Richland, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

201
FXUS66 KPDT 060952
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
252 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...High pressure ridging will
give way to light SW flow aloft today heading into Monday, making
for benign weather with unusually warm temps looking to persist
throughout the period and beyond. This will unfortunately work to
prolong what has already been a historic fire weather season for our
forecast area, with no season-ending event really in site, but
fortunately critical conditions are not anticipated this week, as
the overall synoptic pattern is not conducive for any kind of
particularly windy day soon. The SW flow, in fact, should work to
slowly increase RHs over the coming week.

A weak upper-level wave embedded within the flow aloft may produce
some locally breezy conditions across central Oregon this afternoon,
however sustained winds are well below critical thresholds, so these
winds should really only have minor impacts for ongoing incidents in
the area. By late Monday into Tuesday, the SW flow becomes more
pronounced, allowing for a chance of orographic showers across the
Cascades. These shower chances will be persistent through the
remainder of the work week, however QPF is anticipated to be on the
lighter end until a more organized wave is expected to move through
the PacNW sometime around the start of next weekend. Evans/74

.LONG TERM...Southwesterly flow will prevail on Wednesday, with a front
bringing some moisture, mainly to the Cascades. Much of Thursday
looks to be dry, before a trough approaches the west coast Friday
and moves across the region into Saturday. There is considerable
uncertainty with respect to the depth of this trough, with the
ECMWF deterministic being deeper than the GFS. Some showers can be
expected across the area, though QPF remains light, and
ultimately where and how much will depend on the strength and
position of the trough as it moves across the region.

The ensemble clusters do not favor the stronger ECMWF solution
through Saturday, with 37% of the clusters supporting the GFS
solution.  Of course, natural variability in any model solution
comes in to play at day 6.

Winds look to be relatively light across the area through the
period, except for Wednesday, when diurnal gusts are possible
upwards of 20 to 25 mph in the normally favored locations.  NBM
probabilities of wind gusts >= 25 mph on Wednesday are generally 60
to 80% across the Columbia Basin, SImcoe Highlands, Yakima Valley
and close to 90% in the Kittitas Valley.  However, probabilities of
wind gusts >= 39 mph are generally less then 30 percent in most
locations though the Kittitas Valley approaches 40-50%.

High temperatures will average 7 to 10 degrees above normal on
Wednesday, mainly in the low to mid 70s...then close to normal for
the remainder of the week, behind the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. Winds will generally be 10 kts or less. However, both BDN
and RDM could have some afternoon/early evening wind gusts in the
15 to 20 kt range, before decreasing to 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  73  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  74  48  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  75  46  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  73  43  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  75  45  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  73  40  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  81  42  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  78  44  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  82  46  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  79  46  83  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77