Mesoscale Discussion 2445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Areas affected...Portions of central and eastern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042256Z - 050030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two and locally damaging wind gusts
remain possible for the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms northeast of Macon, GA has
shown periodic signs of embedded rotation over the last hour. As
this activity continues northward within a confluence zone during
the next hour or two, a moist boundary layer and small
clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per
JGX VWP and current storm motion), will support a localized risk of
a brief tornado or two and isolated damaging wind gusts. The overall
threat is expected to remain fairly localized and marginal.

..Weinman.. 11/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...

LAT...LON   32828354 33088363 33568348 33848327 33838291 33688271
            33278273 32828296 32728320 32828354 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two
will be possible across parts of the Southeast.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk area to clear
behind the ongoing convection. See MCD#2444 and the previous
discussion below for more details.

..Halbert-E.. 11/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026/

...Southeast...
Moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft is present over the southeast
states today, with water vapor imagery showing a pronounced
shortwave trough over MS/AL.  As this trough translates eastward
today, scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of AL/GA/SC and
east TN.  Two regimes appear to pose a risk of isolated
strong/severe storms later today.

The first area is along the primary cold front over eastern AL and
western GA.  Most recent CAM solutions suggest scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the front by mid-afternoon, with at
least pockets of heating occurring out ahead.  A few supercells are
possible.  Forecast soundings show weakening low-level winds and
some veering in areas of better heating.  This may tend to reduce
the tornado risk, but the strongest cells could be capable of
locally damaging wind gusts.

Another area of concern will stretch from central/northeast GA into
upstate SC later today.  Low-level winds will remain backed and
moderately strong in this area, leading to favorable shear profiles
for a tornado or two in the more persistent storms.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the
eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

...Eastern NC and vicinity...

An upper low and attendant trough oriented from the Great Lakes to
the TN Valley will become more progressive on Friday, shifting east
toward the Eastern Seaboard and New England. This will bring a belt
of enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow across the Carolinas,
northward through the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will
deepen over the Mid-Atlantic and move offshore through the period,
with a trailing front shifting east across eastern VA/NC/SC/GA and
northern FL. 

Ahead of the front, mid-60s F dewpoints will be in place as far
north as southeast VA. This will aid in weak destabilization across
the eastern Carolinas toward southeast VA within the pre-frontal
warm advection regime. However, cloudiness and possible ongoing
showers/thunderstorms across portions of the region will inhibit
stronger destabilization despite cooling aloft and favorable
boundary layer moisture. Nevertheless, strengthening vertical shear
is anticipated by midday, and where pockets of stronger
heating/destabilization can occur, isolated strong to severe storms
will be possible. These stronger storms could produce sporadic wind
damage, and a Level 1/Marginal risk has been included with the Day 3
update.

..Leitman.. 11/04/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The forecast remains on track for Day 2/Thursday with reduced fire
weather concerns across the CONUS.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026/

...Synopsis...
Limited fire weather concerns for the CONUS will carry over from
D1/Wednesday into D2/Thursday. Precipitation associated with a
surface cyclone and attendant cold front will push into the
Northeastern U.S. This will aid in fuel recovery and reduce the fire
weather threat across this region after consecutive days of above
normal temperatures and low RH were observed.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...