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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 301621
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 301700Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move slowly north out of the central Rockies
into the northern Rockies. The resulting Pacific Northwest trough
and northern Gulf subtropical ridge will place much of Southwest
into the central US beneath broadly southwest flow. Morning water
vapor imagery suggests a developing mid-level wave/vorticity maximum
across northern Mexico, and this feature will quickly move northwest
within the mid-level flow.
Large scale fire weather concerns will be low on Day 1/Saturday as
regions with receptive fuels (Southwest/Great Basin) will largely be
removed from regions with stronger flow, and regions where flow
would support a fire weather concern, recent rainfall should
mitigate that threat.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 301817
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
The overall mid-to-upper-level pattern will once again be dominated
by a Pacific Northwest trough and a northern Gulf subtropical ridge.
Thus, despite broadly southwest mid-level flow across the Southwest
into the central US, the lack of overlap between areas of receptive
fuels and stronger flow will limit fire weather concerns except on a
localized basis.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 302154
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
A semi-stagnant synoptic pattern is expected to continue through the
extended forecast period. An upper low will hover over the Northwest
through Day 4/Tuesday meanwhile a blocking ridge remains over the
Central U.S. and Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure and associated
dry conditions amid light winds will dominate over the Great Lakes
through at least Day 5/Wednesday, before a possible pattern change
on Day 6/Thursday. A North Atlantic trough will persist along the
Eastern Seaboard before developing into an upper low as it moves
offshore on Day 5/Wednesday. Much of the Plains and Southeast will
continue to see opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with
deeper boundary layer moisture in place, keeping broader fire
weather concerns low.
The Northwest upper low will lift into southwestern Canada mid-week,
promoting a warming and drying trend across much of the
Intermountain West and Southwest through the period. Diffuse surface
pressure gradients will keep winds on the light side with above
normal temperatures and dry conditions supporting drying and curing
of fuels. An intrusion of deeper atmospheric moisture into the
Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday will promote increasing chances for
thunderstorms and appreciable precipitation in eastern NM. However,
extended guidance depicts moisture will be less significant west of
the Divide, with forecast soundings portraying a prominent dry
sub-cloud layer and PWATs of 0.5-0.8", allowing some possibility of
isolated dry thunderstorms to evolve. 10% probabilities for Dry
Thunderstorms have been introduced across far eastern AZ into
western NM to account for this threat.
As the blocking pattern continues through the middle of next week,
surface high pressure should reinforce warm and dry conditions
across the Great Lakes region. The upper ridge will begin to flatten
on Day 5/Wednesday as an upper low traverses southern Canada,
pushing surface high pressure farther southeast. Very warm daytime
temperatures and RH declining to near critical values on Day
6/Thursday could encourage fire weather concerns to emerge where
favorable fuels exist. However, misaligned breezy winds/critical RH
preclude the introduction of probabilities at this time, though
trends will be monitored in future outlook cycles.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/30/2026
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