Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the Northeast while broad upper
ridging overspreads much of the western and central CONUS today.
This upper-air pattern will support surface troughing over the
Northeast, and encourage surface high pressure to overspread the
remainder of the U.S. With the upper trough over the northern Great
Lakes/Northeast, and with a subtle impulse over the Four Corners to
the central Plains, a few thunderstorms are possible given colder
temperatures aloft with these aforementioned features. The best
chance for thunderstorms will be along a moistened baroclinic zone
ahead of a weak surface low over central FL. 

...Western FL Peninsula Coastline...
Similar to yesterday, a weak surface low will remain in place over
the eastern Gulf, amid a moist low-level airmass, characterized by
70s F surface dewpoints and minimal MLCINH. With afternoon heating,
thunderstorm development should occur. As in previous days, lapse
rates will be poor, with buoyancy driven by the rich low-level
moisture, contributing to thin (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE profiles.
Vertical wind shear will also be modest, though low-level veering
may yield some low-level hodograph curvature and associated
transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential will exist
offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing storms will
reach the western FL Peninsula coast, so severe probabilities will
be withheld for now. However, severe probabilities may need to be
added in later outlooks when meso-beta scale details regarding
onshore severe potential become clearer.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/07/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will move east out of James Bay and into Quebec on
Thursday, with a broad upper trough from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast. A leading midlevel speed max is forecast to move across
southern New England during the day, with cold temperatures aloft to
the north. This may favor isolated low-topped thunderstorms from the
Upper Hudson Valley into Maine as surface heating occurs and a wind
shift/trough sweeps across the region. Very small hail cannot be
ruled out with 500 mb temperatures near -25 C.

To the south, strong low-level easterlies will develop over the
northern Gulf of America as the tropical cyclone strengthens over
the central Gulf, possibly into a hurricane by Thursday evening per
NHC. This flow regime will maintain 70s F dewpoints over FL, with
scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible. Severe storms are not
expected due to weak shear and poor lapse rates.

To the west, cool midlevel temperatures to -12 C will exist over the
Great Basin, with sparse weak thunderstorms over parts of the Four
Corners states during the afternoon.

Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms may occur from eastern NE into IA
late in the day and overnight as southwesterly 850 mb winds increase
to 30 kt, with sufficient elevated instability present in the warm
advection/height rise regime.

..Jewell.. 10/07/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
An increasing tornado risk may develop into early Saturday morning
along the north-central Gulf Coast in association with the
developing tropical cyclone.

...Discussion...
Severe storm chances will be low across most of the CONUS on Friday,
the exception being over the northern Gulf Coast late Friday night
into Saturday morning.

NHC currently forecasts Tropical Depression 9 to become a hurricane
late Thursday, strengthening further into Friday over the Gulf of
America. Some uncertainty exists as to the timing of an eventual
forward acceleration northward. In any case, the system is forecast
to affect the northern Gulf Coast late in the Day 3 period (which
ends at 12Z Saturday morning), and as such, low probabilities for
tornado risk have been added.

Low-level shear/SRH will be very strong east of the storm center.
The surface air mass may remain stable over the mainland until very
close to 12Z Saturday, with a greater chance of larger SBCAPE over
extreme southeast LA prior to 12Z. Once the coastal boundary moves
inland, a surge of mid 70s F dewpoints and southerly winds will lead
to overly enlarged hodographs, supporting rotation in the stronger
cells with tornado potential.

..Jewell.. 10/07/2026