Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
WESTERN OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with significant wind gusts,
large hail, and an isolated tornado threat are expected this
afternoon and evening across parts of the northern Plains.  A couple
of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible across the
Ozarks region.

...MT/WY/Dakotas...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough
over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward
through the northern High Plains through tonight.  Surface
mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal
zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far
western ND.  Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the
boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the
vicinity of the Big Horns.  Relatively steep low-level lapse rates
on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE
values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once
storms begin to mature.  A linear cluster is expected to evolve
during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the
early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and
becoming more widespread.  Have increased the intensity highlight
from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems
increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow
echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs
this morning.  This model signal appears reasonable given the
co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level
support.  It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak
gusts may range 85-100 mph.  Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk
but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run
continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features.  This
activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual
lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it
moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late.  

...Ozarks...
A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances
from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this
morning.  An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level
winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this
afternoon.  The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of
stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb.  Heating of a very moist airmass
with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few
weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating.  A couple
of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with
this activity.

...Eastern VA/NC...
A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA
this morning.  A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing
will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast VA and northeast NC.  The strongest of these cells could
produce gusty winds.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/07/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and perhaps a brief
tornado and damaging gusts are possible Monday afternoon and evening
in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and into the Nebraska
Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur
from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will pivot northward across central Canada with
temporary height rises over the Plains. Moderate southwest flow
aloft will persist from the central Rockies into the northern Plains
during the day as an area of high pressure modifies there. To the
south, low pressure will develop from the central to southern High
Plains, with surface winds veering to easterly over KS/NE and into
eastern CO and WY late. Ample moisture will exist with the zone of
backed easterly flow, and this moist/unstable air mass will
accelerate westward during the evening as 850 winds increase ahead
of a secondary wave moving into the Rockies overnight. A weak
surface trough will also remain over the mid MO Valley, just east of
the western Dakotas surface high.

Elsewhere, a weak midlevel wave will persist into the middle MS and
lower OH Valleys, providing a focus for thunderstorms within the
moist air mass.

...Central Plains...
An area of moderate instability will develop across the central
Plains as strong heating occurs and low-level winds increase out of
the east. Storms are most likely to develop near the higher terrain
from eastern WY into eastern CO, and on the interface of the steeper
low-level lapse rates and moistening/upslope air mass. Favorable
effective shear near 50 kt and steep lapse rates will clearly favor
supercells initially with large damaging hail, with areas of
wind-driven hail as storms evolve eastward through early evening.
Low-level winds veering height may also support a brief tornado or
two. The most concentrated area of severe storms will be from
northeast CO into western NE, but sporadic cells may occur as far
north as the Black Hills area. Finally, a few cells may develop
within the hot inverted-v environment into the TX Panhandle/western
OK during the afternoon with locally damaging gusts.

..Far Northern Plains...
Late Monday night into Tuesday morning, warm/moist advection will
accelerate ahead of the developing trough over the Rockies. Models
are a bit uncertain, but potential will exist for elevated storms
with hail potential over eastern MT into northwest MN as lift and
instability increase.

...Southeast MO into western TN...
A slow-moving midlevel trough should again provide a focus for storm
development, as deep moisture is maintained and areas of heating
occur. New development is most likely to occur with any existing
MCV, or near differential heating zones. Locally strong low-level
shear is anticipated which may aid brief/weak tornado potential.

..Jewell.. 06/07/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071700Z - 081200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT
BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...

...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies...
Dry southwesterly flow ahead of a surface cold front draped over the
Great Basin and related upper-level trough moving into the Northern
Rockies will bring a broad fire weather threat to much of the
Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies today. A corridor
stronger southwest winds of 20-25 mph (locally 30 mph in favored
terrain areas) combined with a deep, dry boundary layer supporting
RH of 5-15% this afternoon will bring Critical fire weather
conditions from northern AZ into southeastern UT, Western Slope of
CO and into south-central WY.

Introduction of some mid-level moisture from the advancing trough, a
weak frontal boundary and presence of a relative mid-level flow
maxima and associated increased shear should bring a dry
thunderstorm potential to portions of central/northeastern UT into
southwestern WY where a dry-sub cloud layer will be maintained.
Isolated high-based thunderstorms with minimal surface rainfall over
dry fuels will present a heightened ignition potential this
afternoon, in addition to dry and breezy conditions. The western
extent of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights was trimmed based on
latest model guidance consensus.

...Snake River Plain...
Cooler, but very dry post-frontal conditions are expected in the
Snake River Plain and adjacent foothills of southern ID today.
Strong westerly winds at the base of the mid-level trough will reach
20-30 mph this afternoon in southern ID. These winds merged with RH
of 5-15% by peak afternoon mixing and dry fuels will bring several
hours of Critical fire weather conditions to the Snake River Plain.
Critical and Elevated highlights were extended slightly eastward
accounting latest forecast guidance.

..Williams.. 06/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/

...Synopsis...
A longwave mid-level trough will remain situated over the
northwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday, with a shortwave
trough moving across the northern Rockies. The attendant surface low
and cold front will result in breezy conditions across portions of
the Great Basin, southwestern CONUS, and northern Rockies with low
RH values and critically dry fuels.

...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies...

Ahead of the cold front, strong vertical mixing and a tight pressure
gradient will result in gusty winds to 25-35 mph along with 5-15%
RH. Poor overnight RH recovery across much of the area is expected
to contribute to critically dry fuels across the region. For these
reasons, a Critical area has been maintained in this outlook.
Additionally, the cold front may provide enough lift and mid-level
moisture for thunderstorm development across portions of Utah to
central Wyoming. Given low precipitable water values and relatively
fast storm motions, some Isolated Dry Thunder may occur in this
region.

...Snake River Plain...

Beneath the departing mid-level jet max, a relatively localized area
of Critical conditions is expected in the Snake River Plain in Idaho
colocated. Here, strong vertical mixing will result in winds of
25-35 mph along with 10-15% RH. Dry fuels in this region mean that a
Critical area is warranted.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...