Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty
winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast
Arizona and southwest New Mexico.

...20z Update...
No Outlook changes are warranted, with incipient thunderstorm
development now occurring across southeast Arizona as of 20z. For
additional short-term forecast details, see Mesoscale Discussion
2383.

..Guyer.. 10/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026/

...Southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico...
Generally cloud-free skies are noted late this morning as heating
has steadily occurred in the presence of a relatively moist airmass
with prevalent 50s F surface dewpoints in lower elevations.
Satellite imagery/derived-winds continue to portray a 35-45 kt
southwesterly mid-level jet associated with a weak shortwave trough
will continue northeastward today. Modest large-scale ascent related
to this feature coupled with terrain-driven influences should aid
thunderstorm initiation across southeast Arizona this afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached.

The boundary layer will not become overly well mixed across this
region through the afternoon, which should allow for around 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE to develop. This instability coupled with cool
mid-level temperatures and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear appear
sufficient for some updraft organization with the scattered to
numerous thunderstorms that form. Isolated, marginally severe hail
and gusty outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that
develop and spread east-northeastward across southeast Arizona into
southwest New Mexico through the afternoon and early evening. This
activity is expected to quickly weaken by mid-evening with the loss
of daytime heating.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ARIZONA...FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail, wind and perhaps a brief tornado may occur
over portions of Arizona, southern Utah and western New Mexico on
Wednesday.

...Discussion...
An upper low will slowly approach CA Wednesday, with strong
southwest winds aloft overspreading much of the Great Basin, Lower
CO River Valley, AZ and UT. A surface trough will develop during the
day from southern CA/southwest AZ into central NV, with gusty south
to southeast surface winds aiding boundary-layer mixing, as well as
moisture advection across AZ and into southern UT.

Scattered showers and storms may be ongoing over northern AZ
Wednesday morning, aided by upslope winds. Further destabilization
is likely during the day, with expanding storm coverage overall.
Favorable deep-layer shear over 50 kt with elongated hodographs will
favor a few supercells producing hail. A tornado or two may occur
especially over the elevated terrain where LCL heights will be
lower.

Instability and placement/timing of the greatest threat area is a
bit uncertain, but increased severe probabilities may occur in later
updates as the event nears.

..Jewell.. 10/19/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Overall fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS for Day
2/Tuesday; please see the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough positioned off the West Coast will continue
drifting south throughout the day, resulting in continued
amplification and strengthening of southwesterly flow overspreading
much of the West. Despite breezy onshore south-southwesterly winds
(sustained near 15-20 mph) across portions of southern/central
California, RH values are forecast to remain well above critical
criteria along with increasing chances for precipitation. Thus,
fire-weather concerns remain low for this region, with perhaps
locally elevated conditions possible across portions of far
northeast California and vicinity.

Elsewhere, fire-weather concerns remain low as well as broad/weak
flow aloft and surface high pressure continues to prevail.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...