Mesoscale Discussion 0115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Areas affected...New York City into Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 230024Z - 230530Z

SUMMARY...A long-duration moderate/heavy snowfall event will
increasingly impact NYC into parts of southern New England this
evening into Monday morning. 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates will
be likely, particularly after midnight EST.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery from the northern
Mid-Atlantic/southern New England shows a band of moderate to heavy
snow moving slowly northward into Long Island. Already, recent
surface observations reported 1 inch in the last hour at Islip,
LaGuardia, and JFK. This band should continue to impact parts of
southern New England this evening. The highest snowfall rates will
at least initially remain near the coast. With time, the 994 mb low
analyzed off the Mid-Atlantic coast will deepen, particularly after
11 pm/midnight EST. This will eventually promote a broader zone of
stronger isentropic ascent that will promote more widespread
moderate/heavy snow farther north. Surface winds will also
concurrently increase with the deepening of the low. Blizzard
conditions will be possible late this evening into Monday morning.

..Wendt.. 02/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   40437381 40837418 41297422 41837324 42027152 41987060
            41757033 41347048 40437381 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Surface low is beginning to deepen off the middle Atlantic coast
early this evening. Low-level warm advection will continue to focus
across the northern middle Atlantic into southern New England where
weak midlevel instability may prove adequate for lightning flashes
in the strongest snow bands.

Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes have been mostly confined to
offshore regions of the Pacific Northwest where marine influences
are contributing to a bit more buoyancy. Scattered weak convection
will continue this evening across western WA and a flash of
lightning can not be ruled out with this activity.

..Darrow.. 02/23/2026