WW 38 SEVERE TSTM TX 110115Z - 110700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 38
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
815 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and North Texas
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 815 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are tracking eastward across TX through a
moist and unstable air mass. A few storms may maintain a risk of
large hail and damaging winds for several more hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Paris TX to 50 miles southwest of Austin TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Hart
WW 37 TORNADO IN MI LM 102345Z - 110600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 37
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
745 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Indiana
Southwest Lower Michigan
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 745 PM
until 200 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...An intense supercell over northeast Illinois will track
eastward into the watch area this evening, while other storms form
along a boundary across the region. Tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging wind gusts will be possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles west southwest of Valparaiso
IN to 75 miles east of South Bend IN. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...WW 35...WW 36...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Hart
WW 36 TORNADO IA IL KS MO 102300Z - 110500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 36
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
600 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Iowa
Western Illinois
Southeast Kansas
Central and Northern Missouri
* Effective this Tuesday night from 600 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a cold front extending
from eastern Kansas into southeast Iowa. A few severe storms are
expected across this region through the evening, with large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Emporia
KS to 65 miles east northeast of Kirksville MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...WW 35...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Hart
WW 35 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN MI WI LM 102240Z - 110500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 35
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
540 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Iowa
Northern Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Southwest Lower Michigan
Southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 540 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and overspread the
watch area through the evening. These storms will pose a risk of
large hail, and perhaps damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from Cedar Rapids IA to 15
miles southeast of Grand Rapids MI. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW
34...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
WW 34 SEVERE TSTM KS 102225Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 34
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South Central Kansas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over northwest Oklahoma will build
northeastward this evening across the watch area. Large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of
Medicine Lodge KS to 50 miles east northeast of Wichita KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Hart
WW 33 TORNADO OK TX 102200Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 33
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
500 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this
afternoon in a warm and moist air mass. Supercells and linear storm
segments are likely, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Ponca City OK to
20 miles east southeast of Brownwood TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.
...Hart
WW 32 TORNADO IA IL IN MO 102055Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 32
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Iowa
Northern and Central Illinois
Far Northwest Indiana
Far Northeast Missouri
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should quickly develop this
afternoon and evening while posing a threat for large to very large
hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will likely
increase through the evening with any supercells that can remain
along and south of a surface boundary draped across southeast Iowa
into north-central Illinois and northwest Indiana. A couple of
strong to intense tornadoes appear possible. Scattered
severe/damaging winds may also occur.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Burlington IA to 100
miles east northeast of Bloomington IL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Gleason
WW 31 TORNADO TX 102010Z - 110300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 31
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
310 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
West-Central Texas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will quickly develop this
afternoon and evening while posing a threat for very large to
possibly giant hail initially (up to 3-4 inches in diameter). The
threat for a few tornadoes will increase this evening with any
persistent supercells, and a strong tornado appears possible. An
increasing threat for severe/damaging winds up to 70-80 mph should
also occur as thunderstorms eventually grow upscale into one or more
bowing clusters.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Abilene TX to 15
miles east southeast of Del Rio TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Gleason
WW 0038 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0038 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0037 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0036 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0035 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0035 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W AVK TO
25 WNW HUT.
..JEWELL..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-015-017-035-077-079-095-115-151-155-173-191-110240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BUTLER CHASE
COWLEY HARPER HARVEY
KINGMAN MARION PRATT
RENO SEDGWICK SUMNER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0033 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BWD
TO 40 WSW MWL TO 35 S SPS TO 15 W FSI TO 30 ENE CSM TO 25 SSW AVK
TO 40 WSW P28.
..JEWELL..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC003-005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-037-047-049-051-
053-063-067-069-071-073-081-083-085-087-093-095-099-103-107-109-
113-117-119-123-125-133-137-151-110240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA ATOKA BLAINE
BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN
CARTER CLEVELAND COAL
COMANCHE COTTON CREEK
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER
LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE
MCCLAIN MAJOR MARSHALL
MURRAY NOBLE OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE STEPHENS WOODS
TXC077-093-097-121-133-143-181-193-221-237-333-337-363-367-425-
497-110240-
WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0032 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE 6R6 TO
70 NE 6R6 TO 30 S SJT TO 45 WSW BWD TO 20 NW BWD TO 45 WNW SEP.
..JEWELL..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 31
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-049-095-105-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-327-385-411-
413-435-463-465-110240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BROWN CONCHO
CROCKETT EDWARDS GILLESPIE
KERR KIMBLE KINNEY
LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON
MENARD REAL SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER SUTTON UVALDE
VAL VERDE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0198 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 32... FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Areas affected...far southeastern Iowa across northern Illinois
Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...
Valid 110051Z - 110145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.
SUMMARY...Several supercells on the immediate frontal zone will pose
a continued risk for all hazards this evening.
DISCUSSION...Multiple strong supercells have developed along the
frontal zone this evening from extreme southeastern IA into northern
IL> As of 0045 UTC, radar and surface data shows most of the storms
remain on the immediate cool side of the front/modified outflow
boundary. To the south of the front, robust surface-based buoyancy
and very strong low-level shear remain in place supportive of all
severe hazards.
Current forecast guidance and observational trends suggest these
storms may briefly become surface-based this evening as they catch
up to the surface front. This appears most likely with the storms to
the southwest of the main cluster (Stark/Marshal Counties IL).
Should this occur, an STP environment of 2-4 would support the risk
for tornadoes, some of which could be strong to intense, along with
very large hail.
Additional storms moving out of eastern MO may move into southern
portions of WW32 this evening. This would continue to support a risk
for all hazards into tonight.
..Lyons.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40689207 41239097 41318933 41448795 41308748 40918740
40678744 40508797 40318935 40159030 40099080 40129106
40159140 40689207
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
MD 0197 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34... FOR EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Areas affected...extreme northern Oklahoma across south-central into
east-central Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34...
Valid 110039Z - 110245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34
continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging hail and wind potential is evident
along the boundary into south-central and eastern Kansas.
DISCUSSION...Cells continue to evolve out of northwest OK and now
approaching the Wichita area. These storms are riding along the
boundary/instability gradient, where shear and instability remain
very favorable for damaging hail. Upstream over central OK, the 00Z
OUN sounding showed 2500 J/kg MLCAPE along with strong mid to high
level winds with elongated hodograph. Similar wind profiles exist
into southern KS, and the low-level jet this evening will maintain a
flow of instability into these storms. An eventual tornado risk may
develop over southeast KS as well later this evening with any
additional discrete development ahead of the existing bows.
..Jewell.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37649611 36999760 36739856 36739889 36989885 37169858
37459836 37779794 38579618 38529557 38239538 37989555
37649611
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 0196 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 35... FOR EASTERN IOWA NORTHERN ILLINOIS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Areas affected...eastern Iowa northern Illinois far southern
Wisconsin into southern Lower Michigan
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35...
Valid 110021Z - 110145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35
continues.
SUMMARY...Numerous supercells will remain capable of significant
hail this evening. Damaging gusts may also be possible as storms
conglomerate tonight.
DISCUSSION...As of 0015 UTC, regional radar imagery showed numerous
thunderstorms ongoing along and north of the warm frontal zone into
parts of IA/IL/WI and MI. Most of these storms are on the cool side
of the boundary and will remain so this evening. Robust MUCAPE
(1000-2000J/kg) and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support
strong supercells over much of WW35.
Given the degree of buoyancy large hail is likely. Isolated very
large hail is also possible with more intense cluster of supercells
on the immediate cool side of the warm front in northern IL as well.
With time, upscale growth into small bowing segments with some
potential for damaging gusts is expected tonight. The severe risk
should continue to increase over much of WW35 this evening. WW35 has
been locally extended farther east across portions of the GRR CWA.
..Lyons.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 41929170 42559109 43228751 43538498 43488451 42118433
42088555 41988617 41838698 41468748 41258850 40998978
41069080 41349154 41929170
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
MD 0195 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 33... FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Areas affected...much of central Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 33...
Valid 102353Z - 110300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 33 continues.
SUMMARY...The environment is becoming more favorable for tornadoes
along and east of I-35 in Oklahoma, along with damaging hail threat.
DISCUSSION...A supercell is currently moving across eastern Canadian
into Oklahoma County, with another supercell currently over Cotton
moving into Stephens County. Given the discrete nature of these
cells, they will likely continue to pose a destructive hail and
tornado threat for several hours and they approach and move across
the I-35 corridor.
The latest TLX VWP is showing a gradual increase in low-level shear,
with 0-1 SRH now over 150 m2/s2. The OK Mesonet shows more robust
dewpoints generally along and south of a line from CHK to SNL with
65 to 67 F.
As such, over the next few hours, the low-level shear and
environment in general should continue to favor supercells with both
tornado and large hail risk, as these cells move across I-35. A
potentially even greater tornado risk could develop in the 00-03Z
time frame as the low-level jet increases.
..Jewell.. 03/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34149850 35919809 36299708 36089666 35579651 35019646
34709657 34369709 34149850
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
MD 0193 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 31... FOR WESTERN NORTH TX SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Areas affected...western North TX southward toward the Rio Grande
Valley
Concerning...Tornado Watch 31...
Valid 102324Z - 110130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 31 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging hail, wind, and a few tornadoes
persist within the entire watch area.
DISCUSSION...Scattered storms extend from western North TX all the
way south toward the Del Rio vicinity, where a massive supercell is
producing significant hail and a tornado. Another cell with a
history of tornadoes east of Abilene is near the KDYX radar. In
between these cells, a broken line of storms extends south along the
length of the dryline.
The air mass east of this region remain quite unstable for this time
of year, with MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg and effective deep-layer shear
over 50 kt. 0-1 SRH is not particularly strong, but in the 100-150
m2/s2 range which will still support a tornado risk. Given the mixed
storm modes, all hazards remain possible in the near term.
..Jewell/Hart.. 03/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29750144 31240055 32220000 32699944 33009851 32819797
31969822 30939879 29879922 29509945 29320006 29300097
29750144
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from
the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to
intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail.
...01z Update...
Large reservoir of MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg extends across
the southern Plains through the mid MS Valley into northwest
Indiana. Latest surface analysis depicts a weak surface low near the
IA/MO/IL border, lifting northeast in line with earlier model
guidance. A very sharp warm front extends across northern IL into
lower MI and this will serve as the demarcation for surface-based
convection through sunrise.
Scattered supercells have developed along and just south of the warm
front, immediately ahead of the surface low. This aligns with
earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for potentially strong
tornadoes along with very large hail. 00z sounding from ILX strongly
supports this with very steep lapse rates and strong instability.
Additionally, 0-3km SRH is on the order of 300 m2/s2. This activity
will spread/develop east/northeast along/near the warm front, as
currently depicted by the Moderate Risk.
Farther southwest across the central Plains, isolated severe
supercells are developing along the cold front across northwest
MO-south central KS. These storms should gradually increase in areal
coverage later this evening as they advance downstream as LLJ is
forecast to increase across eastern OK into central MO.
Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low over
northeast Mexico/far west TX. This feature is beginning to open up
as it ejects northeast. Leading edge of large-scale ascent has
overspread the dry line, and earlier supercell activity is beginning
to evolve into a linear MCS from the Edwards Plateau into portions
of northwest TX. This activity should continue to grow upscale as it
spreads downstream, as strengthening LLJ across central TX will
support ongoing organization. 00z soundings from both FWD and OUN
exhibit very steep lapse rates, strong 0-6km shear, and strong
instability and this strongly suggests the potential for
longer-lived supercells and QLCS.
..Darrow.. 03/11/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
The large-scale pattern remains progressive through the forecast
period with the jet stream favoring northern portions of the CONUS.
A trough will move through the Great Lakes region on Day 3/Thursday
with another trough and associated jet max moving through the same
areas again on Day 4/Friday, leaving much of the western and central
CONUS under west to northwest flow as a ridge builds over the West
Coast. Another trough moves into the Pacific Northwest on Day
5/Saturday and digs into the southern CONUS on Day 6/Sunday before
approaching the Eastern Seaboard by Day 7/Monday.
On Day 3/Thursday, surface temperatures will rebound 5-15 degrees
above normal across much of central CONUS. This will lead to a well
mixed atmosphere with the jet stream positioned over the northern
1/3 of the CONUS. Thus, dry air and windy conditions will reach the
surface with the strongest northwest winds of 20-30 mph over western
Nebraska and also westerly winds of 20-30 mph in a somewhat narrow
corridor over east-central New Mexico and much of the Texas
Panhandle.
On Day 4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday, conditions aloft will be fairly
similar throughout both days with downslope flow likely from near
the Colorado Front Range through eastern New Mexico. These days will
have to be watched closely to determine if higher probabilities of
critical conditions will need to be introduced with future
issuances.
On Day 6/Sunday, the jet reaches farther south into the Southwest
and southern High Plains as the aforementioned large scale trough
digs farther south toward the region. Forecast guidance remains
uncertain due to the track and timing of the trough as it progresses
eastward. However, it's likely given the pattern that portions of
this area bear at least a 40% chance of critical conditions as a
cold front pushes south through the central/southern Plains.
At the end of the forecast period, much of the western CONUS will be
continuing to experience several consecutive days of drier and
warmer than normal conditions. While fuels are not yet receptive in
many of these areas, these anomalous conditions for mid March could
begin to affect fuel dryness well ahead of seasonal norms.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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