Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Great Lakes to the
Northeast on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced
southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the
northeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from
Ohio to the Mid-South, then westward into north/central TX  by
mid/late afternoon. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place
ahead of the front. Pockets of moderate to strong instability will
develop across parts of the southern Plains vicinity as the cold
front develops southward through the period. Additional areas of
moderate to strong destabilization are possible across the
Mid-Atlantic vicinity. 

...Mid-Atlantic...

Currently, the best overlap of enhanced west/southwesterly shear and
MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg appears to be across the Mid-Atlantic from
eastern VA into southeast PA/southern NJ within a moist axis and
pre-frontal surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms may develop
within this area during peak heating and pose a risk mainly for
damaging gusts. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected with
northward extent into PA/NY and portions of New England. However,
degree of destabilization is uncertain due to cloud cover and
possible remnant convection over the Ohio Valley from the Day
2/Saturday period moving across the Upper Ohio Valley early in the
period ahead of the surface cold front. Depending on model trends
and mesoscale details emanating from prior day convection, severe
probability could be adjusted northward in subsequent outlooks.

...Southeast NM into the ArkLaTex...

Convection will develop near the southward-advancing surface front
during the afternoon within a very moist and moderately unstable
airmass. Convection may tend to be anafrontal, and storms could
quickly become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, isolated strong
gusts and hail will be possible with stronger storms.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Mon-Tue...

A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast
vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies.
As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any
deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed
from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.

...Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to
the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on
Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central
Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases.
This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the
Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This
could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these
regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm
coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of
greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold
front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually,
but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional
probabilities at this time.

...Day 8/Fri...

Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the
Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing
will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a
shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central
Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support
some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large
model spread.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...Synopsis...
Between a broad large-scale trough encompassing the northern
Rockies/Plains and an upper ridge over the Southwest/southern
Rockies, a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft will persist across
the Great Basin and central Rockies/adjacent High Plains through the
day. 

...Eastern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/Plains...
Diurnal heating of a dry antecedent air mass (with poor overnight
recoveries) will result in deep boundary-layer mixing this afternoon
(RH in the singly digits to lower/middle teens). Within the
deep/well-mixed boundary layer, efficient downward momentum
transport of the enhanced flow aloft will yield a broad area of
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (locally higher over
terrain-favored areas). Given critically dry fuels across the region
(90th-95th percentile ERCs), elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions are expected. 

Farther north, strengthening midlevel westerly flow in the base of
the trough will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer in the
Snake River Plain, resulting in 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph
sustained westerly surface winds. These dry/breezy conditions atop
dry/receptive fuels will promote elevated fire-weather conditions
during the afternoon.

..Weinman.. 06/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...