Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity...

An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western
states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a
deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on
Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper
MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across
the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a
strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains. 

Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich
boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest
destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel
to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer
flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training
precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly
progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk.
Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across
parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast
Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At
this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to
include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be
monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to
mid-week.