Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing will remain dominant over the central
and eastern CONUS through the period, with multiple embedded
mid-level shortwave troughs progressing over the southern/central
Plains, MS Valley/Midwest, and Southeast. At the surface, a cold
front will continue moving southeastward off the central Gulf Coast
today. Even with gradual low-level moisture return/airmass
modification forecast across parts of the southern FL Peninsula and
Keys, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm
potential ahead of the front through tonight.

..Gleason.. 01/17/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during
the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the
country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may
develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and
possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend.
These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the
TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the
Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a
developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain
shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across
portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early
Thursday morning. 

Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced
southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the
weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions
of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance
varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.