No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 6 18:30:02 UTC 2026.MD 1842 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Carolinas and southern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 061806Z - 062000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms to increase in coverage
through the afternoon with localized damaging wind potential.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage though the
afternoon across the Carolinas into southern Virginia. Daytime
heating has allowed for temperatures in the mid 80s to 90s F. This
is contributing to steepening low-level lapse rates and moderate
instability. Though deep layer flow is weak, the steep low-level
lapse rates and very moist profiles may support a few instances of
wet microbursts. Overall, this potential is expected to remain
fairly isolated, precluding the need for a watch.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 08/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...
GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 36348196 38278016 38057920 37727812 37427773 37117750
34897896 33208063 33328176 33758266 35028317 36348196
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MD 1841 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1841
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 061739Z - 061945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage to increase through the afternoon
with potential for a few isolated instances of damaging wind.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to steadily increase
through the afternoon, aided by daytime heating and moistening near
the surface trough and ascent near the higher terrain. Steep
low-level lapse rates, 20-30 kts of deep layer shear, and moderate
instability will support potential for a few isolated stronger
clusters/segments spreading east with potential for wet downbursts.
This threat is expected to remain too localized to warrant watch
issuance.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 08/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...
BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39077944 42927651 44967308 44417171 42617233 38487694
38187753 38047837 37917900 38117950 38207953 39077944
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Generally isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing hail and damaging winds appear possible across parts of
the southern/central Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated strong to
locally severe gusts capable of wind damage may also occur from
parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks...
Ongoing convection in MO and along the KS/OK border late this
morning has been aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in
the vicinity of a slow-moving surface boundary. Current expectations
are for gradual destabilization to occur through the afternoon
along/south of this boundary from the southern High Plains eastward
to parts of the Ozarks. This region will remain on the southern
periphery of large-scale troughing centered over Canada and the
northern Plains, with nebulous/weak forcing for ascent evident along
the surface front. This leads to low confidence in renewed
thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening. Based on this
and trends in 12Z guidance, have removed the Slight Risk for
severe/damaging winds. Still, an isolated hail/wind threat remains
apparent along the length of this boundary, as moderate instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to support updraft
organization with any cells that can form/be sustained. A greater
signal for scattered thunderstorm development exists this
evening/overnight across parts of KS/MO as a low-level jet gradually
strengthens in this time frame. Have expanded severe hail/wind
probabilities northward a bit to account for this potential.
...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
Around 20-35 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow will exist over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast today. At the surface,
a weak trough will be located from the coastal VA
north-northeastward into eastern NY. As surface temperatures
continue to warm into the 80s with filtered daytime heating,
thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the Appalachians and
subsequently move east-northeastward into the lower elevations and
toward the surface trough. While mid-level lapse rates will remain
poor, a rather moist low-level airmass will contribute to moderate
instability this afternoon (MLCAPE generally 1000-2500 J/kg).
Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates are forecast
with southward extent into the western Carolinas where mid-level
flow will be comparatively weaker. Some of the stronger water-loaded
downdrafts will be capable of producing occasional damaging winds.
...Colorado/Nebraska/South Dakota...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist over much of the
north-central CONUS through the period. At the surface, an axis of
greater low-level moisture will exist from northeast CO/western NE
into southern SD along/east of a weak surface trough, where
dewpoints will generally be in the 60s. Near this axis, latest
NAM/RAP forecasts show a narrow corridor of moderate instability
this afternoon, with MLCAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg. Although
large-scale ascent will remain weak/nebulous across this region, any
cell that can initiate near the instability axis would be capable of
producing isolated severe gusts/large hail. Have therefore
maintained the Marginal Risk across this region with some expansion.
But, given low confidence in convective initiation, refrained from
including greater severe wind/hail probabilities at this time.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 08/06/2026
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may occur from the Mid-Missouri Valley
across Wisconsin and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of
strong/damaging wind gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms
may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast and
hail over parts of central Nebraska/South Dakota.
...Mid-Missouri Valley into Wisconsin/Upper Peninsular Michigan...
A cold front will move into the Upper Midwest during the afternoon.
Moisture return ahead of the front will maintain upper 60s F farther
north to low 70s F dewpoints across Iowa/southern Minnesota.
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected during the afternoon. The
approaching mid-level jet will bring stronger mid-level flow and
30-45 kt of effective shear to the region (stronger shear will
generally exist with southwestward extent). Initial activity will
likely be cellular with a tendency to become more linear with time.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Given the
stronger buoyancy and shear within Iowa, there is greater potential
for an MCS to develop with an associated greater risk for wind
damage. Variance is relatively high within model guidance as to
where this corridor will exist due in part to the subtle forcing.
Some guidance suggests a cluster of activity is possible during the
morning hours. This could intensify as the airmass destabilizes
during the day. Other guidance suggests limited morning activity
with storms forming along the front farther east. An increase in
wind probabilities is possible as confidence increases.
...South Dakota/Nebraska...
At least moderate elevated instability is forecast to develop as a
low-level jet intensifies within the region late Friday night into
early Saturday morning. Several CAMs and global guidance suggest
development will occur. Sufficient mid-level flow on the southern
flank of the northern Plains trough will allow for organized storms.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will support a risk for isolated large
hail.
...Northern Mid-Atlantic...
Though mid-level winds will be slightly weaker than on Thursday, the
approach of a modest trough will allow for marginally organized
storms within a very moist environment. Afternoon MLCAPE will near
2000 J/kg in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Model consensus continues to
support the potential for widely scattered to scattered storms
within this weakly capped airmass. Isolated damaging winds will be
possible.
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Given the presence of a stalled boundary/outflow, some potential
exists for storms to develop during the afternoon. Confidence on
where this boundary will be placed is quite low at this time.
Deep-layer shear will also be somewhat weak as well. Given these
factors, severe wind probabilities will be withheld, though isolated
wind damage could occur.
..Wendt.. 08/06/2026
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