Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Oct 10 2026

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Hurricane Isaias will make its way out of the central Gulf, make
landfall near the Alabama/Florida border, then continue north
across Alabama on Friday. See www.hurricanes.gov for the latest
track forecast.

As regards rainfall, increasing southwesterly shear over Isaias as
it makes landfall will push most of the associated rainfall east
and northeast of the center. Thus, much of the higher risk area are
along and east of the track. Frictional convergence on the
southerly flow east of the center will locally enhance rainfall
rates from Mobile east along the coast and into the Florida
Panhandle. 3-7 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 10
inches are forecast. Considering the soils are already wetter than
normal over much of this area from recent rainfall, this amount of
heavy rain... much of it occurring in a 12-18 hour period will
cause numerous flash floods, some of which will be significant.
Urban areas such as Mobile and Pensacola are at greatest risk. Also
at risk are areas around any concave shaped bays (which most are),
that can funnel any storm surge up the rivers and block any
drainage of rainfall.

As the track of Isaias is little changed, the rainfall totals are
also little changed. The risk areas over this region are also
little changed. Isaias will be moving at a steady clip as it moves
into the Southeast, so for most areas, any heavy rains will be
relatively short in duration. This fast movement will be the saving
grace preventing much more widespread and significant flooding
issues. As the center moves inland Friday night, the heaviest rains
will pivot northwest of center with the greatest forcing into the
drier air mass to the north, as well as in lingering feeder bands
that will promote localized training storms. The Slight Risk area
continues to highlight much of the rest of Alabama, eastern
Mississippi, and western Georgia. Frictional convergence will
increase in intensity along the Atlantic coast of Georgia and South
Carolina in the predawn hours Saturday morning. This phenomenon
will be just beginning, so the Marginal Risk that extends to the
Atlantic coast looks good.

Wegman


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt