WW 324 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 130610Z - 131000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
110 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Kansas
Northern Oklahoma
* Effective this Saturday morning from 110 AM until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms capable of wind damage and possibly
some hail will continue eastward for a time overnight, but should
eventually weaken as the storms progress east.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northeast of
Wichita KS to 25 miles east southeast of Enid OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Guyer
WW 0324 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0324 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0323 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 323
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW DHT TO
25 N BGD TO 60 ESE LBL TO 55 W AVK TO 25 SE DDC TO 45 NNE DDC.
..BROYLES..06/13/26
ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 323
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-033-047-097-151-130640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER COMANCHE EDWARDS
KIOWA PRATT
OKC003-043-045-059-093-129-151-153-130640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA DEWEY ELLIS
HARPER MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WOODS WOODWARD
TXC211-233-295-341-357-393-130640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 13 07:02:07 UTC 2026.SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS...MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
central and southern Plains into the Missouri Valley. Swaths of
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are all
possible.
...Synopsis...
Within the base of a broad large-scale trough and accompanying belt
of strong midlevel westerlies over the northern CONUS, an embedded
positive-tilt midlevel trough will overspread the northern Plains
through the period. In the low-levels, a weak surface low will move
slowly eastward across western/central KS during the day, before
being overtaken by a cold front into the evening hours.
...Central/Southern Plains into the Missouri Valley...
At the start of the period, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms
should be tracking eastward from NE into IA -- along the nose of a
gradually weakening nocturnal low-level jet. Steep midlevel lapse
rates and 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor large hail with
this activity. At the same time, a convectively augmented midlevel
impulse and lingering convection should be advancing eastward from
eastern KS into MO. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass should favor
a gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity along
related outflow into the afternoon hours. Moderate surface-based
buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear will support organized
clusters and potentially supercells structures, with a risk of
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Some guidance suggests that this
activity may grow upscale into one or more organized clusters while
moving east-southeastward into the evening hours.
Farther west, strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse
rates preceding the surface low will result in scattered
thunderstorm development from the central Plains into the lower MO
Valley. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture
will yield a strongly unstable air mass, which combined with around
40 kt of effective shear, will favor organized clusters and
semi-discrete supercells. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts
will be the main concerns with initially semi-discrete storms. With
time, additional thunderstorm development is expected along the
southeastward-moving cold front. As a result, several
intense/organized clusters will spread east-southeastward through a
corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy -- posing an increasing
risk of scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph). Despite the
expectation for upscale growth, embedded supercells will remain
possible, and given ample low-level shear and rich moisture, a
couple tornadoes will also be possible.
..Weinman.. 06/13/2026
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and
evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the
Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.
...Mid-Atlantic Region...
An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday
morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will
pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic.
Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead
impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the
afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to
around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced
flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during
the afternoon and evening.
Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee
of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay
vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture
return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints
should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing
cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across
eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted
with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat
less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within
lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the
Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the
afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also
will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage
probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in
subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased
to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ.
Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the
afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio
Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area,
deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will
pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the
evening.
...Southeast NM to the ArkLaTex...
A southward sagging surface front/composite outflow will extend west
to east across the region. A very moist and moderately unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Isolated convection
cold pose a risk for strong wind gusts. Across southeast
NM/southwest TX, a few storms could also produce hail. Weak
large-scale ascent and convection becoming undercut by the surface
boundary will limit overall severe potential.
..Leitman.. 06/13/2026
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to
the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Severe
thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time.
...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS east of the
Rockies on Monday. Modest deepening of the trough will result in a
belt of increasing northwesterly flow aloft from the northern High
Plains into the Mid-South. At the surface, a cold front will extend
from the southern Mid-Atlantic coast west/southwest across the Gulf
Coast states into central TX. This boundary will sag southward
through the period. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place
ahead of the boundary, but this region will remain displaced to the
south of strong mid/upper level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible, and some gusty winds could occur. However, organized
severe potential appears limited.
Further north across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, scant
boundary layer moisture is forecast. Weak destabilization is
possible via cooling aloft/steepening lapse rates. This could be
sufficient for isolated, higher-based thunderstorms. Gusty winds and
maybe small hail could occur, but overall severe potential appears
low.
..Leitman.. 06/13/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are forecast from the Four Corners region
into parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon as deep boundary
layer mixing with meager moisture content results in deep inverted-V
profiles across the area. Precipitable water content of 0.5-0.75 in
and tall LCLs exceeding 3.5 km will significantly reduce
precipitation efficiency, and with ERCs in the 90th-98th percentile
ranges, lightning ignitions will be a concern. Precipitable water
content increases to 1.0-1.25 in with southward extent, suggesting
the dividing line between wet/dry thunderstorms will be somewhere in
the central portions of Arizona and New Mexico. While the exact
details of where the dry-to-wet thunderstorm transition will set up
remains unclear, some lightning ignitions may be supported on the
periphery of more precipitation efficient downdrafts as well.
..Halbert.. 06/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are forecast from the Four Corners into
the Great Basin Sunday afternoon on the periphery of a mid-level
ridge centered over Mexico. Precipitable water content of 0.5-0.75
inches combined with deep inverted-V boundary layer profiles and
LCL-EL mean wind speeds exceeding 20 kts will result in low
downdraft precipitation efficiency. Combined with critically
receptive fuels and minimal prior-day precipitation, lightning-based
ignitions will pose a concern.
..Halbert.. 06/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
|
