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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 020744
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will consist of a western ridge and an
eastern trough on Friday. A short-wave trough will undercut the
western ridge and traverse the Southern Plains as it moves toward
the Southeast. As this trough moves east, a surface low will develop
across eastern Texas on Friday. To the west of this low, westerly
downslope flow will support gusty surface winds and modest drying.
This will support elevated fire-weather conditions across portions
of west and southwest Texas. Here, the greatest potential relative
humidity values to fall into the 20%s amidst winds in the 10-15 mph
range with stronger gusts.
..Marsh.. 01/02/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 020745
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The prevailing large-scale mid-level pattern will remain the same on
Saturday (as compared to Friday) with a western ridge and eastern
trough. The short-wave trough that will have moved across the
Southern Plains on Friday will be absorbed into the eastern US
longwave trough on Saturday. As this happens, low-level moisture
will be drawn northward into the Southeast. To the west of this
trough (across the Southern Plains), relative humidity will once
again fall into the 20%s across portions of southern and southwest
Texas, however, with the departure of the mid-level wave, winds
should be light enough to preclude fire-weather highlights.
..Marsh.. 01/02/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 012146
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
Low amplitude ridging is expected to develop over the central US
this weekend, with low amplitude ridging to quasi-zonal flow over
much of the CONUS early to mid-next week. A jet will like likely
extend east-northeast from off the southern California coast through
the Colorado Rockies this weekend into early next week, which will
increase downslope flow for portions of the southern/central Plains.
While widespread precipitation is expected for the West Coast, much
of the central US, especially the Plains, are likely to remain dry
into mid-next week. Most of the Southeast will also receive little
to no precipitation after Day 3/Saturday.
...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday: central/southern High Plains...
Downslope flow will increase across the central High Plains on Day
4/Sunday as a westerly mid-level jet impinges on the
central/southern Rockies. Elevated conditions are possible from
southeast Wyoming into southern Colorado along and just east of the
eastern slopes of the Rockies. However, current forecast guidance
indicates misalignment of the strongest winds and lowest RH.
Additionally, there is uncertainty regarding how far down the
eastern slopes of the Rockies the stronger winds will extend.
Despite recent precipitation, fuels remain historically dry for this
time of year across portions of these areas.
On Day 5/Monday, downslope flow and subsequent lee troughing will
likely result in elevated/locally critical fire weather conditions
in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity as breezy west-southwest winds
strengthen amid a dry airmass across portions of the southern High
Plains. Forecast guidance indicates the possibility of elevated fire
weather conditions continuing on Day 6/Monday in portions of west
Texas extending into central/north Texas, but too much forecast
uncertainty exists to introduce probabilities at this time.
..Nauslar.. 01/01/2026
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