Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE BLACK
HILLS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm development is possible today,
particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ozark
Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern High
Plains to the Black Hills vicinity.

...Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley...
Radar-mosaic imagery this morning shows a trio of MCVs (e.g.,
western KY, southwest MO, east-central OK) moving east across the
general region.  Ongoing linear clusters of thunderstorms associated
with the MO and KY MCVs cast considerable uncertainty regarding
destabilization across the Ozarks into the lower OH Valley. 
Nonetheless, a residual baroclinic zone aided perhaps by
differential heating along the remnant outflow will favor renewed
storm development later this afternoon.  A seasonably moist airmass
(lower 70s F dewpoints) in proximity to some enhancement of the
background westerly flow, will likely contribute to strong to severe
storms developing by mid to late afternoon through the evening.  A
couple of tornadoes are possible with supercell activity as well as
scattered damaging gusts with the more organized multicells and
related clusters.  

...High Plains...
A seasonably anomalous upper trough over the West will feature a
lead disturbance ejecting northeastward into the northern High
Plains during the Day 1 period.  Pronounced lee troughing is
forecast with a surface low expected to evolve over southeast MT by
late tonight.  Congruent with prior forecast thinking, a corridor of
at least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization is expected
across the High Plains.  Strengthening large-scale ascent and ample
vertical shear downstream of the digging large-scale troughing will
favor organized severe thunderstorm development late this afternoon
through evening.  Supercells and evolving organized clusters will
pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado. 
Farther south, isolated to widely scattered storms will likely
develop/mature and propagate east during the evening.  Hail and wind
are the primary hazards with this activity and this severe risk will
probably linger into the late evening.

...Mid-Atlantic states...
The southern periphery of stronger mid to high-level westerly flow
is forecast across northern Mid-Atlantic region.  The northern rim
of richer low-level moisture (lower 70s F dewpoints) arches from
eastern NC into southeast VA.  The overlap of moderate westerly flow
and weak destabilization will probably support scattered
thunderstorms capable of an isolated risk of strong to locally
severe/damaging gusts (50-60 mph).  

...New England...
An upper shortwave trough over Ontario/Lower Great Lakes this
morning will move east across New England by this evening. 
Considerable cloud cover will limit the overall magnitude of
destabilization, but upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE are forecast
to develop by midday.  Elongated hodographs beneath a 100+ kt 250-mb
speed max will aid in storm organization in the form of possibly a
couple of supercells and organized multicells.  Isolated coverage of
large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks with the
stronger thunderstorms.

..Smith/Jewell.. 06/26/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will
continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday.
This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest
height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To
the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture
advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the
southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected
to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential
for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most
favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that
could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15%
area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS
to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given
the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe
weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into
Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large
reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in
place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are
possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger
scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will
weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result,
predictability is reduced.