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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 171514
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...
Minor expansions were made to the Elevated/Critical areas in New
Mexico and the southern High Plains based on the latest observations
and high-resolution forecast guidance. Elevated to locally critical
conditions are already occurring in portions of west Texas and
central/eastern New Mexico, with several hours of elevated/critical
conditions expected in the outlook areas. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more
details.
..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
Plains. During the afternoon, surface pressure gradients will
tighten across much of the High Plains with a cold front progressing
southwestward into southern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This
will promote Critical fire weather conditions throughout eastern New
Mexico, Texas Panhandle, and West Texas. A second shortwave impulse
will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal temperatures and
some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern Plains...
As the upper trough moves east of the Rockies, increasing mid level
flow will overspread much of the southern High Plains. At the
surface, a strengthening low will quickly traverse the upper
Midwest, dragging a cold front southward. Poor expected overnight
humidity recoveries will encourage RH in the single digits by peak
afternoon heating combined with strong southwest winds of 20-25 mph
(gusts up 40 mph). These conditions amid receptive fuels will
support Critical fire weather conditions for much of the region on
Friday. As the cold front passes through Friday evening, an abrupt
northerly wind shift with strong gusts of up to 40 mph continuing
for a few hours could impact any ongoing wildfires. However, higher
relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front are
expected to improve the fire weather environment into the overnight
hours.
Farther north, gusty post-frontal northerly winds are expected over
parts of the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly throughout
the day as temperatures cool. Brief locally elevated fire weather
conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry.
...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, westerly flow aloft
will linger over the Appalachians with weak lee surface troughing.
Westerly winds of 10 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) and decreasing RH to
less than 30 percent are expected by peak heating. These conditions
atop a drought ridden landscape and exceptionally dry fuels will
support an Elevated fire weather threat this afternoon.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 171900
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...
...Southern/Central Plains
A Critical area was added for portions of western/central Nebraska
as west-northwest sustained winds of 20-25 mph amid minimum RH of
15-20% are expected. The Critical area may need to be expanded in
Nebraska if ensemble high-resolution forecast guidance continues to
trend towards higher probabilities for critical RH. The Elevated
area was expanded across Nebraska, central Kansas, southern South
Dakota, eastern Colorado, western Oklahoma, and west Texas amid dry
and breezy post-frontal conditions, with recent/forecast
precipitation helping to delineate the expansion of the Elevated
area.
...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...
The Elevated area in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic was also
expanded slightly, with pre-frontal elevated winds/RH appearing more
likely along/east of the Appalachians in portions of Virginia, West
Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms are expected
along/ahead of the approaching cold front in the southern/central
Appalachians tomorrow late afternoon into tomorrow night. While not
a conducive or typical dry thunderstorm environment, the expected
lightning with 50%+ probability of receiving less than 0.25" of
rainfall on eastern slopes of the Appalachians onto the Piedmont
Plateau could result in ignitions. Given the following dry and
breezy post-frontal conditions on Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, there
is concern for increased spread potential of any existing and new
ignitions.
..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will move towards the upper Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley as temporary upper ridging builds over the West.
Enhanced southwest winds ahead of an eastward progressing cold front
will pose an Elevated fire weather threat across parts of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In the wake of the aforementioned upper
trough, a post-frontal dry airmass and northerly flow will promote
Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central
Plains.
...Central Plains...
Within a post-frontal environment, northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph
and RH of 15-25 percent over dry fuels will pose an Elevated fire
weather threat for portions of central NE, eastern CO, and western
KS on Saturday. However, the areal extent of fire weather highlights
may change as forecast precipitation (and perhaps some snowfall) on
Day 1/Friday may provide some relief to fuel conditions.
...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Increasing southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled
with the lack of Gulf moisture return and resultant low RH are
expected to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across much of
the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At peak heating, widespread RH
of less than 30 percent will combine with southwesterly winds of
10-15 mph atop receptive fuels. A prolonged period of above normal
temperatures and lack of appreciable rainfall continues to
exacerbate fuel conditions across this region.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 172146
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
A large, deep upper level trough will move over the Great Lakes and
the eastern US Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, with another surface
cold front pushing through the eastern US. An upper-level trough
will move into the West early to mid-next week, with upper-level
troughing likely lingering over the West through next week. Much of
the southern half of the West, southern/central High Plains, and the
Southeast will remain dry for the outlook period.
...Plains and Southwest...
Lee troughing on the southern/central High Plains amid dry return
flow will result in another round of elevated to critical fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Sunday. South-southwest sustained winds
of 15-25 mph amid minimum RH of 8-20% is expected with the highest
probabilities of critical conditions in the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles, southwest Kansas, into far southeast Colorado and
northeast New Mexico.
Dry/breezy conditions will likely develop again on Day 4/Monday in
the vicinity of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas amid
continued surface troughing and dry return flow. Another area of
concern will be in eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska and South
Dakota near surface troughing and a cold front. West-northwest winds
of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25% is forecast across this area,
with most of the concern ahead of the cold front.
As the upper-level trough moves into and across the Intermountain
West, increasing flow aloft and lee troughing on the High Plains
will lead to elevated/critical fire weather conditions. A broad 40%
area was introduced on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the
Southwest and much of the southern/central High Plains based on
current ensemble forecast guidance. Depending on the timing of the
upper-level troughing, probabilities may be necessary on Day
5/Tuesday if the upper-level trough trends quicker, or probabilities
may be shifted/increased onto Day 7/Thursday if trends with trough
are slower. Regardless, critical fire weather conditions are likely
to return to portions of the Southwest and much of the
southern/central High Plains mid-next week.
...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop east of the
Appalachians on the Piedmont Plateau extending southwest into the
Florida Panhandle on Day 3/Sunday. The 40% area was expanded, but
farther expansion may be necessary depending on the anticipated
rainfall on Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday. North-northwest
sustained winds of 10-15 mph and minimum RH of 10-30% is forecast
within and near the 40% area amid a fuelscape characterized by ERCs
mostly in the 90-99th percentiles.
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will likely persist across
portions of the Piedmont and Deep South on Day 4/Monday. By Day
5/Tuesday, western portions of the Florida Peninsula and north
Florida have the best chances elevated to locally critical
conditions as 10-20 mph easterly winds overlap RH of 25-40%. Minimum
RH of 20-35% will continue across portions of the Southeast further
exacerbating already dry, receptive fuels for which a Fuels and Fire
Behavior Advisory has been issued.
..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026
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