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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 030656
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough currently analyzed over the Great Basin
and Four Corners will eject eastward across the High Plains today.
At the surface, a deepening lee low will develop south/southeastward
from eastern Colorado into west Texas while high pressure builds
across the West. A southward trailing dryline coupled with stronger
flow aloft will enhance surface winds across portions of the
southern High Plains ahead of a southward moving cold front. When
coupled with dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions are expected over the
southern High Plains this afternoon.
...Southern High Plains...
As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate
height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a
trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern Colorado and New Mexico.
The developing lee surface cyclone will gradually sag
south/southeastward into west Texas into this afternoon.
Simultaneously, building high pressure across the West will couple
with the deepening low to enhance the surface pressure gradient
across the eastern New Mexico. Aided by modest mid-level winds, this
gradient is forecast to support sustained westerly winds of 15-20
mph during the afternoon, with downsloping and warm temperatures
yielding low humidity below 20%. When overlapped with areas of
abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of
elevated fire-weather conditions are probable this afternoon.
Some locally stronger winds (sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 25-30
mph) may develop with RH falling below 15% across portions of
eastern New Mexico for a few hours this afternoon. However, the
duration of sustained stronger winds is expected to be short as the
upper jet will gradually weaken as the mid-level trough ejects
farther to the east. Nevertheless, a few hours of near critical
conditions are possible across eastern New Mexico, with the greatest
potential expected to be along the northern edge of the Llano
Estacado and within the Canadian River Valley, where terrain may
favor local wind enhancements. A southward moving cold front will
bring an end to fire weather concerns through the overnight hours,
with increasing RH and an abrupt shift to northeasterly winds
accompanying the frontal passage.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/03/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 030800
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the
central Great Plains through D2/Wednesday as a more amplified
upper-level trough digs southeastward into the West. At the surface,
a weak cyclone will transition northeastward across the Midwest
along a nearly stationary boundary forecast to extend from far west
Texas northeastward into the Midwest and then eastward across the
Mid-Atlantic. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and modestly
increased RH within the post-frontal air mass are expected to temper
any fire weather concerns across much of the central and southern
High Plains. While a corridor of stronger sustained surface winds
(15-20 mph) is forecast ahead of the surface low from southern Texas
into the mid-Mississippi River Valley, richer low-level moisture
will maintain surface RH above 40-50% across region.
Meanwhile, a second surface cyclone will shift southeastward from
Alberta into southeastern Montana and may bring a brief period of
localized downslope winds to portions of the northern High Plains;
however, sustained winds are forecast to remain light (less than 15
mph) across any areas that do see decreased RH values of 20% or
less. Given the expected poor overlap of low RH and stronger
sustained winds, widespread fire weather concerns are not
anticipated at this time.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/03/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 022141
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 101200Z
An upper-level trough will move into the West and deepen Day
3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. Moisture return will increase on the
southern/central Plains with a sharpening dryline on the
southern/central High Plains. Two upper lows are likely to develop
within the troughing with one tracking to the northeast Day 5/Friday
- Day 6/Saturday with the other upper low likely shifting over
southern/Baja California.
...Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday: Southern/central High Plains...
Strong flow aloft arrives Day 4/Thursday across the Southwest onto
the southern/central High Plains as the upper-level trough moves
into the Intermountain West. Lee troughing and a sharpening dryline
will develop on the southern/central High Plains with stronger flow
intersecting a thermal ridge. Ensemble forecast guidance indicates
70%+ probabilities of critical fire weather conditions developing on
portions of the southern High Plains and along eastern slopes of the
southern Rockies. South-southwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph amid
minimum RH of 8-20% are forecast across southern/central/eastern New
Mexico into west Texas, southeast Colorado, and western Kansas. High
clouds and the dryline position on Day 4/Thursday along with
possible light precipitation on Day 2/Tuesday night in northern
portions of the 40/70% areas are sources of forecast uncertainty.
However, confidence is high that critical conditions will develop on
portions of the southern/central High Plains and onto eastern slopes
of the southern Rockies.
Along the dryline on Day 4/Thursday, dry thunderstorm development
cannot be ruled out. The risk of dry thunderstorms would likely be
confined to along/near the dryline with deeper moisture and wetter
storms farther east of the dryline.
Elevated and critical fire weather conditions are expected on Day
5/Friday across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. However, forecast
thunderstorm development on Day 4/Thursday along/east of the dryline
will dictate the expanse of elevated/critical fire weather
conditions in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas on
Day 5/Friday. A 70% area will likely be needed in subsequent
outlooks, but the forecast uncertainty regarding the dryline and
potential precipitation precludes expanding and introducing higher
probabilities at this time.
..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/02/2026
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