WW 372 SEVERE TSTM OK 220320Z - 221100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Much of Oklahoma
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1020 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A severe squall line will move southeast into the Watch
area tonight. Scattered severe gusts 60 to 80 mph are possible with
the more intense portions of the squall line. A couple of the
stronger mesovortices within the squall line may be accompanied by a
localized risk for more intense gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or
two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles east southeast
of Muskogee OK to 15 miles north of Altus OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365...WW 366...WW
367...WW 368...WW 370...WW 371...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
31035.
...Smith
WW 371 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 220215Z - 220800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
915 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Oklahoma Panhandle
Far Northeast Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 915 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A linear cluster of severe thunderstorms is expected to
move southeast into the Watch area late this evening. Severe gusts
associated with outflow from the stronger thunderstorm cores will be
capable of severe gusts (60 to 75 mph). Large hail is also possible
with any storms that may develop on the western flank of the outflow
later tonight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles west northwest of
Liberal KS to 85 miles southeast of Guymon OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365...WW 366...WW
367...WW 368...WW 369...WW 370...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
31035.
...Smith
WW 370 TORNADO IN KY 220115Z - 220600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
915 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Indiana
Central and Northern Kentucky
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 915 PM
until 200 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A broken cluster of supercells and line segments are
expected to move into the Watch area from the west this evening. A
couple of tornadoes are possible with the more intense
thunderstorms. Scattered damaging straight-line winds will also
probably accompany the more intense cells and embedded
bows/inflections within the cluster of thunderstorms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Louisville KY to 50
miles northeast of Lexington KY. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 363...WW 364...WW
365...WW 366...WW 367...WW 368...WW 369...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 27030.
...Smith
WW 368 SEVERE TSTM OK 220015Z - 220700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
715 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest into North-Central Oklahoma
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 715 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered supercells this evening will yield a
risk for large to very large hail. Additional thunderstorms will
move southeast into the watch later this evening posing a risk for
damaging winds in the 60-80 mph range.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west southwest
of Alva OK to 15 miles south of Ponca City OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 363...WW 364...WW
365...WW 366...WW 367...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
31015.
...Smith
WW 367 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 212305Z - 220600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
605 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Colorado
Southwest into Central Kansas
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 605 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forecast to move southeast into
the Watch area this evening with a mix of severe cells and linear
clusters. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary severe
hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. The severe-wind risk will
likely become more prevalent towards the early to mid evening as
upscale growth occurs over southwest Kansas. Severe gusts 60 to 80
mph are possible with the stronger storms and outflow surges.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west southwest
of Lamar CO to 50 miles south southeast of Russell KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 363...WW 364...WW
365...WW 366...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
31035.
...Smith
WW 366 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 212240Z - 220600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
540 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Arkansas
Southeast Kansas
Southern Missouri
Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 540 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to
develop this evening with the stronger thunderstorms likely posing a
severe risk. A few supercells will initially pose a risk for large
hail and perhaps a tornado. Additional storms and consolidating
outflow will lead to a greater severe-wind threat with time this
evening. Severe gusts 60 to 70 mph capable of wind damage will
become the primary hazard towards the late evening as this activity
gradually pushes south and east.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles west northwest
of Bartlesville OK to 45 miles northeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 363...WW 364...WW 365...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Smith
WW 365 TORNADO IN 212145Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
545 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Southern Indiana
* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 545 PM until Midnight EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms with embedded supercells
will likely move east into the Watch area this evening. A couple of
supercells will pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility
of a strong tornado. In addition to the tornado threat, scattered
severe gusts 60 to 70 mph are possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Bloomington IN to 60
miles southeast of Indianapolis IN. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 363...WW 364...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Smith
WW 0372 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0372 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0371 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0371 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0370 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0370 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0369 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0369 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0368 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0368 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0367 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0365 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0365 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0364 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 364
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S AIA TO
35 WSW MHN TO 35 WNW VTN.
..SQUITIERI..06/21/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 364
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-073-095-115-121-125-220040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
YUMA
KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-220040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN
NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN
SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
NEC005-029-031-049-057-063-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-117-135-
145-171-220040-
WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSE STL TO
20 SSW DNV.
..LYONS..06/21/26
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 363
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051-055-059-065-
077-079-081-101-119-121-133-139-145-157-159-163-165-173-185-189-
191-193-199-212240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CLARK CLAY
CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD
CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR
EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
LAWRENCE MADISON MARION
MONROE MOULTRIE PERRY
RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR
SALINE SHELBY WABASH
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
INC051-083-125-129-153-167-212240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MD 1247 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Areas affected...portions of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366...
Valid 220436Z - 220600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366
continues.
SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across the region have remained
below severe limits this evening and are not likely to intensify
further. As such, portions or all of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #366
can be canceled early.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of
south-central Missouri this evening. Despite what appears to be a
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment (MUCAPE between
2000-3000 J/kg and effective-layer shear on the order of 40 knots,
these thunderstorms have struggled to intensify this evening. This
may be a subtle consequence of the ongoing MCV-aided convection
farther east.
With the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of a focused low-level
or large-scale forcing mechanism, the expectation is for ongoing
thunderstorms to remain below severe limits. As such portions, or
perhaps all, of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #366 can be canceled
before expiration at 06Z/01 AM CDT.
..Marsh.. 06/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 37219494 37609280 37519087 36928957 36388980 35979111
35999251 36149388 36589485 36859504 37219494
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1246 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372... FOR NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Areas affected...northwest into central OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372...
Valid 220434Z - 220630Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372
continues.
SUMMARY...An intense bow echo and rear inflow jet will be capable of
80-100 mph gusts, potentially as far southeast as the OKC metro.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature and intense bow echo and
associated rear inflow jet over northwest OK late this evening. The
airmass ahead of this is very unstable with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Ample mid to high-level northwesterly flow and a very moisture-rich
boundary layer will favor further intensification and maintenance of
this bow echo southeastward into central OK. Recent HRRR models
runs are congruent with this overall convective evolution. Peak
gusts of 80-100 mph are forecast with the bow echo. Mesovortices
within the line will also focus intense wind swaths and perhaps
yield a brief tornado or two.
..Smith.. 06/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
LAT...LON 35509847 36219958 36489909 36919883 36339754 35949724
35499747 35399789 35509847
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 1245 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 365...370... FOR FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Areas affected...far southern Indiana into portions of northern
Kentucky
Concerning...Tornado Watch 365...370...
Valid 220421Z - 220615Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 365, 370 continues.
SUMMARY...A trio of supercell thunderstorms continue to move east
across the area. The overall environment will support a continued
severe threat, including tornadoes, in the near term, with a gradual
decrease in tornado potential as they storms move east into an
increasingly unfavorable environment.
DISCUSSION...A trio of supercells continue across the region,
including one supercell with a confirmed tornado near Boonville, IN,
around 1044 PM CDT. This tornado occurred with the western most
supercell in an environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3 km
SRH around 450 m2/s2 (per KVXW VAD).
These supercells will move east through the night on the southern
periphery of a remnant MCV moving across Indiana into Ohio. As they
moves east, they should move into an increasingly stable atmosphere
owing to widespread stratiform rain from earlier convection
(objectively analyzed MLCAPE falls to less than 250 J/kg across
eastern portions of northern Kentucky).
Thus, given the ongoing supercells, the tornado threat will continue
in the near term, especially across portions of southwest Indiana
along and adjacent portions of northern Kentucky. Isolated large
hail to around 1" may be possible, along with gusty thunderstorm
winds. However, as the supercells move farther east and into a more
stable environment, the overall tornado/severe threat should
diminish with time.
..Marsh.. 06/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...PAH...
LAT...LON 37888798 38218745 38328612 38268506 38228442 38078404
37848399 37708519 37648637 37718731 37888798
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1244 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371...372... FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Areas affected...much of Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371...372...
Valid 220338Z - 220545Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371, 372
continues.
SUMMARY...An complex of thunderstorms should move across much of
Oklahoma tonight. The main threat will be damaging thunderstorm
winds, but a few large hail stones will be possible within the most
intense thunderstorms. A tornado or two may be possible along the
gust front.
DISCUSSION...An organized MCS is currently moving southeast across
southwest Kansas. Recent infrared satellite imagery and 10-kilometer
CAPPI imagery indicates increased cooling of cloud tops suggesting
intensification of updrafts associated with this MCS. The MCS will
move into Oklahoma within the next 1-2 hours.
The environment ahead of this MCS across Oklahoma is very to
extremely unstable with MUCAPE values ranging from 3000 J/kg to in
excess of 4000 J/kg. Strong effective-layer shear on the order of 40
knots should maintain thunderstorm intensity and organization as the
thunderstorm complex moves across Oklahoma.
The airmass ahead of the MCS will not cool significantly before the
MCS arrival. Surface temperatures in the upper 70Fs to low 80Fs (and
dewpoint temperatures in the low 70Fs) will result in a rich theta-e
environment that should maintain a strong temperature gradient from
MCS cold pool into the ambient environment. As this gradient
maximizes tonight, the damaging wind threat should peak across
portions of Oklahoma.
Given the degree of instability and steep mid-level lapse rates,
large hail will be possible with the individual thunderstorm cores
within the MCS. Additionally, although the low-level wind field is
not particularly strong this evening across Oklahoma, current KTLX
VAD profile indicates enough low-level veering-with-height to
support nearly 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 kilometer SRH and the KVNX VAD
profile showing nearly 230 m2/s2 0-1 kilometer SRH, both of which
suggest the potential for a tornado or two along the leading edge of
the gust front, particularly where low-level updrafts can interact
with it.
..Marsh/Smith.. 06/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35329991 35999858 36479642 36119507 35619486 34929481
34569507 34089581 33969743 34439946 35329991
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
KS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK...
...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (possibly strong) and damaging winds remain possible this
evening into parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. A swath of
severe gusts (possibly greater than 75 mph) appears possible later
tonight from southwest Kansas into central Oklahoma.
...Mid MS Valley into the Ohio Valley...
An MCV moving across IN will eventually encounter weaker low-level
moisture and instability with eastward extent. However, a long-lived
storm cluster may continue eastward toward parts of southwest OH and
eastern KY, before a definitive weakening trend occurs. Damaging
wind and embedded tornadoes will remain possible with the primary
storm cluster until weakening occurs. Semi-discrete cells and small
clusters trailing the MCV will also continue to pose a threat of
tornadoes (possibly strong) and damaging winds through the evening,
within a moist and favorably sheared environment. See MCD 1237 for
more information.
...Central High Plains into OK and southern MO...
Widely scattered storm development is underway near a surface
boundary draped from northwest OK into southeast KS/southwest MO.
While large-scale forcing is generally modest at best, MLCAPE of
2500-4000 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt are conditionally quite
favorable for organized storms. A few supercells may persist along
the front through the evening, with a threat of large to very large
hail and localized severe gusts. Also, while low-level flow is weak,
vorticity and backed surface winds near the boundary could support
some tornado potential, if a robust supercell can become
established.
Farther northwest, a supercell cluster is ongoing across western KS
this evening. This cluster will continue to pose a threat of large
to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado through the
evening. See MCD 1239 for more information regarding the short-term
threat.
Short-term guidance (notably the HRRR and RRFS) suggests that this
cluster will continue to grow upscale, and potentially evolve into
an MCS that will move southeastward across southwest KS into
northwest and central OK, with threat of severe gusts (potentially
above 75 mph) through the overnight hours. This evolution appears
plausible, if evening convection across northwest OK is not too
disruptive to the environment. Given the very favorable midlevel
lapse rates on the 00Z DDC and OUN soundings, rich moisture, and
strong instability and deep-layer shear, a 30%/CIG1 wind area was
added from southwest KS into central OK.
..Dean.. 06/22/2026
| 
