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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 171514

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1014 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

   Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

   Minor expansions were made to the Elevated/Critical areas in New
   Mexico and the southern High Plains based on the latest observations
   and high-resolution forecast guidance. Elevated to locally critical
   conditions are already occurring in portions of west Texas and
   central/eastern New Mexico, with several hours of elevated/critical
   conditions expected in the outlook areas. Otherwise, the forecast
   remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more
   details.

   ..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
   an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
   Plains. During the afternoon, surface pressure gradients will
   tighten across much of the High Plains with a cold front progressing
   southwestward into southern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This
   will promote Critical fire weather conditions throughout eastern New
   Mexico, Texas Panhandle, and West Texas. A second shortwave impulse
   will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal temperatures and
   some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the central Appalachians
   and Mid-Atlantic.

   ...Southern Plains...
   As the upper trough moves east of the Rockies, increasing mid level
   flow will overspread much of the southern High Plains. At the
   surface, a strengthening low will quickly traverse the upper
   Midwest, dragging a cold front southward. Poor expected overnight
   humidity recoveries will encourage RH in the single digits by peak
   afternoon heating combined with strong southwest winds of 20-25 mph
   (gusts up 40 mph). These conditions amid receptive fuels will
   support Critical fire weather conditions for much of the region on
   Friday. As the cold front passes through Friday evening, an abrupt
   northerly wind shift with strong gusts of up to 40 mph continuing
   for a few hours could impact any ongoing wildfires. However, higher
   relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front are
   expected to improve the fire weather environment into the overnight
   hours. 

   Farther north, gusty post-frontal northerly winds are expected over
   parts of the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly throughout
   the day as temperatures cool. Brief locally elevated fire weather
   conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry.

   ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
   In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, westerly flow aloft
   will linger over the Appalachians with weak lee surface troughing.
   Westerly winds of 10 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) and decreasing RH to
   less than 30 percent are expected by peak heating. These conditions
   atop a drought ridden landscape and exceptionally dry fuels will
   support an Elevated fire weather threat this afternoon.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 171900

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
   NEBRASKA...

   ...Southern/Central Plains
   A Critical area was added for portions of western/central Nebraska
   as west-northwest sustained winds of 20-25 mph amid minimum RH of
   15-20% are expected. The Critical area may need to be expanded in
   Nebraska if ensemble high-resolution forecast guidance continues to
   trend towards higher probabilities for critical RH. The Elevated
   area was expanded across Nebraska, central Kansas, southern South
   Dakota, eastern Colorado, western Oklahoma, and west Texas amid dry
   and breezy post-frontal conditions, with recent/forecast
   precipitation helping to delineate the expansion of the Elevated
   area.  

   ...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...
   The Elevated area in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic was also
   expanded slightly, with pre-frontal elevated winds/RH appearing more
   likely along/east of the Appalachians in portions of Virginia, West
   Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms are expected
   along/ahead of the approaching cold front in the southern/central
   Appalachians tomorrow late afternoon into tomorrow night. While not
   a conducive or typical dry thunderstorm environment, the expected
   lightning with 50%+ probability of receiving less than 0.25" of
   rainfall on eastern slopes of the Appalachians onto the Piedmont
   Plateau could result in ignitions. Given the following dry and
   breezy post-frontal conditions on Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, there
   is concern for increased spread potential of any existing and new
   ignitions.

   ..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An amplified upper trough will move towards the upper Great Lakes
   and Ohio Valley as temporary upper ridging builds over the West.
   Enhanced southwest winds ahead of an eastward progressing cold front
   will pose an Elevated fire weather threat across parts of the
   Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In the wake of the aforementioned upper
   trough, a post-frontal dry airmass and northerly flow will promote
   Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central
   Plains.

   ...Central Plains...
   Within a post-frontal environment, northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph
   and RH of 15-25 percent over dry fuels will pose an Elevated fire
   weather threat for portions of central NE, eastern CO, and western
   KS on Saturday. However, the areal extent of fire weather highlights
   may change as forecast precipitation (and perhaps some snowfall) on
   Day 1/Friday may provide some relief to fuel conditions. 

   ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
   Increasing southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled
   with the lack of Gulf moisture return and resultant low RH are
   expected to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across much of
   the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At peak heating, widespread RH
   of less than 30 percent will combine with southwesterly winds of
   10-15 mph atop receptive fuels. A prolonged period of above normal
   temperatures and lack of appreciable rainfall continues to
   exacerbate fuel conditions across this region.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172146

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   A large, deep upper level trough will move over the Great Lakes and
   the eastern US Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, with another surface
   cold front pushing through the eastern US. An upper-level trough
   will move into the West early to mid-next week, with upper-level
   troughing likely lingering over the West through next week. Much of
   the southern half of the West, southern/central High Plains, and the
   Southeast will remain dry for the outlook period. 

   ...Plains and Southwest...
   Lee troughing on the southern/central High Plains amid dry return
   flow will result in another round of elevated to critical fire
   weather conditions on Day 3/Sunday. South-southwest sustained winds
   of 15-25 mph amid minimum RH of 8-20% is expected with the highest
   probabilities of critical conditions in the Oklahoma/Texas
   Panhandles, southwest Kansas, into far southeast Colorado and
   northeast New Mexico. 

   Dry/breezy conditions will likely develop again on Day 4/Monday in
   the vicinity of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas amid
   continued surface troughing and dry return flow. Another area of
   concern will be in eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska and South
   Dakota near surface troughing and a cold front. West-northwest winds
   of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25% is forecast across this area,
   with most of the concern ahead of the cold front.

   As the upper-level trough moves into and across the Intermountain
   West, increasing flow aloft and lee troughing on the High Plains
   will lead to elevated/critical fire weather conditions. A broad 40%
   area was introduced on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the
   Southwest and much of the southern/central High Plains based on
   current ensemble forecast guidance. Depending on the timing of the
   upper-level troughing, probabilities may be necessary on Day
   5/Tuesday if the upper-level trough trends quicker, or probabilities
   may be shifted/increased onto Day 7/Thursday if trends with trough
   are slower. Regardless, critical fire weather conditions are likely
   to return to portions of the Southwest and much of the
   southern/central High Plains mid-next week.

   ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
   Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop east of the
   Appalachians on the Piedmont Plateau extending southwest into the
   Florida Panhandle on Day 3/Sunday. The 40% area was expanded, but
   farther expansion may be necessary depending on the anticipated
   rainfall on Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday. North-northwest
   sustained winds of 10-15 mph and minimum RH of 10-30% is forecast
   within and near the 40% area amid a fuelscape characterized by ERCs
   mostly in the 90-99th percentiles. 

   Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will likely persist across
   portions of the Piedmont and Deep South on Day 4/Monday. By Day
   5/Tuesday, western portions of the Florida Peninsula and north
   Florida have the best chances elevated to locally critical
   conditions as 10-20 mph easterly winds overlap RH of 25-40%. Minimum
   RH of 20-35% will continue across portions of the Southeast further
   exacerbating already dry, receptive fuels for which a Fuels and Fire
   Behavior Advisory has been issued.

   ..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026
      




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