Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to clear behind ongoing convection.
See previous discussion below for more information.

..Halbert-E.. 11/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0956 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026/

...Eastern NC...
An upper low over lower MI and an associated upper trough extending
southward through the OH/TN valleys will track eastward today,
providing large-scale forcing for ascent across much of the eastern
states.  A cluster of thunderstorms that began several hours ago in
northern SC is progressing northeastward across central NC.  Cloud
cover ahead of this activity is limiting daytime
heating/destabilization.  However, dewpoints near 70F and cooling
aloft will likely lead to a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of
around 1500 J/kg this afternoon.  CAM guidance is in agreement that
there will be a period of vigorous convection over eastern NC in the
19-23z time period.  Low-level winds are somewhat veered and not
particularly strong.  However, stronger winds aloft and the
approaching upper trough may result in sufficient organization for a
few bowing structures capable damaging wind gusts and some hail.  A
small SLGT risk has been added to address this focused risk area.

...Southeast AZ...
A strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon over extreme
southeast AZ, in a steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable
environment.  While hail will be possible in the strongest cores,
the threat appears too minimal for severe probabilities at this
time.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Saturday and
Saturday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east/northeast
across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday. A cold front will
have already moved offshore most of the Atlantic coast by Saturday
morning, except perhaps over far eastern portions of New England.
Isolated thunderstorm may occur within the warm conveyor ahead of
the upper cyclone, though severe storms are not expected. 

Additional, and more widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected across portions of southern/central TX within a low-level
warm advection regime ahead of a developing upper cyclone across
northern Mexico. Instability will remain too meager to support
severe convection.

A few lightning flashes also will be possible across parts of the
Pacific Northwest and strong southwesterly flow overspread the
region ahead of an approaching upper shortwave trough and cold front
late in the forecast period. Gusty winds may accompany convection as
it moves onshore given the strength of background synoptic flow, but
MUCAPE less than 200 J/kg will preclude severe convection.

..Leitman.. 11/06/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. Sunday and
Sunday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper-level low over northwest Mexico will spread eastward toward
the Rio Grande Valley in TX on Sunday. Modest low to midlevel
moisture will be in place across southern and central TX. Cool
temperatures aloft will support weak elevated instability and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across
southern/central TX as large-scale ascent overspreads the region for
much of the period. Limited heating, poor low-level lapse rates/cool
surface temperatures, and only minor elevated instability will
preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS.

..Leitman.. 11/06/2026