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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 100744
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over the Rockies as a broad mid-level
trough traverses the Northeast, and a second upper trough
overspreads the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and an
associated cooler airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of
the Rockies, and is expected to limit wildfire-spread potential.
..Squitieri.. 02/10/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 100745
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist over the Plains as a mid-level trough
amplifies off of the East Coast, and another upper trough impinges
on the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Surface high pressure will
remain in place east of the Mississippi River, with surface
troughing and some moist return flow likely over the Plains. The
overall large-scale pattern suggests that quiescent fire weather
conditions will be the norm across the CONUS on Wednesday, with no
fire weather highlights needed.
..Squitieri.. 02/10/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 092141
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
Progressive mid-level flow will continue over the US through next
week. Strong westerly winds will continue to increase over the
Rockies and Plains through this week and into the weekend. This will
encourage westerly downslope flow and lee troughing late this week.
By this weekend a more substantial trough should emerge and deepen
over the southern US. Some potential for more active fire-weather
conditions appears possible over southern TX through this weekend.
The active toughing pattern should continue into next week.
...Southern High Plains D4/Thursday...
With zonal flow increasing over parts of the southern Rockies mid to
late week, a shortwave trough is expected to move into the southern
High Plains. Strong westerly flow will support the development of a
weak lee low D4/Thursday. South of the low, enhanced westerly
downslope flow is expected from eastern NM into west TX. Bolstered
by stronger westerly winds and deep mixing, afternoon gusts of 15-25
mph appear possible. The strong winds will likely overlap with a
warm and dry air mass with relative humidity below 20%. With little
recent rainfall in the area, the overlap of dry fuels and elevated
fire-weather conditions appear possible before a cold front moves
south into D5/Friday. A 40% area has been added for D4/Thursday.
...Rio Grande Valley and South Texas D5/Friday-D7/Sunday...
The more prominent upper trough over Baja CA and northern MEX will
translate eastward D5/Friday into the weekend. Strong ascent will
overspread the far Southern Plains into parts of South TX and the
Rio Grande. A lee low will move off the MEX High Plateau supporting
inland moisture advection over parts of south TX. Widespread
precipitation (projected QPF in the 0.5-2 inch range) is expected to
develop north of the surface low along a stalled front across
portions of central TX into OK and the mid to lower MS Valley. This
should largely limit fire-weather potential farther north.
D6/Saturday, dry and breezy surface conditions may develop behind
the departing low from the TX Big Bend to the Rio Grande Valley.
Trailing the low, a Pacific Front will move east with much drier air
mass behind it. Strong west/northwesterly flow on the backside of
the low may mix down increasing surface winds to 20 mph. This could
support the potential for fire-weather conditions
D6/Saturday. However, model spread on the potential for
precipitation, the frontal passage, and impacts to area fuels
remains too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time.
By D7/Sunday, the upper trough and Surface low will move eastward. A
temporarily cooler air mass will fill in, before southerly winds
start to build again into next week. Strong troughing over the West
should continue, spreading strong flow aloft over parts of the
Southwest and Plains. This appears likely to support a general
increase in fire-weather concerns with time through the remainder of
the extended forecast period.
..Lyons/Elizalde-Garcia.. 02/09/2026
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