WW 70 TORNADO FL GA CW 161730Z - 170000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 70
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
North Florida
Extreme southeast Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...New storms are forming in the warm sector across north
Florida, and a separate band of storms over the northeast Gulf will
move inland through the afternoon. The storm environment favors the
potential for a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and
supercells ahead of the line, as well as occasional damaging gusts
(60-70 mph) and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Brunswick GA
to 80 miles southwest of Ocala FL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 65...WW 66...WW 67...WW
68...WW 69...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
...Thompson
WW 69 TORNADO NC SC CW 161720Z - 170000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 69
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern North Carolina
Northeast South Carolina
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Clusters and band of storms are expected to intensify and
spread northeastward this afternoon/evening while the environment
becomes more favorable for both damaging gusts up to 75 mph and
tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong (EF2+).
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Elizabeth City NC
to 30 miles south southeast of Myrtle Beach SC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 65...WW 66...WW 67...WW
68...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22045.
...Thompson
WW 68 TORNADO DE MD NJ PA CW 161530Z - 162300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 68
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Delaware
Eastern Maryland
New Jersey
Southeast Pennsylvania
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1130 AM until
700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Pre-frontal bands of storms will spread northeastward from
Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania through the afternoon, with an
attendant threat for swaths of damaging winds (60-80 mph) and a few
tornadoes with embedded circulations. A couple of strong tornadoes
(EF2) will be possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Allentown PA to
35 miles west of Wilmington DE. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 65...WW 66...WW 67...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 22045.
...Thompson
WW 67 TORNADO DC MD NC VA WV CW 161450Z - 162300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 67
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Maryland
Northeast North Carolina
Eastern Virginia
The eastern West Virginia Panhandle
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1050 AM until
700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Several bands and clusters of storms are expected to
intensify through the afternoon, with the potential to produce
swaths of damaging winds, some significant (75-85 mph), and embedded
circulations will pose a threat for several tornadoes, some of which
could be strong (EF2+).
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Baltimore MD to 55
miles west southwest of Norfolk VA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...WW 65...WW 66...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Thompson
WW 0070 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HLG
TO 30 SSE LBE TO 20 N AOO.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12/00Z.
..KERR..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC001-005-013-021-023-025-027-031-043-510-120000-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY BALTIMORE CARROLL
FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD
HOWARD MONTGOMERY WASHINGTON
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
PAC001-009-013-037-041-043-051-055-057-059-061-067-071-075-087-
093-097-099-107-109-111-133-120000-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WW 0069 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 69
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LYONS..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...RAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 69
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-017-019-031-047-049-051-055-061-065-069-079-083-085-095-
101-103-107-117-127-129-133-137-141-147-155-163-177-183-185-187-
191-195-161940-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK
CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN
EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GREENE
HALIFAX HARNETT HYDE
JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR
MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER
ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER
PITT ROBESON SAMPSON
TYRRELL WAKE WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON
SCC033-041-043-051-067-089-161940-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DILLON FLORENCE GEORGETOWN
WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N BWI TO
20 SE CXY TO 25 ENE CXY TO 45 NE CXY TO 10 NW AVP.
..BENTLEY..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-005-162040-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
MDC011-029-035-041-162040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S
TALBOT
NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-
041-162040-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN
CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER
WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW AVC TO
15 WSW RIC TO 30 SSE DCA TO 5 SW BWI TO 30 NNE BWI TO 25 SE CXY.
..BENTLEY..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 67
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC003-009-015-019-025-033-037-039-045-047-510-162040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CECIL
DORCHESTER HARFORD PRINCE GEORGES
ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO
WORCESTER
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-162040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD
NORTHAMPTON PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CLT TO
30 WNW SOP TO 20 WNW DAN TO 30 W SHD.
..LYONS..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 66
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC001-033-037-051-063-077-085-093-105-125-135-145-153-165-181-
183-161740-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE CASWELL CHATHAM
CUMBERLAND DURHAM GRANVILLE
HARNETT HOKE LEE
MOORE ORANGE PERSON
RICHMOND SCOTLAND VANCE
WAKE
VAC009-011-019-029-031-037-083-143-590-680-161740-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD
BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE
HALIFAX PITTSYLVANIA
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
WW 0065 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 65
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW AAF TO
30 W TLH TO 15 WNW MGR TO 55 SSE MCN TO 30 WSW VDI TO 40 N VDI TO
20 ESE AGS TO 10 S CAE TO 50 NE CAE TO 50 SE CLT.
..LYONS..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS...CAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 65
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC023-029-037-039-041-047-065-067-073-077-079-121-123-129-
161640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA DIXIE FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GILCHRIST HAMILTON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON SUWANNEE
TAYLOR WAKULLA
GAC001-003-005-017-019-025-027-029-031-043-051-065-069-071-075-
101-103-109-131-155-161-165-173-179-183-185-191-229-251-267-275-
277-299-305-321-161640-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BEN HILL BERRIEN BRANTLEY
BROOKS BRYAN BULLOCH
CANDLER CHATHAM CLINCH
WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW AGS
TO 40 WNW CAE TO 30 S CLT TO 40 NNE CLT TO 30 WNW GSO TO 25 NNE
ROA.
..LYONS..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...GSP...CAE...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC181-161540-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LINCOLN
NCC003-025-059-119-159-179-161540-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER CABARRUS DAVIE
MECKLENBURG ROWAN UNION
SCC023-037-039-057-071-081-091-161540-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER EDGEFIELD FAIRFIELD
LANCASTER NEWBERRY SALUDA
MD 0278 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 69... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeastern South Carolina into
central and eastern North Carolina.
Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...
Valid 161919Z - 162115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes continues across
WW69.
DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, strong thunderstorms were ongoing
within a loosely organized convective band from east-central NC to
coastal SC. Thus far, numerous storm interactions and weak buoyancy
(~500 J/kg MLCAPE 18z MHX Sounding) have limited storm organization.
Numerous, but transient, low-level mesocyclones have been observed
with embedded convective element this afternoon. Kinematics remain
quite strong with 0-1 km shear of 40+ kts. This will continue to
pose a risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes with any stronger
mesocyclones able to become established.
Some clearing as been noted to the west of the primary cluster over
central NC. As large-scale ascent from the upper trough moves
overhead this afternoon, additional storm development is possible
ahead of the cold front. Storm mode is likely to remain mixed/messy
with clusters and line segments. Still, the very strong low-level
wind fields will support a continued risk for damaging gusts and
tornadoes across WW69 this afternoon.
..Lyons.. 03/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 33597958 35527822 36557751 36607597 36327548 35807529
35427531 34987570 34637633 34157739 33897775 33677806
33317878 33207896 33147922 33207941 33597958
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0277 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 67... FOR THE DELMARVA INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Areas affected...the DelMarVa into southeast Pennsylvania and New
Jersey
Concerning...Tornado Watch 67...
Valid 161914Z - 162045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 67 continues.
SUMMARY...Some damaging wind and brief tornado threat will persist
through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A line of convection (with minimal lightning) continues
from northern Virginia to south-central Pennsylvania. This line has
had sporadic damaging wind reports and perhaps a tornado or two this
morning into the early afternoon. Weak instability ahead of this
line may maintain some isolated damaging wind/isolated tornado
threat through the afternoon. The tornado watch will be cancelled in
the wake of this line of storms. Some threat for damaging convective
winds with the front this evening still persists, but will be
handled with an additional watch later this evening if necessary.
..Bentley.. 03/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39127685 39597669 39947654 40527618 40807596 40917557
41047497 40767451 40327405 39287435 38837521 38337599
38217663 38247709 39127685
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 0276 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 67...69... FOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Areas affected...southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina
Concerning...Tornado Watch 67...69...
Valid 161800Z - 161930Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 67, 69 continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat within watch 67 and the
northern portion of watch 69 will be across southeast Virginia and
northeast North Carolina over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Within a broader environment that has been mostly
convectively overturned, a more favorable zone remains across
northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Temperatures are in
the upper 60s to low 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This yields
around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis. The AKQ VWP shows
around 55 knots of deep-layer shear with mid-level flow continuing
to strengthen through the afternoon.
With somewhat more favorable thermodynamics in this zone, a few
supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or
two are possible.
..Bentley/Thompson.. 03/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
LAT...LON 36507810 37007808 37607737 37637654 37217603 36687572
36207555 35937583 35927681 35927773 36087810 36507810
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
...Outbreak of severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid
Atlantic States this afternoon...
* LOCATIONS...
Eastern Virginia
Eastern North Carolina
Maryland
A small part of northeast South Carolina
District of Columbia
* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few tornadoes, a couple strong
* SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield
potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few
strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic
States.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
..Thompson.. 03/16/2026
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...WASHINGTON D.C. AND
MARYLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield
potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few
strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic States.
...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Large-scale outflow from ongoing broken linear bands along with a
separate swath of convection with the low-level warm conveyor have
greatly hampered the amplitude of diurnal destabilization across the
Carolinas to the DE Valley. Primary severe threat should remain with
the pre-frontal linear bands as they spread east-northeast this
afternoon. Some intensification may yet occur across eastern
SC/southern NC within pockets of low 70s surface temperatures. See
MCDs 272-273 for additional storm-term discussion.
Farther north, a pre-frontal low-topped convective line is evolving
across central PA. This should be the primary driver of afternoon
severe potential northeastward into parts of NY as mid 50s to low
60s surface dew points remain prevalent just ahead of this line.
Within a deeply meridional wind profile, damaging winds and embedded
tornadoes will be the main hazards. This activity should remain
spatially confined by a lack of downstream boundary-layer
destabilization over eastern NY into New England.
In the wake of this leading activity, a second round of low-topped
convection will likely reform east of the Blue Ridge into the
Piedmont towards late afternoon/early evening. Prior overturning and
persistent cloud coverage should mitigate appreciable boundary-layer
destabilization. However, robust large-scale ascent and intensifying
lower-level winds will accompany the ejection of a 100+ kt 500-mb
jetlet within the basal shortwave trough. This should yield a
renewed threat for damaging winds accompanying the fast-moving line.
Even with meager buoyancy, another round of sporadic severe gusts
should occur from NC/VA to the Chesapeake Bay/DE Valley vicinity
through this evening.
...GA/FL...
Moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg will
persist through the afternoon ahead of southwest/northeast-oriented
convection. With large-scale ascent, outside of low-level
convergence, becoming more focused to the north of this region,
there is uncertainty on how far south an organized line will persist
in the FL Peninsula. Primary severe threat should remain through
mid-afternoon, with a generalized waning in southern extent this
evening.
..Grams/Lyons.. 03/16/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.
...Discussion...
With the trailing portion of a cold front expected to have exited
the Eastern Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday, any lingering deep convection
near the front should be relegated to the FL Straits during the mid
to late morning. An expansive surface anticyclone, initially
centered over far southeast TX/Lower Sabine Valley vicinity, will
maintain a pervasive continental air mass across the northern Gulf.
Conditions will be too hostile for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.
..Grams.. 03/16/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period. One exception may be near the
far southern FL Peninsula and Keys as the prior cold front intrusion
on D1-2 stalls near the FL Straits. While some airmass modification
will occur north of the boundary over offshore waters, thunderstorm
potential on land appears negligible through Wednesday night.
..Grams.. 03/16/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS
COAST...
As a potent cold front traverses the region today, extensive
mid-to-high level cloud cover is expected to limit diurnal heating
across much of the southern Plains Elevated risk area. The Critical
risk area across southern coastal Texas will remain largely clear of
cloud debris until late afternoon, allowing for maximum insolation
and fuel drying.
While guidance suggests localized near-critical conditions farther
north into central Texas and Oklahoma, driven by strong
northwesterly flow aloft, the threat is tempered by a significant
drop in temperatures to 10-20 degrees below normal and the
aforementioned shading. However, the pressure gradient remains
tight; a corridor of sustained northwest surface winds of 15-20 mph,
coupled with RH values of 15-20%, warrants an expansion of the
Elevated area. This expansion now includes central Oklahoma,
northeast Texas, and a westward shift into portions of central Texas
to account for the overlap of wind and low-level moisture recovery
lags. All other outlook areas remain unchanged.
..Stearns/Williams.. 03/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry, post frontal northerly flow will overspread the southern Plains
this afternoon bringing a period of Elevated to Critical fire
weather concerns across eastern New Mexico/far west Texas and from
central Oklahoma to the middle and lower Texas Coast.
...New Mexico and far west Texas...
Dry southeasterly return flow around 15-20 mph will overlap relative
humidity reductions to 15-20 percent across portions of eastern New
Mexico into far western Texas this afternoon. Fuels within this
region remain critically dry and multiple days of windy/dry
conditions and will support maintaining an Elevated area.
...South Central Oklahoma to the Lower Texas Coast...
As the cold front shifts offshore, dry northerly flow will
overspread an area from south-central Oklahoma down to the
middle/lower Texas coast. The driest conditions are expected across
the lower Texas coast, where a Critical was maintained with this
outlook. Relative humidity around 10-15% will overlap north to
northeast winds 15-20 mph across this region. This in addition to
dry fuels will support increased fire spread potential. Confidence
has increase that Elevated conditions will extend across the middle
Texas coast and north into south-central Oklahoma, which was added
with this outlook as several new fires emerged across this region on
Sunday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
The Elevated area over the southern Plains was adjusted slightly
eastward to align with the latest forecast guidance. Locally
critical conditions will be possible over portions of the Texas
Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma during the Day 2/Tuesday time
frame. Additionally, this lack of moisture recovery will effectively
extend the burn period and pre-condition fuels prior to the arrival
of the strongest synoptic winds on Day 2/Tuesday afternoon.
Farther west and north, an additional Elevated fire weather area has
been introduced across north-central New Mexico, the eastern
Colorado plains, and adjacent segments of the central High Plains.
This region will experience sustained west-to-northwest winds near
15-20 mph with RHs of 15-20%. While northern portions of this risk
area may struggle to meet strict RH thresholds, the proximity to the
upper-level jet suggests these areas will see the highest wind
magnitudes, likely compensating for the marginal humidity.
..Stearns/Williams.. 03/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
A period of Elevated fire weather concerns will return on D2/Tuesday
across the southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the
northern/central Rockies, with lee troughing strengthening across
the northern/central High Plains. Strengthening southwest winds will
extend into the Southern Plains where a residual dry air mass will
promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west
TX and western OK. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20%
will overlap sustained south southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. A
corridor of near Critical to Critical conditions may be possible
within this broader Elevated. For now, confidence in coverage of
critical winds is too low to include an area at this time, given low
combined probabilities from ensemble guidance from the HREF.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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