Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today over
parts of the Carolinas, eastern Georgia, and southern Arizona.
Isolated hail and a few severe gusts may occur in the western Great
Lakes. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from parts of the
southern Plains into the Southeast.

...Carolinas/Georgia...
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Southeast into
the Carolinas, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As
surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over
most of the region by midday. A cold front will advance southward
across southern North Carolina, reaching northern South Carolina in
the afternoon. Low-level convergence will become maximized along and
ahead of the front, which will support scattered thunderstorm
development this afternoon. These storms will move eastward toward
the Atlantic Coast. Additional storms will form in the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians, with the storms moving
eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings near and
to the south of the front late this afternoon have MLCAPE maximizing
in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5
C/km and 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This environment will be
favorable for multicell line segments capable of severe wind gusts.

...Southern Arizona...
A sufficiently moist airmass will be in place today over southern
Arizona, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. By
afternoon, an axis of maximized low-level convergence and
instability will develop in southeast Arizona. Scattered
thunderstorms will form near this axis and move westward across
southern Arizona from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large
temperature-dewpoint spreads and very steep low-level lapse rates
will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts.

...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A cold front located from southern Oklahoma eastward into
north-central Mississippi will advance slowly southward across the
region today. Ahead of the boundary, surface dewpoints from the mid
60s to the mid 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization
over much of the warm sector. Scattered thunderstorm will form along
and to the south of the front during the afternoon. The instability
along with steep low-level lapse rates will be sufficient for
isolated strong to severe gusts with any line segment that can
become organized.

...Western Great Lakes...
Mid-level northerly flow will be in place today over the western
Great Lakes. At the surface, a southwest-to-northeast corridor of
low-level moisture will be located from eastern Minnesota into
western Upper Michigan. Moderate to strong instability will develop
near the moist axis by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will
remain limited, isolated convection could initiate near the moist
axis if low-level convergence becomes strong enough. In that case, a
cell or two could form and move southward into the stronger
instability late this afternoon. The instability combined with
moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could
support an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts
possible.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/12/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FLORIDA
INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina
into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday.

... Synopsis ...

A large mid-level ridge, centered over the upper-Mississippi Valley,
will encompass much of the US on Monday. To the south of the ridge
center, broad northeast-to-easterly mid-level flow will prevail. A
weak mid-level trough over the Tennessee Valley will continue to
slowly weaken as the mid-level ridge expands eastward to its north.
On the southwest side of the ridge, easterly-to-southeasterly
mid-level flow will persist across the Southwest.

At the surface, a high-pressure area will be centered over the Corn
Belt, with a weak low-pressure area continuing to meander over the
Southeast along a stalled boundary across Georgia into South
Carolina.


... North Florida into South Carolina ...

To the south of the previously mentioned stalled boundary, surface
dewpoints should be in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Scattered
thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon with peak heating.
Guidance is trending cooler with afternoon temperatures as compared
to previous days (mid-80Fs versus mid-90Fs), which should preclude
widespread low-level lapse rates typically needed for strong,
damaging thunderstorm outflows. However, given the presence of a
weak surface low and a stalled outflow boundary that may focus
thunderstorm development, the 5% wind probabilities have been
maintained, although the resulting coverage of wind reports should
be less than in preceding days. 


... Arizona ...

A conditional severe threat exists across southern Arizona on
Monday. The background environment of seasonably moist low levels
and modest easterly mid-level flow would seem to support some
potential for one or more westward moving thunderstorm clusters.
These clusters would be capable of strong thunderstorm outflow winds
given very steep low-level lapse rates. However, significant
convection is expected across the region on Sunday, which may scour
out the better low-level moisture or leave behind sufficient
convective cloud cover that modulates diurnal heating. Given this
uncertainty, and the marginal nature of the assessed severe threat 
at this time, will hold off on adding unconditional severe wind
probabilities. 


... Western Montana ...

Thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the higher
terrain of western Montana, particularly southwestern areas. Modest
surface dewpoints and expected cloud cover should limit buoyancy and
overall updraft intensity. However, should a stronger storm develop,
strong mid-level flow would support thunderstorms capable of strong,
gusty outflows.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and
evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
western and central Montana.

... Synopsis ...

An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will
begin to retrograde on Tuesday as a strong short-wave trough digs
southeast out of Canada toward New England. As the ridge builds
west, the mid-level height gradient will increase across the
northwestern US as a seasonably strong mid-level trough/closed low
remains anchored off the Washington/Oregon coasts. 

... New England ...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of Quebec on
Tuesday afternoon as a strong mid-level trough and attendant surface
cold front move across the region. Ahead of this cold front,
southwesterly surface winds will transport in rich boundary layer
moisture, which will combine with diurnal heating to support MUCAPE
in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Strong vertical shear (on the order of
50-60 knots) will overspread the region during the afternoon and
evening, which will support one or more clusters of severe
thunderstorms moving from Quebec into and across portions of New
England during the late afternoon, evening, and early morning hours.
All severe hazards will be possible with any sustained thunderstorm.

One mitigating factor for a more significant severe weather event
will be the timing of the storms. At this time, it appears
thunderstorms will be moving across New England well after peak
heating and into the overnight. Should the timing of storms be
earlier than currently expected, greater coverage of thunderstorms
may result and higher severe probabilities would be warranted. 


... Portions of Western and Central Montana ...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher
terrain of southwest Montana during the afternoon on Tuesday.
Surface moisture will be better (surface dewpoints in the 50Fs) than
in previous days, which should support greater afternoon buoyancy
and in turn stronger thunderstorm updrafts. Strong
south-southwesterly mid-level flow in between the trough to the west
and ridge to the east will support thunderstorm organization and
some severe potential as some of the storms move northeast off the
higher terrain.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026