No watches are valid as of Sat May 9 20:38:02 UTC 2026.MD 0688 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK...AND FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0688
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Areas affected...northern Ohio...western New York...and far
northwest Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 092036Z - 092200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts possible this
afternoon and into the evening across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms which first developed across eastern
Michigan along a cold front continues east this afternoon. As these
storms move off of Lake Erie/Ontario later this afternoon and into
the evening, some damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly
from far northeast Ohio into western New York. Instability is weak
due to limited moisture but low-level lapse rates are steep and
mid-level temperatures are cold. This may be sufficient to mix down
some of the stronger (40 to 50 knot) mid-level flow between 3 and 4
km (sampled by the CLE/IWX/DTX/BUF VWPs).
Some uncertainties remain given the cool Lake Erie/Ontario water
temperatures and the aforementioned weak instability. Therefore,
watch probabilities remain 40% for now and trends will be monitored.
If storm intensity remains consistent as the storms approach this
well-mixed airmass, a severe thunderstorm watch may need to be
considered.
..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...
LAT...LON 41208395 41278428 41748376 42658216 43338130 43538032
43477915 43417803 42917810 42297831 41927864 41597932
41208045 41048136 41048246 41088320 41208395
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0687 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Areas affected...portions of the central Great Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 092032Z - 092130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development should occur
from the eastern TX/OK Panhandles into western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas this afternoon. Large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts will be the main hazards.
DISCUSSION...Weak convection is noted along a subtle boundary
extending from southwestern Kansas into northeastern New Mexico,
with modest moisture return ongoing ahead of this boundary and east
of a dryline across the eastern TX/OK Panhandles, western Oklahoma,
and northwest Texas. A developing Cu field is evident across this
region in visible satellite imagery, with forecast soundings and
latest mesoanalysis depicting 500-1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid eroding
inhibition. Intensification of the southeastward moving convection
as it encounters this greater moisture and additional development
along a north-south oriented dryline across the eastern Texas
Panhandle are both likely over the next couple of hours.
Strengthening westerly flow aloft ahead of an approaching mid-level
shortwave trough is expected to promote increasing effective bulk
shear of 30-40 kts, which will be sufficient for high-based
supercells. Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates, this will
support a risk of large to very large hail. Steep low-level lapse
rates, deep well-mixed boundary layers, and DCAPE of 1000+ J/kg will
also promote a threat for severe wind gusts. Watch issuance will
likely be needed.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33429955 33900035 34310053 34880069 35630086 36200080
36640071 36960029 37139960 36999882 36579852 35569840
34889840 34479848 33909866 33459897 33429955
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 0686 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST/COASTAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0686
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Areas affected...portions of southeast/coastal Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 091946Z - 092145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A conditional risk for isolated large hail and damaging
wind gusts exists across portions of southeast Texas this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar/satellite imagery depicts ongoing
attempts at convective initiation along and south of a weak/remnant
surface boundary across portions of southeast Texas, with an
isolated thunderstorm noted near the Austin Metro. This activity is
occurring immediately downstream of a mid-level shortwave trough,
with cool temperatures aloft and a moist low-level air mass
supporting moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE per latest mesoanalysis and regional ACARS soundings).
Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this feature (as sampled
by the POE/LCH VAD profiles) is contributing to 40-50+ kts of
effective bulk shear, supportive of supercells; however, this
greater shear is largely displaced towards the eastern portions of
the discussion area (well ahead of the shortwave trough axis) with
much weaker shear farther west. Should a thunderstorm
develop/persist within the more favorable environment farther east,
the resultant elongated hodographs coupled with modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates will support an attendant risk for large hail.
Infiltrating dry mid-level air (evident on latest GOES water vapor
imagery) will also support greater evaporative cooling potential
with stronger downdrafts (DCAPE of 900-1100 J/kg per latest
mesoanalysis).
The close proximity of the mid-level shortwave and its eastward
progression along with the potentially unfavorable spatial overlap
of better deep-layer shear and low-level convergence will likely
yield a very narrow window for severe potential, with veering winds
aloft and subsidence behind the shortwave tempering
development/severe risk. Thus, while the ambient environment remains
conditionally favorable for large hail/damaging winds across
portions of far southeastern Texas, watch issuance appears unlikely
at this time owing to uncertainty regarding the
development/persistence of sustained storms within this better
environment. Trends will continue to be monitored, however.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30509369 30189367 29849375 29639394 29459442 29449481
29449534 29539613 29649677 29899720 30189764 30409774
30589760 30709731 30919656 31009614 31079577 31139546
31129495 31009426 30769383 30509369
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 0685 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0685
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Areas affected...far southeast North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 091927Z - 092100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts possible.
DISCUSSION...A mini supercell, currently with no lightning, has
developed across Columbus county, North Carolina. The LTX VWP shows
gradually increasing wind with height and some low-level turning.
This storm developed within a region of weak instability, but there
is greater instability closer to the coast where the greater
moisture is present. The most likely scenario will be a sub-severe
mini-supercell, but given the strong wind profile and gradually
increasing instability as it move east, a wind gust or even a
tornado cannot be ruled out.
Additionally, another cell could develop to its south/west and pose
a similar threat through the afternoon.
..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...
LAT...LON 34507719 34377752 34207771 33967785 34017812 34177845
34337851 34527833 34617761 34617726 34507719
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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