Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT
BASIN...AND WESTERN OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible
this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains
to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from
western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho,
and also across parts of north-central California.

...Southern High Plains/South-central Plains into the Ozarks...
Recent surface analysis places a low over the western TX Panhandle,
with a cold front extending east-northeastward from this low across
northwest and north-central OK, and far southeast KS, before
becoming oriented more northeastward across southern and central MO.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this
boundary, as well modest southeastward-progressing outflow, across
far southern KS and northern OK. 

The cold front is forecast to trend more stationary throughout the
day as heights rise across the Plains and southerly low-level flow
persists across the southern Plains, with the outflow following this
trend as well. After 06Z, this stationary boundary will likely begin
shifting back northward into southern KS as warm front. Additional
thunderstorm development is possible amid low-level convergence near
both the stationary front and outflow as the airmass modestly
destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and/or
marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest storms, but
modest shear and buoyancy suggests most storms will be sub-severe.

Farther west, low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough
may contribute to late afternoon thunderstorm development across the
southern High Plain, particularly northeast NM. High cloud bases and
steep low-level lapse rates support the potential for strong
downbursts with any deep/more persistent updrafts. Some interaction
with the western extent of the frontal zone is possible as well,
which could briefly enhance updrafts, contributing to a continued
potential for damaging gusts as well as isolated hail.

...North-central CA/western OR into the northern Great Basin...
Upper low currently centered just off the northern/central CA coast
is forecast to become more progressive and negatively tilted
throughout the day today. Mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to
this wave will support scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon from central/northern CA and western OR into the northern
Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft (i.e.
-20 deg C at 500 mb) and strong diurnal heating will result in steep
low/mid-level lapse rates and at least modest buoyancy across much
of the region. 

A few areas (interior valley of central CA, Willamette Valley in OR,
and northern NV/southwest OR/southern ID) appear to have a slightly
higher potential for isolated strong to severe storms, largely a
result of more diurnal heating/higher afternoon temperatures.
Greater buoyancy combined with moderate/strong deep-layer shear will
support semi-organized cells/clusters, and perhaps even a few
supercells, may develop with an attendant threat of hail and
localized severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will be a bit weaker
across the interior valley of central CA but still sufficient for a
few organized storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local
terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and
possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/10/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on
Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge across the Plains will move east through the day
on Saturday with a strong mid-level trough approaching the
California coast. In between these 2 features, a mid-level shortwave
trough will move from the Great Basin to the Northern Plains. Lee
surface troughing will develop across the Front Range. The resulting
strengthening low-level southerly flow will bring moisture northward
across the Plains. 

...Southern High Plains...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop by early afternoon
across West Texas and into eastern New Mexico. Weak inhibition
should allow for widespread thunderstorm development by early to
mid-afternoon. Relatively weak shear, especially early on will
likely result in somewhat nebulous organization and storm mergers
which may preclude individual updraft longevity/strength. However,
storms are expected to congeal by late afternoon and may result in
some more organized wind threat, supported into the overnight
period, as the low-level jet strengthens. 

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Weak height falls are expected to overspread the central Plains
through the day on Saturday. As this occurs, isolated to potentially
scattered storms are expected along and near the diffuse dryline.
Shear will remain somewhat weak across this region and therefore,
some hail/wind threat is possible, but a greater threat is not
anticipated. Guidance shows a small jet-streak ejecting across
central Kansas during the day Saturday. This may provide a slightly
more favorable zone of shear across central Kansas and southeast
Nebraska Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show an
uncapped environment, but without an initiating boundary, storm
development remains uncertain. Any mesoscale lift associated with
this mid-level jet streak could result in an isolated supercell
during the afternoon/evening, but this scenario remains conditional.

...Iowa into southern Minnesota...
As the low-level jet strengthens Saturday night, isentropic ascent
will increase and thunderstorms will develop across the Upper
Midwest. Some 12Z CAM guidance has hinted at some additional
elevated thunderstorms across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota
in the wake of the primary zone of ascent. This is likely associated
with the same jet streak moving across Kansas during the day. If
storms develop within this zone, forecast soundings support some
large hail threat. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to
cover this threat. 

...Central California...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the California
coast Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings show relatively weak
instability ahead of this line (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE). However, 40
knots of flow in the lowest 1km may be sufficient to mix down some
of these stronger winds and result in some severe wind threat
Saturday afternoon/evening. 

...Great Basin Vicinity...
Given the well-mixed, steep lapse-rate environment a few of the
storms which develop across the Great Basin vicinity could have some
strong wind gusts. Relatively weak instability may keep these
stronger gusts somewhat sporadic. Therefore, a Marginal Risk will
not be introduced at this time.

..Bentley.. 04/10/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track as no changes were made to
the Elevated fire weather risk area over eastern UT into western CO.
For portions of the Ohio River Valley, current RH of 30-40 percent
is expected to be short-lived, as increasing cloud cover and surface
moisture ahead of an approaching cold front reduces broader fire
concerns. 

For parts of eastern NM into the Caprock and TX/OK Panhandles, a mix
of wet and dry thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening has the
potential for lightning ignitions as fuels remain receptive.
However, 10-15 kt storm motions, increasing PWATs of 0.7-1.0 in.,
and the expanding coverage of showers this evening precludes the
introduction of a dry thunderstorm risk area. Gusty and erratic
outflow winds are likely with any afternoon thunderstorm, locally
enhancing fire weather concerns for new ignitions and ongoing fires
from yesterday's lightning starts.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Nauslar.. 04/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward today from the eastern Great
Basin into the Great Plains as longwave upper troughing shifts
across the northern Great Lakes region and the Northeast. Meanwhile,
a mid-level shortwave trough will progress northeastward across
California and the western Great Basin while another upper trough
approaches the California coastline behind it. A slow moving cold
front will progress south-southeastward across the Northeast, Ohio
River Valley, and central Great Plains, with surface high pressure
positioned across the Southeast and Great Lakes regions.

...Portions of the Great Basin...
Surface low pressure across the northern Great Basin in conjunction
with high pressure across the Great Lakes/Southeast will promote a
tightened pressure gradient and resultant sustained southerly
surface winds of 15-25 mph across much of the eastern/southern Great
Basin today. Despite increasing mid/high cloud cover, minimum RH
values of 15-20% (locally down to 10%) are forecast during peak
mixing this afternoon. With preconditioned, drying fuels from
Thursday, this combination of winds/RH is expected to support
elevated fire weather concerns today across portions of eastern Utah
into northwestern Colorado. Locally critical conditions may be
possible should stronger surface winds overlap with locally lower RH
values, but these conditions are expected to remain brief should
they materialize. Deep boundary layer mixing and modestly strong
mid-level flow (25-35 kts within the 700-500 mb layer) will also
support the potential for periodic gusts up to 30-35 mph across the
region.

...Portions of the mid/upper Ohio River Valley...
Ahead of an approaching cold front, west-southwesterly sustained
winds of 10 mph (with occasional gusts of 15-20 mph) combined with
RH values dropping to 30-35% are expected to overlap a region of
drying and potentially receptive fuels from northeastern
Kentucky/southern Ohio into northeastern West Virginia and
southeastern Pennsylvania. With ERCs across this region approaching
the 97th percentile, this overlap of winds/RH may support a few
hours of locally elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. A
passing cold front will bring a shift to northerly winds, increasing
moisture, and decreasing winds speeds later this evening, which
should provide some relief to the fire environment. Coupled with low
confidence in widespread sustained winds exceeding 15 mph during the
afternoon, Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...