ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150644

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Along the northeastern periphery of an upper ridge over the West, a
   midlevel trough and accompanying 70-80-kt speed max will advance
   southeastward across the Northwest and northern Rockies on Tuesday.
   In response, a surface low will deepen while advancing
   east-southeastward across the northern Plains.

   ...Northern Intermountain West...
   On the southern edge of the robust midlevel speed max, strong
   deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will overspread a warm/dry air
   mass during the afternoon. This, combined with a tightening pressure
   gradient, will result in 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds
   amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH. Given increasingly dry/receptive
   fuels across the region, elevated to locally critical fire-weather
   conditions are expected. In particular, locally critical conditions
   are most likely in the gap-flow areas through the Cascades and the
   Snake River Plain. However, these conditions appear too localized
   for Critical highlights at this time. 

   ...Eastern Great Basin into the Rockies and adjacent Plains...
   Despite relatively weaker midlevel flow compared to areas north and
   northwest, at least moderate midlevel flow will promote an expansive
   area of breezy/gusty west-northwesterly surface winds across the
   region. These breezy/gusty winds coupled with single-digit to
   lower-teens RH will yield broad elevated fire-weather conditions
   during the afternoon. Stronger deep-layer flow in closer proximity
   to the midlevel speed max will favor stronger sustained surface
   winds (around 20-25 mph) over parts of southern WY, where locally
   critical conditions are possible. Locally critical conditions will
   also be possible in terrain-favored areas throughout the Elevated
   area.

   ..Weinman.. 06/15/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142148

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0448 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad upper-level troughing will persist across the northeastern
   CONUS through late next week as an upper low remains anchored over
   the southern Ontario/Quebec regions. An upper-level ridge will
   flatten over the Pacific Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday, eventually
   breaking down and shifting eastward over the central CONUS as a
   trough moves onshore the West Coast by Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday.
   Consequently, some isolated dry thunderstorm potential alongside dry
   and breezy conditions with above normal temperatures (and resultant
   dry fuels) will support expansive fire concerns through the
   remainder of the forecast period. While timing differences in
   various NWP guidance currently precludes the introduction of
   critical probabilities past Day 6/Friday, highlights may be needed
   in future outlook cycles as details become better resolved. 

   ...Days 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Parts of the Intermountain West...
   Well above normal surface temperatures will occur under the upper
   ridge through early next week, with record high temperatures
   forecast to be met or exceeded in portions of the Pacific Northwest
   and along the West Coast. This anomalous, but short-lived, heat wave
   is expected to further dry dead fuels over much of the western CONUS
   - significantly so over the Pacific Northwest. 

   As the ridge dampens, robust northwesterly flow aloft should foster
   breezy surface winds amid pre-existing warm and dry conditions.
   Thus, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained across eastern
   Washington and southeastern Oregon on Day 3/Tuesday where fire
   weather conditions will overlap a vast region of cured grasses. As
   robust northwesterly flow aloft overspreads the central Rockies and
   a dry cold front traverses the central Plains, heightened fire
   concerns reemerge as ERCs approach the 90-95th percentile. 40%
   Critical probabilities have been maintained across the region on Day
   3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday, though spatial extent may be adjusted
   in future outlooks with updated guidance and fuel progression. A
   residual dry airmass will persist across the Southwest and Great
   Basin on Day 5/Thursday, however weaker flow precludes the
   introduction of probabilities at this time.

   As the upper ridge breaks down, upper-level troughing will move
   onshore the West Coast by the end of this week. Above normal
   temperatures are forecast across the Pacific Northwest on Day
   6/Friday ahead of a southward progressing cold front, which should
   bring increasing mid-level moisture and chances for thunderstorms.
   Given preceding days of warm and dry conditions and coincident
   curing fuels, the isolated nature of thunderstorm potential could
   pose a threat for lightning ignitions across a very dry environment.
   As a result, 10% probabilities for Dry Thunderstorms have been
   introduced across the southern Cascades and northern Great Basin.
   These conditions may persist overnight and into Day 7/Saturday,
   however there is too much uncertainty in coverage and the transition
   to wetting rainfall, precluding additional probabilities for now.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/14/2026