Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 14 2026 - 12Z Mon Jun 15 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS FROM
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

20Z Update...

Expanded the Slight Risk a bit farther south across TX with some
more support for farther south QPF. Also included the Mid-
Atlantic in the larger Marginal outline with the area to the north,
and nudged that region into New England as well per some higher QPF
in the models. Lastly, with little change in the synoptic pattern
over FL, expect another change of sea-breeze-driven storms over the
eastern portions of the Peninsula, where a Marginal Risk was added.

Fracasso

Previous discussion is below:

A slow-moving but potent cold front will approach portions of north
Texas through into Arkansas on Sunday. The MCS that caused the
Moderate Risk flooding in Missouri Saturday night will be
responsible for the heavy rains that elevate northeast Texas
through the lower Mississippi Valley into the Slight Risk
category. Associated heavy rain will be ongoing at the start of the
period Sunday morning, and will weaken and dissipate by midday.
Since the forward/southward progression of the heavies rains will
slow after daybreak Sunday, some areas may see several hours of
weakening but still heavy rains. Abundant moisture will remain in
place south of the front, as PWATs rise as high as 2.25 inches.
Thus, any cells producing rains will have no trouble doing so
efficiently. During the afternoon and evening, this area may see
additional widely scattered storms with the strong front stalled
out in the area, but coverage will be somewhat in question as the
stalled out front alone will not be enough forcing due to flow on
either side of the front weakening to light and variable winds.
Further west into west Texas and New Mexico, a shortwave trough
running into some of the same Gulf moisture as further east should
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in
clusters from the afternoon well into the evening.

Topographic assistance by the Sacramento Mountains and other
ranges may locally produce heavy rains, where any burn scars may
take over at raising the flash flooding risk. The same front
extends into the Appalachians and interior Northeast. While the
storms will be racing in these areas, the abundance of moisture
advecting north into the front will support the storms in their
capability of producing heavy rainfall. The Marginal Risk for these
areas was expanded along the Canadian border through northern
Maine. The Marginal for portions of the Mid-Atlantic was split into
2 areas with this update. One for the I-95 corridor from DC to
Philly, and a second for the Hampton Roads area. Abundant
Gulf/Atlantic moisture in these areas will support fast-moving but
training storms capable of producing heavy downpours. Due to
ongoing drought, the threat really is focused on the urban areas
where FFGs are lower. The intermediate rural areas were removed
with this update as any training storms that occur over most of the
Delmarva will be over rural and flood-resistant/flat areas.

Wegman


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt