Clarksburg, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

538
FXUS61 KRLX 191729
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
129 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical airmass remains over the region with several short
wave troughs passing through. Locally heavy showers and storms
over increasingly compromised soils may lead to flash flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Saturday...

A frontal boundary is draped across the northern portions of
our CWA. This feature will advect north providing more shower
and thunderstorm activity to our northern periphery and south of
there during this period. With high instability and weak to
modest shear expect some isolated strong to severe storm
potential. The main threat would be damaging wind due to wet
microbursts as there is plenty of DCAPE. Steering flow is around
25kts, therefore storms should be moving along fairly decent
although with saturated sounding profiles and high PWATs, heavy
downpours are possible and will cause isolated flooding issues
under areas that are flood prone or hit repeatedly, especially
is storms slow down in areas with less shear and upper level
flow. With plenty of cloud coverage temperatures will stay
around seasonable and instability will likely come down a bit
from model soundings due to shower and cloud coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Saturday...

In this period another frontal boundary, a cold front, to
our far north will slide southward and enter our area by Sunday
evening. This will cause ample lift in our saturated column to
create better chances for shower and storm activity during the
daytime and also nocturnal. A marginal threat by SPC may have
to be increased due to high instability and increased modest
shear for Sunday. Steering flow will be much higher and
therefore force storms to move along fairly quickly, however
heavy downpours will be the main threat along with damaging
wind, but that steering flow will help aid in preventing some
local flooding issues. If areas get repeatedly hit or training
occurs then localized flash flooding will be possible. PWATs
are up near 2 inches still and the column will be fairly
saturated with plenty of DCAPE. Lapse rates will also be on the
higher side above the environmental rate.

By Monday afternoon, the front should exit to our south and
promote lingering showers and possible storms into the evening,
maybe even at night depending on how fast the front exits. With
all the activity temperatures will remain seasonable under
cloudy conditions and frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Saturday...

After the aforementioned front exits models have high
pressure building in at the surface and aloft for a nice break
from unsettled weather for the entire rest of the work week.
Dewpoints stay the same throughout this period, however
temperatures will at first sink below seasonable into midweek
and then take a turn upwards into the low 90s going into the
weekend. Apparent temperatures will reach the advisory
criteria of 100 degrees for Thursday and Friday for much of the
lowlands so we will have to keep an eye out for that. This all
means that only some dry air is coming, however we will have
higher temperatures along with sunny skies and a higher
probability of settled weather. We still cannot rule out a few
isolated diurnal showers or storms since we will be very moist
still although the weather will be a lot better than what we
have been experiencing.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

A frontal boundary to our north will provide scattered shower
and storm potential this afternoon and evening. Storms will be
moving west to east with a steering flow of 25kts. Most sites
should be affected by a storm or two from now through the
overnight hours. For the morning, activity should diminish to
maybe just a rogue shower and by mid morning CIGs drop to around
MVFR at most sites and IFR stratus at EKN/BKW. Dry conditions
will take place from then into the early afternoon when more
activity will start up again as a cold front slides south toward
the area. Winds should stay southwest and then shift to more
westerly by tomorrow afternoon. Visibility overnight should not
be too restricted as cloud coverage will be apparent. Did
however code up some restrictions to VIS at CRW/EKN, but only
MVFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY...


ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving conditions due to
lifting fog or low status may vary from forecast. Timing,
locations and intensity of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon could vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible under showers and storms Sunday.
IFR/LIFR conditions under dense fog possible Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ