ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180658

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A midlevel trough will continue eastward across parts of northern CA
   into the Great Basin -- resulting in the breakdown of an upper ridge
   over the region. 

   ...Dry Thunderstorms...
   Large-scale forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough and
   ample midlevel moisture across northern CA into the northern Great
   Basin and Intermountain West will support the development of widely
   scattered high-based thunderstorms beginning as early as Friday
   morning and persisting into the evening hours. While around 0.75
   inch PW will promote a mix of wet-dry thunderstorms, quick storm
   motions and a well-mixed boundary layer should still tend to limit
   rainfall accumulations with much of this activity. Given preceding
   days of warm/dry conditions and increasingly receptive fuels,
   lightning-induced ignitions and locally strong/erratic outflow winds
   are a concern. 

   ...Great Basin into the Southwest and central Rockies...
   Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow preceding the midlevel trough
   will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer across the region
   during the afternoon. The combination of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20
   mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds atop dry fuels will
   favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions.

   ..Weinman.. 06/18/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172152

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   On Day 3/Friday, an upper low will transition east of Atlantic
   Canada as a secondary low atop central-Manitoba gradually follows
   behind. This pattern should facilitate expansive troughing to
   persist over the Northeast into early next week, sending a series of
   cold fronts and multiple rounds of precipitation through the eastern
   CONUS. An upper ridge will break down over the West on Day
   2/Thursday, initiating several days of dry thunderstorm potential
   across portions of the Sierra and upper Great Basin. In addition,
   dry and breezy conditions with above normal temperatures (and
   resultant dry fuels) will support expansive fire concerns through
   Day 4/Saturday. The upper trough will lose its amplitude as it
   traverses the Great Plains, transitioning the western CONUS to
   somewhat zonal flow aloft. While predictability is low, extended
   guidance exhibits increasing potential for ridging to build back
   across the Intermountain West, bringing warm and dry conditions back
   into the region early next week.

   ...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday - Parts of the Pacific Northwest, Sierra
   Nevada, and Great Basin...
   As upper-level troughing moves onshore, surging mid-level moisture
   and synoptic scale forcing will bring increased chances for
   thunderstorms. Given preceding days of warm and dry conditions and
   coincident curing fuels, the isolated nature of thunderstorm
   development could pose a threat for lightning ignitions across a
   very dry environment. Fast storm motions, high cloud bases, and
   locally breezy conditions support 10% Dry Thunderstorm probabilities
   on Day 3/Friday, and again on Day 4/Saturday as the trough shifts
   eastward. Spatial extent of the aforementioned risk areas may
   fluctuate as guidance is better resolved in future outlook cycles.

   Increasing southerly to westerly flow across the Southwest will
   transport very dry air and breezy conditions amid recently receptive
   fuels, promoting continued fire concerns in the Great Basin through
   the weekend. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained on Days
   3-4/Friday-Saturday to account for this threat.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/17/2026