Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 25 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...2030Z Update...

In coordination with LOX/Oxnard, CA forecast office, a Moderate
Risk upgrade was introduced with this update for much of the coast
from San Luis Obispo through much of the Transverse Ranges north of
L.A. Expect much of the heaviest rain to occur on D2/Wednesday, but
by Christmas Day, there will still be one more front that will
cross the area from west to east, which will result in another
round of heavy rainfall in southern California. Since this next
front will arrive soon after the heaviest rains from Wednesday,
expect there will be outsized impacts from the heavy rainfall
associated therewith. Showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms
will impact much of coastal southern California and the adjacent
mountains. While each one will be fast moving, the rivers and
streams all across southern California will likely already be
flooding, so any additional rainfall, especially where heavy, will
make ongoing flooding worse.

Elsewhere, few changes were needed. Onshore flow and periods of
heavy rain will impacts much of central and coastal northern
California on Christmas Day. Snow levels will come down such that
much of the Sierra Nevada will see feet of new snow. This should
keep downstream lower-elevation flooding a bit better since this
snow will not contribute to those higher river levels.

Wegman

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt