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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 151632
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...Southern High Plains...
The eastern extent of the Elevated risk area has been trimmed back
slightly across western OK and the TX Rolling Plains. This is to
account for recently observed precipitation, marginal fuels, and
lighter surface winds during peak heating. In the lee of the
southern Rockies, poor overnight humidity recoveries are expected to
further exacerbate the local fire environment. Morning observations
portray 30 mph wind gusts and less than 25 percent RH in gap flow
areas with clear skies overhead. As deeper mixing occurs this
afternoon, RH is expected to bottom out around 10 percent locally
atop very dry fuels.
...Eastern WY/NE Panhandle/southwestern SD...
Westerly winds of 10-20 mph combined with RH of 20-25 percent will
promote locally elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours
this afternoon in sporadic areas that did not see recent
precipitation. Increasing mid-level cloud cover this afternoon is
expected to maintain marginal RH values, precluding the introduction
of Elevated highlights.
The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough will depart the southern Plains through the
day today. A weak lee trough will develop in the High Plains. Dry
return flow will continue in the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern High Plains...
Modest mid-level winds across the southern Rockies will promote a
weak lee trough to the east. Surface winds of 15 to locally 20 mph
are possible amid a dry airmass (10-20% RH by the afternoon).
Elevated fire weather is expected given continued lack of rainfall
and dry fuels.
...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected during the afternoon as
temperatures warm into the mid 80s to low 90s F. RH of 25-35% is
probable for most areas, but values closer to 20% may occur locally.
Very dry fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 151935
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...Central/southern High Plains...
Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced across eastern
CO into portions of the southern High Plains. Sustained
southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) amid 10-15
percent RH (single digits locally) are expected atop very dry and
receptive fuels, increasing critical fire weather concerns. While
high clouds are anticipated later in the afternoon, ongoing poor
humidity recoveries and dry/breezy conditions on Day 1/Wednesday
will promote an earlier start to the fire environment on Day
2/Thursday. Farther north, Elevated highlights have been expanded to
encompass much of the High Plains. Widespread south/southwesterly
winds of up to 20 mph and RH of 15-20 percent will overspread a
region of 80th-95th percentile ERCs. An abrupt northerly wind shift
is expected as a sharp cold front progresses southeastward in the
early evening, potentially impacting active fires. However, chances
for light precipitation, colder temperatures, and increasing RH will
provide relief to the fire environment overnight for much of the
central High Plains.
...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont...
Elevated highlights have been trimmed to only include areas east of
the Appalachian Mountains as latest model guidance suggests higher
RH trends Thursday afternoon in the eastern TN Valley. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track as multiple days of above normal
temperatures and dry/breezy conditions have contributed to very dry
fuels with widespread 90th-99th percentile ERCs. Southwesterly winds
of 10 mph or greater (gusts of 20+ mph) and 25-35 percent RH will
support elevated fire weather concerns across the region.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will dig into the southern Great Basin/Four
Corners on Thursday. A modest subtropical jet stream will develop
across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
strong low pressure system will deepen in the vicinity of the Black
Hills. A fairly strong cold front will progress southward into the
central Plains.
...Southern New Mexico into central High Plains...
This region will generally exist in between the developing southern
stream jet and the digging trough to the northwest for most of the
period. Some increase in mid-level winds may occur by late
afternoon, however. A very dry airmass is expected. RH could
approach single digits locally, but will more broadly be 10-20%.
This is forecast despite increasing mid/upper clouds with time. The
overall expectation is for elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions. Sustained critical could occur locally, but confidence
highlighting where this will occur remains low.
...Far eastern Wyoming into Nebraska/South Dakota...
As the surface low deepens, winds of 15-20 mph will be possible. RH
values of 10-20% will occur during the afternoon. The strongest
mid-level flow will generally remain farther west of the region
which should limit the potential for sustained critical conditions.
Further, the cold front is forecast to progress southward which will
lead to a stark shift to northerly winds and greater RH. Given the
strength of the front, the more southern frontal solutions have been
weighted higher in this forecast.
...Southern Appalachians into Mid-Atlantic...
The persistent dry return flow pattern will continue another day.
Temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s F will again promote a broad
area of reduced RH values during the afternoon. 25-35% will again be
common, but areas near 20% are still possible. Winds will still be
somewhat weak at 10-15 mph, but very dry fuels will still support a
elevated fire weather threat.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142204
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest Day
3/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the
eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope flow and a
continued fire weather threat across the southern High Plains on Day
3/Thursday. A more widespread fire weather threat is expected on Day
4/Friday as the amplifying trough moves into the central U.S.
Farther east, upper-level ridging will keep much of the Mid Atlantic
and Southeastern U.S. dry through the week. The exceptionally dry
fuels and occasional elevated southerly winds will pose a lingering
fire weather threat across this region. Towards the end of the
forecast period, another deep trough will approach western CONUS.
While extended model discrepancy exists, fire weather concerns will
likely continue next week in regions that have seen minimal
precipitation.
...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains - Day 3/Thursday through
Day 6/Sunday...
On Day 3/Thursday, southwesterly flow aloft and subsequent lee
surface troughing will support a continued fire weather threat as
dry and breezy southwesterly surface flow extends into the
upper-central High Plains. Southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph combined
with RH hovering around 15 percent are expected across portions of
the southern Plains, with 40% probabilities of Critical fire weather
conditions maintained. North of a region of forecast precipitation
on Day 1/Tuesday - Day 2/Wednesday, 40% Critical probabilities have
been introduced across eastern WY, southern SD, and northern NE.
This is to account for 15-25 percent RH and southwesterly winds of
15-20 mph atop drying fuels. However, increasing mid/high level
clouds may dampen the bimodal fire environment to some extent,
precluding the introduction of 70% Critical probabilities at this
time.
A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the
central CONUS by Day 4/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak
and deepening surface cyclone across the central Plains will aid in
stronger west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. 70%
Critical probabilities have been maintained for Day 4/Friday across
much of east/southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and parts of West
Texas where extended guidance agreement portrays combined
probabilities of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph
winds, and the potential for an incoming cold front that may further
exacerbate the fire environment.
On Day 5/Saturday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may
arise in a dry post-frontal airmass, though uncertainty in frontal
timing and overlap of stronger winds and lower RH precludes the
introduction of probabilities at this time. As the amplified upper
trough exits the region on Day 6/Sunday, surface troughing across
High Plains and surface high pressure centered over east TX will
promote dry return flow for much of the region. Given the overall
pattern and ensemble guidance agreement in low RH and stronger
winds, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced.
...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont - Day 3/Thursday through Day 6/Sunday...
On Day 3/Thursday, a leading shortwave will aid in the breakdown of
the upper ridge across the East Coast. However, precipitation
chances are minimal east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, maintaining
dry conditions. Southwesterly winds of up to 10 mph and 25-35
percent RH atop receptive fuels support the introduction of 40%
Critical probabilities across the region. As the East Coast upper
ridge breaks down ahead of the deepening upper trough over the High
Plains on Day 4/Friday, the potential for a downslope wind event
exists in the lee of the Appalachians. Strong west/northwesterly
winds will traverse the Blue Ridge Mountains allowing for surface RH
to drop as surface winds increase along the Piedmont, promoting the
introduction of 40% Critical probabilities. On Day 5/Saturday, dry
southwesterly flow returns to the Piedmont and broader Southeast as
the surface low enters southern Ontario. With no expected
precipitation across the region, 40% Critical probabilities have
been introduced where dry and breezy conditions continue atop dry
fuels. Chances for precipitation increase on Day 6/Sunday as the
upper trough moves overhead, which could alleviate broader fire
concerns. However, the extent of wetting rainfall is uncertain,
precluding the introduction of probabilities at this time.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/14/2026
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