South Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

920
FXUS61 KRLX 141728
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
128 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through 9 PM this
evening across portions of northern West Virginia and southeast
Ohio.

18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

No noteworthy changes to mention regarding the forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms and flooding will be possible today and
again on Thursday.

2) A period of dry weather is expected Monday through Wednesday with
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon
and this evening ahead of an advancing cold front. Isolated strong
cells may develop ahead of this evening`s main line of thunderstorms.
An unstable airmass will develop this afternoon and evening with
MLCAPE values of 500 to 1,500 J/kg. In addition, shear will be
strong at 35-45 kts, and this will provide support for organized
severe thunderstorm development. Shear will be strongest across
the northern half of the area with potential for a few rotating
supercells ahead of this evening`s main line of thunderstorms,
which is why the Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight
risk of severe weather today in this area. A very moist airmass
with PWAT values of 1.80 to 2.00 inches will lead to heavy
downpours, and multiple thunderstorms that move over the same
areas could create localized flooding issues.

There will be an additional severe thunderstorm and flooding threat
Thursday ahead of another cold front. Models suggest moderate to
strong instability (MLCAPE 700-1,600 J/kg) will develop ahead of the
front with robust 0-6 km bulk shear (35-45 kts). In addition, a very
moist airmass will be positioned ahead of the frontal boundary with
PWATs potentially anywhere from 2.00 to 2.25 inches. Although there
is still some question regarding the exact timing of the severe and
flooding threats, SPC has a 15% severe risk placed across the region
Thursday and WPC is forecasting a slight risk of excessive rainfall.
We will watch this threat closely over the next several days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A period of dry and comfortable weather will unfold Monday through
Wednesday with high pressure in place. Monday`s high temperatures
will be in the lower to middle 70s. Temperatures will rebound into
the lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. The air will begin to turn more
humid Wednesday in a prefrontal airmass with dew point temperatures
returning to the lower 60s. Thursday will definitely be more hot and
humid area-wide with high temperatures in the upper 80s and dew
points returning to the 70s. Behind Thursday`s cold frontal passage,
temperatures will drop back into the lower 80s Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are currently seen area-wide with light to
moderate winds out of the southwest. Thunderstorms will develop
late this afternoon and into the evening hours, with the prime
window for thunderstorms being between 21Z today and 03Z Monday.
Any thunderstorm that develops will bring variably gusty winds
and visibility reductions to MVFR or IFR for a brief time.

Winds will shift to become northwesterly after 00Z Monday as a
cold front passes through. Winds will then become mostly calm
during the early morning hours, but breezy conditions may
continue at KBKW.

Fog and low ceilings are expected to develop during the predawn
hours, after 08Z Monday. Fog and low ceilings should dissipate
by 14Z. IFR conditions are expected in fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorms may vary. Timing
of overnight restrictions in fog and low ceilings may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions in fog is possible Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26