WW 281 SEVERE TSTM CT DE NJ NY PA CW 062045Z - 070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
445 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme southwest Connecticut
Northern Delaware
New Jersey
Southeast New York
Southeast Pennsylvania
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will spread generally eastward from
Pennsylvania and northern Maryland into New Jersey, northern
Delaware and southeast New York (including Philadelphia and New York
City) through late evening. The more intense storms will be capable
of damaging wind swaths up to 75 mph, along with isolated hail near
1 inch in diameter.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest
of Allentown PA to 25 miles south southeast of Islip NY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...WW
279...WW 280...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
28040.
...Thompson
WW 280 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NY PA 062005Z - 070100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme northwest Connecticut
Extreme western Massachusetts
Southern New York
Northeast Pennsylvania
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop in the warm sector
from northeast Pennsylvania into southern New York. The storm
environment favors primarily multicell clusters with the potential
to produce wind damage and isolated large hail through late evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles southeast of
Pittsfield MA to 20 miles southwest of Binghamton NY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...WW 279...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Thompson
WW 279 SEVERE TSTM IN OH 061945Z - 070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and central Indiana
Central and west central Ohio
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are expected to continue developing and
spreading east-southeastward from Indiana into Ohio along a residual
outflow boundary. The stronger storm clusters (with some supercell
structure possible) will be capable of producing large hail up to
1.5 inches in diameter and wind damage with outflow gusts up to 65
mph through late evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of
Lafayette IN to 35 miles south southeast of Columbus OH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Thompson
WW 278 SEVERE TSTM MD PA VA WV 061740Z - 070000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
The Maryland Panhandle
Central Pennsylvania
Extreme northern Virginia
The eastern West Virginia Panhandle
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Storms are forming in western Pennsylvania, and a separate
storm cluster in Ohio has a history of wind damage. Either or both
areas of storms will spread into central Pennsylvania through the
afternoon, and potentially as far south as the West
Virginia/Maryland Panhandles. Damaging gusts will be the main
threat, though the strongest storms could also produce isolated
large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter).
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south
southwest of Dubois PA to 40 miles northeast of Harrisburg PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28040.
...Thompson
WW 277 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 061555Z - 062200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Ohio
Western Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia and the northern West Virginia Panhandle
* Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1155 AM until
600 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms in central Ohio is expected to
strengthen through the afternoon while moving generally eastward
across eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and northern West
Virginia. Wind damage will be the main threat (gusts of 60-70 mph),
though isolated large hail (up to 1.5 inches in diameter) will be
possible with the stronger embedded storms. An isolated tornado or
two could also occur with embedded circulations later this
afternoon.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north
northwest of Zanesville OH to 20 miles northeast of Latrobe PA. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28040.
...Thompson
WW 0281 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0281 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0280 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THORNTON..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 279
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-011-015-017-023-035-041-045-047-049-053-057-059-
065-067-069-075-085-095-097-099-103-107-131-135-139-149-157-159-
161-169-171-177-179-181-183-062140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
BOONE CARROLL CASS
CLINTON DELAWARE FAYETTE
FOUNTAIN FRANKLIN FULTON
GRANT HAMILTON HANCOCK
HENRY HOWARD HUNTINGTON
JAY KOSCIUSKO MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MIAMI
MONTGOMERY PULASKI RANDOLPH
RUSH STARKE TIPPECANOE
TIPTON UNION WABASH
WARREN WAYNE WELLS
WHITE WHITLEY
OHC003-011-017-021-023-027-037-045-047-049-057-071-073-091-097-
107-109-113-129-131-135-141-149-161-165-062140-
OH
WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
..THORNTON..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 278
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC001-003-005-013-015-021-023-025-027-031-043-510-062140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE
CARROLL CECIL FREDERICK
GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD
MONTGOMERY WASHINGTON
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
PAC001-009-013-021-023-027-033-035-037-041-043-047-055-057-061-
067-071-075-081-083-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-
123-133-062140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR
WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW UNI TO
5 ESE ZZV TO 25 NE CAK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
..THORNTON..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...RLX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 277
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC013-019-029-059-067-081-111-115-121-167-062140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA
GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON
MONROE MORGAN NOBLE
WASHINGTON
PAC003-005-007-019-031-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121-125-129-
062140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER
BUTLER CLARION FAYETTE
FOREST GREENE INDIANA
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MERCER
VENANGO WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND
MD 1007 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern and central Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 062142Z - 062245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to increase in
coverage this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are
becoming more likely.
DISCUSSION...As of 2135 UTC, satellite and radar imagery over the
Great Lakes showed new thunderstorm development ongoing along an
east-west oriented surface front from western Lake Erie into
southern lower MI and northern IN. South of the boundary, upper 60s
to low 70s F surface dewpoints and strong heating are supporting
moderate instability with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. With 40-50 kt of
deep-layer flow aloft overspreading the unstable air mass, organized
storms are expected. Already, supercells structures have been
observed and are likely to be the primary convective mode. Hail and
damaging winds are possible. Though surface flow is modest, some
veering and the potential for supercells suggests a tornado or two
is also possible.
Uncertainty remains on the east/southeastern extent of the severe
risk given ongoing convection over central/southern OH and the
impact of an earlier MCS. A remnant baroclinic zone may be the
primary focus for the strongest storms into central/northeastern OH
this evening. Given the expected increase in severe risk, a WW is
likely needed.
..Lyons/Gleason.. 06/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...
LAT...LON 41268109 40648078 39778090 39618112 39898217 40858397
41158448 41508438 41678386 41728325 41578244 41568159
41408124 41268109
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 1006 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN/EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeastern/east-central New Mexico
into the far western Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062055Z - 062300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may bring a risk for isolated
damaging to severe wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail
through this afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/radar imagery depicts developing
thunderstorms along the southern portions of the southern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains in northeastern New Mexico. Continued diurnal
heating of moist, southerly flow is supporting weak buoyancy
(500-1000 J/kg), with well-mixed boundary layer profiles in place
(steep low-level lapse rates and LCLs around 2000-2500 m per latest
objective analysis). Enhanced northerly mid-level flow (30-40+ kts
sampled at 3 km AGL by the FDX/AMA/LUB VWPs) on the western edge of
a mid-level closed low/MCV is contributing to around 25-30 kts of
effective shear. Coupled with a favorable environment for
evaporative cooling, this may promote modest organization of a
convective cluster along a developing cold pool. Latest guidance
suggests such a cluster will evolve off of the mountains
south-southeastward into east-central New Mexico and perhaps the far
western Texas Panhandle through this afternoon/evening. Should this
scenario occur, the primary threat would be isolated damaging to
potentially severe wind gusts. An instance or two of marginally
severe hail may also be possible, mainly with any more robust,
initially discrete updrafts. Watch issuance is not anticipated at
this time owing to the expected isolated nature of the severe risk.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 06/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34890505 35260518 35770505 36460463 36670440 36790419
36670384 36270345 35890319 35550303 35170292 34710289
34420307 34240333 34160375 34210426 34410474 34890505
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK...NORTHERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 1005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Areas affected...western Pennsylvania...New Jersey...New
York...northern Maryland...Delaware
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 062017Z - 062215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Downstream damaging wind potential will increase into the
late afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...Several clusters of severe storms are advancing
eastward across PA/WV this afternoon producing gusts 60-70 mph.
These will likely persist downstream into portions of New Jersey,
southeast New York, northern Maryland, and Delaware including
Philadelphia and New York City. The environment downstream is
characterized by temperatures in the mid 80s to 90s and gradually
increasing MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg from the west. Steep low level
lapse rates around 7-8 C/km and the increasingly warm and unstable
air mass will support maintenance of thunderstorms downstream with
potential for continued gusts to 70+ mph. A watch will be needed
soon to cover this potential.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 41097636 41447570 41547373 41507292 41277221 40927223
40237329 39577392 39087446 38897472 38817493 38977579
39007650 39617667 41097636
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 1004 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278... FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND/WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Areas affected...central Pennsylvania into northern Maryland/West
Virginia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278...
Valid 061957Z - 062200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW277 and WW278.
DISCUSSION...Several clusters of thunderstorm activity continue
across much of PA into northern MD/WV this afternoon. The strongest
cluster to the south has produced winds around 60-75 mph over the
last hour. Radar presentation continues to show 50-60 kt winds in
the lowest 3-5 kft. Given continued warming/destabilization to the
east, this will likely be where the greatest short term risk for
severe winds 60-70+ mph. Additionally, strong to severe gusts will
continue with the clusters to the north and east.
..Thornton.. 06/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39227844 39197873 39207941 39298027 39458019 39947931
40267932 40877893 41097872 41607810 41687738 41467649
41107636 40557638 39987654 39537706 39297789 39227844
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind swaths (some gusts possibly exceeding
75 mph) and isolated large hail are expected this afternoon/evening
from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England. Large hail and severe wind gusts (including gusts exceeding
75 mph) are also expected in the northern High Plains late this
afternoon/evening.
...20Z Update...
The primary changes to the outlook were to upgrade to Enhanced Risk
across portions of the Mid Atlantic and the northern High Plains for
the potential of severe wind swaths.
Across the Mid Atlantic, a cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS continues
to rapidly track eastward with a history of both wind damage and
measured severe gusts well exceeding 50 knots. To the north of this
bow echo, more multicellular convection has oscillated in intensity,
also with a history of occasional damaging gusts. The latest
mesoanalysis depicts increasing buoyancy and eroding MLCINH ahead of
the aforementioned ongoing storms, with surface temperatures
exceeding 90 F, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. The strongly heated
boundary layer will encourage efficient evaporative cooling and
downward momentum transport to support damaging to severe gusts.
Furthermore, appreciable westerly flow above 500 mb is encouraging
35+ kts of effective bulk shear oriented normal to the bow echo and
surrounding storms. This shear may aid in continued or further
development of organized storm modes capable of producing damaging
wind swaths, perhaps with a few gusts exceeding 75 mph.
Across the northern High Plains, guidance consensus continues to
depict multicellular modes of convection developing atop a
well-mixed boundary layer, where 90+ F surface temperatures and
2500+ J/kg MLCAPE are already in place. The current thinking is that
40+ kts of effective bulk shear will be in place to support
organized multicells and perhaps an MCS later this evening. As such,
a damaging wind swath may occur, with a few 75+ mph gusts possible.
Across the remainder of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains on
track.
..Squitieri.. 06/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026/
...OH Valley into New England through late evening...
A surface cyclone will move eastward across southern QC this
afternoon and into northern New England tonight, in advance of a
midlevel shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. An associated
surface cold front will progress southward into the OH Valley and
southeastward to near the southern New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coasts by early Sunday. A convective cluster is
ongoing as of midday in OH to the south of the cold front, and it
appears likely that these storms will be maintained through the
afternoon as surface temperatures continue to warm and MLCAPE
increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Sufficient buoyancy, along
with steepening low-level lapse rates and gradually strengthening
midlevel flow, will result in the potential for downward momentum
transfer and wind damage from eastern OH across PA through the
afternoon (potentially reaching Philadelphia-New York City by this
evening). Otherwise, additional storm development will be possible
later this afternoon along the cold front from the OH Valley into
NY, where a mix of supercells and multicell clusters will be capable
of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a tornado or
two.
...Northern High Plains late this afternoon through late evening...
A midlevel trough will continue eastward from WA/OR to the northern
Rockies, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across southeast
MT. Forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures will need to
reach ~90 F to weaken convective inhibition and support thunderstorm
development along the stalled front across northeast MT/northwest ND
late this afternoon/evening. Forecast wind profiles support both
multicell clusters and supercells, and steep lapse rates through
most of the column will favor both severe outflow gusts (up to 75
mph) and large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter) with a mix of
high-based supercells and multicell clusters.
...TX/OK this afternoon...
Pockets of surface heating from central/northwest TX into southern
OK, near and south of a weak surface low and MCV, will support
additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated
wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main concerns
this afternoon.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging hail and wind (some
significant), and perhaps a tornado or two are forecast across the
northern High Plains. More isolated storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts centered over southeast Virginia, with a
brief/weak tornado possible from eastern Oklahoma into western
Arkansas.
...Northern Plains...
A strong shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest and
across MT Sunday, continuing northeastward into SK overnight. The
southern periphery of the stronger midlevel flow will extend across
WY and into the western Dakotas, aiding deep-layer shear. At the
surface, low pressure will deepen across the northern High Plains,
ahead of a cold front which will surge into eastern MT and northern
WY late in the day.
Storms are likely to form over southeast MT and northern WY during
the late afternoon near the higher terrain, and within the surface
trough from western ND to the Black Hills.
Supercells appear likely initially as deep-layer shear and lapse
rates will be favorable. A tornado or two may occur with these
initial supercells over MT/WY/Black Hills area, and, over northern
ND where low-level SRH will be strongest. Locally significant hail
may occur as well.
With time, one or more corridors of severe and possibly significant
wind damage is expected, as storms produce outflow and propagate
northeastward into the Dakotas. Several models indicate a strong
rear-inflow signal with over 50 kt westerlies just off the surface
behind the activity.
...Eastern OK into AR and southwest MO...
A weak midlevel wave will move northeastward across OK and toward
MO, while southerly surface winds generally increase across the
Plains. A broad area of upper 60s F to 70s F dewpoints will develop
northward over the entire region, with areas of moderate instability
and high PWAT developing. Some increase in diurnal convection is
anticipated, related to the midlevel wave, which may enhance wind
profiles somewhat. Forecast soundings indicate veering winds with
height, and 200-300 m2/s2 SRH may develop late in the day and into
the evening. In addition to heavy rain, any stronger cells that
develop may acquire rotation, with a brief tornado or two possible.
...Southeast VA into far northeast NC...
A shortwave trough will exist over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast,
with 30-40 kt midlevel northwesterlies into eastern VA. A surface
trough will extend southwestward from the parent low over the
Maritimes, into the DelMarVa, southeast VA and northeast NC during
the afternoon. Strong heating will result in steep boundary layer
lapse rates, while sufficient low-level moisture supports marginal
instability. Given the favorable time of day and convergence near
the trough, isolated cells are expected which may produce locally
damaging gusts.
..Jewell.. 06/06/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS LATE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and
evening. Isolated hail cannot be ruled out over the far northern
Plains near the Canadian border into Tuesday morning.
...Synopsis...
On Monday, a shortwave trough will continue moving north across
central Canada, with height rises across the Plains during the day.
Scattered early day thunderstorms are expected to diminish across
the northern Plains and upper MS Valley as subsidence occurs aloft.
During the afternoon, a lee trough is forecast to redevelop from
eastern WY into CO and toward the OK/TX Panhandles, where strong
heating will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and a deeply mixed
boundary layer. Moisture will be more limited, but late-developing
southeast surface winds will eventually bring higher dewpoints
westward toward the surface trough.
...Central Plains...
Storms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and early
evening over eastern CO, with more isolated activity along the
dryline into the TX Panhandle. Deep-layer shear near 35 kt as well
as increasing 850 mb winds may support a few clusters of storms
persisting into western NE and KS through the evening as well.
Locally damaging wind gusts appear most probable.
...Far northeast MT...Northern ND...Northwest MN...
A warm front will develop and surge northward late Monday night into
Tuesday morning, close to the Canadian border by 12Z. This will
occur ahead of a developing shortwave trough moving into the
northern Rockies. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated
CAPE will be possible, as a 40 kt southerly low-level jet brings
moisture northward. Lapse rates aloft will be steep, and may favor
isolated hail.
...Mid MS/OH Valleys...
A slow-moving midlevel wave is likely to be located over the Mid MS
to OH Valley, where a very moist air mass will exist. Scattered
thunderstorms are likely with this feature, which may also be
accompanied by stronger low-level shear on the mesoscale. However,
predictability for this feature is low this far out in time.
..Jewell.. 06/06/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHWEST...
The northern extent of the Elevated area over WY was expanded
commensurate with the latest forecast guidance showing the hot, dry,
and windy conditions progressing farther northeast today. Very
localized extremely critical conditions will be possible this
afternoon over terrain-favored areas of southwest UT. The certainty,
areal extent, and limited duration preclude the introduction of any
drawn areas with this morning's update. However, portions of this
same area will likely see Elevated conditions exceeding 18 hours of
duration today into tonight. Satellite imagery over much of the
highlighted areas shows fully sunny skies this morning with
scattered low and mid-level clouds over much of the central Rockies.
Surface observations are also showing southwest winds beginning to
exceed 15 mph across portions of UT and WY combined with RHs in the
single digits to mid-teens already this morning. A quick-moving
thunderstorm or two is not out of the question for northern UT
tonight, but the threat doesn't appear widespread or certain enough
to include a drawn risk area. The rest of the forecast remains on
track as previously described.
..Stearns.. 06/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
An intensifying upper trough over the Northwest is forecast to
spread eastward into the Northern Rockies and southern Canada today
and tonight. A lee low is forecast to deepen over the northern Great
Basin and northern MT before moving northward into southern Canada.
Stronger flow aloft will move southeastward, overspreading a dry and
hot air mass over much of the western US. This will promote
widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions atop dry
fuels from the Great Basin to the Southwest. Isolated dry
thunderstorms are also possible as moisture increases across the
central Rockies and High Plains.
...Great Basin and Southwest...
As the upper trough over the Northwest and northern Rockies
intensifies, two belts of stronger mid-level flow will overspread
portions of the Great Basin and central Rockies. This, along with an
enhanced surface pressure gradient from the deepening lee low in
northern MT will bolster surface winds to 20-30 mph from
northeastern NV southward into UT, northern AZ and western CO. In
combination with high temperatures and low RH of 10-20%, widespread
elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected amid a
dry fuelscape.
Locally critical conditions may also extend across northern and
western NV into far southern OR along the lee of the Sierras.
Several hours of gusty surface winds (20-25 mph) and RH below 20%
are expected this afternoon. However, less receptive fuels, owing to
greater rainfall in the past 2 weeks, suggests critical conditions,
while possible, will be more localized.
Weaker flow aloft across southern AZ and the Four Corners will still
promote widespread elevated conditions with 10-20% RH and surface
gusts of 15-25 mph. Potentially enhanced by local terrain, some
potential for brief critical conditions may develop given drying
fuels and increasing burn period duration.
...ID and Northern Rockies...
Ascent from the upper trough will impinge on the western edge of
modest surface moisture moving westward into the higher terrain near
the lee low and surface trough. This ascent and diurnal heating
could support isolated thunderstorm development across eastern ID
and far southwestern MT. Likely high-based, these fast-moving storms
would have limited precipitation efficiency and some potential for
drier strikes. However, forecast coverage is likely to remain sparse
and areas where storms are more likely to develop have fuels that
are less receptive to starts.
...Central High Plains...
As westerly flow aloft overspreads the Rockies, enhanced lee trough
will aide in marginal low-level moisture transport across the
central High Plains and Front Range. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible across parts of northern CO and southern WY and western NE.
Fast storm motions, and high cloud bases suggest these storms are
unlikely to support widespread rainfall. With pockets of drier fuels
present, isolated dry thunderstorms and lightning starts are
possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...SOUTHWEST...AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...
An area of Isolated Dry Thunder was introduced over portions of
central/northern UT and western WY on Day 2/Sunday near the
previously mentioned frontal boundary. Isolated thunderstorm
coverage amid a significant sub-cloud dry layer, combined with
limited precipitable water near 1/2 inch, and quick storm motion
near 25-35 kts over receptive fuels will lead to the threat of dry
lightning ignitions in the morning hours and again by peak heating
in the early/mid afternoon hours.
Regarding the surface wind/RH threat, a few small changes were made.
The Critical area was expanded over much of northeast AZ as the
latest forecast guidance has trended toward strong winds over this
region amid the hot and very low RHs. Keep in mind that should
ignitions occur over this region, burn periods will continue to
extend well into the overnight hours with RHs failing to rise above
20-30% in almost all drawn areas of the southern Great Basin and
Southwest. The larger Elevated area was also expanded over much of
the Mojave Desert as well as northern NM and across much of the
Front Range of the central Rocky Mountains. With this expansion,
there are high elevation portions of the central Rocky Mountains
included that are may struggle to meet wind/RH criteria amid less
critically dry fuel conditions. The targeted Elevated to Critical
threat across portions of the Snake River Plain remains on track
from previous forecast issuances.
..Stearns.. 06/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper-level low over the Northwest will advance towards the
Northern Rockies, as a surface low intensifies over the northern
Plains with the trailing cold front moving through the northern
Great Basin. This will bolster surface winds across parts of the
Southwest and central Rockies mid a very dry air mass. Elevated to
critical fire-weather conditions are likely.
...Southern Great Basin and central Rockies...
Beneath the stronger flow loft, gusty surface winds are again likely
ahead of the cold front from southern NV, into UT, parts of western
CO and southwestern WY. Aided by deep mixing and 30-40 kt of
southwest flow aloft, afternoon surface winds of 20-30 mph are
expected. Poor to nonexistent overnight humidity recoveries and
afternoon minimums of 5 to 15 percent will exacerbate critical fuels
across the Southern Rockies and Southwest. The combination of very
dry air, strong winds and receptive fuels will favor several hours
of widespread critical conditions Sunday afternoon.
...ID...
Beneath the upper trough, continued strong southwesterly flow aloft
will bolster surface winds through the Snake River Plains and
southern ID. Gusty surface winds of 20-35 mph and RH of 10-20% will
support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather
conditions Sunday. Gusty wind and low humidity may extend farther
eastward into ID and far western WY, but here fuels here have
received recent rainfall and are less receptive.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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