Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder tonight into
early Friday.

...01z Update...

Severe probabilities have been removed from northwest OK/southwest
KS. Instability has largely diminished with loss of daytime heating
and in the wake of a surface cold front. Ahead of the front,
instability will continue to diminish, along with deep-layer flow,
while nocturnal cooling promotes increasing low-level inhibition.
This should largely preclude severe thunderstorm potential the
remainder of the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 10/02/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

An upper trough will develop eastward across the Northeast today,
bringing some modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow across
the region ahead of a surface cold front. Showers and thunderstorms
are likely to be ongoing along the length of the front this morning
from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-South. Low-level warm advection
ahead of the eastward advancing font and band of convection will
result in persistent cloudiness across the warm sector.
Additionally, midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain poor. As a
result, instability is expected to remain modest (500-750 MLCAPE)
despite 60s F dewpoints. Deep-layer flow will largely remain
parallel to the surface boundary, and stronger flow will lift
northeast with time. If pockets of stronger heating can occur, a few
strong wind gusts are possible during the afternoon from northern VA
into southern New England. However, overall severe potential appears
limited.

..Leitman/Halbert.. 10/02/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, a broad upper trough will develop into Ontario, with a
leading speed max moving from the northern Plains across the Great
Lakes. Meanwhile, an upper high will be centered over the Great
Basin, with relatively high midlevel heights extending into the
Southeast.

At the surface, a high pressure center will move from MI into the
Northeast, with the surface ridge extending southwestward into the
southern High Plains. Northeasterly surface winds will thus relegate
the more robust moisture/dewpoints to the Gulf Coast states.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the day over the Upper
Midwest in association with the shortwave trough, as temperatures
aloft cool. Moisture and instability will be minimal, but weak
elevated instability should support at least isolated lightning
flashes.

Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will affect much of the Gulf
Coast and extending into the Carolinas as the air mass will become
marginally unstable with heating. Weak shear will further preclude
severe possibilities.

..Jewell.. 10/02/2026