Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...AND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys into the Central Gulf Coast states, and over
parts of central and eastern New Mexico Saturday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level trough initially from the Great Lakes into the Ozark
Plateau Saturday morning is forecast to amplify over the lower OH
and the lower MS Valleys through Saturday night. In the low levels,
an area of low pressure is expected to develop from west-central IL
to the vicinity of the IN/KY border by 12Z Sunday. Meanwhile, a
trailing cold front will advance into the lower MS and the TN
Valleys.


...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central Gulf Coast states...

A fairly widespread area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
be ongoing at 12Z Saturday across portions of the lower OH, TN, and
lower MS Valleys. A subset of that convection is likely to persist
into afternoon within the pre-frontal warm sector, aided by height
falls aloft, warm advection, and moisture transport along a 25-35 kt
low-level jet (LLJ). On the western flank of the more persistent
storms, cloud breaks may allow for stronger heating of a moist
boundary layer, yielding a potentially narrow axis of moderate
instability by afternoon ahead of the cold front. 

Diurnally enhanced storms appear likely within the corridor of
greater air mass destabilization, generally from central KY and
middle TN into MS, AL, and potentially western GA. While the
strongest deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of
the warm sector, mainly north of the OH River, an area of stronger
low-level shear may persist across portions of KY and TN, coincident
with the southern extension of the LLJ. Locally damaging wind gusts
appear to be the primary hazard with the most intense storms;
however, some tornado threat could materialize from portions of IN
and OH into middle TN within the zone of stronger low-level shear.


...Central and eastern New Mexico...

There is some model signal for a weak mid-level disturbance to
progress south within the eastern periphery of the upper high on
Saturday. The glancing influence of that feature will combine with
the upslope flow of a moist and moderately unstable air mass to
generate afternoon thunderstorms along the favored terrain. While
vertical shear is not expected to be particularly strong, the
presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates may support a few severe
storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.

..Mead.. 07/30/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4 and 5/Sunday and Monday...

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong
short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing
along the international border from the northern Rockies into the
northern Plains. Meanwhile, an associated cold front is forecast to
move into the northern High Plains on Sunday and the upper MS Valley
into northern Plains on Monday. Low-level ridging from the Great
Lakes into Ozark Plateau may disrupt the advection of a maritime
tropical air mass ahead of the front. However, evapotranspiration
will contribute to pockets of higher moisture content, which,
combined with the eastern extension of an EML plume, will contribute
to moderate instability ahead of a surface cold front both
afternoons.

On Sunday, the strongest forcing for ascent associated with a lead 
vorticity lobe is expected to remain across SK and MB with capping
to the south of that feature potentially limiting storm coverage
along the front in ND. On the condition that storms develop, the
presence of moderate instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear
would support storm organization and at least an isolated severe
weather threat. Additional severe storms appear possible from the
Mid-Atlantic into Southeast ahead of a short-wave trough moving
through the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Gulf Coast states.  

On Monday, a secondary disturbance and associated jet streak are
forecast to move into the northern Plains, supporting a potentially
greater severe weather threat from the northern Plains into the
upper MS Valley. 


...Days 6 through 8/Tuesday through Thursday...

The 00Z deterministic and ensemble mean solutions indicate
low-amplitude troughing across the north-central states on Tuesday
with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern
Rockies into the upper Great Lakes. A few severe storms appear
possible over the central High Plains where the southern periphery
of the stronger mid-level flow is juxtaposed with a moist and
unstable upslope regime. 

By Wednesday and Thursday, the ensemble mean solutions indicate a
modestly enhanced belt of quasi-zonal flow across the northern tier
of the CONUS. However, there is considerable spread across the
deterministic models with the location and track of disturbances
embedded within that air stream. As such, confidence in the location
and extent of any severe weather threat is low.