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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281554
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
The Elevated area was expanded slightly to the northwest in the
Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia and trimmed along the
eastern/southern edges based on the latest observations and
high-resolution forecast guidance. Elevated winds/RH are already
occurring in portions of the risk area as the forecast remains on
track. Please see the previous discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 11/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/
...Synopsis...
Diurnal heating amid a dry post-frontal air mass will result in
15-25 percent afternoon RH across parts of the Southeast. These dry
conditions combined with breezy/gusty northerly surface winds
(sustained around 15 mph) will result in elevated fire-weather
conditions across parts of southern GA and the western half of the
FL Peninsula during the afternoon, given dry/receptive fuels.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 281853
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 11/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/
...Synopsis...
Breezy surface winds are expected across the southern High Plains in
the vicinity of a cold front moving through the area. Over southeast
NM, around 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will
briefly overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of the front during the
afternoon. However, marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather
concerns.
Farther east, dry return flow is expected across parts of the
Southeast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible (given receptive fuels), generally light surface winds
should limit the overall fire-weather risk compared to previous
days.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282114
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 061200Z
An upper-level trough will track out of the Rockies and strengthen
over the Midwest/Great Lakes Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, while
another upper-level trough will move out of the Intermountain West
and deepen over the central US Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. Yet
another upper-level trough is likely to move southward into the West
Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday. Late in the period, upper-level
ridging is likely over the northeast Pacific onto the West Coast
with upper-level troughing over the eastern US.
Overall, fire weather concerns will be mostly low, but there may be
some locations at times where elevated fire weather conditions are
possible. Multiple days of dry/breezy conditions are likely on
portions of the southern High Plains ahead of expected cold frontal
passages this upcoming week, but there is a fair amount of forecast
uncertainty regarding the magnitude and location of these dry/breezy
conditions. Widespread rainfall is likely across most of the
Southeast, but portions of southern Georgia and Florida could
receive little appreciable rainfall, with dry post-frontal
conditions likely mid to late next week. Given the forecast tracks
of the upper-level troughs over the West, periodic offshore winds in
California, especially southern California, are likely. However,
fuels are unlikely to be receptive given the recent precipitation
across the state, and only potentially elevated winds/RH are
forecast currently.
..Nauslar.. 11/28/2025
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