Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS...

...SUMMARY...
A storm with isolated severe hail will be possible tonight along the
upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts.

...Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana Coasts...
Water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Desert Southwest with
west-southwesterly flow located across much of the southern U.S. At
the surface, a moist airmass is located over much of the western
Gulf. The northern edge of the moist airmass impinges the middle
Texas Coast, and model forecasts suggest that the airmass will
gradually shift northeastward along the upper Texas into far
southwest Louisiana. Although warm-advection-related thunderstorms
will be mostly concentrated offshore, an isolated strong storm with
hail potential could develop in far southeast Texas or far southwest
Louisiana from late evening into the overnight period.

..Broyles.. 12/04/2025

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

...Synopsis...
Longer term ensemble guidance suggests a large scale upper-level
troughing pattern should hold across the eastern U.S. through the
middle of next week. This should facilitate a mostly stable and
colder air mass across much of the eastern U.S., limiting the fire
weather threat. A mid-level jet and associated ascent in addition to
a frontal boundary meandering near the Gulf Coast should bring
several rounds of rain to much of the Deep South and Piedmont
regions, where severe/extreme drought lingers in portions of
southern GA/northern FL. Farther west, model guidance shows a
gradually expanding upper-level ridge across building into CA and
Desert Southwest through the weekend, allowing dry conditions and
above normal temperatures to develop. A short wave within the
broader northwest flow aloft translates southeastward into the
central/southern Rockies on Day 4/Saturday while a lee cyclone
evolves across the central/southern High Plains. Dry and breezy
conditions should develop across eastern NM and West TX on Day
4/Saturday but antecedent precipitation tonight into Day 2/Thursday,
including accumulating snowfall, should mitigate fire weather
impacts overall into the weekend. The Southern Plains will remain
the focus for fire weather concerns on Days 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday
with potential lee cyclone/trough development along the
central/southern High Plains under robust northwest flow aloft.
However, uncertainty in fuels precludes introducing critical
probabilities at this time.

..Williams.. 12/03/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...