Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week,
yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion.
Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS
signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across
the southern states through late week. While run-to-run
predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective
potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of
the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis
consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears
marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and
yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual
day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast tomorrow (Monday),
resulting in northwesterly upper flow overspreading the Plains
states through the Day 2 period. Northwesterly flow will also
prevail at the surface over the Plains as surface high pressure
settles over the region. Sustained surface north-northwesterly winds
should peak around 15 mph by afternoon, amid 40 F surface
temperatures and 15-25 percent RH. Given drying fuels, the
aforementioned meteorological conditions should support low-end
Elevated conditions. The best chance for these conditions will be
across the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas and western
Oklahoma, where Elevated highlights have been introduced.

..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...