Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary concerns.

...Central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough is expected to eject into the Dakotas and the
Upper Midwest. The timing and evolution of this feature varies in
model guidance. The ECMWF suggests a later and a more
eastward-moving wave ejection as compared to the earlier, meridional
trajectory of the NAM/GFS. These differences lead to drastic
differences in where convection will ultimately form. The farther
north solutions show little in the way of convection as compared to
the ECMWF. A very moist airmass will be in place along with steep
mid-level lapse rates overspreading the area. The amplified ridge in
the East will remain in place and will suppress thunderstorm
potential away from the trough/cold front. Models all suggest
extreme buoyancy (4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) will develop within the warm
sector. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for organized storms.
Given the potential for intense storms, a broad Slight will be
maintained with the caveat that convective development is somewhat
conditional/uncertain.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will
be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain
entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before
potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of
weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the
central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with
the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across
parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With
large-scale features generally being weak, convective development
will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave
troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low
severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low,
however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of
prior convection will increase with each successive day.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN
NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING...

...Synopsis...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected today across
eastern Utah, western Colorado, and the Four Corners region.***

A robust fire weather pattern will continue across portions of the
Great Basin and Southwest today as a seasonably strong mid-level
trough continues to dig into the western CONUS and an attendant
mid-level jet amplifies across portions of the Great Basin.
Continued exceptionally dry and windy conditions following
antecedent dry thunderstorm activity will result in significant fire
weather concerns for any new ignitions, lingering holdovers, and
ongoing large fires across the western CONUS.

...Eastern Utah, western Colorado, and the Four Corners region...
As the aforementioned mid-level jet amplifies across portions of the
Great Basin, a corridor of stronger sustained, southwesterly surface
winds will expand eastward from southeastern Nevada into the Upper
Colorado River Valley. These 25-35 mph (potentially up to 40 mph in
terrain favored locations) winds will overlap very low RH values of
5-15% and receptive fuels (ERCs noted in the 80-95+ percentiles)
that were exacerbated by dry/breezy conditions on Friday. Wind gusts
of 40-50+ mph will also be possible due to deep boundary layer
mixing coupled with the strengthening mid-level jet. This will
promote extremely critical fire weather conditions from the Four
Corners region northward into eastern Utah and western Colorado and
an extended period (10+ hours of for some locations) of critical
fire weather conditions across a broader portion of the Great Basin.
In addition, isolated dry thunderstorm activity on Friday presents
an additional concern for potential lightning holdovers to emerge,
with poor overnight humidity recoveries and lingering breezy
conditions also forecast before another day of critical fire weather
concerns on D2/Sunday. A broader area of elevated wind/RH conditions
is also expected today across much of the Great Basin and Southwest
where sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph overlap low RH of
10-20%. 

The primary change with this outlook was a northward expansion of
the Extremely Critical highlights owing to trends within the latest
model guidance. Brief periods of localized extremely critical
conditions are also possible farther west into southeastern Nevada
and portions of north-central Arizona (in the vicinity of recent
wildfire activity); however, confidence in an extended duration of
overlap between 30+ mph sustained winds and RH below 10% is lower
for these locations.

..Chalmers.. 06/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...