Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
No substantial changes to the outlook.  The thunder area has been
trimmed southward in central FL to match movement of a cold front. 
To the west, isolated lightning flashes will be possible through
tonight within the midlevel moisture plume to the east of the weak
closed low just off the northern Baja coast.  The northern extent of
any lightning threat is a bit uncertain given marginal buoyancy
depth/magnitude, but will maintain previous outlook area.

..Thompson.. 10/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a positive-tilt upper
trough over the East and a closed low near the California/Baja
California border.  An extensive area of tranquil conditions
influenced by surface high pressure will prevail across much of the
contiguous U.S.  Widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms are possible
across the southern half of the FL Peninsula primarily through
sunset before much of the convective activity is relegated to the FL
Straits and offshore waters tonight.  Weak thunderstorms are
possible tonight in association with the upper low over southern AZ.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

...Synopsis...
The upper pattern will remain fairly stagnant across the eastern
half of the CONUS through early next week. Upper ridging will
continue over the central U.S. as a cut-off low meanders along the
Atlantic coast through Day 4/Tuesday. High pressure will build over
Southeast and prevail through the forecast period, promoting warm
daytime temperatures and dry conditions where fuels are growing
increasingly more receptive in the lower MS River Valley (forecast
ERCs at or above the 95th percentile by Day 5/Wednesday). Lighter
prevailing winds should keep broader fire weather concerns low,
however.

Farther west, an upper trough will impinge upon the Pacific
Northwest on Day 3/Monday, increasing southwesterly flow over the
Great Basin. Upper troughing will amplify as it digs into the
southwestern U.S., potentially ejecting into the Great Plains
late-week. This pattern should bring additional precipitation and
cooler temperatures to much of the Intermountain West, and
potentially provide some relief to a drying fuelscape across the
Coast Ranges and Sierra Nevada in California.

...Day 3/Monday - Northeastern California and Northwest Great
Basin...
A robust mid/upper trough is expected to bring enhanced
southwesterly flow back into the western U.S. by early next week.
Dry and breezy conditions in advance of the trough will promote an
increasing fire weather threat over northeastern CA, far
southeastern OR, and northwestern NV on Day 3/Monday where fuels
remain dry in the absence of recent precipitation. Thus, 40%
critical probabilities have been maintained across the region.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...