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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 191600
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Across the southern
Plains, morning surface observations depict widespread values of
less than 20 percent RH owing to poor overnight humidity recoveries.
Decreasing high clouds early this afternoon will promote deeper
mixing with RH dropping to 5-15 percent and strong gusts of up to 35
mph mixing down to the surface, maintaining Critical fire weather
concerns. Across the Piedmont/Southeast, a shield of high clouds
will gradually become more transparent with sporadic areas of
partially sunny skies this afternoon. 12z soundings portray a very
dry airmass up to 4-6 km, with 30-45 kt winds just above the
surface. Areas that see breaks in the clouds will likely experience
deeper mixing, contributing to stronger wind gusts upwards of 25-30
mph in localized areas. Northwesterly winds are expected to decrease
this evening, however, dry air will persist overnight across much of
the Southeast. This may lead to poor overnight humidity recoveries,
further exacerbating the fire environment into Day 2/Monday. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon across portions of the southern and central High Plains as
well as across parts of the Southeast. Both fire weather regimes
will be influenced by building surface high pressure in the wake of
a cold front pushing into the northern Gulf and southeast Atlantic
coast.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Building surface high pressure is noted across the southern Plains
with very dry conditions (dewpoints in the teens to single digits)
observed across western TX into western KS. Southwest winds are
forecast to strengthen to 15-25 mph on the western periphery of the
surface high this afternoon as a dry return flow regime becomes
established. Mostly sunny skies coupled with very low boundary-layer
moisture will support deep mixing and RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. Critical fire weather conditions remain likely
across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS where gusts up to 30
mph appear likely. Given recent fire activity across northwest TX,
the fuel environment will support the fire weather threat.
...Southeast States...
06 UTC surface observations depict a cold front pushing eastward
across the Southeast. Although scattered showers accompany this
front, latest forecast depicts low probability for wetting rainfall
across northern FL into central GA and SC, which will likely be
insufficient to mitigate ERC values well above the 95th percentile.
In the wake of the cold front, west/northwest winds will prevail
across much of the region. A combination of dry air advection and
downslope flow off the southern Appalachians will contribute to
widespread 15-25% RH minimums. Elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions should become fairly widespread as winds increase
into the 15-20 mph with localized gusts upwards of 25-30 mph.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 191855
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Only minor changes were made to expand and confine the Elevated fire
weather highlights based on recent high resolution guidance. Across
the Piedmont, partly cloudy skies may increase RH values and inhibit
deeper mixing across some parts of the region on Monday afternoon.
However, poor overnight humidity recoveries and westerly winds of
10-15 mph in terrain influenced areas will continue to support an
Elevated fire weather threat. In the Southeast, northeasterly winds
of up to 15 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) are expected where
exceptionally dry fuels exist. Despite winds decreasing slightly
throughout the day, areas where very low RH of 15-20 percent and
gustier winds overlap may promote locally critical fire weather
conditions. Farther west, portions of eastern WY may experience
localized critical fire weather conditions where sporadic gusts of
up to 35 mph are possible in the lee of the Laramie Mountains.
However, lack of mid-level support and the narrow duration of strong
winds overlapping low RH precludes the introduction of critical
highlights at this time.
Increasing mid-level moisture with afternoon heating and resultant
instability may support isolated thunderstorms across south-central
NM into eastern AZ. PWATs of 0.5-0.75" with a prominent dry
sub-cloud layer should limit precipitation, allowing for the threat
of dry thunderstorms to evolve. While widespread ERCs are below the
90th percentile in this region, recent fire activity depicts
receptivity where pockets of drier fuels exist.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts
of the High Plains and the Southeast on Monday. Upper-level ridging
will gradually shift east from the Rockies into the Plains through
the day. While surface high pressure shifts east over the Southeast
states, a lee trough will deepen along the northern High Plains,
resulting in areas of breezy conditions over dry fuels.
...High Plains...
A deepening lee trough along the northern High Plains will support
strengthening west/southwest winds to the west of the trough axis
across eastern WY into western NE. Further south, a tightening
pressure gradient in proximity to a lingering surface high over
eastern TX will promote strengthening winds across the OK/TX
Panhandle region. Within both regimes, ensemble guidance suggests
sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely. RH minimums in the
teens are likely across WY into NE where downslope wind will depress
moisture content within an antecedent dry air mass. Further south,
the northern fringe of returning moisture will begin nosing into
western TX. This may limit RH reductions to some degree, but RH
minimums will likely fall into at least the low 20s given model
guidance tendency to display a moist bias at the surface within the
early stages of moisture return.
...Southeast...
A dry air mass will reside across much of the Southeast where fuels
will likely remain dry owing to limited rainfall forecast over the
next 24-48 hours for much of the region. In general, gradient winds
will weaken through the day as surface high pressure builds across
the region. However, areas of breezy conditions will likely persist
in the lee of the southern Appalachians and along the northeastern
Gulf coast. Sustained winds near 15 mph within a dry air mass (RH
minimums in the teens to twenties) will likely support another day
of elevated fire weather conditions.
...New Mexico to eastern Arizona...
Low to mid-level moisture return is anticipated across southern TX
and into central NM through Monday afternoon. Although forcing for
ascent will be modest under an upper-level ridge, a combination of
localized orographic ascent and deeply mixed boundary-layers with
minimal inhibition will support isolated thunderstorm development.
Storm motions around 10 knots will likely support pockets of wetting
precipitation, but PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.7 inches will likely
support dry lightning strikes outside of the heavier precipitation
cores. With regional ERCs near the 75th to 80th percentile,
lightning ignitions appear possible.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 182156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper-level trough across the northeastern U.S. on Day
3/Monday will move offshore into the Atlantic by Day 4/Tuesday,
while ridging builds over central CONUS. Offshore flow trajectories
under the deeper northwest flow from the departing upper trough will
support a continued fire weather threat across portions of the Mid
Atlantic, Southeast and FL on Day 3/Monday. Farther west, an
upper-level trough will impinge upon the West Coast on Day
4/Tuesday. Fire weather concerns are expected to reemerge across
portions of the Southwest and central/southern Plains as the
upper-level trough and associated stronger mid-level flow progress
eastward midweek, with surface lee troughing evolving across the
northern and central Plains on Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday.
...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday...
...Central and Southern Plains...
Modest westerly flow aloft along with a surface trough across the
northern Plains will promote downslope enhanced drying and breezy
west winds across eastern WY into the NE Panhandle and southwestern
SD on Day 3/Monday. Farther south, increasing southerly winds south
of the surface trough amid dry boundary layer conditions should
result in a fire weather concern from the northern TX Panhandle
northeastward into much of southwestern KS. 40% critical
probabilities for both regions remain largely intact.
...Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Florida...
A fire weather threat will continue for portions of the Mid Atlantic
and Southeast on Day 3/Monday as dry, post-frontal flow and robust
northwesterly flow aloft impacts the region. Dry conditions and a
steady northeast wind across FL is expected on Day 4/Tuesday as
surface high pressure settles into the Deep South.
...Southwest...
A mid-level perturbation and increasing mid/upper moisture from the
Pacific should bring some high-based afternoon convection to
portions of eastern AZ into central NM on Day 3/Monday. Dry and warm
conditions will further dry fuels with some ignitions possible from
isolated dry thunderstorm activity. Dry and breezy conditions return
mid week as the next robust upper trough moves into the
Intermountain West, with potential impact on holdover ignitions. A
10% dry thunderstorm probability was introduced to highlight this
threat.
...Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday...
A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the
approaching upper-level trough and associated increased southwest
flow aloft will bring a more expansive fire weather threat to much
of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest for the middle of
next week where fuels remain receptive. Introduced a 70% critical
probability for southeastern CO, northeastern NM, southwestern KS
and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles for Day 5/Wednesday, where a
mid-level jet aligns with tightening surface pressure gradients
associated with the deepening lee trough. Downslope enhanced drying
and stronger west/southwest winds continue across much of the
Southwest and Southern Plains on Day 6/Thursday as the mid-level
trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40% critical probabilities were
maintained for the Southwest and Southern Plains.
..Williams.. 04/18/2026
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