ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 101936

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO
   WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

   ...Portions of the Northern and Central Plains...
   No significant changes to the outlook were made. A mid-level short
   wave and attendant 60-70 knot jet max enters the northern High
   Plains Sunday. At the surface, a deepening lee surface trough and
   evolving cold front will translate eastward into Upper Midwest by
   early Tuesday morning. A well mixed boundary layer collocated with
   stronger flow aloft will support a corridor of stronger
   west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph across northeastern MT and western
   ND. These winds aligned with RH minima of 15-25% will support
   critical fire weather conditions amid very dry fuels. Elevated fire
   weather concerns including wind speeds approaching 20 mph from the
   west/northwest will exist across much of the High Plains of Montana
   into western ND surrounding the higher magnitude wind corridor.
   There is a potential for elevated convection across northern ND as
   the surface trough and cold front push into Northern Plains,
   although expected cloud cover could inhibit broader destabilization
   and thus lightning production. 

   South of the cold front, downslope enhanced drying amid deep layer
   westerly flow will affect portions of western SD and northern NE.
   West winds of around 15 mph and RH as low as 10% will promote
   several hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid receptive
   fuels Monday.

   ..Williams.. 05/10/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
   West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 60-70-kt jet streak
   will advance eastward across MT into ND during peak heating. At the
   same time, a related surface low will move eastward from SK into MB
   Canada, while a southward-extending lee trough deepens along the
   northern/central Plains -- before being overtaken by a surface
   front. This large-scale pattern will favor a broad area of elevated
   conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains during
   the afternoon, with critical conditions expected over eastern MT
   into west-central ND.

   ...Northern into the Central Plains...
   Ample diurnal heating and downslope flow trajectories will promote
   deep boundary-layer mixing along and west of the lee trough during
   the afternoon, where upper 70s to lower/middle 80s temperatures and
   15-25 percent RH are expected. Over the northern Plains, a
   combination of a tight pressure gradient and strong deep-layer
   west-northwesterly flow will promote 20-25 mph sustained
   west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25
   percent RH. The greatest overlap of strong surface winds and low RH
   atop critically receptive fuels is expected from eastern MT into
   west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. Farther
   south, a slightly weaker pressure gradient and moderate flow aloft
   will favor 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, with
   10-15 percent RH. Given receptive fuels here as well, elevated to
   locally critical conditions are expected. A north-northwesterly wind
   shift is expected during the evening behind the front, with
   increasing RH and cooling temperatures.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A more active upper-level wave pattern emerges later this week
   across the CONUS. The upper ridge responsible for near record
   setting heat early this week will shift into the central U.S. by
   Thursday, saddled by an amplifying trough across the eastern U.S.
   and another trough moving into the western states Days
   4-5/Wednesday-Thursday, the latter of which will bring broader fire
   weather concerns to a drying fuelscape across the West. Forecast
   uncertainty increases as the weekend approaches with a more diffuse,
   perhaps zonal, pattern returning to the CONUS.

   ...Day 3/Tuesday - Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
   Dry, post-frontal flow in the wake of a deep surface low across the
   Great Lakes will bring a fire weather threat to portions of the
   Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where frontal precipitation is
   minimized and critically dry fuels remain. RH reductions will be
   limited to 20-30% but northwest winds of 15-25 mph over receptive
   fuels, supports a continuation (and slight expansion based on latest
   model guidance) of 40% critical probabilities across the region.

   ...Day 4/Wednesday...
   ...Southern Great Basin and Southwest...
   Fire weather concerns increase across portions of the Southwest and
   Great Basin ahead of an advancing upper trough and attendant
   increasing southwest flow aloft. Advection of mid and upper level
   Pacific moisture and supportive kinematic environment should support
   some high-based showers and thunderstorms across much of the
   Intermountain West on Day 4/Wednesday. A 10% probability area for
   dry thunderstorms has been introduced where fuels are expected to be
   driest, reaching the 90th percentile by midweek under a few days of
   abnormally warm temperatures. Farther west, drier southwest flow
   should impact much of the eastern Great Basin and upper CO River
   Basin regions allowing for a heightened fire weather concern under a
   drying/curing fuelscape. A slight expansion of existing 40% critical
   probabilities has been made into the AZ Strip area.

   ...Northeastern Montana...
   A deepening surface low in the lee of the Northern Rockies will
   promote stronger southerly flow over the northern High Plains on Day
   4/Wednesday. Existing dry fuels amid a southerly dry return flow
   will combine to bring enhanced fire weather concerns to northeastern
   MT, where 40% critical probabilities have been introduced.

   ..Williams.. 05/10/2026