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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 140556
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over the Four Corners region will send an eastward
progressing cold front into western NM today. High elevation snow is
likely in southwestern to central CO with precipitation chances
spreading into the central Plains as the trough lifts over northern
CO. Farther west, an offshore gradient will begin to develop this
afternoon in southern CA, increasing east/northeast sustained winds
to 15-20 mph amid 15-20% RH in terrain-favored gaps of western
L.A./Ventura/Santa Barbara counties; thus, locally elevated fire
weather conditions are possible where pockets of dry fuels exist.
The pressure gradient will strengthen late in the forecast period
(early Thursday morning) leading into an offshore wind event on Day
2/Thursday.
Meanwhile, high pressure will transition over the Southeast,
transporting rich Gulf moisture into the southern Plains and Ozarks.
As a result, anomalously high PWATs ranging from 1.8-2.2" and
afternoon large scale ascent will promote areas of heavy rainfall
along a sagging cold front. This system is expected to provide
relief to drying fuels across the region, especially to areas
categorized by extreme to exceptional drought.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/14/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 140605
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over the central Plains will weaken and transition
to an open wave, quickly becoming absorbed within defined troughing
over the Upper Midwest on Day 2/Thursday. Meanwhile, a cutoff low
will detach into the Desert Southwest as ridging amplifies over the
Pacific Northwest. As a result, an increasing offshore pressure
gradient will promote an elevated fire weather threat for portions
of southern CA that have not seen recent rainfall.
...Southern California...
Offshore winds and fire weather impacts will increase across
southern CA as a mid-level cutoff low approaches the Baja Peninsula,
placing east-northeast flow over the region. East-northeast
sustained winds of 15-25 mph (gusts of 30-50 mph in valleys,
possibly up to 60 mph in the mountains) amid RH as low as 10% are
expected to begin Day 2/Thursday morning in western L.A. and Ventura
counties. Localized critical fire weather conditions are possible in
wind-prone corridors, but forecast ERCs only in the 60-70th
percentile range should attenuate broader impacts. Poor overnight
humidity recoveries are expected with persisting strong winds,
yielding continued fire weather impacts into Day 3/Friday. Elevated
highlights were introduced where rainfall-neglected fuels may be
receptive to new fire starts.
On the northern periphery of the mid-level low over southern CA,
easterly winds aloft will contribute to periods of gusty surface
winds amid 10-15% RH in the Sacramento Valley. North to east winds
in the valley and adjacent foothills may approach 10-15 mph, perhaps
up to 20 mph in terrain-favored areas, promoting locally elevated
fire weather conditions. Stronger wind gusts of 30-40 mph are
expected in the higher elevation Sierra; however, modest RH should
alleviate broader fire weather concerns.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/14/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132157
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
An mid/upper low will translate northeastward into the Central
Plains by Day 3/Thursday before merging with a upper trough that
will push over the Northeast by Day 4/Friday. Ridging to the north
of an evolving upper-level cut off low over Baja California and an
increasing offshore pressure gradient at the surface will promote a
fire weather threat across portions of southern CA Days
3-4/Thursday-Friday. A strong cold front will usher in a drier
continental air mass into much of the eastern U.S. through the
weekend. Dry, post-frontal northerly flow could support a fire
weather threat across the lower MS River Valley on Friday. The next
upper trough could impact the western CONUS by Day 7/Monday or Day
8/Tuesday bringing additional precipitation to the West, which would
mitigate fire weather concerns across the region.
...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday - Southern California...
Offshore winds and fire weather impacts will increase across
Southern California as surface high pressure shifts into the
Intermountain West Thursday and the Great Plains by Friday. Support
aloft will also be present as a mid-level cutoff low over Baja
California evolves through Friday aiding in deep layer
east-northeast flow across the region. East-northeast winds of 15-25
mph along with RH as low as 10% are expected Thursday across western
L.A. and Ventura counties. Critical fire weather conditions are
possible in wind-prone corridors but forecast ERCs only in the
60-70th percentile range should attenuate these weather impacts.
Although higher RH is expected Friday along with potential cloud
cover, stronger winds of 20-30 mph (with higher winds and gusts in
favored terrain gaps) will continue to promote a fire weather threat
across southern CA. The offshore pressure gradient decreases over
the weekend allowing some onshore influence to return and diminish
broader fire weather concerns across southern CA. Only minor changes
to the Thursday and Friday 40% probability areas were needed based
on latest model guidance consensus.
...Day 4/Friday - Lower Mississippi Valley...
Dry, post-frontal northerly flow in the presence of receptive fuels
will likely present a fire weather concern for several hours on
Friday. North winds of up to 15 mph coupled with RH reductions near
25% are expected. Appreciable midweek rainfall appears more likely
over northeastern AR and western TN where 40% critical probabilities
were removed. Additional reductions may be necessary with future
forecast issuances based on final rainfall distribution.
..Williams.. 10/13/2026
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