U.S. & Canada 12-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 131651
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes needed for the Day 1 outlook with no significant overlap
of elevated winds, low relative humidity and receptive fuels across
the contiguous U.S. Fuels remain quite dry across portions of
central TX and the Deep South where limited Gulf moisture return is
in place. Afternoon relative humidity in the 25-30% range is
expected, although light northerly winds across this region will
continue to limit significant fire weather concerns today.
..Williams.. 10/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025/
...Synopsis...
Preceding a deep mid/upper-level low over the West Coast, strong
deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry air mass
over the Great Basin. While this will yield dry and windy conditions
during the afternoon, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire
potential at this time.
Farther east, a light offshore-flow regime will continue to favor
warm and dry conditions across the Southeast -- where fuels are
becoming increasingly dry. However, light northerly winds should
generally mitigate the fire-weather threat.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 131948
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the Day 2 Outlook with minimal fire weather
concerns across CONUS. North to northeast winds within a dry
continental air mass will continue across much of the eastern U.S.,
keeping deeper boundary layer moisture out of the region. Above
normal temperatures and dry conditions under an upper-level ridge
will continue to dry fuels across the South on Tuesday, but light
north to northeast winds should limit overall fire spread potential.
..Williams.. 10/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025/
...Synopsis...
To the east of a midlevel anticyclone centered on east TX, warm and
dry conditions will continue across the Southeast amid a persistent
offshore-flow regime. Despite increasingly dry fuels in some areas,
fairly light northerly surface winds (around 10 mph) will generally
limit the fire risk.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday...
An upper-level trough across the West on Day 3/Wednesday will
translate northeastward into the central/northern Plains by the end
of the week. Subsequent lee cyclone development along the High
Plains in WY/CO should support a swath of enhanced southerly flow
from TX into the central Plains on days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday.
Drier fuels remain in place across central TX, but only a diffuse
overlap of higher southerly winds and sufficiently low relative
humidity is expected, limiting confidence for inclusion of critical
probabilities. Lighter east/northeast winds through midweek across
the Deep South will also mitigate fire weather concerns despite dry
and warm conditions. Dry, post frontal northwest winds across the
northeastern U.S. is expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on
Day 5/Thursday although recent rainfall should aid in mitigating
widespread concerns.
...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday...
Forecast guidance shows an amplified, progressive wave pattern
across CONUS for the weekend into early next week. A sweeping cold
front is likely to push through the eastern U.S. over the weekend
into early next week, bringing needed rainfall to the Southeast. The
frontal passage through TX on Saturday could yield a broader fire
weather concern where minimal rainfall expectations and receptive
fuels remain, but uncertainty in timing of front precludes
introduction of critical probabilities.
..Williams.. 10/13/2025
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