WW 181 SEVERE TSTM AL LA MS CW 291820Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest into South-Central Alabama
Southeast Louisiana
Central and Southern Mississippi
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM
until 900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms are forecast to intensify this
afternoon and persist into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms
will be capable of a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts
(55-70 mph). This activity will gradually push east-southeastward
towards the coast by mid evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of
Natchez MS to 30 miles east northeast of Evergreen AL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Smith
WW 180 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 291610Z - 300000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southern Arkansas
Northwest and Northern Louisiana
Northeast into East Texas
* Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1110 AM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop
with the stronger storms becoming supercells and yielding a risk for
large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Additional
storm development will likely lead to a linear thunderstorm cluster
evolving later this afternoon. The potential for damaging wind
gusts will become more prevalent as this transition in convective
mode occurs.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north of
Corsicana TX to 25 miles south southeast of Monroe LA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Smith
WW 0181 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 181
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
..MEAD..04/29/26
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 181
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-013-023-025-035-047-053-063-065-085-091-097-099-105-
119-129-131-292140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER
CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH
DALLAS ESCAMBIA GREENE
HALE LOWNDES MARENGO
MOBILE MONROE PERRY
SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX
LAC025-029-033-035-037-041-063-065-067-077-083-091-103-105-107-
117-121-123-125-292140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA FRANKLIN
LIVINGSTON MADISON MOREHOUSE
POINTE COUPEE RICHLAND ST. HELENA
WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..04/29/26
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 180
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-073-091-139-292140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER
UNION
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-292140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN
TXC001-035-037-063-067-073-099-119-139-145-159-161-183-193-203-
213-217-223-231-257-277-293-309-315-343-347-349-365-379-387-401-
403-405-419-423-449-459-467-499-292140-
MD 0621 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181... FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0621
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Areas affected...northeast Louisiana...central and southern
Mississippi...and southwest Alabama
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...
Valid 292002Z - 292200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for more widespread wind damage is expected
to increase across portions of central and southern Mississippi into
southwest Alabama over the next 2-3 hours.
DISCUSSION...A west-to-east-oriented band of strong to severe storms
is ongoing just south of the I-20 corridor in MS and northeast LA as
of 20z. Occurrences of hail to 1" and thunderstorm wind damage have
been reported in the Jackson, MS vicinity within the past hour.
Additional elevated storms ongoing to the west of the watch area
across northern LA are expected to merge with the predominant band
of storms over the next hour, which should enhance overall cold pool
strength. That process may lead to an accelerated southeastward
motion of the convective band from central into southern MS and
southwest AL with an attendant risk for more widespread damaging
winds.
Isolated occurrences of large hail will remain possible, especially
on the western flank of the convective system where mid-level lapse
rates are steeper.
..Mead.. 04/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 32069181 32549174 32809096 32718925 32598742 31718710
31098772 30768818 30738956 30819015 31099097 31389169
32069181
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 0620 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Areas affected...portions of the central/southern Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291845Z - 292045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon along/ahead of an approach cold front. A
couple of stronger storms may pose an isolated risk for marginally
severe hail, strong wind gusts, and a brief tornado. Watch issuance
is not anticipated at this time.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery has shown transient
strengthening of ongoing convective cores in the vicinity of
Charleston, West Virginia, over the past 30-60 minutes. Latest
high-res guidance continues to suggest additional development is
likely across the northern Cumberland and central/southern Blue
Ridge Mountains through the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold
front. Continued diurnal heating amid scattered cloud cover and
dewpoints in the upper-50s to lower-60s F are expected to promote
marginally greater buoyancy compared to areas farther north, with
latest forecast soundings indicating the presence of 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE by later this afternoon. Elongated hodographs and 35-45+ kts
of effective bulk shear amid strong flow aloft will support the
potential for marginally severe hail with any stronger convective
cores. Isolated strong wind gusts will also be possible given the
presence of drier mid-level air, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out given modest low-level hodograph curvature evident in regional
VWPs. Watch issuance is not anticipated at this time given the
overall expectation for limited threat coverage and magnitude.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
LAT...LON 36358060 35818114 35378183 35238239 35178321 35348363
35698381 36658340 37128310 38498226 38858179 39048070
38787968 38417948 37777965 37118005 36358060
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0619 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180... FOR NORTH TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX
Mesoscale Discussion 0619
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Areas affected...north Texas into the ArkLaTex
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180...
Valid 291837Z - 292030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180
continues.
SUMMARY...Large hail remains the predominant severe-weather threat
in the near term. The hail threat is developing to the west of the
current watch across portions of north Texas, and a local extension
in area may be need.
DISCUSSION...As of 1925z, mosaic radar data showed a broad zone of
elevated thunderstorms extending from the Brownwood, TX vicinity
into the ArkLaTex region. The most intense storms were located over
Cass and Marion Counties in northeast TX, and Claiborne Parish in
northwest LA with recent reports of 1.0-1.5" diameter hail with
those storms. Modest low-level warm advection atop a stable,
near-surface layer (per KFWD VWP) will continue to sustain the
ongoing storms within a moderately unstable and strongly sheared
environment. As such, the setup will remain favorable for embedded
supercell structures capable of large hail up to 2.5" in diameter.
The large-hail threat may materialize to the west of the current
watch area, and a local extension may be required.
Given the relatively closer proximity of the northwest LA storms to
the surface front, the threat for severe wind gusts may increase as
that activity continues southeast toward the boundary.
..Mead.. 04/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 31999864 32819794 33529518 33329299 33139229 32489216
31679217 31429321 31369388 31669530 31509825 31999864
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms should impact a corridor from parts
of Texas to the Gulf Coast states today. Scattered large to very
large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks with the
stronger storms.
...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Satellite imagery late this morning indicates high momentum
quasi-zonal flow from TX eastward across the central Gulf Coast. An
upstream perturbation over Chihuahua is forecast to move quickly
east today reaching central TX late this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are forecast to increase in
coverage/intensity mainly along/near a surface front draped from
west-central TX to southern AR. A moisture-rich airmass featuring
lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints south of the front, coupled with a
plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and some diurnal heating,
will contribute to 2000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE decreasing with east
extent.
A few initial thunderstorms clusters north of the surface front over
TX are expected to gradually intensify through early afternoon. The
moderate to very unstable airmass will combine with elongated/nearly
straight hodographs to support supercell development with the
stronger updrafts and an associated risk for large to very large
hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Have extended the 15-percent hail
and CIG1 hail delineation farther east into northeast TX and western
LA. For short-term forecast details, please refer to MCD #615.
Eventually upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected to
evolve across LA into the central Gulf Coast states later this
afternoon. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for large hail will
be the primary hazards with the stronger storms.
Farther west, isolated to widely scattered intense storm development
is forecast across the Edwards Plateau this afternoon. This
activity may eventually focus closer to the Rio Grande later this
evening with a large to very large hail threat persisting well after
dark.
...Upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an
eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer
moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Forecast soundings over western PA show some
low-level hodograph curvature within a moist environment. Main
uncertainty across the upper OH Valley is the magnitude of
destabilization in this area given ongoing scattered showers and
widespread cloud cover. Nonetheless, a couple of stronger storms
could yield an isolated risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief
tornado later this afternoon, especially near/southeast of a weak
surface low. Farther south, isolated wind/hail will be possible
with the stronger thunderstorms through the late afternoon/early
evening.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 04/29/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of Texas to the Gulf
Coast states today. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are the primary risks, with giant hail possible in parts of
south-central Texas.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced
Risk for portions of the Edwards Plateau into south-central TX --
driven by a CIG2 (intensity level 2/2) hail area. The latest visible
satellite imagery indicates an agitated boundary-layer cumulus field
evolving east of Fort Stockton in Crockett County, where attempts at
isolated convective initiation are underway. Current thinking is
that continued diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s
dewpoints) and upslope flow enhancements will result in isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening.
Current thinking is that storms will track/develop southeastward
into a corridor of strong to extreme buoyancy -- driven by steep
midlevel lapse rates (around 8.5 C/km per 12Z DRT sounding) atop the
destabilizing PBL. This, combined with a long/straight hodograph
(60-70 kt of effective shear) and modest forcing for ascent will
favor intense discrete/splitting supercells. Given the modest
forcing for ascent, it is unclear how many storms will form in this
corridor, though any sustained supercells will pose a risk of very
large to giant hail (3-4+ inches in diameter).
..Weinman.. 04/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026/
...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Satellite imagery late this morning indicates high momentum
quasi-zonal flow from TX eastward across the central Gulf Coast. An
upstream perturbation over Chihuahua is forecast to move quickly
east today reaching central TX late this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are forecast to increase in
coverage/intensity mainly along/near a surface front draped from
west-central TX to southern AR. A moisture-rich airmass featuring
lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints south of the front, coupled with a
plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and some diurnal heating,
will contribute to 2000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE decreasing with east
extent.
A few initial thunderstorms clusters north of the surface front over
TX are expected to gradually intensify through early afternoon. The
moderate to very unstable airmass will combine with elongated/nearly
straight hodographs to support supercell development with the
stronger updrafts and an associated risk for large to very large
hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Have extended the 15-percent hail
and CIG1 hail delineation farther east into northeast TX and western
LA. For short-term forecast details, please refer to MCD #615.
Eventually upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected to
evolve across LA into the central Gulf Coast states later this
afternoon. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for large hail will
be the primary hazards with the stronger storms.
Farther west, isolated to widely scattered intense storm development
is forecast across the Edwards Plateau this afternoon. This
activity may eventually focus closer to the Rio Grande later this
evening with a large to very large hail threat persisting well after
dark.
...Upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an
eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer
moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Forecast soundings over western PA show some
low-level hodograph curvature within a moist environment. Main
uncertainty across the upper OH Valley is the magnitude of
destabilization in this area given ongoing scattered showers and
widespread cloud cover. Nonetheless, a couple of stronger storms
could yield an isolated risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief
tornado later this afternoon, especially near/southeast of a weak
surface low. Farther south, isolated wind/hail will be possible
with the stronger thunderstorms through the late afternoon/early
evening.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
BIG BEND INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to marginally severe storms may impact the Big
Bend region into central Texas late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night.
...Synopsis...
Strong mid-level winds will persist along/near a surface front in
central/south Texas. Through the period, a compact shortwave trough
will approach the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend, arriving late Thursday into
Friday morning. A very moist airmass will be in place near/south of
the surface boundary. Isolated to widely scattered strong/marginally
severe storms may occur during the afternoon into the overnight.
...Hill Country/Central Texas...
A very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) near and south of
the surface boundary will be in place. As this airmass interacts
with the terrain in northern Mexico, a couple of strong to severe
storms may move into the Rio Grande Valley region and into the
Edwards Plateau/Hill Country. A less certain scenario will be storms
developing on the boundary more towards parts of central Texas.
Guidance does suggest some potential cloud clearing and surface
heating that could support modest surface-based buoyancy. Forcing
for ascent will be weak during the afternoon and largely depend on
frontal convergence. In either case, strong westerly mid-level flow
and sufficient mid-level lapse rates would support marginally severe
hail with the strongest activity. Additional development could occur
overnight as the upper trough approaches the Big Bend region. These
elevated storms would pose a similar marginal hail threat.
...Big Bend...
During the afternoon, a modest dryline feature will be situated
within the Permian Basin/Big Bend regions. This dryline circulation
is not expected to be overly strong given the cloud cover
anticipated, though downslope warming/drying will still lead to a
sharp moisture gradient. It is possible an isolated storm or two
could develop on this boundary, but confidence is not high given the
shortwave ridging that will be present during the afternoon. There
is higher confidence in storms initiating within the Davis Mountains
and nearby higher terrain in Mexico as the shortwave trough
approaches overnight Thursday. Moist, upslope flow into the region
will increase by mid evening. Isolated to widely scattered supercell
structures are possible, though overall intensity of storms may be
limited by the cooler temperatures by that point in the period.
Marginally severe hail would be the main concern with this activity.
Some guidance does suggest the development of linear structures
progressing eastward toward the Edwards plateau. Potential for wind
gusts with that activity appears low given near-surface stability
evident in forecast soundings.
..Wendt.. 04/29/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across the
middle Texas coast, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the Florida
Big Bend region Friday afternoon through Friday night.
...Synopsis...
A subtropical shortwave trough will move out of central Texas and
parallel the Gulf Coast region. The shortwave trough will lose
amplitude with time, but a northern stream shortwave trough will dig
southeastward and phase with the southern wave. The mid-level jet
will intensify as this process occurs. A surface boundary will be
placed roughly along the Gulf Coast with the degree of rich inland
moisture uncertain.
...Middle Texas Coast...
As the shortwave trough progresses eastward towards coastal Texas,
lift will be favorably timed with afternoon heating. The main
question will be how far inland, if at all, the moist airmass will
be by that time. The ECMWF is more aggressive with its southward
push of the cold front than the NAM. Should the front stay inland,
mid-level ascent will likely promote a storm or two along the
boundary. Strong effective shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
moderate buoyancy suggests supercells would be possible. Large hail
and damaging winds would be the main hazards.
...Central/eastern Gulf Coast...
Though the shortwave trough is expected to become less amplified,
the mid-level jet will still strengthen with time as another
shortwave trough digging southeastward from the central Plains will
phase with the southern stream trough. Subject to the same surface
boundary placement uncertainty as farther west, storms could
potentially develop after 00Z in southeastern Louisiana with
additional storms possible later in the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend
region. Supercells/linear segments are possible. Large hail and
damaging winds would be a concern, but an increase in low-level
hodograph curvature also suggests a tornado or two could also occur
with the most organized storms.
..Wendt.. 04/29/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...Southwest...
Dry and breezy conditions including west-southwest winds of 15 mph
(approaching 20 mph locally) and RH ranging from 5-15%, are still
expected across eastern AZ into much of western NM through this
afternoon. A slight eastward expansion of Elevated Highlights was
made into far west TX to include the Davis Mountains. Overnight
cloud cover contributed to poor overnight recoveries across the
area. Stronger west-southwest flow aloft and lee surface troughing
across the southern High Plains will aid in stalling the
southwestward advancement of a cold front across eastern NM and much
of TX. This will allow dry and breezy conditions to continue across
the area through the afternoon.
...Southern Georgia and Northern Florida...
A weak surface trough stretches southwestward from a low over the
Northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic and into the Coastal Plains
region of southern GA. Clearing skies will aid in boundary layer
mixing through the afternoon, manifesting in west wind of around 10
mph. RH reductions of 25-35% are expected during peak heating,
supporting elevated fire weather conditions amid receptive and
drought stressed fuels. Rainfall from decaying convection overnight
into this morning has moderated fuels across portions of southern
GA, reducing overall fire weather threat. Elevated highlights have
been contracted on the northern and western peripheries to account
for a temporary lull in fire danger.
..Williams.. 04/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper level shortwave trough will traverse the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley as an attendant surface low approaches the
Mid-Atlantic. A trailing cold front will progress east of the
Appalachians extending into the Southeast by this afternoon. Dry
westerly flow south of the advancing cold front is expected to
increase fire weather concerns for portions of southern GA and
northern FL where fuels remain dry. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow
ahead of an approaching Pacific trough will bolster a continued
downslope regime across the Southwest. With preceding days of
fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels, fire weather
concerns will persist over central NM to far eastern AZ this
afternoon.
...Southwest...
Upper-level cloud cover is currently increasing across much of the
Southwest and southern Plains early this morning owing to a
subtropical jet advecting moisture aloft. This will likely inhibit
RH recoveries west of the NM central mountain chain, preconditioning
an already dry fuel environment. A 50-60 kt mid-level jet at the
base of an embedded, low-amplitude shortwave within broader
west-southwest flow will evolve across the Southwest and southern
Plains today, promoting continued dry and breezy conditions.
Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH of less than 15 percent amid dry
fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat for portions of
eastern AZ into central NM/West TX and the San Luis Valley. Locally
critical fire weather conditions may emerge mainly in the leeward
slopes of the more prominent mountain ranges in southern NM with
sustained winds of 20-25 mph amid 10 percent RH.
...Southern Georgia and Northern Florida...
Beneath the upper level trough, a deepening surface low over the
Mid-Atlantic will enhance southwest to westerly surface winds across
much of the Southeast as minimal Gulf moisture influence will
overlap a dry and drought stressed landscape. West winds of around
10 mph and RH of 25-35 percent (locally less than 25 percent) are
expected to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across portions
of southern GA into northern FL this afternoon. Early morning
thunderstorms are currently moving across central AL into far
western GA, but are expected to diminish as they approach the
Elevated risk area. However, if precipitation persists farther
southeast than anticipated, fire weather highlights will be adjusted
in the 17z outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...Florida Peninsula...
A cold front will slowly sag southward towards the Gulf Coast into
northern FL by Thursday afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms
along this boundary are expected mainly along and north of the
Interstate 10 corridor across northern FL. Receptive fuels could
support lightning ignitions where precipitation is minimized along
with a potential impact to existing fires from outflow winds. South
of this boundary, steady west winds around 10 mph and RH reductions
of 20-35% amid drought stressed fuels will support an elevated fire
weather threat for central portions of the FL Peninsula during peak
boundary layer mixing in the afternoon. A slight southeastward shift
and extension into eastern FL coast was warranted based on latest
forecast guidance, with a westerly offshore component and related
dry conditions persisting through the day.
..Williams.. 04/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level Pacific low will move onshore the Baja Peninsula
and transition into an eastward projecting shortwave as a westerly
50-70 kt jet emerges downstream across central TX into the Southeast
on Thursday. Ample Pacific moisture transport will encourage
widespread wetting rains and a reduced fire weather threat across
much of the central and southern High Plains. Broad upper troughing
is forecast to take residence across the Northeast as a closed
upper-level low persists over southern Ontario. A southward
progressing weak cold front will eventually stall over southern GA
and northern FL on Thursday afternoon, bringing increased
precipitation chances to where extensive drought and receptive fuels
remain. However, ahead of the front, high pressure will promote a
warm and dry airmass over Central FL where fire weather concerns
reemerge amid a very dry fuelscape.
...Florida Peninsula...
Ahead of a stalled frontal boundary near the FL-GA line, surface
high pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions for much of the
FL Peninsula on Thursday afternoon. An Elevated fire weather threat
is expected where westerly winds of up to 10 mph will partially
overlap a region of 30-35 percent RH amid receptive fuels and a
drought-ridden environment. Near the frontal boundary, increasing
mid-level moisture along with afternoon heating and resultant
instability may support isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lightning ignitions are possible in areas that do not see sufficient
rainfall, and resultant gusty/erratic outflow winds from
thunderstorms could further exacerbate any new/ongoing fires.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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