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U.S. & Canada 12-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 181635
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF IOWA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...
...Southern and Central High Plains...
An expansive area of Critical fire weather conditions are still
expected today across much of eastern CO, into portions of the
Southern Plains and southeast NM. An 80-90 kt mid-level jet on the
southern fringe of an approaching short wave, along with deepening
lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains will support a
favorable dry downslope regime across the region. A broad area of
southwest winds between 15 and 25 mph along with afternoon relative
humidity of 10-15 percent will yield high-end Critical fire weather
conditions across much of the southern High Plains including
portions of eastern CO and southeastern NM. Sporadic Extremely
Critical conditions including 30+ mph southwest winds and single
digit relative humidity are most likely across portions of southeast
NM, although overall fuelscape remains only moderately receptive
with ERC percentiles near to below normal. Less volatile but still
Elevated fire weather conditions extend eastward into central TX, OK
and KS where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity of
15-20 percent align through the afternoon.
...Portions of the Midwest...
Breezy west winds south of a surface low across along with
anomalously dry boundary layer conditions will support a swath of
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the
Midwest today. West winds of 15-25 mph combined with relative
humidity as low as 15 percent will align from far northeastern NE to
much of IA into northwestern IL. Dry fuels combined with these
Critical meteorological conditions will support wildfire spread over
a region where considerable precipitation deficits have been
observed.
..Williams.. 02/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026/
...Synopsis...
Two mid-level shortwave troughs, embedded in a broader low-amplitude
upper troughing pattern, will traverse the central CONUS today. One
trough will overspread the Great Lakes as a surface low gradually
weakens along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border. The second mid-level
trough will eject into the southern Plains by afternoon, accompanied
by an 80-90 kt 500 mb jet streak. As a result, gradient flow
associated with the surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley,
as well as dry downslope flow east of the southern Rockies, will
encourage appreciable wildfire spread potential over portions of the
Midwest and southern High Plains, respectively.
...Southern High Plains...
As downslope flow peaks in intensity by mid to late afternoon,
widespread 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds, with higher
gusts, will overlap with 10-15 percent RH (perhaps lower in some
locales). The best chance for these conditions will be over
northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and immediate
surrounding areas. Given very receptive fuels, high-end Critical
conditions, supporting dangerous/rapid wildfire-spread potential,
are expected. While Extremely Critical conditions are not expected
to be widespread like the yesterday, spotty Extremely Critical
conditions may be observed. Otherwise, 15-20 percent RH will overlap
with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly winds for several hours
across much of the southern High Plains, warranting broad
Elevated/Critical highlights.
...Portions of the Midwest...
Before the surface low undergoes significant weakening, strong
gradient flow will persist during the afternoon, when boundary-layer
mixing will support a belt of overlapping 25 mph sustained westerly
surface winds and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. These
conditions will most likely be observed over central Iowa and
immediate surrounding areas. Such conditions are high-end Critical
for the Midwest, especially when considering that yesterday's
precipitation has not yielded meaningful accumulations, which have
also been lacking in the past few weeks. Rapid, dangerous wildfire
spread is possible wherever dry fuel beds exist, and a sparse
instance of Extremely Critical conditions cannot be ruled out.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 181935
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...Southern Plains...
Increasing west-southwest flow aloft ahead of another mid-level
shortwave trough will overspread much of the Southern Plains
Thursday. At the surface, low pressure steadily moves northeastward
from KS into the Lower MO Valley by late afternoon. Very dry
westerly to northwesterly flow south-southwest of the low and south
of an advancing cold front is expected across much of the Southern
Plains. 20+ mph west-northwesterly winds accompanying a very dry,
well-mixed boundary layer yielding daytime RH around 15 percent will
support a corridor of Critical fire weather conditions from
southeastern CO, the TX/OK Panhandles, eastward into much of OK and
far southwestern MO. In addition, the initial cold front passage and
associated north-northwest wind shift into northern TX/OK could
briefly impact active fires before cooler temperatures, lighter
winds and higher RH move into the region Thursday night. Breezy and
dry downslope flow with west winds of around 15 mph and relative
humidity of 15-20 percent will combine with dry fuels to promote an
Elevated fire weather threat across much of northwestern and far
west TX Thursday.
..Williams.. 02/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026/
...Synopsis...
Another pronounced mid-level shortwave impulse, embedded in broader
upper troughing over the western U.S., will eject into the southern
Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A surface low over the southern Plains
will approach the Ozarks during the afternoon, with dry downslope
flow expected over the southern High Plains into the southern
Plains, west of the surface low and ahead of a southward sagging
surface cold front. The downslope flow will promote dry and windy
conditions capable of supporting significant wildfire spread. By
afternoon, a belt of 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface
winds will overlap with 15 percent RH across the Texas Panhandle
into central and northeastern Oklahoma. Critical highlights have
been added where these aforementioned surface meteorological
conditions will overlap with receptive fuels that have not received
meaningful precipitation accumulations in recent weeks.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 172137
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue across the Southern Plains
through at least Day 5/Saturday. Strong mid-level westerly flow
aloft combined with surface lee trough development will support dry
and breezy conditions across the Southern Plains on Day 3-4/Thursday
and Friday, with fire weather concerns shifting southward into
southern TX on Day 5/Saturday as a cold front sweeps through the
region. Upper-level troughing moves into the eastern U.S. by early
next week, ushering in northwest flow and aiding in bringing a cold
front southward towards the Gulf Coast by Day 6/Sunday. Fire weather
concerns could emerge across portions of the Southeast and FL by Day
7/Monday, but precipitation could limit overall threat.
...Day 3/Thursday...
Dry and breezy conditions are likely to promote continued fire
weather concerns across the Southern Plains. Elevated west winds
south of a surface low in the Central Plains under a strong 80-90 kt
mid-level jet, a dry boundary layer and dry fuels should be
conducive to wildfire spread across portions of northeastern NM, TX
Panhandle and OK on Day 3/Thursday. Dry and breezy westerly flow
aided by favorable downslope conditions are anticipated farther
south across far west TX. A slight expansion of the existing 40
percent critical probability area was warranted, primarily into
eastern OK. A dry cold front diving southward and subsequent wind
shift could impact existing fires Thursday afternoon and evening
across the TX Panhandle and OK.
...Day 4/Friday...
Another embedded mid-level short wave and associated jet streak
pushes into the Southern Plains on Day 4/Friday resulting in dry and
breezy downslope flow across the High Plains of eastern NM and
western TX. A 40 percent critical probability area was shifted
northward based on latest model guidance consensus.
...Day 5/Saturday...
Dry, northerly flow in the wake of a pronounced dry cold front is
expected across southern TX on Day 5/Saturday, although cooler
post-frontal temperatures could somewhat mitigate a more significant
fire weather threat. Nonetheless, the dry and breezy north winds
along with dry fuels necessitated introduction of 40 percent
critical probabilities for much of south-central TX.
...Day 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday...
Upper-level troughing becomes established across the eastern U.S.
while ridging builds west of the Continental Divide early next week.
Dry, post-frontal flow could bring fire weather concerns back into
the Southeast and FL by Day 7/Monday. However, some uncertainty
remains in preceding Day 6/Sunday precipitation amounts across this
region, which could mitigate fire weather concerns Monday. Critical
probabilities were not introduced owing to lower predictability and
potential mitigating impacts from rainfall.
..Williams.. 02/17/2026
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