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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 150607
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN L.A. COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN VENTURA COUNTY...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over the central Plains will weaken and transition
to an open wave, quickly becoming absorbed within defined troughing
over the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a cutoff low will detach into the
Desert Southwest as surface high pressure migrates into the
Intermountain West and central CONUS. As a result, an increasing
offshore pressure gradient will promote a fire weather threat for
portions of southern CA that have not seen recent rainfall.
...Southern California...
The fire weather threat will increase markedly early this morning
into the early afternoon hours as offshore flow accelerates across
portions of southern CA. Resultant east-northeast winds of 15-25 mph
will emerge with related downslope drying from a dry airmass
originating from the Colorado Plateau, allowing for RH reductions as
low as 10%. A corridor of stronger east-northeast winds of 20-30 mph
with gusts of 40-50 mph coupled with low RH will support critical
fire weather conditions in the Simi Valley area of western L.A.
county and southeastern Ventura county.
...Sierra Nevada, portions of the Sacramento Valley and Napa
Valley...
Increasing easterly downslope flow and drying into the Sacramento
Valley will promote elevated fire weather conditions for the Sierra
Nevada foothills this afternoon. Poor overnight RH recoveries with
some locations not exceeding 30% will precondition fuels where ERCs
are at the 80-90th percentiles. East winds of 10-15 mph (locally
20-25 mph in favored valley corridors) and daytime RH of 15% will
support an Elevated fire weather threat.
A building ridge aloft supporting above normal temperatures and very
dry conditions along with offshore flow trajectories will bring a
fire weather threat to portions the Sacramento Valley and adjacent
Napa Valley area. North winds of around 15 mph in the Sacramento
Valley will transition to east-northeast over Napa Valley and nearby
coastal ranges as RH falls to as low as 10% by this afternoon.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/15/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150608
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN L.A. COUNTY...VENTURA
COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will progress over the eastern CONUS as a
surface low departs from New England. A substantial cold front will
sweep across the southeastern CONUS on Day 2/Friday, with dry
post-frontal flow bringing fire weather concerns to portions of the
lower MS River Valley. High pressure building in behind the cold
front along with a mid-level cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula will
continue to support offshore flow and a fire weather threat across
portions of CA.
...Southern California...
An offshore wind event will continue through Day 2/Friday across
much of southern CA, maintaining an Elevated fire weather threat. A
mid/upper cut-off low over the Baja Peninsula will aid in deep layer
easterly flow over the region, supporting surface winds of 20-30 mph
(gusts up to 40 mph in the valleys, possibly up to 60 mph in the
mountains) amid 10-15% RH. The long duration of these conditions
combined with poor overnight humidity recoveries will allow fuels to
become increasingly more receptive. Easterly winds will increase to
15-25 mph across the southern Sierra Nevada foothills into the lower
San Joaquin Valley amid minimum RH values of 15-20%.
The offshore pressure gradient will strengthen early in the forecast
period, likely at its final peak before gradually weakening into Day
3/Saturday. A corridor of sustained 20-30 mph winds and gusts up to
50 mph are expected across western L.A. county into Ventura and far
southeastern Santa Barbara county during the early morning hours of
Day 2/Friday, supporting the introduction of Critical highlights.
...Lower Mississippi River Valley and ArkLaTex Region...
A dry, post-frontal northerly wind will impact much of the Southeast
as surface high pressure builds into central Plains/Midwest. Dry and
receptive fuels remain across the lower Mississippi Valley where
drought proliferates, with ERC values ranging from the 80-90th
percentiles. Northerly sustained winds of 10-15 mph (perhaps up to
20 mph in localized areas) and RH as low as 25% will promote an
Elevated fire weather threat for a few afternoon hours.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/15/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142148
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will translate southeastward across the
eastern U.S. with a complimentary ridge building into the
Intermountain West through D4/Saturday. At the surface, a
substantial cold front will sweep across the Southeastern U.S., with
dry post-frontal flow bringing some fire weather concerns to
portions of the lower MS River Valley on D3/Friday, with fire
weather threat shifting farther south towards the Gulf Coast on
D4/Saturday. High pressure building in behind the cold front across
the central U.S. along with a mid-level cutoff low will continue to
support offshore flow and a fire weather threat across portions of
CA on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. Upper riding shifts into the
central U.S. while an upper trough approaches the West Coast early
next week. The trough and associated mid-level jet could bring dry
and breezy conditions into northeast CA and northern Great Basin
Monday but forecast uncertainty reduced predictability for this time
frame.
...Day 3-4/Friday-Saturday...
...Southern California...
An offshore flow pattern will persist across portions of southern CA
on D3/Friday as strong surface high pressure moves into the central
U.S. A mid/upper cut off low over the Baja Peninsula will continue
to aid in deep layer easterly flow over the region supporting
surface winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts in favored terrain
gaps. Cloud cover and higher humidity will temper effects of
stronger winds heading into the weekend. Despite improving RH, the
strong winds remain a primary concern with 40% critical
probabilities added to western L.A. county and eastern Ventura
county for D4/Saturday.
...Lower Mississippi River Valley and Arklatex Region...
A dry, post-frontal northerly wind will impact much of the Southeast
as surface high pressure builds into central Plains/Midwest through
D4 Saturday. This dry northerly flow with wind speeds of 10-20 mph
and RH as low as 25% will promote a fire weather threat primarily
over the Lower MS River Valley and Arklatex region on D3/Friday. The
dry and breezy conditions shift southward to encompass much of LA
and southwestern MS by D4/Saturday where 40% critical probabilities
were introduced. Dry and receptive fuels remain where drought
proliferates, with ERC values reaching the 90th percentile by
Saturday across MS and much of southern LA.
..Williams.. 10/14/2026
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