Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...AND THE
WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York/western
Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the western Maryland Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level short-wave troughing is forecast to shift
east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and adjacent Ontario into
the Northeast today and tonight.  This trough will be accompanied by
a surface cold front, advancing eastward/southeastward across these
same areas through the period.

Elsewhere, low-amplitude ridging will prevail across the central and
western U.S.  Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton should continue to
evolve/gradually strengthen across the western Gulf of Mexico
through the period.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians...
Daytime heating ahead of an advancing cold front, combined with a
ribbon of low 60s dewpoints along the front extending from Lake
Ontario southwestward, will result in modest afternoon
destabilization (500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected).  As
the front advances ahead of the associated upper trough, the
thermodynamic environment should prove sufficient -- in tandem with
frontal forcing -- for thunderstorm development to occur. 

Moderately strong (50 to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies are forecast to
overspread the region through the day.  Given low-level
southwesterlies expected ahead of the front, this veering/increasing
flow with height will be sufficient to support organized/rotating
storms.  Initial cellular convection may thus become supercellular
locally, with a tornado possible along with risk for large hail and
damaging wind gusts.  With time, storms should grow upscale into a
more linear frontal band, with damaging winds becoming the more
prevalent risk through late afternoon/early evening.

Later in the evening, as the front crosses the higher terrain,
convective intensity -- and associated severe potential -- should
diminish, given weaker instability expected east of the mountains.

..Goss/Karstens.. 10/06/2024

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but no severe thunderstorms are
expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across New England on Monday,
as a cyclonic flow regime remains over much of the northeastern
third of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward into the Carolinas, Georgia and central Gulf
Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with
surface dewpoints across the Florida Peninsula in the 60s and low
70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, weak
destabilization is expected. In response, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible in some areas across the Florida
Peninsula Monday afternoon. Instability is not expected to be strong
enough across the Florida Peninsula for a severe threat.

..Broyles.. 10/06/2024

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop
Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula.

...Western Florida Peninsula...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Milton
to become a hurricane and to move northeastward across the Gulf of
Mexico over the next couple of days. Milton is forecast to approach
the western coast of the Florida Peninsula late Tuesday night.
Strong low-level shear associated with Milton would be sufficient
for an isolated tornado threat across much of the western Florida
Peninsula, beginning on Tuesday night as Milton approaches the
coast. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this range
concerning the track of Milton. Although a Marginal has been added
for parts of the western Florida Peninsula, the area with the
greatest severe threat could shift if the forecast track of Milton
changes.

..Broyles.. 10/06/2024