Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are
also anticipated across portions of northern California into Oregon
and Nevada as well as Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau.

...FL Peninsula...

Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging toward the FL Peninsula
this evening, per latest water-vapor imagery. This feature will
encourage a surface front to settle south across the central
Peninsula during the afternoon which will serve as a focus for
convective development. With deep southwesterly flow expected across
the warm sector, the primary coastal boundary for potential robust
convection should orient itself along the eastern portions of the
Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer
heating will be noted across south FL, and convective temperatures
will easily be breached as temperatures warm to near 80F. With 35kt
expected at 500mb, 0-6km shear should be adequate for some updraft
organization, and possibly even a few weak supercells. Forecast
soundings suggest hail may accompany the strongest storms, along
with some risk for damaging wind. HREF guidance supports this and
the primary concern will be between 18-00z.

...Elsewhere...

A weak short-wave trough is expected to dig southeast across the
High Plains into MO/eastern OK by late afternoon. This feature is
expected to aid a few thunderstorms along/south of a cold front that
will surge across KS/northwest OK into the Ozarks during the
evening. Strong boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak
buoyancy, but steep lapse rates pose some risk for gusty winds with
this high-based activity. At this time it appears updrafts will be
too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe gusts.

Short-wave ridging will shift east across northern CA/NV as a
short-wave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by 01/00z.
High-level diffluent flow and weak instability suggest isolated
thunderstorms will develop within this zone as large-scale ascent
and moistening profiles spread into this region.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/28/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern
California.

...DISCUSSION...
A subtle shortwave trough will approach the Florida Peninsula on
Sunday. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms will be
possible across south Florida Sunday afternoon near a
quasi-stationary front. Further west into the southern and central
Plains, elevated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday evening into
the overnight within west-northwesterly mid-level flow, from
southeast Kansas southwestward across parts of Oklahoma. Finally,
isolated thunderstorms may also develop Sunday afternoon as a
shortwave trough moves inland across northern California. No severe
threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday
night.

..Broyles.. 02/28/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing over eastern Canada and the US will
gradually shift eastward today as ridging builds over the Southwest.
As the pattern shifts eastward, northwesterly flow aloft will weaken
across much of the central/northern High Plains. As high pressure
strengthens, a surface cold front will surge southward across the
central Great Plains with much cooler temperatures behind it.

...Southeast WY into northern CO and western NE...
Lingering dry downslope flow is expected across parts of the central
High Pains from southern WY into northern CO today. Northwest flow
aloft is forecast to gradually weaken as western US ridging
gradually amplifies and shifts eastward. While upper air support
should slacken through the day, a fairly strong east-west pressure
gradient should still maintain west/northwesterly low-level flow of
20-25 mph across the south Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge and
northern CO. With unusually warm temperatures and continued
downslope flow, RH values of 15-25% and a few hours of locally
stronger wind gusts are expected. Recent model guidance has shown an
increase in both wind speed and duration through the first half of
the day. Given very dry fuels, the meteorological conditions should
support a few hours of elevated fire-weather concerns into this
afternoon. Fire-weather conditions should end overnight into early
D2/Sunday as the aforementioned cold front moves in overnight.

...Southwest FL...
Ahead of the eastern portions of the cold front, scattered
thunderstorms are expected across parts of FL. Ongoing drought and
recent fire activity indicate receptive fuels over southwestern
parts of the Peninsula. While some rain is expected, areas that do
not receive significant precipitation may allow for some ignitions
given the potential for lightning.

..Lyons.. 02/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...