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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 140559
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are forecast from the Four Corners region
into the Great Basin this afternoon along the northern periphery of
a moisture plume originating from Baja. Precipitable water content
of 0.5-0.75 inches, deeply-mixed inverted-V boundary layer profiles,
and LCL-EL mean wind speeds of 15-20 kts will all contribute to
minimal downdraft precipitation efficiency with any storms that
develop. With ERC fuel guidance showing widespread 80th-95th annual
percentiles, lightning ignitions and erratic downdraft winds will
pose fire-weather concerns. While the transition from dry-to-wet
thunderstorms may occur further south of the current outlook area,
some trimming was done to exclude areas that received prior-day
wetting rainfall.
..Halbert.. 06/14/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 140600
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast for portions of
eastern Wyoming into Nebraska on Monday, as a dry and breezy
post-frontal airmass produces 15-20 MPH winds with 15-20% relative
humidity across the area. These conditions will overlap with
generally critical fuels, as ERCs are forecast to be in the
95th-98th percentile range. There is still some uncertainty in the
overall coverage and duration of Elevated conditions, so expansion
may occur in future updates.
..Halbert.. 06/14/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132152
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will persist across the northeastern
CONUS through late next week as an upper low remains anchored over
the southern Ontario/Quebec regions. An upper-level ridge will
flatten over the Pacific Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday, eventually
breaking down and shifting eastward over the central CONUS as a
trough moves onshore the West Coast by Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday.
Consequently, dry and breezy conditions with above normal
temperatures (and resultant dry fuels) will support expansive fire
concerns through the remainder of the forecast period. While timing
differences in various NWP guidance currently precludes the
introduction of critical probabilities past Day 5/Wednesday,
highlights may be needed across the Interior West and High Plains in
future outlook cycles as details become better resolved.
...Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday - Parts of the Intermountain West...
Several days of well above normal surface temperatures will occur
under the upper ridge through early next week, with record high
temperatures forecast to be met or exceeded in portions of the
Pacific Northwest. This anomalous, but short-lived, heat wave is
expected to further dry dead fuels over much of the western CONUS -
significantly so over the Pacific Northwest.
As the ridge dampens and begins to slide eastward, robust
northwesterly flow aloft should foster breezy surface winds amid
pre-existing warm and dry conditions. Thus, 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to eastern Washington and
southeastern Oregon on Day 4/Tuesday where confidence has increased
in fire weather conditions overlapping a vast region of cured
grasses. As robust northwesterly flow aloft overspreads the central
Rockies and a dry cold front traverses the central Plains,
heightened fire concerns should reemerge as ERCs approach the
90-95th percentile. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained
across the region on Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday, though
spatial extent may be adjusted in future outlooks with updated
guidance and fuel progression.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/13/2026
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