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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 220554
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. An
upper-level low and associated showers and thunderstorms across the
Great Basin will push northeastward through today, farther into the
Intermountain West. A corridor of stronger southwest winds under
enhanced mid-level flow aloft is expected over portions of northern
AZ, eastern UT and southern WY, but marginal fuels and limited
overlap with low RH will suppress fire weather concerns over this
region. A return of deeper subtropical moisture into the Southwest,
together with an embedded MCV moving into southern AZ/NM later today
should translate to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
(including heavy rain) across portions of NM and eastern AZ today,
diminishing the overall fire weather threat. Receptive fuels persist
across portions of the Southern Plains and lower MS River Valley
where widespread rainfall has been limited. However, a slightly
cooler, post-frontal air mass and light winds under a ridge aloft
should prevent a broader fire weather risk for today.
..Williams.. 09/22/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 220556
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Reduced fire weather concerns will linger into D2/Wednesday. Surface
lee troughing is expected to evolve across the Northern High Plains
as an upper-level trough translates northeastward into ND and high
pressure settles into Ontario/Quebec. A resultant corridor of south
winds of 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph) are expected over much of the
Great Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Marginal fuels coupled with
limited RH reductions should inhibit broader fire weather concerns
across the region. Dry conditions including RH nearing 15% during
peak afternoon heating will persist across CA and the Great Basin in
the wake of a departing upper-level trough. However, marginal fuels
and light surface winds precludes fire weather highlights.
..Williams.. 09/22/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 212102
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
...Discussion...
An upper low will transition into the Great Lakes region and Ohio
Valley on Day 3/Thursday, supporting precipitation chances and much
cooler temperatures along/east of the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a
shallow cold front will slowly progress southward through southern
Texas and the Deep South. Hot and mostly dry conditions will
continue across the lower Mississippi Valley through the forecast
period as upper ridging rebuilds over the ArkLaTex, contributing to
forecast ERCs approaching the 90-95th percentile; but, prevailing
light winds should suppress overall fire weather concerns.
Guidance is in general agreement for ridging to build over the
central CONUS late in the workweek as an upper trough evolves across
the Eastern Pacific and impinges upon the Northwest. The overall
pattern indicates stronger southwest winds may return to the
portions of the northern Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, and
Northern Rockies on Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday; however, an expected
marginal fuelscape should limit a broader fire weather threat. If
fuels guidance trends drier, critical probabilities may be needed in
future outlook cycles.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/21/2026
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