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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 031607
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
No changes were made to the drawn Elevated area. Scattered high to
mid level clouds can be seen streaming across the Pacific
Northwest/Great Basin ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave
trough, but are not expected to significantly impact afternoon
heating. At the surface, observations indicate RHs in the low
twenties to teens already this morning amid above normal
temperatures over much of the Elevated area of southwest ID and
northeast NV. While an isolated marginally dry thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out this afternoon over far eastern OR, confidence is low
enough to preclude the introduction of any drawn areas. The rest of
the forecast remains on track as described below.
..Stearns.. 06/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Weak and diffuse upper-level troughing will continue over the
Southwest while a mid-level shortwave trough traverses the
Northwest. Winds will increase across northeastern Nevada into
southern Idaho ahead of the shortwave and an associated dry cold
front, overlapping a dry airmass. Sustained surface winds of 15-20
mph (gusts up to 35 mph), above normal temperatures, and 10-15% RH
are expected by peak heating. While some green-up is in place over
the area, enough continuity of very dry fuels coincident with
previously mentioned weather conditions will maintain Elevated fire
weather concerns, accompanied by locally critical in terrain-favored
areas.
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely again
across portions of far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and
southern Colorado this afternoon. Storms east of the Rio Grande
Valley will be mostly wet with drier storms along/west of the
Divide. However, with weak steering flow storms are likely to linger
over areas, especially on the higher terrain. Additionally, slightly
deeper moisture may work its way into portions of eastern Arizona,
which would also limit the potential for drier thunderstorms. Fuels
remain dry, but some areas will have a second consecutive day of
thunderstorms, which may help limit ignition potential.
The upper-level ridge will begin to flatten over the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes, but the stronger winds will be displaced from the
lowest RH. Regardless, fuels remain very dry across these areas
(90th+ percentile) amid above normal temperatures and lower RH.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 031923
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
An area of Elevated fire weather conditions was introduced over
portions of the Intermountain West along/behind the anticipated
position of a cold front on Day 2/Thursday. Behind this dry front,
sustained westerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected through much of
the afternoon hours. Hot and very dry (5-15% minimum RHs) conditions
supportive of deep boundary layer mixing up to 450 mb will be in
place over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rocky
Mountain regions. While some fraction of green vegetation
sporadically exists over some of this region, this combination of
wind/RH amid receptive fuel conditions will support a limited fire
weather risk. Given the right alignment of wind, RH, and very dry
fuels possible within localized portions of the drawn area, critical
thresholds could be briefly achieved.
..Stearns.. 06/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Ahead of an approaching deep upper low currently offshore the
British Columbia Coast, zonal flow will overspread the Northwest
through the Upper Midwest. Multiple embedded shortwave troughs
within the downstream flow will encourage additional precipitation
across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin, bringing some relief to
a recently receptive fuelscape. Upper ridging will continue to
flatten over the Great Lakes region, steering surface high pressure
atop the Southeast and initiating a gradual warming trend into the
weekend.
A dry airmass will persist across the Great Basin into northern
Arizona with RH values declining to less than 15%. Weaker deep layer
flow should limit widespread elevated sustained wind speeds,
precluding any highlights. However, localized fire weather concerns
may emerge in terrain-favored areas where gusty winds and critically
low RH coalesce atop drying fuels. While a broader elevated was not
introduced, these conditions will likely serve as more of a curing
event, leading to increased fire concerns this weekend as an upper
trough traverses the Northwest.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 032156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
The primary focus of fire weather concerns will be a potent, deep
upper-level trough over the northern Pacific that will approach the
West Coast on Day 3/Friday. This trough will push further into the
northwest CONUS on Day 4/Saturday before shifting northeastward over
the Northern Rockies by Day 5/Sunday. As this system progresses, a
cold front will sweep through the Pacific Northwest and push into
the northern Great Basin. This front will bring a temporary relief
from the heat, dropping daytime temperatures below seasonal normals
across the western third of the United States. Behind the first
trough will be another potentially stronger trough to impact the
western half of the CONUS by next week.
...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains...
...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday...
Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow ahead of the approaching
upper-level trough will encourage a dry and breezy environment to
emerge across the Great Basin and Southwest by Day 3/Friday. 40%
Critical probabilities have been introduced where the latest
forecast guidance denotes an area of low RH and strong winds. This
potential will become more widespread and expand farther east on Day
4/Saturday and continue on Day 5/Sunday as the upper-level trough
progresses and the cold front continues its southeast progression.
Given the tighter surface pressure gradient and stronger mid-level
flow over the region, 70% probabilities of Critical fire weather
conditions were introduced across portions of eastern NV, southern
UT, and northern AZ on Day 4/Saturday and Day 5/Sunday.
...Day 6/Monday - Day 7/Tuesday...
Between the two primary mid-level trough passages, southwest flow
remains over much of the western half of the CONUS. While flow aloft
will not be as strong and the surface pressure gradient will weaken,
winds will remain strong enough coincident with persistent warm and
dry conditions to continue the fire weather threat into early next
week. Thus, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced on Day
6/Monday and again on Day 7/Tuesday.
...Day 8/Wednesday...
Another potentially stronger trough is likely to impact the western
CONUS once again starting on Day 8/Wednesday with strong
south/southwest winds ahead of the trough. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced where this threat appears
strongest at this lead time, but it will likely need to be expanded
in time (beyond Day 8/Wednesday) and space as forecast guidance
reaches better consensus.
..Stearns.. 06/03/2026
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