Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF LA/MS
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from Louisiana into
parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.

...East TX into the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South...
In the wake of a departing mid/upper shortwave trough and surface
low, a cold front is forecast to slow down by afternoon and perhaps
become nearly stationary from near the ArkLaTex region to the
Mid-South. As an upstream mid/upper trough approaches from the west,
cyclogenesis is expected along this front, with the surface low
expected to move east-northeastward toward the TN Valley by Saturday
morning. 

Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place within the warm
sector of this cyclone, and low-level and deep-layer shear will
increase with time as the frontal wave develops. However, guidance
continues to vary somewhat regarding the extent of phasing between
the approaching shortwave trough across the southern Plains and a
strong shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian
Prairies. There are also varying solutions regarding the coverage of
early-day convection, and the extent to which it hampers warm-sector
destabilization as low-level and deep-layer shear strengthens. 

Early-day storms within the modest warm-advection regime from east
TX into the lower MS Valley could pose a low-probability threat of
all severe hazards. An increase in the severe potential could evolve
from late afternoon into the evening, as low-level and deep-layer
shear begin to strengthen in response to the approaching trough.
Organized clusters and a few supercells will be possible, with an
attendant damaging-wind and tornado threat that may continue into
late Friday night. However, if early-day convection becomes
widespread with increasingly prominent outflow (as indicated by some
00Z HREF members), the magnitude and north/east extent of the
organized severe threat may be relatively limited. The greatest
relative confidence in an organized severe threat is currently
across parts of LA into central/southern MS, with a more conditional
threat to the north and east of this area.

..Dean.. 01/08/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

...Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia...
An upper trough will amplify and move eastward across the eastern
CONUS on Saturday, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves across the
Great Lakes region. A surface low initially over the TN Valley will
move towards the Mid Atlantic, as another surface low develops
farther north near the lower Great Lakes. 

Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from
parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians vicinity.
Deep-layer flow/shear will be strong, and seasonably rich low-level
moisture will be in place ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.
Organized cells/clusters that develop during the D2/Friday period
may persist through at least the first part of the day, with a
continued threat for at least locally damaging wind, and potentially
a tornado threat where vigorous surface-based convection can
persist. Longevity of the threat with time and eastward extent
remains uncertain, with an expected tendency for weakening buoyancy
and diminishing ascent across the warm sector. Some potential for
locally damaging wind could spread into parts of the Carolinas and
Virginia before the threat diminishes as the cold front moves
through. 

A Marginal Risk has been included for areas forecast to be
along/ahead of the cold front at the start of the period and
near/south of the consensus surface-low track. A Slight Risk was
considered for parts of eastern MS into AL and western GA, as a
continuation of the severe threat from late D2/Friday into Saturday
morning, but deferred to future outlooks given uncertainty regarding
the impact of widespread convection within the warm sector by the
beginning of the D3/Saturday period.

..Dean.. 01/08/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Organized severe potential currently appears low through the
extended-range period. 

A cold front will move through coastal NC and parts of FL on
D4/Sunday, in advance of a deep upper trough moving across the
eastern CONUS, but ascent and buoyancy within the remaining warm
sector appear too weak to support organized storms. For D5/Monday
through D8/Thursday, generally dry and stable conditions in the wake
of multiple frontal intrusions will tend to limit thunderstorm
potential across most of the CONUS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z
ECMWF) indicates that thunderstorm chances may return to parts of
the FL Peninsula by mid week, in association with renewed upper
trough amplification across the eastern CONUS. However, with
guidance generally depicting only weak surface wave development
during this time frame, confidence in organized storm development
remains low.