ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 041903

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   The IsoDryT area was expanded across portions of northeast
   California, northwest Nevada, and into southwest Idaho. An
   upper-level shortwave trough, currently off the coast of southern
   California, is forecast to track northward across California and
   into the northwest Great Basin over the next 36 hours. This will
   bring moisture and forcing for ascent aloft, which will help develop
   isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms across portions of
   northern California, northwest Nevada, southern/eastern Oregon, and
   southwest Idaho. High-based shallow convective showers will track
   north across central/northern California and northwest Nevada during
   the day, with thunderstorm development likely starting in the
   afternoon and continuing through the evening and possibly overnight.
   ERCs are generally below average for this time of year, but field
   reports indicate increasing fuel receptiveness and initial attack.

   Isolated to perhaps scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are
   possible across portions of central/southern Colorado, most likely
   along and east of the southern Front Range and Sangre de Cristo
   Mountains. There is potential for thunderstorms to develop west of
   the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and along the eastern San Juans into
   the Sawatch Range. An IsoDryT area was not introduced given the
   potential limited corridor of drier storms and uncertainty regarding
   development and coverage. However, any storm that does develop west
   of the I-25 corridor, will be over near to record dry fuels.
   Additionally, deep pyroconvection over active large wildfires in the
   vicinity of this area is possible.

   ..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns will primarily be driven by dry thunderstorm
   potential on Sunday. While confidence in dry thunderstorms is
   greatest across portions of the Pacific Northwest, more isolated
   concerns may emerge across eastern Arizona into southwest New
   Mexico. 

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the Southwest/Four
   Corners region through the weekend. Guidance continues to show
   fairly good agreement in the northward propagation of a shortwave
   trough across northern CA into southern OR on the western periphery
   of the upper ridge through the day. A subtle influx of Pacific
   moisture ahead of the wave coupled with mid-level ascent/cooling
   will likely support isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into
   southeast OR and perhaps far northwest NV. Slow storm motions may
   allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but fairly dry low-level
   conditions and PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches will support
   dry lightning strikes, especially away from the heavier cores. Based
   on information from local offices, fuels across the region are
   generally receptive and should support lightning ignitions. Dry
   thunderstorm highlights were introduced to address this concern.

   ...Eastern Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
   A modest influx of mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California
   into eastern AZ/western NM is anticipated through the day Sunday.
   Some recent model solutions hint that this moisture will provide
   sufficient buoyancy for very weak convection by late afternoon when
   boundary-layer mixing will be maximized. Very weak forcing for
   ascent under the upper ridge suggests that any thunderstorm
   potential will most likely be tied to orographic ascent along the
   eastern Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region. While confidence in
   thunderstorm development is limited based on the synoptic regime and
   somewhat limited signal in CAM guidance, the potential for dry
   thunderstorms over a receptive fuel landscape is highlighted.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042152

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   Upper-level heights will build over the greater Four Corners region
   and the Plains with a Four Corners high developing. Mid-level
   moisture will stream northward into the Intermountain West amid
   south-southwest flow aloft, with deeper moisture moving into
   southern Arizona and portions of New Mexico. An upper-level trough
   is expected to move into the northwest US mid-week, but there is
   uncertainty regarding its strength and timing. Additionally, the
   Four Corners high is likely to flatten and drift westward mid to
   late next week.

   A broad area of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is likely on
   Day 3/Monday stretching from Oregon to the Four Corners. PWAT values
   0.5-0.9 with storm motions of 10-20 knots above a dry, deep
   sub-cloud layer are expected across this expansive area. Fuels are
   receptive, especially across the Four Corners states into
   central/eastern Nevada where ERC values are mostly at 90th-97th+
   percentiles. The presence and timing of waves rotating through the
   southwest flow aloft and evolution of the mid-level moisture may
   require adjusting this area in subsequent outlooks. 

   Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely again
   on Day 4/Tuesday with a focus on the greater Four Corners region.
   The upper high will likely suppress convection in parts of the 10%
   area, but storms are likely to be wetter farther to the east and
   south of the high. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may
   develop over receptive fuels across portions of central/northeast
   Nevada into northern Utah.

   Dry and breezy conditions are likely Day 4/Tuesday across the
   Cascade Gaps extending into northeast California and northwest
   Nevada ahead of the upper-level trough moving into the Northwest. A
   40% area was introduced to reflect these forecast conditions.
   Additional 40% areas were considered across portions of the Great
   Basin into the Four Corners Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday. However,
   the forecast uncertainty regarding the strength and track of the
   upper-level trough across the northwest US mid to late next week
   precluded introducing additional 40% areas.

   ..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026