ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180528

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper ridging will expand farther into the Intermountain West on Day
   2/Wednesday, supporting hot and dry conditions amid generally
   lighter winds. Deeper monsoonal moisture will remain embedded within
   the Desert Southwest, but residual mid-level moisture in the Great
   Basin could support a few isolated showers in the higher terrain. In
   the southern Plains, a weak frontal boundary will sag into the Texas
   Panhandle and Oklahoma throughout the day. Models vary on the timing
   of the front, and progression will largely depend upon thunderstorm
   outflow across southwestern Kansas on Day 1/Tuesday
   evening/overnight. Nevertheless, a deeply mixed profile will lead to
   another day of high temperatures in the 100s F and RH values of
   15-20% ahead of the front, promoting locally elevated fire weather
   concerns amid a drought stressed fuelscape.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/18/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172200

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A ridge continues to slowly build over the Great Basin to start the
   extended forecast period. The pressure gradient will tighten on Day
   4/Thursday as a trough approaches the west CONUS coast. A mid-level
   low pressure system will near the Pacific Northwest coast on Day
   5/Friday as the upper-level jet max peaks over northern CA and
   southern OR. This will provide synoptic lift to portions of
   north-central OR and then much of central WA under the left exit
   region of the jet streak on the afternoon of Day 5/Friday. The
   trough will begin to lift northeastward as it becomes slightly
   negatively-tilted progressing into Day 6/Saturday. High pressure
   remains in place over much of the southwestern half of the CONUS
   with shortwave trough passages periodically moving across the crest
   of the high through the northern states. While slight differences in
   timing of the aforementioned trough exist, the overall pattern
   evolution remains similar amongst various ensemble forecast
   guidance.

   ...Pacific Northwest/Northern California/Great Basin...
   The Pacific Northwest and immediately neighboring areas of northern
   California and the Great Basin will remain foci through much of the
   extended forecast. Starting on Day 4/Thursday and continuing through
   Day 6/Saturday, expect multiple consecutive days of gusty
   southwesterly winds combined with warm and dry weather as the
   aforementioned large trough approaches from the west. Near-normal
   conditions in the short-term followed by increasing above-normal
   temperatures Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday will culminate in
   a cold front passage on Day 6/Saturday as the trough approaches.
   Given the jet aloft and surface conditions that would support deep
   daytime mixing, a favorable pattern remains in place for dry and
   breezy weather to overlap very dry fuels across northeastern CA,
   southern OR, and northwestern NV; thus, 40% Critical probabilities
   were maintained on Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday. Given the
   aforementioned upper-level support, limited (but sufficient enough
   to support deep instability) moisture, and dry fuels still in place
   over much of the area immediately east of the Cascades, an area of
   10% Dry Thunderstorm risk was introduced over much of the central
   and northeastern Pacific Northwest region on Day 5/Friday, which may
   linger through the night in some areas. This dry thunderstorm
   potential may reemerge on Day 6/Saturday, particularly across far
   northeastern WA, northern ID, and far western MT, but precipitation
   received on Day 5/Friday will preclude an additional area for now.

   ..Stearns.. 08/17/2026