Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible in parts of Arizona today.

...Arizona...
An upper-level trough will move northeastward today from the eastern
Pacific into California and Arizona. Ahead of the trough, a
north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture and instability will
be in place over parts of southern and western Arizona. Along the
moist axis, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak
destabilization by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the moisture and
instability axis. RAP forecast soundings from 22Z to 00Z near this
axis have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough for a marginal hail
threat with rotating cells. Low-level lapse rates will also become
steep from the surface to near 850 mb suggesting isolated severe
wind gusts will also be possible. The storms associated with any
severe threat are expected to remain unorganized.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 10/30/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Discussion...
Shortwave ridging will occur from the Northern Plains to the Upper
Great Lakes on Saturday as a shortwave trough exits the Maritimes
and multiple waves converge across the West. In the wake of the
northeastern trough, high pressure will become centered over the Mid
Atlantic, with dry low-level trajectories over much of the eastern
CONUS. 

Easterly surface winds will maintain a boundary near the Gulf Coast,
though southerly winds may bring upper 60s well inland across
eastern TX into LA. Here, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be likely within a weak low-level warm advection regime. Lapse rates
will be poor with little if any severe potential.

Elsewhere, cool temperatures aloft will exist along the West Coast
and into much of the Intermountain West as an amplified upper trough
moves ashore late in the day over WA/OR/CA, and another
southern-stream wave approaches southern CA and northern Baja
overnight. While shear will increase across most of the region,
instability will be quite weak, with isolated lightning possible
from eastern ID southward across the Great Basin late in the day and
overnight.

..Jewell.. 10/30/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND SMALL PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are anticipated from central New Mexico into
parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night.

...Discussion...
An amplified upper trough will move across the Great Basin on
Sunday, while another wave to the south moves across northern Baja
CA and into AZ. By late in the day, gusty south winds will increase
across the Rockies and into the southern High Plains, as low
pressure develops over WY through 00Z.

During the late evening and overnight, a prominent cold front will
move out of AZ and into NM as the parent wave aloft continues
northeastward across NM and into the central to southern High
Plains. The surface low is forecast to deepen overnight into CO,
with a surface trough into eastern NM and western TX through 12Z
Monday.

After a full day of heating, low-level lapse rates will be steep,
and gusty winds overnight should maintain relatively warm
temperatures ahead of the cold front. Dewpoints from the upper 40s
to mid 50s F should also be maintained ahead of the front, with
thunderstorms developing near the cold front after about 03-06Z.
Deep-layer shear will be strong, with supercell wind profiles.
Instability will be marginal over central NM, perhaps supporting
locally severe gusts or marginal hail, with a potentially greater
concentration of severe storms into eastern NM where low-level
moisture will be more abundant with MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. The
strongest cooling aloft will spread over northern NM and into the TX
Panhandle, and this is where a potentially greater hail and wind
threat could develop. Both cellular and possibly QLCS storm mode
will be possible, with storms tied to the cold front. A small
corridor of higher severe probabilities could be added in later
outlooks as trends warrant.

..Jewell.. 10/30/2026