ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 140652

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper ridge over the central US is forecast to continue building
   rapidly as the weak western US trough is pushed northward. Showers
   and thunderstorms are likely on the periphery. Beneath the ridge,
   very warm temperatures are again likely over the central US
   promoting low humidity, breezy winds and some fire-weather risk.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Another day of very hot conditions is expected beneath the building
   ridge across the central and southern Plains. Afternoon temperatures
   in the low hundreds are likely again supporting RH minimums around
   20-25%%. A weak surface low and trailing surface trough will promote
   gusty southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph at the surface, albeit
   slightly weaker than Friday. With little recent rainfall, area fuels
   are very dry. Some locally elevated fire-weather concerns are
   possible for parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle Saturday, but
   the weaker winds will preclude an Elevated area.

   ...Northwest...
   To the north and west of the upper ridge, weak troughing will
   persist atop a plume of monsoon moisture. Another round of showers
   and thunderstorms is likely over parts of WA/OR and into western ID.
   While recent rainfall over the WA/OR Cascades should likely temper
   fuels, drier conditions over eastern OR and western ID may allow
   fuels to remain more receptive to lightning ignitions. Mean storm
   speeds around 25 mph and relatively dry low-levels could support
   some risk for dry thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.
   Adjustments to the IsoDryT area will likely be needed pending
   rainfall amounts on Friday, but some risk for lighting over dry
   fuels is apparent.

   ..Lyons.. 08/14/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132200

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   The extended forecast period begins with mid-level troughing in
   place over the west CONUS coast and broad ridging in place over the
   eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. By Day 4/Sunday, ridging builds
   back westward over much of the Intermountain West. By Day 5/Monday,
   models begin to diverge, though the general consensus is for a
   shortwave trough to progress through the flow and impinge on the
   northern CA coast that afternoon. However, differences in the
   amplitude of this small disturbance will result in some uncertainty
   as to the sensible surface weather as it passes overhead. By the
   time Day 6/Tuesday arrives, larger uncertainties amongst forecast
   guidance are presented with a mid-level trough strengthening near
   the Pacific Northwest. On Day 7/Wednesday and Day 8/Thursday, a more
   significant mid-level trough is expected to move onshore and
   progress across the northwestern quadrant of the CONUS. However,
   significant differences remain between forecast guidance as to the
   amplitude and speed of this system as it moves eastward.

   ...Day 3/Saturday through Day 5/Monday...
   The aforementioned shortwave trough will provide lift amid
   sufficient instability to generate probabilities of isolated morning
   and afternoon thunderstorms over portions of central OR on Day
   3/Saturday. Precluding this threat are the two days of preceding
   thunderstorm activity on Day 1/Thursday and Day 2/Friday. Thus,
   additional probabilities may be needed in future outlook cycles if
   storms trend drier and/or less-than-forecast precipitation is
   received leading up to Day 3/Saturday. Additional chances for
   thunderstorms are possible again on Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday
   over northern CA and southern/central OR. While the likelihood of
   thunderstorm occurrence is currently low and uncertain due to the
   nature of the aforementioned pattern evolution, so is the preceding
   precipitation accumulation, particularly across portions of central
   OR.

   ...Day 6/Tuesday through Day 7/Wednesday...
   There are initial signs of coincident dry and windy conditions over
   portions of western/northern Great Basin on Day 6/Tuesday and Day
   7/Wednesday. Should the slower end of the forecast guidance spectrum
   come to fruition regarding the progression of the aforementioned
   mid-level trough early next week, the pattern would support a
   tightening surface pressure gradient amid above-normal temperatures,
   promoting deep-mixing and gusty southerly flow from central CA
   through far southwestern MT for at least a day if not two depending
   on the resilience of the ridge centered over the southern High
   Plains.

   ..Stearns.. 08/13/2026