Parkersburg, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

110
FXUS61 KRLX 161032
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
632 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy, but becoming drier as high pressure builds today.
Potential areawide frost early Thursday morning. Next impactful
system brings rain and storms on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Skies are clearing and precipitation is making its way out of
the area this morning. No significant changes to the near term
forecast are needed at this time.

As of 250 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:
* Light precipitation tapers off this morning.
* Breezy, but drier as high pressure builds during the day.
* Widespread frost expected late tonight into early Thursday morning.

Precipitation is currently moving across the area while an
upper level trough slides overhead. Light snow has developed
over the higher elevations of the northeast mountains, though
rain remains the primary precipitation type for the lowlands.
Any precipitation accumulations should be light.

Showers will taper off from west to east early this morning,
then drier conditions take hold for the rest of today and
tonight as high pressure builds in behind the receding trough.

Breezy conditions are expected to redevelop in the lowlands, and
persist along the mountains much of the day. Although gusts are
not anticipated to be as strong as those of yesterday, a Wind
Advisory remains in effect for portions of the northeast
mountains where 45 to 50 mph gusts remain possible through the
morning. Winds then gradually ease later today into tonight.

For tonight, light flow and clear skies allow temperatures to
turn rather chilly, with widespread frost likely across the
lowlands, and frost/freeze conditions within the mountains. For
all counties where the growing season has been initiated, a
Frost Advisory will be in effect from late tonight through early
Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

High pressure at the surface and aloft fleets toward the east
during Thurday while a warm front lifts across the area from a
system to the west that will be developing and traversing
throughout the day toward the northeast. This feature will
provide a chance for a shower, mainly to our north, and central
guidance did not provide any PoPs, therefore the ensemble
forecast is likely against this solution, but the GFS and the
EURO suggest this could happen. Since the confidence is in only
two models elected to not add in any chances for rain at this
time.

We will start a warming trend on Thursday getting up to about
seasonable, but significantly higher than what we have had in
the past few days. This will transcend into Friday with
temperatures climbing to above seasonable with much of the
lowlands expected to get up to the 80 degree mark or slightly
above. Friday will also be windy, partly cloudy, dry and warmer
overnight with temperatures in the low 60s, so there is no
concern for frost for once.

Friday night is when we have a chance for rain coming in from
the northwest and sliding chances down southeast toward the
entire area. Then all eyes turn on Saturday where SPC has us in
a slight risk already for portions of our southwest CWA.
Another windy day and from what we have seen recently synoptic
winds will likely be higher than central guidance, therefore
increased them slightly to account for the tighter gradient and
to give the hint of stronger surface flow from an elongated
frontal boundary forecast to be draped from northeast to
southwest in front of a digging upper level trough with an
associated low to our northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

The aforementioned feature, the frontal boundary, will
provide enough lift and a low level jet to provide some strong
wind gusts throughout the day on Saturday. The front slowly
exits Sunday night to where if enough PWATs are associated with
this feature it might promote some localized flooding issues
since the timing of the frontal passage is very slow as the
parent low slowly moves due east just to our north. Again,
winds were rather on the low side from central guidance,
therefore increased them considering frontal passage will take
place on that day.

This will keep chance for thunderstorms across Saturday and
some for Sunday, but mainly diurnal storm activity. Chances
will then continue into Monday and Tuesday as wrap around flow
continues to affect the area for almost the rest of the long
term. Models hint at high pressure building back in sometime on
Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

Above seasonable temperatures will continue for the rest of
this long term period where Saturday will be the warmest with
potential for the mid 80s across the Tri-state and Charleston
Metro areas which will aid in the development of strong to
severe thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

MVFR ceilings along the mountains will improve as skies
continue to clear this morning. High pressure then brings drier
weather and VFR flight conditions for the rest of the TAF
period.

West to northwest winds remain breezy today, with strongest
gusts occurring along the mountains. Winds start to weaken this
evening, then become calm to light and variable tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 04/16/25
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Widespread IFR is not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>027-029.
     Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ523-526.
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JLB