Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over
the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front
will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and
Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could
develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the
Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to
the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the
north of better instability. 

Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day
6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the
western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some
severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as
low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis
occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends
will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across
parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe
potential increase.