WW 46 SEVERE TSTM AL TN 111820Z - 120100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 46
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Alabama
Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM
until 800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms should pose a threat for
mainly severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph as it spreads eastward
this afternoon and evening. An embedded tornado or two and isolated
hail may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Nashville TN to 30 miles south of Muscle Shoals AL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...WW 44...WW
45...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24040.
...Gleason
WW 45 TORNADO MD PA VA WV 111745Z - 120000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 45
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Maryland
Western and Central Pennsylvania
Far Northern Virginia
The Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM
until 800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat should exist this afternoon
and evening as thunderstorms move quickly east-northeastward.
Occasional hail and damaging winds may occur with any supercells,
along with a couple of tornadoes. If thunderstorms can form into a
bowing line/cluster, then a greater risk for severe/damaging winds
would be realized.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of
Pittsburgh PA to 10 miles north of Hagerstown MD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...WW 44...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 26045.
...Gleason
WW 44 TORNADO LA TX CW 111625Z - 112300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 44
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western, Central, and Northern Louisiana
East and Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1125 AM until
600 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon and into the early evening while
posing a threat for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds.
Peak gusts may reach up to 60-70 mph with bowing line segments. A
strong tornado is possible if supercells develop ahead of the line
this afternoon.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Houston TX
to 15 miles northeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Gleason
WW 43 TORNADO IN KY OH 111600Z - 112200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 43
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Indiana
Northern Kentucky
Southern Ohio
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from NOON until
600 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may pose some threat for a couple
of tornadoes and damaging winds as they move quickly eastward
through the afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur if a supercell
can develop and be sustained.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 25 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Louisville KY to 170
miles east northeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 26045.
...Gleason
WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HSV TO
30 WSW CSV.
..KERR..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...HUN...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 46
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC089-103-112340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MADISON MORGAN
TNC035-049-051-112340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUMBERLAND FENTRESS FRANKLIN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S HLG TO
25 SSE LBE TO 25 N AOO.
..KERR..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC001-005-013-021-023-025-027-031-043-510-112340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY BALTIMORE CARROLL
FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD
HOWARD MONTGOMERY WASHINGTON
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
PAC001-009-013-027-037-041-043-051-055-057-059-061-067-071-075-
087-093-097-099-107-109-111-119-133-112340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR
CENTRE COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND
WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LCH TO
25 NE POE TO 30 NNE ESF.
..KERR..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-019-023-039-043-053-059-079-097-112340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE
GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE
RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
GMZ430-432-112340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0043 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 43
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W SDF TO
15 WSW LUK.
..KERR..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC019-043-061-115-155-112240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FLOYD HARRISON
OHIO SWITZERLAND
KYC011-015-017-023-029-037-041-063-069-073-077-081-097-103-111-
117-135-161-163-181-185-187-191-201-205-209-211-215-223-
112240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATH BOONE BOURBON
BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL
CARROLL ELLIOTT FLEMING
FRANKLIN GALLATIN GRANT
HARRISON HENRY JEFFERSON
KENTON LEWIS MASON
MEADE NICHOLAS OLDHAM
OWEN PENDLETON ROBERTSON
ROWAN SCOTT SHELBY
WW 0042 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 42
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MGW
TO 25 ESE ZZV TO 20 NW PIT.
..KERR..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 42
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC013-059-067-081-111-121-112240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELMONT GUERNSEY HARRISON
JEFFERSON MONROE NOBLE
WVC009-029-051-069-103-112240-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE HANCOCK MARSHALL
OHIO WETZEL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0224 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 112247Z - 120045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist
into the early evening hours across the northern Mid Atlantic
states, with damaging winds and perhaps hail being the primary
threats.
DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms on the eastern edge of
WW 45 will pose a threat for primarily damaging straight-line winds
into the early evening hours. There is still a small window of
tornado potential through at least 8 PM EDT, though forecast
profiles ahead of the ongoing storms show a rapid stabilization of
the nocturnal boundary layer. Even with this stabilization, there is
sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer vertical shear to support a
continued severe threat as storms make the transition from
surface-based to elevated. Some potential for hail exists, though is
expected to largely remain at or below 1.0 inches in diameter.
..Halbert/Smith.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39047785 39457751 39687732 40067743 40597662 40677582
40507468 40237392 39427427 38607497 38857773 39047785
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0223 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Areas affected...Southeastern Kentucky into Eastern Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 112131Z - 112330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be possible
across portions of southeastern Kentucky into eastern Tennessee.
Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible downstream of WW 46.
DISCUSSION...Loosely organized clusters of thunderstorms across
portions of eastern Kentucky and Tennessee are expected to persist a
while longer into the evening, despite relatively meager MUCAPE
evident in current SPC mesoanalysis data. Well-mixed boundary layer
profiles and strong deep-layer vertical shear will support a threat
for damaging straight-line winds -- particularly with any bowing
segments or strong thunderstorm outflows. Given the decreasing
buoyancy with eastward extent, expectation is that convective
activity should begin to diminish later in the evening, but will
pose a severe threat for at least the next few hours.
..Halbert/Smith.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...
LAT...LON 35328545 36608474 36968445 37098381 37008340 36678318
36078338 35618386 35188430 34988478 35038561 35168555
35328545
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE GULF COAST TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through
tonight from the Gulf coast into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
...20z update...
Storm coverage has been a bit more limited compared to earlier
expectations for the OH Valley into the Appalachians, though widely
scattered storms persist in an environment with relatively straight
hodographs and weak-moderate buoyancy. Some tornado/wind threat
persists with perhaps a locally greater threat for a couple of
tornadoes in PA where storms interact with a diffuse north-south
baroclinic zone.
Otherwise, storm clusters/line segments are more concentrated across
middle TN and extreme southeast TX. The TN storms will pose mainly
a wind/marginal hail threat for the next few hours, while the
southeast TX storms will spread eastward with some uptick in the
wind/tornado threat overnight as the upstream midlevel trough begins
to accelerate eastward. A separate/small area with some wind/hail
threat will be associated with the midlevel cold core later this
afternoon across interior southeast TX.
..Thompson.. 03/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026/
...OH Valley/Appalachians through late evening...
A surface cyclone now in southeast Lower MI will move northeastward
across the lower Great Lakes/Saint Lawrence Valley and deepen, in
advance of an amplifying northern-stream shortwave trough now over
the upper MS Valley. The warm sector of the cyclone is
characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s into
OH/western PA/WV as of midday. Clouds/convection have been
prevalent this morning across OH/western PA in advance of a subtle
MCV, and the warmer surface temperatures have been confined to areas
immediately south of this morning convection. Additional
thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon from
southern IN/northern KY into southern OH/WV/western PA, and storms
will spread generally eastward within the warm sector through this
evening. SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and wind profiles with long
low-level hodographs will support of a mix of line segments and
supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and swaths of
damaging gusts before the threat begins to diminish by late evening.
...Southeast TX to MS/AL through tonight...
Thunderstorms are ongoing along a surface trough approaching
southeast TX, and additional convection extends northeastward along
a residual outflow/differential heating zone into the Ark-La-Miss.
Daytime heating/destabilization and forcing for ascent downstream
from a midlevel trough (now over the Edwards Plateau) will support a
continued increase in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from
southeast TX into the Ark-La-Miss. Though regional soundings are
limited in the main part of the moist sector this morning, surface
observations and model forecast soundings suggest a corridor of
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) through the afternoon in
advance of the ongoing storms. Deep-layer southwesterly shear,
largely oriented along the convective band, will help maintain
clusters and line segments, though embedded supercells are also
possible. Low-level hodographs will be long enough to justify the
potential for a few tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or
favorable storm mergers into the band of storms. Otherwise, wind
damage will be the main threat with the line segments through
tonight.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A cold front currently pushing across the Ohio Valley and lower MS
Valley will migrate off the East Coast and down the FL peninsula
through Thursday before stalling over southern FL early Friday
morning. A dry/cool air mass overspreading much of the CONUS in the
wake of this front will mitigate thunderstorm potential for most
areas aside from the southern FL peninsula. Although lapse rates
will be very marginal, rich low-level moisture coupled with
negligible capping should yield a thermodynamic environment
supportive of deep convection. 20-30 knot flow above 6 km may
support some degree of storm organization, but very weak low-level
winds/convergence should generally limit storm coverage and modulate
overall convective intensity.
..Moore.. 03/11/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
The northern extents of both the Critical and Elevated risk areas
have been shifted southward to account for recent precipitation and
the latest model guidance. Conversely, the risk areas have been
expanded eastward as guidance trends more progressive with the dry
air mass currently blanketing the central and southern Plains. The
new Critical area now encompasses both previous Critical areas with
additional portions of the southern/central Plains also now
included. While the synoptic pattern provides multiple forcing
mechanisms across this broad region, localized areas, particularly
in extreme eastern Colorado, may see transient periods where wind
and RH thresholds are not perfectly coincident.
Across extreme south Texas, the timing of lowest RHs and strongest
winds appear out of sync according to latest forecast guidance.
Thus, this area doesn't meet elevated combined wind and RH
thresholds. Across northern Georgia and the western Carolinas,
post-frontal winds will combine with slightly drier air to bring
localized elevated wind and RH conditions to the region. However,
recent rainfall is a mitigating factor likely keeping forecast
guidance from dropping RHs any lower. Both of these areas will be
monitored as future forecast guidance becomes available.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
A robust mid-level jet at the apex of a building ridge across the
West along with strong surface low pressure feature moving into the
Northern Plains will impart an expansive west-northwest wind field
across the northern and central High Plains D2/Thursday. Lee trough
development extending southward from the parent low over the
central/southern High Plains will support a rapid transition to a
dry return flow across the central and southern Plains, promoting
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the region.
...Central Plains...
Deep layer west-northwest flow and evolution of a well-mixed
boundary layer by peak heating will support strong west-northwest
winds of 25-35 mph across much of eastern WY into the northern High
Plains. Although strong winds are likely, surface RH reductions of
20-30 percent and cloud cover should reduce a more extreme fire
weather environment. Nonetheless, Critical fire weather conditions
where the strong winds, RH close to 20 percent and dry fuels align.
...Southern Plains...
A warmer and drier air mass aided by a downslope regime will evolve
across the southern Plains Thursday. A tightening surface pressure
gradient associated with lee trough expansion will promote broad
west-southwest winds of 15-20 across much of the region. Model
guidance continues to depict a stronger corridor of 20-25 mph winds
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle by D2/Thursday afternoon
aligning with RH as low as 15 percent by peak boundary layer
heating. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across
eastern NM, TX Panhandle and far western OK.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
Northwest flow aloft will be in place across much of the CONUS on
Day 3/Friday. Flow becomes more zonal across much of the central
CONUS for Day 4/Saturday as the first indications of a upper level
shortwave trough drops through the Pacific Northwest. By Day
5/Sunday, this trough digs significantly southward over the central
Plains and reaches the southern Appalachian Mountains by Day
6/Monday before retreating northward again on Day 7/Tuesday over the
Eastern Seaboard. The latest forecast guidance continues to dig the
trough farther south with successive runs, suggesting some
uncertainty related to the trough's evolution as it moves eastward.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS
while the Great Plains remain between the two features under
northwest flow. Forecast guidance continues to show the upper level
high strengthening well above seasonal norms generally centered over
Arizona Day 8/Wednesday and beyond.
On Day 3/Friday, downslope flow off the central and southern Rocky
Mountains will continue. Minimal changes were made to the 40%
probabilities for this day. Forecast guidance continues to show wind
and RH values falling within elevated criteria. Over the southern
and central Appalachians, there remains significant differences in
forecast guidance as to how dry surface air will become under the
post-frontal environment not mention preceding rainfall. This will
be watched with future issuances.
On Day 4/Saturday, the latest forecast guidance indicates a slightly
more southerly track associated with the aforementioned deep trough.
This will allow for stronger winds to impact much of the state of
New Mexico, thus necessitating a 70% area of critical conditions.
The limiting factor keeping the outlook area from being drawn
farther west was the high fuel moistures across extreme western New
Mexico into Arizona and Utah where wind and RHs are expected to meet
criteria. However, this event will serve to pre-condition fuels in
these areas. Farther north through the Front Range, yet another day
of downslope winds will need to be watched for trends toward a
potential mountain wave setup.
On Day 5/Sunday, on the back side of the trough, expect northwest
flow to provide another day of strong winds associated with
persistent dry air again over southeastern New Mexico and much of
west Texas. The 40% area was moved slightly south over this region
with a 70% area also introduced over extreme southeast New Mexico
and portions of nearby west Texas.
Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will serve to cure
fuels over the course of several consecutive days across the
southern half of the western CONUS through the outlook period.
Regardless of winds, RHs would suggest extended burn periods across
these areas given receptive fuels.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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