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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 041528
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the previous
discussion for details.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the
central Great Plains today as a more amplified upper-level trough
digs southeastward into the West. At the surface, a nearly
stationary boundary is forecast to extend from west Texas into the
Midwest and then eastward across the Mid-Atlantic. Cooler
temperatures, lighter winds, and modestly increased RH within the
post-frontal air mass will temper fire weather concerns across much
of the central and southern High Plains. A second surface cyclone
shifting southeastward from Alberta into Montana may bring a brief
period of localized downslope winds to portions of the northern High
Plains. Sustained surface winds are forecast to remain light across
any areas that do see RH values of 20% or less, however. Given the
expected poor overlap of low RH and stronger sustained wind,
widespread fire weather concerns are unlikely at this time.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 041951
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...
The latest forecast guidance has slightly slowed the area of maximum
winds associated with the upper level trough transiting the
central/southern Rockies on Day 2/Thursday. Additionally, in part
due to the timing and curvature of the jet maximum, there is some
uncertainty as to how far east the dryline will progress later in
the day. Meanwhile, the aforementioned elevated to critical
conditions will be ongoing for several hours across a good portion
of central to northeastern New Mexico from noon to sunset local
time. A subtle westward movement was necessitated over the southern
extent of Critical area due to this trend in the latest guidance.
Additionally, the Elevated was expanded over portions of the Trans
Pecos to account for forecast guidance trending toward slightly
lower relative humidity in that area. With additional information on
fuels conditions, also added in portions of eastern central Colorado
and extreme southeastern Arizona.
Consideration was given to a potential dry thunderstorm threat
primarily in the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Limiting factors precluding any areas include the uncertainty of the
dryline placement and progression, the expected cloud cover over the
region, and the propensity for increasing coverage of strong storms.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
A deepening upper-level trough will track southeastward over the
Intermountain West and Four Corners D2/Thursday, with an associated
lee surface cyclone developing on the central High Plains through
the day. The surface cyclone will shift southeastward through the
period, with a sharpening, trailing dryline across the
southern/central High Plains. Strong sustained southwesterly surface
winds and very low RH behind this dryline will support widespread
elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the
southern/central High Plains.
...Portions of eastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado...
Dry, southwesterly downslope flow will increase on D2/Thursday
behind a sharpening dryline across the central/southern High Plains.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern New
Mexico into southeastern Colorado where the best overlap of stronger
sustained surface winds (20-25 mph), low relative humidities
(5-15%), and receptive fuels is expected. Stronger 700 mb winds
coupled with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will also support
sporadic wind gusts of 35-45 mph along this corridor. Elsewhere
across the central/southern High Plains, sustained southwesterly
surface winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-20% will support
elevated fire weather concerns across much of New Mexico, southeast
Colorado, far west Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern
Kansas. The eastern extent of elevated/critical fire weather
conditions will depend on the dryline location, while the western
extent is limited by less receptive fuels.
The dryline will be a focus for D2/Thursday late afternoon and
evening thunderstorm development, with the potential for a narrow
corridor of dry thunderstorms from the Caprock into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. Given lingering
uncertainty regarding dryline placement/movement and the potential
for precipitation from developing convection, isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights have been withheld at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 032141
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
An upper-level trough will track southeast and deepen over the
Intermountain West Day 3/Thursday with an associated surface cyclone
developing on the central High Plains. The flow aloft is likely to
split with an upper-level trough tracking northeast across the
central Plains into the Great Lakes Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday
and another upper low likely retrograding southwest over Baja
California by Day 5/Saturday. Forecast uncertainty increases late in
the period regarding the large-scale pattern, especially the
evolution of the cutoff low over northwest Mexico/southwest US.
...Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday: southern/central High Plains...
Southwest flow will increase on Day 3/Thursday behind a sharpening
dryline on the southern/central High Plains. Southwest sustained
surface winds of 15-30 mph gusting 25-50 mph amid minimum RH of
5-20% are expected across much of New Mexico, southeast Colorado,
far west Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwest Kansas.
Probabilities of critical conditions are highest across eastern New
Mexico into southeast Colorado. The eastern extent of
elevated/critical fire weather conditions will depend on the dryline
location, while the western extent will be limited due to less
receptive fuels. Forecast precipitation on Day 1/Tuesday night is
expected to limit elevated/critical fire weather conditions
along/east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristos for Day
3/Thursday, but this will be monitored in subsequent outlooks. High
clouds are also likely to overspread portions of the 40/70% risk
areas, which may help mitigate fire weather conditions.
The dryline will be a focus for Day 3/Thursday late afternoon and
evening thunderstorm development, with the potential for a narrow
corridor of dry thunderstorms from the Caprock into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. However, the
potential for upscale convective growth, a high PWAT/dewpoint
airmass adjacent to the dryline, and dryline placement/movement are
all sources of forecast uncertainty regarding an isolated dry
thunderstorm risk area.
On Day 4/Friday, the dryline will mix farther east with an
approaching cold front pushing southeast across the central Plains.
Between the dryline and cold front, another round of elevated to
critical fire weather conditions are expected, but the probability
of critical conditions are closer to 50%, thus precluding a 70% area
at this time. The northern/eastern portions of the 40% area are the
most uncertain due the previous day/night's (i.e., Day 3/Thursday)
rainfall, how far east the dryline will move, and the progression of
the approaching cold front.
..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/03/2026
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