|
U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 051647
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 051700Z - 061200Z
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic, clear skies this morning and poor overnight recoveries
have resulted in widespread RH values of 25-40 percent. In parts of
southeastern NM and West Texas, mostly cloudy skies will remain over
the area as the subtropical jet transports mid-high level moisture
overhead. Surface troughing in the lee of the NM high terrain
through far West TX will align with low level thermal ridging,
promoting warm afternoon temperatures and gusty westerly winds.
Widespread gusts of up to 35 mph appear likely throughout the
Plains, with locally higher gusts possible (especially along the
higher terrain). However, a tempered fuelscape due to recent
rainfall mitigates a broader fire threat.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Stronger southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an advancing upper-level
trough will move into the Southern Plains through today. A cold
front trailing behind an elongated surface low over OK should stall
across the TX Panhandle and just south of the Red River Valley this
afternoon. Farther east, a deepening upper trough over Ontario and
Quebec and associated increasing southwesterly mid-level flow will
encroach into the Northeast today. At the surface, drier pre-frontal
southwest flow will affect much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
...Mid Atlantic...
Dry, southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving
cold front across the OH River Valley is expected across the Mid
Atlantic today. Limited boundary layer moisture, leading to RH
reductions of 20-30%, and sustained south/southwest winds of around
15 mph with higher gusts will evolve by mid-afternoon in the
Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. A zone of minimal rainfall has resulted
in lingering fuel dryness across northern NC into much of central
and eastern VA. Elevated fire weather highlights where added to the
aforementioned area where most likely alignment of dry and breezy
conditions and dry fuels exist.
...West Texas...
A 60-65 knot mid-level jet in advance of an upper trough will eject
into the Southern Plains today. A cold front will stall across the
northwest TX, inhibiting dry, downslope enhanced westerly flow from
aligning with the more receptive fuels across the eastern TX
Panhandle into southwestern KS. Breezy west winds of 15-25 mph amid
relative humidity of around 15% are still expected across much of
west TX. However, recent wetting rainfall in the region has
mitigated the overall fuelscape, limiting impact from an otherwise
elevated fire weather threat.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 051836
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
An elongated upper-level trough deepens across the Great Lakes into
the Southwest Wednesday, with a broad corridor of stronger mid-level
winds over the Southern Plains. A related cold front stretching
southwestward from the Northeast into TX gradually advances east
through Wednesday afternoon before a marked southward acceleration
takes place overnight across TX. A drying and warming trend
commences Wednesday across the Intermountain West as an upper ridge
pushes into the West Coast.
...Southern New Mexico into West Texas...
Stronger mid-level flow will linger across portions of the Southwest
and TX as a more robust jet core of 75-80 knots shifts into the OH
River Valley. Stronger westerly winds of 15-25 mph south of an
advancing cold front over the TX Panhandle and enhanced downslope
drying should yield 15% RH or less across much of southern NM into
West TX. However, recent rainfall has moderated fuels across this
region, mitigating the overall fire weather threat.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 052134
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper troughing will extend along the eastern U.S. and persist
through early next week as an upper-level low over eastern Canada
remains anchored. This pattern will encourage unsettled weather and
repeated chances for precipitation across portions of the Southeast
to the Mid-Atlantic. Broader fire weather concerns may temporarily
be dampened for much of the eastern U.S. through the duration of the
forecast period, given a widespread transition to green up and
expected appreciable precipitation. An upper ridge will prevail
across the western U.S., resulting in above normal temperatures and
dry conditions to continue for much of the Intermountain West
through the forecast period.
On Day 3/Thursday, a cold front will extend from the Carolinas to
Gulf Coast with increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the front. A
deep, dry airmass and 10-15 mph westerly winds atop a drying FL
Peninsula fuelscape will enhance fire weather concerns. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to account for this threat. On
Day 4/Friday, a dry and breezy post frontal environment will
overspread the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. West-northwesterly
winds of 5-15 mph and marginal RH precludes the introduction of
critical probabilities at this time. However, an exceptionally dry
fuelscape (90-95th percentile ERCs) susceptible to increased fire
spread in terrain-favored areas may promote localized fire weather
concerns.
Beneath an upper ridge and northwesterly flow aloft, above normal
temperatures and a dry airmass will remain over much of the western
CONUS. Farther east, periodic breeziness and marginally dry
conditions are expected to continue over the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest through the weekend. Localized fire weather concerns
may emerge where stronger winds overlap dry fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/05/2026
|
