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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 100634
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will persist today across parts of the western
CONUS. Early morning water-vapor imagery continues to depict a broad
upper ridge over the Southwest, and this feature is expected to
remain in place through at least the next 48 hours. As a result,
low-level mass responses will be muted with generally weak gradient
winds for most locations west of the Rockies. Nonetheless, some
areas will still experience terrain-driven wind speeds reaching or
exceeding Elevated thresholds with a very dry air mass.
Additionally, monsoonal moisture continues to spread northward
through the Great Basin and Four Corners region, and will support
another day of isolated dry thunderstorms.
...Great Basin...
Breezy conditions (sustained winds around 15 mph) with RH minimums
in the teens and low 20s are expected across a broad swath of the
northern Great Basin again today, largely heating and deep mixing of
a dry low-level air mass in place across the region. A few regions
will likely see more prolonged and somewhat widespread elevated
conditions with sustained winds closer to 20 mph where topographic
influences will locally augment low-level flow (namely in the lee of
the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV and through the Snake
River Valley in eastern ID). Fuels across the broader region remain
receptive to fire starts (as evident by scattered new starts over
the past 24 hours), and will support another day of fire weather
concerns.
...California Central Valley...
An onshore flow regime will persist for today along the CA coast,
which should favor downslope flow into western portions of the
Central Valley. Dry conditions should prevail again today with
afternoon RH values in the teens to low 20s. Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible where breezy downslope winds can overlap
with dry conditions.
...Southern High Plains...
Modest lee troughing will remain in place along the High Plains for
today, which will maintain south to southwesterly low-level winds
across the OK/TX Panhandles and adjacent portions of southwest KS
and northwest OK. Based on recent ensemble guidance and observed
winds yesterday (which featured a similar synoptic regime),
sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with gusts up to 30-40
mph possible. Additionally, forecast high temperatures are expected
to once again exceed 100 F with afternoon RH values in the teens to
low 20s. These hot, dry, and windy conditions should support a swath
of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
00 UTC RAOBs from across the Great Basin and Four Corners region
sampled very steep mid-level lapse rates within a plume of rich
monsoonal moisture. PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch were noted across
much of the region and will promote a mix of wet and dry
thunderstorms for most of AZ, UT, and NV. However, drier conditions
are noted on the northern fringe of the moisture plume and should
support a higher probability for predominantly dry thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening - mainly across northern NV into portions
of ID and WY. Given a receptive fuel landscape already in place,
lightning ignitions will be a concern.
..Moore.. 08/10/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 100657
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
Areas of fire weather concerns will persist into Tuesday across the
northern Great Basin as well as across portions of the southern High
Plains. The upper ridge currently in place across the Southwest will
remain in place through Tuesday. Although some de-amplification is
anticipated by early Wednesday, the overall synoptic regime is
expected to largely remain in place and will continue to promote
weak low-level gradient winds for most regions. Nonetheless, some
areas of the northern Great Basin will continue to experience
terrain augmentations to the wind field that should support breezy
conditions within a dry air mass.
...Northern Great Basin...
Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist for much of the
northern Great Basin on Tuesday with deep boundary-layer mixing and
RH minimums near/below 15% likely by late afternoon. Although
gradient winds will be modest (10-15 mph), stronger zonal flow near
the top of the boundary layer will likely mix to the surface and
manifest as frequent gusts between 15-25 mph. Stronger, but more
localized winds are expected within the lee of the northern Sierra
Nevada, though the Snake River Valley in eastern Idaho, and across
eastern WY where terrain influences will promote winds between 15-20
mph.
...Southern High Plains...
A weak lee cyclone is forecast to migrate into the central Plains by
Tuesday afternoon due to a modest increase in low-level warm
advection across a residual baroclinic zone. Closer proximity to the
surface low/trough will likely result in somewhat weaker wind speeds
Tuesday afternoon compared to what was observed yesterday or is
expected today. However, dry conditions will prevail with RH
minimums in the teens and low 20s expected, and winds will likely
increase to near 15 mph by late afternoon amid deep boundary-layer
mixing. This should support another day of elevated fire weather
conditions over a region that has seen several days of dry, windy
weather.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
A plume of monsoonal moisture is expected to persist across the
Great Basin and Four Corners on Tuesday. Continued northward
advection of higher moisture content over the next 48 hours should
yield PWAT values generally on the order of 0.75 to 1.0 inch across
much of the region, which will most likely favor a mix of wet and
dry thunderstorms. Deterministic forecast soundings suggest a narrow
band of dry thunderstorms may materialize across northeast UT into
southern WY and northern CO Tuesday afternoon, but the overall
signal from recent CAM ensembles suggests this potential may be
fairly spatially limited. While dry lightning strikes will remain
possible outside of the heavier precipitation cores, confidence in
the coverage of predominantly dry thunderstorms remains too limited
for additional highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 08/10/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 092221
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
Following the flattening of the upper ridge across the northwestern
CONUS, high pressure over the Four Corners will gradually translate
eastward early next week. Residual dry and breezy conditions will
persist across portions of the Great Basin and Wyoming plains
through Day 3/Tuesday, in addition to the southern Plains as high
pressure centers atop the region midweek. As monsoonal moisture
continues to advect northward, daily chances for thunderstorms are
expected throughout in the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and
Colorado Rockies. Mid to late week, guidance depicts a pattern shift
with a trough forming off the West Coast and a shortwave trough
approaching the Pacific Northwest, indicating thunderstorm potential
as a result of the overall upper pattern.
...Day 3/Tuesday...
...Portions of the Intermountain West...
Stronger upper-level flow will continue across the flattened ridge,
sustaining a pattern of dry and breezy conditions atop exceptionally
dry fuels. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day
3/Tuesday across the northern Great Basin and Wyoming plains to
account for a broader, prolonged fire weather threat. These
conditions could also encourage any lightning-induced holdovers to
emerge, resulting from preceding days of forecast dry thunderstorms.
High pressure residing over the Four Corners region will slowly
drift eastward with the northern fringes of monsoonal moisture
remaining over northern Nevada and Utah. Higher PWATs and slower
storm motions will increase precipitation efficiency, providing some
relief to a stressed fuelscape. However, a lightning ignition within
dry fuels cannot be ruled out on the periphery of much desired
rainfall.
...Day 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday...
...Northeastern Washington, Idaho Panhandle, and northwestern
Montana...
A shortwave trough will impinge upon the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies midweek with an accompanying plume of moisture.
Ensemble guidance depicts greater instability across the region amid
stronger westerly flow aloft, promoting thunderstorm potential.
Given a prolonged dry airmass and a receptive fuelscape, lightning
ignitions are possible where favorable rainfall accumulations are
unlikely. As such, 10% Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been
included where less precipitation efficiency is expected, and
forecast ERCs remain at the 80-95th percentiles.
...Northern California...
Troughing is forecast to form offshore the California Coast early in
the forecast period, settling over the western CONUS mid to late
week as the Four Corners high shifts eastward. Monsoonal moisture
will advect northward, combining with daytime instability to
generate thunderstorm potential. Ensembles indicate more sufficient
instability and higher cloud bases in the northern California higher
terrain/adjacent foothills, enhancing concerns for lightning-induced
ignitions within the receptive fuelscape. As such, 10% Dry
Thunderstorm probabilities were introduced on Day 5/Thursday.
...Southern High Plains...
High pressure will center over the Central U.S. on Day 4/Wednesday,
and will continue to slide eastward through the forecast period.
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will persist across portions of
western Oklahoma, the TX/OK Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas
where fuels are growing increasingly receptive. 40% Critical
probabilities remain on Day 3/Tuesday, and have been introduced on
Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/09/2026
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