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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 110558
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest,
stretching into the Northern Rockies while mid-level troughing edges
closer to the OR/northern CA coast. Modest mid-level flow on the
northern periphery of the ridge and efficient boundary layer mixing
should support a swath of dry, west/northwest surface winds this
afternoon from northeastern CA, northern Great Basin, arcing
eastward into the high plains of eastern WY. These elevated fire
conditions will be north of deeper monsoonal moisture across the
Southwest, southern Great Basin and CO River Basin regions where a
mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms over higher terrain
are expected.
...Northern Great Basin, southern Idaho and Wyoming...
Fuels remain quite receptive across northeastern CA into
northwestern NV after multiple days of single digit daytime RH
values and poor overnight recoveries as monsoon moisture remains
suppressed to the south. Modest west/southwest flow aloft and
boundary layer mixing this afternoon will support breezy and dry
conditions across this region. West winds of 10-15 mph and enhanced
downslope drying off the Sierra Nevada resulting in 10% or below RH,
will present an elevated fire weather threat to northeastern CA and
adjacent NV. Transient critical fire weather conditions are possible
where winds reach 20 mph, but on a localized basis. Similarly dry
and breezy conditions over receptive fuels will promote elevated
fire weather concerns across southern ID, eastward into the high
plains of WY.
...Southern High Plains...
A lee cyclone across the Central Plains will bolster a modest south
wind across the Southern High Plains today. Southerly winds of up to
15 mph and surface RH as low as 10% within a well-mixed boundary
layer will combine to generate elevated fire weather conditions over
the northeastern TX Panhandle, northwestern OK and adjacent southern
KS this afternoon. Fuels receptivity continues to increase from
curing fine fuels amid expanding drought.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The potential for dry thunderstorms exists primarily on the northern
fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture entrenched across the
Southwest. Weak vertical shear within the upper ridge over the
region will confine thunderstorms to higher terrain features as
diurnal instability increases this afternoon. The slow movement
combined with PWAT values of 0.75-1.00 inch will limit ignition
potential to outside heavier rain cores. In addition, northward
transport of richer monsoon moisture is expected D2/Wednesday as
troughing deepens near the West Coast. Expected rainfall will
further reduce holdover threats with longer term fuel improvement as
higher humidity, cooler temperatures and additional shower and
thunderstorm activity (with possible wetting rains) emerge later
this week across the Southwest and Great Basin. Therefore, dry
thunderstorm highlights were not introduced.
..Williams.. 08/11/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 110649
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing encroaches into the Pacific Northwest and
northern CA coast on D2/Wednesday as upper ridging begins to shift
eastward. The trough and increasing moisture from the Pacific will
aid in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm development across higher
terrain of northwestern MT, ID Panhandle and northeastern WA
Wednesday afternoon. Breezy and dry conditions north of more robust
monsoon moisture across the Southwest will promote an elevated fire
weather threat for parts of northeastern CA and adjacent OR/NV as
well as the Upper Snake River Plain. A surface low across the
central Plains will bolster southerly winds across the Southern High
Plains, promoting elevated fire weather concerns for portions of the
TX Panhandle, northwestern OK and southwestern KS.
...Southern Plains...
Hot and dry conditions will persist south of a frontal boundary over
northern KS on D2/Wednesday. A parent surface low over western KS
will enhance southerly winds across much of the Southern Plains by
Wednesday afternoon. The southerly winds of around 15 mph, RH
dropping to as low as 10% amid a drought stressed fuelscape will
promote an elevated fire weather threat for portions of the TX
Panhandle, northwestern OK and adjacent southern KS. Elevated
highlights were adjusted westward based on latest model guidance and
expected fuel conditions.
...Northeastern Washington, Idaho Panhandle and Northwestern
Montana...
Thunderstorms are expected across neighboring higher terrain to the
north of the Columbia Basin Wednesday afternoon as increasing
mid/upper level moisture accompanies a deepening trough across the
Pacific Northwest. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will likely
evolve as PWATs reach into the 0.80-1.00 inch range amid
increasingly instability. However, fuels remain quite receptive with
ERCs still reaching into the 90-95th percentiles so concerns for new
ignitions remain. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights
were warranted given ongoing fire activity in the Pacific Northwest.
...Northeastern California, northwestern Nevada and far southern
Oregon...
Flow aloft will back to the southwest over the Great Basin as the
upper trough pushes into the West Coast and broader ridge slides
eastward. A very dry residual boundary layer and developing westerly
winds of up to 15 mph during peak afternoon heating will support
elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels across northeastern
CA, northwestern NV and southern OR. Farther east, similar
west/southwest winds of around 15 mph and RH as low as 15% will
support an enhanced fire weather threat for the Upper Snake River
Plain in ID. Introduced Elevated fire weather highlights for both of
these areas as deeper monsoon moisture remains to the south at least
for Wednesday.
..Williams.. 08/11/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 102158
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
As weak troughing builds across the western CONUS, high pressure
over the Four Corners will gradually translate eastward and settle
in the Southeast this weekend. As a result, hot, dry, and breezy
conditions will promote fire concerns across portions of the
southern Plains, and contribute to the drying of fuels into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. As monsoonal moisture continues to advect
northward, daily chances for thunderstorms are expected throughout
in the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and Colorado Rockies. Mid to
late week, weak troughing over the West and a shortwave trough
approaching the Pacific Northwest should encourage thunderstorms and
wetting rain potential across much of the Rocky Mountain chain into
the High Plains.
...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
...Northeastern Washington, Idaho Panhandle, and northwestern
Montana...
A shortwave trough will impinge upon the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies with an accompanying plume of moisture. Ensemble
guidance depicts sufficient instability across the region amid
stronger southwesterly flow aloft, promoting greater thunderstorm
potential. Given a prolonged dry airmass and very receptive fuels,
lightning ignitions are possible where favorable rainfall
accumulations are unlikely. Recent guidance indicates higher
probabilities of accumulating rainfall (0.5" or greater) in central
to eastern Montana. As such, 10% Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have
been confined to where less precipitation efficiency is expected,
and forecast ERCs remain at the 80-95th percentiles. While much
desired rainfall is forecast across portions of the northern Rockies
through the weekend, it is worth noting the exceptionally dry
fuelscape will be sensitive to lightning ignitions, even in areas
not outlined by dry thunderstorm probabilities.
...Northern California...
Troughing should settle over the western CONUS on Day 3/Wednesday as
the Four Corners high shifts eastward. Monsoonal moisture will
advect northward, combining with daytime instability to generate
5-10% probabilities of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Some
potential exists for nocturnal convection west of the Sierra Crest
on Day 3/Wednesday night into Day 4/Thursday morning; however,
varying model guidance precludes probabilities at this time. On Day
4/Thursday, ensembles indicate more sufficient instability and
higher cloud bases in the northern California higher
terrain/adjacent foothills, enhancing concerns for lightning-induced
ignitions within the receptive fuelscape. As such, 10% Dry
Thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained.
...Southern High Plains...
High pressure will center over the Central U.S. on Day 4/Wednesday,
and will continue to slide eastward through the forecast period.
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will persist across portions of
western Oklahoma, the TX/OK Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas
where fuels are growing increasingly receptive. 40% Critical
probabilities remain on Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday, and were
introduced on Day 5/Friday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/10/2026
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