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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 241621

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

   Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

   The forecast remains on track for elevated fire weather conditions
   this afternoon across the northwestern Great Basin. 16z surface
   observations already depict RH values declining to less than 25%
   across the region. Satellite imagery portrays mostly clear skies
   this morning, though mid/high-level clouds will increase throughout
   the day as the upper trough and attendant surface low approach the
   Pacific Northwest. High temperatures in the 80s and 90s amid
   sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph (gusts of 25 mph or greater)
   and near 15% RH will maintain fire weather concerns where some dry
   fuels exist.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/24/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Increasing southwest winds associated with an mid/upper trough
   impinging upon the Pacific Northwest will promote elevated fire
   weather conditions to northwest portions of the Great Basin today.
   An upper ridge over the south-central CONUS will maintain above
   normal temperatures for portions of the Southern Plains and Lower MS
   River Valley but light winds and marginal RH reductions will limit
   fire weather concerns over the region where more receptive fuels
   persist.

   ...Northwestern Great Basin...
   A deepening surface trough over eastern OR/WA in response to
   increasing southwest flow aloft in advance of an upper-level wave
   will bring gusty southwest winds to the northwestern Great Basin
   today. The sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph coupled with
   afternoon RH reductions of 15-20% (locally 10%) will bring an
   elevated fire weather threat to northeastern CA, southeastern OR and
   far northwestern NV. These meteorological conditions will align with
   sufficiently dry fuels for several hours this afternoon.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241842

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   Only minor adjustments were made to the Day 2/Friday Elevated fire
   weather highlights across the northern Great Basin; otherwise, the
   forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion for
   details.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/24/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A robust upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest
   D2/Friday. At the surface, a cold front progresses southeastward
   reaching the Northern Rockies and Great Basin by late Friday.
   Enhanced southwest winds prior to frontal passage will promote fire
   weather concerns for northern NV into bordering OR/ID.

   ...Northern Nevada, far southeastern Oregon and southwestern
   Idaho...
   A 60-70 knot mid-level jet will shift over southeastern OR as the
   upper trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest. The resultant deep
   layer southwesterly flow bolstered by surface troughing stretching
   from the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin will encourage
   southwest winds of 15-20 mph (locally 25 mph) across portions of the
   northern Great Basin. Minimum daytime RH within a well-mixed
   boundary layer could reach 10-15% prior to frontal passage. Elevated
   fire weather concerns are likely to evolve within the dry and breezy
   conditions where adequately dry fuels exist over northern Northern
   Nevada, far southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho. Gusty
   post-frontal west/northwest winds could bring a secondary risk to
   any potential wildfires but rising RH within the cooler air mass
   will limit impact duration.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 242115

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0415 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

   Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

   ...Discussion...
   A coastal low will continue to strengthen just off the Mid-Atlantic
   coast, bringing gusty surface winds and precipitation chances across
   New England this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough will
   lift out of the Northern Rockies and into the Canadian Prairies.
   Upper winds will moderate slightly on Day 3/Saturday, though an
   emerging 30-40 kt 700 mb jet will maintain dry and breezy conditions
   across portions of the Great Basin through Day 4/Sunday. The
   expected overlap of sustained southerly 15-20 mph winds and near 15%
   RH would typically increase fire weather concerns, but such
   meteorological conditions will overlap a region of marginal fuels;
   thus, precluding Critical probabilities at this time. 

   Predictability wanes into early next week with ambiguity in the
   progression of the overall pattern; however, the development of
   deeper troughing over the western CONUS may induce an offshore flow
   regime in Southern California on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday.
   Additionally, some tropical influence from Hurricane Polo could
   bring increased moisture to the southwestern CONUS early next week.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/24/2026
      




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