|
U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 111605
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
The Elevated area over the central High Plains has been trimmed on
the western/northern flanks to account for recent wetting rains and
lingering snow cover noted in satellite imagery and surface
observations. Conversely, the area was expanded slightly eastward to
align with latest forecast guidance showing a more aggressive push
of the dry air mass. Farther south and east, recent precipitation
along the boundary provides a sufficient fuel-moisture buffer to
preclude further expansion.
Otherwise, remaining portions of the central and southern High
Plains and the Elevated area over south Texas remain on track with
the latest forecast guidance. A large fire emerged northwest of
Amarillo yesterday afternoon with growth only exacerbated by the
wind switch associated with the cold front's passage overnight.
While northerly winds will remain stout today, the post-frontal air
mass is cool enough that RH values are forecast to stay above
critical thresholds (20%+), preventing any upgrade at this time.
However, the combination of high wind speeds and cured fuels
warrants continued vigilance near active incidents.
Pre-frontal warming and tightening pressure gradients may produce
locally elevated conditions across the Carolinas. However, current
observations and forecast guidance suggest wind/RH will remain
marginally below any criteria.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will translate eastward into the
Upper-Midwest/Lower Mississippi River Valley through Wednesday as
deep surface low pressure area moves into the eastern Great Lakes
region, while a ridge begins to build across the West. Strong
north-northwest winds behind a cold front will usher in a drier air
mass, raising fire weather concerns across portions of the central
and southern Plains Wednesday.
...Central and Southern Plains...
Dry, post-frontal flow will encompass much of the central and
southern Plains on Wednesday. Clearing skies will support a
well-mixed, but shallower boundary layer by late afternoon along
with enhanced downslope drying under increasing northwest flow aloft
across southeastern WY, far northeastern CO and the NE Panhandle.
However, expected precipitation, some in the form of snow, in
addition to much cooler temperatures could limit an otherwise
near-critical fire weather concern where northwest winds of 15-25
mph are anticipated across this area. Sufficient widespread RH
reductions below 20 percent during peak insolation continues to be a
limiting factor in a more substantial fire weather risk across
western KS and OK/TX Panhandles, with broad Elevated Highlights
maintained where northerly winds of 20-30 mph and dry fuels align.
Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible across far
northwest TX/Rolling Plains area where afternoon RH briefly falls to
around 15 percent amid breezy north winds of up to 30 mph.
...Far South Texas...
Elevated Highlights were added to portions of far southern TX for
Wednesday. Dry west-northwest flow supported by an exiting short
wave trough and eastward shunting of deeper Gulf moisture will
impact far southern TX Wednesday. Ongoing convection across central
TX is expected to diminish through Wednesday morning, limiting
precipitation across far southern TX. West-northwest winds of 10-20
mph behind an eastward mixing dry line, along with minimum daytime
RH of around 15% should support Elevated fire weather conditions in
dry fuels where minimal rainfall has occurred over the last several
days.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 111932
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
The northern extents of both the Critical and Elevated risk areas
have been shifted southward to account for recent precipitation and
the latest model guidance. Conversely, the risk areas have been
expanded eastward as guidance trends more progressive with the dry
air mass currently blanketing the central and southern Plains. The
new Critical area now encompasses both previous Critical areas with
additional portions of the southern/central Plains also now
included. While the synoptic pattern provides multiple forcing
mechanisms across this broad region, localized areas, particularly
in extreme eastern Colorado, may see transient periods where wind
and RH thresholds are not perfectly coincident.
Across extreme south Texas, the timing of lowest RHs and strongest
winds appear out of sync according to latest forecast guidance.
Thus, this area doesn't meet elevated combined wind and RH
thresholds. Across northern Georgia and the western Carolinas,
post-frontal winds will combine with slightly drier air to bring
localized elevated wind and RH conditions to the region. However,
recent rainfall is a mitigating factor likely keeping forecast
guidance from dropping RHs any lower. Both of these areas will be
monitored as future forecast guidance becomes available.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
A robust mid-level jet at the apex of a building ridge across the
West along with strong surface low pressure feature moving into the
Northern Plains will impart an expansive west-northwest wind field
across the northern and central High Plains D2/Thursday. Lee trough
development extending southward from the parent low over the
central/southern High Plains will support a rapid transition to a
dry return flow across the central and southern Plains, promoting
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the region.
...Central Plains...
Deep layer west-northwest flow and evolution of a well-mixed
boundary layer by peak heating will support strong west-northwest
winds of 25-35 mph across much of eastern WY into the northern High
Plains. Although strong winds are likely, surface RH reductions of
20-30 percent and cloud cover should reduce a more extreme fire
weather environment. Nonetheless, Critical fire weather conditions
where the strong winds, RH close to 20 percent and dry fuels align.
...Southern Plains...
A warmer and drier air mass aided by a downslope regime will evolve
across the southern Plains Thursday. A tightening surface pressure
gradient associated with lee trough expansion will promote broad
west-southwest winds of 15-20 across much of the region. Model
guidance continues to depict a stronger corridor of 20-25 mph winds
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle by D2/Thursday afternoon
aligning with RH as low as 15 percent by peak boundary layer
heating. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across
eastern NM, TX Panhandle and far western OK.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 112207
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
Northwest flow aloft will be in place across much of the CONUS on
Day 3/Friday. Flow becomes more zonal across much of the central
CONUS for Day 4/Saturday as the first indications of a upper level
shortwave trough drops through the Pacific Northwest. By Day
5/Sunday, this trough digs significantly southward over the central
Plains and reaches the southern Appalachian Mountains by Day
6/Monday before retreating northward again on Day 7/Tuesday over the
Eastern Seaboard. The latest forecast guidance continues to dig the
trough farther south with successive runs, suggesting some
uncertainty related to the trough's evolution as it moves eastward.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS
while the Great Plains remain between the two features under
northwest flow. Forecast guidance continues to show the upper level
high strengthening well above seasonal norms generally centered over
Arizona Day 8/Wednesday and beyond.
On Day 3/Friday, downslope flow off the central and southern Rocky
Mountains will continue. Minimal changes were made to the 40%
probabilities for this day. Forecast guidance continues to show wind
and RH values falling within elevated criteria. Over the southern
and central Appalachians, there remains significant differences in
forecast guidance as to how dry surface air will become under the
post-frontal environment not mention preceding rainfall. This will
be watched with future issuances.
On Day 4/Saturday, the latest forecast guidance indicates a slightly
more southerly track associated with the aforementioned deep trough.
This will allow for stronger winds to impact much of the state of
New Mexico, thus necessitating a 70% area of critical conditions.
The limiting factor keeping the outlook area from being drawn
farther west was the high fuel moistures across extreme western New
Mexico into Arizona and Utah where wind and RHs are expected to meet
criteria. However, this event will serve to pre-condition fuels in
these areas. Farther north through the Front Range, yet another day
of downslope winds will need to be watched for trends toward a
potential mountain wave setup.
On Day 5/Sunday, on the back side of the trough, expect northwest
flow to provide another day of strong winds associated with
persistent dry air again over southeastern New Mexico and much of
west Texas. The 40% area was moved slightly south over this region
with a 70% area also introduced over extreme southeast New Mexico
and portions of nearby west Texas.
Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will serve to cure
fuels over the course of several consecutive days across the
southern half of the western CONUS through the outlook period.
Regardless of winds, RHs would suggest extended burn periods across
these areas given receptive fuels.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/11/2026
|
