Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

413
FXUS61 KAKQ 221914
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
314 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 3 and Marine Discussion to be updated shortly.

Shower and storms have developed along a stalled boundary across
SE portions of the area, leading to locally heavy
rainfall/flash flooding.

Temperatures continue to trend cooler Wednesday through
Thursday. Introduced rain chances across far NE portions of the
area Saturday-Sunday. Confidence in the forecast for this
weekend remains below average due to uncertainties with a
developing coastal low.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heavy rain continues across southeastern portions of the
area into this evening as a front lingers across the area.
Cooler, CAD conditions take hold for the remainder of the
forecast area.

2) Strong onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and rainy conditions
will continue on Wednesday. Rain chances gradually shift east
Thursday, potentially making for a dry end to the week. Gusty winds
will persist.

3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding
(inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the
Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds.
Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles
given the persistent northeast winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy rain continues across southeastern portions of
the area into this evening as a front lingers across the area.
Cooler, CAD conditions take hold for the remainder of the
forecast area.

This afternoon, high pressure is situated over Ontario, Canada
extending over into New England and into northern portions of the
Mid Atlantic. A nearly stationary front is draped across
southeastern portions of the forecast area (roughly along the VA/NC
border). Very heavy rain showers (and isolated storms) have
developed along and just to the north of the boundary over Hampton
Roads where multiple Flash Flood Warnings are in effect. Very
efficient, warm rainfall processes, this afternoon thanks to flow off
the warmer Atlantic/Chesapeake Bay waters combined with maximized
PWATs of ~2+" over SE Virginia. We have seen rainfall rates of 5"+
per hour at times this afternoon with the current showers.
Additional Flash Flood Warnings will likely be needed across
portions of Hampton Roads/SE Virginia and potentially into NE North
Carolina later this afternoon and evening as the activity continues
to slide south. Rainfall rates should gradually lighten up later
this evening into tonight as a cooler wedge airmass continues to
push into the area from the north. It`s a much different story for
locations outside of SE VA/NE NC where we are seeing low clouds and
mist/light showers, combined with much cooler temperatures in the
60s to lower 70s due to the developing CAD wedge. Temperatures
tonight will range from the mid 50s NW to around 70 SE.

Additionally, northeast winds will increase throughout this evening
and into tonight as the Canadian high pressure shifts east and low
pressure forms off the NC/SC coast. Locations along the coast,
including the entire Eastern Shore, Norfolk, Hampton Roads, and into
Currituck County will see wind gusts upwards of 25 to 30 mph. The
Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore including Ocean City and
Chincoteague will see their gusts build to 40 to 45 mph overnight.
These higher gusts will persist for the coastline through Thursday
night. Further inland, gusts to ~20mph are expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and rainy
conditions will continue on Wednesday. Rain chances gradually shift
east Thursday, potentially making for a dry end to the week. Gusty
winds will persist.

Cold air damming will overtake the area on Wednesday as high
pressure remains parked to our north. This will make for our coolest
day of the week as high temperatures top out in the low to mid 60s
for the western and northern inland areas, with low 70s for the SE
half of the CWA. It is possible that far NW portions of the area
(Louisa) may stay in the upper 50s. Inland ~20 mph wind gusts are
forecast through the day. Winds for coastal counties will
persistently be blowing around 20 to 25mph with gusts to 35+ mph.
The strongest winds will continue to be along the Atlantic coast
with gusts to 40-45mph expanding down the span of our coastline
through the day on Wednesday. These winds are forecast to stick
around through Thursday night and even into Friday as the tightened
pressure gradient between the strong high pressure to the north and
the strengthening low pressure over the ocean remains. With the CAD
wedge in place, the environment will be stable leading to mainly
steady stratiform rain across the area on Wednesday and Thursday.
Lows will cool off a few more degrees Wednesday night with low to
mid 50s inland and low 60s east.

Rain chances look to become more confined to eastern portions of the
area Thursday into the first part of Friday as a secondary surface
low forms along our coast and causes the main low to deepen, as well
as finally have the potential to gain some forward momentum. Models
still disagree on exactly where the low will be on Friday, with the
GFS moving it off to the northeast while the ECMWF still keeps it
closer to our shore. One solution will allow for winds to subside
later Friday and drier air to move in for the weekend, while the
other keeps the elevated impactful conditions lingering a bit
longer. For now, the NBM solution is mostly a blend of the two
solutions, keeping low-end rain chances lingering along the coast
(especially NE) through the weekend. It is possible that the
forecast may change substantially over the next few days for the
weekend as we get more clarity on the placement of this coastal low.

Highs on Thursday will still be well below normal as the
effects of the CAD remain, with lower 60s forecast west of I-95 and
upper 60s to lower 70s to the east. Thursday night will be rather
chilly with far northwestern and western cool spots dipping into the
upper 40s. If the low is able to shift to the northeast, our winds
will turn northerly Friday, as mentioned above, giving another
chance for more of the area to see lows in the lower 50s (likely
everyone except the coast). Highs will begin to moderate back into
the 70s Friday into the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding
(inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the
Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds.
Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles
given the persistent northeast winds.

Northeast winds increase to 20-25 kt today with strong NE winds
likely from tonight through Thursday night. This will will cause
water levels to rise across much of the area (especially along the
bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). Widespread minor tidal
flooding is expected by this evening/tonight`s high tide. Ramp up
Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for much of the area
(except the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore) from later today
through the start time of the Coastal Flood Watch (Wed morning-
evening depending on zone). A significant rise in tidal anomalies is
forecast on Wednesday. Moderate tidal flooding could begin along the
upper James and tidal Rappahannock/Potomac rivers by Wed AM, with
widespread moderate to locally major flooding forecast during the
Wednesday evening high tide. Moderate to locally major flooding is
expected to continue through at least the Thursday evening/night
high tide. Coastal FLood Watches remain in effect for a large
majority of the tidal area beginning Wednesday evening for most and
Wednesday morning for tidal southern Potomac, Rappahannock, and
upper James rivers. While it is a bit too early for Coastal Flood
Warnings, expect the watches to be upgraded to warnings with later
forecast packages. While water levels should gradually fall Friday-
Saturday as winds diminish a bit and become NNW, minor to moderate
tidal flooding seems likely through at least Friday evening and
possibly longer.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

This afternoon, a frontal boundary is slowly sagging south
across the area. At RIC and off to the NW, a cool air wedge has
set up with widespread low IFR CIGs. At the remaining sites, we
are we are currently seeing widespread MVFR CIGs. As the front
continues to sag south, widespread IFR CIGs as well as mist/light
rain showers will take hold across much of the area. Our coastal
sites (SBY, ORF, and ECG) likely stay MVFR through the forecast
period. In addition, very heavy rain showers/storms have
developed across SE portions of the area this afternoon along
the front which will allow for localized periods of IFR VSBYs.
NE winds become gusty, especially along the coast, later this
evening and especially tomorrow with gusts of 25 to 30+ knots
possible.

Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to persist through
most of the upcoming week. At least intermittent degraded
flight conditions are likely through Thursday. Coastal
terminals will also have elevated NE winds for an extended
period, with winds remaining elevated and shifting to the N-NW
into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA level winds are forecast today with east to northeast winds
increasing to 20 to 25 kt by the afternoon. Ramp up SCAs have been
issued for all marine zones that are under Gale Warnings.

- Confidence in a period of gales with NE winds remains very high
from tonight-Thursday/Thursday night. Gale Watches have been
upgraded to Gale Warnings for the ocean, bay, Lower James River, and
Currituck Sound. High-end SCAs have been issued for the upper
rivers.

- Seas build to 10-14+ feet, likely leading to dangerous marine
conditions.

Early morning wx analysis shows that the actual cold front is to the
south of the waters, with E-NE winds of 10-20 kt (highest north) and
3-6 ft seas. While the front is to our south, the strongest CAA will
take some time to reach the marine area. Conditions start to
deteriorate today with E-NE winds increasing to 20-25 kt by late in
the day. While guidance has come down by a knot or two with respect
to wind, there really is not a whole lot of change in forecast
thinking given the setup (impressive sfc high to our north/CAA over
warm waters). While a few gale force gusts are possible north of
Parramore Island by early evening, the first surge of stronger CAA
arrives tonight as the 1035-1040mb builds across eastern Canada and
low pressure begins to gradually deepen a couple hundred miles
offshore of the VA/NC coast.

Rapidly deteriorating marine conditions are expected across the bay
and ocean overnight, with winds increasing to ~30 kt by Wed AM with
gusts to 40 kt. Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings for
the bay, ocean, and lower James River. High-end SCAs have been
issued for the upper rivers starting this evening-tonight (where a
few gusts to 35 kt are possible but confidence was not high enough
to go w/ Gale Warnings). The pressure gradient tightens further on
Wed/Wed night as a stronger CAA surge arrives. Winds are forecast to
remain around 30 kt with gusts 40 kt on Wed, with the strongest
winds still expected Wednesday night through Thursday as the
strongest CAA arrives. 925mb winds are progged to increase to 40-45
kt during this time. With the unstable marine boundary layer and
water temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should
easily be able to mix down to the sfc. Therefore, confidence is
fairly high that we will see a period of sustained gale force winds
with gusts to 45 kt across the ocean and lower bay during the Wed
evening-Thu timeframe. Will continue to mention gusts as high as 45
kt in the MWW/CWF. which would lead to a period of sustained gale
force winds with gusts to 45 kt. Gale Warnings run through Thursday
evening for the upper bay, part of Thu night for the lower bay/lower
James, Friday morning for the ocean, and Friday afternoon for the
offshore (20-60nm) coastal waters. There is decent consensus in the
global models that winds become more northerly and diminish to 20-25
kt on the bay/Lower James Thursday night and to just below gale
criteria 0-20nm offshore Friday morning. While low pressure is
progged to rapidly deepen well offshore Friday-Saturday,
model/ensemble consensus shows it far enough away from the coast
that gale gusts would be confined to the 20-60nm offshore zones
after Friday morning. Winds gradually turn to the NNW by Fri
night/Sat AM. Local wind probs for 34+ kt gusts remain near 100%
through Thu, but drop to below 10% on the bay by early Fri AM, and
fall to 10-20% out to 20nm by late Friday morning. Therefore, did
not expand Gale Warnings too far out in time (except for the 20-60nm
zone). Nevertheless, will still have to monitor the rapidly
deepening offshore low Fri/Sat, and forecast changes are possible if
it looks like it will deepen closer to the coast. Given the
prolonged strong NE winds, seas are forecast to build to 10-14+ ft.
This will likely lead to dangerous marine conditions from late
Tuesday night through Thursday night.

Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by late today and will
continue through Thu with the prolonged onshore flow, and remain
high into the weekend due to elevated seas even as the winds become
NNW. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible from mid to late week
as well. High Surf Advisories have been issued for all beaches
starting late today and continuing through early Thursday evening
for now.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ024-025.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for MDZ025.
     Wind Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     MDZ025.
NC...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NCZ017-102.
     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for NCZ102.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ083-084-
     099-100-518-520-523.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for VAZ083-084-099-100-518-520-523.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for VAZ099-100.
     Wind Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     VAZ098>100.
     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ075>078-
     085-086-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for VAZ081-082-089-090-524-528.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ089-090-
     524-528.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ097-098-
     525-529>531.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 2 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for VAZ097-098-525-529>531.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ630-631.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-639-
     658.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ633-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ658.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ680-682-684.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ686.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ688.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/JKP
AVIATION...AJB/JKP
MARINE...ERI