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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281647
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...Southern California...
Elevated to locally critical fire weather threat will continue for
portions of southern CA through today. Current surface observations
show accelerating east-northeast winds in response to an amplifying
offshore pressure gradient with a 1036 mb surface high pressure
situated over the Northern Rockies. Rapid drying over the last 12
hours has resulted in relative humidity falling below 15% in some
locations, collocated with east-northeast winds of 15-25 mph, with
gusts of 35-45 mph. Elevated highlights were removed for southern
Sierra Nevada as less robust winds and slightly higher relative
humidity will limit a broader fire weather threat. Poor relative
humidity recoveries heading into tonight are expected as well with
the continued offshore flow, particularly where winds remain
elevated along adjacent mountain ranges of the L.A. Basin.
..Williams.. 10/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will intensify as it digs into the lower
Mississippi Valley. In the West, an upper ridge will move into the
Great Basin. At the surface, an expansive surface high will shift
eastward with time. Breezy conditions will exists behind a cold
front surging through the southern Plains.
...Southern California...
Fire weather concerns will be focused across the typical wind-prone
areas of LA/Ventura Counties and vicinity. The offshore gradient
will be strongest during the morning and very gradually taper off in
intensity into Wednesday. Winds of 15-25 mph appear possible along
with RH in the 15-20% range. Local fuel information has suggested
that fuels will support fire spread. Elevated to possibly brief and
localized critical fire weather can be expected.
...Southern High Plains...
Dry and breezy northerly winds will persist across the region behind
the cold front. Given the current state of fuels, sustained fire
weather concerns are not expected, but locally elevated concerns
could develop.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 281940
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH TEXAS...
...South Texas...
Strong post-frontal winds from the north/northwest will bring in a
cooler but very dry air mass into TX through Day 2/Wednesday.
Relative humidity as low as 15% and north/northwest winds of 15-25
mph with 30-35 mph gusts are still expected across much of
central/south TX. Drier fuels remain across South Texas where breezy
and dry conditions will combine to promote an elevated to critical
fire weather threat across the area.
...Southern High Plains...
An expansive swath of north/northwest winds and low relative
humidity will encompass much of the southern High Plains Wednesday.
Colder temperatures, recent rainfall and fuels unsupportive of
significant fire growth will mitigate overall fire weather threat
across the region.
...Southern California...
Breezy offshore winds and very dry conditions will persist across
southern CA through Wednesday morning before slowly diminishing
through the afternoon as offshore pressure gradient relaxes.
East/northeast winds of 15-20 mph and very low relative humidity
combined with dry fuels should support an elevated fire weather
threat mainly to eastern Ventura and western L.A. Counties where
Elevated highlights remain.
..Williams.. 10/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025/
...Synopsis...
An intense mid-level cyclone will develop in the Mid-South on
Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow will overspread much of
Texas. In the West the surface high will maintain enough intensity
to support offshore winds during the early portion of the period.
...South Texas...
Rainfall deficits over the last month has lead to drought cured
grasses. Furthermore, fuel loads are above normal. With the strong
northerly/northwesterly winds during the afternoon (15-25 mph) and
15-25% RH, elevated to critical fire weather is expected. A strong
jet just off the surface will also support strong gusts, potentially
up to 35 mph.
...Southern California...
A modest and steadily diminishing offshore gradient will remain
during the morning and afternoon. A few hours of 15-20 mph winds
within the wind prone areas of LA/Ventura Counties along with 15-20%
RH will support elevated fire weather.
...Southern High Plains...
Similar to Tuesday, dry and breezy northerly winds are expected
across the region. While locally elevated conditions remain
possible, fuels are still not expected to support more significant
fire weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282139
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust surface low over the Appalachians moves northeastward into
New England through Day 4/Friday. Widespread rainfall ahead of the
low and associated cold front should reduce the fire weather threat
across the much of the eastern U.S., although a few areas in the
Southeast (southern AL/GA) could remain quite dry, receiving minimal
rainfall. Surface high pressure and attendant light wind regime
settle into the Southeast over the weekend. Upper-level ridging
across the western U.S. will keep much of the Intermountain West and
Southwest warm and dry through early next week. Offshore winds
across southern CA should wane later this week as surface high
pressure across the Intermountain West weakens.
...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday - Southeast...
A dry, post-frontal environment across the southeastern U.S. should
bring a west-northwest wind component to the region Thursday and
Friday. Dry conditions and pockets of dry fuels that remain after
sporadic rainfall from Day 2/Wednesday could elevate fire risk.
However, light winds overall should limit a larger fire weather
threat which precludes introducing critical probabilities.
...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...
Reduced offshore wind magnitude across southern California is
expected to limit significant wildfire spread potential later this
week, although dry and warm conditions should continue to dry fuels
across the region. Long term forecast guidance continues to
advertise a generally active weather regime across the eastern U.S.,
with dry return flow and frontal passages being the main focus of
concern. An absence of substantial rainfall across portions of the
southern/central High Plains along with expected frost/freeze events
could support a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread in the
coming days. However, timing uncertainty is still quite high,
limiting confidence adding critical probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 10/28/2025
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