WW 395 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 252245Z - 260500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
545 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West-Central Arkansas
Far East-Central Oklahoma
* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 545 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm cluster currently moving through
east-central Oklahoma is expected to continue southeastward into
west-central Arkansas this evening. Environmental conditions support
the potential for continued strong to severe wind gusts and isolated
large hail across the region this evening/tonight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles northwest of
Fort Smith AR to 20 miles south southeast of Russellville AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 391...WW 392...WW
393...WW 394...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Mosier
WW 394 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 252155Z - 260500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
555 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Eastern Ohio
Western and Central Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and Friday morning from 555
PM until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to persist for at least the
next several hours across the region in an environment that supports
storm organization. Primary severe threat is large hail, although
some isolated damaging gusts are possible as well. A low-probability
tornado risk also exists, especially with any storms that interact
with any residual surface boundaries.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast
of Franklin PA to 45 miles southeast of Wheeling WV. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 391...WW 392...WW 393...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Mosier
WW 393 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 252035Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Oklahoma
Texas Panhandle and South Plains
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Higher-based storms including a few supercells are
expected to develop regionally through late afternoon and early
evening, with the potential evolution of one or more semi-organized
linear clusters this evening into western Oklahoma.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast
of Borger TX to 50 miles south southeast of Lubbock TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 391...WW 392...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Guyer
WW 392 TORNADO KS OK TX 252000Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Kansas
Northern Oklahoma
Northeast Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
SUMMARY...Initially, a cluster of storms will pose a severe threat
through mid/late afternoon across northeast Oklahoma, with
additional peripheral storm development possible. Meanwhile, an
outflow boundary will continue to stall and modify, with potential
severe-storm/supercell development across southwest Kansas and the
eastern Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into northwest Oklahoma through
this evening, where all severe hazards are possible including
tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Liberal KS to
10 miles south southeast of Grove OK. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 391...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 29025.
...Guyer
WW 391 SEVERE TSTM WY 251940Z - 260200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Wyoming
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to
further develop and pose a severe-wind gust threat toward eastern
Wyoming.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Rawlins WY to 25 miles north of Torrington WY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Guyer
WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0395 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0394 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0393 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0393 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0392 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 392
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/25/26
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TSA...OUN...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 392
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-067-069-077-081-083-093-095-097-119-
129-151-175-187-189-191-252140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS FINNEY FORD
GRANT GRAY HARPER
HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY
KINGMAN KIOWA MEADE
MORTON PRATT SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS SUMNER
OKC001-003-007-011-021-035-037-041-043-045-047-053-059-071-073-
083-093-097-103-105-113-115-117-119-129-131-143-145-147-151-153-
252140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALFALFA BEAVER
BLAINE CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE DEWEY
ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT
WW 0391 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 391
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/25/26
ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 391
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WYC001-007-009-015-019-021-025-027-031-252140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CARBON CONVERSE
GOSHEN JOHNSON LARAMIE
NATRONA NIOBRARA PLATTE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1321 CONCERNING TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 392...393... FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle into
western Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 392...393...
Valid 252315Z - 260045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 392, 393 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts is increasing across
portions of western Oklahoma.
DISCUSSION...Several previously discrete supercells have begun to
cluster/grow upscale across the northeastern Texas Panhandle and far
northwestern Oklahoma over the past 30-60 minutes. With dewpoint
depressions of 20-25+ F favoring continued cold pool development and
consolidation, expectation is for this activity to continue to
consolidate into a forward-propagating cluster as it progresses
east-southeastward into western Oklahoma. Moderate to strong
instability (2000-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and around 40 kts of effective
shear will favor a continued severe threat and an attendant increase
in the threat for a swath of damaging wind gusts (some 75+ mph).
Occasional large hail and perhaps a brief tornado will also remain
possible with any stronger embedded cores/supercell structures.
..Chalmers.. 06/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...
LAT...LON 36260049 36490019 36609974 36639954 36639891 36499846
36229822 35949816 35559822 35269853 35149896 35139947
35190004 35360044 35440063 35700081 35970077 36260049
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 1320 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391... FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1320
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming and adjacent counties of
southwest Nebraska and northeast Colorado
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...
Valid 252254Z - 260030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391
continues.
SUMMARY...A convective band with a well formed cold pool will
continue developing southeastward with occasional severe gusts into
southeast Wyoming and adjacent counties in Nebraska/Colorado.
DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours convection has evolved into a
well formed leading convective band/trailing stratiform rain
configuration, and wind profiles are helping maintain updrafts along
the gust front. The storms will likely persist for another 2-3
hours while moving southeastward across southeast WY where slightly
warmer temperatures/moisture persist at relatively high elevation,
compared to cooler temperatures farther east at lower elevation into
the NE Panhandle. Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph will
be the main threats through 01z. While eastward progress of the
stronger storms will be limited by weakening buoyancy with eastward
extent into NE, the storms could persist into parts of
north/northeast CO with a low-end severe wind threat through about
03z. Since the potential area affected outside of the existing
watch in WY) is small, the need for a downstream watch is not clear.
..Thompson.. 06/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41910399 41470344 40650353 40450420 40570509 41240585
41510590 41900531 42390494 42630477 42630440 41910399
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1319 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 392... FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1319
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of the eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle...northeastern Texas Panhandle...and northwestern Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 392...
Valid 252207Z - 252330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues.
SUMMARY...A discrete supercell in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle
will pose a risk primarily for large to very large hail and damaging
wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. The tornado risk with this storm
remains more uncertain.
DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has intensified along a remnant
outflow boundary in Beaver County, Oklahoma over the past hour. A
couple of tornadoes have been reported with this cell, and MRMS and
other MESH estimates have ranged up to 4+ inches over the past 30-60
minutes. Given the favorable environment and the potential for this
cell to remain largely discrete for another hour or two before it
potentially interacts with convection to the southwest, large to
very large hail (potentially up to 2+ inches in diameter) and
damaging wind gusts will remain possible with this supercell.
Bunkers right motion and the recent track of the supercell suggest
that it may remain along the remnant outflow boundary. In this
scenario, tornado potential will remain greater given the favorable
low-level shear along/north of the outflow boundary (100+ 0-500 m
SRH sampled by the VNX VAD profile). Should this supercell attain
more of a southeastward track, however, it would encounter a drier,
more well-mixed boundary layer exists (MLLCLs exceeding 2 km per
latest objective analysis and the 18z AMA observed sounding), which
would result in a lower tornado threat.
..Chalmers.. 06/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...
LAT...LON 36530036 36680037 36840020 36839993 36779957 36699933
36569926 36429923 36299942 36309980 36380013 36480036
36530036
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 1318 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Areas affected...Northeastern Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 252205Z - 252330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for a few strong to severe gusts and hail
will continue spreading east-southeastward in the near term.
DISCUSSION...Aided by a remnant MCV and midlevel trough moving
across eastern KS, a long-lived cluster of thunderstorms is tracking
east-southeastward across northeastern OK this afternoon. Given the
well-established cold pool, around 35 kt of 0-6 km shear (per INX
VWP), and a warm/moist PBL immediately downstream, strong to severe
wind gusts and sporadic severe hail will remain possible in the near
term. However, as the cluster of storms becomes increasingly
displaced from the MCV/midlevel trough and related enhancement to
the deep-layer shear (much weaker flow from SRX VWP), a gradual
weakening trend is expected over the next few hours. Therefore, a
downstream watch is not currently expected, though convective trends
are being monitored.
..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 35439497 35739567 35969578 36289558 36489528 36459454
36289399 35919343 35549346 35229388 35439497
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...WYOMING...AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening
across parts of the southern/central Plains, with large hail and
severe winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential
may exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and
southern Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced
risk (driven by CIG1 wind) across parts of western OK, the eastern
TX Panhandle, and far south-central KS. Thunderstorms are evolving
across the OK Panhandle and vicinity, ahead of a surface low/triple
point. Current expectation is for this activity and additional
storms to track east-southeastward through a hot/well-mixed air mass
-- favorable for strengthening/expanding cold pools with time.
Around 40 kt of effective shear should promote a mix of organized
clusters and supercells tracking east-southeastward into
increasingly rich boundary-layer moisture and a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet. This evolution should favor a swath of
severe/damaging wind gusts (some upwards of 75 mph or greater).
A focused corridor of relatively greater tornado potential is
possible across parts of southwest KS into northwest OK -- along a
recovering outflow boundary. There was some consideration for higher
tornado probabilities here, though confidence in the exact corridor
was too low for the upgrade at this time.
Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made to the severe
probabilities based on the latest convective and environmental
trends.
..Weinman.. 06/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026/
...Southern/Central Plains and Ozarks...
Strong convection continues at midday across south-central Kansas
into northern Oklahoma, augmenting a front that will continue to
settle south-southeastward toward the Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma by this evening. Some of this convection has been
organized/bowing on a small scale this morning and some diurnal
intensification could occur through peak heating as it progresses
southeastward, but the continued influence of proximal rain-cooled
air casts some uncertainty regarding intensity/peak risk timing.
The most likely scenario will be for the possibility of deeper
convective development later this afternoon on the west-southwest
flank of these lingering early day storms, where outflow
modifies/intercepts the surface front, and in north and east
proximity to a Panhandles surface low. Additional post-frontal
low-level upslope flow-related potentially severe storms are also
expected across southeast Colorado near the Front Range
southeastward into the Panhandle beginning mid/late afternoon.
This anticipated development later today is expected to be focused
in a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability from
southeast Colorado east-southeastward into far southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma. With strong deep-layer shear expected, initial
supercells should pose a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts
and potentially a tornado risk. But, convective mode will probably
tend to become mixed/messy quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge
with each other. Low-level shear is forecast to markedly increase
near the surface boundary later today as a southerly low-level jet
strengthens. Resultant elongated/curved hodographs support the
potential for tornadoes, especially with any thunderstorms that can
remain at least semi-discrete. And given the enhanced effective SRH
near the boundary, a strong tornado appears possible if a supercell
mode can be maintained.
Higher-based convection will develop farther south into the
southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed
airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This
activity should tend to cluster and spread east-southeastward across
northwest Texas, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and eventually into
western Oklahoma this evening, while continuing to pose mainly a
severe wind threat before eventually weakening.
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York...
50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the
Midwest/Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians through this
evening as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great
Lakes. A weak surface low should also develop eastward over the
lower Great Lakes, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in
the 50s to low 60s F ahead of the front. Coupled with poor mid lapse
rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by
this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in
updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly
some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon
along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds
both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across
parts of Ohio into western/central Pennsylvania and western New York
where slightly stronger low-level flow and related shear should
exist. A somewhat higher/more focused severe potential appears to
exist across central/eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania from
mid-afternoon through early evening.
...Utah/Wyoming/Montana and far eastern Idaho...
Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a
well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main
threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds
with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from Utah into
Wyoming this afternoon and evening. Have introduced a wind-related
categorical Slight risk for the potential of semi-organized storms
as a mid-level speed max interfaces with an unstable/well-mixed
boundary layer across Wyoming. Otherwise, occasional hail may also
exist farther north in southeast Idaho, Wyoming, and parts of
Montana, where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level
flow/deep-layer shear, and pockets of greater instability should
support more robust convection.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and
western North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be
possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the
Carolinas.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough across the western US will ejected across the
northern Rockies, with strong mid-level flow overspreading the High
Plains on D3/Saturday. In response, a surface low across eastern
Montana will deepen with strengthening southerly flow into the High
Plains. A secondary surface low will move eastward across the Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through the period.
...Northern Plains...
As southerly flow increases with the deepening surface cyclone
across eastern Montana, mid 60s dew points will surge northward into
portions of the northern High Plains. Guidance suggests that a
narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place
ahead of the surface low across portions of eastern Montana into the
western/central Dakotas. Additionally, a plume of steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will push northward through morning/afternoon.
Thunderstorm activity is expected first across the high terrain in
eastern Montana/northern Wyoming. It is likely that as this moves
into the lower elevations, it will cluster and grow upscale into one
or more clusters/MCS moving north and east into the Dakotas through
the afternoon/evening. These may be further supported by the
increasing low-level jet into the evening, with potential to
produce damaging wind (perhaps some significant 70+ mph). Higher
probabilities may be warranted with additional information/higher
confidence in corridors of damaging wind potential.
...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along
a front extending from the Mid-Atlantic back into the southern Ohio
Valley. Flow is expected to be generally weak with modest shear.
Guidance suggests that moderate to strong buoyancy will develop
across the region amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Despite
weaker shear profiles, this may support a few organized clusters
capable of damaging winds/wet downbursts.
A more favorable corridor for wind will exist from North Carolina
into Virginia. Here a shortwave trough will move eastward with a
modest increase in mid-level flow and deep layer shear. This may
support potential for a more organized line of thunderstorms to
shift eastward to the coastline. Forecast soundings indicate steep
low-level lapse rates will be in place across this region, further
supporting potential for downward momentum transport. A Slight Risk
was added across this area to cover this potential.
..Thornton.. 06/25/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UTAH INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UTAH...EASTERN
NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest on Day 2/Friday***
...Northwest Arizona and far eastern Nevada into central Utah ...
A slight westward expansion was made to the Extremely Critical fire
weather risk area as high resolution guidance depicts an extensive
region of sustained southwest winds of 25-35 mph (gusts over 45 mph)
amid 5-15% RH. 10+ hours of widespread critical conditions alongside
poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds will
result in an extended burning period, further exacerbating the fire
environment and impacting control efforts.
...Colorado Plateau...
Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced across the CO
West Slope, northwestern NM, and extreme southeastern UT as strong
mid-level flow and sufficient lift overspread the region. Despite
preceding days of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, pockets of fuels will
remain receptive (80-90th percentile) to lightning ignitions.
Concerns increase significantly as multiple days of critical fire
weather conditions (above normal temperatures, strong winds and
critically low RH) are expected this weekend, potentially impacting
nascent wildfires born from thunderstorm activity mid-week.
A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Pacific Northwest on Day 2/Friday evening into the overnight hours.
While fuels could initially be receptive to lightning ignitions,
cooler temperatures, 0.5-1.0" of widespread rainfall, and increasing
RH will encourage less favorable fuel conditions. Thus, Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm highlights have been withheld.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
A robust fire weather pattern is expected across an expansive
portion of the Intermountain West starting on Day 2/Friday and
continuing through the weekend. Preceding dry thunderstorms on
Wednesday and Thursday will be followed by exceptionally dry and
windy conditions to promote significant fire weather concerns for
any new ignitions, lightning holdovers, and ongoing large fires
across the western CONUS.
A seasonally abnormal trough and associated mid-level jet will move
over the Pacific Northwest on Day 2/Friday, causing significant fire
weather concerns for the Great Basin and much of the Southwest. The
latest forecast guidance suggests a corridor of strong southwest
winds beginning Day 2/Friday afternoon across northern AZ through
southwest WY. At the surface, southwest winds of 25-35 mph are
likely to develop amid very dry RHs of 5-15% over the corridor of
highest concern. Accordingly, an area of Extremely Critical fire
weather risk was introduced over portions of central and southwest
UT, northwest AZ, and far southeast Nevada. Over the surrounding
areas of those states as well as far western CO, southwestern WY,
far western NM, and southeast CA, where winds are slightly less
intense, a Critical to Elevated wind/RH risk area will also exist.
Several days of poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual
gusty winds will further intensify the fire environment.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust fire weather pattern is expected to persist across an
expansive portion of the Intermountain West through the middle of
next week. Dry thunderstorms early in the forecast period followed
by consecutive days of exceptionally dry and breezy conditions will
promote significant fire weather concerns for any new ignitions,
lightning holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the western
CONUS.
Forecast guidance continues to show a major, seasonally abnormal
trough traversing the western CONUS through Day 4/Sunday, posing
considerable fire weather concerns for the Great Basin and much of
the Southwest. A strong cold front and accompanying wind shift (from
broadly southwesterly to northerly) will push through the region
sometime on Sunday. This wind shift and associated wind gusts may
further exacerbate ongoing wildfires and impact control efforts.
...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday...
A strong mid-level jet overspreads much of the Interior West as an
upper trough amplifies across the Northwestern U.S., scouring out
remaining meaningful atmospheric moisture in the Great Basin and
Southwest. Forecast guidance suggests a corridor of stronger
southwesterly winds of 25-35 mph developing under the stronger jet,
expanding from southeastern NV into the CO Plateau on Day
3/Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions will continue on Day
4/Sunday as the mid-level jet translates slightly eastward,
expanding from the Four Corners into the northern Plains. Of note,
Day 4/Sunday may be a third consecutive day of amplified sustained
winds of 25-35 mph across portions of the Great Basin. An extended
burning period is expected, with consecutive days of poor overnight
humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds further exacerbating
the fire environment. The potential for localized extremely critical
fire weather conditions may exist where single-digit RH and very
strong sustained winds overlap receptive fuels.
...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday...
Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing across the West should support a prolonged fire weather
threat across the central Rockies, Great Basin and parts of the
Southwest. As such, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained.
Fuels are expected to remain quite receptive through the extended
forecast period with minimal-to-no chances of precipitation this
weekend into early next week.
A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the central and
eastern CONUS next week, maintaining a troughing pattern across the
West. Above normal temperatures and overall drier conditions may
encourage fire weather concerns to emerge in the Southeast. As dry
southwesterly flow persists across the Southwest and Great Basin
through the forecast period, Critical fire weather probabilities may
be needed in future outlooks as guidance becomes better resolved.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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