Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern
Texas.

...Carolinas into southeast Virginia...
A positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Northeast today,
with tail end sweeping across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A
surface trough / front will extend roughly from NJ/DelMarva into the
Piedmont, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. Daytime
heating will result in 500-1000 J/kg with generally poor lapse rates
aloft. However, peak heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, and
perhaps support locally strong outflow winds as storms develop on
the boundary after 18Z. Forecast wind profiles suggest mixed-mode
storms with both cells and small bows will be possible, and marginal
hail cannot be ruled out as effective shear tops 35 kt. 

...Southern TX...
Shortwave ridging will occur over TX today, which may induce weak
warm advection atop the surface front. Despite northerly winds at
the surface, a band of midlevel moisture may remain aloft,
supporting scattered thunderstorms at various times of the day. The
weak synoptic ascent will probably result in minimal severe (hail)
chances today.

..Jewell/Moore.. 03/08/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the
Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...ArkLaTex and Lower MS/TN Valleys...

A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the
southern Plains to the TN Valley through Monday afternoon/evening.
In the absence of stronger height falls, little surface cyclogenesis
is expected. Nevertheless, deep layer southwesterly flow will
support persistent warm advection regime. Rich boundary-layer
moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F) will be in
place across the Lower MS Valley beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
Pockets of stronger heating of the moist warm sector will support
MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (particularly across southern AR/northern
LA into MS). Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings
amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes owing to strong mid/upper
flow. Forecast hodographs also become elongated/straight above 2-3
km. 

Large-scale ascent will remain modest and may limit storm coverage,
but most CAMs guidance suggest at least a few storms will develop
within the warm advection regime. Convection will mainly pose a risk
for large hail (with some potential for hail up to 2 inch diameter)
and localize strong wind gusts. Given moist low-levels and modestly
enlarged/curved low-level hodographs, a tornado or two also may be
possible, but is not expected to be the main hazard.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday
from the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley
vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.

...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity...

A complex scenario is expected to unfold on Monday and Monday night
across a broad warm sector from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS
Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity. An initially split-flow upper
level pattern will see an upper low and attendant trough over
northwest Mexico lift northeast across the southern Rockies into the
adjacent High Plains. As this occurs, a northern stream upper trough
will deepen over the northern/central Plains, with the two systems
merging by the end of the period. This will result in substantial
mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming across the area atop strong
low-level warm advection. A broad warm sector with surface dewpoints
in the 60s F will encompass much of OK/TX/eastern KS eastward into
the Mid/Lower MS Valley and Lower OH/TN Valleys. Two areas of
deepening surface low pressure are forecast -- one across the OK/TX
Panhandle vicinity, the other across northwest MO into IA. A dryline
will extend southward from the Plains low, and a warm front will
extend west to east from southern IA into northern IL/IN during the
afternoon. After 00z, a cold front will develop southeast, becoming
positioned from southern Lake Michigan southwest to central OK.
There is some uncertainty in the position of these surface features,
but this appears to be the best estimate at this time based on
various guidance. 

Some uncertainty also exists with regards to capping, particularly
across OK into parts of MO. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear atop
a very moist warm and moderately unstable airmass should support
scattered to possibly widespread severe thunderstorms. Supercell
wind profiles will support large to very large hail where discrete
convection occurs. Linear forcing along surface boundaries also may
favor linear segments, especially after dark. Tornado potential may
be maximized near the surface warm front/triple point across parts
of MO/IL and far southeast IA. Outlook areas may change some in the
coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2026