Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE SIERRA...

19z Update: Minimal changes needed to the inherited Marginal risk.
Gave some consideration to carrying over the the day 2 Northern
Sierra Slight risk into day 3 as periods of heavy rainfall will
continue into Sunday. However, snow levels will drop a bit and
thus at this point any Slight risk area would probably be too
narrow to depict. Either way, some flood impacts are likely to
continue into Sunday across the Marginal risk area.

Chenard


...Previous Discussion...

Additional shortwave energy expected to rotate through the mean
trof position along the West coast and inland across California day
3. This will support a continued wet showery pattern with
additional moderate to locally heavy precip totals along much of
the California coast Ranges and into the upslope of the Sierra. A
broad marginal risk area was maintained from the previous outlook
this period with changes mostly to better fit the latest model and
WPC qpf. The slight risk area over Southern California in the
vicinity of the Transverse Range was removed given consensus of
additional moderate totals.

Oravec

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt