Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are possible late this
afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into southern Iowa
and north-central Illinois with any sustained supercells that
develop. Storms are otherwise expected to evolve into an extensive
line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas,
with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds.

...Northern Missouri/southern Iowa/north-central Illinois...
The shortwave trough emerging from the north-central High Plains
this morning will spread east-northeastward toward the Upper Midwest
through early Saturday. This will be accompanied by a strengthening
(70+ kt) belt of cyclonically curved mid/high-level westerlies. A
surface low across the south-central Plains will transition
northeastward toward the Iowa/Illinois border vicinity tonight,
while a warm front shifts northward from northern Missouri into Iowa
and across northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, where low/middle
60s F dewpoints will become common across the Midwest near and south
of the warm front.  

Within the warm sector, residually steep mid-level lapse rates and
modest insolation will contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg
(and MUCAPE values approach 3000 J/kg). Deep-layer shear will be
sufficient for supercells along and south of the warm front and east
of the Pacific cold front/dryline. While the likelihood/extent of
semi-discrete supercellular development remains a bit uncertain, the
main potential for such will increase during the afternoon near the
triple point around the Kansas/Missouri/Iowa border vicinity and
eastward, potentially as far east into western/north-central
Illinois in vicinity of the northward-shifting warm front.
Semi-discrete development would offer tornado/very large hail
potential, as well as a possible multi-round scenario of severe
storms in some of this corridor via a more prevalent line of storms
during the evening, with a damaging wind risk and some continued
tornado potential as the low-level restrengthens.

...Northern Indiana to western portions of Pennsylvania/New York...
Relatively strong westerlies atop the frontal zone, which will be
more southeast-progressive as a cold front with eastward extent,
will support at least isolated severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon into evening, including a few supercells regionally.

...Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri to Northwest Texas...
Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
advances southeastward into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the
same time, additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across
Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle
perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east. The combination of this wind field and the widespread
nature of the convection would lend itself to large hail and
damaging winds as the main severe hazards, although a tornado could
occur with any discrete storm or along the leading edge of any
organized linear segments.

...Southwest Texas...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon and early
evening in vicinity of the dry line and near some of the
mountains/higher terrain. Wind fields will support supercells
capable of producing large hail and localized severe-caliber winds.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/03/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds.  A few tornadoes are also
possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over
parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.

...MO/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northeast KS.  This low
will track northeastward across southern IA today, with the
associated warm front lifting northward into northern IL.  The air
mass in the warm sector of the low will be relatively moist and
unstable with dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values
of 2000 J/kg.  Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low in IA, and more widely scattered storms eastward along
the warm front.  A few supercells are possible across this region,
with a concern for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the
most intense cells.

...MO/KS/OK/TX...
An extensive line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the
cold front this afternoon from western MO into southeast KS and much
of OK.  Ample low-level moisture and CAPE will be present ahead of
the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
rotating/bowing storm structures.  Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concern, but a tornado or two are also
possible.

..Hart/Wendt.. 04/03/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031700Z - 041200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS...

The Critical areas remain on track from the previous forecast. The
Elevated area was slightly adjusted to include additional portions
of the central Plains where the latest forecast guidance indicates
criteria will be met this afternoon. In agreement with local Red
Flags, fuels guidance also shows that recent rainfall over northeast
Colorado and south-central Nebraska has had little impact on fine
dead moisture going into today. Additionally, areas near the
south-central New Mexico mountains, where fuels remain exceptionally
dry, cannot be ruled out of elevated conditions behind the frontal
passage this evening according to the latest forecast guidance.

..Stearns.. 04/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough currently analyzed across the northern
Rockies will eject northeastward across the central/northern Great
Plains today. At the surface, an associated surface cyclone will
shift from the central Great Plains into the Midwest with a trailing
cold front progressing southward across the central and southern
High Plains through the period.

...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with low
pressure across the central Plains and surface troughing in the lee
of the southern Rockies will favor strong westerly, downslope winds
of 20-25 mph (with the potential for occasional gusts of 30-40 mph)
along the I40 corridor in central/eastern New Mexico. With minimum
RH values forecast around 10-15% and receptive fuels across the
region, this will support critical fire weather conditions for at
least a few hours this afternoon. 

A southward progressing cold front will then bring a shift to
northerly winds later this evening and into tonight. Latest guidance
suggests that RH will be slow to recover behind this front, with
spotty 15-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly winds overlapping RH
below 20%. This may bring an extended and/or additional period of
elevated fire weather concerns to portions of eastern and southern
New Mexico and West Texas into tonight as the front progresses
southward. The greatest potential for these conditions is expected
in the lee of the Sacramento/Guadelupe Mountains in eastern New
Mexico/West Texas and within the Jornada del Muerto and Tularosa
Valley in southern New Mexico where terrain effects may yield local
wind enhancements.

...Portions of the Central High Plains...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, westerly downslope flow will
develop as the aforementioned mid-level trough begins to eject
northeastward across the central Great Plains. Sustained 20-25 mph
northwesterly winds (locally higher) are forecast to overlap very
low RH of 10-15% across portions of the central High Plains,
supporting critical fire weather concerns. The best overlap of these
conditions is forecast to the southeast of Royal Gorge in Colorado
(where high-res guidance depicts stronger winds owing to terrain
effects) and into western Kansas. While RH is forecast to remain
more marginal (15-20%) farther north in the lee of the Front Range,
sustained winds around 25 mph (with the potential for periodic gusts
to 35-45 mph) amid very dry fuels supported the inclusion of this
area in the Critical highlights. Elevated fire weather concerns are
forecast across adjacent areas of the central High Plains where
northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap low
RH of 10-20%.

...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A locally strong Santa Ana event will peak this afternoon, with
sustained north-northeasterly winds of 20-30 mph (gusts to 50 mph)
and very low RH values of 10-15% traversing southern Nevada, the
Low/High Desert of California, and the wind-prone areas surrounding
the Los Angeles metro. While elevated live fuel moisture is expected
to preclude widespread concerns, these conditions may support
locally elevated fire weather conditions for areas with drier fine
fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...