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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 241625
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
No changes to Critical highlights were made across CO. Poor
overnight relative humidity recoveries were noted in surface
observations across the central and southern High Plains, even more
so across the central and southeastern NM where RH failed to reach
25%. A lee surface cyclone across eastern CO and southward extending
trough into the central High Plains, coupled with modest deep layer
westerly flow will contribute to dry and breezy conditions through
the afternoon. Downslope drying and enhanced winds from the west and
southwest of 15-25 mph are likely across the central and southern
High Plains, with the driest boundary layer conditions during peak
heating across eastern CO where single digit RH values are likely.
These atmospheric conditions combined with very dry fuels will bring
critical fire weather conditions to portions of central and much of
eastern CO today. Locally critical thresholds are possible (20 mph
west winds and RH of 10-15%) in favored terrain gaps and in the
immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains
across eastern NM.
A slight westward extension of broader Elevated highlights across
much of the Southwest was incorporated into portions of the Grand
Canyon and AZ Strip areas. Above average ERC values remain across
the northwestern AZ, with several days of drying contributing to
increased fuel receptivity. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph and
relative humidity in the 15-20% range will bring an elevated fire
weather threat to the area this afternoon.
See previous discussion for additional forecast details.
..Williams.. 04/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge situated over the eastern U.S. is expected to
dampen, giving way to a predominantly zonal flow pattern across the
southern tier of the CONUS. Simultaneously, a broad upper-level
trough will remain anchored over the north-central U.S. near the
international border. This setup will maintain a very breezy and
persistently arid environment through the conclusion of the work
week across the Southwest and the central/southern High Plains.
...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions have been highlighted for the
Colorado Rockies and the neighboring High Plains, where latest
forecast guidance indicates a high likelihood of potent winds
coupled with low humidity. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis over
eastern Colorado will further enhance downslope winds along the
Front Range, while southwesterly winds prevail across the eastern
plains. Robust vertical mixing during peak heating is forecast to
descend 15-25 mph sustained winds to the surface. When combined with
relative humidity levels falling to 10-15% (and locally into the
single digits), these conditions will impact exceptionally dry fuels
already stressed by a multi-day stretch of fire weather activity.
While increasing cloud cover late in the day may offer some minor
mitigation of the threat before dusk, the fire environment remains
heightened. Consequently, Elevated highlights include much of the
Southwest and include the Four Corners region through western
Colorado. In these areas, westerly winds of 15-20 mph and humidity
levels below 20% will coincide with ERCs reaching the 75th to 90th
percentile.
...Carolinas...
As the eastern CONUS ridge breaks down, breezy westerly surface
winds (remaining under 10 mph sustained) can be expected over much
of the Carolinas today. While these conditions will not meet
criteria for elevated conditions, continued offshore flow will
likely result in RHs falling below 20% amid above-normal
temperatures over already dry fuels, keeping the fire environment
primed.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 241908
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Southern Plains into portions of the Southwest...
A subtle mid-level short wave embedded within westerly zonal flow
will move into the Southern Plains. An attendant but modest wind
maxima aloft in addition to a deepening lee surface low across
northwestern TX will maintain dry and breezy conditions for portions
of the Southwest and Southern Plains Saturday. Elevated fire weather
conditions including west to southwest winds of up to 20 mph and
relative humidity in the 10-15% range are still expected. The
elevated fire weather threat was nudged northward into south central
CO based on latest model guidance and overall persistent westerly
flow aloft. Localized downslope enhanced winds of around 20 mph,
relative humidity near 15% and dry fuels will increase fire spread
potential.
Farther west, an influx of subtropical Pacific moisture ahead of a
more pronounced trough impinging upon the CA Coast will promote
increasing cloud cover over the broader CO River Basin Saturday.
Some precipitation is likely to develop late Saturday afternoon and
evening, temporarily mitigating fire weather concerns amid an
otherwise breezy day across the region.
..Williams.. 04/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
A broad, large-scale upper level trough will be anchored near the
international border over the central US through the weekend. To the
east, the prevailing upper-level ridge will collapse on Day
2/Saturday as an approaching mid-level shortwave trough triggers
widespread precipitation over the Midwest and Appalachians. This
change is expected to provide some relief to the critically dry
fuels over these regions. However, for areas bypassed by appreciable
rainfall (especially east of the southern Appalachians), the fire
risk posed by lingering drought conditions will persist.
...Southern Plains into portions of the Southwest...
Zonal flow aloft will remain in place across the Southwest on
Saturday, sustaining very breezy and dry conditions. Following
several consecutive days of heightened fire weather, the fuel
environment remains highly stressed, especially over northern
extents of the drawn area. Westerly downslope winds of 15-20 mph
will coincide with relative humidity values of 10-20% over receptive
fuels, further aggravating the fire risk. Consequently, an Elevated
area exists for Day 2/Saturday across much of New Mexico, southeast
Arizona, and portions of west Texas where fuels are receptive. While
the dryline is expected to surge farther east across
southwest/central Texas, fuel conditions near and south/east of
Midland appear to be less receptive overall. However, this event
will work to dry fuels over this region and may promote future risk
across this area.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 242124
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level short wave trough enters the Southwest on Day
3/Sunday while an attendant jet max pushing into the southern High
Plains, bringing an enhanced fire weather threat to the region where
fuels remain receptive. Lingering strong southwesterly flow aloft
and a departing surface low across the Midwest, will continue to
bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the southern High
Plains on Day 4/Monday. The broader troughing pattern across the
western U.S. should bring some relief to much of the Intermountain
West in the form of cooler temperatures and precipitation. Mid/upper
troughing shifts into the eastern U.S. by mid to late week, bringing
much needed additional rainfall to much of the Appalachians,
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, although some pockets of lingering dry
fuels could exist by the end of next week.
...Day 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
A strong mid-level jet and parent trough entering the Southwest and
incipient surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will
bring an expansive wind event to portions of the Southwest and
Southern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Enhanced downslope drying with west
winds of 15-25 mph behind a demarcating dry line will likely bring a
critical fire weather threat to much of southern and eastern NM, TX
Panhandle and West TX where some modifications to the 40% and 70%
critical probabilities were made. Latest forecast guidance does
suggest the potential for a corridor of Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions, including southwest winds of 30-35 mph over
receptive fuels, emerging across portions of southern and eastern NM
by Sunday afternoon.
Lingering fire weather concerns should be concentrated across the
Southwest and Southern Plains through Day 5/Tuesday as persistent
westerly flow aloft and dry conditions persist, as upper-level
troughing begins to shift into the central U.S. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced for both Day 4/Monday and Day
5/Tuesday for portions of NM and West TX to account for dry, fire
effective westerly winds encompassing portions of the Southern
Plains. Longer term model guidance indicates a lower latitude
mid-level wave moving into the Southwest and northern Mexico by the
Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday time frame. A corresponding surface low
across southern TX could bring much of eastern NM and the Southern
Plains much needed rainfall owing to more favorable Gulf moisture
return trajectories.
..Williams.. 04/24/2026
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