Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the middle Florida
Peninsula today and/or across parts of the Upper Midwest and middle
Missouri Valley tonight.

...Florida Peninsula...
A semi-persistent general pattern continues with storms focusing
along a convectively reinforced front from the eastern Gulf across
the middle part of the Peninsula. While not a high-confidence
scenario, a few subtleties may imply a bit more near-shore supercell
and waterspout/brief tornado potential as compared to yesterday.

The latest WSR-88D VWP data from KTBW samples weak
lower-tropospheric winds but with moderate directional turning and a
speed increase above 3km AGL, netting around 25-30 kt effective
shear. This is consistent with a modest 00z-to-12z increase in winds
aloft noted in Tampa Bay observed soundings, with a mid-level
cooling trend also noted. Winds aloft may further trend a bit upward
this afternoon per various guidance, potentially supporting a few
organized/sustained storms capable of at least weak/transient
rotation, especially in vicinity of the surface front. It also
appears that clouds are not quite as prevalent early today within
the nearby warm sector inland, which could modestly boost parcel
accelerations within a very moist environment, characterized by
73-75F surface dewpoints. The overall scenario could seemingly
support some potential for near-shore waterspouts or possibly even a
brief tornado inland near the front.

...Iowa/middle Missouri Valley tonight...
Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms should develop
tonight as warm advection and isentropic ascent increase to the
northeast of a northeastward-advancing warm front. Source region
moisture will be modest, but sufficient mid-level moistening will
support thunderstorm potential on the edge of the Great Plains
elevated mixed layer. While some elevated moisture/buoyancy guidance
depictions may be a bit too aggressive (such as the NAM), a general
increase in guidance trends lends credence to the possibility that
750-1250 J/kg MUCAPE may materialize. With effective shear in the
cloud-bearing layer expected to increase to 40+ kt, the possibility
exists for a few elevated supercells late this evening into the
overnight, with a few instances of hail possible.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/08/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On Sun/D4, a shortwave trough and surface low (previously associated
with the tropical cyclone) will move east across the TN/OH Valleys,
and toward the Mid Atlantic Sunday night. A warm front and northward
surge of moisture will occur from GA/Carolinas into VA/DelMarVa,
resulting in at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Substantial rain
and thunderstorms are likely to exist over the region, and therefore
boundary layer warming/destabilization is in question. Most models
show little if any daytime heating. As such, predictability is low
at this time, but at least low severe probabilities could be added
in later outlooks as the scenario evolves.

To the west, a shortwave trough with tropical remnants will affect
southern CA and AZ, with strong southwest winds aloft. Substantial
model differences exist regarding destabilization due to increasing
clouds and rain, though some severe wind and even hail potential
cannot be ruled out where instability is locally higher. This area
too may see at least low severe probabilities in later outlooks as
predictability increases.

For the remainder of the period through Thu/D8, a potential western
trough ejection may occur into the Plains, with the strongest
instability on or after Wed/D7 as moisture return becomes more
established with upper 60s F dewpoints possible from TX into OK and
KS. As such, this area will also be monitored as the event nears,
and as trough timing becomes more predictable.