ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 122002

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR
   NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

   ...Northern Montana...
   A robust upper-level short wave trough and associated increased
   southwest flow aloft will enter the Pacific Northwest and Northern
   Rockies Wednesday, bringing widespread fire weather concerns to much
   of the Intermountain West. A deepening surface trough across the
   southern Canadian Prairies into central MT will usher in stronger
   southerly to southeasterly winds of 15-25 mph ahead of the trough.
   These winds, along with RH as low as 20-30% amid dry fuels will
   promote heightened fire weather threat in portions of the central
   and northern Plains. Alignment of RH of 20% or below and winds of
   around 25 mph is most likely across northeastern MT and far western
   ND where fuels are more receptive. 

   Increasing mid-level moisture ahead of the upper trough and arrival
   of a Pacific cold front should promote isolated to scattered showers
   and initially high-based thunderstorms across much of northwestern
   MT Wednesday. Latest forecast guidance suggests higher rain amounts
   (greater than 0.10") across portions of north central MT. Thus,
   isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were trimmed across
   north-central MT and shifted slightly southeastward, where fast
   northeastward storm motions of 35-45 mph and less thunderstorm
   coverage will limit potential for wetting rains.

   ...Southwest, Upper Snake River Plain and Colorado River Basin...
   An expansive fire weather threat remains across much of the
   Intermountain West as the upper-level trough and attendant
   increasing southwest winds aloft shifts into the Pacific North
   west. Dry and breezy southwesterly flow of 15-25 mph (localized 30
   mph in the eastern Great Basin) and RH of 10-15% will align with
   drying fuels to promote elevated fire weather conditions across
   portions of the Great Basin, CO River Basin into central WY.
   Forecast thermodynamic profiles (with a prominent dry boundary
   layer) will support isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms
   over higher terrain of western NM, far eastern AZ, central UT
   mountain chain into southwest WY.

   ..Williams.. 05/12/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper level low will move onshore the Pacific Northwest and
   transform into an open trough as it moves farther inland. Wedged
   between western U.S. troughing and an amplifying longwave trough
   over the eastern U.S., upper ridging will slide over the Rocky
   Mountain region. Associated with the substantial mid-upper level
   pattern, a rapidly evolving lee-side low in the southern Canadian
   Prairies and deepening lee surface troughing over the Great Basin
   and High Plains will present a multifaceted fire weather setup
   across portions of the Intermountain West. 

   ...Northern Montana...
   In the southern Canadian Prairies, a rapidly evolving lee low will
   promote a dry return flow pattern across the northern High Plains. A
   Critical fire weather risk was introduced for northeastern MT and
   far northwestern ND where sustained southeasterly winds of 20-25 mph
   and 15-20 percent RH will overlap an exceptionally dry fuelscape.
   Widespread south-southeasterly winds of 15-20 mph amid 20-25 percent
   RH will promote elevated fire weather concerns across much of
   central-eastern MT. Fast moving, high based showers and
   thunderstorms with limited precipitation are expected across central
   and northern MT as broader ascent materializes ahead of an incoming
   trough. Resultant instability and a dry boundary layer could
   encourage a few lightning ignitions where receptive fuels exist. An
   IsoDryT area was introduced to account for this threat. 

   ...Portions of the Southwest into the Snake River Plain and Colorado
   River Basin...
   As the sharp upper trough and associated mid-level jet shifts over
   ID into western MT, deepening surface troughing across the northern
   Great Basin and stronger southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will
   bring fire weather concerns to much of the Intermountain West.
   Southwest winds of 15-25 mph amid very low RH and drying fuels under
   successive days of abnormally high temperatures will support an
   Elevated fire weather threat across the region. Daytime instability
   and increasing mid-level moisture will promote high based convection
   along the higher terrain of the Four Corners through central WY into
   the Wyoming Basin. Sporadic lightning ignitions are possible where
   drier fuels exist, promoting an IsoDryT area.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122209

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough ejects into the northern Plains on Day
   3/Thursday while a surface low shifts into Manitoba. At the surface,
   a strong, dry cold front extending south of the low sweeps into the
   Upper Midwest bringing widespread fire weather concerns to portions
   of the northern Plains and central High plains. Breezy west winds
   and dry conditions should linger over portions of the northern
   Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as the surface low
   translates eastward into Ontario. A large scale upper trough enters
   the western U.S. by the end of the weekend bringing a fire weather
   threat, including breezy southwest winds and very dry conditions, to
   portions of the Great Basin and Four Corners regions on Day
   5/Saturday, shifting into the Southwest by Day 6/Sunday.

   ...Day 3/Thursday...
   ...Northern Plains...
   Strong, deep layer westerly winds behind a powerful cold front under
   a similarly robust mid-level jet will bring a fire weather threat to
   much of Northern Plains on Day 3/Thursday. West winds of 35-45 mph
   are possible with higher gusts across the Plains of MT and terrain
   favored areas in central and eastern WY. A mixed fuels picture
   across the region, including green up across southeastern MT and ND,
   could somewhat mitigate the fire environment precluding introduction
   of 70% critical probabilities within the expanded 40% area.

   ...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
   Surface lee troughing over the TX Panhandle under modest westerly 
   flow aloft will promote enhanced southwesterly winds from southern
   NM into the OK/TX Panhandles Day 3/Thursday. A subtle embedded short
   wave feature shifting into Southern Plains could aid in high-based
   thunderstorm development across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles,
   with deeper boundary layer moisture shunted to the east. A 10% dry
   thunderstorm probability was introduced.

   ...Day 4/Friday - Northern Plains...
   Dry, post-frontal westerly flow will continue to bring fire weather
   concerns to portions of the Northern Plains on Day 4/Friday. Fuels
   remain largely receptive although notable green up in some areas may
   suppress wildfire spread potential.

   Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday - Great Basin, Four Corners and Southwest...

   A larger scale trough impinges upon the western CONUS by the
   weekend, reintroducing dry conditions and breezy southwest winds
   into the Great Basin and Four Corners regions by Day 5/Saturday. As
   the trough migrates eastward, the fire weather threat shifts into
   the Southwest on Day 6/Sunday, where several days of drying could
   support a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread.

   ..Williams.. 05/12/2026