Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast over the US Monday.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will deepen as it moves onshore across CA Monday
and Monday night. At the same time, substantial ridging will
intensify over the central CONUS. At the surface, a weak surface low
will develop over northwest NV with a trailing cold front moving
onshore across southern CA. Limited surface moisture and generally
poor thermodynamic profiles will be in place across the West, likely
precluding anything more than a sporadic lightning flash. Another
cold front will continue to more southward through the Gulf
associated with a weakening shortwave trough over the Southeast.
Strong surface high pressure over the OH Valley will bolster
offshore flow over much of the central and eastern US. The cool, dry
and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential inland.

..Lyons.. 11/15/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
The upper trough over the West Coast is forecast to move eastward
across the Southwest and into the Rockies Tuesday. An associated
surface low will deepen over the central/northern High Plains
supporting increasing southerly flow over the Southwest. While still
quite limited, some increase in surface moisture is expected ahead
of the trough and cold front. The increasing ascent and cooler
mid-level temperatures should be sufficient for weak destabilization
and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday
across the Four Corners and Western Slope. Given the expected very
weak buoyancy, severe storms are not anticipated.

Late Tuesday into early Wednesday a second upper low and associated
cold front will approach the West Coast. Weak buoyancy is again
forecast across northern CA and OR, which may be sufficient to
support occasional lightning.

To the east, strong high pressure will remain entrenched across the
Midwest with offshore flow and dry/stable conditions dominating much
of the US. The exception will be across the southern and eastern
peninsula of Florida. Here, onshore flow may allow for modest
destabilization with a few thunderstorms possible along the sea
breeze through the afternoon. Severe storms are unlikely.

..Lyons.. 11/15/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift
toward the Southeast as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops
over the West. A surface low across the northern Plains will
strengthen southerly low-level flow D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday.
While initially moisture will be quite limited owing to the prior
weekend frontal intrusion, the lead shortwave trough should allow a
partially modified Gulf air mass to return across the central Plains
ahead of another upper trough emerging from the Southwest by 12z
D6/Friday.

...Plains to the Midwest...
Medium-range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that as the
second trough crosses the Rockies, a relatively deep lee cyclone
should develop over the central Plains D6/Friday. Southerly
low-level flow with a corridor of 50-60 F surface dewpoints and
steepening mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for
destabilization and scattered thunderstorms ahead of an associated
cold front and lee trough. 60-70 kt mid-level winds overlapping with
the aforementioned buoyancy suggests isolated severe storms are
possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday
afternoon and evening. However, model guidance is not clear on the
extent and degree of the destabilization. Isolated severe potential
may also continue as the upper-level system moves eastward
D7/Saturday over the mid MS Valley and Midwest, but confidence
remains too low for 15% probabilities at this time.