Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...South Florida...

Neutral-weak height rises are forecast across the FL Peninsula
during the day1 period as midlevel flow gradually weakens across low
latitudes, including the eastern Gulf basin/south FL. Latest
diagnostic data depicts a weak surface boundary extends across the
southern tip of the peninsula, and this feature is forecast to
migrate toward the western tip of the south FL Peninsula by the end
of the period. Modest daytime heating should contribute to weak
buoyancy and scattered convection is expected to develop within this
weak-flow regime. Forecast lapse rates/instability appear too weak
to warrant a meaningful risk for severe thunderstorms today.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 03/13/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Saturday, a strong upper trough will dig into the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies during the day, and into the northern
and central High Plains by 12Z Sunday. To the east, an upper trough
will exit New England, with rapid height rises across much of the
Northeast overnight.

At the surface, most of the CONUS will remain relatively stable for
much of the period with high pressure ridge from the Great Lakes
into the Southeast, and extending across the northern Gulf of
America. The exception during the day will be over the FL Peninsula,
where weak east to southeast winds will maintain mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints.

...FL...
Daytime heating and surface convergence will lead to a few
thunderstorms by afternoon over the interior Peninsula and along the
Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings show relatively warm and dry
midlevels, with lightly veering winds with height. The end result
should be non-severe thunderstorms, though locally gusty winds are
always possible.

...Elsewhere...
Though little thunderstorm activity is expected through Sunday
morning, a powerful upper trough will develop across the Rockies and
into the High Plains into Sunday. Sporadic lightning cannot be ruled
out over western WY and vicinity as the left-exit region of the
midlevel jet moves overhead. A surface low will then develop
overnight into the central Plains, and this will bring a warm front
north into southern IA. Overall moisture at this time appears
meager, but isolated lightning cannot totally be ruled out with any
highly elevated convective showers Sunday morning across northern IA
into MN and WI well north of the warm front.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026