Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. today.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel trough and attendant surface cold front are forecast to
move east across the upper Mississippi Valley today. Increasing
midlevel moisture with the large-scale ascent ahead of the trough,
coupled with conditionally unstable midlevel lapse rates, should
result in enough elevated buoyancy for thunderstorms across portions
of the region. Given the elevated nature of this convection and
otherwise limited instability, severe thunderstorms are not
anticipated. 

Farther southeast, a slow-moving front extending from the Carolinas
southwestward toward the northwest Gulf will remain a focus for
thunderstorm development through the period. Although ample moisture
will support thunderstorms along and south of the boundary,
generally weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates within the
moist thermodynamic environment should limit prospects for organized
severe convection.

..Marsh/Halbert.. 10/03/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough will deepen from Ontario into Quebec
Sunday as an upper low moves across James Bay. A leading shortwave
trough will quickly move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast,
with an attendant surface front. However, little if any instability
will be present to support thunderstorms.

Behind the lead wave, a larger backside speed max will nose into the
Upper Great Lakes late in the day, with another surface high
building across much of the Midwest. Scattered thunderstorms will
remain possible from the TX Coast to FL, where low-level moisture
and instability (MLCAPE < 1000 J/kg) will exist. Weak shear and warm
temperatures aloft will not favor severe storms.

Elsewhere, a few weak afternoon thunderstorms may occur over a small
part of central/southwest CO over the higher terrain where minimal
instability will exist due to steep lapse rates.

..Jewell.. 10/03/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, an upper low will deepen further as it moves east across
Quebec, with strong cooling aloft spreading into the northeastern
states. Behind this system, a large area of high pressure will exist
from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into much of the southeastern
states. Given northeasterly surface winds over those areas, the more
robust low-level moisture will remain confined to the Gulf Coast
states. Here, winds aloft will remain weak, with primarily
non-severe storms expected.

Elsewhere, relatively cool midlevel temperatures will exist over the
Great Basin as a weak midlevel wave moves across NV/UT. This may aid
isolated afternoon thunderstorms, with minimal severe potential.

..Jewell.. 10/03/2026