Mesoscale Discussion 0116
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Areas affected...New York City Vicinity into southern New England

Concerning...Blizzard 

Valid 230545Z - 231045Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall will continue from the NYC
Metro vicinity into southern New England. Snowfall rates of 1-2
inches per hour are likely with localized 2+ inches per hour
possible. Greater rates will spread north with time. Blizzard
conditions will also become more prevalent, particularly near the
coast.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 5 hours, the surface cyclone off the
Mid-Atlantic coast has deepened approximately 9 mb per objective
analysis. Bands of moderate to heavy snow continue to pivot into the
NYC metro vicinity as well as southern New England. Moderate snow
observations are beginning to occur into Massachusetts. As the upper
trough continues to intensify and become more negatively tilted, the
surface cyclone will deepen further into Monday morning. A long
duration of at least moderate snowfall can be expected. Closer to
4-7 AM EST, a zone of very favorable ascent is expected to set up
over southern New England. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are
likely along with the potential for localized 2+ inches per hour.
Greater snowfall rates will also gradually shift northward as the
system slowly lifts northeastward.

Beyond significant snowfall rates, surface winds have already begun
to increase from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Current
observations show winds gusting into the mid 30s to low 40s kts in
Long Island. This trend should continue over the next several hours.
Blizzard conditions will remain more likely near the coast, but
inland areas will become increasingly impacted by strong winds and
reduced visibility later this morning.

..Wendt.. 02/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

LAT...LON   40447378 40557434 40767470 41187464 41617431 41777408
            42057317 42257271 42327212 42307140 41997061 41757033
            41347048 40447378 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for deep
convection capable of generating lightning during the day1 period.
While very weak buoyancy may exist near the southern New England
coast, as a deep cyclone ejects northeast toward Nova Scotia, the
prospect for lightning appears too low to warrant 10 percent thunder
today.

Another region where very weak elevated instability is expected to
support shallow convection is across northwest WA early in the
period. Short-wave ridging will quickly spread across this region
and thunderstorms are not anticipated.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/23/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday.

... Discussion ...

Fast, broad northwest flow will be in place across much of the US
upper-levels on Tuesday. Embedded within this flow, a strong
shortwave trough will move from the Northern Plains into the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a low will skirt the central US-Canada
border, ending up north of the Great Lakes. Despite impressive
kinematics associated with this trough/cyclone, limited moisture and
instability should preclude thunderstorm development.

A secondary low will develop southward from eastern Colorado into
Northwest Texas, within a broad lee trough stretching from north of
Montana southward into central Texas. This low will begin drawing
Gulf moisture northward into the central US. However, the lack of
focused surface convergence/large-scale ascent should preclude
precipitation/thunderstorms from developing on Tuesday.

Across the West, a strong atmospheric river will take aim across
portions of the Pacific Northwest into northern California as an
extremely positively tilted trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast soundings across the area denote nearly saturated, moist
adiabatic temperature/dewpoint profiles, which should inhibit
sufficient instability for thunderstorm development.

..Marsh.. 02/23/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the
Tennessee Valley.

... Discussion ...

A fast moving, positively tilted shortwave trough embedded in the
broad northwest flow across the US will move from the Interior
Pacific Northwest to Iowa/Missouri during the forecast period. At
the surface, southerly winds to the east of a broad lee trough will
begin drawing warm air and Gulf moisture northward through the day
on Wednesday, ultimately aiding the development of a
northwest-to-southeast oriented warm front stretching from Nebraska
to Alabama/Georgia.

In response to the approaching shortwave trough, southwesterly
low-level winds will strengthen across Texas into the Ohio Valley
overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Precipitation will likely develop
in response to this increasing moist isentropic ascent. Forecast
soundings from the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley indicate
sufficient moistening just above the boundary layer to support up to
500 J/kg of elevated instability and the potential for a few
thunderstorms. As of now, the weak instability should limit any
severe threat with these elevated storms.

..Marsh.. 02/23/2026