Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Oct 21 2026

...Southwest...
Anomalous moisture will remain in place Tuesday ahead of the deep
layer cyclone digging southward offshore CA. Integrated Vapor
Transport broaches 500 kg/ms by early Wednesday morning, with the
main increase after daytime heating. However, overall instability
remains fairly low with splotches of 500 J/kg of MU CAPE available.
The risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding is non-zero, but
appears to be below the 5 percent threshold at the present time.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt