Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the
Carolinas and Georgia.

...Carolinas/Georgia...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Eastern
Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
through the Carolinas, and should be positioned from central Georgia
into central South Carolina by Monday afternoon. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s F will contribute
to weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop near the front and move east-southeastward toward the
Atlantic coast during the mid to late afternoon. 0-6 km shear in the
30 to 35 knot range, along with steep low-level lapse rates may be
enough for a marginal wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 03/21/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western
Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves
eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across
most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in
most areas.

On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as
low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible
across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the
southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest
potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front.
At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is
substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin
to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the
greatest severe threat will be.

...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the
Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms
will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move
southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would
again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is
that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday,
uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast
period.