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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071555
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
No changes were made to the existing Elevated wind/relative humidity
area this morning. The previously described Santa Ana Winds over
southern CA remain on track with the latest forecast guidance.
Off-shore winds sustained up to 15-20 mph will combine with relative
humidity below 20% across the drawn area. While locally critical
weather conditions remain possible, the brief extent in time and
space, as well as live fuel loading from accumulated precipitation
late last month will preclude the need for a higher fire weather
risk.
..Stearns.. 11/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast today over a narrow
section of Southern California. Portions of the San Gabriel, Santa
Monica, and Santa Susana mountains, along with the San Gabriel
Valley, will experience weak to moderate Santa Ana winds from late
this morning into the afternoon. Sustained northeasterly off-shore
winds of around 20 MPH (gusting to 30-40 MPH) are expected with
relative humidity of 15-20%. Forecast fuels guidance has ERCs at the
90th seasonal percentile for the region, driven primarily by
critically-low 10-hour and 100-hour dead fuel moisture. Locally
Critical conditions may occur where favored by terrain, but
currently appear to be too localized to warrant additional
highlights at this time.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 071853
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the existing forecast. As previously
mentioned, fuels remain unreceptive across much of the CONUS due to
recent precipitation. However, portions of the southern and central
Appalachian Mountains continue to trend drier than normal. A
tightened surface pressure gradient associated with a cold front
progressing southeast across the Great Lakes region will support
strong southwest winds (sustained up to 15-20 mph) from Ohio through
western New York on Day 2/Sunday afternoon. Conversely, relative
humidity (minimums near 40%) will remain well above necessary
thresholds. Even so, fire risk will be non-zero across this area
tomorrow afternoon, but will remain below elevated thresholds.
..Stearns.. 11/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
A minimal fire-weather threat is forecast for Sunday owing to a lack
of receptive fuels and relatively calm meteorological conditions.
Conditions across the CONUS are predominantly characterized by high
pressure, cooler temperatures, and generally weak surface winds.
Recent rainfall over the last week will also serve to generally
limit fuel receptiveness.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 072103
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
A broad, but low amplitude, upper-level ridge will sit over much of
the CONUS starting on Day 3/Monday with a trough in place over the
Northeast and remnants of a weakening cutoff low over the southern
High Plains. On Day 4/Tuesday through Day 5/Wednesday, the ridge
will continue to amplify over the Intermountain West, leading to
widespread well-above-normal (+15 to +20 degrees) surface
temperatures over the northwestern quadrant of the CONUS. A
significant trough from the Gulf of Alaska will move toward the
Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Sunday, leading to the breakdown of the
upper-level ridge over the West. While much of the Intermountain
West has benefited from cool and wet conditions recently, portions
of WY remain relatively dry. Thus, fuel moisture trends will be
closely monitored as breezy to strong west-southwesterly winds
combined with low relative humidity are expected over this region on
Day 7/Friday and Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, offshore (northwesterly)
flow on the downwind side of the ridge over portions of the
Southeast will become another focus. Portions of GA through the
Carolinas will not have received any precipitation in over a week
amid drier-than-normal antecedent conditions, further increasing
receptiveness of dead fuels there.
..Stearns.. 11/07/2026
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