|
U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 251623
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
No changes were made to the existing fire weather outlook as a broad
elevated fire weather threat commences over the northern Great
Basin. West-southwest winds ahead of a cold front currently moving
through northern CA into eastern OR will accelerate through the
early afternoon hours across much of northern NV into adjacent
southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Ample insolation aside from a
few high clouds will promote a well-mixed boundary layer by
mid-afternoon leading to west-southwest winds of 15-20 mph with
higher gusts. These winds combined with dry conditions including RH
as low as 15% will support an elevated fire weather threat over
sufficiently dry fuels. A more limited fire weather risk is expected
across far northwestern NV into southeastern OR as the front
progresses southeastward through the day ushering in a
west-northwest wind shift, increasing surface dewpoints/RH and
additional cloud cover.
..Williams.. 09/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving eastward across
the Northwest, 40-50-kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow will
overspread the northern Great Basin today. Downslope-aided warming
and drying will promote deep boundary-layer mixing, allowing
stronger flow aloft to efficiently mix to the surface ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front. As a result, a corridor of 15-20 mph
sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will combine with 15-20
percent RH across parts of northern NV, southeastern OR, and
southwestern ID this afternoon. Given at least modestly receptive
fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected.
A northerly wind shift is expected behind the cold front this
evening, though weaker post-frontal wind speeds should limit
additional fire-weather concerns.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 251924
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
A mid-level trough in the northwestern CONUS will contribute to a
corridor of dry southwest flow over the southern/central Great Basin
Saturday. Although south-southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph
and RH reductions in the 15-20% range are expected across
southern/central Nevada, recent rainfall and marginal fuels still
precludes introduction of Elevated highlights for this event.
..Williams.. 09/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will gradually amplify over the West on Saturday
afternoon, resulting in strengthening deep-layer southerly flow
across parts of the southern and central Great Basin. Deep
boundary-layer mixing will support south-southwesterly surface winds
of 15-20 mph amid afternoon RH of 15-20 percent. While locally
elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across
southern/central NV, marginal fuels should generally limit
fire-weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252121
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0421 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
A weakening coastal low will likely bring additional widespread
precipitation to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
early next week while an upper-level trough amplifies across the
western U.S. Dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great
Basin are expected on D3/Sunday within a strengthening southwest
flow regime as the upper trough evolves. Northward transport of
abundant remnant moisture from ongoing eastern Pacific tropical
cyclone activity aided by the upper trough/low, is likely to promote
widespread precipitation as far west as interior CA into much of the
Southwest for Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. Deeper moisture and related
rainfall moves in the southern/central Plains Days
6-7/Wednesday-Thursday as the upper trough progresses slowly
eastward, providing temporary relief to an existing dry fuelscape.
This pattern could also promote a period of dry, offshore flow
across southern CA as early as D4/Monday. However, forecast
uncertainty in expected upper trough position and potential rainfall
reduces predictability of impacts.
...Day 3/Sunday - Great Basin...
A strengthening upper trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and
northern CA will bolster mid-level southwest flow over the Great
Basin on Day 3/Sunday. A corridor of stronger southwest winds (20-25
mph), southeast of a stalled frontal boundary amid RH reductions as
low as 10% is likely by Sunday afternoon. This will promote a fire
weather threat over sufficiently dry fuels across portions of
central/eastern NV where 40% critical probabilities have been
introduced.
..Williams.. 09/25/2026
|