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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071632
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
...Morning Update...
A deep, dry airmass aloft was depicted in the 12z TBW sounding.
Clear skies across the FL Peninsula are promoting rising
temperatures and ample boundary layer mixing. Current surface
observations portray sporadic wind gusts of 15-20 mph along the FL
First Coast and sustained winds increasing to 10 mph. Relative
humidity will quickly decline this afternoon as maximum temperatures
approach the low-mid 90s F where 95-98th percentile ERCs exist,
supportive of an Elevated fire weather threat. See the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and attendant strong mid-level southwesterly
flow will progress eastward into the eastern CONUS today. A related
cold front and associated rainfall will near the Southeast Coast by
this afternoon. Elevated west to southwest winds south of the
advancing front amid low relative humidity and dry fuels will bring
a fire weather threat to portions of FL today. An upper ridge
building over the western U.S. will promote warm and dry conditions
across the region today.
...Florida Peninsula...
West to southwest winds of around 10 mph with higher gusts across
northern FL will evolve within a tightening pressure gradient
manifested by an advancing cold front to the north. Near record high
surface temperatures within a dry and well-mixed boundary layer
reaching the lower to middle 90s F, will promote afternoon RH of
25-35% across inland and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula.
Numerous active wildfires are present across northern FL amid a very
dry and drought stressed fuelscape. The dry conditions combined with
an emerging steady west to southwest wind late morning through the
afternoon will support an Elevated fire weather threat in portions
of northeastern and east-central FL Peninsula.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 071843
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Afternoon Update...
No changes were made to the Elevated risk area. Across northeastern
MT and western ND, recent guidance depicts increasing mid-high level
cloud cover ahead of a more accelerated cold front arrival. Spotty
showers on Day 1/Thursday and expected good overnight recoveries
into Day 2/Friday will provide some fuel relief ahead of emerging
afternoon westerly winds of 15-20 mph. Model soundings portray
increasing mid-level moisture throughout the afternoon, promoting
expanding cloud cover thus limiting greater afternoon mixing.
However, RH may still fall to less than 25 percent atop
exceptionally dry fuels within the Elevated risk area, maintaining
current highlights. The aforementioned cold front is expected to
pass through northeastern MT and northwestern ND during the evening,
shifting winds from northwest to northeasterly and increasing RH.
Across eastern ND, western MN, and central-eastern SD, a brief
overlap of 25-30 percent RH and sustained winds of 15 mph may
promote locally elevated fire weather concerns where very dry fuels
exist. However, duration of these conditions and increasing cloud
cover precludes the expansion of highlights at this time.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough shifts off the Eastern Seaboard into the
Atlantic today as a trailing, lower amplitude upper wave enters the
Midwest and Central Plains. At the surface, showers and thunderstorm
development near a stationary frontal boundary will extend eastward
from Texas along the northern Gulf Coast and FL Panhandle, bringing
some relief to portions of northern FL. Warm and dry conditions
under a building ridge across the western U.S. will manifest largely
as a fuel curing/drying event west of the Continental Divide.
...Northern Plains...
Broad northwest flow aloft will encompass much of the central and
northern Plains Friday, with troughing across the eastern U.S. and a
building ridge over the Intermountain West. Lack of significant
rainfall over portions of ND and eastern MT has allowed more
receptive fuels to emerge over the last few weeks. West/northwest
winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity falling close to 20% will
combine with increasingly dry fuels to promote an elevated fire
weather concern for portions of the northern Plains. Elevated
Highlights were introduced across far northeastern MT into western
ND to account for this fire weather threat. A temporary improvement
in fire weather conditions is expected late Friday and Friday night
as a cold front shifts south from Saskatchewan. A few showers and
initially high based thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and
evening, but widespread wetting precipitation unlikely.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 072100
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
Upper troughing will extend along the eastern U.S. and persist
through early next week as an upper-level low over eastern Canada
remains anchored. This pattern will encourage unsettled weather and
repeated chances for precipitation across portions of the Southeast
to the Mid-Atlantic. Given a widespread transition to green-up and
expected appreciable moisture return, broader fire weather concerns
may temporarily be dampened for much of the eastern U.S. through the
duration of the forecast period.
An upper ridge will prevail across the western U.S., potentially
shifting into the central U.S. by mid-week. The overall pattern may
result in a fuel drying/curing event, given above normal
temperatures and dry conditions to persist for much of the
Intermountain West. However, timely green-up phase of fuels and
lighter winds should keep broader concerns low. Localized fire
weather concerns may emerge in terrain-favored areas where stronger
winds overlap dry fuels.
Between western U.S. ridging and troughing to the east, broad
northwesterly flow over the High Plains and Upper Midwest is
expected to promote sporadic dry and windy conditions atop drying
fuels. A series of shortwaves are forecast to move along the eastern
periphery of the upper ridge on Day 3/Saturday and Day 5/Monday,
providing scattered chances of precipitation and gusty winds.
Conversely, widespread appreciable precipitation is unlikely.
Uncertainty in medium-range guidance precludes critical
probabilities at this time; however, fire weather potential should
become more evident in future outlooks.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/07/2026
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