Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday
afternoon into Monday night. A conditional threat for severe storms
with large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Strengthening mid-level flow will move out of Canada today,
deepening the Eastern US trough, with a surface low developing
across Ontario and a cold front shifting south across the northern
Plains into the central Plains and Midwest. Across the west, flow
will strengthen in within a cutoff low just off the shore of
California before overspreading portions of the Southwest into the
Southern Plains. A surface low is expected to develop across Kansas,
with a dryline extending south into Oklahoma/north Texas. Areas of
strong to severe storms will be possible from the Midwest into
portions of eastern Kansas and south into Oklahoma/northern Texas.

...Eastern Kansas into Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorm development will likely be delayed until the late
afternoon/evening across eastern Kansas into Missouri owing to
strong MLCIN and generally weak forcing. Daytime heating and dew
points in the mid 50s to 60s should yield moderate MLCAPE across a
region from eastern Kansas northward into Missouri and western
Illinois. As the low-level jet increases into the evening with the
cold front shifting south, scattered thunderstorm development is
expected. Initially, strongly sheared profiles and steep lapse rates
will support supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind,
primarily across eastern Kansas. Through time as additional storms
develop and cluster along the front, the risk for damaging wind may
increase. A few CAM members suggest a few clusters/bowing segments
may move across northern Missouri and west-central Illinois, though
there is disagreement in location/timing. A corridor of higher wind
probabilities and upgrade to Slight may be warranted as details
become clearer.

...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...
Scattered thunderstorm development will continue further north into
the Great Lakes region along the cold front. Moisture becomes more
limited with northern extent which may limit the severe threat.
However, strong flow aloft and steep lapse rates may still support
downward mixing and swaths of strong to severe wind.

...South-central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A more conditional threat for storms will exist along the dryline
across southern Kansas into central Oklahoma and northern Texas.
Strong daytime heating is expected across this region along and
behind the dryline. Forecast sounding comparison indicates the
dryline circulation will be strong and deep through the afternoon.
Mid-level capping will likely inhibit convection until stronger flow
aloft overspreads the region by the late afternoon/evening. The
low-level jet will also strengthen at this time, with MLCIN eroding.
It is possible that an isolated supercell or two could develop and
produce large to very large hail (some 2+ inches). The best signal
for this is near the Red River in southern Oklahoma/northern Texas.
However, a few members do have development further north across
northern Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/04/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South. Additional strong storms are
possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...

Upper troughing centered on the north-central U.S. will phase with
an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest on Tuesday. As this
occurs, strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will develop
across the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from
southern Lower MI to a surface low over central OK. A dryline will
extend southwestward from the central OK low into central/southwest
TX. The cold front is expected to develop east/southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from the Northeast to southern AR and
northern TX by Wednesday morning. Two areas of severe potential are
expected to be focused ahead of the surface cold front, one across
parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South and the second across
the Northeast.

...Southern Plains to the Mid-South...

Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward to
the east of the surface dryline and as far north as the MO Bootheel
vicinity. Some morning convection or cloud cover is expected across
parts of southern MO toward the MO/OH River confluence. Persistent
warm advection may result in scattered cloudiness across much of the
ArkLaTex and Ozarks vicinity as well. Nevertheless, modest cooling
aloft by late afternoon will aid in steepening midlevel lapse rates
atop the moist boundary layer, supporting MLCAPE in the 1000-2000
J/kg range. Instability will decrease with northeast extent into the
Mid-South. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. Convection may tend to
become linear more quickly across the Mid-South where shear vectors
are parallel to the surface boundary. Further south across parts of
AR into northeast TX closer to the surface triple point, low-level
flow may be less veered and shear vectors supporting initially
discrete cells. Any convection that can remain
semi-discrete/cellular will pose a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a tornado or two. With time, convection will evolve into
linear segments as a low-level jet increases and the front begins to
develop southeastward. 

The risk is more conditional along the dryline with southwestward
extent across TX. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this area
and the main initiation mechanism will be mixing/dryline
circulations. If storms can develop, hail and strong gusts will be
possible.

...Northeast...

A shortwave upper trough over the Great Lakes will develop
east/northeast across Ontario and Quebec through the evening. Strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Northeast as this
occurs. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, with dewpoints
generally in the 40s to low 50s. However, cold temperatures aloft
will foster steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting modest
destabilization during the afternoon/evening (generally less than
1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Increasing large-scale ascent and the approach of
the surface boundary will result in isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development. Strong gusts will be the main risk with
storms given the strength of deep-layer flow and a well mixed
boundary layer. However, isolated hail also will be possible given
35+ kt effective shear and 500 mb temperatures near -18 C.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Texas to the Lower MS and TN Valleys...

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern
Rockies to the southern Plains on Wednesday. Strong southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains into much of the
southern and eastern U.S. ahead of this feature. At the surface, a
cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley southwestward to
southern AR Wednesday morning, with the western extent of the front
sloped across northeast to southwest TX. Ahead of the front, rich
Gulf moisture will be in place with dewpoints generally in the mid
60s to near 70 across TX into the Lower MS Valley, decreasing with
northeast extent. This will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization ahead of the front from parts of TX into MS where
MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg is possible. Instability will be
somewhat less with northeast extent across the TN Valley.

Storm mode is somewhat uncertain Wednesday afternoon. If discrete
cells can develop, steep lapse rates, favorable thermodynamic,
elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes
suggest supercells with an all-hazards risk will be possible.
However, given deep layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
southward progressing front, convection may tend to become linear
quickly. This would increase damaging wind potential. Given
uncertainty in storm mode, declined introducing a CIG 1 area for
hail. In general, convection should develop during the afternoon and
spread east/southeast with time through the overnight hours, with an
accompany severe risk.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026