WW 81 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 312135Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 81
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
435 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Oklahoma
Western North Texas and Panhandle
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to further develop and intensify
through early evening across the southeast Texas Panhandle/Low
Rolling Plains into western Oklahoma, with large hail and locally
damaging winds as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles northeast of
Clinton OK to 70 miles south of Childress TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 79...WW 80...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Guyer
WW 80 SEVERE TSTM OH PA LE 311900Z - 010100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 80
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Ohio
Northwest Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over northwest Ohio will track eastward
through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of locally
damaging wind gusts and hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of
Findlay OH to 40 miles south southeast of Erie PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 78...WW 79...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
WW 79 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LE LO 311820Z - 010100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 79
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central New York
Northern Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to track across Lake Erie and
into western New York, then spread eastward across the watch through
the afternoon. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging
wind gusts and hail. A tornado or two is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of
Jamestown NY to 60 miles southeast of Utica NY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 78...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..03/22/26
ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 74
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC023-025-029-033-035-045-047-049-055-059-065-077-079-081-101-
145-159-165-185-191-193-199-230040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CLAY COLES
CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR
EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
PERRY RICHLAND SALINE
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
INC005-011-013-019-021-025-027-031-035-037-043-051-055-057-059-
061-063-065-071-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-117-
119-121-123-125-129-133-135-139-143-145-147-153-159-163-165-167-
173-175-230040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN
CLARK CLAY CRAWFORD
WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..03/31/26
ATTN...WFO...CLE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 80
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC005-007-033-035-043-055-063-075-077-083-085-093-095-099-101-
103-117-123-133-139-143-147-151-153-155-169-173-175-312140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND ASHTABULA CRAWFORD
CUYAHOGA ERIE GEAUGA
HANCOCK HOLMES HURON
KNOX LAKE LORAIN
LUCAS MAHONING MARION
MEDINA MORROW OTTAWA
PORTAGE RICHLAND SANDUSKY
SENECA STARK SUMMIT
TRUMBULL WAYNE WOOD
WYANDOT
PAC039-049-312140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD ERIE
WW 0079 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 79
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..03/31/26
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 79
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-029-037-051-053-055-063-
065-067-069-073-075-077-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123-
312240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS
CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG
CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE
ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON
MADISON MONROE NIAGARA
ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO
ORLEANS OSWEGO OTSEGO
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE
WYOMING YATES
PAC015-083-105-115-117-123-312240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD MCKEAN POTTER
SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA WARREN
WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE FWA
TO 30 WNW TOL TO 10 NNW TOL.
..KERR..03/31/26
ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...IND...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC003-039-051-069-137-312040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HENRY PUTNAM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0311 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 79... FOR NEW YORK - NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Areas affected...New York - Northern Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79...
Valid 312135Z - 312330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79
continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will spread east
across ww079 this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the
primary concern.
DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm clusters, including a few
supercells, have developed well ahead of the primary low-amplitude
short-wave trough currently advancing across the Ohio Valley. Most
buoyant air mass is holding across the southwestern half of the
watch where MUCAPE is approaching 1000 J/kg; however, instability is
considerably weaker downstream across the Hudson Valley and this
will likely contribute to gradual weakening along the leading edge
as the convection begins to spread east of the watch over the next
few hours. Until then, large hail and damaging winds may accompany
the more robust updrafts, especially across the southern half of the
watch.
..Darrow.. 03/31/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...
LAT...LON 43147971 43187455 41877453 41867974 43147971
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0310 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80... FOR NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Areas affected...northern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80...
Valid 312022Z - 312215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80
continues.
SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief
tornado or two, is likely to increase as an evolving cluster of
storms overspreads much of the Greater Cleveland area by 5-6 PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...An evolving cluster of thunderstorms continues to
slowly intensify and organize. Though not yet well-defined, an
associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation appears to be
evolving, near/east of Toledo, with further intensification still
possible, as convection maintains east/southeasterly inflow of
unstable air characterized by mixed-layer CAPE up to 1000 J/kg for
at least another few hours. Embedded within 40+ kt westerly
deep-layer mean flow it appears that the convective system will
overspread much of the Greater Cleveland area by 21-22Z, accompanied
by potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or
two.
..Kerr.. 03/31/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41658283 41728168 42048053 41507995 41038131 40938306
41338312 41658283
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MD 0309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Areas affected...parts of northern and central Illinois...northern
Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 311944Z - 312215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm
development, including a couple supercells, appears possible late
this afternoon. It remains unclear if a new severe weather watch
will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...In the wake of early day convection, substantive
pre-cold frontal boundary-layer destabilization appears ongoing in a
corridor across northern/central Illinois through northern Indiana.
This is occurring beneath 40-50 kt westerly flow around 500 mb, near
the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, but in the wake of
one low-amplitude short wave migrating toward the lower Great Lakes
and generally well south of broad mid-level troughing overspreading
the Upper Midwest and adjacent upper Great Lakes region. Models
indicate at least subtly building mid-level heights across the
region into this evening.
However, low-level warm advection may be contributing to ongoing
renewed thunderstorm development southeast of Davenport IA toward
southern portions of the Greater Chicago area. And, at least some
convection allowing guidance suggests that a subtle linger mid-level
perturbation, now progressing west-northwest through north of the
Greater St. Louis area, may support additional storm development
during the next few hours.
While it remains unclear how widespread or organized convection may
become, the environment appears at least conditionally supportive of
supercells with potential to produce large hail, locally damaging
wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.
..Kerr/Hart.. 03/31/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40249098 41189006 41518512 40618530 39258855 38889022
40249098
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 0308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Areas affected...parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest
Texas into sothwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 311926Z - 312200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form after 21Z, with large hail and
locally damaging gusts possible through early evening. A brief
tornado cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front moving south across
western OK and the TX Panhandle, with a dryline extending south from
the surface low west of KCDS. Temperatures have warmed into the mid
80s F across the warm sector, with dewpoints holding in the 50s F.
Given cool midlevel temperatures, this is resulting in a deep layer
of steep lapse rates. MLCAPE will continue to rise perhaps into the
1500-2000 J/kg range. Satellite imagery shows CU already beginning
to form beneath the cirrus as of 1930Z.
Storms will likely form near the surface low and sporadically
southward along the dryline into parts of the South Plains after
21Z. These may be initially high based, but backing and
strengthening low-level winds will maintain or increase dewpoints
into the well-mixed boundary layer. The air mass should remain
sufficiently uncapped into southwest OK and northwest TX to
sustained any ongoing cells, although capping will become a factor
after sunset and with eastward extent into the cooler/more moist air
mass.
At least for a few hours, slow-moving cells may produce large hail,
and perhaps a tornado especially near the low or as storms
potentially propagate east along the sinking cold front. The warm
air mass and deep mixed layer suggest severe gust potential as well.
..Jewell/Hart.. 03/31/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33540111 35030087 35130052 35419990 35829935 36009891
35889829 35449828 34309894 33749942 33499988 33330050
33540111
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western
Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.
...20Z Update...
The primary changes to the forecast were to adjust severe/thunder
probabilities in the Upper Midwest given the progression of the cold
front and impacts of earlier convection. The remainder of the
forecast remains on track. See MD 308/309 for additional short-term
mesoscale details.
..Wendt.. 03/31/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/
...IL/IN/MI/OH...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
over northeast IL and northwest IN. These storms have a history of
hail, and are moving into an air mass that is warming/destabilizing.
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow
aloft will promote and increasing risk of organized storms capable
of hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. See WW #78
and MCD #305 for further details. This activity is expected to
persist into the evening, spreading across much of northern OH with
a continued severe risk.
...Southern NY/Northern PA into New England...
Latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary extending across
northern PA. The air mass north of the boundary is rather cool and
stable, but is expected to recover quickly this afternoon with
strong southwesterly low-level winds and daytime heating. Most CAM
solutions suggest thunderstorm activity over southeast Ontario will
intensify and affect parts of southern NY/northern PA with a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado or two is also
possible. Storms may spread into southern New England by evening
with a continued marginal severe threat.
...TX Panhandle/Western OK...
Full sunshine will result in strong heating and steep low-level
lapse rates along the dryline over the eastern TX Panhandle and
western OK this afternoon. A surface cold front will surge
southward into this region, with at least isolated thunderstorm
development expected near the triple-point by late afternoon. These
storms will track eastward into western OK through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for damaging
winds and hail with these storms.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central
Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated
strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern Plains and Central Plains...
A midlevel trough and accompanying 50-60-kt speed max will advance
eastward from the Great Basin into the southern/central Plains by
Wednesday evening. As related height falls overspread the High
Plains, a lee cyclone will deepen over southeastern CO, while a
southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains.
Ample diurnal heating and parcel residence time along the dryline
will promote scattered thunderstorm development in the 20-00Z time
frame -- aided by the strengthening large-scale ascent. Steep
midlevel lapse rates associated with an EML and lower 60s dewpoints
will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the warm sector. This, combined
with 40-50 kt of effective shear, will favor a mix of semi-discrete
supercells and organized clusters/line segments initially.
The risk of large to very large hail (some 2+ inch diameter) should
be greatest with these initial semi-discrete storms over the
southern/central High Plains. With time, the strengthening DCVA and
expanding cold pools will promote upscale growth into a
north/south-oriented band of storms with embedded supercell
structures -- given elongated hodographs and a substantial
line-orthogonal component to the deep-layer shear. Large hail will
remain possible, though scattered severe wind gusts and a couple
tornadoes will become the main concerns. Additionally, a 40-50+ kt
low-level jet will strengthen ahead of the upscale-growing
convection into the evening, resulting in expanding clockwise-curved
hodographs and additional concerns for a few tornadoes. Higher
tornado probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence in
where the risk will be maximized spatially. Storms will track
eastward across the I-35 corridor into the overnight hours and
continue to pose a damaging-wind risk and perhaps embedded
tornadoes. However, confidence in the overall severe-risk decreases
with eastward extent.
Farther north, additional thunderstorm development is expected near
a warm front extending across northeastern KS and vicinity during
the evening/overnight hours. While buoyancy will be weaker here,
40-50 kt of effective shear and increasing low-level shear in the
warm-advection regime will support organized clusters and
potentially a couple supercells. The primary concern with these
storms will be damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes.
...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Along/south of a stalled surface front, ample diurnal heating amid
upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints and limited inhibition should promote
widely scattered thunderstorms from the middle OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic during the day. While midlevel flow will be modest, a
subtle speed max glancing the area should contribute to around 25-30
kt of effective shear. This should promote a couple loosely
organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
isolated, marginally severe hail. A relatively higher corridor of
severe potential is possible over northern VA and vicinity, though
confidence in storm coverage and overall intensity was too low to
upgrade at this time.
..Weinman.. 03/31/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
...Midwest and Great Lakes region...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough and related belt of 50-60-kt
midlevel southwesterly flow will move from the central Plains
northeastward across the Midwest during the afternoon and evening on
Thursday. At the same time, an accompanying 50+ kt low-level jet
will overspread the Midwest ahead of a deepening surface low
tracking northeastward across IA into WI. Showers and thunderstorms
should be ongoing ahead of the surface low and along/south of an
eastward-extending warm front at the start of the period.
In the wake of the early-day convection, current indications are
that lower/middle 60s dewpoints will spread northward beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates -- yielding sufficient boundary-layer recovery
ahead of afternoon and evening thunderstorms near the surface low
and northward-moving warm front. Despite some uncertainty with the
early-day convection, around 50 kt of effective shear and enlarged
clockwise-turning hodographs will favor supercells and organized
clusters -- posing a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes. As the details become more clear regarding early-day
convection and related boundary-layer recovery, higher severe
probabilities may eventually be needed.
...Middle MS and Lower OH Valleys...
The latest guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible farther south within a zone of
broadly confluent and moist low-level flow. While relatively weaker
forcing for ascent limits confidence in severe potential with
southward extent, at least subtle midlevel heights falls amid
weak/moderate surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective
shear could support a few strong to severe storms capable of wind
damage and isolated hail during the afternoon.
..Weinman.. 03/31/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Afternoon Update...
The Elevated risk area was trimmed to account for expected higher RH
and precipitation chances in the northern TX Panhandle. Strong
southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) combined with
20-25 percent RH atop a dry fuelscape will maintain an Elevated fire
weather concern. However, widespread cloud cover and scattered light
rainfall could dampen fire weather conditions across parts of the
area. East-central and southeastern NM may experience locally
critical fire weather conditions where RH will decrease to 15-20
percent for a couple of hours within a region of 90th percentile
ERCs. See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 03/31/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow
(Wednesday), resulting in rapid surface low development across the
central Plains. Strong gradient flow will support widespread 20-25
mph sustained westerly surface winds west of a dryline. While
Critical highlights were considered, widespread cloudiness will
dampen boundary-layer mixing to a degree, with RH expected to stay
above Critical thresholds (i.e. 20-25 percent RH). Given the
presence of dry fuels and stronger winds, Elevated highlights have
been introduced.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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