Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the central U.S.
today, as southwesterly flow aloft remains in place over the West.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain in the
eastern U.S. as a lee trough develops in the High Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible today within a moist airmass in the
lower Mississippi Valley. Additional storms will be possible in
parts of the Intermountain West and Upper Midwest. Isolated to
scattered storms could also form in parts of Arizona and over the
southern Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected today or
tonight across the continental U.S.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 10/31/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of central New Mexico
into parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night, with at
least isolated damaging gusts possible.

...Discussion...
A deep upper trough and low will move quickly across the Great
Basin, as a southern stream disturbance moves from northern Baja CA
across AZ during the day and into NM overnight. At the surface, high
pressure will exist over much of the East, with southerly surface
winds increasing late in the day and into the overnight from the
High Plains into the Rockies in advance of the phasing upper system.


Low pressure will deepen from WY into CO overnight, with a cold
front moving into western NM late in the day. With the approaching
upper trough, pre-frontal winds are likely to remain gusty over NM
into the night which will keep the boundary layer a bit
warmer/mixed. With 50s F dewpoints, instability should be sufficient
for at least isolated severe storms as the cold front moves through.
The RRFS soundings shows around 500 MLCAPE at KABQ between 00-02Z
preceding the wind shift, with strong shear profiles including 55 kt
effective shear and effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Also depicted is a
high reflectively line with various bowing structures within,
possibly developing over west-central NM by 00Z. Locally severe
gusts will be the most likely threat from central NM during the
evening into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle overnight.

Depending on how organized any convective line becomes along the
cold front, some QLCS-type tornado potential could materialize.
Instability/time of day will be a limiting factor, but a low-end
threat corridor may become more apparent in later updates.

..Jewell.. 10/31/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...AND FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may develop across parts of the central to
southern Plains Monday from late afternoon into the evening, with
damaging wind gusts the main threat.

...Discussion...
On Monday, a large upper trough will cross the Rockies and move into
the Plains, with the upper low moving from CO into KS. A leading
wave will move out of the southern High Plains and into OK/KS during
the day, while the secondary and stronger wave moves eastward out of
northern NM.

At the surface, low pressure will be present over the central High
Plains Monday morning, and this will deepen into NE by 00Z. A cold
front will extend southwestward from the low, moving southward
across CO and western KS during the day. Another front/dryline will
extend south across central KS, western OK, and western TX through
00Z, and this boundary will push east overnight as the NM
disturbance proceeds eastward.

While ample deep-layer shear and a broad fetch of 60s F dewpoints
will exist over the central and southern Plains, surface heating
will be limited over much of the area, and likely relegated to the
dryline. Forecast soundings indicate a relatively cool but moist
boundary layer east of the dryline during the day, with a minor
capping inversion above 850 mb which should prevent warm sector
storms away from the dryline/front.

It is therefore anticipated that the severe risk will begin near or
just after 00Z over western OK and perhaps northwest TX, with
increasing storm coverage through the evening as activity spreads
across OK, eastern KS, and parts of northern TX. More isolated
activity will also be possible along the dryline toward the Rio
Grande.

Storms should initiate near the dryline/wind shift where upper 70s F
temperatures are expected, reducing inhibition. Ample turning with
height of the wind fields as well as up to a 50 kt low-level jet
will support storm rotation, whether discrete or forming into a
line. Instability will not be particularly strong, but sufficient to
support wind damage, and perhaps a tornado risk between 00-06Z.

..Jewell.. 10/31/2026