ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130551

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Troughing will remain along the West Coast while upper ridging will
   continue to edge eastward into the Upper Midwest and Deep South for
   D2/Friday. This troughing along with monsoon moisture across much of
   the West should bring another round of isolated afternoon showers
   and thunderstorms to the northwest CA mountains into southwestern
   and central OR. Persistent dry and breezy conditions south of a
   surface trough and attendant frontal boundary across the central
   plains will bring elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the
   Southern Plains. 

   ...Southern Plains...
   Relentless heat with highs in the lower 100s will result in RH
   reductions to 15-20 percent by Friday afternoon. Breezy southerly
   winds of 15-20 mph south of a lingering surface trough across the
   Central Plains will present an elevated fire weather threat to
   portions of northwestern TX and western OK as very dry fuels remain
   across the region. A corridor of thunderstorms in proximity to a
   diffuse frontal boundary is expected to evolve over the TX/OK
   Panhandles and northeastward into southern KS. However, the
   sub-cloud boundary layer could be modified by convection on
   D1/Thursday, inhibiting the overall threat of additional dry
   thunderstorms.

   ...Northwest California and southwest/central Oregon...
   An isolated dry thunderstorm threat exists for portions of
   northwestern CA and OR Friday. Upper-level troughing across the West
   Coast, monsoon moisture and increasing instability will likely bring
   isolated convection back into the mountains of northwestern CA,
   Oregon Cascades and central OR. PWATs generally below 0.90" and
   faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories bolstered by a
   mid-level wave moving towards the Cascades, will promote limited
   rainfall in some locations. Although monsoon moisture will generally
   improve fuels over the next several days, ERC values still nearing
   the 90th percentile and should promote the potential for new
   ignitions Friday.

   ..Williams.. 08/13/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122215

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0515 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Troughing over the western CONUS will lead to high pressure nudging
   eastward across the Plains and Southeast. Expect fire concerns to
   continue across the southern Plains. Monsoonal moisture will at
   least briefly impact the Southwest, Great Basin, and much of the
   Rockies with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms.
   Meanwhile, a large trough with additional shortwave disturbances
   progressing through the flow will support increasing chances for
   mixed wet and dry thunderstorms, especially along the west and
   northern peripheries of this moisture surge. While more central and
   southern portions of the Intermountain West are likely to receive
   wetting rainfall with this event, recent large fires emerging over
   the southern Great Basin have shown the resilience of very dry fuels
   in perpetuating lightning started fires amid slightly wet
   thunderstorms.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Forecast model consensus continues to highlight an area across the
   southern Plains where afternoon RH values are forecast to fall to
   15-20% by peak heating on Day 3/Friday. With the tightening surface
   pressure gradient, confidence has increased in more widespread
   sustained southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph. A corridor of 40
   percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions exists
   from northern TX through northern OK where fuels are increasingly
   receptive.

   ...Northern California/Northwest...
   The aforementioned trough and associated mid-level shortwave
   disturbances will provide lift amid sufficient instability to
   generate probabilities of isolated morning and afternoon
   thunderstorms over portions of northwest CA and much of central OR
   on Day 3/Friday and Day 4/Saturday. As such, 10% Dry Thunderstorm
   probabilities have been expanded to include central OR. Additional
   probabilities may be needed in future outlook cycles as thunderstorm
   potential continues across the Pacific Northwest through the
   weekend. However, with each consecutive day of thunderstorm
   potential, storms will likely trend more wet than dry, precluding an
   additional area on Day 4/Saturday over central OR with this forecast
   issuance.

   ..Stearns.. 08/12/2026