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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120659
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad and intensifying southwest flow aloft and an intensifying
surface cyclone progressing from the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will be responsible for widespread dry and windy conditions
across much of the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains this
afternoon.
...Southwest and Four Corners...
Deeply mixed and dry boundary layer profiles will support strong
southwesterly surface winds across much of the Southwest into the
Four Corners region, reaching 20 MPH (gusting 25-30 in some regions)
with widespread relative humidity of 10-15%. These conditions will
coincide with a wide array of fuel conditions ranging from
marginally to modestly receptive. Locally Critical conditions may
occur, with some signal for a corridor of stronger winds in
south-central Utah. However, overall marginal fuels and lack of
confidence in the duration and magnitude of surface winds reaching
Critical criteria preclude highlights at this time.
...Central High Plains...
Surface conditions behind the dryline in the Central High Plains
will be quite gusty and dry, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative
humidity as low as 10% across much of the region. However, these
conditions overlap a complex fuelsape where recent showers and
thunderstorms have dampened fuels across portions of
central/southern Colorado into New Mexico. Further north into
portions of Wyoming and Nebraska, where fuels are more receptive,
winds are expected to remain at or around 20 MPH, with gusts
exceeding 25 MPH. Locally critical conditions may occur in portions
of northern Nebraska.
...Ohio River Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley...
Ongoing drought conditions coupled with dry and breezy southerly
flow will result in Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions
of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley. Surface winds
of 10-15 MPH and relative humidity of 25-35% will overlap with fuels
exceeding the 95th-99th annual ERC percentiles.
..Halbert.. 04/12/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120703
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Broad southwesterly mid level flow in advance of a trough
progressing from California into the Great Basin will be responsible
for widespread dry and windy conditions from southeastern New Mexico
all the way into portions of eastern Wyoming and South Dakota.
Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast for portions of
southeastern Colorado into portions of far western Kansas and
northern New Mexico.
...Eastern New Mexico/Adjacent High Plains...
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for southeastern
Colorado into portions of far northeastern New Mexico and far
western Kansas. Minimum relative humidity of 10-15% and winds of 25
MPH will overlap with critically receptive fuels. While Critical
meteorological conditions appear they could extend further south and
west of the current area, recent wetting rainfall and a lack of
receptive fuels currently limit the expansion of highlights. Still,
there are some pockets of receptive fuels in portions of Oklahoma
into the Texas Panhandle that have yet to receive rain, and some
additional highlights may be warranted in future updates. A
secondary area of concern in the ensemble guidance could be portions
of northern Nebraska into South Dakota/Wyoming, where some members
have come in with winds of 25-30 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15%
over receptive fuels. However, ensemble spread in the surface winds
reduces confidence to introduce these highlights, especially given
the members with the strongest winds are models that tend to bias
towards aggressive mixing. Still, this area will be monitored for
additional highlights in future updates.
...Mid Atlantic...
Dry southeasterly return flow is forecast across portions of North
Carolina into much of Virginia, where fuels currently exceed the
95th-99th annual percentiles for ERCs. Winds are expected to reach
10-15 MPH with relative humidity around 25-35%, supporting Elevated
fire-weather concerns.
..Halbert.. 04/12/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 112145
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
An active upper-level troughing pattern is expected across much of
the western and central CONUS next week bringing increasing
opportunities for precipitation to portions of the Intermountain
West, the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast. Largely dry
conditions will continue across the Southeast under persistent
ridging aloft, but light winds should limit a broader fire weather
threat across the region where drought continues to expand. A fire
weather threat will likely be sustained this through at least Day
5/Wednesday across sections of the Southwest and central/southern
High Plains where rainfall is minimized and dry and breezy
conditions under enhanced southwest flow aloft continues.
...Day 3/Monday...
...Central/Southern Plains and Southwest...
Broad southwest flow ahead of an eastward advancing upper-level
trough across the Great Basin will overspread much of Southwest and
central U.S. on Day 3/Monday. Farther east, an evolving surface low
across SD/NE with enhanced southwest flow aloft will support dry and
breezy conditions amid a well-mixed, dry boundary layer across much
of the central and southern High Plains. Minimal preceding rainfall
and remaining receptive fuels should support an enhanced fire
weather threat across the region. Latest model guidance has shifted
a 500 mb jet max slightly southward over northeastern NM into the
TX/OK Panhandles, with critical fire weather conditions more likely
to develop across this region. As such, the 70% critical area has
been modified based on this updated model guidance.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A dry return flow pattern emerges early next week across the
Mid-Atlantic as a surface low translates northeastward into Ontario.
In response, increased pressure gradients should allow for
increasing south/southwest winds amid relative humidity as low as
20% across portions of NC and VA. 40% critical probabilities have
been introduced amid very dry fuels.
...Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday...
...Central and Southern Plains...
A mid-level jet enters the Southern Plains Day 4/Tuesday in
association with a progressive trough across the West. Downslope
enhanced west/southwest winds behind a dry line should bring at
least elevated fire weather concerns to much of the southern and
central Plains by Tuesday afternoon. Some uncertainty remains in
expected extent and magnitude of rainfall through tonight across the
Southern Plains, with a potential introduction of 70% critical
probabilities possible in future forecast updates if significant
rainfall fails to materialize. The dry, downslope regime continues
into Day 5/Wednesday with fire weather concerns more focused across
southeastern NM into West TX on the tail of the departing mid-level
jet. 40% critical probabilities have been added for portions of
southeastern NM and West TX for this expected fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 04/11/2026
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