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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 091549
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
GREAT BASIN...
No changes were made to the drawn areas. Northern portions of the
Elevated area across east-central Wyoming may experience brief and
localized critical wind/RH criteria this afternoon. However, the
expected limited duration and magnitude of these conditions will
preclude an upgrade to the drawn risk level. Winds across this area
ahead of the previously mentioned frontal boundary will be
southwesterly sustained at 15-25 mph amid warm and dry (RHs down to
12-18%) conditions this afternoon. Elsewhere, the risk areas remain
on track with the latest forecast guidance. The front is likely to
be slow-moving across much of the UT today, struggling to move into
AZ by the morning of Day 2/Wednesday. Across the central High
Plains, the cold front will progress through the state of WY and
continue a southeast movement by around 6PM MDT before slowing again
over east/southeast CO. This will impact wind direction and
resultant fire spread for any ongoing fires across this region.
..Stearns.. 06/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
A trough will remain in place across the Northwest CONUS with a
strong jet max traversing the Great Basin and Central Rockies this
afternoon. Enhanced southwesterly flow amid a persisting dry airmass
over the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies will promote
fire weather conditions across the region. Accelerating mid-level
flow, daytime instability, and increasing mid-level moisture should
support isolated high-based thunderstorms across western NM into far
southern CO.
...Southwest, eastern Great Basin and Central Rockies...
Hot, dry and windy conditions supported by strong southwesterly flow
aloft will bolster widespread fire weather conditions this
afternoon. A corridor of stronger southwesterly flow ahead of a
stalled cold front over central UT/northwest CO will encourage
sustained southwest winds of 20-25 mph (locally 30 mph) and RH at or
below 10%. These conditions atop receptive fuels will sustain
several hours of Critical fire weather conditions in southern UT,
northern AZ, and far western CO. Lee surface troughing across the
central High Plains will reinforce southwest winds of 15-20 mph and
enhance downslope drying across the Front Range, where RH values of
15-20% will align with pockets of receptive fuels. Precipitation has
fallen within the last 24 hours across isolated portions of the
central Plains, thus Elevated highlights have been trimmed around
where appreciable rainfall has alleviated fuel concerns.
...Western New Mexico and far southern Colorado...
Resultant daytime instability and increasing mid-level moisture will
support isolated thunderstorms west of the Divide. Thunderstorms
will quickly translate northeastward through the period owing to
increasing flow aloft, limiting wetting rain potential. Receptive
fuels may support lightning ignitions as a deep, dry boundary layer
will further inhibit surface rainfall, maintaining an Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm risk.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 091923
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING AND FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...
No changes were made to the drawn areas. Although consideration was
given to small expansions along the eastern extent of the Elevated
risk in the central High Plains, recent rainfall has mitigated fuel
receptivity. While localized areas along the eastern edge of the
area in Nebraska may still promote fire growth, fuels conditions
have moderated at least slightly. Elsewhere, the latest forecast
guidance remains on track with the Elevated risk across much of the
central/southern Intermountain West and the northern Sacramento
Valley. Across portions of southeast UT, a fairly small corridor may
experience localized areas of briefly critical winds
(west-southwesterly at 15-25 mph) amidst the widespread warm and dry
(RH of 8-15%) conditions. Even so, with sporadic fuel loading over
this area, an Elevated risk was maintained.
..Stearns.. 06/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
An elongated upper trough will expand from the Pacific Northwest to
the Upper Midwest as an upper low emerges along the northern
MT/Canadian border. Amplified westerly flow aloft and surface
troughing will enhance windy conditions amid a dry airmass across
the Great Basin and central Plains, continuing fire weather concerns
into Day 2/Wednesday. At the base of the exiting upper trough, deep
northerly flow will promote dry and breezy conditions into the
Sacramento Valley where dry fine fuels exist.
...Eastern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and central High Plains...
Strong westerly surface winds in the wake of a cold front below a
pronounced 60-70 kt mid-level jet will continue fire weather
concerns to portions of the central Plains on Day 2/Wednesday.
Critical highlights have been introduced to eastern WY and far
western NE Panhandle where west winds of 25-30 mph and RH as low as
15% align with pockets of dry fuels. Weaker, but still impactful
westerly flow will support Elevated fire weather conditions in the
eastern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and Four Corners regions as
westerly 10-15 mph winds (locally 20 mph) and RH values of 10-15%
overlap dry fuels.
...Sacramento Valley...
Dry, post-frontal northerly flow funneling into the Sacramento
Valley will promote an Elevated fire weather threat to the region
and adjacent valley foothills. Sustained northerly winds of 10-15
mph (locally up to 20 mph) and RH at or below 15% are expected to
coalesce amid receptive fuels to support fire spread. Dry and breezy
conditions may persist into the overnight hours, leading to an
extended burning period and continued fire weather concerns on Day
3/Thursday.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 092132
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
A large scale upper-level trough will gradually shift eastward from
the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes by Day 4/Friday. Less
mid-level flow will preclude broader fire weather concerns later
this week as a ridge builds over the west CONUS coast. However, this
flow will provide potential for at least Elevated fire weather
concerns through Day 4/Friday. The breakdown of this pattern
(possibly later next week) will continue to be monitored for the
introduction of additional winds across the Intermountain West where
fuels are now drier and more receptive than a week ago.
...Day 3/Thursday and Day 4/Friday...
...Four Corners, Southern Colorado Rockies, and Great Basin...
The broader fire weather threat will linger over the Four Corners,
central Rockies, and nearby portions of the central High Plains
through Day 3/Thursday and Day 4/Friday. This contraction occurs as
influence from the departing trough and surface pressure features
weaken. Expect impactful westerly flow, though winds will be weaker
compared to earlier in the week.
...Sacramento Valley...
An Elevated fire weather threat will linger into Day 3/Thursday due
to dry, post-frontal northerly flow across the Sacramento Valley and
adjacent valley foothills. Northerly surface winds of 10-20 mph will
combine with RH at or below 15 percent according to the latest
forecast guidance. A 40 percent critical probability remains in
place for Day 3/Thursday.
...Day 5/Saturday...
...Northern Arizona and Southern Utah...
A weak upper-level trough west of the Baja Peninsula will advect a
plume of deep moisture northward from Tropical Storm Boris. While
this moisture reaches the lower desert areas of the Southwest as
early as Day 4/Friday, precipitable water exceeding an inch is
expected to remain south of the Mogollon Rim through the weekend.
This combined with dry antecedent conditions from multiple days of
the recent hot, dry, and windy pattern will result in a dry
thunderstorm concern over northern AZ into southern UT. The 10
percent dry thunderstorm probability has been maintained for this
threat. Modifications to this dry thunderstorm area will be required
in subsequent outlooks as forecast certainty increases.
..Stearns.. 06/09/2026
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