Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Oct 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST, FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA, AND MUCH OF FLORIDA...

...Lower Texas Coast...

The stalled out front over the northern Gulf will continue to
funnel moisture into coastal Willacy and Cameron Counties on
Tuesday. Guidance suggests that unlike previous days, much of the
rainfall on Tuesday will remain off the coast, with only a small
fraction of the total rainfall making it into the coast as far west
as Brownsville. For this reason, and the difficulty even with
abundant moisture to get flooding in this region, the prior day's
Slight Risk was dropped to a Marginal risk for Tuesday, which is no
change from the inherited forecast.

...Florida and Georgia...

A very slow-moving front will continue sagging south on Tuesday,
largely aimed at the northern Florida Peninsula, though some early
morning rain may still impact extreme southern Georgia. As on prior
days, any flash flooding will likely be constricted to urban and
poor-drainage areas, representing an isolated threat. It remains
possible that should a slow-moving or training storm move over a
more urban area, such as Jacksonville, that a localized more
significant flash flooding threat could emerge. Other than some
minor tweaks, mostly on the southern end of the Marginal over south
Florida, the forecast for Tuesday remains unchanged.

Wegman


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt