Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A strong thunderstorm or two may affect the middle Texas coast this
afternoon and evening.

...20Z Update...
The only change with this update was trimming parts of the General
Thunderstorm area in central/south TX. Any risk of strong
thunderstorms will remain confined to the middle TX coastal areas,
where upper 60s dewpoints along/south of the coastal front are
contributing to weak surface-based buoyancy. Any isolated storms
that ingest near-surface-based parcels could pose a risk for locally
damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado this afternoon and
evening. Overall, the severe risk is expected to remain offshore.

..Weinman.. 11/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026/

...Middle Texas Gulf Coast...
Overall, the risk of severe storms appears to have diminished for
later today.  Scattered intense thunderstorms have been occurring
offshore over the warm shelf waters, but that activity is not
expected to build westward and inland.  Other showers and
thunderstorms associated with an approaching cold front over central
TX will move into the CRP/HOU areas later today, but the air mass is
only marginally unstable with dewpoints only in the 50s.  A strong
storm or two capable of gusty winds may occur around/after sunset as
the front approaches the coast, but the overall threat appears
rather low.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The forecast remains on track for Day 2/Monday with reduced fire
weather concerns across the CONUS.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026/

...Synopsis...
A robust upper trough will pivot onshore across the West Coast on
D2/Monday as upper ridging shifts eastward into the Great Plains
from the Rockies/Intermountain West. Farther east, weaker upper
troughing will linger across the Southeast as shortwave ridging
aloft builds into the Northeast. This pattern will continue to
support chances for precipitation across much of the West
Coast/Intermountain West, with a separate area of rain chances
forecast along portions of the western/central Gulf Coast. Surface
high pressure will persist across the Ohio Valley, with modestly
warming daytime temperatures and dry conditions forecast across
portions of the Southeast. Minimum RH values of 20-35% should
continue across the lower Mississippi River Valley, but light winds
will continue to limit widespread fire weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure will reside across the eastern CONUS through
the workweek, maintaining dry conditions amid rising daytime high
temperatures from the lower MS River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Forecast annual ERCs will approach the 80-90th percentile by late
next week across the Piedmont as minimum RH values range from
20-35%, but lighter prevailing winds should reduce broader fire
weather concerns.

The western U.S. will be categorized by an active troughing pattern
through the forecast period. An initial shortwave trough and
entrained Pacific moisture will promote precipitation across
portions of the Interior West through Day 3/Tuesday, then eject into
the central/northern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. Enhanced downslope
winds are expected to overspread southeastern WY into the NE
Panhandle, and farther south in the CO Front Range and mountain
valleys. RH values are expected to remain above critical thresholds
in WY/NE, but may decline to less than 20% in central/eastern CO.
Marginal fuels across the region should limit a critical fire
weather threat on Day 4/Wednesday, though locally elevated
conditions may arise where pockets of dry fuels exist.

Furthermore, a secondary upper trough is forecast to move onshore
and translate over the western CONUS Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday.
However, too much uncertainty in the quality of associated moisture
and timing/strength of the trough progression limits predictability.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...