WW 292 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 090445Z - 090900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kansas
Western Missouri
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1145 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...An intense bowing cluster will likely continue to pose a
threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds through the
early morning hours as it moves quickly eastward across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri before eventually weakening. Peak gusts
may reach up to 65-75 mph, and line-embedded circulations could also
produce a tornado or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast
of Kansas City MO to 105 miles south southwest of Knob Noster MO.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 290...WW 291...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27040.
...Gleason
WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0292 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0291 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ITR
TO 25 NNE GLD TO 20 SE IML TO 40 WNW LBF TO 50 ENE CDR.
..LYONS..06/09/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC039-065-137-153-179-181-193-090540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR GRAHAM NORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS
NEC063-085-087-111-145-090540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK
LINCOLN RED WILLOW
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0290 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 290
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ICT TO
35 W EMP TO 30 SSE MHK TO 35 S BIE.
..LYONS..06/09/26
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-015-017-019-031-035-045-049-059-073-085-087-111-133-
139-149-173-177-191-197-205-207-090540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY
COWLEY DOUGLAS ELK
FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON
JEFFERSON LYON NEOSHO
OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE SEDGWICK
SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE
WILSON WOODSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1044 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292... FOR CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Areas affected...Central into southwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 292...
Valid 090735Z - 090830Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 292
continues.
SUMMARY...Occasional strong wind gusts may still produce damage, but
the threat will become more isolated with time. No additional
watches are expected this morning.
DISCUSSION...A general weakening trend has been observed in MRMS
CAPPI data with an MCS moving into central/southwest Missouri.
Slightly greater MLCAPE is still present in southwest Missouri and
the convection may tend to move in that direction, but given the 1-2
F surface cooling that has occurred in the last hour suggests MLCIN
is also increasing. The expectation is for a few strong wind gusts
will be possible, but a more organized severe threat is becoming
less likely. No downstream watches are anticipated this morning.
..Wendt.. 06/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37279453 37649457 37919462 38089405 38389373 38859367
38949341 38889272 38469247 37579301 37339342 37219413
37209439 37279453
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 1043 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 090655Z - 090900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/marginally severe winds may
occur with elevated storms. A watch is not anticipated given lack of
greater storm coverage and marginal intensities.
DISCUSSION...Warm advection top the outflow from a the earlier
strong MCS has promoted the development of widely scattered storms.
Steep lapse rates remain in the wake of the earlier convection and
effective shear is 45-55 kt. Isolated large hail and perhaps a
strong to marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with this
activity into the early morning hours.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38329858 38469951 38549983 38809996 39079958 39629857
39469761 39049658 38639594 38439596 38359637 38319842
38329858
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60 to 80 mph
winds with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some
potentially strong), and large to very large hail are expected to
develop in parts of the central and northern Plains from this
afternoon into tonight. Severe wind gusts and hail will also be
possible from north-central and west-central Kansas southwestward
into the Texas Panhandle.
...Central and Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western U.S.
today. Ahead of the system, mid-level heights will fall over the
central and northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be
in place over the Great Plains, with a dryline located from far
western North Dakota southward into western Nebraska. To the east of
the dryline, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower
70s F. As surface temperatures warm today, an axis of moderate
instability is expected to develop over the central Dakotas.
Thunderstorms will form near and to the east of the dryline in the
mid afternoon. Strong low-level convergence near the instability
axis will result in a relatively rapid transition to linear mode
with a large MCS expected to develop during the late afternoon and
early evening. The severe MCS will move eastward across the central
and eastern Dakotas, with the southern part of the line located in
central Nebraska.
Late afternoon RAP forecast soundings in the central Dakotas near
the instability axis have MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range with
0-6 km shear between 30 to 40 knots. Low to mid-level lapse rates
are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will be very
favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 80 mph will be
possible with supercells early, and along the more intense parts of
the line as it develops.
Concerning the tornado threat, a mid-level jet will become
juxtaposed with a low-level jet in the late afternoon across central
and northern North Dakota. Storms that can remain discrete for a few
hours after initiation will have potential to become supercells and
produce tornadoes. The strongest low-level shear is forecast in
northeastern North Dakota, where RAP forecast soundings increase 0-3
km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range by early
evening. This will be favorable for a few strong tornadoes. Further
south from central South Dakota into Nebraska, there will be
potential for supercells with tornadoes near gaps in the line. The
threat for strong tornadoes may be greatest in the early to mid
evening as the line interacts with a 45 to 55 knot low-level jet
from far southeastern South Dakota southward into eastern Nebraska.
From late evening into the early overnight period, the severe threat
associated with the severe MCS is expected to gradually downtrend as
it moves into the upper Mississippi Valley.
...North-central and Western Kansas/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...
At mid-levels today, heights will fall within southwesterly flow
over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a moist
and unstable airmass will be located over much of the region. By
afternoon, a focused zone of maximized low-level convergence is
forecast to develop. This axis will move eastward toward the western
edge of the stronger instability, with thunderstorms forming in the
mid to late afternoon. Near the axis, MLCAPE is forecast to be
around 2000 J/kg with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition,
surface temperature-dewpoint spreads will be large, which will be
favorable for severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early
evening.
...Upper Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi
and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the ridge, moderate
instability will be in place by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms
that form within this moist and unstable airmass will have potential
for isolated severe gusts, mainly as low-level lapse rates become
steep in the afternoon.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 06/09/2026
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in
excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and
damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across
portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday
afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds are possible into the central and southern Plains,
and from the lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.
...Synopsis...
An upper low along the MT-SK border Wednesday morning is forecast to
deepen while redeveloping to along the ND-MB border Wednesday night.
That intensification process will be driven by mid/upper-level jet
streaks moving through the base of broader-scale trough, in tandem
with an amplifying short-wave trough. A lead disturbance initially
over the northern High Plains Wednesday morning will accelerate
northeast into the Upper MS Valley by evening, along with the
leading edge of stronger mid/upper-level jet streak winds.
At the surface, an area of low pressure over eastern SD Wednesday
morning will develop north-northeast into southeast MB by evening,
while a trailing cold front advances through the upper MS Valley
into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing extension of the boundary
from the mid MO Valley into KS will move more slowly through the day
before stalling and then lifting north Wednesday night in response
to cyclogenesis over the central Plains. A dryline will intersect
the front over southwest KS Wednesday afternoon, with that feature
extending southwest into western TX.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes into the Central and
Southern Plains...
Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across
portions of MN and WI, aided by warm advection along a nocturnal
low-level jet. Residual convective outflow boundaries from the
early-day storms and the approaching cold front are expected to
focus the most intense thunderstorm development, which may occur by
early afternoon across northern and central parts of MN. Subsequent
south/southwestward storm development is expected by mid/late
afternoon along and ahead of the front from southern MN and western
WI through central/eastern IA, northern MO, into eastern/southern
KS, and perhaps into western OK and northwest TX.
Rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s will coincide with a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates to yield moderate to strong afternoon
instability with MLCAPE increasing to 2000-4000+ J/kg across the
warm sector. Deep-layer shear will strengthen through the afternoon
into evening with the arrival of the jet streaks, especially across
the upper MS Valley into upper Great Lakes where effective bulk
shear magnitudes of 50-60 kt are forecast.
The expected CAPE-shear combination will support numerous severe
storms that begin as supercells capable of large to very large hail
and some tornado threat, with an eventual transition to a more of a
cold-pool-driven convective system with embedded bowing structures
by evening across portions of the Upper Midwest, potentially into
Great Lakes. Damaging wind potential, including the possibility for
75+ mph wind gusts would likewise increase with that mode
transition, as would a continued tornado threat with line-embedded
meso-vortices. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes is
expected to develop with any sustained supercells across portions of
eastern MN, WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL in the proximity of a
strengthening low-level jet, which will enhance near-ground shear.
Storms are expected to be increasingly more isolated in nature with
southwestward extent along the front and dryline from eastern KS
into western OK and northwest TX. Nonetheless, the degree of
instability coupled with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear will favor
organized multicell and/or supercell structures capable of large
hail during the afternoon and evening hours.
A separate large-hail threat is expected to develop Wednesday night
into Thursday morning over the mid MO Valley within a zone of strong
warm advection and moisture flux occurring within the terminus of a
50+ kt low-level jet.
...Lower Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic Coast...
Forcing for ascent associated with a weak mid-level disturbance
moving through the region is expected to foster widely scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon amidst a moist and
moderately unstable air mass. Model soundings indicate some
enhancement of the mid-level wind field, with deep-layer shear
increasing to around 30 kt in some areas. As such, a few severe
storms appear possible with an associated risk for damaging wind
gusts and large hail.
..Mead.. 06/09/2026
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, large hail, and destructive winds appear likely from
portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
upper Great Lakes. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and
large hail are possible across the southern Plains, upper Ohio
Valley and lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
...Synopsis...
A potent short-wave trough initially over the central High Plains
Thursday morning is forecast to accelerate through the upper Great
Lakes with a trailing perturbation moving through the central Plains
into mid MS Valley Thursday night. Both disturbances will be located
on the cyclonic aside of an unseasonably strong mid-level jet with
500-mb wind speeds approaching 70-80 kt. The 00z models have slowed
the progression of the mid-level wave, as well as the associated
surface low, which is forecast to develop from northeast KS along
the synoptic front or remnant outflow from overnight storms into
southern WI by afternoon and northern lower MI or the UP by Thursday
night.
...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great
Lakes...
A very moist boundary layer will combine with steep mid-level lapse
rates to yield a moderate to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon
to the south of the composite surface boundary. A cluster of mainly
elevated thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning
across portions of the mid MO Valley, to the northeast of the
surface low. Those storms are expected to become progressively more
surface-based and intense by mid to late morning into afternoon
while rapidly moving northeast, coincident with the surface low.
Forecast sounding within the inflow environment of those storms
indicate strong low-level and deep-layer shear, supportive of
supercells and bowing segments capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, in addition to large hail and damaging winds.
Additional severe storms are expected to develop along the trailing
front from the lower MO and mid MS Valleys southwest through the
Ozarks into southern Plains. The progressive nature of the mid-level
system suggests the potential for long-tracked supercells and bowing
structures capable of tornadoes and swaths of destructive winds.
...Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic
Coast...
While large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to remain
relatively weak, model guidance indicates scattered, afternoon storm
development from the lee of the lower Great Lakes through the
central Appalachians to the vicinity of a lee trough in the
Mid-Atlantic. Vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak;
however, the presence of a moist and moderately unstable air mass
will support wet microburst activity and an associated risk for
sporadic damaging winds.
..Mead.. 06/09/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
GREAT BASIN...
...Synopsis...
A trough will remain in place across the Northwest CONUS with a
strong jet max traversing the Great Basin and Central Rockies this
afternoon. Enhanced southwesterly flow amid a persisting dry airmass
over the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies will promote
fire weather conditions across the region. Accelerating mid-level
flow, daytime instability, and increasing mid-level moisture should
support isolated high-based thunderstorms across western NM into far
southern CO.
...Southwest, eastern Great Basin and Central Rockies...
Hot, dry and windy conditions supported by strong southwesterly flow
aloft will bolster widespread fire weather conditions this
afternoon. A corridor of stronger southwesterly flow ahead of a
stalled cold front over central UT/northwest CO will encourage
sustained southwest winds of 20-25 mph (locally 30 mph) and RH at or
below 10%. These conditions atop receptive fuels will sustain
several hours of Critical fire weather conditions in southern UT,
northern AZ, and far western CO. Lee surface troughing across the
central High Plains will reinforce southwest winds of 15-20 mph and
enhance downslope drying across the Front Range, where RH values of
15-20% will align with pockets of receptive fuels. Precipitation has
fallen within the last 24 hours across isolated portions of the
central Plains, thus Elevated highlights have been trimmed around
where appreciable rainfall has alleviated fuel concerns.
...Western New Mexico and far southern Colorado...
Resultant daytime instability and increasing mid-level moisture will
support isolated thunderstorms west of the Divide. Thunderstorms
will quickly translate northeastward through the period owing to
increasing flow aloft, limiting wetting rain potential. Receptive
fuels may support lightning ignitions as a deep, dry boundary layer
will further inhibit surface rainfall, maintaining an Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm risk.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
An elongated upper trough will expand from the Pacific Northwest to
the Upper Midwest as an upper low emerges along the northern
MT/Canadian border. Amplified westerly flow aloft and surface
troughing will enhance windy conditions amid a dry airmass across
the Great Basin and central Plains, continuing fire weather concerns
into Day 2/Wednesday. At the base of the exiting upper trough, deep
northerly flow will promote dry and breezy conditions into the
Sacramento Valley where dry fine fuels exist.
...Eastern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and central High Plains...
Strong westerly surface winds in the wake of a cold front below a
pronounced 60-70 kt mid-level jet will continue fire weather
concerns to portions of the central Plains on Day 2/Wednesday.
Critical highlights have been introduced to eastern WY and far
western NE Panhandle where west winds of 25-30 mph and RH as low as
15% align with pockets of dry fuels. Weaker, but still impactful
westerly flow will support Elevated fire weather conditions in the
eastern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and Four Corners regions as
westerly 10-15 mph winds (locally 20 mph) and RH values of 10-15%
overlap dry fuels.
...Sacramento Valley...
Dry, post-frontal northerly flow funneling into the Sacramento
Valley will promote an Elevated fire weather threat to the region
and adjacent valley foothills. Sustained northerly winds of 10-15
mph (locally up to 20 mph) and RH at or below 15% are expected to
coalesce amid receptive fuels to support fire spread. Dry and breezy
conditions may persist into the overnight hours, leading to an
extended burning period and continued fire weather concerns on Day
3/Thursday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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