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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 011637
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...Eastern New Mexico and West Texas...
A subtle mid-level wave and associated enhanced mid-level flow will
advance eastward across the Southern Rockies into the Southern
Plains today. In response, weak surface lee troughing will develop
across the southern High Plains through this afternoon. A shallow
inversion in place this morning across eastern NM will quickly mix
out, with a dry and well-mixed boundary layer emerging by this
afternoon. This will support dry and breezy conditions within the
broader westerly, downslope favorable flow over east-central NM
where west winds approaching 20 mph at times and relative humidity
falling to as low as 15% will align with dry fuels. Elevated
highlights were introduced into east-central NM, with locally
elevated fire weather concerns extending southward into far west TX
in lee of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.
..Williams.. 03/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging building over the Southwest will weaken flow aloft
over the southern Rockies and High Plains through today. At the same
time, a surface cold front will continue to move south and stall
across the southern Plains States. Ahead of this front, a few hours
of dry and breezy downslope winds could support localized
fire-weather concerns over parts of eastern NM and West TX.
Otherwise, cooler temperatures and precipitation should limit
fire-weather potential.
...Eastern NM and west TX...
Sub-tropical ridging is forecast to build steadily over the
Southwest today, with westerly winds aloft remaining modest over
parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Very warm
temperatures, and surface high pressure to the west will favor some
locally breezy winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into
far west TX ahead of the sagging cold front. Warm temperatures and
the dry downslope flow will support RH of 15-20% during the
afternoon. While the modest surface winds will preclude broader
fire-weather concerns, locally breezy winds amid dry fuels could
support some brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions this
afternoon.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 011922
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Elevated Fire Weather Highlights were introduced into portions of
the High Plains of central/southern CO and eastern NM for Monday. A
backdoor cold front will usher in a cooler, but shallow moist
near-surface layer into much of the High Plains through tonight into
D2/Monday. Lee surface trough development in response to increasing
westerly flow aloft is expected ahead of the mid-level trough
entering the Southwest. This will support downslope drying and
breezy west-southwest winds of 15-20 mph (locally 25 mph) within a
narrow corridor along and east of the Southern Rockies, into
south-central NM. Eastward mixing of the dry line and subsequent
evolution of a deep, dry boundary layer should promote afternoon RH
reductions to around 15% by mid-afternoon. The combination of
stronger west-southwest winds, low RH and abundant dry fuels will
boost fire weather concerns for Monday.
...Lower Colorado River Basin and Four Corners....
Although a broad region of dry and breezy conditions will develop
across the Lower CO River Basin and Four Corners ahead of an
approaching mid-level trough, fuel receptiveness remains limited,
which should mitigate broader fire weather impacts along and west of
the Continental Divide.
..Williams.. 03/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Sub-tropical ridging over the Southwest is forecast to breakdown and
shift eastward ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave troughing moving
from the West. This will support modest lee troughing and increasing
westerly flow over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies.
While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry downslope winds
and warm temperatures could support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions D2/Monday.
...Northern NM and far southern CO...
Shortwave troughing and strong westerly flow aloft will move from
the Four Corners eastward into the southern Rockies and High Plains
D2/Monday. Very warm and dry surface conditions (RH below 15%) is
likely through the afternoon. Bolstered by the strengthening flow
aloft, west/southwest downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected
across eastern AZ, while slightly weaker winds are forecast into
central/northern NM and southern CO. Area fuels are less receptive
farther west where winds are expected to be stronger. Still, some
locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible from central
and northern NM into southern CO Monday afternoon. The poor
alignment of stronger surface winds with the drier fuels should
preclude more widespread elevated fire-weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282149
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal mid to upper-level flow will remain present across much
of the CONUS early next week, with an embedded short-wave trough
entering the Great Basin. Increasing mid-level
westerly-to-southwesterly flow is expected to accompany this feature
across the Southern Rockies D3/Monday into D4/Tuesday. A deepening
lee surface low is also anticipated to slide southward from eastern
CO into the High Plains of TX during these periods. As the
short-wave trough progresses eastward and fills over the Central
Plains D5/Wednesday, most extended model guidance suggests a
long-wave trough will then develop over the western half of the
CONUS.
...Southwest D3/Monday...
Breezy west-southwesterly surface winds, along with warm and dry
conditions, appear likely from southern CA into portions of NM by
afternoon. While critical probabilities were evaluated for this
region, they do not appear necessary at this time given less
receptive fuels to the west (AZ) and slower wind speeds impacting
locations to the east (NM).
...Eastern/Southeastern NM, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper
Trans-Pecos D4/Tuesday...
A southwesterly mid-level jet, deeply mixed boundary layer, and
increasing surface pressure gradient will likely lead to a broader
area of breezy conditions at the surface D4/Tuesday. Unseasonably
warm conditions will persist across this area, and with near zero
probabilities of rainfall expected, fuels will only become more
receptive over time. Although extended forecast models differ with
regards to the southward progression of a cold front across the
Central Plains, and the surface low position, confidence has
increased enough to warrant 40% critical probabilities across much
of eastern and southeastern NM ahead of the front.
...Eastern NM D6/Thursday...
Model solutions begin to diverge somewhat late in the week as the
next short-wave trough moves onshore near central/northern CA. The
position, depth, and progression of it vary through D6/Thursday,
though increasing mid-level flow across the Southern Rockies and a
subsequent lee surface low appear likely. As solutions begin to
converge in later forecasts, low critical probabilities for at least
eastern NM may be needed.
..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
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