ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200649

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge encompassing
   much of the central and western CONUS, ample midlevel moisture will
   be in place atop a warm and dry air mass across parts of northern CA
   into OR. This will yield inverted-V profiles with weak (albeit
   sufficient) buoyancy for isolated high-based thunderstorms across
   the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Given relatively
   weak large-scale forcing for ascent, the greatest confidence in
   thunderstorm development is over the Cascades in southern/central
   OR. While 0.8 to 1.2 inch PW may promote a mix of wet/dry storms,
   relatively fast storm motions and the dry boundary layer should
   limit rainfall. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions
   will be possible. Elsewhere across the CONUS, minimal fire-weather
   concerns are expected.

   ..Weinman.. 07/20/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192139

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0439 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   The extended forecast period exhibits a critical fire weather
   pattern for the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California.
   A broad mid-level ridge will dominate over much of Intermountain
   West through early this week as troughing across the northeastern
   U.S. amplifies midweek. Model guidance suggests better chances of
   dry thunderstorm impacts for the Pacific Northwest on Days
   3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday as moisture from tropical storm Elida gets
   wrapped up along the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge. On
   Day 5/Thursday, an incoming upper trough and influence from tropical
   storm Elida are expected to contribute to the breakdown of the upper
   ridge. As strong southwest-westerly flow overlaps the northwestern
   U.S., a returning dry airmass and gusty winds may encourage
   lightning holdovers to emerge where dry fuels exist.

   ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday...
   The thunderstorm threat across CA and the Pacific Northwest remains
   very sensitive to the expected track of a subtropical moisture plume
   from tropical storm Elida. Thunderstorms are forecast for northern
   CA and portions of the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday, and
   increasing in coverage on Day 4/Wednesday. While forecast PWATs
   range from 0.8-1.2", fast storm motions may limit precipitation
   efficiency, generating greater ignition potential as the fuelscape
   remains receptive. Localized accumulating rainfall is possible with
   wetter thunderstorms, especially areas that receive multiple rounds
   of rainfall. For this outlook, 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities
   were introduced on Day 4/Wednesday as extended guidance has trended
   towards maintaining a dry boundary layer and ample instability.
   Probabilities may be adjusted in future outlooks as the upper
   pattern is better resolved.

   ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday...
   Following several days of mixed wet/dry thunderstorm potential,
   longer term ensemble guidance suggests a return to dry and breezy
   conditions across portions of CA and the Pacific Northwest beginning
   Day 5/Thursday. Ensembles suggest the upper trough will strengthen
   across the northwestern U.S. on Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, prompting
   an expansion of 40% Critical probabilities.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026