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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 091652
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...Southwest TX and Rio Grande Valley...
A vigorous 70-80 knot mid-level jet over the Permian Basin and TX
Panhandle will accompany an upper trough ejecting into the southern
High Plains through the afternoon, contributing to surface lee
troughing across eastern NM. Efficient boundary layer mixing under
mostly clear skies south of the surface trough and robust mid-level
flow will support downslope-enhanced west winds of 15-20 mph amid
15-20% relative humidity this afternoon across the Permian Basin
region. A swath of 20-25 mph west winds is expected from
southeastern NM into the TX Rolling Plains amid 15% RH, but recent
rainfall should mitigate fire weather threat, with elevated
highlights remaining to the south of higher antecedent moisture
conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to extend
into central TX/Hill Country this evening as surface flow
transitions to the northwest ahead of a looming secondary cold front
dropping south through Northwest TX. These meteorological conditions
should align with receptive fuels within a region that has seen
minimal rainfall in the last 30 days.
..Williams.. 01/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough over the Southwest is forecast to rapidly
move eastward before merging with a broader upper trough over the
central US. A front, trailing from the first trough/low will linger
over the Ozarks and Red River Valley. A weak lee low will develop
and move east as cold front move south. Gusty west/northwest winds
and dry conditions may promote elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southwest TX and Rio Grande Valley...
As the upper trough approaches from the west, large-scale ascent
will support increasing mass response over portions of West TX. As
the weak secondary low deepens over the southern Rockies, strong
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the remnant warm/dry sector
over parts of Southwestern TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Downslope
winds and diurnal heating should result in low RH around 20% through
the afternoon. Winds will initially be sustained around 15-20 mph,
but eventually the approach of the second cold front will support
increasing gusts to 20-30 mph turning northwesterly. The increasing
winds will overlap with low RH late in the afternoon and into the
evening. Some dry and windy conditions may extended eastward into
the western Hill Country after dark. With dry fuels in place outside
of recent and expected rainfall, several hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions appear probable.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 091944
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...South-Central Texas and Edwards Plateau...
A dry, post-frontal environment will be in place across the Southern
Plains for Day 2/Saturday as an upper-level trough progresses
eastward and surface high pressure builds into the region. Current
observations and short term model guidance suggests showers and
thunderstorms evolving from late Day 1/Friday through early Day
2/Saturday will remain largely east of the eastern extent of
existing elevated highlight area across central TX. Farther west,
dry conditions including single digit surface dew points and RH
values as low as 15%, combined with broad northerly post-frontal
flow of 10-15 mph (locally sustained 20 mph ) will promote a few
hours of heightened fire weather concern in south-central TX and
Edwards Plateau Saturday afternoon. Fire weather concerns diminish
late Saturday afternoon and evening as winds relax and colder
temperatures in the 30s settle into region.
..Williams.. 01/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will intensify as it moves eastward across the
central US D2/Saturday. In the wake of the trough, a cold front will
sweep southeastward through the Plains. A dry post-frontal air mass
will develop over much of the Plains, with the driest portions
expected across parts of south-central TX and the Rio Grande Valley.
Gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with the dry air
mass likely supporting elevated fire-weather conditions over
portions of south-central TX and the Big Bend Region Saturday
afternoon.
As the front moves eastward, there is some uncertainty regarding how
far west thunderstorms will form overnight D1/Friday into early
D2/Saturday. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may briefly be
possible farther east if significant rain does not fall. However,
the most likely corridor is farther west toward the Big bend region
where the strongest winds and lowest RH are expected to persist.
Fire-weather concerns will quickly abate near sunset as a cooler air
mass enhances RH recoveries and winds slacken.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 092141
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
Dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures will likely
dominate the western U.S. under a relatively stagnant upper-level
ridging pattern across the region. Broad northwest flow and
upper-level troughing across the eastern U.S. will continue to usher
in periods of colder temperatures and some precipitation via frontal
systems through late next week, although the High Plains should
remain largely dry.
...Southern/Central High Plains...
A dry return flow pattern should materialize early next week across
the Southern Plains as surface high pressure settles into the
southeastern U.S. Although dry conditions will persist, surface
winds from the west/southwest should remain muted, limiting a
broader fire weather threat. A more amplified upper-level pattern
should emerge by Day 6/Wednesday accompanied by a broad cold front
across the central U.S. This could present a fire weather concern
for portions of the Southern Plains/TX. Increasing northwest flow
aloft over the central/southern Rockies by Day 7/Thursday and
another potential cold front will promote a favorable downslope wind
set up in the lee of the central/southern Rockies. Some uncertainty
in frontal timing limits predictability at this time with no
critical probabilities introduced.
...Day 3/Sunday - Southeast...
Considerable rainfall associated with an upper-level trough and
surface cold front over the weekend will likely mitigate fire
weather concerns from the northern Gulf Coast into the Mid Atlantic
for early next week. However, portions of southern Georgia, Coastal
Plains of the Carolinas and Florida could evade heavier rainfall.
This region could be exposed to dry, post-frontal flow from the
northwest on Day 3/Sunday although marginal fuels precludes
introduction of critical probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 01/09/2026
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