Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Rather strong west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow will overspread
the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic today as an upper trough/low
over Quebec moves eastward through the period. While locally gusty
winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts of New
England, limited low-level moisture and related meager instability
will likely hinder an organized severe wind threat.

Showers and occasional thunderstorms will persist today over
portions of the Southeast as a slow-moving front remains draped from
the northern Gulf into southern GA/northern FL. A moist airmass is
in place south of this boundary, but weak low/mid-level winds, poor
lapse rates aloft, and effective bulk shear less than 30 kt will
hamper updraft organization and severe potential.

Elsewhere, isolated convection may continue today across parts of
the Sierra into Great Basin, and over parts of the southern/central
Rockies, as a weak upper trough develops eastward. Elevated
thunderstorms may also occur late this afternoon through tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest. For all these regions, weak
instability will greatly limit the risk for severe thunderstorms.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Strong northwest flow will intensify over the northern third of the
US behind a departing upper trough over the western Atlantic.  A
secondary low-amplitude trough over southern Canada is forecast to
move across the Upper Great Lakes and intensify as is moves into the
northern US. Cool mid-level temperatures beneath the deepening
trough could support isolated thunderstorms across the northern
Great Lakes late Tuesday. Otherwise, the cool northerly flow and
high pressure over the eastern states will favor drier and more
stable conditions for much of the region.

To the south of the surface high pressure, scattered thunderstorms
will again be likely over the Gulf Coast and into central and
southern Florida as northeast surface winds push a cold front
farther south. Severe storms are not expected as lapse rates and
vertical shear are forecast to remain weak.

A weak upper trough and a pocket of cooler mid-level temperatures
moving over the Rockies is forecast to steepen low/mid-level lapse
rates through the day. While ascent and overall moisture will be
modest, sufficient buoyancy could support isolated thunderstorms
over the higher terrain.

..Lyons.. 10/05/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An initially low-amplitude upper trough over southern Canada and the
northern US will deepen into an upper low as it and an associated
strong mid-level jet move over the Great Lakes and Northeast. A cold
front and cooling mid-level temperatures will support weak buoyancy
beneath the upper low, with isolated thunderstorms likely to be
ongoing early Wednesday. This may continue through the day with
strong height falls overspreading the Lakes and Northeast. A few
low-topped showers/storms with sporadic lightning may continue into
early Thursday. Otherwise, drier and cooler conditions associated
with the advancing cold front will limit thunderstorm potential over
much of the central and eastern US.

Meanwhile, a modest southern-stream upper jet will extend from the
Desert Southwest into TX, and across the Gulf Coast states where a
remnant front will be stalled along the coast. Isolated
thunderstorms will again be possible over the FL Peninsula, and
southern LA/TX near the more robust surface moisture. However,
instability and shear will be weak enough to preclude any severe
weather chances.

Across the West, daytime heating, residual monsoon moisture and the
presence of cool temperatures aloft with a weak upper trough over
the Rockies will support scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over parts of UT, CO, AZ and NM. Easterly upslope flow
associated with the cold front moving down the Plains may also
support an isolated storm or two across western/central NE overnight
into early Thursday. Meager instability and ascent will preclude
severe weather potential.

..Lyons.. 10/05/2026