Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east
and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into
the central Plains, with another shortwave in its wake over central
WY. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward,
reaching MO by this afternoon before then pivoting more
northeastward from the Mid MS Valley into Lower MI. This progression
will be accompanied by a strengthening of the mid-level flow as it
spreads from the central Plains into the OH and TN Valleys. 

A surface low, recently analyzed over central KS, will accompany the
lead shortwave as well, moving rapidly northeastward across MO and
IL before ending the period over Lower MI. A cold front attendant to
this low will sweep eastward across the Ozarks and southeastward
across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. A large area of
elevated thunderstorms is expected from the Arklatex into the Mid MS
Valley, supported by strong southwesterly low-level flow and
associated warm-air advection ahead of the front. More intense and
potentially severe storms are anticipated along and ahead of the
front across central/east TX and western LA.

...Central/East TX...Western LA...
Recent surface analysis placed mid 50s dewpoints as far north as the
TX Big Country, with 60s dewpoints farther south in the TX Hill
Country. Low-level moisture advection is forecast to continue
throughout the day, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching the Red River
and low 60s dewpoints likely reaching the Metroplex vicinity ahead
of the cold front. Primary thunderstorm activity is anticipated
along the front as it interacts with the modestly moist and buoyant
airmass ahead of it. Moderate mid-level flow is expected, but the
fast-moving front will still likely lead to a prevalence of undercut
updrafts. Even so, sufficient deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) could
support a few stronger clusters as a broken line develops and surges
south. Isolated hail, and perhaps some damaging gusts are possible
as the front moves quickly toward the coast and reaches the Gulf
early Sunday morning.

There is a low-probability chance that thunderstorms develop from
the TX Hill Country into the Brazos Valley during the afternoon,
supported by low-level confluence within a diurnally destabilized
airmass. If any of these updrafts are able to mature, there is
enough low-level curvature to support transient supercell structures
along with occasionally organized multicells. A brief tornado and
marginally severe hail are possible with any stronger,
longer-duration updrafts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 11/29/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east
and southeast Texas into western Louisiana through tonight.

...Central/East/Southeast Texas into Western Louisiana...
A mid-level shortwave trough over the Plains this morning will
continue to progress quickly east-northeastward today across the mid
MS Valley/Midwest and OH Valley. A related surface low over eastern
KS will likewise develop northeastward towards IL by this evening,
with an attendant cold front sweeping south-southeastward across
OK/TX and the ArkLaTex through tonight. Low-level warm/moist
advection will continue to aid the northward transport of a
partially modified Gulf airmass over portions of central/east TX and
perhaps western LA. Thunderstorms should eventually develop by late
afternoon/early evening along the front across north-central TX and
vicinity, even though large-scale ascent will remain nebulous behind
the departing mid-level shortwave trough.

Filtered daytime heating will result in modest destabilization
across the warm sector today, although mid-level lapse rates are not
expected to remain modest. Sufficient deep-layer shear associated
with a subtropical/southern branch of a mid/upper-level jet should
support some updraft organization. Hail and strong/gusty winds may
occur with the stronger cores that can develop and be sustained.
But, the surging cold front will likely undercut convection fairly
quickly. There also appears to be some chance for isolated
thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front from parts of central
into southeast TX late this afternoon. The large-scale forcing for
ascent with southward extent will remain weak/nebulous at best, but
low-level confluence may aid in convective initiation across this
area. If these thunderstorms can develop, they would have access to
greater instability and sufficient low-level shear to pose some
threat for a tornado or two. However, the overall environment still
supports maintaining a Marginal Risk given the departing shortwave
trough and related large-scale forcing, modest lapse rates aloft,
and tendency for the low-level flow to gradually weaken/veer with
time through this evening and tonight.

..Gleason/Moore.. 11/29/2025

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 291700Z - 301200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 11/29/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough and related surface cyclone will advance
east-northeastward from the central CONUS to the Great Lakes through
the period. A related cold front will move southward across the
southern Plains, with strong northerly surface winds in its wake.
However, a minimal overlap between the strongest post-frontal
surface winds and low RH will limit fire-weather concerns --
especially given recent and upcoming precipitation. 

Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across parts of
the Southeast in response to the evolving surface low. Around 10-15
mph sustained southeasterly surface winds and 25-35 percent RH may
yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...