SPC AC 061944

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

   Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
   of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.

   ...20z Update...
   Only minor adjustments were made to clear behind ongoing convection.
   See previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Halbert-E.. 11/06/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0956 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026/

   ...Eastern NC...
   An upper low over lower MI and an associated upper trough extending
   southward through the OH/TN valleys will track eastward today,
   providing large-scale forcing for ascent across much of the eastern
   states.  A cluster of thunderstorms that began several hours ago in
   northern SC is progressing northeastward across central NC.  Cloud
   cover ahead of this activity is limiting daytime
   heating/destabilization.  However, dewpoints near 70F and cooling
   aloft will likely lead to a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of
   around 1500 J/kg this afternoon.  CAM guidance is in agreement that
   there will be a period of vigorous convection over eastern NC in the
   19-23z time period.  Low-level winds are somewhat veered and not
   particularly strong.  However, stronger winds aloft and the
   approaching upper trough may result in sufficient organization for a
   few bowing structures capable damaging wind gusts and some hail.  A
   small SLGT risk has been added to address this focused risk area.

   ...Southeast AZ...
   A strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon over extreme
   southeast AZ, in a steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable
   environment.  While hail will be possible in the strongest cores,
   the threat appears too minimal for severe probabilities at this
   time.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z