Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are also
possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern and Central Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the
Desert Southwest today and into the southern Rockies. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be in place across the southern
Plains. A quasi-stationary front will be located from near Childress
northeastward into southeast Kansas, with a dryline extending
southward into west-central Texas. To the southeast of the front,
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing into the
2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Convective initiation will take place in
the late afternoon along the front and dryline, with a broken line
of strong to severe storms moving eastward across the southern and
central Plains.

In addition to a favorable thermodynamic environment, deep-layer
shear will gradually improve over the southern Plains as the
mid-level trough approaches. RAP forecast soundings in western
Oklahoma increase 0-6 km shear from about 25 knots at 21Z to near 40
knots at 00Z, suggesting that environment will support supercell
development in the late afternoon. Lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km
range will be favorable for large hail with supercells, and
hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible. In addition, a
tornado threat is expected to develop as low-level shear ramps up
during the late afternoon and early evening. Any supercell that can
form far enough away from other storms to maintain a relative long
life cycle will be favored to produce tornadoes. If any supercell
can become intense, then a strong tornado will be possible.
Otherwise, cells are forecast to congeal into a line and move
eastward across northwest Texas, west-central Oklahoma, eastern
Kansas and western Missouri during the evening. The stronger storms
within this line should be associated with severe wind gusts and
isolated large hail. A QLCS tornado threat will also be likely,
especially within the more intense bowing line segments.

Further south into southwest Texas, isolated supercells with large
hail are expected to develop to the east of a dryline. This threat
should persist into the early to mid evening. A few strong wind
gusts will also be possible.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the
eastern U.S. today. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be
located in the Ohio Valley from southern Indiana east-northeastward
into far southern Pennsylvania. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s
and lower 60s F to the south of the front will contribute to weak
instability by early afternoon. Increasing low-level convergence
near the front and warming surface temperatures will result in
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Several short line
segments are expected to form and move eastward across the Ohio
Valley into the central Appalachians. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35
knot range and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated
severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts. A low-end
tornado threat will also be possible.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 04/01/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeastward
from the southern/central Plains into the upper MS Valley. This will
help advect a plume of seasonally rich moisture (upper 50s to low
60s dewpoints) northward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions
through the day and into the overnight hours. Residual convection
emanating out of the mid-MS Valley during the morning hours is
forecast to re-intensify by mid to late afternoon. Concurrently, a
second round of thunderstorms is anticipated along the synoptic cold
front along the MS Valley by late afternoon. Both rounds of
thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe winds, tornadoes, and
sporadic large hail as the regional wind field intensifies through
the day.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Latest guidance continues to depict broken convective bands
(residual from overnight convection over the Plains) moving out of
central and northern MO during the late morning/early afternoon
hours. As the synoptic cyclone lift north, moisture advection will
likely keep pace with the convection given 20-25 mph surface winds
and 45-55 knot flow within the lowest kilometer. Diluted diurnal
heating should support adequate (albeit very modest) destabilization
for a re-intensification of convection by the mid-afternoon hours.
Despite very limited buoyancy (MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg), the
combination of very strong low-level flow and 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH will support organized lines with an attendant threat for severe
winds and tornadoes. The northern and eastern extent of the
wind/tornado threat remains somewhat nebulous and will be
conditional on the quality of downstream destabilization.

...Mid/Upper MS River Valley...
Air mass recover appears likely in the wake of early-morning
convection across northern MO into IA/western IL with most forecast
guidance depicting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 to perhaps 1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Forcing along the cold front to the south of the
surface low will likely support semi-discrete convection that should
propagate east/northeast into northern IL by late afternoon and
evening. A combination of regionally higher buoyancy and strong
low-level flow (similar 0-1 km SRH values between 250-300 m2/s2 are
expected) will support a threat for semi-discrete cells capable of
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes (including the
potential for significant tornadoes).

...Mid-South...
A moist and weakly capped environment across the Mid-South/lower OH
Valley will support convection through peak heating. However,
increasing displacement from stronger synoptic ascent and a lack of
more focused mesoscale ascent will likely result in more isolated
thunderstorm coverage. Nonetheless, deep-layer wind shear will
support organized convection, including the potential for a
supercell or two through early evening.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states today, with a
surface low expected to develop in Kansas by afternoon. Gradient
flow due to surface low intensification, along with some downslope
component of flow, will foster windy and modestly dry conditions
across the southern High Plains. The latest guidance consensus shows
widespread west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 20
percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, warranting
Elevated highlights. Widespread clouds and potential showers will
hinder widespread Critical conditions, though locally Critical
conditions are possible.

..Squitieri.. 04/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...