Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the
southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches)
should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A band of mainly sub-severe thunderstorms ongoing this morning from
eastern OK into AR and southern MO is being aided by southwesterly
warm/moist advection at low levels. With time, this forcing should
weaken, and a decrease in convective intensity should continue
through late morning. Outflow from this convection is forecast to
extend from south-central/southeast OK into AR this afternoon, and
should serve as a focus for additional robust thunderstorms later
today. Daytime heating of a moist airmass already present across
much of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley
will aid in the development of moderate to strong instability by mid
afternoon along/south of the residual outflow and east of a surface
dryline extending from northeast to south-central TX. The greatest
instability should exist across southeast OK/northeast TX, where
steep mid-level lapse rates will likely still exist. A weak surface
low should also be in place across northeast TX by mid to late
afternoon.

Large-scale forcing aloft will remain fairly nebulous/weak across
the southern Plains this afternoon, as a prominent/closed
upper-level low remains centered over south-central Canada. Still,
multiple robust thunderstorms should develop by 19-22Z across
southeast OK along/near the residual outflow boundary as MLCIN
becomes minimal with robust diurnal heating, and as westerly
mid/upper-level flow modestly strengthens across the ArkLaTex
through early evening. This convection will become organized and
likely supercellular given the presence of around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. Large to very large hail (potentially up to
1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) should be the main threat with these
cells initially. Lower confidence in convective initiation exists
with southwestward extent along the dryline in TX, but at least a
conditional/low threat for severe hail remains apparent.

With time, some clustering may occur with an increased damaging wind
threat as convection spreads east-southeastward across the ArkLaTex
through the evening. One or more clusters may also redevelop along
the outflow from ongoing convection across the lower MS Valley this
afternoon, with a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds.
Low-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong (15-25 kt at 850
mb), but ample instability and the presence of locally backed
near-surface winds near the outflow boundary may support enough 0-1
km SRH for a few tornadoes, especially across southeast OK into the
ArkLaTex with any persistent supercells. An Enhanced Risk has been
introduced across this region given increased confidence in multiple
supercells with significant severe hail potential developing through
the afternoon/evening.

...Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the
Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today. Convection ahead of a cold
front has generally weakened this morning across the mid MS Valley.
Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue advancing
northward through the day ahead of the front, supporting weak
instability with filtered daytime heating. Loosely organized
clusters/cells that develop this afternoon may pose an isolated
threat for damaging winds as they move northeastward this
afternoon/evening.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/24/2026