Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
441 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 14 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...Texas and Central Gulf Coast...
The Slight risk has been expanded deeper into TX with this update.
Embedded shortwave energy is forecast to migrate westward
underneath a sprawling upper level ridge centered over the Northern
Plains. In the low levels we will see increasing southerly flow
and moisture transport. However, with northerly flow prevailing
aloft, cloud layer mean winds will become weak. Corfidi vectors
will also be oriented north to south, opposite the lower cloud
layer flow...which supports some backbuilding and training threat.
PW values are forecast to exceed 2" over much of central and
eastern TX, with values potentially topping 2.25" over east TX.
Some instances of flash flooding appear likely in this setup.

A favorable synoptic and mesoscale setup for training and
backbuilding is forecast to align along the central Gulf Coast.
Enhanced west to northwesterly low level flow south of the
persistent shortwave/low over the TN/GA vicinity will converge with
west-southwesterly inflow off the Gulf. This configuration is
conducive for upwind propagation and some training convection.
Based on latest model guidance, this threat may remain confined
pretty close to the coast. A very moist airmass with PWs around
2.25" will support heavy rainfall rates.

...Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic...
A broad Marginal risk remains from TN into the Southeast and
southern Mid-Atlantic. Similar to day 1, a lingering shortwave and
closed low will continue to interact with a a backdoor front. Model
guidance show some spread regarding the exact positioning of these
features and where the primary axis of instability will reside. An
embedded Slight risk upgrade may eventually be needed as these
mesoscale details clarify. At a minimum, localized flash flooding
will occur, but the potential exists for a more concentrated flash
flood threat to materialize. North GA into SC currently appear most
at risk, but will see how todays convection evolves and what the
new high res model show.

...Southwest...
A Marginal risk is maintained from southern NM into AZ, southeast
CA and southern NV. Deep monsoonal moisture will continue to push
northwestward with isolated to scattered convection expected to
result in at least a localized flash food threat.

Chenard


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt