Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun May 24 2026 - 12Z Mon May 25 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

A slow moving upper trof expected to amplify somewhat day 2 as it
pushes from eastern Texas into the Lower MS Valley. This will
likely help fire another round of convection in the vicinity of the
Upper TX coast, eastward into southern LA. At the moment, it
appears the best instability ahead of this next closed low will be
suppressed southward into the northern Gulf in the wake of the
active day 1 convection. This may support the heaviest rains being
shunted southward and off the coast day 2, as suggested by the RRFS
mean and the FV3LAM. There is still a lot of model spread, but WPC
qpf has trended south, with the heaviest offshore. Subsequently,
the previous slight risk area has been trimmed on the north end,
confined to the far Upper TX coast into southwest LA. There may be
overlap of the day 1 and day 2 heavy rain areas over the Upper TX
coast into southwest LA. However, at the moment, the risk level was
maintained as slight as there is still model spread with the day 2
heaviest qpf axis.

No significant changes made to the previous broad marginal risk
area extending northeastward from the Central Gulf Coast, across
the South and into the Southern to Central Appalachians.  Similar
to the day 1 period, there will continue to be an axis of much
above average PW values stretching across these areas, with
embedded shortwaves in the broad southwesterly mid to upper level
flow, supporting widespread scattered convection, locally heavy
rains and isolated runoff issues.

Oravec


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt