Excessive Rainfall Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...

Guidance trends in the 12z cycle led to further suppression of the
Marginal Risk to the immediate Middle and Upper TX coasts as well
as the southwest LA coast around to the mouth of the Atchafalaya
Basin of south-central LA. Precipitable water values, instability,
and the effective bulk shear forecast still support the idea of
heavy rainfall, but there's an increasing risk that it could occur
offshore. Hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" remain
possible. Should the south to southeast model trend continue, the
Marginal Risk area could be dropped on later cycles.

Roth


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt