Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into
tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds are possible.

...Southern/Central Plains...
An upper trough will amplify over the western U.S. today as a broad
zone of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow persists over
the southern/central Plains. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur across eastern Colorado through this evening,
which will promote continued northward transport of low-level
moisture across Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas. A surface dryline will
also extend southward from the low over the southern High Plains.

Multi-layer cloud cover remains semi-prevalent at late morning but
peripheral gradual clearing is noted across parts of western North
Texas as well as along the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. The
strongest heating/mixing will occur in vicinity across far
west/northwest Texas, but it seems probable that storm development
will occur within the somewhat richer moisture near/just east of the
Caprock Escarpment including parts of Low Rolling Plains and
Texas/southwest Oklahoma border vicinity. Such development should
occur by around 4pm-6pm CST as convective temperatures are breached.

Somewhat modest/nebulous large-scale ascent will probably support a
multi-hour period of semi-discrete supercells even if effective
shear is not robust and low-level shear/SRH a bit modest during time
of initial development, but nonetheless steadily strengthening
toward/after 00z/6pm CST. This will include associated threats for
large to very large hail initially, potentially up to 2-3 inches in
diameter. The increasing low-level shear through the evening will
also foster enlarged low-level hodographs and the potential for a
few tornadoes with this activity, potentially including a
spatiotemporal window for a strong (EF2+) tornado even if a more
complex mode is evolving. Over time, convection is forecast to grow
upscale into a small but potentially intense cluster as it moves
northeastward into parts of western/northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas.

Isolated supercells may also occur along the length of the dryline
across west Texas late this afternoon/evening, with associated
threat for occasional large hail and severe wind gusts. However,
confidence in any more than isolated coverage remains low due to
weak large-scale forcing. Farther north, isolated severe hail may
occur tonight with elevated convection in a low-level warm advection
regime across eastern Nebraska, northwest Missouri into Iowa.

...Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward today across
the Ohio Valley. Modest low-level moisture will remain in place
along/south of a front, with generally weak instability forecast
across the warm sector. Even so, sufficiently strong low to
mid-level winds associated with this shortwave trough may promote a
few instances of damaging winds with loosely organized clusters that
develop and spread eastward through the afternoon.

...Florida Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur today across the Florida Peninsula, with
dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high,
mid-level temperatures (-11 or -12C at 500mb) will remain relatively
cool. Scattered convection appear probable along the western Florida
Peninsula during the afternoon where low-level convergence will be
maximized. Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, although
organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 03/05/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
KS/OK AND WESTERN MO/AR...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN WEST
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night from parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes
and isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of
Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper trough over the West should split into two distinct
impulses by Friday night. The leading shortwave trough should eject
from the Four Corners across the central Great Plains to the Upper
Mississippi Valley, while a backside cutoff low evolves southward
over the Lower CO Valley. Lead cyclone should track from the western
KS vicinity across IA to the Upper Great Lakes. The dryline should
mix towards central OK/TX through late afternoon. A surface cold
front will accelerate southeastward across the central/southern
Great Plains on the backside of the lead cyclone. 

...Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest...
Overall forecast has substantial uncertainties as latest guidance
trends towards a more bimodal and less robust setup across the level
3-ENH risk vicinity. The most probable signal is for initial mid to
late afternoon storm development to occur near the surface cyclone
track in KS across the adjacent MO Valley. Strong deep-layer shear
will support supercells near the immediate triple-point region and
downstream warm conveyor, with primary risks of large hail and a
couple tornadoes. But convection should grow upscale relatively
quickly along the surface warm front, as well as the accelerating
cold front. One elongated QLCS or a pair of QLCSs may evolve during
the evening. The lead one should progress east-northeast towards the
Lake MI vicinity with a threat for mainly damaging winds and a few
embedded tornadoes, along the northern periphery of the
surface-based instability plume. Farther south, the cold frontal
QLCS should expand southwestward and progress more east-southeast. A
mix of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple embedded
tornadoes are plausible. But increasingly veered low-level winds
near the front should taper the threat overnight.

A separate region of low-level warm conveyor storm development is
evident downstream of the OK/TX dryline, mainly along a portion of
the Red River towards the Ozarks during the late afternoon to early
evening. Low-level and deep-layer shear profiles will be
conditionally favorable for discrete supercells, amid a richly moist
boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates. With
near-neutral mid-level height falls and peripheral influence of the
mid-level jetlet farther to the west/northwest, confidence is below
average on longer-lived/stronger supercells becoming sustained. Have
shifted the level 3-ENH risk to be centered on this region, where
storm development at least appears increasingly probable on Friday
night. 

...West TX...
Consensus of CAM guidance indicates an overnight corridor of storm
development to the cool side of the accelerating cold front as it
impinges on the western lobe of the TX buoyancy plume. Rather steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear could support
a corridor of elevated large hail. The undercutting nature of the
front suggests this corridor will remain spatially confined.

..Grams.. 03/05/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 051700Z - 061200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

The latest surface observations across the southern Plains/Southwest
indicate some morning fog east of the dryline, but evidence of dryer
air is moving into the higher terrain of southern New Mexico.
Additionally, satellite imagery indicates a slightly more broad area
devoid of passing cloud cover versus what earlier forecast guidance
indicated. Meanwhile, fuel conditions thought to be more marginal
near the western periphery of the Elevated area in New Mexico have
also supported large fire growth over the couple of days, indicating
that antecedent conditions are on par for today's fire threat.

The latest forecast guidance also shows that the dryline will mix
slightly farther east than originally indicated with a slightly more
northerly track of the Front Range surface low as well. This
necessitated a slight expansion of elevated conditions to the north
and east. Additionally, the Critical area was expanded slightly to
the east to account for slightly stronger winds associated with the
southern extent of the jet maximum over the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles and southeast New Mexico.

..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026/

...Synopsis...
A deepening upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Four
Corners through today, with associated lee surface cyclogenesis
across the central High Plains. This surface cyclone will shift
southeastward through the period, with a trailing dryline across the
southern/central High Plains. Strong southwesterly surface winds and
very low RH behind this dryline will support widespread elevated to
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the central and
southern High Plains.

...Eastern/central New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and the
extreme western Oklahoma Panhandle...
As the aforementioned upper-level trough digs into the Four Corners
through today, a surface cyclone will deepen in the lee of the
central Rockies before shifting southeastward. In response to the
deepening cyclone, a tightening surface pressure gradient behind a
sharpening dryline will promote dry, southwesterly downslope flow
across much of the central/southern High Plains. Critical fire
weather conditions are expected across much of eastern/central New
Mexico into southeastern Colorado and the extreme western Oklahoma
Panhandle where the best overlap of stronger sustained surface winds
(20-25 mph), very low RH values (5-15%), and receptive fuels is
expected. Sporadic wind gusts of 35-45 mph will also be possible,
with the greatest potential across a corridor from east-central New
Mexico northeastward to southeastern Colorado where a 40-50 kt 700
mb jet max will overlap a deep, well-mixed boundary layer. 

Elsewhere across the central/southern High Plains and Southwest,
sustained westerly to southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph will
overlap low RH of 10-20%, supporting elevated fire weather
conditions from southeastern Colorado/western Kansas southward into
West Texas and southeastern Arizona. There remains some uncertainty
regarding the eastern extent of the elevated/critical fire weather
conditions due to the placement/movement of the dryline. This will
continue to be monitored for any adjustments.

Some consideration was given to a potential dry thunderstorm threat,
primarily in the vicinity of the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles;
however, the potential for convective initiation to occur farther
west and overlap areas of elevated to critical fire weather concerns
appears low at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...