Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
L.P. OF MICHIGAN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

...Great Lakes Region...

A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall remains in effect for portions
of the Great Lakes region. A shortwave/vorticity center lifting
out over the mean ridge in the Great Lakes region will drive
stronger confluence of the low level jet across Iowa to trigger another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Overall
deep layer steering flow and fairly orthogonal ascent over boundary
should help to focus a similar west to east (WNW to ENE) oriented
axis of training thunderstorms. Upper-level dual jet couplet will
further enhance up-scale growth to a broader complex to maintain
through the overnight period. Most of the area remains at near or
above record spring rainfall and soils are fairly saturated, so
with cells capable of 1.5-2"/hr rates and localized totals of 2-3+"
suggest the placement of a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
across portions of eastern WI and central MI (along and north of
I-94).

...Pecos River Valley through Southern Plains into Ozark Plateau...

A steady stream of PW values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches will be
advecting northward through the Southern/Central Plains nearly
parallel to the dryline. This will be conducive for slow storm
motion with locally heavy rainfall. Consensus suggests 3 to 4
inches possible within the isolated cells. The Marginal Risk area
is connected to the area of concern over the Great Lakes and just
note the coverage will decrease northward along the dry-line.

Campbell/Gallina


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt