Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 12 2026 - 12Z Sat Jun 13 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

21Z update... The latest guidance had an uptick in QPF across
portions of southern Florida in association with the seabreeze
induced convection on the western side of the peninsula. This
warranted a minor reshaping of the southern bounds of the Marginal
Risk currently in effect. Elsewhere... there will be potential for
heavy rainfall all along the draped frontal boundary from the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region and westward to the Southern/Central
Plains. Some areas have have recent rain to lower local FFGs which
increase the risk for isolated areas of flooding concerns. No
changes were made with this update for this part of the country.

Campbell

On Friday, an upper level trough will push across the Northeast and
drive a cold front across the eastern and south-central United
States. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop as the
frontal boundary interacts with the anomalously warm and moist air
mass, and increased shear in the vicinity of the trough will
likely support some deeper organized convection in portions of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Moisture will pool ahead of the front,
and PWAT values are forecast to rise above 2 inches from the
southern Plains to the Northeast, which will allow for efficient
rainfall rates. Flash flood potential should be somewhat limited by
the speed of the front; however, locally heavy rainfall may lead
to isolated instances of flash flooding. Storms over the southern
Plains will move slower as the frontal boundary becomes quasi-
stationary, which may result in some areas of higher rainfall
totals. A mid-level wave is expected to move east across the
central/southern Plains Friday evening, which should lift the
frontal boundary north as a warm front and support a wave of
enhanced convection Friday night. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty in where this area of convection will develop, but
there will likely be some enhanced flash flood potential over
portions of the central/southern Plains. Further southwest,
southeasterly flow and increasing moisture will support enhanced
showers and storms over West Texas and eastern New Mexico, which
may create flooding concerns in the vicinity of the Guadalupe and
Sacramento mountains and in burn scar areas. A Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall stretches from the southern Plains to the
Northeast to cover these threats. Elsewhere, heavy rainfall will
also be possible in Florida where anomalous moisture will reside.
Convection along the sea breezes will have the potential to produce
very heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding concerns for urban
areas in Central and Southwest Florida. A Marginal Risk area has
been introduced to cover these threats.

Dolan


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt