Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The organized-severe threat appears low for the remainder of
tonight, though occasional strong storms will be possible this
evening across the central and northern High Plains, and overnight
into parts of the mid Missouri Valley.

...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast...
A broken band of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening from parts of
the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Despite the presence of
moderate deep-layer flow/shear, longevity of organized storms within
this corridor has been limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and
generally modest buoyancy. Sporadic damaging winds have been
reported with the strongest of these storms, but a general weakening
trend is expected to continue through the evening. Localized wind
damage cannot be ruled out with any remaining vigorous storms,
though longevity of the remaining threat appears too limited to
maintain severe probabilities.  

...Central/northern Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley...
Isolated strong storms are ongoing near the NE/WY/SD border region
this evening. While deep-layer shear and midlevel lapse rates are
favorable, generally modest low-level moisture and buoyancy have
limited the severe threat thus far. The time window for any
remaining diurnal convection to intensify appears limited, though
isolated hail cannot be entirely ruled out into late evening. 

Late this evening, elevated convection is expected to increase in
coverage across the northern High Plains, and also in a separate
band into parts of the mid Missouri Valley. Relatively favorable
lapse rates and buoyancy may allow this convection to briefly
approach severe limits, but generally modest deep-layer shear and a
tendency for storm interference may tend to limit the
organized-severe threat. Confidence in more than brief elevated hail
potential is too low to include probabilities.  

...Parts of central MT...
Isolated small but relatively organized cells have recently
developed to the east and south of Great Falls, in advance of a
mid/upper-level low/trough approaching the northern Rockies. While
favorable shear will continue to support occasional storm
organization, very weak buoyancy is expected to limit organized
severe potential through the evening. Small hail and localized
strong gusts may occur with the strongest storms.

..Dean.. 09/14/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper trough and associated mid-level jet will push into the
Great Lakes region by D3/Tuesday while another trough enters the
Pacific Northwest. A potential cut-off develops across the western
U.S. bringing dry and breezy conditions southeast of the low to
portions of the Great Basin Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday. An expansive
ridge will persist over the southeastern CONUS into the weekend
yielding above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions for
much of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep
South. However, diffuse surface pressure gradients will keep winds
on the light side amid lingering Gulf moisture that should limit a
more significant fire weather threat across the region.

...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Great Basin...
An upper-level trough/low and associated enhanced southwesterly
mid-level winds are expected to push into the Pacific Northwest on
D3/Tuesday before moving into the northern CA/northern Great Basin
for midweek. The dry southwest flow should bring a fire weather
threat to portions of central and eastern NV midweek as fuels
continue to dry with ERCs rebounding into the 80th percentile by
late week. 40% critical probabilities have been introduced into
central/eastern NV for Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday.

...Southern Plains...
A southerly wind on the western periphery of a surface high pressure
over the southeastern U.S. is likely to continue each afternoon
across portions of the Southern Plains this week. Fuels remain
receptive across portions of the Southern Plains but alignment of
stronger winds (greater than 15 mph) and critically low RH is not
likely based on latest medium range ensemble guidance as somewhat
deeper Gulf moisture persists across the region.

..Williams.. 09/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...