WW 316 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 112050Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 316
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest into Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely develop along/near a cold front
this afternoon across parts of Oklahoma. This activity should pose
some threat for large hail generally up to 1-1.75 inches in
diameter. Scattered severe/damaging winds with peak gusts up to
60-70 mph should also occur as this convection spreads
east-southeastward through the evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest
of Altus OK to 15 miles east of Chandler OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 312...WW 313...WW
314...WW 315...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Gleason
WW 315 SEVERE TSTM DC MD NY PA VA WV CW 112015Z - 120200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
415 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Western, Northern, and Central Maryland
Western and South-Central New York
Central Pennsylvania
Northern Virginia
Eastern West Virginia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 415 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely
SUMMARY...Loosely organized thunderstorm clusters should continue to
pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds through the
afternoon and evening as they spread generally eastward. Peak gusts
may reach up to 60-65 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of
Ithaca NY to 55 miles south southwest of Martinsburg WV. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 312...WW 313...WW 314...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Gleason
WW 314 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KS MO OK 111945Z - 120200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Western Illinois
Southeast Kansas
Missouri
Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and
intensity along/ahead of a cold front this afternoon and evening.
The strongest convection may become supercellular and pose a threat
for large to very large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two.
Otherwise, scattered severe/damaging winds appear likely as
thunderstorms grow upscale into one or more bowing clusters through
the evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles northwest of
Saint Louis MO to 10 miles southwest of Muskogee OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 312...WW 313...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
28035.
...Gleason
WW 313 TORNADO IA IL IN MO WI LM 111855Z - 120200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern and Eastern Iowa
Northern and Central Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Northern Missouri
Southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A complex scenario remains apparent this afternoon across
the Midwest. Any supercells which can become surface based will pose
a threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail given a
rather favorable environment. The threat for widespread
severe/damaging winds will increase through the afternoon/evening as
thunderstorms likely grow upscale into an intense bowing cluster.
Peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Kirksville
MO to 80 miles east northeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado
watch number 311. Watch number 311 will not be in effect after
155 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 312...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.
...Gleason
WW 312 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA WV 111720Z - 120000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest New York
Eastern Ohio
Western and Northern Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Loosely organized clusters should pose a threat for mainly
damaging winds as they move east-northeastward this afternoon and
evening. Peak gusts may reach up to 60-65 mph, and isolated severe
hail may occur with the strongest cores.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest
of Bradford PA to 20 miles east southeast of Parkersburg WV. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 311...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Gleason
WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0316 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0315 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 315
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOORE..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...BGM...BUF...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 315
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-112240-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC001-003-005-013-021-023-025-027-031-033-043-510-112240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE
CARROLL FREDERICK GARRETT
HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY
PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
NYC007-011-015-017-023-025-053-067-077-097-099-101-107-109-
112240-
WW 0314 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 314
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE PNC TO
10 SSW CNU TO 30 W SZL TO 35 SSE CDJ TO 25 ENE CDJ.
..MOORE..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LSX...ICT...SGF...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 314
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-112240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
ILC013-061-083-117-119-133-163-112240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MONROE
ST. CLAIR
KSC011-019-021-037-099-125-133-112240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE
WW 0313 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 313
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CDJ TO
40 NE IRK TO 15 SSE LNR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093
..MOORE..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 313
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-007-009-011-015-017-031-037-039-043-053-057-063-067-071-
073-075-085-089-091-093-095-097-099-103-105-107-109-111-113-123-
125-129-131-137-141-143-149-155-161-167-169-171-175-177-179-187-
195-197-201-203-112240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOONE BROWN
BUREAU CARROLL CASS
COOK DE KALB DE WITT
DUPAGE FORD FULTON
GRUNDY HANCOCK HENDERSON
HENRY IROQUOIS JO DAVIESS
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
KNOX LAKE LA SALLE
LEE LIVINGSTON LOGAN
MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MCLEAN
MARSHALL MASON MENARD
MERCER MORGAN OGLE
PEORIA PIKE PUTNAM
ROCK ISLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER
SCOTT STARK STEPHENSON
WW 0312 Status Updates
112240-
STATUS REPORT ON WW 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE UNI TO
25 SSE HLG TO 30 NE LBE TO 25 S BFD TO 40 W ELM TO 25 S ROC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
..MOORE..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC021-023-033-047-051-059-063-105-111-129-112240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMBRIA CAMERON CLEARFIELD
ELK FAYETTE GREENE
INDIANA POTTER SOMERSET
WESTMORELAND
WVC001-017-033-049-061-073-077-083-085-091-093-095-103-107-
112240-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR DODDRIDGE HARRISON
MARION MONONGALIA PLEASANTS
PRESTON RANDOLPH RITCHIE
TAYLOR TUCKER TYLER
WETZEL WOOD
MD 1095 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 313... FOR WESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Areas affected...Western Illinois
Concerning...Tornado Watch 313...
Valid 112111Z - 112245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 313 continues.
SUMMARY...The tornado potential appears to be increasing across
western Illinois.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery out of KILX depicts a strengthening
supercell with an organizing mid-level mesocyclone near Carthage,
IL. Live web streams depict a strengthening low-level mesocylone as
well, suggesting the potential for tornadogenesis is increasing.
This cell is drifting northeastward within a warm advection regime
where low-level SRH has been increasing per the KILX VWP (0-1 km SRH
has recently increased to 200 m2/s2). Per latest RAP mesoanalysis
estimates, downstream STP values are also increasing to 6-7. The
potential for destructive storm interactions appears limited for the
short term (next hour or so), suggesting that the potential for a
long-track supercell is increasing with an attendant threat or one
or more tornadoes, including possible a strong/intense tornado.
..Moore.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40329155 40649141 41399011 41388972 41108948 40868946
40598945 40398966 40269014 40199091 40149118 40169142
40329155
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 1094 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Areas affected...northern Indiana and southwestern Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 112023Z - 112200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some threat for continued severe wind gusts will persist
into northern Indiana and southwestern Michigan, but the overall
risk should diminish in the next few hours. A watch appears unlikely
at this time.
DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms persists in northwestern
IN, moving east-northeastward at around 35 kts. There are some
deeper updrafts within the complex, and the cold pool appears fairly
well organized with some enhanced inflow notches evident per KLOT
radar imagery. It is riding along the northern periphery of the warm
sector with moisture-rich air to the south (dewpoints in the low 70s
F). Bulk shear values are around 40-50 kts but dwindle quickly to
the east. As the system continues propagating eastward away from the
mid-level jet core, gradual weakening is anticipated in the next few
hours. This is supported by the latest WoFS guidance. However, some
wind threat might persist in the short term given the relatively
organized cold pool.
..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...
LAT...LON 40278675 40568743 41298729 41868706 41998682 42188592
41998506 41248494 40618573 40278675
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1093 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 313... FOR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Areas affected...northeast Missouri...eastern Iowa...northwest
Illinois
Concerning...Tornado Watch 313...
Valid 112007Z - 112200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 313 continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of severe storm potential is now developing
into southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, and northwest Illinois.
Tornadoes, particularly damaging winds, and hail will all be
possible.
DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture and instability have rapidly
developed northeastward from MO into IA ahead of the cold front,
with mid 80s over mid 70s F. Gusty southwest winds are also
providing surface air mass recovery into eastern IA and western IL
where outflow is modifying. Low-level shear is quite strong in this
area, with favorable hodographs for supercells and tornadoes. The
DVN VWP, although on the cool side of the boundary, indicates 0-1 km
SRH around 500 m2/s2. However, values in excess of 200 m2/s2 exist
south of the low and outflow boundary which is clearly sufficient
for tornadoes.
Radar shows storms already extending from the surface low in
east-central IA into far northern MO along the cold front which
continues to advance eastward. Storm structure is mixed, but
favorable deep-layer shear over 50 kt will support further
organization over the next few hours. Both supercells and severe
bows will be possible. Strong tornado potential will depend on
non-linear mode, and is likely to be maximized from the surface low
eastward along the northward advancing outflow boundary. This
includes into north-central IL later today as air mass recovery
continues.
..Jewell.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 41519228 41779141 41799078 41709048 41569027 40918987
40428981 40078990 39909021 39699143 39659325 40039326
40539294 41519228
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 1092 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312... FOR WEST-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN MARYLAND...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Areas affected...west-central Pennsylvania...western New
York...western Maryland...and northern West Virginia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...
Valid 111948Z - 112145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across WW312,
primarily across portions of southwestern Pennsylvania ahead of a
more organized convective line.
DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm complexes have developed across
western NY and PA, eastern OH, and northern WV. Some damaging wind
reports have occurred as a result, particularly with the convective
line in southwestern PA. KPBZ sampled around 50 kts around 700 ft
ARL as the line passed at 1900z. Although bulk shear will remain on
the modest side (around 20 kts), it should be sufficient to maintain
more organized thunderstorm complexes as they move eastward into a
region of MLCAPE around 2000+ J/kg. The greatest short-term threat
for severe wind gusts will be in southwestern PA ahead of the
organized convective line.
Strong thunderstorms have also formed in western NY along the
northern periphery of the unstable airmass. Here, bulk shear is
slightly more supportive of discrete rotating updrafts (as evidenced
by some low-level rotation in the cells east of Buffalo, NY as of
1945z) but buoyancy is more limited. A local wind and small hail
threat could persist here with any sustained storm.
Additional convection in the western portions of WW312 may also pose
a short-term severe threat, but should be tempered by cold outflow
(10-15 F deficits) in the wake of the leading convection.
..Flournoy.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 40987991 41597960 42317858 42967749 43157687 42737615
41527733 40067830 39377929 39048002 38988052 39238081
40318013 40987991
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region,
including far eastern Iowa, northern Missouri, northern/central
Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Lower Michigan, and northern Indiana.
This includes the potential for widespread/intense damaging winds
(some 75+ mph), large hail, and several tornadoes, some of which may
be strong to intense.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains mostly on track with only minor
adjustments made. Across the Midwest, latest GOES imagery shows
gradual clearing across southern IA/northern MO/western IL behind a
decaying MCS. Surface observations across southern IA show some
degree of air mass recovery is ongoing; however, the quality of
destabilization with northeastward extent remains very uncertain
given more extensive cloud cover, additional precipitation, and the
rapid approach of the cold front from the west.
Nonetheless, regional 18z RAOBs and VWPs are sampling the approach
of a 60-70 knot mid-level jet, which heralds the onset of stronger
synoptic ascent across the upper MS Valley. Southerly low-level flow
should strengthen through the evening in response to increasing
ascent, which will likely help advect higher theta-e air
north/northeastward as well as begin to augment low-level SRH.
Recent MRMS composites show the onset of convective initiation along
the cold front, which should maintain sufficient residence time
within the returning theta-e plume for further strengthening over
the coming hours. Latest high-res ensemble guidance (including WoFS
and time-lagged HRRR/RRFS solutions) appear to be capturing these
trends well and continue to depict the corridor of highest severe
wind and tornado threat across the Moderate risk zone. As such,
little change was made to the ongoing probability and intensity
contours.
...Upper OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
Several loosely organized convective bands have emerged across
eastern OH into western PA/NY. Regional VWPs continue to sample
deep-layer bulk shear on the order of 15-20 knots, which casts doubt
on the eastward extent of the severe wind threat beyond 00-02 UTC
when nocturnal stabilization will begin to weaken convection. Recent
CAM guidance suggests the peak wind threat should remain across
western to central PA/NY, which casts considerable uncertainty on
severe wind coverage further east along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Consequently, the 30% wind probabilities have been shifted west to
better align with recent observed and modeled trends. (See MCDs
#1091 and #1092 for additional details.)
...Southern Plains...
Recent surface observations show the cold front rapidly pushing
southeast across TX, OK, and southeast KS. Building cumulus is also
noted along the front, which suggests convective initiation is
probable in the coming hours. These trends align with the previous
forecast, see MCD #1090 for additional short-term details.
..Moore.. 06/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026/
...Midwest/Great Lakes...
An active and impactful severe weather event is still expected
across parts of the Midwest Great Lakes later this afternoon and
evening. Ongoing bowing cluster across southeast IA/northwest
IL/southwest WI and vicinity may continue to pose at least some
severe wind and embedded QLCS tornado threat as it continues
east-northeastward across parts of the Midwest this afternoon. There
is still airmass recovery underway ahead of this activity,
especially into central/northern IL, northern IN, and parts of
southern Lower MI where strong heating is occurring. Enhanced
mid-level west-southwesterly winds associated with a potent
shortwave trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will
overspread the developing warm sector this afternoon, and support
organized severe potential, including the possibility of multiple
tornadic supercells and widespread severe/damaging winds.
Even so, greater than usual uncertainty exists regarding
redevelopment later today on the southern/western flank of ongoing
convection across northern IL into northeast MO and vicinity. A
gradual increase in both low-level and deep-layer shear is
anticipated across this area as a 30-40+ kt southerly low-level jet
develops eastward in tandem with the eastward-ejecting shortwave
trough and mid-level jet. A mix of supercells and bowing segments
appears probable as renewed thunderstorms develop along/ahead of the
surface cold front this afternoon in a strongly unstable and rather
favorably sheared environment. If at least semi-discrete supercell
structures can be maintained, then potential exists for several
tornadoes, and multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF-2/3+) given
the enhanced low-level shear. Isolated large to very large hail may
also occur with any sustained supercells.
Otherwise, numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds
also appear likely through the period across parts of
northern/central IL into southern Lower MI and northern IN. Both the
ongoing cluster and eventual upscale growth of convection that
develops this afternoon will likely produce severe/damaging winds,
some of which could be significant (75+ mph). The northern extent of
the severe risk into WI and northern Lower MI remains uncertain, but
at least some wind and/or tornado threat will likely continue with
eastward extent into the southern Great Lakes and northern IN this
evening.
...Eastern Kansas/Southern Missouri into the Southern Plains...
Additional thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon and
evening along the trailing cold front into portions of eastern
KS/southern MO into the southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer shear
is forecast to lag behind/to the north of the cold front. Still,
around 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear and moderate to strong
instability will support marginal supercell structures and loosely
organized multicells capable of producing both large hail and
damaging winds. A large component of boundary-parallel shear will
likely lead to clustering and messy convective modes through the
evening before thunderstorms gradually weaken with the loss of
daytime heating.
...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians...
Recent visible satellite imagery across much of the Mid-Atlantic and
central Appalachians shows mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions,
with ample low-level moisture present per latest surface
observations and area 12Z observed soundings. Large-scale ascent
associated with multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs
will likely support the development of widely scattered
thunderstorms by afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the
central Appalachians. Though deep-layer shear is forecast to remain
modest, moderate to strong instability will exist with continued
diurnal heating this afternoon. This will support stronger updrafts
capable of scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps isolated
hail. Multiple clusters should eventually emerge, with potential for
organizing along outflow/cold pools, and more focused corridors of
damaging winds possible across parts of the I-95 corridor from
northern VA to eastern PA and NJ.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the Appalachians into
Mid Atlantic Friday afternoon through Friday evening, accompanied by
potential to produce damaging wind gusts.
...Discussion...
Downstream of building mid-level ridging within the mid-latitudes,
offshore of the Pacific coast, it still appears that flow will
remain largely zonal across the northern tier of the interior U.S.
through at least this period, between subtropical ridging centered
over the northern Gulf Basin and a quasi-stationary mid-level low
centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay. Across the Atlantic
Seaboard, it appears that generally modest to weak, though difluent
and splitting, flow will prevail, as the most substantive upstream
short wave perturbations pivot across and to the northwest of the
lower Great Lakes, around the periphery of the low.
In lower levels, a surface cyclone is forecast to migrate
north/northwestward into the Hudson Bay vicinity and occlude Friday
through Friday night, with the trailing cold front advancing
southeastward through much of the Mid Atlantic by 12Z Saturday.
Across the lower Ohio through southern Great Plains Red River
Valleys, the front, initially reinforced by convective outflow, is
forecast to weaken, while a another influx of cooler/drier air
slowly spreads south of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity,
through the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest and adjacent Great
Lakes region.
..Appalachians/Mid Atlantic...
There still appears a general consensus within model output that
seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content will support sizable
potential instability (including CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) with
insolation by early Friday afternoon, from portions of the
Cumberland and Allegheny Plateau into the lee of the Blue Ridge and
perhaps Poconos/Catskills. Coincident with at least subtle to weak
mid-level height falls, and modest strengthening of flow in the
700-500 mb layer to 20-30 kt, the environment may become conducive
to the evolution of modestly organizing clusters with potential to
produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.
...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains...
Moistening southerly low-level flow, in the presence of steepening
low-level lapse rates with daytime heating, may contribute to
sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the Guadalupe and
Sacramento Mountains, through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and Raton Mesa vicinity by early Friday evening. This may become
supportive of scattered thunderstorm development with potential to
produce severe hail and localized strong surface gusts.
Particularly closer to the southern periphery of the westerlies,
near and east of the Raton Mesa, shear may become supportive of an
organizing cluster propagating off the higher terrain, as a
nocturnal low-level jet strengthens Friday evening. It might not be
out of the question that probabilities for severe wind will need to
be increased further across parts of northeastern New Mexico into
southwestern Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region in later
outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 06/11/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
LOWER MISSISOURI VALLEY REGION...
...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential
for strong, damaging wind gusts.
...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, offshore of the U.S.
Pacific coast through British Columbia, it appears that flow will
begin to veer to an increasing northwesterly component across the
Rockies through Mississippi Valley during this period. Within this
regime, mid-level troughing may sharpen southwest of a lingering
mid-level low centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay, through the
lower Missouri Valley, but this may be comprised of at least a
couple of short wave perturbations, with the details of this
evolution still uncertain.
In lower levels, surges of cooler/drier air will continue to develop
southward through the interior of the U.S., with the general leading
edge reaching the lower Great Lakes through Ohio River, Ozarks
Plateau and Texas South Plains by 12Z Sunday. This may be preceded
by extensive convective development and expanding outflow, to the
west-southwest of a weakening initial frontal zone to the lee of the
southern Appalachians.
...Central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley...
Lingering uncertainties, including those due to model spread and the
extended time frame, preclude introduction of higher severe
probabilities, at least at this time. However, a consensus of model
output suggests at least conditional potential for the evolution of
an extensive organized convective system, perhaps including one or
two large clusters developing and propagating southeastward across
the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley vicinity by late
Saturday afternoon and evening.
In the wake of a weakening preceding front, it appears that
low-level moisture return may contribute to a corridor of large
potential instability, particularly across the central Great Plains
into lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau, to the north of remnant
mid-level subtropical ridging. Beneath a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air emanating from the southern high plains, low-level
warm advection near the nose of stronger surface heating and deeper
boundary-layer mixing may provide the focus for the initiation of
strongest convective development. Guidance suggests that this could
occur anywhere from north central Kansas through the lower Missouri
Valley, before growing upscale and propagating south-southeastward
through Saturday night.
It is possible that this will occur in the presence of initially
modest deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Some strengthening of
flow is possible across the region in association with the approach
of a digging short wave, but much of the strengthening evident in
the various model output is probably related to the
convection/convective feedback. Given the magnitude of the
potential instability, the evolution of strong descending rear
inflow with the evolving convection appears possible, which may be
accompanied by the risk for widespread severe wind gusts.
..Kerr.. 06/11/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
Slight expansions were made to the larger Elevated area encompassing
the central Rocky Mountains and the surrounding areas of the
southeastern Great Basin and central High Plains. Ahead of the
previously mentioned cold front dropping south through the Great
Plains, southwest/west winds of 10-20 mph will combine with RHs of
5-15% across the NE Panhandle and adjacent portions of eastern and
central WY to support Elevated conditions amid critically dry fuels
(ERCs near the 90-95th percentile). Across southern UT, above normal
temperatures supporting deep boundary layer mixing will also
contribute to slightly stronger westerly winds of 10-20 mph amid the
dry surface RHs of 5-10%. This will also support expanded Elevated
fire weather conditions farther west of the previously drawn area.
Across the Snake River Plain of ID, Elevated conditions remain on
track as previously forecast.
..Stearns.. 06/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
As ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest, broad upper-level
troughing will extend across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
regions. A shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies
Friday afternoon with increasing mid-level westerly flow ushering
low RH and gusty winds through the Snake River Plain. Enhanced zonal
flow over the CO Rockies and south-central WY will promote gusty
winds and downslope drying amid warm daytime temperatures,
continuing a broader fire weather threat where fuels approach
critical thresholds.
...Upper Colorado River Basin, Central Rockies, and southern
Wyoming...
Strong upper-level winds will overspread the region on Friday
afternoon, encouraging continued dry and breezy conditions while
surface temperatures rise 10+ degrees above normal under the
influence of high pressure. Sustained westerly winds of up to 15 mph
and 10-15% RH are expected to overlap a drying fuelscape, thus
Elevated highlights have been introduced. Localized critical
conditions (less than 10% RH and 15-20 mph winds) are possible
across portions of northeastern UT and southern WY. However, sparse
fuels preclude critical highlights, though an upgrade may be
considered in future outlook cycles.
...Snake River Plain...
Ahead of an approaching cold front, sustained westerly winds of
10-20 mph will combine with 10-15% RH (locally lower) in the Snake
River Plain, supportive of Elevated highlights. Weeks of dry, windy
conditions and minimal precipitation has inflicted curing of fuels
across the region, enhancing fire weather concerns as ERCs approach
the 80th-90th percentile on Friday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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