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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 140629
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will approach the southern Plains today. At the
surface, a low will deepen in the central Plains. Dry return flow
will continue into the Mid-Atlantic.
...Southeast Colorado into central Plains...
A belt of stronger mid-level winds will overlap the region during
the afternoon. Coupled with the deepening surface low, winds of
20-25 mph appear possible with locally higher speeds in the
terrain-favored areas. RH 10-15% will occur in the High Plains with
greater potential for around 20% farther east. Winds may be equally
strong into Kansas, but the less favorable RH/cloud cover and recent
precipitation may modulate the overall fire weather risk.
...Southwest into southern High Plains...
Moderately strong mid-level winds will extend into the southern
Rockies. Cloud cover associated with the trough will tend to keep RH
higher in some locations, but around 20% east of the higher terrain
appears probable. Winds of 15-20 mph will promote an elevated fire
weather threat during the afternoon.
...Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont/Mid-Atlantic...
Dry return flow of 10-15 mph will occur during the afternoon. RH
will generally be 25-30% as temperatures rise into the mid/upper 80s
F. Very dry fuels in the region will support an elevated fire
weather threat.
..Wendt.. 04/14/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 140630
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough will continue eastward into the
Mid-South/Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Mid-level winds
across the southern and central High Plains will weaken through the
day. Only a modest lee trough is expected to develop during the
afternoon.
...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level winds will be waning through the day. Even so, a modest
lee trough will promote 15-20 mph winds within the region. RH could
be quite low. Some locations could reach as low as 10% with most
other areas reaching only 15-20%.
...Piedmont...
Temperatures may be slightly warmer than on Tuesday. Upper 80s to
near 90 appears possible. Dry air will remain in place. RH in the
lee of the terrain could fall to under 20% locally, though 20-25% is
more probable for most areas. Continued exceptional fuel dryness
will again support elevated fire weather during the afternoon.
...Southeast Wyoming...
Dry and breezy downslope winds are expected during the afternoon.
While meteorological conditions may support fire weather concerns,
there is potential for precipitation to occur on Tuesday which
lowers confidence in the overall risk.
..Wendt.. 04/14/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132202
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across eastern NM
and West TX on Day 3/Wednesday as the mid-level trough translates
eastward. Another pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest Day 4/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of the eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope
flow and a continued fire weather threat across the southern High
Plains Day 4/Thursday. A more widespread fire weather impact across
this region is expected on Day 5/Friday as the amplifying trough
moves into the central U.S. Farther east, upper-level ridging will
keep much of the Mid Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. dry through the
week. The exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated southerly
winds will pose a lingering fire weather threat across this region.
...Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday - Central/Southern Plains...
The central/southern High Plains will remain a focus for fire
weather concerns through this week with a dry, downslope regime
prevailing across the region. Southwesterly flow aloft and
subsequent lee surface troughing across the region will support
breezy west/southwest winds and low RH each afternoon on Days
3-5/Wednesday-Friday. On Day 3/Wednesday, a dry airmass of below 15
percent RH and sustained westerly winds of 10-15 mph will persist
behind the western OK dry line in the southern Plains. 40%
probabilities of Critical have been maintained to account for this
threat. On Day 4/Thursday, fire weather concerns persist with dry
and breezy southwesterly flow extending into southeastern CO,
maintaining 40% probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions.
However, passing mid/high level clouds may dampen the fire
environment to some extent, precluding the introduction of 70%
Critical probabilities at this time.
A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the
central CONUS by Day 5/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak
and deepening surface cyclone across the Central Plains will aid in
stronger west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line.
Although recent rainfall has mitigated wildfire spread potential in
some areas, several days of drying will allow more receptive fuels
to develop across the southern High Plains by the end of the week.
70% Critical probabilities have been introduced for Day 5/Friday
across much of east/southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and parts of
West Texas. This is to account for extended guidance agreement in
combined probabilities of less than 15 percent RH and greater than
20 mph winds, and the potential for an incoming cold front that may
further exacerbate the fire environment.
On Day 6/Saturday, a dry, post-frontal airmass will emerge in the
wake of the aforementioned surface cyclone. However, ensemble spread
remains high regarding wind speeds, precluding the introduction of
probabilities at this time.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/13/2026
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