Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Georgia to
the coastal Carolinas. Locally strong thunderstorms may occur across
parts of coastal/eastern North Carolina this afternoon, but greater
severe potential should tend to remain offshore.

...Coastal/Eastern North Carolina...
Mid/upper-level troughing will progress eastward today across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The southern portion of this trough and
related modest large-scale ascent will overspread parts of the
coastal Southeast states by this afternoon. Isolated convection
appears possible along/south of an advancing cold front from
southeast GA to the coastal Carolinas. A stronger thunderstorm or
two may occur across coastal/eastern NC around 19-22Z, as somewhat
greater instability, low-level convergence along the front, and
modest ascent ahead of the upper trough should exist across this
area. While 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support
organized updrafts, current indications are that more robust
thunderstorm development should tend to remain just offshore the NC
Coast. Have therefore refrained from including low hail/wind
probabilities across this area, but trends will be monitored.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/23/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

Much of the Elevated area was refined to account for the footprint
of recent precipitation across portions of South Carolina and
Georgia. The strong cold front and resultant associated downslope
flow over the lee side of the southern Appalachians required
expansion of the Elevated area farther west into portions of
northern Georgia as well. Higher recent rainfall accumulation to the
south of this area (where some of the windiest conditions are
expected) may allow for locally elevated conditions this evening as
the front passes.

..Stearns.. 03/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will modestly amplify in the Northeast today.
A cold front will push southward through the southern Appalachians.
Farther west, a weak lee trough will help to enhance surface winds
on the western flank of a surface high.

...Piedmont...
Dry, downslope winds off of the southern Appalachians will promote
elevated fire weather this afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will be
possible in the lee of the terrain. RH is not as certain, but 25-30%
appears probable. Values closer to 20% may occur locally.

...Central Plains...
An enhanced surface pressure gradient will develop as a weak lee
trough deepens on the westerly flank of a seasonably strong surface
high in the Upper Midwest. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible.
How low RH will drop during the afternoon is the biggest uncertainty
in this scenario. Copious mid/high-level cloud cover is expected.
Most guidance suggests RH will be only marginally below elevated
criteria. Furthermore, the strongest winds may be slightly displaced
from the lowest RH. Overall, locally elevated conditions are
expected given dry fuels, but broad, sustained elevated conditions
are much less certain.

...Southwest into central High Plains...
Very dry conditions will exist from the Southwest into southeast
Colorado. RH of 10-20% is expected by the afternoon. Winds in most
locations will be relatively weak. Terrain-enhanced wind could reach
up to 20 mph. Locally elevated to near critical conditions could
occur.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...