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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230645

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
   WYOMING...FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level troughing across the Southwest will lift north into the
   Intermountain West today, with a belt of enhanced west to
   southwesterly flow overspreading the northern/central Rockies. A
   surface low will deepen across Montana, with increasing
   southwesterly surface gradients resulting in strengthening surface
   southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Elevated to
   Critical fire weather conditions will be likely ahead of the front
   for portions of the Northern High Plains. 

   ...Northern High Plains...
   The strengthening of the surface winds in combination with downslope
   warming/drying will result in a period of Elevated to Critical fire
   weather conditions across portions of northeastern WY, southeastern
   MT, and western SD. Within these regions, afternoon relative
   humidity reductions to around 15-25% will overlap with sustained
   southwesterly winds at 20-30 mph. Additionally, above normal
   temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s F are forecast. A Critical
   delineation was maintained across portions of northeastern WY,
   southeastern MT, and western SD where ensemble guidance continues to
   show highest probabilities of sustained critical fire weather
   conditions amid drying fuels (70-75th percentile ERCs). Broader
   Elevated fire weather is expected from north-central Wyoming into
   the Dakotas.

   ...Georgia...
   Dry northeasterly flow is expected across portions of southern
   Georgia this afternoon. Though wind speeds are likely to remain
   below elevated thresholds, increased initial attack activity
   associated with existing dry fuels will remain a concern.

   ..Thornton.. 10/23/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230648

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Saturday. A
   cold front will bring cooler conditions and increasing relative
   humidity across the Northern High Plains. Breezy northeast winds
   will overlap dry fuels across portions of southern Georgia Saturday
   afternoon. Current forecast guidance indicates that afternoon RHs
   will struggle to fall below 40-45% where winds are anticipated to be
   the strongest (10-15 mph), precluding the need for any drawn areas.

   ..Thornton.. 10/23/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222128

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0428 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   An upper-level high will continue nudging eastward from central into
   eastern portions of the CONUS ahead of a significant trough
   impacting the West. This pattern will continue near-normal
   temperatures amid dry conditions over much of the Southeast US.
   Vegetation in this area will become increasingly vulnerable to
   burning, especially across the southern Appalachian Mountains and
   the lower Mississippi River Valley, where ERCs are forecast to reach
   the 90-95th percentiles. While generally weak winds will limit the
   overall fire threat over much of the Southeast, breezy northeast
   winds over dry fuels of southern Georgia on Day 3/Saturday are worth
   noting. However, current forecast guidance indicates that afternoon
   RHs on Day 3/Saturday will struggle to fall below 40-45% where winds
   are anticipated to be the strongest (10-15 mph), precluding the need
   for any drawn areas.

   Meanwhile, a significant trough will bring widespread precipitation
   to much of the western US preceding and lingering into Day
   3/Saturday. This trough will then continue northeastward across the
   central Plains before lifting into the Great Lakes region by
   mid-next-week. This progression is likely to provide significant
   rainfall to portions of the central Plains while once again leaving
   portions of the northern High Plains (over parts of Wyoming and
   eastern Montana) with little to no accumulation. While no major fire
   weather concerns are on the horizon Day 3/Saturday or beyond, this
   area will be watched closely should additional wind events
   materialize.

   ..Stearns.. 10/22/2026
      




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