Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast.

...South Florida...

Midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across the northern
Gulf basin late this evening. As this feature digs toward the FL
Peninsula, strong cold front will surge to near the southern tip of
the Peninsula by 18z, then across the straights by late afternoon.
Latest radar data exhibits shallow convection across the eastern
Gulf basin, but minimal lighting has been noted with this activity.
HREF guidance suggests scattered convection will develop along the
boundary as it surges southeast, but forecast instability is not
particularly noteworthy, and lapse rates will remain poor. Earlier
thoughts regarding the prospect for thunderstorms continues. While a
flash of lightning can not be ruled out, most updrafts will remain
too weak/shallow to justify a 10 percent probability of thunder
during the day1 period.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/15/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A series of disturbances will move cyclonically through a longwave
mid-level trough over eastern North America.  Farther west, a
mid-level anticyclone will be stationary to the west of the Pacific
Northwest coast.  A surface ridge will extend southward along the
spine of the Rockies/High Plains and cool/stable conditions will
prove hostile for thunderstorm development across the Lower 48
states on Friday.

..Smith.. 01/15/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.

A broad upper trough will prevail across most of the CONUS on
Saturday, with dry/stable conditions inhibiting thunderstorms in
most areas.  A few afternoon storms are possible over south FL, but
weak CAPE and limited vertical shear should preclude severe storms.

..Hart.. 01/15/2026