Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Surface high pressure will remain over much of the central CONUS
today, as a cold front clears south FL and the Keys. Dry and/or
stable conditions will prevail for a large majority of the CONUS,
with minimal thunderstorm potential. One possible exception may be
across parts of the central Rockies as a shortwave trough moves over
this region through the afternoon. Still, with limited moisture
present, overall thunderstorm potential should remain less than 10
percent across this region.

..Gleason/Dean.. 02/20/2025

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the middle and upper Texas
coastal vicinity Saturday evening into early Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will shift east from AZ into the southern
Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure and a cool airmass will
persist over the southern Plains and Gulf coast. However, increasing
southwesterly midlevel flow and midlevel moistening is expected as
the shortwave trough ejects eastward. Warm advection atop the cool
boundary layer and steepening midlevel lapse rates will result in
increasing precipitation chances from late afternoon into the
overnight hours across portions of the middle and upper TX coastal
vicinity. Sufficient elevated instability (generally less than 400
J/kg MUCAPE) will exist to support isolated thunderstorms. Severe
thunderstorm potential is not expected.

..Leitman.. 02/20/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over parts of the
western to central Gulf coast vicinity on Day 4/Sun in association
with a weakening upper shortwave trough moving across the region.

After a lull in precipitation potential around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue,
thunderstorm potential may increase late in the forecast period. An
upper ridge over the western U.S. will shift east across the Plains
on Day 7/Wed before a deepening trough ejects across the Rockies to
the MS Valley on Day 8/Thu. During this time, lee low development
over the southern Plains will result in strengthening southerly
low-level flow over the western Gulf. Increasing moisture return
ahead of the eastward developing low and attendant cold front will
likely result in thunderstorm development from the ArkLaTex to the
Mid-South vicinity on Day 8/Thu. While some severe potential could
become favorable in this pattern, uncertainty regarding northward
extent of moisture return, and timing of key features at this longer
time range, precludes severe probabilities at this time.