ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120655

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper ridging will traverse the Southeast as a mid-level trough
   overspreads the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday). Surface high
   pressure and associated cooler temperatures will linger over the
   Appalachians and points east. Meanwhile, surface low development
   over the southern Plains will promote a continued moistening
   low-level airmass, along with appreciable rainfall accumulations
   from showers and thunderstorms. As such, quiescent fire weather
   conditions are expected across the CONUS on Friday.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112151

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

   Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

   Very active upper and mid-level flow will persist across CONUS
   through the extended forecast period. An upper trough and associated
   surface low will move from the southern High Plains early Day
   4/Saturday eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through
   Day 5/Sunday. Another upper-level trough enters the West on Day
   6/Monday, progressing east over the Central and Southern High
   Plains. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is expected this
   weekend and possibly early next week, given the strong mid-level
   flow and increasing western US troughing. 

   ...Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley: Day 4/Saturday...
   Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 4/Saturday
   afternoon/evening as the mid/upper-level trough impinges on the area
   and an associated surface low strengthens over the Southern Plains.
   Uncertainties remain regarding precipitation placement on Day
   1/Wednesday and also Day 4/Saturday. Ensemble guidance continues to
   suggest a relative minimum in precipitation across portions of South
   Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. The aforementioned area could see
   RH values between 15-25 percent and west-northwesterly surface winds
   of 15-25 mph. A 40% probability of Critical fire weather conditions
   will be maintained where the dry and breezy conditions will likely
   overlap dry fuels. 

   ...Southern and Central High Plains: Day 5/Sunday - Day 6/Monday...
   Fire weather conditions may increase across portions of the Southern
   and Central High Plains on Day 5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday as a
   mid-level trough approaches from the west and a surface lee cyclone
   strengthens. Increasing southerly flow and low relative humidity
   could support increasing fire weather potential given dry fuels.
   There is some uncertainty given the potential for precipitation this
   weekend, precluding the introduction of probabilities currently. 

   Later in the week (Day 7/Tuesday - Day 8/Wednesday) the secondary
   mid-level trough will move from the west across the Rockies into the
   Central and Southern High Plains region. Varying model trends and
   significant timing differences lend to lower predictability
   regarding the evolution of this system. However, the potential
   exists for a strong lee-cyclone and downslope flow supporting
   Critical fire weather conditions later in the week. Nonetheless,
   this is conditional upon fuel moisture given the possibility of
   rainfall earlier in the forecast period.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/11/2026