No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 25 17:02:02 UTC 2026.MD 2125 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern Florida into the lower
Savannah River Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251614Z - 251845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts appear possible with the most
intense storms this afternoon. A watch is unlikely due to the
limited areal extent of the threat.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows thunderstorms gradually
increasing in coverage across portions of the northern FL Peninsula
and south-central GA, to the south of a quasi-stationary front
draped across the region. Modification of the 12Z Jacksonville, FL,
sounding for current surface conditions yields a strongly unstable
air mass with MLCAPE of around 3000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear
will remain weak across the region, the degree of instability will
support intense updrafts and subsequent, water-loaded downdrafts
capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon.
..Mead/Smith.. 08/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30028196 30028304 30668342 32248183 32788100 32458033
31288116 30568138 30228138 30028196
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the
central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also
possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Severe
wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.
...Central/Southern Plains...
Between upper ridging centered over the Southwest and a shortwave
trough over south-central Canada, the large-scale pattern across the
central/southern Plains will undergo modest amplification, with a
resultant increase in northwesterly flow aloft by late today into
tonight. A surface cold front will also move southeastward across
the central High Plains. Ongoing convection notwithstanding, this
front will intercept a moist and unstable airmass into parts of
western/central NE, which will likely aid additional thunderstorm
development by mid to late afternoon. An orographically influenced
increase in thunderstorms is also expected along the Raton
Mesa/Front Range regions.
With gradually strengthening northwesterlies aloft through the
afternoon, effective bulk shear across NE and western KS will
generally reach 30-40 kt. This region will exist on the eastern
periphery of a stout EML, which should support some initial
supercells capable of large hail, most probable across
western/southern NE into northern/western KS. Influenced by the
front and aggregating outflow, one or more southeastward-moving
clusters capable of producing severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and wind
damage should evolve this evening across southern NE into KS.
Farther south, a similar upscale-growing trend will probably also
occur with high-based thunderstorms developing off the Raton Mesa
vicinity into the OK/TX Panhandles, and perhaps eventually western
OK. Even though mid-level winds and deep-layer shear will remain
more modest with southward extent into these areas, a favorable
thermodynamic environment with rather steep low/mid-level lapse
rates should support isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds
spreading east-southeastward through the evening with this
convection.
...Eastern Minnesota/Western Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan...
A mid-level shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level westerly
jet) will dig southeastward from southern Manitoba toward northern
MN and Lake Superior through the period. Ongoing morning convection
and cloud cover may curb destabilization to some extent, and keep
the surface warm sector relatively narrow this afternoon. Even so,
strong to severe thunderstorm development should still occur near an
eastward-advancing cold front by mid/late afternoon. Diurnal heating
of a moist low-level airmass (generally 60s surface dewpoints) will
contribute to a narrow zone of around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across
the eastern half of MN/far northwest WI ahead of the front by late
afternoon. Some supercells will be possible initially, aside from
more prevalent multicells/clusters. Large hail and damaging winds
are expected to be the primary hazards as convection tracks eastward
through the evening, before weakening commences with the onset of
nocturnal cooling.
...Southeast...
While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are expected to
remain weak, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will exist
along/south of a stalled front across the Southeast today. As
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon,
isolated pulse-type thunderstorms capable of producing water-loaded
downdrafts and occasional wind damage may occur. This currently
appears most probable across parts of coastal SC into southern GA
and northern FL, although some gusty thunderstorm winds may also
occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast, such as southern LA.
..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/25/2026
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the
central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also
possible across portions of the Upper Midwest. Severe wind gusts
and large hail are the primary hazards.
...Central/Southern Plains...
A prominent mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over NM with
a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge. A lead vorticity
max associated with morning showers/thunderstorms over western KS
will continue slowly east-southeastward while an upstream
disturbance over central CO moves into the central High Plains by
late afternoon. In the low levels, a cold front extending
southwestward from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains
will undergo frontolysis across the central High Plains. Farther
south, a stationary boundary sagging southward to near I-40 in the
TX Panhandle will extend east-northeast into north-central OK.
North of the TX-OK boundary, a moisture plume with slightly richer
low-level moisture analyzed this morning protrudes westward from
north-central OK into the High Plains.
Weak ascent associated with the disturbance moving into the High
Plains later this afternoon combined with very strong heating will
favor isolated to widely scattered initial storm development over
the High Plains, particularly near the Raton Mesa where upslope flow
is expected. Models generally show moderate buoyancy developing by
mid afternoon with the stronger mid to high-level flow across
western NE and decreasing with south extent. Supercells will be
favored initially over parts of western NE with an attendant hail
risk and with some clustering possible during the evening
(severe-wind hazard). Farther south, have upgraded to 30-percent
wind probabilities due primarily to increased confidence in a
focused severe-wind threat forecast across the TX Panhandle late
this afternoon through the evening. There is seemingly large model
agreement/notable consistency in 00z and 12z AI and CAM ensembles,
and time-lagged CAM explicit wind guidance and depictions of a
linear mode within a very well mixed boundary layer which will be
favorable for severe gusts (60-85 mph).
...Eastern Minnesota/Western Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan...
A mid-level shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level westerly
jet) will dig southeastward from southern Manitoba toward northern
MN and Lake Superior through the period. An adequately moist and
destabilizing airmass will develop immediately ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front by mid/late afternoon. Models show a
narrow zone of around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across the eastern half
of MN/far northwest WI ahead of the front by late afternoon. Some
supercells will be possible initially, aside from more prevalent
multicells/clusters. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to
be the primary hazards before storms gradually weaken during the
evening.
...Southeast...
While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are expected to
remain weak, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will exist
along/south of a stalled front across the Southeast today. As
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon,
isolated pulse-type thunderstorms capable of producing water-loaded
downdrafts and perhaps localized wind damage via 50-60 mph gusts.
See MCD #2125 for short-term details regarding a potential isolated
wind damage threat developing early this afternoon.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 08/25/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE MIDWEST...AND THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts
of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley, and parts of the Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley.
Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions,
though large hail is also possible, particularly across the High
Plains.
...Mid-MS Valley to Lower MI/northwest OH...
An upper trough will modestly deepen as it pivots across the region
on Wednesday. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the
area as a surface low and trailing cold front move east/southeast
through early Thursday. A plume of mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are
forecast ahead of the surface front across MO/IL/IN and into lower
MI/northwest OH. This will support moderate destabilization through
evening. Sufficient vertical shear for organized cells is expected,
with forecast soundings indicating 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes
and elongated/straight hodographs. Widely scattered convection will
pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Low-level hodographs are
somewhat small in forecast soundings, a tornado or two will be
possible (mainly across IN into southern Lower MI) where 0-1 km SRH
will be maximized near the surface front where low-level winds are
forecast to be more southerly.
...Ozarks/Lower MS Valley...
An MCV from prior day convection is forecast to be located near
northeast OK Wednesday morning. Downstream from this feature, a very
moist (70s dewpoints) and strongly unstable airmass will be in
place. Deep-layer west/westerly flow will remain modest, but some
local enhancement to shear aided by the MCV is possible. Scattered
convection will develop by early/mid afternoon. Given large
instability, high PW and potential for forward propagation via storm
mergers/outflow interactions and sufficient storm coverage, wind
damage will be possible, and an upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5)
risk has been included with the Day 2 update.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Modest deep-layer northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the
region on Wednesday. Low-level upslope flow within modest low-level
moisture and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will support scattered convection
developing near higher terrain during the afternoon. Effective shear
magnitudes around 20-30 kt will be sufficient for at least transient
organized updrafts. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated hodographs
above 3 km will support large hail, with some potential for 2+ inch
stones within sustained updrafts across eastern WY/CO where shear
will be strongest. Otherwise, steep lapse rates will support strong
outflow winds.
..Leitman.. 08/25/2026
|
