Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 13 2025 - 12Z Mon Jul 14 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE MID- ATLANTIC...

...Southern Plains...

The upper level shortwave responsible for forcing the thunderstorms
from Saturday night will cut off from the primary flow with the jet
on Sunday. This upper level shortwave will coincide with a
stationary front over Northwest Texas and Oklahoma. There will be a
continuous southerly flow of plentiful Gulf moisture across Texas
and Oklahoma on Sunday, but with limited forcing, the overall
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be lesser on Sunday as
compared with today (Sat). The tradeoff in some areas with this
setup is because both the stationary front and upper level cutoff
disturbance will be very slow-moving, if moving at all, some of the
same areas that will likely see heavy rain from thunderstorms for
the second consecutive day. This is most likely in north-central
Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. For this reason, a higher end
Slight was maintained for this area on our internal progs. While
storm coverage will be lesser, due to the abundant moisture
available for any storms, the stronger storms will be capable of 2+
inch/hour rainfall rates, which will be heavy enough to cause
localized flash flooding over sensitive areas. Depending on the
rainfall pattern/amounts in this area today and the next cycle of
CAM guidance, a focused Moderate Risk area could be needed.
Farther west, combination of the frontal boundary and a slight
surge in moisture should combine for another round of scattered
storms which could lead to additional flash flooding across
sensitive areas. In coordination with WFO ABQ, added a Slight Risk
over central NM given the uptick in QPF compared to today (Sun).

...Mid-Atlantic...

Very few changes were needed to the Slight Risk that covers much of
the central Appalachians from Virginia north through upstate New
York. Abundant Gulf and Atlantic moisture will stream northward up
the East Coast through the period, increasing PWATs locally to
over 2 inches. A potent cold front will cross out of the Midwest
and into Pennsylvania and New York Sunday night. This forcing will
result in numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of very heavy
rainfall in the Slight Risk area. The greatest rainfall totals are
likely from northern Pennsylvania through central New York. Further
south towards and west of the DMV, while forcing will be lesser,
any storms that form will be capable of heavy rainfall with
abundant moisture available.

...Eastern Florida...

A mid-level feature (NHC is monitoring for potential tropical
development) off the Southeast Coast will drift southwestward then
westward toward the southern half of Florida tomorrow/tomorrow
night. With it, PW values will rise to over 2 inches (>90th
percentile) and some heavy rainfall is possible which could lead
to some flash flooding, especially over the urban areas.

Fracasso/Wegman

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt