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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 211621
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Surface observations at 16Z indicate pockets of elevated fire
weather conditions developing across southwest portions of the
Edwards Plateau in Texas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions are expected to expand in coverage through this evening
across portions of South-Central Texas southward into the Big Bend
region, where sustained surface winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH
values near 15-20% will overlap receptive fuels. While the latest
high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest near critical
fire weather conditions are possible across southwest portions of
the Edwards Plateau and the South Texas Brush Country, these
conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a Critical fire
weather area.
Please see the previous discussion below for more information,
including a discussion on the Elevated fire weather area across
southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
..Elliott.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are forecast today across
much of the Southern Great Plains, with at least Elevated
fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest Texas as well
as southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
...South-Central Texas/Big Bend...
Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are forecast
this afternoon, with relative humidity as low as 15-20% and winds of
15-20 MPH. Conditions in the western portion of the outlook area in
the vicinity of Big Bend will tend to be drier and perhaps a little
less windy (10-15 MPH), with the eastern portion in south-central
Texas being more humid and windier (15-20 MPH). A narrow corridor of
locally Critical conditions may exist within the gradient of these
conditions, where the drier air and higher wind speeds overlap with
receptive fuels. However, there was not enough confidence in a large
enough spatial and temporal overlap of these conditions to warrant
additional highlights at this time.
...Southwestern Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...
Though surface temperatures will be relatively cooler this far north
into the post-frontal airmass, daytime heating and mixing is
forecast to raise surface temperatures into the mid-to-upper 40s F.
Forecast profiles across the area are well mixed and very dry, with
surface relative humidity of around 15% and winds of 10-15 MPH.
Given the critically dry fuels across the area and recent wildfire
activity, Elevated highlights have been introduced in this outlook.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 211936
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely
beginning around midday tomorrow (Sunday) and continuing through the
overnight across portions of southern Georgia and the Florida
Peninsula, where dry/breezy post-frontal conditions overlap
receptive fuels. The primary change with this forecast update was to
expand the Elevated fire weather area further south across much of
the remainder of the Florida Peninsula. Here, the latest high
resolution ensemble guidance suggests elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions are likely from tomorrow evening into Monday
morning due to very poor overnight recoveries and lingering
breeziness. While an upgrade to Critical was considered, confidence
was a bit too low due to the potential for some light rainfall
along/ahead of the front early Sunday.
While elevated to locally critical fire weather meteorological
conditions are also likely across much of the remainder of the
Southeast in a dry and breezy post-frontal environment, wetting
rainfall today/tomorrow associated with the cold front casts
considerable uncertainty on fuel receptiveness in the immediate wake
of the front. Nevertheless, model guidance continues to suggest a
relative minimum in precipitation across portions of Louisiana and
the Mississippi Gulf Coast. With limited precipitation, Elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions appear likely in these
areas due to sustained winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH values less
than 35% overlapping receptive fuels.
An expansion of the Elevated areas and/or upgrades to Critical may
be needed across the Southeast once precipitation amounts and
locations are realized.
..Elliott.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
As a cold front moves off the Atlantic/Gulf coasts, dry and breezy
post-frontal conditions are forecast across much of the Southeast on
Sunday. Relative humidity could get as low as 25%-30% across
portions of northern Florida currently experiencing drought, with
winds reaching 15-20 MPH. These conditions will support Elevated
concerns for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon
Sunday.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 212048
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 011200Z
An active fire weather pattern is expected across portions of the
Florida Peninsula and the Southern/Central Plains through much of
the extended forecast period. For Day 3/Monday, a mid/upper-level
ridge is forecast over the Southwest with a mid/upper-level trough
over the Southeast. Thereafter, the Southwest ridge is forecast to
flatten while broad troughing (and enhanced mid-level flow) develops
across much of the CONUS. At the surface, portions of Florida will
remain in a very dry post-frontal regime Day 3/Monday while episodic
lee surface trough strengthening occurs across the Central Plains
Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday.
...Day 3/Monday: Florida Peninsula and Southern Georgia...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are probable early
Day 3/Monday morning across portions of the Florida Peninsula due to
very poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering post-frontal
breeziness. Although daytime temperatures will be relatively cool
behind the front, critical conditions appear likely across portions
of the Florida Peninsula (where 70% probabilities for Critical fire
weather conditions have been introduced) due to the combination of
low-to-extremely-low minimum RH values, strong northerly
post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels owing to ongoing drought
conditions.
...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains...
Relatively dry southerly/southwesterly return flow is forecast to
increase across the southern Plains Day 3/Monday as lee troughing
strengthens, which should promote Elevated fire weather conditions
across portions of eastern New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, and far western Oklahoma.
Fire weather conditions are forecast to become more widespread Day
4/Tuesday across the southern Plains as strong mid-level flow
remains in place and the lee surface cyclone and associated pressure
gradient strengthens further while developing southward. While
critical fire weather conditions are most likely behind the dry line
across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle where
strong downslope flow is expected, confidence is currently too low
to introduce 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions.
Additionally, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions
were expanded into portions of Oklahoma based on the latest ensemble
guidance, where a dry return flow regime is forecast.
Confidence is a bit lower Day 4/Tuesday across the Central Plains,
with ensemble guidance offering differing solutions for the
evolution of a developing surface cyclone in the lee of the Laramie
Range. While critical probabilities were not introduced with this
outlook, fire weather conditions are possible depending on the
evolution/strength of the cyclone.
Run-to-run model variability has increased somewhat for Day
5/Wednesday, with impactful differences in the strength and
positioning of the surface low through the day over the Southern
Plains. In turn, this decreases confidence in critical fire weather
highlights across the area. Nevertheless, the 40% probability for
Critical fire weather conditions was maintained as at least elevated
fire weather conditions appear likely across much of the area.
...Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday: Southern/Central Plains...
Ensemble model spread begins to increase Day 6/Thursday and into the
next weekend, which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities
beyond Day 5/Wednesday. Nonetheless, the mid/upper-level pattern
continues to favor broad troughing across the CONUS, with enhanced
mid-level flow and multiple short-wave impulses crossing the central
United States. This flow pattern coupled with ongoing drought
conditions (and little-to-no forecast rainfall) suggest fire weather
conditions will likely linger across portions of the plains through
at least Day 8/Saturday.
..Elliott.. 02/21/2026
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