South Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

991
FXUS61 KRLX 150049
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
749 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Held onto chances of pops across the lowlands a little longer than
previously forecast with anticipated fetch off of Great Lakes, and
model soundings indicating ample moisture in crystal growth zone.
Also, based on new snowfall forecast amounts, expanded the Winter
Weather Advisory across some of the mountains, and expanded the
Cold Weather Advisory in some locations, with a Special Weather
Statement being issued for the rest of the forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Rain changes over to snow area wide this evening, along
  with falling temperatures. Snow continues across the area for
  much of the day Thursday, along with the potential for snow
  squalls to develop, possibly affecting the Thursday morning
  commute. Mainly light accumulations expected across the
  lowlands, and light to moderate accumulations across the
  mountains. Gusty winds Thursday will lead to reduced
  visibilities at times in snow showers, and create very cold
  wind chills, particularly across the higher terrain where a
  Cold Weather Advisory has been issued.

- 2) Colder temperatures to finish the week and into early next
  week, along with several quick moving disturbances that will
  produce periods of snow showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

7:30 PM Update.

Secondary cold front is in the process of quickly sweeping
through the forecast area this evening, with wind gusts of
30-35+ mph possible as it crosses, along with light to moderate
rain showers. Temperatures will steadily fall following its
passage, with a transition to snow showers already having
occurred across portions of our SE OH zones. Lake enhanced
moisture then begins to work into the area in earnest, with
upslope snow showers for the overnight into Thursday. Thinking
on amounts has not changed from the discussion below, with the
most persistent / heaviest snow showers being across the
central/northern mountains, while a bit more of the scattered
variety elsewhere. Nevertheless, locally heavy snow showers and
even a few squalls are possible across much of the CWA overnight
into Thursday. This combined with steadily falling temperatures
leads to the potential for travel impacts area-wide, with a
Special Weather Statement having been issued earlier to
highlight this potential.

Prior Discussion Below.

Precipitation will change over to snow area wide this evening as an
upper trough sags south across the area, and lead to quite the drop
in temperatures, with temperatures by Thursday morning generally in
the teens to lower 20s area wide. Snow will quickly transition from
a rather heavy/wet texture, to a fluffier lighter snow as the colder
air filters into the region. Snow will continue during the day
Thursday, as a favorable moisture fetch sets up off Lake Michigan,
with snow squalls expected at times during the day on Thursday,
possibly affecting Thursday morning commutes, leading to reduced
visibility and snow covered roads. As is the case, often difficult
to pinpoint where individual squalls or bands of heavier snowfall
will set up, and no one model seems to have a better handle versus
the other this far out. As a general rule, light accumulations are
expected across the lower elevations, generally less than 1 to 2
inches, with a general 2 to 5 inches across the higher terrain,
although with the expected squalls, some lowland locations could
creep towards that 2 inch mark. The low/trough will move east of the
area as the day progresses on Thursday, with precipitation gradually
shunting off across the area. Did elect to go ahead and expand the
winter weather advisory some across the more mountainous counties
based on latest snowfall forecast.

In addition to the snow, gusty winds will take hold particularly
this evening across the area, with a tight pressure gradient taking
hold and CAA. Winds are generally anticipated to remain below wind
advisory criteria, however, with the colder air filtering in, wind
chills in the single digits to teens can be anticipated across the
lower elevations, with single digits to below zero anticipated
across the mountains. Based on new cold weather advisory criteria of
-5 for some areas, expanded upon the cold weather advisory from
 previous forecast. Higher elevations will continue longer in
 duration on this as opposed to expanded counties, due to
 continued winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Continued cold and unsettled this weekend and into early next week,
with multiple fast moving disturbances, each bringing reinforcing
shots of cold air, and light snow shower activity. Light
accumulations will be possible at times. In addition, gusty winds at
times during the period will continue to bring low wind chills to
the area at times, and additional cold advisory headlines may be
needed across the higher terrain late this week into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread rain showers are crossing west to east through the
area as a cold front sweeps through, with a transition to snow
showers quickly expected (area wide by approximately 3-4Z)
following its passage. The chance for snow showers will then
continue through the night into Thursday, persisting longest
in/near the mountains where snow showers will linger into the
afternoon. Snow showers will be locally heavy at times, with dry
conditions returning towards 00Z Friday. Widespread MVFR CIGs
are expected overnight, with the potential for brief IFR at
times, especially in/near the mountains (BKW/EKN). MVFR CIGs
then persist through much of the day on Thursday, gradually
lifting into VFR from southwest to northeast throughout the
afternoon/evening. BKW/CKB/EKN may remain MVFR through 00Z
Friday. MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible with rain showers
over the next few hours, with MVFR/IFR/LIFR expected at times in
snow showers later tonight into Thursday.

Southwest surface flow in advance of the front quickly veers to
WNW following its passage, then remains as such through the end
of the TAF period (00Z Friday). Gusts of 15-25 kts are
expected at times through the TAF period, with gusts of 25-35
kts possible across the higher terrain, as well as when the
front crosses through this evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/intensity of restrictions associated
with precipitation tonight into Thursday may vary from the
forecast. Heavy snow showers or snow squalls overnight into
Thursday could result in brief LIFR VSBY restrictions.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible at times this weekend with additional periods of
snow showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for WVZ039-040-
     520>523-525-526.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     WVZ518-520-522-525.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday
     for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SL/GW
AVIATION...GW