WW 682 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 132100Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 682
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern into Eastern Kansas
West-Central into Northwest Missouri
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and
intensify through the late afternoon and early evening. Supercells
and severe multicells will pose a risk for mainly large hail (1 to
2.5 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60 to 80 mph). A tornado
is also possible before storm mergers result in coalescing outflow
during the evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of Medicine Lodge KS to 40 miles northeast of Kansas City MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Smith
WW 0682 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0682 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 2368 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Areas affected...portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle to far
southwestern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 132102Z - 132230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will increase into the
evening hours as storms increase in number and intensity. A few
instances of 75+ mph gusts or 2+ inch hail are possible, especially
for storms farther north into the TX Panhandle. A WW issuance is
possible, especially farther north once details regarding locations
of greater storm coverage become apparent.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation is taking place across western
TX, both along and behind a dryline. Ahead of the dryline, upper 60s
F surface dewpoints and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates are
contributing to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, 35-50 kts of
effective bulk shear are coinciding with this buoyancy, with the
stronger shear noted over the TX Panhandle, in closer proximity to
the stronger 500 mb southwesterly flow. The current thinking is that
storms will increase in number and severity across western TX, with
several multicells and transient supercells likely. Severe wind and
hail will be the main threats. The best chance for 75+ mph gusts and
2+ inch diameter hail will exist over the eastern TX Panhandle,
given stronger 500 mb flow overspreading better buoyancy (e.g. 2500
J/kg MLCAPE). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may eventually be
needed, especially where the greater concentration of storms occur
(i.e. eastern TX Panhandle into northwestern TX).
..Squitieri/Smith.. 10/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 29980498 32970278 35060144 36090055 35900010 35049991
33790009 32440066 31080149 30250209 29700251 29300284
29240308 29230349 29160401 29980498
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 2367 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Areas affected...Central New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132008Z - 132215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is possible this
afternoon. A few storms may produce gusty/damaging winds. A watch
is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a differential
heating/baroclinic zone extending from near Oswego to near Albany
NY. Persistent clouds have limited temperatures north of this zone
to the lower 60s and a stable boundary-layer. To the south,
temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s, yielding SBCAPE values
around 1000 J/kg. Agitated cumulus are developing near the lake
shore and are expected track down the boundary and grow into showers
and thunderstorms during the next couple of hours. Winds aloft are
quite strong with 50+ knots at 500mb and considerable veering
profiles near the surface. While a few strong storms are expected,
warm temperatures around 700mb and the onset of diurnal cooling
should limit the overall risk of severe storms through the early
evening.
..Hart/Smith.. 10/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43807612 43067446 42547435 42267491 42757675 43047739
43367739 43617677 43807612
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 2366 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Areas affected...portions of far northwestern Oklahoma into southern
and eastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 132007Z - 132200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will increase as
storms continue to become more numerous through the afternoon. A
risk for 75+ mph gusts and 2+ inch diameter hail will develop, and a
tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
will likely be needed in the next hour or two to address the
impending severe threat.
DISCUSSION...A surface cold front continues to sag southward across
the central and southern Plains, with anafrontal convection noted
across portions of central KS. Though anafrontal, KDDC radar data
shows an increasingly eastward progression of the ongoing storms,
which may ultimately lead to storms outpacing the cold front. Once
this occurs, these storms will encounter a well-mixed boundary
layer, where surface observations show 90 F surface temperatures
amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE (per 19Z
mesoanalysis). Furthermore, around 50 kts of effective bulk (speed)
shear coincides with this buoyancy, suggesting multicells and
supercells are likely. 12 and 18Z regional observed soundings
depicted 7.5 C/km lapse rates, suggesting that any updrafts
preceding the cold front could become strong and well organized.
Severe wind and hail are the main concerns, with some gusts
potentially exceeding 75 mph, along with 2+ inch diameter hail.
Furthermore, any updrafts that can sustain supercellular
characteristics ahead of the surface cold front, and become dominant
(e.g. relatively unperturbed inflow) may produce a tornado, though
confidence in this scenario is low. Given the expected coverage of
severe storms ahead of the cold front in the next few hours, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 10/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37789896 38479806 38979697 39239583 39289522 39199482
38699491 38059547 37419681 36929771 36629849 36669903
36869916 37309915 37789896
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, severe gusts,
and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and
southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into
tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest
Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.
...20z Update...
A minor expansion was made to the Level 1/Marginal Risk area across
portions of far northeast Oklahoma, far southeast Kansas, and
southwest Missouri. The latest guidance indicates potential for a
few damaging wind gusts to occur if storms can remain organized late
into the overnight and propagate into this region. The low-level jet
is forecast to develop this evening across much of Oklahoma and
remain present through the overnight, offering support to sustain
convection.
Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track.
See the discussion below for more details.
..Karstens/Guyer.. 10/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026/
...Southern High Plains into KS and the mid MS Valley...
Regional 12 UTC raob data over the southern Great Plains showed a
very moist boundary layer (15-17 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing
ratios at Norman and Lamont, OK and Midland and Fort Worth, TX)
streaming northward. Late morning surface mesoanalysis places a
front extending southwestward from a surface low over northern Lower
MI through the mid MS/lower MO Valleys and into southeast CO. The
frontal zone is forecast to gradually shift south, primarily after
dark.
Ample heating via clear skies through mid afternoon will contribute
to moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) developing along and
south of the aforementioned front, westward to a triple point, and
southward into west TX east of a dryline. The erosion of convective
inhibition will likely lead to initial widely scattered storm
development over central KS per recent CAM data by mid-late
afternoon. Strong mid to high-level flow will support supercells
early in the convective life cycle with some of the stronger
thunderstorms. Storm coverage is forecast to increase through the
early evening from northwest OK and KS into the lower MO Valley.
Will maintain previous categorical risk with minimal change.
However, have enlarged the level-1 wind intensity and introduced a
level-1 hail intensity to account for organized storm modes and a
risk for hail 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter from the eastern TX
Panhandle into central KS. The overall tornado risk is uncertain
and will be limited to a certain extent by modest low-level shear
despite the supercell mode and a very moist boundary layer. A few
small clusters will likely evolve during the evening with a mix of
supercellular and multicells capable of severe gusts 60-80 mph. The
severe threat should become more isolated with time given increasing
nocturnal stabilization and widespread storm interactions.
...Parts of western/central NY...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will continue to move
quickly eastward through eastern Ontario through the Northeast
today. An attendant surface low will eastward just ahead of the
parent shortwave. Increasing low-level moisture and afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s will promote modest buoyancy, although
clouds/precipitation and relatively warm low to mid-level
temperatures result in some uncertainty regarding airmass
destabilization.
Increasing deep-layer westerly flow (particularly around 850 mb)
amid low-level southwesterlies will result in notably curved
low-level hodographs. As a result, any sustained surface-based
storms could organize, supporting a threat for localized wind damage
and possibly a tornado. Modest buoyancy is expected to
limit the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe potential.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA...TO THE WESTERN OZARK PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts, isolated
hail and a tornado or two are possible across portions of the
southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the
upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.
...Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
An upper low, initially over the Four Corners, is forecast move
eastward over the High Plains while southwesterly flow aloft
increases. A series of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will
move along a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS
Valleys, and into portions of the southern Plains. Western portions
of the front, modified by convection, may eventually stall and
perhaps retreat north Wed night in response to falling pressures
with a deepening lee low over eastern CO and the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, in one or more clusters, are
likely to be ongoing from the mid MS valley into southern/eastern KS
and central OK at 12z Wed. The cold front will likely be reinforced
by the convection with the morning outflow potentially causing it to
sag slowly across central OK and the western Ozarks Plateau through
the day. To the south of the boundary, the air mass should remain
very moist (70s F dewpoints), with modest heating contributing to
weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Large-scale ascent will
gradually increase as the upper low approaches, aiding in
thunderstorm redevelopment along the dryline across the TX
Panhandle/western OK, and within the broader warm sector by early
afternoon. Increasing deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be supportive
of a mix of organized supercells and lines/clusters. Damaging winds
are the most likely threat given modest low/mid-level lapse rates
and a mixed convective mode. However, isolated hail and perhaps a
tornado, are also possible with any more persistent supercells.
As the main upper low moves eastward into the evening/overnight, the
stalled surface front may gradually return northward as a warm front
across OK and KS. The air mass will remain very moist, aided by
further moisture advection associated with a developing 30-40 kt
low-level jet. As low-level warm air advection increases near the
boundary, storm redevelopment is possible through the
evening/overnight. Expanding low-level hodographs (ESRH 150-200
m2/s2) and the very moist PBL could support a tornado or two with
any supercells or linear clusters able to develop near the surface
low and warm front into early Thursday.
...OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic...
Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid
60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate
instability with MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg by mid-late afternoon ahead
of the cold front. Thunderstorms ongoing over the mid MS valley, and
additional development from the aforementioned vorticity maxima, are
expected to increase in areal coverage along the front through the
afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with
strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to
35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated damaging
wind gusts into evening.
..Lyons.. 10/13/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the mid-
Mississippi Valley and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening.
...Mid MS Valley/Midwest...
The upper low ejecting over the central Plains is forecast to weaken
to a positive-tilt open wave as it continues eastward and merges
with a northern stream trough from southern Canada late Thursday.
The lee low over KS will continue eastward and strengthen as a
diffuse warm front lifts northward across the Mid MS and lower OH
Valleys. A cold front will trail the low, sweeping south and east
from the MO valley into the southern Plains.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early
Thursday ahead of the low within a zone of low-level warm air
advection from the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley. A narrow
plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be advected
northeastward ahead of this activity across eastern IA/MO into
western IL. Modest clearing/heating of the air mass should support
weak destabilization with MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. This will allow
for intensification of the storms/new development through the
afternoon. Increasing ascent/vertical shear (EBWD 45-60 kt) will
support the potential for one or more organized clusters of storms
capable of damaging wind gusts through Thursday evening.
Farther southwest across OK/TX, a broken band of showers and storms
may still be ongoing ahead of the surging cold front Thursday
morning. Low-level flow should quickly veer as the front accelerates
favoring undercutting. Poor lapse rates, multiple rounds of prior
precipitation and rapidly decreasing surface moisture suggest only
weak buoyancy will be present. This should limit severe potential,
though a stray severe gust cannot be completely ruled out.
..Lyons.. 10/13/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Southern California...
An offshore wind event will begin to impact portions of southern CA
D2/Wednesday as a mid-level low pushes into the Four Corners region
and upper-level ridging evolves across the northwestern U.S. East to
northeast winds of 10-15 mph and commensurate downslope drying will
develop late D1/Tuesday into D2/Wednesday early afternoon. Localized
elevated fire weather conditions including wind speeds of 15-20 mph
coupled with RH of 15-20% in favored terrain gaps are expected in
western L.A. county and Ventura county, although recent light
rainfall and cooler temperatures have temporarily mitigated fuels.
..Williams.. 10/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over the Four Corners region will send an eastward
progressing cold front into eastern AZ/western NM on Day
2/Wednesday. High elevation snow is likely in southwestern to
central CO with precipitation chances spreading into the central
Plains as the trough lifts over northern CO. Farther west, an
offshore gradient will begin to develop on Day 2/Wednesday
afternoon, increasing east/northeast sustained winds to 15-25 mph in
terrain-favored areas of western L.A. county into Santa Barbara
county; thus, locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible
where dry fuels exist. The pressure gradient will strengthen late in
the Day 2/Wednesday period (early Thursday morning) leading into an
offshore wind event late this week (see the Day 3-8 Fire Weather
Outlook for details).
Meanwhile, high pressure will transition over the Southeast,
transporting rich Gulf moisture into the southern Plains and Ozarks.
As a result, anomalously high PWATs ranging from 1.8-2.2" and
afternoon large scale ascent are expected to promote areas of heavy
rainfall along a sagging cold front. This system is expected to
provide relief to drying fuels across the region, especially to
areas categorized by extreme to exceptional drought.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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