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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 300647
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will prevail along the East Coast, with
broad northwesterly flow aloft expected to overspread much of the
central U.S. today. Embedded mid-level impulses pivoting around the
upper trough will encourage multiple southeastward surges of surface
high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with lee troughing
expected across the High Plains. Modest downslope flow along the
central and southern High Plains will promote low-end Elevated
conditions across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas, where
localized wildfire spread will be possible given dry fuels. Offshore
flow due to the aforementioned surface high pressure surges will
continue to support dry, occasionally breezy conditions across
portions of the Southeast into the FL Peninsula, where low-end
Elevated highlights remain in place.
..Squitieri.. 12/30/2025
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 300657
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
A pronounced embedded impulse, and accompanying 500 mb jet streak,
will pivot southeast along the backside of the near-stationary East
Coast upper trough, supporting continued dry offshore flow across
the Southeast tomorrow (Wednesday). By afternoon peak heating, RH
may dip below 30 percent over several areas, from the Carolinas to
Florida. Surface wind fields will not be overly intense, with
sustained northwesterly surface winds expected to be around 10 mph
(perhaps 15 mph locally) across the Southeast. However, low-end
Elevated highlights have been introduced given the dry low-level
conditions amid curing fuels, which should support at least
localized wildfire spread.
..Squitieri.. 12/30/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 292136
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
Upper-level ridging will be over the West with upper-level troughing
over the East for much of this week before more quasi zonal flow is
likely to develop across the CONUS. A weaker closed low is likely to
move into southern California mid to late this week then weaken as
it traverses through the base of the upper-level ridging across the
Southwest. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Southeast
through Day 4/Thursday before moisture returns from the Gulf and
increases chances of rain across the region Day 5/Friday - Day
6/Saturday. Weak downslope flow is likely on portions of the central
High Plains mid to late this week before a cold front slides south
down the Plains late Day 4/Thursday into Day 6/Saturday.
...Southeast...
Elevated conditions remain likely in portions of the Southeast Day
3/Wednesday, but the 40% area was reduced from yesterday's outlook.
Breezy westerly winds will overlap a dry post-frontal airmass from
southern Georgia/vicinity through the Carolinas, and RH will be
below elevated criteria across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast Day
3/Wednesday. However, weaker flow will limit areas reaching
elevated/locally critical criteria across the broader Southeast
region. Locally elevated conditions are possible again Day
4/Thursday from eastern Alabama into South Carolina and north
Florida. While rain is likely across much of the Southeast Day
5/Friday - Day 6/Saturday, most areas will not see heavy rainfall,
including some areas seeing little to none (e.g., south Florida).
...Southern/Central Plains...
Dry/breezy conditions are possible Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday
on portions of the southern/central High Plains in a modest
downslope flow regime. Additionally, drier and potentially breezy
return flow may reach locally elevated thresholds in portions of
Texas during these days before a cold front pushes south down the
Plains. No precipitation is expected into the weekend for the
southern/central Plains, the rest of Texas, and into the western
Lower Mississippi Valley. These dry conditions will further cure
fuels regardless if they meet elevated/critical criteria.
..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025
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