No watches are valid as of Sat May 2 22:32:02 UTC 2026.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 2 22:32:02 UTC 2026.SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms remain possible across the northern and
central Florida Peninsula through early evening.
...20Z Update...
The primary change to the outlook was to trim thunder and severe
probabilities where storms have contributed to boundary layer
stabilization, particularly over the central FL Peninsula. Category
1/Marginal risk probabilities have been maintained ahead of a broken
band of storms. Here, an adequate overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer
shear remains to support multicells and transient supercells capable
of producing an instance or two of hail, gusty winds, or a brief
tornado.
..Squitieri.. 05/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/
...Northern/Central Florida...
At midday, a line of gradually intensifying storms extends
northeast-southwestward across the northern Florida Peninsula to the
nearby Gulf, with additional offshore development occurring about as
far south as the Tampa Bay vicinity. This line will continue to move
inland and further intensify as the boundary layer warms inland in
conjunction with near-70F surface dewpoints. Some additional
more-discrete development may occur ahead of the line, potentially
focusing along the east coast. Damaging winds are the most probable
severe hazard as low/mid-level winds further strengthen, albeit with
a tendency for low-level veering over time. Even so, a tornado or
two could occur aside from damaging winds.
...Western Oregon/northern California...
Influenced by upper-jet exit region and the prominent trough off the
coast of Oregon/California, a few stronger storms may develop across
the region late this afternoon through early evening. While gusty
winds and/or small hail could occur, the potential for organized
severe storms should remain low given the modest instability and
weak deep-layer shear.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.
...Synopsis...
A split flow pattern aloft will evolve on Monday. Cyclonic flow will
sag southward from the northern U.S. into the Upper Midwest and
parts of the Midwest. On the West Coast, an upper low will become
more of an open wave and move into the lower Colorado Valley. In
response to the intensifying upper low near the Upper Great Lakes, a
stronger cold front will move into the Lower Great Lakes, Midwest,
and central Plains.
...Eastern Kansas into central Ohio...
With an additional day of return flow, low-level moisture should be
increased from Sunday. Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable,
but low 60s are not out of the question in eastern Kansas/western
Missouri. Models differ in the intensity/placement of the
subtropical jet stream leading to differences in where the surface
cyclone/front will be positioned by late afternoon. Mid-level ascent
along the boundary will be weak through most of the day with some
increase noted mainly after 00Z. Even so, surface heating will be
sufficient to reach convective temperatures in parts of
Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Farther west, mid/upper clouds may be more
prevalent and afternoon development, uncertain as it is, will be
tied to mesoscale features such as the triple point. During the
evening, an intensifying low-level jet should promote greater storm
development/coverage along the boundary. Storms would be capable of
large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
..Wendt.. 05/02/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper low will move onshore the West Coast on Day 3/Monday, then
transition to an open wave as it traverses the Southwest on Day
4/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag into the Midwest
and Great Lakes region before merging with southern stream troughing
over the Mid-South on Day 5/Wednesday. This pattern will provide
additional precipitation to the central Plains and portions of the
Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, likely resulting in above normal
temperatures and dry conditions to prevail through the forecast
period for much of western CONUS.
Fire weather conditions reemerge for portions of the southern Plains
on Day 3/Monday as a deepening surface low tightens surface pressure
gradients across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Downslope
westerly winds of 15-20 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a
confined region of dry fuels, maintaining 40% Critical
probabilities. Due to recent precipitation, probabilities were
trimmed to exclude areas that received appreciable rainfall. Dry and
breezy conditions may persist for parts of the Southern Plains into
West Texas on Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday as southwesterly flow aloft
amplifies. However, guidance ambiguity in the placement of the upper
trough and timing of an approaching cold front precludes the
introduction of critical probabilities at this time.
As the upper trough traverses the Mid-South, increasing
southwesterly flow and poor moisture return should promote dry and
breezy conditions across the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Tuesday. However,
critical probabilities have been withheld due to recent appreciable
rainfall, marginal fuels, and expected moisture return overnight Day
4/Tuesday into Day 5/Wednesday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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