United States & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast

U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast

Map is in operation from early April through October 31

U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160531

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level low with an attendant mid-level jet will pivot into
   the Pacific Northwest today. This feature, in addition to monsoon
   moisture and daytime instability, will yield a mix of wet/dry
   showers and thunderstorms across much of eastern WA and the ID
   Panhandle today. A deepening lee surface trough across eastern OR/WA
   in response to the advancing upper wave should allow for drier
   southwest flow (and increasing fire weather concerns) to return to
   portions of northeastern CA, far northwestern NV and south-central
   OR this afternoon. Dry, northwest flow across the central/southern
   CA coastal ranges and adjacent Central Valley will promote another
   day of elevated fire weather concerns. Broad development of isolated
   showers and thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West is
   expected today with deeper monsoon moisture in place. This
   convection should be slower moving and mainly terrain bound,
   limiting lightning ignition potential.

   ...Washington and far northern ID Panhandle...
   A 50-60 knot mid-level jet ahead of a parent upper low will push
   into the WA/OR Cascades through the day. Forcing for ascent amid
   plentiful monsoon moisture, evolving daytime instability and
   resultant fast north/northeast storm motions will limit
   precipitation in some rain cores. However, the most likely outcome
   will be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms through today.
   Nonetheless, fuels remain receptive with ERCs hovering around the
   90th percentile which should facilitate some new ignitions (with
   nascent fires from overnight thunderstorms already occurring across
   north-central OR). A more pronounced dry thunderstorm environment
   emerges across northeastern NV and southwestern ID this afternoon,
   but recent rainfall has mitigated fuel receptivity which should
   reduce the overall threat.

   ...Portions of central and southern California and Central Valley...

   Breezy westerly/northwesterly winds and enhanced downslope drying
   over portions of central and southern CA is expected again today,
   albeit on a slightly reduced scale. Latest model guidance shows
   lower HREF/REFS probabilities of sustained winds of 15 mph or
   greater across the Central Valley, confining the threat to adjoining
   coastal ranges and terrain gap features this afternoon where RH will
   near 15%. As such, trimmed eastern extent of elevated highlights
   across the Central Valley.

   ...Northeastern California, northwestern Nevada and south-central
   Oregon...
   Considerably drier southwest flow will encompass northeastern CA,
   northwestern NV and southeastern OR, aided by the advancing Pacific
   Northwest upper low and related lee surface trough. West/southwest
   winds of around 15 mph and RH as low as 10% during peak boundary
   layer mixing will promote an elevated fire weather threat this
   afternoon where recent rainfall was minimal.

   ..Williams.. 07/16/2026

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 160531 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will amplify over much of the Intermountain West and central U.S. Evacuation of deeper monsoon moisture hastened by dry southwest flow south of a Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of CA, OR and NV Friday. Similarly, daily shower and thunderstorm activity will generally be shifted farther east with dry conditions returning to the Pacific Northwest. ...Northeastern California, south-central OR and far northwestern NV... Dry southwest flow aloft coupled with a diffuse surface low in the Great Basin will enhance low-level southwest winds across northeastern CA and adjacent OR and NV areas. Efficient boundary layer mixing under sunny skies will manifest in southwest winds at the surface of around 15 mph during Friday afternoon. The winds coupled with RH of 10-15% will bring an elevated fire weather concern to the area amid dry fuels. ...Columbia Basin... Dry south to southwest flow is expected to return Friday across portions of the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley as an upper low ejects into British Columbia. South/southwest winds of around 15 mph and RH dropping to 15% should briefly elevate fire weather concerns Friday. However, preceding rainfall could mitigate the fire weather threat, precluding introduction of highlights for this outlook issuance. ..Williams.. 07/16/2026

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152100

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   ...Discussion...
   A strong upper ridge will persist over the central/northern Plains
   through the end of this week into the early weekend. Following a
   northward progressing shortwave trough along the Pacific Northwest
   coast on Day 3/Friday, ensembles indicate the upper ridge will then
   translate westward to encompass much of the western CONUS while the
   eastern US is expected to remain in a troughing pattern. Daily
   chances of thunderstorm activity are possible in the extended
   forecast period across the Intermountain West as monsoonal moisture
   advects northward once again. 

   Strong south-southwesterly flow aloft behind a shortwave trough
   bypassing the Pacific Northwest will encourage dry and windy
   conditions across northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, and
   south-central Oregon on Day 3/Friday. Preceding days of
   thunderstorms and pockets of heavier rainfall could alleviate some
   fuel concerns; however, a returning dry airmass and gusty winds may
   encourage any lightning holdovers to emerge, maintaining 40%
   Critical probabilities. In addition, as the exiting shortwave trough
   becomes further removed, an increasingly dry boundary layer amid
   locally breezy winds may allow locally elevated fire weather
   conditions to materialize through central OR/WA on Days
   3-4/Friday-Saturday. Highlights/probabilities may be needed in
   future outlooks, contingent upon rainfall accumulation early in the
   forecast period.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/15/2026

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