Mesoscale Discussion 0934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...western/middle Tennessee...northern
Mississippi...northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 011430Z - 011630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind risk to increase through the late
morning/early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms continues to move south and east
into western Tennessee, with occasional taller echo tops and
lightning activity steadily increasing over the last hour. To the
south, a hot and very unstable air mass is in place with
temperatures in the low to mid 80s across southern TN into northern
MS. Though flow is generally weak, forecast soundings indicate
steepening low-level lapse rates are expected across much of the
region. As the storms continue into the better air mass to the
south, will support potential for increasing damaging wind threat
downstream through the afternoon. A watch will likely be needed
soon.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34528993 34829004 35039006 35249000 35708931 35968857
            35938775 35738725 35438687 34698651 34318651 34038708
            33958809 33958873 33998908 34208957 34528993 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be
possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast States...
An occasionally severe MCS is ongoing this morning south of STL. 
This activity may persist through much of the day, tracking
southeastward along the low-level moisture/instability gradient into
western KY/middle TN and eventually north GA. Moderate CAPE values,
30+ knots of mid-level steering flow, and mesoscale organization of
the MCS will pose a risk of strong/damaging winds along this
corridor.

Along the western flank of this MCS, a hot/humid air mass will
develop from AR into parts of TN/MS/AL with temperatures in the 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s.  This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values
approaching 4000 J/kg.  The consensus of model guidance suggests
scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon, with outflows
congealing and spreading south/southwestward though a steep
lapse-rate environment.  The result will be the potential for rather
widespread strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail.  These storms may spread as far south as central MS/AL
during the evening before weakening.

...High Plains...
Easterly low-level winds are present this morning over much of
eastern CO/western KS.  This will maintain an influx of moisture and
aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over the foothills
of central CO by mid-afternoon.  Sufficient deep-layer shear will
pose a risk of supercells capable of large/very large hail.  As the
storms move/develop eastward into western KS this evening, supercell
structures may persist, but upscale growth into bowing clusters is
also expected.  This will increase the risk of severe wind gusts as
well.  The easterly low-level jet will also strengthen considerably
this evening across the region, enhancing low-level shear and
helicity, but in a region with high LCLs and dewpoints only around
50F.  

Widely scattered severe storms are also expected to develop over
southeast WY, spreading eastward into the NE panhandle and southwest
SD with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/01/2026