SPC AC 060525

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...AND THE
   WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
   evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York/western
   Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the western Maryland Panhandle.

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level short-wave troughing is forecast to shift
   east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and adjacent Ontario into
   the Northeast today and tonight.  This trough will be accompanied by
   a surface cold front, advancing eastward/southeastward across these
   same areas through the period.

   Elsewhere, low-amplitude ridging will prevail across the central and
   western U.S.  Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton should continue to
   evolve/gradually strengthen across the western Gulf of Mexico
   through the period.

   ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians...
   Daytime heating ahead of an advancing cold front, combined with a
   ribbon of low 60s dewpoints along the front extending from Lake
   Ontario southwestward, will result in modest afternoon
   destabilization (500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected).  As
   the front advances ahead of the associated upper trough, the
   thermodynamic environment should prove sufficient -- in tandem with
   frontal forcing -- for thunderstorm development to occur. 

   Moderately strong (50 to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies are forecast to
   overspread the region through the day.  Given low-level
   southwesterlies expected ahead of the front, this veering/increasing
   flow with height will be sufficient to support organized/rotating
   storms.  Initial cellular convection may thus become supercellular
   locally, with a tornado possible along with risk for large hail and
   damaging wind gusts.  With time, storms should grow upscale into a
   more linear frontal band, with damaging winds becoming the more
   prevalent risk through late afternoon/early evening.

   Later in the evening, as the front crosses the higher terrain,
   convective intensity -- and associated severe potential -- should
   diminish, given weaker instability expected east of the mountains.

   ..Goss/Karstens.. 10/06/2024

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