ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 110651

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   On the backside of a robust midlevel trough and attendant surface
   low moving eastward from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest
   and eventually the Great Lakes, strong deep-layer northwesterly flow
   will overspread a well-mixed post-frontal air mass over the
   upper/middle MO Valley during the day. While RH reductions will be
   modest in the post-frontal air mass (around 25-30 percent), 20-25
   mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will
   compensate and support elevated to locally critical fire-weather
   conditions -- given dry/receptive fuels. If guidance trends any
   lower with RH reductions, a targeted Critical area could eventually
   be warranted.

   ..Weinman.. 05/11/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A more active upper-level wave pattern emerges later this week
   across the CONUS. The upper ridge responsible for near record
   setting heat early this week will shift into the central U.S. by
   Thursday, saddled by an amplifying trough across the eastern U.S.
   and another trough moving into the western states Days
   4-5/Wednesday-Thursday, the latter of which will bring broader fire
   weather concerns to a drying fuelscape across the West. Forecast
   uncertainty increases as the weekend approaches with a more diffuse,
   perhaps zonal, pattern returning to the CONUS.

   ...Day 3/Tuesday - Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
   Dry, post-frontal flow in the wake of a deep surface low across the
   Great Lakes will bring a fire weather threat to portions of the
   Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where frontal precipitation is
   minimized and critically dry fuels remain. RH reductions will be
   limited to 20-30% but northwest winds of 15-25 mph over receptive
   fuels, supports a continuation (and slight expansion based on latest
   model guidance) of 40% critical probabilities across the region.

   ...Day 4/Wednesday...
   ...Southern Great Basin and Southwest...
   Fire weather concerns increase across portions of the Southwest and
   Great Basin ahead of an advancing upper trough and attendant
   increasing southwest flow aloft. Advection of mid and upper level
   Pacific moisture and supportive kinematic environment should support
   some high-based showers and thunderstorms across much of the
   Intermountain West on Day 4/Wednesday. A 10% probability area for
   dry thunderstorms has been introduced where fuels are expected to be
   driest, reaching the 90th percentile by midweek under a few days of
   abnormally warm temperatures. Farther west, drier southwest flow
   should impact much of the eastern Great Basin and upper CO River
   Basin regions allowing for a heightened fire weather concern under a
   drying/curing fuelscape. A slight expansion of existing 40% critical
   probabilities has been made into the AZ Strip area.

   ...Northeastern Montana...
   A deepening surface low in the lee of the Northern Rockies will
   promote stronger southerly flow over the northern High Plains on Day
   4/Wednesday. Existing dry fuels amid a southerly dry return flow
   will combine to bring enhanced fire weather concerns to northeastern
   MT, where 40% critical probabilities have been introduced.

   ..Williams.. 05/10/2026