Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 07 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 08 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS...

The weak surface low that will bring heavy rain to south Florida on
Sunday will continue eastward over the Peninsula and into the
Bahamas by Monday afternoon. Heavy rain will likely continue over
the southern Peninsula through at least Monday morning. There is
considerable disagreement on the track, strength and the speed of
the low, which will play a major role in how long the heavy rain
persists into Monday afternoon. With somewhat better agreement that
rainfall amounts will at least be lower than on Sunday, the Slight
risk for the area that was inherited was largely maintained, albeit
including some of the interior of the Peninsula as soils become
saturated area-wide, resulting in close to 100% conversion of heavy
rain to runoff. An internal higher-end Slight is in place for the
Gold Coast, for the potential that should amounts from Sunday
verify, then another targeted Moderate Risk upgrade will be
necessary. Meanwhile, a second day of very heavy rain and
thunderstorms is expected to impact all of the Keys, which at high
tide times may cause flooding due to poor drainage.

With some of the other CAMs moving the low across the southern
Peninsula and east to the Bahamas, portions of the Gulf Coast,
especially north of Ft. Myers/Cape Coral up through Tampa are in
the rare decreasing trend in the forecast rainfall amounts on
Monday. Thus, the Slight that extended up through Tampa was
downgraded to a Marginal north of Ft. Myers/Cape Coral with this
update.

Wegman

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt