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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 151614
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
The forecast remains unchanged. The lowest RH is expected to remain
near the terrain/foothills in Colorado where downslope flow will be
greatest. However, there may be a small zone in northeast Colorado
along the fringe of lower RH that will observe a couple hours of
critical conditions this afternoon. For additional details, see the
previous discussion below.
..Wendt.. 01/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will continue to deepen over the eastern US as
a second trough begins to move out of southern Canada. A strong jet
streak and reinforcing cold front will approach from the north
bolstering strong surface winds. With dry conditions already in
place, the strong winds will likely support increasing fire-weather
potential Thursday.
...Central and southern High Plains...
As the strong trough moves southeast over the US, lee troughing will
promote stronger westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the
central High Plains. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior
cold font afternoon RH values of 15-25% are expected across parts of
southeastern WY into northern CO and western KS/NE. Surface winds of
25-40 mph overlapped with the low humidity will likely favor
sustained elevated fire-weather conditions for several hours given
very dry fine fuels.
A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also
possible across the region through the afternoon. The strongest
gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity,
and some light precipitation has tempered the driest fuels. This
lower confidence precludes the inclusion of a critical area for now.
However, with strong gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range
and fuels abnormally dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are
possible.
A west/northwesterly flow regime is expected over parts of the TX
Panhandle and eastern NM with similar dry/breezy conditions. Lee
troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH below
20%. With dry fuels in place, and recent fire activity, several
hours of enhanced fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts
of the southern Plains this afternoon.
..Southeast...
Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the
wake of the strong frontal passage. Northwest winds of 10-20 mph are
likely over portions of southern GA into the carolinas and northern
FL. Afternoon RH values will likely be below 30%, before much cooler
surface temperatures and light precipitation arrive behind the
front. This should mitigate fire-weather concerns to some degree,
though localized elevated conditions are possible given the dry
state of areas fuels and the overlap with breezy offshore winds.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150839
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis...
A stronger mid-level trough will dig into the southern Plains as
broader troughing becomes established over the eastern half of the
CONUS. A reinforcing cold front will move south into OK/TX early
Friday. This will support strong northwesterly gusts over much of
the Plains and some fire-weather potential.
...Southern Plains...
As the cold front moves south temperatures will be cooler, but the
coldest air should lag behind the front. With the air mass already
dry from the prior frontal intrusion, dry downsloping should result
in low RH of 10-20% over much of the Plains. Strong northwesterly
winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are likely from western KS
into OK/TX. Fuels remain very dry despite light precipitation and
cooler temperatures over the preceding days. This should support
widespread elevated and some critical fire-weather conditions Friday
afternoon.
A couple hours of critical conditions appear most likely beneath and
just south of the strong 700 mb jet across northern and western OK
Friday afternoon. Here, a few gusts to 40+ mph are possible
overlapped with fuels in the 90-95th seasonal percentile.
...Central High Plains...
Much cooler surface temperatures (30s and 40s F) are expected
farther north into KS and eastern CO behind the front. However, very
dry conditions, single digit to below zero dewpoints and strong
winds of 20-30 mph may still pose a brief locally elevated
fire-weather threat where fuels are the most receptive.
..Lyons.. 01/15/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142128
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
The upper-level pattern over the next eight days will generally
feature a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. This pattern
will favor repeated cold fronts pushing into areas east of the
Divide. Precipitation will largely miss much of the Great
Basin/Southwest/southern High Plains. The southern Plains will be
the primary focus for fire weather concerns given the dry fuels that
exist within the region. The level of risk will depend on the timing
of the frontal passages as well as the strength of the cold air mass
pushing southward. Predictability is low during this extended period
due to some of those uncertainties.
...Southern Plains...
After a recent cold air intrusion, temperatures should warm slightly
for Thursday in advance of another cold front. On Friday, a stronger
mid-level trough will dig into the southern Plains during the
afternoon. A cold front will move through Oklahoma/North Texas
during early Friday morning. In its wake, temperatures will be
cooler, but the coldest air should lag behind the front. That being
said, strong northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts)
and generally clear skies should promote boundary layer mixing with
15-25% possible. Fuel receptiveness is high across the region.
Elevated to perhaps localized critical conditions are possible.
..Wendt.. 01/14/2026
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