Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous
United States through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this
update. In central KS, a couple of strong storms capable of
producing strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible
along/immediately ahead of a cold front early tonight, given an
elongated hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear) and weak
buoyancy. However, the expected late timing of convective initiation
and dry air/subsidence aloft should tend to limit updraft strength
and the severe risk.

..Weinman.. 10/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale trough
over the West.  A lead shortwave disturbance over the Dakotas will
move east into the Upper Great Lakes by late tonight.  Strengthening
low-level warm-air advection immediately ahead of a surface low will
favor scattered thunderstorms developing this evening over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes and moving into northern MI overnight. 
Although cloud-bearing shear will be strong, limited elevated
buoyancy will likely limit updraft strength and a corresponding
small hail risk with the strongest storms.  

Moist and moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout the eastern periphery of the western CONUS troughing,
aiding in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. 
Weak buoyancy should temper overall storm strength, although a
strong gust or two is possible.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Broader fire weather concerns will remain subdued through D2/Tuesday
across CONUS with no highlighted areas. Please see previous forecast
discussion for additional details.

..Williams.. 10/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026/

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will progress slowly eastward across the
Intermountain West on D2/Tuesday, with strong southwesterly flow
aloft persisting from the southern Rockies into the central Great
Plains and Midwest. This will help maintain a lee surface low across
the central Plains, with a corridor of stronger southwesterly
surface winds of 15-25 mph forecast from eastern New Mexico into the
western TX/OK Panhandles, southeastern Colorado, and southwestern
Kansas. Downslope drying will also foster RH reductions to around
20% across this region, but poor fuel receptiveness (ERCs generally
below the 50th to 60th percentiles) will temper overall fire weather
concerns.

Farther east, upper-level ridging will remain in place across the
western Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi River Valley. Concurrently,
a surface frontal system will progress southward across the central
Plains and Midwest, bringing chances for precipitation. Coupled with
lingering chances for rainfall and higher elevation snowfall across
portions of the West, widespread fire weather concerns will continue
to be largely suppressed across much of the U.S.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough over the Four Corners region on Day 3/Wednesday
will eject into the Plains and merge with a broader and intensifying
trough over the Northeast by Day 5/Friday. A cutoff low is likely to
evolve over Baja California while upper ridging builds back over the
northwestern U.S. This upper level pattern, in addition to surface
high pressure emerging over the Intermountain West and central U.S.,
will support a period of dry, offshore flow across portions of
southern CA Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday. A cold front will push into
the Southeast by Day 5/Friday with dry, post-frontal flow bringing
fire weather concerns to portions of the lower MS River Valley on
Day 5/Friday.

...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday - Southern California...
A offshore wind event is expected to commence as early as Day
3/Wednesday across portions of southern CA as expansive surface high
pressure settles into the Intermountain West and central U.S.
Upper-level support for appreciable offshore flow will also be
present as a cutoff mid-level low across Baja CA and a building
ridge to the north evolve through late this week. East-northeast
winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely from western L.A.
county westward into Santa Barbara county with fire weather impacts
beginning Day 4/Thursday and peaking Day 5/Friday. Residual moisture
from recent rainfall should subdue fire weather concerns farther
east. These dry and breezy conditions combined with drying fuels as
temperatures climb through the week prompted inclusion of 40%
critical probabilities for parts of southern CA for both Thursday
and Friday.

...Day 5/Friday - Lower Mississippi River Valley...
An expansive cold front will push through the Southern Plains and
Southeast by the end of the week, ushering in a dry, post-frontal
air mass and modest northerly winds into the region. Well above
normal temperatures under persistent ridging through midweek will
continue to promote receptive fuels across the lower MS River Valley
where forecast ERC values on Day 5/Friday near the 90th percentile.
The preceding heat and its fuel preconditioning impact followed by a
dry cold front will support elevated fire weather conditions for the
lower MS River Valley region on Day 5/Friday where 40% critical
probabilities have been introduced.

..Williams.. 10/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...