Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the
central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across
southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A relatively weak upper trough will lift northward through the
central/northern Plains. To the south of this feature, mid-level
heights will modestly rise during the day. Weak surface lows are
expected within the northern Plains and Kansas. Rich moisture will
be present as far north as the Mid-Missouri Valley.

...Kansas/Missouri...
Convection is likely to be ongoing in parts of the Mid-Missouri
Valley during the morning. This activity is likely to leave an
outflow boundary within Missouri. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s F will promote strong to extreme MLCAPE values (3500-5000 J/kg).
Despite the trough generally lifting northward, a band of 30-40 kt
of mid-level flow will remain across the region. Storm development
along the surface trough/dryline is uncertain given the rising
mid-level heights. However, it is possible that a storm or two could
form along this boundary or where it intersects outflow from the
early day activity. Deep-layer shear would be sufficient for
supercell structures capable of large hail, severe winds, and
perhaps a tornado given the locally enhanced SRH along the outflow
boundary. The potential for very-large hail is less clear given weak
upper-level flow.

Model guidance also suggests a subtle shortwave, coupled with weak
low-level lift, could initiate convection in the vicinity of
northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. With the very moist airmass
present, nocturnal cooling would be rather gradual. Should a strong
enough cold pool develop, this activity could develop
south/southeast along the outflow boundary where a reservoir of
strong buoyancy would exist. Damaging winds would be the main threat
with this potential MCS. With the timing of this development
expected to be after 03Z, it is not clear how intense storms will
be. Should confidence increase in either scenario, a categorical
Slight would be warranted.

...Oklahoma/Texas...
Strong heating to the west of a dryline will promote at least
isolated storms during the afternoon. Higher confidence in greater
storm coverage exists in Southwest Texas given the moist upslope
flow into the Davis Mountains. Coverage into Rolling Plains and
Oklahoma is less certain as mid-level heights will be slowly rising
during the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place
(2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer shear will be weak, however.
Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard, though isolated large
hail is possible in the areas of larger buoyancy.

...Nebraska into the Dakotas...
Forcing for ascent from the weak, negatively tilted upper trough
will be greater here than areas to the south. That said, shear will
not be overly strong. Daytime heating will support widely scattered
to scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps
some hail.

..Wendt/Moore.. 05/31/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from the
parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley and northern Ozarks
southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
Mid-level heights will rise on Monday across the central U.S. as
southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place over the Rockies and
High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in far southwest
Kansas, with upslope easterly flow in place over much of the central
Plains. An axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to
setup from central Kansas west-northwestward into northeastern
Colorado, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation will
take place in the higher terrain of east-central Colorado.
Additional storms are expected to develop further east across the
central High Plains along and near the instability axis. 

Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE in
the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. In
addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km.
This environment will support supercells with large hail and severe
wind gusts. The potential for severe wind gusts should increase
during the evening as a cluster of cells move east-northeastward
across the central High Plains.

Further east and northeast into parts of eastern Kansas, eastern
Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, the presence of the mid-level
ridge will keep convective coverage more isolated. Beneath the
ridge, surface dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 60s F north
to the lower 70s F south, which will result in an axis of moderate
to strong instability by afternoon. If storms can initiate and
persist in spite of the weak forcing, then a severe threat would be
expected. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats.

...Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi
Valley/Southeast...
A large-scale mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Monday across much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be located from the lower Missouri Valley southeastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Surface dewpoints
will be in the upper 60s F to lower 70s F. This will contribute to
an axis of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Some model
forecasts move a shortwave trough, and an associated morning
convective system southward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Other
solutions keep convective coverage more isolated. This points to
spatial uncertainty concerning any severe threat. If the more
aggressive solutions pan out, then the wind-damage and hail threat
could be greatest from parts of western Tennessee southward into the
central Gulf Coast states. An isolated wind-damage and hail threat
may also extend eastward into northern Georgia and South Carolina,
along an east-to-west axis of instability.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026