Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Ongoing thunderstorms across the southern Appalachians will continue
to pose a threat for lightning into the Carolinas this evening.

... 01Z Update ...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a subtle mid-level trough
will continue to move across the southern Appalachians into the
Carolinas this evening. Recent mesoanalysis suggests deep-layer
shear is around 30 knots and most-unstable CAPE up to 500 J/kg.
However, ongoing convection has struggled to maintain robust
updrafts within this environment. Given weak forcing for ascent,
increasing convective inhibition, and decreasing instability this
evening, any severe wind or hail potential should remain less than
5% coverage. 

Thunderstorms should dissipate later this evening into the early
morning.

..Marsh.. 03/22/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

A shortwave trough will traverse the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic
regions on Day 3/Monday as an upper level ridge begins to build back
across the western US. Although less intense than the recent
heatwave, this will once again increase surface temperatures, likely
breaking daily records over much of the southern two-thirds of the
western US once again. On Day 5/Wednesday, a potent upper-level
trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and significantly will
dampen the amplitude of the ridge as it moves across the northern
CONUS border on Day 6/Thursday. The jet max will exit the Eastern
Seaboard on Day 7/Friday. While significant uncertainty exists among
forecast guidance beyond this time frame, another western US
transitory ridge will be possible next weekend.

On Day 3/Monday, over the lee side of the central Appalachians,
expect a cold front to sweep across the region. This will deliver
sustained northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph, gusting over 30 mph in
exposed and downslope areas, combined with RHs of 20-30% resulting
in a 40% likelihood of critical conditions. The latest guidance
shows that weaker flow aloft over Wyoming will preclude any
probability of critical conditions there.

On Day 5/Wednesday, as the ridge over the western US breaks down,
warm surface temperatures aided by lee troughing will support a
robust boundary layer, mixing into strong westerly winds associated
with the passing upper-level jet. The latest forecast guidance
indicates sustained west winds of 20-30 mph will combine with RHs of
10-20% at the surface for several hours during the afternoon. Thus,
a 70% area exists for much of east-central Wyoming while 40%
probabilities cover portions of northern Colorado and much of the
Nebraska Panhandle where surface winds are not expected to be as
strong.

On Day 6/Thursday, an area of 40% probability was introduced as a
cold front supported by the aforementioned passing upper-level
trough is expected to surge south across the central and southern
Plains. While uncertainty in the timing and evolution of this cold
front will likely necessitate adjustments to the risk area over the
coming days, the southern High Plains currently stands the best
chance to experience critical fire weather conditions with this
frontal passage.

..Stearns.. 03/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...