Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
evening in parts of the central Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi
Valley, southern High Plains and southern Arizona.

...Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a broad area of cyclonic flow
over the north-central U.S., with an embedded shortwave trough in
the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an ill-defined front is
located from far southern Kansas northeastward into Missouri and
Illinois. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing on the cool side of
the boundary in northern Missouri. Along and to the south of the
front, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in
the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at St.
Louis has 0-6 km shear around 30 knots, and veering winds with
height in the lowest 1 Km above ground level. This environment will
be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening.
However, forecast soundings have poor lapse rates which will keep
any severe threat localized.

...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level flow is west-northwesterly over much of the High Plains
this evening. A small pocket of moderate instability is analyzed by
the RAP over southeastern Colorado. Thunderstorms are ongoing to the
south of the instability max over northeastern New Mexico. These
storms will move east-southeastward into the northwestern Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma Panhandle this evening. MLCAPE around
1000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, along with
steep low to mid-level lapse rates could be enough for isolated
severe gusts and hail.

...Southern Arizona...
The latest RAP analysis shows moderate instability over most of
southern Arizona, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg
range. Thunderstorms are developing in the higher terrain of eastern
Arizona, and these storms will move west-southwestward across
southern Arizona this evening. RAP forecast sounding at Tuscon early
this evening have 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range,
along with surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceeding 30 degrees
F. This will contribute to a potential for isolated severe gusts in
southern Arizona over the next few hours...see MCD 1838.

..Broyles.. 08/06/2026