ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 291853

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were maintained across central
   Idaho into western Montana for Day 2/Thursday. While limiting
   factors to storm initiation (listed in the previous discussion)
   still apply, high-resolution guidance continues to depict afternoon
   (and possibly nocturnal) thunderstorms. Considering ERCs greater
   than the 90th percentile across the region, and several ongoing
   wildfires, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out within the
   increasingly receptive fuelscape. The rest of the forecast remains
   on track, see the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/29/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper high will continue to slowly drift westward over the
   Southwest and likely expand from off the southern California coast
   through the southern Plains. Upper-level heights are likely to build
   over the Intermountain West, but an upper-level trough will approach
   the Pacific Northwest during the evening and overnight.
   Additionally, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is likely to precede
   the larger trough and move over northern California and Oregon into
   Idaho from late afternoon through overnight. 

   An IsoDryT area was maintained from central Idaho into western
   Montana. There is some concern regarding thunderstorm development
   due to building heights aloft and widespread, thick smoke across the
   region. Given these potential constraints, high-based showers with
   little to no lightning are possible. However, high-resolution
   forecast guidance still indicates the potential for isolated to
   perhaps scattered thunderstorms. If the mid-level shortwave arrives
   slightly earlier than currently forecast (i.e., around peak
   heating), this could provide enough instability and forcing for
   ascent aloft to increase thunderstorm chances and coverage.
   Regardless, given the forecast PWAT values of 0.5-0.8" and expected
   high LCLs with a dry sub cloud layer, most showers/storms will
   produce little to no wetting rain. 

   Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely across portions
   of the Inland Northwest into northern California and the
   western/northern Great Basin. The onshore pressure gradient across
   the Northwest will strengthen with the approaching upper-level
   trough and a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will develop farther
   south across much of the Great Basin. This will result in
   west-southwest sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph
   amid minimum RH of 5-20%.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 292146

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

   Valid 311200Z - 061200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level troughing should persist over the northeastern CONUS
   into early next week, while high pressure will remain centered over
   the Desert Southwest through the forecast period. Upper-level
   troughing is forecast to continue across portions of the Pacific
   Northwest through the weekend, with an eastern Pacific upper-level
   low approaching the region on Day 3/Friday. Ensemble guidance
   suggests the upper low will move onshore Day 4/Saturday, inducing
   lee cyclogenesis east of the Canadian Rockies and sending an
   associated dry cold front southward. This feature will reinforce
   gusty surface winds amid a dry airmass across portions of the
   Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Basin through Day 6/Monday.
   Next week, long-range model guidance begins to differ in the
   progression of the overall upper pattern. Some solutions depict a
   temporary ridge to rebuild over the western CONUS, while others
   portray a shortwave trough impinging upon the Pacific Northwest.  

   ...Days 4-6/Saturday-Monday - Northwestern US...
   As the upper low transitions into British Columbia and a surface low
   amplifies across southern Alberta on Day 4/Saturday, a dry cold
   front will progress southward through the Pacific Northwest. East of
   the Cascades, a tightening surface pressure gradient and a 700 mb
   40-50 kt jet will promote strong surface winds amid a very dry
   boundary layer -- allowing greater potential for critical fire
   conditions to materialize, especially where ERCs are approaching the
   95th percentile. As such, 70% Critical probabilities have been
   introduced across the Columbia Basin. 40% Critical probabilities
   have been maintained on Day 4-5/Saturday-Sunday across the northwest
   CONUS and the northern Great Basin where hot, dry, and windy
   conditions are forecast to overlap dry fuels. On Day 6/Monday,
   stronger southwest/westerly flow aloft will finally begin to exit
   the region, pushing into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
   Nevertheless, residual dry and breezy conditions are expected across
   the northern Great Basin into western Wyoming, supporting the
   introduction of 40% Critical probabilities.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/29/2026