Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
KANSAS INTO MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into
Minnesota and across portions of the Southeast today into tonight,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Central Great Plains into MN...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest will move east into the Great
Lakes with zonal flow extending east from the northern Rockies into
the north-central states.  The 12 UTC raob at Norman, OK sampled
only a modestly moist airmass (10.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing
ratio) with surface stations farther north in the central Plains
observing lower surface dewpoints than in OK.  The moisture quality
and weak forcing regime will probably limit overall storm
coverage/intensity.  However, isolated to widely scattered storms
are forecast near a weak surface trough later this afternoon and
evening.  Vertical wind shear will support organized storms
including the possibility for a few supercells, mainly from NE into
MN.  Large hail appears to be the primary hazard but severe gusts
are also possible.  Farther south into KS where deep-layer shear is
forecast to be weaker, steep lapse rates will yield potential for
isolated severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled
downdrafts.

...Southeast...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows upper troughing extending
from the Upper Midwest southward into the northwest Gulf Coast. 
Downstream of this eastward-migrating upper feature, an MCV over
southern AL will move northeast into GA later today and serve as the
primary impetus for severe-weather potential.  The WSR-88D VAD in
Mobile, AL (KMOB) this morning sampled a belt of stronger 3-6 km
flow (30-40 kt) associated with the disturbance.  Seasonably rich
low-level moisture and heating ahead of the ongoing convective
band/cloud shield will result in moderate buoyancy by midday.  This
buoyancy and forcing for ascent will promote scattered thunderstorms
developing in the form of linear clusters.  The stronger
water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of localized 50-65 mph gusts
and isolated wind damage through the early evening before this
activity subsides.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/24/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on
D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the
southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift
eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the
central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible
across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is
low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered
thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central
Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep
organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far
western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though
large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.

For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance
suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with
the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for
strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the
northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee
troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into
the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as
flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to
D7/Saturday.