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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 201638

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1038 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

   Valid 201700Z - 211200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
   INTO WEST TEXAS...

   ...Morning Update...

   A surface low will move across the NM higher terrain towards the
   northern TX Panhandle late this afternoon. While the region has much
   cooler daytime forecast temperatures, the deepening surface low will
   tighten surface pressure gradients leading to downslope westerly
   winds of 20-30 mph with daytime heating dropping relative humidity
   to 10-20 percent. Locally higher gusts are possible depending on
   deep mixing, as forecast soundings have strong 40-50 kt winds at the
   boundary layer. These conditions overlapping a mix of drier fuels
   support widespread Elevated and Critical fire weather across eastern
   NM, the OK Panhandle, and West TX this afternoon. 

   Additionally, far northeastern NM and the northwestern OK Panhandle
   could have the potential for a few isolated lightning flashes
   between 21z-00z. While the localized marginal nature coupled with
   cooler temperatures precludes the introduction of an Isolated Dry
   Thunderstorm area, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out given
   receptive fuels across the area.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliot.. 02/20/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   As a shortwave trough embedded in broader westerly flow progresses
   across the southern Rockies into the Southern Great Plains, dry and
   breezy downslope winds associated with a developing surface low will
   result in widespread Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns
   across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma
   Panhandle/West Texas. Relative humidity as low as 10-15% (drier with
   southward extent) coupled with 20-25 MPH winds will overlap a
   variety of fuel conditions, ranging from seasonal 60th percentile
   ERCs to 95th percentile. This will support wildfire spread with any
   ignitions during the afternoon.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201900

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...19z Update...

   Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions are expected
   for portions of central and southern TX Saturday afternoon. Daytime
   heating will drop relative humidity to 15-20% with northerly surface
   winds sustained between 10-20 mph (gusting up to 25 mph) atop dry
   fine fuels. A small corridor in the northern portion of
   South-Central TX may be more favorable for Critical fire weather
   conditions in recent model guidance. However, forecast soundings
   have some low-mid level cloud cover passing over the region during
   the daytime hours, and given uncertainties in stronger sustained
   winds, Critical highlights have been withheld for now. See the
   previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliot.. 02/20/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A dry and breezy post-frontal airmass associated with a jet maximum
   exiting the southern Plains will be responsible for at least
   Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest
   Texas on Saturday. Relative humidity of 15-20% is expected with
   northerly surface winds of 15 MPH (gusting to 20). While there is
   generally a gradient of fuel readiness across the area, with drier
   fuels in the west, these conditions will still pose an Elevated
   threat for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202219

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0419 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   CORRECTED FOR TEXT ERROR

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level flow will amplify D3/Sunday as a trough deepens over the
   far Southeastern US and Atlantic Coast. Widespread rainfall across
   much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire weather
   concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited farther south
   across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern for FL where
   dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire weather
   threat for Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. The upper ridge will begin
   to break down D5/Tuesday, introducing dry return flow and downslope
   winds across the Central and Southern Plains, potentially increasing
   fire weather concerns through the extended period. 

   ...Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday - Florida and Southern Plains...
   Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
   behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
   trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
   3/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
   precipitation across FL. A mostly dry cold front will pass through
   the northern FL peninsula late morning D3/Sunday bringing post
   frontal northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH of 20-30
   percent. Coincident dry fuels should increase the fire weather
   threat for a few afternoon hours where 40% Critical probabilities
   have been maintained.

   As the upper-level trough deepens on D4/Monday, dry northwesterly
   flow is expected to continue with poor overnight RH recovery. 40%
   Critical probabilities have been expanded to northern FL where
   strong winds and critically low minimum RH will overlap dry fuels.
   While minimal rainfall is expected on D3/Sunday, uncertainty in
   amount and extent precludes the introduction of 70% probabilities
   for now. 

   Cooler dry return flow will enter the Southern Plains on D3/Sunday
   and D4/Monday. This will allow for continued drying of the
   fuelscape, setting the stage for increased fire weather concerns on
   D5/Tuesday.

   ...Day 5/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
   Fire weather concerns reemerge across portions of the central and
   southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
   winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
   starts to break down. 40% critical probabilities have been added
   where a combination of low RH and strong westerly winds overlap dry
   fuels in eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Beneath the upper-level
   ridge a surface low will emerge in the lee of the Laramie Range,
   tightening a surface pressure gradient across eastern WY and western
   NE. Very strong downslope winds may occur, though cooler
   temperatures and RH uncertainties have limited the introduction of
   70% Critical probabilities for now.

   ...Day 6/Wednesday - West Texas...
   40% Critical probabilities have been maintained across the West TX
   region as long-range models are hinting at hot, dry, and windy
   conditions atop dry fuels. Increasing northwest flow aloft and
   induced surface lee troughing will support increased fire weather
   concerns. 

   ...Day 7/Thursday - D8/Friday... 
   Uncertainty is too high for the extended period to introduce
   probabilities for Critical conditions. Nevertheless, as the
   upper-ridge flattens and multiple short-wave impulses cross central
   CONUS, the pattern may suggest an ongoing fire weather threat
   through the forecast period.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliott.. 02/20/2026
      




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