No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 25 15:02:02 UTC 2026.MD 0056 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...Central Indiana to Western Pennsylvania
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 251500Z - 251800Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow rates to continue through the
morning.
DISCUSSION...A broad zone of isentropic ascent and frontogenesis
across the Ohio Valley continues to support a widespread region of
moderate snowfall this morning. Within this broad zone, heavier
bands of snow with rates of 1+ inches per hour are being observed.
This appears to be near the corridor of maximum 700mb frontogenesis
based on SPC mesoanalysis. The peak of this frontogenesis appears to
be from near Dayton, OH to Pittsburgh through 18Z before weakening
thereafter.
This also corresponds to a narrow zone 50 to 100 miles north of the
sleet/snow transition zone which based on KILN Correlation
Coefficient seems to have stalled southeast of I-71.
Expect this zone of heavier rates to continue through the morning
before weakening by early afternoon as the primary storm system
shifts farther east and frontogenesis weakens.
..Bentley.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 39688605 41218256 41768104 41658024 40917988 39758159
39568256 39228372 38898472 38948541 39208616 39688605
MD 0055 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...Eastern West Virginia and Virginia into the
DelMarva.
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 251439Z - 251745Z
SUMMARY...Snow has mostly transitioned to sleet from eastern West
Virginia, across Virginia, and into the DelMarva.
DISCUSSION...Strong warm air advection has supported moderate
precipitation rates through the morning across West
Virginia/Virginia and into the Mid-Atlantic. The 12A IAD RAOB showed
a warm nose slightly below freezing at around 750mb with very strong
(80 knot) southwesterly flow at the altitude of the warm nose. As
such, this warm nose is quickly warming/advecting north and surface
observations of sleet across northeast Virginia and Maryland confirm
this transition. Any areas that remain snow this morning across
Virginia and Maryland will likely transition to sleet within the
next 1 to 2 hours given this strong warm air advection aloft.
Expect precipitation type to remain sleet even as this warm nose
continues to warm given the very cold temperatures at the top of the
boundary layer (-15C) at the KIAD, KRNK, and KGSO 12Z RAOBs. The
moderate precipitation will continue with sleet accumulation of 0.1
to 0.2 inches per hour expected.
..Bentley.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 38578068 39447911 39657676 39407524 39077473 38657469
36957632 36747696 36607868 36797956 37218037 37978054
38578068
MD 0054 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...FAR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Northern West
Virginia...Northern Virginia...Northern Delaware...New Jersey...Far
Southeast New York
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 251101Z - 251700Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall, with rates of around 1 inch per hour, is
expected to continue to develop from parts of the upper Ohio Valley
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic this morning.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows widespread
snowfall ongoing from the Ohio Valley eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic. This is occurring along a broad zone of strong
isentropic ascent, aided by warm advection associated with a 50 to
60 knot low-level speed max over the southern Appalachians. The exit
region of this feature will continue to move northward this morning
into the upper Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic, helping to
gradually intensify snowfall rates. This will result in areas of
heavy snow from Pennsylvania and northern Virginia eastward to New
Jersey and far southeastern New York. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per
hour will be possible within the more well-defined bands that setup.
The heavy snowfall potential from Pennsylvania and New Jersey
northward should continue through the mid to late morning. In
northern Virginia, Maryland and Delaware, a changeover to freezing
rain is expected by late morning.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 41127934 41297761 41297613 41247459 40947379 40557364
40037371 39567396 39167436 38997498 38927678 38877868
38967970 39288035 39518054 40008053 40608035 41127934
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast
states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.
...Portions of the Southeast States...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave
trough moving across the southern Plains and into the more
single-stream confluent flow across the eastern CONUS. Surface
analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over the
central MS/AL border vicinity. A cold front extends from this low
southwestward through southeast LA and into the western Gulf.
Combination of these features compose the large winter storm system
that is impacting much of the central and eastern CONUS.
Recent regional radar imagery and surface observations reveal an
extensive area of anafrontal showers and thunderstorms from east TX
into MS and TN Valley. Much of this precipitation is falling as
either freezing rain or sleet, with sporadic lightning accompanying
this winter precipitation across east TX, northern/central LA, and
western/northwestern MS. Currently, the warm sector, which extends
from southeast LA across southern AL and southern MS into the FL
Panhandle, is free of any thunderstorms. This is expected to change
throughout the morning as continued moisture advection further
modifies the airmass and modest buoyancy develops ahead of the
advancing cold front. Despite the fast progression of the cold
front, strong deep-layer vertical shear should allow for the
maintenance of deep convection along the frontal zone once it begins
to encounter the modest buoyancy. Additionally, the strong vertical
shear should also allow for some organization/rotation within any
deeper, more persistent updrafts.
Damaging gusts appear to be the primary severe risk, with the risk
concentrated from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle into
southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle where the best
thermodynamics (i.e. 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) are forecast.
Low-level shear is strong enough to support a tornado risk in this
area as well, with the linear nature of the convection favoring
brief cell-in-line/QLCS circulations (in contrast to a more
discrete, supercellular mode). A few discrete cells ahead of the
line cannot be entirely ruled out. However, limited residence time
due to the fast-moving front and likely shallow character due to
limited buoyancy should prevent these updrafts from maturing.
..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/25/2026
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