No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 25 20:51:02 UTC 2026.MD 2410 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern New Mexico into far
west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252048Z - 252315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado may occur this afternoon into early evening. Watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Compared to locations farther north in NM, parts of far
west TX have experienced stronger heating in the presence of greater
low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to
low 60s). Convective initiation is underway across the higher
terrain of far west TX/southeast NM. A combination of moderate
instability and deep-layer shear should prove sufficient for
thunderstorm organization, including the potential for a supercell
or two capable of producing isolated severe hail/wind. However,
better forcing for ascent associated with an ejecting mid-level
shortwave trough over the Four Corners to the central Rockies will
likely tend to remain displaced to the north of this region.
Therefore, current expectations are for strong to severe
thunderstorm coverage to remain fairly limited across southeast
NM/far west TX.
Across east-central NM, a small line segment has recently
strengthened per radar/satellite imagery. This convection should
track northeastward into parts of the western TX Panhandle over the
next couple of hours. Currently, widespread cloudiness is hindering
boundary-layer destabilization downstream of this activity. But, low
60s surface temperatures/dewpoints are attempting to stream
northward along/near an almost stationary front from far
east-central NM into adjacent areas of the western TX Panhandle. The
latest VWP from KFDX shows sufficient low-level shear to support
some risk for a brief tornado, assuming convection can become/remain
surface based. Isolated severe gusts could also occur.
For both regions, the overall severe risk is currently expected to
remain fairly isolated through the afternoon/early evening, and
watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.
..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 31870703 32720672 33120655 33310525 33660468 34610457
35210425 35640365 35740291 35580247 35160236 34410258
33280329 31680316 31190329 30670402 30590487 30840547
31310603 31650646 31870703
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 2409 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Areas affected...Portions of northern/central New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251854Z - 252130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated/marginally severe hail and gusty winds may occur
with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Persistent cloudiness through much of the morning has
hindered diurnal heating/destabilization, but recent clearing has
occurred across parts of northern/central NM. As surface
temperatures continue to warm into the 60s and large-scale ascent
attendant to an ejecting mid/upper-level trough overspreads this
region, convection is forecast to gradually increase in coverage as
weak boundary-layer instability develops. A belt of stronger
south-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over much of NM this
afternoon, and related 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will support
updraft organization. However, generally weak instability (less than
1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and modest mid-level lapse rates (especially
around/above 500 mb) are expected to limit the overall severe risk.
Isolated/marginally severe hail should be the main threat with any
cells that develop and track northeastward over the next several
hours. Some risk for locally gusty winds may also exist where
low-level lapse rates can become steepened with daytime heating.
Given the isolated severe risk forecast, watch issuance is not
expected at this time.
..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33760672 34570712 35170744 35650836 36220828 36280759
36020619 35430516 34700471 33650474 33360526 33500638
33760672
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW MEXICO
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and
tonight from New Mexico into Far West Texas and the western Texas
Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as a
tornado or two are possible in these areas.
...NM into Far West TX...
Recent satellite imagery shows the persistent western CONUS upper
cyclone has trended towards a more open wave structure. Mesoanalysis
places two closed mid-level circulations/cold cores within this
troughing, one over northeast UT and the other over central AZ.
Expectation is for this system to further its evolution into an open
wave as it ejects northeastward across the Four Corners and into the
central Rockies. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout the eastern/southeastern periphery of this wave over NM
today.
Showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing within the warm conveyor
downstream of the cyclone across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle are
forecast to shift northeastward throughout the day. This activity is
expected to remain displaced east of the better low-level moisture
and associated buoyancy. Modest airmass destabilization is
anticipated farther west across northern/central NM where the
mid-level cold pocket interacts with the western edge of residual
low-level moisture. Hail appears likely within any of the deeper and
more persistent updrafts. However, given the limited buoyancy, this
hail is expected to remain largely sub severe with only isolated
instances of hail greater than 1" in diameter.
More destabilization is anticipated farther south (i.e. from
south-central/southeast NM into far west TX). Here, upper 50s
dewpoints will support afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg amid about
30 kt of effective vertical shear. Filtered heating will support
steeper low-level lapse rates as well. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and strong gusts as the
primary threat. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms are also possible
along a weak baroclinic zone from east-central NM into the
northwestern TX Panhandle. Buoyancy will be less here than areas
farther south, but the frontal influence coupled with slightly
stronger vertical shear could result in a supercell or two. Primary
hazard with this activity appears to be hail, but a brief tornado is
also possible.
Lastly, additional thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the
evening and overnight across far west TX (and potentially adjacent
parts of southeast NM) as low-level southeasterly flow strengthens
tonight. Moderate buoyancy and shear will persist, suggesting hail
is possible with the strongest storms.
..Mosier/Halbert.. 10/25/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW MEXICO
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and
tonight from New Mexico into Far West Texas and the western Texas
Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as a
tornado or two are possible in these areas.
...20z Update...
Latest surface observations and objective analysis indicate that
warming surface temperatures (mid-70s F) amid low-60s F dewpoints
are supporting greater buoyancy across portions of southeastern New
Mexico/West Texas. This relatively greater buoyancy (compared to
areas farther north and west) may support a locally greater severe
risk across these regions this afternoon/evening given the
overlapping presence of effective shear of 30-40+ kts. No changes
were made to the existing outlook with this update as overall
expectations for the severe risk remain generally unchanged. See the
discussion below and MCD #2409 for additional short-term details.
..Chalmers.. 10/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026/
...NM into Far West TX...
Recent satellite imagery shows the persistent western CONUS upper
cyclone has trended towards a more open wave structure. Mesoanalysis
places two closed mid-level circulations/cold cores within this
troughing, one over northeast UT and the other over central AZ.
Expectation is for this system to further its evolution into an open
wave as it ejects northeastward across the Four Corners and into the
central Rockies. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout the eastern/southeastern periphery of this wave over NM
today.
Showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing within the warm conveyor
downstream of the cyclone across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle are
forecast to shift northeastward throughout the day. This activity is
expected to remain displaced east of the better low-level moisture
and associated buoyancy. Modest airmass destabilization is
anticipated farther west across northern/central NM where the
mid-level cold pocket interacts with the western edge of residual
low-level moisture. Hail appears likely within any of the deeper and
more persistent updrafts. However, given the limited buoyancy, this
hail is expected to remain largely sub severe with only isolated
instances of hail greater than 1" in diameter.
More destabilization is anticipated farther south (i.e. from
south-central/southeast NM into far west TX). Here, upper 50s
dewpoints will support afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg amid about
30 kt of effective vertical shear. Filtered heating will support
steeper low-level lapse rates as well. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and strong gusts as the
primary threat. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms are also possible
along a weak baroclinic zone from east-central NM into the
northwestern TX Panhandle. Buoyancy will be less here than areas
farther south, but the frontal influence coupled with slightly
stronger vertical shear could result in a supercell or two. Primary
hazard with this activity appears to be hail, but a brief tornado is
also possible.
Lastly, additional thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the
evening and overnight across far west TX (and potentially adjacent
parts of southeast NM) as low-level southeasterly flow strengthens
tonight. Moderate buoyancy and shear will persist, suggesting hail
is possible with the strongest storms.
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