Madison, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

103
FXUS63 KMKX 190823
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
323 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light winds and dry today and tonight.

- Increased rain chances (70-90%) for Sunday afternoon into
  Monday morning with the heaviest rainfall along and northwest
  of the lower Wisconsin River Valley.

- Warm up Tuesday onward with well above normal highs for the
  middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 319 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Today and Tonight:

Lingering low-level clouds will linger across southern WI
through the early morning hours behind the cold front. This
will also result in pockets of drizzle/mist mainly across
eastern half of the CWA. Otherwise, seeing the cooler airmass
settle into southern WI this morning as temps drop into the 40s
with the northwesterly flow. Will see temps gradually rise
through the day as skies are progged to clear with the incoming
subsidence from surface high pressure and building upper-level
ridge around the region. Looking at highs to top off in the 50s
across much of the area. Given the lighter winds and increased
temp gradient between inland and Lake Michigan, would not be
surprised to see a lake breeze develop and push inland later
this afternoon. This would bring a "cooler by the lake" setup
and depending on how quickly it sets up make ultimately impact
the highs for the lakeshore areas. Nevertheless, will still see
near to slightly below normal temps today.

Light winds, clear skies as the surface high tracks across WI
overnight will lead to cooler, but near normal overnight lows
in the mid to upper 30s. Cannot rule out dipping colder in some
spots given this setup toward  the freezing mark. And although
we are not quite in the growing season per say, this setup
would lend way to the potential for some frosty conditions
overnight into early Sunday morning.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 319 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Sunday through Friday:

Low pressure developing over the central Plains early Sunday
morning will track northeastward throughout the day as high
pressure over the Great Lakes region retreats. Pressure
gradient between these two systems will create an easterly wind
field Sunday, which will allow cool / stable air to advect in
from Lake Michigan, holding Lake MI shoreline high temperatures
to the upper 40s. It is tough to determine how long the blocking
influence of the high will hold, but mostly dry weather is
expected for Sunday morning, followed by increasing chances for
rain (from south to north) as the low pressure draws closer,
peaking Sunday evening / Sunday night.

Looking at a potential for additional soaking rainfall amounts
as the low pressure tracks across the area. This evening`s NBM
run favors the highest QPF swath along and just northwest of the
lower half of the Wisconsin River Valley with high (>80%)
chance for half an inch or more and even >60% chance of seeing 1
inch or more for a 24hr period between Sunday and Monday.
Similar trends are seen with the 00z ECMWF ensembles as well as
CMC ensembles, while the GFS ensembles favors the heavier swath
more northwestward. Nevertheless, additional rainfall is
looking increasingly more likely across our northwestern portion
of the CWA while areas to the southeast still may see rainfall,
but generally looking at lower overall QPF totals of less than
a half an inch through Monday.

Models have a decent consensus on the low pressure track,
taking it northeastward through southern Wisconsin Sunday night
/ Monday morning. Both the timing of the approach and the
easterly wind field off Lake Michigan are likely to inhibit
severe storm potential, though we would not be surprised to hear
a few rumbles of thunder at night or on Monday. Rain lingers
into Monday morning, decreasing chances into the afternoon.

CAA behind the departing low will be very short lived, allowing
another low pressure over the Dakotas Tuesday morning to resume
southerly WAA, leading to noticeably warmer temperatures and a
chance for Tuesday PM / Tuesday night showers and thunderstorms.
Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast through the end of next week.

Sheppard/Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 319 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

MVFR/IFR ceilings with a few pockets of LIFR in southeastern WI
will linger through the remainder of the early morning. Also
seeing lower visibility accompanying the lower ceilings
associated with drizzle/misty conditions, mainly for areas
closer to Lake Michigan. Expecting to see these conditions
gradually improve through the morning as high pressure begins
to build into the the Upper Midwest. Looking at lighter winds
and VFR conditions for the afternoon through the evening.
However given the light winds today, cannot rule out seeing a
lake breeze develop this afternoon and push inland. This will
likely result in a brief period of gusty winds accompanied by an
easterly wind shift for terminals closer to the lakefront (MKE,
ENW, and SBM).

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 319 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Drier conditions and lighter northerly winds are expected today
as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Will see
more variable winds overnight tonight as the high pressure
builds as it pushes over Lake Michigan. Then the high pressure
quickly shifts eastward as low pressure lifts into the area from
the southern Plains. Expect increasing east to northeasterly
winds to develop by Sunday as Lake Michigan sits in between the
departing high and an approaching low. As the low pressure lifts
northeastward across the northern half of Lake Michigan, it
will deepen on Monday with southerly winds ahead of it during
the day then becoming northwest behind it Monday night. Higher
waves are expected on to accompany the breezier southerly winds,
particularly across the central half of the lake. Sunday into
Monday looks to be window for small craft conditions during this
timeframe.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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