Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast
today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A split upper-flow regime over the CONUS will continue through
tonight.  Zonal, high momentum flow will extend from the base of a
trough/upper low near Baja California east-northeastward across the
Ark-La-Miss and through the Mid-Atlantic region.  Visible-satellite
imagery and buoy/surface observations show a cold front draped from
the western part of the Gulf of America northeastward into the FL
Panhandle and far southern GA.  Occasional weak elevated
thunderstorms are possible through the day north of the boundary
from the mouth of the MS River into southern GA.  A small area for a
stronger thunderstorm may develop this afternoon from the FL Big
Bend into extreme southern GA immediately along and south of the
front.  However, weak convergence and lack of appreciable forcing
for ascent near the boundary will likely constrain thunderstorm
activity to isolated coverage and limit intensity, despite some
diurnal increase in buoyancy and the presence of strong mid- to
upper flow.

..Smith/Wendt.. 12/05/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward across the Mid-South on Saturday, and then move
offshore of the Carolinas by early Sunday morning. Upstream, a
midlevel shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move
southeastward from the northern High Plains toward the mid MS
Valley. 

Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential
across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Weak convection and possibly
isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the
FL Peninsula, in the vicinity of a weakening front. Late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning, thunderstorms may develop near the
central Gulf Coast vicinity, north of an offshore front that is
expected to slowly move northward late in the period. Where
thunderstorms occur, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy
are expected to limit organized-severe potential through the period.

..Dean.. 12/05/2025

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 051700Z - 061200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Weak lee troughing
development across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough
ejects into the Great Plains will promote a favorable dry, downslope
environment across portions of eastern NM and TX Permian Basin
today. West-northwest winds of 15 mph combined with relative
humidity in the 15-20% range are expected, but recent precipitation,
relatively cool conditions and unreceptive fuels should limit
broader fire weather concerns.

..Williams.. 12/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. A period of westerly downslope flow can be expected across
eastern New Mexico into western Texas as a weak lee-side low
develops. Some overlap of relative humidity reductions around 15-20
percent will be possible for a couple of hours in the afternoon.
However, recent cool and wet conditions across the southern High
Plains have improved status of fuels and will mitigate any
widespread fire weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...