WW 468 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 070120Z - 070700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
820 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Minnesota
Extreme Southeast North Dakota
Northeast South Dakota
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 820 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster over northwest/north-central
Minnesota is forecast to develop southeastward this evening into
early Tuesday morning while posing a threat for mainly scattered
severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 65-75 mph on an
isolated basis, and an embedded tornado or two may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north
northwest of Watertown SD to 55 miles east northeast of Brainerd MN.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This severe thunderstorm watch replaces
severe thunderstorm watch number 466. Watch number 466 will not
be in effect after 820 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 467...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30030.
...Gleason
WW 467 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 062125Z - 070300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
425 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Arkansas
Northern Louisiana
Northeast Texas
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Loosely organized clusters should continue to pose a
threat for mainly damaging winds this afternoon and evening as they
develop slowly east-southeastward. Occasional hail may also occur
with the strongest cores.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles northwest of
Longview TX to 15 miles south of Monroe LA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 466...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28015.
...Gleason
WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0468 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 467
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LFK TO 40 SW
MLU TO 40 ENE MLU.
..MOORE..07/07/26
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 467
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC021-043-059-069-085-127-070240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL GRANT LA SALLE
NATCHITOCHES SABINE WINN
TXC403-405-070240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0466 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 466
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ABR
TO 30 SSE TVF TO 15 E INL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529
..SMITH..07/06/26
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 466
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-005-007-021-027-029-035-051-057-061-071-087-107-111-159-
167-070040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI
CASS CLAY CLEARWATER
CROW WING GRANT HUBBARD
ITASCA KOOCHICHING MAHNOMEN
NORMAN OTTER TAIL WADENA
WILKIN
NDC017-073-077-081-070040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 7 01:21:04 UTC 2026.SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND A
SMALL PART OF LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts remain possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this evening into tonight. Isolated damaging wind
gusts will also be possible over parts of the northern Rockies into
northern High Plains, Louisiana, and the southern Mid-Atlantic.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
Recent trends in radar data indicate the coalescing of individual
thunderstorms into a broader-scale cluster east of Fargo. The
impingement of the cold front on that convection should foster
further morphology into more of a line configuration with bowing
characteristics late this evening into tonight, which is supported
by latest convection-allowing model guidance. The 00Z ABR sounding
sampled steep lapse rates, which were largely contributing to MLCAPE
of around 3000 J/kg in the absence of a more moist boundary layer.
The steep lapse rates and resultant top-heavy CAPE profile in
conjunction with the drier low-level environment are expected to
enhance cold pool development with damaging winds becoming the
predominant severe weather hazard. Localized gusts as high as 70-75
mph are possible as the convective system advances into central MN.
Additional more isolated storm development is possible along the
western flank of the MCS in eastern SD, where more sporadic large
hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
...Louisiana...
Radar data indicate a cold pool attendant to a bowing storm complex
now becoming displaced downstream from the parent updrafts, which
should lead to the continued weakening of the MCS. Farther south, a
brief uptick in thunderstorm development and associated damaging
wind threat is possible over the next hour or so near and west of
Alexandria where two outflow boundaries are expected to collide.
...Northern Rockies into Central High Plains...
Evening water vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough moving through
ID into western MT with an attending belt of stronger mid-level flow
overspreading southern MT and northwest WY, per latest objective
analysis. The glancing influence of that feature, coupled with
orographic ascent, may still yield a few storm clusters late this
evening into tonight in south-central and southeast MT and northeast
WY, where isolated severe gusts will be possible.
..Mead.. 07/07/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Overall, this week exhibits a critical fire weather pattern for
portions of the Intermountain West with hot, dry and windy
conditions followed by thunderstorms, then dry and breezy conditions
once again later in the week. An upper-level trough will move into
southwest Canada Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday, with zonal westerly
flow and a flattened ridge over the northern half to two-thirds of
the West. As the upper-level ridge flattens, the upper high
retrogrades off the southern California coast. A weak dry cold front
will push through the Northwest and into the Great Basin mid-week,
with moisture and above normal temperatures ahead of it. Moisture
will likely push east of the Colorado Rockies and be suppressed
southward to southern Arizona and New Mexico beyond Day 5/Friday as
a ridge builds across the western CONUS. Forecast uncertainty exists
late in the period regarding how an upper-level trough off the
Pacific Northwest coast will interact with the likely building
upper-level ridge over most of the West, especially the
Intermountain West Day 6/Saturday - Day 8/Monday.
...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely
across portions of the northern/eastern Great Basin into the Four
Corners on Day 3/Wednesday. The 10% area was expanded into southern
ID where a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may overlap pockets of dry
and receptive fuels. A 40% Critical area was maintained for low RH
and gusty conditions in the Washington Cascade Gaps into the
Columbia Basin, while a more expansive 40% Critical was introduced
across much of the Great Basin into northern AZ. Dry and breezy
conditions continue on Day 4/Thursday across the southern Great
Basin into the Four Corners. Following several days of mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms, these conditions could promote the emergence of any
holdover lightning ignitions.
...Day 5-6/Friday-Saturday...
An upper-level ridge will build across the western-central CONUS
later this week, amplifying through the weekend. Meanwhile, upper
troughing should persist over the Pacific Northwest, further
enhancing southwesterly flow aloft and dry downslope flow over the
northern Sierra Nevada into the southern Cascades. 40% Critical
probabilities were introduced on both days where guidance depicts
dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels. The spatial extent of drawn
probabilities may be adjusted in future outlooks as extended
guidance becomes better resolved.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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