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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 090640
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Largely zonal flow will persist across much of the Rockies today,
with upper-level ridging across much of the Intermountain West and a
closed upper-level low approaching the northern California
coastline. At the surface, a frontal boundary positioned across the
central Great Plains will shift northward as a warm front today
before moving back southward as cold front tonight. A trailing
dryline will also extend southward across the central/southern High
Plains.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
A weak surface low positioned over southeastern Colorado is forecast
to favor sustained southwesterly winds around 15 mph across portions
of the southern High Plains behind the dryline. While passing
mid/high clouds may temper the overall fire environment to some
extent, minimum relative humidities are forecast in the 15-20% range
during peak mixing. With dry fuels across the region, this should
promote at least a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns for
northeastern New Mexico, the northwestern Texas Panhandle, and the
western Oklahoma Panhandle.
Increased mid-level moisture atop deep, dry boundary layers may also
support the development of isolated, high-based convection across
this region this afternoon. While little precipitation is expected
with any storms that do develop due to PWATs on the order of a half
inch or less and LCLs approaching 4 km AGL, erratic downburst winds
will be possible. With forecast soundings indicating the presence of
50-150 J/kg MLCAPE, a few lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out.
However, given the very isolated nature of storm development and the
potential for wetting rainfall on D2/Friday, dry thunderstorm
probabilities have been withheld.
...Portions of the Great Basin/Southwest...
Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in terrain favored
areas) are forecast to coincide with low RH of 15-20% across much of
the southern Great Basin/Southwest. This combination of winds/RH may
promote locally elevated fire weather concerns, but recent cooler
weather, precipitation, and resultant marginal fuels are expected to
preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time.
...Portions of the Northeast...
Surface high pressure shifting offshore of the Northeast coupled
with low pressure in the vicinity of James Bay will promote a
tightened pressure gradient and sustained 10-15 mph southerly winds
across portions of the Northeast this afternoon (locally higher
within the Hudson/Champlain/Connecticut River Valleys). While
minimum RH values are forecast around 25-35%, questionable fuels
preclude any introduction of Elevated highlights. This combination
of weather conditions may support fire spread within pockets of
drier fine fuels, however.
..Chalmers.. 04/09/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 090641
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough approaches the California coast on
D2/Friday as another upper trough traverses the Great Lakes into the
Northeast. Simultaneously, upper ridging will persist across the
Rockies and eastern Great Basin, with zonal flow continuing across
the Great Plains. At the surface, a slow moving cold front will
progress southeastward across the Ohio River Valley and Northeast
with high pressure building into the Great Lakes/Midwest.
...Portions of the Great Basin...
A tightened surface pressure gradient will favor sustained southerly
winds of 15-25 mph across much of the eastern/southern Great Basin
on D2/Friday. Despite some mid/high cloud cover, RH values are
forecast to fall to 15-20% (locally down to 10%) during peak mixing
Friday afternoon. With preconditioned, drying fuels from
D1/Thursday, this combination of winds and RH is expected to support
elevated fire weather conditions across much of eastern Utah into
west-central/northwestern Colorado. Deep boundary layer mixing and
modestly strong mid-level flow (25-35 kts within the 700-500 mb
layer) will also support the potential for occasional gusts to 35
mph across this region. Expected precipitation arrival on Saturday
may provide relief to any ongoing or new fire starts.
..Chalmers.. 04/09/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082200
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough approaches the California coast on Day
3/Friday while another upper trough traverses the Great Lakes into
the Northeast and temporary zonal flow continues over the Great
Plains. On Day 4/Saturday, an upper-level shortwave will move across
the central U.S., sending the first lee-surface low northeastward
over the Great Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Monday. A secondary
lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 6/Monday, traversing
the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day 7/Tuesday. This scenario
is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across much of
the western and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire
weather threats. Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will
be possible, but are difficult to pin point due to the highly
dynamic pattern.
...Great Basin - Day 3/Friday...
The best chances for fire weather conditions under southerly flow
will occur on Day 3/Friday across portions of eastern UT into
western CO. Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph)
combined with 15-20% RH atop preconditioned, drying fuels from Day
2/Thursday is expected to generate Elevated fire weather conditions.
Precipitation arrival on Day 4/Saturday afternoon may provide relief
to any ongoing or new fire starts.
...Middle Mississippi Valley - Day 5/Sunday...
Ongoing drying conditions through the rest of this week and
increasing potential for 10+ mph southerly winds on Day 5/Sunday may
promote locally elevated fire weather concerns across northeastern
AR, southeastern MO, and western TN. Portions of this region range
from D2-D4 drought, though higher chances for wetting rainfall does
arrive middle of next week. Given model uncertainty in how far
northeast the gulf moisture may advect combined with questionable
fuels, critical probabilities have been withheld for now.
...Southern/Central Plains - Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday...
Possible fire weather conditions return on Day 5/Sunday as a more
potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. On Day 6/Monday, a
secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Southwest. Considering the overall pattern, areas behind an emerging
dryline and along a downslope regime will need to be watched closely
for fire weather concerns. However, given model uncertainty in the
timing of the shortwave and coincident surface low development, and
the potential for widespread appreciable rainfall on Day 3/Friday -
Day 4/Saturday, critical probabilities have been withheld for now.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/08/2026
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