No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 28 19:22:02 UTC 2026.MD 1368 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Areas affected...the Texas Panhandle into the Permian Basin and far
Southeast New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281920Z - 282145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts appear possible this afternoon
with pulse-type thunderstorms. The limited nature of the threat is
expected to preclude a watch.
DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite shows a growing cumulus field
across the TX South Plains, west-southwest of Lubbock. That
convection appears to be developing along the western edge of
stronger capping and within a deeply mixed boundary layer with
surface temperatures of around 100 F. Stronger instability resides
to the east with objective analysis indicating MLCAPE as high as
1500-2500 J/kg from the eastern TX Panhandle into the Low Rolling
Plains.
Continued daytime heating should allow for further convective
inhibition reduction from the west, which in turn will allow the
deepening convection to spread east into a progressively more
unstable environment. Vertical shear is expected to remain
relatively weak, which should limit the potential for organized
storm modes. Nonetheless, the presence of a moderately unstable
environment featuring a relatively deep, inverted-v boundary layer
will be supportive of isolated severe wind gusts with pulse-type
storms.
..Mead/Guyer.. 06/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33310325 34260276 35280213 36500107 36470042 35980008
33810125 32660200 32100262 32710342 33310325
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MD 1367 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND FAR EASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Carolinas and far eastern Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281850Z - 282045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across
portions of the Carolinas and far eastern Georgia. A watch is not
anticipated, though trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...A subtle mid-level wave is traversing generally weak
west-northwesterly flow across the southern Appalachians, leading to
a weak surface low pressure in central North Carolina. These are
serving as focuses for thunderstorm development this afternoon
across the Carolinas. Ahead of these storms, a very deep, moist air
mass is in place, with precipitable water values near or above 2 in
across the region, and this may contribute to a threat for damaging
gusts this afternoon due to water-loading in downdrafts. However,
generally westerly surface winds should result in weak convergence
and weak shear, leading to poorly-organized convection. As such,
damaging gusts are currently expected to remain too sporadic to
justify a watch, though trends will be monitored.
..Supinie/Guyer.. 06/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
FFC...
LAT...LON 35148338 36448019 36597898 36337802 36177741 35517683
34717734 33398026 33338203 33708278 34518358 34738362
35148338
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...CAROLINAS...AND A PART OF THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas.
Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.
Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts
of the Carolinas.
...Dakotas/northern Plains...
A belt of south-southwesterly mid-level flow near 50 kt will be
maintained from Colorado to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed
low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone
is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast Colorado this
afternoon and then progress northeastward across Nebraska/South
Dakota overnight.
A few storms will be possible in North Dakota during the afternoon
with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing, but the primary
regional severe risk is expected tonight. Much of the severe threat
will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone
into South Dakota as low-level moisture steadily spreads
west-northwestward. This increasing moisture and forcing for ascent
preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima
aloft) will likely support thunderstorm development overnight across
western South Dakota into southern North Dakota. The environment
will favor supercells, which will tend to be elevated, and small
thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A bowing cluster has weakened and tended to grow downscale this
morning but otherwise persists across eastern Iowa at midday. Some
redevelopment/re-intensification could occur on the cluster's
southern periphery near a warm front. However, this is highly
uncertain given the increasing mid-level capping/EML advection the
remainder of the night.
Later tonight, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused
across Wisconsin along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed
layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will
favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts
with mostly elevated storms tonight.
...Carolinas and far southern Virginia this afternoon/evening...
A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern
Appalachians will move southeastward into the Piedmont by this
afternoon. An airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2
inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds that
are more prevalent over western North Carolina. Steepening low-level
lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30
kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing
thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph
gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded
thunderstorm cores until around sunset.
...West Texas late this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline
will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon
through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V
profiles will yield isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.
..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/28/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also
occur.
...Synopsis...
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough, initially over the
northern Rockies, will eject east/northeast across the northern
Plains on Monday. This will bring a belt of enhanced mid/upper
south/southwesterly flow across parts of the northern/central Plains
to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over
SD and lift north/northeast through evening. A trailing cold
front/dryline will move across the Dakotas and portions of NE after
00z while a warm front lifts northward across parts of eastern ND
and northern MN through the day. A secondary lee surface low will
develop over the central High Plains, with a dryline extending
south/southwest across western KS into southwest TX.
...Dakotas/Mid-MO Valley/Upper Midwest...
Uncertainty over mesoscale details persists this forecast cycle,
though overall model guidance continues to show better agreement.
Convection appears likely to be ongoing Monday morning across the
central Dakotas near the deepening surface low and northward
extending frontal occlusion. This activity may be elevated, but
supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings with
elongated/straight hodographs noted amid 50+ kt effective shear
magnitudes. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place
across the region and elevated convection will pose a risk for large
to very large hail early in the day as storms move northward.
A very moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region,
with strong to extreme instability depicted in forecast guidance.
Convective evolution is uncertain. The extent of morning convection
could augment the northward extent of the richer boundary layer
moisture and instability. Guidance also varies in regards to the
evolution of the surface low, with some guidance being slower and
other solutions much faster. Nevertheless, the surface low/triple
point, warm front, and surface tough/cold front will be areas for
concern for convective development during the day and into the
afternoon. If supercells can develop and be surface-based near the
warm front, an all-hazards severe risk is evident given the very
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. While initial
supercells are possible during the evening along the cold front from
the Mid-MO Valley into southern MN, boundary-parallel deep-layer
flow and an intensifying low-level jet could result in rapid upscale
growth into a bowing segment during the nighttime hours. This could
result in an increase in damaging wind potential if nighttime
convection can be near-surface based.
...KS/OK/TX...
Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely during the
evening along the dryline. Instability and vertical shear will be
modest, limiting longevity of stronger updrafts. Nevertheless, a
deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles could support strong outflow gusts. Overall severe
potential appears limited, precluding marginal probabilities at this
time.
...Southeast...
Moderate instability will develop amid a seasonally moist airmass
near the Savannah River into GA Monday afternoon/early evening. A
backdoor/wedge front is expected to push south/southwest across SC
and may contribute to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
by peak heating within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime.
Vertical shear will be weak, but occasional sub-severe gusty
outflows will be possible, mainly across central/southern GA.
..Leitman.. 06/28/2026
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