ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220503

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1203 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level troughing will continue across the eastern U.S. on Day
   2/Thursday as surface high pressure builds in across the Ohio Valley
   behind a southward progressing cold front. A long-lived upper ridge
   across the Pacific Northwest will finally begin to flatten and break
   down owing to an approaching eastern Pacific upper trough. 

   ...Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies...
   As upper-level flow transitions from broadly southerly to
   southwesterly, monsoonal moisture will be shunted northeastward as a
   dry airmass returns to the Inland Northwest. Daytime
   destabilization, ample mid-level moisture, and fast storm motions
   over the Columbia Basin into the Northern Rockies will promote
   isolated wet/dry thunderstorms. In addition, preceding days of hot
   and dry conditions have further exacerbated the fuelscape, leading
   to widespread 90-95th percentile ERCs. As upper level flow
   strengthens and impinges upon the Northwest, tightening pressure
   gradients along the Cascades will promote very gusty winds amid a
   very dry boundary layer. Elevated highlights have been introduced
   where RH values should decline to less than 20% as winds increase to
   15-20 mph (localized gusts up to 35 mph in terrain-favored areas).
   Greater concern for new ignitions and impacts to ongoing fires exist
   where the Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights overlap.

   ...Carolinas...
   Residual dry and breezy conditions will continue across the
   Carolinas ahead of a slow approaching cold front. At peak heating,
   RH values will decline to 30-40 percent as southwesterly winds
   increase to 15 mph amid 80-90th percentile ERCs. Scattered to
   widespread thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are expected across the
   region as the front pushes through, bringing relief to the fuelscape
   and alleviating broader fire concerns.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/22/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212139

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0439 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   Upper-level troughing will move into the Pacific Northwest with
   stronger southwest to westerly flow aloft across the northwest US
   starting Day 3/Thursday and continuing through the weekend. The
   upper low will likely remain off the coast until this weekend, but
   forecast guidance remains uncertain regarding its track and timing.
   An upper high will remain in the vicinity of the Four Corners into
   the weekend, with daily monsoonal thunderstorms likely continuing
   across the region. 

   As upper-level troughing begins to move into the Northwest, isolated
   to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across
   central/eastern Washington, eastern Oregon, and western/north Idaho
   into northwest Montana Day 3/Thursday. Residual subtropical moisture
   will maintain PWAT values of 0.75-1.1", but storm motions of 20-30
   knots, a dry sub cloud layer, and receptive fuels will result in
   lightning ignitions. Dry and breezy conditions will also develop
   during the afternoon and evening from central/eastern Washington
   extending south into northeast California and northwest Nevada as
   the onshore pressure gradient tightens and stronger winds aloft
   arrive that can mix to the surface. 

   With an onshore pressure gradient, surface pressure troughing
   extending from eastern Washington to southwest Idaho, and 40-65 knot
   mid-level flow, breezy west-southwest winds will develop across the
   Inland Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and the northern Rockies
   onto the northern Plains Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday and possibly
   Day 6/Sunday. Drier air will move across this region as well, with
   elevated to locally critical conditions expected. These dry and
   breezy conditions will follow lightning likely resulting in
   holdovers and growth on existing wildfires, especially active large
   wildfires. 

   Forecast guidance remains mixed on identifying corridors of critical
   conditions, which precludes introducing 70% area(s) at this time.
   Ensemble forecast guidance (GEFS, ECENS, and NBM) indicates that
   critical winds/RH are likely to develop (> 50% probabilities), but
   these corridors are somewhat narrow and tend to overlap some of the
   areas that have less receptive fuels. However, given the forecast
   pattern, BIs, and Hot-Dry-Windy-Index probabilities, critical
   conditions will likely develop in portions of the 40% areas on Day
   4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday.

   ..Nauslar.. 07/21/2026