Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern
Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon and
evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions
of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps
portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon and
evening.

...Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast...
Recent surface analysis places the primary cold front from the St.
Lawrence Valley west-southwestward through Lower MI, northern IL,
and southern IA. The front then shifts more southwestward through
central KS through the central OK and northwest TX Panhandles into
far northeast NM. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms extends
from southwest KS and the eastern TX/OK Panhandles through the Lower
MO Valley and into the middle OH Valley. Much of this activity
precedes the cold front and is supported by either modest low-level
warm-air advection and/or convergence along
southward/southeastward-progressing outflows. 

Strong heating is anticipated south of residual cloudiness and
lingering showers/thunderstorms, with temperatures well into the 90s
to around 100 F over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley,
and upper 80s to mid 90s from the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic. This
heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield
a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from
1000 J/kg across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity to 2000-2500 J/kg across
the southern Plains. This increased buoyancy coupled with
convergence along the synoptic front (and any existing outflow
boundaries) and modest large-scale ascent should result in
thunderstorm activity persisting throughout the afternoon and
evening. Some increase in intensity is possible too, particularly
from north-central TX in the Mid-South vicinity where buoyancy will
be highest. The presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary
layer will be supportive of sporadic damaging winds with isolated
severe gusts in these areas. Buoyancy will be more limited farther
east, but vertical shear will be stronger, and some more organized
bowing segments are possible. Damaging gusts will be the primary
severe risk over this region as well.

...Raton Mesa Vicinity...
Upslope flow of a moist boundary layer beneath mid-level lapse rates
of 7-8 C/km will yield moderate afternoon instability with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development is anticipated by mid afternoon along the high terrain
amidst a vertically veering wind profile with up to 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible in this
environment, with isolated hail as the primary hazard. Increasing
low-level stability away from the terrain should keep the threat
relatively confined and short lived.

..15_ows.. 09/10/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Nebraska to the
Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Nebraska/Iowa/eastern Dakotas/Minnesota/Wisconsin...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced
southwesterly flow will overspread the region, particularly from the
Dakotas into MN/WI. Cooling aloft will also support steepening
midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary layer in which
increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
northward across the region. A surface low is forecast to develop
and shift east across SD, with a surface cold front shifting
southeast through period. This front will be oriented from northeast
to southwest from northwest MN/eastern ND into central SD near the
surface low by mid to late afternoon. A dryline will extend
southward from the surface low over central SD through central NE.
Corridors of moderate instability are forecast along/ahead of the
front, and thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon/early evening across northern MN.

Vertically veering wind profiles will support initial supercell
storms capable of all hazards, including damaging wind, large hail,
and a couple of tornadoes. Some hail greater than 2 inch diameter is
possible if supercell mode can be maintained. Given strong linear
ascent along the surface boundary, and an increasing southwesterly
low-level jet during the evening, initial supercells are likely to
cluster and/or grow upscale into line of convection spreading
east/northeast through the nighttime hours. 

Convective coverage is a bit more uncertain, and overall severe
potential more conditional, with southward extent into eastern SD/IA
and central NE. Large-scale ascent will be weaker further south, and
this could be problematic for overcoming inhibition from warmer
850-700 mb temperatures, especially through early evening. As the
surface cold front overtakes the dryline in NE overnight, elevated
convection could develop within a low-level warm advection regime.
Whether storms develop during the early evening or overnight, some
severe risk from damaging gusts and hail will be possible.

..15_ows.. 09/10/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

The forecast remains on track for elevated fire weather conditions
across eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, and portions of the
northern Plains today. Poor overnight humidity recoveries occurred
across much of Wyoming and southern Montana, contributing to
widespread critical RH values as depicted by 15z surface
observations. Deep vertical mixing will allow sustained surface
winds to accelerate to 15-20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) this afternoon
amid receptive fuels, maintaining a broader fire weather threat.
Please see the previous discussion for details.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and attendant increasing westerly flow aloft
will push southward into the northwestern U.S. today. At the
surface, broad troughing across the Canadian Prairies will stretch 
towards the Northern Rockies, where an increasing surface pressure
gradient will bring stronger westerly winds to much of the
Northwest, northern Rockies and northern High Plains. Although the
elevated winds will span a large geographic area, fuels remain most
receptive across portions of the northern Rockies and northern High
Plains where Elevated Highlights remain.

...Eastern Idaho, southern Montana and portions of Wyoming...
Low-level winds will accelerate across much of the northwestern U.S.
and northern Plains in response to an expanding surface trough that
stretches from the Canadian Prairies region into the northern High
Plains/Northern Rockies. A dry air mass remains in place across much
of the Intermountain West where afternoon RH is likely to fall into
the 10-15% range in lower elevations this afternoon, following poor
recoveries in some locations this morning. Fire weather concerns
will be focused across eastern ID, portions of WY, southern MT and
far southwestern ND where fuels remain most receptive. The
overlapping west winds of 15-20 mph and low RH amid dry fuels will
support elevated fire weather conditions for several hours from late
morning through the afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...