Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION FROM TEXAS TO
LOUISIANA

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to
central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and will likely
pose a large hail and severe wind threat.

...Synopsis...
A cold front is forecast to push southward into the OH Valley and
southern to central Plains late Tuesday as a surface low races
across the Great Lakes region. This boundary is forecast stall
across OK north and eastward into the Ozark Plateau and OH
Valley/Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday. Aloft, an upper-level
shortwave trough will approach the southern/central Plains late
Wednesday into early Thursday, and will support the steady
strengthening of a lee trough/surface low across southeast CO into
southern KS. Northward advancement of the stalled boundary as a warm
front is anticipated through the day as the surface low deepens with
a sharpening dryline becoming established across western OK
southward into TX. Scattered thunderstorm development appears
probable along both the dryline and warm front by late afternoon and
early evening. More isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected along the stationary boundary across the OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic. 

....Southern/Central Plains...
Mid to upper 50s dewpoints will be in place across northern TX into
OK and southern KS by early Wednesday with steep lapse rates aloft
as increasingly southwesterly flow advects an EML eastward over the
next 72 hours. Despite initial capping, ascent ahead of the
approaching upper wave, coupled with daytime heating, will likely
erode inhibition and support thunderstorm development by late
afternoon across northwest TX and OK along the dryline. Initially
discrete cells may organize into supercells given forecasted
deep-layer shear values of 30-35 knots; however, the general
consensus among medium-range guidance is that relatively quick
upscale growth will occur by the evening hours as mid/upper-level
flow increasingly orients along the dryline and broad-scale ascent
strengthens with the ejection of the upper wave. As upscale growth
occurs, damaging/severe winds should become the predominant threat.
While most guidance show this general scenario, spread persists
regarding the strength of the mid-level flow and timing of the upper
wave, which both may influence the overall intensity of convection
and the subsequent severe risk.

...Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic...
Nebulous broad-scale ascent along the stalled boundary will likely
result in primarily isolated to widely scattered convection
Wednesday afternoon across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. However,
westerly 25-30 knot mid-level flow along the boundary coupled with
25-30 F dewpoint depressions may support the development of a few
convective clusters that could pose an isolated damaging wind risk.
Confidence in this scenario is too limited at this time for risk
probabilities, but a focused corridor of isolated severe risk may
emerge.

..Moore.. 03/30/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the
work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has
come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the
evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the
progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low
during the late-week/early-weekend period. 

...D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to
stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward
as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday.
Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front
attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this
will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot
deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties
regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely
parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given
favorable buoyancy and shear.

...D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains...
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to
approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday.
This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a
northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s
dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in
proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon
based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening
flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing
along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS,
shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective
environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g.
30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement
among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only
emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely
be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend
holds over the next 24 hours.

...D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley...
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement
regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the
surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This
will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday
afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of
new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification
of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture
return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless,
intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the
potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with
D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model
trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality
increases.