Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 25 2026 - 12Z Sat Sep 26 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NEW MEXICO
INTO THE PLAINS, AND OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...

...Southwest...

A lingering mid-level disturbance, along with sufficient
instability and moisture influx from the Gulf, will support another
day of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Southwest.
Antecedent conditions will remain a concern following multiple
rounds of rainfall, particularly across portions of New Mexico
where soils remain saturated and FFGs remain low. While the overall
coverage and intensity of convection may be reduced compared to
previous days, locally heavy rainfall rates will remain possible
where stronger convection develops. Given the increasingly
sensitive hydrologic conditions, even modest additional rainfall
may result in localized flash flooding. The inherited Marginal was
maintained with only minor adjustments.

...Central Plains...

The mid-level shortwave will continue to progress across the
Central Plains, maintaining broad ascent and precipitation from
portions of Kansas northeastward through Nebraska and Iowa. Locally
appreciable rainfall total remain possible, though limited
instability may again favor a substantial stratiform component and
temper rainfall rates. A Slight Risk was considered across portions
of Nebraska into Iowa. However, uncertainty regarding the coverage
and magnitude of heavier rainfall precludes an upgrade at this
time, and the Marginal Risk was maintained. An upgrade may become
necessary in later forecast cycles as a consensus hopefully becomes
more clear, and confidence in mesoscale details increase.

...Northeast...

A Marginal Risk has been maintained for parts of the Northeast as
the details of a potent coastal low continue to be ironed out.
There is still uncertainty pertaining to the time and location of
the low track, but there is a consensus forming in heavy rainfall
occurring along coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and
Connecticut. However, placement of the low along with its central
pressure vary. With global guidance remaining in disagreement,
enough uncertainty was raised to preclude any upgrade at this
time, with continuity of the previous forecast being favored.

Blanco-Alcala


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt