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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 221549
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
Valid 221700Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Despite good
overnight humidity recoveries across portions of the High Plains,
widespread surface RH is decreasing rapidly as temperatures rise and
deeper mixing into a dry airmass aloft ensues. Along the lee of the
Rockies into central MT, surface observations depict poor overnight
humidity recoveries have resulted in widespread 15-25 percent RH
this morning. High cloud cover east of the Divide will slowly clear
out late this morning before more spotty clouds build in this
evening. However, as the surface low strengthens across eastern MT,
strong surface winds and a deepening dry airmass aloft will continue
to support critically low RH atop very dry fuels. A 700 mb 50-70 kt
jet will develop east of the Laramie range through southwestern SD
this evening as the surface low strengthens, dragging a cold front
across the central Plains tonight. Strong west-northwesterly winds
of 20-30 mph will continue behind the front east of the Laramie
Range into the NE Panhandle with RH only increasing to 30-50
percent. These conditions will likely persist through nearly the
entire overnight period, further exacerbating the fire environment.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
A robust and progressive upper-level trough will move into the
Northern Rockies through today with an associated strong mid-level
jet stretching from the southern Great Basin to the Northern Plains.
An incipient lee surface low will deepen across eastern MT, while
strengthening lee troughing extends southward into the central and
southern High Plains. The broad southwest flow aloft and surface
troughing will support a expansive fire weather threat across much
of High Plains. Ascent ahead of the upper trough will aid in high
based thunderstorm development along a dry line across portions of
the Central Plains.
...Southwest and portions of the High Plains...
A broad fire weather concern is still expected across portions of
the Southwest and High Plains corridor. The approaching mid-level
trough and related jet along with strengthening lee surface
troughing amid dry and breezy conditions will promote Critical fire
weather conditions across much of the High Plains, with a more
expansive Elevated fire weather concern into the northern High
Plains and Upper Midwest. The strongest southwest winds of 25-30 mph
will be focused across WY and southeastern MT, more coincident with
the mid-level jet max. Southwest winds of 20-25 mph along the
central and southern High Plains are expected by this afternoon
while downslope trajectories yield single digit RH values atop very
dry and still dormant fuels. Critical fire weather highlights were
maintained for this region with a locally Extremely Critical fire
weather threat, including 30+ mph winds with higher gusts, possible
in favored terrain gaps of the CO Front Range.
...North-central Nebraska into central South Dakota...
Increasing southerly winds approaching 30 mph by mid afternoon
attributed to a deepening surface trough are expected across
portions of NE Sandhills northward into central SD. Delayed boundary
layer moisture return should result in critically low RH of 10-15%
by peak afternoon heating. These conditions combined with very
receptive fuels will promote several hours of critical fire weather
conditions through the early afternoon. Initial influx of
thunderstorms could produce strong to locally severe wind gusts late
this afternoon, before improving conditions including potential for
wetting rains move into the area this evening.
...Far southwestern South Dakota, western Nebraska, far eastern
Colorado and western KS...
Isolated high based thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
portions of the central Plains stretching southward from
southwestern SD almost to the OK Panhandle. The incoming upper
trough and associated ascent and convergence along the dry line
should allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop by early
afternoon. Deeper boundary layer moisture will reside across the
Southern Plains with precipitable water values of 0.50"-0.70" just
east of the dry line supporting only minimal precipitation as
thunderstorms propagate eastward through the evening. Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm highlights were extended farther south into far
southeastern CO and western KS based on latest forecast guidance.
...Piedmont and portions of Mid Atlantic...
West to southwest winds ahead of a cold front will affect portions
of the Mid Atlantic and Piedmont today where fuels remain critically
dry. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph along with RH falling into the 20-25%
during the afternoon will yield elevated fire weather concerns for
southern VA, much of NC and northern SC. An embedded mid-level wave
within broader northwest flow and modest 850 mb northwest winds will
enhance downslope drying in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains in
western NC, resulting in RH of around 15% in some areas by peak
afternoon heating.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 221913
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...Afternoon Update...
Minor expansions were made to the Elevated and Critical highlights
based on high resolution guidance. Otherwise, the previous forecast
remains on track. Over the southern Plains, the dryline is not
expected to retreat west of the Caprock overnight Day 1/Wednesday
into Day 2/Thursday, likely producing poor overnight humidity
recoveries for the western half of the TX Panhandle into eastern NM.
A 700-850 mb jet will strengthen from eastern NM into the TX
Panhandle Thursday afternoon as a surface low develops over southern
KS and northwestern OK. Minimal cloud cover should yield better
boundary layer mixing, allowing for RH of less than 10 percent and
sustained westerly winds up to 25 mph. Locally extremely critical
conditions may arise in gap-flow regions of southeastern CO and
terrain-favored areas from eastern CO into the western TX Panhandle
where 30 mph sustained winds and RH in the single digits superimpose
very dry fuels.
Dry post frontal winds will traverse the High Plains where IsoDryT
highlights existed on Day 1/Wednesday. An Elevated fire weather
threat exists where any ongoing wildfires and/or holdovers from
lightning ignitions emerge as a result of a prolonged fire
environment. See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough and associated mid level jet will eject into central
U.S. Thursday while a surface trough and cold front push farther
east into the Upper Midwest and central Plains. More significant
fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern Plains,
south of an advancing cold front where a corridor of strong
southwest winds, critically low RH and receptive fuels align to
bring Critical fire weather conditions to the region.
...Southern and Central Plains...
The pronounced 60-70 knot mid-level jet at the base of an upper
trough entering the Southwest and Southern Plains, in addition to
continued surface troughing farther east, will promote intense
downslope drying and strong west to southwest winds across much of
eastern NM and northwest TX Thursday where Critical Highlights were
maintained. West to southwest winds of 20-25 mph, RH near or below
10% and dry fuels will align to bring a critical fire weather threat
to the region. Farther north, dry post-frontal northwest winds, with
some downslope enhancement in areas adjacent to CO Front Range will
support an elevated fire weather threat for portions of the Central
Plains to include eastern CO, much of NE and western KS.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 222112
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A large scale upper trough will persist over the central U.S. and
Canada border through Day 5/Sunday. Upper ridging across the eastern
U.S. will begin to flatten on Day 3/Friday transitioning to fairly
zonal flow through the weekend. Much of the Piedmont into the
Southeast will remain fairly dry until a low-amplitude trough enters
the southwestern U.S on Day 4/Saturday and traverses the High Plains
early next week. This pattern change could bring some relief to the
central/southern Plains into portions of the Southeast Day
5/Sunday-Day 7/Tuesday. However, in areas that do not see
appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns are expected to linger.
Towards the end of the forecast period, an additional low-amplitude
trough is forecast to move onshore the southwestern CONUS. Given the
overall pattern, fire weather conditions should persist where fuels
remain receptive.
...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday...
As upper troughing persists across the northern U.S., strong zonal
flow over the Southwest will promote very breezy and continued dry
conditions this weekend. With preceding days of fire weather
conditions, strong westerly downslope flow and critically low RH
atop very dry fuels will further exacerbate the fire environment,
supportive of 40% Critical probabilities across portions of the
southern Plains into the Southwest on Day 3/Friday and Day
4/Saturday.
A strong mid-level disturbance is forecast to cross over the High
Plains on Day 5/Sunday, resulting in lee cyclogenesis over portions
of western KS and northwestern OK. Behind an emerging dryline,
westerly downslope flow is expected to promote very strong winds and
critically low RH overlapping a dry fuelscape. Both 40% and 70%
Critical probabilities have been maintained over the southern Plains
and parts of West TX to encompass the expansive fire weather threat.
As the upper trough shifts east across the Midwest, a dry airmass
will persist over eastern AZ into NM early next week. While a brief
reprieve in winds is forecast for the Southwest on Day 6/Monday,
breezy conditions may return in advance of an approaching secondary
upper trough. Guidance ambiguity precludes the introduction of
probabilities at this time, however, highlights may be introduced in
future outlooks as a result of the overall upper pattern.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/22/2026
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