WW 699 SEVERE TSTM NM 012310Z - 020400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 699
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
410 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Northeast New Mexico
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 410 PM until
900 PM MST.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A low-topped line of storms will continue to organize,
intensify, and gradually accelerate east-northeastward through this
evening. Wind damage is the primary risk, but a tornado could also
occur, and such a risk may increase this evening into/across eastern
New Mexico.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northwest
of Raton NM to 40 miles west southwest of Ruidoso NM. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Guyer
WW 0699 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0699 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 2424 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2424
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026
Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the western
Oklahoma Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 012329Z - 020200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...An increasing risk for QLCS circulations and perhaps
leading supercell tornadoes is expected early to mid evening. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible as well. A watch is likely this
evening with a tornado watch being possible.
DISCUSSION...A linear band of low-topped convection continues
eastward in the vicinity of Albuquerque. Strong mid-level ascent
will continue to spread eastward this evening as a potent mid-level
shortwave trough moves east. Lightning activity continues to
increase with this linear band. With time, this convection will
encounter upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints east of the terrain. This
will occur coincident with a marked increase in 700 mb flow across
the Southwest/southern High Plains regions. The expectation is for
there to be an increase in QLCS circulation and perhaps leading
supercell potential by around 03Z. Given the strong wind fields,
even modest convection will be capable of severe wind gusts. A watch
is likely this evening for parts of eastern New Mexico into the
Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Some consideration for a tornado
watch will be given.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 11/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33090449 33140492 33700511 34560496 35820448 36450424
36930272 36420209 35110204 34140279 33740317 33090449
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few
tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight from parts of
New Mexico into the southern and central High Plains.
...New Mexico/Southern and Central High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving through southern
California with a lead shortwave trough over far eastern Arizona and
western New Mexico. Strong southwesterly flow is present in the
mid-levels from New Mexico eastward into the southern and central
High Plains. Ahead of the lead shortwave trough, thunderstorms have
recently developed in the higher terrain of north-central New Mexico
in response to strong large-scale ascent. These storms are expected
to move east-northeastward into parts of northeast New Mexico and
southeast Colorado this evening, and will likely have a potential
for severe wind gusts.
Further to the east, a lee surface trough is located over eastern
New Mexico with a moist airmass extending from near the trough
eastward into the southern High Plains. Surface dewpoints have
recently increased into the lower to mid 60s F over parts of eastern
New Mexico, where the RAP has an axis of moderate instability with
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1800 J/g range. To the west of the instability
axis, a band of strong storms is expected to develop this evening
over central New Mexico. Short-term model forecasts have this line
becoming organized this evening, moving east-northeastward across
eastern and northeastern New Mexico into Texas Panhandle. Ahead of
this line, severe wind gusts are expected. The faster moving bowing
segments may produce wind gusts above 70 mph. Supercells will also
be possible within the line due to strong deep-layer shear. The
latest WSR-88D VWP at Amarillo has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
near 350 m2/s2, suggesting that tornadoes will be possible...see MCD
2424.
The severe threat associated with the line of storms is expected to
persist into the overnight period, with the line moving into parts
of northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas where isolated
severe gusts will be possible.
..Broyles.. 11/02/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Discussion...
An amplified upper trough will translate over the Great Plains into
the Upper Midwest on Day 3/Tuesday, advecting abundant Gulf moisture
into the MS Valley. An attendant surface low will traverse the Great
Lakes region into southeastern Canada through the week, sending a
cold front across the central to eastern states through Day
5/Thursday. Along the front, widespread precipitation is expected to
bring much anticipated relief to drying fuels in the Appalachian
Mountains. A shortwave trough will trail the main trough on Day
5/Thursday, bringing additional precipitation chances to the
southern Plains. In the wake of this system, much of the Interior
West to south/central U.S. will be under northwest-westerly flow
aloft, maintaining near-average temperatures and mostly dry
conditions. Extended guidance indicates the potential for another
shortwave trough to dive into the Great Plains next weekend;
however, ambiguity in model trends yields low confidence in the
progression of the overall pattern. Nevertheless, fire weather
concerns will be reduced across almost all CONUS locations through
the forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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