Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the
U.S tonight.

...01Z Update...

...Southwest...
A short wave trough approaching a blocking mid-level ridge centered
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast continues to split, with one
emerging perturbation now digging toward southern California and
Baja, where weak larger-scale preceding troughing is already slowly
accelerating north/northeastward, inland across coastal areas.  As
this continues tonight, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture of
sub-tropical eastern Pacific origin is forecast to continue to
advect northward across portions of southern California through the
Mojave Desert and lower Colorado Valley.  Coincident with steepening
lapse rates aided by mid-level cooling, Rapid Refresh and NAM
forecast soundings continue to indicate layers of weak conditional
instability developing across the region overnight.  The evolution
of profiles conducive to convection capable of producing lightning
remains a bit unclear, but still seems generally low through at
least 12Z Friday..

..Kerr.. 02/06/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities will remain generally near or below 10
percent across the U.S. today through tonight.

...Discussion...
While a blocking high centered inland of the U.S. Pacific coast
becomes increasingly suppressed, it appears that large-scale ridging
will be maintained across the Pacific coast through the Canadian
Prairies and U.S. Great Plains.  Some expansion east of the Canadian
Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains is possible, but a vigorous
short wave trough of Arctic origins likely will reinforce amplified
larger-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Atlantic
Seaboard, as it digs south-southeast of the Great Lakes through Mid
Atlantic region today through tonight.  Beneath a confluent
mid-level regime in the wake of this feature, cold surface ridging
is forecast to build across the Mississippi Valley through
Appalachians vicinity, with the leading edge of the reinforcing cold
intrusion advancing as far south as the Florida peninsula and
northeastern Gulf Basin through central Texas by 12Z Saturday.

Near and inland of the southern California through Baja coast, broad
weak mid-level troughing is forecast to linger and become reinforced
by a digging short wave perturbation emerging from the upstream
southern mid-latitude Pacific.  Models indicate that this may
include the evolution of a notable mid-level low, which probably
will remain offshore of the southern California and northern Baja
coast through this period.

...Southwest...
Models suggest that modest moisture return off the subtropical
eastern Pacific, coincident with steepening lapse rates aided by
mid-level cooling, will contribute to weak destabilization across
parts of California into the Great Basin today through tonight. 
With the evolving low and associated coldest mid-level temperatures
forecast to remain offshore, forcing to support convective
development inland remains unclear.  Spread among the model output
adds to the uncertainty.  

Orographic forcing might contribute to potential for thunderstorm
development with sufficient boundary-layer destabilization, and
there appears a consensus among the various ensemble calibrated
thunderstorm guidance for minimum threshold thunderstorm
probabilities across at least western portions of the Transverse
Ranges of southern California.  Eastward into the San Gabriel
Mountains, and northward into portions of the southern Sierra
Nevada, thunderstorm probabilities appear a bit less at this time.

..Kerr.. 02/06/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will envelop much of the western two-thirds of the
CONUS on Saturday, though an embedded southern stream shortwave
trough will develop east across portions of northwest Mexico and the
Southwest. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will move offshore the Atlantic
coast through early Sunday. At the surface, Gulf moisture will
remain cut-off as high pressure persists over the eastern half of
the CONUS. After 00z, weak surface lee troughing across the High
Plains will allow for modest south/southeasterly return flow to
spread across the western Gulf and the southern Plains. Some minor
increase in boundary-layer moisture will occur over south TX,
however this moisture is expected to remain shallow and
thunderstorms are not expected given weak forcing and warm midlevel
temperatures.

..Leitman.. 02/06/2026