WW 414 SEVERE TSTM MN 291515Z - 292100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and central Minnesota
* Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 1015 AM until
400 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized and fast-moving storm complex will
continue generally northeastward across north-central/northern
Minnesota through the afternoon, with damaging winds and large hail
as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south
southwest of Bemidji MN to 40 miles north northeast of Duluth MN.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 413...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
23040.
...Guyer
WW 413 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 291055Z - 291700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
555 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Minnesota
Southeast North Dakota
Central into Northeast South Dakota
* Effective this Monday morning from 555 AM until NOON CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 100
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will move from central
South Dakota into northeast South Dakota, southeast North Dakota,
and into parts of northwest Minnesota. Damaging winds and large hail
will be likely, along with peak gusts in the 80 to 100 mph range.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west of
Chamberlain SD to 35 miles north of Detroit Lakes MN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 412...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 85 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
23040.
...Smith
WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0414 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ATY TO
25 SSE ABR TO 40 NNW ABR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377
..MEAD..06/29/26
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...FSD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-011-027-051-087-107-111-155-167-291540-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BIG STONE CLAY
GRANT MAHNOMEN NORMAN
OTTER TAIL TRAVERSE WILKIN
NDC017-021-073-077-081-291540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS DICKEY RANSOM
RICHLAND SARGENT
SDC013-025-029-037-051-091-109-291540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MD 1378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Areas affected...Northern Lower Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291543Z - 291745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of large hail are possible with the
ongoing storms this morning. The limited areal coverage of the
threat is expected to preclude a watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have persisted this morning
across northern Lake Michigan into northern lower MI, with some of
the storms exhibiting episodic supercellular characteristics. That
convective activity is likely elevated on the northeast periphery of
stronger mid-level capping and largely driven by low/mid-level warm
advection per KAPX VWP. Model-derived forecast soundings and the
observed wind profile data suggest the environment will remain
supportive of periodic storm organization through the remainder of
the morning with an attendant risk for large hail.
..Mead/Guyer.. 06/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...APX...
LAT...LON 45598628 45958581 45698432 44878335 44338380 44418467
44828548 45188620 45598628
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of an intense swath of severe wind
gusts are likely across northeast South Dakota into northwest
Minnesota through midday. Later today, severe thunderstorms are
possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a
couple of tornadoes may also occur.
...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the central Rockies. This upper disturbance will acquire a
negative tilt and move into the central Dakotas by early evening. A
surface low over the north-central Plains will develop northward
into eastern ND by 00z as a warm front advances northward across
much of MN.
Through midday, an intense supercell over northeast SD will continue
to move quickly northeastward through parts of the eastern Dakotas
this morning and into northwest MN. Recent CAM model guidance
(i.e., time-lagged HRRR) has been remarkably consistent in showing
the evolution of the SD thunderstorm complex into northern MN today.
Have upgraded to an Enhanced Risk downstream of this extremely
intense supercell evolving into a bow within a focused mesoscale
corridor. Please refer to MCD #1376 for short-term forecast
details.
Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable
over parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are forecast by late afternoon as large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region.
Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor
supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and
severe gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity.
Towards the early evening, additional storms are likely to develop
farther east over MN with a hail/wind threat likely persisting
through the evening.
...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline.
Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally
weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will
be capable of severe gusts with the more intense cores.
..Smith/Jewell.. 06/29/2026
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