Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 02 2026 - 12Z Thu Sep 03 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN TEXAS...

...Northern Mid Atlantic & Southern New England...

A Slight Risk remains in effect for much of central and eastern
new York. A stronger shortwave tracking atop the region to
interact with a slowly northeast advancing warm front will result
in scattered to widespread convection across the region. While the
exact location of the heaviest rainfall remains uncertain, there
should be amble support of training of clusters of thunderstorms
with 1-2"/hr rain rates. The guidance focuses this heaviest
rainfall across portions of Upstate New York, and while soil
moisture is generally below normal according to NASA SPoRT, this
should support up to 3" of rain in some areas leading to scattered
instances of flash flooding, with more isolated responses
elsewhere.

...Eastern Texas and Southwest Louisiana...

Tropical cyclone Edouard will be well inland and slowly its
progression while spread bands of heavy rainfall to eastern Texas
and into Louisiana. Additional heavy rainfall is likely even as the
central low pressure begins to dissipate. PWs of 2-2.25" will
support continued heavy rain, and as 850mb inflow only slowly
weakens it will drive enhanced convergence to support 2-3"/hr rain
rates. While most of the rain should be around the center of the
system which will be lifting slowly northward towards north Texas,
there is potential for a locally enhanced inflow band on its south
side which could prolong and enhance the rain across areas that
receive heavy rain. The small size of the storm should limit the
footprint and potential impacts, but ECENS/GEFS probabilities still
indicate that at least an additional 3" of rain may fall, with
locally higher amounts, leading to instances of flash flooding.
Some further refinements in the Slight Risk area are expected with
future updates, both to capture the latest guidance track, but
also better resolve where any additional rainfall will occur on top
of heavy rain from Tuesday.

...Northern Plains and Midwest...

Lingering MCS activity possible early in the period across the
Upper Midwest. PWAT anomalies remain elevated at times mid- week,
with values of 1.5-2" forecast, however the spread in the
deterministic QPF is higher than average. A broad Marginal Risk
spans from Minnesota/Iowa eastward to the Great Lakes.

...Florida...

Another day where the tropical moisture plume remains entrenched
across Florida, reflected by PW anomalies of +1.5 sigma stretching
across most of the state. Both coasts could experience slow moving
storms with 2+"/hr rain rates, as well as across the inland
portions of the peninsula where storm mergers/collisions can occur.
A Marginal Risk was maintained for this period.

Campbell/Weiss


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt