Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few instances of severe hail are likely across central Oklahoma
into the evening hours. An instance or two of hail or damaging gusts
may still occur over southern parts of the Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.

...20Z Update...
The primary change made to this outlook was to add a Slight risk to
portions of OK, while also expanding the Marginal risk to the south
and west across southern portions of the state. Confidence is
increasing for the initiation of a few supercell thunderstorms
across central OK this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary.
Current OK Mesonet surface observations depict a tongue of 59-60 F
surface dewpoints, which are advecting northward across the southern
portions of the state, toward the OKC metropolitan area. At least
some mid-level clouds persist over and around the metro, suggesting
that low-level moisture may not appreciably mix out through the
remainder of the afternoon. As such, the current moisture profile,
beneath 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield thin
surface-based buoyancy profiles, with 1000/500 ML/SBCAPE by
afternoon peak heating. Current INX/TLX VAD profiles depict
hodographs with modest 0-3 km curvature, and RAP forecast soundings
suggest that elongated mid-level hodographs should persist into the
evening hours, resulting in appreciable deep-layer shear for
supercell structures. While buoyancy will be relatively meager
overall, a few hail reports at least in the 1-2 inch diameter range
appears plausible this afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with an instance
or two of hail/strong wind gusts possible with thunderstorms
developing off of sea-breeze boundaries over far southern FL over
the next few hours.

..Squitieri.. 03/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/

...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening.  Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks.  A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK.  Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period. 

...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening. 
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL.  Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon.  Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb.  A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

...Synopsis...
An approaching mid-level trough and surface low evolution across the
Southern Plains should enhance the fire weather threat across
eastern NM and far west TX on D3/Tuesday. A progressive wave pattern
should remain intact through midweek, with extended model guidance
bringing in another mid-level trough into the Southwest by
D5/Thursday. Subsequent lee surface troughing in the Central Plains
on D5/Thursday will heighten fire weather concerns, promoting dry,
downslope flow across the Southern High Plains. Farther east,
prominent south-southwesterly flow should keep deeper boundary layer
moisture in place across the Southeast and Florida, limiting RH
reductions and leaving a mitigated fire weather environment in place
through the weekend.

...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Southwesterly flow aloft accelerates over the Southern Plains as a
mid-level jet ahead of the parent trough over the Southwest enters
to the region. Lee surface cyclone development across eastern CO
should support enhanced southwest winds across much of eastern NM,
West TX and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. A dry and well mixed 
boundary west of the deeper Gulf moisture plume should support
critically low RH by the afternoon. Receptive fuels combined with
dry and breezy conditions support maintenance of at least 40%
critical probabilities for this region.

...Day 5/Thursday - Southern and Central Plains...
A similar synoptic setup as D3/Tuesday is expected to evolve by
D5/Thursday across the Southern Plains. Another, but more amplified
mid-level wave reaches the Southwest by Tuesday as surface
cyclogenesis consolidates in the Central Plains. An expansive swath
of stronger southwest winds and low relative humidity will align
with abundant dry fuels to bring an enhanced fire weather threat to
portions of the central/southern Plains. Sporadic showers associated
with a southward progressing cold front on D4/Wednesday are expected
across the OK/TX Panhandles, southeast CO and western KS, but
widespread rainfall is not likely, keeping a dry fuelscape largely
intact into Thursday. A 40% critical probability was added to
portions of the southern/central Plains owing to higher confidence
in the model guidance consensus.

...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains...
Enhanced downslope flow from the southwest could linger into
D6/Friday under an exiting mid-level jet max across the Southern
Plains. Likely cooler temperatures along with uncertainties in
timing of the next cold front limits the overall fire weather threat
predictability for D6/Friday, with critical probabilities withheld
at this time.

..Williams.. 03/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...