Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact middle into lower
Texas coastal areas today, potentially with some risk for severe
weather.

...Texas Gulf Coast...
A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over northwest
Texas/western Oklahoma this morning will continue to drift
east-southeastward today, generally weakening as it approaches east
Texas and the ArkLaTex late tonight. Ahead of this system, there
will be relatively limited temporal opportunity for an appreciable
inland/northward flux of moisture. It is possible that stronger
storms will tend to remain focused offshore in the relatively richer
maritime air mass, such as is occurring this morning off the
lower/middle Texas coast, but some severe potential could
nonetheless materialize in middle/lower coastal areas, primarily
within 50-75 miles of the immediate coast this afternoon. In close
proximity to the slow-moving/stalled front, the 12z observed
sounding from KCRP/Corpus Christi sampled around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE
with upwards of 50 kt deep-layer shear. A somewhat more unstable
environment will exist and persist longer south-southwestward across
Deep South Texas, but the likelihood of inland deep convection is a
bit more uncertain with south-southwestward extent, but a couple of
severe storms could occur prior to the cold front shifting offshore
by early evening.

..Guyer/Mead.. 11/15/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A strong thunderstorm or two may affect the middle Texas coast this
afternoon and evening.

...Middle Texas Gulf Coast...
Overall, the risk of severe storms appears to have diminished for
later today.  Scattered intense thunderstorms have been occurring
offshore over the warm shelf waters, but that activity is not
expected to build westward and inland.  Other showers and
thunderstorms associated with an approaching cold front over central
TX will move into the CRP/HOU areas later today, but the air mass is
only marginally unstable with dewpoints only in the 50s.  A strong
storm or two capable of gusty winds may occur around/after sunset as
the front approaches the coast, but the overall threat appears
rather low.

..Hart/Halbert-E.. 11/15/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify on Monday
as it approaches the CA coast. Downstream of this trough, an upper
ridge will continue to build across the central CONUS, while a
positive-tilt upper trough remains in place over the East.

A modest increase in moisture is possible late in the period across
southern CA/NV and western AZ, in advance of the approaching
shortwave trough. Very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes cannot be
ruled out with this system, but thunderstorm potential generally
appears low due to very weak buoyancy. Otherwise, an expansive
surface ridge over the central/eastern CONUS will limit
moisture/instability and thunderstorm potential elsewhere through
the period.

..Dean.. 11/15/2026