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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 211621

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1021 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

   Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   Surface observations at 16Z indicate pockets of elevated fire
   weather conditions developing across southwest portions of the
   Edwards Plateau in Texas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather
   conditions are expected to expand in coverage through this evening
   across portions of South-Central Texas southward into the Big Bend
   region, where sustained surface winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH
   values near 15-20% will overlap receptive fuels. While the latest
   high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest near critical
   fire weather conditions are possible across southwest portions of
   the Edwards Plateau and the South Texas Brush Country, these
   conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a Critical fire
   weather area. 

   Please see the previous discussion below for more information,
   including a discussion on the Elevated fire weather area across
   southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.

   ..Elliott.. 02/21/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are forecast today across
   much of the Southern Great Plains, with at least Elevated
   fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest Texas as well
   as southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. 

   ...South-Central Texas/Big Bend...
   Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are forecast
   this afternoon, with relative humidity as low as 15-20% and winds of
   15-20 MPH. Conditions in the western portion of the outlook area in
   the vicinity of Big Bend will tend to be drier and perhaps a little
   less windy (10-15 MPH), with the eastern portion in south-central
   Texas being more humid and windier (15-20 MPH). A narrow corridor of
   locally Critical conditions may exist within the gradient of these
   conditions, where the drier air and higher wind speeds overlap with
   receptive fuels. However, there was not enough confidence in a large
   enough spatial and temporal overlap of these conditions to warrant
   additional highlights at this time.

   ...Southwestern Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...
   Though surface temperatures will be relatively cooler this far north
   into the post-frontal airmass, daytime heating and mixing is
   forecast to raise surface temperatures into the mid-to-upper 40s F.
   Forecast profiles across the area are well mixed and very dry, with
   surface relative humidity of around 15% and winds of 10-15 MPH.
   Given the critically dry fuels across the area and recent wildfire
   activity, Elevated highlights have been introduced in this outlook.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 211936

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely
   beginning around midday tomorrow (Sunday) and continuing through the
   overnight across portions of southern Georgia and the Florida
   Peninsula, where dry/breezy post-frontal conditions overlap
   receptive fuels. The primary change with this forecast update was to
   expand the Elevated fire weather area further south across much of
   the remainder of the Florida Peninsula. Here, the latest high
   resolution ensemble guidance suggests elevated to locally critical
   fire weather conditions are likely from tomorrow evening into Monday
   morning due to very poor overnight recoveries and lingering
   breeziness. While an upgrade to Critical was considered, confidence
   was a bit too low due to the potential for some light rainfall
   along/ahead of the front early Sunday. 

   While elevated to locally critical fire weather meteorological
   conditions are also likely across much of the remainder of the
   Southeast in a dry and breezy post-frontal environment, wetting
   rainfall today/tomorrow associated with the cold front casts
   considerable uncertainty on fuel receptiveness in the immediate wake
   of the front. Nevertheless, model guidance continues to suggest a
   relative minimum in precipitation across portions of Louisiana and
   the Mississippi Gulf Coast. With limited precipitation, Elevated to
   locally critical fire weather conditions appear likely in these
   areas due to sustained winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH values less
   than 35% overlapping receptive fuels.

   An expansion of the Elevated areas and/or upgrades to Critical may
   be needed across the Southeast once precipitation amounts and
   locations are realized.

   ..Elliott.. 02/21/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   As a cold front moves off the Atlantic/Gulf coasts, dry and breezy
   post-frontal conditions are forecast across much of the Southeast on
   Sunday. Relative humidity could get as low as 25%-30% across
   portions of northern Florida currently experiencing drought, with
   winds reaching 15-20 MPH. These conditions will support Elevated
   concerns for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon
   Sunday.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212048

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

   Valid 231200Z - 011200Z

   An active fire weather pattern is expected across portions of the
   Florida Peninsula and the Southern/Central Plains through much of
   the extended forecast period. For Day 3/Monday, a mid/upper-level
   ridge is forecast over the Southwest with a mid/upper-level trough
   over the Southeast. Thereafter, the Southwest ridge is forecast to
   flatten while broad troughing (and enhanced mid-level flow) develops
   across much of the CONUS. At the surface, portions of Florida will
   remain in a very dry post-frontal regime Day 3/Monday while episodic
   lee surface trough strengthening occurs across the Central Plains
   Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. 

   ...Day 3/Monday: Florida Peninsula and Southern Georgia...
   Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are probable early
   Day 3/Monday morning across portions of the Florida Peninsula due to
   very poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering post-frontal
   breeziness. Although daytime temperatures will be relatively cool
   behind the front, critical conditions appear likely across portions
   of the Florida Peninsula (where 70% probabilities for Critical fire
   weather conditions have been introduced) due to the combination of
   low-to-extremely-low minimum RH values, strong northerly
   post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels owing to ongoing drought
   conditions. 

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains...
   Relatively dry southerly/southwesterly return flow is forecast to
   increase across the southern Plains Day 3/Monday as lee troughing
   strengthens, which should promote Elevated fire weather conditions
   across portions of eastern New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma
   Panhandles, and far western Oklahoma.

   Fire weather conditions are forecast to become more widespread Day
   4/Tuesday across the southern Plains as strong mid-level flow
   remains in place and the lee surface cyclone and associated pressure
   gradient strengthens further while developing southward. While
   critical fire weather conditions are most likely behind the dry line
   across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle where
   strong downslope flow is expected, confidence is currently too low
   to introduce 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions.
   Additionally, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions
   were expanded into portions of Oklahoma based on the latest ensemble
   guidance, where a dry return flow regime is forecast. 

   Confidence is a bit lower Day 4/Tuesday across the Central Plains, 
   with ensemble guidance offering differing solutions for the
   evolution of a developing surface cyclone in the lee of the Laramie
   Range. While critical probabilities were not introduced with this
   outlook, fire weather conditions are possible depending on the
   evolution/strength of the cyclone. 

   Run-to-run model variability has increased somewhat for Day
   5/Wednesday, with impactful differences in the strength and
   positioning of the surface low through the day over the Southern
   Plains. In turn, this decreases confidence in critical fire weather
   highlights across the area. Nevertheless, the 40% probability for
   Critical fire weather conditions was maintained as at least elevated
   fire weather conditions appear likely across much of the area. 

   ...Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday: Southern/Central Plains... 
   Ensemble model spread begins to increase Day 6/Thursday and into the
   next weekend, which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities
   beyond Day 5/Wednesday. Nonetheless, the mid/upper-level pattern
   continues to favor broad troughing across the CONUS, with enhanced
   mid-level flow and multiple short-wave impulses crossing the central
   United States. This flow pattern coupled with ongoing drought
   conditions (and little-to-no forecast rainfall) suggest fire weather
   conditions will likely linger across portions of the plains through
   at least Day 8/Saturday.

   ..Elliott.. 02/21/2026
      




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