WW 456 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 041800Z - 050100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Ohio
Western Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop across the watch area and
spread southeastward through the afternoon. Locally damaging wind
gusts may accompany the stronger storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of
Columbus OH to 15 miles north of Dubois PA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 454...WW 455...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Hart
WW 455 SEVERE TSTM IL IN LM 041735Z - 050000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM
until 700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop across the watch area through
the afternoon in a relatively hot and humid air mass. The strongest
cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of
Bloomington IL to 45 miles north northeast of Danville IL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 454...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Hart
WW 454 SEVERE TSTM MO 041720Z - 050000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 454
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Missouri
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM
until 700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will track eastward across the
watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging
wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of
Knob Noster MO to 25 miles south of Jefferson City MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0456 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0455 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0454 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0454 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 1492 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...EASTERN/CENTRAL OH...AND FAR NORTHERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 1492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Areas affected...Parts of western/central PA...eastern/central
OH...and far northern WV
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 041736Z - 042000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of severe thunderstorms capable of producing
widely scattered wind damage will increase over the next few hours.
A watch is likely this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening along a
lake breeze boundary southeast of Lake Erie, and within a zone of
broadly confluent low-level flow extending into central OH.
Continued diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will support
widely scattered thunderstorm development in these zones of
mesoscale ascent over the next few hours, given an uncapped air
mass. While around 20 kt of effective shear will limit thunderstorm
organization, steep low/mid-level lapse rates (sampled by earlier
12Z soundings) and increasing deep-layer moisture will promote
scattered damaging wind gusts with loosely organized clusters and
cells. A watch is likely for parts of the area this afternoon.
..Weinman/Hart.. 07/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 39887812 39737931 39748071 39708200 39698296 39968361
40368365 40668338 41238166 41688021 41907891 41917818
41587755 41037735 40407760 39887812
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1491 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
Mesoscale Discussion 1491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Areas affected...Much of Virginia...Maryland...and eastern West
Virginia,
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 041649Z - 041915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
while developing eastward through the afternoon. The primary concern
will be scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is likely.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving along the
high terrain in WV and southwestern VA this afternoon. Continued
diurnal heating and orographic lift will favor increasing
thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Downstream, strong
diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (upper 60s to
lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by
12Z soundings) will support thunderstorm intensification through the
afternoon. While fairly weak deep-layer shear may limit overall
thunderstorm organization, the aforementioned environment will favor
a mix of cells and loosely organized clusters capable of producing
scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts across much of VA and
eventually into MD. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely for this
activity.
..Weinman/Hart.. 07/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 37548059 38018032 39057934 39427883 39597832 39647744
39547686 39357649 38907637 38057671 37237763 36667909
36688013 37028055 37548059
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1490 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Areas affected...north-central Illinois into Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 041624Z - 041930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to
develop after 18Z over central and north-central Illinois, moving
into Indiana later this afternoon. Damaging gusts will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and surface observations show a low
and MCV moving out of eastern IA into northern IL. Analyzed
streamlines show substantial convergence into northwest IL
currently, with modest southerly winds ahead of this feature aiding
warming/destabilization. Cooler air exists over southeast WI and
northeast IL, but areas of heating and gradual warm advection may
allow destabilization close to parts of the Chicago metro area.
The 12Z ILX sounding shows high PWAT over 1.75", along with 25-35 kt
midlevel westerlies. Overall storm motions will be toward the east,
with a tendency for southeastward propagation. This could bring wind
potential toward the Indianapolis area during the early evening.
..Jewell/Hart.. 07/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40118965 40489010 41258940 41948909 41818777 41698682
40928653 40398654 39788684 39608762 39618768 40118965
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind
gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great
Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and large hail.
...Mid Atlantic...
A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today
with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the
mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse
rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest
mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of
PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters
remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms.
...PA/NY into southern New England...
A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is
rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US.
Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in
widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA
into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into
southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will
pose a risk of damaging wind gusts.
..IL/IN...
A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA,
with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The
air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very
unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms.
Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds
as these storms organize and track into IN by evening.
...KS/MO...
An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS.
Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient
mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will
persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with
a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
...KS/OK/AR...
In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development
is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary
across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south
of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some
hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and
into western AR this evening.
...TX Panhandle...
A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late
afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The
strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a
few hours.
...Northeast CO...
Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the
40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong
heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered
thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe
cells are possible with large hail being the main risk.
...MN/SD...
Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave
trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty
winds.
..Hart/Weinman.. 07/04/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms
also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and
portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A weak surface low is forecast to move west to east along a sagging
cold front/baroclinic zone draped across PA into northern
NJ/southeast NY on Sunday/Sunday evening. Meanwhile, lee troughing
will develop across VA. A hot and very moist airmass will reside
near and south of these boundaries, which will serve as a focus for
severe storm development during the afternoon and into evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft will weaken through the day as an upper
shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region, but around 20-30 kt
mid/upper-level flow will persist. Moderate to strong
destabilization is expected and thunderstorm clusters are expected
by early to mid-afternoon. Sufficient clustering could occur along
the southward-sagging cold front and one or more forward propagating
clusters will be possible from northern VA into southeast PA until
storms move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening.
Sufficient consistency among deterministic/CAMs and AI/ML guidance
exists regarding storm coverage to warrant an upgrade to 30 percent
wind probabilities for portions of the region.
...Southern Plains to TN Valley...
An remnant/weakening MCS is expected to be located over OK or AR
Sunday morning. An MCV related to this feature will progress
eastward toward the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity through the day.
Further south and west near the Red River Valley/North Texas into
the southern High Plains, outflow associated with the late-Day
1/Saturday into early Day 2/Sunday MCS may arc across this region.
Differential heating could occur along this boundary, providing
support for redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Boundary
layer moisture will be modest with westward extent into the High
Plains, but steep lapse rates aloft, and increasing moisture with
eastward extent into the Lower MS Valley will support a corridor of
moderate instability in the vicinity of the surface boundary.
Northwesterly flow aloft will also modestly strengthen through the
day, fostering weak, but perhaps sufficient vertical shear for
transient organized cells/clusters along the boundary.
Further east, the MCV will locally enhance vertical shear amid a
very moist and moderately unstable airmass. This could foster
potential for one or more forward propagating storm clusters, and
some risk for damaging gusts from wet microbursts, leading to a
broad expansion of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across parts of
the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity.
...Northern Rockies into North Dakota...
West/southwest flow aloft will strengthen across MT into ND as an
upper shortwave trough moving across western Canada glances northern
portions of the U.S. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will
stretch from the northern Great Basin through southern/eastern MT
into the western Dakotas. Low-level moisture will not be impressive,
but the steep lapse rates aloft will support a corridor of modest
destabilization across MT, and somewhat greater across western ND
where boundary-layer moisture will be marginally better along a
surface trough. Vertically veering wind profiles, with increasing
speeds above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater
than 30 kt, and organized storms are possible. Strong gusts and
isolated hail will be the main hazards with these storms during the
afternoon into evening.
..Leitman.. 07/04/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
No changes were made to the previous outlook. Moisture has pushed
onto and in a few gaps west of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo
Mountains in Colorado, with dewpoints increasing 35-60F overnight
from along/near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to around Raton Pass.
Uncertainty remains if thunderstorms will develop west of the Front
Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains with thunderstorm probabilities
of 5-15% for these areas. However, if thunderstorm do develop they
will be dry and over near to record dry fuels. Concern for deep
pyroconvection remains on active large fires in/around the IsoDryT
area with gusty to severe outflow winds also a concern, especially
for the Aspen Acres Fire.
Moisture is moving north across southern California and the
Southwest between an upper low and high. Satellite imagery shows
shallow mid-level convection in central Arizona this morning. Areas
along/near the Mogollon Rim may have isolated thunderstorms today,
but uncertainty regarding cloud depth to support electrification
precludes including an IsoDryT area.
..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging is noted across the southwestern CONUS/northwest
Mexico in early-morning water-vapor imagery. This ridge is expected
to build northward over the next 24 hours and will maintain very
dry, but relatively benign, conditions across the Four Corners/Great
Basin region where fuels remain the driest. However, more focused
fire weather concerns may emerge within the lee of the Cascades and
across portions of central Colorado this afternoon and early
evening.
...Cascades...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in water-vapor imagery
approaching the Pacific Northwest. Stronger low and mid-level flow
associated with this wave will overspread the Cascades through the
day, resulting in strengthening downslope winds along the eastern
slopes. Latest high-res guidance depicts 15-20 mph winds through the
more prominent gaps where downslope warming/drying will likely
result in pockets of 20-25% relative humidity. Although sustained
elevated fire weather conditions may be somewhat localized, recent
fire activity suggests fuels are adequately receptive to support the
fire weather concern.
...Colorado...
The 00 UTC GJT sounding from western CO sampled very steep (9.4
C/km) mid-level lapse rates with adequate mid-level moisture to
support weak buoyancy despite a PWAT value of only 0.35 inches. This
air mass will advect eastward over the next 18 hours and will likely
support pockets of adequate MUCAPE for weak convection this
afternoon. Despite upper-level height rises, upslope flow along the
central Rockies may support a few thunderstorms to the west of the
Front Range where very dry low-level conditions will be favorable
for dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuels across the region and
some potential for dry lightning strikes, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
highlights were maintained.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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