Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Pacific Northwest...

Within the southern fringe of a broader precipitation band preceding
a vigorous short-wave trough, embedded convective elements
sufficiently deep for lightning generation have recently moved onto
the OR coast. Modification of the 00Z UIL sounding for a slightly
warmer and more moist PBL farther to the south yields a narrow CAPE
profile extending upwards into the -10 to -20 C layer with MUCAPE of
a few hundred J/kg, which is consistent with the lightning
observations. A similar thermodynamic environment is expected to
spread inland this evening into tonight, supporting the continuation
of sporadic lightning occurrences. Turbulent downward mixing of
stronger flow aloft may yield a few strong wind gusts; however,
severe weather is not expected. 


...Portions of Deep South Texas to the middle Texas Coast....

As of 00Z, the most vigorous convection was located offshore to the
southeast of Brownsville, within a zone of stronger surface-based
buoyancy. Farther north along the lower to middle TX Coast, a modest
low-level warm-advection regime is expected to persist overnight, in
which a few elevated thunderstorms will remain possible amidst a
marginally unstable environment (per 00Z BRO/CRP soundings).

..Mead.. 11/10/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified flow pattern develops across the CONUS through
late this week. Ridging across the western U.S. will contribute to
above normal temperatures and dry conditions through Day 5/Friday
under a relatively light wind regime. Farther east, broad troughing
will envelop the eastern U.S. with a strong surface low moving into
the Mid Atlantic as a trailing cold front sweeps towards the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts. A post-frontal air mass will filter into the
Southeast on Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday bringing dry, offshore flow to
the Deep South. Preceding precipitation in the Day 3/Wednesday into
Day 4/Thursday time frame could mitigate impact from the enhanced
north/northwesterly winds and lower RH. 

An upper-level trough is expected to enter the western U.S. this
weekend bringing rain and high elevation snow to much of the
Intermountain West, alleviating fire weather concerns across the
region into early next week. Warm and dry conditions across the
central and northern High Plains ahead of the trough should allow
for drier fuels to develop into the weekend but lack of overlapping
dry and breezy conditions should limit the fire weather threat.

..Williams.. 11/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...