ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220458

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
   SOUTHERN UTAH...

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper ridging will persist over the Interior West while building
   into the Northern Plains tomorrow (Tuesday). An embedded mid-level
   impulse will overspread the central Rockies, supporting surface lee
   troughing intensification over Intermountain West. Dry and breezy
   conditions will result Tuesday afternoon over the southern Great
   Basin into the Four corners, where Elevated highlights have been
   introduced. Critical highlights have also been introduced where
   guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds
   coinciding with 10-15 percent RH atop fuels receptive to fire
   spread.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212157

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0457 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad ridge centered over the Southwest US will dominate much of
   the Intermountain West's weather as the week begins. This pattern
   will reinforce warmer-than-normal and dry conditions, continuing to
   accelerate fuel desiccation across the region. This high centered
   near the AZ/NM borders will persist long enough that moisture will
   begin to advect north and eastward over the larger Four Corners
   region. Conversely, expansive troughing will dominate the Northeast,
   sending periodic cold fronts and widespread precipitation across the
   eastern United States to suppress regional fire threats there. The
   consensus among the latest long-term forecast guidance is that this
   pattern will be temporary with the Southwest high expected to weaken
   by Day 6/Friday as a large trough approaches the Pacific Northwest.
   As this high breaks down, potentially significant fire weather
   concerns will be possible Day 6/Friday through the weekend.

   ...Day 3/Tuesday...
   As high pressure builds over the Southwest, hot and dry (RHs at
   5-15%) surface conditions will promote deep boundary layer mixing,
   contributing to increased west/southwesterly surface winds of 15-25
   mph. As such, a 70 percent probability of Critical wind/RH area
   (with the highest concern for the strongest winds) was introduced
   over far southern UT and northwest AZ. The existing area of 40
   percent probability of Critical wind/RH was expanded over a more
   widespread area from southern NV to east of the Four Corners.

   ...Day 4/Wednesday and Day 5/Thursday...
   Persistent high pressure over the Southwest will eventually lead to
   increasing moisture wrapped in from the Gulf of California. It
   appears that this moisture will begin to reach eastern AZ, western
   NM, and far southwest CO on Day 4/Wednesday, followed by southern UT
   and western CO on Day 5/Thursday. As is typical with this pattern,
   hot and dry air at the surface will lag increasing moisture aloft,
   leading to high-based thunderstorms. Expect adjustments in
   time/space with future forecast issuances as the timing and
   placement of this potential moisture becomes more clear. While some
   uncertainty remains as to how much rainfall could accumulate, daily
   precipitation is expected to remain below 1/10 inch outside of
   particularly intense storms and generally under 1/4 inch where not
   orographically enhanced. Additionally, an area of 40 percent
   probability of Critical wind/RH was introduced over eastern NV where
   hot and dry surface conditions will combine with both southwesterly
   flow closer to the high pressure and a tightened surface pressure
   gradient from the approaching system to the northwest.

   ...Day 6/Friday through Day 8/Sunday...
   The aforementioned trough moving over the Pacific Northwest will dig
   southward as it comes onshore. A cold front will accompany this
   system as temperatures fall below normal for this time of year
   across much of the northwest third of the country. The threat will
   begin to be widespread over much of the Intermountain West on Day
   6/Friday as the area is squeezed between the existing ridge and
   incoming trough. However, as the cold front progresses southeastward
   as the weekend progresses, sustained surface winds will have the
   potential to exceed 20-30 mph over portions of northern AZ, much of
   UT, and western CO. One question that remains is how far south will
   the trough dig...determining how strong the winds do become over the
   larger Four Corners region with recent lightning activity earlier in
   the forecast period. This pattern has potential to cause major fire
   weather concerns over a region of the country where dead fuels
   currently sit near or above 95th percentile ERCs.

   ..Stearns.. 06/21/2026