URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 667
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southwest Kansas
  Oklahoma
  Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph possible
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase and intensify near an
outflow boundary across Oklahoma, and also near a front across
Kansas as well as eastern parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.
Damaging winds will be the primary concern, with some hail possible
as well.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of Alva
OK to 40 miles east southeast of Chandler OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29020.

...Guyer

STATUS FOR WATCH 0667 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

Mesoscale Discussion 2288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...extreme southeast Oklahoma into southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122155Z - 122300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible with the stronger
downbursts, especially if storms can continue to merge. However, the
severe threat should remain sparse, with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multiple pulse cells and multicells have intensified
over the past few hours, and are beginning to show signs of possible
larger scale merging. If this occurs, ample evaporative cooling
potential exists with cold pool mergers given a well-mixed boundary
layer, characterized by 20-30 F T/Td spreads and over 1500 J/kg
DCAPE. Damaging gusts may occur with the stronger downbursts and at
the intersections of thunderstorm outflow boundaries. Nonetheless,
the severe threat should remain isolated at best, and a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34599526 34889376 34819258 34429200 33829175 33339192
            33129257 33069311 33199375 33989500 34599526 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

Mesoscale Discussion 2287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 122044Z - 122215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A corridor of at least marginally severe hail or wind may
develop across most of northeast Kansas, perhaps western Missouri
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Despite northeasterly boundary-layer winds and cool
temperatures, sporadic elevated storms have affected the region for
much of the day. Recently, a stronger/larger area of storms has
developed, and produced a wind gust of 51 kt at Concordia, KS.
Models suggest up to 2000 J/kg elevated MUCAPE is present currently.

Aiding storm intensity are steep lapse rates aloft and favorable
effective shear over 40 kt. Given the size of the existing storm
cluster, this zone bears watching, with possible watch consideration
downstream over the next hour or so.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39739725 39369563 39139527 38949517 38549516 38349555
            38579620 38869712 39119756 39309767 39609757 39739725 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing
large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur across
parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks this afternoon and
evening.

...20Z Update...
The SLGT Risk in the central/southern Plains was expanded
southwestward across parts of western OK. Here, visible satellite
imagery shows increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus and
isolated convective initiation along the western portion of a
remnant outflow boundary. Temperatures in the 102-104F range
along/south of the wind shift will support scattered severe wind
gusts with any clusters that evolve. Additionally, the 15-percent
hail probabilities were expanded westward into parts of southwest KS
and northwest OK. Given steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying an
EML (sampled by the 18Z DDC sounding), initial semi-discrete
supercells should pose a risk of scattered severe hail before
clustering occurs. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track
and minimal changes were needed.

..Weinman.. 09/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026/

...Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
Scattered mainly elevated thunderstorms continue at midday across
the region, including the strongest/occasionally-severe storms
across southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas that are occurring
near/just behind a southeastward-moving cold front. Some severe hail
will remain possible as these storms continue southeastward on the
edge of the primary instability reservoir. 

This front, augmented by early day outflows, will otherwise serve as
a focus for more robust thunderstorm development this
afternoon/evening as well. With a rather moist low-level airmass
forecast to be present along/south of the front, current
expectations are for a narrow zone of moderate to strong instability
(MLCAPE 2000-3500 J/kg) to develop this afternoon from the eastern
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma. Weak low-level winds will veer to west-northwesterly and
strengthen some with height through mid/upper levels, supporting
around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. While
large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak/nebulous across the
southern/central Plains, most guidance shows at least isolated
robust thunderstorm development along the front by 21-23Z as
convective temperatures are reached.

Any sustained supercells would pose a threat for large to very large
hail, with steep mid-level lapse rates and ample instability in the
hail-growth zone supporting potential for 2+ inch
diameter hail on an isolated basis. Somewhat higher-based convection
is expected from the eastern Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into
southwest/south-central Kansas and northern Oklahoma, where a very
well-mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse rates
will promote an environment that supports severe-caliber downdraft
winds. Some gusts could exceed 75 mph. A degree of storm clustering
could occur into this evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
A regional pocket of relatively cloud-free skies at midday will
contribute to filtered diurnal heating and moderate instability
across the region. Thunderstorms will further increase in coverage
and intensity through the afternoon, aided by forcing for ascent
associated with an approaching weak mid-level shortwave trough.
While mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, sufficient deep-layer
shear coupled with modest steepening of low-level lapse rates
suggest some risk for occasional damaging winds with any loosely
organized clusters/line segments that develop.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather, appears possible across parts of the central
Great Plains into Upper Midwest late Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Monday
with a strengthening 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak. The surface
pattern will feature a surface low across the Canadian Prairies and
a secondary weaker surface low across the central Plains. A moist
airmass will advect northward to the east of the surface trough with
mid to upper 60s dewpoints advecting into Nebraska and Iowa.  

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota amid moderate isentropic
ascent. The primary forecast concern for Monday will be northward
progression of the surface boundary across eastern Nebraska and
Iowa. Guidance varies with the northward recovery in the wake of
morning activity, but forecast soundings in regions where this
recovery does occur show a conditional supercell environment with
the threat for all severe weather hazards. 

Given the influence of morning convection, the exact location of the
greatest threat will likely shift in the coming days. However, given
that most guidance showed a convective signal aligned with a
conditionally favorable supercell environment in the vicinity of
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, added a small Slight Risk across
this region to account for this threat. 

An elevated hail threat may persist into Monday evening farther
northeast given a strong low-level jet and moderate elevated
instability. Some surface based storm threat could continue into the
overnight hours along the boundary, but most guidance shows storms
north of the boundary during the overnight period. 

Storms will likely form within the well-mixed environment across
eastern Colorado and western Kansas Monday afternoon. Weak shear
should limit storm organization, but strong heating and steep lapse
rates may support isolated severe wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/12/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

An upper-level low and attendant 70 mid-level jet over the Pacific
Northwest will progress into the Northern Rockies through D2/Sunday.
Dry, southwest wind ahead of a surface cold front augmented by the
robust mid-level flow and efficient daytime boundary layer mixing
will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the southern Great
Basin Sunday. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph and RH reductions of
10-15% will promote an elevated fire weather threat for southern NV
and west-central UT. Farther north, west/southwest post-frontal
winds of around 15 mph (locally 20 mph) are expected across much of
northern NV, including the Sierra Front into southern ID and parts
of southwestern MT. Although cooler, daytime RH is still expected to
fall close to 15% by mid-afternoon within an increasingly dry
post-frontal air mass. Fuels across the Great Basin continue to dry
with ERCs nearing the 80th percentile in some locations.

..Williams.. 09/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026/

...Synopsis...
As an upper-level low and associated 70 kt jet streak moves from the
Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies on Sunday, dry and gusty
conditions at the surface will support Elevated fire-weather
conditions over much of the Great Basin into the Snake River Valley
and portions of southwestern Montana. 

...Great Basin into portions of Idaho and Montana...
Beneath the compact upper-level low and associated strong jet
streak, deep boundary layer mixing will result in broad, gusty
southwest flow of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity around 15%.
Elevated fire-weather conditions could persist as the upper low
progresses eastward and a relatively dry cold front moves across the
region. Fuels guidance has ERCs generally at or below the 70th
annual percentiles, tempering overall fire-weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

...Synopsis...
A deamplifying upper-level trough moves into the Great Lakes region
by Day 4/Tuesday as ridging continues across the southern CONUS,
generating some fire weather concerns for portions of the
central/northern High Plains on Day 3/Monday. Otherwise, a relaxing
mid/upper jet pattern will emerge across the northern U.S. next week
as stronger westerly flow aloft shifts into Canada. A less dynamic
upper trough should move into the northwestern U.S. by midweek, but
surface pressure response and resultant wind speeds will be muted
mitigating a broader scale fire weather threat. The upper trough
should also aid in suppressing subtropical moisture influx into CA
and the Great Basin, where mostly dry conditions will prevail.

...Day 3/Monday...
...Portions of the Northern High Plains...
A 65-75 knot mid-level jet associated with the eastward progressing
upper wave across the Northern Rockies will move into the Northern
Plains through Day 3/Monday. In response, a deepening lee surface
trough evolves across the central/northern Plains. Strong westerly
winds (15-25 mph) stretching from southern WY to the NE Panhandle
and low daytime RH will support a fire weather threat Monday.
Farther north, a similarly windy environment within dry,
post-frontal flow from the west-northwest, could also present fire
weather concerns across portions of northern WY, far southeastern MT
and parts of western SD. 40% critical probabilities have been
introduced for these areas as fuels remain receptive in the region.
There remains some forecast uncertainty in expected rainfall
distribution and amounts leading up to Monday, so the highlighted
threat area could change in subsequent outlooks.

...Southern Plains...
Persistent south winds each day are expected across portions of the
Southern Plains next week under a meandering upper ridge across the
southeastern U.S. Well above normal temperatures in the upper 90s to
lower 100s F will maintain a receptive fuelscape where rainfall was
minimized, primarily across southwestern OK and portions of
northwestern TX. However, ensemble guidance probabilities of surface
RH falling below 25% are low, reducing confidence in alignment of
southerly winds of 15-20 mph and suppressing a more significant fire
weather threat.

..Williams.. 09/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...