Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes needed.

..Mosier.. 12/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/

...Discussion...
A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today,
while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast.
Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will
advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley.
Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Friday through Friday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will persist near the Pacific coast while broad upper
troughing continues across the eastern U.S. Stronger flow aloft will
be displaced from the only appreciable, albeit modest, moisture
along the Texas coastal plain. A surface low over the OH/TN Valleys
will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic late in the period, allowing
a weak cold front to develop south toward the western and central
Gulf coasts. Some thunderstorm activity could develop late in the
period over the western Gulf waters as a weak shortwave impulse
moves across northeast Mexico. However, thunderstorm activity is
expected to remain offshore, precluding 10 percent general thunder
probabilities.

..Leitman.. 12/11/2025

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across near South
Florida and the Keys Saturday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will deepen as the western
upper ridging moves inland through the forecast period on Saturday.
A surface boundary extending along the western and central Gulf
coast vicinity will move offshore by the end of the period. Weak
warm advection and some modestly increasing midlevel westerly flow
in the vicinity of this boundary may support isolated showers from
the TX coast into portions of the central Gulf coast. However,
forecast soundings indicate minimal instability (100-200 J/kg
MUCAPE), largely stunted by warm midlevel temperatures. While
shallow convection is possible, lightning appears unlikely. 

The exception may be across far southern FL and the Keys late in the
period where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place. This
will support greater instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) amid
modest vertical shear ahead of the upper trough. A few thunderstorms
may approach the Keys and South FL coast in the 08-12z time frame.

..Leitman.. 12/11/2025