WW 698 TORNADO MN WI 282040Z - 290200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Minnesota
Northwest Wisconsin
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 340 PM
until 900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to strengthen this afternoon
as they move quickly northeastward. If a supercell or two can be
sustained, then some risk for tornadoes and severe hail will exist
given a favorable environment. Occasional damaging winds may also
occur with any small clusters that can develop through the late
afternoon and early evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Saint
Cloud MN to 55 miles northeast of Eau Claire WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23040.
...Gleason
WW 0698 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0698 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 28 21:00:23 UTC 2026.SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms may occur over parts of Minnesota and
Wisconsin this afternoon and early evening. Isolated tornadoes,
severe hail, and damaging winds will be possible.
...Upper Midwest...
Within a zone of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow across the
north-central CONUS, a shortwave trough over the northern High
Plains late this morning will advance east-northeastward towards the
Upper Midwest this afternoon/evening. A related surface low over the
central High Plains will likewise develop northeastward to
south-central MN by mid afternoon, with a trailing cold front
extending southwestward across the northern/central Plains. Latest
surface observations and observed 12Z soundings across the Upper
Midwest/central Plains show limited low-level moisture present in
the warm sector (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper
50s). This will tend to hinder the development of any more than weak
instability (MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg, perhaps locally
stronger southward in IA ahead of the cold front), even as surface
temperatures continue to warm into the 60s with filtered diurnal
heating.
Strengthening low/mid-level winds through the afternoon will easily
support favorable veering wind profiles with height and around 30-40
kt of deep-layer shear. This shear, coupled with potentially
sufficient boundary-layer instability, may support a narrow zone of
severe potential with thunderstorms that develop near/just east of
the surface low across southern/eastern MN into northwest WI this
afternoon. Even with neutral lapse rates/saturated low-level
profiles depicted across this region per recent RAP forecast
soundings, the presence of elongated/curved low-level hodographs may
still support some risk for a couple of tornadoes with any
supercells that can become established and remain surface based.
Otherwise, isolated severe hail and damaging winds also appear
possible as convection spreads quickly northeastward through the
late afternoon/early evening before weakening with the loss of
daytime heating. Some of this activity may become slightly elevated,
but it could still pose some hail/gusty wind threat.
The potential for robust thunderstorm development farther south into
IA and eastern NE along/ahead of the cold front remains uncertain,
as large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent across
this area. If convection can initiate and persist, then occasional
hail could occur with the strongest cores. Have maintained the
Marginal Risk across this region for this rather conditional
possibility.
...Far West Texas/Southeast New Mexico...
A strong thunderstorm or two appears possible again this afternoon
along/east of the Guadalupe Mountains of southeast NM and the Davis
Mountains in far west TX. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, and
overall thunderstorm coverage should remain rather isolated.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 10/28/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms may occur over parts of Minnesota and
Wisconsin this afternoon and early evening. Isolated tornadoes,
severe hail, and damaging winds will be possible.
...20z Update...
A loosely organized cluster of cells has developed across portions
of west-central Minnesota, the strongest of which produced some
severe hail. These storms developed along the nose of low-level
warm/moist air advection and will continue spreading northeast into
portions of central and east-central Minnesota. See MCD #2413 for
additional details.
Farther south, destabilization has occurred across portions of far
southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Continued low-level
warm/moist air advection and vertical mixing has allowed surface dew
point temperatures to reach the low 60s F. This, along with filtered
insolation is yielding MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Broad ascent is
now overspreading this region, associated with the right-entrance
region of the upper-level jet and an approaching mid-level
short-wave trough. Additionally, visible satellite shows areas of
developing cumulus near the IA/MN border amid a pocket of reduced
CIN per the latest surface mesoanalysis.
Given these conditions, storms are still expected to initiate and
spread northeast, mainly into south-central Minnesota initially.
However, considerable uncertainty exists in the ensuing convective
mode(s). The aforementioned destabilization combined with ample
low-level shear will support a tornado threat if a storm or two can
acquire supercellular characteristics. As such, tornado/wind
probabilities have been maintained. Any such storm will be
accompanied by the threat for severe hail. Therefore, 15% hail
probabilities have been added, covering the preexisting Level 2 of 5
(Slight) risk area.
Elsewhere, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track.
See the discussion below for more details.
..Karstens/Thompson.. 10/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026/
...Upper Midwest...
Within a zone of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow across the
north-central CONUS, a shortwave trough over the northern High
Plains late this morning will advance east-northeastward towards the
Upper Midwest this afternoon/evening. A related surface low over the
central High Plains will likewise develop northeastward to
south-central MN by mid afternoon, with a trailing cold front
extending southwestward across the northern/central Plains. Latest
surface observations and observed 12Z soundings across the Upper
Midwest/central Plains show limited low-level moisture present in
the warm sector (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper
50s). This will tend to hinder the development of any more than weak
instability (MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg, perhaps locally
stronger southward in IA ahead of the cold front), even as surface
temperatures continue to warm into the 60s with filtered diurnal
heating.
Strengthening low/mid-level winds through the afternoon will easily
support favorable veering wind profiles with height and around 30-40
kt of deep-layer shear. This shear, coupled with potentially
sufficient boundary-layer instability, may support a narrow zone of
severe potential with thunderstorms that develop near/just east of
the surface low across southern/eastern MN into northwest WI this
afternoon. Even with neutral lapse rates/saturated low-level
profiles depicted across this region per recent RAP forecast
soundings, the presence of elongated/curved low-level hodographs may
still support some risk for a couple of tornadoes with any
supercells that can become established and remain surface based.
Otherwise, isolated severe hail and damaging winds also appear
possible as convection spreads quickly northeastward through the
late afternoon/early evening before weakening with the loss of
daytime heating. Some of this activity may become slightly elevated,
but it could still pose some hail/gusty wind threat.
The potential for robust thunderstorm development farther south into
IA and eastern NE along/ahead of the cold front remains uncertain,
as large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent across
this area. If convection can initiate and persist, then occasional
hail could occur with the strongest cores. Have maintained the
Marginal Risk across this region for this rather conditional
possibility.
...Far West Texas/Southeast New Mexico...
A strong thunderstorm or two appears possible again this afternoon
along/east of the Guadalupe Mountains of southeast NM and the Davis
Mountains in far west TX. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, and
overall thunderstorm coverage should remain rather isolated.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
Some suppression of upper-level ridging can be expected across the
southern Plains as a shortwave trough moves out of the
Southwest/northern Mexico. Within the northern Rockies, the
upper-level ridge will amplify ahead of a Northwest upper trough.
Modest mid-level height rises will also extend into the central
Plains. A cold front will progress through the lower Great Lakes
region and parts of the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow at low levels
will persist in the southern/central Plains. A modest warm front may
make northward progress within the lower Missouri Valley region late
Thursday into Friday morning.
Convection is likely within the Southwest as the shortwave trough
evolves and moves northeastward. Storms will increase in coverage
northeastward as low-level warm advection develops during the
evening/overnight. Weak lapse rates, modest buoyancy, and weak shear
should minimize severe potential with this activity. Additional
thunderstorms are expected within the lower Missouri Valley late
Thursday into Friday morning. Shear will be slightly stronger than
areas to the southwest. Even so, mid-level lapse rates and elevated
buoyancy will be marginal. Small hail is possible with the strongest
storms, but severe potential still appears low.
..Wendt.. 10/28/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.
...Synopsis...
As upper-level ridging increases within the northern Plains, a
shortwave trough in the Southwest will evolve into a nebulous trough
within the southern/central Plains. Stronger mid-level flow will
arrive within the lower Colorado Valley vicinity towards late
afternoon into the evening as a shortwave trough approaches the Baja
Peninsula.
A broad swath of convection/precipitation is expected in association
with the shortwave trough and warm-advection within the Missouri
Valley vicinity. Poor lapse rates and limited buoyancy should limit
the intensity of this activity. Additional storms are possible
during the mid/late afternoon in the lower Colorado Valley into
parts of southern/central Arizona. Cooler temperatures aloft will
support modest buoyancy (500 to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While a
strong storm or two could produce small hail, shear will remain
limited during the afternoon and should keep severe risk low.
..Wendt.. 10/28/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track as described with no changes
necessary on Day 2/Thursday.
..Stearns.. 10/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
Across the Interior West, westerly flow aloft will gradually
transition to southwesterly as a mid-level trough amplifies over the
Pacific Northwest. Resultant increasing cloud cover across much of
the western CONUS, lighter prevailing winds, and a marginal fuel
environment will limit fire weather concerns. Upper ridging will
continue across the Southeast with surface high pressure centered
over the TN Valley, allowing warm and dry conditions to prevail. A
lack of strong wind where fuels are available to burn, mainly across
the lower MS River Valley and southern Appalachians, will preclude
any significant fire weather threat on Day 2/Thursday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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