Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail
threat, are possible across portions of the northern and central
Plains, as well as the eastern Great Basin today and tonight.

...Northern Plains...
An upper low over SK is forecast to eject eastward as it is
entrained in the stronger westerlies associated with a low-amplitude
shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced
mid-level flow will extend westward over the Intermountain West and
northern Great Basin, coincident with a plume of mid-level monsoon
moisture. A surface low  will develop during the afternoon from near
the MT/ND border with a trailing cold front forecast to move across
the Dakotas overnight. A weaker low/surface trough will develop
across the central High Plains as a warm front extends eastward from
SD into southern MN, WI and Lower MI.

Morning storms along the warm front from the eastern Dakotas to
western MN could persist and pose a risk for isolated hail. The
primary low-level jet will remain displaced to the south which
should allow these storms to weaken through the remainder of the
day.

More robust convection is expected to develop ahead of the cold
front from eastern MT/WY into the western and central Dakotas. Weak
low-level easterly flow will help transport mid 60s dewpoints
westward aiding in moderate destabilization. Flow aloft will
increase through the day, though the strongest deep-layer shear
should lag behind the front. Nevertheless, a band of storms, likely
a mix of line segments and some supercell structures, should develop
and intensify along the cold front spreading eastward. Some severe
gusts, hail above 1.00" and perhaps a tornado near the warm front
are possible. The severe risk may persist through the night as
activity pushes across ND/SD and into MN.

..Front Range to the High Plains...
As the trough moves overhead through the day, high based convection
is forecast to develop and move off the higher terrain of CO/WY,
aided by 30-40 kt mid-level westerlies. Steep low-level lapse rates
and high cloud bases may support localized damaging wind potential
across CO/NE/KS. Some organization into a cluster is possible as the
storms move eastward into the Plains through the evening. However,
modest buoyancy may inhibit broader intensification/organization.

...Great Basin/Western Slope...
An unseasonably moist air mass (dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F)
will be in place beneath the stronger mid-level flow from eastern UT
into western CO. Showers and storms are likely to be ongoing at the
start of the period and should increase in coverage trough the day
aided by filtered diurnal heating and the passage of the shortwave
trough crossing the Rockies. While destabilization will be
contingent on cloud breaks, pockets of moderate buoyancy amid the
strong unidirectional westerly flow may support a few organized
storm clusters or supercells capable of isolated severe gusts and
hail.

...AZ/CA...
Scattered thunderstorms are again expected to develop within a hot
and moderately unstable air mass this afternoon. Stronger mid-level
flow should be well to the north supporting little if any storm
organization. Still, steep low-level lapse rates could support
sporadic downbursts with occasional severe gusts. Severe coverage is
expected to remain below 5%.

..Lyons/Wendt.. 08/30/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Sparse severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are
possible tomorrow (Monday) from the central Plains toward parts of
the Midwest.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the central and eastern
CONUS tomorrow (Sunday), with at least one low-amplitude mid-level
trough and several other smaller-scale impulses poised to pivot
around the upper ridge, overspreading the central High Plains to the
Northeast in the process. Given the presence of these impulses atop
a moist boundary layer, at least isolated thunderstorms are expected
all along the northern periphery of the ridge. While thunderstorms
will be more sparse over parts of the central Plains to the Midwest,
cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft overspreading the
aforementioned moist boundary layer will foster enough buoyancy and
shear to support a conditional severe threat.

...Central Plains to the Midwest...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley
while a smaller mid-level impulse impinges on the central High
Plains after dark. As such, upper support will be limited along an
effective warm frontal boundary extending from central NE to far
western WI during the day. Along this boundary, surface dewpoints
should exceed 70 F as 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are advected
overhead from the west, yielding 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore,
modest westerly mid-level flow will also contribute to 35-40 kts of
effective bulk shear, which is more than adequate for multicells and
supercells should a storm develop and mature. Severe wind and hail
would be the main threats with such a storm. Despite the favorable
kinematic and thermodynamic parameter space, the severe threat
remains quite conditional given the lack of upper support, as
suggested by CAMS, which show little in the way of storm coverage.
Given doubts on more than sparse storm coverage, only Marginal Risk
probabilities remain in place.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...Synopsis...
Moderate to strong mid-level flow across parts of the
central/northern High Plains will promote a surface trough from the
northern Plains southward into the southern High Plains. Near this
trough, strong heating and mixing will allow RH to drop to around
20-25% from the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and
south-central Kansas. Modestly enhanced winds just above the surface
will help drive 15-20 mph winds (with stronger gusts) across these
areas. Areas of drought-stressed fuels will continue to support the
development of elevated fire weather concerns during the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 08/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...