WW 465 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 052245Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
645 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Delaware
Maryland
Southern New Jersey
South-Central and Southeast Pennsylvania
Northern Virginia
The Far Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 645 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...Loosely organized clusters and cells should pose some
threat for scattered damaging winds this evening as they spread
generally eastward. Occasional strong to severe gusts may reach up
to 55-65 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of
Harrisburg PA to 30 miles south of Washington DC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 463...WW 464...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27020.
...Gleason
WW 464 SEVERE TSTM ND 052030Z - 060400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western North Dakota
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify across western
North Dakota this afternoon, with a few severe storms possible.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main concerns, although an
isolated tornado is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles southwest of
Garrison ND to 55 miles north northwest of Minot ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 463...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
WW 463 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 051940Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Oklahoma
North Central into West Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify and build southeastward
across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. A
few severe storms are expected, with damaging winds and large hail
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of
Plainview TX to 40 miles east southeast of Tyler TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Hart
WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE SHD TO
20 NW HGR TO 30 S IPT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518
..MOORE..07/06/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-005-060240-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
DCC001-060240-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-
043-510-060240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SDY TO
30 ESE ISN TO 90 NW MOT.
..MOORE..07/06/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-009-011-013-025-033-041-049-053-055-057-061-065-075-
087-089-101-060240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOTTINEAU
BOWMAN BURKE DUNN
GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCHENRY
MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER
MOUNTRAIL OLIVER RENVILLE
SLOPE STARK WARD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 463
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ABI
TO 35 WNW SEP TO 45 S SEP.
WW 463 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 060300Z.
..THOMPSON..07/06/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 463
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-081-083-093-095-193-235-399-431-451-060300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN COKE COLEMAN
COMANCHE CONCHO HAMILTON
IRION RUNNELS STERLING
TOM GREEN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1519 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1519
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...Central to northeast Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 060110Z - 060315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...High-based storms ongoing across central Montana may see
some uptick in intensity over the next few hours as they approach a
regional buoyancy maximum. However, the onset of nocturnal cooling
and antecedent inhibition downstream cast uncertainty on this
scenario.
DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, high-based convection across
central/south-central MT has experienced an uptick in lightning
counts indicative of a slight strengthening trend. This may be
attributable to storms moving into the western periphery of a more
buoyant air mass where dewpoints are in the low 50s, increasing into
the low 60s into northeast MT on the western side of a weak cold
front. Based on mesoanalysis estimates and 00 UTC GGW and BIS RAOBs,
this moisture is supporting MLCAPE values on the order of 1000-2000
J/kg within a relatively narrow corridor. It appears possible that
further intensification could occur as convection migrates further
into this air mass. Effective bulk shear values should increase to
around 40-45 knots as buoyancy profiles and convection deepen,
resulting in increased organization and an uptick in severe wind
potential.
However, analyses also depict increasing MLCIN immediately
downstream of the ongoing convection, which should increase further
with the coming onset of nocturnal cooling. Recent HRRR/RRFS
time-lagged ensemble guidance hints at this potential, but has been
too aggressive with wind forecasts so far across this region and
only gives a 30-50% chance for severe gusts through early morning.
This limits confidence in this scenario; watch issuance seems
improbable at this time.
..Moore/Gleason.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 45840729 45720762 45750777 46000792 46530814 46720837
46830880 46910918 47090961 47340992 47620974 47820922
47900815 48160667 48740516 48710475 48550441 48250412
47900409 47450407 46670411 46160442 45840729
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic and west-central Texas through the remainder of the
evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with
thunderstorms in North Dakota and Montana.
...West-Central Texas...
A forward-propagating MCS has evolved this evening across the TX Big
Country into the Low Rolling Plains with gusts of 62 and 75 mph
reported with the system over the past hour. The inflow air mass
remains hot and relatively moist with latest objective analysis
indicating MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. The KFDR VWP indicates a belt
of 30-40 kt northerly winds in the 4-6 km AGL layer, which is likely
enhancing vertical shear. This, when coupled with the presence of a
relatively deep and well-mixed PBL, will continue to support severe
wind gusts and sporadic hail occurrences for the next few hours as
the MCS continues south into the Concho Valley.
For additional near-term details, see MCD 1517.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Earlier, more discrete storms have gradually evolved into a
larger-scale complex over southeast PA with that system tracking
east along a subtle boundary that extends into central NJ.
Additional storm clustering is noted farther south, near Baltimore,
with latest model guidance suggesting additional consolidation of
storms over the next hour or two across the Delmarva into the DE
River Valley. The 00Z IAD sampled a moist and moderately unstable
air mass, which featured steep lapse rates in the lowest 1-1.5 km
AGL. While vertical shear is relatively weak, the steep lapse rates
will support episodic cold-pool organization with an attendant risk
for damaging winds for the next 1-3 hours.
For additional near-term information, see MCD 1518.
...Montana and North Dakota...
Mesoanalysis places a surface front from western ND into
south-central MT, with steep lapse rates and locally higher
boundary-layer moisture contributing to a corridor of moderate to
strong instability in the vicinity of the boundary over northwest ND
into northeast MT. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this
evening to the east of the boundary in western ND amidst a warmer
and slightly drier boundary layer as sampled by the 00Z BIS
sounding. The development of a nocturnal low-level jet may support
some moistening late this evening into tonight; however, increasing
convective inhibition may become more prohibitive to surface-based
storm sustenance upon nightfall. Nonetheless, isolated occurrences
of large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible with the ongoing
storms for the next 1-3 hours.
Farther west, a separate thunderstorm regime is ongoing to the north
of the surface front in central MT. The short-term models suggest a
few of those storms could persist through the remainder of the
evening with isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind
gusts possible.
..Mead.. 07/06/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Overall, this upcoming week represents a critical fire weather
pattern for portions of the Intermountain West with hotter and drier
conditions followed by lightning then dry and breezy conditions. An
upper-level trough will move into southwest Canada mid-week, with
zonal westerly flow and a flattened ridge over the northern half to
two-thirds of the West. As the upper-level ridge flattens, the upper
high retrogrades off the southern California coast. A weak dry cold
front will push through the Northwest and into the Great Basin
mid-week, with moisture and above normal temperatures ahead of it.
Moisture will likely eventually push east of the Colorado Rockies
and be suppressed southward to southern Arizona and New Mexico mid
to late week. Forecast uncertainty exists late in the period
regarding how an upper-level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast
will interact with the likely building upper-level ridge over most
of the West, especially the Intermountain West Day 6/Friday - Day
8/Sunday.
Southwest flow aloft with a ribbon of higher PWAT values (0.5-0.9")
will exist from central Oregon into the Four Corners. Isolated to
scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely to develop around
the Greater Four Corners over the higher terrain, with further
development likely extending northwest into central Oregon on Day
3/Tuesday. Wetter thunderstorms are possible in portions of
northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. Additionally, there is
some concern with slight height rises, but sufficient moisture,
terrain aided updrafts, and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates
should compensate.
Dry and breezy conditions are likely through the Cascade Gaps and
onto the Columbia Basin on Day 3/Tuesday as the onshore pressure
gradient strengthens. The dry and breezy conditions will likely
extend into northeast California and northwest Nevada, but portions
of central/southern Oregon may not hit elevated criteria.
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely
across portions of the northern/eastern Great Basin into the Four
Corners on Day 4/Wednesday. The 10% area was drawn on the
southern/western edge of expected wetter thunderstorms and over more
receptive fuels. Dry and breezy conditions will be likely in the
Washington Cascade Gaps onto the Columbia Basin and in portions of
the central/southern Great Basin ahead of and perhaps behind the dry
cold front and along thermal trough axes where two 40% areas were
introduced. The front and trough axes may also help focus
thunderstorm development.
Dry and breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Thursday across the
southern Great Basin into the Four Corners. Dry and breezy
conditions may be more expansive than currently identified with the
40% area. Some forecast uncertainty exists regarding the upper-level
trough moving into southwest Canada and its interaction with the
upper-level ridge over the Southwest on Day 4/Wednesday - Day
5/Thursday. Moisture is likely to push east and south, with
thunderstorms unlikely west of the Divide on Day 5/Thursday - Day
6/Friday.
..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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