WW 466 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 061840Z - 070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
Eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along and
ahead of a cold front, and build eastward through the watch area.
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with this activity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Fargo
ND to 35 miles south southeast of International Falls MN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
WW 0466 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0466 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 1523 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...Much of northern/central Virginia into
north-central North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 061827Z - 062100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increase in
thunderstorm development this afternoon. The stronger storms will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts. It is unclear if a watch
will be needed, especially in the near term.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar data shows a gradual increase in
thunderstorm development over the higher terrain of western VA ,
with more isolated development farther east. Over the next few
hours, continued diurnal heating and orographic lift should promote
scattered thunderstorms. As these storms advance eastward into parts
of central VA and north-central NC, steepening low-level lapse rates
and increasing buoyancy will promote damaging wind gusts --
especially with any clusters of storms that evolve. Current thinking
is that the greater risk of damaging winds will develop later this
afternoon into the evening, as storms congeal into small clusters.
Therefore, the need for a watch is uncertain in the near term,
though convective trends are being monitored.
..Weinman/Hart.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36578011 37117958 37627924 38217893 38617844 38837801
38847750 38567704 38247687 37587689 36607735 35727817
35427881 35437971 35738020 36138031 36578011
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MD 1522 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...northwest
Minnesota...northeast South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 061811Z - 062015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds are possible with initial
supercells that will eventually grow upscale into a more organized
cluster/MCS. A watch is likely this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A slow moving cold front continues southeastward within
the northern Plains. Though influence from the shortwave trough in
Canada is minimal, areas of strong heating of and upper 60s to low
70s F dewpoint airmass is allowing cumulus to deepen along parts of
the boundary. Additionally, mid-level convection will move eastward
through the Dakotas and may gradually root near the surface. The
strongest initial development will likely occur along the Canadian
border in northwest Minnesota given the greater surface heating and
nominally greater mid-level ascent. Effective shear of 35-40 kt will
support a mixture of supercells and multicells. With time, linear
forcing along the cold front and cold pool mergers will lead to a
broader linear structure. Initial supercells would be capable of
large hail up to 2 inches. As activity congeals, severe wind
gusts/wind damage would become more likely. The environment into the
Mississippi Valley becomes less favorable. Movement of storms toward
the south/southeast into the greater buoyancy is expected with time.
..Wendt/Hart.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45739785 46109810 48279763 49079707 49179637 48959581
46519627 45859646 45659673 45739785
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms
in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.
...MN/ND...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front
sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN
into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints
near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward
into central MN and eastern SD.
...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of
the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and
steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly
organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates,
combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that
the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a
relatively broad area again today.
...AR/LA/OK/TX...
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK,
northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough
where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for
robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for
a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage
appears highest.
...Northern UT into WY...
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and
northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Weinman.. 07/06/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds are most likely over parts of
the Dakotas into Minnesota from Tuesday afternoon into the
overnight, with other isolated storms producing hail or wind over
the northern High Plain. Daytime storms may produce isolated wind
damage over northeast Texas and over Virginia and North Carolina.
...Dakotas into Minnesota...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move eastward across the
northern Plains Tuesday, with increasing mid and high level winds
aloft enhancing shear. Low pressure will develop over western SD and
NE, with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward across SD into
central MN. Southerly winds will aid boundary layer mixing with
strong heating from the central High Plains into central SD, while
upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints persist near the stationary front
with easterly surface winds.
Areas of thunderstorms may occur early in the day from MT into ND
where elevated instability will exist. Some of this activity may
transition to surface based by afternoon, with a probable MCS
developing into northern SD and moving into western MN overnight.
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 along with a nocturnal low-level jet will
support corridors of wind damage. Other storms are likely during the
late afternoon near the low and extending southwestward within the
surface trough. Some of these cells may produce large hail along
with locally damaging gusts.
...Northeast Texas into western Louisiana...
A weak midlevel trough will remain from the lower to mid MS Valley
into eastern TX, with cooler temperatures aloft. Daytime heating and
70s F dewpoints may yield strong instability across the northeast TX
area, where clusters of storms appear likely after 20Z. Modest lapse
rates aloft and weak shear will favor robust but short duration
storms with locally damaging downbursts.
..Virginia and North Carolina...
Strong heating and weak westerlies aloft will induce a surface
trough across central VA into the Carolinas, with MUCAPE over 1500
J/kg likely developing. Storms may develop within this trough by
peak heating, and also over the higher terrain during the afternoon.
Locally damaging gusts may occur, especially with any congealing
clusters.
..Jewell.. 07/06/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...Morning Update...
The forecast remains on track for dry/windy conditions and isolated
dry thunderstorms across portions of the Four Corners and Great
Basin this afternoon. Residual mid-level moisture -- as portrayed by
REV's 12z sounding and various afternoon forecast soundings for the
rest of the region -- will interact with an ejecting shortwave
trough and daytime instability to develop high based convection. Dry
sub-cloud layers and 0.6-0.8" PWATs will encourage less
precipitation efficiency initially, maintaining lightning ignition
potential where critically dry fuels exist. A transition to a mixed
wet/dry thunderstorm threat will occur in the evening as PWATs
increase, most likely in northwestern NM and eastern AZ. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
A combination of dry thunderstorms and dry/windy conditions will
pose fire weather concerns for portions of the Four Corners and
northern Great Basin for today. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
continues to show an upper ridge over the Four Corners region with
an embedded shortwave trough evident across the northern Great
Basin. This feature will promote not only thunderstorm chances
across much of the Great Basin, but should also result in dry/windy
conditions across parts of NV, UT, and AZ.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The 00 UTC MFR RAOB sampled a PWAT value of 0.96 inches, which is
higher than previously anticipated by model guidance. Consequently,
MRMS QPE and surface stations have reported pockets of wetting
rainfall up to 0.25 inches associated with thunderstorms across
southern OR late Sunday evening/early Monday morning. Regional
soundings further east into the Four Corners region sampled a drier
air mass (especially within the boundary layer), but GOES PWAT
imagery suggests higher-quality moisture is advecting northward into
western NV ahead of the upper-level disturbance. This will likely
favor wet thunderstorms across northern CA into southern OR where
most guidance shows a consistent signal for wetting rainfall, which
warranted removal from the dry thunderstorm risk area. A mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms across the CA/OR/NV tri-state region should
transition to predominantly dry thunderstorms with southeastward
extent towards the Four Corners region on the fringe of the
mid-level moisture plume. In general, fuels remain very dry across
the broader region and should support lightning ignitions outside of
where heavier precipitation cores have occurred (mainly over
northern NV/southern OR) over the past 12-24 hours.
...Eastern Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
Modest surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin
through the afternoon will result in increasing southerly winds
across southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT and AZ. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong probabilities
for sustained winds near 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph.
Relative humidity values should fall to near 15% as temperatures
climb into the 90s, resulting in areas of elevated fire weather
conditions. While confidence in elevated conditions is greatest
across southeast NV into southwest UT, more aggressive solutions
suggests elevated conditions may extend into eastern UT.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
|
