WW 124 TORNADO IL MO 152350Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
650 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
West Central Illinois
Northeast and Central Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday night from 650 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered intense thunderstorms over western Missouri will
track eastward across the watch area through the evening. Locally
damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are the main
concerns.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles north northeast of Quincy IL
to 50 miles south southwest of Fort Leonard Wood MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 119...WW 120...WW
121...WW 122...WW 123...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Hart
WW 123 SEVERE TSTM TX 152145Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
445 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western North Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 445 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered intense thunderstorms are affecting parts of
western North Texas this afternoon in a very unstable air mass. A
few supercells capable of large hail and locally damaging winds are
the main concern.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles south southeast
of Abilene TX to 145 miles northeast of Abilene TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 119...WW 120...WW
121...WW 122...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Hart
WW 122 TORNADO IA IL KS MO 152035Z - 160200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
South-Central and Eastern Iowa
Far Northwest Illinois
Far Eastern Kansas
Northern and West-Central Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 335 PM
until 900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Supercells should pose a threat for mainly large to very
large hail initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). With time,
upscale growth into one or more clusters should result in a greater
threat for scattered severe/damaging winds as thunderstorms move
eastward this evening. A couple of tornadoes also appear possible,
especially with any cells that can remain at least semi-discrete
into the evening hours.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Dubuque IA
to 55 miles south southeast of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 119...WW 120...WW 121...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
...Gleason
WW 121 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 151930Z - 160200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Northwest Arkansas
Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri
Central and Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM
until 900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Supercells should pose a threat for mainly large hail
initially, with peak hailstones up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter.
Scattered damaging winds will be possible with any thunderstorms
that can form into one or more clusters through the evening. The
threat for a couple of tornadoes should also gradually increase this
evening, especially for any convection that can remain at least
semi-discrete.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Joplin MO to 35 miles
south southwest of Ardmore OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 119...WW 120...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.
...Gleason
WW 120 SEVERE TSTM MI OH PA LE 151855Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Lower Michigan
Northern Ohio
Northwest Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM
until 900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A mix of clusters and supercells should pose a threat for
scattered damaging winds and large hail as they spread quickly
east-northeastward this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two may
also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest
of Toledo OH to 20 miles north northeast of Franklin PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 119...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26040.
...Gleason
WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0124 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 123
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BGS TO
35 N ABI TO 30 SSW SPS TO 15 NW SPS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
..THOMPSON..04/15/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 123
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC009-059-077-097-133-237-253-337-353-363-417-429-441-447-485-
497-503-160040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER CALLAHAN CLAY
COOKE EASTLAND JACK
JONES MONTAGUE NOLAN
PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA
WISE YOUNG
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CNU
TO 30 ENE MKC TO 10 SW OXV TO 10 W DSM.
..LYONS..04/15/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC085-161-160040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND
IAC007-011-019-031-045-051-055-057-061-087-095-097-099-101-103-
105-107-111-113-115-117-123-125-127-135-139-153-157-163-171-177-
179-183-185-160040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE BENTON BUCHANAN
CEDAR CLINTON DAVIS
DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE
HENRY IOWA JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LEE
LINN LOUISA LUCAS
MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL
MONROE MUSCATINE POLK
POWESHIEK SCOTT TAMA
WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SPS TO
35 N ADM TO 15 SSW CQB TO 25 N OKC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
..THOMPSON..04/15/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 121
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-160040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
KSC001-011-021-037-099-125-133-205-160040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON
MOC009-011-015-039-043-057-077-085-097-109-119-145-167-185-209-
217-160040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WW 0120 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 120
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CAK
TO 25 SW ERI TO 35 NNW ERI.
..LYONS..04/15/26
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...CLE...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 120
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC029-075-083-099-133-151-153-155-169-160040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIANA HOLMES KNOX
MAHONING PORTAGE STARK
SUMMIT TRUMBULL WAYNE
PAC031-039-049-053-065-073-085-121-160040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE
FOREST JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
MERCER VENANGO
LEZ149-169-160040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WW 0119 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 119
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W SDA TO
15 SE SUX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
..WEINMAN..04/15/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 119
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-013-015-017-023-025-027-047-049-069-073-075-077-079-083-
085-091-099-127-129-133-153-155-157-161-165-169-171-187-197-
152140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BLACK HAWK BOONE
BREMER BUTLER CALHOUN
CARROLL CRAWFORD DALLAS
FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY
GUTHRIE HAMILTON HARDIN
HARRISON HUMBOLDT JASPER
MARSHALL MILLS MONONA
POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK
SAC SHELBY STORY
TAMA WEBSTER WRIGHT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0457 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123... FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0457
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Areas affected...North and central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123...
Valid 152318Z - 160045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123
continues.
SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated wind damage threat will continue
with storm clusters/supercells across north Texas, and additional
cluster development is possible into central Texas (where an
extension in area might need to be considered).
DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing in clusters with some embedded
supercells along a conglomerate outflow from Stephens into Jack Cos.
These storms are in the corridor of greatest buoyancy now, with
gradual buoyancy decrease with eastward extent as a result of
thicker cloud cover. A continuation of MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg
with relatively long/straight hodographs will support supercells
with large hail and isolated wind damage in a cluster-type mode for
the next couple of hours, given the more SW-NE orientation of the
dryline and storm-scale outflows. The new updraft development
farther southwest to near SJT could necessitate an extension to
roughly Tom Green and Concho Cos. in the next 30 minutes.
..Thompson.. 04/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 33459874 33929777 33769693 33439710 32699832 31769926
31209987 30920059 31110077 31620034 33149915 33459874
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 0456 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 122... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Areas affected...portions of central and northern Missouri into
central and eastern Iowa into far western Illinois
Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...
Valid 152315Z - 160115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Tornado Watch 122. Hail
and damaging winds are likely. A couple tornadoes also remain
possible. A downstream WW could be needed later this evening, though
storm longevity is unclear.
DISCUSSION...Across WW122, several clusters of severe supercells
have emerged early this evening, one northeast of the KC Metro and
another broader cluster into central IA. Numerous reports of severe
hail have occurred with these storms thus far. The environment
continues to be favorable for supercells and large hail with
moderate buoyancy and 50 kt of deep-layer shear.
Some clustering has already been noted, and is likely to continue.
Additional development has been noted behind these initial storms as
the cold front has overtaken the dryline. With expected upscale
growth (supported by radar trends and recent CAMS) a greater risk
for damaging winds may evolve with a line/cluster over the next
couple of hours across central and northern MO.
While low-level shear is modest, at least some risk for a couple of
tornadoes remains possible. A slight increase in low-level hodograph
size this evening across northern MO and southeast IA could support
somewhat better tornado chances (in addition to damaging gusts) if
an established line or bow with organized mesovorticies evolves.
However, this is uncertain.
Given the broadly favorable environment, the severe risk will
continue across WW122. Downstream, the loss of diurnal heating casts
significant uncertainty on storm longevity later this evening. Some
severe risk may persist, and a downstream watch appears possible.
..Lyons.. 04/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...
EAX...
LAT...LON 38049391 38269447 39049457 40819366 41679312 41729305
42539162 42629079 42548964 42398935 41958947 41288983
39179118 38379225 38099310 38049315 38009334 38049391
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
MD 0455 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 121... FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Areas affected...South central Oklahoma into southwest Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...
Valid 152256Z - 160030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121 continues.
SUMMARY...Occasional large hail will be the main threat, though an
isolated tornado or two remain possible.
DISCUSSION...Severe storms are ongoing from extreme northeast OK
into southwest MO, with new storm development occurring a couple of
counties to the south near the northwest corner of AR. Farther
southwest, extensive anvil cirrus has overspread much of
southern/central OK east of the dryline, where mesonet observations
show surface temperature decreases of 3-6 F the past few hours.
Similarly, persistent clouds farther east have also limited surface
temperatures into the low-mid 70s, though forecast soundings suggest
the environment is not strongly capped.
Regional VWPs show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells,
though hodographs remain relatively straight with only modest
low-level curvature. A modest increase in low-level shear this
evening could still support an isolated tornado threat, but the
messy convective modes and sub-optimal distribution of clouds casts
doubt on the persistence and magnitude of the tornado threat. A
small patch of surface heating in northern OK could support
additional storm development, with a more E-W orientation to that
part of the boundary suggesting a likelihood of storm interactions
and a cluster mode (if additional storms form). Overall, if present
trends continue a sizable portion of the tornado watch could be
cancelled for central OK by 23-00z.
..Thompson.. 04/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 36559366 35799456 34679580 33969681 33939746 34149801
34839797 36159758 36659698 37149576 38019453 38359363
38429309 37589309 36559366
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across
parts of the southern/central Plains into the Midwest/Ohio Valley
and southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
...20Z Update...
...Mid MS Valley through the Ozarks into the Southern Plains...
Recent surface analysis places a low in the NE/IA/MO border
intersection vicinity, with a dry line extending southwestward from
this low through eastern KS, western OK, and northwest TX. As
mentioned in MCD #448, the elevated supercell ongoing across central
IA could begin to interact with an environment more supportive of
surface-based storms. If a transition to surface-based is realized,
an increased potential for damaging gusts and a tornado will exist.
New development is also beginning across central IA, along the
outflow extending southwestward for this supercell. Hail remains the
primary risk across the region, both with the ongoing supercell and
any new development along its outflow.
Increasing thunderstorm coverage is still expected tonight along the
dryline as it shifts eastward, beginning across northwest TX and
central OK now before expanding northward into MO, and potentially
southwestward into more of southwest TX later. Large hail remains
the primary threat with this initially more cellular activity. Some
very large hail (i.e. 2"+ in diameter) is possible. Over time,
storm interactions and/or upscale growth is anticipated, with a
trend towards a threat for more damaging gusts. Tornado threat
remains low, largely due weakness in the low to mid-level flow and
convective mode issues. However, some modest strengthening of the
low-level flow should exist this afternoon and evening from eastern
OK into the mid MS Valley, supporting a threat for a few tornadoes
with both supercells and embedded within clusters.
...OH Valley...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #120 is currently ongoing from far
southeast Lower MI across northern OH into far northwest PA. Here, a
mix of clusters and supercells pose a threat for scattered damaging
winds and large hail as they spread quickly east-northeastward this
afternoon and evening. A tornado or two is also possible.
..Mosier.. 04/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
Severe potential across the broad warm sector will be complicated by
ongoing thunderstorms/MCVs and associated cloud cover. A neutral to
positively tilted upper trough will eject northeastward across the
southern/central Plains today, with a broad zone of enhanced
mid-level southwesterly winds extending over much of TX/OK into the
Midwest/OH Valley and Great Lakes. At the surface, a weak low over
southeast NE late this morning is forecast to develop slowly
northeastward across IA through the afternoon and evening, with a
quasi-stationary front extending northeastward from this low towards
southern WI/Lower MI. A dryline extends southward across KS/OK into
west TX. Multiple MCVs related to ongoing/earlier convection are
also noted in recent visible satellite/radar imagery, and these
features may aid additional convective development this afternoon.
...Iowa into Missouri...
Forcing for ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough will
overspread the front draped across IA this afternoon. Ongoing
supercell in western IA and cloudiness near the front late this
morning cast some uncertainty on the degree of destabilization that
will occur this afternoon, and the overall intensity of convection.
Still, expectations are for additional robust thunderstorms to
eventually develop by 19-21Z along/near the front in IA, with steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on the observed 12Z TOP sounding
supporting moderate to locally strong MLCAPE even if
clouds/precipitation hinder daytime heating to some extent. Various
NAM/RAP forecast soundings show elongated/nearly straight hodographs
at mid/upper levels and 50+ kt of deep-layer shear, which will be
favorable for upper-level/anvil venting and hail production with any
supercells that form. Large to very large hail will be a concern
with initially discrete convection. But, some tendency for
clustering and movement north of the surface front casts
considerable uncertainty on the wind/tornado potential. Even so,
some chance for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may
exist along/south of the front across IA into MO with any convection
that can develop east of the dryline.
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley...
A seasonably moist low-level airmass remains in place across the
southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley, with observed 12Z
soundings from FWD/OUN/SGF indicating mean mixing ratios ranging
12-13.6 g/kg. However, even with steep mid-level lapse rates noted
across TX/OK, profiles are fairly saturated at mid/upper levels, and
plentiful cloud cover is present in recent visible satellite imagery
across these regions. It still appears likely that surface-based
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon (around 19-21Z) along/east
of the dryline as MLCIN gradually erodes ahead of the ejecting upper
trough. But, overall evolution remains somewhat unclear, with
potential for messy storm modes/interactions fairly early in the
convective life cycle given a large degree of boundary-parallel flow
in low/mid levels. Initial supercells should pose a threat for
mainly large to very large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter),
before clustering and an increase in damaging wind potential occurs.
The tornado threat is less clear, as stronger low-level flow will
tend to remain focused farther north into the Midwest. Still,
sufficient low-level shear should exist this afternoon and evening
to support a threat for a few tornadoes with both supercells and
embedded within clusters.
...Midwest/Ohio Valley into Western Pennsylvania...
An MCV evident over eastern IL/western IN will continue to track
eastward into northern IN and eventually OH this afternoon and
evening. Ongoing thunderstorms associated with this MCV have
remained sub-severe through much of the morning. But, gradual
destabilization of the already moist low-level airmass downstream
should support some uptick in convective coverage and intensity
across the OH Valley by mid to late afternoon. Localized enhancement
to the west-southwesterly low-level winds should focus across parts
of northern OH and vicinity, where somewhat greater low-level shear
and tornado potential may exist. Strong deep-layer shear will easily
support organized convection, including the potential for supercells
with a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes. Additional thunderstorms may eventually develop
eastward from the mid MS Valley into IL/IN in association with
another MCV. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two may
also occur with this activity, if it develops.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. A few tornadoes, possibly strong, very
large hail, and damaging winds will be possible.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains on
Friday, with primary midlevel speed max intensifying from the
central Plains into the upper MS Valley. A southern stream system
will also intensify the upper-wind pattern from northern Mexico into
the southern Plains.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from MN into KS
Friday morning, progressing roughly to a WI to central MO to
northern OK line by 00Z. Meanwhile, a warm front will push north
into WI, extending southeastward near Chicago.
Of particular note for this setup are model trends, which have
consistently shown the cold front pushing farther east and south
than the previous model runs. This results in a lower confidence
forecast in terms of the precise area of greatest threat and degree
of tornado potential.
Despite these uncertainties, the environment ahead of the cold front
will be quite favorable for supercells, with steep midlevel lapse
rates, ample shear, and strong instability. These factors will
clearly favor very large damaging hail, a risk of tornadoes, and
eventually damaging winds. A broad 40-50 kt low-level jet will
contribute to favorable low-level shear for tornadoes, and a couple
strong tornadoes will be possible prior to the cold front and
aggregate outflows undercutting the initial activity. Favored areas
for tornadoes will be southern KS into western/northern OK in
proximity to the dryline, and farther north into eastern IA and
southern WI where SRH will be stronger near the low.
Even if the cold front surges faster than currently indicated, a
widespread damaging wind threat could occur. Trends will continue to
be monitored as the event nears.
..Jewell.. 04/15/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...Central/southern High Plains...
Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced across eastern
CO into portions of the southern High Plains. Sustained
southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) amid 10-15
percent RH (single digits locally) are expected atop very dry and
receptive fuels, increasing critical fire weather concerns. While
high clouds are anticipated later in the afternoon, ongoing poor
humidity recoveries and dry/breezy conditions on Day 1/Wednesday
will promote an earlier start to the fire environment on Day
2/Thursday. Farther north, Elevated highlights have been expanded to
encompass much of the High Plains. Widespread south/southwesterly
winds of up to 20 mph and RH of 15-20 percent will overspread a
region of 80th-95th percentile ERCs. An abrupt northerly wind shift
is expected as a sharp cold front progresses southeastward in the
early evening, potentially impacting active fires. However, chances
for light precipitation, colder temperatures, and increasing RH will
provide relief to the fire environment overnight for much of the
central High Plains.
...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont...
Elevated highlights have been trimmed to only include areas east of
the Appalachian Mountains as latest model guidance suggests higher
RH trends Thursday afternoon in the eastern TN Valley. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track as multiple days of above normal
temperatures and dry/breezy conditions have contributed to very dry
fuels with widespread 90th-99th percentile ERCs. Southwesterly winds
of 10 mph or greater (gusts of 20+ mph) and 25-35 percent RH will
support elevated fire weather concerns across the region.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will dig into the southern Great Basin/Four
Corners on Thursday. A modest subtropical jet stream will develop
across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
strong low pressure system will deepen in the vicinity of the Black
Hills. A fairly strong cold front will progress southward into the
central Plains.
...Southern New Mexico into central High Plains...
This region will generally exist in between the developing southern
stream jet and the digging trough to the northwest for most of the
period. Some increase in mid-level winds may occur by late
afternoon, however. A very dry airmass is expected. RH could
approach single digits locally, but will more broadly be 10-20%.
This is forecast despite increasing mid/upper clouds with time. The
overall expectation is for elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions. Sustained critical could occur locally, but confidence
highlighting where this will occur remains low.
...Far eastern Wyoming into Nebraska/South Dakota...
As the surface low deepens, winds of 15-20 mph will be possible. RH
values of 10-20% will occur during the afternoon. The strongest
mid-level flow will generally remain farther west of the region
which should limit the potential for sustained critical conditions.
Further, the cold front is forecast to progress southward which will
lead to a stark shift to northerly winds and greater RH. Given the
strength of the front, the more southern frontal solutions have been
weighted higher in this forecast.
...Southern Appalachians into Mid-Atlantic...
The persistent dry return flow pattern will continue another day.
Temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s F will again promote a broad
area of reduced RH values during the afternoon. 25-35% will again be
common, but areas near 20% are still possible. Winds will still be
somewhat weak at 10-15 mph, but very dry fuels will still support a
elevated fire weather threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
On Day 3/Friday, an amplifying trough will move into the central
U.S. as an associated mid-level speed max will intensify over the
central Plains. Tightening surface pressure gradients and a strong
cold front will promote a concentrated fire weather threat over the
southern Plains. Across the eastern U.S., a shortwave impulse will
aid in the upper ridge breakdown as the aforementioned trough
traverses the Midwest. As above normal temperatures prevail,
exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated winds will pose a
lingering fire weather threat throughout the East through the
weekend. Temporary ridging builds across the West on Day 4/Saturday
as post-frontal surface flow drives a dry and breezy airmass across
much of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest. On Day
5/Sunday-Day 6/Monday, the upper ridge slides east of the Rockies as
the upper trough exits eastern CONUS, promoting dry return flow over
the Plains and post frontal winds in the Southeast. Towards the end
of the forecast period, another deep trough is forecast to approach
western CONUS. While model discrepancy exists in the extended, fire
weather concerns will likely continue next week in regions that have
seen minimal precipitation.
...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains - Day 3/Friday through
Day 5/Sunday...
An amplified upper-level trough approaches the central CONUS on Day
3/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak and deepening lee
surface troughing across the central Plains will aid in strong
west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. 70% Critical
probabilities have been trimmed slightly to account for quicker cold
frontal progression than previously forecast. Combined probabilities
of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph winds ahead of
the front should maintain a critical fire weather threat. An abrupt
wind shift of gusty northerly winds behind the aforementioned cold
front has the potential to impact any new or ongoing wildfires
through the evening hours.
On Day 4/Saturday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may
arise in a dry post-frontal airmass, though uncertainty in frontal
timing and overlap of stronger winds and lower RH precludes the
introduction of probabilities at this time. As the amplified upper
trough exits the region on Day 5/Sunday, surface troughing across
High Plains and surface high pressure centered over east TX will
promote dry return flow for much of the region. Given the overall
pattern and ensemble guidance agreement in low RH and stronger
winds, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained.
...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont/Southeast - Day 3/Friday through Day
5/Sunday...
As the East Coast upper ridge breaks down on Day 3/Friday, the
potential for a downslope wind event exists in the lee of the
Appalachians. West/northwesterly winds will traverse the Blue Ridge
Mountains allowing for surface RH to drop as surface winds increase
along the Piedmont, resulting in a continuation of 40% Critical
probabilities. On Day 4/Saturday, dry southwesterly flow returns to
the Piedmont and broader Southeast as the surface low enters
southern Ontario. With no expected precipitation across the region,
40% Critical probabilities have been maintained where dry and breezy
conditions continue atop exceptionally dry fuels. Chances for
precipitation increase on Day 5/Sunday as the upper trough moves
overhead, which could alleviate broader fire concerns. However, the
extent of wetting rainfall is uncertain, precluding the introduction
of probabilities at this time. On Day 6/Monday, post-frontal
northeasterly flow may increase fire weather concerns across the
Southeast as drought conditions worsen. However, uncertainty in
precipitation chances along the front on Day 5/Sunday preclude the
introduction of probabilities at this time.
As a secondary upper trough develops over the western U.S. on Day
6/Monday-Day 7/Tuesday, subsequent dry southerly flow over parts of
the Southwest and lee surface troughing across the High Plains will
continue broader fire weather concerns towards the end of the
forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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