ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050644

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of the Southwest,
   Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest on Monday - largely driven by dry
   thunderstorm concerns. 

   ...Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners...
   Short-range guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging over
   the Four Corners into the early week. Continued north/northeastward
   advection of mid-level moisture into a plume of steep mid-level
   lapse rates will result in a broad fetch from the Pacific Northwest
   into the Four Corners with adequate buoyancy for weak convection,
   PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches, and very dry boundary-layer
   conditions. Confidence in thunderstorm occurrence remains highest
   across northern CA/NV into adjacent portions of OR and ID where a
   slow-moving shortwave trough will focus ascent. More isolated
   thunderstorms will be possible with southeastward extent into the
   Four Corners region and will likely be driven primarily by localized
   orographic ascent. Across both regions, thermodynamic profiles will
   largely favor dry lightning, but 10-15 knot storm motions may allow
   for pockets of wetting rainfall. Regardless, receptive fuels will
   support some concern for lightning ignitions - especially across the
   Four Corners where conditions remain very dry.

   ...Southeast Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
   The development of a weak surface low over the northern Great Basin
   will likely support a swath of sustained winds near 15 mph from
   southern NV into central UT and northern AZ. With a dry air mass
   already in place and little to no low-level moisture recovery
   expected, RH minimums will likely fall into the teens Monday
   afternoon. Although variance among deterministic solutions remains
   somewhat high regarding the coverage of 15 mph winds, recent
   high-res ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of sustained elevated
   conditions may emerge from southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT
   and AZ.

   ..Moore.. 07/05/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042152

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   Upper-level heights will build over the greater Four Corners region
   and the Plains with a Four Corners high developing. Mid-level
   moisture will stream northward into the Intermountain West amid
   south-southwest flow aloft, with deeper moisture moving into
   southern Arizona and portions of New Mexico. An upper-level trough
   is expected to move into the northwest US mid-week, but there is
   uncertainty regarding its strength and timing. Additionally, the
   Four Corners high is likely to flatten and drift westward mid to
   late next week.

   A broad area of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is likely on
   Day 3/Monday stretching from Oregon to the Four Corners. PWAT values
   0.5-0.9 with storm motions of 10-20 knots above a dry, deep
   sub-cloud layer are expected across this expansive area. Fuels are
   receptive, especially across the Four Corners states into
   central/eastern Nevada where ERC values are mostly at 90th-97th+
   percentiles. The presence and timing of waves rotating through the
   southwest flow aloft and evolution of the mid-level moisture may
   require adjusting this area in subsequent outlooks. 

   Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely again
   on Day 4/Tuesday with a focus on the greater Four Corners region.
   The upper high will likely suppress convection in parts of the 10%
   area, but storms are likely to be wetter farther to the east and
   south of the high. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may
   develop over receptive fuels across portions of central/northeast
   Nevada into northern Utah.

   Dry and breezy conditions are likely Day 4/Tuesday across the
   Cascade Gaps extending into northeast California and northwest
   Nevada ahead of the upper-level trough moving into the Northwest. A
   40% area was introduced to reflect these forecast conditions.
   Additional 40% areas were considered across portions of the Great
   Basin into the Four Corners Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday. However,
   the forecast uncertainty regarding the strength and track of the
   upper-level trough across the northwest US mid to late next week
   precluded introducing additional 40% areas.

   ..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026