Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the
central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be
likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest
into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe
thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger
forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability
over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support
will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection
into the Plains.

Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper
troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper
flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A
relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the
CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also
supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.