Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN FLORIDA
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across
portions of northern Florida into Georgia and parts of the
Carolinas.

...20z Update...
MRMS VIL has depicted a weakening trend in convection across the FL
Panhandle and northern FL over the past 1-2 hours as convection
migrates east into a more deeply mixed/drier air mass. A downstream
18 UTC sounding from JAX sampled diminished mid-level lapse rates
and increased inhibition as well, casting doubt on the potential for
re-intensification across north FL through the afternoon. For this
reason, 15% wind and 5% tornado risk probabilities were removed,
though recent high-res guidance suggests that a strong storm or two
will remain possible as the surface cold front continues to push
southeast through early evening. Further northeast into GA and the
Carolinas, gradual clearing has allowed temperatures to warm into
the low to mid 70s amid low/mid 60s dewpoints. This is supporting
modest MLCAPE values (500 J/kg or less) within an otherwise strongly
sheared environment. Given these trends, opted to maintain low-end
wind probabilities to account for isolated strong convection capable
of damaging winds. 

Across southern/central TX, elevated convection has shown a similar
weakening trend over the past few hours. While transient stronger
updrafts will remain possible given residual MUCAPE sampled by
regional ACARS soundings, the recent convective trends coupled with
nebulous forcing for ascent and minimal updraft/UH signal in recent
CAM guidance lends enough confidence to remove 5% hail
probabilities.

..Moore.. 05/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026/

...FL Panhandle into north FL and far southern GA...
A mid-level vorticity lobe over the Mid South is forecast to rapidly
move east and reach the NC Outer Banks by mid evening.  Late morning
satellite/radar imagery shows a broken band of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front and draped west-southwest to
east-northeast.  A moist and fully modified boundary layer extends
from the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle and Big Bend with
notably drier air over interior north FL.  Convergence along the
front is forecast to weaken late today into tonight as a weak low
over the Carolinas shifts offshore.  However, the prefrontal airmass
will remain moist, moderately unstable, and strongly sheared (50+ kt
effective shear) across the FL Panhandle vicinity through the mid
afternoon.  Embedded cells within the bands will potentially be
capable of wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado before this
activity gradually weakens as it moves into a less-buoyant regime
farther east of north FL.  

...Carolinas... 
Some thinning of cloud cover and modest heating ahead of the cold
front will yield weak buoyancy prior to the front clearing the coast
later today.  Weak low-level lapse rates will tend to limit the
overall severe risk (i.e., localized wind damage potential). 
However, will maintain low wind probabilities this outlook update
due to the possibility for a couple of deeper updrafts to organize
within a region with strong deep-layer wind fields.

...Edwards Plateau into the Lower Rio Grande Valley...
Elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day with a few
stronger updrafts intermittently developing over the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau.  Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE may
support the potential for an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail.  Farther south and displaced away from the higher terrain,
very low thunderstorm coverage is expected despite a modifying and
more moist airmass.  Have trimmed hail probabilities over this
region due to the lack of storm coverage in the latest model
guidance.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across parts of the southern/central Plains, and from east Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the
central/eastern CONUS and Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough is
forecast to develop southeastward from the northern Rockies/High
Plains towards the central High Plains by Saturday evening. Weak lee
cyclogenesis should occur over the southern/central High Plains,
with modest low-level moisture forecast to return northward across
north TX into OK to the east of a surface dryline. High-based
convection should develop Saturday afternoon across eastern CO into
western KS, with locally gusty winds possible.

A somewhat greater severe wind and hail risk should exist late
Saturday afternoon and evening across the eastern TX Panhandle,
southwest KS, and into OK where weak to locally moderate instability
should be in place. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty how
far north greater low-level moisture and related instability will
advance, but any cells that can form could pose an isolated threat
for large hail and damaging winds given sufficient deep-layer shear
for modest updraft organization. Have expanded the Marginal Risk a
bit in OK and the eastern TX Panhandle to account for potential
surface-based development along the dryline, and for a possible
cluster/MCS Saturday evening.

...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday
morning across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast. This activity
may tend to remain elevated to the north of a surface front through
Saturday morning. But, increasing potential for surface-based
thunderstorms should exist as daytime heating along/south of the
front occurs, and as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
eastward from east TX into the northern Gulf and vicinity. One or
more clusters may eventually evolve and pose some risk for damaging
winds as they spread east-southeastward across parts of the lower MS
Valley/Southeast through the afternoon and early evening. Isolated
severe hail may also occur with somewhat more discrete convection
across portions of east TX into LA, where steeper mid-level lapse
rates and greater instability are forecast to exist.

..Gleason.. 05/07/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

Upper troughing will extend along the eastern U.S. and persist
through early next week as an upper-level low over eastern Canada
remains anchored. This pattern will encourage unsettled weather and
repeated chances for precipitation across portions of the Southeast
to the Mid-Atlantic. Given a widespread transition to green-up and
expected appreciable moisture return, broader fire weather concerns
may temporarily be dampened for much of the eastern U.S. through the
duration of the forecast period.

An upper ridge will prevail across the western U.S., potentially
shifting into the central U.S. by mid-week. The overall pattern may
result in a fuel drying/curing event, given above normal
temperatures and dry conditions to persist for much of the
Intermountain West. However, timely green-up phase of fuels and
lighter winds should keep broader concerns low. Localized fire
weather concerns may emerge in terrain-favored areas where stronger
winds overlap dry fuels. 

Between western U.S. ridging and troughing to the east, broad
northwesterly flow over the High Plains and Upper Midwest is
expected to promote sporadic dry and windy conditions atop drying
fuels. A series of shortwaves are forecast to move along the eastern
periphery of the upper ridge on Day 3/Saturday and Day 5/Monday,
providing scattered chances of precipitation and gusty winds.
Conversely, widespread appreciable precipitation is unlikely.
Uncertainty in medium-range guidance precludes critical
probabilities at this time; however, fire weather potential should
become more evident in future outlooks.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...