Teays Valley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

936
FXUS61 KRLX 231138
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
638 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Wintry mountain precipitation diminishes today as low pressure
to our northeast pulls away. Dry Sunday into Monday. Rain
returns Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 625 AM Saturday...

Have ended the Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm
Warnings across the lower mountainous terrain, leaving only the
Blizzard Warnings for southeast Randolph and northwest
Pocahontas counties until 10 AM this morning, and the Winter
Storm Warnings for southeast Webster and southeast Nicholas
counties, now until 2 PM this afternoon. Winter Storm Warnings
still follow the Blizzard Warnings, and go until 7 PM this
evening.

As of 355 AM Saturday...

Precipitation was becoming increasingly confined to areas in
and near the mountains this morning, in west to northwest flow
behind a low pressure system well off the New England coast.
Meanwhile, sub-freezing temperatures had become confined to
areas above 3000 feet.

Thus will end the Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm
Warnings across the lower mountainous terrain, leaving only the
Blizzard Warnings for southeast Randolph and northwest
Pocahontas counties, and the Winter Storm Warnings for southeast
Webster and southeast Nicholas counties. Furthermore, will cut
back the end time of the remaining Winter Storm Warnings to
early this afternoon, as opposed to this evening.

The large, swirling system becomes stacked over Nova Scotia by
this evening, and then swirls about that area tonight. The wrap
around warm advection that took out the snow-supporting cold air
across the lower elevations Friday had become neutral early this
morning, and will remain so. However, the subsidence inversion
lowers this afternoon and evening, taking out the mid level
moisture and confining the low level moisture to an increasingly
shallow layer.

Upslope precipitation will gradually diminish today as the
inversion lowers, tapering off as drizzle/freezing drizzle over
the higher terrain as the moist layer becomes too shallow to
support ice nucleation in cloud. The freezing drizzle may
produce minimal ice accretion today.

Otherwise the low clouds persist through tonight with the low
level moisture trapped below the inversion. This, along with
the neutral advection, keeps temperatures from moving much.

While still gusty, winds have diminished since Friday. Gusty
winds will persist much of the day today, before diminishing in
ernest tonight, as high pressure begins to build into the area
from the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

Despite a strong low level inversion, low clouds eventually mix out
through late Sunday morning/early Sunday afternoon with temperatures
rising into the lower to middle 50s from their morning lows in the
lower to mid 30s.

More mild conditions return Monday as southwesterly flow increases
ahead of a quick hitting northern stream shortwave glancing the
region to the north. This will also bring our next chance of
precipitation, mainly for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday
morning. Precipitation amounts with this system are expected to be
relatively light, up to perhaps a quarter of an inch. Surface
temperatures will support all liquid hydrometeors at all
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

Dry conditions return briefly Wednesday before a southern stream
system approaches Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day. Initial
precipitation type across the lowlands will be liquid, with snow
possible above 3500 ft. Heading into Thanksgiving evening, we`ll get
into cold advection with a switchover to at least a mix of rain and
snow for the lower elevations possible. Still seeing some
differences in parcel trajectories off the Upper Great Lakes that
would greatly impact the longevity of any showers heading into
Friday morning and potentially continuing into the weekend.
Probabilistic guidance isn`t hinting at much risk of any impactful
lowland snow accumulations, but does indicate at least some
potential of low end advisory snow amounts in the mountains Friday
into Saturday with 20-30% chances of 4" in 24 hours. Browsing
through individual member solutions there is a non-trivial cluster
of solutions that would yield a period of persistent northwesterly
flow lingering into Saturday. At this time, forecast confidence
for the return travel period of the holiday weekend is low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Saturday...

Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings persist in west to northwest
flow behind a low pressure system well off the New England
coast. Light rain and drizzle with MVFR to IFR visibility mainly
in and near the mountains will gradually diminish this morning.
Even so, ceilings are likely to remain IFR to MVFR through
tonight, while snow and wind, drizzle/freezing drizzle will
keep higher ridges obscured much of today.

Clearing may start to take place from the south toward dawn
Sunday, with BKW scattering out.

The west to west-northwest surface flow will be gusty at times,
but not as strong as on Friday, with peak gusts around 25 kts,
today, higher across the higher ridges. Surface flow will start
diminishing this afternoon, becoming light southwest tonight.
Moderate to strong northwest flow aloft will only gradually
slacken to light to moderate west through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions in
light rain will vary, mainly this morning. Ceilings could
fluctuate, mainly between IFR and MVFR, through tonight. Gusty
winds will fluctuate today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 11/23/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR ceilings at least in and near the mountains Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ520-
     522.
     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ523-526.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM