. 

Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized
by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm
into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will
overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong
destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind
profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of
all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are
expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a
squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an
accompanying increase in damaging wind potential. 

...Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity...

A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough
continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an
eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least
weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor
a line of convection with damaging wind potential.

...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday...

The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore
the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential
appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal
precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday.
Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the
wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on
Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts
another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return
flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However,
severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.