URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Iowa
  Northern Illinois
  Southeast Minnesota
  Wisconsin

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 155 PM
  until 1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will further
develop through mid/late afternoon with bouts of severe hail and
damaging winds as the primary hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast
of Wausau WI to 35 miles east southeast of Moline IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.

...Guyer

STATUS FOR WATCH 0387 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

Mesoscale Discussion 1293
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into southern Colorado and the
Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241811Z - 242045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing within the higher terrain of the
southern Rockies will pose a severe wind/hail threat as they spread
east through the late afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance
will likely be needed later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The effects of strong diurnal heating/boundary-layer
mixing and orographic ascent are quickly becoming apparent in GOES
imagery across much of New Mexico. Several regions of building
cumulus are noted as temperatures warm into the low 90s and
lingering inhibition quickly erodes. Building cumulus is also noted
along the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where
upslope flow is providing focused forcing for ascent a few deeper
towers are noted in low-level water-vapor imagery, suggesting that
initial attempts at deep convective initiation will likely occur
within the next hour or so. 

Sustained convection developing along the terrain will spread east
within given westerly flow regime aloft. Lingering inhibition at
lower elevations may limit how quickly high-based convection can
utilize near-surface parcels, but once MLCIN erodes and/or cold
pools can become sufficiently deep, convection will be influenced by
the regionally rich low-level moisture in place across eastern NM/CO
(dewpoints in the upper 50s to 60s) that is supporting MLCAPE values
upwards of 1500 J/kg. Concurrently, convection will begin to realize
the 30-35 knots of deep-layer wind shear (sampled by the KFDX VWP),
which should promote supercellular storm modes initially with an
attendant threat for large hail and severe gusts. Watch issuance
will likely be needed by late afternoon as convection begins to
mature and spread east into the more buoyant air mass.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34090497 34710527 35650528 36330512 36910489 37360490
            37650488 37860470 37850446 37770398 37530351 37170301
            36750279 35940270 34610257 34020268 33740294 33610342
            33560390 33600428 33690457 33820478 34090497 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Mesoscale Discussion 1292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of Wisconsin into northern Illinois and
northwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241744Z - 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible with thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. A
severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Convection is already developing at midday near the MS
River into northwest WI where stronger heating has resulted in 1000
J/kg MLCAPE near an area of surface low pressure and moderate
westerly flow aloft. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually
increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon with
east/southeast extent across WI into northern IL. Boundary layer
moisture is somewhat modest, mainly in the low 60s, but this should
increase some through the day within a low-level warm advection
regime. While cloudiness and isolated showers persist across
northern IL, this is expected to gradually shift eastward and erode.
Regardless, instability should increase from west to east across
this area through the afternoon, aided by cool temperatures aloft. 

Regional VWP and SPC Mesoanalysis indicate effective shear greater
than 35 kt overspreading the region. Furthermore, forecast soundings
show elongated/straight hodographs. This kinematic environment
should support both clusters and supercells, with an accompanying
risk of isolated large hail and severe/damaging wind gusts.
Low-level SRH is generally modest across the region, but may be
locally enhanced across the far southern WI/northern IL vicinity
near the lake breeze and perhaps differential heating zone. A
tornado or two could also occur across the area. A severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed for portions of the MCD area in the
next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45238856 44598800 43968758 41598651 41448656 41148677
            40908732 41198882 41619010 42769102 44229159 44849159
            45259127 45579096 45749030 45658934 45238856 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Mesoscale Discussion 1291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241720Z - 241945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible through the
afternoon across the central and southern Florida Peninsula.

DISCUSSION...Ample heating of a very moist airmass through early
afternoon is resulting in moderate to strong instability across the
FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms have already developed, mainly
along Atlantic coast sea breezes. Additional thunderstorm
development is likely through the afternoon. Vertical shear will
remain weak, limiting a greater organized severe risk. However,
given MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates with the
high PW environment, strong outflow/downburst winds will be
possible. Additionally, if sufficient clustering can occur, this
would increase the risk for forward propagation and locally damaging
wind potential. Overall severe risk is expected to remain limited
and a watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   29108082 27568014 26487988 25798005 25658058 25828118
            26258164 27378200 28328228 28788237 29118210 29238133
            29108082 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN...HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with
a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Other severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the Midwest and Great Basin.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High
Plains today via low-level upslope flow, which should be most
focused/strongest across southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado, and
to a lesser extent, the Raton Mesa vicinity. As daytime heating
occurs and low-level clouds present this morning gradually erode,
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by mid to late afternoon in
a narrow corridor across northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming.
This instability will also be aided by the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates.

Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across much the region
as strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a
shortwave trough over the northern Plains overspreads the central
Rockies/High Plains. Accordingly, the highest convective coverage is
anticipated from east-central/southeast Wyoming into
northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy should be maximized.
Deep-layer shear will be rather strong, with values up to 50-60 kt.
These conditions will support the potential for intense supercells
capable of large to very large hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter
possible). Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could
support a couple of tornadoes in this region as well. Eventual
upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of producing
severe winds is probable into eastern Colorado/western Kansas this
evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.

Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the
southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud
bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to
severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may
also occur.

...Midwest including portions of Wisconsin/northern Illinois...
A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread Wisconsin
and northern Illinois today as a weak shortwave trough moves across
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Seasonably
cool temperatures aloft will aid up to around 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating along/ahead of a weak cold
front. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with moderate to locally
strong deep-layer shear providing support for updraft organization.
A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for severe
hail and damaging winds, and possibly some tornado risk, as they
spread east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before
eventually weakening.

...Great Basin/Four Corners...
Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across
the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater
low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through
the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
east-northeastward from the lower Colorado River Valley across the
Great Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well
mixed with strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon,
with weak instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will
aid in northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists
for strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon
and early evening.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms should increase/re-intensify regionally this
afternoon, aided by multiple MCVs interacting with a convectively
augmented front that extends northwest-southeastward regionally.
Deep-layer flow and related shear should remain rather modest.
Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores
that form, but the potential for more organized clusters is
uncertain. Influenced by prior/modifying outflow, at least a
conditional-type risk for supercell redevelopment later today is
most probable across portions of southern/eastern Oklahoma toward
the ArkLaTex.

...Florida...
After mostly clear skies this morning, cumulus field continues to
increase within a very moist air mass to the south of a front across
the northern Florida Peninsula, with low to mid 70s F warm-sector
surface dewpoints. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today,
cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support
the development of moderate to locally strong instability this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the interior Florida Peninsula and
Atlantic Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates.

..Guyer/Moore.. 06/24/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms
are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into
the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow will bring broad westerly flow aloft across much of the
central Rockies into the central/southern Plains D2/Thursday. Within
the broad upper-level flow, several perturbations will rotate across
the central/southern Plains. Further east, a more potent shortwave
trough with a band of enhanced westerly flow will move across the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Wisconsin
south and west into the central Plains shifting south and eastward
into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. A surface low will
deepen across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles through the evening.

...High Plains...
A shortwave trough moving out of Montana will bring forcing for
ascent and thunderstorm development by the afternoon across portions
of the High Plains. Guidance suggests that ahead of this feature,
widespread cloud cover will be in place across much of the
central/northern Rockies Thursday morning/early afternoon. This may
inhibit destabilization, especially with northern extent into
portions of eastern Montana/northern Colorado. Nonetheless, it
appears at least marginal instability will be achieved by late
afternoon through filtered daytime heating along and east of the
Rockies. This in combination with deep layer shear around 30-40 kts
will support organized clusters capable of damaging wind. Somewhat
better heating is expected across southeastern Colorado, where less
cloud cover is expected. Across this region, supercells will be
possible with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks...
A quick moving shortwave trough will likely support potential for an
MCS/cluster of thunderstorms to be ongoing Thursday morning into
portions of northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas. The exact location of
this and resulting remnant outflow boundary placement will have a
large impact on afternoon severe potential. Model trends in the 12z
guidance have been to push this boundary further south into portions
of northern Oklahoma, with the best instability also being shunted
further south. Afternoon thunderstorm development should be centered
along the intersection of the remnant outflow/cold front from
southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Moderate instability and
deep layer shear around 30-45 kts will support supercells, with
storm motions likely to be along-boundary. There remains strong
signal that a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet will increase
into the evening across Oklahoma into southern Kansas. This in
combination with favorable along boundary storm motions will support
potential for tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. The main
uncertainty remains in the exact placement of the boundary relative
to the more favorable corridor of instability/low-level jet axis.
The 5% tornado area was shifted southward with this update to
account for recent trends. It is possible that if more confidence in
the placement of these features occurs, higher probabilities may be
needed. For now, confidence remains moderate in supercells
developing with potential for large to very large hail and damaging
wind.

...Portions of the Ohio Valley into southern New York...
Development is expected along the cold front from southern New York
into the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon as a jet streak moves across
the region with increasing forcing for ascent. Moderate instability
and strong deep layer shear ahead of this will support organized
storms and perhaps a few transient supercells with potential for
damaging wind and large hail. The Marginal Risk was expanded along
the front into portions of Indiana/southern Ohio/northern Kentucky
to account for this potential extending along the entirety of the
cold front.

...Northern Utah...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions
of Utah Thursday afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are
expected with very dry near-surface conditions. Modest instability
will overlap with strong deep layer shear across northern Utah by
the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate large inverted-v profiles
and potential for severe winds. A Marginal Risk was added to the
area to account for this potential.

..Thornton.. 06/24/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UTAH...

...Morning Update...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. Current surface observations
depict widespread RH values below 25% in parts of the Great Basin
and Southwest, with critical RH values of less than 15% (localized
single digits) in the upper CO Plateau. Meanwhile, a lifting
shortwave trough has encouraged scattered thundershowers to develop
across portions of the Southwest this morning. As mid-level moisture
advects northward via increasing southwesterly flow, additional
thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon and evening over
the Great Basin. Storms will initially remain dry, with deep
sub-cloud layers promoting evaporation thus decreasing precipitation
efficiency. However, as the low-levels begin to saturate, a
transition to a mixed wet/dry storm mode is expected to occur across
UT and the CO West Slope. Lightning ignitions are possible where dry
fuels exist. Strong/severe outflow winds are also a concern (see the
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook), impacting any new/ongoing fires and
control efforts. See the previous discussion for more information,
and visit your weather service office at weather.gov for more
localized forecasts.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
...Central and Western Utah and the Interior West...
An upper-level shortwave trough entering the Great Basin will
trigger high-based showers and scattered dry thunderstorms today.
Thunderstorm activity will begin in southern Utah this morning
before spreading across the larger region as daytime heating
supports more widespread instability aided by topographic lift.
Critically dry fuels and sub-cloud dryness will at least initially
create an environment for lightning ignitions and potentially very
strong outflow winds. Precipitable water values will climb toward
1.0 inch by evening, transitioning storms from dry to a wet and dry
mix with a chance of localized wetting rains along the Interstate 15
corridor. However, gusty outflows will threaten active wildfires,
and pyrocumulus development remains highly possible with
pyrocumulonimbus not out of the question if surface heating from
fire activity can maintain momentum. Isolated dry thunderstorms with
quick storm motions of up to 30 mph and generally slightly drier
moisture profiles will also impact the Four Corners, eastern Great
Basin, Wyoming Basin, and the central Idaho and southwestern Montana
mountains.

...Northwestern Colorado, Northeastern Utah, and Southern Wyoming...
Ahead of this afternoon's incoming moisture plume, strong 45 to 50
knot mid-level flow will produce a window of elevated fire weather
conditions. Expect sustained west-southwest winds around 15 mph
paired with minimum relative humidity values down to 10 to 15
percent over dry fuels before humidity values begin increasing late
in the evening.

...Central and Eastern Nevada...
On the western flank of the aforementioned moisture plume and
coinciding with a mid-level shortwave trough, 25-35 knot mid-level
flow will be efficiently mixed down to the surface given the hot and
dry boundary layer. This will result in sustained west to southwest
winds around 15 mph paired with minimum relative humidity values
down to 10 to 15 percent.

While this sub-tropical moisture will briefly temper the severe
dryness over the next couple of days, a much larger concern exists.
Any lightning holdover ignitions from storms today and tomorrow
could rapidly expand later this week. Forecast guidance continues to
show a major, seasonally abnormal trough arriving Friday into
Saturday, bringing widespread and significant critical fire weather
conditions with southwest winds gusting above 40 mph ahead of a
strong cold front.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...