WW 571 SEVERE TSTM NC TN VA 112300Z - 120600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 571
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
700 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Northwest North Carolina
Far Northeast Tennessee
Western Virginia
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 700 PM
until 200 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line is expected to continue
progressing southeastward through western VA, far northwest NC, and
far northeast TN this evening. Strong to severe gusts are the
primary risk with this line, but a low-probability risk for a
line-embedded tornado exists as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south of Bristol
TN to 10 miles west northwest of Bluefield WV. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 567...WW 568...WW
569...WW 570...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Mosier
WW 570 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 112240Z - 120600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
540 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern North Dakota
North-Central into Northeast South Dakota
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 540
PM until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
through tonight across portions of southern North Dakota and
north-central/northeast South Dakota. Environmental conditions
support the potential for supercells capable of large to very large
hail and strong wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest
of Dickinson ND to 40 miles north northeast of Aberdeen SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 567...WW 568...WW 569...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Mosier
WW 569 SEVERE TSTM SD 111940Z - 120200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western South Dakota
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the Black Hills region and spread slowly eastward through the
early evening. Large hail is the main concern, along with locally
damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast
of Rapid City SD to 75 miles south southeast of Rapid City SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 565...WW 566...WW
567...WW 568...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Hart
WW 568 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 111835Z - 120000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 568
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
235 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Indiana
Northeast Kentucky
Southwest Ohio
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of storms over central Indiana/Ohio will track
southeastward across the watch area this afternoon. Hot and humid
conditions and strong winds aloft over much of the watch area will
aid in the development of fast-moving storms capable of considerable
wind damage.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest
of Lexington KY to 115 miles east of Cincinnati OH. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 565...WW 566...WW 567...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Hart
WW 567 SEVERE TSTM IN OH 111635Z - 120000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 567
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Easterm Indiana
Western Ohio
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected to
affect the watch area this afternoon, including a fast-moving bow
echo over northwest Indiana. Damaging winds (some significant
damage possible) are the primary concern, although a tornado or two
is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest
of Columbus OH to 45 miles south southeast of Dayton OH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 563...WW 564...WW
565...WW 566...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28035.
...Hart
WW 565 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LM 111500Z - 112100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Indiana
Southwest Lower Michigan
Northwest Ohio
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 1100 AM until
500 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this morning, but more
widespread severe weather risk is expected by early afternoon as a
fast-moving line of intense storms spreads across the watch area.
Severe wind gusts are possible with this activity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southwest of Valparaiso IN to 55 miles east southeast of Fort Wayne
IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 563...WW 564...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29040.
...Hart
WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0571 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0570 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEINMAN..08/11/26
ATTN...WFO...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 569
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC007-019-033-047-055-071-081-093-102-103-137-112240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON
LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA
PENNINGTON ZIEBACH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LUK
TO 40 NE LEX TO 55 WNW HTS TO 10 NE UNI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931
..WEINMAN..08/11/26
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC029-077-115-137-143-155-112240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEARBORN JEFFERSON OHIO
RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND
KYC005-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-041-043-049-051-063-065-067-
069-071-073-077-079-081-089-095-097-103-109-113-115-117-119-121-
125-127-129-133-135-137-151-153-159-165-167-173-175-181-187-189-
191-193-195-197-201-203-205-209-223-235-237-239-112240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BATH BELL
BOONE BOURBON BOYD
BOYLE BREATHITT CARROLL
CARTER CLARK CLAY
ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE
FLEMING FLOYD FRANKLIN
WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE MIE
TO 15 WNW LUK.
..WEINMAN..08/11/26
ATTN...WFO...ILN...CLE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC041-047-161-112240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAYETTE FRANKLIN UNION
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE JKL
TO 40 WNW BLF TO 10 NNE BLF TO 5 E SSU.
..CHALMERS..08/11/26
ATTN...WFO...RLX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC027-051-111940-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN DICKENSON
WVC047-111940-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCDOWELL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N DNV TO
10 N IND TO 35 SSE MIE TO 35 NW LUK.
..WEINMAN..08/11/26
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC005-013-021-027-031-045-055-059-063-071-079-081-093-097-101-
105-107-109-119-121-133-139-145-153-165-167-112240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLAY
DAVIESS DECATUR FOUNTAIN
GREENE HANCOCK HENDRICKS
JACKSON JENNINGS JOHNSON
LAWRENCE MARION MARTIN
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
OWEN PARKE PUTNAM
RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN
VERMILLION VIGO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1937 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Areas affected...Parts of western SD
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569...
Valid 112248Z - 120015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569
continues.
SUMMARY...Intense supercells will remain capable of producing mainly
large to very large hail (up to 2-3.5 inches and diameter) this
evening as they track east-southeastward.
DISCUSSION...A supercell which developed over the Black Hills
earlier this afternoon strengthened and produced large hail up to
3.5 inches in diameter in southwest SD. Since then, additional
supercells have developed over far southeast MT into northwest SD,
and over the Black Hills. The environment across western SD remains
quite favorable for the maintenance for intense supercells this
evening, with strong instability and deep-layer shear both present.
These supercells are expected to generally track east-southeastward
while posing a threat for mainly large to very large hail up to
2.5-3.5 inches in diameter. Some risk for severe/damaging winds will
also exist with RFD surges with these intense cells.
..Gleason.. 08/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...
LAT...LON 45680402 45870388 45830328 45530270 43640213 43130210
43070322 43610392 44120403 45680402
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
MD 1936 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565...568... FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1936
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Areas affected...Southern Indiana into northern Kentucky
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565...568...
Valid 112224Z - 120030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565, 568
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and behind an outflow
boundary may pose a transient risk for large hail and/or severe
gusts over the next couple of hours. However, these storms will
likely remain within an environment unfavorable for substantial
intensification and a prolonged severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and radar/visible imagery
depict an outflow boundary rapidly expanding westward as the cold
pool associated with a robust MCS continues to expand. Across
southwest IN, an organized, but compact MCS, southwest of
Indianapolis has shown steadily declining velocities behind a bowing
segment, suggesting that the complex is gradually weakening as it
migrates further east into the cold pool. Additionally, new
convection continues to develop along and behind the outflow
boundary across northern KY. In general, this activity has exhibited
transient intensification as buoyant parcels originating within the
warm sector are quickly displaced into the cold pool.
This trend should generally continue over the next couple of hours
with most model solutions hinting at additional thunderstorm
development through roughly 00-02 UTC. Storm motions into the
cool/stable air mass should continue to limit storm longevity, but
strong deep-layer wind shear across may support periodic storm
organization with an attendant threat for large hail (most likely
around 1 inch) and severe/damaging gusts. Although new watch
issuance will likely not be needed, local expansions may be required
as new convection emerges.
..Moore.. 08/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 38908775 39228786 39558769 39778734 39838693 39788625
38998471 38628443 38278462 37898492 37728533 37758572
37938629 38328706 38628748 38908775
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1935 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO SOUTHERN ND AND FAR NORTHERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1935
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Areas affected...Parts of far southeast MT into southern ND and far
northern SD
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 112218Z - 112345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for watch issuance soon with
widely spaced supercells that have developed this afternoon. Very
large hail and severe gusts may occur with this activity.
DISCUSSION...An intense supercell has developed over far southeast
MT along/near a front extending eastward from a weak surface low
near KBIL, with a separate supercell having also recently developed
over south-central ND near the surface boundary. While surface
temperatures are not overly warm (generally in the 80s), modifying
the 18Z observed BIS sounding for current conditions suggests
minimal MLCIN is present along/south of the boundary in southern ND.
Enhanced mid-level west-northwesterly flow across the northern
Plains is supporting 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear, which will
continue to support supercells in the near term. Mid-level lapse
rates around 7.6 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer observed on the 18Z
BIS sounding and seasonably cool temperatures aloft have fostered
moderate to strong instability across southern ND (MLCAPE around
2000-3000 J/kg). Very large hail potentially up to 2-3 inches in
diameter will be possible with any sustained supercell, and storm
splitting appears probable given the strong westerly deep-layer
shear present/nearly straight mid-level hodographs observed.
Occasional severe gusts may also occur as low-level lapse rates
steepen further. Given ongoing convection, and the potential for
additional activity to develop/move eastward into southwest ND from
southeast MT, watch issuance is being considered soon.
..Gleason/Mosier.. 08/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...BYZ...
LAT...LON 46000400 46080427 46400425 46630399 46880397 47130154
46589801 46029779 45729796 45629853 45630041 45970189
46000400
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
MD 1934 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568... FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky into northeast Tennessee and
adjacent portions of western Virginia and North Carolina
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568...
Valid 112153Z - 120000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe MCS will continue to pose a threat for severe
winds over the next few hours, and will likely exit the southern
edge of WW 568 before a weakening trend occurs. Downstream watch
issuance will likely be needed in the next hour or two to address
any lingering severe wind threat.
DISCUSSION...A severe MCS continues to push south/southeast across
northeastern KY with a history of recently producing winds within
the line between 55-65 mph based on reports/wind observations. The
peak of the bowing segment continues to align with the intersection
of the MCS and a residual outflow boundary/frontal zone draped
southward from eastern KY into the southern Appalachians. To the
west of this boundary, a very buoyant air mass remains in place and
will continue to support the potential for intense convection and
severe gusts over the next couple of hours as the line approaches
the southern edge of WW 568.
Beyond roughly 00 UTC, the general expectation is for the MCS to
begin weakening with time as it moves into an air mass that has
already seen some degree of convective overturning and into a region
with weaker deep-layer wind shear. However, given the
well-established cold pool and some residual buoyancy, it appears
likely that this weakening trend will be gradual with some lingering
threat for severe/damaging wind gusts. Additional downstream watch
issuance will likely be needed in the next hour or two to address
this potential.
..Moore.. 08/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 35258346 35328407 35568447 37348535 37778537 38118505
38228434 38218362 38198304 38078272 37748222 36448179
36008171 35808186 35598209 35358260 35288322 35258346
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MD 1933 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE NE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Areas affected...Parts of the NE Panhandle into southwest NE
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 112142Z - 112345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms which have developed on a weak surface
boundary this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe
hail/gusts. However, watch issuance is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...21Z surface observations and recent visible satellite
imagery show a weak surface boundary draped from the NE Panhandle
into parts of southwest/south-central NE. While large-scale ascent
remains nebulous/weak across this region, modest low-level
convergence along the boundary has been sufficient for widely spaced
thunderstorm development as convective temperatures have been
breached (surface temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s).
Modifying the 18Z LBF sounding for current surface observations
suggest MLCIN has become minimal near this boundary, with ample
MLCAPE to support robust updrafts. Furthermore, modest low-level
winds veer to westerly and strengthen with height through mid-levels
(reference recent KLNX VWP), which will support sufficient
deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Ongoing high-based
convection may pose a threat for both isolated severe hail and gusty
downdraft winds. Still, cooler surface temperatures to the east of
the boundary in NE suggest the presence of stronger MLCIN with
eastward extent, and it remains unclear whether additional
thunderstorms will develop/move off the boundary given nebulous
large-scale forcing. Therefore, expectations are for the overall
severe threat to remain fairly isolated, and watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.
..Gleason/Mosier.. 08/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...CYS...
LAT...LON 41790345 42200349 42240303 41760145 41309982 40839944
40579965 40670059 41480272 41790345
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS TO VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will continue today
across parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Large hail
and severe wind gusts are also forecast over parts of the northern
Plains.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was trimming higher severe
probabilities in the wake of earlier convection that moved through
parts of eastern IL, northern IN, and northwestern OH. With that
said, a risk of severe wind gusts and hail will persist through some
of this corridor -- within a relatively narrow zone of
moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along the southern edge of
outflow-modified air. Refer to Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565 and MCD
1930 for more information.
Farther east, a well-established MCS is tracking southeastward
across southern OH toward northern KY. Over the next few hours,
these storms will continue to pose the greatest risk for a swath of
damaging wind gusts (some upwards of 75 mph) as they track
southeastward along a gradient of strong surface-based buoyancy amid
40 kt of deep-layer shear oriented perpendicular to the
well-established gust front. Additionally, a modest enhancement to
the low-level shear along the buoyancy gradient/baroclinic zone will
continue to support brief mesovortex tornadoes in the near-term. See
MCD 1931 for more information.
Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and only minor
changes were made to the outlook.
..Weinman.. 08/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026/
...IL/IN/OH...
A fast moving and intense bowing MCS is affecting the Chicago metro
area this morning with significant severe wind gusts. This activity
will race east-southeastward across northern IN and eventually
western OH. Increasingly widespread thunderstorms and associated
outflow ahead of this complex lends uncertainty to the evolution of
the bow, and the corridor of greatest damaging wind potential.
Refer to MDs #1921 and #1922 for further details.
...OH/WV/KY/VA...
Another linear MCS is affecting southeast OH, and will spread across
WV and into VA later today. The air mass ahead of this complex is
not as unstable, and considerable uncertainty exists regarding this
system's longevity. Nevertheless, sufficient flow aloft and
mesoscale organization will maintain a risk of damaging wind gusts.
Refer to MD #1923 for further details.
...ND/SD/NE...
Moderately strong westerly flow aloft is present today across the
Dakotas, with a moist and unstable air mass in place over the Black
Hills region. This will likely lead to widely scattered
thunderstorm development by early evening. Supercells capable of
large hail and damaging winds are expected. It is unclear how far
southeast these storms will maintain intensity, but model guidance
suggests at least into central SD before weakening overnight.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT
RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the central
High Plains into the Ohio Valley.
...Central Plains into Middle Ohio Valley...
Moderate to strong destabilization near and south of the surface
boundary appears possible by the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be
stronger with eastern extent, but still mostly along and to the
north of the boundary. Given this flow orientation, convection will
likely tend to train along the front. Isolated strong gusts and wind
damage are the main concern, particularly with any clusters that can
develop and move into more buoyant air south of the boundary.
Additional storm development is probable as the low-level jet
intensifies during the evening, though storms will be more elevated
by that point.
...Front Range...
Moist easterly flow into the higher terrain will promote scattered
storm development during the afternoon, perhaps aided by a subtle
shortwave perturbation. While cloud cover may temper surface
heating, steep mid-level lapse rates will allow for 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will be marginal, but a few strong to
marginally severe storms may produce isolated severe winds and hail.
...Northeast...
Wind fields aloft will strengthen as a mid-level jet crosses over
the region on Thursday. Despite long hodographs, drier conditions
(50s F dewpoints with perhaps pockets of low 60s F) will limit
destabilization along with weak to modest mid-level lapse rates. A
few stronger gusts and small hail could occur with the stronger
activity, but severe-caliber potential still appears low.
..Wendt.. 08/11/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
Only minor adjustments were made to the risk areas for Day
2/Wednesday; otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Farther
south, a few isolated thunderstorms may develop in the late
afternoon to overnight hours west of the Sierra Crest (HREF/REFS
5-10% probabilities), and along the southern/central California
coastal regions. While ERCs are currently between the 80-90th
percentiles, increasing monsoonal moisture should provide some
relief to the fuelscape in the coming days. Forecast soundings
depict PWATs will approach 1" or greater with LCL-EL winds less than
15 kts, insinuating accumulating rainfall is possible. However,
profiles portray a dry sub-cloud layer in the Valleys and adjacent
foothills, which may limit precipitation efficiency. Lightning
ignitions cannot be ruled out on the periphery of accumulating
rainfall where receptive fuels exist. See the previous discussion
for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing encroaches into the Pacific Northwest and
northern CA coast on D2/Wednesday as upper ridging begins to shift
eastward. The trough and increasing moisture from the Pacific will
aid in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm development across higher
terrain of northwestern MT, ID Panhandle and northeastern WA
Wednesday afternoon. Breezy and dry conditions north of more robust
monsoon moisture across the Southwest will promote an elevated fire
weather threat for parts of northeastern CA and adjacent OR/NV as
well as the Upper Snake River Plain. A surface low across the
central Plains will bolster southerly winds across the Southern High
Plains, promoting elevated fire weather concerns for portions of the
TX Panhandle, northwestern OK and southwestern KS.
...Southern Plains...
Hot and dry conditions will persist south of a frontal boundary over
northern KS on D2/Wednesday. A parent surface low over western KS
will enhance southerly winds across much of the Southern Plains by
Wednesday afternoon. The southerly winds of around 15 mph, RH
dropping to as low as 10% amid a drought stressed fuelscape will
promote an elevated fire weather threat for portions of the TX
Panhandle, northwestern OK and adjacent southern KS. Elevated
highlights were adjusted westward based on latest model guidance and
expected fuel conditions.
...Northeastern Washington, Idaho Panhandle and Northwestern
Montana...
Thunderstorms are expected across neighboring higher terrain to the
north of the Columbia Basin Wednesday afternoon as increasing
mid/upper level moisture accompanies a deepening trough across the
Pacific Northwest. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will likely
evolve as PWATs reach into the 0.80-1.00 inch range amid
increasingly instability. However, fuels remain quite receptive with
ERCs still reaching into the 90-95th percentiles so concerns for new
ignitions remain. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights
were warranted given ongoing fire activity in the Pacific Northwest.
...Northeastern California, northwestern Nevada and far southern
Oregon...
Flow aloft will back to the southwest over the Great Basin as the
upper trough pushes into the West Coast and broader ridge slides
eastward. A very dry residual boundary layer and developing westerly
winds of up to 15 mph during peak afternoon heating will support
elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels across northeastern
CA, northwestern NV and southern OR. Farther east, similar
west/southwest winds of around 15 mph and RH as low as 15% will
support an enhanced fire weather threat for the Upper Snake River
Plain in ID. Introduced Elevated fire weather highlights for both of
these areas as deeper monsoon moisture remains to the south at least
for Wednesday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
As troughing builds across the western CONUS, high pressure will
gradually translate eastward and settle into the Southeast this
weekend. As a result, hot, dry, and breezy conditions will promote
fire concerns across portions of the southern Plains, and contribute
to the drying of fuels into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As
monsoonal moisture continues to advect northward, daily chances for
thunderstorms are expected throughout the Desert Southwest, Great
Basin, and Colorado Rockies. Upper troughing and embedded
disturbances over the West should encourage thunderstorms and
wetting rain potential across much of the Rocky Mountain chain into
the High Plains.
...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday...
...Northwestern CONUS...
Troughing will settle over the western CONUS, encouraging monsoonal
moisture to advect northward. Embedded disturbances within
southwesterly to southerly flow aloft amid sufficient instability
will generate 5-15% probabilities of isolated afternoon
thunderstorms across portions of the Northwest. While thunderstorms
will be a mix of wet/dry, given a highly sensitive fuelscape,
lightning ignitions will remain a concern for the foreseeable
future. As such, 10% Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been
adjusted on Day 3/Thursday to overlap areas not likely to receive
plentiful rainfall in the coming days. On Day 4/Friday, 10% Dry
Thunderstorm probabilities were introduced across the
Klamath-Siskiyou region where meteorological conditions support
high-based thunderstorms within an area of receptive fuels.
Additional probabilities may be needed in future outlook cycles as
thunderstorm potential continues across the Pacific Northwest
through the weekend.
...Southern High Plains...
High pressure will elongate across the Central U.S. into the
Southeast on Day 3/Wednesday, expanding northward and eventually
centering back over the central/southern Plains late in the forecast
period. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will persist across portions
of western Oklahoma, the TX/OK Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas
where fuels are growing increasingly receptive. As such, 40%
Critical probabilities remain on Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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