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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 140509
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and associated stronger mid-level westerly
flow will push into the northern Plains while upper ridging slides
over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a dry cold front extending
south of a central Canadian surface low will permit a breezy post
frontal environment, bringing widespread fire weather concerns to
the northern/central Plains. Farther south, tightening surface
pressure gradients east of the CO/NM higher terrain will promote
enhanced downslope flow and deep layer mixing. Increasing mid-level
moisture and subtle forcing associating with an approaching short
wave impulse could aid in high-based thunderstorm development across
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles.
...Northern Plains...
Strong post frontal westerly winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 20-30%
amid dry fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat across
the Dakotas. Farther west, more pronounced deep-layer westerly flow
will yield sustained west winds of 30-45 mph across central and
eastern MT during peak afternoon heating. Limited RH reductions,
light precipitation over the last 24 hours, and green up across
southern MT should mitigate an otherwise critical fire weather
environment. Ahead of an eastward progressing cold front, strong
southerly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) will persist
through the afternoon hours across northwestern IA into western MN.
Despite modest RH values of 25-35%, a mixed fuelscape of partial
green up and sporadic dry fuels combined with very strong winds
could support fire spread. Thus, Elevated highlights have been
expanded to encompass this threat.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph amid RH of 15-20% will support
Elevated fire weather concerns from far southeastern AZ into much of
southeastern NM and the southern Plains where delayed green up has
allowed fuels to remain receptive. Ascent associated with the
arrival of the mid-level perturbation alongside afternoon heating
and resultant instability should support showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the OK/TX Panhandles and adjacent CO/KS areas
this afternoon. Forecast soundings depict PWATs of 0.6-0.8" with a
prominent dry sub-cloud layer up to 3 km. This should limit
appreciable precipitation at the surface, allowing the threat of dry
thunderstorms to evolve. Gusty outflow winds and some lightning
ignitions are possible in existing dry fuels where an IsoDryT risk
has been maintained.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/14/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 140511
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK AND UPPER
ROLLING PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Broadly zonal flow aloft with an embedded shortwave will traverse
the Upper Midwest on Friday. At the surface, a continued post
frontal environment beneath a departing deep surface low in Ontario
will promote strong westerly winds within a dry airmass across the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A mid-level impulse and emerging
lee surface low across the southern Plains will further enhance
downslope drying and breezy surface winds, supporting fire weather
concerns across southeastern NM into the TX Panhandle.
...Northern Plains...
Deep westerly flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients
beneath a departing Canadian surface low will encourage widespread
dry and breezy conditions. Westerly winds of up to 20 mph and RH
values of 25-30% support fire weather concerns across the region.
Adjustments to the Elevated risk may be needed in future outlooks as
precipitation continues into the early morning hours of Day
1/Thursday across portions of eastern MT.
...Southern Plains...
South of a developing lee surface low over western OK, enhanced
downslope winds of 15-20 mph will align with RH reductions to less
than 15% across southeastern NM into the southern TX Panhandle.
Elevated highlights have been introduced where these conditions
overlap dry and receptive fuels. Furthermore, a narrow region of
likely 20-25 mph winds and 10-15% RH (single digits locally) has
prompted the introduction of Critical highlights across the Caprock
and upper Rolling Plains.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/14/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132153
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
An embedded short wave within broader westerly mid-level flow will
move into the Upper Midwest by Day 3/Friday. Robust west winds at
the surface in the wake of a departing deep surface low in Ontario
will bring keep a fire weather threat across much of the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. A more subtle mid-level
perturbation ejects into the Southern Plains Friday as an associated
lee surface low develops across the High Plains, supporting dry and
breezy conditions and enhanced fire weather concerns. A multi-day
fire weather threat is likely across portions of the Southwest and
Southern Plains as a larger scale trough sets up over the western
U.S. with persistent southwest flow aloft bolstering lee trough
formation across the Southern Plains.
...Day 3/Friday...
...Northern Plains...
Dry and breezy westerly flow in the wake of a cold front will likely
enhance fire weather concerns across portions of eastern MT into the
Dakotas and western Minnesota, where fuels remain receptive.
However, changes to current Day 3/Friday forecast are possible
depending on rainfall distribution from Day 2/Thursday.
...Southern Plains...
A swath of enhanced southwest winds will likely develop south of a
lee surface low across the TX Panhandle across portions of the
southern High Plains Friday. Enhanced downslope drying as the subtle
short wave aloft shifts into the Southern Plains along with breezy
southwest winds and dry fuels should promote a fire weather threat
amid dry fuels. 40% critical probabilities were introduced across
southeastern NM and adjacent far West TX, northeastward into far
southwestern OK.
...Day 4-7/Saturday-Tuesday...
Fire weather concerns shift mainly into portions of the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a larger scale upper trough anchors over
western CONUS for the weekend into early next week. Persistent
southwesterly flow aloft will aid in lee trough development across
the Southern Plains, driving dry and breezy conditions over the
Southwest and southern High Plains.
...California...
Stronger northwest flow on the backside of the trough with an
accompanying Pacific cold front shifts southeastward over the
weekend. Dry, post frontal flow funneling through the CA Central
Valley should bring a fire weather threat to this region on Day
5/Sunday as finer fuels and grasses dry leading up to the stronger
northerly/northwesterly wind event. 40% critical probabilities were
added to the CA Central Valley to cover this potential threat.
..Williams.. 05/13/2026
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