Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east
and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough and increasingly strong westerly flow over the
central US are forecast to quickly intensify today, moving into the
Ohio Valley by tonight. Accompanying the strengthening trough, a
surface low over OK will deepen and shift toward the mid MS valley.
Trailing the low, a strong cold front will sweep southeastward with
increasing moisture ahead of it over the far southern Plains. Ahead
of the front, isolated strong to severe storms are possible over
parts of East TX and western LA this afternoon into early Sunday
morning.

...Eastern Texas into western LA...
South of the surface low across parts of central and southeast TX,
low-level warm air advection is expected much of the day associated
with a weakening 850 mb low-level jet. Persistent southerly flow
will help transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across the
TX coastal plain into portions of central TX and far western LA.
Filtered diurnal heating should allow for some warming of the
relatively cool boundary layer. This warming, along with the
increase in low-level moisture, should support at least weak
destabilization by peak heating as cold mid-level temperatures from
the approaching trough move overhead. While overall forcing and flow
aloft should be modest south of the primary upper trough, isolated
thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime through
the afternoon and into the evening/overnight hours.

Veering hodographs and a subtle increase in deep-layer shear should
favor some storm organization with convection across southeast TX
into far western LA. Wind fields will be weak, but slightly enlarged
low-level hodographs (ESRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a cellular storm mode
could favor transient supercell structures along with occasionally
organized multicells. A brief tornado and marginally severe hail are
possible with the stronger updrafts. While any sustained severe risk
is likely to be contingent upon sufficient warming for surface-base
buoyancy, at least a low-end risk is possible from late afternoon
through much of the overnight hours ahead of the cold front.

As the cold front moves south from the Red River into central TX
this afternoon and into the evening, additional storms are likely to
form along and behind it as the front encounters the northern
fringes of the moisture plume. Despite sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE
500-1000 J/kg), the undercutting nature of the surging front should
tend to limit storm intensity. Still, sufficient deep-layer shear
(35-45 kt) could support a few stronger clusters as a broken line
develops and surges south. Isolated hail, and perhaps some strong
gusts are possible as the front is expected to quickly move toward
the coast and reach the Gulf early Sunday morning.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/29/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as a second
mid-level trough to the west impinges on the Plains states tomorrow
(Saturday). This upper-air pattern will support surface high
pressure overspreading much of the CONUS, from the northern Rockies
to the Atlantic Coastline. However, on the southern periphery of
surface high pressure, a cold front will approach the Gulf Coast and
FL Peninsula through the first half of the period. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F will support enough
buoyancy for scattered thunderstorm development, given sufficient
lift due to low-level convergence along the cold front. A couple of
lightning flashes are possible over the central Rockies as a pocked
of cooler air aloft overspreads the region in tandem with the
passing mid-level trough. However, any scant buoyancy that develops
may only be adequate enough for lightning flashes that are too
sparse for the inclusion of thunder probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast Monday into
early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the central U.S. while rapidly
tracking eastward, encouraging surface high pressure to overspread
most of the CONUS on Day 3/Monday. As such, thunderstorm development
will be limited over most locales given static stability. However,
through the period, the eastward progression of the aforementioned
mid-level trough will encourage surface low development along the
eastern Gulf Coast. Low-level warm air advection ahead of the
developing low will allow low-level moisture to move inland by up to
a couple hundred miles, fostering enough buoyancy for scattered
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may first develop along the TX/LA
coastlines during the day, with thunderstorms then developing over
southern MS to the northern FL Peninsula late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning. However, this buoyancy, which may be largely
elevated in nature, appears too scant to support organized severe
potential, with no severe probabilities introduced at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025