|
U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 021612
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
Parts of eastern CO and western KS experienced good overnight RH
recoveries, though will quickly dry once again out this afternoon
under peak heating and clear skies. In east-central NM, sustained
westerly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts 30+) are already being measured
this morning. As the surface low develops east of the Rockies,
combined surface lee troughing and gradient flow will support
southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and coincident RH drops
below 20 percent across much of the Elevated risk area. A confined
region of Critical fire weather is expected in southeastern CO into
the OK/TX Panhandles where RH will drop below 15 percent as
sustained westerly veering to southerly winds increase to 20-30 mph
(gusts 35+) atop very dry fuels. See the previous discussion for
more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough will impinge on the central Rockies
today, resulting in the development of a surface low across the
central Great Plains. Modest westerly, mid-level flow will support a
downslope regime across the southern/central Rockies. Coupled with
gradient flow, this will promote dry and windy conditions supportive
of wildfire spread across portions of the southern/central High
Plains.
...Central/southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, the combination of downslope and gradient
flow is expected to support 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds from northeastern New Mexico into the western
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, southeastern Colorado, and far
southwestern Kansas. With dry fuels across the region and RH values
forecast to fall to 10-15%, this is expected to support at least a
few hours of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Brief
periods of critical conditions are also possible farther
south/southwest in the lee of both the Guadalupe Mountains and the
Black Range in New Mexico; however, lower confidence in an extended
duration of overlap between wind/RH criteria as well as increasing
high cloud cover throughout the day precludes the addition of
Critical highlights at this time.
Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlapping minimum RH
values of 10-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across
adjacent areas of the southern/central High Plains. Portions of the
northern and eastern edges of the Elevated highlights were trimmed
from areas that saw more appreciable rainfall accumulations today.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 020729
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level, shortwave trough will eject northeastward across
the central/northern Great Plains on D2/Friday, while an attendant
surface low develops northeastward into the Midwest. A cold front
associated with this surface low will progress southward across the
central and southern High Plains.
...Central/eastern New Mexico...
High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with the
previously mentioned surface low across the central Great Plains
will yield a tightened pressure gradient across much of the southern
Rockies, favoring a dry, downslope flow regime. This downslope flow
is forecast to be strongest in the lee of the Sandia Manzano
Mountains and is expected to support critical fire weather
conditions across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with
sustained westerly surface winds of 20-25 mph forecast to overlap
very low RH of around 10-15% and receptive fuels. Westerly winds of
15-20 mph and very low RH of 10-20% will promote elevated fire
weather concerns across adjacent areas of the southern High Plains.
The aforementioned cold front will pass through the region late in
the afternoon, bringing an abrupt shift to northerly winds with only
a marginal increase in RH expected. These weather conditions should
be monitored closely with any new ignitions or ongoing wildfires as
it could be problematic for fire spread.
...Central High Plains...
Sustained northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph amid very low RH
of 10-20% and receptive fuels are expected to support elevated to
locally critical fire weather concerns across portions of the
central High Plains Friday afternoon as downslope flow couples with
a dry, post-frontal air mass. Uncertainty regarding the duration of
overlap between sustained surface winds of 20+ mph and RH values
below 15% precludes the addition of Critical highlights at this
time, but this potential will continue to be monitored.
...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure across
the Intermountain West and low pressure in the vicinity of the Gulf
of California will favor sustained northerly/northeasterly winds of
20-30 mph amid very low RH of 10-15% (locally lower). While elevated
live fuel moisture is expected to preclude widespread fire weather
concerns, this wind/RH combination may support localized wildfire
spread potential.
..Chalmers.. 04/02/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 012117
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
A progressive large scale mid/upper trough will traverse the Great
Plains on D3/Friday and shift northeast, bringing cooler
temperatures, higher elevation snow, and much needed rain to parts
of northern Rockies and northern High Plains. This should reduce
broader fire weather concerns across portions of the High Plains
into the Midwest. However, fire weather concerns will remain for
areas that do not see appreciable rainfall on Day 2/Thursday and Day
3/Friday in the central and southern High Plains. An upper ridge
builds back across the western U.S. thereafter, bringing warm and
dry weather through the remainder of the forecast period.
...Day 3/Friday - Southern High Plains and West Texas...
A cold front associated with an emerging surface low will progress
southward across the central and southern High Plains on Day
3/Friday. Tightening surface pressure gradients in the lee of the
Sangre de Critso and Sandia Manzano Mountains of NM will promote
strong downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph with coincident RH of
10-15 percent ahead of the dry cold front. The aforementioned front
will pass through the TX Panhandle and eastern NM in the late
afternoon, bringing sustained northerly winds of 20+ mph, while only
increasing RH to 20-30 percent. These weather conditions should be
monitored closely with any new ignitions or ongoing wildfires, as it
could be problematic for fire spread. However, increasing high cloud
cover throughout the day may alleviate some fire concerns.
Additionally, dry and breezy conditions return to far southern NV
and the Low/High Desert of CA on Day 3/Friday. Sustained northerly
winds of 20-30 mph and 10-15 percent RH could promote localized
wildfire spread potential.
Upper ridging builds back in this weekend across the western U.S.,
persisting through early next week. Given the overall pattern,
locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise as dry conditions
prevail across parts of the central and southern High Plains.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/01/2026
|
