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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 201638
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 201700Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WEST TEXAS...
...Morning Update...
A surface low will move across the NM higher terrain towards the
northern TX Panhandle late this afternoon. While the region has much
cooler daytime forecast temperatures, the deepening surface low will
tighten surface pressure gradients leading to downslope westerly
winds of 20-30 mph with daytime heating dropping relative humidity
to 10-20 percent. Locally higher gusts are possible depending on
deep mixing, as forecast soundings have strong 40-50 kt winds at the
boundary layer. These conditions overlapping a mix of drier fuels
support widespread Elevated and Critical fire weather across eastern
NM, the OK Panhandle, and West TX this afternoon.
Additionally, far northeastern NM and the northwestern OK Panhandle
could have the potential for a few isolated lightning flashes
between 21z-00z. While the localized marginal nature coupled with
cooler temperatures precludes the introduction of an Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm area, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out given
receptive fuels across the area.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliot.. 02/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026/
...Synopsis...
As a shortwave trough embedded in broader westerly flow progresses
across the southern Rockies into the Southern Great Plains, dry and
breezy downslope winds associated with a developing surface low will
result in widespread Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns
across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma
Panhandle/West Texas. Relative humidity as low as 10-15% (drier with
southward extent) coupled with 20-25 MPH winds will overlap a
variety of fuel conditions, ranging from seasonal 60th percentile
ERCs to 95th percentile. This will support wildfire spread with any
ignitions during the afternoon.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 201900
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...19z Update...
Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions are expected
for portions of central and southern TX Saturday afternoon. Daytime
heating will drop relative humidity to 15-20% with northerly surface
winds sustained between 10-20 mph (gusting up to 25 mph) atop dry
fine fuels. A small corridor in the northern portion of
South-Central TX may be more favorable for Critical fire weather
conditions in recent model guidance. However, forecast soundings
have some low-mid level cloud cover passing over the region during
the daytime hours, and given uncertainties in stronger sustained
winds, Critical highlights have been withheld for now. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliot.. 02/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026/
...Synopsis...
A dry and breezy post-frontal airmass associated with a jet maximum
exiting the southern Plains will be responsible for at least
Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest
Texas on Saturday. Relative humidity of 15-20% is expected with
northerly surface winds of 15 MPH (gusting to 20). While there is
generally a gradient of fuel readiness across the area, with drier
fuels in the west, these conditions will still pose an Elevated
threat for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 202219
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
CORRECTED FOR TEXT ERROR
...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will amplify D3/Sunday as a trough deepens over the
far Southeastern US and Atlantic Coast. Widespread rainfall across
much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire weather
concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited farther south
across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern for FL where
dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire weather
threat for Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. The upper ridge will begin
to break down D5/Tuesday, introducing dry return flow and downslope
winds across the Central and Southern Plains, potentially increasing
fire weather concerns through the extended period.
...Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday - Florida and Southern Plains...
Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
3/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
precipitation across FL. A mostly dry cold front will pass through
the northern FL peninsula late morning D3/Sunday bringing post
frontal northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH of 20-30
percent. Coincident dry fuels should increase the fire weather
threat for a few afternoon hours where 40% Critical probabilities
have been maintained.
As the upper-level trough deepens on D4/Monday, dry northwesterly
flow is expected to continue with poor overnight RH recovery. 40%
Critical probabilities have been expanded to northern FL where
strong winds and critically low minimum RH will overlap dry fuels.
While minimal rainfall is expected on D3/Sunday, uncertainty in
amount and extent precludes the introduction of 70% probabilities
for now.
Cooler dry return flow will enter the Southern Plains on D3/Sunday
and D4/Monday. This will allow for continued drying of the
fuelscape, setting the stage for increased fire weather concerns on
D5/Tuesday.
...Day 5/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
Fire weather concerns reemerge across portions of the central and
southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
starts to break down. 40% critical probabilities have been added
where a combination of low RH and strong westerly winds overlap dry
fuels in eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Beneath the upper-level
ridge a surface low will emerge in the lee of the Laramie Range,
tightening a surface pressure gradient across eastern WY and western
NE. Very strong downslope winds may occur, though cooler
temperatures and RH uncertainties have limited the introduction of
70% Critical probabilities for now.
...Day 6/Wednesday - West Texas...
40% Critical probabilities have been maintained across the West TX
region as long-range models are hinting at hot, dry, and windy
conditions atop dry fuels. Increasing northwest flow aloft and
induced surface lee troughing will support increased fire weather
concerns.
...Day 7/Thursday - D8/Friday...
Uncertainty is too high for the extended period to introduce
probabilities for Critical conditions. Nevertheless, as the
upper-ridge flattens and multiple short-wave impulses cross central
CONUS, the pattern may suggest an ongoing fire weather threat
through the forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliott.. 02/20/2026
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