Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur farther east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this evening.

...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Michigan...
At mid-levels, flow will remain westerly across much of the central
U.S. tonight, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward across the
lower to Mid Mississippi Valley. In response, moisture advection
will increase from the southern and central Plains northeastward
into the Upper Midwest, as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens
this evening and overnight. The northern edge of the low-level jet
will be located from Iowa eastward into southern Wisconsin and
northern Illinois, where lift will be maximized. Within this zone,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
evening into the overnight period.

On radar, isolated thunderstorms are already ongoing across
east-central Iowa this evening. In the vicinity of this storm, RAP
forecast soundings early this evening show a near surface inversion,
with MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg, effective shear near 40 knots and
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This will be favorable for a
severe threat with cells that initiate later this evening. The
storms will likely be elevated and could become supercells with
potential for large hail. The greatest threat for large hail will be
located along and just to the north of the strongest instability,
from near Des Moines east-northeastward to the vicinity of Chicago
and Milwaukee. Hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible
with the strongest of supercells. A marginal wind-damage threat may
also develop as convective coverage increases from late this evening
into the overnight period.

Further east into Lower Michigan, scattered convective initiation is
expected by early Tuesday morning. These storms could have an
isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts, but the threat is
expected to be marginal and more localized due to weaker
instability.

...Southern Plains...
A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
west-central Kansas. Lift associated with this feature is
contributing to convective development across the eastern Texas
Panhandle this evening. These storms are located just to the west of
an axis of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range, according to the RAP. Forecast soundings near Childress
have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, with very steep low to
mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This should be favorable for a
marginal wind-damage threat, with any threat expected to persist for
a couple more hours.

..Broyles.. 03/31/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress from the western U.S. into the
Great Plains by D4/Thursday, with a more amplified trough entering 
the central CONUS by the weekend. The active trough pattern will
bring cooler temperatures, much needed rain, and higher elevation
snow to much of the western U.S. with precipitation expanding
eastward east of the Continental Divide through the remainder of the
week. This should reduce fire weather concerns overall, with
exceptions across the central and southern High Plains where
precipitation will be limited to where pockets of dry/receptive
fuels are likely to remain. Intensification of a lee-surface low
will occur across CO/KS on Day 5/Friday before moving northeast to
the Great Lakes region D6/Saturday. An upper ridge builds back
across the western U.S. thereafter, bringing back warm and dry
weather towards the end of the forecast period. 

...Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday - Southern High Plains and far West
Texas...
Broad southwesterly flow enters southeastern NM and western TX on
D3/Wednesday as a mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the
Southern Plains. Deeper boundary layer moisture and associated
rainfall should remain to the east of the southern High Plains,
allowing dry and receptive fuels to persist. Strong westerly
mid-level winds and lee surface troughing will continue to support
dry, downslope favored flow across the southern High Plains for both
D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. 40% critical probabilities have been
maintained for much of eastern NM and western TX, though the
inclusion of 70% critical probabilities in future outlooks may be
needed amid the strong mid-level flow and receptive fuels.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 03/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...