ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160652

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper ridge over the central and western US is forecast to
   continue weakening as the upper trough deepens over the northern US
   and another moves onshore over the West Coast. The increase in
   westerly flow aloft will bolster surface winds over parts of
   northern CA and the Great Basin with dry and breezy conditions
   possible. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are expected over
   much of the Rockies, though likely with wetting rainfall.

   ...Northern Great Basin and northeast CA...
   As the shortwave moves onshore over the West, dry and breezy
   conditions are expected over parts of the northern Great Basin into
   northeastern CA on Day 2/Monday. Largely devoid of recent rainfall
   over the last several days, fuels remain quite dry. Warm afternoon
   temperatures and dry westerly flow of 15-20 mph are expected ahead
   of the upper trough. Afternoon RH minimums of 12-20% are also
   likely. This will support several hours of elevated fire-weather
   conditions from northeastern CA into parts of NV and southern OR.

   ...Northern Rockies...
   Ascent from the approaching upper trough will support another round
   of showers and thunderstorms over parts of ID, MT and northern WY.
   Despite more limited monsoon moisture (PWATS 0.6-0.9 inches) several
   days of wetting rainfall have tempered fuels such that dry storms
   and lightning ignitions are expected to be sporadic.

   ..Lyons.. 08/16/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152157

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0457 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid/upper troughing near the West Coast will wane as the upper ridge
   across the central US retrogrades westward by Day 3/Monday, allowing
   drier conditions to infiltrate much of the Great Basin and Cascades.
   A mid-level short wave arriving early next week along with residual
   monsoonal moisture could bring additional thunderstorms to portions
   of the Northern Rockies Day 3/Monday, while also promoting dry and
   breezy conditions across portions of the northern Great Basin.
   Extended guidance indicates a pattern shift late week as eastern
   Pacific troughing impinges upon the Northwest, bringing additional
   fire weather concerns. Forecast uncertainty increases Day 7/Friday
   onward as ensemble spread reduces predictability in the longer term
   across the western CONUS.

   ...Day 3/Monday...
   ...Central Idaho and the Northern Rockies...
   As a mid-level shortwave enters the Northwest, lingering monsoonal
   moisture and daytime heating will promote a favorable convective
   environment across portions of the Northern Rockies, central ID and
   perhaps into northeastern OR on Day 3/Monday. However, preceding
   days of showers and thunderstorms and good overnight RH recoveries
   could temporarily reduce fuel receptiveness leading up to this
   event, precluding dry thunderstorm probabilities. 

   ...Northeastern California, southern Oregon and northwestern
   Nevada...
   The aforementioned shortwave and attendant mid-level speed max will
   likely bring dry and breezy conditions to parts of the northern
   Great Basin into northeastern CA on Day 3/Monday. A relative minimum
   of rainfall has been observed in this area over the last several
   days of monsoon-related showers and thunderstorms across the broader
   western CONUS. A warming and drying trend is expected with the
   arrival of stronger west/southwest winds. Forecast meteorological
   conditions amid existing dry fuels will increase fire weather
   concerns, where 40% Critical probabilities were maintained.

   ...Day 4/Tuesday...
   ...Southern Plains...
   Expanding drought and continued above normal 100+ F temperatures
   will most likely stay in place through next week across portions of
   the Southern Plains. Increasing southerly winds are expected to
   evolve south of a nascent Central Plains surface low/trough over
   portions of northwest TX and western OK. South winds of 15-20 mph
   collocated with low afternoon RH and very dry fuels will bring
   enhanced fire weather concerns to the area on Day 4/Tuesday.

   ...Portions of the Columbia Basin...
   A split-flow regime consisting of west-northwesterly flow over
   northern WA and southwesterly flow over Oregon will increase winds
   in gap flow and terrain favored areas east of the Cascades on Day
   4/Tuesday. RH values should decrease to 25% or less amid enhanced
   wind gusts of 25-30 mph within an environment that did not receive
   accumulating rainfall, despite preceding days of thunderstorm
   activity. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced to account for
   this threat. 

   ...Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday - Northeastern California, southern
   Oregon and northwestern Nevada...
   As upper ridging expands into the Great Basin late week, an upper
   low will progress towards the West Coast and introduce stronger
   south-southwesterly flow over the Pacific Northwest. Despite some
   differences in extended guidance, the evolution of upper troughing
   depicts a favorable pattern for dry and breezy conditions to overlap
   very dry fuels across northeastern CA, southern OR, and northwestern
   NV; thus, 40% Critical probabilities were introduced. In addition,
   embedded disturbances within the troughing pattern may increase
   thunderstorm potential as monsoonal moisture advects northward.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/15/2026