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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 111534
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
Only minor changes were made to the Elevated area over the central
High Plains today. The latest forecast guidance indicates that
Elevated wind/RH thresholds will be met concurrently farther to the
northwest over portions of south-central WY. Though surface
temperatures will remain slightly below normal today, fuels remain
critically dry (ERCs near the 90th percentile) over this region as a
result of the drying event over the last several days. Given the
lightning activity that occurred last weekend over this specific
area, hold over fires are also not out of the question. Elsewhere
across the nearby central Rockies and portions of the Southwest, the
forecast remains on track with the progression of the cold front
through the region resulting in northeasterly winds across much of
the eastern half of the drawn area this afternoon. Also, northerly
winds on the back side of the trough remain as forecast over the
northern Sacramento Valley. However, expect winds there to slowly
weaken through the afternoon hours as flow aloft becomes more
westerly and less aligned with the valley's orientation.
..Stearns.. 06/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
A compact upper trough will exit the Great Basin region this
afternoon, traversing the High Plains and moving over the Upper
Midwest in the late evening. A surface low will develop
northeastward to the Great Lakes region and send a cold front
southward through the southern Plains. An amplifying upper ridge
over the eastern Pacific will promote warm and dry conditions across
the Interior West, though much lighter winds (compared to previous
days) will bring some relief to the fire environment. However, very
dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire concerns.
...Four Corners, southern Colorado Rockies and adjacent High
Plains...
As the upper trough and attendant surface low exit the region,
surface troughing over the Four Corners and Colorado Plateau will
support westerly winds up to 15 mph amid 10-15% RH. In the wake of a
cold front, veering north-easterly 15-20 mph winds (gusts up to 30
mph) and RH values of 10-20% will spread across portions of the
southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Elevated highlights have
been maintained to account for these conditions where dry fuels
exist. Latest forecast guidance also shows elevated wind/RH
spreading farther east over portions of the central High Plains.
However, recent rainfall and resultant sub-critical fuels preclude
an expansion of highlights. Briefly critical conditions are possible
across northern NM and portions of the CO Plains and gap-flow
regions, but the localized extent and limited duration of stronger
winds precludes critical highlights.
...Sacramento Valley...
Current northerly winds of 10-15 mph will persist with very poor
humidity recoveries (RH values of 20-30% overnight). As an upper
ridge over the eastern Pacific pushes the upper trough eastward,
northwesterly flow aloft will weaken and shift more westerly.
Northerly surface winds will gradually decrease throughout the
afternoon, however fire concerns remain as 10-15% RH lingers into
the evening. An extended burning period and dry fine fuels support
Elevated highlights within the Valley and adjacent foothills.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 111943
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
Slight expansions were made to the larger Elevated area encompassing
the central Rocky Mountains and the surrounding areas of the
southeastern Great Basin and central High Plains. Ahead of the
previously mentioned cold front dropping south through the Great
Plains, southwest/west winds of 10-20 mph will combine with RHs of
5-15% across the NE Panhandle and adjacent portions of eastern and
central WY to support Elevated conditions amid critically dry fuels
(ERCs near the 90-95th percentile). Across southern UT, above normal
temperatures supporting deep boundary layer mixing will also
contribute to slightly stronger westerly winds of 10-20 mph amid the
dry surface RHs of 5-10%. This will also support expanded Elevated
fire weather conditions farther west of the previously drawn area.
Across the Snake River Plain of ID, Elevated conditions remain on
track as previously forecast.
..Stearns.. 06/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
As ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest, broad upper-level
troughing will extend across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
regions. A shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies
Friday afternoon with increasing mid-level westerly flow ushering
low RH and gusty winds through the Snake River Plain. Enhanced zonal
flow over the CO Rockies and south-central WY will promote gusty
winds and downslope drying amid warm daytime temperatures,
continuing a broader fire weather threat where fuels approach
critical thresholds.
...Upper Colorado River Basin, Central Rockies, and southern
Wyoming...
Strong upper-level winds will overspread the region on Friday
afternoon, encouraging continued dry and breezy conditions while
surface temperatures rise 10+ degrees above normal under the
influence of high pressure. Sustained westerly winds of up to 15 mph
and 10-15% RH are expected to overlap a drying fuelscape, thus
Elevated highlights have been introduced. Localized critical
conditions (less than 10% RH and 15-20 mph winds) are possible
across portions of northeastern UT and southern WY. However, sparse
fuels preclude critical highlights, though an upgrade may be
considered in future outlook cycles.
...Snake River Plain...
Ahead of an approaching cold front, sustained westerly winds of
10-20 mph will combine with 10-15% RH (locally lower) in the Snake
River Plain, supportive of Elevated highlights. Weeks of dry, windy
conditions and minimal precipitation has inflicted curing of fuels
across the region, enhancing fire weather concerns as ERCs approach
the 80th-90th percentile on Friday.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 112148
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will remain anchored over the
Manitoba/Ontario region on Day 3/Saturday as an upper-level ridge
builds over the West Coast. Early next week, a shortwave trough is
forecast to dig southward around the base of this persistent
Canadian trough, tracking across the northern Rockies around Day
4/Sunday. The upper-level ridge is expected to break down early to
mid-week as an upper-level jet max strengthens and progresses ahead
of an incoming northern Pacific trough. This secondary trough is
projected to move onshore into the Pacific Northwest by mid-to-late
next week, subsequently shifting the axis of the ridge eastward over
the Great Plains.
...Day 3/Saturday...
A narrow, amplified upper-level ridge will stretch across the
western CONUS on Day 3/Saturday, while a subtle mid-level shortwave
migrates across the Southwest. Simultaneously, a plume of mid-level
moisture advecting northward from the Baja Peninsula will promote
convective potential, primarily centered over the southern Great
Basin. Given deep, dry antecedent fuel conditions resulting from
consecutive days of hot, dry, and breezy weather, dry thunderstorms
will pose an ignition concern across northern AZ and southern UT. A
10% probability of dry thunderstorms continues for this area.
Further spatial modifications to this risk area remain likely in
upcoming outlook cycles as additional forecast guidance becomes
available.
...Day 6/Tuesday through Day 7/Wednesday...
Looking deeper into next week, the wholesale breakdown of the
western ridge is expected to escalate fire weather concerns across
the Intermountain West as the jet strengthens and gives way to
another trough later next week. But first, at least 2-3 days of well
above normal surface temperatures will occur under the established
ridge. Daily record high temperatures could be met or exceeded in
portions of the Pacific Northwest as this anomalous, but
short-lived, heat wave effectively dries dead fuels over much of the
western CONUS - significantly so over the Pacific Northwest. As the
ridge dampens and begins to slide eastward, expect winds to
strengthen amid the pre-existing very warm and dry conditions. Thus,
40% Critical probabilities have been introduced over portions of the
Great Basin and Southwest on Day 6/Tuesday and Day 7/Wednesday.
These areas will likely require expansion when the areal extent of
the strongest winds becomes more clear.
..Stearns.. 06/11/2026
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