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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 040555
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will remain in place over the Pacific
Northwest today, with upper-level ridging located across the
southern Great Plains. This will support the persistence of modest
southwesterly, mid-level flow across the northern Rockies and
northern High Plains while a surface low migrates slowly eastward
across central Montana. This will promote another day of Elevated
fire weather conditions across portions of the northern High Plains
today.
...Portions of the Northern Rockies and northern High Plains...
Elevated surface winds of 5-10 mph in conjunction with a modest
strengthening of southeasterly 850 mb flow owing to a deepening
surface low over western/central Montana will generally limit
overnight humidity recoveries into this morning, with RH of 15-30%
noted across the outlook area as of 0500 UTC. A very dry boundary
layer will persist across the region today, with minimum RH values
of 10-15% likely this afternoon across south-central/southeastern
Montana, central Wyoming, and adjacent areas of the northern Great
Plains. South-southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph aligned with
low RH and receptive fuels will promote elevated fire weather
concerns across this area today.
The Elevated highlights were expanded slightly across portions of
central Montana with this outlook based on the latest guidance and
HREF wind/RH probabilities. Brief periods of locally critical
conditions may be possible in the lee of the Big Horn Mountains
where the latest guidance depicts the greatest potential for
stronger sustained surface winds. However, confidence in a sustained
period of 20+ mph winds is low at this time.
...Great Basin...
Similarly dry, southwesterly flow is forecast today across the
southeastern portions of the Great Basin. While localized elevated
fire weather conditions may impact locations where recent rainfall
was minimal and/or where pockets of dry fuels remain, generally
marginal fuels across southeastern NV and southwestern UT should
mitigate a broader fire weather threat.
..Chalmers.. 09/04/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 040557
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Similar to Friday, upper-level troughing will persist across the
Pacific Northwest, bringing cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and
chances for rain. Upper-level ridging will also remain centered over
the southern Great Plains, with modestly strong southwesterly flow
aloft continuing over much of the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and
northern High Plains. This troughing pattern and attendant
precipitation are expected to largely mitigate fire weather concerns
across the western U.S. for Day 2/Saturday. Elsewhere, upper
troughing remaining over the Northeast along with a surface frontal
system will continue to bring chances for rain to portions of the
Midwest and East Coast.
...Great Basin into Central Wyoming...
Dry, southwesterly surface flow will be maintained across the
eastern/southeastern portions of the Great Basin and into portions
of central Wyoming on Saturday. Locally elevated fire weather
conditions may manifest across locations where recent rainfall
was minimal and/or where pockets of dry fuels remain. Generally
marginal fuels across this region are expected to preclude a broader
fire weather risk at this time, however. While fuels are more
receptive across portions of central Wyoming, confidence in an
extended period (3+ hours) of overlap between 15+ mph surface winds
and RH below 20% is lower compared to areas farther southwest.
..Chalmers.. 09/04/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 032126
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough bringing much of the northwestern U.S. cooler
temperatures, cloud cover and rain will linger over the region
through the weekend, ejecting into the Northern Plains by Day
6/Tuesday. Subtropical moisture advecting into the Desert Southwest
and Great Basin Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday will likely bring additional
cloud cover and some rain to this region. This troughing pattern and
attendant precipitation will largely mitigate fire weather concerns
in the western U.S. through the middle of next week. Hot and dry
conditions under a persistent upper ridge over the central CONUS are
expected through the weekend although accompanied by relatively
light surface winds.
...Southern Plains...
As the upper-level trough and attendant mid-level jet accelerates
into the northern Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday, a surface low
should evolve across the Northern Plains. The increasing pressure
gradient will likely enhance southerly winds across the central and
southern Plains where fuels remain very dry (forecasted ERC values
in the 90-95th percentile range). This could pose a fire weather
threat to portions of the central/southern Plains where rainfall
deficits and cured/receptive fuels persist. However, forecast
uncertainty in RH reductions and degree of a drier,
downslope-enhanced southwesterly flow precludes introduction of
critical probabilities with this outlook.
..Williams.. 09/03/2026
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