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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 111524
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0924 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Morning Update...
A couple hours of dry and breezy weather conditions are expected
with a passing cold front this afternoon across central North
Carolina. RH may drop as low as 25 percent with NW sustained winds
5-10 mph and gusts up to 20 mph. However, with recent rainfall and
marginal fuels, fire weather highlights will not be included.
Elsewhere, minimal fire weather conditions are expected today.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist over the central U.S. as upper troughs
traverse the East and West Coasts today, resulting in moist return
flow across the Plains as surface high pressure and cool conditions
prevail east of the Mississippi River. The lack of overlapping dry
and windy conditions across the CONUS should limit significant
wildfire-spread potential through the Day 1 period.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 110554
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist across the Plains States while a
mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and another upper trough
traverses the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Thursday). Similar to Day
1, surface high pressure and associated cooler conditions should
prevail from the Mississippi River to the East Coast, while moist
southerly flow from the Gulf continues over the Plains. As such,
another day of relatively quiescent fire weather conditions is in
store for the CONUS.
Some consideration was given to the addition of Elevated highlights
along the northeast New Mexico/northern Texas Panhandle border given
relatively dry downslope flow expected tomorrow afternoon. However,
RH has trended higher in some of the more recent guidance,
precluding fire weather highlights at this time.
..Squitieri.. 02/11/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 102131
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern is forecast to remain over the
CONUS through early next week. The combination of an enhanced area
of zonal mid-level flow over the Rockies on Day 3/Thursday coupled
with a shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains will
encourage development of a weak lee surface low. Thereafter, the
trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward, reaching the
Southern Plains Day 5/Saturday and the Southeast Day 6/Sunday.
Another substantial mid/upper-level trough is forecast to come
onshore across the Western U.S. late this weekend into early next
week.
...Southern High Plains: Day 3/Thursday...
Gusty and dry westerly downslope surface winds are expected to
develop Day 3/Thursday afternoon across portions of New Mexico into
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. At least a few hours of Elevated to
locally Critical fire weather conditions appear likely amidst
critically receptive fuels before a cold front (and associated
northerly wind shift) move through the area during the overnight.
...Rio Grande Valley and South Texas: Day 5/Saturday - Day
6/Sunday...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 5/Saturday
afternoon/evening as the aforementioned mid/upper-level trough
impinges on the area and an associated surface low strengthens over
the Southern Plains. While some uncertainties remain regarding
precipitation placement on Day 2/Wednesday and also Day 5/Saturday
and its impact on fuel status, ensemble guidance continues to
suggest a relative minimum in precipitation across portions of South
Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. A 40% probability of Critical fire
weather conditions was introduced where locally Critical conditions
currently appear most likely. Fire weather concerns may linger into
Day 6/Sunday, though confidence is currently too low to introduce
Critical probabilities.
...Southwest and the Southern/Central High Plains: Day 6/Sunday -
Day 8/Tuesday...
Fire weather conditions may increase across portions of the
Southwest Day 6/Sunday and the High Plains Day 7/Monday into early
next week as the aforementioned secondary trough (and enhanced
mid-level flow) overspread the area and a surface lee cyclone
strengthens. While fire weather highlights may eventually be needed,
increasing model spread reduces confidence which precludes
introducing Critical fire weather probabilities at this time.
..Elliott/Garcia.. 02/10/2026
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