Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Aug 05 2026 - 12Z Thu Aug 06 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...Central Plains to Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley...

The upper trough and associated cold front described in the Day 2
discussion will reduce to a snail's pace while providing an axis
for moisture to pool and thunderstorms to focus. A Slight Risk for
an elevated threat for excessive rainfall was maintained given
some potential overlap with rain the previous day affecting
antecedent conditions. There has been more model spread in the
position of heaviest rain, but general consensus is along line from
northeast Kansas to the Chicago vicinity.

...Southern to Central Appalachians into the Northern Mid-
Atlantic...
Whatever is left of the upper level trough across the eastern U.S.
should devolve into a shear line by midweek. However, a moist and
unstable environment (PWs greater than the 75th percentile in an
already moist season of the year) will continue and expand
northwestward as the upper energy shifts. Scattered rainfall with
high rain rates can be expected thus maintaining a Marginal Risk
for excessive rainfall and local flash flooding potential. Convection
may once again be enhanced over portions of the Florida Peninsula,
but given a likely rainfall focus over the less sensitive areas of
the Everglades westward, will not introduce a Marginal at this
point.

...Southwest/Southern High Plains...
There will be a persistent influx of moisture along the southern
periphery of the Southwest upper high, although its been noted that
there is a less focused area for where higher QPF will occur. A
Marginal Risk remains for much of Arizona and New Mexico for
isolated flooding and runoff issues.

Campbell/Tate


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt