Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over parts
of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Mainly zonal mid-level flow, with embedded impulses, will
characterize the upper air pattern east of the Rockies, with a
mid-level trough slowly progressing across the Southwest on Monday.
Eastern portions of a diffuse cold front will linger over portions
of the eastern TN Valley into the central Appalachians Monday
afternoon, supporting scattered thunderstorm development. Given
upper 60s F dewpoints contributing to 1500+ J/kg of tall and thin
MLCAPE, a few wet downbursts capable of producing damaging gusts may
occur with the stronger storms.

..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An initially zonal mid-level flow regime will gradually transition
to a more amplified upper-air pattern, characterized by ridging over
the Plains states through the week into next weekend. As this
occurs, low-level moisture will continue to be shunted southward as
cooler mid-level temperatures remain relatively confined west of the
Rockies, and flow aloft remains modest at best. As a result, there
are no clear signals for an organized threat of severe thunderstorms
across the CONUS for Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday).