Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the
CONUS, with south-central U.S. upper ridging flanked by an evolving
upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard and an amplifying upper
trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...Southern Arizona/southern New Mexico to southern High Plains...
A belt of moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow will
prevail regionally, with a mid-level disturbance expected to spread
northeastward from northern Baja toward Arizona, with multiple other
convectively influenced perturbations spreading across New Mexico
and the southern High Plains. Pockets of moderate destabilization
could occur into peak heating across southeast Arizona/southern New
Mexico, as well as the southern High Plains including parts of the
Texas Panhandle and western portions of Oklahoma and Kansas. A few
stronger/locally severe storms with hail and/or gusty winds could
occur late this afternoon and early evening in these areas, but the
overall magnitude/likelihood of severe storms is currently expected
to remain relatively low.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/24/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow Friday.

...Synopsis...
A nearly stacked, intense low will meander off of the
Mid-Atlantic/New England coast while upper ridging in the Plains
flattens and an upper trough overspreads the Pacific Northwest
tomorrow (Friday). An embedded mid-level impulse will eject into the
central Plains, where surface lee troughing and accompanying
low-level moisture return will take place. MLCAPE may exceed 1000
J/kg in spots given mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints. However,
widespread clouds and showers, with widely scattered thunderstorms
should be present across the Plains through the period, so surface
heating will be limited, with poor tropospheric lapse rates
expected. As such, the aforementioned buoyancy will be constrained
to thin CAPE profiles, amid relatively poor vertical wind shear on a
widespread basis. While an instance of severe wind/hail cannot be
ruled out over the southern High Plains, the severe threat appears
too limited or localized for the confident delineation of severe
probabilities this far in advance.

..Squitieri.. 09/24/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and wind may accompany a few thunderstorms
across portions of the southern Plains on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A 500 mb cutoff low will meander off of the East Coast while
relatively zonal flow prevails over the central U.S. and an upper
trough impinges on the West Coast on Saturday. Surface lee troughing
and continued southerly moisture advection will continue across the
Plains states given persistent upper troughing to the west. Medium
range guidance consensus depicts thunderstorm development, spurred
by low-level warm-air advection and the approach of a subtle
mid-level impulse across portions of the southern Plains. 7 C/km
mid-level lapse rates atop low 60s F surface dewpoints will
contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, appreciable
veering with height will yield over 30 kts of effective bulk shear
via modestly curved and elongated hodographs. Multicells and
supercells may develop, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail
threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/24/2026