WW 127 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO 161900Z - 170200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Arkansas
Far Southern Illinois
Extreme Western Kentucky
Southern Missouri
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are
currently ongoing, with additional development anticipated across
the region this afternoon. Strong buoyancy coupled with moderate
deep-layer vertical shear will support organized storm structures
capable of large to very large hail. Some bowing linear segments,
with an attendant risk for damaging gusts, are possible with time.
The tornado threat is expected to remain low, but still non-zero.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northwest
of Poplar Bluff MO to 40 miles east southeast of Russellville AR.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Mosier
WW 0127 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 127
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
..THORNTON..04/16/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...PAH...SGF...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 127
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-037-045-047-049-055-063-065-
067-071-075-083-087-089-093-101-105-111-115-121-127-129-131-135-
137-141-143-145-147-149-162140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD CROSS
FAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTON
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE
LOGAN MADISON MARION
MISSISSIPPI NEWTON PERRY
POINSETT POPE RANDOLPH
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
ILC003-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-162140-
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 17 00:16:02 UTC 2026.SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW YORK
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New
York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two the primary threats. Very large hail and severe gusts are
possible with the stronger storms over the Ozarks into the
Mid-South.
...20Z Update...
The SLGT in the Ozarks/Mid-South was expanded northward into central
MO, where an isolated supercell with a risk of very large hail and
damaging gusts has emerged along the northern periphery of a remnant
cold pool. Farther south within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127,
several discrete/splitting supercells continue to pose a risk of
very large hail (recent report of 2.75 inches) and locally damaging
wind gusts. With time, this activity may congeal into a loosely
organized cluster, with an increasing risk of damaging wind gusts.
The MRGL risk was also expanded slightly westward into southwest OK,
where boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening. Any isolated
storms that can form here will pose a risk of large to very large
hail and severe downbursts. Finally, the MRGL was expanded slightly
westward in southwest TX toward Fort Stockton. While convective
initiation is still in question here, deepening boundary-layer
cumulus along the higher terrain could result in an isolated storm
or two, with a risk of very large hail.
..Weinman.. 04/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/
...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South...
Recent visible satellite imagery shows some ACCAS across
south-central MO, indicative of low/mid-level warm advection amid
the steep lapse rate environment in place. These steep lapse rates
are forecast to continue spread eastward, while low-level moisture
advection brings low 60s dewpoints northeastward into the region as
well. This will result in a moderate to strongly buoyant airmass
(i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by the early afternoon.
Additionally, moderate mid to high level flow will remain in place,
resulting in long hodographs and overall environmental conditions
that are very favorable for supercells capable of large to very
large hail. Latest guidance continues the earlier trends of
developing storms in this area, which match observational
expectations as well. Large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in
diameter) is possible with any updrafts that mature into supercells.
Low-level flow is weak, keeping tornado probability low but none
zero. Given the modest pocket of mid-level dry air present,
supercells will likely become outflow dominant with time,
supporting the potential for damaging gusts across the region
(particular eastern areas) as well.
...NY/VT/NH southeastward into the central Appalachians...
Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern
Ontario/southern Quebec border vicinity, with modest surface
troughing extending southeastward from this low across central Lower
MI. Airmass across much of NY is characterized by dewpoints in the
low 60s. Dewpoints should stay in the low 60s throughout the day
despite modest mixing amid diurnal heating. This should result in
airmass destabilization ahead of the modest surface trough, with a
general increase in large-scale ascent beginning during the
afternoon as well. Little to no convective inhibition is
anticipated, supporting the potential for more cellular development
over the warm sector initially, before a more expansive convective
line develops along the eastward-progressing surface trough. Ample
mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including a
risk for large hail and a tornado with the more intense discrete
cells. The wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that
evolve over time. An isolated threat for wind damage and perhaps
hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau,
where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards.
...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX...
A strongly buoyant and weakly capped airmass is expected to develop
along the dryline extending southwestward from western OK through
the Edwards Plateau. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is
expected throughout much of the morning into the late afternoon,
some limited ascent (associated with a weak shortwave trough moving
out of northern Mexico) may begin to spread across the dryline by
early evening. This combined with dryline circulations may be enough
to initiate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Low-level
flow will be weak, but moderate to strong westerly flow aloft will
result in wind profiles very favorable for supercells capable of
large to very large hail. Any storms that develop should weaken
quickly with the onset of nocturnal cooling.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday from the upper Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move toward the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley
on Saturday, with a cold front moving quickly east and extending
from western NY/PA into KY/TN by 00Z. A narrow plume of upper 50s F
to near 60 F dewpoints will exist and contribute to up to 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE.
Storms will likely be ongoing early in the day along the front as it
moves out of IN and into western OH/KY, and 40-50 kt southwest winds
at 850 mb may support damaging gusts potential. Heating ahead of the
front from OH/PA southward into WV/KY/TN may support new
development, although lapse rates aloft over southern areas will be
poor. Still, favorable deep-layer mean wind speeds and sufficient
shear may support isolated severe gusts or marginal hail, especially
into OH/western PA. Further, low-level shear will be strongest over
northern areas, with some supercell potential.
..Jewell.. 04/16/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Southern Plains...
Increasing mid-level southwesterly flow moves into the Great Plains
Friday as an upper trough over the Intermountain West moves east. At
the surface, an elongated surface trough and associated trailing
cold front will stretch from the southern High Plains into the Upper
Midwest. Some mid/upper cloud cover will infiltrate the southern
High Plains through tonight. This could lead to reduced boundary
layer decoupling supporting elevated overnight surface winds and
poor RH recoveries (perhaps staying below 30%) leading into Friday
morning, particularly across eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles,
southeastern CO and western KS. These preconditioned fuels, already
quite receptive to fire spread, combined with southwest winds of
20-25 mph with gusts close to 40 mph and RH in the single digits by
peak afternoon heating, will support Critical fire weather
conditions for much of the southern High Plains Friday. A strong
cold front will quickly push southward late in the day from a
quasi-stationary position in southeastern CO and southern KS into
the Southern Plains through Friday night. Fire weather concerns
should be limited to the initial frontal passage and its potential
impact to ongoing fires, with increasing cloud cover, higher
relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front generally
promoting an improved fire weather environment through Friday night.
Only minor changes were made to the existing Critical and Elevated
highlights across this region based on latest model guidance.
...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
Westerly flow aloft in the wake of a departing short wave trough is
expected to linger across the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region
Friday. Weak surface troughing in the lee of the Appalachians will
support downslope drying and westerly winds of around 10 mph.
Although strong winds are not expected, well above normal
temperatures, persistently dry conditions and expanding drought have
led to exceptionally dry fuels across the region. Relative humidity
of around 25-30% is expected in downslope favored areas in the lee
of the Appalachians. A slight eastward expansion of Elevated
highlights was made into the coastal plains of VA and NC.
..Williams.. 04/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
Plains. A deepening surface low and a strong cold front will promote
critical fire weather conditions over the southern Plains. A second
shortwave impulse will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal
temperatures and some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the
central Appalachians and Carolinas.
...TX/NM...
As the primary shortwave trough over the Great Basin begins to eject
eastward, strong flow aloft will overspread the southern High
Plains. The surface low in eastern CO is forecast to deepen as it
lifts northeastward, dragging the front southward. Gusty southwest
surface winds, bolstered by westerly flow aloft, will develop across
eastern NM, into the TX/OK Panhandles by mid morning. Gusts of 30-40
mph are possible. Warm temperatures west of the dryline will support
RH minimums below 15%. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions
are likely within dry fuels.
Farther north, gusty post-frontal winds are possible over parts of
southwestern KS and the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly
through the day as temperatures cool. Brief elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry. The front
will continue to move south into TX/OK/NM Friday afternoon and into
the evening. This will likely result in a rapid wind shift which
could locally exacerbate burning conditions briefly. Adjustments to
the northern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas could also be
necessary as uncertainty on frontal timing is reduced in subsequent
updates.
...Central Appalachians...
In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, flow aloft is
forecast to weaken over much of the Appalachians. Still, residual
westerly flow may encourage lee troughing, helping to bolster
downslope winds to near 10 mph. With very warm/dry surface
conditions expected with subsequent mid-level ridging, low afternoon
RH is expected. This, in combination with no recent rainfall and
critical fuels, should support a few hours of elevated fire-weather
conditions from VA, into the western Carolinas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust upper-level trough will move into the Great Lakes over the
weekend while a cold front sweeps into the Mid Atlantic by early
next week. Enhanced southwest winds ahead of the cold front should
maintain a fire weather concern for the Southeast and Mid Atlantic
on Day 3/Saturday where fuels remain very dry. Stronger northwest
winds and a dry air mass in the wake of the upper trough should
bring an enhanced fire weather threat across portions of the central
High Plains on Saturday, where little to no precipitation is
expected. Dry return flow on the western periphery of broad surface
high pressure across the eastern U.S. will bring fire weather
concerns to portions of the southern and central Plains on Day
4/Sunday. Persistent northwest flow should bring dry and breezy
conditions into early next week across portions of the Mid Atlantic
and Southeast.
...Day 3/Saturday...
...Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Dry, post-frontal northwesterly flow will pose a fire weather
concern for portions of NE, eastern CO and KS on Day 3/Saturday,
where a lack of precipitation maintains receptive fuels prompting
the addition of 40% critical probabilities. Farther east, increasing
southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled with the
lack of Gulf moisture return and resultant low RH should bring a
fire weather threat across much of the Piedmont into the Mid
Atlantic. Lack of recent and expected rainfall continues to
exacerbate fuel conditions across this region.
...Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday...
...Southern Plains...
Lee surface troughing across the central/northern High Plains as
high pressure settles into eastern TX will support a broad southerly
return flow across portions of the southern High Plains Sunday. The
enhanced south/southwest winds of 15-25 mph, low RH amid a
well-mixed boundary layer and continued receptive fuelscape supports
a higher likelihood of critical fire weather conditions across
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest KS. 70% critical
probabilities were introduced within the broader 40% area
encompassing much of the southern High Plains.
...Southeast...
A fire weather threat should persist in the absence of meaningful
precipitation over the weekend. Dry post-frontal north/northwest
flow amid exceptionally dry fuels and drought necessitated
introduction of 40% critical probabilities from central GA into the
Piedmont region of the Carolinas. Thunderstorms along the cold front
over the weekend could produce a few ignitions across the
Appalachian region over the weekend. However, wetting rains are more
probable given lack of dry sub-cloud layer supportive of evaporative
effects and overall higher atmospheric water content. The deep layer
northwest (offshore) flow aloft will support continued dry and
breezy conditions across the Southeast Day 5/Monday, where two
targeted 40% critical probabilities were added.
...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday...
Dry and breezy conditions ahead the next upper trough could reemerge
across the Southwest and Southern Plains as midweek approaches.
However, forecast uncertainty in timing and progression through the
West limits predictability of fire weather impacts across the region
for the middle of next week, precluding introduction of critical
probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 04/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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