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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 111701
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated to locally critical winds/RH remain expected today
in portions of eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. Some of those
conditions already occurring at several stations along/east of the
Front Range in Colorado into southeast Wyoming. 100/1000-hour fuels
remain near to slightly above normal values and likely partly to
mostly cloudy conditions may limit the receptiveness of 1/10-hour
fuels. However, given the strength of the winds (gusts of 30-60
mph), fires in fine fuels cannot be ruled out.
..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. The pattern
will favor high amplitude ridging across the western US and
troughing across the eastern US. Westerly flow across the northern
Rockies and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some
overlap of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and
southern High Plains. Across eastern Colorado into southeastern
Wyoming, west-northwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph will overlap
minimum RH of 15-30%. Across west Texas into central Oklahoma, areas
of overlap of southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH
of 15-25% will be possible. Fuels across both of these regions
remain marginal and are not receptive to large fire spread, which
will preclude inclusion of any areas at this time.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 111941
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Friday. The
pattern will remain fairly similar to D1, with ridging across the
western US and troughing in the east. Breezy conditions will
continue across the central and southern High Plains as a cold front
shifts southward into towards coastal Texas through the end of the
period. Some overlap of localized brief windy/dry conditions will be
possible across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico.
Overall, localized potential for any Elevated conditions and
marginal fuels will preclude the need to include areas at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 112059
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward and amplify over the West
this weekend, but weak upper troughing and embedded upper lows are
likely to traverse across the Intermountain West and eventually over
the southern/central Plains early to mid-next week. A strong jet
along with another strong atmospheric river will likely impinge on
the northwestern US early next week, with heights forecast to lower
and the jet shifting farther south across the West mid to late next
week. The southern half of the West, southern/central Plains, and
portions of the Southeast are likely to receive little to no
precipitation during the forecast period.
...Southern/Central High Plains...
Locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern New
Mexico into west Texas Day 3/Saturday ahead/along an approaching
cold front. Rain chances are likely to remain confined to portions
of south/east Texas and along portions of the Gulf Coast into
portions of the Deep South. Most of west/north Texas and portions of
central Texas are likely to remain rain free, further curing fuels
in these areas.
As stronger flow aloft spreads across the West and into the Rockies
Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday, chances for critical fire weather
conditions increase. Increased downslope flow and lee troughing will
increase winds amid a dry airmass around mid-next week for multiple
days. The timing/location of these conditions still remain
uncertain, precluding introducing probabilities at this time.
However, if forecast trends hold, probabilities for critical
conditions will likely increase enough around mid-next week on
portions of the southern/central High Plains, with the southern High
Plains currently favored, to include risk areas in future outlooks.
...Portions of the Southeast...
Dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of Georgia, South
Carolina, Alabama, and Florida Day 4/Sunday as a cold front pushes
through the Southeast. Additionally, post-frontal dry conditions are
likely to remain into Day 6/Tuesday across portions of the
Southeast. However, given the recent precipitation and limited
overlap of elevated/locally critical winds/RH, no probabilities were
included.
..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025
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