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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 260800
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UTAH INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UTAH...EASTERN
NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO...
...Synopsis...
Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest today as a robust fire weather pattern
begins for an expansive portion of the Intermountain West. This
pattern will bring exceptionally dry and windy conditions following
antecedent dry thunderstorm activity over the past 1-2 days,
resulting in significant fire weather concerns for any new
ignitions, lingering holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the
western CONUS.
...Northwestern Arizona and far southeastern Nevada into central
Utah...
A seasonably strong mid-level trough will dig into the western CONUS
today, with an attendant mid-level jet overspreading portions of the
Great Basin as upper-level ridging amplifies over the Great Plains.
This will promote a deepening surface cyclone over the northern
Great Basin, which will subsequently support a strong surface
pressure gradient across much of the Intermountain West when
combined with surface high pressure over New Mexico. Latest high-res
guidance continues to depict a corridor of strong southwesterly
winds (sustained 25-35 mph) developing amid very low RH values of
5-15% from far southeastern Nevada and northwestern Arizona into
central Utah. With very dry and receptive fuels across this region
(ERCs in the 80-90+ percentiles) and ongoing large wildfire
activity, these conditions will yield an extremely critical fire
weather threat across this region. Deep boundary layer mixing
coupled with the aforementioned mid-level jet will also promote wind
gusts to 45 mph. A more expansive area of elevated to critical fire
weather concerns is expected across adjacent areas of the Great
Basin where modestly weaker sustained surface winds (generally 15-25
mph) are forecast to overlap very low RH values of 5-20%. An
extended period of critical wind/RH conditions (perhaps 10+ hours
for some locations), poor overnight humidity recoveries, and
residual gusty winds are forecast. Only minor adjustments were made
to the drawn areas with this update to reflect the latest available
guidance, and minor trimming was done on the northeastern extent of
the Elevated highlights in central Wyoming to account for heavier
rainfall on Thursday.
...Colorado Plateau...
Increasing mid-level flow and ascent ahead of the approaching
mid-level trough (coupled with dry boundary layer profiles and PWAT
values of 0.5-0.8") will support the potential for isolated dry
thunderstorms this afternoon from northwestern New Mexico into much
of western Colorado. While storm motions are anticipated to be
generally 20-30+ kts, pockets of heavier rainfall totals are
possible, especially across northwestern New Mexico and southwestern
Colorado where the latest guidance suggests PWAT contents and storm
coverage may be locally greater. Thus, a mix of wet/dry
thunderstorms is likely. Pockets of lingering receptive fuels (ERCs
in the 80-90+ percentile) will continue to be receptive to lightning
ignitions, however, and concerns regarding any lightning ignitions
increase as multiple days of critical fire weather conditions are
expected this weekend.
..Chalmers.. 06/26/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 260802
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...SOUTHERN WYOMING...AND WESTERN
COLORADO...
...Synopsis...
A seasonably strong mid-level trough will continue to dig into the
western CONUS on D2/Saturday, with an attendant mid-level jet
overspreading much of the Upper Colorado River Basin. This will
continue to support a robust fire weather pattern across an
expansive portion of the Great Basin and Southwest through the
weekend.
...Great Basin/Southwest...
As the mid-level jet associated with the digging mid-level trough
shifts eastward into the Upper Colorado River Valley, a corridor of
stronger, sustained surface winds (25-30 mph) will expand from
southeastern Nevada into the Colorado Plateau and overlap with very
low RH values of 10-15%. Exacerbated by dry, windy conditions on
D1/Friday, fuels will be very receptive, with ERCs already noted in
the 80-90+ percentiles. These conditions will promote an extended
period of critical fire weather conditions from southeastern Nevada
into the Upper Colorado River Basin and southern Wyoming. Localized
extremely critical wind/RH conditions are possible, particularly
across southeastern Utah and perhaps into southwestern Colorado
where latest high-res guidance suggests that the best overlap of
sustained southwesterly winds approaching 30 mph and very low RH
near 10% may occur. Pockets of fuels in this region are also noted
to be at or above the 95th percentile. A broader area of elevated
wind/RH conditions are expected across adjacent areas of the Great
Basin/Southwest where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to
overlap dry fuels and RH values of 10-20%.
The primary change with this outlook was to expand the Critical
highlights into north central Colorado based on the latest high-res
guidance. Consideration was given to the addition of a targeted
Extremely Critical area; however, some uncertainty remains regarding
the duration of overlap between sustained winds exceeding 30 mph and
RH values dropping below 10%. A portion of the Elevated highlights
were also trimmed across central Wyoming and the foothills of
northern Colorado owing to recent rainfall.
..Chalmers.. 06/26/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252202
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust fire weather pattern is expected to persist across an
expansive portion of the Intermountain West through the middle of
next week. Dry thunderstorms early in the forecast period followed
by consecutive days of exceptionally dry and breezy conditions will
promote significant fire weather concerns for any new ignitions,
lightning holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the western
CONUS.
Forecast guidance continues to show a major, seasonally abnormal
trough traversing the western CONUS through Day 4/Sunday, posing
considerable fire weather concerns for the Great Basin and much of
the Southwest. A strong cold front and accompanying wind shift (from
broadly southwesterly to northerly) will push through the region
sometime on Sunday. This wind shift and associated wind gusts may
further exacerbate ongoing wildfires and impact control efforts.
...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday...
A strong mid-level jet overspreads much of the Interior West as an
upper trough amplifies across the Northwestern U.S., scouring out
remaining meaningful atmospheric moisture in the Great Basin and
Southwest. Forecast guidance suggests a corridor of stronger
southwesterly winds of 25-35 mph developing under the stronger jet,
expanding from southeastern NV into the CO Plateau on Day
3/Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions will continue on Day
4/Sunday as the mid-level jet translates slightly eastward,
expanding from the Four Corners into the northern Plains. Of note,
Day 4/Sunday may be a third consecutive day of amplified sustained
winds of 25-35 mph across portions of the Great Basin. An extended
burning period is expected, with consecutive days of poor overnight
humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds further exacerbating
the fire environment. The potential for localized extremely critical
fire weather conditions may exist where single-digit RH and very
strong sustained winds overlap receptive fuels.
...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday...
Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing across the West should support a prolonged fire weather
threat across the central Rockies, Great Basin and parts of the
Southwest. As such, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained.
Fuels are expected to remain quite receptive through the extended
forecast period with minimal-to-no chances of precipitation this
weekend into early next week.
A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the central and
eastern CONUS next week, maintaining a troughing pattern across the
West. Above normal temperatures and overall drier conditions may
encourage fire weather concerns to emerge in the Southeast. As dry
southwesterly flow persists across the Southwest and Great Basin
through the forecast period, Critical fire weather probabilities may
be needed in future outlooks as guidance becomes better resolved.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/25/2026
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