Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this
evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorm activity will continue across portions of the central
Gulf Coast this evening. While the more favorably unstable air mass
remains mostly offshore, occasional strong cells/clusters may track
inland with potential for damaging winds as large scale ascent
increasing through the evening/overnight period. Closer to the front
offshore, a few transient supercells and a tornado may be possible.
Overall, the threat inland remains isolated and a Marginal risk was
maintained this evening to account for this potential.

..Thornton.. 05/02/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of southeast Texas, and this evening
into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some trimming
was done to thunder/severe probabilities in western into southern
Texas, with 5 percent hail probabilities added in southern LA, to
account for the latest storm trends and near-term guidance
consensus.

..Squitieri.. 05/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/

...Synopsis...
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving east across Far West TX and Chihuahua.  This upper
feature will move quickly east and weaken while moving into
increasingly confluent flow through the base of a larger-scale
eastern U.S. trough.  As a weak cyclone develops east along a
west-east draped front from south TX northeastward to the mouth of
the MS River, strengthening low to mid-level flow associated with
warm advection will overspread the northern Gulf of America into the
FL Panhandle tonight.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters have episodically
developed and moved east across south-central TX this morning
immediately downstream of the upper disturbance.  Localized
hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms through the mid-late
afternoon.  A shallow post-frontal stable layer near the surface and
weak instability lended confidence in removing low tornado
probabilities over TX this outlook update.  See MCD #632 regarding
short-term details.

Farther east, little in the way of destabilization is currently
depicted by the latest model guidance to the north of the front,
specifically from near Lake Pontchartrain eastward over the near
shore waters to the south of Mobile Bay and the western FL
Panhandle.  North of the boundary, a low risk for large hail will be
maintained as a couple of stronger elevated storms intensify later
this evening into the overnight and traverse eastward in tandem with
increasing large-scale ascent/strengthening flow fields.  Near and
immediately south of the front, have focused the tornado and wind
probabilities this outlook update to the proximity of surface-based
inflow parcels potentially being realized by organized storm modes.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...Afternoon Update...
Recent guidance has trended towards a more accelerated cold frontal
progression across the northern Plains on Saturday afternoon,
resulting in minor adjustments to the Elevated risk area. While the
cold front will be dry, increasing cloud cover along and behind the
front will allow RH to remain somewhat marginal between 25-35
percent in southeastern MT and south-central ND. In far northeastern
WY and northwestern SD, a much drier airmass will exist for a few
hours ahead of the front, with RH between 10-20 percent before
rising as the front passes. However, the driest air and stronger
winds do not overlap, precluding the introduction of critical
highlights at this time. Very strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph
(gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours following the
frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions. 

In FL, Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly to account
for a broader region of sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph
and RH of less than 35 percent. An eastward progressing shortwave
will phase with an amplifying upper trough over the Eastern
Seaboard, cultivating an elongated surface low to develop east of
the Carolinas coastline. A strong 30-50 kt 700-850 mb jet is
expected to develop over central FL in the wake of the departing
low, yet expansive high cloud cover and increasing mid/low clouds
along the incoming front may prevent deeper mixing. However, in
sporadic areas that experience partly cloudy skies, wind gusts of up
to 30 mph across central FL could mix down to the surface,
exacerbating any new/existing fires. Wetting rainfall behind the
frontal passage should provide relief to the fire environment into
the overnight hours.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US
Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft also strengthens. This will
drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry
conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west of
the upper trough, northwesterly flow will persist over the Plains
ahead of a ridge over the Great Basin. A dry cold front will move
southward across the northern Plains supporting dry and breezy
conditions into parts of the Dakotas/MT.

...FL...
Another day of dry and breezy conditions is expected for portions of
central and southern FL. Surface winds should be somewhat stronger
than Friday as the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and flow
aloft increases. Surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible amid RH
below 35%. Area fuels remain quite dry with little recent rainfall
and ERC values above the 95th percentile. Fire-weather concerns
should end with the frontal passage and some light rainfall possible
into the evening and overnight.

...Northern Plains...
On the backside of the broader eastern US trough, a subtle shortwave
will support a weak surface cyclone along a cold front moving out
southern Canada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected
with the front. With little surface moisture in place, afternoon RH
values below 20% are likely. Combined with dry fuels, the dry/breezy
conditions will likely support a few hours of elevated fire weather
concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern
MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...