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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071624
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT
BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...
...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies...
Dry southwesterly flow ahead of a surface cold front draped over the
Great Basin and related upper-level trough moving into the Northern
Rockies will bring a broad fire weather threat to much of the
Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies today. A corridor
stronger southwest winds of 20-25 mph (locally 30 mph in favored
terrain areas) combined with a deep, dry boundary layer supporting
RH of 5-15% this afternoon will bring Critical fire weather
conditions from northern AZ into southeastern UT, Western Slope of
CO and into south-central WY.
Introduction of some mid-level moisture from the advancing trough, a
weak frontal boundary and presence of a relative mid-level flow
maxima and associated increased shear should bring a dry
thunderstorm potential to portions of central/northeastern UT into
southwestern WY where a dry-sub cloud layer will be maintained.
Isolated high-based thunderstorms with minimal surface rainfall over
dry fuels will present a heightened ignition potential this
afternoon, in addition to dry and breezy conditions. The western
extent of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights was trimmed based on
latest model guidance consensus.
...Snake River Plain...
Cooler, but very dry post-frontal conditions are expected in the
Snake River Plain and adjacent foothills of southern ID today.
Strong westerly winds at the base of the mid-level trough will reach
20-30 mph this afternoon in southern ID. These winds merged with RH
of 5-15% by peak afternoon mixing and dry fuels will bring several
hours of Critical fire weather conditions to the Snake River Plain.
Critical and Elevated highlights were extended slightly eastward
accounting latest forecast guidance.
..Williams.. 06/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
A longwave mid-level trough will remain situated over the
northwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday, with a shortwave
trough moving across the northern Rockies. The attendant surface low
and cold front will result in breezy conditions across portions of
the Great Basin, southwestern CONUS, and northern Rockies with low
RH values and critically dry fuels.
...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies...
Ahead of the cold front, strong vertical mixing and a tight pressure
gradient will result in gusty winds to 25-35 mph along with 5-15%
RH. Poor overnight RH recovery across much of the area is expected
to contribute to critically dry fuels across the region. For these
reasons, a Critical area has been maintained in this outlook.
Additionally, the cold front may provide enough lift and mid-level
moisture for thunderstorm development across portions of Utah to
central Wyoming. Given low precipitable water values and relatively
fast storm motions, some Isolated Dry Thunder may occur in this
region.
...Snake River Plain...
Beneath the departing mid-level jet max, a relatively localized area
of Critical conditions is expected in the Snake River Plain in Idaho
colocated. Here, strong vertical mixing will result in winds of
25-35 mph along with 10-15% RH. Dry fuels in this region mean that a
Critical area is warranted.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 071954
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT
BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies...
A mid/upper trough and associated stronger southwest flow aloft over
the northwestern CONUS will present a broad fire weather concern for
the eastern Great Basin, portions of the Southwest and central
Rockies on Day 2/Monday. Critical highlights remain largely intact
across southeastern NV, northern AZ, southern UT and south-central
WY where southwest winds of 15-25 mph (locally 30 mph) and RH
reductions in the 5-15% range align with receptive fuels. Elevated
highlights were extended into the CO Rockies and San Luis Valley
based on latest forecast guidance and fuels that are trending drier.
...Northwestern New Mexico...
Introduced isolated dry thunderstorm highlights across northwestern
NM for Day 2/Monday. A stream of mid and upper level Pacific
moisture will continue to infiltrate into the Southwest through
Monday morning. Increasing vertical shear at the base of an upper
trough moving through the Northern Rockies, daytime instability and
sufficient moisture aloft will generate high-based convection across
northwestern NM and Upper Rio Grande Valley Monday afternoon and
evening. ERC values in the 90th percentile and above suggests fuels
more receptive to ignition. This moisture plume will be transient,
with a return to dry and breezy conditions for much of the Southwest
and Four Corners region beginning on Tuesday as the upper trough
ejects into the northern Plains.
...Central High Plains...
Adjusted existing isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to reflect
latest forecast guidance and expectation for wetting rains
associated with potentially severe convection across northeastern
CO, NE Panhandle and far eastern WY. Dry lightning risk is still
present upon initial thunderstorm (and nascent rain cores)
development more adjacent to the Laramie Mountains in WY and CO
Front Range in north-central CO.
..Williams.. 06/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
A longwave trough will remain over the northwestern CONUS through
the day on Monday, and a shortwave trough will dig across the
northern Rockies and Great Basin. This will result in breezy
conditions across portions of the Great Basin and the Southwestern
CONUS with low RH in place and dry fuels.
...Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies...
Strong vertical mixing during the afternoon with modest flow aloft
is expected to result in winds of 20-30 mph along with RH near 5-15%
for several hours across this region. Continued poor RH recovery
overnight will contribute to dry fuels. Therefore, a Critical area
is introduced across the area. Surrounding this is an Elevated area,
where winds are generally expected to be near 15-20 mph with 5-15%
RH and receptive fuels.
...Central High Plains...
Upslope flow may provide the lift for convective development Monday
afternoon in the presence of a relatively dry boundary layer.
Precipitable water and storm motions may be a bit marginal, but it
appears a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity may occur, which
warrants an Isolated Dry Thunder area.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 072201
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the northwestern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday
translates eastward towards the Great Lakes by Friday. Dry westerly
flow will gradually subside as the week progresses as the trough
pushes eastward, with a similarly declining scale of fire weather
concerns across the Intermountain West and Southwest. At the
surface, an advancing cold front will bring some relief to the
Interior West midweek, but a dry, post-frontal environment could
present a fire weather threat to Sacramento and Central Valleys in
CA on Day 4/Wednesday. A resurgence in subtropical moisture could
emerge late next week across the Southwest as southerly flow east of
a diffuse upper low in the Pacific, aids in northward moisture
transport of moisture from Baja CA.
...Day 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Intermountain West and Southwest...
The upper trough over the Northwest and associated stronger
mid-level flow should support higher surface southwesterly wind
gusts within a dry, well mixed boundary layer on Day 3/Tuesday
across much portions of the Southwest, Four Corners, northeastward
into the central High Plains. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph with
higher gusts along with sub 10% RH values are most likely across
northern AZ/southern UT eastward into the Four Corners areas where
70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions remain. As
the upper trough slides into the Northern Plains by Day 4/Wednesday,
a 60-70 knot mid-level jet atop dry post-frontal environment will
continue to promote strong surface winds of up to 40 mph across
southern WY where 40% critical probabilities have been extended.
Fire weather concerns remain but shrink for the Four Corners and
adjacent areas for Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday in the wake of the
departing upper trough. Reintroduction of mid/upper level Pacific
moisture from an upper low southwest of CA could bring a dry
thunderstorm threat back into the Southwest as early as Friday.
However, low predictability precludes introduction of dry
thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
...Day 4/Wednesday - Sacramento alley...
Dry northerly flow behind a cold front across northern CA will
present a fire weather concern for portions and the Sacramento
Valley and adjacent foothills where receptive fuels support fire
spread. Sustained north winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity
likely 15% or below Wednesday afternoon prompted introduction of 40%
critical probabilities for the area. The fuelscape remains complex,
with primarily cured/dry grasses supporting fire spread in lower
elevations.
..Williams.. 06/07/2026
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