Mesoscale Discussion 0022
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Areas affected...Northern Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 142301Z - 150500Z

SUMMARY...A lake effect snow band will likely support heavy snowfall
rates in excess of 2 inches/hour across portions of northern Indiana
through the evening and into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...A lake effect snow band has been steadily organizing
over the past couple of hours across far southwest lower MI and
northern/northwest IN amid strengthening cold advection on the
backside of a passing upper disturbance. Surface observations under
the band report quarter-mile visibility with heavy snowfall, and
these observations are supported by live web cams in the South Bend,
IN area that show significant visibility reductions indicative of
heavy snowfall rates. 

Recent surface observations and 925 mb analyses show a subtle
confluence axis established across southeastern Lake Michigan that
is forecast to persist and shift to the southwest over the next
several hours. Latest forecast soundings depict 6.5 C/km lapse rates
and saturated profiles from the surface through roughly 3 km.
Additional deepening/saturation of this layer possible as ascent
within the left-exit region of an approaching upper jet (currently
noted upstream across portions of MN/WI in water-vapor imagery)
overspreads the region heading into the evening/overnight hours.

Maintenance of a favorable low to mid-level thermodynamic profile,
steady low-level confluence, and relatively warm water temperatures
(approximately 35-40 F per recent analyses) along the southeastern
shore of Lake MI should all contribute to robust lake effect snow
band capable of heavy snowfall rates potentially exceeding 2
inch/hour. Strong winds within the lowest few kilometers, gusting to
30-40 mph at times, may support periods of blizzard conditions under
the band.

..Moore.. 01/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

LAT...LON   41638720 41698702 41828675 42008656 42218640 42118627
            41518579 41338576 41208584 41038613 40978632 40908658
            40908680 40918701 40988722 41098723 41638720 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southwestern Florida
coast late tonight.

...01z Update...

Deep upper trough is settling across the eastern CONUS early this
evening. As heights fall across the northern Gulf basin, surface
front is forecast to surge across the central FL Peninsula by 12z.
Just ahead of this boundary, low-level moistening is expected into
the western portions of the southern Peninsula such that weak
buoyancy is expected to develop. Forecast soundings continue to
suggest isolated thunderstorms could develop late tonight, but most
of this activity should remain offshore.

..Darrow.. 01/15/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

The upper-level pattern over the next eight days will generally
feature a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. This pattern 
will favor repeated cold fronts pushing into areas east of the
Divide. Precipitation will largely miss much of the Great
Basin/Southwest/southern High Plains. The southern Plains will be
the primary focus for fire weather concerns given the dry fuels that
exist within the region. The level of risk will depend on the timing
of the frontal passages as well as the strength of the cold air mass
pushing southward. Predictability is low during this extended period
due to some of those uncertainties.

...Southern Plains...
After a recent cold air intrusion, temperatures should warm slightly
for Thursday in advance of another cold front. On Friday, a stronger
mid-level trough will dig into the southern Plains during the
afternoon. A cold front will move through Oklahoma/North Texas
during early Friday morning. In its wake, temperatures will be
cooler, but the coldest air should lag behind the front. That being
said, strong northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts)
and generally clear skies should promote boundary layer mixing with
15-25% possible. Fuel receptiveness is high across the region.
Elevated to perhaps localized critical conditions are possible.

..Wendt.. 01/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...