U.S. Alerts
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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150706

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Deep, longwave troughing will begin to depart offshore of the East
   Coast today as separate areas of upper troughing persist over the
   southern Plains and approach the Pacific Northwest coastline. These
   features will continue to bring chances for precipitation to much of
   the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and across portions of the southern
   Plains and ArkLaTex. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered over
   the Midwest will continue to bring cooler and drier conditions to
   much of the Southeast. Minimum RH values are forecast to range from
   20-35% today from the lower Mississippi River Valley eastward into
   Georgia and parts of South Carolina; however, generally light winds
   (10 mph or less) and only modestly receptive fuels will suppress
   overall fire weather concerns.

   ..Chalmers.. 11/15/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150721

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   A robust upper trough will pivot onshore across the West Coast on
   D2/Monday as upper ridging shifts eastward into the Great Plains
   from the Rockies/Intermountain West. Farther east, weaker upper
   troughing will linger across the Southeast as shortwave ridging
   aloft builds into the Northeast. This pattern will continue to
   support chances for precipitation across much of the West
   Coast/Intermountain West, with a separate area of rain chances
   forecast along portions of the western/central Gulf Coast. Surface
   high pressure will persist across the Ohio Valley, with modestly
   warming daytime temperatures and dry conditions forecast across
   portions of the Southeast. Minimum RH values of 20-35% should
   continue across the lower Mississippi River Valley, but light winds
   will continue to limit widespread fire weather concerns.

   ..Chalmers.. 11/15/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142133

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Surface high pressure is expected to reside across the eastern CONUS
   through next week, maintaining dry conditions amid rising daytime
   high temperatures from the lower MS River Valley into the
   Mid-Atlantic. Forecast annual ERCs will approach the 80-90th
   percentile by late next week across the Piedmont, though lighter
   prevailing winds should reduce broader fire weather concerns. 

   Meanwhile, the western U.S. will be categorized by an active
   troughing pattern through the forecast period. An initial shortwave
   trough and entrained Pacific moisture will promote precipitation
   across portions of the Interior West through Day 4/Tuesday, then
   eject into the central/northern Plains on Day 5/Wednesday. This
   system could induce enhanced downslope winds and drying across
   portions of the central Plains behind a passing cold front.
   Ambiguity in the timing of the trough ejection and potential for
   additional precipitation with the trough arrival limits
   predictability of the fire weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday.
   Furthermore, a strong upper low is forecast to move onshore and
   translate over the western CONUS late next week/weekend. However,
   too much uncertainty in the quality of mid-level moisture and
   timing/strength of the trough progression will again limit
   predictability.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/14/2026
      




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