Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN UTAH AND PARTS OF OHIO AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across
parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado.

...20z Update...
The forecast remains generally on track with only minor changes made
to the existing outlook. See the discussion below for additional
details.

..Chalmers/Weinman.. 09/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026/

...OH and Vicinity...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows broken cloud cover across
much of OH, which will allow pockets of heating/destabilization and
lead to moderate CAPE values by mid-afternoon.  Widely scattered
thunderstorm development is expected, in a regime of relatively weak
westerly flow aloft and poor lapse rates.  PWAT values approaching 2
inches and rather steep low-level lapse rates could result in
precip-loaded downdrafts capable of strong or occasionally damaging
winds.

...UT...
Moisture has increased across UT over the past 24 hours, with
dewpoints now in the low-mid 50s and PWAT values over 1 inch.  This
along with ample heating will lead to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. A band of 35-45 knot southwesterly mid-level winds
across this area will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for a few
rotating storms capable of hail and gusty winds.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...Central Idaho and Northeastern Oregon...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from
northern CA, OR, and northern Rockies as an upper-level low begins
to pivot northeastward out of northern CA. The upper low and
associated 50 kt mid-level jet across the Great Basin will
contribute to a favorable convective environment, with nocturnal
thunderstorms possible tonight into early D2/Thursday. The primary
driver of limited rainfall through Thursday will be fast
north-northeastward storm motions of 30-40 mph, particularly on the
nose of the mid-level jet across the central ID mountains. However,
marginal fuels, subsequent showers/thunderstorms on D3/Friday and
D4/Saturday as the low moves into the Northern Rockies should reduce
holdover ignition concerns. 

...Great Basin...
Surface winds from the south-southwest of around 15 mph are expected
to evolve under a expanding 50 kt mid-level jet Thursday. A dry and
well mixed boundary layer will support RH reductions close to 15%
across central/northern NV and southern ID. The dry and breezy
conditions will support an elevated fire weather threat where a
slight extension of Elevated highlights was made into north-central
NV and far southwest ID.

..Williams.. 09/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026/

...Synopsis...
Expanding high pressure over the Southeast and central U.S will
contribute to widespread above normal temperatures and dry
conditions on Day 2/Thursday. Meanwhile, a mid-level low will remain
centered over northern California/southern Oregon, maintaining
strong southwesterly flow over the Great Basin. Consecutive days of
dry and windy conditions have led to drying fuels across central
Nevada, increasing fire concerns. Sufficient daytime mixing will
promote south-southwesterly sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH
values of less than 15%, supporting the introduction of Elevated
highlights across the region.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

...Synopsis...
A weakening upper-level low will slowly progress eastward into the
central High Plains by early next week bringing precipitation to
much of the northern and central Rockies into the CO River Basin.  A
surface trough develops in the Central Plains Days
3-4/Friday-Saturday enhancing south-southwest winds and fire weather
concerns across portions of the Southern Plains. The polar jet
shifts into Canada with weaker flow aloft emerging across CONUS Day
5-8/Sunday-Wednesday time frame, ushering in dry conditions and
relatively light winds across the West. A cold front and associated
precipitation is forecast to gradually push southward into the
Southern Plains and southeastern U.S. bringing at least some relief
to a still very dry and drought stressed fuelscape.

...Southern Plains...
A surface trough ahead of an advancing cold front across the central
Plains will promote slightly higher south-southwest winds to
portions of the Southern Plains on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday.
Sustained wind speeds of 10-15 mph are forecast during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Although relative humidity reductions 
are likely to remain above 20%, very dry fuels (ERCs in the 90-95th
percentile), long term drought amid above normal temperatures and
recent problematic wildfire activity calls for introduction of 40%
critical probabilities across southwestern OK and portions of
northern/northwestern TX on both Friday and Saturday. Conditions are
expected to gradually improve beginning Day 5/Sunday as the cold
front and associated cooler temperatures and rainfall begin to move
into the Southern Plains.

..Williams.. 09/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...