ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130651

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
   PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will move southward across the Pacific Northwest
   into the Northern Rockies on D2/Saturday. As westerly flow develops
   across the Rockies, strong lee cyclone development is likely on
   D2/Saturday across the Nebraska Panhandle. As a result, westerly
   surface gradients will strengthen across the central/southern High
   Plains. Very strong/dry downslope flow is expected to develop,
   particularly across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. In
   this region, sustained westerly surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap
   relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. This in combination
   with dry fuels will support maintaining Critical fire areas for
   Saturday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected to
   extend into eastern Colorado and far southeastern Wyoming/western
   Nebraska. The immediate area in the lee of the higher terrain in
   eastern Colorado may see locally Critical conditions. This area may
   need to be included in further outlooks if trends increase or
   confidence in mountain wave activity increases. Elevated to locally
   critical fire weather conditions are likely to persist overnight on
   portions of the southern and central High Plains. 

   Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will extend into
   portions of western New Mexico and Arizona. For now, fuels in this
   region are not supportive but this event will work to precondition
   fuels amid temperatures well above normal.

   ..Thornton.. 03/13/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122210

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0510 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   Progressive zonal flow continues across the central CONUS this
   weekend transitioning into a more high-amplitude pattern early next
   week and persisting through the forecast period. On Day 4/Sunday, an
   upper level trough will dig aggressively southward into the central
   and southern Rocky Mountains. This trough tracks through the
   southern Appalachians by the end of Day 5/Monday before moving
   toward the northeast CONUS on Day 6/Tuesday. Recent forecast
   guidance continues to exhibit a notable southern trend and slower
   eastward progression with this trough's evolution, introducing some
   uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the peak wind as it shifts
   eastward. Simultaneously, a robust upper-level ridge will amplify
   over the western CONUS. By mid-to-late week, this ridge is forecast
   to center over Arizona, with near-record heights over much of the
   Southwest.

   On Day 3/Saturday, the latest guidance continues to favor robust
   surface winds over the southern and central Rockies, extending into
   the adjacent High Plains. This area will continue to be watched
   closely for a potential mountain wave that would enhance lee side
   winds. The limiting factor keeping the outlook area from being drawn
   farther west is the higher fuel moisture in place across extreme
   western New Mexico into Arizona and Utah where wind and RHs are
   expected to meet criteria. However, this event will serve to
   pre-condition fuels in these areas as surface temperatures remain
   nearly 20 degrees above normal throughout much of the central and
   southern High Plains. Additionally, elevated to locally critical
   fire weather conditions are likely to persist overnight on portions
   of the southern and central High Plains. 

   On Day 4/Sunday, as the trough axis shifts, vigorous northwest flow
   on the backside of the system will maintain a corridor of strong
   winds and persistent dry air across SE New Mexico and West Texas.
   Both of the 40% and 70% probabilities areas were expanded to account
   for the stronger upper-level jet max overhead and the tightening
   surface pressure gradient ahead of the advancing cold front.
   Conversely, the central and northern Plains will see a transition to
   much more stable, post-frontal conditions with significantly cooler
   temperatures, keeping these regions below critical thresholds.

   On Day 5/Monday, expect breezy and dry conditions to persist across
   eastern New Mexico under northerly flow. While the airmass remains
   dry, surface temperatures will be cooler and surface wind speeds
   appear more localized and marginal. While locally elevated
   conditions will be possible, the lack of a widespread, tightened
   surface pressure gradient suggests a lower probability of a critical
   area at this lead time. An area of 40% probability was added over
   extreme south Texas where northerly winds will combine with dry air
   behind the front.

   On Day 6/Tuesday, warmer temperatures return to the High Plains with
   north to northwest upper level flow above much of the central CONUS.
   With warmer surface temperatures and resultant higher surface
   mixing, more widespread critical conditions will be possible over
   portions of the southern Plains. Additionally, the post-frontal
   environment over Georgia and Florida, where fuels are driest, will
   provide opportunity for locally elevated conditions.

   Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue to
   cure fuels over the course of several consecutive days across the
   southern half of the western CONUS through the outlook period.
   Regardless of winds, temperatures and RHs would suggest extended
   burn periods across these areas given receptive fuels.

   ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/12/2026