Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
759 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Nov 05 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...

A Marginal risk was maintained from north GA into the southern
Appalachians. There has been a recent uptick in convective
intensity from far northern GA into eastern TN, and recent HRRR
runs indicate some brief training of cells is possible over the
next several hours as the front moves slowly eastward. Rainfall
totals locally exceeding 2" could result in isolated runoff issues.

A small Marginal risk was added to southeast CO. An upper low
moving overhead combined with strong low level convergence will
result in a narrow axis of slow moving convection from ~02z-08z.
Not much instability here, but just enough to support some locally
heavier rates initially, with the rain becoming increasingly
stratiform as instability erodes. REFS guidance indicates localized
totals of 1-3", and a good chance that 3hr FFG is locally
exceeded. Not expecting widespread or high end impacts, but given
the wet antecedent conditions, this FFG exceedance could be enough
to result in a few minor flood impacts.

The Marginal was maintained over southeast FL. Overall this is a
low end threat and not expecting much convective coverage.
However, any cells that do form will still be capable of heavy
rainfall rates, and a highly localized flash flood risk may still
exist overnight.

Chenard


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt