Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 10 2026 - 12Z Thu Jun 11 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN KANSAS
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

20Z Update...

The inherited risk areas remain in good shape and the rationale
provided from the previous shift remains on track. Did adjust the
Slight Risk a little farther south and west to account for typical
QPF biases in global guidance that tend to be too far north. But
otherwise, no significant changes were made this forecast cycle.

Mullinax

---Previous Discussion---

On Wednesday, the northern Plains cyclone will be moving swiftly
east and pushing a cold front across the Midwest. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along the frontal boundary
from the Midwest to the central Plains, which are encompassed by a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. The tail end of the front will
likely hang up on the Rockies and flatten out over the central
Plains, and low pressure is expected to develop over Kansas where a
dryline will intersect the boundary. Models are showing impressive
moisture transport ahead of the frontal boundary Wednesday morning
and a secondary surge Wednesday night as a strong low level jet
brings increasing moisture and instability into the central Plains.
This set up will be conducive for heavy rainfall, and global models
are showing potential for heightened rainfall totals of 2-4 inches
within the Slight Risk area, which may be underdone given the
convective limitations of the models. Locally heavy rainfall may
also be possible over central Wisconsin and could impact areas
highlighted with a Slight Risk on Day 2, which could warrant an
additional Slight Risk upgrade. However, there is much more
uncertainty regarding rainfall totals in Wisconsin, which may be
limited by the progressive nature of the cold front.

Dolan

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt