Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Aug 25 2026 - 12Z Wed Aug 26 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALONG THE GULF
AND SOUTHEAST COASTS...

...Southwest to the Central Plains...

Diurnal shower and thunderstorms activity will develop once again
across portions of the Southwest into the central and southern
Rockies. However, the footprint for these storms will likely be
less than earlier in the week as the upper high begins to shift
west -- capping or directing moisture away from parts of the
Southwest and Great Basin. Therefore, continued to leave southern
Arizona and New Mexico and much of the Great Basin out of the
Marginal Risk.

The models continue to signal a chance for organized storms and
potentially heavy amounts across portions of the central Plains.
Energy emanating from the West and sliding off of the top of the
western U.S. ridge is expected to interact with an area of
increasing moisture that will be deepening ahead of cold front
dropping through the central U.S. While models continue to differ
on the details, they have presented a stronger signal for organized
activity over portions of southern Nebraska into Kansas. But given
the uncertainty and what are expected to be fairly progressive
storms, maintained just a Marginal Risk for now.

...Gulf and Southeast Coasts...

Another day of potentially heavy diurnal showers and storms are
expected from portions of the Florida Panhandle to coastal South
Carolina. PWs are forecast to remain at or above 1.75 inches,
fueling efficient-rainfall-producing-storms. Farther west, the
consensus of the guidance shows much of the heavier activity
developing and remaining offshore with a weak wave. There is some
potential for heavy amounts developing onshore, but at this point
they look to be mostly confined to the immediate coast of
southeastern Louisiana, where flash flooding is not a typical
concern.

Pereira


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt