Virginia Beach, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

444
FXUS61 KAKQ 172340
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
740 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly warmer, drier weather persists tonight, with gradually
moderating temperatures and continued drying conditions Friday
into the weekend. Rain chances increase with approaching cold
front early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- High clouds increase later this evening keeping temperatures
slightly warmer.

- Much warmer day Friday as high pressure slides offshore.

Afternoon weather analysis shows an upper trough just off the coast
of New England and a ridge centered over the Great Lakes. At the
surface, high pressure still remains over the area. As of 3pm skies
remain clear with temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s to the
north and middle to upper 60s across the south.  High pressure will
slide offshore later this evening shifting winds from the N-NW
to S-SE. High level clouds will also move back across the area
later this evening and into tonight which will help keep
temperatures slightly warmer. Lows tonight will be in the lower
to middle 40s inland and upper 40s along the coast.

By Friday an upper ridge will be moving in across the area. While at
the surface the high pressure just remains offshore continuing
to advect warmer air. High temperatures for the Friday will be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s across VA/NC. While across the MD
Eastern Shore temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Breezy conditions will persist through the day as well with
sustained winds between 10 to 15 mph and gusts upwards of 25
mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry with warming temperatures through the weekend.

The upper ridge axis slides over the US East Coast late Friday into
Saturday. Breezy SW winds continue the warming trend, owing to the
tightening pressure gradient between the Bermuda Ridge offshore and
a cold front well to the W. Temperatures Friday night will be mild
for this time of year with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Saturday will be the warmest day of the weekend as high are progged
to reach into the middle to upper 80s. The breezy conditions are
expected to lower Saturday but sustained winds will still be between
10 to 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20mph. Lows Saturday will be in
the middle 60s. Saturday night a cold front will move south and will
stall over much of the area on Sunday causing a decent temperature
gradient across the area. Temperatures Sunday will be in the lower
to middle 80s across the south and upper 70s to lower 80s across the
north. Lows for Sunday will be back into the upper 50s as the cold
front moves across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- The next cold front approaches the area Tuesday with chances for
showers.

- Above average temperatures continue through the rest of the
forecast period.

High pressure off the Carolina coast continues to be pushed further
offshore as a low pressure system moves eastward from the Great
Plains. The cold front associated with this system continues to
appear weak with lower confidence for precip across the area.
Ensemble models have trended the timing of this system to be slower,
with the front now moving through the area Tuesday. GEFS and EPS
only have 30-40% probabilities of 0.1" or greater of QPF for the
area. This weak front likely won`t cause the temperatures to dip
down much as high pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday, with
above average temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the
majority of the area (slightly cooler on the Eastern Shore) through
the extended period. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Remaining mostly dry through much of the remainder
of the forecast period, with the next chances of rain likely not
until late in the week or the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all
terminals. Some upper-level cirrus will stream across the area
through tomorrow, with rain-free conditions continuing. Winds
will once again decouple overnight and most sites will
experience light and variable winds, but as high pressure moves
further offshore tomorrow, winds will shift to the south to
southwest and increase. Gusts of 20-25 kts are likely at all
sites starting at 15Z and will last at least through the evening
hours.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions continue through the end of the
week. Remaining mostly dry through the weekend. The next shot
at widespread precipitation looks to be early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase on Friday and continue into Saturday
  ahead of the next cold front.

Latest analysis reveals broad 1024+mb high pressure in place
over the eastern seaboard this afternoon. Winds were light and
variable, but averaged NNE ~5-8 kt. Waves 1-2 ft with seas 2-3
ft.

Mainly benign conditions across the waters this evening with
high pressure overhead, then sliding offshore on Friday. S-SW
flow slowly increases Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon in association with tightening pressure gradient ahead
of a warm front lifting through the local area, as low pressure
lifts across the Great Lakes. Local wind probs continue to
indicate high confidence for SCA conditions for the Ches Bay and
northern coastal waters during this period with winds ramping
up to 15-20 kt Friday afternoon and evening, with gusts to 25 kt
(30 kt gusts possible across the northern coastal waters), and a
SCA has been issued in these areas. Confidence in seeing
sustained SCA conditions is lower for the southern coastal
waters and Currituck Sound where the pressure gradient will not
be as strong, so will continue to cap winds just below SCA
thresholds. Confidence has increased enough to add in the James
River tomorrow evening into Sat afternoon, but will hold out the
remaining rivers for now with confidence of SCA winds there a
bit lower. Waves in the bay will build to 2-3 ft along with the
winds by late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, with SSE
wind wave also allowing seas to increase during this period
with 2-4 ft expected south of Cape Charles Light and 4-6 ft to
the north.

The cold front will struggle to make inroads toward the local
waters late Saturday into Sunday as the pressure gradient
relaxes. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast to return for Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to noon EDT Saturday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Friday to noon EDT Saturday
     for ANZ637-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday
     for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/HET
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...AJB/HET
LONG TERM...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...MAM/RHR