ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 301915

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes were made to the Day 2/Friday Fire Weather Outlook; see
   the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/30/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong upper-level trough will begin to move onshore overnight
   over the Pacific Northwest, with upper-level ridging stretching from
   the Desert Southwest through the northern Rockies ahead of it. A
   weaker mid-level shortwave trough is likely to precede the larger
   upper-level trough and move from northern California into the
   northern Rockies before weakening amid the building heights.
   Monsoonal thunderstorms are likely to remain mostly along/east of
   the Divide in Colorado and New Mexico, while still likely to develop
   across portions southeast Arizona. 

   Hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions are likely across much of
   the West, especially the Intermountain West, ahead of the
   upper-level trough. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible across
   portions of central/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana during the
   afternoon and evening, but forecast guidance indicates less than a
   20% chance and mostly less than 10% chance of thunderstorms. Better
   chances of thunderstorms are likely across portions of Wyoming but
   are likely to be wetter and over less receptive fuels.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 302214

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0514 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

   Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A robust fire weather pattern is expected across portions of the
   Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and portions of the northern
   Plains this weekend. Multiple days of very dry and windy conditions
   amid an exceptionally dry fuelscape will promote significant fire
   weather concerns for numerous ongoing large wildfires across the
   region and any new ignitions.

   Upper-level troughing should persist over the northeastern CONUS
   into early next week, while high pressure will remain centered over
   the Desert Southwest through the forecast period. An upper low will
   transition into British Columbia on Day 3/Saturday with amplified
   southwesterly flow over the Pacific Northwest. A dry cold front will
   quickly progress southward across the Northwest and northern Great
   Basin through Day 4/Sunday. This feature will reinforce gusty
   surface winds amid a dry airmass across much of the northwestern
   CONUS through Day 5/Monday. Next week, long-range model guidance
   begins to differ in the progression of the overall upper pattern.
   Some solutions depict a temporary ridge to rebuild over the western
   CONUS, while others portray a shortwave trough impinging upon the
   Pacific Northwest.

   ...Days 3-5/Saturday-Monday - Northwestern US...
   As the upper low transitions into British Columbia and a surface low
   amplifies across southern Alberta on Day 3/Saturday, a dry cold
   front will progress southward through the Pacific Northwest. East of
   the Cascades and Northern Rockies, a tightening surface pressure
   gradient and an emerging 700 mb 40-50 kt jet will promote strong
   southwest-westerly surface winds amid a very dry boundary layer --
   allowing greater potential for critical fire conditions to
   materialize, especially where ERCs are approaching the 95th
   percentile. As such, 70% Critical probabilities have been expanded
   into eastern Oregon, the Idaho Panhandle, and northwestern Montana.
   In addition, recent guidance indicates a corridor of sustained 20-30
   mph winds amid 15-20% RH in central-eastern Washington, possibly
   leading to extremely critical fire weather concerns where a few
   large fires are ongoing. 

   Hot, dry, and windy conditions will shift slightly eastward on Day
   4/Sunday, encompassing portions of the northern High Plains. 70%
   Critical probabilities have been introduced across much of Montana,
   central-eastern Idaho, and western Wyoming where very strong winds
   and critically low RH are forecast amid dry fuels. While recent
   accumulating rainfall has provided some relief to western South
   Dakota, eastern Wyoming, and the Nebraska Panhandle, fine fuels may
   grow increasingly receptive by Sunday. As such, 40% Critical
   probabilities have been expanded where low RH and gusty winds should
   overlap. 

   On Day 5/Monday, stronger southwest/westerly flow aloft will finally
   begin to exit the region, pushing into the northern Plains and Upper
   Midwest. Nevertheless, residual dry and breezy conditions are
   expected across the northern Great Basin into western Wyoming,
   supporting 40% Critical probabilities.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/30/2026