Teays Valley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

382
FXUS61 KRLX 150731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
331 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather stretches across the work week amid strong upper
level ridging. A moisture starved cold frontal passage today
will bring cooler weather to close out the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

Early morning satellite imagery shows a strong fog signature
along our mainstem rivers and their tributaries, with
visibilities reduced to a mile or less at local airports. Will
continue to monitor satellite trends and traffic webcams for
possible need of a Special Weather Statement or a Dense Fog
Advisory ahead of this morning`s commute.

The latest surface analysis paints a cold front through the
lower Ohio Valley up into the eastern Great Lakes region. This
boundary is slated to travel through the forecast area today,
imposing little to no impacts during the course of its passage.
Increased cloud cover is likely to transpire in the next few
hours along the front and will gradually scatter out this
afternoon and evening. An influential upper level ridge parked
to our west has retained enough dry air over the region to
reduce any showers or storms from developing along the front,
yielding a dry forecast for today.

In the wake of the front, winds veer out of the northwest by
this evening, inviting cooler air associated with building high
pressure to filter down into the area. This will yield
overnight low temperatures to bottom out into the 30s and
potential frost formation for parts of the northeast West
Virginia mountains by Thursday morning. Opted to hoist a Frost
Advisory for areas most susceptible to the anticipated frost
development starting late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

High pressure perusing the Upper Great Lakes region at the start
of the forecast period will gradually pivot down into the Mid-
Atlantic for the end of the work week. This surface feature will
supply predominantly dry weather across the Central Appalachians
and a subtle warming trend for Thursday and Friday. Daytime
highs on Thursday will range closer to their climatological norm
for this time of year in the wake of Wednesday`s dry cold front,
but will rise back into the 60s and 70s for Friday afternoon.

By late Thursday night, the center of the surface high is
progged to be positioned over the forecast area, yielding strong
radiational cooling amid clear skies and weak surface flow. As a
result, much of the forecast area will see overnight lows plunge
down into the mid to upper 30s, with mountain locations dropping
near or below freezing. Additional frost/freeze headlines will
likely be needed for Thursday night, but will hold off from
doing so with this forecast package to allow more time to key
in on potential affected counties and the impacts from this
upcoming freeze.

Only other thing of note within the short term period will be
the abundant amounts of dry air noted on forecast soundings
parked just above the surface each afternoon. As daytime mixing
transpires, especially along slightly breezy flow over the
mountains, this drier air could loft down to the surface and
bring dew points lower than currently forecast. Minimum relative
humidity values bottom out into the 30s/40s on Thursday as it
currently stands, but further drops into the upper 20s to low
30s for Friday afternoon. However, the aforementioned
positioning of the surface high overhead by Friday will
diminish the breezier profile winds and decrease opportunities
for fire spread.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

The weekend will feature the conclusion of dominating upper
level ridging over the region as it navigates off the eastern
seaboard. This will be to make room for a trough and its
attendant surface low pressure system that will be progressing
across the country. The center of the surface low will pivot up
into Canada, while developing a tail of showers and
thunderstorms along a strengthening cold front throughout the
course of the weekend. In the midst of its evolution, the
Central Appalachians will see an unseasonably warm and dry day
on Saturday as surface flow veers out of the south ahead of the
disturbance`s arrival. Many spots across the Tri-State area will
see afternoon temperatures rise into the low 80s while mountain
zones will plateau within the 60s and 70s.

Forecast trends have gravitated towards a slower onset arrival
time of showers, now bringing the initial precipitation shield
into our far western zones by late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. Central guidance then carries a ribbon of higher
POPs throughout the day Sunday, denoting the likely timeframe
of the cold front`s passage. This weekend system has already
caught the attention of SPC and WPC, who have begun to highlight
various areas within the Tennessee and far western Ohio Valleys
regarding severe weather and flash flooding potential. Whether
that potential reaches as far east as our forecast area remains
questionable, especially given the late arrival timing of
activity on Saturday and the unfavorable conditions for
instability on Sunday as the front passes overhead.

The forecast then grows more uncertain as guidance spread shows
varying solutions for the start of next week. Some models hold
on to adverse weather far longer than others for Monday, while
there are some signs of restoration of dry weather for the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

A strong signal of river valley fog is present on nighttime
satellite imagery and local webcams this morning across the
Charleston metro area and southward into the coalfields.
Additionally, a small corridor of overcast skies was observed
blanketing the northeast WV mountains. Both features will impose
a forecasting challenge through the predawn hours as sub-VFR
conditions are strongly possible across the majority of our TAF
sites. Will attempt to handle these fluctuations with tempo
groups heading into daybreak this morning.

After sunrise, fog erosion is set to take place while cloud
coverage are progged to increase in the midst of a passing cold
front. At the time of writing, the front was draped through the
Ohio River Valley, with the expectation that the boundary will
cross over our airspace throughout the morning into the
afternoon. Surface flow will shift out of the north/northwest in
its wake, with clouds slow to scatter out through the late
afternoon hours. High pressure will quickly regain control late
tonight into Thursday, with quiet flight conditions progged for
the later half of the TAF period as a result.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of early morning river
valley fog may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 10/15/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning for the
rest of this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ032-039-
     040-521>523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05