No watches are valid as of Sun May 24 07:02:01 UTC 2026.MD 0845 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Areas affected...Parts of western North TX and far southwestern OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 240546Z - 240715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for sporadic strong-severe gusts will continue
for another hour or so.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms with a recent history of
producing measured gusts of 60-75 mph is tracking east-southeastward
across western North TX and far southwestern OK. While large-scale
forcing for ascent is weak and the low-level jet is not particularly
strong, recent radar data from LBB and FDR indicate a trailing
stratiform region and signs of an established (albeit modest)
rear-inflow jet. Related cold pool dynamics should continue to
support new updrafts along the leading gust front as it tracks
east-southeastward through a corridor of weakly unstable air, and
sporadic strong-severe gusts will remain possible before this
cluster weakens over the next couple hours.
..Weinman/Smith.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33180064 33470031 33840010 34510005 34649971 34589936
34329889 33859858 33469851 32889866 32579917 32589967
32630033 32910069 33180064
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains
and Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather.
...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow is undergoing gradual amplification across the
northern mid-latitude Pacific. It appears that this will continue
through this period, with a fairly significant mid-level trough and
associated cyclone approaching the British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest coast by late tonight. Downstream, mid-level heights will
tend to rise across the northern Rockies and much of the Missouri
Valley through Upper Midwest, with troughing farther east generally
receding into the eastern Canadian provinces and adjacent portions
of the Northeast.
In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, a notable mid-level
high is forecast to be maintained and remain centered to the
west-southwest of Bermuda. Upstream, it appears that weak upper
troughing will linger across eastern Texas through the western Gulf
Basin, with perhaps an associated mid-level cyclonic circulation
centered across the upper Texas coastal plain, as the leading edge
of broad weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern
Pacific progresses through the Southwest.
As the stronger mid-latitude westerlies become increasingly confined
to areas near and north of the western and central Canadian/U.S.
border area, and the lower Great Lakes/Northeast, seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content will generally remain confined to
the Gulf Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard. However,
modest low-level moisture return appears probable along and east of
weak lee surface troughing across the central Great Plains.
...Central Great Plains...
Substantive spread remains evident within latest model output,
including convection allowing guidance, concerning developments
which will influence convective potential this afternoon into
tonight. The risk for severe weather, in general, still seems
likely to be limited by weak forcing for ascent, seasonably modest
low-level moisture return, and modest to weak late afternoon into
early evening deep-layer mean wind fields.
However, due to veering of wind fields with height beneath modest
west to northwesterly mid/upper flow, vertical shear along and east
of the lee surface trough may become at least marginally sufficient
for organized convection, including supercells. And any
thunderstorm development persisting into mid/late evening may be
augmented by a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet
(including 30-40 kt around 850 mb).
In the presence of steep lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles
probably will become supportive of storms capable of producing large
hail during peak late afternoon instability into early evening,
particularly where it appears shear may be strongest across parts of
the middle Missouri Valley vicinity. Otherwise, widely scattered to
scattered storms may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind
gusts into mid to late evening, before instability wanes and
convection weakens.
...Southeast...
Severe weather potential across the Gulf Coast states into Southeast
today remains uncertain, with little clear signal evident in latest
model output. However, a notable cluster of storms, which has
weakened since becoming better organized offshore of the Louisiana
coast earlier this evening, has generated a meso-beta scale
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity center. It appears that
this may migrate inland across the western Florida Panhandle
vicinity near or shortly after daybreak, before continuing
northeastward during the day. As it does, based on potential
instability present in latest objective analysis, it could become a
focus for slowly intensifying and organizing thunderstorm
development which could eventually pose increasing potential to
produce damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/24/2026
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for
Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.
...Synopsis...
A high amplitude ridge will build in from the west across the Plains
on D2/Monday with height rises and weakening mid-level flow amid
warming surface temperatures. An upper level low will begin to
deepen and move inland across the Pacific Northwest. Widely
scattered areas of thunderstorm development can be expected from the
Southwest to the Central Plains/Upper Midwest and across the
Southeast. A few strong storms will be possible across the Plains to
the Midwest and in the Southeast.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region...
While moderate buoyancy will extend across much of the Plains into
the Midwest Monday afternoon, generally weak flow should temper the
more organized severe threat. Modest west-northwesterly flow will
overspread portions of MN/WI and Upper MI with a quick weak
mid-level wave moving through the Great Lakes trough. Generally, the
best forcing for ascent will be early with height rises expected by
the afternoon. This leads to low confidence in thunderstorm
development, though the air mass could conditionally support severe
potential.
...Southern NM into west TX...
An isolated strong storm or two could be possible from southern New
Mexico into western Texas as an embedded shortwave moves across the
Southwest. Deeply mixed profiles across New Mexico may support a
strong to severe gust. However, the deeper moisture remains
displaced to the east across western Texas.
...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected overnight
D1/Sunday into D2/Monday across the Gulf coast states. Depending on
how this evolves and where resulting MCVs occur, a corridor of
severe wind potential may be possible. For now confidence in the
placement of mesoscale features remains too low.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will transition eastward across the northern
Great Lakes today, with weak troughing also in place across the
southern California and the southern Plains. Simultaneously,
upper-level ridging will remain over the East Coast and much of the
High Plains. At the surface, a frontal system will extend from the
southern Great Plains northeastward into the Midwest and
Mid-Atlantic, with multiple mid-level perturbations bringing chances
for wetting rainfall to much of the South and the eastern US.
Similar to Saturday, warm temperatures under subtle ridging will
promote RH reductions to 10-20% across much of the West, but the
lack of a strong surface pressure gradient will largely limit
sustained wind speeds. This will preclude widespread fire weather
concerns. Locally elevated conditions may still be possible in
favored terrain/gap areas, however.
...North-central Montana...
Modest westerly mid-level flow will promote deepening lee troughing
across the southern Canadian Prairies and the northern High Plains
today, with dry and breezy conditions expected across northern
Montana. Sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph and minimum
RH values as low as 15% will promote localized elevated fire weather
concerns, mainly for areas where green up has been delayed by
drought.
...Northern Great Basin into Southern Idaho...
A plume of modest mid/upper-level subtropical moisture will extend
from the Sierra Nevada eastward into southern Idaho, southern
Wyoming, and the northern Colorado Rockies today. Diurnal heating
will promote weak buoyancy within this moisture corridor, which will
subsequently support isolated high-based convection this afternoon.
Fuels and ongoing green up will continue to limit the potential for
dry lightning ignitions. Thus, dry thunderstorm highlights continue
to be withheld.
..Chalmers.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
|
