Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Nov 16 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COASTAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY...

Enough ingredients appear to be coming together to warrant a Slight
Risk area on Sunday as convection associated with a mid-level
trough approaches from the west/northwest early Sunday. Even if the
models prove to be correct in keeping the highest rainfall totals
off-shore...the there are an increasing number of signals that
problematic rainfall amounts could develop inland (especially true
in urbanized areas and where there is overlap with areas that
received 1.5 to 4.0 inches of rain within the past week).

Synoptically, low-level flow off the Gulf will be drawn northward
across portions of the Upper and Central Texas coast early in the
period in response to the approach of an upper level trough
(potentially an upper low). The GFS and ECMWF both depict 30 to 45
kt flow with decent directional shear in the 925-700 mb
layer...suggesting potential for organized convection. At the same
time, precipitable water values approach 1.5 inches (or 1.5 to 2.0
standardized anomalies greater than climatology for this time of
year).

The models do show a plume of air with precipitable water values
greater than an inch extending northward. Maintained the Marginal
risk area here over questions about how much instability will be
present.

The upper system approaching from the northwest helps shnut the
heaviest rainfall off the coast with time,

Bann


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt