Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 06 2026 - 12Z Fri Aug 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND
EAST...

...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley...

Organized convection is expected to fire up along the southward
moving cold front. During the overnight hours, moist, southerly
flow will be increasing over the frontal boundary which will lead
to locally heavy rainfall, potentially accumulation around 2.5
inches.

...Lower Lakes, Ohio Valley into the Northern Mid-Atlantic...

A slow-moving frontal boundary expected to persist as shortwave
energy track east along the southern edge of the Westerlies,
helping to accentuate lift in the high PW axis in the vicinity of
this front. Moderate to locally heavy rain totals expected with
hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" possible, supporting at least
isolated runoff issues in urban areas and places with some degree
of soil saturation.

...Southern to Central Appalachians...

A broad Marginal Risk covers the Central to Southern Appalachians
for widespread scattered convection. Lasted guidance continues to
have a fair amount of spread in QPF amounts and placement of the
highest accumulations. Although the details remain uncertain, PW
values are expected to remain in the 1.5-1.75"+ range so hourly
rain amounts upwards of 2.5" could lead to runoff issues,
particularly in urban areas and within sharp relief.

...Southwest/Southern High Plains...

Monsoonal convection will continue through this period thus the
Marginal Risk was maintained for much of the Southwest and Southern
Rockies. While there is continued low confidence with details,
locally heavy rains with hourly amounts up to 2" could lead to
isolated runoff issues.

Campbell


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt