Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today and tonight.

...Texas...

An upper trough will develop eastward from the Southwest to southern
Plains today. As this occurs, a 500 mb jet streak around 50-60 kt
will overspread western/central and southern TX. The left exit
region of the upper jet will coincide with a weak surface low
traversing northeast NM into the TX South Plains.
South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport modest boundary
layer moisture northward across central TX toward the South Plains
(mainly 50s F dewpoints) beneath cool temperatures aloft. Given cool
thermodynamic profiles, as surface temperatures also will remain
generally cool, instability will remain weak (500 J/kg MLCAPE or
less). While vertical shear could support some organized storm
structures, a lack of great buoyancy is expected to limit overall
severe potential across TX. However, given cool temperatures aloft
and the bulk of instability occurring between 850-500 mb within
otherwise favorable shear, small hail could occur from portions of
the TX Panhandle/South Plains toward central TX from late afternoon
into tonight.

..Leitman/Chalmers.. 11/14/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central
and south Texas.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the southern Plains will continue southeastward
and deamplify as upper ridging builds over the Midwest. A weak
surface low will move from the southern TX Panhandle into central TX
as surface high pressure builds to the north. To the west, a second,
broader trough will intensify as it moves onshore over the West
Coast. Onshore flow will favor only modest moisture transport inland
with weak buoyancy expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible from northern CA to WA state. Severe storms are not
expected.

...Central and Southern TX...
Early morning showers and residual thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing near the surface low and along the Red River vicinity. A
surface front will begin to move southward as high pressure builds
to the north. Broad-scale ascent attendant to the wave and strong
low-level warm advection over the front will support modest buoyancy
for a few hours. While some small hail appears possible with this
early activity, instability is forecast to become increasingly
scant/shallow with time over southern OK and North TX.

Farther south, more robust inland moisture return and some heating
will contribute to weak to moderate destabilization across south TX
and the middle TX Coast. Continued low-level warm air advection
ahead of the advancing upper trough should allow for scattered
thunderstorms to develop by midday. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will
likely support some more organized elements with a mix of
semi-discrete cells and clusters. Hail and damaging gusts are
possible with the stronger storms. While not overly robust, forecast
soundings show modest turning in the lowest 1-2 km of the wind
profile. Given the low-level shear and the upper 60s F surface
dewpoints, a brief tornado is possible.

The warm sector is forecast to become increasingly narrow into the
evening as the cold front from the north accelerates southward. This
will favor undercutting and some potential for upscale growth as
storms approach the coast. Elevated buoyancy may linger behind the
effective front into the overnight hours with a low-end risk for
hail with the remaining storms.

..Lyons.. 11/14/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast over the US Monday.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging is forecast to strengthen considerably over the
central US Monday as troughing deepens along the CA coast. The
shortwave trough over the Gulf is forecast to weaken as it meanders
eastward underneath the building ridge over the central CONUS. At
the surface, a cold front will continue offshore through the Gulf.
In its wake, an expansive area of high pressure centered over the OH
Valley will intensify to 1035-1038 mb. The increasingly strong
surface pressure gradient will reinforce offshore flow over much of
the US, limiting available surface moisture. As a result, cool, dry
and stable conditions are forecast for much of the country with
thunderstorm potential likely remaining offshore.

..Lyons.. 11/14/2026