Mesoscale Discussion 0853
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of the northern Gulf Coast and Southeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251723Z - 251930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon may
pose a sporadic risk for strong wind gusts. Little in the way of
storm organization is expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 1715 UTC, visible and radar imagery showed a
broad area of thunderstorms ongoing over the central Gulf Coast
states associated with a remnant MCV. Widespread anvil debris
remains apparent and should limit destabilization over much of MS,
western AL and the western FL Panhandle. To the east of the MCV and
clouds, strong diurnal heating is rapidly destabilizing the air mass
across eastern AL, northern FL and much of GA and into SC. Despite
the poor mid-level lapse rates, 70s F surface dewpoints are
supporting ~2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Sufficient for periodic stronger
updrafts, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening as convective temperatures in the mid to upper
80s F are breached.

While some low and mid-level flow enhancement is occurring closer to
the MCV farther west, little in the way of vertical shear is present
over much of the Southeast (EBWD <25 kts). This suggests storm
organization will be quite limited, with a predominant pulse/multi
cell storm mode. High PWAT content (greater than 2 inches) may
support a few stronger downdrafts capable of sporadic damaging
gusts.

Storm coverage should increase this afternoon, along the eastern
edge of the remnant cloud shield and differential heating zone in
AL/GA, and in association with sea breeze convection in northern FL.
A few stronger clusters may evolve as outflows consolidate. However,
the lack of border upper air support  should limit a sustained
severe threat and a watch appears unlikely.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 05/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   30908240 30518317 30318431 30378535 30518567 30988607
            31988610 32878634 33548621 33788586 34108426 34598200
            34128111 33618105 32428130 31508182 30908240 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts
of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast, far west Texas and southern New
Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota
Arrowhead, and northern Rockies.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon from NE into
southwest MN/northwest IA along a weak surface trough. Large-scale
ascent will remain negligible due to the close proximity to a
mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However,
ample instability and adequate deep-layer shear may still yield a
localized risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger
multicells, before this activity weakens by late evening.

...Minnesota Arrowhead...
The glancing influence of an upper trough moving from Manitoba into
northern Ontario should encourage at least isolated thunderstorm
development this afternoon across the MN Arrowhead vicinity. Steep
mid-level lapse rates present on the 12Z INL observed sounding and
daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will support
moderate to locally strong instability. Sufficient deep-layer shear
for updraft organization will foster an isolated risk for large hail
and damaging winds with the stronger cores.

...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast...
A weak MCV and associated upper trough will move inland over the
central Gulf Coast states today. Modest flow enhancement and minor
low-level hodograph curvature may aid in occasional strong/gusty
winds and perhaps a brief tornado with convection spreading
northward this afternoon. But, poor lapse rates aloft noted on 12Z
LIX/JAN/BMX/FFC observed soundings will likely temper the
development of more robust instability, and should limit the overall
severe risk.

...Northern Rockies...
An upper trough/low will overspread the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies as it digs southeastward through tonight. While
low-level moisture will remain limited, daytime heating will foster
weak buoyancy and the development of high-based convection across
the northern Rockies this afternoon. Steepened low/mid-level lapse
rates may support occasionally strong to severe downdraft winds with
this activity.

...Southern New Mexico/Far West Texas...
An upper trough over AZ late this morning will move slowly
north-northeastward across the Southwest through the period.
Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across northern Mexico and
southwest NM will encounter a gradually destabilizing airmass
downstream into far west TX. Isolated strong to severe gusts may
occur as low-level lapse rates become steepened.

...Central Texas...
A weak MCV noted in visible satellite imagery late this morning is
slowly meandering across central TX. While additional convection
with locally gusty winds may develop this afternoon in its
proximity, weak shear should limit the threat for organized severe
thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/25/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across West/southwest Texas
into south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon and night, including
potential for large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes.

...Eastern New Mexico and West/south-central Texas...
Forcing for ascent will arrive into the region Tuesday afternoon via
a lead shortwave trough, with increasing thunderstorm development
expected from the Davis Mountains to the Edwards Plateau and to the
southern Permian Basin. Moderate instability and steep low to
mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the region, with
increasing deep layer shear to around 30-40 kt. Mode will likely
include initially discrete supercells and multicell clusters capable
of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts, along with a
tornado risk as low-level winds/SRH increase particularly late in
the day across parts of the Permian Basin. Storms should grow
upscale by evening as they progress east-southeastward Tuesday night
toward south-central Texas with at least some continued severe
potential.

...Montana/Northern Intermountain West...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon into evening,
aided by forcing for ascent related to the amplifying upper trough
and the upper-jet exit region. Modest instability and strengthening
deep layer shear amid deeply mixed profiles may allow for a few
stronger storms with potential for marginally severe hail and
locally severe wind gusts.

...Upper Midwest including parts of Wisconsin/Minnesota...
While influenced by upper ridging and weak overall forcing for
ascent, a moist/moderately unstable environment will exist
along/south of generally southward-shifting front. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development is plausible particularly
into peak heating. Diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates,
upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE within a weak vertical shear (20-30
kt effective) could yield some pulse-type/multicellular storms
capable of marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds.

...Northern Maine...
As a shortwave trough/mid-level jet streak approaches from Quebec, a
few strong or locally severe storms could develop into the region
Tuesday late afternoon or early evening. Some questions linger
regarding the degree of destabilization of timing of relevant
features, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for
a potential need for severe probabilities.

..Guyer.. 05/25/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...

...Great Basin...
Pronounced southwest flow ahead of a surface cold front and
impinging mid/upper trough into the Pacific Northwest is still
expected through today across the northwestern Great Basin region.
Southwest winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts along with RH as low
as 15% by peak afternoon heating will result in a broad fire weather
threat for this region today. A corridor of higher sustained winds
of 20-25 mph aligning with drier/cured lower elevation fuels will
support critical fire weather conditions across southeastern OR into
northwestern NV. No changes were necessary to the existing Critical
and surrounding adjacent Elevated Highlights.

...Southwest...
Light stratiform rainfall across far eastern AZ into western NM will
translate northward today as a mid/upper short wave ejects into Four
Corners. Farther south, ongoing thunderstorms with heavier rain
cores will similarly move northward through the day. Scaled back
southeastward extent of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm Highlights owing
to higher overnight rainfall accumulations and reduced ignition
potential. High-based convection is still expected across the
Mogollon Rim region into the AZ Strip this afternoon. Surface dew
points in the 30s and 40s F along with daytime boundary layer mixing
should yield a deeper dry, sub-cloud layer through the afternoon
resulting in overall lower rainfall amounts and potential ignitions
over dry fuels.

..Williams.. 05/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0223 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/

...Synopsis...
A robust upper-level trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest
today as a weaker mid/upper trough and an associated plume of
enhanced mid/upper level moisture shift into the Southwest. Another
upper trough will transition quickly east/northeastward across
northern New England while ridging remains in place over the
Southeast and much of the High Plains. Chances for wetting rainfall
will continue across much of the East Coast and the South
along/ahead of a surface quasi-stationary boundary/cold front. A
second cold front will also begin to advance across the Pacific
Northwest in tandem with the aforementioned upper trough.

...Great Basin...
A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of an approaching
surface cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface
winds of 20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH
values around 15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that
fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this
region. This combination of winds/RH and cured/drying lower
elevation fuels will result in a critical fire weather threat from
northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon this afternoon. Deep
boundary layer mixing and strengthening southwesterly flow aloft may
also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph. Elevated fire
weather conditions are also expected across adjacent portions of the
Great Basin where sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph
are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 15-25%.

...Southwest...
A mid/upper trough and associated plume of greater mid-level
moisture will shift into the Southwest through today. This will
contribute to weak buoyancy and support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms over receptive fuels (ERCs around the 90th
percentile). Thunderstorms will initially be high-based, with a dry
boundary layer supporting evaporation of rainfall. More robust
boundary layer moistening and the potential for a more prolonged
convective event in some locations will support a mix of wet/dry
thunderstorms, with rainfall accumulations of up to 0.5" possible,
primarily from west-central New Mexico into east-central Arizona.
Minor trimming to the drawn area was done to account for recent
rainfall accumulation trends in the latest high-res guidance.
High-based thunderstorms with lower rainfall totals should still be
more prevalent along and south of the Mogollon Rim and along the
fringes of the deeper subtropical moisture plume across lower
elevation areas, where isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights remain.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...