Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

20Z Update...
Made only minor adjustments based on the 12Z guidance.

Pereira

Previous discussion...
The deep layer unidirectional west-southwesterly flow regime will
remain in place for the day 3 period as well. The subtle, flat mid-
level shortwave feature will be translating quickly across the
South, through the Carolinas and offshore. The connection to the
western Gulf moisture pool/theta-E source will continue to further
narrow and stretch through an elongated isentropic ascent plane in
the wake of the wave draped across SC, central GA toward the
central Gulf coast. By this time period, the ascent across the
front will be fairly oblique and lapse rates will have moderated
toward limited elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg...becoming more of an
Atmospheric River with prolonged moderate rates with 24hr totals
of 1-2" across the length of the stream with scattered localized
maxima of 2-3". To be expected, much like the day 2 period, there
remains a latitudinal spread to the placement of the AR stream and
the width of the inherited Marginal Risk reflects this. However, at
this point, FFG exceedance will be more likely in the longer
duration of 6, 12 and 24hr exceedance, with any flash flooding
potential most likely upstream across LA/S AL, where multiple days
of rainfall should saturate the upper soil profiles and FFG values
may be much lower than currently analyzed.

Gallina

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt