ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150640

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper ridge over the central US is forecast to flatten Sunday as
   the western US trough and a weak subtropical disturbance move across
   the northern periphery. This will help force the stalled front over
   the Plains southward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain likely
   over the Intermountain West and across the Southern Plains where
   monsoon moisture remains.

   ...Southern Plains...
   The stalled front over the Plains is forecast to move southward
   Sunday with showers and storms developing along it across parts of
   the TX Panhandle into OK. These storms may develop over ares of very
   dry fuels with the potential for lightning. While some risk for
   strikes is possible, slow storm speeds and increasing moisture along
   the front suggest limited potential for dry storms.

   ...Northwest and northern Rockies...
   Another day of showers and storms is likely Sunday as the upper
   trough moves eastward and monsoon moisture remains in place. Several
   days of preceding storms will limit available dry fuels.
   Additionally, slower storm speeds will favor a wetter storm mode
   over areas that have received substantial wetting rains. This will
   limit ignition potential. However, sporadic strikes are still
   possible within locally more receptive fuels from eastern OR/WA into
   parts of ID.

   ..Lyons.. 08/15/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142148

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0448 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid/upper troughing near the West Coast will wane as the upper ridge
   across the central US retrogrades westward by early Day 4/Monday,
   allowing drier conditions to infiltrate much of the Great Basin and
   Cascades. A mid-level short wave arriving early next week along with
   residual monsoonal moisture could bring additional thunderstorms to
   portions of the Northern Rockies Day 4/Monday, while also promoting
   dry and breezy conditions across portions of the northern Great
   Basin. Forecast uncertainty increases Day 6 onward as ensemble
   spread reduces predictability in the longer term across the western
   U.S. as fuels likely rebound to the drier side from recent monsoon
   moisture.

   ...Day 4/Monday...
   ...Central Idaho and the Northern Rockies...
   The aforementioned short wave moving into the Northwest, lingering
   monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will promote a favorable
   convective environment across portions of the Northern Rockies,
   central ID and perhaps into northeastern OR on Day 4/Monday.
   However, preceding days of showers and thunderstorms and good
   overnight RH recoveries could temporarily reduce fuel receptiveness
   leading up to this event. Although critical probabilities were not
   introduced for this outlook, the dry thunderstorm threat will be
   monitored for inclusion in future outlooks once assessment of
   rainfall distribution becomes clearer.

   ...Northwestern California, southern Oregon and northwestern
   Nevada...
   The same short wave and attendant mid-level speed max will likely
   bring dry and breezy conditions to parts of the northern Great Basin
   into northwestern CA on Day 4/Monday. A relative minimum of rainfall
   has been observed in this area over the last several days of
   monsoon-related showers and thunderstorms across the broader western
   U.S. A warming and drying trend is expected with the arrival of
   stronger west/southwest winds. This coupled with existing dry fuels
   will increase fire weather concerns, where 40 percent critical
   probabilities were introduced for northeastern CA, northwestern NV
   and southern OR for Day 4/Monday.

   ...Day 5/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
   Expanding drought and continued above normal 100F+ temperatures will
   most likely stay in place through next week across portions of the
   Southern Plains. Increasing southerly winds are expected to evolve
   south of a nascent Central Plains surface low/trough over portions
   of the northwest TX and western OK. South winds of 15-20 mph
   collocated with low afternoon RH and very dry fuels will bring an
   enhanced fire weather concern to the area Day 5/Tuesday, with 40
   percent critical probabilities introduced.

   ..Williams.. 08/14/2026