Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that the center of a prominent mid-level vortex emerging
from the Hudson Bay vicinity during the next day or two will
continue redeveloping east-southeastward into and across the
Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity through this period.  To the
southwest and south of this feature, broad mid-level troughing is
forecast to be maintained east of the Rockies through the western
Atlantic, as far south as the northern and central Gulf Basin,
downstream of persistent broad ridging across the eastern
mid-latitude Pacific through Pacific Coast and Intermountain West.

Models indicate some amplification of the mid-level troughing across
the northwestern Gulf coast and Gulf Basin, and perhaps some
downstream suppression of subtropical ridging across the Caribbean
and Bahamas, as a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air
contributes to the southward advancement of the primary cold front
through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf
Basin.

At the same time, it appears that a short wave impulse progressing
through the crest of the larger-scale ridge will contribute to
fairly significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night.  This likely will be
accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.

...Florida...
It appears that weak forcing for ascent and instability will tend to
limit the risk for thunderstorm development along/ahead the
southward advancing front, but NAM forecast soundings suggest at
least some potential for thunderstorm development near southeast
coastal areas Monday afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near
and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale
mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from
perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend. 
Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be
maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream
troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.

Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to
another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies,
through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week
into next weekend.  It appears that this will occur before Gulf
boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry
intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist
return flow.