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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071554
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA...
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. As of late morning,
northeasterly wind gusts of up to 20 mph and decreasing RH to 30
percent are already being measured within the Critical risk area.
Across portions of the western Florida Panhandle, recent high
resolution guidance is portraying less than 35 percent RH and
sustained northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph this afternoon. However,
higher accumulations of precipitation within the last 48 hours may
mitigate a broader fire weather threat, precluding a westward
expansion of Elevated highlights. Nevertheless, areas that did not
receive appreciable rainfall may encounter locally elevated fire
weather concerns in pockets where drier fine fuels may exist. See
the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue to dampen across the West today as
a mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest moves
eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave
trough ejects eastward over southwestern Texas. This will promote
largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern Rockies. At
the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South Florida, with
high pressure in place across the Midwest. A second frontal system
will simultaneously shift eastward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle...
Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-20 mph along the southern
periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region
are forecast to overlap minimum RH values of 20-30% during peak
mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across a
region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought, this is
expected to promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions
from eastern Georgia into the central Florida Panhandle, especially
across areas that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulations
over the past 24-48 hours.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 071950
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA...
A Critical risk area was added over southwest South Carolina and
into south-central and eastern Georgia. A corridor of strong
northeast winds up to 15-20 mph combined with afternoon RHs below
25% will impact the highlighted area. While less likely, it's worth
noting that some forecast model guidance is suggesting very dry
afternoon RHs below 20% across portions of east-central Georgia. The
Elevated area was also expanded across northern North Carolina where
northeast winds of 10-15 mph will combine with afternoon RHs under
30-35%. With few exceptions over the expanded area of the Elevated
risk, recent rainfall has overall been relatively minimal.
As was previously mentioned for the central/southern High Plains,
locally elevated conditions will be possible across portions of this
region where enhanced by downslope flow conditions. This is
especially true in southern South Dakota, southern Wyoming, and
eastern Colorado. However, the combination of wind, RH, and fuels is
expected to remain just below elevated thresholds through much of
the afternoon.
..Stearns.. 04/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist across the Southwest on
D2/Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses eastward along the
Canadian border. A closed upper-level low will simultaneously
approach the California coastline. At the surface, a cold front will
progress slowly southward across the central Great Plains while a
surface high shifts offshore of the Mid-Atlantic.
...Portions of southwestern South Carolina into western Georgia...
Surface high pressure to the north will continue to favor
northeasterly flow across much of the Southeast. Sustained surface
winds of 10-15 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 25-35%
during peak mixing Wednesday afternoon. With dry, receptive fuels in
place across the area, this is expected to promote elevated fire
weather concerns from southwestern South Carolina into portions of
western Georgia. Latest high-res guidance indicates some potential
for locally critical conditions across portions of eastern Georgia;
however, Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding coverage and duration of sustained surface
winds of 15+ mph. Trends will continue to be monitored for future
issuances.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Northwesterly flow across the central/southern Rockies will favor
lee troughing across portions of the central/southern High Plains.
This is expected to support a weak downslope wind regime for
D2/Wednesday. While minimum RH values are forecast in the 10-15%
range, latest guidance indicates sustained surface winds will remain
less than 15 mph across much of the region. Thus, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.
Locally elevated conditions will be possible in gap flow and other
favorable areas for terrain enhanced winds, however.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 062041
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
An upper-level trough will be progressing eastward along the
Canadian border with the base of the jet over the northern Plains on
Day 3/Wednesday. A cutoff upper-level low approaches the California
coast simultaneously on Day 3/Wednesday. However, it's not until Day
5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday that the center of the low finally
moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the
northern Pacific. By Day 7/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts
off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great
Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to
result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western
and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats.
Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but
difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern.
...Southeast (Day 3/Wednesday)...
With surface high pressure still to the north over the eastern Great
Lakes, continued offshore flow will likely contribute to at least
elevated fire weather conditions across eastern Georgia and southern
South Carolina. This regime will result in northeast 10-15 mph winds
combined with RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating period.
...Southern Plains (Day 3/Wednesday and Day 7/Sunday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds up to 15 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Much of
this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system ejects eastward across the
central portions of the CONUS next weekend. However, the latest
forecast guidance indicates that some locations may struggle to
accumulate much rainfall. If this trend holds true, future areas of
critical probabilities may be needed as the forecast becomes more
clear.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday)...
The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under the
southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday
across areas of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. However,
recent cooler weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably
receptive fuels will preclude any probabilities at this time. While
this event could promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions
across this region, additional precipitation also appears likely
with the aforementioned low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/06/2026
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