Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN UTAH
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...WESTERN WYOMING...AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Severe wind
gusts are the primary hazard.

... Synopsis ...

An amplified, yet progressive, midlevel pattern will exist across
the US on Wednesday. A vigorous shortwave trough will move east
across the northern Rockies as a Mexico-to-Canada midlevel ridge
moves into the central US. Downstream from the ridge, an amplified 
trough will deepen further, developing into a closed low over the
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England region.


... Portions of the Great Basin and the Central and Northern Rockies
...

As the potent midlevel shortwave trough moves across the northern
Rockies an attendant 80-90 knot midlevel jet streak will overspread
northern portions of the area during the afternoon and evening
hours. At the same time, a cold front will push east across the
region leading to scattered convection by mid-to-late afternoon.
Forecast soundings continue to exhibit inverted-V thermodynamic
profiles and increasing cloud-layer shear. The result will be fast
moving storms capable of transporting momentum downward to the
surface. Additionally, the dry sub-cloud layer will support the
potential for some dry microburst potential.


... Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians ...

A surface low will move east from Lower Michigan toward northern New
York, dragging a cold front eastward across the Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians before ending up near the Atlantic Coast.
Toward the end of the forecast period, the northern New York surface
low will redevelop farther southeast along the front near the
Atlantic Coast.

Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints should rise into
low-to-mid-50Fs contributing to weak instability with diurnal
heating. Thunderstorms should develop across the area during the
afternoon along the front, with additional thunderstorms possible
across terrain favored areas across the central Appalachians.
Sufficient vertical shear beneath a 50 knot midlevel jet and modest
low-level lapse rates would support a marginal wind threat.


... Texas Panhandle into the High Plains of Southern Colorado ...

Strong diurnal heating beneath the midlevel ridge may be sufficient
for convective inhibition to erode and isolated thunderstorms to
develop across terrain favored areas. Very steep lapse rates will
support a hail and wind threat.

..Marsh/Weinman.. 05/13/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more
isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri
Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move into the upper Mississippi
Valley and Ozarks on Thursday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much
of the eastern half of Kansas. During the day, the airmass will
become moderately unstable as surface temperatures warm. In the
afternoon, low-level convergence will increase along a dryline in
southern and central Kansas supporting scattered thunderstorm
development. A few storms are expected to increase in intensity and
move eastward across central and eastern Kansas during the late
afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range,
0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rate near 8 C/km
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of
greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with any supercell that
can become intense. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible. The storms are expected to move eastward into the lower
Missouri Valley during the evening and overnight period, and should
gradually increase in coverage as a low-level jet strengthens.
Although the storms are expected to become elevated, instability and
effective shear are forecast to be strong enough for a continued
isolated severe threat.

...Southern High Plains...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern High
Plains on Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near this trough over parts of west Texas Thursday afternoon. Nearly
dry adiabatic lapse rates are evident on forecast soundings. This
environment should support isolated severe wind gusts, as a few of
the developing cells mix the stronger flow down to the surface
during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Friday in parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys...
Mid-level flow will be westerly over the central U.S. on Friday.
Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the central Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture
advection will result in a pocket of moist air from the central
Plains eastward into the lower Missouri Valley, where surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F. Within this
moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by
afternoon. A dryline is forecast to develop on the western edge of
the low-level moisture, from north-central Oklahoma into central
Kansas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to
the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening.
Additional storms are expected to form further east into eastern
Kansas and Missouri, along the northern edge of a low-level jet.

Late Friday afternoon, forecast soundings in the Kansas City area
show a favorable thermodynamic environment for severe storms. MLCAPE
is forecast to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and wind damage. An isolated severe
threat may also develop eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and
southwestward into north-central Oklahoma. Instability is expected
to be somewhat weaker in these two areas, which should keep any
severe threat more isolated and marginal.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026