Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the
central states today, as mid-level flow becomes west-southwesterly
across the east-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states and
Tennessee Valley. A large area of high pressure behind the front
will reinforce a cold and dry airmass in place over much of the
nation. In response, conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorm
development today and tonight across the continental U.S.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/16/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the
southern Rockies will pivot east on Saturday, becoming positioned
from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf by Sunday morning. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest
and southern Plains. Gulf moisture will remain cut-off, precluding
thunderstorm activity for most of the CONUS. With the approach of
the upper trough and stronger height falls, low pressure may develop
near the FL Straits and toward the Bahamas late in the period.
Sufficient boundary layer moisture will exist to support weak
buoyancy amid increasing southwesterly flow above 700 mb. This could
foster a couple of thunderstorms approaching the upper FL Keys to
the southeast coastal FL Peninsula after 06z, though the bulk of any
thunderstorm activity should mainly remain offshore. Severe storms
are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will move across the eastern U.S. through Sunday
evening. Thereafter, broad upper troughing will persist across much
of the CONUS east of the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will
develop southeast across the FL Peninsula through afternoon.
Sufficient boundary layer moisture will be present to support weak
buoyancy. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper
trough, and along the surface front, may support isolated
thunderstorm activity across portions of the Keys into the southeast
FL Peninsula during the morning and afternoon before the cold front
moves offshore. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026