Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1154 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 02 2026 - 12Z Wed Jun 03 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS INTO NEW MEXICO...

...West Texas into New Mexico...
By Tuesday, the latest model guidance suggests greater moisture
will expand westward toward the region (compared to today) with PW
anomalies approaching 1.5 to 2 std deviations above normal. Another
round of terrain driven convection is expected that spreads east
across the area. Overall, pockets of 1 to 2 inches are possible
with resulting isolated/scattered flash flooding, particularly for
any sensitive locations such as burn scars and steeper terrain.

...Great Plains...
Large scale forcing for ascent across the High Plains will work
with an increasing amount of low level moisture to produce several
clusters of thunderstorms during the period capable of producing
heavy rainfall - one area of concern is across eastern to central
Kansas where the latest guidance has pointed toward the potential
for several repeating clusters of intense rain rates. Some of this
additional rainfall may fall on areas expected to see heavy
rainfall today. A second area of concern is the Northern Plains
where there is likely to be better forcing with the proximity to
the mid/upper level feature. Here, moisture isn't as high and storm
motions may be faster, but potential exists for intense rain rates
and locally heavy rainfall. Both of these areas (Dakotas and
western/central KS) may need upgrades to Slight Risk if trends
continue with future model cycles but for now, have maintained the
Marginal given some of the uncertainty heading into Tuesday.

...North Florida through the Gulf Coast...
A cold front will slowly advance southward across the region during
the day Tuesday, with copious amounts of moisture pooling along and
ahead of it. Thunderstorms are likely to develop, particularly
focused on the Florida Panhandle to northeast Florida where the
latest guidance points to the potential of 1-3" locally. Localized
/ isolated flash flooding will be possible due to the expected
intense rain rates and overall slower storm motions.

Taylor


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt