SPC AC 211231

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

   Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
   through tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   Early morning surface analysis places the center of an expansive
   area of high pressure over MO. This area of high pressure (and its
   associated continental arctic airmass) is gradually expected to
   shift eastward throughout the day as shortwave trough progresses
   across the central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. This evolution
   will maintain low-level offshore trajectories, with the resulting
   stable conditions precluding thunderstorm development. The only
   exception is just off the South Texas coast, where surface
   cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of a second shortwave trough
   forecast to move southward through AZ. Increasing low-level moisture
   convergence is anticipated near this low, with warm-air advection
   increasing throughout its eastern periphery as well. However, this
   low is expected to remain well offshore, keeping any deep convection
   over the western Gulf. Warm temperatures aloft will preclude
   thunderstorms within any warm-air advection showers that do make it
   ashore.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/21/2025

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