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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 011527
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0927 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated conditions due to dry and breezy westerly winds are
likely in portions of southeast Wyoming and perhaps along the
eastern front of the southern Rockies this afternoon. Additionally,
westerly winds of 10-15 mph with minimum RH of 30-40% are likely on
portions of the eastern Florida Peninsula into north Florida and
southeast Georgia resulting in locally elevated conditions.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the
previous discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 01/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as relatively zonal
upper flow (with small embedded impulses) becomes established over
the central U.S., and another mid-level trough approaches the West
Coast today. A surface low will develop across the southern Plains,
encouraging modest downslope flow across the central and southern
High Plains. Despite the stronger (15-25 mph) sustained westerly
surface winds expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas,
higher RH values will mix eastward with the stronger flow, dampening
wildfire-spread concerns to some degree. While localized
wildfire-spread potential is still possible, these conditions appear
too limited for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this
time.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 011929
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
The Elevated area was made slightly smaller and shifted slightly
farther south based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance.
RH may not meet Elevated criteria in portions of the Elevated area,
but given the forecast sustained 15-25 mph westerly winds, much of
the Elevated area was maintained.
..Nauslar.. 01/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the central Plains, which
will encourage the strengthening of a surface low along the Red
River tomorrow (Friday). To the west of the surface low, dry
downslope flow along the southern Rockies, in tandem with increased
isallobaric flow, will support Elevated fire weather conditions
across much of western into central TX Friday afternoon. 15-20 mph
sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 20-30 percent RH
for several hours Friday afternoon, and will overspread dry fuels.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 012146
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
Low amplitude ridging is expected to develop over the central US
this weekend, with low amplitude ridging to quasi-zonal flow over
much of the CONUS early to mid-next week. A jet will like likely
extend east-northeast from off the southern California coast through
the Colorado Rockies this weekend into early next week, which will
increase downslope flow for portions of the southern/central Plains.
While widespread precipitation is expected for the West Coast, much
of the central US, especially the Plains, are likely to remain dry
into mid-next week. Most of the Southeast will also receive little
to no precipitation after Day 3/Saturday.
...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday: central/southern High Plains...
Downslope flow will increase across the central High Plains on Day
4/Sunday as a westerly mid-level jet impinges on the
central/southern Rockies. Elevated conditions are possible from
southeast Wyoming into southern Colorado along and just east of the
eastern slopes of the Rockies. However, current forecast guidance
indicates misalignment of the strongest winds and lowest RH.
Additionally, there is uncertainty regarding how far down the
eastern slopes of the Rockies the stronger winds will extend.
Despite recent precipitation, fuels remain historically dry for this
time of year across portions of these areas.
On Day 5/Monday, downslope flow and subsequent lee troughing will
likely result in elevated/locally critical fire weather conditions
in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity as breezy west-southwest winds
strengthen amid a dry airmass across portions of the southern High
Plains. Forecast guidance indicates the possibility of elevated fire
weather conditions continuing on Day 6/Monday in portions of west
Texas extending into central/north Texas, but too much forecast
uncertainty exists to introduce probabilities at this time.
..Nauslar.. 01/01/2026
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