Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1158 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 27 2026 - 12Z Sun Jun 28 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A PORTION OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...Ohio Valley...

The Slight Risk was shifted a bit farther south than the previous
outlook to match the better the placement of moisture pooling and
upper level support. The previous expansion still looked good based
on the latest suite of deterministic and ensemble suite of QPF
combined with the wet antecedent conditions there.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Ongoing activity Saturday morning looks to settle over eastern
VA/the Delmarva by Saturday afternoon with a risk for localized
flash flooding.

...Northern Plains...

Energy shedding along with shortwave energy embedded withing the
broader flow around a deep upper trough will locally enhance
rainfall amounts that may lead to isolated flash flooding over the
Northern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening....especially in
any supercell cores and multi-cell mergers that transpire once the
LLJ kicks in after 00Z. Given an increase of higher amounts
clipping a portion of the international border region...opted for a
targeted Slight risk area in parts of eastern Montana and North
Dakota.

Bann


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt