Huntington, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

407
FXUS61 KRLX 141541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1141 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of slow-moving afternoon showers and storms
today, best coverage east. Briefly dry Thursday, then more
showers/storms later Thursday into this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1140 AM Wednesday...

After collaborating with neighboring offices, have issued a
Flood Watch for flash flooding for our central/northern
mountain zones, along with the nearby foothills, where
confidence in slow-moving showers/storms this afternoon/evening
is highest, given severely compromised FFG in some locations
given recent rainfall. The Flood Watch runs until 10 PM.
Isolated instances of high water could also occur outside of the
Flood Watch this afternoon and evening given any slow-moving
showers/storms occurring in locations that were impacted by
heavy rain over the past couple of days.

A SCT-BKN diurnal Cu field has quickly developed over the last
hour or so across the region, with some SCT showers already across
the higher terrain from SW VA to NE WV given forcing assistance
from anabatic convergence. Showers/storms will be very slow-
moving once again today, with KRLX VAD currently sampling flow
of 5-15 kts through ~ 10kft.

As of 600 AM Wednesday...

Fog coverage remained fairly patchy this morning, no products
are necessary for the morning commute. Made some minor updates
to PoPs to better reflect current radar trends, but otherwise
forecast was on a track this morning.

As of 205 AM Wednesday...

Locally heavy rainfall from yesterday coupled with light winds and
at least some breaks in cloud cover has already allowed some patchy
fog to form and would expect this trend to continue into daybreak.
Not sure if coverage will rise to the level where we need a morning
fog SPS, but will continue to monitor trends over the next few hours.

The long awaited upper low has finally made its way into the Ohio
Valley only to open up into a wave and kick out of here by the end
of the near term forecast. The main concern through the day today
will be isolated to numerous convection. Forcing is quite a bit
weaker than yesterday, so not expecting nearly the level of
persistent coverage. The best coverage of showers and storms
will likely be in ascent out ahead of the now open wave across
our eastern counties. Some locations here saw between 2 and 3
inches of rainfall yesterday, albeit in a somewhat spotty
nature. If a heavier downpour were to get over these spots where
soils remain quite wet could see some renewed isolated high
water. While individual convective cores won`t be moving very
quickly given weak flow through column, they should propagate
with the better forcing which should help to limit dwell time
over any individual spot for for these areas. Generally think
the threat remains low enough to forgo a small flash flood
watch. Elsewhere, convective coverage is expected to remain
mainly isolated to scattered. As mentioned flow through the column
will be fairly weak, generally 10-15KT, so not expecting much
in the way of storm organization or risk for severe storms.

Convection should wane quickly with loss of heating this
evening, with some additional elevated showers or storms
possibly arriving across SW VA/SW WV by early Thursday morning
as mass convergence associated with the head of a H850 jet
starts nosing into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

Thursday starts dry and comfortable with lots of sunshine, allowing
afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 80s. With dewpoints around
the mid 60s, PWATs about 1.4 inches, SBCAPE could exceed 3200 J/Kg
under deep layered shear about 35 knots. These conditions are
brought be a clean upper-level ridge entering our area from the
west. With the lack of a kicker to initiate convection, believe
afternoon strong convection will be possible due to heating
processes. Therefore, isolated to scattered showers or storms can be
expected.

These ingredients will provide high bouyancy Thursday evening into
the early nighttime hours. Meanwhile, a cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms is forecast to develop across the Midwest Thursday
afternoon, and then move east into our area by Thursday evening or
during the early night hours. Guidance suggests an H500 shortwave,
at the back of the crossing ridge, arriving to SE OH by 2 AM Friday
(Thursday night). The highly buoyant atmosphere together with the
upper shortwave could sustain some of the approaching storms to
affect our area, while most of the activity diminish in intensity
and coverage.

It is still uncertain the intensity of thunderstorms at this point.
SPC keeps our entire area under a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms for Thursday through 8 AM Friday morning.

Friday afternoon seems to be more unstable than Thursday, with
higher SBCAPE, deep layered shear and PWATs. Confidence is
increasing on higher probabilities for strong to severe
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

Highs on Friday will reach the mid to upper 80s once again. A cold
front approaches late Friday night, with thunderstorms remain
possible through that time period. For Day 3 SPC has expanded a
15% risk area for severe storms into our counties in NE KY,
southern portions of the Middle OH valley, and extreme southwest
WV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

Guidance suggests the arrival of a cold front entering SE OH by
early Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will remains in
the forecast until the front exits east by Saturday evening. A
secondary cold front will bring much drier airmass to the area on
Sunday. High pressure builds from the west providing dry weather
conditions for the rest of the weekend into the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 600 AM Wednesday...

Patchy fog and remnant low level moisture will quickly lift into
a SCT-BKN stratocumulus deck this morning, perhaps briefly IFR
in spots, largely MVFR or better by 15Z.

Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to blossom
this afternoon with heating, these will be quite slow moving and if
they get over any individual terminal could yield 30-60 minutes of
impacts. Best convective coverage is expected to affect CKB/EKN
and BKW. This activity should wane quickly with loss of heating
this evening.

At least patchy fog develops again tonight, especially where any
heavier rain falls today. Increasing southwesterly flow toward
daybreak may help to improve conditions across the far south
prior ot daybreak.

Winds generally light and southerly, except gusty and erratic
near any thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms could produce IFR conditions
and gusty winds this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible under convection Thursday night
through Friday night, and then again Saturday afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ027-028-
     030>032-039-040-517>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP/GW
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JP