No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 14 18:23:01 UTC 2026.MD 1614 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Areas affected...central parts of the Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141820Z - 141945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible through the
afternoon hours with the stronger wet downbursts. The severe threat
should be isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Pulse-cellular storms have increased in coverage over
the last 1-2 hours given strong surface heating (i.e. surface
temperatures exceeding 90 F, with convective temperatures being
breached). As the boundary layer continues to mix/deepen through the
afternoon, additional storms should develop. MLCAPE should exceed
2000 J/kg on a widespread basis, supporting wet downbursts for the
stronger thunderstorms. Given PWATs approaching 2 inches, enough
momentum from water loaded downdrafts may be generated to support a
couple of damaging gusts. Nonetheless, the severe threat should be
very sparse, precluding a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 26898206 28338206 28878193 29198165 29178130 28878096
27658032 27038020 26468038 26218063 26288128 26618179
26898206
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 1613 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT
Mesoscale Discussion 1613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Areas affected...parts of western Maine...northern New Hampshire
and Vermont
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 141815Z - 142015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development appears increasingly
probable across the St. Lawrence Valley through the western New
England international border vicinity by 4-6 PM EDT. These may be
accompanied by large hail and potential to produce tornadoes, in
addition to damaging wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...A mesoscale convective vortex has progressed across the
international border and will continue east-south east of the
Greenville ME vicinity toward Downeast coastal areas this afternoon.
Thunderstorm activity near the vortex has been steadily
dissipating for several hours now, but renewed thunderstorm
development persists along (and to the cool side of) an associated
outflow boundary trailing west-northwestward across southwestern
Quebec.
Some of this upstream activity has shown recent signs of
intensification, mainly near and to the west of the St. Lawrence
Valley, where inflow may be emanating from a moist boundary-layer
with surface dew points near 70F. Still mostly beneath a plume of
warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, this air appears
characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.
Through 20-22Z, model output suggests that the elevated mixed-layer
plume will slowly become suppressed southward across southern Quebec
through the international border vicinity. As it does, there
appears increasing potential for scattered thunderstorms to continue
intensifying along and, perhaps, across the outflow boundary,
becoming increasingly rooted in the unstable boundary-layer. In the
presence of strong deep-layer shear, a few supercell structures may
evolve, accompanied by a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts
and potential for a tornado or two while spreading into and across
the international border vicinity.
..Kerr/Hart.. 07/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
LAT...LON 46007068 45476945 44846913 44367070 45877459 47037437
47087288 46007068
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHERN
VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND MAINE....
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of
northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered
severe winds and isolated hail will also be possible across portions
of Montana.
...New England...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a belt of 80+ knot mid level winds
nosing from eastern Ontario into Quebec, with mid-level height falls
and large-scale forcing spreading into northern New England. This
has been aiding in multiple rounds of intense thunderstorms over
Quebec this morning, but so far this activity has struggled to make
it into the US due to a more stable air mass. This will change
through the day as a moist and moderately unstable air mass advects
eastward into parts of New England ahead of the primary convective
activity. Widespread smoke from upstream fires will also somewhat
limit daytime heating today, although the extent of the cooling is
uncertain.
Present indications are that several convective cells and clusters
will track southeastward across parts of eastern NY, VT/NH and
western ME later this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in
this region show favorable CAPE/shear combinations for supercell
storms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.
Larger bowing clusters may also evolve, with a greater risk of
damaging winds. This activity may persist after midnight with a
continued severe risk.
...MT...
A shortwave trough now over NV and its associated mid-level speed
max will rotate northward into parts of ID/MT this afternoon and
evening, aiding in the development of thunderstorms over the
mountains. Storms are expected to spread northeastward into the
Plains during the evening, with a risk of severe wind gusts in the
strongest storms.
...FL...
Hot and humid conditions will lead to strong afternoon CAPE values
and scattered thunderstorms over the central FL peninsula. Forecast
soundings show slightly enhanced westerly flow around 700mb across
this area, which may aid in occasionally damaging winds in the
stronger cores.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/14/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.
...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast/New England...
To the south of a persistent deep-layer cyclone east of Hudson Bay,
another in a series of mid/upper shortwave troughs is forecast to
move across parts of New England on Wednesday. A cold front (whose
position will be influenced by D1/Tuesday convection) will move
southward across the northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong heating
is expected near/south of the cold front, with temperatures rising
through the 90s F, and approaching 100 F in some areas. Amid this
strong heating, moisture will be sufficient for moderate
destabilization, while rather strong mid/upper-level northwesterly
flow will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized
convection.
While a zone of conditionally favorable environment is expected near
the front, uncertainty remains regarding the coverage (if any) of
diurnal storm development. ARW-based CAMs remain the most aggressive
in developing isolated storms near the front during the afternoon,
with most other guidance remaining muted at best. While confidence
remains rather low, a Marginal Risk has been added for parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic, where the relative greatest signal for
isolated storm development overlaps the most favorable environment.
Locally damaging wind may be the most likely threat, given the hot
conditions and steep low-level lapse rates, though hail cannot be
ruled out, with supercell-favorable shear and sufficient instability
expected to be in place.
Across parts of Maine and vicinity, relatively low-topped convective
showers (perhaps capable of sporadic lightning flashes) may develop
during the afternoon, as the mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across the region. Gusty winds could accompany this convection, due
to the presence of steep low-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced
low-level westerly flow. At this time, convection is expected to
remain too weak and low-topped for an organized severe threat.
Farther west into parts of the Great Lakes, some guidance suggests
potential for very isolated storm development, along the portion of
the front that extends west-northwest from the northern Mid-Atlantic
region. Large-scale ascent currently appears weak to negligible
across this area, but the environment will otherwise be favorable
for a localized damaging-wind threat, with steep low-level lapse
rates, moderate buoyancy, and relatively favorable deep-layer shear.
Severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence
increases in storm development across parts of lower MI/northern OH
or points farther northwest.
...Parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies...
Scattered storms are again expected across parts of western/central
MT and northern WY, in the presence of monsoonal moisture. Increased
cloudiness and somewhat weaker diurnal heating (compared to
D1/Tuesday) may tend to limit a more organized severe threat in the
presence of modest deep-layer flow/shear, though locally strong
storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A few
strong storms may also develop across parts of central/northern OR,
where modestly stronger mid/upper-level flow will overlap the
northern extent of appreciable destabilization.
..Dean.. 07/14/2026
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