SPC AC 051245

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

   Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the
   Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail
   and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with
   occurrences of hail and damaging winds possible from west into
   northwest Texas as well.

   ...Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and Carolina Piedmont...
   Early morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OH, along
   a diffuse west to east oriented cold front extending from IA through
   PA and NJ. Expectation is for this low to gradually shift eastward
   just ahead of slow-moving shortwave trough. Thunderstorm development
   is anticipated in the vicinity of this low as well as along the cold
   front, forced predominantly by low-level convergence, across the
   Upper OH Valley. Lapse rates will be poor, but warm and moist
   surface conditions will still support modest buoyancy and the
   potential for strong updrafts. Vertical shear is weak so storm
   organization will be limited, but a few bowing segments are still
   possible given the potential for strong cold pools. Highest
   likelihood for a few stronger gusts will be across eastern PA and NJ
   where slightly stronger mid-level flow exists.

   Modest lee troughing is expected from central MD southwestward
   through the Carolina Piedmont. Diurnal airmass destabilization is
   anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing, supported by very
   warm and moist conditions (i.e. temperatures in the upper 90s and
   dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s). Afternoon thunderstorms are
   expected along this troughing, with moderate to strong buoyancy
   (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2500 J/kg) supporting strong updrafts and
   potential water loading. Vertical shear will be weak, so the
   expectation is for outflow-dominant multicell storms to merge into
   clusters or line segments. The hot, well-mixed PBL and resultant,
   steep low-level lapse rates will enhance the damaging wind potential
   from mid afternoon into evening. Damaging wind potential is expected
   to be more sporadic with southward extent into the Carolinas owing
   to more limited storm coverage.

   ...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains...
   Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to spread
   eastward/northeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern
   Plains, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing through southern
   British Columbia and Alberta. The boundary layer will be relatively
   warm and modestly dry, but, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in
   place, airmass destabilization is still anticipated. Height falls
   associated with the shortwave will augment convergence along a cold
   front to provide the lift needed for thunderstorm development in
   western ND after the airmass destabilizes. There should be enough
   vertical shear in place to support organized storm structures
   capable of large hail and damaging gusts.

   Thunderstorm development also appears possible farther west across
   MT closer to the shortwave trough. These storms are expected to be
   high based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts
   being the predominant hazard.  

   ...Southern High Plains into east TX...
   An outflow boundary from the overnight storms in OK currently arcs
   from east-central TX (near LFK) northwestward to near MWL and into
   west TX where it intersects a low east of LUB. Thunderstorm
   development appears likely along this boundary once the airmass
   diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Highest coverage is
   anticipated from west into northwest TX, with more isolated to
   widely scattered coverage expected farther east. Vertical shear will
   be weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm structure. High
   storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer should result in
   strong cold pools across west/northwest TX, with cold pool
   amalgamation perhaps resulting a greater potential for damaging
   gusts than farther east.  

   ...Lower MS Valley into AL...
   A very moist airmass will support diurnal destabilization and
   moderate to strong buoyancy this afternoon from the Lower MS Valley
   eastward into AL. Remnant MCS and associated vorticity maximum
   currently moving across northern LA are forecast to continue
   eastward/southeastward, with a second, smaller convective cluster
   also continuing across northern/central AL. These features will
   interact with the moist and unstable airmass this afternoon,
   supporting thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak and
   a predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode is anticipated.
   Some stronger gusts are possible via water-loaded downbursts and/or
   occasional bowing segments.

   ..Mosier/Dean.. 07/05/2026

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