WW 100 SEVERE TSTM TX 120325Z - 120900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
The Edwards Plateau of Texas
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1025 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of storms with embedded bowing
segments/circulations will spread eastward into areas near and north
through northeast of Del Rio through the early morning hours.
Occasional damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, an isolated tornado or two,
and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter will be possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north northwest
of Junction TX to 20 miles south southwest of Del Rio TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Thompson
WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE LBL
TO 15 NE DDC TO 15 WNW HUT TO 30 W BIE TO 15 NNW BIE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372
..CHALMERS..04/10/26
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-009-013-025-027-041-043-053-061-085-087-113-117-119-131-
143-149-159-161-169-201-100340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BARTON BROWN
CLARK CLAY DICKINSON
DONIPHAN ELLSWORTH GEARY
JACKSON JEFFERSON MCPHERSON
MARSHALL MEADE NEMAHA
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RICE
RILEY SALINE WASHINGTON
MOC003-005-021-087-147-100340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
HOLT NODAWAY
WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..04/11/26
ATTN...WFO...GID...TOP...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC089-147-157-183-201-112340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEWELL PHILLIPS REPUBLIC
SMITH WASHINGTON
NEC001-019-035-059-061-067-079-081-083-095-099-129-137-151-169-
181-185-112340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY
FILLMORE FRANKLIN GAGE
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
JEFFERSON KEARNEY NUCKOLLS
PHELPS SALINE THAYER
WEBSTER YORK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
MD 0384 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX HILL COUNTRY AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Areas affected...TX Hill Country and vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 120300Z - 120500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some uptick in the severe threat is possible late tonight.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing late this evening across
parts of the TX Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. With potential MCV
development associated with the ongoing convection, and a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the region from
northern Mexico, widespread convection is expected to continue into
the early overnight hours and eventually spread eastward into a
larger portion of central TX.
While strong embedded cells have occasionally been noted within the
larger area of convection, storms have struggled to attain severe
intensity thus far. The 00Z DRT sounding depicted a remnant EML in
the 700-500 mb layer, but poor lapse rates both below and above this
layer are constraining available buoyancy, with MLCAPE generally in
the 500-1000 J/kg range (locally greater near the international
border). Still, effective shear of 30-40 kt will support occasional
supercell structures, with potential for localized hail.
Strengthening low-level shear/SRH (as noted on the KDFX and KEWX
VWPs) could also support a brief tornado threat with any persistent
supercells.
Upscale growth one or more bowing segments, or possibly a QLCS, will
be possible with time as storm coverage continues to increase within
the moist environment. This could result in an increasing threat of
strong to locally severe gusts and perhaps a line-embedded tornado,
though generally weak low-level lapse rates may temper these threats
to some extent.
The need for watch issuance across this region remains uncertain due
to the potentially limited magnitude of the threat, but trends will
be monitored for an uptick in organized convection late tonight.
..Dean/Thompson.. 04/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29470158 30310079 31170031 31750012 32199979 32159889
32149893 31529860 30829860 29829931 29169983 28900083
29470158
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight
across portions central Texas while more isolated severe
thunderstorms are expected across the southern and central Plains
and into the upper Mississippi River Valley.
...Synopsis...
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible late this evening and
into the overnight hours across parts of the central CONUS. A lee
cyclone will continue to deepen across the northern High Plains and
maintain northward moisture return across the Plains as well as a
focused zone of strong isentropic ascent across the upper MS Valley.
Buoyant conditions and modest, but adequate, deep-layer wind shear
should continue to support the potential for organized convection.
...Texas...
The early stages of MCV development are noted in regional
reflectivity across the Big Bend region of TX where a convective
clustering has been focused over the past several hours. The nearby
00z DRT RAOB recently sampled a 0-6 km bulk shear value on the order
of 45 knots, which is favorable for organized convection. This
kinematic environment remains favorable for organized convection and
could support intensification/organization of a convective line
associated with the MCV as it migrates eastward into a more
moist/buoyant environment. This scenario is supported by recent CAM
guidance, and warrants maintaining/expanding 15% wind probabilities
downstream of the MCV.
...Oklahoma into Kansas...
Modestly moist and uncapped conditions were recently sampled across
northern TX and central OK with effective bulk shear values on the
order of 25 knots. Continued northward moisture advection should
modulate nocturnal stabilization, and increasing ascent ahead of the
upper wave emanating out of northern Mexico may support isolated
strong to severe convection through the late evening and overnight
hours.
...Upper MS Valley...
VWPs across the Midwest and upper MS Valley all show a strong
veering within the lowest 1-2 km and a recent uptick in wind speed
within this layer. Additionally, upstream RAOBs sampled 7-8 C/km
lapse rates that should be advecting eastward into the region
through the overnight hours. The combination of continued ascent and
increasing instability should promote the potential for additional
elevated convection late tonight with an attendant threat for hail
approach severe limits.
...California...
The 00z OAK RAOB sampled weak buoyancy with around 150 J/kg SBCAPE.
However, temperatures near 700 mb should continue to cool through
the overnight hours with the approach of an upper wave just off the
coast. Continued ascent within the left-exit region of the attendant
upper jet will maintain the potential for isolated convection along
the CA coast and areas inland. Additionally, 35-45 knot flow within
the lowest few kilometers will likely be maintained through the
overnight. Given the expectation of a slight increase in buoyancy
and maintenance of low-level flow, opted to keep the 5% wind risk.
..Moore.. 04/12/2026
|
