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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 141451
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 01/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the eastern half of the US will rapidly
intensify today and tonight as it merges with a weak upper low over
the southern US. Strong northerly flow aloft will develop as a
surface old front moves southward over the Plains and central US.
Behind the front, strong north/northwesterly winds are likely over
parts of the Plains and eventually the Southeast. This, and
persistent dry conditions may support some elevated fire-weather
potential.
...Central TX...
As strong troughing deepens over the eastern US, a dry cold front
will sweep into the Southern Plains and south TX. Along and behind
the front, a strong surface pressure gradient will drive north winds
of 20-30 mph over much of the southern and central Plains. Although
RH reductions will be limited to around 30% with cooler temperatures
advecting southward, the strong winds and dry fine fuels should
still support an elevated fire risk across central TX.
Surface winds will slacken some with southward extent as the primary
front arrives later in the diurnal cycle across the Rio Grande
Valley and South TX. Drier surface conditions will likely support
afternoon RH minimums near 20-25%. While the arrival of the stronger
northerly winds will be ill timed, the lower RH and drier fuels
should also support some fire-weather risk into South TX through the
afternoon and first part of the evening. The Elevated area was
expanded to the southern border for a conditional risk for Elevated
conditions.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 141839
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
Minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast given the latest
model guidance and fuel information. The forecast reasoning
otherwise remains valid. See the previous discussion for additional
information.
..Wendt.. 01/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
As the initial upper trough over the East moves offshore, flow aloft
will turn more northwesterly ahead of a second potent upper trough
moving south out of Canada. A strong jet streak and reinforcing cold
front will approach from the north bolstering strong surface winds.
With dry conditions already in place, the strong winds will likely
support increasing fire-weather potential Thursday.
...Central and southern High Plains...
Ahead of the second shortwave, lee troughing will promote stronger
westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the central High
Plains Thursday. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior cold
front, bolstered by downsloping, afternoon RH values of 15-20% are
expected. Surface winds of 20-30 mph overlapped with the low
humidity will likely favor sustained elevated fire-weather
conditions for several hours given very dry fine fuels over parts of
Northeast CO, western NE and northwestern KS.
A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also
possible across the region Thursday afternoon. While the strongest
gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity,
and some light precipitation is also expected D1/Wednesday
potentially briefly limiting the driest fuels. Still with strong
gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range and fuels abnormally
dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther south, a similar, albeit slightly weaker, northwesterly flow
regime is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle and eastern NM.
Lee troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH
below 20%. With dry fuels in place, several hours of enhanced
fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts of the southern
Plains Thursday afternoon.
...Southeast...
Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the
wake of the strong frontal passage. While afternoon RH values will
likely be below 25%, much cooler surface temperatures and light
precipitation are also expected. This should mitigate fire-weather
concerns to some degree, though localized elevated conditions are
possible given the dry state of areas fuels and the overlap with
breezy offshore winds.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132117
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level troughing pattern across the eastern U.S.
will invite largely cooler, more stable conditions across the
region. Primary fire-effective weather concerns continue to be
impacts from frontal passages through the weekend across the central
and southern Plains where precipitation is unlikely and dry fuels
remain. The Southeast is also susceptible to dry, post frontal winds
but preceding precipitation on Day 2/Wednesday could mitigate a
larger fire weather threat.
...Day 3/Thursday...
Broad northwesterly flow aloft should contribute to a strengthening
lee surface trough across the northern and central Plains on Day
3/Thursday. Dry, downsloping flow from the west-southwest is likely
to develop across the southern High Plains, aligning with
receptive/dormant fine fuels to enhance fire risk. Farther north, an
advancing cold front within a broad northwesterly flow regime should
support strong northwest winds across portions of the central Plains
Thursday. Some precipitation is anticipated through the early Day
2/Wednesday period but probabilities of significant amounts appear
low. Dry conditions and onset of stronger northwest surface winds
returning rapidly Thursday, supporting an enhanced fire weather
concern where pockets drier fuels overlap. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced for portions of northeast CO into
northwest KS. Dry, post-frontal northwest flow (with enhanced
downslope drying in the lee of the Appalachians) should envelope
much of the Piedmont region Thursday. However, colder temperatures
and preceding rainfall, albeit light, could largely mitigate the
fire weather threat.
...Day 4/Friday...
Fire weather concerns increase across the Southern Plains on Day
4/Friday as a cold front quickly translates southward into the
region ahead of a pronounced upper-level short wave over the
Midwest. A drier, continental-polar air mass behind the front will
support lower surface dew points and daytime relative humidity
across the central and southern Plains Day 4/Friday. The most likely
area for alignment of gusty winds and driest conditions remains
across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK where 40%
probabilities were introduced, while colder temperatures and cloud
cover could somewhat mitigate the fire weather threat farther north
in the central Plains.
...Day 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...
Larger scale pattern of ridging across the West and complimentary
troughing in the eastern U.S. is likely to hold through early next
week. Fire weather predictability challenges arise by the weekend
with increased uncertainty in timing of frontal features east of the
Continental Divide. However, the Southern Plains and Southeast
remain susceptible to these events given dry fuels and minimal
expected rainfall.
..Williams.. 01/13/2026
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