Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central U.S., in
south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High
Plains.

...Discussion...

Great Basin to southern Wyoming:  Notable upper trough is
approaching the northern CA coast late this evening. This feature is
forecast to advance into the eastern Great Basin as a 500mb speed
max translates across southern NV into southern UT. Cool midlevel
temperatures and steep lapse rates north of the jet favor weak
buoyancy along a corridor from northern NV into southern WY.
Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE could approach 500 J/kg by peak
heating. While deep-layer shear will be strong along the northern
fringe of the jet, current thinking is convection that evolves
across this region should not produce more than gusty winds, as PW
values are quite low.

Central U.S.: LLJ is forecast to increase across the southern Plains
into southern MO during the latter half of the period. Low-level
warm advection will be the primary forcing mechanism for potential
convective development during the overnight hours as the warm front
advances north into KS/MO. Forecast soundings suggest elevated
thunderstorms will not have enough instability to warrant a risk for
severe hail.

Southern Florida:  Easterly low-level flow will persist during the
day1 period which should favor convection concentrating near the
southern FL Gulf coast. However, forecast midlevel lapse rates are
quite poor and this diurnally enhanced activity should remain weak
and sub-severe.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/02/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail will be possible Tuesday and
Tuesday night from parts of western Oklahoma into south-central and
eastern Kansas.

...Southern and Central Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the
southern Rockies as flow remains southwesterly over the southern and
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across Kansas during the day and into western and northern Oklahoma
during the evening. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development near the front and across the post-frontal airmass
during the evening and overnight. NAM forecast soundings from
western Oklahoma into south-central Kansas around midnight have
effective shear of 40 to 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in
the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This suggests that isolated large hail will
be possible with rotating storms. The threat is expected to remain
marginal and could persist into the early morning hours on
Wednesday.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026