Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

442
FXUS61 KAKQ 221755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
155 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms return this evening, with some storms
potentially becoming strong to severe.

2) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 640 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms return this evening, with some
storms potentially becoming strong to severe.

A warm front is lifting through the area this morning, with winds
becoming southerly and dew points increasing in its wake.
Temperatures have struggled to drop lower than the upper 60s to
lower 70s, making for a warmer late June morning. Despite the
increasing moisture, the local radar remains echo-free, with any
forcing mechanism still well to our west/northwest.

Winds will become quite breezy today as the gradient tightens
between an approaching low and high pressure to our SE. Gusts of 20-
25 mph (25-30 mph on the Eastern Shore) are forecast during the
afternoon. Today`s convective forecast is turning out to be a little
tricky due to an upstream MCS moving across the Ohio River Valley.
This convection continues to track eastward overnight, despite the
typically unfavorable overnight environment. If this feature can
continue to push eastwards over the next few hours, cloud debris
could keep temperatures a few degrees cooler and could also
potentially push a more stable environment into our northern and
western counties this morning. This could delay the erosion of the
cap or even prematurely force early convective initiation along and
remnant boundaries. If this does occur, the environment may become
worked over which could inhibit much in the way of severe storms as
we saw with the system last week. With some evolving uncertainty
regarding the timing and coverage of any developing convection
today, have decided to delay the onset of convection, with storms
starting to enter the piedmont by mid-late afternoon and slowly
pushing through the area through the late evening into the overnight
hours.

SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather for
most of the area today, with damaging wind gusts being the main
threat. Any tornado threat will be co-located with where the warm
front, which will likely be north of our area. In terms of storm
mode, multicellular storms and bowing line segments are favored at
this time. Deep-layer bulk shear is not expected to be overly
strong, ranging from ~25-35 kt across the far north, tapering to ~20
kt south of Interstate 64. However, low-level lapse rates will again
be quite steep due to very warm surface temperatures, favoring the
potential for cold-pool dominated storms with water-loaded
downdrafts. Additionally, PWAT values increase to 1.75-2.25" through
the day, leading to the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
Widespread flooding issues are certainly not expected given very dry
antecedent conditions and fast motion of the storms, but we will
need to monitor urban and typical poor-drainage areas. The shower
and storm threat will continue through the early overnight hours
before tapering off. Due to the later expected start for convection,
the SE areas may be limited as the environment becomes less
favorable with the loss of daytime heating.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday
night into the weekend.

The front will move through the area on Tuesday, though it will take
its time. This will allow at least SE/S VA and NE NC to warm up into
the upper 80s with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Most
guidance is still suggesting that there will be some instability
across the area, especially near the coast, to support some shower
and thunderstorm development in the afternoon/evening hours. If the
front moves quicker, then these storms will struggle to develop, but
with very good model consensus, have kept likely rain chances for
the SE portion of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Some hi-res guidance is suggesting a low will develop along the
front and lift through the area on Tuesday, bringing a slug of
heavy rainfall. Due to the uncertainty in this, have not
included higher QPF or rain chances at this time. We will see
what the 12z suite depicts and adjust the forecast as necessary
today. After the front moves through, a drier airmass will
replace the current muggy airmass, which will keep Wednesday dry
and less humid. Even with the slightly cooler airmass,
temperatures will still reach near- normal for this time of
year, peaking in the mid to upper 80s. By Wednesday night, winds
will quickly shift back to the SE-S and bring back normal June
humidity amd temperatures. For the remainder of the week, a more
typical summertime pattern sets up for late week. Mainly
seasonable temperatures are expected, with diurnally driven,
scattered late-day and evening showers and storms possible each
day. Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s, with
overnight lows in the 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions continue through early evening at all terminals.
Gusty southwest winds has picked up across all terminals (gusts to
25 kt), and will decrease this evening to 5-10 kt. Scattered
showers/storms will move west to east across the area this evening.
There is still some uncertainty with the arrival time, but SBY and
RIC have the highest chance in seeing degraded flight conditions
from these storms, as storms will likely lose momentum as they move
eastward given the late time of day. Have included 3 hour TEMPOs for
RIC and SBY beginning 23z and 00z respectively, while maintaining
PROB30s for ECG and ORF from 01z-04/23. Storms look to fall apart
before reaching ECG, so have maintained VCSH for these terminals.
Behind the storms, there will likely be patchy low stratus/fog in
areas that received rainfall. Low-end MVFR CIGs have been included
for RIC and SBY after 06z/23 through sunrise.

Outlook: Additional flight restrictions from more showers/storms
Tuesday is likely, especially across the SE terminals as a front and
surface low moves across the area. Mainly dry/VFR Wednesday. Late
day showers/storms possible Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- S-SE winds strengthen today ahead of the next system. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for all marine zones north of the VA/NC
border from today through part of tonight.

- Benign, sub-SCA conditions are expected for much of the rest of
the week.

Winds have become S at around 10 kt well in advance of a low
pressure system tracking now just east of the mid-Mississippi River
Valley. This low is progged to continue tracking ENE and pass by
just to our north Tuesday morning. The low will drag a warm front
well north of the waters today. Also, the pressure gradient will
tighten ahead of the approaching low. As a result, southerly winds
will increase to 15-20 kt on the rivers, and 20-25 kt across part of
the bay and the offshore waters north of the VA-NC border (with
gusts to 30 kt) during the day today. Winds will be a few knots less
across the NC waters. Wind speeds will peak late this afternoon into
the early evening before veering to the SW and diminishing to ~15 kt
by early Tuesday morning. Seas will build to 3-4 ft south/4-6 ft
north. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all marine zones
north of the VA/NC border from late this morning through tonight.

Additionally, isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
evening, which will likely necessitate SMWs. As the low tracks to
our north, a weak cold front will cross the waters on Tuesday. Winds
shift to the NW by late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening behind the
front, and may increase slightly Tuesday night. There are varying
solutions with respect to wind speed behind the front, and while
forecast wind speeds are no higher than 15 kt, a brief period of low-
end SCAs can`t be ruled out on the bay late Tue-Tue night. Local
wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds peak between 10-25% on the bay
Tue evening/night. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected the
rest of the week as high pressure returns.

The rip current risk increases to high across the northern beaches
and moderate across VA Beach and Eastern Currituck today. The rip
current risk drops to moderate north/low south on Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-654-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...ERI/KMC