Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN UTAH...AND PARTS OF OHIO AND VICINITY....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across
parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado.

...OH and Vicinity...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows broken cloud cover across
much of OH, which will allow pockets of heating/destabilization and
lead to moderate CAPE values by mid-afternoon.  Widely scattered
thunderstorm development is expected, in a regime of relatively weak
westerly flow aloft and poor lapse rates.  PWAT values approaching 2
inches and rather steep low-level lapse rates could result in
precip-loaded downdrafts capable of strong or occasionally damaging
winds.

...UT...
Moisture has increased across UT over the past 24 hours, with
dewpoints now in the low-mid 50s and PWAT values over 1 inch.  This
along with ample heating will lead to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. A band of 35-45 knot southwesterly mid-level winds
across this area will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for a few
rotating storms capable of hail and gusty winds.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 09/16/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Low-end probabilities of wind damage could be included in later
outlook updates in the vicinity of the Appalachians/Ohio Valley, but
the overall severe-storm threat still appears too marginal for an
outlook area.

...Synopsis...
A subtropical high aloft will persist over the southern Plains and
lower MS Valley through tomorrow.  Around the periphery of the high
and in response to a shortwave trough crossing ON/QC, a surface cold
front will move slowly southeastward Thursday evening/overnight
across the upper OH Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic.  This
baroclinic zone will focus a few thunderstorm clusters during the
forecast period, with minor enhancement of midlevel flow (20+ kt)
and steepening of low-level lapse rates to support an
isolated/low-end threat for wind damage during the afternoon.  Given
the relatively poor midlevel lapse rates and offset of somewhat
stronger midlevel flow and the larger buoyancy, the threat for
severe storms appears low enough to not introduce probabilities in
this update.  Additional convection is expected farther west along
the front into the Midwest/Plains, though much of that convection
will likely be tied to low-level warm advection immediately north of
the front Thursday night.

Scattered thunderstorms are also probable across the
southern/central Rockies within the monsoonal moisture plume between
the southern Plains ridge and a closed low over northeast CA, as
well as the zone of weak ascent north-northeast of the midlevel low.
Very isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible, but the overall
threat appears too limited to warrant the addition of an outlook
area.

..Thompson.. 09/16/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

Elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across portions
of central Nevada with no changes needed for this update.
Temperatures are trending warmer and relative humidity lower from
yesterday, with dry, south-southwest flow expected to increase
through the day as a mid-level low remains over northern CA.
South-southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity falling to
around 15% will support an elevated fire concern threat for several
hours this afternoon.

..Williams.. 09/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low sliding southward from the Pacific Northwest will
stall over northern California this afternoon, increasing deep-layer
southwesterly flow across the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions
will continue across Texas and Oklahoma as high pressure expands
into the central U.S., though much lighter winds will limit broader
fire weather concerns.

...Central Nevada...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon where
dry and breezy south-southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum
RH values of 10-15% overlap drying fuels. RH may decline to less
than 10% in some valleys, but marginal fuel receptiveness will mute
a more significant fire weather concern across the area.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...