ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 101859

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   Tomorrow's (Wednesday) fire weather forecast remains on-track.
   Please see the previous discussion below for additional information.

   ..Elliott/Garcia.. 02/10/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper ridging will persist over the Plains as a mid-level trough
   amplifies off of the East Coast, and another upper trough impinges
   on the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Surface high pressure will
   remain in place east of the Mississippi River, with surface
   troughing and some moist return flow likely over the Plains. The
   overall large-scale pattern suggests that quiescent fire weather
   conditions will be the norm across the CONUS on Wednesday, with no
   fire weather highlights needed.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102131

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   A progressive mid/upper-level pattern is forecast to remain over the
   CONUS through early next week. The combination of an enhanced area
   of zonal mid-level flow over the Rockies on Day 3/Thursday coupled
   with a shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains will
   encourage development of a weak lee surface low. Thereafter, the
   trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward, reaching the
   Southern Plains Day 5/Saturday and the Southeast Day 6/Sunday.
   Another substantial mid/upper-level trough is forecast to come
   onshore across the Western U.S. late this weekend into early next
   week.  
    
   ...Southern High Plains: Day 3/Thursday...
   Gusty and dry westerly downslope surface winds are expected to
   develop Day 3/Thursday afternoon across portions of New Mexico into
   the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. At least a few hours of Elevated to
   locally Critical fire weather conditions appear likely amidst
   critically receptive fuels before a cold front (and associated
   northerly wind shift) move through the area during the overnight. 

   ...Rio Grande Valley and South Texas: Day 5/Saturday - Day
   6/Sunday...
   Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 5/Saturday
   afternoon/evening as the aforementioned mid/upper-level trough
   impinges on the area and an associated surface low strengthens over
   the Southern Plains. While some uncertainties remain regarding
   precipitation placement on Day 2/Wednesday and also Day 5/Saturday
   and its impact on fuel status, ensemble guidance continues to
   suggest a relative minimum in precipitation across portions of South
   Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. A 40% probability of Critical fire
   weather conditions was introduced where locally Critical conditions
   currently appear most likely. Fire weather concerns may linger into
   Day 6/Sunday, though confidence is currently too low to introduce
   Critical probabilities. 

   ...Southwest and the Southern/Central High Plains: Day 6/Sunday -
   Day 8/Tuesday...
   Fire weather conditions may increase across portions of the
   Southwest Day 6/Sunday and the High Plains Day 7/Monday into early
   next week as the aforementioned secondary trough (and enhanced
   mid-level flow) overspread the area and a surface lee cyclone
   strengthens. While fire weather highlights may eventually be needed,
   increasing model spread reduces confidence which precludes
   introducing Critical fire weather probabilities at this time.

   ..Elliott/Garcia.. 02/10/2026