U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 070654
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern
CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture,
as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much
of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns
should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While
overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest
into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the
surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights.
One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana.
Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with
widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely
during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the
aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching
the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been
introduced for far northeastern Montana.
..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 070705
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will deepen across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
region, promoting widespread showers/thunderstorms and/or the
overspreading of rich low-level moisture across much of the Plains
to the East Coast tomorrow (Sunday). As such, significant and
widespread wildfire-spread conditions should be limited across most
locales east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, dry conditions will
prevail across the Southwest tomorrow, though surface winds appear
too weak to warrant fire weather highlights. Widespread 20-25 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25 percent RH are likely
in a post cold-frontal regime over the northern High Plains tomorrow
(Sunday) afternoon. However, fuels in this region are less
receptive, and have received relatively more recent rainfall
compared to far northeast Montana. As such, fire weather highlights
have been withheld for now.
..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 062200
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the
extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to
transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into
early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will
intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains.
To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as
it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing
over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions
will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains,
Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper
fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in
the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy
conditions to emerge over the western US.
...Northern Plains/Rockies...
As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of
Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern
Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A
cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass
across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While
model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy
conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High
Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.
...Great Basin and Southwest...
The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting
the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing
to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and
Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to
model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several
preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing
potential for fire-weather conditions.
Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest
ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical
vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support
isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again
details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning
could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the
forecast period.
..Lyons.. 06/06/2025
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