WW 452 SEVERE TSTM KS 040000Z - 040600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
700 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North-Central and Northeast Kansas
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 700 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Supercells have developed along a boundary this evening,
and they should continue to pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2
inches in diameter. Scattered severe/damaging winds up to 65-75 mph
may occur as thunderstorms develop into one or more bowing clusters
while tracking eastward over the next several hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west northwest
of Russell KS to 55 miles northeast of Manhattan KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 446...WW 447...WW
448...WW 449...WW 450...WW 451...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Gleason
WW 451 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN LM 032340Z - 040700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
640 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Iowa
Northern Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 640 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms should pose a threat for mainly
scattered severe/damaging winds as it tracks east-southeastward this
evening into early Saturday morning. Peak gusts may reach up to
60-70 mph. Isolated hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two may also
occur with any cells that can move along/near a boundary.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of Moline IL to Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 446...WW 447...WW
448...WW 449...WW 450...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Gleason
WW 450 SEVERE TSTM NE 032225Z - 040500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Nebraska
* Effective this Friday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Supercells should pose a threat for large to very large
hail this evening, potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter on an
isolated basis. Some chance also exists for upscale growth into a
bowing cluster this evening. If this occurs, then a greater threat
for severe/damaging winds would exist. Peak gusts could reach up to
65-75 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Mullen
NE to 40 miles north northeast of Broken Bow NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...WW 446...WW
447...WW 448...WW 449...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Gleason
WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 452
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HLC
TO 40 E HLC TO 40 S EAR.
..BROYLES..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...GID...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC027-029-051-089-105-117-123-131-141-143-149-157-161-167-183-
195-201-040340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLOUD ELLIS
JEWELL LINCOLN MARSHALL
MITCHELL NEMAHA OSBORNE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY RUSSELL SMITH
TREGO WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BRL TO
35 W MMO TO 50 NE MMO TO 35 NW BEH.
..MOORE..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC031-053-063-075-091-093-099-105-123-155-175-197-040440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOK FORD GRUNDY
IROQUOIS KANKAKEE KENDALL
LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MARSHALL
PUTNAM STARK WILL
INC007-073-089-111-127-040440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON JASPER LAKE
NEWTON PORTER
LMZ741-742-743-744-745-779-040440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WW 0450 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SNY
TO 30 SSW MHN TO 30 ENE CDR.
..BROYLES..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-017-031-041-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-040340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BROWN CHERRY
CUSTER HOOKER KEITH
KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN
LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK
THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW BIE
TO 20 SSW LNK TO 25 NNE LNK TO 15 WNW OMA TO 40 SE DNS.
..BROYLES..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-155-040440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
NEC025-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-040440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS DOUGLAS GAGE
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON SARPY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW DOV
TO 15 WNW PHL TO 10 SSW EWR TO 15 NW ISP.
..MOORE..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...OKX...BGM...ALY...CTP...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 448
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC003-040140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NEW CASTLE
NJC005-007-015-021-025-029-033-040140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER
MERCER MONMOUTH OCEAN
SALEM
NYC059-040140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NASSAU
WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW TOL TO
30 SE DTW TO 30 SE BAX.
..MOORE..07/03/26
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC147-040040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR
LCZ422-040040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CDR TO
35 SSW RAP TO 10 NNW PHP TO 10 SE PIR.
..BROYLES..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC007-047-071-075-095-102-121-123-040240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON
JONES MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA
TODD TRIPP
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MMO
TO 25 WSW BEH.
..LEITMAN..07/03/26
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC053-063-075-091-093-099-105-197-032140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS
KANKAKEE KENDALL LA SALLE
LIVINGSTON WILL
INC007-073-089-111-127-032140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON JASPER LAKE
NEWTON PORTER
LMZ645-743-744-745-032140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MD 1485 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Areas affected...Central and Southwest Nebraska...Far Northeast
Colorado
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450...
Valid 040237Z - 040430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450
continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
will likely continue over the next few hours. As storms move
eastward into southwest Nebraska, a watch extension in area may be
needed.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a couple of intense
storms over the central High Plains. The first storm is in
west-central Nebraska with the second in far northeast Colorado.
These storms are located near a shortwave trough evident on water
vapor imagery, which is providing large-scale ascent helping to
sustain the storms. Ahead of the storms, a moderately unstable
airmass is located across much of southern and central Nebraska,
where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. In
addition, the North Platte WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 40
knots. This will support supercell maintenance late this evening.
Supercells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind
gusts. As the storms in far northeast Colorado move eastward into
southwest Nebraska later this evening, a watch extension in area may
need to be considered.
..Broyles.. 07/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 41939990 42170055 42240119 42110170 41550200 41050240
40760285 40620311 40180322 40030297 39960257 39960198
40120098 40460007 40859965 41169949 41589956 41939990
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 1484 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Areas affected...Northern Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 040229Z - 040430Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms developing across northern Indiana
and far southwest Lower Michigan may pose an isolated hail and
severe wind threat through late evening. Storm
organization/longevity is expected to remain sufficiently limited to
preclude watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development have been
monitored across northern IN over the past 30-60 minutes as a modest
increase in the low-level jet augments isentropic ascent over a
residual outflow boundary draped across the region. Much of this
convection is likely elevated in nature, but latest RAP/HRRR
forecast soundings depict nearly uninhibited most-unstable parcels
between 925-850 mb where ascent is likely being maximized. As such,
further thunderstorm development appears likely in the coming hours.
Storm motions generally to the cool side of the boundary, coupled
with a high probability for destructive storm interactions, suggest
that the potential for long-lived and/or well-organized convection
is low. However, effective bulk shear values are estimated to be
around 25-30 knots within the zone of ascent, and MUCAPE values
remain near 2000 J/kg. This parameter space could support at least
transient organized convection capable of posing a risk of large
hail and perhaps damaging winds in proximity to the surface boundary
for the next few hours. In general, increasingly clustered storm
modes should modulate the overall severe threat and negate the need
for watch issuance.
..Moore/Gleason.. 07/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...
LAT...LON 41068469 41018504 40998658 41038676 41218693 41428699
41658695 41798682 41948664 42138646 42138517 42048486
41798462 41388457 41068469
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1483 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449...452... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1483
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0916 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Areas affected...North-central and Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast
Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Far Northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...452...
Valid 040216Z - 040415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449, 452
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will continue to
be possible over the next few hours from parts of north-central
Kansas northeastward into southwest Iowa. A watch extension in area
may be needed to the south and east of the current watches.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms is
ongoing near an axis of strong instability, where surface dewpoints
range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Across this moist
airmass, the RAP shows an axis of instability with MLCAPE in the
3500 to 4500 J/kg range. The instability along with large-scale
ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough is helping to
maintain storm intensity within the line. The line will move slowly
southeastward into northeast Kansas, far northwest Missouri and
southwest Iowa over the next few hours. Although a severe threat is
expected to continue through late this evening, the threat could
become a bit more isolated as inhibition gradually increases.
..Broyles.. 07/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 41689486 41709538 41519589 41059625 40189689 39589786
39279875 39139980 38869998 38549984 38309911 38419739
38949587 39469508 40339441 41059420 41509445 41689486
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging gusts will continue across portions of the Mid
Atlantic and the central/northern Plains. More isolated to scattered
severe storms will also continue across portions of the High Plains
to the northern Rockies.
...Discussion...
Several clusters of widely scattered thunderstorms in many different
regimes are ongoing across portions of the central and northern
Plains into the Midwest and across the Mid-Atlantic. The greatest
threat through the remainder of the evening will be for damaging
wind, with a few instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado from
the Plains to the Midwest.
Across the central/northern Plains, activity is mainly tied to lee
troughing and broad ascent from the mid-level shortwave trough. A
few embedded supercells will pose potential for large hail through
the evening but the main threat is shifting to become damaging wind,
with several clusters attempting to grow upscale. The more focused
corridor of severe wind threat through the evening will likely
extend from southeastern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where a more
robust line has developed amid a strongly unstable air mass. Deep
layer shear decreases with southward extent into Kansas, however,
storms may be driven by cold pool dynamics south and eastward
through the evening.
Across portions of southern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and
eastern Colorado, a few more discrete supercell clusters are
ongoing. This region will be where the greatest short term risk will
be for large to very large hail, particularly across western
Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota.
Across portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, a cluster of
storms is moving across northern Illinois towards the Chicago Metro.
This line is tracking along a MLCAPE gradient that extends across
northern Illinois into northern Indiana/southern Michigan. Storms
will likely advance eastward along this gradient through the
evening, with potential for damaging winds.
Another robust line is moving eastward through New York City and
northern New Jersey. This has produced a swath of measured severe
wind and continues eastward towards the coast.
..Thornton.. 07/04/2026
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