WW 274 SEVERE TSTM AR MS 170450Z - 171000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Arkansas
Western Mississippi
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1150 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Supercells should continue to pose a threat for large hail
up to 1-2 inches in diameter as they spread eastward overnight.
Scattered severe/damaging winds may occur if a cluster can form
along/ahead of a cold front. A tornado or two also remains possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest
of Pine Bluff AR to 20 miles east northeast of Greenville MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 269...WW 270...WW
271...WW 272...WW 273...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28035.
...Gleason
WW 273 SEVERE TSTM OH VA WV 170330Z - 170900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Ohio
Western Virginia
West Virginia
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1130 PM
until 500 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should spread eastward overnight
while posing a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds,
with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. Isolated hail and perhaps a tornado
or two may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast
of Parkersburg WV to 5 miles west southwest of Bluefield WV. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 267...WW 269...WW
270...WW 271...WW 272...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27040.
...Gleason
WW 271 TORNADO TN VA 170135Z - 170800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
835 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Middle and Eastern Tennessee
Far Southwest Virginia
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 835 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Both supercells and a line of thunderstorms should pose a
threat for a few tornadoes this evening and overnight as they spread
east-southeastward. A strong tornado remains possible, especially
with any supercell that can be maintained ahead of the line.
Scattered severe/damaging winds appear likely, with peak gusts
potentially reaching up to 60-75 mph. Occasional large hail may also
occur.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
north and south of a line from 80 miles west southwest of Nashville
TN to 45 miles east northeast of Knoxville TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 265...WW 267...WW
268...WW 269...WW 270...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28035.
...Gleason
WW 270 TORNADO AR MO MS TN 162350Z - 170700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
650 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Arkansas
The Missouri Bootheel
Far Northern Mississippi
Western Tennessee
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 650 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
SUMMARY...Multiple supercell thunderstorms should pose a threat for
a few tornadoes this evening, with a strong tornado possible with
any persistent supercell. Otherwise, large to very large hail (up to
2-3 inches in diameter) along with scattered to numerous
severe/damaging winds also appear likely. Peak gusts may reach up to
65-75 mph if a line of thunderstorms can form later this evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles south southwest of
Russellville AR to 50 miles east of Jackson TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 262...WW 264...WW
265...WW 266...WW 267...WW 268...WW 269...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Gleason
WW 0274 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0274 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0273 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 273
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/17/25
ATTN...WFO...RLX...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 273
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC167-170540-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WASHINGTON
VAC021-027-051-071-185-170540-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAND BUCHANAN DICKENSON
GILES TAZEWELL
WVC001-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-025-033-035-039-041-047-055-
063-067-073-075-081-083-085-087-089-091-095-097-101-105-107-109-
170540-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BOONE BRAXTON
CALHOUN CLAY DODDRIDGE
WW 0272 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N UNI TO
30 NNW HLG TO 15 SSE YNG.
..BROYLES..05/17/25
ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC013-019-059-067-081-111-121-170540-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELMONT CARROLL GUERNSEY
HARRISON JEFFERSON MONROE
NOBLE
PAC059-125-170540-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENE WASHINGTON
WVC009-029-049-051-061-069-103-170540-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE HANCOCK MARION
MARSHALL MONONGALIA OHIO
WW 0271 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 271
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/17/25
ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 271
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-021-025-027-031-035-037-041-043-
049-051-055-057-061-063-065-067-073-081-083-085-087-089-093-099-
101-103-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-127-129-133-135-137-139-
141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-159-165-169-173-175-177-181-185-
187-189-170540-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BEDFORD BLEDSOE
BLOUNT BRADLEY CAMPBELL
CANNON CHEATHAM CLAIBORNE
CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND
DAVIDSON DE KALB DICKSON
FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES
GRAINGER GRUNDY HAMBLEN
HAMILTON HANCOCK HAWKINS
HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS
JACKSON JEFFERSON KNOX
LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN
LOUDON MCMINN MACON
MARION MARSHALL MAURY
MEIGS MONROE MOORE
MORGAN OVERTON PERRY
PICKETT POLK PUTNAM
RHEA ROANE ROBERTSON
WW 0270 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 270
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S RKR TO
50 SE BVX TO 40 NNE DYR.
..BROYLES..05/17/25
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 270
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC035-037-051-077-085-093-095-097-107-113-117-119-123-125-147-
170540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRITTENDEN CROSS GARLAND
LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY PHILLIPS
POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI
ST. FRANCIS SALINE WOODRUFF
MSC003-009-027-033-093-107-117-119-137-139-141-143-170540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON COAHOMA
DESOTO MARSHALL PANOLA
PRENTISS QUITMAN TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA
TNC005-017-023-033-039-045-047-053-069-071-075-077-079-097-109-
WW 0269 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 269
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE BWG TO
35 N LOZ TO 50 NNW JKL TO 35 NNW CMH.
..BROYLES..05/17/25
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 269
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC013-019-025-043-051-053-057-063-065-071-089-095-109-115-119-
121-125-127-129-131-133-135-147-153-159-165-171-175-189-193-195-
197-199-203-205-207-231-235-237-170540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BOYD BREATHITT
CARTER CLAY CLINTON
CUMBERLAND ELLIOTT ESTILL
FLOYD GREENUP HARLAN
JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT
KNOX LAUREL LAWRENCE
LEE LESLIE LETCHER
LEWIS MCCREARY MAGOFFIN
MARTIN MENIFEE MONROE
MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY
PIKE POWELL PULASKI
ROCKCASTLE ROWAN RUSSELL
WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE
OHC001-009-041-045-049-053-073-079-087-089-097-105-115-127-129-
131-141-145-163-170540-
WW 0267 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 267
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW AUS TO
35 NW TPL TO 20 W CRS TO 10 SE DAL TO 20 SE DUA.
..HALBERT..05/17/25
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 267
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-027-099-119-145-147-161-213-223-231-257-277-289-293-309-
331-349-379-395-397-467-491-170440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL CORYELL
DELTA FALLS FANNIN
FREESTONE HENDERSON HOPKINS
HUNT KAUFMAN LAMAR
LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN
MILAM NAVARRO RAINS
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL VAN ZANDT
WILLIAMSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE POF
TO 45 NNE BWG.
..BROYLES..05/17/25
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 265
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC019-043-077-143-170340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FLOYD JEFFERSON
SCOTT
KYC029-031-035-047-061-075-083-085-093-105-111-141-143-157-163-
177-185-213-219-221-223-227-170340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BULLITT BUTLER CALLOWAY
CHRISTIAN EDMONSON FULTON
GRAVES GRAYSON HARDIN
HICKMAN JEFFERSON LOGAN
LYON MARSHALL MEADE
MUHLENBERG OLDHAM SIMPSON
TODD TRIGG TRIMBLE
WARREN
MD 0832 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0832
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025
Areas affected...northern Mississippi into northern and central
Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 170650Z - 170745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across northern Mississippi should
continue moving east through the morning. A downstream watch may be
necessary in the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues across southern
Arkansas into northern Mississippi where an environment
characterized by strong instability and deep-layer shear are
supporting robust updrafts. Recent radar trends suggest hail up to
1.5" in diameter and gusty winds are possible with the strongest of
these thunderstorm cores.
The environment ahead of these storms remains conducive for robust
updrafts with MLCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg (and MUCAPE between
2000-3000 J/kg) and deep-layer shear in excess of 50 knots. Thus,
the area downstream of Tornado Watch #270 is being monitored for a
potential new watch, and/or an extension in space of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #274.
Increasing convective inhibition may yield increasingly elevated
thunderstorms with time, favoring large hail and gusty winds as the
primary severe hazards. However, the overall environment will remain
conducive for supercell thunderstorms and with effective-layer SRH
between 200-300 a tornado cannot be ruled out.
Across northern Alabama the threat is a bit more uncertain. Here a
long-lived linear MCS continues to push south through Tennessee.
Although thunderstorm activity within this line has been sub-severe
of late, the overall environment remains fairly conducive for robust
thunderstorm updrafts and perhaps a severe hail and wind threat. If
thunderstorm intensity increases as these Tennessee thunderstorms
approach Alabama, a need for a downstream watch will become
necessary for portions of northern Alabama.
..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/17/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33239095 33969101 34419000 34808745 34778557 32908685
33239095
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging
gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern
Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast.
...Southern Plains Region...
Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in
water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this
morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model
guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest
Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is
some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west
TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to
be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm
development later today...especially across north TX.
Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture
along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the
lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns
across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop
across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and
more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent
regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line.
Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z,
and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon.
Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool,
steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with
the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z
model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of
north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters
spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While
low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential
will likely exist with the more organized supercells.
Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial
destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north
as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight.
Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over
OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell
development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across
southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region.
Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a
narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for
this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks.
...Northeast...
Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the
northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes
upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of
NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet
translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY,
with subsequent movement expected into western New England.
Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief
tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells.
..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on
Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the
Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the
Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop
along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface
low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and
will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will
extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains.
...Kansas and northern Oklahoma...
A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday
with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and
southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm,
strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the
mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale
ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease
inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows
limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during
the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas.
Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and
southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma.
Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for
very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening
as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in
storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains
unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward
progression of the surface warm front which will significantly
impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would
likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more
widespread storm development would likely favor development into a
MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern
Kansas and into Missouri.
Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems
appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10%
tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the
Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal
position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the
warm front.
...Oklahoma/Texas...
A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas
for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along
the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence
farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing.
However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which
could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet
intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and
North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for
intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes.
...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity...
By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward
around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado,
and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast
ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the
afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary
limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable
STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the
boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for
large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops
off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable
low-level shear across the region.
...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone
that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast.
Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately
sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with
neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast
soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated
development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize
from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday
convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal
zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused
region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across
AL/GA.
..Bentley.. 05/17/2025
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is
forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the
morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee
cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical
conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far
West Texas and far southeastern Arizona.
...Southern New Mexico...
As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the
southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH
coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are
anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in
portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of
Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance
indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values,
warranting only Elevated highlights at this time.
..Halbert.. 05/17/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is
forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the
southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening
dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread
Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far
West Texas.
...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas...
As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the
dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10%
relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid
wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding
the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the
00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though
there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any
Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas,
meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold --
however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below
average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this
time.
..Halbert.. 05/17/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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