WW 638 TORNADO LA TX 241745Z - 250100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Extreme west central Louisiana
Southeast and east central Texas
* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1145 AM until
700 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected this
afternoon/evening across east central and southeast Texas, with the
potential for a few tornadoes, occasional severe thunderstorm gusts
of 60-70 mph, and large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. Later the
afternoon/evening, the severe threat will spread into western
Louisiana.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 80 miles north northeast of Lufkin TX
to 55 miles south of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Thompson
WW 0638 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0638 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 24 18:06:02 UTC 2025.SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into
the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern
Mississippi.
...East TX this afternoon to MS overnight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK/TX this morning will progress
a bit north-of-east to the lower OH and TN Valleys by Tuesday
morning. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of
the de-amplifying midlevel trough, but there will be sufficient mass
response to support a modestly strong low-level jet (roughly 40 kt)
from northeast TX this afternoon into the Ark-La-Miss by early
Tuesday. This low-level jet will correspond to the north edge of
the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 66-70 F),
and MLCAPE generally 1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the warm
front.
Convective mode is likely to remain rather messy through tonight,
though cellular elements are expected given modest forcing for
ascent along the deeper baroclinic zone from northeast TX eastward
near the LA/AR border. Warm sector supercell development is also
possible by early-mid afternoon from southeast into east TX (see MD
2222 for additional details), along a confluence zone (now from
VCT-CLL) and aided by cloud breaks where surface temperatures warm
into the 75-80 F range. The combination of moderate buoyancy and
sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support the threat for a
few supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, occasional wind
damaging and isolated large hail. The threat will spread this
afternoon across east TX and then spread eastward overnight toward
MS.
..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/24/2025
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF AL AND
EASTERN MS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are likely across parts of the Southeast/Deep
South, mainly from Tuesday morning into early evening. A couple
tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and Alabama.
...Synopsis...
A leading shortwave impulse over the Lower OH and TN Valleys will
dampen as it moves quickly northeast, downstream of an amplifying
shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis will
occur over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes, aiding in
sharpening/acceleration of a trailing cold front on Tuesday night in
the Southeast.
...Deep South...
A high shear-low CAPE environment should be present across
southern/central MS into western AL, where remnants of early-morning
supercells may yield a lingering tornado threat beyond 12Z.
Convection should generally weaken into midday, in the wake of the
leading shortwave impulse departing the TN Valley. Diurnal
destabilization should occur following early-day convection, ahead
of the initially slow-moving cold front. With upper 60s surface dew
points nosing north from the central Gulf Coast, even modest
diabatic heating will sustain moderate buoyancy.
Guidance is consistent with suggesting scattered convection
along/ahead of the outflow-modulated cold front during the
afternoon, despite otherwise nebulous large-scale ascent. Deep-layer
wind fields are expected to be subsiding from strong values early,
but likely remaining adequate for semi-discrete supercell
structures. Modest mid-level lapse rates and expected mode may
curtail greater than isolated severe hail/damaging wind threats.
Tornado potential will be dependent on timing of afternoon
convective development and the degree of low-level hodograph
curvature reduction. But there is sufficient signal to warrant a
corridor of level 2-SLGT for the risk of a couple tornadoes from
lingering storms in the mid-morning and afternoon to early evening
redevelopment. Overall severe threat should become marginal by late
evening/overnight, but may persist on a very isolated basis
east/southward in GA to the FL Panhandle.
..Grams.. 11/24/2025
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0852 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 11/24/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today.
Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS will limited fuel
status across a broad swath of the country where fuels had been
previously dry in recent days. Further north, an intensifying
cyclone over the northern High Plains will likely support strong
westerly downslope winds across portions of MT and WY. However, an
influx of cold air along with considerable cloud cover will limit RH
reductions. Dry conditions are expected to persist across the
Southeast, but weak winds should mitigate widespread fire concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 11/24/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather potential will continue to be limited for Tuesday
despite widespread strong winds across the Plains. A surface cyclone
is forecast to develop today across the northern High Plains
followed by a period of steady intensification through Tuesday
evening as it shifts into the upper MS Valley/Midwest. Strong
northwesterly winds are expected to spread across much of the
central Plains behind an attendant cold front. Latest forecast
guidance suggests widespread winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35 mph)
are likely; however, an influx of continental air should modulate RH
reductions for most locations. Furthermore, the spatial extent of
dry fuels across NE into KS (where winds should be strongest)
appears limited due to rainfall over the past 72 hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
|
