Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low through the remainder of
tonight.

...01Z Update...
Convection associated with a strong cold front has generally
weakened or moved offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England this evening. Sporadic thunderstorm activity could persist
through the remainder of the evening across these areas, though the
generally post-frontal nature of the remaining convection should
limit severe potential. Otherwise, ongoing storms across the FL
Peninsula should generally weaken through the evening, though some
storm potential may persist overnight across the FL Keys and
near-coastal areas.

..Dean.. 10/17/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

...Synopsis...
The upper pattern will remain fairly stagnant across the CONUS
through early next week. Upper ridging will continue over the
central U.S. as a cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coast
through Day 5/Tuesday. High pressure will build over the western
Gulf coast, promoting warm and dry conditions where fuels are
growing increasingly more receptive in the lower MS River Valley.
However, lighter prevailing winds should keep fire weather concerns
low.

Farther west, an upper trough will impinge upon the Pacific
Northwest on Day 4/Monday, increasing southwesterly flow over the
Great Basin. Upper troughing will amplify as it digs into the Desert
Southwest mid-week, potentially ejecting into the Great Plains by
Day 7/Thursday. This pattern is expected to bring additional
precipitation and generally unsettled conditions to much of the
Intermountain West. 

...Day 4/Monday - Northeastern California and Northwest Great
Basin...
A robust mid/upper trough is expected to bring enhanced
southwesterly flow back into the western U.S. by early next week.
Dry and breezy conditions in advance of the trough will promote an
increasing fire weather threat over northeastern CA, far
southeastern OR and northwestern NV on Day 4/Monday where fuels
remain dry in the absence of recent precipitation. Thus, 40%
critical probabilities have been maintained across the region.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...