No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 19 03:02:02 UTC 2026.MD 1193 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 354... FOR FAR SOUTHERN MS...SOUTH AL...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0859 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Areas affected...Far southern MS...south AL...western FL Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 354...
Valid 190159Z - 190400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 354 continues.
SUMMARY...Redeveloping storms may pose a threat of a brief tornado
and/or locally damaging wind through late evening.
DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster with a history of producing a
brief tornado is moving across the western FL Panhandle at 0155 UTC
this evening. This cluster is moving along the trailing outflow from
earlier convection, with relatively enhanced low/midlevel flow still
noted on the KEVX VWP. A brief tornado and/or locally damaging wind
could still accompany this system through late evening, as it
approaches the southwest portion of WW 354.
Farther west, storms continue to redevelop near/west of Mobile. This
trend may continue into late evening, as moist low-level
southwesterly flow continues to impinge on the remnant outflow.
While there may be a tendency for the bulk of convection in this
area to be slightly elevated, occasional supercell development could
be accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind and a brief
tornado, especially where any modest outflow modification can occur.
..Dean.. 06/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30798864 30948803 30938738 30938649 30888623 30678562
30568543 30298537 30128540 30128578 30208622 30228664
30218703 30188783 30158835 30258861 30438880 30508886
30798864
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MD 1192 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 354... FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN GA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Areas affected...Southern/eastern GA and adjacent parts of the FL
Panhandle and western SC
Concerning...Tornado Watch 354...
Valid 190116Z - 190315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 354 continues.
SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging winds and brief tornadoes may
continue into the late evening.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS with embedded circulations is moving eastward
across central GA as of 0115 UTC. The KJGX VWP continues to depict
seasonably strong low/midlevel flow, with favorable low-level
veering and 0-1 km SRH near/above 150 m2/s2. Downstream wind
profiles are expected to remain favorable through the evening,
though earlier convection has resulted in some cooling and
stabilization from east-central GA into parts of SC. Some low-level
moisture recovery is possible in advance of this QLCS, which may
help to sustain this system and result in a continued threat of wind
damage and brief tornadoes into the late evening, though the weaker
buoyancy with eastward extent results in uncertainty regarding
magnitude of the nocturnal threat in this area. The need for a
downstream watch is uncertain, and will depend in short-term
observations regarding storm organization and any buoyancy recovery.
Farther southwest, occasional semi-discrete cells have been noted
between Dothan and Tallahassee. Any persistent small supercells
could continue to pose a brief tornado threat, given the presence of
very rich low-level moisture and favorable low-level shear/SRH.
To the west of Dothan, persistent convection has recently surged
eastward, with rather strong winds noted at 1 km AGL from KEOX. This
convection is largely north of the outflow from earlier convection,
resulting in certainty regarding severe-wind potential at the
surface, but at least localized wind damage will be possible as this
small cluster moves across southeast AL.
..Dean/Smith.. 06/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 33588363 33898312 34058265 34158208 33738173 33428159
32948181 31968272 30978405 30848427 30608485 30588521
30778605 31018627 31268629 31498613 31648573 31908423
32858360 33148362 33588363
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated brief tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible from far
southern Alabama into the parts of the Florida Panhandle and across
much of Georgia. Scattered damaging winds are likely this evening
into tonight over much of north-central Texas.
...From far southern AL across GA and into SC...
A line of thunderstorms currently extends north-south across central
GA ahead of the midlevel wave. The environment is very moist and 0-1
SRH is over 250 m2/s2 at the JGX radar. Minimal CIN due to the high
PWAT air mass should thus continue to support QLCS tornado potential
as the line of storms moves across GA, and possibly into SC later
tonight.
Farther southwest, robust thunderstorms have developed near Mobile
and will move eastward across far southern AL and the northern and
western FL Panhandle. A very moist and unstable air mass resides
here as well, and stronger westerly flow and shear around the
southern periphery of the upper system will continue to support a
narrow corridor of brief tornado or damaging wind potential.
For more information see mesoscale discussion 1191.
...Much of north-central Texas...
Hot conditions exist across the Abilene to San Angelo area this
evening, with little CIN. The 00Z MAF sounding shows a deep mixed
layer and over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with a near 60 F dewpoint. Just east
of the low-level lapse rate plume, dewpoints are well into the 70s
F, with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE into central TX.
Storms are already beginning to form over west-central TX as a cold
front pushes south into the storm-ready air mass. Winds around 850
mb will also increase out of the southeast tonight, aiding unstable
inflow into a developing cluster of storms. Shear and steering
currents aloft are weak, but severe outflow is expected to affect
much of northwest into north-central TX later this evening into
tonight. A general southeastward propagation is most likely, into
the moist plume. Conditions appear favorable for damaging winds, and
localized significant wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Given such
high instability, some of the stronger storms may briefly produce
hail.
..Jewell.. 06/19/2026
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