Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of
the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may
develop this afternoon and evening, the threat of organized severe
thunderstorms appears low.

...Southeast...
A southward-advancing cold front is decelerating this morning across
the FL Panhandle and southeastern GA. This front is expected to
stall across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level
shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery moves eastward
across the Southeast. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
is underway ahead of the front, as low-level clouds have eroded
across much of the FL Peninsula this morning. Relatively modest
lapse rates should hinder the development of MLCAPE exceeding 1000
J/kg. Furthermore, low-level convergence along the front is expected
to remain limited. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should eventually develop this afternoon into the evening, focused
across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula along and south of
the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds may
occur, especially along/near the eastern FL coast, the weak
instability, modest lapse rates aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear
all suggest that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms should
remain low today.

..Jirak.. 02/27/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Florida Peninsula Saturday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms
are also anticipated across portions of northern California into
Oregon and Nevada as well as Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau.

...Synopsis...
A broad northwest flow regime is expected to persist across the
CONUS through Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will largely be focused
in proximity to a pair of embedded upper-level shortwave troughs
over the eastern Gulf and off the northern CA coast. At the surface,
a cold front associated with an intensifying cyclone over the
Canadian Prairies will push south and east across the Plains and
Midwest over the next 36-48 hours, eventually stalling across OK and
the Ozark Plateau late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Weak
ascent along this frontal zone will promote isolated thunderstorm
chances. 

...Florida...
Mid-morning surface observations depict a cold front drifting
southeast into the northern Gulf and Southeast. This feature is
expected to gradually migrate southward over the next 48 hours as
surface high pressure builds across the Southeast. However, gradual
frontolysis is expected, which will help maintain the moist air mass
building across southern to central FL, where dewpoints have
increased to the upper 60s and low 70s. An upper wave over the
northern Gulf will overspread the FL Peninsula around peak heating
Saturday. Modest broad-scale ascent within a moist, weakly capped,
and fairly unstable (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass should promote
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. 30-40 knot mid-level flow
attendant to the upper wave will allow for adequate hodograph
elongation for organized thunderstorms capable of severe hail and
damaging winds. Diminishing low-level convergence along the frontal
zone casts uncertainty on overall storm coverage, but most 12z CAMs
and global guidance show a consistent QPF signal along the
southeastern FL coast where localized sea-breeze convergence/ascent
may increase thunderstorm chances.

....Northern California and adjacent states...
A low-amplitude upper disturbance is noted in morning water-vapor
imagery well off the northern CA coast approaching the crest of the
longwave ridge. This feature will begin moving inland across
northern CA by late Saturday morning, reaching the western Great
Basin by evening/overnight. An influx of moisture from the Pacific
will support deep moistening of profiles across the region. This,
combined with steepening lapse rates/cooling temperatures aloft,
will support favorable buoyancy for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. MUCAPE is forecast to generally be near/below 250
J/kg, but pockets of higher buoyancy (closer to 500 J/kg) appear
possible based on recent CAMs, which may support storms capable of
small hail and gusty winds.

....Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau...
Surface high pressure currently positioned over the Texarkana region
will migrate east/southeast over the next 24 hours in the wake of
the ongoing frontal passage into the northern Gulf/Southeast.
Southerly flow on the western periphery of this high, coupled with
modest lee troughing along the High Plains, will promote modest
moisture return through Saturday evening. Isolated showers and weak
thunderstorms appear possible Saturday afternoon within the
low-level warm advection regime with a slight uptick in convection
anticipated late evening/overnight as the approaching cold front
settles into the region. Model consensus suggests buoyancy profiles
will be too limited to support intense convection.

..Moore.. 02/27/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

...Morning Update...
Changes were made to the previous forecast to extend the Elevated
fire risk along the southern Colorado Front Range. This morning, low
RH values of 10-20% are present in the lee of the Rockies with
sporadic gusts up to 40 mph extending to the Laramie Range. As the
area approaches peak heating, deep mixing coupled with westerly
downslope flow will support sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and
terrain-induced isolated gusts of 35-45 mph, supporting Elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. In central
to east-central New Mexico, sustained winds are forecast to be much
lighter than previous days. This morning, a few gusts of 20-30 mph
were observed in Albuquerque and east of the Sandia Manzano
Mountains. RH is expected to drop to 10-20% for a few hours this
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. These conditions
overlapping dry fuels should support Elevated Fire Weather
conditions today. 

For parts of the northern Missouri Valley into the Corn Belt and
Midwest, locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a
few hours this afternoon. Morning surface RH values are gradually
dropping between 30-40% and will likely decrease to 20-30% by peak
heating. Ahead of an advancing cold front, broad sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph are expected, possibly
up to 30 mph in a localized area of northeastern Nebraska and
northwestern Iowa. Given recent precipitation across the region,
sporadic fine fuels may be receptive to fire, keeping fire weather
concerns fairly localized. See the previous discussion for more
information.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Wendt.. 02/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS with
northwesterly mid-level flow downstream of this feature. This will
support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of a southward surging cold front.

...Portions of eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and the
Nebraska Panhandle...
Strong northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will lead to the
enhancement of lee troughing across the central and northern High
Plains as high pressure builds to the West. This will support a
strong cross-terrain pressure gradient that will yield dry downslope
flow in the lee of the central Rockies and Laramie Range, with
sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and isolated gusts of 35-45 mph
expected (locally higher in terrain-favored areas). Deep, boundary
layer mixing coupled with the dry downslope flow will simultaneously
favor afternoon RH values falling into the 15-20% range (locally as
low as 10%). With multiple days of strong, dry downslope winds
preceding D1/Friday, fuels are expected to be receptive to fire.
Given these factors, elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions are likely for at least a few hours across portions of
eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southward toward the
Palmer Divide this afternoon. 

...Portions of central into east-central New Mexico...
Lower RH values of 10-15% are likely to extend farther south into
portions of southeastern New Mexico and western Texas; however,
winds are expected to remain light. The one exception will be across
portions of central into east-central New Mexico where a band of
modest northwesterly mid-level flow will support dry, downslope
winds in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains. Sustained westerly
surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap very low RH
values of 10-20% for at least a few hours this afternoon. Given
warm, dry antecedent conditions, this overlap is expected to support
Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.

...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
A southward advancing surface cold front will promote a strong
surface pressure gradient across portions of the northern Plains
into the western Corn Belt this afternoon. Widespread 20-30 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds ahead of this front are
expected to overlap RH values of 20-30%. Farther south and east,
lighter southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap RH
of 20-30% ahead of a surface pressure trough from southwestern
Missouri into western Illinois. Given that fuels are expected to be
only modestly receptive across the region, Elevated fire weather
concerns should remain localized.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...