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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271646

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1146 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

   Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

   The forecast remains on track for elevated fire weather conditions
   across portions of the northwestern CONUS. Poor to marginal
   overnight humidity recoveries and daytime heating will contribute to
   critical RH values of 10-15% this afternoon amid southwesterly winds
   of 10-15 mph (gusts up to 25 mph). Meteorological conditions will
   overlap a very dry, drought-stressed fuelscape (80-95th percentile
   ERCs) with multiple ongoing large wildfires. Any lightning holdovers
   from thunderstorms last week/weekend may also emerge as a result of
   hot, dry, and breezy conditions.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/27/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge will remain in place over the western CONUS today,
   with modest mid-level flow poised to pivot around the ridge during
   the afternoon hours, when a deep and dry boundary layer will
   encourage downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft.
   The most likely location for boundary-layer mixing and associated
   stronger surface winds will be across the northern Sierra into the
   northern Rockies, where southwesterly surface winds may occasionally
   exceed 15 mph amid 20 percent RH and dry fuels. As such, Elevated
   highlights have been maintained.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 271907

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   On Day 2/Tuesday, occasionally breezy southwesterly winds of 10-15
   mph amid RH values of 15-25% may generate locally elevated fire
   weather concerns across the Columbia Basin and portions of the
   northern Rockies where fuels remain dry. Please see the previous
   discussion for additional information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/27/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Another day of mid-level ridging will characterize the upper-air
   pattern for the western CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). As in the past
   couple of days, upper flow pivoting around the ridge should continue
   to weaken in intensity, supporting a weaker surface wind field in
   turn. Widespread dry conditions are expected across western portions
   of the Great Basin toward the Pacific Northwest and northern
   Rockies. Nonetheless, the lack of a stronger surface wind field
   precludes fire weather highlights at this time.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272138

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0438 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

   Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level troughing is forecast across portions of the Pacific
   Northwest through much of the workweek, with the main upper-level
   low remaining offshore. Meanwhile, periodic mid-level shortwaves
   will rotate through the base of the trough and over the area within
   the southwest flow aloft. The strongest and most well-defined
   shortwave is forecast Day 4/Thursday, potentially allowing a
   thunderstorm threat to emerge. Thereafter, longer-range ensemble
   guidance continues to suggest that the aforementioned upper-level
   low may move onshore this weekend, yielding dry and breezy
   conditions across the Northwest and Northern Rockies; though timing
   details remain uncertain.

   ...Northwestern US...
   Weaker flow aloft will limit a broader fire weather threat across
   the Pacific Northwest through much of the week. Though, locally
   elevated fire weather conditions appear likely most days due to
   lingering dry and breezy conditions amid receptive fuels. Dry
   thunderstorm chances may return on Day 4/Thursday as the
   aforementioned shortwave trough impinges upon the region amid ample
   instability, a dry boundary layer, and sufficient mid-level
   moisture, supporting the introduction of 10% probabilities. A
   persisting dry airmass and warm daytime temperatures are expected to
   increase fuel receptivity, enhancing concerns for new lightning
   ignitions. Longer range guidance continues to suggest dry and breezy
   conditions should return to the Northwest sometime this weekend as
   the offshore trough moves inland. As such, 40% Critical
   probabilities have been introduced on Days 6-7/Saturday-Sunday where
   ensemble RH/wind joint probabilities highlight increased
   probabilities to overlap exceptionally dry fuels. The spatial extent
   of drawn probabilities may be adjusted in future outlook cycles as
   predictability increases.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of the
   southern High Plains through much of the workweek; however, recent
   fuel guidance suggests the fuelscape remains mostly mixed and winds
   are forecast to generally remain at or below elevated thresholds.
   Nevertheless, fuels are expected to continue drying due to the
   multiple days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions, which may
   necessitate fire weather highlights in later forecasts.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/27/2026
      




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