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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 121642
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
Satellite imagery shows an area of high level clouds blanketing much
of the northern and portions of the central High Plains. These high
level clouds are expected to continue streaming southeast over
northern and western portions of the Day 1/Thursday Fire Weather
Outlook area. Surface observations do show westerly winds beginning
to increase across these areas on the lee side of the Front Range,
with gusts exceeding 70 mph in some locations. Meanwhile, across
portions of Kansas and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, southwest
winds are already sustained at 15-25 mph this morning.
The latest forecast guidance suggests that a cold front will push
south and eastward through the northern Plains as the upper level
trough continues to progress eastward. While the exact position of
the frontal boundary is somewhat in flux, it is anticipated to move
through South Dakota during the early afternoon and approach Kansas
about midnight before surging across the southern Plains before
sunrise on Day 2/Friday as it loses strength. Once the front begins
to outpace the mid-level jet max over south-central South Dakota,
precipitation coverage will diminish and the dry airmass will move
into place. Very strong west/northwest winds sustained at 30-40 mph
and gusting to near 60 mph will follow the front across the northern
Plains. Thus, the Elevated area was extended slightly to the north
and east over portions of South Dakota, extreme western Iowa and
northern Kansas.
Critical conditions are likely to persist at least an hour or two
past sunset over portions of southern Nebraska/northern Kansas and
east-central New Mexico, bringing the duration to over 6 hours in
these localized areas. Extreme south Texas will remain just below
elevated thresholds of wind/RH as the timing of the strongest winds
and driest air will remain slightly out of sync in that area.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast today as a strong and
deepening surface cyclone associated with an intense 100+ kt
mid-level jet moves from the Northern Great Plains into the upper
Midwest, with an expansive wind field bringing dry and breezy
conditions to the Central and Southern Great Plains.
...Central and Southern Great Plains...
Strong west-northwesterly flow aloft and deep boundary layer mixing
will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the Central
and Southern Great Plains. With the winds having a strong downslope
component, widespread relative humidity of 10-15% will overlap with
winds of 25-35 MPH. The strongest winds will occur across northern
portions of the outlook area (closer to the surface low), primarily
across Wyoming and Nebraska reaching 35-40 MPH. However, these
stronger winds will occur with relatively higher relative humidity
(25-35%) and fuels that have received some recent wetting rainfall.
In the Southern Plains, winds will be generally weaker around 25 MPH
but with significantly drier surface conditions at around 10%
relative humidity and critically dry fuels.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 121850
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
The Elevated area focused on the lee side of the central and
southern Rocky Mountains remains on track for Day 2/Friday. Slight
expansions were made to account for the latest forecast guidance
showing winds reaching farther into western Kansas and over central
Colorado valleys. While conditions are not expected to reach
critical wind/RH criteria over a wide area, localized near-critical
conditions will be possible in portions of central New Mexico and
south-central Colorado where enhanced by gap and downslope winds.
Additionally, strong winds associated with the upper level jet are
expected over portions of the central Appalachian Mountains
throughout Virginia. However, recent rainfall over these areas will
keep fuel moistures sub-critical over the larger region.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy downslope winds are forecast to return to the Central
and Southern High Plains on Friday as deep boundary layer mixing
transports strong west-northwesterly flow from aloft to the surface.
Widespread winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15% is
expected to overlap with dry and receptive fuels. Locally critical
conditions may occur where favored by topography, but uncertainty in
the magnitude and duration of these stronger winds precludes
Critical highlights at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 122210
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
Progressive zonal flow continues across the central CONUS this
weekend transitioning into a more high-amplitude pattern early next
week and persisting through the forecast period. On Day 4/Sunday, an
upper level trough will dig aggressively southward into the central
and southern Rocky Mountains. This trough tracks through the
southern Appalachians by the end of Day 5/Monday before moving
toward the northeast CONUS on Day 6/Tuesday. Recent forecast
guidance continues to exhibit a notable southern trend and slower
eastward progression with this trough's evolution, introducing some
uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the peak wind as it shifts
eastward. Simultaneously, a robust upper-level ridge will amplify
over the western CONUS. By mid-to-late week, this ridge is forecast
to center over Arizona, with near-record heights over much of the
Southwest.
On Day 3/Saturday, the latest guidance continues to favor robust
surface winds over the southern and central Rockies, extending into
the adjacent High Plains. This area will continue to be watched
closely for a potential mountain wave that would enhance lee side
winds. The limiting factor keeping the outlook area from being drawn
farther west is the higher fuel moisture in place across extreme
western New Mexico into Arizona and Utah where wind and RHs are
expected to meet criteria. However, this event will serve to
pre-condition fuels in these areas as surface temperatures remain
nearly 20 degrees above normal throughout much of the central and
southern High Plains. Additionally, elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions are likely to persist overnight on portions
of the southern and central High Plains.
On Day 4/Sunday, as the trough axis shifts, vigorous northwest flow
on the backside of the system will maintain a corridor of strong
winds and persistent dry air across SE New Mexico and West Texas.
Both of the 40% and 70% probabilities areas were expanded to account
for the stronger upper-level jet max overhead and the tightening
surface pressure gradient ahead of the advancing cold front.
Conversely, the central and northern Plains will see a transition to
much more stable, post-frontal conditions with significantly cooler
temperatures, keeping these regions below critical thresholds.
On Day 5/Monday, expect breezy and dry conditions to persist across
eastern New Mexico under northerly flow. While the airmass remains
dry, surface temperatures will be cooler and surface wind speeds
appear more localized and marginal. While locally elevated
conditions will be possible, the lack of a widespread, tightened
surface pressure gradient suggests a lower probability of a critical
area at this lead time. An area of 40% probability was added over
extreme south Texas where northerly winds will combine with dry air
behind the front.
On Day 6/Tuesday, warmer temperatures return to the High Plains with
north to northwest upper level flow above much of the central CONUS.
With warmer surface temperatures and resultant higher surface
mixing, more widespread critical conditions will be possible over
portions of the southern Plains. Additionally, the post-frontal
environment over Georgia and Florida, where fuels are driest, will
provide opportunity for locally elevated conditions.
Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue to
cure fuels over the course of several consecutive days across the
southern half of the western CONUS through the outlook period.
Regardless of winds, temperatures and RHs would suggest extended
burn periods across these areas given receptive fuels.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/12/2026
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