Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today over a small
part of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas.

...Southeast NM/Far West TX...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates broad cyclonic flow
over the western half of the Lower 48 states, with
west-southwesterly flow across the southern Rockies and adjacent
High Plains.  A lee trough over the High Plains will yield favorable
low-level trajectories for maintaining moisture in Far West TX and
southeast NM.  The 12 UTC Midland, TX observed sounding showed
moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7 deg C/km) with shear
primarily relegated in the 500 to 200 mb layer.  As the boundary
layer heats and destabilizes through mid afternoon, moderate
buoyancy will likely develop and lead to isolated thunderstorms. 
Forecast soundings imply a couple of supercells potentially capable
of large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) will be possible.

..Smith/Halbert.. 10/27/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing will encompass the upper air pattern over
much of the CONUS on Wednesday, with a pronounced embedded impulse
poised to traverse the northern Plains and impinge on the Upper MS
Valley by late afternoon into early evening. The approach of this
mid-level impulse will support rapid surface troughing over the
Upper MS Valley, with some low-level moisture return expected. While
buoyancy will be relatively weak, strong tropospheric flow
accompanying the passing mid-level and surface troughs, along with
adequate deep-layer ascent, will promote thunderstorm development
over the Upper MS Valley by evening. There is some potential (albeit
conditional) that a couple of these thunderstorms may become severe.

...Upper MS Valley...
As the surface trough intensifies through the day, a narrow ribbon
of 60+ F surface dewpoints will advect northward ahead of the
trough, beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, contributing to
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, the strengthening of the surface
trough will also encourage the development of a 40+ kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet just before sunset, when buoyancy
should be relatively maximized. Considerable veering and
strengthening flow fields with height will support enlarged and
curved low-level hodographs, especially closer to a warm front along
the MN/WI border. 

The vertical shear profile and expected MLCAPE magnitudes would
certainly support supercells capable of producing all severe
hazards. However, potential cloud cover may inhibit robust
boundary-layer heating, and some MLCINH may linger just above the
boundary layer as well. Therefore, any surface-based severe
potential that can materialize will be highly dependent on stronger
surface heating and subsequent CIN erosion. Still, at least some
elevated buoyancy may be realized in the absence of stronger surface
heating, so thunderstorms forced along the lee trough/cold front may
still be accompanied by a hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 10/27/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes were made to the forecast as previously described. Recent
widespread rainfall and cooler-than-normal daytime temperatures have
limited the overall fire environment threat across the CONUS. In
addition to westerly flow (sustained 15-25 mph surface winds) over
WY and western SD, northeasterly flow (sustained 10-15 mph surface
winds) over much of the Florida Peninsula is worth mentioning.
However, forecast near-normal temperatures amid afternoon RHs
unlikely to fall below 50% will similarly preclude a significant
fire weather risk there.

..Stearns.. 10/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS today. A robust
60-70 kt mid-level jet on the southern periphery of an upper trough
will overspread WY into the northern Plains. Surface lee troughing
across the northern High Plains and the presence of a strong
mid-level jet will support downslope enhanced westerly winds of
20-30 mph and minimum RH of 20% across portions of central/eastern
WY into western SD. However, cooler daytime high temperatures in the
50s to low 60s amid a marginal fuel environment will limit a broader
fire weather threat.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...