Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern, and an associated surface
high pressure system will be in place today over the central and
eastern U.S. Dry and cool conditions will be in place over much of
the nation, and thunderstorms will be unlikely. The exceptions will
be over south Florida and in the Desert Southwest where scattered
thunderstorms will be possible from today into tonight. No severe
threat is expected across the continental U.S. through daybreak on
Monday.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/18/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Monday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander off of the East
Coast while an upper trough amplifies over the western U.S. and an
upper ridge dominates the central CONUS tomorrow (Monday). Surface
high pressure and accompanying subsidence should limit thunderstorm
development over most locales east of the Rockies. A couple of
thunderstorms may develop over the FL Keys given adequate surface
heating of a moist low-level airmass. A few thunderstorms may also
occur over the Desert Southwest to the Four Corners, where cooler
temperatures aloft with a mid-level impulse overspreads modest
low-level moisture.

..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will amplify while progressing into the Interior
West on Tuesday. As this occurs, deep-layer ascent and cooler
temperatures aloft will encourage at least isolated thunderstorm
development over multiple locales. Preceding the main upper trough,
a 500 mb wind maximum accompanying multiple low-amplitude impulses
will overspread low-level moisture over the Desert Southwest, as
well as portions of the Great Basin, resulting in thunderstorms by
Tuesday afternoon. By later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
deep-layer ascent associated with the approach of the primary upper
trough will overspread parts of CA. Cooler temperatures aloft will
overspread a marine boundary layer, encouraging lightning flashes
along the CA shoreline late in the period.

..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026