WW 696 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 231855Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Western New Mexico
Far West Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop this
afternoon. Strong vertical shear may support supercells capable of
producing very large hail and sporadic damaging thunderstorm
outflow.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south southwest
of El Paso TX to 50 miles northeast of Cuba NM. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
22035.
...Marsh
WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0696 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 2406 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Areas affected...south-central New Mexico and far west Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696...
Valid 232234Z - 240030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696
continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for large hail, severe wind, and perhaps a brief
tornado continues within WW696.
DISCUSSION...Supercells continue across southern New Mexico this
afternoon, with several splits and supercell mergers ongoing. VAD
profiles from ABX and EPZ depict linear and elongated hodographs,
supporting continued splitting supercells. Winds aloft veer to
southwesterly just off the surface. Surface observations near the
Rio Grande Valley are more southeasterly. If the
supercells/supercell clusters west of El Paso can deviate more
strongly eastward, a slight increase in low-level SRH and potential
for a tornado where dew points are near 50 F. Moisture becomes more
limited with eastern and northern extent where dew points are more
around the mid 40s F. Overall, the main threats will likely remain
large hail and severe wind.
..Thornton.. 10/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 32660817 33340829 33580814 33770771 33840741 33860699
33830664 33770638 33610614 33270585 32740576 32210572
31670578 31490582 31410589 31260682 31280722 31310767
31360808 32660817
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 2405 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696... FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Areas affected...much of northern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696...
Valid 232232Z - 240100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696
continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered cells should continue to produce hail over 1.00"
diameter through this evening.
DISCUSSION...Two north-south zones of cells persist, forming over
the higher terrain both west and east of the Rio Grande Valley.
Backed winds aloft along with low-level southerlies are resulting in
straight hodographs with northeastward motions averaging 215/22 kt.
Boundary-layer dewpoints remain mixed into the 40s F with some low
50s into southern/eastern NM. MLCAPE is near 1000 J/kg, with
seasonably cool temperatures aloft. Cellular storm mode should
continue to favor hail as the primary risk, with hail at or above
1.00" likely.
Some CAMs suggest aggregating outflow later this evening, which
could potentially result in strong wind gusts. By that time,
instability will have weakened, and severe gust potential would
appear to be minimal.
..Jewell.. 10/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36620353 34140414 34020452 33910712 34160751 34810732
35550726 36450725 36800684 37070495 37000395 36620353
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging gusts, and an
isolated tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico,
southern Colorado, and far west Texas today into tonight.
...20z Update...
Latest HRRR/RRFS TLE guidance suggests that a locally more favorable
corridor for left-split supercells may manifest across portions of
central/east-central NM to the north of ongoing convective
development along the Sacramento Mountains. Given the risk for large
to very large hail likely to accompany persistent, left-split
supercells, the existing CIG1 group for hail was expanded eastward
across portions of central/eastern New Mexico to capture this
corridor. No other changes were made to the existing outlook with
this update as the forecast remains generally on track. See the
previous discussion below for additional details.
..Chalmers.. 10/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026/
...NM and far west TX this afternoon into early tonight...
An initial shortwave trough will continue to eject
north-northeastward over WY as an upstream wave evolves into a new
closed low over the lower CO River Valley. A surface cyclone will
develop from eastern MT into MB in advance of the lead shortwave
trough, with a trailing baroclinic zone across CO/northwest NM and
central AZ. A moisture plume persists along and southeast of the
baroclinic zone, with the most favorable moisture profiles for
thunderstorm development expected this afternoon/evening across NM.
Forcing for ascent will be relatively weak across NM this afternoon,
so surface heating and terrain influences will drive widely
scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon as
temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s (depending on elevation).
Observed boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s and the warming
temperatures will contribute to MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition. Long, straight hodographs will
persist beneath a belt of enhanced mid-upper flow and will favor
supercells this afternoon in NM, with some potential for growth into
small clusters/line segments. Large hail and occasional severe
outflow gusts are expected to be the primary threats, though an
isolated tornado may also occur. The severe threat will peak late
afternoon and diminish by early tonight.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for
hail, are possible on Sunday across southern/eastern New Mexico and
far west Texas.
...New Mexico/west Texas..
It appears that Sunday will be an overall downtrend in terms of
regional severe risk, but at least some severe risk is still
expected mainly across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west
Texas. The persistent southern-stream trough over the Southwest will
likely become more northeastward-progressive over the Four Corners
while deamplifying/weakening toward the central/southern High Plains
on Sunday.
Severe-conducive destabilization is expected particularly across
south-central/southeast New Mexico and far west Texas Sunday
afternoon, with greater uncertainty with north-northeastward extent
due to the potential for lingering early day cloud cover and
precipitation. Where adequate destabilization does occur, moderately
strong/vertically veering wind profiles (35-45 kt effective shear)
will support organized storm modes including a few supercells.
Current thinking is that large hail is the most probable severe
risk, primarily Sunday afternoon and early evening.
..Guyer.. 10/23/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Reduced fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS on Saturday
with a limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions over receptive
fuels. Dry northeast low-level flow on the southern periphery of
surface high pressure across the eastern U.S., will keep Gulf
moisture shunted to the south through Saturday across much of the
Southeast into the lower MS River Valley. As above normal
temperatures rise into the lower 80s, resultant RH reductions to
20-30% will develop within the Lower MS River Valley into the
ArkLaTex region where receptive fuels exist (ERCs in the 90-95th
percentile). However, east/northeast winds will remain light at or
below 10 mph over much of the region limiting a broader fire weather
threat.
..Williams.. 10/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Saturday. A
cold front will bring cooler conditions and increasing relative
humidity across the Northern High Plains. Breezy northeast winds
will overlap dry fuels across portions of southern Georgia Saturday
afternoon. Current forecast guidance indicates that afternoon RHs
will struggle to fall below 40-45% where winds are anticipated to be
the strongest (10-15 mph), precluding the need for any drawn areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level short wave is expected to push east of the Continental
Divide early next week bringing precipitation to portions of the
Central Plains and Upper Midwest Day 3-4/Sunday-Monday. Surface high
pressure across the eastern U.S. coupled with continued ridging
aloft should sustain dry and warm conditions across much of the
region through next week. However, reduced surface pressure
gradients and lower wind magnitudes will largely counteract the
lower daytime RH over an increasingly receptive fuelscape, to limit
broader wildfire spread potential over the lower MS River Valley
into the Deep South.
Another upper-level wave will impact the Northwest Days
5-6/Tuesday-Wednesday ushering in additional rain and higher
elevation snow to the region. An associated mid-level jet at the
base of this trough is expected to advance towards the central
Rockies while related lee surface troughing develops across the
northern Plains. The resulting dry, downslope enhanced flow could
pose a fire weather threat to eastern WY and adjacent NE/SD border
areas Tuesday and Wednesday, although uncertainty in expected
rainfall distribution in the preceding days, and marginal fuels
raises some predictability challenges. In addition, cluster analysis
depicts considerable ensemble uncertainty for the middle of next
week regarding mid-level short wave placement and intensity across
the Intermountain West. Nonetheless, this area will continue to be
monitored for possible inclusion of critical probabilities.
..Williams.. 10/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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