Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Large-scale trough amplification will continue to occur over the
eastern third of the CONUS, with a substantially deepening surface
low off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, while a cold front continues
southeastward and clears the Florida Peninsula by early evening.
Near and ahead of this front, isolated thunderstorms may
develop/move inland across the central and southern Peninsula today,
but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust
convection will remain low.

For the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, intense low-level warm
advection will contribute to some potential for lightning discharge
in mid-level convection, associated with evolving heavier snow bands
along the northwest-north side of the deepening cyclone.

Across the Pacific Northwest, significant mid-level cooling and
steepening lapse rates are expected along the Washington coast by
early afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop and some
potential for lightning is possible with convection occurring within
this warm-advection regime.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/22/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New
England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb
cyclogenesis occurs.  Some of this lightning activity will occur
with heavy snow.

Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front
as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula.  Also,
isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very
cold temperatures aloft.  In all of these places, weak instability
will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/22/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A powerful cyclone initially offshore of the southern New England
coast will move northeastward toward Nova Scotia on Monday. Any
remaining lightning activity with this system is expected to be
offshore by the start of the period. Otherwise, cool, dry, and
stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage should
preclude thunderstorm development across the central/eastern CONUS. 

Elsewhere, shallow convection may persist into Monday morning across
parts of the Olympic Peninsula of WA, but lightning potential should
generally diminish with time. A midlevel shortwave trough will move
from the Canadian Prairies toward the northern High Plains during
the afternoon into Monday night, along the periphery of an upper
ridge. Negligible moisture/instability is expected to limit
thunderstorm potential with this shortwave.

..Dean.. 02/22/2026