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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

WW 337 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ NY PA CW 142305Z - 150500Z
WW 0337 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
705 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Delaware
  Eastern Maryland
  New Jersey
  Southern New York
  Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 705 PM
  until 100 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will spread eastward this
evening and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging
winds, with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph possible. A brief
line-embedded tornado or two and occasional hail may also occur.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Monticello NY to 35 miles south southwest of Dover DE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...WW 334...WW
335...WW 336...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.

...Gleason

  WW 335 SEVERE TSTM DC MD VA WV CW 142015Z - 150300Z
WW 0335 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
415 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Western and Central Maryland
  Central and Northern Virginia
  Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 415 PM until
  1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon and evening within the warm, moist, and unstable
environment in place across the region. Recent 18Z sounding at IAD
sampled 42 kt of 0-6 km shear, which is more than sufficient for
updraft organization. General expectation is for multiple rounds of
occasionally severe storms, with damaging gusts as the primary
severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail could occur as well.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of
Martinsburg WV to 40 miles southeast of Lynchburg VA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...WW 334...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.

...Mosier

  WW 0337 Status Updates
WW 0337 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 337

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..DEAN..06/15/26

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 337 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

DEC001-003-005-150140-

DE 
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT                 NEW CASTLE          SUSSEX              


MDC011-029-035-041-150140-

MD 
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAROLINE             KENT                QUEEN ANNE'S        
TALBOT               


NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-027-033-035-037-041-150140-

NJ 
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BURLINGTON          CAMDEN              
CAPE MAY             CUMBERLAND          GLOUCESTER          
HUNTERDON            MERCER              MORRIS              
SALEM                SOMERSET            SUSSEX              
  WW 0336 Status Updates
WW 0336 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 336

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE AOO
TO 20 SSW IPT TO 10 SSE ELM.

..WEINMAN..06/15/26

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 336 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

PAC057-081-087-109-119-150240-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FULTON               LYCOMING            MIFFLIN             
SNYDER               UNION               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  WW 0335 Status Updates
WW 0335 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 335

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W DOV TO
20 NNW DCA TO 35 SSE CXY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147

..GLEASON..06/15/26

ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RNK...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 335 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MDC005-015-019-025-027-039-045-047-510-150240-

MD 
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE            CECIL               DORCHESTER          
HARFORD              HOWARD              SOMERSET            
WICOMICO             WORCESTER           


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY       


VAC001-131-150240-

VA 
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ACCOMACK             NORTHAMPTON         


  WW 0334 Status Updates
WW 0334 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 334

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BFD TO
45 ENE BFD TO 20 E ELM.

..WEINMAN..06/14/26

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 334 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC015-101-150040-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHEMUNG              STEUBEN             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  WW 0333 Status Updates
WW 0333 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 333

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CRW
TO 25 SSE LBE.

..WEINMAN..06/15/26

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...CLE...RLX...PBZ...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

WVC001-007-013-021-041-049-075-077-083-087-091-093-097-101-
150140-

WV 
.    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBOUR              BRAXTON             CALHOUN             
GILMER               LEWIS               MARION              
POCAHONTAS           PRESTON             RANDOLPH            
ROANE                TAYLOR              TUCKER              
UPSHUR               WEBSTER             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  MD 1147 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335...337... FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
MD 1147 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...337...

Valid 150125Z - 150330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335, 337
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for strong to locally severe storms will continue
into late evening. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a brief tornado
all remain possible.

DISCUSSION...An increase in semi-discrete storms has recently been
noted from southeast PA into MD and northern VA, with a supercell
ongoing as of 0115Z south of Lancaster, PA. The 00Z IAD sounding
depicted 45 kt of effective shear and MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg,
which will continue to support supercell potential with the
strongest storms through the evening. Damaging wind, isolated hail,
and perhaps a brief tornado could accompany any sustained supercell.
This developing cluster of storms may eventually spread into parts
of DE and NJ with a continued severe risk. 

Farther west, a line of storms associated with a cold front is
moving eastward across central PA, with occasional wind-damage
reports and observed gusts of generally 50-60 mph. This line may
continue to pose a threat of wind damage in the short term as it
moves eastward, though some continued weakening is expected with
time later through the evening.

..Dean.. 06/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40687422 38097549 38657612 39047701 39727785 40097764
            40507742 40827714 41397672 42117596 42107531 42127468
            41617425 40687422 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

  SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity spreading toward the northern Mid Atlantic
urban corridor this evening could still pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado or two, before weakening
and spreading offshore.

...01Z Update...
Low-level lapse rates are beginning to stabilize and the
boundary-layer remains only modestly moist inland of coastal areas
from New Jersey northward.  However, the leading edge of a plume of
boundary-layer moisture return characterized by upper 60s to near
70F surface dew points is still contributing to CAPE on the order of
1000 J/kg across parts of central and eastern Maryland into
southeastern Pennsylvania, where temperatures remain near 80 F. 
With stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent still upstream, vigorous
thunderstorm development may be maintained into and across much of
eastern Pennsylvania and portions of the lower Hudson Valley through
mid to late evening.

Low-level hodographs across this region still appear conducive to at
least some risk for a tornado, mainly in the more discrete stronger
cells preceding the pre-frontal convective line.  While the line has
recently been weakening, some re-intensification still appears
possible, which could be accompanied by increasing potential for
strong to severe surface gusts, in the presence of 40-50 kt
southwesterly deep-layer mean flow.

..Kerr.. 06/15/2026

  SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will persist across the northeastern
CONUS through late next week as an upper low remains anchored over
the southern Ontario/Quebec regions. An upper-level ridge will
flatten over the Pacific Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday, eventually
breaking down and shifting eastward over the central CONUS as a
trough moves onshore the West Coast by Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday.
Consequently, some isolated dry thunderstorm potential alongside dry
and breezy conditions with above normal temperatures (and resultant
dry fuels) will support expansive fire concerns through the
remainder of the forecast period. While timing differences in
various NWP guidance currently precludes the introduction of
critical probabilities past Day 6/Friday, highlights may be needed
in future outlook cycles as details become better resolved. 

...Days 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Parts of the Intermountain West...
Well above normal surface temperatures will occur under the upper
ridge through early next week, with record high temperatures
forecast to be met or exceeded in portions of the Pacific Northwest
and along the West Coast. This anomalous, but short-lived, heat wave
is expected to further dry dead fuels over much of the western CONUS
- significantly so over the Pacific Northwest. 

As the ridge dampens, robust northwesterly flow aloft should foster
breezy surface winds amid pre-existing warm and dry conditions.
Thus, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained across eastern
Washington and southeastern Oregon on Day 3/Tuesday where fire
weather conditions will overlap a vast region of cured grasses. As
robust northwesterly flow aloft overspreads the central Rockies and
a dry cold front traverses the central Plains, heightened fire
concerns reemerge as ERCs approach the 90-95th percentile. 40%
Critical probabilities have been maintained across the region on Day
3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday, though spatial extent may be adjusted
in future outlooks with updated guidance and fuel progression. A
residual dry airmass will persist across the Southwest and Great
Basin on Day 5/Thursday, however weaker flow precludes the
introduction of probabilities at this time.

As the upper ridge breaks down, upper-level troughing will move
onshore the West Coast by the end of this week. Above normal
temperatures are forecast across the Pacific Northwest on Day
6/Friday ahead of a southward progressing cold front, which should
bring increasing mid-level moisture and chances for thunderstorms.
Given preceding days of warm and dry conditions and coincident
curing fuels, the isolated nature of thunderstorm potential could
pose a threat for lightning ignitions across a very dry environment.
As a result, 10% probabilities for Dry Thunderstorms have been
introduced across the southern Cascades and northern Great Basin.
These conditions may persist overnight and into Day 7/Saturday,
however there is too much uncertainty in coverage and the transition
to wetting rainfall, precluding additional probabilities for now.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

 






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