Mesoscale Discussion 0633
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana into extreme
southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011707Z - 011900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across
much of southern Louisiana. A couple of stronger storms may bring
some potential for isolated severe hazards, including marginally
severe hail, severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado, to portions of
southeastern Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts ongoing
thunderstorms along/south of the Louisiana coastline, with a
stronger core currently noted south of Vermilion Parish, ahead of a
subtle (and potentially convectively-enhanced) mid-level
perturbation analyzed over eastern Texas. This convection is located
in close proximity to the analyzed location of a surface stationary
front, with latest mesoanalysis depicting 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE south
of this boundary, with little buoyancy to its north. Strong
mid/upper level flow (60+ kts at 5 km AGL per the HDC VWP) and
effective bulk shear of 60+ kts will support the potential for
supercell structures, with Bunker's motion favoring right-moving
supercell tracks along/parallel to the surface boundary. While weak
available buoyancy and marginal mid-level lapse rates (evident in
the 12z LIX observed sounding) are likely to limit the overall
severe potential, isolated marginally severe hail and strong wind
gusts (likely within the 40-50 mph range) are possible with stronger
cores that come onshore and/or persist on the cool side of the
boundary.

A brief tornado/waterspout may also be possible, especially along
and south of the surface boundary where organized storms may better
realize surface-based buoyancy. A gradual strengthening of low-level
southerly flow is anticipated with time later this afternoon/evening
ahead of a developing surface cyclone, and this should promote at
least some increase in low-level hodograph curvature and associated
tornado risk with time. Despite this, low-level shear is forecast to
remain modest at best. When coupled with the aforementioned
marginally-favorable thermodynamic environment, this is expected to
limit the overall severe threat. Trends will continue to be
monitored, but watch issuance is not expected at this time.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 05/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29169149 29299180 29499185 29769123 29969031 30088919
            30058873 29938856 29058897 28868921 28858976 29009074
            29169149 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Mesoscale Discussion 0632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Areas affected...south-central Texas to upper Texas Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011549Z - 011745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail (1.0-1.5"
in diameter) will be possible with training, elevated thunderstorms
from late morning into this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a vigorous, short-wave trough moving through
far west TX, clusters of elevated thunderstorms are ongoing from
portions of the Edwards Plateau east into the TX coastal plain. Warm
advection within the 2-4-km layer (per regional VWPs) coupled with
increased DCVA downstream from the approaching trough are likely to
sustain clusters of thunderstorms within the same general corridor
through this afternoon.

12z observed soundings and more recent, RAP-based sounding data
indicate that poor mid-level lapse rates at the latitude of the
ongoing storms are limiting parcel buoyancy despite a moist,
low-level air mass, with MUCAPE estimated in the 500 to perhaps 1000
J/kg range. However, deep-layer shear remains strong across the
discussion area, which is contributing to some observed, mid-level
rotation in the strongest storms. As such, the potential will exist
for isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail (1.0-1.5" in
diameter) with any more sustained, supercell structures. A locally
strong wind gust or two cannot be ruled out with any more intense
downdrafts that can penetrate the stable, near-surface layer.

Given the expected limited areal coverage and marginal nature of the
severe weather threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not currently
expected.

..Mead.. 05/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28440047 29240085 29959663 30139525 29949457 29399436
            29059465 28509551 28269677 28099787 27929994 28440047 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas,
and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early morning satellite imagery shows several shortwave troughs,
including one within the southern stream over northern Mexico and
another moving into Ohio Valley within the base of a large cyclone
centered over the northern Ontario/Quebec border vicinity. Recent
surface analysis places a weak front from Deep South Texas
northeastward through the western Gulf and central Plaquemines
Parish, continuing through the north-central Gulf and across
northern Florida. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently
ongoing north of the front and downstream of the northern Mexico
shortwave from the Texas Hill County eastward to the Upper Texas
Coast. 

Thermodynamic conditions across these region are expected to remain
largely unchanged throughout much of the day, with modest elevated
instability persisting amid the moist southwesterly mid-level flow.
Some modest increase in the mid-level flow is anticipated as the
shortwave trough continues eastward through TX and into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. An attendant increase in large-scale ascent is
expected as well. Resulting increase in the deep-layer shear could
result in slightly more organized storm structures and greater
overall storm intensity this afternoon despite numerous preceding
showers and thunderstorms, and little change in the overall
thermodynamics. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks
with the strongest storms.

A surface low is expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough
over the western Gulf, before then tracking quickly northeastward as
the shortwave continues eastward. This low will likely be just off
the Deep South Texas Coast by 00Z Saturday, and off of southern 
Plaquemines Parish by 06Z. Elevated thunderstorms are expected
across the Lower MS Valley amid a combination of warm-air advection
and large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave. The strongest storms
may be capable of producing small hail. The surface low may also
track far enough north for the warm sector to advect into the
near-coastal regions of southeast Louisiana, far southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western/central Florida
Panhandle. If this occurs, surface-based storms could develop,
enhancing the potential for damaging gusts as well as introducing a
low-probability tornado risk.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/01/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE UPPER COAST OF TEXAS...AND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas,
and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving east across Far West TX and Chihuahua.  This upper
feature will move quickly east and weaken while moving into
increasingly confluent flow through the base of a larger-scale
eastern U.S. trough.  As a weak cyclone develops east along a
west-east draped front from south TX northeastward to the mouth of
the MS River, strengthening low to mid-level flow associated with
warm advection will overspread the northern Gulf of America into the
FL Panhandle tonight.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters have episodically
developed and moved east across south-central TX this morning
immediately downstream of the upper disturbance.  Localized
hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms through the mid-late
afternoon.  A shallow post-frontal stable layer near the surface and
weak instability lended confidence in removing low tornado
probabilities over TX this outlook update.  See MCD #632 regarding
short-term details.

Farther east, little in the way of destabilization is currently
depicted by the latest model guidance to the north of the front,
specifically from near Lake Pontchartrain eastward over the near
shore waters to the south of Mobile Bay and the western FL
Panhandle.  North of the boundary, a low risk for large hail will be
maintained as a couple of stronger elevated storms intensify later
this evening into the overnight and traverse eastward in tandem with
increasing large-scale ascent/strengthening flow fields.  Near and
immediately south of the front, have focused the tornado and wind
probabilities this outlook update to the proximity of surface-based
inflow parcels potentially being realized by organized storm modes.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/01/2026