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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 011628
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Mostly clear skies across
the FL Peninsula this morning will promote sufficient boundary layer
mixing into a drier airmass aloft. However, mid/high cloud cover is
expected to expand over the region as a digging northern stream
trough increases moisture aloft later this afternoon. Inland RH
values are expected to drop to 30-35 percent at peak heating while
westerly winds hover around 10 mph (gusts up to 15 mph) atop drought
stressed fuels, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing, with multiple embedded perturbations
should gradually deepen over the eastern US today as ridging builds
across the Great Basin. West of the ridge, a closed low will develop
offshore and slowly move inland over the Pacific Northwest. Strong
westerly flow is expected over much of the Gulf Coast and eastern US
as a frontal boundary slowly sags southward. Widespread
precipitation is forecast along and north of the front which should
greatly limit fire-weather potential outside of FL.
...FL...
South of the slow-moving front across the Gulf Coast and northern
FL, enhanced westerly flow is expected over the central and eastern
Peninsula this afternoon. While not overly strong (10-15 mph gusts),
the breezy conditions should develop beneath clear skies, a
relatively dry air mass with RH values of 30-35% and surface
temperatures near 90F. Widespread receptive fuels (ERCs in the
90-97th percentiles) will support elevated fire weather conditions.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 011931
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Recent guidance has trended towards a more accelerated cold frontal
progression across the northern Plains on Saturday afternoon,
resulting in minor adjustments to the Elevated risk area. While the
cold front will be dry, increasing cloud cover along and behind the
front will allow RH to remain somewhat marginal between 25-35
percent in southeastern MT and south-central ND. In far northeastern
WY and northwestern SD, a much drier airmass will exist for a few
hours ahead of the front, with RH between 10-20 percent before
rising as the front passes. However, the driest air and stronger
winds do not overlap, precluding the introduction of critical
highlights at this time. Very strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph
(gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours following the
frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions.
In FL, Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly to account
for a broader region of sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph
and RH of less than 35 percent. An eastward progressing shortwave
will phase with an amplifying upper trough over the Eastern
Seaboard, cultivating an elongated surface low to develop east of
the Carolinas coastline. A strong 30-50 kt 700-850 mb jet is
expected to develop over central FL in the wake of the departing
low, yet expansive high cloud cover and increasing mid/low clouds
along the incoming front may prevent deeper mixing. However, in
sporadic areas that experience partly cloudy skies, wind gusts of up
to 30 mph across central FL could mix down to the surface,
exacerbating any new/existing fires. Wetting rainfall behind the
frontal passage should provide relief to the fire environment into
the overnight hours.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US
Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft also strengthens. This will
drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry
conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west of
the upper trough, northwesterly flow will persist over the Plains
ahead of a ridge over the Great Basin. A dry cold front will move
southward across the northern Plains supporting dry and breezy
conditions into parts of the Dakotas/MT.
...FL...
Another day of dry and breezy conditions is expected for portions of
central and southern FL. Surface winds should be somewhat stronger
than Friday as the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and flow
aloft increases. Surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible amid RH
below 35%. Area fuels remain quite dry with little recent rainfall
and ERC values above the 95th percentile. Fire-weather concerns
should end with the frontal passage and some light rainfall possible
into the evening and overnight.
...Northern Plains...
On the backside of the broader eastern US trough, a subtle shortwave
will support a weak surface cyclone along a cold front moving out
southern Canada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected
with the front. With little surface moisture in place, afternoon RH
values below 20% are likely. Combined with dry fuels, the dry/breezy
conditions will likely support a few hours of elevated fire weather
concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern
MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 302119
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening
surface low near the Carolina Coast will lead to dry and breezy
conditions south of a cold front, increasing the fire weather threat
across FL on Day 3/Saturday. The cold front and associated rainfall
will finally advance southeastward over the weekend, providing a
temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to much of
the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front
sweeping southeastward under broader northeasterly flow should bring
stronger west-northwest winds and low RH to portions of the northern
Plains on Day 3/Saturday. Dry and breezy conditions return to the
Southwest Day 4/Sunday and Southern High Plains Day
5-6/Monday-Tuesday as upper low gradually shifts into the region.
...Day 3/Saturday...
...Florida...
Stronger west winds of 15 mph (locally 20 mph) ahead of a cold front
advancing southeastward from the northern Gulf Coast will bring a
fire weather threat to the FL Peninsula on Day 3/Saturday. RH
reductions could be limited to 35% locally due to increasing cloud
cover but fuels remain very receptive amid expanding drought where
40% critical probabilities remain.
...Northern Plains...
A mid-level short wave will translate southeastward into the
Northern Plains from the southern Canadian Prairies on Day
3/Saturday. At the surface, a cold front extending southwestward
from a parent low across ND will sweep into the eastern MT and
Dakotas. Dry and breezy conditions ahead of the cold front combined
with dry fuels could allow for heightened fire weather concerns
across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern MT, where
recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced to account for this fire weather
threat.
...Days 4-6/Sunday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the
southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy
conditions across the Southwest on Sunday, with downslope drying and
enhanced winds evolving in the Southern High Plains Monday and
Tuesday. However, preceding widespread rainfall in the tonight and
Day 2/Friday time frame in addition to ongoing green up across the
region should limit the impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather
concern.
..Williams.. 04/30/2026
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