Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
A cold front will settle slowly southward today across the central
FL Peninsula as large-scale upper troughing persists over the
eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will continue
to advance eastward over FL through the morning and eventually
offshore by this evening. The surface front over the central FL
Peninsula has been reinforced by overnight/early morning convection.
This front, along with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze, should provide
a focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass coupled with
relatively cool mid-level temperatures (around -10 to -12C at 500
mb) will likely support weak to moderate instability by mid
afternoon. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain weak and
mostly parallel to the surface front, modestly enhanced mid-level
winds and related deep-layer shear should foster some updraft
organization with thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon.
Both isolated severe hail and occasional damaging winds may occur
with the strongest cores, before convection eventually focuses
offshore by this evening.

...Oklahoma...
Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across
parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough
embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS
may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in
tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too
weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity,
although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong
deep-layer shear.

...Northern California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today
across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated
with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s
surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around
500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon.
While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area,
the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak
instability.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 02/28/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
On Tuesday, a mid-level trough will move eastward across the Desert
Southwest, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the southern
Plains. As the trough approaches Tuesday night, scattered elevated
thunderstorms will be possible from the Red River northeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley. From Tuesday night into Wednesday, a
moist airmass will spread northward from east-central Texas into the
Arklatex and Ozarks. Thunderstorm development will be possible near
the boundary from central Oklahoma into southern Missouri during the
day on Wednesday, and further southeast across the warm sector in
the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts continue to show moderate
instability ahead of the front. In addition, a mid-level jet streak
is forecast to pass through the southern Plains during the
afternoon, creating deep-layer shear sufficient for severe storms.
Supercells with wind damage and isolated large hail will be
possible. Model solutions are in better agreement this run,
suggesting the severe threat will be a bit further east than was
previously forecast. For this reason, the severe threat area has
been adjusted eastward towards the Ark-La-Tex.

...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
mid Mississippi Valley, as the cold front advances southeastward
into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will
be possible near the front during the day into the evening.
Deep-layer shear and instability are forecast to be somewhat
limited, which should keep any severe threat marginal.

From Thursday night into Friday, southwesterly mid-level flow is
forecast to strengthen over the south-central states. In response,
moisture advection will likely continue over the southern Plains as
moderate instability re-develops across much of the southern Plains.
Scattered thunderstorms should form over parts of this airmass
Thursday night from west-central Texas north-northeastward into
parts of the central Plains. The potential for storm development
should continue into Friday along the northern edge of the moist
airmass from north-central Texas northeastward into the Ozarks.
Although a severe threat could develop over parts of the southern
Plains and Ozarks Friday afternoon and evening, there is
considerable uncertainty, mainly due to variance among model
solutions.

On Saturday, am amplified upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over the western U.S., as mid-level flow becomes south-southwesterly
from the Gulf Coast States into the mid Mississippi Valley. A moist
airmass is forecast over much of the Gulf Coast states, where
scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day. Although a
severe threat could develop during the day, uncertainty is high
concerning the placement of a more concentrated severe threat area.