Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.

...20Z Update...
Thunder probabilities were removed along the NC Coast, as the
low-level confluence zone and associated axis of instability has
shifted offshore. Thunder probabilities were also trimmed over the
MS Valley region, with the remaining probabilities focused where
warm-air advection at the nose of a developing low-level jet will be
strongest. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may form along
sea-breeze boundaries over the southern FL peninsula, and a few
lightning flashes remain possible through the remainder of the
period over the Intermountain West with the eastward progression of
an upper trough.

..Squitieri.. 03/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains
through the period.  Large-scale ascent associated with this upper
disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the
north-central High Plains.  Scant instability will preclude a severe
risk with this activity.  

Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as
increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the
development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and
vicinity.  Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional
lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL.
Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should
preclude a meaningful severe threat today.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO
WESTERN AR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur from
mid-afternoon to evening Wednesday, centered on parts of north Texas
to western Arkansas. Large hail should be the primary hazard.

...Synopsis...
A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will gradually move from the
central Great Plains to the Mid/Lower MO Valley, while a much more
amplified trough digs across the West. Surface cyclone reflection
will be nebulous in association with the lead wave, along a front
that should be quasi-stationary on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The
trailing portion of this front will advance north as a warm front in
west TX, downstream of the amplified wave in the West.

...Central TX to western AR...
Initially steep mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with further
boundary-layer moistening in the warm sector ahead of the front
should yield a broad plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg by
mid-afternoon across much of central/eastern TX into eastern OK.
Weak mid-level height falls trailing from the NE/KS shortwave trough
and adequate convergence along the quasi-stationary should support
increasing convective development towards late afternoon. Deep-layer
shear with southern extent in TX will be weak owing to the
compactness of the jetlet attendant to the aforementioned trough.
Effective bulk shear should commonly hold around 15-25 kts. Shear
values will increase north of the Red River, but remain modest
relative to early spring climo. Transient supercell structures that
evolve into mainly multicell clusters are the anticipated modes. At
least isolated severe hail is anticipated, primarily in the
mid-afternoon to early evening, before organized cellular structures
diminish. The paucity of cyclogenesis/stronger deep-layer shear and
modest large-scale ascent may help marginalize the overall severe
threat.

...Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley...
Multiple rounds of convective potential are expected through the
period. Elevated storms should be ongoing on Wednesday morning and
will help define the northern extent of any surface-based
destabilization into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. The degree of
warm-sector insolation is questionable with potential for repeated
convective regeneration ahead of the KS/NE shortwave trough.
Conditionally, moderately favorable deep-layer shear could support a
few supercells and/or linear clusters near the quasi-stationary
front. As such, a swath of low severe probabilities remains
warranted, mainly from mid-afternoon into the evening Wednesday.

..Grams.. 03/02/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

A small portion of the Elevated area stretching from southeast
Colorado into far western Oklahoma was removed. Latest
high-resolution forecast guidance indicates that the warm front will
not lift as far to the northeast today before sliding back to the
southwest as a cold front tomorrow. HREF/REFS probabilities of
forecast elevated winds/RH were less than 15% in the removed portion
of the Elevated area. High clouds will be a mitigating factor
tomorrow over the southern High Plains and Rockies. The
aforementioned cold front sliding southwest through the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, southeast Colorado, and northeast New
Mexico during the evening and subsequent precipitation across
portions of these areas will limit the duration of elevated to
locally critical conditions as well.

..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Basin and Four Corners
will eject over the Rockies and High Plains Tuesday, deepening a lee
low over eastern CO. A trailing dryline and stronger flow aloft will
bolster surface winds ahead of a southward moving cold front. With
increasing winds and dry conditions forecast behind the dryline,
elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are expected over
the southern and central High Plains D2/Tuesday afternoon.

...Southern and central High Plains...
As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate
height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a
trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern CO/NM into western TX/OK.
Lee surface cyclone development across eastern CO should support
enhanced southwest winds across much of eastern NM, West TX and
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. With surface winds expected to
reach 15-20 mph during the afternoon, downsloping and warm
temperatures will support low humidity below 20%. Overlapped with
areas of abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours
of elevated fire-weather conditions are probable Tuesday afternoon.

Some locally stronger winds (gusts 25-30 mph) could develop with RH
falling below 15% across the western TX Panhandle and eastern NM for
a few hours Tuesday mid afternoon. However, the duration of
sustained stronger winds beneath the weakening upper jet is expected
to be short as the surface low is forecast to move eastward. While
confidence is not overly high, a few hours of near critical
conditions are possible across eastern NM and the western TX
Panhandle, and an upgrade could be needed in future outlooks.
Fire-weather concerns should end overnight into early Wednesday as a
cold front moves south and low-level moisture increases.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...