Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows an elongated upper low centered over
the TX Big Bend vicinity. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
currently ongoing within the broad warm-air advection regime
downstream of this low from central and south TX across much of the
TX Coastal Plains into southeast TX. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings
sampled a seasonally moist airmass characterized by PW values over
1.8" and poor lapse rates. General expectation is for showers and
elevated thunderstorms to continue throughout the day while
diminishing in strength and intensity as an embedded shortwave
trough continues northeastward. The warm sector, which is
characterized by upper 60s dewpoints, is forecast to remain largely
offshore as the associated surface low drifts very slowly eastward. 
These factors should all act to keep the overall severe weather
threat very low.

Guidance also suggests a fast-moving shortwave trough will progress
through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, with the
primary frontal band arriving close to 00Z. Occasional lightning
flashes may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will
be fairly cold, but most of the convection should be shallow.
Enhanced southwesterly flow will exist across the region, but the 
limited instability and shallow storm depth should limit the risk
for severe gusts.

..Mosier/Moore.. 11/09/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1041 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday into early Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level impulses will traverse the northern CONUS and the Gulf
Coast on Tuesday, reinforcing surface high pressure and an
accompanying stable airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting
thunderstorm development. A couple of thunderstorms may develop
along the TX coastline as the Gulf Coast mid-level impulse
overspreads seasonal moisture. A lightning flash or two may
accompany impulses across the northwest Washington coastline and
northern New England. A thunderstorm or two may also develop over
the central FL Peninsula within a weak warm-air advection regime.
However, the very sparse thunder coverage precludes general thunder
highlights over these areas.

..Squitieri.. 11/09/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 091700Z - 101200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The previous forecast remains on track with minimal fire weather
concerns across the CONUS today.

..Williams.. 11/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026/

...Synopsis...
A split-flow pattern will be in place across much of the CONUS
through the day today, with the polar jet across the northern tier
of states and subtropical jet across south Texas. This will
generally result in weak forcing across much of the central and
western US, leading to light surface winds across these regions.
Some pockets of marginal (25-30%) RH are possible across portions of
the southern Plains in the afternoon, though given fuels that are
generally not receptive and the aforementioned light surface winds,
no highlights are warranted at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...