Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Oct 12 2026

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST...

A widespread heavy rainfall threat will continue across a large
region from Southern California, into the Great Basin and portions
of the Southwest on day 2. The combination of the remnants of
Rachel and the continued very favorable right entrance region jet
dynamics over the Great Basin will keep PW anomalies very high day
2, 2 to 4+ standard deviations above the mean. Model consensus is
for widespread heavy precip totals across these areas, with a
moderate risk maintained from Southern CA into southern NV,
including the Las Vegas region, far northwest AZ and far southwest
UT. A broad slight risk area continues northeastward into the
Great Basin, with a northeastward extension of this slight risk
area made from the previous issuance into far northeast NV,
northern UT and far southeast ID to match the model consensus heavy
qpf axis.

The remnants of Isaias will produce widespread moderate to heavy
precipitation from the Upper OH Valley, Central Appalachians, Mid-
Atlantic, Northeast and coastal NC day 2. Aside from isolated
urban runoff issues, believe there will not be any excessive
rainfall issues across these areas. There may be some convection
along the immediate NC coast Sunday, with isolated runoff issues
possible.

Oravec


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt