Excessive Rainfall Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
901 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 02 2026 - 12Z Sat Oct 03 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...

..20z Update..

The main change in the ERO forecast across Texas was to expand the
Slight Risk northward to encompass the Dallas-Fort Worth metro
region. Convection is likely to be ongoing in the morning hours
across the I-35 corridor from central Texas, including parts of the
Hill Country, to southern Texas and the Rio Grande as storms
reform overnight into the early morning along and ahead of a
quasi- stationary frontal boundary. Afternoon guidance shows an
additional 1-3 inches of rainfall from thunderstorms that form over
central and southern Texas with instability on the order of
500-2000 J/Kg, PWATS over 2 inches, and a stalled front nearby
serving as a source of lift. This rain will fall over areas that
will have received several inches of rain today and have lowered
flash flood guidance exceedance values. This will increase the
likelihood of observing impacts from excessive rainfall.

Across the Southeast,the Marginal Risk was trimmed out of much of
interior Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The edit was made in
response to lowering QPF amounts in model guidance. The Marginal
Risk ERO along the immediate Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the
Florida Panhandle remains on track as tropical moisture lifts
northward into the region and supports 1-2 inch hourly rainfall
rates with an isolated flash flood risk.

Wilder

...Previous Discussion...

The frontal boundary will be lingering in the region to provide
one last round of appreciable rainfall before conditions improve
moving into the weekend. An Additional 2-4" of rainfall possible from
Laredo to McAllen and areas just inland with a secondary max
possible over east-central Texas, mainly just east of the I-35 as
the front finally moves through on Friday morning. A Slight Risk
area cover much of South Texas, eastern portions of the Hill
Country and parts of eastern Texas.

Farther north and east, the cold front will continue to advance
southeast through the Ohio Valley, with some potential for heavy
rain along and ahead of the boundary. Supported by deep southerly
flow along the western extent of the subtropical ridge, guidance
continues to show a broadening pool of anomalous moisture spreading
from the Gulf Coast into this boundary. Mid- level energy embedded
within the flow may help produce areas of heavy rain, with some
guidance indicating heavy amounts along the Gulf Coast from
Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle this period. A broad Marginal
spans from Texas across the Gulf to western Florida and then
northeast to Ohio and Kentucky. These areas will likely see some
heavier rainfall rates >2"/hr considering the environment and
available instability in the area, however the FFG's are much
higher in these zones with the most notable areas of impact in the
more urbanized areas along the Gulf coast from Panama City over to
Galveston.

Campbell/Kleebauer


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt