SPC AC 250052
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated supercell development may persist in a narrow corridor
across northeastern Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota through mid
to late evening before diminishing.
...01Z Update...
...Mid Missouri Valley...
Mid-level heights continue to build across much of the northern
Rockies and Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. Primary forcing for
ongoing convective development appears to lift associated with weak
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along and east of weak
northern Great Plains surface troughing. Low-level moisture return
has remained rather modest (with maximum surface dew points still in
the mid/upper 50s F) and confined to a narrow corridor, but this
appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.
The onset of radiational surface cooling, coupled with warming
aloft, probably will result in rapidly increasing inhibition within
the next couple of hours. This should be accompanied by diminishing
convective trends, but it is possible that this could be slowed
somewhat by forcing on the nose of a nocturnally strengthening
low-level jet.
...Southern Appalachians...
As a remnant lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex
migrates north-northeastward across northwestern Georgia into the
southern Appalachians, modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
are developing across the Piedmont of eastern Georgia into South
Carolina. This is where a recent increase in thunderstorm
development is ongoing in the presence of a seasonably moist
boundary-layer characterized by sizable CAPE. With the surface dew
points in the lower 70s enhancing low-level buoyancy and potential
near surface upward accelerations, an isolated tornado may not be
out of the question, before forcing spreads into cooler/more stable
air.
..Kerr.. 05/25/2026
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 241732
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MN
ARROWHEAD REGION...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...PARTS
OF NM/FAR WEST TX...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of
the Minnesota Arrowhead region, central Plains and Midwest,
Southeast, and New Mexico/Far West Texas on Monday.
...MN Arrowhead region...
While large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best amidst modest
midlevel height rises, most guidance depicts strong heating and
potential for at least isolated storm development in the vicinity of
a cold front across parts of MN Arrowhead region during the
afternoon. Deep-layer flow will be modest, but southwesterly surface
winds veering to west-northwesterly aloft will result in 30-35 kt of
effective shear, sufficient for storm organization. Relatively steep
lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will support isolated hail and
localized strong/damaging gusts, if storms can mature across this
region.
...Central Plains into southwest MN/northwest IA...
While forcing will generally be weak, strong diurnal heating may
support isolated storm development in the vicinity of a weak surface
trough/confluence zone from northern NE/southern SD into northwest
IA/southwest MN. Deep-layer flow will be weak, but modest midlevel
west-northwesterlies may provide sufficient deep-layer shear for
some storm organization. Favorable lapse rates and buoyancy will
support potential for isolated hail and localized damaging gusts.
...NM into Far West Texas...
Relatively widespread convection is expected on Monday across parts
of NM into Far West TX, in association with mid/upper-level trough
over the Southwest. Buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest
across NM, but generally unidirectional southerly flow within a
relatively well-mixed environment will support outflow-driven
clusters capable of localized severe gusts. Strong storms may spread
into parts of Far West TX Monday night, with a continued threat of
strong to localized severe gusts.
...Southeast...
A similar regime to previous days is expected across the Gulf
Coast/Southeast, with widespread convection expected to the east of
a persistent mid/upper-level trough over east TX. Water-loaded
downdrafts will again be capable producing localized wind damage,
with any more organized potential tied to uncertain MCV development.
A Marginal Risk has been included from the FL Panhandle into GA,
where there appears to be the greatest potential for preconvective
heating/destabilization. If organized MCV development occurs, then
there may be some severe potential to the west and north of this
Marginal Risk area.
...Interior Northwest/Northern Rockies...
Thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from far eastern
OR/WA into ID/western MT/northwest WY, in advance of a vigorous
mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
Much of this activity may be relatively high-based and disorganized,
with strong outflow gusts possible. The most aggressive guidance
regarding moistening and destabilization suggests some marginal
supercell potential across northern ID and far western MT. Severe
probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of the region,
if guidance consensus trends towards a greater potential for
organized convection.
..Dean.. 05/24/2026
WUUS02 PTSDY2
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 241922
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into
southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this
region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be
possible.
...Parts of west TX and southeast NM...
No major changes have been made to the Slight Risk area. A broad
negative-tilt mid/upper trough with multiple embedded vorticity
maxima will impinge upon relatively rich moisture and moderate to
locally strong buoyancy across parts of west TX and southeast NM on
Tuesday. Weak capping and increasingly difluent flow aloft will
likely lead to multiple rounds of thunderstorms through the day and
into Tuesday night. Low-level southeasterly flow veering to modest
southwesterlies aloft will result in 30-40 kt of effective shear,
supporting potential for organized clusters and a few supercells.
Large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest
storms. Gradually increasing low-level shear/SRH could also support
some tornado threat from afternoon into the evening.
Convection could spread into a larger portion of south-central TX by
Tuesday night, though decreasing shear and increasing low-level
stability with eastward extent should lead to an eventual weakening
trend. The Marginal Risk was expanded eastward somewhat to account
for isolated severe potential into late evening.
...Central/western MT and adjacent parts of northern ID...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day/evening from
parts of northern ID into western/central MT, in association with a
mid/upper-level low/trough over the Pacific Northwest. Moisture and
instability will likely remain modest at best, but increasing
deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms, with a threat of
localized severe gusts and marginally severe hail.
..Dean.. 05/24/2026
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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