WW 651 SEVERE TSTM MN 032045Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of potentially severe storms will continue to
move eastward and pose risks for damaging winds and isolated large
hail through early evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of Hibbing
MN to 30 miles east southeast of Brainerd MN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 647...WW 648...WW
649...WW 650...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Guyer
WW 650 SEVERE TSTM MD PA WV 032035Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
435 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Maryland
Western and Central Pennsylvania
Eastern West Virginia
* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight
EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of severe storm clusters are expected to
move into the region from the northwest and impact the region this
evening, with wind damage as the most common hazard.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of
Williamsport PA to 35 miles south southwest of Martinsburg WV. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 647...WW 648...WW 649...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
31025.
...Guyer
WW 649 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV LE 031900Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and Eastern Ohio
Western Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia
Lake Erie
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity
across the region the remainder of the afternoon, with the
development of east/southeastward-moving clusters. This will be
ahead of what could be a more prominent linear cluster moving
southeastward into the region out of southeast lower Michigan, which
could cross northern/eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania through
early evening. Damaging winds will be the most concern severe
concern.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Mansfield OH to 15 miles east northeast of Latrobe PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 647...WW 648...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
31025.
...Guyer
WW 647 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 031710Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
Eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM
until 800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will likely continue eastward across
northern Minnesota, with additional south-peripheral development or
redevelopment expected along the trailing gust front. The net result
will be an east/southeastward-shifting zone of potentially
repetitive severe storms through early evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest
of Grand Forks ND to 10 miles east of Bemidji MN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Guyer
WW 0651 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 651
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..09/03/26
ATTN...WFO...DLH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 651
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-017-021-035-061-071-137-032240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN CARLTON CASS
CROW WING ITASCA KOOCHICHING
ST. LOUIS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0650 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0650 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0649 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 649
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2217
..MOORE..09/03/26
ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN...RLX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 649
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC005-007-013-019-029-031-033-035-041-043-055-059-063-067-075-
077-081-083-085-089-093-095-099-101-103-111-115-117-119-121-123-
127-133-139-143-147-151-153-155-157-167-169-173-175-032140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND ASHTABULA BELMONT
CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON
CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DELAWARE
ERIE GEAUGA GUERNSEY
HANCOCK HARRISON HOLMES
HURON JEFFERSON KNOX
LAKE LICKING LORAIN
LUCAS MAHONING MARION
MEDINA MONROE MORGAN
MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE
OTTAWA PERRY PORTAGE
RICHLAND SANDUSKY SENECA
STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL
TUSCARAWAS WASHINGTON WAYNE
WOOD WYANDOT
WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE FWA
TO 20 N MTC TO 45 ENE MTC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2217
..MOORE..09/03/26
ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...IWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 648
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC091-099-115-163-032140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LENAWEE MACOMB MONROE
WAYNE
OHC051-032140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FULTON
LCZ423-460-LEZ444-032140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WW 0647 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 647
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E JMS TO
20 WNW FAR TO 15 SW TVF TO 25 ESE HCO.
..MARSH..09/03/26
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 647
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-007-027-029-057-087-089-107-113-119-125-032240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BELTRAMI CLAY
CLEARWATER HUBBARD MAHNOMEN
MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE
NDC003-017-032240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 2218 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649... FOR EASTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN MARYLAND...AND FAR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania...western
Maryland...and far northern West Virginia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...
Valid 032016Z - 032215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649
continues.
SUMMARY...Supercells across eastern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania will likely grow upscale and pose a more substantial
wind threat downstream into central Pennsylvania through the
evening. Downstream watch issuance is expected soon.
DISCUSSION...Discrete to semi-discrete supercells are evident in
regional radar imagery across northeast OH and northwest PA with a
few instances of severe hail noted over the past hour. Regional VWPs
continue to sample elongated hodographs favorable for splitting
supercells with an attendant threat for large hail for the next hour
or so. Given the propensity for splitting cells and tight clustering
of convection, upscale growth into one or more organized lines
appears probable over the coming hours. As this occurs, the
potential for severe wind should increase as convection moves into
central PA where air mass recovery has been ongoing through the
afternoon (MLCAPE has increased to 1000-1500 J/kg per recent
mesoanalysis estimates).
..Moore.. 09/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41068148 41388079 41698017 41397732 41157698 40807689
39967720 39607747 39487796 39527869 40278123 40498158
40728172 40888169 41068148
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight,
including a few organizing clusters, posing a risk for severe wind
and hail across parts of the southern Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic
and portions of the northern Great Plains to the Upper Midwest.
...20Z Update...
Minor adjustments have been made to the outlook to account for
recent convective trends and the latest high-resolution forecast
guidance. Portions of the Slight Risk in North Dakota have been
trimmed behind the ongoing convective complex that has since moved
into northern Minnesota, given the trailing airmass has stabilized
and is less likely to see additional convective development.
Additionally, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward from
Wisconsin into portions of Upper Michigan to account for recent
guidance trending northward with the overnight convective complex
and its associated damaging-wind threat. Otherwise, the previous
forecast remains unchanged and on-track for this evening.
..Halbert/Weinman.. 09/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026/
...Lake Michigan/upper Ohio River Valley/Northeast...
Several clusters of storms are ongoing at midday across the Lake
Michigan vicinity and lower Michigan, including a smaller lead
cluster entering Ontario, while other convection farther
east-southeast has weakened/diminished across southern
Pennsylvania/Maryland. Regarding the easternmost activity, steady
air mass recovery/diminishing cloud cover appears likely, with ample
insolation across the Northeast along/south of the primary synoptic
front including much of Pennsylvania.
Available regional 12z observed soundings/RAOBs sampled a belt of
moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft that overlies the primary
frontal zone, with moderate to locally strong destabilization
expected outside of the ongoing convection. Some initial supercells
are possible, but more prevalent will be the possibility of
upscale-growing linear bands/clusters, potentially with multiple
rounds of strong/severe convection this afternoon into tonight with
wind damage. This currently appears most probable across northern
Ohio into Pennsylvania.
...Upper Midwest - eastern North Dakota/northern Minnesota...
A slow-moving linear cluster of occasionally severe storms may
persist and gradually accelerate east and maybe eventually
east-southeastward today, potentially becoming more surface based by
later in the afternoon as it parallels the immediate north side of a
surface frontal zone. This development is being influenced by a
northeastward-transitioning shortwave trough along the international
border, with a belt of strong mid/high-level winds extending
eastward across the northern half of Minnesota toward the Lake
Superior vicinity.
A mixed convective mode seems probable, with a prominent
quasi-linear mode but also the possibility of south-end
semi-discrete development including supercells. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary hazards, but some tornado risk may
exist as well. One or more clusters may persist east-southeastward
across the region this evening.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AND FAR
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across
portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Saturday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe
wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains
and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.
...Synopsis...
A prominent, mid-level ridge will persist over the central U.S. with
troughs on either side, over the western CONUS and in the Northeast.
Similar to previous days, thunderstorm development will largely be
associated with subtle mid-level disturbances embedded within the
broader-scale pattern. One more notable perturbation is expected to
progress from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas on Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure is
forecast over the northern Plains with an attending boundary
extending through the Midwest to the southern Mid-Atlantic or
Carolinas.
...Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas...
Latest model guidance is in good agreement in depicting a cluster of
thunderstorms over portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley at
12Z Saturday, likely associated with the mid-level disturbance
mentioned above. It remains unclear whether any of the early-day
storms will persist into the afternoon. Those that do are likely to
intensify as they encounter a hot, moist, and moderately unstable
air mass present across portions of VA into the Carolinas.
Additional, in-situ storm development appears possible along the
primary front and lee trough. An increase in mid-level flow and
resultant deep-layer shear (up to 30-35 kt) is expected with the
arrival of the mid-level disturbance, suggesting the potential for
organized storm modes, with the primary hazard being damaging wind
gusts Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Northern Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast Saturday afternoon in the
vicinity of the surface low and attending front. The close proximity
to the mid-level ridge leads to uncertainty in convective evolution
through the forecast period. However, a number of models, both
ensemble and deterministic, indicate storm development during the
peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Given the degree of instability
and ample deep-layer shear, a few severe storms appear possible with
the primary hazards being large hail and severe wind gusts.
..Mead.. 09/03/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest while
modest southwesterly flow aloft will persist over the northern
Rockies and northern High Plains through D2/Friday. South-southwest
winds are likely to remain elevated tonight as a surface low deepens
across north-central MT into Friday. This surface low along with a
amplifying low-level jet at 850 mb over the region will support poor
overnight recoveries, only rising to 25-30% in some locations. A
very dry boundary layer will persist through Friday across eastern
WY and portions of the northern High Plains. RH reductions by
mid-afternoon will be 10-15% across south-central MT and central WY
with sub 10% RH most likely farther east across the northern High
Plains. South to southwest winds of 15-20 mph aligned with low RH
and receptive fuels will promote an elevated fire weather across the
area Friday afternoon.
...Great Basin...
Similarly dry, southwest flow southeast of the upper trough across
the Pacific Northwest is expected across southeastern portions of
the Great Basin Friday. Marginal fuels across southeastern NV and
southwestern UT should mitigate a broader fire weather threat but
localized elevated fire weather conditions could impact locations
where recent rainfall was minimal and pockets of dry fuels remain.
..Williams.. 09/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
An additional day of Elevated fire weather conditions can be
expected across the northern High Plains on Day 2/Friday. With the
persistent large trough dominating the Northwestern CONUS, an
upper-level jet streak will round it's base and allow for stronger
winds centered over ID on the afternoon of Day 2/Friday. Given the
continued compact surface pressure gradient and well-mixed boundary
layer over the region, windy and dry conditions will impact the
surface, resulting in afternoon sustained southwesterly winds of
15-20 mph coincident with RHs of 10-20%. Again, portions of the
southern to central Great Basin will experience similar wind/RH
conditions, but fuels remain less receptive to ignitions. Meanwhile,
upper-level ridging remains over the central CONUS, prolonging hot
and dry conditions in the central and southern Great Plains. This
continues to cure both dead and live fuels in the absence of
widespread beneficial precipitation.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough bringing much of the northwestern U.S. cooler
temperatures, cloud cover and rain will linger over the region
through the weekend, ejecting into the Northern Plains by Day
6/Tuesday. Subtropical moisture advecting into the Desert Southwest
and Great Basin Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday will likely bring additional
cloud cover and some rain to this region. This troughing pattern and
attendant precipitation will largely mitigate fire weather concerns
in the western U.S. through the middle of next week. Hot and dry
conditions under a persistent upper ridge over the central CONUS are
expected through the weekend although accompanied by relatively
light surface winds.
...Southern Plains...
As the upper-level trough and attendant mid-level jet accelerates
into the northern Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday, a surface low
should evolve across the Northern Plains. The increasing pressure
gradient will likely enhance southerly winds across the central and
southern Plains where fuels remain very dry (forecasted ERC values
in the 90-95th percentile range). This could pose a fire weather
threat to portions of the central/southern Plains where rainfall
deficits and cured/receptive fuels persist. However, forecast
uncertainty in RH reductions and degree of a drier,
downslope-enhanced southwesterly flow precludes introduction of
critical probabilities with this outlook.
..Williams.. 09/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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