URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western and Central Iowa
  Northwest Missouri
  Eastern Nebraska

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from NOON until
  700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and steadily
increase in coverage and intensity through early/mid-afternoon, with
all severe weather hazards.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Spencer IA
to 30 miles west of Falls City NE. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.

...Guyer

STATUS FOR WATCH 0134 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

Mesoscale Discussion 0501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...eastern Nebraska...western and central Iowa into
southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 231613Z - 231815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely along the cold front
from midday into early this afternoon across eastern NE into
northwest IA. A mix of supercells and line segments could support
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging gusts. A Weather Watch is
likely.

DISCUSSION...As of 1600 UTC, morning visible imagery showed initial
ACCAS deepening along the cold front analyzed from western MN into
northwest IA and eastern NE. Mid-level ascent associated with an
upper trough over the western Dakotas was evident overspreading the
front with an increase in cumuliform cloud structures on visible
imagery. A prominent dry slot has also helped erode residual cloud
cover from west to east, resulting in an increase in diurnal
heating. The net result has been surface warming and reduction in
residual inhibition on area model soundings. Sufficient
boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F) in
conjunction with the warming and ascent is supporting gradual
destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg.

As the upper trough and mid-level ascent continues eastward, flow
aloft will strengthen. Initial thunderstorm development is likely by
midday into early this afternoon over eastern NE and western IA.
Morning RAOBs and the arrival of the upper trough will contribute to
moderate deep-layer shear amidst veering wind profiles, supporting a
mixed mode of supercells and line segments. Large buoyancy and cool
mid-level temperatures suggest hail is likely with the initial
storms. Low-level shear is also sufficient for a few tornadoes,
especially with the more semi-discrete supercells.

Initial frontal forcing is expected to result in scattered to
widespread storm coverage. However, the cold front motion is
relatively modest (080/15 kt) and should allow convection to move
off the boundary and remain semi-discrete. With time, upscale growth
into one or more linear clusters is likely. This would support a
risk for damaging gust and a few embedded tornadoes. Given the
expected increase in storm coverage within a favorable environment,
a Tornado Watch is likely in the next couple of hours.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   44439567 44879515 44899419 44519319 43609299 41859386
            40029539 39779672 39889736 40029759 40399753 41329710
            42259660 44089603 44439567 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN
KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid
Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail
and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...MN/IA to KS/northern OK this afternoon into tonight...
The interaction of a southeastward moving midlevel trough over
southern BC/AB and a northeastward moving trough over the western
Dakotas will lead to the formation of a deep closed low over
southern SK.  An associated, occluding surface cyclone will weaken
across southern MB by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves
across MN/IA/KS/MO and northern OK.  Low-level moisture will spread
northward across IA/MN in advance of the cold front, beneath the
northeast edge of an elevated mixed layer.  Surface heating and the
degree of buoyancy may be limited by extensive clouds from IA into
MN, and forecast wind profiles show complex/messy hodographs
structures (stronger low-level shear lingering across IA).  Mixed
convective modes are expected along and ahead of the front this
afternoon, which could produce occasional wind damage, large hail
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

The more substantial severe threat is expected late this afternoon
through late evening from eastern KS into northern OK, near and just
northeast of a cold front/dryline triple point and weak secondary
cyclone.  A midlevel speed max near the Four Corners will progress
eastward to the TX Panhandle by this evening, with ascent in the
left exit region of the jet coincident with the triple point near or
just north of the KS/OK border.  An influx of mid 60s boundary-layer
dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, with weakening convective inhibition
across KS by mid afternoon.

Storm development is expected along the cold front in KS by mid
afternoon, with storms expected to develop southward to near the
triple point.  The large buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates and
deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells will favor very large
hail (2-3 inches in diameter) with the initial/more discrete storms.
 The tornado threat will peak this evening as low-level
shear/hodograph curvature increase near the KS/OK border - there
will be strong tornado potential with the anchor/southern supercells
near the triple point. Upscale storm growth and cold pool
development will favor a more linear convective mode with occasional
wind damage as the outflow/effective cold front spreads
southeastward into northeast OK and southwest MO overnight.

...OK dryline this evening...
Storm development along the dryline in OK is uncertain late this
afternoon/evening.  Forecast soundings suggest that the degree of
surface heating/mixing along the dryline and residence time in the
dryline circulation will be close to supporting deep convection.  If
storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor very large
hail initially, and the possibility of an evening tornado threat
with any sustained storm.

..Afwa.. 04/23/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible.
Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower
Ohio Valley as well.

... Synopsis ...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and
western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern
states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the
southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by
remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader
cyclonic flow.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into
Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely
tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still
be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the
period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away
from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from the afternoon
into the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance
suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40
corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains.
Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and
west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/Z HREF.

By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a
moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the
boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent
into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest
across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized
multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial
storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind
gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However,
localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a
brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should
support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS
structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening
hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind
threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a
corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may
occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the
east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent,
but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment
could produce large hail.

... Portions of the Ohio Valley ...

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio 
in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should
occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level
jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

..Afwa.. 04/23/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Current satellite
imagery portrays mostly clear skies across the fire weather risk
areas. Very poor overnight humidity recoveries in the High Plains
have resulted in widespread 15-25 percent RH values as depicted in
morning surface observations. In eastern NM through the central TX
Panhandle, Critical conditions are already being observed with
sub-15 percent RH and sustained westerly winds over 20 mph (locally
sporadic gusts over 35 mph). As mid/upper level moisture shifts
southeast over the Continental Divide, cloud cover will gradually
increase this afternoon with chances for precipitation over the
central Plains, providing some relief to the fire environment.
However, portions of the southern Plains are expected to remain
under mostly clear skies through the evening. Minimal cloud cover
will yield better boundary layer mixing, allowing Critical
conditions to persist for up to 12 hours in some areas. A 700-850 mb
jet will strengthen from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle this
afternoon as the surface low deepens over northwestern OK,
increasing concerns for localized extremely critical conditions to
develop in terrain-influenced areas. 

Across southern New England, a breezy post frontal environment will
develop in the wake of a passing dry cold front this afternoon. RH
is expected to drop to 25-35 percent with increasing northwesterly
winds of 10-15 mph at peak heating. However, marginal fuels and
recent precipitation precludes the introduction of fire weather
highlights. 

See the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and its accompanying mid-level jet streak will
move into the central CONUS today. Simultaneously, a surface trough
and cold front will advance through the central Plains and Upper
Midwest. The most acute fire weather risks are centered over the
central and southern High Plains, specifically behind and ahead of
the cold front. Within this corridor, intense southwesterly winds
will switch to the northwest following the frontal passage. When
coupled with low humidity and exceptionally dry fuels, these factors
will result in Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions.

...Southern and Central Plains...
Wind speeds just off the surface are expected to intensify from
eastern NM into the TX Panhandle by this afternoon, driven by
surface cyclogenesis over southern KS and northwest OK. Given that
the dryline is forecast to remain east of the Caprock through the
morning, moisture recovery will be lackluster across eastern NM and
the western TX Panhandle. With only minimal upper level clouds today
facilitating robust vertical mixing, expect RHs down to 10% or less,
while sustained westerly winds reach 20-25 mph.

The Critical area was expanded to include portions of northeast CO
and southwest NE. At least a few hours of critical conditions are
possible in northwest 15-20 mph winds behind the front before higher
RHs move over the area late in the day. Isolated pockets of
Extremely Critical conditions remain possible within the gap-flow
corridors of southeast CO and other terrain-influenced areas
stretching from eastern CO into the western TX Panhandle. In these
localized areas, sustained winds of 30 mph will likely overlap with
single-digit RHs.

To the north, an Elevated fire weather threat will persist across
the central Plains (including the remainder of eastern CO, western
KS, and much of NE) as dry, post-frontal northwesterly winds benefit
from downslope enhancement. This threat also encompasses portions of
the High Plains where the arrival of dry post-frontal air may cause
existing wildfires or dormant lightning holdovers from Wednesday to
flare up under the sustained dry and breezy regime. Precipitation
accumulation overnight will continue to be closely monitored over
portions of eastern South Dakota where elevated wind/RH conditions
are likely, but fuels are currently expected to become unreceptive.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...