Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates a progressive,
low-amplitude flow pattern over the contiguous U.S.  A cold front
will push eastward across the Great Lakes with the western portion
of the front stalling over the central Great Plains and slowly
advancing northward late tonight.  

A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the front over
parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest regions, but weak CAPE and
limited moisture should preclude any severe threat.  Farther
southwest, a storm or two may develop near the front in the vicinity
of southern KS.  The weakly forced setup will likely limit storm
coverage.  Although a strong storm cannot be ruled out, will forego
introducing hail probabilities this outlook update.  Later tonight,
weak warm advection will favor elevated buoyancy and the development
of scattered thunderstorms over northeast KS into the adjacent parts
of southeast NE/western IA and northwest MO.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 10/29/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of southern/central Arizona on Friday. Damaging wind gusts and large
hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

...Synopsis...
A broad trough off the Northwest coast will strengthen on Friday.
Within the Plains, upper-level ridging will intensify from the
northern Rockies into parts of the central Plains. Within the
Southwest and southern Plains, a developing, nebulous shortwave
trough will lift northeastward out of northern Mexico and lead to
widespread showers/thunderstorms across parts of these regions. A
lingering surface boundary near the lower Missouri Valley will make
slow northward progress. 

...Arizona...
Surface troughing within the lower Colorado Valley vicinity will
draw low-level moisture into southern/central Arizona. Cloud cover
will increase through the day as an intensifying shortwave trough
within the subtropical jet stream approaches the Baja Peninsula.
Even so, at least areas of filtered surface heating are possible.
This, along with subtle mid-level ascent and cooler temperatures
aloft, will support scattered convection during the afternoon along
the Mogollon Rim and within the surface trough. MLCAPE of 500-1250
J/kg will be possible. Effective shear will not be overly strong
(20-30 kt), but will be slowly increasing through the day. The
modest buoyancy and impacts from convective outflow will likely
result in storm severity being short-lived. Marginally severe hail
and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest activity.

...Lower Missouri Valley...
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Friday morning
near and north of the surface boundary. 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE could
support a stronger storm or two. Small hail appears possible.
However, poor lapse rates, weak effective shear, and slight warming
at mid levels will keep overall severe potential low.

..Wendt.. 10/29/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 291700Z - 301200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The forecast remains on track with no changes necessary from the
previous outlook issuance for today.

..Stearns.. 10/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026/

...Synopsis...
Across the Interior West, westerly flow aloft will gradually
transition to southwesterly as a mid-level trough amplifies over the
Pacific Northwest. Resultant increasing cloud cover across much of
the western CONUS, lighter prevailing winds, and a marginal fuel
environment will limit fire weather concerns. Upper ridging will
continue across the Southeast with surface high pressure remaining
fixed over the eastern CONUS, allowing warm and dry conditions to
prevail. A lack of strong wind where fuels are available to burn,
mainly across the lower MS River Valley and southern Appalachians,
will preclude any significant fire weather threat today.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...