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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 130659
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level low with a 65-70 kt jet streak is expected to
progress eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, resulting in
widespread dry and windy conditions across portions of the Great
Basin into the Snake River Valley and far southwestern Montana.
...Great Basin into portions of Idaho and Montana...
Dry and windy conditions owing to deep boundary layer mixing beneath
the strong upper low and associated jet streak will result in
widespread 15-20 MPH winds across much of the Great Basin during the
afternoon. From southern Nevada into far western Utah, relative
humidity could reach as low as 10-15% with southwesterly winds,
while the post-frontal airmass across northern Nevada will possess
westerly winds with 15-20% relative humidity. With ERCs approaching
the 80th annual percentiles, at least Elevated fire-weather
conditions are expected, and locally Critical conditions are
possible where terrain induced wind gusts are favored. Further north
into the Snake River Valley and portions of southwest Montana,
southwest winds of 20 MPH (with locally higher gusts) are
anticipated to overlap with relative humidity of around 15%. While
there appears to be a potential corridor for Critical fire-weather
concerns, they overlap with more modest fuels and a lower density
fuelscape.
..Halbert.. 09/13/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 130700
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast Monday as
strong jet streak associated with an upper-level low progresses from
the Northern Rockies into the Northern Great Plains. Meteorological
conditions will reach well into Critical criteria for wind and RH,
but potential precipitation and a somewhat unfavorable fuelscape
will generally temper the fire-weather concerns.
...Central and Eastern Wyoming into portions of the Northern Great
Plains...
Strong westerly winds of 25-30 MPH are forecast to develop across
southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle, with daytime
relative humidity as low as 10-15%. Though fuels guidance suggests
receptiveness to ignition and spread, a generally low-density
fuelscape and potential precipitation will serve to reduce overall
fire-weather concerns. Further north, winds of 30-35 MPH are
forecast with the postfrontal airmass that will have generally
higher relative humidity above 20% and cooler temperatures. Given
the mentioned uncertainties, the area and magnitude of fire-weather
highlights may change in subsequent updates.
..Halbert.. 09/13/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 122138
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...
A deamplifying upper-level trough moves into the Great Lakes region
by Day 4/Tuesday as ridging continues across the southern CONUS,
generating some fire weather concerns for portions of the
central/northern High Plains on Day 3/Monday. Otherwise, a relaxing
mid/upper jet pattern will emerge across the northern U.S. next week
as stronger westerly flow aloft shifts into Canada. A less dynamic
upper trough should move into the northwestern U.S. by midweek, but
surface pressure response and resultant wind speeds will be muted
mitigating a broader scale fire weather threat. The upper trough
should also aid in suppressing subtropical moisture influx into CA
and the Great Basin, where mostly dry conditions will prevail.
...Day 3/Monday...
...Portions of the Northern High Plains...
A 65-75 knot mid-level jet associated with the eastward progressing
upper wave across the Northern Rockies will move into the Northern
Plains through Day 3/Monday. In response, a deepening lee surface
trough evolves across the central/northern Plains. Strong westerly
winds (15-25 mph) stretching from southern WY to the NE Panhandle
and low daytime RH will support a fire weather threat Monday.
Farther north, a similarly windy environment within dry,
post-frontal flow from the west-northwest, could also present fire
weather concerns across portions of northern WY, far southeastern MT
and parts of western SD. 40% critical probabilities have been
introduced for these areas as fuels remain receptive in the region.
There remains some forecast uncertainty in expected rainfall
distribution and amounts leading up to Monday, so the highlighted
threat area could change in subsequent outlooks.
...Southern Plains...
Persistent south winds each day are expected across portions of the
Southern Plains next week under a meandering upper ridge across the
southeastern U.S. Well above normal temperatures in the upper 90s to
lower 100s F will maintain a receptive fuelscape where rainfall was
minimized, primarily across southwestern OK and portions of
northwestern TX. However, ensemble guidance probabilities of surface
RH falling below 25% are low, reducing confidence in alignment of
southerly winds of 15-20 mph and suppressing a more significant fire
weather threat.
..Williams.. 09/12/2026
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