Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025
Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 17 2025 - 12Z Thu Dec 18 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...Middle Texas Coast...
A fairly defined southern stream shortwave is noted across the
Northwest Gulf with impressive shield expansion within the larger
scale diffluent flow. Strong southerly western Gulf LLJ initiated
thunderstorms along/parallel to the southern Texas coast and cold
pool interaction and deeper layer steering flow is allowing for
cells/convective line to propagate eastward and remain well
offshore. However, as the upper- level cirrus shield clears to the
east, but low level moisture flux continues toward the Middle Texas
coast and coastal plain; insolation will allow for some increased
modest instability for an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop.
Cell motions will be very slow and may allow for longer duration
increased rainfall totals. Sandy soils will largely absorb these
modest rates/totals, but there remains a non-zero potential for
some flooding concerns particularly if the rates intersect with
poor drainage urban centers, though the coverage does not warrant
an increase in categorical level.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt