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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 011637

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1037 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

   Valid 011700Z - 021200Z

   ...Eastern New Mexico and West Texas...
   A subtle mid-level wave and associated enhanced mid-level flow will
   advance eastward across the Southern Rockies into the Southern
   Plains today. In response, weak surface lee troughing will develop
   across the southern High Plains through this afternoon. A shallow
   inversion in place this morning across eastern NM will quickly mix
   out, with a dry and well-mixed boundary layer emerging by this
   afternoon. This will support dry and breezy conditions within the
   broader westerly, downslope favorable flow over east-central NM
   where west winds approaching 20 mph at times and relative humidity
   falling to as low as 15% will align with dry fuels. Elevated
   highlights were introduced into east-central NM, with locally
   elevated fire weather concerns extending southward into far west TX
   in lee of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.

   ..Williams.. 03/01/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Shortwave ridging building over the Southwest will weaken flow aloft
   over the southern Rockies and High Plains through today. At the same
   time, a surface cold front will continue to move south and stall
   across the southern Plains States. Ahead of this front, a few hours
   of dry and breezy downslope winds could support localized
   fire-weather concerns over parts of eastern NM and West TX.
   Otherwise, cooler temperatures and precipitation should limit
   fire-weather potential.

   ...Eastern NM and west TX...
   Sub-tropical ridging is forecast to build steadily over the
   Southwest today, with westerly winds aloft remaining modest over
   parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Very warm
   temperatures, and surface high pressure to the west will favor some
   locally breezy winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into
   far west TX ahead of the sagging cold front. Warm temperatures and
   the dry downslope flow will support RH of 15-20% during the
   afternoon. While the modest surface winds will preclude broader
   fire-weather concerns, locally breezy winds amid dry fuels could
   support some brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions this
   afternoon.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 011922

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...Central and Southern High Plains...
   Elevated Fire Weather Highlights were introduced into portions of
   the High Plains of central/southern CO and eastern NM for Monday. A
   backdoor cold front will usher in a cooler, but shallow moist
   near-surface layer into much of the High Plains through tonight into
   D2/Monday. Lee surface trough development in response to increasing
   westerly flow aloft is expected ahead of the mid-level trough
   entering the Southwest. This will support downslope drying and
   breezy west-southwest winds of 15-20 mph (locally 25 mph) within a
   narrow corridor along and east of the Southern Rockies, into
   south-central NM. Eastward mixing of the dry line and subsequent
   evolution of a deep, dry boundary layer should promote afternoon RH
   reductions to around 15% by mid-afternoon. The combination of
   stronger west-southwest winds, low RH and abundant dry fuels will
   boost fire weather concerns for Monday.

   ...Lower Colorado River Basin and Four Corners....
   Although a broad region of dry and breezy conditions will develop
   across the Lower CO River Basin and Four Corners ahead of an
   approaching mid-level trough, fuel receptiveness remains limited,
   which should mitigate broader fire weather impacts along and west of
   the Continental Divide.

   ..Williams.. 03/01/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Sub-tropical ridging over the Southwest is forecast to breakdown and
   shift eastward ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave troughing moving
   from the West. This will support modest lee troughing and increasing
   westerly flow over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies.
   While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry downslope winds
   and warm temperatures could support locally elevated fire-weather
   conditions D2/Monday.

   ...Northern NM and far southern CO...
   Shortwave troughing and strong westerly flow aloft will move from
   the Four Corners eastward into the southern Rockies and High Plains
   D2/Monday. Very warm and dry surface conditions (RH below 15%) is
   likely through the afternoon. Bolstered by the strengthening flow
   aloft, west/southwest downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected
   across eastern AZ, while slightly weaker winds are forecast into
   central/northern NM and southern CO. Area fuels are less receptive
   farther west where winds are expected to be stronger. Still, some
   locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible from central
   and northern NM into southern CO Monday afternoon. The poor
   alignment of stronger surface winds with the drier fuels should
   preclude more widespread elevated fire-weather concerns.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282149

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

   Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Quasi-zonal mid to upper-level flow will remain present across much
   of the CONUS early next week, with an embedded short-wave trough
   entering the Great Basin. Increasing mid-level
   westerly-to-southwesterly flow is expected to accompany this feature
   across the Southern Rockies D3/Monday into D4/Tuesday. A deepening
   lee surface low is also anticipated to slide southward from eastern
   CO into the High Plains of TX during these periods. As the
   short-wave trough progresses eastward and fills over the Central
   Plains D5/Wednesday, most extended model guidance suggests a
   long-wave trough will then develop over the western half of the
   CONUS.

   ...Southwest D3/Monday...
   Breezy west-southwesterly surface winds, along with warm and dry
   conditions, appear likely from southern CA into portions of NM by
   afternoon. While critical probabilities were evaluated for this
   region, they do not appear necessary at this time given less
   receptive fuels to the west (AZ) and slower wind speeds impacting
   locations to the east (NM).

   ...Eastern/Southeastern NM, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper
   Trans-Pecos D4/Tuesday...
   A southwesterly mid-level jet, deeply mixed boundary layer, and
   increasing surface pressure gradient will likely lead to a broader
   area of breezy conditions at the surface D4/Tuesday. Unseasonably
   warm conditions will persist across this area, and with near zero
   probabilities of rainfall expected, fuels will only become more
   receptive over time. Although extended forecast models differ with
   regards to the southward progression of a cold front across the
   Central Plains, and the surface low position, confidence has
   increased enough to warrant 40% critical probabilities across much
   of eastern and southeastern NM ahead of the front.

   ...Eastern NM D6/Thursday...
   Model solutions begin to diverge somewhat late in the week as the
   next short-wave trough moves onshore near central/northern CA. The
   position, depth, and progression of it vary through D6/Thursday,
   though increasing mid-level flow across the Southern Rockies and a
   subsequent lee surface low appear likely. As solutions begin to
   converge in later forecasts, low critical probabilities for at least
   eastern NM may be needed.

   ..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
      




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