Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
827 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 29 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 30 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Texas and New Mexico...

Conditions will be favorable for widespread convection across
portions of Texas and New Mexico on Thursday as mid-level energy
associated with the remnants of TC Vance move into the region. As
the wave approaches, southeasterly low-level flow will bring
anomalous Gulf moisture into the south-central U.S., increasing
PWATs across Texas to 1.5-2 inches, which is well above normal for
this time of year. In addition to mid-level destabilization from
the wave, enhanced upper level divergence in the right entrance
region of a southern stream jet will support a broad region of
ascent across Texas. These ingredients combined with at least
modest CAPE (slightly limited due to widespread cloud cover) are
expected to support an organized heavy rainfall event.

Model guidance continues to trend north and west with the QPF
footprint of this event, which has resulted in a northward
expansion of the preexisting Slight Risk area across portions of
West and Central Texas. There is good agreement from model guidance
showing the heaviest precipitation totals (2-4 inches, locally
higher) focusing between the Stockton and Edwards Plateaus and the
Midland area. This cycle's HREF guidance pointed to at least
moderate probabilities for 3 inches in this area but dropped off
to less than 15 percent for 5 inches. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour (locally higher) will be possible within the Slight
Risk area. There was not enough of a signal to introduce a
Moderate Risk this cycle, moreso due to the general lower
confidence in more extreme rainfall totals or rates.

Surrounding the Slight Risk area, there is a broader Marginal Risk
area that covers much of the western half of Texas to account for
locally heavy rainfall potential extending further north and west.
The Marginal Risk also includes southern New Mexico where the
combination of Gulf and Pacific moisture will allow for scattered
to widespread convection, and there should be sufficient CAPE to
allow for locally heavy rainfall rates. Locally heavy rainfall over
sensitive terrain and burn scars could cause flash flooding,
especially considering how saturated soils are after recent heavy
rains in this region.

Dolan/Taylor


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt