WW 700 TORNADO NM OK TX 020215Z - 020800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 700
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
815 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern New Mexico
Oklahoma Panhandle
Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 815 PM
until 200 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A line of low-topped storms, potentially with lightning
remaining sparse, should intensify across eastern New Mexico into
west/northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle tonight. Damaging
winds, at least on an isolated basis, are expected, while there is
potential that the tornado risk may increase given the magnitude of
the deep-layer/low-level winds and a moist early November air mass.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Guymon OK to 5
miles east southeast of Roswell NM. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 699...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23030.
...Guyer
WW 0700 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 700
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SRR TO
15 WNW GUY TO 20 NE EHA.
..MOORE..11/02/26
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 700
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-009-041-020740-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES CURRY ROOSEVELT
OKC139-020740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
TXC017-065-069-117-195-205-233-341-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-
020740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAILEY CARSON CASTRO
DEAF SMITH HANSFORD HARTLEY
HUTCHINSON MOORE OCHILTREE
MD 2427 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 700... FOR FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Areas affected...Far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 700...
Valid 020652Z - 020845Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 700 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and brief tornadoes continues
across portions of far eastern New Mexico, and will become focused
across the Texas Panhandle through the early morning hours.
Localized expansions/extensions of WW 700 may be needed.
DISCUSSION...MRMS and GOES IR trends over the past hour have
exhibited transient intensification of convective elements within a
broken line of convection from far southwest KS into the TX
Panhandle and far eastern NM. The limited durability of the stronger
cells/line segments is most likely attributable to the residual warm
layer noted on the 04 UTC AMA sounding, which is likely more
prominent than depicted by recent mesoanalysis and model guidance.
However, large-scale ascent continues to spread east over the warm
sector, which will promote additional thunderstorm development over
the next few hours. Given these considerations, periodic
intensification of embedded cells and segments within the convective
band will likely continue across the TX Panhandle through the early
morning hours.
Regional VWPs continue to sample strong (45-50 knot) wind shear
within the warm sector, though low-level curvature appears to be
weakening across the central TX Panhandle ahead of the line per the
AMA VWP. This kinematic environment will continue to support
organized convection, but the tornado risk may become dependent on
achieving, and sustaining, meridionally-oriented line segments. This
potential appears greatest along and south of the I-40 corridor over
the next couple of hours as convection developing east of Clovis, NM
spreads east/northeast into a somewhat wider and more buoyant warm
sector (compared to locations further north).
..Moore.. 11/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34070335 35100257 36060179 36250157 36390114 36300079
35990066 35560075 34930112 34210178 33940227 33840260
33820295 33840319 33880329 34070335
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from
this afternoon into tonight.
...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will move across the southern Rockies today
and into the southern High Plains. Ahead of the system, the exit
region of a mid-level jet will overspread the southern and central
Plains this afternoon and evening. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across the central High Plains as a
pre-frontal trough moves into the southern and central Plains. Ahead
of this feature, moisture advection will take place with surface
dewpoints gradually increasing into the mid to upper 60s F over much
of Texas, Oklahoma and the eastern half of Kansas. Across the moist
sector, RAP forecast soundings suggest that MLCAPE will only peak in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm and
low-level convergence becomes maximized near the pre-frontal trough
in the afternoon, convective development will take place.
Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage from
the afternoon into the early evening, as several line segments
organize and move east-northeastward across the moist sector.
The convective mode is the main question for this event. It seems
possible that the convection will line out quickly during the
afternoon, and that discrete cell formation will be minimized. Even
so, widespread large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will
likely support severe thunderstorm development with vigorous
updrafts associated with organized lines and potentially
semi-discrete supercells. The latest RAP forecast soundings from
central Oklahoma north-northeastward into eastern Kansas suggest
that 0-6 km shear will be around 50 knots. Although some directional
shear is present, the stronger component will be speed increases
with height in the low-levels. Near the axis of the low-level jet,
0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak in the 250 to 300
m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells and
with rotating elements embedded in organized line segments. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with the more intense line
segments, especially with bowing structures. A greater tornado
threat could materialize across Oklahoma or southeast Kansas, if a
cluster of discrete cells can persist into the late afternoon or
early evening. A severe threat will continue throughout the evening
as a larger-scale line segment moves eastward across the moist
sector, reaching western Missouri and far eastern Oklahoma around
midnight. Severe wind gusts and perhaps a QLCS tornado threat will
be possible with this line.
...Texas...
Southwesterly cyclonic mid-level flow will be in place today across
much of Texas, as an upper-level trough approaches. Ahead of the
system, an axis of moderate instability will develop as surface
temperatures warm. A capping inversion will be in place over much of
Texas into afternoon. This cap will likely weaken during the mid
afternoon, allowing for convective initiation over parts of
west-central and northwest Texas. A convective band, with a mixed
mode, is expected to form and move eastward into north-central Texas
by early evening. Ahead of this forecast band by 00Z, surface
dewpoints are expected to peak in the upper 60s F, with MLCAPE
reaching the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. This will be favorable for
strong updrafts and scattered severe storms. The southeastern edge
of the mid-level jet will create moderate deep-layer shear along the
axis of instability. This will support supercell development with
cells that can remain discrete. Intense line segments are also
expected with cells that congeal. Severe wind gusts and a couple
tornadoes will be possible during the late afternoon and early to
mid evening. The greatest tornado threat should be concentrated in
north-central Texas where low-level shear is maximized on the
southern edge of the low-level jet.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/02/2026
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi
Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few
thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts, and a brief tornado cannot
be ruled out.
...Discussion...
A highly amplified upper trough will move out of the Plains and
toward the MS Valley on Tuesday, with moderate southerly winds
aloft. Height falls will occur over MO and AR during the day, and
into IL and western KY and TN overnight.
At the surface, low pressure will be located over southern MN,
nearly stationary, with a front extending south across IA, MO, and
into the Sabine Valley during the afternoon.
Southerly low-level winds with 30-40 kt at 850 mb will aid moisture
transport, with mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as the Missouri
Bootheel. Rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the front
early, though a diurnal uptick in intensity is expected from the
Sabine River into southern MO.
The primary mitigating factor on Tuesday will be widespread clouds,
rain, and weak lapse rates ahead of the front. Still, at least
isolated severe gusts, or a brief tornado or two may occur as shear
profiles overall will favor rotation with storms along the front, or
possible cells ahead of the front from LA into AR.
..Jewell.. 11/02/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns will remain low today.
..Weinman.. 11/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday.
..Weinman.. 11/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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