ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120632

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR
   NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper level low will move onshore the Pacific Northwest and
   transform into an open trough as it moves farther inland. Wedged
   between western U.S. troughing and an amplifying longwave trough
   over the eastern U.S., upper ridging will slide over the Rocky
   Mountain region. Associated with the substantial mid-upper level
   pattern, a rapidly evolving lee-side low in the southern Canadian
   Prairies and deepening lee surface troughing over the Great Basin
   and High Plains will present a multifaceted fire weather setup
   across portions of the Intermountain West. 

   ...Northern Montana...
   In the southern Canadian Prairies, a rapidly evolving lee low will
   promote a dry return flow pattern across the northern High Plains. A
   Critical fire weather risk was introduced for northeastern MT and
   far northwestern ND where sustained southeasterly winds of 20-25 mph
   and 15-20 percent RH will overlap an exceptionally dry fuelscape.
   Widespread south-southeasterly winds of 15-20 mph amid 20-25 percent
   RH will promote elevated fire weather concerns across much of
   central-eastern MT. Fast moving, high based showers and
   thunderstorms with limited precipitation are expected across central
   and northern MT as broader ascent materializes ahead of an incoming
   trough. Resultant instability and a dry boundary layer could
   encourage a few lightning ignitions where receptive fuels exist. An
   IsoDryT area was introduced to account for this threat. 

   ...Portions of the Southwest into the Snake River Plain and Colorado
   River Basin...
   As the sharp upper trough and associated mid-level jet shifts over
   ID into western MT, deepening surface troughing across the northern
   Great Basin and stronger southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will
   bring fire weather concerns to much of the Intermountain West.
   Southwest winds of 15-25 mph amid very low RH and drying fuels under
   successive days of abnormally high temperatures will support an
   Elevated fire weather threat across the region. Daytime instability
   and increasing mid-level moisture will promote high based convection
   along the higher terrain of the Four Corners through central WY into
   the Wyoming Basin. Sporadic lightning ignitions are possible where
   drier fuels exist, promoting an IsoDryT area.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/12/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112205

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0505 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

   Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A potent mid-level trough will move into the northwestern U.S. on
   Day 3/Wednesday while an amplifying upper trough and corresponding
   surface low move into the Northeast. A deep lee surface trough
   evolves across the northern and central High Plains in response to a
   mid-level wave ejecting into the northern Plains on Wednesday,
   bringing enhanced downslope westerly flow to the central and
   southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday. Fire weather concerns
   continue across portions of the Northern Plains Day 5/Friday as dry,
   northwest flow in the wake of a cold front impacts the region. The
   active wave pattern across the northern CONUS with deeper boundary
   layer moisture in place could support more widespread and much
   needed rainfall across the Upper Midwest beginning Day 5/Friday and
   over the weekend. 

   ...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
   ...Eastern Great Basin into Upper/Lower Colorado River Basin...
   A robust mid-level wave will push through the Pacific Northwest Day
   3/Wednesday. Stronger southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough and
   resultant deepening surface troughing across the northern Great
   Basin is expected to bring fire weather concerns to considerable
   portions of the Intermountain West. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph
   amid low RH and drying fuels under successive days of abnormally
   high temperatures should promote a fairly broad fire weather threat
   across the eastern Great Basin, northern AZ and CO Plateau.
   Increasing mid-level Pacific moisture across the Intermountain West,
   arrival of the upper trough into the western U.S. and daytime
   instability should allow for high-based convection along higher
   terrain of the Upper CO River Basin, Four Corners and into western
   NM where more receptive fuels reside. Both critical probability
   areas for impactful dry and breezy conditions and dry thunderstorms
   were expanded across this region.

   ...Upper Snake River Plain and Southwest Montana...
   Southwest winds of 20-25 mph across eastern ID, with terrain
   enhanced winds closer 30-45 mph (with higher gusts) in southwest MT
   are expected Day 3/Wednesday as the sharp upper trough and
   associated mid-level jet shifts overhead. Dry boundary layer
   conditions amid a drying fuelscape combined with the stronger
   southwest flow will enhance fire weather concerns across the Upper
   Snake River Plain and southwest MT, where 40% critical probabilities
   have been introduced.

   ...Northern Montana...
   Fuels remain quite receptive across northern MT where delayed green
   up has been noted. A rapidly evolving lee low in the southern
   Canadian Prairies will promote a dry return flow pattern across the
   northern High Plains where 40% critical probabilities were
   maintained. Fast moving, high based showers and thunderstorms are
   expected across central and northern MT Wednesday afternoon as broad
   ascent materializes ahead of the pronounced short wave trough across
   the Pacific Northwest. Limited precipitation with fast moving
   thunderstorms could bring a few ignitions to northern MT where fuels
   are more receptive, where a 10% dry thunderstorm probability area
   was warranted. Strong westerly winds behind a cold front could
   impact holdover ignitions on Day 4/Thursday where 40% critical
   probabilities were introduced across southeastern MT into portions
   of western ND/SD.

   ...Day 5/Friday - Northern Plains...
   Fire weather concerns may linger across portions of the Northern
   Plains on Day 5/Friday with dry, post-frontal west/northwest flow in
   place, but forecast uncertainty remains precluding introduction of
   critical probabilities at this time.

   ..Williams.. 05/11/2026