Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER TX GULF COAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across the
western Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave traversing the Four Corners region as of
mid-morning is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains
through early Thursday morning. West/southwesterly mid-level flow
will steadily increase to around 50-60 knots as the wave approaches,
which will help advect a plume of modestly steep (7 to 7.5 C/km)
lapse rates out of northern Mexico towards the TX/LA Gulf Coast
region through tonight. At the surface, a weak surface low noted off
the south TX coast will gradually intensify and lift northward
towards the LA coast as broad-scale ascent ahead of the upper wave
increases later tonight. The combination of increasing ascent and
steepening lapse rates will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms tonight into early Thursday morning for much of the TX
Coastal Plain and central to southern LA. 

...Upper TX Gulf Coast to far southwest LA...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the upper TX Gulf Coast around 02-04 UTC tonight as warm advection
atop a residual frontal boundary increases. Forecast consensus is
that the surface low will remain off the coast through the forecast
period, which will limit the potential for surface-based convection.
However, strong moistening/ascent within the 925-850 mb layer will
likely support a narrow swath of deep convection along the TX coast
where MUCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg. Within this zone, buoyancy
profiles should be deep enough to realize the favorable kinematic
environment, which will be characterized by elongated hodographs and
effective shear of around 50 knots. Destructive storm
interactions/modes will likely modulate the overall longevity of any
particular cell, but the sufficient thermodynamic/kinematic
environment may support a few brief strong/severe storms capable of
small to severe hail.

..Moore.. 12/03/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Western/central Gulf Coast...
Elevated convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning along
portions of the northwest Gulf Coast, with a surface front likely
offshore of the Middle TX to southern LA coasts. Strong deep
convection should be relegated along and south of this front in the
adjacent coastal waters, which should result in greater southeast
displacement of the boundary away from the TX/southwest LA coast
during the day. The front could brush extreme southeast LA towards
midday/early afternoon, but the bulk of CAM guidance indicates that
severe gust/waterspout potential should be confined offshore. With
the primary upstream shortwave trough quickly moving from the
southern High Plains to the OH Valley and remaining low amplitude,
the surface reflection along the outflow-reinforced front will be
weak. As such, while severe probabilities may not be zero, they
appear too low to warrant a categorical highlight over land.

..Grams.. 12/03/2025

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 031700Z - 041200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook with benign fire weather
and/or fuel conditions across CONUS. A southward progressing cold
front moving through the Desert Southwest is initiating an offshore
wind event across southern CA this morning. Surface high pressure
settling into the Great Basin will maintain the offshore pressure
gradient, supporting east-northeast winds within favored terrain and
gaps through tonight. Despite elevated east-northeast winds of 15-25
mph and relative humidity dropping to around 15%, relatively cool
temperatures and marginal fuel dryness should mitigate significant
wildfire spread potential.

..Williams.. 12/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025/

...Synopsis...
On the backside of a midlevel trough moving across the Four Corners
region, high pressure over the Intermountain West will promote an
enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. While
locally dry/breezy conditions are expected (especially across
wind-prone mountains and valleys), marginal fuels should limit most
fire-weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...