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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071653
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
NORTHERN COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
...Northern Rockies...
Westerly flow over parts of the northern Rockies will continue today
as downslope winds increase to 15-25 mph in spots over parts of
central MT. However, increasing cloud cover is also expected to
limit afternoon RH minimums. This should keep fire-weather concerns
more localized despite unusually dry fuels and the increase in
surface winds.
...Central High Plains...
Minor changes were made to the Critical Area over parts of CO and
WY. Morning observations show downslope flow and partial clearing
over the Plains farther east. Poor overnight humidity recoveries
(below 30%) will allow for deep mixing today as RH falls further
this afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are likely from southeastern
WY into western NE and northern CO. This should support a few hours
of critical conditions given dry fuels over parts of the High
Plains.
Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional information.
..Lyons.. 02/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will generally prevail across the Plains states as a
mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a cut-off upper low
meanders eastward over the Baja Peninsula today. An embedded
mid-level impulse will traverse the upper ridge over the central
Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing over the High Plains
region.
Across the central High Plains corridor, guidance consensus depicts
widespread 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds with
downslope flow for at least a few hours during the afternoon. By
peak heating, RH may decrease to 15 percent along the
Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska border. When considering dry fuels with
the aforementioned stronger sustained winds in this area, Critical
highlights appear warranted.
Farther south across northeastern New Mexico into the northern Texas
Panhandle, downslope flow will support 15+ mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH for at least
a few hours this afternoon. Such conditions warrant the maintenance
of Elevated highlights given at least marginally dry fuels over the
southern High Plains.
Dry air will overspread the Florida Peninsula in association with
the reinforcement of surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS.
RH may dip below 30 percent over much of the peninsula, with lower
values possible locally. Surface wind fields are expected to be
relatively weak, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook.
Still, the dry air and receptive fuels will promote localized
wildfire-spread potential.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 071924
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...19z Update...
No changes were made to the prior outlook. Locally strong downslope
winds of 20-30 mph are possible over parts of WY and northern CO
Sunday. However, the overlap of strong winds with low humidity and
dry fuels appears localized. While some brief fire-weather risk is
possible, no areas will be added. Strong winds may increase
overnight into D3/Monday.
..Lyons.. 02/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will generally prevail over the central U.S. as the
East Coast trough continues to progress farther east into the
Atlantic, and a mid-level cut-off low overspreads northwestern
Mexico tomorrow (Sunday). As a result, surface troughing will
persist over the central U.S., with some hints of appreciable
moisture return likely over the southern Plains.
A strong mid-level impulse, with a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak will
crest the upper ridge Sunday afternoon, supporting surface low
development just north of the U.S./Canadian border. 20-25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds will overspread much of central
Montana into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. RH may only
dip to around 30 percent over most locales though, which should
limit the wildfire-spread potential to some degree (hence no
highlights this outlook). Still, fuels are beginning to dry over
this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall over the past few
weeks, so localized wildfire-spread potential is plausible. Elevated
highlights may be needed in future outlooks if lower RH becomes
evident in later guidance.
Otherwise, a dry surface airmass should linger over the Florida
Peninsula, amid a weak surface wind field, to continue promoting
localized wildfire potential through Sunday afternoon.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 072158
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
Mid-level flow over the CONUS is forecast to intensify and shift
southward as upper troughing over the East weakens. As stronger
zonal flow aloft becomes established, several shortwave
perturbations will move over the Rockies and into the Plains next
week. Periods of stronger westerly flow will likely support more
active fire-weather conditions in the High Plains early next week.
general amplification of the pattern should continue into next
weekend, likely with an increase dry conditions and fire danger over
the central and Southwestern US.
...High Plains...
Several perturbations within the increasingly zonal flow regime will
pass over the Rockies next week. A southern stream trough moving out
of northern Mexico will allow for modest lee cyclogenesis D3/Monday
over parts of NM and southern CO. Dry and breezy downslope
conditions are possible south of the low with RH below 20% expected
across portions of eastern NM and west TX D3/Monday. This will
likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential
despite fuels that are only modestly receptive to fire spread.
Farther north into parts of the central High Plains, a stronger
upper trough will move over the northern Rockies also supporting
strong downslope winds. A surface cold front will also move south
bolstering surface winds over parts of CO/WY and NE. Downslope winds
of 20-30 mph are possible. However, uncertainty exists on how dry
surface conditions will be given the cooler temperatures and cloud
cover associated with the front. Still, unusually dry fuels and a
few hours of strong winds and lower RH should support elevated
fire-weather conditions D3/Monday.
Episodic troughing will continue over the Rockies and Plains next
week with the overall pattern gradually amplifying into next
weekend. Ensemble spread increases by mid week but does hint at
strong troughing and increasing fire-weather potential into week two
across the Plains and Southwest. For now confidence in dry/windy
conditions and the return of Gulf Moisture/precip precludes any
additional probabilities.
..Lyons.. 02/07/2026
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