Mesoscale Discussion 0105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Iowa...extreme southeast Minnesota...and
southwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 200500Z - 201000Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow will develop/spread across northeast Iowa into
southwest Wisconsin over the next several hours. Snow rates may
exceed 1 inch per hour at times.

DISCUSSION...Southwest-northeast oriented band of moderate-heavy
snow persists across IA late this evening. This band is expected to
spread/develop across northeast IA into southwest WI as the 700mb
low advances across eastern IA into southern WI by 12z. Latest
radar/satellite imagery suggest multiple heavier bands will begin to
coalesce along an axis from near ALO-PDC-VOK as the primary midlevel
circulation shifts east over the next few hours. While heavy snow
with rates around 1 inch per hour are expected, a very narrow zone
of mixed precipitation may exist along the eastern fringe of this
corridor briefly before transitioning to snow.

..Darrow.. 02/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43019271 43669143 44269029 43998980 42889077 42349218
            43019271 

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES

...SUMMARY...
Widely-scattered thunderstorms may occur today over parts of the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly across the Great Lakes and into
the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal Mid
Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will push east across VA and the
Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite this, a few
showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the front moving
offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but strong
westerlies just off the surface could support gusty winds.

To the south, the tail end of this front will stall in east-west
fashion across LA and southern MS/AL/GA. This boundary will move
northward overnight across parts of MS/AL/GA, with increasing
southwest flow at 850 mb ahead of another wave moving across the
southern Plains. Meanwhile, height tendencies aloft will be neutral.
While showers and a few thunderstorms may occur in this warm
advection regime late in the day and overnight, it appears warm
profiles aloft should reduce hail potential despite strong
deep-layer shear.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/20/2026