Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains
through the period. Although low-level moisture will remain quite
limited, cool temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent preceding
the upper trough should encourage isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across these areas today and tonight. Instability is
expected to remain too limited to support an organized severe
threat, although occasional gusty winds may occur.

Isolated thunderstorms appear possible mainly tonight into early
Tuesday morning across parts of the mid MS Valley and vicinity,
aided mainly by increasing low-level warm/moist advection and the
development of weak MUCAPE. Farther east, convection capable of
producing occasional lightning may also occur across parts of
coastal NC and south FL. Weak shear and/or instability across all
these regions should preclude a meaningful severe threat today.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/02/2026