Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across
the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon
and evening.

...Southern High Plains...
Beneath a northwesterly mid-level flow regime, lee side cyclogenesis
today will influence additional northward moistening regionally, in
the presence of low-level upslope trajectories with diurnal
differential heating along the higher terrain including the Raton
Mesa. Thunderstorms will develop/increase through mid/late afternoon
across eastern New Mexico/far southeast Colorado, and could expand
northeastward into southwest Kansas by evening. Modest buoyancy and
30-40 kt effective shear regionally will be supportive of a few
supercells and sustained multicells, with potential consolidation
into small organizing southeastward-moving clusters. Isolated
instances of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts may occur
mainly late this afternoon through mid-evening.

...Dakotas/Minnesota...
Influenced by a clipper-type southeastward-digging shortwave trough,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near a
southeastward-moving pre-frontal trough/cold front this afternoon.
While overall moisture/buoyancy will be limited, diurnally
steepening lapse rates and strengthening mid-level
west-northwesterly winds could yield some hail, and more so,
strong/locally severe wind gusts this afternoon through around
sunset.

...Gulf Coast/Coastal Southeast...
Some stronger pulse-type storms with gusty winds may occur this
afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment to the
south of a front. However, current expectations are for the
severe-storm risk to remain highly localized with organized severe
potential remaining limited overall.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/15/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across
the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon
and evening.

...Southern High Plains...
Northwesterly flow aloft will support a sharpening lee trough across
the southern High Plains today, with lee cyclogenesis yielding a
surface low over southeast CO by the late afternoon. Mass response
to the deepening lee trough and developing surface low will result
in moist low-level southeasterly/southerly flow across much of the
southern High Plains. This moistening will help offset mixing via
diurnal heating, keeping dewpoints in the 50s through the afternoon.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place as well, with the
combination of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates
supporting airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy by this
afternoon. 

Thunderstorm development is initially expected over the high terrain
of south-central CO and central NM during the afternoon. Moderate
deep-layer westerly flow will take these storms into the lower
elevations of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and
evening. Moderate buoyancy combined with 30 to 40 kt of effective
shear will support the potential for a few supercells and sustained
multicells, with potential consolidation into small organizing
southeastward-moving clusters. Hail is possible early in the
convective cycle, with a trend towards more damaging gusts within
any forward-propagating clusters during the late afternoon and
evening.

...Dakotas/Minnesota...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
dropping southeastward into the northern Plains within the western
periphery of a broad upper trough that extends over much of the
central and eastern CONUS. Surface moisture will be limited ahead of
this wave, but low to mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave
and cold temperatures aloft will still support modest buoyancy
across the region this afternoon. This buoyancy coupled with ascent
from the shortwave will result in isolated to widely scattered
high-based thunderstorms. Additionally, strengthening
west-northwesterly flow attendant to the shortwave could yield some
strong/locally severe wind gusts this afternoon through around
sunset. 

...Gulf Coast/Coastal Southeast...
A very moist airmass is in place in the vicinity of a weak frontal
zone that extends from the TX Coast northeastward through the
central Gulf Coast and southern GA. Numerous to widespread showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated across much of this region. The
airmass is weakly sheared, favoring a slow-moving, disorganized
storm evolution with heavy rain as the primary risk (as noted in the
Day 1 WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook). However, a few damaging gusts
from water-loaded downbursts are still possible. Overall coverage is
expected to remain less than 5%.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/15/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

...Morning Update...
Good humidity recoveries occurred overnight across the central
Plains, however such relief is short-lived as fire weather
conditions return this afternoon. Daytime high temperatures will
range from 70-85F with RH declining to 15-20% at peak heating.
Behind a weak, dry cold front passing through the region late
morning, northwesterly winds will gradually increase to 15-20 mph
(gusts up to 30 mph). Elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions are expected amid a drought stressed landscape and
widespread 80-95th percentile ERCs. See the previous discussion for
more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026/

...Synopsis...
Between a large-scale trough encompassing the eastern two-thirds of
the CONUS and an upper ridge over the West, a robust midlevel speed
max will overspread the northern/central Plains during the day. At
the same time, a related cold front will advance southeastward
across the region. 

Along/behind the cold front/surface trough, ample diurnal heating
will result in a well-mixed boundary layer, with 15-20 percent RH
expected across parts of eastern WY into the NE Panhandle and
vicinity. Here, enhanced low/midlevel flow along the periphery of
the passing speed max and a tightening pressure gradient will result
in 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds. These dry/breezy
conditions atop dry/receptive fuels will yield elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon.

Despite relatively weaker upper-level support, strong terrain-driven
winds of 15-20 mph (locally greater in gap-flow areas and higher
elevations) and 10-15 percent RH will promote locally elevated fire
weather conditions across parts of the eastern Great Basin, Four
Corners, and Central Rockies. However, these conditions appear too
localized for highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...