URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
205 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Eastern Kentucky
  Western Maryland
  Southeast Ohio
  Virginia
  West Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Relatively widespread clusters of storms will continue to
become increasingly common this afternoon, with the potential for
storms to organize over time as they progress generally
southeastward. Wind damage will be the most common hazard.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of
Charleston WV to 50 miles east northeast of Richmond VA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30025.

...Guyer

STATUS FOR WATCH 0653 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

Mesoscale Discussion 2232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...southeast Ohio...much of West Virginia...western
Maryland and northern and western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 041731Z - 041930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce areas of damaging gusts and
marginally severe hail through the afternoon from southeast Ohio
into Virginia.

DISCUSSION...Cells have intensified from central into southeast OH,
south of the synoptic wind shift and within the instability axis.
Precipitable water is high, with moderate instability developing.
Midlevel northwesterlies of 30-40 kt are also supporting cellular
and mixed storm modes including small bows. Given the destabilizing
air mass downstream of the existing storms, gradual upscale growth
may occur as outflow production/storm coverage increases.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   38978248 39418172 39698096 39767982 39577793 39077719
            38627744 37967822 37507916 37218080 37368163 37828223
            38138248 38978248 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of organized thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop
across the southern Great Lakes and mid/upper Ohio Valley today
through tonight, accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts.
More widely scattered strong thunderstorms east of the Blue Ridge
may also produce damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening.

...Midwest/southern Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic States...
As large-scale pattern amplification occurs, a belt of moderately
strong northwesterly flow aloft will tend to overlie a frontal zone
that extends from southern portions of Minnesota/Wisconsin
east-southeastward to Pennsylvania/New Jersey. That said, ongoing
convection has effectively modified/southward-shunted the effective
front in several areas, and this will be the primary focus for storm
intensification/redevelopment this afternoon, as well into the
evening/late night.

The steeper mid-level lapse rates will remain displaced west of the
region, but ample low-level moisture (i.e. upper 60s/low 70s
dewpoints) coupled with afternoon temperatures from the mid 80s to
mid 90s will still support moderate to strong buoyancy near/south of
the effective boundary. General storm re-intensification and/or new
development is anticipated this afternoon, particularly south/ahead
of currently ongoing clusters. Bowing line segments will be the
predominant storm mode, with damaging winds as the most common
hazard. 

The threat for damaging wind gusts will extend southeastward into
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening amid a very warm and
moist airmass. Vertical shear will be weaker with southward extent,
but ample moisture (i.e. PW values from 1.8" to 2"), strong
buoyancy, and steep low-level lapse rates will support the potential
for strong outflow capable of wind damage. Bowing line
segments will be the primary storm mode here as well.

...Southern Wisconsin/southern Lake Michigan vicinity...
The same general meteorological thematic scenario as described in
the prior section applies to this region, and severe probabilities
have been extended westward regionally, albeit for a somewhat
conditional/uncertain scenario. A robust reservoir of
moisture/locally extreme buoyancy will exist particularly to the
south of ongoing midday convection. The region will be influenced by
the amplifying upper ridge, but there is at least some possibility
that storm redevelopment/intensification could occur near/east of
the surface triple point and/or near outflow, with some related
severe potential. Development could also occur toward the southern
Lake Michigan vicinity later tonight as isentropic ascent increases
near/northeast of the surface boundary.

...North-central Plains/Dakotas...
While perceived severe probabilities remain below 5%, some
strong/sporadic severe potential may exist also South Dakota, far
northern Nebraska and/or southeast North Dakota later today through
late tonight, although confidence in specific meteorological
scenarios remains low.

Weak lee troughing will contribute to modest low-level convergence
from western Kansas across western/central Nebraska into southwest
South Dakota. Dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s F
within this convergence zone, and steep mid-level lapse rates will
contribute to moderate/strong buoyancy. Even so, warm mid-levels may
prevent the airmass from completely destabilizing. The remaining
convective inhibition, coupled with the presence of large-scale
height rises across the region, casts doubt to whether successful
convective initiation will occur. Any mature updrafts could result
in strong downdraft, but uncertainty remains high. Other storm
development could occur tonight, potentially as a byproduct of a
subtle mid-level wave/ongoing convection ongoing across South Dakota
this morning.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/04/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across
portions of the central Appalachians and Carolinas on Saturday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe
wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains
and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.

...Eastern Carolinas...
A mid-level trough across the western Atlantic is forecast to
retrograde slightly on Saturday with an associated surface front
expected to move slowly southward from the Mid-Atlantic to the
Carolinas. South of this cold front, a very moist airmass will be in
place with strong instability, particularly across the eastern
Carolinas. Farther west, downslope flow off the mountains may result
in a more stable environment in the western half of the Carolinas.
This signal varies within the guidance, and confidence is not high
enough to lower probabilities across this area, but the greater
threat should remain farther east where mid to upper 70s dewpoints
and around 30 knots of shear amid a front and height falls aloft
should support scattered strong to severe storms capable of mostly
damaging winds.

...Ohio Valley...
Strong heating across eastern Kentucky and vicinity should provide
an unstable and uncapped airmass by Saturday afternoon. Mid-level
flow will be relatively weak across this region (~20 knots) and
therefore, effective shear and storm organization is expected to be
weak. However, strong heating and steep lapse rates will support
some damaging wind threat Saturday afternoon/evening. Some guidance
shows these storms clustering and traversing the Appalachians and
continuing into western Virginia and western North Carolina. The
relatively weak shear, and potential for lesser instability due to
downslope flow across the eastern Appalachians casts significant
doubt on this potential. 

...Central to northern Plains...
Most guidance shows ongoing thunderstorms within a warm-air
advection zone across southeast South Dakota Saturday morning.
Isolated large hail is possible with this activity during the
morning hours before the low-level jet weakens and backs and these
thunderstorms weaken by late morning.

As the mid-level ridge strengthens during the day Saturday, height
rises will be present across much of the Plains. Despite this,
upslope flow will develop across the central High Plains. Within
this region, forecast soundings show moderate instability but weak
mid-level flow. This will support some isolated large hail and
severe wind gusts, but the lack of shear should limit the overall
severe weather threat.

A more organized cluster of storms may develop across southwest
Nebraska, but do not expect storm intensity to warrant higher severe
weather probabilities. 

After 00Z, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen across the
central/northern Plains. This could result in some isolated storm
development during the overnight period into the Dakotas. Given the
strong instability forecast across this region, these storms could
contain large hail or damaging wind gusts.  

...North-central Montana...
A mid-level jet streak on the eastern periphery of a mid-level
trough across the Northwest will remain across Montana for much of
the period on Saturday. Weak instability may develop as temperatures
warm into the 70s across west-central Montana Saturday afternoon.
Overall, moisture will be lacking (30s F dewpoints) which should
limit the severe weather threat. However, there is some instability
within a zone of moderate to strong shear. Therefore, one or two
fast-moving strong storms may develop within this zone, but the
overall lack of moisture/instability precludes severe weather
probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 09/04/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 041700Z - 051200Z

No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions are expected today across
portions of the northern Plains where fuels remain receptive. Poor
overnight RH recoveries were observed in much of central-northern
Wyoming, while modest to good recoveries occurred in the western
Dakotas and eastern Montana. 16z satellite imagery depicts
dissipating fog over western North Dakota and clear skies beyond the
Powder River Basin, allowing RH values to decline as daytime heating
ensues. High temperatures of 90-100 F and south-southwesterly
sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid 10-15% RH will maintain an
Elevated fire weather threat across the region this afternoon.
Please see the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will remain in place over the Pacific
Northwest today, with upper-level ridging located across the
southern Great Plains. This will support the persistence of modest
southwesterly, mid-level flow across the northern Rockies and
northern High Plains while a surface low migrates slowly eastward
across central Montana. This will promote another day of Elevated
fire weather conditions across portions of the northern High Plains
today.

...Portions of the Northern Rockies and northern High Plains...
Elevated surface winds of 5-10 mph in conjunction with a modest
strengthening of southeasterly 850 mb flow owing to a deepening
surface low over western/central Montana will generally limit
overnight humidity recoveries into this morning, with RH of 15-30%
noted across the outlook area as of 0500 UTC. A very dry boundary
layer will persist across the region today, with minimum RH values
of 10-15% likely this afternoon across south-central/southeastern
Montana, central Wyoming, and adjacent areas of the northern Great
Plains. South-southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph aligned with
low RH and receptive fuels will promote elevated fire weather
concerns across this area today.

The Elevated highlights were expanded slightly across portions of
central Montana with this outlook based on the latest guidance and
HREF wind/RH probabilities. Brief periods of locally critical
conditions may be possible in the lee of the Big Horn Mountains
where the latest guidance depicts the greatest potential for
stronger sustained surface winds. However, confidence in a sustained
period of 20+ mph winds is low at this time.

...Great Basin...
Similarly dry, southwesterly flow is forecast today across the
southeastern portions of the Great Basin. While localized elevated
fire weather conditions may impact locations where recent rainfall
was minimal and/or where pockets of dry fuels remain, generally
marginal fuels across southeastern NV and southwestern UT should
mitigate a broader fire weather threat.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...