No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 7 07:28:02 UTC 2026.MD 0365 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska into southwestern Iowa
and extreme northern Missouri
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 070536Z - 071130Z
SUMMARY...Snowfall rates may occasionally exceed 1 inch per hour
tonight from far eastern Nebraska into portions of southwestern Iowa
and extreme northern Missouri in association with a heavier band of
precipitation.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery depicts an ongoing precipitation
band extending from portions of eastern Nebraska into northeastern
Missouri within a corridor of strong 700-600 mb frontogenesis. While
surface temperatures remain just above freezing in the mid-30s F,
continued low-level evaporative cooling amid weak cold, dry air
advection will support decreasing surface temperatures and a
transition from rain to snow as the primary precipitation type over
the next few hours. The aforementioned frontogenetic forcing and
favorable jet streak dynamics aloft are expected to contribute to
strong ascent within the dendritic growth zone, which may promote
occasional snowfall rates of 1 inch or more per hour within the
heaviest portions of the band.
Some uncertainty does remain regarding the degree of low-level
cooling, however, with some guidance suggesting that temperatures
within a low-level warm layer (evident around 850 mb in the 00Z OAX
sounding) may remain just above freezing. Should this occur, a
snow/sleet mix would be more likely.
..Chalmers.. 04/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40369388 40509435 40839522 40979566 41069616 41129656
41289677 41539682 41719657 41729575 41449459 41149400
40939366 40659343 40409364 40369388
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject over the Atlantic while another
pronounced mid-level trough rapidly traverses the northern Rockies
today. Meanwhile, multiple low-amplitude impulses traversing
relatively zonal upper flow will overspread the Southwest and the FL
Peninsula. Across the Southern Rockies, enough lift amid cool air
aloft (and thus scant buoyancy) should accompany the aforementioned
low-amplitude mid-level impulse to support isolated to potentially
scattered thunderstorm development. Scattered thunderstorms may also
develop across the FL Peninsula along sea-breeze boundaries given a
moist, heated low-level airmass. Scattered high-based/low-topped
storms are likely across the northern High Plains with the approach
of the upper trough. Storms will develop atop a deep and dry
boundary layer, but with scant buoyancy. Given the dry boundary
layer, gusty conditions may accompany the stronger storms. However,
the severe wind threat currently appears too low for the
introduction of a Category 1/Marginal risk at this time.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/07/2026
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.
...Western and Central Kansas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Wednesday. Ahead of the system, a broad low-level jet will
move through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, with
moisture advection occurring to the south of the front over much of
the region. By early evening, the front is forecast to be located
across northern Kansas. As low-level convergence increases along the
front during the late afternoon, convective initiation will become
likely. A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop in
northern and western Kansas, moving southeastward into south-central
Kansas during the evening. The NAM forecast sounding at Garden City,
Kansas late Wednesday afternoon has MUCAPE near 750 J/kg with about
35 knots of effective shear and 850-500 mb lapse rates greater 8
C/km. This should be enough for isolated large hail with the
stronger cells. The hail threat should continue into the early to
mid evening, as a low-level jet ramps up across over the central
Plains.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into the central Plains. Isolated severe storms with hail
may also develop in the southern High Plains.
...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Thursday over much of the northern U.S., with westerly flow in the
central states. At the surface, a slow moving front is forecast to
remain over western and northern Kansas extending eastward into
northern Missouri. The front will be a focus for convection during
the afternoon and evening, with scattered thunderstorms becoming
likely. NAM forecast soundings near the front by early evening have
MUCAPE ranging from around 2500 J/kg in north-central Kansas to
around 1200 J/kg in northern Missouri. Effective shear along much of
this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be from 35 to 45 knots,
with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This should support a
marginal severe threat. Supercells with isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts will be possible.
...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
Intermountain West on Thursday, as westerly mid-level flow remains
in place over the south-central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be located across the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to
develop over west Texas by Thursday afternoon. Although large-scale
ascent will remain weak, low-level convergence near the dryline may
be enough for isolated convective initiation. Model forecasts
suggest that an axis of moderate instability will be in place to the
east of the dryline by afternoon, with MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, steep mid-level lapse rates will be in
place. This should support an isolated large hail threat with any
cells that can initiate, in spite of the limited forcing.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
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