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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 020550
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Southwesterly flow will spread across much of the Intermountain West
today ahead of an approaching mid-level trough near the Pacific
Northwest and an associated shortwave moving through the northern
Great Basin. Ahead of the impending cloudy and cooler conditions
anticipated to impact those regions, an area of warm and dry air
will impact the Southwest to northern High Plains. However, recent
rainfall and therefore less dry fuels over much of the Southwest and
southern Great Basin will preclude any highlights over those
regions. Meanwhile, critically dry fuels due to ongoing drought from
recent drier and warmer than normal conditions are in place over
portions of far western SD through central and southwestern MT. Over
this area, southwesterly surface winds are expected to reach speeds
of 15-20 mph amid low RHs of 15-20%. An area of particularly strong
wind (near 20 mph) and dry RHs (near 10-15%) could promote brief
localized critical fire weather conditions generally over portions
of central/northeast WY. Though not anticipated to alter fuels
receptivity, light rainfall associated with convection is possible
over far northwestern (central MT) and far southeastern (southern
WY) extents of the drawn Elevated fire weather risk area today.
..Stearns.. 09/02/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 020552
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
A corridor of dry southwesterly flow between the mid-level trough
over the Northwest and the central US ridge will continue to present
a fire weather threat to MT/WY and portions of the Great Basin on
Day 2/Thursday. Fire weather concerns remain farther northeast along
the axis of dry southwest flow across central WY where an Elevated
risk area has been introduced. The threat is similar in time and
space to the preceding Day 1/Wednesday Elevated risk. Southwesterly
flow amid lee surface troughing, though slightly less strong of a
surface pressure gradient versus Day 1/Wednesday, will still support
surface winds of 15-20 mph coincident with daytime RHs of 10-20%.
Similarly, southwest winds of 15-25 mph amid low daytime RH are
likely across southeastern NV into southwestern UT on the afternoon
of Day 2/Thursday. However, marginal fuels that have developed after
preceding days of rain should help tame impacts of an otherwise
critical fire weather event across the region. A localized elevated
fire weather threat may be possible where pockets of relatively dry
fuels linger.
..Stearns.. 09/02/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 012151
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
A large, upper-level trough will dominate weather across much of the
northwestern CONUS through early next week. Cooler temperatures,
cloud cover and rainfall should reduce fire weather concerns through
early next week over much of the Pacific Northwest, northern CA and
Northern Rockies. A swath of persistent dry, southwesterly flow
ahead of this trough stretching from southern NV to the northern
High Plains will likely present some level of fire weather threat to
the Great Basin on Day 3/Thursday and northeastern WY/adjacent
northern High Plains Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday. An upper-level ridge
over the central U.S. will keep much of the Great Plains under
anomalously warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the
end of the week. Low-level flow trajectories will limit lower
daytime RH to the high plains areas as gulf moisture streams
northward into the southern/central Great Plains.
...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday...
A corridor of dry southwesterly flow between the upper trough over
the Northwest and central U.S. ridge will present a fire weather
threat to portions of the Great Basin and WY on Day 3/Thursday.
Southwest winds of 15-25 mph amid low daytime RH are likely across
southeastern NV into southwestern UT Thursday afternoon. However,
marginal fuels that have developed after preceding days of rain
should help tame impacts of an otherwise critical fire weather event
across the area. A localized elevated fire weather threat is
possible where pockets of drier fuels linger. Fire weather concerns
remain farther northeast along the axis of dry southwest flow across
central WY where a 40% critical area persists.
A surface low develops across eastern MT Day 4/Friday amid
increasing mid-level southwest winds. Dry and breezy conditions
south of this feature will promote fire weather concerns across
northeastern WY, and portions of the northern High Plains where
corresponding receptive fuels align. 40% critical probabilities were
extended northward into far southeastern MT and adjacent SD/ND to
message this fire weather threat.
...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...
Predictability wanes over the weekend with a potential for deeper
moisture from tropical cyclone activity in the northeast Pacific
encroaching into Southern CA and the Southwest as early as Day
5/Saturday. However, uncertainty looms in northward extent and
magnitude of this moisture plume past the weekend. Larger scale
troughing across the northwestern U.S. should subdue fire weather
concerns for the region bringing reinforcing cloud cover, cool
temperatures and potential rainfall.
..Williams.. 09/01/2026
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