Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are anticipated across the US on Friday.

A large upper trough will dominate the weather across the
central/eastern United States on Day3 (Friday), with an upper ridge
along the west coast.  Model guidance suggests that low-level
moisture will be quite limited,resulting in generally stable
conditions.  Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected.

..Hart.. 01/14/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance generally indicates that amplified mid-level
troughing, evolving by late week to the east of the Rockies, will be
maintained through this coming weekend, before a fairly prominent
ridge near and offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia
coast weakens and redevelops to the west/northwest.  However, even
as flow trends less amplified, it appears that a broadly confluent
westerly to northwesterly regime to the east of the Rockies may
continue to support a series of southeastward developing cold
surface ridges.  Toward the middle of next week, this may become
less of an influence across the southwestern into western Gulf
Basin, beneath a belt of strengthening mid/upper westerlies
emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific.  It is possible that
low-level moistening and forcing for ascent could become supportive
of sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm development by
Tuesday/Wednesday across the northwestern Gulf.  However, it is not
yet clear that this will impact areas inland of the Gulf coast, or
become particularly strong.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the eastern half of the US will rapidly
intensify today and tonight as it merges with a weak upper low over
the southern US. Strong northerly flow aloft will develop as a
surface old front moves southward over the Plains and central US.
Behind the front, strong north/northwesterly winds are likely over
parts of the Plains and eventually the Southeast. This, and
persistent dry conditions may support some elevated fire-weather
potential.

...Central TX...
As strong troughing deepens over the eastern US, a dry cold front
will sweep into the Southern Plains and south TX. Along and behind
the front, a strong surface pressure gradient will drive north winds
of 20-30 mph over much of the southern and central Plains. Although
RH reductions will be limited to around 30% with cooler temperatures
advecting southward, the strong winds and dry fine fuels should
still support an elevated fire risk across central TX.

Surface winds will slacken some with southward extent as the primary
front arrives later in the diurnal cycle across the Rio Grande
Valley and South TX. Drier surface conditions will likely support
afternoon RH minimums near 20-25%. While the arrival of the stronger
northerly winds will be ill timed, the lower RH and drier fuels
should also support some fire-weather risk into South TX through the
afternoon and first part of the evening. The Elevated area was
expanded to the southern border for a conditional risk for Elevated
conditions.

..Lyons.. 01/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...