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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 161550
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS
COAST...
As a potent cold front traverses the region today, extensive
mid-to-high level cloud cover is expected to limit diurnal heating
across much of the southern Plains Elevated risk area. The Critical
risk area across southern coastal Texas will remain largely clear of
cloud debris until late afternoon, allowing for maximum insolation
and fuel drying.
While guidance suggests localized near-critical conditions farther
north into central Texas and Oklahoma, driven by strong
northwesterly flow aloft, the threat is tempered by a significant
drop in temperatures to 10-20 degrees below normal and the
aforementioned shading. However, the pressure gradient remains
tight; a corridor of sustained northwest surface winds of 15-20 mph,
coupled with RH values of 15-20%, warrants an expansion of the
Elevated area. This expansion now includes central Oklahoma,
northeast Texas, and a westward shift into portions of central Texas
to account for the overlap of wind and low-level moisture recovery
lags. All other outlook areas remain unchanged.
..Stearns/Williams.. 03/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry, post frontal northerly flow will overspread the southern Plains
this afternoon bringing a period of Elevated to Critical fire
weather concerns across eastern New Mexico/far west Texas and from
central Oklahoma to the middle and lower Texas Coast.
...New Mexico and far west Texas...
Dry southeasterly return flow around 15-20 mph will overlap relative
humidity reductions to 15-20 percent across portions of eastern New
Mexico into far western Texas this afternoon. Fuels within this
region remain critically dry and multiple days of windy/dry
conditions and will support maintaining an Elevated area.
...South Central Oklahoma to the Lower Texas Coast...
As the cold front shifts offshore, dry northerly flow will
overspread an area from south-central Oklahoma down to the
middle/lower Texas coast. The driest conditions are expected across
the lower Texas coast, where a Critical was maintained with this
outlook. Relative humidity around 10-15% will overlap north to
northeast winds 15-20 mph across this region. This in addition to
dry fuels will support increased fire spread potential. Confidence
has increase that Elevated conditions will extend across the middle
Texas coast and north into south-central Oklahoma, which was added
with this outlook as several new fires emerged across this region on
Sunday.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 161834
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
The Elevated area over the southern Plains was adjusted slightly
eastward to align with the latest forecast guidance. Locally
critical conditions will be possible over portions of the Texas
Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma during the Day 2/Tuesday time
frame. Additionally, this lack of moisture recovery will effectively
extend the burn period and pre-condition fuels prior to the arrival
of the strongest synoptic winds on Day 2/Tuesday afternoon.
Farther west and north, an additional Elevated fire weather area has
been introduced across north-central New Mexico, the eastern
Colorado plains, and adjacent segments of the central High Plains.
This region will experience sustained west-to-northwest winds near
15-20 mph with RHs of 15-20%. While northern portions of this risk
area may struggle to meet strict RH thresholds, the proximity to the
upper-level jet suggests these areas will see the highest wind
magnitudes, likely compensating for the marginal humidity.
..Stearns/Williams.. 03/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
A period of Elevated fire weather concerns will return on D2/Tuesday
across the southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the
northern/central Rockies, with lee troughing strengthening across
the northern/central High Plains. Strengthening southwest winds will
extend into the Southern Plains where a residual dry air mass will
promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west
TX and western OK. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20%
will overlap sustained south southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. A
corridor of near Critical to Critical conditions may be possible
within this broader Elevated. For now, confidence in coverage of
critical winds is too low to include an area at this time, given low
combined probabilities from ensemble guidance from the HREF.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 152139
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough exits the Northeast by midweek while an
upper-level ridge builds across the southwestern U.S. This expanding
ridge across the Southwest will likely bring record breaking heat to
much of the southwestern U.S. Longer term guidance suggests a return
to a more active wave pattern at least across the northern CONUS
which could introduce another cold front into the central and
southern regions of the U.S. by early next week. However, the
opportunity for meaningful rainfall across much of the Intermountain
West and central/southern Plains remains very low.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Broad northwest flow over the northern Rockies should support the
development of lee surface troughing across the northern and central
High Plains on D3/Tuesday. Strengthening southwest winds across the
Southern Plains within a residual dry air mass will promote an
increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west TX and
western OK. Some modification to the 40% critical probability area
was made based on latest model guidance, with some hints at a
corridor of enhanced southwest winds approaching 20 mph from TX Big
Bend northeastward into southwestern OK. Some uncertainty exists in
RH reductions which precludes introduction of 70% critical
probabilities at this time.
...Days 4-6/Wednesday-Friday - Central High Plains...
Persistent northwest flow aloft and subsequent surface lee troughing
response across the central/northern High Plains will promote a
multi-day dry and breezy downslope regime across southeastern WY and
adjacent NE Panhandle and far northeastern CO areas. Although some
recent precipitation has been observed, the building heat and dry
conditions should allow drying of fuels, particularly on D5/Thursday
and D6/Friday.
...Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday...
Anomalous, likely record breaking temperatures, dry conditions but
generally light winds across the Intermountain West and Southwest
will persist under a strong upper-level ridge through the weekend.
Longer term ensemble guidance does indicate some de-amplification
and eastward shift of the ridge over the weekend while a mid-level
short wave trough traverses the northern tier of CONUS. This could
invite another cold front into the Plains and related fire weather
concerns over a dry landscape but uncertainty in timing limits
predictability for the weekend time frame.
..Williams.. 03/15/2026
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