ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160742

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong mid-level jet maximum will progress southward along the
   Rockies/western edge of broad-scale eastern-CONUS troughing
   throughout the day. As a surface low pressure system colocated with
   the trough center moves eastward out of Wisconsin, a strong cold
   front will continue to push eastward and southward across much of
   the Great Plains and into the Midwest. Low relative humidity,
   receptive fuels, and strong post-frontal surface winds will support
   Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of the Texas and
   Oklahoma panhandles, into western Oklahoma.

   ...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma...
   Post-frontal conditions in the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma
   panhandles into western Oklahoma will result in surface wind speeds
   of 20-25 MPH, gusting as high as 35-40 MPH. Relative humidity will
   broadly range from 15-30%, with the higher values corresponding with
   cooler post-frontal temperatures near the border with Kansas. With
   seasonal ERCs largely above the 90th percentile, widespread Elevated
   and a smaller area of Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast
   for this afternoon. A slight westward expansion of the Critical
   highlights is introduced in this forecast to reflect greater
   confidence in the location of the strongest surface winds per recent
   HREF guidance. Though surface temperatures in far southeastern
   Colorado into southwestern Kansas will be cooler (near 40F), surface
   winds will be much stronger, warranting at least Elevated
   highlights.

   ...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas...
   Seasonal ERCs are well above the 90th percentile across the region,
   with sustained surface winds of 40+ MPH (gusting 50-60 MPH)
   expected. However, surface temperatures are expected to remain
   cooler (mid 30s F) given a lack of downslope component to the winds.
   Forecast middle and upper-level cloud cover will further suppress
   surface warming during the afternoon. Though fire-weather concerns
   may develop, several limiting factors should limit the spatial and
   temporal extent of any potential Elevated highlights.

   ..Halbert.. 01/16/2026