Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.

... Synopsis ...

Broad upper troughing will remain in place across the western
contiguous US today. Within this regime, a shortwave trough over the
southern and central High Plains will eject northeastward toward the
upper Mississippi Valley, accompanied by a weak surface low. A
trailing cold front will extend southwestward from this low across
the central Plains into the southern High Plains, with a lee trough
sharpening along its western flank. Farther west, an upper cyclone
will deepen as it digs southeastward across the northern Great Basin
and Intermountain West. 


... Southern High Plains into the Midwest ...

Surface dewpoints in the mid 50Fs to near 60 F will remain in place
ahead of the slow-moving baroclinic zone/surface boundary today.
Diurnal heating of this modestly moist boundary layer will yield
weak destabilization from southern and eastern New Mexico and Far
West Texas northeastward into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and
southwest Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front
and lee trough during the late afternoon and evening, with
additional development probable farther northeast into the Midwest
overnight as low-level warm air advection strengthens. 

Buoyancy will be somewhat greater across southern New Mexico and Far
West Texas, where a few stronger cores could produce hail or gusty
winds. Even there, modest deep-layer shear and warm/warming midlevel
temperatures in the wake of the departing midlevel trough should
limit updraft intensity and organization. Thus, severe probabilities
are currently not warranted. 


... Idaho and surrounding areas ...

Cooling midlevel temperatures and large-scale ascent accompanying
the digging upper cyclone will steepen lapse rates across Idaho and
adjacent areas during the afternoon. Despite limited moisture,
sufficient buoyancy may materialize to support isolated low-topped
thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the evening. Strong flow
aloft could support locally gusty winds, and hail could accompany
stronger thunderstorm cores. The cool surface temperatures and
limited instability should limit any severe threat.

..Marsh/Thornton.. 10/26/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A series of upper shortwave troughs will move across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as the southern Plains to the
Mid-MS Valley on Tuesday. Boundary layer moisture will remain
modest, with dewpoints generally in the 50s across the Plains and
Midwest, while 60s dewpoints remain confined to central/south TX.
Warmer midlevel temperatures will preclude much destabilization from
the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. This will largely
limit thunderstorm activity and negate severe thunderstorm potential
despite stronger southwesterly flow aloft. Further south across TX,
isolated thunderstorms are more likely where weak destabilization
will occur amid marginally better moisture and stronger heating.
However, vertical shear will remain modest as the region is
displaced to the south of stronger flow across the north-central
U.S. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous within a broad
low-level warm advection regime. Overall, severe thunderstorm
potential appears low for Tuesday.

..Leitman.. 10/26/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude west/southwesterly upper-level flow regime will
overspread much of the CONUS on Wednesday. Stronger westerlies will
extend from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes, weakening with
southward extent. Surface high pressure will be focused over the
eastern U.S., while modest surface troughing extends from the Upper
Midwest to the southern High Plains. South/southwesterly low-level
flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward across
portions of the southern/central Plains and into the Upper MS
Valley. Isolated thunderstorm activity will be possible within this
plume of modest moisture and weak destabilization. Any stronger
instability is forecast to be across the southern Plains,
particularly TX, where deeper moisture will be in place (compared to
further north). However, weak vertical shear and a lack of focused
ascent will limit severe potential. Further north across the Upper
Midwest, instability will be weaker given a cooler and less moist
airmass, precluding severe potential, despite stronger deep-layer
west/southwesterly flow.

..Leitman.. 10/26/2026