ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 311901

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0201 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   The previous forecast remains on track. A persisting dry airmass
   aloft and localized breezy conditions will continue to increase fuel
   receptivity across western NM and the Colorado Plateau on D2/Monday.
   Widespread RH values of 10-15% are expected in the southern Great
   Basin and Southwest, though weaker southwesterly surface winds of
   5-10 mph (locally greater in terrain-favored areas) preclude the
   introduction of broader fire weather highlights. However, given ERCs
   approaching the 90th percentile, locally elevated fire concerns may
   emerge.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited for Monday across
   the country. As with D1/Sunday, dry conditions will prevail across
   the Southwest and portions of the Great Lakes where fuels will
   remain fairly receptive. However, pressure gradient winds will
   continue to be weak owing to building high pressure over the Great
   Lakes and a combination of modest surface pressure falls and weak
   low-level flow across the southern High Plains. While localized
   elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of more prominent
   terrain features across central and northern NM, the potential for
   widespread fire weather concerns is low.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 312128

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0428 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

   Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A semi-stagnant synoptic pattern will continue through the end of
   this week. An upper low will lift into southwestern Canada on Day
   3/Tuesday, meanwhile a blocking ridge remains over the Central U.S.
   and Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure and associated dry
   conditions amid light winds will dominate over the Great Lakes
   through at least Day 4/Wednesday, then the aforementioned upper low
   translates eastward along the US/Canada border, pushing the surface
   high southward. A North Atlantic trough will transition into an
   upper low as it moves offshore the Eastern Seaboard on Day
   4/Wednesday. Much of the Plains and Mid-South will continue to see
   opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with deeper boundary
   layer moisture in place, keeping broader fire weather concerns low.
   A robust upper trough is expected to approach the Northwest on Day
   6/Friday bringing a possible pattern shift, albeit extended guidance
   diverges on overall timing and progression. 

   ...Portions of the Southwest and Colorado Plateau...
   A warming and drying trend across much of the Intermountain West and
   Southwest will continue through the period. Diffuse surface pressure
   gradients will maintain lighter winds with above normal temperatures
   and dry conditions, supporting the drying and curing of fuels. An
   intrusion of deeper atmospheric moisture into the Southwest on Day
   3/Tuesday will promote thunderstorms and appreciable precipitation
   in eastern NM. However, guidance depicts moisture will be less
   significant west of the Divide, with forecast soundings portraying a
   prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs of 0.5-0.8" amid daytime
   instability, allowing some possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms
   to evolve. 10% probabilities for Dry Thunderstorms have been
   maintained across far eastern AZ into western NM to account for this
   threat. Conditions may continue through Day 4/Wednesday, however
   higher PWATs and slower storm motions preclude the introduction of
   additional Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. 

   ...Great Lakes region...
   As the blocking pattern gradually breaks down, surface high pressure
   should reinforce warm and dry conditions across the region through
   mid-week. The upper ridge will begin to flatten on Day 4/Wednesday
   as an upper low traverses southern Canada. Very warm daytime
   temperatures and RH declining to near critical values on Day
   5/Thursday could allow fire weather concerns to emerge where
   favorable fuels exist. However, misaligned breezy winds/critical RH
   preclude the introduction of probabilities at this time, though
   trends will be monitored in future outlook cycles.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026