ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241823

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING
   INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...

   The Elevated area was expanded southeastward to include much of
   central Nebraska and northwest Kansas where the latest forecast
   guidance has been trending drier (15-25%) and windier
   (west-northwest 10-20 mph). Given the exceptionally dry fuels over
   the region with existing large fires on the landscape, even
   marginally elevated conditions will be of concern over this portion
   of the central Plains. An additional Elevated area was added over
   extreme eastern New Mexico through much of the Texas Panhandle. Warm
   and dry air will mix to the east across western Texas during the
   afternoon hours on Day 2/Wednesday, before receding to the west
   again as solar radiation decreases, allowing overnight RHs to
   recover. Thus, a few hours of elevated conditions are expected due
   to southerly winds of 10-20 mph, afternoon RHs of 10-20%, and
   antecedent very dry fuel conditions over much of the southern
   Plains.

   ..Stearns.. 03/24/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Modest upper-level ridge breakdown is expected to occur in the
   northern Rockies on Wednesday. This will promote a deeper lee
   trough/cyclone in the central/northern Plains. A cold front will
   begin to accelerate southward in the northern Plains by Thursday
   morning.

   ...Northern Rockies into central High Plains...
   Stronger mid-level winds will overspread these areas, along with a
   deepening cyclone to the east, will promote 20-25 mph winds across
   much of Wyoming. There is at least some uncertainty as to how low RH
   will fall on account of upper-level clouds. Still, RH of around 15%
   does appear probable, particularly in Wyoming. Strong winds will
   also occur in southern/southwest Montana, though RH will likely be
   15-25%. Drier conditions (10-20% RH) are more likely in the High
   Plains, though winds near the surface trough will be weaker (around
   15 mph). Critical conditions are expected over much of Wyoming
   whereas elevated conditions are more probable to the west and east.

   ...Central Rockies...
   Minor shortwave perturbations within the westerly flow aloft could
   promote isolated thunderstorm development in the central Rockies.
   These storms would be quite high based. While an isolated lightning
   flash without precipitation is possible, forecast soundings suggest
   that lightning production will be quite inefficient on account of
   limited mixed-phase potential.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 242141

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0441 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

   Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An embedded short wave will propagate eastward within a largely
   zonal mid-level flow maxima across the northern CONUS amplifying
   before reaching the Great Lakes and Northeast by Days
   5-6/Saturday-Sunday. A more subtle mid-level perturbation moving
   into the Southern Plains on Day 3/Thursday along with a deepening
   lee surface cyclone and trailing cold front should support a broad
   fire weather threat across the Southwest and Southern Plains.
   Farther west, an upper-level ridge builds across the Western U.S.
   over the weekend, before a more progressive upper-level wave pattern
   evolves across the contiguous U.S. for next week, likely bringing
   much needed increasing chances for precipitation across the
   Intermountain West.

   ...Day 3/Thursday - Upper Colorado River Basin and Southern
   Plains...
   The approaching mid-level short wave and an evolving surface cyclone
   sliding southward into the southern High Plains will support a dry,
   downslope regime across much of the region. Alignment of breezy
   west-southwest winds, low humidity, well above normal temperatures
   south of the advancing cold front is most likely across eastern NM
   into the TX Panhandle where a 70% critical area remains. The
   surrounding 40% critical probability area was expanded into much of
   the Upper CO River Basin where accelerated drying of fuels has been
   observed amid successive days of record/near record setting high
   temperatures over the past several days across the West. The cold
   front will quickly sweep southward from NE Thursday morning,
   reaching well into TX by Thursday evening. This should pose at least
   an initial fire weather concern for potentially active fires with
   abrupt northward wind shifts expected. North-northeast winds behind
   the front will be strong, although colder temperatures and higher
   relative humidity should mitigate the overall fire weather threat
   overnight.

   ...Day 4/Friday - Central and Southern Plains...
   A dry, post-frontal environment should encompass portions of the
   central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday. Despite cooler
   temperatures, gusty north-northeast winds and low relative humidity
   during peak heating amid very dry fuels will support at least an
   elevated fire weather threat across southern KS, OK, into portions
   of northwest TX and Panhandle regions, where a 40% critical
   probability area was introduced.

   ...Day 5/Saturday - Central Plains and Portions of the Southeast...
   A dry return flow pattern emerges across the Central Plains by Day
   5/Saturday as surface high pressure slides into the OH River Valley
   and lee troughing develops across the northern High Plains. This
   should support a corridor of pronounced southerly flow across
   portions of western KS/far eastern CO into NE and southern SD.
   Widespread rainfall associated with the cold frontal passage on Days
   3/Thursday is not expected with an expansive dry fuelscape remaining
   largely intact. Dry, post-frontal northeasterly flow should enhance
   fire weather concerns across portions of the Southeast where fuels
   remain dry amid ongoing drought. Slight expansions were made to both
   40% critical probability areas given latest model guidance
   consensus.

   ...Day 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday...
   Forecast guidance continues to suggest upper-level troughing
   developing across the West early next week. Initial surge of
   mid/upper level Pacific moisture within the increasingly southwest
   flow and daytime instability over higher terrain could bring
   thunderstorms back into the CO River Basin. However, deeper Pacific
   moisture along with the arrival of more pronounced and progressive
   mid-level trough could provide a better opportunity for more
   widespread rain and higher elevation snow to much of the West by Day
   8/Tuesday, temporarily reducing overall fire weather concerns.
   Similarly, increasing boundary layer moisture streaming northward
   into the southern and central Plains reduces predictability in
   overlap of breezy and dry conditions precluding introduction of
   critical probabilities.

   ..Williams.. 03/24/2026