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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 041650
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Southern California...
A pronounced offshore pressure gradient continues to promote
east-northeast winds of 15-20 mph (25-35 mph with higher gusts in
favorable terrain corridors) amid relative humidity in the 10-20%
range. Despite the dry and breezy conditions amid near record
warmth, fuels remain largely unreceptive, mitigating a larger fire
weather threat across Southern CA today.
...Northern Florida...
A surface low over GA will promote a subtle southwesterly flow over
much of FL today. A residual dry air mass across northern FL will
result in minimum relative humidity of 25-30% across the area.
However, higher sustained winds of 10-15 mph are expected to be
offset to the west of the drier conditions over northeastern FL,
mitigating a broader fire weather concern. Beneficial rainfall from
the surface low and trailing cold front are expected this evening
across northern FL, temporarily alleviating fire weather concerns.
..Williams.. 02/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper-level pattern with a ridge in the West and a
trough in the East will evolve through the day today. A cold front
will move off the Southeast coast and into the Florida Peninsula.
Elsewhere, surface high pressure will be quite expansive across the
CONUS.
...Southern Plains...
Modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected from West Texas into
parts of Central/South Texas. Winds will not be overly strong as
around 15 mph (locally near 20 mph) can be expected. RH will also be
marginally dry (25-30%). Given limited fuel receptiveness and these
marginal conditions, only locally elevated concerns are anticipated.
...Southern California...
15-20 mph winds (up to 30-40 mph in the terrain) will be possible
during the morning and part of the afternoon. RH of 10-20% will be
possible. Despite these otherwise favorable fire weather conditions,
area fuels remain moist enough to mitigate greater fire weather
concerns.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 040722
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge will shift more into the Plains on Thursday.
This will lead to warmer temperatures within the High Plains region.
Some modestly dry north/northwest winds will occur over the High
Plains and adjacent areas. However, winds of around 15 mph along
with marginally lowered RH in most locations does not suggest more
than a localized fire weather threat.
..Wendt.. 02/04/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 032156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
The mid-level flow pattern over the US is forecast to transition
from highly amplified to predominantly zonal over the next several
days. Eastern US troughing will persist through the remainder of
this week and into the weekend. Thereafter weakening western ridging
will shift eastward allowing stronger westerly flow and weak
toughing to develop over the western US. As the pattern transitions,
cool and dry conditions over the eastern half of the US should warm
as high pressure develops across the east. Fire-weather concerns are
possible over parts of FL and the Southeast initially with dry and
breezy post-frontal conditions. However, fire-weather concerns are
more uncertain into next week.
...Southeast and FL...
Dry and breezy offshore winds are expected over parts of FL and the
Southeast late this week and into the weekend. Upper troughing will
deepen before moving offshore allowing a strong cold front to move
south D3/Thursday. Behind this front, dry continental air and cooler
temperatures may allow for occasional overlap of RH below 40% and
winds of 10-15 mph. However area fuels remain only modestly
receptive and fire-weather concerns are likely to remain localized
through D5/Saturday.
...Southwest and Southern Plains...
As the flow pattern transitions to more zonal flow later next week,
the rerun of west/westerly flow aloft will support some lee
cyclogenesis and strong surface winds over the Southwest and Plains.
This could support some increase in fire-weather potential given
recent dryness. However, precipitation and generally limited fuels
cast significant uncertainty through the remainder of the extended
forecast period.
..Lyons.. 02/03/2026
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