WW 478 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 100145Z - 100800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
845 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and central Kansas
Extreme southwest and south central Nebraska
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 845 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A well-developed line of storms will continue eastward
along and south of the Kansas/Nebraska border into the overnight
hours. The storm environment and primarily linear storm mode
suggest that severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph will be the main
threat, though isolated large hail will also be possible (especially
in the short term across northwest Kansas).
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of
Goodland KS to 45 miles east northeast of Russell KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 475...WW 476...WW 477...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Thompson
WW 477 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO TN 092300Z - 100500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
600 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme northeast Arkansas
Extreme southern Illinois
Extreme western Kentucky
Southern Missouri
Extreme northwest Tennessee
* Effective this Thursday night from 600 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will spread east-southeastward from
southeast Missouri into adjacent areas of Arkansas, Kentucky and
Illinois, with the potential to produce occasional wind damage.
Additional storm development is expected in southern Missouri where
a mix of multicell clusters and supercells will be capable of
producing occasional wind damage, isolated large hail and possibly
an isolated tornado or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north
northwest of Springfield MO to 50 miles southeast of Cape Girardeau
MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 474...WW 475...WW 476...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
31020.
...Thompson
WW 476 SEVERE TSTM ND 092225Z - 100500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercells are possible through late
evening, starting in northern North Dakota and developing southward
with time. Occasional large hail up to 2 inches in diameter will be
the main threat, though some storm clustering could result in an
increase in the threat for wind damage by late evening. An isolated
tornado or two may also occur with favorable storm/boundary
interactions, though confidence in the tornado threat is low.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of
Devils Lake ND to 75 miles south southwest of Jamestown ND. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 474...WW 475...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
33015.
...Thompson
WW 475 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 092140Z - 100400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Colorado
Extreme western Kansas
Western Nebraska
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms are forming east of the Front
Range and into the Nebraska Panhandle are expected to spread
eastward through late evening. Storm interactions are expected to
lead to upscale growth into one or more storm clusters with the
potential to produce severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph and isolated
large hail up to 1.5 inches.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast
of Chadron NE to 25 miles south southeast of Lamar CO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 474...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Thompson
WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..07/10/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GLD...DDC...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-069-083-089-093-101-105-
109-123-135-137-141-145-147-153-159-163-165-167-171-179-183-185-
193-195-203-100340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON DECATUR EDWARDS
ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRAY HODGEMAN JEWELL
KEARNY LANE LINCOLN
LOGAN MITCHELL NESS
NORTON OSBORNE PAWNEE
PHILLIPS RAWLINS RICE
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SCOTT SHERIDAN SMITH
STAFFORD THOMAS TREGO
WICHITA
NEC061-065-083-087-145-181-100340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HALBERT..07/10/26
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...SGF...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-100140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY
ILC003-153-100140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER PULASKI
KYC007-039-075-105-100140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN
MOC017-023-029-031-035-059-065-067-069-077-085-091-093-105-123-
WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE N60
TO 35 SSW GFK.
..DEAN..07/10/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 476
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-015-021-029-037-039-043-045-047-051-059-065-073-081-085-
093-100340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES BURLEIGH DICKEY
EMMONS GRANT GRIGGS
KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH MORTON OLIVER
RANSOM SARGENT SIOUX
STUTSMAN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE SPD TO
40 SSW IML TO 45 ESE AIA TO 15 NE AIA TO 60 SSW PHP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
..DEAN..07/10/26
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...LBF...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC099-100340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PROWERS
KSC023-071-075-181-199-100340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GREELEY HAMILTON
SHERMAN WALLACE
NEC005-029-031-057-075-101-135-161-100340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY
WW 0474 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 474
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW NHK
TO 20 ENE NHK TO 15 WSW DOV TO 20 S TTN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563
..HALBERT..07/09/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 474
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-005-100140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT SUSSEX
MDC011-039-045-047-100140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE SOMERSET WICOMICO
WORCESTER
NJC001-007-009-011-100140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATLANTIC CAMDEN CAPE MAY
MD 1568 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1568
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Areas affected...Central and southeastern Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...
Valid 100206Z - 100330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat within WW 477 continues until midnight CDT.
Severe storms capable of primarily damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado or two, will be possible with storms in and around the watch
area.
DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms in central Missouri continue
to grow in intensity and spatial coverage this evening. MLCAPE >
2000 J/kg and locally enhanced hodographs in the vicinity of diffuse
surface boundary should support continued organization of convection
and perhaps transient supercells. These storms will be capable of
primarily damaging straight-line winds, but given the curvature of
the hodograph/increased helicity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out. However, disorganized storm-mode and nocturnal stabilization of
the boundary layer suggest a tornado threat should be limited.
..Halbert.. 07/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38489355 38699292 38699168 38559113 38219064 37869035
37489027 36839051 36519088 36489163 36629233 37009326
37189364 37989369 38489355
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind
gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley,
lower Ohio Valley and Arizona.
...Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a 1005 mb low is
located over far southwest Kansas with a trough extending northward
across western Kansas and western Nebraska. An axis of low-level
convergence is analyzed across eastern Colorado and far western
Nebraska, along which a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is
ongoing. Ahead of this line, the RAP has moderate instability in
place over much of the central Plains. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs
at Goodland and Dodge City have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This
will be favorable for a severe threat as the line moves eastward
across western Kansas and western Nebraska this evening. Severe wind
gusts will be concentrated along the more intense parts of the line,
and isolated large hail will be possible with rotating cells within
the line itself...see MCD 1564. The line is expected to remain
organized as it moves into central and southern Kansas during the
mid to late evening, where instability is locally stronger.
Further north into the northern Plains, a cold front is located from
northwest South Dakota northeastward into north-central North
Dakota. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are mostly in the mid
to upper 60s F, and the RAP has a pocket of strong instability with
MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. A cluster of severe storms is
ongoing just to the northeast of the instability max within an area
of strong low-level convergence. Regional WSR-88D VWPs in central
North Dakota have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, which will support
supercell development with a potential for large hail and severe
wind gusts...see MCD 1565. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible with the strongest of cores.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
A very moist airmass is in place from the Ozarks into the mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, where surface dewpoints are
mostly in the mid to upper 70s F. Near the highest dewpoints, the
RAP shows an axis of strong instability located from northeast
Arkansas into western Kentucky, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in
the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. A line of strong to severe storms is
ongoing near the instability axis, and should persist for a few more
hours. This line will have potential for severe wind gusts.
Additional storms with wind-damage potential will be possible over
the lower Ohio Valley and in the Ozarks.
...Southeast Arizona...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across far
southeast Arizona, along an axis of low-level convergence. Near this
axis, surface dewpoints are from the mid 40s to mid 50s F, and
low-level lapse are very steep. This could support isolated severe
gusts with the stronger multicells.
..Broyles.. 07/10/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
Strong upper troughing will persist over the Pacific Northwest
through early next week, meanwhile amplifying ridging and southerly
flow aloft will encourage monsoonal moisture to slowly translate
northward into the Intermountain West. Ensembles do indicate the
potential for thunderstorm development on Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday
across portions of southern/central CA, the Sierra Nevada, and
possibly the Bay Area, where preceding hot and dry conditions may
increase fuel receptivity. Moisture will continue to spread into the
Pacific Northwest and Great Basin mid-week.
...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday...
High pressure will expand across the central CONUS this weekend,
yielding near-record high temperatures and very dry conditions in
the northeastern Great Basin and the northern Rockies. Beneath
upper-level troughing and strong southwesterly flow, tight surface
pressure gradients will promote gusty winds and critically low RH to
overspread portions of the Pacific Northwest into the central ID and
southwestern MT. While some uncertainty remains regarding fuel
receptivity in the middle-higher elevations, 40% Critical
probabilities were maintained where guidance depicts dry and breezy
conditions amid forecast ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile.
...Dry Thunderstorm Potential...
As the ridge strengthens and high pressure centers over the Greater
Four Corners region, the upper pattern will favor the advection of
monsoonal moisture northward where dry antecedent conditions have
led to very dry/receptive fuels across portions of the Interior
West. There remains quite a bit of spread in extended guidance,
lending to forecast uncertainty in how far mid-level moisture will
advect, and where sufficient instability will support thunderstorm
development through next week. As a result, 10% probabilities for
dry thunderstorms have been withheld for Day 4/Sunday and Day
5/Monday; however, as predictability increases and additional
guidance becomes available, probabilities may be introduced in the
next outlook cycle.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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