U.S. Alerts
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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160704

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough will deepen as it moves into the southern
   Great Basin/Four Corners today and tonight. As the trough
   intensifies, an initially modest subtropical jet will strengthen
   across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
   strong low pressure system will deepen across SD as an associated
   cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Another
   shortwave trough will move over the eastern US bolstering low-level
   winds across parts of the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic.

   ...Central and Southern High Plains...
   As upper forcing from the approaching trough spreads over the
   Rockies into the plains, the surface low will deepen and move
   southeastward with the cold front. This should encourage a broad
   area of strong west/southwesterly downslope winds from eastern WY
   and SD, into parts of the central Plains. Sustained southwesterly
   winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH are
   expected atop very dry and receptive fuels, supporting critical fire
   weather concerns. Fire-weather conditions will gradually end
   overnight from north to south as the front moves south with the
   surface low.

   Farther south across OK/TX and NM, a surface pressure trough will
   encourage gusty westerly low-level flow. Sustained winds of 15-25
   mph are likely as the surface low gradually moves southward ahead of
   the cold front. Low RH is also expected (10-15%) owing to downslope
   trajectories and warm afternoon temperatures. While some areas have
   seen rainfall in the past few days, several days of poor humidity
   recoveries and gusty winds have allowed for significant drying and a
   broad area of critical fuels.

   ...Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic...
   Strengthening southwesterly flow at the base of the shortwave tough
   will encourage strengthening of a lee trough. This will aid gusty
   downslope winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon. Afternoon RH
   values will drop to 25-30%. With little recent rainfall and very dry
   fuels, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear
   likely. More localized fire-weather conditions could extend into
   southern and central PA. However, here increased RH and weaker winds
   amid areas of recent rainfall should limit broader concerns.

   ..Lyons.. 04/16/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160706

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS....

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
   an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
   Plains. A deepening surface low and a strong cold front will promote
   critical fire weather conditions over the southern Plains. A second
   shortwave impulse will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal
   temperatures and some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the
   central Appalachians and Carolinas.

   ...TX/NM...
   As the primary shortwave trough over the Great Basin begins to eject
   eastward, strong flow aloft will overspread the southern High
   Plains. The surface low in eastern CO is forecast to deepen as it
   lifts northeastward, dragging the front southward. Gusty southwest
   surface winds, bolstered by westerly flow aloft, will develop across
   eastern NM, into the TX/OK Panhandles by mid morning. Gusts of 30-40
   mph are possible. Warm temperatures west of the dryline will support
   RH minimums below 15%. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions
   are likely within dry fuels.

   Farther north, gusty post-frontal winds are possible over parts of
   southwestern KS and the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly
   through the day as temperatures cool. Brief elevated fire-weather
   conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry. The front
   will continue to move south into TX/OK/NM Friday afternoon and into
   the evening. This will likely result in a rapid wind shift which
   could locally exacerbate burning conditions briefly. Adjustments to
   the northern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas could also be
   necessary as uncertainty on frontal timing is reduced in subsequent
   updates.

   ...Central Appalachians...
   In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, flow aloft is
   forecast to weaken over much of the Appalachians. Still, residual
   westerly flow may encourage lee troughing, helping to bolster
   downslope winds to near 10 mph. With very warm/dry surface
   conditions expected with subsequent mid-level ridging, low afternoon
   RH is expected. This, in combination with no recent rainfall and
   critical fuels, should support a few hours of elevated fire-weather
   conditions from VA, into the western Carolinas.

   ..Lyons.. 04/16/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152153

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   On Day 3/Friday, an amplifying trough will move into the central
   U.S. as an associated mid-level speed max will intensify over the
   central Plains. Tightening surface pressure gradients and a strong
   cold front will promote a concentrated fire weather threat over the
   southern Plains. Across the eastern U.S., a shortwave impulse will
   aid in the upper ridge breakdown as the aforementioned trough
   traverses the Midwest. As above normal temperatures prevail,
   exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated winds will pose a
   lingering fire weather threat throughout the East through the
   weekend. Temporary ridging builds across the West on Day 4/Saturday
   as post-frontal surface flow drives a dry and breezy airmass across
   much of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest. On Day
   5/Sunday-Day 6/Monday, the upper ridge slides east of the Rockies as
   the upper trough exits eastern CONUS, promoting dry return flow over
   the Plains and post frontal winds in the Southeast. Towards the end
   of the forecast period, another deep trough is forecast to approach
   western CONUS. While model discrepancy exists in the extended, fire
   weather concerns will likely continue next week in regions that have
   seen minimal precipitation.

   ...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains - Day 3/Friday through
   Day 5/Sunday...
   An amplified upper-level trough approaches the central CONUS on Day
   3/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak and deepening lee
   surface troughing across the central Plains will aid in strong
   west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. 70% Critical
   probabilities have been trimmed slightly to account for quicker cold
   frontal progression than previously forecast. Combined probabilities
   of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph winds ahead of
   the front should maintain a critical fire weather threat. An abrupt
   wind shift of gusty northerly winds behind the aforementioned cold
   front has the potential to impact any new or ongoing wildfires
   through the evening hours.

   On Day 4/Saturday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may
   arise in a dry post-frontal airmass, though uncertainty in frontal
   timing and overlap of stronger winds and lower RH precludes the
   introduction of probabilities at this time. As the amplified upper
   trough exits the region on Day 5/Sunday, surface troughing across
   High Plains and surface high pressure centered over east TX will
   promote dry return flow for much of the region. Given the overall
   pattern and ensemble guidance agreement in low RH and stronger
   winds, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained.

   ...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont/Southeast - Day 3/Friday through Day
   5/Sunday...
   As the East Coast upper ridge breaks down on Day 3/Friday, the
   potential for a downslope wind event exists in the lee of the
   Appalachians. West/northwesterly winds will traverse the Blue Ridge
   Mountains allowing for surface RH to drop as surface winds increase
   along the Piedmont, resulting in a continuation of 40% Critical
   probabilities. On Day 4/Saturday, dry southwesterly flow returns to
   the Piedmont and broader Southeast as the surface low enters
   southern Ontario. With no expected precipitation across the region,
   40% Critical probabilities have been maintained where dry and breezy
   conditions continue atop exceptionally dry fuels. Chances for
   precipitation increase on Day 5/Sunday as the upper trough moves
   overhead, which could alleviate broader fire concerns. However, the
   extent of wetting rainfall is uncertain, precluding the introduction
   of probabilities at this time. On Day 6/Monday, post-frontal
   northeasterly flow may increase fire weather concerns across the
   Southeast as drought conditions worsen. However, uncertainty in
   precipitation chances along the front on Day 5/Sunday preclude the
   introduction of probabilities at this time.

   As a secondary upper trough develops over the western U.S. on Day
   6/Monday-Day 7/Tuesday, subsequent dry southerly flow over parts of
   the Southwest and lee surface troughing across the High Plains will
   continue broader fire weather concerns towards the end of the
   forecast period.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/15/2026
      




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