Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026
Day 2

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Jul 09 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...

Several locations remain sensitive given recent rains and lowered
FFGs, particularly for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Upper Great Lakes. A Slight Risk area remains warranted for this
part of the country where areal averages of 1-2 inches are expected
with localized swaths of 3+ inches. Convection from overnight may
be weakening during the morning hours however redevelopment near
the frontal boundary midday should occur over Minnesota and
Wisconsin. Approaching shortwave energy and an upper level jet
will help drive this uptick in activity, with PWs above the
climatological 90th percentile and CAPE approaching 2000 J/kg
supporting heavy rainfall rates. While a progressive squall line
should eventually evolve, there will be an opportunity for some
training and backbuilding during the development and initial
upscale growth phase of convection. A Marginal Risk spans from the
Central Plains to the Great Lakes and surrounding area.

...Tennessee/Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic...

A Marginal Risk was maintained for this region. A shortwave moving
across Kentucky/Tennessee and a lingering backdoor front over
West Virginia/Virginia should both act as a focus for convective
development. Not expecting anything too organized or widespread,
but enough moisture and instability will be around to support
locally heavy rainfall rates.

Campbell


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt