Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are currently not expected on
Thursday.

... Synopsis ...

The closed mid-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will
begin to lift north/northeast on Thursday. As it does, strong
southerly mid-level flow will force height rises across the northern
US Rockies and southwest Canada. These rising heights will allow the
mid-level ridge across much of the US to redevelop northwestward
--from the Midwest toward the northern US Rockies. 

At the same time, the second strong mid-level trough this week will
move across New England, bringing with it a reinforcing shot of
seasonably cool and dry air. A surface cold front will push
southward through New England, ending up in the vicinity of the
Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning.

The airmass across much of the US, especially areas east of the
Rockies, will be very warm and moist with afternoon temperatures
generally 5-15 degrees above normal outside of areas with widespread
cloud cover and precipitation. Mid-level flow will be generally weak
across areas of the US with adequate buoyancy for thunderstorm
development. Thus, the severe weather potential on Thursday remains
too low to warrant unconditional severe weather probabilities.

..Marsh.. 07/14/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level
pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the
north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough.
However the details of how this transition evolves are still
uncertain.

The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest
flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and
areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble
suite, including the control members, show several small
vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick
succession, with significant variability in the strength of these
waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial
shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this
will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS
have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does
so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and
Tuesday.

Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development,
perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to
highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.