No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 11 20:31:01 UTC 2026.MD 0381 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Areas affected...parts of central and northeastern Kansas...south
central and southeastern Nebraska and adjacent portions of
northwestern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111856Z - 112130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered strong to severe storm
development is likely to gradually develop through 4-6 PM CDT. This
may include a couple of supercell structures with potential to
produce tornadoes, some severe hail and localized strong surface
gusts.
DISCUSSION...Low-level moistening and insolation are contributing to
boundary-layer destabilization either side of a remnant convective
outflow boundary, which is shifting north of the Interstate 70
corridor toward the central/eastern Nebraska and Kansas state border
vicinity. This appears to be occurring beneath 30-35+ kt southerly
850 mb flow, which may undergo further strengthening through late
afternoon.
Within the better instability to the south of the outflow boundary,
widely scattered thunderstorm development is already initiating
downstream of a northeastward migrating MCV currently to the
east/southeast of Dodge City, with deepening convective development
also evident along the boundary, near Manhattan. With further
insolation and weakening of inhibition, aided by weak large-scale
ascent associated with warm advection, at least widely scattered
intensifying thunderstorm development seems probable through late
afternoon.
Despite somewhat modest flow evident in forecast soundings around
the 500 mb level, sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs
appear conducive to the development of supercell structures with
potential to produce tornadoes, particularly near and just north of
the retreating outflow boundary, and perhaps in close proximity to
the the MCV. Otherwise, marginally severe hail and localized strong
downbursts may not be out of the question in stronger cells.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 39709929 40459797 40229594 39389552 38769661 37439682
37709872 38679889 39269933 39709929
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 0380 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Areas affected...portions of central Colorado into northern New
Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 111841Z - 112045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe wind or hail are possible
with the stronger storms moving off of the higher terrain.
DISCUSSION...Afternoon peak heating, the approach of an embedded
mid-level impulse, and orographic lift, are all contributing to
thunderstorm initiation and increasing coverage across portions of
southern CO into northern NM. 40+ kts of southwesterly mid-level
flow are overspreading the region, contributing to elongated
hodographs and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear (per 18Z
mesoanalysis/ABQ observed sounding). With 8+ C/km low- and mid-level
lapse rates supporting close to 1000 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE,
multicells should continue to develop through the day, accompanied
by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. The severe threat
should be isolated, with a WW not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...
LAT...LON 35230609 36090723 36670771 37480781 38520675 39210560
39570474 39620406 39300354 38760332 38030337 37120361
36340395 35560474 35230609
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are
possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon
and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper
Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving
through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico,
progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the
subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a
deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse
rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central
Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect
northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these
factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which
are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress
northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a
large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the
southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions
support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas,
with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High
Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity.
Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress
east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this
evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a
few of which could be strong.
...Southern High Plains into Central Texas...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough
lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and
modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially
discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear
around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail.
However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing
thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered
storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is
possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow
nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this
transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the
predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also
lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an
embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent
of whatever line develops.
...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This
warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid
persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level
moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region,
as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is
some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General
expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity
into north-central MO by this evening.
Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity
of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the
low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an
environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However,
some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale
forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective
initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM
guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the
afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in
this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a
tornado.
More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is
anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly
focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley
this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and
deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts
capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into
the Upper Midwest.
...Northern/Central Rockies...
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the
northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough
progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer
mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment
that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much
of the region.
...Northern/Central California Coast...
A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the
northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress
southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening.
Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated
convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest
1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves
onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective
downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/11/2026
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are
possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon
and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper
Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving
through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico,
progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the
subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a
deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse
rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central
Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect
northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these
factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which
are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress
northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a
large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the
southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions
support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas,
with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High
Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity.
Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress
east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this
evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a
few of which could be strong.
...Southern High Plains into Central Texas...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough
lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and
modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially
discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear
around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail.
However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing
thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered
storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is
possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow
nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this
transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the
predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also
lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an
embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent
of whatever line develops.
...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This
warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid
persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level
moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region,
as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is
some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General
expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity
into north-central MO by this evening.
Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity
of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the
low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an
environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However,
some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale
forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective
initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM
guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the
afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in
this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a
tornado.
More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is
anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly
focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley
this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and
deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts
capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into
the Upper Midwest.
...Northern/Central Rockies...
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the
northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough
progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer
mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment
that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much
of the region.
...Northern/Central California Coast...
A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the
northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress
southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening.
Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated
convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest
1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves
onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective
downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/11/2026
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