Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

...Discussion...
A longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies eastward,
with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the Upper Midwest and
Rockies. Surface high pressure across the Plains and prevalent cold
and/or stable conditions will considerably limit thunderstorm
potential, even near/ahead of a southeastward-moving front
approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast.

..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/16/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more info.

..Thornton.. 01/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/

...Discussion...
A longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies eastward,
with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the Upper Midwest and
Rockies. Surface high pressure across the Plains and prevalent cold
and/or stable conditions will considerably limit thunderstorm
potential, even near/ahead of a southeastward-moving front
approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.

...Discussion...
A midlevel shortwave trough initially over the central High Plains
will move into the base of a larger-scale trough encompassing the
eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. In response, a weak surface front
and related moisture will move northward into southeastern FL during
the overnight and early morning hours. While buoyancy will be
limited (especially over land areas), isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across the Upper Keys and far southeastern FL. Most
guidance depicts the bulk of this activity remaining offshore, and
eventual removal of the TSTM area may be warranted if this trend
continues.

..Weinman.. 01/16/2026