478
FXUS66 KSTO 211049
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
249 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy north to east winds this morning. Besides light showers in
the Coast Range, northern Sacramento Valley and southern Cascades
Sunday and Monday, dry weather and above-normal temperatures
prevail into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current observations show some lingering wind gusts of around 15
to 20 mph across portions of the northern Sacramento Valley, with
local gusts up to 25-35 over the foothills/mountains. Breezy
winds are forecast to decrease through the day. Patchy fog may
develop across portions of the southern Sacramento and northern
San Joaquin valleys this morning (10-30% probability). Generally
dry and warming weather will continue through the weekend as upper
level ridging dominates the pattern. Daytime temperatures will
reach into the 60s to low 70s in the Valley, Delta and lower
foothills, with 40s to low 60s in the upper foothills and
mountains.

Light precipitation is forecast across the Coast Range, northern
Sacramento Valley and southern Cascades late Saturday night into
Sunday, and again Monday afternoon and evening as weak systems
move over the Pacific NW. There is a 40-65% probability of
precipitation amounts greater than 0.25" over the northern
mountains with the first wave. Overall, WPC guidance indicates
precipitation amounts ranging from 0.10-0.50" over the Coast Range
and Southern Cascades, with generally 0.10" or less in the
northern Sacramento Valley. Overall, little to no impacts are
expected as precipitation will be light and snow levels will
remain high. The second wave appears to be drier, with
precipitation amounts generally less than 0.10". Locally breezy
southerly winds up to 15-30 mph are expected as well with the
second wave, mainly across portions of the northern/central
Sacramento Valley and northeastern foothills and mountains;
strongest over the foothills/mountains.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...
Cluster analysis and ensemble guidance support dry and mild
conditions next week under upper level ridging. Highs will range
from 5-15 degrees above climatology across the region, especially
mid to late week (also supported by the Extreme Forecast Index).
Daytime high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s are expected
through the Delta, Valley, and foothills, with 50s to low 60s at
higher elevations. The NBM indicates a 50 to 85 percent
probability of high temperatures exceeding 70 degrees F throughout
the lower elevations over the extended forecast period. There is
also a 30-50% probability of temperatures exceeding 75 degrees F
mid to late next week across portions of the northern/central
Sacramento Valley (up to 40-70% on Friday). Occasional periods of
breezy north to east/downslope winds are expected at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours across interior NorCal,
except for a brief period of MVFR/isolated IFR conditions across
portions of the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin
valleys due to BR/FG and/or low ceilings until 18z Friday. North
to east wind gusts up to 15 to 25 kts through around 18z Friday
over the mountains and foothills before becoming light. Elsewhere,
light winds under 12 kts in the Valley.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$