No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 1 00:16:01 UTC 2026.MD 0925 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 010012Z - 010245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should develop this evening
across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These storms will be
capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado
cannot be ruled out with any sustained discrete storms. A watch will
likely be needed at some point this evening.
DISCUSSION...A diffuse outflow boundary is draped from
McPherson/Saline Counties in Kansas east to St. Clair/Henry Counties
in west-central Missouri and then southeast from there toward the
ongoing convection across northeast Arkansas and northwest
Tennessee. Extending south/southwest from this boundary is a
dryline/wind shift which extends Chase/Marion Counties, KS, through
Sedgewick County, KS, into north-central Oklahoma.
Extreme instability has developed along and south of this outflow
boundary, and to the east of the dryline/wind shift this afternoon.
MLCAPE values in excess of 4500 J/kg are in place across southeast
Kansas to the south of the outflow boundary, with 2500-3000 J/kg
across far northeast Kansas to its north. Objective analyses
indicates midlevel flow on the order of 35-40 knots across much of
Kansas, which when combined with southerly to easterly low-level
winds results in 40-50 knots of deep-layer shear.
Recent satellite imagery across Kansas has shown an increase in
vertical development with the cumulus fields along the dryline/wind
shift across Sedgewick County. Recent radar depictions suggest
initiation is underway, with lightning now observed. Additional
clustering/clumping of the cumulus field is also occuring to the
northeast of Sedgewick County, across Butler County. The expectation
is that one or both of these areas will develop into sustained
thunderstorms over the next 1-2 hours, posing a risk of very large
hail and strong/gusty thunderstorm outflows. These storms should
move north-northeast, with additional thunderstorm development
possible on the outflow of these storms.
Recent high-resolution model guidance shows the potential for
additional thunderstorm development along the outflow boundary
across east-central Kansas or west-central Missouri later this
evening. Should this activity develop, very large hail and damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible.
Although low-level flow is relative weak, extreme instability in the
presence of an outflow boundary may support an isolated tornado
threat, particularly with any discrete storm that can sustain
itself.
A watch will likely be needed at some point this evening across
portions of the highlighted area, although the exact timing and
location of a watch remains somewhat uncertain. The area will be
monitored closely.
..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37089753 37659751 38609706 39239655 39629573 39689466
39479427 39139399 38579394 38129420 37539472 37059552
37089753
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain
possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western
and central Missouri.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no major
changes or additions made to the outlook.
..Squitieri.. 05/31/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/
...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight...
A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern
Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central
Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection
persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast,
and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some
potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z
soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther
southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into
the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual
modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast
edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated
thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the
environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing
very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will
become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection
zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two
will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into
tonight.
...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening...
Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern
NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded
shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support
scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear
will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow
will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker
farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be
stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge
from the west.
...West TX this afternoon/evening...
High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline
later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the
mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for
isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent
storm clusters.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOM EASTERN
WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and
central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the eastern states is forecast to become a
cut-off low near or just offshore the Carolinas on Tuesday, with a
weak ridge extending from the southern Plains into the upper Great
Lakes. To the west, a shortwave trough will move out of MT and the
Dakotas and into southern Canada.
At the surface, high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes into
the OH/TN Valleys, with dry air pushing across the MS Valley and
toward the Gulf Coast. A plume of relatively moist air will remain
from TX into the central Plains, with mid 60s F dewpoints as far
north as western KS and mid 50s F to the cold front in the Dakotas.
...Northern to Central High Plains...
Severe storms are most likely ahead of a cold front Tuesday
afternoon from eastern WY into the central Dakotas. This area will
reside beneath the relatively stronger flow aloft, and midlevel
lapse rates will be steep. Southerly pre-frontal winds veering to
westerly with height will create wind profiles favorable for a few
supercells and bows forming over far eastern WY and spreading into
the Dakotas during the evening. The low-level jet will not be very
strong, but perhaps sufficient for a couple tornadoes.
Farther south, scattered storms are likely into the central and
southern High Plains as strong heating, southeast surface winds with
50s F dewpoints and a weak surface trough aid development by late
afternoon. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible
as lapse rates aloft remain steep, but shear marginal.
...Northern FL and Vicinity...
A cold front will push south during the day, as heating aids
moderate destabilization. Modest west to northwest flow aloft around
the southern periphery of the trough over the Carolinas will support
mobile clusters of storms mainly over the FL Panhandle and northern
FL by late afternoon and lasting through early evening. Storms may
produce locally strong wind gusts near peak heating, and a few cells
may produce marginal hail into northeast FL given relatively
stronger mid to high level flow. Isolated cells may also develop
along the east coast sea breeze.
..Jewell.. 05/31/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
A semi-stagnant synoptic pattern will continue through the end of
this week. An upper low will lift into southwestern Canada on Day
3/Tuesday, meanwhile a blocking ridge remains over the Central U.S.
and Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure and associated dry
conditions amid light winds will dominate over the Great Lakes
through at least Day 4/Wednesday, then the aforementioned upper low
translates eastward along the US/Canada border, pushing the surface
high southward. A North Atlantic trough will transition into an
upper low as it moves offshore the Eastern Seaboard on Day
4/Wednesday. Much of the Plains and Mid-South will continue to see
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with deeper boundary
layer moisture in place, keeping broader fire weather concerns low.
A robust upper trough is expected to approach the Northwest on Day
6/Friday bringing a possible pattern shift, albeit extended guidance
diverges on overall timing and progression.
...Portions of the Southwest and Colorado Plateau...
A warming and drying trend across much of the Intermountain West and
Southwest will continue through the period. Diffuse surface pressure
gradients will maintain lighter winds with above normal temperatures
and dry conditions, supporting the drying and curing of fuels. An
intrusion of deeper atmospheric moisture into the Southwest on Day
3/Tuesday will promote thunderstorms and appreciable precipitation
in eastern NM. However, guidance depicts moisture will be less
significant west of the Divide, with forecast soundings portraying a
prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs of 0.5-0.8" amid daytime
instability, allowing some possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms
to evolve. 10% probabilities for Dry Thunderstorms have been
maintained across far eastern AZ into western NM to account for this
threat. Conditions may continue through Day 4/Wednesday, however
higher PWATs and slower storm motions preclude the introduction of
additional Dry Thunderstorm probabilities.
...Great Lakes region...
As the blocking pattern gradually breaks down, surface high pressure
should reinforce warm and dry conditions across the region through
mid-week. The upper ridge will begin to flatten on Day 4/Wednesday
as an upper low traverses southern Canada. Very warm daytime
temperatures and RH declining to near critical values on Day
5/Thursday could allow fire weather concerns to emerge where
favorable fuels exist. However, misaligned breezy winds/critical RH
preclude the introduction of probabilities at this time, though
trends will be monitored in future outlook cycles.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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