Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout/tornado is forecast near the
coast of the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula through
tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes were made to the outlook with this update. For
information on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2346.

..Weinman.. 10/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026/

...Central Florida Peninsula...
Radar mosaic shows a discontinuous cluster of showers/thunderstorms
over the northeast Gulf associated with a weak surface low/frontal
wave along a frontal zone draped across the central part of the FL
Peninsula.  Model guidance continues to show a modest enlargement of
the hodograph through the late afternoon and continuing into
tonight.  Although tropospheric lapse rates will remain poor,
sufficient heating in areas void of thicker clouds/rain will lead to
weak destabilization across the central part of the Peninsula, as
well as over the warm shelf waters west of Tampa Bay (200-500 J/kg
MLCAPE).  Radar observations earlier this morning showed a few
brief/transient supercell structures.  Expecting an episodic
continuation of these convective characteristics to eventually
migrate closer to the immediate coast this afternoon and perhaps
linger into late tonight.  As a result, a brief waterspout/tornado
will be possible near the coast of the west-central portion of the
Peninsula.  

Elsewhere, severe weather is not forecast.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes were made to the Day 2/Wednesday forecast; see the
previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026/

...Synopsis...
On Day 2/Wednesday, an upper-level jet streak will continue
advancing southeast over the northern Plains and Great Lakes
regions. This will be accompanied by a cold front moving across
portions of the Midwest with northwesterly surface winds near 15-20
mph in its wake. However, RHs will fail to drop below 30%, which
only reinforces the already limited fuel receptiveness, precluding a
notable fire weather concern.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin to break down on
Day 3/Thursday as an upper-level trough dives southward through the
weekend. Forecast guidance indicates this system will introduce
increased winds, but also usher in cooler temperatures and
precipitation chances over the parts of the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rockies primarily on Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. Beyond Day
6/Sunday, low predictability in the progression of the upper trough
precludes additional areas of concern; however, gusty northerly
winds behind the trough could induce a fire weather threat across
northern CA where fuels remain dry.

A tropical system is expected to impact the central Gulf Coast later
this week, bringing precipitation chances to portions of the MS
Valley and Mid-South this weekend where ERCs are approaching the
80-90th percentile. Prior to the arrival of deeper Gulf moisture,
dry and locally breezy conditions may overlap pockets of receptive
fuels in the lower MS Valley on Day 4/Friday.

...Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday...
Ahead of the aforementioned trough approaching the Pacific
Northwest, increasing southwesterly flow is likely to support
widespread strong surface winds (sustained near 20 mph) amid
above-normal temperatures and dry afternoon RH near 10-20%.
Additionally, a southward progressing dry cold front and
accompanying wind shift will enhance fire weather concerns. After
several days of dry conditions and above-normal temperatures through
the workweek, fuels will be conditioned for ignition across much of
the central latitudes of the western CONUS as this wind event
approaches. Thus, 40% probabilities of Critical wind/RH conditions
have been introduced over the northwestern Great Basin on Day
4/Friday, and maintained across much of MT/WY.

Guidance has trended towards slightly lower probabilities of
Critical fire weather conditions in western WY on Day 5/Saturday,
resulting in minor adjustments to the existing 40% Critical
probabilities. A cold front is expected to stall across the northern
Great Basin, potentially allowing an area of dry and breezy
conditions to evolve east of the northern Sierra into central NV.
Additional probabilities may be needed as confidence increases in
the overall pattern evolution.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...