ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080544

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING...

   ...Synopsis...
   On Day 2/Friday, an upper-level trough advancing southeastward into
   the Pacific Northwest, paired with a surface cold front, will create
   impactful fire weather conditions across portions of the northern
   and western CONUS. Prolonged dry, warm conditions beneath a
   persistent upper-level ridge have significantly cured fuels
   throughout the region. Energy Release Components are forecast to
   exceed the 80th percentile across the highlighted risk areas prior
   to the onset of stronger winds.

   ...Much of Wyoming, central Montana, southwestern South Dakota, and
   far northwest Nebraska...
   Enhanced west-southwesterly flow on Day 2/Friday will drive
   well-above-normal temperatures and promote seasonally deep
   boundary-layer mixing. A tightening surface pressure gradient, tied
   to a deepening lee low further north, and a southward progressing
   cold front, transiting through Montana around sunset, will bring
   drier air into the region with minimum RH values falling to 15 to 20
   percent. In tandem, sustained west-southwest surface winds ahead of
   the aforementioned front will increase to 15 to 20 mph across much
   of the northern High Plains and adjacent terrain, warranting an
   Elevated fire weather area.

   Furthermore, a Critical fire weather area has been introduced for
   portions of northeastern Wyoming. This corridor is expected to
   experience the most favorable overlap of strong southwest winds
   sustained at 20 to 25 mph, critically low afternoon RH values
   between 10 and 20 percent, and highly receptive fuels near the 90th
   ERC percentile.

   ...Southeast Oregon, Northeast California, and the far western Great
   Basin...
   West-southwesterly flow will similarly support anomalously warm
   temperatures and seasonally deep mixing across this region. As the
   surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold
   front, west-southwest surface winds will strengthen to 15 to 20 mph
   and turn toward the northwest as the front passes through
   southeastern Oregon in the late afternoon. Combined with afternoon
   relative humidity values dropping to near 15 to 20 percent over dry
   fuels, these conditions will support a targeted Elevated fire
   weather threat.

   ..Stearns.. 10/08/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 072158

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge over the western CONUS will break down as an
   upper-level trough dives southward through the weekend. This system
   will bring increased winds, but also usher in cooler temperatures
   and precipitation chances over the Intermountain West into early
   next week. On Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, gusty northerly winds behind
   the trough may overlap portions of northern CA where fuels have
   grown increasingly receptive.

   A tropical system is expected to impact the central Gulf Coast later
   this week/weekend, bringing precipitation chances to portions of the
   MS Valley and Mid-South this weekend where ERCs are approaching the
   80-90th percentile. Prior to the arrival of deeper Gulf moisture,
   dry and locally breezy conditions may overlap pockets of receptive
   fuels in the lower MS Valley on Day 3/Friday.

   ...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday...
   Ahead of the aforementioned trough approaching the Pacific
   Northwest, increasing southwesterly flow will support widespread
   strong surface winds (sustained near 20 mph) amid above-normal
   temperatures and afternoon RH near 10-20%. Additionally, a southward
   progressing dry cold front and accompanying wind shift will enhance
   fire weather concerns. After several days of dry conditions and
   above-normal temperatures through the workweek, fuels will be
   conditioned for ignition across much of the central latitudes of the
   western CONUS. Thus, 40% probabilities of Critical wind/RH
   conditions have been maintained over the northwestern Great Basin
   and much of MT/WY on Day 3/Friday.

   Guidance has continued to trend towards a lower likelihood of
   Critical fire weather conditions in southwestern WY on Day
   4/Saturday, resulting in a more confined area of 40% Critical
   probabilities. A cold front is expected to stall across the northern
   Great Basin, potentially allowing an area of dry and breezy
   conditions to evolve east of the northern Sierra into central NV.
   Additional probabilities may be needed as confidence increases in
   the overall pattern evolution.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/07/2026