Mesoscale Discussion 1719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of north-central into northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 240358Z - 240500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An instance or two of severe hail may accompany one of the
stronger storms over the next couple of hours. However, any severe
threat that manages to materialize should remain sparse and short
lived.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually intensified along the terminus
of a strengthening low-level jet, where 850 mb warm-air-advection
and isentropic ascent are maximized. Latest MRMS mosaic MESH data
suggests that some of the stronger embedded cells may be producing
hail approaching severe criteria. Nonetheless, as these storms
progress eastward, they should zonally outpace the low-level jet
axis and accompanying MUCAPE field (exceeding 500 J/kg). Therefore,
the expectation is for the severe hail threat to remain sparse at
best, as well as short lived.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39289897 39539800 39599639 39259531 38949507 38759525
            38699585 38639643 38649711 38839806 39289897 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this evening across
parts of the central/southern High Plains, interior Northwest, and
south Texas.

...Southwest KS vicinity...
Convection may persist through much of the night across parts of
western KS, in response to a weak midlevel shortwave trough and
strengthening low-level jet. Veering wind profiles will provide
sufficient deep-layer shear for occasional storm organization,
though generally modest buoyancy and a tendency for much of the
convection to develop/persist to the cool side of increasing outflow
may tend to limit the coverage and magnitude of the severe threat. A
narrow corridor near and east of Dodge City appears to have the
greatest severe risk through dusk, though isolated severe gusts and
hail will continue to be possible across a larger portion of the
central/southern High Plains through much of the evening. 

...Interior Northwest...
Strong to locally severe storms remain possible early this evening
from eastern OR into southeast WA and western ID. Large-scale
forcing is not particularly strong, but MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg
and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional
storm organization, with a threat isolated hail and strong to severe
gusts. The threat should diminish later tonight with the onset of
nocturnal cooling/stabilization across the region. 

...South Texas...
Tropical Depression Bertha is centered over the Houston vicinity
this evening. A continued weakening trend is expected through the
evening (reference NHC advisories for more information). To the
west/southwest of Bertha, modestly enhanced midlevel flow persists
this evening, per regional VWPs. Convection with locally damaging
gusts cannot be ruled out through dusk, with some threat possibly
persisting into late evening into parts of Deep South Texas.

..Dean.. 07/24/2026