Mesoscale Discussion 0118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Areas affected...parts of southwestern Nebraska and adjacent
northeastern Colorado/southeastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251907Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong surface gusts in excess of 50 kt may
accompany otherwise weak thunderstorm activity overspreading the
region through 1-4 PM MST.

DISCUSSION...Near the southern periphery of a low-amplitude digging
short wave perturbation, lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are in
the process of becoming quite steep near the Cheyenne Ridge
vicinity.  This is occurring in response to continuing insolation
and deep boundary-layer mixing, beneath strong west-northwesterly
flow which may include speeds increasing to 50+ kt as low as 700 mb
during the next couple of hours.

Despite boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points
around 30F, forecast soundings suggest the development of up to a
few hundred J/kg of CAPE, which may maintain and perhaps support at
least some further intensification of ongoing upstream convective
development.   Some lightning is possible, but, more notably, this
low-topped convection probably will enhance the downward transfer of
the stronger momentum to the surface, before activity develops into
a more stable environment deeper into the the Great Plains.

..Kerr/Smith.. 02/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41680410 41740279 41540154 40729960 40240029 40590235
            41210409 41680410 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the central High
Plains late this afternoon into the early evening.

...Central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough/speed max over southern MT/northern WY as it crests an upper
ridge over the West and moves quickly east-southeastward to the MS
Valley through tonight.  Morning visible-satellite imagery shows a
cirrus shield extending eastward across parts of the central High
Plains atop a relatively dry boundary layer (surface dewpoints
around 30 deg F).  A dearth of observed data sampling boundary layer
moisture above the surface lends to some uncertainty for this
forecast.  Yet, westerly downslope flow is leading to warming
surface temperatures (mid 50s deg F) with additional mixing/warming
likely resulting in nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3 km
layer by mid afternoon.  As the upper disturbance approaches and a
cold front --roughly delineated by low cloud cover across northern
WY/western SD-- pushes southward into the central High Plains late
today, isolated high-based convection is forecast to develop. 
Forecast soundings show upwards of a few hundred SBCAPE and strong
west-northwesterly flow within a steep-lapse-rate environment.  A
few of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts may yield an
isolated risk for severe gusts (60-65 mph) primarily during the
21-01 UTC period.  

Elsewhere, thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop
east-southeastward toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley
tonight as warm/moist advection interfaces with a
southward-spreading front, with weak buoyancy expected to limit hail
potential with this mostly elevated convection.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 02/25/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on
Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.

...Discussion...
An expansive area of northwest flow aloft will extend from the
Rockies to the East Coast on Thursday. High Pressure will be in
place from the central Plains across the OH Valley and into the
Northeast, with a cold front slowly pushing south into the  Gulf
Coast states. A leading wave will affect the Appalachians into the
Northeast during the day, with a secondary wave moving into the
southern Plains late.

During the afternoon, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will exist
ahead of this front, from eastern TX across LA, MS, AL, and into GA.
Daytime heating will bring temperatures into the upper 60s to lower
70s, resulting in maximum CAPE values into the 500-750 J/kg range.

While mid and high level winds will be strong with 50+ kt effective
shear, winds in the low levels and convergence will be weak.
Widespread rain will be likely from northern AL and GA into the
Carolinas north of the boundary where a few hundred J/kg elevated
CAPE will be present. Small/non-severe hail cannot be ruled out with
this activity. Given conditionally favorable shear, cooler
temperatures aloft and influence of the upper wave, large hail could
occur should stronger-than-forecast instability develop near/north
of the boundary.

To the south, isolated widely-scattered thunderstorms may develop
during the afternoon across MS/AL/GA near the front and perhaps
across the warm sector at peak heating. Forecast soundings indicate
areas of subsidence aloft as winds veer to westerly behind the lead
wave. Given these factors, these storms are expected to be
non-severe.

..Jewell.. 02/25/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on
Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains toward the
northern Gulf of America on Friday, with cooling aloft overspreading
much of the Southeast. At the surface, a prominent ridge will extend
from the Mid Atlantic across the TN and into the lower MS Valley,
with a cold front roughly from SC into LA. 

Near this front, rain and a few thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing from southern LA/MS/AL/GA into northern FL Friday morning.
While clouds and precipitation may hamper heating, at least a few
hundred J/kg MLCAPE appears likely given lower 60s F dewpoints and a
plume of low-level theta-e extending out of the northern Gulf and
across the FL Panhandle/southern AL/southern GA.

Given questionable destabilization and relatively weak boundary
layer winds, potential for isolated strong/severe storms are not
currently depicted.

..Jewell.. 02/25/2026