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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 080749
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this
afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is
noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains
with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as
initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later
today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced
across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support
strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential.
...Southern High Plains...
Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this
afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM
into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations
are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is
around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP
solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry
air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air
mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that
sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between
30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week
and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal),
fuels will likely support fire spread.
...Northern High Plains...
A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing
the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International
border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure
gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect
will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and
WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent
observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the
effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are
expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire
weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain
receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 03/08/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 080806
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across
parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong
zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee
troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High
Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of
diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with
receptive fuels.
...Southern High Plains...
Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph
westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where
fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today
through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions
appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt
of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical
conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of
sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some
deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show
more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle
and into far western OK.
...Central High Plains...
A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the
strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of
cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday
evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the
western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be
strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer
heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds
of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple
days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region
have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will
likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire
spread on Monday afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/08/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 072159
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
A mid-level cutoff low and upper trough will merge while ejecting
into the Plains, tracking toward the East Coast through the middle
of next week. Surface low development is expected across the central
U.S. with the passage of the merging upper troughs early next week.
This upper air pattern will support a few instances of regional dry
downslope flow, especially across portions of the central and
southern High Plains on Day 3 (Monday), where 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced. Dry downslope flow may continue
across the southern High Plains on Day 4 (Tuesday), but possible
preceding rainfall and marginal RH precludes Critical probabilities
this outlook.
By the middle of next week into next weekend, a zonal upper flow
pattern will become established over the central U.S. with the
departure of the upper trough. A pronounced mid-level impulse and
accompanying rapidly eastward progressing surface low will support
widespread dry and windy conditions across much of the High Plains
on Day 6 (Thursday) given both strong gradient and downslope induced
surface flow. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced across
portions of the central and southern High Plains, where fuels are
most receptive to wildfire spread and are forecast to receive
minimal rainfall into next week.
..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026
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