ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060652

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level troughing will shift slowly eastward on Day 2/Monday,
   with modestly strong, southwesterly mid-level flow persisting across
   the Northern Rockies/northern High Plains. As this eastward shift
   occurs, an embedded shortwave trough will pivot northeastward across
   southern Idaho/western Montana, with a surface cyclone forecast to
   strengthen through the day across the northern Plains. This will
   support dry, downslope flow and elevated fire weather concerns
   across portions of the northern High Plains.

   ...Southern/southeastern Montana into central/northern Wyoming...
   As the aforementioned surface low deepens over eastern Montana/the
   northern Great Plains, a strengthening surface pressure gradient
   will support dry, downslope flow across portions of
   southern/southeastern Montana and central/northern Wyoming. Westerly
   surface winds of 15-25 mph will overlap very low RH of 15-25% and
   receptive fuels (ERCs ranging from the 80th to 95th percentiles),
   supporting elevated fire weather concerns. Deep boundary layer
   mixing and strengthening low- to mid-level flow will also promote
   the potential for wind gusts up to 30-40 mph (perhaps higher in
   favored terrain areas and/or along exposed areas of higher
   elevation). Locally critical conditions may be possible should
   minimum RH values fall below 15%; however, uncertainty remains
   regarding the magnitude of RH reductions across the region,
   especially given potential impacts from lingering cloud cover as
   well as some potential for rain chances on Day 1/Sunday.

   ..Chalmers.. 09/06/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052054

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

   Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

   ...Discussion...
   An upper shortwave trough will eject from the Intermountain West
   into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early next week, allowing
   high pressure to retrograde into the western CONUS through Day
   5/Wednesday. Meanwhile, persistent ridging over the southern Plains
   will continue to promote above normal temperatures and dry
   conditions through the forecast period, although accompanied by
   relatively light surface winds. Predictability wanes beyond Day
   6/Thursday with disagreement in extended ensemble guidance on the
   evolution of the upper pattern -- particularly with eastern Pacific
   troughing and the remnants of Hurricane Marie. However, members are
   generally in agreement for another shortwave trough to sag into the
   Pacific Northwest from British Columbia on Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday,
   transporting cooler temperatures and precipitation chances to the
   region. 

   As the aforementioned upper trough translates northeastward through
   Day 4/Tuesday, advecting subtropical moisture will provide
   opportunities for accumulating rainfall along the Central
   U.S./Canadian border. Despite somewhat cooler daytime temperatures,
   a drier airmass and strong southwesterly flow aloft should bring
   fire weather concerns back into the north-central states early next
   week. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced across parts
   of the northern Plains on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday where RH values of
   less than 20% and gusty winds of 15-20 mph will overlap
   rainfall-neglected fuels (and forecast ERCs remain at the 80-95th
   percentiles).

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/05/2026