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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 031545
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS...
The Critical areas remain on track from the previous forecast. The
Elevated area was slightly adjusted to include additional portions
of the central Plains where the latest forecast guidance indicates
criteria will be met this afternoon. In agreement with local Red
Flags, fuels guidance also shows that recent rainfall over northeast
Colorado and south-central Nebraska has had little impact on fine
dead moisture going into today. Additionally, areas near the
south-central New Mexico mountains, where fuels remain exceptionally
dry, cannot be ruled out of elevated conditions behind the frontal
passage this evening according to the latest forecast guidance.
..Stearns.. 04/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough currently analyzed across the northern
Rockies will eject northeastward across the central/northern Great
Plains today. At the surface, an associated surface cyclone will
shift from the central Great Plains into the Midwest with a trailing
cold front progressing southward across the central and southern
High Plains through the period.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with low
pressure across the central Plains and surface troughing in the lee
of the southern Rockies will favor strong westerly, downslope winds
of 20-25 mph (with the potential for occasional gusts of 30-40 mph)
along the I40 corridor in central/eastern New Mexico. With minimum
RH values forecast around 10-15% and receptive fuels across the
region, this will support critical fire weather conditions for at
least a few hours this afternoon.
A southward progressing cold front will then bring a shift to
northerly winds later this evening and into tonight. Latest guidance
suggests that RH will be slow to recover behind this front, with
spotty 15-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly winds overlapping RH
below 20%. This may bring an extended and/or additional period of
elevated fire weather concerns to portions of eastern and southern
New Mexico and West Texas into tonight as the front progresses
southward. The greatest potential for these conditions is expected
in the lee of the Sacramento/Guadelupe Mountains in eastern New
Mexico/West Texas and within the Jornada del Muerto and Tularosa
Valley in southern New Mexico where terrain effects may yield local
wind enhancements.
...Portions of the Central High Plains...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, westerly downslope flow will
develop as the aforementioned mid-level trough begins to eject
northeastward across the central Great Plains. Sustained 20-25 mph
northwesterly winds (locally higher) are forecast to overlap very
low RH of 10-15% across portions of the central High Plains,
supporting critical fire weather concerns. The best overlap of these
conditions is forecast to the southeast of Royal Gorge in Colorado
(where high-res guidance depicts stronger winds owing to terrain
effects) and into western Kansas. While RH is forecast to remain
more marginal (15-20%) farther north in the lee of the Front Range,
sustained winds around 25 mph (with the potential for periodic gusts
to 35-45 mph) amid very dry fuels supported the inclusion of this
area in the Critical highlights. Elevated fire weather concerns are
forecast across adjacent areas of the central High Plains where
northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap low
RH of 10-20%.
...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A locally strong Santa Ana event will peak this afternoon, with
sustained north-northeasterly winds of 20-30 mph (gusts to 50 mph)
and very low RH values of 10-15% traversing southern Nevada, the
Low/High Desert of California, and the wind-prone areas surrounding
the Los Angeles metro. While elevated live fuel moisture is expected
to preclude widespread concerns, these conditions may support
locally elevated fire weather conditions for areas with drier fine
fuels.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 031804
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Locally elevated
conditions will be possible for a few hours during the afternoon of
Day 2/Saturday over portions of southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas,
and southeast New Mexico. However, recent accumulating precipitation
over much of Oklahoma and extreme eastern portions of the Texas
Panhandle combined with expected showers and storms over almost all
of the aforementioned area today and tonight will preclude the
introduction of any highlighted areas with this forecast issuance.
The latest forecast trends and observations from the Day 1/Friday
activity will be closely watched over this region.
..Stearns.. 04/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level shortwave trough and its associated surface low
will transition northeastward across the Great Lakes region on
D2/Saturday while upper-level ridging builds across the West. A
trailing cold front will progress eastward across portions of the
Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys and southward across southern
Texas, with high pressure building into the Great Plains behind this
front. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values are
expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time.
...Portions of the Texas Rolling Plains into Southern New Mexico...
Latest high-res guidance suggests that sustained northeasterly to
easterly surface winds around 15 mph along the southern periphery of
the aforementioned surface high may briefly overlap reduced RH
values of 15-20% Saturday afternoon to promote locally elevated fire
weather concerns from the Texas Rolling Plains into southern New
Mexico. Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding the duration of overlap between sustained
surface winds of 15+ mph and RH values below 20% as well as the
potential for light precipitation on D1/Friday across Texas. Trends
will continue to be monitored for future outlooks.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 022106
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0406 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper level trough is expected to traverse the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region on D3/Saturday - D4/Sunday. A broad ridge of high
pressure will build across much of the southwestern U.S. bringing
warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the middle of
next week. Recent guidance hints that a weak disturbance embedded
within the ridge may track across parts of the Southwest on Day
4/Sunday. Ample south/southeasterly flow continuing through
D5/Monday combined with elevated moisture return may encourage
isolated convection across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM.
Guidance will be monitored closely for the introduction of isolated
dry thunderstorm probabilities in future outlooks as confidence
increases. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise in the
central and southern High Plains throughout the forecast period as
dry conditions prevail resulting from the prominent upper-level
pattern. Ensemble guidance suggests a pattern change late next week
as a trough approaches western CONUS, which could bring dry and
breezy conditions back to the central/southern High Plains where dry
fuels exist.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/02/2026
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