No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 9 19:46:02 UTC 2026.MD 0368 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON
Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Areas affected...Portions of northern California into Southwest
Oregon
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 091904Z - 092100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail
will be possible this afternoon. Limited storm coverage and
intensity will likely preclude a watch.
DISCUSSION...As an upper low approaches the northern California
coast, an increase of mid-level ascent has led to deepening
convection within the terrain. Deep-layer southerly flow has
maintained moisture in the region and dewpoints have held in the
low/mid 50s F in some areas. Where the greatest heating can occur
(i.e., temperatures reaching into the low/mid 60s), MLCAPE of
500-750 J/kg can be expected. A few stronger cores have already
pulsed up and down in intensity. The expectation is for additional
storms, a couple strong to marginally severe, to form in the next
several hours. Weaker effective shear (25-30 kts) will likely limit
the overall severity of storms, however.
..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFR...STO...PQR...EKA...
LAT...LON 39652334 41852430 43252389 43652296 43602242 43272223
42862246 42302297 41412284 40892274 40202270 39812285
39652334
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0367 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Areas affected...north central into northeastern Kansas and adjacent
portions of southern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 091839Z - 092115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development accompanied by at
least increasing risk for large hail appears possible as early as
3-5 PM CDT. Trends are being monitored for a severe weather watch,
which probably will be needed at some point, but timing remains a
bit uncertain.
DISCUSSION...To the south of a stalled surface frontal zone near the
Kansas/Nebraska border vicinity into northern Missouri, forcing for
ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is
maintaining scattered weak elevated or high based thunderstorm
development. However, breaks in cloud cover are allowing for
sufficient insolation to contribute to destabilization, in the
presence of a still rather modestly moist, but slowly moistening,
boundary-layer.
Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting across
the high plains, stronger heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is
ongoing across western into central Kansas. Through mid to late
afternoon, it appears that a dryline may become better defined in
the vicinity of its intersection with the front, near Concordia KS,
south-southwestward.
As this occurs, it appears that strengthening low-level warm
advection will become focused near the nose of a persistent 30+ kt
southerly 850 mb jet, across and northeast of the surface
front/dryline intersection into southern Nebraska between Hastings
and Beatrice. Coinciding with destabilization including
mixed-layer/most unstable CAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg, it
appears that this will support the initiation of intensifying
thunderstorm development.
Based on latest model output, how far to the cool side side of the
surface front/dryline intersection and how soon remain a bit
unclear. However, it appears possible as early as the 20-22Z time
frame, in the presence of sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to
support supercell structures capable of producing large hail. For
any storm development rooted closer to the surface near the boundary
intersection, the potential for strong surface gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two would be more appreciable.
..Kerr/Gleason.. 04/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 40339864 40709707 40079587 39529537 38989683 38859917
40339864
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of
Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe
thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central
High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon.
...Southern High Plains into the Central Plains and Lower/Mid
Missouri Valley...
Ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms and related cloud cover across
north-central/northeast KS into southeast NE/southwest IA is being
aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a
surface front. Current expectations are for this activity to
gradually diminish in coverage as it shifts eastward into the
northwest MO/southern IA. In its wake, daytime heating may be
hampered a bit by residual cloudiness across much of
north-central/northeast KS. Even so, continued northward low-level
moisture advection is anticipated across the southern/central Plains
through the afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper
40s to low/mid 50s. This, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and cold temperatures aloft, will aid in the development of moderate
instability (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) along/south of a front
draped generally west to east across northern KS/MO.
Stronger ascent aloft and enhanced westerly flow at mid/upper levels
will remain mostly displaced to the north of the central Plains
today, as multiple mid-level perturbations rotate through mean
mid/upper-level troughing over central/eastern Canada. Still, most
guidance continues to suggest that minimal MLCIN will exist in the
vicinity of the front in north-central/northeast KS and southeast NE
by 22-23Z as surface temperatures warm into the 70s/low 80s.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
this area by late afternoon/early evening, with modest
south-southwesterly low-level winds veering to west-northwesterly at
mid/upper levels supporting 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear.
Initial convective development will likely be supercellular and pose
a threat for mainly large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter
possible). Fairly large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads with a
well-mixed boundary layer and related high cloud bases render
considerable uncertainty regarding tornado potential. But, some risk
for a tornado or two may focus along/near the front through early
evening as effective SRH gradually increases in tandem with a
strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Otherwise, the risk
for severe/damaging winds may gradually increase through mid evening
as thunderstorms tend to cluster/grow modestly upscale. But, the
severe wind risk will likely become more limited by late evening
with the loss of daytime heating and increasing MLCIN with
southward/eastward extent.
Isolated thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon farther
southwest across the central/southern High Plains along and east of
a sharpening surface dryline/lee trough. Overall convective coverage
remains highly uncertain given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent this
far south. Still, some risk for occasional hail and severe gusts
should exist with any sustained cells or clusters that can develop
and spread east-southeastward through the late afternoon/early
evening.
...Northern California/Southwest Oregon...
As an upper-level low over the eastern Pacific approaches the West
Coast today, large-scale ascent will overspread portions of northern
CA into southern OR with scattered thunderstorm development expected
into afternoon. Sufficient moisture and instability should exist
inland beneath strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of
the trough to support semi-organized convection. As low-level lapse
rates gradually steepen and flow aloft increases, this activity may
be capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly
some hail.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/09/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of
Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe
thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central
High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon.
...20z Update central and southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development remains likely late this afternoon and this
evening along the frontal zone from southern NE into northeast KS.
While remnant cloud cover has slowed destabilization, sufficient
buoyancy and supercell wind profiles will likely support a risk for
hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two this
afternoon/evening. See MCD #367 for specific short-term information.
Farther south along the trailing surface trough/dryline, more
isolated thunderstorm development is expected across the TX
Panhandle and far eastern NM. High cloud bases with deep inverted-v
structures could support isolated severe wind gusts with the heavier
cores. Storm coverage is likely to decrease farther south where
weaker forcing and overall more limited buoyancy is present. Still,
isolated storms are possible, and the 5% wind area was expanded
southward slightly for the latest hi-res guidance.
...CA and OR...
East of an upper low, broad-scale ascent over a modestly warm/moist
air mass was supporting widely scattered thunderstorms over portions
of northern CA and southern OR. While overall buoyancy is weak
(generally below 500 J/kg of MLCAPE), strengthening southerly flow
aloft could support a few organized clusters or transient supercells
capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and some hail.
..Lyons.. 04/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026/
...Southern High Plains into the Central Plains and Lower/Mid
Missouri Valley...
Ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms and related cloud cover across
north-central/northeast KS into southeast NE/southwest IA is being
aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a
surface front. Current expectations are for this activity to
gradually diminish in coverage as it shifts eastward into the
northwest MO/southern IA. In its wake, daytime heating may be
hampered a bit by residual cloudiness across much of
north-central/northeast KS. Even so, continued northward low-level
moisture advection is anticipated across the southern/central Plains
through the afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper
40s to low/mid 50s. This, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and cold temperatures aloft, will aid in the development of moderate
instability (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) along/south of a front
draped generally west to east across northern KS/MO.
Stronger ascent aloft and enhanced westerly flow at mid/upper levels
will remain mostly displaced to the north of the central Plains
today, as multiple mid-level perturbations rotate through mean
mid/upper-level troughing over central/eastern Canada. Still, most
guidance continues to suggest that minimal MLCIN will exist in the
vicinity of the front in north-central/northeast KS and southeast NE
by 22-23Z as surface temperatures warm into the 70s/low 80s.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
this area by late afternoon/early evening, with modest
south-southwesterly low-level winds veering to west-northwesterly at
mid/upper levels supporting 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear.
Initial convective development will likely be supercellular and pose
a threat for mainly large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter
possible). Fairly large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads with a
well-mixed boundary layer and related high cloud bases render
considerable uncertainty regarding tornado potential. But, some risk
for a tornado or two may focus along/near the front through early
evening as effective SRH gradually increases in tandem with a
strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Otherwise, the risk
for severe/damaging winds may gradually increase through mid evening
as thunderstorms tend to cluster/grow modestly upscale. But, the
severe wind risk will likely become more limited by late evening
with the loss of daytime heating and increasing MLCIN with
southward/eastward extent.
Isolated thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon farther
southwest across the central/southern High Plains along and east of
a sharpening surface dryline/lee trough. Overall convective coverage
remains highly uncertain given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent this
far south. Still, some risk for occasional hail and severe gusts
should exist with any sustained cells or clusters that can develop
and spread east-southeastward through the late afternoon/early
evening.
...Northern California/Southwest Oregon...
As an upper-level low over the eastern Pacific approaches the West
Coast today, large-scale ascent will overspread portions of northern
CA into southern OR with scattered thunderstorm development expected
into afternoon. Sufficient moisture and instability should exist
inland beneath strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of
the trough to support semi-organized convection. As low-level lapse
rates gradually steepen and flow aloft increases, this activity may
be capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly
some hail.
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