ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280807

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level ridging is forecast to continue building over the
   Southwest D2/Sunday ahead of a shortwave trough over the West Coast.
   Modest westerly flow aloft may support some breezy downslope winds
   in parts of NM and TX ahead of a southward moving cold front.
   Widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, though locally
   dry and breezy conditions are possible.

   ...Eastern New Mexico into Far West TX...
   With sub-tropical ridging forecast to build steadily over the
   Southwest D2/Sunday, winds aloft are forecast to remain modest over
   parts of the southern High Plains. However, very warm temperatures,
   and high pressure to the west will favor some locally breezy surface
   winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into far west TX. Warm
   temperatures will support RH of 15-20% during the afternoon. While
   the modest surface winds will preclude broader concerns, the dry
   conditions and locally breezy winds during the afternoon could
   support some localized fire-weather conditions amid dry fuels
   D2/Sunday afternoon.

   ..Lyons.. 02/28/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272152

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

   Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

   Zonal flow aloft evolves in the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday as surface
   troughing pushes cooler air into the central US. Depending on the
   extent of the arctic airmass, moisture advection via southerly flow
   along the TX Gulf Coast into the southern High Plains may be
   limited. Increasing heights and northwesterly flow aloft will
   promote warm, dry air across the Southwest. RH values of 10-15%
   combined with westerly surface winds of 10-20 mph atop dry fuels may
   generate locally elevated fire weather conditions in eastern New
   Mexico on Day 3/Sunday.

   Through early next week, broad southwesterly flow aloft in the
   Southwest and southern High Plains will evolve as a trough is
   forecast to move east across CONUS. Enhanced southerly surface flow
   may bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains region, though the
   extent of moisture advection is uncertain. Significant spread exists
   in the timing of upper trough ejection and development of a lee
   surface low. Despite model and ensemble uncertainties in the overlap
   of strong winds and low RH in the Southwest (and to some extent,
   parts of the southern High Plains), elevated fire weather conditions
   are likely to emerge Day 4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. 

   Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday, a large upper-level trough is
   forecast to dig into the Desert Southwest. Notable variance exists
   in long-term model solutions in the strength and/or evolution. The
   synoptic pattern could suggest the potential for fire weather
   conditions, though given the overall uncertainty in the upper-level
   pattern evolution, probabilities have been withheld for now.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Wendt.. 02/27/2026