Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri into west Texas.

...KS...
An upper ridge is centered over the central/southern Plains this
morning, but will break down through the forecast period as a series
of weak shortwave troughs emanate from the Rockies across the
central Plains.  Meanwhile, strong southerly low-level winds will
develop across TX/OK/KS, aiding in northward return of moisture and
considerable destabilization.  The western periphery of the
returning moisture will be noted by a diffuse dryline from western
KS into western OK, where temperatures will climb into the mid/upper
90s today.

By late afternoon, forecast parameters will be quite favorable for
supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds across much of
central KS.  However, weak large scale forcing and a formidable cap
to the east of the dryline significantly limits the confidence in
thunderstorm development/maintenance.  Any storm that forms will
pose a severe risk, but coverage may be very isolated.  Have shrunk
the risk areas, but will maintain the ongoing SLGT for now.

...West TX/OK...
The aforementioned dryline will extend southward across western OK
into west TX.  Hot and dry conditions will develop to the west of
the dryline, where model consensus suggesting scattered high-based
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon.  Forecast soundings
show near dry-adiabatic low and mid level lapse rates, and
sufficient CAPE for a risk of dry microbursts or occasional
multicell clusters capable of damaging winds.  This activity is
likely to struggle as it spreads east of the dryline this evening
due to a strong capping inversion.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/14/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN...D5/MON...

...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist
and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains
eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong
thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern
Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into
the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating
is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to
4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is
forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with
moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector
will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A
severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and
evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable
for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind
damage.

On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level
trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and
unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and
central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet
is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as
a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon.
Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the
airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast
Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in
the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be
supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind
gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be
possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.

...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the
central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the
central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface
dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to
contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm
development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of
the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of
the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly
southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley,
extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat
could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and
evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the
front is substantial at this extended range.