Jackson, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

006
FXUS65 KRIW 061019
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
419 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure dominates the weather pattern through the end of
  the week. Warm and dry weather persists as a result.

- Fire weather threat will be limited due to light winds.

- Models continue to hint at trough for next weekend, but very
  low confidence on details due to significant model
  disagreement.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Picture the perfect October morning: the cool air bites through your
sweater as you sit on the front porch sipping coffee and watching
the yellow aspen leaves dancing in the sunrise. Frost sparkles in
the grass. The air smells crisp and fresh. Got that vision in your
head? Great! Now hold onto that feeling in your mind because the
weather for the next week won`t allow you much opportunity to
experience it in real life. Instead, we continue with weather that
is more indicative of mid-August, not October.

High pressure builds across the region today. But instead of
smelling the fresh crisp air, many of us will be smelling wildfire
smoke from the Fish Creek/Pack Trail fires northwest of Dubois or
the Elk fire in the northern Bighorns. HRRR smoke forecasts indicate
that thick smoke plumes from the aforementioned fires will persist at
least through Monday. Other fires burning across ID/MT also are
contributing to the hazy and smoky skies. If you can see through the
haze, skies will be mostly clear today. Temperatures will be
comparable to yesterday, though maybe a degree or two warmer
depending on where you are and how much solar filtering the smoke
provides today.

Elevated fire weather will be something to note today, though winds
will remain much lighter than we have seen the past two days. Across
the southwest, westerly winds gusting 15 to 25 mph will occur this
afternoon for a few hours, and RHs will be near critical thresholds,
so have decided to go with an RFD for the elevated fire concern.
Monday will see similar conditions to today, though maybe a degree
or two warmer and RHs a percent or two drier. Thus, the elevated
fire weather threat will continue across the same areas tomorrow
afternoon.

Tuesday, a weak shortwave will move through during the afternoon.
Models had been hinting at some spotty precipitation on yesterday`s
model runs with this wave, but the latest runs have all but
completely evaporated any precipitation chances. That being said, an
isolated virga shower or two is certainly not out of the question
across the southwest on Tuesday afternoon, but chances are <5%.
Otherwise, expect much of the same (warm, dry, slight afternoon
breezes) through Friday. Breezy conditions and lowest RHs do not
look to align after Monday, so elevated fire weather concerns remain
limited through the end of the week. The gradual warming trend
will continue through the week, with many east of the Divide
basins reaching 80 by Wednesday.

For the weekend, models continue to hint at a Pacific trough moving
into the area. The GFS remains the more bullish model, but has
backed off since yesterday on intensity of the trough, more as a
progressive wave than a closed low system. The ECMWF remains with a
ridge , though does hint at the same system but as a weak shortwave
that gets absorbed by the ridge. Given considerable model
disagreement, confidence remains low on forecast details beyond
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 416 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Winds should light to moderate over the next 24 hours, save for
typical mid- afternoon breezes. Patchy smoke from area
wildfires are likely to reduce surface visibility at times,
especially for KLND, KRIW, and the Wind River Basin. Besides
smoke, skies will be cloud-free, with no ceilings expected.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT Monday for WYZ010-016>018.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hensley
AVIATION...Hattings