WW 94 TORNADO IL IN 032220Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 94
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
520 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central Illinois
West-Central into Northwest Indiana
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms, including supercells
capable of a tornado risk, will be possible through the mid evening
across the Watch area. A couple of the stronger storms will likely
focus the tornado and large-hail threats.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Peoria IL to 40
miles northeast of Lafayette IN. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 92...WW 93...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23020.
...Smith
WW 93 SEVERE TSTM KS MO OK TX 031940Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 93
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kansas
Western Missouri
Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify through the afternoon along a
cold front from western Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. A
tornado or two is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles southwest of
Wichita Falls TX to 55 miles northeast of Kansas City MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 92...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
WW 92 TORNADO IA IL KS MO 031920Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 92
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Iowa
West-Central Illinois
Northeast Kansas
Northern Missouri
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected ahead of a surface low
and along a warm front across the watch area. Supercells are
possible, capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles
east and west of a line from 10 miles northeast of Ottumwa IA to 20
miles southeast of Chillicothe MO. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Hart
WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0094 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0093 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 92
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE FNB
TO 50 NE SDA.
..LYONS..04/03/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 92
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-067-071-109-187-032240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN HANCOCK
HENDERSON MCDONOUGH WARREN
IAC007-039-051-053-057-087-101-111-117-135-159-173-175-177-179-
185-032240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR DES MOINES HENRY
JEFFERSON LEE LUCAS
MONROE RINGGOLD TAYLOR
UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO
WAYNE
KSC043-032240-
WW 0092 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 92
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE FNB
TO 50 NE SDA.
..LYONS..04/03/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 92
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-067-071-109-187-032240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN HANCOCK
HENDERSON MCDONOUGH WARREN
IAC007-039-051-053-057-087-101-111-117-135-159-173-175-177-179-
185-032240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR DES MOINES HENRY
JEFFERSON LEE LUCAS
MONROE RINGGOLD TAYLOR
UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO
WAYNE
KSC043-032240-
MD 0345 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 0345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Texas Big Bend into Stockton
Plateau
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032201Z - 040000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated supercells forming along a dryline across the
Texas Big Bend Region into Stockton Plateau will pose a risk of
large/very large hail and severe wind gusts over the next couple of
hours.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is ongoing south of Fort
Stockton along a trailing dryline. A moderately unstable environment
(2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and around 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear
will favor supercell development capable of large/very large hail
and severe wind gusts. While mid-level lapse rates remain modest (~7
C/km), ample buoyancy within the hail growth zone (300-400 J/kg)
coupled with straight, elongated hodographs will support the
potential for hail of 2+ inches in diameter with any persistent
supercell. Given the displacement of better synoptic-scale forcing
well to the north, storm coverage is expected to remain isolated.
Thus, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. A new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may need to be considered, however, should
supercells trend towards more scattered coverage with the potential
for a longer duration hail threat.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29550256 29350277 29100279 28880313 29150343 29480355
29870354 30270342 30920291 31290225 31130154 30630123
30060127 29740160 29680213 29550256
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 0344 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0344
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Areas affected...Central portions of Illinois into central and
northwest Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 032159Z - 040000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase into the evening hours,
though the overall intensity and coverage of storms remains
uncertain at the moment.
DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercells persist along an
east-to-west oriented baroclinic zone across central IL/IN. These
storms are developing amid a moist boundary layer, characterized by
upper 60s F dewpoints amid small T/Td spreads, with over 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE present. The upper trough is currently displaced relatively
far to the west, so shorter term forcing mechanisms are
predominantly from stronger surface heating, and the ILX/IND VADs
currently depict short and modestly curved hodographs. The current
thinking is that storms should remain at their current degree of
organization and intensity for at least the next couple of hours.
Transient circulations potentially supporting isolated, brief
tornadoes is the most immediate threat.
A few hours from now, into the evening hours, the gradual approach
of the upper trough will support a substantial strengthening of the
850 mb flow (i.e. southerly low-level jet), especially in the 00-06Z
time frame. Should discrete, surface based storms persist in this
time frame, it is plausible that appreciable strengthening and
organization of supercell structures with sustained low-level
mesocyclones may be achieved. Such storms may pose a locally greater
tornado threat in addition to severe wind/hail. However, such a
threat is dependent on storms remaining surface based, with boundary
layer stabilization only gradually taking place. As such,
uncertainty remains. However, convective trends will continue to be
monitored through the evening hours as the low-level jet
intensifies.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 04/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41219007 41558879 41278654 40818576 40368573 39968598
39798676 39768817 39708945 39729011 39979053 40909034
41219007
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also
possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over
parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.
...20z update KS, MO IA and IL...
Scattered thunderstorm development was ongoing this afternoon ahead
of a weak surface low an associated cold front over the MO Valley.
To the east, a broad and unstable warm sector exists south of a
quasi-stationary front extending into eastern MO and IL. Moderate
buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support a mix of supercells.
Damaging winds and hail remain the most likely near the cold front
as it moves eastward with a linear storm modes. A few tornadoes are
also possible with more discrete cells and backed surface winds
along the warm front farther east. The primary update to the
forecast was to remove thunder and severe probabilities behind the
cold front, otherwise the severe risk remains as is.
...Southern KS, OK and into TX...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely this afternoon and
evening along the advancing cold front from southern KS, across much
of OK and ahead of a dryline into west-central TX. South of the
primary upper trough and stronger flow aloft, overall forcing will
be weaker. Still, forecast soundings and observation trends show
moderate destabilization and sufficient deep-layer shear for
supercells and organized clusters/line segments. Hail (some 2+ in)
is possible with initial supercells before upscale growth is
expected to take place with the surging cold front.
A locally more favorable zone for large hail, damaging gusts and a
tornado or two may develop across parts of central and southern OK
if semi discrete supercells or stronger bowing structures can become
organized/maintained this afternoon/evening.
...OH Valley...
A moist and unstable air mass will support scattered thunderstorms
across the OH valley this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts are
possible with multi-cell storms/clusters amid modest vertical shear.
Storms should weaken this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.
..Lyons.. 04/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/
...MO/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northeast KS. This low
will track northeastward across southern IA today, with the
associated warm front lifting northward into northern IL. The air
mass in the warm sector of the low will be relatively moist and
unstable with dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values
of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low in IA, and more widely scattered storms eastward along
the warm front. A few supercells are possible across this region,
with a concern for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the
most intense cells.
...MO/KS/OK/TX...
An extensive line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the
cold front this afternoon from western MO into southeast KS and much
of OK. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE will be present ahead of
the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
rotating/bowing storm structures. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concern, but a tornado or two are also
possible.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...MUCH OF OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING AND TYPOS
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may develop and overspread the lower Great
Lakes vicinity and middle through upper Ohio Valley Saturday
afternoon and evening, accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts
and potential for a couple of tornadoes.
...Discussion...
As mid-level ridging builds further across the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, models
indicate that several digging downstream short wave troughs across
the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. Great Plains may
contribute to the northeastward acceleration of a notable mid-level
low, now slowly turning eastward toward the middle Missouri Valley.
In response to these developments, an initially modest surface
cyclone associated with the lead perturbation is generally forecast
to undergo substantive deepening while occluding across and
northeast of the upper Great Lakes vicinity. A secondary cyclone
may form across the southeastern Michigan through Lake
Huron/Georgian Bay/adjacent Ontario vicinity by Saturday afternoon,
with a trailing cold front continuing to advance east of the
Mississippi Valley and southward through the southern Great Plains,
into the Appalachians/lower Mississippi Valley/northwest Gulf coast
vicinity by early Sunday.
Initially cold, stable air to the north of a preceding front may
remain entrenched across much of New England through this period,
while widespread thunderstorm development today through tonight cuts
off the advection of elevated mixed-layer air and associated steeper
mid-level lapse rates to the east of the Mississippi Valley. At the
same time, the impact of lingering pre-frontal convective
development, associated surface outflow and northeastward/eastward
advecting remnant cloud cover on subsequent destabilization within a
potentially expanding warm sector across the mid/upper Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes region remains unclear.
...Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region...
Conditionally, a relatively moist (60+ F surface dew points) air
mass within the evolving warm sector is likely to become conducive
to organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells,
Saturday afternoon and evening. However, stronger mid/upper support
for ascent may remain displaced to the northwest of much of the
destabilizing warm sector, with strongest forcing for convection
confined to the front, or, perhaps more likely, a conglomerate
pre-frontal outflow.
Although the signal in model output is not particularly strong, it
appears possible that convection may begin re-intensifying along the
leading outflow boundary while overspreading southeastern Lower
Michigan into the lower Ohio Valley by early afternoon. As this
occurs, strong lower/mid-tropospheric shear beneath south to
southwesterly wind fields strengthening to 40-60+ kt in the 850-500
mb layer will be more than sufficient to support organization and
increasing risk for severe wind gusts and tornadoes. This threat
likely will persist as activity overspreads much of the remainder of
the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into Saturday evening.
...Parts of the Mid South into northwestern Gulf Coast...
Weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent, deep-layer mean wind field and
shear suggest more limited severe weather potential than further
north. However, somewhat better boundary-layer moisture, including
mid 60s F+ dew points, may contribute moderate CAPE ahead of
southeastward advancing convective outflow. It appears possible
that this could support re-intensification of convection that could
become accompanied by sporadic damaging downbursts late Saturday
afternoon into evening.
..Kerr.. 04/03/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Mid Atlantic
Coast vicinity Sunday, accompanied by at least some risk for
damaging wind gusts.
...Discussion...
Latest model output suggests that a broad, deep occluded surface
cyclone may deepen at least a bit further while migrating
east-northeastward across Quebec during this period. Renewed
cyclogenesis appears possible across the Canadian Maritimes by
Sunday evening, with a trailing cold front advancing offshore of the
northern through middle Atlantic coast by early Monday, while
slowing/stalling across parts of northern Florida.
Pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization, where deep-layer mean
flow and shear appears sufficient to support convective
organization, is forecast to remain weak, due to generally weak
tropospheric lapse rates. It appears that this may become focused
along lee surface troughing across and east of the Carolina
Piedmont, perhaps as far north as a developing low/frontal wave
across south central Virginia into the southern Delmarva Peninsula
by late Sunday afternoon.
Forcing for ascent, downstream of a short wave impulse progressing
through the base of approaching larger-scale mid-level troughing, is
likely to aid convective development, with sheared, 30-50 kt
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer contributing
convective organization with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts. A narrow broken squall line may evolve, with perhaps
embedded supercell structures which could also pose the risk for a
tornado or two while spreading toward coastal areas by early Sunday
evening.
..Kerr.. 04/03/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Locally elevated
conditions will be possible for a few hours during the afternoon of
Day 2/Saturday over portions of southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas,
and southeast New Mexico. However, recent accumulating precipitation
over much of Oklahoma and extreme eastern portions of the Texas
Panhandle combined with expected showers and storms over almost all
of the aforementioned area today and tonight will preclude the
introduction of any highlighted areas with this forecast issuance.
The latest forecast trends and observations from the Day 1/Friday
activity will be closely watched over this region.
..Stearns.. 04/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level shortwave trough and its associated surface low
will transition northeastward across the Great Lakes region on
D2/Saturday while upper-level ridging builds across the West. A
trailing cold front will progress eastward across portions of the
Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys and southward across southern
Texas, with high pressure building into the Great Plains behind this
front. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values are
expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time.
...Portions of the Texas Rolling Plains into Southern New Mexico...
Latest high-res guidance suggests that sustained northeasterly to
easterly surface winds around 15 mph along the southern periphery of
the aforementioned surface high may briefly overlap reduced RH
values of 15-20% Saturday afternoon to promote locally elevated fire
weather concerns from the Texas Rolling Plains into southern New
Mexico. Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding the duration of overlap between sustained
surface winds of 15+ mph and RH values below 20% as well as the
potential for light precipitation on D1/Friday across Texas. Trends
will continue to be monitored for future outlooks.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
Upper-level ridging will be in place across the western US on Day
3/Sunday with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region.
Meanwhile, a significant cold front will be moving across the
Eastern Seaboard, having left accumulated precipitation across much
of the central and eastern US. An incoming trough over the Pacific
Northwest will flatten the ridge slightly on Day 5/Tuesday. This
will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern half of the
CONUS on Day 6/Wednesday as the incoming trough moves along the
Canadian border. Also on Day 6/Wednesday, a cutoff upper-level low
approaches the central California coast, contributing to
precipitation over the southern half of the western US through Day
8/Friday as it moves inland.
...Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday...
A tightened surface pressure gradient will result in sustained
south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph over portions of the southern
High Plains. This combination of wind with RHs down to 10-15%,
supports the introduction of 40% probabilities over this area.
...Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday...
One area that the latest guidance leaves out of accumulating
precipitation is just east of central and southern Appalachian
Mountains. While uncertainty remains among the latest forecast
guidance, the potential for offshore flow will be possible early to
mid-next week. This area will be watched closely for potential
inclusion as the timing of northerly winds and the consistency of
preceding precipitation (especially on Day 1/Friday and Day
3/Sunday) becomes more clear.
While some potential for critical conditions will exist across
portions of the Great Basin and surrounding areas as the upper-level
ridge breaks down on Day 5/Tuesday, preceding precipitation and
resultant questionably receptive fuels will preclude any
probabilities over that area with this issuance. Another day of
tightened surface pressure gradient supports south-southwest winds
of up to 20 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over portions of the southern
High Plains again on Day 6/Wednesday. Much of this region is favored
for accumulating precipitation by late next week.
..Stearns.. 04/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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