ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241946

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   Elevated fire weather highlights were introduced across the
   wind-prone areas of LA/Ventura/Santa Barbara counties in southern
   California for Day 2/Tuesday. The offshore gradient will be
   strongest late evening through the overnight hours (perhaps into Day
   3/Wednesday morning), with winds up to 15-25 mph (locally greater)
   and 15-20% RH values promoting enhanced fire concerns as ERCs
   approach the 90-95th percentile. 

   The rest of the forecast remains on track with only slight
   adjustments made to the prior Isolated Dry Thunderstorm and Elevated
   risk areas; please see the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/24/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive large-scale ridge
   centered on the southern Rockies, a low-amplitude shortwave trough
   will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies.
   Associated large-scale forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel
   moisture/instability will support isolated high-based thunderstorms
   across parts of central/northern ID and southwestern MT during the
   afternoon. Around 0.5-0.75 inch PW and 20-30 mph northeastward storm
   motions will favor dry thunderstorms capable of producing
   lightning-induced ignitions atop receptive fuels. 

   Additionally, enhanced deep-layer south-southwesterly flow
   accompanying the midlevel trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained
   southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across parts of
   the northern Great Basin and vicinity during the afternoon. As a
   result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, given very
   dry fuels (90th-95th percentile ERCs).

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 242141

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0441 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

   Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level ridge extending northward from broad high pressure
   across the Southwest will bring warmer and drier conditions to much
   of the Northwest and Northern Rockies. Dry southwesterly flow aloft
   and the departure of deeper monsoon moisture will maintain fire
   weather concerns in the form of dry and breezy conditions for
   portions of the Great Basin and Columbia Basin midweek, reaching the
   central ID mountains by Day 4/Thursday as fuels dry. The threat of
   dry thunderstorms continues across the Northern Rockies Day
   3/Wednesday with the arrival of an upper-level trough into the
   Pacific Northwest. Diurnal showers/thunderstorms along higher
   terrain will likely shift eastward, mainly along the Rockies by the
   end of the week with another possible upper-level wave entering the
   Pacific Northwest by the weekend, although forecast uncertainty
   increases during this time frame.

   ...Northwest, Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies...
   A drier southwest flow pattern will bring a multi-day fire weather
   threat back into portions of the northwestern U.S., with fire
   weather concerns extending eastward into the central ID mountains
   later this week as fuels rebound from recent monsoon moisture. The
   40% Critical probabilities have been maintained with minor
   adjustments for Days 3-6/Wednesday-Saturday. West to southwest winds
   of 15-20 mph and afternoon relative humidity between 15-20 percent
   will bring daily elevated fire weather concerns, potentially
   impacting nascent wildfires born from thunderstorm activity early in
   the forecast period. Critical fire weather conditions with winds of
   20+ mph are likely but only in localized areas, particularly from
   northeastern CA into far northwestern NV and southeastern OR.
   Enhanced onshore flow develops across the Pacific Northwest as the
   next upper-level trough impacts the region mid-late week. This will
   bolster downslope drying across the Columbia Basin where afternoon
   relative humidity reductions of around 15 percent are possible. This
   dry atmospheric and fuel environment, coupled with west/southwest
   winds of 15-20 mph, should bring a fire weather threat to the
   Columbia Basin on Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday.

   Long term guidance suggests a strong upper low will enter the
   Northwest and contribute to the breakdown of the upper ridge atop
   the Four Corners this weekend. As a result of the upper pattern,
   fire weather concerns may emerge across portions of the Great Basin
   and Northern Rockies. 

   ...Southern California...
   Above average daytime temperatures and poor humidity recoveries are
   forecast across portions of southern California through the
   week/early weekend. Offshore flow will present overnight/early
   morning periods of gusty winds and critically low RH values in the
   Santa Barbara/Ventura/LA counties amid very dry fuels, raising
   concerns for locally elevated fire weather conditions. 

   ...Dry Thunderstorms...
   The arrival of the next upper-level wave will bring additional
   opportunities for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
   northern Rockies on Day 3/Wednesday, transitioning into
   western/central Montana on Day 4/Thursday. The eastward shunting of
   deeper monsoon moisture under a drier southwest flow regime will
   likely contribute to a drying boundary layer, maintaining 10% Dry
   Thunderstorm probabilities on Day 3/Wednesday. Additional
   probabilities have been withheld for Day 4/Thursday as several
   consecutive days of thunderstorms may contribute to increased
   moisture and efficient recoveries; however, trends will be monitored
   for the introduction of probabilities in future outlook cycles.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/24/2026