Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Convective potential will be virtually nil today. While isolated
lightning flashes were noted overnight east of Long Island and near
coastal southern New England, lightning-conducive thermodynamic
profiles, in the northwest quadrant of the deep offshore cyclone,
will continue to quickly diminish and shift away from the coast. In
the Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes occurred overnight in
coastal Washington, and a sliver of weak buoyancy was observed in
the 12z UIL/Quillayute, WA sounding. However, a trend toward
shortwave ridging and less-lightning-conducive thermodynamic
profiles should effectively end such thunderstorm potential.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/23/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough and associated deep surface low will
continue to progress further into the Atlantic, leading to upper
ridging over the Intermountain West and broad northwest flow across
the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and an accompanying
continental polar airmass will overspread much of the U.S. east of
the Rockies through the period, limiting thunderstorm potential.

..Squitieri.. 02/23/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

...Morning Update...
Elevated highlights have been expanded to cover the FL Panhandle,
Central Gulf Coast, and southeastern LA. Despite some areas
receiving recent wetting rainfall, multiple new starts yesterday
afternoon in Louisiana heighten concerns for spotty fuel
receptiveness. Given the entire Central Gulf Coast may see RH values
below 35% and sustained northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph, Elevated
fire weather conditions are expected. Parts of Southern Florida are
already experiencing Critical fire weather conditions this morning.
RH values are expected to drop to 25-35% and sustained northwesterly
surface winds increasing to 10-15 mph (locally higher gusts 20-30
mph) this afternoon. 

See the previous discussion for more information.

..Garcia/Thornton.. 02/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026/

...Synopsis...
...Florida...
A dry airmass will move down the peninsula today in the wake of a
cold front. Recent precipitation has mitigated some fuel
receptiveness, particularly in North/Central Florida. However, South
Florida has remained rather dry and fuels will be receptive to
ignitions/spread. Winds will generally be stronger in the morning,
before slowly weakening into the afternoon/evening. During the
afternoon, winds of 10-15 mph can be expected. Given persistent
surface winds down the peninsula, RH may be near Elevated criteria
even early this morning. RH values by afternoon will be 25-35% in
the north with around 20% in the south. Critical fire weather is
expected in South Florida with elevated to locally critical
elsewhere.

...Southern High Plains...
Winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are possible during the
afternoon. Lack of recent rainfall has continued to allow fuels to
dry. Elevated fire weather can be expected.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Dry offshore flow will continue today. Despite RH of 20-25% in some
areas, winds will generally be too light to promote more than
locally elevated concerns.

...Southeast Wyoming...
It is possible that locally elevated conditions will occur today as
winds increase due to a modest lee trough and increasing mid-level
winds. Mid/upper clouds will potentially keep temperatures cool and
RH higher. Fuel receptiveness is also uncertain given recent
precipitation.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...