ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070718

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A large mid-level ridge will remain centered near the Four Corners
   region of the US on Saturday, with the strongest mid-level flow
   across the CONUS once again found along the US-Canadian border. A
   weak mid-level vorticity maximum will move across the Pacific
   Northwest, however mid-level flow enhancement looks modest with this
   feature. At the same time, monsoonal moisture will continue to
   advance northward across the West, bringing with it chances of
   afternoon thunderstorms atop a dry boundary layer.


   ... Northern Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest ...

   Modest westerly mid-level flow will be found across the region
   Saturday, especially closer to the Canadian border. Another
   potential area of enhanced mid-level flow could develop across
   northern Oregon and much of Washington in association with a passing
   mid-level vorticity maximum. 

   Common across most of the region will be the development of surface
   winds around 15 mph with higher gusts as diurnal heating and the
   associated deep vertical mixing bring down some of that enhanced
   mid-level flow. The deep mixing will also contribute to relative
   humidity falling to perhaps as low as 5% across favored areas across
   the region, with minimum afternoon relative humidity between 10-15%
   elsewhere. Given very receptive fuels across the area, elevated to
   locally critical fire weather conditions are likely. 

   One potential area for a possible upgrade will be across portions of
   the Pacific Northwest as the mid-level vorticity maximum moves
   across the area. Despite significant smoke plumes potentially
   limiting vertical mixing, terrain favored areas such as mountain
   gaps in the Cascades and within eastern portions of the Columbia
   River gorge, may see periods of higher sustained winds, leading to a
   window of potentially critical conditions. Confidence is increasing
   in this scenario, but still remains too low to highlight at this
   lead time.


   ... California Sierras, Southern/Central Nevada, and much of Utah
   ...

   Similar to Friday, thunderstorms are expected along the western
   periphery of a mid-level ridge where the advancing mid- and
   upper-level monsoonal moisture will be found. Beneath this moist
   plume, a very dry sub-cloud layer will support significant
   evaporation of falling precipitation leading to little, if any,
   appreciable rainfall. Evaporative cooling beneath these dry
   thunderstorms will result in gusty/erratic thunderstorm outflows.

   ..Marsh.. 08/07/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062158

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

   Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level short wave intrudes into the Pacific Northwest on Day
   3/Saturday and moves into the northern High Plains by Day 4/Sunday 
   within a deamplifying upper ridge. This will leave a zonal flow
   pattern in place across the northern CONUS for early next week with
   lingering fire weather concerns over portions of the Intermountain
   West. A dry thunderstorm threat will likely persist across portions
   of the Great Basin and Utah on Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday on the
   northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture across the Desert
   Southwest.

   ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Northern Intermountain West and
   adjacent northern High Plains...
   A mid-level short wave should round the flattening upper ridge over
   the West, affecting the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Saturday and
   Northern Rockies on Day 4/Sunday. Breezy west winds up to 15 mph
   (locally 20 mph) and low relative humidity will combine with
   increasingly receptive fuels across the broader northwestern U.S.
   40% critical probabilities were largely maintained for this broad
   region. Fire weather threat shifts southward mainly into
   northeastern CA/northern Great Basin eastward into WY for Day
   4/Sunday as a cold front brings slightly cooler conditions and
   lighter winds to the northern CONUS. 

   ...Southern Sierra, central Nevada and portions of Utah...
   High based convection is likely to evolve Day 3/Saturday on the
   northern periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture slowly advecting
   northward into the Great Basin. PWATs ranging of 0.60-0.80" and
   daytime instability will likely lead to isolated high-based
   thunderstorms across portions of the southern Sierra Nevada,
   south-central NV and southwestern UT. This threat will extend
   eastward into northeastern UT on Day 4/Sunday, where 10% isolated
   dry thunderstorm coverage was extended. 

   ...Day 5-8...
   Lingering dry and breezy conditions on the northwestern periphery of
   a Four Corners high will likely affect locations in the northern
   Great Basin, southern ID and WY on Day 5/Monday. 40% critical
   probabilities were introduced into southern ID on Day 6/Tuesday
   where forecast confidence is higher. However, predictability wanes
   in the long term for Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday with increasing
   ensemble spread.

   ..Williams.. 08/06/2026