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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 091615
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
Satellite imagery and surface observations show areas of low level
clouds and fog adjacent to the Elevated area over the central High
Plains this morning. However, these clouds are already beginning to
clear as daytime heating continues across the region. As mixing
increases, clearing any remaining clouds and increasing surface
winds, all areas remain on track to meet thresholds later today.
Thus, only minor tweaks were made to the outlook areas to reflect
the latest trends in forecast guidance placement of the
aforementioned surface features. While RH conditions look to be more
marginal across the central High Plains outlook area, strong
westerly winds are still anticipated over this region this afternoon
with plenty of solar radiation and above normal temperatures.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will continue over the US today as an upper low
moves into the Southwest and a second upper trough crosses the
northern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains will
support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow
over regions with receptive fuels. Elevated to critical fire-weather
conditions are probable.
...Central High Plains...
Ahead of the northern upper trough, initial cyclogenesis should
continue as a trailing lee trough deepens over the High Plains.
Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase near the surface
low, and will peak during the late afternoon hours. Sustained winds
of 15-25 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% are expected.
Despite some recent precipitation, fine fuels are receptive after
multiple days of persistent downslope winds, supporting widespread
elevated and fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions
of eastern WY into western and central NE. Fire-weather conditions
will end overnight as a cold front associated with the departing
surface low moves southward, ushering in cooler air over the central
Plains.
...Southern High Plains...
Lee troughing south of the deepening surface low will support 15-25
mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles
this afternoon. Dry air advecting and downsloping into the region
today will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A
swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from
northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow
aloft. Despite precipitation in the last several days, continued
drying and downslope winds will support drying of fine fuels and
elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions into parts of
western OK.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 091916
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was introduced overlapping
portions of the existing Elevated area and also extending north into
southwestern and central Kansas. As previously mentioned in the
initial Day 2/Tuesday Outlook, the environment is supportive of
thunderstorm development across much of the southern Plains as also
indicated in the general thunderstorm forecast. Along and behind the
dryline on the western periphery of anticipated severe convection,
precipitable water values, indicative of moisture above a dry
sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an inch and are not
expected to lead to significant rainfall accumulation. Storm motion
peaking at 30-40 knots across the southern portion of the Isolated
Dry Thunderstorm area is also an additive factor in this
environment. While confidence exists in dry thunderstorm development
on Day 2/Tuesday, the exact coverage, in particular adjacent to and
within the southern end of the drawn area, could be affected by
changes in the movement of the surface dryline and/or the cutoff
low's progression.
The Elevated area was trimmed slightly across portions of extreme
southeastern New Mexico and west-central Texas in agreement with
latest forecast guidance. Guidance also indicates that portions of
the Elevated area may not reach elevated criteria with recent
HREF/REFS probabilities of less than 20%.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the
southern Plains D2/Tuesday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will
intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a
trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of
the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread
showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind
the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some
fire-weather potential.
...Southern High Plains...
As the upper low over the Southwest moves northeastward, strong flow
aloft and ascent will overspread parts of the southern High Plains.
A surface low will deepen with a surface trough/dryline supporting
dry downslope flow across the southern Rockies and High Plains on D2
(Tuesday afternoon). Gusty west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph are
expected along with afternoon humidity of 20-25%. This should
support elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of West TX,
the Rio Grande Valley and far eastern NM where fuels remain dry and
receptive.
The potential for precipitation and the location of the dryline
remain a significant source of uncertainty on the overall areal
extent and magnitude of the fire-weather threat D2/Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected both to the west and east of the
dryline. Cloud cover and increasing humidity may also limit the
potential for more intense fire-weather conditions despite
relatively strong surface winds. Changes will likely be needed to
the eastern extent of the Elevated area as details surrounding
dryline and precipitation placement become clearer on Day1/Monday.
While storms are likely over central NM, relatively modest moisture
profiles (PWATS generally under 0.6 inches) suggest a few of these
storms may not be overly productive for wetting rainfall. With steep
low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy, a few lightning strikes
are possible. These storms could be drier with the potential for
lightning to interact with receptive fuels. However, dry
thunderstorm coverage appears too low to introduce probabilities at
this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 092143
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
The upper level low currently over the southwest CONUS will push
eastward across the southern US through the week. Upper level flow
largely becomes zonal in the wake of this low, with shortwave trough
passages impacting northern and central portions of the CONUS. This
will lead to dry air in place just east of the Rocky Mountains over
portions of the High Plains. While the pattern remains on track from
previous days, the exact timing and placement of daily areas will
likely fluctuate with surface features dominating the forecast.
On Day 4/Thursday, strong west-northwest winds sustained up to 30
mph will impact the surface behind a frontal boundary. Thanks to the
cold frontal passage, RHs will likely reach near-critical
thresholds, bottoming out around 15-25% across a good portion of the
High Plains stretching all the way from northeast New Mexico to
eastern Wyoming. Thus, the existing two areas of 40% probabilities
were combined and also extended further north just barely into
southeastern Montana. The 70% area was similarly extended toward
this direction over extreme eastern Wyoming and southwest South
Dakota as well. Higher elevations of the Black Hills are not
expected to reach critical thresholds.
On Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday, additional 40% probabilities
were similarly added over portions of the same area. Thus, eastern
Wyoming and western Nebraska in particular should expect multiple
consecutive days of potential critical fire weather conditions on
Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday leading into the coming
weekend. Though, strong westerly winds will be less widespread on
Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday. This will lead to only slightly
higher afternoon RHs as well with cooler air in place and slightly
less mixing.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026
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