WW 274 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 052025Z - 060400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Southern Minnesota
West-Central Wisconsin
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across
west-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. These
storms will likely continue eastward/southeastward throughout the
afternoon, posing a threat for large hail and damaging gusts from
central/southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of
Redwood Falls MN to 30 miles north of Camp Douglas WI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Mosier
WW 0274 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0274 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 0988 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0988
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern Wisconsin into western Upper
Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051938Z - 052115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some increase in the potential for damaging wind gusts is
possible this afternoon as storms evolve eastward across northern
Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan. Small to marginally severe
hail also remains possible with any stronger storms.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection just east of the WI/MN border has
shown some signs of upscale growth into a bowing segment/cluster
along an outflow boundary over the past hour. Additional
thunderstorm development is also noted along an east-west oriented
lake breeze inland of the southern shore of Lake Superior. While
this convection has largely remained sub-severe through 1930 UTC,
producing a report of pea sized hail and a measured gust of 48 mph,
steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing buoyancy amid
continued diurnal heating (per latest mesoanalysis) may support some
increase in the potential for damaging wind gusts through this
afternoon as this cluster progresses eastward. Small to marginally
severe hail also remains possible with the most robust cores even
though mid-level lapse rates weaken with eastward extent.
Despite the increasing thunderstorm coverage and potential for an
uptick in damaging wind potential, weak effective shear (20-25 kts
or less) is expected to largely temper storm organization and
severity. Thus, watch issuance remains unlikely at this time.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46569220 46818967 46878812 46688715 46408660 45868646
45398669 44778723 44568768 44388816 44338917 44349047
44559184 44719257 44969289 45289308 45659309 46169277
46569220
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FROM
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to
develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Strong to
severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the
upper Mississippi Valley.
...Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest KS, near the
intersection of weak lee troughing and the western edge of a remnant
outflow boundary extending across southern NE. Upper 60s/low 70s
dewpoints are already in place east/southeast of this surface low
and outflow boundary. Southerly/southeasterly flow will persist
throughout the day, maintaining a large fetch of low-level moisture
advection from the southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. Steeper
mid-level lapse rates are also emerging out of the central High
Plains, spreading gradually eastward over these moist low-levels
throughout the day. As a result, a corridor of strong to very strong
buoyancy is anticipated from south-central NE/north-central KS along
the IA/MO border into far west-central IL by the late afternoon.
Expectation is that the outflow boundary will gradually retreat
northward while the cold front progresses slowly southeastward
across SD and NE. Convective initiation is anticipated along both of
these boundaries, beginning over north-central KS/south-central NE
near the surface low at the outflow boundary/cold front
intersection. Most guidance indicates this initiation will occur
after 00Z, but earlier initiation appears possible given moist
low-levels, robust heating, and mesoscale convergence. Recent RAP
soundings indicate minimal convective initiation by 21Z.
Once initiation occurs, strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg)
will support intense updrafts capable of large to isolated very
large hail. Modest deep-layer shear (i.e. effective bulk shear less
than 30 kt) could limit storm organization, with a trend towards a
more outflow-dominant mode. The generally modest mid-level flow also
suggests upscale growth into an organized convective line is low.
Even so, a combination of convergence along the outflow and/or cold
front, as well as modest warm-air advection, will contribute to
additional storm development eastward into the Mid MS Valley.
...Upper Midwest...
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
north-central WI southwestward through central SD. A low exists
along this boundary near the ND/SD/WI border intersection. This low
is forecast to track eastward along the front as it gradually shifts
southeastward, moving in tandem with a shortwave trough moving
through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Buoyancy will be
more limited here than areas farther south, but still sufficient for
a few stronger, more organized storms, particularly since the
deep-layer vertical shear will be stronger. Discrete storms with
large hail as the primary risk are possible early in the convective
cycle. Thereafter, a trend towards more bowing segments with
damaging gusts is expected. Multiple rounds of storms are possible,
and the overall coverage is expected to be high enough to merit
introducing 15% hail and wind probabilities.
...Lower MI...
An MCV (associated with an overnight MCS) is moving across northern
IL/far southern WI this morning. Activity associated with this MCV
is currently weak and non-severe, but potential for
re-intensification exists this afternoon as activity moves into
northern IN and southern lower MI. Cloud cover introduces some
uncertainty regarding daytime heating and resultant buoyancy.
However, if sufficient daytime heating can occur, steep lapse rates
and mesoscale organization of the MCS could result in sporadic
damaging winds.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/05/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
expected to develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of
the central Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys. Strong to severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible
in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor
changes made to the ongoing thunder and severe probabilities to
reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 06/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026/
...Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest KS, near the
intersection of weak lee troughing and the western edge of a remnant
outflow boundary extending across southern NE. Upper 60s/low 70s
dewpoints are already in place east/southeast of this surface low
and outflow boundary. Southerly/southeasterly flow will persist
throughout the day, maintaining a large fetch of low-level moisture
advection from the southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. Steeper
mid-level lapse rates are also emerging out of the central High
Plains, spreading gradually eastward over these moist low-levels
throughout the day. As a result, a corridor of strong to very strong
buoyancy is anticipated from south-central NE/north-central KS along
the IA/MO border into far west-central IL by the late afternoon.
Expectation is that the outflow boundary will gradually retreat
northward while the cold front progresses slowly southeastward
across SD and NE. Convective initiation is anticipated along both of
these boundaries, beginning over north-central KS/south-central NE
near the surface low at the outflow boundary/cold front
intersection. Most guidance indicates this initiation will occur
after 00Z, but earlier initiation appears possible given moist
low-levels, robust heating, and mesoscale convergence. Recent RAP
soundings indicate minimal convective initiation by 21Z.
Once initiation occurs, strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg)
will support intense updrafts capable of large to isolated very
large hail. Modest deep-layer shear (i.e. effective bulk shear less
than 30 kt) could limit storm organization, with a trend towards a
more outflow-dominant mode. The generally modest mid-level flow also
suggests upscale growth into an organized convective line is low.
Even so, a combination of convergence along the outflow and/or cold
front, as well as modest warm-air advection, will contribute to
additional storm development eastward into the Mid MS Valley.
...Upper Midwest...
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
north-central WI southwestward through central SD. A low exists
along this boundary near the ND/SD/WI border intersection. This low
is forecast to track eastward along the front as it gradually shifts
southeastward, moving in tandem with a shortwave trough moving
through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Buoyancy will be
more limited here than areas farther south, but still sufficient for
a few stronger, more organized storms, particularly since the
deep-layer vertical shear will be stronger. Discrete storms with
large hail as the primary risk are possible early in the convective
cycle. Thereafter, a trend towards more bowing segments with
damaging gusts is expected. Multiple rounds of storms are possible,
and the overall coverage is expected to be high enough to merit
introducing 15% hail and wind probabilities.
...Lower MI...
An MCV (associated with an overnight MCS) is moving across northern
IL/far southern WI this morning. Activity associated with this MCV
is currently weak and non-severe, but potential for
re-intensification exists this afternoon as activity moves into
northern IN and southern lower MI. Cloud cover introduces some
uncertainty regarding daytime heating and resultant buoyancy.
However, if sufficient daytime heating can occur, steep lapse rates
and mesoscale organization of the MCS could result in sporadic
damaging winds.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across
parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid
Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
The mid-level pattern will amplify on Saturday with a ridge building
across the Upper Midwest into central Canada with an amplifying
trough across the Northeast and another trough across the Northwest.
A surface low will deepen across southern Quebec during the day with
a cold front extending into the Ohio Valley. A lee cyclone will also
develop across eastern Montana as the mid-level trough advances
eastward.
...Ohio Valley to the Northeast...
A cluster of storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across
parts of the Ohio Valley. These storms should gradually weaken
through the morning as they move east. West-southwesterly low-level
flow will strengthen through the morning as the surface low deepens
and the pressure gradient tightens. This will result in moisture
advection ahead of the cold front from Ohio into Pennsylvania and
New York. Clouds from morning convection will limit destabilization
initially, however, once these clouds clear, an uncapped environment
with moderate instability is expected to develop rather quickly
along the cold front. Continued mid-level ascent and convergence
along the front should support thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. Moderate (40 knot) flow aloft should support storm
organization including the potential for supercells and linear
clusters. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threats. More widespread wind damage may occur from far eastern Ohio
across Pennsylvania and into southeast New York and northern New
Jersey where the strongest instability and shear will be present and
a broken line of storms appears likely.
...Northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota...
Destabilization will occur during the day across eastern Montana and
western North Dakota as southeasterly surface winds strengthen ahead
of the deepening lee cyclone and advect low 60s dewpoints into the
region. As height falls overspread this area, storms are expected to
develop by mid afternoon across central and southeast Montana. As
these storms move into the greater instability to the
east/northeast, the large hail/severe wind threat is expected to
increase. The strong surface heating and steep low-mid level lapse
rates across the northern Plains, combined with the increasing
shear, will provide an environment supporting 70-80 mph wind gusts.
In fact some guidance, such as the 12Z NSSL WRF, show an MCS with a
80+ knot rear-inflow jet which could support 80+ mph wind gusts if
it were to materialize.
...Southern Plains...
A moist environment with 70+F dewpoints will be present across the
southern Plains on Saturday. Moderate instability is forecast as
temperatures cool aloft with a weak mid-level shortwave trough
overspreading the area. This moist, unstable airmass and 30 to 35
knots of shear will support organized storms including a few
supercells capable of isolated large hail and/or water-loaded
downbursts.
..Bentley.. 06/05/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More
isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a mid-level trough will move from the East Coast to the
Atlantic with a strong ridge across the Great Lakes. A large scale
trough will be in place across the western CONUS with an embedded
shortwave trough moving from the Northwest to the northern Rockies
through the day. At the surface, a lee trough will extend along the
High Plains from eastern Montana to West Texas.
...Northern Plains and Vicinity...
Moderate to strong instability will develop across the northern
Plains with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Farther west, wrap-around
moisture will result in modest destabilization into northeast
Wyoming and eastern Montana. Storms will first develop in this area.
While instability will be less within this zone, stronger mid-level
flow will support storm organization including the potential for
supercells. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary
threat. In addition to this activity, additional storms are expected
along the dryline/front in central North Dakota where instability
will be greatest and temperatures are expected to warm into the
upper 80s to low 90s.
...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic...
Diurnal heating and upper 60s dewpoints will support modest
destabilization ahead of the surface front across eastern Virginia
and vicinity on Sunday. Mid-level forcing associated with the
southeastward moving trough will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Damaging
winds will be the primary threat from these storms with the threat
expected to wane after sunset.
..Bentley.. 06/05/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 051700Z - 061200Z
No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 06/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move over the Northwest Coast
increasing mid-level southwesterly flow across the northern Rockies
and portions of the Great Basin. A second, weaker upper low and
associated moisture will move from Northern Mexico into the southern
Plains. While flow aloft will be weak over much of the Southwest,
hot and dry conditions will support elevated fire-weather potential.
...Great Basin and Southwest...
To the immediate south of the belt of stronger mid-level flow,
stagnant mid-level heights will promote a very warm and dry air mass
across much of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. Very low
daytime RH near 10% to upper single digits are expected amid 10-15
mph terrain-driven winds. Exacerbated by poor overnight humidity
recoveries and drying fuels, these conditions will support elevated
fire weather concerns across northwest Arizona, southeastern Nevada,
and southwestern Utah through the afternoon hours.
Farther east into parts of western NM, mid-level moisture associated
with the upper low over northern Mexico will promote isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Steep
low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases will favor limited
precipitation efficiency. This could allow for some drier storms.
However, fuels over the area are less receptive owing to recent
precipitation. Still, occasional lightning starts are possible
within locally drier fuel beds.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND SOUTHWEST...
An isolated dry thunderstorm area was added across northeastern
Colorado with this update. While some areas of the Front Range and
High Plains have received above average rainfall in May, the plains
to the northeast saw less. Recent guidance from local partners
suggests that though some green up is occurring, underlying fuel
load is sufficiently dry to carry fire. Precipitable water values
range around 0.9-1" but isolated coverage and generally fast storm
motions will likely lead to little measurable precipitation.
Elevated highlights were also expanded to cover potential for
dry/windy conditions in the afternoon.
Critical conditions are expected across much of the Great Basin into
the Southwest Saturday afternoon. No changes were made to these
outlook areas. See previous discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 06/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper trough over the Northwest is forecast to deepen and
intensify as it spread eastward into the Northern Rockies and
southern Canada Saturday. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will
move southeastward, overspreading a dry and hot air mass over much
of the western US. This will promote widespread elevated and
critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels from the Great basin
to the Southwest.
...Great Basin, Intermountain West and the Southwest...
As the upper trough over the Northwest/northern Rockies intensifies,
a belt of stronger flow will overspread the hot and dry surface
conditions across the Western US. The mid-level jet max will aid in
efficient mixing of strong winds to the surface. Sustained southwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph are anticipated. With continued poor overnight
recoveries, RH values in the single digits and low teens are
expected on a widespread basis. Sustained critical fire weather
conditions are expected across portions of eastern NV, southern UT,
and northern AZ.
Weaker flow aloft farther south and east will still promote
widespread elevated conditions with 10-20% RH and surface gusts of
15-20 mph. Potentially enhanced by local terrain across southern AZ
into the Four Corners, some potential for brief critical conditions
may develop given drying fuels and increasing burn period duration.
...ID and Northern Rockies...
Ascent from the upper trough will impinge on the western edge of
surface moisture moving westward into the higher terrain. This
ascent and diurnal heating could support isolated thunderstorm
development across southern and eastern ID. Likely high-based, these
fast-moving storms would have limited precipitation efficiency.
Isolated dry lightning strikes would be possible. Currently,
convection appears more likely farther northeast where moisture is
more robust.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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