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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 160704
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will deepen as it moves into the southern
Great Basin/Four Corners today and tonight. As the trough
intensifies, an initially modest subtropical jet will strengthen
across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
strong low pressure system will deepen across SD as an associated
cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Another
shortwave trough will move over the eastern US bolstering low-level
winds across parts of the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
As upper forcing from the approaching trough spreads over the
Rockies into the plains, the surface low will deepen and move
southeastward with the cold front. This should encourage a broad
area of strong west/southwesterly downslope winds from eastern WY
and SD, into parts of the central Plains. Sustained southwesterly
winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH are
expected atop very dry and receptive fuels, supporting critical fire
weather concerns. Fire-weather conditions will gradually end
overnight from north to south as the front moves south with the
surface low.
Farther south across OK/TX and NM, a surface pressure trough will
encourage gusty westerly low-level flow. Sustained winds of 15-25
mph are likely as the surface low gradually moves southward ahead of
the cold front. Low RH is also expected (10-15%) owing to downslope
trajectories and warm afternoon temperatures. While some areas have
seen rainfall in the past few days, several days of poor humidity
recoveries and gusty winds have allowed for significant drying and a
broad area of critical fuels.
...Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic...
Strengthening southwesterly flow at the base of the shortwave tough
will encourage strengthening of a lee trough. This will aid gusty
downslope winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon. Afternoon RH
values will drop to 25-30%. With little recent rainfall and very dry
fuels, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear
likely. More localized fire-weather conditions could extend into
southern and central PA. However, here increased RH and weaker winds
amid areas of recent rainfall should limit broader concerns.
..Lyons.. 04/16/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 160706
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
Plains. A deepening surface low and a strong cold front will promote
critical fire weather conditions over the southern Plains. A second
shortwave impulse will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal
temperatures and some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the
central Appalachians and Carolinas.
...TX/NM...
As the primary shortwave trough over the Great Basin begins to eject
eastward, strong flow aloft will overspread the southern High
Plains. The surface low in eastern CO is forecast to deepen as it
lifts northeastward, dragging the front southward. Gusty southwest
surface winds, bolstered by westerly flow aloft, will develop across
eastern NM, into the TX/OK Panhandles by mid morning. Gusts of 30-40
mph are possible. Warm temperatures west of the dryline will support
RH minimums below 15%. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions
are likely within dry fuels.
Farther north, gusty post-frontal winds are possible over parts of
southwestern KS and the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly
through the day as temperatures cool. Brief elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry. The front
will continue to move south into TX/OK/NM Friday afternoon and into
the evening. This will likely result in a rapid wind shift which
could locally exacerbate burning conditions briefly. Adjustments to
the northern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas could also be
necessary as uncertainty on frontal timing is reduced in subsequent
updates.
...Central Appalachians...
In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, flow aloft is
forecast to weaken over much of the Appalachians. Still, residual
westerly flow may encourage lee troughing, helping to bolster
downslope winds to near 10 mph. With very warm/dry surface
conditions expected with subsequent mid-level ridging, low afternoon
RH is expected. This, in combination with no recent rainfall and
critical fuels, should support a few hours of elevated fire-weather
conditions from VA, into the western Carolinas.
..Lyons.. 04/16/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 152153
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
On Day 3/Friday, an amplifying trough will move into the central
U.S. as an associated mid-level speed max will intensify over the
central Plains. Tightening surface pressure gradients and a strong
cold front will promote a concentrated fire weather threat over the
southern Plains. Across the eastern U.S., a shortwave impulse will
aid in the upper ridge breakdown as the aforementioned trough
traverses the Midwest. As above normal temperatures prevail,
exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated winds will pose a
lingering fire weather threat throughout the East through the
weekend. Temporary ridging builds across the West on Day 4/Saturday
as post-frontal surface flow drives a dry and breezy airmass across
much of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest. On Day
5/Sunday-Day 6/Monday, the upper ridge slides east of the Rockies as
the upper trough exits eastern CONUS, promoting dry return flow over
the Plains and post frontal winds in the Southeast. Towards the end
of the forecast period, another deep trough is forecast to approach
western CONUS. While model discrepancy exists in the extended, fire
weather concerns will likely continue next week in regions that have
seen minimal precipitation.
...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains - Day 3/Friday through
Day 5/Sunday...
An amplified upper-level trough approaches the central CONUS on Day
3/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak and deepening lee
surface troughing across the central Plains will aid in strong
west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. 70% Critical
probabilities have been trimmed slightly to account for quicker cold
frontal progression than previously forecast. Combined probabilities
of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph winds ahead of
the front should maintain a critical fire weather threat. An abrupt
wind shift of gusty northerly winds behind the aforementioned cold
front has the potential to impact any new or ongoing wildfires
through the evening hours.
On Day 4/Saturday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may
arise in a dry post-frontal airmass, though uncertainty in frontal
timing and overlap of stronger winds and lower RH precludes the
introduction of probabilities at this time. As the amplified upper
trough exits the region on Day 5/Sunday, surface troughing across
High Plains and surface high pressure centered over east TX will
promote dry return flow for much of the region. Given the overall
pattern and ensemble guidance agreement in low RH and stronger
winds, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained.
...Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont/Southeast - Day 3/Friday through Day
5/Sunday...
As the East Coast upper ridge breaks down on Day 3/Friday, the
potential for a downslope wind event exists in the lee of the
Appalachians. West/northwesterly winds will traverse the Blue Ridge
Mountains allowing for surface RH to drop as surface winds increase
along the Piedmont, resulting in a continuation of 40% Critical
probabilities. On Day 4/Saturday, dry southwesterly flow returns to
the Piedmont and broader Southeast as the surface low enters
southern Ontario. With no expected precipitation across the region,
40% Critical probabilities have been maintained where dry and breezy
conditions continue atop exceptionally dry fuels. Chances for
precipitation increase on Day 5/Sunday as the upper trough moves
overhead, which could alleviate broader fire concerns. However, the
extent of wetting rainfall is uncertain, precluding the introduction
of probabilities at this time. On Day 6/Monday, post-frontal
northeasterly flow may increase fire weather concerns across the
Southeast as drought conditions worsen. However, uncertainty in
precipitation chances along the front on Day 5/Sunday preclude the
introduction of probabilities at this time.
As a secondary upper trough develops over the western U.S. on Day
6/Monday-Day 7/Tuesday, subsequent dry southerly flow over parts of
the Southwest and lee surface troughing across the High Plains will
continue broader fire weather concerns towards the end of the
forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/15/2026
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