Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 26 2026 - 12Z Sun Sep 27 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast into Southern New England...
As a powerful nor'easter continues to approach and then stall east
of New Jersey and south of Long Island, the potential for heavy
rainfall is likely to increases substantially along portions of the
northern Mid-Altantic to southern New England coasts. The system
will bring a generally prevailing southeast to easterly flow,
supporting a substantial influx of moisture into parts of southern
New England, southern New York, and New Jersey. Increasing
hydrologic concerns are expected. In addition to an increasing
threat for flooding in urbanized and poor drainage areas, this
heavy rain may also exacerbate ongoing coastal flooding. The
Slight Risk highlights the areas where the general model consensus
shows widespread amounts of 1-3 inches during the period.

...Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Rainfall developing late in the Day 1 period, may continue into
late Saturday morning across parts of Iowa and southern Minnesota.
Expect a diminishing threat for heavy to excessive rain by late
morning, followed a potential return later in the day centered farther
to the southwest. While confidence is limited, there remains some
signal in the guidance for storms developing back across across
parts of the central Plains along a strengthening low level jet and
axis of increasing instability and moisture.

...West Texas...
Weak mid-level energy interacting with an uptick in low level
moisture may produce some additional localized heavy amounts,
impacting the more sensitive areas of West Texas around the Davis
Mountains and Stockton Plateau. Therefore, a small Marginal Risk
was added.

Pereira


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt