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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 160704
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN L.A. COUNTY...VENTURA
COUNTY...AND SOUTHEASTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper low will remain positioned just west of the northern
Baja Peninsula within a broader upper-level ridge over the western
U.S. In conjunction with a strong surface high pressure system (1044
mb per the 03 UTC WPC surface analysis) moving into the central
Great Plains, this upper low will continue to support dry, offshore
flow and elevated to critical fire weather conditions across
portions of California today. To the east, a robust upper-level
trough will pivot eastward across the eastern U.S., with an
attendant surface low deepening as it progresses northeastward
across the St. Lawrence River Valley and a strong cold front
advancing across the East/Southeast. Strong post-frontal flow in the
wake of this cold front will bring elevated fire weather concerns to
portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley and ArkLaTex today.
...Southern California...
A closed mid/upper low will aid in the maintenance of deep-layer
east-northeasterly flow across much of southern California, which
will continue to support an offshore wind event and elevated to
critical fire weather conditions today. A corridor of sustained
east-northeasterly 20-30 mph surface winds with gusts up to 50-60
mph (occasionally higher in terrain-favored and exposed elevated
areas) is forecast across western L.A, Ventura, and southeastern
Santa Barbara counties, with a peak during the late morning/early
afternoon hours before gradually diminishing beginning later this
afternoon. With minimum RH values likely dropping to near 15%
(locally lower), this will favor a critical fire weather threat.
Elevated to locally critical conditions are also expected farther
west towards the central CA coast where RH reductions to 15% and
sustained easterly winds of 15-20 mph are expected.
...Sierra Nevada, Sacramento Valley into the North Bay area...
Residual easterly/northeasterly downslope winds of 10-15 mph
(locally up to 20 mph) are expected today across the western slopes
of the Sierra Nevada. Poor overnight humidity recoveries are
observed as of 0600 UTC, with RH values noted to range from 15-25%
across portions of the western slopes. RH values should further
decrease to near 10% today. Coupled with receptive fuels and the
breezy east-northeast winds, this will help maintain an elevated
fire weather threat across this region today. North-northeast winds
of 10-15 mph and minimum RH values of 10-15% will also bring
elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Sacramento Valley,
Napa Valley, and North Bay areas today.
...Lower Mississippi River Valley and ArkLaTex Region...
A strong surface high pressure system will build into the central
Plains today in the wake of the passage of a substantial surface
cold front advancing across the East/Southeast. The resultant
surface pressure gradient between these two features will favor
sustained northerly winds of 10-15 mph (with occasional gusts up to
around 30-35 mph possible) across portions of the lower Mississippi
River Valley and ArkLaTex within the dry, post-frontal air mass.
With RH reductions as low as ~25% over receptive fuels (ERCs up to
the 80-90th percentiles), elevated fire weather conditions are
expected for at least a few hours this afternoon. While RH will
improve into the overnight hours, gusty surface winds are expected
to continue into Saturday morning. Only a minor southward expansion
to the existing elevated area was made with this update.
..Chalmers.. 10/16/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 160704
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will remain positioned to the southwest of
Southern California on D2/Saturday as upper-level ridging begins to
shift eastward into the Plains. This will foster residual offshore
flow and lingering elevated fire weather conditions across portions
of Southern California Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a strong cold
front will continue to progress offshore of the East Coast as
surface high pressure shifts into the Ohio Valley, helping to
maintain dry and breezy post-frontal conditions and elevated fire
weather concerns across portions of the lower MS Valley.
...Southern California...
A closed mid-level low will remained positioned west of the northern
Baja Peninsula, which will help maintain residual easterly offshore
flow into D2/Saturday. Generally easterly surface winds of 10-20 mph
(locally greater) are forecast Saturday morning before magnitudes
begin to weaken Saturday afternoon. With RH values likely to remain
around 15-20% during the morning hours, this will continue to
support elevated fire weather conditions Sunday morning across the
Simi Valley and Sierra Madre/San Rafael ranges.
...Lower Mississippi River Valley...
A dry and breezy post-frontal pattern will continue across portions
of the lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast on Saturday as
surface high pressure shifts into the Ohio River Valley to the
north. North-northeast winds of 10-15 mph and minimum daytime RH
values around 25% are expected atop dry, receptive fuels (ERCs
commonly above the 80-90th percentiles) across portions of the lower
Mississippi River Valley, fostering elevated fire weather conditions
from southern LA into southeastern AR and much of western/central
MS.
..Chalmers.. 10/16/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 152109
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0409 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
Offshore winds aided by a mid/upper low west of Baja California and
surface high pressure across the central U.S. will continue into at
least the morning hours of D3/Saturday across portions of southern
CA. Northerly flow within a dry, post-frontal air mass will likely
bring a fire weather threat to the lower MS River Valley region
D3/Saturday. Potential for significant fire weather diminishes
D4/Sunday across CONUS as offshore winds decrease across southern CA
with weakening winds over the lower MS River valley as high pressure
shifts towards the Mid Atlantic. Mid-range guidance suggests a
stronger upper-level trough moving into the western U.S. early next
week bringing a period of dry and breezy conditions to northeastern
CA and adjacent northwestern Great Basin.
...Day 3/Saturday...
...Southern California...
Residual offshore easterly flow will continue through the morning
hours across portions of southern CA Saturday. East to northeast
winds of 10-20 mph and low RH will sustain the ongoing fire weather
threat through Saturday morning before lighter winds emerge by
Saturday afternoon and evening. A 40% critical probability area
continues for the Simi Valley area as well as the Sierra Madre and
San Rafael ranges.
...Lower Mississippi River Valley...
Fire weather concerns will shift southward from the ArkLaTex region
into the lower MS River Valley by Saturday under a dry, post-frontal
pattern. A consistent north-northeast wind of 10-15 mph along with
minimum daytime RH values near 25% are expected where fuels will be
quite receptive, including along the Gulf Coast of LA. Only a minor
north and eastward expansion of the 40% critical probability area
was needed.
...Day 5/Monday...
...Northeastern California and Northwest Great Basin...
A robust mid/upper trough could bring increasing southwesterly flow
back into the western U.S. by early next week. Dry and breezy
conditions in advance of the trough will promote an increasing fire
weather threat over northeastern CA, far southern OR and far
northwestern NV D5/Monday where fuels remain dry in the absence of
recent precipitation. Thus, 40% critical probabilities have been
added to highlight the potential for fire weather impacts.
..Williams.. 10/15/2026
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