Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe
hail and wind is possible across parts of the central and eastern
Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota Monday into Monday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an
associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly
prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and
central Great Plains during this period.  Mid-level heights may tend
to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern
Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable
mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario
and Hudson Bay by late Monday night.

It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing,
and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the
north of the international border, may provide support for stronger
secondary cyclogenesis near the northern Manitoba/Ontario border
into southern Hudson Bay late Monday/Monday night.

To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may
continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the
Appalachians.

In association with this evolving regime, the potential for
organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low
Monday through Monday night across most areas, with the possible
exception of parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern
Minnesota  

...Northern Great Plains...
Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to
pass to the north of the international border through this period. 
However, there appears at least some signal in model output that
boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak pre-frontal
surface troughing, coincident with southeastward suppression of
warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, could
allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk
for severe hail and wind across parts of the central/eastern Dakotas
into northwestern Minnesota.  Preceding the leading edge of the
cooling in lower/mid-levels, it is possible that a zone of
strengthening ascent associated with warm advection could support an
upscale growing cluster, aided by updraft inflow of moderately
unstable air.  However, this remains more uncertain at this time.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that
considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and
subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to
the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered
near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. 
Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West
through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.  

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may
be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include
evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. 
However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days
across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential,
if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet
to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging is noted across the southwestern CONUS/northwest
Mexico in early-morning water-vapor imagery. This ridge is expected
to build northward over the next 24 hours and will maintain very
dry, but relatively benign, conditions across the Four Corners/Great
Basin region where fuels remain the driest. However, more focused
fire weather concerns may emerge within the lee of the Cascades and
across portions of central Colorado this afternoon and early
evening. 

...Cascades...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in water-vapor imagery
approaching the Pacific Northwest. Stronger low and mid-level flow
associated with this wave will overspread the Cascades through the
day, resulting in strengthening downslope winds along the eastern
slopes. Latest high-res guidance depicts 15-20 mph winds through the
more prominent gaps where downslope warming/drying will likely
result in pockets of 20-25% relative humidity. Although sustained
elevated fire weather conditions may be somewhat localized, recent
fire activity suggests fuels are adequately receptive to support the
fire weather concern.

...Colorado...
The 00 UTC GJT sounding from western CO sampled very steep (9.4
C/km) mid-level lapse rates with adequate mid-level moisture to
support weak buoyancy despite a PWAT value of only 0.35 inches. This
air mass will advect eastward over the next 18 hours and will likely
support pockets of adequate MUCAPE for weak convection this
afternoon. Despite upper-level height rises, upslope flow along the
central Rockies may support a few thunderstorms to the west of the
Front Range where very dry low-level conditions will be favorable
for dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuels across the region and
some potential for dry lightning strikes, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
highlights were maintained.

..Moore.. 07/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...