Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will remain minimal today for a majority of
the CONUS, with a few exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms may occur
along/near parts of the Gulf Coast as a cold front continues to
advance offshore, with a low chance for additional elevated
thunderstorms late tonight into early Monday morning for portions of
coastal TX. Isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist mainly
this afternoon/early evening across the southern FL Peninsula/Keys,
and separately across parts of UT. Limited instability and/or shear
will preclude severe thunderstorms across all these regions.

..Gleason.. 11/30/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along the
Gulf Coast Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Severe
thunderstorms are not currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front pushing into the northern Gulf today is
forecast to stall early Monday morning before gradually advancing
northward as a warm front late Monday night/early Tuesday morning
ahead of an approaching upper wave. Elevated thunderstorms are
possible beginning Monday morning within the warm advection regime
across the TX Gulf Coast into portions of the Southeast and Carolina
coast through the early morning hours Tuesday. 

...FL Panhandle Coast...
Any appreciable chance for surface-based convection will likely come
during the 09-12 UTC Tuesday period as a surface low intensifies
over GA and supports inland return of mid-60 F dewpoints into the FL
Panhandle region. Despite this moisture return, poor mid-level lapse
rates will limit overall buoyancy values with most guidance
depicting surface-based lifted indices of around -1 Celsius. Strong
low-level kinematic fields in the vicinity of the intensifying low
could potentially support a severe wind/tornado threat if low-level
moistening/destabilization is sufficient for deep convection;
however, most forecast solutions suggest dewpoints above 67 F may be
required for this to occur. Getting such dewpoints inland beyond the
immediate coast prior to 12z appears improbable (25% chance) based
on recent ensemble guidance, so any severe probabilities continue to
be withheld.

..Moore.. 11/30/2025

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 301700Z - 011200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain negligible across the
CONUS today.

..Elliott.. 11/30/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025/

...Synopsis...
A cold post-frontal air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across
the CONUS.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...