Beckley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

679
FXUS61 KRLX 141828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
228 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of slow-moving afternoon showers and storms
today, best coverage east. Briefly dry Thursday, then more
showers/storms later Thursday into this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1140 AM Wednesday...

After collaborating with neighboring offices, have issued a
Flood Watch for flash flooding for our central/northern
mountain zones, along with the nearby foothills, where
confidence in slow-moving showers/storms this afternoon/evening
is highest, given severely compromised FFG in some locations
given recent rainfall. The Flood Watch runs until 10 PM.
Isolated instances of high water could also occur outside of the
Flood Watch this afternoon and evening given any slow-moving
showers/storms occurring in locations that were impacted by
heavy rain over the past couple of days.

A SCT-BKN diurnal Cu field has quickly developed over the last
hour or so across the region, with some SCT showers already across
the higher terrain from SW VA to NE WV given forcing assistance
from anabatic convergence. Showers/storms will be very slow-
moving once again today, with KRLX VAD currently sampling flow
of 5-15 kts through ~ 10kft.

As of 600 AM Wednesday...

Fog coverage remained fairly patchy this morning, no products
are necessary for the morning commute. Made some minor updates
to PoPs to better reflect current radar trends, but otherwise
forecast was on a track this morning.

As of 205 AM Wednesday...

Locally heavy rainfall from yesterday coupled with light winds and
at least some breaks in cloud cover has already allowed some patchy
fog to form and would expect this trend to continue into daybreak.
Not sure if coverage will rise to the level where we need a morning
fog SPS, but will continue to monitor trends over the next few hours.

The long awaited upper low has finally made its way into the Ohio
Valley only to open up into a wave and kick out of here by the end
of the near term forecast. The main concern through the day today
will be isolated to numerous convection. Forcing is quite a bit
weaker than yesterday, so not expecting nearly the level of
persistent coverage. The best coverage of showers and storms
will likely be in ascent out ahead of the now open wave across
our eastern counties. Some locations here saw between 2 and 3
inches of rainfall yesterday, albeit in a somewhat spotty
nature. If a heavier downpour were to get over these spots where
soils remain quite wet could see some renewed isolated high
water. While individual convective cores won`t be moving very
quickly given weak flow through column, they should propagate
with the better forcing which should help to limit dwell time
over any individual spot for for these areas. Generally think
the threat remains low enough to forgo a small flash flood
watch. Elsewhere, convective coverage is expected to remain
mainly isolated to scattered. As mentioned flow through the column
will be fairly weak, generally 10-15KT, so not expecting much
in the way of storm organization or risk for severe storms.

Convection should wane quickly with loss of heating this
evening, with some additional elevated showers or storms
possibly arriving across SW VA/SW WV by early Thursday morning
as mass convergence associated with the head of a H850 jet
starts nosing into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Mid to upper level ridging slides into the Delmarva area on
Friday, placing the forecast area back into sufficient onshore
flow to encourage increasing moisture and rising temperatures.
Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s will be common across
the lowlands, with a few locations topping over the 90 degree
mark.

A stacked low pressure system churning over the Upper Midwest
will drive a cold front through the Ohio Valley and Central
Appalachians for the end of the work week. A strong signal for
heavy rainfall and severe weather with this passing system has
already garnered attention from the Weather Prediction Center
and the Storm Prediction Center, who have painted a Slight Risk
for both excessive rainfall and severe on Friday. CAMs hint at
long lived complex systems originating in the midwest dashing
into our area during peak heating hours. How this evolve will
set the tone for scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the first in a series of cold fronts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

A quick succession of cold fronts will bring the active weather
pattern we`ve found ourselves in this week to a close. Precipitation
diminishes in coverage from west to east by the second half of
the day Saturday as the disturbance orchestrating the frontal
passages ventures into New England.

Ridging aloft scooting into the heart of the country for the
start of next week will advertise dry and cooler weather.
Temperatures range in the 60s and 70s during the day and cooling
off into the 40s and 50s during the overnight periods.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 600 AM Wednesday...

Patchy fog and remnant low level moisture will quickly lift into
a SCT-BKN stratocumulus deck this morning, perhaps briefly IFR
in spots, largely MVFR or better by 15Z.

Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to blossom
this afternoon with heating, these will be quite slow moving and if
they get over any individual terminal could yield 30-60 minutes of
impacts. Best convective coverage is expected to affect CKB/EKN
and BKW. This activity should wane quickly with loss of heating
this evening.

At least patchy fog develops again tonight, especially where any
heavier rain falls today. Increasing southwesterly flow toward
daybreak may help to improve conditions across the far south
prior ot daybreak.

Winds generally light and southerly, except gusty and erratic
near any thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms could produce IFR conditions
and gusty winds this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible under convection Thursday night
through Friday night, and then again Saturday afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ027-028-
     030>032-039-040-517>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JP