Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 14 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 15 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE TRANSVERSE
RANGE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

Heavy rainfall associated with a front slowing down and pivoting
across southern CA is expected this period, and this will drive a
threat for burn scar flash flooding and even some localized debris
flow/landslide potential for the southwest facing slopes of the
Transverse Range. IVT values will gradually decrease in
association with the closed low moving toward central and northern
CA. While uncertainty remains with the evolution of the vertically
stacked low and subsequent heavy rain threat, a general consensus
still supports a resurgence of IVT values into the 500-800 kg/m/s
range Saturday afternoon/night. Thus, 2 to 3+" rainfall totals are
still on deck for the coastal ranges from Santa Barbara, Los
Angeles, and Orange Counties. Accordingly, a Slight Risk has been
maintained with minimal changes owing to concerns for scattered
burn scar and urban flooding.

Asherman/Orrison

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt