No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 18 06:04:01 UTC 2026.MD 0094 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeast North Dakota into northern
Minnesota
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 180408Z - 180815Z
SUMMARY...A wintry mix should continue to develop ahead of an
approaching precipitation band near the Canadian border. The best
chance for heavy snow (perhaps 1 inch/hour rates) will be across far
northeastern ND and northeastern MN tonight, especially after 06Z.
DISCUSSION...A 986 mb surface low over eastern SD should continue to
drift northward toward the Upper MS Valley and deepen further with
the eastward progression of a negatively tilted mid-level trough. As
this occurs, continued 850-700 mb warm air/moisture advection will
continue to fortify a primarily zonal arching band of mixed
precipitation, which should continue to steadily lift northward with
time. KMVX dual-polarimetric radar data depicts a likely mix of snow
and sleet just above the surface within the core of the
precipitation band. Meanwhile, surface observations depict snow as
the main precipitation type along the northern periphery of the
band. Strong easterly Surface-850 mb cold-air advection is underway
across northeastern MN, and this should support dynamic cooling of
the column along and just south of the Canadian border through
tonight. Furthermore, wet-bulb temperatures are at or below the
freezing mark to the south of 0C observed temperatures, suggesting
that latent cooling from precipitation may also contribute to
low-level tropospheric cooling.
Cold-air advection is and should remain strongest across
northeastern MN, where the best chance for heavy snow exists. Heavy
snow may also develop across portions of far northeastern ND. In
both areas, 1 inch/hr snowfall rates may occur, especially after 06Z
based on mesoanalysis/HRRR trends, which is in rough agreement with
00Z HREF ensemble probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 02/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 49059629 49009503 48829452 48709390 48669317 48569264
48289169 48239082 48118989 48048952 47898963 47609052
47149124 46909174 47009252 47539438 47989626 48149868
48210000 48450026 48710030 48910026 49019994 49059942
49049833 49059629
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts
of the West Coast, southern Great Basin, central Rockies, and the
lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated.
...Discussion...
A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS Wednesday
morning through late Thursday. Across the western US, a trough will
gradually shift across the Great Basin with enhanced mid-level flow
overspreading the Desert Southwest into the central/southern High
Plains. Forcing for ascent and cooling temperatures aloft will bring
scattered thunderstorm activity across the central California coast
to the Oregon/Washington Coast. Additional thunderstorm development
will be possible across the southern Great Basin into the central
Rockies. Generally weak thermal profiles will limit severe potential
with this activity.
A secondary trough will continue to shift northeast across the Great
Lakes Region. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
along an eastward moving front within a narrow region of warm air
advection. Given the generally narrow/weak region of marginal
instability, activity is this region is expected to remain
sub-severe.
..Thornton/Squitieri.. 02/18/2026
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early
evening.
...Discussion...
There remains notable spread evident in the latest model output
concerning a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic developments within
the evolving pattern across North America through this period. In
general, though, guidance continues to indicate that larger-scale
mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift inland of the Pacific
coast Thursday through Thursday night, while being maintained
downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley,
and slowly developing toward the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians
vicinity. As this occurs, the center of a mid-level subtropical
ridge is likely to shift from the southern Gulf Basin into the
Bahamas/Caribbean, with its northern periphery maintaining an
influence across parts of the Southeast.
A couple of initially lower amplitude short wave perturbations,
within a seasonably strong belt of flow emerging from the Southwest,
may be in the process of progressing into and across the central
Great Plains toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys at
the outset of the period. The lead perturbation, probably
accompanied by a 500 mb speed maximum of 90-100+ kts, is forecast to
continue into and across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, as
the trailing one pivots northeastward and perhaps intensifies across
the middle Mississippi Valley toward southern Great Lakes region
later Thursday through Thursday night.
Associated with these developments, a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone is
forecast to migrate across and northeast of the lower Missouri
Valley during the day, perhaps slowly deepening, before continuing
toward the upper Great Lakes accompanied by more substantive
deepening Thursday night.
...Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley...
It appears that warming aloft, associated with subsidence to the
south of the trailing mid/upper jet, will tend to eventually
overspread the better (but still relatively modest) low-level
moisture return to the evolving warm sector across the lower Ohio
Valley. However, to still differing degrees, the latest runs of the
various model output indicate a window of opportunity for strong to
severe thunderstorm development, perhaps beginning by early
afternoon, aided by daytime heating and subtle mid-level
cooling/forcing for ascent accompanying the lead jet streak.
The consensus of latest guidance, supported by the High Resolution
Ensemble and related machine learning output, suggests that this may
initiate across portions of Illinois, near or to the north and east
of the Greater St. Louis area, with strongest activity tending to
develop eastward and perhaps peak while spreading across east
central and portions of southeastern Illinois through portions of
central and southern Indiana by early Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings across this corridor remain generally
characterized by at least modest convective instability, and CAPE on
the order of 500-750+ J/kg, in the presence of strong deep-layer
shear. Sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, beneath
40-50+ kt south to southwest flow in the 850-700 mb layer, may
promote supercells capable of producing severe hail and a few
tornadoes, and activity may eventually grow upscale enough to
support increasing potential for damaging wind gusts before
convection wanes late Thursday evening.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
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