Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado will exist through tonight along much of the California
Coast and portions of the Central Valley.

... 01Z Update ...

Multiple bands of convection look likely this evening into the early
morning hours as a deepening surface low approaches the California
coast. The strongest convective elements within this first band,
currently approaching the San Francisco Bay area, will be capable of
producing gusty winds as it moves inland.

Wind fields will strengthen overnight in response to the approaching
low. This will maintain sufficient low-level theta-e advection to
support modest low-level instability through Christmas morning.
Numerical guidance this evening indicates a more intense band of
convection will approach the central and northern California coast
in the 08-12Z (12-4AM PT) window, quickly moving into northern
portions of the Central Valley. Given the modest instability and
strong wind fields, isolated strong wind gusts and a brief tornado
will be possible overnight, especially along the coast. 

Elsewhere along the California coast, low-level moist advection will
persist through the night supporting localized convective
development. For the same reasons listed above, an isolated strong
wind gust or brief tornado would be possible with these convective
elements. 

... Central Valley ...

Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across portions of the
Central Valley near Sacramento. Surface-based instability around 500
J/kg within a strongly sheared environment will support an isolated
wind threat. Should convective elements become more cellular, the
low-level wind fields would support a brief tornado, especially in
areas where surface-based instability can be realized. This activity
will lift generally northward across the Central Valley through this
evening.

..Marsh.. 12/25/2025

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue through the weekend across the
southern High Plains as the mid-level trough shifts into the
central/northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday. Increasing mid-level
westerly flow along with lee troughing across the Plains will
support a dry downslope regime for the TX Panhandle and vicinity on
Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, followed by a strong cold front moving
through the central and eastern U.S. early next week. Upper-level
ridging will likely return to the West while deep layer northwest
flow under a troughing regime sets up across the eastern CONUS for
the middle of next week.

...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday - Southern/Central High Plains...
Dry conditions and anomalously warm temperatures under a broad
upper-level ridge combined with downslope enhanced westerly winds, a
dry boundary layer and dry fuels should support an ongoing fire
weather threat to far eastern NM, TX Panhandle and portions of
western OK Friday and Saturday. As such, 40% critical probabilities
were maintained for both Friday and Saturday. Increasing mid-level
flow over central Rockies could present a more localized downslope
wind event along the CO Front Range and leeward of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains Friday and Saturday.

...Day 5-8/Sunday-Wednesday...
Primary fire weather focus will shift to a strong cold front moving
into the central and Southern Plains on Day 5/Sunday, reaching the
Gulf Coast by Day 6/Monday. However, ample cloud cover and some
precipitation along and behind the front could limit fire weather
impacts early next week particularly east of the I-35 corridor in
the Southern Plains. In addition, some uncertainty in frontal timing
precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Dry,
post-frontal flow could also bring a brief fire weather concern to
portions of the Southeast Monday and even FL Tuesday where minimal
rainfall is expected.

..Williams.. 12/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...