Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1159 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 03 2026 - 12Z Fri Sep 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...Southwest...

A Slight Risk remains in effect across southern Arizona and into
New Mexico for this period. An uptick in moisture should result in
increased convective coverage and a scattered flash flood risk.
This region will continue to be monitored over the coming days.

...Texas, Gulf Coast and Florida...

The remnant vort center of Edouard should be less defined by this
time, but still present over east Texas with lingering tropical
rain over sensitive soils. It could still help focus some
organized convective clusters, and thus an isolated flash flood
risk could linger into Thursday. Elsewhere onshore flow within the
pooled high PW values and stalled boundary could trigger convection
along the coastline and across the Florida Peninsula leading to
isolated areas of flash flooding/ponding. A Marginal Risk spans
from eastern Texas to Florida.

...Upper Midwest to Mid-Atlantic...

While the details on where the heaviest rain will occur there
continues to be a signal for one or more rounds of organized
convection to track trough portions of this area through the day
into Thursday night. Parts of this region have had recent rains to
lower FFG and increase sensitivity to additional heavy rainfall. A
Marginal Risk was maintained from Minnesota/Iowa to Del-Mar-VA and
New Jersey.

...California into the Intermountain West...

A Marginal Risk continues from northern California into Idaho.
During this period a strong synoptic system will bring an axis of
heavy rainfall to the region. Not much instability, but just enough
showing up in model forecasts to suggest some potential for
localized higher rates and an isolated flash flood potential.

Campbell/Chenard


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt