Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Oct 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The cold front sagging south into north Florida will stall out
near the Big Bend and the First Coast on Wednesday, becoming a
stationary front. The contrasting air masses on either side of the
front will remain extremely different, with dry air to the north,
and very soupy air to the south. Thus, the front will remain a very
effective boundary for the tropical air mass south of the front to
leverage to produce lift and locally heavy rain. The southward
progress of the front will allow the I-10 corridor to get a break,
relatively-speaking. While rain will the a threat there, the
amounts will be significantly lower than further south, as dry air
intrudes on north Florida. Meanwhile, on Wednesday the front will
more intensely target the I-4 corridor, especially on the Gulf
Coast side, where the heaviest rainfall amounts (1-3 inches) are
most likely. Meanwhile on the Atlantic side, expect a general 1-2
inches of rain. The format of the rain remains the same. Slow-
moving showers with embedded thunderstorms. Most of the time the
rain rates will be light, but where storms train, very localized
heavier amounts to 6 inches are possible. Flat terrain and sandy
soils, even if saturated, should limit the flash flooding threat
once again to urban and poor-drainage areas. The rainfall amounts
needed to get more significant flooding will be few and far
between.

Wegman


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt