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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 021628
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Increasing westerly
flow aloft south of an advancing mid-level trough along with a
deepening lee surface trough along the central/southern High Plains
will support a favorable environment for dry, downslope flow across
east-central NM and the TX Panhandle through the afternoon.
West-southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity as
low as 15% are expected. However, the overall fuelscape remains
unreceptive to significant wildfire spread although pockets of drier
fuels/cured grasses could align with the dry and breezy conditions
to support locally elevated fire weather concerns.
..Williams.. 12/02/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025/
...Synopsis...
Within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough over
the West, a belt of moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread
the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today. In response, a
lee cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of northeastern NM. These
factors will contribute to dry/breezy downslope flow from eastern NM
into the TX Panhandle and South Plains during the afternoon. While a
corridor of 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds are
expected amid 15-20 percent RH, unreceptive fuels should limit most
fire-weather concerns. East of the lee cyclone, dry/breezy return
flow will develop across northwest TX into western OK. Similarly,
marginal fuels should limit the wildfire risk.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 021936
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook as minimal fire weather
concerns exist across the contiguous U.S. An offshore pressure
gradient across southern CA amplified by a surface high moving into
the Interior West should increase Wednesday night into Day
3/Thursday morning as a cold front presses through the Desert
Southwest. This will result in east-northeast winds of 15-25 mph in
wind-prone areas and terrain gaps coupled with relative humidity
falling to 15-20% in some areas. However, fuels conducive to
significant wildfire spread remain subdued, mitigating impact from
the expected heightened fire weather conditions.
..Williams.. 12/02/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025/
...Synopsis...
On the backside of a midlevel trough moving across the Four Corners
region, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. This
will yield an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern
CA. While locally dry/breezy conditions are expected (especially
over the wind-prone mountains and valleys), marginal fuels and
limited RH reductions should keep any fire-weather risk localized.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 012115
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
A generally benign fire weather pattern is expected across eastern
CONUS through early next week as successive cold fronts and
attendant precipitation along with cool/cold conditions mitigate
significant fire weather potential. Limited atmospheric moisture and
northward displacement of passing mid/upper level short waves should
keep dry conditions in place across the Southwest and portions of
the Southern Plains through the weekend. Latest model guidance
suggests another offshore wind event across southern CA Day
3-4/Wednesday-Thursday as surface high pressure settles into the
Intermountain West. However, fuels are expected to remain
unreceptive/marginal through the event, limiting the impact from dry
offshore flow. Stronger lee cyclogenesis is possible on Day
6/Saturday across the central/southern High Plains as a mid-level
wave descends southeastward from the Northern Rockies. The
subsequent dry and breezy conditions from a tightening surface
pressure gradient could bring a fire weather threat to portions of
eastern NM and West TX, but uncertainty in timing/position of
surface low and overlap with sufficiently dry fuels precludes
introduction of critical probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 12/01/2025
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