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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 241645
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
Dry, downslope flow commencing across the southern High Plains is
still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to eastern
NM, TX/OK Panhandles, southeastern CO and far southwest KS through
this afternoon. Upper-level cloud cover should inhibit optimal
boundary layer mixing, limiting southwesterly winds to around 15 mph
at the surface through the afternoon. Despite cloud cover, very warm
temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s under pronounced upper-level
ridging will result in minimum relative humidity of 15-20%. These
meteorological conditions combined with dry fuels supports an
elevated fire weather threat with only minor changes to existing
Elevated highlights.
..Williams.. 12/24/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will prevail over the central U.S. while a mid-level
trough impinges on the Interior West today. Gradual strengthening of
the surface lee trough across the Plains will encourage modest dry
downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains this
afternoon. 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20
percent RH will overlap with drying fuels over northeastern New
Mexico and southeastern Colorado, eastward into far southwestern
Kansas and the Texas Panhandle for a few hours this afternoon,
warranting Elevated highlights.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 241941
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
Minor adjustments to existing elevated highlights were made across
the TX Panhandle. Additional mid/upper-level Pacific moisture and
cloud cover ushered in by increasing west-southwest flow aloft could
limit afternoon RH reductions across portions the southern High
Plains Thursday afternoon. Latest model guidance depicts axis of
lower surface dew points shifting slightly southward for Thursday
into the TX Cap Rock and Rolling Plains region, resulting in
afternoon RH around 20%. Downslope enhanced west winds of 15 mph to
locally 20 mph are still expected across eastern NM, TX Panhandle
and Caprock. Elevated highlights were nudged southward to account
for the most likely area of alignment of breezy winds, drier
conditions and receptive fuels. See previous discussion for
additional details.
..Williams.. 12/24/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist across the central U.S. to some degree
tomorrow (Thursday), though some flattening of this ridge is
expected as the West Coast upper trough de-amplifies, with a
mid-level impulse poised to overspread the Rockies. As this occurs,
a surface low will develop over the central Plains, encouraging
locally stronger downslope flow along the central and southern High
Plains compared to previous days. 15-20 mph sustained westerly
surface winds are likely across much of the High Plains Thursday
afternoon. However, the latest guidance depicts relatively higher RH
compared to previous days (i.e. 20-30 percent RH across the southern
High Plains). Despite the locally higher RH, the persistent curing
of fuels and stronger surface wind field suggests that Elevated
highlights are warranted. These highlights have been introduced for
portions of far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle, where
RH is more likely to drop below 20 percent for at least a few hours
tomorrow.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 232140
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Valid 251200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
The expansive mid-level ridge across the central U.S. begins to move
eastward as a robust mid/upper level trough over the Northeast
Pacific continues to bring widespread rain and mountain snow to much
of the West. Persistent lee troughing under steady westerly flow
aloft should bring dry and breezy conditions on Day
3-5/Thursday-Saturday across portions of the southern High Plains
where record high temperatures are possible. The trough across the
West finally pushes deeper into Intermountain West by Day
5/Saturday, allowing fire weather concerns to linger across the
southern High Plains under an intensifying mid-level jet. A
mid-level trough deepens across the eastern U.S. early next week
ushering in a sweeping cold front that should reach the Gulf Coast
by Day 7/Monday. Dry post-frontal winds could increase fire concerns
across portions of the Southern Plains and Southeast in the Day
6-8/Sunday-Tuesday period where pockets of drier fuels exist and
minimal rainfall is expected.
...Day 3-5/Thursday-Saturday...
Anomalously warm temperatures in the 70s and 80s under a persistent
mid-level ridge will continue to dry fuels across the central and
southern High Plains through this week. Surface lee troughing across
the Plains along with downslope drying and enhanced west-southwest
winds should present an ongoing fire weather threat across portions
of far eastern NM, TX Panhandle and far western OK. Increasing
cloud cover and surface dewpoints across the southern High Plains
could inhibit boundary layer mixing on Day 3/Thursday, limiting RH
reductions and mitigating a more widespread critical fire weather
event for the TX Panhandle. Drier conditions and lower daytime
relative humidity should return to the region Day
4-5/Friday-Saturday coinciding with enhanced southwest surface winds
under deep layer west-southwest flow. 40 percent critical
probabilities remain for portions of the TX Panhandle vicinity on
Day 4/Friday and were similarly added on Day 5/Saturday.
...Day 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday...
A cold front sweeping through the eastern U.S. should be the primary
focus for fire weather threats early next week. However, latest
model guidance suggests expansive cloud cover and potential rainfall
along and behind the front which could mitigate fire weather
concerns within the dry post frontal regime.
..Williams.. 12/23/2025
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