URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 677
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Far Southeast Alabama
  Florida Panhandle and Big Bend
  Far Southwest Georgia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely

SUMMARY...Convective bands associated with Hurricane Isaias will
continue to move north and overspread the Watch area from south to
north.  Embedded cells within the bands will pose a risk for
tornadoes with the stronger mesocyclones as a moist maritime
tropical airmass moves inland through the afternoon and early
evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Crestview
FL to 30 miles north northeast of Cross City FL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 14030.

...Smith

STATUS FOR WATCH 0677 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
steadily increase this afternoon and continue tonight, especially
across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.

...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern
Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. The latest
discussion indicates that Isaias has reached major hurricane status
as it moves north-northeastward toward the western Florida
Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

As Isaias approaches the coast, rainbands on its eastern periphery
will spread northward toward the Big Bend of the Florida Panhandle,
far southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon
into tonight. Throughout the day, a more unstable airmass over the
eastern Gulf will advance northward, resulting in destabilization
over the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle. The current VAD
profile at KTLH is already supportive of tornado potential (i.e.,
0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2), and low-level winds and SRH will strengthen
significantly this afternoon and evening. Once the mid 70s F
dewpoints come onshore, persistent, deeper updrafts will be possible
with the propensity to rotate and have the potential to produce
tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.

..Jirak/Smith.. 10/09/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA  INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for a few tornadoes will exist from the Florida Panhandle
into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday into Saturday
evening.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate consolidation of a number of short wave
perturbations into highly amplified larger-scale mid/upper troughing
across much of the Pacific Coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday
night.  It appears that this will include digging troughing within
the initially stronger branch of mid-latitude westerlies along the
northern U.S. Pacific coast, and consolidating troughing in a
separate weaker branch across the southern mid- to subtropical
latitude eastern Pacific into southern California/northern Baja. 
Near the leading edge of this latter regime, the remnants of
Tropical Storm Rachel may accelerate inland into the southern
California Sonoran Desert vicinity by 12Z Sunday.

Downstream flow is forecast to remain split, with broad mid/upper
ridging forecast to generally continue to build within the stronger
northern branch, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. 
Within the weaker southern branch, a developing mid-level low,
including remnants of Isaias, and associated upper troughing are
forecast to begin gradually turning northward and northeastward,
around the northwestern periphery of westward building mid/upper
ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic through the northern
Caribbean and southeastern Gulf Basin.

...Southeast...
As the sheared remnants of Isaias progress further inland, the
low-level circulation center is expected to eventually undergo a
period of more rapid weakening.  After curving north-northwestward
into/through a drier/more stable environment across central Alabama,
it is forecast to slowly accelerate northward/northeastward toward
the Cumberland Plateau Saturday night.  However, there remains
rather sizable spread within/among the various model output
concerning this and related developments, which will considerably
impact any continuing risk for tornadoes. 

In general, it appears that a broad lingering belt of moderate
southerly low-level flow (perhaps with embedded stronger corridors)
will support a moistening sector to the east/southeast of the
center, on the modifying southwestern flank of a surface ridge
slowly shifting across and offshore of middle/northern Atlantic
coastal areas.  This likely will include the return seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content, with dew points increasing into the
70s F, which may support CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg to the
east of the remnant mid-level warm core.  

As the upstream mid/upper troughing slowly pivots toward this
environment, intensifying thunderstorm development appears probable
through the afternoon into evening, mainly across Georgia and
northern Florida into parts of the Carolinas.  As this occurs,
lingering enlarged clockwise curved low-level hodographs and 
developing near-surface buoyancy may become conducive to widely
scattered low-topped supercells with potential to produce tornadoes.
 
...Lower Colorado Valley vicinity...
Strengthening wind fields associated with the approaching tropical
system, coupled with the potential for an influx of high
boundary-layer moisture content off the Gulf of California, probably
supports at least a conditional risk for a tornado or two late
Saturday night or early Sunday, if conditions come together
favorably.  At this point, given model spread, this potential still
seems rather low.

..Kerr.. 10/09/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091700Z - 101200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING...

...17Z Update...
Deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue to increase across the
Northwest and northern Rockies as an upper-level trough amplifies
across the region, ushering in broad fire weather concerns across
the northern Great Basin into portions of the Northern Rockies and
adjacent high plains. A shallow temperature inversion is rapidly
eroding across southwest MT as a well-mixed boundary layer
facilitated by clear skies and a dry air mass develops through the
afternoon. Localized wind gusts of 30 mph have been observed with an
expanding and intensifying west-southwest wind field evolving
through the afternoon. Sustained wind magnitudes of 15-20 mph with
higher gusts, combined with RH as low as 10% over dry fuels (ERC
values in the 80-90th percentile range) will promote a fire weather
threat across southwestern MT where Elevated highlights have been
extended.

..Williams.. 10/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Pacific
Northwest today as a deepening surface low progresses eastward
across southern Canada and an attendant cold front advances
southeastward across the Northwest and Northern Rockies. This will
occur in the wake of persistent upper-level ridging and prolonged
dry, warm conditions that have significantly cured fuels across
portions of the region. This combination of meteorological
conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs forecast to commonly exceed the
80th percentile) will create impactful fire weather conditions
across parts of the northern/western CONUS today.

...Much of Wyoming, central Montana, southwestern South Dakota, and
far northwest Nebraska...
A combination of the deepening surface low across southern Canada,
the approaching surface cold front, and lee troughing across the
High Plains will foster a tightening surface pressure gradient
across portions of the northern Plains today. The resultant enhanced
west-southwesterly flow (with widespread sustained winds of 15-25
mph) will drive well above-normal temperatures and promote
seasonally deep boundary-layer mixing that will support RH
reductions to 10-20%. With ERCs commonly at or above the 80th
percentile, this will support a broad region of elevated fire
weather concerns from northern/central Montana southward into much
of Wyoming, southwestern South Dakota, and portions of the Nebraska
Panhandle. Furthermore, critical fire weather concerns are forecast
to develop across portions of northeastern Wyoming, where the most
favorable overlap of 20+ mph winds and RH around 15% is expected.

While stronger sustained winds (20-25 mph) are also forecast in the
lee of the Northern Rockies across portions of central Montana, the
passage of the cold front around 00 UTC (6 PM MDT) is expected to
bring increasing moisture, a shift to weakening northwesterly winds,
and chances for precipitation.

...Southeast Oregon, Northeast California, and the far western Great
Basin...
West-southwesterly flow will similarly support warm temperatures and
seasonally deep mixing from southeastern Oregon into northeastern
California, northern Nevada, and southwestern Idaho. A tightening
surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front will
allow surface winds to strengthen to 15-20 mph amid minimum RH
values of 15-20%. These meteorological conditions will overlap with
receptive fuels to support an elevated fire weather threat. Winds
will then shift to north-northwesterly and gradually weaken as the
cold front passes through the region after 00 UTC (5 PM PDT).

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...