Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado
or two will be possible across the southern Plains Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur
from parts of western and central Kansas into far southern Nebraska.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level low and an associated 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet
will move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on
Wednesday. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward
into southwest Kansas. A dryline will become well-defined from the
low southward into west Texas during the afternoon. To the east of
the dryline, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will
contribute to a pocket of moderate instability over west-central
Texas and southwest Oklahoma, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in
the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Large-scale ascent associated with the
trough, will move into the southern High Plains supporting
thunderstorm development along the instability axis. Thunderstorms
will expand in coverage as a line develops and moves eastward across
the southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening.

The mid-level jet streak will result in a increase of deep-layer
shear across the southern Plains throughout the day. Forecast
soundings by 21Z over west-central Texas have 0-6 km shear in the 35
to 40 knot range, which will support supercell development.
Supercells will be most likely early in the event, when storms are
most likely to be discrete. Supercells will be capable of severe
wind gusts and hail. As cell coverage increases, a line is expected
to gradually organize. Wind damage and hail will be possible along
the leading edge of this line. In addition, low-level shear will
also increase during the early evening, which may be sufficient for
an isolated tornado threat with rotating elements within the line.
The wind-damage threat should continue into the mid evening, as the
line moves eastward across southwest Oklahoma and west-central
Texas.

...Western and Central Kansas...
An upper-level low will move across the southern Rockies on
Wednesday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the
central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen and move into
southwest Kansas by afternoon, as a warm front moves across central
and northern Kansas. Increasing low-level convergence associated
with the low will aid thunderstorm development in the late afternoon
along and near an axis of instability axis. Forecast soundings near
the instability axis in west-central Kansas suggest that MLCAPE
could peak near 1000 J/kg. This, combined with 0-6 km shear near 30
knots could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 09/29/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
Thursday across parts of the southern Plains.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the south-central
U.S. on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the
southern Plains. Surface heating and increasing low-level
convergence will result in scattered thunderstorm development near
the front. Thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage during
the afternoon, moving eastward across a zone from southwest, central
and northeast Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F may result in moderate
destabilization across parts of the moist airmass. Storms that
develop within these pockets of stronger instability could be
associated with an isolated wind-damage threat, mainly as low-level
lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon. However, deep-layer
shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, which will marginalize
any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 09/29/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough
over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast
to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to
move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to
near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is
expected to be too weak for a severe threat.

Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly
over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be
in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be
along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and
instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The
severe threat is expected to be minimal.