Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

100
FXUS61 KAKQ 250538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1238 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region slides offshore tonight. Another
system impacts the area Tuesday into the midweek, bringing
another chance for some light showers Tuesday afternoon through
early Wednesday night. Much cooler and drier conditions then
follow from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 910 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Mainly clear this evening, with increasing clouds overnight.
  Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Latest analysis shows ~1026 mb high pressure centered
immediately off the Mid-Atlantic coast this evening. To the
west, a mid-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low
continues to lift NE over the central and southern plains.
Temperatures this evening range from the upper 30s to mid 40s,
with some mid 30s over interior S-central VA/interior NE NC
where the sky is clear and the wind is calm.

The high moves offshore tonight, as the weak low over the
Plains tracks ENE toward the mid-South tonight. Temperatures
will stabilize or rise slightly overnight with increasing mid
to high clouds, as a warm front approaches the area from the
south. Cool with lows in the mid 30s-lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Another storm system approaches tomorrow, with showers likely
  from Tue afternoon through Tuesday night.

- Additional rounds of showers will be possible on Wednesday as
  a cold front moves through, drying out Wednesday night.

- Rainfall amounts will be light, averaging a tenth to a quarter
  of an inch through Wednesday evening.

The previously referenced weak southern stream system slides
from the mid-South toward the interior northeast tomorrow
afternoon into early Wednesday, as a much stronger surface low
occludes over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The warm front
associated with the initial system lifts across the region
tomorrow afternoon and evening, with associated weak overrunning
moisture to bring a gradual thickening and lowering of cloud
cover during the day on Tuesday. Expect some scattered light
rain showers lift across the overspreading the western 1/3 to
1/2 of the FA Tuesday afternoon. Despite the increasing cloud
cover, southerly flow will allows temps to moderate into the 60s
for most on Tuesday, with upper 60s-70F readings expected
across SE VA/NE NC). The only exception will be across the far
west, where increasing clouds and late morning and afternoon
showers likely hold the piedmont (US-15 corridor) in the 55 to
60 range.

More widespread showers cross into the area Tuesday night into
early Wednesday AM, as the initial low slides by just to our NW.
PoPs increase to 50-80% area-wide Tuesday night. Temps remain
in the upper 50s-60F Tue night. There is some weak elevated
instability evident in forecast sounding, so a few embedded
rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

The stronger second system over the Great Lakes is progged to
track NE into Ontario/Quebec from Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This system will drag a fairly strong cold front through
the FA Wed evening-early Wed night. Another round of scattered
showers, perhaps with an additional rumble of thunder or two,
are possible along and ahead of the front on Wednesday, with the
highest precip chances shifting east to SE VA/NE NC. Model
trends continue to trend faster and drier, and thus expect rain
chances end from WNW- ESE Wed aftn into early Wed evening, with
a quickly clearing sky Wed night into Thursday morning. Mild in
the quasi- warm sector on Wed, with highs in the lower 70s in
most areas. Lows fall sharply behind the front into the mid
30s-40F Wed night, as CAA arrives from the WNW.

Areal average QPF appears to be meager with this event, with up
to a few tenths of an inch of rain expected in total from
Tue afternoon through Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Drier and much cooler weather returns from Thanksgiving Day into
  the weekend.

- Blustery and cool conditions Thursday and Friday with highs in
  the 40s to near 50, along with gusty N-NW winds gusting to
  20-25 mph.

An expansive upper level trough digs down across the eastern
United States on the heels of the departing front, bringing a
markedly cooler, drier airmass to the area for Thanksgiving Day
into next weekend. 850 mb temps are expected to fall to around
-10C by Friday AM, with gradually moderating temperatures this
 weekend into early next week.

Blustery and cool for Thanksgiving Day with high temperatures
to range from the upper 40s to lower 50s, with NNW winds gusting
to 25 mph. Early morning lows mainly in the 20s inland to low
30s at the coast Friday morning. Temps on Friday likely max out
only in the mid to upper 40s on breezy W-NW winds again gusting
up to 25 mph. Winds diminish a bit, as chilly 1032+mb high
pressure builds into the region Fri night. This will likely be
the coldest night of the season so far, with lows in the lower-
mid 20s in most areas, and upper teens are certainly possible
in typically cooler areas over the Piedmont. Mostly sunny, dry
conditions, and cooler temperatures then linger through the
weekend, though increasing heights/thicknesses and a modifying
airmass likely allow for temps to moderate a bit over the
weekend into early next week, with warmer than normal
conditions on tap for next week, as strong troughing develops
over the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1235 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening
before CIGs lower tonight. High clouds will gradually increase
from W-E this morning with a calm to very light SE wind. Clouds
thicken and lower to 5-10kft by the aftn/early evening, but
mainly dry conditions are expected, aside from a ~20% chc of
light rain at RIC later in the aftn. The wind is expected to
become SSE 5-10kt later Tuesday morning into the aftn.

A better chance for rain showers and periods of degraded flight
conditions arrive Tuesday night, primarily after 03z/26 with
MVFR to IFR CIGs likely at RIC/SBY/PHF as a weak warm front
lifts through the region. VFR/MVFR conditions likely prevail
through most of the night at ORF/ECG. The best chance of showers
is between 05-12z Wednesday morning. Isolated tstms can`t be
ruled out, but strong/severe storms aren`t expected. Winds
become S-SSW at 10-12kt with gusts to 20kt tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers/tstms are possible Wednesday
aftn/evening along and just ahead of a strong cold front. VFR
conditions prevail Wednesday night through Saturday as a dry and
colder airmass overspreads the region. A WNW wind of 8-12kt
with gusts up to 20kt is expected Thanksgiving Day. Breezier
Friday with a NW wind of 10-15kt gusting to 20-25kt. High
pressure then builds over the area Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake
  Bay, coastal waters north of Parramore Island, and the tidal
  river for Tuesday afternoon into early Monday morning.

- A stronger cold front brings a round of more solid SCAs from
 Wednesday night through the end of the work week.

High pressure is currently located above the local area keeping
light N-NW winds around 5-10 kt. Sub-SCA winds will continue through
the day Tuesday. Then, a strong trough will move towards the eastern
US with a surface low pressure system moving towards the region from
the Deep South. With this low pressure, the pressure gradient
between the overhead high pressure and the low will allow SSE winds
to become elevated Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a strong
cold front. Marginal Small Craft Conditions are likely as winds
increase to ~20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Ches. Bay and coastal
waters north of Parramore Island. South of Parramore Island winds
will be slightly lower at 15-20 kt. Waves and seas will additionally
increase to 2-3 ft in the bay and 4-5 ft in the northern coastal
zones. SCAs have been issued for the bay, tidal rivers, and the
northern coastal waters from Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.
Confidence is highest for reaching SCA conditions for winds in the
bay and rivers, with lower confidence in the ocean, but with seas
building, there is medium confidence for SCA conditions in the
ocean. During the day Wednesday, winds will become sub-SCA at SW ~15
kt in the bay and 15-20 kt in the coastal waters.

Then, the strong front with the system will move through the region
Wednesday night, which will then increase the winds again. Though
water temperatures have dropped into the 50s, this front will bring
a very cold airmass to the area and solid SCA conditions are
expected starting Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Winds will
remain elevated through the end of the work week, with the strongest
winds looking most likely Thursday night. A few gale force gusts
aren`t out of the possibility Thursday night, but most guidance and
local probs have low confidence, but this will continued to be
monitored in subsequent forecasts. During this timeframe, waves and
seas will increase to 3-4 ft in the bay and 3-5 ft in the ocean.
High pressure will build in behind the front by the weekend with sub-
SCA conditions returning likely Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...KMC/NB