WW 241 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 231515Z - 232300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Arkansas
Central and Eastern Louisiana
Mississippi
* Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1015 AM until
600 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...An organized linear cluster of storms will continue
east-northeastward today with wind damage as the most common hazard.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northeast of
Monroe LA to 65 miles southwest of Mc Comb MS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIB TO 40 N
MCB TO 30 ENE HEZ TO 30 N HEZ TO 35 ESE ELD TO 15 NE ELD.
..WENDT..05/23/26
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 241
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-231940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
LAC035-065-067-083-123-231940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND WEST CARROLL
MSC007-021-029-031-049-051-053-055-079-089-121-123-125-127-129-
149-151-163-231940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CLAIBORNE COPIAH
COVINGTON HINDS HOLMES
MD 0839 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0839
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...Middle Texas Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231833Z - 232030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A compact MCS will be capable of severe winds along the
middle Texas Coast. The threat will remain spatially confined to the
immediate coast and a watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A compact MCS developed in the vicinity of Corpus
Christi earlier this afternoon. This feature has had a history of
severe gusts (53-59 kt measured in Corpus Christi). Given the radar
signature on KCRP velocity data and a favorable thermodynamic
environment ahead of the MCS, severe gusts along the immediate coast
will remain possible. This activity will likely interact with
convection near Houston. At that time, severe potential should
diminish.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...
LAT...LON 28049669 28499699 28879667 29239595 29309532 29189504
28839521 28049669
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MD 0838 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado...western/central
nebraska and northwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231824Z - 232130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across
the central High Plains. A few stronger storms could emerge with a
risk for isolated hail and damaging winds. A watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 1820 UTC, visible imagery showed initial ACCAS
and boundary layer cumulus over parts of NE/CO was beginning to
deepen with diurnal warming. This heating, amid modest (40s F)
surface dewpoints is support weak destabilization, which should
continue through the afternoon. Aided by weak ascent from a broad
upper trough over the High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop and spread eastward into this evening.
While initially buoyancy (SBCAPE ~ 500 J/kg) and vertical shear will
be on the weaker side, 20-30 kt of effective shear could support a
few organized multi cell clusters. Steep lapse rates in the low and
mid-level should support a risk for some hail and damaging gusts
with the stronger storms. CAM solutions show some clustering as
convection gradually spreads eastward with a slight increase in
deep-layer shear late this afternoon into the early evening. While
an isolated severe risk is possible, the weaker buoyancy and
initially more limited vertical shear should keep the threat
isolated. Thus a WW is unlikely at this time.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40060001 39020108 38970243 39800279 41170259 42310156
42380061 42289989 41729941 40869964 40060001
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 0837 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...Georgia into central South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231734Z - 231930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible as scattered convection
develops this afternoon. Potential for a more organized severe
threat continues to appear low and a watch is not currently
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Despite weak forcing, scattered thunderstorms are
likely within a a very moist (low/mid 70s F dewpoints) and weakly
capped airmass. Mid-level lapse rates are relatively poor (6 C/km
per 12Z FFC sounding), but around 1.75 in. PWAT values and pockets
of steeper low-level lapse rates will promote potential for isolated
water-loaded downbursts and associated wind damage. Storm
organization is not expected to be substantial and any greater
potential for wind damage would be tied to localized clustering of
storm cells.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 31358461 32788508 33668482 33858436 33838318 34018154
34088081 33748069 32488167 31308255 30908322 30928354
31358461
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 0836 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241... FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana into central Mississippi
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...
Valid 231705Z - 231900Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for wind damage will continue into central
Mississippi this afternoon. Brief tornadoes also may occur,
particularly close the the MCV circulation.
DISCUSSION...Filtered surface heating continues ahead of an
MCV-driven convective line. The strongest surface heating has
occurred in central Mississippi where temperatures are in the low
80s F. KPOE VAD shows around 40 kt of flow within the lowest 3 km
after the MCV passed. This should promote at least some threat for
wind damage as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen ahead of
the activity. The southern extent of the threat is the most
uncertain given the influence of convection along the central Gulf
Coast. While overall low-level shear remains weak, KPOE VAD did show
an increase to around 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH just ahead of the MCV.
Brief tornadoes remain possible this afternoon.
..Wendt.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31498955 31319002 31219080 31079161 31179188 31639207
32039263 32399305 32529298 33269158 33379037 33098946
32638910 32198922 31498955
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today mainly across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more isolated
severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and
the central High Plains.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An ongoing semi-well-organized cluster of storms appears to be aided
by an MCV, and will likely continue east-northeastward today across
the ArkLaMiss and broader parts of Mississippi, to the north of more
extensive weaker convection closer to the coast in southern
Louisiana. Ample heating ahead of the cluster and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support wind potential aside from a
modest MCV-related flow enhancement. A brief tornado could also
occur, although thunderstorm wind damage is most probable.
...West Texas/Southern High Plains...
Relatively weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern
aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into
the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob;
8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in
moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon, stronger with
southward extent across the Texas South Plains into southwest Texas.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from
near the Colorado/Panhandles border region southward into the
Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
the primary severe hazards. A gradual clustering is expected during
the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.
...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak mid-level disturbance will move east-northeastward today.
Ahead of it, adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered
showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support
some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm
clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially
yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this
threat wanes by early evening.
...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a
north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt
500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support
a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon
through early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threats
with these storms.
...Ohio...
A couple of rotating storms could develop regionally this afternoon
within a belt of residually strong low-level flow. A brief/low-end
tornado threat may exist.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/23/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KS
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHWEST
IA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest, mainly Sunday afternoon and
evening. Isolated large to very large hail and localized severe
gusts will be possible.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Upper Midwest
will move over the Great Lakes region on Sunday. Broad southerly
flow between a surface ridge near the mid MS Valley and a lee trough
over the High Plains will result in some moisture return into parts
of the central Plains and Upper Midwest, though the magnitude of
this moisture return remains somewhat uncertain. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and relatively cool midlevel temperatures atop the
returning moisture will result in moderate to locally strong
destabilization by late afternoon.
Broad midlevel height rises are expected across the region, in the
wake of the departing shortwave trough. However, guidance suggests
that one or more weak midlevel vorticity maxima may aid in at least
isolated diurnal thunderstorm development near a weak surface
trough/dryline from central NE into southeast SD/southwest MN.
Deep-layer flow will remain generally modest, but veering wind
profiles and 30-40 kt of effective shear will conditionally support
supercells, if surface-based development can be sustained. Large to
very large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany any
supercell development during the afternoon and evening.
A Level 2/Slight Risk upgrade was considered for parts of the
region, but due to uncertainties regarding low-level moisture and
storm coverage, have opted to maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk, with
a conditional area highlighting very large hail potential, should
any sustained supercells develop.
...Southeast/southern Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorm development is again expected across the
region, within a moist and uncapped environment. A belt of 20-30 kt
midlevel flow to the east of the mid/upper trough across TX will
provide modest deep-layer shear, but weak midlevel lapse rates will
tend to limit updraft intensity. Locally damaging wind cannot be
ruled out with convection across the region, but the
organized-severe threat currently appears too limited and nebulous
to include probabilities at this time. If a robust MCV emerges from
extensive convection near the Gulf Coast, then somewhat more
organized severe potential could evolve through the day.
...LA Gulf Coast/Lower MS Valley vicinity...
Widespread convection is expected to persist from D1/Saturday into
D2/Sunday across parts of the LA Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley, as
the nearly stationary mid/upper trough over TX interacts with rich
moisture. Generally weak flow and lapse rates are currently expected
to limit the organized-severe threat. Any more organized potential
for a brief tornado or locally damaging wind would likely be
contingent on MCV development, but this scenario remains highly
uncertain at this time.
...Lower OH Valley/Allegheny Plateau...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Ohio
Valley and Allegheny Plateau during the afternoon, in association
with the mid/upper trough moving across the Great Lakes region.
Modest midlevel flow will overspread the region and isolated strong
storms will be possible, but weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy
are expected to limit severe potential.
..Dean.. 05/23/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 231700Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were needed for the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update.
Please see previous forecast discussion below.
..Williams.. 05/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will persist across the northern Great Plains
and Midwest today, with ridging in place across much of the
Southeast/East Coast. Upper-level ridging will also gradually build
across much of the western CONUS through the period. At the surface,
a series of frontal systems will progress across the Great Plains
and eastern CONUS, with several mid-level perturbations promoting
the potential for wetting rainfall across much of the Southern
Plains and eastern US.
Warming temperatures under the gradually building ridge will support
RH reductions to 10-20% across much of the Southwest and portions of
the Great Basin this afternoon. Weak surface pressure gradient
magnitudes and, subsequently, generally light surface winds will
largely temper broad fire weather concerns across the region.
Sustained westerly/southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph may promote
locally elevated fire weather concerns in favored gap/terrain areas,
however.
Mid-level moisture atop deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles may
support weak buoyancy and isolated high-based convection over higher
terrain across portions of the western Great Basin into far
northeastern California and southern Oregon this afternoon.
Generally limited lightning potential and sub-critical fuels should
temper the overall lightning ignition threat, however.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
|
