No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 7 15:54:02 UTC 2026.MD 1531 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...far southeast North
Dakota...west-central Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 071429Z - 071630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible as convection moves
eastward over the next 1-3 hours. A watch is not currently expected,
but trends will be monitored into the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms is moving eastward on the
cool side of a stationary boundary. Weak warm advection is likely
supporting this activity. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and
modest elevated buoyancy, isolated large hail is possible with the
strongest storm cores. 850 mb winds are expected to weaken slightly
over the next couple of hours. At least in the short term, it is not
likely for enough of a cold pool to develop to maintain organization
or for the boundary to lift northward and storms to become surface
based. Destabilization is occurring farther east and the boundary
orientation could allow this cluster to interact with it by mid
afternoon. Observational trends will continue to be monitored.
..Wendt/Hart.. 07/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 44939919 45130001 45760049 46210002 46379906 46269728
46109606 45739598 45239613 44959659 44879712 44779809
44939919
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe
storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and
southeast Arizona.
...Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest..
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving
northeastward across eastern MT and western ND. This activity, which
appears to be associated with a weak lead shortwave trough, is
forecast to continue northeastward/eastward throughout the day.
Storm severity will be limited by a lack of buoyancy and stronger
ascent. However, cloud cover associated with this activity will aid
in sharpening a warm front that is expected to develop as the cold
front, which moved across SD last night, returns northward amid
low-level moisture advection ahead of a stronger shortwave trough.
Thunderstorms are first expected to develop back farther west across
the northern High Plains, where moist easterly upslope flow combined
with steep mid-level lapse will foster airmass destabilization.
Moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1000 to 2000 J/kg) and
moderate deep-layer shear (i.e. effective bulk shear of 40 to 50 kt)
will support the potential for a few supercells capable of large
hail and damaging gusts. One or more bowing segments could evolve
from these supercells, with at least some potential for stronger,
more organized line capable of gust over 70 mph to move across SD.
However, confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential is
currently limited, owing to the likelihood of complex interactions
between outflows and new storm development over the MT/WY/SD border
intersection vicinity.
Thunderstorm development also appears probable farther east along
the warm front during the evening as the low-level jet increases.
Large to very large hail is possible with this activity initially,
before upscale growth results in bowing clusters.
Additional storms are possible near the lee trough from southeast WY
into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle during the afternoon into
evening. The local environment will feature a deep and well-mixed
boundary layer, which will support the potential for a few severe
wind gusts and perhaps some hail.
...Great Basin...
A modest shortwave trough is forecast to move through northeast NV
and northern UT this afternoon and evening. Modest mid-level
moisture and lift associated with this wave will support isolated to
widely scatted thunderstorms atop a deep and well-mixed boundary
layer. Modest updrafts and high cloud bases atop very steep
low-level lapse rates will support locally severe wind gusts with
the strongest storms.
...Southern AZ...
Increased mid-level moisture will support thunderstorm development
across the higher terrain of eastern AZ during the afternoon. Modest
easterly mid-level flow is expected over the region, with some
potential for the thunderstorms to progress westward into the lower
elevations during the late afternoon. A few strong gusts are
possible.
...East Texas into the Sabine River Valley...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a broad upper low centered
over the Mid-South, with a weak vorticity maximum pivoting through
its southwest periphery over southern AR/northern LA. A few
thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this vorticity maximum,
with a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage later this morning
through the afternoon as ascent from this vorticity maximum
interacts with the moist and unstable airmass in place. Vertical
shear is weak but some loosely organized cold pools may evolve,
supporting the potential for sporadic damaging wind gusts.
...Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to support
scattered thunderstorm development across the region, beginning over
the Blue Ridge Mountains during the early afternoon and expanding
southward along the weak lee troughing into the central Carolinas.
Some sea breeze development is possible from the VA Tidewater along
the coastal Carolinas as well. Vertical shear will remain weak,
limiting the potential for storm organization. Even so, the presence
of steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential,
leading to the risk for sporadic damaging wind occurrences,
especially with any storm clusters.
..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/07/2026
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA....
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe
storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and
southeast Arizona.
...Dakotas/MN...
A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and
Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge
over the Dakotas. A surface boundary will lift slightly northward
and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening,
with a very unstable air mass expected to the south. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late
afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. These storms
will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability
in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near
the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. If sufficient organization can occur with
these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward
through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN
with a risk of damaging winds.
Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new
development this afternoon along the boundary. These storms could
also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail.
...VA/NC...
Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over
northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into
NC. Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms
producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon.
...TX/LA...
Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in
vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region. Locally
damaging wind gusts are the main risk.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/07/2026
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