Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
While a strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon across
far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, organized severe
thunderstorm potential should remain fairly low.

...20z Update...
Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing along the Sacramento
Mountains in southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains in West
Texas. Modestly cool temperatures aloft overlying moist low-levels
and surface temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to low-70s F are
supporting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. While this may allow for
the development of a more robust updraft or two, stronger mid/upper
level flow has shifted eastward (per regional VWPs and 18z observed
soundings from ABQ/EPZ/AMA) in conjunction with the primary
mid-level shortwave trough now noted over the Texas Panhandle, which
is limiting effective shear to generally 30 kts or less across the
region. Thus, the severe threat continues to appear too
limited/isolated to warrant the inclusion of severe probabilities
with this outlook update. See the discussion below for additional
details.

..Chalmers.. 10/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026/

...Far West Texas/Southeast New Mexico...
Widespread cloudiness remains over much of the southern High Plains
as of late morning, with the primary mid-level shortwave trough over
the central Rockies expected to move northeastward across the
central/northern Plains through tonight. Another weak, low-amplitude
shortwave trough will continue to advance northeastward over the
southern High Plains this afternoon. This feature should aid
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across this region in
the 20-22Z time frame. Modest heating of moist low levels coupled
with cool temperatures aloft should support around 500-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, with the greatest instability forecast across far west
TX/southeast NM where some clearing has occurred. However, mid-level
flow and related deep-layer shear should both remain fairly modest
(generally 20-25 kt or less). While a stronger thunderstorm or two
may develop this afternoon, the overall severe hail/wind threat
still appears too limited/isolated to justify including low severe
probabilities with this update.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude upper troughing regime will overspread the
northern CONUS on Wednesday. Within this flow, at least one notable
embedded impulse will traverse the northern Plains, resulting in
surface troughing over the Upper MS Valley, where modest low-level
moisture advection should occur. Enough upper support associated
with the passing of the aforementioned mid-level impulse should
encourage at least elevated thunderstorm development over the Upper
MS Valley, though the prospects of severe thunderstorms are far more
conditional.

...Upper MS Valley...
The approach of the mid-level impulse will result in modest
low-level moisture return over the Upper MS Valley, with surface
dewpoints potentially exceeding 60 F as far north as southern MN. 7+
C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this low-level moisture
will yield MLCAPE potentially reaching 1000-1500 J/kg in spots.
Furthermore, a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is
expected to develop by late afternoon, beneath 30-50 kt 500 mb
west-southwesterly flow. Effective bulk shear up to 50 kts may
result, along with enlarged and curved low-level hodographs (per RAP
and RRFS forecast soundings). Such CAPE/shear profiles ahead of a
mid-level impulse and surface trough could conditionally yield
supercells with severe potential. In actuality though, modest MLCINH
may overspread the warm sector, amid neutral height rises/falls,
which may hinder severe potential, though elevated convection is
still possible later Wednesday night. On balance, the initiation of
robust, surface-based convection appears too limited for the
introduction of severe probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 10/26/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Broader fire weather concerns will remain low across CONUS
D2/Tuesday. A robust 60-70 knot mid-level jet on the southern
periphery of an upper trough will overspread WY into the northern
Plains Tuesday. Surface lee troughing across the northern High
Plains and presence of the strong mid-level jet will support
downslope enhanced westerly winds of 20-30 mph across portions of
central/eastern WY into western SD, in addition to minimum RH of
around 20% by mid afternoon. However, cooler temperatures in the 50s
amid a marginal fuel environment will limit a broader fire weather
threat for the area.

..Williams.. 10/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2/Tuesday. A mid-level
trough will bring westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies.
Lee troughing will increase across portions of northeastern Wyoming
and southeastern Montana. Though windy conditions are forecast,
fuels across the region are marginal with limited RH reductions and
cooler temperatures expected. This should mitigate a broader fire
weather threat across northeastern Wyoming and southern Montana.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...