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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 061538
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...
The eastern extent of the Elevated/Critical areas were expanded
slightly across western Oklahoma and west/central Texas. This was to
accommodate an eastward shift of the dryline shown with the latest
forecast guidance, which has a good handle on its current placement
and orientation as of this morning. Small portions of the eastern
Critical area were also excluded to account for recent isolated
rainfall over portions of the Texas Panhandle. The latest model
guidance is, so far, in agreement with the position of the
previously mentioned cold front constraining the northern periphery
of the Elevated/Critical areas today.
Satellite imagery and surface observations did show areas of stratus
and fog in the vicinity of the expanded area. However, as of
daybreak, those conditions were already beginning to retreat
eastward. Additionally, clear skies, low surface RHs near 15-25%,
and southwesterly winds gusting in excess of 25 mph are being
observed over portions of southeast New Mexico. Thus, conditions
within western portions of the Critical area are already beginning
to take shape.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will develop over the CONUS through today as an
upper-level shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners ejects
northeastward across the central Great Plains while a cutoff low
develops over Arizona. At the surface, a strong lee surface cyclone
will develop southeastward from Colorado into northwestern Oklahoma
before transitioning quickly northeastward across the central Great
Plains. Strong southwesterly surface winds and very low RH values
behind a trailing dryline will support elevated to critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. A
strong cold front will then progress southward late in the period.
...Eastern New Mexico into portions of West Texas and the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen as a shortwave trough
ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains today. Aided by
a strong surface pressure gradient to the southwest of the surface
low, this mid-level flow will contribute to sustained southwesterly
surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping very low RH values of 10-15%
behind an eastward progressing dryline. With receptive fuels across
the region, these conditions will yield critical fire weather
conditions across much of eastern New Mexico and West Texas
northward through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into
southwestern Kansas. The lone exception is across portions of the
eastern Texas Panhandle where two areas of recent heavier rainfall
are expected to locally reduce fire weather concerns. Within the
Critical highlights, a 40+ kt 700 mb jet overlapping steep low-level
lapse rates will favor a corridor of locally stronger winds
(sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph with sporadic gusts to 35-45
mph possible) from east-central New Mexico northeastward into the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Elsewhere across the southern High Plains, westerly to southwesterly
sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH values of
10-20%, supporting elevated fire weather conditions from the Texas
Big Bend northward to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas.
A cold front will then move southward late in the period, bringing a
wind shift to north/northeasterly winds, which may allow for an
additional 2-3 hours of elevated fire weather conditions before
cooler temperatures and increased RH filter in.
Some uncertainty remains regarding the northern and eastern extents
of elevated/critical conditions due to the timing of the cold front
as well as the movement of the dryline, respectively. This will
continue to be monitored closely for any additional adjustments.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 060818
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level flow will split on D2/Saturday, with a mid-level
shortwave trough ejecting northeastward across the central Great
Plains and Great Lakes regions while a closed upper-low retrogrades
southwestward across portions of the Southwest, eventually settling
off the coast of northern Baja California. At the surface,
moderately strong high pressure will build into the Great Basin,
with a low pressure center settling over Baja California. Meanwhile,
a second surface low will progress northeastward from the northern
Great Lakes across southeastern Canada, with an attendant cold front
moving southeastward across the eastern CONUS. Widespread
precipitation and cooler temperatures accompanying this front are
expected to limit fire weather concerns at this time.
...Portions of Southern California...
Aided by strong northeasterly mid-level flow aloft, the placement of
the aforementioned surface features across the West will contribute
to strong and gusty offshore/northeast flow over portions of
Southern California. Sustained northeasterly surface winds of 20-25
mph (with gusts as high as 35-45 mph in favored coastal/terrain
areas) are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 15-20%; however,
unreceptive fuels are expected to preclude widespread fire weather
concerns at this time.
..Chalmers/Moore.. 03/06/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 052144
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Upper-level flow will split on Day 3/Saturday and a cutoff upper low
will retrograde through Arizona and settle over Baja California by
Day 4/Sunday. This low begins to move eastward across the southwest
US and Mexico on Day 5/Monday and progresses through Texas on Day
7/Wednesday.
On Day 3/Saturday, the placement of the upper low near southern
California will contribute to strong and gusty offshore/northeast
flow over the area. However, elevated live fuel moisture will
inhibit the need for consideration of probabilities over this area.
As a shortwave trough moves across the northern High Plains during
this same time frame, marginally elevated fire weather conditions
are expected to be negated by recent cold temperatures and
precipitation.
On Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday, as the aforementioned cutoff low
begins to move eastward, surface winds will increase to near
Elevated thresholds over northeast New Mexico and western portions
of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Eastern portions of the
Southwest and western portions of the southern Plains will remain
under dry, but at times cooler, conditions through the outlook
period.
Early next week, there are some differences in forecast guidance
regarding the timing and speed of the cutoff low, but the overall
track remains similar. Given the recent precipitation and the
overall pattern, no areas of critical fire weather are currently
anticipated through the remainder of the extended period.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/05/2026
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