ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 311953

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...Northern Great Basin...
   A mid-level trough and associated stronger flow aloft enters central
   CA on Tuesday. Despite the delayed onset of stronger 40-50 kt
   mid-level winds until late afternoon/evening, a surface trough
   across the interior Northwest/northern Great Basin coupled with
   modest southwest 15-20 knot boundary layer flow will support
   southwest surface winds of 10-20 mph across northeastern CA, far
   northwestern NV and adjacent south-central OR Tuesday afternoon.
   These winds along with relative humidity between 10-15% will bring
   an Elevated fire weather to the northern Great Basin where fuels
   remain dry and receptive.

   ...Southeastern Idaho into Yellowstone Country...
   A mid-level short wave moving through Great Basin D1/Monday will
   shift northeastward into the northern High Plains by the end of
   D2/Tuesday. This feature will likely aid in some nocturnal,
   high-based convection across southeastern ID into northwestern WY
   and adjacent southern MT tonight into early Tuesday morning.
   Although the meteorological environment is supportive of dry
   thunderstorms including fast northeastward storm motions and
   presence of a dry-sub cloud layer, recent rainfall has mitigated
   fuel receptiveness limiting the overall fire weather threat.

   ..Williams.. 08/31/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An offshore upper low will evolve into an open wave and approach the
   northern California coast by Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday
   morning, the mid-level jet will pivot into the northern Great Basin.
   Similar to Monday, a surface trough will develop in the Northwest
   into much of the western Great Basin. Downslope winds will likely be
   stronger than on Monday, however. Winds could reach 15-20 mph with
   localized 20-25 mph possible. The late timing of the mid-level jet
   will tend to mitigate a greater fire weather threat. RH will again
   fall to 15-20%. Very dry fuels will continue to support an elevated
   fire weather threat.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 312134

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0434 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

   Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level ridge is likely to amplify over the central U.S.
   keeping troughing entrenched across the northwestern U.S. Hot, dry
   conditions well persist under the ridge over portions of the
   southern/central Plains. Farther west, a series of short waves
   rounding the base of the broader upper trough over the Northwest
   will introduce a period of cooler/wetter conditions to much of the
   Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through the end of the week.
   Several days of cooler temperatures, cloud cover and accumulating
   rainfall should reduce overall fire weather concerns.  A corridor of
   drier southwest flow southeast of the trough will present fire
   weather concerns where drier fuels exist across portions of
   WY/southern MT on Day 3/Wednesday, with lingering concerns in
   central WY Day 4/Thursday.

   ...Parts of Wyoming and southern Montana...
   A zone of stronger mid-level winds between the trough over the
   Northwest and ridging across the central U.S. will promote a fire
   weather concern to parts of central/eastern WY and adjacent southern
   MT on Day 3/Wednesday. Fuels remain receptive across eastern WY as
   evidenced from ERCs percentiles in the 80-90th percentile range.
   This persistent deep layer southwest flow in the presence of lee
   surface troughing in central/northern High Plains will support
   southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph amid RH as low as 10% in
   favorable downslope areas. Rainfall prior to onset of dry and breezy
   conditions is expected to be minimal allowing fuels to remain dry.
   40% Critical probabilities were extended northward into southern MT
   on Day 3/Wednesday with minimal changes on Day 4/Thursday. Longer
   term ensemble guidance suggests a continuation of this dry southwest
   flow pattern into Day 5/Friday, where 40% Critical probabilities
   have been introduced for parts of northeastern WY. 

   ...Great Basin...
   Similarly, robust southwest winds of 15-25 mph and low daytime RH
   are likely within a swath from southern NV into western UT on Day
   3-5/Wednesday-Friday. However, recent rainfall has muted fuel
   receptivity in this area, with no critical probabilities introduced
   for this outlook.

   ..Williams.. 08/31/2026