Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Plains states and
the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist over the Plains as a 500 mb cut-off low
meanders over the central Appalachians and broad upper troughing
continues along the West Coast on Wednesday. Surface high pressure
will become established over portions of the central Rockies and
across most of the CONUS east of the MS River. The best chance for
thunderstorms will be across portions of the Plains states, where
weak surface lee troughing will encourage modest low-level moisture
return. A few thunderstorms are also possible closer to the
Southeast in advance of an inverted surface trough over the TN
Valley. However, given the lack of a clear source of deep-layer
ascent, as well as overlapping favorable vertical wind shear or
instability anywhere over the CONUS, no severe probabilities have
been introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. while a mid-level
cut-off low continues to meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic
coastline and multiple mid-level troughs traverse the Pacific
Northwest later this week into early next week. Through the Days 4-8
period, moisture return will be most prevalent over the Plains
states given surface lee troughing, and it is here where
thunderstorms will be most likely. However, the overall lack of
overlapping shear, buoyancy, and large-scale lift suggest that
organized severe potential is too low for the introduction of
probabilities this outlook.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. A cold
front will shift southward into the southern Plains, with cooler
temperatures and higher humidity. Chances for wetting rainfall will
spread into portions of central and far western Texas. Though
critically dry fuels across much western/central Oklahoma and
north-western Texas saw little in way of wetting rainfall, the
cooler temperatures, generally light winds, and higher humidity will
aid in limiting fire weather concerns.

..Thornton.. 09/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...