Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the
U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be
located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass
will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over
the continental U.S. today and tonight.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night
across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana.

...Synopsis...

Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday.
An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough
will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on
Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified
Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a
southward sagging cold front. This will support minor
destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into
LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be
sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday
afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/20/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east
toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs,
upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become
flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build
over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the
Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in
the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but
the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be
located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch
eastward toward the Mid-South. 

Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from
central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated
convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front
late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK
within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is
expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further
south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be
limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude
destabilization.

..Leitman.. 01/20/2026