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U.S. & Canada 12-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 110614
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will translate eastward into the
Upper-Midwest/Lower Mississippi River Valley through Wednesday as
deep surface low pressure area moves into the eastern Great Lakes
region, while a ridge begins to build across the West. Strong
north-northwest winds behind a cold front will usher in a drier air
mass, raising fire weather concerns across portions of the central
and southern Plains Wednesday.
...Central and Southern Plains...
Dry, post-frontal flow will encompass much of the central and
southern Plains on Wednesday. Clearing skies will support a
well-mixed, but shallower boundary layer by late afternoon along
with enhanced downslope drying under increasing northwest flow aloft
across southeastern WY, far northeastern CO and the NE Panhandle.
However, expected precipitation, some in the form of snow, in
addition to much cooler temperatures could limit an otherwise
near-critical fire weather concern where northwest winds of 15-25
mph are anticipated across this area. Sufficient widespread RH
reductions below 20 percent during peak insolation continues to be a
limiting factor in a more substantial fire weather risk across
western KS and OK/TX Panhandles, with broad Elevated Highlights
maintained where northerly winds of 20-30 mph and dry fuels align.
Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible across far
northwest TX/Rolling Plains area where afternoon RH briefly falls to
around 15 percent amid breezy north winds of up to 30 mph.
...Far South Texas...
Elevated Highlights were added to portions of far southern TX for
Wednesday. Dry west-northwest flow supported by an exiting short
wave trough and eastward shunting of deeper Gulf moisture will
impact far southern TX Wednesday. Ongoing convection across central
TX is expected to diminish through Wednesday morning, limiting
precipitation across far southern TX. West-northwest winds of 10-20
mph behind an eastward mixing dry line, along with minimum daytime
RH of around 15% should support Elevated fire weather conditions in
dry fuels where minimal rainfall has occurred over the last several
days.
..Williams.. 03/11/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 110647
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis...
A robust mid-level jet at the apex of a building ridge across the
West along with strong surface low pressure feature moving into the
Northern Plains will impart an expansive west-northwest wind field
across the northern and central High Plains D2/Thursday. Lee trough
development extending southward from the parent low over the
central/southern High Plains will support a rapid transition to a
dry return flow across the central and southern Plains, promoting
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the region.
...Central Plains...
Deep layer west-northwest flow and evolution of a well-mixed
boundary layer by peak heating will support strong west-northwest
winds of 25-35 mph across much of eastern WY into the northern High
Plains. Although strong winds are likely, surface RH reductions of
20-30 percent and cloud cover should reduce a more extreme fire
weather environment. Nonetheless, Critical fire weather conditions
where the strong winds, RH close to 20 percent and dry fuels align.
...Southern Plains...
A warmer and drier air mass aided by a downslope regime will evolve
across the southern Plains Thursday. A tightening surface pressure
gradient associated with lee trough expansion will promote broad
west-southwest winds of 15-20 across much of the region. Model
guidance continues to depict a stronger corridor of 20-25 mph winds
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle by D2/Thursday afternoon
aligning with RH as low as 15 percent by peak boundary layer
heating. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across
eastern NM, TX Panhandle and far western OK.
..Williams.. 03/11/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 102225
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
The large-scale pattern remains progressive through the forecast
period with the jet stream favoring northern portions of the CONUS.
A trough will move through the Great Lakes region on Day 3/Thursday
with another trough and associated jet max moving through the same
areas again on Day 4/Friday, leaving much of the western and central
CONUS under west to northwest flow as a ridge builds over the West
Coast. Another trough moves into the Pacific Northwest on Day
5/Saturday and digs into the southern CONUS on Day 6/Sunday before
approaching the Eastern Seaboard by Day 7/Monday.
On Day 3/Thursday, surface temperatures will rebound 5-15 degrees
above normal across much of central CONUS. This will lead to a well
mixed atmosphere with the jet stream positioned over the northern
1/3 of the CONUS. Thus, dry air and windy conditions will reach the
surface with the strongest northwest winds of 20-30 mph over western
Nebraska and also westerly winds of 20-30 mph in a somewhat narrow
corridor over east-central New Mexico and much of the Texas
Panhandle.
On Day 4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday, conditions aloft will be fairly
similar throughout both days with downslope flow likely from near
the Colorado Front Range through eastern New Mexico. These days will
have to be watched closely to determine if higher probabilities of
critical conditions will need to be introduced with future
issuances.
On Day 6/Sunday, the jet reaches farther south into the Southwest
and southern High Plains as the aforementioned large scale trough
digs farther south toward the region. Forecast guidance remains
uncertain due to the track and timing of the trough as it progresses
eastward. However, it's likely given the pattern that portions of
this area bear at least a 40% chance of critical conditions as a
cold front pushes south through the central/southern Plains.
At the end of the forecast period, much of the western CONUS will be
continuing to experience several consecutive days of drier and
warmer than normal conditions. While fuels are not yet receptive in
many of these areas, these anomalous conditions for mid March could
begin to affect fuel dryness well ahead of seasonal norms.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026
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