WW 526 SEVERE TSTM KY NC TN VA WV 281715Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
115 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kentucky
Western North Carolina
East Tennessee
Southwest Virginia
Southern West Virginia
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon across the region. A few severe storms are
expected, capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail. A
tornado or two is also possible in any supercells that can become
established.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south
southwest of London KY to 35 miles east of Danville VA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 525...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Hart
WW 525 SEVERE TSTM DE NJ PA CW 281650Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Delaware
New Jersey
Southeast Pennsylvania
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will strengthen through the afternoon in a
warm/moist and moderately unstable air mass. Damaging winds will be
possible in the strongest storms, although a tornado or two may also
occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of
Allentown PA to 35 miles west of Wilmington DE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Hart
WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0526 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0525 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0525 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 1784 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525... FOR SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Areas affected...Southern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey and
far southern New York
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...
Valid 281830Z - 282030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525
continues.
SUMMARY...A couple of corridors of relatively greater severe wind
potential have emerged across portions of WW 525. These corridors
will continue to be the primary axes for severe weather over the
next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar and velocity imagery depicts a
consolidating cold pool within a loosely organized MCS across far
eastern PA and northern NJ. This line has reached sufficient
intensity to produce 50 mph gusts (recently measured at KABE), and
will continue to reside within a thermodynamic environment adequate
for MCS maintenance for at least next 1-2 hours (MLCAPE remains near
1000 J/kg downstream where temperatures are warming into the 80s).
Marginal deep-layer wind shear and a relatively narrow effective
warm sector should modulate overall storm intensity, but the
potential for damaging wind gusts should persist downstream. Local
expansions of WW 525 have been made to address this potential.
Further west, a cluster of thunderstorms across south-central PA has
displayed signs of a slowly deepening and organizing cold pool.
Immediately downstream, a narrow corridor of partly cloudy skies has
allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s and MLCAPE to increase
to near 1500 J/kg. This more buoyant air mass, coupled with around
25 knots of 0-6 km BWD sampled by KCCX, may promote further
organization/intensification of the emerging line over the next 1-2
hours with an attendant threat for damaging winds.
..Moore.. 07/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 40187886 40327859 40497800 40607742 40597646 40717578
40957524 41147493 41637441 41697407 41587373 41307357
40727398 40387417 40107453 39737549 39637611 39637700
39677782 39807854 39957885 40187886
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 1783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Areas affected...portions of West Virginia...northern/central
Virginia...and southern Delaware
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 281804Z - 282000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon.
Damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Ahead of an approaching cold front across West
Virginia, mostly sunny skies across portions of northern/central
Virginia has allowed for temperatures to rise into the low to mid
80s. Steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE are
noted across the region as a result. Strong mid-level flow is
supporting deep layer shear around 40-50 kts. Flow is generally
perpendicular to the front, which may support a mix of clusters and
supercell structures. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support
potential for downward momentum transfer and damaging wind. With any
supercell structures that can maintain, large hail and perhaps a
tornado will be possible. More modest low-level shear may somewhat
limit the tornado potential initially, though the low-level jet may
increase into the late afternoon. A watch will be needed soon to
cover this potential.
..Thornton/Hart.. 07/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39547882 39318019 38388081 38048006 36987787 36677684
36647594 37217539 38307509 38607506 38887566 39547882
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1782 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1782
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Areas affected...The Colorado Front Range into northeast Colorado
and southwest Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 281757Z - 282000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the Colorado Front Range
may pose a threat for isolated large hail over the next couple of
hours. Eventually, upscale growth into one or more organized
clusters/lines appears likely with a more widespread threat for
severe wind into northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska. Watch
issuance is possible in the coming hours as storms begin to mature.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lightning data shows the early
stages of thunderstorm development along the CO Front Range and
further west within the higher terrain of the central Rockies. A
recent ACARs sounding from Denver, CO shows only around -50 J/kg
MLCIN remaining as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 80s. Further
heating at lower elevation should continue to reduce inhibition over
the next couple of hours and yield a thermodynamic environment
favorable for convective intensification - especially with eastward
extent into a plume of richer low-level moisture. Local VWPs are
also showing 20-25 knot westerly flow, which will promote eastward
advection of convection off the terrain and some degree of
organization in the coming hours.
Consequently, it appears that some hail threat is possible in the
next couple of hours as isolated thunderstorms continue to develop
and mature. With time, cold pool expansion and storm interactions
should promote upscale growth within a deeply mixed, but buoyant,
environment. As this occurs, the potential for strong/severe winds
should increase and may pose a more widespread severe threat
downstream into northeast CO/southwest NE. It remains somewhat
unclear how extensive the near-term severe hail threat will be, but
watch issuance will likely be needed to address the severe wind
concern later this afternoon.
..Moore/Hart.. 07/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39180526 40100526 40520515 40800497 41010463 41580304
41720245 41650220 41300203 40830198 40330215 39890230
39510255 39230280 39010322 38860361 38970500 39080520
39180526
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST
TENNESSEE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS...AND OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are
expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts and hail may also occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains.
...East TN into central VA/NC...
Late morning thunderstorms persist over parts of this region, with
pockets of precip and clouds. This will somewhat limit afternoon
heating across NC, but upstream heating and ample moisture should
spread eastward. This will aid in the re-development of intense
thunderstorms later today across the mountains of east TN/KY into
southwest VA and western NC. Forecast soundings show considerable
low and deep layer shear, favorable for supercell and bowing
structures. Damaging winds are the main concern, but hail and a few
tornadoes are also possible if supercells are maintained. These
storms will spread southeastward into central NC during the evening
with a continued damaging wind risk.
...Central VA into parts of PA/DE/NJ...
Persistent cloud cover is limiting daytime heating so far from
eastern PA eastward to the coast. However, visible satellite
imagery shows some clearing developing from central PA into central
VA, where temperatures are climbing rapidly into the 80s. This
trend will likely spread eastward and aid in the development of
scattered afternoon storms. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
and sufficient winds aloft will promote damaging winds in the
strongest cores. Occasional supercell structures could also result
in a tornado or two and/or hail.
...Eastern CO...
An upper ridge is centered over northern NM, with 20-30 knot
westerly flow over northern CO/southern WY. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form over the mountains and foothills today,
spreading eastward into the plains by late afternoon. Ample
moisture and moderate CAPE over the mountains, along with sufficient
vertical shear, may support hail in the strongest cells. As the
activity moves eastward into a hot air mass, locally damaging winds
will become a risk. This activity may spread into western NE/KS
this evening before weakening.
..Hart/Moore.. 07/28/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...AND
FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds are
possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening over southern
Georgia, northern Florida and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated severe
storms capable of damaging gusts and large hail may occur over the
northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.
...Southern GA and AL...Northern FL and the FL Panhandle...
A slow moving upper trough will begin to weaken/fill on Wednesday
over the eastern states, with upper low centered over NY. A cold
front will primarily be offshore, but the tail end will extend
westward across GA/FL. Ahead of the front, 70s F dewpoints and
strong heating will lead to strong instability, with MLCAPE possibly
reaching 4000 J/kg. This high PWAT environment along with favorable
time of day near peak heating will yield severe wind potential as
storms develop near the cold front during the afternoon.
While shear will be weak, modest westerly mean winds aloft should
support a general southeastward storm motion with multicells and
merging outflows expected. The primary concentration of storms
should be from far southern GA into the FL Panhandle and northern
FL, and perhaps into far southeast AL. Additional daytime activity
is likely farther northwest across MA and AR as well, though
large-scale support will be less. Still, areas of strong instability
could yield scattered strong gusts there.
...Northern High Plains...
A surface trough will deepen from eastern MT into WY during the
afternoon with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates
developing. This area will also be affected by a disturbance aloft
rounding the upper ridge and enhancing mid/upper winds and
deep-layer shear. Southeasterly low-level winds will maintain
sufficient moisture into the region to support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
even as the boundary layer mixes with heating. Storms will form over
eastern MT and WY after 21Z and move into the western Dakotas
through early evening, with damaging wind potential. Isolated hail
may occur as well as mid/upper lapse rates remain steep, and high
level winds increase, elongating hodographs.
..Jewell.. 07/28/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track for locally elevated fire weather
conditions across portions of the northwestern CONUS. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level shortwave trough will move over Washington and
British Columbia, with an associated cold front moving through much
of the Northwest late in the day and overnight. Widespread smoke
will continue across the northwestern US, east of the Cascades.
Upper-level ridging will continue over the southern/central Rockies
and much of the Plains, with scattered monsoonal thunderstorms
across the Four Corners region.
West-southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph
will develop across portions of the Inland Northwest ahead of an
approaching cold front and under strengthening flow aloft. RH will
fall to 20-35% across central/eastern Washington and northern Oregon
where winds are forecast to be the strongest leading to locally
elevated conditions. Winds will shift to west-northwest behind the
front in the evening and overnight as it pushes southeast across the
region. However, RH is likely to increase behind the front by 5-15%,
with better RH recovery overnight.
Locally elevated conditions are also expected across portions of the
western/northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies with
west-southwest winds of 10-20 mph amid minimum RH of 8-20%. While
deeper, more widespread daytime mixing is expected across Nevada,
smoke will likely inhibit mixing farther north where stronger flow
aloft exists.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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