Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Weak surface front is gradually advancing south across the southern
FL Peninsula early this evening. Scattered convection continues near
the south FL Atlantic coast, as deep westerly flow has shunted
better low-level convergence into this portion of the peninsula. 00z
sounding from MFL exhibited substantial instability, but latest
radar/lightning trends suggest updrafts have weakened considerably.
Primary threat for thunderstorms appears to have shifted offshore,
especially as boundary layer continues to cool over the next few
hours.

00z sounding from OUN exhibited around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with a deep
boundary layer and only modest PW. Scattered weak convection is
mostly concentrated over the Ozark region, and this activity only
has isolated lightning noted with it. Given the weak 850mb flow it
appears the risk for thunderstorms will continue to wane this
evening.

Scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a short-wave trough
approaching northern CA. This feature will deamplify as it ejects
into the northern Great Basin later this evening. Lightning may
accompany the stronger updrafts given the large-scale support.

..Darrow.. 03/01/2026