WW 515 SEVERE TSTM IA MN 260100Z - 260700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
800 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Iowa
Southwest Minnesota
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 800 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over southeast South Dakota
will continue to track east-southeastward through the evening.
Severe wind gusts are expected with the more intense cells, and the
potential exists for significant wind damage if the thunderstorms
can become better organized.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of
Worthington MN to 15 miles east of Mason City IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513...WW 514...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28035.
...Hart
WW 514 SEVERE TSTM MT 252050Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern into Central and Eastern Montana
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to intensify this
afternoon and move east across the Watch area through the evening.
The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of a risk for mainly
severe gusts 60 to 80 mph. A transition from mainly cells to a
small thunderstorm cluster will probably occur during the evening.
A localized threat for marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger thunderstorm cores this afternoon.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest
of Bozeman MT to 130 miles east northeast of Billings MT. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Smith
WW 513 SEVERE TSTM SD 252035Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 100
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to intensify this afternoon and
become severe with an initial threat for isolated large hail and
severe gusts. As additional storms form and cold pools coalesce, a
linear cluster of severe thunderstorms is expected to organize in
central and eastern South Dakota by the early evening. A
severe-wind squall line with widespread severe gusts is forecast and
peak gusts 85 to 100 mph are likely.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Philip SD to 20 miles southeast of Brookings SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 85 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
28040.
...Smith
WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW COD TO
30 SSE 3HT TO 20 NNE MLS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
..SQUITIERI..07/26/26
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 514
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-009-087-095-103-111-260240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN CARBON ROSEBUD
STILLWATER TREASURE YELLOWSTONE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0513 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0513 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 1737 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0834 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of southern Montana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...
Valid 260134Z - 260300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514
continues.
SUMMARY...A few severe gusts remain possible through the evening
hours.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have shown a slight decreasing trend in
overall coverage and intensity over the past hour. Nonetheless, a
few intense convective cells remain in progress, particularly over
Stillwater County, MT. Surface temperatures range from 90-100 F
ahead of the ongoing storms, suggesting that a well-mixed boundary
layer remains in place to support a few more potentially severe
gusts with the stronger storm cores. However, the severe threat
should gradually subside in a few hours with the onset of nocturnal
cooling.
..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...
LAT...LON 45150798 45160868 45340891 45570925 45700940 45810945
45950948 46140945 46620798 46750707 46540648 46140635
45640661 45270731 45150798
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MD 1736 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1736
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Areas affected...Southwest/South-Central
Minnesota...Northwest/North-Central Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 260045Z - 260245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Threat for severe gusts up to 90 mph and large hail around
1 inch in diameter will persist across southwest/south-central
Minnesota and northwest/north-central Iowa this evening. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will be issued downstream to cover these
convective hazards.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective cluster continues to progress
eastward across southeast South Dakota at around 35 kt. This speed
has been fairly stead over the past hour or so, suggesting the line
has not intensified. Even so, several severe gusts have been
measured, including 70 mph in Douglas County. A recent increase in
echo tops near the center of the line suggests some additional
strengthening may be underway. Given the ample low-level moisture
downstream (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 70s/low 80s) and extreme
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg) this strengthening would
likely continue, with an attendant threat for severe wind gusts
across southwest/south-central Minnesota and northwest/north-central
Iowa. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will be issued downstream to cover these
convective hazards.
..Mosier/Hart.. 07/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 44519654 44859537 44849450 44419352 43629348 42919382
42619444 42619526 42769637 43589676 44519654
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHERN IA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN MT...
...SUMMARY...
Severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) remain possible this
evening from eastern South Dakota into northern Iowa and southwest
Minnesota. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts also remain
possible across parts of Montana.
...SD into southern MN/northern IA/far northeast NE...
A loosely organized storm cluster is moving across eastern SD this
evening. Additional intensification remains possible this evening,
as this cluster encounters extreme downstream buoyancy, with MLCAPE
of 4000-5000 J/kg within a very moist (dewpoints around 80 F)
environment. The ongoing cluster has produced measured gusts of
60-80 mph, so any notable intensification could lead to an increase
in potential for gusts in the 75-90 mph range. Isolated hail and
perhaps a tornado also remain possible through dusk with this
cluster. Increasing CINH with time and eastward extent should
eventually result in a weakening trend later tonight, though an
organized severe threat could eventually approach parts of southeast
MN/northeast IA into northwest IL overnight.
Farther northwest, a separate storm cluster is moving across
north-central SD, within a similarly favorable environment. In the
short term, this cluster may continue to move east-southeastward
along a surface boundary with a continued severe-wind threat.
Eventually, weakening buoyancy in the wake of the southeast SD
cluster will tend to result in a weakening trend with this cluster.
...Central/eastern Montana...
Strong to locally severe storms may persist through dusk across
parts of central/eastern MT, within a well-mixed environment that is
favorable for severe-wind potential. Increasing CINH will result in
an eventual weakening trend later tonight, though remnant outflows
may still produce strong to locally severe gusts as storms diminish.
...Southern AZ...
Widely scattered storms and increasing outflow may continue to
support strong to localized severe gusts within a very hot and
well-mixed environment across parts of southern AZ. Weak deep-layer
flow/shear should keep any remaining threat generally disorganized.
..Dean.. 07/26/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will continue to impinge of the Pacific
Northwest with the main upper low/trough remaining offshore.
However, mid-level shortwave troughs will occasionally rotate
through the southwest flow aloft. An upper high will reside over the
southern High Plains/vicinity before slowly shifting back to the
west with upper-level ridging forecast to build over much of the
West late in the outlook period. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms
remain likely across the Four Corners region, but a slight drying
trend is possible.
...Northwestern US...
Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected on Day 3/Monday
across portions of northwestern US. If stronger flow aloft remains
over enough of this region and deeper mixing becomes more likely
across a broader area, an expansion of 40% probabilities will be
warranted. Somewhat weaker upper-level flow beyond Day 3/Monday and
overall forecast uncertainty regarding the interplay of the
upper-level troughing in the Pacific Northwest/vicinity and the
upper-level ridge over the Plains and much of the Intermountain West
has precluded additional critical probabilities through Day
6/Thursday. Extended guidance and cluster analysis exhibits the
potential for the offshore troughing to move inland across the
Pacific Northwest, once again bringing dry and breezy conditions to
the region next weekend. Critical probabilities will be withheld
until predictability increases, but may be needed in future outlook
cycles as the upper pattern is better resolved.
...Southern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely to develop across
portions of the southern High Plains through the workweek. Recent
fuel intel implies the environment is still quite mixed, with some
localized areas more receptive than others. Aforementioned
meteorological conditions for several consecutive days will likely
contribute to further drying the fuelscape; trends will be monitored
closely for the inclusion of probabilities in future outlooks.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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