Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes remain possible across parts eastern North
Carolina and southeastern Virginia into early evening. Additional
storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the
Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities were trimmed behind the primary
north/south-oriented broken band of thunderstorms spreading eastward
across eastern NC and southeastern VA. While thunderstorms have been
weakening while approaching the coast, a moist air mass and
clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (around 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH per VWP data) will still conditionally support a couple of
tornadoes within Tornado Watch #681 into early evening.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes
were made.

..Weinman.. 10/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026/

...NC/VA vicinity...
Midday water-vapor imagery shows a dry slot/vorticity lobe wrapping
through the base of the larger-scale remnants/cyclone associated
with Isaias and progressing eastward across the southern
Appalachians/Carolinas.  Surface analysis places a triple point over
northwest NC with a maritime warm frontal zone draped east-northeast
into the DelMarVa.  Despite considerable cloud cover according to
visible-satellite imagery, surface temperatures are gradually
warming into the mid to upper 70s across eastern NC and far
southeast VA.  This modest heating has led to the development of
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NC and weaker buoyancy
farther north near Richmond, VA (a few hundred J/kg).  The forced
band of broken thunderstorm activity moving east across NC will
likely be the primary feature for severe weather across this general
region through the late afternoon.  A few supercells embedded within
the north-south oriented band will potentially pose a risk for a few
additional tornadoes and perhaps an isolated risk for strong to
locally severe gusts (see MCD 2361 for short-term details).  Have
added a level-1 intensity highlight for the area of greatest
tornadic supercell potential through mid afternoon.  By late this
afternoon, it is possible (albeit uncertain) that a narrow corridor
adequately destabilizes ahead of triple point as it develops
northeastward into central VA.  If sufficient destabilization occurs
and sustained/robust storms also develop, a localized tornado/wind
threat could ensue prior to sunset.

...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS.  These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT.  Persistent
large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned moisture will
support scattered thunderstorms.  Strong low to mid-level
southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense bowing
segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms appear possible over portions of the
central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. More
isolated severe weather may occur into the mid Mississippi Valley,
and in parts of the Lower Great Lakes.

...Central/Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...

Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will reside across the region
on Tuesday in advance of an eastward-propagating upper low over the
Great Basin to central Rockies vicinity. At the surface, weak lee
low development is forecast across southeast CO/southwest KS, with
surface troughing extending southward across the southern High
Plains. Meanwhile, a surface front will extend from the High Plains
low east/northeast across northern KS toward northern IL during the
evening. Southerly low-level flow and a strengthening low-level jet
will support mid 60s to near 70 F dewpoints across the warm sector
from portions of western TX into OK/KS and the Mid-MS Valley. While
midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly strong,
rich boundary layer moisture will foster 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. 

Where stronger heating occurs in closer proximity to the surface
trough and triple point from northwest TX into central KS,
supercells will be possible amid vertically veering wind profiles.
Damaging winds and a tornado or two appear possible within this zone
of better instability and shear. Convection is likely to increase
along the breadth of the surface front into the Lower MO/Mid-MS
Valley as warm advection increases during the evening and overnight
hours. This convection may tend to be elevated within isentropic
ascent atop the surface front, further supported by
boundary-parallel wind profiles. Midlevel temperatures are forecast
to be cooler, and MUCAPE could approach 1000-1500 J/kg. Marginal
hail and gusty winds may accompany this activity into the nighttime
hours.

...Lower Great Lakes...

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning
ahead of an approaching midlevel shortwave impulse over the Great
Lakes. Deep-layer westerlies will increase through the day as this
disturbance approaches, resulting in a moderately to strongly
sheared environment. If sufficient heating can occur, surface
dewpoints near 60 F will aid in modest destabilization, resulting in
a conditionally favorable environment for localized strong wind
gusts and perhaps a tornado.

..Leitman.. 10/11/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...High Plains of northeastern New Mexico and Colorado...
Robust 50-60 kt southwesterly flow at the nose of a mid-level jet
ahead of a prominent upper low over the West, will overspread the
central Rockies and adjacent High Plains Monday. A resultant lee
surface low across the central Plains will aid in enhanced
west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph across portions of the southern
and central High Plains. Downslope warming and drying will assist in
daytime RH of 20-25% with localized zones of reduction near 15%
across eastern CO into northwestern KS and southwestern NE. Marginal
fuels across this region precludes introduction of broader
highlights although localized elevated fire weather concerns will
exist.

..Williams.. 10/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026/

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will migrate slowly southward across the
western Great Basin on Day 2/Monday, with strong southwesterly flow
aloft extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies and
northern/central Great Plains. Combined with a remnant subtropical
moisture plume, this will continue to favor widespread chances for
rainfall and higher elevation snowfall across much of the western
U.S., which will largely suppress fire weather concerns across this
region on Monday. 

Farther east, high pressure will remain in place across the
Southeast, with a cold front and attendant surface low pressure
moving southward across the central Great Plains. While a tightened
surface pressure gradient, gusty winds, and relatively dry
conditions are expected across portions of the central Plains
between these surface features Monday afternoon, poor overlap
between elevated wind/RH conditions and areas of receptive fuels
precludes a broader fire weather threat at this time. Similarly,
above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue across
portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley and Midwest, but
limited sustained wind speeds (generally less than 10-15 mph) are
expected to largely temper fire weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...