Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on
Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a
couple of strong wind gusts.

... Discussion ...

A mid-level shortwave trough over the Central Plains is forecast to
weaken as it tracks southwest toward the Gulf Coast states during
the day Thursday. At the surface, a low initially located across
central Texas will shift southward during the day, leaving an
elongated area of low pressure stretching east-northeast along a
residual surface front. This boundary is expected to sag slowly
southward through the day, though low-level convergence along the
front appears weak.

... Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast ...

Boundary-layer moisture will be characterized by dewpoints perhaps
as high as mid 60Fs across the northern Gulf Coast decreasing to mid
50Fs across northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. The strongest
instability is expected across Louisiana, where MUCAPE may approach
1000 J/kg. However, forecast soundings across this region indicate a
notable capping inversion between 850 and 700 mb. Further north and
east, the airmass will be characterized by lesser instability but
much weaker capping inversion.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop along and
ahead of the sagging surface front. The overall severe threat should
be limited owing to the meager instability and the weakening nature
of the primary forcing mechanism. Additionally, low-level shear is
notably weaker than previous model runs -- continuing the trend
started yesterday.

Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer shear persists to support
organized linear modes, especially with the stronger convective
elements. While the lack of stronger low-level forcing and meager
low-level buoyancy should prevent a widespread event, the more
robust convective segments will be capable of producing isolated
strong/damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 02/25/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Southeast on Friday.
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

... Discussion ...

Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start
of the forecast period across portions of the Southeast along and
south of a slow moving surface front. These showers and
thunderstorms will likely be aided by a modest low-level
jet/warm-air advection regime. These thunderstorms will persist into
early Friday afternoon within a moist, uncapped environment and
broad troughing aloft. Meager instability (on the order of less than
500 J/kg), decreasing convergence along the surface front, and
generally weakening kinematic field should preclude any organized
severe potential.

..Marsh.. 02/25/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the
overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western
ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough
and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into
the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the
Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the
overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.

This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as
southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold
front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas
on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members
suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.

By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary
should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow
low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central
Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture
advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within
the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential
for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for
unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests
thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions
of the central US just beyond this forecast period.