837
FXUS66 KSTO 172036
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1236 PM PST Fri Jan 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather prevails with cold low temperatures and patchy morning
frost. Periods of breezy north to east winds Sunday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
If you are able, I hope you are outside and enjoying the nice
stretch of weather across Northern California which is expected
to continue through the weekend. In short, dry and breezy weather
will continue with cold mornings in the Valley over the next
several days. If you want to save time today, if you have read of
any of previous discussion over the last few days, it`ll be the
same just 1 day further in time :)

However if you are new here, hi friend! Ridging remains the
dominant weather feature over Northern CA with further troughing
to the east. This will keep us dry through the extended forecast
with periods of breezy north to east winds, primarily over the
Sierra and wind-prone areas over the western Central Valley. Winds
increase late Sunday night into Monday afternoon with gusts of 15
to 30 MPH expected, up to 40-50 MPH over the mountains and
strongest Monday late morning/afternoon. Chances for gusts over 30
MPH are 40-60% over the western Central Valley with 50-70% chance
of gusts over 40 MPH for the Sierra.

Additionally, cold morning lows will accompany this forecast
pattern with lows in the 30s in the Valley and upper teens to 30s
across the mountains and foothills respectively. The Greater
Sacramento Area will have around 30-50% chance of lows colder than
34 degrees with 10-35% chance elsewhere in the Valley. Be sure to
take the necessary precautions to protect pets, plants, and
people!

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...

Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis indicate upper level
ridging to be the primary synoptic feature across interior NorCal
over the extended forecast period, allowing for dry weather and
above normal temperatures to prevail. Forecast highs will be in
the 50s to 60s in the Valley and foothills, and 40s to 50s in the
mountains. Overnight temperatures however, will remain on the
chilly side at times, with morning lows generally in the mid 30s
in the Valley. Occasionally breezy north to east flow will
continue next week as well, and the NBM shows a 15-30% probability
of wind gusts of 30 mph or greater over the western Central
Valley, and a 45-65% probability over the mountains each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
Locally MVFR/IFR conditions from BR are expected in Southern
Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin Valleys from 06Z to 20Z
Saturday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected over interior
NorCal. Surface winds are generally below or at 12 knots.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$