No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 12 17:36:01 UTC 2026.MD 1601 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Georgia into much of South
Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 121724Z - 121930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next 1-2
hours across portions of Georgia and South Carolina, bringing a
threat for damaging wind gusts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may
eventually be needed.
DISCUSSION...A hot, humid air mass remains in place across much of
the Southeast, with temperatures noted to have already warmed into
the low/mid 90s across portions of eastern Georgia and
southern/central South Carolina as of 1720 UTC. Visible satellite
imagery depicts increasingly agitated cumulus across the region,
with developing thunderstorms noted south and east of the Atlanta
Metro. Continued heating of this air mass will promote further
destabilization through the afternoon to around 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE and increasing convective coverage over the next couple of
hours. Weak deep-layer flow and effective shear suggest a relatively
disorganized, outflow-dominant storm mode, but steepening low-level
lapse rates and PW content near 2 inches will facilitate a risk for
damaging wind gusts (with gusts up to around 60 mph possible) across
the region. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to cover this
potential within the next 1-2 hours.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31108148 31208198 31558281 32228339 33018366 33218367
33718370 34098354 34338330 34488288 34648187 34578083
34308014 33917962 33567927 33227913 33087918 32577979
32128051 31768094 31188117 31108148
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 1600 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX VICINITY INTO NORTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 1600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Areas affected...northeast TX vicinity into northern LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121712Z - 121915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through
the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts are possible, though severe
potential is expected to remain limited.
DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass characterized by 70s F dewpoints
is in place across the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon. Strong
heating of this very moist airmass along a west to east oriented
surface boundary is supporting moderate instability as of midday.
Thunderstorms are already developing along this boundary, and on the
southern periphery of a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima.
Vertical shear will remain weak today, limiting a more organized
severe risk. However, steepening low-level lapse rates through the
afternoon in conjunction with water laden downdrafts, could support
sporadic wet microbursts, with a few stronger gusts possible. A
severe thunderstorm watch appears unlikely at this time.
..Leitman/Smith.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34149707 33849510 33149259 32639155 32239147 31769188
31489324 31489507 31929657 32309732 32919764 33569765
33869761 34149707
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 1599 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1599
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of North Florida and the Florida Panhandle
into southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121700Z - 121900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps an instance or
two of small hail will be possible over the next several hours.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along the Gulf
Coast sea breeze from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida amid
a hot and humid air mass, with a couple of gusts measured in the
40-45 mph range over the past 1-2 hours. Temperatures near 90 F and
dewpoints in the low/mid 70s are already supporting 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE, with further destabilization expected through peak heating
this afternoon. Coupled with high PW (greater than 2 inches) and
steepening low-level lapse rates, an isolated risk for water-loaded
downbursts, damaging wind gusts (with localized gusts to 65 mph
possible), and perhaps an instance or two of small hail should
materialize across the region. Weak effective shear and deep
layer-flow will temper overall convective intensity and
organization. Thus, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30528654 30638694 30848714 31148709 31568668 31778581
31678470 31288317 30858213 30528168 30228136 29838111
29518091 29118076 28828072 28528094 28338128 28228167
28228197 28298217 28428230 28698254 28918284 29198312
29588346 29968402 29998425 29878444 29718466 29558488
29548531 29708548 29968570 30208601 30528654
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND
THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...
CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK PROBABILITY LINES OVER GA/CAROLINAS
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered
severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts
of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately
over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also
appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains...
Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field
over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating
zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to
east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to
warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the
Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will
likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong
to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary
hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely
develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex
region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms.
Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary
layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3
km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger
downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains
but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher
severe probabilities this outlook update.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer
air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether
additional storm development will occur this afternoon in
association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over
parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for
supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued
conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some
guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into
parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts.
...Arizona...
Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary
layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast
to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert,
aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled
by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more
water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph).
...Montana...
A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few
high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across
north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep
inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the
stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/12/2026
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