WW 534 SEVERE TSTM SD 302125Z - 310300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western into North-Central South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast
to develop and intensify through the early evening. A couple of
small thunderstorm clusters may evolve ahead of an upper disturbance
as some propensity for storms to produce outflow acts to consolidate
the severe risk by early evening. Severe gusts 60 to 70 mph are the
primary hazard but isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter is
possible too.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast
of Buffalo SD to 60 miles west southwest of Pierre SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Smith
WW 533 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 301845Z - 310200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Nebraska
Southern South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway within the warm and
moist environment in place across portions of South Dakota and
Nebraska. Strong buoyancy will support robust updrafts capable of
isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Additionally, upscale
growth could result in the development of one or more convective
lines over the next several hours. Strong gusts will be possible
within these convective lines as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 90 miles north northwest
of Valentine NE to 25 miles east of North Platte NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Mosier
WW 0534 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0534 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE AIA
TO 50 ENE CDR TO 25 E RAP TO 25 SSW PIR TO 30 NNW VTN TO 20 S VTN
TO 15 E ANW TO 25 NNW ONL.
..KERR..07/30/26
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...FSD...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-015-017-031-041-063-071-075-085-089-091-111-113-115-
117-149-171-183-310040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD
BROWN CHERRY CUSTER
FRONTIER GARFIELD GRANT
HAYES HOLT HOOKER
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS
WHEELER
SDC007-071-075-095-121-310040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT JACKSON JONES
MELLETTE TODD
MD 1806 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533... FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1806
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Areas affected...much of central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533...
Valid 302241Z - 302345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533
continues.
SUMMARY...A growing and organizing cluster of storms accompanied by
increasing potential to produce swaths of strong to severe wind
gusts appears probable through 7-9 PM CDT. Trends are being
monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch
east and south of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533.
DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development continues to gradually
grow upscale, with an expanding and strengthening surface cold
pool, which will continue to slowly advance south of the Winner SD,
Valentine and Ainsworth NE vicinities during the next few hours.
The most intense cell has generally been focused along the
southwestern flank of the outflow, where low-level convergence has
become enhanced near its intersection with a weak wind shift within
broader weak surface troughing. However, south-southeasterly
updraft inflow of seasonably high low-level moisture content (which
appears to be contributing to CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) may
support a broader area of intensifying convection into the 00-02Z
time frame.
Although deep-layer westerly mean flow is still modest (on the order
of 20 kt), due to pronounced veering of low through mid-level wind
fields, shear through the lowest 5-6 km is strong and may support
the evolution of an organizing cluster with increasing potential to
produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.
..Kerr.. 07/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 42080050 42419922 42929895 42889782 41609750 40949917
41010019 41870106 42080050
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND NORTHERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are
forecast this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and
northern Plains, but especially across parts of South Dakota,
Nebraska, and north-central Kansas. Isolated severe wind gusts may
also occur across parts of the Southeast.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with
this update. The eastern edge of the SLGT Risk was trimmed in
portions of eastern SD and northeastern NE. Here, persistent
convection within a weak warm-advection regime preceding a remnant
MCV will limit air mass recovery and temper the overall severe risk
this afternoon. Farther west, a minor expansion of the SLGT Risk was
made over southwestern SD and western NE, where ample boundary-layer
heating/destabilization of a moist air mass is underway along/ahead
of a well-defined surface trough/wind shift. Any thunderstorms that
develop and track southeastward through this corridor will pose a
risk of large hail initially, with an increasing risk of severe wind
gusts as storms grow upscale.
Finally, the SLGT Risk was expanded slightly southeastward in far
southeastern NE and northeastern KS. The latest high-resolution
guidance is in good agreement, depicting one or more organized line
segments tracking southeastward tonight. Despite increasing
nocturnal PBL cooling/stabilization ahead of this activity, a
strengthening 30-40-kt southerly LLJ should help maintain a risk of
damaging wind gusts into overnight hours.
For additional details on the severe risk through the afternoon, see
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533, and MCDs 1803 and 1804.
..Weinman.. 07/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026/
...Northern/Central Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within a modest
warm-air advection regime from central SD into northeast NE. These
storms will likely weaken over the next few hours as the low to
mid-level flow decreases. This should allow for sufficient airmass
recovery/destabilization by the late afternoon across much of the
region. Recent surface analysis depicted 70s dewpoints into far
south-central NE, as well as pockets of greater low-level moisture
in western SD and ahead of a cold front in northeast ND. Heating
within this moist environment to the west of the ongoing storms (and
associated cloudiness) is expected to result in a corridor of strong
to very strong buoyancy by this afternoon.
Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across
southeast MT and WY. Expectation is for this wave to continue
eastward, interacting with the destabilized and buoyant airmass
across the north/central Plains to support thunderstorm development.
Initial development appears most likely across western/central SD
where the ascent attendant to this shortwave trough will be
augmented by mesoscale lift near a surface low currently over
southwest SD. A more cellular mode is likely early in the convective
cycle, with a trend towards a more clustered/linear mode thereafter.
Primary threat will be strong gusts with some isolated hail
possible, particularly early during the more cellular mode.
In addition to the low over southwest SD, recent surface analysis
placed another low over northwest KS. Weak troughing between these
lows, likely sharpened by baroclinicity driven by differential
heating, could act as a favorable corridor for forward propagation
if a more coherent linear structure materializes.
...Eastern ND into northern MN...
Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from eastern ND
into northern MN along a southeastward-progressing cold front
forecast to move through the region. Moderate buoyancy will precede
this front, but vertical shear will be modest, limiting storm
organization and duration. Even so, buoyancy will be strong enough
for occasional damaging gusts and isolated instances of hail.
...Northern/Central High Plains...
Pockets of moderate instability may develop in parts of eastern
Colorado, western Kansas and eastern Montana. Although large-scale
ascent will be weak in these areas, topographic forcing will aid
convective initiation. During the mid/late afternoon into evening,
isolated to scattered storms will move east-southeastward into the
lower elevations, with localized strong to severe wind gusts and
hail possible. Slightly stronger vertical shear is possible across
north-central/northeast MT, where a few more organized storms are
possible.
...Central Gulf Coast into northern FL/southern GA...
A modest baroclinic boundary extends from central AL southeastward
through southern/southeast GA. Dewpoints to the south of this
boundary are in the 70s, with temperatures already in the upper
80s/low 90s. Moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to build
across this region south of the boundary, with low-level convergence
contributing to scattered to widespread thunderstorm development.
Vertical shear will remain weak, and a largely disorganized
multicellular storm mode is expected. Even so, water loading within
some of the stronger storms that develop and mature could result in
isolated damaging wind gusts through late afternoon/early evening.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible across portions of
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Central Gulf Coast states,
and over parts of central and eastern New Mexico Saturday afternoon
and evening.
...OH Valley southward into MS and AL...
A shortwave trough will move from the mid MS Valley southeastward
into the OH and TN Valleys on Saturday, with modest 25-30 kt
midlevel southwesterlies developing ahead of it. At the surface, low
pressure will move across southern IL and IN during the day, with a
cold front extending southwestward across the lower MS Valley by
late afternoon. A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the cold
front, with 70s F dewpoints.
Areas of early rain/storms are likely to be ongoing within the warm
advection zone east of the low over IN/KY/TN, but southwest surface
winds and heating will result in moderate instability redeveloping
ahead of the cold front with MLCAPE averaging 2000-2500 J/kg. The
front will easily support scattered storms by mid afternoon from IN
southward into MS/AL. Marginal deep-layer shear combined with
substantial moisture content should yield corridors of mixed-mode
storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginal hail.
A weak tornado or two cannot be ruled out where low-level winds are
backed within the very moist/low-LCL environment, but overall it
appears these would be brief.
...Much of eastern NM...
Winds aloft will adjust to more of a northerly direction on
Saturday, with a cold front plunging south into TX. Western portions
of this front will extend into eastern NM, where 50s F dewpoints
will remain, along with easterly surface winds.
Midlevel lapse rates will be relatively steep, with the northerly
flow regime resulting in around 40 kt deep-layer effective shear.
This combination should support a few severe storms capable of hail
or damaging gusts as storms develop over the higher terrain and move
generally southward through the evening.
..Jewell.. 07/30/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the Day 2/Friday Fire Weather Outlook; see
the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will begin to move onshore overnight
over the Pacific Northwest, with upper-level ridging stretching from
the Desert Southwest through the northern Rockies ahead of it. A
weaker mid-level shortwave trough is likely to precede the larger
upper-level trough and move from northern California into the
northern Rockies before weakening amid the building heights.
Monsoonal thunderstorms are likely to remain mostly along/east of
the Divide in Colorado and New Mexico, while still likely to develop
across portions southeast Arizona.
Hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions are likely across much of
the West, especially the Intermountain West, ahead of the
upper-level trough. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible across
portions of central/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana during the
afternoon and evening, but forecast guidance indicates less than a
20% chance and mostly less than 10% chance of thunderstorms. Better
chances of thunderstorms are likely across portions of Wyoming but
are likely to be wetter and over less receptive fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust fire weather pattern is expected across portions of the
Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and portions of the northern
Plains this weekend. Multiple days of very dry and windy conditions
amid an exceptionally dry fuelscape will promote significant fire
weather concerns for numerous ongoing large wildfires across the
region and any new ignitions.
Upper-level troughing should persist over the northeastern CONUS
into early next week, while high pressure will remain centered over
the Desert Southwest through the forecast period. An upper low will
transition into British Columbia on Day 3/Saturday with amplified
southwesterly flow over the Pacific Northwest. A dry cold front will
quickly progress southward across the Northwest and northern Great
Basin through Day 4/Sunday. This feature will reinforce gusty
surface winds amid a dry airmass across much of the northwestern
CONUS through Day 5/Monday. Next week, long-range model guidance
begins to differ in the progression of the overall upper pattern.
Some solutions depict a temporary ridge to rebuild over the western
CONUS, while others portray a shortwave trough impinging upon the
Pacific Northwest.
...Days 3-5/Saturday-Monday - Northwestern US...
As the upper low transitions into British Columbia and a surface low
amplifies across southern Alberta on Day 3/Saturday, a dry cold
front will progress southward through the Pacific Northwest. East of
the Cascades and Northern Rockies, a tightening surface pressure
gradient and an emerging 700 mb 40-50 kt jet will promote strong
southwest-westerly surface winds amid a very dry boundary layer --
allowing greater potential for critical fire conditions to
materialize, especially where ERCs are approaching the 95th
percentile. As such, 70% Critical probabilities have been expanded
into eastern Oregon, the Idaho Panhandle, and northwestern Montana.
In addition, recent guidance indicates a corridor of sustained 20-30
mph winds amid 15-20% RH in central-eastern Washington, possibly
leading to extremely critical fire weather concerns where a few
large fires are ongoing.
Hot, dry, and windy conditions will shift slightly eastward on Day
4/Sunday, encompassing portions of the northern High Plains. 70%
Critical probabilities have been introduced across much of Montana,
central-eastern Idaho, and western Wyoming where very strong winds
and critically low RH are forecast amid dry fuels. While recent
accumulating rainfall has provided some relief to western South
Dakota, eastern Wyoming, and the Nebraska Panhandle, fine fuels may
grow increasingly receptive by Sunday. As such, 40% Critical
probabilities have been expanded where low RH and gusty winds should
overlap.
On Day 5/Monday, stronger southwest/westerly flow aloft will finally
begin to exit the region, pushing into the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. Nevertheless, residual dry and breezy conditions are
expected across the northern Great Basin into western Wyoming,
supporting 40% Critical probabilities.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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