No watches are valid as of Wed May 13 16:44:01 UTC 2026.MD 0711 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST PA...SOUTHEAST OH...AND PARTS OF WV
Mesoscale Discussion 0711
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Areas affected...southwest PA...southeast OH...and parts of WV
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131641Z - 131915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts and hail are possible this
afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing near and just ahead of a
surface cold front from far western NY into eastern OH. Pockets of
stronger heating have occurred ahead of this activity across
southwest PA into OH and parts of WV where some clearing has
occurred in the wake of early day cloudiness and showers. This has
allowed temperatures to warm into the low/mid 60s amid 50s
dewpoints. While boundary layer moisture will remain modest, cold
temperatures aloft will support steepened midlevel lapse rates. As a
result, modest destabilization is underway within a narrow corridor
ahead of the front. Instability is likely to remain modest, with
generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE expected by peak heating. While
upper level flow will be moderate, low-level flow is expected to be
somewhat less compared to further north closer to the surface low.
In fact, forecast guidance indicates 850 mb flow will weaken through
the day. Nevertheless, effective shear magnitudes will be sufficient
for some organized storm structures. However, limited instability
and modest boundary layer moisture will likely preclude more
substantial severe potential. Locally strong wind gusts and
marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest cells,
but overall severe is expected to remain sparse, negating watch
issuance at this time.
..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
LAT...LON 41228031 41027968 40987875 40837840 40407835 39927858
39127936 38598013 38218092 38078132 38158182 38348209
38658226 39038215 40188139 41228031
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0710 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0710
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Areas affected...portions of western/central NY into
northern/western PA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131556Z - 131830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms may bring locally gusty winds and
small hail to portions of western/central New York into western and
northern Pennsylvania this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is
not expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop just ahead of a
surface cold front from far western NY into northeast OH. While 12z
regional RAOBs and current regional VWPs indicate 30-40 kt
west/southwesterly flow in the 1-3 km range, instability remains
scant. Lingering cloudiness will limit stronger heating and
boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain modest this afternoon.
However, cold temperatures aloft will support modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates. As a result, a narrow band of weak MLCAPE
(less than 500 J/kg) is forecast just ahead of the cold front. This,
along with sufficient deep layer flow, should allow for an organized
band of thunderstorms developing eastward across the region this
afternoon. Given cool surface temperatures, poor low-level lapse
rates, and limited instability, overall severe potential appears
low. However, given the strength of deep layer flow and cold
temperatures aloft, the strongest cells could produce locally gusty
winds and perhaps small hail through the afternoon.
..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 43007727 43367625 43357573 43227550 42347587 41557688
41277735 40927833 40907971 41048023 41178028 41288029
41418016 43007727
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
across portions of the northern High Plains and Great Basin this
afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail
risk occur over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.
...WV/PA/NY...
A large upper trough is deepening as it tracks southeastward across
the Great Lakes and Midwest into the Upper Ohio Valley. The
associated surface cold front is sweeping across OH, and will extend
from central NY into western PA and northern WV later today. Clouds
are currently prevalent across this region, but some
clearing/heating is expected as low-level moisture is transported
into the area. The result will be narrow corridor of sufficient
CAPE for thunderstorm development along the front from NY into WV.
Given the strength of the upper trough and winds aloft, there is
concern for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and
perhaps hail...mainly in the 18-00z period.
...Great Basin...
A second strong and progressive upper trough has moved ashore over
OR/WA and will spread mid-level height falls and large scale ascent
across much of the Great Basin and Rockies today and tonight.
Low-level moisture is very sparse ahead of the system, but pockets
of strong heating from northern UT into eastern ID/western WY and
central MT will result in inverted-v profiles and sufficient CAPE
for isolated charge separation and robust updrafts. CAM solutions
suggest a risk of high-based fast-moving showers and occasional
thunderstorms affecting the region, with the risk of severe wind
gusts.
...TX Panhandle...
A surface dryline will become established over the TX panhandle
later today, where temperatures will climb well into the 90s.
Forecast soundings show only modest CAPE and limited risk of
convective initiation over this area. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL
risk for this conditional risk.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/13/2026
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
from the Great Basin into northern Rockies this afternoon and
evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail risk may occur
over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.
...WV/PA/NY...
Recent surface analysis places a low over northern Lake
Huron/central Ontario, with a cold front extending back
southwestward through western OH and western KY. Current satellite
shows the associated shortwave trough extending from central Ontario
into the Mid MS Valley. This imagery also shows two embedded
vorticity maxima, one near the surface low over central Ontario and
the other farther southwest over IL/IN. This shortwave is expected
to mature throughout the day, trending towards a more neutral tilt
by this evening, while also gradually shifting eastward. The
associated cold front is forecast to shift quickly eastward as well.
At least scattered clouds will likely persist throughout the day,
somewhat tempering the overall daytime heating. Even so, modest
low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 50s) ahead of the
cold front will support a corridor of sufficient buoyancy for
thunderstorm development ahead of the front from western PA and WV
eastward across PA and into southern/central NY. Linear forcing
along the front and relatively modest deep-layer shear will favor a
multicellular line segment mode. Potential exists for a few deeper
updrafts capable of damaging gusts, but the limited heating ahead of
the front, modest buoyancy, and displacement south and east of the
stronger low to mid-level flow should keep the overall severe
potential isolated. A few isolated instances of hail are possible
early in the convective cycle before the more linear structures
dominate.
Recently issued MCD #0710 addresses this area as well.
...Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined, negatively tilted
shortwave trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest. This wave
is forecast to continue eastward through ID and MT today. Strong
heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is expected ahead of this
wave from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At the same
time, mid-level moisture associated with the wave will advect
eastward/northeastward, resulting in large area of deep inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles that are also buoyant enough to support
convection and isolated lightning. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany the shortwave, with moderate mid-level flow extending
southward from the primary wave through UT and far western CO.
Scattered convection is expected as lift associated with the wave
begins to interact with this destabilizing airmass, likely starting
around 20/21Z from western MT into northern UT. This convection,
which should include lightning-producing updrafts, will then spread
eastward/northeastward with time. Strong to severe gusts are
possible across this entire region, with the highest likelihood for
severe gusts from central/southern ID into central MT where the
strongest mid-level flow is expected.
...TX Panhandle...
Deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the TX Panhandle
today, with temperatures climbing into the 90s. Low-level moisture
advection should result in higher dewpoints across the eastern
Panhandle, with the resultant dryline acting as a focus for
convergence and attempts at convective initiation. The overall
environment does not look conducive for initiation and majority of
the CAMs do not show storm development. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 05/13/2026
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