Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible
this afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
region.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as upper ridging
builds over the Interior West today. This upper air pattern will
support a surface trough and accompanying cold front moving offshore
over the East Coast as surface high pressure becomes established to
the west of the Appalachians, over much of the CONUS. Low-level
moisture along the East Coast will promote thunderstorm potential
ahead of the cold front given associated deep-layer lifting. A few
strong thunderstorms are possible across the Carolinas into the
Mid-Atlantic, where deep-layer ascent and vertical wind shear will
be strongest.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
By late morning into early afternoon, breaks in the clouds from
central NC to the NJ shoreline will contribute to boundary layer
mixing, along with destabilization (given the presence of 60+ F
surface dewpoints). 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this
boundary layer will result in tall, thin CAPE profiles. A few
hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic shoreline,
with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas. As
the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon, a line of
storms should develop along the cold front. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs should support some organization of the squall
line, with a few damaging gusts possible during the afternoon.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/05/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move southeastward through the Great
Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into northern
Florida. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F.
As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm
development is expected in parts of southern and central Florida.
Deep-layer shear across Florida is forecast to be too weak for
organized storms. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday afternoon across parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe
threat is forecast over the continental U.S. Monday and Monday
night.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic
Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the
Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of
southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm
development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional
thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward
into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave
trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2026