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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 081640
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. A dry cold front has
moved into northwestern Washington as of 12z this morning, and is
expected to continue eastward to reach southeastern Oregon by this
evening. Latest high resolution guidance depicts RH values will
decline to 12-20% (locally lower) and gusty winds will increase to
20-30 mph (up to 35 mph or greater in terrain-favored areas),
overspreading the Columbia Basin and eastern Oregon behind the
front. These weather conditions amid 80-95th percentile ERCs
maintain widespread elevated and locally critical fire concerns this
afternoon. After several consecutive days of mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms, some relief to the fire environment has been observed
across the West Slope in the form of better RH recoveries (as
compared to the last 7 days). However, such relief is short-lived,
as RH values are expected to decline to 15-20% this afternoon in far
western CO with residual mid-level moisture and daytime instability
encouraging mixed wet/dry thunderstorms to develop once again. See
the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move into southwest Canada, and an
upper-level high will slowly shift southwest off the southern
California coast. Between these two features, west-southwest flow
aloft will spread over the West, with embedded weak disturbances
rotating through. A dry Pacific cold front will push through the
Northwest and into the northwest Great Basin and northern Rockies as
a thermal trough extends from the Gulf of California into the
central Great Basin.
As the cold front moves through the Northwest, west-northwest
sustained winds of 12-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph are likely amid
minimum RH of 12-25% across much of the Inland Northwest. Ahead of
the front, a dry airmass remains with minimum RH of 5-15% expected.
West-southwest sustained winds of 12-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph
are likely to overlap this dry airmass across much of the Great
Basin and into southeast California, northern Arizona, and far
western Colorado.
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across
the northern Great Basin into the Four Corners. While pockets of
wetting rain have been observed across the IsoDryT area, fuels
remain receptive, including near to record dry fuels in portions of
Utah and Colorado. Some consideration was given to removing the
IsoDryT along the Nevada/Idaho/Utah borders due to potential wetting
rain. Ensemble forecast guidance indicates a 50-80% chance of
rainfall exceeding 0.1", but less than a 25% chance to exceed 0.25".
Additionally, due to expected thunderstorm development in the early
to mid-afternoon and scattered coverage of storms, portions of
southern Idaho, northeast Nevada, and northern Utah may not hit
elevated criteria for wind/RH.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 081848
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Afternoon Update...
No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. A dry airmass will
persist across the Columbia Basin into eastern Oregon on Day
2/Thursday, though lighter westerly sustained winds of 10-15 mph
preclude the introduction of broader fire weather highlights.
Localized wind gusts exceeding 25 mph are possible in
terrain-favored and gap flow regions of the Cascades, potentially
impacting any new or ongoing wildfires. Farther south, dry and
breezy conditions will remain across the Greater Four Corners into
interior southern California. These conditions following consecutive
days of dry thunderstorms could promote the emergence of lightning
holdovers. In addition, locally critical conditions are possible
where high resolution guidance depicts stronger sustained winds of
over 20 mph across portions of southern UT, and the interior side of
the southern California mountain regions into the adjacent deserts.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Westerly flow aloft will continue across much of the West as the
upper high is suppressed to just off the southern California coast.
A shortwave trough is likely to track along the northern periphery
of the upper high from central California towards the Four Corners,
with slightly enhanced westerly mid-level flow (30-40 knots) from
central California into the southern Great Basin. The Pacific cold
front will stall and weaken across the northern Great Basin and
northern Rockies.
Mid-level moisture will continue to get pushed eastward and
suppressed southward across the Four Corners, with most of the
moisture confined to along and east of the Front Range and southern
Rockies and across southern Arizona/New Mexico. Isolated mostly dry
thunderstorms remain likely in portions of western Colorado and
eastern Utah as enough residual mid-level moisture should combine
with insolation and terrain circulations to establish sufficient
updraft depth for cloud electrification. Additionally, some forcing
for ascent could be present as weak disturbances move through the
westerly flow aloft.
A broad area of elevated winds/RH is likely to develop across the
southern Great Basin, Four Corners, and interior southern
California. West-southwest sustained winds of 12-20 mph with gusts
of 20-30 mph amid minimum RH of 5-15% are expected to develop across
this region. Holdovers and growth on active large wildfires in the
Four Corners region are a concern given the recent lightning and
still very dry fuels.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082202
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
The extended forecast period exhibits a critical fire weather
pattern for portions of the Intermountain West with thunderstorms
earlier in the week followed by dry and breezy conditions,
generating a favorable environment for the emergence of possible
holdover lightning ignitions and growth on existing fires. Then, as
monsoonal moisture advects into southern CA and the Great Basin late
this weekend/early next week, opportunities for thunderstorms return
where dry fuels exist.
Residual moisture will push east of the Colorado Rockies and be
suppressed southward to southern Arizona and New Mexico beyond Day
3/Friday as a ridge builds across the western CONUS. Strong upper
troughing will persist over the Pacific Northwest through Day
6/Monday, meanwhile amplifying ridging and southerly flow aloft will
encourage monsoonal moisture to slowly translate northward.
Ensembles do indicate some initial dry thunderstorm potential on Day
5/Sunday into early next week across portions of southern/central
CA, the Sierra Nevada, and possibly the Bay Area where preceding hot
and dry conditions could increase fuel receptivity. Uncertainty in
the expanse of instability and northward progression of mid-level
moisture precludes dry thunderstorm probabilities for now; however,
guidance will be monitored closely in future outlook cycles.
...Days 3-5/Thursday-Sunday...
Enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will promote dry downslope
winds over the northern Sierra Nevada into the southern Cascades,
while an antecedent dry airmass and gusty winds overspread the
Greater Four Corners region on Day 3/Friday. 40% Critical
probabilities have been expanded to account for this threat. On Day
4/Saturday, 40% Critical probabilities were also expanded into the
Columbia Basin and southwestern MT where guidance depicts dry and
breezy conditions amid forecast ERCs approaching the 80-90th
percentile. As the trough shifts northward on Day 5/Sunday, strong
southwesterly flow aloft and lee surface troughing will maintain
fire weather concerns across the northern Sierra Nevada, southern
Cascades foothills/adjacent lower elevations, and portions of
central ID into southwestern MT. The spatial extent of drawn
probabilities may be adjusted in future outlooks as confidence
increases in the evolution of the upper pattern.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/08/2026
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