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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 190702
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...
...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will overspread the Interior West as upper
ridging becomes established over the Rockies and a northwesterly
mid-level flow regime takes shape over the northern Plains to
Mid-Atlantic today. The broad upper troughing over the Interior West
will promote surface low development over the Great Basin, resulting
in dry southwesterly surface flow enveloping parts of eastern
California toward the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, deep-layer
ascent accompanying the surface low and northward mid-level moisture
transport associated with the upper trough will support thunderstorm
development across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific
Northwest through the day. The combination of dry and windy
conditions, as well as thunderstorms atop dry fuels, will support
efficient wildfire ignition/spread potential across a sizeable
portion of the Interior West today.
...Great Basin to the Four Corners...
By afternoon peak heating and ahead of the surface low, ample mixing
of a deep boundary layer up to at least 600 mb will support
widespread dry and windy conditions for several hours. From eastern
California into the Great Basin and toward the Four Corners region,
15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent
RH will overspread dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights.
...Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest...
During the afternoon, boundary-layer mixing will support increased
buoyancy amid strong deep-layer ascent, resulting in thunderstorm
development across the northern Sierra. Through the afternoon and
evening hours, these storms will gradually progress toward
southeastern Oregon into the northern Great Basin. Forecast
soundings depict inverted-v profiles approaching 500 mb with 0.75+
inch precipitable water values, suggesting that several storms will
be high-based. Fuels are receptive to wildfire spread across the
northern Great Basin into parts of the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies, with ERCs reaching the 80th to 90th percentiles.
As such, lightning induced ignitions are expected to be efficient
enough to warrant isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Scattered
dry thunderstorm highlights were also included for the northern
Sierra and immediate adjacent areas, where orographic lift along the
higher terrain may support a prolonged period of greater high-based
thunderstorm coverage.
..Squitieri.. 06/19/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 190705
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...
...Synopsis...
A relatively zonal mid-level flow regime will overspread the CONUS
tomorrow (Saturday), with multiple mid-level impulses poised to
traverse the zonal flow, from the Great Basin to the Mid-Mississippi
Valley. A surface cyclone will develop along the central High Plains
while a secondary surface low organizes over the Four Corners
region. Across the Great Basin into the Four Corners, dry and windy
conditions will develop during the afternoon, promoting
wildfire-spread potential. Dry/breezy conditions will also be
possible over and to the lee of the Cascades as a mid-level impulse
overspreads this region. Finally, deep-layer ascent along the
corridor of stronger mid-level zonal flow, with an accompanying
mid-level impulse, will support thunderstorm development atop dry
fuels over parts of the Pacific Northwest toward the central
Rockies.
...Portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners Region...
By afternoon, boundary-layer mixing will support 15-20 mph
west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-15 percent RH on a
widespread basis across much of the Great Basin into the Four
Corners. Elevated highlights have been introduced where these dry
and windy conditions will overlap with dry fuels. Furthermore,
Critical highlights were included for areas adjacent to the Four
Corners, where some guidance depict surface winds approaching 20 mph
amid near single-digit RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon.
...Portions of northern California to the central Rockies...
As a mid-level impulse tracks from the Pacific Northwest to central
Rockies, increased deep-layer ascent amid mid-level
moisture/buoyancy will support isolated high-based thunderstorm
development through the afternoon. While forecast soundings show
inverted-v profiles only extending up to 700-600 mb, stronger flow
aloft may encourage faster storm motions, decreasing precipitation
accumulations over dry fuel beds experiencing lightning strikes.
Since ERCs are expected to exceed the 80th percentile, isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights have been added for parts of far northern
California into the central Rockies, where efficient
lightning-induced ignitions are possible.
...Portions of the Pacific Northwest...
The passage of the earlier mentioned embedded mid-level impulse will
encourage dry/windy conditions atop the Cascades, along with
downslope flow along the lee of the Cascades. By afternoon peak
heating, sustained westerly surface winds may reach 15 mph (locally
higher in terrain-enhanced areas) as RH falls into the 15-20 percent
range. Given drying fuels in this region, Elevated highlights were
included.
..Squitieri.. 06/19/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 182158
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
An active weather pattern will maintain high fire risks across the
western United States through Day 3/Saturday before a temporary
shift in the upper-level flow takes place. The upper-level trough
contributing to ongoing fire weather risk will move onshore and
weaken as it traverses the Great Plains. This transitions the
western states into a brief period of zonal flow aloft, though
embedded shortwave troughs will continue to provide impactful fire
weather conditions, before ridging returns to the Intermountain
West. This pattern will reinforce unseasonably warm, dry conditions
and accelerate fuel drying across the region. Conversely, expansive
troughing will dominate the Northeast, sending periodic cold fronts
and widespread precipitation across the eastern United States to
suppress regional fire threats.
...Day 3/Saturday...
...central Pacific Northwest...
An area of 40% probability of Critical conditions was introduced
along and east of the Cascades in central WA and OR as the
aforementioned mid-level shortwave trough transits the region,
dragging a frontal boundary with it. West to northwest winds of
15-20 mph amid afternoon RHs of 10-15% and critically dry fuels will
support at least an Elevated fire weather risk.
...southern Pacific Northwest, Sierra Nevada, and northern Great
Basin...
As the main upper-level trough axis tracks eastward on Day
3/Saturday, mid-level moisture moving ahead of the system will
interact with strong synoptic forcing. Quick storm motions, limited
low-level moisture, and resultant high cloud bases will support a 10
percent probability of dry thunderstorms across portions of the
Pacific Northwest, the Sierra Nevada, and the upper Great Basin.
Strong, erratic outflow winds and locally breezy ambient conditions
will accompany these dry cells. The latest forecast guidance
indicates the exact footprint of this dry lightning risk may
fluctuate slightly as the system tracks eastward.
...Southwest, southern Great Basin, and central Rocky Mountains...
To the south, deep vertical mixing and a tightening surface pressure
gradient will accelerate southerly to westerly winds. This flow will
transport a dry air mass across areas with critical fuel
receptiveness. Current forecast parameters support maintaining a 40
percent critical fire weather probability for Saturday across a wide
expanse. The combination of sustained breezy conditions,
single-digit relative humidity, and highly receptive fuels will
foster an environment where rapid fire spread is possible through
the conclusion of the weekend. Thus, a 70 percent probability of
Critical fire weather was introduced over the Four Corners region
and adjoining areas. A small chance for a mostly dry thunderstorm or
two also exists over portions of the central Rockies and this
potential will be watched with future forecast issuances.
...Day 4/Sunday...
...Southwest and southern Great Basin...
As the aforementioned mid-level shortwave trough moves through the
Intermountain West and over the Great Plains, it will support lee
surface troughing which will enhance surface winds across portions
of the Southwest. Specifically, over western NM, where warm and dry
air will overlap best with these winds, an area of 40% probability
of Critical wind/RH has been added.
..Stearns.. 06/18/2026
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