WW 480 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY MO 102340Z - 110500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
640 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Illinois
Southwest Indiana
Western Kentucky
Southeast Missouri
* Effective this Friday night from 640 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms are expected to spread
eastward across the watch area with the potential for occasional
wind damage (60-70 mph gusts) and isolated large hail (near 1 inch
diameter) into early tonight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south of Vichy
MO to 50 miles northeast of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 479...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28020.
...Thompson
WW 479 SEVERE TSTM IL KS MO 101950Z - 110200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Western Illinois
Far Eastern Kansas
Northern Missouri
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely
move east across the Watch area this afternoon into the evening.
Scattered damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, but an isolated
risk for large hail may accompany the stronger updrafts. Additional
storms may develop on the flank of this thunderstorm activity later
this afternoon and also pose a risk for hail and wind.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north
northwest of Kansas City MO to 5 miles south southeast of Quincy IL.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Smith
WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0480 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW OJC TO
35 S CDJ TO 5 ENE IRK TO 25 SE OTM.
..DEAN..07/10/26
ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-110040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS
MOC007-019-027-041-051-053-089-101-103-111-121-127-135-137-159-
173-175-195-205-110040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
CHARITON COLE COOPER
HOWARD JOHNSON KNOX
LEWIS MACON MARION
MONITEAU MONROE PETTIS
RALLS RANDOLPH SALINE
SHELBY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
MD 1581 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1581
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Areas affected...Southeastern Arizona into far southwestern New
Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 102237Z - 110030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have begun to move off the higher terrain
and into portions of southwestern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona.
These high-based monsoonal thunderstorms will be capable of some
damaging wind gusts approaching 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION...Current radar trends show convection moving
west-southwest off the higher terrain and into the lower desert
portions of southeastern Arizona and far southwestern New Mexico,
where HRRR-based mesoanalsysis indicates a modest amount of buoyancy
(~1000 J/kg) should support continued convective activity late this
afternoon into the evening. The 18Z soundings and 2142 UTC
aircraft-based sounding from Phoenix show hot, dry, and deeply-mixed
boundary layers in advance of these storms. As a result, these
storms could be capable of damaging wind gusts around 60 MPH --
particularly with the strongest downdraft cores, or along any
interacting outflows. Conditions will continue to be monitored for
potential watch issuance.
..Halbert/Thompson.. 07/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 33521064 33711016 33550936 33310887 33070847 32880820
32660801 32250793 31780819 31380859 31260897 31290926
31600989 31921043 32081067 32271084 32441095 32611101
32991091 33521064
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARK VALLEY REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered
severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains
to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor
changes made to the 20Z Convective Outlook to account for
observations and guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 07/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026/
...Southern/Central High Plains...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon
in a weak low-level upslope regime. Ample heating due to the void
of cloud cover and a high sun angle will facilitate the development
of very steep lower tropospheric lapse rates. A cluster or two is
forecast to eventually evolve this evening over southeast CO and
from the OK-TX Panhandles into far eastern NM. Severe gusts (60-70
mph) will be the primary hazard. Isolated hail may also occur with
the stronger cores given moderate deep-layer shear.
...Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
An MCV near the northeast KS/southeast NE border will migrate
eastward today and serve as a forcing impetus for thunderstorms this
afternoon. Heating in wake of earlier showers/storms will act to
destabilize the boundary layer ahead of storms forming in proximity
to the MCV. Some modest enhancement of mid-level westerly flow may
promote organized storms, including possibly supercells, in addition
to organized clusters. Hail and severe gusts will be the primary
hazards with this activity.
...Tennessee Valley/Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...
An MCV moving into the southern Appalachians will likely aid
additional convective development this afternoon over the southern
Appalachians and into the Piedmont by late afternoon. Multicells
capable of localized damaging gusts (50-60 mph) will be the primary
threat with the stronger water-loaded downdrafts. A somewhat
separate area of thunderstorm development is also forecast farther
north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley where multiple weak
mid-level perturbations should develop eastward in generally zonal
flow aloft. While mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear will
be slightly stronger across this region compared to areas farther
south, instability should be weaker. Regardless, occasional
strong/damaging winds may occur with any thunderstorm clusters that
can develop along/south of a front this afternoon across the
Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley.
...Western Florida Peninsula...
A couple of stronger storms may develop along the sea breeze this
afternoon. PW near 2 inches will support water-loaded downdrafts
capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps wind damage.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
along/near a weak front from parts of eastern SD and vicinity into
western MN. Deep-layer shear will be weak and limit storm
organization but steepened lapse rates may support an isolated risk
for localized severe gusts or marginally severe hail with the
stronger cores.
...Southeast AZ...
Forecast soundings later today show 20-kt northeasterly 500-mb flow
atop weak low-level westerly flow. This slight enhancement to flow
may aid in storm movement and some cold pool organization with the
scattered convection that develops. Steep surface to 400-mb lapse
rates may enable a few severe gusts with the stronger cores.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind
damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday.
Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across
portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
...Synopsis...
An upper anticyclone will persist across portions of Great Basin
into Wyoming. Enhanced easterly flow on the southern periphery of
this feature will overspread portions of AZ. Further east, a closed
upper low is forecast to develop over the Ohio Valley, with a
surface low meandering across KY toward the central Appalachians. An
outflow boundary is expected to be oriented across portions of the
TN Valley westward into the southern Plains.
...ArkLaTex to GA/SC...
A very moist airmass will be in place along/south of the surface
boundary draped west to east across the region. These upper 60s to
low 70s F dewpoints and strong heating will support moderate to
strong instability and convection should develop by early afternoon
along the surface boundary. Vertical shear will remain modest,
generally around 20 kt or less, suggesting short-lived single cells
and multicells clusters will be possible. High PW values and strong
instability will support strong gusts with sporadic wind damage
possible.
...AZ...
Steep midlevel lapse rates and ample midlevel moisture will support
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development within a weakly
unstable airmass. A deeply mixed boundary layer and steep low-level
lapse rates will allow for strong outflow winds as convection
generally spreads westward across portions of southern into central
AZ.
..Leitman.. 07/10/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
Only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area based on
recent guidance. Farther east, a surface low will traverse the
southern Canadian Prairies tomorrow afternoon, tightening surface
pressure gradients across the northern High Plains. This will
encourage southerly surface winds of up to 20 mph amid 15-25% RH;
however, NDVI imagery analysis portrays much improved green-up over
the last 30 days across western South Dakota and North Dakota, where
the greatest overlap of these conditions will occur. Therefore,
improved fuels precludes the introduction of fire weather
highlights, though pockets of drier fine fuels may support localized
fire concerns. See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper level low deepening and progressing towards coastal British
Columbia will serve to intensify the height gradient with an
upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer
mixing beneath this upper jet streak will support dry and breezy
conditions across portions of the Intermountain West on Saturday.
Widespread relative humidity of 10-15% and winds of 15-20 MPH are
forecast across portions of the northern Sierra Nevadas into the
Cascades, and then eastward into portions of Idaho and far
southwestern Montana. ERCs in the 80th-90th annual percentile range
with these meteorological conditions will support Elevated
fire-weather concerns on Saturday afternoon, with perhaps locally
Critical conditions where local topography supports enhancement of
surface wind gusts.
There is also some forecast signal for dry and breezy conditions
across the northern High Plains, particularly in the far western
Dakotas. Some forecast guidance shows 15-20 MPH winds with
relatively dry boundary layer conditions. However, there is
significant forecast spread in just how dry the surface conditions
will be, and the region is in a gradient of more receptive fuels.
Given these forecast uncertainties, highlights have been withheld at
this time but may be considered in additional forecast updates.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
Strong upper troughing will persist over the Pacific Northwest
through early next week, meanwhile amplifying ridging and southerly
flow aloft will encourage monsoonal moisture to slowly translate
northward. Ensembles indicate the potential for thunderstorms on
Days 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday across portions of the Intermountain West,
where preceding hot and dry conditions may increase fuel
receptivity. PWATs are forecast to increase quickly while
instability becomes more widespread by Day 5/Tuesday, indicating
deeper moisture could promote areas of heavy rainfall. Initial
thunderstorm development and lightning on the periphery of
appreciable precipitation will present a concern for potential
ignitions where receptive fuels exist. Farther east, warm weekend
temperatures and minimal recent rainfall has led to a dry fuelscape
across parts of the Upper Great Lakes. As ridging flattens over the
northern CONUS late next week, stronger flow aloft may allow broader
fire weather concerns to emerge in the Upper Midwest.
...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday...
High pressure will expand across the central CONUS this weekend and
early next week, yielding near-record high temperatures and very dry
conditions in Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas. Beneath
upper-level troughing and strong southwesterly flow, tight surface
pressure gradients will promote gusty winds and critically low RH to
overspread portions of the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and the
northern Plains. While some uncertainty remains regarding fuel
receptivity across the Northern Rockies and adjacent Plains, 40%
Critical probabilities have been expanded on Day 3/Sunday (and
introduced on Day 4/Monday) where guidance depicts dry and breezy
conditions amid forecast ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile.
...Dry Thunderstorm Potential...
As the ridge strengthens and high pressure centers over the Greater
Four Corners region, the upper pattern will favor the advection of
monsoonal moisture northward where hot and dry antecedent conditions
have led to receptive fuels across portions of the Interior West.
There remains significant forecast uncertainty in where sufficient
instability will support dry thunderstorm development on the fringes
of monsoonal moisture. Some guidance does indicate meager convective
potential on Day 4/Monday along the Sierra Nevada into south-central
Oregon if instability can accommodate, but spread is still too high.
As a result, 10% probabilities for dry thunderstorms have been
withheld for Day 4/Monday and beyond; however, trends will be
monitored in future outlook cycles.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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