No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 25 08:19:02 UTC 2026.MD 0053 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN MS...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...SOUTHWEST KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...Far Northern MS...Western/Middle TN...Southwest KY
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 250723Z - 251130Z
SUMMARY...Mixed winter precipitation is expected to continue for at
least the next several hours from northern MS across western/middle
TN and into southwest KY for the next several hours. Freezing rain
rates over 0.03"/hour are possible.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown a notable increase in
reflectivity across western TN over the past half hour. Based on
radar data from KNQA, this area of increased reflectivity is
occurring between 3000 and 4000 ft, which is near where refreezing
into sleet would occur based on area forecast soundings.
Consequently, this increased reflectivity is likely more related to
bright band effects than increasing precipitation rates, while also
indicating where the transition zone from freezing rain to sleet is
currently located.
Expectation is for this transition zone to drift
northward/northwestward over the next few hours as the warm nose
increases slightly amid continued warm-air advection. This warm-air
advection will also foster continued precipitation, confirmed by
regional radar imagery showing widespread upstream precipitation.
All of these factors suggest that mixed winter precipitation will
continue from northern MS across western/middle TN and into
southwest KY for the next several hours. Freezing rain rates up to
0.03"/hr. have already been observed at BNA, with similar (and
higher) rates possible over the next few hours, particularly over
western TN.
..Mosier.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35938959 36848885 37428764 37458617 36678557 35328654
34758871 35058981 35938959
MD 0052 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...Northern South Carolina...Central and Northern
North Carolina...Southern Virginia
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 250720Z - 251315Z
SUMMARY...Areas of freezing rain are expected through Sunday morning
from South Carolina into southern and central North Carolina. From
northern North Carolina into southern Virginia, a mix of snow and
sleet is expected to changeover to a mix of sleet and freezing rain
by daybreak.
DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows abundant mid-level
moisture across most of the east-central U.S. within
west-southwesterly flow aloft. A broad mid-level jet extends
westward from the Northeast into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Strong lift within the right entrance region of the jet
combined with a broad zone of warm advection will continue to be
favorable for widespread precipitation from the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley eastward to the Eastern Seaboard. From the Carolinas
northward, a sub-freezing airmass is in place but temperatures in
the low to mid-levels are warm, with forecast soundings showing a
warm nose just above 850 mb ranging from +5 To +10 C. This
temperature profile will be favorable for freezing rain from South
Carolina northward into southern and central North Carolina through
daybreak.
Further to the north across northern North Carolina and southern
Virginia, low to mid-level temperatures are cold enough for a mix of
snow and sleet. As strong warm advection continues over the next few
hours, a gradual transition to sleet and freezing rain is expected.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34697911 34398011 34208103 34178191 34348233 34568245
34968236 35428187 36398005 36857935 37127869 37197770
37077700 36817666 36517661 36127680 35317772 34697911
MD 0051 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...Southern Illinois into southern Indiana and
southwest Ohio
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 250500Z - 251100Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow band development is anticipated through the
next several hours across portions of the Ohio River Valley.
Snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch/hour appear probable later tonight.
DISCUSSION...A broad band of heavier precipitation is beginning to
emerge from northern AR into the lower OH Valley per regional radar
mosaics over the past 1-2 hours. This comes amid strengthening
frontogenesis through a deep layer (925-700 mb per recent
mesoanalyses) as the primary upper wave begins to migrate eastward
into the southern Plains. Latest forecast guidance shows
intensifying frontogenesis across the lower MS Valley into the OH
Valley through 09-12 UTC, which will support further
organization/intensification of a focused mesoscale precipitation
band. With mid-level temperatures below freezing north of the OH
River, snow should remain the predominant precipitation type.
Moderate snowfall rates will be common with a focused corridor of
higher rates (in excess of 1 inch/hour) likely. Per recent ensemble
guidance, this corridor will most likely emerge across southern IL
into southern IN and southwest OH.
These solutions also depict optimal banding potential during the
09-12 UTC period later tonight into early Sunday morning. However,
recent ASOS/AWOS observations from southern IL and southern IN have
shown an uptick in snowfall intensity (denoted by reduced
visibilities to 1/2 mile or less) over the past hour. These trends
suggest that the onset of heavier snowfall rates may commence
earlier than currently anticipated by most guidance as intermittent
moderate to heavy snow bands becomes more prominent with time.
..Moore.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39118269 39008330 38248609 37788746 37478836 37358887
37458924 37648940 38458944 38728928 38968886 40158461
40308388 40298326 40208288 39988248 39738234 39498228
39248243 39118269
MD 0050 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...portions of south-central/eastern Texas into
western Louisiana
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 250452Z - 250845Z
SUMMARY...Mix of freezing rain and sleet likely overnight into early
Sunday.
DISCUSSION...Freezing rain and occasional sleet has been ongoing
from the San Antonio Metro to College Station, TX. There are reports
of freezing rain accumulations around 0.05-0.10 of an inch in 3
hours. Guidance indicates that coverage of precipitation will
increase over the next several hours across south-central Texas into
western Louisiana as large scale ascent continues to increase.
Forecast RAP soundings depict a warm layer around 850 mb above more
shallow sub-freezing air near the surface supporting the primary
precipitation type to be freezing rain. HREF guidance indicates
increasing probabilities of at least 0.05 of an inch per 3 hr
freezing rainfall rates along and north of the I-10 corridor
overnight into early Sunday morning. Sleet will remain possible at
times in heavier bands, especially with further north extent into
the deeper cold air across northeastern Texas.
..Thornton.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 33029441 33029358 32499340 31919337 31389351 30919376
30329476 29769676 29709764 29579959 30230014 31389854
32759559 33029441
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