SPC AC 020544
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today through
tonight.
...Synopsis...
Cool and stable conditions will persist across much of the country
for today and will limit thunderstorm potential. Modest moisture is
expected late tonight into eastern TX as a surface high gradually
shifts east and supports onshore trajectories out of the
northwestern Gulf. A cold front pushing south across the Plains
overnight will begin to impinge on this returning moisture across
the Texarkana region between 09-12 UTC Tuesday morning. While
shallow convective showers appear probable, consensus among forecast
guidance is that warm mid-level temperatures will limit thunderstorm
potential until more substantial cooling aloft occurs (which will
most likely occur after 12 UTC Tuesday).
..Moore/Wendt.. 02/02/2026
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
SPC AC 020633
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...East TX into the lower MS Valley...
A series of shortwave troughs will move through/into the base of a
larger-scale trough covering the eastern half of the CONUS through
the period. As this occurs, a related cold front will move
southeastward across east TX into the lower MS Valley during the
afternoon and evening/overnight hours. Despite poor deep-layer lapse
rates, sufficient boundary-layer moisture return (middle 50s to near
60 F dewpoints) will yield weak surface-based buoyancy ahead of the
front. This will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
from east TX into LA, though the weak buoyancy and limited
large-scale ascent over the warm sector should limit the severe
risk.
..Weinman.. 02/02/2026
WUUS02 PTSDY2
SPC AC 011849
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...East TX into the lower MS Valley...
A weak surface low is forecast to move across parts of the lower MS
Valley into parts of the TN/lower OH Valleys on Tuesday, as a
trailing cold front moves through parts of east TX into the ArkLaTex
and Mid-South. Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the
50s to around 60 F) will spread from east TX into northern LA and
southwest MS ahead of the front, though buoyancy is expected to
remain weak, with MLCAPE generally remaining below 500 J/kg.
Early-day convection that develops within a low-level warm advection
regime may gradually deepen through the day, with isolated weak
thunderstorms becoming possible. Additional isolated afternoon storm
development cannot be ruled out near the front across east TX,
though forcing is expected to remain weak in this area. The weak
buoyancy and generally limited ascent across the warm sector are
currently expected to limit severe potential.
..Dean.. 02/01/2026
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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