SPC AC 031249
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected today.
...Northeast States...
A progressive shortwave trough will modestly amplify as it steadily
progresses east-southeastward over the Great Lakes and
Ontario/Quebec through tonight. Strengthening deep-layer winds will
accompany this trough as a cold front also advances
east-southeastward regionally. While seasonably cool temperatures
will be prevalent, cooling mid-level temperatures and diurnally
steepening low-level lapse rates will support increasing low-topped
convection near the pre-frontal trough/front from mid-afternoon into
this evening across upstate New York, and potentially into parts of
northern New England. Some of this convection will probably be deep
enough and thermodynamically conducive for charge separation and
isolated lightning flashes. Some stronger convectively enhanced wind
gusts may also occur given 35-45 kt winds within the lowest 2-3 km
AGL. But current thinking is that organized severe potential should
remain low given the marginal thermodynamic environment.
..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/03/2025
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
SPC AC 030651
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday and
Tuesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
Across much of the nation on Tuesday, west-northwesterly mid-level
flow will be in place over the top of a cold and dry airmass. For
this reason, thunderstorms are not forecast to develop in the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 11/03/2025
WUUS02 PTSDY2
SPC AC 030808
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest
on Wednesday and Wednesday night. No severe threat is expected.
...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough is forecast to approach the West Coat Wednesday
morning and move inland during the afternoon. Mid-level moisture and
strong large-scale ascent, associated with the trough, will be
favorable for isolated thunderstorm development from near the
Pacific Northwest coast inland across parts of northern California,
Oregon and Washington. No severe threat is expected in the Pacific
Northwest, mainly due to a lack of instability. Elsewhere across the
continental U.S., no thunderstorm activity is forecast.
..Broyles.. 11/03/2025
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
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