|
U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 210706
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are forecast today across
much of the Southern Great Plains, with at least Elevated
fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest Texas as well
as southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
...South-Central Texas/Big Bend...
Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are forecast
this afternoon, with relative humidity as low as 15-20% and winds of
15-20 MPH. Conditions in the western portion of the outlook area in
the vicinity of Big Bend will tend to be drier and perhaps a little
less windy (10-15 MPH), with the eastern portion in south-central
Texas being more humid and windier (15-20 MPH). A narrow corridor of
locally Critical conditions may exist within the gradient of these
conditions, where the drier air and higher wind speeds overlap with
receptive fuels. However, there was not enough confidence in a large
enough spatial and temporal overlap of these conditions to warrant
additional highlights at this time.
...Southwestern Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...
Though surface temperatures will be relatively cooler this far north
into the post-frontal airmass, daytime heating and mixing is
forecast to raise surface temperatures into the mid-to-upper 40s F.
Forecast profiles across the area are well mixed and very dry, with
surface relative humidity of around 15% and winds of 10-15 MPH.
Given the critically dry fuels across the area and recent wildfire
activity, Elevated highlights have been introduced in this outlook.
..Halbert.. 02/21/2026
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 210706
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
As a cold front moves off the Atlantic/Gulf coasts, dry and breezy
post-frontal conditions are forecast across much of the Southeast on
Sunday. Relative humidity could get as low as 25%-30% across
portions of northern Florida currently experiencing drought, with
winds reaching 15-20 MPH. These conditions will support Elevated
concerns for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon
Sunday.
..Halbert.. 02/21/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 202219
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
CORRECTED FOR TEXT ERROR
...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will amplify D3/Sunday as a trough deepens over the
far Southeastern US and Atlantic Coast. Widespread rainfall across
much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire weather
concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited farther south
across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern for FL where
dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire weather
threat for Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. The upper ridge will begin
to break down D5/Tuesday, introducing dry return flow and downslope
winds across the Central and Southern Plains, potentially increasing
fire weather concerns through the extended period.
...Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday - Florida and Southern Plains...
Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
3/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
precipitation across FL. A mostly dry cold front will pass through
the northern FL peninsula late morning D3/Sunday bringing post
frontal northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH of 20-30
percent. Coincident dry fuels should increase the fire weather
threat for a few afternoon hours where 40% Critical probabilities
have been maintained.
As the upper-level trough deepens on D4/Monday, dry northwesterly
flow is expected to continue with poor overnight RH recovery. 40%
Critical probabilities have been expanded to northern FL where
strong winds and critically low minimum RH will overlap dry fuels.
While minimal rainfall is expected on D3/Sunday, uncertainty in
amount and extent precludes the introduction of 70% probabilities
for now.
Cooler dry return flow will enter the Southern Plains on D3/Sunday
and D4/Monday. This will allow for continued drying of the
fuelscape, setting the stage for increased fire weather concerns on
D5/Tuesday.
...Day 5/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
Fire weather concerns reemerge across portions of the central and
southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
starts to break down. 40% critical probabilities have been added
where a combination of low RH and strong westerly winds overlap dry
fuels in eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Beneath the upper-level
ridge a surface low will emerge in the lee of the Laramie Range,
tightening a surface pressure gradient across eastern WY and western
NE. Very strong downslope winds may occur, though cooler
temperatures and RH uncertainties have limited the introduction of
70% Critical probabilities for now.
...Day 6/Wednesday - West Texas...
40% Critical probabilities have been maintained across the West TX
region as long-range models are hinting at hot, dry, and windy
conditions atop dry fuels. Increasing northwest flow aloft and
induced surface lee troughing will support increased fire weather
concerns.
...Day 7/Thursday - D8/Friday...
Uncertainty is too high for the extended period to introduce
probabilities for Critical conditions. Nevertheless, as the
upper-ridge flattens and multiple short-wave impulses cross central
CONUS, the pattern may suggest an ongoing fire weather threat
through the forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliott.. 02/20/2026
|
