Virginia Beach, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

947
FXUS61 KAKQ 231101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
701 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and cool conditions prevail today and Saturday with
weak high pressure over the region. Unsettled weather moves back
in later Sunday into early Monday, before sliding south of the
area. Another round of unsettled weather is expected into the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry and cool today as high pressure slowly builds in
  from the west.

Early morning wx analysis indicates the cold front that brought
locally severe storms last evening (mainly from hail), has
pushed off the coast. Some patchy ground fog remains across
portions of SE VA, but is not widespread and will have minimal
if any impact early this morning. Temperatures are currently
ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s, and will probably drop
off another few degrees through sunrise such that the typical
cooler spots, such as Louisa and surrounding locations could dip
into the upper 40s. The sky is variably cloudy, and will average
out partly to mostly sunny today across the south, and partly to
mostly cloudy NE. A stray late aftn shower is possible across
the Maryland eastern shore. Highs today will be cooler than
average, ranging from around 70F across the north, with mid 70s
across the south. Breezy W-NW winds will prevail this aftn with
good mixing due to the rather cool air aloft and dry low levels.

Becoming mostly clear tonight, with diminishing winds. Rather
cool for late May, with most areas away from the coast dropping
off to the mid 40s to around 50F. At the coast, lows will range
through the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool weather will continue through early Sunday, with
  increasing clouds and perhaps a few showers late Sunday.

The core of the upper low will shift farther off to the NE
Saturday, as weak sfc high pressure settles in from the west.
Expect a mostly sunny and pleasant start to the holiday weekend
with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 70s south/lower 70s
north. Overnight lows will once again drop into the upper 40s
inland, with 50s closer to the coast Sat night. A broad W-NW
will flow aloft is expected Sunday, as another shortwave drops
SE from Ontario into the northern mid-Atlantic region heading
into Sunday night. At the surface, high pressure slides off the
coast, with low pressure moving east from the southern plains
into the deep south. Overrunning moisture, mainly in the form of
increasing clouds, is expected later Sunday. A few light showers
are possible by late aftn (mainly south), but PoPs are still
fairly minimal through sunset. Highs will be in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming unsettled later Sunday into next week as multiple systems
approach the region.

Models continue to show the northern stream suppressing the
moisture to the south rather quickly Sunday night, with drier
air pushing in from the N on Memorial Day. Still looking at high
chc PoPs (~50%), across southern VA and NE NC Sunday night into
early Monday, with only ~20% chances across the north. No severe
wx is expected, though a few rumbles of thunder will be
possible Sunday night over the far south. Not as cool with lows
ranging through the 50s. While the early part of Monday may
feature cloudy skies and scattered rain showers (especially
south), the latest trends are for drier air to move in from the
north by later morning/aftn. It does appear that after a brief
dry period Monday aftn/night, a more prolonged unsettled
stretch is likely for the rest of the work week as several
weather systems pass through the area bringing rain chances.
Temperatures will continue to run below average for late May,
with highs potentially only in the 60s for much of the area
Tuesday, then trending to near normal by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

Dry and VFR conditions prevail for the remainder of today with
a WNW wind of 10-15kt, with aftn gusts to 20-25 kt. An isolated
-SHRA could affect SBY late this aftn/early evening, but too
low of a probability to include in the TAF. Otherwise dry/VFR
overnight into early Sat.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions continue Saturday. A better
chance of showers and degraded flight conditions return later
Sunday into early Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

- Small Craft Advisories have ended across the northern coastal
  waters. Additional Small Craft Advisories have been issued
  for the Bay/lower James late this aftn/evening into early
  Saturday.

- Lighter winds return for the holiday weekend.

In the wake of the cold front, winds are now from the NW at
10-15kt across most of the local waters. Seas range from 3-4 ft
area-wide. Later this aftn, a persistent period of marginal SCA
criteria winds is likely with gusty westerly flow and for the
entire bay and lower James due to ample mixing and a dry
airmass. The winds is expected to become NW this evening, with
enough of a push of cold advection to continue with 15-20kt with
gusts to ~25kt. Have raised SCAs for the Bay and lower James
late this aftn into early Saturday morning to account for this.
These winds will increase bay waves to 2-3 ft.

Lower winds and seas are expected Saturday and Sunday with transient
high pressure sliding over the area. Unsettled weather and degraded
marine conditions potentially return early next week as low pressure
tracks near the area.

A MODERATE risk of rip currents is forecast at all beaches
today.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

Tidal anomalies are still running high early this morning, but
are finally starting to diminish. A few places in the mid to
upper Bay will likely experience nuisance flooding in
vulnerable locations through the next high tide cycle and have
added a Coastal Flood statement to cover this.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/JKP
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...