WW 594 SEVERE TSTM NE 180130Z - 180700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 594
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
830 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Northeast Nebraska
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 830 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Splitting supercells should continue to pose a threat for
large to very large hail this evening as they track generally
east-southeastward. The largest hailstones may reach up to 2-2.5
inches in diameter. Otherwise, a tornado appears possible in the
short term with any persistent right-moving supercell. A greater
potential for severe/damaging winds may eventually increase if a
cluster can develop upstream across northern Nebraska.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest
of Norfolk NE to 75 miles southwest of Norfolk NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...WW 591...WW
592...WW 593...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30030.
...Gleason
WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE ONL
TO 15 NE OFK.
..BUNTING..08/18/26
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC001-011-035-059-077-079-081-093-119-121-125-139-143-163-175-
185-180640-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOONE CLAY
FILLMORE GREELEY HALL
HAMILTON HOWARD MADISON
MERRICK NANCE PIERCE
POLK SHERMAN VALLEY
YORK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW RWF TO
15 S AXN TO 30 SSE DTL.
..SQUITIERI..08/18/26
ATTN...WFO...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC009-041-067-093-097-145-153-180340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON DOUGLAS KANDIYOHI
MEEKER MORRISON STEARNS
TODD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE LBF
TO 35 ENE MHN TO 45 SSW 9V9.
..SQUITIERI..08/18/26
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-015-017-041-071-089-103-115-149-183-180440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BOYD BROWN
CUSTER GARFIELD HOLT
KEYA PAHA LOUP ROCK
WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0591 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 591
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E MBG TO
15 WNW PIR TO 20 WNW PHP TO 55 SSW Y22.
..SQUITIERI..08/18/26
ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC031-041-055-117-137-180340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CORSON DEWEY HAAKON
STANLEY ZIEBACH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 2023 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 2023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594...
Valid 180624Z - 180730Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594
continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind and hail threat is likely to
continue after the scheduled 07z/2 am CDT expiration of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 594, and a local extension in time and area may
be needed for portions of the discussion area.
DISCUSSION...A compact cluster of strong/severe storms continues
over portions central NE at 0615z, with a recent report of a
measured 79 mph gust at Grand Island, NE. This cluster continues to
move southeast at 50 mph, and a severe wind risk will likely
continue through 07-08z given a favorable near-term downstream
environment. Thus a local extension in time and/or area may be
needed to cover this threat.
As low-level warm advection strengthens farther west, new
thunderstorm development is anticipated over central/south-central
NE within a steep mid-level lapse rate environment and modestly
strong mid-level flow. A localized wind and hail threat is expected
with this new development into the early morning hours, however the
overall coverage is expected to remain such that a new watch is not
currently expected.
..Bunting/Mosier.. 08/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40969856 41239741 41169713 40569701 40239714 40109838
40129925 40149984 40380015 40600037 40840037 41470021
41559957 40969856
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the
lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the Northern High Plains eastward into the Midwest and
southern Great Lakes.
...Central and Northern Plains...
At mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over
the northern U.S. A shortwave trough will move across the central
and northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward into Nebraska by afternoon. To the south of the front, an
outflow boundary from morning convection will move southward into
northern Kansas. A moist airmass will exist between the two
boundaries with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F.
Within the moist air, moderate to strong instability will develop by
afternoon. The outflow boundary will be a focus for convective
initiation during the day, while additional storms are expected to
develop further west across the central High Plains in the late
afternoon. Increasing convective coverage during the early evening
should result in the development of a line segment.
RAP forecast soundings at 00Z from Salina to Kansas City have MLCAPE
in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots.
700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range.
This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail.
The large hail threat will extend west-northwestward into southwest
Nebraska during the late afternoon where mid-level lapse rates will
be steeper and cells will likely remain discrete. The greatest
wind-damage potential is forecast from northern and eastern Kansas
into far western Missouri, where the development of an organized
bowing line segment will be possible in the early evening. Wind
gusts above 75 mph will be possible along the path of any intense
line segment. The severe threat may impact parts of lower Missouri
Valley and Ozarks by mid to late evening.
...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S.
today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Midwest and
Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s
F will contribute to moderate instability along an
west-northwest-to-east-northeast axis from the mid Mississippi
Valley into the southern Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms appear likely to form along and south of the front in
the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000
J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and precipitable water in
the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range will be favorable for isolated severe
storms capable of severe wet downbursts.
...Northern High Plains...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the
Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains. At the surface,
dewpoints along the moist axis from northeastern Wyoming into
central Montana will be around 50 F. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, MLCAPE is expected to increase to around 1000 J/kg
in parts of the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to
form in the higher terrain in the afternoon, moving
east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Due to the instability
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible with the stronger cells.
..Broyles/Jirak.. 08/18/2026
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and strong
to severe wind gusts from the central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi
Valley and Ozarks. The greatest risk area is from the Ozarks into
the Lower Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening.
...Southern MO...Northern AR...Western KY/TN...Southern IL...
Gradual height falls will occur throughout the period as a
low-amplitude shortwave trough moves out of the Plains and toward
Mid MS/OH Valleys. Early day thunderstorms may be ongoing from MO
into the Lower OH Valley, but perhaps not particularly strong.
Behind this initial activity, strong instability will redevelop from
MO into northern AR, and western KY/TN with southwest low-level
winds and 70s F dewpoints near a southward moving front over
southern MO. Predictability is a bit low for the boundary position,
but storms may form anywhere from I-70 southward into northern AR
during the late afternoon, moving east/southeast during the evening.
Corridors of damaging wind and hail will be possible, with any brief
tornado chances depending on earlier outflows which may enhance
low-level shear.
...Central and Northern Plains...
A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Mid
MS Valley on Wednesday, with 40 kt northwest flow at 500 mb across
much of the central Plains. Although a front will push south across
OK and the TX Panhandle, low-level moisture with 50s to 60s F
dewpoints will remain beneath this upper trough, and strong heating
will lead to clusters of storms within a weak surface trough/wind
shift by late afternoon. Favored areas will be from SD into NE where
temperatures aloft will be cold and counteract the lack of low-level
moisture, and from the Front Range southward into northeast NM.
Scattered hail over 1.00" or locally severe gusts will be possible
through early evening as storms travel southeastward out of the High
Plains and across SD, NE and KS.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
Heights with the western ridge will rise again today, with warming
temperatures and dry conditions across much of the Pacific
Northwest. Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a shortwave
passage will bring breezy conditions to areas east of the Cascades.
Dry and breezy conditions will also be possible south of a frontal
boundary across western Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle.
...Portions of the Columbia Basin...
A split flow regime aloft will induce west-northwesterly flow over
Washington, and southwest-westerly flow over Oregon. Combined with
lee surface troughing, wind speeds will increase across the Cascade
Gaps. West-northwesterly surface winds of around 10-15 mph will
encompass a broad area of the Columbia Basin, with stronger winds of
20-30 mph within the gaps. At peak heating, relative humidity values
will decline to around 15-20 percent. Broadly elevated fire weather
conditions are expected in the lee of the Cascades, with locally
critical conditions possible.
...Southern Plains...
Drought conditions are prominent across much of the region,
expanding from the Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma to
produce a stressed fuel environment. Breezy and dry conditions are
expected near the surface trough across the Texas Panhandle into
western Oklahoma. Profiles will be deeply mixed, with temperatures
approaching the 100s F again this afternoon. This will support
afternoon relative humidity values of 10-15% amid southwest winds of
15-20 mph, maintaining an Elevated risk area.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will expand farther into the Intermountain West on Day
2/Wednesday, supporting hot and dry conditions amid generally
lighter winds. Deeper monsoonal moisture will remain embedded within
the Desert Southwest, but residual mid-level moisture in the Great
Basin could support a few isolated showers in the higher terrain. In
the southern Plains, a weak frontal boundary will sag into the Texas
Panhandle and Oklahoma throughout the day. Models vary on the timing
of the front, and progression will largely depend upon thunderstorm
outflow across southwestern Kansas on Day 1/Tuesday
evening/overnight. Nevertheless, a deeply mixed profile will lead to
another day of high temperatures in the 100s F and RH values of
15-20% ahead of the front, promoting locally elevated fire weather
concerns amid a drought stressed fuelscape.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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