U.S. Alerts
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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 301621

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

   Valid 301700Z - 311200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   The forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more
   information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/30/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will move slowly north out of the central Rockies
   into the northern Rockies. The resulting Pacific Northwest trough
   and northern Gulf subtropical ridge will place much of Southwest
   into the central US beneath broadly southwest flow. Morning water
   vapor imagery suggests a developing mid-level wave/vorticity maximum
   across northern Mexico, and this feature will quickly move northwest
   within the mid-level flow.

   Large scale fire weather concerns will be low on Day 1/Saturday as 
   regions with receptive fuels (Southwest/Great Basin) will largely be
   removed from regions with stronger flow, and regions where flow
   would support a fire weather concern, recent rainfall should
   mitigate that threat.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 301817

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0117 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   The forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for more
   information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/30/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   The overall mid-to-upper-level pattern will once again be dominated
   by a Pacific Northwest trough and a northern Gulf subtropical ridge.
   Thus, despite broadly southwest mid-level flow across the Southwest
   into the central US, the lack of overlap between areas of receptive
   fuels and stronger flow will limit fire weather concerns except on a
   localized basis.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 302154

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0454 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

   Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A semi-stagnant synoptic pattern is expected to continue through the
   extended forecast period. An upper low will hover over the Northwest
   through Day 4/Tuesday meanwhile a blocking ridge remains over the
   Central U.S. and Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure and associated
   dry conditions amid light winds will dominate over the Great Lakes
   through at least Day 5/Wednesday, before a possible pattern change
   on Day 6/Thursday. A North Atlantic trough will persist along the
   Eastern Seaboard before developing into an upper low as it moves
   offshore on Day 5/Wednesday. Much of the Plains and Southeast will
   continue to see opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with
   deeper boundary layer moisture in place, keeping broader fire
   weather concerns low.

   The Northwest upper low will lift into southwestern Canada mid-week,
   promoting a warming and drying trend across much of the
   Intermountain West and Southwest through the period. Diffuse surface
   pressure gradients will keep winds on the light side with above
   normal temperatures and dry conditions supporting drying and curing
   of fuels. An intrusion of deeper atmospheric moisture into the
   Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday will promote increasing chances for
   thunderstorms and appreciable precipitation in eastern NM. However,
   extended guidance depicts moisture will be less significant west of
   the Divide, with forecast soundings portraying a prominent dry
   sub-cloud layer and PWATs of 0.5-0.8", allowing some possibility of
   isolated dry thunderstorms to evolve. 10% probabilities for Dry
   Thunderstorms have been introduced across far eastern AZ into
   western NM to account for this threat. 

   As the blocking pattern continues through the middle of next week,
   surface high pressure should reinforce warm and dry conditions
   across the Great Lakes region. The upper ridge will begin to flatten
   on Day 5/Wednesday as an upper low traverses southern Canada,
   pushing surface high pressure farther southeast. Very warm daytime
   temperatures and RH declining to near critical values on Day
   6/Thursday could encourage fire weather concerns to emerge where
   favorable fuels exist. However, misaligned breezy winds/critical RH
   preclude the introduction of probabilities at this time, though
   trends will be monitored in future outlook cycles.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/30/2026
      




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