Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous
United States.

...20Z Update...
No changes.

..Squitieri.. 01/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and
split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California
and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS.  Cool/stable conditions
will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a
result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Tuesday. A large-scale
upper trough is forecast to amplify across the central/eastern
CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low are
forecast to move across the Great Lakes vicinity, while a weak upper
low initially near southwest TX is expected to evolve into a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and move eastward across the Gulf
Coast region. 

A persistent surface ridge over the Gulf will inhibit moisture
return and destabilization within the warm sector of the surface low
moving across the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture and weak
buoyancy may reside across parts of south FL and the Keys for much
of the period. However, weak forcing and poor lapse rates will tend
to inhibit deep convection, with any appreciable thunderstorm
potential currently expected to remain offshore.

..Dean.. 01/11/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR

...Northern High Plains...
Increasing northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rockies along with
increasing surface pressure gradient across the High Plains will
continue to support a downslope regime across the central and
northern High Plains Monday. RH recoveries will be limited tonight
across the High Plains of MT owing to cloud cover and lack of
development of a deeper near-surface temperature inversion. Lower
elevations also remains snow free with a marked lack of recent
precipitation and extended period of above normal temperatures.
West-northwest winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine
with relative humidity in the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to
facilitate an increased fire danger across lower elevations.
Temperatures will be well above normal approaching 60F in some areas
Monday afternoon, despite expected cloud cover. Thus, added Elevated
highlights to portions of central MT for the expected increased fire
weather threat.

..Williams.. 01/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/

...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad
troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high
pressure building to the West. This will favor continued
Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface
temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude
fire-weather concerns.

The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an
advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow
aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping
will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent
precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are
possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry,
albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and
only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more
sustained elevated fire-weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...