Mesoscale Discussion 0363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Areas affected...northeast South Carolina...east-central North
Carolina...far southeast Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051617Z - 051845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop after 18Z, with a few strong
wind gusts possible through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows extensive clouds near a cold
front extending from central GA into VA, with ongoing rain within
that zone. Ahead of the front, daytime heating exist across most of
the eastern Carolinas and into far southeast VA. Recently, deepening
showers were noted over central NC, just ahead of the ongoing
precipitation plume.

Gradual destabilization is taking place as temperatures rise through
the upper 70s F and dewpoints remain in the 60-64 F range. Continued
development is expected along the length of this differential
heating zone, and substantial thunderstorm coverage should develop
over the next few hours.

Deep-layer shear is generally in the 30-35 kt range, suggesting some
longevity to the line of storms later today. Given an eventual
linear mode with contributing outflows and favorable time of day,
gusts into the 35-50 kt range will be possible.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34157979 34737930 36637727 37167662 37187633 37037607
            36797595 36337612 35287672 34687738 33987840 33677881
            33527904 33537917 33727958 34157979 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an
east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.

Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support
clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.

...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/05/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula, parts of the Southwest, and portions of
Oregon, but no severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday.
Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate across the
Southwest, while another shortwave trough overspreads the Pacific
Northwest late in the period. 

At the surface, a cold front will extend across north-central FL
into the Gulf. High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest, and
a dry/stable boundary layer will envelop much of the CONUS, aside
from FL. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the surface cold
front will support modest destabilization across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon/early evening. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical
shear will preclude severe potential. 

Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the Southwest. Steep midlevel lapse rates amid increasing midlevel
moisture and weak instability should be sufficient for isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development as the upper shortwave trough
overspreads the region. A few weak thunderstorms may also develop
across portions of Oregon late in the afternoon and evening.
Midlevel moistening is expected as height falls and steepening
midlevel lapse rates overspread the area with the approach of an
upper shortwave trough. Severe storms are not expected in these
areas given modest vertical shear and weak instability.

..Leitman.. 04/05/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 051700Z - 061200Z

No changes were made to the previous forecast. Elevated conditions
will remain on track across the drawn area according to the latest
forecast guidance. While isolated to scattered clouds over the
southeastern quarter of New Mexico may limit early afternoon
boundary layer mixing, they are not expected to be persistent enough
to keep surface conditions below elevated criteria. As was
previously mentioned, there is a possibility of transient locally
critical conditions over far northeastern New Mexico late this
afternoon. However, the short duration and limited areal extent will
preclude the introduction of a critical drawn area.

..Stearns.. 04/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the West today with
longwave troughing across the Great Lakes region. Concurrently,
surface high pressure will prevail across the central/southern Great
Plains while a cold front progresses eastward across the East
Coast/Southeast. A second cold front will simultaneously move
southward across the northern Great Plains.

...Portions of the southern High Plains...
A tightened surface pressure gradient between the aforementioned
surface high over the central Great Plains and low pressure across
the Gulf of California will promote sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across the same region. With current fuel
conditions across portions of the southern High Plains some of the
driest within the CONUS, this combination of winds and RH is
expected to promote elevated fire weather conditions for at least a
few hours this afternoon. Farther south across extreme southeastern
New Mexico and portions of West Texas, greater mid/high cloud cover
should result in RH values remaining more marginal. While locally
elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across this area,
the more marginal forecast RH values coupled with greater
uncertainty regarding wind speed duration and magnitude preclude a
southward expansion of Elevated highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...