Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across the central
Plains early this evening. 500mb speed max is forecast to translate
across KS into western TN by sunrise, and this feature may aid a
weak frontal wave and weak low-level warm advection along/north of
the synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings continue to depict weak
MUCAPE, but likely adequate for lightning discharge within stronger
elevated convection. Risk of severe is negligible the rest of
tonight.

..Darrow.. 02/26/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 051200Z

...Synopsis..
Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through the weekend
before an upper-level pattern change early next week. The current
pattern will prevail through Day 5/Sunday, aiding in continued
Elevated fire weather conditions in the Central and Southern Plains.
Day 6/Monday - Day 8/Wednesday, a transition to southwesterly flow
aloft in the Southwest and Southern Plains will evolve as a closed
low develops off the West Coast. Surface troughing and enhanced
southerly surface flow may bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains
region, limiting broader fire weather concerns in the extended
forecast period.

...Day 3/Friday - Southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle
and northeastern Colorado...
Strong mid-level flow and a coincident 700mb 40-50 kt jet may
support strong downslope winds and low RH in the lee of the Laramie
Range into the Central High Plains on Day 3/Friday. As the surface
trough strengthens across the northern High Plains, a tight pressure
gradient east of the Rockies will enhance westerly surface winds of
25-35 mph (gusts up to 50 mph near the Laramie Range) and decreased
RH values of 15-20% at peak heating. With multiple days of strong,
dry downslope winds preceding Day 3/Friday, fuels are likely to be
receptive to fire. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced
to account for this.

On Day 4/Saturday, mid-level flow slowly shifts zonal as surface
troughing pushes cooler air into the Central US while southerly flow
along the TX Gulf Coast advects moisture northward into the Southern
Plains. Dry fuels and a drought ridden landscape across the FL
Peninsula may heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered
thunderstorms pass through the region on Day 3/Friday and Day
4/Saturday. Areas that do not see sufficient rainfall may have
holdovers from potential lightning ignitions.

Some model spread exists on Day 5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday in the
overall extent of surface moisture return and southern expanse of
the backdoor cold front, but there is some concern for dry and gusty
surface winds across Eastern New Mexico ahead of the front. Given
these uncertainties, Critical probabilities have been withheld for
now.

By Day 7/Tuesday and Day 8/Wednesday, the frontal boundary should
weaken across Texas and redevelop northward allowing low-level
moisture to advect northward into the Central Plains. Considering
the overall resulting pattern, fire weather concerns appear fairly
minimal and localized through the extended forecast period.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...