Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are
possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday
afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind
occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern
and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.

...Plains...
A flat upper ridge will be present today over the southwest states
and southern Rockies, while stronger flow aloft extends from the
northern Rockies into the mid MS Valley and eastern states.  The
cold front that triggered convection over OK on Friday has stalled
over north TX and will slowly return northward through the day
today.  Despite relatively weak low-level winds, dewpoints will
climb through the 50s across western OK leading to an axis of
moderate CAPE by late afternoon.  Strong heating along/behind a
diffuse dryline will likely lead to isolated thunderstorm
development.  Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer
shear will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail.
Given the weak forcing aloft, storm coverage is likely to be rather
sparse through the evening. But those storms that can persist will
be in a progressively more moist and sheared environment that could
support the risk of a tornado or two.

Elsewhere farther north, steep low and mid-level lapse rates will
promote a risk of scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms
capable of gusty winds and hail from eastern WY/CO into western
NE/KS.

...Gulf Coast...
Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over parts of
LA/MS/AL.  This activity will persist through the day and spread
eastward.  Limited heating and rather weak shear profiles will limit
the overall severe threat.  But nevertheless a few storms may
occasionally become intense - capable of gusty/damaging winds and
hail.

...Lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic...
A large upper trough will track from Ontario into Quebec today,
while the associated cold front sweeps southeastward across the
lower Great Lakes region. Sufficient instability is forecast to
support a line of thunderstorms forming over Lakes Erie/Ontario and
spreading into parts of OH/PA/NY this evening.  Gusty winds and
small hail are expected, with a few reports of severe wind/hail
possible.  

A corridor of moderate surface heating will extend from central VA
into NJ today, helping to destabilize this region and lead to widely
scattered afternoon thunderstorms.  CAM solutions suggest the storms
that form will struggle to organize/intensify, but there will be
sufficient CAPE/shear to support some risk of a damaging wind gust
or two through early evening.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/09/2026