WW 89 TORNADO IA IL MO WI 021845Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 89
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Iowa
Northwest Illinois
Northern Missouri
Southern Wisconsin
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon and evening across the watch area and track rapidly
northeastward. A few supercells capable of damaging winds and
tornadoes are possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Janesville
WI to 55 miles south southeast of Kirksville MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
...Hart
WW 0089 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0089 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 0333 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...much of central and eastern Upper
Michigan...adjacent northeastern Wisconsin and portions of northern
Lower Michigan
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 021734Z - 022130Z
SUMMARY...Light to moderate freezing rain is likely to continue to
develop and overspread the region through 5-7 PM EDT, with primary
accrual on elevated surfaces and vegetation.
DISCUSSION...As a still sub-1000 mb surface cyclone continues to
migrate east-northeastward into and through portions of
southern/eastern Iowa this afternoon, a fairly sharp warm frontal
zone to its east-northeast is forecast to continue to surge
northward across Wisconsin and Michigan. This is likely to occur
near the nose of a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb jet, with strong
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and frontogenetic forcing
maintaining light and developing embedded bands of moderate
precipitation.
While surface temperatures near or just below 30F are likely to also
be maintained at least into late afternoon or early evening, model
forecast soundings indicate notable warming above freezing in a
deepening layer above the surface, northward through much of central
and eastern Upper Michigan by 21-23Z. As this occurs, precipitation
rates may support at least occasional hourly freezing rain accrual
in excess of .10 inches, perhaps up to .25 inches.
..Kerr.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 45178681 44948770 45388892 46308828 46828705 46538410
45548285 44678265 44718363 45378519 45178681
MD 0332 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN/EASTERN IA...NORTHERN IL...EXTREME SOUTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 0332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...Parts of northern MO...southern/eastern
IA...northern IL...extreme southwest WI
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 021728Z - 022000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms with a tornado risk may develop this
afternoon. Eventual Tornado Watch issuance is likely, though timing
is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving
across the lower MO Valley early this afternoon. A 998 mb surface
low is located near the southwest IA/northwest MO border, with a
cold front trailing south/southwest into far southeast NE and
eastern KS. A warm front currently extends east-southeast of the low
into northern MO, then bends east-northeast from northeast MO into
central/northern IL. Thunderstorms have developed along the cold
front into northwest MO/far northeast KS, with gradually increasing
cumulus noted within the warm sector in advance of the cold front.
The surface low is forecast to move east-northeastward through the
afternoon, in conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough.
Clearing associated with the midlevel dry slot and strong low-level
flow (40-60 kt in the lowest 2 km per regional VWPs) will allow the
warm front to quickly move northward in advance of the surface low,
with a destabilizing warm sector expected to develop into parts of
southern/eastern IA and northern IL by mid/late afternoon.
MLCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg (locally greater where stronger
heating occurs) and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will provide
a conditionally favorable environment for severe storms within the
warm sector this afternoon. However, given the relatively modest
buoyancy, potential for storms to mature remains somewhat uncertain.
If any robust updrafts can be sustained, then strong low-level
shear/SRH will support tornado potential, especially near the track
of the surface low. Localized severe gusts and isolated hail will
also be possible, due to the strong low-level flow and
supercell-favorable wind profiles. Eventual Tornado Watch issuance
is likely this afternoon, though timing remains somewhat uncertain.
..Dean/Hart.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40709476 41489346 42259169 42599085 42648913 42048870
41468889 40858994 40189097 39599377 39819450 40709476
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.
...IA/IL/MO/WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over
northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating
around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low
currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this
afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and
instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear
and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of
fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes
(possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over
eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the
biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and
limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may
compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.
The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across
eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue
to show only widely scattered discrete development across this
corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and
favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a
risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI...
Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across
eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting
northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide
a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.
..Hart/Kerr.. 04/02/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.
...Northern MO/southern IA area...
A surface cyclone will progress northeastward from northeast KS to
southern IA by Friday evening, and then continue to southern WI by
early Saturday, in advance of a midlevel trough crossing NE/SD
during the day and IA/MN overnight. Lingering steep midlevel lapse
rates, boundary-layer dewpoints increasing into the 60s along and
south of a warm front, and surface heating in cloud breaks will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be
sufficient for supercells in the warm sector east-southeast of the
cyclone track, but there are concerns about a mixed/messy convective
mode evolution. In a conditional sense, any sustained supercells
will pose a threat for tornadoes and isolated very large hail (2+
inches in diameter). All hazards will be modulated by the actual
mode evolution, with more wind potential where a mode linear mode
dominates. Have opted to maintain the ENH risk area, but confidence
is low in the forecast details.
...Ozarks to northwest TX...
Farther southwest, convection is expected to become rather
widespread by Friday evening from the Ozarks across OK into north TX
along and just ahead of a surface cold front. Weaknesses in
low-midlevel flow are noted in forecast hodographs, which in
combination with expected upscale growth along the front both cast
doubt on the potential for sustained supercells. The more probable
hazards across this area will be occasional large hail and wind
damage Friday afternoon into early Friday night.
...Southwest TX...
Isolated storm development will be possible Friday afternoon/evening
along and east of the dryline and higher terrain, generally from the
Trans Pecos to the Rio Grande. Isolated large hail/severe gusts
will be possible in an environment sufficient for supercell
structures.
..Thompson.. 04/02/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
Parts of eastern CO and western KS experienced good overnight RH
recoveries, though will quickly dry once again out this afternoon
under peak heating and clear skies. In east-central NM, sustained
westerly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts 30+) are already being measured
this morning. As the surface low develops east of the Rockies,
combined surface lee troughing and gradient flow will support
southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and coincident RH drops
below 20 percent across much of the Elevated risk area. A confined
region of Critical fire weather is expected in southeastern CO into
the OK/TX Panhandles where RH will drop below 15 percent as
sustained westerly veering to southerly winds increase to 20-30 mph
(gusts 35+) atop very dry fuels. See the previous discussion for
more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough will impinge on the central Rockies
today, resulting in the development of a surface low across the
central Great Plains. Modest westerly, mid-level flow will support a
downslope regime across the southern/central Rockies. Coupled with
gradient flow, this will promote dry and windy conditions supportive
of wildfire spread across portions of the southern/central High
Plains.
...Central/southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, the combination of downslope and gradient
flow is expected to support 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds from northeastern New Mexico into the western
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, southeastern Colorado, and far
southwestern Kansas. With dry fuels across the region and RH values
forecast to fall to 10-15%, this is expected to support at least a
few hours of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Brief
periods of critical conditions are also possible farther
south/southwest in the lee of both the Guadalupe Mountains and the
Black Range in New Mexico; however, lower confidence in an extended
duration of overlap between wind/RH criteria as well as increasing
high cloud cover throughout the day precludes the addition of
Critical highlights at this time.
Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlapping minimum RH
values of 10-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across
adjacent areas of the southern/central High Plains. Portions of the
northern and eastern edges of the Elevated highlights were trimmed
from areas that saw more appreciable rainfall accumulations today.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...
...Afternoon Update...
Portions of the northern and eastern Elevated risk were trimmed from
areas that saw appreciable rainfall in the last 48 hours. A dry cold
front will push through the central/southern High Plains D2/Friday
morning and afternoon, transporting a breezy post-frontal airmass
southward. Behind the front, spotty 15-25 mph sustained
northwesterly winds may overlap with RH below 20 percent. Given
uncertainty in the intersection of strongest winds and low RH,
critical highlights have been withheld, though localized critical
fire weather conditions may occur in east-central CO and northwest
KS. Farther south, a few hours of strong westerly downslope winds of
20+ mph (gusts up to 40 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH are expected in
portions of central/eastern CO, which supports the continuation of
Critical fire weather highlights. Existing guidance ambivalence on
timing of the cold front arrival and RH reduction behind the front
enhances uncertainty in fire environment duration. However, due to
the risk of significant wildfire spread with the passage of the cold
front, these weather conditions should be closely monitored for both
new ignitions and any ongoing wildfires.
...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A locally strong Santa Ana wind event will peak D2/Friday afternoon
as north-northeasterly sustained winds of 20-30 mph (gusts up to 50
mph) and very low RH of 10-15 percent traverse southern NV, the
Low/High Desert of CA, and the wind-prone areas surrounding the Los
Angeles Metro. These conditions support locally elevated fire
weather concerns for areas with drier fine fuels.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level, shortwave trough will eject northeastward across
the central/northern Great Plains on D2/Friday, while an attendant
surface low develops northeastward into the Midwest. A cold front
associated with this surface low will progress southward across the
central and southern High Plains.
...Central/eastern New Mexico...
High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with the
previously mentioned surface low across the central Great Plains
will yield a tightened pressure gradient across much of the southern
Rockies, favoring a dry, downslope flow regime. This downslope flow
is forecast to be strongest in the lee of the Sandia Manzano
Mountains and is expected to support critical fire weather
conditions across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with
sustained westerly surface winds of 20-25 mph forecast to overlap
very low RH of around 10-15% and receptive fuels. Westerly winds of
15-20 mph and very low RH of 10-20% will promote elevated fire
weather concerns across adjacent areas of the southern High Plains.
The aforementioned cold front will pass through the region late in
the afternoon, bringing an abrupt shift to northerly winds with only
a marginal increase in RH expected. These weather conditions should
be monitored closely with any new ignitions or ongoing wildfires as
it could be problematic for fire spread.
...Central High Plains...
Sustained northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph amid very low RH
of 10-20% and receptive fuels are expected to support elevated to
locally critical fire weather concerns across portions of the
central High Plains Friday afternoon as downslope flow couples with
a dry, post-frontal air mass. Uncertainty regarding the duration of
overlap between sustained surface winds of 20+ mph and RH values
below 15% precludes the addition of Critical highlights at this
time, but this potential will continue to be monitored.
...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure across
the Intermountain West and low pressure in the vicinity of the Gulf
of California will favor sustained northerly/northeasterly winds of
20-30 mph amid very low RH of 10-15% (locally lower). While elevated
live fuel moisture is expected to preclude widespread fire weather
concerns, this wind/RH combination may support localized wildfire
spread potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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