Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible in parts of Arizona today.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
within the extensive southwesterly flow aloft that covers much of
the western CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is moving from central
Mexico into TX and the westernmost shortwave is just off the
southern CA coast. The easternmost shortwave is forecast to progress
northeastward across TX today, contributing to showers and
thunderstorms from the TX Hill Country to the TX Gulf Coast. Moist
southerly flow is anticipated throughout the period across the
central and southern Plains, including the wake of the lead
shortwave when warm-air advection associated with an strengthening
low-level jet will support increasing thunderstorm coverage from the
central Plains into the Mid MO Valley this evening. Limited buoyancy
should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. 

...Arizona...
Shortwave trough currently just off the southern CA coast is
forecast to continue northeastward today, likely moving through the
Lower CO Valley and into AZ this afternoon and evening. Modest
low-level moisture advection will precede this shortwave, bringing
the low to mid 60s dewpoints currently along the western AZ/Mexico
border northward into more of southern AZ. The highest afternoon
dewpoints will likely be in the mid 60s from southwest into central
AZ. This anomalously high low-level moisture will help support
moderate afternoon buoyancy, despite widespread cloud cover and poor
lapse rates. 

The strongest vertical shear is anticipated from now through the
early afternoon, resulting in some temporal displacement between the
stronger shear and greater buoyancy. Even so, there appears to be
enough overlap to support some stronger storms this afternoon from
southwest into south-central AZ. Primary threat is damaging gusts,
although a few instances of hail are possible as well.

..Mosier/Moore.. 10/30/2026