WW 293 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE NM OK TX 091955Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 293
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Colorado
Western Kansas
Far Southwestern Nebraska
Northeast New Mexico
Western Oklahoma Panhandle
Northwestern Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the
region this afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong instability
and moderate deep-layer shear will result in strong to severe
storms, with strong gusts as the primary severe hazard. Gusts around
75 mph are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast
of Goodland KS to 45 miles east southeast of Clayton NM. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Mosier
WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0293 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 1049 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Areas affected...portions of far northeast Colorado into western
Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 092031Z - 092200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail should gradually
increase as developing storms move off of the higher terrain and
ingest greater moisture/buoyancy. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may
eventually be issued.
DISCUSSION...NLDN lightning data and visible satellite depict an
ongoing thunderstorm across far northeast CO, with hints at CU tops
breaching a cirrus cloud deck. A mid-level longwave trough is
beginning to overspread the High Plains as surface temperatures
reach the 85-90 F range, indicating adequate lift to support at
least scattered thunderstorm development. Dewpoints are approaching
the mid to upper 60s F in western NE, with MLCAPE ranging from
1000-3000 J/kg, progressing from far northeast CO into western NE.
The well-mixed boundary layer in place may support severe storms
given 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and 8.5+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates aloft. Any storms that develop will accompanied by a
threat for severe wind and hail. Since the storms will likely
develop west of the moisture axis, it is unclear when storms will
experience an appreciable uptick in intensity. Nonetheless, a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance may eventually be needed.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40010245 40400301 40910332 41680338 42190312 42490246
42570184 42470123 42100083 41620054 41080043 40550054
40280080 40030130 40010245
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 1048 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Areas affected...much of the western Dakotas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 091913Z - 092145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development appears increasingly
probable through 4-6 PM CDT, accompanied by the risk for large hail
and potential for increasingly widespread strong to severe wind
gusts.
DISCUSSION...Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated
mixed-layer air (including +10-12 C around 700 mb), surface
troughing continues to deepen across much of the western Dakotas,
downstream of larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreading the
northern Rockies. The boundary-layer is only modestly moist, but
low-level lapse rates are steepening with continuing insolation and
mixing, and it appears that profiles are becoming supportive of CAPE
on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.
As the leading edge of mid-level cooling begins to suppress the
elevated mixed-layer within the next few hours, the initiation of
thunderstorm development appears probable. As this occurs, the
environment appears conducive to the development of severe hail and
strong downbursts in stronger storms. Thereafter, through 21-23Z,
convection with expanding northeastward/eastward propagating cold
pools likely will continue to grow upscale and organize, gradually
acquiring inflow of increasingly moist and potentially unstable air
advecting northwestward into the Missouri Valley. As this occurs,
strong to severe surface gusts may become more widespread, along
with perhaps at least some increase in potential for tornadoes along
the western flank of a 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 06/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 48100245 47860083 47300046 45730067 44870114 44440184
44480272 46490262 48100245
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
MD 1047 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Areas affected...portions of extreme northeastern New Mexico...far
southeastern Colorado...northern Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma
Panhandle...southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 091846Z - 092115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for severe gusts is increasing as high-based
storms develop through the afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
will eventually be needed to address the impending threat.
DISCUSSION...The boundary layer continues to mix and deepen over the
southern High Plains, as surface temperatures approach 100 F, with
50 T/Td spreads supporting 9+ C/km low-level lapse rates and over
1500 J/kg DCAPE. Very strong evaporative cooling potential exists
ahead of an approaching 500 mb longwave trough, which is poised to
glance the region to the north. As such, scattered to numerous
high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of
the southern High Plains over the next few hours, and will become
capable of producing severe (58+ mph) gusts, a few of which may
exceed 75 mph. If convective cells can become deep enough, a few
instances of hail may also occur.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34940399 35620427 36650414 37740385 38280342 38970134
38900069 38570019 38039998 37399992 36610023 35860069
35290134 34870201 34690255 34650307 34700350 34940399
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and
west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.
...Central and Northern Plains...
Current satellite imagery shows negatively tilted upper troughing
from the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies, with an
embedded shortwave trough emerging over the northern/central High
Plains. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward today,
with associated height falls spreading from the northern/central
High Plains into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Recent surface analysis shows a moist airmass across the Plains,
although notable airmass modification has occurred across KS and
western MO from an overnight MCS. Outflow associated with this MCS
currently arcs from south-central KS through extreme northeast OK
and southwest MO into south-central MO. Convective outflow also
exists over south-central NE. These features add to an already
complex surface pattern which features several lows along a wavy
surface trough from north-central MO into southeast CO. A stationary
boundary also extends northeastward from the low over southeast MT
through south/eastern ND and far northwest MN.
General expectation is for the north/central High Plains to eject
over the northern Plains, with the associated large-scale ascent and
convergence along the cold front contributing to thunderstorms
across a large portion of the northern and central Plains. Very
strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) will be in place across
much of this region, with potential pockets of extreme buoyancy
(i.e. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg) from eastern SD through eastern
NE/extreme western IA. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the
front/dryline by mid/late afternoon, along the western edge of the
greater buoyancy from the west-central Dakotas southward into
western Nebraska. High LCLs and more southerly deep-layer shear will
favor a linear mode. These linear storms will move eastward into a
more moist and unstable airmass, while shear also strengthens and
becomes more southwesterly, likely resulting in a one or more
fast-moving convective lines. Primary hazard within these lines will
be significant wind gusts (75+ mph), although increasing low-level
southerly/southeasterly flow with eastern extent could also support
embedded tornadoes. Hail is also possible within the stronger
updrafts, particularly earlier in the convective cycle.
A lower confidence, but still noteworthy, tornado risk will be
associated with any more discrete development that occurs within the
warm sector ahead of any convective lines. Primary forecast
uncertainty results from the inherent limited predictability of the
more mesoscale forcing mechanisms responsible for convective
initiation east of the greater large-scale ascent. Environmental
conditions support supercells capable of all hazards, including
strong tornadoes, with any mature convection. Two areas that appear
to have a relatively higher potential for discrete storms are
east-central into northeast ND, and eastern NE into southeast SD and
western IA/southwest MN. Stronger low-level flow will persist across
these areas, resulting in greater warm-air advection with perhaps
the realization of a discrete storm or two.
...Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft atop a diurnally destabilizing
airmass is expected to support high-based thunderstorms across
southeast CO/northeast NM this afternoon. These storms are then
expected to persist downstream into the more unstable airmass across
southwest KS, the OK Panhandle, and northern TX Panhandle. Large
hail is possible early in the convective cycle but upscale growth
into a more linear bowing segment is anticipated. Given the high
cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, strong to severe gusts
are also possible, including the possibility for a few gusts over 75
mph.
...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
Airmass destabilization is anticipated this afternoon within the
very moist airmass in place over the region. Thunderstorm
development is expected across the region as a weak MCV, currently
over central MO, tracks southeastward into the region. Shear will be
modest, likely limiting storm organization, but strong buoyancy will
support robust updrafts and the potential for damaging gusts. Given
multiple surface boundaries and the presence of an MCV, a
low-probability tornado risk exists as well.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 06/09/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and
west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
modifications made based on recent trends in observations and model
guidance.
...Kansas/Nebraska...
VWP observations and 18z RAOBs from Grand Junction, CO sampled a
60-70 knot speed maxima embedded within the mid-level flow at about
6 km MSL. Recent mesoanalysis estimates and model guidance appear to
be under-analyzing this feature and show a more diffuse mid-level
jet of around 50 knots. As this stronger flow spreads east into the
Plains it will not only yield stronger deep-layer shear, but will
also promote faster storm motions downstream across the central
Plains. With convective initiation well underway across the High
Plains of NM and CO, confidence is fairly high in the development of
one or more convective bands across KS/NE later this
afternoon/evening. With the expectation for stronger mid-level
flow/deep-layer shear, it appears the potential for severe gusts is
just as high across north-central KS/south-central NE as it is
further north/south and warrants a unification of the 30% wind
probabilities.
...Eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota...
Latest GOES imagery and surface observations show a band of
deepening cumulus within a plume of rich low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) through the upper Red River
Valley of the North. Additionally, a subtle MCV - the remnants of
prior convection over NE - is currently overspreading the region and
may provide adequate forcing for ascent for initiation within the
weakly capped and highly buoyant air mass this afternoon. While
conditional, discrete convection that can develop within this zone
could pose a tornado threat as low-level winds strengthen through
the day. The 10% tornado contour was expanded eastward into western
MN to better address this potential.
...Indiana/Ohio...
Latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensemble guidance suggests a
semi-organized convective band may emerge across northern IN into
western OH later this afternoon and into the evening hours ahead of
an MCV (currently noted over central IL). Regional radars show the
early stages of cluster development across central to eastern IL
ahead of the MCV, which lends credibility to this scenario. However,
outflow boundaries are noted ahead of some of this convection,
hinting that the overall intensity of this activity may remain
somewhat modest. Nonetheless, 5% wind probabilities were expanded
downstream to highlight the potential for sporadic damaging winds.
..Moore.. 06/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026/
...Central and Northern Plains...
Current satellite imagery shows negatively tilted upper troughing
from the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies, with an
embedded shortwave trough emerging over the northern/central High
Plains. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward today,
with associated height falls spreading from the northern/central
High Plains into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Recent surface analysis shows a moist airmass across the Plains,
although notable airmass modification has occurred across KS and
western MO from an overnight MCS. Outflow associated with this MCS
currently arcs from south-central KS through extreme northeast OK
and southwest MO into south-central MO. Convective outflow also
exists over south-central NE. These features add to an already
complex surface pattern which features several lows along a wavy
surface trough from north-central MO into southeast CO. A stationary
boundary also extends northeastward from the low over southeast MT
through south/eastern ND and far northwest MN.
General expectation is for the north/central High Plains to eject
over the northern Plains, with the associated large-scale ascent and
convergence along the cold front contributing to thunderstorms
across a large portion of the northern and central Plains. Very
strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) will be in place across
much of this region, with potential pockets of extreme buoyancy
(i.e. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg) from eastern SD through eastern
NE/extreme western IA. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the
front/dryline by mid/late afternoon, along the western edge of the
greater buoyancy from the west-central Dakotas southward into
western Nebraska. High LCLs and more southerly deep-layer shear will
favor a linear mode. These linear storms will move eastward into a
more moist and unstable airmass, while shear also strengthens and
becomes more southwesterly, likely resulting in a one or more
fast-moving convective lines. Primary hazard within these lines will
be significant wind gusts (75+ mph), although increasing low-level
southerly/southeasterly flow with eastern extent could also support
embedded tornadoes. Hail is also possible within the stronger
updrafts, particularly earlier in the convective cycle.
A lower confidence, but still noteworthy, tornado risk will be
associated with any more discrete development that occurs within the
warm sector ahead of any convective lines. Primary forecast
uncertainty results from the inherent limited predictability of the
more mesoscale forcing mechanisms responsible for convective
initiation east of the greater large-scale ascent. Environmental
conditions support supercells capable of all hazards, including
strong tornadoes, with any mature convection. Two areas that appear
to have a relatively higher potential for discrete storms are
east-central into northeast ND, and eastern NE into southeast SD and
western IA/southwest MN. Stronger low-level flow will persist across
these areas, resulting in greater warm-air advection with perhaps
the realization of a discrete storm or two.
...Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft atop a diurnally destabilizing
airmass is expected to support high-based thunderstorms across
southeast CO/northeast NM this afternoon. These storms are then
expected to persist downstream into the more unstable airmass across
southwest KS, the OK Panhandle, and northern TX Panhandle. Large
hail is possible early in the convective cycle but upscale growth
into a more linear bowing segment is anticipated. Given the high
cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, strong to severe gusts
are also possible, including the possibility for a few gusts over 75
mph.
...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
Airmass destabilization is anticipated this afternoon within the
very moist airmass in place over the region. Thunderstorm
development is expected across the region as a weak MCV, currently
over central MO, tracks southeastward into the region. Shear will be
modest, likely limiting storm organization, but strong buoyancy will
support robust updrafts and the potential for damaging gusts. Given
multiple surface boundaries and the presence of an MCV, a
low-probability tornado risk exists as well.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND EASTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in
excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and
damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across
portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday
afternoon into night.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest on
Wednesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with
this system will overspread the Upper MS Valley vicinity in tandem
with an intensifying low-level jet during the late afternoon into
the nighttime hours, providing ample support for organized
convection.
At the surface, a quasi-warm front/moisture gradient is noted from
north-central MN into northern Lower MI in model guidance during the
morning. This boundary may lift northward through the day, though
some influence from the Great Lakes may maintain this gradient
across northern WI/MI. Otherwise the surface cold front will be
located from northwest MN into northwest KS by midday. This boundary
will march eastward through the period, becoming oriented from Upper
MI/central WI to southeast NE by Thursday morning. The southern
extent of the front will stall over KS as a surface low deepens
across the central Plains overnight in response to another upper
shortwave trough ejecting over the Rockies/High Plains.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity into northeast KS...
A somewhat complex scenario is evident for Wednesday, with potential
for more than one round of severe storms possible for parts of the
region, particularly IA/WI/IL. This complex scenario will be
influence by potential remnant MCVs and outflows from Day 2/Tuesday
convection persisting into Wednesday morning or migrating into the
area by early afternoon ahead of the main synoptic front. Additional
convection will then also be possible along the main front late
afternoon into the nighttime hours.
Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the region,
with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F common. Steep
lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will support
moderate to strong instability from 2000-4000 J/kg. Initial storm
development will be supercells given favorable vertically veering
shear profiles with 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes over a large
area. With time, one or more bowing clusters may develop via cold
pool consolidation and linear organization along the cold front as a
40+ kt low-level jet develops by early evening. Initial large to
very large hail and a strong tornado risk will accompany discrete
cells. Damaging wind potential will be greater with more linear
storm mode and some gusts could be greater than 75 mph with these
organized linear modes.
During the early evening, additional convection is expected to
develop along the surface boundary from northeast KS into northwest
MO and southern IA. Some forecast guidance (particularly the RAP)
suggests this zone may be particularly favorable for supercell
development as the low-level jet increases. Large to very large
hail, damaging gusts a possibly a strong tornado will be possible
with this convection along the southwest extent of the surface
front. Overnight, additional storms may develop across eastern NE
into western IA in a warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough
ejecting into the central High Plains after 06z. This activity will
likely be elevated, but would still pose a risk for large hail and
perhaps strong wind gusts.
...South-central KS into western OK and the TX Panhandle...
Vertical shear will become more limited with southwest extent on
Wednesday. Capping also may limit storm development/coverage into
the TX Panhandle. Nevertheless, any storms that do development will
likely be somewhat higher-based and pose a risk for strong outflow
winds. Large to very large hail will also be possible with any
longer-lived storms given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong
instability and elongated/straight forecast hodographs.
...Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic...
A weak midlevel shortwave trough will migrate across the region on
Wednesday. This will result in modestly enhanced vertical shear as
midlevel flow increases during peak heating. At the surface, rich
boundary layer moisture will overspread the area. Dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s F and strong heating into the 80s F will result in
moderate destabilization. Morning convection may be ongoing across
portions of the Delmarva vicinity, resulting in uncertainty with
regards to the extent of afternoon severe potential, but at least
isolated potential for strong gusts is possible from NY/PA/NJ
southward into the Delmarva.
..Leitman.. 06/09/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, large hail, and destructive winds appear likely from
portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
upper Great Lakes. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and
large hail are possible across the southern Plains, upper Ohio
Valley and lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
...Synopsis...
A compact but potent upper shortwave trough, characterized by a
60-80 kt 500 mb jet streak, will move across the central Plains and
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. A strong low-level
jet will likely be oriented across parts of MO/KS/OK Thursday
morning. Some weakening of this feature will occur as it spreads
northeast through the morning, but re-invigoration of the low-level
jet is forecast by mid/late afternoon.
At the surface, low pressure initially over central KS will develop
northeast toward Lake Michigan through 00z, and cross the
international border by 12z Friday. A cold front/composite outflow
from prior convection is expected to be oriented from northern
WI/Upper MI southwestward into northwest OK by midday. The northern
extent of the boundary will progress eastward across much of the
Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley through the period, while the western
extent stalls over OK and the TX Panhandle.
...Upper Great Lakes to Lower MO/Mid-MS and Lower Ohio Valleys...
An MCS may be ongoing in the vicinity of eastern NE/southwest IA
Thursday morning. Ahead of this feature and the aforementioned cold
front, a very moist airmass will remain in place across the Midwest
(upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints). Strong destabilization will be
possible (2500-4500 J/kg). Reintensification or redevelopment of
morning convection is possible as this activity encounters the
instability gradient from eastern IA into northern IL and Lower MI.
Favorable vertical shear profiles will support supercells and bowing
segments capable of significant wind gusts, large hail (with more
discrete convection), and strong tornadoes through the afternoon,
centered on eastern IA, northern IL, far southern WI and perhaps as
far east as southern Lower MI/northern IN.
With time, additional convection will develop along the cold front
from central IL into southwest MO. Very large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the main hazard with this activity as it spread
east/southeast across the Ozarks and toward the Lower Ohio Valley
through evening.
...Southern Plains...
Convective coverage is a bit more uncertain with southwest extent
into OK/TX. Stronger large-scale ascent will be focused further
northeast, but strong instability, rich boundary layer moisture and
steep lapse rates near the sagging cold front and a dryline should
foster at least isolated storm development where capping can be
overcome. Supercells in this environment would pose a risk for
severe wind gusts and large hail.
...Upper Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic...
A weak disturbance is forecast to move through an upper ridge across
the region, resulting in modest enhancement to northwesterly flow
aloft. Strong heating and rich boundary layer moisture will support
moderate destabilization during the afternoon/early evening.
Scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to isolated
severe wind gusts and sporadic wind damage.
..Leitman.. 06/09/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING AND FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...
No changes were made to the drawn areas. Although consideration was
given to small expansions along the eastern extent of the Elevated
risk in the central High Plains, recent rainfall has mitigated fuel
receptivity. While localized areas along the eastern edge of the
area in Nebraska may still promote fire growth, fuels conditions
have moderated at least slightly. Elsewhere, the latest forecast
guidance remains on track with the Elevated risk across much of the
central/southern Intermountain West and the northern Sacramento
Valley. Across portions of southeast UT, a fairly small corridor may
experience localized areas of briefly critical winds
(west-southwesterly at 15-25 mph) amidst the widespread warm and dry
(RH of 8-15%) conditions. Even so, with sporadic fuel loading over
this area, an Elevated risk was maintained.
..Stearns.. 06/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
An elongated upper trough will expand from the Pacific Northwest to
the Upper Midwest as an upper low emerges along the northern
MT/Canadian border. Amplified westerly flow aloft and surface
troughing will enhance windy conditions amid a dry airmass across
the Great Basin and central Plains, continuing fire weather concerns
into Day 2/Wednesday. At the base of the exiting upper trough, deep
northerly flow will promote dry and breezy conditions into the
Sacramento Valley where dry fine fuels exist.
...Eastern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and central High Plains...
Strong westerly surface winds in the wake of a cold front below a
pronounced 60-70 kt mid-level jet will continue fire weather
concerns to portions of the central Plains on Day 2/Wednesday.
Critical highlights have been introduced to eastern WY and far
western NE Panhandle where west winds of 25-30 mph and RH as low as
15% align with pockets of dry fuels. Weaker, but still impactful
westerly flow will support Elevated fire weather conditions in the
eastern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and Four Corners regions as
westerly 10-15 mph winds (locally 20 mph) and RH values of 10-15%
overlap dry fuels.
...Sacramento Valley...
Dry, post-frontal northerly flow funneling into the Sacramento
Valley will promote an Elevated fire weather threat to the region
and adjacent valley foothills. Sustained northerly winds of 10-15
mph (locally up to 20 mph) and RH at or below 15% are expected to
coalesce amid receptive fuels to support fire spread. Dry and breezy
conditions may persist into the overnight hours, leading to an
extended burning period and continued fire weather concerns on Day
3/Thursday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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