Mesoscale Discussion 0024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Areas affected...eastern OH and western PA/NY

Concerning...Snow Squall 

Valid 171600Z - 172000Z

SUMMARY...Snow squalls are likely to accompany a cold front pushing
east across eastern Ohio into western portions of Pennsylvania and
New York through this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection has recently increased along a
cold front progressing through north-central/northeast into central
Ohio. Both KLPR and KOSU sampled a visibility reduction to
quarter-mile with gusts of 30 and 31 kts respectively, and KMFD
recently dropped to quarter mile as well. The more organized portion
of the snow squalls will probably be confined closer to Lake Erie,
where stronger low-level convergence is anticipated. Steep low-level
lapse rates along/ahead of the front are the primary driver of a
favorable thermodynamic environment with SPC Mesoscale Analysis
estimates of a 2-4 Snow Squall Parameter. This is expected to shift
east with the front, favoring snow squall production throughout the
afternoon.

..Grams.. 01/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   41518163 42288020 42907905 43077855 42927810 42427808
            41677831 41237869 40577952 40168084 39988148 39978212
            40218248 41518163 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight
as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded
shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks
and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue
southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the
Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with
some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse
rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.

..Guyer.. 01/17/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorms are not expected for much of the country on Sunday
with the exception of the southern FL coast. A cold continental air
mass is noted in mid-morning surface observations surging southward
across the Plains in tandem with an upper wave/jet. These features
will shift southeastward into the northeastern Gulf by 12z Sunday,
and will likely support an uptick in anafrontal stratiform
precipitation across the Southeast states through the day. However,
negligible buoyancy is expected owing to poor lapse rates and modest
low-level moisture, which should preclude thunderstorm development.
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along and just off the
southern FL Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon within a weak warm
advection regime ahead of the primary cold front. Offshore storm
motions should further limit the duration of convection over land.

..Moore.. 01/17/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the country for
Monday. An extensive cold/dry continental air mass and building
surface high pressure over the central CONUS will promote dry
conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Broad-scale upper
ridging will persist along the West Coast, maintaining low chances
for precipitation. A lightning flash or two appears plausible on the
eastern shores of the lower Great Lakes where cold 850-700 mb
temperatures may support mixed-phase hydrometeors within deep
lake-effect snow bands. However, this potential seems too spatially
limited and conditional to warrant broader 10% thunder probabilities
at this time.

..Moore.. 01/17/2026