WW 334 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LE LO 141845Z - 150200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western New York
Far Northern Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region
this afternoon, along and ahead of a east-moving cold front. Overall
buoyancy will likely remain modest, but moderate to strong
deep-layer shear is in place, supporting the potential for
occasionally organized bowing segments capable of damaging gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Rochester NY to 10 miles south southeast of Bradford PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Mosier
WW 333 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH PA WV LE 141725Z - 150100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Indiana
Extreme Northern Kentucky
Ohio
Western Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia
Lake Erie
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in
coverage and intensity along and ahead of a cold front moving
eastward across the Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary severe hazard, although isolated hail is possible within the
strongest updrafts. A low-probability threat for a line-embedded
tornado exists as well, particularly across eastern Ohio and western
Pennsylvania later this afternoon/early evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 135
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast
of Cleveland OH to 20 miles south southwest of Athens OH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Mosier
WW 0334 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0334 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0333 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 1140 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Areas affected...portions of the mid-Tennessee River Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 141843Z - 142015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts this afternoon across portions of the mid-Tennessee River
Valley
DISCUSSION...An uptick in convective coverage has been noted across
portions of the mid-Tennessee River Valley over the past 30-60
minutes with a broken broken band of developing thunderstorms noted
per regional radar imagery. This activity is occurring along a
remnant outflow boundary from overnight convection immediately
downstream of a subtle mid-level MCV. Modestly enhanced mid-level
westerly flow (30+ kts sampled above 1.5-2 km AGL by the HTX VWP and
40+ kts sampled by OHX) is contributing to 20-30 kts of effective
shear. Coupled with a moderately unstable environment in place ahead
of these storms, some potential exists for a marginally more
organized multicell cluster/band to evolve eastward this afternoon,
with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts. Watch issuance
remains uncertain at this time, but a targeted Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may be considered should a corridor of greater severe
potential become evident.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 34168659 34228728 34288776 34378807 34538834 34688840
35008828 35218813 35648770 36028720 36168693 36258657
36188580 36118535 35988519 35758506 35398500 35128505
34738526 34448552 34228600 34168659
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MD 1139 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141808Z - 142015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for
isolated damaging downburst wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have
developed along and inland of the Atlantic Coast sea breeze across
portions of coastal GA/SC/NC as of 18 UTC. Compared to areas farther
inland, modestly greater low-level moisture dewpoints in the
low-to-mid 70s are contributing to greater instability, with MLCAPE
of 1500-2500 J/kg analyzed via latest objective analysis; although,
a lingering warm layer sampled around 500 mb by the 12z MHX/CHS
observed soundings may temper overall convective intensity. Weak
effective shear (less than 20-25 kts) will also tend to limit
overall updraft organization; however, high PWAT contents and
steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential for
water-loaded downbursts, with occasionally damaging wind gusts
possible. An instance or two of small hail may also occur with the
most robust cores. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time
owing to the limited potential for convective organization and
isolated nature of the severe threat.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 32348213 33178135 33868040 34287982 35137866 35537810
35777734 35807692 35827634 35757605 35587590 35247594
34827625 34467663 33767797 32967934 31658096 30978134
30818169 30868224 31218239 31618238 32348213
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 1137 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1137
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Southeast into western North
Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141750Z - 141945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts are possible
through this afternoon/evening with widely scattered thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts surface lee troughing
downstream of the Appalachian Mountains, with a weak surface low
analyzed in western North Carolina. Widely scattered convection has
developed within this lee troughing through early afternoon, with
the greatest coverage noted close to the weak low in the NC/SC/GA
border vicinity. This activity is likely to persist eastward through
the afternoon within a warm, humid air mass (sampled by the 12z FFC
observed sounding). Despite surface dewpoints near 70 F, relatively
warm mid-level temperatures and modestly more well-mixed boundary
layer profiles inland are supporting only weak to moderate buoyancy,
with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE indicated by objective analysis. Weak
deep-layer flow and effective shear across the region will favor an
outflow-dominant storm mode, with some potential for an occasionally
more well-organized cluster or two. The main threat with this
activity will be strong to isolated damaging wind gusts given high
PWAT contents and steep low-level lapse rates. Given the expectation
for storm longevity/organization and severe magnitude to remain
limited, watch issuance is unlikely.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...
TAE...
LAT...LON 36378159 36468127 36488100 36418070 36288047 35748035
35178031 34108063 32698176 31768230 31408249 31158274
31058321 31128417 31368458 31578468 32268468 32818468
33708481 34408490 34888492 35138493 35378486 35508472
35598435 35608378 35528298 35728232 36108184 36378159
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper
Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic States.
...Mid/Upper Ohio Valley to the Northeast/New England...
Morning surface analysis places a low over southeastern Lower MI,
along an extensive cold front that arcs from northwestern Ontario
south-southwestward into southern IL and then more southwestward
through southern MO and central OK into the TX Permian Basin. This
cold front and attendant low are forecast to progress eastward
today, moving just ahead of a shortwave trough pivoting within the
base of a larger upper trough from the OH Valley through the
Northeast. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this
shortwave, with mesoanalysis currently estimating 60 kt at 500 mb
within the base of this shortwave over the IA/MO border.
Moderate low-level moisture is already in place ahead of this
shortwave trough and associated cold front across the OH Valley,
with upper 60s dewpoints currently observed over much of IN and OH.
Low-level moisture decreases with northeastward extent, with low 60s
dewpoints in place across much of PA and western NY, decreasing to
the upper 50s across much of New England. Filtered daytime heating
will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the cold front,
with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s resulting
in moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 800-1000 J/kg) across the
Middle to Upper OH Valley. Modest height falls and ascent along the
front will support thunderstorms within this moderately buoyant
environment. Around 40 kt effective shear could support a few
initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts, particularly in the OH/PA border vicinity where
the best overlap of better buoyancy and shear exists. A brief
tornado and/or hail could also occur given the relative strength of
the wind profiles.
Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints will lead to more limited
buoyancy farther northeast (i.e. from western NY into New England).
However, the airmass is still expected to destabilize, supporting
afternoon/evening thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.
Effective shear around 35 to 40 kt should be sufficient for
occasional organization and some stronger bowing segments.
...Mid-Atlantic to TN/southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the modest lee
troughing expected to extend across the region this afternoon and
evening. This development is forecast to occur well ahead of the
cold front mentioned in the previous subsection, resulting in a
separate area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential from the
Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic.
Dewpoints across the region currently range from the upper 60s
across the central MD and VA to the low 70s across the central
Carolinas. Heating of this airmass will result in moderate to strong
surface-based buoyancy. Shear will be weaker than areas farther
north but still sufficient for organized clusters and/or perhaps a
few supercells. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, with this
potential maximized from eastern PA and NJ southward through the VA
Tidewater region.
Also worth noting is the trend within the recent guidance for a
modestly organized convective line to progress from Middle
TN/northern AL through northern GA. This line appears to result from
upscale growth of a relatively higher concentration of multicells
initially over the western TN vicinity near a weak surface low.
Consistency within the guidance is high enough to extend 15% wind
probability back into middle TN/northern AL to cover this threat.
...Southern Rockies into the Southern High Plains...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across central NM
amid persistent westerly flow aloft and modest mid-level moisture.
Deep-layer shear is strong enough to support a few organized
updrafts capable of hail with any of the early, more cellular
development. Thereafter, a trend towards a more outflow-dominant,
linear structure is anticipated, and a few damaging gusts are
possible with any stronger bowing segments.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/14/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some
severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest.
... Synopsis ...
Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern US on
Monday. Embedded within the larger-scale trough will be several
short-wave troughs quickly moving through. The first of these will
be located across the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the start of the
forecast period before quickly moving east off the East Coast by the
end of the period. A second short-wave trough will dig southeast out
of Canada across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
At the surface, a remnant frontal boundary will hangup across the
northern Gulf states, with a warm, moist airmass to the south and a
continental cooler, drier airmass to the north. A secondary cold
front will push quickly south and east across much of the Plains,
stretching from southeast Colorado into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday
morning.
... Southern Rockies/High Plains into Southwest Kansas ...
Easterly winds early Monday will turn southeasterly to southerly by
late afternoon in response to surface troughing associated with the
approaching mid-level short-wave trough. This will draw modest
surface moisture northwestward into higher terrain of southeast
Colorado (upper 40Fs dewpoints) and plains of southwest Kansas
(upper 50Fs dewpoints).
At the same time, northwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen in
response to the approaching short-wave trough. The result will be
effective shear in the 30-40 knot range across the area by late
afternoon, strengthening into the evening hours as the southerly
nocturnal boundary layer wind maximum develops.
Thermodynamically, the northwesterly flow will maintain steep
mid-level lapse rates. These lapse rates, coupled with diurnal
heating, will yield MUCAPE values from around 500 J/kg in the higher
terrain of southeast Colorado to around 1000-1500 J/kg across
portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas.
Continued low-level theta-e advection overnight should maintain or
increase instability across the area during the overnight.
Current thinking is that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should
develop across terrain favored areas of eastern New Mexico and
southeast Colorado. Strengthening mid-level flow should then support
storm movement to the east/southeast into the High Plains. Initial
thunderstorms should be capable of producing marginally severe hail.
The potential exists for some isolated significant hail where higher
instability exists. With time congealing thunderstorm outflows
should result in an east/southeast moving cluster of storms with a
potential for strong, gusty winds.
A small 15% hail or wind probability may be needed in later updates
if confidence in storm coverage across southwest Kansas and portions
of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles continues to increase.
... Northern Plains and Upper Midwest ...
Despite scant low-level moisture, steepening mid-level lapse rates
may support thunderstorm development during the afternoon and
evening. These storms should be relatively high-based with dry
sub-cloud layers. Strong, gusty winds will be possible with these
storms. A 5% wind area was considered, but low confidence in overall
coverage of gusty winds precluded the introduction at this time.
... Northern Gulf Coast States and Florida ...
A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the sagging/stalled
surface front. Poor lapse rates should limit CAPE generation, but
diurnal heating of this very moist airmass should yield MUCAPE
values around 1500-2000 J/kg across portions of the area. This area
is south of the main mid-level flow, which should limit overall
thunderstorm organization, but high water content may result in a
few wet downbursts capable of producing isolated damaging wind. The
overall coverage looks to remain too low to warrant unconditional 5%
wind probabilities at this time, but will be reevaluated in
subsequent outlooks, particularly across portions of northern
Florida and southern Georgia.
..Marsh.. 06/14/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...Morning Update...
The forecast remains on track. 12z soundings from VEF and PHX
sampled above 90th percentile climatology PWATs, in line with
GOES-derived total PWAT portraying a gradient of 1-1.5" or greater
along/south of the Arizona Central Highlands. Mid-level water vapor
depicts moisture surging northward from the Baja and Sonora regions,
with some thundershowers already occurring over south-central
Arizona. Occasional lightning strikes will pose a concern for new
fire starts where dry fuels exist across the Great Basin and Four
Corners. As with yesterday, erratic gusts of up to 35 mph are
possible with thunderstorm outflows, exacerbating any new/ongoing
fires (such as the Bear Fire in western New Mexico).
Across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin and the Michigan Upper
Peninsula, sustained northerly winds of 10-15 mph will combine with
25-35% RH for a few hours this afternoon. Recent rainfall, sparse
fuels, and limited duration of fire weather conditions preclude the
introduction of broader Elevated highlights. However, localized fire
concerns may emerge where pockets of dry fuels exist.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are forecast from the Four Corners region
into the Great Basin this afternoon along the northern periphery of
a moisture plume originating from Baja. Precipitable water content
of 0.5-0.75 inches, deeply-mixed inverted-V boundary layer profiles,
and LCL-EL mean wind speeds of 15-20 kts will all contribute to
minimal downdraft precipitation efficiency with any storms that
develop. With ERC fuel guidance showing widespread 80th-95th annual
percentiles, lightning ignitions and erratic downdraft winds will
pose fire-weather concerns. While the transition from dry-to-wet
thunderstorms may occur further south of the current outlook area,
some trimming was done to exclude areas that received prior-day
wetting rainfall.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Afternoon Update...
After a brief reprieve, hot, dry and windy conditions return to the
northern/central Plains on Day 2/Monday. Strong, northwesterly flow
aloft will overspread the Central States beneath an anchored upper
low in the southern Ontario/Quebec regions. A southward progressing
surface low over the Great Lakes will tighten surface pressure
gradients along the High Plains, promoting northwesterly sustained
winds of 15-25 mph amid 15-20% RH. Elevated highlights have been
expanded across southeastern WY and northwestern NE to reflect
recent guidance, overlapping 95-98th percentile ERCs where receptive
fuels exist (and the ongoing South Fork Fire in northwestern NE).
Despite weaker upper-level support, stronger terrain-driven winds of
15-20 mph (locally greater in gap-flow areas and higher elevations)
and 10-15% RH will promote locally elevated fire weather conditions
across parts of the eastern Great Basin, Four Corners, and Central
Rockies.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast for portions of
eastern Wyoming into Nebraska on Monday, as a dry and breezy
post-frontal airmass produces 15-20 MPH winds with 15-20% relative
humidity across the area. These conditions will overlap with
generally critical fuels, as ERCs are forecast to be in the
95th-98th percentile range. There is still some uncertainty in the
overall coverage and duration of Elevated conditions, so expansion
may occur in future updates.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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