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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 291523

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1023 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

   Valid 291700Z - 301200Z

   No changes were made to the Elevated wind/RH area in place over
   portions of the Pacific Northwest and adjoining regions as well the
   area over the southern Plains. The latest forecast guidance remains
   on track with previous outlook issuances. Surface observations as of
   late this morning indicate south-southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph in
   place over the southern Plains as the surface trough tightens the
   pressure gradient. A well-mixed boundary layer amid hot surface
   temperatures will support afternoon RHs below 20-25% across the
   highlighted area.

   Sufficient instability (CAPE near 100-500 J/kg) will support wet and
   dry thunderstorms over portions of north-central WA later this
   afternoon amid increasing dynamic lift within the left exit region
   of the jet streak ahead of the approaching trough. While moisture
   content ahead of this trough remains low (precipitable water values
   near 0.5-0.6"), much below normal temperatures today and
   accumulating rainfall likely on Day 2/Sunday where convection is
   most likely to occur this afternoon. Continued cooler than normal
   conditions and higher RHs persist through much of the coming week
   over this area as well. While a few new lightning ignitions are not
   out of the question due to dry (but moistening) fuels, they will be
   significantly moderated by the aforementioned environmental
   conditions over the next several days.

   ..Stearns.. 08/29/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   ...Southeast Oregon into northeast California and northwest
   Nevada...
   Surface winds are expected to increase ahead of a boundary on
   Saturday. Winds of 15-20 mph will be possible during the afternoon.
   Elevated fire weather is expected within a narrow zone of 15-20% RH
   that will reside between the surface boundary and richer mid-level
   moisture/clouds to the south east.

   ...Southern High Plains into south-central Kansas...
   The presence of a surface trough from the central Plains into the
   southern High Plains will allow 15-20 mph to develop by the
   afternoon. Hot temperatures underneath the upper ridge will help
   lower humidity to 20-25%. Drought-stressed fuels will support an
   elevated fire weather threat despite recent rainfall.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 291930

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   Only minor changes were made to the Elevated area over the southern
   Plains for Day 2/Sunday based on the latest forecast guidance and
   fuel dryness trends. Overall, the forecast remains on track as was
   previously mentioned. 

   The eastern half of the Snake River Plain in southeastern ID will
   experience elevated wind/RH criteria due to increased westerly
   winds. However, sub-critical fuels due to recent precipitation and
   below normal temperatures will preclude any highlights over that
   region. Over the Black Hills and portions of nearby northeastern WY,
   near-elevated wind/RH are likely to occur on Day 2/Sunday due to
   strong westerly winds, but will be moderated by potential light
   precipitation and sub-critical RHs. This region will remain east of
   the significant cool down ongoing across much of the western CONUS,
   allowing for fuels to continue curing in the absence of widespread
   wetting precipitation.

   ..Stearns.. 08/29/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   ...Southern High Plains into Southwest Kansas...
   The continued presence of a surface trough from the central Plains
   into the southern High Plains will allow modestly breezy/gusty winds
   (15-20 mph) to develop by the afternoon. Strong surface heating will
   promote 20-25% RH. While recent rainfall has occurred in some parts
   of the region, extreme/exceptional drought has stressed fuels such
   that fire spread remains possible. Elevated fire weather is expected
   Sunday afternoon.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 292143

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

   Valid 311200Z - 061200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A series of mid-level troughs will continue impacting the Pacific
   Northwest and neighboring areas of the western CONUS throughout the
   Extended Outlook time frame. This will leave the northwestern
   quadrant of the CONUS under periodically strong southwest to
   westerly flow into early next week. Embedded disturbances will
   continue to move through the persistent troughing and along the
   northern periphery of the flattening/displaced upper-level ridge
   centered over the southern Plains. This activity will deflect
   monsoonal moisture to the south and east, but advect onshore
   additional moisture from the eastern Pacific. The general consensus
   does favor continued well below normal temperatures across the
   western third of the CONUS much of next week along with increasing
   chances for multiple days of accumulating rainfall over a good
   portion of the Pacific Northwest.

   ...Northwest, Northern Great Basin, and Northern California...
   Dry southwest flow aloft associated with continual troughing over
   the northwest CONUS will promote at least a few more days of fire
   weather concerns into early next week. 40% Critical probabilities
   have been maintained, though the area of concern has decreased in
   areal extent on Day 3/Monday, with minor adjustments for Day
   4/Tuesday over northeastern CA, northwestern NC, and southeastern
   OR. West to southwest winds of 15-20 mph and afternoon RH of 10-20%
   will continue elevated fire weather concerns over this region. Below
   normal surface temperatures will moderate the threat slightly, but
   conditions will remain conducive to wildfire spread until a
   significant precipitation event occurs. Increasing potential for
   accumulating (widespread wetting) rainfall is introduced
   mid-next-week over much of the Pacific Northwest.

   ...Central and Eastern Wyoming...
   Continued above normal temperatures and strengthening drought
   conditions are promoting fuel curing across central WY into portions
   of western SD. These antecedent conditions will combine with
   westerly winds as trough passages continue to result in at least
   elevated wind/RH combinations over this region. Both ERCs and BIs
   will climb above their respective 90th-95th percentiles, indicating
   fuels receptivity is reaching critical levels across the region
   where not hampered by significant green up. Additional expansion in
   both time and space may be needed if strong southwesterly flow
   continues over the area as some forecast guidance indicates.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Over the southern Plains, the continued hot and dry period
   exacerbating existing drought conditions will continue. However,
   with the surface trough nudging eastward accompanying the center of
   the high, the strongest winds combined with the driest surface
   conditions will no longer coincide with the driest fuels, removing
   the need for critical wind/RH probabilities.

   ..Stearns.. 08/29/2026
      




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