WW 676 SEVERE TSTM TX 302210Z - 010500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
510 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West Central Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous through
the late afternoon and evening over the watch area. A few severe
storms are possible, with damaging winds and perhaps hail being the
main concerns.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west northwest
of Fort Stockton TX to 20 miles east of Abilene TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 675...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
WW 675 TORNADO KS 302100Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 675
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central into Northeast Kansas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase across central and
northeast KS over the next several hours. Ample low-level moisture
and strong low-level flow will result in environmental conditions
favorable for tornadoes this afternoon and evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Hutchinson
KS to 40 miles east of Manhattan KS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22020.
...Mosier
WW 0676 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0676 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0675 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0675 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 2340 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Areas affected...parts of northern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302200Z - 010030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms may persist from parts of central into
northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. A storm or two may exhibit
rotation with a brief/weak tornado not out of the question.
DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed within within the warm
sector from northern TX across central OK, with additional activity
extending into east-central KS. While the primary large-scale lift
will remain to the north of these areas, south/southwest 850 mb
winds are forecast to increase to over 40 kt this evening.
Currently, the TLX VWP shows 0-1 SRH around 125 m2/s2, with larger
values farther north to 300 m2/s2 at ICT.
Given a few hours of scattered storms within this corridor, and
areas of stronger low-level shear (especially into KS), a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out if a more robust cell can develop.
..Jewell/Hart.. 09/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35529789 37929712 38219663 38279574 38089556 37919546
37469555 36149594 35509625 35169661 35139755 35239778
35529789
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 2339 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 2339
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Areas affected...northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302056Z - 302300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few low topped storms may produce instances of
marginally severe hail and strong to sever wind this
afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...Cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing forcing
for ascent with the trough behind the surface low across New Mexico
is leading to gradual destabilization and increase in thunderstorm
activity across northeastern New Mexico. Moisture is somewhat
limited to the west across New Mexico, with low to mid 50s dew
points, improving with eastward extent into the OK/TX panhandles
with around 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE. This fairly marginal instability
will be sufficient, given strong deep layer shear, for a few
low-topped storms/transient supercells capable of marginally severe
hail and strong to severe wind. This will shift eastward into the
panhandles with time this evening. Overall, this potential looks to
remain fairly isolated and watch issuance is not anticipated.
..Thornton/Mosier.. 09/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35970449 36350440 37240294 37530185 37430122 37050085
36690069 36350072 36130093 35600233 35320339 35310404
35970449
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
The potential for a few tornadoes and localized wind damage will
exist across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska this
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms capable of severe wind
gusts/some hail and a brief tornado are also expected across the
southern Plains this afternoon into tonight, including portions of
west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.
...20z Update...
The Level 1/Marginal Risk was expanded slightly eastward across
portions of southeastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and northeastern
Texas based on latest observation and HRRR/RRFS trends. Similarly,
the 5% hail probability area (and the corresponding Level 1/Marginal
Risk area) was expanded westward based on observed thunderstorm
development across portions of northeastern New Mexico. Elsewhere,
no changes were made to the existing severe probabilities as the
forecast remains generally on track. See MCDs #2337 and #2338 as
well as the discussion below for additional details.
..Chalmers/Thornton.. 09/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
Currently satellite imagery shows a deep cyclone centered over the
central NM/AZ border vicinity. Recent surface analysis places the
surface low associated with this system over the northwest TX
Panhandle/western OK Panhandle vicinity. A broad warm sector
precedes this low from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Ample low-level moisture exists within this warm sector, with low
70s dewpoints currently reaching far south-central OK and upper 60s
dewpoints reaching as far north as the Omaha, Nebraska vicinity.
Widespread cloud cover currently persists across much of the warm
sector, with more scattered clouds in place across central and east
TX.
General expectation is for the cyclone to gradually shift eastward
across NM today as moderate/strong mid-level flow through the
eastern periphery of this cyclone expands from the southern High
Plains into the central Plains. At the same time, the attendant
surface low is forecast to shift gradually northeast into central
KS. Moderate low-level moisture advection will precede the low, with
70s dewpoints likely covering much of central and eastern KS by this
evening. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of
the surface low from the southern Plains through the central Plains
into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear most
likely in two areas within this broader region: across central and
eastern KS this afternoon and evening and farther south from
southwest OK/northwest TX through the TX Hill Country.
...Central/Eastern KS...
Cloud cover will likely persist throughout the day, with most of the
airmass destabilization driven by the low-level moisture advection
mentioned in the synopsis. Low 70s dewpoints are expected to cover
much of central and eastern KS by the late afternoon/early evening.
Even with limited heating and the tropical character to the airmass
keeping lapse rates poor, the ample low-level moisture is still
expected to support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy
this afternoon and evening. This destabilization looks to occur just
ahead of the stronger forcing for ascent attendant to the dry slot
progressing through the eastern periphery of the AZ/NM cyclone.
Additionally, a rather strong low-level jet (40 to 45 kt diurnally)
is forecast to slowly shift northeastward across parts of
central/eastern Kansas into western Missouri and southeast
Nebraska/southwest Iowa by evening. This will help to maintain
strong wind profiles across much of the region. RAP guidance
suggests 0-1 km SRH from 150 to 200 m2/s2 across central and eastern
KS.
Combination of these factors will result in a rather unique
mesoscale setup for tornadoes from central and eastern KS into far
southeast NE. Tornadoes within these environments are typically
brief, but there should be enough updraft depth in this case to
support the potential for a few longer-duration storms. This
potential appears to peak around 21Z to 00Z. After 00Z, the stronger
forcing for ascent should begin to extend north of the surface-based
buoyancy.
...Southern Plains...
Low 70s dewpoints will likely extend throughout the warm sector
covering much of the southern Plains this afternoon. This low-level
moisture will result in airmass destabilization, despite limited
heating and poor lapse rates. Primary thunderstorm development is
anticipated this evening along the modest surface troughing that
will extend south of the surface low moving into KS. An initially
supercellular mode appears possible from southwest Oklahoma into
northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau, where heating of a very
moist airmass will result in MLCAPE near/above 1500 J/kg amid
moderate deep-layer vertical shear. Generally front-parallel flow
and increasing storm coverage will likely lead to more of a linear
mode with time. Strong to severe gusts appear to be the most likely
hazard, though isolated hail also appears possible across southwest
TX, where stronger destabilization is expected. Some increase in
effective SRH is expected during the evening, which could support a
localized tornado threat within the very moist environment. An
isolated severe threat could persist into parts of central
Texas/Oklahoma overnight, though diminishing buoyancy with time and
eastward extent should result in an eventual weakening trend.
A somewhat separate and more isolated severe potential is
anticipated throughout the day from central TX into central OK amid
increasing coverage of warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms
within the warm sector. Most of these storms will likely be brief
and/or weak, but the persistent low-level jet could result in a few
stronger storms capable of a damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado.
...South-Central High Plains...
Strong forcing for ascent attendant to the NM cyclone will interact
with cooling mid-level temperatures and modest low-level moisture
persisting on the back side of the surface low to support moderate
buoyancy amid moderate deep-layer vertical shear. A few strong to
locally severe lower-topped storms capable of large hail could
occur.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday.
...Discussion...
A vigorous, polar-branch trough progressing through the Great Lakes
and Northeast will become disconnected from a positively tilted,
lower-latitude trough over the southern Plains. At the surface, a
cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes into the southern
Plains Friday morning will advance south through the Mid-Atlantic
and the OH and TN Valleys toward the Gulf Coast states.
A fairly expansive area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
be ongoing at 12Z Friday along and ahead of the front from the OH
Valley into the southern Plains. Lingering precipitation and
associated cloud cover are expected to limit daytime heating and
resultant air mass destabilization at many locations along the
boundary into the afternoon. Latest model guidance indicates the
segment of the front from southern MO and northern AR to along the
OH River will coincide with 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear with the
vector orientation largely paralleling the boundary. As such, the
risk for a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds could
materialize in those areas Friday afternoon and evening given
sufficient destabilization for surface-based storms. The overall
severe weather threat still appears too low to warrant inclusion of
Marginal-Risk probabilities.
..Mead.. 09/30/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...20Z Update...
No defined areas of fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS
through D2/Thursday. Increasing south/southwest flow ahead of an
advancing upper trough and related surface low over the southern
Plains is expected across the Ohio River Valley where appreciably
dry fuels exist. However, increasing cloud cover and limited
relative humidity reductions should offset effects from sustained
south/southwest winds of 10-15 mph.
..Williams.. 09/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over the southern Plains will transition into
weakening upper troughing as it progresses northeastward on Day
2/Thursday. At the surface, a slow-moving cold front will extend
from the Great Lakes region into the Texas Hill Country. Widespread
rainfall will continue along the front, bringing much-needed relief
to dry fuels in the eastern Arkansas River Basin. Meanwhile, ridging
will rapidly expand over the Desert Southwest, promoting
above-normal temperatures and dry conditions in much of the western
Great Basin and California. Fuels will continue to dry under these
meteorological conditions, but generally light surface winds should
limit fire weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
A southward progressing cold front will push into the Ohio River
Valley and Southern Plains by Day 3/Friday as an increasingly
diffuse mid-level trough lingers over the Southern Plains. The cold
front will meet an air mass infused with anomalously high
atmospheric moisture leading to wetting rains across parts of the
Ohio River Valley and the Southeast. This should result in a
contraction of receptive fuels and reduced fire weather concerns for
the Ohio River Valley and Mid-South.
Forecast confidence remains high in the overall upper-level pattern
evolution with a broad ridge gradually building across the western
U.S. well into next week. Model guidance consensus still indicates a
weak upper wave/low pushing into northern California and Oregon on
Day 5/Sunday. However, limited moisture and instability in addition
to marginally dry fuels should suppress dry thunderstorm potential
and impacts in northern California Sunday. Otherwise, the primary
effect of the ridge will be above normal temperatures and dry
conditions with resulting drying fuels. Mid/upper troughing and
associated enhanced winds could return to the western U.S. by late
next week (beyond Day 8/Wednesday), potentially ushering in broader
fire weather concerns into areas where multiple days of warm and dry
conditions will have preconditioned the fuelscape.
..Williams.. 09/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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