Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are
possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon
and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper
Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.

...Southern High Plains...
Thunderstorm development is likely by mid/late-afternoon across
southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico as increase forcing for
ascent overspreads modest but increasing low-level moisture.
Initially discrete cells are likely and will pose a threat for large
hail given adequate deep-layer wind shear /generally 30-40 kt/.
However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote upscale
growth by early evening into several linear clusters. As this
transition occurs, strong to severe wind gust potential will
increase and become the predominant hazard, though an embedded
circulation or two may occur with a tornado possible.

...Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Low-level warm air advection will likely become increasingly focused
through the day and into the overnight hours from the central Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley. 850 mb winds are forecast to
steadily strengthen to 40-60 kt by this evening and will support
moistening in the lowest 1-2 km under a plume of 7-7.5 C/km
mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that this
environment will be weakly capped and should support isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across the
central Plains before spreading/re-developing northeastward into the
upper Mississippi Valley late tonight. While deep-layer wind shear
will not be overly strong (around 30 kt), it should be sufficient
for a few organized cells capable of severe hail.

A more conditional supercell potential may materialize by mid/late
afternoon through early evening across portions of the middle/lower
Missouri Valley near/just south of the northward-shifting surface
warm front, which may augmented by residual cloud cover/weakening
storms across northeast Kansas/far southeast Nebraska in the
pre-dawn hours. Forecast soundings from this region suggest a weakly
capped, but moderately buoyant airmass, with notably strong
low-level/deep-layer wind profiles that would conditionally support
supercells including some tornado risk.

...Central/northern Rockies...
A northeast-ejecting shortwave trough, along with steep mid-level
lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture, will likely support
additional thunderstorms across the central to northern Rockies this
afternoon as diurnal heating occurs. A combination of modest
deep-layer wind shear and well-mixed boundary layers will support
potential for strong to severe downburst winds.

...Northern/central California Coast...
A progressive upper wave will continue eastward and reach the
northern California coast tonight. As this occurs, ascent within
the left-exit region of an attendant upper jet, coupled with cool
mid-level temperatures near the center of the upper low, will
support isolated thunderstorms across northern/central California.
Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt
as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential
for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind
gusts.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/11/2026