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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 130659

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong upper-level low with a 65-70 kt jet streak is expected to
   progress eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, resulting in
   widespread dry and windy conditions across portions of the Great
   Basin into the Snake River Valley and far southwestern Montana. 

   ...Great Basin into portions of Idaho and Montana...
   Dry and windy conditions owing to deep boundary layer mixing beneath
   the strong upper low and associated jet streak will result in
   widespread 15-20 MPH winds across much of the Great Basin during the
   afternoon. From southern Nevada into far western Utah, relative
   humidity could reach as low as 10-15% with southwesterly winds,
   while the post-frontal airmass across northern Nevada will possess
   westerly winds with 15-20% relative humidity. With ERCs approaching
   the 80th annual percentiles, at least Elevated fire-weather
   conditions are expected, and locally Critical conditions are
   possible where terrain induced wind gusts are favored. Further north
   into the Snake River Valley and portions of southwest Montana,
   southwest winds of 20 MPH (with locally higher gusts) are
   anticipated to overlap with relative humidity of around 15%. While
   there appears to be a potential corridor for Critical fire-weather
   concerns, they overlap with more modest fuels and a lower density
   fuelscape.

   ..Halbert.. 09/13/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130700

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast Monday as
   strong jet streak associated with an upper-level low progresses from
   the Northern Rockies into the Northern Great Plains. Meteorological
   conditions will reach well into Critical criteria for wind and RH,
   but potential precipitation and a somewhat unfavorable fuelscape
   will generally temper the fire-weather concerns. 


   ...Central and Eastern Wyoming into portions of the Northern Great
   Plains...
   Strong westerly winds of 25-30 MPH are forecast to develop across
   southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle, with daytime
   relative humidity as low as 10-15%. Though fuels guidance suggests
   receptiveness to ignition and spread, a generally low-density
   fuelscape and potential precipitation will serve to reduce overall
   fire-weather concerns. Further north, winds of 30-35 MPH are
   forecast with the postfrontal airmass that will have generally
   higher relative humidity above 20% and cooler temperatures. Given
   the mentioned uncertainties, the area and magnitude of fire-weather
   highlights may change in subsequent updates.

   ..Halbert.. 09/13/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122138

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0438 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A deamplifying upper-level trough moves into the Great Lakes region
   by Day 4/Tuesday as ridging continues across the southern CONUS,
   generating some fire weather concerns for portions of the
   central/northern High Plains on Day 3/Monday. Otherwise, a relaxing
   mid/upper jet pattern will emerge across the northern U.S. next week
   as stronger westerly flow aloft shifts into Canada. A less dynamic
   upper trough should move into the northwestern U.S. by midweek, but
   surface pressure response and resultant wind speeds will be muted
   mitigating a broader scale fire weather threat. The upper trough
   should also aid in suppressing subtropical moisture influx into CA
   and the Great Basin, where mostly dry conditions will prevail.

   ...Day 3/Monday...
   ...Portions of the Northern High Plains...
   A 65-75 knot mid-level jet associated with the eastward progressing
   upper wave across the Northern Rockies will move into the Northern
   Plains through Day 3/Monday. In response, a deepening lee surface
   trough evolves across the central/northern Plains. Strong westerly
   winds (15-25 mph) stretching from southern WY to the NE Panhandle
   and low daytime RH will support a fire weather threat Monday.
   Farther north, a similarly windy environment within dry,
   post-frontal flow from the west-northwest, could also present fire
   weather concerns across portions of northern WY, far southeastern MT
   and parts of western SD. 40% critical probabilities have been
   introduced for these areas as fuels remain receptive in the region.
   There remains some forecast uncertainty in expected rainfall
   distribution and amounts leading up to Monday, so the highlighted
   threat area could change in subsequent outlooks.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Persistent south winds each day are expected across portions of the
   Southern Plains next week under a meandering upper ridge across the
   southeastern U.S. Well above normal temperatures in the upper 90s to
   lower 100s F will maintain a receptive fuelscape where rainfall was
   minimized, primarily across southwestern OK and portions of
   northwestern TX. However, ensemble guidance probabilities of surface
   RH falling below 25% are low, reducing confidence in alignment of
   southerly winds of 15-20 mph and suppressing a more significant fire
   weather threat.

   ..Williams.. 09/12/2026
      




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