Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the previous outlook. See the discussion
below for more details.

..Karstens/Thornton.. 10/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue progressing eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today, as a surface cold front advances
east-southeastward over these regions and the Southeast/southern
Plains through the period. 12Z observed soundings ahead of the front
from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast show very poor lapse rates aloft
(i.e., 700-500 mb lapse rates of 4-5.5 C/km), which will likely
limit the development of any more than weak instability and hinder
overall updraft strength. While locally gusty winds could still
occur with low-topped showers/thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic
given the presence of modestly enhanced low/mid-level
west-southwesterly flow, the potential for organized clusters
capable of producing severe/damaging winds still appears low. Weaker
flow across the TN Valley and central Gulf Coast states will limit
updraft organization, but marginally greater instability should
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage through the
afternoon along/ahead of the cold front.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A deep midlevel trough will move from the Great Lakes to New
England, as upstream ridging persists from the Four Corners into the
Great Basin.  A previously stalled front will be reinforced and will
begin to move southeastward across the southern states, in the wake
of the Great Lakes midlevel trough.  A moisture plume will persist
along and ahead of the front, with sufficient buoyancy for embedded
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, in an environment with
weak vertical shear.  Elsewhere, isolated/diurnal convection with a
few lightning flashes will be possible over the high terrain of
southwest CO.  Farther west, a weak midlevel trough over the eastern
Pacific will approach northern CA/OR by late Sunday.  There is low
potential for enough moistening/ascent to support isolated lightning
flashes.  However, the threat appears sufficiently low to preclude
adding a thunderstorm area for CA/OR in this update.

..Thompson.. 10/02/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

No changes were made to the existing Elevated wind/RH area over far
southern California on Day 2/Saturday. The previous forecast remains
on track with RH minimums falling below 15-20% amid easterly winds
of 10-15 mph across the drawn area tomorrow afternoon. The San Diego
foothills could see wind gusts that exceed 40 mph during peak
heating.

..Stearns.. 10/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026/

...Synopsis...
At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast for portions
of Southern California on Saturday as an upper-level ridge
contributes to dry and breezy easterly off-shore flow. Relative
humidity minimums of 15-20% and winds of 10-15 MPH (potentially
gusting higher in the vicinity of the San Diego foothills) should
overlap with modestly dry fuels during the afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...