Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this afternoon and
evening.

...IA to Lower MI...
Fast zonal flow is present across the northern tier of states today,
with minor perturbations embedded within the flow field affecting
the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region.  A combination of
daytime heating, low-level warm/moist advection, and increasing
low-level convergence along a surface baroclinic zone will result in
scattered thunderstorms after dark over IA.  These storms will form
in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear.  MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg will promote
strong updrafts with a few supercells possible.  Large hail appears
to be the main threat with these storms as they progress eastward
into northern IL/southern WI and slowly weaken with diurnal cooling.


Storms will persist through the night and spread across much of
lower MI.  Despite weak instability, a few CAM solutions maintain
vigorous updrafts, supporting a low risk of hail and gusty winds
overnight.

...TX Panhandle...
Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s will yield a moderately
unstable air mass along the dryline over the TX Panhandle this
evening.  Most CAM guidance show isolated thunderstorm development
in this region - mainly in the 23-03z period.  Forecast soundings
suggest the low/mid troposphere is dry and will limit the number of
updrafts that can survive.  However, any storm that can persist will
pose a risk of gusty winds or hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 03/30/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into
the evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest.
Damaging gusts and severe hail are the main concerns. Isolated
severe storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the
southern Plains.

...Midwest and Great Lakes Region...
Embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a low-amplitude
midlevel wave and accompanying 80-90-kt speed max will advance
eastward from the northern Plains/Manitoba across Ontario and Quebec
through the period. In the low-levels, an east/west-oriented
quasi-stationary warm front will extend from New England westward to
a weak low over lower MI, with a cold front trailing
west-southwestward from the low into the central Plains. In response
to the migratory wave, the surface low will move eastward along the
frontal zone during the day, before the trailing cold front
overspreads the region during the evening/overnight hours. 

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the frontal
zone on Tuesday morning, and it is unclear if/when this early-day
activity will diminish, given persistent low-level warm advection
amid deep moisture. Nevertheless, current expectations are that
these storms and/or additional storms will intensify while
spreading/developing east-southeastward across the lower Great Lakes
into the Northeast during the afternoon. Here, upper 50s to lower
60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates/EML will contribute
to at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy along/south of
the frontal zone. This buoyancy, coupled with 40-50 kt of effective
shear, will favor organized clusters and the potential for a few
semi-discrete supercells initially -- capable of producing scattered
damaging wind gusts and some large hail. Given clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs, a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out either,
though this remains more conditional. With time, upscale growth into
several lines/clusters will promote a continued risk of damaging
winds and some embedded tornado risk as storms spread
east-southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Depending on
boundary-layer recovery, a greater severe risk may materialize from
parts of lower MI into far southwest NY and northwest PA.

...Southern Plains...
Strong diurnal heating amid steep deep-layer lapse rates along a
north/south-oriented dryline should promote isolated thunderstorm
development by late afternoon into the evening. Antecedent dry air
and weak forcing for ascent cast uncertainty on storm coverage.
However, any storms that do form will be capable of producing
isolated large hail and locally severe gusts -- given moderate
surface-based buoyancy and around 20-30 kt of effective shear.

..Weinman.. 03/30/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 301700Z - 311200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...

...Morning Update...
Fire weather concerns remain on track for a large portion of the
central and southern High Plains and Four Corners region. Elevated
highlights have been slightly expanded northward into the Big Horn
Basin to account for westerly downslope winds of 20-30 mph
(localized 40+ mph gusts) and RH dropping to less than 20 percent
atop a dry fuelscape. However, duration of the strongest winds is
expected to be limited. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected across central and eastern WY where record high
temperatures, sustained surface westerly winds of 25-30 mph, and RH
less than 15 percent amid poor overnight humidity recovery. 

There is potential in the central to southeastern TX Panhandle for
mixed wet/dry thunderstorms to form along the dryline this
afternoon. A resurgence of moisture as the dryline retreats should
increase surface RH, limiting impacts to wildfire spread from
potential ignitions. This precludes the introduction of an Isolated
Dry Thunderstorm area.

Please see the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 03/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist over the CONUS today, with an embedded
mid-level impulse poised to traverse the Rockies, supporting surface
low development over the Plains. Gradient/downslope flow will
encourage widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid
15-20 percent RH over the Four Corners region, and across the
central and southern High Plains. Elevated highlights have been
maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Critical highlights also
remain in place over central and eastern Wyoming, where surface
winds could sustain over 25 mph for at least a few hours this
afternoon.

Isolated high-based thunderstorms are also possible across portions
of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico in association with the
passage of a mid-level impulse. Given the expectation of a deep and
dry boundary layer, lightning over drying fuels with little to no
rainfall accumulation may occur, warranting isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...