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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 041526

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1026 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

   Valid 041700Z - 051200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes were made to the previous forecast. As was previously
   mentioned, rainfall over portions of Texas yesterday and last night
   has dampened any fire weather threat there today. Farther west over
   portions of southern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, the
   duration, coverage, and magnitude of surface wind is likely to
   remain below elevated thresholds according to the latest forecast
   guidance. See below for additional details.

   ..Stearns.. 04/04/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A potent mid-level trough and attendant surface low will progress
   northeastward across the Great Lakes region today, with upper-level
   ridging building across the West. A trailing cold front will
   progress east-southeastward across the Mississippi/Ohio River
   Valleys and southern Texas, with high pressure building into the
   Great Plains. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values
   are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns.

   ...Portions of the Texas Rollings Plains into southern New Mexico
   and southeastern Arizona...
   High resolution guidance continues to depict the potential for
   locally elevated fire weather concerns from portions of the Texas
   Rolling Plains into southern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona where
   sustained northeasterly to easterly surface winds around 15 mph may
   briefly overlap reduced RH below 20%. The best chance for locally
   elevated fire weather conditions appears to be across the Lowland
   Desert of southwestern New Mexico into the San Simon Valley of
   southeastern Arizona where terrain effects may locally enhance
   sustained winds amid low RH values of 15-20%. Uncertainty in the
   duration and areal extent of winds above 15 mph precludes the
   addition of Elevated highlights at this time. 

   Farther east across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains, recent and
   ongoing precipitation is expected to limit widespread fire weather
   concerns. Locally elevated conditions will be possible for areas
   that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulation over the last 48
   hours, however.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 041750

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area, resulting in
   slight expansion over portions of southeast Colorado and
   south-central New Mexico. As previously mentioned, the uncertainty
   of cloud cover prevented expansion any farther south. Fuel
   conditions across much of the highlighted and surrounding area of
   the southern Plains are some of the driest within the CONUS right
   now. Possible expansion to include more of southeast New Mexico will
   be monitored with future forecast issuances.

   ..Stearns.. 04/04/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level ridging will be in place across the West on D2/Sunday,
   with longwave upper-level troughing across the Great
   Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place
   across the central Great Plains while a cold front progresses
   eastward across the East Coast and Southeast. A second cold front
   will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains.

   ...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
   A tightened pressure gradient on the western periphery of the
   aforementioned surface high will favor sustained 15-20 mph
   south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
   With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
   cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
   values dropping to 10-20% across much of southern High Plains. This
   combination of winds and RH atop dry, receptive fuels should promote
   elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours Sunday
   afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a potential southward
   expansion of Elevated highlights; however, uncertainty owing to
   greater mid/high cloud cover and more marginal RH values precludes
   such an expansion at this time.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042130

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0430 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   Upper-level ridging over the western US will begin to dampen on Day
   3/Monday as due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
   Meanwhile, an upper-level trough and significant cold front will be
   moving across the Eastern Seaboard, having left accumulated
   precipitation across much of the central and eastern US. The second
   trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern half
   of the CONUS on Day 5/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
   border. On Day 6/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
   central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
   will remain over California through Day 8/Saturday, contributing to
   potentially multiple days of precipitation, particularly over
   California and the western Great Basin.

   ...Southern Plains (Day 3/Monday and Day 5/Wednesday)...
   Very similar to, but slightly east of, Day 2/Sunday, a tightened
   surface pressure gradient will result in sustained south-southwest
   winds of 15-20 mph over portions of the southern High Plains. This
   combination of wind with afternoon RHs of 10-15%, supports continued
   40% probabilities over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and much of
   southwest Kansas. Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient
   supports south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to
   10-15% over portions of the southern High Plains again on Day
   5/Wednesday. Much of this region is favored for accumulating
   precipitation as the aforementioned low pressure system moves inland
   likely late next week.

   ...Southeast (Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday)...
   One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
   accumulating precipitation is just south/east of central and
   southern Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and
   South Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated
   fire weather conditions on Day 4/Tuesday across southern Georgia and
   Day 5/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.
   However, fuel receptivity remains in question due to preceding
   precipitation, especially on Day 2/Sunday and Day 3/Monday.

   ...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday)...
   While some potential for critical conditions will exist across
   portions of the eastern Great Basin and surrounding areas as the
   upper-level ridge breaks down on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday,
   recent precipitation and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
   preclude any probabilities. While this event will dry fuels across
   this region, additional precipitation appears likely with the
   aforementioned low pressure system later in the week.

   ..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
      




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