Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY...AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated marginally severe hail is possible in portions of central
Texas. Isolated damaging winds remain possible from the central
Appalachians into the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity.

...20Z Update...
Based on observational trends 15% wind probabilities were removed
from the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. Wind gusts along with weak,
shallow convection (with little lightning) have generally been in
the 30 kt range with isolated cases of low 40 kt gusts. Isolated
wind damage remains possible, but a more organized threat is not
expected given weak buoyancy downstream. Elsewhere, marginally
severe hail remains possible with isolated, elevated convection in
central Texas.

..Wendt.. 04/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026/

...Upper OH Valley...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing eastward across
western OH, associated with a band of widespread clouds and light
precipitation.  Mostly clear skies are present ahead of the front,
where temperatures are warming through the 70s.  This will lead to a
corridor of marginal afternoon instability and the potential for
scattered thunderstorm intensification along the front.  Forecast
soundings show strong mid-level winds and steep low-level lapse
rates, supportive of strong downdrafts in any vigorous convection. 
However, CAM guidance is consistent in showing very few
organized/strong storms through the day.  Will maintain the SLGT
risk for the conditional risk of a few damaging wind events, but
with limited confidence.

...TX...
Isolated intense thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning in the
post-frontal regime across central TX.  These storms have produced
hail and gusty winds for several hours.  It appears likely that this
scenario will shift eastward and weaken early this afternoon as the
primary upper jet moves into AR and away from the region, but will
maintain the MRGL risk area for a few more hours and extend it into
parts of AR/LA.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
A midlevel trough will move from the Northeast off the New England
coast on Monday, while the tail end of a related cold front
continues southward into the Caribbean Sea. North of the front in
southern FL, diurnal heating amid a moist post-frontal air mass
should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, though
weak buoyancy and limited large-scale forcing for ascent should
limit the severe risk. 

Farther west, weak low-level warm advection and modest moisture
return ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel impulse moving into south
TX will support a couple rounds of isolated/elevated thunderstorms
across southwest TX. Isolated thunderstorm potential could spread
further north into central TX late in the period, though confidence
in this scenario is currently low. Additional diurnal thunderstorms
are possible across the Southwest as the midlevel moisture impinges
on the region, with most of this activity expected over the higher
terrain.

..Weinman.. 04/18/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Central and Southern Plains...
A subtle mid-level short wave embedded in broader, but modest
northwest flow aloft will move into the Central/Southern Rockies,
with a subsequent lee surface trough emerging across eastern CO on
Sunday. Resultant south/southwest winds of 15-25 mph will evolve
across the Southern Plains within a very dry air mass, promoting
elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Single digit RH values
are likely across eastern CO but stronger winds around 25 mph will
be displaced to the southeast across southwest KS and the TX/OK
Panhandles where RH could fall to as low as 10% during peak
afternoon heating after poor overnight recoveries. Critical fire
weather highlights were expanded into northeastern NM based on
latest forecast guidance suggesting a higher likelihood of sustained
south winds of around 20 mph. Elevated highlights were also
introduced in leeward locations of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
where enhanced downslope westerly winds approaching 20 mph, relative
humidity around 15% and dry fuels align.

...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Dry and breezy post-frontal flow is still expected to bring elevated
fire weather concerns for portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic
Sunday. Rainfall associated with a cold front will be limited across
the Piedmont region tonight into Sunday, allowing very receptive
fuels to persist. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph and RH of 20-30% are
expected during the day despite cloud cover, with RH in some
downslope favored areas adjacent to the Appalachians falling to
around 15% by Sunday afternoon. An elevated fire weather threat will
likely linger into the evening hours closer to the northern Gulf
Coast. Elevated highlights have been extended southward into the
Florida Panhandle where exceptional drought and very dry fuels
persist.

..Williams.. 04/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging across the West will slide eastward over the
Continental Divide as an amplified large-scale trough will traverse
the eastern U.S. on Sunday. Broad northwest flow will prevail over
the High Plains as surface high pressure shifts east and lee surface
troughing enhances fire weather concerns over the southern Plains.
Beneath the aforementioned trough, an associated cold front will
advance off the Eastern Seaboard as a dry and breezy post-frontal
airmass will pose an elevated fire weather threat across much of the
Piedmont and Southeast. 

...Central/southern Plains...
Dry return flow and lee surface troughing will result in continued
Elevated and Critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. A
combination of south-southwesterly sustained winds of up to 25 mph
(gusts up to 35 mph) and very low RH of 10-15 percent (single digits
locally) will pose a Critical fire weather threat over portions of
southwestern Kansas, southeastern Colorado, northeastern New Mexico,
and the OK/TX Panhandles. Poor overnight humidity recoveries and
mainly clear skies during the afternoon will further exacerbate the
fire environment amid 90th-97th percentile ERCs. High/mid-level
clouds will increase during the afternoon across West TX and eastern
NM, however, sustained surface winds from 10-20 mph with 10-15
percent RH atop dry fuels maintain an Elevated fire weather threat. 

...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...
In a post-frontal environment, dry and breezy northerly flow will
develop east of the Appalachians into the Southeast on Sunday. 
North-northwest sustained winds of 10-15 mph and widespread low RH
of 15-30 percent atop exceptionally dry fuels will promote Elevated
fire weather conditions from the Mid-Atlantic to the Florida
Panhandle. Elevated highlights may be adjusted in future outlooks
depending on the anticipated rainfall on Day 1/Saturday into Day
2/Sunday morning.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...