ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130615

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains
   through the day on Saturday. This will mix a dryline eastward across
   portions of central and south Texas by afternoon. To the west of
   this dryline along the Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to gust
   to 25-30 mph along with RH rapidly decreasing to near 15-25% in the
   presence of dry fuels. Currently, it appears as though most of the
   precipitation through Saturday evening will remain to the north and
   east of this region, though some light precipitation may fall on
   Saturday morning. This represents some uncertainty as to the overall
   fire weather risk, however, given the dry antecedent conditions,
   will introduce an Elevated area across portions of the Rio Grande
   Valley.

   ..Supinie.. 02/13/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122201

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0401 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   Very active upper and mid-level flow will persist across CONUS
   through the extended forecast period. An upper trough and associated
   surface low will move from the southern High Plains early Day
   3/Saturday eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through
   Day 4/Sunday. Another upper-level trough enters the West on Day
   5/Monday, progressing east over the Central and Southern High
   Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
   expected this weekend and early next week, given persistent strong
   mid-level flow and increasing western US troughing. 

   ...Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley: Day 3/Saturday...
   Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 3/Saturday
   afternoon/evening as the mid/upper-level trough impinges on the area
   and an associated surface low strengthens over the Southern Plains.
   Precipitation on Day 3/Saturday will likely be localized and fairly
   minimal in the early afternoon hours before a dryline shifts
   southeastward. As such, the aforementioned area could see RH values
   between 15-25 percent and west-northwesterly surface winds of 15-25
   mph for a few hours in the late afternoon. A 40% probability of
   Critical fire weather conditions are maintained where the dry and
   breezy conditions will likely overlap dry fuels.

   ...Central and Southern High Plains, Texas Rio Grande Valley: Day
   4/Sunday...
   Fire weather conditions are expected to increase across portions of
   the Central High Plains as a mid-level trough approaches from the
   west and a surface lee cyclone strengthens. A region of strong
   mid-level flow combined with surface low pressure east of the
   Rockies will support strong surface winds, especially if deep mixing
   occurs. A 40% probability of Critical fire weather conditions has
   been introduced for parts of CO, WY and NE where dry westerly
   downslope winds will overlap dry fuels. 

   There is some uncertainty in the overall extent and amount of
   precipitation on Day 2/Friday and Day 3/Saturday, precluding the
   introduction of probabilities for the Southern High Plains. However,
   low RH and strong southwesterly winds are expected and may lead to
   future highlights as confidence increases in rainfall placement and
   amounts. Additionally, lingering dry and strong northwesterly
   surface winds in the Texas Rio Grande Valley may generate locally
   enhanced fire weather conditions on Day 4/Sunday. 

   ...Southern High Plains: Day 5/Monday...
   Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 5/Monday as a blended
   setup of downslope winds and dry return flow develop behind lee
   troughing. Increasing surface southwesterly flow and low relative
   humidity could support increasing fire weather potential, though as
   mentioned in D4/Sunday, the extent and amount of precipitation over
   the weekend precludes the introduction of probabilities. 

   ...Central and Southern High Plains: Day 6/Tuesday...
   A secondary mid-level trough will move from western CONUS across the
   Rockies into the Central and Southern High Plains region. Robust
   mid-level flow atop a deepening surface low will bring very strong
   winds across the Central and Southern High Plains. Downslope winds
   and critically low RH values could overlap dry fuels that may not
   receive rainfall earlier in the forecast period, lending to the
   introduction of a 40% probability for Critical fire weather
   conditions in the Southern Plains. Given the uncertainty in wetting
   rainfall potential and the extent of daytime cloud cover, changes to
   probabilities are possible in future outlooks. 

   ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday...
   Varying model trends and significant timing differences lend to
   lower predictability in the latter part of the forecast period.
   However, the pattern hints at a continuation of potential critical
   fire weather conditions later in the week. Nonetheless, this is
   conditional upon fuel moisture given the possibility of rainfall
   earlier in the forecast period.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/12/2026