WW 270 SEVERE TSTM ND 022000Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North Dakota
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue through this
afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front moving into
central North Dakota. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate
vertical shear will support the potential for supercells, with large
to isolated very large hail as the primary hazards. There is a
low-probability tornado risk, mitigated by the expectation that
cells will trend towards a more clustered mode rather quickly.
Damaging gusts are also possible later in the convective cycle as
bowing line segments become more common.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northwest
of Devils Lake ND to 55 miles south of Bismarck ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 269...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Mosier
WW 269 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 021940Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Nebraska
Western and Central South Dakota
Eastern Wyoming
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next few hours from eastern Wyoming into northwest Nebraska and
western/central South Dakota. Primary threat initially will be large
hail, with the threat transitioning to strong to severe gusts as
storms move from a more clustered cellular mode to a more linear,
bowing segment mode. A few gusts over 70 mph are possible. There is
also a low-probability tornado risk if a storm can mature while
remaining discrete and cellular.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northeast of
Lemmon SD to 35 miles southeast of Scottsbluff NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...Mosier
WW 0270 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 270
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE DIK
TO 60 WSW DVL TO 75 N DVL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
..MOORE..06/03/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 270
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-003-005-015-019-027-029-031-037-039-041-043-047-051-057-
059-063-065-067-071-083-085-093-095-099-103-030140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BARNES BENSON
BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY
EMMONS FOSTER GRANT
GRIGGS HETTINGER KIDDER
LOGAN MCINTOSH MERCER
MORTON NELSON OLIVER
PEMBINA RAMSEY SHERIDAN
SIOUX STUTSMAN TOWNER
WALSH WELLS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0269 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 269
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964
..MOORE..06/03/26
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 269
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-013-031-045-123-157-161-165-030140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHERRY
DAWES MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX
SDC007-019-031-033-041-047-055-063-071-075-081-093-095-102-103-
105-117-121-137-030140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CORSON
CUSTER DEWEY FALL RIVER
HAAKON HARDING JACKSON
JONES LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS STANLEY TODD
ZIEBACH
MD 0964 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269... FOR FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0964
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Areas affected...Far northern Nebraska into central South Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...
Valid 022356Z - 030200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing in proximity to an emerging MCV
may periodically pose a threat for large hail and perhaps damaging
downburst winds. However, the longevity and coverage of this threat
is uncertain given poor environmental wind shear. Downstream watch
issuance will most likely not be needed.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, regional radar imagery shows the
gradual emergence of a weak MCV associated with a persistent
convective cluster across south-central SD. New convection continues
to develop in proximity to this feature and along a composite
outflow boundary that is gradually pushing south. Despite this
trend, MRMS data shows that attendant convection has been mostly
short-lived (on the order of an hour or less) and only occasionally
intensifying to severe limits. This is likely a result of
diminishing mid and upper-level flow with southeastward extent that
is modulating overall storm organization/longevity. Nonetheless,
latest RAP mesoanalysis estimate suggest this MCV is approaching a
regional buoyancy maximum where MLCAPE is upwards of around 2000
J/kg. This, combined with increasing ascent on the southern fringe
of the MCV/cold pool as the nocturnal jet intensifies, may support
an increase in thunderstorms and potentially sporadic large hail and
strong/severe downburst winds. Given the poor kinematics, any
severe threat will likely be localized and short lived, which should
preclude the need for downstream watch issuance (though trends will
continue to be monitored).
..Moore.. 06/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44240116 44550073 44920025 45049996 45089944 45019903
44809886 44479870 44079873 43619898 43049968 42890032
42780108 42800156 42860191 43100207 43250199 43360152
43510126 43810114 44240116
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 0963 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Areas affected...Parts of south-central and eastern NM into west TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022248Z - 030115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and localized severe gusts will
continue into the evening.
DISCUSSION...Several slow-moving but vigorous storms are ongoing
from parts of south-central/eastern NM into Far West TX as of 2230
UTC, while more isolated strong storms have moved into the western
TX Panhandle. Strong heating and relatively moist low-level
east-southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates has
resulted in moderate to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE of
greater than 2000 J/kg in place outside of areas already influenced
by convective outflow.
Deep-layer flow is generally weak, but the backed low-level flow
veering to weak south-southwesterlies aloft is supporting effective
shear of 20-25 kt, with locally greater values over parts of NM. In
conjunction with the favorable instability, this magnitude of
deep-layer will continue to support potential for strong multicells
and perhaps a transient slow-moving supercell, with attendant
potential for isolated hail and localized severe gusts. Some
consolidation of outflow is possible with time, which could result
in a somewhat broader area of strong to locally severe gusts from
eastern NM into parts of west TX this evening, before convection
generally weakens with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization.
..Dean/Guyer.. 06/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 30920518 32200594 33330650 33960465 34660449 35080352
35320312 35830269 36400204 36370169 36060146 35540134
33760218 31830304 29550262 29030308 29180368 29550425
29840455 30490498 30920518
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track and only minor changes were made with
this update. The primary addition was a CIG1 wind area over parts of
western/central SD. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will
evolve off the Black Hills and grow upscale as they intercept a
diurnally destabilized air mass and gradually strengthening
low-level jet -- promoting some gusts upwards of 75 mph.
..Weinman.. 06/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026/
...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, with a cold
front extending southward from this low across western ND and into
northwest SD before becoming oriented more southwestward through
northeast WY into south-central WY. Warm-air advection showers and
thunderstorms are already ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary
across ND. General expectation is for these showers to continue
while remaining predominantly subsevere. By this afternoon,
additional development is anticipated along the slow-moving front
from central ND into western SD and far eastern WY.
Environment preceding the front will be moist and unstable, with
upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg.
Boundary-parallel shear suggest the potential for both an anafrontal
character and quickly linear mode across much of ND. Even so, some
severe is possible, with large hail (isolated very large) and
damaging gusts as the primary risks. The shear orientation becomes a
bit less parallel to the boundary with southern extent, and there is
some potential for initial supercell structures from south-central
ND through western SD and into far eastern WY. Some low-level
southeasterly flow is expected near the surface low (which is
expected to redevelop southward), resulting in low-level hodographs
that indicate some tornado risk. This risk could be countered by
high LCLs and the likely quick transition to more linear structures.
Some undercutting or movement north of the outflow-augmented cold
front is likely with time, and the potential for development of a
strong to severe evening/overnight MCS appears limited.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the
central and southern High Plains today amid moist low-level
easterlies/southeasterlies and modest southwesterlies aloft. There
is some indication one or two vorticity maxima may move into the
region along the northwestern periphery of the southern Plains
ridging. Shear is weak and a generally disorganized,
outflow-dominant storm structure is expected but some isolated hail
and/or damaging gusts are possible sporadically with the strongest
storms.
...Southeast into Central TX...
Surface analysis places an outflow boundary associated with
convective clusters over OK arcing from northwest TX south of the
Metroplex and into northeast TX. A hot and humid air mass over
central/southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.
...Southeast AL/southern GA into much of FL...
A deepening upper trough and associated large-scale ascent will
augment mesoscale factors (including surface moisture convergence
and sea-breeze boundaries) to support numerous thunderstorms across
the region. Strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could
support occasional storm organization and robust updrafts capable of
producing damaging downbursts. Interactions between ongoing storms
and mesoscale boundaries could also augment updrafts, with the
resultant water loading also producing occasionally strong gusts.
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper level shortwave over the Canadian border will continue an
eastward progression on Day 3/Thursday with otherwise weak flow over
the southern half of the CONUS. A more significant trough over the
northern Pacific will approach the west coast on Day 4/Friday,
leading to increased winds across the Pacific Northwest and adjacent
areas. This system continues to move through the northwestern CONUS
on Day 5/Saturday before lifting northeast on Day 6/Sunday. In the
wake of this trough, a cold front is anticipated to spread across
the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Great Basin, temporarily
dropping daytime temperatures below normals over the western third
of the US.
...Portions of the Southwest and Great Basin...
...Day 4-6/Friday-Sunday...
Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow ahead of the approaching
upper-level trough will encourage a dry and breezy environment to
emerge across the Great Basin and Southwest by Day 4/Friday. 40%
Critical probabilities have been introduced where extended guidance
and ensemble probabilities denote a broad area of low RH and strong
winds. This potential will become more widespread and expand farther
east on Day 5/Saturday and continue on Day 6/Sunday as the
upper-level trough progresses. Higher probabilities will likely be
needed if model trends continue to hold past Day 4/Friday.
..Stearns.. 06/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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