Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND IN THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from
late afternoon into mid evening in parts of southern Rockies and
southeast Arizona. Severe gusts will also be possible in parts of
the western Carolinas.

...Southern Rockies...
A pocket of moderate instability will develop today across the
southern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm, convection will
initiate in the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos by
afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop and move east-southeastward
into the lower elevations of northeast New Mexico and southeast
Colorado. The instability combined with steep low to mid-level lapse
rates will support isolated severe wind gusts and hail.

...Southeast Arizona...
An axis of moderate instability will develop this afternoon in
southeast Arizona. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range by late afternoon with thunderstorms developing near the
instability axis. The storms will move west-southwestward across
southeast Arizona from late afternoon into the early to mid evening.
The instability along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
support isolated severe wind gusts.

...Western Carolinas...
A mid-level low will remain over northern Georgia today. To the east
of the low, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop
over the western Carolinas by afternoon. Warming surface
temperatures in the higher terrain will result in scattered
convective initiation across the southern Appalachians. As
instability peaks and low-level lapse rates become steep in the
afternoon, an isolated wind-damage threat is expected to develop in
the western Carolinas.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 08/04/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI
INTO ILLINOIS...OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms appear possible from Missouri into central
Illinois, over portions of southeast Arizona, and from northeast New
Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...MO...southern IA...central IL...
A shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes
on Wednesday, with a weak surface trough roughly from northern MI
southwestward into northern MO. A plume of upper 60s to low 70s F
dewpoints will exist from MO into IA and IL, supporting around 1500
J/kg MUCAPE. This, combined with around 35 kt deep shear should
support scattered strong to severe storms with mixed mode. Locally
damaging wind gusts are most likely as storms congeal and produce
outflow. A few of the initial cells may produce marginal hail.

...Northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles...
Storms should form over the high terrain of northeast NM after 20Z
with a modest northwest flow regime aloft. High pressure will exist
over the central Plains, but surface winds will back to easterly and
provide moisture into the region late in the day. Strong heating and
steep low-level lapse rates will foster strong wind gusts.

...Southeast AZ...
Westerly surface winds with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints and daytime
heating will support storms over the eastern Mogollon Rim / White
Mtns, with some west/southwest propagation possible. MUCAPE should
rise to at least 1500 J/kg, with PWAT near 1.25" supporting locally
strong wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/04/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may occur from the central Plains into the
Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will build over much of the West with a large upper
low over much of central Canada. The southern periphery of the
associated upper trough will bring moderate northwest winds aloft
across the northern Plains, with various embedded features within
the southwest flow from the central Plains into the Northeast.

At the surface, areas of weak low pressure may develop over the
central High Plains, and over the Dakotas and northern MN. Surface
features are forecast to remain relatively weak, but the combination
of moisture convergence near the weak front from southern KS into MO
and moderate MUCAPE may support a few clusters of storms with
locally strong gusts late in the day.

A few stronger storms may also occur into northern MN late as a cold
front moves in from the west, but instability will likely become
elevated in nature near/after 00Z.

Otherwise, a broad area of moisture and modest CAPE values will
exist over much of the East, with weak shear. However, midlevel
southwesterlies nearing 30 kt may support a few clusters of storms
developing during the afternoon with locally strong gusts.

Given low predictability, will defer any potential small Marginal
Risk areas for later updates.

..Jewell.. 08/04/2026