ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 290759

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the
   eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded
   impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued
   southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a
   post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained
   northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of
   the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated
   highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface
   flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained
   winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of
   the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights.

   ..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282134

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   The large-scale mid-level pattern for this forecast period will be
   characterized by northwest flow across much of the eastern United
   States, resulting from a western ridge and eastern trough. Global
   guidance continues to suggest a short-wave trough will undercut the
   ridge mid-to-late week, although timing of this trough varies from
   run-to-run.

   ... Southern Plains ...

   A low-end fire threat may develop on Tuesday (D3) associated with a
   modest dry-return flow pattern. Afternoon minimum relative humidity
   will fall below critical criteria (15-20%) across the region, with
   temperatures beginning to warm in response to the surface ridge
   moving east of the area. The limiting factor for a fire environment
   supportive of critical fire weather conditions appears to be the
   surface winds. As the center of the surface ridge moves slowly east,
   winds will turn southwesterly and weaken on Tuesday as compared to
   previous days. This forecast maintains the inherited 40% area given
   model guidance tendency to under-forecast winds. Further refinements
   will be needed in subsequent forecasts.

   Later in the week may see an uptick in large-scale fire weather
   concerns as westerly surface winds increase in response to the
   approaching aforementioned short-wave trough undercutting the
   western ridge. There will likely be a period of at least elevated
   fire weather concerns associated with this feature before surface
   winds across portions of the area back to northerly in response to a
   developing surface low across the ArkLaTex region. The timing and
   details of this scenario are such that forecast probabilities on any
   day are too low to warrant highlights.

   ... Southeast US ...

   A very dry continental polar airmass will be entrenched across the
   region in the wake of the strong cold frontal passage on Monday.
   Most areas across the region will achieve minimum relative humidity
   below critical thresholds (25-30%) for multiple consecutive days. On
   Tuesday (D3), winds will remain somewhat gusty before the
   surface-pressure gradient further relaxes on Wednesday. A mitigating
   factor on Tuesday for fire occurrence will be the cold temperatures,
   with high temperatures across the Appalachians struggling to get out
   of the 30s.

   On Wednesday (D4), the continental polar airmass will moderate
   slightly, allowing for warmer afternoon temperatures. However,
   northerly winds will hold any moisture return at bay, resulting in
   even lower relative humidity than the previous day. The mitigating
   factor on Wednesday will be that surface winds should decrease as
   compared to Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient continues to
   relax.

   This forecast will introduce an expansive 40% area on both Tuesday
   and Wednesday. Further refinements will be necessary in subsequent
   forecasts.

   The dry airmass will persist beyond Wednesday for at least some
   areas of the Southeast. However, at this time range some uncertainty
   exists in the magnitude and timing of potential moisture return
   associated with a surface low tied to the aforementioned short-wave
   trough.

   ..Marsh.. 12/28/2025