Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across
portions of the Florida peninsula, but the potential for severe
thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions will be prevalent across much of the CONUS
as a broad region of high pressure builds over the eastern Plains/OH
Valley in the wake of a strong frontal passage during the D2/Friday
to early D3/Saturday period. This front is forecast to reside across
the northern Gulf and into the northern FL peninsula by 12 UTC
Saturday, and will continue to migrate south through the day before
stalling over south FL during the evening/overnight hours. Although
forcing for ascent should steadily diminish given the frontolytic
nature of the boundary, weak low-level ascent within a moist and
weakly capped environment may support a few thunderstorms.
Displacement from stronger flow aloft will limit storm organization
and longevity, which should preclude organized convection. Based on
extended-range RRFS and MPAS solutions, as well as ensemble QPF
signals, the best potential for thunderstorms should emerge across
the Lake Okeechobee vicinity and areas westward to the FL Gulf
coast.

..Moore.. 03/26/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential will remain low through the end of the
upcoming weekend, and while a gradual increase in severe weather
potential is anticipated through next week, predictability remains
limited. Extended-range deterministic and ensemble solutions
continue to generally show good agreement in the eastward
translation of the upper ridge currently over the Southwest towards
the East Coast through the middle of next week. This will not only
result in increasing southwesterly flow over the central CONUS, but
will also promote lee troughing/cyclogenesis with an attendant
uptick in moisture return into the Plains/MS Valley. 

Recent GEFS forecasts show high confidence in a return of slightly
above seasonal moisture into the eastern Plains and Midwest by the
D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday time frame. Severe thunderstorm potential is
expected to generally increase during this period as weak impulses
embedded within the broader southwest flow regime overspread the
returning moisture. Based on more bullish deterministic solutions,
some severe risk may materialize across the Midwest late D5/Monday
into D6/Tuesday within a warm frontal zone, and potentially across
the central Plains on D7/Wednesday or D8/Thursday as a cold front
pushes southeast in tandem with the intensification of a surface
low.

While these signals are noted, run-to-run variability among
deterministic guidance remains fairly high regarding the
evolution/placement of surface features and convective environments
beyond D6/Tuesday. Latest GEFS and ECENS guidance, as well as
long-range ensemble clustering and extended calibrated guidance,
show a substantial increase in variance by mid-week, which implies
limited confidence in any particular solution. While not surprising
at this range and with an upper-level regime shift yet to occur, it
remains unclear when predictability of any mid-week severe threat
will substantially improve.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging centered over northern Mexico and West Texas
will remain in place through D2/Friday as a mid-level shortwave
trough advances southeastward across the Great Lakes region and into
the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore of
the Gulf Coast while strong high pressure shifts southeastward from
the northern Great Plains into the Midwest.

...Central Great Plains...
Broad post-frontal flow from the north-northeast amid a dry air mass
will encompass portions of the central/southern Great Plains on
Friday. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph coupled with reduced RH
values of 20-25% (locally as low as 15%) and receptive fuels are
expected to support a broad area of elevated to locally critical
fire weather concerns from eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa
southward to western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Strong 850 mb
flow of 30-40+ kts will also support the potential for occasional
gusts to 30-35 mph, especially across the southern portions of the
Elevated highlights. 

...Eastern Arizona into western New Mexico...
A backdoor cold front is forecast to move south-southwestward
through portions of the Southwest on Friday. Latest guidance
indicates southeasterly winds will strengthen to 15-25 mph across
portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico following the
frontal passage, especially in the vicinity of the White Mountains
and Gila Region. While RH values are forecast to increase behind the
front, there may be a brief period of time where the increased winds
overlap lingering low RH of 15-20%, supporting the potential for
localized elevated fire weather concerns. Uncertainty regarding the
timing of the frontal passage as well as the duration of overlap of
winds/RH precludes the addition of Elevated highlights at this time,
but trends will continue to be monitored.

..Chalmers.. 03/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...