WW 255 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 302250Z - 310400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
550 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Oklahoma
Western North Texas and Panhandle
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 550 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms will continue to develop, at least on an
isolated/widely scattered basis, with large hail and locally
damaging winds as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of
Clinton OK to 50 miles west of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 252...WW 253...WW 254...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26020.
...Guyer
WW 254 TORNADO KS NE 302200Z - 310400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 254
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Kansas
Western Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms including supercells are expected
to develop across the region into this evening. This includes storms
capable of large hail, damaging winds and a tornado risk, which
should increase within a moist air mass as low-level winds
strengthen.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Mullen NE
to 40 miles southwest of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 252...WW 253...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 18025.
...Guyer
WW 253 SEVERE TSTM KS NE OK 302035Z - 310300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central Kansas
South Central Nebraska
Northern Oklahoma
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly developing on a dryline over
southwest Kansas. These storms will expand through the afternoon
and evening across the watch area, with the potential for damaging
winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two is also possible
in any discrete cells that can be sustained.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north northwest
of Kearney NE to 10 miles west southwest of Enid OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 252...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Hart
WW 252 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 302015Z - 310300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Colorado
Nebraska Panhandle
Southwest South Dakota
Eastern Wyoming
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify across the area
through the afternoon, with a few severe storms expected. Damaging
winds and hail are the main threat, although an isolated tornado is
possible if discrete supercells can form.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 90 miles north northwest
of Chadron NE to 30 miles south southwest of Akron CO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Hart
WW 0255 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 255
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOORE..05/30/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 255
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-039-055-057-065-075-129-141-149-310040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM CUSTER GREER
HARMON JACKSON KIOWA
ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA
TXC075-087-101-155-197-211-483-487-310040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
FOARD HARDEMAN HEMPHILL
WHEELER WILBARGER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0254 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 254
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/30/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 254
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC039-302340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR
NEC005-009-029-031-041-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091-101-111-
113-117-135-145-161-171-302340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE CHASE
CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL
DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN
GRANT HAYES HITCHCOCK
HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON PERKINS
RED WILLOW SHERIDAN THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N CSM TO
25 WNW AVK TO 20 SW DDC TO 30 SE LBF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909
..MOORE..05/30/26
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-027-029-033-041-047-051-053-057-065-077-079-083-089-
095-097-105-113-115-123-135-137-141-143-145-147-151-155-157-159-
163-165-167-169-173-183-185-191-195-201-310040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLAY
CLOUD COMANCHE DICKINSON
EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH
FORD GRAHAM HARPER
HARVEY HODGEMAN JEWELL
KINGMAN KIOWA LINCOLN
MCPHERSON MARION MITCHELL
NESS NORTON OSBORNE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PHILLIPS
PRATT RENO REPUBLIC
RICE ROOKS RUSH
RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK
SMITH STAFFORD SUMNER
TREGO WASHINGTON
WW 0252 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 252
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW LIC
TO 50 NW AKO TO 15 SW TOR TO 30 WNW TOR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911.
..MARSH..05/30/26
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-087-095-115-121-123-125-310040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-310040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
SDC033-047-093-102-103-310040-
SD
MD 0913 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 254... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0913
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0701 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Areas affected...parts of western Nebraska
Concerning...Tornado Watch 254...
Valid 310001Z - 310130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 254 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail
and damaging winds will continue this evening. The tornado potential
may increase slightly around sunset before waning much later this
evening. The severe threat continues.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop in arc from northeast
Colorado east into western Nebraska then southeast into central
Kansas this evening. This region is likely being glanced by
large-scale ascent associated with the lifting, negatively tilted
short-wave trough over central Colorado and eastern Wyoming.
Additionally, this area is likely experiencing large-scale ascent
associated with a 300-mb subtropical jet and subtle short-wave
trough lifting northeast across the central US.
MUCAPE values across the region are quite extreme, with a reservoir
of 4000 J/kg along and ahead of the northward moving arc of
convection. Deep-layer shear across the line remains on the weaker
side for organized convection, with only 25-35 knots objectively
analyzed. That said, shear vectors are mostly orthogonal to the
initiating boundary and the extreme instability should support a
continued threat for large hail and damaging winds.
With time this evening, the low-level jet is forecast to forecast to
increase around and after sunset. As this happens, strengthening,
strongly veering with height, low-level wind fields may support a
more favorable environment for a tornado or two.
The severe threat continues across the watch this evening.
..Marsh.. 05/31/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40020207 40980207 41000261 42950273 42990021 42120017
42109963 41759966 41779916 41069920 41010022 40730022
40689998 40459998 40300017 39620017 39590071 39990079
40020207
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 0912 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255... FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0912
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255...
Valid 302353Z - 310200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have struggled to maintain intensity within
a weakly forced, but otherwise favorable convective environment.
While storm coverage and intensity are uncertain due to recent
trends, additional thunderstorm development appears possible through
mid-evening based on GOES imagery.
DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells across the far eastern TX
Panhandle have struggled to maintain intensity over the past hour
with both cells largely dissipated as of 23:50 UTC. The lackluster
sustenance of these cells is likely owing to weak forcing for ascent
across the region as the primary upper-level trough axis shifts away
from the region to the north. However, there are hints in recent
GOES imagery that additional convection is possible in the coming
hours. Low-level water-vapor imagery reveals a subtle ribbon of
vorticity spreading east across the TX Panhandle towards the
dryline, which may bolster ascent to some degree over the next hour.
Some hints of this ascent are already noted as a few deeper
congestus clouds develop along the dryline to the west of the
weakening cells. Additionally, a cluster of elevated cumulus south
of the Lawton, OK area has seen steady, albeit slow, growth over the
past hour. Confidence is low that either of these regions will see
substantial convective intensification, but recent RRFS solutions
hint at isolated thunderstorms through roughly 04 UTC within an
otherwise favorable convective environment.
..Moore.. 05/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34150051 34450071 34690067 35050044 35180031 35340005
35419973 35379911 35259860 35059822 34719798 34449789
34109798 33959824 33899870 33859906 33839980 33890039
34150051
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 0911 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND EXTREME EASTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 0911
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Areas affected...parts of western Nebraska and South
Dakota...northeast Colorado...and extreme eastern Wyoming
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252...
Valid 302320Z - 310045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening across
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #252. Isolated large hail and strong winds
will remain possible across the watch.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop and grow upscale into
north-south linear clusters this afternoon/evening to the northeast
of a negatively tilted mid-level trough moving across north-central
Colorado into eastern Wyoming.
The overall environment remains favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms, with MUCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, with
deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots. However, deep-layer shear
is mostly parallel to the initiating boundaries, which will favor
seeding of downstream updrafts, acting as an overall check on
thunderstorm intensity. Thus, despite overall an environment that
would support a sustained hail and wind threat this evening, the
most likely scenario is for any severe hail or wind to occur on an
isolated basis with the strongest of updraft cores as the overall
complex moves east into the central/northern Plains.
The activity should weaken later this evening with the loss of
diurnal heating.
..Marsh.. 05/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...
LAT...LON 40130499 44210505 45970504 46210410 45950324 44340278
42980271 41080287 39730293 39180389 39500486 40130499
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 0910 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0910
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Areas affected...Portions of the Edwards Plateau of southern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302231Z - 310030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across the Big Bend/Edwards
Plateau region may be very isolated, but the downstream environment
may support intense convection through late evening. Watch issuance
is currently not expected given limited storm coverage.
DISCUSSION...Convection has been percolating along a dryline across
the Big Bend/Edwards Plateau over the past couple of hours. Although
deep initiation has struggled to remain sustained, lightning trends
within a couple of deeper convective cores east/southeast of Fort
Stockton, TX have increased over the past 20 minutes, hinting at a
higher potential for sustained convection. If mature thunderstorms
can be established, they will quickly migrate into an environment
very favorable for intense convection (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg with
elongated hodographs featuring 45 knots of effective bulk shear).
Within this environment, splitting supercells appear probable and
will pose a threat for large to very large hail as well as severe
gusts. Given weak synoptic-scale forcing for ascent, it remains to
be seen whether these more recent attempts at sustained convection
will succeed or whether storm coverage will be more than a storm or
two. Because of these concerns watch issuance is currently not
anticipated, but trends will be monitored.
..Moore/Guyer.. 05/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29680273 29710286 29870297 30150285 30870231 31910093
32010035 31999996 31779981 31469980 30929999 30520041
30120094 29910144 29790183 29790230 29750249 29680273
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening over
the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will
potentially be capable of severe gusts (some possibly exceeding 75
mph), large hail, and a couple of tornadoes.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with mainly
minor changes made to general thunderstorm and severe hazards
probabilities to account for observations and the latest guidance
consensus. There still appears to be a window of opportunity for
initially discrete storms, accompanied by a severe hail/isolated
tornado threat to grow upscale into one or more MCSs across southern
NE into KS this afternoon and early evening. Latest guidance and
observations continue to show 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per the
18Z DDC observed sounding) and forecast 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE via
deep-wide buoyancy profiles (per latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings)
centered over central KS. As such, swaths of severe winds (with some
gusts potentially well exceeding 75 mph) are expected before the
MCSs propagate into an increasingly stable airmass later this
evening.
..Squitieri.. 05/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/
...Central KS into OK...
A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across
the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level
jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds
in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a
zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of
central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for
severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being
the primary concern.
Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from
southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures
approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer,
promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that
favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward
through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will
remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be
possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity
should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable
environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.
...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle...
Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned
surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the
northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and
near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build
northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of
supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least
occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail will
be possible Monday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, with mainly
damaging wind potential from the mid and lower Mississippi Valley
into the Tennessee Valley.
...Central Plains...
An upper low will remain situated over the northwestern states on
Monday, with various disturbances rotating into WY with glancing
influence into CO. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to
develop over southeast Co with strongly backed/easterly low-level
winds north of the low across much of NE, KS and into eastern CO.
These easterly winds will maintain 50s F dewpoints into CO, where
strong heating and upslope flow should aid development near the
Front Range during the afternoon. Large hail will be likely with the
initial cells, with steep lapse rates aloft and 35+ kt deep-layer
shear aiding supercell development. With time, cells may
cluster/increase in coverage, with a severe MCS possible into KS
with damaging winds. Any such system also be supported by a 30-40 kt
low-level jet during the evening.
...Mid to Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A northwest flow regime aloft will exist across the MS and TN
Valleys on Monday as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. A
very moist air mass will already be in place, with potential for
early day thunderstorms as well. Timing for severe is a bit
uncertain due to possible ongoing activity Monday morning over
southern MO and vicinity. If this occurs, the primary severe threat
would likely evolve from that activity as the outflow proceeds
southeastward across the moist/unstable air mass. Otherwise, new
activity will be possible within the zone from the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valley southeastward across the TN and lower MS Valley with daytime
heating. MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg and steepening low-level lapse rates
will favor forward propagation and widespread strong to locally
severe wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 05/30/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
A semi-stagnant synoptic pattern is expected to continue through the
extended forecast period. An upper low will hover over the Northwest
through Day 4/Tuesday meanwhile a blocking ridge remains over the
Central U.S. and Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure and associated
dry conditions amid light winds will dominate over the Great Lakes
through at least Day 5/Wednesday, before a possible pattern change
on Day 6/Thursday. A North Atlantic trough will persist along the
Eastern Seaboard before developing into an upper low as it moves
offshore on Day 5/Wednesday. Much of the Plains and Southeast will
continue to see opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with
deeper boundary layer moisture in place, keeping broader fire
weather concerns low.
The Northwest upper low will lift into southwestern Canada mid-week,
promoting a warming and drying trend across much of the
Intermountain West and Southwest through the period. Diffuse surface
pressure gradients will keep winds on the light side with above
normal temperatures and dry conditions supporting drying and curing
of fuels. An intrusion of deeper atmospheric moisture into the
Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday will promote increasing chances for
thunderstorms and appreciable precipitation in eastern NM. However,
extended guidance depicts moisture will be less significant west of
the Divide, with forecast soundings portraying a prominent dry
sub-cloud layer and PWATs of 0.5-0.8", allowing some possibility of
isolated dry thunderstorms to evolve. 10% probabilities for Dry
Thunderstorms have been introduced across far eastern AZ into
western NM to account for this threat.
As the blocking pattern continues through the middle of next week,
surface high pressure should reinforce warm and dry conditions
across the Great Lakes region. The upper ridge will begin to flatten
on Day 5/Wednesday as an upper low traverses southern Canada,
pushing surface high pressure farther southeast. Very warm daytime
temperatures and RH declining to near critical values on Day
6/Thursday could encourage fire weather concerns to emerge where
favorable fuels exist. However, misaligned breezy winds/critical RH
preclude the introduction of probabilities at this time, though
trends will be monitored in future outlook cycles.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
|
