Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 16 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...

Complex upper level evolution across the northern half of the CONUS
will lead to our first strong cold front of the season being
propelled rapidly to the south Thursday evening as diurnal mixing
ceases near sunset and the front faces little resistance on its
push southward. The upper level setup over the Southeast CONUS will
still be in position to provide a continued draw of rich theta_E
air out of the Gulf into the Southern Plains ahead of the front
meaning the convergence signature and prospects for heavy rainfall
will continue for those along and ahead of the front.

The greatest potential for heavy rain will exist over the Southern
High Plains into southwestern TX as they will be the last places to
see the frontal passage at any point in the forecast period with
areas of the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos likely to not see the
front until perhaps after the D2 time frame. General instability
maximum and PWAT anomalies up near +3 standard deviations correlate
to heavy thunderstorm prospects over the Southern High Plains with
a corridor of significant rainfall potential from the Western
Rolling Hills of TX, through the Permian Basin and Concho Valley,
down into the Big Bend area and over into the terrain of southwest
TX. Some added isentropic ascent will lead to prolonged periods of
heavy rain, even after the front passes until a more robust dry air
advection regime takes shape beyond the current D3.

Ensembles continue to trend towards an area of appreciable rainfall,
especially south of the Pecos River in west TX where the greatest
instability axis is located, along with substantially high PWATs
running between 1.5-2", a signal that would easily encroach on the
95-99th percentile according to the latest NAEFS and ECENS
climatological percentiles. Forecast total remain prolific for this
area of the CONUS with guidance inferring on a broad area of at
least 2-4", locally higher, across portions of west TX with the max
focused over the Stockton Plateau towards the RGV within the Big
Bend. This setup resembles some of the more prominent heavy rain
depictions for west TX as the combination of pre-frontal convection
and then prolonged isentropically forced precipitation will
account for a cumulative effect, leading to such a robust QPF
depiction.

This is trending towards a formidable setup for this area of the
CONUS with a high- end SLGT remaining the forecast over the above
areas. There is a potential for an upgrade in the risk further as
the the progged cold front will play a significant role in the
potential, thus will need to evaluate any timing differences in the
latitudinal push of the front itself. For now, a pretty high
likelihood of at least scattered flash flood prospects within the
Stockton Plateau to Big Bend area with outside chances for more
appreciable flash flooding in the areas of both Midland/Odessa over
into San Angelo. The previous SLGT was adjusted a bit further
north to encompass southern OK to account for lingering flash flood
chances beyond the main impacts from the now D1.

Kleebauer


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt