United States & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast

U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast

Map is in operation from early April through October 31

U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 290557

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A closed mid-level low will continue to traverse the southwestern
   CONUS today as the remnants of Hurricane Polo become entrained
   within the overall flow, aiding in widespread rainfall from the
   Desert Southwest into the central U.S. Meanwhile, surface high
   pressure filtering into the Intermountain West will contribute to
   dry northerly flow across portions of the Sacramento Valley and
   southern California. Farther north, increasing westerly flow aloft
   and a tightening surface pressure gradient across the northern
   Rockies/High Plains will promote breezy, downslope winds in
   north-central Montana.

   ...Sacramento Valley and Southern California...
   Daytime high temperatures in the 90s and RH values of 10-15% are
   expected as a strengthening thermal trough induces northerly winds
   of 10-15 mph into the Sacramento Valley. Meteorological conditions
   amid a drying fuelscape support an Elevated fire weather risk this
   afternoon. Northerly, offshore wind trajectories and RH as low as
   15% will also impact southern Santa Barbara County, and the
   mountains and foothills of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties through
   the early afternoon. Wind speeds in favored terrain gaps will
   approach 15-20 mph with stronger gusts of 35-45 mph. Thus, Elevated
   highlights have been maintained for portions of southern California.

   ...North-Central Montana...
   A region of 50-60 kt mid-level zonal flow atop a tightening surface
   pressure gradient across the northern High Plains will contribute to
   dry downslope flow over portions of north-central Montana this
   afternoon. Westerly surface winds of 15-25 mph and minimum RH of
   20-25 percent will overlap drying fuels, promoting an Elevated fire
   weather risk.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/29/2026

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 290601 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A ridge of high pressure will transition into the western CONUS, bringing warmer temperatures and a lighter wind regime to California and the western Great Basin on Day 2/Wednesday. The center of an eastward progressing mid-level low will enter New Mexico, gradually weakening as it becomes reincorporated within broader troughing. Southerly flow will deepen ahead of the low, providing ample moisture transport bringing PWAT values above the 95th percentile across much of the central CONUS into the Upper Midwest. This system will induce widespread precipitation over an environment stressed by long-term drought, particularly across portions of the southern Plains and the New Mexico/Colorado Rocky Mountains. Ahead of the advancing moisture, a residual hot and dry airmass will remain in place across the lower Mississippi River Valley where receptive fuels exist; however, light surface winds should limit fire weather concerns. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/29/2026

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282124

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0424 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

   Valid 301200Z - 061200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A closed upper low laden with remnant moisture from former hurricane
   Polo will eject into southern/central Plains through midweek
   bringing swaths of much needed rainfall to the region and a reduced
   fire weather threat. A residual hot and dry air mass will remain in
   place across the Southeast ahead of the advancing deep moisture
   plume. However, light southerly winds should limit a broader fire
   weather threat despite very dry fuels across the lower MS River
   Valley. An upper-level ridge builds over the West as the upper low
   pushes east of the Continental Divide by Day 4/Thursday. This will
   usher in a prolonged warm and dry period across much of the West
   through early next week. However, light surface winds should limit
   larger scale fire weather concerns with the warm/dry conditions
   providing a primary impact to drying fuels. Latest ensemble guidance
   hints at a short wave intrusion into the broader ridge pattern as
   early as Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but predictability remains low.

   ..Williams.. 09/28/2026

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