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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260422

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO
   THE HARNEY BASIN...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN
   MONTANA...

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge will remain in place across the western CONUS today,
   with strong mid-level flow cresting the ridge across the West Coast
   into the northern Rockies. A dry and deep boundary layer will
   encourage downward mixing of this stronger flow aloft along the
   periphery of the ridge by afternoon peak heating. A broad area of at
   least 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent
   RH will overspread portions of the western Great Basin into northern
   High Plains, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels.
   Guidance consensus also depicts locally stronger winds across
   portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into
   the Harney Basin, justifying the continuation of Critical
   highlights.

   Another day of scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are
   expected across portions of southern Montana. However, given less
   receptive fuels in this area, especially with some accumulated
   rainfall from the prior day's storms, it is unclear how efficient
   lightning-induced ignitions will be. Therefore, isolated dry
   thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260430

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper ridging will persist over the western CONUS tomorrow (Monday).
   However, upper flow pivoting around the ridge is expected to be
   weaker compared to Day 1 (today). Therefore, wildfire-spread
   concerns are expected to be overall milder. Nonetheless, effective
   downward momentum transport of mid-level flow should occur along the
   northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies given a deep
   and well-mixed boundary layer. The latest guidance consensus depicts
   widespread southwesterly surface winds exceeding 15 mph amid 20
   percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting Elevated highlights
   given dry fuels.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 252101

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0401 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

   Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level troughing will continue to impinge of the Pacific
   Northwest with the main upper low/trough remaining offshore.
   However, mid-level shortwave troughs will occasionally rotate
   through the southwest flow aloft. An upper high will reside over the
   southern High Plains/vicinity before slowly shifting back to the
   west with upper-level ridging forecast to build over much of the
   West late in the outlook period. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms
   remain likely across the Four Corners region, but a slight drying
   trend is possible. 

   ...Northwestern US...
   Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected on Day 3/Monday
   across portions of northwestern US. If stronger flow aloft remains
   over enough of this region and deeper mixing becomes more likely
   across a broader area, an expansion of 40% probabilities will be
   warranted. Somewhat weaker upper-level flow beyond Day 3/Monday and
   overall forecast uncertainty regarding the interplay of the
   upper-level troughing in the Pacific Northwest/vicinity and the
   upper-level ridge over the Plains and much of the Intermountain West
   has precluded additional critical probabilities through Day
   6/Thursday. Extended guidance and cluster analysis exhibits the
   potential for the offshore troughing to move inland across the
   Pacific Northwest, once again bringing dry and breezy conditions to
   the region next weekend. Critical probabilities will be withheld
   until predictability increases, but may be needed in future outlook
   cycles as the upper pattern is better resolved.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely to develop across
   portions of the southern High Plains through the workweek. Recent
   fuel intel implies the environment is still quite mixed, with some
   localized areas more receptive than others. Aforementioned
   meteorological conditions for several consecutive days will likely
   contribute to further drying the fuelscape; trends will be monitored
   closely for the inclusion of probabilities in future outlooks.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/25/2026
      




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