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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 151629
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
No changes were made to the existing Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. See
previous forecast discussion for details.
..Williams.. 09/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will enter the Pacific Northwest today, bringing
slightly cooler temperatures and chances of light precipitation to
the Cascades and adjacent terrain. Ahead of the trough, dry
southwesterly flow will accelerate over the Great Basin and
rejuvenate fire weather concerns where fuels are growing more
receptive in central-eastern Nevada. High pressure will continue to
expand over the Southeast and into the central U.S. as surface
troughing promotes hot, dry, and windy conditions in northwest Texas
and southwestern Oklahoma.
...Southern Plains...
A strong low-level jet supportive of 30-40 mph wind gusts early this
morning (diminishing after 17z) may exacerbate established fires
within the landscape. A cold front will slowly progress southward
through western Kansas, eventually stalling in northwest Oklahoma
this afternoon. Compressional heating ahead of the cold front will
promote high temperatures of 100 degrees or greater across the
region. Southerly sustained winds of 10-15 mph and RH values of
15-25% will support another day of Elevated fire weather conditions
within a drought stressed environment.
In addition, sufficient boundary layer mixing will support increased
buoyancy along the front, generating scattered thunderstorms across
northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon. Lightning-induced ignitions on
the periphery of accumulating precipitation are a concern, alongside
locally strong/erratic outflow winds (see the Day 1 Convective
Outlook for details).
...Central-eastern Nevada...
Dry and breezy conditions southeast of an upper-level trough across
the Pacific Northwest will affect portions of the Great Basin. An
Elevated fire weather threat exists this afternoon where southwest
winds of 15-20 mph and RH as low as 10% will combine atop drying
fuels.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150600
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper troughing will transition into a closed low over northern
California and southern Oregon on Day 2/Wednesday, maintaining
strong southwesterly flow across the Great Basin. Hot and dry
conditions will continue across Texas and Oklahoma as high pressure
expands into the Central U.S., though much lighter winds will limit
broader fire weather concerns.
...Central-eastern Nevada...
Deep-layer southwest flow coupled with a dry airmass and efficient
daytime mixing will promote an Elevated fire weather threat for
portions of central-eastern Nevada on Day 2/Wednesday. At peak
heating, sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of
15% or less will overlap drying fuels. RH may decline to less than
10% in some valleys, but marginal fuel receptiveness will mute a
more significant fire weather concern across the area.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/15/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will pivot southward from the Pacific Northwest
and linger over northern CA for the middle of this week. Enhanced
southwest flow southeast of the low amid dry conditions and slowly
drying fuels, will promote a fire weather concern for portions of
the Great Basin for Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. Thunderstorm
potential associated with the low exists for parts of northern CA
and southwestern OR on Day 3/Wednesday with a lightning threat
moving into the northern Rockies by Thursday. However, marginal
fuels should limit impact of lightning over the landscape through
midweek. Farther east, well above normal temperatures under a
persistent upper-ridge across the southeastern U.S. will promote
even drier fuels across the region. However, lighter winds under the
ridge and sufficient low-level moisture will limit broader fire
weather concerns through the week.
...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
...Great Basin...
The upper low expected to be over northern CA will usher in a
corridor of 15-20 mph southwest winds over the Great Basin midweek.
The deep-layer southwest flow coupled with a dry air mass and
efficient daytime mixing should promote a fire weather threat
for portions of east-central NV both Wednesday and Thursday.
Although RH will likely fall below 10% in some valleys, marginal
fuel receptiveness will mute a more significant fire weather concern
across the area.
...Northern California, Southwest Oregon and Northern Rockies...
Thunderstorms associated with the upper low are expected Day
3/Wednesday across northern CA and southwestern OR, with a
thunderstorm threat extending into the northern Rockies by
D4/Thursday. Fuels continue to be a limiting factor in introducing
dry thunderstorm probabilities midweek with forecast ERC values only
climbing towards the 70th percentile by the end of the week.
..Williams.. 09/14/2026
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