Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail are possible along the Middle
to Upper Texas Coast tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this
update. See the previous discussion below for details.

..Weinman.. 11/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026/

...TX Coast...
Recent surface analysis places an inverted trough just off the Lower
TX Coast. Warm-air advection near this trough is supporting an area
of showers and thunderstorms. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings show a deep
and moist boundary layer atop relatively cool mid-level temperatures
(around -9 to -10 deg C at 500 mb). Enhanced mid-level flow exists
above 700 mb as well, contributing to moderate shear within the
cloud bearing layer. These factors could support isolated updrafts
capable of marginally severe hail through the early afternoon.
Weakening warm-air advection should lead to weakening thunderstorm
coverage and intensity during the late afternoon/early evening. 

The weak vorticity maximum currently over the TX South Plains will
drift southeastward today, interacting with this more moist and
buoyant airmass along the coast around 00Z. Ascent associated with
this wave coupled with modest warm-air advection will likely result
in increasing thunderstorm coverage after 00Z. Mid-level
temperatures will cool slightly as well, supporting an increase in
the elevated buoyancy across the region. Mid-level flow throughout
this layer will remain strong, with cloud-bearing layer shear over
50 kt. These environmental conditions appear supportive of
marginally severe hail within any of the more persistent updrafts.

...Elsewhere...
Occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection
that will move quickly east-northeastward across parts of coastal WA
today in tandem with another mid-level shortwave trough, but very
weak instability will limit the severe threat with this activity.
Late afternoon thunderstorms are also possible within the moist
confluent flow over the central/southern FL Peninsula.

A few flashes are also possible near the center of the TX vorticity
maximum over central/north-central TX this afternoon/early evening.
Thunderstorm coverage in this region is currently expected to be
less than 10 percent.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Thursday and
Thursday night.

... Synopsis ...

On Thursday the evolving eastern US longwave trough will continue to
be reinforced as a series of midlevel shortwave troughs move through
the broader flow. One such trough will overspread the Mid-Atlantic
region during the day and into the overnight on Thursday.
Large-scale ascent associated with this trough should allow for
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic
northward along the far southern New England coast.

Despite strengthening low-level wind fields, scant low-level
moisture and cool/cold thermal profiles should limit thunderstorm
development. One area of potential will be along the Mid-Atlantic
where slightly better low-level moisture will reside and along the
coastal region of southern New England where low-level thermal and
moisture profiles will be modulated by the warmer waters of the
Atlantic. Instability should remain too weak to support severe
thunderstorms.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible across far south Florida
where modest instability will reside ahead of an advancing cold
front. Tropospheric winds across this area will strengthen in
response to the deepening/strengthening eastern US longwave trough.
The strengthening wind field may support some potential for a strong
or severe thunderstorm across far south Florida before the surface
front pushes south of the area. However, at this time concerns with
the timing of the frontal passage and when the kinematic fields
respond to the upper trough result in confidence of severe being too
low to warrant unconditional probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 11/10/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The previous forecast remains on track with no significant fire
weather concerns across CONUS for D2/Wednesday. Please see previous
discussion for additional details.

..Williams.. 11/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026/

...Synopsis...
The upper-level flow over the CONUS amplifies on Day 2/Wednesday
with ridging over the Intermountain West and troughing across
portions of central/eastern portions of the CONUS. A surface cyclone
will strengthen and track east-southeast across the Midwest into the
Ohio Valley. Drier post-frontal flow will develop on much of the
Plains. However, the stronger winds are likely to be displaced from
the lowest RH, and fuels are not particularly receptive on the
Plains. Drier pre-frontal conditions are likely across portions of
the southern Appalachians into Georgia and South Carolina. However,
there will likely be limited overlap of moderately receptive fuels
and elevated winds/RH, thus precluding introducing any risk areas at
this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...