Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of of
tornadoes will be possible this evening in parts of the northern
Plains. A few marginally severe wind gusts may occur across parts of
Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

... Eastern North and South Dakota and Western Minnesota ...

Severe thunderstorms continue this evening across portions of
eastern South Dakota, particularly across Tornado Watch #271. The
environment across the watch remains unstable with MLCAPE values
ranging from 2000 J/kg across southern South Dakota to around 1000
J/kg across northern South Dakota. Deep-layer shear will remain
sufficient for thunderstorm organization, including supercells into
the overnight hours. Low-level wind fields are expected to improve
over the next 2-3 hours, which may yield an increased potential for
tornadoes during this period.

The severe threat should continue slowly eastward into portion of
far western Minnesota during the overnight hours.

..Marsh.. 06/04/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...Synopsis...
Ahead of a slow approaching deep upper low currently offshore the
British Columbia Coast, zonal flow will overspread the Northwest
through the Upper Midwest. Multiple embedded perturbations within
the downstream flow will encourage additional precipitation across
portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin, bringing some relief to a
recently receptive fuelscape. Upper ridging will continue to flatten
over the Great Lakes region, steering surface high pressure atop the
Southeast and initiating a gradual warming trend into the weekend.

A weak, dry cold front will stall across the Great Basin today,
extending from southwestern Wyoming into central Nevada. Behind the
front, sustained westerly winds of 10-20 mph (gusts up to 35 mph in
the upper Colorado Western Slope into the Wyoming Basin) are
expected through much of the afternoon hours. Hot and very dry
(5-15% minimum RHs) conditions supportive of deep boundary layer
mixing up to 450 mb will be in place over much of the Southwest,
Great Basin, and central Rocky Mountain regions. Elevated fire
weather highlights have been maintained where this combination of
wind/RH amid receptive fuel conditions will support a limited fire
weather risk this afternoon. Given the right alignment of wind, RH,
and very dry fuels possible within localized portions of the drawn
area, critical thresholds could be briefly achieved.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...Synopsis...
A robust upper-level trough will approach the Northwest Coast on Day
2/Friday, increasing mid-level southwesterly flow across the Great
Basin. Weaker deep-layer flow will persist over the Southwest where
a very dry airmass exists. Several perturbations embedded within
zonal flow across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will
continue chances for precipitation, meanwhile surface high pressure
over the Southeast will promote dry conditions and above normal
temperatures. 

A warm and dry airmass will linger into Day 2/Friday across the
Great Basin and Southwest. Latest guidance depicts weaker flow aloft
portions of the Southwest, however, very low daytime RH near 10%
(localized single digits) amid 10-20 mph terrain-driven winds will
support a fire weather threat across northwest Arizona, southeastern
Nevada, and southwestern Utah. Elevated highlights have been
introduced where aforesaid weather conditions will overlap a region
of receptive fuels (broad 80-90th percentile ERCs).

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...