URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 469
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
425 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northwest Nebraska
  Western and Central South Dakota
  Northeast Wyoming

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until
  1100 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A mix of supercells and clusters should pose a threat for
both large hail and severe/damaging winds this afternoon and evening
as they develop slowly eastward. Isolated very large hail up to
2-2.5 inches in diameter may occur with any sustained supercells,
and occasional significant gusts up to 75 mph appear possible if a
cluster can form later this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of
Gillette WY to 55 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26025.

...Gleason

STATUS FOR WATCH 0469 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper
Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly
damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from the
southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley,
parts of the Great Basin, and southeast Arizona.

...20Z Update...
No major changes were made to the outlook with this update. In the
wake of earlier convective overturning in north-central/northeast
SD, cloud breaks are supporting diurnal heating and gradual
boundary-layer recovery. This, combined with a strengthening
low-level jet into this evening, will promote some northward
movement of an east/west-oriented surface boundary currently draped
across southern/central SD. This boundary may be the focus for a few
supercells later this evening, though it is unclear if this activity
will develop on the immediate cool side of the boundary or in the
moist/unstable warm sector. If these storms can develop into the
warm sector, they could pose a locally greater risk of large hail,
damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes -- given ample low-level
hodograph curvature. However, given a large component of
boundary-parallel deep-layer shear and strengthening warm advection,
storms may tend to grow upscale and pose mainly a severe-wind risk. 

Additionally, there is a scenario where a severe MCS could emerge
from this activity or storms forming to the west as they track
along/south of the boundary in the strongly unstable warm sector.
However, confidence in this scenario is too low for higher
severe-probabilities at this time.

..Weinman.. 07/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026/

...Dakotas/MN...
A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and
Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge
over the Dakotas.  A surface boundary will lift slightly northward
and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening,
with a very unstable air mass expected to the south.  Thunderstorms
are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late
afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough.  These storms
will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability
in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near
the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts.  If sufficient organization can occur with
these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward
through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN
with a risk of damaging winds.

Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new
development this afternoon along the boundary.  These storms could
also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail.

...VA/NC...
Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over
northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into
NC.  Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms
producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

...TX/LA...
Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in
vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region.  Locally
damaging wind gusts are the main risk.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact portions of the
central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio
Valleys, and over parts of the Mid Atlantic Thursday through
Thursday night.

...Central Plains...
Modest 20-30 kt westerlies will exist across the High Plains, with
the stronger wind speeds from MT into ND. Temperatures aloft will
remain seasonably cool with -8 to -10 C from CO into MT. Storms are
forecast to develop over eastern WY and CO after 21Z near the Front
Range where heating will be strong, and spread across western NE,
KS, and the OK Panhandle late. An MCS may develop into KS, where
stronger instability will persist. Large hail appears probable with
the initial activity, before transitioning to mainly damaging wind.
The steep lapse rates aloft will support robust storms propagating
into the backed boundary layer easterlies.

...MO eastward across IL, IN, KY...
Persistent west to southwest winds near 850 mb will maintain a
theta-e plume as a weak upper trough moves across the region. Early
day storms are possible moving out of KS, and some reorganization is
possible as the air mass destabilizes with locally damaging gusts.
Afternoon activity is also expected from lower MI into northern IL,
and this may increase in coverage overnight across IL and IN,
perhaps into KY. Shear will be marginal in all areas, with a moist
and unstable air mass. Predictability is low for this setup, but a
large area of at least isolated severe gust potential is evident.

...Parts of the Mid Atlantic...
A low-amplitude feature aloft with 35 kt midlevel winds is forecast
to move across the Appalachians and into VA/NC area during the day.
Meanwhile, a surface trough will deepen during the afternoon with a
moist air mass contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. The increased
winds and deep shear may aid storm longevity somewhat, with cells or
clusters developing and moving quickly southeast across the area.
Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, but storms
coinciding with peak heating may yield a few severe wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/07/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...Afternoon Update...
The Elevated risk area has been expanded along and east of the
Sierra Nevada where high resolution forecast guidance depicts 70-90%
probabilities of wind/RH reaching criteria. Enhanced westerly flow
aloft should encourage downslope flow off the higher terrain,
promoting gusts up to 30 mph amid 8-15% RH where ERCs are
approaching the 80-90th percentile. In addition, Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm highlights were expanded more into the Snake River
Plain where a dry boundary layer, ample instability, and dry fuels
have increased concerns for potential lightning ignitions. The rest
of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for
more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move into southwest Canada helping to
flattening the ridge over the West and increasing west/southwest
flow aloft across the northwestern US. The upper high will extend
and shift westward over the southwestern US and off the southern
California coast. A weak, Pacific cold front will move through the
Northwest into the northern Great Basin. 

Westerly sustained winds of 12-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph amid
minimum RH of 12-25% are likely across portions central/eastern
Washington as the onshore pressure gradient remains enhanced. As the
 Pacific cold front moves southeast, winds will increase along and
ahead of it across much of the Great Basin into the Four Corners.
West-southwest sustained winds of 12-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph
amid minimum RH of 5-15% are expected across this area. These dry
and breezy conditions will be following multiple days of lightning
across portions of the Great Basin, with holdovers likely to emerge.

Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from
northeast Nevada/southern Idaho extending east-southeast to the West
Slope. This will be on the southern/western periphery of the
residual mid-level moisture that has tracked over the Intermountain
West the past few days. Fuels remain near to record dry across
portions of Utah and Colorado, and multiple large wildfires remain
very active, with a history of pyroCb development in similar
environments.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

...Synopsis...
This week exhibits a critical fire weather pattern for portions of
the Intermountain West with thunderstorms followed by dry and breezy
conditions later in the week, generating a favorable environment for
the emergence of possible holdover lightning ignitions. An
upper-level trough will move into southwest Canada Day
2-3/Wednesday-Thursday, with zonal westerly flow and a flattened
ridge over the northern half to two-thirds of the West. A weak dry
cold front will push through the Northwest and into the Great Basin
on Day 3/Thursday, with residual moisture and above normal
temperatures ahead of it. Moisture will push east of the Colorado
Rockies and be suppressed southward to southern Arizona and New
Mexico beyond Day 4/Friday as a ridge builds across the western
CONUS. Forecast uncertainty exists late in the period regarding how
an upper-level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will interact
with the likely building upper-level ridge over most of the West,
especially the Intermountain West Day 6/Sunday and beyond. Some
ensembles do indicate thunderstorm potential early next week across
portions of central CA and the Sierra Nevada, where fuels will
continue to dry out this weekend out under hot and dry conditions.
Guidance will be monitored closely for dry thunderstorm
probabilities in future outlook cycles.

...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday...
Dry and breezy conditions continue on Day 3/Thursday across the
southern Great Basin into the Four Corners. Following several days
of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, these conditions could promote the
emergence of any holdover lightning ignitions. Some residual
mid-level moisture could promote a few daytime isolated showers over
the eastern Great Basin and northwestern CO, though decreased
instability (compared to previous days) precludes dry thunderstorm
probabilities. An upper-level ridge will build across the
western/central CONUS later this week, amplifying through the
weekend. Meanwhile, upper troughing should persist over the Pacific
Northwest, further enhancing southwesterly flow aloft and dry
downslope flow over the northern Sierra Nevada into the southern
Cascades. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day
4-5/Friday-Saturday where guidance depicts dry and windy conditions
atop dry fuels. The spatial extent of drawn probabilities may be
adjusted in future outlooks as extended guidance becomes better
resolved.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...