Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear
possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and
central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the lower Great Lakes Tuesday
morning is forecast to evolve into a closed low over the
Mid-Atlantic. Within the base of that feature, a belt of enhanced
mid-level flow will spread from the OH Valley into VA and NC by
afternoon.  At the surface, an area of low pressure over southwest
ON Tuesday morning is expected to reform in the Delmarva by
afternoon with a lee trough extending southwest along the Piedmont.
Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeast through the central
and southern Appalachians, the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas.


...Mid-Atlantic into Southern Appalachians...

Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to
be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians within a zone of forcing for
ascent preceding the short-wave trough. Various 00Z model data
indicate deep convection lingering into afternoon from the central
Appalachians into the Delmarva and points north, leading to
uncertainty in the degree of air mass destabilization in those
areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist air
mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within a
kinematic environment featuring anywhere from 30 to 45 kt of
deep-layer shear.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon preferentially along the cold front and lee
trough where sufficient destabilization has occurred. Organized
storm modes appear possible, including supercells and bowing
structures, with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts. Some
tornado threat could materialize Tuesday afternoon in the Delmarva
near the surface low. That threat is conditional on sufficient air
mass destabilization and the presence of a supercell mode.


...Northern and Central High Plains...

Between a deepening lee trough over the northern High Plains and a
stalled surface front along the KS-OK border, a zone of moist and
moderately unstable upslope flow is forecast. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the afternoon and evening along favored
terrain with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear supporting some level of
organization. Severe wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with
the strongest storms.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wednesday...

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern
High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and
upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist
across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the
Mid-Atlantic. 

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to
strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the
Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong
buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of
damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear
possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains,
as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.


...Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday...

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will
be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable
short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into
the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system.  Persistent
low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states
will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern
and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected.
Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however,
some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode.
Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front
in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for
the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent
forecasts.


...Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday...

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression
of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central
Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls
overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on
Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that
could be the source of severe storm development in those areas
Sunday afternoon into night.