Oak Hill, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

191
FXUS61 KRLX 120039
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
839 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and cold tonight, with showers across the mountains
early. Remaining chilly through Saturday, then gradually warming
up. Next cold front late Monday, then chilly midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 836 PM Friday...

Webcams across the area show dense fog with visibilities as low
as or less than a quarter of a mile. This is being observed
above about 2,500 feet in elevation. Went ahead and issued a
Dense Fog Advisory across the higher elevations of the mountains
in our forecast area until 10 AM Saturday.

As of 740 PM Friday...

Showers continue to dissipate across the mountains at this hour
as a front stalls to our east. Left some chance PoPs through
the night across the mountains as NW flow will continue
overnight, though it will be light. Snow showers are possible
across the highest elevations of the mountains with
accumulations less than an inch possible.

Outside of any rain or snow showers, there will be areas of
dense fog overnight, particularly in the mountains, but there
will likely be some across portions of the lowlands that are
close to the foothills of the mountains. There could be some
pockets of freezing fog across the higher elevations of
Pocahontas and Randolph counties as lows will drop into the
lower 30s and upper 20s across these zones.

As of 139 PM Friday...

An upper-level low continues to rotate across the region,
keeping a thick low stratus deck over all locations this
afternoon. Cloudy skies will persist into tonight, and scattered
showers will continue across southern and eastern portions of
the area. Clouds may break overnight across portions of
southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky, which can allow for
patchy frost to develop as winds reduce and temperatures drop.
Therefore, these locations will have a frost advisory in effect
overnight through 10 AM Saturday morning.

The upper-level trough axis will be centered over central
Virginia Saturday, keeping most of West Virginia and southeast
Virginia under cloudy skies. However, a mixture of clouds and
some sunshine will exist over southeast Ohio and portions of
northeast Kentucky. Eventually, clouds should break for a little
sunshine over West Virginia just before sunset as the upper
trough exits to the east. Saturday will be another chilly day
for the middle of April with highs only in the upper 40s in the
mountains to the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 PM Friday...

An upper level trough will continue to progress east of the area
overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, diminishing potential
for showers along the higher terrain by the second half of the
weekend. A quick push of dry weather will then arrive on Sunday
with transient high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft.
The encroachment of a warm front will also encourage warming
temperatures Sunday afternoon, with highs anticipated in the
50s/60s across the Central Appalachians.

Warming temperatures extend into the start of the work week as
the front lifts northward overhead and above the Mason Dixon
line. This places the forecast area in the warm sector of an
advancing disturbance on Monday afternoon. Diurnal heating,
coupled with strong jet winds aloft, could be capable of producing
strong to potentially severe weather into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 AM Friday...

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be ongoing from
Monday afternoon and into the evening. An upper level trough
swings through on Tuesday, maintaining the chance for rain
across areas east of the Ohio River. In addition, more
opportunities for diurnally driven convection will be plausible
along the higher terrain Tuesday afternoon and evening. On the
backside of the trough, a blast of colder temperatures will
yield a changeover to snow for our higher mountain zones
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

For the second half of the work week, high pressure under a much
colder airmass will be present ahead of renewed potential for
precipitation late Thursday through Friday. Clear and calm
overnight conditions may yield potential for frost/freeze
Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 713 PM Friday...

Widespread MVFR and IFR expected tonight with low stratus and
fog, especially across the mountains. Remnant showers are still
being observed across the mountains, but they are decreasing in
coverage and are projected to as a cold front shifts farther
east later tonight. Left in chances across the northeastern
mountains nonetheless overnight to cover any lingering upslope
showers that could still occur until about ~06z.

Due to lingering moisture there will be areas of dense fog
across the mountains and portions of the lowlands overnight. The
most likely terminals will be BKW, CKB and EKN. CRW may see some
MVFR/IFR impacts from some fog. BKW and EKN are already
reporting LIFR restrictions with fog formation. Some freezing
fog could be possible across the higher ridge zones of the
mountains.

Some clearing may occur across the western portion of our forecast
area. This includes HTS and PKB, but ceilings will likely only
be BKN or SCT at best across these terminals. Improvement to VFR
is expected by mid morning Saturday, but lingering restrictions
are still possible across the mountains with stubborn low
stratus.

Winds will be mostly light and NW`rly with some gusts between
12-17 knots overnight and through the day tomorrow.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions associated with fog
and/or low stratus may vary from forecast. Fog could be more
dense than advertised at CRW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 04/12/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and
evening, and in low stratus overnight Monday night into Tuesday
morning, the low stratus being mainly in and near the
mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ033-034-516-
     518-520-522-523-526.
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-
     075-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ101-102.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...LTC/JMC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...LTC