URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM MST Sat Oct 24 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central into Southeast New Mexico
  Far West Texas

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
  900 PM MST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon through this evening from central New Mexico into
south-central/southeast New Mexico and adjacent far west Texas.
Environmental conditions support the potential for supercells,
particularly this afternoon, with large hail as the primary severe
risk. A trend towards linear bowing segments is possible this
evening, with strong gusts becoming the primary hazard.
Additionally, given the supercell storm mode, a low-probability
tornado risk exists across the region as well.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northeast
of Socorro NM to 65 miles southeast of El Paso TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
22030.

...Mosier

STATUS FOR WATCH 0697 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

Mesoscale Discussion 2408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Areas affected...Far West Texas into southeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697...

Valid 242318Z - 250115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697
continues.

SUMMARY...Hail over 1.00" diameter as well as severe wind gusts of
60-70 mph remain possible into the evening as storms move across Far
West Texas and toward southeast New Mexico.

DISCUSSION...Beneath moderate southerly winds aloft, storms have
developed near a surface trough south of the US border, and have
quickly progressed north/northeast across the El Paso area. Cell
motions are mainly toward the north/northeast, around 205 deg at 25
kt on average.

MLCAPE is over 1000 J/kg with 30-40 kt effective shear, which is
supporting the long-lived cells. A few cells have shown more
rightward motion, such as the storm north of Fort Hancock TX, and
increasing  southeasterly boundary-layer winds may aid storm
longevity for a few hours into the evening.

Low-level shear is generally low, but up to 100 m2/s2 0-1 SRH exists
for a right-moving cell. As such, any mesocyclonic enhancement would
likely occur with such motions (closer to 220-240 deg).

..Jewell.. 10/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31880666 32690660 33100643 33320630 33850589 34070549
            34110506 34050442 33970438 33680410 32230419 31170457
            30660514 31360607 31880666 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas today.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the existing severe
probabilities as the forecast remains generally on track. See the
prior discussion below for additional details.

Elsewhere, the General Thunder area was trimmed across portions of
the northern Plains/upper Midwest in the wake of the passage of a
surface cold front and accompanying precipitation.

..Chalmers.. 10/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026/

...NM/Four Corners/Far West TX...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a cyclone centered over
the Lower CO River Valley with expansive ridging downstream from the
western Gulf through the Upper Great Lakes. A shortwave trough is
currently progressing through the southeastern periphery of the
Lower CO Valley cyclone over northwestern Mexico. General
expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward
today with some loss of amplitude as it moves within the confluent
flow between the western CONUS upper low and central/eastern CONUS
ridging. 

Persistence of mostly southwesterly flow aloft will continue to
promote showers and thunderstorms from the Four Corners vicinity
across NM and into far west TX. The airmass becomes more stable with
northern extent but should remain buoyant enough to support
continued thunderstorms. More widespread cloud cover is anticipated
across northern portions of the region, but filtered daytime heating
may result in greater destabilization and attendant risk of a few
strong/severe storms capable of hail.

Greater buoyancy is expected farther south, where dewpoints will
likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s amid afternoon highs in the
mid/upper 70s. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear will
persist across area as well, supporting the potential for
supercells. Additionally, a more southeasterly component to the
low-level flow is possible from south-central/southeast NM into far
west TX, which could support slower storm motions and a relatively
greater potential for hail and tornadoes. Some very large hail
greater than 2" in diameter is also more possible here. This region
should also experience greater large-scale ascent as the shortwave
trough moves through during the late afternoon/early evening. This
greater ascent could result in a more linear mode and the potential
for a few bowing segments. Overall, there appears to be a relatively
greater severe potential from south-central NM into southeast NM and
far west TX compared to areas farther north and west.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...Synopsis...
A series of mid/upper short waves will lift northeastward from the
central and northern Rockies into the Plains, Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes through Day 6/Thursday as a ridging pattern maintains
over much of the eastern U.S. A robust mid-level jet over WY and an
evolving surface low across the northern Plains will contribute to
downslope drying and stronger westerly winds across eastern WY on
Day 4/Tuesday, although cooler temperatures and precipitation
preceding this wind event on Day 3/Monday could reduce overall fire
weather threat. 

Fuels continue to degrade within the lower MS River Basin as severe
to extreme drought slowly expands under persistently dry conditions.
Although receptive fuels exist, a light wind regime under a ridging
pattern and weak surface pressure gradients will limit fire weather
concerns through much of the week. Northeast to east wind
trajectories will keep deeper atmospheric moisture towards the Gulf
Coast resulting in low daytime RH each day across much of the
interior Deep South. Longer term ensemble guidance suggests a return
of more established and deeper troughing across the West while
ridging remains over the eastern CONUS but fire weather concerns are
likely to remain subdued.

..Williams.. 10/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...