WW 202 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 142045Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest and Central Kansas
Western Oklahoma
West Texas and Panhandle
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Within a hot/well-mixed environment, high-based
thunderstorms will continue to intensify and progress eastward
through late afternoon and early evening. Severe-caliber wind gusts
may occur, along with some hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest
of Russell KS to 55 miles south southeast of Lubbock TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Guyer
WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0203 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0202 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE LBB
TO 25 SE LBB TO 70 SSW CDS TO 45 NNW CDS TO 45 SSE LBL TO 30 NE
LBL TO 20 WNW DDC TO 40 ENE DDC TO 40 W HUT TO 25 NE RSL.
..MEAD..05/15/26
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...AMA...OUN...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-047-053-057-069-077-095-097-105-119-151-155-159-
173-191-150340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS ELLSWORTH FORD
GRAY HARPER KINGMAN
KIOWA LINCOLN MEADE
PRATT RENO RICE
SEDGWICK SUMNER
OKC007-009-045-055-057-059-065-075-129-141-151-153-150340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM ELLIS
GREER HARMON HARPER
JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS
TILLMAN WOODS WOODWARD
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 15 02:25:03 UTC 2026.SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts remain possible from
Kansas/Missouri southwest into northwest Texas.
...Northwest TX into KS and MO...
Scattered high-based storms persist from northwest TX into far
western OK and southern KS, with locally severe gusts. This activity
should generally wane this evening as inhibition increases. Farther
north into eastern KS, new cells have finally developed near the
weak wind shift and within the moist axis where dewpoints are near
60 F. Steep lapse rates aloft as well as deep layer shear near 40 kt
and an increasing low-level jet will favor cells producing hail over
1.00" diameter and locally strong gusts this evening. Area 00Z
soundings show that inhibition will increase over the next several
hours and may render most storms elevated. However, hail potential
may persist. Overnight, additional storms remain likely over
northern MO and into western IL in the warm advection zone as the
weak upper wave moves across the area. Marginal hail and locally
strong gusts will be possible.
..Jewell.. 05/15/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
Nearly zonal flow will be in place across much of the eastern US on
Day 3/Saturday. Meanwhile, a trough will move over the Intermountain
West. By Day 5/Monday, this trough will center over the central
Rockies, before ejecting to the north and east across the central
Plains. This will present multiple consecutive days of likely
Critical fire weather over portions of the Southwest and southern
Plains. The pattern then flattens as next week progresses, leading
to less certainty of potential fire weather concerns given the
colder air across much of the CONUS in the wake of the trough.
...Southwest/Southern Plains/Southern Great Basin...
On Day 3/Saturday through Day 5/Monday, the aforementioned
significant middle-level trough will promote multiple consecutive
days of Elevated to Critical fire weather across much of the
Southwest and adjacent southern Plains and southern Great Basin.
Warm and dry antecedent conditions amid the above normal
temperatures associated with the recent ridging will precondition
the area for potential ignitions. Southwest to westerly winds
sustained at 20-30 mph will combine with single digit to low teen
RHs for several hours. Current forecast guidance suggests that
overnight RHs will struggle to rise above 30% over much of the
region, suggesting burn periods well into the nighttime hours.
On Day 6/Tuesday, as the trough begins to recede to the north,
stronger winds aloft will linger over New Mexico and combine with
dry surface conditions to promote some threat of critical weather
conditions over the region for yet another day.
...California...
On Day 4/Sunday, northwest flow on the back side of the trough as it
digs over the Great Basin will lead to strong (20 mph sustained)
northerly winds combined with afternoon RHs in the teens over the CA
Central Valley. Thus, given the anticipated dry fine fuels in place
amid the warm and dry antecedent conditions, the 40% probs were
maintained to account for the potential fire weather threat.
..Stearns.. 05/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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