Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the
Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.

...Carolinas...
A large upper trough is present today over the eastern states, with
a weak cold front sagging southward across the Carolinas.  Ample
low-level moisture is present to the south of the front from central
SC into southeast NC, with dewpoints in the mid 60s.  Pockets of
daytime heating will destabilize this region, with the potential for
isolated thunderstorm development by early afternoon.  Low-level
winds are veered and relatively weak, limiting frontal convergence
and shear.  A few strong storms may occur with locally gusty winds
and hail.  But the overall threat appears marginal.

...Eastern FL...
Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula with
temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s.  Deep westerly
flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms.  Sufficient deep-layer
vertical shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing
gusty/damaging winds and hail.

...Coastal LA/MS/AL...
A convectively-aided shortwave trough over east TX will continue to
track eastward across the central Gulf Coast region today.  The
combination of daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s
will yield moderate CAPE values, leading to relatively widespread
afternoon thunderstorms from southeast LA into southern MS/AL. 
Low-level winds are weak and lapse rates are rather weak. 
Nevertheless, cooler temperatures aloft and degree of instability
will support a risk of occasionally intense cells capable of
damaging winds and hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/11/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward
through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is
forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and
instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the
airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with
an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the
most.

On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward
into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon
and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary
threats.

By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to
be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to
move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the
shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas
northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability
corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear
are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging
wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and
central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to
become maximized.

...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the
central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes.
Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High
Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate
to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday.
Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable
airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists
concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some
solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from
eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty
exists for the addition of a severe threat area.

On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the
central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be
possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening.
However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of
features at this extended range.