WW 302 SEVERE TSTM MN 101750Z - 110100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM
until 800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to increase along and
ahead of a cold front moving through northern Minnesota this
afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate shear will
support the potential for strong updrafts capable of large to
isolated very large hail. A few strong gusts are possible as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of
Detroit Lakes MN to 20 miles east southeast of Hibbing MN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 301...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Mosier
WW 301 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MN WI 101700Z - 110000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Eastern Iowa
Northwest Illinois
Extreme Southeast Minnesota
Wisconsin
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from NOON until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line across far east-central Iowa is
forecast to continue northeastward into central/southern Wisconsin,
with an attendant threat for damaging gusts. Additional development
is anticipated farther north from far southeast Minnesota into
northern Wisconsin. Some initially cellular development could
produce large hail. Quick transition to a more linear mode is
expected here as well, with damaging wind then becoming the primary
risk.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles north
northwest of Cedar Rapids IA to 60 miles east southeast of Mosinee
WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24040.
...Mosier
WW 0302 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0302 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0301 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 301
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1066
..MOSIER..06/10/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MPX...GRB...DLH...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 301
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-037-073-085-103-111-131-141-155-161-177-195-201-
101940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
DE KALB HENRY JO DAVIESS
LEE MCHENRY MERCER
OGLE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO
IAC005-019-031-043-045-055-061-065-097-105-113-139-163-191-
101940-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BUCHANAN CEDAR
CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE
DUBUQUE FAYETTE JACKSON
JONES LINN MUSCATINE
SCOTT WINNESHIEK
MD 1066 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Areas affected...southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...
Valid 101800Z - 102000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301
continues.
SUMMARY...An arcing line of thunderstorms has organized in eastern
Iowa and will move northeastward for the next few hours through WW
301. The threat for severe wind gusts is greatest in the delineated
area as the system moves through.
DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms has developed in eastern
IA and is moving northeastward into southern WI and northern IL. A
64-kt wind gust was reported at 1740z in Dubuque, IA associated with
this convection. Difluence aloft and low-level convergence along the
leading edge of a ~10-F-deficit cold pool have likely contributed to
storm strengthening during the last hour or so. Per current
mesoanalysis, the line of storms is moving into a CAPE axis
stretching from central IN northwestward into southeastern MN,
featuring 2500+ J/kg along the WI/IL border. Bulk shear magnitudes
are around 40 kts and southwesterly, oriented perpendicular to the
convective line. This environment will support a threat for
continued severe wind gusts as the system moves northeast for the
next few hours.
..Flournoy.. 06/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 42909185 43639117 44029026 44198911 43798795 42698784
42008854 41379002 42289068 42909185
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Areas affected...north-central Minnesota and the vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 101735Z - 101930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is probable this
afternoon across north-central Minnesota. Wind gusts and large hail
are possible with the strongest storms.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway along a mostly
meridional cold front draped along the western MN border. This
vertical development is boosted by a shortwave impulse rotating
through the broader cyclone aloft -- currently arcing through
central SD -- evident in upper-level water vapor imagery. Diurnal
heating amidst scattered cloudiness has yielded temperatures rising
to around 80 F ahead of the front, and dewpoints in the mid-/upper-
60s F. Per current mesoanalysis, this environment features
negligible convective inhibition and CAPE values around 1500+ J/kg.
During the next couple of hours, additional convection initiation
and maturation is expected along and ahead of the front as it moves
eastward into northern MN. Wind profiles are forecast to be mostly
southerly, with strong upper-level flow inducing large cloud-bearing
shear. While relatively modest low-level shear should limit the
tornado threat with any discrete cells, the larger bulk shear will
support a wind and large-hail threat with any stronger supercell
structures.
..Flournoy/Mosier.. 06/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 45979739 47389707 48609631 48679491 48249337 46989267
45929297 45929297 45129516 45239691 45979739
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and
damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon
and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest.
...Mid/Upper MS Valley into the central Plains...
Regional radar imagery shows an ongoing cluster of strong
thunderstorms across southern IA and northern MO, supported by a
residual low-level jet that currently extends from KS/northern OK
into the region. Heating of the very moist airmass downstream will
result in limited convective inhibition and strong to very strong
buoyancy by the early afternoon. Reintensification of the ongoing
cluster is anticipated as it moves within this destabilizing
airmass. Deep-layer shear will be modest but still sufficient for
some organization, and the development of a strong to occasionally
severe bowing line segment appears probable, particularly from
northeast IA into southern WI and northern IL. New updrafts ahead of
the line could also produce hail early in the convective cycle,
while also potentially contributing to updraft augmentation as they
merge into the line. Some isolated hail could result from this
augmentation as well.
Farther north, recent surface analysis placed a triple point low
over northeast SD. An occluded front extends north-northwestward
from this low across eastern ND into central Manitoba, while cold
front extends southward to another low over northeast NE and then
back southwestward across the central Plains. The frontal zone and
triple point low are forecast to progress eastward into the Upper
Midwest, interacting with a diurnally destabilizing airmass to
support thunderstorm development. Ample low-level moisture (i.e.
dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) will support strong buoyancy,
despite modest lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer vertical shear
should be sufficient for updraft organization. As a result, strong
to severe thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead the front,
with large hail as the primary threat. Isolated very large hail to
2" in diameter could occur. Some damaging gusts are possible as
storms transition into bowing line segments over time. There is also
a low-probability for a few brief tornadoes, particularly with any
more cellular development from central into eastern WI from 21 to
00Z.
An additional severe threat will likely materialize this evening in
the wake of the afternoon MCS within the recovered airmass from the
Mid MS Valley westward through the Mid MO Valley into the central
Plains. The impetus for this redevelopment will likely be a complex
combination of low-level convergence along the approaching front,
low-level convergence and warm-air advection along remnant outflow,
and modest large-scale ascent. Development along the front appears
most likely from central IA southwestward into northeast KS, while
development along the outflow appears most likely northwest IL
across southern IA. The airmass in all of these areas will likely
feature ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid
70s), warm surface temperatures (highs in the low 90s), and at least
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates. This will result in strong to
extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from
northeast KS into southern IA, northern MO, and west-central IL.
Complex surface pattern will likely yield limited predictability for
the primary severe hazard this evening. Given the extreme buoyancy
and moderate mid-level flow, any more cellular development that is
able to mature should become supercellular, with all severe hazards
possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. Storm interaction
and strong downdrafts will likely make maintaining a discrete mode
difficult, but low-level hodographs support the potential for a
strong tornado, particularly from 00 to 03Z amid a strengthening
low-level jet.
Lastly, early morning strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across central/eastern NE as a secondary branch of the low-level jet
develops in response to another shortwave trough moving into the
central High Plains.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States...
A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of
the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 70s F.
While some thunderstorms are ongoing early today, additional and
more potent thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon
as the boundary layer destabilizes. These storms will be further
influenced by a pair of weak eastward-moving MCVs, one over the
upper Ohio River Valley and the other over the central Appalachians.
Damaging winds, associated with water-loaded downbursts, will be the
primary hazard regionally.
..Mosier/Flournoy.. 06/10/2026
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND MIDWEST...
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and
damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon
and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest.
...Mid/Upper MS Valley into the central Plains...
Regional radar imagery shows an ongoing cluster of strong
thunderstorms across southern IA and northern MO, supported by a
residual low-level jet that currently extends from KS/northern OK
into the region. Heating of the very moist airmass downstream will
result in limited convective inhibition and strong to very strong
buoyancy by the early afternoon. Reintensification of the ongoing
cluster is anticipated as it moves within this destabilizing
airmass. Deep-layer shear will be modest but still sufficient for
some organization, and the development of a strong to occasionally
severe bowing line segment appears probable, particularly from
northeast IA into southern WI and northern IL. New updrafts ahead of
the line could also produce hail early in the convective cycle,
while also potentially contributing to updraft augmentation as they
merge into the line. Some isolated hail could result from this
augmentation as well.
Farther north, recent surface analysis placed a triple point low
over northeast SD. An occluded front extends north-northwestward
from this low across eastern ND into central Manitoba, while cold
front extends southward to another low over northeast NE and then
back southwestward across the central Plains. The frontal zone and
triple point low are forecast to progress eastward into the Upper
Midwest, interacting with a diurnally destabilizing airmass to
support thunderstorm development. Ample low-level moisture (i.e.
dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) will support strong buoyancy,
despite modest lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer vertical shear
should be sufficient for updraft organization. As a result, strong
to severe thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead the front,
with large hail as the primary threat. Isolated very large hail to
2" in diameter could occur. Some damaging gusts are possible as
storms transition into bowing line segments over time. There is also
a low-probability for a few brief tornadoes, particularly with any
more cellular development from central into eastern WI from 21 to
00Z.
An additional severe threat will likely materialize this evening in
the wake of the afternoon MCS within the recovered airmass from the
Mid MS Valley westward through the Mid MO Valley into the central
Plains. The impetus for this redevelopment will likely be a complex
combination of low-level convergence along the approaching front,
low-level convergence and warm-air advection along remnant outflow,
and modest large-scale ascent. Development along the front appears
most likely from central IA southwestward into northeast KS, while
development along the outflow appears most likely northwest IL
across southern IA. The airmass in all of these areas will likely
feature ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid
70s), warm surface temperatures (highs in the low 90s), and at least
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates. This will result in strong to
extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from
northeast KS into southern IA, northern MO, and west-central IL.
Complex surface pattern will likely yield limited predictability for
the primary severe hazard this evening. Given the extreme buoyancy
and moderate mid-level flow, any more cellular development that is
able to mature should become supercellular, with all severe hazards
possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. Storm interaction
and strong downdrafts will likely make maintaining a discrete mode
difficult, but low-level hodographs support the potential for a
strong tornado, particularly from 00 to 03Z amid a strengthening
low-level jet.
Lastly, early morning strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across central/eastern NE as a secondary branch of the low-level jet
develops in response to another shortwave trough moving into the
central High Plains.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States...
A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of
the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 70s F.
While some thunderstorms are ongoing early today, additional and
more potent thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon
as the boundary layer destabilizes. These storms will be further
influenced by a pair of weak eastward-moving MCVs, one over the
upper Ohio River Valley and the other over the central Appalachians.
Damaging winds, associated with water-loaded downbursts, will be the
primary hazard regionally.
..Mosier/Flournoy.. 06/10/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AMD EASTERN
IOWAS....NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI....NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
VICINITY...
CORRECTED FOR A FEW TYPOS/WORDING
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including one or two
organizing clusters, will probably be accompanied by the potential
for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of strong
tornadoes in a corridor across the Midwest into Great Lakes region
Thursday through Thursday night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid-level subtropical ridging will be
maintained across much of the southern tier of the U.S. through this
period, while the westerlies begin to trend a bit more zonal across
the northern tier, in the wake of a broad, deep occluding cyclone
slowly migrating northeastward toward southwestern Hudson Bay. A
significant short wave trough turning to the east of the northern
Rockies, to the south of the cyclone, at the outset of the period,
is still forecast to pivot across southern portions of the mid
Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes Thursday through
Thursday night. This is likely to be accompanied by the
northeastward migration of an associated secondary surface frontal
low, from the central Great Plains across and northeast of the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region by 12Z Friday.
Downstream, mid-level ridging appears likely to build through the
day across the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity, with
one or two perturbations digging within weak northwesterly flow
further downstream, across the Allegheny Mountains and northern Mid
Atlantic vicinity.
A seasonably moist air mass, supportive of moderate to large
potential instability, is likely to be maintained within the warm
sector of the cyclone, to the north of the subtropical ridge.
However, it appears that this may be substantively modified, at
least initially, by outflow from thunderstorm development today
across a large portion of the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region.
There have been some adjustments of categorical and probabilistic
thunder/severe lines to account for associated uncertainties, and
also attempt to better account for consensus of varying model
output.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into southern Great Plains...
Downstream of the approaching short wave impulse and secondary low,
low-level warm advection on the nose of a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb
jet may be providing support for an evolving convective cluster
along/north of an outflow boundary across southwestern Iowa at the
outset of the period. This may include storms with potential to
produce severe hail, before perhaps becoming rooted in a
destabilizing boundary layer while spreading with forcing across
Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois through Thursday
afternoon. This could include increasing potential for convection
capable of producing damaging wind gust and perhaps a few tornadoes.
Thereafter, the primary forcing for stronger destabilization and
lift to support strong/severe thunderstorm development seems likely
to shift to the intersection of the trailing outflow/secondary
surface low/cold front across southeastern Iowa by late afternoon.
This may include supercell development initially, before convection
grows upscale and organizes in the presence of strong low-level and
deep-layer shear, then propagates into and across the lower Lake
Michigan/Michigan vicinities through Thursday evening, with
potential for strong, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.
Scattered additional strong/severe storm development is possible in
the corridor of stronger pre-frontal instability, but weaker
mid/upper support and shear, southwestward through portions of the
southern Great Plains.
...Alleghenies/northern Mid Atlantic...
Moderate to locally strong potentially instability probably will
become sufficient to support widely scattered strong to severe
thunderstorm development with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts Thursday afternoon and evening.
..Kerr.. 06/10/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING AND FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...
No changes were made to the drawn area. Satellite imagery shows
mostly sunny skies across much of both Elevated areas this morning.
Only a few mid-level clouds exist over eastern portions of CO and WY
which are not expected to affect the forecast today. Surface
observations over the high terrain of central CO and the plains of
WY already show strong westerly winds sustained above 15-20 mph in
favored areas. RHs are also hovering around 20-35% over much of the
same region. Thus, surface conditions remain in agreement with the
latest forecast guidance and no changes are necessary.
Significant fire growth occurred yesterday and last night on the
South Fork Fire, which is again included in the eastern extent of
the highlighted Critical area today. Relief in the form of well
below normal temperatures will be on the way over the next few days.
..Stearns.. 06/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
An elongated upper trough will extend from the Pacific Northwest to
the Upper Midwest with an attendant 60-80 kt jet across the Rockies,
aiding in surface low development over eastern CO/western KS.
Amplified westerly flow aloft and surface troughing will enhance
windy conditions amid a dry airmass across the Great Basin into the
central Plains, continuing widespread fire concerns as fuels
approach critical thresholds. At the base of the exiting upper
trough, deep northerly flow will promote dry and breezy conditions
into the Sacramento Valley where dry fine fuels exist.
...Eastern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and central High Plains...
Strong westerly surface winds in the wake of a cold front beneath
pronounced mid-level flow will continue fire weather concerns across
portions of the central Plains today. West winds of 25-30 mph and RH
as low as 15% will align with pockets of dry fuels, maintaining a
Critical fire weather threat in eastern WY and far northwestern NE.
Weaker, but still impactful westerly flow will support Elevated fire
weather conditions in the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners
regions as westerly 10-15 mph winds and RH values of 10-15% overlap
dry fuels. Across portions of southeast UT, a fairly small corridor
may experience localized areas of briefly critical winds
(west-southwesterly at 15-25 mph) amidst widespread warm and dry
conditions.
...Sacramento Valley...
Dry, post-frontal northerly flow funneling into the Sacramento
Valley will promote an Elevated fire weather threat to the region
and adjacent valley foothills. Sustained northerly winds of 10-15
mph (locally up to 20 mph) and RH at or below 15% are expected to
coalesce amid receptive fuels to support fire spread. Dry and breezy
conditions will persist into the overnight hours, leading to an
extended burning period and continued fire weather concerns on Day
2/Thursday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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