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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

WW 323 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 122240Z - 130600Z
WW 0323 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
540 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Colorado
  Southwest and South-Central Kansas
  Northeast New Mexico
  Northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Panhandle
  The Northern Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 540
  PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Initial supercells should pose some threat for large hail
generally 1-2 inches in diameter late this afternoon, before an
increasing threat for scattered severe/damaging winds develops this
evening when a bowing cluster forms. This activity will likely
spread eastward across the south-central Plains through early
Saturday morning, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80
mph.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southwest of Trinidad CO to 30 miles north of Alva OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Gleason

  WW 321 SEVERE TSTM DC MD VA WV CW 121845Z - 130100Z
WW 0321 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Maryland
  Virginia
  Eastern West Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will form in Virginia and Maryland this
afternoon, and will spread eastward from West Virginia.  The storm
environment will favor damaging downbursts with winds up to 60-70
mph, while the strongest storms could produce isolated large hail
near 1 inch in diameter.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of
Washington DC to 30 miles south southeast of Dublin VA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29020.

...Thompson

  WW 0323 Status Updates
WW 0323 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0323 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
  WW 0322 Status Updates
WW 0322 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 322

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE TTN
TO 35 WNW EWR TO 30 SSW POU TO 15 SE POU TO 10 N PSF.

..CHALMERS..06/12/26

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 322 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

CTC001-005-009-122340-

CT 
.    CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FAIRFIELD            LITCHFIELD          NEW HAVEN           


MAC003-122340-

MA 
.    MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKSHIRE            


NJC003-013-017-023-025-027-031-035-039-122340-

NJ 
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERGEN               ESSEX               HUDSON              
MIDDLESEX            MONMOUTH            MORRIS              
PASSAIC              SOMERSET            UNION               

  WW 0321 Status Updates
WW 0321 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 321

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW AVC
TO 35 N AVC TO 20 N RIC TO 15 SSW NHK TO 20 SE DCA TO 5 SSE BWI
TO 25 W DOV.

..CHALMERS..06/13/26

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...AKQ...RLX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MDC003-009-130140-

MD 
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         CALVERT             


VAC025-036-041-053-073-081-087-095-097-101-103-115-117-119-127-
133-135-149-159-181-183-199-570-595-670-700-730-760-830-
130140-

VA 
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRUNSWICK            CHARLES CITY        CHESTERFIELD        
DINWIDDIE            GLOUCESTER          GREENSVILLE         
HENRICO              JAMES CITY          KING AND QUEEN      
KING WILLIAM         LANCASTER           MATHEWS             
MECKLENBURG          MIDDLESEX           NEW KENT            
NORTHUMBERLAND       NOTTOWAY            PRINCE GEORGE       
RICHMOND             SURRY               SUSSEX              
YORK                 

  No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 13 01:04:11 UTC 2026.SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of producing large hail and scattered severe
wind gusts will spread east-southeastward across parts of the
south-central High Plains into the overnight hours. Locally damaging
gusts will remain possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic tonight.

...South-central High Plains...
Between a broad large-scale trough over the northern CONUS and an
upper ridge over the southern Plains, water-vapor imagery indicates
a subtle/low-amplitude impulse tracking eastward across the
central/southern High Plains -- embedded within a belt of enhanced
midlevel westerly flow. This feature and accompanying 40-50 kt of
effective shear will maintain an upscale-growing cluster of storms
as is tracks east-southeastward across the southern/central High
Plains into the overnight hours. In the near-term, large hail and
locally severe gusts will be the main concerns, especially with the
more separated updrafts/supercell structures evolving along the
southern flank of the convective cluster in northeastern NM. With
time, strengthening outflow and a nocturnal low-level jet will
promote further upscale growth and scattered severe/damaging gusts.
See Severe Thunderstorm Watch #323 for more information. 

...Mid-Atlantic...
A cluster of thunderstorms tracking east-southeastward across the
Mid-Atlantic will continue to weaken over the next couple hours as
the boundary layer nocturnally stabilizes toward the coast. 

...Eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
Positive low-level theta-e advection at the nose of a strengthening
low-level jet will promote isolated thunderstorm development late in
the period. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop a statically stable
boundary layer will mostly favor elevated storms. Sufficient
deep-layer shear will support convective organization, and severe
hail will be possible with the stronger storms that evolve.

..Weinman.. 06/13/2026

  SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will remain anchored over the southern
Ontario/Quebec regions on Day 3/Sunday as an upper-level ridge
continues to build over the West Coast. Simultaneously, a shortwave
trough is forecast to dig southward around the base of the
persistent Canadian trough, tracking across the northern Rockies.
The upper ridge is expected to break down mid-week as an upper jet
max strengthens and progresses ahead of an incoming northern Pacific
trough. This secondary trough is projected to move onshore into the
Pacific Northwest by Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday, subsequently shifting
the axis of the ridge eastward over the Great Plains.

...Day 3/Sunday - Portions of the Southwest...
An upper-level ridge will remain across the western CONUS as a
shortwave trough traverses the High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. A plume
of mid-level moisture advecting northward from the Baja Peninsula on
Day 2/Saturday will persist across the Southwest, promoting
continued convective potential. Given dry antecedent fuel conditions
resulting from consecutive days of hot, dry, and breezy weather, dry
thunderstorms will pose an ignition concern across southeastern NV
into the Colorado Plateau where a 10% probability of dry
thunderstorms has been introduced. Further spatial modifications to
this risk area remain likely in upcoming outlook cycles as
additional forecast guidance becomes available.

...Day 5-6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Parts of the Intermountain West...
The eventual breakdown of the western ridge is expected to escalate
fire weather concerns across the Intermountain West as the jet
strengthens and gives way to another trough later next week. At
least 2-3 days of well above normal surface temperatures will occur
under the established ridge early next week, with record high
temperatures forecast to be met or exceeded in portions of the
Pacific Northwest. This anomalous, but short-lived, heat wave is
expected to further dry dead fuels over much of the western CONUS -
significantly so over the Pacific Northwest. As the ridge dampens
and begins to slide eastward, robust northwesterly flow aloft should
foster breezy surface winds amid pre-existing very warm and dry
conditions. Thus, 40% Critical probabilities have been expanded from
the Great Basin to portions of the Central Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday
and Day 6/Wednesday.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

 






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