WW 379 SEVERE TSTM NC VA 222215Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
615 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and Central North Carolina
Southern Virginia
* Effective this Monday evening from 615 PM until 1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A loosely organized linear cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely move east across the Watch area this
evening. The stronger thunderstorm cores and related downdrafts
will be capable of 55 to 65 mph gusts and associated areas of
scattered wind damage. This wind-damage threat will likely diminish
by the late evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of
Greensboro NC to 55 miles east northeast of Roanoke Rapids NC. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW
376...WW 377...WW 378...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Smith
WW 378 SEVERE TSTM GA NC TN 222130Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
530 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Georgia
Far Western North Carolina
Southeast Tennessee
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 530 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will move east
into the Watch area late this afternoon and into the evening.
Strong to severe gusts (55 to 65 mph) occurring with the more
intense downdrafts will be capable of wind damage.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of
Chattanooga TN to 80 miles east of Chattanooga TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW
376...WW 377...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26035.
...Smith
WW 377 SEVERE TSTM CO 221930Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Colorado
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over
eastern Colorado, in a relatively moist and unstable air mass.
Large to very-large hail will be the primary risk with this
activity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Akron
CO to 35 miles west southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Hart
WW 376 SEVERE TSTM MT NE SD WY 221835Z - 230200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Montana
Nebraska Panhandle
Southwest South Dakota
Eastern Wyoming
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until
800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe/supercell thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon over parts of southeast Montana and eastern
Wyoming - spreading southeastward through the evening. Parameters
appear quite favorable for large hail in the strongest cells.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Broadus
MT to 40 miles west of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Hart
WW 375 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 221810Z - 230100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Delaware
Maryland
Central and Southern New Jersey
Southeast Pennsylvania
Central and Northern Virginia
Eastern West Virginia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop and spread across the watch
area through the afternoon, moving offshore after dark. Organized
cells and clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of
Staunton VA to 30 miles southeast of Atlantic City NJ. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
WW 0379 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0379 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0378 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 376
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257
..MOORE..06/22/26
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...CYS...UNR...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 376
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-222140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER
FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-222140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
SDC033-047-081-103-222140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WW 0375 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0375 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0374 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0374 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 1264 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375... FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES
Mesoscale Discussion 1264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal States
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375...
Valid 222353Z - 230100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375
continues.
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms moving eastward across the
Mid-Atlantic states has developed a pronounced bowing structure and
55-70 MPH measured gusts. This corridor poses the highest threat for
damaging winds within WW 375.
DISCUSSION...A bowing convective line moving across the Mid-Atlantic
has already produced several measured gusts of 55-70 MPH. Over the
next hour, this corridor will be the most likely portion of WW 375
to experience severe wind gusts before moving offshore into the
Atlantic. Additionally, the environment supports transient
leading-edge mesocyclones that will continue to support a risk for a
brief tornado or two.
..Halbert.. 06/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 38587490 38177509 37997532 37957543 37947565 37957604
38037642 38127642 38237636 38377626 38557622 38657621
38807624 38927623 39007604 39097587 39107547 39067514
38937489 38587490
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1262 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377... FOR EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Areas affected...eastern Colorado
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 377...
Valid 222221Z - 230015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 377
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are ongoing across portions
of eastern Colorado. The background environment will support
thunderstorm development through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has developed this afternoon across
portions of Colorado. The most prominent of the Colorado initiated
storms is located near Colorado Springs, CO, where a recent hail
report of 1.5" aligns with the multi-radar, multi-sensor (MRMS)
estimate of around 2". Another storm cluster, which developed across
the High Plains of Wyoming, is moving into northeast Colorado (and
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #377). This storm also has a history of
producing 1.5-1.75" diameter hail, aligning with the MRMS estimates
of approximately 2".
Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper-80Fs (north) to 90Fs
(south), which have resulted in steep low-to-mid-level lapse rates.
Surface dewpoints range from the low-to-mid-50Fs abutting the higher
terrain to low 60Fs in portions of the Colorado plains, contributing
to around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Southeast low-level winds and
westerly mid-level flow to the north of the mid-level ridge across
the area yields around 40-50 knots of effective-layer shear. The
instability-shear combination should remain favorable for sustained
updrafts to become supercells. A long, relatively straight hodograph
would tend to favor splitting supercells, with the right-mover
moving generally south.
Although storms have remained relatively isolated this afternoon,
continued moist low-level upslope flow this afternoon will support
additional thunderstorm attempts. Large to very large hail will be
the primary hazard.
..Marsh.. 06/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 37020515 39400471 39840390 41180377 41170284 41160205
37000204 37020515
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and
evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail and a
tornado or two.
...20z Update Central High Plains...
Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong to severe
storms, including supercells, are developing across parts of WY and
CO and should spread east/southeastward this afternoon and evening.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and the discrete mode should favor
significant severe hail with these storms into this evening. A
tornado or two is also possible, focused mostly along the Cheyenne
Ridge where stronger low-level shear is being observed.
...Mid Atlantic...
Several rounds of storms remain likely this afternoon and evening
beneath the strong mid-level zonal flow aloft. Damaging winds appear
to be the most likely threat with scattered but mostly cellular
storms through this evening. A tornado or two remains possible. This
is most likely near the warm front across northern NJ and southern
Long Island where stronger and backed low-level flow is supporting
100-150 0-1km SRH.
Some guidance shows an increase in storm clustering and stronger
outflow gusts from northern VA into northern MD/DE and southern
PA/NJ this evening. Should this occur, a locally more favorable
corridor of damaging winds could develop. However, this remains very
uncertain given the more scattered and cellular convection observed
so far.
...TX/OK...
Some mode signal exists for isolated convective development this
afternoon along the trailing outflow boundary across north TX from
the morning MCS. Very large buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates
could support hail with these storms. However, the lack of broader
large-scale ascent suggests more isolated coverage through this
evening.
..Lyons.. 06/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026/
...Mid Atlantic...
Relatively fast zonal flow is present today from the OH Valley into
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, with a shortwave trough evident
over OH/MI. As this feature tracks eastward, it will push a surface
cold front southward across the central Appalachians and into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Considerable clouds are present ahead of the
front from KY/WV into VA/PA/NJ, limiting destabilization and
confidence in the details of where clusters of storms may form later
today. However, given the relatively strong winds aloft and
dewpoints in the 60s, it would seem likely that scattered strong to
severe storms will occur, capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado.
...TN/MS/AL/GA...
The remnants of a severe overnight MCS are over AR/west TN/northern
MS. This system has considerable mesoscale organization with an MCV
noted over eastern AR. A very moist and unstable air mass is in
place ahead of this system over northern MS/AL, where heating into
the mid 80s will foster thunderstorm intensification this afternoon.
Damaging winds are the main concern with these storms, but a
low-level jet feature associated with the MCV could result in a few
supercell structures and the risk of a tornado or two. Activity
will track into north GA this evening. Refer to MD #1252 for
further details.
...Central High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, low-clouds are slowly burning off across the
High Plains of eastern CO and western SD/NE/KS, where moderate CAPE
values will develop by mid-afternoon. Easterly/upslope flow will
contribute to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern WY and
southward along the DCVZ in CO. These storms will track into the
CAPE axis, where favorable deep-layer shear will promote supercells
capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High
Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. More
isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the upper
Midwest.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough is forecast to move from the upper MS Valley
into the upper Great Lakes ahead of a sheared vorticity maximum
translating from the northern Rockies into the northern and central
Plains. Those features will be associated with a belt of enhanced
mid-level flow extending from the northern and central High Plains
into the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is
forecast to weaken over the upper Midwest, along a cold front
advancing through that area. The western extension of that boundary
will become increasingly less defined with southwestward extent into
the central and southern Plains.
...Central and Southern High Plains to the lower Mississippi
Valley...
As was the case for the Day 2 (Tuesday and Tuesday night) forecast
period, there is considerable spread in 12Z model guidance in the
location of any ongoing MCS(s) at 12Z Wednesday. The location of
those features will dictate the specific location of any more
concentrated damaging-wind risk later Wednesday, especially from the
Ozark Plateau into lower MS Valley. There is higher confidence in
widely scattered afternoon storm development across the central and
perhaps southern High Plains within a low-level, upslope regime. The
combination of moderate instability and 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear
will support supercells capable of large to very large hail as the
primary hazard.
There is some model signal that the afternoon High Plains storms
will grow upscale into an MCS across lower elevations of the central
Plains Wednesday night with an associated damaging-wind risk.
Confidence in that scenario is currently too low to extend the 15%
probability contour farther east at this time.
...Upper Midwest...
Lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass
destabilization into afternoon. However, where cloud breaks can
occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest
boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon
instability. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal
boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting
some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.
..Mead.. 06/22/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
UTAH...
...Southern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and Four Corners...
Dry southwesterly to westerly flow under a building ridge aloft will
bring a broad fire weather concern to portions of the Southwest,
southern Great Basin and CO Plateau Tuesday. Poor overnight
recoveries through tonight will precede daytime minimum RH of 5-15%
across this region. The very low daytime RH, sustained
west-southwest winds of around 15 mph and critically dry fuels still
supports this broad fire weather threat. Elevated highlights have
been expanded northward into east-central NV as well as the CO
Western Slope and eastern UT based on latest forecast guidance and
increasingly receptive fuels.
...Northern Arizona and Southern Utah...
A corridor of enhanced westerly winds up to 20 mph amid RH as low as
10% will yield a period of critical fire weather conditions for
parts of northern AZ into southern UT. The highlighted area was
shifted slightly eastward based on latest model guidance, with lower
probabilities of reaching critical fire weather criteria across the
AZ Strip.
..Williams.. 06/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist over the Interior West while building
into the Northern Plains tomorrow (Tuesday). An embedded mid-level
impulse will overspread the central Rockies, supporting surface lee
troughing intensification over Intermountain West. Dry and breezy
conditions will result Tuesday afternoon over the southern Great
Basin into the Four corners, where Elevated highlights have been
introduced. Critical highlights have also been introduced where
guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds
coinciding with 10-15 percent RH atop fuels receptive to fire
spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
An embedded upper short wave and attendant plume of mid/upper level
sub-tropical moisture moves into the Southwest by Day 3/Wednesday,
bringing a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of the Southwest and
Four Corners region. Another embedded short wave translates eastward
into the Interior West by Day 4/Thursday maintaining dry
thunderstorm potential across CO Plateau and Four Corners. An
amplifying wave pattern emerges late in the week with strong and dry
southwest flow posing a broad and considerable fire weather concerns
for the eastern Great Basin and much of the Southwest Days
5-6/Friday-Saturday. Troughing across the West with a building ridge
over the eastern U.S. will likely sustain fire weather concerns for
much of the Southwest through early next week under enhanced
southwest flow and dry conditions.
...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
An approaching short wave impulse and accompanying mid-level Pacific
moisture plume will likely bring a broad area of isolated high-based
convection to the Southwest, centered around the Four Corners region
on Day 3/Wednesday. Another upper-level wave edges towards the
Northern Rockies in Day 4/Thursday, aiding in isolated thunderstorm
development across the greater Four Corners region. New ignitions
are possible with receptive fuels in place and limited surface
precipitation attributed to a dry, sub-cloud layer supportive of
evaporation. Additionally, drier southwest flow, west of the deeper
Pacific moisture, will yield a fire weather threat to the eastern
Great Basin both Wednesday and Thursday. A 40% critical probability
area was added to eastern NV and west-central UT in addition to
general expansion of the 10% isolated dry thunderstorm probability
areas.
...Day 5-6/Friday-Saturday...
A unseasonable strong mid-level jet overspreads much of the Interior
West late this week as an upper trough amplifies across the
Northwestern U.S., scouring out remaining meaningful atmospheric
moisture across the Southwest. Latest forecast guidance suggests a
corridor of stronger southwest winds of 25-35 mph developing under
the stronger jet across the southern Great Basin into northern AZ on
Day 5/Friday, shifting into southeastern UT and the CO Western Slope
by Saturday. Primary changes for this outlook were the inclusion of
70% critical probability areas for both Friday and Saturday as
confidence continues to increase in a appreciable wind event,
potentially impacting nascent wildfires born from thunderstorm
activity on Wednesday and Thursday.
...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday...
Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing across the West should support a prolonged fire weather
threat across the CO Plateau, Four Corners and parts of the
Southwest through early next week. As such, 40% critical
probabilities have been added for Day 8/Monday given increasing
forecast confidence in longer term ensemble guidance. Fuels are
expected to remain quite receptive through early next week with only
some reprieve in isolated areas that receive appreciable rainfall in
the days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday time frame.
..Williams.. 06/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
| 
