Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Discussion...
Highlighted by an amplifying longwave trough east of the Rockies and
the prevalence of continental trajectories, the large-scale pattern
will generally not be conducive for convection capable of generating
lightning today. A couple of lightning flashes could occur early
today across northern New England with focused ascent near the
surface low/northward-shifting front, but this potential will remain
limited and diminish over time. Weak elevated convection may develop
late tonight across west-central Texas in vicinity of the Low
Rolling Plains as warm advection increases, but forecast
thermodynamic profiles suggest that charge separation is unlikely
prior to 12z Saturday.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 10/31/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the eastern
two-thirds of the nation during the early to mid-week. Through this
time, surface high pressure will remain dominant from the Great
Plains eastward into the eastern U.S. Further west, a mid-level
trough is forecast to move into California on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of California as the
system moves inland.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
The West Coast mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward
across the Rockies on Thursday. Ahead of the system, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms appear most likely Thursday afternoon and
evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A severe
threat will be possible with this activity. Ahead of the mid-level
trough, a severe threat may again develop over the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley on Friday. The severe threat on Thursday and
Friday is expected to remain isolated, mainly due to relatively weak
instability.