Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado will be possible across parts of the Southeast into the
southern Appalachians.

...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Ozarks into the
lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the trough, a warm
front will move northward from the central Gulf Coast states into
the southern Appalachians. Near the front, a cluster of strong
storms is expected to develop in the morning from northeast Alabama
into northwest Georgia. As the front moves eastward, a persistent
confluence band is expected to setup from central Georgia northward
into the southern Appalachians. Although abundant cloud cover will
temper surface heating, RAP forecast soundings suggest that MLCAPE
will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg near the confluence band during
the afternoon. This, combined with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots and
0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 m2/s2 could be enough for
isolated severe gusts and/or a brief tornado. The threat is expected
to decrease by early evening.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/04/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A broad zone of moderate southwest winds aloft will extend from TX
across the OH/TN Valleys and into the Northeast on Thursday with the
primary speed max aloft moving toward the Lower Great Lakes by
evening. The surface low will translate into western Quebec, with
weak surface winds over much of the eastern states. However,
dewpoints in the 60s F will extend as far north as southern New
England by Friday morning. Elevated thunderstorm chances will
increase overnight from NC into NJ as the upper trough nears and
surface pressures fall into early Friday morning. 

Elsewhere, a southern vorticity max will move across OK near the
tail end of the larger-scale eastern trough. Strong cooling aloft
will support elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms during
the day. Late-night elevated thunderstorms may also occur over Deep
South TX, as a cold front undercuts a moist air mass.

..Jewell.. 11/04/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible Friday over parts of eastern North
Carolina and Virginia.

...Discussion...
On Friday, the southern lobe of the eastern trough will move rapidly
east from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic
by afternoon, with strong cooling aloft and increasing midlevel
winds over 60 kt. A surface trough will deepen a bit during the day
over the eastern Carolinas and Virginia, where mid 60s F dewpoints
will be in place.

Early day rain and thunderstorms will be possible, which may
mitigate destabilization somewhat. However, at least some diurnal
surface heating may occur upstream/south, with gradual warming and
further destabilization during the day via advection. Increasing
large-scale lift may support renewed development along the effective
outflow/baroclinic zone. Given increasing mean wind fields aloft and
favorable deep-layer shear, at least isolated damaging gusts may
occur.

Given the ongoing early day rain and some model discrepancy as to
effective frontal position, will defer possible low severe
probabilities to later updates.

..Jewell.. 11/04/2026