Mesoscale Discussion 0129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern New York into southern and
central New England

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 032352Z - 040545Z

SUMMARY...An area of freezing rain, with some snow on the northern
edge, will continue for the next 4-6 hours.

DISCUSSION...A broad precipitation shield is ongoing across portions
of eastern New York into southern and central New England this
afternoon amidst broad isentropic ascent within the 925-700 mb
layer. Area VWPs have sampled increasing 1-3 km AGL flow over the
past few hours to 40-50 knots. Aided by ascent within the right
entrance region of an upper-level jet streak, this is supporting
ongoing freezing rain, with rates occasionally exceeding 0.06" per 3
hours. Forecast soundings indicate the 850 mb warm nose will expand
farther north this evening amidst the low-level warm air advection
regime. With surface temperatures forecast to remain below freezing
(upper 20s to lower 30s), expectation is for freezing rain to
persist for the next 4-6 hours with a gradual northward expansion.
The greatest potential for heavier rates is anticipated along a
corridor from far eastern New York across western Massachusetts and
into far southern New Hampshire where the strongest ascent is
forecast to overlap favorable thermodynamic profiles to support the
heaviest precipitation rates. Farther to the north, maximum column
temperatures are likely to remain below freezing and are expected to
support snow as the primary precipitation type. Veering low-level
winds and drier mid-level air will then accompany a cold frontal
passage later tonight, bringing an end to precipitation by 8-10 UTC
(3-5 AM EST).

..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   41897071 41637094 41387151 41317225 41277299 41237350
            41357412 41527440 42177445 42557418 42907344 43167266
            43417190 43617116 43547064 43347049 43127046 42807061
            42427065 42007066 41897071 

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...

CORRECTED FOR TESTING THE CORRECTION PROCESS

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk continues across parts of the southern/central
Plains into Missouri and western Illinois. Moisture continues
northward, observed in visible satellite and 60 F dew points 
increasing from the south into southern Kansas. Thunderstorm
development is still expected to be delayed into the evening as
modest capping remains in place. Some conditional risk for large
hail (some up to 1.5-2" in diameter) will be possible, mainly across
northwest Oklahoma into southern Kansas. In this region, a favorable
overlap of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will overlap with steep
mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear near the frontal
boundary.

..Thornton.. 03/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026/

...Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the central Rockies and this feature will move into the central
High Plains late tonight.  A frontal zone this morning is draped
from near the Raton Mesa into the TX Panhandle extends
east-northeastward across northern OK into the Ozarks.  A weak
surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning
will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening. 
Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist fetch into OK today
and into the Ozarks and parts of the mid MS Valley.  A dryline is
forecast to mix eastward across the southern High Plains by late
this afternoon, intersecting the surface front in the northwest
TX/southwest OK vicinity.

Convection will likely be inhibited during the day across much of
the MRGL Risk owing to both capping and weak mid-level shortwave
ridging.  The strongest heating and low-level convergence is
forecast across parts of northwest TX/southwest OK where convective
inhibition will become weakened by late afternoon.  Have adjusted
severe hail probabilities farther south into parts of northwest TX
to account for the potential for a supercell or two this evening
into the overnight hours.  As large-scale forcing for ascent
continues to strengthen through the evening into the overnight,
expected widely scattered thunderstorms to eventually develop near
the frontal zone (perhaps favoring a northwest OK/southern KS
corridor).  Large hail will be the hazard with the stronger storms. 
Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may
pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS
into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
into Thursday night from west Texas into Kansas.  Large hail appears
to be the main threat, though a couple of tornadoes and isolated
severe gusts will also be possible.

...Southern/central Plains Thursday afternoon/night...
Amplification of a midlevel trough is expected near the Four Corners
Thursday into Thursday night, as a downstream lee cyclone deepens
across eastern CO.  The deepening cyclone will draw moisture
northward from TX across the southern/central Plains through early
Friday in the developing warm sector.  The lee trough/dryline will
be located near or just west of the KS/CO and TX/NM borders by late
afternoon as the cyclone deepens in place.  Surface heating in cloud
breaks could allow sufficient vertical mixing to weaken convective
inhibition and allow isolated thunderstorm development along and
just east of the dryline by late afternoon across the TX
Panhandle/South Plains into southwest KS.  The storm environment
will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing large hail
near or just in excess of 2 inches in diameter.  The tornado threat
will be a little greater by early evening as low-level shear
increases and near 60 F dewpoints surge northward from OK into KS,
though the tornado threat will depend on a supercell or two
persisting into late evening.

Otherwise, elevated convection will spread northeastward Thursday
night as the low-level jet and associated warm/moist advection
increase.  Steep midlevel lapse rates will support the potential for
large hail with the overnight convection as far north as NE/IA.

..Thompson.. 03/03/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

An upper-level trough will track southeast and deepen over the
Intermountain West Day 3/Thursday with an associated surface cyclone
developing on the central High Plains. The flow aloft is likely to
split with an upper-level trough tracking northeast across the
central Plains into the Great Lakes Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday
and another upper low likely retrograding southwest over Baja
California by Day 5/Saturday. Forecast uncertainty increases late in
the period regarding the large-scale pattern, especially the
evolution of the cutoff low over northwest Mexico/southwest US. 

...Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday: southern/central High Plains...
Southwest flow will increase on Day 3/Thursday behind a sharpening
dryline on the southern/central High Plains. Southwest sustained
surface winds of 15-30 mph gusting 25-50 mph amid minimum RH of
5-20% are expected across much of New Mexico, southeast Colorado,
far west Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwest Kansas.
Probabilities of critical conditions are highest across eastern New
Mexico into southeast Colorado. The eastern extent of
elevated/critical fire weather conditions will depend on the dryline
location, while the western extent will be limited due to less
receptive fuels. Forecast precipitation on Day 1/Tuesday night is
expected to limit elevated/critical fire weather conditions
along/east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristos for Day
3/Thursday, but this will be monitored in subsequent outlooks. High
clouds are also likely to overspread portions of the 40/70% risk
areas, which may help mitigate fire weather conditions. 

The dryline will be a focus for Day 3/Thursday late afternoon and
evening thunderstorm development, with the potential for a narrow
corridor of dry thunderstorms from the Caprock into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. However, the
potential for upscale convective growth, a high PWAT/dewpoint
airmass adjacent to the dryline, and dryline placement/movement are
all sources of forecast uncertainty regarding an isolated dry
thunderstorm risk area.

On Day 4/Friday, the dryline will mix farther east with an
approaching cold front pushing southeast across the central Plains.
Between the dryline and cold front, another round of elevated to
critical fire weather conditions are expected, but the probability
of critical conditions are closer to 50%, thus precluding a 70% area
at this time. The northern/eastern portions of the 40% area are the
most uncertain due the previous day/night's (i.e., Day 3/Thursday)
rainfall, how far east the dryline will move, and the progression of
the approaching cold front.

..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...