Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1059 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
ARKANSAS AND NORTH TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...

Organized convection will be ongoing across North Texas and into
southeastern Oklahoma and the Ark-La-Tex region, moving east
across Arkansas and into the Mid-South during the day. The best
potential for heavy rainfall will center around North Texas
initially before spreading eastward. Guidance maintains a split in
location of the 3+ inch exceedance from a relatively
hydrologically sensitive region from southwest Oklahoma into
northwest/north-central Arkansas (mainly driven by the GFS/GEFS)
and the other camp indicating higher odds for 3" exceedance farther
south into the Ark-La-Tex and southern Arkansas. There may need to
be considerations for a future targeted Moderate Risk upgrade,
though for this to occur more guidance would most likely need to
shift towards the northern solution (or consolidate towards the
southern solution while also getting wetter, as FFGs indicate much
less sensitive soils that would require a broader area of 3"+
before meeting Moderate coverage criteria).

Campbell/Churchill


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt