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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281618
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 281700Z - 011200Z
...Update...
No changes were required for today's forecast. Please see the
previous discussion below for details.
..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing over eastern Canada and the US will
gradually shift eastward today as ridging builds over the Southwest.
As the pattern shifts eastward, northwesterly flow aloft will weaken
across much of the central/northern High Plains. As high pressure
strengthens, a surface cold front will surge southward across the
central Great Plains with much cooler temperatures behind it.
...Southeast WY into northern CO and western NE...
Lingering dry downslope flow is expected across parts of the central
High Pains from southern WY into northern CO today. Northwest flow
aloft is forecast to gradually weaken as western US ridging
gradually amplifies and shifts eastward. While upper air support
should slacken through the day, a fairly strong east-west pressure
gradient should still maintain west/northwesterly low-level flow of
20-25 mph across the south Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge and
northern CO. With unusually warm temperatures and continued
downslope flow, RH values of 15-25% and a few hours of locally
stronger wind gusts are expected. Recent model guidance has shown an
increase in both wind speed and duration through the first half of
the day. Given very dry fuels, the meteorological conditions should
support a few hours of elevated fire-weather concerns into this
afternoon. Fire-weather conditions should end overnight into early
D2/Sunday as the aforementioned cold front moves in overnight.
...Southwest FL...
Ahead of the eastern portions of the cold front, scattered
thunderstorms are expected across parts of FL. Ongoing drought and
recent fire activity indicate receptive fuels over southwestern
parts of the Peninsula. While some rain is expected, areas that do
not receive significant precipitation may allow for some ignitions
given the potential for lightning.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 281839
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Update...
No changes were required for Sunday's fire weather forecast. Please
see the discussion below for details.
..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging is forecast to continue building over the
Southwest D2/Sunday ahead of a shortwave trough over the West Coast.
Modest westerly flow aloft may support some breezy downslope winds
in parts of NM and TX ahead of a southward moving cold front.
Widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, though locally
dry and breezy conditions are possible.
...Eastern New Mexico into Far West TX...
With sub-tropical ridging forecast to build steadily over the
Southwest D2/Sunday, winds aloft are forecast to remain modest over
parts of the southern High Plains. However, very warm temperatures,
and high pressure to the west will favor some locally breezy surface
winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into far west TX. Warm
temperatures will support RH of 15-20% during the afternoon. While
the modest surface winds will preclude broader concerns, the dry
conditions and locally breezy winds during the afternoon could
support some localized fire-weather conditions amid dry fuels
D2/Sunday afternoon.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282149
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal mid to upper-level flow will remain present across much
of the CONUS early next week, with an embedded short-wave trough
entering the Great Basin. Increasing mid-level
westerly-to-southwesterly flow is expected to accompany this feature
across the Southern Rockies D3/Monday into D4/Tuesday. A deepening
lee surface low is also anticipated to slide southward from eastern
CO into the High Plains of TX during these periods. As the
short-wave trough progresses eastward and fills over the Central
Plains D5/Wednesday, most extended model guidance suggests a
long-wave trough will then develop over the western half of the
CONUS.
...Southwest D3/Monday...
Breezy west-southwesterly surface winds, along with warm and dry
conditions, appear likely from southern CA into portions of NM by
afternoon. While critical probabilities were evaluated for this
region, they do not appear necessary at this time given less
receptive fuels to the west (AZ) and slower wind speeds impacting
locations to the east (NM).
...Eastern/Southeastern NM, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper
Trans-Pecos D4/Tuesday...
A southwesterly mid-level jet, deeply mixed boundary layer, and
increasing surface pressure gradient will likely lead to a broader
area of breezy conditions at the surface D4/Tuesday. Unseasonably
warm conditions will persist across this area, and with near zero
probabilities of rainfall expected, fuels will only become more
receptive over time. Although extended forecast models differ with
regards to the southward progression of a cold front across the
Central Plains, and the surface low position, confidence has
increased enough to warrant 40% critical probabilities across much
of eastern and southeastern NM ahead of the front.
...Eastern NM D6/Thursday...
Model solutions begin to diverge somewhat late in the week as the
next short-wave trough moves onshore near central/northern CA. The
position, depth, and progression of it vary through D6/Thursday,
though increasing mid-level flow across the Southern Rockies and a
subsequent lee surface low appear likely. As solutions begin to
converge in later forecasts, low critical probabilities for at least
eastern NM may be needed.
..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
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