No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 13 21:50:02 UTC 2026.MD 1612 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1612
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Areas affected...Portions of the central and eastern Florida
Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132124Z - 132330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and move
southeastward across the central FL Peninsula through this evening,
accompanied by damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.
DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures in the low 90s combined with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s are yielding a moderately unstable
environment ahead of a cluster of congealing thunderstorms moving
southeast across the central FL Peninsula late this afternoon.
Low-level lapse rates peaking near 7.5 C/km, storm mergers, and a
deepening cold pool will continue to support a threat of severe,
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph through at least 23Z. Given the
localized nature of the threat, a watch is not expected at this
time.
..Barnes/Smith.. 07/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 28508104 28978054 28868039 27908003 27308046 27258116
27438167 27678183 27938190 28238168 28508104
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 1611 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Areas affected...parts of southeastern through central Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131954Z - 132230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered intensifying thunderstorms
are increasingly probable by 3-5 PM MST, accompanied by a few
strong, but generally localized, downbursts.
DISCUSSION...A modestly deep-mixed boundary layer is evolving, with
continued daytime heating. Surface temperature/dew point spreads
are increasing in excess of 30-35 degrees F, as temperatures warm
through the 90s. Latest objective analysis suggests that this
environment is also becoming characterized by modest instability,
with CAPE now on the order of 1000 J/kg across the deserts around
Tucson, northwestward toward the Greater Phoenix vicinity.
In response to this destabilization, deepening convection is evident
across the higher terrain of southeastern Arizona, as well as along
the Mogollon Rim vicinity, beneath 10-15 kt southeasterly deep-layer
mean flow. Over the next few hours, scattered thunderstorms appear
likely to continue to initiate and gradually intensify while
propagating northwestward across southeastern into central Arizona.
As it does, the most vigorous cells will pose increasing potential
to produce generally localized strong downbursts during the peak
late afternoon heating.
It is possible that orographic forcing near the Rim could support a
bit more notable upscale growth or clustering of convection, but
steering flow may not support much, if any, propagation and
intensification away from the higher terrain.
..Kerr.. 07/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 34551179 33491015 32770954 31550936 31411065 32051108
33531243 34031246 34551179
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated strong to severe winds are still
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Southeast,
southern into central Arizona, and Montana.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged, with only minor
changes made to the thunder/severe probabilities to reflect the
latest observations and guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 07/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026/
An expansive upper ridge over the northern Plains will dominate the
weather across the US today, with only small areas of risk of severe
storms.
...FL/GA...
A hot and humid air mass is present today over the FL Peninsula into
parts of southeast GA/SC. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are
expected to form in this regime, with the strongest cells capable of
gusty/damaging winds.
...AZ...
Widespread convection yesterday has resulted in a moist boundary
layer across southern AZ, where strong heating will occur again
today. This will lead to another round of scattered storms moving
off the higher terrain of eastern AZ and speading westward into the
Deserts. A few of the storms may produce gusty/damaging winds.
...MT...
Morning CAM solutions are consistent on the forecast of a cluster of
high-based thunderstorms forming over the mountains of southern MT
and tracking north-northeastward during the evening. Forecast
soundings would support some risk of a gusty/damaging winds in these
storms.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and
evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
western and central Montana.
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the CONUS on
Tuesday. A strong upper trough will move into New England during the
evening/overnight along with a surface cold front. Additional
moderate mid-level flow will be present over the northern Rockies
along with weaker shortwave troughs moving through the region.
...New England...
Strong northwesterly flow aloft will be present at the start of the
forecast period. Models suggest that a subtle perturbation may be
moving through the region early in the day. Some convection may be
associated with this feature, though the expectation is that this
activity will be weakening with time. Any cloud cover from this
activity would delay surface heating in some areas. Nevertheless,
heating/moistening ahead of the cold front appears more than
sufficient for severe storm development by late afternoon into the
evening. Initial development will likely occur in southern Quebec
along the front and move into New England. The strongest forcing for
ascent within the region will also be after 03Z. 2500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE near the Canadian border during the late afternoon with
around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE persisting into early evening across parts
of New England. Linear forcing along the cold front will not be
overly strong and large component of the 50+ kt of effective shear
will be perpendicular to this boundary. Supercell structures will be
favored, though bowing structures may also develop due to storm
interactions or locally greater linear forcing. Large hail,
including potential for 2+ in. with supercells, is possible.
Severe/damaging winds are also expected. Bowing segments that
develop will have potential for significant wind gusts. Low-level
hodographs will also support a threat for a few tornadoes. A strong
tornado is possible, but will be conditional on a discrete supercell
persisting into the early evening.
...Montana...
Development of a surface low in parts of eastern Montana/Wyoming
will draw low-level moisture westward along a stalled surface
boundary. Additionally, mid-level moisture will increase from the
southwest around the western edge of the upper-level ridge. This,
coupled with a shortwave trough during the late afternoon, will
promote widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms within the
higher terrain of southwest/central Montana. Around 30-35 kt of
effective shear will promote a mix of marginal supercells and linear
segments. Moisture will be more modest with western extent and
outflow production will be more efficient. This should generally
lead to more linear modes quickly. Buoyancy will also be modest
(750-1250 J/kg MUCAPE) given 50s F dewpoints into western Montana.
North of the surface low there will likely be a belt of greater
surface moisture (low 60s F, potentially) that advects into the
higher terrain of central Montana. Here, a couple of supercells
could develop and be surface based. This could also be an area where
linear structures could better organize due to more moist inflow. At
present time, this more favorable environment appears too spatially
limited for an increase in wind/hail probabilities.
..Wendt.. 07/13/2026
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