Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early this evening from parts of
eastern Pennsylvania into far southern New York, and in
south-central Florida.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S tonight.
Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern Pennsylvania into far southern New York, as the left exit
region of a very strong mid-level jet passes. Isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible early this evening within a moist and unstable
airmass in south-central Florida. No severe threat is expected in
the U.S. through daybreak on Saturday.

..Broyles.. 03/14/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

Progressive zonal flow continues across the central US this weekend
transitioning into a higher amplitude pattern early next week
characterized by deep troughing over the East and a strong ridge
over the West. On Day 3/Sunday, an upper-level trough will dig
southward into the central and southern Rocky Mountains. This trough
will track through the Great Lakes region by the end of Day 4/Monday
before lifting northeast on Day 5/Tuesday. Simultaneously, a robust
upper-level ridge will amplify over the western CONUS. By
mid-to-late week, the upper high is forecast over southern Arizona,
with much above normal geopotential heights over much of the western
CONUS.

On Day 3/Sunday, strong northwest flow on the backside of the
upper-level trough will maintain a corridor of strong winds and
persistent dry air across almost all of New Mexico and much of west
Texas. Both of the 40% and 70% probability areas were expanded to
account for the stronger upper-level jet max overhead and the
tightening surface pressure gradient associated with the advancing
cold front. Elevated to critical conditions will be ongoing in the
morning across portions of the southern High Plains. Additionally,
portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and northeast New Mexico
may see two periods of elevated/critical conditions interrupted by
the frontal passage. The wind shift from westerly to northerly is of
concern, especially with any ongoing wildfires. Meanwhile, the
central and northern Plains will see a transition to much more
stable, post-frontal conditions with significantly cooler
temperatures, allowing for a brief few days of relief from recent
critical conditions.

On Day 4/Monday, breezy and dry conditions are expected to persist
across eastern New Mexico under northerly flow. While the airmass
remains dry, surface temperatures will be cooler and surface winds
are likely to remain below elevated thresholds. The 40% area was
expanded slightly over south Texas where northerly winds will
precede and overlap with dry air behind the cold front.

On Day 5/Tuesday, warmer temperatures return to the High Plains with
north to northwest upper-level flow over much of the central US.
With resultant increased boundary-layer mixing, another day of
widespread critical conditions will be possible over portions of the
southern Plains. Additionally, the post-frontal environment over
Georgia, Florida, and portions of the Carolinas, where fuels are
driest, will provide opportunity for locally elevated conditions.
This area will continue to be watched closely over the coming days.

Record temperatures and dry conditions will continue to cure fuels
over the course of several consecutive days across the southern half
of the western CONUS through the outlook period. Regardless of
winds, high vapor pressure deficits and low RH would suggest
extended burn periods in areas with receptive fuels.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...