WW 448 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ NY PA CW 031925Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Delaware
Northeast Maryland
New Jersey
Southern New York
Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over southern New York and
northern Pennsylvania in a hot/humid air mass. These storms will
track southeastward through the afternoon and early evening, posing
a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of
Binghamton NY to 40 miles west southwest of Wilmington DE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...WW 446...WW 447...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Hart
WW 447 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LE LM 031835Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Indiana
Southern Lower Michigan
Northwest Ohio
Lake Erie
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms crossing southern Lake Michigan
will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon. Damaging
winds gusts may accompany the stronger cells.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest
of Benton Harbor MI to 15 miles southeast of Mount Clemens MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...WW 446...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Hart
WW 446 SEVERE TSTM SD 031815Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest South Dakota
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until
800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify over the Black
Hills and track southeastward through the afternoon. Very large
hail and damaging winds are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest
of Rapid City SD to 75 miles east southeast of Philip SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Hart
WW 445 SEVERE TSTM IL IN WI LM 031655Z - 040000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Southeast Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1155 AM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over northern Illinois will track
eastward toward the Lake shore this afternoon, while other storms
form farther south. Damaging wind gusts may occur with the stronger
storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south southeast
of Marseilles IL to 10 miles north of Racine WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Hart
WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0448 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0447 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..07/03/26
ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC007-033-047-055-071-075-081-093-095-102-103-121-123-032040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
HAAKON JACKSON JONES
LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE
OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD
TRIPP
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MMO TO
45 NE MMO TO 40 ENE MKE.
..LEITMAN..07/03/26
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC031-053-063-075-091-093-099-105-197-032040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOK FORD GRUNDY
IROQUOIS KANKAKEE KENDALL
LA SALLE LIVINGSTON WILL
INC007-073-089-111-127-032040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON JASPER LAKE
NEWTON PORTER
WIC079-032040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MILWAUKEE
MD 1471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Areas affected...portions of southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa
and far northeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 031952Z - 032145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is increasing across the
mid-MO Valley vicinity. Storm development is possible by 22-23z.
Large hail to 2.5 inches and damaging gusts to 80 mph will be the
main hazards with storms late this afternoon and evening. A severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next couple hours.
DISCUSSION...Strong destabilization is occurring across southeast NE
and vicinity near modifying outflow from prior convection. A swath
of midlevel cumulus has developed over the past 1-2 hours. This
indicates steep lapse rates and ample instability amid increasing
ascent atop weakening MLCIN. An 18z RAOB from OAX showed nearly 4000
J/kg MUCAPE with supercell wind profiles already present. Once
capping erodes, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will
likely quickly occur. Initial supercells will pose a risk of very
large hail to near baseball size. Given large instability, damaging
gusts are also possible. The risk for severe gusts may increase
during the evening if upscale development occurs via sufficient
storm clustering and outflow consolidation. While convective
initiation timing remains a bit uncertain, it appears a severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.
..Leitman/Hart.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 39989894 40689911 41779855 42199744 42329619 42249578
41839545 41069508 40199544 39809603 39639722 39569808
39649851 39989894
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 1470 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447... FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Areas affected...southwest Lower MI
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447...
Valid 031913Z - 032045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe band of storms over Lake Michigan will move
eastward into southwest Lower Michigan over the next hour. The
strongest wind gusts may approach 70-80 mph, and a swath of damaging
gusts is possible.
DISCUSSION...A small but strong bowing cluster of storms over Lake
MI will continue to track east around 40 kt into southwest Lower MI
over next hour or so. This activity produced several measured gusts
in the 65-73 mph range near Chicago before moving over southern Lake
MI. Since then, this area of convection has some some signs of
increasing organization. The MKX VWP shows a band of 45-60 kt 3-6 km
westerly flow in the wake of this convection, indicating some degree
of organized rear-inflow. This should aid in continued organization
and severe wind potential across southwest Lower MI in the short
term.
..Leitman.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42848691 42868599 42708540 42308522 41728540 41748709
41878754 42238752 42598737 42848691
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
...SD/NE...
Water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over central WY
approaching the Black Hills region. This, along with remnant
outflow boundaries from recent convection, will aid in the
development of scattered thunderstorms over western SD/NE by
mid/late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell
structures will promote the risk of very large hail in the initial
storms over the Black Hills. Activity is expected to organized into
a bowing MCS during the evening and track roughly along the NE/SD
border with a risk of severe wind and hail.
...NE/IA/Northwest MO...
Moderately strong southerly low-level winds over KS will maintain a
hot/humid air mass across southeast NE today. Thunderstorms are
expected to intensify along pre-existing outflow boundaries by late
afternoon and develop/move into IA. Large CAPE in this region
(MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a
risk of supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through
the evening hours.
...IA/IL/IN/MI/OH...
A remnant outflow boundary is also tracking eastward across the MS
river into northern IL. The air mass ahead of this boundary is very
moist and unstable with dewpoints in the mid 70s and peak diurnal
CAPE values expected to exceed 3500 J/kg. Models differ on
convective evolution of storms that form in this regime, but there
is potential for an upscale-growing MCS producing a swath of wind
damage from northern IL into parts of IN/MI and northwest OH this
evening.
...NY/PA/NJ...
Hot and humid conditions are present across much of the northeast
states today, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level lapse
rates and moderate CAPE. It is unclear how many thunderstorms will
form in this region today given weak forcing. However, the
environment is conditionally favorable for damaging winds in any
convective clusters that can persist.
...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread moist and unstable air mass will aid in the development
of disorganized and slow-moving thunderstorms again this afternoon
and early evening. Weak winds aloft suggest chaotic storm
evolutions, but the strongest cells will pose a risk of locally
damaging winds gusts and small hail throughout the area.
..Hart/Halbert.. 07/03/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
A swath of damaging to severe gusts is expected across southern
Lower Michigan over the next few hours. Scattered damaging gusts are
also likely over portions of the Mid Atlantic. Otherwise, scattered
wind damage and large hail are still expected from parts of Nebraska
into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms remain possible
extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest
and Tennessee Valley.
...20Z Update...
The main change made to this outlook was to upgrade southern Lower
MI to a Category 3/Enhanced Risk, driven by 30 percent/CIG1 wind
probabilities. A cold-pool-driven MCS, with some bowing tendencies
and a history of producing numerous measured gusts in the 60-70 mph,
is rapidly approaching southern Lower MI. KGRR inbound velocity data
shows a rear-inflow jet exists with this MCS, and surface
observations/latest mesoanalysis show a favorable environment in
place for bow-echo persistence. Surface temperatures are exceeding
90 F in spots, amid 70-75 F surface dewpoints, yielding a gradient
of 1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Up to 30 kts of effective bulk shear
coincides with this buoyancy gradient, with vectors oriented normal
to the MCS leading-line orientation. Therefore, the expectation is
for a damaging wind swath to occur over southern Lower MI with the
passage of this MCS. At least scattered gusts will likely exceed 50
kts in intensity, and a few of these gusts may exceed 75 mph.
30 percent wind-driven probabilities were also added over portions
of eastern PA into far southeastern NY and NJ, where surface
temperatures are exceeding 100 F in spots ahead of a developing
multicellular cluster. While vertical wind shear is modest, the
well-mixed boundary layer is yielding low-level lapse rates well
over 8 C/km on a widespread basis, with corresponding DCAPE
approaching 1500 J/kg. As such, several of the stronger storm cores
may produce wet downbursts capable of at least tree/wire damage on a
scattered basis, and a few severe gusts are also possible.
Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 07/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026/
...SD/NE...
Water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over central WY
approaching the Black Hills region. This, along with remnant
outflow boundaries from recent convection, will aid in the
development of scattered thunderstorms over western SD/NE by
mid/late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell
structures will promote the risk of very large hail in the initial
storms over the Black Hills. Activity is expected to organized into
a bowing MCS during the evening and track roughly along the NE/SD
border with a risk of severe wind and hail.
...NE/IA/Northwest MO...
Moderately strong southerly low-level winds over KS will maintain a
hot/humid air mass across southeast NE today. Thunderstorms are
expected to intensify along pre-existing outflow boundaries by late
afternoon and develop/move into IA. Large CAPE in this region
(MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a
risk of supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through
the evening hours.
...IA/IL/IN/MI/OH...
A remnant outflow boundary is also tracking eastward across the MS
river into northern IL. The air mass ahead of this boundary is very
moist and unstable with dewpoints in the mid 70s and peak diurnal
CAPE values expected to exceed 3500 J/kg. Models differ on
convective evolution of storms that form in this regime, but there
is potential for an upscale-growing MCS producing a swath of wind
damage from northern IL into parts of IN/MI and northwest OH this
evening.
...NY/PA/NJ...
Hot and humid conditions are present across much of the northeast
states today, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level lapse
rates and moderate CAPE. It is unclear how many thunderstorms will
form in this region today given weak forcing. However, the
environment is conditionally favorable for damaging winds in any
convective clusters that can persist.
...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread moist and unstable air mass will aid in the development
of disorganized and slow-moving thunderstorms again this afternoon
and early evening. Weak winds aloft suggest chaotic storm
evolutions, but the strongest cells will pose a risk of locally
damaging winds gusts and small hail throughout the area.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into Mid Atlantic, and across the central Great Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large
hail is also possible across the Great Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will be located over eastern Canada, with southern
periphery sweeping across the Northeast with 30 kt midlevel
westerlies extending as far south as PA/NJ. To the west, a weak
upper trough will move across the northern and central Plains, with
embedded disturbances related to thunderstorms into parts of the
Midwest. Relatively cool temperatures aloft will exist across the
Plains region, aiding destabilization.
At the surface, a trough will extend from the TX Panhandle into MO,
IL, and IN, with a moist and unstable air mass nearby. Easterly
winds north of this trough will maintain moderate moisture levels
into the central High Plains. A surface trough will also deepen over
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic during the day, providing a focus for
storms during the afternoon from VA into PA/NJ.
...PA...VA...MD...DE...NJ...
Substantial moisture and instability will exist across the region,
with tall CAPE profiles and 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE common with 70s F
dewpoints and daytime heating. Storms may develop in several areas,
including southern NY into PA and OH, and, within the trough VA into
PA/NJ.
CAMs generally suggest scattered cells developing by mid afternoon
over much of VA and into PA, MD, DE and NJ. Scattered wind gusts of
40-50 kt appear likely, with isolated stronger gusts. Weak
westerlies aloft may support slow east/southeastward moving cells.
...CO...NE...KS...
Scattered storms are forecast to develop from southeast WY into the
Front Range, as well as western NE, during the afternoon beneath
cool temperatures aloft and where low-level easterlies will aid
moisture advection into the heated air mass. Directional shear may
favor a few cells capable of severe hail, including near the
Colorado Springs area. Addition cells or clusters may spread
southeastward across western NE and northwest KS, with damaging
gusts possible.
A more substantial severe risk may develop into south-central KS and
perhaps far northern OK late in the day. Here, locally larger SRH
will exist north of a weak surface low. Instability will be large as
temperatures warm into the 90s F and dewpoints remain in the upper
60s F. Veering wind with height and effective shear near 40 kt
suggest a few supercells initially, with large hail and locally
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. During the
evening, CAMs suggest an MCS may develop, dropping southeastward
across southern KS, including the Wichita area, and into northern
OK. Damaging wind gusts would be the main concern.
...Parts of Central MO...
CAM signals are mixed with timing of convective systems near the
surface trough. However, strong instability will be present across
the entire region. Depending on later model output, the Slight Risk
may need to be extended farther into MO/I-70 corridor as
predictability increases.
..Jewell.. 07/03/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern
Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms
may affect northern North Dakota late.
...Mid Atlantic States...
Although wind fields aloft will weaken compared to the previous day
as the upper trough lifts out of the Northeast, upper 60s to low 70s
F dewpoints will remain over much of the region. Afternoon storms
are likely to develop from PA southward across the Appalachians, and
these will move eastward into a zone of strong heating/steep
low-level lapse rates into MD/VA. Gusty winds are likely, some
damaging through the evening.
...Northeast NM into northwest TX...
East to southeast surface winds will prevail across the southern
Plains on Sunday, which will aid westward moisture advection into
NM. Shear will be weak, but southeastward-propagating clusters of
storms appear likely late in the day and into the night as storms
move into TX. Sporadic severe gusts may occur.
...Northern ND...
A substantial upper trough will move into the Canadian Prairies late
on Sunday, with the base of this trough sweeping across MT and ND
overnight. A cold front will develop into far eastern MT and western
ND late in the day, proceeding toward the Red River by Monday
morning. Forecast soundings show moderate instability developing,
with veering winds with height and hodographs favorable for
slow-moving supercells. Aiding any such development into the night
will be a nocturnal low-level jet. Isolated large hail appears most
likely.
..Jewell.. 07/03/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...
The Elevated/Critical areas were expanded slightly eastward in
portions of southern Colorado. The most recent high-resolution
forecast guidance indicates that westerly downslope winds look to
extend dry and windy conditions slightly farther east than
previously anticipated. Additionally, some mid-level moisture is
moving into/over portions of Colorado, which along with the very dry
and breezy low levels, deep boundary layer mixing, and active large
fires could result in deep pyroconvection. Otherwise the forecast
remains on track, and please see the previous forecast for more
details.
..Nauslar.. 07/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions is
expected across the greater Four Corners region. Early-morning
surface observations continue to show a very dry air mass in place
across the region with poor overnight RH recoveries as of 06 UTC.
This dry air mass will remain in place, especially as some degree of
subsidence overspreads AZ/NM in the wake of a low-amplitude
mid-level trough. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums will likely
fall into the single digits to low teens once again today.
The passage of the upper wave, coupled with modest zonal flow over
the central Rockies, will promote lee cyclogenesis across eastern
CO. The resulting mass response will yield a swath of 15-20 mph
winds across the Four Corners region. 7-day meteograms from eastern
UT and western CO depict sustained 15-20 mph winds with frequent
gusts between 20-30 mph in recent days under a similar synoptic
regime. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a repeat of these
conditions appears likely today and warrants maintaining Critical
highlights (especially given ongoing fire activity over the region).
...Dry Thunderstorms...
00 UTC RAOBs from LKN, SLC, and RIW all sampled steep mid-level
lapse rates and some degree of mid-level moisture across the
northern Great Basin. Further ascent/cooling is expected over the
next 12-24 hours as a mid-level wave overspreads the region. The
combination of mid-level cooling/moistening, low-level heating, and
PWAT values between 0.4 to 0.6 inches should result in thermodynamic
profiles favorable for dry thunderstorms. Recent fuel analyses
continue to show ERC values generally below the 80th percentile,
which suggests that fuels may not be overly receptive to lightning
starts. This, along with somewhat slow (10-15 knot) storm motions,
limits confidence in a more substantial dry-lightning threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Colorado...
An IsoDryT area was added for portions of central Colorado as
moisture advects westward into the Colorado Rockies. Much of the
moisture will not make it past the Front Range, but deep terrain
circulations and forecast guidance consensus of a weak shortwave
trough/vort max rotating over the area near peak heating should be
enough for isolated thunderstorms. Thunderstorm probabilities are
10-20%, but with any thunderstorm that forms, it will be dry and
over near to record dry fuels. Additionally, any active large fires
in the vicinity of the IsoDryT area will have increased
probabilities of deep pyroconvection.
...Inland Northwest...
Gusty Cascade Gap winds will spread out onto portions of the
Columbia Basin tomorrow. Westerly sustained winds of 10-20 mph with
gusts of 20-30 mph amid minimum RH of 12-25% are forecast tomorrow
across portions of the Inland Northwest. Locally elevated conditions
may develop farther south in portions of central/eastern Oregon as
well.
..Nauslar.. 07/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Saturday compared to
previous days. A building upper-level ridge across the
Southwest/Four Corners will maintain very dry conditions across UT
and CO with another day of single-digit RH minimums likely. However,
this will also act to limit the intensity of the lee cyclone over
the southern/central High Plains and displace it further east across
KS compared to previous days. Consequently, the mass response over
the Four Corners will be weaker, limiting the potential for
sustained elevated/critical wind speeds. While localized elevated
conditions are possible across the greater Four Corners region
(particularly across NM), such conditions will likely be fairly
transient and confined to local terrain features.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
An influx of Pacific moisture is expected across AZ and western NM
through the day Saturday. Steep lapse rates will likely accompany
the leading edge of the returning moisture and may support pockets
of sufficient buoyancy for transient thunderstorms across far
eastern AZ and into western/central NM. While this potential is
noted, confidence is very limited owing to considerable spread among
recent guidance regarding thunderstorm development and coverage.
However, if convection can develop some dry-lightning threat will
likely materialize given antecedent dry boundary-layer conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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