Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Western OK...
Water-vapor imagery and radar mosaic this morning show a
convectively modified disturbance over eastern NM lifting to the
northeast towards the central High Plains.  Mid to high-level clouds
will be prevalent today over western OK downstream of an upper
trough and associated with high-level moisture emanating from
tropical origins over the east Pacific.  Model forecast soundings
indicate mid-level lapse rates will be modest (upwards of 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE).  It remains uncertain whether a stronger storm or two will
develop late this afternoon with an accompanying low-probability
threat for a severe gust.  

...Southern half of NM...
In wake of an early day MCS across southeast and eastern NM, some
heating will likely occur within a dry slot wrapping through the
base of a Four Corners upper trough.  Due in part to the convective
overturning of the MCS, there is some uncertainty regarding the
quality of boundary layer moisture and instability forecast later
this afternoon.  A couple of stronger cells could develop with some
risk for hail, but there is low confidence in a severe-caliber
threat accompanying these potential storms late this afternoon.

..Smith/Bentley.. 09/25/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller
impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states
through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before
another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next
weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the
development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day
6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return.
However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear
with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in
agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no
probabilities were introduced this outlook.