No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 2 08:47:01 UTC 2025.MD 2245 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR WV...NORTHWESTERN VA...WESTERN MD...AND FAR SOUTHWEST PA
Mesoscale Discussion 2245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Areas affected...WV...northwestern VA...western MD...and far
southwest PA
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 020759Z - 021200Z
SUMMARY...Several hours of freezing rain are possible this morning
from WV into northwestern VA, western MD, and far southwest PA.
Highest freezing rain rates are expected along the Blue Ridge
Mountains.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a large precipitation
shield continuing to expand northeastward across WV into northwest
VA, western MD, and far southwest PA. Surface observations show
several sites in southwest WV are currently reporting freezing rain
while the sites north and east into more of eastern WV and adjacent
northwest VA and western MD are currently precipitation free.
Temperatures within the precipitation free zone are currently near
freezing, and the expectation is that temperatures will cool a
degree or two over the next free hours as the precipitation
continues to expand into the region. Recent KRLX imagery shows a
well-defined melting layer around 4 to 5 kft, suggesting that
freezing rain could be the predominant precipitation type for at
least a few hours. Some sleet could occur as well, but the
shallowness of the cold wedge should keep its occurrence isolated.
After an initial cool down with temperatures below freezing for at
least a few hours, temperatures should warm again from southwest to
northeast, with the primary precipitation type transitioning to a
rain/snow mix.
..Mosier.. 12/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 38428175 38948138 39638055 39937959 39977907 39677849
39117818 38647829 38287842 37857870 37707891 37337959
36998068 37198145 37548171 38428175
MD 2244 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Areas affected...the coastal Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 020714Z - 021115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Mini-supercells may eventually move ashore, affecting
primarily coastal counties of the Florida Panhandle. A brief tornado
cannot be ruled out later tonight.
DISCUSSION...Radar shows multiple small supercells over the
northeastern Gulf of America, ahead of a cold front and along a warm
front. The warm front is currently offshore as can be seen with
backed surface winds over land and temperatures in the 60s F.
Instability is currently weak, with minimal lightning detected even
with the offshore activity. Conditionally, weak tornadoes may still
occur assuming the warm front moves ashore.
Recent hourly pressure falls over 1 mb indicate good column warming
and likely erosion of the cooler air mass. Over the next few hours,
surface winds will gradually veer, with temperatures likely jumping
along the coast. Low-level shear will remain quite strong, again
with instability being the limiting factor. However, any supercells
that move onshore coincident with the warm front may result in
localized brief tornado risk over a limited amount of inland area.
..Jewell/Mosier.. 12/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30388653 30608620 30568581 30438497 30408437 30348416
29948418 29528501 29598536 29938555 30158590 30248608
30388653
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 2243 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Areas affected...western/northern Kentucky and adjacent portions of
the Ohio Valley
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 020310Z - 020915Z
SUMMARY...A narrow developing corridor of heavy snow rates around or
in excess of 1 inch per hour appears possible, spreading across
western through northern Kentucky between Midnight-4 AM EST (11 PM-3
AM CST).
DISCUSSION...Multiple speed maxima are embedded within a broad belt
of strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow now overspreading the
southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard. Around 500 mb, the
strongest of these is nosing east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau
through the lower Ohio Valley, accompanied by a focused area of
increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow which is forecast to
overspread much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley
late this evening into the overnight hours.
It appears that large-scale forcing for ascent will be aided by
lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which Rapid Refresh forecast
soundings indicate will contribute to a period of strong lift
maximizing in mid-levels, within a corridor near the Ohio River.
This is forecast to include a layer near/below 500 mb, where
saturating profiles with temperatures around -15 C will be most
conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.
Although lower-level temperatures across portions of western through
northern Kentucky are fluctuating a bit, from just above to below
freezing, cold advection to the northwest of a developing frontal
wave is expected to support snow or a transition to snow as heavier
precipitation commences. As precipitable water content increases to
0.6 to 0.7 + inches along the frontal zone, guidance suggests at
least a couple hour period of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2
inches per hour is possible, developing near or to the west/north of
Hopkinsville and Bowling Green before spreading toward areas
around/north/northeast of Lexington between 05-09Z.
..Kerr.. 12/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 39068358 38618257 37878387 37028611 36468814 36448918
37308815 38238585 39068358
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible mainly across the Florida
Panhandle this morning. The stronger storms will be capable of
producing locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.
...Synopsis...
A broad midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Ohio Valley
into the western Atlantic Ocean through the period. In the
low-levels, a frontal-wave low -- initially near the western FL
Panhandle -- will move eastward across northern FL while being
absorbed into a broad surface trough extending from the Carolinas
southwestward into northern FL during the late morning hours.
Thereafter, a coastal low will develop northward along the Eastern
Seaboard, while a related southward-extending cold front approaches
the western FL Peninsula during the afternoon/evening time frame.
...FL Panhandle...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing across the FL Panhandle at the start
of the period -- within a zone of surface convergence and low-level
warm advection preceding the frontal-wave low. Despite poor
deep-layer lapse rates, upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to
surface-based inflow for this activity as it spreads eastward across
northern FL through the morning hours. Around 40-50 kt of effective
shear and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will conditionally
support a couple transient supercell structures and small line
segments. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be
possible with the stronger storms that develop. The severe risk will
diminish from west to east as surface winds veer and the strongest
low-level mass response accompanying the midlevel trough shifts
northeastward into the afternoon hours.
Farther south, a strong storm or two may approach portions of the
western FL Peninsula ahead of the cold front during the late
morning/early afternoon hours -- aided by around 40 kt of effective
shear and weak surface-based buoyancy. However, this area will be
well removed from the deep-layer forcing for ascent, suggesting that
storms should be weakening as they approach coastal areas amid the
weak buoyancy.
...Outer Banks..
As the coastal low tracks northward along the Eastern Seaboard, the
surface-based warm sector should generally remain offshore -- where
ample PBL moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear will favor
supercells. Depending on the track of the surface low, a couple
strong storms may track northward close to the Outer Banks during
the morning, though confidence in storms impacting coastal areas is
too low to add severe-thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
..Weinman.. 12/02/2025
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