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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 101638
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
Northern portions of the Isolated Dry Thunder area were nudged
eastward and trimmed slightly in agreement with the latest
observations and forecast guidance showing less convective
initiation along northwest portions of the previous Day 1/Tuesday
Outlook. Expansion of the Isolated Dry Thunder area was considered
farther to the southwest into the Trans Pecos as well, but showery
precipitation appeared favored over extreme southwest Texas and very
little if any storm coverage near the Big Bend area.
Similarly, the Elevated area was also expanded slightly to the east
to account for the anticipated surge of the dryline through much of
the Texas Panhandle during peak heating this afternoon. Portions of
the central Texas Panhandle will see stronger and drier southwest
winds leading to some locally critical conditions. However,
conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant a
critical area being drawn. Portions of the Front Range will see
locally Elevated fire weather conditions as well but the areal
extent remains limited. A strong cold front will push through the
central and into the southern High Plains late tonight with strong
winds but higher RHs and cooler temperatures.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the
southern Plains as a second upper trough moves over the northern
Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, a lee cyclone will
intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a
trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of
the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread
showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind
the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some
fire-weather potential. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible
where lightning may interact with dry fuels over the southern High
Plains.
...Southern High Plains...
As the upper low ejects eastward, the initial surface cyclone will
move away to the northeast along the front. A secondary lee low will
deepen over KS/OK at the apex of the dryline. This, along with
strong flow aloft, will support gusty southwest winds across much of
the southern High Plains. While humidity is unlikely to be overly
low owing to cloud cover and mid-level moisture from the cold core
upper low over NM, pockets of strong heating and downslope flow west
of the dryline will support 20-30% RH values amid westerly wind of
20-30 mph. Elevated and brief critical fire-weather conditions are
likely from the Rio Grande Valley northward across much of West TX
and far eastern NM despite the modest RH minimums. Confidence in
brief critical conditions is highest across the TX Big Bend region
and the southern TX Panhandle where locally higher winds and lower
RH may briefly overlap this afternoon.
Thunderstorm development is probable this afternoon across much of
the southern Plains along the dryline and beneath the upper low over
parts of central NM. Precipitable water values, indicative of
moisture above a dry sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an
inch and are not expected to support efficient rainfall accumulation
given storm motions of 30-40 knots. While confidence in storms is
relatively high, the exact coverage, and dryline position remain
uncertain. The IsoDryT area was expanded slightly to the
west/southwest to account for additional convection on the periphery
of the upper low. Additional changes are likely in the day1 update
as dryline placement and thunderstorm coverage/location details
become clearer.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 100716
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow over the CONUS will gradually recombine as the
southern-stream trough merges with the northern trough over the
Midwest and Appalachians D2/Wed. Ridging will intensify over the
West as a cold front will sweep southeastward with a much cooler air
mass and gusty northerly winds likely behind it. Some fire-weather
potential remains possible over the southern and central Plains
where drier and windy conditions are possible. However, forecast
uncertainty is high.
...Central and southern High Plains...
A modestly dry post-frontal air mass is likely to develop across the
High Plains D2/Wednesday afternoon. While RH values will not be
overly low (generally above 30%) gusty northerly winds of 20-30 mph
and higher gusts are expected from southern NE into western KS and
TX/OK. This may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions,
especially across parts of the southern Plains.
Generally the overlap of gusty winds and RH below criteria appears
minimal with humidity quickly increasing through the day as colder
air filters south. Additionally, the potential for precipitation
from the prior day casts significant uncertainty on the potential
for sustained elevated conditions. However, the strengthen of the
northerly winds and some drying appears conducive to a few hours of
elevated fire-weather potential in the southern High Plains where
precipitation and cooler air should be minimized. Expansion is
possible in subsequent outlooks, pending precipitation and frontal
timing.
..Lyons.. 03/10/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 092143
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
The upper level low currently over the southwest CONUS will push
eastward across the southern US through the week. Upper level flow
largely becomes zonal in the wake of this low, with shortwave trough
passages impacting northern and central portions of the CONUS. This
will lead to dry air in place just east of the Rocky Mountains over
portions of the High Plains. While the pattern remains on track from
previous days, the exact timing and placement of daily areas will
likely fluctuate with surface features dominating the forecast.
On Day 4/Thursday, strong west-northwest winds sustained up to 30
mph will impact the surface behind a frontal boundary. Thanks to the
cold frontal passage, RHs will likely reach near-critical
thresholds, bottoming out around 15-25% across a good portion of the
High Plains stretching all the way from northeast New Mexico to
eastern Wyoming. Thus, the existing two areas of 40% probabilities
were combined and also extended further north just barely into
southeastern Montana. The 70% area was similarly extended toward
this direction over extreme eastern Wyoming and southwest South
Dakota as well. Higher elevations of the Black Hills are not
expected to reach critical thresholds.
On Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday, additional 40% probabilities
were similarly added over portions of the same area. Thus, eastern
Wyoming and western Nebraska in particular should expect multiple
consecutive days of potential critical fire weather conditions on
Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday leading into the coming
weekend. Though, strong westerly winds will be less widespread on
Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday. This will lead to only slightly
higher afternoon RHs as well with cooler air in place and slightly
less mixing.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026
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