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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 251613
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS...
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Ample high cloud
cover is visible on satellite imagery across eastern NM and west TX,
likely to persist through the afternoon. Westerly wind gusts of
25-35 mph have already been observed this morning in southeastern NM
with RH values hovering at and below 20%. Increasing sustained
downslope winds of 20-30 mph and RH below 20% atop a dry fuelscape
will support Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for
this area. In the CO Front Range, cross-terrain surface pressure
gradients beneath an incoming 40-60 kt 700 mb jet will support gusty
downslope winds through the Central High Plains. In
central-southeastern CO, RH of 20-25% will be slightly displaced
from the strongest sustained surface winds to the north, though
local terrain-driven wind tunneling may generate isolated areas of
higher winds, so locally critical fire weather conditions may be
possible given receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Central/southern High Plains...
Moderately strong northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across
the central and southern Rockies today with lee troughing in place
across much of the central and southern High Plains. The cross
terrain surface pressure gradient will support dry, downslope winds
of 20-30 mph across portions of east-central and southeast New
Mexico this afternoon. A plume of mid-level moisture will nose into
the area through the day, fostering some high-level cloud cover and
a modest increase in surface dewpoints. Given this, guidance is not
overly confident in RH dropping below 15% for more than a brief
period. However, the increased winds overlapping a dry fuelscape
will still support a period of Critical fire weather conditions
during the afternoon.
RH values of around 20% with surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected
elsewhere across the central/southern High Plains, but locally
higher winds are possible within terrain-favored locations.
...Edwards Plateau into South-Central Texas...
A modest surface low will gradually progress southeastward across
portions of central Texas today. Winds of 15-20 mph will be possible
to the south and west of this feature. Coupled with expected RH
values of 15-20%, this will support Elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon.
...Northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northwestern
Kansas...
Strong northwesterly flow across the central Rockies will align with
a favorable cross-terrain surface pressure gradient to support a
strong downslope wind event across portions of the central High
Plains. Sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected along with
the potential for gusts up to 45-55 mph. While RH values are
forecast to remain marginal (20-25%), the strong downslope winds
will overlap with receptive fuels to support Elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon.
Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible farther north
into portions of southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle;
however, such conditions are expected to be brief given anticipated
RH increases behind an advancing surface cold front.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 251906
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...20z Update...
Elevated fire weather highlights have been maintained for areas east
of the Rockies into the Central High Plains and parts of
South-Central Texas. In Texas, a weak, dry cold front will decrease
surface RH values between 10-20% and increase sustained
northwesterly surface winds to 15-20 mph (locally higher gusts up to
30 mph possible). With dry conditions on Day 1/Wednesday and poor
overnight humidity recovery, finer fuels will likely be receptive to
fire. In the Central High Plains, low RH values of 10-20% and
northwesterly downslope surface winds of 15-25 mph atop a dry
fuelscape will support Elevated fire weather conditions in the
afternoon.
In central-southeastern Montana, a tight lee surface pressure
gradient beneath modest mid-level northwesterly flow may support a
few hours of strong downslope winds. Given light precipitation on
Day 1/Wednesday and forecast RH values between 20-30% at peak
heating, Elevated highlights have been withheld. See the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0235 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Portions South-Central Texas...
A modest surface low pressure center will shift southward across
central and southern Texas on Thursday, with a weak, dry cold front
bringing dry and breezy northerly surface winds to portions of
south-central Texas. Warm/dry conditions on Wednesday will aid in
the drying of finer fuels, thus sustained winds of 15-20 mph
overlapping RH values of 15-20% are expected to support Elevated
fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon.
...Portions of the Central and Southern High Plains...
Strengthening high pressure across the Wyoming Basin and
northwestern Colorado will support a strong cross-terrain pressure
gradient across the central Rockies underneath modest northwesterly
mid-level flow. This will favor strong downslope winds of 15-25 mph
(locally higher in terrain-favored areas) and RH values of 15-20%
downstream of the Laramie Mountains and Central Rockies. With
receptive fuels in place across the region, Elevated fire weather
highlights have been added for portions of the central and southern
High Plains.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252153
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis..
Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through the weekend
before an upper-level pattern change early next week. The current
pattern will prevail through Day 5/Sunday, aiding in continued
Elevated fire weather conditions in the Central and Southern Plains.
Day 6/Monday - Day 8/Wednesday, a transition to southwesterly flow
aloft in the Southwest and Southern Plains will evolve as a closed
low develops off the West Coast. Surface troughing and enhanced
southerly surface flow may bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains
region, limiting broader fire weather concerns in the extended
forecast period.
...Day 3/Friday - Southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle
and northeastern Colorado...
Strong mid-level flow and a coincident 700mb 40-50 kt jet may
support strong downslope winds and low RH in the lee of the Laramie
Range into the Central High Plains on Day 3/Friday. As the surface
trough strengthens across the northern High Plains, a tight pressure
gradient east of the Rockies will enhance westerly surface winds of
25-35 mph (gusts up to 50 mph near the Laramie Range) and decreased
RH values of 15-20% at peak heating. With multiple days of strong,
dry downslope winds preceding Day 3/Friday, fuels are likely to be
receptive to fire. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced
to account for this.
On Day 4/Saturday, mid-level flow slowly shifts zonal as surface
troughing pushes cooler air into the Central US while southerly flow
along the TX Gulf Coast advects moisture northward into the Southern
Plains. Dry fuels and a drought ridden landscape across the FL
Peninsula may heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered
thunderstorms pass through the region on Day 3/Friday and Day
4/Saturday. Areas that do not see sufficient rainfall may have
holdovers from potential lightning ignitions.
Some model spread exists on Day 5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday in the
overall extent of surface moisture return and southern expanse of
the backdoor cold front, but there is some concern for dry and gusty
surface winds across Eastern New Mexico ahead of the front. Given
these uncertainties, Critical probabilities have been withheld for
now.
By Day 7/Tuesday and Day 8/Wednesday, the frontal boundary should
weaken across Texas and redevelop northward allowing low-level
moisture to advect northward into the Central Plains. Considering
the overall resulting pattern, fire weather concerns appear fairly
minimal and localized through the extended forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026
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