Bellingham, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

691
FXUS66 KSEW 231720
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
920 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper-low continues to churn off the Pacific coast
through the start of the new week with active weather persisting.
Conditions will settle by midweek and into the Thanksgiving holiday
as guidance hints at the return drier weather but cooler
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Current satellite imagery shows
a few breaks in the clouds over some portions of W WA this morning,
however most locations will likely be off to a rather gray start
with plenty of cloud cover. Radar shows some showers, mainly over
the western half of the CWA but attempting to move
northeastward...meeting with little luck though as any echoes tend
to fizzle out once they reach the Sound.

Deterministic and ensemble models remain fairly consistent, keeping
the upper level low wobbling out over the Pacific waters, churning
as it does so. This will bring waves of precip to the area...but
nothing particularly organized per se...instead defaulting to
activity more shower-like than anything else. With the main
highlight of the past week being wind, models continue to suggest
that some increased winds will still be possible today for locations
adjacent to the Strait, the north Sound and the Northern Interior
waters /including western Whatcom and Skagit counties/. While speeds
will be nowhere near the order of magnitude as yesterday or the
windstorm of last Tuesday/Wednesday, speeds up to 20 mph with
occasional gusts up to 30 mph will still be possible in these areas.
Speeds will gradually ease as the day progresses and no further wind
issues expected for the short term.

Some upper level ridging looks to build into the area for Sunday,
however given the proximity of the aforementioned upper low, this
ridge will not be enough to bring any significant drying to the
area, keeping showers in the forecast. The low finally starts to
push inland Monday however a consensus is emerging that the storm
track may end up being to the south of WA. This would allow for some
drying in the northern third of the CWA Monday with gradually
diminishing PoPs for the remainder of the area throughout the day.
Inherited forecast is already trending in this direction, so no need
for any morning tweaks there.

Daytime highs remain generally in the same ballpark throughout the
short term, ranging in the upper 40s to lower 50s...however it is
worth noting that today will be the warmest of the three days, with
temps falling 2-3 degrees on average...with Sunday and Monday
reflecting this dip.

18

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...From Previous Discussion...The
upper-low will be well inland on Tuesday as it centers over Oregon.
In wake of it, northwesterly flow aloft will filter cooler air in
the area as an upper-ridge centers over the NE PAC. Conditions are
to trend drier well into the week but NBM is keen on keeping slight
PoPs in the forecast. Conditions are to also trend cooler as
widespread 30s show up in the overnight lows, possibly near freezing
towards the second half of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...Upper level low off Vancouver Island moving southwest
through Sunday. Southwesterly flow aloft over Western Washington.
Air mass moist and somewhat unstable. Showers embedded in
southwesterly flow aloft moving through the area into Sunday.

VFR conditions through Sunday morning with ceilings lowering to MVFR
in heavier showers.

KSEA...VFR conditions through Sunday morning with ceilings lowering
to MVFR in heavier showers. Next area of showers moving through the
terminal 20z-22z. Southerly wind 4 to 8 knots becoming east
southeast after 09z. Felton

&&

.MARINE...A 990 millibar surface low west of Vancouver
Island will continue to gradually weaken today as it drifts slowly
toward the northwest. However, winds for the most part will still
remain within Small Craft Advisory speeds for most zones. The low
will fill and drift in the Oregon coastal waters early next week as
surface ridging builds over the interior of British Columbia. Winds
over western Washington remain offshore throughout the period. 33


&&

.HYDROLOGY...From Previous Discussion...The Skokomish river will
remain in minor flood stage today. But, it will be within a half
foot of flooding on Monday as it slowly recedes through the weekend.

For the remainder of the rivers no flooding is expected at this
time. Lower snow levels into the weekend in the Cascades will
limit runoff and reduce any flooding chances for rivers flowing
off the Cascades. Precipitation for the remainder of the period
will come in bursts. This combined with snow levels remaining
relatively low will keep rivers in their banks. 14/27



&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Grays
     Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
     Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Northern Inland
     Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

&&

$$