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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 091615
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
Satellite imagery and surface observations show areas of low level
clouds and fog adjacent to the Elevated area over the central High
Plains this morning. However, these clouds are already beginning to
clear as daytime heating continues across the region. As mixing
increases, clearing any remaining clouds and increasing surface
winds, all areas remain on track to meet thresholds later today.
Thus, only minor tweaks were made to the outlook areas to reflect
the latest trends in forecast guidance placement of the
aforementioned surface features. While RH conditions look to be more
marginal across the central High Plains outlook area, strong
westerly winds are still anticipated over this region this afternoon
with plenty of solar radiation and above normal temperatures.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will continue over the US today as an upper low
moves into the Southwest and a second upper trough crosses the
northern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains will
support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow
over regions with receptive fuels. Elevated to critical fire-weather
conditions are probable.
...Central High Plains...
Ahead of the northern upper trough, initial cyclogenesis should
continue as a trailing lee trough deepens over the High Plains.
Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase near the surface
low, and will peak during the late afternoon hours. Sustained winds
of 15-25 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% are expected.
Despite some recent precipitation, fine fuels are receptive after
multiple days of persistent downslope winds, supporting widespread
elevated and fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions
of eastern WY into western and central NE. Fire-weather conditions
will end overnight as a cold front associated with the departing
surface low moves southward, ushering in cooler air over the central
Plains.
...Southern High Plains...
Lee troughing south of the deepening surface low will support 15-25
mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles
this afternoon. Dry air advecting and downsloping into the region
today will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A
swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from
northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow
aloft. Despite precipitation in the last several days, continued
drying and downslope winds will support drying of fine fuels and
elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions into parts of
western OK.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 090718
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
The upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the
southern Plains D2/Tuesday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will
intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a
trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of
the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread
showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind
the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some
fire-weather potential.
...Southern High Plains...
As the upper low over the Southwest moves northeastward, strong flow
aloft and ascent will overspread parts of the southern High Plains.
A surface low will deepen with a surface trough/dryline supporting
dry downslope flow across the southern Rockies and High Plains on D2
(Tuesday afternoon). Gusty west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph are
expected along with afternoon humidity of 20-25%. This should
support elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of West TX,
the Rio Grande Valley and far eastern NM where fuels remain dry and
receptive.
The potential for precipitation and the location of the dryline
remain a significant source of uncertainty on the overall areal
extent and magnitude of the fire-weather threat D2/Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected both to the west and east of the
dryline. Cloud cover and increasing humidity may also limit the
potential for more intense fire-weather conditions despite
relatively strong surface winds. Changes will likely be needed to
the eastern extent of the Elevated area as details surrounding
dryline and precipitation placement become clearer on Day1/Monday.
While storms are likely over central NM, relatively modest moisture
profiles (PWATS generally under 0.6 inches) suggest a few of these
storms may not be overly productive for wetting rainfall. With steep
low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy, a few lightning strikes
are possible. These storms could be drier with the potential for
lightning to interact with receptive fuels. However, dry
thunderstorm coverage appears too low to introduce probabilities at
this time.
..Lyons.. 03/09/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082149
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
An upper low will merge with a mid-level trough and traverse the
Plains early this week, before ejecting into the Atlantic by the
weekend. Thereafter, a zonal upper-air pattern will overspread the
CONUS through the weekend. The initial passage of a surface trough
will result in high pressure and somewhat dry air overspreading the
CONUS east of the Rockies through the week. First, downslope flow
over the southern Rockies will result in dry/breezy conditions over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3 (Tuesday), where 40
percent critical probabilities have been introduced. Strong
northerly surface flow will then overspread the Plains on Day 4
(Wednesday) with the initial high pressure surge, though questions
of how low RH will get precludes Critical probabilities at this
time.
A mid-level impulse, with a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak, will
overspread the northern Plains on Day 5/Thursday, resulting in
strong surface low development. Widespread dry and windy conditions
are expected across the High Plains (delineated by 40 percent
Critical probabilities) due to gradient flow. 70 percent Critical
probabilities have been added across western Nebraska and immediate
surrounding areas, where medium-range guidance consensus and
consistency shows Critically dry/windy conditions overlapping dry
fuels. Regionally dry and breezy conditions should continue across
portions of the central High Plains on Friday and perhaps into the
weekend, as strong upper flow continues to overspread the region.
..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026
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