Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1154 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun May 31 2026 - 12Z Mon Jun 01 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM
MONTANA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...

Any heavy to excessive rainfall should be located in or near a
plume of anomalous moisture plume that will extend from Montana
into the Southeast United State. Large scale forcing is more
subtle outside of the Northern Plains/Rockies...but there should be
some weak shortwave energy embedded within the weak flow that will
make them difficult or impossible to time. As this shortwave energy
encounters a late day atmosphere with MUCAPE values in excess of
3000 J per kg from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley and parts
of the Southeast US...storms have the potential to produce very
intense rainfall rates that approach or exceed flash flood
guidance along this entire corridor. A large and generally
unfocused Marginal Risk area still seems to handle the localized
nature of flash flood risk that should exist.

The Montana portion of the Marginal Risk has the strongest synoptic
forcing as a mid- and upper-level system gradually moves north of
the border...keeping the western part of the state in lingering
wrap-around rainfall before gradually tapering off.

Bann



Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt