SPC AC 250052

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0752 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

   Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
   DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated supercell development may persist in a narrow corridor
   across northeastern Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota through mid
   to late evening before diminishing.

   ...01Z Update...

   ...Mid Missouri Valley...
   Mid-level heights continue to build across much of the northern
   Rockies and Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest.  Primary forcing for
   ongoing convective development appears to lift associated with weak
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along and east of weak
   northern Great Plains surface troughing.  Low-level moisture return
   has remained rather modest (with maximum surface dew points still in
   the mid/upper 50s F) and confined to a narrow corridor, but this
   appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. 
   The onset of radiational surface cooling, coupled with warming
   aloft, probably will result in rapidly increasing inhibition within
   the next couple of hours.  This should be accompanied by diminishing
   convective trends, but it is possible that this could be slowed
   somewhat by forcing on the nose of a nocturnally strengthening
   low-level jet.

   ...Southern Appalachians...
   As a remnant lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex
   migrates north-northeastward across northwestern Georgia into the
   southern Appalachians, modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
   are developing across the Piedmont of eastern Georgia into South
   Carolina.  This is where a recent increase in thunderstorm
   development is ongoing in the presence of a seasonably moist
   boundary-layer characterized by sizable CAPE.  With the surface dew
   points in the lower 70s enhancing low-level buoyancy and potential
   near surface upward accelerations, an isolated tornado may not be
   out of the question, before forcing spreads into cooler/more stable
   air.

   ..Kerr.. 05/25/2026

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