U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 301631
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025
Valid 301700Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Today's fire weather outlook remains largely on-track, with no
changes needed to the ongoing outlook. While isolated showers and
perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into
early evening across portions of northeast Oregon, far southeast
Washington, and adjacent portions of Idaho, low confidence in
lightning potential coupled with uncertainty regarding fuels status,
especially given recent rainfall over the past 24-48 hours,
precludes introducing an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area.
Nevertheless, a few new ignitions may be possible where fuels remain
at least locally receptive - mainly across portions of northeast
Oregon.
Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
today's fire weather forecast.
..Elliott.. 08/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on
today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US
with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off
the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water
increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades.
Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind
speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity
expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across
portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where
breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat
appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this
time.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 300449
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde
westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds
will be possible across portions of northern California across the
Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for
localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain
too isolated to include any areas at this time.
..Thornton.. 08/30/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 292127
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary
along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday
before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday.
Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building
across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through
late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to
drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of
central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day
7/Thursday.
...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland
Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin...
The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is
forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of
northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great
Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are
forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis,
precluding Critical probabilities.
...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the
Northwest...
Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across
portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday
through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the
area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase
in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn
periods on ongoing large fires.
Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the
evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is
now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California
coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday.
While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture
interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit
too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of
thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities.
Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next
week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning
potential will be monitored closely over the next few days.
..Elliott.. 08/29/2025
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