United States & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast

U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast

Map is in operation from early April through October 31

U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080555

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A trailing upper-level wave and associated stronger mid-level flow
   will move into the Northern Rockies and northern High Plains through
   today as another upper trough accelerates eastward into the Great
   Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extending southwestward from a
   deep low pressure in Manitoba Canada will push through the Northern
   Plains. As a result, the tighter pressure gradient across the
   northern High Plains will bolster westerly surface winds over much
   of northern/eastern WY as well as portions of southwestern SD, the
   NE Panhandle and southeastern MT. These winds along with a dry air
   mass augmented by downslope trajectories will support an elevated
   fire weather threat today.

   ...Southeastern Montana into northern/eastern Wyoming and the Black
   Hills vicinity...
   A 50-60 knot mid-level jet at the base of an approaching short wave
   will overspread much of southeastern MT, eastern WY and adjacent
   northern Plains later today as westerly winds at the surface are
   aided by a lingering modest pressure gradient. Minimum daytime RH of
   10-20% will be concentrated in central/northeastern WY with late day
   cloud cover infiltrating into southern MT ahead of an advancing
   secondary cold front, limiting RH reductions along and north of the
   MT/WY border. Although temperatures will be a few degrees cooler
   than Monday, the deep layer west-southwest flow and well-mixed
   boundary layer should still promote west winds of 15-20 mph by
   mid-afternoon. These winds and low RH coincident with dry fuels will
   support elevated fire weather concerns across southeastern Montana,
   northern/eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills areas. The daytime
   westerly winds along with an early/late evening northwest wind shift
   could also impact active wildfires within this region.

   ..Williams.. 09/08/2026

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 080556 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will shift into the Great Lakes while lingering but reduced west/northwest flow aloft remains over the northern/central Plains. Localized elevated fire weather concerns are expected across central WY mainly in the lee of larger mountain ranges as well as southern WY. A favorable downslope drying environment will persist over much of central/eastern WY, although diminished west/northwest boundary layer flow should limit a broader fire weather threat for D2/Wednesday. A warming and drying trend will continue across much of the western U.S. as an upper ridge builds into the Southwest. However, weak surface flow and a mitigated fuel environment should limit fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/08/2026

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 072143

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

   ...Discussion...
   Upper troughing will transition into the Great Lakes on Day
   3/Wednesday, allowing high pressure to temporarily build into the
   northern Great Basin. On Day 4/Thursday, a mid-level shortwave
   trough will descend into the northwestern U.S., promoting widespread
   dry and breezy conditions across the region and into the northern
   Plains. A surface low will strengthen across the Dakotas as the
   associated shortwave trough departs; meanwhile, west-southwesterly
   flow will overspread the northwestern CONUS on Day 5/Friday.
   Ensembles are in general agreement for an upper-level low to
   traverse the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies this weekend.
   This pattern may provide broader precipitation chances and much
   cooler temperatures, thus subduing fire weather concerns across most
   of the northwestern/northern CONUS.

   A dry airmass and strong westerly winds will expand across the
   northern Great Basin into the northern Plains on Day 4/Thursday.
   While such meteorological conditions would typically enhance fire
   weather concerns, the overlap of critical RH/winds is displaced from
   drier fuels. However, should these conditions expand over a more
   receptive fuelscape (particularly eastern Wyoming and western South
   Dakota), critical probabilities may be warranted in future outlook
   cycles. A southward progressing cold front may bring much cooler
   temperatures to the High Plains to end the work-week, though strong
   winds and low RH along/ahead of the front could revitalize fire
   concerns where fuels remain receptive.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/07/2026

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