ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111941

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   A dry, post-frontal northwest flow regime is still expected to bring
   a broad fire weather threat to portions of the northern/central
   Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 2/Tuesday. A swath of stronger
   sustained northwest winds between 15 and 25 mph will impact the
   eastern Dakotas into southwestern MN. However, this corridor of
   stronger winds will be displaced to the east of a warmer, drier
   boundary layer across the northern and central High Plains where
   afternoon RH reductions below 20% will be more common. Nonetheless,
   the breezy northwest winds and very dry fuels (ERC values in the
   95-99th percentile) should support an elevated fire weather concern
   for much of the Dakotas, southwest MN into northeastern NE and
   northwestern IA. Additionally, some green up of fuels could mitigate
   the otherwise Critical fire weather threat across eastern
   NE/northwestern IA.

   ..Williams.. 05/11/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   On the backside of a robust midlevel trough and attendant surface
   low moving eastward from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest
   and eventually the Great Lakes, strong deep-layer northwesterly flow
   will overspread a well-mixed post-frontal air mass over the
   upper/middle MO Valley during the day. While RH reductions will be
   modest in the post-frontal air mass (around 25-30 percent), 20-25
   mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will
   compensate and support elevated to locally critical fire-weather
   conditions -- given dry/receptive fuels. If guidance trends any
   lower with RH reductions, a targeted Critical area could eventually
   be warranted.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112205

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0505 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

   Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A potent mid-level trough will move into the northwestern U.S. on
   Day 3/Wednesday while an amplifying upper trough and corresponding
   surface low move into the Northeast. A deep lee surface trough
   evolves across the northern and central High Plains in response to a
   mid-level wave ejecting into the northern Plains on Wednesday,
   bringing enhanced downslope westerly flow to the central and
   southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday. Fire weather concerns
   continue across portions of the Northern Plains Day 5/Friday as dry,
   northwest flow in the wake of a cold front impacts the region. The
   active wave pattern across the northern CONUS with deeper boundary
   layer moisture in place could support more widespread and much
   needed rainfall across the Upper Midwest beginning Day 5/Friday and
   over the weekend. 

   ...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
   ...Eastern Great Basin into Upper/Lower Colorado River Basin...
   A robust mid-level wave will push through the Pacific Northwest Day
   3/Wednesday. Stronger southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough and
   resultant deepening surface troughing across the northern Great
   Basin is expected to bring fire weather concerns to considerable
   portions of the Intermountain West. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph
   amid low RH and drying fuels under successive days of abnormally
   high temperatures should promote a fairly broad fire weather threat
   across the eastern Great Basin, northern AZ and CO Plateau.
   Increasing mid-level Pacific moisture across the Intermountain West,
   arrival of the upper trough into the western U.S. and daytime
   instability should allow for high-based convection along higher
   terrain of the Upper CO River Basin, Four Corners and into western
   NM where more receptive fuels reside. Both critical probability
   areas for impactful dry and breezy conditions and dry thunderstorms
   were expanded across this region.

   ...Upper Snake River Plain and Southwest Montana...
   Southwest winds of 20-25 mph across eastern ID, with terrain
   enhanced winds closer 30-45 mph (with higher gusts) in southwest MT
   are expected Day 3/Wednesday as the sharp upper trough and
   associated mid-level jet shifts overhead. Dry boundary layer
   conditions amid a drying fuelscape combined with the stronger
   southwest flow will enhance fire weather concerns across the Upper
   Snake River Plain and southwest MT, where 40% critical probabilities
   have been introduced.

   ...Northern Montana...
   Fuels remain quite receptive across northern MT where delayed green
   up has been noted. A rapidly evolving lee low in the southern
   Canadian Prairies will promote a dry return flow pattern across the
   northern High Plains where 40% critical probabilities were
   maintained. Fast moving, high based showers and thunderstorms are
   expected across central and northern MT Wednesday afternoon as broad
   ascent materializes ahead of the pronounced short wave trough across
   the Pacific Northwest. Limited precipitation with fast moving
   thunderstorms could bring a few ignitions to northern MT where fuels
   are more receptive, where a 10% dry thunderstorm probability area
   was warranted. Strong westerly winds behind a cold front could
   impact holdover ignitions on Day 4/Thursday where 40% critical
   probabilities were introduced across southeastern MT into portions
   of western ND/SD.

   ...Day 5/Friday - Northern Plains...
   Fire weather concerns may linger across portions of the Northern
   Plains on Day 5/Friday with dry, post-frontal west/northwest flow in
   place, but forecast uncertainty remains precluding introduction of
   critical probabilities at this time.

   ..Williams.. 05/11/2026