Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain generally low across the U.S.
through tonight.

...Discussion...
Cold mid-level air overspreading the Pacific Coast into
Intermountain West, associated with splitting large-scale mid/upper
troughing, has contributed to weak conditional instability, based on
observed and forecast soundings.  Thermodynamic profiles appear to
have become at least potentially marginally conducive to convection
capable of producing lightning in a broad swath, across northern and
central California through the northern Intermountain Region and
Great Basin, as well as across the Pacific Northwest.  

Despite this destabilization, to this point, weak thunderstorm
development has been generally negligible.  With the onset of
diurnal boundary-layer cooling, this may not change appreciably this
evening into the overnight hours.  

However, with the mid-level cold core of one notable short wave
perturbation just now beginning to spread inland of Washington and
adjacent Oregon coastal areas, mid-level forcing for ascent and
cooling might still increase sufficiently to support minimum
threshold thunderstorm probabilities tonight.

Across parts of the southern Sierra Nevada into Great Basin, forcing
for ascent associated with a more modest and weakening short wave
perturbation could also still support minimum threshold thunderstorm
probabilities.

..Kerr.. 01/05/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

Fire weather concerns limited/low confidence through the extended
period. Quasi-zonal flow pattern will be in place across the Plains
on D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday. Though flow aloft will remain
strong, at the surface gradients will relax as a surface high builds
in. A few pockets of dry/breezy conditions will remain possible
across portions of the central High Plains. Overall, no widespread
fire weather concerns are noted. 

The next longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western
US on D5/Thursday. A surface low is progged to develop across the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs,
southerly flow will increase with moisture advection into the
western portion of the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and
Missouri River Valleys. Guidance differs on exactly how far into the
Plains this moisture reaches, and as such, how much precipitation
will occur with the developing low. The trend over the last 36-48
hours is wetter for D5/Thursday which may aid in improving status of
fuels and mitigating any widespread fire weather concerns. 

There is some indication that on D6/Friday, strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. This may lead to some overlap of windy/dry conditions
across portions of western and north-central Texas. Confidence is
low in including any areas at this time with potential precipitation
unknown on D5/Thursday.

..Thornton.. 01/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...