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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 291657
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Only slight adjustments were made to the Elevated fire weather risk
area to include more of the southeastern CO Plains. Localized
critical fire weather conditions are expected along the
central-southern CO/northern NM Mountain chain into the adjacent
foothills. Strong southwesterly flow aloft is currently traversing
the southern Rockies while lee surface troughing tightens east of
the higher terrain, promoting gusty gap-flow and downslope winds
through the afternoon. Current surface observations depict
widespread RH values below 20% and some areas gusting over 40 mph (a
few observed 50+ mph gusts in south-central CO), with these
conditions already impacting the Aspen Acres wildfire. The smaller
spatial extent of expected fire weather conditions limits the
introduction of broader Critical highlights; however, very gusty
winds and low RH will further exacerbate the fire environment,
increasing concerns for rapid spread/fire growth on existing
wildfires and new ignitions. In addition, some mid-level moisture
may advect slightly more northward into Rio Grande Valley and
central-northern NM higher terrain later tonight. A lightning
ignition cannot be ruled out with any storms that may develop
(especially where drier fuels exist), though anticipated coverage
limits the introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights.
In southeast WY and the NE Panhandle, sparse fuels preclude the
expansion of Elevated highlights. However, dry and breezy conditions
may support localized fire concerns where pockets of drier fuels
exist.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the
Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will
transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting
mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating
southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will
help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin
and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering
enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive
fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and
Southwest today.
...Southwest/Four Corners region...
The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger
across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will
support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20
mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and
several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel
dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or
greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire
weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah,
western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern
Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional
wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region.
The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will
extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New
Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th
percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger
later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote
marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind
gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this
area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and
broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A
targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should
guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH
conditions across a more widespread area within this region.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 291929
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN COLORADO...AND EASTERN
UTAH...
...20z Update...
An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area was introduced across
central-northern NM into south-central CO on Day 2/Tuesday. A
shortwave trough will pass over the Four Corners region while
sufficient gulf moisture is transported into the southern Plains.
Some of this moisture is expected to advect farther west into the
Rio Grande Valley and the NM/CO higher terrain, where sufficient
lift and daytime instability may support the development of
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings depict 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE, a dry
sub-cloud layer, fast storm motions, and PWATs of 0.5-0.7" favoring
less precipitation efficiency. Lightning ignitions are possible
where dry fuels exist, and gusty/erratic outflow winds could further
exacerbate any new/ongoing fires. The rest of the forecast remains
on track, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
Amid persistent longwave troughing centered over the Intermountain
West, an embedded shortwave trough will pivot northeastward across
portions of the Great Basin and Colorado River Valley on Tuesday.
With several preceding days of dry/breezy conditions across the
region, this will continue to support expansive fire weather
concerns across portions of the Great Basin/Southwest.
...Four Corners region into eastern Utah/western Colorado...
As the aforementioned shortwave rounds the base of the longer
wavelength trough positioned across the West, a mid-level jet streak
is forecast to overspread the Four Corners/Colorado Plateau. Latest
high-res and ensemble guidance suggests that this will support a
corridor of enhanced (sustained 20-25 mph with occasional gusts of
30-35 mph) south-southwesterly winds from northeastern
Arizona/northwestern New Mexico into eastern Utah and western
Colorado amid minimum RH values of 5-10%. With several days of
dry/breezy conditions across the region, ERCs span from the 80th to
98th percentile (locally greater). This combination of dry/receptive
fuels and wind/RH conditions is expected to support critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the Four Corners region and
Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns
is forecast across adjacent regions of the Great Basin, Southwest,
and the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristos.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282112
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 061200Z
A shortwave trough will traverse the Interior West on Day 3/Tuesday,
promoting southerly flow across the Southwest into the central
Rockies before shifting northward into the Upper Midwest on Day
4/Wednesday. Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an
established dry airmass will maintain fire weather threats across
the Great Basin and Southwest. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high
pressure will continue to build across the central-eastern CONUS
through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal
temperatures with mostly dry conditions.
Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing will sustain fire weather concerns across the Southwest,
Great Basin, and CO Rockies next week. As such, 40% probabilities
have been maintained on Day 3/Tuesday, and Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday
where dry and breezy winds are forecast to overlap receptive fuels.
Beyond Day 6/Friday, extended guidance hints at the potential for a
pattern change. The upper-level trough is forecast to lift into the
northern Plains, while ensembles depict ridging may build across
northern Mexico and into the Southwest sometime next weekend. This
could potentially allow monsoonal moisture to advect northward;
however, varying model trends lend to lower predictability in the
overall pattern evolution.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/28/2026
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