SPC AC 170514

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1214 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

   ...Synopsis...
   In the wake of a cold frontal passage, much of the CONUS will be too
   dry and stable for thunderstorm development today. The front will
   continue moving southward along the central/southern FL Peninsula,
   where scattered storm development will be possible within a very
   moist environment. Poor lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should
   limit organized severe potential, though localized strong gusts may
   occur. Across the Southwest, sporadic lightning flashes may
   accompany weak convection associated with a slow-moving mid/upper
   low centered offshore of Baja California.

   ..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/17/2026

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z