WW 539 SEVERE TSTM CO KS OK TX 070200Z - 070900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 539
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
900 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Colorado
Far Southwest Kansas
Oklahoma Panhandle
Northern Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 900 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed across far southeast Colorado
over the past hour. Expectation is for these storms grow upscale,
with the resulting line of storms progressing southeastward through
the OK and TX Panhandles. Damaging gusts are possible within this
line, including isolated instances of 75+ mph. Isolated large hail
is also possible. Additional, more cellular development is possible
across southwest KS, with damaging gusts and isolated large hail
possible as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest
of Liberal KS to 40 miles south of Guymon OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Mosier
WW 0539 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0539 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 1844 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1844
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Areas affected...far southeast Colorado...southwest
Kansas...northwest Oklahoma...and portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 070048Z - 070245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop this evening with some potential for strong winds and hail.
The isolated nature of this threat should preclude the need for a
watch. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this evening,
perhaps posing a renewed threat for damaging winds.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are initiating across far southeast
Colorado and portions of southwest Kansas this evening. These storms
are developing within a hot airmass across portions of the Southern
Plains, where surface temperatures are still around 100F. The
eastern-most storm (across Clark and Meade counties in southwest
Kansas) appears to have developed on a subtle
wind-shift/differential heating boundary between the hot airmass to
the west and a residual cold pool from earlier convection to the
east.
High-resolution guidance suggests that initiation/additional
development will continue across southwest Kansas and southeast
Colorado over the next couple of hours. MUCAPE values are quite
large, with many areas in excess of 2000 J/kg. Effective-layer shear
is around 40 knots, which would support at least some potential for
at least transient supercell structures.
Given the high-based nature of these thunderstorms (LCLs near 3
kilometers) and the dry sub-cloud layer, thunderstorm cold pools may
eventually congeal into a coherent southward moving density current,
leading to a compact, southward moving MCS during the late evening
and overnight hours.
Trends will be monitored for potential watch needs, but the
relatively isolated nature of these initial thunderstorms should
preclude the need for a watch. However, depending on the resulting
strength of any congealed cold pool, a more coherent damaging wind
threat may develop. This potential also will be monitored.
..Marsh/Mosier.. 08/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36810301 37280314 37550170 37720045 37659907 37109813
36489818 36149902 36130072 36520262 36810301
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the
southern Plains into the Ozarks this evening and overnight. More
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast this evening.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
Clusters of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
emerge across southern Plains and portions of the Ozarks this
evening and into the overnight hours. Recent radar mosaics and
surface observations show the gradual decay of a cluster across
southwest MO as the attendant cold pool continues to expand and
undercut convection. Some lingering hail, and perhaps damaging wind,
threat will persist with this activity through roughly 03-05 UTC
given the proximity to ample buoyancy and modest deep-layer wind
shear on the south/southwest flank of the cold pool.
Further west, thunderstorm development is ongoing across southwest
KS and southeast CO along zones of low-level confluence. Additional
thunderstorm development is anticipated through late evening as
convection continues to cluster and grow upscale in tandem with an
increase in the nocturnal jet. The past several runs of the HRRR and
RRFS both depict the emergence of a loosely organized MCS across
this region with the potential for significant wind gusts. Given the
trends in both satellite/radar and model guidance, confidence is
sufficiently high to introduce focused 15% wind probabilities.
Additional thunderstorm development is expected across the greater
Emporia, KS area later this evening on the eastern periphery of the
nocturnal jet and along the western edge of the MO cold pool. Steep
lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support organized
convection that will likely pose a threat for large hail, and
perhaps sporadic downburst winds. A secondary corridor of higher
severe potential may emerge across eastern KS overnight, but the
expectation for clustered storm modes should act to modulate storm
longevity/intensity and precludes higher probabilities.
...Eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota...
Convection developing along a pre-frontal trough in southeast ND and
northern MN has exhibited periods of strong VII and cold cloud-top
temperatures indicative of severe convection. This activity has
mainly been focused within a corridor of low to mid 60s dewpoints
where effective bulk shear is around 35-40 knots and MLCAPE is
likely between 1500-2500 J/kg, based on a combination of RAP
mesoanalyses and by modifying the 00 UTC ABR RAOB. Latest guidance
has hinted that additional convection is possible overnight as a
cloud front pushes east and impinges on this narrow, but unstable,
warm sector.
...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
Isolated clusters of strong thunderstorms remain across the region
as of 01 UTC. However, most convection has exhibited signs of
gradual weakening over the past two hours. Although some localized
damaging wind threat may linger for the next hour or so, continued
nocturnal stabilization should further limit thunderstorm coverage
and intensity and warrants a removal of risk probabilities.
...Western Nebraska/South Dakota...
A few attempts at sustained convection have been noted over the past
few hours across western SD along a weak surface trough. With the
passage of the upper trough axis and the onset of nocturnal cooling
expected over the next few hours, the potential for thunderstorm
development appears very limited.
..Moore.. 08/07/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level short wave intrudes into the Pacific Northwest on Day
3/Saturday and moves into the northern High Plains by Day 4/Sunday
within a deamplifying upper ridge. This will leave a zonal flow
pattern in place across the northern CONUS for early next week with
lingering fire weather concerns over portions of the Intermountain
West. A dry thunderstorm threat will likely persist across portions
of the Great Basin and Utah on Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday on the
northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture across the Desert
Southwest.
...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Northern Intermountain West and
adjacent northern High Plains...
A mid-level short wave should round the flattening upper ridge over
the West, affecting the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Saturday and
Northern Rockies on Day 4/Sunday. Breezy west winds up to 15 mph
(locally 20 mph) and low relative humidity will combine with
increasingly receptive fuels across the broader northwestern U.S.
40% critical probabilities were largely maintained for this broad
region. Fire weather threat shifts southward mainly into
northeastern CA/northern Great Basin eastward into WY for Day
4/Sunday as a cold front brings slightly cooler conditions and
lighter winds to the northern CONUS.
...Southern Sierra, central Nevada and portions of Utah...
High based convection is likely to evolve Day 3/Saturday on the
northern periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture slowly advecting
northward into the Great Basin. PWATs ranging of 0.60-0.80" and
daytime instability will likely lead to isolated high-based
thunderstorms across portions of the southern Sierra Nevada,
south-central NV and southwestern UT. This threat will extend
eastward into northeastern UT on Day 4/Sunday, where 10% isolated
dry thunderstorm coverage was extended.
...Day 5-8...
Lingering dry and breezy conditions on the northwestern periphery of
a Four Corners high will likely affect locations in the northern
Great Basin, southern ID and WY on Day 5/Monday. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced into southern ID on Day 6/Tuesday
where forecast confidence is higher. However, predictability wanes
in the long term for Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday with increasing
ensemble spread.
..Williams.. 08/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
|
