Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF DELAWARE...ADJACENT
EASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather, may impact parts of the northern Mid Atlantic
this afternoon.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, which may have reached
peak amplitude across the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies
through much of the Canadian Prairies, a number of digging short
wave perturbations are forecast to contribute to the evolution of a
more prominent, positively tilted mid-level trough.  This may
encompass most areas near and east of the Mississippi River through
the Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Friday.

One leading short wave trough is generally forecast to turn east and
northeast of the Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau through the northern
Mid Atlantic by late this afternoon, before undergoing considerable
deformation as it progresses farther to the northeast.  It appears
that this may be accompanied by an initially modest surface cyclone,
which may undergo notable deepening during the day while
redeveloping to the east-northeast of the Blue Ridge, before
occluding across the northern Mid Atlantic this evening.

...Northern Mid Atlantic...
Low-level moisture return inland of the coast appears likely to be
rather limited.  However, boundary-layer dew points increasing
through the lower/mid 50s F, within a corridor along a warm frontal
zone to the east of the surface low, may be sufficient to yield
mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 500 J/kg when coupled with mid-level
cooling (including 500 mb temperatures of -20 to -22 C).  Based on
forecast soundings, this may include buoyancy rooted near and just
off the surface, as low-level lapse rates steepen beneath the cold
air and boundary-layer humidity remains relatively high along the
frontal zone.  Although low-level hodographs might not become more
than modestly large, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear,
it appears at least possible that the environment could become
conducive to the evolution of one or two supercell structures posing
some risk for a tornado.  Otherwise, stronger cells this afternoon
may be accompanied by small to perhaps marginally severe hail and
locally strong surface gusts, before weakening by evening.

..Kerr/Chalmers.. 11/12/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Friday and
Friday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will remain over the eastern U.S.
on Friday, as another upper-level trough moves into the western U.S.
Ahead of this second trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will be possible within very weak instability in parts of the Desert
Southwest and southern High Plains. Additional storms will be
possible along and just inland from the northern California and
Oregon coasts. A few strong wind gusts will be possible, but no
appreciable severe threat is expected due to the limited
instability. Elsewhere across the continental U.S. thunderstorms are
not forecast Friday and Friday night.

..Broyles.. 11/12/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Saturday and
Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Desert Southwest on Saturday and into the southern Plains Saturday
night. Thunderstorms will be possible near the trough during the day
from the Four Corners southeastward into the southern Rockies. As
the trough moves into the southern Plains Saturday night,
thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of west and
central Texas. If the ECMWF solution pans out, which is much faster
and further south, increasing low-level moisture and instability
during the overnight period could be enough for a few strong storms
in the Texas Hill Country. If later models runs validate the ECMWF
solution, a Marginal may need to be considered for parts of
west-central and central Texas, mainly for Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 11/12/2026