|
U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 171649
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
...Central and Southern Texas...
Very dry, post-frontal flow from the north-northeast at 10-15 mph
(locally 20 mph) will continue across much central/southern Texas
through this evening. Despite the cooler temperatures ranging from
the upper 40s to upper 50s, surface dewpoints in the 0-10F range
should yield very low relative humidity below 10% across southern TX
by peak afternoon heating under mostly clear skies. These conditions
aligned with receptive and drought stressed fuels will promote at
least elevated fire weather conditions for much of central and
southern TX through today. A locally critical fire weather threat
still exists where winds of 20 mph materialize. A slight expansion
of the Elevated highlights was necessary owing to current surface
observations and short term model trends.
...West-Central High Plains...
Sustained north-northwest winds of 25-35 mph with localized gusts to
50-55 mph this morning should gradually diminish today across
southeastern WY, eastern CO, the NE Panhandle and western Kansas.
Although the gusty winds will align with minimum relative humidity
of 10-20% this afternoon, cold temperatures with highs in the 20s to
low 30s should inhibit ignitions across an otherwise receptive
fuelscape.
..Williams.. 01/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
Much of the Continental U.S. east of the Rockies will be dominated
by mid-level troughing, with the surface conditions primarily
characterized by cold air advection due to an intensifying surface
pressure gradient as high pressure builds over the Central Great
Plains. While much of the U.S. will experience cooler temperatures,
some Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated this afternoon
over portions of Central and Southern Texas where dry and breezy
post-frontal conditions overlap with receptive fuels.
...Central and Southern Texas...
Though the surface cold front will already be well into the Gulf by
early morning, daytime heating and mixing during the afternoon are
expected to bring surface temperatures into the upper 40s in Central
TX to the upper 50s in Southern TX. Relative humidity as low as 15%
will overlap with fuels that exceed the 99th seasonal percentile for
ERCs, and winds are expected to be in the 15-20 MPH range (gusting
to 25 MPH). Given the duration and intensity of these conditions,
Elevated highlights have been maintained, with locally Critical
conditions possible with the most intense surface winds.
...West-Central High Plains...
Dry and windy conditions will persist across eastern Colorado and
Wyoming into western Kansas and Nebraska. Relative humidity as low
as 10-20%, combined with winds of 25-30 MPH (gusting to 40 MPH) may
pose some localized fire-weather concerns. Though fuels do appear to
be receptive, surface temperatures ranging from the low 20s to low
30s F should limit ignition potential and preclude any additional
highlights.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 171938
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...West/Central Texas into Far Southern Oklahoma...
A dry, west-southwesterly flow will commence Sunday across northern
TX and southern OK as a surface high pressure feature advances
southward into southern TX, while a surface trough stretches into
the Central Plains from the Upper Midwest. The resultant increased
pressure gradient should yield sustained west-southwest winds of
around 15 mph largely over northern TX and southern OK. Considerably
warmer, downslope-influenced temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s F
across much of western TX coupled with a residual dry, post-frontal
boundary layer, will support minimum RH values in the 10-20% range
across this region. Elevated highlights were generally expanded,
particularly into southern OK, with locally critical conditions
possible across portions of northwest TX where west-southwest winds
reach 20 mph at times Sunday afternoon.
..Williams.. 01/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated Sunday as
west-southwesterly surface flow develops across portions of Texas
and Oklahoma owing to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast.
...West/Central Texas into Far Southern Oklahoma...
Widespread downslope west-southwesterly winds across west/central
Texas will result in warm and dry conditions across much of the
area, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Sustained winds
of 15-20 MPH (gusting to 25 MPH) are forecast, overlapping fuels
that are more than receptive to wildfire ignition and spread. At
least Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with locally
Critical conditions possible with intermittent periods of stronger
surface winds.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 172137
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad, upper-level troughing pattern should persist across the
eastern U.S. through the middle of next week, ushering in several
cold fronts into the central and southern Plains, where dry
conditions and pockets of receptive fuels remain. Pronounced ridging
aloft will support dry and anomalously warm conditions across much
of the Intermountain West through Day 5/Thursday. Longer term
ensemble guidance shows a breakdown of the ridge across the western
U.S./northeast Pacific by late week, that could promote better
opportunities for Pacific moisture intrusion into the West by the
weekend.
...Day 4/Tuesday - Central High Plains...
Increasing west-northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper-level
short wave and lee trough development across the central/northern
High Plains should support enhanced downslope drying and warming
across southeastern WY and eastern CO Tuesday. However, preceding
light snowfall late Day 2/Sunday into Day 3/Monday across eastern CO
could mitigate overall fire weather impacts.
...Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday...
Surface high pressure is expected to slide into the Southeast/Mid
Atlantic while troughing evolves across the southern High Plains
midweek, promoting better moisture return and subsequent widespread
precipitation across eastern TX and the Lower MS River Valley.
Timing of frontal passages and spatial distribution of dry return
flow events later in the week becomes less certain, particularly
across the southern/central Plains where receptive fuels remain.
This precludes introduction of critical probabilities in the longer
term.
..Williams.. 01/17/2026
|
