Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday.

... Northern Plains ...
Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and a developing
area of low pressure over the High Plains will maintain southerly
flow and an adequately moist airmass over NE and the Dakotas. 
Ongoing scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue to move
northeast, followed by thickening mid/high-level clouds, which will
likely limit destabilization.  However, some gradual warming through
mid afternoon will favor 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing from
western NE northward into ND.  A surface trough will likely focus
some of the isolated to scattered thunderstorms that eventually
develop.  Overall modest forcing for ascent and some elongation of
forecast hodographs (mostly due to a 250-mb speed max) may yield a
couple of strong thunderstorms developing.  Uncertainty where the
strongest storms develop and their intensity magnitude lend
sufficient concern to preclude low-severe probabilities this outlook
update.  By later this evening, a re-invigoration of a southerly LLJ
may continue to support elevated storms into the overnight.  

... Southeast CA/southern NV/western AZ...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as an anomalously
moist airmass spreads north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough
forecast to move from the central Valleys to the lower CO River
Valley during the period.  Widespread clouds and weak midlevel lapse
rates should keep instability generally limited through early
afternoon before cloud cover mostly dissipates and a mid-level cold
pocket arrives by early evening.  A stronger storm or two is
possible over this region but the stronger-storm threat combined
with remaining uncertainty in where the more vigorous storms will
develop, appears too low to warrant unconditional probabilities.

..Smith/Bentley.. 09/28/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5...
On Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the
southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon from
central Texas north-northeastward into southwest Missouri.
Thunderstorm development is expected along and near parts of the
instability axis during the afternoon and evening. The area with the
greatest potential for severe storms appears to be across central
Texas, where current model forecast have moderate instability and
moderate deep-layer juxtaposed. However, the favored corridor is
forecast to be narrow, and there is some uncertainty concerning the
placement of the instability axis. Severe wind gusts and hail will
be possible with storms that form near the instability axis Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough on Friday,
from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley southwestward into the
Ark-La-Tex. Along this corridor, an isolated severe threat will be
possible with storms that develop near localized maximums of
instability. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively
weak, suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal.

...Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8...
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
from the northern Plains into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to advance southward from the Mid Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys to near the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms
will be possible each day ahead of the front, with the greatest
convective coverage in the Southeast. Deep-layer shear is expected
to remain relatively weak across the moist sector, which should
minimize the potential for severe storms.