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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210706

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are forecast today across
   much of the Southern Great Plains, with at least Elevated
   fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest Texas as well
   as southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. 

   ...South-Central Texas/Big Bend...
   Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are forecast
   this afternoon, with relative humidity as low as 15-20% and winds of
   15-20 MPH. Conditions in the western portion of the outlook area in
   the vicinity of Big Bend will tend to be drier and perhaps a little
   less windy (10-15 MPH), with the eastern portion in south-central
   Texas being more humid and windier (15-20 MPH). A narrow corridor of
   locally Critical conditions may exist within the gradient of these
   conditions, where the drier air and higher wind speeds overlap with
   receptive fuels. However, there was not enough confidence in a large
   enough spatial and temporal overlap of these conditions to warrant
   additional highlights at this time.

   ...Southwestern Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...
   Though surface temperatures will be relatively cooler this far north
   into the post-frontal airmass, daytime heating and mixing is
   forecast to raise surface temperatures into the mid-to-upper 40s F.
   Forecast profiles across the area are well mixed and very dry, with
   surface relative humidity of around 15% and winds of 10-15 MPH.
   Given the critically dry fuels across the area and recent wildfire
   activity, Elevated highlights have been introduced in this outlook.

   ..Halbert.. 02/21/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210706

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   As a cold front moves off the Atlantic/Gulf coasts, dry and breezy
   post-frontal conditions are forecast across much of the Southeast on
   Sunday. Relative humidity could get as low as 25%-30% across
   portions of northern Florida currently experiencing drought, with
   winds reaching 15-20 MPH. These conditions will support Elevated
   concerns for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon
   Sunday.

   ..Halbert.. 02/21/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202219

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0419 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   CORRECTED FOR TEXT ERROR

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level flow will amplify D3/Sunday as a trough deepens over the
   far Southeastern US and Atlantic Coast. Widespread rainfall across
   much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire weather
   concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited farther south
   across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern for FL where
   dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire weather
   threat for Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. The upper ridge will begin
   to break down D5/Tuesday, introducing dry return flow and downslope
   winds across the Central and Southern Plains, potentially increasing
   fire weather concerns through the extended period. 

   ...Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday - Florida and Southern Plains...
   Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
   behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
   trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
   3/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
   precipitation across FL. A mostly dry cold front will pass through
   the northern FL peninsula late morning D3/Sunday bringing post
   frontal northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH of 20-30
   percent. Coincident dry fuels should increase the fire weather
   threat for a few afternoon hours where 40% Critical probabilities
   have been maintained.

   As the upper-level trough deepens on D4/Monday, dry northwesterly
   flow is expected to continue with poor overnight RH recovery. 40%
   Critical probabilities have been expanded to northern FL where
   strong winds and critically low minimum RH will overlap dry fuels.
   While minimal rainfall is expected on D3/Sunday, uncertainty in
   amount and extent precludes the introduction of 70% probabilities
   for now. 

   Cooler dry return flow will enter the Southern Plains on D3/Sunday
   and D4/Monday. This will allow for continued drying of the
   fuelscape, setting the stage for increased fire weather concerns on
   D5/Tuesday.

   ...Day 5/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
   Fire weather concerns reemerge across portions of the central and
   southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
   winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
   starts to break down. 40% critical probabilities have been added
   where a combination of low RH and strong westerly winds overlap dry
   fuels in eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Beneath the upper-level
   ridge a surface low will emerge in the lee of the Laramie Range,
   tightening a surface pressure gradient across eastern WY and western
   NE. Very strong downslope winds may occur, though cooler
   temperatures and RH uncertainties have limited the introduction of
   70% Critical probabilities for now.

   ...Day 6/Wednesday - West Texas...
   40% Critical probabilities have been maintained across the West TX
   region as long-range models are hinting at hot, dry, and windy
   conditions atop dry fuels. Increasing northwest flow aloft and
   induced surface lee troughing will support increased fire weather
   concerns. 

   ...Day 7/Thursday - D8/Friday... 
   Uncertainty is too high for the extended period to introduce
   probabilities for Critical conditions. Nevertheless, as the
   upper-ridge flattens and multiple short-wave impulses cross central
   CONUS, the pattern may suggest an ongoing fire weather threat
   through the forecast period.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliott.. 02/20/2026
      




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