Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
While strong/gusty winds remain possible across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast this afternoon and evening, the threat for organized
severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes have been made to the existing General
Thunderstorm areas. A band of low-topped convection is moving across
eastern PA toward northern NJ this afternoon, with sporadic strong
to severe gusts noted with this feature. Organized convection is not
expected due to negligible buoyancy, but strong deep-layer winds
associated with a powerful mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold
front moving across the eastern CONUS will continue to support
strong/damaging gusts both near and removed from any remaining
convection.

..Dean.. 12/19/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level
flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will
likewise develop eastward across these regions through the
afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A
loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ,
and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of
hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating
with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in
place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should
continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm
advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor
thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection
to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm activity is expected on Sunday across the USA.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will move across the Northeast on Sunday, with
generally zonal flow extending to the west. At the surface, high
pressure will move eastward across the Midwest during day, and
toward the Mid Atlantic by Monday morning. As result of the dry air
mass, stable conditions will be prevalent over much of the central
and eastern CONUS.

To the west, a weak midlevel feature will approach the Pacific
Northwest with cooling aloft as a cold front approaches the WA/OR
Coast around 00Z. Little if any instability is forecast to be
present except primarily over the ocean. Farther south, southwest
flow with midlevel moisture and lift will be prevalent across much
of northern CA, and weak elevated instability is forecast by some of
the models. However, overall thunderstorm/lightning coverage will
likely be quite low.

..Jewell.. 12/19/2025

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LLANO ESTACADO...

The Critical area was modified slightly, and the Elevated area
expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast
guidance. Gusty winds associated with the cold frontal passage is
likely to result in locally elevated/elevated fire weather
conditions in portions of the Texas Panhandle, southwest Kansas, and
northwest Texas. While RH increases and temperatures decrease by the
evening, breezy to gusty northeast winds behind a wind shift is of
concern. Additionally, locally critical conditions are likely in
portions of the Trans Pecos, especially in leeside, wind prone
locations.

..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and
eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high
pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low
drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal
boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph
sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least
a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico
into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical
highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus
depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH
amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...