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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 141606
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
No changes have been made to the previous forecast. In the southern
Plains, poor overnight humidity recoveries and strong winds of 15-25
mph (gusts up to 30 mph) this morning will further intensify the
fire weather threat, especially across southeastern CO and adjacent
High Plains. A cold front will push through eastern CO this evening
with winds shifting from west/southwesterly to northerly at 15-20
mph. While RH and cloud cover will increase behind the front, the
initial wind shift could impact ongoing wildfires.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will approach the southern Plains today. At the
surface, a low will deepen in the central Plains. Dry return flow
will continue into the Mid-Atlantic.
...Southeast Colorado into central Plains...
A belt of stronger mid-level winds will overlap the region during
the afternoon. Coupled with the deepening surface low, winds of
20-25 mph appear possible with locally higher speeds in the
terrain-favored areas. RH 10-15% will occur in the High Plains with
greater potential for around 20% farther east. Winds may be equally
strong into Kansas, but the less favorable RH/cloud cover and recent
precipitation may modulate the overall fire weather risk.
...Southwest into southern High Plains...
Moderately strong mid-level winds will extend into the southern
Rockies. Cloud cover associated with the trough will tend to keep RH
higher in some locations, but around 20% east of the higher terrain
appears probable. Winds of 15-20 mph will promote an elevated fire
weather threat during the afternoon.
...Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont/Mid-Atlantic...
Dry return flow of 10-15 mph will occur during the afternoon. RH
will generally be 25-30% as temperatures rise into the mid/upper 80s
F. Very dry fuels in the region will support an elevated fire
weather threat.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 141900
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...South-central CO into portions of the Southern High Plains...
A very narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are
expected in the lee of the southern Rockies on Day 2/Wednesday as
gap winds increase in the afternoon. Downslope westerly winds of
15-20 mph will combine with RH of around 15 percent atop receptive
fuels, supporting the expansion of Elevated fire weather highlights.
Farther east, forecast guidance is depicting RH of 10-15 percent and
15-20 mph westerly winds to overlap portions of western OK where
fuels are dry and receptive. Elevated highlights have been expanded
to account for this threat.
...Piedmont/Mid-Atlantic...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for much of the region
as southwesterly winds of around 10 mph (localized gusts up to 20
mph) and low RH of 25-35 percent (localized areas less than 25
percent) overlap 90th-99th percentile ERCs. Given the widespread
nature of receptive fuels and multiple days of near record high
temperatures, Elevated highlights have been expanded.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough will continue eastward into the
Mid-South/Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Mid-level winds
across the southern and central High Plains will weaken through the
day. Only a modest lee trough is expected to develop during the
afternoon.
...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level winds will be waning through the day. Even so, a modest
lee trough will promote 15-20 mph winds within the region. RH could
be quite low. Some locations could reach as low as 10% with most
other areas reaching only 15-20%.
...Piedmont...
Temperatures may be slightly warmer than on Tuesday. Upper 80s to
near 90 appears possible. Dry air will remain in place. RH in the
lee of the terrain could fall to under 20% locally, though 20-25% is
more probable for most areas. Continued exceptional fuel dryness
will again support elevated fire weather during the afternoon.
...Southeast Wyoming...
Dry and breezy downslope winds are expected during the afternoon.
While meteorological conditions may support fire weather concerns,
there is potential for precipitation to occur on Tuesday which
lowers confidence in the overall risk.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142204
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest Day
3/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the
eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope flow and a
continued fire weather threat across the southern High Plains on Day
3/Thursday. A more widespread fire weather threat is expected on Day
4/Friday as the amplifying trough moves into the central U.S.
Farther east, upper-level ridging will keep much of the Mid Atlantic
and Southeastern U.S. dry through the week. The exceptionally dry
fuels and occasional elevated southerly winds will pose a lingering
fire weather threat across this region. Towards the end of the
forecast period, another deep trough will approach western CONUS.
While extended model discrepancy exists, fire weather concerns will
likely continue next week in regions that have seen minimal
precipitation.
...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains - Day 3/Thursday through
Day 6/Sunday...
On Day 3/Thursday, southwesterly flow aloft and subsequent lee
surface troughing will support a continued fire weather threat as
dry and breezy southwesterly surface flow extends into the
upper-central High Plains. Southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph combined
with RH hovering around 15 percent are expected across portions of
the southern Plains, with 40% probabilities of Critical fire weather
conditions maintained. North of a region of forecast precipitation
on Day 1/Tuesday - Day 2/Wednesday, 40% Critical probabilities have
been introduced across eastern WY, southern SD, and northern NE.
This is to account for 15-25 percent RH and southwesterly winds of
15-20 mph atop drying fuels. However, increasing mid/high level
clouds may dampen the bimodal fire environment to some extent,
precluding the introduction of 70% Critical probabilities at this
time.
A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the
central CONUS by Day 4/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak
and deepening surface cyclone across the central Plains will aid in
stronger west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. 70%
Critical probabilities have been maintained for Day 4/Friday across
much of east/southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and parts of West
Texas where extended guidance agreement portrays combined
probabilities of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph
winds, and the potential for an incoming cold front that may further
exacerbate the fire environment.
On Day 5/Saturday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may
arise in a dry post-frontal airmass, though uncertainty in frontal
timing and overlap of stronger winds and lower RH precludes the
introduction of probabilities at this time. As the amplified upper
trough exits the region on Day 6/Sunday, surface troughing across
High Plains and surface high pressure centered over east TX will
promote dry return flow for much of the region. Given the overall
pattern and ensemble guidance agreement in low RH and stronger
winds, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced.
...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont - Day 3/Thursday through Day 6/Sunday...
On Day 3/Thursday, a leading shortwave will aid in the breakdown of
the upper ridge across the East Coast. However, precipitation
chances are minimal east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, maintaining
dry conditions. Southwesterly winds of up to 10 mph and 25-35
percent RH atop receptive fuels support the introduction of 40%
Critical probabilities across the region. As the East Coast upper
ridge breaks down ahead of the deepening upper trough over the High
Plains on Day 4/Friday, the potential for a downslope wind event
exists in the lee of the Appalachians. Strong west/northwesterly
winds will traverse the Blue Ridge Mountains allowing for surface RH
to drop as surface winds increase along the Piedmont, promoting the
introduction of 40% Critical probabilities. On Day 5/Saturday, dry
southwesterly flow returns to the Piedmont and broader Southeast as
the surface low enters southern Ontario. With no expected
precipitation across the region, 40% Critical probabilities have
been introduced where dry and breezy conditions continue atop dry
fuels. Chances for precipitation increase on Day 6/Sunday as the
upper trough moves overhead, which could alleviate broader fire
concerns. However, the extent of wetting rainfall is uncertain,
precluding the introduction of probabilities at this time.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/14/2026
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