ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220553

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough will push eastward into the Intermountain West
   while increasing southwesterly flow associated with a potent
   mid-level jet moves over the central Rockies. A deepening surface
   low across eastern MT will promote dry and breezy conditions and
   increased fire weather threat over parts of the northern High Plains
   Day 2/Friday.

   ...Northern High Plains...
   A deepening surface low across eastern MT will evolve Friday as a
   50-60 knot mid-level jet ahead of a broad upper trough presses into
   the Central Rockies. Resultant deep layer south to southwest flow
   and downslope drying ahead of a cold front will bring elevated fire
   weather concerns to northeastern WY, far southeastern MT and
   adjacent bordering areas of ND and SD where drier fuels exist. HREF
   mean wind speeds of 20-30 mph from the south/southwest are likely to
   develop by early Friday afternoon while accompanied by localized
   minimum RH as low as 15% in some locations, although most areas
   within the Elevated highlights will be closer to 20-25%. Above
   normal temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s F ahead of an advancing
   cold front, lack of recent rainfall and strength of winds should
   contribute to the overall wildfire threat.

   ..Williams.. 10/22/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212133

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0433 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   While upper-level high pressure persists across the middle of the
   country, a significant trough will impact the western CONUS. This
   pattern will continue near-normal temperatures amid dry conditions
   over much of the Southeast US. Vegetation in this area will become
   increasingly vulnerable to burning, especially across the southern
   Appalachian Mountains and the lower Mississippi River Valley, where
   ERCs are forecast to reach the 90-95th percentiles. However,
   generally weak winds will limit the overall fire threat there.

   The upper-level trough currently located off the CA coast will
   slowly drift northeastward, placing its axis through the central
   Great Basin on Day 3/Friday and eventually the Great Plains by Day
   6/Monday. Expect resulting colder air and widespread precipitation
   across a large portion of the Intermountain region, portions of the
   Sierras, and the coastal CA mountains where fuels have been
   persistently dry. However, relatively dry portions of the northern
   High Plains will experience strong and gusty southwest winds
   (sustained near 20-30 mph) amid borderline afternoon RHs of 20-30%
   on Day 3/Friday. Even so, much warmer than normal temperatures ahead
   of a cold front passage, expected to occur after sunset across the
   region, will allow for elevated to near-critical fire weather
   conditions from portions of north-central WY through far western SD.
   Thus, an area of 40% probability of critical wind/RH was introduced
   over portions of this region for Day 3/Friday.

   Moving forward in time to next week, forecast uncertainty increases.
   However, recent guidance trends indicate that an upper-level ridge
   is likely to return to the Intermountain West by mid-to-late next
   week. Embedded shortwave troughs will continue to propagate through
   the flow, maintaining chances for precipitation across much of the
   northwestern quadrant of the CONUS.

   ..Stearns.. 10/21/2026