Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 01 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM
TEXAS TO THE MIDWEST/UPPER MIDWEST...

The central portion of the country is shaping up for heavy rainfall
as a frontal system extending from the Northeast to the Mid-South
taps into Gulf moisture advecting northward. Multiple rounds of convection
are expected to fire up across central and eastern CONUS given the
upper level support for sustained rainfall potential. Local
flooding may arise over portions of the Southern Plains, Lower and
Mid-Mississippi Valley. The general footprint of the rainfall
shield has trended a bit west from the previous cycle thus
requiring a western adjustment of the Marginal Risk area.
Consensus continues to favor the highest QPF to focus over eastern
Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and into central Missouri.

The timing of the incoming shortwave/lifting warm front has
remained a trickier part of the forecast, and convection south
along the cold front may also limit instability further
north/become the higher threat. At this time a Slight Risk was not
raised but may be needed with future updates.

Campbell/Tate

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt