Madison, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS63 KMKX 142113
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
313 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low temperatures around 10F tonight with wind chills around
  zero.

- Light accumulating snow Thursday late afternoon and evening
  and again Friday morning, with patchy freezing drizzle in
  between. This could impact the Thursday evening and Friday
  morning commutes.

- Cold temperatures continue this weekend into next week, with
  several additional chances for light snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 313 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

Skies (and light snow showers/flurries) are clearing quickly
from northwest to southeast this afternoon as drier air works
into the area. With the cold air mass in place, lows are
expected to get down to around 9F for inland areas and 11 or 12
for the lakeshore counties. With winds diminishing but still
steady, the wind chill values will be around zero through the
night.

An area of warm advection out ahead of low pressure approaching
from the northern Plains will arrive late Thursday afternoon.
This will likely bring a round of light snow, up to an inch, to
south central and southeast WI during the evening. The arrival
time is still uncertain since this is associated with a weak
upper level shortwave, but it could arrive as early as 5 PM in
Madison and impact the Thursday evening commute.

This snow will be powdery since the growth zone is between -8
and -10C. Once the forcing with this waa passes, then we could
have a period of freezing drizzle (no ice crystals) during the
Thursday overnight hours.

A robust shortwave will swing across the Upper Midwest and
across IA and northern IL/southern WI Friday morning. This will
bring just enough forcing for deep enough moisture for ice
crystals, although the amount of moisture is limited. So another
period of light snow (less than an inch) is expected and will
impact the Friday morning commute. Brisk westerly winds up to 30
mph are expected during the day Friday.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 313 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Friday afternoon through Wednesday:

As the surface low continues to move into the Upper Great Lakes
region through the day Friday, expect its progress to slow and
meander around peninsulas of upper and lower MI into Saturday.
Mid-range models continue to support a brief lull in the snow
activity later Friday morning/afternoon as a brief dry slot works
its way in behind the morning round of snow. Then another round
more showery snow is expected as the upper-level low and mid-
level dCVA swings through the region on the backside of the
surface low paired with a reinforcing cold front. This will
likely result in a prolonged periods of light showery snow
chances across portions of southern WI with scattered
accumulations beginning later Friday afternoon/evening and
continue into Saturday morning. Unlike the morning round, this
round will be accompanied by a strong CAA push of the Arctic
air and the arrival of much colder temps ranging from single
digits to the teens through Friday night. Thus trends toward
developing slick travel conditions and impacts to the Friday
evening commute lingering into Saturday with drops in visibility
and refreezing of any wet/untreated surfaces. Snow chances briefly
diminish later Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds into
the region.

However, expecting the active, Arctic pattern to continue through
the start of next week. There is a consensus between the long
range models based on WPC Cluster Analysis of the 500mb trough
settling over the Upper Midwest through the middle of next week.
With this established pattern, expect well below normal temps and
trend for even colder wind chills across southern WI through the
start of next week. With the upper-level northwesterly flow, could
see periodic bouts of snow that may accompany any embedded mid-
level disturbances paired with a blob of Pacific moisture tracking
through the trough.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 313 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Skies will continue to clear from southwest to northeast through
early evening. Cloud bases are around 3500FT except within the
scattered snow showers. Visibility drops to 2SM are also being
observed within the snow showers. Northerly wind gusts up to 35
KT will begin diminishing around sunset.

Lighter winds and mostly clear skies are expected tonight into
Thu morning, then southerly winds will develop in the afternoon.
Light snow is expected by early Thursday evening. A light
accumulation of up to an inch is expected Thu evening into the
overnight hours with the southerly breeze. Winds will shift to
the west early Friday morning and an additional round of light
snow (less than an inch) is likely. Freezing drizzle is possible
between these two periods of snow during the overnight hours
Thu nt.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 313 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Low pressure over western Pennsylvania will slide across New
York tonight while deepening. Meanwhile, high pressure will
expand across Wisconsin tonight and then cross the Upper Great
Lakes on Thursday. Northerly gales to 40 knots will continue
into the evening hours and drop below gales around midnight.
Moderate freezing spray is expected through tonight. Winds will
shift around to the south Thursday afternoon.

Once the gales diminish for the nearshore area of southeast WI
around mid evening, a Small Craft Advisory goes into effect
until mid Thursday morning. The next round of gusty westerly
winds will arrive Friday afternoon and we will likely need
another Small Craft Advisory.

Low pressure will cross Lake Superior on Friday, and stall over
the lower Great Lakes Saturday while weakening. A weaker low will
track across Lake Superior Sunday afternoon. Several waves of
colder air on the back side of the lows will overspread Lake
Michigan on gusty westerly winds Friday night through Sunday
night. Freezing spray will remain a concern given the very cold
temperatures. A period of gales is possible Sunday night.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until midnight
     Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Wednesday.

 Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 PM
Wednesday until 9 AM Thursday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee