Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley and Southern
Appalachians...

On-going convection at the start of the period will continue to be
capable of producing sufficient rainfall rates to produce isolated
threat for runoff concerns into the early hours of the Day 2
period. Then by the afternoon, moist southerly flow into the
southern Appalachians along with modest mid-to-upper level forcing
will contribute to an increasing chance for locally heavy showers
and storms. The general consensus of the 12Z guidance indicates
that orographically focused amounts of 1-2 inches, with isolated
heavier amounts, can be expected across portions of the Tennessee
Valley as well as from northern Georgia into the southern Blue
Ridge.

...Southeast Florida...

The threat for heavy amounts and flooding concerns will continue to
diminish during the period. However, isolated heavy amounts with
flash flooding especially in the urbanized coastal areas can not be
entirely ruled out given some overlap with areas soaked since
Saturday. While drier air will continue to spread into the region,
especially late in the period, PWs remaining near 2 inches could
support some additional afternoon heavy downpours, resulting in
additional isolated runoff concerns.

Pereira/Bann


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt