WW 222 TORNADO KS NE 181750Z - 190100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeast Kansas
Southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until
800 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Rapid supercell development is expected over north-central
Kansas. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon
across the watch area, into far southeast Nebraska. Instability and
shear parameters suggest the potential for intense tornadoes, along
with very large hail and damaging winds.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Salina KS to 10
miles east southeast of Falls City NE. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 220...WW 221...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Hart
WW 221 SEVERE TSTM MI LE LH LM 181700Z - 190000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Lower Michigan
Lake Erie
Lake Huron
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms over southern Lake Michigan will
track northeastward across the watch, while other storms form over
northern Lower Michigan. All of these storms will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts and hail through the afternoon.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south of Jackson
MI to 40 miles northwest of Alpena MI. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 220...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.
...Hart
WW 220 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI OH LM 181505Z - 182200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Illinois
Northern and Central Indiana
Southwest Michigan
Northwest Ohio
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1105 AM until
600 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over central Illinois will track
northeastward through the day across the watch area. Swaths of
damaging winds are expected with the more intense line segments.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Champaign IL to 55 miles east of Fort Wayne IN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.
...Hart
WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0222 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HALBERT..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...DTX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC001-005-007-009-011-015-017-019-025-029-031-035-037-039-045-
047-049-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-081-085-087-
089-091-093-099-101-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-129-133-
135-137-139-141-143-145-147-151-155-157-159-161-163-165-
181940-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCONA ALLEGAN ALPENA
ANTRIM ARENAC BARRY
BAY BENZIE CALHOUN
CHARLEVOIX CHEBOYGAN CLARE
CLINTON CRAWFORD EATON
EMMET GENESEE GLADWIN
GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT HURON
INGHAM IONIA IOSCO
ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO
KALKASKA KENT LAKE
LAPEER LEELANAU LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MANISTEE
MECOSTA MIDLAND MISSAUKEE
MONROE MONTCALM MONTMORENCY
MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OAKLAND
OGEMAW OSCEOLA OSCODA
OTSEGO OTTAWA PRESQUE ISLE
WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N SLO TO
20 SW HUF TO 25 E HUF TO 40 E LAF TO 30 WNW FWA TO 25 SSW AZO TO
15 W AZO.
..HALBERT..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IWX...IND...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC025-033-079-101-159-181940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAWFORD JASPER
LAWRENCE RICHLAND
INC001-003-009-011-021-033-035-053-057-059-063-065-067-069-075-
081-087-095-097-103-109-113-119-133-135-145-151-153-159-169-179-
183-181940-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
BOONE CLAY DE KALB
DELAWARE GRANT HAMILTON
HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY
HOWARD HUNTINGTON JAY
JOHNSON LAGRANGE MADISON
MARION MIAMI MORGAN
NOBLE OWEN PUTNAM
MD 0772 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 220... FOR WESTERN INDIANA INTO EASTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Areas affected...Western Indiana into Eastern Ohio
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220...
Valid 181850Z - 182015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms persist and are progressing eastward
across WW 220. They will continue to be capable of primarily
damaging wind gusts. Conditions are being monitored for a new WW
issued east of WW 220.
DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms continues to progress
across WW 220. Though the expectation is that the line should begin
to weaken with eastward extent, it will still be capable of damaging
wind gusts of 55-70 MPH within WW 220. Conditions will continue to
be monitored for a new WW eastward into Ohio, though uncertainty
exists in the convective longevity. Though the instability generally
decreases with eastward extent, the well-established cold-pool could
aid in persisting convection further east than the current WW 220
boundary.
..Halbert.. 05/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
LAT...LON 39398604 39398620 39498680 39738654 40458605 40828578
41118562 41508561 42008568 42098551 42058498 42028458
41858403 41688362 41368311 40938303 40348321 39768352
39358400 39208437 39238519 39278552 39398604
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the south-central
Plains and mid Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening...
* LOCATIONS...
Iowa
Central and Eastern Kansas
Northwest Missouri
Southeast Nebraska
Northern Oklahoma
* HAZARDS...
Several tornadoes, a couple intense
Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force
Widespread baseball-size hail
* SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.
Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and
multiple strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from
central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest
Missouri.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA....
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.
Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and
multiple strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central
Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri.
...Central Plains...
Morning water vapor loop shows a potent shortwave trough rotating
across the central Rockies into western KS. The primary surface
boundary extends from western IA into central KS, with a pronounced
outflow boundary associated with overnight convection extending from
southeast KS into southern MO. The outflow boundary will lift
northward today, allowing a very moist and extremely unstable air
mass to spread into eastern KS/northwest MO/extreme southeast
NE/southwest IA. This is the area most concerning for intense
supercells later today.
Initial storms are expected to develop by early afternoon near the
triple point of the retreating outflow boundary and cold front.
These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon and
early evening in a strongly sheared environment favorable for
tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. It remains unclear
how stormscale interactions will impact discrete supercell mode, but
strong tornadoes are a concern in this region.
Farther southwest, thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the
cold front across south-central KS by late afternoon. Recent CAM
solutions suggest these storms may be affected by the linear frontal
forcing, and may be slightly anafrontal. This would lessen the
tornado risk, but very large hail and damaging winds would remain a
concern. No changes have been made to the Moderate Risk area due to
conflicting model signals.
...Western OK/Northwest TX...
Full sunshine will lead to hot temperatures along the dryline over
western OK into northwest TX. At least isolated thunderstorms are
expected to form in this area, with a risk of large hail and
damaging winds. Weak large scale forcing may limit storm duration
and intensity.
...OH Valley/Great Lakes...
A line of thunderstorms along the IL/IN border is tracking
northeastward into a warm/moist air mass. Relatively strong
low-level wind fields and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a
continued risk of scattered wind damage with the strongest storms as
they track across parts of IN/Lower MI/Northwest OH.
..Hart/Halbert.. 05/18/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold
front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the
southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the primary threats.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough over the northern Plains into upper MS Valley
Tuesday morning will translate northeast into Ontario with an
associated belt of strong mid-level flow overspreading the Great
Lakes. The stronger mid-level winds will extend southwest into the
central High Plains, downstream from a positively tilted trough
moving through the Great Basin and lower CO Valley.
At the surface, low pressure associated with northern Plains
disturbance will develop from the upper Great Lakes through
southeast Ontario into Quebec. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will
move through the Great Lakes and OH Valley, with the trailing
extension of the boundary advancing through the mid MS Valley and
southern Plains. The cold front and any preceding outflow boundaries
associated with early-day convection will serve as the main foci for
diurnally enhanced strong to severe storm development.
...Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and New England...
A southwesterly low-level jet will sustain a moist boundary layer
across the pre-frontal warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to
perhaps low 70s in the OH Valley. The moisture will combine with
daytime heating to support MLCAPE ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg across
the mid/lower Great Lakes into New England, with as high as
2000-3000 J/kg forecast in the OH Valley. A broad zone of low-level
warm advection coupled with the glancing influence of the Ontario
short-wave trough are expected to support a gradual increase in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and
ahead of the synoptic cold front.
The strongest low/mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer shear is
forecast to reside across the Great Lakes and northern New England,
where transient bowing and/or supercell structures appear possible.
Weaker shear with southward extent into the OH Valley will be
supportive of multicell clusters. Damaging wind gusts appear to be
the primary hazard in both regimes, though isolated occurrences of
marginally severe hail are also possible.
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning along or
ahead of the cold front from the Ozarks into OK. Daytime heating of
the downstream air mass coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the
60s to low 70s and steepening mid-level lapse rates with
southwestward extent will support moderate to strong afternoon
instability with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg. The 12z models suggest
that a subset of the early-day storms will intensify by afternoon
across the Ozark Plateau with additional thunderstorm development
anticipated along the synoptic cold front and preceding convective
outflow boundaries from the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains.
There is some model signal that one or multiple, weak disturbances
will translate from the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau during
the day, which will aid in the diurnally enhanced storm development.
As alluded to in the synopsis, the strongest mid-level flow and
associated vertical shear is expected remain confined to the
post-frontal air mass. The exception will be across parts of the TX
Permian Basin into the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, where easterly
low-level winds ahead of front will augment modest mid-level flow to
support 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. As such, predominant
convective modes will be multicell clusters and line segments
capable of damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Large hail
potential (some hailstones in excess of 2") increases with
southwestward extent into TX owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates
and the potential for supercell storm modes, given the stronger
vertical shear.
..Mead.. 05/18/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions expected across parts of the
southern High Plains this afternoon and evening***
...Southern High Plains...
No changes were made to the fire weather risk areas. Despite good
overnight humidity recoveries across much of the southern Plains, a
volatile fire environment is expected to evolve this afternoon as a
combination of very strong southwest winds of 25-35 mph (gusts
exceeding 40 mph) and critically low RH overlap a region of
profoundly dry fuels and active fires. Current surface observations
depict a cold front draped across the northern TX Panhandle with
weak northerly winds trailing behind, and a dryline slowly pushing
east across the Caprock. The cold front is expected to gradually
lift northward into southwest KS this afternoon as southerly winds
increase and spread over the southern Plains. Uncertainty exists in
how far north the front will lift, with some guidance portraying it
lifting to the southwest KS/OK state line and stalling for a few
hours. However, with numerous active fires and any new ignitions
this afternoon, a drastic wind shift from southwesterly to northerly
as the aforementioned front sweeps through the southern Plains this
evening could further exacerbate the fire environment and any
control efforts. The cold front is expected to progress southward
after 00z, with strong northerly winds of 20-30 mph (gusts up to 40
mph) immediately following the front, and breezy conditions
persisting overnight. See the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026/
...Synopsis...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions expected across parts of the
southern High Plains***
...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject over the Plains, resulting
in surface cyclone deepening over southwest Kansas, which will
promote widespread, dangerously dry and windy conditions across
parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains today. A
dryline will sharpen across southwestern Kansas into far western
Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon, with a very dry boundary
layer mixing up to 500 mb in the post-dryline environment. Given
strong downward mixing, as well as surface gradient flow with the
deepening cyclone, widespread 20-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly
surface winds overlapping with 5-15 percent RH is expected. These
conditions are likely for several hours across much of New Mexico,
to southwestern Kansas and points in between, necessitating the
maintenance of Critical highlights.
Extremely Critical highlights remain in place where confidence is
highest in sustained surface winds exceeding 30 mph amid
single-digit RH, and where the ERCs of fuel-loaded grasses exceed
the 95th percentile. Guidance consensus suggests that this volatile
overlap of favorable meteorological conditions and fuels will occur
over extreme eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles
and southwestern Kansas, immediately behind the dryline. The
combination of the very strong surface winds/RH, critically dry
fuels, and exacerbation of potential holdover fires will all support
wildfire spread at a life-threateningly fast pace. The danger to the
fire spread may be compounded later in the evening and early
overnight hours, when the surface cold front sweeps into the region,
resulting in a dramatic shift of the surface winds from westerly to
northerly, pivoting any ongoing fire fronts accordingly.
...Sacramento Valley in California...
A mid-level north-northwesterly wind maximum will overspread
northern California during the afternoon hours, when a dry boundary
layer is poised to mix up to the 700-500 mb layer. Such conditions
will encourage enough downward mixing, in tandem with downslope
flow, to support Elevated wildfire-spread conditions in the
Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Sustained northerly surface winds
in the 15-20 mph range coinciding with 15-20 percent RH will overlap
with receptive fuels for at least a few hours, warranting fire
weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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