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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 131613
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Southeast...
A dry air mass associated with surface high pressure moving into the
Mid Atlantic will support minimum relative humidity as low as 15
percent across portions of the southeast and northern FL today.
Although dry fuels are present, a diffuse surface pressure gradient
will promote light winds of 10 mph or less across much of the
Southeast, limiting a broader fire weather threat. However, brief
and localized elevated fire weather concerns are still possible
across the coastal plains of GA/SC where sustained northeast winds
of 10 mph, relative humidity below 20 percent and dry fuels align.
...Southern Plains...
Increasing mid and upper-level moisture and associated cloud cover
ahead of a pronounced short wave trough entering the Southwest is
observed overspreading the Southern Plains. At the surface, lee
troughing across the central/southern High Plains continues to usher
in deeper boundary layer moisture from the Gulf into TX/OK. These
factors should largely subdue fire weather concerns today, with
wetting rains expected tonight into Day 2 across much of the
Southern Plains as the short wave ejects into the region.
..Williams.. 02/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet max will traverse
the southwestern CONUS through the day today, bringing mid-level
moisture from the Pacific. Additionally, with the lee troughing
across the southern high Plains, moist air is expected to surge
northward cross the southern Plains. This is expected to promote
widespread precipitation in these regions, minimizing fire weather
concerns. Elsewhere, surface high pressure associated with
northwesterly flow aloft should settle across the eastern CONUS, and
the light winds associated with the high pressure should keep fire
concerns minimal.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 131946
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Rio Grande Valley...
A mid-level trough and associated jet will move into the Southern
Plains Saturday. A corresponding deepening surface low across the
OK/TX Red River Valley will aid in pushing a trailing cold front and
attendant drier air mass into south-central TX by Saturday evening.
Substantial wetting rainfall should remain to the north of the Rio
Grande Saturday, although some uncertainty remains in RH reductions
lower than 20-25% by the afternoon. Confined elevated highlights to
lower elevations near the Rio Grande in south-central TX where RH is
more likely to reach 20% amid northwest winds of 15-20 mph in the
post-frontal environment.
..Williams.. 02/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains
through the day on Saturday. This will mix a dryline eastward across
portions of central and south Texas by afternoon. To the west of
this dryline along the Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to gust
to 25-30 mph along with RH rapidly decreasing to near 15-25% in the
presence of dry fuels. Currently, it appears as though most of the
precipitation through Saturday evening will remain to the north and
east of this region, though some light precipitation may fall on
Saturday morning. This represents some uncertainty as to the overall
fire weather risk, however, given the dry antecedent conditions,
will introduce an Elevated area across portions of the Rio Grande
Valley.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 122201
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
Very active upper and mid-level flow will persist across CONUS
through the extended forecast period. An upper trough and associated
surface low will move from the southern High Plains early Day
3/Saturday eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through
Day 4/Sunday. Another upper-level trough enters the West on Day
5/Monday, progressing east over the Central and Southern High
Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
expected this weekend and early next week, given persistent strong
mid-level flow and increasing western US troughing.
...Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley: Day 3/Saturday...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 3/Saturday
afternoon/evening as the mid/upper-level trough impinges on the area
and an associated surface low strengthens over the Southern Plains.
Precipitation on Day 3/Saturday will likely be localized and fairly
minimal in the early afternoon hours before a dryline shifts
southeastward. As such, the aforementioned area could see RH values
between 15-25 percent and west-northwesterly surface winds of 15-25
mph for a few hours in the late afternoon. A 40% probability of
Critical fire weather conditions are maintained where the dry and
breezy conditions will likely overlap dry fuels.
...Central and Southern High Plains, Texas Rio Grande Valley: Day
4/Sunday...
Fire weather conditions are expected to increase across portions of
the Central High Plains as a mid-level trough approaches from the
west and a surface lee cyclone strengthens. A region of strong
mid-level flow combined with surface low pressure east of the
Rockies will support strong surface winds, especially if deep mixing
occurs. A 40% probability of Critical fire weather conditions has
been introduced for parts of CO, WY and NE where dry westerly
downslope winds will overlap dry fuels.
There is some uncertainty in the overall extent and amount of
precipitation on Day 2/Friday and Day 3/Saturday, precluding the
introduction of probabilities for the Southern High Plains. However,
low RH and strong southwesterly winds are expected and may lead to
future highlights as confidence increases in rainfall placement and
amounts. Additionally, lingering dry and strong northwesterly
surface winds in the Texas Rio Grande Valley may generate locally
enhanced fire weather conditions on Day 4/Sunday.
...Southern High Plains: Day 5/Monday...
Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 5/Monday as a blended
setup of downslope winds and dry return flow develop behind lee
troughing. Increasing surface southwesterly flow and low relative
humidity could support increasing fire weather potential, though as
mentioned in D4/Sunday, the extent and amount of precipitation over
the weekend precludes the introduction of probabilities.
...Central and Southern High Plains: Day 6/Tuesday...
A secondary mid-level trough will move from western CONUS across the
Rockies into the Central and Southern High Plains region. Robust
mid-level flow atop a deepening surface low will bring very strong
winds across the Central and Southern High Plains. Downslope winds
and critically low RH values could overlap dry fuels that may not
receive rainfall earlier in the forecast period, lending to the
introduction of a 40% probability for Critical fire weather
conditions in the Southern Plains. Given the uncertainty in wetting
rainfall potential and the extent of daytime cloud cover, changes to
probabilities are possible in future outlooks.
...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday...
Varying model trends and significant timing differences lend to
lower predictability in the latter part of the forecast period.
However, the pattern hints at a continuation of potential critical
fire weather conditions later in the week. Nonetheless, this is
conditional upon fuel moisture given the possibility of rainfall
earlier in the forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/12/2026
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