WW 627 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 252050Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast New Mexico
Oklahoma Panhandle
Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to develop and
intensify this afternoon and continue to grow upscale this evening
into a squall line. Scattered severe gusts 60 to 80 mph are the
primary hazard.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of
Clayton NM to 60 miles north of Childress TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 626...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Smith
WW 626 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 252035Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Minnesota
Northwest Wisconsin
Lake Superior
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to
develop and intensify this afternoon and evening as the storms move
east across the Watch. A few supercells are possible and will pose
a risk for damaging gusts and large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Ely MN
to 95 miles southwest of Kennedy WI. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Smith
WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW TCC TO
20 WNW DHT TO 5 SW EHA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
..SQUITIERI..08/25/26
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC037-260040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
QUAY
OKC139-260040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
TXC011-045-065-069-075-087-111-117-129-179-191-195-205-211-233-
341-357-359-375-381-393-421-437-483-260040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON
WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 626
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N STC TO
45 SW DLH TO 25 W DLH TO 40 WSW HIB.
..WEINMAN..08/25/26
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-017-025-031-059-065-075-115-137-252340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN CARLTON CHISAGO
COOK ISANTI KANABEC
LAKE PINE ST. LOUIS
WIC003-005-007-013-031-095-107-113-129-252340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
BURNETT DOUGLAS POLK
RUSK SAWYER WASHBURN
LSZ121-140-141-142-143-144-145-146-147-148-150-162-252340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MD 2132 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into far western
Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 252324Z - 260100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some threat exists for severe wind and hail with ongoing
storms. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells/supercells have matured over
eastern CO over the past few hours as upslope flow of a moistened
and heated airmass has encouraged relatively robust but sparse
convective initiation. These storms are benefiting from 7+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates and accompanying 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, as
well as 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Given relatively limited
shear and flow, storms are expected to remain relatively sparse and
slow moving. Severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms,
but it is currently unclear how widespread severe coverage will be.
Nonetheless, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the
need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37910480 38790385 39200301 39320230 39130173 38750154
38230150 37680164 37280211 37190286 37230379 37340453
37910480
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the
central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also
possible across portions of the Upper Midwest. Severe wind gusts and
large hail are the primary hazards.
...20z Update...
...Central High Plains...
The 15% wind/hail probability areas (and the corresponding Level
2/Slight Risk area) were shifted westward with this outlook update
based on the latest HRRR/RRFS and time-lagged ensemble guidance that
suggest greater storm coverage is more likely from the southern
Nebraska Panhandle into northeastern Colorado, southwestern
Nebraska, and northwestern Kansas. The eastern extent of these
probabilities was also trimmed across portions of south-central
Nebraska and north-central Kansas where recent guidance is more
suggestive of lower storm coverage.
Elsewhere, the forecast remains generally on track with only minor
changes made to the existing outlook. See the discussion below and
MCD 2127 for additional details.
..Chalmers/Thornton.. 08/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026/
...Central/Southern Plains...
A prominent mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over NM with
a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge. A lead vorticity
max associated with morning showers/thunderstorms over western KS
will continue slowly east-southeastward while an upstream
disturbance over central CO moves into the central High Plains by
late afternoon. In the low levels, a cold front extending
southwestward from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains
will undergo frontolysis across the central High Plains. Farther
south, a stationary boundary sagging southward to near I-40 in the
TX Panhandle will extend east-northeast into north-central OK.
North of the TX-OK boundary, a moisture plume with slightly richer
low-level moisture analyzed this morning protrudes westward from
north-central OK into the High Plains.
Weak ascent associated with the disturbance moving into the High
Plains later this afternoon combined with very strong heating will
favor isolated to widely scattered initial storm development over
the High Plains, particularly near the Raton Mesa where upslope flow
is expected. Models generally show moderate buoyancy developing by
mid afternoon with the stronger mid to high-level flow across
western NE and decreasing with south extent. Supercells will be
favored initially over parts of western NE with an attendant hail
risk and with some clustering possible during the evening
(severe-wind hazard). Farther south, have upgraded to 30-percent
wind probabilities due primarily to increased confidence in a
focused severe-wind threat forecast across the TX Panhandle late
this afternoon through the evening. There is seemingly large model
agreement/notable consistency in 00z and 12z AI and CAM ensembles,
and time-lagged CAM explicit wind guidance and depictions of a
linear mode within a very well mixed boundary layer which will be
favorable for severe gusts (60-85 mph).
...Eastern Minnesota/Western Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan...
A mid-level shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level westerly
jet) will dig southeastward from southern Manitoba toward northern
MN and Lake Superior through the period. An adequately moist and
destabilizing airmass will develop immediately ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front by mid/late afternoon. Models show a
narrow zone of around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across the eastern half
of MN/far northwest WI ahead of the front by late afternoon. Some
supercells will be possible initially, aside from more prevalent
multicells/clusters. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to
be the primary hazards before storms gradually weaken during the
evening.
...Southeast...
While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are expected to
remain weak, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will exist
along/south of a stalled front across the Southeast today. As
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon,
isolated pulse-type thunderstorms capable of producing water-loaded
downdrafts and perhaps localized wind damage via 50-60 mph gusts.
See MCD #2125 for short-term details regarding a potential isolated
wind damage threat developing early this afternoon.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or
two may accompany these storms.
...Ohio Valley into the Northeast...
Modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the region to
the east of the upper trough axis oriented from the Great Lakes to
TN Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a front will develop
east/southeast across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes through
the period. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface boundary
will maintain 60s F dewpoints, supporting weak to moderate
destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley toward the Hudson Valley
(decreasing across New England). Scattered thunderstorm development
is expected during the afternoon and continuing through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest supercells will be possible, with an
accompanying risk of damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado or
two where backed low-level winds persist.
Scattered thunderstorm clusters are expected with southwest extent
into southern OH/eastern KY/WV/VA as several shortwave impulses/MCVs
migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern to central
Appalachians. Vertical shear will be weaker further south, but a
moist and unstable airmass could support strong wet microbursts.
...Central High Plains...
The amplified upper ridge will develop eastward toward the High
Plains on Thursday. Low-level moisture will be more limited across
eastern CO/NM and vicinity. However, southeasterly low-level flow
near a surface boundary will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints across portions of NE toward the Black Hills in SD.
Isolated storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills and
within the low-level warm advection regime with southeast extent
into NE. Supercell wind profiles suggest strong outflow winds and
large hail (some possibly 2+ inch diameter) will be possible. Storm
coverage with southward extent is uncertain, but will maintain the
Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for now given a conditionally
supportive environment.
..Leitman.. 08/25/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was expanded slightly eastward to
include more of western Montana based on the latest guidance.
HREF/REFS depict 50-60% probabilities of thunderstorms across
southwest Montana into the Yellowstone Country on Day 2/Wednesday.
Forecast soundings depict a dry sub-cloud layer, sufficient
instability, and 20-30 kt LCL-EL winds indicating limited
precipitation efficiency. A recently receptive fuelscape with active
fires within the higher terrain warrant an expansion of dry
thunderstorm highlights where lightning ignitions are possible. The
rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion
for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough impinging upon the Pacific Northwest will
usher in increasing southwesterly flow and dry conditions to
portions of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. The
trough and afternoon destabilization will also bring a dry
thunderstorm threat to the portions of the northern Rockies
Wednesday afternoon. Farther south, an offshore pressure gradient
becomes established this evening and overnight hours leading to fire
weather concerns across portions of southern CA.
...Northern Rockies into northern Washington...
The upper-level trough nearing the Pacific Northwest will boost
southwest flow aloft while residual monsoon moisture lingers across
the northern Rockies. Daytime instability over complex topography in
addition to diffuse forcing for ascent will likely bring a broad
area of isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms to the
northern Rockies in western MT and northern ID as well as across
northern WA. PWAT values will generally be below 0.80" while a dry,
sub-cloud boundary layer and high surface dew point depressions
inhibit rainfall accumulations. Fuels remain receptive with new
ignitions possible Wednesday afternoon from this thunderstorm
activity.
...Columbia Basin southward towards the northern Great Basin and
Northeastern California...
Increasingly dry southwest flow as deeper monsoon moisture pushes
eastward is expected to bring elevated fire weather concerns to much
of the Interior Northwest and northern Sierra Nevada Wednesday. An
evolving well-mixed and dry boundary layer by peak afternoon heating
will support enhanced southwest winds at the surface of around 15
mph. These winds coupled with RH as low as 10 percent amid dry fuels
will promote elevated fire weather conditions across the region. A
locally critical fire weather concern may emerge across northeastern
CA into southeastern OR where sustained southwest winds of 20 mph
may occur at times.
...Southern California...
A multi-day elevated fire weather threat will continue for portions
of southern CA late Wednesday into early Thursday morning as
offshore/sundowner winds develop with supportive surface high
pressure across the Great Basin. Offshore winds of 15-25 mph are
expected in favored terrain and downslope regions as RH falls to as
low as 15 percent beginning Wednesday evening into early Thursday
morning. Elevated highlights were introduced into portions of
LA/Ventura/Santa Barbara counties.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will gradually translate eastward into the northern
Plains as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses through the
Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Thursday. Meanwhile, large-scale ascent
will overspread the Northern Rockies into central Montana, promoting
thunderstorm potential where dry fuels exist. A cold front will
sweep across the Columbia Basin, bringing strong winds and modestly
low RH values to a drought-stressed environment with numerous
ongoing wildfires on Day 3/Thursday. Strong southwest-westerly flow
will continue across the northwestern CONUS into the weekend, with
embedded disturbances within persistent upper troughing and along
the northern periphery of the flattening ridge. Long term guidance
suggests a secondary shortwave trough could enter the Northwest and
contribute to the breakdown of the upper ridge atop the Four Corners
this weekend. As a result of the upper pattern, fire weather
concerns will likely continue through the forecast period across the
parts of the Northwest, Great Basin and Northern Rockies. However,
low predictability and poor agreement among ensemble clusters
precludes additional probabilities beyond Day 5/Saturday.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The arrival of the next upper-level wave will bring additional
opportunities for afternoon thunderstorms across portions of the
Northern Rockies and Montana plains on Day 3/Thursday. A dry
boundary layer and fast storm motions will favor evaporation and
less precipitation efficiency, raising concerns for
lightning-induced ignitions within an increasingly receptive
fuelscape. 10% Dry Thunderstorm probabilities were introduced on Day
3/Thursday, though may need to be confined in future outlooks where
multiple days of an overlapping thunderstorm threat could increase
recoveries.
...Northwest, Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies...
A drier southwest flow pattern will bring a multi-day fire weather
threat to portions of the northwestern U.S., with fire weather
concerns extending eastward into the Montana plains later this week.
40% Critical probabilities have been maintained with minor
adjustments for Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday, and introduced across
north/central Montana on Day 4/Friday. West to southwest winds of
15-20 mph and afternoon relative humidity between 15-20 percent will
bring daily elevated fire weather concerns, potentially impacting
nascent wildfires born from thunderstorm activity early in the
forecast period. Critical fire weather conditions with winds of 20+
mph are likely but only in localized areas, particularly from
northeastern CA into far northwestern NV and southeastern OR on Day
3/Thursday.
...Southern California...
Above average daytime temperatures and poor humidity recoveries are
forecast across portions of southern California through the
week/early weekend. Offshore flow will present overnight/early
morning periods of gusty winds and critically low RH values in Santa
Barbara/Ventura/LA counties amid very dry fuels, raising concerns
for locally elevated fire weather conditions. As such, 40% Critical
probabilities were introduced on Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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