Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
The Marginal Risk across western/central Kansas was removed with
this outlook update. A cluster of thunderstorm activity continues to
shift south and east, but has largely remained below severe limits.
This activity is expected to further weaken over the next couple of
hours with the loss of daytime heating and gradually waning MLCAPE.

..Thornton.. 04/09/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough approaches the California coast on Day
3/Friday while another upper trough traverses the Great Lakes into
the Northeast and temporary zonal flow continues over the Great
Plains. On Day 4/Saturday, an upper-level shortwave will move across
the central U.S., sending the first lee-surface low northeastward
over the Great Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Monday. A secondary
lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 6/Monday, traversing
the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day 7/Tuesday. This scenario
is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across much of
the western and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire
weather threats. Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will
be possible, but are difficult to pin point due to the highly
dynamic pattern.

...Great Basin - Day 3/Friday...
The best chances for fire weather conditions under southerly flow
will occur on Day 3/Friday across portions of eastern UT into
western CO. Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph)
combined with 15-20% RH atop preconditioned, drying fuels from Day
2/Thursday is expected to generate Elevated fire weather conditions.
Precipitation arrival on Day 4/Saturday afternoon may provide relief
to any ongoing or new fire starts. 

...Middle Mississippi Valley - Day 5/Sunday...
Ongoing drying conditions through the rest of this week and
increasing potential for 10+ mph southerly winds on Day 5/Sunday may
promote locally elevated fire weather concerns across northeastern
AR, southeastern MO, and western TN. Portions of this region range
from D2-D4 drought, though higher chances for wetting rainfall does
arrive middle of next week. Given model uncertainty in how far
northeast the gulf moisture may advect combined with questionable
fuels, critical probabilities have been withheld for now.

...Southern/Central Plains - Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday...
Possible fire weather conditions return on Day 5/Sunday as a more
potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. On Day 6/Monday, a
secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Southwest. Considering the overall pattern, areas behind an emerging
dryline and along a downslope regime will need to be watched closely
for fire weather concerns. However, given model uncertainty in the
timing of the shortwave and coincident surface low development, and
the potential for widespread appreciable rainfall on Day 3/Friday -
Day 4/Saturday, critical probabilities have been withheld for now.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...