Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late
tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positively tilted upper trough off the West Coast will evolve into
a closed low through the period as it moves slowly southward
along/near the coast of central/southern CA. An associated surface
low should develop towards the coastal southern CA late tonight into
early Saturday morning. Instability across this area is forecast to
remain very weak, with poor lapse rates aloft present. Even so,
low-topped convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for
charge separation and lightning flashes as it moves onshore across
parts of southern CA late tonight. Low-level winds are expected to
remain modest, but south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with
height through mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur
in the higher terrain, the overall severe threat should be hampered
by minimal instability and weak low-level shear.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/14/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A midlevel shortwave trough will dampen as it shifts east from the
central Plains toward the Mid-South in the Day 4-5/Mon-Tue time
period. Some enhanced westerly flow will overspread the region
nonetheless, and a weak surface low is forecast to track from KS/OK
toward the central or southern Appalachians through Tuesday night.
Ahead of the surface low and an attending cold front, modest Gulf
moisture return is forecast across the southern Plains into the
Lower MS Valley. Some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms could
develop across the Ozarks to the Mid-South vicinity Monday and
Tuesday, through confidence in 15 percent coverage is low given the
weakening midlevel trough and lack of a deepening surface cyclone.

During the Day 6-8 period, forecast model spread increases
considerably. However, a general trend indicating a deepening trough
across the West ejecting across the Plains toward the central U.S.
Thursday and Friday is apparent. Depending on the evolution of this
feature and any developing surface cyclone and attendant Gulf return
flow across the south-central U.S., an increase in severe
thunderstorm potential could develop. Large spread and poor
run-to-run consistency among various guidance precludes
probabilities at this time.