U.S. Alerts
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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 170557

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an
   increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade
   Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be
   expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River
   Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade
   Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around
   10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook
   to support this potential.

   ...Dry Thunderstorms...
   A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture
   northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On
   the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm
   potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into
   western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here
   precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more
   limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible
   in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around
   15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation.

   ..Thornton.. 07/17/2025
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 170558

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A deeper trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest on D2/Friday
   bringing more widespread Elevated conditions across the areas along
   and east of the Cascades. Afternoon relative humidity around 10-20
   percent will overlap sustained westerly winds at 10-15 mph (locally
   higher). Some locally Critical conditions may persist for a couple
   of hours where terrain enhancements favor locally stronger winds in
   the Cascade Gaps. 

   ...Dry Thunderstorms...
   The western shortwave will bring forcing for ascent across portions
   of northern Nevada into southern Idaho and eastern Wyoming. This
   area remains on the periphery of deeper moisture across the
   Southwest into the Great Basin. High based convection and very dry
   boundary layer conditions will favor little to no measurable
   precipitation with potential for new ignitions from lightning.

   ..Thornton.. 07/17/2025


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162133

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   ...Day 3/Friday...
   A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will
   bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds  and
   dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where
   expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread.
   Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability
   over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the
   incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based
   thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into
   southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon
   moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to
   bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation
   efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great
   Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions.

   ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday...
   A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher
   in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and
   Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week.
   Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon
   moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental
   Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate
   southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain
   on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin,
   northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent
   probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added
   to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame.
   Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest
   will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the
   region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns.

   ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday...
   Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest
   trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and
   potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits
   introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time.

   ..Williams.. 07/16/2025
      




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