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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 251613

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1013 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

   Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS...

   ...Morning Update...
   No changes were made to the previous forecast. Ample high cloud
   cover is visible on satellite imagery across eastern NM and west TX,
   likely to persist through the afternoon. Westerly wind gusts of
   25-35 mph have already been observed this morning in southeastern NM
   with RH values hovering at and below 20%. Increasing sustained
   downslope winds of 20-30 mph and RH below 20% atop a dry fuelscape
   will support Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for
   this area. In the CO Front Range, cross-terrain surface pressure
   gradients beneath an incoming 40-60 kt 700 mb jet will support gusty
   downslope winds through the Central High Plains. In
   central-southeastern CO, RH of 20-25% will be slightly displaced
   from the strongest sustained surface winds to the north, though
   local terrain-driven wind tunneling may generate isolated areas of
   higher winds, so locally critical fire weather conditions may be
   possible given receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for more
   information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   ...Central/southern High Plains...
   Moderately strong northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across
   the central and southern Rockies today with lee troughing in place
   across much of the central and southern High Plains. The cross
   terrain surface pressure gradient will support dry, downslope winds
   of 20-30 mph across portions of east-central and southeast New
   Mexico this afternoon. A plume of mid-level moisture will nose into
   the area through the day, fostering some high-level cloud cover and
   a modest increase in surface dewpoints. Given this, guidance is not
   overly confident in RH dropping below 15% for more than a brief
   period. However, the increased winds overlapping a dry fuelscape
   will still support a period of Critical fire weather conditions
   during the afternoon. 

   RH values of around 20% with surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected
   elsewhere across the central/southern High Plains, but locally
   higher winds are possible within terrain-favored locations.

   ...Edwards Plateau into South-Central Texas...
   A modest surface low will gradually progress southeastward across
   portions of central Texas today. Winds of 15-20 mph will be possible
   to the south and west of this feature. Coupled with expected RH
   values of 15-20%, this will support Elevated fire weather conditions
   this afternoon.

   ...Northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northwestern
   Kansas...
   Strong northwesterly flow across the central Rockies will align with
   a favorable cross-terrain surface pressure gradient to support a
   strong downslope wind event across portions of the central High
   Plains. Sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected along with
   the potential for gusts up to 45-55 mph. While RH values are
   forecast to remain marginal (20-25%), the strong downslope winds
   will overlap with receptive fuels to support Elevated fire weather
   conditions this afternoon.

   Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible farther north
   into portions of southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle;
   however, such conditions are expected to be brief given anticipated
   RH increases behind an advancing surface cold front.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 251906

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...20z Update...
   Elevated fire weather highlights have been maintained for areas east
   of the Rockies into the Central High Plains and parts of
   South-Central Texas. In Texas, a weak, dry cold front will decrease
   surface RH values between 10-20% and increase sustained
   northwesterly surface winds to 15-20 mph (locally higher gusts up to
   30 mph possible). With dry conditions on Day 1/Wednesday and poor
   overnight humidity recovery, finer fuels will likely be receptive to
   fire. In the Central High Plains, low RH values of 10-20% and
   northwesterly downslope surface winds of 15-25 mph atop a dry
   fuelscape will support Elevated fire weather conditions in the
   afternoon.

   In central-southeastern Montana, a tight lee surface pressure
   gradient beneath modest mid-level northwesterly flow may support a
   few hours of strong downslope winds. Given light precipitation on
   Day 1/Wednesday and forecast RH values between 20-30% at peak
   heating, Elevated highlights have been withheld. See the previous
   discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0235 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   ...Portions South-Central Texas...
   A modest surface low pressure center will shift southward across
   central and southern Texas on Thursday, with a weak, dry cold front
   bringing dry and breezy northerly surface winds to portions of
   south-central Texas. Warm/dry conditions on Wednesday will aid in
   the drying of finer fuels, thus sustained winds of 15-20 mph
   overlapping RH values of 15-20% are expected to support Elevated
   fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon.

   ...Portions of the Central and Southern High Plains...
   Strengthening high pressure across the Wyoming Basin and
   northwestern Colorado will support a strong cross-terrain pressure
   gradient across the central Rockies underneath modest northwesterly
   mid-level flow. This will favor strong downslope winds of 15-25 mph
   (locally higher in terrain-favored areas) and RH values of 15-20%
   downstream of the Laramie Mountains and Central Rockies. With
   receptive fuels in place across the region, Elevated fire weather
   highlights have been added for portions of the central and southern
   High Plains.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 252153

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

   Valid 271200Z - 051200Z

   ...Synopsis..
   Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through the weekend
   before an upper-level pattern change early next week. The current
   pattern will prevail through Day 5/Sunday, aiding in continued
   Elevated fire weather conditions in the Central and Southern Plains.
   Day 6/Monday - Day 8/Wednesday, a transition to southwesterly flow
   aloft in the Southwest and Southern Plains will evolve as a closed
   low develops off the West Coast. Surface troughing and enhanced
   southerly surface flow may bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains
   region, limiting broader fire weather concerns in the extended
   forecast period.

   ...Day 3/Friday - Southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle
   and northeastern Colorado...
   Strong mid-level flow and a coincident 700mb 40-50 kt jet may
   support strong downslope winds and low RH in the lee of the Laramie
   Range into the Central High Plains on Day 3/Friday. As the surface
   trough strengthens across the northern High Plains, a tight pressure
   gradient east of the Rockies will enhance westerly surface winds of
   25-35 mph (gusts up to 50 mph near the Laramie Range) and decreased
   RH values of 15-20% at peak heating. With multiple days of strong,
   dry downslope winds preceding Day 3/Friday, fuels are likely to be
   receptive to fire. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced
   to account for this.

   On Day 4/Saturday, mid-level flow slowly shifts zonal as surface
   troughing pushes cooler air into the Central US while southerly flow
   along the TX Gulf Coast advects moisture northward into the Southern
   Plains. Dry fuels and a drought ridden landscape across the FL
   Peninsula may heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered
   thunderstorms pass through the region on Day 3/Friday and Day
   4/Saturday. Areas that do not see sufficient rainfall may have
   holdovers from potential lightning ignitions.

   Some model spread exists on Day 5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday in the
   overall extent of surface moisture return and southern expanse of
   the backdoor cold front, but there is some concern for dry and gusty
   surface winds across Eastern New Mexico ahead of the front. Given
   these uncertainties, Critical probabilities have been withheld for
   now.

   By Day 7/Tuesday and Day 8/Wednesday, the frontal boundary should
   weaken across Texas and redevelop northward allowing low-level
   moisture to advect northward into the Central Plains. Considering
   the overall resulting pattern, fire weather concerns appear fairly
   minimal and localized through the extended forecast period.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026
      




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