ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 031830

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   No changes are needed from the previous forecast. Offshore flow will
   again be strongest through the mid to late morning hours. As surface
   heating brings daytime temperatures well above normal and RHs fall
   to 15-20%, 15-20 mph easterly winds will promote an Elevated fire
   weather threat over coastal portions of southern CA.

   ..Stearns.. 10/03/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Easterly off-shore flow is forecast to continue into Sunday,
   continuing Elevated fire-weather highlights for Southern California.
   The previous day of dry and windy conditions will serve to further
   cure the already dry fuels, bringing ERC fuel percentiles into the
   90th-95th annual percentiles. Relative humidity of 15-20% and winds
   of 10-15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather conditions, though
   the San Diego foothills may see gusts as high as 30-40 MPH.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032050

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

   Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

   The upper-level high over the Intermountain West will be suppressed
   as a shortwave trough moves onshore along the West Coast on Day
   3/Monday. As this occurs, the right exit region of a jet streak
   moving along the Canadian border will dip into northern MT, leading
   to dry and even warmer conditions. The upper-level ridge will
   undergo further suppression on Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday as
   the aforementioned jet continues to dive southward along its
   northeastern periphery. This pattern looks to fully break down the
   high as yet another higher-amplitude trough approaches the West
   Coast late next week. Forecast guidance currently indicates that
   this system will introduce increased winds, but also usher in cooler
   temperatures and precipitation chances. Regardless, after several
   days of dry conditions and above-normal temperatures, the potential
   for increased winds preceding moderated conditions late next week
   will be monitored closely.

   Over north-central MT on Day 3/Monday, westerly flow associated with
   the aforementioned upper-level jet will increase surface winds on
   the lee side of the Rocky Mountains and across much of central and
   eastern MT. Well-above-normal to near-record temperatures on Day
   3/Monday, amid widespread low afternoon minimum RHs (near 15-20%)
   and breezy westerly winds (15-20 mph), will meet/exceed elevated
   fire weather criteria. Meanwhile, given the warm and dry antecedent
   conditions, fuels remain driest across portions of central MT, where
   ERCs have risen to near the 80th percentile. Thus, a 40% probability
   of Critical Fire Weather has been introduced over this region on Day
   3/Monday.

   ..Stearns.. 10/03/2026