Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across
the middle Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. Isolated severe storms may
also occur across the southern Plains and central/southern High
Plains this afternoon through early evening.

...Middle Mississippi Valley and Ozarks...
Recent surface analysis places a low over the central MN/IA border
vicinity. A cold front extends southwestward from this low into
southwest KS before then arcing more westward across the OK
Panhandle and northwestward through southeast CO. A pre-frontal
trough also extends from this low to another weak low in the
south-central KS/north-central OK border vicinity (about 25-30 miles
north of Enid, OK), before continuing southwestward through the TX
South Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from
southwest OK through southwest MO and southern IL within the warm
conveyor preceding these surface boundaries. Extensive cloud cover
associated with these showers and storms extends from OK into MO and
IL as well, with additional cloud cover near the surface low over
much of MN, IA, WI, and IL. 

Sheltered environment across the warm sector beneath this cloud
cover is characterized by dewpoints in the low 70s. General
expectation is for this airmass to destabilize as the ongoing
showers and thunderstorm continue to shift eastward/northeastward
and skies clear before the arrival of the pre-frontal trough and
cold front. The primary low will continue to occlude, and the
development of a secondary triple point farther south across
northern MO appears likely. Afternoon thunderstorm development is
anticipated along the cold front and pre-frontal trough as well as
near the surface low and triple point. Effective deep-layer shear
around 30 to 40 kt should be sufficient for organized storm
structures. A more cellular mode is likely early in the convective
cycle, before trends towards a more linear/bowing mode over time as
cold pools amalgamate. Given the overall moist profiles,
water-loaded downbursts appear to be the primary risk during the
more initial cellular mode before cold-pool driven gusts become more
likely during the linear phase. The threat for damaging winds should
spread southeastward regionally through late afternoon and evening.

A corridor of more southerly (perhaps even slightly southeasterly)
wind is anticipated south of this triple point, combining with low
to mid level southwesterlies to support moderate low-level shear and
an associated threat for brief tornadoes. 

...Front Range/Raton Mesa into the TX Panhandle/South Plains...
Storms are expected to develop and increase in coverage across the
high terrain through mid/late afternoon before then subsequently
spreading southeastward into the very warm and deeply mixed boundary
layer across the lower elevations. High-based, outflow-dominant
storm structures could support the potential for strong to severe
gusts. Additionally, interaction between these storms (and
associated outflow) and the southward progressing front may occur
from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains. This
interaction could result in a corridor of greater wind gust
potential from east-central NM into the TX South Plains during the
late afternoon.

...Western AR into southwest OK/northwest TX...
Thunderstorms will likely redevelop on scattered basis on the front
later this afternoon and evening. The very warm and moist afternoon
boundary layer will support the potential for severe caliber wind
gusts regionally. Deep-layer wind profiles will generally be weak,
but stronger mid/high-level northwesterlies could support a degree
of storm organization as storms cluster and spread
south-southeastward.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/31/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind
appear possible across central Kentucky, middle Tennessee, and part
of northern Alabama Saturday afternoon and evening. A broader area
of more isolated damaging wind potential will exist from parts of
the Ohio Valley into portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail may
occur over New Mexico into southeast Arizona Saturday afternoon into
evening.

...TN and OH Valleys...

A compact upper low and attendant positive-tilt shortwave trough
will spread east from the Lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau toward
the Mid-South/Lower OH Valley on Saturday. This will bring a belt of
30-40 kt mid/upper southwesterly flow across parts of the region,
decreasing with southward extent into the TN Valley. At the surface,
low pressure initially over central IL will slowly progress east
across IN and western OH. A trailing cold front will move east in
tandem with the low, while a warm front remains nearly stationary
across southern IN/OH. A very moist airmass will be in place, with a
plume of 70s dewpoints extending northward from northern MS/AL
through Middle TN and into KY/southern IN/southwest OH. 

Showers/thunderstorms and widespread cloudiness are likely Saturday
morning within the low-level warm advection regime ahead of the
surface cold front. This will likely impact severe potential from
late morning through early evening as stronger heating may be
limited. Furthermore, low-level lapse rates will be stunted by early
day convection and limited heating. Rich boundary-layer moisture
will result in 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid sufficient vertical shear
for organized convection. Strong to severe storms capable of wind
damage will be the main hazard with storms from midday into early
evening. Some tornado risk also is apparent, especially near the
triple point, where 0-1 km SRH will be maximized. However, the
impact of early day convection and cloudiness on low-level lapse
rates/destabilization leads to uncertainty in the extent of more
robust tornado potential as low-level instability may be
insufficient to take advantage of the small area of enhanced
low-level SRH, precluding higher tornado probabilities at this time.

...NM/AZ...

A midlevel disturbance is forecast to migrate south across High
Plains within northerly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the
western U.S. upper ridge/anticyclone. Low-level flow will become
more east/southeasterly with time into the afternoon, promoting
upslope flow amid 50s surface dewpoints. Steep low and midlevel
lapse rates will foster up to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and
convection is expected to develop from the Raton Mesa vicinity
southward across higher terrain in NM. Thunderstorm clusters will
mainly pose a risk for strong/severe outflow gusts. However, initial
convection could also pose a risk for hail given elongated/straight
hodographs and 500 mb temps near -8 to -10 C.

..Leitman.. 07/31/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds are possible from the
Lower Great Lakes into the Carolinas and parts of Georgia Sunday
afternoon and evening. A more conditional severe risk exists across
parts of North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota late Sunday
afternoon into night.

...Upper Ohio Valley to Southeast...

The base of an upper trough initially extending from the Ohio Valley
to the Gulf Coast will stall over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on
Sunday. Meanwhile, the northern portion of the upper trough will
lift northeast across the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. This will
result in generally weakening midlevel south/southwesterly flow from
GA into the Lower Great Lakes. Nevertheless, a very moist
boundary-layer will reside across the region ahead of a weak surface
front. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will support
generally 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong destabilization will be
limited by early day/ongoing convection, cloud cover and poor lapse
rates. Nevertheless, sufficient vertical shear will support
transient organized cells/clusters, particularly where any pockets
of strong heating occurs. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
hazards with thunderstorms through early evening. 

...North Dakota...

A very conditional environment for severe storm development will
exist across central/eastern ND and vicinity on Sunday. An amplified
upper ridge over the region will result in warm midlevel
temperatures and capping through the period. As an upper shortwave
trough tracks across the northern Rockies and into the Canadian
Prairies, height falls will overspread the northern Plains beginning
around 00z. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east across
the northern High Plains and western ND during the afternoon, before
stalling across central ND into western SD overnight. While
surface-based convection seems unlikely, warm advection ahead of the
surface front could result in sporadic elevated convection. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and moderate elevated instability amid
increasing westerly flow aloft could support a risk for hail. Storm
development is uncertain, but will maintain the conditional Marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk for now.

..Leitman.. 07/31/2026