Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
West, a midlevel trough will continue eastward from the northern
Plains into the upper MS Valley tonight. Ahead of this feature,
isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are evolving
eastward across northern ND -- in the vicinity of an eastward-moving
surface trough/front. Despite limited buoyancy, a deeply mixed
boundary layer could favor a couple strong wind gusts before the
boundary layer nocturnally cools/stabilizes. See MCD #707 for more
details. Farther east, a strong low-level jet and related warm
advection preceding the midlevel trough will promote isolated
elevated thunderstorms across the upper MS Valley into the upper
Midwest overnight. Weak instability will preclude severe storms. 

...Central Gulf Coast and Southeast...
Isolated thunderstorms will spread/develop eastward along an
west/east-oriented diffuse cold front extending from the central
Gulf Coast into northern FL tonight. This activity will remain north
of the moderately unstable air mass over the Gulf. Across parts of
the eastern and southern FL Peninsula, a few thunderstorms will
continue through around 03Z along lingering outflow boundaries.
While locally strong gusts and small hail are possible, the overall
severe threat appears low.

..Weinman/Worster.. 05/12/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough will move into the northwestern U.S. on
Day 3/Wednesday while an amplifying upper trough and corresponding
surface low move into the Northeast. A deep lee surface trough
evolves across the northern and central High Plains in response to a
mid-level wave ejecting into the northern Plains on Wednesday,
bringing enhanced downslope westerly flow to the central and
southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday. Fire weather concerns
continue across portions of the Northern Plains Day 5/Friday as dry,
northwest flow in the wake of a cold front impacts the region. The
active wave pattern across the northern CONUS with deeper boundary
layer moisture in place could support more widespread and much
needed rainfall across the Upper Midwest beginning Day 5/Friday and
over the weekend. 

...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
...Eastern Great Basin into Upper/Lower Colorado River Basin...
A robust mid-level wave will push through the Pacific Northwest Day
3/Wednesday. Stronger southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough and
resultant deepening surface troughing across the northern Great
Basin is expected to bring fire weather concerns to considerable
portions of the Intermountain West. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph
amid low RH and drying fuels under successive days of abnormally
high temperatures should promote a fairly broad fire weather threat
across the eastern Great Basin, northern AZ and CO Plateau.
Increasing mid-level Pacific moisture across the Intermountain West,
arrival of the upper trough into the western U.S. and daytime
instability should allow for high-based convection along higher
terrain of the Upper CO River Basin, Four Corners and into western
NM where more receptive fuels reside. Both critical probability
areas for impactful dry and breezy conditions and dry thunderstorms
were expanded across this region.

...Upper Snake River Plain and Southwest Montana...
Southwest winds of 20-25 mph across eastern ID, with terrain
enhanced winds closer 30-45 mph (with higher gusts) in southwest MT
are expected Day 3/Wednesday as the sharp upper trough and
associated mid-level jet shifts overhead. Dry boundary layer
conditions amid a drying fuelscape combined with the stronger
southwest flow will enhance fire weather concerns across the Upper
Snake River Plain and southwest MT, where 40% critical probabilities
have been introduced.

...Northern Montana...
Fuels remain quite receptive across northern MT where delayed green
up has been noted. A rapidly evolving lee low in the southern
Canadian Prairies will promote a dry return flow pattern across the
northern High Plains where 40% critical probabilities were
maintained. Fast moving, high based showers and thunderstorms are
expected across central and northern MT Wednesday afternoon as broad
ascent materializes ahead of the pronounced short wave trough across
the Pacific Northwest. Limited precipitation with fast moving
thunderstorms could bring a few ignitions to northern MT where fuels
are more receptive, where a 10% dry thunderstorm probability area
was warranted. Strong westerly winds behind a cold front could
impact holdover ignitions on Day 4/Thursday where 40% critical
probabilities were introduced across southeastern MT into portions
of western ND/SD.

...Day 5/Friday - Northern Plains...
Fire weather concerns may linger across portions of the Northern
Plains on Day 5/Friday with dry, post-frontal west/northwest flow in
place, but forecast uncertainty remains precluding introduction of
critical probabilities at this time.

..Williams.. 05/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...