Racine, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

833
FXUS63 KMKX 150257
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
857 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low temperatures around 10F tonight with wind chills around
  zero.

- Light accumulating snow Thursday late afternoon and evening
  and again Friday morning, with patchy freezing drizzle in
  between. This could impact the Thursday evening and Friday
  morning commutes.

- Cold temperatures continue this weekend into next week, with
  several additional chances for light snow showers.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 855 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Forecast remains on track this evening. Have been watching
scattered low cloud development across the eastern half of the
area, which is likely being driven at least partially by very
cold 925-850 mb temperatures moving into the region. Model
analysis from the RAP indicates temps near or just below zero in
this layer, which would translate to a ~15 degree vertical temp
difference in the near-surface layer. Thus likely seeing some
overturning develop in the boundary layer this evening, allowing
for the aforementioned cloud formation to occur. Also seeing
some lake effect clouds near the lakeshore in Milwaukee, Racine,
and Kenosha Counties. Will likely see scattered clouds stick
around through at least the first half of the overnight hours,
which will keep temperatures from bottoming out entirely.
Currently to the west, arriving high pressure should flush out
clouds closer to daybreak tomorrow morning.

Quigley

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 313 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

Skies (and light snow showers/flurries) are clearing quickly
from northwest to southeast this afternoon as drier air works
into the area. With the cold air mass in place, lows are
expected to get down to around 9F for inland areas and 11 or 12
for the lakeshore counties. With winds diminishing but still
steady, the wind chill values will be around zero through the
night.

An area of warm advection out ahead of low pressure approaching
from the northern Plains will arrive late Thursday afternoon.
This will likely bring a round of light snow, up to an inch, to
south central and southeast WI during the evening. The arrival
time is still uncertain since this is associated with a weak
upper level shortwave, but it could arrive as early as 5 PM in
Madison and impact the Thursday evening commute.

This snow will be powdery since the growth zone is between -8
and -10C. Once the forcing with this waa passes, then we could
have a period of freezing drizzle (no ice crystals) during the
Thursday overnight hours.

A robust shortwave will swing across the Upper Midwest and
across IA and northern IL/southern WI Friday morning. This will
bring just enough forcing for deep enough moisture for ice
crystals, although the amount of moisture is limited. So another
period of light snow (less than an inch) is expected and will
impact the Friday morning commute. Brisk westerly winds up to 30
mph are expected during the day Friday.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 313 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Friday afternoon through Wednesday:

As the surface low continues to move into the Upper Great Lakes
region through the day Friday, expect its progress to slow and
meander around peninsulas of upper and lower MI into Saturday.
Mid-range models continue to support a brief lull in the snow
activity later Friday morning/afternoon as a brief dry slot works
its way in behind the morning round of snow. Then another round
more showery snow is expected as the upper-level low and mid-
level dCVA swings through the region on the backside of the
surface low paired with a reinforcing cold front. This will
likely result in a prolonged periods of light showery snow
chances across portions of southern WI with scattered
accumulations beginning later Friday afternoon/evening and
continue into Saturday morning. Unlike the morning round, this
round will be accompanied by a strong CAA push of the Arctic
air and the arrival of much colder temps ranging from single
digits to the teens through Friday night. Thus trends toward
developing slick travel conditions and impacts to the Friday
evening commute lingering into Saturday with drops in visibility
and refreezing of any wet/untreated surfaces. Snow chances briefly
diminish later Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds into
the region.

However, expecting the active, Arctic pattern to continue through
the start of next week. There is a consensus between the long
range models based on WPC Cluster Analysis of the 500mb trough
settling over the Upper Midwest through the middle of next week.
With this established pattern, expect well below normal temps and
trend for even colder wind chills across southern WI through the
start of next week. With the upper-level northwesterly flow, could
see periodic bouts of snow that may accompany any embedded mid-
level disturbances paired with a blob of Pacific moisture tracking
through the trough.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 855 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR flight categories continue through the majority of the
period. FEW to SCT clouds based between FL030 and FL040 have
developed in inland locations, and will likely persist through
the first half of the overnight. Have also noted lake-effect
clouds based between FL030 and FL040 in the vicinity of MKE and
ENW. Have accounted for cloud trends through the overnight
period in the 03Z amendment. Currently to the west of the
region, high pressure will move into southern Wisconsin later
tonight/early Thursday morning, allowing gusty northwest winds
to taper. Mid-level clouds will thicken Thursday afternoon as
high pressure shifts east and the next disturbance approaches
from the west. Expect said disturbance to bring SN and some
FZDZ late Thursday afternoon and night. Have accounted for this
potential with PROB30 groups near the end of the 24 hour period
at MSN and JVL, and with a prevailing group near the end of the
30 hour period at MKE. Additional mentions will become necessary
at other terminals in the 06Z forecast.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 313 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Low pressure over western Pennsylvania will slide across New
York tonight while deepening. Meanwhile, high pressure will
expand across Wisconsin tonight and then cross the Upper Great
Lakes on Thursday. Northerly gales to 40 knots will continue
into the evening hours and drop below gales around midnight.
Moderate freezing spray is expected through tonight. Winds will
shift around to the south Thursday afternoon.

Once the gales diminish for the nearshore area of southeast WI
around mid evening, a Small Craft Advisory goes into effect
until mid Thursday morning. The next round of gusty westerly
winds will arrive Friday afternoon and we will likely need
another Small Craft Advisory.

Low pressure will cross Lake Superior on Friday, and stall over
the lower Great Lakes Saturday while weakening. A weaker low will
track across Lake Superior Sunday afternoon. Several waves of
colder air on the back side of the lows will overspread Lake
Michigan on gusty westerly winds Friday night through Sunday
night. Freezing spray will remain a concern given the very cold
temperatures. A period of gales is possible Sunday night.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9
     AM Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until midnight
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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