Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

...20z Updates...
Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm coverage based on
trends in radar. See previous discussion below for more information.

..Halbert-E.. 11/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026/

...Mid Atlantic to southern New England...
Broad southwesterly flow aloft is present today over the eastern
states, with a moist surface air mass in place along and east of the
Appalachians.  Forcing will be weak through the day, but an
approaching upper trough over the central US will result in
increasing thunderstorm potential after dark - especially from the
Mid Atlantic region northward into southern New England.  Strong
winds aloft will result in fast-moving storms, but nocturnal cooling
will limit surface-based convective threat and the overall risk of
damaging winds.  Nevertheless, an occasional storm could pose some
concern for gusty winds.

...KS/OK...
A mid-level shortwave trough and associated pocket of cold mid-level
air will result in steep lapse rates and scattered afternoon
thunderstorms over parts of southern KS and northern OK.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Saturday, in
the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. This will result in any
appreciable boundary layer moisture being relegated to deep South TX
and parts of the FL Peninsula. Thunderstorm chances will largely be
negligible across most of the Lower 48 given scant boundary layer
moisture and little instability. The exception may be across parts
of southwest/central TX. Weak elevated instability due to cool
temperatures aloft, and a warm advection regime within the 850-700
mb layer support isolated lightning flashes from elevated
convection. Severe storms are not anticipated with this activity.

..Leitman.. 11/05/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes are necessary to the previous forecast. While the
previously mentioned northeasterly flow remains on track over parts
of southern CA, recent accumulating rainfall will keep fuels below
critical thresholds. However, this event (starting on Day 2/Friday)
is likely to cure fuels in southern coastal CA, potentially
presenting a higher fire risk should another offshore wind event
emerge next week or beyond.

..Stearns.. 11/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge will strengthen over much of the northwestern
U.S. D2/Friday as broad surface high pressure settles into the
Intermountain West. Deep layer northeasterly flow will develop as an
upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest, supporting dry,
offshore wind trajectories across portions of southern CA. The
strongest east to northeast winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts
will favor terrain gaps while RH falls to around 15% during the day.
However, recent rainfall and a marginal fuelscape will help reduce
the overall impacts of the dry offshore flow, precluding
introduction of broader fire weather highlights across southern CA.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...