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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 291631
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...Southwest...
Dry and breezy conditions including west-southwest winds of 15 mph
(approaching 20 mph locally) and RH ranging from 5-15%, are still
expected across eastern AZ into much of western NM through this
afternoon. A slight eastward expansion of Elevated Highlights was
made into far west TX to include the Davis Mountains. Overnight
cloud cover contributed to poor overnight recoveries across the
area. Stronger west-southwest flow aloft and lee surface troughing
across the southern High Plains will aid in stalling the
southwestward advancement of a cold front across eastern NM and much
of TX. This will allow dry and breezy conditions to continue across
the area through the afternoon.
...Southern Georgia and Northern Florida...
A weak surface trough stretches southwestward from a low over the
Northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic and into the Coastal Plains
region of southern GA. Clearing skies will aid in boundary layer
mixing through the afternoon, manifesting in west wind of around 10
mph. RH reductions of 25-35% are expected during peak heating,
supporting elevated fire weather conditions amid receptive and
drought stressed fuels. Rainfall from decaying convection overnight
into this morning has moderated fuels across portions of southern
GA, reducing overall fire weather threat. Elevated highlights have
been contracted on the northern and western peripheries to account
for a temporary lull in fire danger.
..Williams.. 04/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper level shortwave trough will traverse the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley as an attendant surface low approaches the
Mid-Atlantic. A trailing cold front will progress east of the
Appalachians extending into the Southeast by this afternoon. Dry
westerly flow south of the advancing cold front is expected to
increase fire weather concerns for portions of southern GA and
northern FL where fuels remain dry. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow
ahead of an approaching Pacific trough will bolster a continued
downslope regime across the Southwest. With preceding days of
fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels, fire weather
concerns will persist over central NM to far eastern AZ this
afternoon.
...Southwest...
Upper-level cloud cover is currently increasing across much of the
Southwest and southern Plains early this morning owing to a
subtropical jet advecting moisture aloft. This will likely inhibit
RH recoveries west of the NM central mountain chain, preconditioning
an already dry fuel environment. A 50-60 kt mid-level jet at the
base of an embedded, low-amplitude shortwave within broader
west-southwest flow will evolve across the Southwest and southern
Plains today, promoting continued dry and breezy conditions.
Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH of less than 15 percent amid dry
fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat for portions of
eastern AZ into central NM/West TX and the San Luis Valley. Locally
critical fire weather conditions may emerge mainly in the leeward
slopes of the more prominent mountain ranges in southern NM with
sustained winds of 20-25 mph amid 10 percent RH.
...Southern Georgia and Northern Florida...
Beneath the upper level trough, a deepening surface low over the
Mid-Atlantic will enhance southwest to westerly surface winds across
much of the Southeast as minimal Gulf moisture influence will
overlap a dry and drought stressed landscape. West winds of around
10 mph and RH of 25-35 percent (locally less than 25 percent) are
expected to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across portions
of southern GA into northern FL this afternoon. Early morning
thunderstorms are currently moving across central AL into far
western GA, but are expected to diminish as they approach the
Elevated risk area. However, if precipitation persists farther
southeast than anticipated, fire weather highlights will be adjusted
in the 17z outlook.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 291918
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...Florida Peninsula...
A cold front will slowly sag southward towards the Gulf Coast into
northern FL by Thursday afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms
along this boundary are expected mainly along and north of the
Interstate 10 corridor across northern FL. Receptive fuels could
support lightning ignitions where precipitation is minimized along
with a potential impact to existing fires from outflow winds. South
of this boundary, steady west winds around 10 mph and RH reductions
of 20-35% amid drought stressed fuels will support an elevated fire
weather threat for central portions of the FL Peninsula during peak
boundary layer mixing in the afternoon. A slight southeastward shift
and extension into eastern FL coast was warranted based on latest
forecast guidance, with a westerly offshore component and related
dry conditions persisting through the day.
..Williams.. 04/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level Pacific low will move onshore the Baja Peninsula
and transition into an eastward projecting shortwave as a westerly
50-70 kt jet emerges downstream across central TX into the Southeast
on Thursday. Ample Pacific moisture transport will encourage
widespread wetting rains and a reduced fire weather threat across
much of the central and southern High Plains. Broad upper troughing
is forecast to take residence across the Northeast as a closed
upper-level low persists over southern Ontario. A southward
progressing weak cold front will eventually stall over southern GA
and northern FL on Thursday afternoon, bringing increased
precipitation chances to where extensive drought and receptive fuels
remain. However, ahead of the front, high pressure will promote a
warm and dry airmass over Central FL where fire weather concerns
reemerge amid a very dry fuelscape.
...Florida Peninsula...
Ahead of a stalled frontal boundary near the FL-GA line, surface
high pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions for much of the
FL Peninsula on Thursday afternoon. An Elevated fire weather threat
is expected where westerly winds of up to 10 mph will partially
overlap a region of 30-35 percent RH amid receptive fuels and a
drought-ridden environment. Near the frontal boundary, increasing
mid-level moisture along with afternoon heating and resultant
instability may support isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lightning ignitions are possible in areas that do not see sufficient
rainfall, and resultant gusty/erratic outflow winds from
thunderstorms could further exacerbate any new/ongoing fires.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 292134
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad troughing should remain well established across the eastern
U.S. for the weekend into early next week while upper-level ridging
takes hold over the Intermountain West. Elevated westerly winds and
dry conditions will bring a fire weather threat to portions of
central FL Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday before a cold front and
associated band of rainfall shifts southward Saturday night into Day
5/Sunday. A Pacific trough intrudes into the western U.S. early next
week supporting dry, southwesterly flow across the Desert Southwest,
Great Basin and Colorado River Basin. However, limited fuel
receptiveness should mitigate fire weather concerns across portions
of the Intermountain West. Persistent northwest flow aloft over the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest along with minimal precipitation,
along with several passing cold fronts, could pose a fire weather
concern next week as fuels dry. However, forecast uncertainty
remains in timing and extent of post-frontal impacts across the
region.
...Florida Peninsula...
Fire weather concerns will persist across portions of the FL
Peninsula Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday as a cold front and attendant
showers and thunderstorms remain draped across the Deep South and
Gulf Coast. Steady westerly flow over the FL Peninsula and
relatively dry boundary layer conditions will support a fire weather
threat amid very dry fuels on Friday. An upper-level trough
amplifying across the eastern U.S. and deepening surface low off the
Carolina Coast should bring enhanced westerly winds around 15 mph to
the peninsula Day 4/Saturday. Coupled with very warm temperature
(lower 90s F) and a deep well-mixed boundary layer, this will
promote a fire weather threat across central FL Saturday. 40%
critical probability areas on both Friday and Saturday were only
slightly modified based on latest forecast guidance. The cold front
and attendant showers and thunderstorms shift south by Day 5/Sunday,
bringing needed rainfall to many locations. However, there could be
some areas that evade wetting rains owing to timing of diurnal
convective cycle and rain intensity over central FL.
..Williams.. 04/29/2026
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