Mesoscale Discussion 0095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0416 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Areas affected...MN North Shore to far northern Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 181016Z - 181445Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow bands will increase in coverage
through late morning along portions of the Minnesota North Shore to
far northern Lower Michigan. Rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour should
be common, with localized blizzard conditions along east-facing lake
shores.

DISCUSSION...Leading swath of moderate to heavy snow has been most
persistent across the MN North Shore to the Keweenaw Peninsula of
western Upper MI. An upstream lobe of strongly forced ascent from
east-central MN to southeast WI will shift northeast through late
morning. While the activity attendant to this ascent is largely
rain, including a flurry of recent thunderstorms in southern WI, it
will transition to winter precipitation types as it spreads across
the Upper Great Lakes. Snowfall rates will likely be enhanced with
transient bursts of 2 to 3 in/hr possible along the interface of
sleet/freezing rain to all snow transition. Where this transition
point occurs is more uncertain with southeast extent in MI, where
subtle differences in the low-level thermal profile should have
profound impact on the degree of mixed-phase precip versus nearly
all snow. 

Localized blizzard conditions along east-facing lake shores should
persist into late morning, before eventually waning as the surface
pressure gradient relaxes towards midday.

..Grams.. 02/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...DLH...

LAT...LON   46929247 47719142 48179074 48248860 46528424 45688315
            45118344 44958470 45698575 46038682 46548878 46629214
            46929247 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
With an amplified large-scale pattern over the CONUS, an upper low
will continue to cross the Upper Midwest toward Lake Superior, with
preceding warm/moist advection and DPVA contributing to isolated
thunderstorms across parts of the Great Lakes region, mainly early
today.

In the West, a band of convection will continue to move inland early
this morning across coastal southern California in association with
a cold front. Diminishing convective potential is otherwise expected
today across most of California. However, isolated thunderstorm will
be possible later this afternoon and tonight across the coastal
Pacific Northwest and northern California as a secondary shortwave
trough digs southward along the coast. Isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible across the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies
mainly this afternoon. Here, sufficient diurnal mixing and a zone of
stronger mid-level southwesterly flow aloft could account for some
convectively enhanced wind gusts, but overall severe potential
should remain minimal.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/18/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification
of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of
shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may
continue to evolve through this coming weekend.  These may be
accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one
cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern
Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. 
However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of
boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms,
might remain offshore.

At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may
continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday,
with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi
Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard
Sunday through Monday.  This is likely to be accompanied by cold
surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the
Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will
suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.

While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of
strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone
across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast
early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across
inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to
minimize this potential.