WW 237 SEVERE TSTM TX 202015Z - 210300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
315 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 315 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will develop off the Davis Mountains
and spread eastward this afternoon and evening, posing a risk of
large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south
southwest of Marfa TX to 35 miles east northeast of Dryden TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 234...WW 235...WW 236...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Hart
WW 236 SEVERE TSTM KY OH VA WV 201950Z - 210100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kentucky
Southern Ohio
Extreme Southwest Virginia
Central and Southern West Virginia
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM
until 900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over Kentucky will track eastward in a
warm/unstable air mass, with the strongest storms posing some risk
of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon/evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of
Jackson KY to 15 miles east northeast of Elkins WV. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 234...WW 235...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
WW 235 SEVERE TSTM CT DE MD NJ NY PA CW 201805Z - 210100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
205 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Connecticut
Delaware
Eastern Maryland
New Jersey
Southeast New York
Eastern Pennsylvania
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM
until 900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop and track eastward
across the watch area through the afternoon and evening. Hot and
unstable conditions will lead to conditions supportive of damaging
wind gusts in the strongest storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of
Wilmington DE to 25 miles southeast of Groton CT. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 234...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
WW 234 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 201640Z - 210000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Maryland
Southern Pennsylvania
Northern Virginia
Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM
until 800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will form and spread eastward across the
watch area this afternoon in a hot and unstable air mass. The
strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 95 miles west southwest
of Martinsburg WV to 45 miles east of Harrisburg PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/20/26
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC043-243-371-377-443-202340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER JEFF DAVIS PECOS
PRESIDIO TERRELL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0236 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 236
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE LOZ TO
5 S JKL TO 50 ENE CRW TO 35 WSW MGW.
..SQUITIERI..05/20/26
ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 236
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC071-095-119-133-159-193-195-202340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FLOYD HARLAN KNOTT
LETCHER MARTIN PERRY
PIKE
VAC027-051-202340-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN DICKENSON
WVC005-007-015-019-039-041-045-047-059-067-075-081-083-097-101-
109-202340-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BRAXTON CLAY
WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 235
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW DOV
TO 5 NE ILG TO 20 W EWR TO 15 S BDL.
..SQUITIERI..05/20/26
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC007-009-011-202340-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON
DEC001-005-202340-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT SUSSEX
NJC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-029-033-039-
202340-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN
CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND ESSEX
GLOUCESTER HUDSON MERCER
WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E EKN TO
35 E EKN TO 45 SW MRB TO 25 SSW MRB TO 10 ESE HGR TO 20 S CXY TO
20 W AVP.
..CHALMERS..05/20/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-202140-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC003-005-013-015-021-025-027-031-033-510-202140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL
CECIL FREDERICK HARFORD
HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 20 22:44:06 UTC 2026.SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible
with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may
also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains largely on track. Only minor adjustment to the
wind probabilities were made based on current observations and
recent guidance.
..Wendt.. 05/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026/
...WV to Southern New England...
A broad upper ridge is present today over the southeastern U.S.,
with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending from the
OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Visible satellite imagery
shows a zone of relatively clear skies from KY/WV into southeast
PA/NJ and southern New England. Strong heating in this corridor
will lead to moderate CAPE by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected, with steep low-level lapse rates and
sufficient westerly flow above the boundary-layer supporting a risk
of damaging wind gusts and some hail in the strongest
cores/clusters.
...Southwest TX...
Water vapor imagery shows a southern stream shortwave trough moving
into northwest Mexico, with large scale ascent approaching west TX.
Considerable cloud cover will persist in this region today, limiting
heating/destabilization. Easterly low-level upslope flow will aid
in the development of afternoon thunderstorms over the Davis
mountains, with storms spreading slowly eastward through the
evening. A few severe storms are possible, capable of large hail
and gusty/damaging winds.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions
of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging
wind.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially over the northern and central High
Plains Friday morning is expected to become negatively tilted as it
translates into the upper MS Valley Friday night. A belt of enhanced
mid/upper-level flow will accompany that feature across the central
Plains. A separate, weaker disturbance is expected to be loosely
phased with the north-central U.S. system, tracking from the Ozark
Plateau and lower MS Valley into the OH and TN Valleys.
At the surface, A cold front associated with the former disturbance
mentioned above is forecast to move through the northern and central
Plains with the trailing extension of that boundary pushing into the
southern High Plains, where it will link with a surface low. Farther
east, a secondary surface low (tied to the lower-latitude impulse)
is expected to develop from the lower MS into OH Valley with an
associated warm front lifting north through the TN into OH Valley.
...Southern Plains...
Despite rising mid-level heights through the day, convergence along
the front and/or upslope flow in its immediate wake are expected to
support widely scattered thunderstorm development over parts of
northeast/east-central NM into the TX Panhandle by mid to late
afternoon. The combination of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s will support a
moderately unstable air mass amidst a kinematic environment
featuring a vertically veering wind profile with effective bulk
shear of 30-35 kt. That parameter space will support organized
multicell or supercell storm modes initially with the predominant
hazard being large hail. The 12z models suggest upscale growth of
the initial storms into an MCS with an isolated hail and wind threat
continuing east across parts of OK and northwest TX Friday evening
into Friday night.
...Central Plains...
An axis of 50s to low 60s dewpoints are expected to spread north
from KS into eastern NE ahead of the cold front. However, widespread
clouds and areas of precipitation are expected to limit
boundary-layer heating and air mass destabilization. So, despite
increased forcing for ascent and strengthening low-level and
deep-layer shear, the unfavorable thermodynamic environment is
expected to preclude severe-storm potential.
...TN and OH Valleys...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the forecast
period along and south of the warm front, aiding by forcing for
ascent associated with the short-wave trough moving through the
region. Generally weak lapse rates are expected to limit air mass
destabilization, despite the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in
the 60s to low 70s. However, a modest enhancement of mid-level winds
attending the short-wave trough, and more so, intensifying 850-mb
flow Friday afternoon into night, will result in strengthening
vertical shear, especially across the OH Valley Friday night. As
such, potential will exist for transient supercell structures to be
embedded in the broader-scale convective shield with a non-zero risk
for a brief tornado.
..Mead.. 05/20/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Afternoon Update...
As the mid-level shortwave trough traverses the northern Rockies, a
southward progressing cold front will push through the Great Basin
and upper Southwest on Day 2/Thursday. Ahead of the cold front,
localized terrain-enhanced southwesterly winds will increase to
10-20 mph as RH declines to 10-20% at peak heating. A narrow region
of stronger west-southwesterly winds (15-25 mph) will develop across
eastern UT and western CO, though displaced from the lowest RH,
prior to the cold front arrival. As the front passes in the evening,
briefly gusty northerly winds and increased surface moisture will
envelop the region. The more localized nature of elevated fire
weather conditions and sparsely continuous fuels precludes the
introduction of highlights.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026/
...Synopsis...
On Day 2/Thursday, a shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet
streak will transit through the Intermountain West. There is some
uncertainty given trends in the recent forecast guidance as to how
far south this feature will dig and the timing of when it will
progress over the central/southern Rockies. A cold front will
continue to progress south/eastward over the Eastern Seaboard.
...Southwest...
Conditions on Day 2/Thursday will be somewhat similar to Day
1/Wednesday with southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph and brief
afternoon RHs of 10-20%. Given the uncertainty associated with the
aforementioned shortwave trough, marginally elevated conditions
outside of a synoptically-supported fire weather environment, and
more sparsely continuous fuels, no highlighted areas were introduced
with this forecast issuance.
...Maine...
One location that will miss out on much of any accumulating
precipitation with the aforementioned cold front passage is the
northeastern corner of the CONUS. With this offshore flow (sustained
winds of 10-15 mph) in place at the surface, RHs will also dip down
near 25-35% behind the front on Day 2/Thursday. Additionally, heavy
dead fuels will remain near the 80-90th percentile. However, well
established green up at this point will preclude any highlighted
areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
A shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak will
gradually drift across the High Plains and Upper Midwest on Day
3/Friday before entering south-central Canada this weekend. On Day
4/Saturday, a weak shortwave trough over the Rockies will translate
eastward into the Great Lakes by Day 5/Sunday. Longwave ridging will
build across the West on Day 4/Saturday, sliding towards the Central
U.S. as extended guidance introduces the potential for a robust
upper trough to enter the Pacific Northwest early next week. An
Atlantic ridge over the Eastern Seaboard is likely to persist
through the forecast period, with multiple rounds of mid-level
perturbations promoting repeat opportunities for precipitation. The
upper pattern suggests dampened fire weather conditions on a broader
scale through the weekend, with the exception of localized breezy
conditions across parts of the West.
Guidance remains ambiguous in the timing and extent of the
approaching Pacific trough towards the latter half of the forecast
period. However, fire weather highlights may be warranted in future
outlooks as confidence increases in the overall pattern, and the
overlap of dry/breezy conditions atop receptive fuels is recognized.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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