WW 536 TORNADO MO 312025Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 536
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Missouri
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity are expected to
increase this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front
moving through the region. Low-level shear is strong enough to
support a few tornadoes within the strongest storms. Damaging wind
gusts are also possible, particularly if storms grow upscale into
one or more convective lines.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Columbia MO to 15
miles south southwest of West Plains MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 29025.
...Mosier
WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 536
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SGF TO
5 W TBN TO 25 NE VIH TO 20 SSW STL.
..CHALMERS..08/01/26
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 536
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC055-065-067-071-073-091-093-149-153-161-169-179-203-215-221-
229-010240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD DENT DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN GASCONADE HOWELL
IRON OREGON OZARK
PHELPS PULASKI REYNOLDS
SHANNON TEXAS WASHINGTON
WRIGHT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1814 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1814
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Areas affected...parts of southeastern New Mexico into the Texas
South Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 010151Z - 010345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity accompanied by strong to severe wind
gusts may be maintained into the 11 PM-1 AM CDT time frame across
parts of the Texas South Plains. Barring more substantive
organization of the thunderstorm activity, a severe weather watch is
not anticipated, but trends will continue to monitored.
DISCUSSION...A notable surface cold pool generated by convection,
propagating off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity
this afternoon, has continued to gradually strengthen and expand the
past few hours. This has become accompanied by 2-6+ mb 2-hourly
surface pressure rises developing across much of northeastern New
Mexico, with largest rises centered around Tucumcari at 01Z, and
spreading south-southeastward. Strong to severe wind gusts have
increased at least a bit on the leading edge of the outflow, and
this may persist into/through the 04-06z time frame, particularly
across the South Plains around Lubbock, where inflow emanating from
a moist boundary layer along and north of a preceding wind shift is
likely to maintain vigorous thunderstorm development.
..Kerr/Kerr.. 08/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34800190 33920076 32520077 32490191 32860299 33770379
34160252 34800190
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
will be possible this evening across parts of the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible over the southern High Plains.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a positively-tilted mid-level
trough over the upper Mississippi Valley with westerly divergent
flow aloft over the Ozarks. At the surface, a 1003 mb low is located
over eastern Iowa with a cold front extending south-southwestward
across central and southwest Missouri. Ahead of the front, low-level
convergence and moisture is maximized. Surface dewpoints within this
zone are in the 70s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500
J/kg range. Strong thunderstorms are ongoing just to the east of the
instability axis over much of eastern Missouri. The storms will
continue to move eastward toward the Mississippi River this evening
and will eventually cross into southern Illinois.
RAP forecast soundings across south-central Missouri early this
evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 225 m2/s2 range. This will
support an isolated tornado threat with supercells. A tornado or two
will be possible over the next couple of hours with cells that
remain discrete. A gradual transition to linear mode is expected
toward mid evening. The line that is currently to the west of St.
Louis is expected to grow upscale, developing southward with time.
The line will eventually reach southern Illinois and northeast
Arkansas. A wind-damage threat will be possible along the more
intense parts of this line segment.
...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level flow is northwesterly over much of the southern Plains. At
the surface, a cold front is located from eastern New Mexico into
northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing along a narrow corridor of 60+ F surface dewpoints just to
the south of the front. Within this corridor, the RAP shows moderate
instability with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. Forecast
soundings early this evening along the instability axis have 0-6 km
shear around 25 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km
range. Surface-temperature dewpoint spreads to the south of the
front exceed 30 degrees F in some areas. The instability along with
the steep lapse rates will support a threat for severe wind gusts
for a couple more hours this evening.
..Broyles.. 08/01/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing should persist over the northeastern CONUS
into early next week, while high pressure will remain centered over
the Desert Southwest through the forecast period. An upper low will
transition into Saskatchewan on Day 3/Sunday with trailing amplified
southwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies and Montana plains.
Hot, dry, and windy conditions will promote widespread elevated to
critical fire weather concerns across much of the northwestern CONUS
on Day 3/Sunday, persisting into Day 4/Monday across portions of
western Wyoming and the northern Great Basin. Next week, long-range
guidance indicates mostly zonal flow will persist in the wake of the
upper trough, though some solutions indicate ridging may rebuild
across the western CONUS.
...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - Northwestern US...
As upper troughing shifts eastward on Day 3/Sunday, robust
southwesterly flow will overspread Idaho and Montana. Poor overnight
humidity recoveries will lead into Day 3/Sunday, permitting an
extended burning period and critical fire weather conditions to
return quickly across central Montana. Sustained westerly winds of
15-20 mph and 10-20% RH values will overlap very receptive fuels.
These meteorological conditions will also encompass eastern Idaho
and southwestern Montana, where lightning-induced holdovers may
emerge from thunderstorms earlier in the week. A southward
progressing dry cold front will enter the region on Day 3/Sunday
evening, resulting in a wind shift from broadly westerly to
northerly, which could impact any ongoing wildfires and containment
efforts across the area. While guidance is currently unclear in the
timing of this cold front, this feature will continue to be
monitored and discussed in future outlooks as confidence increases.
On Day 4/Monday, stronger southwest/westerly flow aloft will finally
begin to exit the region, pushing into the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. Nevertheless, residual dry and breezy conditions are
expected across the northern Great Basin into western Wyoming and
far northwestern Colorado, supporting 40% Critical probabilities.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/31/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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