Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis centers an expansive 1040 mb high over OK.
Cold and stable airmass and offshore trajectories associated with
this high will preclude thunderstorm development across much of the
central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is along and ahead of
a decaying cold front as it moves through central and southern FL.
Regional radar imagery currently shows some deeper convection just
ahead of this front over central FL, where the dewpoints are in the
70s. However, even with this low-level moisture in place, more than
isolated deep convection appears unlikely due to warm mid-level
temperatures and associated poor lapse rates. A few deeper updrafts
capable of lightning could still occur briefly, particularly on the
southeast FL Coast where high temperatures will reach the low 80s,
but overall lightning coverage is still expected to be less than 10
percent.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/26/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Persistent eastern US troughing will gradually consolidate with
pronounced northwesterly flow aloft developing over central and
eastern CONUS. Ridging to the west will further enhanced surface
high pressure over the Midwest. With Arctic air and widespread snow
cover in place, cool and dry surface conditions will negate
thunderstorm potential.

..Lyons.. 01/26/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A
robust Arctic air mass associated with continued troughing over the
eastern US will be reinforced by several additional perturbations
moving out of Canada and a building western US ridge. As the flow
pattern aloft amplifies, surface cyclogenesis appears possible over
the eastern Gulf and Atlantic seaboard this weekend, further
increasing offshore flow and limiting substantial inland moisture
return/destabilization. Thus, thunderstorm potential appears
negligible through the extended forecast period.