Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous
United States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale trough
over the West.  A lead shortwave disturbance over the Dakotas will
move east into the Upper Great Lakes by late tonight.  Strengthening
low-level warm-air advection immediately ahead of a surface low will
favor scattered thunderstorms developing this evening over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes and moving into northern MI overnight. 
Although cloud-bearing shear will be strong, limited elevated
buoyancy will likely limit updraft strength and a corresponding
small hail risk with the strongest storms.  

Moist and moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout the eastern periphery of the western CONUS troughing,
aiding in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. 
Weak buoyancy should temper overall storm strength, although a
strong gust or two is possible.

..Smith/Guyer.. 10/12/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible over portions of the central and southern
Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night.
More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the
mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

...Central/Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...

An upper low and attendant trough will migrate east across the
Southwest on Tuesday, allowing a band of enhanced southwesterly
mid/upper flow to overspread the region. At the surface, a weak lee
low and surface trough will develop from western KS through far west
TX. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will extend from the Upper
Midwest southwestward through northern KS. This boundary will sag
south and east through the period. Southerly low-level flow across
the warm sector between these features will maintain mid 60s to low
70s F dewpoints across much of the southern Plains into KS and the
Lower MO Valley. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain
modest across the Plains, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s will
support moderate destabilization of the very moist airmass, with
MLCAPE of 1250-2000 J/kg common from parts of northwest TX into the
Lower MO Valley. 

Capping is expected to erode by mid to late afternoon, and isolated
to scattered convection is expected by 00z near the triple point and
northeast along the cold front into the Lower MO Valley. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough across
portions of western TX during the evening as a southwesterly
low-level jet strengthens. Vertically veering wind profiles and 40+
kt effective shear magnitudes will support initial supercells
capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Where
low-level SRH is maximized near the triple point and surface front,
a tornado or two also could occur. As the low-level jet increases
and expands northward overnight, additional thunderstorm development
is expected along and north of the surface front from the Lower MO
Valley into northern IL. This activity may tend to be elevated on
the cool side of the surface boundary and pose a risk for marginal
hail and gusty winds. If convection along the surface can maintain
near-surface based character, damaging wind potential could be
greater across parts of MO/IL, but this scenario is uncertain. 

...Western NY...

An upper shortwave trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes
to the Northeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer westerly flow will increase
across the Lower Great Lakes vicinity as this occurs, and a surface
low will spread eastward across the region. Ahead of an
eastward-developing cold front, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints
are forecast. While a moist airmass will reside across the region,
early day clouds and showers/thunderstorms will result in
questionable destabilization during the afternoon. If sufficient
destabilization can occur, a few strong thunderstorms could develop
within the moist and strongly sheared environment, posing a risk of
locally gusty winds.

..Leitman.. 10/12/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Northern Sacramento Valley...
Residual dry, post-frontal flow will continue across the northern
Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills although northerly wind
magnitude will be lower than yesterday. Sustained north winds of
10-15 mph with higher gusts and RH nearing 15% this afternoon will
promote a localized fire weather threat amid pockets of drier fuels
within an overall marginal fuelscape. The limited spatial extent of
enhanced winds and low RH precludes introduction of broader elevated
highlights for this outlook update.

Please see previous forecast discussion for additional details.

..Williams.. 10/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026/

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will migrate slowly southward across the
western Great Basin today, with strong southwesterly flow aloft
extending from the Southwest into the central Great Plains. Coupled
with a remnant subtropical moisture plume, this will continue to
favor chances for rainfall and higher elevation snowfall across much
of the Intermountain West and northern Plains, which will largely
suppress fire weather concerns across the West. Farther east, above
normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue across portions
of the lower Mississippi River Valley and Midwest, but the lack of a
stronger surface pressure gradient and resultant limited sustained
wind speeds are expected to largely temper fire weather concerns.

...Central High Plains...
Strong southwesterly flow aloft (50-60 kts at the nose of a
prominent 500 mb jet) will overspread the central Rockies/High
Plains today, aiding in modest strengthening of a lee surface low
across the central Plains. This will foster enhanced
west-southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph across portions of the
central High Plains from northeastern New Mexico into east-central
Colorado, western Kansas, and adjacent portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles. Downslope warming/drying will also aid in RH values
falling to 20-25% (locally to 15% across northeastern/east-central
Colorado, northwestern Kansas, and southwestern Nebraska). Given
these factors, locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely
to manifest this afternoon, but generally marginal fuel
receptiveness across this region precludes a broader fire weather
threat at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...