WW 512 SEVERE TSTM ND 242050Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central into Eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered severe thunderstorms are
forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon and evening over
central and eastern North Dakota. A few supercells will probably
pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts. The risk
for severe gusts may become more prevalent during the evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of
Bismarck ND to 60 miles northeast of Jamestown ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29040.
...Smith
WW 511 TORNADO MN ND 242030Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
Eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop and
intensify this afternoon into the evening across the Watch area. A
few of the more intense storms will likely become supercellular and
have an accompanying risk for very large hail, severe gusts, and
pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes. A severe cluster of
thunderstorms may eventually evolve later this evening with a
continued risk for large hail and severe gusts with this activity.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles
east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Warroad MN
to 15 miles east of Detroit Lakes MN. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 30045.
...Smith
WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 512
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E Y22 TO
35 S DVL TO 35 NW GFK.
..HART..07/24/26
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 512
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-021-029-031-039-043-045-047-051-063-073-085-093-250040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES DICKEY EMMONS
FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH
NELSON RANSOM SIOUX
STUTSMAN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW GFK
TO 10 NNW RRT.
..HART..07/24/26
ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 511
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-007-021-027-029-057-061-071-077-087-089-107-113-119-125-
135-250040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BELTRAMI CASS
CLAY CLEARWATER HUBBARD
ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS
MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN
PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE
ROSEAU
NDC017-035-091-097-250040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS GRAND FORKS STEELE
TRAILL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
MD 1727 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 511... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1727
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Areas affected...portions of far eastern North Dakota into northern
Minnesota
Concerning...Tornado Watch 511...
Valid 250035Z - 250200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 511 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail will continue with ongoing
supercells, with isolated tornadoes still possible.
DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells continue to traverse a baroclinic
zone at the terminus of a low-level warm-air advection regime, with
a history of severe wind/hail and at least one brief tornado. MRMS
mosaic MESH indicates severe hail is still falling with these
storms, with NEXRAD velocity data showing occasional, brief bouts of
low-level rotation. While an instance or two of hail may occur with
multicells and transient supercells farther north of the baroclinic
zone, the primary severe threat should continue with the ongoing
mature supercells for at least a few hours. All severe hazards
remain a concern.
..Squitieri.. 07/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
LAT...LON 48029786 48739628 48759465 48279350 47369318 46869333
46729365 46849447 47059591 47249661 47589761 48029786
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 1726 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1726
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Areas affected...portions of far southeastern North Dakota into far
northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242349Z - 250115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...An ongoing MCS may continue downstream of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 512 into far western MN. Severe gusts will be the
main threat, though a couple of tornadoes or instances of severe
hail are also possible. A downstream WW issuance may be needed if
confidence increases in the current MCS persisting.
DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS has organized across central
into southeastern ND, and should continue to propagate southeast
amid a favorable deep-layer shear/buoyancy parameter space. 23Z
mesoanalysis depicts over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of
effective bulk shear (aligned roughly normal to current MCS
leading-line orientation) preceding the MCS downstream of the
ongoing WW into far west-central MN. However, appreciable MLCINH
also exists downstream, so MCS persistence is unclear. However, if
MLCINH proves to be a lesser concern, an MCS may progress into MN
with severe gusts, and a WW issuance would be needed.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45899862 46419769 46649642 46589546 46319498 45899497
45589538 45409600 45419681 45599794 45899862
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
SD...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado risk remain possible this evening across portions of North
Dakota into northern Minnesota and extreme northeast South Dakota.
...ND into northern MN...
Scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across northern MN,
while a small storm cluster (with occasional embedded supercell
structures) is moving eastward across southeast ND and extreme
northeast SD. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50
kt will continue to provide a favorable environment for organized
storms through the evening, though some increase in CINH is expected
with time. Ongoing supercell structures will continue to pose a
threat of large hail and localized severe gusts, and some tornado
threat may persist through at least dusk, given increasing low-level
shear/SRH (as observed on the KMVX VWP). Any upscale growth could be
accompanied by localized swaths of greater severe-wind threat. An
eventual weakening trend is expected late tonight, as CINH continues
to increase with time and buoyancy decreases with southeastward
extent. See MCD 1726 and MCD 1727 for more information.
...Elsewhere...
High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for localized
strong to severe gusts across parts of the southern Rockies and High
Plains, southeast AZ, and the northern Great Basin into parts of
ID/western WY/southwest MT though the evening. Weak deep-layer
flow/shear should continue to limit potential for a more organized
severe threat.
..Dean.. 07/25/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
Upper-level troughing will continue to impinge of the Pacific
Northwest with the main upper low/trough likely remaining offshore.
However, mid-level shortwave troughs will occasionally rotate
through the southwest flow aloft. An upper high will be over the
southern High Plains/vicinity before slowly shifting back to the
west with upper-level ridging likely to build over much of the West
late in the outlook period. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms remain
likely across the Four Corners region, but a slight drying trend is
possible.
...Northwestern US...
Dry and breezy conditions will continue across much of the
northwestern US on Day 3/Sunday as upper-level troughing spreads
farther inland across the region. Elevated to locally critical
conditions are expected, with portions of northern Montana and from
the Sierra Front northward into southeast Oregon favored for
critical conditions. If deeper boundary layer mixing can occur
across more of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, critical
winds/RH become more likely due to the stronger winds between
700-500 mb.
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will develop across large swaths of
the northern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely across portions of southern Montana,
northern/eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Drier
thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, but there is enough
uncertainty regarding the coverage, rainfall amounts, and the
following days' thunderstorm/rain chances to preclude issuing
IsoDryT probabilities at this time.
Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected on Day 4/Monday
across portions of northwestern US. If stronger flow aloft remains
over enough of this region and deeper mixing becomes more likely
across a broader area, an expansion of 40% probabilities will be
warranted. The forecast uncertainty regarding the interplay of the
upper-level troughing in the Pacific Northwest/vicinity and the
upper-level ridge over the Plains and much of the Intermountain West
has precluded more/higher probabilities of critical conditions on
Day 4/Monday - Day 6/Wednesday.
...Southern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely to develop across
portions of the southern High Plains late this weekend through at
least mid-week. A 40% area was maintained on Day 4/Monday but
adjusted due to uncertainty regarding live fuel moisture in this
region. Day 4/Monday may be too soon for probabilities, especially
if winds remain below 20 mph. This area will be monitored going
forward.
..Nauslar.. 07/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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