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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 050555
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
Stronger southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an advancing upper-level
trough will move into the Southern Plains through today. A cold
front trailing behind an elongated surface low over OK should stall
across the TX Panhandle and just south of the Red River Valley this
afternoon. Farther east, a deepening upper trough over Ontario and
Quebec and associated increasing southwesterly mid-level flow will
encroach into the Northeast today. At the surface, drier pre-frontal
southwest flow will affect much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
...Mid Atlantic...
Dry, southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving
cold front across the OH River Valley is expected across the Mid
Atlantic today. Limited boundary layer moisture, leading to RH
reductions of 20-30%, and sustained south/southwest winds of around
15 mph with higher gusts will evolve by mid-afternoon in the
Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. A zone of minimal rainfall has resulted
in lingering fuel dryness across northern NC into much of central
and eastern VA. Elevated fire weather highlights where added to the
aforementioned area where most likely alignment of dry and breezy
conditions and dry fuels exist.
...West Texas...
A 60-65 knot mid-level jet in advance of an upper trough will eject
into the Southern Plains today. A cold front will stall across the
northwest TX, inhibiting dry, downslope enhanced westerly flow from
aligning with the more receptive fuels across the eastern TX
Panhandle into southwestern KS. Breezy west winds of 15-25 mph amid
relative humidity of around 15% are still expected across much of
west TX. However, recent wetting rainfall in the region has
mitigated the overall fuelscape, limiting impact from an otherwise
elevated fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 05/05/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 050557
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An elongated upper-level trough deepens across the Great Lakes into
the Southwest Wednesday, with a broad corridor of stronger mid-level
winds over the Southern Plains. A related cold front stretching
southwestward from the Northeast into TX gradually advances east
through Wednesday afternoon before a marked southward acceleration
takes place overnight across TX. A drying and warming trend
commences Wednesday across the Intermountain West as an upper ridge
pushes into the West Coast.
...Southern New Mexico into West Texas...
Stronger mid-level flow will linger across portions of the Southwest
and TX as a more robust jet core of 75-80 knots shifts into the OH
River Valley. Stronger westerly winds of 15-25 mph south of an
advancing cold front over the TX Panhandle and enhanced downslope
drying should yield 15% RH or less across much of southern NM into
West TX. However, recent rainfall has moderated fuels across this
region, mitigating the overall fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 05/05/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 042130
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
An expansive positively-tilted upper trough will extend across the
Southwest to the Great Lakes region with an embedded shortwave over
the Rockies on Day 3/Wednesday. Concurrently, a broad upper-level
low over eastern Canada will encourage unsettled weather across the
Northeast with a cold front transporting plentiful moisture to
portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through Day 5/Friday.
Broader fire weather concerns may temporarily be dampened for much
of the eastern U.S. for the duration of the forecast period, given a
widespread transition to green up and expected appreciable
precipitation. An upper ridge will build across the Pacific
Northwest mid-week, resulting in above normal temperatures and dry
conditions to prevail for much of the western U.S. through the
weekend.
On Day 3/Wednesday, the upper trough will migrate atop the southern
Plains and West TX as an area of surface convergence develops east
of the Front Range. This feature is expected to send a cold front
through the TX Panhandle, while downslope westerly winds and a dry
airmass persists over West TX. Recent plentiful rainfall and
marginal fuels precludes the introduction of probabilities.
Beneath an upper ridge and northwesterly flow aloft, above normal
temperatures and a dry airmass will remain over much of the western
CONUS with sporadic areas of breezy conditions. Localized fire
weather concerns may emerge where terrain-induced winds and dry
fuels align. Farther east, persistent upper-level troughing over the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest will shunt most moisture chances
south of the area. Mostly dry and occasionally breezy conditions
will prevail, promoting localized fire weather concerns where fuels
remain dry and the green up transition has not yet occurred.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/04/2026
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