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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 011627
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...NORTHEAST ARIZONA...AND EASTERN
UTAH...
...Morning Update...
Poor overnight humidity recoveries and gusty terrain-influenced
winds led to active fire behavior on several large wildfires into
the early morning hours. Across the Critical risk area, daytime high
temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday,
with RH values plummeting to less than 12% (potentially less than 5%
in some terrain-favored places). Sustained southwest winds up to 20
mph with gusts over 25 mph will continue to exacerbate the fire
environment. In addition, exceptionally dry fuels, adverse weather
conditions, and aggressive fire behavior (as seen on multiple large
fires) are categorized by two Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisories
issued across much of CO and UT, far southern WY, the AZ Strip, and
eastern NV.
A few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across far northeast
NV and northwest UT into south-central ID. Forecast soundings depict
marginal mid-level moisture and MUCAPE of 200-500 J/kg amid a dry
sub-cloud layer. While fuels are less receptive where storm
development is possible, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will continue over the West with weaker
shortwave troughs rotating through. Mid-level southwest flow of
25-40 knots is expected across the Four Corners region with a very
dry airmass remaining in place.
...Greater Four Corners Region...
Sustained southwest winds of 12-20 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph amid
minimum RH of 3-15% will develop from late morning into the evening
across the greater Four Corners region. Steep low-level lapse rates
and deep boundary layer mixing will allow for gusty winds to descend
to the surface, while cross mountain flow will also allow for
stronger downslope winds on lee slopes across the region. Continued
poor overnight RH recovery will aid in longer burn periods with 7 to
15 hours of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. The Critical
area may have more locally critical conditions rather than critical
conditions based strictly on SPC's criteria. However, given the
expected duration of the elevated/locally critical conditions,
several consecutive days of dry/windy conditions, very to record dry
fuels, and recent significant fire activity, the Critical area was
expanded.
...Western Great Basin...
Locally elevated conditions are expected across southern Nevada
extending to the eastern slopes of the southern Sierra and possibly
into central and northeast Nevada. Additionally, high-based showers
and thunderstorms are possible across portions of northeast Nevada
and northwest Utah. There is uncertainty regarding thunderstorms
developing over receptive fuels, but a storm or two developing over
areas with ERCs exceeding the 80th percentile cannot be ruled out.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 011935
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...Afternoon Update...
No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Exceptionally dry
fuels, adverse weather conditions, and aggressive fire behavior (as
seen on multiple large fires) are categorized by two Fuels and Fire
Behavior Advisories issued across much of CO and UT, far southern
WY, the AZ Strip, and eastern NV. The Elevated and Critical fire
weather risk areas currently overlap portions of these advisories. A
few high-based thundershowers may develop on Day 2/Thursday
afternoon across northeast NV, northern UT, and southeastern ID as a
shortwave trough passes over the region. Forecast soundings depict a
dry sub-cloud layer, 0.3-0.5" PWATs, and 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE. The
limiting factors for convective initiation are less than favorable
mid-level moisture and misaligned timing of the upper shortwave
trough; however, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out with any
storm that manages to develop near dry fuels. See the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will continue over the West, with southwest
mid-level flow of 20-35 knots continuing over the greater Four
Corners region. While upper-level troughing will continue, heights
will rise slightly over much of the Intermountain West. Weak lee
troughing will also continue on the High Plains.
...Greater Four Corners Region...
Another day of dry/windy conditions will develop across the greater
Four Corners region. South-southwest sustained winds of 12-20 mph
with gusts of 20-35 mph amid minimum RH of 3-15% is expected as
elevated/locally critical conditions begin by late morning and
continue into the evening. Poor RH recovery and the 6-14 hours of
elevated to critical fire weather conditions will lead to extended
burn periods again as the very to record dry fuels continue to cure.
Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms are likely across
portions of northeast Nevada and northwest Utah. However,
uncertainty remains on if thunderstorms will develop far enough
south over more receptive fuels, thus precluding introducing an
IsoDryT area for now.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 012135
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an established dry
airmass will maintain fire weather threats across the Great Basin
and Southwest through the workweek. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of
high pressure will remain across the central-eastern CONUS through
the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal temperatures.
On Day 3/Friday evening, the upper-level trough is forecast to
weaken and transition much of the northern U.S. into zonal flow,
while guidance depicts ridging will build across northern Mexico and
into the Southwest on Day 4/Saturday. This pattern will favor very
dry and locally breezy conditions across the western U.S., while
chances of precipitation may alleviate broader fire weather concerns
across the Mid-South, Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast.
...Discussion...
Southwesterly flow associated with upper-level troughing will
sustain fire weather concerns across the Greater Four Corners region
on Day 3/Friday with minimal to no overnight humidity recoveries
expected. As such, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained
where less than 15% RH and terrain induced 15-20 mph winds should
overlap exceptionally dry fuels. An upper level trough and strong
westerly flow aloft will traverse the Inland Northwest on Day
4/Saturday, while a surface low in southern Alberta will send a dry
cold front through the region. Tightening surface pressure gradients
should support gusty downslope winds and low RH across the Columbia
Basin, promoting localized fire concerns where ERCs are forecast to
approach the 80th percentile.
High pressure will slightly weaken across the eastern CONUS this
weekend with ensemble guidance depicting the ridge to amplify over
the central U.S. sometime next week. This may encourage southerly
flow aloft to commence in the Desert Southwest, conceivably bringing
our first chances at monsoonal moisture. Trends will be monitored
for dry thunderstorm potential as predictability increases and
guidance resolves the evolution of the overall synoptic pattern.
Nevertheless, until sufficient moisture arrives, a critically dry,
long-lasting airmass and hot daytime temperatures will reinforce
localized fire weather concerns throughout the Intermountain West.
While daily chances for precipitation will exist across the eastern
CONUS through next week, portions of the Piedmont and Atlantic
Coastal Plain will largely remain dry. Localized fire concerns may
emerge where occasionally gusty winds and low RH overlap dry fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/01/2026
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