WW 201 SEVERE TSTM MT 132150Z - 140500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Montana
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM
until 1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm bands with potential severe wind gusts are
forecast to move into the Watch area this evening. Peak gusts
associated with the stronger cores and downdrafts will likely range
in the 60-75 mph range. This activity will gradually wane by late
evening into the early overnight period.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest
of Glasgow MT to 55 miles south of Billings MT. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 199...WW 200...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
22045.
...Smith
WW 200 SEVERE TSTM ID UT WY 131950Z - 140200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Idaho
Northern Utah
Western Wyoming
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM
until 800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
increase this afternoon and evening from northern Utah through
eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. High cloud bases, a deeply mixed
boundary layer, and moderate to strong mid-level flow support the
potential for strong to severe gusts with any deeper, more sustained
storms. Isolated gusts over 75 mph are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of West Yellowstone MT to 60 miles south southeast of Salt Lake City
UT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 199...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
22040.
...Mosier
WW 199 SEVERE TSTM MT 131850Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Montana
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM
until 900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next few hours as a strong shortwave trough progresses into the
region. Modest buoyancy atop a deeply mixed boundary layer will
support high-based storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts. A
few gusts over 75 mph are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Havre MT to 50 miles east southeast of Dillon MT. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24040.
...Mosier
WW 0201 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 201
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716
..WEINMAN..05/14/26
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 201
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-009-033-065-069-071-087-103-105-111-140140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN CARBON GARFIELD
MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS
ROSEBUD TREASURE VALLEY
YELLOWSTONE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW PUC
TO 45 NNW VEL TO 35 SSE BPI TO 40 NW BPI TO 25 NNE WEY.
..WEINMAN..05/14/26
ATTN...WFO...PIH...SLC...GJT...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 200
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
UTC009-013-047-140140-
UT
. UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAGGETT DUCHESNE UINTAH
WYC013-029-035-037-039-140140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT PARK SUBLETTE
SWEETWATER TETON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 199
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MQM TO
10 SSE HLN TO 20 ENE LWT TO 75 NE HVR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716
..WEINMAN..05/14/26
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...BYZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 199
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC001-007-027-031-037-043-045-057-059-067-095-097-107-140140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER FERGUS
GALLATIN GOLDEN VALLEY JEFFERSON
JUDITH BASIN MADISON MEAGHER
PARK STILLWATER SWEET GRASS
WHEATLAND
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0717 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Areas affected...northern Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132351Z - 140145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Conditional threat for severe wind and large hail this
evening.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus continues to deepen across portions the
northern Texas Panhandle near Amarillo, with a few attempts noted
further south east of I-27 near Cap Rock. This is occurring along a
boundary of increasing moisture moving northward from western
Oklahoma into the TX/OK Panhandles. Overall, forcing for ascent is
weak aside from the this weak boundary leading to low confidence in
thunderstorm development. Given a storm, the very warm and well
mixed boundary layer and steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be
conducive to instances of large hail and severe gusts. This threat
remains too conditional and isolated for watch issuance but trends
will be monitored.
..Thornton/Smith.. 05/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 36220170 36070189 35730214 35240219 34940211 34780190
34670161 34640087 34710051 34890015 35360005 35680012
35880019 36120037 36240075 36320117 36220170
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 0716 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199...201... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Areas affected...Parts of eastern Montana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199...201...
Valid 132347Z - 140115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199, 201
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of severe gusts (some upwards of 75 mph) will
continue spreading eastward into eastern Montana -- within WW201.
DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms moving eastward into eastern
MT have evolved into a loosely organized squall line along a
north/south-oriented surface trough/confluence zone. This band of
storms will continue spreading eastward in tandem with the leading
edge of midlevel height falls accompanying a robust midlevel trough.
Around 40 kt of midlevel west-southwesterly flow oriented
perpendicular to the leading gust front and a hot/dry pre-convective
boundary layer will favor a continued risk of severe wind gusts
(some possibly up to 75 mph) with eastward extent (within WW201).
..Weinman.. 05/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 46200885 46820879 48190849 48550850 48910827 49010736
48730697 48060669 46670688 46260728 46040789 46020846
46200885
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts remain
possible from the Great Basin into northern Rockies this afternoon
and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail risk may occur
over the northern Appalachians and the Texas Panhandle.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track.
Thunder and severe probabilities were trimmed over the OH Valley to
account for the passage of a broken squall line. Thunder
probabilities were also trimmed over portions of eastern KS and
immediate surrounding areas, as confidence for organized elevated
convection along the easternmost edge of a low-level WAA regime
continues to decrease.
..Squitieri.. 05/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026/
...WV/PA/NY...
Recent surface analysis places a low over northern Lake
Huron/central Ontario, with a cold front extending back
southwestward through western OH and western KY. Current satellite
shows the associated shortwave trough extending from central Ontario
into the Mid MS Valley. This imagery also shows two embedded
vorticity maxima, one near the surface low over central Ontario and
the other farther southwest over IL/IN. This shortwave is expected
to mature throughout the day, trending towards a more neutral tilt
by this evening, while also gradually shifting eastward. The
associated cold front is forecast to shift quickly eastward as well.
At least scattered clouds will likely persist throughout the day,
somewhat tempering the overall daytime heating. Even so, modest
low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 50s) ahead of the
cold front will support a corridor of sufficient buoyancy for
thunderstorm development ahead of the front from western PA and WV
eastward across PA and into southern/central NY. Linear forcing
along the front and relatively modest deep-layer shear will favor a
multicellular line segment mode. Potential exists for a few deeper
updrafts capable of damaging gusts, but the limited heating ahead of
the front, modest buoyancy, and displacement south and east of the
stronger low to mid-level flow should keep the overall severe
potential isolated. A few isolated instances of hail are possible
early in the convective cycle before the more linear structures
dominate.
Recently issued MCD #0710 addresses this area as well.
...Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined, negatively tilted
shortwave trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest. This wave
is forecast to continue eastward through ID and MT today. Strong
heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is expected ahead of this
wave from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At the same
time, mid-level moisture associated with the wave will advect
eastward/northeastward, resulting in large area of deep inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles that are also buoyant enough to support
convection and isolated lightning. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany the shortwave, with moderate mid-level flow extending
southward from the primary wave through UT and far western CO.
Scattered convection is expected as lift associated with the wave
begins to interact with this destabilizing airmass, likely starting
around 20/21Z from western MT into northern UT. This convection,
which should include lightning-producing updrafts, will then spread
eastward/northeastward with time. Strong to severe gusts are
possible across this entire region, with the highest likelihood for
severe gusts from central/southern ID into central MT where the
strongest mid-level flow is expected.
...TX Panhandle...
Deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the TX Panhandle
today, with temperatures climbing into the 90s. Low-level moisture
advection should result in higher dewpoints across the eastern
Panhandle, with the resultant dryline acting as a focus for
convergence and attempts at convective initiation. The overall
environment does not look conducive for initiation and majority of
the CAMs do not show storm development. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail.
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough and associated stronger mid-level westerly
flow push into the Northern Plains Day 2/Thursday. At the surface,
strong post frontal westerly winds of 15-25 mph and low RH will
align with dry fuels and RH of 20-30% to support an elevated fire
weather threat across the Dakotas. Farther west, more pronounced
deep-layer westerly flow will yield sustained west winds of 30-45
mph across central and eastern MT during peak afternoon heating,
although limited RH reductions, some expected rainfall through
tonight and green up across southern MT should mitigate an otherwise
critical fire weather environment. Elevated highlights were
generally expanded eastward, farther into ND/SD and central NE based
on latest forecast guidance.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph amid RH of 15-20% will bring
elevated fire weather concerns from far southeastern AZ, much of
southeastern NM into the OK and TX Panhandles. Delayed green up has
allowed receptive fuels to remain in place. A subtle mid-level short
wave is expected to eject into the southern High Plains Thursday.
The dry downslope trajectories behind a dry line will keep a dry,
sub-cloud boundary layer in place through early afternoon. The
arrival of the mid-level perturbation and associated surface low
evolution across southwestern KS, in addition to sufficient
mid-level moisture and afternoon destabilization, should result in
isolated, high based showers and thunderstorms across much of the TX
Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and adjacent CO/KS areas. Minimal
rainfall, gusty outflow winds and some lightning ignitions are
possible in existing dry fuels.
..Williams.. 05/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper level low will traverse the central United States/Canada
border as a long wave trough across the Eastern Seaboard transitions
to a closed low. Upper ridging will slide over the High Plains and
Upper Midwest, gradually flattening as the Canadian upper low moves
east. At the surface, a strong dry cold front extending south of a
central Canadian surface low will bring widespread fire weather
concerns to the northern/central Plains. A surface low will emerge
over the TX/OK Panhandles, tightening surface pressure gradients
east of the CO/NM higher terrain thus enhancing downslope flow and
deep layer mixing to promote a broad fire weather threat. Increasing
mid-level moisture and subtle forcing associating with an
approaching short wave impulse could aid in high-based thunderstorm
development across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles.
...Northern Plains...
Following the passage of a powerful cold front, a robust mid-level
jet and deep westerly flow will promote fire weather concerns across
the region. Modest RH of 20-30 percent and west winds of 30-45 mph
are possible with higher gusts across the Plains of MT and terrain
favored areas in central and eastern WY. A widespread transition to
green up over southeastern MT into the Dakotas may somewhat mitigate
fuel receptivity. However, in areas with minimal green up and/or
mixed receptive fuels, locally critical fire weather conditions may
emerge where RH could decrease below 15 percent.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Westerly downslope enhanced flow of 15-20 mph and RH reductions of
less than 20 percent amid a dry fuelscape will promote Elevated fire
weather conditions across the region. Farther east, increasing
mid-level moisture along with afternoon heating and resultant
instability should support isolated thunderstorms across the OK/TX
Panhandles on Thursday afternoon, where an IsoDryT risk area has
been introduced.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
An embedded short wave within broader westerly mid-level flow will
move into the Upper Midwest by Day 3/Friday. Robust west winds at
the surface in the wake of a departing deep surface low in Ontario
will bring keep a fire weather threat across much of the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. A more subtle mid-level
perturbation ejects into the Southern Plains Friday as an associated
lee surface low develops across the High Plains, supporting dry and
breezy conditions and enhanced fire weather concerns. A multi-day
fire weather threat is likely across portions of the Southwest and
Southern Plains as a larger scale trough sets up over the western
U.S. with persistent southwest flow aloft bolstering lee trough
formation across the Southern Plains.
...Day 3/Friday...
...Northern Plains...
Dry and breezy westerly flow in the wake of a cold front will likely
enhance fire weather concerns across portions of eastern MT into the
Dakotas and western Minnesota, where fuels remain receptive.
However, changes to current Day 3/Friday forecast are possible
depending on rainfall distribution from Day 2/Thursday.
...Southern Plains...
A swath of enhanced southwest winds will likely develop south of a
lee surface low across the TX Panhandle across portions of the
southern High Plains Friday. Enhanced downslope drying as the subtle
short wave aloft shifts into the Southern Plains along with breezy
southwest winds and dry fuels should promote a fire weather threat
amid dry fuels. 40% critical probabilities were introduced across
southeastern NM and adjacent far West TX, northeastward into far
southwestern OK.
...Day 4-7/Saturday-Tuesday...
Fire weather concerns shift mainly into portions of the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a larger scale upper trough anchors over
western CONUS for the weekend into early next week. Persistent
southwesterly flow aloft will aid in lee trough development across
the Southern Plains, driving dry and breezy conditions over the
Southwest and southern High Plains.
...California...
Stronger northwest flow on the backside of the trough with an
accompanying Pacific cold front shifts southeastward over the
weekend. Dry, post frontal flow funneling through the CA Central
Valley should bring a fire weather threat to this region on Day
5/Sunday as finer fuels and grasses dry leading up to the stronger
northerly/northwesterly wind event. 40% critical probabilities were
added to the CA Central Valley to cover this potential threat.
..Williams.. 05/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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