Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous
United States through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes were needed with this update. Within the exit region of a
robust midlevel jet overspreading the Midwest, a couple of strong
low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Great Lakes
this afternoon, and over the Lower Great Lakes this evening/tonight.
While enhanced low/midlevel flow accompanying the jet and steep
lapse rates could aid in a few strong wind gusts (potentially 40-50
mph) across both areas, limited buoyancy and increasing low-level
static stability over the Lower Great Lakes should limit the overall
severe risk.

..Weinman.. 10/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026/

...Central portion of the Florida Peninsula...
A diffuse frontal zone modulated by scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity will remain draped over the central portion of
the FL Peninsula through tonight.  A very moist tropospheric profile
(sampled by the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob) featuring weak lapse rates
will limit overall updraft strength with scattered convection this
afternoon across the Peninsula.  Weak flow (at or below 20 kt) from
surface through 300 mb will also act to restrict storm organization
potential.  Although a brief tornado/waterspout near the coast
cannot be ruled out, it appears the risk for transient supercell
structures and an associated threat for a brief tornado appear
sufficiently low to preclude introducing severe probabilities this
outlook update.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front.  Overall buoyancy
will be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms.  Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the
low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for tornadoes may develop across parts of northeastern Gulf
coastal areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.

...Discussion...
Within the mid-latitude westerlies, it appears that large-scale
mid-level troughing will undergo substantive further amplification
across British Columbia through the Pacific Northwest.  Downstream
ridging is forecast to build from the lee of the northern Rockies
through the upper Great Lakes/northwest Ontario vicinity, with
large-scale troughing to the east continuing slowly eastward across
New England and the Canadian Maritimes vicinity.

In the wake of the lead troughing, the building center of cool
surface ridging is forecast to shift from the upper Ohio
Valley/Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic Friday
through Friday night.  At least initially, it appears that the south
to southwestern flank of this ridging will nose through much of the
south Atlantic Coast into eastern Gulf Coast states.

At the same time, Isaias is forecast to approach and migrate inland
of the northeastern Gulf coast as a hurricane, in advance of
high-level troughing which models suggest will begin accelerating
northeast of the Texas coastal plain vicinity by early Friday. 
Model spread remains sizable concerning this trough and the track of
the tropical cyclone, however.

...Northeastern Gulf Coast...
Severe probabilities have been adjusted to account for the latest
NHC forecast track of Isaias.  Based on the accelerating northward
motion of this system, evolving hodographs and forcing for ascent
conditionally most conducive to supercell structures with potential
to produce tornadoes could become focused well to the
north-northeast of the cyclone center.  This may begin overspreading
coastal areas by early Friday evening, if not earlier.  Even as this
shifts northward, well inland of coastal areas, it is possible that
hodographs, at least, will remain conditionally supportive of a
continuing risk for supercells with tornadoes as far south as areas
near/west-northwest of the Florida Big Bend through daybreak.

The primary uncertainty with regard to the risk for tornadoes
concerns a preceding influx of potentially cool/stable
boundary-layer air as far south as coastal areas, which may remain
inhibitive through the period.  Based on 07/12Z NAM (with a track
similar, but perhaps slower than the official forecast track)
forecast soundings, low-level thermodynamic profiles do not become
conducive to an appreciable risk for tornadoes until late Friday
night, generally near/northwest of the Florida Big Bend.  This may
be in the wake of the better large-scale forcing for ascent.

..Kerr.. 10/07/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The forecast remains on track for Day 2/Thursday; please see the
previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026/

...Synopsis...
On Day 2/Thursday, the jet streak will continue moving around the
base of the upper-level trough over the New England states. A cold
front accompanying this system will continue progressing southeast
through much of the Northeast CONUS and Mid-Atlantic area by late on
Day 2/Thursday evening. While northwesterly winds behind the front
could gust up to 20-30 mph, these strongest speeds will likely
remain constrained to the Great Lakes region. Regardless, RHs
struggle to drop below 30% behind this frontal passage. This will
again preclude a significant fire weather threat.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...