ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 061946

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
   discussion below for more information.

   ..Thornton.. 01/06/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow
   (Wednesday), supporting surface low development over the southern
   High Plains. While moisture return is anticipated over the southern
   Plains, some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of
   western Texas, as well as the central High Plains. In these
   aforementioned areas, sustained westerly winds may briefly exceed 15
   mph. However, guidance varies in terms of how low RH will dip by
   afternoon peak heating, with some guidance showing RH reaching 20
   percent in some spots, with other members showing RH only dipping
   into the 25-30 percent range on a widespread basis. Given dry fuels,
   locally Elevated conditions are possible, but do not seem widespread
   enough to warrant highlights at this time.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062142

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

   Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

   A longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western US on
   D3/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the Oklahoma/Texas
   Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs, southerly flow will
   increase with moisture advection into the western portion of the
   Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and Missouri River Valleys.
   Widespread rain/thunderstorm activity can be expected across some
   portions of the central/eastern Southern Plains into the
   Mississippi/Missouri River Valley. Less precipitation is likely
   across portions of western Texas into western Oklahoma, where fire
   concerns are possible D4/Friday and 5/Saturday.

   ...(D4/Friday - D5/Saturday) Southwestern/West-Central Texas...
   Model guidance has been consistent in forecasting a steep gradient
   in precipitation amounts extending from central
   Oklahoma/north-central Texas, with the heaviest amounts eastward.
   Confidence is increasing that portions of western Texas into western
   Oklahoma will receive little to no precipitation. Latest fuels
   guidance suggests grass loading is high with freeze cured grasses
   present and ERCs around the 80th percentile. Strong and dry post
   frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
   departing low. Overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20
   percent are expected to overlap sustained northwesterly flow around
   20 mph. A 40 percent area was included at this time given some
   uncertainty still in where the gradient of higher precipitation will
   be.  Should precipitation totals exceed or not meet expectation,
   some reduction or expansion of this area may be needed in upcoming
   outlooks.

   Lingering Elevated to Critical conditions may be possible again
   across portions of southwestern Texas into far southwestern Oklahoma
   on D5/Saturday. For now confidence is too low to include any areas
   at this time.

   ..Thornton/Elizalde-garcia.. 01/06/2026