Mesoscale Discussion 0669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Areas affected...parts of central/southeastern Louisiana and
southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 081410Z - 081645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm activity, including cells
occasionally becoming capable of producing large hail, is possible
into midday. It is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed,
but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Based on latest Rapid Refresh output, ongoing vigorous
thunderstorm development is focused along the leading of low-level
moisture return, beneath a zone of stronger lower/mid-tropopheric
warm advection (particularly around 700 mb), which appears to
demarcate the northern periphery of warmer and more strongly capping
elevated mixed-layer air.  This is based above/to the cool side of a
stalled weakening frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf coast
region.
Supporting thermodynamic profiles are probably characterized by a
loaded-gun type structure similar to that sampled in the 12Z
sounding from Slidell, LA, including sizable CAPE within and above
the mixed-phase layer, in the presence of strong cloud-bearing layer
shear.

At this time, it remains unclear how long stronger cells capable of
producing at least large hail will persist, as the Rapid Refresh
suggests modest further strengthening of southwesterly flow and warm
advection around 700 mb across the region through 18Z.  Convection
is already show signs of substantive upscale growth.  However, it is
possible that strong convective cells capable of producing large
hail may be maintained along the southern periphery of this activity
across central Louisiana through southern Mississippi several more
hours.  It might not be out of the question that stronger surface
gusts may eventually become more common near activity, but this
remains more uncertain.

..Kerr/Smith.. 05/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31019348 31929198 31358851 30338943 30749126 31019234
            31019348 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More
sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible
across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Central Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over western KS
tracking southeastward.  Full sunshine will lead to strong
heating/destabilization ahead of the associated cold front over
eastern KS and much of OK.  Dewpoints in the 50s, coupled with steep
low/mid level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and the development of scattered thunderstorms along
the front.  These storms will track southeastward through the
evening across much of OK and into north TX.  Forecast soundings
indicate favorable vertical shear profiles for supercell structures
capable of large hail.  

Eventual upscale organization into linear/bowing structures will aid
in a risk of damaging winds as storms persist into the overnight
period across the ArkLaTex.  While the overall severe threat should
diminish by this time, storms may occasionally result in damaging
wind gusts and hail.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL.  Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected.  Gusty winds are the primary concern.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/08/2026