Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

045
FXUS61 KAKQ 280832
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
332 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Probabilities for snow and freezing rain continue to decrease
for the early week system.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend.

2) Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing
rain Monday night into Tuesday morning, but probabilities for any
accumulation continue to trend down.

3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 239 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and drier conditions are expected for the
weekend.

A coastal trough is still lingering off the Carolina coast this
morning, bringing cloud cover to portions of our area. All of the
rain has shifted south, and the local area has remained dry
overnight. A few land-based obs are reporting patchy fog, but
nothing too significant in terms of reduction of visibilities. The
coastal system will be departing the region today, with high
pressure expected to build across the area. Despite the light
northerly flow, temperatures will still be able to moderate back to
slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs reaching the
lower to mid 60s (55-60F on the Eastern Shore and immediate coast).
Sunday will feature southwest flow ahead and another chance for
above normal temperatures ahead of an approaching backdoor cold
front. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing
the aforementioned front moves through the forecast area Sunday.
There is a chance that a quicker front would lead to abruptly
falling temperatures and a large north-south gradient in high temps
across our CWA, while a slower front would allow for a longer period
of mild temperatures. Regardless of the timing of the front, well
above temperatures are forecast for most of the area. Behind the
backdoor cold front, temps abruptly drop into the 40, which could be
quite the shock in the wake of Sunday`s spring-time highs. Cooler
overnight Sunday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet
or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning, but
probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down.

A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional
chances for precipitation, some of which may be winter weather. High
pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually
slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid-
Atlantic. This is typically a favorable location for a high in
regards to possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air
and how quickly the high shifts offshore will be very important in
determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through
aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and freezing
rain are possible over portions of the area depending on the depth
of the cold air late Monday into early Tuesday. The past few model
suites have depicted the high to our north becoming increasingly
progressive, so the colder air does not stay in place long across
the area, and probabilities for both ice and snow accumulation
continue to drop with the 00z guidance. Due to dropping probs and
very marginal temperatures expected during the event, have basically
removed any accumulation of wintry weather at this point. With that
being said, some slick spots, especially on untreated and elevated
surfaces, could still develop for the Tuesday morning commute. We
will continue to monitor this system for any changes in
amounts/evolution/timing and adjust the forecast as necessary..

KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the
middle and end of next week.

After the cooler start to the week, warmer weather is on they way.
Ensemble guidance is depicting a large, enamel`s upper ridge over
the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature enamel`s well above
average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to
well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower to mid
70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to
near 50F. By the weekend, some guidance is edging very close to the
80F mark for inland areas. While there is good agreement on the
overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder
airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its
welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. Have continued
to maintain well above normal temperatures late week and into the
weekend, as there is not much support at this time for a lingering
cooler airmass. A series of weak fronts bring low-end chances for
showers toward the end of next week as well, but widespread rainfall
is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 107 AM EST Saturday...

Generally VFR conditions are being observed at all terminals this
morning, though ECG and ORF may see some MVFR to IFR CIGs in the
coming hours. Some BR development is also possible, with the highest
confidence being at SBY, so have included mention reduced VIS there.
Additionally, have included TEMPOs to try and capture the lower CIGs
through around sunrise, then conditions should start to improve
thereafter. Winds will remain light from the N/NE, becoming
variable at times, through the TAF period.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions prevailing through the weekend.
High pressure builds down into the region Sunday into Monday as
several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring
additional (wintry?) precip for the beginning of next week and
potential flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions with relatively light flow through Sunday
  morning.

- A cold front crosses the waters Sunday, with strong high
  pressure building NE of the area through Monday. SCAs are
  likely for much of the region.

Latest analysis indicates a weak sfc trough along an old frontal
boundary off the SE coast this morning, with high pressure situated
well to the NE of the region. A light N-NE wind prevails, with
seas 2-3 ft, and waves 1-2 ft at the mouth of the Bay, and 1
foot or less elsewhere. Northerly flow at 5-10 kt continues
this morning, then becoming variable to onshore in the aftn.
Winds shift to the S-SW at 10 kt or less tonight through Sunday
morning ahead of the next cold front approaching from the NW.

The backdoor cold front drops south through the local waters
Sunday, most likely during the early aftn for northern areas,
and late aftn farther south. The models have trended slightly
stronger with sfc high pressure (now progged at >1040 mb), to
build into the NE states, ridging S into the local area by
Monday. Fairly strong pressure rises (~10 mb/6 hr) are forecast
Sunday evening, followed by decent cold air advection overnight
through Monday morning. SCA conditions appear likely for much
of the area, Sunday night through at least midday Monday,
lingering through Monday night for elevated seas on the ocean.
Expect N-NE winds to around 20 kt with gusts to ~25 kt to be
common Sun night and Monday morning, gradually diminishing later
Monday. Seas build to 4-5 ft N and 5-7 ft S. The upper rivers
would be the region that could be too marginal for any headlines.
Thereafter, benign marine conditions are expected to return for
the mid to late week period.


Cold air advection behind that
front, along with enough of a compressing pressure gradient will
combine for quickly increasing N/NE winds late Sun aftn through
Monday. In-house wind probabilities are near 80-100% for winds
>18kt Sunday night into Monday morning, and SCA conditions
appear likely for much of the marine area, though winds are a
bit more marginal for the upper rivers. On the coastal waters,
building wind waves allow seas to increase to 4-5 ft N and 5- 7
ft S Sunday night through at least Monday night, into Tuesday
morning over southern waters). 5-6 ft seas over southern waters
well into the day Tuesday, before seas finally subside by the
middle of next week. Thereafter, benign marine conditions are
expected to return for the latter half of next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW/NB
AVIATION...ERI/NB
MARINE...LKB