No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 21 20:54:02 UTC 2026.MD 0112 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MS/AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Areas affected...Southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 212014Z - 212245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage early
this afternoon from southeast MS into south AL, along and ahead of a
southward-sagging cold front. Some recovery has occurred this
afternoon to the north of the initial wind shift, with the leading
edge of the deeper cold and stable air still across parts of central
MS/AL, to the north of the developing storms.
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear are
conditionally favorable for organized storm structures, including
supercells. However, aside from weakly confluent flow near the
front, forcing for ascent is expected to remain generally
weak/nebulous across the region through the afternoon. The modest
ascent and a warm layer based around 700 mb (as observed on the 18Z
LIX sounding) may result in only slow intensification of the
developing storms and generally isolated severe coverage, though a
couple splitting supercells and/or small bowing segments may evolve
with time. If developing convection can mature and be sustained
near/south of the front, then some threat for isolated hail and
damaging winds could evolve this afternoon.
..Dean/Hart.. 02/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30528527 30258543 30358727 30388854 30518978 31338973
31828712 32138527 31888511 31648512 31168514 30528527
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 0111 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA INTO SOUTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Areas affected...Parts of central/southern GA into southern SC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 211844Z - 212115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado are
possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has recently become better
organized across parts of east-central GA. Deep-layer flow/shear (as
sampled by the KJGX and KCLX VWPs) remains favorable for organized
convection, and MLCAPE has increased into the 1000-1500 J/kg range
donwstream of this bowing segment, along/south of a cold front.
However, while this bowing segment has taken on a somewhat more
favorable north-south orientation, the front continues to sag
southward immediately ahead of the most organized part of the line.
This may temper severe-wind potential to some extent, though locally
damaging wind remains possible, especially if the ongoing bowing
segment can propagate along (rather than just north of) the front. A
brief tornado also cannot be ruled out if any part of the line can
persistently remain organized and surface-based, though generally
front-parallel flow may continue to favor a general undercutting
trend with time.
..Dean/Hart.. 02/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31788093 31828320 31668432 31678496 32108494 32308446
32528376 32688303 33068232 32938063 32728006 32158061
31788093
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.
...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS
east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.
..Hart/Dean.. 02/21/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ERROR
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
the Southeast this afternoon and evening.
...Southeast States...
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no
important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Hart.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS
east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.
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