ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 301912

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST
   UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

   The Critical fire weather risk area was slightly expanded based on
   recent guidance. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See the
   previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/30/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad upper-level troughing will continue over the West with
   multiple shortwave troughs rotating through the flow. While flow
   weakens aloft, deep well-mixed boundary layers will develop as
   stronger winds aloft will mix to the surface again bringing another
   day of dry and windy conditions to the greater Four Corners region. 

   ...Greater Four Corners Region...
   Critical fire weather conditions are expected again across northeast
   Arizona, southeast Utah, western Colorado, and northwest New Mexico.
   South-southwest sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of
   3-10% will develop by the afternoon and continue into the evening.
   Some forecast guidance suggests that the Critical area may have more
   locally critical conditions. However, swaths of HREF 50%+
   probabilities of critical winds/RH along with nearly a week of
   dry/windy conditions for this region, and the active large wildfires
   across the region justify a Critical area. Additionally, the drier
   and windier forecast guidance has been more accurate and reliable
   for this region recently. Locally elevated fire weather conditions
   are expected from the eastern slopes of the southern Sierra across
   the southern Great Basin. South-southwest winds of 10-20 mph amid
   minimum RH of 8-20% are likely across this area.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 292137

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0437 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

   Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an established dry
   airmass will maintain fire weather threats across the Great Basin
   and Southwest through the work-week. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of
   high pressure will continue to build across the central-eastern
   CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal
   temperatures with mostly dry conditions. Beyond Day 5/Friday,
   extended guidance hints at the potential for a pattern change. The
   upper-level trough is forecast to lift into the northern Plains,
   while ensembles depict ridging may build across northern Mexico and
   into the Southwest this weekend. This could potentially allow some
   monsoonal moisture to advect northward; however, varying model
   trends lend to lower predictability in the overall pattern
   evolution.

   ...Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday...
   Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
   troughing will sustain fire weather concerns across the Southwest,
   Great Basin, and CO Rockies. As such, 40% probabilities were
   introduced on Day 3/Wednesday while probabilities were maintained on
   Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential on Day
   2/Tuesday could result in lightning holdovers across north-central
   NM and south-central CO, which may emerge as a result of consecutive
   days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026