WW 654 SEVERE TSTM NC CW 041855Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and Central North Carolina
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to increase the
remainder of the afternoon across the region, with wind damage as
the primary hazard.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 25
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of
Greensboro NC to 20 miles east southeast of Elizabeth City NC. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 653...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
30015.
...Guyer
WW 653 SEVERE TSTM DC KY MD OH VA WV CW 041805Z - 050100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
205 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Eastern Kentucky
Western Maryland
Southeast Ohio
Virginia
West Virginia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Relatively widespread clusters of storms will continue to
become increasingly common this afternoon, with the potential for
storms to organize over time as they progress generally
southeastward. Wind damage will be the most common hazard.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of
Charleston WV to 50 miles east northeast of Richmond VA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Guyer
WW 0654 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 654
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..09/04/26
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...AKQ...MHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC001-005-009-015-029-033-037-041-053-057-063-065-067-069-073-
077-079-081-083-085-091-101-105-117-123-125-127-131-135-139-143-
145-147-151-157-167-169-171-177-181-183-185-187-189-191-193-195-
197-050040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ALLEGHANY ASHE
BERTIE CAMDEN CASWELL
CHATHAM CHOWAN CURRITUCK
DAVIDSON DURHAM EDGECOMBE
FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES
GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD
HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD
JOHNSTON LEE MARTIN
MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH
NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT
RANDOLPH ROCKINGHAM STANLY
STOKES SURRY TYRRELL
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WASHINGTON WATAUGA WAYNE
WILKES WILSON YADKIN
WW 0653 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 653
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW AVC
TO 30 SE RIC TO 15 NW ORF.
..KERR..09/04/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RLX...PBZ...RNK...AKQ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 653
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC025-081-093-095-117-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700-710-
735-740-800-810-830-050040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRUNSWICK GREENSVILLE ISLE OF WIGHT
JAMES CITY MECKLENBURG SOUTHAMPTON
SURRY SUSSEX YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE EMPORIA FRANKLIN
HAMPTON NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK
POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH SUFFOLK
VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
ANZ636-637-639-050040-
CW
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 5 00:06:09 UTC 2026.SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of organized thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop
across the southern Great Lakes and mid/upper Ohio Valley through
tonight, accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts. More
widely scattered strong thunderstorms east of the Blue Ridge may
also produce damaging wind gusts this evening.
...20Z Update...
The northern portion of the Marginal Risk was expanded westward into
portions of northeastern Iowa to account for recent convective
development associated with a mid-level perturbation visible on
water vapor satellite imagery. An unstable airmass and modest
deep-layer shear will support loosely organized convection, capable
of producing isolated occurrences of 60 MPH winds and 1-inch hail.
Elsewhere, the western portion of the Slight Risk area was expanded
across Illinois, Indiana, and portions of Ohio, where thunderstorms
have developed along a surface boundary and may pose an increased
threat for 55-70 MPH wind gusts and 1-inch hail. See MCDs #2234 and
#2235 for more detail.
Further downstream across North Carolina, the severe wind
probabilities were extended southward to account for recent
convective trends. A corridor of higher wind probabilities was
considered across portions of Virginia, but uncertainty in the
longevity of the convection moving across the Appalachians and
overall convective organization precluded adding additional
highlights at this time.
The 30% wind threat area is expected to see convective development
later this evening, as storms move from the Great Lakes into the
region. There is some uncertainty in the northward extent of the
area owing to the drop off in buoyancy, but continued spread in the
high-resolution forecast guidance regarding the timing and placement
of convection precludes additional adjustments at this time.
Convection is also anticipated to develop across portions of
north-central Nebraska into South Dakota during the early morning
hours. These storms could produce isolated occurrences of hail,
though uncertainty in the timing of convective initiation and
maturation suggests this will primarily pose a threat in the Day 2
time frame.
..Halbert/Weinman.. 09/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026/
...Midwest/southern Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic States...
As large-scale pattern amplification occurs, a belt of moderately
strong northwesterly flow aloft will tend to overlie a frontal zone
that extends from southern portions of Minnesota/Wisconsin
east-southeastward to Pennsylvania/New Jersey. That said, ongoing
convection has effectively modified/southward-shunted the effective
front in several areas, and this will be the primary focus for storm
intensification/redevelopment this afternoon, as well into the
evening/late night.
The steeper mid-level lapse rates will remain displaced west of the
region, but ample low-level moisture (i.e. upper 60s/low 70s
dewpoints) coupled with afternoon temperatures from the mid 80s to
mid 90s will still support moderate to strong buoyancy near/south of
the effective boundary. General storm re-intensification and/or new
development is anticipated this afternoon, particularly south/ahead
of currently ongoing clusters. Bowing line segments will be the
predominant storm mode, with damaging winds as the most common
hazard.
The threat for damaging wind gusts will extend southeastward into
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening amid a very warm and
moist airmass. Vertical shear will be weaker with southward extent,
but ample moisture (i.e. PW values from 1.8" to 2"), strong
buoyancy, and steep low-level lapse rates will support the potential
for strong outflow capable of wind damage. Bowing line
segments will be the primary storm mode here as well.
...Southern Wisconsin/southern Lake Michigan vicinity...
The same general meteorological thematic scenario as described in
the prior section applies to this region, and severe probabilities
have been extended westward regionally, albeit for a somewhat
conditional/uncertain scenario. A robust reservoir of
moisture/locally extreme buoyancy will exist particularly to the
south of ongoing midday convection. The region will be influenced by
the amplifying upper ridge, but there is at least some possibility
that storm redevelopment/intensification could occur near/east of
the surface triple point and/or near outflow, with some related
severe potential. Development could also occur toward the southern
Lake Michigan vicinity later tonight as isentropic ascent increases
near/northeast of the surface boundary.
...North-central Plains/Dakotas...
While perceived severe probabilities remain below 5%, some
strong/sporadic severe potential may exist also South Dakota, far
northern Nebraska and/or southeast North Dakota later today through
late tonight, although confidence in specific meteorological
scenarios remains low.
Weak lee troughing will contribute to modest low-level convergence
from western Kansas across western/central Nebraska into southwest
South Dakota. Dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s F
within this convergence zone, and steep mid-level lapse rates will
contribute to moderate/strong buoyancy. Even so, warm mid-levels may
prevent the airmass from completely destabilizing. The remaining
convective inhibition, coupled with the presence of large-scale
height rises across the region, casts doubt to whether successful
convective initiation will occur. Any mature updrafts could result
in strong downdraft, but uncertainty remains high. Other storm
development could occur tonight, potentially as a byproduct of a
subtle mid-level wave/ongoing convection ongoing across South Dakota
this morning.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon
and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is
expected across parts of the northern Plains.
...Southeast...
Most guidance shows a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving across
the Southeast during the day on Sunday. Moderate to strong
instability is forecast south of a cold front across the region. The
greatest instability is anticipated near the coast where low to mid
70s dewpoints are likely. Mid-level flow will be quite weak, which
should limit overall storm organization. However, the combination of
the mid-level shortwave trough and the frontal forcing amid an
uncapped and strongly unstable environment should result in a
cluster of storms capable of water-loaded downbursts. A Slight Risk
has been added for the region where the greatest storm coverage is
expected.
...Northern Plains...
The ridge across the Plains will start to break down on Sunday with
a lee cyclone developing across eastern Montana. Moderate to strong
instability will be present across the northern Plains, potentially
with some stronger mid-level flow as the ridge breaks down. Storms
will be possible along the trough from eastern Wyoming into northern
Colorado, along the warm front near the Canadian border and into
northern North Dakota, and extending into western Minnesota, and
northwest of the low across eastern Montana where some instability
is expected to develop. Within this broader area, there will likely
be a few preferred zones that will eventually need a Slight Risk.
However, at this time, it is unclear where these preferred zones
will be. Greater resolution of the pattern evolution should make
these regions more clear in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 09/04/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0421 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough bringing much of the northwestern U.S. cooler
temperatures, cloud cover and rain will linger through the weekend,
ejecting into the northern High Plains by Day 5/Tuesday. Subtropical
moisture advecting into the Desert Southwest and Great Basin on Days
3-4/Sunday-Monday will likely bring additional cloud cover and some
rain to this region. This troughing pattern and attendant
precipitation will largely mitigate fire weather concerns in the
western U.S. through the middle of next week. Hot and dry conditions
under a persistent upper ridge over the central CONUS are expected
through the weekend, although accompanied by relatively light
surface winds.
...Northern High Plains...
As the aforementioned upper trough translates northeastward this
weekend, advecting subtropical moisture will provide opportunities
for rainfall across the north-central states. Despite cooler daytime
temperatures, a drier airmass and strong southwesterly flow aloft
could bring fire weather concerns back into portions of
central-eastern Wyoming on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. Critical
probabilities have been withheld due to uncertainty in cloud cover
and potential impacts from much anticipated precipitation, but may
be needed in future outlook cycles where forecast meteorological
conditions overlap rainfall-neglected fuels.
...Southern Plains...
Beneath an accelerating upper-level trough and attendant mid-level
jet, a surface low should evolve across the Northern Plains on Days
4-5/Monday-Tuesday. The increasing pressure gradient will likely
enhance southerly winds across the central and southern Plains where
fuels remain very dry (forecast ERC values in the 90-95th percentile
range amid areas of severe to extreme drought). This could pose a
fire weather threat to portions of the central/southern Plains where
rainfall deficits and cured/receptive fuels persist. However,
forecast uncertainty in RH reductions and degree of a drier,
downslope-enhanced southwesterly flow precludes introduction of
critical probabilities at this time.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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