Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado will be possible across parts of the Southeast into the
southern Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a mature cyclone centered over
the western MN/IA border vicinity. A shortwave trough is moving over
the Ozarks within the base of this cyclone. This shortwave is
forecast to pivot quickly northeastward then northward through the
OH Valley and Upper Great Lakes. Another, lower amplitude shortwave
trough is currently progressing eastward through the Lower MS
Valley, with continued eastward/east-northeastward progress
anticipated today.

Recent surface analysis places the surface low associated with the
Upper Midwest cyclone over far northwest WI, with a cold front
arcing southeastward into far northeast IL then southward to another
low over far eastern LA. A moist airmass precedes this cold front,
with mid 60s dewpoints extending through western KY and low 60s
dewpoints as far north as eastern WI. Thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of this front as it moves eastward, with the highest
thunderstorm coverage from central/eastern KY across middle/eastern
TN into northern AL and GA.

...Northern AL/Middle TN into the southern Appalachians...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the
moist and broadly confluence warm sector from MS/AL northward into
IL/OH. Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue within this
region of confluent while also developing along the front. Buoyancy
will be tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, but
ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg.
Moderate vertical shear will be in place as well, with much of this
shear confined below 700 mb. 

Given the moderate to strong low-level shear, this modified tropical
airmass appears supportive of a low-probability tornado risk with
thunderstorms along the cold front and within the prefrontal
confluence zone. Primary limiting factor will be the confined
updraft duration and strength resulting from poor lapse rates and
associated low buoyancy. Even with this limiting factor, a few
storms could briefly achieve the depth and duration need to produce
a brief tornado, particularly from northeast AL across northern GA
where stronger southeasterly surface wind are possible. A few
convectively aided damaging gusts could occur across the region as
well.

..Mosier/Moore.. 11/04/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two
will be possible across parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast...
Moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft is present over the southeast
states today, with water vapor imagery showing a pronounced
shortwave trough over MS/AL.  As this trough translates eastward
today, scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of AL/GA/SC and
east TN.  Two regimes appear to pose a risk of isolated
strong/severe storms later today.

The first area is along the primary cold front over eastern AL and
western GA.  Most recent CAM solutions suggest scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the front by mid-afternoon, with at
least pockets of heating occurring out ahead.  A few supercells are
possible.  Forecast soundings show weakening low-level winds and
some veering in areas of better heating.  This may tend to reduce
the tornado risk, but the strongest cells could be capable of
locally damaging wind gusts.

Another area of concern will stretch from central/northeast GA into
upstate SC later today.  Low-level winds will remain backed and
moderately strong in this area, leading to favorable shear profiles
for a tornado or two in the more persistent storms.

..Hart/Smith.. 11/04/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the
central/southern Plains early Thursday will pivot eastward, becoming
oriented from the Great Lakes to the TN Valley by early Friday. A
belt of enhanced southwesterly midlevel flow will extend from the
southern Plains to the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. However,
this stronger flow will mainly be focused behind a surface cold
front that will slowly progress eastward across the Appalachians.
Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place, supporting
widespread cloud cover within the warm advection regime from GA to
southern New England. This will limit stronger destabilization, but
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, though severe
potential will remain unlikely.

Elsewhere, a southern vorticity max will move across OK near the
tail end of the larger-scale eastern trough. Strong cooling aloft
will support elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms during
the day. Late-night elevated thunderstorms may also occur over Deep
South TX, as a cold front undercuts a moist air mass.

..Leitman.. 11/04/2026