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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 041635
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The ongoing forecast remains on track with no changes; plentiful
recent rainfall and increased live fuel moisture has yielded reduced
fire weather concerns across much of the CONUS today. Where mixed
dry fuels still exist within parts of the northeastern U.S.,
forecast near-term (24-48 hour) precipitation should provide some
relief to the fuelscape.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Minimal fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS for
today. An upper trough and associated surface low will shift into
the Upper Midwest through today, bringing precipitation and limited
fire weather threat to portions of the Deep South, Ohio River
Valley, Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Pockets of receptive fuels
exist across the northeastern U.S., but absence of overlapping dry
and breezy conditions precludes introduction of broader fire weather
highlights.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 041827
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track for Day 2/Thursday with reduced fire
weather concerns across the CONUS.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Limited fire weather concerns for the CONUS will carry over from
D1/Wednesday into D2/Thursday. Precipitation associated with a
surface cyclone and attendant cold front will push into the
Northeastern U.S. This will aid in fuel recovery and reduce the fire
weather threat across this region after consecutive days of above
normal temperatures and low RH were observed.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 042132
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will build in over much of the western U.S. on
Day 3/Friday, transitioning temperatures from below/near-normal to
above normal starting this weekend. Consensus of the latest forecast
guidance is that this ridge, while not particularly strong, will
persist through the middle of next week. A cold front will exit the
Eastern Seaboard on Day 3/Friday as an upper low strengthens over
the Great Lakes, bringing a final swath of rainfall from the
Carolinas into Chesapeake Bay. Behind the front, high pressure will
rebuild across the eastern CONUS, maintaining dry conditions and
cooler temperatures through the weekend.
...Southern California...
An upper-level low will emerge over Baja CA on Day 3/Friday,
stalling over the region through early next week. This will support
easterly flow and result in weak to moderately strong Santa Ana
surface winds on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. Peak northwest to
northeast winds of 15-25 mph (maximum gusts up to 35 mph) and
minimum RH near 15% are possible in terrain-favored areas. Gusty
winds may linger into Day 5/Sunday, though current guidance suggests
the tightened surface pressure gradient should begin to relax as the
upper low weakens. Even with drying conditions present as this
system transits the region, recent rainfall accumulation and
increased live fuel moisture are expected to limit a broader
significant fire weather threat. However, in spotty areas that have
not received as much recent rainfall, a locally elevated to possibly
critical fire weather threat may evolve (especially in the
wind-prone areas of L.A./Ventura counties).
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/04/2026
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