Mesoscale Discussion 0027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...northeast South
Dakota...northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Blizzard 

Valid 181448Z - 181945Z

SUMMARY...Ground blizzard conditions are expected to become more
widespread through late morning/early afternoon across eastern North
Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and far northeast South Dakota.

DISCUSSION...14z surface observations show northerly winds beginning
to increase to 25-35 mph across northeast ND and far northwest MN as
a very cold (-5 to 5 F) air mass begins to push southward into the
Red River Valley of the North. Based on current wind speeds,
temperatures, and the condition of the existing snow pack (per NORSC
analyses), blowing  snow model output suggests that visibility
reductions to 1/4 mile or less should become increasingly common,
especially in open country. This is supported by recent web/plow
cams across the region that depict somewhat reduced visibility
within towns/sheltered areas but significant reductions in open
country. Reflectivity data from upstream radars in southern Manitoba
are also depicting light reflectivity streamers often indicative of
plumes of blowing snow which likely correlate with the most
significant visibility reductions. 

These conditions should become more widespread through the late
morning and early afternoon as the arctic air mass continues to
surge south - especially as wind speeds increase into the 30-35 mph
range, which should correlate with scattered to widespread ground
blizzard conditions per blowing snow model output. Similar wind
speeds were observed yesterday and resulted in sustained 1/4 to 1/2
mile visibility reductions, so confidence is high in ground blizzard
impacts, even into areas immediately south of the existing snow
pack.

..Moore.. 01/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   49030012 49079652 48979623 45859548 45419566 45229614
            45139680 45139734 45389788 48450071 48850087 49030070
            49030012 

Mesoscale Discussion 0026
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Areas affected...Portions of far southeast AL and the western FL
Panhandle into southwest and central GA

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 181206Z - 181700Z

SUMMARY...Rain will transition to snow this morning, with snowfall
rates around 0.5 to locally 1 inch per hour possible for a few hours
before diminishing.

DISCUSSION...A secondary surface cold front will continue to advance
southeastward across AL, GA, and the FL Panhandle this morning. A
plume of precipitation is ongoing ahead of/near the front across
southern/southeast AL into much of southern/central GA and parts of
the FL Panhandle. This activity is being aided by large-scale ascent
associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moving
eastward across the Southeast and the entrance region of a
pronounced southwesterly mid/upper-level jet. Recent RAP/NAM
forecast soundings suggest that additional modest low/mid-level
cooling of already saturated profile will support a quick rain to
snow transition this morning across parts of southeast AL into
southwest/central GA and the FL Panhandle.

Latest (12Z) surface observations show this transition already
occurring across southeast AL, west-central GA, and the western FL
Panhandle, where temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 30s.
Expect this trend to continue farther east in southwest/central GA
through the remainder of the morning. While snowfall rates are not
forecast to be overly high, most guidance suggests that 0.5 to
locally 1 inch per hour rates may occur within the most intense
portion of the precipitation band. These enhanced snowfall rates
should not last more than a few hours in any given location, as
rapidly drying low/mid-levels on the back side of the shortwave
trough will quickly erode precipitation from west to east through
about 17Z (11 AM CST/Noon EST).

..Gleason.. 01/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   30938620 32248492 33078410 33188303 32838259 32218282
            31528361 31058440 30698525 30518585 30658622 30938620 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing will persist today over the central and
eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will pivot
quickly east-northeastward across the Deep South and Atlantic
Seaboard through this evening as a secondary/reinforcing cold front
advances southeastward across the remainder of the central Gulf
Coast states and FL Peninsula. Low-topped convection ongoing this
morning over the east-central Gulf will struggle to attain
sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning as it
approaches the west-central FL Peninsula (Tampa vicinity),
especially given the poor lapse rates and multiple stable layers
aloft observed in the 12Z TBW sounding. Generally 60s surface
dewpoints are in place this morning ahead of the front across south
FL and the Keys. As daytime heating occurs, adequate instability
should develop to support isolated thunderstorms over these areas.
Low-level flow will veer through the afternoon with the approach of
the cold front, and greater thunderstorm potential should eventually
focus offshore. With poor lapse rates aloft limiting updraft
strength, severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Gleason.. 01/18/2026