Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 23 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 24 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA...

At 12z Saturday the cold front and associated moisture plume will be
dropping south across the central Sierra Nevada. Rainfall intensity
will be dropping fairly quickly by this time and the prolonged
atmospheric river event will finally be coming to an end. We will
continue to carry a small Marginal risk over portions of the Sierra
Nevada where an additional 1-2" of rain is possible Saturday
morning. Typically rainfall of this magnitude would not be a
concern. However, much of this risk area will have seen at least 3-
7" of rain total from the event, so even the modest additional
rainfall Saturday morning could result in a flood threat, and thus
continuing with a Marginal risk for now seems best. Although the
risk is certainly lower than previous days, and quite possible this
risk could be removed on future updates if additional rain after 12z
Saturday trends down.

Chenard
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt