WW 601 SEVERE TSTM AZ 192140Z - 200600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM MST Wed Aug 19 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Arizona
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM
until 1100 PM MST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to develop
especially over the mountains, with some storm organization and
aggregating outflows expected to reach the desert floor, with
severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust possible through at least
early/mid-evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northeast of
Phoenix AZ to 35 miles west southwest of Sierra Vista AZ. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 600...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
03020.
...Guyer
WW 600 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO 191950Z - 200100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southwest Iowa
Far Northeast Kansas
Northwest Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 250 PM
until 800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A bowing segment and a supercell or two will continue to
develop and move into the Watch area this afternoon, with the severe
threat persisting into the early evening. Severe gusts 60 to 75 mph
are the primary hazard, but isolated large hail may accompany the
stronger thunderstorm cores.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of Falls City NE to 60 miles east northeast of Saint Joseph MO. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 599...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Smith
WW 0601 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0601 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0600 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 600
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW FLV TO
30 N STJ TO 20 SE LWD.
..SQUITIERI..08/19/26
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...TOP...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 600
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC003-021-025-049-061-063-075-081-192340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY HARRISON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE LNK
TO 25 SSE OMA.
..KERR..08/19/26
ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 599
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-192140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT
NEC025-067-097-127-131-133-147-192140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS GAGE JOHNSON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 2046 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Areas affected...eastern New Mexico...eastern Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192159Z - 200000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail and damaging wind will be
possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage along
the high terrain across eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado this
afternoon. This activity will slowly spread into the lower plains
through the afternoon and evening.
Deep layer shear for organization is best across eastern Colorado,
with weaker shear across eastern New Mexico. The most favorable
instability also resides across eastern Colorado. A few isolated
supercells with large hail will be possible initially. Large dew
point depressions and steep low level lapse rates will likely lead
to outflow dominate storms and more of a threat for strong to severe
wind. Overall, this threat should remain too localized for watch
issuance.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 08/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36370573 37240570 37910574 38940554 39250532 39390496
39380460 38850406 37810371 36260398 35610422 34830460
34460531 34540555 34790578 35000596 36370573
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 2045 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 2045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern and central Illinois...central
and northern Indiana...western Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192152Z - 192315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop along a west-to-east
oriented boundary through the remainder of the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have been increasing in
intensity along a diffuse west-to-east oriented boundary extending
from central and northern Illinois into western Ohio. Along this
boundary, over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is in place, along with substantial
0-3 km CAPE (150-175 J/kg). Furthermore, an 80 kt 300 mb jet streak
is overspreading the OH Valley, contributing to 50+ kts of effective
bulk shear (mainly speed shear in the mid to upper levels per RAP
forecast soundings). Given these conditions, the current thinking is
that a few of the stronger storms along this baroclinic boundary may
become transient supercellular, capable of producing a couple
instances of severe wind/hail or even a brief tornado.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40218970 40349089 40539121 40689113 40989078 41398787
40708286 40268248 39988279 40058660 40218970
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 2044 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Areas affected...Northwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192042Z - 192245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated supercell appears possible based on recent
satellite trends. Isolated large hail and severe winds are possible
should a storm develop. A watch is not likely.
DISCUSSION...An area of agitated cumulus has developed in northwest
Kansas over the last hour along a weak surface cold front. Very weak
ascent aloft from a glancing shortwave trough in the central Plains
could allow an isolated supercell to develop. Visible satellite
trends and some recent CAM guidance would suggest storm initiation
is probable, though not certain. The environment would support
isolated large hail and severe winds. Given the lack of greater
upper-level support, coverage and duration of severe intensity will
likely be limited.
..Wendt/Smith.. 08/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38740159 39120170 39480144 39400072 39050024 38760017
38510049 38410106 38740159
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 2043 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Areas affected...parts of east central and southeastern Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 192008Z - 192245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to slowly increase and
spread westward off the higher terrain through 2-4 PM MST. A severe
weather watch may be needed at some point, once storms begin to
consolidate into an evolving cluster, but this may not be until
later this evening.
DISCUSSION...Substantive destabilization is ongoing across much of
central and southern Arizona, within a seasonably moist air mass
boosted by a recent surge from the Gulf of California. Latest
objective analysis indicates that strongest potential instability
has become focused to immediate southwest and west of the higher
terrain of east central into southeastern Arizona, where inhibition
has been eroding most appreciably. As this continues over the next
few hours, a slow propagation off the higher terrain straddling the
southern Arizona/New Mexico border may commence by 21-23Z, with
strong downbursts posing increasing potential for strong to severe
surface gusts within a strongly heated and deep mixed
boundary-layer. Increasing thunderstorm development closer to the
southeastern Arizona international border may also begin to impact
the Tucson vicinity.
..Kerr/Smith.. 08/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 34381124 33891042 33451018 32550860 31370931 31091055
31251136 31741145 32811055 34071176 34381124
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
this afternoon across the lower Missouri Valley, the mid Mississippi
Valley, and southern Arizona.
...20z Update...
A compact, but severe, MCS has begun tracking eastward along a
residual/diffuse frontal zone into southeast NE. Based on the recent
18 UTC OAX RAOB, the MCS is beginning to orient more orthogonal to
the deep-layer bulk shear vector, which should continue to promote
storm organization and intensity. The potential for severe winds,
including winds near 75 mph, should continue through late afternoon
and early evening hours before moving into more stable air mass
across north-central MO. See MCD #2041 for additional short-term
details.
...Mid-Mississippi Valley/lower Ohio Valley...
Recent GOES visible imagery and surface observations show
temperatures rebounding into the low to mid 80s as skies clear ahead
of an approaching mid-level wave. This destabilization appears to be
on track with recent guidance, which suggests that initially
discrete/semi-discrete storm development should begin by around
22-00 UTC across south-central MO on the western fringe of the
residual cold pool. Forecast soundings from this region depict
elongated hodographs conducive for large hail, including the
potential for hail up to 2 inches in diameter (based on sounding
analogs and hodograph structure). Given a favorable kinematic
environment, adequate buoyancy, and a signal in recent high-res
ensemble guidance for strong convection, a CIG 1 hail contour has
been introduced to portions of southern Missouri.
Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made based on recent
convective trends. See the discussion below and MCD #2040 for
additional details.
..Moore.. 08/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026/
...Mid MO Valley...
Radar/visible satellite mosaic imagery depicts a small cluster of
severe thunderstorms immediately ahead of a migratory shortwave
trough moving southeast over the mid MO Valley. Some heating
downstream of this activity will result in temperatures warming and
the airmass gradually destabilizing amid filtered sunshine. Gradual
upscale growth is underway and should continue into the early
afternoon. Large hail and severe gusts 60-70 mph will be the
primary severe hazards as this cluster moves into adjacent portions
of NE/MO/IA later this afternoon.
...Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley...
Residual showers/thunderstorms from an overnight MCS over the
southeast MO into western KY vicinity will slowly dissipate this
afternoon with greater heating ensuing in the wake of these storms.
Models continue to show moderate destabilization by late this
afternoon ahead of the MO Valley upper vort. Weak low-level
convergence along an upstream cold front will support thunderstorm
development within this destabilized airmass this evening.
Strengthening mid-level flow will result in moderate to strong
deep-layer vertical shear supportive of supercells. Models vary
regarding the propensity for cellular mode to be maintained beyond
the initial storm development phase, casting doubt on supercell
longevity and tornado potential. Nonetheless, some strengthening of
850-mb flow during the evening may enable some mesocyclone potential
to persist, and an accompanying isolated risk for a tornado or two.
Otherwise, storms will tend to cluster with eastward extent, with
the threat for damaging gusts persisting within these bowing line
segments.
...Ohio Valley...
A somewhat secondary area of late afternoon/early evening
thunderstorm development is anticipated from central IL into central
IN and central OH. Moderate buoyancy and strong westerly flow aloft
supports the potential for isolated supercells capable of large hail
and isolated damaging gusts.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
A seasonably moist airmass will undergo strong heating/mixing and
result in moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon. Thunderstorm
development is expected across the higher terrain before then
progressing eastward into the lower elevations. Moderate
northwesterly flow aloft will support organized storms
structures, and large hail is possible along the Foothills.
Steep lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint depressions will
lead to outflow-dominant storms capable of severe gusts with the
more intense cores/outflow.
...AZ...
The presence of monsoon moisture will support moderate buoyancy
across the lower elevations of south-central AZ during the late
afternoon. Scattered storms are expected to eventually develop
towards the early evening. Trends in model guidance showing a
cluster potentially evolving within an adequately moist/inverted-V
environment lend confidence in introducing a level 1 intensity
highlight for peak gusts in the 70-80 mph range.
...Southeast into northern FL...
A very moist airmass analyzed late this morning (mid to upper 70s F
surface dewpoints) will remain in place along the Gulf Coast. Strong
heating is anticipated, with high temperatures in the upper 90s
across much of the region. As surface temperatures warm, moderate
instability will develop, with scattered thunderstorms expected amid
modest low-level convergence from MS into western/southern AL and
across the FL Panhandle into northern FL. The deep low-level
moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an
isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late afternoon.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch
diamter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central
Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some
with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of
the Carolinas.
...Central Plains...
Northwest flow aloft will strengthen further on Friday, with 40-60
kt at 500 mb common across the Mid-MO Valley. At the surface, low
pressure will develop along surface troughing across western NE/KS.
Rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place across eastern NE/IA
and southward across the Lower MO Valley. A plume of steep midlevel
lapse rates will reside across the High Plains and spread eastward
toward the MO River during the evening. These steep lapse rates atop
the moist boundary layer will support a corridor of strong
instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Meanwhile, forecast soundings
indicate supercell wind profiles with nearly 50 kt effective shear
magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs.
Initial supercells should develop near the surface trough over
southwest SD/northwest NE, and shift southeast through evening,
posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Forecast guidance depicts a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet
developing across KS overnight. This may maintain clusters/promote
upscale growth into an MCS during the nighttime hours, spreading
southeast toward northwest MO by Saturday morning. If this occurs,
damaging wind potential could increase/become the predominant severe
hazard overnight.
Additional more isolated storms could develop ahead of a
southward-advancing cold front across Iowa overnight. Any storms
that develop will likely be elevated, but will form in an
environment supporting severe hail.
...Southeast...
Scattered to numerous storms are forecast within a very moist and
unstable environment along a surface trough extending northeast to
southwest from NC into GA/southeast AL. Vertical shear is expected
to remain very weak. Nevertheless, a mix of single and multi-cell
convection will pose a risk for wet microbursts during the afternoon
and early evening.
..Leitman.. 08/19/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previously drawn elevated area in place over northeastern CA,
northwestern NV, and southern OR was removed. While RHs will still
fall to near 10-15%, the latest forecast guidance has trended weaker
with winds during the afternoon across the region on Day 2/Thursday.
Outside of localized terrain-enhanced wind, widespread afternoon
winds of 10-15 mph are expected to remain below elevated thresholds.
Thus, only brief and localized elevated fire environment conditions
are expected over much of the Intermountain West on Day 2/Thursday
afternoon.
..Stearns.. 08/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will persist over the northeastern CONUS on
Day 2/Thursday, with an embedded mid-level shortwave yielding
increased precipitation chances over a drought-stressed environment
in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. The established upper ridge
over the Great Basin will continue to amplify, delivering above
normal temperatures and dry conditions to the Interior West.
Meanwhile, an upper trough will deepen along the West Coast,
ushering stronger southwesterly flow into the northwestern CONUS.
Across northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, and southern
Oregon, daytime high temperatures will range from 90-100 F or
greater amid 10-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly winds and RH
values of 10-15%. These meteorological conditions will overlap a
receptive fuelscape, promoting an Elevated fire weather threat. RH
values of 15-20% and 10-20 mph southwesterly winds will also overlap
portions of southeastern Nevada; however, recent monsoonal moisture
has contributed to less receptive fuels, precluding the expansion of
Elevated highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
An established ridge over the Intermountain West will amplify and
the pressure gradient will continue to tighten on Day 3/Friday as a
trough approaches the west CONUS coast. A mid-level low pressure
system will near the Pacific Northwest coast on Day 3/Friday as the
upper-level jet max peaks over southern/central OR. This will
provide widespread lift to portions of the Cascade Mountains and
then much of central/eastern WA under the left exit region of the
jet streak on the evening/night of Day 3/Friday. The trough will
begin to lift northeastward as it becomes slightly negatively-tilted
going into Day 4/Saturday. High pressure remains in place over much
of the southwestern half of the CONUS with shortwave trough passages
periodically moving across the crest of the high through the
northern states. While slight differences in timing of the
aforementioned trough remain, the overall pattern evolution remains
similar amongst various ensemble forecast guidance. As we turn the
corner toward next week, the ridge broadens and builds over the
Intermountain West once again. Forecast certainty in any particular
solution decreases thereafter given greater ensemble spread.
...Pacific Northwest/Northern California/Great Basin...
The Pacific Northwest and immediately neighboring areas of northern
California and the Great Basin will remain the foci through at least
the first half of the extended forecast. Starting on Day 3/Friday
and continuing through Day 4/Saturday, expect multiple consecutive
days of gusty southwesterly winds combined with warm and dry weather
as the aforementioned large trough approaches from the west.
Increasing above-normal temperatures through Day 3/Friday will give
way to cooler conditions as the trough approaches and moves onshore
Day 4/Saturday. Given the jet aloft and surface conditions that
would support deep daytime mixing, a favorable pattern remains in
place for dry and breezy weather to overlap very dry fuels across
northeastern CA, southern OR, and northwestern NV. 40% Critical
probabilities were maintained on Day 3/Friday through Day 4/Saturday
along with a widespread 10% probability of Dry Thunderstorms over
much of the Pacific Northwest and the nearby northern Rockies.
Additionally, where winds appear strongest (sustained at 20-25 mph
from the southwest) over the tri-state CA, OR, NV area, 70% Critical
probabilities were maintained on Day 4/Saturday. While a
thunderstorm or two favoring the higher terrain of the Cascades (and
pyro-aided convection amid initially hot, dry, and windy surface
conditions) can't be ruled out on the afternoon of Day 3/Friday, the
best convective potential will occur starting around 06Z on Saturday
(Friday night) as the jet max approaches. This pattern of
aforementioned upper-level support, limited but adequate
(precipitable water values near 0.5-0.7") moisture, fast-moving
(25-35 mph) storms, and dry fuels (ERCs near the 80-95th percentile)
remains in place on Day 4/Saturday. With minimal precipitation
expected from the previous day, an area of 10% Dry Thunderstorm risk
was introduced over portions of the northern Pacific Northwest
region and the nearby far western extent of the northern Rockies
region.
...Southern Plains...
On Day 5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday, a cold front will move across the
southern Plains, increasing fire weather risk in southwesterly flow
ahead of the front as it progresses southeastward. Current ensemble
forecast guidance suggests sustained 10-20 mph south to
southwesterly winds will combine with afternoon RHs near 15-20%
across the TX/OK Panhandles and surrounding areas with critically
dry fuels.
...Northern Plains...
Evolution of the post-frontal northwesterly winds over the northern
High Plains remains a concern on Day 5/Sunday. Across much of the
central MT, sustained northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph will occur.
Some forecast guidance shows these strong and gusty winds extending
even farther across eastern MT. This area will be watched closely
with future outlook issuances.
..Stearns.. 08/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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