Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1136 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 05 2026 - 12Z Sun Sep 06 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

...Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic...

A lower-end Slight was introduced with this update for
eastern/coastal North Carolina. A back-door cold front will make
steady progress southward down the Delmarva Peninsula today. Ahead
of the front in eastern North Carolina, multiple rounds of storms
are possible as instability maximizes in the area ahead of the
front. Sea breeze fronts are likely to be the predominant forcing
for any storms during the early to mid-afternoon. Then as the front
approaches in the late afternoon and evening, a second much more
widespread area of storms will impact the area. While soils there
are dry currently, expect a round of storms today to help saturate
the soils ahead of this Day 2/Saturday round. This nudges the area
into the low-end Slight category.

Further west into the Ohio Valley, storms along the western
extension of the front will also push southward with time. The
front will be much slower-moving to the west of the Appalachians.
Any associated storms impacting the Ohio Valley may produce
localized flash flooding in urban areas and other low-lying and
flood prone locales.

...Gulf Coast...

Another round of typical afternoon convection may cause localized
flash flooding in urban and flood prone areas. Once again, most
forcings for the storms will be localized, such as sea breeze or
old outflow boundaries. An abundance of moisture, with PWATs over 2
inches over a large areas will support any storms being capable of
very heavy rainfall. Generally flat terrain with sandy soils should
largely hinder any flooding to any urbanized areas.

...Southwest...

A Marginal Risk covers from southeastern Arizona across much of
New Mexico and into far southern Colorado. Storms Saturday
afternoon should largely be confined to the slopes of mountain
ranges. This should keep any resultant flash flooding localized.

Wegman


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt