Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
733 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 02 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 03 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA...

...Florida...

20Z Update: The setup remains consistent among guidance for a
continued threat of locally heavy rainfall in-of the eastern FL
coast with the primary concerns being urban flash flooding in-of
the I-95 corridor. Latest 12z HREF/REFS neighborhood probs remain
elevated for >2" between St. Augustine down to Homestead with the
consensus for heaviest precip between West Palm down to Miami.
Overall, not much of a deviation between forecasts with the only
adjustment being a trimming of the SLGT away from the Jacksonville
area as the prob fields indicate a very low likelihood of
appreciable precipitation in the vicinity of the metro corridor.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

Continued easterly flow of deep tropical moisture from the Atlantic
will allow for frictional convergence along the east coast of
Florida Monday and into Monday night. Heavier totals are expected
during the day Monday and across southeast Florida, where
instability will be a bit higher, with better moisture. The highly
urbanized I-95 corridor will also support widely scattered
instances of flash flooding where nearly stationary storms can
persist the longest. The inherited Slight Risk area was left
largely unchanged. Rain should be lighter across the west coast, so
the threat level will be much lower there.

Wegman

...Midwest/Plains...

20Z Update: The trends continue in the trimming of the eastern
extent of the MRGL with more of WI down through the immediate
Mississippi Valley regions of IA/MO trimmed out of the risk as well
as trends have been for a slower push of precipitation into the
immediate area leading to less overall rainfall, and weaker rates.
This is correlated well with the little to no risk of >1"/hr rates
based off the latest HREF/REFS suite this morning, enough to
warrant the removal of the risk in this general area. Areas across
the Dakotas into northern MN still remain a focal point for
moderate to locally heavy rainfall with the main prospects likely
embedded heavier echoes in the vicinity of the maturing trowal on
the north to northwest side of the surface cyclone.

Further south, instability within the warm sector over the East-
Central Plains of KS/MO down through OK/TX will provide the best
opportunity for rainfall rates >1"/hr with some of the
deterministic indicating 1-2"/hr rates over the course of late-
Monday afternoon into the evening prior to the cold front approach
from the west. Models have been keying on that area of southeast KS
down through eastern OK and north TX as the main area of interest
with the neighborhood probabilities between 40-70% for >2" with
modest probs for >3" located over northeast OK into far
southeastern KS. There's a potential for a small upgrade in this
particular zone with the current look, but want to see future
trends with the CAMs as this area is on the drier side and could
very well handle local 2-3" of rainfall with the main concern over
the more urban footprints.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

The large Marginal Risk area in place across much of the Midwest
and Plains was also left largely unchanged with this update. The
greatest flooding threat within the Marginal will be for southern
areas from Texas through Missouri, where greater instability and
terrain concerns around the Ozarks should work to raise the
flooding threat locally higher. Nonetheless the instability will
remain near the lowest thresholds supporting convection. The nature
and coverage of that convection will determine how high the
flooding threat gets. Since those parameters remain uncertain, the
Marginal remains in place. Further north across the northern Plains
to the upper Lakes, there should be very little to no instability.
However, steady rainfall will persist for far longer in this area,
resulting in more widespread higher rainfall totals, but over a
much longer period of time. Thus, the Marginal also remains in
place there with few changes. A small trim on the eastern side of
the risk area, to remove much of southeastern Wisconsin was made
due to slower forward speed expected of the rainfall shield.

Wegman


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt