SPC AC 020054
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds remain possible
this evening across portions of Texas.
...01z Update...
Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave
trough digging southeast across the lower MS Valley region. The tail
end of this feature extends into northeast TX where it appears to be
partially influential in ongoing strong/severe thunderstorm
activity. Slow-moving surface boundary is currently draped across
the south side of the Metroplex, extending into northwest TX, north
of Abilene. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited seasonally strong
instability with around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, and adequate 0-6km bulk
shear for organized updrafts. Later this evening, some increase in
the LLJ is forecast across the TX South Plains, but low-level inflow
is expected to remain somewhat weak farther east along the I-35
corridor. Even so, southward propagation along the instability axis
is expected with these hail-producing clusters into the late-evening
hours.
..Darrow.. 06/02/2025
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 011720
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and
southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late
afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the
expected hazards.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by
a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies
to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough
develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High
Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will
modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending
southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be
oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO
by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across
the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front
and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm
activity during the afternoon/evening.
...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN...
Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a
somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front
during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly
increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region.
Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid
60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further
west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely
to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border
vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail
will be possible.
Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into
the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The
stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the
front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side
of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will
likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of
producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores.
Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward
extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after
03-06z.
...KS to the southern High Plains...
Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO
in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east,
but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across
the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough.
Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it
spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a
corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability
from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward
late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will
be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some
organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing
segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of
increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into
western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be
limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical
shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame.
..Leitman.. 06/01/2025
WUUS02 PTSDY2
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 011915
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday.
...Texas to the Great Lakes...
A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central
High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough
over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop
eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow
aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with
weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward
into the southern Plains.
At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into
central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming
positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday
morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern
Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich
boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface
front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with
northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result,
stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO
into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will
result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and
effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to
widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI.
Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and
southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present,
but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may
be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As
the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon
and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts
and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time.
..Leitman.. 06/01/2025
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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