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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 141630

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

   Valid 141700Z - 151200Z

   Some areas received wetting rains (greater than 0.10") across
   eastern WY and adjacent High Plains of NE/SD. This has temporarily
   reduced the fire weather threat for today, with a reduction made on
   the eastern extent of elevated highlights across northeastern WY
   into far western SD. Elevated fire weather conditions are still
   expected across much of central WY into far southeastern MT where
   less rainfall occurred. Meteorological conditions will reach
   Critical levels across southern WY to include sustained west winds
   of 20-30 mph and RH as low as 10%, but at least some rainfall over
   the past 24 hours and cloud cover will moderate overall fire
   environment today.

   ..Williams.. 09/14/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today as a strong jet
   streak associated with an upper-level low progresses from the
   Northern Rockies into the Northern Great Plains. Meteorological
   conditions will reach well into Critical criteria for wind and RH,
   but ongoing precipitation and a somewhat unfavorable fuelscape will
   generally temper the fire-weather concerns. Across portions of
   western North Texas into southwest Oklahoma, Elevated fire-weather
   conditions are expected as lee trough development in response to the
   aforementioned jet streak results in dry and breezy conditions. 

   ...Wyoming...
   Precipitation from high-based thunderstorm activity over critically
   receptive fuels in Wyoming early this morning will complicate
   aspects of the forecast today. However, 25-30 MPH winds and relative
   humidity of 10-15% are still expected this afternoon. While some
   areas receiving precipitation may have a reduced ignition threat,
   rainfall amounts should remain under a half inch and are not
   widespread enough to completely wet all available fuels.
   Meteorological conditions are well into Critical territory for wind,
   but the ongoing precipitation and low fuel density support
   maintaining Elevated highlights at this time. 


   ...Western North Texas into southwestern Oklahoma...
   Dry and breezy southerly flow of 15-20 MPH is expected to develop
   across much of the Southern Plains in response to lee troughing and
   surface low development. The current expectation is that afternoon
   relative humidity will reach around 25% with some localized areas
   reaching 20%. Despite the more marginal relative humidity, these
   conditions overlap with critically receptive fuels, with ERCs in the
   90th-95th annual percentile ranges, supporting an Elevated threat
   for wildfire ignition and spread.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 140623

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Dry southwesterly flow is forecast to return to the Great Basin on
   Tuesday as an upper-level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
   Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over portions of
   east-central Nevada. 


   ...East-central Nevada...
   Southwesterly to southerly winds of 15-20 MPH are forecast by
   mid-afternoon across central and eastern Nevada, while relative
   humidity is expected to be in the vicinity of 10-15%. Forecast
   guidance for fuels has ERCs reaching the 80th annual percentile as
   fuels continue to cure, supporting an Elevated fire-weather threat
   for Tuesday.

   ..Halbert.. 09/14/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132119

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0419 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough and associated mid-level jet will push into the
   Great Lakes region by D3/Tuesday while another trough enters the
   Pacific Northwest. A potential cut-off develops across the western
   U.S. bringing dry and breezy conditions southeast of the low to
   portions of the Great Basin Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday. An expansive
   ridge will persist over the southeastern CONUS into the weekend
   yielding above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions for
   much of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep
   South. However, diffuse surface pressure gradients will keep winds
   on the light side amid lingering Gulf moisture that should limit a
   more significant fire weather threat across the region.

   ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Great Basin...
   An upper-level trough/low and associated enhanced southwesterly
   mid-level winds are expected to push into the Pacific Northwest on
   D3/Tuesday before moving into the northern CA/northern Great Basin
   for midweek. The dry southwest flow should bring a fire weather
   threat to portions of central and eastern NV midweek as fuels
   continue to dry with ERCs rebounding into the 80th percentile by
   late week. 40% critical probabilities have been introduced into
   central/eastern NV for Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday.

   ...Southern Plains...
   A southerly wind on the western periphery of a surface high pressure
   over the southeastern U.S. is likely to continue each afternoon
   across portions of the Southern Plains this week. Fuels remain
   receptive across portions of the Southern Plains but alignment of
   stronger winds (greater than 15 mph) and critically low RH is not
   likely based on latest medium range ensemble guidance as somewhat
   deeper Gulf moisture persists across the region.

   ..Williams.. 09/13/2026
      




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