WW 382 SEVERE TSTM TX 232020Z - 240000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western North Texas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A long-lived cluster of storms will likely continue
southeastward across the region, with at least isolated bouts of
large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north
northwest of Abilene TX to 20 miles north northeast of Mineral Wells
TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 381...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
31025.
...Guyer
WW 381 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NC NJ VA CW 231545Z - 240000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Delaware
Eastern Maryland
Eastern North Carolina
Southern New Jersey
Eastern Virginia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1145 AM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move
across the region this afternoon into early evening ahead of a cold
front. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts, though a tornado or two also will be possible. This
activity should move offshore this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 130
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles northwest of
Rocky Mount NC to 80 miles east of Norfolk VA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 380...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Leitman
WW 380 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 231500Z - 232000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Oklahoma
Eastern Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM until
300 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...This potential for wind damage and bouts of large hail may
increase as a line of storms continues to organize, accelerate, and
progress southeastward across the region.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Clinton OK to 25 miles south of Altus OK. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
31030.
...Guyer
WW 0382 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0382 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E RDU TO
40 ESE RZZ TO 20 N ORF TO 30 W WAL TO 5 SE SBY TO 55 S ACY.
..LEITMAN..06/23/26
ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...AKQ...MHX...ILM...RAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC047-232140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WORCESTER
NCC013-015-017-019-029-031-041-047-049-053-055-061-065-073-079-
095-101-103-107-117-129-133-137-139-141-143-147-155-163-177-187-
191-195-232140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN
BRUNSWICK CAMDEN CARTERET
CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN
CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN
EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE
HYDE JOHNSTON JONES
LENOIR MARTIN NEW HANOVER
ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK
PENDER PERQUIMANS PITT
ROBESON SAMPSON TYRRELL
WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272
..MOORE..06/23/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-015-031-039-055-057-065-075-141-149-231940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM CADDO COMANCHE
CUSTER GREER HARMON
JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN
WASHITA
TXC075-087-483-231940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1278 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Areas affected...northern Colorado into southern Wyoming
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 231957Z - 232200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely in the coming
hours from northern Colorado into southern Wyoming. Initially
high-based thunderstorms will intensify as they spread east into the
lower elevation. Watch issuance will likely be needed as this
occurs.
DISCUSSION...Gradual deepening and glaciation of cumulus is noted in
recent GOES day cloud phase imagery within the higher terrain of
northern CO and southern WY. This activity is largely being driven
by a combination of orographic ascent near the base of a layer of
steep mid-level lapse rates (observed between 7.5 to 8.0 C/km by
upstream 18 UTC RAOBs). Further deepening and the onset of lightning
production is expected within the next couple of hours as daytime
heating continues. The zonal flow regime aloft will advect cells
eastward into the adjacent High Plains where regionally rich
low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s) is in place and
is supporting a plume of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Convection emanating
off the higher terrain should be able to intensify within this
thermodynamic environment and mature into primarily discrete
supercells given around 45-50 knots of effective bulk shear.
Residual capping and fairly weak forcing for ascent away from the
terrain casts uncertainty on overall storm coverage, but storms that
can become sustained over the High Plains will likely pose a threat
for very large hail as well as severe wind gusts.
..Moore/Guyer.. 06/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...
LAT...LON 38760482 40130559 40930615 41950705 42290701 42570649
42500565 42030466 41490417 40860368 39920320 39210304
38750306 38400331 38060395 37990434 38040475 38760482
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
MD 1277 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 380... FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Areas affected...Northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380...
Valid 231942Z - 232145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380
continues.
SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will likely persist
through late afternoon and early evening across parts of northwest
Texas. Downstream watch issuance will be needed shortly.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KFDR and KLUB shows continue
south/southeastward propagation of a cluster of strong/severe
thunderstorms with a history of producing severe wind gusts.
Although portions of this cluster are starting to become outflow
dominant, additional development is noted on the west/southwest
flank of the complex into a very unstable air mass. Given the
persistence through late morning/early afternoon, probability seems
high that the cluster will continue to pose a severe threat through
the diurnal heating maximum when buoyancy will be maximized.
Consequently, some severe wind and hail risk should continue
downstream into the Rolling Plains of northwest Texas for the next
several hours. Downstream watch issuance will be needed to address
this concern.
..Moore.. 06/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 33990029 34269987 34369945 34169899 33139838 32779853
32529930 32529971 32700018 32880043 33990029
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 1276 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Areas affected...Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 231906Z - 232100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Conditions are being monitored for convective initiation
along an outflow boundary across the Texas Panhandle. If/when
thunderstorms develop, they will mature within a favorable
environment for supercells capable of large/very large hail, severe
wind, and perhaps a tornado.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES day cloud phase imagery shows steady
vertical growth of cumulus along an outflow boundary migrating
west/southwest across the TX Panhandle. A recent 18 UTC RAOB from
Amarillo, TX (just ahead of the boundary) sampled a highly buoyant
environment (MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg) with adequate deep-layer wind
shear (around 37 knots of effective bulk shear) for supercells.
Nearly 300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH sampled by the sounding also strongly
suggests supercells will be favored, especially given the relatively
weak ascent and some residual capping in the vicinity of the
boundary. Consequently, large hail (possibly up to 2.5 inches)
appears possible along with severe gusts. With temperatures
recovering into the upper 70s on the cool side of the boundary,
convection may be able to utilize the slightly stronger 0-1 km SRH
along/north of the boundary, which could support some tornado
threat.
The primary uncertainty is precisely when mature convection will
emerge along the boundary. Continued westward progression of the
boundary has recently displaced incipient updrafts away from the
zone of ascent, suggesting further stalling of the boundary may be
required before sustained thunderstorm development occurs.
Nonetheless, recent high-res guidance has consistently shown
convection developing along this boundary during the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Watch issuance will likely be needed
once sustained deep convection becomes apparent.
..Moore/Guyer.. 06/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34020137 34430203 35120270 35370282 35910298 36360291
36520271 36530238 36430213 36130171 35790126 35410087
35100069 34740060 34410062 34170078 34030099 34020137
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 1275 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Areas affected...Central to southern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 231844Z - 232045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...An uptick in thunderstorm coverage is expected over the
next 1-2 hours as outflow boundaries begin to collide. Storms may be
capable of large hail and severe gusts. Watch issuance may be
needed.
DISCUSSION...Two outflow boundaries are apparent in surface
observations and radar imagery across central OK. Recent development
along the northern outflow boundary near/west of the OKC metro has
produce a strong wind signature with observed gusts between 50-60
mph per Mesonet observations. Additionally, MRMS VII trends show
periodic severe hail signals. Given a nose of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
in place ahead of both outflow boundaries, additional thunderstorm
development appears likely in the next couple of hours. 30-35 knot
0-6 km BWD values observed at KILX ahead of the boundaries suggests
storms may see transient organization with an attendant hail/wind
threat prior to destructive interference from neighboring cells
and/or cold outflow. The expected transient nature of the convection
(similar to what is being observed across southern OK) casts
uncertainty on whether the severe threat will be sufficiently
prolonged and/or widespread to warrant additional watch issuance
and/or expansion of WW 380.
..Moore/Guyer.. 06/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34569904 34879846 35219814 35509790 35669739 35709682
35409663 34919664 34449679 33929717 33859771 33859812
33989856 34279910 34569904
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains through tonight. Other
severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Virginia and
eastern North Carolina, as well across the Upper Midwest.
...Southern Plains and Central High Plains...
Complex scenario exist with multiple iterations of convective
clusters ongoing regionally at midday, including a relatively more
intense/focused cluster near the southwest Oklahoma and eastern
Texas Panhandle border vicinity. These storms are likely to persist
generally south-southeastward today, and potentially grow upscale
with continued wind/hail potential, but details are complicated by
prevalent outflow/cloud debris etc. Additional development may occur
later today into tonight on the west-northwest fringe of these early
day storms/residual outflows and near the front/east of the surface
low, which could bring about a renewed severe potential mainly in
the form of large hail and damaging winds. However, recent HRRR runs
(14z/15z) have notably trended much more limited with this
late-day/evening redevelopment scenario.
Farther west/north, weak low-level upslope flow and a small-scale
mid-level perturbation embedded within the westerly flow aloft
should encourage at least isolated convective development across
southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado by late afternoon, and more
so, into early/mid evening. A conditionally favorable environment
for very large hail will exist across the central High Plains this
afternoon into tonight. Any thunderstorms that can develop will
likely become severe given strong deep-layer shear, the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong
instability. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.
...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Thunderstorms will increase through early/mid afternoon
along and ahead of the front. While lapse rates aloft will remain
poor, sufficient instability will exist with daytime heating to
support surface-based convection. A generally linear/cluster mode is
anticipated given the frontal forcing, with modestly enhanced and
increasing low/mid-level flow and related shear supporting
thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds appear to be the
main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward through the
afternoon, with the greatest concentration forecast across parts of
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. A brief tornado or
two may also occur.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota.
Given sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this
activity is expected to pose a severe hail/wind risk, along with the
potential for a couple of tornadoes in immediate proximity of the
surface boundary where low-level CAPE/shear will be maximized.
...Coastal Southeast...
Isolated severe thunderstorms mainly capable of downbursts/wind
damage will be possible this afternoon within a moist and unstable
airmass for areas including far southern Georgia and northern
Florida.
..Guyer/Moore.. 06/23/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND COLORADO FRONT RANGE...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains through tonight. Other
severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Virginia and
eastern North Carolina, as well across the Upper Midwest.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was a westward expansion of
severe probabilities (including the ENH) toward the higher terrain
in southern/central CO. Rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper
60s dewpoints) along the western edge of convectively reinforced
outflow in the central High Plains will spread westward beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates toward the higher terrain through this
afternoon into tonight -- in response to a passing midlevel wave to
the north. This rich moisture/outflow and enhanced easterly upslope
flow should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along
the higher terrain into this evening. Around 50 kt of effective
shear and strong surface-based buoyancy will promote supercells
capable of producing very large hail along the I-25 corridor.
Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made to the outlook, to
include trimming severe probabilities behind eastward-spreading
convection in the Mid-Atlantic, and a southward expansion of
probabilities in the southern Plains (ahead of southward-moving
thunderstorm clusters).
..Weinman.. 06/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026/
...Southern Plains and Central High Plains...
Complex scenario exist with multiple iterations of convective
clusters ongoing regionally at midday, including a relatively more
intense/focused cluster near the southwest Oklahoma and eastern
Texas Panhandle border vicinity. These storms are likely to persist
generally south-southeastward today, and potentially grow upscale
with continued wind/hail potential, but details are complicated by
prevalent outflow/cloud debris etc. Additional development may occur
later today into tonight on the west-northwest fringe of these early
day storms/residual outflows and near the front/east of the surface
low, which could bring about a renewed severe potential mainly in
the form of large hail and damaging winds. However, recent HRRR runs
(14z/15z) have notably trended much more limited with this
late-day/evening redevelopment scenario.
Farther west/north, weak low-level upslope flow and a small-scale
mid-level perturbation embedded within the westerly flow aloft
should encourage at least isolated convective development across
southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado by late afternoon, and more
so, into early/mid evening. A conditionally favorable environment
for very large hail will exist across the central High Plains this
afternoon into tonight. Any thunderstorms that can develop will
likely become severe given strong deep-layer shear, the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong
instability. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.
...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Thunderstorms will increase through early/mid afternoon
along and ahead of the front. While lapse rates aloft will remain
poor, sufficient instability will exist with daytime heating to
support surface-based convection. A generally linear/cluster mode is
anticipated given the frontal forcing, with modestly enhanced and
increasing low/mid-level flow and related shear supporting
thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds appear to be the
main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward through the
afternoon, with the greatest concentration forecast across parts of
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. A brief tornado or
two may also occur.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota.
Given sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this
activity is expected to pose a severe hail/wind risk, along with the
potential for a couple of tornadoes in immediate proximity of the
surface boundary where low-level CAPE/shear will be maximized.
...Coastal Southeast...
Isolated severe thunderstorms mainly capable of downbursts/wind
damage will be possible this afternoon within a moist and unstable
airmass for areas including far southern Georgia and northern
Florida.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High
Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across
portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across
northern Utah.
...Synopsis...
Strengthening westerly flow aloft in association with a mid-level
wave moving out of Saskatchewan/Manitoba will overspread the central
Rockies on D2/Wednesday. A surface low will be located across
northern Wisconsin drifting eastward with a cold front extending
southward into the central high Plains. Lee cyclogenesis is progged
late in the period across eastern Colorado/western Kansas in
response to the increased westerly flow across the central Rockies.
Widely scattered severe storms are expected to form across the high
terrain in the central/southern High Plains before moving into the
central/southern Plains by the evening. More isolated severe storms
are possible near the surface low in Wisconsin, across portion of
the Ozarks to Mississippi, and northern Utah.
...Central/Southern High Plains into the Ozarks...
Moderate instability will overlap strong deep layer shear within the
upslope flow across eastern Colorado into southeastern Wyoming
Wednesday afternoon. This will support initial supercell modes with
development into the afternoon. Easterly surface flow becoming
westerly aloft will support veering wind profiles and low-level
curvature of hodographs. Large to very large hail and perhaps a
tornado will be possible before storms begin to cluster. Damaging
wind potential will then increase as storms consolidate along
outflow and spread eastwards. The Slight was shifted further
eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle to account for this downstream
potential.
...Eastern Arkansas into Mississippi...
Confidence in the evolution of overnight convection across portions
of Oklahoma Tuesday night is decreasing. It remains possible that an
MCS will be ongoing towards the beginning of the D2/Wednesday period
shifting eastward into portions of Arkansas by day break. It is
possible that should this occur, some re intensification could be
ongoing across portions of eastern Arkansas into Mississippi. For
now, a Marginal Risk was maintained across this area for potential
for damaging winds pending further details on the evolution of
convection overnight.
...Upper Great Lakes...
Filtered daytime heating through breaks in the clouds should allow
for moderate instability to develop near the surface low across
portions of the western Great Lakes. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the
surface low and frontal boundary, and within the belt of stronger
mid-level flow, suggesting some potential for large hail with the
strongest updrafts.
...Northern Utah...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across northern Utah
during the day on Wednesday, with weak to moderate instability
progged by the afternoon. Forecast soundings show a deeply-mixed
sub-cloud layer which will support potential thunderstorms capable
of damaging winds.
..Thornton.. 06/23/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the central/northern High Plains with a threat for large to very
large hail and severe wind, and perhaps a tornado or two for
portions of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas into the Ozarks on
Thursday.
...Synopsis...
Embedded waves within a predominately zonal flow pattern and broad
westerly flow aloft will extend across the central Rockies into the
central/southern Plains on D3/Thursday. At the surface, a low will
deepen and shift eastward across western Texas into eastern Oklahoma
with attendant frontal boundary extending eastward across northern
Oklahoma into the Missouri and Ohio Valley.
...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks...
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma as a
shortwave trough rotates through the pattern. Afternoon thunderstorm
development will focus along the residual outflow/frontal boundary.
Guidance suggests that though residual cloud cover may remain behind
the morning convection, strong heating/destabilization should occur
near the two boundaries into the afternoon. Strong deep layer shear
around 40-50 kts should support supercell modes with potential for
large to very large hail and damaging wind. With the deepening of
the surface low, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase to
around 40-50 kts into the afternoon/evening, which will enlarge
low-level hodographs and lead to increasing tornado potential. There
remains some uncertainty in the exact axis and strength of the
low-level jet at this time.
...Central/Northern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop with the combination
of easterly upslope flow and upper-level forcing for ascent across
portions of eastern Wyoming/Colorado. Moderate instability and
strong deep layer shear will support supercells capable of large to
very large hail and damaging wind. Storms will eventually cluster
and move eastward, with potential for a few instances of damaging
wind into western NE/KS.
..Thornton.. 06/23/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 231700Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
UTAH...
No changes were needed to the existing fire weather outlook as the
forecast remains on track. Poor RH recoveries were noted across much
of the Great Basin and Southwest. A swath of very low RH values of
10% or less currently stretches from the eastern Great Basin into
the Four Corners region. West winds of up to 20 mph under a building
upper ridge will develop across northern AZ and southern UT by mid
afternoon resulting in Critical fire weather conditions for the area
amid very dry fuels.
...Inland Southern California...
Mid and upper-level moisture streaming northward into southern CA
combined with daytime heating and instability will bring isolated
convection to inland/desert portions of southern CA this afternoon
and this evening. A few dry lightning strikes with high based
thunderstorms are expected but coverage should be limited, with dry
thunderstorm highlights withheld for this outlook.
..Williams.. 06/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry southwesterly to westerly flow under a building ridge aloft will
bring a broad fire weather concern to portions of the Southwest,
southern Great Basin and CO Plateau today. Hot temperatures combined
with dry air will drop RHs to 5-15% during peak heating across this
region this afternoon. This well-mixed boundary layer will transport
the aforementioned flow to the surface, leading to widespread
west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph over the Elevated area. To capture
the areal extent of this activity as indicated in the latest
forecast guidance, slight expansions were made to include additional
portions of central NV and southwestern WY. A corridor of enhanced
westerly winds up to 20 mph amid RH as low as 10% will yield a
period of critical fire weather conditions for parts of northern AZ
into southern UT. Persistently poor RH nighttime recoveries will
further exacerbate already very dry fuels and extend burn periods
well into the overnight hours.
While not likely, a thunderstorm or two cannot be completely ruled
out near Flagstaff, AZ. If any such storm does form, it will likely
provide more potential for wind than rain given the high cloud
bases, limited precipitable water, and very hot and dry surface
conditions in this area. Greater potential for thunderstorm activity
will exist on Day 2/Wednesday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN UTAH...
...Central and Western Utah...
An upper-level short wave is nearing Southern CA and is projected to
push into the Great Basin and Southwest through Day 2/Wednesday.
Mid-level moisture accompanying this feature combined with
increasing daytime instability and topographic lift will aid in
thunderstorm evolution across a broad region of the Interior West. A
favorable environment for more widespread high-based showers and
thunderstorms north of mid-level jet will exist over portions of UT
where Scattered Dry Thunderstorm highlights have been introduced.
Initial thunderstorm development in the early afternoon will be dry
before boundary layer moistening (including precipitable water
values nearing 1.0") enables some wetting rainfall to reach the
surface, especially along and east of the Interstate 15 corridor in
central UT. Gusty outflow winds emanating from nascent precipitation
cores could have a considerable impact to existing wildfires, where
near record fuel dryness is noted. Pyrocumulus potential is also
heightened for Wednesday over sufficiently active fires given the
increased instability and introduction of mid-level moisture.
Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected over more complex terrain
across the greater Four Corners region, eastern Great Basin and
Wyoming Basin, where thunderstorm forward speeds could reach 30-35
mph from southern NV into the Four Corners area limiting surface
rainfall. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential will also exist across
the central ID mountains into southwestern MT where isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights have been introduced.
...Northwestern CO, northeastern UT into far southern WY...
Dry and breezy conditions under stronger 45-50 knot mid-level flow
are expected preceding the eventual influx of moisture from the
Southwest late Wednesday afternoon. West to southwest winds of
around 15 mph and relative humidity of 10-15% will support several
hours of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels across this
region before a temporary fire environment improvement arrives
Wednesday evening.
..Williams.. 06/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
An embedded upper-level short wave trough and attendant plume of
mid/upper level sub-tropical moisture moves into the Southwest by
Day 2/Wednesday, bringing a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of
the Southwest and Four Corners region. Early in the day, convection
will likely be ongoing over portions of southwest UT before becoming
more widespread to include much of the larger Isolated Dry Thunder
area as daytime heating continues. The escalating precipitable water
values associated with this increasingly progressive moisture plume
will be watched closely with future forecast issuances given their
potential to dampen dry thunderstorm potential. However, given the
widespread critically dry fuels, preceding hot and dry surface
conditions before convection starts and the dry sub-cloud layer,
even if modeled precipitation amounts trend upward, a fire weather
threat will still exist from lightning ignitions across this region.
Wetter storms working to conceal potential ignitions followed by the
hot, dry, and very windy pattern change on the horizon later this
week for this region could become particularly concerning given the
propensity for lightning holdovers.
The Elevated wind/RH area over eastern NV was also slightly adjusted
commensurate with the latest forecast models depicting a corridor of
10-20 mph sustained south to southwesterly winds over this portion
of the western Great Basin where hot and dry (5-15%) conditions will
exist through the afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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