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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 111654
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
...Southwest Florida...
Cooler but very dry post-frontal flow from the north is still
expected to bring elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns
to the southwest FL Peninsula through this afternoon. Elevated
highlights were maintained across the area as north winds of up to
15 mph and relative humidity in the 20-30% range contribute to an
increased wildfire spread potential amid moderately dry fuels.
...Southern and Central Plains...
Deep layer northwesterly flow occurring over the Rockies
in addition to surface troughing across the Central Plains will
support enhanced downslope winds and drying leeward of the
central/southern Rockies today. A slight expansion of elevated
highlights were made into the Denver metro area and adjacent
foothills where sustained winds of 15 mph and relative humidity as
low 15% will align with dry fuels. A similar expansion was made into
the Trans-Pecos region of TX. Otherwise, no changes to a more
expansive elevated fire weather threat across central TX/far
southern OK resulting from dry return flow on the western periphery
of a surface high pressure anchored over the southeastern U.S.
..Williams.. 11/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025/
...Synopsis...
On the backside of an amplified large-scale trough departing the
Eastern Seaboard, a dry (albeit cool) post-frontal air mass has
infiltrated the FL Peninsula. Here, a tight surface pressure
gradient and enhanced northerly low-level flow down the Peninsula
will yield dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern and
southwest FL during the afternoon. Around 10-15 mph sustained
northerly surface winds and 20-30 percent RH will favor elevated to
locally critical fire-weather conditions, given at least modestly
receptive fuels.
Farther west, a subtle/low-amplitude midlevel perturbation embedded
within moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the
central and southern Plains during the day. This will reinforce
surface troughing and a tight pressure gradient across the region.
On the eastern periphery of the surface trough, 15-20 mph sustained
south-southwesterly surface winds combined with 20-25 percent RH
will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
across the southern Plains. To the west, downslope warming/drying
amid the tight pressure gradient will also contribute to dry/breezy
conditions from the lee of the central Rockies into the central High
Plains. These conditions atop dry fuels will lead to a brief period
of elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon -- before
surface winds begin to weaken.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 111958
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level trough over the Northeast coupled with a surface high
pressure centered over the Deep South should promote a dry,
west-southwest flow over the Piedmont/Mid-Atlantic region on
Wednesday. However, a broader overlap of enhanced southwest winds of
around 15 mph and low relative humidity (30% or below) could be
limited across the region. Enhanced southwest winds around 15 mph
supported by a stronger surface pressure gradient over the
Mid-Atlantic will be displaced from drier conditions across southern
GA/northern FL, where relative humidity could fall below 20%. This
limited overlap as well as recent rainfall across the eastern U.S.
precludes introduction of Elevated highlights for this update.
..Williams.. 11/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025/
...Synopsis...
Along the northern periphery of a surface high centered over the
Gulf Coast states, a tight pressure gradient and shallow
boundary-layer mixing into a swath of enhanced flow aloft will yield
dry/breezy conditions across parts of the Southeast into the
Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. Around 25-30 percent RH and 10-15
mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds may favor locally
elevated fire-weather conditions over areas that missed out on
rainfall during the last few days.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 112143
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough and associated stream of mid/upper-level Pacific
moisture should bring substantial precipitation to the West Coast
through Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday. A mid-level ridge progressing
eastward into the central U.S. in tandem with a developing surface
trough across the central/northern Plains will promote a return of
relatively deeper Gulf moisture and warming temperatures into the
Southern Plains on Thursday, reaching the Upper Midwest by the
weekend via expansive moderate southerly/southwesterly low-level
flow. Dry conditions will persist in the central/southern High
Plains through at least Friday, with deeper return flow moisture
kept farther east. Fire weather concerns should be reduced overall
across the eastern U.S. as atmospheric moisture increases into the
weekend as more favorable Gulf return flow trajectories emerge.
...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday - Southern High Plains...
Dry conditions across the central U.S. will remain in place through
the end of the week as broad ridging builds over the region.
Persistent deep layer westerly flow over the Southwest and weak
surface lee troughing east of the Rockies will promote dry and
breezy conditions across eastern NM/TX Panhandle Thursday. Slightly
stronger winds on Friday should support a broader fire weather
threat in eastern NM/TX Panhandle where 40 percent critical
probabilities remain.
...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...
The central and southern Plains landscape remains dry, with
additional receptive fuels likely developing after recent frost
freeze events. However, considerable forecast uncertainty emerges
over the weekend regarding a potential cut-off low moving into the
Southwest. Fire weather concerns could extend into the weekend time
frame across the Southern Plains as accelerating mid-level flow over
the Southern Rockies and incipient lee troughing possibly emerge.
Increasing uncertainty from longer term ensemble and forecast
guidance, particularly with positioning/timing of the cut-off low
and associated stronger wind fields, precludes introduction of
critical probabilities into early next week.
..Williams.. 11/11/2025
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