ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180551

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge will build over the Northwest in the wake of a
   departing midlevel trough. While a continuation of warm and dry
   conditions are expected, weaker surface winds will limit
   fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. However,
   locally elevated conditions are still possible in wind-prone areas,
   given the continuation of warm/dry conditions and receptive fuels.

   ..Weinman.. 07/18/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172142

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0442 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   ...Discussion...
   A broad mid-level ridge will dominate over much of Intermountain
   West through next week as troughing across the northeastern U.S.
   amplifies midweek. Monsoon moisture trapped within weak flow under
   the ridge and afternoon instability will support daily afternoon
   showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain across the Colorado
   River Basin and eastern Great Basin. This higher RH environment and
   slow moving, terrain anchored convection will mitigate ignition
   potential. Mainly dry conditions will persist across the interior
   portions of the Pacific Northwest and CA through Day 4/Monday. Short
   wave impulses on the western periphery of the upper ridge could
   bring thunderstorms back into CA as early as Monday. Longer term
   model guidance suggests better chances of dry thunderstorm impacts
   for the Pacific Northwest emerging for the latter part of next week
   as moisture from tropical storm Elida gets wrapped up in a
   mid-latitude trough.

   The building ridge aloft and lack of robust surface pressure
   features across the West will keep winds relatively light across the
   western coastal states where fuels are more receptive. Longer term
   ensemble guidance suggests a return to breezy conditions across
   portions of CA and the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 7/Thursday
   where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added to
   northeastern CA/southern OR. Ensemble cluster analysis suggests a
   more inland push of an upper-trough into the Pacific Northwest on
   Day 8/Friday, with a broader 40 percent critical probability area
   introduced into much of central OR, northeastern CA and adjacent
   northwest NV. The thunderstorm threat across CA and the Pacific
   Northwest remains very sensitive to the expected track of a
   subtropical moisture plume from tropical storm Elida. Thunderstorms
   could threaten central/northern CA as early as Day 5/Tuesday, moving
   into the Pacific Northwest by Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday. For this
   outlook, introduced a 10 percent dry thunderstorm probability for
   initial surge of subtropical moisture into northern CA and southern
   OR, although this could change based on future model guidance.

   ..Williams.. 07/17/2026