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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 050551
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Similar to Friday, upper-level troughing will persist across the
Pacific Northwest and Northeast, with upper level ridging also
remaining centered over the southern Great Plains. Modestly strong
southwestern flow will continue across much of the Great Basin,
northern Rockies, and northern High Plains. This troughing pattern
and attendant precipitation, cloud cover, and cooler temperatures
will continue to largely limit fire weather concerns across the
western U.S. today. Elsewhere, a surface frontal system will
continue to bring chances for rain to portions of the Midwest/East
Coast.
...Central/Northern Wyoming...
While less widespread compared to Friday, sustained southwesterly
winds of 10-20 mph and RH values of 15-20% (locally down to 10%) may
overlap areas of receptive fuels across portions of central and
northern Wyoming this afternoon. These conditions may support
locally elevated fire weather concerns; however, the duration and
spatial extent of wind/RH overlap are forecast to remain relatively
limited. Thus, Elevated highlights have been withheld.
...Great Basin...
Southwesterly flow of 15-25 mph amid minimum RH values of 10-20%
will continue across the eastern/southern portions of the Great
Basin today. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop
where recent rainfall was minimal and/or where pockets of dry fuels
remain. Generally marginal fuels across this region are expected to
preclude a broader fire weather risk, however.
..Chalmers.. 09/05/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 050553
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Persistent upper-level troughing over the Pacific Northwest and
Northeast will continue on Day 2/Sunday, with upper ridging
remaining in place over the southern Plains. A series of shortwave
troughs embedded within strengthening southwesterly flow will
transition northeastward across portions of the Great Basin/Northern
Rockies, which will begin to advect subtropical moisture into the
Desert Southwest/Great Basin, likely bringing additional cloud cover
and some chances for rain to the region. These factors will largely
mitigate fire weather concerns in the western U.S.
...Eastern Idaho into central/northern Wyoming...
Dry and breezy conditions are forecast across portions of eastern
Idaho and central/northern Wyoming Sunday afternoon. These
conditions may support locally elevated fire weather concerns across
this region, especially across central/northern Wyoming where drier
fuels exist. The expected limited duration and spatial extent of
meteorological conditions combined with uncertainty regarding cloud
cover and its impact on RH reductions precludes the addition of
Elevated highlights at this time, however.
...Central Great Basin...
Another day of dry, southwesterly flow is forecast across portions
of the central Great Basin. Locally elevated fire weather conditions
may develop where pockets of drier fine fuels exist; however, a
broader fire weather risk is not anticipated owing to generally
marginal fuels.
..Chalmers.. 09/05/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 042121
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0421 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough bringing much of the northwestern U.S. cooler
temperatures, cloud cover and rain will linger through the weekend,
ejecting into the northern High Plains by Day 5/Tuesday. Subtropical
moisture advecting into the Desert Southwest and Great Basin on Days
3-4/Sunday-Monday will likely bring additional cloud cover and some
rain to this region. This troughing pattern and attendant
precipitation will largely mitigate fire weather concerns in the
western U.S. through the middle of next week. Hot and dry conditions
under a persistent upper ridge over the central CONUS are expected
through the weekend, although accompanied by relatively light
surface winds.
...Northern High Plains...
As the aforementioned upper trough translates northeastward this
weekend, advecting subtropical moisture will provide opportunities
for rainfall across the north-central states. Despite cooler daytime
temperatures, a drier airmass and strong southwesterly flow aloft
could bring fire weather concerns back into portions of
central-eastern Wyoming on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. Critical
probabilities have been withheld due to uncertainty in cloud cover
and potential impacts from much anticipated precipitation, but may
be needed in future outlook cycles where forecast meteorological
conditions overlap rainfall-neglected fuels.
...Southern Plains...
Beneath an accelerating upper-level trough and attendant mid-level
jet, a surface low should evolve across the Northern Plains on Days
4-5/Monday-Tuesday. The increasing pressure gradient will likely
enhance southerly winds across the central and southern Plains where
fuels remain very dry (forecast ERC values in the 90-95th percentile
range amid areas of severe to extreme drought). This could pose a
fire weather threat to portions of the central/southern Plains where
rainfall deficits and cured/receptive fuels persist. However,
forecast uncertainty in RH reductions and degree of a drier,
downslope-enhanced southwesterly flow precludes introduction of
critical probabilities at this time.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/04/2026
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