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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 191600

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

   Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...Morning Update...
   No changes were made to the previous forecast. Across the southern
   Plains, morning surface observations depict widespread values of
   less than 20 percent RH owing to poor overnight humidity recoveries.
   Decreasing high clouds early this afternoon will promote deeper
   mixing with RH dropping to 5-15 percent and strong gusts of up to 35
   mph mixing down to the surface, maintaining Critical fire weather
   concerns. Across the Piedmont/Southeast, a shield of high clouds
   will gradually become more transparent with sporadic areas of
   partially sunny skies this afternoon. 12z soundings portray a very
   dry airmass up to 4-6 km, with 30-45 kt winds just above the
   surface. Areas that see breaks in the clouds will likely experience
   deeper mixing, contributing to stronger wind gusts upwards of 25-30
   mph in localized areas. Northwesterly winds are expected to decrease
   this evening, however, dry air will persist overnight across much of
   the Southeast. This may lead to poor overnight humidity recoveries,
   further exacerbating the fire environment into Day 2/Monday. See the
   previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
   afternoon across portions of the southern and central High Plains as
   well as across parts of the Southeast. Both fire weather regimes
   will be influenced by building surface high pressure in the wake of
   a cold front pushing into the northern Gulf and southeast Atlantic
   coast. 

   ...Central/Southern High Plains...
   Building surface high pressure is noted across the southern Plains
   with very dry conditions (dewpoints in the teens to single digits)
   observed across western TX into western KS. Southwest winds are
   forecast to strengthen to 15-25 mph on the western periphery of the
   surface high this afternoon as a dry return flow regime becomes
   established. Mostly sunny skies coupled with very low boundary-layer
   moisture will support deep mixing and RH minimums in the single
   digits to low teens. Critical fire weather conditions remain likely
   across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS where gusts up to 30
   mph appear likely. Given recent fire activity across northwest TX,
   the fuel environment will support the fire weather threat. 

   ...Southeast States...
   06 UTC surface observations depict a cold front pushing eastward
   across the Southeast. Although scattered showers accompany this
   front, latest forecast depicts low probability for wetting rainfall
   across northern FL into central GA and SC, which will likely be
   insufficient to mitigate ERC values well above the 95th percentile.
   In the wake of the cold front, west/northwest winds will prevail
   across much of the region. A combination of dry air advection and
   downslope flow off the southern Appalachians will contribute to
   widespread 15-25% RH minimums. Elevated to locally critical fire
   weather conditions should become fairly widespread as winds increase
   into the 15-20 mph with localized gusts upwards of 25-30 mph.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 191855

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...Afternoon Update...
   Only minor changes were made to expand and confine the Elevated fire
   weather highlights based on recent high resolution guidance. Across
   the Piedmont, partly cloudy skies may increase RH values and inhibit
   deeper mixing across some parts of the region on Monday afternoon.
   However, poor overnight humidity recoveries and westerly winds of
   10-15 mph in terrain influenced areas will continue to support an
   Elevated fire weather threat. In the Southeast, northeasterly winds
   of up to 15 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) are expected where
   exceptionally dry fuels exist. Despite winds decreasing slightly
   throughout the day, areas where very low RH of 15-20 percent and
   gustier winds overlap may promote locally critical fire weather
   conditions. Farther west, portions of eastern WY may experience
   localized critical fire weather conditions where sporadic gusts of
   up to 35 mph are possible in the lee of the Laramie Mountains.
   However, lack of mid-level support and the narrow duration of strong
   winds overlapping low RH precludes the introduction of critical
   highlights at this time.

   Increasing mid-level moisture with afternoon heating and resultant
   instability may support isolated thunderstorms across south-central
   NM into eastern AZ. PWATs of 0.5-0.75" with a prominent dry
   sub-cloud layer should limit precipitation, allowing for the threat
   of dry thunderstorms to evolve. While widespread ERCs are below the
   90th percentile in this region, recent fire activity depicts
   receptivity where pockets of drier fuels exist.

   See the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts
   of the High Plains and the Southeast on Monday. Upper-level ridging
   will gradually shift east from the Rockies into the Plains through
   the day. While surface high pressure shifts east over the Southeast
   states, a lee trough will deepen along the northern High Plains,
   resulting in areas of breezy conditions over dry fuels. 

   ...High Plains...
   A deepening lee trough along the northern High Plains will support
   strengthening west/southwest winds to the west of the trough axis
   across eastern WY into western NE. Further south, a tightening
   pressure gradient in proximity to a lingering surface high over
   eastern TX will promote strengthening winds across the OK/TX
   Panhandle region. Within both regimes, ensemble guidance suggests
   sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely. RH minimums in the
   teens are likely across WY into NE where downslope wind will depress
   moisture content within an antecedent dry air mass. Further south,
   the northern fringe of returning moisture will begin nosing into
   western TX. This may limit RH reductions to some degree, but RH
   minimums will likely fall into at least the low 20s given model
   guidance tendency to display a moist bias at the surface within the
   early stages of moisture return.

   ...Southeast...
   A dry air mass will reside across much of the Southeast where fuels
   will likely remain dry owing to limited rainfall forecast over the
   next 24-48 hours for much of the region. In general, gradient winds
   will weaken through the day as surface high pressure builds across
   the region. However, areas of breezy conditions will likely persist
   in the lee of the southern Appalachians and along the northeastern
   Gulf coast. Sustained winds near 15 mph within a dry air mass (RH
   minimums in the teens to twenties) will likely support another day
   of elevated fire weather conditions.

   ...New Mexico to eastern Arizona...
   Low to mid-level moisture return is anticipated across southern TX
   and into central NM through Monday afternoon. Although forcing for
   ascent will be modest under an upper-level ridge, a combination of
   localized orographic ascent and deeply mixed boundary-layers with
   minimal inhibition will support isolated thunderstorm development.
   Storm motions around 10 knots will likely support pockets of wetting
   precipitation, but PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.7 inches will likely
   support dry lightning strikes outside of the heavier precipitation
   cores. With regional ERCs near the 75th to 80th percentile,
   lightning ignitions appear possible.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192144

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0444 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A large scale upper trough will move onshore the West Coast as
   ridging slides over the eastern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday.
   Precipitation will be possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and
   northern Appalachians with an associated shortwave trough on Day
   4/Wednesday. However, much of the Piedmont into the Southeast will
   remain fairly dry through the week as surface high pressure builds
   across the region through Day 6/Friday. As the aforementioned trough
   and associated mid-level flow progress eastward into the northern
   Plains mid-week, fire weather concerns are expected to reemerge
   across portions of the Southwest and High Plains. Through the end of
   the forecast period, persistent western troughing will likely
   maintain continued fire weather concerns where dry fuels exist.

   ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday...
   ...Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast...
   A fire weather threat will continue for portions of Florida on Day
   3/Tuesday as surface high pressure settles into the Deep South.
   Breezy easterly winds of up to 10 mph (gusts up to 15 mph) and RH
   values between 15-30 percent amid 90-99th percentile ERCs support
   40% Critical probabilities. On Day 4/Wednesday, a shortwave impulse
   will bring precipitation chances across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
   along a weak cold front. Ahead of the front, strong mid-level flow
   aloft will support dry and breezy downslope conditions where
   97th-99th percentile ERCs have been observed across the Carolinas.
   40% Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for this
   threat. 

   ...Central and Southern Plains...
   A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the
   approaching upper-level trough and associated southwest flow aloft
   will bring a more expansive fire weather threat to much of the High
   Plains and portions of the Southwest mid-week where fuels remain
   receptive. 70% critical probabilities have been maintained for Day
   4/Wednesday where a mid-level jet aligns with tightening surface
   pressure gradients associated with the deepening lee trough.
   Downslope enhanced drying and stronger west/southwest winds will
   continue across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Day
   5/Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40%
   critical probabilities were maintained for the Southwest and
   Southern Plains.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026
      




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