Casper, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

185
FXUS65 KRIW 142313
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
413 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures and quiet conditions persist across the
  Cowboy State today.

- A nearby disturbance looks to bring chances for strong gusty
  winds over portions of Johnson County late Thursday through
  Friday.

- A cold front associated with that disturbance will bring a
  brief period of cooler temperatures to the state for Friday.

- Warm and quiet conditions return to the region for the weekend
  into the start of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Warm and uneventful weather prevails across the state today and
for much of Thursday. One update regarding the short term
forecast is the chance for strong gusty winds across parts of
Johnson County Thursday into Friday. Hi-res models have begun to
show more detail regarding the setup as a disturbance moves to
the east of the area. However, a potent jet streak associated
with this disturbance looks to clip portions of eastern and
northern WY. Our CWA will remain mainly unaffected with the one
exception being Johnson County. Some models are showing strong
700 mb winds of 60 to 70 knots move across this area. There are
also some signals these strong winds may make their way into
portions of the Bighorn Basin and Natrona County. However, at
this time the greatest confidence remains over Johnson County.
Probabilistic guidance shows a 50-80% chance for winds gusts of
55 mph or more mainly over Johnson County especially nearby
Buffalo and into eastern parts of the county. These winds look
to be in association with the cold front passage so along with
strong gusty winds, temperatures will quickly drop as winds
increase. Overnight apparent temperatures Thursday into Friday
for Johnson County are likely to near the single digits due to
the combination of the strong winds and colder temperatures. As
a result of the increasing likelihood for wind gusts in excess
of 55 mph, High Wind Watches have been issued for Johnson
County, starting Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.
Other locations such as Natrona County and parts of the Bighorn
Basin may be added but at this time confidence is not high
enough to warrant any highlights. Otherwise the remainder of the
previous discussion remains unchanged with mild and mostly
quiet conditions returning for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Upper level ridging continues to dominate the western CONUS with
a high centered over northern California. A weak frontal
boundary scraped eastern portions of the CWA east of the
Bighorns that brought some breezy winds and a few showers. The
only widespread impact will be a cooler start to Wednesday
morning but warming right back up to 10 to 20 degrees above
average once again in the afternoon and again Thursday. The main
finger of the PFJ continues to be blocked to the north into
Canada before it dives south into the upper Great Plains and
Missouri River Basin. The much colder temperatures remain for
the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes Region bringing some of
that southward to even the Gulf of America. For our part of the
country, some breezy winds, ample sunshine, and dry conditions
continue to be the story.

Thursday will see a similar occurrence as Tuesday with a late
date frontal passage but with a strong shortwave supporting it.
The PFJ retreats westward across the state allowing for isolated
shower activity east of the Divide but not much to it with
ensemble guidance. 10-20% PoP the best that can be done.
However, colder temperatures will come for Friday, albeit only
seasonable for the middle of January. As the trough pushes
east, ridging builds back in for the weekend as increasing
convergence weakens the divergence aloft with the coldest of
temperatures expected to push as far south as northeast Texas
and northern Louisiana/Mississippi. This pattern looks to
continue into next week with a blocking ridge for western CONUS
and a deep, potent trough for the eastern half of the country.
Longer term model solutions continue to be more aligned with
bringing in a more zonal pattern by late next week that will
open up the Pacific moisture for the CWA. However, as with this
pattern, areas west of the Divide will mainly be impacted with
snowfall but a more widespread cooler pattern will be had by all
even if just seasonable for January 22nd onward towards the end
of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions through the period as high pressure influences the
area. A mostly clear sky through the period, with passing high,
cirrus clouds at times. Winds remain relatively light, with normal
diurnal patterns at sites. The HRRR is indicating some downvalley
winds at KRIW tonight.

A cold front approaches the area towards the end of the period, with
TAFs starting to reflect a gusty north wind shift and increasing
high clouds.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon for WYZ010-011.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dziewaltowski
DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Wittmann