Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but
slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across
south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may
occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads
southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The
potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional
robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon
remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should
gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and
hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow.
Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the
ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe
probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the
MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today.

Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe
thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A
broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will
persist across these regions though the period, with multiple
convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending
northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along
with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern
High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation
later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring,
the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will
provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector.
Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the
steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability
along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the
dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain
fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts.

Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level
upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX
along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of
supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large
hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds
may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening,
although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado
or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained
supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across
southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on
extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the
northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the
central Plains.

...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa...
A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move
northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today.
Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is
forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this
afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread
northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025