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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 100600
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplifying mid/upper trough will migrate slowly southward across
portions of the Northwest, with strong southwesterly flow aloft
extending from the Great Basin into the northern/central Plains. At
the surface, an initially stationary boundary/slow moving cold front
will extend from Northern California into the northern Great Plains.
Dry and breezy conditions preceding this boundary will promote
elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Great Basin
and central High Plains.
...Sierra Front into central/northern Nevada...
As the aforementioned mid/upper trough digs southward into portions
of the Great Basin, strong southwesterly flow aloft and related,
induced surface pressure falls across the Great Basin will support a
corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph
(locally up to 25 mph) from the Sierra Front into central/northern
Nevada. Higher gusts of up to 35-45 mph (strongest along the Sierra
Front) are also expected within this corridor between the
southeastward-progressing cold front to the northwest and an influx
of greater mid/upper level moisture and cloud cover associated with
the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel to the southeast. Coupled with
downslope drying and boundary layer mixing yielding afternoon RH
reductions to 10-15% and receptive fuels, an elevated fire weather
risk is expected this afternoon from the Sierra Front into
central/northern Nevada. Only minor adjustments were made with this
update based on the latest guidance.
...Eastern Wyoming into far southwestern South Dakota and portions
of the Nebraska Panhandle...
Lee surface troughing and modest southwesterly flow aloft in advance
of the deepening upper trough across the Northwest and an
approaching surface cold front will continue to allow for dry,
downslope flow across portions of the central High Plains. While
some uncertainty exists regarding the timing of increasing cloud
cover from the southwest and its impact on RH reductions, elevated
fire weather conditions are expected across much of eastern Wyoming
and adjacent areas of the central Plains where sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to
overlap RH of 15-20% and receptive fuels.
..Chalmers.. 10/10/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 100601
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the
western U.S. on D2/Sunday, aiding in the northward transport of
deeper tropical moisture into southern California and much of the
Intermountain West. At the surface, a frontal system will extend
from southern California northeastward into the Great Basin and then
eastward into the central Plains. In the wake of this front, mainly
dry conditions will continue across the Columbia Basin and northern
California, with dry and breezy northerly flow expected to bring an
elevated fire weather threat to the northern Sacramento Valley
Sunday afternoon.
...Northern Sacramento Valley...
Following Saturday's cold frontal passage, strengthening northerly
winds and dry conditions are expected to support an increasing fire
weather threat for portions of the northern Sacramento Valley and
adjacent foothills. Sustained northerly winds of 15-25 mph (with
locally higher gusts) are forecast to overlap minimum RH values
around 20% Sunday afternoon, with the gusty winds the primary driver
of fire weather concerns where fuels are receptive.
..Chalmers.. 10/10/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 092138
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will deepen across the western U.S. while
aiding in the northward transport of deeper remnant tropical
moisture into southern CA and much of the Intermountain West through
D4/Monday. The resultant precipitation from the moisture-laden
mid/upper trough across the West will tame fire weather concerns
across southern CA and the Intermountain West. Mainly dry conditions
will persist across the Columbia Basin southward into northern CA
where dry, post-frontal northerly flow could bring a fire weather
threat to the northern Sacramento Valley on D3/Sunday. Farther east,
widespread rainfall from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will
similarly reduce fire weather concerns next week for the Southeast.
Areas of receptive fuels in the lower Mississippi River Valley and
Midwest are expected to remain in place through the middle of next
week as above normal temperatures linger across the region. However,
lighter surface winds under a prominent upper ridge will mitigate
fire weather threat across this region.
...Day 3/Sunday - Northern Sacramento Valley...
Increasing northerly winds in a dry, post-frontal environment should
facilitate an increasing fire weather threat for portions of the
northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills on D3/Sunday.
Sustained north winds of 15 mph to locally 20-25 mph with higher
gusts should evolve late D2/Saturday into D3/Sunday. Although much
cooler temperatures behind the front could limit RH reductions to
around 20% by Sunday afternoon, the gusty north winds will be a more
pronounced driver of fire weather concerns where fuels are
receptive. Introduced 40% critical probabilities for the northern
Sacramento Valley and adjacent western foothills to cover this
threat.
..Williams.. 10/09/2026
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