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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 241621
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
The forecast remains on track for elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon across the northwestern Great Basin. 16z surface
observations already depict RH values declining to less than 25%
across the region. Satellite imagery portrays mostly clear skies
this morning, though mid/high-level clouds will increase throughout
the day as the upper trough and attendant surface low approach the
Pacific Northwest. High temperatures in the 80s and 90s amid
sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph (gusts of 25 mph or greater)
and near 15% RH will maintain fire weather concerns where some dry
fuels exist.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
Increasing southwest winds associated with an mid/upper trough
impinging upon the Pacific Northwest will promote elevated fire
weather conditions to northwest portions of the Great Basin today.
An upper ridge over the south-central CONUS will maintain above
normal temperatures for portions of the Southern Plains and Lower MS
River Valley but light winds and marginal RH reductions will limit
fire weather concerns over the region where more receptive fuels
persist.
...Northwestern Great Basin...
A deepening surface trough over eastern OR/WA in response to
increasing southwest flow aloft in advance of an upper-level wave
will bring gusty southwest winds to the northwestern Great Basin
today. The sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph coupled with
afternoon RH reductions of 15-20% (locally 10%) will bring an
elevated fire weather threat to northeastern CA, southeastern OR and
far northwestern NV. These meteorological conditions will align with
sufficiently dry fuels for several hours this afternoon.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 241842
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
Only minor adjustments were made to the Day 2/Friday Elevated fire
weather highlights across the northern Great Basin; otherwise, the
forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion for
details.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
A robust upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest
D2/Friday. At the surface, a cold front progresses southeastward
reaching the Northern Rockies and Great Basin by late Friday.
Enhanced southwest winds prior to frontal passage will promote fire
weather concerns for northern NV into bordering OR/ID.
...Northern Nevada, far southeastern Oregon and southwestern
Idaho...
A 60-70 knot mid-level jet will shift over southeastern OR as the
upper trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest. The resultant deep
layer southwesterly flow bolstered by surface troughing stretching
from the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin will encourage
southwest winds of 15-20 mph (locally 25 mph) across portions of the
northern Great Basin. Minimum daytime RH within a well-mixed
boundary layer could reach 10-15% prior to frontal passage. Elevated
fire weather concerns are likely to evolve within the dry and breezy
conditions where adequately dry fuels exist over northern Northern
Nevada, far southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho. Gusty
post-frontal west/northwest winds could bring a secondary risk to
any potential wildfires but rising RH within the cooler air mass
will limit impact duration.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 242115
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0415 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 021200Z
...Discussion...
A coastal low will continue to strengthen just off the Mid-Atlantic
coast, bringing gusty surface winds and precipitation chances across
New England this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough will
lift out of the Northern Rockies and into the Canadian Prairies.
Upper winds will moderate slightly on Day 3/Saturday, though an
emerging 30-40 kt 700 mb jet will maintain dry and breezy conditions
across portions of the Great Basin through Day 4/Sunday. The
expected overlap of sustained southerly 15-20 mph winds and near 15%
RH would typically increase fire weather concerns, but such
meteorological conditions will overlap a region of marginal fuels;
thus, precluding Critical probabilities at this time.
Predictability wanes into early next week with ambiguity in the
progression of the overall pattern; however, the development of
deeper troughing over the western CONUS may induce an offshore flow
regime in Southern California on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday.
Additionally, some tropical influence from Hurricane Polo could
bring increased moisture to the southwestern CONUS early next week.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/24/2026
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