Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Midlevel short-wave trough is advancing east across eastern CO/NM
early this evening. In response, 850mb flow is beginning to increase
across the southern Plains. Latest satellite/radar imagery support
this with weak convection now developing in response to low-level
warm advection across southern OK/AR. Later this evening, lightning
is expected to develop with this activity downstream across the
lower MS Valley, but forecast soundings suggest MUCAPE/lapse rates
will be a bit too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe
hail. As 850mb flow becomes more westerly late tonight, scattered
convection will spread/develop across the Gulf States, especially
along/north of the synoptic front which will be draped from central
MS/AL into SC.

..Darrow.. 02/21/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT ERROR

...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will amplify D3/Sunday as a trough deepens over the
far Southeastern US and Atlantic Coast. Widespread rainfall across
much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire weather
concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited farther south
across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern for FL where
dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire weather
threat for Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. The upper ridge will begin
to break down D5/Tuesday, introducing dry return flow and downslope
winds across the Central and Southern Plains, potentially increasing
fire weather concerns through the extended period. 

...Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday - Florida and Southern Plains...
Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
3/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
precipitation across FL. A mostly dry cold front will pass through
the northern FL peninsula late morning D3/Sunday bringing post
frontal northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH of 20-30
percent. Coincident dry fuels should increase the fire weather
threat for a few afternoon hours where 40% Critical probabilities
have been maintained.

As the upper-level trough deepens on D4/Monday, dry northwesterly
flow is expected to continue with poor overnight RH recovery. 40%
Critical probabilities have been expanded to northern FL where
strong winds and critically low minimum RH will overlap dry fuels.
While minimal rainfall is expected on D3/Sunday, uncertainty in
amount and extent precludes the introduction of 70% probabilities
for now. 

Cooler dry return flow will enter the Southern Plains on D3/Sunday
and D4/Monday. This will allow for continued drying of the
fuelscape, setting the stage for increased fire weather concerns on
D5/Tuesday.

...Day 5/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
Fire weather concerns reemerge across portions of the central and
southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
starts to break down. 40% critical probabilities have been added
where a combination of low RH and strong westerly winds overlap dry
fuels in eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Beneath the upper-level
ridge a surface low will emerge in the lee of the Laramie Range,
tightening a surface pressure gradient across eastern WY and western
NE. Very strong downslope winds may occur, though cooler
temperatures and RH uncertainties have limited the introduction of
70% Critical probabilities for now.

...Day 6/Wednesday - West Texas...
40% Critical probabilities have been maintained across the West TX
region as long-range models are hinting at hot, dry, and windy
conditions atop dry fuels. Increasing northwest flow aloft and
induced surface lee troughing will support increased fire weather
concerns. 

...Day 7/Thursday - D8/Friday... 
Uncertainty is too high for the extended period to introduce
probabilities for Critical conditions. Nevertheless, as the
upper-ridge flattens and multiple short-wave impulses cross central
CONUS, the pattern may suggest an ongoing fire weather threat
through the forecast period.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliott.. 02/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...