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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 121650
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...Central and Northern High Plains...
Robust mid-level northwest flow aloft along with enhanced lee
troughing across the northern High Plains will continue to favor
enhanced downslope winds and drying across central MT and eastern
WY. RH recoveries across central MT were generally below 40%, with
RH expected to fall into the 20-30% range this afternoon. Current
sustained west winds of 20-30 mph (locally 30-40 mph in adjacent
leeward locations) with higher gusts will persist through the
afternoon. These conditions will align with dry fine fuels to
enhance wildland fire risk in lower, snow-free elevations. Farther
south across eastern WY, a tapering off of mid-level flow should
promote slightly reduced surface westerly winds across the area.
However, drier conditions with relative humidity as low as 20%
across southeastern WY/far western NE Panhandle and dry fuels will
yield a period of elevated fire weather concerns through this
afternoon, with an extension of Elevated highlights into this
region.
...Southern Plains...
A tightening surface pressure gradient associated with a broad
surface trough extending southward across the Plains will encourage
development of breezy southwest winds across portions of OK/northern
TX. However, stronger winds of up to 20 mph across southern and
central OK will be displaced eastward of a markedly drier air mass
across much of the southern High Plains and northwest TX.
Nonetheless, brief elevated fire weather concerns could emerge
across southwest/central OK where breezy winds align with relative
humidity below 20%.
..Williams.. 01/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high
pressure building to the West. This will favor continued
northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. A stronger shortwave
trough within the flow aloft will pass over the northern and central
Rockies this afternoon. This, along with a strong surface pressure
gradient will boost westerly low-level flow across the region,
supporting an increase in fire-weather concerns.
...Central and Northern High Plains...
Strong downslope winds are expected across much of the Rockies and
adjacent High Plains today as upper-level ridging rapidly builds
over the West. A shortwave trough embedded within strong
west/northwesterly flow will move southeastward overspreading an
unusually warm and dry airmass for January. West-northwest winds of
20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine with relative humidity in
the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to facilitate an increased fire
danger across lower elevations of central MT and northern WY.
Farther south winds are expected to be somewhat weaker and displaced
from the stronger flow aloft. Still, strong westerly pressure
gradients and drier surface conditions could promote a few hours of
locally elevated fire-weather conditions over portions of CO/WY/NE
where fine fuels are very dry.
...Southern Plains...
Across the Southern Plains, dry southwest flow will likely support
dry and breezy conditions over parts of OK/TX. Afternoon RH values
will likely fall below 20%, though winds will be generally light.
While recent rainfall has tempered fuels to some degree, fine fuels
remain fairly dry and, some localized fire-weather concerns are
possible.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 121952
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Central High Plains...
North-northwesterly flow aloft attributed to a deepening upper-level
trough across the eastern U.S. will increase through Tuesday across
the Southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. The upper-level
support along with ongoing lee troughing will promote breezy
northwest winds of 10-20 mph across portions of central High Plains
Tuesday. Increasing cloud cover will limit boundary layer mixing to
a degree but relative humidity should still fall to around 20%
across northeastern CO and vicinity. This coupled with breezy winds
and dry/dormant fuels will likely support elevated fire weather
threat for northeastern CO, far southeastern WY and southwestern NE
Panhandle, where Elevated highlights have been added.
...Southern Plains...
Limited magnitude of southwest winds associated with a surface
trough extending southwest from the Great Lakes region will be a
primary mitigating factor in a broader fire weather threat across
the Southern Plains on Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather
conditions are still possible as afternoon RH falls below 20% across
northwestern Texas and southwestern OK where winds of up to 15 mph
amid drier fuels are expected.
...Southeast...
A residual dry air mass will persist across the Southeastern U.S.
Tuesday where RH will fall to as low as 20% on Tuesday. Although
limited recent rainfall has promoted drier fuels across portions of
southern GA and the Carolinas, a weak surface pressure gradient will
restrict winds to 10 mph or less across much of the region Tuesday
afternoon, limiting a broader fire weather concern across the
Southeast.
..Williams.. 01/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad northwesterly flow will persist over much of the CONUS as
eastern US troughing continues to intensify. A stronger shortwave
within the broad troughing will move southward over the central US
Tuesday. An accompanying cold front will also move southward with
strong surface winds along and behind it.
..Central High Plains...
As the upper trough over the East deepens, flow aloft will turn more
northerly ahead of the strong shortwave trough. This, along with the
surface cold front will support strong northerly/northwesterly
surface winds across parts of WY northern CO and NE Tuesday. At
least brief dry and breezy conditions are possible in this region
owing to the downslope winds. Currently, RH values appear only
modest owing to cloud cover and rapidly decreasing temperatures.
However, very dry fine fuels and in some dry/breezy conditions could
support brief locally elevated fire-weather potential Tuesday
afternoon before diminishing overnight.
...Southern Plains...
A period of dry southwesterly flow is forecast to develop across the
southern Plains D2/Tuesday as upper troughing intensifies over the
northeastern US. Winds are not forecast to be overly strong, but
gusts around 15 mph are possible. These winds, overlapping with low
RH of 15-20% during the afternoon could support some localized
fire-weather concerns. However, recent rainfall should preclude
broader potential.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface
high pressure settles south of the deepening low in the wake of an
earlier cold front. While strong winds appear unlikely, RH values
below 35% and drier fuels could support some brief localized
fire-weather concerns, especially across parts of coastal GA and the
Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 122159
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern will be characterized by ridging across the
western U.S. and deeper troughing east of the Continental Divide
through early next week. This will favor dry and seasonably warm
conditions across the West while pronounced troughing invites cold
front intrusions into the Plains and eastern CONUS. Post-frontal
winds, where not accompanied by precipitation, will be a focus for
fire weather concern across the Southern Plains on Day 3/Wednesday
and to a lesser extent in the Southeast on Day 4/Thursday. Dry
return flow events are possible across the Southern Plains that
could be of impact given expected minimal to no precipitation across
the region through this week.
...Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday...
A dry cold front will sweep into the Southern Plains on Day
3/Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough envelopes the eastern
U.S. Gusty north winds will enhance wildfire risk but limited RH
reductions, cloud cover and cooler temperatures should limit a more
significant fire weather threat. A rapid return to dry,
southwesterly flow across the Southern Plains is likely on Day
4/Thursday as a nascent lee trough deepens across the Great Plains
where 40% critical probabilities have been added to the TX Panhandle
area. Farther east, steady post-frontal winds across the Southeast
are likely on Day 5/Thursday, but uncertainty in some distribution
of rainfall associated with the front along with much colder
temperatures filtering into the region could limit a greater fire
weather potential for Thursday. Increasing north-northwesterly flow
aloft associated with the next approaching mid-level short wave into
the Northern Plains should overspread much of the central/northern
High Plains on Day 5/Friday. Another southward moving cold front
under the deepening mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest should
bring additional fire weather concerns to portions of the Southern
Plains. The most likely area for alignment for dry, gusty north
winds and sufficiently dry fuels should be portions of the TX
Panhandle and western OK Friday afternoon where critical
probabilities have been introduced.
..Williams.. 01/12/2026
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