Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN GULF
STATES TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states. Damaging gusts,
large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are the expected hazards.

...Gulf States/South Atlantic Coast...

Strong short-wave trough is ejecting east across KS/northern OK late
this evening as a secondary 500mb speed max digs southeast toward
the central High Plains. As the secondary short wave digs southeast,
the northern/southern stream will become more phased over the MS
Valley by late afternoon. Net result will be to suppress the primary
corridor of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the
southern Plains/Gulf states into the middle Atlantic. As heights
fall across the Midwest into the northern Gulf states, pressures
will rise over the interior CONUS and the synoptic front should
begin to surge southeast across the lower MS Valley.

Late this evening, scattered thunderstorms have developed over
northern MS/AL, just north of the boundary within a zone of
low-level warm advection. This activity should spread east and
should be ongoing at the start of the period along the cool side of
the boundary. While much of day1 convection will be elevated north
of the wind shift, some boundary-layer heating is expected across
the warm sector, and modest SBCAPE is expected where surface dew
points will range from the upper 60s to near 70F. Forecast soundings
suggest more than adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized
rotating updrafts. Low-level shear is not expected to be
particularly noteworthy so damaging gusts and hail are the primary
concerns, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. Convection
will develop/spread east along the frontal zone and the greatest
risk for robust convection will be during the afternoon/evening
hours.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/21/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across
coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts.

... Discussion ...

A strong shortwave trough and attendant speed max over the Ohio
Valley at the start of the period will quickly dig east/southeast
during the day on Sunday, before pivoting north toward southern New
England overnight. At the surface, a low, initially over the coastal
waters of North Carolina, will deepen through the day as strong
large-scale ascent increases with the approaching shortwave trough.
The rate of deepening of the surface low will only increase
overnight as the shortwave trough takes on a neutral to negative
tilt and large-scale ascent increases further.

As the surface low deepens along the coast, the intensifying warm
conveyor belt to the north and west of the low, drawing warm, moist
Gulf Stream air inland. The combination of strong large-scale
ascent, strong low-level warm-air advection, and cooling mid-level
temperatures may result in enough elevated instability to support a
few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt as the low lifts
northward along the coast.

Farther south and west, the deepening surface low will drive a cold
front south across the Florida Peninsula. Surface temperatures in
the 70Fs and dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60Fs may support a narrow
ribbon of most-unstable CAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg ahead of the
southward advancing front. As a result, showers and a few
thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the front. Forecast
soundings show pronounced mid-and-upper-level warming, which will
limit the overall instability and a more robust lightning threat.

Across the West, strong ascent and some moisture advection
associated with the next upper-trough may lead to very isolated
lightning strikes along and off the Pacific Northwest coast.
However, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need
for delineation.

..Marsh.. 02/21/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.

... Discussion ...

As the East Coast cyclone departs on Monday, a cool, dry airmass
will settle over much of the country, suppressing thunderstorm
activity.

..Marsh.. 02/21/2026