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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 060713
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen today ahead
of an incoming mid-level trough shifting into the Pacific Northwest
and as a second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses
eastward over the Southwest. Concurrently, longwave troughing will
persist across the Northeast, with a cold front progressing slowly
southward across the central Great Plains and Midwest.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Surface high pressure across the southern Great Plains in tandem
with a surface low forecast to strengthen over eastern Colorado will
promote a tightened pressure gradient across portions of the
central/southern High Plains today. Sustained south-southwesterly
surface winds of 20-25 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of
10-15% for several hours this afternoon. With dry conditions across
the region on Sunday helping to further pre-condition already
receptive fuels, this combination of wind/RH is expected to support
Critical fire weather conditions across the western Oklahoma
Panhandle, northern Texas Panhandle, northeastern New Mexico,
southeastern Colorado, and southwestern Kansas. Meanwhile, sustained
15-20 mph surface winds overlapping low RH of 15-20% will promote
elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the
central/southern High Plains.
Latest guidance consensus continues to suggest that the
aforementioned, slow-moving cold front will approach the northern
portions of the drawn area after sunset before becoming largely
stationary. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can
expect a shift to east-northeasterly winds and at least some
increase in relative humidity. The progression of this front will be
closely monitored with future outlook issuances.
..Chalmers.. 04/06/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 060714
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will continue to dampen on Day
2/Tuesday as an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest moves
eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave
trough ejects eastward over the southern Great Plains. This will
favor largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern
Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South
Florida, with high pressure in place across the Midwest. A surface
low will simultaneously shift eastward along the Canada/Montana
border.
...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle...
Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southern
periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region
are forecast to overlap reduced RH values of 25-35% (locally lower)
during peak mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place
across a region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought
and little to no precipitation accumulation over the past 24-48
hours, this is expected to promote a few hours of elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions from eastern Georgia
southwestward into the central Florida Panhandle, including the
Apalachicola National Forest. Additional light rainfall is possible
tonight/tomorrow across portions of the northern Florida Peninsula
into the eastern Panhandle (in the vicinity of the southern portions
of the drawn area), and this will be monitored for future outlook
issuances.
...Portions of the central High Plains...
The aforementioned zonal flow across portions of the
central/northern Rockies is expected to promote dry, downslope flow
across portions of the central/northern High Plains. Latest guidance
indicates that sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph may briefly
overlap reduced RH of 15-20% Tuesday afternoon across portions of
eastern Wyoming. While this may promote locally elevated fire
weather concerns across the region, Elevated highlights have been
withheld at this time given the expected temporary overlap of
elevated winds/RH. Trends will continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers.. 04/06/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 052012
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Upper-level ridging over the western US will continue to dampen on
Day 3/Tuesday due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
This trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern
half of the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 5/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 7/Saturday before moving
inland and contributing to potentially multiple days of
precipitation, particularly over California and the Great Basin.
...Southeast (Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of the southern
Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and South
Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Tuesday across southern Georgia and Day
4/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. This
regime will contribute to northeast 10-15 mph winds combined with
RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating periods over the
aforementioned areas on the respective days. As such, 40%
probabilities were included over these areas.
...Southern Plains (Day 4/Wednesday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains again on Day 4/Wednesday. Much
of this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system moves inland late in the week.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday)...
Some potential for critical conditions will exist across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest as the upper-level ridge continues to
erode on starting on Day 3/Tuesday. The best chances for sporadic
fire weather conditions under the southerly flow will occur on Day
4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. However, recent cooler weather,
precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
additional precipitation also appears likely with the aforementioned
low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/05/2026
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