Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Aug 07 2026 - 12Z Sat Aug 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND, ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST...

...Lower Lakes, Ohio Valley into New England...

During this period a PW plume of 1.50-1.75 inches will be pooled
across much of the central states to New England within the
southwest flow sandwiched between the upper ridge over the Atlantic
and a broad mean trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
region. Shortwave energy in this southwest flow will help
accentuate lift in this high PW axis, supporting widespread
scattered convection across these areas. There may be better
organization to the convective activity across the Lower Lakes/Ohio
Valley region in the vicinity of a slow moving frontal boundary
expected to stretch west southwest to east northeast across this
area.

...Southern to Central Appalachians...

PW values in the 1.5 to 1.75 inches range will hold steady across
the region aiding in the local enhancement of the widespread
scattered convection. A broad Marginal Risk covers the Central to
Southern Appalachians where localized hourly rain amounts of 1-2"+
could lead to runoff issues, particularly in urban areas and within
areas of steep terrain.

..Southwest...

While there continues to be low confidence with QPF details,
locally heavy rains and isolated runoff issues will continue in the
axis of above average PW values expected across this area. A
Marginal Risk area remains in effect for much of Arizona and New
Mexico.

Campbell


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt