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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 310713
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will progress south-southeastward
while amplifying over the Northeast today, supporting surface
troughing along the East Coast as surface high pressure overspreads
the Midwest. Dry offshore flow should occur by afternoon peak
heating from the Carolinas to the Florida Peninsula. 10 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH will
encourage localized wildfire-spread potential amid dry fuels, with
Elevated highlights remaining in place. Surface lee troughing across
the Plains will encourage breezy downslope conditions along the
central and southern High Plains, though RH appears too high for
Elevated conditions at this time.
..Squitieri.. 12/31/2025
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 310719
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge over the Plains states will gradually flatten through
the day tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level impulse impinges on the
southern Rockies. Similar to Day 1, some dry downslope flow is
possible along the lee of the Rockies, over the central and southern
High Plains, with RH dipping below 20 percent in spots. Still,
forecast surface wind fields should not be overly strong, so
wildfire-spread potential should remain localized over the High
Plains. Likewise, modestly dry conditions will persist along the
Southeast Atlantic coastline, but the lack of an appreciable surface
wind field precludes fire weather highlights, though wildfire-spread
potential will locally be non-zero.
..Squitieri.. 12/31/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 302154
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
An embedded mid-level short wave moves into the Southwest Days
3-4/Thursday-Friday as a more zonal flow pattern emerges across the
central U.S. while more pronounced troughing continues across the
Northeast. The arrival of stronger westerly flow aloft subsequent
strengthening lee cyclone across the southern Plains could bring
stronger winds to portions of the southern High Plains and West TX
on Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday. A broad upper-level ridge builds over
the central U.S. over the weekend into early next week straddled by
troughing across the West and Northeastern CONUS.
...Southeast U.S....
Although dry conditions across the Southeast will persist with
minimal recent precipitation and moderately dry fuels in place,
winds should be relatively light with a more diffuse surface
pressure gradient in place. Increasing boundary layer moisture ahead
of a surface cyclone on Day 4/Friday will further limit the fire
weather threat across the Southeast and FL, with rainfall expected
Day 5/Saturday as the surface low and frontal boundary translates
eastward along the northern Gulf Coast.
...Southern/Central Plains...
Lee surface troughing and increasing westerly flow aloft will
promote enhanced surface winds across the Southern Plains on Day
3/Thursday before a cold front moves through the region Day
4/Friday. However, anomalously high mid/upper-level Pacific moisture
and cloud cover being ushered into the Southwest could be a
considerable mitigating factor in suppressing a greater fire weather
concern in terms of RH reductions across the Southern Plains late
this week, limiting predictability in a broader critical fire
weather event. Ensemble guidance consensus continues to show an
overall favorable mid/upper level westerly flow pattern for dry,
downslope conditions across the central and southern High Plains
early next week. However, timing and magnitude of surface cyclone
development and return flow events is still nebulous, which
precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 12/30/2025
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