SPC AC 051248
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery reveals several shortwave troughs
within the active upper pattern across the CONUS. A southern-stream
wave currently moving eastward across the TX Panhandle vicinity is
forecast to become increasingly phased with another wave dropping
through the Mid MS Valley, resulting in a unified upper trough from
the Great Lakes/Ontario through the southern Plains by 00Z Friday.
Northern-stream upper ridging west of this upper trough is forecast
to move eastward over more of the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies
while another quick-moving shortwave deepens as it moves into the
Intermountain West.
Recent surface analysis places a cold front from far western Quebec
southward into far western PA before continuing south-southwestward
to a weak low over the TN/NC border vicinity. Modest moisture exists
downstream from this front, with mid 60s dewpoints across much of VA
and low 60s dewpoints as far north as the Hudson Valley. Modest
northward moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this cold front
as it moves eastward today, supporting showers and thunderstorms
from the Mid-Atlantic into the New England.
...Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Northeast this
morning into the early afternoon, ahead of a weak low-amplitude
shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorms are possible this evening
and overnight, beginning along and ahead the front across the
northern Mid-Atlantic before spreading northward into southern New
England and southward into the rest of the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas. Buoyancy will be modest, tempered by poor lapse rates,
widespread cloud cover and post peak heating frontal timing.
Consequently, predominantly shallow, short-lived updrafts are
anticipated. However, given the presence of moderately strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow, any deeper convection could briefly
produce damaging gusts. Anticipated isolated and brief nature of any
severe threat currently precludes the need for any severe
probabilities.
...OK/TX...
As mentioned in the synopsis, the southern-stream wave currently
moving eastward across the TX Panhandle vicinity is forecast to
continue eastward across the OK vicinity today. Cool mid-level
temperatures will support weak elevated instability, with a few
thunderstorms expected through the day and into the evening.
Scattered elevated thunderstorms are also expected over Deep South
TX, as the southern end of the cold front undercuts a moist air mass
near the Gulf. Weak shear and buoyancy should preclude a severe
risk.
..Mosier/Moore.. 11/05/2026
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
SPC AC 050644
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the
eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
...Discussion...
An upper low will move slowly east across the Great Lakes with a
leading speed max farther east into the Mid Atlantic. Moderate
southwest winds and cooling aloft will overspread that region during
day, with a surface trough developing from southern New England into
the eastern Carolinas.
Ahead of a cold front, southwest low-level winds with 20-30 kt 850
mb speeds will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints from eastern VA
southward. Heating will be limited as rain and storms are likely to
be ongoing Friday morning from southern New England into Virginia.
Increasing large scale ascent will further expand storm coverage by
midday into the Carolinas.
A narrow plume of MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg is possible ahead of the
ongoing activity/outflow, with effective shear of 35-40 kt. A few
bowing structures may occur with locally damaging gust, or perhaps a
brief tornado. However, the primary mitigating factor will be
relatively poor low-level lapse rates.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
WUUS02 PTSDY2
SPC AC 050814
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will move across the northeastern states on Saturday
with another shortwave aloft diving southeastward across the upper
MS Valley. This will support cool conditions as high pressure
settles into the MS/OH Valleys, with offshore winds across the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts. High pressure will also exist across the Great
Basin, behind an upper low dropping southeastward into Mexico. As
such, little if any instability will be present to support
thunderstorms over land.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
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