URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
550 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northwest Minnesota
  Southeast North Dakota

* Effective this Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning from 550 PM
  until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this
evening in vicinity of a cold front moving across the area.  A few
severe storms are expected, capable of hail and damaging wind gusts.
 An isolated tornado is possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south southwest
of Detroit Lakes MN to 80 miles northeast of Thief River Falls MN.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.

...Hart

STATUS REPORT ON WW 537

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW FAR
TO 5 WNW ROX.

..KERR..08/04/26

ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 537 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MNC005-007-021-027-029-051-057-061-071-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-040140-

MN 
.    MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BECKER               BELTRAMI            CASS                
CLAY                 CLEARWATER          GRANT               
HUBBARD              ITASCA              KOOCHICHING         
LAKE OF THE WOODS    MAHNOMEN            MARSHALL            
NORMAN               OTTER TAIL          PENNINGTON          
POLK                 RED LAKE            ROSEAU              
WADENA               WILKIN              


NDC017-077-040140-

ND 
.    NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CASS                 RICHLAND            


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight
across parts of the eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota, as well
as across portions of southern Arizona.

...20Z Update...
The MRGL Risk in the Northeast was trimmed behind an eastward-moving
band of frontal convection. This activity will continue to pose a
risk of damaging wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado this
afternoon, before moving into an increasingly stable air mass
sampled by the CAR 18Z sounding and/or moving off the southern New
England Coast. 

Farther west, the latest surface analysis depicts a surface low at
the intersection of a cold front and lee trough in far northeast CO.
Current thinking is that high-based thunderstorms will develop in
the vicinity of this feature and spread east/northeastward into a
deeply mixed boundary layer in southwestern NE this evening -- where
a robust warm layer is present at the base of the EML (per LBF 18Z
sounding). There is some potential that this environment supports a
localized corridor of enhanced severe wind gusts (some upwards of 75
mph). However, the aforementioned capping and spatially limited
corridor casts uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding an
upgrade at this time.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track and no changes were made
with this update.

..Weinman.. 08/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026/

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Post-frontal thunderstorms occurring this morning across ND have
remained mostly sub-severe over the past couple of hours. A stout
low-level inversion noted on the observed 12Z INL sounding will
likely inhibit surface-based thunderstorms from developing until
late this afternoon or early evening across the eastern Dakotas into
northern MN. Still, gradual airmass destabilization is anticipated
across this region along/ahead of a cold front through the
afternoon. Large-scale ascent attendant to an ejecting mid-level
shortwave trough from MT into ND will eventually aid scattered
convective development along/near the front, most likely by 22-01Z.
Moderate instability coupled with strong deep-layer shear will
support some threat for supercells and large hail initially, before
upscale growth into clusters supports an increasing severe/damaging
wind threat with eastward extent into northern MN this evening. A
tornado or two may also occur as low-level shear gradually increases
in a narrow corridor ahead of the front this evening.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is forecast
with southward extent into the central High Plains. A hot and very
well-mixed low-level airmass ahead of the front/surface trough
across this area may support occasional severe gusts with convective
outflow. But, weaker mid-level winds and related modest deep-layer
shear should result in only loosely organized clusters/cells. This
activity should weaken with the loss of daytime heating.

...Southwest...
Around 15-25 kt of east-northeasterly mid-level winds will persist
today across far southern AZ/NM, to the south of prominent upper
ridging that will remain anchored over the Southwest. Recent visible
satellite imagery shows mostly clear conditions across southeast AZ,
with latest surface observations showing ample low-level moisture
present (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s across
lower elevations). Ample heating of this moist airmass will support
moderate instability by mid afternoon. Current expectations are for
thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of
southeast AZ as convective temperatures are reached, and
subsequently spread west-southwestward into the lower deserts
through the evening. Some organization/clustering appears possible
with this activity, and the Slight Risk for severe wind gusts up to
60-75 mph has been maintained with no changes. Isolated hail may
also occur with the strongest cores that develop initially.

...Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic...
An upper trough with enhanced mid-level south-southwesterly flow
will advance eastward across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic
today. A weak surface low should develop northward into southern
Quebec, with a trailing cold front advancing eastward across the
Northeast this afternoon/evening. Filtered daytime heating of a
seasonably very moist airmass (reference 12Z observed soundings from
OKX/ALB/GYX) will support modest MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg, even though
mid-level lapse rates remain quite poor. Thunderstorms developing
along and ahead of the cold front may pose an isolated threat for
damaging winds given the enhanced flow present at low/mid levels. A
brief tornado or two could also occur across parts of New England
where effective SRH may be locally greater in tandem with a
southerly low-level jet. Still, the overall poor thermodynamic
environment should limit a greater severe wind threat from
developing this afternoon.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

An upper-level ridge will build over the West as upper-level
troughing exits the northern Rockies/Plains Day 3/Wednesday - Day
4/Thursday. Upper-level troughing will approach the Pacific
Northwest beginning on Day 4/Thursday and begin to shift and
eventually flatten the ridge over the northwestern US late in the
week and this weekend. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the
magnitude and duration of the flattening/break down of the
upper-level ridge over the northwestern US this weekend and early
next week. 

Breezy west-northwest winds amid critical RH are likely to continue
on Day 3/Wednesday across portions of southeast Idaho through
southwest Wyoming and into Colorado west of the Divide. Locally
elevated conditions are likely, especially if stronger flow aloft
remains over these areas on the periphery of the upper-level trough
moving over the north-central CONUS. Locally elevated conditions are
also possible as hot, dry, unstable, and locally breezy winds are
expected again along/near a thermal trough across portions of
northern California and western Oregon. 

With the expected flattening and potential break down of the
upper-level ridge over the northwestern US, dry/windy conditions are
likely to return to the region. As westerly winds strengthen amid a
dry airmass, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely
to develop across portions of the Inland Northwest extending
southward to the Sierra Front and across portions of the northern
Great Basin and northern Rockies onto the northern High Plains.
Forecast guidance indicates Day 5/Friday as the most likely day for
these conditions to occur, which is why a 40% area was introduced.
However, these conditions could continue and spread/shift farther to
the south/east on Day 6/Saturday. The aforementioned forecast
uncertainty with the timing/magnitude of the ridge break down
precludes expanding or including additional probabilities at this
time. 

Monsoonal moisture will remain mostly confined to southern Arizona
into portions of New Mexico through mid-week. Moisture will likely
begin to spread northward into portions of northern Arizona and
eventually into the Great Basin late in the week and over the
weekend. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over
portions of southern Nevada/Utah beginning as early as Day
4/Thursday, with chances increasing into the weekend as moisture is
forecast to continue moving northward. While thunderstorms are
likely to return to portions of the Great Basin late this week and
this weekend, there is too much forecast uncertainty regarding the
overlap of drier storms and receptive fuels to introduce dry
thunderstorm probabilities at this time.

..Nauslar.. 08/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...