Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Oct 19 2026

...MARGINAL RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXIST FOR THE GOLD COAST OF
FLORIDA SUNDAY...

...FL Gold Coast...
A well defined cold front is expected to press southward before
stalling south of Florida on Monday. Moderate to strong post-
frontal on-shore flow Low level flow will focus moisture flux
convergence in proximity of the front. Strong boundary layer
convergence maxima likely along the east central coast of Florida,
which would be strongest overnight will support potential for
locally heavy rains from well defined rain bands that may train for
periods early Sunday. There has been a subtle southward shift in
the placement of the rainfall compared with previous model
runs...but spaghetti plots from the ECMWF Ensembles and the GEFS
ensembles still indicate that some potential lingers for 3+ inch
amounts during the period. Consequently...shrunk the Marginal risk
area somewhat but did not remove it.

Bann

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt