Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AD EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY  INTO
MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon
and evening across parts of the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio
Valley into the middle and southern Atlantic Piedmont.  This may be
accompanied by some risk for severe weather, mainly in the form of
localized damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that one notable short wave perturbation within the
westerlies will progress east of the Canadian Rockies through much
of the Canadian Prairies by early Monday.  As this occurs, it
appears that an associated surface cyclone will occlude over
northern portions of the Prairies during the day today, with one
trailing cold front advancing east of the northern U.S. Rockies
before stalling/weakening across the adjacent high plains, as
another more substantive cold front approaches the western through
central Canadian/U.S. border.

At the same time, a trailing mid-level short wave trough is forecast
to dig inland of the Pacific Northwest, then turn eastward across
the northern U.S. intermountain region into Rockies.  As it does, it
appears that it will contribute to at least some suppression of
initially more prominent mid-level ridging centered over the
Southwest.

Downstream, larger-scale mid-level troughing is likely to be
maintained east of the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic
Seaboard.  However, the most prominent embedded short wave trough
already appears to be in the process of becoming increasingly
sheared across the lower Ohio Valley.  This is forecast to continue
while shifting eastward toward the Appalachians today through
tonight, with perhaps one emerging perturbation consolidating with
another digging impulse across the lower Great Lakes vicinity later
today through tonight.  This may be accompanied by a northeastward
migrating surface low, trailed by a weak cold frontal slowly
advancing into and across the Appalachians.

...Eastern U.S...
To the east of the larger-scale mid-level trough axis, early day
cloud cover, precipitation, and otherwise generally weak
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will probably tend to at least
slow, if not inhibit, boundary-layer destabilization.  However,
convection-allowing guidance suggests that breaks in cloud cover
will eventually allow for widely scattered to scattered intensifying
thunderstorm development by late this afternoon, if not earlier.  

It appears that this may tend to focus within a pre-cold frontal
corridor across the Allegheny Plateau/upper Ohio Valley into lower
Great Lakes vicinity, where it could be enhanced by 20-40 kt
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, and within
somewhat more modest flow off the higher terrain into lee surface
troughing across the Piedmont.  Given at least modest CAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg, and potential for heavy precipitation loading in the
presence of seasonably high moisture content, localized strong
downbursts may generate a few damaging surface gusts.

Within the better shear across the Allegheny Plateau into lower
Great Lakes vicinity, the evolution of transient supercell
structures accompanied by some risk for a tornado does not appear
entirely out of the question, given forecast surface dew points
near/above 70F.  However, this potential remains unclear, based on
varied model guidance.

...North Dakota...
Some model output suggests that there may be at least attempts at
deep convective development late this afternoon near the weak
pre-cold frontal surface troughing.  However, the potential for
sustained thunderstorm activity remains more unclear due to limited
low-level moisture beneath very warm and dry mid-levels, associated
with an elevated mixed-layer overspreading the region during the
day.  It appears that somewhat better potential for thunderstorm
development may await increasing forcing for ascent with the
approach of the upstream short wave trough by late tonight.  Based
on forecast soundings this probably will be elevated or high-based
in nature, but perhaps accompanied by some risk for hail and/or
gusty winds.

..Kerr/Chalmers.. 08/02/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms are expected across
eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and a small part of
northeast South Dakota Monday afternoon into evening. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards. Isolated damaging
winds are possible from central and eastern South Dakota into
western Nebraska, in portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England,
and southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet 
streaks initially over the northern Rockies Monday morning will 
progress through the northern Plains and the upper MS Valley. At the
surface, an area of low pressure is expected to weaken while
developing from western SD into northwest ON, along a cold front
advancing through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. The
southern extension of the front will push into the central High
Plains, where it will link with a secondary cyclone over eastern CO.

Elsewhere, an amplified short-wave trough will progress through the
Northeast with a preceding belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds
overspreading that region. The associated surface low is expected to
track along the St. Lawrence Valley, while a trailing front moves
through the Mid-Atlantic and much of New England.


...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley...

Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Monday from central ND
into the ND-MN Red River Valley, within a zone of warm advection and
moisture transport at the terminus of a low-level jet (LLJ). The LLJ
will persist through the day, aiding in air mass recovery in the
wake of the early-day storms. By afternoon, the combination of
daytime heating, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, and steep
lapse rates is expected to yield a moderately unstable, but capped
pre-frontal air mass with MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. 

Renewed thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid- to late
afternoon along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries
in eastern ND into northwest MN, where stronger dynamic forcing for
ascent should erode the cap. Vertically veering wind profiles with
40-50+ kt effective bulk shear will contribute to organized storm
modes, including supercells and bowing structures capable of large
hail and damaging winds. The presence of a 30-40 kt LLJ will lead to
sizable, clockwise-curved hodographs with 0-1 km SRH of 200-300
m2/s2 during the evening. However, the overall tornado threat
remains uncertain as forecast soundings indicate continued capping
within the inflow air mass, poor low-level lapse rates, and only a
small amount of 0-3 km CAPE.

Storm development farther south along the front in SD and NE remains
more uncertain due to capping concerns. Should storms develop, the
environment would support the potential for severe wind gusts and
perhaps marginally severe hail.


...New England into the Mid-Atlantic...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England. Associated
clouds and precipitation are likely to linger into afternoon,
limiting air mass destabilization in some areas. However, where
stronger heating can occur, the presence of dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability
with MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg.

Aided by forcing for ascent attendant to the short-wave trough,
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon along and ahead of the front, namely in areas
that experience greater air mass destabilization. Steepening
low-level lapse rates and the presence of 35-45 kt of deep-layer
shear may support embedded bowing segments capable of damaging wind
gusts.  


...Southeast Arizona...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon over the Gila Mountains as well as along favored terrain
nearer to the international border. A subsequent merging of the
separate regimes appears possible by late afternoon into evening.
The presence of a deep, well-mixed boundary layer with MLCAPE up to
1000-1500 J/kg suggests the potential for severe wind gusts,
especially if some cold pool organization can occur.

..Mead.. 08/02/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN
UTAH...WESTERN/CENTRAL WYOMING...CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO...AND
MONTANA...

...Synopsis...
The strong upper-level trough positioned across the Pacific
Northwest/northern Rockies will translate slowly eastward today,
with strong mid-level flow remaining in place and a dry cold front
progressing east-southeastward across the region. Dry/windy
conditions within the post-frontal air mass and hot, dry, and windy
conditions ahead of the front will promote an expansive area of
elevated to critical fire weather concerns across portions of the
Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern
Great/High Plains.

...Montana into the northern Great Plains...
Latest guidance still indicates that a dry cold front will extend
from northeastern Montana southwestward into northern Wyoming and
eastern Idaho at the start of the period (12 UTC) today, with lee
troughing extending southward into eastern Wyoming and Colorado.
Winds behind this front/lee trough are forecast to be commonly 15-25
mph Sunday morning from northeastern Wyoming into eastern and
northern Montana, with the direction varying from westerly (northern
Montana) to northerly (northeastern Wyoming). Enhanced  mid-level
flow (35-45+ kts at 700 mb) lingering along the Montana/Canada
border will support the continuation of sustained westerly surface
winds of 20-25 mph across northern Montana into the evening, with
northwesterly winds forecast to weaken to near 15 mph farther east
into the northern Great Plains (western ND/SD and northeastern WY)
by mid afternoon. While wind gusts should weaken through the day,
gusts to 30-40 mph (locally up to 50-60 mph in the immediate lee of
the Rockies) will also be possible, particularly across Montana this
morning. In addition, RH values are noted to range from 10-25%
across much of Montana as of 530 UTC Sunday, with only modest
recoveries expected prior to the start of the period at 12 UTC. This
will favor quick RH reductions to 15-20% by late morning/early
afternoon on Sunday (locally dropping to 10% later Sunday
afternoon). With ERCs commonly exceeding the 90th and 95th
percentiles (98th percentile in northern Montana), these conditions
will promote an extended period (6+ hours for some locations) of
critical fire weather conditions, with elevated fire weather
concerns forecast farther east into the northern Great Plains.
Elevated fire weather concerns are also forecast ahead of the lee
trough from the KS/CO/NE border vicinity northward into central SD
where sustained southerly winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap
minimum RH values of 15-25% this afternoon.

Finally, guidance also suggests a secondary cold front may progress
into portions of northern Montana by the end of the period, bringing
a shift to northwesterly winds and the potential for at least a
brief period of sustained 15-20 mph winds (with potential for
occasional gusts of 30-35 mph).

...Central/eastern Idaho into western/central Wyoming...
Within the post-frontal air mass, generally westerly surface winds
are forecast to funnel down the Snake River Valley, with magnitudes
up to 25 mph (perhaps locally higher) for up to 6+ hours in some
locations amid RH of 10-20%. Farther east, initially southwesterly
winds across western/central Wyoming will accelerate to 20-25 mph
and become more westerly amid RH reductions to 10-20%. While
portions of these areas have received recent rainfall, ERCs are
already noted to be around the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater,
and preceding dry/breezy conditions on Saturday likely aided in the
curing of fine fuels. Thus, this combination of winds, RH, and fuels
will support several hours of critical fire weather concerns from
central/eastern Idaho into western/central Wyoming beginning late
this morning/early this afternoon.

...Eastern Washington/Oregon and northern Idaho...
Lingering, enhanced mid-level flow across the eastern portions of
the Pacific Northwest may support sustained westerly/northwesterly
downslope flow up to around 15 mph (locally to 20 mph) with
occasional gusts to 25-30 mph, primarily in favored gap/terrain flow
areas in the immediate lee of the Cascades. Minimum RH values are
also forecast to range from 20-25% (eastern WA/northern ID) to
10-20% (southeastern Oregon). This is expected to promote at least a
few hours of elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon across
areas that experienced critical to extremely critical fire weather
conditions on Saturday.

...Great Basin...
Sustained surface winds ranging from westerly
(central/western/northern Nevada and northern Utah) to southwesterly
(southern/southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah) are forecast to
increase to around 15 mph (locally up to 20 mph) across portions of
the Great Basin this afternoon. RH values are forecast to fall to
5-15% across much of this region, with ERCs noted to range from the
80th to 95th percentiles. These conditions will support at least a
few hours of elevated fire weather concerns. The Elevated highlights
were expanded westward to near the Nevada/California border with
this outlook issuance to reflect the latest trends in guidance/HREF
probabilities.

..Chalmers.. 08/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...