Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a positive-tilt upper
trough over the East and a closed low near the California/Baja
California border.  An extensive area of tranquil conditions
influenced by surface high pressure will prevail across much of the
contiguous U.S.  Widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms are possible
across the southern half of the FL Peninsula primarily through
sunset before much of the convective activity is relegated to the FL
Straits and offshore waters tonight.  Weak thunderstorms are
possible tonight in association with the upper low over southern AZ.

..Smith/Supinie.. 10/17/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will move east across central Canada on
Sunday, with a weak upper ridge over the central/southern Plains.
This ridge will be flanked by an upper low off the coastal
Carolinas, and a weak positive-tilt wave moving from northern Baja
CA into AZ.

At the surface, a prominent high will extend from New England all
the way into the southern Plains, with offshore winds across the
Gulf and East Coast. This will maintain a stable pattern over most
of the CONUS. The exceptions will be over AZ and far southern FL. 

For AZ, midlevel moisture will stream northward ahead of the
shortwave trough. Cool midlevel temperatures may yield a few
thunderstorms during the day.

For southern FL, a northeast surface flow regime will maintain a
moist and marginally unstable air mass, and the high PWAT
environment should support a few thunderstorms moving southwestward
across the area.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

The ongoing forecast remains on track. Current satellite imagery
portrays an expansive plume of mid-level dry air progressing
southward over the lower MS River Valley and Southeast. 12z
soundings from JAN, LIX, and BMX depict a north-northeast wind at
30-35 kts just above the surface. As surface heating ensues, deeper
mixing will encourage wind gusts of up to 30 mph and RH reductions
to less than 35% this afternoon. See the previous discussion for
more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will linger to the southwest of Southern
California today as upper ridging transitions eastward into the
Great Plains. This will continue to foster lingering offshore flow
and elevated fire weather conditions across portions of Southern
California today. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will continue to
shift offshore of the Southeast as high pressure builds eastward
into the Ohio River Valley. This will help maintain dry,
post-frontal flow and elevated fire weather concerns across portions
of the lower MS River Valley.

...Southern California...
A closed mid-level low will remain positioned west of the northern
Baja Peninsula, which will help maintain residual easterly offshore
flow today. Generally easterly surface winds of 15-20 mph (locally
up to 25 mph) will prevail this morning, with occasionally higher
gusts in terrain favored locations. While RH values will decrease to
around 15%-20% in the afternoon (locally lower), winds will be
decreasing through the day as the offshore-directed pressure
gradient relaxes. This will support lingering elevated fire weather
conditions this morning and into early afternoon across the Simi
Valley and Sierra Madre/San Rafael Ranges.

...Lower Mississippi River Valley...
High pressure shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley coupled with a
strong cold front progressing offshore of the Southeast will
continue to support dry and breezy post-frontal conditions across
the lower Mississippi River Valley. North-northeast surface winds of
10-15 mph (with localized gusts of 20-25 mph) and minimum daytime RH
values of around 25-30% atop receptive fuels (ERCs commonly above
the 80-90th percentiles) will continue to foster elevated fire
weather concerns from southern LA into southeastern AR and much of
MS.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...