ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150555

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough will dig into the southern Great Basin/Four
   Corners on Thursday. A modest subtropical jet stream will develop
   across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
   strong low pressure system will deepen in the vicinity of the Black
   Hills. A fairly strong cold front will progress southward into the
   central Plains.

   ...Southern New Mexico into central High Plains...
   This region will generally exist in between the developing southern
   stream jet and the digging trough to the northwest for most of the
   period. Some increase in mid-level winds may occur by late
   afternoon, however. A very dry airmass is expected. RH could
   approach single digits locally, but will more broadly be 10-20%.
   This is forecast despite increasing mid/upper clouds with time. The
   overall expectation is for elevated to near critical fire weather
   conditions. Sustained critical could occur locally, but confidence
   highlighting where this will occur remains low.

   ...Far eastern Wyoming into Nebraska/South Dakota...
   As the surface low deepens, winds of 15-20 mph will be possible. RH
   values of 10-20% will occur during the afternoon. The strongest
   mid-level flow will generally remain farther west of the region
   which should limit the potential for sustained critical conditions.
   Further, the cold front is forecast to progress southward which will
   lead to a stark shift to northerly winds and greater RH. Given the
   strength of the front, the more southern frontal solutions have been
   weighted higher in this forecast.

   ...Southern Appalachians into Mid-Atlantic...
   The persistent dry return flow pattern will continue another day.
   Temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s F will again promote a broad
   area of reduced RH values during the afternoon. 25-35% will again be
   common, but areas near 20% are still possible. Winds will still be
   somewhat weak at 10-15 mph, but very dry fuels will still support a
   elevated fire weather threat.

   ..Wendt.. 04/15/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142204

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0504 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest Day
   3/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the
   eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope flow and a
   continued fire weather threat across the southern High Plains on Day
   3/Thursday. A more widespread fire weather threat is expected on Day
   4/Friday as the amplifying trough moves into the central U.S.
   Farther east, upper-level ridging will keep much of the Mid Atlantic
   and Southeastern U.S. dry through the week. The exceptionally dry
   fuels and occasional elevated southerly winds will pose a lingering
   fire weather threat across this region. Towards the end of the
   forecast period, another deep trough will approach western CONUS.
   While extended model discrepancy exists, fire weather concerns will
   likely continue next week in regions that have seen minimal
   precipitation.

   ...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains - Day 3/Thursday through
   Day 6/Sunday...
   On Day 3/Thursday, southwesterly flow aloft and subsequent lee
   surface troughing will support a continued fire weather threat as
   dry and breezy southwesterly surface flow extends into the
   upper-central High Plains. Southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph combined
   with RH hovering around 15 percent are expected across portions of
   the southern Plains, with 40% probabilities of Critical fire weather
   conditions maintained. North of a region of forecast precipitation
   on Day 1/Tuesday - Day 2/Wednesday, 40% Critical probabilities have
   been introduced across eastern WY, southern SD, and northern NE.
   This is to account for 15-25 percent RH and southwesterly winds of
   15-20 mph atop drying fuels. However, increasing mid/high level
   clouds may dampen the bimodal fire environment to some extent,
   precluding the introduction of 70% Critical probabilities at this
   time.

   A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the
   central CONUS by Day 4/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak
   and deepening surface cyclone across the central Plains will aid in
   stronger west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. 70%
   Critical probabilities have been maintained for Day 4/Friday across
   much of east/southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and parts of West
   Texas where extended guidance agreement portrays combined
   probabilities of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph
   winds, and the potential for an incoming cold front that may further
   exacerbate the fire environment.

   On Day 5/Saturday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may
   arise in a dry post-frontal airmass, though uncertainty in frontal
   timing and overlap of stronger winds and lower RH precludes the
   introduction of probabilities at this time. As the amplified upper
   trough exits the region on Day 6/Sunday, surface troughing across
   High Plains and surface high pressure centered over east TX will
   promote dry return flow for much of the region. Given the overall
   pattern and ensemble guidance agreement in low RH and stronger
   winds, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced.

   ...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont - Day 3/Thursday through Day 6/Sunday...
   On Day 3/Thursday, a leading shortwave will aid in the breakdown of
   the upper ridge across the East Coast. However, precipitation
   chances are minimal east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, maintaining
   dry conditions. Southwesterly winds of up to 10 mph and 25-35
   percent RH atop receptive fuels support the introduction of 40%
   Critical probabilities across the region. As the East Coast upper
   ridge breaks down ahead of the deepening upper trough over the High
   Plains on Day 4/Friday, the potential for a downslope wind event
   exists in the lee of the Appalachians. Strong west/northwesterly
   winds will traverse the Blue Ridge Mountains allowing for surface RH
   to drop as surface winds increase along the Piedmont, promoting the
   introduction of 40% Critical probabilities. On Day 5/Saturday, dry
   southwesterly flow returns to the Piedmont and broader Southeast as
   the surface low enters southern Ontario. With no expected
   precipitation across the region, 40% Critical probabilities have
   been introduced where dry and breezy conditions continue atop dry
   fuels. Chances for precipitation increase on Day 6/Sunday as the
   upper trough moves overhead, which could alleviate broader fire
   concerns. However, the extent of wetting rainfall is uncertain,
   precluding the introduction of probabilities at this time.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/14/2026