Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies across
the northern CONUS will continue to track quickly eastward across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Showers
and low-topped thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas will
spread into MN this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain quite
limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 40s), but a pocket of
weak instability should support occasional lightning flashes with
this activity. Convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen this afternoon, but the
overall risk for severe winds is expected to remain low owing to the
minimal instability forecast.

A nearly stationary surface front extending from south/coastal TX
into the Southeast and Carolinas will once again serve as a focus
for thunderstorms this afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist
airmass occurs across these regions. Generally poor lapse rates
aloft and weak deep-layer shear should limit the threat for
organized severe thunderstorms through tonight. A greater
concentration of convection may focus along/near the central Gulf
Coast, as a weak mid/upper-level wave centered over the Bay of
Campeche aids northward low-level moisture transport across this
region through the period. Still, low-level winds should remain
weak, and current expectations are for this convection to be
disorganized.

..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/03/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to thunder to account for recent
trends. Please see previous discussion below.

..Thornton.. 10/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies across
the northern CONUS will continue to track quickly eastward across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Showers
and low-topped thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas will
spread into MN this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain quite
limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 40s), but a pocket of
weak instability should support occasional lightning flashes with
this activity. Convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen this afternoon, but the
overall risk for severe winds is expected to remain low owing to the
minimal instability forecast.

A nearly stationary surface front extending from south/coastal TX
into the Southeast and Carolinas will once again serve as a focus
for thunderstorms this afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist
airmass occurs across these regions. Generally poor lapse rates
aloft and weak deep-layer shear should limit the threat for
organized severe thunderstorms through tonight. A greater
concentration of convection may focus along/near the central Gulf
Coast, as a weak mid/upper-level wave centered over the Bay of
Campeche aids northward low-level moisture transport across this
region through the period. Still, low-level winds should remain
weak, and current expectations are for this convection to be
disorganized.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over southern Canada is forecast to intensify as it
traverses the northern and eastern Great Lakes. A leading shortwave
trough will quickly move from the eastern Lakes into the Northeast,
with an attendant portion of the surface cold front moving quickly
offshore. The remainder of the front will gradually move southward
with cooler temperatures and high pressure developing in its wake
over the central US.

Ahead of the front from east TX, to the Gulf Coast States and far
eastern Atlantic shores, a seasonably warm and very moist air mass
will support modest diurnal destabilization with MLCAPE generally
less than 1000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected through
the day ahead of the front and along typical sea-breeze boundaries.
However, very weak mid-level lapse rates and little deep-layer shear
suggests storm organization will be minimal. While a sporadic wet
microburst is possible with the stronger forecast storm clusters
(near and just offshore southern AL/FL Coasts), severe potential is
expected to remain low.

To the west, shortwave ridging will persist, forcing northwesterly
flow aloft and stable conditions over much of the CONUS. Isolated
thunderstorms may occur over a small part of central/southwest CO
where cooler mid-level temperatures are expected near the higher
terrain. However, minimal instability will limit storm intensity.

..Lyons.. 10/03/2026