Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a
tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be
possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...Mid-Atlantic...
The remnants of Isaias will move through the southern Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a moist airmass will advect
northeastward across North Carolina and eastern Virginia, where
dewpoints will increase into the 70s F. MLCAPE is forecast to peak
in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Carolina
Piedmont this morning and move northeastward into the lower
elevations of eastern North Carolina and south-central Virginia
early this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from near Raleigh
northward to west of Richmond around midday have long curved
hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 225
m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that
remain discrete. The tornado threat should persist into the evening
as the stronger storms move toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Desert Southwest/Four Corners...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward today from the
Desert Southwest into the Four Corners region. At the surface, an
axis of low-level moisture will be in place from southwestern
Arizona extending northeastward toward the Four Corners. Weak
instability will develop along this southwest-to-northeast corridor
as surface temperature warm. Large-scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Forecast soundings from western Arizona into
southeast Utah this afternoon have strong unidirectional winds from
the south-southwest in the low to mid-levels. The resultant strong
deep-layer shear could support a marginal wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/11/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper low initially over the Columbia Basin will develop south to
the Sierra Nevada, while an embedded vorticity maximum progresses
through the basal portion that feature from central/southern CA
through the lower-CO Valley into the Great Basin. Downstream from
those developments, a low-amplitude short-wave trough is forecast to
translate from the northern or central High Plains into the upper
Midwest and neighboring Upper Great Lakes regions by Monday night.
At the surface, an area of low pressure initially over central NE
will develop along a boundary into southern MN by late afternoon or
early evening before reaching central WI Monday night.


...Upper Midwest...

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region on
Monday, atop a moistening boundary layer, yielding a moderately
unstable but capped air mass by afternoon along and south of the
surface boundary and approaching cyclone. Elevated thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the north of the surface warm sector over the
northern Plains Monday morning within a zone of forcing for ascent
preceding the short-wave trough. That convective regime is expected
to spread into portions of MN and WI late Monday afternoon into
night, amidst a thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE generally
less than 1000 J/kg. While a few instances of hail approaching one
inch appear possible, larger sizes are expected to be limited by the
marginal instability and generally less than 30-35 kt of effective
bulk shear.


...Lower Colorado Valley into the Great Basin...

Increased forcing for ascent ahead of the vorticity maximum is
expected to foster an areal increase in low-topped thunderstorms
Monday afternoon, which are likely to continue into Monday night.
Generally weak instability should limit severe weather potential;
however, in areas where low-level lapse rates can sufficiently
steepen, the downward transfer of stronger winds aloft could yield a
few gusts approaching 58 mph. Some small hail may also accompany the
strongest updrafts.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms appear possible over portions of the
central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. More
isolated severe weather may occur into the mid Mississippi Valley,
and in parts of the lower Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A midlevel low will slowly progress through the Great Basin with a
downstream belt of enhanced, mid/upper-level flow extending from the
southern Rockies into the Great Lakes. Within that airstream, a
short-wave trough will progress from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, while a more subtle disturbance advances from the central
and southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an
area of low pressure associated with the former disturbance
mentioned above is expected to develop from lower MI through the
northern Mid-Atlantic into New England with a boundary trailing that
feature from the southern Great Lakes into the central High Plains,
where it will link with a deepening lee cyclone over southeast CO.


...Central and Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...

While midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly
steep, daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the
mid 60s to lower 70s is expected to contribute to a moderately
unstable warm sector by afternoon. The specific details regarding
convective evolution remain uncertain; however, forcing for ascent
associated with the midlevel disturbance and convergence in the
vicinity of the synoptic front, dryline, and lee cyclone are likely
to aid in diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development. Highest
confidence in that occurrence remains over portions of southwest KS
into the OK and TX Panhandles, where the low-level mass response to
the deepening CO low will be the greatest from late afternoon into
evening. Vertical shear will be sufficiently strong to support
supercells capable of mainly large hail initially. Tornado potential
may increase during the evening with any ongoing supercells as the
low-level jet strengthens. Upscale growth into one or multiple storm
complexes appears possible, at which point, the threat for damaging
winds would correspondingly increase.

An areal expansion in level-2/Slight Risk probabilities may be
required in later outlooks once finer-scale details become more
clear.


...Lower Great Lakes...

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning within a
zone of low-level warm advection and moisture transport preceding
the surface low and short-wave trough. Clouds and precipitation may
linger into afternoon, limiting the destabilization in those areas.
However, where stronger heating can occur, the presence of
boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will support at least a
marginally unstable environment by afternoon. Both low-level and
deep-layer shear will be relatively strong, and on the condition
that surface-based storms develop and are sustained, the threat for
locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would exist.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026