|
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 170653
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will linger to the southwest of Southern
California today as upper ridging transitions eastward into the
Great Plains. This will continue to foster lingering offshore flow
and elevated fire weather conditions across portions of Southern
California today. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will continue to
shift offshore of the Southeast as high pressure builds eastward
into the Ohio River Valley. This will help maintain dry,
post-frontal flow and elevated fire weather concerns across portions
of the lower MS River Valley.
...Southern California...
A closed mid-level low will remain positioned west of the northern
Baja Peninsula, which will help maintain residual easterly offshore
flow today. Generally easterly surface winds of 15-20 mph (locally
up to 25 mph) will prevail this morning, with occasionally higher
gusts in terrain favored locations. While RH values will decrease to
around 15%-20% in the afternoon (locally lower), winds will be
decreasing through the day as the offshore-directed pressure
gradient relaxes. This will support lingering elevated fire weather
conditions this morning and into early afternoon across the Simi
Valley and Sierra Madre/San Rafael Ranges.
...Lower Mississippi River Valley...
High pressure shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley coupled with a
strong cold front progressing offshore of the Southeast will
continue to support dry and breezy post-frontal conditions across
the lower Mississippi River Valley. North-northeast surface winds of
10-15 mph (with localized gusts of 20-25 mph) and minimum daytime RH
values of around 25-30% atop receptive fuels (ERCs commonly above
the 80-90th percentiles) will continue to foster elevated fire
weather concerns from southern LA into southeastern AR and much of
MS.
..Chalmers.. 10/17/2026
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 170655
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will remain positioned off of the East Coast
on D2/Sunday as upper ridging lingers across the southern Plains and
lower/mid Mississippi River Valley. Simultaneously, a robust
mid/upper level shortwave trough will begin to approach the Pacific
Northwest coastline. At the surface, high pressure will build into
the northern Plains behind a southeastward-progressing cold front,
while a second area of high pressure persists across the
Mid-Atlantic. Recent widespread precipitation across much of the
Intermountain West, Plains, and East will largely temper fire
weather concerns across these regions.
Dry and breezy conditions are forecast across portions the
southern/central High Plains in advance of lee surface troughing and
across portions of the Southeast, including central/northern Georgia
and adjacent areas of South Carolina/Alabama along the southern
periphery of surface high pressure to the north. Poor to marginal
fuel conditions, recent rainfall across portions of these areas, and
marginal wind speeds across the Southeast are expected to limit the
overall fire weather threat across these regions at this time,
however.
Some 00z high-res guidance also suggests that southwesterly surface
winds will begin to strengthen across portions of northeastern
California, southern/southeastern Oregon, and northwestern Nevada
Sunday afternoon in advance of the approaching shortwave trough.
Guidance differs on the magnitude of sustained surface winds as well
as minimum daytime RH reductions, however. Thus, confidence
regarding an extended (3+ hour) overlap of elevated wind/RH criteria
is low at this time, but locally elevated conditions may materialize
should stronger sustained surface winds overlap lower RH values
Sunday afternoon.
..Chalmers.. 10/17/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162141
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
The upper pattern will remain fairly stagnant across the CONUS
through early next week. Upper ridging will continue over the
central U.S. as a cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coast
through Day 5/Tuesday. High pressure will build over the western
Gulf coast, promoting warm and dry conditions where fuels are
growing increasingly more receptive in the lower MS River Valley.
However, lighter prevailing winds should keep fire weather concerns
low.
Farther west, an upper trough will impinge upon the Pacific
Northwest on Day 4/Monday, increasing southwesterly flow over the
Great Basin. Upper troughing will amplify as it digs into the Desert
Southwest mid-week, potentially ejecting into the Great Plains by
Day 7/Thursday. This pattern is expected to bring additional
precipitation and generally unsettled conditions to much of the
Intermountain West.
...Day 4/Monday - Northeastern California and Northwest Great
Basin...
A robust mid/upper trough is expected to bring enhanced
southwesterly flow back into the western U.S. by early next week.
Dry and breezy conditions in advance of the trough will promote an
increasing fire weather threat over northeastern CA, far
southeastern OR and northwestern NV on Day 4/Monday where fuels
remain dry in the absence of recent precipitation. Thus, 40%
critical probabilities have been maintained across the region.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/16/2026
|
|