U.S. Alerts
El Dorado Weather Logo
U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
Imagery from Canada Weather

U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 091615

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

   Valid 091700Z - 101200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   Satellite imagery and surface observations show areas of low level
   clouds and fog adjacent to the Elevated area over the central High
   Plains this morning. However, these clouds are already beginning to
   clear as daytime heating continues across the region. As mixing
   increases, clearing any remaining clouds and increasing surface
   winds, all areas remain on track to meet thresholds later today.
   Thus, only minor tweaks were made to the outlook areas to reflect
   the latest trends in forecast guidance placement of the
   aforementioned surface features. While RH conditions look to be more
   marginal across the central High Plains outlook area, strong
   westerly winds are still anticipated over this region this afternoon
   with plenty of solar radiation and above normal temperatures.

   ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Split mid-level flow will continue over the US today as an upper low
   moves into the Southwest and a second upper trough crosses the
   northern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains will
   support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow
   over regions with receptive fuels. Elevated to critical fire-weather
   conditions are probable.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Ahead of the northern upper trough, initial cyclogenesis should
   continue as a trailing lee trough deepens over the High Plains.
   Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase near the surface
   low, and will peak during the late afternoon hours. Sustained winds
   of 15-25 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% are expected.
   Despite some recent precipitation, fine fuels are receptive after
   multiple days of persistent downslope winds, supporting widespread
   elevated and fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions
   of eastern WY into western and central NE. Fire-weather conditions
   will end overnight as a cold front associated with the departing
   surface low moves southward, ushering in cooler air over the central
   Plains.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Lee troughing south of the deepening surface low will support 15-25
   mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles
   this afternoon. Dry air advecting and downsloping into the region
   today will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A
   swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from
   northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow
   aloft. Despite precipitation in the last several days, continued
   drying and downslope winds will support drying of fine fuels and
   elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions into parts of
   western OK.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 091916

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was introduced overlapping
   portions of the existing Elevated area and also extending north into
   southwestern and central Kansas. As previously mentioned in the
   initial Day 2/Tuesday Outlook, the environment is supportive of
   thunderstorm development across much of the southern Plains as also
   indicated in the general thunderstorm forecast. Along and behind the
   dryline on the western periphery of anticipated severe convection,
   precipitable water values, indicative of moisture above a dry
   sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an inch and are not
   expected to lead to significant rainfall accumulation. Storm motion
   peaking at 30-40 knots across the southern portion of the Isolated
   Dry Thunderstorm area is also an additive factor in this
   environment. While confidence exists in dry thunderstorm development
   on Day 2/Tuesday, the exact coverage, in particular adjacent to and
   within the southern end of the drawn area, could be affected by
   changes in the movement of the surface dryline and/or the cutoff
   low's progression.

   The Elevated area was trimmed slightly across portions of extreme
   southeastern New Mexico and west-central Texas in agreement with
   latest forecast guidance. Guidance also indicates that portions of
   the Elevated area may not reach elevated criteria with recent
   HREF/REFS probabilities of less than 20%.

   ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the
   southern Plains D2/Tuesday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will
   intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a
   trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of
   the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread
   showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind
   the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some
   fire-weather potential.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   As the upper low over the Southwest moves northeastward, strong flow
   aloft and ascent will overspread parts of the southern High Plains.
   A surface low will deepen with a surface trough/dryline supporting
   dry downslope flow across the southern Rockies and High Plains on D2
   (Tuesday afternoon). Gusty west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph are
   expected along with afternoon humidity of 20-25%. This should
   support elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of West TX,
   the Rio Grande Valley and far eastern NM where fuels remain dry and
   receptive.

   The potential for precipitation and the location of the dryline
   remain a significant source of uncertainty on the overall areal
   extent and magnitude of the fire-weather threat D2/Tuesday. Showers
   and thunderstorms are expected both to the west and east of the
   dryline. Cloud cover and increasing humidity may also limit the
   potential for more intense fire-weather conditions despite
   relatively strong surface winds. Changes will likely be needed to
   the eastern extent of the Elevated area as details surrounding
   dryline and precipitation placement become clearer on Day1/Monday.

   While storms are likely over central NM, relatively modest moisture
   profiles (PWATS generally under 0.6 inches) suggest a few of these
   storms may not be overly productive for wetting rainfall. With steep
   low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy, a few lightning strikes
   are possible. These storms could be drier with the potential for
   lightning to interact with receptive fuels. However, dry
   thunderstorm coverage appears too low to introduce probabilities at
   this time.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092143

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

   Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

   The upper level low currently over the southwest CONUS will push
   eastward across the southern US through the week. Upper level flow
   largely becomes zonal in the wake of this low, with shortwave trough
   passages impacting northern and central portions of the CONUS. This
   will lead to dry air in place just east of the Rocky Mountains over
   portions of the High Plains. While the pattern remains on track from
   previous days, the exact timing and placement of daily areas will
   likely fluctuate with surface features dominating the forecast.

   On Day 4/Thursday, strong west-northwest winds sustained up to 30
   mph will impact the surface behind a frontal boundary. Thanks to the
   cold frontal passage, RHs will likely reach near-critical
   thresholds, bottoming out around 15-25% across a good portion of the
   High Plains stretching all the way from northeast New Mexico to
   eastern Wyoming. Thus, the existing two areas of 40% probabilities
   were combined and also extended further north just barely into
   southeastern Montana. The 70% area was similarly extended toward
   this direction over extreme eastern Wyoming and southwest South
   Dakota as well. Higher elevations of the Black Hills are not
   expected to reach critical thresholds.

   On Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday, additional 40% probabilities
   were similarly added over portions of the same area. Thus, eastern
   Wyoming and western Nebraska in particular should expect multiple
   consecutive days of potential critical fire weather conditions on
   Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday leading into the coming
   weekend. Though, strong westerly winds will be less widespread on
   Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday. This will lead to only slightly
   higher afternoon RHs as well with cooler air in place and slightly
   less mixing.

   ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026
      




Contact Us Contact Us Thumbnail | Mobile Mobile Phone Thumbnail
Private Policy | Terms & Conds | Consent Preferences | Cookie Policy
Never base any life decisions on weather information from this site or anywhere over the Internet.
Site is dedicated to our Lord & Savior Jesus Christ | Random Quotes of Jesus

Copyright © 2026 El Dorado Weather, Inc. | Site Designed By:  Webmaster Danny