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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 131623
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Today's fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the
previous discussion below for more information - including the
potential for brief/spotty elevated fire weather conditions across
the central/southern High Plains.
..Elliott.. 12/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025/
...Synopsis...
The upper trough in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will amplify
today as it moves toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. This will help
drive colder air into the Plains. Ahead of the colder air, a modest
surface low will develop and evolve southward within the central and
southern High Plains. There will be brief potential for dry/breezy
conditions that may approach elevated criteria locally. Given the
short duration of these conditions and the generally unreceptive
fuels, no highlights are warranted.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 131855
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Tomorrow's (Sunday) fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please
see the previous discussion below for more information.
..Elliott.. 12/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025/
...Synopsis...
The upper trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on
Sunday into Monday morning. The upper ridge in the West will expand
into the Plains. A surface high pressure system will move
southeastward and a cold front will move through much of the Gulf.
Locally dry and windy conditions are possible in eastern Wyoming.
Poor fuel receptiveness will preclude much in the way of fire
weather concerns. Though temperatures will be cool/cold in the
Southeast, gusty northerly winds and modest RH reductions will be
possible. Recent precipitation in the past week has left fuel
receptiveness marginal at best. This, along with the marginal
temperatures, should preclude fire weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132121
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to weaken Day 3/Monday over the
Southwest with a shift toward a zonal flow pattern across much of
the CONUS Day 4/Tuesday through the end of next week. This
upper-level regime will support relatively cool conditions with
periodic precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Meanwhile, dry conditions
are expected across much of the southern Plains and the Southwest
with little-to-no precipitation and above normal surface
temperatures.
...Central/Southern Plains...
A gradual increase in fire weather conditions is expected this week
across portions of the central/southern Plains as persistent dry and
relatively warm conditions remain in place. While fuels are only
marginally receptive at this time across these areas, an increase in
fuel readiness is expected through this week amidst the dry/warm
conditions.
Periodic lee cyclone strengthening this week should foster at least
locally Elevated fire weather conditions most days amidst dry/breezy
winds. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest the greatest potential
for widespread Elevated (and potentially Critical) conditions is Day
5/Wednesday and/or Day 6/Thursday as a strong lee cyclone develops
over the northern Plains. While fire weather highlights may be
needed in a future outlook, at this time the probability for
Critical conditions at any location remains less than 40% due to
lingering run-to-run model variability.
..Elliott.. 12/13/2025
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