ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070649

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A strengthening surface cyclone will continue to transition
   northeastward across south-central Canada on Day 2/Tuesday in tandem
   with a potent mid-level shortwave trough while a second shortwave
   trough ejects eastward across the northern Rockies. This will
   maintain a tightened surface pressure gradient across the northern
   High/Great Plains, with dry, windy conditions supporting another day
   of elevated fire weather concerns across southeastern Montana,
   northern/eastern Wyoming, southwestern South Dakota, and portions of
   the Nebraska Panhandle.

   ...Southeastern Montana into northern/eastern Wyoming and the Black
   Hills vicinity...
   The lingering tightened surface pressure gradient and overlying
   strong mid-level flow will encourage dry, westerly downslope flow,
   with sustained winds of 15-25 mph. While 700 mb flow is forecast to
   be weaker, occasional gusts to 30-35 mph may still be possible amid
   deep boundary layer mixing. Minimum RH values are also forecast to
   be lower compared to Day 1/Monday (largely within the 10-25% range);
   however, latest guidance suggests that the lowest RH values may tend
   to be displaced farther eastward from the strongest surface winds.
   Nevertheless, this overlap of wind/RH conditions and receptive fuels
   will support elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon, with
   locally critical conditions potentially developing where stronger
   surface winds overlap the lowest RH values. Locally elevated
   conditions may also manifest across adjacent areas of southwestern
   Wyoming and northern South Dakota where dry and breezy conditions
   are forecast. More marginal fuel receptiveness precludes further
   expansion of the Elevated highlights at this time, however.

   A secondary cold front progressing through the region will also
   bring a shift to more northerly winds, with this change potentially
   happening prior to 00 UTC across southeast Montana and northeast
   Wyoming. Winds should then largely weaken by the 03-06 UTC period as
   the cold front continues to progress south-southeastward.

   ..Chalmers.. 09/07/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062143

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

   Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

   ...Discussion...
   An upper shortwave trough will eject from the Intermountain West
   into the Upper Midwest early this week, allowing high pressure to
   retrograde into the western CONUS through Day 4/Wednesday.
   Meanwhile, persistent ridging over the southern Plains will continue
   to promote above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the
   forecast period, although accompanied by relatively light surface
   winds. Predictability wanes beyond Day 6/Friday with disagreement in
   extended ensemble guidance on the evolution of the upper pattern --
   particularly with eastern Pacific troughing and the remnants of
   Hurricane Marie. However, members are generally in agreement for
   another shortwave trough to sag into the Pacific Northwest from
   British Columbia on Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday, increasing dry
   southwesterly flow over the northern Great Basin. Fuels are expected
   to remain marginal (60-80th percentile ERCs), thus hindering broader
   fire concerns.

   As the aforementioned upper trough translates eastward on Day
   3/Tuesday, strong southwesterly flow aloft should allow dry and
   breezy conditions to continue across the north-central states. 40%
   Critical probabilities have been maintained across parts of the
   northern Plains on Day 3/Tuesday where RH values of less than 20%
   and sustained winds of 15-20 mph will overlap rainfall-neglected
   fuels (and forecast ERCs remain at the 80-95th percentiles). On Days
   4-6/Wednesday-Friday, dry and locally breezy conditions will
   continue across southern Wyoming, although displaced from the most
   receptive fuels.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/06/2026