Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening over parts of Great Plains and Ozarks.
Isolated severe gusts will also be possible today from the
Mid-Atlantic northward into New York.

...Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas/Southwest Missouri/Far
Northwest Arkansas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward toward the mid Mississippi
Valley today. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be
located from far northern Oklahoma east-northeastward into
south-central Missouri, along which dewpoints will be in the 60s and
lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate
instability will develop along and near the front, with the RAP
forecasting MLCAPE to increase into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range.
During the afternoon, low-level convergence will become focused near
the front with scattered thunderstorm development taking place from
southern Kansas into southwest Missouri. These storms will move
southeastward into northern Oklahoma and far northwestern Arkansas
by the early to mid evening. 

In addition to the moderate instability, RAP forecast soundings
early this evening near the front have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40
knot range with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment
will support a severe threat. A mixed mode is expected with
supercells and multicell line segments both possible. Supercells
will be capable of severe wind gusts and hail, while the stronger
line segments will be associated with primarily a wind-damage
threat. The severe threat could persist into the mid to late
evening.

...Mid-Atlantic/New York/Far Western New England...
Mid-level flow will be southwesterly over the Northeast today. At
the surface, a trough will be located from the Atlantic Coastal
Plains of Virginia north-northeastward into the southeastern New
York. As surface temperatures warm today, thunderstorms will develop
in the foothills of the Appalachians, moving east-northeastward into
the lower elevations and toward the surface trough. Surface
dewpoints near the trough will be in the lower to mid 70s F, which
will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon.
MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, which
combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated
wind-damage threat.

...Western Nebraska/Southern South Dakota...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the
north-central U.S. today. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will set up from western Nebraska into far southern South
Dakota, where dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Near this axis, model
forecasts show a pocket of moderate instability this afternoon with
MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although large-scale
ascent will be weak, any cell that can initiate near the instability
axis could be capable of producing isolated severe gusts.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 08/06/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEBRASKA
INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A corridor of damaging winds may develop Saturday afternoon and
evening from Nebraska into Iowa/Northern Missouri.

...Mid to Lower MO Valley...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern
Plains into the Great Lakes on Saturday, as the main upper wave
rotates northeast from Ontario into Quebec. The southern periphery
of this stronger flow aloft will remain over the middle to lower MO
Valley, with a warm front developing across NE and IA. Strong
heating will occur east of a surface low either in western NE or KS,
with south winds resulting in a deep mixed layer by afternoon.

Storms are expected to form over NE, and possibly move into IA or MO
through evening in the form of an MCS. This would be fueled by a
strengthening southerly low-level jet as well, suggesting an
organized system may occur. For now, low probabilities have been
added due to uncertainty with placement of any such corridor.
Damaging winds would be the main concern.

...Mid Atlantic...
Scattered afternoon storms will again be likely over much of the
eastern states on Saturday, within a modest southwest flow regime. A
high PW environment will remain in place, supporting an uncapped air
mass and conditional/localized wind risk. Predictability is low at
this time given possible antecedent rain or thunderstorm areas, but
low probabilities for wind could be added in later updates.

..Jewell.. 08/06/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of
thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains
across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into
parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given
the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and
variability with the position of the elongated west to east front.
However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong
instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating
around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm
corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be
denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.

At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to
Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest
on Monday/D5.