WW 431 SEVERE TSTM LA MS 012005Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Louisiana
Mississippi
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Initially isolated to widely scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms will develop across the region through mid/late
afternoon, with a greater storm coverage and organization from late
afternoon into evening, with damaging winds as the primary hazard.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast
of Oxford MS to 40 miles east of Natchez MS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
06020.
...Guyer
WW 430 SEVERE TSTM AL GA NC SC TN 011800Z - 020100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Alabama
Northern Georgia
Western North Carolina
Western South Carolina
Southern Tennessee
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 100 PM
until 800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will steadily develop, increase,
and organize across the region, with damaging downbursts likely with
the stronger storms within a very moist and unstable environment.
Some semi-organized west/southwestward-moving clusters may evolve by
late afternoon/early evening with more focused damaging wind
potential.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest
of Tuscaloosa AL to 70 miles northeast of Atlanta GA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 428...WW 429...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
06020.
...Guyer
WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0431 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0430 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MKE TO
20 S MTW TO 30 WSW MBL.
..BENTLEY..07/01/26
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC117-012040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHEBOYGAN
LMZ643-669-012040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0428 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 428
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MBL
TO 20 SE TVC TO 15 NNE HTL TO 20 WNW OSC TO 20 NNW APN TO 50 SE
ANJ.
..BENTLEY..07/01/26
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 428
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC011-035-051-069-085-101-105-113-129-133-143-165-011940-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARENAC CLARE GLADWIN
IOSCO LAKE MANISTEE
MASON MISSAUKEE OGEMAW
OSCEOLA ROSCOMMON WEXFORD
LHZ349-LMZ346-366-849-868-011940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI
MD 1423 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Areas affected...Western New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 012008Z - 012215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...One or more bands of thunderstorms may impact portions of
western New York through the evening hours. Trends will be
monitored, and one or more watches are possible to address the
potential for severe winds.
DISCUSSION...MRMS radar mosaics and GOES IR imagery show steady
growth and intensification of two convective clusters near the
Ottawa, Canada region. Regional velocity data shows the early stages
of cold pool development within the southern cluster, which further
supports the idea of an organizing convective band. Regional VWPs
are sampling mid-level winds on the order of 25-35 knots on the
northern fringe of the upper-level ridge. While modest, this may
provide sufficient deep-layer shear to promote further organization
and downstream propagation into northern NY where MLCAPE has
increased to around 3500 J/kg. Consequently, the potential for
severe winds may increase in the coming hours, though exactly how
far downstream this threat will extent remains somewhat uncertain
given the modest deep-layer shear and poor assimilation of recent
obs/trends by latest high-res guidance.
Further west, the southern flank of an ongoing MCS has shown signs
of intensification over the past 30-45 minutes per lightning counts
and GOES IR imagery. Deep-layer wind shear generally decreases with
southward extent towards the upper ridge, but latest MLCAPE analyses
depict a buoyancy gradient draped from southeast MI into western NY.
Storm propagation along this gradient appears possible based on
latest convective trends. If this continues, some severe wind threat
may manifest across the greater Buffalo, NY region in the coming
hours. Across both regions, convective trends will be monitored and
watch issuance may be required.
..Moore/Guyer.. 07/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42507890 42627912 42887917 43077912 43267901 43327877
43367822 43317765 43287727 43367670 43607632 43827620
44127624 44267618 44927524 45057480 45057367 44837340
44527346 44347360 42327701 42137752 42187787 42507890
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1422 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF IDAHO AND MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1422
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Areas affected...Portions of Idaho and Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011942Z - 012145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible as
thunderstorms overspread portions of northeast Idaho and
southwest/central Montana. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Lightning counts have been trending up across northeast
ID and southwest MT over the past hour as an upper wave begins to
shift east and temperatures warm into the upper 60s/low 70s. A
combination a modest low-level moisture and cold temperatures aloft
are supporting MLCAPE values on the order of 500 J/kg, which may
increase slightly through late afternoon as daytime heating and some
degree of mid-level ascent/cooling continues. Downstream of the
developing convection, low-level lapse rates have steadily increased
to around 8 C/km, which should support some potential for
accelerating downdrafts and strong/severe downburst winds.
Additionally, 25-30 knot mid-level flow sampled by the KSFX VWP
suggests that some degree of cell organization is possible and may
support a transient threat for large hail as well as severe gusts.
In general, this potential should remain sufficiently isolated to
preclude watch issuance.
..Moore/Guyer.. 07/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
LAT...LON 48220995 48020915 47630882 47170875 46640886 46210917
45760969 45271025 44521097 43641118 43181139 42901187
42821252 43221399 43491447 43761470 44191478 44581474
45261440 46081349 47931138 48151082 48220995
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1421 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AD EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
Mesoscale Discussion 1421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Areas affected...south-central ad eastern Iowa...northern
Illinois...and southern Wisconsin.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 011934Z - 012130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe storm threat is expected to increase this
afternoon and into the evening.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of cumulus has had several initiation
attempts with intermittent lightning across northeast Iowa. These
initial attempts are likely struggling with the remaining
mixed-layer inhibition observed by the 18Z DVN RAOB. Thus far, no
storms have become rooted, but given the expansive nature of the
cumulus cluster and repeated attempts in this region as well as
additional boundary layer heating, expect eventual storm development
from this activity. In addition, storms are likely across central
and south-central Iowa this evening within the same maximum
instability axis as ascent increases across this area. 50+ knots of
mid-level flow (per DMX VWP) will support supercell storm mode and a
threat for large hail and severe winds. As the low-level jet
intensifies this evening, low-level shear will increase. Shear will
be mostly unidirectional, but the strong speed shear, and any
additional low-level vorticity along the boundary from earlier
convection, could lead to some tornado threat this evening.
A watch will likely be needed at some point this afternoon/evening.
However, the timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the storm
attempts across northeast Iowa become rooted, the watch may be
issued soon, but if they continue to struggle, it may be later this
afternoon before one is needed.
..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 40789292 40719462 41099473 41559435 42059358 43029144
43588950 43598767 43208784 42778769 42258772 41528934
40889169 40819262 40789292
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 1420 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430... FOR WESTERN ALABAMA TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Areas affected...Western Alabama to central and northern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...
Valid 011933Z - 012130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430
continues.
SUMMARY...Watch issuance is likely across central to northern
Mississippi and thunderstorms spread west.
DISCUSSION...The potential for severe winds may be increasing across
northwest Alabama where two loosely organized convective clusters
will likely interact and grow upscale in the coming hours. Both of
these clusters are exhibiting continued re-development along their
western outflows per regional radar imagery, and are propagating
into an air mass that is very favorable for strong/severe downbursts
(characterized by MLCAPE of around 4000 J/kg as well as steep
low-level lapse rates on the order of 8 to 8.5 C/km). Consequently,
the collision of these two clusters may result in a more focused
corridor of thunderstorm development with a more robust/consolidated
cold pool and a higher potential for damaging/severe winds. 25-30
knot mid-level flow continues to be sampled by regional VWPs, which
should help any resulting cluster propagate downstream into
northeast MS through late afternoon.
Concurrently, additional thunderstorm development is noted along the
MS/AL border with more shallow convective showers noted across
central MS within a similar thermodynamic environment. Continued
convective development is anticipated with this activity with an
attendant threat for sporadic downburst winds. Severe thunderstorm
watch issuance is expected in the coming hours across
central/northern MS to address these concerns.
..Moore.. 07/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34968846 34788730 34528686 34078670 33548671 33098707
32708790 32588846 32548933 32678997 32929054 33299072
33769068 34249051 34679012 34868973 34968925 34998862
34968846
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1419 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Areas affected...Parts of the lower Mississippi Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011822Z - 012015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing in proximity to a residual
frontal zone and/or along outflow boundaries will be capable of
producing strong to severe downburst winds. This threat will most
likely remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Sporadic downbursts are evident in KPOE and KHDC
velocity imagery as scattered, but poorly organized convection
continues to develop along a residual frontal zone and along outflow
boundaries across the lower MS Valley region. With time, this
activity is forecast to spread north where temperatures are quickly
warming into the 90s within a very moist air mass. The combination
of steepening low-level lapse rates, high moisture content, and
increasing buoyancy through late afternoon should maintain, if not
increase, the potential for robust wet downbursts. Localized swaths
of strong to severe winds (most likely 40-60 mph) appear possible
with the more intense downbursts. Given the alignment of the
predominantly zonally-oriented initiation zone with the weak
easterly mid-level flow aloft, the potential for organized
propagating clusters appears limited, which should preclude a more
widespread severe wind threat and the need for watch issuance for LA
and far southern MS. Nonetheless, the potential for severe
downbursts should increase through peak heating.
..Moore/Guyer.. 07/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 29669058 29659102 29899164 30649350 31169367 31709363
32079334 32289287 32269253 31969181 31279008 31028963
30788937 30518935 30318939 30088963 29829009 29669058
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into tonight. A couple of
tornadoes are possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be
the more widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very
large hail. Additional severe storms are possible across parts of
the central High Plains, Northeast, and Southeast/Tennessee Valley.
...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes...
An active multi-round day of severe weather is expected across the
region through tonight. Early this afternoon, ongoing severe risks
will continue to focus across northern Michigan as well as eastern
Wisconsin, with a secondary round of severe storms potentially
spreading into Lower Michigan later this afternoon. See existing
Mesoscale Discussions/Watches for short-term details.
Severe potential later today will focus on a convectively reinforced
boundary, with a very moist and potentially unstable environment
along and south of it. Renewed deep convective development is
expected later this afternoon into tonight across northern Iowa and
southern Minnesota, and again into Wisconsin. A ribbon of moderately
strong mid-level westerlies, some of it MCV-enhanced, will support
organized storm modes including supercells and fast-moving line
segments and potential upscale-MCS development. Large to very large
hail will be possible with the more intense storms in addition to
wind, which may become more prevalent of a hazard (60-80+ mph) as
storm mergers lead to a couple of strong to severe clusters
developing. Some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly
along the effective boundary and/or increasing this evening as a
southwesterly low-level reinvigorates.
...Central and southern High Plains...
High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a
north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and
evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep
low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable
airmass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some
supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts
and large hail. Farther south into the southern High Plains, weaker
flow will limit overall storm organization, but steep lapse rates
will support severe gusts with the more intense downdrafts.
...Northeast...
Enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across the
Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around
3000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially across much of New York and
Pennsylvania. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts
uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong
buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear
quantitatively) will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection
capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the
afternoon, and again during the evening/nighttime hours.
...Southeast/Tennessee Valley...
Along the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered
over the central Appalachians, easterly flow through much of the
troposphere resides atop a hot/moist air mass with 3000-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE this afternoon. 12z observed soundings from Atlanta,
Birmingham, and Jackson MS notably sampled 25-35 kt winds between
3-6km AGL, which could aid in storm organization this afternoon. A
somewhat cooler thermal profile aloft was also noted with the 12z
Atlanta sounding with a relatively steep mid-level lapse rate
profile. Strong to severe pulse thunderstorms are expected
regionally, and seemingly with a somewhat greater coverage and
likelihood than a typical pulse-type scenario. The stronger
water-loaded wet microbursts will yield localized gusts of 50-65 mph
and be capable of wind damage.
...Montana and northern Great Basin...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
slow-moving mid-level trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding
the trough, around 40 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and a
weakly unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized
clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon
and evening.
..Guyer/Moore.. 07/01/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are still expected across
the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into tonight. A couple of
tornadoes are possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be
the more widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very
large hail. Severe storms also remain a concern across parts of the
central High Plains, Northeast, and Southeast/Tennessee Valley.
...20Z Update...
The main change made to this outlook was to expand the wind-driven
severe probabilities southward across portions of the Upper Midwest
based on observational trends. A belt of relatively thick cloud
cover exists across portions of the Midwest. However, considerable
clearing and a CU field, along with isolated thunderstorms, has
developed across eastern IA into southern WI, where appreciable
buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and up to 40 kts of effective bulk
shear reside. Furthermore, a few of the latest WoFS runs also depict
some higher thunderstorm coverage across eastern IA into southern
WI. As such, the thinking is that organized severe potential, mainly
in the form of severe gusts, should exist across this region through
the evening.
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with relatively
minor changes made to the thunder and severe probabilities to
reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 07/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026/
...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes...
An active multi-round day of severe weather is expected across the
region through tonight. Early this afternoon, ongoing severe risks
will continue to focus across northern Michigan as well as eastern
Wisconsin, with a secondary round of severe storms potentially
spreading into Lower Michigan later this afternoon. See existing
Mesoscale Discussions/Watches for short-term details.
Severe potential later today will focus on a convectively reinforced
boundary, with a very moist and potentially unstable environment
along and south of it. Renewed deep convective development is
expected later this afternoon into tonight across northern Iowa and
southern Minnesota, and again into Wisconsin. A ribbon of moderately
strong mid-level westerlies, some of it MCV-enhanced, will support
organized storm modes including supercells and fast-moving line
segments and potential upscale-MCS development. Large to very large
hail will be possible with the more intense storms in addition to
wind, which may become more prevalent of a hazard (60-80+ mph) as
storm mergers lead to a couple of strong to severe clusters
developing. Some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly
along the effective boundary and/or increasing this evening as a
southwesterly low-level reinvigorates.
...Central and southern High Plains...
High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a
north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and
evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep
low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable
airmass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some
supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts
and large hail. Farther south into the southern High Plains, weaker
flow will limit overall storm organization, but steep lapse rates
will support severe gusts with the more intense downdrafts.
...Northeast...
Enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across the
Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around
3000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially across much of New York and
Pennsylvania. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts
uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong
buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear
quantitatively) will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection
capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the
afternoon, and again during the evening/nighttime hours.
...Southeast/Tennessee Valley...
Along the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered
over the central Appalachians, easterly flow through much of the
troposphere resides atop a hot/moist air mass with 3000-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE this afternoon. 12z observed soundings from Atlanta,
Birmingham, and Jackson MS notably sampled 25-35 kt winds between
3-6km AGL, which could aid in storm organization this afternoon. A
somewhat cooler thermal profile aloft was also noted with the 12z
Atlanta sounding with a relatively steep mid-level lapse rate
profile. Strong to severe pulse thunderstorms are expected
regionally, and seemingly with a somewhat greater coverage and
likelihood than a typical pulse-type scenario. The stronger
water-loaded wet microbursts will yield localized gusts of 50-65 mph
and be capable of wind damage.
...Montana and northern Great Basin...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
slow-moving mid-level trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding
the trough, around 40 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and a
weakly unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized
clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon
and evening.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, as well as across the
southern Appalachians on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms
may also occur in the Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and
parts of the Northeast.
...Synopsis...
Within the periphery of an upper high centered over the TN Valley
and Cumberland Plateau, a number of weak mid-level perturbations
(some of convective origin) will progress through the northern and
central Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. At the surface, a lee
cyclone will persist over eastern MT or the western Dakotas with an
associated stationary or warm front extending east through central
MN into northern or central WI. The specific location of that
boundary across MN and WI will be dictated by the extent of
convective outflow generated by storms occurring tonight.
...Northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Midwest...
There is considerable spread in 12Z guidance with respect to
fine-scale details of storm evolution during the forecast period.
However, those data indicate a couple potential scenarios that may
unfold. The first one appears to be associated with an MCV
originating from central High Plains convection this afternoon into
tonight, which will move through the mid MO Valley Thursday morning.
Forecast soundings suggest initial storms may be slightly elevated
and rooted within a moderate to strongly unstable environment, which
will coincide with a zone of enhanced mid-level flow accompanying
the MCV. As such, the early-day storms may pose a large hail and
damaging wind risk with the potential for that activity to grow
upscale into a severe-wind-producing MCS that tracks through IA into
southern MN, WI, and perhaps northern IL during the day. Additional
afternoon and evening storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds are possible downstream from the potential MCS, along the
outflow-modulated stationary front in MN and WI.
A second, higher-confidence scenario is for diurnally enhanced
thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and
surface front across the western Dakotas, in advance of a short-wave
trough moving through eastern MT. Forecast soundings indicate the
presence of steep lapse rates and resultant moderate instability,
which will coincide with a vertically veering wind profile with
40-45 kt of deep-layer shear. That environment will support
supercells as the initial storm mode with the primary hazard being
large to very large hail. The tornado threat is expected to be
limited by relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads, which will
support stronger cold pool development.
The models indicate the initial storms growing upscale into one or
multiple forward-propagating MCSs across the central and eastern
Dakotas into eastern parts of the Midwest Thursday evening into
night with the potential for corridors of damaging winds with
significant gusts in excess of 75 mph. Uncertainty in the specific
track of the MCS(s) precludes the inclusion of higher wind
probabilities and a related level 3/Enhanced Risk.
...Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast in the vicinity of the
upper high Thursday afternoon. There is a relatively consistent
signal in 12Z guidance that storms will form along the high terrain
of east TN, the western Carolinas, and north GA with a subsequent
west to southwest motion/propagation during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Similar to the 12Z observed soundings this morning,
the forecast environment indicates a belt of enhanced easterly winds
in the 2-4 km AGL layer, which may support cold pool organization
and the potential for a more concentrated damaging wind threat.
...Central High Plains...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along a lee trough
over far eastern CO into western KS Thursday afternoon and evening.
Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and up to 30 kt of deep-layer shear
may contribute to episodic supercell structures with an attendant
risk for large hail and severe wind gusts.
...Northeast...
In the absence of a discernible surface boundary, the timing and
extent of any thunderstorm development remains uncertain. The most
likely scenario will be for thunderstorms to move into the region
from southern Quebec or southeast Ontario Thursday afternoon into
night. The presence of moderate to strong instability and 30-40 kt
of deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized storm modes with
the predominant hazard being damaging winds. Higher wind
probabilities and a level 2/Slight Risk may become necessary in
later outlooks once convective details become more certain.
..Mead.. 07/01/2026
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and
Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
...Synopsis...
One or multiple mid-level disturbances over the northern and central
High Plains Friday morning are forecast to progress into the upper
Midwest by Friday night. Meanwhile, a downstream belt of west to
west-northwest flow will prevail in the mid levels from the Great
Lakes into Northeast. At the surface, a lee cyclone and attending
trough will exist over the northern High Plains with a secondary low
pressure center over the central Plains. An outflow-modulated warm
or stationary front is expected to extend from the northern Plains
low into the upper Midwest. Elsewhere, there is some model signal
for the development of a surface trough from southern New England
into the Delmarva Friday afternoon.
...Northern and Central Plains into the Midwest and Upper Great
Lakes...
The potential for early-day storms introduces forecast uncertainty
in subsequent afternoon/evening severe weather potential due to the
location of relevant surface boundaries and extent of convective
overturning. However, by afternoon, the models indicate the
development of a broad corridor of moderate to strong instability
across the northern and central Plains into the southern Great Lakes
and OH Valley. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is most
probable from the vicinity of the northern Plains lee cyclone and
trough east along the outflow-modulated front within a zone of
forcing for ascent preceding the disturbances mentioned in the
synopsis. The instability combined with modestly strong deep-layer
shear will be supportive of organized storm modes capable of large
to very large hail and damaging winds with the potential for
significant gusts Friday afternoon into night.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Increasing height falls are forecast Friday afternoon into night
downstream from a more prominent short-wave trough progressing into
eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec. The various 12Z models offer
different scenarios in the preferred location of diurnally enhanced
storms with the best overlap extending from portions of southern NY
and northern PA to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The colocation of
moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear in that area may
support some storm organization with the primary hazards being
damaging winds and large hail.
A similar environment is forecast across the region on Saturday,
July 4th, potentially warranting the inclusion of higher severe
weather probabilities.
...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A number of models indicate the potential for one or multiple MCSs
to progress through the region during the forecast period. Vertical
shear is expected to be relatively weak. However, the presence of
moderate to strong instability may promote periods of cold-pool
organization with a related damaging wind threat.
..Mead.. 07/01/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...NORTHEAST ARIZONA...AND EASTERN
UTAH...
...Morning Update...
Poor overnight humidity recoveries and gusty terrain-influenced
winds led to active fire behavior on several large wildfires into
the early morning hours. Across the Critical risk area, daytime high
temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday,
with RH values plummeting to less than 12% (potentially less than 5%
in some terrain-favored places). Sustained southwest winds up to 20
mph with gusts over 25 mph will continue to exacerbate the fire
environment. In addition, exceptionally dry fuels, adverse weather
conditions, and aggressive fire behavior (as seen on multiple large
fires) are categorized by two Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisories
issued across much of CO and UT, far southern WY, the AZ Strip, and
eastern NV.
A few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across far northeast
NV and northwest UT into south-central ID. Forecast soundings depict
marginal mid-level moisture and MUCAPE of 200-500 J/kg amid a dry
sub-cloud layer. While fuels are less receptive where storm
development is possible, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will continue over the West with weaker
shortwave troughs rotating through. Mid-level southwest flow of
25-40 knots is expected across the Four Corners region with a very
dry airmass remaining in place.
...Greater Four Corners Region...
Sustained southwest winds of 12-20 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph amid
minimum RH of 3-15% will develop from late morning into the evening
across the greater Four Corners region. Steep low-level lapse rates
and deep boundary layer mixing will allow for gusty winds to descend
to the surface, while cross mountain flow will also allow for
stronger downslope winds on lee slopes across the region. Continued
poor overnight RH recovery will aid in longer burn periods with 7 to
15 hours of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. The Critical
area may have more locally critical conditions rather than critical
conditions based strictly on SPC's criteria. However, given the
expected duration of the elevated/locally critical conditions,
several consecutive days of dry/windy conditions, very to record dry
fuels, and recent significant fire activity, the Critical area was
expanded.
...Western Great Basin...
Locally elevated conditions are expected across southern Nevada
extending to the eastern slopes of the southern Sierra and possibly
into central and northeast Nevada. Additionally, high-based showers
and thunderstorms are possible across portions of northeast Nevada
and northwest Utah. There is uncertainty regarding thunderstorms
developing over receptive fuels, but a storm or two developing over
areas with ERCs exceeding the 80th percentile cannot be ruled out.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...Afternoon Update...
No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Exceptionally dry
fuels, adverse weather conditions, and aggressive fire behavior (as
seen on multiple large fires) are categorized by two Fuels and Fire
Behavior Advisories issued across much of CO and UT, far southern
WY, the AZ Strip, and eastern NV. The Elevated and Critical fire
weather risk areas currently overlap portions of these advisories. A
few high-based thundershowers may develop on Day 2/Thursday
afternoon across northeast NV, northern UT, and southeastern ID as a
shortwave trough passes over the region. Forecast soundings depict a
dry sub-cloud layer, 0.3-0.5" PWATs, and 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE. The
limiting factors for convective initiation are less than favorable
mid-level moisture and misaligned timing of the upper shortwave
trough; however, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out with any
storm that manages to develop near dry fuels. See the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will continue over the West, with southwest
mid-level flow of 20-35 knots continuing over the greater Four
Corners region. While upper-level troughing will continue, heights
will rise slightly over much of the Intermountain West. Weak lee
troughing will also continue on the High Plains.
...Greater Four Corners Region...
Another day of dry/windy conditions will develop across the greater
Four Corners region. South-southwest sustained winds of 12-20 mph
with gusts of 20-35 mph amid minimum RH of 3-15% is expected as
elevated/locally critical conditions begin by late morning and
continue into the evening. Poor RH recovery and the 6-14 hours of
elevated to critical fire weather conditions will lead to extended
burn periods again as the very to record dry fuels continue to cure.
Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms are likely across
portions of northeast Nevada and northwest Utah. However,
uncertainty remains on if thunderstorms will develop far enough
south over more receptive fuels, thus precluding introducing an
IsoDryT area for now.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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