Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
841 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 29 2026 - 12Z Thu Jul 30 2026

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...Northeast...
Intense rainfall, some of which will be training and repeating, is
expected to be ongoing at the start of the Day 2 period Wednesday
morning, particularly across western MA, far southern VT, and
broadly across southern New England. Rainfall rates between 1-2"/hr
at times will be possible through late morning/early afternoon and
totals of 2-4" (with localized higher amounts possible) are
expected. HREF neighborhood probabilities remain high (greater
than 80 percent) for 3" totals across western/central MA into far
southern VT. Probabilities are moderate (30-50 percent) for 5"
totals.

Given the setup and risk of significant flash flooding continuing
from the day 1 period, a Moderate Risk has been introduced for the
day 2 period, mainly to account for what is expected to be ongoing
in the early part of the period. The second half of the period
(after 00Z Thu), the intensity of rainfall should subside while
also shifting eastward.

...Four Corners States into the Central/Northern Plains...
Monsoonal flow persists with isolated to widely scattered
convection extending from the Four Corners region north and
eastward...perhaps extending as far east as the plains of Colorado.
Some of this rain could fall atop soils saturated from heavy rain
on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Overall, the risk area remains in
good shape with the Slight Risk focused on eastern Colorado.

...Central Gulf Coast Region into parts of the Southeast...
A cold front stalling along the Gulf Coast will be a focus for slow
moving and training thunderstorms on Wednesday. Guidance continues
to indicate a low-probability threat for at least 3" of rain due to
training of 1-2"/hr rain rates within favorable thermodynamics.
This region can generally tolerate significant rain rates and this
amount of rainfall, but any more pronounced training could result
in isolated flash flood related impacts.

Taylor/Bann/Weiss


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt