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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 170607
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
Plains. During the afternoon, surface pressure gradients will
tighten across much of the High Plains with a cold front progressing
southwestward into southern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This
will promote Critical fire weather conditions throughout eastern New
Mexico, Texas Panhandle, and West Texas. A second shortwave impulse
will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal temperatures and
some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern Plains...
As the upper trough moves east of the Rockies, increasing mid level
flow will overspread much of the southern High Plains. At the
surface, a strengthening low will quickly traverse the upper
Midwest, dragging a cold front southward. Poor expected overnight
humidity recoveries will encourage RH in the single digits by peak
afternoon heating combined with strong southwest winds of 20-25 mph
(gusts up 40 mph). These conditions amid receptive fuels will
support Critical fire weather conditions for much of the region on
Friday. As the cold front passes through Friday evening, an abrupt
northerly wind shift with strong gusts of up to 40 mph continuing
for a few hours could impact any ongoing wildfires. However, higher
relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front are
expected to improve the fire weather environment into the overnight
hours.
Farther north, gusty post-frontal northerly winds are expected over
parts of the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly throughout
the day as temperatures cool. Brief locally elevated fire weather
conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry.
...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, westerly flow aloft
will linger over the Appalachians with weak lee surface troughing.
Westerly winds of 10 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) and decreasing RH to
less than 30 percent are expected by peak heating. These conditions
atop a drought ridden landscape and exceptionally dry fuels will
support an Elevated fire weather threat this afternoon.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 04/17/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 170608
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will move towards the upper Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley as temporary upper ridging builds over the West.
Enhanced southwest winds ahead of an eastward progressing cold front
will pose an Elevated fire weather threat across parts of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In the wake of the aforementioned upper
trough, a post-frontal dry airmass and northerly flow will promote
Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central
Plains.
...Central Plains...
Within a post-frontal environment, northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph
and RH of 15-25 percent over dry fuels will pose an Elevated fire
weather threat for portions of central NE, eastern CO, and western
KS on Saturday. However, the areal extent of fire weather highlights
may change as forecast precipitation (and perhaps some snowfall) on
Day 1/Friday may provide some relief to fuel conditions.
...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Increasing southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled
with the lack of Gulf moisture return and resultant low RH are
expected to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across much of
the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At peak heating, widespread RH
of less than 30 percent will combine with southwesterly winds of
10-15 mph atop receptive fuels. A prolonged period of above normal
temperatures and lack of appreciable rainfall continues to
exacerbate fuel conditions across this region.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 04/17/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust upper-level trough will move into the Great Lakes over the
weekend while a cold front sweeps into the Mid Atlantic by early
next week. Enhanced southwest winds ahead of the cold front should
maintain a fire weather concern for the Southeast and Mid Atlantic
on Day 3/Saturday where fuels remain very dry. Stronger northwest
winds and a dry air mass in the wake of the upper trough should
bring an enhanced fire weather threat across portions of the central
High Plains on Saturday, where little to no precipitation is
expected. Dry return flow on the western periphery of broad surface
high pressure across the eastern U.S. will bring fire weather
concerns to portions of the southern and central Plains on Day
4/Sunday. Persistent northwest flow should bring dry and breezy
conditions into early next week across portions of the Mid Atlantic
and Southeast.
...Day 3/Saturday...
...Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Dry, post-frontal northwesterly flow will pose a fire weather
concern for portions of NE, eastern CO and KS on Day 3/Saturday,
where a lack of precipitation maintains receptive fuels prompting
the addition of 40% critical probabilities. Farther east, increasing
southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled with the
lack of Gulf moisture return and resultant low RH should bring a
fire weather threat across much of the Piedmont into the Mid
Atlantic. Lack of recent and expected rainfall continues to
exacerbate fuel conditions across this region.
...Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday...
...Southern Plains...
Lee surface troughing across the central/northern High Plains as
high pressure settles into eastern TX will support a broad southerly
return flow across portions of the southern High Plains Sunday. The
enhanced south/southwest winds of 15-25 mph, low RH amid a
well-mixed boundary layer and continued receptive fuelscape supports
a higher likelihood of critical fire weather conditions across
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest KS. 70% critical
probabilities were introduced within the broader 40% area
encompassing much of the southern High Plains.
...Southeast...
A fire weather threat should persist in the absence of meaningful
precipitation over the weekend. Dry post-frontal north/northwest
flow amid exceptionally dry fuels and drought necessitated
introduction of 40% critical probabilities from central GA into the
Piedmont region of the Carolinas. Thunderstorms along the cold front
over the weekend could produce a few ignitions across the
Appalachian region over the weekend. However, wetting rains are more
probable given lack of dry sub-cloud layer supportive of evaporative
effects and overall higher atmospheric water content. The deep layer
northwest (offshore) flow aloft will support continued dry and
breezy conditions across the Southeast Day 5/Monday, where two
targeted 40% critical probabilities were added.
...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday...
Dry and breezy conditions ahead the next upper trough could reemerge
across the Southwest and Southern Plains as midweek approaches.
However, forecast uncertainty in timing and progression through the
West limits predictability of fire weather impacts across the region
for the middle of next week, precluding introduction of critical
probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 04/16/2026
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