Mesoscale Discussion 2411
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Areas affected...east/southeast New Mexico and parts of Far West
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 260120Z - 260415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms should persist for several hours, with a
few producing hail over 1.00" diameter. A brief/weak tornado may
occur as well.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front from the
northern TX Panhandle into east-central NM. South of this boundary,
temperatures are in the low to mid 60s F, while dewpoints remain in
the 55-60 F range, resulting in a high RH/low LCL environment.

While the upper trough lifts out of the area tonight, low-level
southeasterlies will persist, with 30-35 kt out of the southeast
just above the surface. This may support 0-1 km SRH values over 100
m2/s2.

Effective shear remains at or above 35-40 kt this evening, while
MLCAPE is generally in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. The 00Z AMA
sounding shows a cool/moist profile, but still unstable, with
veering winds with height near the boundary. Farther south toward El
Paso TX, a warmer and drier profile exists, with weaker shear but
MLCAPE over 1200 J/kg.

Recent radar trends suggest additional cells may develop into Far
West TX over the next few hours, while ongoing cells over NM roam
the Eastern Plains. There may be a favorable zone south of the main
boundary where shear can support small supercells with a brief
tornado risk. However, cool boundary layer temperatures may mitigate
that threat somewhat. Otherwise, cells with hail appear most
probable over southeast NM into TX where instability is greater.

..Jewell.. 10/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31170548 31260584 31480622 31670632 32030625 32370616
            32750614 33730611 34180601 34450581 34550559 35230370
            35370322 35340303 35090286 34500280 34120342 33530371
            32090388 31600403 31170548 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible this
evening and into the night from New Mexico into Far West Texas and
the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts as well as a tornado or two are possible in these areas.

... 01Z Update ...

Isolated strong thunderstorms continue this evening across portions
of southeast New Mexico into portions of Texas Panhandle.
Rain-cooled air to the north has reinforced a modest baroclinic zone
along and south of Santa Rosa to Tucumcari, NM northeast toward
Guymon. Along and south of this boundary, MUCAPE values have risen
into in excess of 2000 J/kg, with 35-50 knots of bulk shear analyzed
within SPC's objective analysis routines. A quick examination of a
time-lagged HRRR/RRFS ensemble indicates this zone may yet serve as
a focus for renewed thunderstorm intensity, particularly across New
Mexico, over the next several hours. As such, an isolated tornado or
large hail threat will remain with any isolated/discrete
thunderstorm along and south of this boundary. Additionally, a few
strong wind gusts and perhaps isolated wind damage will be possible
with any intense thunderstorm that can develop farther south where
low-level lapse rates will remain somewhat steeper for a few more
hours as compared to areas farther north. 

Elsewhere, a couple of lightning strikes will remain possible along
the Pacific Northwest coast, along the east coast of Florida, and
the Florida Keys.

..Marsh.. 10/26/2026