No watches are valid as of Fri May 29 19:33:02 UTC 2026.MD 0892 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
Mesoscale Discussion 0892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Areas affected...Portions of the northern Rockies
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291930Z - 292130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce isolated large hail and
severe winds this afternoon into the early evening. A watch is not
currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Convection continues to increase within the higher
terrain of western Montana. A few thunderstorms have also developed
within the last hour. A belt of southerly upper level winds is
promoting around 30 kt of effective shear per the KMSX VAD.
Temperatures may remain a bit on the cool side, especially now that
anvil clouds are spreading north. Some locations of northwest
Montana may be able to warm further by late afternoon. Overall, 1000
to perhaps near 1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected. Given the low 50s
F dewpoints within the higher terrain, scattered storms are
probable. This may lead to numerous storm interactions since the
deep-layer shear is somewhat marginal. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail and severe wind gusts this afternoon/early
evening.
..Wendt/Hart.. 05/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...
LAT...LON 45501444 46391518 47931512 48631412 48881366 49061327
49001286 48651253 46441193 46031223 45501444
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0891 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains/Permian Basin vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 291929Z - 292130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms may develop by 4-5 PM CDT, with a threat of
hail and severe gusts. Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating is underway across parts of
west TX this afternoon, though some areas of mid/upper-level clouds
persist. Low-level south/southeasterly flow to the east of a weak
surface trough is maintaining sufficient low-level moisture for
moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1500
J/kg across parts of the TX South Plains and Permian Basin.
Decreasing CINH and a subtle midlevel shortwave trough near the
TX/NM border will support scattered thunderstorm development by late
afternoon. An approaching mid/upper-level subtropical jet maximum
will lead to strengthening deep-layer shear (with effective shear of
40+ kt), and a few organized cells or clusters may evolve with time.
Isolated large hail will be possible, including conditional
potential for 2+ inch diameter hail if any sustained supercells
develop. Relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates will
encourage increasing outflow with time, with an attendant threat of
at least isolated severe gusts (potentially 75+ mph). Issuance of
one or more watches is possible later this afternoon in order to
address these threats.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 31070288 33830259 34450152 35080070 35030044 34910009
34260022 33080065 30990130 30340181 30390256 30590282
31070288
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas/Oklahoma. More isolated severe
thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central High Plains,
southern Utah, and the northern Rockies.
...Southern Plains...
Southwesterly flow aloft is present today over AZ/NM, with large
scale height falls and weak ascent overspreading west TX/OK.
Low-level southeasterly flow in this region is maintaining a moist
and potentially moderately unstable air mass, with breaks in the
clouds leading to pockets of CAPE over 2000 J/kg. By late
afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop from the Davis
mountains northward into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings in
this area show a deeply mixed boundary-layer suggestive of a
damaging wind and large hail potential. These storms will congeal
and move eastward into western OK during the evening, spreading into
greater low-level moisture and CAPE profiles. The risk of hail may
increase as this happens.
...Northeast CO/Northwest KS...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
Palmer Ridge to the east of Denver, and over the plains of southeast
CO. These storms will track northeastward through the early
evening, with some increase in low-level shear expected. This may
result in a supercell or two capable of large hail, damaging winds,
or perhaps a tornado.
...MT...
A consensus of 12z model guidance continues to show that scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will form over the terrain of western and
central MT. This activity will spread northward toward the Canadian
border, through a region of 1000 J/kg CAPE and a deeply mixed
boundary-layer. This would support a risk of isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps hail in the strongest storms.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/29/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern
and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also
be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the
central Plains into the southern High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will rotate from the Rockies into the
central Plains on Saturday as a lee surface cyclone develops across
western Kansas. A dryline will mix eastward across southwest Kansas
into the Texas Panhandle.
...Western Nebraska into southwest South Dakota...
A dryline will bend northwestward from central Kansas into the
Nebraska Panhandle on Saturday afternoon. As the mid-level trough
overspreads the region, inhibition will erode and storms are
expected to develop by mid-afternoon. Most guidance shows some
mixing of the shallow moisture across the region during the
afternoon. This casts some uncertainty on storm coverage across far
southern Nebraska and into northern Kansas. However, farther
northwest, where mid-level forcing will be stronger, storms are
anticipated across the Nebraska Panhandle into southwest South
Dakota. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat from this activity. It is worth noting, that some guidance
which is a bit more progressive with northwestward moisture
transport would be more supportive for a tornado threat across the
region. However, this appears to be a more outlier solution rather
than a likely solution. Therefore, the 2% tornado probabilities seem
appropriate.
...Kansas to West Texas...
Isolated storm development is possible along the dryline from West
Texas to central Kansas Saturday afternoon. Upper level forcing will
be focused farther north and convergence will be weak along the
dryline from the Kansas/Oklahoma border southward. In addition,
shallow moisture is forecast to mix out ahead of the dryline.
However, despite these mitigating factors, strong surface heating is
expected which would result in a mostly uncapped airmass along the
length of the dryline. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow is expected
to remain across the region which could result in a supercell or
two.
A more concentrated zone of storms may exist from southern Kansas
into central Kansas, closer to the upper-level forcing, where
convergence along the dryline is also greater. However, within this
zone, shear may be marginal (20 to 25 knots) within a relatively
weak area of mid-level flow. Therefore, higher probabilities have
not been added.
...Western Missouri...
Within a zone of weak isentropic ascent Saturday night and early
Sunday morning, strong to isolated severe storms may develop from
far eastern Kansas into western Missouri. A few storms may be
capable of large hail.
..Bentley.. 05/29/2026
|
