Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible from this afternoon into the overnight across parts of the
mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in
parts of the southern High Plains, and in southeastern Arizona.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward today across the
north-central U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be
located from the central Plains northeastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Along and to the south of the front, surface
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures
warm today, moderate instability will develop to the south of the
front. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough will support
scattered to numerous thunderstorm development from this afternoon
into tonight across much of Missouri and Illinois. 

RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon near the instability axis
in northeast Missouri have MLCAPE near 2000 j/kg, with 0-6 km shear
around 35 knots. This may support supercell development with storms
that remain discrete. However, high-resolution models suggest that
storm mode could be more favorable for multicells due to widespread
convective coverage. Although low-level lapse rates will be poor,
the instability and moderate deep-layer shear could be enough for
isolated severe wind gusts and hail.

...Southern High Plains...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across much
of the central U.S. A small pocket of moderate instability is
forecast to develop over southeast Colorado this afternoon. This
will aid convective initiation in the foothills of the southern
Rockies. During the late afternoon and early evening, storms are
expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations of the
northwestern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma Panhandle. The
instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates may support an
isolated threat for severe wind gusts.

...Southeastern Arizona...
A sufficiently moist airmass will be in place today across southern
Arizona. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will
develop over much of southeast Arizona by afternoon. Convection is
expected to form in the higher terrain of southwest New Mexico, with
storms moving west-southwestward across southeast Arizona from late
afternoon into the early evening. Very steep low-level lapse rates
and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will contribute to a
potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 08/05/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains,
and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.
Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains activity.

...Central SD into northwest NE...
A shortwave trough will move southeastward across SK/MB, with at
least some influence extending southward across the northern Plains.
A surface trough will develop southward into central SD and western
NE, where strong heating will occur. A narrow band of uncapped
instability is forecast, with several models indicating scattered
storms late in the day. Southerly 850 mb winds over 20 kt will
aid/maintain moisture into the area, and forecast soundings show
marginally favorable hodographs for supercells. Localized hail may
occur initially, with some clustering and wind potential into the
early evening.

...Southern KS into northwest OK...
A surface trough/wind shift is forecast to exist from southern KS
into northern OK, with southerly winds and strong heating to the
south. Near/north of the boundary, winds will remain southeasterly
with higher dewpoints. General model consensus is for the deeply
mixed boundary layer to support an uncapped air mass, with a zone of
storms developing. These will likely produce strong outflow, and a
few severe gusts may occur.

...Northeast...
Southwest winds aloft will persist over the region as an upper high
remains over the Atlantic and a shortwave trough approaches the
Lower Great Lakes by late afternoon. Height tendencies will remain
neutral from NY into WV/VA during the day, but strong heating, PWAT
near 2.00" and sufficient MUCAPE should aid scattered storm
development near a weak surface trough after 19Z. This would include
from south-central NY into central PA and across the higher terrain
of western VA. A few strong gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell.. 08/05/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may occur over parts of the Northeast and Upper
Mississippi Valley region on Friday. Locally strong wind gusts
appear most likely.

...Northeast...
Beneath modest southwest winds aloft, a large area of thunderstorms
is likely Friday afternoon from the TN Valley/Appalachians into the
Northeast, as daytime heating combines with a moist air mass and
marginal instability. General thunderstorm activity appears most
likely across these areas given weak winds at or below 20 kt below
700 mb. However, increasing daytime storm coverage could produce
locally gusty winds/outflows, especially where pockets of greater
instability develop with the higher dewpoints over eastern areas.

...WI/MN/IA...
A northwest flow regime over the northern Plains will gradually move
toward the Upper Great Lakes Friday into Saturday, with cooling
temperatures aloft and 500 mb winds on the order of 30-35 kt. A weak
surface trough may develop from Lake Superior southwestward into IA
during the day, with eventual destabilization as southwest winds at
850 mb increase to around 20 kt. Shear will not be particularly
strong, but storms are likely late in the day into the overnight
from WI into IA. While isolated severe gusts or hail cannot be ruled
out, predictability issues preclude adding a risk area at this time.

..Jewell.. 08/05/2026