Ranchettes, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

193
FXUS65 KCYS 201745
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1145 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect hot temperatures today with critical fire weather
  conditions in Carbon County.

- Thunderstorm chances will creep back up Monday and Tuesday as
  another surge of monsoon moisture arrives. A few strong to
  severe thunderstorms will be possible.

- There is potential for more widespread showers and
  thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday along with a modest
  cool down.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

GOES water vapor imagery shows a finger of fairly dry air slowly
drifting to the east across central Wyoming this morning. More
westerly flow aloft has diverted the monsoon plume to the south and
east, while Pacific moisture remains confined to the northern
Rockies. As a result, afternoon convection is expected to be much
more limited today, likely confined to some high based virga showers
in the vicinity of the higher terrain. While we will have deep
inverted-v soundings in place across the entire area, the atmosphere
is also fairly dry above the cloud base, suggesting that any showers
may be mass-limited. An isolated dry microburst can`t be ruled out,
but due to the limited mass expected in clouds, they are not
particularly likely. Otherwise, expect a hot day today with
temperatures reaching the 90s over most of the High Plains. The dry
air intrusion along with breezy westerlies will lead to some
critical fire weather conditions over Carbon county this afternoon.
A Red Flag Warning has been issued.

Heading into Monday, the broad trough sitting over the Pacific
Northwest this weekend will deep deeper into the West Coast and thus
turn the flow over the central Rockies more southerly. This will
open the tap to monsoon moisture once again. While temperatures will
be quite hot once again, we will see cloud cover increasing from the
south through the day with higher coverage of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Most of this activity will have a gusty wind
potential, but we will need to monitor the position of the
dryline, as more organized strong to severe thunderstorms could
be possible once storms encounter more favorable boundary layer
moisture. Most convective parameters look fairly marginal at
this time, but it will be sufficient to get a few strong to
severe thunderstorms going.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025


Tuesday looks fairly similar to Monday with hot temperatures
continuing and modest moisture pushing in aloft continuing a chance
for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Ensemble guidance suggests that the low levels will remain fairly
dry on Tuesday. This looks to change on Wednesday into Thursday as
the upper level trough begins to migrate eastward out of the Pacific
northwest and across the northern Rockies. Ensembles are in better
agreement showing higher surface dewpoints pushing up against the
Laramie Range into early Wednesday, while a southerly plume of
monsoon moisture aloft keeps mid to upper level moisture high. This
combination will push precipitable waters to fairly high levels,
with the NAEFS mean hovering around the 90th percentile Wednesday
into early Thursday. It is too early to get into the details of
convective parameters at this time, but plentiful moisture and
decent forcing suggest much greater coverage of showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday, and possibly Thursday & Friday too.
Expect to see a modest cool down for these days as well.

A warmer and drier weather pattern is increasingly likely possibly
beginning Friday and extending into the weekend. However, ensemble
guidance remains somewhat inconsistent on whether this will be
typical mid-summer heat, or a more noteworthy/unusual heat wave.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Minimal aviation impacts are expected this afternoon as high
pressure sits over the region. Cannot rule out a few virga showers,
mainly across southeast Wyoming terminals. This could lead to some
gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of showers. Quiet and dry
conditions are expected to continue overnight.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ421-422-
     427.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...SF