WW 701 TORNADO KS OK TX 021925Z - 030400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
125 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Southern Kansas
Western and Central Oklahoma
Northwest Texas
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until
1000 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms will develop and intensify this
afternoon and evening. Large hail will be the primary threat
initially with an increasing severe wind and tornado threat late
this afternoon and this evening. Wind gusts to 75 mph and a strong
tornado are possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Hutchinson KS to 45
miles south southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.
...Bentley/Hart
WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0701 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 2430 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...AND WESTERN NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Areas affected...western into central OK...south-central KS...and
western north TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 021855Z - 022100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Convective initiation is likely 230-400pm over western OK
along the dryline. As updrafts mature, a few supercells will evolve
with an initial large-hail threat. The tornado risk will increase
and probably peak 5-9pm as storms approach and move through the
US-81 and I-35 corridors.
DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a destabilizing
stratocumulus field across western OK and more vigorous cumuliform
development near the dryline and pacific front (located near DDC
south-southwestward into the eastern TX Panhandle/Caprock vicinity).
Surface temperatures east of the dryline over northwest TX northward
through far western OK have risen into the upper 70s deg F with
additional heating into the 80s expected. West Texas Mesonet and
Oklahoma Mesonet dewpoint observations indicate a moist plume
extending from western north TX northward through western OK into
the Pratt/Greensburg, KS vicinity. This warming/destabilizing
characterization of the boundary layer is in contrast to the airmass
sampled earlier this morning by the 16 UTC (10am CST) Norman, OK
raob only depicting very weak buoyancy (100 J/kg MLCAPE) and a 12.4
g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio.
Expecting additional destabilization with greater mixing and erosion
of MLCINH to occur over the western 1/3 of OK through the mid
afternoon. Forecast soundings show moderate buoyancy (1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE) with a moist/high relative humidity boundary layer as
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increase from 13 to 14-15 g/kg.
Expecting a few supercells to evolve from the initial discrete
storms with a large-hail threat ensuing quickly. The tornado risk
will likely peak during the 5-9pm period as storms move east through
the moist plume. Additional storms will likely develop with a mixed
mode of supercell and linear segments posing a continued risk for
tornadoes and severe gusts.
..Smith/Bentley.. 11/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 34439965 37719923 38249849 38439744 38349642 37749605
37629604 36079612 34649678 33849797 33869936 34439965
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from
this afternoon into tonight.
...Central/Southern Plains...
A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with
a strong shortwave trough rotating across the Four-Corners area. As
this features and its associated 80+ knot mid level jet begin to
eject into the southern Plains this afternoon, numerous
thunderstorms are expected to form from west-central TX northward
into parts of KS/NE. Widespread dewpoints in the low-mid 60s,
pockets of heating, and strong low-level winds across a broad area
will result in conditional risks of damaging winds, a few tornadoes,
and some hail. However, there are a few specific scenarios that
appear most likely to focus that risk.
...OK/KS early this afternoon...
Water vapor imagery shows a lead trough currently moving into
western OK. This feature is expected to aid in the development of
scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon, tracking into southern
KS. Wind fields are very strong in this area, and a few supercell
structures are expected. However, forecast soundings show poor
low-level thermodynamics with LFC heights around 700mb. This should
limit the severe risk.
...KS/OK/North TX this afternoon/evening...
The primary severe risk will be with storms forming along the
surface dryline over western OK and south-central KS by late
afternoon. These storms will also be in a favorable shear profile
for supercell structures, but cooling temperatures aloft will also
increase the risk of robust updrafts as storms track quickly
northeastward. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the main
concerns. By early evening, the Pacific cold front will catch up to
the convective line, resulting in more linear structures and greater
wind potential.
...West-Central TX...
The aforementioned convective line will build southward into
west-central TX through the evening, with some risk of damaging
winds and a tornado or two. Low-level winds and large-scale
dynamics will be weaker with southward extent, lessening the overall
severe threat.
..Hart/Chalmers.. 11/02/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
AND THE ARK-LA-MISS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi
Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few
thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes.
...MS Valley area...
The primary surface cyclone is expected to develop
north-northeastward from eastern KS Tuesday morning to the upper MS
Valley by Wednesday morning, as the associated midlevel trough
progresses eastward and northeastward across the MS Valley well in
advance of an upstream trough approaching northern CA. An
associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward through
the day across MO/AR. Clouds and convection will be relatively
widespread along the front at the beginning of the period, and a
messy/QLCS convective mode will likely persist through the day.
The primary cyclone developing away from the moisture source region,
the widespread clouds/rain, and poor midlevel lapse all suggest that
warm sector buoyancy will also remain limited through the period.
The richer low-level moisture and slightly larger buoyancy will
likely remain confined to the Ark-La-Miss, where low-level
shear/hodograph curvature is forecast to be sufficient for embedded
rotating storms capable of producing a tornado or two and isolated
wind damage. The isolated severe threat could persist into Tuesday
night across northern MS and vicinity on the east edge of the
returning low-level moisture and near the southern extent of the
stronger low-level flow/shear. Farther north into the mid MS
Valley, the severe threat farther north will be confined to the
strongest embedded line segments during the day. There is a small
chance for low-topped supercells near the surface cyclone Tuesday
afternoon.
..Thompson.. 11/02/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
A cyclone is forecast to occlude in the vicinity of WI as a cold
front slows its eastward movement late in the period across the
upper OH Valley, and stalls across the TN/lower MS Valley region.
The southern extent of an associated midlevel trough will brush the
northern edge of a weakly unstable warm sector early in the period.
Forcing for ascent and low-level flow/shear will tend to weaken
within the warm sector by afternoon, so any threat for severe storms
in the vicinity of northern AL appears too marginal for an outlook
area. Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes will be possible into
parts of the Great Lakes with marginal buoyancy.
Farther west, a shortwave trough will progress quickly eastward over
the Four Corners to the southern High Plains late in the period.
Ascent in the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet streak, in
combination with sufficient moisture and steep lapse rates, will
support the potential for lightning flashes with low-topped
convection.
..Thompson.. 11/02/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Over the
last 24 hours, a swath of accumulating precipitation extends from
the Desert Southwest into the north-central CONUS. Additionally,
recent rainfall ranging from 0.1-0.9" has tempered fuel concerns
across the lower MS River Valley into central TN. While dry fuels
still exist in parts of the Appalachian Mountains, a minimal overlap
of low RH/strong winds abates a fire weather threat this afternoon.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns will remain low today.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the Day 2/Tuesday Fire Weather Outlook.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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