Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 29 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 30 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC...

Late-June weather pattern remains in place on Sunday with widely
scattered showers/storms and isolated chances for flash flooding
within the warm and humid airmass spanning from the central U.S. to
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected both along and well- ahead of a cold front sinking
southeastward across the central Plains and Midwest, as well as
associated with diurnal monsoon activity across the southern
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

As Day 1 begins, late-night convection lingering across parts of
Missouri should be about to fade with the weakening of a low level
jet. With models showing renewed convection later today and tonight
across western Missouri/eastern Kansas that extends northward into
portions if Iowa...did introduce a Slight Risk area to the
outlook where organized convection from overnight approached the
area from the north. Precipitable water values approaching 2" and
near the 90th climatological percentile will provide the
opportunity for intense rainfall rates scattered 2-4" rainfall
totals between parts of KS, MO, and southern IA.

Elsewhere within the warm sector across the Mid-South, Mid-
Atlantic, Southeast, and Southern Rockies/High Plains, typical
summer thunderstorms exhibiting scattered and a pulse mode are
likely. These storms may contain briefly very intense rainfall
rates, but see updrafts collapse quickly and become outflow
dependent. Where convective clusters merge or linger near a
stationary front draped across the Mid-Atlantic and central
Appalachians, isolated flash flooding is possible.

Bann/Snell


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt