Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE DELMARVA...OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM
THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of severe winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph
and isolated occurrences of large hail remain possible across
Oklahoma, with more sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds from the Ozark Plateau into southern High Plains. Damaging
winds and some hail threat will continue from southern New England
into the Delmarva this evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail
and damaging winds remain possible over the central High Plains.

....Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...

Recent radar data indicate the evolution of a well-defined bow echo
over northeast OK with the crest of that feature moving toward Tulsa
at around 45 mph. Additional intense storms exhibiting some
supercell characteristics are being observed on the western flank of
the bow echo over north-central OK, with more widely scattered
strong to severe storm development from northwest OK into
east-central NM. The 00z OUN sounding is likely a good
representation of the inflow air mass to the ongoing storms,
featuring modestly steep lapse rates and with MLCAPE of around 2500
J/kg. The current KICT and KVNX VWPs are sampling stronger winds
above 5-6 km AGL than those observed by the 00Z OUN sounding,
suggesting that deep-layer shear is likely closer to 40-45 kt in the
vicinity of the ongoing storms.

Latest WoFS and HRRR data suggest the potential for a swath of
intense straight-line winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph over the
next 2-3 hours generally east of I-35 in OK in association with the
bow echo. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds
will remain possible from western OK into eastern NM.

For additional near-term information, see MCD 1507.  


...Southern New England to the Delmarva...

Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing as
of 00Z with several reports of wind damage and a 58 mph wind gust at
BWI Marshall Airport. The inflow air mass remains hot and moist this
evening with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, per latest mesoanalysis.
Regional VWPs and the 00Z OKX sounding indicate the strongest
mid-level flow and resultant vertical shear across the middle and
lower Hudson Valley into southern New England, which will support
embedded bowing and supercell structures capable of damaging winds
and large hail. Weaker vertical shear with southward extent into the
Delmarva is being offset by comparatively stronger instability,
which should allow for a continued damaging wind threat with storms
moving toward the coast.

For additional near-term details, see MCD 1505.


...Eastern Colorado into Central Nebraska...

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing this evening
from the vicinity of Broken Bow, NE into northeast CO amidst a steep
lapse rate and moderately unstable air mass, per 00Z LBF sounding.
In the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, storms should tend
to weaken over the next couple of hours. In the near time, hail up
to 1.5" and locally severe wind gusts will remain possible.

For additional near-term details, see MCD 1506.

..Mead.. 07/05/2026