Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Surface front has surged into central TX, arcing across northern LA
into central MS early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have
developed ahead of this boundary over east TX and across northern
IL. This activity should gradually increase in areal coverage as the
front advances toward the northwest Gulf Coast. 00z soundings from
SHV and LCH exhibit sufficient buoyancy for lighting within deep
convection, but profiles do not favor particularly robust
thunderstorms and severe is not anticipated.

Scattered-numerous thunderstorm clusters are currently noted across
the FL Straits within a seasonally high PW air mass characterized by
weak buoyancy. Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable
short-wave trough over the eastern Gulf Basin. This feature should
continue to support convection across the Straits and the southern
FL Peninsula tonight.

..Darrow.. 12/14/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast today.

...Discussion...

Strong upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will advance
off the Middle Atlantic Coast by 15/06z as the primary midlevel
speed max translate well downstream. Dominant surface anticyclone
will settle into the mid MS/OH Valley region by late afternoon which
will effectively drive the cold front deep into Mexico and across
the southern FL Peninsula. Early in the period, isolated
thunderstorms may be noted along the trailing cold front across the
northwestern Gulf Coast region. Some risk for a few flashes of
lighting are also possible with weak convection across the southern
FL Peninsula before flow veers and stronger convergence shifts
offshore.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/14/2025