WW 354 TORNADO AL FL GA 181830Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Alabama
Central Florida Panhandle
Western Georgia
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread eastward through the afternoon
across eastern Alabama into western Georgia, with a slow
intensification expected. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
possible in the strongest cells.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Atlanta GA to 20
miles south southeast of Dothan AL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 351...WW 352...WW 353...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26025.
...Hart
WW 353 TORNADO CT MA ME NH CW 181740Z - 182300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Connecticut
Central Massachusetts
Western Maine
New Hampshire
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
SUMMARY...The fast-moving line of thunderstorms will spread across
the watch area through the afternoon. Corridors of damaging winds
and a few tornadoes are expected with these storms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles northeast of Berlin NH to 20
miles east southeast of Windsor Locks CT. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 351...WW 352...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.
...Hart
WW 352 TORNADO MA NY VT 181400Z - 181900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Massachusetts
Central and Eastern New York
Vermont
* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM
until 300 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
SUMMARY...A line of fast-moving thunderstorms will sweep eastward
across the watch area through the early afternoon, posing a risk of
damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Elmira NY to 25
miles east of Montpelier VT. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 349...WW 350...WW 351...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 26040.
...Hart
WW 351 TORNADO AL FL LA MS CW 181255Z - 182200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
755 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Alabama
Western Florida Panhandle
Southeast Louisiana
Southeast Mississippi
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 755 AM until
500 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes likely
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A very strong low-level wind field will transition
northeastward across the region today and interact with a moist
environment, supporting the potential for supercells capable of
tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Slidell
LA to 40 miles east northeast of Evergreen AL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 349...WW 350...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22025.
...Guyer
WW 0354 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 354
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CHALMERS..06/18/26
ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 354
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-017-031-045-051-061-067-069-081-087-101-109-111-113-
123-182140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS
COFFEE DALE ELMORE
GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON
LEE MACON MONTGOMERY
PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL
TALLAPOOSA
FLC005-059-063-131-133-182140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY HOLMES JACKSON
WALTON WASHINGTON
GAC007-021-035-037-045-053-061-063-067-077-079-081-089-093-095-
097-099-113-121-135-145-149-151-153-171-177-193-197-199-201-207-
215-223-225-231-239-243-247-249-253-255-259-261-263-269-273-285-
WW 0353 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 353
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PSF TO
10 SSE EEN TO 65 NNE BML.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188
..THORNTON..06/18/26
ATTN...WFO...BOX...GYX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 353
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC003-013-015-182140-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM
MEC001-005-007-017-031-182140-
ME
. MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN
OXFORD YORK
MAC009-011-013-015-017-027-182140-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
WW 0352 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 352
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE ELM
TO 25 NNE BGM TO 45 WNW GFL TO 35 NW BTV.
..THORNTON..06/18/26
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 352
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MAC003-181740-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
NYC001-007-017-021-025-031-035-039-057-077-083-091-093-095-113-
115-181740-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO
COLUMBIA DELAWARE ESSEX
FULTON GREENE MONTGOMERY
OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE WARREN
WASHINGTON
VTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-
181740-
WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MSY TO
GPT TO 35 NE MOB TO 10 ENE MGM.
..CHALMERS..06/18/26
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 351
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-013-035-039-041-053-097-182140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BUTLER CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA
MOBILE
FLC033-091-113-182140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
MSC059-182140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON
MD 1189 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 351...354... FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Areas affected...portions of the central Gulf Coast and Southeast
Concerning...Tornado Watch 351...354...
Valid 182048Z - 182215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 351, 354 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
continues across Tornado Watches 351 and 354.
DISCUSSION...A modestly well-organized convective line remains
ongoing from the central Gulf Coast into eastern Alabama as of 2035
UTC. While no severe gusts have been observed over the past several
hours, moderate buoyancy and modestly enhanced effective shear
preceding this convection will continue to support the maintenance
of this convective line and additional clusters, with a threat for
damaging wind gusts. This activity will spread east/northeastward
through this evening in tandem with a mid-level disturbance and
attendant southerly, low-level jet. The MXX/EVX/EOX VAD profiles are
also sampling 125-150 m2/s2 0-500 m SRH ahead of this convection,
which will continue to promote the potential for a few tornadoes. A
relatively greater tornado risk may develop from eastern Alabama
into western Georgia where the convective line is gradually
developing a more favorable north-south orientation (more
perpendicular to deep-layer shear vectors) and where surface winds
are locally more backed.
..Chalmers.. 06/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30478890 31038773 31638657 31968622 32458609 32848588
33258533 33218475 32988446 32368433 31638446 30908487
30418577 30168658 30048779 29958870 29968915 30078936
30248932 30478890
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 1188 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 353... FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Areas affected...portions of New England
Concerning...Tornado Watch 353...
Valid 182006Z - 182130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 353 continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to continue eastward for the next couple of
hours. Threat for damaging wind and isolated tornadoes will
continue.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across
eastern Maine into Massachusetts and northern Connecticut. These
storms have produced reports of wind damage and gusts up to 60-64
mph this afternoon. While thermo profiles have been marginal, the
near surface and mid-level flow remains strong. The low-level jet
axis has begun to shift offshore, however, deep layer flow around
40-50 kts remains near the coast into portions of eastern/central
Maine. Damaging wind and isolated tornado potential will continue
for another 1-2 hours within WW353 before gradual weakening and
storms shift offshore.
..Thornton.. 06/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 42957247 43747183 44667128 44667048 44216989 43716983
42987040 42077157 41507225 41817293 42307302 42957247
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MD 1187 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Areas affected...portions of the south-central Great Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 181951Z - 182115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and gusty winds may
persist for another couple of hours before diminishing later this
afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, persistent elevated convection remained
ongoing across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
This activity has produced isolated reports of 1.00-1.25" hail and
damaging wind gusts over the past several hours. Continued
low-to-mid tropospheric warm air advection (centered around 700 mb)
atop a low-level frontal inversion is sustaining these storms, with
latest objective analysis indicating the presence of 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Effective shear of 40-50 kts and elongated hodographs above
the frontal inversion may continue to support occasional elevated
supercells capable of isolated large hail; although, relatively weak
mid-level lapse rates (generally less than 7 C/km) will largely
limit this threat. Occasional strong/damaging wind gusts may also
accompany these storms. This risk should then gradually diminish
with time through this afternoon and evening. Watch issuance is not
expected owing to the limited severe coverage/magnitude.
..Chalmers/Hart.. 06/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36919849 37219832 37349811 37449771 37589641 37619576
37519525 37459501 37089478 36749482 36449523 36199587
36079656 36119733 36269814 36519841 36919849
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1186 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Southeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 181917Z - 182115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging downburst winds are possible this
afternoon and evening. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a hot, humid air
mass in place across portions of the Southeast, with temperatures in
the upper-80s/low-90s F and dewpoints in the mid-70s to near 80
contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE).
While effective shear remains weak across the discussion area owing
to weak mid-level flow (as sampled by the 18z JAX observed
sounding), rich tropical moisture and PWAT exceeding 1.9-2.0" will
promote an isolated risk for water-loaded downbursts capable of
damaging wind gusts. The best potential for occasionally damaging
downbursts likely exists from southern South Carolina into central
and southeastern Georgia where the best overlap between buoyancy,
high PWAT values, and modestly-steep low-level lapse rates exists.
Given the isolated nature of this threat and the limited potential
for greater storm organization, watch issuance is not expected.
A more appreciable severe weather threat is expected to develop
across portions of western Georgia later this afternoon/evening. See
Tornado Watch 354 and Mesoscale Discussion #1185 for additional
details.
..Chalmers/Hart.. 06/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 33197894 32987907 32707953 32288023 31938066 31418107
31088138 30788191 30728196 30578269 30618322 30918383
31168402 31588422 31898425 32488420 32858415 33378407
33708393 34008373 34338312 34488249 34488157 34438053
34267968 34127926 33937904 33757891 33607884 33197894
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND...THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND FROM THE GULF COAST
STATE INTO THE CAROLINAS....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from
Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with
primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe
storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with
damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also
occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast states, and scattered
storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into
western North Texas.
...NY/New England...
A fast-moving low-topped squall line is tracking eastward across NY.
Low and mid level wind fields in this region are very strong,
contributing to occasional bowing structures and QLCS mesocyclones.
This activity will spread into VT/NH through the afternoon with a
continued risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Confidence
in severe storms farther south into southern New England is lower,
but at least isolated strong/damaging wind gusts are possible.
...KY into Mid Atlantic...
A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends across KY
into southern VA. Strong heating along and south of the boundary
will likely result in renewed convection this afternoon, in a zone
of moderate westerly flow aloft and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. A
few severe storms are expected in this corridor, with activity
moving into northern NC later today. Damaging winds are the main
risk.
...Gulf Coast into Carolinas...
The remnant circulation of Arthur is becoming more progressive with
time, and is accelerating eastward. As this occurs, the zone of
relatively strong southerly low-level winds will also shift across
AL into GA and eventually SC/NC tonight. Ample low-level moisture
and high theta-e values will coincide with the region of strong
shear, and CAM solutions suggest clusters of thunderstorms in this
area as well. This suggests at least some risk of damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes through the afternoon and night as the system
moves northeastward.
...TX/OK...
Scattered thunderstorms will occasional hail risk will slowly
diminish across northern OK this afternoon. Later today, new
thunderstorms are expected to develop in a hot and very unstable air
mass in vicinity of the surface low near ABI/SJT. These slow-moving
storms will have some damaging wind and hail risk through the
evening.
..Hart/Chalmers.. 06/18/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...INTO NEW
ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely from
Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with
primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe
storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with
damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also
occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast and southeast states, and
scattered storms may produce damaging winds or marginal hail from
Oklahoma into western North Texas.
...20z Update TX/OK...
Forecast confidence has increased late this afternoon into tonight
that one or more semi-organized clusters of thunderstorms will
develop and spread southeastward across parts of western North TX
with a risk for damaging gusts. Strong convergence near an
anomalously deep surface low and sagging cold front will support
numerous thunderstorms tonight. Despite marginal deep-layer shear
for organization, a hot and very unstable air
mass in vicinity of the surface low will allow for strong cold pool
development, potentially supporting severe outflow gusts. More
isolated damaging gusts and/or marginally severe hail remain
possible farther north into OK. Have upgraded wind probabilities to
15% and a categorical Level 2 Slight Risk for portions of western
North TX.
...Southeast...
Convection associated with the remnants of Arthur will persist
through tonight along a stalled frontal zone in the Southeast. While
clustering has resulted in more linear structures, enhanced flow
aloft and pockets of stronger low-level shear near the front may
still support occasional rotating updrafts, with the risk for a
couple of tornadoes or damaging gusts from eastern AL, into GA and
the western Carolinas through tonight. Have reduced maximum tornado
probabilities, but will maintain a broad 5% for occasional supercell
structures along/near the front.
...New England...
The broken band of storms ahead of the cold front should continue
eastward and gradually weaken into this evening. Southern portions
of the line over MA, CT and RI may remain stronger given better
buoyancy, but storm coverage here should become more isolated with
time. Damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible.
Have trimmed probabilities behind the cold front where the risk has
decreased. No other changes were made, see the previous discussion
for more information.
..Lyons.. 06/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026/
...NY/New England...
A fast-moving low-topped squall line is tracking eastward across NY.
Low and mid level wind fields in this region are very strong,
contributing to occasional bowing structures and QLCS mesocyclones.
This activity will spread into VT/NH through the afternoon with a
continued risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Confidence
in severe storms farther south into southern New England is lower,
but at least isolated strong/damaging wind gusts are possible.
...KY into Mid Atlantic...
A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends across KY
into southern VA. Strong heating along and south of the boundary
will likely result in renewed convection this afternoon, in a zone
of moderate westerly flow aloft and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. A
few severe storms are expected in this corridor, with activity
moving into northern NC later today. Damaging winds are the main
risk.
...Gulf Coast into Carolinas...
The remnant circulation of Arthur is becoming more progressive with
time, and is accelerating eastward. As this occurs, the zone of
relatively strong southerly low-level winds will also shift across
AL into GA and eventually SC/NC tonight. Ample low-level moisture
and high theta-e values will coincide with the region of strong
shear, and CAM solutions suggest clusters of thunderstorms in this
area as well. This suggests at least some risk of damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes through the afternoon and night as the system
moves northeastward.
...TX/OK...
Scattered thunderstorms will occasional hail risk will slowly
diminish across northern OK this afternoon. Later today, new
thunderstorms are expected to develop in a hot and very unstable air
mass in vicinity of the surface low near ABI/SJT. These slow-moving
storms will have some damaging wind and hail risk through the
evening.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ARKLATEX INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the
Upper Midwest and parts of the central Plains. Additional strong
thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts from north
Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of the Gulf Coast states
and into the coastal Carolinas.
...Synopsis...
The primary upper-level trough is expected to move off the Northeast
coast on Friday. Another compact shortwave trough will move into the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest. A remnant tropical low will move into
the Carolinas. A stalled cold front will extend from the Carolinas
into the southern Plains with another weak cold front from the Upper
Midwest into the central High Plains.
...Coastal Carolinas...
With the remnants of a tropical low beginning to phase with the
upper trough in the east, a window of severe risk will occur during
the morning in the coastal regions of the Carolinas. Enhanced
low-level flow associated with the remnant circulation will promote
a risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado near the circulation
itself and along a pseudo warm front.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
While moisture return is a bit uncertain, generally 50s F dewpoints
are expected to advect northward into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
A compact, moderately strong shortwave trough will likely promote
thunderstorm development during the afternoon along the surface
trough/weak cold front. The potent mid-level jet will bring 45-55 kt
of effective shear to the region. 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected
despite the limited moisture as temperatures aloft (-18 to -20 C at
500 mb) will accompany the trough. Isolated to widely scattered
supercells are possible. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts
are possible.
...ArkLaTex into Southeast...
An MCV is anticipated along the Red River during the morning. This
feature, coupled with heating of a very moist (70+ F dewpoints)
airmass along and south of a stalled cold front will promote
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will
be weak, particularly away from the cold front, and storm
organization will depend on the MCV or mesoscale clustering.
Damaging downburst winds are the main hazard with this activity.
Similar activity can be expected along the Atlantic sea breeze front
from near Jacksonville to the Space Coast.
...Northwest Kansas into central Nebraska...
Modest moisture return on the western flank of the surface high will
potentially allow thunderstorms to develop along the surface
trough/weak cold front. Surface convergence will be weak and
mid-level ascent will be nebulous at best. Coverage is likely to be
isolated if storms can form. Moderate mid-level winds will promote
40-50 kt of effective shear. Storm mode would likely be
supercellular with a risk of severe wind gusts and large hail.
...Northern Sierra/Northwest Nevada...
A modest upper-level low and mid-level moisture will promote widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms within the northern Sierra.
Some of this activity may become marginally organized given stronger
mid-level winds. Small hail and strong outflow winds are possible.
Overall coverage of marginally severe activity still appears too low
for probabilities.
..Wendt.. 06/18/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central
Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large
to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are
possible.
...Central Plains...
Modest shortwave ridging within the Plains will break down as a
subtle shortwave approaches the central Rockies during the
afternoon. Given the moderately strong mid-level flow across the
Divide, a deepening surface low along the Colorado/Kansas border
will aid moisture return into the central Plains south of a stalled
surface boundary that will retreat northward as a warm front. With
mid/upper 50s F dewpoints reaching eastern Colorado/Wyoming,
convection is expected to develop with the terrain of southeast
Wyoming and perhaps along the surface trough as well. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and effective shear near 50 kt will support
initial supercell structures. These storms will be capable of
large/very-large hail and severe winds, particularly as they
interact with richer moisture to the east. Moist southeasterly
(backing to near easterly along the surface boundary) will also
support a threat for tornadoes. The tornado threat is somewhat
uncertain given the somewhat weak low-level flow. However, should
storms remain discrete into the evening, strong low-level
winds/larger hodographs would support a greater tornado threat and
potentially a stronger tornado. With time, models are in general
agreement that some upscale growth will occur. This appears most
likely to occur near the surface boundary. As this occurs, a more
organized wind threat would develop and wind gusts of 75+ mph would
become more probable. As confidence in the corridor of a potential
MCS track increases, higher probabilities will likely be needed.
..Wendt.. 06/18/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was expanded slightly over
portions of northern CA, far southwest OR, and far west NV. The
latest forecast guidance shows convection spreading slightly farther
eastward over the lower elevations of western NV this afternoon.
Forecast guidance also shows convection forming this afternoon over
the terrain-favored areas, especially near the Shasta-Trinity
National Forest and neighboring high and mid elevations where fuels
are receptive to fire activity. As was previously mentioned, the
pre-storm environment over this region supports mostly dry
thunderstorms with limited precipitable water below 3/4 inch and
storms motions above 15 mph. Though coverage is expected to
decrease, nocturnal convection is also not out of the question over
this region tonight.
..Stearns.. 06/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026/
...Synopsis...
A large-scale ridge will continue building over the Southwest into
the Great Basin today. Meanwhile, a midlevel trough will begin to
impinge on the northwestern periphery of the ridge.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in the
development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the Sierra
during the afternoon into the evening hours. Inverted-V profiles and
0.4-0.7 inch PW will favor mostly dry thunderstorms, and given
increasingly dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced
ignitions are a concern.
Farther east, a mix of wet-dry thunderstorms are also expected over
parts of southeastern AZ into southwestern NM -- along the
northwestern periphery of a deeper midlevel moisture plume. Here, a
deep sub-cloud layer may tend to limit accumulating rainfall with
this activity, resulting in some concern for lightning-induced
ignitions where fuels are dry. However, the overlap of dry
thunderstorms over receptive fuels appears too limited for Dry
Thunderstorm highlights at this time.
...Central NC and vicinity...
Enhanced deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread the
area ahead of an approaching cold front, resulting in 15-20 mph
sustained southwesterly surface winds. Diurnal heating ahead of
increasing cloud coverage and eventually rainfall may yield a brief
overlap of 35-40 percent RH with these breezy winds -- supporting a
brief period of locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels
are dry over parts of central NC.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
NEVADA...NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON...
An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorm risk was introduced for Day
2/Friday across portions of northeastern CA, northwestern NV, and
far southern OR. The latest forecast guidance indicates a higher
coverage of thunderstorms that begin in the mid-morning hours on Day
2/Friday and drift toward the northeast as storm coverage and
intensity increases through the late morning and afternoon hours
across the drawn area. Even so, limited low level moisture and storm
motions of 15-30 mph will maintain the threat of this area of
concentrated convection remaining mostly dry. Adjustments in the
form of slight expansions were made to the existing Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm area as well. These small changes were commensurate
with the areal expansion of thunderstorms indicated by the latest
forecast guidance, especially along the northern CA coast and in
central portions of OR. The Elevated wind/RH area was also expanded
to include the remainder of the Mojave and much of the Colorado
Deserts in southern CA where dry and receptive fuels will coexist
with afternoon RHs near 5-10% and south/southwest winds sustained at
15-20 mph.
..Stearns.. 06/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026/
...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will continue eastward across parts of northern CA
into the Great Basin -- resulting in the breakdown of an upper ridge
over the region.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Large-scale forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough and
ample midlevel moisture across northern CA into the northern Great
Basin and Intermountain West will support the development of widely
scattered high-based thunderstorms beginning as early as Friday
morning and persisting into the evening hours. While around 0.75
inch PW will promote a mix of wet-dry thunderstorms, quick storm
motions and a well-mixed boundary layer should still tend to limit
rainfall accumulations with much of this activity. Given preceding
days of warm/dry conditions and increasingly receptive fuels,
lightning-induced ignitions and locally strong/erratic outflow winds
are a concern.
...Great Basin into the Southwest and central Rockies...
Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow preceding the midlevel trough
will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer across the region
during the afternoon. The combination of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20
mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds atop dry fuels will
favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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