Mesoscale Discussion 0956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...central North Dakota into north-central South
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 021659Z - 021830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of marginally severe hail and strong to
severe wind will be possible with storms along the cold front
through early afternoon. Additional stronger storms are expected
later in the afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity near the front in central North
Dakota/far northern South Dakota has shown occasional strengthening
MESH cores with marginally severe hail (with up to penny size hail
reported). For now, MLCIN remains in place across much of the
Dakotas but it is steadily beginning to erode to the north with
daytime heating and warming surface temperatures. Deep layer shear
around 30-40 kts may support a few instances of small to severe hail
and strong to severe wind may evolve before a more pronounced severe
threat develops into the afternoon.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   49070166 46650298 45790330 45520261 45620139 45970059
            46809977 47709925 48659916 49140043 49070166 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, with a cold
front extending southward from this low across western ND and into
northwest SD before becoming oriented more southwestward through
northeast WY into south-central WY. Warm-air advection showers and
thunderstorms are already ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary
across ND. General expectation is for these showers to continue
while remaining predominantly subsevere. By this afternoon,
additional development is anticipated along the slow-moving front
from central ND into western SD and far eastern WY. 

Environment preceding the front will be moist and unstable, with
upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg.
Boundary-parallel shear suggest the potential for both an anafrontal
character and quickly linear mode across much of ND. Even so, some
severe is possible, with large hail (isolated very large) and
damaging gusts as the primary risks. The shear orientation becomes a
bit less parallel to the boundary with southern extent, and there is
some potential for initial supercell structures from south-central
ND through western SD and into far eastern WY. Some low-level
southeasterly flow is expected near the surface low (which is
expected to redevelop southward), resulting in low-level hodographs
that indicate some tornado risk. This risk could be countered by
high LCLs and the likely quick transition to more linear structures.
Some undercutting or movement north of the outflow-augmented cold
front is likely with time, and the potential for development of a
strong to severe evening/overnight MCS appears limited.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the
central and southern High Plains today amid moist low-level
easterlies/southeasterlies and modest southwesterlies aloft. There
is some indication one or two vorticity maxima may move into the
region along the northwestern periphery of the southern Plains
ridging. Shear is weak and a generally disorganized,
outflow-dominant storm structure is expected but some isolated hail
and/or damaging gusts are possible sporadically with the strongest
storms.

...Southeast into Central TX...
Surface analysis places an outflow boundary associated with
convective clusters over OK arcing from northwest TX south of the
Metroplex and into northeast TX. A hot and humid air mass over
central/southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Southeast AL/southern GA into much of FL...
A deepening upper trough and associated large-scale ascent will
augment mesoscale factors (including surface moisture convergence
and sea-breeze boundaries) to support numerous thunderstorms across
the region. Strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could
support occasional storm organization and robust updrafts capable of
producing damaging downbursts. Interactions between ongoing storms
and mesoscale boundaries could also augment updrafts, with the
resultant water loading also producing occasionally strong gusts.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/02/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 021700Z - 031200Z

No changes were made to the areal extent of the existing Isolated
Dry Thunder highlight. Precipitable water amounts near 1/2 inch
across the drawn area amid a relatively dry near-surface atmospheric
layer and established drought. As was previously mentioned, a mix of
dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible as the moisture gradient
increases from the north/west to south/east. However, with a slight
trend toward warming, drying, and increased surface wind expected
later this week over the region, the potential for hold over
ignitions will exist.

..Stearns.. 06/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026/

...Synopsis...
Weak and diffuse upper-level troughing will be over the Southwest,
with moisture aloft increasing along/east of the Divide in New
Mexico and along portions of the Arizona/New Mexico and New
Mexico-Colorado borders. PWAT values will increase to 0.4-0.6"
across western New Mexico and into far eastern Arizona and southern
Colorado, but surface dewpoints are likely to remain below 40F and
mostly 20-30F. Deep, well-mixed inverted-V soundings are expected
with high cloud bases of 10,000-13,000 feet AGL, with minimum RH of
10-20%. Weaker steering flow (5-15 knots) and deep, dry sub-cloud
layers may create a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, and storms will be
wetter farther east as coverage and moisture increases. Overall,
forcing for ascent aloft and enough buoyancy should produce isolated
mostly dry thunderstorms over dry fuels (ERCs 80-95th percentile) in
western New Mexico/vicinity.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...