Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today.

...Southern Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows the upper ridge that has dominated
the weather over the southwest states is rapidly breaking down, as a
strong upper trough over OR approaches the Rockies.  Large-scale
height falls and increasing low-level warm/moist advection will
result in marginal instability over TX and the development of
scattered thunderstorms later today.

Convection has already begun to form over the Big Bend region of TX
this morning.  Thunderstorms will further develop over west TX
through early afternoon, then expand eastward into parts of OK and
central TX this evening.  Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
will be present over the central/southern Plains, but limited
moisture return will generally keep CAPE values below 1000 J/kg and
limit updraft strength/severe potential.  Nevertheless, the
strongest storms this evening could produce small hail.

..Hart/Dean.. 11/28/2025

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the central and southern
Rockies as a broader upper trough overspreads the northeast on
Sunday. As a surface low rapidly ejects toward the Northeast
Atlantic coastline, surface high pressure will overspread much of
the Interior West and most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Static
stability with the high pressure should limit thunderstorm
development over most areas. The best chance for any thunderstorm
development will be along the Gulf Coast ahead of a surface cold
front early Sunday. Before the front moves offshore, near 60 F
surface dewpoints along the coast will promote marginal buoyancy,
which will support thunderstorm development along the front given
low-level convergence.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through
next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure
overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much
of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm
development over most locales. However, a couple instances of
surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this
upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as
seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath
deep-layer ascent.

A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday,
with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front
(assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of
surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may
also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible.
Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface
lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the
withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.