WW 211 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 162210Z - 170600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
510 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Western Iowa
Northern into Northeast Kansas
Far Northwest Missouri
Central into Eastern Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 510
PM until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered supercells capable of a risk for large to very
large hail are expected through early evening. A tornado is also
possible towards early evening near a west to east oriented boundary
draped in southern Nebraska. A clustering of storms is expected
eventually later this evening and an eastward-moving linear cluster
capable of severe gusts will likely evolve.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest
of Kearney NE to 50 miles south southeast of Omaha NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 208...WW 209...WW 210...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27015.
...Smith
WW 210 TORNADO IA MO 162140Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern into Southwest Iowa
Northern Missouri
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are forecast to continue to develop
and intensify through the late afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail will be possible with the supercells. The more intense
supercells will also be capable of a tornado risk through the mid to
late evening before a gradual congealing of storms and clustering
gradually lessens the overall severe risk. The threat for severe
gusts may increase as storms grow upscale into one or more clusters
later this evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of Lamoni IA to 30
miles east southeast of Chillicothe MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 208...WW 209...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 27015.
...Smith
WW 209 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 162105Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Colorado
Northwest Kansas
Southwest Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across
northeast Colorado this afternoon, with additional isolated storms
farther east into southwest Nebraska. The Colorado storms will
likely develop into a well-organized convective line by this
evening, tracking east-northeastward during the evening and
overnight. Large to very large hail is possible initially, with a
transition to damaging gusts once the convective line develops.
Significant severe gusts over 75 mph are possible. There is also a
low-probability tornado risk with any more discrete storms along the
southern periphery of any convective line.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles northeast of
Sidney NE to 35 miles south of Burlington CO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 208...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Mosier
WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 211
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
..JEWELL..05/17/26
ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 211
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC155-170140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
POTTAWATTAMIE
KSC005-013-027-029-043-085-089-117-123-131-141-147-149-157-161-
163-183-201-170140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD DONIPHAN JACKSON
JEWELL MARSHALL MITCHELL
NEMAHA OSBORNE PHILLIPS
POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY
ROOKS SMITH WASHINGTON
MOC003-005-087-170140-
WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W SDA TO
30 NW LWD TO 25 SSE OXV.
..SQUITIERI..05/17/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 210
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-053-071-145-159-173-185-170140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DECATUR FREMONT
PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR
WAYNE
MOC001-025-061-063-075-079-081-115-117-121-129-147-171-197-211-
227-170140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CALDWELL DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY
HARRISON LINN LIVINGSTON
MACON MERCER NODAWAY
PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE LAA
TO 10 ESE ITR TO 40 WSW IML TO 30 ESE SNY TO 15 E AIA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
..JEWELL..05/17/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-095-115-125-170140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK YUMA
KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-170140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE
NEC005-029-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-117-135-
145-171-170140-
WW 0208 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 208
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE PAH
TO 45 ENE MVN TO 15 N HUF.
..SQUITIERI..05/16/26
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 208
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC033-047-101-185-193-170040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD EDWARDS LAWRENCE
WABASH WHITE
INC005-013-019-025-027-029-031-037-043-051-055-061-071-077-079-
083-093-101-105-115-117-123-125-129-137-143-147-153-155-163-173-
175-170040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK
CRAWFORD DAVIESS DEARBORN
DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD
GIBSON GREENE HARRISON
JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS
KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN
MONROE OHIO ORANGE
PERRY PIKE POSEY
RIPLEY SCOTT SPENCER
MD 0741 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...211... FOR NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0741
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0701 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Areas affected...northwest into north-central Kansas...southwest
into south-central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...211...
Valid 170001Z - 170200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209, 211
continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of significant damaging winds appears to be
developing across northwest Kansas. Gusts over 75-80 mph may occur
across much of northern Kansas into southern Nebraska this evening.
Wind-driven hail is possible as well.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells producing large hail
currently extends from southwest NE across central NE and into IA
near the stationary front, with most of this activity moving very
slowly. Large hail and very heavy rain remains likely with this
activity.
To the southwest, storms moving out of eastern CO and into northwest
KS have recently shown signs of increased outflow, with radar
indications of 60-70 kt inbound to KGLD radar. Additional supercells
have formed near Goodland KS just ahead of the developing bow as
well, resulting in a chaotic mixture of storm modes.
Given the steep lapse rate environment, backed/easterly low-level
winds to maximize storm-relative inflow, and increasing low-level
jet this evening, a damaging MCS/bow echo is anticipated to develop
out of the northwest KS activity. This potential system will move
across northern KS and southern NE, with widespread severe winds
likely. Significant gusts over 75 mph will be possible, with
isolated stronger gusts.
..Jewell.. 05/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 40190187 40520142 41009878 40989798 40659743 39539752
39259804 39099935 38980204 39740201 40190187
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a couple tornadoes remain
possible tonight, especially across southern Nebraska and northern
Kansas.
...01z Update - Central Plains/Missouri Valley...
Primary scenario this evening will be an upscale-growing/organizing
cluster of storms across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. A
bit more spatial room has been given (southward adjusted) across
northern Kansas (mostly north of I-70) for what may still be a
post-01z increasing damaging wind potential, including
significant-caliber wind gusts across northern Kansas and far
southern Nebraska, aside from a lingering broad regional potential
for some large hail as well. Measured 85 mph gusts have recently
been reported near Colby, Kansas.
..Guyer.. 05/17/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern is expected to persist
across the central CONUS through mid-next-week. Early in the week, a
highly amplified trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin,
yielding a robust, fast-moving mid-level jet max over the
southern/central Rockies and High Plains. Meanwhile, a strengthening
surface low over the Central Plains will tighten pressure gradients,
resulting in widespread strong winds overlapping a dry boundary
layer over the Southwest and southern High Plains. By mid-to-late
week, the primary mid-level trough will eject northeastward into the
Plains, driving a cold front with precipitation through the central
US.
...Southern Plains/Southwest...
As the core of the strong mid-level jet emerges over the southern
Rockies on Day 3/Monday, intense deep-layer mixing will occur
beneath the trough on Monday amid above normal surface temperatures.
Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 25-30 mph are anticipated
across eastern NM, West TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and adjoining
areas. Clear skies and strong downslope warming will drop afternoon
relative humidity (RH) values into the single digits and possibly
below 5% in some areas. Thus, solidly Critical fire weather
conditions are expected with some potential for Extremely Critical
conditions given the preceding lightning activity and the continuing
multi-day threat.
On Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday, lingering moderately strong
mid-level flow overhead as the trough begins to lift northeast will
contribute to additional chances, albeit less certain, for critical
wind/RH over portions of the Southwest.
..Stearns.. 05/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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