ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050509

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1209 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the western CONUS
   as an upper low traverses the Canadian Prairies, permitting strong
   northwesterly flow to overspread the northern Plains. Ahead of an
   approaching cold front, daytime high temperatures will reach 90+
   degrees F as RH values quickly decline to less than 20% and
   west-northwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The aforementioned
   cold front will enter Montana sometime Day 2/Thursday afternoon,
   though approximate timing is uncertain given varying model
   solutions. As the front passes, winds will shift to broadly
   northerly at 15-25 mph (gusts over 30 mph) for a couple of hours
   while RH increases overnight. Elevated highlights have been
   introduced across portions of the Colorado Plateau into the northern
   Plains where ERCs will range from the 80-95th percentile, and NDVI
   portrays a significant 30-day decrease in live green vegetation.
   Prolonged above normal temperatures, a dry boundary layer, and
   briefly breezy winds may encourage locally elevated fire conditions
   to emerge across the California valleys and adjacent higher terrain
   where widespread ERCs exceed the 90th percentile.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/05/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042152

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   An upper-level ridge over the West is likely to flatten this weekend
   as upper-level troughing pushes southeast across central Canada and
   as an upper low slowly approaches the British Columbia coast. The
   magnitude and timing of the upper-level ridge flattening still
   remains somewhat uncertain. An upper high will likely remain over
   portions of the Great Basin and just west of the Four Corners
   through the outlook period. Monsoonal moisture will begin to move
   into southern California and the Great Basin late this week and this
   weekend, but the northward extent and timing of this moisture also
   remains uncertain. 

   ...Northern Intermountain West...
   Mid-level flow is forecast to increase across the northwestern US by
   Day 4/Friday and continue through the weekend. This along with a
   strengthened onshore pressure gradient and eventual dry cold frontal
   passage will increase surface winds amid a dry airmass across the
   northern Intermountain West. These winds will follow a hot and dry
   period, and ERCs will be above the 90th percentile with some areas
   approaching record high ERCs along with dozens of active large
   wildfires. The 40% area was expanded on Day 4/Friday with another
   40% area included on Day 5/Saturday. Dry/breezy conditions are
   likely to continue on Day 6/Sunday, but the magnitude and location
   of these conditions remain too uncertain to include probabilities at
   this time. 

   ...Southern Intermountain West...
   Monsoonal moisture will slowly move west/north into southern
   California and the southern Great Basin late this week and over the
   weekend. Isolated mixed wet/dry storms will be on the northern
   fringes of this moisture across portions of southern/central Utah,
   southern Nevada, and southern California. However, considerable
   uncertainty exists regarding the timing and location of the moisture
   in the coming days. While confidence is higher that portions of
   northwest Arizona and southern Utah will experience a mix of wet/dry
   thunderstorms on Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday, forecast guidance
   also indicates the best chances of storms are over areas with less
   receptive fuels. Additionally, forecast guidance also indicates the
   possibility of multiple consecutive days of thunderstorms with
   increasing PWAT values and rainfall. These reasons currently
   preclude introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms. However,
   if forecast guidance indicates better thunderstorm potential farther
   west/north where fuels are more receptive and consecutive days of
   mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are less likely, then probabilities will
   be included. 

   ...High Plains...
   A 40% area was added for portions of eastern Montana as westerly
   winds will increase ahead of a cold front on Day 3/Thursday. Dry and
   breezy post-frontal conditions are also likely for portions of
   southeast Montana/vicinity. Portions of the southern/central High
   Plains are likely to experience dry and breezy conditions this
   weekend. However, there is potential for wetting rain ahead of these
   conditions on portions of the southern/central High Plains, which
   lowers confidence for including probabilities of critical
   conditions.

   ..Nauslar.. 08/04/2026