Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update - Florida...

The 00z RAOB from MFL showed modest instability, but warm
temperatures through 700 mb. This should largely limit thunderstorm
activity, especially inland. Nevertheless, a few lightning flashes
remain possible through tonight near the immediate coast or over the
offshore waters from the Keys through southeast FL.

..Leitman.. 01/14/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the
Keys today.

...Synopsis...

A large-scale upper trough will deepen and pivot eastward over the
eastern half of the CONUS today. An embedded shortwave within the
base of the large-scale trough will move across the eastern Gulf and
FL today. This will provide large-scale ascent atop a stalled
frontal boundary across the southern FL Peninsula. Adequate moisture
will support modest buoyancy. However, lackluster lapse rates/warm
temperatures through the midlevels will preclude strong-storm
potential, though a few lightning flashes will be possible.

..Leitman/Lyons.. 01/14/2026