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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 151652
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT
BORDER OF SOUTH DAKOTA...
...Northern and Central Plains...
Only slight modifications to existing Critical and Elevated
Highlights were needed for portions of the northern and central
Plains. Critical fire weather conditions including sustained
west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH falling to around 15% are
most likely across northwestern NE today. Accelerating westerly flow
aloft and a deepening surface low across the Dakotas will bring dry
and breezy conditions to the area. Farther west, increasing
high-level cloud cover could limit surface RH reductions and across
southeastern WY, but a locally critical fire weather threat still
exists in favorable downslope areas in the lee of the Laramie
Mountains where sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected.
...Southern High Plains...
A more transient and localized elevated fire weather threat exists
across portions of the Southern Plains today. Dry return flow in
response to a deepening lee trough across the southern/central High
Plains should bring about southwest winds of 10-20 mph and minimum
RH of 15-20% across eastern NM and portions of the TX Panhandle.
Short duration of the dry and breezy conditions along with
marginally dry fuels and increasing upper-level clouds should limit
a broader fire weather impact this afternoon across the southern
High Plains.
..Williams.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging will be in place across the southern Rockies
through the day today with a weak jet max near the apex of the
ridge. This will promote a weak surface low in the Dakotas, bringing
dry, breezy conditions to portions of the northern and central High
Plains. A Critical area has been maintained in portions of
northwestern Nebraska and far southwestern South Dakota, where winds
are expected to be 15-25 mph with RH of 10-15% in the presence of
dry fuels. Surrounding this is an Elevated area reaching westward to
mountains. Portions of central Colorado near the Front Range have
seen some rain in the last few days, however, have maintained an
Elevated area here due to low RH and enhanced flow near the
mountains.
In addition, some transient Elevated fire weather conditions are
possible across portions of northeast New Mexico during the
afternoon, with 15-20 mph winds and RH near 15-20% in the presence
of modestly dry fuels. However, due to the marginal, localized
nature, have not introduced an Elevated area here.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150622
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave ridge over the central CONUS will move eastward through
the day on Monday as a trough digs into the western CONUS and the
associated jet max overspreads the central and southern Rockies. In
response, lee troughing will develop over southeastern Colorado,
which is expected to promote dry and breezy conditions amid strong
vertical mixing across portions of the southern High Plains. Here,
winds may be near 20-25 mph and RH near 10-15% in the presence of
dry fuels. Therefore, an Elevated area has been introduced across
portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles, and adjacent areas of far southeastern Colorado and
southwestern Kansas.
..Supinie.. 02/15/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
A persistent and strong mid-level flow pattern emerges over the
southern U.S. early next week as upper-level troughing evolves
across the West. Subsequent lee trough development across the Plains
with deeper Gulf moisture confined to the southeastern U.S. will aid
in keeping dry and breezy conditions across portions of the central
and Southern Plains next week. More pronounced mid-level short waves
and attendant jet cores within the broad west/southwesterly flow
aloft could bring more significant fire weather threats to the
central and southern Plains, particularly on Day 4/Tuesday and Day
6/Thursday.
...Day 3-6/Monday-Thursday - Central and Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly winds in response to a deepening lee trough
across the central High Plains under moderate westerly flow aloft
should bring dry and breezy conditions to eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle on Day 3/Monday where 40% critical probabilities remain. A
robust 100 kt+ mid-level jet max ahead of a pronounced short wave
trough, along with rapidly strengthening lee trough across the
northern High Plains will promote enhanced fire weather concerns
across much of the central and southern Plains on Day 4/Tuesday.
Some uncertainty in RH reductions exists across the high Plains
adjacent to the Southern Rockies as mid and upper-level subtropical
moisture moves into the Southwest, but overall fire weather threat
remains high. Critical fire weather conditions remain most likely
across the TX Panhandle/vicinity and northeastern CO and the NE
Panhandle on Tuesday where a 70% critical probability area has been
introduced. Broad westerly flow aloft and associated downslope
drying and mixing will persist across the Southern Plains on Day
5/Wednesday. Another mid-level short wave and jet max moves into the
Southwest Thursday accompanied by deepening surface low pressure
across the Central Plains. Favorable downslope trajectories will
support dry and breezy conditions across the Southern Plains on Day
5/Thursday but wind magnitude uncertainty limits introduction of a
70% critical probability area at this time.
...Day 7-8/Friday-Saturday - Southern Plains...
Longer term ensemble guidance indicates a transition to northwest
flow aloft as a more progressive wave pattern emerges across CONUS
late next week, inviting a colder air mass into the Southern U.S.
for the weekend. Dry, post frontal flow could support continued fire
weather concerns for portions of the southern Plains on Day
7/Friday, but timing uncertainty limits predictability of fire
weather impacts late next week.
..Williams.. 02/14/2026
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