Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the Great Lakes
into the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal
Mid-Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will progress eastward across
Virginia and the Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite
this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the
front moving offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but
strong westerlies just off the surface could yield gusty winds.

The south-southwest extent of front will decelerate today and then
generally stall, orienting in a west/southwest-east/northeast
fashion across Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama
and the middle part of Georgia by late today. Isolated thunderstorms
may become a bit more probable into tonight as weak ascent focuses
along/north of the front. That said, relatively warm mid-level
thermodynamic profiles may limit the prevalence of lightning, as
well as any consideration for meaningful hail magnitudes. This is
even while elevated instability will quantitatively increase and
hodographs will be rather long, with steadily strengthening
southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL and 50+ kt shear
through the cloud-bearing layer. While a couple of strong storms
could occur tonight, thinking remains that the potential for severe
storms should remain low/conditional.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/20/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air
pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the
eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow
regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest
flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States.
This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold
front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week.
However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front
should temper any severe potential. 

The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf.
This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will
limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent
thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the
forecast period.