URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Kansas
  Western Missouri

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until
  700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to further develop near
a boundary and probably become more surface-based over time, with
large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest
of Manhattan KS to 30 miles east southeast of Kansas City MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.

...Guyer

STATUS FOR WATCH 0149 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. A couple of
strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are
possible.

...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Fairly substantial changes have been made to the outlook based on
latest observational and guidance trends. Namely, the Enhanced Risk
has been expanded into northern OK to account for the potential of
both surface-based supercells this afternoon, and elevated
supercells this evening/tonight. The Slight Risk has been expanded
southward into north-central TX for a somewhat more
conditional/uncertain supercell threat. The eastern extent of severe
probabilities have also been expanded in MO to account for a
potential cluster producing severe/damaging winds occurring late
tonight into early Monday morning.

A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains
this morning should continue to aid elevated thunderstorm
development across KS through the afternoon. Increasing MUCAPE with
persistent low-level warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level
lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This
convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a
front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but
scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable
environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible
with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a
greater threat for damaging winds across eastern KS into western MO
by late afternoon/early evening, if it can become truly surface
based.

A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject
northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans
today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak
lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast
CO/northeast NM vicinity in response, with the surface low
developing into the OK Panhandle and southwest KS by this evening.
Strong to locally extreme instability is once again forecast to
develop to the east of a sharpening dryline across western/central
OK as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a
fair amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm
front by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are
for this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central OK by
peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a
focus for convective initiation today, although better large-scale
ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough overspreading
the warm sector will be delayed until this evening and past peak
diurnal heating.

Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for
surface-based convective initiation today in OK/north TX. Still, it
appears possible that multiple supercells may develop with gradual
erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding the ejecting
shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and ingest the ample
low-level moisture will be capable of producing very large hail
(2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather favorable
environment. The tornado potential is less clear through the day,
but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this evening
and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective SRH. A
somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong
tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can
form this afternoon persist into the evening.

Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into
tonight along/north of the warm front from northwest OK near the
triple point into KS. This activity will also pose a threat for
large to very large hail. Some guidance suggests a cluster
eventually evolves from this convection across eastern KS into MO
late tonight/early Monday morning. If this occurs, then a greater
threat for severe/damaging winds would exist.

Farther south into TX, the forcing for ascent will remain
weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few
supercells is apparent across north-central TX where the greatest
heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large
hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that
can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be
sustained.

...ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
A small cluster will continue tracking southeastward this morning
from southern MS to the central Gulf Coast. With sufficient
low-level moisture and instability in place ahead of this
convection, isolated damaging winds may occur. A pair of supercells
across northeast TX have fluctuated in intensity over the past
couple of hours. The potential for additional thunderstorms to form
on the western flank/outflow of this morning convection remains
unclear given weak large-scale forcing and the low-level jet
forecast to weaken further through the morning. If any additional
convection can form, it would pose an isolated severe hail and
damaging wind threat.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/26/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower
Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to
2-3 inches in diameter are possible.

...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Appreciable severe potential is still readily apparent especially
later this afternoon into tonight, although sub-regional details
remain quite complex, particularly regarding the southern extent of
deep convective initiation southward along the dryline.

A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains
early today will continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development
across Kansas through the afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 547
for short-term details. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level
warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level
lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This
convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a
front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but
scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable
environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible
with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a
greater threat for damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western
Missouri by late afternoon/early evening.

A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject
northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans
today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak
lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast
Colorado/northeast New Mexico vicinity in response, with the surface
low developing into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas by
this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is forecast to
develop east of a sharpening dryline across western/central Oklahoma
as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front
by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for
this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central Oklahoma by
peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a
focus for convective initiation later today into this evening,
although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level
shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until
this evening and past peak diurnal heating.

Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for
surface-based convective initiation today in Oklahoma/north Texas,
but the volatile environment and ample conditional-type potential is
concerning. It appears possible that multiple supercells may develop
with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding
the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and
ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing
very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather
favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through
the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this
evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective
SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong
tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can
form this afternoon persist into the evening.

Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into
tonight along/north of the warm front from northern Oklahoma near
the triple point into Kansas. This activity will also pose a threat
for large to very large hail and possibly an increasing
tornado/damaging wind risk. 

Farther south into Texas, the forcing for ascent will remain
weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few
supercells is apparent across north-central Texas where the greatest
heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large
hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that
can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be
sustained.

..Guyer/Barnes.. 04/26/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

...Discussion...
A potent shortwave will move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Monday, with strong mid-level flow
over spreading the region. As a result, a surface low will deepen
across the central Plains and move eastward into northern
Missouri/southern Iowa, with attendant cold front shifting south and
east and northward lifting warm front. A dryline will be in place
ahead of the approaching cold front from western Missouri southward
into south into eastern Oklahoma. This will eventually be overtaken
by the cold front. 

Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the Monday period,
with a remnant MCS moving across central Missouri and spurious
convection to the north across Iowa. Additional thunderstorm
development in the afternoon will be highly conditional on the track
and maintenance of this morning MCS. Nonetheless, it appears that
severe storms will develop by the afternoon along and ahead of the
cold front and in the vicinity of the lifting warm front with the
primary risks for large to very large hail, tornadoes (a few of
which may be strong), and an eventual evolution to potential for
damaging winds towards the late afternoon/evening.

...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
The morning convection across northern Missouri into Iowa makes for
complex forecast Monday afternoon. Initially, the morning MCS and
spurious convection to the north may pose a low wind/hail risk. Once
this shifts eastward, uncertainty remains in how the air mass will
evolve into the afternoon. Guidance seems to suggest that strong
daytime heating, albeit somewhat filtered through mid-level cloud
debris, will occur with air mass recovery across Missouri into
southern Iowa. The strengthening low-level jet will usher in a plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates and upper 60's dew points.
Confidence is highest in a better corridor of
heating/destabilization across central/southern Missouri into
central Illinois. As such, hail and tornado probabilities were
shifted south and west. Initial supercells in this region will be
capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter)
and tornadoes (perhaps some strong).

A more conditional threat exists further north across northern
Missouri into southern Iowa near the lifting warm front. A warm
front will lift northward with reinforcement from remnant outflow
producing a zone of differential heating. Should better heating and
recovery be able to occur in this region, potential for supercells
with large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches in diameter) and
strong tornadoes will be possible. 

As the cold front shifts southward, mode will become more mixed and
linear with time, with an increase in the damaging wind risk.
However, line embedded circulations will may continue to pose a risk
for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing
gust fronts of convective outflow. This will extend into central
Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee into the late
evening.

..Thornton.. 04/26/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...Southern Plains...
A stalled frontal boundary across northwest TX and the TX Panhandle
introduced extensive cloud cover and much higher relative humidity
north of the boundary overnight. Current satellite and surface
observation trends show a gradual erosion of the cloud cover across
southern KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Latest short term model
guidance suggests a limited northeastward extent and onset of the
overall fire weather threat as a warm front evolves this afternoon.
This should restrict duration and northeast extent of fire-effective
weather conditions across the northeastern TX and adjacent OK
Panhandles. Thus, critical and elevated highlights have been trimmed
across portions of western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles for this
forecast update.

Extremely Critical fire weather conditions, including southwest
winds of 30-40 mph, with localized gusts near 60 mph, are still
expected across portions the southern High Plains today. The winds,
aided by an intense mid-level jet and associated lee surface cyclone
development across southeastern CO, will combine with surface RH
reductions of 10-20% to promote an extremely critical fire weather
threat across portions of eastern NM into far western TX Panhandle
this afternoon. A broader critical fire weather concern is still
expected across much of the southern High Plains into central and
southern NM, with no additional highlight changes.

..Williams.. 04/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/

...Synopsis...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning
water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing
the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the
Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into
the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady
deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the
day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the
southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble
output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely
across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath
of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far
western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of
the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will
support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions.

A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High
Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely
in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope
warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon.
Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to
mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range
again today.

Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning
across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests
little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of
dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the
85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support
the fire weather concern.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...