Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 15 2025 - 12Z Thu Oct 16 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

2030Z Excessive Rainfall Discussion Update...
The forecast reasoning remained similar to the previously issued
discussion and the outlook was largely unchanged.

Bann

0830Z Excessive Rainfall Discussion...

...Rockies...

Longwave pattern out west will continue to evolve with upstream
troughing pushing east-northeast leading to a final prospect of
isolated to scattered convection over the terrain of the central
and southern Rockies. A lot of the threat stems from RER
positioning with a broad upper jet aligned over the Mountain West
with an extension into the High Plains by the end of the forecast
cycle. The main areas of concern will likely be in those complex
terrain locations in-of the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and down
near the Sacramento's. These areas will all have either very wet
antecedent soil moisture that would promote easier run off
capabilities, or burn scar remnants that maintain a posture for
localized flash flood opportunities with any rates >0.5"/hr. This
is still feasible with PWATs remaining ~2 deviations above normal
in this zone when assessing the latest NAEFS output. A MRGL risk
remains in place over these areas of the central and southern
Rockies as a result.

Kleebauer

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt