Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic States/Cumberland Plateau...
A progressive stream of westerlies will continue to reside over the
northern third of the CONUS through tonight. An extensive
northeast/southwest-oriented cold front will continue
east-southeastward, reaching the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by
this evening, while otherwise crossing the Tennessee Valley and
lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will
accompany the front, while also being common across coastal areas of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast. 

As the cold front approaches the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva later
this evening, semi-strong wind profiles (35+ kt effective shear)
will exist regionally, and to a lesser extent southwestward toward
the Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau. A couple of stronger storms
with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon near/ahead of the
front in these regions provided sufficient insolation/modest
destabilization. However, moist-profile/subsidence-related poor
lapse rates aloft should preclude organized severe storms.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/02/2026