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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 141606

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1106 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

   Valid 141700Z - 151200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Morning Update...
   No changes have been made to the previous forecast. In the southern
   Plains, poor overnight humidity recoveries and strong winds of 15-25
   mph (gusts up to 30 mph) this morning will further intensify the
   fire weather threat, especially across southeastern CO and adjacent
   High Plains. A cold front will push through eastern CO this evening
   with winds shifting from west/southwesterly to northerly at 15-20
   mph. While RH and cloud cover will increase behind the front, the
   initial wind shift could impact ongoing wildfires.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/14/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough will approach the southern Plains today. At the
   surface, a low will deepen in the central Plains. Dry return flow
   will continue into the Mid-Atlantic.

   ...Southeast Colorado into central Plains...
   A belt of stronger mid-level winds will overlap the region during
   the afternoon. Coupled with the deepening surface low, winds of
   20-25 mph appear possible with locally higher speeds in the
   terrain-favored areas. RH 10-15% will occur in the High Plains with
   greater potential for around 20% farther east. Winds may be equally
   strong into Kansas, but the less favorable RH/cloud cover and recent
   precipitation may modulate the overall fire weather risk.

   ...Southwest into southern High Plains...
   Moderately strong mid-level winds will extend into the southern
   Rockies. Cloud cover associated with the trough will tend to keep RH
   higher in some locations, but around 20% east of the higher terrain
   appears probable. Winds of 15-20 mph will promote an elevated fire
   weather threat during the afternoon.

   ...Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont/Mid-Atlantic...
   Dry return flow of 10-15 mph will occur during the afternoon. RH
   will generally be 25-30% as temperatures rise into the mid/upper 80s
   F. Very dry fuels in the region will support an elevated fire
   weather threat.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 141900

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...South-central CO into portions of the Southern High Plains...
   A very narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are
   expected in the lee of the southern Rockies on Day 2/Wednesday as
   gap winds increase in the afternoon. Downslope westerly winds of
   15-20 mph will combine with RH of around 15 percent atop receptive
   fuels, supporting the expansion of Elevated fire weather highlights.
   Farther east, forecast guidance is depicting RH of 10-15 percent and
   15-20 mph westerly winds to overlap portions of western OK where
   fuels are dry and receptive. Elevated highlights have been expanded
   to account for this threat. 

   ...Piedmont/Mid-Atlantic...
   Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for much of the region
   as southwesterly winds of around 10 mph (localized gusts up to 20
   mph) and low RH of 25-35 percent (localized areas less than 25
   percent) overlap 90th-99th percentile ERCs. Given the widespread
   nature of receptive fuels and multiple days of near record high
   temperatures, Elevated highlights have been expanded.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/14/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper-level trough will continue eastward into the
   Mid-South/Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Mid-level winds
   across the southern and central High Plains will weaken through the
   day. Only a modest lee trough is expected to develop during the
   afternoon.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Mid-level winds will be waning through the day. Even so, a modest
   lee trough will promote 15-20 mph winds within the region. RH could
   be quite low. Some locations could reach as low as 10% with most
   other areas reaching only 15-20%.

   ...Piedmont...
   Temperatures may be slightly warmer than on Tuesday. Upper 80s to
   near 90 appears possible. Dry air will remain in place. RH in the
   lee of the terrain could fall to under 20% locally, though 20-25% is
   more probable for most areas. Continued exceptional fuel dryness
   will again support elevated fire weather during the afternoon.

   ...Southeast Wyoming...
   Dry and breezy downslope winds are expected during the afternoon.
   While meteorological conditions may support fire weather concerns,
   there is potential for precipitation to occur on Tuesday which
   lowers confidence in the overall risk.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142204

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0504 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest Day
   3/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the
   eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope flow and a
   continued fire weather threat across the southern High Plains on Day
   3/Thursday. A more widespread fire weather threat is expected on Day
   4/Friday as the amplifying trough moves into the central U.S.
   Farther east, upper-level ridging will keep much of the Mid Atlantic
   and Southeastern U.S. dry through the week. The exceptionally dry
   fuels and occasional elevated southerly winds will pose a lingering
   fire weather threat across this region. Towards the end of the
   forecast period, another deep trough will approach western CONUS.
   While extended model discrepancy exists, fire weather concerns will
   likely continue next week in regions that have seen minimal
   precipitation.

   ...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains - Day 3/Thursday through
   Day 6/Sunday...
   On Day 3/Thursday, southwesterly flow aloft and subsequent lee
   surface troughing will support a continued fire weather threat as
   dry and breezy southwesterly surface flow extends into the
   upper-central High Plains. Southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph combined
   with RH hovering around 15 percent are expected across portions of
   the southern Plains, with 40% probabilities of Critical fire weather
   conditions maintained. North of a region of forecast precipitation
   on Day 1/Tuesday - Day 2/Wednesday, 40% Critical probabilities have
   been introduced across eastern WY, southern SD, and northern NE.
   This is to account for 15-25 percent RH and southwesterly winds of
   15-20 mph atop drying fuels. However, increasing mid/high level
   clouds may dampen the bimodal fire environment to some extent,
   precluding the introduction of 70% Critical probabilities at this
   time.

   A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the
   central CONUS by Day 4/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak
   and deepening surface cyclone across the central Plains will aid in
   stronger west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. 70%
   Critical probabilities have been maintained for Day 4/Friday across
   much of east/southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and parts of West
   Texas where extended guidance agreement portrays combined
   probabilities of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph
   winds, and the potential for an incoming cold front that may further
   exacerbate the fire environment.

   On Day 5/Saturday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may
   arise in a dry post-frontal airmass, though uncertainty in frontal
   timing and overlap of stronger winds and lower RH precludes the
   introduction of probabilities at this time. As the amplified upper
   trough exits the region on Day 6/Sunday, surface troughing across
   High Plains and surface high pressure centered over east TX will
   promote dry return flow for much of the region. Given the overall
   pattern and ensemble guidance agreement in low RH and stronger
   winds, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced.

   ...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont - Day 3/Thursday through Day 6/Sunday...
   On Day 3/Thursday, a leading shortwave will aid in the breakdown of
   the upper ridge across the East Coast. However, precipitation
   chances are minimal east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, maintaining
   dry conditions. Southwesterly winds of up to 10 mph and 25-35
   percent RH atop receptive fuels support the introduction of 40%
   Critical probabilities across the region. As the East Coast upper
   ridge breaks down ahead of the deepening upper trough over the High
   Plains on Day 4/Friday, the potential for a downslope wind event
   exists in the lee of the Appalachians. Strong west/northwesterly
   winds will traverse the Blue Ridge Mountains allowing for surface RH
   to drop as surface winds increase along the Piedmont, promoting the
   introduction of 40% Critical probabilities. On Day 5/Saturday, dry
   southwesterly flow returns to the Piedmont and broader Southeast as
   the surface low enters southern Ontario. With no expected
   precipitation across the region, 40% Critical probabilities have
   been introduced where dry and breezy conditions continue atop dry
   fuels. Chances for precipitation increase on Day 6/Sunday as the
   upper trough moves overhead, which could alleviate broader fire
   concerns. However, the extent of wetting rainfall is uncertain,
   precluding the introduction of probabilities at this time.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/14/2026
      




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