Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST...GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the lower
Mississippi Valley and into parts of Texas.  Other isolated severe
storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and the
central High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern aptly
characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into the
evening across this region.  Residual low-level moisture and steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob; 8.7
deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in moderate
instability developing by mid-late afternoon.  Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop from near the CO/OK-TX
Panhandles border region southward into the Edwards Plateau. 
Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be the primary severe
hazards with the stronger storms.  Some clustering is expected
during the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.

...South-central and Southeast Texas/Southern Louisiana...
In the coastal areas of the western and central Gulf, very moist air
will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will
contribute to moderate instability by midday. Thunderstorms will
form along sea breeze boundaries during the early to mid afternoon. 
A few severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible. 
Farther north over the Ark-La-Miss, some heating ahead of a
north-south band of showers/thunderstorms associated with an MCV
over OK, will contribute to a marginally supportive wind-damage
risk.  Have expanded low-wind probabilities to account for
observational trends of a semi-organized band of storms continuing
east into the Ark-La-Miss during peak heating.

...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak mid-level disturbance over MS/AL this morning will move
east-northeastward today.  Adequate heating of a moist boundary
layer will yield 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and
scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast.  Deep-layer shear will
support some multicellular organization in the form of a few
thunderstorm clusters.  The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will
potentially yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon
before this threat wanes by early evening.  

...Central High Plains...
Latest model guidance shows isolated thunderstorms developing late
this afternoon within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow
associated with a north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. 
The 30-40 kt 500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates
may support a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms to develop
towards early evening.  Locally severe hail/wind will be the threat
with these storms.

...Ohio...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes today. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will be located from eastern Kentucky into central and
northern Ohio, where dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F. As
instability increases during the day, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop and move northeastward across the instability
corridor. RAP forecast soundings in central Ohio at 21Z have 0-6 km
shear near 30 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 150
m2/s2. This could be enough for an isolated tornado threat.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/23/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest
D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward,
stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the
Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing
across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread
northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the
central/northern Plains.  Severe storms may occur each day across
some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In
addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger
storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into
portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact
corridors of greater severe potential remains low. 

By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low
becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before
becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the
high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may
extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow
enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.