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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 051544
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 051700Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
The latest surface observations across the southern Plains/Southwest
indicate some morning fog east of the dryline, but evidence of dryer
air is moving into the higher terrain of southern New Mexico.
Additionally, satellite imagery indicates a slightly more broad area
devoid of passing cloud cover versus what earlier forecast guidance
indicated. Meanwhile, fuel conditions thought to be more marginal
near the western periphery of the Elevated area in New Mexico have
also supported large fire growth over the couple of days, indicating
that antecedent conditions are on par for today's fire threat.
The latest forecast guidance also shows that the dryline will mix
slightly farther east than originally indicated with a slightly more
northerly track of the Front Range surface low as well. This
necessitated a slight expansion of elevated conditions to the north
and east. Additionally, the Critical area was expanded slightly to
the east to account for slightly stronger winds associated with the
southern extent of the jet maximum over the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles and southeast New Mexico.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
A deepening upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Four
Corners through today, with associated lee surface cyclogenesis
across the central High Plains. This surface cyclone will shift
southeastward through the period, with a trailing dryline across the
southern/central High Plains. Strong southwesterly surface winds and
very low RH behind this dryline will support widespread elevated to
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the central and
southern High Plains.
...Eastern/central New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and the
extreme western Oklahoma Panhandle...
As the aforementioned upper-level trough digs into the Four Corners
through today, a surface cyclone will deepen in the lee of the
central Rockies before shifting southeastward. In response to the
deepening cyclone, a tightening surface pressure gradient behind a
sharpening dryline will promote dry, southwesterly downslope flow
across much of the central/southern High Plains. Critical fire
weather conditions are expected across much of eastern/central New
Mexico into southeastern Colorado and the extreme western Oklahoma
Panhandle where the best overlap of stronger sustained surface winds
(20-25 mph), very low RH values (5-15%), and receptive fuels is
expected. Sporadic wind gusts of 35-45 mph will also be possible,
with the greatest potential across a corridor from east-central New
Mexico northeastward to southeastern Colorado where a 40-50 kt 700
mb jet max will overlap a deep, well-mixed boundary layer.
Elsewhere across the central/southern High Plains and Southwest,
sustained westerly to southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph will
overlap low RH of 10-20%, supporting elevated fire weather
conditions from southeastern Colorado/western Kansas southward into
West Texas and southeastern Arizona. There remains some uncertainty
regarding the eastern extent of the elevated/critical fire weather
conditions due to the placement/movement of the dryline. This will
continue to be monitored for any adjustments.
Some consideration was given to a potential dry thunderstorm threat,
primarily in the vicinity of the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles;
however, the potential for convective initiation to occur farther
west and overlap areas of elevated to critical fire weather concerns
appears low at this time.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 051915
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...
The Critical area was expanded to the north, east, and west to also
include extreme southwestern Kansas and additional portions of west
Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and south-central New Mexico. The
Elevated area was also expanded to the north and east farther into
Oklahoma and central Kansas.
Along the eastward extent of the Critical area, the strongest
surface winds behind the dryline will surge eastward, especially
across west Texas. However, the expected precipitation today
associated with forecast severe storms initiating and drifting
northeast from the dryline precluded an eastward expansion of the
Elevated area over the same region. Farther north across the
Oklahoma Panhandle and portions of southwest/central Kansas,
convection is not expected to impact fuel conditions through at
least the next 36 hours. Thus, the Elevated and Critical areas were
expanded over southwest/central Kansas and portions of the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles to encompass the dry slot, with surface RHs
near 10-15%, and southwest sustained winds of 20-30 mph.
Significant differences remain between forecast guidance on the
timing and orientation of the aforementioned surface cold front.
This continued uncertainty has impeded any farther expansion of
Elevated/Critical areas to the north and east with this issuance,
but this will be watched closely for subsequent outlooks. Even so,
behind the dry cold frontal passage, winds will shift to
north-northwest allowing an additional 2 to 3 hours of elevated
conditions.
The Critical area was also expanded, both toward the east and west,
along the south side of the previous Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook to
include portions of west Texas and more of south-central New Mexico.
Uncertainty as to how far west the critical conditions would reach
has been higher in these areas over the last couple of days.
However, forecast guidance does continue to show that critical
thresholds will be met and is only bolstered by the antecedent fuel
conditions thanks to the Day 1/Thursday drying.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will develop over the CONUS through D2/Friday
as an upper-level shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners
ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains while a cutoff
low develops over Arizona. At the surface, strong westerly to
southwesterly downslope winds and very low RH values behind an
eastward progressing dryline will support elevated to critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. A
strong cold front will then progresses southward late in the period.
...Portions of eastern New Mexico into west Texas and the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen as a shortwave trough
ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains on Friday. This
strong mid-level flow aided by a lee surface cyclone will contribute
to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, with occasional
gusts to 30-40 mph. These strong winds will overlap very low RH
values of 10-15% behind an eastward progressing dryline, yielding
critical fire weather conditions for portions of West Texas, eastern
New Mexico, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Elsewhere across the
southern High Plains, sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20
mph will overlap very low RH values of 10-20%, supporting elevated
fire weather conditions across much of west Texas northward to
southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas. A cold front will then
move southward late in the period, bringing cooler temperatures,
increased RH, and a sharp shift to northerly surface winds.
There remains some uncertainty regarding the eastern and northern
extents of elevated/critical fire weather conditions due to the
placement/movement of the dryline as well as the southward
progression of the cold front, respectively. Additionally,
convection forecast along the dryline across portions of the Texas
Panhandle today may bring significant rain to some areas that could
reduce fire weather concerns. However, an eastward expansion of
Elevated/Critical highlights may be needed for areas that do not see
significant rainfall.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 052144
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Upper-level flow will split on Day 3/Saturday and a cutoff upper low
will retrograde through Arizona and settle over Baja California by
Day 4/Sunday. This low begins to move eastward across the southwest
US and Mexico on Day 5/Monday and progresses through Texas on Day
7/Wednesday.
On Day 3/Saturday, the placement of the upper low near southern
California will contribute to strong and gusty offshore/northeast
flow over the area. However, elevated live fuel moisture will
inhibit the need for consideration of probabilities over this area.
As a shortwave trough moves across the northern High Plains during
this same time frame, marginally elevated fire weather conditions
are expected to be negated by recent cold temperatures and
precipitation.
On Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday, as the aforementioned cutoff low
begins to move eastward, surface winds will increase to near
Elevated thresholds over northeast New Mexico and western portions
of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Eastern portions of the
Southwest and western portions of the southern Plains will remain
under dry, but at times cooler, conditions through the outlook
period.
Early next week, there are some differences in forecast guidance
regarding the timing and speed of the cutoff low, but the overall
track remains similar. Given the recent precipitation and the
overall pattern, no areas of critical fire weather are currently
anticipated through the remainder of the extended period.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/05/2026
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