Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula today. Organized severe
thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Southeast...
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front continuing to advance
southward this morning across southern LA/MS/AL into the FL
Panhandle and southern GA. This front will decelerate and stall
across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level shortwave
trough moves eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. While
diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will occur ahead of the
front, relatively modest lapse rates should hinder the development
of any more than weak instability. Furthermore, low-level
convergence along the front is expected to remain limited. Even so,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms should eventually develop this
afternoon, focused across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula
along and south of the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two
with gusty winds may occur, the weak instability, modest lapse rates
aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear all suggest that the risk for
organized severe thunderstorms should remain low today.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 02/27/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5...
At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on
Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern
U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central
states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and
Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible
each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In
areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may
develop.

...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and
central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects
northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a
cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist
airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern
Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms
appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south
across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is
evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat
during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail
and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a
severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist
concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves
across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be
adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward
into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into
the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in
place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable
airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface
temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible
in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is
uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some
solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the
south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level
trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature,
thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the
southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is
forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance 
exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is
substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe
threat.