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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 060553
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Mid-level split flow consolidates into a broader southwesterly 70-80
knot jet over the Ozarks into the OH River Valley today ahead of an
elongated upper trough stretching from the Upper Midwest to the
Desert Southwest. At the surface, an advancing cold front extends
southwestward from the Northeast into the Southern Plains. A
deepening lee surface trough across eastern NM will promote dry,
downslope westerly winds across portions of the southern NM and west
TX under reinforcing southwesterly flow aloft.
...Southern New Mexico into West Texas...
Southwesterly flow aloft and low-level westerly winds (south of an
evolving lee surface low) will affect much of southern NM and West
TX today. Enhanced downslope drying yielding minimum RH of 10-15%
along with west winds of 15-25 mph are expected during peak boundary
layer mixing today. However, marginal fuels will inhibit overall
wildfire spread potential due to recent rainfall, although pockets
of dry fuels could support localized elevated fire weather concerns
particularly across the Cap Rock area.
..Williams.. 05/06/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 060554
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and associated mid-level speed max will shift
into eastern CONUS Thursday. A cold front and attendant band of
showers and thunderstorms will overspread much of the Southeast and
Piedmont regions. Increasing westerly low-level flow south of the
frontal boundary will bring fire weather concerns to portions of
eastern FL Thursday. A building upper ridge across the western U.S.
will promote warming temperatures and dry conditions for the region.
...Florida Peninsula...
Enhanced westerly surface winds of 10-15 mph are expected across the
FL Peninsula as a cold front approaches the FL/GA border Thursday.
Inland temperatures in the low to mid 90s F will evolve within a
dry, well mixed boundary layer by early Thursday afternoon. The warm
temperatures, increasing westerly flow amid relative humidity in the
25-35% range and drying fuels, will support an elevated fire weather
concern for portions of the eastern FL Peninsula where Elevated
Highlights have been introduced.
..Williams.. 05/06/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 052134
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper troughing will extend along the eastern U.S. and persist
through early next week as an upper-level low over eastern Canada
remains anchored. This pattern will encourage unsettled weather and
repeated chances for precipitation across portions of the Southeast
to the Mid-Atlantic. Broader fire weather concerns may temporarily
be dampened for much of the eastern U.S. through the duration of the
forecast period, given a widespread transition to green up and
expected appreciable precipitation. An upper ridge will prevail
across the western U.S., resulting in above normal temperatures and
dry conditions to continue for much of the Intermountain West
through the forecast period.
On Day 3/Thursday, a cold front will extend from the Carolinas to
Gulf Coast with increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the front. A
deep, dry airmass and 10-15 mph westerly winds atop a drying FL
Peninsula fuelscape will enhance fire weather concerns. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to account for this threat. On
Day 4/Friday, a dry and breezy post frontal environment will
overspread the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. West-northwesterly
winds of 5-15 mph and marginal RH precludes the introduction of
critical probabilities at this time. However, an exceptionally dry
fuelscape (90-95th percentile ERCs) susceptible to increased fire
spread in terrain-favored areas may promote localized fire weather
concerns.
Beneath an upper ridge and northwesterly flow aloft, above normal
temperatures and a dry airmass will remain over much of the western
CONUS. Farther east, periodic breeziness and marginally dry
conditions are expected to continue over the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest through the weekend. Localized fire weather concerns
may emerge where stronger winds overlap dry fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/05/2026
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