Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians.

...Southern Appalachians...
At mid-levels, a low and an associated shortwave trough will move
eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the
system, a surface trough will be in place from central Alabama
northeastward into eastern Tennessee. Surface dewpoints near the
trough will be in the mid to upper 60s F, which will help MLCAPE
increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg by afternoon. As low-level
convergence becomes focused this afternoon along and near the
trough, scattered thunderstorms will form. RAP forecast soundings
near the instability axis at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40
knot range, with steep low-level lapse rates. This may support a
potential for isolated severe gusts and hail with the stronger
multicells. The severe threat should be concentrated around peak
heating.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/23/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on tomorrow (Thursday).High

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest while upper
ridging persists over the Plains states and another upper trough
meanders off of the Atlantic Coast tomorrow (Thursday). An embedded
mid-level impulse will progress northeast from the Southwest to the
central Rockies, promoting enough deep-layer ascent to support a
wide swath of showers and scattered thunderstorms across portions of
the Interior West to the central Plains. Seasonable low-level
moisture with modestly cooler temperatures aloft may promote an
instance of hail or strong wind gusts across the Southwest to the
central and southern High Plains. However, an appreciable overlap of
deep-layer shear and buoyancy will be lacking overall, precluding
severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will flatten across the central U.S. as a
mid-level trough progresses eastward across the northwestern CONUS,
resulting in the ejection of multiple preceding mid-level impulses
into the Plains states on Friday. One impulse will encourage surface
lee trough strengthening over the southern High Plains, along with
enough deep-layer ascent to encourage widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. While a strong gust or sparse instance of
hail cannot be ruled out, modest vertical wind shear and poor
tropospheric lapse rates should limit the severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026