SPC AC 071630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern
   Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential
   for corridors of wind damage.  Other areas of severe storms will be
   possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi
   westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the
   southern High Plains.

   ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight...
   Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an
   MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. 
   Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the
   80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient
   downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a
   wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent
   TN across AL to GA.  Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term
   details.  Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this
   evening/early tonight while moving into SC.  

   In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm
   development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective
   front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL.  The specific
   corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow
   progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be
   possible later this afternoon into tonight.

   ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening...
   Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface
   heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated
   thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. 
   There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from
   initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into
   the northwest TX Panhandle this evening.  Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE
   of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective
   bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km
   will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe
   outflow gusts for a few hours this evening.

   ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening...
   The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a
   strong cap.  Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow
   boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm
   development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. 
   If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells
   capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts
   for a few hours this evening.  This area will be re-evaluated for a
   possible upgrade at 20z.

   ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening...
   As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from
   northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential
   for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of
   the midlevel vorticity center.  Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in
   the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in
   vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches.  However, fairly
   widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of
   the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best
   characterized as marginal.

   ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening...
   A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in
   association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. 
   Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain
   rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected
   along the front this afternoon.  Gusty outflow winds and some hail
   may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this
   afternoon/evening.

   ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z