Mesoscale Discussion 1573
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of the middle Tennessee River Valley into
northwestern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101710Z - 101915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts may accompany a developing
band of thunderstorms over the next 1-2 hours. Watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a developing band of
thunderstorms across the middle Tennessee River Valley as of 1710
UTC, with recent radar imagery from KHTX sampling velocities
approaching 50 kts at 500 ft AGL within a portion of this band.
Aided by forcing for ascent and modestly enhanced mid-level flow
along the southern/southeastern periphery of a remnant mid-level
MCV, expectation is for this activity to progress east-southeastward
amid a hot, humid, and destabilizing air mass. While weak effective
shear (generally 25 kts or less per latest mesoanalysis) is likely
to limit overall organization and should temper the severity of this
convection, steepening low-level lapse rates will likely foster some
increase in the risk for at least isolated damaging wind gusts over
the next 1-2 hours. Trends will continue to be monitored, but watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   33818469 33868509 34098575 34388638 34578667 34748673
            34878654 35098600 35188573 35318549 35478530 35568519
            35628510 35638480 35438431 35218402 34948381 34628377
            34228396 33878438 33818469 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered
severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains
to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon
in a weak low-level upslope regime.  Ample heating due to the void
of cloud cover and a high sun angle will facilitate the development
of very steep lower tropospheric lapse rates.  A cluster or two is
forecast to eventually evolve this evening over southeast CO and
from the OK-TX Panhandles into far eastern NM.  Severe gusts (60-70
mph) will be the primary hazard.  Isolated hail may also occur with
the stronger cores given moderate deep-layer shear.

...Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
An MCV near the northeast KS/southeast NE border will migrate
eastward today and serve as a forcing impetus for thunderstorms this
afternoon.  Heating in wake of earlier showers/storms will act to
destabilize the boundary layer ahead of storms forming in proximity
to the MCV.  Some modest enhancement of mid-level westerly flow may
promote organized storms, including possibly supercells, in addition
to organized clusters.  Hail and severe gusts will be the primary
hazards with this activity.

...Tennessee Valley/Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...
An MCV moving into the southern Appalachians will likely aid
additional convective development this afternoon over the southern
Appalachians and into the Piedmont by late afternoon.  Multicells
capable of localized damaging gusts (50-60 mph) will be the primary
threat with the stronger water-loaded downdrafts.  A somewhat
separate area of thunderstorm development is also forecast farther
north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley where multiple weak
mid-level perturbations should develop eastward in generally zonal
flow aloft.  While mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear will
be slightly stronger across this region compared to areas farther
south, instability should be weaker.  Regardless, occasional
strong/damaging winds may occur with any thunderstorm clusters that
can develop along/south of a front this afternoon across the
Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley.

...Western Florida Peninsula...
A couple of stronger storms may develop along the sea breeze this
afternoon.  PW near 2 inches will support water-loaded downdrafts
capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps wind damage.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
along/near a weak front from parts of eastern SD and vicinity into
western MN.  Deep-layer shear will be weak and limit storm
organization but steepened lapse rates may support an isolated risk
for localized severe gusts or marginally severe hail with the
stronger cores.

...Southeast AZ...
Forecast soundings later today show 20-kt northeasterly 500-mb flow
atop weak low-level westerly flow.  This slight enhancement to flow
may aid in storm movement and some cold pool organization with the
scattered convection that develops.  Steep surface to 400-mb lapse
rates may enable a few severe gusts with the stronger cores.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/10/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the
Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area,
strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging
wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening.
Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough is forecast over the Mid-MS Valley
Saturday morning. This feature is likely to be convectively enhanced
by prior day convection, with a surface low/MCV also noted over the
region in the vicinity of Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. This will result
in a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow from the Mid-MS Valley
toward the Mid-South. A weak surface front is also forecast to sag
southward across the Midwest, while outflow arcs across the Mid-MS
Valley/Ozarks toward the OK/KS border. Further east, another upper
shortwave trough is forecast to move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast
by evening. Meanwhile, an upper high/ridge will build over the
western U.S.

...Ozarks to the TN Valley...

12z forecast guidance has trended a bit slower with the progression
of the upper shortwave trough and southward sagging cold front. As a
result, severe probabilities have been expanded northward. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a surface
low and trailing outflow, as well as ahead of the southward-sagging
surface front. Increasing midlevel westerlies will support around 25
kt effective shear magnitudes amid a very moist and unstable
(1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) airmass. This should foster one or more
organized clusters propagating east/southeast through early evening.
Damaging gusts will be the main hazards with this activity.

...Southern AZ/Southwest NM...

Stronger midlevel easterly flow is forecast to the south of an upper
high over the Four Corners/Great Basin. Steep low-to-midlevel lapse
rates will support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. PW values near 1 inch are
present in forecast soundings, and a deeply mixed boundary layer
will support strong downburst winds. Some potential for a forward
propagating cluster moving southwest across southern AZ is possible
and higher wind probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks
if confidence increases. 

...Eastern NM into OK...

Modest boundary layer moisture and weak upslope flow will support
widely scattered thunderstorm develop along the higher terrain in
NM. Strong outflow winds may accompany this activity as it spreads
eastward into the High Plains through early evening. Additional
isolated storm development is expected further east across
northern/central OK near a west-to-east oriented surface boundary.
Vertical shear will remain weak, but a very moist airmass (near-70 F
dewpoint) will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Water-laden downdrafts
could help produce strong to isolated severe wind gusts.

...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast...

Thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop within modest westerly
flow aloft as a shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S.
Vertical shear will remain weak, but sufficient clustering and
consolidating outflows/storm interactions could support sporadic
strong to severe gusts during the afternoon and early evening.

..Leitman.. 07/10/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

The forecast remains on track for widespread elevated fire weather
conditions across the Intermountain West this afternoon. Poor
overnight humidity recoveries in the Great Basin and Four Corners
have contributed to localized areas of critically low RH values this
morning (5-15%) as depicted by surface observations. Mostly clear
skies are expected across much of the West this afternoon, allowing
for deeper mixing into a very dry airmass aloft (portrayed by 00z
soundings at GJT, FGZ, SLC, LKN, and REV). Widespread RH values will
decrease to less than 10% this afternoon, with 15-20 mph westerly
winds in the western Great Basin (10-15 mph southwesterly winds near
the Four Corners) amid a dry fuelscape. See the previous discussion
for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026/

...Synopsis...
Predominantly westerly mid-level flow is forecast across the
Cascades and Sierra Nevadas today as a trough approaches the coastal
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, intensifying the height gradient
and associated wind speeds between the trough and the upper level
anticyclone centered over south-central California. This cross-range
flow combined with deep boundary layer mixing will support dry and
breezy conditions across large swaths of the Intermountain West,
from the Four Corners all the way through the Great Basin and into
the Cascades. 

Widespread relative humidity at or below 10% coupled with 15-20 MPH
winds will support Elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are
largely in the 80th-98th annual percentiles for ERCs. The Four
Corners region has the most receptive fuels (peak of 98th annual ERC
percentiles), but generally is forecast to have weaker winds of
10-15 MPH. The fuel receptiveness is generally lower from the Sierra
Nevadas into the Cascades (80th-90th annual ERC percentiles), but
will have the generally gustier winds -- especially with the
cross-range upper-flow. Locally Critical conditions are possible
across portions of far northeastern California into northern Nevada,
as well as portions of the Cascades, where local enhancement of the
winds due to topography will support gusts around 20-25 MPH.
However, the timing, duration, and locality of these stronger winds
precludes introducing Critical highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...