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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 101632
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track as no changes were made to
the Elevated fire weather risk area over eastern UT into western CO.
For portions of the Ohio River Valley, current RH of 30-40 percent
is expected to be short-lived, as increasing cloud cover and surface
moisture ahead of an approaching cold front reduces broader fire
concerns.
For parts of eastern NM into the Caprock and TX/OK Panhandles, a mix
of wet and dry thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening has the
potential for lightning ignitions as fuels remain receptive.
However, 10-15 kt storm motions, increasing PWATs of 0.7-1.0 in.,
and the expanding coverage of showers this evening precludes the
introduction of a dry thunderstorm risk area. Gusty and erratic
outflow winds are likely with any afternoon thunderstorm, locally
enhancing fire weather concerns for new ignitions and ongoing fires
from yesterday's lightning starts.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Nauslar.. 04/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward today from the eastern Great
Basin into the Great Plains as longwave upper troughing shifts
across the northern Great Lakes region and the Northeast. Meanwhile,
a mid-level shortwave trough will progress northeastward across
California and the western Great Basin while another upper trough
approaches the California coastline behind it. A slow moving cold
front will progress south-southeastward across the Northeast, Ohio
River Valley, and central Great Plains, with surface high pressure
positioned across the Southeast and Great Lakes regions.
...Portions of the Great Basin...
Surface low pressure across the northern Great Basin in conjunction
with high pressure across the Great Lakes/Southeast will promote a
tightened pressure gradient and resultant sustained southerly
surface winds of 15-25 mph across much of the eastern/southern Great
Basin today. Despite increasing mid/high cloud cover, minimum RH
values of 15-20% (locally down to 10%) are forecast during peak
mixing this afternoon. With preconditioned, drying fuels from
Thursday, this combination of winds/RH is expected to support
elevated fire weather concerns today across portions of eastern Utah
into northwestern Colorado. Locally critical conditions may be
possible should stronger surface winds overlap with locally lower RH
values, but these conditions are expected to remain brief should
they materialize. Deep boundary layer mixing and modestly strong
mid-level flow (25-35 kts within the 700-500 mb layer) will also
support the potential for periodic gusts up to 30-35 mph across the
region.
...Portions of the mid/upper Ohio River Valley...
Ahead of an approaching cold front, west-southwesterly sustained
winds of 10 mph (with occasional gusts of 15-20 mph) combined with
RH values dropping to 30-35% are expected to overlap a region of
drying and potentially receptive fuels from northeastern
Kentucky/southern Ohio into northeastern West Virginia and
southeastern Pennsylvania. With ERCs across this region approaching
the 97th percentile, this overlap of winds/RH may support a few
hours of locally elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. A
passing cold front will bring a shift to northerly winds, increasing
moisture, and decreasing winds speeds later this evening, which
should provide some relief to the fire environment. Coupled with low
confidence in widespread sustained winds exceeding 15 mph during the
afternoon, Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 101935
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Elevated fire weather highlights were added for portions eastern WY,
northwestern NE Panhandle, and southwestern SD. As a strengthening
surface low traverses northern MT, tightening surface pressure
gradients and surface lee troughing east of the Rockies will promote
seasonably warm, dry and breezy west-southwesterly flow. RH of 15-20
percent and sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph
(gusts up to 30 mph) atop recently receptive fuels will promote
elevated fire weather concerns. An overlapping area of Isolated Dry
Thunder has also been introduced, extending farther into
northeastern CO and the western NE Panhandle. Large scale ascent
associated with an approaching shortwave trough is expected to
provide enough forcing in a region of adequate instability (200-350
J/kg MUCAPE) for afternoon and evening isolated to possibly
scattered thunderstorms. Provided a near 3 km deep dry sub-cloud
layer, gusty and erratic winds will further enhance the fire
environment with any new fire starts.
Isolated thunderstorms are likely across portions of northern AZ
into central/eastern UT and western CO. While elevated winds/RH and
a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across these areas,
anticipated rainfall and marginal fuels preclude the introduction of
Elevated and IsoDryT areas at this time.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Nauslar.. 04/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift from the Great Plains to the eastern
CONUS as longwave troughing shifts offshore of the Northeast on
D2/Saturday. A closed upper-level low will simultaneously approach
the California coastline while a mid-level shortwave trough
traverses northeastward across the Great Basin and northern Great
Plains. A cold front will slowly move southward across the
Mid-Atlantic while a warm front lifts northeastward across the Great
Plains. Surface high pressure will remain in place across the
Southeast and Great Lakes.
...Portions of the Great Basin...
Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph may briefly
overlap reduced RH values of 15-20% across the eastern/southern
Great Basin. This may promote the potential for locally elevated
fire weather concerns across portions of eastern Utah and
northeastern Arizona Saturday afternoon where fuels will have been
preconditioned by a couple of days of dry, breezy conditions.
Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time, however, due to
the potential for sporadic showers during the afternoon as well as
uncertainty regarding lingering mid/high cloud cover, which may
inhibit greater boundary layer mixing and thus temper RH reductions.
Trends will continue to be monitored for future outlook issuances.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 092212
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
On Day 3/Saturday through Day 4/Sunday, an upper-level low is
forecast to move onshore of the northern California coast as an
upper-level ridge strengthens over the central and eastern CONUS. A
lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 5/Monday, slowly
shifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day
7/Wednesday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of
precipitation across much of the western and central US, which would
temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Continued upper-level
ridging through Day 6/Tuesday across the eastern CONUS should
promote above normal temperatures and drying conditions for much of
the region, though increased chances of precipitation return towards
the middle of next week as the upper trough shifts east.
...Ohio River Valley - Day 4/Sunday...
Increasing potential for 10-15 mph southerly winds and 30-40 percent
RH will present potential fire weather concerns across northeastern
AR into portions of the Ohio River Valley. Parts of this region
range from D2-D4 drought, and given widespread observed ERCs above
the 90th percentile, 40 percent probabilities for Critical fire
weather have been introduced. The expanse of the drawn area may be
adjusted in future outlooks as guidance evolves the northward extent
of gulf moisture advection.
...Southern/Central Plains - Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday...
Fire weather conditions may return on Day 4/Sunday as a more potent
shortwave moves across the High Plains. With uncertainty in
precipitation accumulation and the extent of wetting rainfall
earlier in the forecast period, probabilities have been withheld on
Day 4/Sunday for now. Beneath the large upper trough, tight surface
pressure gradients Day 5/Monday-Day 6/Tuesday will further enhance
dry and windy conditions behind the dryline. 40 percent
probabilities of Critical fire weather have been introduced on both
days to account for these concerns.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026
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