Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jul 25 2026 - 12Z Sun Jul 26 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS...PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND THE SOUTHWEST...

...Southeast through the Tennessee Valley...

Along and in the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary,
plentiful moisture will be in place. The main focus will be across
the eastern Carolinas where guidance continues to point toward
heavy rainfall continuing from the day one period. Hi-res guidance
points to localized 2-4 inch totals with higher rain rates likely
as well. The Slight Risk was maintained along the coastal areas for
scattered instances of flash flooding.

Over portions of Arkansas, the 12 UTC guidance today showed
increasing agreement with a complex of thunderstorms developing
Saturday with slow moving or repeating rounds of heavy rainfall.
Across the board, there was a general uptick in the QPF totals with
the HREF neighborhood probabilities for 3-5 inches above 80
percent. HREF and REFS probs also have trended higher for hourly
totals in excess of 2-3" at times 12Z-18Z. Some concern for some
very localized extreme rainfall given slow storm motions. For these
reasons, a Slight Risk was introduced.

...Southwest...

The monsoon will recharge/reset across the Four Corners on Saturday
with an uptick in coverage and intensity of rainfall across the
region. QPF amounts did trend up overall and PW values are above
the 90th percentile. Guidance points toward a MCV in the vicinity
becoming a key player in enhancing the rainfall and leading to
greater/higher rain rates. The Slight Risk was maintained with some
adjustments to the latest QPF and across west-central NM, the risk
does lean toward the higher end of the Slight Risk probability
range.

Taylor/Bann


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt