Mesoscale Discussion 2037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...west-central and central
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 598...

Valid 190823Z - 190930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 598
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized severe weather threat may continue beyond the
scheduled 09z/4 am CDT expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 598,
however a new watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue within a generally east-west
oriented zone across northeast KS/west-central and central MO at
0815z, in association with an expanding zone of low-level warm
advection.  Despite episodic stronger updrafts, a trend towards
diminished intensities has been noted since 07z as convective
overturning takes place.  Latest mesoanalysis depicts weak-pockets
of moderate MUCAPE in the vicinity of the storms, suggesting some
potential for an occasional stronger updraft and a localized risk
for strong winds or hail.  Overall, however, the severe threat
should continue to diminish and a new watch is not expected after
the expiration of WW 598 at 09z.

Across central MO, thunderstorm intensity has also decreased as
storms move towards progressively weaker instability, and this trend
is expected to continue.

..Bunting/Mosier.. 08/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39289563 39209362 38819250 38269145 37889131 37609157
            37739244 38369367 38649499 39139553 39289563 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts
and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur
in southern Arizona and in the Southeast.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated speed max will
move southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the
surface, an outflow boundary associated with morning convection will
move southward into southern Missouri by midday. To the north of the
boundary, surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Moderate
instability is expected to develop in areas that are not impacted by
morning outflow. As low-level convergence becomes focused near the
boundary during the late afternoon and early evening, isolated to
scattered convective initiation is expected. From this convection,
thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward across the mid
Mississippi. One or two organized line segments will be possible
during the evening.

Early evening RAP forecast soundings in south-central Missouri,
where the strongest instability is expected, have 0-6 km shear
around 40 knots with precipitable water near 2 inches. MLCAPE is
expected to peak in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range with 0-3 km lapse
rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a severe threat
with supercells and multicell line segments. Severe wind gusts and
hail will be the primary hazards. The severe threat could persist
into the mid to late evening, with storms that are maintained by a
low-level jet that is forecast to strengthen in southeast Missouri.

...Great Plains...
Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place across the Great
Plains today. At the surface, dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will
contribute to moderate destabilization over much of the region.
During the afternoon, isolated storm development will be possible
within the unstable airmass from the lower to mid Missouri Valley
southwestward into the central Plains. A few severe gusts and hail
will be possible but the storms will remain isolated due to limited
large-scale ascent. The greater convective coverage is expected
further south in the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and
northeast New Mexico. Thunderstorms will likely form due to
topographic forcing during the mid to late afternoon and move
east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Ahead of these storms,
RAP forecast soundings at 00Z in the northern Texas Panhandle and
southwest Kansas have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with 0-3 km lapse
rates near 8 C/km, and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads
exceeding 30 degrees. This environment will support an isolated
potential for severe gusts.

...Southern Arizona...
Low-level moisture will be in place today across southern Arizona,
where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As surface
temperature warm, isolated to scattered convective initiation will
occur in the higher terrain of southeastern Arizona. These storms
will move west-southwestward toward an axis of instability. Steep
low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads
will support and isolated potential for severe gusts late this
afternoon into early evening.

...Southeast...
A very moist airmass will be in place today across the Southeast,
where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the region. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
southward across parts of Mississippi and western Alabama. The deep
low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will
support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late
afternoon.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/19/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE MID SOUTH...AND THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the
Mid Atlantic, from Nebraska into Wisconsin, and over parts of the
Mid South.

...From NE into northwest WI...
Mid to upper level northwest winds will increase across the region,
with 30-40 kt at 500 mb common. At the surface, low pressure will
develop into northern MN with a cold front extending southwestward
across eastern SD and into northern NE by 00Z.

Although high pressure will exist east of this area, pockets of 60s
dewpoints will still exist ahead of the front, and, temperatures
aloft will be cool. Daytime heating will thus support
destabilization along the front, with scattered storms from
northeast MN/northern WI into NE. Favorable deep-layer shear around
40 kt along with the cool air aloft will support cells capable of
hail. Isolated hail near 2.00" cannot be ruled out over NE, but this
will depend on actual moisture return and potential for stronger
than forecast instability.

...Mid Atlantic...
Weak low pressure is forecast to translate eastward along a front
which will move into southern PA/central NJ, while another surface
low develops into eastern VA/northeast NC with a increasing
convergence there. Across this small warm sector, upper 60s to 70s F
dewpoints will lead to a zone of moderate instability, and scattered
storms should develop from southeast PA/NJ into MD, DE, and eastern
VA. Additional activity may develop southwestward into northern NC.
20-30 kt mean winds above 700 mb will support clusters of cells
moving southeastward during the late afternoon, with strong to
locally severe wind gusts possible. Isolated marginal hail cannot be
ruled out as upper level temperatures will be cool.

...Mid South...
A surface trough will develop from the Red River eastward across AR
and into northern MS, with a weak wind shift providing a focus for
storm development. CAM guidance continues to show a cluster of
storms developing after 21Z over northern MS into southwest TN. The
environment will be very warm and moist, with temperatures near 100
F and precipitable water values near 2.00". Shear will be weak, and
storms are likely to produce strong outflow winds, possibly severe
downbursts. Isolated marginal hail cannot be ruled out as
temperatures aloft will be relatively cool.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday
afternoon over parts of the Carolinas. Isolated to scattered
damaging hail and wind may occur over parts of the central Plains.

...Central Plains...
Northwest winds aloft will increase across the central and northern
Plains on Friday as a shortwave trough glances the area, and an
upper ridge builds to the west. Temperatures aloft will also cool
across this region, with -10 C at 500 mb pushing south to I-70 by
Saturday morning.

Strong and heating and a surface trough will develop during the
afternoon across the northern to central High Plains, with southeast
surface winds across the Plains. Sufficient moisture should remain
in place for moderate instability to develop across much of NE and
surrounding areas.

While storm coverage is a bit uncertain, the conditional threat of
large hail is high with elongated hodographs and deep-layer shear
over 50 kt. Storms should form near the surface trough over
southwest SD into northwest NE, and proceed southeastward. Swaths of
damaging hail and wind are forecast.

...Carolinas...
A weak upper trough will affect the northeastern quarter of the
CONUS, with 20 kt midlevel winds extending south into the Carolinas.
A front is forecast to move south across NC, with low pressure into
SC an GA. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front,
with mid 70s F dewpoints. Daytime heating will yield strong
instability, with a strong signal for convection along this
boundary. Numerous storms may occur, with strong to severe outflow
winds.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2026