Cross Lanes, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

181
FXUS61 KRLX 251057
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
557 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild pattern through the weekend with occasional showers.
An arctic front whips through Monday morning, bringing a return
of much colder weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 555 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms rumbling across northern and central
portions of the area early this morning were moving off to the
east, along and ahead of a warm front. This early morning
elevated warm advection convection was a setup more typical of
Spring than Christmas morning. Showers continue to regenerate
behind the initial convective round, and also across across
southern portions of the area. Activity should shift southward
later this morning and this afternoon, as the front returns
southeast, as a cold front, once a low pressure wave over north
central Ohio early this morning goes by.

Charleston did not officially report thunder at the airport, but
did report distant lightning. PKB did report a thunderstorm,
which was intense enough to issue special weather statements
earlier for hail.

As of 130 AM Thursday...

A warm front will bring rain early this morning, with a pre-dawn
nocturnal rumble of thunder given narrow CAPE above a surface-
based inversion. Lightning was noted in areas of rain in western
and central Ohio early this morning, while spotty light rain
was developing in western and central portions of the forecast
area and moving east.

Carrying over from the Tuesday afternoon discussion, the last
occurrence of thunder on Christmas Day in Charleston was ten
years ago, in 2015.

The front then returns south, as a cold front this afternoon,
as a flat wave goes by. This will bring an end to the rain, and
even partial clearing across the north tonight.

The front will stall just south, or even across far southern
portions, of the area tonight, before buckling back
northeastward across the Tug Fork, as a warm front early Friday
morning. As such, there may only be a short break in the spotty
light rain or drizzle there tonight.

Temperatures were holding nearly steady beneath the surface
based inversion early this morning, but will eventually climb
this Christmas morning while maintaining a north to south
gradient, lowest north, but an unseasonably mild Christmas Day
southern and central portions of the area, where temperatures
peak as high as the lower 60s early this afternoon. Temperatures
will start receding as the front turns around this afternoon,
and then continue to fall tonight, ending up approximately
where there are this morning come dawn Friday, from the mid 30s
north to around 50 south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

A front returning from the southwest as a warm front first thing
Saturday morning continue moving northeast into the area during
the day Friday, before being intercepted by a cold front Friday
night, as a low pressure center tracks north of the area. This
brings rain Friday that tapers off Friday night into early
Saturday morning.

Colder air associated with a large polar-arctic high that
passes well north of the area tonight, makes better inroads
southward, east of the mountains, than that which filtered in
ahead of the system incoming early this morning, as the high
ridges southward there, setting up the classic cold air damming
wedge. As such, freezing rain is possible along the eastern
edges of our northern mountains Friday.

Central guidance probabilities of at least a hundredth of an
inch of ice accretion have retreated off the northeast edges of
the forcast area while high resolution rapid refresh ensemble
probabilities have snuck down the eastern edges. Short range
ensemble probabilities of surface temperatures below freezing
with temperatures aloft above support freezing rain along the
eastern edges of our northern mountains when precipitation
arrives there Friday. This guidance is consistent with the WPC
ice accretion forecast Friday, which shows a few hundredths
there. The official forecast reflects this as well, along with
spotty accretion along the higher ridge farther west, down
through Snowshoe.

With this uncertainty in southwestward extent of any ice
accretion threat, later timing, into the afternoon with diurnal
insolation, and in collaboration with neighbors to the north
and east, have held off on any Winter Weather Advisories. Will
still need to keep a close eye on this situation. Any threat
there ends Friday night, as precipitation tapers off, and the
cold front scours out more low level cold air there than it
returns.

The rest of Saturday brings ridging surface and then aloft that
will end any light rain or drizzle lingering in and just west of
the mountains in the morning. However, any break up of the low
clouds Saturday as the inversion becomes increasingly shallow
will reveal lowering and thickening clouds Saturday afternoon
and night, out ahead of the next system.

The above normal temperature regime continues, the mildest day
being Friday, when temperatures top out in the low to mid 60s
across the central and southern lowlands. The north to south
temperature gradient also continues amid the wavering front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

The long term brings a major pattern change next week, as two
shots of arctic air arrive.

Models have slowed on the timing of a mid/upper level short
wave trough that digs east-southeastward through the northern
plains Sunday, and midwest Sunday night, and then closes off
into a stout mid/upper-level low while moving into the Saint
Lawrence River Valley area Monday. In response, surface low
pressure comes together over the Great Lakes on Sunday, and then
intensifies over the northeastern states and/or Saint Lawrence
River Valley area Monday.

Rain associated with warm advection ahead of the system is
likely Sunday, and then rain or rain showers ahead of and along
the the cold front effect the area Sunday night into Monday. The
cold front itself is now forecast to whip across the area Monday
morning, with cooling behind the front taking place mostly
during the day on Monday. With mid/upper-level support, this
could change the rain to snow before ending over the lowlands
Monday with at least upslope snow in and just west of the
mountains into Monday night, if not longer.

This front also has the potential to create strong wind gusts
as it moves through, so this situation will need to be
monitored. It appears the cold advection will be strong and
quick enough for the possibility of a flash freeze of moisture
on surfaces Monday afternoon, or at the latest, upon onset of
darkness Monday evening. Winter impacts on the commute are most
likely Monday afternoon/evening, with the greatest potential
being in the mountains, where it gets coldest and snows the
most. Models generally concur on h85 temperatures plummeting
into the negative 10 to 15 degree C range, modest for a late
December arctic outbreak.

After a dry, cold finish to 2025, models have not come into much
better agreement on the second shot of arctic air next week, no
longer slated arrive in time to ring in 2026, but arrive later
Thursday or even Thursday might. Central guidance only shows a
slight chance of snow in the northern mountains to ring in the
New year. The magnitude of this second outbreak is also in some
doubt, with only the Canadian showing sub -20C air at h85, the
GFS again showing h85 air in the negative 10 to 15 degree C
range, and the European not even showing sub- freezing air at
h85 arriving at all.

Much above normal temperatures through Sunday night abruptly
drop significantly below normal early next week, but do recover
somewhat to end the year.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 555 AM Thursday...

A warm front bringing rain showers early this morning can still
bring MVFR visibility at times throughout the morning. Northern
sites PKB, CKB and EKN improve to VFR visibility by early this
afternoon while drizzle lingers across southern sites HTS, CRW
and BKW before ending by this evening.

MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR this morning, before improving
from north to south this afternoon as the front returns south as
a cold front. The clouds may break up for a time across the
north tonight while across the south, ceilings may not get much
if any above IFR.

Light southwest surface flow this morning will become light
north to northwest behind the cold front later this morning
into this afternoon, a bit gusty at times across the ridges, and
then light and variable to calm tonight, eventually light
southeast by dawn Friday. Moderate west to northwest flow aloft
today will become light north to northwest tonight, and then
light to moderate southwest by dawn Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing lowering ceilings conditions this
Christmas morning and improvement this afternoon and tonight may
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 12/25/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...IFR possible in low ceilings and rain
Friday morning, and in rain to snow on Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM