SPC AC 141254
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected across the Upper Ohio River Valley and
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening.
...Upper Ohio Valley to New England...
A shortwave trough will steadily amplify over the Great Lakes with a
moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow across the
region. Near/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, increasing
thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon, increasing
in both coverage and intensity. Ample mid-level height falls and
around 40 kt of front-parallel effective shear could support a few
initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado and/or hail could also occur
given the relative strength of the wind profiles.
...Mid-Atlantic to southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, generally focusing on a pre-frontal trough as
well as high terrain/Blue Ridge vicinity, with some additional sea
breeze augmentations across the Carolinas/coastal plain. From
roughly southern/eastern Virginia southward, upper 60s to lower 70s
F dewpoints and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will
yield a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of
storm development. Despite weaker deep-layer shear and limited
midlevel height falls with southward extent, the strongly unstable
air mass will favor eastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.
Somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies will reside over the
Mid-Atlantic region, contributing to 30-40 kt of effective shear
amid moderate surface-based buoyancy. This environment will support
several organized clusters capable of scattered damaging wind gusts,
and some locally higher concentrations of wind damage will be
possible with any longer-lived clusters that evolve.
...Southern High Plains...
Along the tail-end of a composite cold front/outflow boundary
extending westward into the southern Rockies/High Plains, widely
scattered thunderstorms will spread southeastward during the
afternoon. Given moist easterly low-level flow and 30-40 kt of
effective shear along the boundary, a couple loosely organized
storms will pose a risk of locally severe gusts and hail across
parts of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. Additional storms
are expected along the boundary extending eastward across
northern/central Texas to the ArkLaTex, though weaker deep-layer
shear should limit storm longevity/organization.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/14/2026
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
SPC AC 140447
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NM...SOUTHEAST CO...AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some
severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest.
...Synopsis...
Broad, upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS from the
Rockies to the East Coast on Monday. A surface front will be
oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast southwestward across the Gulf
Coast states and into central/southwest TX.
...Southern Rockies/High Plains...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of
the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains in southeast
CO/eastern NM and possibly as far east as western parts of the OK/TX
Panhandles during the late afternoon and evening. A weak shortwave
impulse is expected to move over the southern Rockies while
southerly low-level flow results in modest northward moisture return
within the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Southerly low-level
flow increasing with height and becoming northwesterly above 700 mb
will provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization.
High-based convection will pose a risk for strong outflow gusts,
with some potential for a forward propagating cluster moving across
eastern NM toward the Panhandles via cold pool/outflow interactions.
Overall modest shear, weak instability and a lack of low-level jet
development will limit overall severe potential, though a couple of
severe storms will be possible.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A shortwave impulse rotating across the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest within broader upper troughing will support isolated to
scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms within a dry airmass.
Some gusty winds could accompany this activity, but a dearth of
boundary layer moisture and weak instability will preclude severe
probabilities.
...Southeast...
Across the Southeast, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of
the southward sagging surface front. Poor lapse rates will limit
stronger destabilization, but a belt of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is
possible across southern AL/GA into northern FL. Thunderstorm
clusters could produce locally gusty winds, but organized severe
potential will be limited by weak vertical shear, poor lapse rates,
and little large-scale ascent.
..Leitman.. 06/14/2026
WUUS02 PTSDY2
SPC AC 140611
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest.
...Midwest...
An upper shortwave trough over the MO Valley will develop eastward
across the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest on Tuesday. A stalled surface
front across the Gulf Coast region will suppress boundary-layer
moisture across the Midwest. Surface dewpoints are forecast to
generally be in the mid 50s to low 60s amid steepening midlevel
lapse rates. This will support MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg across
portions of the Mid-MS Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity. A weak
surface low is forecast to move across WI/Lower MI and a trailing
front will move across IL/IN and vicinity. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon. Sufficient shear
will exist for organized storms, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow
depicted in forecast soundings. Gusty winds and hail will be the
main hazards with this activity during the afternoon and evening.
Severe potential will diminish with eastward extent due to
decreasing boundary layer moisture and weakening instability toward
the Ohio Valley.
..Leitman.. 06/14/2026
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
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