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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 251629
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for
more details.
..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the
country despite very strong winds across much of the central Plains.
06 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across the
northern High Plains associated with a developing cyclone. This low
will undergo rapid intensification over the next 24 hours as it
shifts east towards the Midwest. Strong, 20-30 mph northwesterly
winds will overspread much of the central and southern Plains
through late afternoon as an attendant cold front pushes southeast.
Despite the strong winds, an influx of cold air will limit RH
reductions to 35-50% over the windiest areas. This, coupled with
unreceptive fuels after recent rainfall, will limit fire weather
potential.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 251843
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion.
..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/
...Synopsis...
No fire weather concerns are expected for Wednesday. A strong
cyclone that is currently developing over the northern High Plains
is expected to move into the Great Lakes region by late Wednesday.
This will support a broad swath of 15-25 mph across the Midwest and
OH Valley, but recent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire
concerns. Across southern California, a weak to moderate offshore
pressure gradient is expected to gradually become established
through Wednesday into early Thursday. While some areas may see
winds increase to 15-20 mph, widespread recent rainfall has largely
mitigated fuel concerns at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252122
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 031200Z
Deep upper-level troughing is expected over the eastern US with well
below normal temperatures amid a dry post-frontal airmass through
the end of the week and into Day 5/Saturday. An upper-level short
wave trough is likely to track from the northern Rockies into the
central US before strengthening over the Midwest/Great Lakes this
weekend. Deeper upper-level troughing is likely to develop over the
West this weekend and early next week, but forecast uncertainty
remains regarding the location and magnitude of this troughing.
...Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday: Portions of the Southeast...
Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely along/east of the
Piedmont and into southern Georgia and north Florida Day 3/Thursday.
RH is expected to dip below elevated/critical criteria across these
areas with 8-15 mph northwest-northerly winds overlapping. RH will
likely be lower on Day 4/Friday in portions of southern/central
Georgia into central/north Florida and possibly portions of South
Carolina. Mitigating factors will be cooler temperatures, especially
at higher elevations and farther north, and the potential for
rainfall today/tomorrow. Locally elevated conditions are likely with
portions of southern Georgia and north Florida currently favored,
but given the forecast uncertainty, probabilities of critical fire
weather conditions were not introduced.
...Day 5/Saturday: Southwest Texas...
Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of southwest Texas Day
5/Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. However, given the
forecast uncertainty with track of the upper-level shortwave trough,
frontal timing, and the overlap of critical winds/RH coincident with
receptive fuels, probabilities were not introduced.
..Nauslar.. 11/25/2025
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