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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 150706
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Deep, longwave troughing will begin to depart offshore of the East
Coast today as separate areas of upper troughing persist over the
southern Plains and approach the Pacific Northwest coastline. These
features will continue to bring chances for precipitation to much of
the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and across portions of the southern
Plains and ArkLaTex. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered over
the Midwest will continue to bring cooler and drier conditions to
much of the Southeast. Minimum RH values are forecast to range from
20-35% today from the lower Mississippi River Valley eastward into
Georgia and parts of South Carolina; however, generally light winds
(10 mph or less) and only modestly receptive fuels will suppress
overall fire weather concerns.
..Chalmers.. 11/15/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150721
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A robust upper trough will pivot onshore across the West Coast on
D2/Monday as upper ridging shifts eastward into the Great Plains
from the Rockies/Intermountain West. Farther east, weaker upper
troughing will linger across the Southeast as shortwave ridging
aloft builds into the Northeast. This pattern will continue to
support chances for precipitation across much of the West
Coast/Intermountain West, with a separate area of rain chances
forecast along portions of the western/central Gulf Coast. Surface
high pressure will persist across the Ohio Valley, with modestly
warming daytime temperatures and dry conditions forecast across
portions of the Southeast. Minimum RH values of 20-35% should
continue across the lower Mississippi River Valley, but light winds
will continue to limit widespread fire weather concerns.
..Chalmers.. 11/15/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142133
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure is expected to reside across the eastern CONUS
through next week, maintaining dry conditions amid rising daytime
high temperatures from the lower MS River Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic. Forecast annual ERCs will approach the 80-90th
percentile by late next week across the Piedmont, though lighter
prevailing winds should reduce broader fire weather concerns.
Meanwhile, the western U.S. will be categorized by an active
troughing pattern through the forecast period. An initial shortwave
trough and entrained Pacific moisture will promote precipitation
across portions of the Interior West through Day 4/Tuesday, then
eject into the central/northern Plains on Day 5/Wednesday. This
system could induce enhanced downslope winds and drying across
portions of the central Plains behind a passing cold front.
Ambiguity in the timing of the trough ejection and potential for
additional precipitation with the trough arrival limits
predictability of the fire weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday.
Furthermore, a strong upper low is forecast to move onshore and
translate over the western CONUS late next week/weekend. However,
too much uncertainty in the quality of mid-level moisture and
timing/strength of the trough progression will again limit
predictability.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/14/2026
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