Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible
across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe
wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern
Rockies into the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge
persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes
established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop
across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an
embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will
encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across
portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse
will support the development of at least scattered strong
thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into
the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse
will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters,
which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given
adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe
storms are possible.

...Mid Atlantic...
Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface
temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate
eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints
will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE
despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and
30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of
strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts
are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible,
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

...Arkansas...
By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid
strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest,
surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000
J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular
clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of
which may produce a couple of damaging gusts.

...Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains...
By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop
the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level
impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward
toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective
bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest
elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular
complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will
support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail
being with supercells.

..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the
central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly
stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave
trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the
Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the
northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic
by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build
southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to
near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. 

...Southeast...
Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on
Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be
weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe
weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong
instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support
the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging
wind gusts. 

...Central High Plains...
Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early
afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the
higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for
strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during
the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger
flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more
organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail
will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and
very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will
also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by
forecast soundings.

..Bentley.. 07/31/2025

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
are expected in the central High Plains vicinity on Saturday.

...Discussion...
Ridging across the central CONUS will deamplify through the period.
At the surface, a cold front will extend across the Southeast and
into the southern High Plains and the central High Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected along this front through the period. Weak
shear and weak lapse rates should mostly limit severe weather
potential across the Southeast. Moderate mid-level flow and height
falls across the central High Plains may support some severe weather
threat. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be in place
with at least isolated to scattered storms anticipated. Isolated
large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. A
greater wind threat could materialize if greater storm coverage
occurs and storms grow upscale as the low-level jet strengthens
during the evening.

..Bentley.. 07/31/2025