ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 091913

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...Afternoon Update...
   The Elevated risk area was expanded into far south-central WA where
   recent guidance depicts an overlap of 10-20% RH and sustained
   westerly winds of up to 20 mph. Strong wind gusts of 25-30 mph are
   likely in terrain-favored areas along the Cascades and Sierra
   Nevada. In addition, locally critical conditions are possible across
   northwest NV/northeast CA. As daytime mixing ensues, and a 700 mb
   25-35 kt jet emerges aloft, occasional wind gusts of up to 35 mph
   may mix down to the surface. The rest of the forecast remains on
   track, see the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/09/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough will move towards and deepen offshore from the
   Pacific Northwest, while the upper high will shift eastward over
   southern California. Stronger mid-level winds will begin to
   overspread the Northwest with the onshore pressure gradient
   strengthening again as a Pacific cold front moves into the
   Northwest. Mid-level moisture that has been present across the Great
   Basin and Four Corners will continue to push east of the Front Range
   and suppressed southward to southern Arizona/New Mexico.

   Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across much of the
   Great Basin into the Four Corners. West-southwest sustained winds of
   12-20 mph amid minimum RH of 8-20% are likely to develop from
   central/eastern Oregon to the Four Corners. The strongest winds are
   likely across the Sierra Front and northwest Nevada into portions of
   southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. While winds will not be as
   strong across portions of central/northern Utah into western
   Colorado, locally elevated conditions are expected. Locally elevated
   conditions may extend into portions of southeast/eastern Idaho as
   well. 

   Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms are possible across
   portions of southeast Idaho, northern Utah, and northwest Colorado.
   While building to towering Cu are likely over the higher terrain,
   thunderstorm chances are less than 10%, with high-based convective
   showers with little to no rainfall reaching the ground more likely.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092200

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

   Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Strong upper troughing will persist over the Pacific Northwest
   through early next week, meanwhile amplifying ridging and southerly
   flow aloft will encourage monsoonal moisture to slowly translate
   northward into the Intermountain West. Ensembles do indicate the
   potential for thunderstorm development on Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday
   across portions of southern/central CA, the Sierra Nevada, and
   possibly the Bay Area, where preceding hot and dry conditions may
   increase fuel receptivity. Moisture will continue to spread into the
   Pacific Northwest and Great Basin mid-week. 

   ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday...
   High pressure will expand across the central CONUS this weekend,
   yielding near-record high temperatures and very dry conditions in
   the northeastern Great Basin and the northern Rockies. Beneath
   upper-level troughing and strong southwesterly flow, tight surface
   pressure gradients will promote gusty winds and critically low RH to
   overspread portions of the Pacific Northwest into the central ID and
   southwestern MT. While some uncertainty remains regarding fuel
   receptivity in the middle-higher elevations, 40% Critical
   probabilities were maintained where guidance depicts dry and breezy
   conditions amid forecast ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile.

   ...Dry Thunderstorm Potential...
   As the ridge strengthens and high pressure centers over the Greater
   Four Corners region, the upper pattern will favor the advection of
   monsoonal moisture northward where dry antecedent conditions have
   led to very dry/receptive fuels across portions of the Interior
   West. There remains quite a bit of spread in extended guidance,
   lending to forecast uncertainty in how far mid-level moisture will
   advect, and where sufficient instability will support thunderstorm
   development through next week. As a result, 10% probabilities for
   dry thunderstorms have been withheld for Day 4/Sunday and Day
   5/Monday; however, as predictability increases and additional
   guidance becomes available, probabilities may be introduced in the
   next outlook cycle.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/09/2026