Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from
the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the
northern High Plains and from North Carolina into southern Virginia.

...Central High Plains across the central Plains and Mid MO Valley
into the Upper Midwest...
Early-morning surface analysis reveals a cold front extending
southwestward from north-central MN to a low southeast SD, where the
front then becomes oriented more westerly across southern SD before
arcing back northwestward across northeast WY and central MT. This
front is expected to make gradual southward/southeastward progress
today, before becoming more diffuse under the influence of storm
outflow late in the period. Ample low-level moisture will be place
ahead of this front by the late afternoon, with dewpoints likely
ranging from the low/mid 60s across central NE into the upper
60s/low 70s across northern IA, southern MN, and northern WI.  The
strongest buoyancy is expected from eastern NE into
western/northwestern IA, where the best overlap between the higher
surface dewpoints and the eastern extent of the steep mid-level
lapse rates exists.

Thunderstorm development is expected first from the
eastern/northeastern IA into the Upper Midwest, where convergence
along the front will be augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to
an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. A few stronger
updrafts are possible in this region, but more modest buoyancy
should limit updraft persistence, with a quick trend towards a more
outflow-dominant storm mode. Stronger buoyancy will support more
robust updrafts from central IA western into central NE, although
modest deep-layer vertical shear should limit organization in this
area as well. Stronger updrafts could contribute to stronger
downdrafts, as well as isolated hail, with a slightly higher overall
severe potential here than areas farther northeast. 

A somewhat separate regime is anticipated farther west across the
central High Plains. Here, moist, post-frontal, upslope flow will
result in moderate buoyancy across the NE Panhandle into eastern WY,
supporting airmass destabilization and late afternoon thunderstorm
development. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear, resulting
from easterly low-level flow beneath moderate northwesterly flow
aloft, is anticipated over this region as well. An initially
cellular mode is likely, with some large hail possible, with fairly
quick upscale growth likely. High cloud bases atop a warm and deeply
mixed boundary layer will support strong outflow, which, when
combined with the strong deep-layer shear, could result in one or
more organized bowing segments.

These two regimes come together across south-central
NE/north-central KS overnight, amid a strengthen low-level jet, but
predictability on the overall convective evolution is limited.
Seemingly some severe potential could linger across
south-central/southeast NE into north-central/northeast KS
overnight. 

...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress through the
northern periphery of the upper ridging in place over the Four
Corners vicinity. Mid-level moisture associated with this wave
coupled with strong heating will result in airmass destabilization
and the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms.
High storm bases atop a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the
potential for damaging gusts with the stronger storms.

...North Carolina/Southern Virginia..
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Mid-Atlantic
southward into the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s F will contribute to an axis of moderate to strong instability
across parts of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the
Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon. The instability combined with steep
low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat.

...Southern AZ...
Increased mid-level moisture will support thunderstorm development
across the higher terrain of eastern AZ during the afternoon.
Westward drift of the upper ridge will result in modest easterly
mid-level flow over the region, with some potential for the
thunderstorms to progress westward into the lower elevations during
the late afternoon. A few strong gusts are possible but uncertainty
regarding coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this
outlook.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/08/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from
the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the
northern High Plains, from North Carolina into southern Virginia,
and over southeast Arizona.

...WI/MN/IA...
A fast-moving shortwave trough is moving eastward across ND.  As
this system approaches the western Great Lakes region this
afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along a surface
boundary extending from southeast MN into central WI.  A moist and
very unstable air mass will be present along the boundary, aiding in
the development of a few severe storms.  Sufficient deep-layer shear
will promote supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail.  An isolated tornado or two is also possible.  This activity
will build westward along the boundary into northern IA by early
evening.  A cluster or two of this activity could congeal into
bowing structures with a continued severe wind risk this evening.

...High Plains...
The upper ridge over the Rockies has weakened today, resulting in
stronger westerly flow into parts of WY/CO/NE/KS.  Scattered
high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by mid-afternoon over
the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY and spread eastward
into the Plains.  Moisture will be limited near the foothills, but
weak easterly surface winds will maintain 40s dewpoints in eastern
CO, leading to convective intensification.  Most CAM solutions show
thunderstorms capable of locally severe wind gusts tracking eastward
through the evening into parts of southwest NE and western KS before
dissipating after midnight.

...Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies...
Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep low-level lapse rates,
and ample mid-level moisture will result in conditions favorable for
scattered high-based thunderstorms over a relatively broad area this
afternoon and evening.  Gusty/damaging winds will be possible with
the strongest storms.

...Southeast AZ...
Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to form over
the higher terrain of southeast AZ and propagate south-southwestward
through the early evening.  Inverted-v profiles will promote a risk
of gusty/damaging winds in a few of the storms.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 07/08/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LOWER MO AND OH
VALLEYS...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for strong gusts and/or large
hail are possible across portions of the northern and central
Plains, the Lower Missouri to Lower Ohio Valleys, and across the
Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Lower MO to Lower OH Valleys...

One or more MCVs are forecast to be located over the Lower MO/Mid-MS
Valley vicinity Thursday morning. As these features migrate eastward
through the day, locally enhanced vertical shear will combine with a
very moist and strongly unstable airmass to provide support for
widely scattered organized severe convection. Thunderstorm clusters
will mainly pose a risk for damaging winds and isolated hail. An
initial cluster may develop across eastern MO/southern IL and shift
east along the Lower OH Valley. Some guidance suggests a second
cluster may develop across southern MO and move east/southeast
across the Mid-South vicinity and eventually into TN overnight. An
increasing southerly low-level jet during the evening could maintain
some severe risk even into the nighttime hours across the Mid-South
into TN and severe probabilities have been expanded some across this
area to reflect this potential. Otherwise, the forecast remains
largely similar to the previous Day 2 outlook.

...Northern/Central Plains...

Several shortwave impulses are forecast to migrate across the region
within northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a pocket of richer
boundary layer moisture is forecast across the central Plains, with
more modest moisture expected northward into the Dakotas. Strong
heating along a surface trough and steep midlevel lapse rates will
support pockets of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Initial supercell
structures are possible across the High Plains and will pose a risk
of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, sufficient
clustering/outflow consolidation is expected and one or more linear
segments will evolve into portions of western KS/NE. Severe gust
potential will increase as this occurs during the evening hours. 

Further north into North Dakota, a separate area of supercell
potential is expected as a weak surface low moves east along the
international border near eastern MT/western ND. Isolated supercells
developing ahead of an approaching surface front will pose a risk
for mainly large hail and strong gusts during the evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Strong daytime heating of a very moist airmass will result in
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. While deep-layer flow will remain modest,
forecast soundings do indicate around 25-30 kt effective shear
magnitudes. This may allow for some organization of thunderstorm
clusters by late afternoon. Most CAMs guidance indicate a
forward-propagating cluster moving across the DelMarVa area and
offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast by evening. Sufficient coverage of
storms and expected damaging gust potential appears high enough to
upgrade to a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk. 

...AZ...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of
southeast AZ/southwest NM Thursday afternoon. Steep lapse rates will
support around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This activity may pose a risk for
isolated severe gusts as convection shifts southwest across lower
elevated through evening.

...Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within modest
instability ahead of a southward-sagging surface boundary on
Thursday. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe
potential will likely be limited by poor lapse rates and modest
instability.

..Leitman.. 07/08/2026