Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough extending from the Great Lakes into the OH and
TN Valleys will move into the northeastern US today, with a weak
upper ridge across the Rockies. This pattern will favor high
pressure over the central and eastern states, stable conditions and
minimal thunderstorm activity. A cold front associated the eastern
trough will be well off the East Coast by midday, with drying
offshore flow. Minimal instability may yield isolated thunderstorms
over eastern Florida, or perhaps across the Rio Grande Valley where
elevated moisture and weak instability will remain atop the surface
cool layer. In any case, severe storms are not forecast.

..Jewell/Moore.. 04/19/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel trough will progress from the Northeast off the New
England coast on Monday, while the trailing cold front continues
southward into the Caribbean Sea. In the wake of this system, high
pressure and a relatively dry airmass will limit thunderstorm
potential across much of the CONUS.

... South Florida ...

North of the aforementioned front, diurnal heating of a moist
post-frontal airmass characterized by dewpoints in the mid-60s
should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Weak
buoyancy and a lack of significant large-scale ascent should
preclude any severe threat.

... Southwest into Texas ...

Farther west, a subtle, low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into
South Texas, combined with weak low-level warm advection and modest
moisture return will support a few rounds of isolated thunderstorms
across Southwest Texas into Central Texas. 

Additionally, isolated diurnal thunderstorms are possible across the
Southwest as midlevel moisture impinges on the region. This activity
is expected to remain focused over the higher terrain, and given the
weak instability and modest forcing, severe weather is not expected.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the
south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes. No severe weather
is anticipated.

... Synopsis ...

A large-scale midlevel trough will move push inland across the
western CONUS into the Great Basin on Wednesday, with downstream
ridging building across the central CONUS in response. Across the
Northeast, northwest flow aloft will prevail downstream of the
central CONUS ridge. An embedded jet streak and associated vorticity
maximum within the northwest flow will aid driving a weak surface
low and attendant frontal boundary southeast across the Great Lakes
through the forecast period. Meanwhile, the surface ridge across the
Southeast will move east, just offshore of the Southeast Atlantic
Coast, promoting return flow across the Plains. The return flow will
be aided by the development of lee troughing across much of the High
Plains.

... Western US ...

Scattered showers are expected across portions of the West in
association with the inland-moving large-scale trough. Seasonably
cool midlevel temperatures will support enough instability for a few
thunderstorms, although severe potential is very low.

... South-central US ...

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region within
the return flow regime. Here, weak warm-air advection combined with
between 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support convective development.
Weak vertical shear and the lack of strong forcing for ascent should
limit any severe potential.

... Southern Great Lakes ...

Scattered showers a few thunderstorms will be possible within the
surface frontal zone as it pushes south/southeast during the day.
Instability around 500 J/kg MUCAPE and weak effective layer shear
should preclude a more robust severe weather event, but a strong
wind gust or two may be possible.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026