Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
743 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE MID-SOUTH...

20Z Update...
Adjustments to the outlook areas were based in part
on the HREF/RRFS neighborhood probabilities, with the Slight Risk
adjusted to generally coincide with the high probabilities for
accumulations exceeding 3 inches that were centered from the
ArkLaTex into the Mid South. However, the area was extended a
little farther south of the higher probabilities to account for
the typical model northerly bias, as well as some of the global
deterministic runs, including the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian, which
presented an axis of heavier amounts a little south of the hi-res
consensus.

Pereira

Previous Discussion...
A mid-latitude cyclone develops and deepens beneath a PVA over the
Southern/Central Plains Friday night into Saturday. This system
will combine two separate moisture regimes: one from the
subtropical Pacific and one from the Gulf of Mexico to produce
scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains, Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio
Valleys.

The slight and marginal risk areas were expanded from what was
depicted on our previous issuance. This was based on a broader qpf
footprint signal in the latest guidance. Some showers and
thunderstorms from today's excessive rainfall threat will shift
into Missouri and the Midwest today, while the main threat develops
within the warm sector to the south.

A line of convection is expected to develop over the ArkLaTex this
evening and propagate eastward through the Lower Mississippi
Valley, where favorable jet dynamics (strong LLJ 30-40kts and
strong upper level divergence) could produce efficient rain rates.
PWATs will also be 2-3 stndv above normal (90th percentile) from
eastern Texas to northeastern Arkansas, where the current slight
risk is in place. It's worth noting that the Euro has a slightly
more southerly focused QPF footprint than the GFS and our current
slight risk area depict.

Kebede


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt