Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected Saturday or Saturday night.

...Discussion...

An initial, full-latitude trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast
to fracture into a more progressive polar air stream over the
Northeast and a cut-off low along the Carolina Coast. At the
surface, a cold front will move through the FL Peninsula, while an
expansive ridge of high pressure stretches from the southern Plains
into the Northeast. 

A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to develop
ahead of the front in FL by afternoon, contributing to diurnally
enhanced thunderstorm development. While locally gusty winds are
possible with the strongest storms, poor midlevel lapse rates and
displacement of stronger vertical shear to the north of the surface
warm sector are expected to limit severe weather potential.

Elsewhere, an upper low will approach the southern CA and northern
Baja Coasts with a few elevated thunderstorms possible over the
lower Colorado Valley within a zone of midlevel moistening and
ascent downstream from that feature.

..Mead.. 10/15/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The primary upper-air feature of interest is an amplifying trough,
which will evolve into a closed low along the West Coast Monday
night into Tuesday/Days 5 and 6. Thereafter, 00Z deterministic and
ensemble guidance indicates the midlevel system will shift east into
the Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley with an associated belt of
stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Rockies and
potentially central and southern High Plains by Thursday/Day 8. In
the low levels, surface ridging is forecast to persist from the
Northeast into the southern Plains into at least early next week,
which will slow the return of moisture from off the Gulf into the
Great Plains.

...Days 4 through 6/Sunday through Tuesday...

A few strong thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the
lower Colorado Valley into the Four Corners and southern Rockies,
especially on Tuesday. However, instability currently appears too
weak to support a severe weather threat.


...Days 7 and 8/Wednesday through Thursday...

While particular details regarding location and intensity of the
midlevel trough/low remain uncertain, there is some ensemble signal
that a favorable overlap of stronger vertical shear and at least
modest instability could materialize over the southern Rockies,
where a few strong to severe storms may occur. At least an isolated
severe weather threat could spread from the southern Rockies into
the adjacent High Plains by Thursday on the condition that
sufficient low-level moistening/destabilization occurs along and to
the east of a surface lee trough.