Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 06 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 07 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON, AS WELL AS THE
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON...

While the bulk of the forecast rainfall on Wednesday comes early
with a distinct lull in moderate to heavy precipitation across the
PacNW through much of Day 2, precipitation looks to ramp up once
again by midday Thursday (Day 3) as yet another atmospheric river
makes landfall. While this AR looks weaker and more disjointed
overall, additional rainfall totals of up to 2-3" are forecast for
portions of WA/OR/CA. A broader inherited Marginal Risk was
separated into two smaller areas where models are focusing this
heavier precipitation (which also coincides with areas already
receiving 2-5" of rainfall between Days 1-2). While rates will
likely largely be limited to 0.5"/hr, given the expected wet
antecedent conditions localized flash flood impacts are possible.

Churchill

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt