Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central and southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

An upper low centered over UT and AZ Wednesday morning is forecast
to advance into CO while an embedded vorticity maximum pivots
through the basal portion of the low into the southern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains by Wednesday evening. Modest height falls and
strengthening midlevel flow will precede that disturbance, spreading
into the southern and central High Plains Wednesday afternoon and
evening. At the surface, a cold front will settle south through the
Mid-Atlantic and OH Valley. The position of the front over the
central and southern Plains will likely be modulated by ongoing
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday morning.


...Central and Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...

As mentioned above, considerable shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected to be ongoing at 12z Wednesday along and south of the
synoptic front. The presence of a seasonably moist and minimally
capped warm sector will likely allow thunderstorms to continue
through the forecast period, especially as forcing for ascent
increases Wednesday afternoon into evening. Corridors of moderate
instability appear possible by afternoon to the south of any more
persistent clouds and precipitation with associated outflow
boundaries potentially serving as foci for strong to potentially
severe storm development during the afternoon and evening. 

Latest model guidance suggests that the strongest vertical shear may
reside across a convectively overturned air mass closer to the
synoptic front with decreasing shear magnitudes with southward
extent where greater instability is more probable. Given these
potential issues/uncertainties, only level-1/Marginal Risk
probabilities will be included in this forecast.


...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...

Convective evolution on this segment of the cold front remains more
uncertain due to the absence of any appreciable forcing mechanisms
in 00Z model data. Nonetheless, a moist boundary layer will reside
to the south of the front, supporting pockets of moderate
instability in areas that experience stronger daytime heating. A
strong storm or two appears possible along the front during the
afternoon and evening hours with a risk for locally gusty winds. The
area will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for the possible
inclusion of severe weather probabilities.

..Mead.. 10/12/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A short-wave trough over central Canada on Day 4/Thursday morning is
forecast to undergo considerable amplification while progressing
southeast through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast by Day
5/Friday. That upper-air system will be attended by a surface low,
which is expected to develop along a front from the mid-MS Valley
through the OH Valley to off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a
strong cold front will surge south, reaching the Gulf Coast by
Friday night or early Saturday. In its wake, a drier, continental-
polar airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies,
limiting the threat for severe thunderstorms this weekend into early
next week.

...Day 4/Thursday and Thursday night...

Despite the potential for early-day showers and thunderstorms, a
seasonably moist boundary layer is forecast along and to the south
of the front and surface low in the mid-MS and OH Valleys. The
moisture combined with daytime heating will contribute to at least
modest air mass destabilization by afternoon. Both vertical shear
and forcing for ascent will strengthen through the period with the
approach of the midlevel trough. As such, some severe weather
appears possible on Thursday with the threat possibly continuing
through Thursday night from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At
least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the
subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.


...Day 5/Friday...

As mentioned above, some severe weather threat could develop over
the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night or Friday morning with
additional strong to severe storms possible by afternoon along the
front in the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.


...Days 6 to 8/Saturday to Monday...

No severe weather is currently expected.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will migrate slowly southward across the
western Great Basin today, with strong southwesterly flow aloft
extending from the Southwest into the central Great Plains. Coupled
with a remnant subtropical moisture plume, this will continue to
favor chances for rainfall and higher elevation snowfall across much
of the Intermountain West and northern Plains, which will largely
suppress fire weather concerns across the West. Farther east, above
normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue across portions
of the lower Mississippi River Valley and Midwest, but the lack of a
stronger surface pressure gradient and resultant limited sustained
wind speeds are expected to largely temper fire weather concerns.

...Central High Plains...
Strong southwesterly flow aloft (50-60 kts at the nose of a
prominent 500 mb jet) will overspread the central Rockies/High
Plains today, aiding in modest strengthening of a lee surface low
across the central Plains. This will foster enhanced
west-southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph across portions of the
central High Plains from northeastern New Mexico into east-central
Colorado, western Kansas, and adjacent portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles. Downslope warming/drying will also aid in RH values
falling to 20-25% (locally to 15% across northeastern/east-central
Colorado, northwestern Kansas, and southwestern Nebraska). Given
these factors, locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely
to manifest this afternoon, but generally marginal fuel
receptiveness across this region precludes a broader fire weather
threat at this time.

..Chalmers.. 10/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...