Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds and hail appear
possible over the Ozark Plateau and central and southern High Plains
Friday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous short-wave trough over the upper Midwest into the mid MO
Valley Friday morning will progress into the mid MS Valley with a
belt of 30-35 kt mid-level flow forecast within the western through
southern periphery of that feature. In the low levels, a surface low
is expected to deepen slightly while developing through IA into
west-central IL with a north-south-oriented warm front preceding the
cyclone. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will move through the
lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau with the western extension of the
boundary advancing through the southern High Plains.


...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning
ahead of the surface low from central and eastern IA into MO within
a zone of warm advection and moist transport along a 30-40 kt
low-level jet (LLJ). The LLJ will be maintained through the forecast
period ahead of the surface-850 mb low with the same processes
likely sustaining showers and thunderstorms near and to the east of
the associated warm front/moisture discontinuity. A zone of enhanced
low-level shear will coincide with the LLJ axis; however, it remains
unclear whether sufficient surface-based destabilization will occur
within the narrow warm sector over the mid MS Valley for a tornado
threat to materialize.

Isolated severe storms appear more probable along and ahead of the
cold front over the Ozark Plateau Friday afternoon into evening,
where a wider and more unstable warm sector is expected to reside.
The presence of a vertically veering wind profile with modestly
strong low-level and deep-layer shear may be sufficient for some
storm organization and an associated damaging wind and possible
tornado threat. Only a 5% probability and level 1/Marginal Risk will
be included in this forecast due to uncertainty in surface-based
storm coverage.


...Central and southern High Plains...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible Friday
afternoon into evening within a moist and moderately unstable
post-frontal upslope regime. Sufficient deep-layer shear is forecast
to support some storm organization with an associated risk for
marginally severe hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Saturday...

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH
Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast
states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same
track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances
through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a
modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon
ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys. 

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS
Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal
low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain
uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of
boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of
moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the
afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow
boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to
remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the
potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across
parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could
contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise,
locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail
appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and
evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime. 


...Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday...

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong
short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing
along the international border from the northern Rockies into the
northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into
southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer
moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains
into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse
rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will
support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday
and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East
Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through
the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley. 


...Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday...

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced
mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes,
between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the
Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the
central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and
perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south
side of the upper high.