ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 171650

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

   Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
   OKLAHOMA...

   The Critical area over the southern Plains was expanded to include a
   slightly larger portion of central Texas and into nearby areas of
   southwestern Oklahoma. Forecast guidance is indicating that this
   region will experience at least a few hours of slightly stronger
   westerly winds, sustained at 15-25 mph with minimum RHs near 10-20%.
   Surface observations over this area are already indicating a
   tightening pressure gradient with sustained southwest winds up to
   15-20 mph and RHs dropping into the mid-teens. Over central Wyoming,
   the latest forecast guidance shows that much of central portions of
   the state are not expected to reach elevated criteria with RH
   struggling to fall below 30%. Thus, portions of the Elevated area
   were trimmed toward the south commensurate with the spatial extent
   of the lowest RHs in this area. All other areas remain on track.

   ..Stearns/Williams.. 03/17/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today
   across the High Plains and southern Plains. Very dry conditions are
   prevalent across the central CONUS in the wake of a strong frontal
   passage (dewpoints in the single digits to low teens over the Plains
   are near/below the 10th percentile for mid-March). Surface high
   pressure over the southern CONUS will continue to shift east through
   the day as a lee trough deepens along the High Plains. The resulting
   pressure gradient winds across the southern Plains and off downslope
   flow the western slopes of the Rockies will promote elevated to
   critical fire weather conditions over regions with recent wildfire
   activity. 

   ...Southern Plains...
   Forecast guidance continues to show strengthening southwest winds
   through the afternoon across central TX to central OK as the
   pressure gradient strengthens with the deepening surface trough
   along the High Plains. Relative humidity reductions will be most
   pronounced (and possibly as low as 10-15%) from western TX into
   southwest OK under the low-level thermal ridge. Model consensus
   suggests winds through this corridor will increase to 15-20 mph;
   however, guidance typically under-mixes the boundary layer in dry
   return flow regimes with higher RH values and weaker winds than
   actually observed. Based on this, the expectation is that winds
   under the thermal ridge will likely be sustained near 20 mph, which
   will increase the probability of sustained critical fire weather
   conditions. A targeted critical risk area has been introduced across
   this region.

   ...Central to southern High Plains...
   Westerly 15-20 mph winds off the central to southern Rockies will
   support several areas of elevated fire weather conditions from
   central and southeast WY southward into West TX. Forecast guidance
   show reasonably good agreement in RH reductions down to 20% with
   areas of 15% possible. Solutions that typically over-mix in these
   regimes (notably the RAP and HRRR) hint that 20-25 mph winds are
   possible across southeast WY into far northeast CO and parts of the
   NE Panhandle where active wildfires have been ongoing in recent
   days. Confidence in sustained critical conditions across this
   corridor is limited due to spread in guidance and poor ensemble
   agreement, but given the very dry conditions, observed trends will
   be monitored for the need for Critical highlights.