Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.

...Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the central Rockies and this feature will move into the central
High Plains late tonight.  A frontal zone this morning is draped
from near the Raton Mesa into the TX Panhandle extends
east-northeastward across northern OK into the Ozarks.  A weak
surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning
will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening. 
Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist fetch into OK today
and into the Ozarks and parts of the mid MS Valley.  A dryline is
forecast to mix eastward across the southern High Plains by late
this afternoon, intersecting the surface front in the northwest
TX/southwest OK vicinity.

Convection will likely be inhibited during the day across much of
the MRGL Risk owing to both capping and weak mid-level shortwave
ridging.  The strongest heating and low-level convergence is
forecast across parts of northwest TX/southwest OK where convective
inhibition will become weakened by late afternoon.  Have adjusted
severe hail probabilities farther south into parts of northwest TX
to account for the potential for a supercell or two this evening
into the overnight hours.  As large-scale forcing for ascent
continues to strengthen through the evening into the overnight,
expected widely scattered thunderstorms to eventually develop near
the frontal zone (perhaps favoring a northwest OK/southern KS
corridor).  Large hail will be the hazard with the stronger storms. 
Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may
pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS
into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.

..Smith/Wendt.. 03/03/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon and evening on Wednesday from north-central Texas and
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois.  Large hail and occasional wind damage will be
the primary threats.

...Southern Plains to lower OH Valley...
A midlevel shortwave trough now over CO will progress eastward and
reach the mid MS Valley by early Thursday, in response to an
amplifying wave upstream over the Great Basin/CA.  An associated
weak surface wave will develop east-northeastward along a
quasi-stationary baroclinic from the Ozarks to the lower OH Valley,
and this baroclinic zone will serve as the primary focus for ascent
and convection Wednesday into early Thursday. Boundary-layer
dewpoints in the 60s will be prevalent along and south of the front
by tomorrow, given the returning moisture already present from
southeast OK into MS.  The low-level moistening will occur beneath
the eastern extent of an elevated mixed layer with 7-8 C/km midlevel
lapse rates, per 12z soundings across the southern Plains.  Surface
heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg
with diminishing convective inhibition along the front through the
afternoon.

Elevated convection could be ongoing at the start of the period
across southeast KS/northeast OK in a zone of low-level warm
advection.  Storms will spread east-northeastward through the day
toward southeast MO/southern IL and vicinity, while additional
storms are probable along the front during the afternoon/evening
from central/north TX into eastern OK/western AR.  Deep-layer and
low-level vertical shear will be sufficient for storm clusters and
some supercell structures by late afternoon/evening closer to the
path of the weak cyclone and midlevel trough across southern MO,
where there will be the potential for large hail, damaging gusts,
and a couple of tornadoes.  Deep-layer shear will be weaker farther
to the southwest toward TX where storms should be more
isolated/discrete with an accompanying threat for large hail. 
Convection may persist through the overnight hours to the immediate
cool side of the front.

..Thompson.. 03/03/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 031700Z - 041200Z

A surface front is oriented generally southeast to northwest from
western Oklahoma through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to along/near
the Front Range. No changes were made to the outlook, but there is
some uncertainty regarding elevated conditions developing in
north-northeastern portions of the Elevated area due to the frontal
position and expected southwest movement of it later today and
tonight. Additionally, locally elevated conditions may extend
through east/southeast portions of the Texas Panhandle. Please see
the previous discussion for more details.

..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough currently analyzed over the Great Basin
and Four Corners will eject eastward across the High Plains today.
At the surface, a deepening lee low will develop south/southeastward
from eastern Colorado into west Texas while high pressure builds
across the West. A southward trailing dryline coupled with stronger
flow aloft will enhance surface winds across portions of the
southern High Plains ahead of a southward moving cold front. When
coupled with dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions are expected over the
southern High Plains this afternoon.

...Southern High Plains...
As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate
height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a
trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern Colorado and New Mexico.
The developing lee surface cyclone will gradually sag
south/southeastward into west Texas into this afternoon.
Simultaneously, building high pressure across the West will couple
with the deepening low to enhance the surface pressure gradient
across the eastern New Mexico. Aided by modest mid-level winds, this
gradient is forecast to support sustained westerly winds of 15-20
mph during the afternoon, with downsloping and warm temperatures
yielding low humidity below 20%. When overlapped with areas of
abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of
elevated fire-weather conditions are probable this afternoon.

Some locally stronger winds (sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 25-30
mph) may develop with RH falling below 15% across portions of
eastern New Mexico for a few hours this afternoon. However, the
duration of sustained stronger winds is expected to be short as the
upper jet will gradually weaken as the mid-level trough ejects
farther to the east. Nevertheless, a few hours of near critical
conditions are possible across eastern New Mexico, with the greatest
potential expected to be along the northern edge of the Llano
Estacado and within the Canadian River Valley, where terrain may
favor local wind enhancements. A southward moving cold front will
bring an end to fire weather concerns through the overnight hours,
with increasing RH and an abrupt shift to northeasterly winds
accompanying the frontal passage.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...