No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 25 00:01:02 UTC 2026.MD 0047 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...Portions of the southern Appalachians
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 242345Z - 250445Z
SUMMARY...A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to
slowly spread north and east over the next 3-5 hours across portions
of the southern Appalachians. Areas currently observing snow will
likely see a transition to sleet/freezing rain during this period.
Freezing rain rates of 0.05 to 0.1 inch/hour appear possible.
DISCUSSION...Recent RAP/HRRR solutions appear to be capturing
ongoing precipitation-type trends well per latest ASOS/AWOS
observations and mPING reports. Surface observations also depict a
trough axis extending from southwest AL into the southern
Appalachians where surface pressure falls on the order of
approximately 1 mb/hour have been noted since 18 UTC. As broad-scale
ascent continues to increase with the gradual approach of the upper
wave to the west, further intensification of the surface trough
across the Southeast and lee of the southern Appalachians is
expected with a slight augmentation of southerly low-level winds and
warm air advection. This will shift the low-level freezing line
northward over the next several hours, resulting in a transition
from predominantly snow to a mixture of freezing rain and sleet (and
potentially to rain if surface temperatures can sufficiently warm).
Additionally, as low-level ascent spreads east/northeast, freezing
rain/sleet should become more widespread across portions of the
western Carolinas and into parts of VA - especially as low-level
saturation is achieved later this evening. Latest forecast guidance
continues to suggest that freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05 to 0.1
inch/hour will be possible.
..Moore.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...
OHX...
LAT...LON 35968364 35848447 35848534 36048575 36278604 36598610
36788603 37178545 37808395 37998272 37958136 37858062
37467986 37017942 36367926 36017933 35767940 35337952
35067980 34888025 34878078 34998133 35288162 35578206
35858246 35988299 35968364
MD 0046 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into West Texas and far
southwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 242117Z - 250115Z
SUMMARY...An increase in precipitation coverage and intensity is
expected into the evening.
DISCUSSION...A potent mid-level shortwave trough can be seen across
northern Mexico on water vapor imagery. This trough is starting to
take on a negative tilt as it advances towards Far West Texas. As
this occurs, large-scale ascent will strengthen across the southern
High Plains.
This will result in an increase in coverage and intensity of
precipitation late this afternoon and into the evening. Regional
radar imagery shows this expansion beginning already with cooling
cloud tops upstream across northern Mexico and Far West Texas.
Forecast soundings support sleet across much of this area late this
afternoon and into early evening. However, the sleet/snow line will
move gradually southeast through the evening as temperatures cool
aloft.
Sleet accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour and snow
accumulations of 1 inch per hour are expected as forcing increases.
Particularly closer to 00Z.
..Bentley.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34160314 34690180 34790008 34479925 32320005 30890161
30150217 30130305 30490430 32110449 34160314
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to the thunderstorm forecast were made based on
current observations. Cold air remains in place across the lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon with ongoing and expected
precipitation reinforcing this airmass through Sunday morning. As
previously mentioned, a slow improvement in the environment is
possible from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and
western Alabama. Given the current observations, it may take longer
to move warm/moist air inland than expected. Confidence in this
occurring before 12Z Sunday remains too low for severe
probabilities. See the previous forecast for additional information.
..Wendt.. 01/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/
...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing is expected to remain over the
eastern 2/3 of the CONUS through the extended forecast, which will
continue to reinforce below average temperatures along/east of the
Rockies. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to return to
the Southwest and Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday before a series of
Pacific troughs come onshore mid-to-late next week and into the
weekend. Some wetting rainfall may accompany the troughs -
especially across portions of the Pacific NW into northern
California.
Overall, Critical fire weather concerns are forecast to remain low
across much of the CONUS through at least Day 8/Saturday. The one
exception might be across portions of the Florida Peninsula, where
little antecedent precipitation is forecast along/ahead of a mostly
dry cold front that is expected to move through the area Day
3/Monday. A dry and breezy post-frontal regime is forecast to remain
over the area through much of the week, which may promote periodic
Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions, especially as
fuels remain receptive owing to ongoing drought conditions. At this
time, fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a
40% Critical fire weather probability.
..Elliott.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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