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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 091653
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated winds/RH are already developing in portions of
southeast New Mexico, and elevated to perhaps locally critical
winds/RH are likely during the afternoon in portions of southeast
New Mexico and west Texas. However, given the marginal fuels
conditions, no areas are necessary, and the forecast remains on
track.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains
today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the
surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan
toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward
through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and
breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across
portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While
localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across
this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large
wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 091859
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated conditions are possible in the Big Bend region of
Texas during the afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track, and please see the previous discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern
CONUS with strong northwesterly flow upstream. At the surface, high
pressure will build in over the central CONUS in the wake of a
cold-frontal passage. Despite a shift to northerly surface winds
over southern Plains, temperatures are still expected to warm into
the upper 50s F. Given the strong northerly to northeasterly winds
just above the surface, vertical mixing could lead to gusty winds
around midday as RH values fall below 25% across portions of
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Even with dry and breezy conditions,
fuels across the region are generally not receptive for large
wildfires, limiting fire-weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 092154
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
Upper-level ridging is likely to continue over the West with mostly
upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes, Northeast, and into the
Southeast through the weekend. Weak upper lows may traverse through
the ridge across the southern half of the West late this weekend
into early next week. Much of the Southwest, southern/central
Plains, and west/north Texas are likely to receive little to no
precipitation during the forecast period.
While downslope flow with lee troughing will enhance at times during
the forecast period, including on Day 3/Thursday and over the
weekend, on portions of the southern/central High Plains. However,
probabilities of elevated/critical winds/RH overlapping areas with
receptive fuels remain too low to include probabilities.
Portions of the Southeast will receive little to no rainfall during
the forecast period. Additionally, multiple dry cold frontal
passages with dry airmasses filtering in behind are expected for the
Southeast over the next week. However, recent rainfall and weak
winds will mitigate fire weather concerns.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
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