Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty
winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast
Arizona and southwest New Mexico.

...Southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico...
Generally cloud-free skies are noted late this morning as heating
has steadily occurred in the presence of a relatively moist airmass
with prevalent 50s F surface dewpoints in lower elevations.
Satellite imagery/derived-winds continue to portray a 35-45 kt
southwesterly mid-level jet associated with a weak shortwave trough
will continue northeastward today. Modest large-scale ascent related
to this feature coupled with terrain-driven influences should aid
thunderstorm initiation across southeast Arizona this afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached.

The boundary layer will not become overly well mixed across this
region through the afternoon, which should allow for around 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE to develop. This instability coupled with cool
mid-level temperatures and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear appear
sufficient for some updraft organization with the scattered to
numerous thunderstorms that form. Isolated, marginally severe hail
and gusty outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that
develop and spread east-northeastward across southeast Arizona into
southwest New Mexico through the afternoon and early evening. This
activity is expected to quickly weaken by mid-evening with the loss
of daytime heating.

..Guyer/Mosier.. 10/19/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. A few strong storms
may affect parts of Arizona late Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
High pressure will extend from eastern Canada southwestward to the
Gulf of America on Tuesday, maintaining stable conditions over most
of the central and eastern states on Tuesday. Farther west, a deep
upper trough will exist just off the West Coast, with increasing
southwest winds aloft from CA into UT and AZ.

Strong daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorms from the
Great Basin into AZ, though an inversion above 500 mb should
minimize updraft strength.

A greater chance of possibly strong thunderstorms may develop
overnight into AZ as temperatures aloft cool, and, winds increase
out of the south. This enhanced upslope may support additional
storms along and north of the Mogollon Rim, and shear will be
stronger at that time. Instability may only be marginally
supportive, with the greater risk developing after 12Z Wednesday
morning.

..Jewell.. 10/19/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

The ongoing forecast remains on track for elevated fire weather
conditions across portions of northeastern California and the
northwestern Great Basin today. Farther east, a persisting dry
airmass and warm daytime temperatures will promote RH values of
20-30% across the lower Mississippi River Valley. Rainfall-neglected
fuels are growing increasingly more receptive, though lighter
northeasterly winds of less than 10 mph will keep fire weather
concerns low. 

Please see the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough positioned offshore of the Pacific Northwest
will shift south and amplify throughout the day, resulting in some
enhancement to the upper-level flow overspreading this region,
including portions of the upper Great Basin. At the surface, winds
should increase throughout the day via diurnal heating/mixing. 
Elsewhere in the CONUS, relatively light winds should prevail in the
wake of a trough exiting the East Coast, with broad/weak zonal flow
aloft and surface high pressure present over the eastern two thirds
of the CONUS.

...Northeastern California, southern/southeastern Oregon, and
northwestern Nevada...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast for this region today.
Sustained wind speeds should peak around 15-20 mph (with localized
gusts up to 25-30 mph possible, particularly across the northern
Sierra), while RH values fall into the low 20s and upper teens amid
dry/receptive fuels. The elevated area has been maintained and
expanded slightly westward, based on the latest high-resolution
guidance.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...