Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible this
afternoon/evening across central/eastern New Mexico and Far West
Texas. An isolated damaging wind gust will also be possible across
Far West Texas.

... Southern and Eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas ...

A midlevel shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward
across the Four Corners region ahead of stronger height falls
approaching the Pacific Northwest. Although this trough should
gradually weaken, associated large-scale ascent will overspread the
northwestern periphery of a persistent low- to midlevel moist plume
extending across New Mexico. A slow-moving, northeast to
southwest-oriented baroclinic zone will provide a focus for
convective development, with differential heating and
terrain-induced vertical circulations likely contributing to
thunderstorm initiation during the afternoon. 

The thermodynamic environment across the region will be somewhat
complex. Steeper midlevel lapse rates will generally reside
northwest of the surface warm sector, closer to the ejecting
shortwave trough, while the richer low-level moisture will remain
displaced farther southeast. Additionally, repeated convective
episodes over the preceding several days have acted to temper lapse
rates across portions of the warm sector. This, combined with
potentially extensive cloud cover, should limit the magnitude and
spatial extent of destabilization.

That said, surface dewpoints in the middle 50Fs to near 60F should
support pockets of MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg where sufficient
insolation occurs. This degree of buoyancy may prove sufficient for
sustained deep convection. Given forecast wind fields across the
region indicative of deep-layer shear between 35-40 knots, the
CAPE-shear parameter space will support supercells capable of large
hail, generally in the 1-1.5 inch range. Additionally, forecast
hodographs suggest enough low-level curvature to support a tornado
or two with any sustained, discrete supercell. 

Despite the seemingly favorable ingredients within the large-scale
environment, the severe weather threat should remain somewhat
conditional. Questions remains surrounding both the degree and
spatial extent of instability, and subsequently the spatial overlap
of favorable thermodynamics and kinematic fields. This uncertainty
limits confidence in a more substantial severe threat.  That said, a
more focused corridor or two of higher severe potential could become
apparent later today as mesoscale details and convective evolution
become better resolved. 


... Oregon Coast ...

Isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Oregon coast early on
Sunday as the cold core of an approaching midlevel trough moves into
the area. Shallow convective cells may become sufficiently deep to
produce sporadic lightning. 


... Southeast Florida ...

Across southeast Florida, moist northeasterly flow along the western
periphery of a midlevel low over the Bahamas may support occasional
thunderstorms. Weak forecast vertical shear and warm mid-level
temperatures should limit any organized severe potential.

..Marsh/Thornton.. 10/25/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough initially over the southern/central High
Plains, will lift northeast to the Upper Midwest on Monday into
early Tuesday. Large-scale upper troughing will persist across the
western U.S. as a deepening cyclone and attendant shortwave trough
deepen and spread southeast over the Great Basin and Intermountain
West. Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer
moisture across the southern Plains vicinity ahead of a cold front
progressing south/southeast across the central Plains and Mid-MO
Valley. 

Modest destabilization is forecast from southwest TX,
southern/eastern NM, portions of the OK/TX Panhandles, and far
southwest KS. Isolated thunderstorms may develop toward late
afternoon through evening. Effective shear around 25-30 kt could
support transient storm organization, but southwest flow below 500
mb is forecast to remain fairly weak. Furthermore, warmer midlevel
temperatures may hinder stronger updrafts despite modest
instability. While the strongest storms could produce small hail,
overall severe potential appears limited, precluding Level
1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Leitman.. 10/25/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A series of upper troughs will migrate across the north-central U.S.
on Tuesday while upper ridging amplifies over the East. Southerly
low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer moisture (mainly
50s F dewpoints) from OK/KS into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, with
60s F dewpoints possible further south across TX. A surface front
initially over KS to central IA will lift northward through the
period in response to increasing low-level warm advection ahead of a
shortwave trough traversing the northern Plains. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible within the broader warm advection regime
across parts of the Plains from South TX into the Mid-MO Valley.
Modest instability and generally weak vertical shear will preclude
severe potential.

..Leitman.. 10/25/2026