Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
High pressure and a dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential
across most of the CONUS on Monday. The only exceptions will be
across South Florida and parts of the Southwest into West Texas.
Across South Florida, mid 60s dewpoints are forecast to persist on
Monday which may allow for sufficient instability for scattered
storm development. Weak instability should limit any severe weather
threat with this activity. 

Additional isolated storms are possible across parts of the
Southwest into portions of West Texas as moisture return may lead to
some weak instability. No severe storms are expected from this
activity.

..Bentley.. 04/18/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Initially dry conditions will keep the severe weather threat low on
D4/Tuesday. As a mid-level trough traverses the Rockies on Monday,
lee troughing will strengthen on D5/Wednesday. This will bring
substantial moisture return across the Plains. Given the early stage
moisture return, more than an isolated severe weather threat appears
unlikely on D5. 

A more substantial severe weather threat is anticipated on Day
6/Thursday. The evolution of the mid-level trough still remains
unclear, but an overall pattern featuring broad troughing across the
southern/central Plains, moderate to strong instability, and a sharp
dryline, could support at least isolated supercells Thursday
afternoon/evening. Have added a 15% area from western/central
Oklahoma into southern/eastern Kansas where the severe weather
threat seems likely regardless of how exactly the mid-level pattern
evolves. 

The uncertainties discussed for Day 6 become greater on Day 7 and
beyond. Persistent troughing across the Plains and considerable
instability suggest that severe weather is likely on Friday (and
likely into the weekend). However, the progression of the mid-level
trough and the associated surface features need to become more clear
before a 15% area can be defined for these days.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will move towards the upper Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley as temporary upper ridging builds over the West.  In
the wake of the upper trough, a post-frontal dry airmass and
northwesterly flow will promote widespread fire weather conditions
across portions of the central and southern Plains. Enhanced
southwest winds ahead of an eastward progressing cold front will
pose an Elevated fire weather threat across parts of the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic.

...Central/southern Plains...
Within a post-frontal environment, northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph
and RH of 15-25 percent over dry fuels will pose an Elevated fire
weather threat for portions of the central and southern Plains this
afternoon. A confined region of northwesterly winds of up to 25 mph
and gusts over 30 mph are expected in central/western Nebraska.
Despite model guidance indicating daytime RH to remain above 15
percent within this region, strong winds atop recently receptive
fuels and expected 90th-95th percentile ERCs will promote Critical
fire weather concerns. 

...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...
Increasing southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled
with the lack of appreciable moisture return from the Gulf and
resultant low RH will promote an Elevated fire weather threat across
much of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At peak heating,
widespread RH of 20-30 percent will combine with southwesterly winds
of 10-15 mph atop receptive fuels. Thunderstorms are expected to
form along/ahead of the approaching cold front in the
southern/central Appalachians late afternoon into the overnight
hours. With relatively minimal precipitation (less than 0.25")
expected on eastern slopes of the Appalachians towards the Piedmont
Plateau, the potential exists for lightning ignitions. Given a
continuous environment of above normal temperatures and
exceptionally dry fuels, there is a concern for increased spread
potential of any existing and new ignitions.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Moore.. 04/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...