No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 14 21:45:02 UTC 2026.MD 2455 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142142Z - 142315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of stronger storms may produce marginally severe
hail. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts deepening
thunderstorm updrafts, with NLDN data showing an increase in
lightning along a surface differential heating zone across eastern
NM into the TX Panhandle. A 500 mb jet max over central NM is now
approaching the NM/TX border area from the northwest, resulting in
both increased deep-layer ascent and the eastward advection of
cooler temperatures aloft. As a plume of 7 C/km mid-level lapse
rates continues to overspread a marginally heated/moistened boundary
layer, buoyancy should increase further, with up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE
potentially realized in spots. Despite the meager buoyancy, the
approach of the aforementioned mid-level jet max should increase
speed shear, with over 50 kts of effective bulk shear/elongated
hodographs expected.
Some supercell structures will be possible, capable of producing
isolated bouts of marginally severe hail. The best chance for severe
hail will be with any supercells that can traverse the baroclinic
boundary. Given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a
WW issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35590466 35130328 33570083 33020069 32550090 32350124
32460197 32750247 34000449 34390477 34730486 35590466
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms capable of hail are possible this
afternoon and evening over a small part of West Texas.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and minimal changes were needed with
this update. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in
coverage and intensity along/north of a stationary front draped
across the TX South Plains this afternoon -- aided by ascent in the
left exit region of an approaching mid/upper-level jet streak
(evident in WV imagery). The latest high-resolution guidance shows
the onset of this activity between 22-01Z, and persisting into
tonight. Given the expectation for storms to be mostly elevated atop
the frontal surface, hail remains the primary concern.
..Weinman.. 11/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026/
...West TX...
A shortwave trough over central NM this morning will track eastward
into west TX this afternoon. As this occurs, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop across eastern NM/west TX in a marginally
unstable air mass. Visible satellite imagery continues to show
considerable cloud cover, suggesting convection will likely be
elevated. Nevertheless, steep mid level lapse rates, cold
temperatures aloft, and strong deep layer shear will support
occasional supercell structures capable of hail - mainly in the
Lubbock vicinity. A consensus of morning CAMS and ML guidance also
agree on this limited threat. Therefore have opted for a small MRGL
risk area for this afternoon and early evening.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central
and south Texas.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will advance across portions of the southern
Plains on Sunday, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading
portions of western and southern/coastal Texas. A surface low will
shift eastward across the southern Texas Panhandle into central
Texas, with a cold front shifting southward through the period.
Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing along and
ahead of the advancing front, with a few strong to severe
thunderstorms possible. Additional thunderstorm activity will
develop with a deepening trough across the western US, though this
is not expected to be severe.
...Central and Southern TX...
Guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorm activity will be
ongoing at the start of the period near the surface low and frontal
boundary extending from central Texas to the middle/upper Texas
coast. Forcing for ascent and warm air advection will lead to a
gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage with daytime heating. A
narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop
across far south-central Texas to the middle Texas coast, with
sufficiently strong deep layer shear to support stronger cores and
perhaps transient supercells. Forecast soundings depict modest
low-level clockwise curvature in the 0-1 km layer, which could
support a brief tornado given 60 F dew points. The main hazards will
likely be marginally severe hail and damaging wind.
As the front shifts southward with time, instability will become
displaced southward with severe potential decreasing and becoming
primarily offshore into the late afternoon/evening. Mode will likely
become more linear, posing some increase in damaging wind potential
before storms gradually shift offshore. Elevated buoyancy may linger
behind the effective front into the overnight hours with a low-end
risk for hail with the remaining storms.
..Halbert-E.. 11/14/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast over the US Monday.
...Synopsis...
A trough will deepen across the western US coast on D3/Monday.
Shower activity will be expected along an eastward moving cold front
from the Great Basin to the Intermountain West. Generally poor
thermodynamic profiles will limit thunder potential. Heights will
rise across the central US as a mid-level ridge increases in
strength. A surface high will strengthen across the Ohio Valley,
strengthening surface pressure gradients and reinforcing offshore
flow over much of the US, limiting available surface moisture. A
cold front will shift offshore into the Gulf early in the period,
further limiting moisture and thunderstorm potential inland. A few
post frontal showers will remain along the Texas coast into
Louisiana. Overall, thunderstorms are not forecast over the US
Monday.
..Halbert-E.. 11/14/2026
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