Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Nov 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PORTIONS OF MID-
SOUTH...

...Lower and Mid-Mississippi Valley...

20Z Update: Only small modifications were necessary for the
inherited SLGT risk across the Lower Mississippi Valley with the
emphasis of flash flooding still within the zone between northern
MS, southwestern TN, over into far northwest AL. The trend from
guidance was to press the front a bit faster to the east leading to
heavier precip axis located a bit downstream of where the previous
QPF max was located. ML guidance is still highlighting the area
back near the Mississippi with the max over the Mississippi Delta
into southwestern TN. Secondary max showing up within the CAMs over
southern AR, back towards the ArklaTex where the instability is the
greatest and low-level convergence will be maximized in the
afternoon hours during the maturing instability period. FFGs
further southwest are running very high due to a prolonged drought
in the region, so refrained from a SLGT risk expansion into this
particular zone, but smaller towns across southern AR back towards
Shreveport may see local flash flood prospects a bit higher
compared to surrounding areas. FFG exceedance probs are still
focused up near Memphis and northern MS into western TN with a
potential for heavy rainfall back up to the west of Nashville. The
SLGT risk was expanded a bit north of the previous issuance and bit
east to account for the faster trend of the cold front advancement
which correlates to heavier rainfall potential downstream.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

The general consensus of the hi-res guidance shows that storms
developing late Monday will remain ongoing along an advancing cold
front extending from the mid Mississippi Valley back into eastern
Texas Tuesday morning. There is some indication in the guidance
that heavy rates and continued southwest-northeast training may
elevate the threat for heavy amounts and flash flooding from the
Ozark region into southeastern Missouri. This suggests an upgrade
may need to be considered at some point, but for now maintained the
outlook at just a Marginal Risk. Farther east, a Slight Risk
centered over the Mid-South was maintained -- where deep moisture
and favorable upper jet forcing are expected to support
re-intensifying storms capable of producing heavy rainfall rates.
The previous Slight Risk was largely maintained, but adjusted a
little to reflect the REFS high neighborhood probabilities for
2-3+ inches across this area.

Pereira

...Florida...

20Z Update: Mo changes to the previous forecast as the forecast
remains on track from the last forecast issuance. The heavy totals
the previous 24hrs will only add to the threat over the east-
central FL coast as soil moisture will maintain well above normal
state with the latest soil moisture percentiles already pushing
above 90% for areas between Melbourne to Port St. Lucie/Stuart
area. This will provide an enhanced prospect for flash flooding,
even if the setup isn't as pronounced as previous periods. Heaviest
rainfall within the latest 12z HREF/REFS means are a bit south
compared to today's activity, so this may help limit future impacts
as the best convective risk lies away from the hardest hit
location. No matter the case, there is still at least an isolated
threat for flash flooding with the prevailing easterly flow over
the peninsula for Tuesday.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

Easterly flow will weaken this period; however, with anomalous
moisture remaining in place, cannot rule out additional localized
heavy rainfall amounts resulting in at least isolated flash
flooding concerns, especially in urbanized locations and areas
previously inundated with heavy rains.

Pereira


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt