No watches are valid as of Tue May 26 00:15:02 UTC 2026.MD 0859 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of the mid-Missouri Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260013Z - 260145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated developing thunderstorms may bring a risk for
large hail and damaging wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. Watch
issuance is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and GOES lightning
data depict isolated, developing thunderstorms along a weak surface
trough from far northeastern Nebraska into northwestern Iowa.
Temperatures in the upper-80s F and dewpoints in the low-60s are
supporting moderate buoyancy, with 1500 to locally 2500 J/kg MLCAPE
depicted via latest objective analysis. While northwesterly
mid-level flow remains rather weak, 20-30 kts of effective shear is
sufficient to support some organization of more robust updrafts,
with the potential for marginal supercell structures. The primary
threats with these storms will be an isolated risk for large hail
and damaging wind gusts given steep low- and mid-level lapse rates.
The overall severe threat is expected to remain spatially and
temporally limited, with the mostly likely scenario being one or two
strong to severe thunderstorms evolving over the next 1-2 hours
before nocturnal cooling/stabilization begins to bring a decreasing
severe risk. Given this, watch issuance is unlikely, but trends will
continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42459719 42869719 43509668 44069539 44089445 43949397
43619375 43089385 42679419 42389485 42099560 41889626
41989684 42189711 42459719
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 0858 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
Mesoscale Discussion 0858
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Northern Rockies
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252346Z - 260145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for isolated damaging to occasionally severe
wind gusts will continue for a few more hours. Watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based convection is ongoing across
portions of the Northern Rockies from central Idaho into western
Montana, with several reports of damaging to severe wind gusts noted
with this activity over the least 1-2 hours. Latest objective
analysis depicts weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) across this
region, with a modified 18z BOI observed sounding depicting a deep,
well-mixed boundary layer with an inverted-v thermodynamic profile.
As this convection continues to evolve north-northeastward over the
next couple of hours, it will encounter accelerating mid-level flow
(sampled by the PDT/OTX VAD profiles) ahead of a robust mid/upper
trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. Steep low-level lapse
rates and dry boundary layer profiles will continue to promote
efficient evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport, with
the resultant potential for isolated damaging to occasionally severe
wind gusts.
Latest high-res guidance suggests that some clustering of ongoing
convection along developing cold pools may occur over the next 1-2
hours as storms evolve north-northeastward. In this scenario, a
corridor or two of locally greater severe wind potential may
develop. The greatest potential will likely be across portions of
west-central into northwestern Montana where guidance suggests a
pool of locally greater buoyancy may exist. Watch issuance is not
expected at this time, however, given the isolated nature of the
severe threat.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
LAT...LON 44791682 45951684 46601667 47491617 48281562 48931515
49041496 49061366 49071265 49061197 48811185 48041166
47421166 46541177 45331213 44631243 44371302 44261377
44131483 44161600 44351653 44791682
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MD 0857 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle...southeastern
Alabama...adjacent southwestern Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252220Z - 260015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The development of occasional supercell structures posing
a risk for brief, weak tornadoes may continue into early evening.
Due to the marginal/limited nature of this potential, it is not
clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends are being
monitored.
DISCUSSION...A modest belt of mean southerly ambient flow (on the
order of 20-30 kt) has developed inland across Alabama and Florida
Panhandle coastal areas, in association with a northeastward
migrating remnant mesoscale convective vortex to the northwest.
This has contributed to wind profiles including modest low-level
hodographs with clockwise curvature, along a low-level confluence
band which is providing a focus for vigorous thunderstorm
development extending west of Crestview FL southward offshore.
This convection is being supported by inflow of near saturated,
seasonably moist (including surface dew points in the lower/mid 70s
F) boundary layer air supportive of sizable CAPE up to around 2000
J/kg. And the environment has become conducive to supercell
structures with potential to produce brief/weak tornadoes. Given
the marginal nature of the wind profiles, the the enhancement of the
near-surface buoyancy, and potential upward parcel accelerations,
associated with the higher moisture content has probably been
necessary to support this activity. It is possible that this could
continue another few hours and perhaps spread a bit farther inland.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31128626 31628590 31518547 31118513 30598506 29948552
30238617 30708599 31128626
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 0856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0856
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of the central Great Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252213Z - 260015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may bring a
risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. Watch issuance
is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar/visible satellite imagery depicts isolated
thunderstorms evolving within a broader cumulus field extending
across portions of the central High/Great Plains. Modifying the 18z
LBF observed sounding with the latest surface observations depicts a
deep, well-mixed boundary layer profile, with weak buoyancy (around
500-750 J/kg MLCAPE), minimal remaining inhibition, and an LCL above
3.5 km. While generally weak shear (generally less than 20-25 kts)
is expected to largely limit updraft organization, the thermodynamic
environment will favor efficient evaporative cooling and the
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. An instance or two of
large hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest cores given
steep mid-level lapse rates. Current expectations are for isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms to evolve in this corridor over
the next couple of hours, with some potential for clustering along
outflow boundaries.
Latest surface analysis reveals a corridor of better low-level
moisture and instability farther east into eastern Nebraska and
southeastern South Dakota. Despite greater buoyancy, latest
mesoanalysis and observed soundings/ACARs profiles indicate
lingering capping across this region. Given this, it remains
uncertain whether storms will develop/evolve eastward into this
corridor of more favorable moisture/buoyancy. Should this occur,
however, modestly greater effective shear and MLCAPE of 1500-2000+
J/kg would support an increased threat for large hail with eastward
extent along with a threat for damaging wind gusts.
Watch issuance is unlikely at this time given the current
expectation for severe magnitude/coverage to remain limited. Trends
will continue to be monitored, however.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40690228 42300073 42610035 42799992 42849881 42709786
42479726 42069701 41729734 41249809 40759884 39970011
38900132 38650176 38660223 38680272 38940300 39420299
40690228
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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