Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX....

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas today.

...NM/Four Corners/Far West TX...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a cyclone centered over
the Lower CO River Valley with expansive ridging downstream from the
western Gulf through the Upper Great Lakes. A shortwave trough is
currently progressing through the southeastern periphery of the
Lower CO Valley cyclone over northwestern Mexico. General
expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward
today with some loss of amplitude as it moves within the confluent
flow between the western CONUS upper low and central/eastern CONUS
ridging. 

Persistence of mostly southwesterly flow aloft will continue to
promote showers and thunderstorms from the Four Corners vicinity
across NM and into far west TX. The airmass becomes more stable with
northern extent but should remain buoyant enough to support
continued thunderstorms. More widespread cloud cover is anticipated
across northern portions of the region, but filtered daytime heating
may result in greater destabilization and attendant risk of a few
strong/severe storms capable of hail.

Greater buoyancy is expected farther south, where dewpoints will
likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s amid afternoon highs in the
mid/upper 70s. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear will
persist across area as well, supporting the potential for
supercells. Additionally, a more southeasterly component to the
low-level flow is possible from south-central/southeast NM into far
west TX, which could support slower storm motions and a relatively
greater potential for hail and tornadoes. Some very large hail
greater than 2" in diameter is also more possible here. This region
should also experience greater large-scale ascent as the shortwave
trough moves through during the late afternoon/early evening. This
greater ascent could result in a more linear mode and the potential
for a few bowing segments. Overall, there appears to be a relatively
greater severe potential from south-central NM into southeast NM and
far west TX compared to areas farther north and west.

..Mosier/Halbert.. 10/24/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and an isolated tornado will be possible Sunday
afternoon/evening across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west
Texas.

...Eastern NM to far west TX...
In advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest, a midlevel
shortwave trough will eject northeastward over the Four Corners and
begin to weaken slowly.  Height falls with the ejecting trough will
brush the northwest side of a persistent plume of low-midlevel
moisture over NM, along a slow-moving, northeast-southwest oriented
baroclinic zone.  Ascent along the baroclinic zone, in conjunction
with surface heating in occasional cloud breaks and local terrain
circulations, will support scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon from far west TX into eastern NM.

Midlevel lapse rates will be steeper closer to the ejecting midlevel
wave (northwest of the surface warm sector), and more limited within
the warm sector as a result of relatively widespread convection the
past few days.  Still, boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F will be
enough for MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg despite muted surface heating with
clouds.  Vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some
supercell potential.  Isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter)
will be the main threat, though low-level moisture and hodograph
curvature suggest that an isolated tornado will also be possible.

...Elsewhere...
Isolated lightning flashes may occur early Sunday morning near the
OR coast with low-topped convection as he midlevel cold core
approaches.  A few thunderstorms will also be possible across
southeast FL in the moist northeasterly flow around the western
periphery of a midlevel low over the Bahamas.

..Thompson.. 10/24/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes were needed for this outlook update. The forecast remains
on track with no significant fire weather concerns across CONUS.

..Williams.. 10/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
Reduced fire weather concerns are expected today across the CONUS. A
cold front will bring cooler temperatures and higher relative
humidity to the northern High Plains. Dry northeasterly surface flow
along the southern periphery of the eastern US surface high will
continue across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
southern Gulf States amid above normal temperatures. Despite warm
and dry conditions, fairly light winds are expected which will keep
fire weather concerns low.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...