Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 27 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...

20z Update...

Maintained the inherited ERO areas for this update, as additional
localized rainfall totals of 2"+ will be possible over areas that
recieved significant rainfall earlier in the week. These amounts
should be spread out over a relatively long period of the day and
largely confined to where upslope flow is most ideal (with the best
signal for 2" and 3" exceedance from 12z CAMs concentrated near the
San Bernardino Mountains).

Churchill


Previous Discussion...

Minor changes were made to the Slight and Marginal Risk areas from
yesterday's Day 3 ERO. The secondary (weaker) Atmospheric River
will be waning, however given the significant accumulations
leading up to this period, soils will remain hyper sensitive to
any additional precipitation, particularly across the Transverse
Range and surrounding locations. As such, a Slight Risk area was
maintained for this part of the state along with a Marginal Risk
that extends up the coast toward San Francisco and along the
foothills of the Sierra Nevada Range.

Hurley


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt