Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...

An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through
the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be
maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly
flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern
periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are
forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow
regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from
the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the
Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain,
and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe
potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks,
particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by
Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each
day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.