SPC AC 301626
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK...
...SUMMARY...
Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this
afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one
over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT
vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by
dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from
the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture
will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area,
with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing
that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains
into the southern High Plains.
A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend
eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks.
Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate
effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX
South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates,
ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across
the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may
result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in
diameter) and/or damaging gusts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
SPC AC 301710
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe potential is low, though a couple of strong storms cannot be
ruled out in the southern Plains or Northwest Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Across much of the US, broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue
as a large upper trough persists over the eastern CONUS. To the
west, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Rockies,
allowing stronger northwesterly flow to develop over the central
portions of the country. Embedded within the modest flow aloft, a
weak vort max will move from the Rockies over the central/southern
Plains. A diffuse surface front will accompany this feature, serving
as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon/evening.
...Plains...
Ahead of the weak vort max and cold front, seasonably high surface
moisture will be in place over the Plains and Gulf Coast. Remnant
shower and thunderstorm activity should be ongoing at the start of
the period, likely limiting diurnal heating through the day. The
poor lapse rates and remnant cloud cover will favor only modest
destabilization. Still, scattered storms should form and cluster
ahead of the front. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind
and hail cannot be ruled out. However, with vertical shear largely
sub 30 kt, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears
low.
...Northern Cascades...
West of the strong ridge, a weak upper low will meander off the
Northwest Coast. Weak ascent form this feature, and heating of the
air mass across central WA State could allow for isolated
thunderstorms late Sunday into early D3/Monday. However, strong
capping and the weak ascent casts some doubt on storm coverage.
Should storms form, a stray gust or two cannot be ruled out owing to
steep low-level lapse rates.
..Lyons.. 08/30/2025
WUUS02 PTSDY2
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 300723
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the central or southern
Plains on Monday.
...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will become established over
the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging remains in place across
the Interior West on Monday. Surface high pressure will be
commonplace across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well
areas west of the Rockies. Rich low-level moisture will meander over
the Plains and Gulf Coast region, serving as a primary fuel source
for thunderstorms. A diffuse surface front will sag southward across
the southern Plains as weak mid-level impulses overspread the
Plains, serving as lifting mechanisms for deep-moist convection. A
couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be
ruled out. However, the threat for organized severe appears too low
to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
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