Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today.

...Central Florida Peninsula...
Showers/some thunderstorms are common early today near the residual
front from the northern Gulf to the north-central Florida Peninsula.
A weak surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop over the
northeast Gulf today, with some guidance advertising an increase in
low/mid-tropospheric flow late today into tonight, as early day wind
profiles are otherwise weak (reference 12z observed sounding from
Tampa Bay). The more shear-optimistic guidance scenarios, via
strengthening/veering flow with height, suggest wind profiles could
trend conducive to weak/transient supercells. That said,
destabilization across the Peninsula near the front is questionable
with the expected persistence of marginal, thin CAPE profiles and
poor (5-5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. A few storms may exhibit
brief/transient low-level rotation offshore, but the threat for
persistent, rotating updrafts reaching near-shore/inland areas later
today into tonight currently appears low.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/06/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 061700Z - 071200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The ongoing forecast remains on track with no changes; please see
the previous discussion for details.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026/

...Synopsis...
A jet streak advancing into the Dakotas will introduce dry, breezy
post-frontal conditions from the lee of the northern Rockies through
the western and central Dakotas. Winds will generally remain light
across the broader region, but areas immediately behind the front in
the Dakotas may experience sustained winds near 15-20 mph alongside
higher gusts. Fuels remain minimally receptive, which will prevent a
more significant fire weather threat. However, locally elevated
conditions will remain possible in areas of isolated dry vegetation.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...