Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

... Synopsis ...

A shortwave trough will move northeast along the eastern periphery
of a western US longwave trough. This shortwave will help maintain a
surface cyclone in southern Canada, while a secondary surface low
may develop across southern Minnesota late in the period. A
secondary shortwave will approach the southern Plains late in the
forecast period.

As the shortwave trough lifts northeast, a cold front will
accelerate east across the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the
surface front southerly winds will support mid 50F dewpoints as far
north as northern Minnesota and pockets of 60F dewpoints perhaps as
far north as southern-to-central Minnesota.

... Central and Northern Plains ...

Diurnal heating of the moist airmass ahead of the advancing surface
front will yield an increasingly unstable atmosphere during the
afternoon with the 20260422/00Z HREF showing ensemble mean SBCAPE
values approaching 2000 J/kg as far north as the greater Omaha, NE,
vicinity by 20Z. Interrogation of forecast soundings ahead of the
frontal boundary shows a strong cap stretching from Oklahoma
northward into Nebraska and Iowa. This cap does lift during the day
in response to increasing large-scale ascent from the approaching
trough, but thunderstorm initiation will likely require convergence
along the surface front.

This should occur by mid-afternoon anywhere from northeast Kansas
into southern Minnesota. Initially, deep-layer shear is not
particularly strong across the warm sector, but would still support
a combination of multi-cells and supercells. Given the degree of
instability and steep midlevel lapse rates, large-to-very-large hail
would be possible with any of these initial storms. A tornado or two
would also be possible given some low-level curvature in the
forecast hodographs associated with at least a modest low-level jet.


As the cold front continues to move east into the moist and unstable
airmass, additional thunderstorms should develop along the front,
eventually growing upscale into one or more linear systems and a
transition to a damaging wind threat. Vertical shear should improve
during the late afternoon and evening as the mid-to-upper-level
winds respond to the approach trough, yielding a continued tornado
threat with any persistent discrete cell.

... Oklahoma and Northwest Texas ...

A very unstable airmass will develop across the region to the east
of a dryline across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Forecast
soundings show varying degrees of a cap across Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas. With the strongest large-scale ascent remaining
largely to the north of the area, forcing for ascent will likely
require strong dryline circulations. Given afternoon temperatures in
the 90Fs to the west of the dryline, there is at least some
potential for dryline circulations to break the cap and initiate at
least a couple of storms. Vertical shear profiles will support
supercells capable of very large hail. A highly conditional tornado
threat could develop with any discrete storm that is able to move
off the dryline and into the increasingly moist and unstable
environment to the east.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

... Synopsis ...

A persistent longwave trough will remain situated across the
northern US on Friday, maintaining a broad regime of cyclonic
midlevel flow over the western two-thirds of the country. Within
this broad flow, neutral to modest midlevel height rises are likely
across the Southern Plains. This evolution suggests a lack of robust
large-scale forcing for ascent, with subtle subsidence potentially
acting as a limiting factor for widespread convective coverage. 

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...


At the start of the forecast period, convective activity may be
ongoing across portions of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas,
southern Missouri, or northern Arkansas along a consolidated outflow
boundary/cold front. These storms should slowly weaken during the
morning with the loss of large-scale ascent and a weakening
low-level jet. The outflow boundary/cold front should slowly sag
south through the morning before stalling somewhere in the vicinity
of the I40 corridor. This feature will serve as the primary focus
for subsequent development later in the afternoon, with residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries being a secondary source
of initiation.

South of the frontal boundary, a highly unstable airmass will remain
in place across the warm sector. Strong diabatic heating of a moist
boundary layer will yield pockets of moderate-to-strong instability,
with MUCAPE values potentially in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. While
deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively modest (30-35
knots), the degree of instability will be sufficient to support
robust updrafts. 

Given the modest shear and lack of stronger synoptic support, storm
modes will likely be multicell clusters or transient supercells. Any
persistent cell will be capable of producing large hail and
localized damaging wind gusts

... Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection that develops across Oklahoma and Arkansas during the
afternoon is expected to persist into the evening as it moves slowly
east-southeast toward Mississippi and Tennessee. Although
instability is not as great with eastward extent, it should remain
sufficient enough to support some potential for sporadic wind and
hail through the overnight hours.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An active severe weather pattern will continue through early next
week.

On Saturday/Day-4, model guidance continues to show thunderstorms
developing during the late afternoon and early evening hours along a
lifting warm front across the Southern Plains. Along and south of
this boundary, the environment will be strongly unstable with MUCAPE
values between 2000-3000 J/kg as a low-level jet continually advects
mid 60Fs dewpoints north across the boundary. Effective layer shear
around 40 knots would support an initial supercell threat that
should grow upscale into bowing segments overnight. A 30% area is
introduced across southwest Kansas into east-central Oklahoma for
the expectation is for strong bowing segments to move east-southeast
overnight into a strong low-level jet. These storms will be capable
of producing strong winds, large hail, and QLCS tornadoes.

On Sunday/Day-5, ongoing convection across southeast Kansas and
western Missouri at the start of the period may pose a continued
risk of hail and damaging winds, and this convection may persist
into mid morning. To the west, continued moist low-level advection
will allow for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 60Fs to low
70Fs across central Oklahoma to the east of a sharp dryline. At the
same time, a low-amplitude shortwave should approach the Southern
Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours, with a
mid-990-millibar surface low developing across northwest Oklahoma
along the dryline. The result of this setup will be a volatile
atmosphere where MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg exist within a
strongly shear environment (vertical shear nearly 50 knots). Should
thunderstorms initiate, a high-end severe weather threat could
materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours across
central and eastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. However, global
models continue to struggle to develop convection within this
environment despite model guidance having modest upward vertical
velocities overspreading the dryline. Pattern recognition suggests
the need for a 30% severe area for this potential despite the lack
of a QPF signal in the global models, and have opted to add one with
this forecast. The location of this 30% will likely need to be
refined in subsequent outlooks.

The severe threat should continue into Monday/Day-6 across portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong storms should develop along
and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg
and 40-knots of deep-layer shear will support supercell
thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. The location, number,
and intensity of these supercells will likely be modulated by the
events of Sunday. Specifically, if widespread convection does not
occur Sunday across the Southern Plains, a more robust reservoir of
CAPE/lapse-rates will be available to thunderstorms across the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Monday and a higher-end severe potential may
develop. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

By Tuesday/Day-7 into Wednesday/Day-8, uncertainty in the severe
potential across the southeast increases too much to have confidence
in identifying specific locations. Although, as the mesoscale
details become cleared in the preceding days, areas may need to be
added in subsequent forecasts.