Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH, CENTRAL, AND WEST TEXAS...

Have maintained the Marginal Risk across much of south to south-
central and west Texas for Saturday. Expect a slow ramp-up of
storms through the day with the approach of the southern stream
upper-wave from the west and increasing low-level flow from the
Gulf, which will likely leave the chance for more widespread,
intense rainfall for Sunday. There were a couple corridors of
potentially heavier rainfall noted in the now available hi-res
guidance. The first is with the potential for modest instability to
develop through portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley leading to
a cluster of more intense storms as indicated by the HRRR. The
second is with enhanced upslope flow into the higher terrain of
northeast Mexico increasing storm coverage and potential rainfall
along the south Texas Plains/Rio Grande as noted by the suite of
RRFS guidance. However, given the bi-modal distribution of
circumstances and potential rainfall, as well as the concern some
of the heaviest rainfall could ultimately end up mostly in Mexico
in either case, the risk for flash flooding broadly remains
isolated for now.

Putnam


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt