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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 031600
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
A surface front is oriented generally southeast to northwest from
western Oklahoma through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to along/near
the Front Range. No changes were made to the outlook, but there is
some uncertainty regarding elevated conditions developing in
north-northeastern portions of the Elevated area due to the frontal
position and expected southwest movement of it later today and
tonight. Additionally, locally elevated conditions may extend
through east/southeast portions of the Texas Panhandle. Please see
the previous discussion for more details.
..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough currently analyzed over the Great Basin
and Four Corners will eject eastward across the High Plains today.
At the surface, a deepening lee low will develop south/southeastward
from eastern Colorado into west Texas while high pressure builds
across the West. A southward trailing dryline coupled with stronger
flow aloft will enhance surface winds across portions of the
southern High Plains ahead of a southward moving cold front. When
coupled with dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions are expected over the
southern High Plains this afternoon.
...Southern High Plains...
As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate
height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a
trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern Colorado and New Mexico.
The developing lee surface cyclone will gradually sag
south/southeastward into west Texas into this afternoon.
Simultaneously, building high pressure across the West will couple
with the deepening low to enhance the surface pressure gradient
across the eastern New Mexico. Aided by modest mid-level winds, this
gradient is forecast to support sustained westerly winds of 15-20
mph during the afternoon, with downsloping and warm temperatures
yielding low humidity below 20%. When overlapped with areas of
abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of
elevated fire-weather conditions are probable this afternoon.
Some locally stronger winds (sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 25-30
mph) may develop with RH falling below 15% across portions of
eastern New Mexico for a few hours this afternoon. However, the
duration of sustained stronger winds is expected to be short as the
upper jet will gradually weaken as the mid-level trough ejects
farther to the east. Nevertheless, a few hours of near critical
conditions are possible across eastern New Mexico, with the greatest
potential expected to be along the northern edge of the Llano
Estacado and within the Canadian River Valley, where terrain may
favor local wind enhancements. A southward moving cold front will
bring an end to fire weather concerns through the overnight hours,
with increasing RH and an abrupt shift to northeasterly winds
accompanying the frontal passage.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 031840
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.
..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the
central Great Plains through D2/Wednesday as a more amplified
upper-level trough digs southeastward into the West. At the surface,
a weak cyclone will transition northeastward across the Midwest
along a nearly stationary boundary forecast to extend from far west
Texas northeastward into the Midwest and then eastward across the
Mid-Atlantic. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and modestly
increased RH within the post-frontal air mass are expected to temper
any fire weather concerns across much of the central and southern
High Plains. While a corridor of stronger sustained surface winds
(15-20 mph) is forecast ahead of the surface low from southern Texas
into the mid-Mississippi River Valley, richer low-level moisture
will maintain surface RH above 40-50% across region.
Meanwhile, a second surface cyclone will shift southeastward from
Alberta into southeastern Montana and may bring a brief period of
localized downslope winds to portions of the northern High Plains;
however, sustained winds are forecast to remain light (less than 15
mph) across any areas that do see decreased RH values of 20% or
less. Given the expected poor overlap of low RH and stronger
sustained winds, widespread fire weather concerns are not
anticipated at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 032141
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
An upper-level trough will track southeast and deepen over the
Intermountain West Day 3/Thursday with an associated surface cyclone
developing on the central High Plains. The flow aloft is likely to
split with an upper-level trough tracking northeast across the
central Plains into the Great Lakes Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday
and another upper low likely retrograding southwest over Baja
California by Day 5/Saturday. Forecast uncertainty increases late in
the period regarding the large-scale pattern, especially the
evolution of the cutoff low over northwest Mexico/southwest US.
...Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday: southern/central High Plains...
Southwest flow will increase on Day 3/Thursday behind a sharpening
dryline on the southern/central High Plains. Southwest sustained
surface winds of 15-30 mph gusting 25-50 mph amid minimum RH of
5-20% are expected across much of New Mexico, southeast Colorado,
far west Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwest Kansas.
Probabilities of critical conditions are highest across eastern New
Mexico into southeast Colorado. The eastern extent of
elevated/critical fire weather conditions will depend on the dryline
location, while the western extent will be limited due to less
receptive fuels. Forecast precipitation on Day 1/Tuesday night is
expected to limit elevated/critical fire weather conditions
along/east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristos for Day
3/Thursday, but this will be monitored in subsequent outlooks. High
clouds are also likely to overspread portions of the 40/70% risk
areas, which may help mitigate fire weather conditions.
The dryline will be a focus for Day 3/Thursday late afternoon and
evening thunderstorm development, with the potential for a narrow
corridor of dry thunderstorms from the Caprock into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. However, the
potential for upscale convective growth, a high PWAT/dewpoint
airmass adjacent to the dryline, and dryline placement/movement are
all sources of forecast uncertainty regarding an isolated dry
thunderstorm risk area.
On Day 4/Friday, the dryline will mix farther east with an
approaching cold front pushing southeast across the central Plains.
Between the dryline and cold front, another round of elevated to
critical fire weather conditions are expected, but the probability
of critical conditions are closer to 50%, thus precluding a 70% area
at this time. The northern/eastern portions of the 40% area are the
most uncertain due the previous day/night's (i.e., Day 3/Thursday)
rainfall, how far east the dryline will move, and the progression of
the approaching cold front.
..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/03/2026
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