WW 442 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 022225Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Colorado
Western Kansas
Southwest Nebraska
* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to increase in multiple
corridors across the region, with large hail and damaging winds as
the primary hazards, which includes the potential for multiple
linear clusters to develop and organize this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south of Garden
City KS to 50 miles west northwest of Mccook NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...WW 438...WW
439...WW 440...WW 441...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...Guyer
WW 441 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 022205Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Montana
Western North Dakota
Western South Dakota
Northeast Wyoming
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
across the region into this evening, with large hail and
severe-caliber winds as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast
of Baker MT to 10 miles south southwest of Rapid City SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...WW 438...WW
439...WW 440...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
WW 440 SEVERE TSTM WI LM 022020Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A large cluster of thunderstorms, including a few
supercells will track eastward across southern Wisconsin this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
concerns, although a tornado or two is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west southwest
of Lonerock WI to 20 miles north northeast of Milwaukee WI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...WW 438...WW 439...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Hart
WW 439 SEVERE TSTM SD 021900Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly intensifying over central South
Dakota near a surface boundary. These storms will track slowly
eastward through the watch area during the afternoon, with a risk of
large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest
of Pierre SD to 30 miles north northeast of Brookings SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...WW 438...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Hart
WW 438 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 021840Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Alabama
Northeast Mississippi
Western and Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon in a hot and humid air mass. These slow-moving
storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest
of Fort Campbell KY to 25 miles south of Huntsville AL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
09015.
...Hart
WW 437 SEVERE TSTM IA WI 021745Z - 030000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Iowa
Southwest Wisconsin
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM
until 700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over north-central Iowa.
These storms will track eastward along and north of a surface
boundary into a strongly unstable air mass. Damaging winds and
large hail are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south of Mason
City IA to 20 miles northeast of Dubuque IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Hart
WW 0442 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 442
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...DDC...GID...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-121-125-022340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON WASHINGTON
YUMA
KSC023-039-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109-
119-129-135-137-147-153-163-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-195-199-
203-022340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRANT GRAY GREELEY
HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN
KEARNY LANE LOGAN
MEADE MORTON NESS
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SCOTT SEWARD
SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON
STEVENS THOMAS TREGO
WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-075-109-022340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON POWDER RIVER
WIBAUX
NDC001-007-011-033-041-087-089-022340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER SLOPE
STARK
SDC019-055-063-081-093-103-105-137-022340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE HAAKON HARDING
LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON
WW 0440 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 440
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOORE..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 440
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC021-025-027-039-045-047-049-055-059-065-077-079-089-101-105-
111-117-127-131-133-022340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA DANE DODGE
FOND DU LAC GREEN GREEN LAKE
IOWA JEFFERSON KENOSHA
LAFAYETTE MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE
OZAUKEE RACINE ROCK
SAUK SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH
WASHINGTON WAUKESHA
LMZ643-644-645-646-022340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI
WW 0439 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 439
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 439
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-005-011-015-017-025-029-039-049-051-057-059-065-069-073-
075-077-085-097-107-111-115-117-119-022340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BROOKINGS
BRULE BUFFALO CLARK
CODINGTON DEUEL FAULK
GRANT HAMLIN HAND
HUGHES HYDE JERAULD
JONES KINGSBURY LYMAN
MINER POTTER SANBORN
SPINK STANLEY SULLY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0438 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW HSV TO
25 ENE MSL TO 35 S MKL.
..MOORE..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC043-049-071-083-089-095-103-022340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULLMAN DEKALB JACKSON
LIMESTONE MADISON MARSHALL
MORGAN
TNC003-005-015-017-021-023-031-037-039-043-051-053-055-071-077-
079-081-083-085-099-101-103-109-113-117-119-125-127-135-147-149-
161-165-181-183-187-189-022340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BENTON CANNON
CARROLL CHEATHAM CHESTER
COFFEE DAVIDSON DECATUR
DICKSON FRANKLIN GIBSON
GILES HARDIN HENDERSON
HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS LAWRENCE LEWIS
LINCOLN MCNAIRY MADISON
WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOORE..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 437
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-011-013-017-019-023-037-043-045-055-061-065-067-069-075-
083-089-097-105-113-127-131-171-191-022340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BENTON BLACK HAWK
BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER
CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON
DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE
FLOYD FRANKLIN GRUNDY
HARDIN HOWARD JACKSON
JONES LINN MARSHALL
MITCHELL TAMA WINNESHIEK
WIC023-043-022340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD GRANT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
MD 1451 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437... FOR CENTRAL TO EASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...Central to eastern Iowa
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437...
Valid 022242Z - 030045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail will likely persist for another
1-2 hours across central Iowa. Some hail threat may manifest across
eastern Iowa and possibly northwest Illinois through the evening.
DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storm development continues across
central IA where modest 925-850 mb flow continues to overrun a
sagging outflow boundary draped across the state. Based on MRMS VII
imagery, several of these cores have at least briefly intensified to
severe levels (with occasional 1-inch hail reported) before becoming
displaced further north into the cold pool. Aloft, the passage of an
upper wave across the mid-MO River valley will likely maintain broad
scale ascent over the region and help maintain southerly flow into
the southern portion of the cold pool/outflow. Lifted indices on the
order of -8 to -10 C remain within the warm sector where updrafts
are originating, and deep-layer shear within the effective layer of
around 30-35 knots should maintain the potential for robust updrafts
and transient supercells at least for another couple of hours.
The primarily modulating factor for overall storm intensity will be
destructive storm interactions and rapid displacement to the cool
side of the boundary. With time, eastward propagation of the cold
pool may shift the primary corridor of severe hail potential
eastward into eastern IA and possibly as far east as northwest IL.
Trends will continue to be monitored, and local temporal extension
and/or expansion of WW 437 may be needed as we approach the 00 UTC
expiration time.
..Moore.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41399376 41519414 41729435 42149446 42419439 42699416
42759367 42709016 42628975 42398954 42148945 41828943
41528951 41428965 41399376
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1449 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440... FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...
Valid 022210Z - 030015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind gusts should increase across
southern Wisconsin over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...The development of a consolidated cold pool has become
evident in velocity data from KARX and KMKX over the past hour. This
appears to confirm the expected mode transition from broken cells to
a more cohesive convective band/MCS. Downstream, the environment
across southern WI is favorable for MCS maintenance with a pocket of
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective bulk shear in
place per recent mesoanalyses and regional VWPs. Based on this
parameter space, maximum wind speeds within the MCS may be as high
as 65-75 mph (a recent 62 mph gust was noted at KLNR with the
passage of the line). This threat appears most likely to manifest
roughly along and just south of the I-94 corridor. 20 knot 0-3 km
bulk shear vectors noted in regional VWPs are oriented roughly
orthogonal to the developing line, which may support some brief
circulations as well.
..Moore.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 42589046 42789006 43078982 43318964 43478956 43558938
43608772 43228779 43008782 42828774 42648772 42538775
42498781 42489011 42509027 42589046
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1448 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...Northern Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 022205Z - 030000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for strong to severe downburst winds may
increase over the next couple of hours if storm clustering can
occur. While confidence is limited, watch issuance may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Over the past half hour, GOES imagery has depicted an
uptick in cumulus depth and intensity of ongoing convection across
northern GA and adjacent portions of NC and SC. Some of this
activity appears to be driven by residual outflow from prior
convection, hinting that low-level forcing for ascent may be
sufficient for further intensification as storms move further into
northern GA. Here, temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 90s
with dewpoint depressions generally around 20-25 F and low-level
lapse rates between 8 to 8.5 C/km. This environment is very
favorable for intense downbursts capable of producing strong/severe
wind gusts. The potential for such winds may increase as storms
continue to propagate west/southwest into this environment. The wind
threat may become somewhat more widespread if clustering can occur,
which may necessitate watch issuance. However, given the relatively
late onset of deeper convection in the diurnal heating cycle, it
remains somewhat unclear how prolonged/prolific the wind threat will
be. Nonetheless, trends will continue to be monitored.
..Moore/Guyer.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 34818294 34498254 34248228 34078223 33888230 33678265
33528296 33478325 33438374 33438424 33538466 33668497
33848521 34088532 34368542 34708545 34918543 35068526
35148496 35168383 35148348 34998320 34818294
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1447 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...Western South Dakota...Far Southeast Montana...Far
Northeast Wyoming
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 022135Z - 022330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat, with a potential for severe wind gusts
and isolated large hail, is expected to develop across parts of
western South Dakota over the next couple of hours. The threat could
extend westward into far southeast Montana and far northeast
Wyoming. Weather watch issuance appears likely.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is
currently located near Belle Fourche, South Dakota, just to the
north of the Black Hills. The storms are developing to the northeast
of a surface low, along an axis of maximized low-level convergence.
The latest RAP has a corridor of moderate to strong instability
across central and northwestern South Dakota, where MLCAPE is in the
2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The storms are moving eastward along the
southwestern edge of the stronger instability, and appears to be
supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor
imagery. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Rapid City has 0-6 km shear
around 30 knots suggesting that the storms should remain organized
enough for a severe threat to continue. The storms are expected to
move eastward into the stronger instability and should be associated
with a potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Additional storms could develop further west into far southeast
Montana and far northeast Wyoming, if the cells there can intensify
over the next couple of hours.
..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 43790341 44080454 44350522 44620563 44950574 45240567
45520529 45660472 45670387 45660216 45450158 45110138
44640119 44090116 43800145 43670193 43690280 43790341
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WESTERN KANSAS...AND
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are still possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions today into tonight, as well
as across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley this
afternoon and early evening.
...20Z Update...
Much of the previous forecast remains generally on track, especially
for portions of the central High Plains, the TN Valley, and northern
New England.
However, appreciable uncertainty still exists regarding the
potential for focused corridors of severe across much of the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Relatively robust supercell
evolution has occurred along mesoscale surface baroclinic
boundaries, amid generally weak upper-level support, to support
instances of 2-3 inch diameter hail over central/eastern SD, as well
as instances of brief and modest rotation with storms over
northeastern IA. Please see MCDs 1440-1441 for short-term details of
convective evolution. However, these storms are moving roughly
normal to boundary orientation, putting the duration of higher-end
severe into question. At least for portions of the Upper Midwest
though, there is a modest signal of an MCS traversing a baroclinic
boundary along the WI/IL border for multiple hours. A locally
greater concentration of damaging gusts could accompany this
activity through the afternoon, though confidence in this scenario
is not overly high either. Many of the ongoing storms (especially
over SD) are occurring over portions of the open warm sector
relatively early in the diurnal heating cycle, casting uncertainty
regarding the impacts the ongoing storms will have on later
afternoon initiation and evolution along other mesoscale boundaries.
As such, prudence was exercised in favor of making only minor
changes to the outlook to reflect the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 07/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026/
...SD to WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows several weak and/or convectively
induced shortwave troughs moving across the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This area will have widespread marginal to moderate
afternoon CAPE and dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s. This leads to
a forecast of a large area of potential thunderstorm development,
but with weak/nebulous forcing and general height-rises aloft. As
such, the overall confidence in this forecast is not very high.
Storms are likely to focus along a boundary currently evident from
southern SD into central IA. Convection currently developing in
northern IA near the boundary should continue to intensify through
the afternoon and track into southern WI/northern IL with a severe
wind/hail threat.
Other intense thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop along
the SD/NE portion of the boundary by mid/late afternoon, also with a
risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
...Western KS...
Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a region of
strong instability over western KS this afternoon. Most CAM
solutions suggest at least isolated thunderstorms form along the
KS/CO border and spread slowly eastward during the evening. A
deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of
damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.
...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread very moist and unstable air mass is present today
across this region, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level
lapse rates and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Weak forcing under an
upper ridge limits confidence in timing/location of storms.
However, widely scattered thunderstorm development should eventually
result in merging outflows and the risk of gusty/damaging winds this
afternoon and early evening across the region.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS...AND FROM EASTERN OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms will be possible from the central Plains into the
Midwest and Mid-Atlantic this Fourth of July (Saturday). The
greatest concentration of strong to severe storms will be within
portions of the Mid-Atlantic, and over parts of the central Plains
late.
...Parts of the Mid Atlantic...
Stronger mid to high level winds exist over the Northeast, though 30
kt at 500 mb will extend as far south as Maryland. A surface trough
will deepen during the day near the I-90 corridor, where 70s F
dewpoints will contribute to moderate instability. Storms may
develop both within the instability plume from OH into PA, and
within the heated surface trough from VA into PA/NJ. Strong wind
gusts will be common, with some severe/damaging gusts likely late
afternoon through early evening during peak heating.
...Central High Plains...
Scattered strong to severe storms may develop near the Front Range
as surface winds back to easterly late in the day. This will bring
moisture westward toward the higher terrain, with most models
showing a few cells developing late afternoon with localized hail
and wind potential. Good direction shear and steep lapse rates aloft
will favor large hail. Storms may then persist into western NE and
KS, with potential areas of severe wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/02/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...EASTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...
...Afternoon Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the spatial extent of the
Critical risk area based on updated guidance. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track. Across the Eastern Seaboard, ERCs are
expected to approach the 95-99th percentile on Day 2/Friday. The
Piedmont and portions of the Atlantic Coastal Plain will see RH
values decline to 20-35%, promoting locally elevated fire concerns
to emerge where dry fuels exist. Winds will be the limiting factor,
with terrain-induced gusts up to 10 mph possible.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing over the West will weaken as heights rise.
However, lee troughing will continue over the High Plains and a very
dry airmass remains entrenched over the greater Four Corners region.
...Greater Four Corners Region...
West-southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph
amid minimum RH of 3-12% are expected across the greater Four
Corners region. While more locally critical rather than critical
conditions are expected, steep low-level lapse rates, deep boundary
layer mixing, thermal-induced surface pressure troughing, and enough
flow aloft led to the inclusion of the Critical delineation.
Additionally, this will likely be the end of several consecutive
days of dry/windy conditions across the region where significant
fire activity has transpired. Poor overnight RH recovery will
continue, with 5-15 hours of at least elevated fire weather
conditions expected across the region.
...Northern Great Basin...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible again across portions of
northeast Nevada, northern Utah, and southeast Idaho. Forecast
guidance indicates the best chances of thunderstorms are likely over
places with ERC values between the 50th and 75th percentiles and
have had rainfall at least once this week. While lightning ignitions
cannot be ruled out, an IsoDryT area is not warranted at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0415 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 101200Z
...Discussion...
An upper level trough and strong westerly flow aloft will traverse
the Inland Northwest on Day 3/Saturday, while a surface low in
southern Alberta will send a dry cold front through the region.
Tightening surface pressure gradients should support gusty downslope
winds and low RH across the Columbia Basin, promoting localized fire
concerns where ERCs are forecast to approach the 80th percentile.
Upper-level ridging will gradually build across Southwest on Day
3/Saturday. As high pressure organizes into the Four Corners beyond
Day 4/Sunday, southerly flow aloft will encourage mid-level
monsoonal moisture to advect northward. This pattern will support
daily chances of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms across portions of the
Southwest, Great Basin, and Southern Rockies. A dry sub-cloud layer
should initially inhibit greater rainfall production, increasing the
potential for lightning ignitions where very dry fuels exist. Dry
Thunderstorm probabilities were not included on Days
4-5/Sunday-Monday due to uncertainties in the overlap of stronger
instability and extent of mid-level moisture; however, trends will
be monitored for the introduction of highlights in future outlooks.
Eastern CONUS upper ridging will flatten on Day 3/Saturday as a
shortwave trough slowly traverses the Great Lakes region through Day
5/Monday. Daily chances for precipitation will exist across the
Eastern Seaboard through next week, though portions of the Piedmont
and Southeast will largely remain dry. Localized fire concerns may
emerge where occasionally gusty winds and low RH overlap dry fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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