Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are expected from
Kansas into western Texas, with isolated overnight activity into
parts of the lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will slowly move across the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic today, with a surface high moving into the eastern CONUS
with offshore flow across the East Coast. Behind this system,
shortwave ridging aloft will move toward the MS Valley during the
day as a progressive shortwave trough affects the central and
northern Plains. This wave will bring rapid cooling aloft across the
Dakotas and into the upper MS Valley during the day, with subtle
height falls extending into the Central Plains. 

While the primary surface low will be over Canada, a secondary low
is expected to form over western KS by late afternoon, with the
surface trough extending fully from the TX Panhandle northward into
Manitoba. Southerly winds across the Plains will aid the development
of a narrow moist axis from eastern TX into eastern KS and NE during
the day, with elevated moisture/warmth developing toward the mid MS
Valley overnight with a 40-50 kt low-level jet.

...KS...
An isolated supercell or two may develop during the late afternoon
just downstream of the low-level lapse rate plume and near the
narrow axis of 60s dewpoints near I-35. Surface convergence will not
be particularly strong, but forecast soundings indicate a narrow
zone of uncapped and unstable air mass. Steep lapse rates aloft,
veering winds with height, and 500 mb winds around 30 kt will
conditionally favor slow-moving supercells producing large hail. If
moisture quality verifies near the upper end of the guidance, hail
over 2.00" diameter may occur.

...Southern High Plains...
Strong heating will lead to deep inverted-v profiles across western
TX including the Panhandles. Relatively cool temperature aloft as
well as convergence within the surface trough will favor scattered
high based thunderstorms, with threat of dry microbursts over a
relatively large zone from the South Plains into southwest KS.

...Lower MS/Mid MS Valleys...
During the evening and overnight, lift associated with a 50+ kt
southwesterly low-level jet will bring elevated instability eastward
out of KS and into MO, southern IA an western IL as minimal height
falls occur. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated MUCAPE
with steep mid/upper lapse rates, thought shear in the cloud-bearing
layer will be marginal. This should support elevated storms over
much of northern MO, southern IA and western IL overnight with
activity spreading southeast. Isolated strong gusts cannot be ruled
out given the generally dry sub-cloud layer as storms amass.

..Jewell.. 05/14/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
West to west-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on
Friday across the central U.S, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the central Plains. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection
will raise surface dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s F from the
eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri
Valley. A surface low will deepen over far western Oklahoma, with an
inverted trough extending northward into central Kansas and
northeastward into southeast Nebraska. Isolated convective
initiation is expected near and to the east of the surface trough
during the late afternoon. Convective coverage should gradually
increase in the evening as low-level warm advection strengthens.

By late afternoon, model forecast show a pocket of moderate to
strong instability over northeast Kansas. Forecast soundings at 00Z
in this area have MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear near 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in
the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells
will also be capable of severe wind gusts. During the late evening
and overnight, a severe threat may continue over parts of the
central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens. Isolated severe
storms will be possible in northwestern Kansas late in the period,
as a secondary shortwave approaches.

Further south into parts of western Oklahoma, a capping inversion is
forecast to be in place during the late afternoon and early evening.
However, lapse rates are forecast to be very steep with some models
showing 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. In addition, moderate
deep-layer shear is forecast. If a cell can initiate in spite of the
cap, then supercells with large hail would be possible.

...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
Low-level moisture will gradually increase across the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Although
instability is forecast to remain weak, isolated thunderstorms may
initiate as a low-level jet moves into the region from the
southwest. By mid to late evening, MUCAPE is forecast to increase
into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots over
much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. For this reason,
isolated severe storms will be possible, with strong wind gusts and
hail as the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and associated stronger mid-level westerly
flow will push into the northern Plains while upper ridging slides
over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a dry cold front extending
south of a central Canadian surface low will permit a breezy post
frontal environment, bringing widespread fire weather concerns to
the northern/central Plains. Farther south, tightening surface
pressure gradients east of the CO/NM higher terrain will promote
enhanced downslope flow and deep layer mixing. Increasing mid-level
moisture and subtle forcing associating with an approaching short
wave impulse could aid in high-based thunderstorm development across
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles.

...Northern Plains...
Strong post frontal westerly winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 20-30%
amid dry fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat across
the Dakotas. Farther west, more pronounced deep-layer westerly flow
will yield sustained west winds of 30-45 mph across central and
eastern MT during peak afternoon heating. Limited RH reductions,
light precipitation over the last 24 hours, and green up across
southern MT should mitigate an otherwise critical fire weather
environment. Ahead of an eastward progressing cold front, strong
southerly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) will persist
through the afternoon hours across northwestern IA into western MN.
Despite modest RH values of 25-35%, a mixed fuelscape of partial
green up and sporadic dry fuels combined with very strong winds
could support fire spread. Thus, Elevated highlights have been
expanded to encompass this threat.

...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph amid RH of 15-20% will support
Elevated fire weather concerns from far southeastern AZ into much of
southeastern NM and the southern Plains where delayed green up has
allowed fuels to remain receptive. Ascent associated with the
arrival of the mid-level perturbation alongside afternoon heating
and resultant instability should support showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the OK/TX Panhandles and adjacent CO/KS areas
this afternoon. Forecast soundings depict PWATs of 0.6-0.8" with a
prominent dry sub-cloud layer up to 3 km. This should limit
appreciable precipitation at the surface, allowing the threat of dry
thunderstorms to evolve. Gusty outflow winds and some lightning
ignitions are possible in existing dry fuels where an IsoDryT risk
has been maintained.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...