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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 041640
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the Elevated risk area. Current satellite
imagery portrays high cloud cover overspreading much of the southern
Plains and portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Increasing cloud cover throughout the day is expected to deter
deeper mixing, maintaining marginal RH across the uppermost High
Plains. However, RH is still anticipated to remain elevated to near
critical this afternoon across portions of the TX Panhandle into
western OK where current surface observations depict 15-30 percent
values steadily decreasing.
Presently, a cold front is progressing across northern NE with
trailing northerly sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35
mph. Model soundings depict a dry sub-cloud layer and elevated
instability ahead of the approaching cold front, enhancing the
possibility for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across
southern NE, western KS and eastern CO. Recent rainfall, a slight
transition to green up, and expected precipitation overnight may
alleviate broader fire concerns should any ignitions occur. However,
areas where fuels remain dry, a west-northerly wind shift with
sustained 15-20 mph winds through the overnight hours could
temporarily exacerbate fire weather conditions before appreciable
rainfall arrives.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
A cut off low over the Southwest is expected to move eastward as it
merges with a strengthening subtropical jet stream south of a second
upper trough over the northern US and southern Canada. Enhanced
westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over
the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy
conditions over parts of the southern Plains with elevated
fire-weather conditions likely.
...Southern Plains...
Beneath the southern stream upper low, a lee cyclone will deepen
over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Trailing the low, a
developing dryline will serve as the eastern terminus of dry
westerly flow across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles.
Warm temperatures with westerly winds of 15-25 mph and 15-20 percent
RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels across TX/OK. This
should support several hours of elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. Some uncertainty remains on the exact
dryline positioning later this afternoon. Isolated convection is
also possible suggesting some precipitation may occur on the eastern
edge of the Elevated probabilities.
...Northern Plains/Midwest...
Gusty post-frontal winds are likely today across the northern Plains
and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud
cover will likely keep RH minimums above 35%. Still, some pockets of
drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in
pockets of supportive fuels given stronger northwest wind gusts of
20-30 mph.
...Mid Atlantic...
Gusty southerly winds and a drier than normal air mass are likely to
develop this afternoon over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Piedmont.
A strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the deepening upper low
over southern Canada could support gusts of 10-15 mph. While RH will
be below 40%, area fuels remains rather limited owing to recent
precipitation. This should preclude broader fire-weather concerns,
though some localized risk remains possible.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 041856
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Flow aloft will increase over much of the southern US Tuesday as the
southern stream upper low merges with the second trough over the
northern and central US. As the upper-level troughs deepen, a
surface low over OK will move southward ahead of a surging cold
front over the Plains, while gusty winds are expected over parts of
the eastern US.
...West TX...
The cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Tuesday,
pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into Central/West
Texas. South of the front, westerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected
along with RH below 25%. This could support some localized
fire-weather concerns. However, recent plentiful rainfall has
tempered marginal fuels such that widespread fire-weather conditions
appear unlikely. Additional precipitation and cooler temperatures
north of the front should limit fire-weather potential over the
central US.
...Mid Atlantic...
As the upper trough over the central US consolidates, another day of
gusty southerly winds is likely over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Warm
daytime temperatures and minimal moisture ahead of a cold front
could support localized fire-weather conditions over parts of the
Carolinas and VA. However, fuels remain limited and any fire-weather
conditions should be short lived, precluding highlights.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 032108
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
An upper low will transition to an open wave as it traverses the
Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag
into the Midwest and Great Lakes region before merging with southern
stream troughing over the Mid-South on Day 4/Wednesday. However,
guidance has started to differ on the evolution of the upper wave
over the Southwest, one solution depicting an upper low to break off
and reside over northern Mexico through Day 6/Friday. Despite these
differences, the overall pattern should continue to provide chances
for precipitation across the central Plains and portions of the
Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, resulting in above normal temperatures
and dry conditions to prevail for much of the western CONUS through
the forecast period.
A deep upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and an
approaching shortwave across the Mid-South should enhance dry
southwesterly flow on Day 3/Tuesday for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic, promoting widespread breezy conditions. However, an
ongoing transition to green up and recent appreciable rainfall
hinders a broader fire concern.
A cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Day
3/Tuesday, pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into
Central/West Texas as southwesterly flow aloft amplifies. On Day
4/Wednesday, the upper trough will migrate atop the southern Plains
and West TX as an area of surface convergence develops east of the
Front Range. This feature is expected to send a secondary cold front
through the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Wednesday, while downslope
westerly winds and a dry airmass persists over West TX. Recent
plentiful rainfall and marginal fuels precludes the introduction of
probabilities on both days.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026
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