WW 487 SEVERE TSTM AZ 122200Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and south central Arizona
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Storms clusters are forming over the Mogollon Rim and the
mountains in southeast Arizona, and the storms are expected to
spread westward through late evening. The storm environment favors
severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph as the primary threat as storms
propagate into the lower deserts, especially where outflow mergers
occur. Otherwise, the strongest initial cells could also produce
isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Phoenix
AZ to 60 miles south southwest of Tucson AZ. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 485...WW 486...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
08020.
...Thompson
WW 486 SEVERE TSTM GA SC 121850Z - 130100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central into Eastern Georgia
Central South Carolina
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
SUMMARY...Several clusters of thunderstorms will gradually move from
west to east across the Watch area through the early evening. Some
of the more intense thunderstorms will yield a risk for strong to
severe gusts (50 to 60 mph) capable of wind damage. This activity
will likely diminish around sunset.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Macon
GA to 50 miles northeast of Orangeburg SC. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 485...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27015.
...Smith
WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LYONS..07/12/26
ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...FGZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC007-013-019-021-023-025-130040-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GILA MARICOPA PIMA
PINAL SANTA CRUZ YAVAPAI
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SAV
TO 10 SE AGS TO 10 ESE CAE TO 25 E SPA.
..HALBERT..07/12/26
ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...CHS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SCC005-009-011-017-023-025-027-039-049-055-057-061-075-079-085-
130040-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL
CALHOUN CHESTER CHESTERFIELD
CLARENDON FAIRFIELD HAMPTON
KERSHAW LANCASTER LEE
ORANGEBURG RICHLAND SUMTER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH TO
10 SSW VLD TO 15 E MGR TO 15 NNW MGR TO 35 SSW CSG.
..CHALMERS..07/12/26
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC067-079-123-122140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAFAYETTE MADISON TAYLOR
GAC019-071-075-095-173-177-185-273-277-321-122140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN COLQUITT COOK
DOUGHERTY LANIER LEE
LOWNDES TERRELL TIFT
WORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1610 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeastern and eastern Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 130027Z - 130230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...High-based showers and thunderstorms will be capable of
sporadic severe gusts this evening, but a WW is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 0025 UTC, radar imagery shows high-based showers
and storms have developed over parts of northern and eastern MT.
Very hot surface temperatures (110+ F) are supporting very deep
surface mixed layer depths of the order of 3-5 km. Within this deep
dry boundary layer, dry adiabatic lapse rates and strong evaporation
potential exist, which is supporting stronger downdrafts and dry
microburst potential. Several mesonet stations have shown outflow
gusts of45-55 kt so far. This should continue this evening, given
the modest buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) atop the deep and dry
inverted v profiles.
Broader storm organization potential appears limited however, owing
to relatively modest buoyancy and dryness in the sub-cloud layer.
While some clustering of stronger showers and outflow could develop
as they move north toward the Canadian border where buoyancy is
larger, a WW appears unlikely given the lack of more coherent
convective organization.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 07/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 47351203 48931016 49070973 49040499 47930620 47100805
46491028 46251125 46591184 47351203
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MD 1609 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of central and southern Arizona
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...
Valid 122343Z - 130115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind gusts continues this
evening. The highest likelihood for strong gusts is expected to
remain with the southern storm cluster this evening.
DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery
showed several clusters of thunderstorms ongoing across portions of
central and southern AZ. The environment ahead of these storms from
the southern Mogollon Rim and adjacent desert remains unstable
(SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) and modestly sheared. Broader storm
organization appears limited and contingent upon consolidating
outflow. However, very warm surface temperatures and steep lapse
rates in the low and mid-levels will favor the potential for severe
gusts with high-based convection over the entire watch area this
evening.
The stronger of the storm clusters across the lower desert has shown
some tendency to cluster over the last few hours and additional
development has been noted east of the PHX Metro early this evening.
Recent measured severe gusts at TUS and high-res guidance suggest
this cluster will maintain the highest likelihood for severe gusts
over the next few hours.
..Lyons.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
LAT...LON 31841250 32121316 32731343 35071336 35441328 34991268
34381210 33871113 33241088 32511062 31601048 31371051
31301086 31351126 31841250
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...AND PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered
severe/damaging winds may still occur this afternoon/evening across
parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and
separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe
winds also remain possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains primarily on track. The
Slight risk wind probabilities were extended southwestward into GA
to account for loosely organized bands of convection approaching a
boundary layer supportive of efficient evaporative cooling and
subsequent damaging gust potential from downbursts. Across the Upper
Great Lakes, some westward trimming of thunder/severe probabilities
was done since better forcing for ascent (e.g. WAA) is expected to
remain placed north and east over Ontario. Lastly, conditional
intensity level 1 (CIG1) was introduced across southern AZ, where
confidence is relatively higher in one of the stronger evaporatively
cooled downdrafts potentially producing a severe gust in the 75-85
mph range. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to thunder
and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and
guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 07/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/
...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains...
Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field
over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating
zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to
east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to
warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the
Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will
likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong
to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary
hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely
develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex
region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms.
Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary
layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3
km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger
downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains
but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher
severe probabilities this outlook update.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer
air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether
additional storm development will occur this afternoon in
association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over
parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for
supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued
conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some
guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into
parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts.
...Arizona...
Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary
layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast
to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert,
aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled
by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more
water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph).
...Montana...
A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few
high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across
north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep
inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the
stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts.
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...
A strong upper high will develop and persist over the
central/northern Plains into the Midwest through at least Day
5/Thursday. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the
Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward
across much of the Intermountain West early to midweek. Daily
monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the
Great Basin, but an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies beyond Day 4/Wednesday,
helping suppress moisture south and eastward. Farther east, a deep
upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the Great
Lakes and Northeast as it digs southward on Days
3-4/Wednesday-Thursday, leading to unsettled conditions across the
region through the remainder of the forecast period.
...Northern California, much of Oregon, and northwestern Nevada...
Monsoonal moisture (PWAT values of 0.8-1.5") is continuing to advect
west and north across the Great Basin, eastern California, and into
portions of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies. On the
western/northern fringes of the deeper moisture, a mix of wet/dry
thunderstorms are likely. On Day 3/Tuesday, 10% dry thunderstorm
probabilities were maintained across far northern California into
central-eastern Oregon. Forecast PWAT values of 0.8-1" and surface
dewpoints of 35-50F will likely to lead to at least pockets of
wetting rain. However, storm motions of 25-40 knots, 30% or less
probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.1", and receptive fuels should
uphold a concern for lightning ignitions. Additionally, deeper
moisture will move out of these areas by mid-week with dry/breezy
conditions to follow.
...Central to northern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of
eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern
Colorado on Day 3/Tuesday through at least Day 5/Thursday. While RH
will recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain
breezy amid dry fuels. 40% Critical probabilities have been
maintained on Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday, and introduced on Day
5/Thursday.
...California Central Valley...
Warm daytime temperatures and low RH will contribute to drying fuels
across the Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley. ERCs are forecast
to approach the 90-95th percentile mid-week amid dry and breezy
conditions, supporting any new ignitions and the emergence of any
lightning holdovers from sporadic wet/dry thunderstorms early in the
forecast period. 40% Critical probabilities were withheld on Day
3/Tuesday for now, but have been introduced on Day 4/Wednesday where
ensembles depict a broader overlap of meteorological fire weather
conditions.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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