Mesoscale Discussion 2234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northern WI into western Upper MI

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 261042Z - 261615Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will gradually spread eastward
through the morning. Blizzard conditions are possible.

DISCUSSION...Moderate to locally heavy snow is ongoing at 10 UTC
across parts of northern WI into far western Upper MI, to the
west/northwest of a 993 mb surface low near the northeast
WI/southern Upper MI border. This surface low and the accompanying
midlevel low/trough are both forecast to strengthen as they move
eastward today. As this occurs, continued strong ascent and
low/midlevel cooling will allow for moderate to locally heavy snow
to gradually spread eastward across parts of western Upper MI
through the morning. 

Snow rates of near/above 1 inch per hour will be possible, with some
potential enhancement from Lake Superior as cooler temperatures
aloft overspread the region. In addition, strong northerly low-level
flow (with 40-50 kt currently just above the surface from the KDLH
VWP) will also spread eastward with time. This strong flow combined
with increasing low-level cold advection will support strong gusts
to near/above 40 mph, resulting in reduced visibility within the
heavier snow bands and at least localized blizzard conditions.

..Dean.. 11/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON   46169190 46679176 47149067 46919019 47048934 47528838
            47448750 47158788 46908810 45878860 45948912 46169103
            46169190 

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the central U.S. as another
upper trough ejects into the Atlantic on Day 3 (Friday). As this
occurs, surface high pressure and an associated cool, statically
stable airmass will overspread the U.S. east of the MS River,
limiting thunderstorm potential. However, the approach of the
central U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the
southern Plains on Friday, promoting moisture return from the Gulf.
With the return of this moisture comes buoyancy (albeit marginal)
across portions of the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be
possible Friday night into early Saturday morning across much of
central TX into far southwestern OK as cooler temperatures
aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates overspreads the moist axis ahead
of the surface low.

...Central TX into far southwestern OK...
The latest guidance consensus depicts a 1008 mb surface low
developing somewhere over western OK by Friday evening as a
mid-level trough deepens over the central Rockies. Given a frontal
intrusion over the Gulf in days prior, moisture return will be scant
for Day 3/Friday. Nonetheless, the development of a strong (i.e.
40-50 kt) southerly low-level jet will aid in the northward
advancement of enough moisture to support scattered thunderstorm
development Friday night into early Saturday morning. Forecast
soundings depict a stable nocturnal boundary layer over central TX
to far southwestern OK, but with 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates
overspreading this stable, moist layer, yielding 500-1000 J/kg
MUCAPE, generally above 850 mb. Given the strong low-level jet, and
an approaching westerly 500 mb wind maximum rotating around the
amplifying trough, strong deep-layer shear is expected. Forecast
soundings show elongated hodographs, with approximately 50 kts of
effective bulk shear noted. Elevated multicells are expected, likely
accompanied by at least small hail. However, if trends in increasing
buoyancy are noted in future guidance, severe hail probabilities may
be needed in future outlooks.

..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of
this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level
troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the
CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the
northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting
stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm
development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will
result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return
and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains
into the Southeast on a few occasions.

First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains
to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the
moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an
appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over
the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is
plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the
surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage
ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being
introduced at this time). 

Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of
mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may
support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley
early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development,
track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the
guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for
now.