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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 101632

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1132 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

   Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

   ...Morning Update...
   The previous forecast remains on track as no changes were made to
   the Elevated fire weather risk area over eastern UT into western CO.
   For portions of the Ohio River Valley, current RH of 30-40 percent
   is expected to be short-lived, as increasing cloud cover and surface
   moisture ahead of an approaching cold front reduces broader fire
   concerns. 

   For parts of eastern NM into the Caprock and TX/OK Panhandles, a mix
   of wet and dry thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening has the
   potential for lightning ignitions as fuels remain receptive.
   However, 10-15 kt storm motions, increasing PWATs of 0.7-1.0 in.,
   and the expanding coverage of showers this evening precludes the
   introduction of a dry thunderstorm risk area. Gusty and erratic
   outflow winds are likely with any afternoon thunderstorm, locally
   enhancing fire weather concerns for new ignitions and ongoing fires
   from yesterday's lightning starts.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Nauslar.. 04/10/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level ridging will shift eastward today from the eastern Great
   Basin into the Great Plains as longwave upper troughing shifts
   across the northern Great Lakes region and the Northeast. Meanwhile,
   a mid-level shortwave trough will progress northeastward across
   California and the western Great Basin while another upper trough
   approaches the California coastline behind it. A slow moving cold
   front will progress south-southeastward across the Northeast, Ohio
   River Valley, and central Great Plains, with surface high pressure
   positioned across the Southeast and Great Lakes regions.

   ...Portions of the Great Basin...
   Surface low pressure across the northern Great Basin in conjunction
   with high pressure across the Great Lakes/Southeast will promote a
   tightened pressure gradient and resultant sustained southerly
   surface winds of 15-25 mph across much of the eastern/southern Great
   Basin today. Despite increasing mid/high cloud cover, minimum RH
   values of 15-20% (locally down to 10%) are forecast during peak
   mixing this afternoon. With preconditioned, drying fuels from
   Thursday, this combination of winds/RH is expected to support
   elevated fire weather concerns today across portions of eastern Utah
   into northwestern Colorado. Locally critical conditions may be
   possible should stronger surface winds overlap with locally lower RH
   values, but these conditions are expected to remain brief should
   they materialize. Deep boundary layer mixing and modestly strong
   mid-level flow (25-35 kts within the 700-500 mb layer) will also
   support the potential for periodic gusts up to 30-35 mph across the
   region.

   ...Portions of the mid/upper Ohio River Valley...
   Ahead of an approaching cold front, west-southwesterly sustained
   winds of 10 mph (with occasional gusts of 15-20 mph) combined with
   RH values dropping to 30-35% are expected to overlap a region of
   drying and potentially receptive fuels from northeastern
   Kentucky/southern Ohio into northeastern West Virginia and
   southeastern Pennsylvania. With ERCs across this region approaching
   the 97th percentile, this overlap of winds/RH may support a few
   hours of locally elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. A
   passing cold front will bring a shift to northerly winds, increasing
   moisture, and decreasing winds speeds later this evening, which
   should provide some relief to the fire environment. Coupled with low
   confidence in widespread sustained winds exceeding 15 mph during the
   afternoon, Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 101935

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...Afternoon Update...
   Elevated fire weather highlights were added for portions eastern WY,
   northwestern NE Panhandle, and southwestern SD. As a strengthening
   surface low traverses northern MT, tightening surface pressure
   gradients and surface lee troughing east of the Rockies will promote
   seasonably warm, dry and breezy west-southwesterly flow. RH of 15-20
   percent and sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph
   (gusts up to 30 mph) atop recently receptive fuels will promote
   elevated fire weather concerns. An overlapping area of Isolated Dry
   Thunder has also been introduced, extending farther into
   northeastern CO and the western NE Panhandle. Large scale ascent
   associated with an approaching shortwave trough is expected to
   provide enough forcing in a region of adequate instability (200-350
   J/kg MUCAPE) for afternoon and evening isolated to possibly
   scattered thunderstorms. Provided a near 3 km deep dry sub-cloud
   layer, gusty and erratic winds will further enhance the fire
   environment with any new fire starts.

   Isolated thunderstorms are likely across portions of northern AZ
   into central/eastern UT and western CO. While elevated winds/RH and
   a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across these areas,
   anticipated rainfall and marginal fuels preclude the introduction of
   Elevated and IsoDryT areas at this time.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Nauslar.. 04/10/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level ridging will shift from the Great Plains to the eastern
   CONUS as longwave troughing shifts offshore of the Northeast on
   D2/Saturday. A closed upper-level low will simultaneously approach
   the California coastline while a mid-level shortwave trough
   traverses northeastward across the Great Basin and northern Great
   Plains. A cold front will slowly move southward across the
   Mid-Atlantic while a warm front lifts northeastward across the Great
   Plains. Surface high pressure will remain in place across the
   Southeast and Great Lakes.

   ...Portions of the Great Basin...
   Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph may briefly
   overlap reduced RH values of 15-20% across the eastern/southern
   Great Basin. This may promote the potential for locally elevated
   fire weather concerns across portions of eastern Utah and
   northeastern Arizona Saturday afternoon where fuels will have been
   preconditioned by a couple of days of dry, breezy conditions.
   Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time, however, due to
   the potential for sporadic showers during the afternoon as well as
   uncertainty regarding lingering mid/high cloud cover, which may
   inhibit greater boundary layer mixing and thus temper RH reductions.
   Trends will continue to be monitored for future outlook issuances.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092212

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0512 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

   Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   On Day 3/Saturday through Day 4/Sunday, an upper-level low is
   forecast to move onshore of the northern California coast as an
   upper-level ridge strengthens over the central and eastern CONUS. A
   lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 5/Monday, slowly
   shifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day
   7/Wednesday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of
   precipitation across much of the western and central US, which would
   temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Continued upper-level
   ridging through Day 6/Tuesday across the eastern CONUS should
   promote above normal temperatures and drying conditions for much of
   the region, though increased chances of precipitation return towards
   the middle of next week as the upper trough shifts east.  

   ...Ohio River Valley - Day 4/Sunday...
   Increasing potential for 10-15 mph southerly winds and 30-40 percent
   RH will present potential fire weather concerns across northeastern
   AR into portions of the Ohio River Valley. Parts of this region
   range from D2-D4 drought, and given widespread observed ERCs above
   the 90th percentile, 40 percent probabilities for Critical fire
   weather have been introduced. The expanse of the drawn area may be
   adjusted in future outlooks as guidance evolves the northward extent
   of gulf moisture advection. 

   ...Southern/Central Plains - Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday...
   Fire weather conditions may return on Day 4/Sunday as a more potent
   shortwave moves across the High Plains. With uncertainty in
   precipitation accumulation and the extent of wetting rainfall
   earlier in the forecast period, probabilities have been withheld on
   Day 4/Sunday for now. Beneath the large upper trough, tight surface
   pressure gradients Day 5/Monday-Day 6/Tuesday will further enhance
   dry and windy conditions behind the dryline. 40 percent
   probabilities of Critical fire weather have been introduced on both
   days to account for these concerns.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026
      




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