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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 091631

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1031 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

   Valid 091700Z - 101200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
   WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN
   NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME
   NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA,FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Several hours of widespread elevated and critical fire weather
   conditions are expected across the Southern High Plains this
   afternoon. Current guidance is still on track for strong
   west-southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph gusting to 40 mph in some
   areas and RH decreasing to 10-15 percent atop a dry fuelscape. An
   expansion of the Elevated area was added along the southern
   foothills of Colorado to include a corridor of strong winds and low
   RH overlapping potentially receptive fuels. 

   ...Central High Plains...
   Increased mid-level cloud cover and passage of a cold front across
   eastern Wyoming and northern Nebraska this afternoon may inhibit
   deeper mixing and limit the temporal extent of more critical fire
   weather conditions. However, a few hours of dry and breezy
   conditions atop dry fuels should still support fire weather concerns
   today. The Elevated and Critical areas are unchanged, see the
   previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/09/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS
   today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge
   over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the
   central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of
   the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry
   downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern
   High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions
   will foster wildfire-spread potential.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will
   become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the
   central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent
   amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying
   fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger
   post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support
   wildfire spread.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a
   very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the
   10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds
   exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus
   still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over
   northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and
   immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such
   conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been
   maintained.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 091852

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...19z Update...
   No changes, see the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/09/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge will amplify over the Rockies as a mid-level trough
   progresses over the Great Lakes toward the Northeast tomorrow
   (Tuesday). This upper-air pattern will aid in driving a surface cold
   front southward across the central into the southern CONUS through
   the period, reinforced by surface high pressure. As a result, a
   relatively cooler and moist low-level airmass will overspread the
   Plains, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092141

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

   Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

   Progressive mid-level flow will continue over the US through next
   week. Strong westerly winds will continue to increase over the
   Rockies and Plains through this week and into the weekend. This will
   encourage westerly downslope flow and lee troughing late this week.
   By this weekend a more substantial trough should emerge and deepen
   over the southern US. Some potential for more active fire-weather
   conditions appears possible over southern TX through this weekend.
   The active toughing pattern should continue into next week.

   ...Southern High Plains D4/Thursday...
   With zonal flow increasing over parts of the southern Rockies mid to
   late week, a shortwave trough is expected to move into the southern
   High Plains. Strong westerly flow will support the development of a
   weak lee low D4/Thursday. South of the low, enhanced westerly
   downslope flow is expected from eastern NM into west TX. Bolstered
   by stronger westerly winds and deep mixing, afternoon gusts of 15-25
   mph appear possible. The strong winds will likely overlap with a
   warm and dry air mass with relative humidity below 20%. With little
   recent rainfall in the area, the overlap of dry fuels and elevated
   fire-weather conditions appear possible before a cold front moves
   south into D5/Friday. A 40% area has been added for D4/Thursday.

   ...Rio Grande Valley and South Texas D5/Friday-D7/Sunday...
   The more prominent upper trough over Baja CA and northern MEX will
   translate eastward D5/Friday into the weekend. Strong ascent will
   overspread the far Southern Plains into parts of South TX and the
   Rio Grande. A lee low will move off the MEX High Plateau supporting
   inland moisture advection over parts of south TX. Widespread
   precipitation (projected QPF in the 0.5-2 inch range) is expected to
   develop north of the surface low along a stalled front across
   portions of central TX into OK and the mid to lower MS Valley. This
   should largely limit fire-weather potential farther north.

   D6/Saturday, dry and breezy surface conditions may develop behind
   the departing low from the TX Big Bend to the Rio Grande Valley.
   Trailing the low, a Pacific Front will move east with much drier air
   mass behind it. Strong west/northwesterly flow on the backside of
   the low may mix down increasing surface winds to 20  mph. This could
   support the potential for fire-weather conditions
   D6/Saturday. However, model spread on the potential for
   precipitation, the frontal passage, and impacts to area fuels
   remains too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time.

   By D7/Sunday, the upper trough and Surface low will move eastward. A
   temporarily cooler air mass will fill in, before southerly winds
   start to build again into next week. Strong troughing over the West
   should continue, spreading strong flow aloft over parts of the
   Southwest and Plains. This appears likely to support a general
   increase in fire-weather concerns with time through the remainder of
   the extended forecast period.

   ..Lyons/Elizalde-Garcia.. 02/09/2026
      




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