Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible
Thursday afternoon into night across the northern and central Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...

A series of vorticity maxima is forecast to pivot through the
northern Plains and upper Midwest, within the northeast periphery of
an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, an
area of low pressure initially over the western Dakotas will develop
east-southeast to eastern SD or southern MN by Thursday night.
Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance through the northern
into central Plains.


...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley...

Latest model guidance indicates the potential for multiple areas of
showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing at 12Z Thursday, aided by
forcing for ascent attendant to a lead disturbance aloft and
low-level warm advection along a waning, nocturnal low-level jet.
The extent and duration of the early-day convection will have
implications for the degree of air mass destabilization by afternoon
ahead of the cold front. Where stronger heating can occur, the
presence of dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield a
moderately to potentially strongly unstable air mass. However,
vertical shear will tend to be limited by generally less than 30 kt
of mid-level flow across the warm sector.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon along the cold front as well as any residual
outflow boundaries from the morning convection. The models suggest
the potential for upscale growth into one or multiple
cold-pool-driven MCSs with the primary hazard being damaging wind
gusts. Only 5% total severe probabilities will be included in this
forecast due to uncertainty in the preferred corridor(s) of greater
air mass destabilization and resultant severe weather threat. An
upgrade to a Level 2/Slight Risk may become necessary once those
details become more clear.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Friday...

The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough
over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low
tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those
features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging
with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the
surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther
southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of
a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear
possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the
cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger
forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability,
the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain. 


Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over
the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level
upslope regime.


...Day 5/Saturday...

The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid
MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the
trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley,
where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few
severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however,
generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for
a more organized event. 

...Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday...

Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in
relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough
and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the
international border from the northern Rockies to the northern
Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat
could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday
and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as
strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By
Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains
with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal
upslope regime.