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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 271646
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
The forecast remains on track for elevated fire weather conditions
across portions of the northwestern CONUS. Poor to marginal
overnight humidity recoveries and daytime heating will contribute to
critical RH values of 10-15% this afternoon amid southwesterly winds
of 10-15 mph (gusts up to 25 mph). Meteorological conditions will
overlap a very dry, drought-stressed fuelscape (80-95th percentile
ERCs) with multiple ongoing large wildfires. Any lightning holdovers
from thunderstorms last week/weekend may also emerge as a result of
hot, dry, and breezy conditions.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the western CONUS today,
with modest mid-level flow poised to pivot around the ridge during
the afternoon hours, when a deep and dry boundary layer will
encourage downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft.
The most likely location for boundary-layer mixing and associated
stronger surface winds will be across the northern Sierra into the
northern Rockies, where southwesterly surface winds may occasionally
exceed 15 mph amid 20 percent RH and dry fuels. As such, Elevated
highlights have been maintained.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 271907
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
On Day 2/Tuesday, occasionally breezy southwesterly winds of 10-15
mph amid RH values of 15-25% may generate locally elevated fire
weather concerns across the Columbia Basin and portions of the
northern Rockies where fuels remain dry. Please see the previous
discussion for additional information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Another day of mid-level ridging will characterize the upper-air
pattern for the western CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). As in the past
couple of days, upper flow pivoting around the ridge should continue
to weaken in intensity, supporting a weaker surface wind field in
turn. Widespread dry conditions are expected across western portions
of the Great Basin toward the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies. Nonetheless, the lack of a stronger surface wind field
precludes fire weather highlights at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 272138
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing is forecast across portions of the Pacific
Northwest through much of the workweek, with the main upper-level
low remaining offshore. Meanwhile, periodic mid-level shortwaves
will rotate through the base of the trough and over the area within
the southwest flow aloft. The strongest and most well-defined
shortwave is forecast Day 4/Thursday, potentially allowing a
thunderstorm threat to emerge. Thereafter, longer-range ensemble
guidance continues to suggest that the aforementioned upper-level
low may move onshore this weekend, yielding dry and breezy
conditions across the Northwest and Northern Rockies; though timing
details remain uncertain.
...Northwestern US...
Weaker flow aloft will limit a broader fire weather threat across
the Pacific Northwest through much of the week. Though, locally
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely most days due to
lingering dry and breezy conditions amid receptive fuels. Dry
thunderstorm chances may return on Day 4/Thursday as the
aforementioned shortwave trough impinges upon the region amid ample
instability, a dry boundary layer, and sufficient mid-level
moisture, supporting the introduction of 10% probabilities. A
persisting dry airmass and warm daytime temperatures are expected to
increase fuel receptivity, enhancing concerns for new lightning
ignitions. Longer range guidance continues to suggest dry and breezy
conditions should return to the Northwest sometime this weekend as
the offshore trough moves inland. As such, 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced on Days 6-7/Saturday-Sunday where
ensemble RH/wind joint probabilities highlight increased
probabilities to overlap exceptionally dry fuels. The spatial extent
of drawn probabilities may be adjusted in future outlook cycles as
predictability increases.
...Southern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of the
southern High Plains through much of the workweek; however, recent
fuel guidance suggests the fuelscape remains mostly mixed and winds
are forecast to generally remain at or below elevated thresholds.
Nevertheless, fuels are expected to continue drying due to the
multiple days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions, which may
necessitate fire weather highlights in later forecasts.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/27/2026
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