Mesoscale Discussion 2280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...far southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico into
the Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102241Z - 110045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of severe wind and marginally severe
hail will be possible through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed in the upslope regime
across northeastern New Mexico this evening and across portions of
the Texas Panhandle near the Cap Rock. Additional development will
continue into the early evening across these regions.

Across northeastern New Mexico into southern Colorado, large
temperature-dew point spreads (with temperatures in the low to mid
80s and dew points in the mid 50s) and steep low to mid-level lapse
rate profiles will support isolated severe wind potential with
stronger cores. Additionally, deep layer shear around 25-30 kts may
support a few isolated instances of small to marginally severe hail.


Across the Texas Panhandle, moderate instability is in place amid
temperatures in the 80s to 90s amid mid 50s to 60s dew points.
Deeply mixed profiles with steep lapse rates throughout will support
potential for downbursts locally severe wind with stronger cores. A
recent gust to 67 mph was measured in Carson County. Weak shear
profiles will likely limit any hail potential.

..Thornton/Smith.. 09/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35900233 36410283 37090342 37520402 37730464 37570534
            36960563 35610504 34670405 33630218 33760116 34720106
            35480137 35900233 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0240 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern
Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon and
evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions
of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps
portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon and
evening.

...Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast...
Recent surface analysis places the primary cold front from the St.
Lawrence Valley west-southwestward through Lower MI, northern IL,
and southern IA. The front then shifts more southwestward through
central KS through the central OK and northwest TX Panhandles into
far northeast NM. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms extends
from southwest KS and the eastern TX/OK Panhandles through the Lower
MO Valley and into the middle OH Valley. Much of this activity
precedes the cold front and is supported by either modest low-level
warm-air advection and/or convergence along
southward/southeastward-progressing outflows. 

Strong heating is anticipated south of residual cloudiness and
lingering showers/thunderstorms, with temperatures well into the 90s
to around 100 F over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley,
and upper 80s to mid 90s from the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic. This
heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield
a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from
1000 J/kg across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity to 2000-2500 J/kg across
the southern Plains. This increased buoyancy coupled with
convergence along the synoptic front (and any existing outflow
boundaries) and modest large-scale ascent should result in
thunderstorm activity persisting throughout the afternoon and
evening. Some increase in intensity is possible too, particularly
from north-central TX in the Mid-South vicinity where buoyancy will
be highest. The presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary
layer will be supportive of sporadic damaging winds with isolated
severe gusts in these areas. Buoyancy will be more limited farther
east, but vertical shear will be stronger, and some more organized
bowing segments are possible. Damaging gusts will be the primary
severe risk over this region as well.

...Raton Mesa Vicinity...
Upslope flow of a moist boundary layer beneath mid-level lapse rates
of 7-8 C/km will yield moderate afternoon instability with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development is anticipated by mid afternoon along the high terrain
amidst a vertically veering wind profile with up to 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible in this
environment, with isolated hail as the primary hazard. Increasing
low-level stability away from the terrain should keep the threat
relatively confined and short lived.

..15_ows.. 09/10/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will enter the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Rockies this weekend with an accompanying 60-70 kt jet over the
Great Basin. This pattern may provide broader precipitation chances
and much cooler temperatures to the northwestern CONUS, thus
subduing fire weather concerns; however, strong southwesterly winds
amid critically low RH values may support a broader fire weather
threat in the Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday. As troughing departs
into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region early next week, a
very dry airmass and near normal temperatures will reside over the
western CONUS. Simultaneously, ridging is forecast to build across
the Southeast favoring drier conditions and above normal
temperatures.

...Day 3/Saturday...
A robust upper low will impinge upon the northwestern U.S. on Day
3/Saturday, amplifying west-southwesterly flow over northern CA and
the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance depicts expansive 60-80%
probabilities of wind speeds exceeding 25 mph amid critically low RH
in northeastern CA, northern NV, southeastern OR, and southern ID.
Despite modest ERCs, drought-stressed fuels could support new
ignitions given the severity of meteorological conditions. As a
result, 40% Critical probabilities were maintained across the
region. Farther west, gusty west/southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph
and RH values of 15-25% are expected in the Sacramento Valley.
Marginal fuels preclude Critical probabilities at this time;
however, new ignitions cannot be ruled out within localized dry
fuels.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...