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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 230645
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING...FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing across the Southwest will lift north into the
Intermountain West today, with a belt of enhanced west to
southwesterly flow overspreading the northern/central Rockies. A
surface low will deepen across Montana, with increasing
southwesterly surface gradients resulting in strengthening surface
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Elevated to
Critical fire weather conditions will be likely ahead of the front
for portions of the Northern High Plains.
...Northern High Plains...
The strengthening of the surface winds in combination with downslope
warming/drying will result in a period of Elevated to Critical fire
weather conditions across portions of northeastern WY, southeastern
MT, and western SD. Within these regions, afternoon relative
humidity reductions to around 15-25% will overlap with sustained
southwesterly winds at 20-30 mph. Additionally, above normal
temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s F are forecast. A Critical
delineation was maintained across portions of northeastern WY,
southeastern MT, and western SD where ensemble guidance continues to
show highest probabilities of sustained critical fire weather
conditions amid drying fuels (70-75th percentile ERCs). Broader
Elevated fire weather is expected from north-central Wyoming into
the Dakotas.
...Georgia...
Dry northeasterly flow is expected across portions of southern
Georgia this afternoon. Though wind speeds are likely to remain
below elevated thresholds, increased initial attack activity
associated with existing dry fuels will remain a concern.
..Thornton.. 10/23/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 230648
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Saturday. A
cold front will bring cooler conditions and increasing relative
humidity across the Northern High Plains. Breezy northeast winds
will overlap dry fuels across portions of southern Georgia Saturday
afternoon. Current forecast guidance indicates that afternoon RHs
will struggle to fall below 40-45% where winds are anticipated to be
the strongest (10-15 mph), precluding the need for any drawn areas.
..Thornton.. 10/23/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 222128
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
An upper-level high will continue nudging eastward from central into
eastern portions of the CONUS ahead of a significant trough
impacting the West. This pattern will continue near-normal
temperatures amid dry conditions over much of the Southeast US.
Vegetation in this area will become increasingly vulnerable to
burning, especially across the southern Appalachian Mountains and
the lower Mississippi River Valley, where ERCs are forecast to reach
the 90-95th percentiles. While generally weak winds will limit the
overall fire threat over much of the Southeast, breezy northeast
winds over dry fuels of southern Georgia on Day 3/Saturday are worth
noting. However, current forecast guidance indicates that afternoon
RHs on Day 3/Saturday will struggle to fall below 40-45% where winds
are anticipated to be the strongest (10-15 mph), precluding the need
for any drawn areas.
Meanwhile, a significant trough will bring widespread precipitation
to much of the western US preceding and lingering into Day
3/Saturday. This trough will then continue northeastward across the
central Plains before lifting into the Great Lakes region by
mid-next-week. This progression is likely to provide significant
rainfall to portions of the central Plains while once again leaving
portions of the northern High Plains (over parts of Wyoming and
eastern Montana) with little to no accumulation. While no major fire
weather concerns are on the horizon Day 3/Saturday or beyond, this
area will be watched closely should additional wind events
materialize.
..Stearns.. 10/22/2026
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