Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms appear unlikely across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday
night.

...South Texas...

An upper low over Sonora, Mexico, late this evening is forecast to
move/develop toward the TX Big Bend with an attending belt of
enhanced mid/upper-level flow present over central and southern TX.
The 00Z Brownsville and Corpus Christi, TX, soundings sampled a
seasonably moist air mass (e.g., PW of 1.7") advancing inland ahead
of the upper-air system with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to
rise into the low to mid 70s across Deep South TX on Sunday. That
moisture will contribute to at least marginal instability, which,
coupled with persistent low/midlevel warm advection downstream from
the upper low, will foster multiple waves of thunderstorms during
the forecast period.  

A vertically veering wind profile with up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer
shear is forecast across the region on Sunday, which would
conditionally support supercell storm modes and an associated severe
weather threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists in the
extent to which the air mass can destabilize due to the deleterious
effects of convective outflow and cloud cover arising from early-day
storms. As such, no severe weather probabilities will be included in
this forecast. 


...Washington...

While the strongest forcing for ascent will shift away from the
region Sunday morning, steep lapse rates in the 0-3 km layer may
support a few sufficiently deep convective updrafts for lightning
generation into afternoon.


...Lower Great Lakes and Maine...

Isolated lightning occurrences appear possible over ME Sunday
morning in association with an upper low moving through the area.
Sporadic lightning activity may also occur in the lee of the lower
Great Lakes Sunday night within a zone of strong dynamic
ascent/midlevel cooling present on the cyclonic side of
mid/upper-level wind maxima progressing into the region. In both
areas, areal lightning coverage is expected to be less than 10%.

..Mead.. 11/08/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Monday and
Monday night.

...DISCUSSION...
Mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be in place across much of
the central and eastern U.S. on Monday. Further south, an
upper-level low will move across the southern High Plains, weakening
substantially during the day. Southeastward from the low, scattered
thunderstorms will be possible early in the day over parts of south
Texas. Instability will be very weak and no severe threat is
expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the
continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 11/08/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the north-central
U.S. on Tuesday, as west-northwesterly flow remains in place over
much of the central and eastern U.S. A shortwave trough will also
move eastward in the vicinity of the western Gulf Coast. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible within a moist airmass from south
Texas to the middle Texas Coast on Tuesday. No severe threat is
expected, and thunderstorms are not forecast across the remainder of
the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 11/08/2026