WW 489 SEVERE TSTM ME NH NY VT 150025Z - 150800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
825 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Maine
Central and Northern New Hampshire
Northern New York
Northern Vermont
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 825 PM
until 400 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this
evening across the Watch and also move into the Watch area from the
west. A couple of supercells are possible with large hail and
severe gusts accompanying these storms. A tornado is also possible.
Later tonight, additional storms will probably evolve into a small
thunderstorm cluster with large hail and severe gusts the main
hazards with this activity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Massena NY to 40 miles east of Mount Washington NH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 488...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
30040.
...Smith
WW 488 SEVERE TSTM MT 142335Z - 150700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
535 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central into Northeast Montana
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 535
PM until 100 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify
through this evening across central Montana. A few supercells
yielding a risk for large hail and severe gusts will be possible
with the initial thunderstorm activity. By mid evening, additional
storms are forecast with an organized cluster potentially evolving
and moving east across portions of the Watch. Severe gusts will
probably become the main hazard by mid to late evening coincident
with this expected transition to an organized thunderstorm cluster.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles northwest of
Helena MT to 45 miles east southeast of Glasgow MT. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Smith
WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0489 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
..SQUITIERI..07/15/26
ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC005-007-013-015-027-033-037-043-045-049-055-059-065-069-071-
079-105-107-150140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BROADWATER CASCADE
CHOUTEAU FERGUS GARFIELD
GOLDEN VALLEY JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN
LEWIS AND CLARK MCCONE MEAGHER
MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS
PRAIRIE VALLEY WHEATLAND
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 15 01:45:16 UTC 2026.SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF NEW YORK...VERMONT...AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND A SMALL PART
OF WESTERN MAINE...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA AND SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are expected tonight across parts of
northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered
severe winds and hail will also be possible across portions of
Montana.
...New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic...
The glancing influence of a shortwave trough and associated
mid/upper-level jet streaks moving through Quebec have contributed
to a recent increase in storm coverage and intensity from portions
of the St. Lawrence Valley into northern parts of VT and NH. Owing
to considerable clouds and wildfire smoke, a baroclinic zone is
analyzed from northern VT through central NH to the Southern Coast
of ME. The 00z observed soundings across the region indicate the
presence of a capping inversion at the base of a relatively warm and
dry EML, which casts some uncertainty on updraft intensity and
duration, owing to the deleterious effects of entrainment and
existing convective inhibition.
However, any storms that can become sustained will do so within a
kinematic environment featuring strong deep-layer shear, which will
conditionally support the potential for large hail, damaging winds
with significant gusts to 70-75 mph possible, and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes. The best potential for that threat to be realized may
be with the rapidly intensifying storms across portions of eastern
Ontario, which are projected to reach northern NY within the next
2-3 hours. As such, severe probabilities have been adjusted in
portions of NY to account for the Ontario storms.
...Montana...
A cluster of supercells capable of large hail has developed this
evening over central MT within a relatively moist, post-frontal
upslope regime within MLCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg, per latest
objective analysis. With time, the presence of large
temperature-dewpoint spreads and a resultant, well-mixed boundary
layer will enhance downdraft potential, leading to a cold-pool
driven convective system with an attendant risk for damaging winds
with gusts up to 75 mph.
For additional near-term guidance, see MCD 1617.
..Mead.. 07/15/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
A strong upper ridge will persist over the central/northern Plains
through the end of this week into the early weekend. Following a
northward progressing shortwave trough along the Pacific Northwest
coast on Day 3/Thursday, ensembles indicate the upper ridge will
then translate westward to encompass much of the western CONUS while
the eastern US is expected to remain in a troughing pattern. Daily
chances of thunderstorm activity are possible in the extended
forecast period across the Intermountain West as monsoonal moisture
advects northward once again.
...Portions of northeastern California and the Central Valley,
northwestern Nevada, and far south-central Oregon...
Warm daytime temperatures and low RH will contribute to drying fuels
across the California Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley. ERCs
are forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile by late this week
amid dry and breezy conditions, supporting any new ignitions and the
emergence of lightning holdovers from wet/dry thunderstorms early in
the forecast period. 40% Critical probabilities remain on Day
3/Thursday to account for this threat. Farther north, strong
south-southwesterly flow aloft behind a shortwave trough bypassing
the Pacific Northwest will encourage dry and windy conditions across
northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, and south-central
Oregon on Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday. Preceding days of thunderstorms
and pockets of heavier rainfall may alleviate some fuel concerns;
however, a returning dry airmass and gusty winds may encourage any
lightning holdovers to emerge.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
|
