Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Oct 19 2026

..MARGINAL RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXIST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...

North Carolina Outer Banks...
There will be increasing chances for heavy rainfall along the North
Carolina as a Nor'easter develops off-shore. The 00Z guidance
tended more off-shore than the previous runs but the magnitude of
the east-west spread in the placement of the low suggests
maintaining the Marginal Risk is prudent.

South Florida...
A well defined cold front is expected to press southward before
stalling south of Florida late tomorrow night or early Monday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing downpour
will be focused in vicinity of the front...especially in the
afternoon and evening where moisture flux convergence is maximized
by moderate post- frontal on- shore flow. Three+ inch amounts are
locally possible along the coast but there is more guidance
indicating the heaviest rainfall will be off-shore. A Marginal Risk
still is sufficient given the low-end confidence of rainfall
placement,

Bann


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt