Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
KS/NORTHWEST MO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the
central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this
afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from
southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New
York.

...Central/southern Plains into the Midwest...
A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly
east-southeastward across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest
through the period. Downstream of this low and attendant trough, a
lee surface cyclone is forecast to meander across the south-central
High Plains. A weak surface trough will extend southwest of the lee
cyclone across the southern High Plains, while a nearly stationary
front extends east-northeast across KS into northern MO through late
afternoon. 

Despite generally modest midlevel lapse rates, seasonably strong
heating and rich low-level moisture will support moderate to locally
strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) this afternoon,
along/east of the surface trough across the southern Plains and
along/south of the front across KS/MO. Scattered storm development
is expected near KS/MO front by late afternoon, with at least
isolated storms possible farther south into the southern High
Plains. 

Moderate deep-layer shear downstream of the deep mid/upper-level
low/trough will support organized storms, with initial supercell
development possible. Strong to severe gusts and large hail are
expected to be the primary hazards, though some increase in
low-level shear/SRH by early evening could result in a tornado or
two near the front and surface trough. Modest upscale growth will be
possible later tonight across parts of KS/MO and western/southern
IL, though longevity of the severe threat is uncertain due to
increasing nocturnal stabilization with time. 

...Parts of western/central NY...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly from the
Great Lakes towards the Northeast later today. A surface low will
move from northern MI into Ontario. Early-day clouds/precipitation
will help to reinforce a nearly stationary front extending southeast
of the low into parts of western/central NY. Relatively rich
low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will be in place along and
southwest of this front by afternoon, though modest heating and
lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization. 

Increasing deep-layer flow and some low-level hodograph curvature
will provide a favorable wind profile for organized convection,
though potential for warm-sector development remains uncertain, due
to the modest instability. Some threat for localized wind damage and
possibly a brief tornado could accompany any sustained surface-based
storms, though confidence in the magnitude and coverage of the
threat remains low at this time.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/13/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...AND IN PARTS OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts
are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark
Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

An upper low centered near the Four Corners Wednesday morning is
forecast to gradually weaken while progressing into the central High
Plains by early Thursday. Within the southeast periphery of the low,
a vorticity maximum is expected to advance from the southern Rockies
into the central High Plains in tandem with a 50-60 kt jet streak in
the mid levels. Elsewhere, a series of vorticity maxima (some of
convective origin) are forecast to translate from the mid-MS Valley
to the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move
south through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS Valleys, and into
portions of the southern Plains. The western segment of the front
over the southern Plains may eventually stall and perhaps retreat
north Wednesday night in response to falling pressures over the
central Plains.


...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z
Wednesday, along and ahead of the cold front, aided by modest warm
advection and moisture transport along a weakening nocturnal
low-level jet. The presence of a seasonably moist (e.g., dewpoints
in the mid 60s to mid 70s F) and at least marginally unstable air
mass will likely support the continuation of showers and
thunderstorms through the day in some areas. On the southern fringe
of any more persistent clouds and precipitation, stronger heating
may contribute to corridors of moderate instability by afternoon
where MLCAPE may approach 1500-2000 J/kg. That destabilization
process will coincide with strengthening vertical shear and forcing
for ascent preceding the southern Rockies disturbance, yielding an
environment supportive of isolated strong to severe storms during
the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the
primary hazard with the best potential for a few occurrences of
severe hail being in southwest TX.


...Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...

Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid
60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate
instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid-late
afternoon ahead of the cold front. Aided by forcing for ascent
preceding the series of vorticity maxima approaching from the west,
thunderstorms are expected to develop and subsequently increase in
areal coverage along the front at that time. Steepening low-level
lapse rates coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly winds with
height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear
supportive of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts
into evening.

..Mead.. 10/13/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms appear possible over portions of the mid-
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon through night.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over SK/MB Thursday morning is forecast to
undergo considerable amplification while translating into the Great
Lakes late Thursday night/early Friday. Ahead of that feature, an
upper low will weaken into an increasingly sheared open wave while
accelerating from the central High Plains into the Midwest. At the
surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along a
poleward-advancing warm front from central or eastern KS through the
mid-MS and OH Valleys to the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile a trailing
cold front will surge south through much of the southern Plains and
into the lower-MS Valley.


...Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Thursday from
portions of the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley within a zone
of warm-air and moisture advection preceding the surface low. A
subset of the early-day storms may persist through the day with
associated cloud cover limiting daytime heating and resultant air
mass destabilization in those areas. Where cloud breaks can occur,
stronger diabatic heating coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s may contribute to a corridor of moderate
instability by afternoon, which would become a preferred zone of
diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development.  

Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent are forecast to steadily
strengthen from Thursday afternoon through night, leading to the
potential for a fast-moving complex of storms to traverse the region
with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 10/13/2026