Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today, but some gusty winds
could accompany thunderstorms from parts of Kansas to the eastern
half of Texas.

...KS to TX...

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period
this morning across parts of KS into central/eastern OK and
north/central TX. This activity will persist eastward through the
day, supported by low-level warm advection ahead of a surface low
and cold front. Forecast guidance has trended weaker with any signal
for severe potential. Ongoing convection and cloud cover downstream
across the warm sector will limit heating. Furthermore, lapse rates
will remain poor. Large-scale ascent will increasingly lift
northeast toward the Midwest in tandem with a weakening midlevel
trough. As this occurs, midlevel flow will weaken through afternoon
over the central/southern Plains. Stronger instability is expected
with southward extent toward South TX. However, vertical shear will
be very weak and lapse rates poor, precluding organized updrafts. 

While occasional gusty winds could accompany thunderstorm activity
today, overall severe potential appears low.

..Leitman/Weinman.. 10/01/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday or
Friday night.

...DISCUSSION...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the
northern U.S. on Friday, as multiple shortwave troughs move
east-southeastward through the flow. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southeastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the
Southeast. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front over the Gulf
Coast region will be in the 70s F. This moist airmass will become
weakly unstable by afternoon over most areas. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible within zones of focused low-level
convergence. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak,
which will limit any severe potential.

..Broyles.. 10/01/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday and
Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, zonal westerly flow will develop on Saturday from the
northern Plains into the Northeast. In the southern U.S., mid-flow
aloft will remain west-southwesterly. At the surface, a slow-moving
front will remain located across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. To the south of the front, weak instability is expected by
afternoon over much of the Southeast. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible in areas where low-level convergence
becomes focused. Deep-layer shear will be relatively weak across
this moist airmass, limiting any severe potential.

..Broyles.. 10/01/2026