Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and
southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave will translate eastward across the central
Rockies on D2/Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will move
through the northern High Plains while a secondary stationary front
remains in place from the Carolinas through the Tennessee Valley
into Ozark Plateau. A few strong to severe storms capable of large
hail and damaging wind will be possible near the front range in
Colorado.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Upslope flow into eastern Colorado will combine with modest
upper-level forcing for ascent to allow for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms near the high terrain. Steep lapse rates,
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear around 30-35 kts from
south of I-70 will allow for a few better organized cells capable of
large hail and damaging wind. This threat will decrease with eastern
extent into KS/OK where strengthening MLCIN will temper the severe
threat downstream.

Additional areas of scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
across southern Oklahoma into northern/central Texas and across far
western Texas in the afternoon. Generally weak deep layer shear
should limit the severe risk. A few instances of gusty winds and
small hail will be possible.

...Elsewhere...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains near the upper-low. Weak moisture
and limited instability will likely keep storms sub-severe. Widely
scattered thunderstorms will also be likely south of the stationary
front from the Carolinas into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys.
While marginal instability will be in place, weak deep layer shear
profiles will lead to more disorganized storms and limit the overall
severe threat.

..Thornton.. 05/20/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions
of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging
wind.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave will move across the central Plains on D3/Friday. A
weak lee low will develop across northeastern New
Mexico/southeastern Colorado, with a dryline extending from the
OK/TX Panhandles into southwestern Texas. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected along and east of the dryline by Friday afternoon, with
potential for large hail and damaging wind.

...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of southwestern Kansas,
western Oklahoma, and northwestern Texas...
While there remains some uncertainty in the exact eastward placement
of the dryline Friday afternoon, guidance continues to suggest
eroding MLCIN and potential for convective development by the
afternoon as weak ascent spreads across KS into northern OK. Ahead
of the dryline, the environment will be characterized by steep low
to mid-level lapse rates and moderate to strong instability. Deep
layer shear around 30-35 kts would support potential for initial
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind. Clustering and
more multi-cell mixed mode thunderstorms may evolve into a damaging
wind threat through time.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected south of a
stationary boundary extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into
Tennessee and south into northern Georgia. Though weak to moderate
instability will be in place, weak flow aloft and weak deep layer
shear will likely keep storms sub-severe.

..Thornton.. 05/20/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential will remain low through the extended period. Weak
troughing will continue across the central Plains through the
weekend before height rises begin across the central US with a high
amplitude ridge settling in from the west. This pattern will remain
in place through early to middle of next week. Slow moisture return
will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with
occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but
generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm
potential low through D8/Wednesday.