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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 240548
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UTAH...
...Synopsis...
...Central and Western Utah and the Interior West...
An upper-level shortwave trough entering the Great Basin will
trigger high-based showers and scattered dry thunderstorms today.
Thunderstorm activity will begin in southern Utah this morning
before spreading across the larger region as daytime heating
supports more widespread instability aided by topographic lift.
Critically dry fuels and sub-cloud dryness will at least initially
create an environment for lightning ignitions and potentially very
strong outflow winds. Precipitable water values will climb toward
1.0 inch by evening, transitioning storms from dry to a wet and dry
mix with a chance of localized wetting rains along the Interstate 15
corridor. However, gusty outflows will threaten active wildfires,
and pyrocumulus development remains highly possible with
pyrocumulonimbus not out of the question if surface heating from
fire activity can maintain momentum. Isolated dry thunderstorms with
quick storm motions of up to 30 mph and generally slightly drier
moisture profiles will also impact the Four Corners, eastern Great
Basin, Wyoming Basin, and the central Idaho and southwestern Montana
mountains.
...Northwestern Colorado, Northeastern Utah, and Southern Wyoming...
Ahead of this afternoon's incoming moisture plume, strong 45 to 50
knot mid-level flow will produce a window of elevated fire weather
conditions. Expect sustained west-southwest winds around 15 mph
paired with minimum relative humidity values down to 10 to 15
percent over dry fuels before humidity values begin increasing late
in the evening.
...Central and Eastern Nevada...
On the western flank of the aforementioned moisture plume and
coinciding with a mid-level shortwave trough, 25-35 knot mid-level
flow will be efficiently mixed down to the surface given the hot and
dry boundary layer. This will result in sustained west to southwest
winds around 15 mph paired with minimum relative humidity values
down to 10 to 15 percent.
While this sub-tropical moisture will briefly temper the severe
dryness over the next couple of days, a much larger concern exists.
Any lightning holdover ignitions from storms today and tomorrow
could rapidly expand later this week. Forecast guidance continues to
show a major, seasonally abnormal trough arriving Friday into
Saturday, bringing widespread and significant critical fire weather
conditions with southwest winds gusting above 40 mph ahead of a
strong cold front.
..Stearns.. 06/24/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 240550
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
A sub-tropical moisture plume will continue shifting eastward across
the Interior West by Thursday, focusing both wet and dry
thunderstorm potential from southwestern WY through the Four Corners
region. Scattered to isolated high-based thunderstorms will initiate
across much of the drawn area on Day 2/Thursday afternoon. Depending
on location/elevation and antecedent conditions from the previous
day's convection, this activity will likely present as a mix of wet
and dry storms. Given a dry sub-cloud layer, supportive of
evaporation, the probability of new lightning ignitions over still
receptive fuels will remain at least moderate - especially in areas
that receive less or no rainfall from Day 1/Wednesday.
Simultaneously, farther west, an intensifying trough over the West
will interact with what's left of the ridge over the southwest to
bring dry southwest flow to the western Great Basin. This region
will see dry flow cut underneath the deeper Pacific moisture,
leading to Elevated fire weather conditions where winds will be
southwest to westerly at 15-20 mph amid minimum RHs ranging from
10-20 percent.
While this sub-tropical moisture will briefly temper the severe
dryness over the next couple of days, a much larger concern exists.
Any lightning holdover ignitions from storms today and tomorrow
could rapidly expand later this week. Forecast guidance continues to
show a major, seasonally abnormal trough arriving Friday into
Saturday, bringing widespread and significant critical fire weather
conditions with southwest winds gusting above 40 mph ahead of a
strong cold front.
..Stearns.. 06/24/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 232200
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust fire weather pattern is expected across an expansive
portion of the Intermountain West through the extended forecast
period. Dry thunderstorm potential mid-week followed by several days
of exceptionally dry and breezy conditions will promote significant
fire weather concerns for any new ignitions, lightning holdovers,
and ongoing large fires across the western CONUS.
An embedded shortwave trough and attendant plume of mid/upper level
sub-tropical moisture translates eastward into the Interior West by
Day 3/Thursday, maintaining dry thunderstorm potential across the CO
Plateau and Four Corners. An amplifying wave pattern emerges late in
the week with strong and dry southwest flow posing broad and
considerable fire weather concerns for the eastern Great Basin and
much of the Southwest on Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday. Troughing across
the West with a building ridge over the eastern U.S. should sustain
fire weather conditions for much of the Southwest through early next
week under enhanced southwest flow and dry conditions.
...Day 3/Thursday...
An upper-level wave will edge towards the Northern Rockies on Day
3/Thursday, aiding in isolated thunderstorm development across the
CO Plateau into southwestern WY. New ignitions are possible with
receptive fuels in place and limited surface precipitation
attributed to a dry, sub-cloud layer supportive of evaporation.
Additionally, drier southwest flow, west of the deeper Pacific
moisture, will yield a fire weather threat to the eastern Great
Basin. A 40% Critical probability area was maintained for eastern NV
and west-central UT.
...Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday...
An unseasonably strong mid-level jet overspreads much of the
Interior West late this week as an upper trough amplifies across the
Northwestern U.S., scouring out remaining meaningful atmospheric
moisture across the Southwest. Latest forecast guidance suggests a
corridor of stronger southwest winds of 25-35 mph developing under
the stronger jet across the southern Great Basin into northern AZ on
Day 4/Friday, shifting into southeastern UT and the CO Western Slope
by Day 5/Saturday. Primary changes for this outlook were the
expansion of 70% Critical probability areas for both days as
confidence continues to increase in an appreciable multi-day wind
event, potentially impacting nascent wildfires born from
thunderstorm activity mid-week.
...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday...
Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing across the West should support a prolonged fire weather
threat across the CO Plateau, Four Corners and parts of the
Southwest through early next week. As such, 40% Critical
probabilities have been added for Day 8/Tuesday given increasing
forecast confidence in longer term ensemble guidance. Fuels are
expected to remain quite receptive through the extended forecast
period with only some reprieve in isolated areas that receive
appreciable rainfall in the Days 2-3/Wednesday-Thursday time frame.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/23/2026
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