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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 121618
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Fire weather concerns remain limited for today. Breezy and
marginally dry conditions are beginning to develop behind a weak
cold front across portions of western TX. 15-20 mph winds coupled
with RH reductions into the 25-35% range may support a few areas of
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon - mainly along the
I-20 corridor. However, fuels across this region remain only
modestly dry with ERC values near the 60-65th percentiles. As such,
the overall fire weather potential remains too limited for
highlights.
..Moore.. 12/12/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude upper trough will be positioned from the
northern Plains into the East today. In the West, a stationary upper
ridge will be present. Cooler surface temperatures will exist across
much of the CONUS east of the Divide. A modest cold front will push
into the southern High Plains. Locally dry and breezy conditions can
be expected in portions of the South Plains/Permian Basin. RH
reductions will be rather marginal as will fuel dryness, precluding
highlights.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120540
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On Saturday, an upper shortwave trough is expected to amplify in the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This will push colder air southward.
Some increase in mid-level winds will occur in the central High
Plains into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface low will
develop/evolve southward within the High Plains. Dry and breezy
conditions are probable in eastern Colorado into northeast New
Mexico. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible
at least briefly over generally unreceptive fuels. Winds will be
westerly/northwesterly but shift to northerly through the day as the
surface low/cold front moves southward. Colder air will lag the
shift to northerly winds.
..Wendt.. 12/12/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 112059
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward and amplify over the West
this weekend, but weak upper troughing and embedded upper lows are
likely to traverse across the Intermountain West and eventually over
the southern/central Plains early to mid-next week. A strong jet
along with another strong atmospheric river will likely impinge on
the northwestern US early next week, with heights forecast to lower
and the jet shifting farther south across the West mid to late next
week. The southern half of the West, southern/central Plains, and
portions of the Southeast are likely to receive little to no
precipitation during the forecast period.
...Southern/Central High Plains...
Locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern New
Mexico into west Texas Day 3/Saturday ahead/along an approaching
cold front. Rain chances are likely to remain confined to portions
of south/east Texas and along portions of the Gulf Coast into
portions of the Deep South. Most of west/north Texas and portions of
central Texas are likely to remain rain free, further curing fuels
in these areas.
As stronger flow aloft spreads across the West and into the Rockies
Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday, chances for critical fire weather
conditions increase. Increased downslope flow and lee troughing will
increase winds amid a dry airmass around mid-next week for multiple
days. The timing/location of these conditions still remain
uncertain, precluding introducing probabilities at this time.
However, if forecast trends hold, probabilities for critical
conditions will likely increase enough around mid-next week on
portions of the southern/central High Plains, with the southern High
Plains currently favored, to include risk areas in future outlooks.
...Portions of the Southeast...
Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of Georgia, South
Carolina, Alabama, and Florida Day 4/Sunday as a cold front pushes
through the Southeast. Additionally, post-frontal dry conditions are
likely to remain into Day 6/Tuesday across portions of the
Southeast. However, given the recent precipitation and limited
overlap of elevated/locally critical winds/RH, no probabilities were
included.
..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025
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