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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 220607
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis...
A cold front will move southward into the southern Plains today. Dry
and breezy conditions are expected both ahead of and behind the
front.
...Texas Panhandle/South Plains/Rolling Plains into central
Oklahoma...
The fire environment will be somewhat complex today. The timing of
the cold front still appears to be during the mid/late morning in
the southern High Plains and early afternoon for central Oklahoma.
Winds will be westerly/southwesterly ahead of the front with a sharp
change to northerly behind it. Temperatures in the 80s/90s F are
possible ahead of the front. Even behind the front, areas of 70s F
are still possible in the High Plains. Winds of 20-25 mph (perhaps
locally higher) are forecast in the pre- and post-frontal
environment. Strong gusts will also occur. Given ERC values at or
above the 95th percentile due to anomalously warm/hot temperatures
and ongoing drought, Critical fire weather is possible even in areas
where RH will be in the 25-30% range. That said, locations ahead of
the front will likely be quite dry during the afternoon (10-20% can
be expected).
...Southwest...
A very dry airmass will be in place during the afternoon. RH in the
single digits is certainly possible, though the spatial extent is
not clear. 10-15% RH will be observed more broadly. Relatively weak
winds will limit the overall fire weather threat. 10-15 mph can be
expected in most places with perhaps some higher speeds within the
terrain. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected.
...Central Texas into parts of the Ozarks...
Dry and breezy conditions will occur ahead of the front.
Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph are generally expected, though some
locally higher winds are possible. RH will drop to 20-30% by the
afternoon. Fuel receptiveness generally decreases with eastward
extent given rainfall in the last week. Even so, Elevated fire
weather is expected for these areas.
..Wendt.. 03/22/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 220608
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
On Monday, an upper-level trough is expected to amplify across parts
of the East. A cold front will push southward through the southern
Appalachians. Dry southerly return flow will occur in the Plains.
...Piedmont...
Dry and breezy downslope winds will occur behind the cold front
during the afternoon. RH could drop as low as 25-30%. Winds of
around 15 mph are possible, though locally higher speeds could
occur. Some precipitation occurred late Saturday afternoon,
especially in Upstate South Carolina. Locally elevated conditions
remain possible in South Carolina, but confidence in sustained
Elevated conditions is higher farther north where fuels should be
relatively drier.
...Southwest into the Plains...
A more nebulous surface pattern will generally keep winds weak in
most areas. However, some enhanced southerly winds are possible,
particularly in portions of the southern/central Plains. RH the
Southwest will likely remain in the 10-20% range. RH in the Plains
is less certain, but pockets around 20% could be observed. Without
stronger surface winds, only locally elevated conditions are
expected.
..Wendt.. 03/22/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 212113
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
A shortwave trough will traverse the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic
regions on Day 3/Monday as an upper level ridge begins to build back
across the western US. Although less intense than the recent
heatwave, this will once again increase surface temperatures, likely
breaking daily records over much of the southern two-thirds of the
western US once again. On Day 5/Wednesday, a potent upper-level
trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and significantly will
dampen the amplitude of the ridge as it moves across the northern
CONUS border on Day 6/Thursday. The jet max will exit the Eastern
Seaboard on Day 7/Friday. While significant uncertainty exists among
forecast guidance beyond this time frame, another western US
transitory ridge will be possible next weekend.
On Day 3/Monday, over the lee side of the central Appalachians,
expect a cold front to sweep across the region. This will deliver
sustained northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph, gusting over 30 mph in
exposed and downslope areas, combined with RHs of 20-30% resulting
in a 40% likelihood of critical conditions. The latest guidance
shows that weaker flow aloft over Wyoming will preclude any
probability of critical conditions there.
On Day 5/Wednesday, as the ridge over the western US breaks down,
warm surface temperatures aided by lee troughing will support a
robust boundary layer, mixing into strong westerly winds associated
with the passing upper-level jet. The latest forecast guidance
indicates sustained west winds of 20-30 mph will combine with RHs of
10-20% at the surface for several hours during the afternoon. Thus,
a 70% area exists for much of east-central Wyoming while 40%
probabilities cover portions of northern Colorado and much of the
Nebraska Panhandle where surface winds are not expected to be as
strong.
On Day 6/Thursday, an area of 40% probability was introduced as a
cold front supported by the aforementioned passing upper-level
trough is expected to surge south across the central and southern
Plains. While uncertainty in the timing and evolution of this cold
front will likely necessitate adjustments to the risk area over the
coming days, the southern High Plains currently stands the best
chance to experience critical fire weather conditions with this
frontal passage.
..Stearns.. 03/21/2026
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