URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 690
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
600 PM MST Wed Oct 21 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and Northern Arizona

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 600 PM
  until 200 AM MST.

* Primary threats include...
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of a risk for large
hail and severe gusts will be possible tonight across the Watch
area.  A tornado is also possible with the more intense supercells.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of
Flagstaff AZ to 30 miles north northeast of Show Low AZ. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 688...WW 689...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector
22040.

...Smith

STATUS REPORT ON WW 690

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..KERR..10/22/26

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 690 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

AZC001-005-017-025-220740-

AZ 
.    ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

APACHE               COCONINO            NAVAJO              
YAVAPAI              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and
Four Corners area today into tonight with the most intense storms
likely across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. All severe hazards
will be possible.

...Southwest and Four Corners...
The deep upper low initially over the CA coast will move inland and
continue eastward through the day, slowly weakening into an open
wave. A belt of enhanced southerly mid-level flow (70+ kt) along the
eastern periphery of the cyclone will remain in place over the
Southwest and Four Corners. Several embedded shortwave perturbations
will rotate around the cyclone, aiding in continued low-level
southerly flow across eastern AZ and southwest NM. Here, surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F and diurnal heating should
contribute to moderate buoyancy amid deep and strongly veering wind
profiles favorable for severe storms.

One or more bands of convection are likely to be ongoing across
central/eastern AZ early this morning along a weak surface trough.
Cooling mid-level temperatures ahead of the approaching low and
persistent upslope flow along the central and southern portions of
the Mogollon Rim will maintain buoyancy through the diurnal minimum
with reintensification of these storms likely as heating develops
over the lower deserts. Storms will likely be supercellular
initially. Large hail (perhaps to around 2 inches) and a couple of
tornadoes will be the main concern, focused where the largest
buoyancy and strongest low-level shear will overlap in southeastern
AZ. With time, increasingly meridional flow and numerous storm
interactions will favor more linear modes and perhaps a transition
to a greater damaging wind threat by later in the afternoon.

Farther north into the Great Basin, sufficient destabilization for
more than sporadic severe storms is much less certain owing to lower
surface dewpoints and significant cloud cover. Still, model guidance
shows a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE may develop with pockets of
better heating from eastern NV, UT and into southwestern CO. Flow
aloft will remain fairly strong (50-60 kt) helping to elongate mid
and upper-level hodographs. DPVA and upslope trajectories should
support numerous showers/thunderstorms with some potential for
organization into clusters or supercell structures. Damaging wind
gusts are the most likely hazard, though marginally severe hail is
also possible with any of the stronger rotating storms into the
evening.

...Southern California...
As the upper-level low moves overhead during the afternoon, cold
mid-level temperatures (around -20C at 500 mb) and modest surface
heating will support weak destabilization with MLCAPE of 500-750
J/kg. Low-topped convection near the coast may be ongoing early and
continue into the early afternoon before mid-level ascent begins to
decrease. Given the ambient vorticity with the upper-low and local
terrain effects, a brief tornado is possible with the strongest
storms along with isolated wind damage potential. Severe potential
should rapidly diminish as the upper trough moves eastward late
through the afternoon and into the evening.

..Lyons/Jirak.. 10/22/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New
Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will slowly progress over the Rockies on
Friday, with a lead mid-level impulse poised to eject into the
northern Plains while a lagging 500 mb cut-off low drifts eastward
across the Desert Southwest. Given adequate low-level moisture
return and deep-layer ascent ahead of the longwave mid-level trough,
thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Rockies and the
central to northern Plains. Isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible across portions of NM, where locally greater moisture and
instability reside.

...Western into central New Mexico...
As the aforementioned leading mid-level impulse departs the Rockies
and the cut-off low approaches NM, 50+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow
will overspread the Desert Southwest, where low to mid 50s F surface
dewpoints amid southeasterly surface flow will be in place. Given
7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may
manifest amid appreciably curved and elongated hodographs, with
30-40 kts of effective bulk shear likely. By afternoon,
thunderstorms should develop and intensify with diurnal heating.
Given the aforementioned vertical shear/buoyancy, some supercell
structures should develop, accompanied by an isolated severe
wind/hail threat, and a tornado is also possible.

..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Broader fire weather concerns remain low across CONUS today. An
upper low will push into the Great Basin today while an associated
mid-level jet approaches the Four Corners region. Cloud cover,
cooler temperatures and precipitation will impact much of the
Intermountain West reducing fire weather concerns across this
region. Surface high pressure entrenched over the eastern CONUS
complimented by upper ridging over the Plains will contribute to
light winds (10 mph or less) over the Deep South where dry and
receptive fuels persist.

..Williams.. 10/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will push eastward into the Intermountain West
while increasing southwesterly flow associated with a potent
mid-level jet moves over the central Rockies. A deepening surface
low across eastern MT will promote dry and breezy conditions and
increased fire weather threat over parts of the northern High Plains
Day 2/Friday.

...Northern High Plains...
A deepening surface low across eastern MT will evolve Friday as a
50-60 knot mid-level jet ahead of a broad upper trough presses into
the Central Rockies. Resultant deep layer south to southwest flow
and downslope drying ahead of a cold front will bring elevated fire
weather concerns to northeastern WY, far southeastern MT and
adjacent bordering areas of ND and SD where drier fuels exist. HREF
mean wind speeds of 20-30 mph from the south/southwest are likely to
develop by early Friday afternoon while accompanied by localized
minimum RH as low as 15% in some locations, although most areas
within the Elevated highlights will be closer to 20-25%. Above
normal temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s F ahead of an advancing
cold front, lack of recent rainfall and strength of winds should
contribute to the overall wildfire threat.

..Williams.. 10/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...