Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the
Florida Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

...Florida Panhandle/Far Southern Alabama...
A nearly stationary surface front will reside across the Southeast
today, with a very moist airmass (total PWAT values of 2+ inches)
persisting along and to its south. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
will continue to develop south of the front this afternoon,
including across the northern Gulf. It is still possible that a weak
offshore surface low may form later today, with modest enhancement
to the low-level flow and effective SRH near a weak boundary draped
along or just offshore the FL Panhandle and far southern AL. Should
this occur, convection may have the potential to exhibit transient
low-level circulations mainly near the coast, with related
waterspout/brief tornado potential. However, the severe threat will
likely be constrained by poor lapse rates/weak instability, with
some guidance (namely recent RAP runs) suggesting that the modest
increase in low-level flow may not occur.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 10/04/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the
Florida Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026/

...Florida Panhandle/Far Southern Alabama...
A nearly stationary surface front will reside across the Southeast
today, with a very moist airmass (total PWAT values of 2+ inches)
persisting along and to its south. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
will continue to develop south of the front this afternoon,
including across the northern Gulf. It is still possible that a weak
offshore surface low may form later today, with modest enhancement
to the low-level flow and effective SRH near a weak boundary draped
along or just offshore the FL Panhandle and far southern AL. Should
this occur, convection may have the potential to exhibit transient
low-level circulations mainly near the coast, with related
waterspout/brief tornado potential. However, the severe threat will
likely be constrained by poor lapse rates/weak instability, with
some guidance (namely recent RAP runs) suggesting that the modest
increase in low-level flow may not occur.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the eastern Great Lakes and St Lawrence Valley is
forecast to intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast States
and offshore Monday. In the wake of the upper low, northwest flow is
forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak
shortwave trough will traverse the northern Great Basin on the
periphery of ridging over the Southwest.

At the surface, a cold front will continue to sag southward across
the Gulf Coast with high pressure intensifying behind it over the
Midwest. Stable conditions are forecast for much of the central and
eastern States. Substantial low-level moisture and instability will
be confined to the Gulf Coast and much of FL near the front.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible, though poor lapse rates and
little overlap with favorable deep-layer shear suggest severe
potential is unlikely.

Occasional lightning is possible over the northern Great Basin and
central Rockies ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough.
Instability will be weak, but steep mid-level lapse rates could
promote some gusty surface winds with high-based
showers/thunderstorms.

..Lyons.. 10/04/2026