Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds
will be possible today from parts of the southern Plains eastward
into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Severe wind gusts
may also occur across portions of southern Arizona.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic...
Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded and convectively
enhanced vorticity maxima will advance slowly eastward today from
the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley/Midwest and TN Valley.
Ongoing thunderstorms across these regions this morning are being
aided by warm/moist advection from a modest west-southwesterly
low-level jet. Current expectations are for moderate instability to
develop by this afternoon along/south of a surface boundary that
will remain aligned generally southwest-northeast from parts of the
southern Plains into the lower MS Valley/TN Valley and Southeast.
Multiple thunderstorm clusters will likely form or persist later
today in this favorable thermodynamic regime. With modest westerly
mid-level flow present, east-southeastward propagation of
consolidated cold pools/outflow from these clusters will likely pose
a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds over a broad region as
low-level lapse rates steepen with filtered daytime heating.

The Slight Risk has been adjusted for both the influence of ongoing
morning convection and the potential for multiple clusters to spread
east-southeastward along a differential heating zone/instability
gradient across the Southeast and to the Atlantic Coast through
early evening. Isolated damaging winds may also occur farther north
along/near a weak synoptic front, but less instability is forecast
with northward extent into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Farther
west across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, at least
isolated thunderstorms should develop along/south of the front this
afternoon, even though large-scale ascent will remain weaker across
these regions due to closer proximity to prominent mid-level ridging
across the Rockies. This activity will move slowly
east-southeastward while posing a threat for both severe winds and
hail, as moderate to strong instability and modest deep-layer shear
support loosely organized multicells.

...Southern Arizona...
Mid/upper-level ridging will build further over the Rockies and
Southwest today, with weak easterly mid-level flow present over
parts of AZ. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass
(surface dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s across southeast AZ) will
support weak to locally moderate instability as the boundary layer
becomes very deeply mixed. Thunderstorms that initially develop
across the higher terrain should spread west-southwestward into the
lower desert elevations through the afternoon/evening, with severe
wind gusts possible given ample DCAPE and inverted-v type soundings.
Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/11/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 111700Z - 121200Z

Locally elevated conditions are likely to develop from the eastern
slopes of the southern Sierra into portions of southern/central
Nevada this afternoon as southerly winds of 10-15 mph overlap RH of
8-15%. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the
previous discussion for more details.

..Nauslar.. 07/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low deepening and progressing eastward towards
coastal British Columbia will serve to intensify the height gradient
with an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. The
intensification of the mid-level jet streak across the northern
Sierra Nevadas and Cascades will have a modest cross-range
component, and deep boundary-layer mixing beneath this jet should
result in dry and windy conditions supporting at least an Elevated
fire-weather threat. 

The best combination of winds and relative humidity is forecast to
be from portions of northeastern California into southern Oregon,
where winds should reach 15-20 MPH with 10-15% relative humidity. 
With fuels guidance showing ERCs around the 80th annual percentile,
at least Elevated fire-weather concerns are expected. There may be
some locally Critical conditions where favored by local topography,
but the expectation is that these will be spatially limited and
shorter duration.

Elevated highlights extend northward into the Washington Cascades,
and eastward into portions of Idaho and Montana, but the wind
magnitudes are forecast to be 10-15 MPH with 15-20% relative
humidity. While the meteorological conditions are not quite as
favorable, fuels guidance suggests more than sufficient
receptiveness to wildfire ignition and spread given ERCs in the
90th-95th annual percentiles.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...