Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MIDDLE GULF
COAST AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be possible mainly this afternoon and evening across the
Dakotas and northwest Minnesota as well as the central High Plains.
Other severe storms may focus across the lower Mississippi Valley
and middle Gulf Coast, as well as the coastal Carolinas.

...Dakotas/Upper Midwest to central High Plains...
An eastward-moving shortwave trough will emerge from the Canadian
Rockies and move across the Canadian prairies through tonight, with
a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing
the Dakotas to Minnesota. Residual early day convection and
lingering cloud cover will be complicating factors as far as the
later-day forecast scenario. 

That said, at least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop
and increase by late afternoon within a moist/unstable air mass near
the eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across the
east-central Dakotas and/or cross the international border and move
southeastward into the region. Deep-layer wind profiles would be
conducive to some supercells and the development of
east/southeastward-moving clusters by evening, with large hail and
damaging winds possible.

More removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, additional
higher-based storms are expected by late afternoon and early evening
south-southwestward across the Black Hills/western Nebraska in
vicinity of the front and preceding trough. Sufficient
strength/veering of winds with height should support some initial
supercells capable of hail, prior to a clustering of these
southeastward-moving storms, with wind damage being a possibility
through mid/late evening across the central High Plains.  

...Coastal Carolinas...
The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonic flow
aloft, with a moist and moderate-to-strongly unstable environment
along the coastal plain to the east of a stationary/slow-moving
front. The degree of buoyancy and upwards of 35-40 kt effective
shear could support some initial supercells with hail this
afternoon, although damaging winds should be the most prevalent
concern as storms become more numerous. Severe potential should tend
to wane by around sunset.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast...
Widely scattered elevated convection has developed early in the
overnight across the Ozarks, and this regime may increase and
probably shift south-southeastward today, potentially becoming
surface based into the afternoon, influenced by cold pool
development. It seems plausible that an upscale-growing/forward
propagating cluster could gradually evolve during the day, with
damaging wind potential increasing across the ArkLaMiss
south-southeastward toward the Gulf Coast.

...Northern Great Basin/central Rockies...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon amid classic inverted-V profiles. Since these storms will
develop along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, some
organization is possible. Multiple dry microbursts may occur, some
of which may pose a severe gust threat.

...Maine...
By late morning into early afternoon, partially clearing skies will
encourage surface temperatures to rise into the 70s F, resulting in
marginal instability (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE) given
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, a southerly
mid-to upper-level jet streak will overspread northern New England
during the afternoon, resulting in highly elongated hodographs and
30-40 kt of effective shear. As such, any storms that can develop
and become sustained should become organized multicells capable of
supporting a few damaging gusts and possibly some hail.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/24/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the
central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may also
occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
Upper Midwest on Tuesday with an associated surface low and cold
front moving across Minnesota and eventually into Wisconsin. Low 60s
dewpoints ahead of this cold front will result in weak to moderate
instability by mid-afternoon. Storm organization may be somewhat
lacking during the afternoon, but as the mid-level jet streak
overspreads the warm sector during the evening, a more favorable
environment is expected across northwest Wisconsin and vicinity.
Within this zone, a few supercells may occur during the evening with
a greater severe weather threat. However, the limited temporal and
spatial scale, and some concerns about storm coverage during this
timeframe, preclude Slight Risk issuance at this time. 

...Central Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast within a northwesterly
flow pattern across the central Plains. Weak height falls and strong
heating should result in scattered storm coverage across most of the
High Plains by the mid to late afternoon. 00Z guidance has trended
toward a stronger convective signal and greater instability across
southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Have shifted the Day 3 Slight
Risk area accordingly. While storms remain likely across much of
this region, the more organized severe threat will likely be near
the greatest instability. 

...Southeast...
Moderate to strong heating is expected amid a very moist airmass
(mid 70s dewpoints) from the Gulf Coast to the GA/SC coast. Within
this zone, strong to isolated severe storms capable of water-loaded
downdrafts and some damaging wind potential are expected.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...Synopsis...
A subtle/low-amplitude midlevel wave will move northeastward across
parts of the northern Great Basin today. Farther south, a separate
shortwave trough will track southeastward across the
central/southern Plains -- along the northeastern periphery of an
expansive upper ridge centered on the southern Rockies. In response
to this feature, a surface low will evolve slowly eastward across
parts of OK.

...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin...
Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing beneath a well-established
midlevel moisture plume will contribute to weak surface-based
destabilization across parts of the northern Great Basin today. As
large-scale forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel wave
overspreads this instability, isolated high-based thunderstorms will
track northeastward across the area. The deeply mixed boundary layer
(inverted-V profiles) and 25-30 mph storm motions will favor dry
thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions -- given
receptive fuels. 

...Southern Plains...
Along/behind the evolving surface low, a dry air mass (15-20 percent
RH) will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface
winds. These dry/breezy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels
(95th+ percentile ERCs) will yield elevated fire-weather conditions
during the late morning and afternoon.

..Weinman.. 08/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...