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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 081630
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the ongoing forecast; please see the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
A jet streak will round the base of the upper-level trough over the
New England states later today. Meanwhile, a cold front accompanying
this system will continue progressing southeast through much of the
Northeast CONUS and Mid-Atlantic area by this evening. While
northwesterly winds behind the front could gust up to 20-30 mph,
these strongest speeds will likely remain constrained to the Great
Lakes region. Regardless, RHs struggle to drop below 30% behind this
frontal passage. Sub-critical fuels amid heightened humidity will
preclude any significant fire weather threat.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 081912
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING...
The forecast remains on track for Day 2/Friday. A minor expansion
was made to the Critical fire weather risk area across portions of
northeastern Wyoming, where a slightly broader region of sustained
southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph and RH values of 10-20% will
overlap ERCs approaching the 90th percentile. Please see the
previous discussion for additional details.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
On Day 2/Friday, an upper-level trough advancing southeastward into
the Pacific Northwest, paired with a surface cold front, will create
impactful fire weather conditions across portions of the northern
and western CONUS. Prolonged dry, warm conditions beneath a
persistent upper-level ridge have significantly cured fuels
throughout the region. Energy Release Components are forecast to
exceed the 80th percentile across the highlighted risk areas prior
to the onset of stronger winds.
...Much of Wyoming, central Montana, southwestern South Dakota, and
far northwest Nebraska...
Enhanced west-southwesterly flow on Day 2/Friday will drive
well-above-normal temperatures and promote seasonally deep
boundary-layer mixing. A tightening surface pressure gradient, tied
to a deepening lee low further north, and a southward progressing
cold front, transiting through Montana around sunset, will bring
drier air into the region with minimum RH values falling to 15 to 20
percent. In tandem, sustained west-southwest surface winds ahead of
the aforementioned front will increase to 15 to 20 mph across much
of the northern High Plains and adjacent terrain, warranting an
Elevated fire weather area.
Furthermore, a Critical fire weather area has been introduced for
portions of northeastern Wyoming. This corridor is expected to
experience the most favorable overlap of strong southwest winds
sustained at 20 to 25 mph, critically low afternoon RH values
between 10 and 20 percent, and highly receptive fuels near the 90th
ERC percentile.
...Southeast Oregon, Northeast California, and the far western Great
Basin...
West-southwesterly flow will similarly support anomalously warm
temperatures and seasonally deep mixing across this region. As the
surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold
front, west-southwest surface winds will strengthen to 15 to 20 mph
and turn toward the northwest as the front passes through
southeastern Oregon in the late afternoon. Combined with afternoon
relative humidity values dropping to near 15 to 20 percent over dry
fuels, these conditions will support a targeted Elevated fire
weather threat.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082158
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the western CONUS will phase with
tropical remnants, transporting widespread precipitation to parts of
the Desert Southwest and the eastern Great Basin through early next
week. Enhanced southwesterly flow at the base of the trough and a
southward progressing cold front will promote elevated fire weather
conditions along the Sierra Front into central Nevada, and across
eastern Wyoming on Day 3/Saturday. The eastern CONUS will be
characterized by shortwave troughing and lingering tropical moisture
through Day 5/Monday, bringing relief to drying fuels in the
Mid-South and Ohio Valley.
...Day 3/Saturday...
...Sierra Front into Central Nevada...
Following a prolonged period of dry conditions and little to no
rainfall over the last 30 days, fuels have grown increasingly more
receptive with ERCs approaching the 80th percentile. Strengthening
southwesterly 500 mb winds will support downsloping into the Sierra
Front, with guidance indicating sustained southwesterly surface
winds of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. These winds are expected
to continue through the evening, and perhaps overnight hours as
southwesterly flow aloft continues to amplify as the trough digs
south. Afternoon RH values will range from 10-20% in western/central
NV, and 15-25% near the Sierra Front. Thus, 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced.
...Parts of the Northern Plains...
Guidance has continued to trend towards a lower likelihood of
Critical fire weather conditions in southwestern WY on Day
3/Saturday, resulting in a more confined area of 40% Critical
probabilities in eastern WY, extreme southwestern SD and
northwestern NE. This will be a second consecutive day of dry and
breezy conditions across the region where receptive fuels exist.
Sustained southwesterly surface winds near 20 mph amid 15-25% RH
values will maintain fire weather concerns.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/08/2026
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