Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC...AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible from this
afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of the central High Plains.

...Lower MO Valley through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Satellite and regional radar imagery shows several vorticity maxima
embedded within the moderate westerly flow aloft that extends from
the central Plains across the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.
The strongest vorticity maximum is currently moving through
north-central KS and south-central NE, while more subtle maxima
exist across western IL, southwestern Lower MI/far northern IN, and
western PA. Each of these features will likely contribute to showers
and thunderstorms later today. The most consequential of these
storms will likely occur in tandem with the western IL and
southwestern Lower MI waves as they interact with a moist and
diurnally destabilized airmass from the middle OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic. Airmass destabilization appears likely by the early
afternoon, with renewed thunderstorm development anticipated from
southeast Lower MI into southern IN. Moderate vertical shear will be
in place, supporting a predominantly multicellular mode. Mid-level
winds may increase slightly throughout the afternoon, and a
supercell or two is possible over southern OH. A trend towards
clustering and the development of linear segments is anticipated
over time, with damaging gusts as the primary risk throughout the
day.

These storms will continue eastward across WV into Mid-Atlantic
during the late afternoon/early evening. Moderate buoyancy will
support storm persistence and the potential for continued damaging
gusts. Additional thunderstorm development is possible ahead of
these clusters in areas of low-level convergence during the
afternoon. Moderate vertical shear could support a few more
organized storms, with water-loaded downbursts as the primary severe
risk. A tornado or two is also possible, particularly across
northern VA where southerly surface winds could result in adequate
low-level hodograph curvature. 

Farther west (across the Lower MO Valley), the well-defined
vorticity maximum currently over north-central KS/southern-central
NE is forecast to be east of the region by the late afternoon, but
airmass destabilization in its wake is uncertain. If the airmass can
recover, additional thunderstorms are likely along a cold front
moving into the region this evening. Strong buoyancy will support
robust updrafts, but modest vertical shear will keep storm
organization limited. If thunderstorms form, a few strong gusts are
possible across this region this evening.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development in anticipated this afternoon
across the northern and central High Plains. Thunderstorms over the
northern High Plains will be supported by low-level convergence
along the western edge of the moist airmass over the Plains.
Moderate vertical shear could support a few supercells capable of
hail and strong gusts, but modest buoyancy should keep the overall
severe threat isolated. 

Thunderstorm development farther south across the central High
Plains will result from a combination of moist low-level easterlies,
westerly flow aloft and orographic effects. Here, more cellular
development over the high terrain and immediate foothills could pose
a risk for large hail before transitioning towards more linear
structures with strong gusts as the primary severe risk.

..Mosier/Dean.. 08/16/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Wed-Thu -- Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic...

An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend,
with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and
an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs
across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across
the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu.
Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled
upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing
across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms
are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany
this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time
for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale. 

...Days 7-8/Sat-Sun -- Northern/Central Plains...

Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the
weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge.
Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as
southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface
high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It
is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but
if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft,
some severe risk could develop.