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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 011526
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. As mentioned, the driest
fuels across the CONUS, over portions of the Arkansas Basin, are
expected to receive beneficial precipitation. Thus, no changes are
needed with limited fire concerns today.
..Stearns.. 10/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over the southern Plains will transition into
weakening upper troughing as it progresses northeastward this
afternoon. At the surface, a slow-moving cold front will extend from
the Great Lakes region into the Texas Hill Country. Widespread
rainfall is expected along the front, bringing much-needed relief to
dry fuels in the eastern Arkansas River Basin. Meanwhile, ridging
will rapidly expand over the Desert Southwest, promoting
above-normal temperatures and dry conditions in much of the western
Great Basin and California. Fuels will continue to dry under these
meteorological conditions, but light surface winds limit fire
weather concerns.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 010445
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Reduced fire weather concerns will continue across the CONUS into
Day 2/Friday. A cold front extending from the Ohio Valley into the
ArkLaTex will slowly sag southward, bringing higher humidity and
cooler temperatures. An expansive region of accumulating
precipitation is expected along and ahead of the front, providing
some relief to a rainfall-neglected fuelscape in the lower
Mississippi River Valley. As upper ridging expands over the Great
Basin, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist;
however, generally light surface winds will keep fire weather
concerns low.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/01/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 302123
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
A southward progressing cold front will push into the Ohio River
Valley and Southern Plains by Day 3/Friday as an increasingly
diffuse mid-level trough lingers over the Southern Plains. The cold
front will meet an air mass infused with anomalously high
atmospheric moisture leading to wetting rains across parts of the
Ohio River Valley and the Southeast. This should result in a
contraction of receptive fuels and reduced fire weather concerns for
the Ohio River Valley and Mid-South.
Forecast confidence remains high in the overall upper-level pattern
evolution with a broad ridge gradually building across the western
U.S. well into next week. Model guidance consensus still indicates a
weak upper wave/low pushing into northern California and Oregon on
Day 5/Sunday. However, limited moisture and instability in addition
to marginally dry fuels should suppress dry thunderstorm potential
and impacts in northern California Sunday. Otherwise, the primary
effect of the ridge will be above normal temperatures and dry
conditions with resulting drying fuels. Mid/upper troughing and
associated enhanced winds could return to the western U.S. by late
next week (beyond Day 8/Wednesday), potentially ushering in broader
fire weather concerns into areas where multiple days of warm and dry
conditions will have preconditioned the fuelscape.
..Williams.. 09/30/2026
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