WW 310 SEVERE TSTM IA MO NE 110710Z - 111500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Iowa
Northern Missouri
South-Central and Eastern Nebraska
* Effective this Thursday morning from 210 AM until 1000 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Mostly elevated strong to severe thunderstorms will
continue to develop overnight, initially across
south-central/eastern Nebraska, while eventually expanding into
western/central Iowa and far northern Missouri. This will include
the Interstate 80 corridor. Large hail is expected to be the most
common hazard, but surface-based storm potential could increase
mainly toward/after sunrise including what could be an increasing
damaging wind risk.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of
Kearney NE to 30 miles north of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
WW 309 SEVERE TSTM IL IN 110125Z - 110600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
825 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Illinois
West-Central into North-Central Indiana
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 825 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A squall line will progress eastward into the Watch with a
risk for damaging straight-line gusts being the primary hazard into
the early overnight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles north northeast
of Danville IL to 10 miles southeast of Champaign IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 303...WW 305...WW
306...WW 307...WW 308...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Smith
WW 0310 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0310 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0309 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 309
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE MMO TO
45 E MMO TO 15 WNW VPZ.
..LYONS..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IWX...IND...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 309
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC019-053-075-147-183-110340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAMPAIGN FORD IROQUOIS
PIATT VERMILION
INC007-017-049-073-111-131-171-181-110340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CASS FULTON
JASPER NEWTON PULASKI
WARREN WHITE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0308 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 308
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MLI
TO 30 SSE MMO.
..LYONS..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 308
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC017-039-057-095-107-113-125-129-143-169-179-203-110340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS DE WITT FULTON
KNOX LOGAN MCLEAN
MASON MENARD PEORIA
SCHUYLER TAZEWELL WOODFORD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0307 Status Updates
WW 0305 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 305
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE IRK
TO 35 N PIA.
..LYONS..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 305
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-067-071-109-149-187-110340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN HANCOCK
HENDERSON MCDONOUGH PIKE
WARREN
MOC045-103-111-127-137-173-199-205-110340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK KNOX LEWIS
MARION MONROE RALLS
SCOTLAND SHELBY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1082 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Areas affected...Portions of southern Nebraska into southwest
Iowa...northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 110651Z - 110845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A watch is likely for portions of southern Nebraska into
southwestern/south-central Iowa. Large to very-large hail and
isolated damaging winds are the main risks this morning.
DISCUSSION...As a shortwave trough digs into the central Rockies, a
surface low is deepening in western Kansas. Regional VAD data shows
a 40-50 kt low-level jet advecting moisture into eastern Kansas and
far southeastern Nebraska. Elevated storms have already formed in
southwestern/south-central Nebraska. These storms have shown some
potential for large hail on MRMS MESH. With the influx of moisture
above the surface, the expectation is for this activity or
additional storms along the quasi-stationary boundary to intensify
this morning. Large to very-large hail will likely be the primary
threat given the elevated nature of convection. That being said, the
boundary-layer will not be prohibitively stable. At least some risk
for damaging winds will exist as well. The strong warm advection
wind profile will also mean enlarged low-level hodographs. While
rather conditional, a tornado would be possible with supercell
structures and at least low 70s F dewpoints.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40499425 40039519 39889608 39939763 39959827 39969870
39969870 40199999 40200014 40500040 40840043 41300002
41659915 41829712 41819624 41809440 41589386 41019397
40499425
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AMD EASTERN IOWA
...NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including one or two
organizing clusters, will probably be accompanied by the potential
for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of strong
tornadoes in a corridor across the Midwest into Great Lakes region
Thursday through Thursday night.
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough will eject across the Upper Midwest into
the Great Lakes region today, with unseasonably strong 80-100 kt
southwesterly mid-level flow over spreading portions of the
upper-Midwest. An attendant surface low will deepen lift northward
out of the central Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes, with a
trailing cold front extending into the central/southern Plains and
warm front/modifying outflow lifting northward into the upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. Elsewhere, northwest flow is expected in the
mid levels across the Mid-Atlantic, with a series of weaker
disturbances moving through that region.
A severe MCS is expected to be ongoing at the start of the D1 period
across portions of southern Iowa into western Illinois, posing a
risk for strong to potential significant wind gusts. Additional
development is expected behind the morning MCS along the cold front
and in the vicinity of remnant outflow from the morning MCS.
Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging wind, and
tornadoes (a few strong) will be possible before upscale growth and
eventual evolution to a damaging wind threat into the evening.
...Mid/lower Missouri Valley into the Mid Mississippi Valley and
upper Great Lakes...
The low-level jet is expected to strengthen this morning across the
central Plains, with convection developing across southeastern
Nebraska early this morning. This initial development will likely be
supercellular and initially elevated, given strong deep layer shear
and returning moisture. Large hail will be the main concern before
cells cluster and beginning to organize along outflow. Hi-res
guidance trends have been for an organized MCS to develop and spread
eastward into portions of southern/central Iowa and northern
Illinois. Given the strengthening upper level flow and increasing
moisture, this will become surface based with the potential to
produce strong to significant wind gusts (some 70-75+ mph) in the
morning to mid-afternoon possibly extending into portions of
Michigan.
Much of the afternoon severe potential remains contingent on how the
morning MCS evolves. It is likely that a modifying outflow/warm
front will lift northward and settle into northern Illinois/southern
Wisconsin by the afternoon with the cold front further west. The
continued strong low-level jet should support strong warm air
advection and quick air mass recovery into northern
Illinois/southern Wisconsin. Additional thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the front and near the modifying boundary. Strongly
sheared profiles will support initial supercells capable of large
hail and tornadoes (a few of which may be strong to intense). There
remains some uncertainty in where the placement of the boundary will
be and how long discrete supercell storm modes can be maintained. It
is possible that a corridor of higher tornado potential will become
clear with need to include higher probabilities as details become
clearer in further outlook updates.
Eventual upscale growth is anticipated as the frontal forcing shifts
eastward. Bowing segments capable of strong to significant gusts
will likely emerge. Wind probabilities were increased (with addition
of a 45% area) with this outlook to account for the morning MCS and
for potential for a secondary round of severe to significant wind
gusts. It is possible that higher probabilities may be needed with
further outlook updates.
...Eastern Kansas into the Southern Plains...
Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the trailing
cold front into portions of the central/southern Plains. Deep layer
shear will remain mostly post-frontal, however, around 20-30 kts
effective bulk shear and moderate to strong instability will support
some supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging wind.
Storm motions and boundary parallel shear will likely lead to
clustering and messy modes through time.
...Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians...
Forcing for ascent from multiple short-wave disturbances across the
northeast and dew points in the 60s to 70s will support development
of widely scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon across
the Mid-Atlantic into the central Appalachians. Though shear will be
generally weak, moderate to strong instability will be in place will
support stronger updrafts capable of damaging wind. It is likely
that several clusters will emerge with potential for organizing
along cold pools and more focused corridors of damaging wind
potential. A 30% area was added with this outlook to cover this
potential.
..Thornton/Lyons.. 06/11/2026
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of mainly
damaging wind gusts are expected from western New England and the
Mid-Atlantic to eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Friday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear
possible from central New Mexico into far west Texas.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough and attending 50 kt mid-level jet streak
initially from the Upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley are forecast
to weaken while progressing through the OH Valley to along the St.
Lawrence Valley. At the surface, a cold front initially from
southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers at
12z Friday will advance east/southeast into New England and
Mid-Atlantic, where it will merge with a lee trough closer to the
coast.
...Western New England and the Mid-Atlantic into the Central
Appalachians...
While mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep, the
presence of a hot, moist boundary layer will largely contribute to
moderate to strong instability Friday afternoon ahead of the cold
front and in the vicinity of the lee trough. Thunderstorm
development is expected by early to mid afternoon across portions of
NY and PA within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the
mid-level wave. Additional storm development is likely through the
afternoon along the front and/or favored terrain in the central and
southern Appalachians.
The strongest vertical shear is expected to lag the surface warm
sector to the west, leading to a mix of multicells and line segments
with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Isolated
occurrences of marginally severe hail may also accompany the
strongest storms.
Individual thunderstorms are expected to gradually congeal into
outflow-driven clusters by late afternoon into early evening,
leading to a potentially more concentrated damaging-wind threat
across the Mid-Atlantic.
...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within a moist and
moderately unstable upslope regime Friday afternoon. Vertical shear
is forecast to be somewhat marginal for storm organization; however,
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of
some large-hail potential with the strongest updrafts.
...Northern High Plains into Minnesota and Wisconsin...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
within a marginally unstable environment, with some potential for
gusty winds and/or small hail. Vertical shear is expected to be
relatively strong, and if subsequent model runs indicate greater
instability, severe-weather probabilities may need to be added.
..Mead.. 06/11/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
A compact upper trough will exit the Great Basin region this
afternoon, traversing the High Plains and moving over the Upper
Midwest in the late evening. A surface low will develop
northeastward to the Great Lakes region and send a cold front
southward through the southern Plains. An amplifying upper ridge
over the eastern Pacific will promote warm and dry conditions across
the Interior West, though much lighter winds (compared to previous
days) will bring some relief to the fire environment. However, very
dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire concerns.
...Four Corners, southern Colorado Rockies and adjacent High
Plains...
As the upper trough and attendant surface low exit the region,
surface troughing over the Four Corners and Colorado Plateau will
support westerly winds up to 15 mph amid 10-15% RH. In the wake of a
cold front, veering north-easterly 15-20 mph winds (gusts up to 30
mph) and RH values of 10-20% will spread across portions of the
southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Elevated highlights have
been maintained to account for these conditions where dry fuels
exist. Latest forecast guidance also shows elevated wind/RH
spreading farther east over portions of the central High Plains.
However, recent rainfall and resultant sub-critical fuels preclude
an expansion of highlights. Briefly critical conditions are possible
across northern NM and portions of the CO Plains and gap-flow
regions, but the localized extent and limited duration of stronger
winds precludes critical highlights.
...Sacramento Valley...
Current northerly winds of 10-15 mph will persist with very poor
humidity recoveries (RH values of 20-30% overnight). As an upper
ridge over the eastern Pacific pushes the upper trough eastward,
northwesterly flow aloft will weaken and shift more westerly.
Northerly surface winds will gradually decrease throughout the
afternoon, however fire concerns remain as 10-15% RH lingers into
the evening. An extended burning period and dry fine fuels support
Elevated highlights within the Valley and adjacent foothills.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
As ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest, broad upper-level
troughing will extend across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
regions. A shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies
Friday afternoon with increasing mid-level westerly flow ushering
low RH and gusty winds through the Snake River Plain. Enhanced zonal
flow over the CO Rockies and south-central WY will promote gusty
winds and downslope drying amid warm daytime temperatures,
continuing a broader fire weather threat where fuels approach
critical thresholds.
...Upper Colorado River Basin, Central Rockies, and southern
Wyoming...
Strong upper-level winds will overspread the region on Friday
afternoon, encouraging continued dry and breezy conditions while
surface temperatures rise 10+ degrees above normal under the
influence of high pressure. Sustained westerly winds of up to 15 mph
and 10-15% RH are expected to overlap a drying fuelscape, thus
Elevated highlights have been introduced. Localized critical
conditions (less than 10% RH and 15-20 mph winds) are possible
across portions of northeastern UT and southern WY. However, sparse
fuels preclude critical highlights, though an upgrade may be
considered in future outlook cycles.
...Snake River Plain...
Ahead of an approaching cold front, sustained westerly winds of
10-20 mph will combine with 10-15% RH (locally lower) in the Snake
River Plain, supportive of Elevated highlights. Weeks of dry, windy
conditions and minimal precipitation has inflicted curing of fuels
across the region, enhancing fire weather concerns as ERCs approach
the 80th-90th percentile on Friday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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