Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of
Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough
over Ontario/Quebec Provinces will shift eastward across the Great
Lakes and Northeast on Saturday as an upstream trough approaches the
Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Slowly rising heights will extend
across the southern U.S. through Saturday night in association with
an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico.

As modest height falls develop across the Pacific Northwest Late
Saturday, very weak buoyancy (on the order of 100 J/kg) may develop
along the immediate coastal areas. Isolated convective elements may
deepen sufficiently for charge separation/lightning production.

Modest low-level moisture should begin returning to the upper
Texas/LA coast Saturday on strengthening southerly flow, with 50s to
near 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex region.
The presence of a capping inversion and lack of notable ascent
suggests negligible chances for thunderstorms through Saturday
night.

..Bunting.. 12/19/2025

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized areas of thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the Northeast U.S./Quebec Province will
move east on Sunday, as an upstream upper trough approaches the
Pacific Northwest coast. A surface cold front will move across the
eastern/southeast U.S. as an expansive high pressure system becomes
established behind the front. 

Generally weak buoyancy may develop near the TX and LA coastal areas
where heating of 60s surface dew points takes place, however little
in the way of large-scale ascent is expected in this region. Thus,
while an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the lower MS
Valley in the vicinity of the front, the overall potential for
thunderstorms appears too limited for the introduction of a 10
percent area with this outlook.

..Bunting.. 12/19/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will
feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the
central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances
across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand
north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the
Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain
generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the
potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each
day.