Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...

A progressive and amplifying polar branch of westerlies is forecast
over the northern CONUS Tuesday and Tuesday night. Within that air
stream, a short-wave trough will move through the Northeast, while
an upstream system intensifies over the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude system over TX is expected to
de-amplify while advancing into the lower MS Valley. At the surface,
a lee cyclone and attending trough initially over the High Plains
will shift east through the northern and central Plains into the
Midwest, in tandem with the previously mentioned upper-air system.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of that frontal system will support
the poleward advance of a partially modified continental-polar air
mass from the southern Plains into the Ozarks.

Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along the middle TX Coast
Tuesday morning, and from the middle TX Coast into southern LA
Tuesday night, within a zone of low-level warm advection and weak
instability preceding the midlevel wave. Along the Pacific Northwest
Coast, moist onshore flow coupled with a slight steepening of
midlevel lapse rates will yield weak instability and the potential
for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Over
south FL, slight cooling aloft will combine with a moist PBL to
yield MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg by afternoon when isolated
thunderstorms appear possible.
  
Elsewhere, isolated lightning strikes appear possible over northern
or central TX, northern New England, and perhaps the eastern Dakotas
Tuesday afternoon into evening. Lightning duration and coverage in
those areas appear too limited to warrant general thunderstorm/10%
probability contours.

..Mead.. 11/10/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
Wednesday across parts of the lower Ohio and western Tennessee
Valleys.

...Lower Ohio and Western Tennessee Valleys...
A mid-level shortwave trough will dig southeastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, moisture
advection will take place with surface dewpoints reaching the mid
50s F over parts of the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys by
afternoon. Surface heating will result in weak destabilization along
and near a moist axis. Near this axis, large-scale ascent associated
with the trough will aid convective development in the late
afternoon and early evening. Scattered storms appear likely to
develop near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers
and spread eastward across southern Indiana, western Kentucky and
northern Tennessee during the early evening. RRFS forecast soundings
across western Kentucky at 00Z have MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with 0-6 km
shear around 50 knots. This may be sufficient for a marginal severe
threat with a few severe wind gusts possible. However, lapse rates
are forecast to be poor which will be a limiting factor, helping to
keep any severe threat localized.

..Broyles.. 11/10/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Thursday and
Thursday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Thursday,
as a cold front advances eastward through the Atlantic coastal
states. During the day, thunderstorms will be possible along and
ahead of the front from the Mid-Atlantic southward into far eastern
North Carolina. Instability is expected to be too weak for a severe
threat. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is
forecast Thursday and Thursday night.

..Broyles.. 11/10/2026