Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below.

..Thornton.. 01/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026/

...Discussion...
A prominent longwave trough will continue to prevail from the
Rockies eastward, with related continental low-level trajectories.
Lingering thunderstorm potential off the coast of southern Florida
in vicinity of the Florida Straits will continue to diminish as a
cold front progresses southeastward.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...Southern Plains into southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas...
Minor expansions to the critical area were made based on recent
model guidance and fuel information. The elevated area was expanded
northwestward more of southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado. There
is a signal for at least briefly critical conditions in these areas
despite lower temperatures. Recent fuel information suggests fine
fuels have dried after precipitation last weekend.

...Northeastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas...
With the potent mid-level jet pushing into the region, strong winds
are probable in the central High Plains. Sustained surface winds of
20-30 mph along with gusts of 40-50 mph appear possible. Area fuels
are dry; however, there is a strong signal for upper-level clouds to
be present through the day and temperatures are likely to struggle
to get above freezing. The downslope component to the winds will not
be very strong, but temperatures could near 40F in the Front Range.
While some fire weather concerns may develop, the mitigating factors
should limit the threat spatially and temporally.

...Piedmont...
After a relatively dry cold frontal passage, dry air will remain in
place as winds turn southerly in advance of the next shortwave
trough. RH of 20-25% could occur in some locations. Winds will
generally be the limiting factor for greater fire weather concerns.
Fuels remain dry outside of where light precipitation fell within
the last 1-2 days. Locally elevated fire weather is possible.

..Wendt.. 01/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0239 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026/

...Synopsis...
A stronger mid-level trough will dig into the southern Plains as
broader troughing becomes established over the eastern half of the
CONUS. A reinforcing cold front will move south into OK/TX early
Friday. This will support strong northwesterly gusts over much of
the Plains and some fire-weather potential.

...Southern Plains...
As the cold front moves south temperatures will be cooler, but the
coldest air should lag behind the front. With the air mass already
dry from the prior frontal intrusion, dry downsloping should result
in low RH of 10-20% over much of the Plains. Strong northwesterly
winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are likely from western KS
into OK/TX. Fuels remain very dry despite light precipitation and
cooler temperatures over the preceding days. This should support
widespread elevated and some critical fire-weather conditions Friday
afternoon.

A couple hours of critical conditions appear most likely beneath and
just south of the strong 700 mb jet across northern and western OK
Friday afternoon. Here, a few gusts to 40+ mph are possible
overlapped with fuels in the 90-95th seasonal percentile. 

...Central High Plains...
Much cooler surface temperatures (30s and 40s F) are expected
farther north into KS and eastern CO behind the front. However, very
dry conditions, single digit to below zero dewpoints and strong
winds of 20-30 mph may still pose a brief locally elevated
fire-weather threat where fuels are the most receptive.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

The upper-level pattern from this weekend through next week will
feature a trough in the East with a ridge in the West. Model
guidance continues to suggest the possible development/evolution of
the trough within the West late next week into the weekend, but
model variability--both between models and run-to-run--grows rather
large by that time frame. This pattern will promote multiple cold
air intrusions east of the Divide. Precipitation appears likely from
the Mississippi Valley eastward. The southern High Plains into parts
of the central High Plains are expected to remain dry. Depending on
how fuels respond to the colder air, some fire risk could increase
in these areas where stronger surface winds/downsloping occur.
Predictability of where this will occur and how intense these
conditions will be is too low for highlights.

..Wendt.. 01/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...