Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of tonight.

...Synopsis...

Expansive surface high pressure and a dry/stable boundary layer will
preclude thunderstorm activity tonight.

..Leitman.. 01/13/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern will be characterized by ridging across the
western U.S. and deeper troughing east of the Continental Divide
through early next week. This will favor dry and seasonably warm
conditions across the West while pronounced troughing invites cold
front intrusions into the Plains and eastern CONUS. Post-frontal
winds, where not accompanied by precipitation, will be a focus for
fire weather concern across the Southern Plains on Day 3/Wednesday
and to a lesser extent in the Southeast on Day 4/Thursday. Dry
return flow events are possible across the Southern Plains that
could be of impact given expected minimal to no precipitation across
the region through this week. 

...Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday...
A dry cold front will sweep into the Southern Plains on Day
3/Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough envelopes the eastern
U.S. Gusty north winds will enhance wildfire risk but limited RH
reductions, cloud cover and cooler temperatures should limit a more
significant fire weather threat. A rapid return to dry,
southwesterly flow across the Southern Plains is likely on Day
4/Thursday as a nascent lee trough deepens across the Great Plains
where 40% critical probabilities have been added to the TX Panhandle
area. Farther east, steady post-frontal winds across the Southeast
are likely on Day 5/Thursday, but uncertainty in some distribution
of rainfall associated with the front along with much colder
temperatures filtering into the region could limit a greater fire
weather potential for Thursday. Increasing north-northwesterly flow
aloft associated with the next approaching mid-level short wave into
the Northern Plains should overspread much of the central/northern
High Plains on Day 5/Friday. Another  southward moving cold front
under the deepening mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest should
bring additional fire weather concerns to portions of the Southern
Plains. The most likely area for alignment for dry, gusty north
winds and sufficiently dry fuels should be portions of the TX
Panhandle and western OK Friday afternoon where critical
probabilities have been introduced.

..Williams.. 01/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...