Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and
northern Plains, but especially across parts of Nebraska and South
Dakota. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of
the Southeast.

...Central and Northern Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota...
An amplifying shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery over
Wyoming this morning will continue east and then a bit southeastward
through tonight toward the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest.
A cold front will become more southeastward-progressive later today
and tonight, intercepting a moisture-rich air mass across Kansas
into Nebraska/South Dakota. 

Early day scattered precipitation/cloud cover will tend to abate
and/or shift away from the region later today, allowing for ample
insolation near a surface trough and ahead of the front.
Mid-tropospheric winds will be weak, but a few initial supercells
could occur in vicinity of south-central South Dakota into central
Nebraska amidst somewhat stronger effective shear. Some severe hail
will be possible early in the developmental cycle, but damaging
winds should be an increasing and more common concern with the
expectation that storms will cluster, grow upscale, and progress
southeastward this evening, aided by an increasingly strong
southwesterly low-level jet.

Further west into parts of the High Plains, pockets of moderate
instability may develop in parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas
and eastern Montana. Although large-scale ascent will be weak in
these areas, topographic forcing will aid convective initiation.
During the mid/late afternoon into evening, isolated to scattered
storms will move east-southeastward into the lower elevations,
including the possibility of storms spreading from southern
Saskatchewan into northeast Montana, where a somewhat more
severe-favorable environment will exist. Localized strong to severe
wind gusts and hail will be possible regionally.

...Southeast/Florida...
A very moist air mass will persist regionally to the south of a
generally west/east-oriented front. Scattered thunderstorms are
already ongoing this morning particularly across northern Florida
and nearby offshore waters, with additional storm development
expected to the north near and just south of the front where
stronger insolation/destabilization is expected. Some of the
stronger storms that develop and mature will be capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts through late afternoon/early evening.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/30/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and
northern Plains, but especially across parts of South Dakota,
Nebraska, and north-central Kansas. Isolated severe wind gusts may
also occur across parts of the Southeast.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within a modest
warm-air advection regime from central SD into northeast NE. These
storms will likely weaken over the next few hours as the low to
mid-level flow decreases. This should allow for sufficient airmass
recovery/destabilization by the late afternoon across much of the
region. Recent surface analysis depicted 70s dewpoints into far
south-central NE, as well as pockets of greater low-level moisture
in western SD and ahead of a cold front in northeast ND. Heating
within this moist environment to the west of the ongoing storms (and
associated cloudiness) is expected to result in a corridor of strong
to very strong buoyancy by this afternoon. 

Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across
southeast MT and WY. Expectation is for this wave to continue
eastward, interacting with the destabilized and buoyant airmass
across the north/central Plains to support thunderstorm development.
Initial development appears most likely across western/central SD
where the ascent attendant to this shortwave trough will be
augmented by mesoscale lift near a surface low currently over
southwest SD. A more cellular mode is likely early in the convective
cycle, with a trend towards a more clustered/linear mode thereafter.
Primary threat will be strong gusts with some isolated hail
possible, particularly early during the more cellular mode. 

In addition to the low over southwest SD, recent surface analysis
placed another low over northwest KS. Weak troughing between these
lows, likely sharpened by baroclinicity driven by differential
heating, could act as a favorable corridor for forward propagation
if a more coherent linear structure materializes.

...Eastern ND into northern MN...
Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from eastern ND
into northern MN along a southeastward-progressing cold front
forecast to move through the region. Moderate buoyancy will precede
this front, but vertical shear will be modest, limiting storm
organization and duration. Even so, buoyancy will be strong enough
for occasional damaging gusts and isolated instances of hail.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Pockets of moderate instability may develop in parts of eastern
Colorado, western Kansas and eastern Montana. Although large-scale
ascent will be weak in these areas, topographic forcing will aid
convective initiation. During the mid/late afternoon into evening,
isolated to scattered storms will move east-southeastward into the
lower elevations, with localized strong to severe wind gusts and
hail possible. Slightly stronger vertical shear is possible across
north-central/northeast MT, where a few more organized storms are
possible.

...Central Gulf Coast into northern FL/southern GA...
A modest baroclinic boundary extends from central AL southeastward
through southern/southeast GA. Dewpoints to the south of this
boundary are in the 70s, with temperatures already in the upper
80s/low 90s. Moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to build
across this region south of the boundary, with low-level convergence
contributing to scattered to widespread thunderstorm development.
Vertical shear will remain weak, and a largely disorganized
multicellular storm mode is expected. Even so, water loading within
some of the stronger storms that develop and mature could result in
isolated damaging wind gusts through late afternoon/early evening.

..Mosier/Moore.. 07/30/2026