Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low will move toward the coast of California this
evening as south-southwesterly flow aloft remains in place over the
Desert Southwest. Ahead of this system, instability will be
sufficient for thunderstorm development this evening into tonight
across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West.
Thunderstorms will also be possible tonight along and near an axis
of low-level moisture over the southern and central Great Plains. No
severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. through
daybreak Wednesday.

..Broyles.. 10/21/2026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

Upper-level high pressure will persist across the middle of the
country, while a cutoff low slowly drifts just off the Eastern
Seaboard through Day 3/Thursday. This pattern will continue
near-normal temperatures amid dry conditions over much of the
Southeast US. Vegetation in this area will become increasingly
vulnerable to burning, especially across the southern Appalachian
Mountains and the lower Mississippi River Valley, where ERCs are
forecast to reach the 90-95th percentiles. However, generally weak
winds will limit the overall fire threat. Forecast models suggest
the upper-level ridge will shift toward the East Coast early next
week, briefly introducing at least slightly warmer-than-normal
conditions alongside ongoing dryness.

A strong upper-level low will push onshore CA on Day 3/Thursday and
progress toward the Great Basin, eventually approaching the Great
Plains by Day 6/Sunday. Expect resulting colder air and widespread
precipitation across a large portion of the Intermountain region,
portions of the Sierras, and the coastal CA mountains where fuels
have been persistently dry. Moving forward in time to next week,
forecast certainty decreases. However, recent trends in forecast
guidance indicate that an upper-level ridge is likely to return to
the Intermountain West by mid-to-late next week with embedded
shortwave troughs.

..Stearns.. 10/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...