Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
Northwest mid-level flow will continue across much of the central
and eastern U.S. today, as a cold front advances southward across
Florida. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible south of the front
within a moist airmass across parts of south Florida and the Florida
Keys this afternoon. No severe threat is forecast, and no
thunderstorms are expected over the remainder of the continental
U.S.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 03/28/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern Florida
Peninsula and portions of southern Arizona/southwest New Mexico
Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure is gradually building across the central CONUS
in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage. Aloft, broad-scale
ridging will gradually shift east from the Southwest towards the
lower MS Valley over the next 24 hours. The combination of dry
conditions behind the front and broad subsidence/height rises will
preclude thunderstorms for most regions. Exceptions to this will
likely be the southern Florida peninsula and portions of Arizona and
New Mexico. 00z soundings from south FL sampled sufficient low-level
moisture for surface-based buoyancy, and further moistening is
anticipated over the next 48 hours. While poor lapse rates and weak
deep-layer shear will modulate thunderstorm intensity, a few
thunderstorms appear possible given negligible capping and localized
ascent within a residual frontal zone. Across southern AZ/NM, an
influx of mid-level Pacific moisture coupled with strong
heating/deep mixing will likely support around 250 J/kg SBCAPE by
late afternoon. Weak ascent ahead of a mid-level disturbance and/or
localized orographic ascent may support a few thunderstorms. Deep
inverted-V profiles may support strong downburst winds, but
thunderstorm coverage will likely be too sparse to warrant
highlights.

..Moore.. 03/28/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity
late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow over the central to northern Rockies is forecast to
increase over the next 48-72 hours as an upper ridge shifts towards
the Southeast and a low-amplitude upper wave begins to translate
along the U.S./Canadian border. Lee cyclone development is
anticipated across the northern High Plains by early Monday with
steady intensification expected as it migrates east ahead of the
upper wave. The deepening surface low will promote northward
moisture return through the MS Valley and into the upper Great Lakes
region while eastward advection of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
takes place aloft. Thunderstorm development appears probable
overnight across the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes region as
isentropic ascent increases along the tightening warm frontal zone
of the cyclone.

Elsewhere, more isolated thunderstorms are possible along the
western FL Gulf coast where sea-breeze ascent within a moist and
weakly capped environment should support a few thunderstorms.
Similarly, isolated convection is possible across parts of the lower
MS Valley within a plume of rich low-level moisture. Another day of
isolated, high-based thunderstorms is expected across portions of
the Southwest. Weak deep-layer wind shear across these regions will
limit severe thunderstorm potential. 

....Upper MS Valley/Lake Michigan...
The combination of low-level moistening and steepening lapse rates
aloft will support steady destabilization through Monday and into
Monday night. Model consensus is that 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE should
be in place by Monday evening across the southern WI region.
Initially dry and capped low-level profiles will likely preclude
thunderstorm development during the day, though increasing ascent
within the 925-850 mb warm frontal zone should increase thunderstorm
chances during the 00-06 UTC period. While elevated convection
appears likely, hodograph elongation through the CAPE-bearing layer
should support storm organization, including the potential for a
supercell or two. Although storm motions along the frontal zone hint
that some degree of clustering is probable, at least a localized
hail threat should materialize given the favorable buoyancy/shear
environment.

..Moore.. 03/28/2026