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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 141630
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
Some areas received wetting rains (greater than 0.10") across
eastern WY and adjacent High Plains of NE/SD. This has temporarily
reduced the fire weather threat for today, with a reduction made on
the eastern extent of elevated highlights across northeastern WY
into far western SD. Elevated fire weather conditions are still
expected across much of central WY into far southeastern MT where
less rainfall occurred. Meteorological conditions will reach
Critical levels across southern WY to include sustained west winds
of 20-30 mph and RH as low as 10%, but at least some rainfall over
the past 24 hours and cloud cover will moderate overall fire
environment today.
..Williams.. 09/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today as a strong jet
streak associated with an upper-level low progresses from the
Northern Rockies into the Northern Great Plains. Meteorological
conditions will reach well into Critical criteria for wind and RH,
but ongoing precipitation and a somewhat unfavorable fuelscape will
generally temper the fire-weather concerns. Across portions of
western North Texas into southwest Oklahoma, Elevated fire-weather
conditions are expected as lee trough development in response to the
aforementioned jet streak results in dry and breezy conditions.
...Wyoming...
Precipitation from high-based thunderstorm activity over critically
receptive fuels in Wyoming early this morning will complicate
aspects of the forecast today. However, 25-30 MPH winds and relative
humidity of 10-15% are still expected this afternoon. While some
areas receiving precipitation may have a reduced ignition threat,
rainfall amounts should remain under a half inch and are not
widespread enough to completely wet all available fuels.
Meteorological conditions are well into Critical territory for wind,
but the ongoing precipitation and low fuel density support
maintaining Elevated highlights at this time.
...Western North Texas into southwestern Oklahoma...
Dry and breezy southerly flow of 15-20 MPH is expected to develop
across much of the Southern Plains in response to lee troughing and
surface low development. The current expectation is that afternoon
relative humidity will reach around 25% with some localized areas
reaching 20%. Despite the more marginal relative humidity, these
conditions overlap with critically receptive fuels, with ERCs in the
90th-95th annual percentile ranges, supporting an Elevated threat
for wildfire ignition and spread.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 140623
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
Dry southwesterly flow is forecast to return to the Great Basin on
Tuesday as an upper-level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over portions of
east-central Nevada.
...East-central Nevada...
Southwesterly to southerly winds of 15-20 MPH are forecast by
mid-afternoon across central and eastern Nevada, while relative
humidity is expected to be in the vicinity of 10-15%. Forecast
guidance for fuels has ERCs reaching the 80th annual percentile as
fuels continue to cure, supporting an Elevated fire-weather threat
for Tuesday.
..Halbert.. 09/14/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132119
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper trough and associated mid-level jet will push into the
Great Lakes region by D3/Tuesday while another trough enters the
Pacific Northwest. A potential cut-off develops across the western
U.S. bringing dry and breezy conditions southeast of the low to
portions of the Great Basin Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday. An expansive
ridge will persist over the southeastern CONUS into the weekend
yielding above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions for
much of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep
South. However, diffuse surface pressure gradients will keep winds
on the light side amid lingering Gulf moisture that should limit a
more significant fire weather threat across the region.
...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Great Basin...
An upper-level trough/low and associated enhanced southwesterly
mid-level winds are expected to push into the Pacific Northwest on
D3/Tuesday before moving into the northern CA/northern Great Basin
for midweek. The dry southwest flow should bring a fire weather
threat to portions of central and eastern NV midweek as fuels
continue to dry with ERCs rebounding into the 80th percentile by
late week. 40% critical probabilities have been introduced into
central/eastern NV for Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday.
...Southern Plains...
A southerly wind on the western periphery of a surface high pressure
over the southeastern U.S. is likely to continue each afternoon
across portions of the Southern Plains this week. Fuels remain
receptive across portions of the Southern Plains but alignment of
stronger winds (greater than 15 mph) and critically low RH is not
likely based on latest medium range ensemble guidance as somewhat
deeper Gulf moisture persists across the region.
..Williams.. 09/13/2026
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