WW 473 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 082220Z - 090500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
520 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North central into west central Iowa
South central into east central Nebraska
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 520 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern Iowa
into eastern Nebraska through late evening, with a mix of multicell
clusters and transient supercells. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will
be the main threat, though the stronger storms could produce
isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Hastings NE to 30 miles south southeast of Mason City IA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 471...WW 472...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
32020.
...Thompson
WW 472 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 081925Z - 090200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
125 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Colorado
Nebraska Panhandle
Southeast Wyoming
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 125 PM
until 800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop over the mountains
and foothills of Colorado/Wyoming and spread eastward through the
afternoon. The strongest storms will pose a risk of severe wind
gusts and hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast
of Douglas WY to 25 miles south southeast of La Junta CO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 471...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
WW 471 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI LM 081900Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Iowa
Southeast Minnesota
Southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 200 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a boundary
across parts of southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin, with a
few severe storms possible. Damaging winds and large hail are the
main risks.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of
Mason City IA to 20 miles southeast of Manitowoc WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
WW 0473 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 473
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BBW TO
15 N OLU TO 30 N FOD TO 25 SW RST.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1549
..MOORE..07/08/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 473
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-047-049-069-073-075-077-079-
081-083-085-091-093-109-129-133-151-155-161-165-169-187-195-197-
090040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BOONE BREMER
BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL
CASS CERRO GORDO CRAWFORD
DALLAS FRANKLIN GREENE
GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON
HANCOCK HARDIN HARRISON
HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH
MILLS MONONA POCAHONTAS
POTTAWATTAMIE SAC SHELBY
STORY WEBSTER WORTH
WRIGHT
NEC001-019-021-023-025-035-037-039-053-055-059-061-067-079-081-
093-095-099-109-121-125-129-131-141-143-151-153-155-159-163-169-
177-181-185-090040-
WW 0472 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 472
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..07/08/26
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 472
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC011-017-025-039-061-063-073-075-087-089-095-099-115-121-123-
125-082240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON
LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN
OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-082240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
WYC009-015-021-027-031-082240-
WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FRM TO
15 WSW VOK TO 15 S CWA TO 30 NW MBL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1549
..MOORE..07/08/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...GRB...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-090040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE CHICKASAW CLAYTON
FAYETTE FLOYD HOWARD
MITCHELL WINNESHIEK
WIC009-015-021-023-025-027-039-043-047-049-061-071-077-087-089-
091-097-103-111-117-131-135-137-139-090040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA
CRAWFORD DANE DODGE
FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN LAKE
IOWA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC
MARQUETTE OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE
PEPIN PORTAGE RICHLAND
SAUK SHEBOYGAN WASHINGTON
MD 1551 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE/NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO into southwest NE/northwest KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472...
Valid 090052Z - 090215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe-wind threat may spread eastward through the
evening. Downstream WW issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...As of 0045 UTC, convection is relatively disorganized
across northeast CO, though there has been some tendency for
expanding outflow and a transition to more of a cluster or linear
mode. As this convection spreads eastward, it will encounter richer
low-level moisture and stronger instability (with MLCAPE increasing
above 2000 J/kg), but there will also be a tendency for increasing
CINH with the onset of nocturnal cooling. If a sufficiently robust
cold pool can evolve this evening, then a storm cluster and possibly
a small MCS may be able to overcome the near-surface stability and
propagate eastward through the evening, with a threat for at least
localized severe gusts (potentially near/above 75 mph due to
favorable lapse rates and DCAPE). Moist, low-level easterly flow
impinging upon the eastward-moving outflow renders this scenario
plausible, and downstream watch issuance is possible as convection
approaches the eastern extent of WW 472.
..Dean/Thompson.. 07/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 38600124 38650242 38710325 38950357 39600364 40240352
40810315 40940172 40970109 40900072 40780049 40520027
40070016 39680022 39240035 38990052 38600124
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1550 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 473... FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska into western Iowa
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...
Valid 090025Z - 090230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
continues.
SUMMARY...A transition from semi-discrete supercells to a linear
storm mode has occurred and will promote an increase in severe winds
downstream into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, KGID and KOAX imagery has shown a
convective mode transition from predominately
semi-discrete/clustered supercells to a linear band. Additionally,
convective development continues to develop west/southwestward along
a frontal boundary, and will likely merge with the developing band
within the next hour or so. This activity will continue to propagate
into the best regional thermodynamic environment, which features
MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and low-level lapse rates are near 7.5 C/km.
This thermodynamic will favor further updraft development and cold
pool development, especially considering adequate deep-layer bulk
shear in place across the warm sector (the KOAX VWP continues to
sample 0-6 km bulk shear values of around 30 knots). Consequently,
some uptick in severe wind potential appears probable in the next
couple of hours across eastern NE and possibly into western IA. The
wind threat may be modulated to some degree by weak low-level winds
sampled by the KOAX VWP, which may favor outflow-dominant
convection. However, embedded swaths of severe winds behind the
outflow will still be possible.
..Moore.. 07/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40679823 41019828 41559760 41739717 41909582 41689541
41309528 40989531 40729542 40499564 40419596 40279659
40679823
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1549 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471...473... FOR WESTERN TO NORTHEAST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1549
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Areas affected...Western to northeast Iowa
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471...473...
Valid 082321Z - 090115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471, 473
continues.
SUMMARY...Corridors of severe wind potential will likely emerge
across west-central and northeast Iowa over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...The early stages of deeper cold pool development are
noted within a convective cluster in far southeast MN/northeast IA
and within an emerging band of convection to northwest of the Des
Moines area. This likely signals a transition from semi-discrete
supercell/multi-cell storms into a more linear storm mode across
both regions. Downstream, temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s
with an axis of around 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE draped ahead of both
clusters, and regional VWPs hint that deep-layer wind shear values
are around 30 knots, which appears to be slightly stronger than
depicted by latest mesoanalyses. Although low-level lapse rates
downstream are not overly favorable for downdraft accelerations, the
observed radar trends and downstream environment hint that a couple
of corridors of strong to severe winds will likely emerge across
western and northeast IA over the next few hours. This scenario is
supported by recent HRRR solutions, which suggest peak wind speeds
between 60-70 mph will be possible as the clusters/lines become
better organized.
..Moore.. 07/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 43629187 43179120 42869101 42619097 42369109 42159144
41179481 41179534 41309567 41729588 42099602 42219607
42509575 42819474 43309357 43659268 43709233 43629187
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from
the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the
northern High Plains, from North Carolina into southern Virginia,
and over southeast Arizona.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with
this update.
The SLGT risk in the central High Plains was expanded northward into
northeast WY, southwest SD, and far southeast MT -- driven by
15-percent wind probabilities. High-based thunderstorms are already
forming/strengthening along the high terrain in northern WY and
southern MT. Given steep lapse rates/moderate buoyancy and an
elongated/straight hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear)
downstream, a few organized clusters will pose a risk for scattered
severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. See MCD #1543 for more
information.
Farther east, the SLGT risk in the Midwest was expanded northward
into southeastern MN and central WI, based on the latest placement
of the surface boundary. Thunderstorm clusters will pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. As these storms track
southward into a moist/unstable air mass across northern IA this
evening/tonight, upscale growth could promote a locally greater
concentration of damaging wind gusts.
..Weinman.. 07/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026/
...WI/MN/IA...
A fast-moving shortwave trough is moving eastward across ND. As
this system approaches the western Great Lakes region this
afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along a surface
boundary extending from southeast MN into central WI. A moist and
very unstable air mass will be present along the boundary, aiding in
the development of a few severe storms. Sufficient deep-layer shear
will promote supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. This activity
will build westward along the boundary into northern IA by early
evening. A cluster or two of this activity could congeal into
bowing structures with a continued severe wind risk this evening.
...High Plains...
The upper ridge over the Rockies has weakened today, resulting in
stronger westerly flow into parts of WY/CO/NE/KS. Scattered
high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by mid-afternoon over
the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY and spread eastward
into the Plains. Moisture will be limited near the foothills, but
weak easterly surface winds will maintain 40s dewpoints in eastern
CO, leading to convective intensification. Most CAM solutions show
thunderstorms capable of locally severe wind gusts tracking eastward
through the evening into parts of southwest NE and western KS before
dissipating after midnight.
...Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies...
Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep low-level lapse rates,
and ample mid-level moisture will result in conditions favorable for
scattered high-based thunderstorms over a relatively broad area this
afternoon and evening. Gusty/damaging winds will be possible with
the strongest storms.
...Southeast AZ...
Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to form over
the higher terrain of southeast AZ and propagate south-southwestward
through the early evening. Inverted-v profiles will promote a risk
of gusty/damaging winds in a few of the storms.
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
The extended forecast period exhibits a critical fire weather
pattern for portions of the Intermountain West with thunderstorms
earlier in the week followed by dry and breezy conditions,
generating a favorable environment for the emergence of possible
holdover lightning ignitions and growth on existing fires. Then, as
monsoonal moisture advects into southern CA and the Great Basin late
this weekend/early next week, opportunities for thunderstorms return
where dry fuels exist.
Residual moisture will push east of the Colorado Rockies and be
suppressed southward to southern Arizona and New Mexico beyond Day
3/Friday as a ridge builds across the western CONUS. Strong upper
troughing will persist over the Pacific Northwest through Day
6/Monday, meanwhile amplifying ridging and southerly flow aloft will
encourage monsoonal moisture to slowly translate northward.
Ensembles do indicate some initial dry thunderstorm potential on Day
5/Sunday into early next week across portions of southern/central
CA, the Sierra Nevada, and possibly the Bay Area where preceding hot
and dry conditions could increase fuel receptivity. Uncertainty in
the expanse of instability and northward progression of mid-level
moisture precludes dry thunderstorm probabilities for now; however,
guidance will be monitored closely in future outlook cycles.
...Days 3-5/Thursday-Sunday...
Enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will promote dry downslope
winds over the northern Sierra Nevada into the southern Cascades,
while an antecedent dry airmass and gusty winds overspread the
Greater Four Corners region on Day 3/Friday. 40% Critical
probabilities have been expanded to account for this threat. On Day
4/Saturday, 40% Critical probabilities were also expanded into the
Columbia Basin and southwestern MT where guidance depicts dry and
breezy conditions amid forecast ERCs approaching the 80-90th
percentile. As the trough shifts northward on Day 5/Sunday, strong
southwesterly flow aloft and lee surface troughing will maintain
fire weather concerns across the northern Sierra Nevada, southern
Cascades foothills/adjacent lower elevations, and portions of
central ID into southwestern MT. The spatial extent of drawn
probabilities may be adjusted in future outlooks as confidence
increases in the evolution of the upper pattern.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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