Mesoscale Discussion 0130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the TX/OK Panhandles...western into
north-central OK...south-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 040527Z - 040800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and perhaps locally
gusty winds are possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently developed across parts
of the TX Panhandle, with increasing midlevel cumulus noted into far
northwest OK. A further increase in elevated convection is expected
with time overnight, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough currently
over the central/southern Rockies begins to impinge upon a reservoir
of moderate elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg). 

Steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted in regional 00Z soundings) and
strong mid/upper-level flow (with effective shear of near/above 40
kt) are favorable for organized elevated storms with large hail,
potentially into the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range. However, recent
CAM guidance generally depicts a transition to a cluster or linear
mode with time, which could temper the magnitude and coverage of the
hail threat to some extent. Also, despite a substantial cool/stable
near-surface layer to the north of an advancing cold front, locally
gusty surface winds cannot be ruled out if any substantial
clustering or upscale growth occurs.

..Dean/Mosier.. 03/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34269994 34520122 34620239 35670160 36210088 37469902
            37749750 37659652 37449606 36889643 36329688 35229797
            34289978 34269994 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today into
tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two
will be possible.

...Southern Plains to Lower Ohio Valley...

A compact upper shortwave trough will develop eastward from the
central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley today and tonight. As this
occurs, a swath of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will
overspread portions of the southern Plains to the OH Valley. Height
falls will remain modest with this system, resulting in on a weak
surface wave migrating northeast along a quasi-stationary baroclinic
zone/surface front from OK into southern IL/IN. South of the front,
southerly return flow will support dewpoints climbing into the low
60s F. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates around
7-8 C/km will foster MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg
(possibly higher toward North TX where stronger heating is
expecting).

Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized
convection. However, storm mode may tend to be somewhat messy given
broad ascent within the warm advection regime near the surface
boundary. Additionally, morning convection and cloudiness could
hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization. Nevertheless, a
broad area of severe storm potential exists. First with elevated
convection this morning moving northeast across parts of OK/KS into
MO and southern IL. By afternoon, surface-based convection will be
more likely closer to the surface front. A mix of supercells and
clusters will pose a risk for large hail. Where stronger heating
occurs, some wind damaging potential will also materialize within
steepened low-level lapse rates. A low-end tornado risk will also
accompany supercells near the surface boundary, especially where
stronger heating can occur.

..Leitman/Chalmers.. 03/04/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
into Thursday night from west Texas and the Texas Panhandle into
western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Large hail and severe
wind gusts, along with a couple tornadoes will be possible.

...West and Central Texas/Western Oklahoma/South-central Kansas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly over the
south-central U.S. Moisture advection will take place across the
southern and central Plains. By midday, surface dewpoints will be in
the 50s and 60s F across the moist sector, as a dryline develops
over west Texas. Warming surface temperatures during the day will
result in the development of moderate instability to the east of the
dryline across much of west and central Texas northward into the
eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. By late afternoon,
convective initiation is expected near and just east of the dryline
on the Caprock of west Texas. These storms will grow upscale
quickly, with multiple convective clusters moving eastward into the
Low Rolling Plains of northwest Texas and into western Oklahoma.
Additional storms are expected to form in south-central Kansas
during the evening.

Due to the system in the western U.S. and the associated
southwesterly flow ahead of it, a strong low-level jet is forecast
to develop during the late afternoon and early evening across the
southern Plains. This feature will contribute to moderate deep-layer
shear over much of the southern High Plains. NAM forecast soundings
in the early evening from east of Lubbock northward into the Texas
Panhandle have gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels with
around 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates
are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable
for supercells with large hail and isolated severe gusts. In the
late afternoon/early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
forecast to be in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, which will likely
support a tornado threat with the most intense storms. As low-level
moisture increases across parts of southern and central Kansas
during the evening, additional strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop. A severe threat may eventually affect central
Oklahoma and central to eastern Kansas from mid evening into the
overnight period. 

...Northern Kansas/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Western and Central
Iowa...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over the central
U.S. on Thursday. In response, strong moisture advection will
continue from Thursday into Thursday night across the central Plains
and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected develop across the region starting in the late evening,
with storm coverage steadily increasing during the overnight as a
low-level jet strengthens. Forecast soundings show a low-level
temperature inversion, but develop weak instability aloft, with
MUCAPE increasing into the 500 to 1200 J/kg range across much of
northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and northwestern
Missouri. In addition, effective shear is forecast to increase into
the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment will favor the development
of elevated strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail
and marginally severe wind gusts. The threat is expected to persist
through late in the period.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026