Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of tonight into
early Friday.

...01z Update...

Severe probabilities have been removed from the Mid-Atlantic as
earlier strong/severe convection has weakened and moved offshore.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight/early Friday morning
near the southern CA coast as an upper shortwave trough shifts east
across the area. Generally modest low to mid-level flow and weak
instability will preclude severe thunderstorm potential with this
activity.

..Leitman.. 11/13/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will gradually exit the East Coast by early
next week as broader ridging shifts into the north-central U.S. and
Canadian Prairies. Surface high pressure along with a period of
prolonged dry conditions and cooler temperatures will settle into
much of the Southeastern U.S. in the wake of the exiting trough. Dry
fuels should be maintained across the region but light winds will
tend to limit a greater fire weather threat through the middle of
next week across the Southeast and mid/lower MS River Valley. 

An active troughing pattern will evolve across much of the
Intermountain West as deeper Pacific moisture shifts inland and
associated precipitation subdues fire weather concerns into next
week. The northern Plains and portions of the central Plains should
remain dry through early next week. A mid-level short wave trough
pushes into the southern Plains should bringing widespread rainfall
to the region over the weekend with rainfall amounts tapering off
farther north across the central Plains. Model guidance consensus
suggests a stronger trough ejecting into the central Plains on Day
7/Wednesday which could promote enhanced downslope winds and drying
over the central High Plains. Some uncertainty in the preceding
precipitation event and potential for additional precipitation with
the stronger trough arrival, limits predictability of the fire
weather threat for the central High Plains on Day 7/Wednesday.

..Williams.. 11/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...