ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180607

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A robust mid-level trough will gradually approach the Pacific
   Northwest coastline on D2/Monday as a closed mid-level low meanders
   off the East Coast. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will remain
   positioned across much of the Plains and lower/mid Mississippi
   Valley. Simultaneously, surface high pressure will remain anchored
   across the Ohio Valley, with dry conditions persisting across the
   lower MS Valley. Generally light winds will largely mitigate fire
   weather concerns over this region, however. Farther west,
   strengthening southwesterly surface winds ahead of the
   aforementioned mid-level shortwave trough are forecast to support
   elevated fire weather concerns across portions of the western Great
   Basin Monday afternoon.

   ...Northeastern California, southern/southeastern Oregon, and
   northwestern Nevada...
   Southwesterly surface winds will strengthen ahead of the approach of
   both a robust mid-level shortwave trough off of the Pacific
   Northwest coastline and a surface front approaching from the north.
   Wind speeds around 15-20 mph (with localized gusts up to 25-30 mph
   possible, particularly across the northern Sierra) amid minimum
   daytime RH of ~20% (locally lower) are forecast to support elevated
   fire weather conditions across a region where ERCs are around the
   80-90th percentiles.

   ..Chalmers.. 10/18/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172104

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0404 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper pattern will remain fairly stagnant across the eastern
   half of the CONUS through early next week. Upper ridging will
   continue over the central U.S. as a cut-off low meanders along the
   Atlantic coast through Day 4/Tuesday. High pressure will build over
   Southeast and prevail through the forecast period, promoting warm
   daytime temperatures and dry conditions where fuels are growing
   increasingly more receptive in the lower MS River Valley (forecast
   ERCs at or above the 95th percentile by Day 5/Wednesday). Lighter
   prevailing winds should keep broader fire weather concerns low,
   however.

   Farther west, an upper trough will impinge upon the Pacific
   Northwest on Day 3/Monday, increasing southwesterly flow over the
   Great Basin. Upper troughing will amplify as it digs into the
   southwestern U.S., potentially ejecting into the Great Plains
   late-week. This pattern should bring additional precipitation and
   cooler temperatures to much of the Intermountain West, and
   potentially provide some relief to a drying fuelscape across the
   Coast Ranges and Sierra Nevada in California.

   ...Day 3/Monday - Northeastern California and Northwest Great
   Basin...
   A robust mid/upper trough is expected to bring enhanced
   southwesterly flow back into the western U.S. by early next week.
   Dry and breezy conditions in advance of the trough will promote an
   increasing fire weather threat over northeastern CA, far
   southeastern OR, and northwestern NV on Day 3/Monday where fuels
   remain dry in the absence of recent precipitation. Thus, 40%
   critical probabilities have been maintained across the region.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/17/2026