ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 101638

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1138 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

   Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

   Northern portions of the Isolated Dry Thunder area were nudged
   eastward and trimmed slightly in agreement with the latest
   observations and forecast guidance showing less convective
   initiation along northwest portions of the previous Day 1/Tuesday
   Outlook. Expansion of the Isolated Dry Thunder area was considered
   farther to the southwest into the Trans Pecos as well, but showery
   precipitation appeared favored over extreme southwest Texas and very
   little if any storm coverage near the Big Bend area.

   Similarly, the Elevated area was also expanded slightly to the east
   to account for the anticipated surge of the dryline through much of
   the Texas Panhandle during peak heating this afternoon. Portions of
   the central Texas Panhandle will see stronger and drier southwest
   winds leading to some locally critical conditions. However,
   conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant a
   critical area being drawn. Portions of the Front Range will see
   locally Elevated fire weather conditions as well but the areal
   extent remains limited. A strong cold front will push through the
   central and into the southern High Plains late tonight with strong
   winds but higher RHs and cooler temperatures.

   ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the
   southern Plains as a second upper trough moves over the northern
   Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, a lee cyclone will
   intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a
   trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of
   the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread
   showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind
   the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some
   fire-weather potential. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible
   where lightning may interact with dry fuels over the southern High
   Plains.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   As the upper low ejects eastward, the initial surface cyclone will
   move away to the northeast along the front. A secondary lee low will
   deepen over KS/OK at the apex of the dryline. This, along with
   strong flow aloft, will support gusty southwest winds across much of
   the southern High Plains. While humidity is unlikely to be overly
   low owing to cloud cover and mid-level moisture from the cold core
   upper low over NM, pockets of strong heating and downslope flow west
   of the dryline will support 20-30% RH values amid westerly wind of
   20-30 mph. Elevated and brief critical fire-weather conditions are
   likely from the Rio Grande Valley northward across much of West TX
   and far eastern NM despite the modest RH minimums. Confidence in
   brief critical conditions is highest across the TX Big Bend region
   and the southern TX Panhandle where locally higher winds and lower
   RH may briefly overlap this afternoon.

   Thunderstorm development is probable this afternoon across much of
   the southern Plains along the dryline and beneath the upper low over
   parts of central NM. Precipitable water values, indicative of
   moisture above a dry sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an
   inch and are not expected to support efficient rainfall accumulation
   given storm motions of 30-40 knots. While confidence in storms is
   relatively high, the exact coverage, and dryline position remain
   uncertain. The IsoDryT area was expanded slightly to the
   west/southwest to account for additional convection on the periphery
   of the upper low. Additional changes are likely in the day1 update
   as dryline placement and thunderstorm coverage/location details
   become clearer.