WW 329 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 132220Z - 140500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
520 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest into Central Kansas
Northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Panhandle
The Northern Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Saturday afternoon from 520 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage and
intensity this evening along/ahead of a southward-moving cold front.
The strongest cores should be capable of producing large to very
large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and scattered
severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach 70-75 mph on an isolated
basis, especially if any bowing clusters can form.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest
of Dalhart TX to 45 miles north of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 327...WW 328...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Gleason
WW 328 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 132040Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southwest Iowa
North-Central Kansas
Extreme Northwest Missouri
Southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm are possible along a cold
front pushing southeastward across north-central Kansas and
southeast Nebraska. Large to isolated very large hail is the primary
severe hazard with these storms, although a few strong wind gusts
are possible as well, particularly over southeast Nebraska and
adjacent far southwest Iowa and extreme northwest Missouri.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 110 miles west
southwest of Beatrice NE to 25 miles northeast of Shenandoah IA. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 327...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Mosier
WW 327 TORNADO KS MO 131930Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 327
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central into Northeast Kansas
Far Northwest Missouri
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Discrete thunderstorm development appears possible along a
remnant outflow boundary that extends from northeast Kansas through
northwest Missouri. Moist and unstable conditions combined with
moderate deep-layer shear support the potential for supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and large to very
large hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Salina KS
to 20 miles southeast of Kansas City MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 29035.
...Mosier
WW 0329 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0329 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0328 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 328
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N RSL TO
15 WNW CNK TO 25 E SDA.
..HART..06/13/26
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 328
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC123-132340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MITCHELL
MOC003-005-087-147-132340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON HOLT
NODAWAY
NEC133-147-132340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PAWNEE RICHARDSON
WW 0327 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0327 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0326 Status Updates
MD 1128 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest
Missouri...northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 132229Z - 140030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated intense storms will be possible through early
evening. Coverage is uncertain, with increasing confidence of an
organized severe threat in a few hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar loops show an isolated supercell
has formed in northeast OK. This storm is in vicinity of a remnant
outflow boundary from active convection over northern AR. To the
southwest of the boundary, the air mass is very warm/moist and
extremely unstable with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and MLCAPE
values over 4000 J/kg. Vertical shear is not particularly strong,
with the INX VAD profile showing 25-35 kt winds through the mid
levels, but given the high instability and the proximity to the
outflow boundary, a few rotating updrafts will remain possible
through the early evening. These early cells will be capable of
locally damaging winds, large hail, and even perhaps a tornado.
However, coverage of this activity is uncertain.
By mid evening, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen which
may result in intensification. Also, convection over central KS
will approach from the northwest. For these reason, a watch will
likely eventually be needed for parts of the discussion area.
Trends will be monitored.
..Hart/Gleason.. 06/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 36059499 36489589 36969613 37259550 37049413 35889320
35429327 35699444 36059499
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight from
parts of the central and southern Plains to the Lower Missouri and
Middle Mississippi Valleys. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
...20z Update...
Only minor modifications were needed to the ongoing forecast based
on recent convective trends. The primary hazard continues to be
initially hail along the front with the onset of convection followed
by rapid upscale growth with an attendant severe wind threat across
eastern KS into adjacent portions of AR, MO, and OK. Given the
prevalence of outflow boundaries intersecting the front per recent
surface observations, there will likely be one or more mesoscale
corridors of higher tornado potential as one or more MCSs develop,
however, confidence is limited in how productive these corridors
will be give the expectation of upscale growth. For additional
short-term details see MCDs #1122, #1123, and #1124.
..Moore.. 06/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026/
...Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
Several different areas are already convectively active this
morning, including south-central IA/north-central MO where a bowing
segment is moving southeastward through the region, and farther
south from central/southern MO into far west-central IL, where
elevated thunderstorm are being maintained by modest warm-air
advection. Most immediate severe potential is downstream of the
bowing segment in south-central IA/north-central MO where damaging
wind gusts and isolated hail are possible over the next few hours.
Thereafter, expansive coverage of the ongoing storms in
central/southern MO introduces notable uncertainty regarding the
extent and strength of afternoon destabilization.
General expectation is for the ongoing showers and thunderstorms to
persist, aided by mesoscale ascent attendant to an MCV traversing
the region. Cloud cover will limit heating, but ample low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy. Moderate deep-layer
shear is anticipated over this area as well, with perhaps some more
mesoscale enhancement attendant to the MCV. As a result, a few
stronger embedded multicells and isolated supercells are possible.
Isolated large hail and damaging gusts could occur with the
strongest storms embedded within this likely broad area of showers
and thunderstorms.
A more complex scenario is anticipated along the western edge of the
MO cluster, extending back further westward into north-central KS.
Current surface analysis shows an outflow boundary over extreme
southeast NE arcing back through north-central KS to a low over far
northwest KS. A more substantial surface low exists over southwest
KS. Surface analysis also places a cold front from northwest IA
southwestward to just north of the northwest KS low in far southwest
NE. These boundaries should all influence convective evolution
today, with the outflow/differential heating boundary along the
western edge of the MO cluster likely playing a part as well.
Strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding
the surface lows will result in scattered thunderstorm development
near/ahead of the southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense
development likely favoring where the front intercepts the western
periphery of the outflow boundary. This intersection will most
likely be over central into northeast KS. Strong buoyancy and
moderate deep-layer shear will support robust updrafts capable of
large to very large hail early in the convective cycle, before
transitioning to a more linear mode as the front continues
southeastward.
Another area of afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated
from southern MO into west-central MO and far southeast KS, along
the western edge of the outflow/differential heating associated with
the ongoing MO cluster. Like the area farther northwest, large to
isolated very large hail is anticipated initially. Additionally,
this region could act as a corridor for upscale growth as the
development along the cold front begins to interact with the more
in-situ development along this boundary. Damaging winds will be the
most prominent risk within this corridor this evening, potentially
including some significant (75+ mph) wind gusts.
Despite numerous boundaries, the environmental conditions (i.e. high
LCLs and modest surface wind) and anticipated convective evolution
(i.e. outflow-dominant storms with quick evolution towards a linear
mode) only suggest a low-probability tornado threat from discrete
storms. A somewhat higher tornado risk could materialize within any
more robust convective line that develops, particularly during
evening as the low-level jet increases.
...Lower MI...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front
moving through the region today. Strong low to mid-level flow could
support a few more organized storms, beginning across northern Lower
MI now and then extending back southwestward with time this
afternoon/evening. Primary risks are isolated large hail and
damaging gusts, but a brief tornado is possible as well.
...Carolinas/Coastal Southeast...
Ample heating within a moist environment south of a weak front will
result in moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective
development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some
pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage
may occur this afternoon through around sunset.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
CORRECTED FOR CAPITALIZATION OF PANHANDLE
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some
severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest.
... Synopsis ...
Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern half of
the US on Monday, downstream of a broad mid-level ridge across the
eastern Pacific. A short-wave trough will dive southeast into the
north-central US, embedded within the larger-scale northwest flow.
At the surface, a remnant front will be draped across the northern
Gulf Coast states, stretching from the southern Rockies east to the
Atlantic. Farther north, a second cold front associated with the
aforementioned north-central short-wave trough will push southeast
into the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
... Southern Rockies into the Texas Panhandle ...
Weak low-level upslope beneath northwesterly mid-level flow will
support isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across the
higher terrain of the southern Rockies. CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
and effective-layer shear around 30 knots will support some
potential for thunderstorms organizing into a southeast-moving MCS
capable of producing isolated damaging winds.
... Northern Gulf Coast States ...
Rich boundary layer moisture will be present south of the
sagging/stationary frontal boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass
should support thunderstorm development. This area will be well
south of the better mid-level flow thus organized severe potential
should remain fairly limited. That said, high precipitable water
values and the number of storms across the region may support an
isolated damaging wind gust. Overall coverage looks to remain less
than 5%.
... Northern/Central Plains ...
Although low-level moisture will be quite scant across the area,
strong mid-upper-level forcing associated with the vorticity maximum
moving across the area along with steepening lapse rates may support
isolated high-based thunderstorm development. Gusty winds would be
possible with any intense updraft, although this should remain
fairly isolated and at this time does not warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 06/13/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
Slight adjustments were made to the Dry Thunderstorm risk area based
on updated forecast guidance. Further spatial modifications remain
likely in the upcoming outlook cycle depending on how much
precipitation occurs over the forecast region on Day 1/Saturday. Any
new/ongoing wildfires (such as the Bear Fire in western NM) may be
impacted by erratic wind gusts of up to 35 mph.
Across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin and the Michigan Upper
Peninsula, sustained northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph will combine
with 25-35% RH for a few afternoon hours on Day 2/Sunday. Recent
rainfall, sparse fuels, and limited duration of fire weather
conditions currently preclude the introduction of broader Elevated
highlights. However, localized fire concerns may emerge where
pockets of dry fuels exist.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are forecast from the Four Corners into
the Great Basin Sunday afternoon on the periphery of a mid-level
ridge centered over Mexico. Precipitable water content of 0.5-0.75
inches combined with deep inverted-V boundary layer profiles and
LCL-EL mean wind speeds exceeding 20 kts will result in low
downdraft precipitation efficiency. Combined with critically
receptive fuels and minimal prior-day precipitation, lightning-based
ignitions will pose a concern.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will persist across the northeastern
CONUS through late next week as an upper low remains anchored over
the southern Ontario/Quebec regions. An upper-level ridge will
flatten over the Pacific Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday, eventually
breaking down and shifting eastward over the central CONUS as a
trough moves onshore the West Coast by Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday.
Consequently, dry and breezy conditions with above normal
temperatures (and resultant dry fuels) will support expansive fire
concerns through the remainder of the forecast period. While timing
differences in various NWP guidance currently precludes the
introduction of critical probabilities past Day 5/Wednesday,
highlights may be needed across the Interior West and High Plains in
future outlook cycles as details become better resolved.
...Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday - Parts of the Intermountain West...
Several days of well above normal surface temperatures will occur
under the upper ridge through early next week, with record high
temperatures forecast to be met or exceeded in portions of the
Pacific Northwest. This anomalous, but short-lived, heat wave is
expected to further dry dead fuels over much of the western CONUS -
significantly so over the Pacific Northwest.
As the ridge dampens and begins to slide eastward, robust
northwesterly flow aloft should foster breezy surface winds amid
pre-existing warm and dry conditions. Thus, 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to eastern Washington and
southeastern Oregon on Day 4/Tuesday where confidence has increased
in fire weather conditions overlapping a vast region of cured
grasses. As robust northwesterly flow aloft overspreads the central
Rockies and a dry cold front traverses the central Plains,
heightened fire concerns should reemerge as ERCs approach the
90-95th percentile. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained
across the region on Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday, though
spatial extent may be adjusted in future outlooks with updated
guidance and fuel progression.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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