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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 181632
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 1 Outlook. Receptive fuels and dry conditions
persist across the Southeast, but light winds should mitigate
widespread fire weather concerns.
...Georgia into the Carolinas...
A mid-level short wave trough evident in current water vapor imagery
and nearly collocated surface low will progress eastward into the
Ohio River Valley through today. Gulf moisture return will be
concentrated farther west along the lower MS River Valley with dry
conditions and afternoon relative humidity in the 20-30% range
across much of the Southeast. However, south/southeast winds will
remain light at or below 10 mph through the afternoon across GA and
the Carolinas where drier fuels are found, limiting a broader fire
weather threat.
..Williams.. 11/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025/
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather concerns are not expected for today across the
country, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the
Southeast and southern Appalachians this afternoon. Early-morning
satellite imagery depicts a weakening upper wave over the central
Plains. This feature, along with an attendant surface low, will
shift eastward into the OH Valley through this evening. Across the
West, another upper wave continues to drift southward along the CA
coast. Strong low-level winds are expected to accompany both of
these systems, however, increasing showers/thunderstorms coincident
with the breezy conditions will mitigate fire weather concerns.
Elsewhere, surface winds are expected to remain sufficiently benign
to limit the fire weather threat.
...Georgia into the Carolinas...
Dry conditions are expected to continue across GA into the Carolinas
for today. Southerly winds will help advect some returning moisture
into the region, but ensemble consensus is that RH minimums in the
20-30% range will be common once again. Surface high pressure will
limit wind speeds to mainly near/below 10 mph based on the 90th
percentile of recent HREF/NBM runs. However, a few locations,
especially at higher elevations, may see occasional gusts upwards of
15-20 mph that may support very localized fire weather concerns.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 181926
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to previous outlook with limited fire weather concerns
across CONUS. Rainfall deficits and dry/curing fuels remain across
the Southern Plains and central High Plains although a favorable
alignment of dry/breezy conditions appears unlikely Wednesday over
the region. Increasing flow aloft ahead of a mid/upper low across
southern CA and at least weak lee troughing across the central High
Plains should promote an increased wind potential across NM/TX
Panhandle area Wednesday afternoon. Latest forecast guidance still
depicts some clearing across northeastern NM/southeastern CO
vicinity which could support locally higher wind speeds up to 20
mph, although marginally low relative humidity of 25-30% will
mitigate overall fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 11/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025/
...Synopsis...
The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears limited
for Wednesday. Latest guidance shows reasonably strong agreement in
the eastward translation of the southern CA upper low into the Four
Corners region over the next 48 hours. Modest lee
troughing/cyclogenesis is expected as this occurs, but the low-level
wind response is expected to be fairly muted with around 10-15 mph
sustained winds across parts of the southern High Plains.
Additionally, scattered to widespread mid/high-level cloud cover is
anticipated, which will modulate diurnal heating and most likely
limit RH reductions to the 25-35% range. Recent ensemble guidance
hints that some mid-afternoon clearing is possible across far
northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles, which may be sufficient for
a pocket of sub-25% RH and winds between 15-20 mph. However, this
potential appears too limited/localized to warrant risk highlights
at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 182124
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the Southwest on Day 3/Thursday pivots
northeastward into the lower MS River Valley through Day 4/Friday.
Subsequent lee cyclogenesis across the Central Plains will maintain
moist low-level flow into the region. The moisture laden surface
trough along with upper-level support should promote widespread
wetting rains across much of the Southern Plains and eventually the
lower MS and OH river valleys through the end of the week, finally
reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Day 5/Saturday. This precipitation
event should largely drive a reduction in fire weather concerns into
the weekend, although some pockets of drier conditions and fuels
could remain particularly across far west TX and southern
GA/Carolinas regions.
Another upper-level trough bringing additional rainfall to CA and
the Desert Southwest Thursday and Friday migrates eastward, reaching
the lower CO River Basin by early next week. Surface trough
development across southern TX should supply a more robust low-level
moisture feed into the Southern Plains, aiding in additional
rainfall across the region Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, shifting eastward
into the lower MS River Valley by Day 8/Tuesday. Expected
precipitation across the Southern U.S. will mitigate the overall
fire weather threat through the extended forecast period.
..Williams.. 11/18/2025
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