WW 679 TORNADO GA SC CW 101750Z - 110000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Georgia
Southern and Eastern South Carolina
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to intensify this
afternoon with a few storms likely becoming supercellular. A couple
of tornadoes are possible as these storms interact with a warm
frontal zone.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles north of Vidalia GA to 20
miles east of Charleston SC. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 18015.
...Smith
WW 0679 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0679 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 2356 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 679... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of far eastern Georgia into central and
southern South Carolina
Concerning...Tornado Watch 679...
Valid 102052Z - 102215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 679 continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated tornadoes will remain a concern through the rest
of the afternoon. A strong tornado still cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...At least 2 supercell structures embedded within the
primary confluence zone along the GA/SC have been tornadic, with
multiple tornadoes observed. Other storm structures in the
confluence band have attempted to organize into supercells south of
Screven County GA, but have failed to produce notable low-level
rotation so far based on KCLX radar data. Despite the seemingly
downward convective trends, the parent confluence band continues to
progress east-northeast toward an ambient airmass characterized by
mid to upper 70s temperatures and dewpoints, yielding over 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. Furthermore, the CAE and CLX VADs show large, curved
low-level hodographs and 300-500 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, with around 200
m2/s2 SRH in the 0-1 km layer. This combined buoyancy/low-level
shear profile is highly favorable for additional tornadoes under the
condition that a supercell structure can develop.
..Squitieri.. 10/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...
LAT...LON 31368142 31918207 32638230 33098218 33328169 33408114
33318009 33127971 32817967 32288039 31998078 31368142
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes are possible today over eastern Georgia into
the Carolinas.
...FL Big Bend/Georgia/Carolinas...
Midday surface mesoanalysis places the remnant circulation from
Isaias over central AL with a west-east oriented frontal zone
extending eastward from the low to the SC coast. A cold front arcs
southeast through western GA into the FL Panhandle. The warm sector
continues to destabilize as cloud cover thins and stronger heating
commences. A bubbling cumulus field will eventually transition to
scattered convective development this afternoon. The warm front
will gradually advance northward through central SC later today and
the coastal plain of NC. Enlarged hodographs will conditionally
support storm-scale rotation with stronger and more persistent
updrafts. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily coincident
with the diurnal heating cycle when buoyancy will be maximized.
Models show surface-based instability eventually inundating northern
portions of SC as the warm front advances north tonight. A Marginal
Risk for a tornado or two may continue tonight, although uncertainty
is high regarding this potential scenario.
...Southeast ID...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper trough pivoting slowly east
across the Pacific Northwest today. A belt of 40+ kt 500-mb
southwesterly flow will extend through the base of the trough and
areas downstream across the northern Great Basin into the northern
Rockies. As temperatures gradually warm and clouds erode through
the mid afternoon, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates and the development of weak buoyancy. Guidance
suggests scattered storms developing later this afternoon and moving
east across the Upper Snake Valley into western WY. An isolated
risk for marginally severe hail and severe gusts may accompany the
stronger storms.
...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Tropical Storm Rachel will undergo an extratropical transition
during the period as it moves northeast into the lower CO Valley by
early Sunday morning per the latest NHC forecast. An
intensification of the wind profile through a deep layer is evident
in forecast soundings across the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts
especially tonight. Seasonably rich boundary layer moisture
advecting north will contribute to at least weak destabilization and
the possibility for a few organized updrafts. Will maintain
low-severe probabilities this outlook update.
..Smith/Barnes.. 10/10/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for a few tornadoes will continue into this evening across
parts of eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of CIG1 tornado
area, focused along the border of eastern GA and southern SC. The
combination of a large/clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (330
m2/s2 0-1km SRH per CAE VWP) and a warm/moist PBL along an effective
warm front will conditionally support a strong tornado with any
established supercells this afternoon and evening. For additional
details on the near-term severe risk, see Tornado Watch #679.
Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, and only minor
changes were made.
..Weinman.. 10/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026/
...FL Big Bend/Georgia/Carolinas...
Midday surface mesoanalysis places the remnant circulation from
Isaias over central AL with a west-east oriented frontal zone
extending eastward from the low to the SC coast. A cold front arcs
southeast through western GA into the FL Panhandle. The warm sector
continues to destabilize as cloud cover thins and stronger heating
commences. A bubbling cumulus field will eventually transition to
scattered convective development this afternoon. The warm front
will gradually advance northward through central SC later today and
the coastal plain of NC. Enlarged hodographs will conditionally
support storm-scale rotation with stronger and more persistent
updrafts. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily coincident
with the diurnal heating cycle when buoyancy will be maximized.
Models show surface-based instability eventually inundating northern
portions of SC as the warm front advances north tonight. A Marginal
Risk for a tornado or two may continue tonight, although uncertainty
is high regarding this potential scenario.
...Southeast ID...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper trough pivoting slowly east
across the Pacific Northwest today. A belt of 40+ kt 500-mb
southwesterly flow will extend through the base of the trough and
areas downstream across the northern Great Basin into the northern
Rockies. As temperatures gradually warm and clouds erode through
the mid afternoon, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates and the development of weak buoyancy. Guidance
suggests scattered storms developing later this afternoon and moving
east across the Upper Snake Valley into western WY. An isolated
risk for marginally severe hail and severe gusts may accompany the
stronger storms.
...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Tropical Storm Rachel will undergo an extratropical transition
during the period as it moves northeast into the lower CO Valley by
early Sunday morning per the latest NHC forecast. An
intensification of the wind profile through a deep layer is evident
in forecast soundings across the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts
especially tonight. Seasonably rich boundary layer moisture
advecting north will contribute to at least weak destabilization and
the possibility for a few organized updrafts. Will maintain
low-severe probabilities this outlook update.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty
winds and a tornado or two will be possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Additional strong storms are expected across
parts of the Southwest and Great Basin.
...Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic...
Strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region as the remnants of
Isaias merge with upper troughing from the Ohio Valley to the
Southeast. The surface low is expected to be over the central
Appalachians Sunday morning, and will shift east/northeast across
the Mid-Atlantic through early Monday. A surface front will extend
south of the low and shift east across the region. Within the
pre-frontal warm sector, a very moist airmass will be in place.
Showers and cloudiness are expected across much of the area, and
lapse rates will remain poor, limiting widespread stronger
destabilization. However, a corridor of around 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
may develop from eastern/central NC into VA, with more limited
destabilization expected across the broader region.
Given the strong flow field associated with the
remnant/post-tropical system, transient supercell features could
occur in one or more pre-frontal bands of convection. Isolated
strong to severe gusts will be possible, along with a tornado or
two.
...Southwest/Great Basin vicinity...
Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Lower CO Valley
to the Great Basin/central Rockies as an upper trough slowly digs
and shifts east across the Pacific coast. The remnants of prior
tropical storm Rachel will partially be responsible for enhancement
of midlevel flow, and for modest boundary layer moisture across the
Lower CO Valley. This system is expected to gradually weaken as it
shifts northeast toward the Great Basin/central Rockies through the
period.
Pockets of modest destabilization amid favorable vertical shear will
support bands of convection. Some transient supercell features will
be possible. Given favorable shear and strong background flow, a few
strong gusts and a tornado or two will be possible. The northeast
extent of severe potential remains somewhat uncertain. Instability
will wane with northward extent, but strong deep-layer flow may
continue to support gusty winds with convective showers and isolated
thunderstorms into parts of UT and western CO.
..Leitman.. 10/10/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.
...Discussion...
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will pivot across
portions of the Southwest and Great Basin on Monday. An enhanced
midlevel jet streak associated with this system and lingering
boundary layer moisture will support showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity. Instability will remain weak, limiting severe
thunderstorm potential.
Further northeast, a weak midlevel shortwave impulse will migrate
northeast from the central High Plains toward the Mid/Upper MS
Valley, flattening the central U.S. upper ridge. A weak surface low
over the Upper MS Valley will shift east through the Great Lakes,
and a trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Upper
Midwest to the Mid-MO Valley. Boundary layer moisture will remain
modest, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest instability
atop midlevel capping across parts of central/southern WI. A few
elevated thunderstorms are possible within this modestly sheared and
weakly unstable environment ahead of the cold front. Small hail
could occur with the strongest storms. However, severe potential
appears too limited to include low probabilities at this time.
Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of
south/southeast TX within a low-level warm advection regime on the
western periphery of surface high pressure centered over the central
Gulf coast vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur as a cold
front develops south across southern FL and the Keys during the
afternoon.
..Leitman.. 10/10/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...Sierra Front into central/northern Nevada...
Accelerating southwesterly deep-layer flow is expected across the
Great Basin through today as a mid/upper trough deepens across the
Northwest. Latest model guidance consensus shows a marked delay in
the onset of cloud cover and deeper atmospheric moisture streaming
northeastward from Tropical Storm Rachel into southern NV. A
resulting corridor of sustained southwesterly 20-25 mph winds
accompanying a dry and well mixed boundary layer will contribute to
minimum daytime RH as low as 10% across the Basin and Range
landscape of central NV. This critical fire weather environment
should be attenuated somewhat by marginal fuels although the some
degree of wildfire risk will be present after multiple days of above
normal temperatures and dry conditions. Thus, extended Elevated fire
weather highlights into central NV to account for the dry and breezy
conditions expected this afternoon.
..Williams.. 10/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
An amplifying mid/upper trough will migrate slowly southward across
portions of the Northwest, with strong southwesterly flow aloft
extending from the Great Basin into the northern/central Plains. At
the surface, an initially stationary boundary/slow moving cold front
will extend from Northern California into the northern Great Plains.
Dry and breezy conditions preceding this boundary will promote
elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Great Basin
and central High Plains.
...Sierra Front into central/northern Nevada...
As the aforementioned mid/upper trough digs southward into portions
of the Great Basin, strong southwesterly flow aloft and related,
induced surface pressure falls across the Great Basin will support a
corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph
(locally up to 25 mph) from the Sierra Front into central/northern
Nevada. Higher gusts of up to 35-45 mph (strongest along the Sierra
Front) are also expected within this corridor between the
southeastward-progressing cold front to the northwest and an influx
of greater mid/upper level moisture and cloud cover associated with
the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel to the southeast. Coupled with
downslope drying and boundary layer mixing yielding afternoon RH
reductions to 10-15% and receptive fuels, an elevated fire weather
risk is expected this afternoon from the Sierra Front into
central/northern Nevada. Only minor adjustments were made with this
update based on the latest guidance.
...Eastern Wyoming into far southwestern South Dakota and portions
of the Nebraska Panhandle...
Lee surface troughing and modest southwesterly flow aloft in advance
of the deepening upper trough across the Northwest and an
approaching surface cold front will continue to allow for dry,
downslope flow across portions of the central High Plains. While
some uncertainty exists regarding the timing of increasing cloud
cover from the southwest and its impact on RH reductions, elevated
fire weather conditions are expected across much of eastern Wyoming
and adjacent areas of the central Plains where sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to
overlap RH of 15-20% and receptive fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Northern Sacramento Valley...
A deepening upper-level trough will settle over the northwestern
CONUS through D2/Sunday as a surface cold front pushes into northern
CA and the Great Basin. Northerly, post-frontal flow will funnel
into the northern Sacramento Valley and accelerate Sunday morning
through early Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds of 15-20 mph (25 mph
locally) with higher gusts combined with afternoon RH nearing 15%
are expected across the northern Sacramento Valley and bordering
foothills overlapping dry fuels. Only slight adjustments to the
existing elevated highlights were needed based on latest
model/ensemble guidance and trends.
..Williams.. 10/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the
western U.S. on D2/Sunday, aiding in the northward transport of
deeper tropical moisture into southern California and much of the
Intermountain West. At the surface, a frontal system will extend
from southern California northeastward into the Great Basin and then
eastward into the central Plains. In the wake of this front, mainly
dry conditions will continue across the Columbia Basin and northern
California, with dry and breezy northerly flow expected to bring an
elevated fire weather threat to the northern Sacramento Valley
Sunday afternoon.
...Northern Sacramento Valley...
Following Saturday's cold frontal passage, strengthening northerly
winds and dry conditions are expected to support an increasing fire
weather threat for portions of the northern Sacramento Valley and
adjacent foothills. Sustained northerly winds of 15-25 mph (with
locally higher gusts) are forecast to overlap minimum RH values
around 20% Sunday afternoon, with the gusty winds the primary driver
of fire weather concerns where fuels are receptive.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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