Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and minimal changes were needed with
this update. For information regarding strong-storm potential in
northern CA and across parts of the Southwest, see the previous
discussion below.

..Weinman.. 11/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026/

...Southeast AZ...
A strong shortwave trough is rotating across northwest Mexico.  This
feature will affect southern AZ, providing increasing large scale
ascent and steep lapse rates through the afternoon and evening. 
Visible satellite imagery suggests rather widespread cloud cover
will affect much of southern AZ, and low-level moisture is limited. 
These factors should keep MLCAPE values below 500 J/kg.  Winds aloft
are also relatively weak.  While organized severe storms appear
unlikely today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will track
across the region, with some concern for a few strong wind gusts in
the more intense cells. 

...Northern CA...
A strong cold front has moved inland across northern CA, with
intense low and mid level wind fields accompanying the front.  No
lightning has been observed with the line thus far, and
thermodynamic profiles remain quite weak.  Nevertheless, strong wind
gusts may accompany the shallow convective line, and even an
orographically-induced brief tornado is possible - mainly through
mid afternoon.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. Saturday and
Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Mid-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the
western CONUS that is forecast to de-amplify as if shifts eastward
over the next 48 hours. As de-amplification occurs the primary
vorticity maximum and attendant jet streak will migrate across the
Southwest and into the southern Plains through Sunday morning. Cold
temperatures aloft attendant to the upper low, coupled with ascent
within the left-exit region of a weakening jet and eventually within
the warm advection branch of an intensifying low-level cyclone, will
support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the Four Corners
into western Texas/Oklahoma. The prevailing consensus among guidance
continues to depict modest and shallow buoyancy profiles
characterized by equilibrium temperatures near 500 mb and only
around 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE. Despite somewhat elongated hodographs,
effective shear through the CAPE-bearing layer is forecast to remain
limited. Given these concerns, the expectation is that convection
will largely remain sub-severe, though instances of small hail
appear possible - especially if deeper buoyancy profiles can be
achieved as suggested by recent RRFS solutions. 

Elsewhere, more sporadic lightning flashes are anticipated along the
northern CA and OR coasts as a secondary upper wave approaches the
region. Isolated thunderstorms, including a few strong storms, will
also be possible along and just off the southern TX Gulf coast
within a weak warm advection regime.

..Moore.. 11/13/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central
and the south Texas to the Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
The upper wave currently moving inland along the West Coast is
forecast to weaken as it migrates into the southern Plains this
weekend. Residual showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
by 12z Sunday across central TX to southwest OK owing to a
combination of broad-scale ascent attendant to the wave and strong
low-level warm advection. While some small hail appears possible
with this early activity, buoyancy profiles will likely remain too
shallow to support deep, robust convection. 

To the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms, southerly flow off
the TX Gulf Coast will advect low to mid 60s dewpoints inland across
the TX Coastal Plain. The combination of increased low-level
moistening and some degree of diurnal heating will bolster
warm-sector buoyancy through the day and support deeper, more
intense convection. Thunderstorm activity will likely become
increasingly focused southward into the warm sector along a
consolidated outflow/cold front and/or along a weak surface trough.
Latest medium/long-range guidance depicts parallel alignment of
westerly flow aloft with the southward-sagging outflow boundary/cold
front, which would favor a mixed/clustered storm mode. Given deeper
buoyancy profiles and 40-50 knot mid-level flow across the Coastal
Plain, effective bulk shear will likely be sufficient to support
organized linear segments and/or semi-discrete cells. Coverage and
duration of severe convection remains uncertain due to the potential
for destructive storm interactions within a predominantly clustered
storm mode.

..Moore.. 11/13/2026