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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 090528
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains
today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the
surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan
toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward
through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and
breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across
portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While
localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across
this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large
wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights.
..Jirak.. 12/09/2025
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 090530
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern
CONUS with strong northwesterly flow upstream. At the surface, high
pressure will build in over the central CONUS in the wake of a
cold-frontal passage. Despite a shift to northerly surface winds
over southern Plains, temperatures are still expected to warm into
the upper 50s F. Given the strong northerly to northeasterly winds
just above the surface, vertical mixing could lead to gusty winds
around midday as RH values fall below 25% across portions of
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Even with dry and breezy conditions,
fuels across the region are generally not receptive for large
wildfires, limiting fire-weather concerns.
..Jirak.. 12/09/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082123
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper and mid-level flow pattern will be characterized by persistent
troughing across the eastern U.S. with ridging over the West. An
embedded mid-level short wave within the broad northwesterly flow
regime along with a strong surface low moving through the Great
Lakes region, will usher in a cold, continental air mass into much
of the eastern U.S. behind a robust cold front Days
3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. This should reduce the overall fire weather
threat across east CONUS.
The enhanced northwesterly mid-level jet over the central U.S. along
with surface troughing in the High Plains will promote stronger
downslope winds in the lee of the Central Rockies through Day
5/Friday. Limited RH reductions coupled with an unsupportive
fuelscape will likely mitigate a broader fire weather threat. Thus,
introduction of critical probabilities were not warranted.
Forecast confidence remains high across the Southwest as dry
conditions with above normal temperatures under an expanding ridge
aloft persists across the West. However, generally weak surface
pressure gradients and marginal fuels within the region will
mitigate overall fire weather concerns west of the Continental
Divide through early next week. The dry conditions will continue to
exert influence on fuels across the Southern Plains which could
contribute to increasing wildfire potential into eastern NM/West TX
through this week. Some forecast uncertainty exists in strength of
lee troughing and thus wind magnitude across the Southern Plains on
Day 4/Thursday and Day 6/Saturday, precluding introduction of
critical probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 12/08/2025
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