ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 041849

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   The Elevated area over portions of the Southwest and Great Basin was
   expanded to the south to include much of southern AZ and more of
   southeast CA. Hot surface temperatures, leading to a deeply mixed
   boundary layer, and very dry air (down to single digit RHs) during
   peak heating over this region will combine with a tightened surface
   pressure gradient. This will yield Elevated weather conditions via
   sustained westerly winds of 10-20 mph during much of the afternoon.
   Additionally, the burn periods continue to lengthen over this region
   as RHs will struggle to recover during the overnight periods.

   ..Stearns.. 06/04/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A robust upper-level trough will approach the Northwest Coast on Day
   2/Friday, increasing mid-level southwesterly flow across the Great
   Basin. Weaker deep-layer flow will persist over the Southwest where
   a very dry airmass exists. Several perturbations embedded within
   zonal flow across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will
   continue chances for precipitation, meanwhile surface high pressure
   over the Southeast will promote dry conditions and above normal
   temperatures. 

   A warm and dry airmass will linger into Day 2/Friday across the
   Great Basin and Southwest. Latest guidance depicts weaker flow aloft
   portions of the Southwest, however, very low daytime RH near 10%
   (localized single digits) amid 10-20 mph terrain-driven winds will
   support a fire weather threat across northwest Arizona, southeastern
   Nevada, and southwestern Utah. Elevated highlights have been
   introduced where aforesaid weather conditions will overlap a region
   of receptive fuels (broad 80-90th percentile ERCs).

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042200

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   The primary driver of synoptic fire weather risks shifts eastward
   entering the weekend. On Day 3/Saturday, a potent upper-level
   trough, having advanced from the northern Pacific, will move over
   the Pacific Northwest. A cold front associated with this feature
   will progress southeastward across the western third of the United
   States. This front will introduce a major airmass transition,
   dropping daytime temperatures below seasonal normals and temporarily
   dampening fire risks across much of WA, OR, and northern CA. By Day
   4/Sunday, this initial trough shifts northeastward over the Northern
   Rockies. However, the tight surface pressure gradient ahead of the
   front, coupled with enhanced mid-level westerly-to-southwesterly
   flow, will maximize fire weather concerns across central/southern
   portions of the Intermountain West. Broad southwesterly flow
   dominates early next week before another potentially stronger,
   deeper progressive trough is modeled to impact the western half of
   the CONUS by mid-week. However, differing solutions exist as to how
   far south this system will dive as it moves across the western
   CONUS.

   ...Great Basin, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains...
   ...Day 3/Saturday...
   As the primary upper-level trough carves into the Pacific Northwest,
   a tightening surface pressure gradient will develop across the Great
   Basin and Southwest. A mid-level jet max will mix down effectively
   to the surface due to deep daytime boundary layer mixing. Sustained
   southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph are anticipated. Coincident RH
   values will plummet into the single digits and low teens, generally
   widespread between 6 and 12 percent. A 70 percent probability of
   Critical fire weather conditions has been introduced across portions
   of eastern NV, southern UT, and northern AZ where critical
   thresholds are expected to be met for multiple consecutive hours.
   Surrounding areas of the Great Basin and Four Corners region
   maintain a 40 percent Critical probability as fuels continue to dry
   rapidly and burn periods lengthen under continued high vapor
   pressure deficits. While confidence is not high enough to warrant a
   drawn area, portions of southern ID will have some opportunity to
   experience a mix of fast moving dry/wet thunderstorms.

   ...Day 4/Sunday...
   The upper-level trough tracks northeastward toward the Northern
   Rockies, pushing the trailing cold front further south and east.
   Strong mid-level flow continues over the southern tier of the
   system. The belt of strongest winds will shift slightly eastward,
   impacting eastern UT, northern and eastern AZ, and western CO.
   Expect sustained southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph. A dry slot aloft
   will keep minimum relative humidity values critically low, between 8
   and 15 percent, across the Southern Rockies and Southwest. The 70
   percent Critical probability remains highlighted across southern and
   eastern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. 40 percent Critical
   probabilities encompass the remaining portions of southeast NV,
   northwest NM, and central WY where fuels are receptive. While
   confidence is not yet high enough to warrant a drawn area, a
   non-zero chance of mixed dry/wet thunderstorms over northern UT will
   be watched with future forecast guidance.

   ...Day 5/Monday...
   The region enters a temporary synoptic transition phase between the
   departing northern Rockies trough and the next approaching Pacific
   system. While the core of the mid-level jet weakens slightly and the
   surface pressure gradient slackens, broad and persistent
   southwesterly flow remains established over the Southwest and Great
   Basin. Deep mechanical mixing under clear skies will still generate
   localized breezy conditions with 15 to 25 mph gusts alongside
   persistent hot and dry air. Given the prolonged absence of moisture
   and highly susceptible fine fuels, an additional 70 percent Critical
   probability was introduced once again over portions of southern UT,
   northern AZ, and nearby far southeastern NV. 40 percent Critical
   probabilities encompass the remaining portions of southeast NV,
   western CO, and central WY where fuels are receptive.

   ...Day 6/Tuesday - Day 7/Wednesday...
   Medium-range global deterministic models and their respective
   ensemble members show strong consensus for a secondary, potentially
   more intense trough digging into the western US again by mid-week.
   Ahead of this feature, a renewed and amplified pressure gradient
   will trigger strong south/southwest surface winds. This will likely
   cause continued widespread critical fire weather conditions across a
   large swath of the Great Basin and Southwest. Thus, 70 percent
   Critical probability was introduced yet again over portions of
   southern UT and northern AZ where confidence is highest. The
   existing 40 percent Critical probability continues Tuesday and
   Wednesday in nearby areas including far eastern NV, western CO, and
   portions of central WY. Expect this risk area to be significantly
   expanded in spatial coverage and potentially extended later into the
   week as forecast guidance converges on the exact timing and track of
   this secondary upper level low.

   ..Stearns.. 06/04/2026