Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central/southern
Plains this afternoon and evening, and also possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts and large hail
are the primary hazards.

...Central/southern Plains...
The region will be influenced by a modest amplification of the
large-scale pattern with a resultant increase in northwesterly flow
aloft by late today into tonight, while a front progresses
southeastward across the central High Plains. The front, as it
intercepts a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer,
will influence increasing thunderstorm development by mid/late
afternoon, with an orographically influenced increase in
thunderstorms also occurring along the Raton Mesa/Front Range.

Influenced by the strengthening northwesterlies aloft, effective
shear across Nebraska and western Kansas will generally at least be
35-40 kt. On the eastern periphery of a stout elevated mixed layer,
this will support some initial supercells capable of large hail,
most probable across western/southern Nebraska into
northern/possibly western Kansas.

Influenced by the front and aggregating outflow, one or more
southeastward-moving clusters capable of wind damage will likely
evolve by evening across southern Nebraska and Kansas. While winds
aloft will not be as strong, a similar upscale-growing quasi-linear
trend will probably also occur with high-based storms from the Raton
Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and perhaps nearby
Oklahoma, with severe-caliber wind gust potential spreading
east-southeastward through the evening.

...Eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin/western upper Michigan...
A shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level speed max) will dig
southeastward over southern Manitoba toward northern Minnesota and
Lake Superior tonight. While residual early day convection and cloud
cover may curb destabilization for a time, and keep the warm sector
somewhat narrow, strong to severe thunderstorm development should
occur near the eastward-advancing front by around mid/late
afternoon. 60s F dewpoints will contribute to a zone of 2000+ J/kg
MLCAPE across the eastern half of Minnesota/far northwest Wisconsin
by peak heating. Some supercells will be possible aside from more
prevalent multicells/small clusters. Large hail and damaging winds
are expected to be the primary hazards, at least on a widely
scattered basis.

...Coastal Southeast/middle Gulf Coast...
A moist/unstable environment will be favorable for isolated
pulse-type severe thunderstorms capable of water-loaded downdrafts
and wind damage, particularly during mid/late afternoon through
around sunset. This currently appears most probable across coastal
South Carolina, southern Georgia and northern Florida, although some
strong thunderstorm wind potential might also exist across the
middle Gulf Coast such as southern Louisiana.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/25/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts
of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe
gusts are the main threat across these regions.

...Central High Plains...
Upslope flow across the central High Plains will lead to moderate to
strong instability across much of eastern Colorado by Wednesday
afternoon. Strong heating and orographic ascent will result in
scattered storm development by late afternoon. Moderate
northwesterly flow aloft should result in 30 to 35 knots of
effective shear, sufficient for some supercell development. Large
hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with this storm
activity. The Slight Risk area is focused where the best combination
of shear and instability is expected. Farther north across Wyoming
flow should be stronger, but most guidance shows weaker instability.
Moderate to strong instability should extend into eastern New
Mexico. However, mid-level flow will be weaker and therefore, storm
organization is less certain. 

...Great Lakes...
A surface low will traverse northern Ontario on Wednesday with a
cold front extending southward into the western Great Lakes. Mid-60s
dewpoints are forecast to advect northward ahead of this cold front
which will lead to moderate to potentially strong instability.
Moderate mid-level northwesterly flow normal to the front should
provide sufficient shear and storm motion for a supercellular storm
mode. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat,
however, some tornado threat may also exist. Low-level hodographs
are small, but do show modest directional shear. This low-level
shear combined with a supercell storm mode may result in a tornado
or two. 

...Lower MS Valley...
Several MCVs from Day 1/Tuesday convection may exist at 12Z
Wednesday across portions of the central Plains. As these features
move southeast toward the moist and unstable airmass across the
Ozarks and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, scattered thunderstorm
development is likely. Relatively weak deep-layer flow may keep
storm mode relatively unorganized. However, the moist airmass and
moderate to strong instability, combined with one or more MCVs as a
forcing mechanism should combine for some damaging wind threat from
water-loaded downdrafts Wednesday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 08/25/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic to the
Northeast.

...Northeast...
A broad mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward toward the
Northeast on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Quebec
with a cold front extending southward into the Northeast and eastern
Great Lakes. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front
with broad ascent supporting storm development both along and ahead
of the cold front. Multicell clusters capable of damaging winds, and
perhaps isolated large hail, are expected. A more focused region of
greater potential may exist from central Pennsylvania into eastern
New York. The potential for cloud cover across the region casts some
uncertainty and therefore, confidence was not high enough for a
Slight Risk at this time. 

...Central High Plains...
Isolated to scattered storms are expected within an upslope flow
regime from eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and southwest
South Dakota on Thursday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show
moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of northwesterly effective
shear. This could support some supercell potential including some 2+
inch hail and 75+ mph wind gusts. Isolated storm coverage remains
the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities
at this time.

...Lower MS Valley...
Moderate to strong instability is expected across the Lower MS
Valley on Thursday. Shear will be weak, but there is some potential
for a more focused cluster of storms to develop, perhaps associated
with a remnant MCV from Day2/Wed convection across Arkansas. If a
more organized cluster develops, the moist environment and moderate
to strong instability may support some damaging wind gusts. Given
uncertainties about the location and intensity of Day 1 and Day 2
convection, confidence is not high enough to add severe weather
probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 08/25/2026