|
U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 051650
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 051700Z - 061200Z
No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 06/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move over the Northwest Coast
increasing mid-level southwesterly flow across the northern Rockies
and portions of the Great Basin. A second, weaker upper low and
associated moisture will move from Northern Mexico into the southern
Plains. While flow aloft will be weak over much of the Southwest,
hot and dry conditions will support elevated fire-weather potential.
...Great Basin and Southwest...
To the immediate south of the belt of stronger mid-level flow,
stagnant mid-level heights will promote a very warm and dry air mass
across much of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. Very low
daytime RH near 10% to upper single digits are expected amid 10-15
mph terrain-driven winds. Exacerbated by poor overnight humidity
recoveries and drying fuels, these conditions will support elevated
fire weather concerns across northwest Arizona, southeastern Nevada,
and southwestern Utah through the afternoon hours.
Farther east into parts of western NM, mid-level moisture associated
with the upper low over northern Mexico will promote isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Steep
low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases will favor limited
precipitation efficiency. This could allow for some drier storms.
However, fuels over the area are less receptive owing to recent
precipitation. Still, occasional lightning starts are possible
within locally drier fuel beds.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 051952
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND SOUTHWEST...
An isolated dry thunderstorm area was added across northeastern
Colorado with this update. While some areas of the Front Range and
High Plains have received above average rainfall in May, the plains
to the northeast saw less. Recent guidance from local partners
suggests that though some green up is occurring, underlying fuel
load is sufficiently dry to carry fire. Precipitable water values
range around 0.9-1" but isolated coverage and generally fast storm
motions will likely lead to little measurable precipitation.
Elevated highlights were also expanded to cover potential for
dry/windy conditions in the afternoon.
Critical conditions are expected across much of the Great Basin into
the Southwest Saturday afternoon. No changes were made to these
outlook areas. See previous discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 06/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper trough over the Northwest is forecast to deepen and
intensify as it spread eastward into the Northern Rockies and
southern Canada Saturday. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will
move southeastward, overspreading a dry and hot air mass over much
of the western US. This will promote widespread elevated and
critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels from the Great basin
to the Southwest.
...Great Basin, Intermountain West and the Southwest...
As the upper trough over the Northwest/northern Rockies intensifies,
a belt of stronger flow will overspread the hot and dry surface
conditions across the Western US. The mid-level jet max will aid in
efficient mixing of strong winds to the surface. Sustained southwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph are anticipated. With continued poor overnight
recoveries, RH values in the single digits and low teens are
expected on a widespread basis. Sustained critical fire weather
conditions are expected across portions of eastern NV, southern UT,
and northern AZ.
Weaker flow aloft farther south and east will still promote
widespread elevated conditions with 10-20% RH and surface gusts of
15-20 mph. Potentially enhanced by local terrain across southern AZ
into the Four Corners, some potential for brief critical conditions
may develop given drying fuels and increasing burn period duration.
...ID and Northern Rockies...
Ascent from the upper trough will impinge on the western edge of
surface moisture moving westward into the higher terrain. This
ascent and diurnal heating could support isolated thunderstorm
development across southern and eastern ID. Likely high-based, these
fast-moving storms would have limited precipitation efficiency.
Isolated dry lightning strikes would be possible. Currently,
convection appears more likely farther northeast where moisture is
more robust.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 052157
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
A deepening upper-level trough will bring multiple rounds of
enhanced flow across portions of the western US from the
Intermoutain West into the Great Basin and Southwest. Multiple
periods of critical fire weather will be likely from D3/Sunday
through D6/Wednesday. Beyond the mid-week, flow aloft weakens
gradually. A few areas of locally critical conditions may persist
across the southwest D7/Thursday.
...Day 3/Sunday...
The upper-level low will advance towards the Northern Rockies, with
a trailing cold front further south and east. The strongest winds
aloft will overspread eastern UT, northern and eastern AZ, and
western CO. Expect sustained southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph to
overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5 to 15 percent,
across the Southern Rockies and Southwest. The 70 percent Critical
probability remains across southern and eastern UT, northern AZ, and
western CO. 40 percent Critical probabilities encompass the
remaining portions of southeast NV, northwest NM, and central WY
where fuels are receptive. While confidence is not yet high enough
to warrant a drawn area, a non-zero chance of mixed dry/wet
thunderstorms over northern UT will be watched with future forecast
guidance.
Strong mid-level flow will also overspread portions of southern
Idaho on D3/Sunday. A secondary 70% critical region was introduced
across the Snake River Plain. In this region, strong westerly
surface flow around 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity
reductions to around 10-15 percent and critically dry fuels.
...Day 4/Monday...
The region enters a temporary synoptic transition phase between the
departing northern Rockies trough and the next approaching Pacific
system. Broad and persistent southwesterly flow will continue across
Southwest and Great Basin. Deeply mixed profiles under clear skies
will generate localized breezy conditions with 15 to 25 mph gusts
amid relative humidity reductions to 5 to 15%. The 70% area was
maintained with this update across southern Utah into northern
Arizona with a slight expansion into western Colorado. 40% Critical
probabilities encompass the remaining portions of southeast NV,
western CO, and central WY where fuels are receptive.
...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday...
Medium-range models and ensemble guidance show strong consensus for
a secondary, potentially more intense trough digging into the
western US again by mid-week. Ahead of this feature, an amplified
pressure gradient will trigger strong south/southwest surface winds.
This will likely cause continued widespread critical fire weather
conditions across a large swath of the Great Basin and Southwest. A
70 percent Critical probability was maintained across southern UT
and northern AZ D5/Tuesday where confidence is highest. Slight
expansion of the 70% was given in western Colorado where confidence
in stronger winds has increased. A 40 percent Critical probability
also continues Tuesday and Wednesday in nearby areas including far
eastern NV and portions of central WY.
A small 40% area was introduced across northern Arizona into
southern Utah D7/Thursday. Consensus is increasing that continued
overlap of dry/windy conditions will continue into this period.
After multiple rounds of windy/dry conditions fuels in the region
will be critically dry.
..Thornton.. 06/05/2026
|
