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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 151629

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

   Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

   No changes were made to the existing Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. See
   previous forecast discussion for details.

   ..Williams.. 09/15/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will enter the Pacific Northwest today, bringing
   slightly cooler temperatures and chances of light precipitation to
   the Cascades and adjacent terrain. Ahead of the trough, dry
   southwesterly flow will accelerate over the Great Basin and
   rejuvenate fire weather concerns where fuels are growing more
   receptive in central-eastern Nevada. High pressure will continue to
   expand over the Southeast and into the central U.S. as surface
   troughing promotes hot, dry, and windy conditions in northwest Texas
   and southwestern Oklahoma. 

   ...Southern Plains...
   A strong low-level jet supportive of 30-40 mph wind gusts early this
   morning (diminishing after 17z) may exacerbate established fires
   within the landscape. A cold front will slowly progress southward
   through western Kansas, eventually stalling in northwest Oklahoma
   this afternoon. Compressional heating ahead of the cold front will
   promote high temperatures of 100 degrees or greater across the
   region. Southerly sustained winds of 10-15 mph and RH values of
   15-25% will support another day of Elevated fire weather conditions
   within a drought stressed environment. 

   In addition, sufficient boundary layer mixing will support increased
   buoyancy along the front, generating scattered thunderstorms across
   northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon. Lightning-induced ignitions on
   the periphery of accumulating precipitation are a concern, alongside
   locally strong/erratic outflow winds (see the Day 1 Convective
   Outlook for details).

   ...Central-eastern Nevada...
   Dry and breezy conditions southeast of an upper-level trough across
   the Pacific Northwest will affect portions of the Great Basin. An
   Elevated fire weather threat exists this afternoon where southwest
   winds of 15-20 mph and RH as low as 10% will combine atop drying
   fuels.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150600

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper troughing will transition into a closed low over northern
   California and southern Oregon on Day 2/Wednesday, maintaining
   strong southwesterly flow across the Great Basin. Hot and dry
   conditions will continue across Texas and Oklahoma as high pressure
   expands into the Central U.S., though much lighter winds will limit
   broader fire weather concerns.

   ...Central-eastern Nevada...
   Deep-layer southwest flow coupled with a dry airmass and efficient
   daytime mixing will promote an Elevated fire weather threat for
   portions of central-eastern Nevada on Day 2/Wednesday. At peak
   heating, sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of
   15% or less will overlap drying fuels. RH may decline to less than
   10% in some valleys, but marginal fuel receptiveness will mute a
   more significant fire weather concern across the area.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/15/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142156

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level low will pivot southward from the Pacific Northwest
   and linger over northern CA for the middle of this week. Enhanced
   southwest flow southeast of the low amid dry conditions and slowly
   drying fuels, will promote a fire weather concern for portions of
   the Great Basin for Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. Thunderstorm
   potential associated with the low exists for parts of northern CA
   and southwestern OR on Day 3/Wednesday with a lightning threat
   moving into the northern Rockies by Thursday. However, marginal
   fuels should limit impact of lightning over the landscape through
   midweek. Farther east, well above normal temperatures under a
   persistent upper-ridge across the southeastern U.S. will promote
   even drier fuels across the region. However, lighter winds under the
   ridge and sufficient low-level moisture will limit broader fire
   weather concerns through the week.

   ...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
   ...Great Basin...
   The upper low expected to be over northern CA will usher in a
   corridor of 15-20 mph southwest winds over the Great Basin midweek.
   The deep-layer southwest flow coupled with a dry air mass and
   efficient daytime mixing should promote a fire weather threat
   for portions of east-central NV both Wednesday and Thursday.
   Although RH will likely fall below 10% in some valleys, marginal
   fuel receptiveness will mute a more significant fire weather concern
   across the area.

   ...Northern California, Southwest Oregon and Northern Rockies... 
   Thunderstorms associated with the upper low are expected Day
   3/Wednesday across northern CA and southwestern OR, with a
   thunderstorm threat extending into the northern Rockies by
   D4/Thursday. Fuels continue to be a limiting factor in introducing
   dry thunderstorm probabilities midweek with forecast ERC values only
   climbing towards the 70th percentile by the end of the week.

   ..Williams.. 09/14/2026
      




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