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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 070710
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Early-morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing
east through the Midwest and southeast across the Plains. This
feature is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through today
as cool temperatures and high pressure follow in its wake. A
combination of cool temperatures, recent rainfall, and widespread
rain chances today from the OH Valley into the lower MS Valley will
limit fire weather concerns for most locations east of the Rockies,
though localized fire weather potential is noted across parts of the
northern High Plains.
...Northern High Plains...
A clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies will support
strengthening west/northwest gradient winds through the late
afternoon. Wind speeds upwards of 15-25 mph are expected and may
coincide with RH reductions into the 15-25% range within the
downslope flow regime across central to eastern WY. Fire weather
concerns will most likely be focused across far east-central WY into
adjacent portions of NE and SD where ERC values are near seasonal
highs and limited precipitation has fallen over the past 72 hours
per MRMS estimates.
...Southern California Coast...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper low over the
lower CO River Valley. This feature will continue to settle
southward into northwest Mexico as northeasterly mid-level winds
strengthen over southern CA. A combination of strong mid to
upper-level offshore flow coupled with a moderate offshore pressure
gradient (LAX-DAG gradient forecast to be around -5 mb) will support
east/northeast winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph at times)
today through early Sunday morning. While confidence in these winds
is fairly high due to strong agreement among deterministic and
ensemble solutions, latest fuels analyses suggest that fuels remain
unsupportive of fire spread.
..Moore.. 03/07/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 070712
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
Regional fire weather concerns are expected for Sunday across parts
of the southern High Plains and potentially the northern High
Plains. Zonal flow across the Rockies is expected to strengthen
through the weekend as an upper low meanders over the lower CO River
Valley and weak upper disturbances migrate along the U.S./Canadian
border. This flow regime should promote lee troughing along the high
Plains with a corresponding uptick in dry westerly downslope flow
off the higher terrain.
...Southern High Plains...
Latest guidance hints that surface pressure falls will be regionally
most pronounced across southeast CO into southwest KS and the OK
Panhandle region. This will support 15-20 mph southwest winds across
northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles. Dry conditions will already
be in place in the wake of Friday's frontal passage, so confidence
is reasonably high in observing RH reductions into the teens to low
20s. Active fires across the area over the past three days indicate
that fuels are receptive amid ongoing drought conditions.
...Northern High Plains...
As with D1/Saturday, a progressive shortwave trough migrating along
the International border will support some increase west/northwest
winds along the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. However, with
surface pressure falls more focused across northeast MT, confidence
in sustained 15-20 mph winds is somewhat lower across eastern WY and
SD. Regardless, localized elevated fire weather conditions are
possible as RH values fall to near 20% across a region with
receptive fuels.
...Southern California Coast...
An offshore wind event will likely be ongoing at the start of the
forecast period and is expected to peak Sunday morning between 14-18
UTC before gradually abating later in the day. Sustained winds
between 20-25 mph are expected with gusts as high as 45 mph possible
within the lee of the coastal terrain. Despite fairly high
confidence in critical wind speeds, recent fuel analyses show that
fuels are currently not receptive to fire spread.
..Moore.. 03/07/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 062157
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
Split upper-level flow will start out the extended period on Day
3/Sunday with a cutoff low over Baja California and a positively
tilted shortwave trough progressing east through the Great Lakes
region. By Day 4/Monday, upper-level flow becomes largely zonal
across northern portions of the CONUS. The aforementioned
upper-level low begins to move eastward, passing through the
southern Plains on Day 6/Wednesday in phase with another
strengthening shortwave trough progressing across the northern
Plains.
On Day 3/Sunday, a 40% area was introduced over portions of
northeast New Mexico and the west Texas Panhandle where afternoon
RHs are expected to drop to 8-15% coinciding with west-southwest
sustained winds at 15-25 mph. A 40% area was strongly considered for
portions of the northern High Plains, especially near the Black
Hills where the lowest afternoon RHs of 15-25% would combine with
the strongest westerly sustained winds of 15-25 mph. However, given
recent and ongoing precipitation, including snow, over these areas
on Day 1/Friday and forecast uncertainty, probabilities were not
introduced.
Weaker flow on Day 4/Monday over the Southwest and adjacent southern
High Plains is likely to present sub-Elevated fire weather
conditions. Thus, the decision was made to not include any marginal
probabilities with this issuance. Future outlooks will reconsider
this potential as forecast guidance evolves.
The aforementioned cutoff low begins to move eastward through the
Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 5/Tuesday and Day
6/Wednesday likely bringing precipitation to portions of the region.
While there are likely to be differences in the exact placement and
track of any precipitation, it does appear that some relief could be
headed for portions of these areas of recent concern.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/06/2026
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