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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 110703
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough embedded within westerly flow over the
northern Rockies will aid in the development of a surface cyclone
across the Northern Great Plains, bringing dry and windy conditions
to portions of eastern Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota today.
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast across portions of
southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska into southwestern South
Dakota as the surface low and subsequent cold front progress towards
the east.
...Eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska and southwestern South
Dakota...
From late morning into early afternoon, the surface low over western
and central South Dakota is forecast to deepen and progress
eastward. Prefrontal strong westerly downslope winds of 20-25 MPH
are forecast with relative humidity of 15-20%, and postfrontal winds
of roughly the same magnitude will be out of the north-northwest by
mid-to-late afternoon. The dry and windy conditions will overlap
with fuels that are critically receptive to wildfire ignition and
spread, warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. Fuel
receptiveness drops off fairly rapidly with eastward extent, so
highlights were confined to where the meteorological and fuel
conditions best overlap.
Further west into eastern Wyoming, winds will remain around 20 MPH
but relative humidity should remain above 25%. Fuel receptiveness
extends well into eastern Wyoming, so if forecast updates come in
windier and dryer, there could be an extension of the Critical
highlights westward.
..Halbert.. 09/11/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 110707
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper low is forecast to move into portions of the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday with a fairly strong 70 kt jet streak. As this
jet streak begins to enter the Great Basin, the cross-range flow and
boundary layer mixing will result in dry and breezy conditions
supporting Elevated fire-weather highlights.
...Northern Nevada into far southern portions of Oregon and Idaho...
Westerly surface winds should become fairly gusty, reaching 20-25
MPH and relative humidity of 10-15%. However, fuels are generally in
the vicinity of the 50th-60th annual ERC percentiles, suggesting a
lack of receptiveness to wildfire ignition and spread. In spite of
the meager fuels, meteorological conditions will warrant at least
Elevated highlights owing to the strong surface winds.
..Halbert.. 09/11/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 102046
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will enter the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Rockies this weekend with an accompanying 60-70 kt jet over the
Great Basin. This pattern may provide broader precipitation chances
and much cooler temperatures to the northwestern CONUS, thus
subduing fire weather concerns; however, strong southwesterly winds
amid critically low RH values may support a broader fire weather
threat in the Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday. As troughing departs
into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region early next week, a
very dry airmass and near normal temperatures will reside over the
western CONUS. Simultaneously, ridging is forecast to build across
the Southeast favoring drier conditions and above normal
temperatures.
...Day 3/Saturday...
A robust upper low will impinge upon the northwestern U.S. on Day
3/Saturday, amplifying west-southwesterly flow over northern CA and
the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance depicts expansive 60-80%
probabilities of wind speeds exceeding 25 mph amid critically low RH
in northeastern CA, northern NV, southeastern OR, and southern ID.
Despite modest ERCs, drought-stressed fuels could support new
ignitions given the severity of meteorological conditions. As a
result, 40% Critical probabilities were maintained across the
region. Farther west, gusty west/southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph
and RH values of 15-25% are expected in the Sacramento Valley.
Marginal fuels preclude Critical probabilities at this time;
however, new ignitions cannot be ruled out within localized dry
fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/10/2026
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