No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 24 17:56:02 UTC 2026.MD 0044 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...Portions of West Texas into central Oklahoma
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 241634Z - 242030Z
SUMMARY...An expanding area of mostly sleet will continue northeast
through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...An area of showery precipitation continues to expand
from West Texas into southwest Oklahoma this morning. The
precipitation coverage is already more expansive than shown by any
12Z guidance and it continues to expand. This area of showers is
mostly sleet thus far, but KTLX CC and the 12Z OUN RAOB would imply
it will become mostly snow as it approaches I-40 across central
Oklahoma.
Sleet accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour and snowfall
accumulation of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour are possible within the
heavier showers/bands from Northwest Texas into central Oklahoma
through mid-afternoon.
Expect this area of precipitation to weaken as it moves farther
northeast during the afternoon. This will likely result in more
scattered precipitation coverage across this region for a few hours
during the late afternoon before precipitation rapidly expands this
evening ahead of the approaching main trough.
..Bentley.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32490119 32610154 33220201 34030195 34640135 35719819
35709619 35059591 33939704 32969906 32480056 32490119
MD 0043 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...WESTERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA...western
MS
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 241453Z - 242000Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet are expected to
persist across the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss regions into early
afternoon. Liquid-equivalent precipitation rates of a tenth to
quarter-inch per hour should be common, locally up to a half-inch
per hour.
DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate to heavy mixed precipitation is
ongoing across east TX and the Ark-La-Tex. Surface observations
confirm hourly precipitation rates of .10-.25 in/hr are common, up
to around .50 in/hr. 12Z guidance is rather consistent in indicating
this swath of precip persisting through at least early afternoon,
gradually shifting east-northeast amid rather pronounced low-level
warm theta-e advection. A classic freezing rain to sleet sounding
was sampled at 12Z in SHV. This type of thermodynamic profile should
continue to steadily push southward in northern LA. Farther east,
the surface freezing line should only drift to nearly stall across
western MS into the early afternoon.
..Grams.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 31729303 31419426 31579489 31919514 32729473 33429402
33959252 34529126 34619041 33938962 33408970 33009011
32379116 31729303
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.
..Hart/Bentley.. 01/24/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.
...Synopsis...
A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday)
morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the
Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A
constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a
progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over
southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon
hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting
in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a
severe threat along the Gulf Coast.
...Southeast Gulf Coast States...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z
Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a
linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the
development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned
somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning,
delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to
upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints.
Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km),
resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt
west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level
jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will
support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level
curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will
precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon
across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the
severe threat is expected to be greatest.
While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH
ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells
cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg
over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and
400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts
and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be
with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level
hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell
manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the
storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface
low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector.
With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from
central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane
through the day.
..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026
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