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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 041526
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. As was previously
mentioned, rainfall over portions of Texas yesterday and last night
has dampened any fire weather threat there today. Farther west over
portions of southern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, the
duration, coverage, and magnitude of surface wind is likely to
remain below elevated thresholds according to the latest forecast
guidance. See below for additional details.
..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough and attendant surface low will progress
northeastward across the Great Lakes region today, with upper-level
ridging building across the West. A trailing cold front will
progress east-southeastward across the Mississippi/Ohio River
Valleys and southern Texas, with high pressure building into the
Great Plains. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values
are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns.
...Portions of the Texas Rollings Plains into southern New Mexico
and southeastern Arizona...
High resolution guidance continues to depict the potential for
locally elevated fire weather concerns from portions of the Texas
Rolling Plains into southern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona where
sustained northeasterly to easterly surface winds around 15 mph may
briefly overlap reduced RH below 20%. The best chance for locally
elevated fire weather conditions appears to be across the Lowland
Desert of southwestern New Mexico into the San Simon Valley of
southeastern Arizona where terrain effects may locally enhance
sustained winds amid low RH values of 15-20%. Uncertainty in the
duration and areal extent of winds above 15 mph precludes the
addition of Elevated highlights at this time.
Farther east across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains, recent and
ongoing precipitation is expected to limit widespread fire weather
concerns. Locally elevated conditions will be possible for areas
that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulation over the last 48
hours, however.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 041750
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area, resulting in
slight expansion over portions of southeast Colorado and
south-central New Mexico. As previously mentioned, the uncertainty
of cloud cover prevented expansion any farther south. Fuel
conditions across much of the highlighted and surrounding area of
the southern Plains are some of the driest within the CONUS right
now. Possible expansion to include more of southeast New Mexico will
be monitored with future forecast issuances.
..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will be in place across the West on D2/Sunday,
with longwave upper-level troughing across the Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place
across the central Great Plains while a cold front progresses
eastward across the East Coast and Southeast. A second cold front
will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
A tightened pressure gradient on the western periphery of the
aforementioned surface high will favor sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across much of southern High Plains. This
combination of winds and RH atop dry, receptive fuels should promote
elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours Sunday
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a potential southward
expansion of Elevated highlights; however, uncertainty owing to
greater mid/high cloud cover and more marginal RH values precludes
such an expansion at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 042130
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
Upper-level ridging over the western US will begin to dampen on Day
3/Monday as due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough and significant cold front will be
moving across the Eastern Seaboard, having left accumulated
precipitation across much of the central and eastern US. The second
trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern half
of the CONUS on Day 5/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 6/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 8/Saturday, contributing to
potentially multiple days of precipitation, particularly over
California and the western Great Basin.
...Southern Plains (Day 3/Monday and Day 5/Wednesday)...
Very similar to, but slightly east of, Day 2/Sunday, a tightened
surface pressure gradient will result in sustained south-southwest
winds of 15-20 mph over portions of the southern High Plains. This
combination of wind with afternoon RHs of 10-15%, supports continued
40% probabilities over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and much of
southwest Kansas. Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient
supports south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to
10-15% over portions of the southern High Plains again on Day
5/Wednesday. Much of this region is favored for accumulating
precipitation as the aforementioned low pressure system moves inland
likely late next week.
...Southeast (Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of central and
southern Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and
South Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated
fire weather conditions on Day 4/Tuesday across southern Georgia and
Day 5/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.
However, fuel receptivity remains in question due to preceding
precipitation, especially on Day 2/Sunday and Day 3/Monday.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday)...
While some potential for critical conditions will exist across
portions of the eastern Great Basin and surrounding areas as the
upper-level ridge breaks down on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday,
recent precipitation and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities. While this event will dry fuels across
this region, additional precipitation appears likely with the
aforementioned low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
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