ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230614

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0114 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An embedded upper-level short wave trough and attendant plume of
   mid/upper level sub-tropical moisture moves into the Southwest by
   Day 2/Wednesday, bringing a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of
   the Southwest and Four Corners region. Early in the day, convection
   will likely be ongoing over portions of southwest UT before becoming
   more widespread to include much of the larger Isolated Dry Thunder
   area as daytime heating continues. The escalating precipitable water
   values associated with this increasingly progressive moisture plume
   will be watched closely with future forecast issuances given their
   potential to dampen dry thunderstorm potential. However, given the
   widespread critically dry fuels, preceding hot and dry surface
   conditions before convection starts and the dry sub-cloud layer,
   even if modeled precipitation amounts trend upward, a fire weather
   threat will still exist from lightning ignitions across this region.
   Wetter storms working to conceal potential ignitions followed by the
   hot, dry, and very windy pattern change on the horizon later this
   week for this region could become particularly concerning given the
   propensity for lightning holdovers.

   The Elevated wind/RH area over eastern NV was also slightly adjusted
   commensurate with the latest forecast models depicting a corridor of
   10-20 mph sustained south to southwesterly winds over this portion
   of the western Great Basin where hot and dry (5-15%) conditions will
   exist through the afternoon.

   ..Stearns.. 06/23/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222201

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An embedded upper short wave and attendant plume of mid/upper level
   sub-tropical moisture moves into the Southwest by Day 3/Wednesday,
   bringing a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of the Southwest and
   Four Corners region. Another embedded short wave translates eastward
   into the Interior West by Day 4/Thursday maintaining dry
   thunderstorm potential across CO Plateau and Four Corners. An
   amplifying wave pattern emerges late in the week with strong and dry
   southwest flow posing a broad and considerable fire weather concerns
   for the eastern Great Basin and much of the Southwest Days
   5-6/Friday-Saturday. Troughing across the West with a building ridge
   over the eastern U.S. will likely sustain fire weather concerns for
   much of the Southwest through early next week under enhanced
   southwest flow and dry conditions.

   ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
   An approaching short wave impulse and accompanying mid-level Pacific
   moisture plume will likely bring a broad area of isolated high-based
   convection to the Southwest, centered around the Four Corners region
   on Day 3/Wednesday. Another upper-level wave edges towards the
   Northern Rockies in Day 4/Thursday, aiding in isolated thunderstorm
   development across the greater Four Corners region. New ignitions
   are possible with receptive fuels in place and limited surface
   precipitation attributed to a dry, sub-cloud layer supportive of
   evaporation. Additionally, drier southwest flow, west of the deeper
   Pacific moisture, will yield a fire weather threat to the eastern
   Great Basin both Wednesday and Thursday. A 40% critical probability
   area was added to eastern NV and west-central UT in addition to
   general expansion of the 10% isolated dry thunderstorm probability
   areas.

   ...Day 5-6/Friday-Saturday...
   A unseasonable strong mid-level jet overspreads much of the Interior
   West late this week as an upper trough amplifies across the
   Northwestern U.S., scouring out remaining meaningful atmospheric
   moisture across the Southwest. Latest forecast guidance suggests a
   corridor of stronger southwest winds of 25-35 mph developing under
   the stronger jet across the southern Great Basin into northern AZ on
   Day 5/Friday, shifting into southeastern UT and the CO Western Slope
   by Saturday. Primary changes for this outlook were the inclusion of
   70% critical probability areas for both Friday and Saturday as
   confidence continues to increase in a appreciable wind event,
   potentially impacting nascent wildfires born from thunderstorm
   activity on Wednesday and Thursday.

   ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday...
   Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
   troughing across the West should support a prolonged fire weather
   threat across the CO Plateau, Four Corners and parts of the
   Southwest through early next week. As such, 40% critical
   probabilities have been added for Day 8/Monday given increasing
   forecast confidence in longer term ensemble guidance. Fuels are
   expected to remain quite receptive through early next week with only
   some reprieve in isolated areas that receive appreciable rainfall in
   the days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday time frame.

   ..Williams.. 06/22/2026