Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI
ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...KENTUCKY...OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large
hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong
gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning.

...Mid MS Valley / Midwest / OH Valley...
Strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from AZ/NM across OK/TX and
into the mid MS Valley and OH Valleys. As a trough begins to amplify
across the central Plains, significant warming aloft will occur in
the midlevels, which may impact quality of instability over the
Midwest. However, low-level moisture will already be in place with
50s F dewpoints common and perhaps lower 60s F toward the lower OH
Valley, which will initially support favorable instability profiles
between 12-18Z today, before the stronger warming aloft occurs.

Low pressure will deepen into MO during the day and move into lower
MI by 12Z Friday. A 40 kt low-level jet beneath strong midlevel
winds will result in long hodographs, and, 200-300 m2/s2 SRH over
much of the warm sector including eastern MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH.
Strong heating over MO will result in steep lapse rates and storms
are likely to form there near 12-15Z. This activity should generally
spread northeastward during the day across IL and IN, perhaps
extending into western KY. A couple supercells appear likely, with
tornado/hail/wind potential. Behind this initial/midday activity,
the rapid warming aloft may reduce potential for additional storms.
However, elevated instability should support storms producing hail
farther northeast in the warm advection regime across the upper OH
Valley and perhaps approaching Lake Erie.

...Central CA Coast...
A line of shallow convection is forecast to be ongoing close to
Monterey County at 12Z this morning, and this activity will
translate southward along the coast through 15-18Z. Forecast
soundings indicate shallow SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg, along with
moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface. As such,
locally strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as the front
pushes south.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/19/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered, but generally weak, thunderstorm activity is
possible Friday east of the lower Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and
Southeast.  A more substantive increase and clustering of
thunderstorms appears possible across parts of the northern Gulf
Coast states late Friday evening into early Saturday, which may pose
at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong, but
generally sub-severe wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo renewed
amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific
through this period.  This is likely to include a significant short
wave trough digging south-southeast of the Gulf of Alaska (roughly
along 140W longitude), to the east of building ridging across and
north-northwest of the Aleutians.  Farther east, mid-level ridging
is forecast to build inland of the Pacific coast, with remnant
larger-scale downstream troughing developing eastward across the
Rockies through Mississippi Valley.

There remains spread among model output concerning the continuing
strength of a short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged
from this troughing, after it reaches southwestern portions of the
Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period.  It is generally
forecast to become sheared and weaken as it progresses to the south
of a blocking mid-level high centered near southern Hudson Bay, and
downstream troughing digging into the Canadian Maritimes and
northern New England.  However, it appears possible that it may
maintain considerable strength east-northeastward across the lower
Great Lakes region through the day Friday, while its associated
occluding surface cyclone weakens across Michigan.

It continues to appear that secondary surface cyclogenesis will be
slow/subdued from the lee of the Blue Ridge across and
east-northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, before perhaps
undergoing more substantive deepening offshore Friday night.  The
trailing surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall across the
Carolinas, while retreating northward near the southern edge of the
strong westerlies across the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday, in
advance of a short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest.

Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the
Gulf is probable along and south of the front.  However, warm
layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper
subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend
inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development through much of
Friday into Friday evening.  

...Gulf Coast States...
While mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the short wave
trough emerging from the Southwest may remain well to the cool side
of the surface frontal zone, it appears that strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support potential for
increasing thunderstorm development by late Friday evening and
continue overnight.  There appears a consensus among latest model
output that this will focus across parts of northern Mississippi,
Alabama and Georgia by 12Z Saturday.  While this is likely to become
rooted above a cool, stable near-surface layer, forecast soundings
indicate that an initially warm/dry capping layer above the moist
layer will contribute to convectively unstable thermodynamic
profiles, which may become conducive to severe hail, in the presence
of strong cloud bearing layer shear.  Potential for severe gusts
appears low, but as activity strengthens and perhaps organizes
overnight, gusty surface winds may accompany activity.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may overspread parts of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some
risk for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

...Discussion...
Latest model output continues to indicate the evolution of a broad
mid-level cyclonic circulation across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific by early Saturday, with a number of vigorous short wave
perturbations pivoting around its center, generally settling near
44N/140W.  At least a couple of these may already be providing
support for surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone which may
occlude while migrating around its northeastern through northern
periphery during the day Saturday.  It appears that a trailing
cyclone may undergo substantive strengthening before occluding,
while migrating around the eastern through northeastern periphery of
the mid-level low Saturday through Saturday night. 

Downstream, as amplification of large-scale mid-level ridging
proceeds Saturday across the Rockies, digging short wave
perturbations to its east are forecast to contribute to the
amplification of larger-scale troughing east of the middle and lower
Mississippi Valley.  This may be accompanied by further development
of a frontal wave offshore of the Carolina coast by 12Z Sunday,
while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley.

...Northern Pacific coast...
The offshore cyclogenesis may be accompanied by intensifying
southerly lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields near northern Pacific
coastal areas by late Saturday night, as a frontal precipitation
band approaches or progresses a bit inland of coastal areas. 
However, with the mid-level cold core supportive of thermodynamic
profiles conducive to thunderstorm activity likely to remain well
offshore through this period, the potential for severe storms
appears negligible.

...Southeast...
Aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm
advection, vigorous organizing convection may be ongoing at 12Z
Saturday, mainly near or to the cool side of the initially
quasi-stationary frontal zone across parts of central Mississippi,
Alabama and Georgia.  As this forcing develops eastward, and daytime
heating contributes to modest boundary-layer destabilization to the
south/southeast of the front, there appears potential for convection
to develop and intensify to the warm side of the front, in the
presence of strong and sheared westerly mean flow, including 30-60+
kt in the 850-500 mb layer.  This may be accompanied by further
organization and increasing potential for strong to severe surface
gusts while spreading toward the Carolina/Georgia coast and northern
Florida through early Saturday evening.  It is possible that severe
probabilities could be increased further in later outlook updates
for this period.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026