WW 695 SEVERE TSTM CO UT 222055Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Colorado
Southeast Utah
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Ongoing strong-to-severe thunderstorms across northeast
Arizona this afternoon may move northeastward into the region later
this afternoon and evening, with isolated instances of hail and
thunderstorm winds as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west of
Blanding UT to 45 miles northeast of Durango CO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 693...WW 694...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
22025.
...Guyer
WW 694 SEVERE TSTM NM 222040Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and southwest New Mexico
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms in western New Mexico will spread
northeastward into the watch area through this evening. A mix of
supercells and storm clusters will be capable of producing isolated
large hail near 1.5 inches in diameter and thunderstorm gusts of
60-70 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest
of Santa Fe NM to 35 miles south of Deming NM. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 693...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
22030.
...Thompson
WW 693 TORNADO AZ NM 221710Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 693
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM MST Thu Oct 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and Eastern Arizona
Western New Mexico
* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1010 AM until
800 PM MST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...As an upper trough approaches the region, environment will
remain favorable for locally intense storms and supercells, capable
of all severe hazards including large hail and possible tornadoes,
especially for eastern Arizona and far western New Mexico.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 85 miles southwest of Silver City NM to
105 miles north northwest of Gallup NM. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 692...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23025.
...Guyer
WW 0695 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 695
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..10/22/26
ATTN...WFO...GJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 695
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC007-033-067-083-111-113-222340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHULETA DOLORES LA PLATA
MONTEZUMA SAN JUAN SAN MIGUEL
UTC037-222340-
UT
. UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SAN JUAN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0694 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 694
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..10/22/26
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 694
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC001-028-029-043-049-051-053-061-222340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERNALILLO LOS ALAMOS LUNA
SANDOVAL SANTA FE SIERRA
SOCORRO VALENCIA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 693
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..10/22/26
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...TWC...PSR...ABQ...EPZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC001-003-005-007-009-011-017-222340-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APACHE COCHISE COCONINO
GILA GRAHAM GREENLEE
NAVAJO
NMC003-006-017-023-031-045-222340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CATRON CIBOLA GRANT
HIDALGO MCKINLEY SAN JUAN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 23 00:30:20 UTC 2026.SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the Southwest,
with the most intense cells expected across parts of Arizona and
western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
...20z Update...
Convective coverage has increased across portions of
eastern/northeastern Arizona over the past couple of hours, with
widely scattered supercell structures noted through the
morning/early afternoon via regional radar imagery. Expectations
remain generally unchanged regarding the evolution of this
convection and the associated severe threat across much of eastern
Arizona/western New Mexico and the Four Corners region. Thus, no
changes were made to the primary risk area.
Along the periphery, a minor eastward expansion of the existing
Level 1/Marginal Risk was made along the central CO/NM border where
some low-probability potential for mainly damaging wind gusts may
persist farther eastward. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were
made to the General Thunder area, including some trimming along the
California coastline to the west of the mid/upper trough axis. See
the previous discussion and MCD #2399 for additional information.
..Chalmers.. 10/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026/
...Arizona/Four Corners and Great Basin...
Another active and relatively rare setup from a climatological
perspective continues regionally, and will tend to shift
east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. This will be
as the upper low in vicinity of the SoCal coast continues to become
more northeastward progressive today, reaching portions of the Great
Basin and lower Colorado River Valley by this evening.
Scenario will continue to favor supercells, particularly for eastern
Arizona and western New Mexico from a longer-duration and tornado
perspective, as low-level winds otherwise will tend to take on more
of a westerly component over time farther west across Arizona as the
upper trough approaches. Severe probabilities have been
increased/expanded northward toward the Four Corners/Colorado
Plateau vicinity, where an atypically rare setup of
deep-layer/low-level shear coincident with modest but adequate
severe-conducive degree of destabilization is expected.
As compared to yesterday, a greater coverage of storms will likely
exist by later today/afternoon, which may mean a less-discrete
nature of the supercells, but with more numerous
severe-caliber/supercell storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds and a tornado risk. Recent Tucson WSR-88D VWP data still
reflects strong low-level shear/SRH and (splitting)
supercell-favorable deep-layer wind profiles, with the probability
that tornado potential will probably maximize across eastern
Arizona/far western New Mexico this afternoon into evening,
especially where topography influences a low-level easterly wind
component. Large hail will be associated with both left-moving and
right-moving supercells.
Farther north-northwest into the Great Basin, both low-level
moisture and related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so,
multiple corridors of isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado
potential will exist this afternoon. This will be as semi-low-topped
convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating upper
trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of the
troposphere.
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
An upper-level high will continue nudging eastward from central into
eastern portions of the CONUS ahead of a significant trough
impacting the West. This pattern will continue near-normal
temperatures amid dry conditions over much of the Southeast US.
Vegetation in this area will become increasingly vulnerable to
burning, especially across the southern Appalachian Mountains and
the lower Mississippi River Valley, where ERCs are forecast to reach
the 90-95th percentiles. While generally weak winds will limit the
overall fire threat over much of the Southeast, breezy northeast
winds over dry fuels of southern Georgia on Day 3/Saturday are worth
noting. However, current forecast guidance indicates that afternoon
RHs on Day 3/Saturday will struggle to fall below 40-45% where winds
are anticipated to be the strongest (10-15 mph), precluding the need
for any drawn areas.
Meanwhile, a significant trough will bring widespread precipitation
to much of the western US preceding and lingering into Day
3/Saturday. This trough will then continue northeastward across the
central Plains before lifting into the Great Lakes region by
mid-next-week. This progression is likely to provide significant
rainfall to portions of the central Plains while once again leaving
portions of the northern High Plains (over parts of Wyoming and
eastern Montana) with little to no accumulation. While no major fire
weather concerns are on the horizon Day 3/Saturday or beyond, this
area will be watched closely should additional wind events
materialize.
..Stearns.. 10/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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