WW 192 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 081950Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Kansas
Much of Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop
this afternoon. The stronger storms will likely evolve into
supercells capable of a risk for large hail (mainly 1 to 2 inches in
diameter) and severe gusts. Upscale growth into a band of storms is
expected by this evening with the risk for severe gusts expected to
increase. Peak gusts with the stronger outflow surges will probably
range 60 to 75 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast
of Bartlesville OK to 20 miles south southeast of Wichita Falls TX.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Smith
WW 0192 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 192
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CSM
TO 5 ESE PNC TO 15 NW CNU.
..THORNTON..05/08/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 192
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC019-021-037-099-125-133-205-082340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON
OKC005-013-015-017-019-021-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-049-051-
063-067-069-073-075-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-101-103-105-
107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-137-141-143-145-
147-149-082340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CADDO
CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE
CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE
COTTON CRAIG CREEK
DELAWARE GARVIN GRADY
HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
MD 0674 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0674
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192...
Valid 082215Z - 090015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192
continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for large to very large hail continues across
portions of central and eastern Oklahoma.
DISCUSSION...Supercells continue to increase in coverage along the
cold front sagging southward into central/eastern Oklahoma. Hail up
to 2.75 inches and winds gusts to 60 mph have been reported with the
northern cells in Osage County. Supercells will continue eastward in
the Oklahoma City Metro and Tulsa Metro this evening. The
environment downstream remains very favorable for large hail (1.5-2+
inches) with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and moderate MLCAPE.
This has been well sampled in the 20z RAOB from OUN, where lapse
rates around 7 C/km extend through the profile and 45 kts of 0-6 km
shear. Given dew point depressions around 20-25 F, the threat for
damaging wind will continue, possibly increasing into the evening as
cells cluster and tend to grow upscale.
..Thornton.. 05/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35609889 36119795 36699674 36839626 36749573 35989515
35419518 34419580 34169625 33989708 34029764 34039853
34169889 34429898 34689911 35059921 35609889
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas this afternoon into tonight. More sparse
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the
Ozarks, central and south Texas, and the Gulf Coast states.
...20z Update...
The forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments
made based on recent convective trends and latest high-res guidance.
...Northern FL and southern AL/GA...
5% wind and hail probabilities were both expanded across the FL
Panhandle/northern FL into adjacent portions of southern AL and GA
ahead of a persistent strong thunderstorms. This cell has shown
signs of period intensification to severe levels, and a downstream
18z JAX sounding sampled adequate buoyancy within a MUCAPE gradient
for storm maintenance, as well as very strong (57 knot) effective
bulk shear that may support additional periods of intensification
through late afternoon (see MCD #671 for additional details).
...Southern MS/AL...
Minor expansions of the 5% hail/wind contours were made across
portions of southern MS and southwest AL. Elevated convection
developing across northern LA will likely spread east/southeast
during the 09-12 UTC period, and may pose a risk of large hail and
perhaps damaging gusts. While clustered storm modes will likely
modulate the overall severe threat, sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer
wind shear should be in place to support a few stronger cells.
...Oklahoma...
The early stages of convective initiation are well underway across
north-central OK with a more expansive cumulus field noted across
northwest OK ahead of a cold front (see MCD # 670 for additional
short-term details). Recent high-res solutions (notably recent runs
of the HRRR) compare reasonably well these convective trends and to
a recent 19 UTC OUN RAOB. This lends reasonably high confidence in
the evolution of the severe hail and wind threat across central to
north/northeast OK through mid-evening. Although the greatest severe
risk will likely materialize along and north of the I-44 corridor
over the next several hours, the somewhat marginal thermodynamic
environment and widely scattered convective signal in guidance
sufficiently limited confidence for higher risk (namely 30% hail)
probabilities. However, slight expansions of the 5% and Intensity
Level 1 hail contours were made to account for recent observed
trends.
..Moore.. 05/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026/
...Central Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows the northern
periphery of stratus and stratocumulus across southwest OK and a
more extensive stratus field over central and north TX. These
clouds generally coincide with surface observations and GPS PW of
richer moisture returning northward ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough over western KS that is forecast to move southeastward into
southeast KS and OK by early evening. Strong heating ahead of a
southeastward-moving cold front and 50s dewpoints will yield MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to
indicate initial cellular activity evolving into a band of storms
along the front and pushing south-southeast this evening. Forecast
soundings will support supercells early before coalescing cold pools
promote upscale growth into a linear cluster. Supercell development
will subsequently favor anchoring updrafts on the southwest extent
of the developing convection. Severe gusts along with some
lingering hail risk will probably continue into the late evening and
overnight but diminish in overall magnitude/coverage of severe as
this activity moves into north TX and the Arklatex.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. A mix of hail/wind will be possible with
the stronger thunderstorms.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging
winds appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of Texas
into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will continue advancing southeastward
Sunday from the central Plains into the southern Plains and lower MS
Valley. While west-northwesterly mid-level flow is not forecast to
be overly strong with this feature (around 30-45 kt), there should
be sufficient effective bulk shear to support organized convection.
At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift southeastward
across these regions through the day, with a seasonably moist
low-level airmass in place ahead of it. Daytime heating of this
airmass and the presence of at least modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates (particularly across TX) should support the development
of moderate to strong instability along/ahead of the front by early
Sunday afternoon.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of central/eastern OK at
the start of the period, with an isolated severe threat possible.
Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to
develop along much of the length of the cold front from west TX
northeastward into southeast OK and the ArkLaTex by mid afternoon as
large-scale ascent attendant to the mid-level shortwave trough
overspreads the destabilizing warm sector. While somewhat stronger
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear may tend to remain
mostly displaced to the north of the cold front, initial multicell
clusters and embedded supercells will likely pose a threat for both
large hail and severe/damaging winds. With time, a consolidation
into one or more bowing clusters should occur, with a greater risk
for damaging winds, particularly across parts of central into
northeast TX. The Slight Risk has been expanded to account for where
confidence is greatest in scattered to potentially numerous
severe/damaging winds being realized with convection Sunday
afternoon and evening.
Farther east into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, confidence in
organized severe convection remains somewhat lower, mainly due to
uncertainty regarding sufficient instability/destabilization ahead
of the front. Any cells/clusters that can form and spread
east-southeastward could pose an isolated threat for hail and
damaging winds. The Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward and
combined with the previously separate risk area across the Gulf
Coast, where isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur
along various sea breezes.
..Gleason.. 05/08/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Northern Plains...
A northwest flow pattern will persist over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest Saturday. Dry, post-frontal winds of around 15 mph and
critically dry fuels will align support an elevated fire weather
threat across portions of the Northern Plains. Although widespread
RH reductions of 20% or below are unlikely along with slightly
cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, the receptive
fuelscape (supporting recent fire activity) will still yield a
wildfire spread concern. Introduced Elevated Highlights into far
northeastern MT and western ND to account for this threat.
...Colorado River Basin...
A building upper ridge across the western U.S. will support above
normal temperatures and dry conditions west of the Continental
Divide through the weekend. A deep and very dry boundary layer
across the Desert Southwest and Colorado River Basin will promote
surface RH reductions of 5-15% by peak afternoon mixing amid
westerly to northwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph. However, fuels
remain marginal after recent widespread rainfall limiting a broader
fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 05/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
No fire-weather highlights are forecast for Saturday.
Generally, there will be a lack of overlap between receptive fuels
and strong/dry surface winds across much of the U.S., especially
with some recent wetting rainfall across the Central/Southern Plains
and eastward. There is some signal for 15-20 MPH winds in a
post-frontal airmass across the Dakotas, but surface relative
humidity is currently forecast to largely remain at or above 30%.
Still, given the critically dry fuels across the Northern Plains,
this area could include Elevated highlights in future updates.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
Larger scale upper-level troughing will likely remain anchored over
the eastern U.S. at least through the middle of next week. Farther
west, upper-level ridging and associated warm and dry surface
conditions will continue well into next week, aiding in drying fuels
west of the Continental Divide. An embedded short wave at the apex
of the broader ridge axis and surface trough development across
portions of northern High Plains should present a fire weather
concern for portions of the northern High Plains on Day 4/Monday.
Longer term ensemble guidance suggests a more progressive wave
pattern emerging for the latter half of next week with ridging
shifting into the central U.S. while with another upper-level
entering the Pacific Northwest as early as Day 6/Wednesday,
potentially bringing breezy and dry conditions to much of the Great
Basin as well as high based convection to portions of the CO River
Basin.
...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday - Northern High Plains into Upper
Midwest...
An upper-level short wave and associated surface lee troughing
across the Dakotas should promote breezy west/northwest winds of up
to 20 mph to much of eastern MT into western ND on Day 4/Monday.
Lack of recent significant rainfall has aided in drying fuels across
the Northern Plains. The dry and breezy conditions along with
receptive fuels supports introduction of 40% critical probabilities
into eastern MT and far western ND. The fire weather threat shifts
eastward into the Upper Midwest for Day 5/Tuesday as a surface low
deepens and moves into the Great Lakes region. However, preceding
precipitation may limit impact of dry, post frontal conditions
across this region.
...Day 6/Wednesday - Colorado River Basin and Great Basin...
Several days of anomalously warm temperatures and low RH will aid in
drying fuels across the western U.S. before the next upper-trough
impinges on the Pacific Northwest as early as Day 5/Tuesday.
Increasing south to southwest flow ahead of the trough should
support an increasing fire weather threat to portions of the Great
Basin and Desert Southwest. In addition, mid to upper-level Pacific
moisture within a supportive upper-level environment could bring
some high-based showers and thunderstorms to portions of the CO
River Basin and eastern Great Basin Day 6/Wednesday. However,
forecast uncertainty remains in timing of the next trough which
precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 05/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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