Mesoscale Discussion 0014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 091708Z - 092115Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates exceeding 1.0 inches/hour expected to
persist across southwestern Kansas through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snowfall exceeding 1.0 inches/hour is
currently occurring across portions of western/southwestern Kansas
in the presence of surface cold air advection and 700mb
frontogenesis. The expectation is for these moderate to heavy
snowfall rates to persist at least through 20Z this afternoon, when
HREF mean snowfall rates diminish substantially. Surface winds
between 10-20 MPH may result in intermittent periods of reduced
visibility.

..Halbert.. 01/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   38600200 38750156 38790091 38699985 38269981 37469999
            36980050 36910144 37050167 37470158 37890160 38150177
            38480206 38600200 

Mesoscale Discussion 0013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...South-central/southeast LA into southern/central MS
and southwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 091649Z - 091845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado may
continue through the late morning to early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A storm cluster with occasional embedded rotating cells
is ongoing this morning near the southern MS/AL border. This cluster
is occurring within the MLCAPE gradient, along the eastern periphery
of deeper low-level moisture that is being advected in from the
southwest. As the buoyancy plume gradually expands eastward, this
cluster may persist though at least late morning. While there has
been some recent weakening of low-level flow, the KHDC and KMOB VWPs
continue to depict low-level hodograph enlargement, and some threat
for a brief tornado and/or locally damaging wind may continue for as
long as this cluster persists. 

Farther west, some increase in convection has been noted across
south-central/southeast LA, within a moist and uncapped environment.
While large-scale ascent will remain relatively subtle in the short
term, modest low-level warm advection may continue to support storm
development and maturation in this area, and also potentially
farther north into parts of central MS, near the northern periphery
of deeper low-level moisture. While there may be some weakening and
veering of low-level flow with time in this area, strong deep-layer
shear will support organized storms, including some supercell
potential. 

Some threat for a tornado, locally damaging wind, and possibly
isolated hail could accompany any organized storms within the
broader warm sector into early afternoon, though short-term coverage
is uncertain and may remain isolated until a more substantial
increase in severe potential later this afternoon into the evening.

..Dean/Smith.. 01/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   32579028 32828951 32868861 32728798 32578751 32378736
            31488772 31188790 30648839 30459057 30289109 30099157
            30119216 30459226 30989184 32579028 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas
into the central Gulf states.  A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts,
and large hail are possible through tonight.

...Southern LA northeastward into MS/AL this afternoon...
A southerly fetch of fully modified Gulf air (surface dewpoints near
70 deg F) within a weak but persistent warm-air advection regime
over the central Gulf Coast will probably yield a continuation of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon.  Some
breaks in the stratus will promote additional heating of the moist
and weakly unstable airmass.  Some weakening of low-level shear has
been observed this morning via the Jackson, MS and Hammond, LA
WSR-88D VADs, and this trend may continue through the mid afternoon
before strengthening later today and into tonight.  In the meantime,
an isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
may continue with a stronger storm or two.  

...TX/LA/MS/AL this afternoon into the overnight...
Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive
multi-layer shield of clouds across south-central TX northeastward
into western LA.  Ahead of a larger mid-level trough moving east
across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, a couple of
minor disturbances embedded within strong southwesterly flow are
forecast to move northeastward from TX into the lower MS Valley.  In
the low levels, a quasi-stationary front will serve as the northwest
delimiter of the moist/unstable sector before gradually moving
southward across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss later tonight.  The
air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon,
leading to eventual scattered thunderstorms with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg.  This initial activity later this afternoon over TX into LA
will gradually shift eastward into LA/MS this evening and MS/AL
during the overnight.  Ample deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few
strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail.  Towards
the late afternoon over east TX and western LA and especially
through the evening from southwest LA into central MS, 700-mb flow
(per EC model guidance) is forecast to intensify.  This
strengthening of the low to mid-level flow and enlarging of the
hodographs will probably coincide with the primary period of concern
for severe storms.  A few supercells capable of a tornado risk will
be the main hazard.  However, a threat for scattered damaging gusts
accompanying other organized storm structures and possibly a hail
threat will also continue into the overnight.

..Smith/Halbert.. 01/09/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast on Saturday across the
central Gulf Coast and Southeast.

...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Along and south of an outflow-reinforced cold front extending across
central AL into southern MS, scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing
across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast at the start of the
period. These storms will generally be focused along a 30-40-kt
southwesterly low-level jet and ahead of a northeastward-moving
frontal wave. 

Despite modest buoyancy, ample boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper
60s dewpoints) and around 50 kt of effective shear will continue to
promote organized storm clusters, to include the potential for a
couple supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern, though enlarged
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200-250 m2/s2
effective SRH) within the moist axis will yield some risk for a
couple tornadoes as well. The tornado risk will be largely dependent
on the degree of convective overturning in the warm sector. The
window of greatest severe risk appears to be from 12Z-18Z -- before
low-level flow veers ahead of the approaching front and departing
frontal wave. A SLGT risk was added for this corridor of heightened
severe potential. 

Thunderstorms will generally spread northeastward across GA into the
Carolinas in tandem with the northeastward-advancing low-level jet
and frontal wave, where they will eventually outpace the
surface-based warm sector during the afternoon.

..Weinman.. 01/09/2026