WW 170 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 281545Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 170
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Arkansas
Northern Louisiana
Southeast Oklahoma
Northeast Texas
* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1045 AM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...The air mass across the region should quickly destabilize
as cloud-clearing occurs in the presence of a moist environment.
Large hail will be the most common concern initially, but damaging
wind and tornado potential are expected to steadily increase through
the afternoon regionally.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles north of Paris TX to 45
miles east of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168...WW 169...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 27025.
...Guyer
WW 169 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 281515Z - 282300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Arkansas
Southern Missouri
Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1015 AM until
600 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Initially elevated storms will continue to expand/increase
east-northeastward into this afternoon. Large hail will be the main
risk initially today, but surfaced-based storms, including damaging
wind potential, may increase later this afternoon, especially across
the Ozarks.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Muskogee OK to 25 miles east northeast of West Plains MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Guyer
WW 0170 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 170
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CHALMERS..04/28/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-029-033-039-041-043-045-047-
051-053-057-059-061-069-071-073-079-081-083-085-091-095-097-099-
103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-133-139-145-147-149-
281740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY
CRAWFORD DALLAS DESHA
DREW FAULKNER FRANKLIN
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN
LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE
MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER
UNION WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
WW 0169 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 169
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CHALMERS..04/28/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 169
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-023-049-063-065-067-075-087-089-101-121-129-
135-137-141-143-281740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLEBURNE FULTON
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
LAWRENCE MADISON MARION
NEWTON RANDOLPH SEARCY
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON
MOC009-043-057-059-065-067-077-091-097-105-109-119-145-149-153-
161-167-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-281740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS
GREENE HOWELL JASPER
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD
NEWTON OREGON OZARK
WW 0168 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW SPS TO
15 WNW LTS.
..MEAD..04/28/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-029-031-033-049-065-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-
141-281440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS
TILLMAN
TXC009-023-077-097-237-337-485-487-503-281440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
COOKE JACK MONTAGUE
WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
MD 0595 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTH OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Areas affected...North Texas and far south Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 281707Z - 281900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected to become increasingly
likely this afternoon with the potential for very large hail and a
few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is likely.
DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis places a surface low over northwest
TX with an attendant outflow boundary (remnant from early-day
storms) stretching east across north TX, to the north of the
Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. A dryline was becoming better defined
from the vicinity of the surface low south-southwest through the TX
Big Country into eastern Permian Basin into Concho Valley. Latest
trends in visible satellite imagery indicate a developing cumulus
field in the vicinity of the surface triple point where objective
analysis suggests that MLCAPE has increased to as high as 3500-4000
J/kg with decreasing cap strength.
Short-term model guidance is in reasonably good agreement in
depicting the development of one or multiple supercells from the
vicinity of the triple point east along the outflow boundary by as
early as 19z. Given the magnitude of buoyancy and the presence of a
strong mid/upper-level wind field across the southern Plains today,
the setup appears favorable for long-lived storms capable of very
large hail (upwards of 3-4" in diameter) as the primary hazard.
Modest low-level shear currently being sampled by the KFWS VWP and
evident in plan-view objective fields may tend to limit the overall
tornado potential. However, given that expected storm motions for a
right-moving supercell is generally along the orientation of the
outflow boundary, the potential for a few tornadoes appears to be
greatest with any storms that can favorably interact with that
boundary.
..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 33019942 33339956 33939917 34119860 34109699 33929609
33099603 32909617 32829677 32899854 33019942
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN
MD 0594 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0594
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Areas affected...central parts of Mississippi and Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 281550Z - 281745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds and large hail is
expected to increase across the area this afternoon. Convective
trends are being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have persisted through much of the
morning across the discussion area with that activity being driven
by modest low-level warm advection occurring along and to the north
of an outflow boundary extending from around Greenwood, MS to north
of Selma and Montgomery in Alabama. The 12z JAN sounding revealed
the eastern edge of the elevated-mixed layer has spread east into
the lower MS Valley, which when coupled with a moist boundary layer
is resulting in estimated MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg as of 15z.
The 12z CAMs offer various scenarios with respect specific details
on thunderstorm evolution today. Some solutions suggest in situ
storm intensification/coalescence into smaller, forward propagating
complexes, while others indicate the primary severe weather threat
being associated with a complex of storms arriving from the ArkLaTex
later today. Regardless, the general notion is for a gradual
increase in surface-based storm coverage and intensity in the
vicinity of the outflow boundary this afternoon. Relatively strong,
mid/upper-level flow evident in the 12z JAN/BMX soundings will
support the potential for supercells and bowing structures capable
of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat is
somewhat conditional and likely tied to any storms that can
favorably interact with the outflow boundary.
..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32979029 33789030 33978939 33648785 33218626 32428618
32398761 32748957 32979029
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.
...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Have upgraded portions of North Texas to a Moderate Risk for what is
anticipated to be a semi-focused sub-regional corridor of supercells
including very large hail potential along with some damaging
wind/tornado risk centered on mid-afternoon through
early/mid-evening.
First, a loosely organized complex of storms continues to progress
east-northeastward along the Red River of southeast
Oklahoma/northeast Texas and broader parts of eastern Oklahoma at
late morning. Additional increasingly surface-based development
seems probable on this near-frontal zone and associated moist axis
and thermal gradient that extends east-northeastward to the
Mid-South/ArkLaMiss. This may include supercells as well as the
possibility of an upscale-growing complex. Other initially elevated
severe storms are expected to continue and increase today from
northeast Oklahoma across the Ozarks toward parts of the
Mid-South/Mississippi Valley. Large hail is the initial risk, but a
surface-based storm risk could develop pending boundary layer
warming.
Broadly speaking outside on ongoing storms, a strongly unstable
airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and
near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. This is
beneath relatively strong winds aloft, particularly in
mid/high-levels based on morning upper-air data. Additional intense
surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple
point in north-central Texas towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon,
where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong
deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple
intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur
with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable
environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some
tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though
low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.
Additional severe storms are expected as far east as Mississippi and
Alabama today -- see Mesoscale Discussion 594 for short-term
details. An additional secondary round of upscale-growing storms
with increasing damaging wind potential could also move into this
same region late today, or more so tonight.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 04/28/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Southwest and Southern Plains...
Robust westerly flow aloft will persist today over the Southwest and
Southern Plains as a low amplitude upper trough ejects into the
Central Plains. Minimal changes to the Critical highlighted area in
portions of eastern NM and western TX were needed, where west winds
of 20-25 mph and single digit RH overlapping dry fuels will align
through the peak afternoon heating. Latest model guidance and
surface observation trends suggest limited movement of a nearly
stationary frontal boundary and associated modified air mass
stretched across southeastern CO into the TX panhandle as the
afternoon progresses. This should reduce the northeastward extent of
fire-effective weather conditions today, where Elevated Highlights
have been trimmed.
...Upstate New York and much of Vermont...
South winds continue to increase across the northeastern U.S. south
of deep surface low in eastern Ontario. RH trends are also lower,
currently in the 20-30% range, with further reductions close to 20%
expected by late afternoon, despite increasing cloud cover. Fuels
remain quite receptive with ERC values in the 90th to 97th
percentiles across portions of the Northeast. Extended Elevated
Highlights into central NY to include the Adirondacks and Green
Mountains in VT to account for the more expansive dry air mass in
place across the region.
..Williams.. 04/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
As a low pressure system off the West Coast slowly approaches Baja
CA, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will traverse
the High Plains encouraging strong westerly mid-level flow. Fire
weather conditions will continue for portions of western NM into the
southern Plains as a result of downslope warming and boundary layer
mixing. A deepening surface low will pass over the Great Lakes
region into southern Ontario, assisting in the breakdown of upper
ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. Increasing low-level southerly
flow ahead of an incoming trough and associated cold front will
allow for fire weather concerns to emerge in Upstate NY and western
VT amid a very dry airmass.
...Southern Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
afternoon where a dry airmass and strong winds overlap a region of
receptive fuels. Widespread west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph
coupled with RH falling to 10-20 percent atop a dry fuelscape will
increase fire spread potential for any new and/or ongoing wildfires.
More intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions
close to 10 percent yield Critical fire weather conditions across
east-central and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX.
...Upstate New York and Western Vermont...
As surface pressure gradients tighten surrounding a surface low
positioned over central/eastern Ontario, southerly winds are
expected to reach 10-15 mph with localized/terrain enhanced 20 mph
corridors likely. Mid-upper level cloud cover will increase this
morning through the afternoon hours, potentially limiting deeper
mixing. However, RH of 25-35 percent (locally near 20 percent) are
still expected by early afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions
will align amid dry fuels to promote an Elevated fire weather threat
across upstate NY and western VT.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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