Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for severe/damaging gusts and perhaps brief
tornadoes may develop late tonight/early Wednesday morning across
parts of coastal California.

... 01Z Update ...

A strong short-wave trough/surface low continues to approach the
California/Oregon coast. Later tonight a midlevel speed max will
intensify, helping to deepen the surface low, which will drive a
cold front eastward into California during the overnight and morning
hours. Despite limited buoyancy, especially surface based,
strengthening tropospheric flow and forced convection along the cold
front may support isolated damaging wind gusts along the California
coast. Should truly surface-based buoyancy develop and the forced
convection can realize this buoyancy, forecast wind profiles along
the coast exhibit sufficient deep-layer shear and low-level
curvature to support brief tornadoes. The easternmost extent of this
threat, especially across southern California, is delineated by the
expected position of the surface-cold front at 12Z/4AM PT. The
threat will continue past 12Z/4AM PT.

..Marsh.. 12/24/2025

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

...Synopsis...
The expansive mid-level ridge across the central U.S. begins to move
eastward as a robust mid/upper level trough over the Northeast
Pacific continues to bring widespread rain and mountain snow to much
of the West. Persistent lee troughing under steady westerly flow
aloft should bring dry and breezy conditions on Day
3-5/Thursday-Saturday across portions of the southern High Plains
where record high temperatures are possible. The trough across the
West finally pushes deeper into Intermountain West by Day
5/Saturday, allowing fire weather concerns to linger across the
southern High Plains under an intensifying mid-level jet. A
mid-level trough deepens across the eastern U.S. early next week
ushering in a sweeping cold front that should reach the Gulf Coast
by Day 7/Monday. Dry post-frontal winds could increase fire concerns
across portions of the Southern Plains and Southeast in the Day
6-8/Sunday-Tuesday period where pockets of drier fuels exist and
minimal rainfall is expected.

...Day 3-5/Thursday-Saturday...
Anomalously warm temperatures in the 70s and 80s under a persistent
mid-level ridge will continue to dry fuels across the central and
southern High Plains through this week. Surface lee troughing across
the Plains along with downslope drying and enhanced west-southwest
winds should present an ongoing fire weather threat across portions
of far eastern NM, TX Panhandle and  far western OK. Increasing
cloud cover and surface dewpoints across the southern High Plains
could inhibit boundary layer mixing on Day 3/Thursday, limiting RH
reductions and mitigating a more widespread critical fire weather
event for the TX Panhandle. Drier conditions and lower daytime
relative humidity should return to the region Day
4-5/Friday-Saturday coinciding with enhanced southwest surface winds
under deep layer west-southwest flow. 40 percent critical
probabilities remain for portions of the TX Panhandle vicinity on
Day 4/Friday and were similarly added on Day 5/Saturday.

...Day 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday...
A cold front sweeping through the eastern U.S. should be the primary
focus for fire weather threats early next week. However, latest
model guidance suggests expansive cloud cover and potential rainfall
along and behind the front which could mitigate fire weather
concerns within the dry post frontal regime.

..Williams.. 12/23/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...