|
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 041528
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the previous
discussion for details.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the
central Great Plains today as a more amplified upper-level trough
digs southeastward into the West. At the surface, a nearly
stationary boundary is forecast to extend from west Texas into the
Midwest and then eastward across the Mid-Atlantic. Cooler
temperatures, lighter winds, and modestly increased RH within the
post-frontal air mass will temper fire weather concerns across much
of the central and southern High Plains. A second surface cyclone
shifting southeastward from Alberta into Montana may bring a brief
period of localized downslope winds to portions of the northern High
Plains. Sustained surface winds are forecast to remain light across
any areas that do see RH values of 20% or less, however. Given the
expected poor overlap of low RH and stronger sustained wind,
widespread fire weather concerns are unlikely at this time.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 041951
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...
The latest forecast guidance has slightly slowed the area of maximum
winds associated with the upper level trough transiting the
central/southern Rockies on Day 2/Thursday. Additionally, in part
due to the timing and curvature of the jet maximum, there is some
uncertainty as to how far east the dryline will progress later in
the day. Meanwhile, the aforementioned elevated to critical
conditions will be ongoing for several hours across a good portion
of central to northeastern New Mexico from noon to sunset local
time. A subtle westward movement was necessitated over the southern
extent of Critical area due to this trend in the latest guidance.
Additionally, the Elevated was expanded over portions of the Trans
Pecos to account for forecast guidance trending toward slightly
lower relative humidity in that area. With additional information on
fuels conditions, also added in portions of eastern central Colorado
and extreme southeastern Arizona.
Consideration was given to a potential dry thunderstorm threat
primarily in the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Limiting factors precluding any areas include the uncertainty of the
dryline placement and progression, the expected cloud cover over the
region, and the propensity for increasing coverage of strong storms.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
A deepening upper-level trough will track southeastward over the
Intermountain West and Four Corners D2/Thursday, with an associated
lee surface cyclone developing on the central High Plains through
the day. The surface cyclone will shift southeastward through the
period, with a sharpening, trailing dryline across the
southern/central High Plains. Strong sustained southwesterly surface
winds and very low RH behind this dryline will support widespread
elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the
southern/central High Plains.
...Portions of eastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado...
Dry, southwesterly downslope flow will increase on D2/Thursday
behind a sharpening dryline across the central/southern High Plains.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern New
Mexico into southeastern Colorado where the best overlap of stronger
sustained surface winds (20-25 mph), low relative humidities
(5-15%), and receptive fuels is expected. Stronger 700 mb winds
coupled with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will also support
sporadic wind gusts of 35-45 mph along this corridor. Elsewhere
across the central/southern High Plains, sustained southwesterly
surface winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-20% will support
elevated fire weather concerns across much of New Mexico, southeast
Colorado, far west Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern
Kansas. The eastern extent of elevated/critical fire weather
conditions will depend on the dryline location, while the western
extent is limited by less receptive fuels.
The dryline will be a focus for D2/Thursday late afternoon and
evening thunderstorm development, with the potential for a narrow
corridor of dry thunderstorms from the Caprock into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. Given lingering
uncertainty regarding dryline placement/movement and the potential
for precipitation from developing convection, isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights have been withheld at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 042204
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
Upper-level flow will split by Day 3/Friday, leading to a cutoff
upper-level low over western Arizona and a strong jet progressing
northeastward through the central Plains. The Arizona low is
forecast to retrograde toward Baja California through Day
4/Saturday. It's not until Day 7/Tuesday that this cutoff low begins
to move eastward through northern Mexico. However, differences in
the timing and evolution of this upper low movement are not yet well
resolved by the available forecast guidance.
On Day 3/Friday, the aforementioned strong flow aloft will
contribute to 20-35 mph west to southwest sustained winds combined
with 10-20% RH from southeastern New Mexico and west Texas through
southwest Kansas. Additionally, a corridor of higher probabilities
for critical fire weather conditions extends from extreme eastern
New Mexico through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles where sustained
winds could potentially exceed 40 mph during the afternoon hours.
On Day 4/Saturday, due to the upper low tracking south of southern
California, gusty offshore, northeasterly flow will develop across
portions of southern California. However, recent rainfall over the
last few weeks and higher live fuel moistures preclude an
introduction of probabilities.
Early next week, the upper level pattern remains uncertain due to
differences in the forecast timing and track of the upper level low
over the southwest US and northern Mexico. However, introduction of
probabilities may be necessary across portions of the southern High
Plains and Southwest.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/04/2026
|
|
