WW 187 TORNADO AL 061940Z - 070400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Alabama
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop and
intensify through the afternoon and persist through the evening.
The stronger storms will become supercellular and pose a risk for
tornadoes (a couple being potentially strong), large hail, and
damaging wind gusts. The tornado risk will seemingly be greatest
during the late afternoon and continue into the evening coincident
with stronger low-level wind shear that is forecast to develop.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of Gadsden AL to 30
miles southwest of Evergreen AL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 186...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.
...Smith
WW 186 TORNADO LA MS TX 061910Z - 070400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central into Southeast Louisiana
Central and Southern Mississippi
Far East Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this
afternoon with an accompanying severe risk and continue through the
evening. A threat for tornadoes will likewise develop this
afternoon and persist into the evening and be most strongly
associated with the stronger supercells. A strong tornado risk will
probably develop late this afternoon into the evening as low-level
wind shear increases. Large to very large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in
diameter) and damaging gusts are also possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles east southeast of Meridian
MS to 50 miles west of Fort Polk LA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.
...Smith
WW 0187 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0187 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/06/26
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX...MOB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-037-039-041-043-059-065-069-077-079-
085-091-097-105-107-115-117-125-127-062140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN
GRANT LA SALLE MADISON
NATCHITOCHES POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES
SABINE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS VERNON
WASHINGTON WEST FELICIANA WINN
MSC001-005-007-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-041-049-061-063-
065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085-087-089-091-099-101-103-105-109-
111-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-153-157-159-163-062140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE ATTALA
CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLARKE
CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON
MD 0654 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 186...187... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Areas affected...parts of central and southern Mississippi and
adjacent portions of Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 186...187...
Valid 062014Z - 062215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 186, 187 continues.
SUMMARY...Evolving supercells accompanied by increasing potential
for a strong tornado or two through 5-7 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Substantive intensification of initially widely
scattered discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing as a
seasonably moist boundary layer approaches peak afternoon
destabilization (including mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg)
and inhibition continues to erode from below, as depicted in
soundings from Jackson MS. As subtle mid-level height falls
overspread the region during the next few hours, further suppression
of inhibition appears probable, which may result in increasing
number of intensifying storms.
Latest Rapid Refresh continues to indicate notable intensification
of west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer (to 40-50+ kt)
across east central Louisiana through south central Mississippi
between now and 23-00Z. As this occurs, associated strengthening of
deep-layer shear may promote increasing tornadic potential in
evolving supercells. Even with only some further enlargement of
modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, high surface dew
points now in the mid 70s are enhancing near-surface buoyancy and
potential upward accelerations, which may contribute to the risk for
a strong tornado or two.
..Kerr.. 05/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 32269094 32408966 32528844 31828798 30628864 30878990
30929163 31369193 32269094
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from central Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late
evening/overnight.
...TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow
extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the
southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded
shortwaves. Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front
slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS
and into the southern Appalachians. South of the boundary, a
quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is
expected through tonight. A moist airmass maintained by southerly
flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to
lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front. Despite extensive cloud
cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and
Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm
advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield
scattered storms developing later this afternoon. Moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support
strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over
LA/MS. Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment
will likely result in several strong supercells eventually
developing late this afternoon through the evening. Large to very
large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the
stronger storms. The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this
afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow
strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support
the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe. Whether
or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will
largely be a function of storm mode. Storms should eventually begin
to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind
threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia.
The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate
SC late tonight.
..Smith/Thompson.. 05/06/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central/southern Mississippi and
central Alabama before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk
into the late evening/overnight.
...20z Update...
The primary forecast update was a reduction in severe probabilities
across portions of central/eastern TX and across the Mid-South in
the wake of the surface cold front. Latest regional radar mosaic
shows the early stages of deepening convection across far eastern TX
into central LA as low-level moisture continues to deepen (per 18z
RAOBs). This activity is expected to gradually intensify through
late afternoon amid filtered diurnal heating that should continue to
erode lingering MLCIN. Strong deep-layer wind shear (sampled in
regional VWPs and 18 UTC RAOBs) should maintain the severe threat
through the evening hours. Confidence severe thunderstorms remains
highest across southern MS where convection originating in central
LA will likely track and intensify within a favorable environment
(where STP values will increase to 2-3 by late afternoon) prior to
undercutting by the cold front later this evening.
..Moore.. 05/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/
...TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow
extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the
southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded
shortwaves. Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front
slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS
and into the southern Appalachians. South of the boundary, a
quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is
expected through tonight. A moist airmass maintained by southerly
flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to
lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front. Despite extensive cloud
cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and
Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm
advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield
scattered storms developing later this afternoon. Moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support
strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over
LA/MS. Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment
will likely result in several strong supercells eventually
developing late this afternoon through the evening. Large to very
large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the
stronger storms. The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this
afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow
strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support
the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe. Whether
or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will
largely be a function of storm mode. Storms should eventually begin
to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind
threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia.
The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate
SC late tonight.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND IN TEXAS NEAR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina. Isolated
large hail is possible over a small part of Texas near the middle
Rio Grand Valley.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on
Thursday, with leading speed max aloft sweeping across the TN Valley
and toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push
south across the Carolinas, with western portions of the front
stalling near the central Gulf Coast.
To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will persist from northern
Mexico into TX as an upper low drifts east, with high pressure at
the surface but elevated instability in place.
...Southeast...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the cold front
Thursday morning, from southeast LA across GA and into the
Carolinas. A few storms could still be severe from southeast AL into
central GA as the previous nights activity persists. Strong wind
gusts or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out at that time as
SRH will be maximized above 200 m2/s2. Given the veering low-level
winds with time and associated midlevel drying/subsidence later in
the day, the severe risk may diminish by afternoon.
...Middle Rio Grande Vicinity...
While lift will be weak, it appears enough lift via warm advection
above the stable surface layer may support isolated storm
development early on Thursday. Winds around 850 mb will be out of
the southeast at 10-15 kt, with indications by some models of hail
potential. Uncertainty exists regarding degree of elevated
instability, but effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer
conditionally favor hail.
..Jewell.. 05/06/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma
into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
A northwest flow regime will exist from the Plains into the MS
Valley on Friday as an embedded shortwave moves across the central
Plains and rapidly moves toward the TN Valley into Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, a compact upper low is forecast to move across the Rio
Grande Valley and into TX, providing cool temperatures aloft.
At the surface, a cold front will move into MO/KS and OK, which will
be situated below the cool temperature aloft. Heating/steep lapse
rates near this boundary as well as southerly winds bringing 50s and
60s F dewpoints northward will support scattered strong to severe
storms along this portion of the front. The long hodographs and
northwest flow regime suggest cells capable of hail are most likely.
To the south, bouts of thunderstorms will develop from TX eastward
toward the lower MS Valley. First, early in the day within the
moisture return/warm advection regime, then later in the day as the
upper low approaches from the west. There is a heavy convective
signal from late afternoon into the overnight across much of TX,
however, shear will be weak across most areas. At least low severe
probabilities may be added in later outlooks as predictability
increases and more targeted areas can be discerned.
..Jewell.. 05/06/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Morning Update...
The forecast remains on track. Recent surface analysis placed a cold
front from south-central CO through far eastern NM into the TX Hill
Country. Marginal overnight humidity recoveries occurred for
southeastern NM, however, West Texas did not experience good
recoveries. Current surface observations depict RH values of 20-30
percent across the region, gradually decreasing under clearing skies
and afternoon heating. While ERCs have declined due to recent
appreciable rainfall, localized fire weather concerns may emerge
where dry and breezy conditions align with sporadic dry fuels. See
the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level split flow consolidates into a broader southwesterly 70-80
knot jet over the Ozarks into the OH River Valley today ahead of an
elongated upper trough stretching from the Upper Midwest to the
Desert Southwest. At the surface, an advancing cold front extends
southwestward from the Northeast into the Southern Plains. A
deepening lee surface trough across eastern NM will promote dry,
downslope westerly winds across portions of the southern NM and west
TX under reinforcing southwesterly flow aloft.
...Southern New Mexico into West Texas...
Southwesterly flow aloft and low-level westerly winds (south of an
evolving lee surface low) will affect much of southern NM and West
TX today. Enhanced downslope drying yielding minimum RH of 10-15%
along with west winds of 15-25 mph are expected during peak boundary
layer mixing today. However, marginal fuels will inhibit overall
wildfire spread potential due to recent rainfall, although pockets
of dry fuels could support localized elevated fire weather concerns
particularly across the Cap Rock area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion
for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and associated mid-level speed max will shift
into eastern CONUS Thursday. A cold front and attendant band of
showers and thunderstorms will overspread much of the Southeast and
Piedmont regions. Increasing westerly low-level flow south of the
frontal boundary will bring fire weather concerns to portions of
eastern FL Thursday. A building upper ridge across the western U.S.
will promote warming temperatures and dry conditions for the region.
...Florida Peninsula...
Enhanced westerly surface winds of 10-15 mph are expected across the
FL Peninsula as a cold front approaches the FL/GA border Thursday.
Inland temperatures in the low to mid 90s F will evolve within a
dry, well mixed boundary layer by early Thursday afternoon. The warm
temperatures, increasing westerly flow amid relative humidity in the
25-35% range and drying fuels, will support an elevated fire weather
concern for portions of the eastern FL Peninsula where Elevated
Highlights have been introduced.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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