No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 29 23:29:01 UTC 2026.MD 2336 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains into far
east-central New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 292326Z - 300130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Occasional mini supercells may continue to pose a risk of
a brief/weak tornado for the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Cellular convection continues to evolve along the
northern periphery of low-level warm advection focused across parts
of the TX Panhandle west-southwestward into far east-central NM.
While buoyancy in this corridor is weak, a moist environment (upper
60s dewpoints) and a small clockwise-curved hodograph (sampled by
the AMA VWP) could continue to support occasional mini supercell
structures -- similar to what occurred approximately 40 miles east
of Amarillo, TX during the last hour. Any brief/weak tornado risk
should generally be associated with favorable/low-predictability
cell interactions in this corridor for the next few hours, and
overall confidence in this scenario remains low.
..Weinman/Hart.. 09/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34930075 33970309 33980362 34120386 34330396 34540392
34980325 35810122 35900053 35740028 35450019 35130031
34930075
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 2335 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Areas affected...southeast New Mexico into parts of western Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 292309Z - 300145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage and intensity over the
next few hours. At least isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado
will be possible.
DISCUSSION...A midlevel disturbance ahead of the primary upper low
is now moving into NM and far western TX. Widespread precipitation
and embedded thunderstorms currently extend from Hudspeth County
north/northeastward toward the Clovis area.
East of this ongoing activity, MLCAPE is generally in the 1000-1500
J/kg range, owing to a moisture rich air mass with mid to upper 60s
F dewpoints. Area VWPs indicate around 20 kt 850 mb winds out of the
southeast currently, but these winds are forecast to increase
rapidly after 00Z, possibly reaching 50 kt between 03-06Z. This will
both increase low-level shear, and storm relative inflow. Deep-layer
shear over 40 kt may also support a degree of organization.
Given the influx of low-level theta-e into the region, storms,
perhaps evolving into a north-south line, are expected. Isolated
damaging winds cannot be ruled out with mainly wet downbursts, but
the high RH boundary layer combined with increasing shear could just
as well result in QLCS structures, with brief tornado risk. Storm
evolution will continue to be monitored throughout the evening.
..Jewell/Hart.. 09/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 31270413 32350472 32650499 32920529 33180489 33750445
33890420 33860304 33780249 33780249 33560222 32920222
32370231 32000257 31660296 31300347 31270413
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
ARIZONA ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm wind gusts and possibly a tornado or
two could occur this afternoon into tonight from southeast Arizona
across southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas.
...20z Update...
No changes were made to the existing severe probabilities with this
update as the forecast remains generally on track. An increase in
thunderstorm coverage (likely in the form of a complex/linear storm
mode) is expected this afternoon/evening as the remnant core of Polo
progresses northeastward into the southern High Plains. As this
occurs, isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may
occur, with locally greater potential possible from southeastern New
Mexico into West Texas where less prevalent cloud cover has allowed
for stronger diurnal heating through mid afternoon. See the
discussion below for additional details.
..Chalmers/Thornton.. 09/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fairly complex synoptic evolution is anticipated today through
tonight as a remnants of what is currently Hurricane Polo become
absorbed within the circulation of the deepening mid-latitude
cyclone currently centered over the Lower CO River Valley. In
general, the Lower CO River Valley cyclone is forecast to deepen as
it gradually shifts eastward. In response, Hurricane Polo is
forecast to move quickly northeastward across Sonora and into New
Mexico. Polo is forecast to weaken over the mountainous terrain of
northern Mexico, but will likely maintain some of its warm-core
characteristics through at least tomorrow morning. Additionally,
mass response across the southern High Plains will result in
increasing low-level moisture advection across the southern Plains
while also aiding in surface cyclogenesis across central and eastern
NM late tonight/early tomorrow.
...Southern Arizona...
Recent surface analysis reveals a very moist airmass over southern
AZ, with a corridor of mid to upper 60s dewpoints extending from the
central southern border into the Phoenix vicinity. Surface analysis
also places a weak low over south-central AZ. VAD profiles from IWA
and EMX both show fairly long hodographs, supported by 30 to 40 kt
of low/mid-level southwesterly flow. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will likely continue throughout the day, with limited
diurnal heating and weak tropical lapse rates keeping buoyancy
modest. Even so, the strong nature of the wind profiles could
support a few at least weak/transient supercells, and potentially
more organized convective bands later today, with at least some
potential for strong thunderstorm wind gusts.
...Southern High Plains...
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase notably this
afternoon/evening as the core of Polo progresses into the region.
Tropical character of the airmass will keep lapse rates poor while
cloud cover also limits heating, limiting the overall buoyancy.
Nonetheless, buoyant thermodynamic profiles are still expected to
result in updrafts deep enough for lightning production.
Additionally, low-level wind profiles are expected to lengthen
significantly after 00Z as the remnants of Polo interact with a
dynamically strengthening low-level jet. The widespread storm
coverage will result in a tendency toward complex or linear storm
modes with time, though a few/episodic supercells will also be
possible. A brief tornado and/or strong wind gusts could accompany
any organized, more persistent storm structures.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper low over the southern High Plains Thursday morning is
expected to transition to a weakening trough extending from the
mid/lower MO Valley into the southern Plains by Thursday night.
During that break-down process, a series of vorticity maxima and an
associated belt of 40-50 kt mid-level flow will spread from the
southern Plains into the OH Valley. At the surface, an area of low
pressure will likewise weaken over south-central KS or north-central
OK ahead of a cold front settling south through the central Plains
and upper Midwest. The cold front will gradually overtake a
north-south-oriented Pacific front, which is forecast to stall over
the southern Plains.
...Southern Plains...
Spread exists across 12Z model guidance in the track of the upper
low, which will transition to an open wave on Thursday. The ECMWF in
particular has trended farther south with the primary vorticity lobe
emerging from the opening mid-level wave across OK. That scenario
leads to stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear centered
over the Red River Valley, compared to prior model runs. However,
the potential for early-day storms leads to uncertainty in the
degree of air mass destabilization by afternoon within that region.
Confidence in more robust air mass destabilization increases with
southward extent, especially from portions of central TX into the
lower Rio Grande Valley, where vertical shear will be weaker. Given
these considerations, the Marginal-Risk probabilities have been
broadened over the Red River Valley to account for the conditional
risk for organized severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening. A
slight expansion of the Marginal-Risk probabilities was made over
the lower Rio Grande Valley to accommodate the potential for a
southeast-moving cluster of storms capable of sporadic damaging
winds Thursday afternoon and evening.
...Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley...
Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent are expected to increase
through the day, as highlighted in the synopsis. Considerable shower
and thunderstorm activity is anticipated along and ahead of the
front, which is expected to limit the degree of air mass
destabilization. However, where pockets of stronger heating can
occur, a strong to severe storm or two appears possible with the
primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Confidence in where any
greater destabilization might occur currently remains too low to
include a Marginal-Risk probability contour.
...Central Kansas into northern Oklahoma...
As mentioned above, there is model variability in the track of the
mid-level wave and, by extension, the location of the surface low.
Nonetheless, a strong storm or two could develop Thursday afternoon
in the vicinity of the surface triple point, given sufficient air
mass destabilization.
..Mead.. 09/29/2026
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