ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201925

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   The existing Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was moved farther west
   in agreement with the latest forecast guidance. While some threat
   exists during the day on Friday near the Cascade Crest, the best
   potential, especially farther north in western WA, will occur after
   06Z (early Saturday morning). Given the slower progression of the
   trough as depicted in recent forecast guidance and the heavy and dry
   (ERCs above the 80-90th percentile) fuel loading over the Olympic
   Peninsula, that area was added into the Isolated Dry Thunder area on
   Day 2/Friday as well. No changes were made to the existing Elevated
   Wind/RH area. Some uncertainty remains as to how persistent the
   clouds may be, which could keep both afternoon winds slightly lower
   and RHs slightly higher. Even so, the latest forecast guidance still
   maintains Elevated criteria given the dry environment and tightened
   pressure gradient.

   ..Stearns.. 08/20/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   The established upper ridge over the Great Basin will continue to
   amplify as an upper trough strengthens along the West Coast on Day
   2/Friday. A mid-level low pressure system will near the Pacific
   Northwest coast as the upper-level jet max peaks over
   southern/central Oregon, providing a favorable setup for
   thunderstorms along/east of the Cascades. Farther south, increasing
   southwesterly flow over the western Great Basin will promote gusty
   surface winds within a warm and dry airmass, yielding elevated fire
   weather concerns.

   ...Central-eastern Oregon/Washington...
   As the mid-level low nears the Oregon/Washington coastline, synoptic
   scale forcing will overspread the Pacific Northwest late
   afternoon/overnight. As a result of afternoon vertical mixing, some
   isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (5-15% chance) before better
   moisture is ushered in by the upper trough late evening. However,
   widespread cloud cover during the day may inhibit solar insolation,
   thus limiting greater instability. While some timing disparity is
   portrayed in recent guidance on the approach of the upper trough,
   the overall pattern is favorable for thunderstorm potential
   overnight. Forecast soundings depict 0.8-1.0" PWATs, 30-35 kt LCL-EL
   winds, and a dry sub-cloud layer, indicating higher rainfall
   accumulation will likely remain localized (or within areas that see
   multiple rounds of storms). A drought-stressed and recently
   receptive fuel environment will raise concerns for new lightning
   ignitions; thus, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area was
   introduced across the region to capture the expanse of thunderstorm
   potential in the afternoon and the overnight hours. Highlights may
   need to be confined in future outlooks as the pattern is better
   resolved.

   ...Northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, and southern
   Oregon...
   Daytime high temperatures will be slightly cooler on Day 2/Friday as
   compared to previous days, but will still range from 90-100 F. At
   peak heating, sustained southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph (gusts up
   to 25 mph) and 10-15% RH will allow elevated fire weather conditions
   to evolve where fuels have grown increasingly more receptive.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192150

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0450 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An established ridge over the Intermountain West will amplify and
   the pressure gradient will continue to tighten on Day 3/Friday as a
   trough approaches the west CONUS coast. A mid-level low pressure
   system will near the Pacific Northwest coast on Day 3/Friday as the
   upper-level jet max peaks over southern/central OR. This will
   provide widespread lift to portions of the Cascade Mountains and
   then much of central/eastern WA under the left exit region of the
   jet streak on the evening/night of Day 3/Friday. The trough will
   begin to lift northeastward as it becomes slightly negatively-tilted
   going into Day 4/Saturday. High pressure remains in place over much
   of the southwestern half of the CONUS with shortwave trough passages
   periodically moving across the crest of the high through the
   northern states. While slight differences in timing of the
   aforementioned trough remain, the overall pattern evolution remains
   similar amongst various ensemble forecast guidance. As we turn the
   corner toward next week, the ridge broadens and builds over the
   Intermountain West once again. Forecast certainty in any particular
   solution decreases thereafter given greater ensemble spread.

   ...Pacific Northwest/Northern California/Great Basin...
   The Pacific Northwest and immediately neighboring areas of northern
   California and the Great Basin will remain the foci through at least
   the first half of the extended forecast. Starting on Day 3/Friday
   and continuing through Day 4/Saturday, expect multiple consecutive
   days of gusty southwesterly winds combined with warm and dry weather
   as the aforementioned large trough approaches from the west.
   Increasing above-normal temperatures through Day 3/Friday will give
   way to cooler conditions as the trough approaches and moves onshore
   Day 4/Saturday. Given the jet aloft and surface conditions that
   would support deep daytime mixing, a favorable pattern remains in
   place for dry and breezy weather to overlap very dry fuels across
   northeastern CA, southern OR, and northwestern NV. 40% Critical
   probabilities were maintained on Day 3/Friday through Day 4/Saturday
   along with a widespread 10% probability of Dry Thunderstorms over
   much of the Pacific Northwest and the nearby northern Rockies.
   Additionally, where winds appear strongest (sustained at 20-25 mph
   from the southwest) over the tri-state CA, OR, NV area, 70% Critical
   probabilities were maintained on Day 4/Saturday. While a
   thunderstorm or two favoring the higher terrain of the Cascades (and
   pyro-aided convection amid initially hot, dry, and windy surface
   conditions) can't be ruled out on the afternoon of Day 3/Friday, the
   best convective potential will occur starting around 06Z on Saturday
   (Friday night) as the jet max approaches. This pattern of
   aforementioned upper-level support, limited but adequate
   (precipitable water values near 0.5-0.7") moisture, fast-moving
   (25-35 mph) storms, and dry fuels (ERCs near the 80-95th percentile)
   remains in place on Day 4/Saturday. With minimal precipitation
   expected from the previous day, an area of 10% Dry Thunderstorm risk
   was introduced over portions of the northern Pacific Northwest
   region and the nearby far western extent of the northern Rockies
   region.

   ...Southern Plains...
   On Day 5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday, a cold front will move across the
   southern Plains, increasing fire weather risk in southwesterly flow
   ahead of the front as it progresses southeastward. Current ensemble
   forecast guidance suggests sustained 10-20 mph south to
   southwesterly winds will combine with afternoon RHs near 15-20%
   across the TX/OK Panhandles and surrounding areas with critically
   dry fuels.

   ...Northern Plains...
   Evolution of the post-frontal northwesterly winds over the northern
   High Plains remains a concern on Day 5/Sunday. Across much of the
   central MT, sustained northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph will occur.
   Some forecast guidance shows these strong and gusty winds extending
   even farther across eastern MT. This area will be watched closely
   with future outlook issuances.

   ..Stearns.. 08/19/2026