WW 680 TORNADO NC SC CW 111355Z - 112100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
955 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Southern North Carolina
Northeast South Carolina
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 955 AM until
500 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
SUMMARY...A broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms is
forecast to move across the Watch area through the late morning and
into the afternoon. A few supercells will pose a risk for a couple
of tornadoes. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Roanoke
Rapids NC to 15 miles east southeast of Myrtle Beach SC. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.
...Smith
WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 680
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE CRE
TO 35 NW ILM TO 30 S RDU TO 35 ENE DAN.
..SQUITIERI..10/11/26
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...MHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 680
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC017-019-061-065-069-077-079-083-101-107-127-129-141-147-163-
181-183-185-191-195-111840-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLADEN BRUNSWICK DUPLIN
EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE
GREENE HALIFAX JOHNSTON
LENOIR NASH NEW HANOVER
PENDER PITT SAMPSON
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WAYNE WILSON
AMZ250-252-111840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20
NM
MD 2361 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 680... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Areas affected...portions of central into northern North Carolina
Concerning...Tornado Watch 680...
Valid 111604Z - 111730Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 680 continues.
SUMMARY...A few tornadoes remain a concern over the next few hours.
The best chance for tornadoes will be ahead of a surface low over
central to northern NC.
DISCUSSION...A band of organized thunderstorms are beginning to show
slightly greater supercell characteristics as it advances eastward
toward an instability axis, where favorable low-level shear is also
present. Surface temperatures are warming into the upper 70s F, amid
mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE per 15Z
mesoanalysis. Furthermore, the RAX VAD depicts an appreciable curved
low-level hodograph, with over 250 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, with nearly 150
m2/s2 contained in the lowest 500 m AGL. As such, a
high-shear/moderate CAPE environment is present to support a
continued isolated tornado threat. While a tornado is possible with
any storm along the primary confluence band, the best chance for a
tornado will be with the northern storms given their proximity to
the surface low, and locally backed winds.
..Squitieri.. 10/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 33567809 33677858 33887877 34337895 35457913 35807911
36437876 36447866 36597821 36627763 36437735 35847732
35027752 34367772 33857792 33567809
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a
tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be
possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.
...Mid-Atlantic...
The remnants of Isaias are now a vertically stacked cyclone centered
over Middle TN this morning. Warm sector associated with this
cyclone is displaced east of the primary cyclone center, and is
delineated well by the 64 deg F isodrosotherm. This isodrosotherm
currently extends from the southern Delmarva Peninsula southwestward
to a triple point low over the TN/NC border and then southward
across central/south-central GA and the far eastern FL Panhandle.
Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow currently
extends throughout the eastern periphery of the cyclone over the
warm sector.
Primary core of the cyclone is forecast to progress northeastward
across the central Appalachians this afternoon/evening before
continuing northeastward across VA to the Mid-Atlantic coast
overnight into early tomorrow. The occluded surface and triple point
lows associated with this system will shift northeastward as well.
This progression will result in northward advection of the warm
sector into more of eastern NC and southeast VA while the cold front
pushes eastward/northeastward. Abundant cloud cover will limit
heating and lapse rates will remain poor, but abundant low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy across the warm
sector. This buoyancy will support thunderstorm development along
and ahead of the cold front as it moves northeastward across the
region. Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow will
persist across the warm sector, supporting the potential for
rotation/organization with any deep and persistent updrafts. As a
result, isolated damaging gusts and a few brief tornadoes are
possible across the region. The best overlap between buoyancy and
shear is expected between 18Z and 00Z from north-central/northeast
NC into central/southeast VA.
...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT. At the same time,
another cyclone will shift southward across the Pacific Northwest.
Dynamic response to this evolution will support a belt of strong
mid-level southwesterly flow from southern CA/AZ through WY into the
northern High Plains. Low to mid-level moisture associated with the
remnants of Rachel will spread northeastward as well.
Persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned
moisture will support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to
mid-level southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense
bowing segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating. A low-probability
tornado risk will also exist from this morning into the early
afternoon across near the surface low over the CA/NV/AZ border
intersection vicinity. Here, moist low-level southerly will elongate
hodographs (as shown in current ESX VAD), resulting in a kinematic
environment supportive of tornadoes. Limited buoyancy should keep
any tornado threat isolated and brief.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/11/2026
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across parts of North Carolina and
Virginia through the late afternoon. Additional storms with
isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert
Southwest and Four Corners region.
...NC/VA vicinity...
Midday water-vapor imagery shows a dry slot/vorticity lobe wrapping
through the base of the larger-scale remnants/cyclone associated
with Isaias and progressing eastward across the southern
Appalachians/Carolinas. Surface analysis places a triple point over
northwest NC with a maritime warm frontal zone draped east-northeast
into the DelMarVa. Despite considerable cloud cover according to
visible-satellite imagery, surface temperatures are gradually
warming into the mid to upper 70s across eastern NC and far
southeast VA. This modest heating has led to the development of
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NC and weaker buoyancy
farther north near Richmond, VA (a few hundred J/kg). The forced
band of broken thunderstorm activity moving east across NC will
likely be the primary feature for severe weather across this general
region through the late afternoon. A few supercells embedded within
the north-south oriented band will potentially pose a risk for a few
additional tornadoes and perhaps an isolated risk for strong to
locally severe gusts (see MCD 2361 for short-term details). Have
added a level-1 intensity highlight for the area of greatest
tornadic supercell potential through mid afternoon. By late this
afternoon, it is possible (albeit uncertain) that a narrow corridor
adequately destabilizes ahead of triple point as it develops
northeastward into central VA. If sufficient destabilization occurs
and sustained/robust storms also develop, a localized tornado/wind
threat could ensue prior to sunset.
...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT. Persistent
large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned moisture will
support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to mid-level
southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense bowing
segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating.
..Smith/Barnes.. 10/11/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from the central
High Plains to the Great Lakes on Monday. This will bring a belt of
mildly enhanced westerly mid/upper flow across the region, with an
increasing southwesterly low-level jet expected by Monday evening
from the Mid-MS Valley into MI. At the surface, low pressure will
shift east across MN/WI/MI, with a trailing cold front surging
east/southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm
front will be oriented west to east across northern WI to northern
Lower MI. Elevated thunderstorms may develop by 00z near and north
of this boundary on the edge of the increasing low-level jet and
stronger warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front. Cooling
aloft will result in a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
supporting modest elevated instability. Small hail may occur with
stronger updrafts within the modestly sheared environment across
northern WI/the U.P. of MI and portions of northern Lower MI during
the evening and overnight hours. Overall severe potential is
expected to remain limited by modest instability and capping across
the warm sector, precluding severe probabilities.
...Southwest/Great Basin...
Lingering moisture across the Southwest and Great Basin will support
scattered showers and thunderstorms within enhanced deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upper low and attendant
trough. Meager destabilization will limit severe potential, though
some gusty winds are possible given stronger synoptic flow.
...Southern High Plains...
A few thunderstorms will be possible along a surface trough/dryline
across western TX/eastern NM as low-level moisture returns north and
west across the southern Plains. Modest vertical shear and weak
instability should limit severe potential, though some locally gusty
outflow winds are possible given steepened low-level lapse rates due
to daytime heating into the upper 80s/low 90s.
..Leitman.. 10/11/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
...Northern Sacramento Valley...
Enhanced northerly winds will persist within a post-frontal regime
across the northern Sacramento Valley through this afternoon with
wind gusts near 40 mph having already been observed in a few
locations. Downslope trajectories funneling into the Sacramento
Valley will promote RH reductions as low as 15% by peak daytime
heating. These dry conditions along with northerly winds of 15-25
mph will bring an elevated fire weather threat to the area through
the afternoon, with improving conditions late afternoon and evening
as winds diminish. No changes were made to the existing Elevated
highlights.
..Williams.. 10/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will remain in place across the Pacific
Northwest/Northern California, with strong southwesterly flow aloft
extending from the Southwest/Southern California into the central
Rockies and northern Great Plains. Concurrently, a surface cold
front will continue to progress across Southern California and
portions of the Great Basin, with chances for precipitation across
much of the Intermountain West. This will largely mitigate fire
weather concerns across much of the western U.S., with the exception
being within the northern Sacramento Valley where dry, post-frontal
flow will foster an elevated fire weather risk today.
...Northern Sacramento Valley...
Northerly, post-frontal flow will funnel into the northern
Sacramento Valley, accelerating from around 10-15 mph early this
morning to 15-25 mph (with the potential for localized gusts up to
30-40 mph) by late morning/early afternoon. Simultaneously,
downslope drying will aid in the reduction of RH values to 15-25%.
With dry fuels existing across the northern Sacramento Valley and
adjacent foothills, this combination of winds/RH will allow an
elevated fire weather threat to materialize today. Additionally,
latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that gusty winds and
reduced RH values will linger into the evening/overnight hours, with
locally elevated fire weather conditions potentially lingering as
late as 03-05 UTC (8-10 PM PDT Sunday night). Only minor adjustments
were made to the existing Elevated highlights with this outlook
update.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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