Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild offshore of the
British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while being maintained
across and inland of coastal areas through this period.  Downstream
flow may not change appreciably on the larger-scale, but one broad
embedded cyclonic circulation may redevelop southeast of the
Hudson/James Bay vicinity through central Quebec, while a
consolidating perturbation within another stream digs across the
central/southern Great Plains toward the Southeast.

The latter feature is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing
cold intrusion across the Gulf coast into northwest Gulf Basin by
late Sunday night.  Downstream, a weak low may begin to develop
along the initially stalled/slow moving frontal zone, east of the
Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
Forecast soundings indicate that relatively warm layers aloft will 
continue to hinder potential for deep convective development over
the interior central and southern peninsula Sunday through Sunday
night.  In general, guidance suggests that better coupling of
mid/upper forcing for ascent and higher boundary-layer moisture
content may be confined to areas along/ahead of the front across the
northeastern into central Gulf Basin and offshore western Atlantic.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified
mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across
the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week.  Within the
northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short
wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing
across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional
surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through
the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard.  However, these are not
likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow
emanating from the Gulf Basin.  Regardless, in the wake of a
reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and
through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that
boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive
to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.