Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

844
FXUS61 KAKQ 041908
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
308 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated full discussion. The threat for flooding continues
through the evening south of I-64. Decreasing rain chances
Wednesday through late this week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak front and surface low lift slowly back to the
north through tonight. The threat for flooding is greatest from now
through the evening.

2) Convective coverage is expected to decrease Wednesday and
especially late week into the weekend with warmer temperatures
returning to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak front and surface low lift slowly back to the
north through tonight. The threat for flooding is greatest from now
through the evening.

A stationary front remains over the area this afternoon and is
positioned from central to SE VA. A weak sfc low has begun to
develop along the front. Meanwhile, an upper low is spinning over GA
and a shortwave on the NE side of the low is moving north toward the
area. As a result, numerous tstms have developed along the front
(just south of the I-64 Corridor), which have prompted a few Flash
Flood Warnings. Rain rates have been impressive (1.5"-2" in 30 mins
as per gauges) given PWs on the order of 2-2.4". The storms will
gradually propagate to the SW along outflows through the evening,
with additional instances of flash flooding possible given the rain
rates and weak deep layer flow. The low and attendant front are
forecast to lift slowly northward through tonight. The front should
make it to the north of the CWA by sunrise on Wednesday. Tstms will
gradually decrease in coverage this evening with the loss of daytime
heating, but showers will remain possible through the night with the
front lifting north. The best precip chances shift to the Piedmont,
northern neck, and eastern shore overnight. While the greatest
threat for flooding will be from now-8 PM, isolated flooding can`t
be ruled out overnight. The weak winds aloft combined with
widespread clouds will limit shear/instability and the chance for
severe weather. Warm and humid overnight with lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Convective coverage is expected to decrease
Wednesday and especially late week into the weekend with warmer
temperatures returning to the area.

Showers and a few storms are possible Wednesday morning across the
MD Eastern Shore. Then, the front and shortwave will move well to
our north during the day. Upper heights also rise a bit as ridging
over the Atlantic builds westward. Convective coverage on Wednesday
will be much less than we are seeing today, with isolated to perhaps
scattered aftn/evening storms possible across much of the area. WPC
has maintained the Marginal ERO for much of the area. Precip
coverage is expected to further decrease late week into the weekend
as the upper trough to the west lifts northward and away from the
area and ridging continues to build westward. With lower shower and
storm coverage, temperatures return into the upper 80s and low 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Afternoon heat index values climb back into
the upper 90s and low 100s late week into the weekend. While
apparent temps may briefly creep into Heat Advisory range (105+) in
the afternoon, am not expecting the need for heat headlines at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Tuesday...

A frontal boundary remains stalled from south-central to
southeast VA early this afternoon. Showers and a few tstms have
developed along it (INVOF PHF/ORF/RIC) with additional
convection moving north toward ECG. Weak low pressure develops
along the front as it lifts northward from late aftn-tonight.
The front should move north of SBY by 12z Wed. Increasing
coverage of showers and storms is expected this afternoon from
central to SE VA. Confidence is low with respect to coverage and
exact timing of convection at any one terminal so have PROB30
groups for now but will amend to TEMPOs as needed. Convection
decreases across VA/NC this evening as the front moves north.
Rain chances may increase at SBY later tonight. Another round of
MVFR to IFR stratus is expected this evening-tonight (best chc
of IFR is at RIC/SBY/PHF).

Outlook: Shower/storm chances continue on Wed, but less storm
coverage is expected. A more typical Summer pattern returns for
the latter half of the week, with a somewhat lower coverage of
late afternoon and evening isolated to scattered showers and
storms Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through late
  week, outside of local thunderstorm influences.

Expansive high pressure remains centered near Bermuda this
afternoon. Locally, there is a weak stationary boundary that bisects
the waters. The flow is on the weak side, generally around 10 kt,
with the direction varying from the S-SE for the southern waters and
the E-NE for the northern waters. There are also some showers and
storms near the James River and lower Chesapeake Bay, but most of
the activity today should remain over land or nearshore. Seas are
around 3 ft, except ~4 ft in our 20-60 nm ocean zones. There are no
headlines currently in effect.

The aforementioned front will lift slowly back to the north this
evening into tonight and winds will shift to the S or SE (at ~10 kt)
for all waters. Additional showers and storms will be possible in
the Chesapeake Bay vicinity through the night as well. The front
will linger across the area through Wednesday before starting to
wash out. Locally degraded marine conditions are likely to accompany
the stronger storms through mid-week, mainly in the form of
visibility restrictions in heavy rain and frequent lightning, but
some localized gusty winds and confused seas will also be possible.
As the front washes out, weak high pressure will rebuild over the
area, then slide offshore for late week. A more typical summer setup
resumes, with Sub-SCA S-SW winds ~10-15 kt developing, turning S-SE
nearshore with seabreeze circulations each afternoon. Daily
afternoon and evening shower and storm chances persist into the
weekend, though chances will be much lower Thursday/Friday and into
the weekend.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk looks to persist across
the northern beaches through midweek, with a low risk for the
southern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...SW/NB