Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu May 21 2026 - 12Z Fri May 22 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS...

Numerous areas of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Slight
Risk area on Thursday through Thursday night. An ensemble of
guidance that covers the Day 3/Thursday period generally agree that
Thursday morning, the strongest storms will be across coastal Texas
through central Texas. These storms will track northeastward and
grow upscale as the impact areas from northern Louisiana, northeast
Texas, and Oklahoma. Thursday evening, a new round of storms
impacts south Texas as the rest of the storms push northeast into
Arkansas, northeast Oklahoma, and into Kansas, which then continue
northeast up the mid-Mississippi River Valley and a separate area
of storms impacts the Kansas City area. Despite this broad
evolution, there is very little confidence on how the storms will
behave/merge or track. Thus, the Slight covers likely more
saturated soils after rainfall expected in many of these areas on
Days 1 and 2. There will be no shortage of moisture and instability
across the Slight Risk area, especially the southern half, so it's
likely any limiting factor will be a generally progressive forward
speed to the storms, and cold pool interactions.

It's likely that with future updates, CAMs guidance should help
narrow down where the greatest threats for storms will be on
Thursday. This should allow the Slight to shrink a bit with better
confidence, though much of the region should see at least some
rainfall.

Wegman

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt