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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080749

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE
   OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

   ...Synopsis...
   Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this
   afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is
   noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains
   with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as
   initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later
   today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced
   across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support
   strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential. 

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this
   afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM
   into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations
   are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is
   around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP
   solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry
   air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air
   mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that
   sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between
   30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week
   and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal),
   fuels will likely support fire spread. 

   ...Northern High Plains...
   A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing
   the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International
   border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure
   gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect
   will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and
   WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent
   observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the
   effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are
   expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire
   weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain
   receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern.

   ..Moore.. 03/08/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080806

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE
   TEXAS PANHANDLE...

   ...Synopsis...
   Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across
   parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong
   zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee
   troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High
   Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of
   diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with
   receptive fuels. 

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph
   westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where
   fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today
   through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single
   digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions
   appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt
   of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical
   conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of
   sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some
   deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show
   more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle
   and into far western OK.

   ...Central High Plains...
   A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the
   strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of
   cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday
   evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the
   western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be
   strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer
   heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds
   of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple
   days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region
   have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will
   likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire
   spread on Monday afternoon.

   ..Moore.. 03/08/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 072159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

   A mid-level cutoff low and upper trough will merge while ejecting
   into the Plains, tracking toward the East Coast through the middle
   of next week. Surface low development is expected across the central
   U.S. with the passage of the merging upper troughs early next week.
   This upper air pattern will support a few instances of regional dry
   downslope flow, especially across portions of the central and
   southern High Plains on Day 3 (Monday), where 40% Critical
   probabilities have been introduced. Dry downslope flow may continue
   across the southern High Plains on Day 4 (Tuesday), but possible
   preceding rainfall and marginal RH precludes Critical probabilities
   this outlook.

   By the middle of next week into next weekend, a zonal upper flow
   pattern will become established over the central U.S. with the
   departure of the upper trough. A pronounced mid-level impulse and
   accompanying rapidly eastward progressing surface low will support
   widespread dry and windy conditions across much of the High Plains
   on Day 6 (Thursday) given both strong gradient and downslope induced
   surface flow. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced across
   portions of the central and southern High Plains, where fuels are
   most receptive to wildfire spread and are forecast to receive
   minimal rainfall into next week.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026
      




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