Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A negative-tilt shortwave trough responsible for isolated
thunderstorms over eastern Lower MI this evening will continue to
lift north across the Great Lakes, while westerly winds at 850 mb
maintain a degree of instability over southwest Ontario and perhaps
into parts of western NY. Thunderstorm chances here will be
relatively low.

To the south, height falls will occur overnight across the Mid MS
and OH Valleys as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across KS
and OK. Isolated activity may occur into Thursday morning from parts
of MO into TN and IL/IN as elevated instability develops within a
subtle warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough.

Elsewhere, lift will increase across northern CA as a shortwave
trough dives southeastward just offshore. Cold temperatures aloft
and relatively warmer air near the coast may yield a few lightning
flashes overnight.

..Jewell.. 02/19/2026