Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
746 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of
the period (12Z Sunday) across the Lower MS Valley into central
MS the northern half of GA. Instability across the D2 area of
concern (central MS into the southern Appalachians) is expected to
remain weak and likely reduce from its peak of ~500 J/kg from the
early morning to the late afternoon. Areas of SW to NE training
near a frontal boundary beneath modestly diffluent flow aloft with
hourly rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be possible. By
around 18Z, eastward translation of an upstream shortwave should
coincide with the axis of heavier precipitation moving toward the
east at a steady pace with only brief training possible along and
ahead of the main precipitation axis. As heavier precipitation
reaches the southern Appalachians, hourly rainfall is likely to
peak in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range but freezing rain for portions
of the area will limit runoff potential. Locally sensitive ground
conditions/urban areas will be at greatest risk of runoff concerns,
though the overall threat appears to be fairly isolated in nature.
24 total rainfall totals for the region are expected to range from
1 to 3 inches (perhaps locally in excess of 3 inches) through 12Z
Monday.

Otto


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt