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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120551
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will pivot into the Pacific Northwest today as a
broader ridge over much of the West begins to shift eastward.
Moisture advection from the Pacific, falling H500 heights and
subsequent increasing instability will promote thunderstorm
development across northern WA, the ID Panhandle and northwestern MT
this afternoon and evening. Dry and breezy conditions between the
Pacific Northwest trough and more expansive monsoon moisture across
the southern Intermountain West will promote elevated fire weather
concerns across portions of northeastern CA, northwestern NV and the
Upper Snake River Plain. A deepening surface low across central KS
will result in enhanced southerly winds across the Southern Plains
this afternoon. Elevated fire weather concerns remain for portions
of the TX/OK Panhandles, northwestern OK and adjacent portions of
KS/CO.
...Southern Plains...
Enhanced southerly winds within a well mixed boundary layer south of
the surface low across KS will evolve late this morning into the
afternoon. South winds of around 15 mph (locally 20 mph at times)
and low relative humidity during peak heating will promote elevated
fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains. Above normal
temperatures in the lower 100s F will contribute to low afternoon
RH, with increasingly dry conditions farther west across
southeastern CO and eastern NM where RH below 10 percent is
possible. Fuels continue to dry, with ERC values climbing into the
97-99th percentiles under multiple days of triple digit heat and dry
conditions, curing fine fuels. Existing elevated highlights were
shifted slightly westward given latest model/ensemble guidance.
...Northeastern Washington, Idaho Panhandle and Northwestern
Montana...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to initially develop over
more complex terrain of northern WA, ID Panhandle and northwestern
MT this afternoon as a mid-level trough enters the Pacific
Northwest. Wetting rains are possible under heavier rain cores with
PWAT values nearing 1.00". However, fuels should remain receptive to
potential ignitions outside of these heavier cores. Latest CAM
guidance suggests some lingering thunderstorm potential into the
evening and overnight hours in the northern Columbia Basin, in
addition to increasing east-northeast storm trajectories as the
trough pushes farther into WA. This should limit rainfall
accumulations and support a dry lightning threat for portions of the
northern Columbia Basin where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights
have been extended.
...Northern Great Basin and Upper Snake River Plain of Idaho...
Dry and breezy conditions north of an advancing monsoon moisture
plume across the Southwest will bring elevated fire weather concerns
to northeastern CA, northwestern NV, far southern OR and the Upper
Snake River Plain in ID. West winds of around 15 mph combined with
RH locally below 10 percent amid very dry fuels will support an
elevated fire weather threat today. Elevated highlights were
extended eastward into north-central NV and adjacent OR/ID areas.
..Williams.. 08/12/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120552
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid/upper troughing becomes established along the West Coast while
upper ridging edges eastward towards the Great Plains. An embedded
short wave translating northeastward into CA/NV will bring a few
high-based thunderstorms within a corridor of fringe monsoonal
moisture across portions of the northern Great Basin. Additional
thunderstorms associated with another embedded mid-level
perturbation will affect portions of the Northern Rockies.
...Southern Plains...
Persistent southerly winds south of a surface low across KS will
maintain a fire weather threat into D2/Thursday across portions of
the Southern Plains. South winds of up to 15 mph amid low RH and
exceptionally dry fuels will support a few hours of elevated fire
weather concerns for western OK and eastern TX Panhandle. A diffuse
convergence zone will stretch southwestward from the surface low
across KS. Sufficient mid-level moisture and instability atop a well
mixed and dry sub-cloud boundary layer near this boundary will
support afternoon convection across portions of the TX Panhandle,
northwestern OK and adjacent areas of southern KS Thursday
afternoon. Receptive fuels with ERC values in the 97-99th percentile
range and cured fine fuels could promote a few ignitions outside of
heavier rain cores from these initially high-based thunderstorms.
Downdraft CAPE of 1500 J/kg or greater will evolve as surface
temperatures climb into the lower 100s F yet again, increasing
potential for downburst winds impacting any potential ignitions/new
fire starts. Introduced isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to
cover this threat.
...Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies...
A mid-level short wave will translate into the Great Basin Thursday,
interacting with more diffuse monsoon moisture where PWATs in the
0.6-0.9" range settle across the northern Great Basin. Isolated
high-based thunderstorms are expected to evolve Thursday afternoon
across northeastern CA into southeastern OR, far northwestern NV and
southwestern ID. New ignitions are possible outside more intense
rain cores with ERCs still in the 90-95th percentile. Another
mid-level wave will promote convection across portions of the
Northern Rockies. Northeastward storm trajectories up to 30 mph will
limit rainfall in some thunderstorms, increasing ignition potential
over dry fuels. Some modifications were made to these highlighted
areas based on latest model guidance but largely remain intact.
..Williams.. 08/12/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 112155
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
As troughing builds across the western CONUS, high pressure will
gradually translate eastward and settle into the Southeast this
weekend. As a result, hot, dry, and breezy conditions will promote
fire concerns across portions of the southern Plains, and contribute
to the drying of fuels into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As
monsoonal moisture continues to advect northward, daily chances for
thunderstorms are expected throughout the Desert Southwest, Great
Basin, and Colorado Rockies. Upper troughing and embedded
disturbances over the West should encourage thunderstorms and
wetting rain potential across much of the Rocky Mountain chain into
the High Plains.
...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday...
...Northwestern CONUS...
Troughing will settle over the western CONUS, encouraging monsoonal
moisture to advect northward. Embedded disturbances within
southwesterly to southerly flow aloft amid sufficient instability
will generate 5-15% probabilities of isolated afternoon
thunderstorms across portions of the Northwest. While thunderstorms
will be a mix of wet/dry, given a highly sensitive fuelscape,
lightning ignitions will remain a concern for the foreseeable
future. As such, 10% Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been
adjusted on Day 3/Thursday to overlap areas not likely to receive
plentiful rainfall in the coming days. On Day 4/Friday, 10% Dry
Thunderstorm probabilities were introduced across the
Klamath-Siskiyou region where meteorological conditions support
high-based thunderstorms within an area of receptive fuels.
Additional probabilities may be needed in future outlook cycles as
thunderstorm potential continues across the Pacific Northwest
through the weekend.
...Southern High Plains...
High pressure will elongate across the Central U.S. into the
Southeast on Day 3/Wednesday, expanding northward and eventually
centering back over the central/southern Plains late in the forecast
period. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will persist across portions
of western Oklahoma, the TX/OK Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas
where fuels are growing increasingly receptive. As such, 40%
Critical probabilities remain on Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/11/2026
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