WW 685 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 142020Z - 150400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 685
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Oklahoma
West and Northwest Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms including some supercells
will continue to develop regionally, with bowing segments evolving
into this evening across the Texas Low Rolling Plains, western North
Texas, and southern Oklahoma.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles south of Midland
TX to 30 miles northwest of Fort Sill OK. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...Guyer
WW 0685 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 685
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E FST TO
50 W MWL.
..LYONS..10/15/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 685
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC019-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-150440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER GARVIN JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS
TXC081-105-235-383-431-451-150440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COKE CROCKETT IRION
REAGAN STERLING TOM GREEN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 15 05:50:31 UTC 2026.SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two are possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. Additional storms with isolated severe wind gusts will
be possible in parts of the southern Plains.
...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward today into the Northeast,
as a large-scale trough moves into the Great Plains. Ahead of the
trough, a surface low will track northeastward from the mid
Mississippi Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Ahead of the
surface low, a warm front will move northward through the Ohio
Valley. To the south of the warm front, surface dewpoints will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s F. This will enable an axis of
instability to develop by afternoon, with MLCAPE likely peaking
around 1000 J/kg. Ahead of the trough, a mid-level jet will
overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. This will create
moderate deep-layer shear over much of the Ohio Valley, which will
support isolated supercell development. In addition, RAP forecast
soundings in the Ohio Valley by mid afternoon have 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range suggesting
that a tornado or two will be possible. Short line segments capable
of isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. Poor lapse
rates will be the main limiting factor for a greater severe threat
coverage and magnitude.
...Southern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move into the Great Plains today, as
mid-level flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southward across the southern
Plains, with the front located from west-central Texas into
southeast Oklahoma by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be
weak, low-level convergence along and near the front will result in
thunderstorm development. Storms will move east-southeastward across
a narrow corridor of instability, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak
in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. As low-level lapse rates steepen in
the afternoon, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with
multicells. However, deep-layer shear will be marginal for organized
convection, and poor lapse rates will be a major limiting factor.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/15/2026
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two are possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic
Friday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
The models continue to slow the progression of an intense midlevel
trough, which will track through the Mississippi Valley and Great
Lakes toward the Appalachians by early Saturday. An attending belt
of strong, southwesterly mid/upper-level flow (e.g., 70-90 kt at 500
mb) will precede the trough, the eastern edge of which will
overspread the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. In the low levels, a
surface cyclone will develop from the lower Great Lakes into the
Gulf of St. Lawrence, while a trailing cold front advances from the
lower Great Lakes/upper-Ohio Valley regions Friday morning to off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday night.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Friday from northern
PA and NY into New England, with lingering clouds and decreasing
boundary-layer moisture with northward extent limiting air mass
destabilization in the vicinity of the surface low. Farther south
ahead of the cold front, greater diabatic heating will combine with
dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 F to yield MLCAPE approaching
500-750 J/kg by mid afternoon. Overall CAPE depth and magnitude will
be limited by warm temperatures aloft on the anticyclonic side of
the upper-level jet streak.
Renewed thunderstorm development is anticipated by late morning or
early afternoon along the front over eastern OH and WV into western
parts of PA and NY. An increase in storm coverage and intensity is
expected through the remainder of the afternoon as the front
encounters a more unstable air mass with eastward extent. Vertical
shear will be strong with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-55
kt, suggesting the potential for embedded supercells and/or bowing
structures within the line. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
hazard, though a brief tornado or two appear possible in the
Delaware River Valley and Delmarva, where locally stronger low-level
shear is forecast during the late afternoon into early evening.
An upgrade to Level-2/Slight Risk has been included with this
forecast update to highlight the area where the most favorable
overlap of instability and vertical shear is forecast from mid
afternoon into early evening.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
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