Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and
large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern
High Plains this afternoon and evening.  More isolated occurrences
of damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep
South Texas and parts of the Columbia Basin into the northern
Intermountain region.

...20z Update Carolinas...
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing south of the
quasi-stationary front across central NC. The environment south of
the boundary into SC is warm and moderately unstable. However,
vertical shear decreases substantially farther south from the
boundary. This has resulted in little storm organization thus far.
While sporadic damaging gusts remain possible, the tendency for
convection to focus along the boundary where there is less buoyancy
suggests severe potential is limited. 5% wind probabilities have
been removed with this update.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Scattered convection developing off the higher terrain and more
isolated development along the stalled surface front should
gradually coalesce across the High Plains late this afternoon into
this evening. With 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear near the front,
episodic supercell structures with a risk for large hail or damaging
gusts will be possible. Eventually, upscale growth into one or more
small clusters may occur during the evening as a southerly LLJ
intensifies. Scattered severe gusts will be possible with this
activity into the overnight hours.

...OR and ID...
Initial high-based thunderstorms are developing east of the upper
low over the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft,
and seasonably warm/moist conditions, associated with a plume of
monsoonal moisture, will support a risk for locally damaging wind
gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon and evening. See
MCD#1716 for additional information.

..Lyons.. 07/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026/

...Central/southern High Plains including western Kansas...
Surface analysis late this morning places a front draped from far
southwest KS extending into eastern CO.  The front and a dryline
farther south will focus thunderstorm development later this
afternoon as strong heating results in appreciable boundary layer
destabilization.  Water-vapor imagery shows an impulse over central
CO moving slowly east to the north of a mid-level anticyclone
centered over northwest TX.  This upper disturbance and associated
forcing for ascent coupled with weakening convective inhibition will
lead to scattered storms developing by late afternoon.  Models
feature a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear over western KS near the front, which will be
sufficient for at least episodic supercell structures with a risk
for large hail.  Some upscale growth into a small cluster may occur
during the evening as a southerly LLJ intensifies.  Scattered severe
gusts will be possible with this activity.  Farther west and south
along the dryline, a deeply mixed boundary layer and weaker shear
will favor an isolated risk for severe gusts with the stronger
downdrafts.

...Middle Texas Coast to Deep South Texas...
As Bertha continues westward over the northwest Gulf, a belt of
enhanced mid-level flow will precede Bertha and spread atop a hot
and moist boundary layer inland, with moderate instability
developing by afternoon along the middle Texas coast.  Ample
deep-layer shear within the southwest quadrant of the parent system
may support some cold pool organization.  Steepened low-level lapse
rates and high PW may yield a localized risk for severe gusts with
scattered storms that develop near the coast and move inland over
the coastal plain through the evening.

...Columbia Basin/northern Intermountain West...
Weak height falls are expected while mid/upper-level winds
strengthen regionally ahead of an upper low off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest.  Daytime heating along favored terrain, in
conjunction with the glancing influence of the passing disturbance,
will aid in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon within a moderately unstable and steep lapse rate
environment.  The strengthening upper-level winds will enhance
vertical shear, supporting the potential for some storm organization
with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail.

...Eastern Carolinas...
Midday visible-satellite imagery shows scattered
showers/thunderstorms along a west-east oriented frontal zone over
southern NC.  Cloud breaks south of convective cloud debris will
promote additional heating near the coast and moderate
destabilization by mid afternoon.  A few of the stronger storms that
develop this afternoon into the early evening will probably pose a
localized risk for damaging gusts.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into
northern Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move across the Canadian Prairies D2/Friday,
with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the High
Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a low will move
across central Manitoba with a trailing cold front extending into
the northern Plains.

...Dakotas/Northern Minnesota...
Westerly flow aloft from the trough across Canada will move across
the northern periphery of a strengthening mid-level ridge across the
central Plains. With warming in the 850-700 mb level, it appears
that capping will likely be in place across much of the corridor
over the central Dakotas ahead of the surface front. Steep low to
mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least moderate instability
developing through the afternoon. As the wave ejects, some
eroding/weakening of the cap is expected across the central Dakotas.
Strong deep layer shear profiles will support initial supercell
development along the front. Large hail and damaging wind will be
the primary threats. It remains somewhat uncertain if storms will be
able to root and become surface based, with increasing inhibition to
the east. If a supercell can remain surface based as it moves into
increasing inhibition to the east, tornado potential will increase
given favorable deep layer shear and enlarged hodographs. 

Storms will continue to spread eastward through the
afternoon/evening into northern/central Minnesota. With increasing
inhibition, it is likely that storm mode will gradually shift to
elevated clusters, with potential for damaging wind.

...Carolinas...  
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected near a surface
boundary sagging across the Carolinas Friday afternoon. Vertically
veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will
provide around 25 kt effective shear. Given the moderately unstable
air mass and steep low-level lapse rates, a few isolated organized
storms/clusters may produce damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 07/23/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of
southeastern Arizona on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
High amplitude ridging will build in across the central US on
D3/Saturday. West to northwesterly flow aloft will move through the
northern periphery of the ridge across the Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley. 

...Southeastern Arizona...
Surface high pressure across the Four Corners will bring favorably
moist east to southeasterly flow into southeastern Arizona.
Convection will likely develop along the high terrain and spread
westward with time through the afternoon/evening. Deep layer shear
around 20-25 kts may allow for isolated organized storms capable of
severe gusts, given deeply mixed profiles and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates amid inverted-v soundings.

...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region...
Several embedded disturbances will rotate through the flow across
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. Moderate to strong
instability is progged to extend across this region, however,
warming in the 850-700 mb will likely result in strong capping
across much of the region from the Great Lakes into the Midwest and
Ohio Valley. This will likely inhibit convective development and
overall severe potential in these regions.

..Thornton.. 07/23/2026