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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140509

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1209 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough and associated stronger mid-level westerly
   flow will push into the northern Plains while upper ridging slides
   over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a dry cold front extending
   south of a central Canadian surface low will permit a breezy post
   frontal environment, bringing widespread fire weather concerns to
   the northern/central Plains. Farther south, tightening surface
   pressure gradients east of the CO/NM higher terrain will promote
   enhanced downslope flow and deep layer mixing. Increasing mid-level
   moisture and subtle forcing associating with an approaching short
   wave impulse could aid in high-based thunderstorm development across
   portions of the OK/TX Panhandles.

   ...Northern Plains...
   Strong post frontal westerly winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 20-30%
   amid dry fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat across
   the Dakotas. Farther west, more pronounced deep-layer westerly flow
   will yield sustained west winds of 30-45 mph across central and
   eastern MT during peak afternoon heating. Limited RH reductions,
   light precipitation over the last 24 hours, and green up across
   southern MT should mitigate an otherwise critical fire weather
   environment. Ahead of an eastward progressing cold front, strong
   southerly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) will persist
   through the afternoon hours across northwestern IA into western MN.
   Despite modest RH values of 25-35%, a mixed fuelscape of partial
   green up and sporadic dry fuels combined with very strong winds
   could support fire spread. Thus, Elevated highlights have been
   expanded to encompass this threat.

   ...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
   Westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph amid RH of 15-20% will support
   Elevated fire weather concerns from far southeastern AZ into much of
   southeastern NM and the southern Plains where delayed green up has
   allowed fuels to remain receptive. Ascent associated with the
   arrival of the mid-level perturbation alongside afternoon heating
   and resultant instability should support showers and isolated
   thunderstorms across the OK/TX Panhandles and adjacent CO/KS areas
   this afternoon. Forecast soundings depict PWATs of 0.6-0.8" with a
   prominent dry sub-cloud layer up to 3 km. This should limit
   appreciable precipitation at the surface, allowing the threat of dry
   thunderstorms to evolve. Gusty outflow winds and some lightning
   ignitions are possible in existing dry fuels where an IsoDryT risk
   has been maintained.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/14/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 140511

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1211 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK AND UPPER
   ROLLING PLAINS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Broadly zonal flow aloft with an embedded shortwave will traverse
   the Upper Midwest on Friday. At the surface, a continued post
   frontal environment beneath a departing deep surface low in Ontario
   will promote strong westerly winds within a dry airmass across the
   northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A mid-level impulse and emerging
   lee surface low across the southern Plains will further enhance
   downslope drying and breezy surface winds, supporting fire weather
   concerns across southeastern NM into the TX Panhandle. 

   ...Northern Plains...
   Deep westerly flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients
   beneath a departing Canadian surface low will encourage widespread
   dry and breezy conditions. Westerly winds of up to 20 mph and RH
   values of 25-30% support fire weather concerns across the region.
   Adjustments to the Elevated risk may be needed in future outlooks as
   precipitation continues into the early morning hours of Day
   1/Thursday across portions of eastern MT. 

   ...Southern Plains...
   South of a developing lee surface low over western OK, enhanced
   downslope winds of 15-20 mph will align with RH reductions to less
   than 15% across southeastern NM into the southern TX Panhandle.
   Elevated highlights have been introduced where these conditions
   overlap dry and receptive fuels. Furthermore, a narrow region of
   likely 20-25 mph winds and 10-15% RH (single digits locally) has
   prompted the introduction of Critical highlights across the Caprock
   and upper Rolling Plains.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/14/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132153

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An embedded short wave within broader westerly mid-level flow will
   move into the Upper Midwest by Day 3/Friday. Robust west winds at
   the surface in the wake of a departing deep surface low in Ontario
   will bring keep a fire weather threat across much of the Northern
   Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. A more subtle mid-level
   perturbation ejects into the Southern Plains Friday as an associated
   lee surface low develops across the High Plains, supporting dry and
   breezy conditions and enhanced fire weather concerns. A multi-day
   fire weather threat is likely across portions of the Southwest and
   Southern Plains as a larger scale trough sets up over the western
   U.S. with persistent southwest flow aloft bolstering lee trough
   formation across the Southern Plains.

   ...Day 3/Friday...
   ...Northern Plains...
   Dry and breezy westerly flow in the wake of a cold front will likely
   enhance fire weather concerns across portions of eastern MT into the
   Dakotas and western Minnesota, where fuels remain receptive.
   However, changes to current Day 3/Friday forecast are possible
   depending on rainfall distribution from Day 2/Thursday.

   ...Southern Plains...
   A swath of enhanced southwest winds will likely develop south of a
   lee surface low across the TX Panhandle across portions of the
   southern High Plains Friday. Enhanced downslope drying as the subtle
   short wave aloft shifts into the Southern Plains along with breezy
   southwest winds and dry fuels should promote a fire weather threat
   amid dry fuels. 40% critical probabilities were introduced across
   southeastern NM and adjacent far West TX, northeastward into far
   southwestern OK.

   ...Day 4-7/Saturday-Tuesday...
   Fire weather concerns shift mainly into portions of the Southwest
   and Southern Plains as a larger scale upper trough anchors over
   western CONUS for the weekend into early next week. Persistent
   southwesterly flow aloft will aid in lee trough development across
   the Southern Plains, driving dry and breezy conditions over the
   Southwest and southern High Plains.

   ...California...
   Stronger northwest flow on the backside of the trough with an
   accompanying Pacific cold front shifts southeastward over the
   weekend. Dry, post frontal flow funneling through the CA Central
   Valley should bring a fire weather threat to this region on Day
   5/Sunday as finer fuels and grasses dry leading up to the stronger
   northerly/northwesterly wind event. 40% critical probabilities were
   added to the CA Central Valley to cover this potential threat.

   ..Williams.. 05/13/2026
      




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