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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 051522
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 051700Z - 061200Z
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Elevated conditions
will remain on track across the drawn area according to the latest
forecast guidance. While isolated to scattered clouds over the
southeastern quarter of New Mexico may limit early afternoon
boundary layer mixing, they are not expected to be persistent enough
to keep surface conditions below elevated criteria. As was
previously mentioned, there is a possibility of transient locally
critical conditions over far northeastern New Mexico late this
afternoon. However, the short duration and limited areal extent will
preclude the introduction of a critical drawn area.
..Stearns.. 04/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the West today with
longwave troughing across the Great Lakes region. Concurrently,
surface high pressure will prevail across the central/southern Great
Plains while a cold front progresses eastward across the East
Coast/Southeast. A second cold front will simultaneously move
southward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
A tightened surface pressure gradient between the aforementioned
surface high over the central Great Plains and low pressure across
the Gulf of California will promote sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across the same region. With current fuel
conditions across portions of the southern High Plains some of the
driest within the CONUS, this combination of winds and RH is
expected to promote elevated fire weather conditions for at least a
few hours this afternoon. Farther south across extreme southeastern
New Mexico and portions of West Texas, greater mid/high cloud cover
should result in RH values remaining more marginal. While locally
elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across this area,
the more marginal forecast RH values coupled with greater
uncertainty regarding wind speed duration and magnitude preclude a
southward expansion of Elevated highlights at this time.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 051812
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
A Critical area was added over much of the Oklahoma Panhandle, and
adjacent portions of the Texas Panhandle, northeast New Mexico,
southeast Colorado, and southwest Kansas. As the surface low
strengthens over eastern Colorado, the latest forecast guidance
suggests that southwest surface winds will approach 20-25 mph within
this area for multiple hours during peak heating. Additionally, much
of the Critical area is also experiencing elevated conditions during
the Day 1/Sunday time frame, working to further pre-condition fuels.
The Elevated area was also expanded slightly in accordance with the
latest forecast guidance showing drier air farther east over
portions of south-central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Consensus
indicates that the aforementioned cold front will approach northern
portions of the drawn area after sunset. However, given the slow
moving nature and proximity of this front, it's progression will be
monitored closely with future issuances.
..Stearns.. 04/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen on D2/Monday
as an incoming mid-level trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest
and a more second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses
eastward over the Southwest. Simultaneously, longwave troughing will
persist across the Northeast, with a cold front continuing to
advance eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. A second cold front
will also progress southward across the central Great
Plains/Midwest.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Similar to D1/Sunday, a tightened surface pressure gradient will
result in sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph over portions
of the central/southern High Plains on D2/Monday. With minimum RH
values forecast in the 10-15% range during the afternoon and dry,
receptive fuels in place across the region, this will promote
elevated fire weather concerns for portions of northeastern New
Mexico, southeastern Colorado, much of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas. Latest high-res guidance
suggests that locally greater sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph
may support a brief period of critical fire weather conditions
Monday afternoon, with the greatest potential across the western
Oklahoma Panhandle and immediately adjacent portions of TX/NM/CO.
Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of stronger
sustained surface winds as well as timing/positioning discrepancies
of an approaching cold front within latest model guidance. Trends
will be monitored for a possible upgrade in future outlooks.
The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress slowly
southward before stalling in the vicinity of the Elevated area late
Monday evening into Monday night, but it remains uncertain as to how
far south this front will progress. Areas that do see the passage of
the cold front can expect a shift to northeasterly winds and at
least some increase in relative humidity.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 052012
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Upper-level ridging over the western US will continue to dampen on
Day 3/Tuesday due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
This trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern
half of the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 5/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 7/Saturday before moving
inland and contributing to potentially multiple days of
precipitation, particularly over California and the Great Basin.
...Southeast (Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of the southern
Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and South
Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Tuesday across southern Georgia and Day
4/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. This
regime will contribute to northeast 10-15 mph winds combined with
RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating periods over the
aforementioned areas on the respective days. As such, 40%
probabilities were included over these areas.
...Southern Plains (Day 4/Wednesday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains again on Day 4/Wednesday. Much
of this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system moves inland late in the week.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday)...
Some potential for critical conditions will exist across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest as the upper-level ridge continues to
erode on starting on Day 3/Tuesday. The best chances for sporadic
fire weather conditions under the southerly flow will occur on Day
4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. However, recent cooler weather,
precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
additional precipitation also appears likely with the aforementioned
low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/05/2026
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