Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches
in diameter), tornadoes, and scattered damaging winds are expected
late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern
Plains and ArkLaTex. A couple of strong tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over Manitoba and
Saskatchewan today, while generally zonal/westerly mid-level winds
persist over the southern Plains. A weak shortwave trough over the
Southwest/southern Rockies this morning is forecast to eject
eastward over the southern/central Plains by late this afternoon. At
the surface, a convectively reinforced outflow boundary draped
across north-central/northeast TX will shift northward into OK as a
warm front today, while a low gradually deepens over northwest TX by
late afternoon/early evening. Rich low-level moisture characterized
by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints will likely advance as far
north as central into southeast OK through peak diurnal heating,
with lesser moisture return farther north into northwest OK, KS, and
southeast NE ahead of a cold front. A dryline will extend
south-southwestward from the surface low across central into
south-central TX.

...Southern/Central Plains into the ArkLaTex...
Strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE 2500-4000+ J/kg) is
expected to develop along/east of the dryline in TX and south of the
warm front in OK by peak afternoon heating. The presence of
seasonably cool temperatures aloft and 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse
rates will also support this very favorable thermodynamic
environment. While large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting
mid-level shortwave trough is not expected to be overly robust, it
should be sufficient for at least isolated thunderstorm initiation
by mid afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z), especially near
the warm front/dryline intersection in south-central OK.

40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support
intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits likely. This
activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation,
and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in
diameter). The Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas have been expanded
slightly in OK and north TX to account for deviant thunderstorm
motions and the potential for multiple intense supercells to track
east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional risk for
supercells remains apparent farther south along the length of the
dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation remains
low. Have maintained the Marginal Risk for this potential, with some
expansion eastward in case isolated thunderstorms do initiate.

Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be
present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally
enhanced 0-1 km SRH will be present near the warm front with backed
near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with
any right-split supercells that can remain surface based. A slight
increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very
strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a
couple of EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may
grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds
as it spreads southeastward into the ArkLaTex.

Farther north in KS/NE, instability and low-level moisture is
expected to remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small
clusters may eventually develop this afternoon and move
east-northeastward given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft
organization. Isolated to scattered severe hail and damaging winds
should be the main threat with this activity through mid evening
before it eventually weakens.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
A long-lived convective cluster has nearly moved offshore from the
coast of AL/MS/LA. In its wake, a rain-cooled airmass exists across
much of the lower MS Valley. This should hinder the development of
much surface-based instability through early afternoon. Still,
eventual re-destabilization should occur along/near the remnant
outflow boundary. Isolated cells that may develop could pose some
risk for hail and damaging winds.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/25/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches
in diameter), tornadoes, and scattered damaging winds are expected
late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern
Plains and ArkLaTex. A couple of strong tornadoes are possible.

...Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
While stratus remains semi-prevalent this morning along/north of the
near-stationary front, strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE
2500-4000+ J/kg) is expected to develop along/east of the dryline in
Texas and Red River-vicinity triple point, and to the south of
slow-northward-shifting warm front in Oklahoma by peak afternoon
heating. The presence of seasonably cool temperatures aloft and
7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will also support this very
unstable thermodynamic environment. While large-scale ascent
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough is not
expected to be overly robust, the arrival of a shortwave
trough/mid-level speed max will be favorably timed atop the warm
sector. At least widely scattered thunderstorm initiation is
expected by mid/late afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z),
especially near the warm front/dryline intersection and a bit north
across south-central/east-central Oklahoma.

40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support
intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits expected. This
activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation,
and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in
diameter). The potential exists for multiple intense supercells to
track east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional
risk for supercells remains apparent farther south along the length
of the dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation
remains low, but at least isolated but intense deep convective
development is plausible, especially in closer proximity to the
surface triple point across North Texas. 

Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be
present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally
enhanced 0-1 km SRH will exist near the warm front with backed
near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with
any right-split supercells that remain surface based. A slight
increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very
strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a
few EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may
grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds
as storm clusters move southeastward across the Red River toward and
across the ArkLaTex.

...Central Plains including Kansas/Nebraska...
Farther north, instability and low-level moisture is expected to
remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small clusters are
expected to develop this afternoon and move east-northeastward given
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated to
scattered severe hail and damaging winds should be the main threat
with this activity through mid-evening before eventually weakening.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast...
Strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later today as outflow
modifies in the wake of the early morning MCS, with the potential
that additional storms, potentially in the form of another MCS,
approach the region from the northwest late tonight.

..Guyer/Barnes.. 04/25/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN
KANSAS...WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce
large/very-large hail severe/damaging winds and a couple of strong
tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the
central and southern Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains late Saturday.
A surface low develop in western/central Kansas. A dryline will
drape south and westward into Oklahoma and Texas. A warm front will
be situated within parts of the mid-Missouri/mid-Mississippi
Valleys.

...Central Plains into mid-Missouri Valley...
Uncertainty remains in the exact evolution of convection across the
central Plains and mid-Missouri Valley. While stronger mid-level
ascent is expected this far north, the timing of the shortwave
trough will likely be after 00Z. Outflow from convection on Saturday
will play a role in where severe convection eventually develops. Two
zones are currently evident in model guidance. One will be along
potential outflow near the KS/MO border into southeast NE where a
weak surface low could develop. The triple point and main surface
low in western/central KS will be the other. Some guidance shows
warm advection storms spreading northeastward early Sunday which
would complicate the forecast for the mid-Missouri Valley. There is
modestly higher confidence in storms developing near the main
surface low/triple point. Effective shear will be greater than 50
kt, strong buoyancy of greater than 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, and steep
mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk for large/very-large hail
with initial supercells. The tornado risk will likely be maximized
near the triple point, but how long the greater threat lasts depends
on speed of upscale growth. With time, one or more clusters/linear
segments are expected to move eastward and lead to a greater
severe/damaging wind threat. The southern extent of this potential
remains uncertain as most guidance has suggested this activity will
be farther north, more closely tied to the ejecting shortwave
trough.

...Oklahoma...
The level of severe risk will be highly dependent upon what occurs
Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Outflow from this activity has
the potential to limit destabilization across at least portions of
central/eastern Oklahoma. This could potentially leave a fairly
narrow corridor near the dryline where inhibition would be
minimized. That said, the large-scale ascent will be nebulous at
best and overcoming the cap will largely be dependent on strong
heating along the dryline. The nose of the mid-level jet will move
into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma by late afternoon. Locally
stronger convergence along the dryline may be enough to initiate an
isolated storm or two. This scenario remains quite uncertain as
guidance uniformly does not convect along the dryline. Given greater
than 50 kt deep-layer shear perpendicular to the dryline, steep
mid-level lapse rates, and strong low-level shear (especially during
the evening), storms would be capable of all severe hazards --
including very-large hail and a strong tornado -- should they
develop.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
A remnant MCV from convection on Saturday in OK/northeast Texas will
likely move southeastward during the day. Moderate mid,
northwesterly mid-level winds will allow for some continued storm
organization. The main question will be how much destabilization
will occur ahead of this feature. Furthermore, weakening 850 mb
winds will have to overcome by cold pool organization. At least
isolated wind damage and large hail would be possible.

...Northwest Texas into Edwards Plateau/Hill Country...
Storm initiation along the dryline is not certain given the lack of
forcing aloft. However, strong heating could promote isolated
development. Shear would be sufficient for supercells and steep
lapse rates through the middle troposphere would promote a threat
for large/very-large hail as well as severe winds.

..Wendt.. 04/25/2026