Mesoscale Discussion 0827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Texas...the Texas Panhandle and
far southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 222009Z - 222215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is likely over the next several
hours across portions of far eastern NM and West TX. A mix of multi
cells and transient supercells may pose a risk for damaging winds
and hail. A WW is possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, regional visible imagery showed a
building cumulus field across portions of far eastern NM, West TX
and the southern TX Panhandle. Towers within this cu field have
steadily deepened  indicating erosion of remaining inhibition
shortly. Amid strong diurnal heating and weak ascent from a
subtropical disturbance aloft, area RAP and Observed AMA soundings
show surface temperatures now warming into the upper 80s to low 90s
F, which will exceed convective temperature in the next couple of
hours. This should support scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon.

While a gradient in surface dewpoints is evident in area obs, steep
low and mid-level lapse rates are supporting sufficient buoyancy
(1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) for strong updrafts. Deep-layer shear is
not overly large, generally 20-30 kt. This suggests a mixed mode of
multi cell clusters and transient supercells. Hail will be possible
with the stronger storms. Numerous storm interactions and the modest
low-level moisture favoring stronger downdrafts and cold pool
development should also result in fairly rapid upscale growth into
one or more clusters or an MCS. Thus, the risk for damaging winds is
also possible, and expected to increase with time.

Current expectations are for storms to develop withing the warmer
and more well-mixed air mass over West TX and the southern Panhandle
before expanding in coverage farther east. Additional CI remains
possible along the southward moving cold front farther north.
However, this has become less certain in recent CAM runs. The severe
risk should gradually increase this afternoon and evening with a WW
possible in the next couple of hours.

..Lyons/Hart.. 05/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33170221 34080303 35660128 35729976 34819947 34439941
            33169947 32609951 31539963 31160007 30890080 30800162
            31080186 31530183 32640199 33170221 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible late
this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern High
Plains.  A few brief tornadoes are also possible across the Mid
South.

...20z Update...

Only minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk across southwest Kansas based on the current location of the
surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorms will increase across the
southern High Plains late this afternoon into this evening, posing a
risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. 

Across the TN Valley vicinity, sporadic rotating storms may persist
another couple of hours and a brief tornado is possible. However,
the 30-40 kt low-level jet will continue to shift northward with
time and away from the axis of stronger instability. Otherwise,
sporadic gusty winds are possible through evening. For more short
term details, reference MCDs 825 and 826.

..Leitman.. 05/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026/

...TX/OK...
A weak upper trough is moving across CO today, with the tail end of
large scale forcing spreading across the TX Panhandle.  At the
surface, southeasterly winds will maintain a moist air mass into the
region, where a dryline will become the focus for afternoon
thunderstorm development.  Weak mid-level winds of 20-30 knots
suggest that storms will be a mix of multicell and supercell
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds.  Merging
outflows are expected as activity spreads eastward into western OK
and eventually north TX tonight, with a continued risk of locally
damaging winds.

...Northeast NE/KS/Northwest OK...
A cold front is sagging southeastward into KS/NE, where a moist and
moderately unstable air mass will be present this afternoon. 
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the front, with
a low-end risk of hail in the stronger cells.

...TN/MS/AL/GA...
A broad area of moderately strong southerly low-level winds are
present today over parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, along with
a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the 70s.  Forecast soundings
show rather weak CAPE, but sufficient low-level shear for some
concern for tornadoes today.  There have been occasional
mesocyclones in the thunderstorms in this region, and that will
likely continue through the afternoon as the low-level jet shifts
northward into northern AL/middle TN.  Overall confidence in the
tornado threat suggests the threat remains Marginal, but a tactical
upgrade to portions of the area remains possible this afternoon.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS
OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible on
Saturday from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles and southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional
severe thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia
and parts of the Upper Ohio Valley.

...Southern High Plains...
Moderate mid-level flow across the central Rockies will persist in
the wake of a shortwave trough lifting into the northern Plains.
Flow will generally weaken with southern extent into the High
Plains. Even so, moist southeasterly winds into the higher terrain
will promote effective shear around 35 kt. The main question will be
the quality of the moisture with convection expected to impact parts
of the region on Friday evening into the overnight. The most likely
scenario is that isolated storm development occur within the Raton
Mesa and evolves eastward/southeastward. Storms would be initially
supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Shear does weaken
to the east so some clustering is possible as outflow interact.
Another possibility, though more uncertain, is that convection could
develop farther southeast along a remnant outflow boundary, but this
activity would likely move into an environment with weaker shear
quickly.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
A shortwave trough now in the Mid-South will lift northeast into the
Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Saturday. A modest surface low, though
slowly weakening with time, will pull upper 60s F dewpoints into
parts of the region. Morning precipitation is expected to clear out
and allow for at least filtered surface heating. The enhanced 850 mb
winds, proximity to the warm front, and modest effective shear
(around 30 kt) could potentially support a stronger storm or two.
Though conditional, a brief tornado would be possible in this
environment.

...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak shortwave trough will move into Georgia. Low 70s F dewpoints
and temperatures in the 80s F will support 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous storms
appear possible near the shortwave as well as along the wedge front
in South Carolina. Shear will be weak, but a few water-loaded
downbursts may produce damaging winds.

...Hill Country/South Texas/Middle Texas Coast...
A shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will approach the
region during the afternoon/early evening. A very moist (70+
dewpoints) airmass will be in place. Isolated to widely scattered
convection will be possible from the Rio Grande vicinity and perhaps
along the Gulf Breeze front. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and steep
low/mid-level lapse rates will support the threat of large hail and
severe winds.

..Wendt.. 05/22/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the
southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio
Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska
into southwest Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level flow ill become more quasi-zonal on Sunday across the
northern tier of the CONUS. Flow for central/southern portions of
the U.S. will be much weaker. A surface low within the Canadian
Prairie will develop ahead of the stronger shortwave trough off the
Northwest coast. This feature will draw at least modest moisture
northward into the central and parts of the northern Plains.

...Nebraska into Minnesota...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible along a relatively
weak surface trough/theta-e gradient. Forcing for ascent will not be
that strong as the modest trough slides east of the region through
the day. However, temperatures in the mid/upper 80s F may be
sufficient along with the weak surface convergence to initiate
storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively long hodographs, and
30-40 kt of northwesterly shear would suggest large hail potential.
The boundary layer will also be well mixed so severe wind gusts will
also be possible.

..Wendt.. 05/22/2026