WW 4 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 251650Z - 260000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 4
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Alabama
Western Florida Panhandle
Southwest Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1050 AM until
600 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a cold front over
western Alabama. This activity will spread eastward through the
afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
either side of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL
to 25 miles north northeast of Moultrie GA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25040.
...Hart
WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MAI TO
45 S MCN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063.
..GRAMS..01/25/26
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC013-063-252240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN JACKSON
GAC007-071-087-095-131-201-205-253-277-287-321-252240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER COLQUITT DECATUR
DOUGHERTY GRADY MILLER
MITCHELL SEMINOLE TIFT
TURNER WORTH
GMZ735-252240-
CW
MD 0064 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...northeast Pennsylvania and southeast New York into
New England
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 252102Z - 260100Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue from northeast Pennsylvania to
New England this afternoon and into the evening.
DISCUSSION...Widespread heavy snow is ongoing across the the
Northeast and will continue into the evening. Numerous 6 hour
snowfall amounts of 8-9 inches have been received from Long Island
to Connecticut, supporting a mean snowfall rate of 1.5 inches per
hour. Given radar intensity trends, much of this likely came in the
last 3-4 hours, suggesting snowfall rates near 2 inches per hour are
likely ongoing. Expect these extreme rates to continue for another 3
to 4 hours from Connecticut to Massachusetts as frontogenesis
continues northeastward across New England. Thereafter, continued
heavy snow around 1 inch per hour may continue through the evening
as the deformation band pivots across the region.
..Bentley.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 41236997 41087139 41117322 41007414 40957456 41077581
41287597 41667582 42487471 43257398 43507306 43687185
43747061 43717017 43577015 42987054 42587054 42437075
42207064 42137039 42137008 42006986 41806976 41526988
41236997
MD 0062 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...western North Carolina and southwest Virginia
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 252027Z - 252330Z
SUMMARY...Mostly freezing rain with some sleet expected this
afternoon into the early evening.
DISCUSSION...Temperatures remain in the upper teens to low 20s in
the lee of the Appalachians this afternoon in the well-established
wedge front. Some modification of this airmass has occurred and
thus, forecast soundings appear more favorable for freezing rain
than sleet this afternoon into this evening. Therefore, expect some
additional ice accumulation over the next 3 to 4 hours as a
stratiform precipitation shield expands across western North
Carolina and southwest Virginia. Ice accretion rates of 0.1 inch per
hour are likely where freezing rain falls.
..Bentley.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 37017851 36297852 35577910 34907998 34888076 35088170
35418257 35678247 36108170 36628150 36948146 37388131
37728120 37868110 38017988 37677913 37017851
MD 0061 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY INTO LONG ISLAND.
Mesoscale Discussion 0061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...Northern Virginia...Eastern West
Virginia...Southern Pennsylvania...Maryland...Delaware...and New
Jersey into Long Island.
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 252002Z - 260000Z
SUMMARY...Sleet continues this afternoon. A brief period of freezing
rain is possible by early evening.
DISCUSSION...Moderate sleet continues from northern Virginia/eastern
West Virginia to Long Island. As expected, the sleet/snow line has
advanced north with sleet now reported in New York City and Long
Island. From this area and to the southwest, an expansive area of
sleet continues.
While some guidance precipitation algorithms (such as the HRRR)
indicate there may be some freezing rain and ice accretion later
this afternoon, confidence in additional icing is low. Forecast
soundings where the freezing rain is depicted still show boundary
layer temperatures of -10C. Despite it being relatively shallow, it
may remain sufficient for refreezing to sleet. By the time the
profiles look more supportive for freezing rain, precipitation is
coming to an end. Therefore, some pockets of additional icing of 0.1
to 0.2" are possible, but the majority of the precipitation this
afternoon and into the early evening will likely fall as sleet.
In the wake of the primary precipitation shield, forecast soundings
show residual low-level moisture which could result in some freezing
drizzle later this evening.
..Bentley.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39658006 40167843 40397649 40907442 40927382 40947287
40627298 40447382 40067397 39647410 39147450 38497539
38197695 38027847 38157974 38588031 39658006
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Southeast
states this afternoon, with damaging gusts and a few tornadoes
possible mainly across southern Georgia and northern Florida.
...20z Update...
A northeast/southwest-oriented quasi-linear band of convection with
embedded bows and occasional transient circulations continues to
progress eastward at mid-afternoon across southwest Georgia, extreme
southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Scenario will remain
favorable, particularly over the next several hours (through late
afternoon) for damaging winds and a tornado risk across
southwest/toward south-central Georgia as well as nearby north
Florida, especially near a surface wave and along/south of a
northward-shifting warm front. Latest WSR-88D VWP data from
Tallahassee continues to imply 250+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH, while
middle/upper 60s F surface dewpoints, with a few 70F observations,
are becoming more common within the inland-expanding warm sector.
..Guyer.. 01/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026/
...AL/GA/FL...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough and associated 100kt jet over AR. This feature will track
rapidly eastward across the TN Valley today, with large scale
forcing overspreading the Gulf Coast states. This will aid in the
development of robust thunderstorms along the cold front now
extending from central AL into southeast LA. Ahead of the front,
southerly surface winds will transport Gulf moisture northward and
result in weak but sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few
severe storms. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for a few
tornadoes if semi-discrete structures can form along/ahead of the
developing QLCS. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts are the
main concern. Refer to MCD #0057 for further details.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing in the East and ridging in the West will be
maintained on Tuesday. This pattern will reinforce cold, dry, and
stable surface conditions across the CONUS. Thunderstorm development
is unlikely.
..Wendt.. 01/25/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook. Antecedent rainfall
and residual snowpack along with cold temperatures as surface high
pressure moves into the Southern Plains will mitigate fire weather
concerns across much of CONUS Monday. Drier, post-frontal
north-northwest winds of 10-15 mph along with RH dropping to 30-35%
concentrated across the central FL Panhandle could yield a brief but
localized fire weather threat Monday afternoon and evening, although
cooler temperatures behind the front and at least some light
preceding rainfall should limit broader fire weather concerns.
..Williams.. 01/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be low on D2/Monday across the CONUS.
Heights will steadily rise across the central US with continued
widespread precipitation into the northeastern US. Overall, recent
precipitation and continued cold temperatures will continue to
mitigate any potential fire risk.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A prevailing upper-level troughing pattern is expected to encompass
the eastern U.S. through the weekend. Surface high pressure across
the east and residual snowpack should keep cold temperatures and
relatively light winds in place through early next week. Upper-level
ridging across the western U.S. should support temperatures above
seasonal normals and mostly dry conditions across much of the
region, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest where
southwesterly flow brings a persistent influx of Pacific moisture
and precipitation through the week.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Florida...
A dry, post-frontal air mass should be in place across the FL
Peninsula on Day 3/Tuesday. Some precipitation associated with the
initial frontal passage on Day 2/Monday could briefly mitigate fire
weather concerns but probabilities of a wetting rainfall remain low
across central FL. The breezy north winds and dry conditions should
align with dry and drought stressed fuels to increase fire weather
concerns. A 40 percent critical probability area was introduced
where minimal rainfall is expected across the central/southwest
coastal portions of the FL Peninsula. Lingering dry conditions are
expected across FL through the week as surface high pressure
meanders across the Southeast with another potential dry cold front
by the weekend.
...Central High Plains...
Northwesterly flow aloft and lee surface troughing east of the
Rockies should support a relatively drier and warmer downslope
regime across the central High Plains at times through the weekend.
Fire weather concerns could increase closer to Day 7/Saturday as an
embedded mid-level short wave within increasing northwesterly flow
aloft reaches the southern Rockies, although uncertainty remains
high in timing of this next feature.
..Williams.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
| 
