Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south
Florida.

...DISCUSSION...
West-northwest mid-level flow will remain in place over much of the
U.S. today, as a cold front moves southward into the south Florida.
A few thunderstorms will be possible near the front this afternoon.
Isolated storms may also develop over parts of far southern
Louisiana, and in Arizona as a subtle shortwave trough approaches
from the southwest. No severe threat is forecast across the
continental U.S. today or tonight.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/29/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to progress along the
U.S./Canadian border Monday through early Tuesday morning. Ahead of
this wave, a surface cyclone will steadily intensify across the
Plains as it migrates towards the upper MS Valley. Northward
moisture return over the next 48 hours ahead of the surface low will
likely result in mid to upper 50 dewpoints reaching the upper MS
Valley and Great Lakes region by early evening. Concurrently,
westerly flow aloft will advect 7-8 C/km lapse rates eastward
towards the Great Lakes region. This combination of low-level
moistening and steepening lapse rates aloft will yield a buoyant air
mass within the warm conveyor region of the developing cyclone. 

Capping and mostly dry low-level conditions will preclude
thunderstorm development during the day. After 00 UTC, a
strengthening of the low-level jet will augment low-level moistening
and isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb across the upper MS Valley
and Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development is expected between
the 03-06 UTC period across northeast IA into southern WI/northern
IL along the warm frontal zone. Westerly effective bulk shear values
on the order of 30-40 knots will likely support storm organization,
including the potential for elevated supercells initially, with an
attendant large hail risk. With time, storm motions along the zonal
frontal zone will promote upscale growth into one or more clusters
as convection spreads east into MI. Some damaging wind threat may
materialize with this activity depending on its proximity to the
surface warm front. 

A more isolated hail threat appears likely across northern lower MI
after 06 UTC as more focused isentropic ascent spreads north.
Although convection will be elevated, elongated hodographs through
the CAPE-bearing layer will promote organized cells with mainly a
large hail threat.

..Moore.. 03/29/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are
expected through the day and into the early evening hours Tuesday
across the Great Lakes region.

...Synopsis...
A surface low is forecast to deepen across the central/northern
Plains through the day Monday ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave.
By early Tuesday, this low will begin accelerating eastward,
reaching southern Quebec by 12 UTC Wednesday. A cold front trailing
the surface cyclone will push south into the Plains and eastward
across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Thunderstorm potential will be
most pronounced along and ahead of the front, though more isolated
thunderstorms will be possible along a dryline across portions of
TX, across portions of the Southeast, and over the northern Great
Basin.

...Great Lakes...
Residual thunderstorms from Monday night may be ongoing by 12 UTC
across the Great Lakes region along and north of the surface warm
front. Most guidance suggests that northward moisture advection will
occur ahead of the approaching cold front as the surface low lifts
east/northeast with MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg likely by
21-00 UTC. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the
front by early afternoon, and 35-45 knot effective bulk shear should
promote organized convection - most likely in the form of organized
clusters and/or linear segments. Large hail and severe winds will
most likely be the predominant hazards given the expectation for
clustered/linear storm modes, though some tornado threat may emerge
across the lower Great Lakes region where low-level SRH will be
regionally greatest on the northeastern fringe of the returning
moisture.  

...Southern Plains...
A weak surface trough/dryline will likely emerge across the TX
Panhandle/western OK southward into west-central TX by late
afternoon as a weak lee low deepens over the southern High Plains.
Richer low-level moisture will likely be displaced to the east away
from the boundary, and warm temperatures at the base of an EML will
most likely preclude thunderstorm development until the arrival of
the cold front Tuesday evening. However, a few deterministic
solutions hint that diurnal heating may be strong enough to support
isolated convection along the dryline by late afternoon. Wind
profiles across this region hint that organized thunderstorms are
possible and could pose a severe threat. While this potential is
noted, ensemble support for this scenario is low, and any convection
that does develop will most likely struggle to be maintained owing
to weak forcing for ascent and fairly dry low/mid-level conditions.

..Moore.. 03/29/2026