Mesoscale Discussion 2248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Areas affected...Southern New York into New England

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 021834Z - 022230Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates between 1-2 inches per hour remain
likely across southern New York into portions of New England this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar mosaics show the development of a snow
band across portions of south/southeastern New York in response to
strengthening frontogenesis between the 925-850 mb levels across the
Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Surface observations and web cams
under this band are reporting visibility reductions between 1/4 to
1/2 mile, which given weak winds across the region, are likely being
driven primarily by moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Broad-scale
ascent ahead of an approaching upper wave and more focused mesoscale
ascent within the warm advection branch of an intensifying low-level
cyclone (augmented by frontogenetical responses) will remain
favorably phased through the remainder of the afternoon over the
greater New England region. This will continue to favor widespread
light/moderate precipitation and the maintenance and/or development
of heavier precipitation bands. Consequently, snowfall rates between
1-2 inches/hour will remain likely for areas north of the surface
freezing line. Nearly isothermal temperature profiles from the
surface to around 850 mb suggests that areas near the surface
freezing line may continue to see rapid fluctuations in
precipitation type between snow, sleet, and potentially freezing
rain.

..Moore.. 12/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   42227105 41537270 41247350 41107407 41167459 41297490
            41587521 41947516 42257497 42457469 43647197 43657149
            43567127 43127069 42887051 42647051 42457066 42227105 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0145 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No organized severe storms are anticipated today.

...Central FL...
A large upper trough is moving across the eastern states today, with
a strong cold front extending across FL.  Scattered showers and
occasional thunderstorms have been occurring along the front, in a
moist and marginally unstable air mass.  While strong storms cannot
be completely ruled out, the area of concern is small and convective
trends are weak suggesting the risk is less than 5%.

..15_ows.. 12/02/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the central
CONUS tomorrow (Wednesday), aiding in the reinforcement of surface
high pressure and associated static stability across most of the
CONUS. While thunderstorm development should be suppressed over most
locales, isolated thunderstorms may develop within a broad warm-air
advection regime along the western Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms will be
most likely as a cold front surges into the Gulf, locally enhancing
low-level lift within the warm-air advection regime. Forecast
soundings along the TX/LA coast and inland suggest that a stable
layer will be in place, so storms inland should be elevated in
nature. Given the expected meager buoyancy, the risk for severe
storms appears too low for probabilities.

..15_ows.. 12/02/2025

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
coastal portions of the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity.
Severe potential appears low at this time.

...Western and Center Gulf Coast vicinity...

Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Thursday.
Strong surface high pressure will be in place over the Rockies/Great
Basin, as well as across the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will
be draped along/just offshore the TX coast, while a warm front
extends eastward near the LA coast, then southeast across the
eastern Gulf. 

As an upper shortwave trough moves across the Plains, a weak coastal
low will develop along the Upper TX Coast/LA coast late in the
period. This may allow richer Gulf moisture to move into far
southeast LA and coastal MS/AL in the 09-12z time period. Midlevel
warm advection and increasing ascent atop a cool boundary layer will
support elevated thunderstorm activity along portions of the
western/central Gulf coast through the period. While some
surface-based instability could move inland very late in the period,
this is uncertain and may remain over immediate coastal areas of
southeast LA. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain
limited given Gulf moisture will mostly remain offshore through the
period, though trends will be monitored for some increasing
potential late in the Day 3 (early Friday morning) time frame.

..Leitman.. 12/02/2025