No watches are valid as of Thu May 14 19:59:02 UTC 2026.MD 0718 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0718
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Areas affected...portions of the southern/central High Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 141903Z - 142100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...High-based convection will bring a risk for strong to
severe wind gusts (some potentially significant) this afternoon and
evening from portions of West Texas northward into southwest
Kansas/southeast Colorado.
DISCUSSION...Moist mid-levels atop deep, well-mixed boundary layer
profiles and steep low-level lapse rates (as sampled by the 18z DDC
observed sounding) are contributing to a broad area of deep,
inverted-v thermodynamic profiles across much of the region, with
weak buoyancy of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE (locally higher) expected by
peak heating. Latest mesoanalysis and a recent ACARS profile from
AMA indicate remaining inhibition is eroding across the region as
convective temperatures are approached/breached. Latest
satellite/radar imagery supports this, with developing high-based
convection (and a subtle uptick in lightning activity) noted from
eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma Panhandle to the west of a
diffuse dryline.
Expectation is for convective coverage to increase through the
afternoon amid continued diurnal heating, especially from the Texas
Panhandle into southwest Kansas. While only modest mid-level flow is
noted across the discussion area per regional VWPs, the
aforementioned deep, dry sub-cloud layers will promote the potential
for strong to severe wind gusts (and potentially a few significant
gusts) with convection. Modestly stronger mid-level flow may also
support the potential for isolated large hail with more robust
updrafts across the northern portions of the discussion area. Given
this anticipated severe risk, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
needed for a portion of the area.
While high-based convection may pose a similar threat farther south
into West Texas, convective coverage is currently expected to remain
more limited with southward extent. Thus, watch issuance appears
less likely farther south at this time.
..Chalmers/Guyer.. 05/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33620430 34560440 35670411 36420377 37570275 37930228
38150174 38250087 38210017 38169978 37929936 37619915
37089916 35899968 35319992 34100055 33460101 32970148
32800188 32660244 32680302 32850358 33250405 33620430
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this
afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains including Kansas...
An upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will
glancingly influence the region later today, along with an embedded
disturbance or two emerging from the central Rockies early today.
Surface cyclogenesis will occur across Kansas, while a front spreads
east-southeastward across the central High Plains, and low-level
moisture steadily increases ahead of a dryline.
Initiation/sustenance of deep convection is mostly likely to
initially occur late this afternoon through around sunset across
west-central into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the surface triple
point, and to a lesser extent, along the southwestward-extending
dryline. Beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, moderate buoyancy
with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected across central Kansas, which will
be coincident with a belt of 35-40 kt mid-level winds/effective
shear. Where storms do develop, forecast parameters will be quite
favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds
across much of central toward eastern Kansas. Other higher-based
severe storms are possible south-southwestward along the dryline.
...Southern High Plains including OK/TX Panhandles and West TX...
Widely scattered high-based storms should develop in vicinity of the
dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Somewhat higher
probabilities/storm coverage should exist across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Various forecast soundings
regionally near the dryline reflect a hot and very deeply mixed
peak-heating boundary layer, to upwards of 4-4.5km AGL/500mb, with
residual CAPE and moderately strong westerlies atop the boundary
layer. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts will be possible
where storms develop in this hot/steep lapse rate environment, with
a diminishing storm intensity through the post-sunset evening hours
as the boundary layer cools.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/14/2026
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this
afternoon and evening.
...20z Update central Plains and mid MS Valley...
Isolated convection may develop across portions of central KS late
this afternoon/evening northeast of the effective triple point.
Low-level moisture continues to rapidly advect northward across
central KS but deep mixing will likely limit the extent of the more
robust 60s F dewpoints. With moderate forecast MLCAPE (1500-2000
J/kg) amid veering wind profiles, isolated, high-based supercells
remain possible, mainly with a large hail and damaging wind risk.
Additional storms are also possible later tonight at the terminus of
a forecast 40-50 kt low-level jet across far eastern KS into MO. It
remains unclear if these storms will be robustly organized, but some
risk for hail and damaging winds may exist. Wind and hail
probabilities were expanded slightly eastward to capture this
threat.
...Southern and central High Plains...
High-based showers and a few thunderstorms have begun developing and
should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon. Weak buoyancy
(500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) atop a very deep mixed layer is evident on 12
and 18z area RAOBs supporting the risk for damaging/severe gusts. A
few stronger high-based storms could also produce marginally severe
hail across parts of western KS where buoyancy is somewhat better.
See MCD#718 for additional short term information.
..Lyons.. 05/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026/
...Central Plains including Kansas...
An upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will
glancingly influence the region later today, along with an embedded
disturbance or two emerging from the central Rockies early today.
Surface cyclogenesis will occur across Kansas, while a front spreads
east-southeastward across the central High Plains, and low-level
moisture steadily increases ahead of a dryline.
Initiation/sustenance of deep convection is mostly likely to
initially occur late this afternoon through around sunset across
west-central into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the surface triple
point, and to a lesser extent, along the southwestward-extending
dryline. Beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, moderate buoyancy
with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected across central Kansas, which will
be coincident with a belt of 35-40 kt mid-level winds/effective
shear. Where storms do develop, forecast parameters will be quite
favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds
across much of central toward eastern Kansas. Other higher-based
severe storms are possible south-southwestward along the dryline.
...Southern High Plains including OK/TX Panhandles and West TX...
Widely scattered high-based storms should develop in vicinity of the
dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Somewhat higher
probabilities/storm coverage should exist across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Various forecast soundings
regionally near the dryline reflect a hot and very deeply mixed
peak-heating boundary layer, to upwards of 4-4.5km AGL/500mb, with
residual CAPE and moderately strong westerlies atop the boundary
layer. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts will be possible
where storms develop in this hot/steep lapse rate environment, with
a diminishing storm intensity through the post-sunset evening hours
as the boundary layer cools.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
...Synopsis...
A predominantly zonal flow regime aloft will persist over the
central U.S. through Friday. An embedded weak upper-level
disturbance (currently over the Southwest) will migrate eastward
across the central Plains through tomorrow, reaching the mid-MS
River Valley by late evening. This flow regime will promote modest
deepening of a surface low over western OK/KS through the day with
continued northward advection of a seasonally moist air mass to the
east of a dryline and ahead of an inverted surface trough across the
Plains/upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along
these boundaries by late afternoon, likely lasting into the
overnight hours for portions of the Lower Missouri River
Valley/Midwest.
...Lower Missouri River Valley...
Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated by late afternoon across
central NE along the inverted surface trough where warm conditions
on the fringe of returning moisture should yield weakly capped
thermodynamic profiles. Stronger mid-level flow across the central
Plains will favor higher probabilities for organized convection,
including the potential for supercells. However, weak low-level
storm-relative winds within a deeply mixed air mass may promote
outflow-dominant convection and the potential for relatively quick
upscale growth. While discrete modes can be maintained, steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong zonal speed shear will promote the
potential for large/very large hail.
Regardless, over the past 12-24 hours both deterministic and
ensemble guidance have trended towards a more north/northwesterly
placement of the inverted trough as well as the zone of convective
initiation and downstream storm propagation. Based on these trends,
15% hail and wind probabilities have been shifted northward.
Additionally, 5% hail/wind probabilities were expanded eastward into
portions of the Midwest where strong deep-layer wind shear and
elevated buoyancy may maintain convective intensity through the
overnight hours.
...Southern Plains...
Persistent west/southwesterly mid-level flow will favor steep (8-9
C/km) lapse rate advection eastward over the southern Plains through
the next 48 hours. Despite dry conditions to the west of the
dryline, strong diurnal heating coupled with steep lapse rates
should yield deeply-mixed, and nearly uninhibited, profiles by late
afternoon. Although buoyancy values will be modest, high-based
convection over a very deeply mixed boundary layer may support
strong to severe downburst winds. Recent HREF/REFS solutions hint
that severe winds associated with high-based convection may develop
as far west as west as the OK/TX Panhandles, though considerable
spread is noted among deterministic solutions. However, a westward
expansion of the 5% wind/Marginal contour was made to account for
this potential.
To the east of the dryline, strong capping at the base of the EML
will likely limit storm coverage. However, a few recent CAM
solutions hint that ascent along the dryline may be sufficient for
isolated convection by late afternoon/early evening. 30 knot
mid-level flow over the warm sector will support organization of any
deep convection that can become sustained, including the potential
for a supercell or two capable of large hail.
..Moore.. 05/14/2026
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