Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG THE
MIDDLE-LOWER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of south Texas. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado
appear possible.

...Middle-lower TX coast today...
A midlevel low over northern Mexico will drift slowly eastward and
weaken through the period.  At the surface, a baroclinic zone along
the middle-lower TX coast will provide a focus for thunderstorms
rooted at the surface, where boundary-layer dewpoints will remain
near 70 F.  Per the 12z observed soundings/VWPs/model forecasts,
deep-layer vertical shear will remain sufficient for some embedded
rotating storms, with the relatively stronger low-level
shear/hodograph curvature expected along the north edge of the
surface-based buoyancy with a small MCV just south of CRP.  Poor
midlevel lapse rates will temper the overall severe threat, though
an isolated, weak tornado and/or localized wind damage will be
possible with embedded circulations today.

Otherwise, elevated thunderstorms will remain possible from the
Edwards Plateau into interior south TX in a moist environment with
ascent and weak buoyancy atop the cooler near-surface air mass.

...Pacific Northwest and the lower Great Lakes...
The potential for isolated lightning flashes with low-topped
convection will diminish across northwest WA by about midday as a
midlevel trough moves inland and height rises ensue.  A separate
midlevel trough will continue southeastward over the lower Great
Lakes by this evening into early tonight.  Cooling midlevel
temperatures and weak buoyancy aided by the relatively warm lakes
will support convection that could become sufficiently deep to
support charge separation and isolated lightning flashes.

..Thompson/Barnes.. 11/08/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across
the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that a strong, initially zonal,
mid/upper jet across the mid-latitude Pacific will undergo
amplification Monday through Monday night.  As this occurs, split
downstream flow, across and inland of the Pacific coast, may trend
more confluent east of the Rockies through the Atlantic
Seaboard.  Within an evolving branch across the subtropical
latitudes, it appears that a remnant cyclonic mid-level circulation
will continue to become increasingly sheared across and
east-northeast of the Texas Big Bend vicinity.  Upstream, one or two
short wave perturbations emerging from the mid-latitude eastern
Pacific are also forecast to undergo considerable deformation, while
progressing inland within generally building larger-scale mid-level
ridging.

...Southern Texas...
Recent runs of the Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh
support previous other model output indicating that potential for
occasional scattered thunderstorm development will continue into
this period.  It appears that this will still be largely supported
by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, downstream of the weakening mid-level perturbation into
Monday afternoon, before tending to diminish by Monday evening.

...Pacific Northwest...
REFS, and now GEFS, calibrated thunderstorm guidance continue to
indicate at least low probabilities for convection capable of
producing lightning across and inland of the Oregon coast into
Cascades by late Monday afternoon.  This would likely
accompany destabilization beneath an inland progressing thermal
trough, in the presence of strengthening and moistening low-level
onshore flow.  However, coldest mid-level temperatures (including
-18 to -22 C around 500 mb) overspreading the Pacific Northwest are
forecast to remain rather modest in magnitude, and it remains
unclear in forecast soundings the extent to which thermodynamic
profiles will become supportive of lightning discharge.  At this
point, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10 percent,
with any convection that becomes capable of producing lightning
brief in nature and rather sparse in coverage.

..Kerr.. 11/08/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across
the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output continues to indicate substantive further
amplification within the stronger westerlies across the mid-latitude
Pacific through this period. This is forecast to include building
mid-level ridging within the split downstream regime, across the
Great Basin through western Canadian Prairies.  As this occurs, it
appears that several shorter wavelength perturbations to the east
will dig and begin to consolidate into larger-scale mid-level
troughing across Manitoba/Ontario through the middle and lower
Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night.  However, the larger-scale
pattern east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard is likely
to remain at least broadly confluent, with an embedded
lower-latitude perturbation becoming increasingly sheared across
central Texas through the Gulf Coast states.

In association with this evolving regime, low probabilities for
thunderstorms may lingering near inverted surface troughing near,
but generally offshore of, lower/middle Texas coastal areas. 
Otherwise, generally stable conditions are likely to prevail across
most of the nation through at least 12Z Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 11/08/2026