Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing damaging winds are expected across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. More isolated severe thunderstorms are
expected from the mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region
as well as across parts of the southern High Plains and central
Plains.

...Synopsis...
00 UTC upper-air analyses and latest GOES water-vapor imagery depict
several perturbations within a low-amplitude upper trough in place
over the central CONUS. The first of these perturbations is analyzed
over the mid-MS Valley and is expected to migrate east towards the
Mid-Atlantic region by mid-afternoon. A more pronounced shortwave
trough is evident over central Canada into the northern Plains. This
feature, along with an attendant surface low and trailing cold
front, will move eastward through the day, reaching the Great Lakes
region by tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances will
primarily be associated with these synoptic features, though more
localized corridors of strong/severe thunderstorms may emerge across
the southern High Plains and parts of the Ozarks associated with
outflow boundaries from ongoing convection. 

...Mid-Atlantic...
The weak upper perturbation currently over the MS Valley is forecast
to reach the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region by
mid-afternoon. Strong heating of an seasonally moist air mass
(dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) will compensate for otherwise
meager mid-level lapse rates and support MLCAPE values of 1000-2000
J/kg with minimal capping by early afternoon. A combination of weak
synoptic lift aided by localized orographic ascent should promote
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the 18-20 UTC
period. Most CAM guidance depicts a reasonably strong signal for
thunderstorm clustering and upscale growth as storms spread
northeast towards the I-95 corridor around peak heating. Although
winds through the lowest 2-3 km will remain fairly modest, steep
low-level lapse rates and around 25 knots of effective bulk shear
should promote loosely organized clusters/lines with embedded swaths
of damaging winds. 
 
...Mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region...
Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected early this
morning, possibly as early as 12-14 UTC across portions of eastern
MN. This early activity will likely be elevated in nature, but 30-35
knot mid-level flow should support adequate hodograph elongation for
a few organized cells capable of severe hail. With time, diurnal
heating/destabilization downstream and persistent forcing along the
front should promote steady intensification and upscale growth of
convection with a transition to primarily a wind risk across WI and
the Upper Peninsula of MI. Further south, more isolated thunderstorm
coverage across southern MN, IA, and eastern NE may support a
supercell or two with an attendant threat for large hail as well as
severe wind. 

...Southern High Plains into the Ozarks...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast NM
into the TX Panhandle this afternoon - driven by either orographic
ascent along the Sange de Cristo mountains and/or the Raton Mesa or
lift along a residual outflow boundary associated with an ongoing,
but fairly confined, MCS across the northern TX Panhandle (as of 06
UTC). Regardless of the forcing mechanism, convection developing
across this region will mature in an environment featuring fairly
weak wind shear, but a deeply-mixed boundary layer conducive for
severe downbursts. Despite considerable variance in storm placement
and coverage in latest CAM ensembles, the consistent signal for
severe downbursts warrants low-end severe wind probabilities. 

Further east into eastern OK and the Ozarks, a focused corridor of
thunderstorms will likely emerge on the outflow boundary of a
convective cluster developing across eastern KS (as of 06 UTC). Some
CAM solutions hint that sporadic large hail and/or damaging
downbursts will be possible with this activity, but considerable
uncertainty on where and how intense this activity will be limits
confidence on introducing additional risk areas. 

...Nebraska/South Dakota...
Elevated convection is expected to develop across portions of
northern NE and southern SD during the overnight hours tonight as
isentropic ascent increases in tandem with a modest intensification
of a low-level jet.  Low-level moistening through 850 mb under a
plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates should promote a adequate
buoyancy few robust updrafts (though confidence in storm coverage is
limited due to the weak nature of the forcing for ascent). However,
strong shear across the region will likely promote organized
convection, including a supercell or two, capable of producing large
hail.

..Moore/Marsh.. 08/07/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Central and Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place on Saturday over
much of the north-central U.S. as the southern edge of a jet streak
moves across the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southward through the Dakotas. To the south of the front, a
moist axis is forecast to be in place from central South Dakota
southward into southern Nebraska and eastward into north-central
Missouri. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop
along the moist axis by afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be
relatively weak throughout the region which will keep convection
isolated. The most favorable areas for isolated thunderstorm
development could be over central and eastern Nebraska, where some
models focus low-level convergence near a low-level jet in the
evening. Additional storms could develop along a moisture gradient
in northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings from Nebraska into
southern South Dakota in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the
35 to 45 knot range with steep low-level lapse rates. This could
support supercells and organized multicells capable of severe wind
gusts and hail. Isolated severe gusts could also occur southeastward
along and near the instability gradient in northern Missouri.

..Broyles.. 08/07/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of the central and
northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes
region.

...Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southern Great
Lakes...
At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the
north-central states on Sunday, being positioned from South Dakota
eastward into Wisconsin by afternoon. Surface dewpoints near and to
the south of the front will be in the 60s and 70s F, which will
contribute to the development of moderate instability. Large-scale
ascent over this unstable airmass will remain relatively weak. In
spite of this, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in areas
where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Model forecasts
suggest that the most favorable locations could be near the front in
South Dakota and from northeastern Nebraska into southern Iowa along
the northern edge of the stronger low-level flow. In both of these
locations, moderate to strong instability coupled with moderate
deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. Severe
wind gusts will be the most likely hazard during the late afternoon
and early evening with cell clusters or short line segments that
move southeastward along and near the instability axis. Hail could
also occur mainly in the central and northern Plains, where
mid-level lapse rates will be steepest.

..Broyles.. 08/07/2026