WW 532 SEVERE TSTM FL GA CW 291845Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North Florida
Southern Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM
until 1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop over southern
Georgia in a hot/unstable airmass. These storms will track
southward through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging
wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Tallahassee FL to 35 miles north northeast of St Augustine FL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Hart
WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 532
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799
..MOORE..07/29/26
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 532
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-029-031-035-037-039-041-047-065-067-073-
077-079-083-089-107-109-121-123-125-129-292240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE
DUVAL FLAGLER FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GILCHRIST HAMILTON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON MARION
NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION
WAKULLA
GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-025-027-037-039-049-061-065-069-071-
075-087-095-099-101-127-131-155-161-173-177-185-201-205-229-239-
243-253-273-275-277-287-299-305-321-292240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MD 1799 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 532... FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Areas affected...Southern Georgia into northern Florida
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532...
Valid 292040Z - 292245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind, and perhaps brief
instances of large hail, continues for portions of northern Georgia
and southern Florida.
DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour depict mostly
short-lived pulse convection and outflow-dominant clusters across
southern GA. Although much of this activity has struggled to
maintain intensity (mainly owing to the limited kinematic
environment as sampled by regional VWPs), several instances of wind
damage have been noted with the more robust convective cores and
attendant downdrafts. Regionally, thermodynamic conditions remain
supportive of intense updrafts (as evident by periodic bursts of
colder cloud tops in GOES IR imagery and occasional MESH cores) with
MLCAPE remaining near 2500-3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates
around 8 C/km away from the deeper convective cold pools. A
combination of continued ascent along a weak front and along
colliding outflow boundaries should continue to promote scattered,
but relatively transient, convection capable of damaging wind swaths
and perhaps brief instances of large hail (most likely near 1 inch).
Further west into southern Alabama, thunderstorms are beginning to
develop along the diffuse cold front and within a similar
thermodynamic and kinematic environment. As with southern GA, storms
developing across southern AL will most likely exhibit pulse-like
behavior with some degree of clustering possible. Damaging downburst
winds will be the primary hazard, though isolated instances of large
hail will be possible with the more intense updraft pulses. Weaker
frontal forcing should promote more isolated thunderstorm coverage.
..Moore.. 07/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30128117 29888235 30248425 31378709 31998744 32448747
32728722 32798695 32608640 32358552 32058297 32048125
31998093 31778092 31488109 31208124 30918134 30628136
30128117
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1797 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...WESTERN DAKOTAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1797
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Areas affected...eastern Montana...northeastern Wyoming...western
Dakotas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 291952Z - 292145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and spread
eastward through the afternoon/evening. One more more clusters of
damaging wind will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage across
the high terrain in eastern MT/WY. A cluster of thunderstorms also
continues eastward across eastern North Dakota, producing gusts up
to 57 mph. Downstream across the western Dakotas, temperatures have
warmed into the upper 90s to 100s F with dew points in the upper 50s
to 60s F amid strong MLCIN and sunny skies through most of the day.
18z soundings from BIS and UNR show moderate instability amid dry
sub-cloud layers near the surface. Also sampled are steep low to
mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. SPC Mesoanalysis would
suggest that MLCIN is eroding. This environment will support
potential for strong to severe gusts. Guidance suggests that one or
more organized clusters may develop and spread eastward through the
afternoon. A watch may be needed to cover this potential this
afternoon.
..Thornton/Hart.. 07/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 44520581 46090516 47490425 48660358 48880306 48980206
48980137 48730084 48520047 47770033 47180045 46250063
45100096 43620202 43600403 43680490 44520581
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening in the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts will
also be possible across southern Georgia and northern Florida, as
well as the Great Basin/northern Intermountain West.
...20Z Update...
The forecast appears to be on track, and minimal changes were needed
with this update. Southward-spreading storm clusters in southern
GA/northern FL will continue to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts
through the afternoon into this evening. Any areas of upscale growth
will pose the greatest severe-wind risk prior to the onset of
nocturnal boundary-layer cooling. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch #532
for more information.
Farther west over the northern Plains, a persistent cluster of
thunderstorms and related cloud coverage over eastern MT/western ND
cast uncertainty on the overall severe risk. However, as a
subtle/low-amplitude midlevel wave currently over central MT
overspreads the area, the ongoing activity and additional storm
development along differential heating zones could pose an
increasing risk of severe wind gusts and isolated hail into this
evening. See MCD #1797 for more details.
Additional thunderstorms forming along the high terrain from CO
northward into eastern WY may also pose some risk of strong-severe
wind gusts as storms move eastward into a warm/moist air mass over
the High Plains. However, the severe-wind risk will be largely
dependent on the development of robust cold pools and upscale
growth, and weak forcing for ascent limits confidence in where this
risk will be maximized.
..Weinman.. 07/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026/
...GA/FL...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front sagging southward
across GA. A very moist and unstable air mass is present along and
south of the front, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and full heating
expected. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg
and scattered thunderstorm development. Sufficient northwesterly
mid-level flow of 15-25 knots will help storms propagate into north
FL by early evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible
in the stronger cells due to water loading and some momentum
transfer. If outflows can congeal, a more organized damaging wind
risk could develop late this afternoon and early evening before
weakening after dark.
...MT/ND...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along
a weak surface boundary near the MT/ND border. These storms will be
in a hot and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg. As this activity spreads northeastward across western ND, the
combination of a deep sub-cloud layer, steep low-level lapse rates,
and sufficient flow aloft will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts
appear possible over south-central South Dakota into central
Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences
of mainly damaging wind appear possible from the northern High
Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley into the central Plains,
the Raton Mesa vicinity, and the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
...Central to northern Plains...
A midlevel wave is forecast to move across the northern Plains
Thursday morning, with areas of thunderstorms likely ongoing from
the Dakotas into eastern NE and KS. Aiding this activity will be
theta-e advection out of the south, with the 850 mb gradient aligned
roughly along the MO River. While some of the region will be locally
stabilized by this activity, a corridor of strong heating/recovery
will occur near the surface trough during the afternoon, with
renewed activity over central SD into NE. Substantial storm coverage
will likely lead to mergers and an eventual MCS moving southeastward
into the evening. Sporadic hail may occur with the afternoon/initial
cells before transitioning to mainly a damaging wind threat.
...Southern AL/GA into northern FL...
A surface trough will remain draped across southern GA and AL with
mid 70s F dewpoints to the south. A weak northwest flow regime will
also remain over the area as the upper trough over the Northeast
slowly departs. Strong daytime heating will lead to substantial
instability, with scattered storms developing along the boundary.
Given the high PWAT and steep low-level lapse rates, some of the
cells are expected to produce locally damaging gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/29/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms appear possible from Iowa southward
into the Ozarks, and over the central and southern High Plains
Friday afternoon and evening.
...IA/MO/AR...
A shortwave trough is forecast to develop out of the northern Plains
and move southeastward toward the mid MS Valley Friday, with
increasing midlevel northwesterlies to over 40 kt. At the surface,
low pressure should develop from southern IA into northern MO during
the day, moving into western IL by 12Z Saturday.
Upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will be common ahead of an
associated cold front which will extend roughly across southern IA
and into central MO during the peak heating hours. While midlevel
lapse rates will not be particularly steep, MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg is
still forecast. Further, winds will veer with height, resulting in
semi-favorable hodographs for supercells with deep layer shear over
30 kt.
Early day rain appears likely from southern MN into IA and MO as the
initial warm/moist advection occurs, with diurnal storms expected
along the front during the late afternoon. The stronger storms may
produce hail, a brief tornado, or damaging wind gusts. Placement of
such a narrow north/south risk area has inherent uncertainties this
far out, but a corridor of greater severe probabilities could be
required in later outlooks as predictability increases.
...Eastern CO/NM...
Northwest flow aloft on the order of 20-30 kt will exist over the
High Plains on the backside of the shortwave trough to the
northeast. Surface winds will veer to east/northeasterly by late
afternoon as peak heating is attained. Dewpoints into the 50s F,
steep low-level lapse rates and modest northwest flow aloft should
yield a few cells capable of marginally severe hail or wind.
..Jewell.. 07/29/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were maintained across central
Idaho into western Montana for Day 2/Thursday. While limiting
factors to storm initiation (listed in the previous discussion)
still apply, high-resolution guidance continues to depict afternoon
(and possibly nocturnal) thunderstorms. Considering ERCs greater
than the 90th percentile across the region, and several ongoing
wildfires, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out within the
increasingly receptive fuelscape. The rest of the forecast remains
on track, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper high will continue to slowly drift westward over the
Southwest and likely expand from off the southern California coast
through the southern Plains. Upper-level heights are likely to build
over the Intermountain West, but an upper-level trough will approach
the Pacific Northwest during the evening and overnight.
Additionally, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is likely to precede
the larger trough and move over northern California and Oregon into
Idaho from late afternoon through overnight.
An IsoDryT area was maintained from central Idaho into western
Montana. There is some concern regarding thunderstorm development
due to building heights aloft and widespread, thick smoke across the
region. Given these potential constraints, high-based showers with
little to no lightning are possible. However, high-resolution
forecast guidance still indicates the potential for isolated to
perhaps scattered thunderstorms. If the mid-level shortwave arrives
slightly earlier than currently forecast (i.e., around peak
heating), this could provide enough instability and forcing for
ascent aloft to increase thunderstorm chances and coverage.
Regardless, given the forecast PWAT values of 0.5-0.8" and expected
high LCLs with a dry sub cloud layer, most showers/storms will
produce little to no wetting rain.
Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely across portions
of the Inland Northwest into northern California and the
western/northern Great Basin. The onshore pressure gradient across
the Northwest will strengthen with the approaching upper-level
trough and a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will develop farther
south across much of the Great Basin. This will result in
west-southwest sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph
amid minimum RH of 5-20%.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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