Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today and
tonight.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough near the California coast this morning
will shift east toward the southern Rockies by Saturday morning.
Cooling aloft will support weak instability across portions of
southern AZ/NM to Far West TX. Boundary layer moisture is expected
to remain modest, with the dewpoints generally in the 40s and 50s F.
This will support scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
across southern AZ/NM, spreading eastward toward southwest TX by
late afternoon/early evening. Southerly deep-layer flow is forecast,
with effective shear magnitudes generally around 20-25 kt. Modest
shear and instability will likely limit severe potential, though
gusty winds and small hail could occur with the strongest storms. 

Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of coastal OR
into northern/central CA as a second upper shortwave trough moves
inland across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. A lightning
flash or two is possible during the nighttime hours from central CA
into the Great Basin, but overall coverage is expected to remain
less than 10 percent.

..Leitman/Chalmers.. 11/13/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. Saturday and
Saturday night.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level trough over the western US is forecast to deamplify, as
the primary shortwave continues southeastward across the southern
Rockies/Plains. To the west, another trough will deepen across the
Pacific coast while surface high pressure with cool and relatively
dry conditions dominates the East. As the upper trough migrates
across the Rockies and into the Plains Saturday/Saturday night,
strong mid-level ascent will deepen a lee cyclone from southeastern
CO into NM and West TX. Southerly flow will increase and modest
surface moisture return (40s to near 50 F dewpoints) will occur
beneath cooling mid-level temperatures over the southern High
Plains. Weak destabilization is expected with model profiles showing
perhaps up to 500 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE available.

Ascent from the upper trough and increasing low-level warm air
advection will likely support scattered thunderstorms from the Four
Corners to OK/TX from Saturday afternoon/evening. A 30-40 kt
southerly low-level jet over parts of western OK/TX may also aide in
additional convection overnight. Some potential for a few stronger
storms may exist if sufficient buoyancy and around 30-40 kts of
effective shear develop. Likely elevated, marginally severe hail
would be the primary hazard with any stronger storms able to
persist. However the scant destabilization casts significant
uncertainty on severe potential, as such, probabilities will be
withheld for now. 

Elsewhere, occasional lightning flashes will be possible along the
Pacific Northwest coast ahead of the aforementioned upper trough.
Additional storms are also possible along the lower TX Gulf coast
within the southerly return flow and warm advection regime. Very
weak buoyancy is expected and coverage, as well as any severe
potential will remain low in both locales.

..Lyons.. 11/13/2026