WW 97 SEVERE TSTM MI OH PA LE 041850Z - 050100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 97
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Lower Michigan
Northern and Central Ohio
Far Northwest Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will move quickly
east-northeastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat
for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up
to 60-70 mph. A tornado or two may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest
of Findlay OH to 20 miles southeast of Erie PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
22045.
...Gleason
WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0097 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 0358 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO TOWARD LAKE ERIE AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Areas affected...central and northern Ohio toward Lake Erie and
Vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 041746Z - 042015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop over the next few hours, with
areas of strong to damaging gusts possible. A brief tornado cannot
be ruled out near the warm front.
DISCUSSION...A composite cold front, reinforced by outflow from
ongoing rain, is nearing the IN/OH border, and extending south
across the OH River. Meanwhile, a warm front is moving into extreme
southeast Lower MI, and extending east across Lake Erie and into far
southwestern NY.
Strong heating has already steepened low-level lapse rates across
the warm sector, resulting in strong southerly wind gusts to 30 kt.
As warming persists, the air mass will destabilize further, with
MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg expected.
While deep-layer mean wind fields are substantial with 40-50 kt
speeds common aloft, shear is a bit marginal. Another mitigating
factor is a midlevel subsidence inversion, which is reducing overall
CAPE.
Despite this, the leading north-south outflow boundary will serve as
a focus for renewed development over the next few hours. Additional
storms may form in the warm sector as the air mass becomes uncapped.
The steep low-level lapse rates and 40+ kt mean winds aloft will aid
surface gusts with any of the substantial storms. Low-level shear
near the warm front could favor a brief tornado as the cold front or
individual cells interact, though much of that activity should
quickly cross into cooler air.
..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...
LAT...LON 40328193 39728260 39328433 39348470 39848460 40608450
41258449 41748423 42078378 42178268 42418056 42567944
42387912 42087922 41657999 41388038 40328193
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two appear possible across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this
afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas.
...Midwest/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and Western New York...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest late this morning will
continue moving northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies (with 50+ kt
present at 700 mb) will overspread IN/MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes atop a gradually moistening/heating boundary layer along and
north of the Ohio River.
This will occur ahead of a surface low over WI/MI and convectively
reinforced/southeastward-developing cold front that will impact
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley this afternoon. Recent visible
satellite trends showing clearing across much of OH into northwest
PA suggest sufficient heating and modest diurnal destabilization
will support at least some severe potential regionally as
thunderstorms redevelop and intensify this afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front. Given steepening low-lapse rates and enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly flow, scattered severe/damaging winds
should be the main threat. But, there may also be some potential for
a tornado or two as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front that will extend eastward into central PA.
Overall updraft intensities should decrease by mid to late evening,
owing to stabilizing/nocturnal boundary-layer influences, and the
primary upper trough/low moving northeastward away from the region.
...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms remain extensive this morning
from the Mid-South southwestward into northeast TX, as a surface
cold front continues to progress southeastward across these areas.
Even with considerable cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft ahead
of this ongoing activity, multiple corridors of reinvigorated
convective clusters should develop this afternoon where some cloud
breaks/filtered heating can occur. Downbursts with locally damaging
winds should be the primary severe hazard, but this threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated given lessening deep-layer
shear with southward extent into the lower MS Valley/TX.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/04/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
Sunday afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
coast.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will develop
eastward over the eastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold
front will extend south/southwest across the Mid-Atlantic into
central AL at midday. Ahead of the front, a plume of low 60s F
dewpoints will be in place across the eastern Carolinas into
southern NJ. Where stronger heating can occur, weak destabilization
is expected. Enhanced low and midlevel flow (30-40 kt just off the
surface) could support isolated strong to severe wind gusts where
stronger heating and modest destabilization occurs. Overall severe
thunderstorm potential should be tempered by poor lapse rates and
MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg.
..Leitman.. 04/04/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday. At
the surface, a cold front draped across northern FL will sag
southward. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the front will
support weak destabilization. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon across the FL
Peninsula. Weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude
severe thunderstorm potential. Additional isolated weak
thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southwest as an
upper shortwave trough traverses the region.
..Leitman.. 04/04/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. As was previously
mentioned, rainfall over portions of Texas yesterday and last night
has dampened any fire weather threat there today. Farther west over
portions of southern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, the
duration, coverage, and magnitude of surface wind is likely to
remain below elevated thresholds according to the latest forecast
guidance. See below for additional details.
..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough and attendant surface low will progress
northeastward across the Great Lakes region today, with upper-level
ridging building across the West. A trailing cold front will
progress east-southeastward across the Mississippi/Ohio River
Valleys and southern Texas, with high pressure building into the
Great Plains. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values
are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns.
...Portions of the Texas Rollings Plains into southern New Mexico
and southeastern Arizona...
High resolution guidance continues to depict the potential for
locally elevated fire weather concerns from portions of the Texas
Rolling Plains into southern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona where
sustained northeasterly to easterly surface winds around 15 mph may
briefly overlap reduced RH below 20%. The best chance for locally
elevated fire weather conditions appears to be across the Lowland
Desert of southwestern New Mexico into the San Simon Valley of
southeastern Arizona where terrain effects may locally enhance
sustained winds amid low RH values of 15-20%. Uncertainty in the
duration and areal extent of winds above 15 mph precludes the
addition of Elevated highlights at this time.
Farther east across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains, recent and
ongoing precipitation is expected to limit widespread fire weather
concerns. Locally elevated conditions will be possible for areas
that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulation over the last 48
hours, however.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area, resulting in
slight expansion over portions of southeast Colorado and
south-central New Mexico. As previously mentioned, the uncertainty
of cloud cover prevented expansion any farther south. Fuel
conditions across much of the highlighted and surrounding area of
the southern Plains are some of the driest within the CONUS right
now. Possible expansion to include more of southeast New Mexico will
be monitored with future forecast issuances.
..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will be in place across the West on D2/Sunday,
with longwave upper-level troughing across the Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place
across the central Great Plains while a cold front progresses
eastward across the East Coast and Southeast. A second cold front
will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
A tightened pressure gradient on the western periphery of the
aforementioned surface high will favor sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across much of southern High Plains. This
combination of winds and RH atop dry, receptive fuels should promote
elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours Sunday
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a potential southward
expansion of Elevated highlights; however, uncertainty owing to
greater mid/high cloud cover and more marginal RH values precludes
such an expansion at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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