Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.

...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previously issued outlook.

..Smith.. 12/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/

...Synopsis...
16 UTC surface observations along the Gulf Coast show a stalling
frontal boundary draped from the MS Delta region to just off the TX
Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along
and north of this boundary as modest isentropic ascent within the
925-850 mb layer continues ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave
currently over the central Plains. The combination of diabatic
cooling and building surface high pressure to the north of the
boundary should keep the frontal boundary, and any surface-based
buoyancy, offshore through much of the forecast period. While
elevated thunderstorms will likely continue across the central Gulf
Coast region through the day and into tonight, buoyancy profiles
will remain too limited to support robust convection. Sporadic
lightning strikes are noted across the Texarkana region, but latest
forecast soundings suggest that EL levels should remain near or
below -20 C, which limits confidence in lightning production beyond
the next couple of hours.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast Friday.

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing over the eastern US is forecast to
continue Friday as several small-scale perturbations pass over the
Plains and Midwest. At the surface, a low will deepen over the
northern Rockies while a stalled front will remain in place along
the Gulf Coast. Behind the front, a cold and dry polar air mass will
largely preclude thunderstorm development over much of the US. The
exception will be along the central and northeastern Gulf Coast
where a few thunderstorms are possible early.

...Southern LA to the FL Panhandle...
Along the stalled front, a weak wave low is forecast to develop
across the northern Gulf ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave moving
out of the southern Plains. Convergence along the front and ahead of
this feature could allow the front to move inland a few miles Friday
morning. While not overly warm nor moist, modest destabilization
could support isolated elevated thunderstorms inland and closer to
the coast through midday. Strong flow aloft and backing along the
front could allow for a few transient rotating cells. This appears
most likely over parts of southern LA and the FL Big Bend where
storms closer to the front could potentiality be near surface-based
for a couple hours. However, given the weak buoyancy and few if any
surface-based storms inland for a longer duration, severe potential
remains too low for probabilities.

..Lyons.. 12/04/2025

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on
Saturday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Diffuse mid-level troughing over the eastern US is again expected
Saturday as a secondary shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies
and over the Plains. Ahead of the western trough, a lee low will
deepen over parts of the central Plains, north of a stalled front
along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the southeastern US will
weaken as a cool polar air mass slowly modifies.

As the surface low moves south toward the Gulf Coast late Saturday,
weak inland moisture advection is expected over parts of coastal
southeast TX and southern LA into early Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible given the ascent and weak buoyancy that
develops. However, most if not all of the convection should remain
offshore. Thus, while some elevated storms are possible inland, the
severe risk appears low.

..Lyons.. 12/04/2025