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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

WW 484 SEVERE TSTM AZ 112145Z - 120500Z
WW 0484 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast and south central Arizona

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
  1100 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming on the higher terrain in southeast
Arizona will spread west-southwestward into the lower deserts
through late evening, with the potential for merging storm clusters.
 Severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph will be the main threat, though
the strongest storms may also produce isolated large hail near 1
inch diameter.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northwest of
Safford AZ to 25 miles south southwest of Sierra Vista AZ. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482...WW 483...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 6020.

...Thompson

  WW 0484 Status Updates
WW 0484 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 484

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE PHX
TO 35 NW TUS TO 80 SW TUS.

WW 484 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 120500Z.

..MEAD..07/12/26

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

AZC019-120500-

AZ 
.    ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

PIMA                 


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  WW 0483 Status Updates
WW 0483 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 483

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW MLC
TO 10 WNW PNC.

WW 483 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 120300Z.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596

..MEAD..07/12/26

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OKC037-097-105-111-113-117-131-143-145-147-120300-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CREEK                MAYES               NOWATA              
OKMULGEE             OSAGE               PAWNEE              
ROGERS               TULSA               WAGONER             
WASHINGTON           


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  WW 0482 Status Updates
WW 0482 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 482

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE FYV
TO 30 E RUE TO 35 NE LIT TO 25 NNW MSL.

..HALBERT..07/11/26

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC029-045-071-077-083-085-095-105-115-117-119-123-127-149-
120040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CONWAY               FAULKNER            JOHNSON             
LEE                  LOGAN               LONOKE              
MONROE               PERRY               POPE                
PRAIRIE              PULASKI             ST. FRANCIS         
SCOTT                YELL                


MSC003-009-033-093-117-137-139-141-143-120040-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALCORN               BENTON              DESOTO              
MARSHALL             PRENTISS            TATE                
TIPPAH               TISHOMINGO          TUNICA              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
  WW 0481 Status Updates
WW 0481 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 481

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV
TO 25 W CHS TO 45 SSE ILM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590

..HALBERT..07/11/26

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...CHS...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 




SCC019-112240-

SC 
.    SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHARLESTON           


AMZ256-340-360-112240-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM 

CHARLESTON HARBOR 

COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20
  No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 12 04:45:05 UTC 2026.SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...AND
IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening
from parts of Oklahoma east-southeastward into the northern Gulf
Coast states. Storms with severe gusts with some above 70 mph, will
also be possible in southern Arizona.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Northern Gulf Coast States...
A very moist airmass is in place from northern parts of the southern
Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast States, where surface
dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Along this
west-northwest-to-east-southeast corridor, the RAP shows an axis of
moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg and 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. Near the instability axis, the
WSR-88D VWPs at Oklahoma City, Fort Smith and Little Rock have 0-6
km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This suggests potential for
severe wind gusts with the more organized multicell line segments.
The threat may persist for a few more hours...see MCD 1594.

...Southern Arizona...
A sufficiently moist airmass is currently present across southern
Arizona, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. An axis of
moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP over southeast Arizona
where MLCAPE is estimated the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered
thunderstorms have developed near the instability axis, and these
storms will move westward across southern Arizona this evening.
Ahead of the storms, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 50
degrees in some locations. The very steep lapse rates will
contribute to a threat for severe wind gusts. A few gusts of 70 to
80 mph will be possible...see MCD 1595.

..Broyles.. 07/12/2026

 






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