WW 286 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 080550Z - 081300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri
Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Monday morning from 1250 AM until 800 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and
intensity through the overnight hours, with occasionally severe
storms possible. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but
hail and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north of Tulsa
OK to 20 miles north northeast of Harrison AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Hart
WW 285 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 072055Z - 080400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeastern and Eastern Montana
Western and Central North Dakota
Western and Northwestern South Dakota
Northeastern Wyoming
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 100
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon and intensify across western portions of the Watch. An
initial linear cluster of severe thunderstorms is forecast to evolve
into a bow echo as it matures and moves into the western Dakotas
this evening. A corresponding intensification of the severe-wind
threat is expected with widespread severe gusts expected and 80 to
100 mph gusts likely in localized swaths. Large to very large hail
may also occur with storms that can develop ahead of the squall
line. A tornado is possible with the squall line.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 125
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of
Sheridan WY to 55 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 284...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 85 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
22050.
...Smith
WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0286 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 285
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW RAP
TO 20 W 2WX TO 25 NW Y22 TO 40 ENE DIK TO 45 WNW N60 TO 45 WNW
MOT TO 65 NW MOT TO 80 NE ISN.
..LYONS..06/08/26
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-009-015-033-037-041-049-055-057-059-061-065-069-075-079-
083-085-101-080340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH
GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER
MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER
MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER
PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE
SHERIDAN SIOUX WARD
SDC019-031-063-105-080340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CORSON HARDING
PERKINS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
MD 1023 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest
Missouri...northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 080533Z - 080730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scatted convection driven by warm advection could
occasionally become severe and produce wind damage and,
conditionally, a tornado. The need for a watch is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection has increased within the
MO/KS/AR/OK region this evening. Widely scattered storms have
developed in response to the low-level jet. The airmass is quite
moist with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F. As such, MLCIN is fairly
minimal. The moderate to strong low-level advection has increased
SRH per regional VAD data. While conditional, the tornado threat is
not zero. However, isolated wind damage is likely the primary hazard
with these storms. Some guidance has suggested that enough storm
development will occur that a cold pool could develop. Should this
happen, a small MCS could track into more of Arkansas where greater
buoyancy resides.
..Wendt/Hart.. 06/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 35929565 36059650 36559674 37489623 37559468 37109357
36449318 35949325 35649394 35929565
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0420 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains
this afternoon and tonight...
* LOCATIONS...
Western and Central North Dakota
Eastern Montana
Western South Dakota
* HAZARDS...
Widespread hurricane-force damaging winds
A couple tornadoes
Isolated large hail up to baseball size
* SUMMARY...
A bow echo thunderstorm complex with widespread damaging winds
and significant severe gusts up to 100 mph appear likely over
parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening.
Scattered large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
..Gleason.. 06/07/2026
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind
gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible
today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central
Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in
parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the
end of the period in the northern High Plains.
...Front Range Into Central High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the
Intermountain West into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold
front will advance southward across the central High Plains as a low
deepens ahead of the front. During the afternoon, an axis of
maximized low-level convergence will become focused along the Front
Range of east-central Colorado, along which thunderstorms are
expected in the afternoon. These storms will move eastward out of
the higher terrain into northeast Colorado during the mid to late
afternoon. A line of severe storms is expected to organize by early
evening.
RAP forecast soundings in northeastern Colorado late this afternoon
have MLCAPE peaking around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 55
knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 8.5 C/km.
This will support supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with any rotating storms
that can become intense. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
is forecast to peak around 200 m2/s2 over parts of northeastern
Colorado during the late afternoon, which will support a tornado
threat. As a cluster moves eastward into the central High Plains,
organization into a line is expected. This will increase the
potential for severe wind gusts, and a few gusts above 70 mph will
be possible.
...Great Plains...
A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the
southern and central Plains today, with surface dewpoints mostly
from the upper 60s F into the mid 70s F. This will enable a pocket
of strong instability to develop by afternoon across central Kansas.
From near the instability max westward, model forecasts suggest that
low-level convergence will become maximized during the afternoon
over parts of western and central Kansas. This should result in
isolated to scattered convective initiation. A cell or two is
expected to develop and move southeastward into the strong
instability during the mid to late afternoon.
RAP forecast soundings near the instability max at 21Z have MLCAPE
near 4000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells
with large hail and severe wind gusts. Low-level shear may also
support a conditional and isolated tornado threat. In addition, the
strong instability will contribute to a potential for hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 70 mph with
the more intense rotating cells.
...Mid Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward today across the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast from far western Kentucky into southern
Illinois. Along this axis, deep-layer shear is forecast to be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat. As low-level lapse rates
steepen in the late afternoon, a few severe wind gusts will be
possible.
...Northern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western U.S.
today, as mid-level heights fall over the northern High Plains.
Ahead of the trough, a surface low will form in eastern Montana
tonight, as upslope flow develops to the east of the low. Near the
surface low, low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized
late in the period, which will support isolated thunderstorm
development from northeast Montana into far northwestern North
Dakota. Instability, deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates may be
sufficient for an isolated hail threat, mainly between 09Z and 12Z
Tuesday morning.
..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/08/2026
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be
strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely.
Farther south, widely scattered severe storms capable of very large
hail and damaging winds with significant gusts will be possible
across portions of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.
Additional, more isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds are possible from parts of the Midwest into lower Ohio Valley
Tuesday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially over the northern Rockies Tuesday
morning will accelerate northeast into the north Plains, ahead of a
more significant vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level
jet streaks moving into the northern and central Plains Tuesday
night.
At the surface, low pressure is expected develop from southeast MT
into northwest ND during the day, along a Pacific front or
dryline-like boundary shifting east through the northern High
Plains. Meanwhile, a boundary initially across northern SD into
northwest MN will retreat north to the International Border as a
warm front. Elsewhere, a diffuse warm or quasi-stationary front will
reside across portions of the mid MO Valley into mid MS Valley.
...Northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley...
A 30-40 kt low-level jet will enhance moisture return south of warm
front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, with
MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500+ J/kg by afternoon within the
poleward expanding warm sector. Height falls attendant to lead
short-wave trough coupled with convergence in the vicinity of the
surface low and Pacific front/dryline are expected to foster
scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon over the
western Dakotas.
Strengthening deep-layer shear to 40-50 kt at a substantial angle to
the surface front will support rapid evolution into supercells,
which could initially be a bit higher based, given initiation on the
western edge of richer, boundary-layer moisture. Large to very large
hail will be the primary hazard initially. Tornado potential is
expected to increase through the evening as storms move east into an
increasingly moist and more strongly sheared low-level environment.
Model forecast soundings indicate large, clockwise-curved hodographs
with substantial SRH. However, there is some uncertainty as to what
the predominant storm mode will be during the time of the low-level
shear amplification. As such, this forecast will include a 10%
unconditional tornado probability with a conditional intensity group
one. Higher values may be required in subsequent forecasts if
confidence increases in a sustained discrete or semi-discrete storm
mode.
At some point, storms are expected to grow upscale into an MCS along
coalescing storm-scale cool pools, signaling an increasing damaging
wind risk across the Red River Valley Tuesday night.
...Central Plains...
Recent model runs have trended toward an earlier arrival of the
upstream short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis, which results
in meaningful height falls overspreading the dryline during the
latter half of the diurnal heating cycle. Various models indicate
the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development by mid/late afternoon across western parts of NE and KS,
perhaps as far southwest as northeast NM. Initial storms will form
in a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse
rates contributing to moderate instability. Initially marginal
deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into
Tuesday evening, with the environment becoming supportive of
high-based supercells capable of severe wind gusts and large hail.
There is some model suggestion that the initial high-based storms
may evolve into an MCS that progresses from central NE and northern
KS through the mid MO Valley Tuesday night. Given the strongly
unstable air mass forecast along the path of the MCS, the potential
would exist for a substantial damaging wind event, including the
possibility of intense wind gusts. Confidence in that scenario is
low, which precludes the addition of higher unconditional
probabilities. However, a conditional intensity group one has been
added to acknowledge the potential magnitude of such an event.
...Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley...
A moderate to strongly unstable air mass is expected to develop
Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a diffuse warm front or
quasi-stationary boundary oriented northwest-to-southeast across the
region. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher
unconditional severe probabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for
large hail and damaging wind gusts will exists with any storms that
can become sustained in that thermodynamic environment.
..Mead.. 06/08/2026
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