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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 090614
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a broad swath
of the western CONUS for today, stretching from northern California
into the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Additionally,
isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Great
Basin and into the southern High Plains.
...California into the Great Basin and Wyoming...
Early morning water-vapor imagery continues to depict a broad upper
ridge over the Southwest. This feature is expected to linger over
the region for the next several days, and will act to modulate any
low-level mass response associated with weak perturbations embedded
within northern stream of the ridge axis. Consequently, surface
winds today will mainly be driven by orographic influences through
terrain-favored locations. Most high-res guidance depicts sustained
winds generally around 15 mph for most locations from northern CA
into the northern Great Basin and portions of WY. However, deep
mixing within a very dry environment will facilitate downward
transport of stronger flow near the top of the boundary layer, which
should manifest as 15-25 mph gusts at the surface. Given the
antecedent dry air mass (which should yield afternoon RH minimums in
the teens to single digits) and very limited rainfall over the past
1-2 weeks, areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear likely.
Sustained elevated conditions appear most likely across northwest NV
and eastern WY where more focused corridors of downslope flow will
promote sustained 15-20 mph winds.
Further west into central CA, an onshore flow regime should promote
downslope off the coastal terrain and into the Central Valley.
Sustained winds near 15 mph coupled with 15-20% RH minimums should
support areas of elevated fire weather conditions, especially in
close proximity to terrain features.
...Southern High Plains...
Hot and dry conditions will prevail across the Southern Plains this
afternoon where high temperatures will likely exceed 100 F. Weak lee
troughing juxtaposed with high pressure over the mid/lower MS Valley
will yield a swath of 15-20 mph gradient winds from the TX Panhandle
into southwest KS. The combination of hot/dry conditions and breezy
winds will support a swath of elevated fire weather conditions.
While the primary fire weather concern will be focused across the
OK/TX Panhandles, fire weather conditions may extend well into
central KS; however, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours should
modulate fuel status to some degree with east/northeastward extent.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
00 UTC RAOBs from the Southwest/Great Basin sampled very steep
mid-level lapse rates with sufficient mid-level monsoonal moisture
for 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE. Additionally, soundings from the Great
Basin sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions, which is reflected
in surface observations by poor overnight RH recoveries. MRMS QPE
and lightning activity over the past 24 hours suggests dry
thunderstorms occurred across portions of the Great Basin/Four
Corners yesterday afternoon, and similar thermodynamic conditions
should prevail today. However, the dry thunderstorm risk will be
displaced further north compared to yesterday due to continued
northward advection of monsoonal moisture on the western edge of the
ridge. Regardless, the potential for dry lightning over dry fuels
will pose a risk for additional lightning ignitions this
afternoon/evening.
..Moore.. 08/09/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 090643
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
Another day of elevated fire weather conditions is expected across
the northern Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies as well
as portions of the southern High Plains. Isolated dry thunderstorms
will also pose a fire weather concern for parts of the Great Basin.
...Northern Great Basin...
As with today, a persistent upper-level ridge will modulate any
low-level mass response across the western CONUS, resulting in weak
gradient winds for most locations Monday afternoon. However, deep
mixing and localized orographic enhancements will promote areas of
15-20 mph winds (gusting to 20-25 mph at times). Little moisture
recovery is expected across the central to northern Great Basin,
which will promote another day of single digit to low teen RH
minimums by mid-afternoon. Widespread areas of elevated fire weather
conditions are expected, but hot, dry, and windy conditions may be
more prolonged/widespread in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada
in northwest/western NV, through the Snake River Valley, and across
east-central WY in proximity to a weak surface low.
...CA Central Valley...
An onshore flow regime is expected to persist into Monday. Downslope
westerly flow off the coastal terrain should promote 15-20 mph winds
into western portions of the Central Valley. Dry conditions (RH
values in the teens to low 20s) coupled with preceding days of
dry/windy conditions should support some fire weather concern.
...Southern High Plains...
A modest deepening of the lee trough along the central to northern
High Plains will maintain modest pressure gradient winds across the
southern and central Plains on Monday. Another day of afternoon high
temperatures in the 100s will promote very dry conditions across
western OK into the Panhandles and southwest KS. A combination of
15-20 mph gradient winds (gusting to 20-25 mph) and RH minimums in
the teens should support a swath of elevated fire weather
conditions.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
A plume of monsoonal moisture will continue to shift northward over
the next 24-48 hours. Weak ascent - largely driven by orographic
lift - will promote isolated thunderstorms across much of the Great
Basin and Southwest/Four Corners. However, drier conditions on the
northern fringe of the returning moisture (characterized by PWAT
values of 0.45 to 0.75 inches), coupled with antecedent dry
low-level conditions, should support favorable thermodynamic
profiles for dry thunderstorms. With dry fuels already in place
across much of the region, lightning ignitions will be possible.
..Moore.. 08/09/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082241
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
Following the flattening of the upper ridge across the northwestern
CONUS, high pressure over the Four Corners will gradually translate
eastward early next week. Residual dry and breezy conditions will
persist across portions of the Great Basin and Wyoming plains
through Day 4/Tuesday, in addition to the southern Plains as high
pressure centers atop the region midweek. Along the northern fringe
of monsoonal moisture where very dry fuels exist, daily chances for
dry thunderstorms will continue as deeper moisture is shunted to the
Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. Mid to late week,
ensembles indicate a pattern shift with a trough forming off the
West Coast and a shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest,
indicating thunderstorm potential as a result of the overall upper
pattern.
...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday...
...Intermountain West and California Central Valley...
High based convection is likely to evolve on Day 3/Monday on the
northern periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture. PWATs ranging from
0.6-0.8" and daytime instability will likely lead to isolated
high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin, portions
of the Colorado Plateau, and eastern Idaho. 10% probabilities have
been maintained on Day 3/Monday, and may be needed for Day 4/Tuesday
depending on precipitation efficiency early in the forecast period.
Stronger upper-level flow will continue across the flattened ridge,
sustaining a pattern of dry and breezy conditions atop exceptionally
dry fuels. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day
3/Monday and expanded on Day 4/Tuesday across the northern Great
Basin and Wyoming plains to account for a broader, prolonged fire
weather threat. These conditions could also encourage any
lightning-induced holdovers to emerge, resulting from preceding days
of forecast dry thunderstorms.
40% Critical highlights have been expanded into portions of the
California Central Valley and adjacent interior Coast Ranges on Day
3/Monday. Despite weak flow aloft, a tightened surface pressure
gradient will induce localized areas of stronger onshore flow where
increasingly receptive fuels exist.
...Southern High Plains...
Surface low pressure will amplify east of the Colorado Rockies
tightening a surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains,
promoting breezy conditions through Day 4/Tuesday. Hot daytime
temperatures approaching 100+ degrees F amid 10-15% RH values and
sustained southerly surface winds of 15 mph or greater support the
introduction of 40% Critical probabilities. A mixed fuelscape of
live fuels and areas of grass curing (as seen by a 30-day NDVI
comparison) and fuels rebounding from spotty recent rainfall yield a
somewhat complicated environment; however, several preceding days of
elevated fire weather conditions should lead to increasingly more
receptive fuels.
...Days 5-8...
With cluster analysis and long-range guidance indicating a
significant pattern change across the western CONUS, uncertainty
remains in both the timing and location of the developing eastern
Pacific trough and shortwave troughing entering the Northwest. This
pattern could produce opportunities for much needed moisture across
these regions, or the threat of thunderstorms over an exceptionally
dry fuelscape. Low predictability precludes probabilities at this
time, but may be needed in future outlook cycles as confidence
increases.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/08/2026
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