U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 070656
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...Synopsis...
Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving across the
northern Rockies, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly
flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- to
the north of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the
southern Rockies.
...Great Basin into the Central Rockies...
Diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the
enhanced flow aloft across the Great Basin into the central Rockies.
As a result, widespread single-digit to lower teens RH will develop
amid 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. Given
increasingly dry/receptive fuels, another day of critical
fire-weather conditions are expected.
...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies...
Within a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest
into the central Rockies, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms
are expected -- with a focus over the higher terrain. These storms
will be mostly dry, owing to inverted-V soundings (0.50 to 0.70 inch
PW) -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong
outflow winds.
..Weinman.. 08/07/2025
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 070656
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...Synopsis...
Moderate-strong midlevel westerly flow will be in place across the
Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between a robust midlevel
trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains and midlevel
anticyclone over the southern Rockies/High Plains.
...Great Basin into the Central Rockies...
Similar to Day 1/Thursday, a diurnally deepening boundary layer will
extend well into the moderate-strong westerly flow aloft. This will
promote an expansive overlap of single-digit to lower teens RH and
20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts).
These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead
to another day of critical fire-weather conditions.
...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies...
Diurnal heating/mixing beneath an established midlevel moisture
plume from the Southwest into the central Rockies will favor another
day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms during
the afternoon. Associated inverted-V soundings and 0.50 to 0.75 inch
PW will support mostly dry storms, capable of producing
lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels and gusty/erratic outflow
winds.
..Weinman.. 08/07/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 062037
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the Interior West through
the remainder of this week, ejecting into the Plains by this
weekend. Thereafter, upper ridging will prevail west of the Rockies
through most of next week. The passage of the mid-level trough on
Day 3 (Friday) will encourage 20+ mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds to overlap with 10-20 percent RH on a widespread basis
across portions of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Given receptive
fuels, up to 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced,
particularly for areas expected to experience dry/windy conditions
for several hours Friday afternoon. Across the Four Corners into the
Southwest, enough mid-level moisture will linger each day through
Sunday to support thunderstorm initiation given adequate mid-level
buoyancy and orographic lift. These storms will develop atop a dry
boundary layer, which should encourage at least a few dry strikes
amid dry fuel beds, warranting 10 percent dry thunderstorm
probabilities into the weekend.
..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025
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