WW 685 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 142020Z - 150400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 685
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Oklahoma
West and Northwest Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms including some supercells
will continue to develop regionally, with bowing segments evolving
into this evening across the Texas Low Rolling Plains, western North
Texas, and southern Oklahoma.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles south of Midland
TX to 30 miles northwest of Fort Sill OK. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...Guyer
WW 0685 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0685 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 2375 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN TO SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Areas affected...parts of the Permian Basin to South Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 141958Z - 142200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will likely persist into the early evening,
spreading northeastward and producing areas of severe gusts and
hail.
DISCUSSION...A north-south line of storms has erupted southwest of
the Midland TX area, in a zone of strong heating and substantial
low-level moisture. These storms will likely persist for several
hours as they travel northeastward across the destabilizing air
mass. Further convection is noted northward toward Lubbock, and also
extending east from there along the old outflow boundary.
Both cells and bowing structures are expected with deep-layer
effective shear over 40 kt. Low-level shear is not particularly
strong, but does increase with northward extent. The LBB VWP shows
0-1 SRH around 75 m2/s2. Initial vigorous updrafts may support a
brief/weak tornado, with most of the severe mode being wind and
hail.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31020285 31720280 32370256 33190201 33840119 34090062
34329997 34319948 34109918 33859913 33069978 31450086
30840148 30600192 30630255 31020285
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 2374 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Areas affected...portions of southern Ohio...northern Kentucky...and
western West Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141947Z - 142215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon into the early evening hours across
portions of southern Ohio and adjacent areas of Kentucky and West
Virginia. The strongest storms may pose a damaging wind threat,
however, the overall severe weather threat is expected to remain too
isolated to warrant a watch.
DISCUSSION...Convection associated with a remnant MCV moving
eastward across the Ohio Valley is intensifying as it moves into a
modestly unstable airmass. Additionally, storms are developing
along an east-west oriented cold front in southern Ohio. Although
lapse rates are modest and limiting the updraft potential,
deep-layer shear is sufficient to assist with storm organization and
longevity. The storms will move east-southeastward through the
afternoon and evening posing an isolated risk of damaging winds,
especially for storms that cluster and grow upscale. The severe
wind threat is expected to remain too marginal/isolated to warrant a
watch, but convective trends will be monitored.
..Jirak/Guyer.. 10/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 38068505 38638425 39278407 40038411 40098242 40068125
39958068 39708013 39367974 38798001 38358064 37958121
37758211 37758342 38068505
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 2373 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 141832Z - 142130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage and intensity over
northwest Texas and develop into southwest Oklahoma through this
afternoon. Scattered strong to damaging gusts or marginal hail will
be possible.
DISCUSSION...An outflow-reinforced boundary is currently settling
south into northwest TX, with some indications of stalling. The air
mass north of this boundary is relatively cool, though areas of
strong heating should eventually aid in destabilization later today.
In the near term, visible imagery shows a prominent CU field in the
vicinity of the boundary, with a stronger cell already affecting
King County TX. Other smaller cells are also developing eastward
near the boundary.
The southwest flow regime ahead of the incoming shortwave trough,
along with increasing low-level southerly winds should aid in air
mass recovery toward the Red River Valley this afternoon, and
farther northeast later this evening as a low-level jet develops.
MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg over TX, along with effective shear of 50-60 kt
will favor cellular storm mode, and marginal hail may occur. Given
the boundary orientation, any tornado risk should be brief as cells
cross to the north.
With such high precipitable water content, substantial outflow is
expected, and a corridor of severe wind gusts may develop should
storms trend toward bowing structures.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 34399789 33879831 33229938 33010016 32980073 33310084
33960054 34949940 35079871 34859809 34399789
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and some tornado threat are
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern
Plains. A marginal wind-damage risk is possible across parts of the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern Plains/Southern High Plains...
Extensive showers and thunderstorms continue at midday across the
majority of Oklahoma to the Ozarks, and on a more scattered basis
across west/northwest Texas. This is within a very moist air mass
(with prevalent 2+ inch Precipitable Water values except the High
Plains) to the south of a synoptic front, with convective outflows
continuing to effectively augment the front including recent/fresh
outflows across southern Oklahoma/western north Texas.
An upper-level trough centered near the Four Corners areas will
overspread the central Rockies, with height falls and strengthening
winds aloft overspreading the central Plains and southern High
Plains. This will probably aid in some air mass recovery and
modification/northward flux of the outflow-related effective
boundary, with prevalent insolation at midday across the Texas Low
Rolling Plains and far southern Oklahoma to portions of central
Arkansas (and points south).
Thunderstorm redevelopment/intensification is expected along the
effective boundary, particularly across southwest Oklahoma and the
Texas Low Rolling Plains and Texas South Plains. Moderately strong
flow aloft (40-50 kt effective shear) will support some initial
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Low-level
winds will generally relax today, but should again strengthen
toward/after sunset. Some tornado threat will exist, but upscale
quasi-linear growth and bowing segments will likely be more
prevalent this evening, with damaging gusts becoming the primary
risk.
...Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States...
A semi-organized band of thunderstorms exists at midday near the
Ohio River along the Indiana/Ohio border vicinity. Relatively
cloud-free skies exist ahead of these storms through much of
Kentucky/southern Ohio toward the Appalachians. Heating combined
with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s is expected
to contribute to pockets of instability with MLCAPE approaching
1000-1250 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. As storms intensify
regionally, steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with
strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to
35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts through early evening.
..Guyer/Jirak.. 10/14/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and some tornado threat are
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern
Plains. A marginal wind-damage risk is possible across parts of the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
...20z Update...
Scattered storms, including a few supercells, have developed across
parts of northwest Texas along an east-west oriented outflow
boundary. These storms are expected to increase in
coverage/intensity over the next few hours, spreading into the
Slight Risk area of southwest Oklahoma. See MCD #2373 for additional
details.
Additional storm development is now commencing farther south across
West Texas, where clear skies have allowed several hours of
destabilization to occur, yielding 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Effective
shear of 40-45 kt will promote storm organization, with
supercellular modes initially that should transition to linear modes
with time. Damaging wind gusts are expected with this activity as it
spreads northeast into northwest Texas and southwest/central
Oklahoma through the overnight. Forecast soundings indicate
potential for a few QLCS tornadoes if sufficient destabilization
north of the aforementioned outflow boundary can occur and be
maintained.
Elsewhere, a few damaging wind gusts remain possible with the
ongoing convection moving across parts of northern Kentucky and
southern Ohio. See MCD #2374 for additional details. Probabilities
have been reduced in the wake of this activity.
..Karstens/Bentley.. 10/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026/
...Southern Plains/Southern High Plains...
Extensive showers and thunderstorms continue at midday across the
majority of Oklahoma to the Ozarks, and on a more scattered basis
across west/northwest Texas. This is within a very moist air mass
(with prevalent 2+ inch Precipitable Water values except the High
Plains) to the south of a synoptic front, with convective outflows
continuing to effectively augment the front including recent/fresh
outflows across southern Oklahoma/western north Texas.
An upper-level trough centered near the Four Corners areas will
overspread the central Rockies, with height falls and strengthening
winds aloft overspreading the central Plains and southern High
Plains. This will probably aid in some air mass recovery and
modification/northward flux of the outflow-related effective
boundary, with prevalent insolation at midday across the Texas Low
Rolling Plains and far southern Oklahoma to portions of central
Arkansas (and points south).
Thunderstorm redevelopment/intensification is expected along the
effective boundary, particularly across southwest Oklahoma and the
Texas Low Rolling Plains and Texas South Plains. Moderately strong
flow aloft (40-50 kt effective shear) will support some initial
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Low-level
winds will generally relax today, but should again strengthen
toward/after sunset. Some tornado threat will exist, but upscale
quasi-linear growth and bowing segments will likely be more
prevalent this evening, with damaging gusts becoming the primary
risk.
...Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States...
A semi-organized band of thunderstorms exists at midday near the
Ohio River along the Indiana/Ohio border vicinity. Relatively
cloud-free skies exist ahead of these storms through much of
Kentucky/southern Ohio toward the Appalachians. Heating combined
with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s is expected
to contribute to pockets of instability with MLCAPE approaching
1000-1250 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. As storms intensify
regionally, steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with
strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to
35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts through early evening.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the
mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will dig south and east across the northern/central
Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday. As this occurs, a shortwave
disturbance over the southern/central Plains will lift northeast,
eventually overspreading the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys ahead of the
developing larger-scale upper trough. A plume of moisture from the
southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and persistent warm advection
will support areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some
severe thunderstorm potential developing across the Ohio Valley.
...Mid-MS and OH Valleys...
Height falls associated with the lead upper shortwave impulse will
develop over south-central IL during the day and spread
east/northeast into the evening. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms
will reinforce an outflow/effective warm front from near the MS
River eastward roughly near the I-70 corridor across IL/IN. This
early day convection and associated cloud cover within a corridor of
persistent low-level warm advection will impact warm sector
destabilization, the degree to which remains uncertain.
Nevertheless, a narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints
will support a corridor of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, despite expected
poor lapse rates. Modest vertically veering wind profiles in the low
levels, combined with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support
transient supercells and bowing segments as additional convection
develops toward late afternoon/early evening amid an increasing
low-level jet and ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front.
Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with this
activity, in addition to a tornado or two (mainly across
south-central IL to central IN). Conditionally higher tornado
probabilities may be possible in later outlooks depending mesoscale
trends in the near-surface boundary layer influenced by early-day
convection.
Instability will wane with eastward extent across OH during the
nighttime hours and severe potential should gradually wane as storms
shift east/northeast.
...Southern Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
southeastward-advancing cold front from southwest TX toward southern
OK. A moist and modestly unstable airmass will reside across the
region, but vertical shear is expected to remain marginal (and flow
below 700 mb generally weak). Boundary-parallel shear vectors also
will support anafrontal/undercutting convective processes.
Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates also will remain poor. A stronger
storm producing gusty winds or small hail could occur, but overall
severe potential is expected to remain limited.
..Leitman.. 10/14/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A strong upper trough over the Upper Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley
early Friday will shift east through the period, becoming oriented
over the Lower Great Lakes to Southeast by Saturday morning. Strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this system will
overspread much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as a surface cold
front develops eastward. While a seasonally moist airmass will be in
place ahead of the front, possibly early day showers, cloud cover,
and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization. Where stronger
heating can occur, a narrow corridor of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE may
develop (most likely across the Mid-Atlantic). Thunderstorm activity
will increase ahead of the cold front by early afternoon and shift
east through the evening. Strong deep-layer flow will promote some
storm organization, but a more robust severe risk will be tempered
by the marginal thermodynamic environment. Still, given the
strengthen of deep-layer flow, isolated strong wind gusts are
possible during the afternoon into early evening within the corridor
of modest destabilization.
..Leitman.. 10/14/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the current Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook.
Please see previous forecast discussion for more details.
..Williams.. 10/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over the Four Corners region will send an eastward
progressing cold front into western NM today. High elevation snow is
likely in southwestern to central CO with precipitation chances
spreading into the central Plains as the trough lifts over northern
CO. Farther west, an offshore gradient will begin to develop this
afternoon in southern CA, increasing east/northeast sustained winds
to 15-20 mph amid 15-20% RH in terrain-favored gaps of western
L.A./Ventura/Santa Barbara counties; thus, locally elevated fire
weather conditions are possible where pockets of dry fuels exist.
The pressure gradient will strengthen late in the forecast period
(early Thursday morning) leading into an offshore wind event on Day
2/Thursday.
Meanwhile, high pressure will transition over the Southeast,
transporting rich Gulf moisture into the southern Plains and Ozarks.
As a result, anomalously high PWATs ranging from 1.8-2.2" and
afternoon large scale ascent will promote areas of heavy rainfall
along a sagging cold front. This system is expected to provide
relief to drying fuels across the region, especially to areas
categorized by extreme to exceptional drought.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN L.A. COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN VENTURA COUNTY...
...Southern California...
The fire weather threat will increase markedly early D2/Thursday
into the early afternoon hours as offshore flow accelerates across
portions of southern CA. Strong surface high pressure will migrate
into the Intermountain West and central U.S. through Thursday night
as a mid-level cutoff low begins to emerge across the Baja
Peninsula, supporting an increasing offshore pressure gradient
across southern CA. Resultant east-northeast winds of 15-25 mph will
emerge by late Thursday morning with related downslope drying from a
dry air mass originating from the Colorado Plateau, allowing for RH
reductions as low as 10%. Elevated highlights were expanded slightly
from western L.A. county into southern San Luis county. A corridor
of stronger east-northeast winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 40-50
mph coupled with low RH will support critical fire weather
conditions in the Simi Valley area of western L.A. county and
southeastern Ventura county where Critical highlights were
introduced.
...Sierra Foothills, portions of Sacramento Valley and Napa
Valley...
Increasing easterly downslope flow and drying into the Sacramento
Valley will promote elevated fire weather conditions for the Sierra
Nevada foothills Thursday. Poor RH recoveries tonight with some
locations not exceeding 30% will precondition fuels where ERCs are
already pushing towards the 90th percentile. East winds of 10-15 mph
(locally 20-25 mph in favored valley corridors) and daytime RH of
15% will support an elevated fire weather threat Thursday afternoon.
A building ridge aloft supporting above normal temperatures and very
dry conditions along with an offshore flow trajectories will bring a
fire weather threat to portions the Sacramento Valley and adjacent
Napa Valley area. North winds of around 15 mph in the Sacramento
Valley will transition to east-northeast over Napa Valley and nearby
coastal ranges as RH falls to as low as 10% by Thursday afternoon. A
broad extension of elevated highlights was made into the Sierra
Foothills, northern Sacramento Valley and Napa Valley areas to cover
the impacts from dry and breezy conditions amid a dry fuelscape.
..Williams.. 10/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over the central Plains will weaken and transition
to an open wave, quickly becoming absorbed within defined troughing
over the Upper Midwest on Day 2/Thursday. Meanwhile, a cutoff low
will detach into the Desert Southwest as ridging amplifies over the
Pacific Northwest. As a result, an increasing offshore pressure
gradient will promote an elevated fire weather threat for portions
of southern CA that have not seen recent rainfall.
...Southern California...
Offshore winds and fire weather impacts will increase across
southern CA as a mid-level cutoff low approaches the Baja Peninsula,
placing east-northeast flow over the region. East-northeast
sustained winds of 15-25 mph (gusts of 30-50 mph in valleys,
possibly up to 60 mph in the mountains) amid RH as low as 10% are
expected to begin Day 2/Thursday morning in western L.A. and Ventura
counties. Localized critical fire weather conditions are possible in
wind-prone corridors, but forecast ERCs only in the 60-70th
percentile range should attenuate broader impacts. Poor overnight
humidity recoveries are expected with persisting strong winds,
yielding continued fire weather impacts into Day 3/Friday. Elevated
highlights were introduced where rainfall-neglected fuels may be
receptive to new fire starts.
On the northern periphery of the mid-level low over southern CA,
easterly winds aloft will contribute to periods of gusty surface
winds amid 10-15% RH in the Sacramento Valley. North to east winds
in the valley and adjacent foothills may approach 10-15 mph, perhaps
up to 20 mph in terrain-favored areas, promoting locally elevated
fire weather conditions. Stronger wind gusts of 30-40 mph are
expected in the higher elevation Sierra; however, modest RH should
alleviate broader fire weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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