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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 031600

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1000 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

   Valid 031700Z - 041200Z

   A surface front is oriented generally southeast to northwest from
   western Oklahoma through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to along/near
   the Front Range. No changes were made to the outlook, but there is
   some uncertainty regarding elevated conditions developing in
   north-northeastern portions of the Elevated area due to the frontal
   position and expected southwest movement of it later today and
   tonight. Additionally, locally elevated conditions may extend
   through east/southeast portions of the Texas Panhandle. Please see
   the previous discussion for more details.

   ..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/03/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level shortwave trough currently analyzed over the Great Basin
   and Four Corners will eject eastward across the High Plains today.
   At the surface, a deepening lee low will develop south/southeastward
   from eastern Colorado into west Texas while high pressure builds
   across the West. A southward trailing dryline coupled with stronger
   flow aloft will enhance surface winds across portions of the
   southern High Plains ahead of a southward moving cold front. When
   coupled with dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to
   locally critical fire weather conditions are expected over the
   southern High Plains this afternoon.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate
   height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a
   trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern Colorado and New Mexico.
   The developing lee surface cyclone will gradually sag
   south/southeastward into west Texas into this afternoon.
   Simultaneously, building high pressure across the West will couple
   with the deepening low to enhance the surface pressure gradient
   across the eastern New Mexico. Aided by modest mid-level winds, this
   gradient is forecast to support sustained westerly winds of 15-20
   mph during the afternoon, with downsloping and warm temperatures
   yielding low humidity below 20%. When overlapped with areas of
   abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of
   elevated fire-weather conditions are probable this afternoon.

   Some locally stronger winds (sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 25-30
   mph) may develop with RH falling below 15% across portions of
   eastern New Mexico for a few hours this afternoon. However, the
   duration of sustained stronger winds is expected to be short as the
   upper jet will gradually weaken as the mid-level trough ejects
   farther to the east. Nevertheless, a few hours of near critical
   conditions are possible across eastern New Mexico, with the greatest
   potential expected to be along the northern edge of the Llano
   Estacado and within the Canadian River Valley, where terrain may
   favor local wind enhancements. A southward moving cold front will
   bring an end to fire weather concerns through the overnight hours,
   with increasing RH and an abrupt shift to northeasterly winds
   accompanying the frontal passage.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 031840

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
   discussion for more details.

   ..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/03/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the
   central Great Plains through D2/Wednesday as a more amplified
   upper-level trough digs southeastward into the West. At the surface,
   a weak cyclone will transition northeastward across the Midwest
   along a nearly stationary boundary forecast to extend from far west
   Texas northeastward into the Midwest and then eastward across the
   Mid-Atlantic. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and modestly
   increased RH within the post-frontal air mass are expected to temper
   any fire weather concerns across much of the central and southern
   High Plains. While a corridor of stronger sustained surface winds
   (15-20 mph) is forecast ahead of the surface low from southern Texas
   into the mid-Mississippi River Valley, richer low-level moisture
   will maintain surface RH above 40-50% across region. 

   Meanwhile, a second surface cyclone will shift southeastward from
   Alberta into southeastern Montana and may bring a brief period of
   localized downslope winds to portions of the northern High Plains;
   however, sustained winds are forecast to remain light (less than 15
   mph) across any areas that do see decreased RH values of 20% or
   less. Given the expected poor overlap of low RH and stronger
   sustained winds, widespread fire weather concerns are not
   anticipated at this time.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032141

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

   Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

   An upper-level trough will track southeast and deepen over the
   Intermountain West Day 3/Thursday with an associated surface cyclone
   developing on the central High Plains. The flow aloft is likely to
   split with an upper-level trough tracking northeast across the
   central Plains into the Great Lakes Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday
   and another upper low likely retrograding southwest over Baja
   California by Day 5/Saturday. Forecast uncertainty increases late in
   the period regarding the large-scale pattern, especially the
   evolution of the cutoff low over northwest Mexico/southwest US. 

   ...Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday: southern/central High Plains...
   Southwest flow will increase on Day 3/Thursday behind a sharpening
   dryline on the southern/central High Plains. Southwest sustained
   surface winds of 15-30 mph gusting 25-50 mph amid minimum RH of
   5-20% are expected across much of New Mexico, southeast Colorado,
   far west Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwest Kansas.
   Probabilities of critical conditions are highest across eastern New
   Mexico into southeast Colorado. The eastern extent of
   elevated/critical fire weather conditions will depend on the dryline
   location, while the western extent will be limited due to less
   receptive fuels. Forecast precipitation on Day 1/Tuesday night is
   expected to limit elevated/critical fire weather conditions
   along/east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristos for Day
   3/Thursday, but this will be monitored in subsequent outlooks. High
   clouds are also likely to overspread portions of the 40/70% risk
   areas, which may help mitigate fire weather conditions. 

   The dryline will be a focus for Day 3/Thursday late afternoon and
   evening thunderstorm development, with the potential for a narrow
   corridor of dry thunderstorms from the Caprock into the
   Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. However, the
   potential for upscale convective growth, a high PWAT/dewpoint
   airmass adjacent to the dryline, and dryline placement/movement are
   all sources of forecast uncertainty regarding an isolated dry
   thunderstorm risk area.

   On Day 4/Friday, the dryline will mix farther east with an
   approaching cold front pushing southeast across the central Plains.
   Between the dryline and cold front, another round of elevated to
   critical fire weather conditions are expected, but the probability
   of critical conditions are closer to 50%, thus precluding a 70% area
   at this time. The northern/eastern portions of the 40% area are the
   most uncertain due the previous day/night's (i.e., Day 3/Thursday)
   rainfall, how far east the dryline will move, and the progression of
   the approaching cold front.

   ..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/03/2026
      




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