No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 4 19:48:02 UTC 2026.MD 2444 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...ADJACENT EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Areas affected...parts of south central through northeastern
Alabama...adjacent eastern Tennessee and northwestern Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 041933Z - 042130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Strengthening thunderstorm development possible through
4-6 PM EST, with stronger cells occasionally becoming capable of
producing small hail, and eventually downbursts with potential to
produce locally damaging surface gusts.
DISCUSSION...A broken, pre-cold frontal squall line has been
maintained and undergoing slow intensification, aided by low-level
convergence and forcing for ascent downstream of negatively tilted
mid-level troughing now spreading into/across the southern
Appalachians vicinity. Based on an 18Z observed sounding from BMX,
as well as Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, the environment ahead
of this activity includes a deep surface-based moist layer (with
surface dew points near 70F), which is becoming characterized by
CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg with continuing insolation beneath a
relatively warm, capping layer based near/above 700 mb. At the same
time, southerly low-level wind fields have been veering and
weakening with time, resulting in shrinking, more linear low-level
hodographs. However, deep-layer shear beneath 40-50+ kt
southwesterly mid-level flow remains strong and potentially
supportive of evolving supercell structures.
Over the next few hours, it appears that lift and at least some
further boundary-layer warming/destabilization will continue to
overcome lingering mid-level inhibition and support intensifying
thunderstorm development. Although thermodynamic profiles appear
generally warm with relatively high freezing and wet-bulb zero
levels, a few stronger cells may become capable of producing small
to perhaps (briefly) marginally severe hail and, eventually, a few
downbursts with potentially damaging surface gusts before weakening.
This may continue while spreading eastward into early evening,
before diminishing.
..Kerr/Hart.. 11/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...
LAT...LON 35628429 34428469 32188615 31538763 33158702 35948579
35628429
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 2443 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO ADJACENT UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Areas affected...parts of northern Georgia into adjacent Upstate
South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 041842Z - 042115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Evolving supercell structures with potential to produce a
tornado or two appear possible across the Piedmont of northeastern
Georgia and adjacent Upstate South Carolina by 4-6 PM EST. It is
still not certain that this will require a severe weather watch, but
trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...A lingering belt of moderate to strong southeasterly to
southerly low-level flow (around 850 mb) across much of western and
northern Georgia is in the process of weakening and shifting
north-northeastward based on latest Rapid Refresh output. By
20-22Z, strongest flow is forecast to become confined to the
Piedmont into higher terrain of northeastern Georgia and adjacent
Upstate South Carolina, but may still include speeds on the order of
30-35+ kt supporting sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs,
within an associated low-level warm advection zone.
Rapid 2-hourly surface pressure falls in excess of 2 mb are already
evident in 17Z surface observation across much of the Georgia into
South Carolina Piedmont, where associated ageostrophic accelerations
may contribute to increasing low-level convergence and further
moistening of boundary-layer dew points through the mid/upper 60s F.
Despite generally weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, coupled
with some boundary warming within breaks in the overcast,
near-surface destabilization may support intensifying convective
development, as negatively-tilted mid-level troughing slowly spreads
into/across the southern Appalachians. This may include a few
evolving supercell structures with potential to produce a couple of
tornadoes. However, this threat still appears conditioned on the
evolution of near-surface thermoynamic profiles becoming conducive
to at least weak surface-based buoyancy.
..Kerr/Hart.. 11/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 33878407 34448371 34858283 34218257 33648317 33588385
33878407
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two
will be possible across parts of the Southeast.
...Southeast...
Moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft is present over the southeast
states today, with water vapor imagery showing a pronounced
shortwave trough over MS/AL. As this trough translates eastward
today, scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of AL/GA/SC and
east TN. Two regimes appear to pose a risk of isolated
strong/severe storms later today.
The first area is along the primary cold front over eastern AL and
western GA. Most recent CAM solutions suggest scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the front by mid-afternoon, with at
least pockets of heating occurring out ahead. A few supercells are
possible. Forecast soundings show weakening low-level winds and
some veering in areas of better heating. This may tend to reduce
the tornado risk, but the strongest cells could be capable of
locally damaging wind gusts.
Another area of concern will stretch from central/northeast GA into
upstate SC later today. Low-level winds will remain backed and
moderately strong in this area, leading to favorable shear profiles
for a tornado or two in the more persistent storms.
..Hart/Smith.. 11/04/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two
will be possible across parts of the Southeast.
...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk area to clear
behind the ongoing convection. See MCD#2444 and the previous
discussion below for more details.
..Halbert-E.. 11/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026/
...Southeast...
Moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft is present over the southeast
states today, with water vapor imagery showing a pronounced
shortwave trough over MS/AL. As this trough translates eastward
today, scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of AL/GA/SC and
east TN. Two regimes appear to pose a risk of isolated
strong/severe storms later today.
The first area is along the primary cold front over eastern AL and
western GA. Most recent CAM solutions suggest scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the front by mid-afternoon, with at
least pockets of heating occurring out ahead. A few supercells are
possible. Forecast soundings show weakening low-level winds and
some veering in areas of better heating. This may tend to reduce
the tornado risk, but the strongest cells could be capable of
locally damaging wind gusts.
Another area of concern will stretch from central/northeast GA into
upstate SC later today. Low-level winds will remain backed and
moderately strong in this area, leading to favorable shear profiles
for a tornado or two in the more persistent storms.
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