ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241823

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING
   INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...

   The Elevated area was expanded southeastward to include much of
   central Nebraska and northwest Kansas where the latest forecast
   guidance has been trending drier (15-25%) and windier
   (west-northwest 10-20 mph). Given the exceptionally dry fuels over
   the region with existing large fires on the landscape, even
   marginally elevated conditions will be of concern over this portion
   of the central Plains. An additional Elevated area was added over
   extreme eastern New Mexico through much of the Texas Panhandle. Warm
   and dry air will mix to the east across western Texas during the
   afternoon hours on Day 2/Wednesday, before receding to the west
   again as solar radiation decreases, allowing overnight RHs to
   recover. Thus, a few hours of elevated conditions are expected due
   to southerly winds of 10-20 mph, afternoon RHs of 10-20%, and
   antecedent very dry fuel conditions over much of the southern
   Plains.

   ..Stearns.. 03/24/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Modest upper-level ridge breakdown is expected to occur in the
   northern Rockies on Wednesday. This will promote a deeper lee
   trough/cyclone in the central/northern Plains. A cold front will
   begin to accelerate southward in the northern Plains by Thursday
   morning.

   ...Northern Rockies into central High Plains...
   Stronger mid-level winds will overspread these areas, along with a
   deepening cyclone to the east, will promote 20-25 mph winds across
   much of Wyoming. There is at least some uncertainty as to how low RH
   will fall on account of upper-level clouds. Still, RH of around 15%
   does appear probable, particularly in Wyoming. Strong winds will
   also occur in southern/southwest Montana, though RH will likely be
   15-25%. Drier conditions (10-20% RH) are more likely in the High
   Plains, though winds near the surface trough will be weaker (around
   15 mph). Critical conditions are expected over much of Wyoming
   whereas elevated conditions are more probable to the west and east.

   ...Central Rockies...
   Minor shortwave perturbations within the westerly flow aloft could
   promote isolated thunderstorm development in the central Rockies.
   These storms would be quite high based. While an isolated lightning
   flash without precipitation is possible, forecast soundings suggest
   that lightning production will be quite inefficient on account of
   limited mixed-phase potential.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 232123

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0423 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

   Daily high temperature records over much of the southern two-thirds
   of the western US will continue to be broken during Day 1/Monday and
   Day 2/Tuesday. On Day 3/Wednesday, a potent upper-level trough
   approaches the Pacific Northwest and will significantly dampen the
   amplitude of the existing ridge as it moves across the northern
   CONUS border on Day 4/Thursday. The jet max will exit the Eastern
   Seaboard on Day 5/Friday. The western US upper-level ridge is poised
   to build back next weekend. Forecast guidance suggests that this
   ridge will be nudged eastward by a robust trough moving across the
   northern Pacific, but the timing and speed of the parent trough is
   uncertain at this point. The latest forecast guidance does suggest
   that a shortwave could move through the flow around Day 8/Monday. If
   this does come to fruition, it could provide some precipitation
   across portions of the Intermountain West starting on Day 7/Sunday.

   On Day 3/Wednesday, as the ridge over the western US breaks down,
   warm surface temperatures will support a deep boundary layer, mixing
   strong westerly winds associated with the passing upper-level jet to
   the surface. Forecast guidance indicates sustained west winds of
   20-30 mph will combine with RHs of 10-20% at the surface for several
   hours during the afternoon. This warrants a 70% area for much of
   east-central Wyoming while 40% probabilities cover portions of
   northern Colorado, extreme northeast Utah, eastern Idaho, southern
   Montana, southwest South Dakota, and western Nebraska where surface
   winds will be slightly weaker and/or RHs slightly higher. A very
   small potential for a thunderstorm or two will be possible over the
   western slopes of Colorado during peak heating. If convection does
   initiate, very little precipitation will be realized at the ground
   level.

   On Day 4/Thursday, a cold front, supported by the aforementioned
   passing upper-level trough, is expected to surge south across the
   central and southern Plains. A 70% probability was added over the
   area of greatest certainty covering much of the Oklahoma and Texas
   Panhandles and portions of east-central New Mexico. The 40%
   probability area was expanded slightly east due to forecast guidance
   advecting drier conditions farther across the southern Plains while
   the western extent was expanded to include extreme eastern Arizona
   and across much of New Mexico. Uncertainty in the timing and
   evolution of this front will likely necessitate adjustments to the
   risk area.

   On Day 6/Saturday, northerly winds behind the cold front passing
   through the Southeast CONUS late on Day 5/Friday will likely produce
   downslope flow, contributing to lower RHs and gusty surface winds
   once again. However, precipitation between now and then is likely
   across portions of the area. Where rainfall may accumulate will
   likely dictate the extent of any fire weather concerns over this
   region. Thus, the drawn 40% area is likely to evolve over the coming
   days as this precipitation influences fuels receptivity to ignition
   over this region. Additionally, a 40% area was drawn over a good
   portion of the central Plains for Day 6/Saturday. The surface
   pressure gradient will tighten across this area as a result of a
   surface high located over the mid-Mississippi River Valley and a
   strengthening surface low over Wyoming, resulting in strong
   southerly winds from Kansas to South Dakota.

   ..Stearns.. 03/23/2026