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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071530
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Early-morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing
east through the Midwest and southeast across the Plains. This
feature is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through today
as cool temperatures and high pressure follow in its wake. A
combination of cool temperatures, recent rainfall, and widespread
rain chances today from the OH Valley into the lower MS Valley will
limit fire weather concerns for most locations east of the Rockies,
though localized fire weather potential is noted across parts of the
northern High Plains.
...Northern High Plains...
A clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies will support
strengthening west/northwest gradient winds through the late
afternoon. Wind speeds upwards of 15-25 mph are expected and may
coincide with RH reductions into the 15-25% range within the
downslope flow regime across central to eastern WY. Fire weather
concerns will most likely be focused across far east-central WY into
adjacent portions of NE and SD where ERC values are near seasonal
highs and limited precipitation has fallen over the past 72 hours
per MRMS estimates.
...Southern California Coast...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper low over the
lower CO River Valley. This feature will continue to settle
southward into northwest Mexico as northeasterly mid-level winds
strengthen over southern CA. A combination of strong mid to
upper-level offshore flow coupled with a moderate offshore pressure
gradient (LAX-DAG gradient forecast to be around -5 mb) will support
east/northeast winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph at times)
today through early Sunday morning. While confidence in these winds
is fairly high due to strong agreement among deterministic and
ensemble solutions, latest fuels analyses suggest that fuels remain
unsupportive of fire spread.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 071939
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...Southern High Plains...
Critical highlights have been added to portions of northeastern New
Mexico, into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles vicinity.
Here, downslope flow will be strongest, with the latest guidance
consensus depicting 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds
overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the mid- to late-afternoon
time frame. Otherwise, the previous forecast in this area remains on
track.
...Northern High Plains...
The latest guidance consensus depicts surface trough intensification
across the northern Plains around afternoon peak heating, with 15-25
mph sustained westerly surface winds appearing more likely. These
winds will coincide with 20-25 percent RH for several hours tomorrow
afternoon, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights given
fuels that are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread.
..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Regional fire weather concerns are expected for Sunday across parts
of the southern High Plains and potentially the northern High
Plains. Zonal flow across the Rockies is expected to strengthen
through the weekend as an upper low meanders over the lower CO River
Valley and weak upper disturbances migrate along the U.S./Canadian
border. This flow regime should promote lee troughing along the high
Plains with a corresponding uptick in dry westerly downslope flow
off the higher terrain.
...Southern High Plains...
Latest guidance hints that surface pressure falls will be regionally
most pronounced across southeast CO into southwest KS and the OK
Panhandle region. This will support 15-20 mph southwest winds across
northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles. Dry conditions will already
be in place in the wake of Friday's frontal passage, so confidence
is reasonably high in observing RH reductions into the teens to low
20s. Active fires across the area over the past three days indicate
that fuels are receptive amid ongoing drought conditions.
...Northern High Plains...
As with D1/Saturday, a progressive shortwave trough migrating along
the International border will support some increase west/northwest
winds along the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. However, with
surface pressure falls more focused across northeast MT, confidence
in sustained 15-20 mph winds is somewhat lower across eastern WY and
SD. Regardless, localized elevated fire weather conditions are
possible as RH values fall to near 20% across a region with
receptive fuels.
...Southern California Coast...
An offshore wind event will likely be ongoing at the start of the
forecast period and is expected to peak Sunday morning between 14-18
UTC before gradually abating later in the day. Sustained winds
between 20-25 mph are expected with gusts as high as 45 mph possible
within the lee of the coastal terrain. Despite fairly high
confidence in critical wind speeds, recent fuel analyses show that
fuels are currently not receptive to fire spread.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 072159
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
A mid-level cutoff low and upper trough will merge while ejecting
into the Plains, tracking toward the East Coast through the middle
of next week. Surface low development is expected across the central
U.S. with the passage of the merging upper troughs early next week.
This upper air pattern will support a few instances of regional dry
downslope flow, especially across portions of the central and
southern High Plains on Day 3 (Monday), where 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced. Dry downslope flow may continue
across the southern High Plains on Day 4 (Tuesday), but possible
preceding rainfall and marginal RH precludes Critical probabilities
this outlook.
By the middle of next week into next weekend, a zonal upper flow
pattern will become established over the central U.S. with the
departure of the upper trough. A pronounced mid-level impulse and
accompanying rapidly eastward progressing surface low will support
widespread dry and windy conditions across much of the High Plains
on Day 6 (Thursday) given both strong gradient and downslope induced
surface flow. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced across
portions of the central and southern High Plains, where fuels are
most receptive to wildfire spread and are forecast to receive
minimal rainfall into next week.
..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026
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