Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the Great Lakes is forecast to strengthen through
the day today as it merges with a weaker shortwave trough emanating
from the mid MS Valley. East of the mid-level cyclone, a belt of
enhanced southerly flow aloft will gradually overspread portions of
the Appalachians and Atlantic Seaboard into the evening and
overnight hours. A broad surface low over the lower St Lawrence
valley will weaken as a second low forms over the eastern Great
Lakes. An associated diffuse cold front is forecast to move slowly
southeastward across the Appalachians toward the Atlantic Coast.

...Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic...
Ahead of the cold front a moist air mass will remain in place with
dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Low-level warm air advection will favor
cloudiness and only modest buoyancy with continued weak southerly
surface winds. The stronger flow aloft is expected to arrive later
in the diurnal cycle and will mainly be focused behind the cold
front. Given the weak overall forcing and modest buoyancy,
relatively isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Additional storms may develop along the front later in the evening,
but little severe potential is expected owing to the weak buoyancy
and poor overlap with stronger vertical shear.

...Southern New England...
Farther north, a moist but cooler boundary layer will likely be in
place ahead of the cold front from MA to southern NY. The humid
environment could support very weak buoyancy immediately ahead of
the front amid strengthening flow aloft. Frontal forcing is not
expected to be overly strong, but could support a shallow convective
band ahead of the front late in the evening and overnight. Some
potential may exist for intermittent strong gusts to reach the
surface, but confidence remains quite low.

...OK/TX...
A weak vorticity max will move across OK on the southwestern flank
of the larger-scale eastern trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will
support weak elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms expected
through the day and into the evening. Scattered elevated
thunderstorms are also expected over Deep South TX, as the southern
end of the cold front undercuts a moist air mass near the Gulf. Weak
shear and buoyancy should preclude a severe risk.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/05/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the
eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

...Discussion...
An upper low will move slowly east across the Great Lakes with a
leading speed max farther east into the Mid Atlantic. Moderate
southwest winds and cooling aloft will overspread that region during
day, with a surface trough developing from southern New England into
the eastern Carolinas.

Ahead of a cold front, southwest low-level winds with 20-30 kt 850
mb speeds will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints from eastern VA
southward. Heating will be limited as rain and storms are likely to
be ongoing Friday morning from southern New England into Virginia.
Increasing large scale ascent will further expand storm coverage by
midday into the Carolinas.

A narrow plume of MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg is possible ahead of the
ongoing activity/outflow, with effective shear of 35-40 kt. A few
bowing structures may occur with locally damaging gust, or perhaps a
brief tornado. However, the primary mitigating factor will be
relatively poor low-level lapse rates.

..Jewell.. 11/05/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A minimal fire weather threat is expected across the CONUS for
today. An eastward advancing mid-level trough and related
precipitation along a cold front will move into the Northeast today,
moistening fuels across the region and reducing fire weather
concerns.

..Williams.. 11/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...