Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds
and a few tornadoes will become a concern across much of New Mexico
into the southern/central High Plains from late this afternoon
through tonight. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may
also occur with convection across parts of Arizona this afternoon
and evening.

...Southwest into the Southern/Central High Plains...
Extensive cloud cover remains prevalent over much of AZ/NM into the
southern/central High Plains this morning, as low/mid-level moisture
continues to spread over these regions downstream of highly
amplified upper troughing extending across the West Coast. Multiple
embedded mid-level perturbations and a strong mid/upper-level
subtropical jet will overspread the Southwest and adjacent
southern/central High Plains through tonight. A pronounced low-level
mass response is forecast across the southern/central High Plains
late tonight, with greater low-level moisture expected to stream
northward across these regions. Still, the primary uncertainty
relating to severe potential through the period remains how much
destabilization can occur in an otherwise favorably sheared
environment.

Current expectations are for widespread cloudiness to hinder diurnal
heating and the development of instability to some degree through
the late afternoon, although some cloud breaks remain possible given
recent trends in visible satellite imagery across NM. The tropical
source region for the enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow
overspreading the Southwest will also limit mid-level lapse rates,
with consensus of latest guidance suggesting they will remain near
moist adiabatic through much of the troposphere. Even with these
potential thermodynamic limitations, there will probably be enough
weak boundary-layer instability in place by late afternoon across
western/central NM to support surface-based convection.

A broken/low-topped line of thunderstorms should develop across
eastern AZ into western/central NM by 20-00Z as a lead mid-level
shortwave trough ejects northeastward over the Southwest. While
MLCAPE may only reach the 250-750 J/kg range, strongly veering and
increasing flow with height through low/mid-levels will support
ample deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. An increasing threat
for scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes remains apparent as this convection spreads quickly
east-northeastward through the evening, with some potential for
isolated 75+ mph gusts. Greater low-level moisture (low 60s surface
dewpoints) and related instability will be present across parts of
the southern/central High Plains this evening and overnight, and an
increasing threat for severe winds and a few tornadoes will likely
exist across these regions given the continued presence of favorable
low-level and deep-layer shear. This threat will likely continue
through the end of the period (early Monday morning) across the
OK/TX Panhandles into portions of southwest KS and western OK.

Across southern/central AZ, an isolated severe wind and tornado
threat may also develop this afternoon behind the initial/lead
shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorms should form as
large-scale ascent associated with the primary upper trough
overspreads this region. While instability is expected to remain
limited given ongoing clouds/precipitation, above-average low-level
moisture and strong shear may aid organized convection and some
severe risk. Have maintained the Marginal Risk across
southern/central AZ to account for this possibility, but confidence
in higher coverage of severe thunderstorms was too low to include
greater severe probabilities at this time.

...South Florida...
Numerous to widespread thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
across south FL in association with a weak mid-level wave. The 12Z
observed sounding from MFL showed modest winds through low/mid
levels and weak deep-layer shear, but cool temperatures at mid/upper
levels. This may support occasionally strong convection capable of
producing gusty winds this afternoon, but organized severe
thunderstorms still appear unlikely.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 11/01/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and
southern Plains late Monday afternoon into the evening, with
damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes the main threats.

...Synopsis...
A deep but initially disorganized upper trough over the Southwest is
forecast to amplify considerably as several subtropical and polar
stream disturbances coalesce Monday into Monday night. An 80+ kt
subtropical speed max, and an associated shortwave trough, will
rapidly move northeastward from eastern NM and CO to the Missouri
Valley by Monday evening. Strong ascent will deepen a lee low below
1000 mb across NE/SD, with a trailing cold front that will move into
western NE and KS before surging eastward overnight. A dryline and
lee trough will extend roughly from central KS into western OK and
west-central TX aided by a secondary shortwave trough moving from
the Four Corners into TX and western OK. As this feature gradually
becomes neutral/negatively tilted, robust height falls (12-15
DAM/12hrs) will overspread the Plains sustaining a 50-60 kt
low-level jet aiding northward advection of widespread mid 60s F
surface dewpoints.

...TX/OK/KS...
In the wake of a round of morning storms associated with the passing
subtropical shortwave, a narrow corridor of robust surface heating
should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 70s F
immediately ahead of the dryline from the TX Panhandle into
southwest KS and western OK. This should allow for scattered
thunderstorm development and maturation with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg late Monday afternoon. 60-80 kt mid-level flow overspreading
the dryline will support robust deep-layer shear profiles (effective
shear 45-60 kt) favorable for organized severe storms. A narrow zone
of semi-discrete supercell potential is evident near the dryline
late in the day, with some hail, a few tornadoes and damaging wind
possible. Despite the strong shear, the impact of a mixed convective
mode and uncertainty on diurnal destabilization across the broader
warm sector remains unclear.

AIFS ensemble guidance continues to show a secondary low center
developing and intensifying beneath the maximum in height falls
aloft near the KS/OK border Monday evening. The moist and
semi-stratified air mass, along with strong isallobaric flow will
support very strong low-level shear with model hodographs showing
0-1km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2. While convective mode is likely to
transition to a more linear arrangement as forcing increases,
embedded supercellular elements and QLCS circulations will likely
persist given the robust shear environment. A few tornadoes (some
possibly strong) and severe gusts are possible near the track of the
meso low along the KS/OK border into the evening and early overnight
hours.

...Eastern KS/MO into NE/IA...
Farther north and east, instability is forecast to be limited with
residual cloud cover and continuous low-level warm advection
expected to temper heating. Still, cooling mid-level temperatures
and strong forcing for ascent should be adequate for at least weak
destabilization amid 60s F surface dewpoints. Very strong low-level
shear will be in place much of the day near and south of the
deepening surface low. This should continually strengthening through
the evening as the upper trough intensifies. Despite the minimal
buoyancy, pre-frontal warm air advection storms are possible before
consolidation ahead of the surging cold front favors a low-topped
narrow QLCS. Poor lapse rates in the low-levels cast uncertainty on
the damaging wind potential, but the strong shear and mesovorticies
could support a few strong gusts and brief tornadoes into the
overnight hours.

..Lyons.. 11/01/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1041 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 011700Z - 021200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

A minimal overlap of dry/windy conditions will maintain a reduced
fire weather threat today.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CDT Sun Nov 01 2026/

...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...