Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening over the central Great Plains.  The stronger thunderstorms
will potentially be capable of large to very large hail, severe
gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

...NE Panhandle into the northern High Plains...
A mid-level trough along the UT/CO border will migrate slowly
northeast with a belt of 20-40 kt cyclonic 500-mb flow wrapping
cyclonically through the base of the trough into the NE Panhandle
and Black Hills.  In the low levels, an elongated area of surface
low pressure/lee trough will focus thunderstorm development later
this afternoon/evening.  The western part of a moisture plume
extending from the southern Great Plains northward into western
NE/SD will feature 50s to lower 60 F dewpoints.  Strong heating and
large-scale ascent will combine to weaken the capping inversion and
result in widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late
afternoon.  Slightly stronger deep-layer shear across NE will favor
a mix of supercells and multicells with the stronger storms.  Large
hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms through the mid evening as this activity probably
grows upscale into a linear cluster or two.

...NE-KS and into OK-TX...
Models continue to show a sharp dryline across western/central
KS, western OK, and into west TX by late afternoon.  Main lobe of
forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough will likely
glance the northwestern quadrant of KS into NE.  Surface
mesoanalysis this morning shows a low over northeast CO near AKO and
an effective outflow boundary draped east along I-70 in
north-central KS.  North of the boundary, easterly surface winds
will contribute to maintaining moist upslope flow.  

Ample heating in wake of early morning convection and an
increasingly rich moisture plume arcing from north-central OK into
southwest NE, will favor a very unstable airmass developing by
mid-late afternoon (3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE).  Some forecast
uncertainty remains regarding low-level hodographs due to model
spread (e.g., RAP and HRRR time-lagged depictions favoring more
supercells vs. NAM with less favorable hodographs and indicative of
more multicellular structures).  Furthermore, effective shear is
forecast to be only 25-35 knots and will likely straddle the
multicell-supercell spectrum.  Where slightly stronger shear and
some enlargement of clockwise-curved hodographs are currently
expected, it is where supercells are more probable and the risk for
large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are increasingly
possible.  Have opted to include a 5-percent tornado risk over
north-central KS into southwest NE, with this region being located
north of this morning's west-east boundary and in closer proximity
to the upper wave.  Farther south, lower storm coverage (isolated)
is expected into OK and more sparse and widely spaced activity
farther south along the dryline in parts of west TX.  Large hail and
severe gusts are the primary hazards with these storms.  

...Southwest Missouri into central Arkansas...
A zone of isentropic ascent near 850 mb will become established
across the Ozark Plateau by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely within this corridor.  Models show large
SBCAPE (3000 J/kg) and adequate deep-layer shear for some storm
organization.  A few stronger cells may be capable of large hail and
perhaps strong/severe wind gusts.

..Smith/Kerr.. 05/30/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over
the central Great Plains.  The stronger thunderstorms will
potentially be capable of severe gusts, large hail, and a couple of
tornadoes.

...Central KS into OK...
A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across
the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level
jet moving into the region.  Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds
in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a
zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of
central KS and northern OK.  This region will be most favorable for
severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being
the primary concern.

Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from
southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border.  Temperatures
approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer,
promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that
favor supercell structures.  As this activity spreads northeastward
through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will
remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be
possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode.  Activity
should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable
environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.

...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle...
Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned
surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the
northern foothills of CO.  Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and
near the dryline over northwest KS.  All of this activity will build
northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of
supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two.  These storms may remain at least
occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.

..Hart/Weinman.. 05/30/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 301700Z - 311200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more
information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move slowly north out of the central Rockies
into the northern Rockies. The resulting Pacific Northwest trough
and northern Gulf subtropical ridge will place much of Southwest
into the central US beneath broadly southwest flow. Morning water
vapor imagery suggests a developing mid-level wave/vorticity maximum
across northern Mexico, and this feature will quickly move northwest
within the mid-level flow.

Large scale fire weather concerns will be low on Day 1/Saturday as 
regions with receptive fuels (Southwest/Great Basin) will largely be
removed from regions with stronger flow, and regions where flow
would support a fire weather concern, recent rainfall should
mitigate that threat.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...