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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 231609

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1109 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

   Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...Morning Update...
   No changes were made to the previous forecast. Current satellite
   imagery portrays mostly clear skies across the fire weather risk
   areas. Very poor overnight humidity recoveries in the High Plains
   have resulted in widespread 15-25 percent RH values as depicted in
   morning surface observations. In eastern NM through the central TX
   Panhandle, Critical conditions are already being observed with
   sub-15 percent RH and sustained westerly winds over 20 mph (locally
   sporadic gusts over 35 mph). As mid/upper level moisture shifts
   southeast over the Continental Divide, cloud cover will gradually
   increase this afternoon with chances for precipitation over the
   central Plains, providing some relief to the fire environment.
   However, portions of the southern Plains are expected to remain
   under mostly clear skies through the evening. Minimal cloud cover
   will yield better boundary layer mixing, allowing Critical
   conditions to persist for up to 12 hours in some areas. A 700-850 mb
   jet will strengthen from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle this
   afternoon as the surface low deepens over northwestern OK,
   increasing concerns for localized extremely critical conditions to
   develop in terrain-influenced areas. 

   Across southern New England, a breezy post frontal environment will
   develop in the wake of a passing dry cold front this afternoon. RH
   is expected to drop to 25-35 percent with increasing northwesterly
   winds of 10-15 mph at peak heating. However, marginal fuels and
   recent precipitation precludes the introduction of fire weather
   highlights. 

   See the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/23/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough and its accompanying mid-level jet streak will
   move into the central CONUS today. Simultaneously, a surface trough
   and cold front will advance through the central Plains and Upper
   Midwest. The most acute fire weather risks are centered over the
   central and southern High Plains, specifically behind and ahead of
   the cold front. Within this corridor, intense southwesterly winds
   will switch to the northwest following the frontal passage. When
   coupled with low humidity and exceptionally dry fuels, these factors
   will result in Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions.

   ...Southern and Central Plains...
   Wind speeds just off the surface are expected to intensify from
   eastern NM into the TX Panhandle by this afternoon, driven by
   surface cyclogenesis over southern KS and northwest OK. Given that
   the dryline is forecast to remain east of the Caprock through the
   morning, moisture recovery will be lackluster across eastern NM and
   the western TX Panhandle. With only minimal upper level clouds today
   facilitating robust vertical mixing, expect RHs down to 10% or less,
   while sustained westerly winds reach 20-25 mph.

   The Critical area was expanded to include portions of northeast CO
   and southwest NE. At least a few hours of critical conditions are
   possible in northwest 15-20 mph winds behind the front before higher
   RHs move over the area late in the day. Isolated pockets of
   Extremely Critical conditions remain possible within the gap-flow
   corridors of southeast CO and other terrain-influenced areas
   stretching from eastern CO into the western TX Panhandle. In these
   localized areas, sustained winds of 30 mph will likely overlap with
   single-digit RHs.

   To the north, an Elevated fire weather threat will persist across
   the central Plains (including the remainder of eastern CO, western
   KS, and much of NE) as dry, post-frontal northwesterly winds benefit
   from downslope enhancement. This threat also encompasses portions of
   the High Plains where the arrival of dry post-frontal air may cause
   existing wildfires or dormant lightning holdovers from Wednesday to
   flare up under the sustained dry and breezy regime. Precipitation
   accumulation overnight will continue to be closely monitored over
   portions of eastern South Dakota where elevated wind/RH conditions
   are likely, but fuels are currently expected to become unreceptive.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 231909

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0209 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF COLORADO FRONT RANGE
   AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Afternoon Update...
   Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced to portions of
   the CO Rockies and adjacent High Plains where forecast guidance has
   trended towards increased probabilities of very low RH and strong
   winds. Beneath the upper trough, a surface low will emerge over
   eastern CO promoting westerly downslope winds along the Front Range
   and southwesterly winds over eastern CO. Deeper mixing will
   encourage sustained winds of 15-25 mph and critically low RH of
   10-15 percent (locally below 10 percent) at peak heating,
   overlapping very dry fuels in a region where multiple preceding days
   of critical fire weather conditions have further exacerbated the
   fire environment. Elevated highlights have been expanded further
   west to encompass the Four Corners into northwestern CO where
   westerly winds of 15-20 mph and less than 20 percent RH will overlap
   ERCs approaching the 75th-90th percentile.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/23/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   On Day 2/Friday, upper level ridging across the eastern U.S. will
   begin to flatten, transitioning to a fairly zonal flow regime over
   much of the southern CONUS. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough
   will persist over the north-central U.S. along the Canadian border.
   Expect very breezy and continued dry conditions through the end of
   the work week over the Southwest and southern and central High
   Plains.

   ...Southwest and Southern Plains...
   The aforementioned westerly winds aloft will mix down to the surface
   during peak heating, leading to strong westerly downslope flow
   (sustained at 15-20 mph) and critically low RH (10-15%) that will
   overlap very dry fuels on Day 2/Friday. Following several preceding
   days of heightened fire weather conditions, the environment will be
   further exacerbated across portions of the Southwest and southern
   Plains. Winds look to be particularly strong near the Palmer Divide
   in east-central CO; this area will be monitored for meeting Critical
   thresholds if trends in forecast guidance continue. Increasing
   clouds cover later in the day on Day 2/Friday is expected over much
   of the region, which will likely work to mitigate some of the fire
   weather threat before sunset.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 232110

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0410 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 011200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A large scale upper trough will persist over the central U.S. and
   Canada border through Day 4/Sunday. An upper ridge over the eastern
   U.S. will break down as a mid-level shortwave approaches on Day
   3/Saturday and widespread precipitation chances return, bringing
   much needed relief to exceptionally dry fuels across the Piedmont
   and Southeast. A secondary shortwave trough will move into the
   Southwest on Day 4/Sunday with increasing southwest flow aloft,
   inducing lee cyclogenesis over the central Plains. This pattern
   change will bring widespread chances for precipitation across
   portions of the High Plains into the Upper Midwest and Mid-South
   through Day 6/Tuesday. However, in areas that do not see appreciable
   rainfall, fire weather concerns are expected to linger. Towards the
   end of the forecast period, an additional low-amplitude trough is
   forecast to approach the southwestern U.S. Given the overall
   pattern, fire weather conditions should persist where fuels remain
   receptive.

   ...Day 3/Saturday and Day 4/Sunday - Southern Plains into portions
   of the Southwest...
   As upper troughing persists across the north-central U.S., strong
   zonal flow over the Southwest will encourage very breezy and
   continued dry conditions on Day 3/Saturday. With preceding days of
   Critical fire weather conditions, westerly downslope flow of 15-20
   mph and 10-15 percent RH atop dry fuels will further exacerbate the
   fire environment, supportive of 40% Critical probabilities on Day
   3/Saturday. A strong mid-level disturbance is forecast to cross over
   the High Plains on Day 4/Sunday, resulting in lee cyclogenesis over
   portions of eastern CO and western KS. Behind an emerging dryline,
   westerly downslope flow is expected to promote very strong winds and
   critically low RH overlapping a dry fuelscape. Both 40% and 70%
   Critical probabilities have been maintained to encompass the
   expansive fire weather threat. 

   As the upper trough shifts east across the Midwest, a dry airmass
   will persist over the Southwest and southern Plains early next week.
   Breezy conditions may emerge in advance of an approaching upper
   trough later in the forecast period, albeit model guidance varies in
   the timing and strength of the overall upper pattern. Thus, guidance
   ambiguity precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/23/2026
      




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