No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 24 03:25:02 UTC 2026.MD 0037 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0922 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Areas affected...central and eastern Oklahoma into far west-central
Arkansas
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 240322Z - 240715Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall to increase in coverage through
the evening. Rates 1"/hr will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Snowfall has increased in coverage across portions of
central Oklahoma over the last hour, with some reports of moderate
snow south of the Oklahoma City metro. Correlation coefficient in
recent radar imagery shows a transition zone of primarily snow and
sleet south of I-40 from roughly northern Pontotoc County north and
east to northern Le Flore County near the Arkansas state line.
Initially, drier air was in place with larger dew point spreads but
moistening has been observed with rising dew points and implied
saturating profile which will has lead to an increase in snowfall
rates over the last hour. Moderate to locally heavy snowfall can be
expected to expand in coverage over the next few hours across
central/northeastern Oklahoma with occasional rates around 1"/hr.
Through the evening into early Saturday morning, increasing 850-700
mb frontogenesis will increase across a zone from south-central
Oklahoma into eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas across a strong warm
advection zone. As moistening continues to occur further east amid
this favorable ascent zone, snowfall rates should increase, with
likely rates around 1"/hr along the I-40 corridor around 06-09z.
..Thornton.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35239441 35059512 35019659 34949750 34989767 35049790
35309801 35759737 35979712 36179665 36209590 36239511
36199467 36119440 35549421 35239441
MD 0036 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Areas affected...portions of Southwest Texas
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 240030Z - 240430Z
SUMMARY...A mix of wintry precipitation will continue across
portions of southwestern and west-central Texas through the next
several hours.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations across southwestern Texas into
west-central Texas are showing a variety of wintry precipitation
types from light snow into the Panhandle to a mix of sleet/freezing
rain closer to the I-20 corridor. 00z sounding data from Amarillo
shows a weakening warm nose above 850mb, which supports the
transition to mostly snow across the Panhandle.
RAP forecast soundings along and south of the Red River and along
and north of I-20 continue to show a pronounced warm nose around
850-700 mb through much of the evening into tomorrow morning. This
warmer air atop sub-freezing surface temperatures will support a
predominate precipitation type of mostly light to moderate sleet and
occasional light snow north of I-20, with a transition to light
freezing rain along and south of I-20 where a deeper layer of warm
air aloft resides.
..Thornton.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32430265 33110200 34130103 34630035 34939957 34939903
34159817 33829790 33499772 32869778 32509840 32199934
31920027 31660094 31550168 31730243 32430265
MD 0035 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma into far northern Texas and
southern Arkansas
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 232350Z - 240445Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet accumulations are beginning across
portions of southern Oklahoma, and are expected to spread east over
the next several hours into northern/northeast Texas and southern
Arkansas as precipitation increases across the region. Freezing rain
rates up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River into
southern Arkansas.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics depict two plumes of moderate
precipitation with notable bright banding across western TX into
southern OK and from central TX into the Texarkana region. These
plumes are largely being driven by a combination of deep isentropic
upglide over a southward surging frontal zone and a frontogenetic
response between 925-850 mb. The forcing mechanisms are expected to
gradually shift east through late evening, which will likely result
in a prolonged period of precipitation along the Red River into
southern AR.
At the surface, mPING reports of sleet in Lawton, OK hint that
temperatures aloft (especially at around 700 mb) are likely warmer
than depicted by recent mesoanalyses and RAP forecast soundings
(implying a cold bias aloft). Recent HRRR solutions appear to be
better resolving the placement and magnitude of the warm nose aloft
(especially when compared with the recent 00z OUN sounding), and
suggest that freezing rain should be the predominant precipitation
type along/south of the Red River with increasing sleet amounts
further north into OK. Although temperatures across southeast OK and
southern AR remain above freezing as of 23:45 UTC, temperature falls
on the order of 2-3 F/hour are noted in ASOS/OK Mesonet
observations, so sub-freezing temperatures are expected within the
next 1-3 hours as precipitation overspreads the region.
Given these trends and recent model consensus, freezing rain rates
up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River and into
southern AR through 06 UTC. Sleet should be the primary
precipitation type with northward extent into OK with moderate to
heavy sleet accumulations probable. Given the weak (0.6 C) warm nose
at 739 mb in the recent OUN sounding, a transition zone from sleet
to moderate/heavy snow will likely manifest in the coming hours
roughly along the I-40 corridor as precipitation spreads northeast.
..Moore.. 01/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33339522 33569687 33699763 33839838 34129876 34569891
34949874 35149821 35259743 35199689 35099625 34949540
34699379 34539253 34539201 34409166 34159140 33859121
33369118 33159133 33059183 33069250 33339522
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible tonight primarily
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.
...01z Update...
Broad warm advection regime has established itself across the
southern Plains into far west TX. Latest surface data suggests the
polar front has surged to a position from northwest of CLL-ATT-OZA.
This boundary will advance into the lower Rio Grande Valley region
later tonight. Earlier thoughts continue regarding the potential for
elevated convection atop the cooler air mass. Model guidance
continues to suggest some risk for surface-based convection near the
front later tonight. However, low-level convergence is not
particularly noteworthy and updraft strength with this activity is
expected to remain weak.
..Darrow.. 01/24/2026
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