U.S. Alerts
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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 131623

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1023 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

   Valid 131700Z - 141200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   Today's fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the
   previous discussion below for more information - including the
   potential for brief/spotty elevated fire weather conditions across
   the central/southern High Plains.

   ..Elliott.. 12/13/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper trough in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will amplify
   today as it moves toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. This will help
   drive colder air into the Plains. Ahead of the colder air, a modest
   surface low will develop and evolve southward within the central and
   southern High Plains. There will be brief potential for dry/breezy
   conditions that may approach elevated criteria locally. Given the
   short duration of these conditions and the generally unreceptive
   fuels, no highlights are warranted.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 131855

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   Tomorrow's (Sunday) fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please
   see the previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Elliott.. 12/13/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on
   Sunday into Monday morning. The upper ridge in the West will expand
   into the Plains. A surface high pressure system will move
   southeastward and a cold front will move through much of the Gulf.
   Locally dry and windy conditions are possible in eastern Wyoming.
   Poor fuel receptiveness will preclude much in the way of fire
   weather concerns. Though temperatures will be cool/cold in the
   Southeast, gusty northerly winds and modest RH reductions will be
   possible. Recent precipitation in the past week has left fuel
   receptiveness marginal at best. This, along with the marginal
   temperatures, should preclude fire weather concerns.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132121

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0321 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to weaken Day 3/Monday over the
   Southwest with a shift toward a zonal flow pattern across much of
   the CONUS Day 4/Tuesday through the end of next week. This
   upper-level regime will support relatively cool conditions with
   periodic precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest into the
   northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Meanwhile, dry conditions
   are expected across much of the southern Plains and the Southwest
   with little-to-no precipitation and above normal surface
   temperatures.

   ...Central/Southern Plains...
   A gradual increase in fire weather conditions is expected this week
   across portions of the central/southern Plains as persistent dry and
   relatively warm conditions remain in place. While fuels are only
   marginally receptive at this time across these areas, an increase in
   fuel readiness is expected through this week amidst the dry/warm
   conditions. 

   Periodic lee cyclone strengthening this week should foster at least
   locally Elevated fire weather conditions most days amidst dry/breezy
   winds. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest the greatest potential
   for widespread Elevated (and potentially Critical) conditions is Day
   5/Wednesday and/or Day 6/Thursday as a strong lee cyclone develops
   over the northern Plains. While fire weather highlights may be
   needed in a future outlook, at this time the probability for
   Critical conditions at any location remains less than 40% due to
   lingering run-to-run model variability.

   ..Elliott.. 12/13/2025
      




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