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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281646
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH...CENTRAL-SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across portions of
the West Slope and Colorado Plateau this afternoon.***
...Afternoon Update...
A targeted Extremely Critical fire weather risk area was introduced
to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. High resolution guidance depicts
a combination of sustained southwesterly 25-35 mph winds and 5-10%
RH to overlap exceptionally dry fuels and ongoing wildfires for
several hours this afternoon. In addition, a cold front will
gradually sag southward towards the Four Corners region this
evening, pushing through west-central CO and southeastern UT between
23-03z. A wind shift is expected behind the front, transitioning
broad southwesterly winds to north-northwesterly with sustained
winds of 10-15 mph (gusts over 20 mph), lasting for a few hours
before gradually diminishing overnight. RH will also increase behind
the front, bringing some relief in the form of humidity recoveries
to parts of eastern UT and western CO.
Extreme caution should be taken across the fire weather risk areas
this afternoon, as the previously mentioned weather conditions are
very conducive to rapid spread/fire growth on existing wildfires and
new ignitions. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
A longwave, upper-level trough will persist over the Intermountain
West today, with one embedded shortwave remaining relatively
stationary across the northern High Plains and a second shortwave
trough pivoting southeastward through Nevada and portions of the
Great Basin. Concurrently, an associated mid-level jet will continue
to be oriented across the Four Corners region while a surface cold
front remains relatively stationary along the western edge of the
Colorado Plateau. This will promote a third consecutive day of
enhanced dry/breezy conditions across portions of the eastern Great
Basin and Southwest today.
...Four Corners region...
A corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25+ mph
(with gusts of 35-40+ mph possible) and minimum RH values of 5-15%
is forecast this afternoon from northern Arizona into southeastern
Utah, western/southwestern Colorado, and northwestern New Mexico.
With this multi-day period of dry/breezy conditions exacerbating
fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs noted in the 80-95+ percentiles)
and the anticipation for poor overnight relative humidity recoveries
(RHs noted to be lingering at or below 15-25% across portions of the
Four Corners region as of 0530 UTC), several hours of critical fire
weather conditions (with the potential for localized extremely
critical conditions) are expected this afternoon across much of the
Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated
fire weather concerns is also forecast across adjacent areas of the
Great Basin/Southwest where winds of 15-25 mph will overlap low RH
of 10-20%. Only minor adjustments were made to the drawn areas with
this update to reflect the latest guidance.
Recent guidance also suggests that the shortwave trough rotating
through the base of the longer wavelength troughing will contribute
to a southward surge of the cold front closer to the Four Corners
region later tonight. For areas that experience this frontal
passage, some RH recovery and a shift to northerly/northwesterly
winds can be expected (with a couple hour period of sustained 10-20
mph winds possible).
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 280638
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
Longwave upper troughing will continue to remain positioned across
the Intermountain West on D2/Monday. An embedded, mid-level
shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the northern High
Plains, with the strongest mid-level flow shifting northeastward in
tandem with this feature. A second mid-level shortwave will
simultaneously pivot southeastward into the Southwest. Combined with
a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow,
this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across
portions of the Great Basin and Southwest.
...Southwest/Four Corners region...
Enhanced southwesterly, mid-level flow will continue to persist
across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region on Monday
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough forecast to pivot
southeastward into southern California Monday afternoon. This will
support sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph amid very
low RH values of 10-15%. Several days of antecedent dry, windy
conditions will continue to exacerbate fuel dryness/receptiveness
(with ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater across much of
the region). This will promote elevated to locally critical fire
weather concerns across much of Arizona, eastern Utah, western
Colorado, western New Mexico, and portions of southern Wyoming.
Occasional wind gusts of 30+ mph will also be possible, primarily
across portions of western/central Colorado where the strongest
mid-level flow is forecast to overlap a deep, well-mixed boundary
layer. Minor adjustments were made with this outlook cycle to
reflect the latest guidance.
..Chalmers.. 06/28/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 272101
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will dive into the Interior West on Day 3/Monday,
promoting strong southwesterly flow across the Southwest into the
central Rockies before gradually exiting the region on Day
4/Tuesday. Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an
established dry airmass will allow fire weather threats to continue
through next week across the Great Basin and Southwest. Meanwhile, a
strong ridge of high pressure will build across the central-eastern
CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal
temperatures with mostly dry conditions.
...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday...
Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing will maintain fire weather concerns across the Southwest
and Great Basin early next week. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions
(albeit weaker than previous days) will further intensify the fire
environment where extremely dry fuels exist, maintaining 40%
Critical probabilities.
...Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday...
Ensembles depict dry and breezy conditions may continue across the
southwestern CONUS through the end of next week. As the western U.S.
upper trough begins to lift northward, resultant accelerating
south-southwesterly flow aloft should permit fire weather concerns
to return across the Southwest and Great Basin. As such, 40%
Critical probabilities have been introduced. The spatial extent of
these probabilities may change in future outlooks as the progression
of the overall synoptic pattern is better resolved.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/27/2026
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