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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 050726
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper ridging will prevail across the central U.S., with
an embedded mid-level impulse poised to impinge on the southern
Rockies today. Gradual surface low deepening will commence across
the central Plains during the afternoon, encouraging both westerly
isallobaric and downslope surface flow along portions of the central
and southern High Plains, where Elevated highlights are in place.
Here, fuels continue to cure given the absence of rain, and
widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-25
percent RH should overspread these fuels for several hours this
afternoon. Guidance consensus also depicts a corridor of locally
stronger flow (i.e. 20 mph winds amid 15 percent RH) across portions
of the Texas Panhandle, where Critical highlights have been
maintained.
..Squitieri.. 01/05/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 050742
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
Weak surface lee troughing is expected across the High Plains
tomorrow (Tuesday) beneath zonal westerly flow aloft. While dry
surface air (i.e. 20-25 percent RH) will overspread the central and
southern High Plains, westerly surface winds should be generally too
weak to support widespread wildfire-spread potential over most
locales. One exception may be portions of western Nebraska and
immediate adjacent areas. Here the latest guidance depicts 15-20 mph
sustained westerly surface winds overlapping the 20-25 percent RH
for several hours Tuesday afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights.
..Squitieri.. 01/05/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 042142
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
Fire weather concerns limited/low confidence through the extended
period. Quasi-zonal flow pattern will be in place across the Plains
on D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday. Though flow aloft will remain
strong, at the surface gradients will relax as a surface high builds
in. A few pockets of dry/breezy conditions will remain possible
across portions of the central High Plains. Overall, no widespread
fire weather concerns are noted.
The next longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western
US on D5/Thursday. A surface low is progged to develop across the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs,
southerly flow will increase with moisture advection into the
western portion of the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and
Missouri River Valleys. Guidance differs on exactly how far into the
Plains this moisture reaches, and as such, how much precipitation
will occur with the developing low. The trend over the last 36-48
hours is wetter for D5/Thursday which may aid in improving status of
fuels and mitigating any widespread fire weather concerns.
There is some indication that on D6/Friday, strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. This may lead to some overlap of windy/dry conditions
across portions of western and north-central Texas. Confidence is
low in including any areas at this time with potential precipitation
unknown on D5/Thursday.
..Thornton.. 01/04/2026
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