Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, much of the CONUS will be too
dry and stable for thunderstorm development today. The front will
continue moving southward along the central/southern FL Peninsula,
where scattered storm development will be possible within a very
moist environment. Poor lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should
limit organized severe potential, though localized strong gusts may
occur. Across the Southwest, sporadic lightning flashes may
accompany weak convection associated with a slow-moving mid/upper
low centered offshore of Baja California.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/17/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will remain over the central U.S. while a 500 mb
cut-off low meanders off of the Atlantic Coast and broad upper
troughing dominates the western CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A
relatively cool and stable low-level airmass will overspread much of
the CONUS, inhibiting thunderstorm development. A few thunderstorms
may occur over the southern FL Peninsula, where the heating of
remnant low-level moisture will promote localized lift and buoyancy.
A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over portions of the
Desert Southwest, where cooler temperatures aloft and modest ascent
will accompany a weak mid-level impulse.

..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander off of the Atlantic
Coast while an upper trough deepens over the Interior West and an
upper ridge remains in place over the central U.S. on Monday. A cool
and/or stable low-level airmass will remain in place over most of
the U.S., limiting thunderstorm development. However, the
amplification of the western upper trough will promote low-level
moisture return beneath cooling temperatures aloft over the Desert
Southwest, increasing the chance for thunderstorms in this area. A
thunderstorm or two may also occur over the far southern FL
Peninsula, in tandem with the heating of some residual low-level
moisture.

..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026