Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale trough will be maintained across the West on Tuesday
with ridging remaining across the East. Several embedded mid-level
shortwave troughs will be present within this western trough,
including across the central Plains.

High pressure across much of the CONUS will limit thunderstorm
activity. The only exception will be across the southern High Plains
where some lee troughing and moisture return will be present. A few
thunderstorms may develop within a region of relatively greater
instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) across southeast New Mexico
and Far West Texas. Shear will be relatively weak, but there could
be enough flow for some marginal supercell structures. Hail could be
possible with the strongest storms, but it should remain below
severe limits. Outside of this area any storm activity should remain
weak and unorganized.

..Bentley/Thornton.. 10/27/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.

...Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley...

A midlevel trough will move from the High Plains to the Upper MS
Valley on Wednesday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper
southwesterly flow across the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley atop
modestly increasing boundary layer moisture. Vertically veering wind
profiles and effective shear values greater than 35 kt typically
could support supercell thunderstorms. However, surface-based
thunderstorm develop appears quite conditional. Surface dewpoints in
the 50s to near 60 F will be possible ahead of a surface boundary
from southern MN into western IA and far eastern NE. Cool
temperatures atop the modest boundary layer moisture will support
MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Near neutral height tendencies are
expected, and forecast soundings indicate poor low-level lapse rates
and possible inhibition in layers between the surface and 750 mb.
Furthermore, 00z HRRR/RRFS and HREF/REFS do not show a robust signal
for sustained convection within the more favorable warm sector.
While elevated storms could pose a risk for small hail, the overall
risk appears limited in the absence of surface-based storms,
precluding severe probabilities at this time. Depending on trends,
probabilities could be included in subsequent outlooks. 

...Far SW TX vicinity...

Isolated thunderstorms may develop near higher terrain within a
modest upslope flow and low-level warm advection regime late
Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Surface dewpoints in the
mid/upper 50s will aid in modest destabilization as temperatures
warm into the upper 70s/low 80s F. Deep-layer flow is expected to be
weak, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-25 kt
effective shear magnitudes. A couple of storm could briefly become
strong and produce gusty winds given steepened low-level lapse rates
or small hail. Overall, severe potential appears too limited to
include probabilities.

..Leitman.. 10/27/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS today. A robust
60-70 kt mid-level jet on the southern periphery of an upper trough
will overspread WY into the northern Plains. Surface lee troughing
across the northern High Plains and the presence of a strong
mid-level jet will support downslope enhanced westerly winds of
20-30 mph and minimum RH of 20% across portions of central/eastern
WY into western SD. However, cooler daytime high temperatures in the
50s to low 60s amid a marginal fuel environment will limit a broader
fire weather threat.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...