Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible
today from the eastern Florida Panhandle northeastward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the
Desert Southwest.

...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas...
The remnants of Isaias are forecast to move northward into the
Tennessee Valley today. The eastern extent of the system will move
north-northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina today, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop as surface
temperatures warm. From eastern Georgia into South Carolina, surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F will contribute to moderate
instability, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
range. RAP forecast soundings along and near the axis of instability
this afternoon have veering winds with height below 850 mb and 30 to
40 knot of flow in the low to mid-levels. 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity is forecast to peak near 225 m2/s2. This will support a
tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete. The
tornado threat is expected to persist into the evening as the
eastern periphery of Isaias moves into the Carolinas. 

...Western and Southern Arizona/Southeast California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward toward Baja
California today, with the system interacting with Tropical Storm
Rachel. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture advection will
increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much of western and
southern Arizona by this evening. In response, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase to near 1000 J/kg over parts of southwest Arizona. This
combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the system and lift
associated with a low-level jet will provide support for scattered
thunderstorm development. In addition, the exit region of a
mid-level jet is forecast to overspread southwest Arizona during the
evening. This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer
shear, which will be sufficient for supercells. If a supercell can
develop, then isolated severe wind gusts would be possible.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/10/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts appear possible over portions of North Carolina,
Virginia, and southeast Maryland Sunday afternoon and evening. A
brief tornado or two may occur over portions of the lower Colorado
Valley Sunday morning, with sporadic occurrences of severe wind
gusts possible into the Great Basin and central Rockies Sunday
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low over KY and TN Sunday morning is forecast to
evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Mid-Atlantic by
Sunday night. That system will be preceded by a focused corridor of
height falls and a belt of 45-55+ kt southwesterly flow in the
midlevels, which will overspread the Carolinas and southern
Mid-Atlantic during the day. While the primary surface low will
remain displaced to the northwest of the warm sector, secondary
cyclogenesis is forecast during the afternoon over central VA at the
junction of a cool front/trough advancing east from the Blue Ridge
and a warm front lifting north into the Mid-Atlantic.

Elsewhere, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel will weaken while
accelerating from southern CA into the Great Basin within a belt of
50-60 kt midlevel flow. The associated surface circulation/low will
likewise develop from southern CA into northern UT by Sunday
evening.


...Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...

A 40-45 kt low-level jet will persist over the Piedmont and Coastal
Plain, enhancing the poleward transport of a moist boundary layer,
characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at 12Z Sunday within the
expanding warm sector with lingering clouds and areas of
precipitation limiting daytime heating and resultant destabilization
at many locations. Nonetheless, a moist and at least marginally
unstable air mass will coincide with strengthening low-level and
deep-layer shear, which may support transient supercells with the
threat for a brief tornado or two and/or strong wind gusts spreading
from the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.  

A higher-probability risk for sustained supercells capable of a few
tornadoes and damaging winds may materialize by afternoon into
evening from portions of central and eastern NC into south-central
into southeast VA, where the 00Z REFS and HREF guidance indicates a
corridor of locally stronger instability (SBCAPE up to 1000-1250
J/kg). Those areas have been upgraded to 5% tornado and 15% wind
probabilities and a related Level-2/Slight Risk.  
  

...Lower Colorado Valley into the Great Basin and central Rockies...


A low-level moisture plume (e.g., dewpoints in the mid 50s to
mid-upper 60s) originating from the Gulf of CA will reside over the
lower-CO Valley Sunday morning, with REFS and HREF guidance
indicating SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Relatively strong vertical
shear, aided by the low-level mass response to the remnant Rachel
circulation, will be more than sufficient for supercells and bowing
structures capable of isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado or two over the lower-CO Valley Sunday morning.

As mentioned in the synopsis, the system will weaken through the
day, leading to greater uncertainty in the extent of any associated
severe weather threat during the afternoon into evening. That said,
corridors of modest instability are expected to develop across
portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies, which combined
with relatively strong cloud-bearing shear will be supportive of
widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

...Synopsis...

A midlevel low initially over the Columbia Basin is forecast to
progress south toward the Sierra Nevada, while an upper-level jet
streak develops from the lower-CO Valley into the Upper Midwest.
Ahead of the latter feature, a low-amplitude short-wave trough is
projected to move from the northern High Plains into the Upper
Midwest, embedded within a belt of 40-50 kt midlevel flow. In the
low levels, an area of low pressure loosely related to the
short-wave trough is expected to develop from the mid-MO Valley into
the Upper Midwest along a stationary front. A cold front will trail
southwest from that feature, linking with a secondary cyclone over
the central High Plains.

...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...

A plume of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates of around 7 C/km
will overlie the northern extension of a moistening boundary layer,
supporting a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon to the
south of the surface low and associated front described in the
synopsis. Capping at the base of the lapse-rate plume/EML is likely
to inhibit surface-based storm development in the warm sector.
However, the 00Z models suggest that a cluster of elevated
thunderstorms may persist Monday afternoon into night to the
immediate north of the warm sector within a zone of forcing for
ascent preceding the short-wave trough. While a few strong storms
capable of small hail appear possible, marginal parcel buoyancy and
only modest cloud-bearing shear are expected to limit the threat for
severe weather.

..Mead.. 10/10/2026