Weirton, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

911
FXUS61 KPBZ 201137
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
737 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will return on Sunday with some
convection lasting into the overnight. Some severe/flooding
potential will be in place. High pressure returns for Monday
and continue through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Severe potential for today into tonight, with damaging wind
  gusts being the most likely threat. Possible flooding south of
  I-70.

---------------------------------------------------------------

The Sunday period will feature the continued northwest flow
pattern with a signal featuring the MCS pattern continuing.
However, there has been little to increase confidence as there
has been little organization to get a complex going. That said,
a few showers and thunderstorms will likely be lingering through
the dawn hours. These cells will pose little if any through
through dawn. A few instances of fog will also be possible
through dawn.

Heading into the coming day, lingering weak convection in the
form of scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms will be
the case for the entire area through 18Z before the convection
weakens a bit. The next rounds timing appears to be between 20Z
and 00Z. However, the lingering convection to the northeast may
weaken any instability in place and thus the trends in the hi-
res models have been pushing the convection, or storm track of
the MCS more to the southwest impacting ILN and RLX forecast
areas more directly and giving the PBZ area a "glancing blow"
with the convection. If this does come to pass, then the main
threat will be wind.

Hi-res models do suggest the 02Z to 06Z period to have a cluster
of storms develop over the area south of I-70 but the timing and
lack of upper level support might suggest barely Marginal
threats. Admittedly, there will be a gradient in MU CAPE values
from 02Z to 06Z over the SE OH and N WV area where values of
from 300 J/Kg in Greene County, to 1500 J/Kg over Marion and
Preston in WV. Thus, confidence will be low, but still anything
that materializes will be a strong wind threat with the
potential for an isolated flood issue. Expect the showers to
linger through 12Z with the potential of fog developing again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:


- High pressure keeping a dry Mon through Wed in place.
- Heat returns by Wednesday.

----------------------------------------------------------------

There is good confidence among the ensembles that strong ridging
builds over the Mississippi Valley and into the eastern CONUS next
week from Monday into Tuesday night. Along with crossing high
pressure to our north, a mainly dry pattern appears to extend
into Tuesday, with the potential for subsidence/warm air aloft
to suppress convection.

The ridge continues to build into Wednesday leading to an
increase in temperatures and heat indices. NBM probabilities of
90+ highs increase to 40-70% over much of the area by
Wednesday. The ridge may very well begin to break down by this
time but at this point, it seems Wednesday will be dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Heat and humidity increase for Thursday
- Shower/thunderstorm chances increase Thursday and into
  weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The heat is expected to increase on Thursday with a 60% to 70%
prob of seeing temperatures above 90 degrees. The dew points
being anomaly high this year will mean that the heat index
values may press into the upper 90s to near 100.

Shortwaves riding the top of the ridge may begin to suppress heights
slightly by the Thursday/Friday period.  This could lead to better
rain chances during this period. Longer-range machine learning
guidance suggests an uptick in severe storm potential as well, which
makes sense given the amount of instability/moisture that may be
available. The activity will certainly continue into the week
with this pattern being more problematic with the continued
above normal temps, above normal dew points, and return flow
being the main driver of activity. The 500MB flow over the
normal may suggest a return to a MCS like pattern heading into
the weekend as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak 700mb wave will cross the region early this morning that
will promote scattered light to locally moderate rain showers
favoring KPIT and south. This mention was only included at MGW
tracking near term trends. Lightning probability will be low
(less than 20 percent), so the main shower impact is expected to
be rain that aids boundary layer moistening to develop MVFR to
low probability IFR cigs.

Diurnal mixing should lift ceilings by 18z, but the approach of
a surface cold front may cause MVFR cigs to linger slightly at
FKL/DUJ. The front will traverse the region NW to SE mainly
after 18z but weak forcing and limited heating due to various
cloud decks is trending to produce only isolated showers.
Lightning can`t be ruled out, but the probability of either
impacting a terminal is below 30% and thus left out of TAF
suite. Exception is a late mention at ZZV where it will be
closer to potential late day storm cluster movement but model
trends have shifted higher probabilities towards SW Ohio.

Ceilings are expected to fall again overnight with some cooling
and moisture along the cold front, which will be most likely
south of PIT. North, most models favor at least scattering to
clear skies with the arrival of drier air behind the front.
Because of this, the only port with a >50% chance of MVFR is MGW
for now near daybreak Monday. Mixing and scattering to
widespread VFR is likely thereafter.

Outlook...
High pressure and dry advection within NW flow should promote
VFR conditions Sunday night, though some lag in surface dry
advection may allow for low probability fog at valley sites.
There also appears to be a 30 to 40 percent probability for
convection along the exiting front between 00z to 06z Sunday
from ZZV/MGW that may cause impacts and aid cig/vis
restrictions.

High confidence exists in high pressure promoting dry weather
and VFR conditions Monday through at least Thursday morning
before precipitation chances return late week into next weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...CL/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Frazier/Milcarek