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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 111647
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
No changes were necessary to the current Elevated highlights across
portions of the Carolinas and southeastern GA. A cooler but
considerably drier air mass continues to filter into the
southeastern CONUS behind a cold front as an accompanying strong
upper trough nears the East Coast. Downslope-enhanced northwest
winds of 10-20 mph with higher gusts in the Piedmont and Coastal
Plains regions along with relative humidity falling into the 20-30%
range, will overlap with dry fuels (where no frontal precipitation
occurred over the last 24 hours) to promote elevated fire weather
conditions across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the
Carolinas through this afternoon.
..Williams.. 01/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly
intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US
today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will
eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the
surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high
pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty
downslope winds over parts of the Southeast.
...Southeast...
As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope
winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the
Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the
downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread
RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the
favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a
few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 112004
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR
...Northern High Plains...
Increasing northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rockies along with
increasing surface pressure gradient across the High Plains will
continue to support a downslope regime across the central and
northern High Plains Monday. RH recoveries will be limited tonight
across the High Plains of MT owing to cloud cover and lack of
development of a deeper near-surface temperature inversion. Lower
elevations also remains snow free with a marked lack of recent
precipitation and extended period of above normal temperatures.
West-northwest winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine
with relative humidity in the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to
facilitate an increased fire danger across lower elevations.
Temperatures will be well above normal approaching 60F in some areas
Monday afternoon, despite expected cloud cover. Thus, added Elevated
highlights to portions of central MT for the expected increased fire
weather threat.
..Williams.. 01/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad
troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high
pressure building to the West. This will favor continued
Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface
temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude
fire-weather concerns.
The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an
advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow
aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping
will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent
precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are
possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry,
albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and
only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more
sustained elevated fire-weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 102152
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper ridge over the western U.S. will support
increasing temperatures and dry conditions through midweek. A
residual dry, post-frontal air mass will remain across the Southeast
through Day 4/Tuesday, but overall winds should remain light. An
upper-level low moving from Baja California into Southwest TX could
usher in deeper Pacific moisture and rainfall into portions of
Southwest TX and the Rio Grande Valley on Day 4/Tuesday. A potent
upper trough and accompanying surface cold front should move through
the central/eastern CONUS Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday, with some
potential to bring fire weather concerns back into the
central/southern Plains on Wednesday.
...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - Central High Plains...
A subtle mid-level short wave within broad northwesterly flow should
pass over the Southern Rockies on Day 3/Monday supporting enhanced
downslope winds across northeastern CO, southeastern WY and the NE
Panhandle. An intensifying mid-level jet over the northern High
Plains will similarly promote breezy northwest winds across the
same, snow-free region on Day 4/Tuesday. However, limited RH
reductions could mitigate a larger fire weather concern.
...Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday - Central/Southern Plains
A strong, dry cold front moving through the central and southern
Plains should bring gusty north winds and conditional fire weather
concerns back into portions of TX on Day 5/Wednesday. Pacific
moisture and precipitation associated with an upper-level low
currently near Baja California could mitigate fire weather impacts
across much of southwest TX and the Rio Grande Valley on Day
4/Tuesday, preceding the passage of the cold front on Day
5/Wednesday. 40% critical probabilities were introduced across
portions of north-central TX where minimal rainfall is expected amid
receptive/dormant fuels. Potential for an impactful dry return flow
event is possible on Day 6/Thursday across the Southern Plains, but
considerable timing/spatial uncertainty exists with the next surface
cold front entering the central U.S. Therefore, critical
probabilities were withheld for Thursday.
..Williams.. 01/10/2026
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