Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms
across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the
early evening.

...Western OK into northwest TX...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the
central and southern High Plains moving northeast while a
smaller-scale upper jet moves across the TX Panhandle into OK.  A
lee trough will extend southward through the High Plains and act to
maintain southerly low-level flow and a fetch of modest moisture
(surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F).  Scattered showers
and thunderstorms ongoing this morning will likely dissipate with
additional storm activity expected to develop around 21-23 UTC.
Sufficiently steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon and
the erosion of MLCINH will likely result in widely scattered to
scattered storms developing from south-central KS through western OK
and parts of west/northwest TX.  Adequately strong deep-layer shear
for storm organization will aid in a few of the stronger
thunderstorms to be capable of an isolated threat for large hail and
severe gusts (mainly 22z-02z).

Elsewhere, quiescent conditions for severe weather are expected to
prevail.

..Smith/Bentley.. 09/26/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms
across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the
early evening.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK will continue generally
eastward through the larger-scale ridge and slowly weaken by
tonight.  Scattered convection and widespread clouds persist this
morning from southwest OK into KS in the primary zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough, though clearing from the west is
expected this afternoon.  Surface heating west of the clouds and
within an axis of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low-mid 60s) along a weak surface trough could support
additional, surface-based thunderstorms this afternoon across
western OK into northwest TX.  Relatively deep mixing/inverted-V
profiles appear to favor isolated strong outflow gusts as the
primary hazard late this afternoon/evening.  Vertical shear will be
on the lower margins for supercells with marginally severe hail.

Elsewhere, occasional/mainly elevated thunderstorms will be possible
through tonight from northeast OK northward to IA.  Other isolated
lightning flashes will remain possible through the day near the
southeast New England coast with elevated convection atop a
low-level warm advection regime.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 09/26/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes were made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Locally
elevated fire weather concerns including south-southwest winds of
15-20 mph and RH reductions of around 15% will exist over portions
of central/eastern NV today, but marginal fuels should attenuate
these meteorological impacts. Please see the previous discussion for
details.

..Williams.. 09/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will amplify over the western CONUS today,
supporting strengthening south-southwesterly flow across the
southern/central Great Basin. Deep boundary-layer mixing will yield
south-southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH
across portions of southern/central NV. While locally elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible, recent rainfall and marginal
fuels should generally limit fire-weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...