Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected to develop today from parts of the lower Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Large hail and severe wind gusts are
also expected in the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and
hail may also occur in parts of the southern Plains.

...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move eastward into the lower Great Lakes today. A cold front will
advance southeastward into the lower Great Lakes, with surface
dewpoints ahead of the front in the mid to upper 60s F. An axis of
moderate instability appears likely to develop well ahead of the
front by early to mid afternoon. As this happens, convective
initiation will take place near this axis of instability from
northern Indiana eastward into northern Pennsylvania and
northeastward into southern New York. Convective coverage will
gradually expand, as a broken line segment moves southeastward into
the Ohio Valley and toward the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New
England.

RAP forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis over
northern Ohio and southwestern Pennsylvania have 0-6 km shear near
45 knots, which could support supercell development. Supercells will
be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and an isolated tornado
threat. During the late afternoon, a transition to more linear
development is expected, which should result in an increased
wind-damage threat.

Further east from central Pennsylvania into southern New England,
forecast soundings at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot
range with 0-3 km lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This
environment will support severe storm development. Although an
isolated supercell will be possible, the most likely mode will be
linear, favoring wind-damage as the primary threat. The potential
for severe gusts will be maximized from south-central Pennsylvania
northeastward into far southern New York. The line segment is
expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts by early
evening.

...Northern High Plains...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow over the northern High Plains will
become more southwesterly during the day, as an upper-level trough
moves through the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a low will
deepen over the northern High Plains, with a trough located
northeastward into far northeast Montana. As surface temperatures
warm today, moderate instability will develop near the surface
trough. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence, will
result in scattered convective initiation. Multiple storms are
forecast to move northeastward across the northern High Plains
during the late afternoon and early evening.

RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in far northeast
Montana at 00Z have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near
35 knots. Surface-temperature dewpoint spreads are large with low to
mid-level lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This should be
favorable for high-based supercells capable of large hail and severe
wind gusts. The severe threat will likely persist into the early to
mid evening.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level low will move across west Texas today. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, where
dewpoints will be from the upper 60s into the mid 70s F. This will
result in the development of moderate instability by afternoon. To
the east of the mid-level low, low-level convergence is forecast to
become maximized over parts of west-central Texas and southern
Oklahoma. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop from late afternoon into the evening. The instability
combined with steep low-level lapse rates (exceeding 7 C/km) will
support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/06/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, severe
wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across the
northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally
damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A
brief tornado or two appears possible in eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas.

...Synopsis...

A vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks
within the base of broader-scale troughing from the lee of the
Canadian Rockies into northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning
are forecast to accelerate northeast through the northern High
Plains, ahead of an upstream jet segment moving onto the Pacific
Northwest coast. Elsewhere, an amplified short-wave trough will
progress through the Northeast, while a more loosely organized
trough progresses through the central and southern Plains through
the Ozarks and mid MS Valley.

At the surface, an area of low pressure and associated pre-frontal
trough over the western Dakotas will be overtaken by a cold front
moving out of the northern Rockies. That frontal system will
continue east into the ND-MN Red River Valley, and southeast into
the central High Plains by Monday morning. Elsewhere, more of a
backdoor cold front will progress south/southwest through the
Northeast into Mid-Atlantic.


...Montana and Wyoming into the Dakotas...

A hot, deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop ahead of
the pre-frontal trough over the western Dakotas Sunday afternoon,
with the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates contributing to
an axis of moderate to strong instability. Moderate instability is
expected to extend into eastern MT and northeast WY, owing to
low-level moisture wrapping around the surface trough. Initial storm
development is expected by mid afternoon along the western fringe of
the instability axis across southeast MT into north-central and
northeast WY as lift is enhanced by terrain, the cold front, and
forcing tied to the vorticity maximum and attending jet streaks. A
separate thunderstorm regime is expected to evolve by late afternoon
into evening over the western Dakotas as the cold front merges with
the pre-frontal trough.

The MT/WY storms are expected to mature in a strongly sheared
environment, which will favor supercells capable of large hail.
Initially marginal vertical shear with the western Dakotas storm
regime is expected strengthen through the evening, supporting the
potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts as the primary hazards. Some tornado threat may
materialize by mid/late evening across portions of north-central ND
where strengthening low-level shear will coincide with a more moist,
lower-LCL boundary layer. The magnitude of the threat will be
contingent on storm mode at that time, given the tendency for more
linear forcing along the cold front. 


... Central Virginia into the Chesapeake Bay Area...

Daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to
a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon, ahead of a pre-frontal
wind shift moving into the area from the north. Convergence along
that boundary along with the glancing influence of the mid-level
trough passing to the immediate north are expected to support
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
across the discussion area. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures
are expected to limit the potential for large hail; however, the
presence of steep, low-level lapse rates and 30-35 kt of
northwesterly deep-layer shear appear supportive of locally damaging
wind gusts through the afternoon into early evening.


...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas...

Forcing for ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum moving through
the base of broader-scale troughing is expected to contribute to an
increase in thunderstorm coverage early in the day. That scenario
would tend to limit air mass destabilization through the afternoon,
leaving severe-storm potential in question. However, there is a
signal in some guidance that a low-level jet will strengthen during
the afternoon into evening, leading to an increase in low-level
shear. A concurrent risk for a brief tornado or two may materialize,
especially with any storms on the southern or western fringe of the
larger convective footprint. That notion is generally supported by
the 00z HREF mean 0-1 km SRH, which shows values increasing to
100-150 m2/s2 by Sunday evening.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...

Mid-level heights are forecast to rise over the northern and central
High Plains Monday in the wake of a short-wave trough lifting into
central Canada, and ahead of an amplifying, upstream system tracking
from the northern Great Basin into northern Rockies. At the surface,
a frontal system extending from the eastern Dakotas to low pressure
over western KS Monday morning is forecast to weaken through the day
in response to falling pressures across the northern Rockies.


...Central High Plains...

Deepening low pressure over MT and WY in conjunction with a residual
surface low over southwest KS or northwest OK will promote the
westward advection of an increasingly moist air mass into the higher
terrain of eastern CO and southeast WY. That process will occur
beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates with a moderately
unstable environment developing by afternoon. In the absence of
appreciable forcing for ascent, daytime heating and lift along
favored terrain may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm
development by mid to late afternoon. Southwesterly mid-level winds
are forecast to strengthen through the day, yielding sufficient
vertical shear for supercells capable of large hail. There is some
model signal that an isolated hail and wind threat may spread into
western parts of NE and KS Monday evening.


...Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South...

A number of models suggest that thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday
morning across Ozarks or Ozark Plateau region within a zone of warm
advection occurring with the terminus of a nocturnal low-level jet
(LLJ). The LLJ is forecast to weaken through the morning, with
forcing for ascent becoming much more nebulous into afternoon. The
air mass along and south of an expected outflow boundary is forecast
to be quite moist and moderate to strongly unstable, and a few
severe storms appear possible during the afternoon. Vertical shear
will remain weak, which will limit the magnitude of any severe
weather threat. The primary uncertainty is exactly where the outflow
boundary will reside given considerable model variability in
precipitation distribution throughout the day. As such, no
severe-weather probabilities will be included in this forecast.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026