Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging and accompanying mid-level northwesterly flow will
dominate most of the CONUS as a pronounced mid-level trough
overspreads New England and ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface
high pressure and large-scale subsidence will overspread much of the
U.S. east of the MS River while surface troughing becomes
established across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture. The
net result will be limited thunderstorm development over much of the
CONUS. Along the Gulf Coast into FL, a few thunderstorms may develop
ahead of a diffuse frontal boundary given the presence of seasonable
low-level moisture. A couple of lightning flashes may also accompany
a few mid-level impulses over the Great Basin, Rockies, Upper MS
Valley, and northern New England in association with localized
ascent and cooler temperatures aloft.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/05/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will eject northeastward out of the
Maritimes and New England, with a secondary low-amplitude trough
pushing across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes through Tuesday
night. A large area of high pressure will encompass much of the
eastern states, preventing much destabilization ahead of the Great
Lakes system. Even so, weak elevated instability may support
isolated weak thunderstorms over Michigan late.

To the south, thunderstorms will again be likely over the Gulf of
America into central and southern Florida as northeast surface winds
push a cold front farther south. Weak shear and lapse rates will
preclude severe weather chances over Florida.

Elsewhere, scattered storms are expected over the eastern Great
Basin and into western Colorado, as a pocket of cooler midlevel
temperatures with a weak upper wave moves across the area. Severe
storms are unlikely, though locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out
during the afternoon due to the dry sub-cloud layer.

..Jewell.. 10/05/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will be situated near James Bay on Wednesday, with a
broad upper trough enveloping much of eastern Canada. A strong upper
speed max and tight midlevel temperature gradient will extend
roughly from MN to the Great Lakes, with gradual height falls across
the region. Meanwhile, a southern-stream upper jet will extend from
the Desert Southwest into TX, and across the Gulf Coast states. Cool
midlevel temperatures aloft will be prevalent over the Four Corners
states with -12 C at 500 mb.

Minimal instability will be present to support any thunderstorms
from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, despite the cooling aloft,
as surface temperatures will be relatively cool. A few low-topped
showers may affect the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday night.

Isolated thunderstorms will again be possible over the FL Peninsula,
as a front and surface trough gradually move south. Instability and
shear will be weak enough to preclude any severe weather chances.

Elsewhere, daytime heating and the presence of cool temperatures
aloft will support scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
over parts of UT, CO, AZ and NM. Isolated evening/overnight
thunderstorms may extend into NE, as southwest 850 mb winds develop
over the central Plains, aiding meager moisture advection. Severe
storms appear unlikely.

..Jewell.. 10/05/2026