No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 19 08:19:02 UTC 2026.MD 1194 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Areas affected...North-central Texas...Far Southern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190801Z - 191030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts
will likely continue across north-central Texas over the next few
hours, and could impact far southern Oklahoma as well. The threat is
expected to remain too marginal for watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary front
located from west-central Texas northeastward into southeast
Oklahoma. Nearly surface-based thunderstorms are developing close to
the boundary to the south-southwest of Wichita Falls. The storms are
located just to the north of a pocket of strong instability, where
surface dewpoints are in the upper 70s F and the RAP has MLCAPE in
the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings
over north-central Texas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km.
This thermodynamic environment will be favorable for an isolated
large hail and a wind-damage threat. Although deep-layer shear is
weak over much of north-central Texas, RAP forecast soundings a bit
further east have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range. As the
storms move eastward into a slightly more favorable environment, the
severe threat is expected to be maintained or could increase some.
However, large-scale ascent is limited over central and north Texas,
which may keep any severe threat localized.
..Broyles/Gleason.. 06/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 34199910 34519878 34619828 34629752 34529707 34089671
33129683 32489703 32219734 32019791 32109886 32289915
32589937 33249936 34199910
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the
Upper Midwest and parts of the central Plains. Additional strong
thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts from north
Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of the Gulf Coast states
and into the coastal Carolinas.
...MN into WI...
An upper low will be situated over northern Manitoba, with a broad
fetch of moderate northwest flow aloft across the northern Rockies
and Plains. A progressive embedded wave is forecast to move across
the Dakotas and toward the upper MS Valley through 00Z, with weak
low pressure into northern MN. Strong surface heating along with 50s
F dewpoints and convergence near a cold front will lead to scattered
storms across much of MN and northern WI. Forecast soundings show
cold profiles aloft over northern areas, though shear will be
weaker. Shear will be stronger over southern MN, but instability
will not be as favorable. Either way, cells capable of hail appear
most likely given the cool profiles aloft. A few cells may become
severe with hail over 1.00".
...From eastern TX into the Southeast...
Early day rain and storms may be ongoing over northern TX into OK,
with possible outflow into central TX. A potential midlevel wave
associated with the OK/TX storms may provide a focus for additional
development as it proceeds east/southeast, interacting with a very
moist air mass with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints. Shear will be
weak, but ample PWAT and CAPE may result in locally damaging winds.
Farther east into the Carolinas, a leading wave will move across
that area early in the day as well. Shear profiles may be enhanced
ahead of this feature, with a low probability of a brief tornado and
damaging gusts before the system moves offshore.
Strong instability will also develop over the FL Peninsula, with
numerous storms expected over central and eastern portions. Midlevel
lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/km, PWAT over 2.00" and daytime heating
will lead to robust storms capable of locally damaging downbursts.
...Central Plains...
Beneath modest northwest flow aloft, low pressure will develop over
southeast CO, with southeasterly surface winds across the central
Plains. This will aid moisture advection with 50s to perhaps near 60
F dewpoints across KS, eastern CO and into NE. It is questionable if
any storms develop during the day as the boundary layer may be cool,
but the influence of the upper trough over the northern Plains may
yield a few elevated storms. Then overnight, additional warm
advection above the surface may support isolated development. Hail
would be the primary risk.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 06/19/2026
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central
Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large
to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are
possible.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will de-amplify as it emerges from the Rockies to
the central Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, mid-level flow will
strengthen across the Rockies with strong lee cyclogenesis across
eastern Colorado. A frontal zone will extend eastward from the
surface low somewhere near southern Nebraska with a dryline
extending southward into the southern Plains.
...Central Plains...
Low-level flow will strengthen across the Plains during the day
Saturday as the lee cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado. This
will result in northward moisture transport and destabilization
across Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. By
mid-afternoon, expect storms to develop within the upslope flow
regime across eastern Wyoming, southwest South Dakota, and the
Nebraska Panhandle. Forecast soundings show cool temperatures aloft,
steep lapse rates, and strong shear which will support supercells
capable of large to very large hail in this area.
By later in the afternoon, expect storm development along the
uncapped dryline across eastern Colorado and western Kansas, and
along the frontal zone in central/southern Nebraska. Moderate
mid-level flow across the warm sector within this zone will support
a supercell storm mode. These initial supercells will pose a threat
for large to very large hail. In addition, some tornado threat will
exist with this activity, particularly along the front and as the
low-level jet strengthens during the evening. Expect these
supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs during the evening and
track southeastward into central and eastern Kansas, with an
increasing wind threat (with some 75+ mph gust potential), and
perhaps a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large
hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.
...Synopsis...
A mostly zonal pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday with
multiple embedded shortwave troughs. The primary surface low is
forecast to remain near the Texas Panhandle during the day Sunday,
with a stationary front extending northeastward through southern
Kansas, central Missouri, and into Illinois. An additional, perhaps
convectively enhanced, surface low may be present across northern
Missouri and Illinois during the afternoon/evening.
...Central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across
portions of Kansas/western Missouri near the nose of the low-level
jet. As this moves east through the day, areas southwest of this
cluster, and perhaps immediately in its wake, are expected to
destabilize substantially. This will represent a zone where storms
are expected to develop along the front amid moderate instability
and shear, most likely from northeast Oklahoma to near St. Louis.
These storms would pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind
gusts.
A lower probability, but higher potential impact scenario could
develop across parts of eastern Missouri into central/southern
Illinois Sunday afternoon if a better defined, surface low develops
along the front and deepens through the day. This is most notably
shown by the NAM, but is also shown to a lesser extent by the ECMWF.
This could result in a localized corridor of greater tornado threat
on Sunday due to increased low-level shear. However, this scenario
will be conditional on both the development of this surface low and
the location of the morning MCS. Therefore, greater probabilities
have not been added, but this potential scenario will continue to be
monitored.
...Central High Plains...
Scattered storms are likely to develop in the post-frontal airmass
across western Kansas, eastern Colorado, and southwest Nebraska on
Sunday afternoon/evening, triggered by a shortwave trough
overspreading the region. Strengthening mid-level flow (near 50
knots based on much of the 00Z guidance) atop moderate instability
will support supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind
gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
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