WW 101 SEVERE TSTM TX 120600Z - 121300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and North Texas
* Effective this Sunday morning from 100 AM until 800 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A linear band of storms, with embedded bows/brief
circulations, will continue generally northeastward tonight. With
some additional increase in low-level moisture, as well as
low-level/mid-level winds, concern is that damaging wind, and
perhaps brief tornado, potential may persist through the early
morning hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast
of Mineral Wells TX to 135 miles south of Brownwood TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 100...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
22030.
...Guyer
WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 101
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW JCT TO
60 ENE JCT TO 55 SE BWD TO 25 NW SEP TO 40 S SPS.
..BROYLES..04/12/26
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 101
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-027-031-035-053-099-143-145-171-193-209-221-237-259-265-
281-299-309-331-363-367-425-453-491-120840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BELL BLANCO
BOSQUE BURNET CORYELL
ERATH FALLS GILLESPIE
HAMILTON HAYS HOOD
JACK KENDALL KERR
LAMPASAS LLANO MCLENNAN
MILAM PALO PINTO PARKER
SOMERVELL TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DRT TO
10 WSW JCT TO 35 NE JCT.
..BROYLES..04/12/26
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 100
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-267-319-385-411-120740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN KIMBLE MASON
REAL SAN SABA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 12 11:05:04 UTC 2026.SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes.
...Synopsis...
Southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist from the southern Plains
to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. An upper trough over the western U.S.
will slowly pivot eastward, emerging over the central/southern High
Plains by Sunday morning. Surface low pressure will remain centered
over the central Plains, with troughing extending southwestward into
west TX. A cold front will slowly sag southward across portions of
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. The surface trough/dryline
and the boundary across the Great Lakes will become a focus for
thunderstorm activity through the forecast period.
...Lower MO Valley to the Great Lakes vicinity...
Convection may be ongoing across portions of the region Tuesday
morning. This activity should spread east, and persistent warm
advection should allow for airmass recovery during the afternoon.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread mid 60s F dewpoints, and
moderate to strong destabilization is forecast. Stronger height
falls are not expected across the region, as the main upper trough
will be focused well to the southwest. However, warm advection atop
a southward-sagging surface boundary should support isolated to
scattered storm development by late afternoon/evening. Supercell
wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, suggesting an
all-hazards risk. Given uncertainty related to potential airmass
contamination from early day convection and cloud cover, and
potential capping concerns, will maintain Slight risk (level 2 of
5). However, a rather volatile thermodynamic and kinematic
environment will exist across portions of the region, and higher
probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks depending on
forecast trends and mesoscale details.
...Southern Plains vicinity...
Large-scale ascent will begin overspreading the region by late
afternoon/evening as the western upper trough finally begins to
eject eastward. As this occurs, mixing and convergence along a
surface dryline should support at least isolated storm development
by around 00z. Steep midlevel lapse rates and mid/upper 60s F
dewpoints will support strong destabilization amid supercell wind
profiles. Large to very large hail will be possible in addition to
strong wind gusts and a tornado or two.
..Leitman.. 04/12/2026
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wed - Southern Plains to southern Wisconsin...
An upper trough will be oriented over the central/southern High
Plains Wednesday morning. This feature will shift east to the
Mississippi River by Thursday morning. As this occurs, strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist and unstable
airmass from TX toward the Great Lakes. Some convection may be
ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in some uncertainty regarding
airmass recovery and convective evolution during the
afternoon/evening. However, persistent southerly low-level flow
ahead of a dryline and continued warm advection should support areas
of airmass recovery. A mix of supercells and linear segments will be
possible, posing an all-hazards severe risk.
...Day 5/Thu...
Severe potential should be lower on Thursday as the upper trough and
weakens at it shifts east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley into the TN Valley, with modest instability and
limited heating tempering severe potential.
...Day 6/Fri - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...
Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several
forecast cycles in bringing a large-scale upper eastward from the
Rockies into the Plains Friday/Friday night. This should result in
surface cyclogenesis across portions of the Upper Midwest with a
trailing cold front extending into the southern Plains. Ahead of the
front, a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place beneath
strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow. This should support a
severe risk ahead of the front.
...Days 7-8/Sat-Sun...
The upper trough will continue east over the eastern U.S. on
Saturday and Sunday. Stronger ascent will shift northeast into
Canada. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
narrowing warm sector should limit severe potential.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad and intensifying southwest flow aloft and an intensifying
surface cyclone progressing from the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will be responsible for widespread dry and windy conditions
across much of the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains this
afternoon.
...Southwest and Four Corners...
Deeply mixed and dry boundary layer profiles will support strong
southwesterly surface winds across much of the Southwest into the
Four Corners region, reaching 20 MPH (gusting 25-30 in some regions)
with widespread relative humidity of 10-15%. These conditions will
coincide with a wide array of fuel conditions ranging from
marginally to modestly receptive. Locally Critical conditions may
occur, with some signal for a corridor of stronger winds in
south-central Utah. However, overall marginal fuels and lack of
confidence in the duration and magnitude of surface winds reaching
Critical criteria preclude highlights at this time.
...Central High Plains...
Surface conditions behind the dryline in the Central High Plains
will be quite gusty and dry, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative
humidity as low as 10% across much of the region. However, these
conditions overlap a complex fuelsape where recent showers and
thunderstorms have dampened fuels across portions of
central/southern Colorado into New Mexico. Further north into
portions of Wyoming and Nebraska, where fuels are more receptive,
winds are expected to remain at or around 20 MPH, with gusts
exceeding 25 MPH. Locally critical conditions may occur in portions
of northern Nebraska.
...Ohio River Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley...
Ongoing drought conditions coupled with dry and breezy southerly
flow will result in Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions
of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley. Surface winds
of 10-15 MPH and relative humidity of 25-35% will overlap with fuels
exceeding the 95th-99th annual ERC percentiles.
..Halbert.. 04/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Broad southwesterly mid level flow in advance of a trough
progressing from California into the Great Basin will be responsible
for widespread dry and windy conditions from southeastern New Mexico
all the way into portions of eastern Wyoming and South Dakota.
Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast for portions of
southeastern Colorado into portions of far western Kansas and
northern New Mexico.
...Eastern New Mexico/Adjacent High Plains...
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for southeastern
Colorado into portions of far northeastern New Mexico and far
western Kansas. Minimum relative humidity of 10-15% and winds of 25
MPH will overlap with critically receptive fuels. While Critical
meteorological conditions appear they could extend further south and
west of the current area, recent wetting rainfall and a lack of
receptive fuels currently limit the expansion of highlights. Still,
there are some pockets of receptive fuels in portions of Oklahoma
into the Texas Panhandle that have yet to receive rain, and some
additional highlights may be warranted in future updates. A
secondary area of concern in the ensemble guidance could be portions
of northern Nebraska into South Dakota/Wyoming, where some members
have come in with winds of 25-30 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15%
over receptive fuels. However, ensemble spread in the surface winds
reduces confidence to introduce these highlights, especially given
the members with the strongest winds are models that tend to bias
towards aggressive mixing. Still, this area will be monitored for
additional highlights in future updates.
...Mid Atlantic...
Dry southeasterly return flow is forecast across portions of North
Carolina into much of Virginia, where fuels currently exceed the
95th-99th annual percentiles for ERCs. Winds are expected to reach
10-15 MPH with relative humidity around 25-35%, supporting Elevated
fire-weather concerns.
..Halbert.. 04/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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