Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty
winds this evening into the overnight hours across portions of the
southern Plains.

...Southern Plains...

Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough off the Baja Peninsula. This southern-stream feature is
beginning to eject northeast in response to the Great Basin/CA
trough digging toward the lower CO River Valley. By early evening,
00z model guidance suggests this southern short wave will deamplify
as it translates across northern Mexico, then into the southern High
Plains during the overnight hours. Modest 12hr height falls will
overspread this region and southeasterly 850mb flow is expected to
respond and increase across the Edwards Plateau into western OK
ahead of the short wave. As a result, a modified Gulf air mass will
begin to advance inland and 50s surface dew points are expected to
overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, with further
moistening expected along the I35 corridor well into the overnight
hours.

Latest guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted
from far West TX into western OK such that 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE is
expected prior to potential convective development. Ample deep layer
shear will be present for organized updrafts and an increasing LLJ
should encourage convection during the overnight hours. Forecast
soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22-23z
and HREF guidance supports this with isolated-scattered storms
evolving across far West TX into western OK by early evening. This
activity will gradually increase in areal coverage as it
spreads/develops east-northeast during the overnight hours. Wind
profiles favor supercell development and large hail will be the
primary concern, along with gust potential. Some consideration was
given to increasing severe probabilities across this region but
instability is not expected to be particularly noteworthy. Will
continue to monitor this region as moisture returns to the southern
Plains.

..Darrow/Supinie.. 02/13/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Great Plains
into lower Mississippi Valley, mainly late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe
weather.

...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the central
into eastern mid-latitude Pacific.  Downstream of a prominent
building mid-level ridge, it appears that a significant mid-level
trough will dig offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast Saturday through
Saturday night, accompanied by at least modest surface cyclogenesis.


Further downstream, mid-level ridging appears likely to continue
building inland across the southern Great Basin and southern
California through much of the Four Corners states.  Guidance
indicates that a preceding short wave trough will remain progressive
across and east of the southern Great Plains, in the wake of
larger-scale troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard. 
However, there remains notable spread among the various model output
concerning the movement of this perturbation across Texas toward the
lower Mississippi Valley through this period.

Forcing for ascent accompanying this short wave is forecast to
support surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, but
this may remain modest to weak, particularly across the southern
Great Plains, with the most notable deepening generally not forecast
to occur until Saturday night across southeast Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley...
It appears that widespread, layered cloud cover and precipitation
will precede the short wave trough through much of the south central
U.S. by 12Z Saturday, and this may tend to inhibit potential for
appreciable destabilization, despite an influx of Gulf
boundary-layer moisture characterized by mid 50s to mid 60s F
surface dew points across much of Texas and Oklahoma.  At least
somewhat drier air advecting in mid-levels to the south of the Red
River might allow for daytime warming and breaks in the low-level
overcast.  However, stronger mid-level cooling, to the north of a
70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak propagating south of the Texas Big Bend
toward northwest Gulf coastal areas, might be the primary
contributor to destabilization.  Based on forecast soundings, most
unstable parcels might remain mostly rooted above a saturated
near-surface layer with generally moist adiabatic lapse rates,
particularly across southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley.

Even so, the destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 500+
J/kg), in the presence of strong deeper-layer shear, may become
supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development posing a risk for
severe hail, at least initially.  Aided by favorable large-scale
forcing for ascent, there does appear potential for stronger
convection to consolidate and organize across central toward
southeastern Texas late Saturday afternoon into evening.  As this
occurs, the development of strong surface gusts might not be out of
the question.  Tornadic potential may be limited due to weak near
surface lapse rates/instability, but low-level hodographs could
become more conducive across southeastern Texas into the lower
Mississippi Saturday night, as the surface cyclone deepens.

..Kerr.. 02/13/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet max will traverse
the southwestern CONUS through the day today, bringing mid-level
moisture from the Pacific. Additionally, with the lee troughing
across the southern high Plains, moist air is expected to surge
northward cross the southern Plains. This is expected to promote
widespread precipitation in these regions, minimizing fire weather
concerns. Elsewhere, surface high pressure associated with
northwesterly flow aloft should settle across the eastern CONUS, and
the light winds associated with the high pressure should keep fire
concerns minimal.

..Supinie.. 02/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...