Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 30 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 31 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...19Z Update...

No changes were needed due to sufficiently similar model guidance
in the 12Z runs.

Wegman

...Previous Discussion...

An uptick in convective activity is expected Monday night into
Tuesday morning across portions of MI into western PA/NY. There is
a strong surge of moisture and instability, and thus locally heavy
rainfall is possible. Overall it seems like the better chance of
localized flash flooding is after 12z Tuesday as the duration of
rain makes hydrologic conditions more sensitive by then. So we
will hold off on introducing any day 2 risk area and let the day 3
Marginal cover the threat. But we will continue to monitor trends
as the event gets more in range of the high res models today.

Chenard

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt