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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 250606
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
A sub-tropical moisture plume will continue to progress eastward
across the Interior West today. This feature will provide a focus
for both wet and dry thunderstorms from southeastern ID though the
western half of CO and northwest NM into northeast AZ and the
eastern 2/3 of UT. On the western fringe of this potential
thunderstorm activity, mid-level west/southwest flow will combine
with drier air, leading to a well-mixed boundary layer. Farther
north, closer to the incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest, a
cold front will tighten the surface pressure gradient leading to
southwest flow over dry fuels there.
...Great Basin, Southwest, and central Rockies...
Thunderstorm coverage, particularly over western CO, will likely be
greater than what occurred on Wednesday with slightly less
precipitable water available as moisture progresses farther inland.
However, given overnight rainfall and fuels becoming slightly less
dry, lightning ignition efficiency is likely to decrease going into
today across many of the areas covered by the Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm risk. Thus, the less favorable fuel conditions will
balance the somewhat more favorable atmospheric environment and
preclude any areas of potentially scattered dry thunderstorms. Given
the slightly drier vertical profiles and remaining sub-cloud dry
layer, any storms that do form will have potential for gusty outflow
winds. (See the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for additional
details.) Additionally, pyrocumulus development remains highly
possible with pyrocumulonimbus not out of the question if fire
activity can provide sufficient surface heating.
Over much of eastern NV and portions of western UT, southwest flow
aloft over hotter and drier surface conditions will lead to Elevated
wind/RH conditions. In this region, expect winds to be southwest to
westerly at 15-20 mph amid minimum RHs ranging from 10-20 percent.
...Pacific Northwest...
Farther northwest over WA and portions of OR east of the Cascades,
west to southwest flow will promote strong downslope winds and dry
conditions. Southwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph will
combine with 10-15% RH to support Elevated fire weather concerns
there as well. A cold front will push through the Columbia Basin
this evening into the overnight hours, bringing increased
precipitation chances and cooler temperatures.
..Stearns.. 06/25/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 250608
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UTAH INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UTAH...EASTERN
NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO...
...Synopsis...
A robust fire weather pattern is expected across an expansive
portion of the Intermountain West starting on Day 2/Friday and
continuing through the weekend. Preceding dry thunderstorms on
Wednesday and Thursday will be followed by exceptionally dry and
windy conditions to promote significant fire weather concerns for
any new ignitions, lightning holdovers, and ongoing large fires
across the western CONUS.
A seasonally abnormal trough and associated mid-level jet will move
over the Pacific Northwest on Day 2/Friday, causing significant fire
weather concerns for the Great Basin and much of the Southwest. The
latest forecast guidance suggests a corridor of strong southwest
winds beginning Day 2/Friday afternoon across northern AZ through
southwest WY. At the surface, southwest winds of 25-35 mph are
likely to develop amid very dry RHs of 5-15% over the corridor of
highest concern. Accordingly, an area of Extremely Critical fire
weather risk was introduced over portions of central and southwest
UT, northwest AZ, and far southeast Nevada. Over the surrounding
areas of those states as well as far western CO, southwestern WY,
far western NM, and southeast CA, where winds are slightly less
intense, a Critical to Elevated wind/RH risk area will also exist.
Several days of poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual
gusty winds will further intensify the fire environment.
..Stearns.. 06/25/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 242159
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust fire weather pattern is expected across an expansive
portion of the Intermountain West through the middle of next week.
Preceding dry thunderstorms on Days 1-2/Wednesday-Thursday followed
by multiple days of exceptionally dry and breezy conditions will
promote significant fire weather concerns for any new ignitions,
lightning holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the western
CONUS.
Forecast guidance continues to show a major, seasonally abnormal
trough on Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday, posing considerable fire
weather concerns for the Great Basin and much of the Southwest. A
strong cold front and accompanying wind shift (from broadly
southwesterly to northerly) will push through the region sometime on
Sunday. This wind shift and associated wind gusts may further
exacerbate ongoing wildfires and control efforts, and will be
monitored closely as timing is better resolved in future outlooks.
...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday...
An unseasonably strong mid-level jet overspreads much of the
Interior West late this week as an upper trough amplifies across the
Northwestern U.S., scouring out remaining meaningful atmospheric
moisture across the Southwest. Latest forecast guidance suggests a
corridor of stronger southwest winds of 25-35 mph developing under
the stronger jet across northern AZ into the Great Basin on Day
3/Friday, shifting to northeastern AZ into the CO Plateau by Day
4/Saturday. The potential for extremely critical fire weather
conditions may exist where single-digit RH and very strong sustained
winds overlap receptive fuels that did not receive appreciable
precipitation earlier in the week. Several days of poor overnight
humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds will further intensify
the fire environment.
Critical fire weather conditions will persist across northern AZ and
the CO Plateau on Day 5/Sunday as the mid-level jet translates
eastward to the northern Plains. Primary changes for this outlook
were the introduction of 70% Critical probabilities on Day 5/Sunday
as confidence continues to increase in an appreciable multi-day wind
event, impacting ongoing wildfire growth and the emergence of any
nascent wildfires born from thunderstorm activity mid-week.
...Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday...
Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing across the West should support a prolonged fire weather
threat across the CO Plateau, Great Basin and parts of the
Southwest. As such, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained.
Fuels are expected to remain quite receptive through the extended
forecast period with minimal-to-no chances of precipitation this
weekend into early next week.
As high pressure builds over the central and eastern CONUS, above
normal temperatures and overall drier conditions may encourage fire
weather concerns to emerge where receptive fuels exist.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/24/2026
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