Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TOWARD THE SABINE
RIVER...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi
Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few
thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts.

...Discussion...
On Tuesday, an amplified upper trough will move east out of the
Plains and toward the MS Valley, with an expansive region of
south/southwest winds aloft from the Sabine Valley to the Upper
Great Lakes. Southerly surface winds will further transport moisture
northward with 60s F dewpoints to the Mid MS Valley, and upper 60s F
into the Lower MS Valley. 

The elongated surface trough/wind shift will support rain and
thunderstorms through the period as the trough gradually shifts
east. Some diurnal increase in storm intensity is possible, and the
greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be over
southern parts of the MS Valley and to the Sabine River where
instability will be strongest. Wind profiles will be marginally
supportive of severe storms with 30-35 kt effective shear over
southern areas. Farther north into MO and IL, shear will be
stronger, but instability will be quite weak. Strong wind gusts
appear to be the main threat.

..Jewell.. 11/01/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the OH Valley
and Great Lakes on Wed/D4, with a secondary trough moving across the
Four Corners and into the Southern Plains. An occluded surface low
will also move across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front
moving across the OH/TN Valleys and toward the Appalachians. While
low-level moisture will support rain and thunderstorms along this
front, the lifting of the upper system and weak instability will
result in decreasing severe risk. This weakening trend should
continue into Thu/D5 as the front moves across the Mid Atlantic and
off the East Coast. Behind these systems, the pattern will favor
high pressure and minimal chances of thunderstorms.