No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 7 21:09:02 UTC 2026.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 7 21:09:02 UTC 2026.SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts may occur along the immediate northwest
Washington coast late this evening into tonight.
...Synopsis...
Within the primary northern stream, embedded shortwave troughs will
move from the lower Great Lakes to New England and to the Pacific
Northwest coast, respectively. Weak buoyancy rooted close to 850 mb
could support isolated lightning flashes in the zone of ascent
across southern and eastern Maine. A strong shortwave trough and
associated cold front will reach the WA coast late this
evening/early tonight, with strong winds near 100 kt in the mid
levels and 55-70 kt close to 850 mb. A forced frontal rain band is
a possibility late this evening with the potential for strong gusts
to mix down to the surface within the band. After frontal passage,
weak buoyancy will develop in the steeper lapse rate environment,
where isolated lightning flashes will be possible with low-topped
convection. There is enough convective wind potential along the
immediate northwest WA coast to justify an addition of a 5%
wind/MRGL area.
Otherwise, the potential for occasional elevated thunderstorms
(rooted near 700 mb) will continue across the Rio Grande Valley in
TX. Convection rooted near the surface will be possible across deep
South TX per the 12z BRO sounding. While a bit of an increase in
deep-layer vertical shear is expected later today, poor lapse rate
profiles and low-level vertical shear suggest little threat for
organized severe storms. Farther east, isolated convective showers
will be possible across southeast FL along a diffuse frontal zone,
though minimal forcing for ascent and the potential for substantial
dry entrainment in the mid levels will limit any thunderstorm
potential.
..Thompson/Barnes.. 11/07/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts may occur along the immediate northwest
Washington coast late this evening into tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Halbert-E.. 11/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Within the primary northern stream, embedded shortwave troughs will
move from the lower Great Lakes to New England and to the Pacific
Northwest coast, respectively. Weak buoyancy rooted close to 850 mb
could support isolated lightning flashes in the zone of ascent
across southern and eastern Maine. A strong shortwave trough and
associated cold front will reach the WA coast late this
evening/early tonight, with strong winds near 100 kt in the mid
levels and 55-70 kt close to 850 mb. A forced frontal rain band is
a possibility late this evening with the potential for strong gusts
to mix down to the surface within the band. After frontal passage,
weak buoyancy will develop in the steeper lapse rate environment,
where isolated lightning flashes will be possible with low-topped
convection. There is enough convective wind potential along the
immediate northwest WA coast to justify an addition of a 5%
wind/MRGL area.
Otherwise, the potential for occasional elevated thunderstorms
(rooted near 700 mb) will continue across the Rio Grande Valley in
TX. Convection rooted near the surface will be possible across deep
South TX per the 12z BRO sounding. While a bit of an increase in
deep-layer vertical shear is expected later today, poor lapse rate
profiles and low-level vertical shear suggest little threat for
organized severe storms. Farther east, isolated convective showers
will be possible across southeast FL along a diffuse frontal zone,
though minimal forcing for ascent and the potential for substantial
dry entrainment in the mid levels will limit any thunderstorm
potential.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across
the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.
...Discussion...
Within one branch of split westerlies emanating from the eastern
Pacific, models indicate that mid-level ridging across the
Intermountain West will broaden eastward across the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley through this period. As it does, an increasingly
sheared mid-level low within a branch to the south may only slowly
redevelop east-northeastward across the northern Mexican Plateau,
toward the Texas Big Bend vicinity Sunday through Sunday night.
In higher latitudes, it appears that larger-scale mid-level
troughing will continue to evolve and be maintained across
southeastern Canada and the Northeast, with one notable embedded
short wave trough forecast to pivot north-northeastward from
offshore of the New England coast through the Canadian Maritimes,
while a significant upstream perturbation digs from near/north of
the upper Great Lakes region toward the northern Atlantic Seaboard.
A trailing short wave trough is forecast to continue inland across
the Canadian Rockies and Prairies.
In the wake of an initial developing surface cyclone associated with
the Northeastern mid-level troughing, a couple of reinforcing
intrusions of cool/dry air will continue to overspread much of the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast and Mid Atlantic, behind a
weakening lead frontal zone across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf
Basin.
...Southern Texas...
Southeasterly low-level flow along the slowing/stalling surface
front will maintain relatively high moisture content in a corridor
along and east of the Rio Grande Valley vicinity Sunday. With the
approach of the remnant mid-level cyclonic circulation, forcing for
ascent and destabilization supported by differential thermal
advection will maintain an environment conducive to occasional
scattered thunderstorm development. Even with at least some
mid-level cooling and drying possible by late afternoon,
thermodynamic profiles still appear unlikely to become supportive of
an appreciable risk for severe hail and/or wind. But, this will
continue to be evaluated in later outlooks for this period.
...Pacific Northwest...
Latest model output suggests that an environment conducive to a risk
for convection capable of producing lightning (including strong,
moist low-level onshore flow beneath cool mid-levels) may be
maintained into the 15-18Z time frame Sunday morning.
...Lower Great Lakes vicinity...
Models suggest that mid-level cooling accompanying the digging short
wave trough will contribute to destabilization and occasional
scattered showers late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. By
late Sunday night, particularly near the southern lake shores to the
north of the Rochester and Syracuse vicinity, in association with
the mid-level cold core (-26 to -28C around 500 mb), this may
include some risk for weak thunderstorm activity. However, due to
the probable short-lived and isolated nature of this risk,
thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10
percent.
..Kerr.. 11/07/2026
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