WW 266 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA 012210Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
510 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Alabama
Florida Panhandle
Southwest Georgia
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph likely
SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to progress
south-southeastward with wind damage remaining a possibility at
least through sunset, if not beyond.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of
Evergreen AL to 70 miles east of Dothan AL. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 262...WW
263...WW 264...WW 265...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
31025.
...Guyer
WW 265 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 012140Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Kansas
Southwest Nebraska
* Effective this Monday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across
western Kansas and eventually southwest Nebraska through early
evening, potentially including multiple rounds via an organized
storm complex later this evening. Large hail and severe winds are
expected to be the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Mccook NE to 25 miles east of Liberal KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 262...WW
263...WW 264...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26020.
...Guyer
WW 264 SEVERE TSTM GA 012030Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
430 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West-Central Georgia
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms is
moving southeastward across central Alabama. This line is expected
to continue southeastward through west-central Georgia this
afternoon and evening, with a continued risk for damaging wind
gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Atlanta GA to 50 miles south southwest of Macon GA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 262...WW 263...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
31030.
...Mosier
WW 263 SEVERE TSTM AR MO 011915Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Arkansas
Far Southern Missouri
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
increase this afternoon into this evening from southern Missouri
into central Arkansas. A very warm, moist, and unstable airmass is
in place, supporting the potential for robust updrafts capable of
damaging gusts and isolated hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of
Fayetteville AR to 95 miles southeast of Batesville AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 262...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Mosier
WW 262 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 011850Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Colorado
Nebraska Panhandle
Southeast Wyoming
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until
800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is ongoing across the higher
terrain of the central Rockies, with movement downstream into the
foothill expected shortly. Further eastward development into more of
the central High Plains is anticipated over the next several hours.
Environmental conditions favor supercells capable of large hail and
damaging gusts. Some isolated very large hail and significant severe
gusts are also possible. A low-probability tornado risk exists
across northeast Colorado as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast
of Torrington WY to 50 miles south of Limon CO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...Mosier
WW 261 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 011625Z - 020000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Alabama
Northern Mississippi
Southwestern Tennessee
* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1125 AM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A very warm, moist, and unstable airmass is in place from
the Mid-South into the Southeast States. Thunderstorm development is
ongoing along an outflow boundary in southwest/southern Middle TN,
with additional development ahead of this outflow possible as well.
Very strong buoyancy will support robust updraft/downdraft cycles
capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail throughout the afternoon
and into the evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Oxford MS to 30 miles northeast of Anniston AL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30030.
...Mosier
WW 0266 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0266 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0265 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0264 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 264
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LGC TO
25 N LGC TO 20 NW ATL.
..SQUITIERI..06/01/26
ATTN...WFO...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 264
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC021-053-077-079-081-093-113-145-153-171-193-197-199-207-215-
225-231-235-249-255-259-261-263-269-285-293-307-315-012240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB CHATTAHOOCHEE COWETA
CRAWFORD CRISP DOOLY
FAYETTE HARRIS HOUSTON
LAMAR MACON MARION
MERIWETHER MONROE MUSCOGEE
PEACH PIKE PULASKI
SCHLEY SPALDING STEWART
SUMTER TALBOT TAYLOR
TROUP UPSON WEBSTER
WILCOX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0263 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 263
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE GMJ
TO 30 NNW FLP.
..SQUITIERI..06/01/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 263
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-005-007-009-015-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-051-
055-063-065-067-069-071-075-077-083-085-087-089-095-101-105-107-
111-115-117-119-121-123-125-129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-
012240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BENTON
BOONE CARROLL CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD
CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LAWRENCE LEE LOGAN
LONOKE MADISON MARION
MONROE NEWTON PERRY
PHILLIPS POINSETT POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SALINE SEARCY
SEBASTIAN SHARP STONE
VAN BUREN WASHINGTON WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
WW 0262 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 262
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DEN TO
10 SE DEN TO 15 SSW CYS TO 45 WSW TOR TO 25 WSW CDR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940
..SQUITIERI..06/01/26
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 262
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-009-017-035-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-095-099-115-
119-121-123-125-012340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA
CHEYENNE DOUGLAS ELBERT
EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON
LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN
PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK
TELLER WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-012340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES DEUEL GARDEN
KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MEM TO
25 NNE TUP TO 20 SE CBM.
..SQUITIERI..06/01/26
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-011-017-047-051-063-065-081-085-087-091-101-105-109-
113-119-123-012240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK
CHAMBERS DALLAS ELMORE
GREENE HALE LEE
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
RUSSELL SUMTER TALLAPOOSA
MSC009-013-017-025-027-033-043-057-071-081-087-093-095-103-105-
107-115-119-135-137-139-143-145-155-161-012240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CALHOUN CHICKASAW
CLAY COAHOMA DESOTO
GRENADA ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE LOWNDES MARSHALL
MONROE NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
MD 0944 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Areas affected...portions of western Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012230Z - 020000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
Although marginally severe hail is possible, strong, gusty
thunderstorm winds are the main threat. A watch is currently not
expected for this activity.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations indicate the presence of a diffuse
northwest-to-southeast oriented moisture gradient across northwest
Oklahoma and southwest Kansas. To the east of this boundary, surface
dewpoints in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs exist, with dewpoints to the
west of the boundary in the low-50Fs.
Current visible satellite imagery shows this diffuse boundary to be
a favorable zone for cumulus development this afternoon, likely
owing to slightly augmented vertical boundary-layer circulations
owing to the presence of the moisture/density gradient. As
large-scale ascent increases from the west this afternoon coincident
with peak diurnal mixing (vertical boundary-layer circulations at
their greatest), surface-based parcels may be able to reach their
LFCs and isolated thunderstorms will be possible.
The overall thermodynamic environment is quite unstable with MLCAPE
in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg on the east side of the boundary.
Kinematically, speaking, however, deep-layer shear remains rather
weak (generally at or below 30 knots). Thus, any thunderstorm
development this afternoon should be pulsey/cellular in nature and
not prone to longevity. Marginally severe hail is possible with the
strongest updraft cores, but the main threat should be strong gusty
thunderstorm outflows with any collapsing updraft core.
A watch is currently not expected for this activity. A more
appreciable severe threat may evolve later this evening into the
overnight hours as a mesoscale convective system moves out of the
High Plains and approaches the region.
..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 35809949 36719995 37069991 37289950 37039875 36369810
35799756 35389744 35069754 34939791 35019846 35809949
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0943 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...263... FOR NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0943
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Areas affected...North central Arkansas into northwest Mississippi
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...263...
Valid 012216Z - 020015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261, 263
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase across central
to eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi in the next couple of
hours. While hail remains a short-term concern, the potential for
damaging wind will likely increase in the coming hours.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a collection of pulse
convection and loosely organized convective bands across
north-central AR into far northwest MS. This activity continues to
occasionally intensify to near severe limits based on MRMS
vertically integrated ice and MESH data, but the weakly sheared
environment is largely limiting the longevity of individual cells.
Nonetheless, a more persistent cluster is emerging across
north-central AR with discernible southward propagation that
suggests a cold pool is becoming well established. Given very high
buoyancy immediately downstream it appears likely that this cluster
will persist and may increase in coverage as new convection develops
near or along the cold pool. Additionally, new cells are emerging
along a residual outflow boundary draped east/southeastward into
northwest MS with upscale growth likely as thunderstorm coverage
increases and cold pool amalgamation occurs. The expectation over
the next few hours is that one or more prominent clusters (and/or a
loosely organized MCS) will emerge out of north-central to
east-central AR with an increasing potential for damaging winds.
..Moore.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 33678952 33618984 33809010 34079065 34279107 34469156
34869257 35179314 35399352 35599370 35929380 36219359
36419329 36489291 36429204 36169123 35158977 34788938
34238926 33868928 33678952
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0942 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE US-MEXICO BORDER
Mesoscale Discussion 0942
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle southward toward
the US-Mexico Border
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012154Z - 020000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely continue to develop along the
dryline from western Oklahoma panhandle south toward Mexico. The
main severe threat should be strong, gusty thunderstorm outflows.
DISCUSSION...A surface dryline exists across far western portions of
the Oklahoma Panhandle south to the US-Mexico border. To the east of
the dryline surface dewpoints are generally in the 50F range,
although some observations have recently mixed into the upper 40Fs,
with dewpoints to the west in the 30Fs to low 40Fs range.
Surface convergence along this boundary is not overly strong with
winds on either side of the boundary generally having a southerly
component to them. That said, loops of recent water vapor imagery
shows a belt of large-scale ascent moving east out of the
Southwest/southern Rockies and overspreading the dryline. In turn,
latest visible imagery shows the cumulus field along the dryline
becoming a bit more agitated, with increased vertical development.
in response to the large-scale ascent, with increasing mid-level
echoes now depicted on radar across portions of the northwest Texas
Panhandle and far western Oklahoma panhandle. Additional
thunderstorms have developed farther east across the Texas panhandle
in an area of better surface moisture, likely the result of strong
boundary layer circulations and local terrain effects owing to the
caprock. Lastly, marginally severe thunderstorms have also developed
in far southwest Texas.
The thermodynamic environment all along the dryline is sufficient
for thunderstorms, with MUCAPE ranging from around 1000 J/kg along
the dryline to early 3000 J/kg farther east. Kinematically speaking,
however, deep-layer shear is rather anemic, with generally less than
20-25 knots analyzed. Given the degree of instability, continued
vertical mixing associated with deepening boundary layer
circulations will likely support additional thunderstorm development
along the dryline. The lack of deep-layer shear should limit the
overall organization of the storms, favoring pulse-type cellular
convection, but a few multi-cell clusters may also evolve. Given the
deepening boundary layer, this cells will likely be high-based, with
increasingly dry sub-cloud layers (especially across western
portions of the highlighted area) with a tendency to produce strong,
cold outflows capable of isolated damage.
The isolated nature of the severe threat should preclude the need
for a watch, but the region will be monitored for any areas where
thunderstorm organization might occur.
..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 29420425 34340367 36480312 36940296 36950181 36969996
36659972 36149944 35389955 34839970 34350024 30980217
29660262 29130278 28940305 28900317 29150393 29420425
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0941 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...264... FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0941
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Areas affected...Southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and
adjacent portions of southwest Georgia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...264...
Valid 012146Z - 012345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261, 264
continues.
SUMMARY...A loosely organized MCS will likely continue propagating
southward across southern Alabama and into the Florida Panhandle
through the evening hours. Downstream watch issuance will be
considered.
DISCUSSION...Latest velocity imagery out of central AL continues to
show pockets of winds approaching 50 knots along the leading edge of
the surging cold pool/outflow boundary of a southward-propagating
MCS. Similarly, the KBMX VWP recently sampled 40-50 knot flow within
the 1-2 km layer with the passage of the MCS. While severe winds
likely reside just above the surface, recent surface observations
continue to mostly show gusts between 30-45 mph, which have been
sufficient for wind damage based on recent storm reports.
The surging nature of the outflow suggests some weakening may be
observed in the next few hours, however, a pocket of MLCAPE of
around 2500 J/kg is noted downstream of the MCS where pulse
convection is currently developing. This hints that new convective
development along the outflow is possible and could maintain some
degree of MCS intensity into the evening hours. Downstream watch
issuance is being considered as the MCS approaches the southern edge
of WW 261 and 264.
..Moore.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30648763 30858810 31268835 31878840 32378821 32708813
32618761 32638707 32748651 32878601 32998564 33048535
32958513 30968390 30718413 30548462 30518522 30548604
30618681 30648763
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0939 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0939
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Areas affected...Much of western Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 012041Z - 012315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe
potential into this evening. Primary concerns will be severe wind
gusts and large hail. Timing of a potential watch remains uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus has been gradually attempting to
deepen within a zone of confluent/upslope low-level flow in western
KS, though weak/negligible large-scale forcing for ascent and
lingering inhibition have limited deeper development thus far.
However, continued attempts may be eroding the cap and could support
isolated storm development over the next couple hours.
The GLD VWP is sampling deep/enhanced southeasterly flow veering to
southwesterly midlevel winds (around 40 kt of effective shear).
While development within the confluence zone still remains
uncertain, this wind profile coupled with steep deep-layer lapse
rates and a warm/moist PBL will conditionally support organized
storms to include supercells. Any storms that can develop/mature
will pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts, though a brief
tornado cannot be entirely ruled out given the presence of enhanced
streamwise vorticity for any established storms.
Additional thunderstorms evolving out of southeast CO may eventually
move into this environment as well, which would also be capable of
severe wind gusts and hail. While the overall convective scenario
remains a bit uncertain, the area is being monitored for a possible
watch issuance.
..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 39690163 39840097 39800007 39579951 39149916 38409921
37829992 37500090 37490165 37660195 38210210 38720212
39320202 39690163
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts are also
likely from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A
relatively more organized cold-pool-driven MCS is continuing to
track south-southeastward across eastern MS into central AL, with a
history of damaging gusts. This MCS should continue to traverse a
diffuse buoyancy axis and produce additional damaging gusts through
the afternoon, though weakening should eventually occur as the MCS
propagates away from the relatively stronger deep-layer shear. Over
the next few hours, strong to severe thunderstorms currently over
southern MO should congeal into another cold-pool-driven MCS and
drift southward into strong buoyancy, characterized by over 4000
J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is rather poor across the mid-MS
Valley. However, the strong to locally extreme buoyancy should
compensate to support multiple damaging gusts. The next cold-pool
driven MCS in the series should develop from ongoing severe hail
producing supercells across the central High Plains, which are
poised to grow upscale later this evening. Once an MCS develops, a
swath of severe gusts is likely, especially across western into
central KS.
..Squitieri.. 06/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026/
...Mid-South into the Southeast...
An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with
preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN.
Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although
updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General
expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue
for the next hour or two, before building instability along the
western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles
strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given
limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely
remain transient.
Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the
afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps
western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong
buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will
support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm
organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular
mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles
should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable
of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail.
The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development
farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the
evening before weakening.
...High Plains...
Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist
easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern
periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is
anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is
expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s.
Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around
1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is
anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by
mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells
capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective
cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads
to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts
over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS
is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening
as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater
low-level moisture.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along
the dryline in TX.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER PARTS
OF THE DAKOTAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
Wednesday in parts of the northern Plains, with widely scattered
strong wind gusts or marginal hail over parts of the central High
Plains.
...Northern Plains...
Slight cooling aloft will occur over ND into northern MN as a
shortwave trough slowly moves east across the area. Midlevel winds
of 35-45 kt are forecast, resulting in deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt
as southerly winds of 30 kt develop at 850 mb. A cold front will
move into eastern ND and central SD during the afternoon, providing
a focus for storm development. MUCAPE may average around 1500 J/kg
with low 60s F dewpoints, though models disagree on this. Some
forecast soundings appear favorable for a supercells with good mid
to high level flow and increasing evening SRH, especially across the
Red River Valley and into northwest MN.
...Central Plains and into NM...
A moist and unstable air mass will remain over much of the central
and southern Plains as well as into NM. Shear will be weak, but the
air mass will be uncapped over this entire area as temperatures
aloft will remain relatively cool. As such, scattered areas of
thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon along the length of
the High Plains, with localized wind or hail. Moisture will push
westward across NM as well, again with isolated strong gusts or
small hail.
..Jewell.. 06/01/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder risk
area based on recent guidance. Increasing mid-level moisture
alongside afternoon heating and resultant instability will promote
isolated showers and thunderstorms, maintaining a threat of some
lightning ignitions across western NM, far southwestern CO, and
east-central AZ. Owing to antecedent weather conditions aiding in
curing the landscape, fuels are expected to be receptive and
conducive to fire spread as storms produce localized erratic wind
gusts with little accumulating precipitation (<0.25").
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns for Tuesday will primarily be associated with
dry lightning potential across parts of far eastern Arizona and
western New Mexico. A weak upper wave is evident off the Baja CA
coast that will migrate east towards the Southwest over the next 24
hours. Weak pressure falls across the interior West will promote
eastward low-level moisture transport into the southern Rockies. The
western periphery of the moist plume should spread into eastern AZ
by Tuesday afternoon with PWAT values on the order of 0.4 to 0.5
inch. While modest, this will provide sufficient buoyancy to support
isolated thunderstorms as weak ascent overspreads the region ahead
of the approaching wave. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 15-20
knot storm motions will help limit rainfall amounts and support the
potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with receptive
fine fuels after several days of warm and dry conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper low will begin to traverse southern Canada on Day
3/Wednesday while surface high pressure and associated dry
conditions amid light winds persist over the Great Lakes.
Concurrently, an upper low moves offshore the Eastern Seaboard,
allowing the ridge of high pressure to slide over the eastern CONUS.
Recent appreciable precipitation across the High Plains through the
Southeast will keep broader fire weather concerns low through the
week. A robust upper trough is expected to enter the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Friday, allowing fire weather concerns to emerge
across the Intermountain West.
...Portions of the Southwest and Great Basin...
...Day 3/Wednesday...
Deeper atmospheric moisture and sufficient buoyancy will approach
portions of the Southwest on Day 3/Wednesday, promoting widespread
thunderstorms east of the Rio Grande Valley. Isolated convection
west of the Continental Divide and lower PWATs may allow some threat
of lightning ignitions to evolve. Slower storm motions prevent the
introduction of Dry Thunderstorm probabilities at this time, though
may be considered in future outlooks.
...Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday...
Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow ahead of an approaching
upper-level trough should encourage a dry and breezy environment to
emerge across the Great Basin and Southwest on Day 6/Saturday. 40%
Critical probabilities have been introduced where extended guidance
and ensemble probabilities denote a broad area of low RH and strong
winds. As a result of the overall pattern, fire weather concerns may
continue into Day 7/Sunday, however ambiguity in the progression of
the upper trough precludes the introduction of probabilities.
...Great Lakes...
...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
The upper ridge will begin to flatten on Day 3/Wednesday as an upper
low traverses southern Canada. Warm daytime temperatures and RH
declining to less than 35% on Day 3/Wednesday and Day 4/Thursday
could allow fire weather concerns to emerge where favorable fuels
exist. However, misaligned breezy winds/critical RH limit broader
fire concerns.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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