Fairmont, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

261
FXUS61 KPBZ 120105
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
905 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool temperatures and scattered showers will persist through
Saturday, mainly east of Pittsburgh, under upper level low
pressure. Surface high pressure then returns for Sunday as dry
weather is expected. By Monday, expect the chance for severe
weather followed by a cold snap on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers, mainly east of Pittsburgh
- Seasonable low temperatures, and Saturday high temperatures
  about 10 to 15 degrees below normal
-------------------------------------------------------------------

A relatively baggy upper trough continues to trudge across the
Upper Ohio Valley. This general pattern will persist into
Saturday, as fairly weak surface low pressure rides northward
along the Atlantic Seaboard to just off of the Mid-Atlantic
coast tomorrow.

Abundant cloud cover will linger through Saturday over most of
the CWA, as moisture remains trapped underneath an inversion.
However, the Zanesville area could see some cloud breaks on the
overall periphery of the surface low`s moisture plume. While
the bulk of precipitation will remain to the south and east of
our region, lingering moisture and low-level convergence along
the ridges may continue to support a few scattered showers to
the east of Pittsburgh. Boundary-layer temperatures in the
higher elevations should cool enough tonight to support a bit of
snow and/or sleet where showers do occur late tonight into
Saturday morning. There is a bit of question as to moisture
depth, as cloud tops may be warmer than -10C, so precipitation
may be realized as drizzle (perhaps freezing drizzle in eastern
Tucker County) instead of showers in some cases. Any snow
accumulation potential appears to be close to nil given the warm
ground and weak precipitation rates, with eastern Tucker
standing the best chance of noting less than an inch (about
30-60% of measurable snow according to the NBM). Patchy fog is
also possible given the low-level moisture, especially where
wind can go nearly calm.

The cloud cover will keep temperatures from falling off too
rapidly tonight, and overnight lows will end up near or a touch
above climatology, but Saturday`s highs will end up some 10 to
15 degrees below normal under the clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions Saturday night and continuing through Sunday
- Slight chance of precip Sunday night
- Potential of severe weather on Monday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

There is the potential of a few stray showers Saturday evening along
the Laurels. This is expected to dissipate by Sunday morning as high
pressure is expected to move into the region late tomorrow night.
Temperatures are expected to return to normal values by Sunday as
highs return to highs near 60 degrees. Dry conditions are expected
during the day.

By Sunday night, another low pressure system will lift northeast
into the Great Lakes with the warm front lifting north of the
forecast area Sunday night. This will bring a slight chance of
showers to the area with a 10% to 15% chance of a 0.05 inches of
rainfall or greater. Once the showers pass, the region will be in
the warm sector by Monday morning.

Monday will bring the potential of severe weather as a stout cold
front swings through the forecast area Monday late
afternoon/evening. The ensemble forecast indicates that the surface
based CAPE heading into this event is around 500 J/Kg or less,
however, the proximity of the front and the low center will make
this event one to watch. If there is any clearing in the warm
sector, there will be a huge difference in the available
instability, especially since temperatures will already be in the
low 70s (roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal). The ensembles
suggest the CWASP will register around 50 to 60 for Monday
also hinting at the potential for severe weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A few snow showers possible Tuesday night
- Dry conditions Wednesday through Thursday afternoon
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday night, the cold front will pass through the area leading to
another cold snap. This will make for a few instances of post
frontal showers and even a few snow showers for Tuesday night. There
is not expected to be any significant accumulation as ground
temperatures will still be quite warm after highs on Monday. High
pressure will then infiltrate the region keep dry conditions in
place for Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for rain will come
Thursday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly MVFR ceilings are ongoing this evening save DUJ where a
mix of IFR/LIFR continues. Further deterioration through the
overnight hours is expected with another night of a stagnant
airmass and moisture trapped beneath an inversion. The result
will be widespread IFR and increased probability of LIFR at DUJ,
LBE, MGW. Last night, wind remained elevated and most sites saw
moisture manifest as low stratus. Tonight, wind is expected to
be lighter, but not calm. The result should be to see more low
stratus but also some more visibility restrictions than the
night prior, but aside from DUJ, LBE, and MGW where wind is
forecast to be the lightest, visibility is favored to remain
low-end MVFR. The exception to all of this will be ZZV where
MVFR is more probable given displaced location on the periphery
of the stratus shield; in fact, a period of VFR overnight after
02z is continuing to grow in confidence, so have erred a bit
more optimistic there.

Improvement is once again expected Saturday morning but only to
MVFR for most. We won`t get a good push of drier low-level air
to erode this moisture until Saturday night when surface low
pressure off the New Jersey coast exits east and a building
mid-level ridge introduces drier air.

Outlook...
VFR returns Sunday under high pressure. Another round of
restrictions is possible on Monday associated with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lupo
NEAR TERM...CL/Lupo
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/Lupo
LONG TERM...Shallenberger/Lupo
AVIATION...Cermak/MLB