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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 031600
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Day 1 update...
No changes, see the previous discussion for more info.
..Lyons.. 02/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper level pattern today will feature a trough in the East and
a ridge in the West. At the surface, high pressure will be
reinforced within the West and the Plains/Upper Midwest.
...Central High Plains...
With a secondary cold front moving through the region, temperatures
should be slightly cooler than on Monday. Dry and breezy northerly
are again expected into late afternoon. The strongest winds (15-20
mph) will occur within the cooler air in northeast Colorado. Farther
south, 10-15 mph winds will occur within drier air (15-20% RH).
Given limited fuel receptiveness and marginally elevated conditions,
fire weather risk will likely be localized.
...Southern California...
With high pressure building into the Great Basin, offshore winds
will increase into Wednesday morning. Gusty, dry winds will occur
within the wind prone terrain areas. Current fuel information
suggests fire weather concerns will be limited.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 031925
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Afternoon Update Southern CA...
Offshore winds are expected to increase over parts of the Desert
Southwest and southern CA late Day 1 Tuesday and continue through
Day 2 Wednesday. Easterly pressure gradients of 5-7 mb will support
gusts of 30-40 mph at ridge top level and through local terrain
gaps. With poor overnight humidity recoveries below 30% expected,
some localized fire-weather concerns are possible. However, fuel
moisture remains high enough to limit a greater fire weather concern
despite some alignment of dry/windy conditions.
...Southern Plains and far south TX...
A few hours of gusty winds are expected with the frontal intrusion
across far south TX Wednesday and Wednesday night. With afternoon RH
below 30% and winds occasionally gusting to 15-20 mph, some
localized fire-weather concerns are possible within drier short hour
fuels. However, more widespread dry fuels are lacking, and the
arrival of a cooler air mass suggest the overall threat remains low.
See the previous discussion for additional information.
..Lyons.. 02/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
The eastern trough/western ridge upper-level pattern on Wednesday
will become more amplified. At the surface, high pressure is
expected to become more entrenched over much of the CONUS.
...Southern High Plains...
Behind the cold front, northerly winds will spread across West Texas
into parts of central Texas. Winds of 15-20 mph will be possible,
though the strongest winds will occur where temperatures are cooler
and RH is higher. Fuels are not overly receptive, but some localized
concerns are possible.
...Florida...
With a surface low evolving within the southern
Appalachians/Piedmont, southwesterly winds will modestly increase
across the Florida Peninsula. With a dry airmass in place, RH could
fall below 30% as temperatures rise into the 60s F. Winds may still
struggle to reach 10 mph. Only locally elevated fire weather is
expected.
...Southern California...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected to last into the afternoon.
The strongest winds will occur during the early morning. RH of
10-20% appears possible along with winds of 15-25 mph. Even with
these conditions, fuel moisture remains high enough to limit a
greater fire weather concern.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 032156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
The mid-level flow pattern over the US is forecast to transition
from highly amplified to predominantly zonal over the next several
days. Eastern US troughing will persist through the remainder of
this week and into the weekend. Thereafter weakening western ridging
will shift eastward allowing stronger westerly flow and weak
toughing to develop over the western US. As the pattern transitions,
cool and dry conditions over the eastern half of the US should warm
as high pressure develops across the east. Fire-weather concerns are
possible over parts of FL and the Southeast initially with dry and
breezy post-frontal conditions. However, fire-weather concerns are
more uncertain into next week.
...Southeast and FL...
Dry and breezy offshore winds are expected over parts of FL and the
Southeast late this week and into the weekend. Upper troughing will
deepen before moving offshore allowing a strong cold front to move
south D3/Thursday. Behind this front, dry continental air and cooler
temperatures may allow for occasional overlap of RH below 40% and
winds of 10-15 mph. However area fuels remain only modestly
receptive and fire-weather concerns are likely to remain localized
through D5/Saturday.
...Southwest and Southern Plains...
As the flow pattern transitions to more zonal flow later next week,
the rerun of west/westerly flow aloft will support some lee
cyclogenesis and strong surface winds over the Southwest and Plains.
This could support some increase in fire-weather potential given
recent dryness. However, precipitation and generally limited fuels
cast significant uncertainty through the remainder of the extended
forecast period.
..Lyons.. 02/03/2026
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