Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast over the continental U.S. today or
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move from the Northeast offshore into the
western Atlantic today. At mid-levels, westerly flow will prevail
over much of the central U.S., as a trough amplifies in the northern
Rockies. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible ahead
of the trough this afternoon. As the trough moves into the Great
Plains tonight, thunderstorms will be possible near the edge of a
low-level jet in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Scattered
storms may also develop across the Florida Peninsula today. No
severe threat is forecast today or tonight across the U.S.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/14/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely
late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to
southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind damage threat appears to
be from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana
during the evening and overnight hours.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will deepen on Sunday as it moves from the
Plains toward the MS Valley, with an intensifying mid and upper
level jet streak extending from Lake Michigan to northern MS into
Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move from IA/MO
into northern IL during the day, with further deepening overnight as
it pivots into Lower MI. A strong cold front will extend south from
the low, from IL into southeast MO and into eastern TX at 00Z. This
front will accelerate across the OH, TN, and lower MS Valleys
overnight, extending from OH to the FL Panhandle by 12Z Monday.

A broad zone of gusty southerly winds will exist well ahead of the
cold front over much of the region, aided by a mixed boundary layer
and 40-60 kt 850 mb winds through the peak heating hours. An initial
low-level moist plume will develop from eastern TX across AR and
toward the lower OH Valley during the day, with dewpoints above 60
F. Continued warm/moist advection will occur during the evening, as
the low-level jet becomes very strong, ranging from 50-60 kt over
the Gulf Coast states to 75 kt into IN, OH, KY. Dewpoints into the
mid 50s F will likely reach across much of IL, IN, and far southern
Lower MI.

As the cold front encounters the developing moisture/instability
plume, storms will likely develop from western IL/MO southwestward
toward the ArkLaTex by 21Z, with a rapid upscale growth into a
squall line/QLCS, peaking in the 00 to 06Z time frame across the
heart of the Enhanced Risk area.

Farther east, a secondary moisture plume will develop across GA and
the Carolinas, possibly supporting isolated strong or severe storms
across the Piedmont during the late afternoon and again overnight,
and perhaps along parts of the coast.

...Northeast TX across the MS and OH Valleys and up to IN/OH/Lower
MI...
While instability is likely to be a limiting factor late afternoon
and evening, strong large-scale ascent coupled with developing
extreme shear profiles will likely result in corridors of damaging
winds, with a few tornadoes as well. Shallow convection is likely to
develop along the cold front from MO into western AR by early
afternoon, with gradual strengthening as the air mass destabilizes.
Storms are also expected to develop ahead of the cold front late in
the day and into the evening, from southern IL into southeast MO and
eastern AR, with increasing wind and tornado risk from IL/IN into
western KY, TN, and northeast AR. The front will continue to push
rapidly east and southeast overnight, with continued wind and
isolated tornado risk from OH to the southern Appalachians. A
conditional tornado risk will also exist overnight ahead of the
front into AL/GA if cells can develop across the warm sector early
Monday.

..Jewell.. 03/14/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE CAROLINAS...VIRGINIA...AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are forecast on
Monday for parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.

...Discussion...
A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out
of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid
Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong wind
fields aloft. A surface low move from Lower MI into southern Quebec,
with a deep pre-frontal trough extending southward across eastern
PA, VA, and NC by around 21Z. Ahead of this trough/front, southerly
winds will bring 60s F dewpoints as far north as southeast PA.

Storms will likely be ongoing along the length of the cold front,
roughly from OH to the FL Panhandle Monday morning. Given the
uncapped air mass over the Carolinas, a few storms, possibly
supercells, may develop relatively early in the day as well, with
tornado potential. The greatest threat however will be during the
afternoon as cold front nears, and pressure falls are maximized
along with daytime heating. A few supercells ahead of the line will
be possible, along with embedded circulations and/significant
damaging winds within the squall line.

There are model differences regarding the speed/position of the cold
front, as well as the degree of instability. Regardless, damaging
winds over a large area appear likely, along with at least a few
tornadoes. Depending on the degree of destabilization, a strong
tornado or two may occur especially over parts of the Carolinas and
Virginia during the late afternoon. Many models forecast 300-500
m2/s2 SRH, along with pockets of SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg, which is
clearly favorable for tornadic supercells.

..Jewell.. 03/14/2026