WW 693 TORNADO AZ NM 221710Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 693
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM MST Thu Oct 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and Eastern Arizona
Western New Mexico
* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1010 AM until
800 PM MST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...As an upper trough approaches the region, environment will
remain favorable for locally intense storms and supercells, capable
of all severe hazards including large hail and possible tornadoes,
especially for eastern Arizona and far western New Mexico.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 85 miles southwest of Silver City NM to
105 miles north northwest of Gallup NM. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 692...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23025.
...Guyer
WW 692 SEVERE TSTM AZ 221055Z - 221800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 692
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 AM MST Thu Oct 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Arizona
* Effective this Thursday morning from 355 AM until 1100 AM MST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Supercells should continue to develop and pose a threat
for mainly large hail generally around 1.0-1.75 inches in diameter
this morning as they move east-northeastward. Isolated 2+ inch
hailstones may occur with the most intense cores. Occasional
severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two also appear
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north
northwest of Gila Bend AZ to 35 miles east northeast of Safford AZ.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 691...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
22035.
...Gleason
WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0693 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 2398 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEVADA...SOUTHWEST UTAH AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Nevada...southwest Utah and extreme
northwest Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 221747Z - 221915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Occasional strong-severe gusts, isolated large hail and an
isolated tornado will all be possible. However, the threat is
expected to remain relatively sparse and on the lower margins for a
broad area, so a watch is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...A midlevel trough over southern/central CA is beginning
to eject east-northeastward toward the southern Great Basin, with
downstream forcing for ascent likewise overspreading eastern NV,
western UT and extreme northwest AZ. Surface heating in cloud
breaks is contributing to destabilization and storm coverage is
expected to increase in broken bands through the afternoon. Long,
straight hodographs will favor a mix of splitting cells and line
segments capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe
gusts. The magnitude of the threat will be limited somewhat by
relatively shallow buoyancy profiles. The environment is a bit more
favorable for supercells across southwest UT and vicinity where
buoyancy is larger with mid-upper 50s dewpoints and the storm mode
will be semi-discrete.
..Thompson/Guyer.. 10/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...
LAT...LON 38521352 37771251 37091245 36451284 36021428 36161494
36631536 37591530 38521523 39501533 40961565 41981562
41981498 39861446 38521352
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FOUR CORNERS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest,
with the most intense cells expected across parts of Arizona and
western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
...Arizona/Four Corners and Great Basin...
Another active and relatively rare setup from a climatological
perspective continues regionally, and will tend to shift
east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. This will be
as the upper low in vicinity of the SoCal coast continues to become
more northeastward progressive today, reaching portions of the Great
Basin and lower Colorado River Valley by this evening.
Scenario will continue to favor supercells, particularly for eastern
Arizona and western New Mexico from a longer-duration and tornado
perspective, as low-level winds otherwise will tend to take on more
of a westerly component over time farther west across Arizona as the
upper trough approaches. Severe probabilities have been
increased/expanded northward toward the Four Corners/Colorado
Plateau vicinity, where an atypically rare setup of
deep-layer/low-level shear coincident with modest but adequate
severe-conducive degree of destabilization is expected.
As compared to yesterday, a greater coverage of storms will likely
exist by later today/afternoon, which may mean a less-discrete
nature of the supercells, but with more numerous
severe-caliber/supercell storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds and a tornado risk. Recent Tucson WSR-88D VWP data still
reflects strong low-level shear/SRH and (splitting)
supercell-favorable deep-layer wind profiles, with the probability
that tornado potential will probably maximize across eastern
Arizona/far western New Mexico this afternoon into evening,
especially where topography influences a low-level easterly wind
component. Large hail will be associated with both left-moving and
right-moving supercells.
Farther north-northwest into the Great Basin, both low-level
moisture and related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so,
multiple corridors of isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado
potential will exist this afternoon. This will be as semi-low-topped
convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating upper
trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of the
troposphere.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/22/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New
Mexico on Friday.
...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend across much of the
western CONUS early Friday morning. Several shortwave troughs will
be embedded within the larger scale troughing, including one moving
northeastward across the eastern Great Basin towards western WY, one
moving through the base of the parent trough across southern CA and
another dropping quickly southward across the Sierra toward central
and southern CA. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue
northeastward through western WY and eastern MT before interacting
with an intensifying shortwave trough moving across the Canadian
Prairies. Evolution and interaction between the southernmost
shortwaves is expected to yield a closed cyclone centered over the
Lower CO Valley by early Saturday morning.
This overall evolution will foster a persistence of the deep
southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest across the central
Rockies into the northern Plains. The overall troughing will have a
slight positive tilt, but the mean eastward shift will foster modest
height falls during the afternoon and evening across the Southwest.
These height falls, and associated southerly low-level flow, will
support scattered to numerous thunderstorms across NM, including the
potential for some strong to severe storms. Additional thunderstorms
appear likely near the embedded cold core as it moves across the
northern Intermountain West, and within a band of warm-air advection
farther east across the Upper MS Valley.
...New Mexico...
As mentioned in the synopsis, deep southwesterly flow is forecast to
persist across the NM throughout the period. At the same time, a
seasonably moist airmass will advect northward in the region.
Uncertainty exists regarding potential heating and mixing of this
moistening airmass, with some guidance notably more cloudy and less
mixed. Current expectation is for the greatest potential for heating
and mixing to remain over southern portions of the state, with more
clouds and less heating with northern extent.
Even with this limited heating, moist low to mid-levels and cool
mid-level temperatures will still support modest buoyancy across
northern/central NM, beginning early Friday morning. Multiple rounds
of thunderstorms are possible across this region, with the
combination of modest buoyancy and strong deep-layer vertical shear
supportive of organized updrafts. Hail will be the primary risk,
with isolated strong gusts possible as well. Given the potential for
supercells and moist low-levels, a low-probability tornado risk
exists as well.
Stronger heating and warmer temperatures appear more likely farther
south, which will combine with greater low-level moisture support
greater overall buoyancy and a relatively higher chance for
organized updrafts capable of large hail and strong gusts. Some
questions exist on how much low-level moisture will be in place
(i.e. low 50s dewpoints vs. upper 50s/low 60s), but the higher
dewpoint solutions suggest overall profiles supportive of very large
hail (i.e. greater than 2"+) and tornadoes.
..Mosier.. 10/22/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 221700Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes necessary.
Fuels will remain dry amid above normal temperatures and decreasing
RHs over much of the northern High Plains today.
..Stearns.. 10/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broader fire weather concerns remain low across CONUS today. An
upper low will push into the Great Basin today while an associated
mid-level jet approaches the Four Corners region. Cloud cover,
cooler temperatures and precipitation will impact much of the
Intermountain West reducing fire weather concerns across this
region. Surface high pressure entrenched over the eastern CONUS
complimented by upper ridging over the Plains will contribute to
light winds (10 mph or less) over the Deep South where dry and
receptive fuels persist.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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