Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 01/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026/

...Discussion...
A progressive upper-flow pattern will continue over the CONUS with
some amplification occurring through tonight within split flow over
the West. Convective potential will be essentially nil over the
CONUS.

A southern-stream shortwave trough off the coast of California will
spread southeastward toward Baja, with any related
thunderstorm-conducive environment expected to remain well offshore.
Multiple shortwave troughs will cross or approach the Pacific
Northwest tonight. Cooling mid-level temperatures may contribute to
weak buoyancy and some potential for a few lightning flashes, but
such potential is likely to remain below 10 percent.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas
and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi
Valley.

...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...

Guidance has come into relatively better agreement with the timing
and overall evolution of a compact midlevel impulse and accompanying
surface low ejecting northeastward from the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes through the period. This will result in the
development of an expansive warm sector characterized by partially
modified Gulf moisture and somewhat cool surface temperatures. Given
poor/modest lapse rates, buoyancy will remain fairly limited --
especially with northward extent. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer
flow/shear will overspread the warm sector, resulting in an
expansive area of conditional severe potential.

Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms with a risk of marginally
severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be spreading
east-northeastward from the southern Plains into the lower/middle MS
Valley at the start of the period. There will be some potential for
this activity to become surface-based and intensify as it tracks
east-northeastward though the afternoon, though this will be largely
dependent on the degree of surface heating in the warm sector. If
storms can root at the surface, a mesoscale corridor of higher
severe potential will be possible -- posing a risk of severe wind
gusts and perhaps a tornado. 

Thunderstorms will generally spread northeastward toward the lower
OH Valley in tandem with the surface low through the day, and severe
potential becomes more uncertain with northward extent (given the
low CAPE/high shear parameter space). A small northward expansion of
severe probabilities was made where near-surface-based storms will
be possible amid strengthening low-level flow/shear, and depending
on destabilization, further expansions will be possible.

..Weinman.. 01/06/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 01/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow
(Wednesday), supporting surface low development over the southern
High Plains. While moisture return is anticipated over the southern
Plains, some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of
western Texas, as well as the central High Plains. In these
aforementioned areas, sustained westerly winds may briefly exceed 15
mph. However, guidance varies in terms of how low RH will dip by
afternoon peak heating, with some guidance showing RH reaching 20
percent in some spots, with other members showing RH only dipping
into the 25-30 percent range on a widespread basis. Given dry fuels,
locally Elevated conditions are possible, but do not seem widespread
enough to warrant highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...