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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 190542
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough positioned offshore of the Pacific Northwest
will shift south and amplify throughout the day, resulting in some
enhancement to the upper-level flow overspreading this region,
including portions of the upper Great Basin. At the surface, winds
should increase throughout the day via diurnal heating/mixing.
Elsewhere in the CONUS, relatively light winds should prevail in the
wake of a trough exiting the East Coast, with broad/weak zonal flow
aloft and surface high pressure present over the eastern two thirds
of the CONUS.
...Northeastern California, southern/southeastern Oregon, and
northwestern Nevada...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast for this region today.
Sustained wind speeds should peak around 15-20 mph (with localized
gusts up to 25-30 mph possible, particularly across the northern
Sierra), while RH values fall into the low 20s and upper teens amid
dry/receptive fuels. The elevated area has been maintained and
expanded slightly westward, based on the latest high-resolution
guidance.
..Karstens.. 10/19/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 190544
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough positioned off the West Coast will continue
drifting south throughout the day, resulting in continued
amplification and strengthening of southwesterly flow overspreading
much of the West. Despite breezy onshore south-southwesterly winds
(sustained near 15-20 mph) across portions of southern/central
California, RH values are forecast to remain well above critical
criteria along with increasing chances for precipitation. Thus,
fire-weather concerns remain low for this region, with perhaps
locally elevated conditions possible across portions of far
northeast California and vicinity.
Elsewhere, fire-weather concerns remain low as well as broad/weak
flow aloft and surface high pressure continues to prevail.
..Karstens.. 10/19/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 182050
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
..Synopsis...
The upper pattern will remain fairly stagnant across the eastern
CONUS through the first half of the workweek. Upper ridging will
continue over the central U.S. as a cut-off low meanders along the
Atlantic coast through Day 4/Wednesday. With surface high pressure
centered to the north and upper ridging over the central U.S., warm
and dry conditions will prevail in the Southeast. Fuels across this
region are expected to grow increasingly more receptive,
particularly in the lower MS River Valley where forecast ERCs are
portrayed at or above the 95th percentile by Day 4/Wednesday.
Lighter prevailing winds should keep broader fire weather concerns
low, however. Ensemble guidance depicts upper ridging may transition
into the eastern CONUS late in the forecast period, indicating the
return of widespread above normal temperatures amid a persisting dry
airmass.
Farther west, a closed low will position just off the coast of
western CA on Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. This system will have a
slow forward progression into the Interior West, ejecting into the
Great Plains late-week/next weekend. This pattern should bring
additional precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the
Intermountain West, and potentially provide some relief to a drying
fuelscape across the Coast Ranges and Sierra Nevada in California.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/18/2026
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