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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 151602
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
The forecast remains on track across much of the CONUS with a
widespread and multi-faceted threat in place across portions of the
plains. The latest forecast guidance this morning shows that
development of convection will expand slightly farther north. As
such, the Isolated Dry Thunder area was extended north across much
of southeast CO. Additionally, the Scattered Dry Thunder area was
also extended to the slightly northward in agreement with the latest
model consensus. While storm motions are slightly slower across this
area (being closer to the center of the mid-level low), precipitable
water values will still struggle to exceed 3/4 of an inch amid
high-based convection.
Morning satellite imagery and surface observations show dry (RHs in
the single digits to teens) and windy (southwest near 10-20 mph)
conditions are already underway over the TX Panhandle and
surrounding areas. As was previously mentioned, convection could
promote localized areas of very strong winds associated with
convection, particularly over portions of the TX Panhandle after
6pm. Similarly, strong westerly surface winds continue to impact
much of the central High and northern Plains this morning before RHs
drop below 20 percent this afternoon in the drawn area.
..Stearns.. 05/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mainly zonal mid-level flow, with multiple embedded impulses, will
prevail over the western and northern CONUS as a low-amplitude
mid-level trough progresses over the southern Plains today. A
surface low will develop over the central Plains and encourage
low-level moisture return east of the I-35 corridor. Meanwhile, dry
downslope flow will usher in behind the surface low and overspread
the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft will overspread
this dry airmass, encouraging high-based dry thunderstorm
development atop receptive fuels, supporting lightning-induced
ignitions over the southern High Plains. Lastly, dry westerly
gradient-induced surface winds are expected across the northern
Plains, driven by a deepening surface low over western Manitoba.
Overall, an active day with relatively widespread wildfire spread
conditions are expected over portions of the Plains states today.
...Southern High Plains...
To the west of a diffuse dryline, a deep and dry boundary layer will
manifest by afternoon peak heating as downslope flow also
intensifies through the day. Widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly
surface winds are expected during the afternoon, overlapping 10-15
percent RH from southern New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma
border, warranting Elevated highlights given receptive fuels.
Critical highlights are also in place from southeast New Mexico into
the Texas Rolling Plains, where guidance consensus shows 25+ mph
sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping RH below 15
percent on a widespread basis for several hours during the
afternoon.
Across the southern High Plains, the approach of a low-amplitude
mid-level impulse will result in seasonably cold mid-level
temperatures overspreading a boundary layer extending up to 500 mb,
yielding classic inverted-v soundings beneath thin CAPE (up to 500
J/kg in some forecast soundings). At least isolated thunderstorm
development is expected along the New Mexico/Texas Panhandle border
initially by mid afternoon. Strong flow aloft will encourage rapid
eastward advancement of these storms, accompanied by erratic wind
gusts. Isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible with the
onset of storm development.
However, a greater concern exists for lightning-induced ignitions as
storms progress farther to the east into the Oklahoma Panhandle
toward the Texas Rolling Plains. Here, low-level moisture (while
overall scant for typical deep-moist convection) will gradually
deepen, supporting increased thunderstorm coverage and
intensification. As these storms intensify and produce erratic to
perhaps severe (58+ mph) wind gusts, they will also overspread drier
fuels that have experienced greater than average fuel loading. This
volatile scenario may support several lightning induced ignitions,
followed by potential rapid spread from both the larger scale
gradient winds/gusts, as well as from erratic gusts by strong to
severe thunderstorms, perhaps accompanied by scant precipitation,
warranting the introduction of Scattered dry thunderstorm
highlights.
...Portions of the Northern Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, the combination of boundary layer mixing
and gradient flow will promote widespread sustained westerly winds
in the 15-25 mph range across portions of the northern Plains. RH
will drop below 20 percent in some spots, warranting broad Elevated
highlights. Critical highlights are in place where guidance
consensus shows the best overlap of 15-20 percent RH and 20-25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds during the afternoon, as well as
where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread.
...Wyoming and immediate surrounding areas...
Dry downslope flow across portions of the northern Rockies will
support surface winds reaching the 15-20 mph range during the
afternoon, where RH should dip to 15 percent over most locales.
Elevated highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry
fuels. At least some wildfire spread potential exists wherever the
aforementioned meteorological surface conditions can overlap
receptive fuel beds.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150701
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Rockies,
resulting in a deepening surface low across the central Plains.
Similar to Day 1, another round of dry downslope flow is expected
behind a sharpening dryline across the southern High Plains. The
latest guidance consensus depicts widespread 20-25 mph sustained
southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across much of the
lower Colorado River Basin into the southern High Plains, hence the
introduction of broad Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have
been introduced across southeastern New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle, where guidance consensus shows the aforementioned
meteorological surface conditions overspreading loaded fuels that
are most receptive to wildfire spread. Initial discrete thunderstorm
development across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles may initially
be high based as storms develop over a mixed boundary layer
immediately along the dryline. Given dry fuel beds,
lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible where storms first
develop, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm
highlights.
..Squitieri.. 05/15/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142203
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
Nearly zonal flow will be in place across much of the eastern US on
Day 3/Saturday. Meanwhile, a trough will move over the Intermountain
West. By Day 5/Monday, this trough will center over the central
Rockies, before ejecting to the north and east across the central
Plains. This will present multiple consecutive days of likely
Critical fire weather over portions of the Southwest and southern
Plains. The pattern then flattens as next week progresses, leading
to less certainty of potential fire weather concerns given the
colder air across much of the CONUS in the wake of the trough.
...Southwest/Southern Plains/Southern Great Basin...
On Day 3/Saturday through Day 5/Monday, the aforementioned
significant middle-level trough will promote multiple consecutive
days of Elevated to Critical fire weather across much of the
Southwest and adjacent southern Plains and southern Great Basin.
Warm and dry antecedent conditions amid the above normal
temperatures associated with the recent ridging will precondition
the area for potential ignitions. Southwest to westerly winds
sustained at 20-30 mph will combine with single digit to low teen
RHs for several hours. Current forecast guidance suggests that
overnight RHs will struggle to rise above 30% over much of the
region, suggesting burn periods well into the nighttime hours.
On Day 6/Tuesday, as the trough begins to recede to the north,
stronger winds aloft will linger over New Mexico and combine with
dry surface conditions to promote some threat of critical weather
conditions over the region for yet another day.
...California...
On Day 4/Sunday, northwest flow on the back side of the trough as it
digs over the Great Basin will lead to strong (20 mph sustained)
northerly winds combined with afternoon RHs in the teens over the CA
Central Valley. Thus, given the anticipated dry fine fuels in place
amid the warm and dry antecedent conditions, the 40% probs were
maintained to account for the potential fire weather threat.
..Stearns.. 05/14/2026
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