Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ME...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the central and
northern Plains, northern Georgia into the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic, central and eastern Maine, and from parts of the Great
Basin and Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies.

...Central/northern Plains westward into the northern
Rockies...Great Basin...and Desert Southwest...
An upper ridge will remain anchored over parts of the
Southwest/southern Rockies today. A series of midlevel vorticity
maxima will move along the periphery of the ridge from central CA
into the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and northern Plains. 

Across the central/northern Plains, moderate to locally strong
destabilization is forecast along/east of a surface trough that will
extend from the western Dakotas into the NE Panhandle. Relatively
strong MLCINH may limit coverage of diurnal storm development near
this surface trough, but deep-layer shear will support a hail and
localized severe-wind threat with any sustained storms through early
evening. A greater coverage of elevated convection is expected to
develop later this evening into the overnight, as storms spread
toward the eastern Dakotas and southwest MN. The pattern generally
suggests potential MCS development, though most CAM guidance is
relatively subdued regarding the intensity and attendant severe-wind
threat associated with the late-night storms. Greater severe
probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases
regarding development of diurnal storms and/or a robust nocturnal
MCS.

Farther west, relatively widespread storm development is expected
from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, potentially aided by
the midlevel vorticity maxima traversing the region. Buoyancy will
generally remain weak, but steep lapse rates and increasing flow in
the 700-500 mb layer along the periphery of the ridge will support
potential for persistent outflow-driven cells/clusters and strong to
localized severe gusts across a broad region. 

...Carolinas/north GA into the Mid-Atlantic...
A relatively broad/weak upper trough will gradually shift eastward
today across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic.
Widely scattered storm development is expected this afternoon within
a weakly capped and moderately buoyant environment. Relatively steep
low-level lapse rates and large PW will support localized downburst
potential, though weak deep-layer shear should generally limit the
organized-severe threat. 

...Parts of Maine...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of a
weak surface trough/front across parts of Maine this afternoon.
Modest destabilization (with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg) and
marginally supportive deep-layer shear could support at least
transient storm organization. The environment will not be
particularly favorable for severe wind or hail, but guidance
suggests some eventual clustering of storms and potential for
isolated wind damage and small to near-severe hail across parts of
central and eastern ME from the afternoon into the early evening.

..Dean/Wendt.. 08/28/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the northern
Great Basin and the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts are the main
threat.

...Synopsis...
The upper ridge that has remained stagnant across the Southwest into
the central U.S. will gradually drift toward the MS Valley tomorrow
(Saturday), resulting in the progression and amplification of a
mid-level trough over the Intermountain West. A surface lee trough
will gradually intensify east of the Rockies, with some potential
for surface low development over the northern High Plains. A belt of
stronger mid-level flow associated with the aforementioned upper
trough will overspread a relatively moist low-level airmass across
portions of the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. As such,
adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear will be in place to
support at least scattered strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.

...Portions of the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains...
A broad belt of 40-50 kt 500 mb flow will overspread the northern
Great Basin to ND through Saturday afternoon and evening, yielding
elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Furthermore, the approach of
the aforementioned upper trough will promote adequate QG ascent for
at least scattered thunderstorm development from the northern Great
Basin to the Dakotas. A relatively mixed boundary layer beneath the
broader region of stronger flow aloft and accompanying speed shear
will encourage at least isolated severe gust potential, hence the
introduction of broad Marginal Risk probabilities.

Across northern portions of the Great Basin, a relatively focused
corridor of severe wind potential exists immediately ahead of the
upper trough, where QG ascent will be strongest. NAM and RAP
forecast soundings disagree somewhat on thermodynamic profiles
across this region. RAP shows the presence of richer low-level
moisture (i.e. dewpoints over 60 F), amid 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates and over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Meanwhile, NAM depicts upper 40s F
low to 50s F dewpoints and slightly less steep mid-level lapse
rates. Nonetheless, both guidance members agree on showing over 1000
J/kg peak MLCAPE amid elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective
bulk shear, suggesting the potential for supercells. As such, a
Category 2/Slight Risk was introduced.

Across the Dakotas, immediately west of a surface low, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop amid moist low-level upslope
flow along the higher terrain. While mid-level lapse rates are not
expected to be overly steep in this region, these storms will
develop amid elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk
shear, with supercell structures possible. Severe wind and hail are
currently the main hazards expected with these storms, with a Slight
Risk introduced.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...Synopsis...
...Northern California into southeast Oregon...
Broad troughing across the West Coast will promote modest surface
trough development from southeast Oregon into portions of the
Sacramento Valley. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and afternoon RH of
10-20% will combine with very dry fuels to bring elevated fire
weather concerns.

...Northwest Montana...
A modest mid-level jet will persist across the northern Rockies into
the afternoon. This feature, along with a surface trough to the
east, will bring dry, downslope winds to the lee of the terrain in
northwest Montana. Winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in
terrain-favored areas) and 10-20% RH will promote elevated fire
weather during the afternoon.

...Southern California Coastal Ranges into San Joaquin Valley...
Moisture from the remnants of a tropical system will be drawn
northward by the trough off the West Coast. This increase in
moisture at midlevels and subtle lift from the terrain/trough will
contribute to isolated thunderstorm potential. Storm motions will be
fast enough and low levels dry enough to limit rainfall
accumulations where storms can develop. Uncertainty in storm
coverage remains high, but dry fuels would support lightning
ignitions.

...Southern California Transverse Ranges...
A weak offshore flow regime will bring 10-15 mph (locally higher)
winds within the higher terrain. Given the very hot temperatures and
dry fuels, fire weather will be elevated during the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 08/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...