Cheat Lake, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

267
FXUS61 KPBZ 121826
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
226 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crossing the Great Lakes tonight will push across
the Upper Ohio River Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase late tonight over Ohio
and then spread across the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
As the front pushes south of area Thursday a few showers are
possible mainly south of Pittsburgh. High pressure will build in
Friday bringing quiet and less humid weather.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Thunderstorms should increase in coverage late tonight over
  Ohio portion of area.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Increasingly moist southwest flow tonight will transport rather
high precipitable water values of 1.75-2.00" into Ohio area
after midnight. This higher moisture content can be seen in low
level water vapor channel with strong dry pocket over western PA
and surge of moisture crossing into western half of Ohio.

RAP shows increasing instability with this feature and along
with modest moisture transport and warm advection in 850-700 mb
layer expect an increasing in shower and thunderstorm activity
despite loss of diurnal heating. Upper trough does cross area
late tonight with 20-30 meter height falls so forcing will be
maximized by the end of the night.

Given the forcing there is a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall per WPC and a couple Ohio Counties could pick up 1-2".

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower and thunderstorms spread across the eastern part of the
  forecast area through Wednesday, and linger Thursday in the
  south
- Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across area
- Dry weather returns Thursday night
----------------------------------------------------------------

Evolution of thunderstorms Wednesday will be complicated by
ongoing convection with short wave trough early in the morning.
That activity will likely move east and/or dissipate by midday
and partial clearing and diurnal destabilization will likely
result in renewed storms by early/mid afternoon.

With Precipitable Water Values of 1.75-2.00", localized heavy
rainfall is expected with a few locations picking up a quick
1-2". Dry antecedent conditions and relatively low point
probabilities preclude issuance of flash flood watch.

NBM 72 hour PQPF indicates lower end amounts (10th to 25th
percentile) of about 0.25", and higher end amounts (75th
percentile) of 1.00". Maximum QPF is near 2", and amounts near
or above that value would likely occur in just a couple of
locations.

Heights build over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday,
but lingering moisture over the south could result in another
round of diurnal showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather to continue much of the period
- Hot weather returns Sunday
- Thunderstorms can`t be ruled out Sunday and Monday with warm
  and humid northwest flow pattern.
- Uncertainty increases by Tuesday in evolution of next trough
  digging into Great Lakes area.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensemble Guidance is confident in a strong upper High building
over the Middle Mississippi Valley Friday and Saturday and
remaining in place through Monday. WNW flow aloft with high
heights will be mainly dry but vulnerable to convective
complexes riding the edge of the capping ridge and into Great
Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley. Rather low confidence on this for
now but something to keep an eye out for.

Hot and humid weather returns by Sunday and Heat Index values
well into the 90s expected.

Confidence drops by Tuesday on precipitation chances as the key
question will be the interaction of mid latitude digging trough
with recurving Hurricane Erin. Ensemble uncertainty in this
evolution is high, ranging from little impact from this trough
over Upper Ohio Valley to a potential significant rain event.
While ensembles have been mostly confident that Erin recurves
well out to sea, the amplitude of the digging trough could be
significant enough to generate much needed rainfall for a
recently dry Upper Ohio River Valley area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As expected a SCT VFR deck has setup across the region near
5kft. Spotty afternoon and evening showers remain possible
across the region, especially near the terrain. Dry air in a
warm layer near 750mb will limit widespread convection and has
lowered probabilities of storms across the region leading to the
removal of PROB30s for our eastern ports.

High res modeling and ensemble probabilities highlight the
possibility of lingering convection moving into the region late
tonight from the west. PROB30s have been included at many ports due
to this possibility. Restrictions are not expected to be widespread
in this activity.

After this morning activity another round of storms seems likely
along a sagging weak cold front as it crosses the region tomorrow
afternoon. MVFR restrictions for CIGs seem likely as moisture rises
ahead of the front but the degree of drops may be slower and weaker
than models indicate with a relatively dry start and top down
moistening. Storms can bring gusty winds and heavy downpours.

Outlook... A downward trend in rain potential is favored to end the
week as high pressure develops near New England.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Craven
NEAR TERM...Craven
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Craven
AVIATION...AK