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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 300501
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level Pacific low will move onshore the Baja Peninsula
and transition into an eastward projecting shortwave. Downstream, a
robust westerly 50-70 kt jet will emerge across central TX extending
into the Southeast this afternoon. Ample Pacific moisture transport
will encourage widespread wetting rains and a reduced fire weather
threat across much of the central and southern High Plains. Broad
upper troughing will become established over the Northeast, anchored
by a persistent closed upper-level low over southern Ontario. In the
Southeast, a weak, southward propagating weak cold front is expected
to stall over southern GA and northern FL, increasing precipitation
chances to where extensive drought and receptive fuels remain.
Conversely, high pressure ahead of this front will promote a warm,
dry airmass over Central FL where fire weather concerns reemerge
amid a very dry fuelscape.
...Central Florida...
Surface high pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions for much
of the FL Peninsula this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving,
quasi-stationary cold front draped across the Gulf Coast and
northern FL. A few thunderstorms are possible along this boundary,
mainly along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Lightning
ignitions are possible in areas that do not see sufficient rainfall,
and resultant gusty/erratic outflow winds from thunderstorms could
further exacerbate any new/ongoing fires. South of the front, an
Elevated fire weather threat exists where westerly winds of up to 10
mph will partially overlap a region of 25-35 percent RH amid drought
stressed fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/30/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 300502
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A ridge of high pressure will shift east over the Great Basin as a
closed low develops offshore the Pacific Northwest. An amplifying
upper trough across the Eastern Seaboard will dig southward and
amalgamate with a subtropical shortwave traversing the Gulf Coast
region, further enhancing westerly flow aloft for much of the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread precipitation over the
southern Plains on Friday is expected to provide much needed relief
to an extensively dry fuelscape. Prolonged dry and breezy conditions
across the Florida Peninsula will continue fire weather concerns
where drought-stressed fuels exist.
...Central Florida...
Ahead of a stalled frontal boundary draped over northern FL, steady
westerly flow and a relatively dry airmass amid receptive fuels will
pose a fire weather threat on Friday afternoon for the FL Peninsula.
In response to increasing subtropical moisture aloft, high cloud
cover will build across the Peninsula throughout the afternoon.
However, some breaks in the clouds should allow for deeper mixing
into a dry boundary layer. Elevated highlights have been introduced
where RH values are expected to drop between 25-35 percent at peak
heating while westerly winds increase to 10 mph atop dry fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/30/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 292134
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad troughing should remain well established across the eastern
U.S. for the weekend into early next week while upper-level ridging
takes hold over the Intermountain West. Elevated westerly winds and
dry conditions will bring a fire weather threat to portions of
central FL Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday before a cold front and
associated band of rainfall shifts southward Saturday night into Day
5/Sunday. A Pacific trough intrudes into the western U.S. early next
week supporting dry, southwesterly flow across the Desert Southwest,
Great Basin and Colorado River Basin. However, limited fuel
receptiveness should mitigate fire weather concerns across portions
of the Intermountain West. Persistent northwest flow aloft over the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest along with minimal precipitation,
along with several passing cold fronts, could pose a fire weather
concern next week as fuels dry. However, forecast uncertainty
remains in timing and extent of post-frontal impacts across the
region.
...Florida Peninsula...
Fire weather concerns will persist across portions of the FL
Peninsula Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday as a cold front and attendant
showers and thunderstorms remain draped across the Deep South and
Gulf Coast. Steady westerly flow over the FL Peninsula and
relatively dry boundary layer conditions will support a fire weather
threat amid very dry fuels on Friday. An upper-level trough
amplifying across the eastern U.S. and deepening surface low off the
Carolina Coast should bring enhanced westerly winds around 15 mph to
the peninsula Day 4/Saturday. Coupled with very warm temperature
(lower 90s F) and a deep well-mixed boundary layer, this will
promote a fire weather threat across central FL Saturday. 40%
critical probability areas on both Friday and Saturday were only
slightly modified based on latest forecast guidance. The cold front
and attendant showers and thunderstorms shift south by Day 5/Sunday,
bringing needed rainfall to many locations. However, there could be
some areas that evade wetting rains owing to timing of diurnal
convective cycle and rain intensity over central FL.
..Williams.. 04/29/2026
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