ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 191921

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   The previously drawn elevated area in place over northeastern CA,
   northwestern NV, and southern OR was removed. While RHs will still
   fall to near 10-15%, the latest forecast guidance has trended weaker
   with winds during the afternoon across the region on Day 2/Thursday.
   Outside of localized terrain-enhanced wind, widespread afternoon
   winds of 10-15 mph are expected to remain below elevated thresholds.
   Thus, only brief and localized elevated fire environment conditions
   are expected over much of the Intermountain West on Day 2/Thursday
   afternoon.

   ..Stearns.. 08/19/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level troughing will persist over the northeastern CONUS on
   Day 2/Thursday, with an embedded mid-level shortwave yielding
   increased precipitation chances over a drought-stressed environment
   in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. The established upper ridge
   over the Great Basin will continue to amplify, delivering above
   normal temperatures and dry conditions to the Interior West.
   Meanwhile, an upper trough will deepen along the West Coast,
   ushering stronger southwesterly flow into the northwestern CONUS. 

   Across northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, and southern
   Oregon, daytime high temperatures will range from 90-100 F or
   greater amid 10-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly winds and RH
   values of 10-15%. These meteorological conditions will overlap a
   receptive fuelscape, promoting an Elevated fire weather threat. RH
   values of 15-20% and 10-20 mph southwesterly winds will also overlap
   portions of southeastern Nevada; however, recent monsoonal moisture
   has contributed to less receptive fuels, precluding the expansion of
   Elevated highlights.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 182148

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0448 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An established ridge over the Intermountain West will amplify and
   the pressure gradient will tighten on Day 3/Thursday as a trough
   approaches the west CONUS coast. A mid-level low pressure system
   will near the Pacific Northwest coast on Day 4/Friday as the
   upper-level jet max peaks over southern/central OR. This will
   provide widespread lift to portions of north-central OR and then
   much of central/eastern WA under the left exit region of the jet
   streak on the afternoon of Day 4/Friday. The trough will begin to
   lift northeastward as it becomes slightly negatively-tilted
   progressing into Day 5/Saturday. High pressure remains in place over
   much of the southwestern half of the CONUS with shortwave trough
   passages periodically moving across the crest of the high through
   the northern states. While slight differences in timing of the
   aforementioned trough remain, the overall pattern evolution remains
   similar amongst various ensemble forecast guidance. As we turn the
   corner toward next week, the ridge broadens and builds over the
   Intermountain West once again.

   ...Pacific Northwest/Northern California/Great Basin...
   The Pacific Northwest and immediately neighboring areas of northern
   California and the Great Basin will remain foci through at least the
   first half of the extended forecast. Starting on Day 3/Thursday and
   continuing through Day 5/Saturday, expect multiple consecutive days
   of gusty southwesterly winds combined with warm and dry weather as
   the aforementioned large trough approaches from the west.
   Near-normal conditions in the short-term followed by increasing
   above-normal temperatures Day 2/Wednesday through Day 4/Friday will
   culminate in a cold front passage on Day 5/Saturday as the trough
   approaches. Given the jet aloft and surface conditions that would
   support deep daytime mixing, a favorable pattern remains in place
   for dry and breezy weather to overlap very dry fuels across
   northeastern CA, southern OR, and northwestern NV. 40% Critical
   probabilities were maintained on Day 4/Thursday through Day
   6/Saturday along with a widespread 10% probability of Dry
   Thunderstorms over much of the Pacific Northwest and the nearby
   northern Rockies. This pattern of aforementioned upper-level
   support, limited but adequate (precipitable water values near
   0.5-0.7") moisture, fast-moving (25-35 mph) storms, and dry fuels
   (ERCs near the 80-95th percentile) remaining in place with minimal
   precipitation expected from the previous day, an area of 10% Dry
   Thunderstorm risk was introduced over portions of the northern
   Pacific Northwest and the nearby northern Rockies regions. Some of
   this activity may linger through the night between the two risk
   areas as well given the strong dynamic lift from aloft.

   ...Southern Plains...
   On Day 6/Sunday and Day 7/Monday, a cold front will move across the
   southern Plains, increasing fire weather risk in southwesterly flow
   ahead of the front as it progresses southeastward. Current ensemble
   forecast guidance suggests sustained 10-20 mph south to
   southwesterly winds will combine with afternoon RHs near 15-20%
   across the TX/OK Panhandles and surrounding areas with critically
   dry fuels.

   ...Northern Plains...
   Evolution of the post-frontal northwesterly winds over the northern
   High Plains remains a concern on Day 6/Sunday. However, current
   forecast guidance suggests that RHs are unlikely to reach Critical
   thresholds and fuels also remain marginally receptive in some areas.
   This region will be monitored with future outlook issuances as
   guidance becomes more clear.

   ..Stearns.. 08/18/2026