ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 170642

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Heights with the western ridge will rise again on D2/Tuesday, with
   warming temperatures and dry conditions across much of the Pacific
   Northwest. Along the northern periphery of the ridge, shortwave
   passage will bring breezy conditions to the areas east of the
   Cascades. Dry and breezy conditions will also be possible south of a
   frontal boundary near and the surface trough across western Oklahoma
   into the Texas Panhandle.

   ...Portions of the Columbia Basin...
   West-northwesterly to southwesterly flow across the Cascades will
   increase wind speeds across the Cascade Gaps. West-northwesterly
   winds around 10-15 mph will in compass a broad area of the Columbia
   Basin, with stronger winds around 20-30 mph within the gaps. This
   will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around
   15-20 percent. Broadly Elevated fire weather conditions are expected
   in the lee of the Cascades, with locally Critical conditions
   possible within the Cascade Gaps. Given the localized nature of
   Critical fire weather conditions, an Elevated was maintained with
   this outlook.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Drought conditions are prominent across much of the region from the
   Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma with critically dry
   fuels. Breezy and dry conditions are expected near the surface
   trough in the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Profiles will
   be deeply mixed, with temperatures approaching the 100s F again on
   Tuesday. This will support afternoon relative humidity reductions to
   around 10-15% amid southwest winds around 15-20 mph. An Elevated
   area was maintained with this update but overnight rainfall across
   the northern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma may lead to a
   re-evaluation of fuels and reduction of the Elevated area in
   subsequent outlook updates.

   ..Thornton.. 08/17/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162141

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0441 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid/upper troughing near the West Coast will wane as the upper ridge
   across the central US retrogrades westward, allowing drier
   conditions to infiltrate much of the northwestern CONUS. Embedded
   mid-level shortwaves riding along the expanding upper ridge could
   bring isolated thunderstorms to portions of the Northern Rockies,
   while also promoting dry and breezy conditions east of the Cascades
   into the northern Great Basin. Extended guidance indicates a pattern
   shift late week as eastern Pacific troughing impinges upon the
   Northwest, bringing additional fire weather concerns.

   ...Day 3/Tuesday...
   ...Southern Plains...
   Expanding drought and continued above normal 100+ F temperatures
   will likely stay in place this week across portions of the Southern
   Plains. Increasing southerly winds are expected to evolve south of a
   nascent Central Plains surface low/trough over portions of northwest
   TX and western OK. South winds of 15-20 mph collocated with low
   afternoon RH will bring enhanced fire weather concerns to the area
   on Day 3/Tuesday. Day 2/Monday rainfall potential may lead to
   adjustments of the outlined region, though widespread accumulating
   precipitation is not forecast.

   ...Portions of the Columbia Basin...
   A split-flow regime consisting of west-northwesterly flow over
   northern WA and southwesterly flow over Oregon will increase winds
   in gap flow and terrain favored areas east of the Cascades on Day
   3/Tuesday. RH values should decrease to 25% or less amid enhanced
   wind gusts of 25-30 mph within an environment that did not receive
   accumulating rainfall, despite preceding days of thunderstorm
   activity. 40% Critical probabilities were maintained to account for
   this threat.

   ...Days 5-7/Thursday-Saturday...
   ...Northwest CONUS...
   As upper ridging expands into the Great Basin late week, an upper
   low will progress towards the West Coast and introduce stronger
   south-southwesterly flow over the Pacific Northwest. Despite some
   differences in extended guidance, the evolution of upper troughing
   depicts a favorable pattern for dry and breezy conditions to overlap
   very dry fuels across northeastern CA, southern OR, and northwestern
   NV; thus, 40% Critical probabilities were maintained on Days
   5-6/Thursday-Friday. 

   Ensemble clusters show agreement for troughing to persist over the
   Pacific Northwest through Day 7/Saturday, with enhanced southerly
   flow aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient compelling a
   favorable setup for expansive critical fire weather conditions. 40%
   Critical probabilities were introduced across the region, though
   they may need to be confined in future outlook cycles as
   moisture/thunderstorm chances are better resolved. In addition,
   embedded disturbances within the troughing pattern may increase
   thunderstorm potential as monsoonal moisture advects northward;
   however, too much ambiguity in the overlap of sufficient moisture,
   instability, and large-scale ascent precludes dry thunderstorm
   probabilities at this time.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/16/2026