Mesoscale Discussion 0472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern MN into extreme northwest WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 171244Z - 171415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and locally strong to severe
gusts may develop through mid morning.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has developed in the vicinity of a
cold front across parts of southern MN. Short-term guidance suggests
this convection will expand in coverage and potentially intensify
through the morning, within the northern gradient of an expanding
buoyancy plume extending from the Great Plains into the Upper
Midwest. Moderate mid/upper-level flow will support sufficient
effective shear for storm organization as convection deepens and
becomes rooted closer to the surface. 

In the short term, convective mode may remain rather complex, though
strong embedded updrafts and possibly an elevated supercell could
evolve out of the developing convection. Hail is expected to be the
primary near-term threat, though localized strong/damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out.

Some guidance (notably recent HRRR runs) suggest that this ongoing
convection may eventually become surface-based and pose a threat of
all severe hazards across parts of WI, due to downstream low-level
moisture transport and diurnal heating/destabilization. However,
this evolution may not occur until late morning or during the
afternoon. The need for watch issuance through mid morning is
uncertain, but trends will be monitored for the development of
more-organized elevated storms and eventual transition to
surface-based convection.

..Dean/Smith.. 04/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44979427 45449409 45739306 45569259 45149242 44729238
            44539242 44229261 43909284 43649314 43529456 43779458
            44979427 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower
Missouri Valley into central Great Plains.  Initially this may be
accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few strong
tornadoes, before severe wind gusts 60 to 90 mph become the
most prominent hazard by this evening.

...Synopsis...
Surface analysis this morning depicts a front bisecting MN north to
south to a low near the NE-IA-SD border, with the front extending
southwestward into the central High Plains.  Water-vapor imagery
shows a prominent upper trough near the MT-ND border
south-southwestward into eastern UT.  A belt of increasingly strong
southwesterly 500-mb flow will overspread a destabilizing warm
sector today as the upper trough eventually reaches the Upper
Midwest and central Great Plains late tonight.  Concurrently, the
aforementioned cyclone will develop northeast to Lake Superior as a
warm front over IA advances northward into the western Great Lakes. 
Meanwhile, the cold front will sweep southeast reaching the central
Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Great Plains by early
Saturday. 

...Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley...
A northward expanding warm/moist sector on the nose of a 50+ kt
southerly LLJ will continue to destabilize as large-scale ascent
approaches from the west.  A large-hail threat may develop this
morning with developing convection across southern MN (see
forthcoming MCD #472 for short-term details).  Heating and advection
of 60s deg F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates
will support the development of a moderately to very unstable
airmass from IA-IL northward into the upper MS Valley to the east of
the front and southeast of the low.  Upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE is forecast immediately ahead of the front with strengthening
flow aloft, strongly favoring organized storms, including
supercells.  Recent model guidance continues to show the development
of discrete supercells later this afternoon ahead of the front over
parts of central/northern WI near the low, and farther south in the
vicinity of eastern IA into adjacent portions of WI/northwest IL. 
All hazards will be possible with this potential activity, including
the possibility for an intense tornado.  Large to giant hail will be
possible with supercells.  Other storms likely to evolve quickly
into a band of severe thunderstorms will develop farther west and
push east coincident with the front.  Damaging wind gusts will tend
to become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes.
Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of
storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices,
before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into
IN/Lower MI late.

...KS-OK eastward into the lower MO Valley...
Continued moistening and heating of an airmass to the east of a
dryline/cold front and associated triple point will lead to a very
unstable airmass from OK into KS by early to mid afternoon.  A
capping inversion will likely inhibit storm development until mid
afternoon near the front.  Initial storm development will likely be
supercellular near the triple point before a more extensive band of
cellular storms develops along the boundary.  Both a supercell and
QLCS tornado risk is apparent given the appreciably large
CAPE/shear.  A coalescing of cold pools and intensification of a
squall line with embedded surges and bowing segments may result in
focused swaths of more intense severe gusts (i.e., locally 75-90
mph) from south-central and eastern KS into west-central MO. 
Farther south, a more conditional setup south of the triple point
along the dryline is expected.  Large to giant hail could accompany
any mature/sustained supercell along with a tornado risk. 
Eventually the front will sweep southeastward with a convective line
yielding a risk for wind/hail.

..Smith/Dean.. 04/17/2026