Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado
threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of
the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be
possible from parts of the Ozarks into the central Appalachians.

...Southern Plains...
At mid-levels, southwesterly flow will be in place across much of
the south-central U.S. today, as a large-scale trough and low move
through the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southward this morning across northern Oklahoma and the
Texas Panhandle. Numerous thunderstorms will be likely this morning
near the front. The effective boundary is expected to be further
south, which will shift the effective destabilization further south
as well. By early afternoon, an axis of moderate instability is
forecast to be located from west Texas northeastward into
southwestern and south-central Oklahoma, where MLCAPE will likely
range from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Areas that destabilize significantly
will have potential for severe storms.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by mid to late
afternoon have supercell wind profiles, with gradually veering winds
with height in the low-levels and about 50 knots of southwesterly
flow in the mid-levels. This will support supercell development with
storms that form in the stronger instability and remain discrete.
Supercells will be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and perhaps a
tornado or two. During the evening, a transition to linear mode is
expected, but a threat for embedded supercells will continue. The
more intense line segments could produce severe wind gusts,
potentially above 70 mph.

...Ozarks/Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the eastern half
of the nation today. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward into the Ozarks and Ohio Valley today. To the south of the
boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will
likely result in pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. In
spite of limited large-scale ascent, increasing low-level
convergence near the boundary will result in scattered convective
initiation. Deep-layer shear near the front may be strong enough for
a few isolated severe storms in areas that destabilize the most. The
primary threat will be damaging wind gusts.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/14/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the
mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over central Canada Thursday morning is forecast
to undergo considerable amplification while translating into the
Great Lakes late Thursday night/early Friday. Ahead of that feature,
an upper low will weaken into an increasingly sheared open wave
while accelerating from the central High Plains into the Midwest.
That pattern evolution will yield a steadily strengthening
deep-layer wind field over the mid-MS and OH Valleys through the
forecast period. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected
to develop along a warm front from central or eastern KS through the
mid-MS and OH Valleys to the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a
trailing cold front will surge south through much of the southern
Plains, Ozark Plateau, and mid-MS Valley.


...Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
Thursday morning from the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley
ahead of the surface low and within a zone of low-level warm
advection and the possible influence of a lead disturbance moving
through the region. A subset of the morning storms is likely to
continue through the remainder of the day with convective outflow
and clouds limiting air mass destabilization in those areas. 

A relatively narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will
be advected into the northern extension of the system warm sector,
contributing to MLCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg by mid to late afternoon
in areas peripheral to active convection. A subsequent increase in
surface-based storm coverage and intensity is expected at that time
from east-central MO into central and southern IL. The presence of
40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will be supportive of transient
supercell and bowing structures capable of isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two through the evening. 

The duration and eastward extent of the damaging wind threat remain
in question Thursday night in the mid to upper-OH Valley. Model
soundings indicate a shallow, near-ground inversion developing
within the warm sector as the surface low outpaces better low-level
moisture return. However, widely spaced damaging wind gusts may
still remain possible given the presence of 40-50 kt winds within
the lowest km above ground.


...Southern Plains/Ozark Plateau...

A few strong storms capable of gusty winds and/or small hail appear
possible Thursday afternoon and evening along the cold front
progressing through the region. Poor midlevel lapse rates, weak
low-level winds, and deep-layer shear vectors oriented parallel to
the progressive/undercutting front are likely to lead to
outflow-dominant, disorganized convective modes, limiting severe
weather potential.

..Mead.. 10/14/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over the Four Corners region will send an eastward
progressing cold front into western NM today. High elevation snow is
likely in southwestern to central CO with precipitation chances
spreading into the central Plains as the trough lifts over northern
CO. Farther west, an offshore gradient will begin to develop this
afternoon in southern CA, increasing east/northeast sustained winds
to 15-20 mph amid 15-20% RH in terrain-favored gaps of western
L.A./Ventura/Santa Barbara counties; thus, locally elevated fire
weather conditions are possible where pockets of dry fuels exist.
The pressure gradient will strengthen late in the forecast period
(early Thursday morning) leading into an offshore wind event on Day
2/Thursday.

Meanwhile, high pressure will transition over the Southeast,
transporting rich Gulf moisture into the southern Plains and Ozarks.
As a result, anomalously high PWATs ranging from 1.8-2.2" and
afternoon large scale ascent will promote areas of heavy rainfall
along a sagging cold front. This system is expected to provide
relief to drying fuels across the region, especially to areas
categorized by extreme to exceptional drought.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...