WW 567 SEVERE TSTM IN OH 111635Z - 120000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 567
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Easterm Indiana
Western Ohio
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected to
affect the watch area this afternoon, including a fast-moving bow
echo over northwest Indiana. Damaging winds (some significant
damage possible) are the primary concern, although a tornado or two
is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest
of Columbus OH to 45 miles south southeast of Dayton OH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 563...WW 564...WW
565...WW 566...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28035.
...Hart
WW 566 SEVERE TSTM KY OH VA WV 111540Z - 112100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kentucky
Southeast Ohio
Extreme Southwest Virginia
West Virginia
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 1140 AM until
500 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...A line of severe storms in southeast Ohio will track
across the watch area, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles either side of a line from 65 miles south of
Huntington WV to 95 miles northeast of Charleston WV. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 563...WW 564...WW 565...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Hart
WW 565 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LM 111500Z - 112100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Indiana
Southwest Lower Michigan
Northwest Ohio
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 1100 AM until
500 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this morning, but more
widespread severe weather risk is expected by early afternoon as a
fast-moving line of intense storms spreads across the watch area.
Severe wind gusts are possible with this activity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southwest of Valparaiso IN to 55 miles east southeast of Fort Wayne
IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 563...WW 564...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29040.
...Hart
WW 564 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 111240Z - 111800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
840 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Indiana
Northern into Northeast Kentucky
West-Central into Southwest Ohio
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 840 AM until
200 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A bowing segment and associated squall line will continue
southeast through the morning into the Watch area. Scattered severe
gusts (60 to 80 mph) are possible with the more intense surges
within the squall line. A brief tornado is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of
Dayton OH to 50 miles west southwest of Huntington WV. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 563...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
32035.
...Smith
WW 563 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN WI LM 111220Z - 111900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
720 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Iowa
Northern and Central Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Southwest and Southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 720 AM until
200 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...An intensifying squall line will continue east into the
Watch area this morning through the midday. Severe gusts (60 to 85
mph) will likely become more prevalent and widespread as the squall
line matures through the late morning. An embedded tornado or two
is possible within the squall line.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest
of Dubuque IA to 80 miles east of Marseilles IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28040.
...Smith
WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0567 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE HTS
TO 25 N CRW TO 25 SSE PKB TO 35 S HLG.
..CHALMERS..08/11/26
ATTN...WFO...RLX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC127-111740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAWRENCE
VAC027-051-111740-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN DICKENSON
WVC005-007-011-013-015-017-019-021-039-041-043-045-047-059-067-
079-081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111740-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BRAXTON CABELL
CALHOUN CLAY DODDRIDGE
FAYETTE GILMER KANAWHA
WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925
..MEAD..08/11/26
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-011-015-017-023-033-035-039-045-049-053-057-059-
063-065-067-069-075-081-085-087-091-095-097-099-103-107-109-113-
121-131-133-135-139-141-145-149-151-157-159-165-169-171-179-181-
183-111740-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
BOONE CARROLL CASS
CLINTON DE KALB DELAWARE
ELKHART FOUNTAIN FULTON
GRANT HAMILTON HANCOCK
HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD
HUNTINGTON JAY JOHNSON
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE
MADISON MARION MARSHALL
MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORGAN
NOBLE PARKE PULASKI
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RUSH
ST. JOSEPH SHELBY STARKE
STEUBEN TIPPECANOE TIPTON
VERMILLION WABASH WARREN
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW LEX
TO 30 WSW HTS TO 20 ENE HTS.
..CHALMERS..08/11/26
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 564
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC011-017-025-063-071-115-119-133-153-159-165-175-193-195-205-
209-237-111740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATH BOURBON BREATHITT
ELLIOTT FLOYD JOHNSON
KNOTT LETCHER MAGOFFIN
MARTIN MENIFEE MORGAN
PERRY PIKE ROWAN
SCOTT WOLFE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CID TO
45 SSW RFD TO 30 W MMO TO 30 N BMI TO 15 ENE BMI TO 25 N CMI TO
20 NW DNV TO 20 N DNV TO 25 WSW VPZ TO 35 NW VPZ TO 20 ENE RAC.
..MEAD..08/11/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-019-071-073-095-113-123-131-143-155-161-175-179-183-187-
203-111740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU CHAMPAIGN HENDERSON
HENRY KNOX MCLEAN
MARSHALL MERCER PEORIA
PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STARK
TAZEWELL VERMILION WARREN
WOODFORD
INC007-073-111-127-111740-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON JASPER NEWTON
PORTER
IAC057-115-139-163-111740-
MD 1925 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563...565... FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Areas affected...northeast Illinois into far southwest lower
Michigan and northern and central Indiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563...565...
Valid 111642Z - 111845Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563, 565
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging winds with significant gusts up to 75-85 mph are
expected to continue with the ongoing bow echo. Brief tornadoes are
also possible.
DISCUSSION...An intense bow echo with a history of 85-95+ mph wind
gusts across Chicagoland has shifted into far northwest IN as of
1635Z. System movement is east at 55 to 60 kt. Considerable
downstream convection present from the vicinity of the bow echo to
north of Muncie has hindered daytime heating and resultant air mass
destabilization within the inflow region of the bow echo.
Nonetheless, the presence of an organized cold pool with an intense
rear-inflow jet will support the continuation of damaging winds with
significant gusts up to 75-85 mph for at least the next hour or two
across portions of northern IN and perhaps far southwest lower MI.
Brief tornadoes are also possible, especially with mesovortices
forming near or north of the apex of the bow.
Some recent CAM guidance suggests that a longer-duration significant
wind threat could materialize within the southern flank of the bow
echo and preceding convective band over central into southeast IN.
That scenario appears plausible given the influx of a strongly
unstable air mass from central IL into the region.
..Mead.. 08/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 40898785 41428750 41698735 41848649 41828585 41638518
40958502 40538500 40268510 40088535 39968574 39878640
40358759 40898785
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1924 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1924
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Areas affected...southeast Indiana into west-central and southwest
Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 111612Z - 111715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather is expected to increase by
early afternoon, likely requiring a new severe thunderstorm watch.
DISCUSSION...Recent trends in base velocity data indicate a
strengthening cold pool with the leading edge of thunderstorms near
Marion, IN. That convection is located to the north of an outflow
boundary stretching from northwest through southeast IN. However,
prevailing west-southwest low-level winds (per KIND VWP) will likely
support the eastward movement of the boundary with resultant air
mass recovery expected across portions of western OH by early
afternoon. As such, it appears likely that the above-mentioned
storms will continue to spread southeast into the discussion area
within the next hour or so. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
hazard with the most intense storms.
..Mead/Hart.. 08/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...
LAT...LON 40548461 40558401 40098354 39318339 38898378 38898408
39098466 39228500 39418516 39978499 40548461
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1923 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564... FOR CENTRAL OHIO...FAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND WESTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1923
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Areas affected...central Ohio...far southeast Indiana...northeast
Kentucky...western West Virginia...and western Virginia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564...
Valid 111518Z - 111715Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds is expected to continue
across the watch area this morning. Additional storm development is
possible along a composite outflow boundary from northeast Kentucky
into western Virginia by early afternoon, possibly requiring an
additional watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...A mature MCS with embedded bowing structure is ongoing
as of 1510Z across portions of central and southern OH with a wind
gust to 82 mph reported within the past hour at the Columbus John
Glenn International Airport. While that portion of the MCS is
currently the most intense, considerable downstream convection
present from southeast OH into northwest WV leads to uncertainty in
the longevity of the damaging wind threat given the convectively
overturned air mass.
Potentially greater air mass destabilization is expected by early
afternoon farther southwest from northeast KY into western portions
of WV and VA, in the vicinity of a composite outflow boundary.
There, storm intensification on the western flank of the OH MCS
appears possible, along with additional in situ development along
the boundary. While the region will reside on the southern fringe of
stronger vertical shear, the presence of moderate to strong
instability with steepening low-level lapse rates will support
damaging wind potential with the strongest storms.
..Mead/Hart.. 08/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 38698497 39198499 39948458 40068341 40098255 39308200
38798179 37788134 37018076 36858140 37048246 37458328
38698497
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM EASTERN IOWA TO VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible today
from the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity into parts of the
Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Areas of severe wind gusts
and hail will also be possible over parts of the northern Plains.
...IA to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
An uncertain and inherently complex forecast is apparent this
morning from IA east-southeastward into the central Appalachians.
An impulse embedded within west-northwest flow and an overnight MCV
moving into IA from NE appear to be aiding in MCS development this
morning over eastern IA, with this thunderstorm complex moving into
northern IL through the late morning.
While the exact evolution of a potential severe MCS moving across
the Midwest is uncertain, a possible scenario is the thunderstorm
activity over IA either merges with additional storms developing
ahead of it or it continues to intensify into the main severe-wind
producing MCS. Another severe cluster is located over eastern IN
within the eastern envelope of the EML. Considered higher wind
probabilities to be delineated this outlook update, but it remains
unclear regarding sequential details that would lead to a
high-confidence mesoscale corridor of severe wind and associated
wind damage. Nonetheless, environmental parameters (e.g., very rich
moisture, steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, adequate deep-layer shear)
will strongly favor the development of mature/severe linear
clusters/bows with the more intense storms that eventually evolve
today. This activity will likely move along a large CAPE gradient
that will likely be reinforced by early morning convection.
Scattered severe gusts (60-85 mph) will be likely in the favored
mesoscale corridors with swaths of concentrated wind damage. A
lower but appreciable severe risk may extend into VA and NC with a
lower severe threat with south extent into SC/GA.
...Northern Plains...
East/southeasterly flow along the surface trough is forecast to
maintain 60s F dewpoints across the western Dakotas and parts of NE
this afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the relatively
moist boundary layer, and strong heating will support a corridor of
moderate to strong instability across the western Dakotas.
Scattered storms are expected by early evening amid supercell wind
profiles. Elongated hodographs favorable for splitting cells with
an accompanying risk for large to very large hail are forecast.
Isolated severe gusts also could occur. Given the lack of a
stronger low-level jet during the nighttime hours, it appears
unlikely that upscale growth will occur, and convection is expected
to wane with eastward extent overnight.
...Mojave Desert of CA...
Early morning radar imagery shows an MCV moving slowly northwest
over the lower CO River Valley and this feature is likely associated
with a weak disturbance moving northwest into southern CA. The
airmass across the desert will undergo strong heating in wake of
early day cloud debris. Another likely convectively augmented
mid-level impulse will move across southern AZ towards southern CA
today. Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon amid a seasonably moist airmass and an inverted-V
thermodynamic profile is depicted in forecast soundings. Isolated
severe gusts are possible with the more intense downdrafts.
..Smith/Kerr.. 08/11/2026
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS TO VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will occur today from
the northern Indiana into parts of the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. Areas of severe wind gusts and hail will also be
possible over parts of the northern Plains.
...IL/IN/OH...
A fast moving and intense bowing MCS is affecting the Chicago metro
area this morning with significant severe wind gusts. This activity
will race east-southeastward across northern IN and eventually
western OH. Increasingly widespread thunderstorms and associated
outflow ahead of this complex lends uncertainty to the evolution of
the bow, and the corridor of greatest damaging wind potential.
Refer to MDs #1921 and #1922 for further details.
...OH/WV/KY/VA...
Another linear MCS is affecting southeast OH, and will spread across
WV and into VA later today. The air mass ahead of this complex is
not as unstable, and considerable uncertainty exists regarding this
system's longevity. Nevertheless, sufficient flow aloft and
mesoscale organization will maintain a risk of damaging wind gusts.
Refer to MD #1923 for further details.
...ND/SD/NE...
Moderately strong westerly flow aloft is present today across the
Dakotas, with a moist and unstable air mass in place over the Black
Hills region. This will likely lead to widely scattered
thunderstorm development by early evening. Supercells capable of
large hail and damaging winds are expected. It is unclear how far
southeast these storms will maintain intensity, but model guidance
suggests at least into central SD before weakening overnight.
..Hart/Weinman.. 08/11/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected across portions of the Intermountain West
and southern High Plains this afternoon. Emanating from recent days
of afternoon thunderstorms fueled by monsoonal moisture, fuels have
begun displaying much desired improvement across the southern Great
Basin. Unfortunately, today's dry and breezy conditions will overlap
portions of the northern Great Basin and western Wyoming where dry
thunderstorms and lightning has occurred over the last 24 hours.
Given the expected meteorological setup amid an exceptionally dry
fuelscape, holdovers may emerge. The rest of the forecast remains on
track, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest,
stretching into the Northern Rockies while mid-level troughing edges
closer to the OR/northern CA coast. Modest mid-level flow on the
northern periphery of the ridge and efficient boundary layer mixing
should support a swath of dry, west/northwest surface winds this
afternoon from northeastern CA, northern Great Basin, arcing
eastward into the high plains of eastern WY. These elevated fire
conditions will be north of deeper monsoonal moisture across the
Southwest, southern Great Basin and CO River Basin regions where a
mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms over higher terrain
are expected.
...Northern Great Basin, southern Idaho and Wyoming...
Fuels remain quite receptive across northeastern CA into
northwestern NV after multiple days of single digit daytime RH
values and poor overnight recoveries as monsoon moisture remains
suppressed to the south. Modest west/southwest flow aloft and
boundary layer mixing this afternoon will support breezy and dry
conditions across this region. West winds of 10-15 mph and enhanced
downslope drying off the Sierra Nevada resulting in 10% or below RH,
will present an elevated fire weather threat to northeastern CA and
adjacent NV. Transient critical fire weather conditions are possible
where winds reach 20 mph, but on a localized basis. Similarly dry
and breezy conditions over receptive fuels will promote elevated
fire weather concerns across southern ID, eastward into the high
plains of WY.
...Southern High Plains...
A lee cyclone across the Central Plains will bolster a modest south
wind across the Southern High Plains today. Southerly winds of up to
15 mph and surface RH as low as 10% within a well-mixed boundary
layer will combine to generate elevated fire weather conditions over
the northeastern TX Panhandle, northwestern OK and adjacent southern
KS this afternoon. Fuels receptivity continues to increase from
curing fine fuels amid expanding drought.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The potential for dry thunderstorms exists primarily on the northern
fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture entrenched across the
Southwest. Weak vertical shear within the upper ridge over the
region will confine thunderstorms to higher terrain features as
diurnal instability increases this afternoon. The slow movement
combined with PWAT values of 0.75-1.00 inch will limit ignition
potential to outside heavier rain cores. In addition, northward
transport of richer monsoon moisture is expected D2/Wednesday as
troughing deepens near the West Coast. Expected rainfall will
further reduce holdover threats with longer term fuel improvement as
higher humidity, cooler temperatures and additional shower and
thunderstorm activity (with possible wetting rains) emerge later
this week across the Southwest and Great Basin. Therefore, dry
thunderstorm highlights were not introduced.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
| 
