Teays Valley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

482
FXUS61 KRLX 142101
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
501 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have expanded the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to include
Braxton, Webster, and Pocahontas Counties. In addition, have
updated PoPs over the next few hours to represent the latest
trends. The initial wave of open warm sector storms continues to
shift east-northeast across the northeast portion of our CWA,
and should exit over the next hour or two. The second wave of
storms, a line along the cold front, is just now entering the
far northwest portion of the CWA in southeast Ohio, and will
continue to shift southeast through the evening. The main threat
with this will be damaging winds, but an isolated brief tornado
and sub-severe hail are also possible.

128 PM Update...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through 9 PM this evening
across portions of northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio.

1245 PM Update...
18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms and flooding will be possible today and
again on Thursday.

2) A period of dry weather is expected Monday through Wednesday with
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon
and this evening ahead of an advancing cold front. Isolated strong
cells may develop ahead of this evening`s main line of thunderstorms.
An unstable airmass will develop this afternoon and evening with
MLCAPE values of 500 to 1,500 J/kg. In addition, shear will be
strong at 35-45 kts, and this will provide support for organized
severe thunderstorm development. Shear will be strongest across
the northern half of the area with potential for a few rotating
supercells ahead of this evening`s main line of thunderstorms,
which is why the Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight
risk of severe weather today in this area. A very moist airmass
with PWAT values of 1.80 to 2.00 inches will lead to heavy
downpours, and multiple thunderstorms that move over the same
areas could create localized flooding issues.

There will be an additional severe thunderstorm and flooding threat
Thursday ahead of another cold front. Models suggest moderate to
strong instability (MLCAPE 700-1,600 J/kg) will develop ahead of the
front with robust 0-6 km bulk shear (35-45 kts). In addition, a very
moist airmass will be positioned ahead of the frontal boundary with
PWATs potentially anywhere from 2.00 to 2.25 inches. Although there
is still some question regarding the exact timing of the severe and
flooding threats, SPC has a 15% severe risk placed across the region
Thursday and WPC is forecasting a slight risk of excessive rainfall.
We will watch this threat closely over the next several days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A period of dry and comfortable weather will unfold Monday through
Wednesday with high pressure in place. Monday`s high temperatures
will be in the lower to middle 70s. Temperatures will rebound into
the lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. The air will begin to turn more
humid Wednesday in a prefrontal airmass with dew point temperatures
returning to the lower 60s. Thursday will definitely be more hot and
humid area-wide with high temperatures in the upper 80s and dew
points returning to the 70s. Behind Thursday`s cold frontal passage,
temperatures will drop back into the lower 80s Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are currently seen area-wide with light to
moderate winds out of the southwest. Thunderstorms will develop
late this afternoon and into the evening hours, with the prime
window for thunderstorms being between 21Z today and 03Z Monday.
Any thunderstorm that develops will bring variably gusty winds
and visibility reductions to MVFR or IFR for a brief time.

Winds will shift to become northwesterly after 00Z Monday as a
cold front passes through. Winds will then become mostly calm
during the early morning hours, but breezy conditions may
continue at KBKW.

Fog and low ceilings are expected to develop during the predawn
hours, after 08Z Monday. Fog and low ceilings should dissipate
by 14Z. IFR conditions are expected in fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorms may vary. Timing
of overnight restrictions in fog and low ceilings may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions in fog is possible Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GW/26
AVIATION...26