Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid MS
Valley...
A negative-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated
surface low will move quickly northeastward from the southern High
Plains towards the Great Lakes on Thursday. This shortwave will
impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and MUCAPE of near/above
500 J/kg from late D1/Wednesday into early D2/Thursday morning,
resulting in thunderstorm development. Deep-layer shear will be
quite favorable, and the strongest morning storms may be capable of
producing localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail. The Marginal
Risk area has been expanded westward across OK and southern KS, with
recent guidance indicating a slightly slower shortwave timing. Most
guidance suggests morning convection may remain slightly elevated,
but low tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence
increases in surface-based storm development from central OK into
southeast KS.  

With time, the morning storms will encounter decreasing buoyancy,
but if organized convection can be sustained, then some threat for
localized damaging wind could spread toward the mid MS Valley and
possibly a larger portion of the Midwest and lower OH Valley, in
conjunction with the ejecting shortwave. The northeast extent of
severe potential remains uncertain, with the shortwave expected to
eventually outpace returning low-level moisture. 

Farther south, severe potential becomes more conditional from parts
of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South, with stronger ascent expected to
remain north of this region. While buoyancy will remain weak,
low-level and deep-layer shear will be strong. Guidance remains
inconsistent regarding the development of deep convection in this
region, with the ECMWF and RRFS being somewhat more aggressive,
while other guidance is generally more muted. If robust convection
can develop within this environment, then some threat for locally
damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve from late
afternoon into part of Thursday night. 

...Arizona...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day
across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail
could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is
currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe
threat.

..Dean.. 01/07/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday
from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and
Southeast.

...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH 
Valleys...
Within a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, an initial ejecting shortwave is forecast to
move from the Great Lakes toward northern New England. Upstream of
this system, two shortwaves (one initially over the southern Rockies
and the other over the Canadian Prairies) will progress eastward and
potentially begin to phase, though some guidance spread remains
regarding the details. As this occurs, a surface low will develop
and gradually deepen as it moves from the southern Plains toward the
lower Ohio Valley. 

Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F)
will already be in place within the warm sector of this developing
cyclone. A reservoir of moderate buoyancy is forecast to reside from
south/east TX into LA, with somewhat weaker buoyancy farther north
and east, where relatively widespread convection will result in
weaker lapse rates and muted diurnal heating. Deep-layer shear will
remain strong through the period, and a low-level jet is expected to
develop by late afternoon and intensify through the evening, in
response to the approaching shortwave trough and surface low. 

Details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, with
multiple rounds of convection possible across much of the warm
sector. Some severe threat could develop through the morning and
into the afternoon, with guidance suggesting an increasing threat
from late afternoon into Friday night, in association with
increasing large-scale ascent and the strengthening low-level jet.
The moist and strongly sheared environment will support potential
for supercells and organized clusters, with an attendant threat of
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some hail will also be possible,
especially within the southwest portion of the primary threat area,
where somewhat stronger buoyancy is expected to be in place.

..Dean.. 01/07/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Saturday...
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast
into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on
D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain. 

Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and
progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A
deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley
toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps
through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared
convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday
morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the
southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually
overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.
However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these
regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward
extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of
the warm sector with time. 

...D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday...
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL
Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to
limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the
wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize
severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.