Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two
are possible across portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and
far west Texas today into tonight.

...NM/CO/Far West TX...
A large upper trough remains over the western states today, with
strong southwesterly mid-level winds extending across the southern
Rockies.  A shortwave trough now moving across northern NM/southern
CO will depart the area, leaving a few hours of subsidence before a
combination of daytime heating and subtle forcing within the upper
jet aid in afternoon thunderstorm development over NM.  Favorable
deep-layer shear profiles and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will support
a risk of supercell structures through the afternoon and evening
from southern NM/far west TX into southeast CO.  Relatively steep
mid level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft suggest that large
hail is the main concern from these storms, but locally damaging
winds could also occur where daytime heating is maximized. A tornado
or two could occur in terrain-favored areas.

..Hart/Dean.. 10/23/2026