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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 260631
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning
water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing
the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the
Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into
the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady
deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the
day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the
southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble
output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely
across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath
of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far
western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of
the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will
support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions.
A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High
Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely
in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope
warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon.
Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to
mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range
again today.
Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning
across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests
little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of
dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the
85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support
the fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 04/26/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 260709
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
and TX.
Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
highlights were introduced.
..Moore.. 04/26/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252126
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
A lingering subtropical jet and lee surface troughing will continue
to bring dry and breezy conditions and resultant adverse fire
weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and Southern Plains
Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. Upper-level troughing deepens across the
eastern U.S. by midweek, while a surface low and cold front provides
much needed rainfall for portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic.
Another upper-level short wave reaches the Southwest on Day
6/Thursday, while a surface low evolves ahead of this mid-level
feature across west TX. This would support widespread rainfall
across NM and much of the Southern Plains on Thursday night into Day
7/Friday morning, as low-level moisture makes marked westward
progress well into eastern NM, mitigating the fire weather threat
across the region.
...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
A fire weather threat will persist across portions of the Southwest
and Southern Plains Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday as robust, 55-65 knot
mid-level flow from the west-southwest continues over this region
early next week. Subsequent lee surface troughing in concert with
deep layer westerly winds aloft will support dry, westerly flow and
fire weather concerns across much of NM and the southern High Plains
where broad 40% probabilities were largely maintained.
At the surface, a cold front should sweep southward east of the
Continental Divide midweek. Latest forecast guidance still suggests
an improving fire weather scenario unfolding across the Southern
Plains by the Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday time frame. Widespread
rainfall is possible across much of the Southern Plains and into
portions of the Southwest ahead of an advancing upper-level trough
moving into northern Mexico Thursday night into Friday. A troughing
pattern across the eastern U.S. should similarly ameliorate, at
least temporarily, fire weather concerns for the Appalachians,
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic as a cold front and attendant
precipitation push through the region.
..Williams.. 04/25/2026
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