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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 291523
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
No changes were made to the Elevated wind/RH area in place over
portions of the Pacific Northwest and adjoining regions as well the
area over the southern Plains. The latest forecast guidance remains
on track with previous outlook issuances. Surface observations as of
late this morning indicate south-southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph in
place over the southern Plains as the surface trough tightens the
pressure gradient. A well-mixed boundary layer amid hot surface
temperatures will support afternoon RHs below 20-25% across the
highlighted area.
Sufficient instability (CAPE near 100-500 J/kg) will support wet and
dry thunderstorms over portions of north-central WA later this
afternoon amid increasing dynamic lift within the left exit region
of the jet streak ahead of the approaching trough. While moisture
content ahead of this trough remains low (precipitable water values
near 0.5-0.6"), much below normal temperatures today and
accumulating rainfall likely on Day 2/Sunday where convection is
most likely to occur this afternoon. Continued cooler than normal
conditions and higher RHs persist through much of the coming week
over this area as well. While a few new lightning ignitions are not
out of the question due to dry (but moistening) fuels, they will be
significantly moderated by the aforementioned environmental
conditions over the next several days.
..Stearns.. 08/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Southeast Oregon into northeast California and northwest
Nevada...
Surface winds are expected to increase ahead of a boundary on
Saturday. Winds of 15-20 mph will be possible during the afternoon.
Elevated fire weather is expected within a narrow zone of 15-20% RH
that will reside between the surface boundary and richer mid-level
moisture/clouds to the south east.
...Southern High Plains into south-central Kansas...
The presence of a surface trough from the central Plains into the
southern High Plains will allow 15-20 mph to develop by the
afternoon. Hot temperatures underneath the upper ridge will help
lower humidity to 20-25%. Drought-stressed fuels will support an
elevated fire weather threat despite recent rainfall.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 291930
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
Only minor changes were made to the Elevated area over the southern
Plains for Day 2/Sunday based on the latest forecast guidance and
fuel dryness trends. Overall, the forecast remains on track as was
previously mentioned.
The eastern half of the Snake River Plain in southeastern ID will
experience elevated wind/RH criteria due to increased westerly
winds. However, sub-critical fuels due to recent precipitation and
below normal temperatures will preclude any highlights over that
region. Over the Black Hills and portions of nearby northeastern WY,
near-elevated wind/RH are likely to occur on Day 2/Sunday due to
strong westerly winds, but will be moderated by potential light
precipitation and sub-critical RHs. This region will remain east of
the significant cool down ongoing across much of the western CONUS,
allowing for fuels to continue curing in the absence of widespread
wetting precipitation.
..Stearns.. 08/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Southern High Plains into Southwest Kansas...
The continued presence of a surface trough from the central Plains
into the southern High Plains will allow modestly breezy/gusty winds
(15-20 mph) to develop by the afternoon. Strong surface heating will
promote 20-25% RH. While recent rainfall has occurred in some parts
of the region, extreme/exceptional drought has stressed fuels such
that fire spread remains possible. Elevated fire weather is expected
Sunday afternoon.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 292143
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs will continue impacting the Pacific
Northwest and neighboring areas of the western CONUS throughout the
Extended Outlook time frame. This will leave the northwestern
quadrant of the CONUS under periodically strong southwest to
westerly flow into early next week. Embedded disturbances will
continue to move through the persistent troughing and along the
northern periphery of the flattening/displaced upper-level ridge
centered over the southern Plains. This activity will deflect
monsoonal moisture to the south and east, but advect onshore
additional moisture from the eastern Pacific. The general consensus
does favor continued well below normal temperatures across the
western third of the CONUS much of next week along with increasing
chances for multiple days of accumulating rainfall over a good
portion of the Pacific Northwest.
...Northwest, Northern Great Basin, and Northern California...
Dry southwest flow aloft associated with continual troughing over
the northwest CONUS will promote at least a few more days of fire
weather concerns into early next week. 40% Critical probabilities
have been maintained, though the area of concern has decreased in
areal extent on Day 3/Monday, with minor adjustments for Day
4/Tuesday over northeastern CA, northwestern NC, and southeastern
OR. West to southwest winds of 15-20 mph and afternoon RH of 10-20%
will continue elevated fire weather concerns over this region. Below
normal surface temperatures will moderate the threat slightly, but
conditions will remain conducive to wildfire spread until a
significant precipitation event occurs. Increasing potential for
accumulating (widespread wetting) rainfall is introduced
mid-next-week over much of the Pacific Northwest.
...Central and Eastern Wyoming...
Continued above normal temperatures and strengthening drought
conditions are promoting fuel curing across central WY into portions
of western SD. These antecedent conditions will combine with
westerly winds as trough passages continue to result in at least
elevated wind/RH combinations over this region. Both ERCs and BIs
will climb above their respective 90th-95th percentiles, indicating
fuels receptivity is reaching critical levels across the region
where not hampered by significant green up. Additional expansion in
both time and space may be needed if strong southwesterly flow
continues over the area as some forecast guidance indicates.
...Southern Plains...
Over the southern Plains, the continued hot and dry period
exacerbating existing drought conditions will continue. However,
with the surface trough nudging eastward accompanying the center of
the high, the strongest winds combined with the driest surface
conditions will no longer coincide with the driest fuels, removing
the need for critical wind/RH probabilities.
..Stearns.. 08/29/2026
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