ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281911

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes were made to the Day 2/Wednesday fire weather outlook;
   see the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/28/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Weak upper-level troughing will linger over the northwestern US, but
   heights will build over much of the West. A cold front will stall
   and further weaken across the northwestern Great Basin. An upper
   high will remain over the southern High Plains/Rockies as a deep
   upper-level trough continues over the eastern US. 

   Dry and breezy conditions are likely to develop across portions of
   the Inland Northwest, western/northern Great Basin, and into the
   northern Rockies. West-southwest sustained winds of 10-18 mph with
   gusts of 20-25 mph amid minimum RH of 5-25% will lead to locally
   elevated conditions. Additionally, hot, dry, and breezy conditions
   will continue in portions of the Texas Panhandle and western
   Oklahoma amid a fuelscape of mixed receptiveness.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282138

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0438 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level troughing is forecast to continue across portions of the
   Pacific Northwest through much of the workweek, with the main
   upper-level low remaining offshore. On Day 3/Thursday, a strong and
   well-defined mid-level shortwave will rotate through the base of the
   trough and over the region within southwest flow aloft. This feature
   will promote thunderstorm chances with minimal precipitation across
   the Northern Rockies amid a receptive fuelscape. Thereafter,
   long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the
   aforementioned upper-level low will move onshore this weekend,
   yielding dry and breezy conditions across the Northwest and Northern
   Rockies. Early next week, model guidance begins to differ in the
   progression of the overall upper pattern, with some solutions
   depicting a ridge to rebuild over the western CONUS, while others
   portray weak northwesterly flow across the Pacific Northwest.
   Regardless, trends will continue to be monitored. 

   ...Northwestern US...
   Wet/dry thunderstorm chances return on Day 3/Thursday as a shortwave
   trough impinges upon the region. Ample instability, a dry boundary
   layer, and sufficient mid-level moisture support 10% dry
   thunderstorm probabilities. A lingering dry boundary layer and warm
   daytime temperatures are expected to increase fuel receptivity
   (forecast ERCs approaching the 95th percentile), enhancing concerns
   for new lightning ignitions. Gusty winds and a dry airmass return to
   the Pacific Northwest this weekend as the offshore trough moves
   inland, with greater potential for critical fire conditions to
   materialize -- especially where strong winds/low RH overlap areas
   where preceding days of thunderstorms may result in holdover
   ignitions. As such, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained
   on Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday.  

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of the
   southern High Plains on Day 3/Thursday; however, fuels guidance
   suggests the fuelscape remains mostly mixed, precluding the
   introduction of probabilities. Nevertheless, daytime RH values of
   15-20% and sustained southerly winds of 15-20 mph should promote
   locally elevated fire weather concerns where pockets of dry fuels
   exist.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/28/2026