Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Gulf states into the Southeast. A few storms may produce hail across
portions of northern Mississippi into northern Alabama.

...Gulf States...

Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough digging
southeast across the central Plains. 500mb speed max associated with
this feature is forecast to translate across northern AR into the
Mid South by 18z before the short wave deamplifies as it approaches
the southern Appalachians. In response to this short wave, LLJ will
strengthen across GA into NC before advancing off the Middle
Atlantic coast by early evening. While low-level flow will weaken
considerably across the northern Gulf states, weak convergence is
expected to aid convective development along the trailing synoptic
front as it settles south during the afternoon. Latest model
guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted across
the lower MS Valley into northern AL by mid afternoon such that
minimal inhibition will be present along the wind shift. Forecast
soundings exhibit MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg as surface
temperatures rise through the upper 60s into the lower 70s. HREF
guidance supports this with isolated-scattered convection evolving
along the trailing boundary by 21z, especially the HRRR. Hail is the
primary concern with these storms through early evening.

..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/26/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on
Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.

... Discussion ...

A deamplifying shortwave tough is forecast to move across the
Southeast through the period, embedded within a broader regime of
mid-level toughing across the eastern US. This large-scale setup
will maintain modest ascent across the Gulf States and South
Atlantic coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will continue to
sag slowly south toward the Gulf Coast and northern Florida
Peninsula.

Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover at the start of the period
across central Alabama and Georgia are expected to persist,
gradually shifting south and east through the period. While
thermodynamic conditions support thunderstorms, the overall severe
threat should remain low due to weak low-level convergence and
limited instability.

... Southern Alabama/Georgia and the Florida Panhandle ...

Seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by dewpoints in the
low 60Fs will be in place ahead of the sagging surface boundary.
Despite surface temperatures warming into the low 70Fs, widespread
cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely limit overall
diurnal heating.

Modified soundings suggest a marginally unstable environments with
MLCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg. These buoyancy profiles appear
tall and skinny, which, combined with the lack of stronger forcing,
will limit the potential for robust updrafts. While hodographs are
notably elongated, suggesting deep-layer shear should be sufficient
for some storm organization, weak low-level kinematic fields and
poor low-level convergence should preclude a sustained, organized
severe threat.

... Florida Peninsula ...

South of the primary frontal zone, additional thunderstorm
development appears possible during the day on Friday across the
Florida peninsula. Forecast soundings across the peninsula indicate
the presence of a CAPE robbing capping inversion around 700 mb,
although this inversion lifts during the day in response to subtle
height falls associated with the synoptic trough. The associated
warmer mid-level temperatures associated with the capping inversion
will limit MLCAPE to between 500-1000 J/kg. Additionally, hodograph
lengths decrease with southward extent, indicative of weakening
deep-layer shear. Given this type of environment and the lack of
focused forcing, any thunderstorm should remain disorganized and
below severe limits.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION

...Synopsis...
...Portions of South-Central Texas...
A weak, dry cold front will bring RH values of 10-20% to portions of
south-central Texas this afternoon as a modest surface low shifts
south and east across Texas. A moderately strong pressure gradient
on the western/southwestern periphery of the low will support
sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in
terrain-favored areas). With warm, dry antecedent conditions
yielding receptive fine fuels, this combination of winds and RH will
support Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.

...Portions of the Central and Southern High Plains...
A low pressure system pushing eastward across southern Canada today
will couple with building high pressure across portions of western
Wyoming and northwestern Colorado to yield a strengthening
cross-terrain surface pressure gradient over portions of the Central
Rockies. This setup will favor dry, northwesterly downslope winds of
15-25 mph with locally higher gusts and RH values of 10-20% atop
receptive fuels. These conditions will support Elevated fire weather
conditions from portions of northeastern New Mexico northward to
southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle.

...Central and Southeastern Montana...
Similar to areas farther south across the central High Plains, a
strong, cross-terrain surface pressure gradient will support at
least a few hours of strong downslope winds. However, given recent
light precipitation and forecast RH values of 20-30%, any elevated
fire weather concerns are expected to remain local.

..Chalmers/Barnes.. 02/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...