WW 416 SEVERE TSTM MI WI LS 292100Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Upper Michigan
Far Northeast Wisconsin
Lake Superior
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue east-southeastward and
pose a damaging wind threat into this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north of
Ironwood MI to 10 miles north of Marquette MI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 414...WW 415...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Guyer
WW 415 TORNADO MN ND SD 291855Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Minnesota
Central and Eastern North Dakota
Northern South Dakota
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through the
afternoon, with multiple rounds in some areas later this afternoon
into this evening. Large hail will be a common concern and tornado
potential will exist this afternoon, and likely increase/maximize
into this evening across eastern North Dakota/far northeast South
Dakota into northwest Minnesota near a surface triple point and warm
front.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 130 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Devils Lake
ND to 70 miles east of Mobridge SD. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 414...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 22025.
...Guyer
WW 0416 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 416
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CHALMERS..06/29/26
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 416
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC013-043-053-061-071-083-103-131-292340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARAGA DICKINSON GOGEBIC
HOUGHTON IRON KEWEENAW
MARQUETTE ONTONAGON
WIC125-292340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
VILAS
LSZ240-241-242-243-246-247-248-263-265-292340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI
WW 0415 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 415
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/29/26
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 415
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-069-087-089-107-113-119-125-135-167-292240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY KITTSON MAHNOMEN
MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU
WILKIN
NDC003-005-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-031-035-037-039-043-045-
047-049-051-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-073-077-079-081-083-
085-091-093-095-097-099-103-292240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES BENSON BOTTINEAU
BURLEIGH CASS CAVALIER
DICKEY EDDY EMMONS
FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRANT
GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE
LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH
MCLEAN MERCER MORTON
NELSON OLIVER PEMBINA
WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BRD TO
45 NE BRD TO 40 E INL.
..MEAD..06/29/26
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-017-031-075-115-137-292040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN CARLTON COOK
LAKE PINE ST. LOUIS
WIC003-007-031-292040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BAYFIELD DOUGLAS
LSZ121-140-141-142-143-144-145-146-147-148-150-162-292040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LSZ121
MD 1385 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...Southwest
Minnesota...Northeast Nebraska...and far Northwest Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 292100Z - 292330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Surface-based storm initiation will become increasingly
likely in the 22-00Z time frame. Large to very large hail in excess
of 2 inches and damaging winds with significant gusts of 75+ mph
will be the predominant hazards. Observational data are being
monitored for a possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...The 18Z OAX sounding sampled a pronounced cap at the
base of an EML, which has inhibited convective development along a
cold front moving into the area from the west. However, latest CAM
guidance suggests that isolated thunderstorm development is possible
by as early as 22Z, but more likely closer to 00Z as continued
daytime heating and the glancing influence of a short-wave trough to
the west, locally erode the cap. Latest objective analysis indicates
the air mass is strongly unstable with MLCAPE as high as 3000-4500+
J/kg. When coupled with 35-45 kt deep-layer shear, the setup appears
supportive of supercells as the initial storm mode with the
potential for large to very large hail.
Later this evening into tonight, storms may begin to coalesce on
growing cold pools, leading to a subsequent increase in damaging
wind potential with significant gusts of 75+ mph possible. The
greatest potential for a tornado or two will exist across eastern SD
into western MN; however, the tendency for the low-level wind field
to veer ahead of the cold front is expected to limit the overall
threat.
..Mead/Guyer.. 06/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
LAT...LON 42189807 43649782 44639769 45179779 45349675 45269584
43429592 42509638 41889769 42189807
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Dakotas, Upper
Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds, large
hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon through tonight.
...20Z Update...
The most noteworthy change with this update was the addition of
10-percent tornado probabilities (with CIG1) over parts of eastern
ND into northwestern MN. Here, the latest surface observations and
visible satellite imagery indicate a warm front moving slowly
northward. In the wake of an earlier MCS, diurnal heating of a moist
air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) and steep midlevel lapse rates should
yield sufficient boundary-layer recovery for the development of
surface-based storms ahead of a surface low tracking northward
across the Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Related strong
buoyancy (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and increasingly large
clockwise-curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the
boundary will support a locally favorable corridor for a few
supercell tornadoes (some of which could be strong).
..Weinman.. 06/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/
...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Of short-term focus/concern, is a long-lived storm cluster across
north-central Minnesota that has begun to grow upscale again to the
north of a warm front. Damaging winds and large hail will be
prominent concerns this afternoon, and tornado potential may
increase particularly with southern flank development near the warm
front. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion
1379.
Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable
over parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, including
recovery in the wake of the early day storm complex across
Minnesota. While lesser instability is expected north-northwestward
into North Dakota, more modest buoyancy and long hodographs will
support severe storms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast by afternoon/early evening as large-scale ascent associated
with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample
deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor
supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and
severe wind gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity,
especially as storms grow upscale this evening and progress
into/across parts of Iowa/Minnesota.
...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline.
Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally
weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will
be capable of severe wind gusts with the more intense cores.
...Southern Appalachians and parts of Georgia/Florida...
Strong to locally severe storms capable of downbursts will be
possible within a moist/unstable environment this afternoon, with
some degree of storm organization possible as aided by a modestly
stronger belt of northeasterly flow aloft.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on
Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.
...Synopsis...
The overall synoptic pattern will not changes much from Day
2/Tuesday into Day 3/Wednesday. The upper ridge over the eastern
U.S. may shift slightly east while an upper trough persists over the
West. A series of midlevel shortwave impulses will migrate across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Enhanced
mid/upper flow will persist from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes
and over the Northeast.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to extend from northern WI
toward southeast SD Wednesday morning. This boundary may slowly lift
northward during the afternoon. The evolution of this boundary will
largely be influenced by morning convection that may be ongoing
near/north of the boundary across parts of MN/WI at the beginning of
the period. Given a very moist airmass, strong to extreme
instability is forecast near and south of the boundary. Morning
convection could weaken as it lifts north of the boundary, or it
could intensify through the day as destabilization occurs, spreading
east across the Upper Great Lakes. Another round of convection may
develop during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours along the
boundary as well. While convective evolution is uncertain, the
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space will support a risk for
severe wind gusts and large hail. Enhanced low-level shear near the
surface boundary could also result in a corridor of tornado
potential. Higher severe probabilities will likely be needed in
subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details and convective evolution
become more clear and forecast confidence increases.
...Northeast...
Large-scale ascent will not be as strong across the region on
Wednesday, though forecast guidance does show a shortwave impulse or
MCV moving across the area as it crosses the international border
from Canada. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in
place and strengthening mid/upper northwesterly flow will support
some organized severe risk. However, storm coverage remains
uncertain. Strong downburst winds and isolated large hail will be
possible. The wind risk could increase if sufficient storm
coverage/interaction results in clustering/bowing segments, but this
scenario is uncertain given a lack of stronger low-level jet. Trends
will be monitored and higher severe probabilities may be needed in
subsequent outlooks.
...Central High Plains...
A surface trough will extend southward from western SD/NE into
eastern CO/NM on Wednesday. Southerly low-level flow will maintain
modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
Southerly flow through around 500 mb will be somewhat weak, though
southwesterly flow increases substantially above that. This could be
sufficient for weakly organized convection developing within upslope
flow along the surface trough Wednesday afternoon/evening. Given
weaker instability and more modest vertical shear compared to
previous days, severe potential is more uncertain. However, strong
outflow gusts still appear possible given a deeply mixed boundary
layer and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles.
...Southeast...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop on the
southern periphery of the upper anticyclone Wednesday afternoon. A
very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, but
vertical shear appears a bit weaker compared to Day 2/Tuesday. Storm
coverage is uncertain, but some risk for locally strong gusts may
develop, especially if sufficient clustering can occur to promote
forward propagation.
..Leitman.. 06/29/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN COLORADO...AND EASTERN
UTAH...
...20z Update...
An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area was introduced across
central-northern NM into south-central CO on Day 2/Tuesday. A
shortwave trough will pass over the Four Corners region while
sufficient gulf moisture is transported into the southern Plains.
Some of this moisture is expected to advect farther west into the
Rio Grande Valley and the NM/CO higher terrain, where sufficient
lift and daytime instability may support the development of
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings depict 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE, a dry
sub-cloud layer, fast storm motions, and PWATs of 0.5-0.7" favoring
less precipitation efficiency. Lightning ignitions are possible
where dry fuels exist, and gusty/erratic outflow winds could further
exacerbate any new/ongoing fires. The rest of the forecast remains
on track, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
Amid persistent longwave troughing centered over the Intermountain
West, an embedded shortwave trough will pivot northeastward across
portions of the Great Basin and Colorado River Valley on Tuesday.
With several preceding days of dry/breezy conditions across the
region, this will continue to support expansive fire weather
concerns across portions of the Great Basin/Southwest.
...Four Corners region into eastern Utah/western Colorado...
As the aforementioned shortwave rounds the base of the longer
wavelength trough positioned across the West, a mid-level jet streak
is forecast to overspread the Four Corners/Colorado Plateau. Latest
high-res and ensemble guidance suggests that this will support a
corridor of enhanced (sustained 20-25 mph with occasional gusts of
30-35 mph) south-southwesterly winds from northeastern
Arizona/northwestern New Mexico into eastern Utah and western
Colorado amid minimum RH values of 5-10%. With several days of
dry/breezy conditions across the region, ERCs span from the 80th to
98th percentile (locally greater). This combination of dry/receptive
fuels and wind/RH conditions is expected to support critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the Four Corners region and
Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns
is forecast across adjacent regions of the Great Basin, Southwest,
and the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristos.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an established dry
airmass will maintain fire weather threats across the Great Basin
and Southwest through the work-week. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of
high pressure will continue to build across the central-eastern
CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal
temperatures with mostly dry conditions. Beyond Day 5/Friday,
extended guidance hints at the potential for a pattern change. The
upper-level trough is forecast to lift into the northern Plains,
while ensembles depict ridging may build across northern Mexico and
into the Southwest this weekend. This could potentially allow some
monsoonal moisture to advect northward; however, varying model
trends lend to lower predictability in the overall pattern
evolution.
...Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday...
Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing will sustain fire weather concerns across the Southwest,
Great Basin, and CO Rockies. As such, 40% probabilities were
introduced on Day 3/Wednesday while probabilities were maintained on
Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential on Day
2/Tuesday could result in lightning holdovers across north-central
NM and south-central CO, which may emerge as a result of consecutive
days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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