Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

753
FXUS61 KAKQ 212352
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
652 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Blizzard Warnings have been issued for the Eastern Shore. Winter
Storm Watches have been expanded farther inland and converted to
Winter Storm Warnings across portions of the Northern Neck where
confidence in heavy snow was the highest. Storm Warnings have been
issued for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light with Gale
Warnings in effect for the rest of the local

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong coastal low impacts the region Sunday into Monday,
bringing heavy accumulating snow, strong winds, and hazardous marine
conditions to portions of the area.

2) Minor coastal flooding is forecast with the Sunday night/early
Monday high tide cycle, particularly along the Atlantic coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 400 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong coastal low impacts the region Sunday into
Monday, bringing heavy accumulating snow, strong winds, and
hazardous marine conditions to portions of the area.

Aloft, a strong upper level trough dives out of the Midwest tonight
before quickly becoming neutrally tilted by early Sun afternoon and
negatively tilted by late Sun afternoon into Sun night. At the
surface, an area of low pressure forms along the Southeast coast
tonight before moving NE into Sun. As the upper level divergence
reaches the low, strong cyclogenesis is expected Sun afternoon into
Sunday night. This will result in rain changing over to snow from N
to S Sun afternoon and evening. Models show the low dropping in
pressure from ~1000mb at 1 PM Sun to ~975mb by 1 AM Mon and then
continuing to deepen as it moves offshore. Models have now come into
better agreement with respect to the track of the low and now most
model guidance has the low tracking just offshore of the Lower MD
and VA Eastern Shore Sun evening/Sun night before moving offshore
into Mon. Given the strength of the low and how close it will be to
the Eastern Shore, both winds and snowfall have trended higher with
blizzard conditions now expected. As such, have upgraded to Blizzard
Warnings for the Lower MD and VA Eastern Shore from 1 PM Sun through
7 PM Mon with the overlap of strongest winds and snowfall occurring
Sun evening through Sun night. Winds could gusts as high as 45-50mph
with snowfall totals of 8-14" across the Lower MD Eastern Shore and
3-8" across the VA Eastern Shore.

Farther inland, confidence for heavy snow remains more uncertain
given marginal surface temperatures and rate-driven temps and precip
types (higher rates will help transition from rain to snow quicker
and vice versa). Will note that while rain may mix with or
occasionally change over to snow as early as Sun morning across
portions of the Piedmont, accumulation prior to around 4 PM Sun
will be challenging given very marginal temps and the higher
sun angle in late February. Nevertheless, accumulation is still
expected by late Sun afternoon into Sun night. Will note that
since models have trended a bit farther west with the low,
confidence has increased across portions of the Northern Neck
with EPS probs for >6" of snow around 50-70% and EPS probs for
>3" of snow around 80-90%+. As such, have upgraded this area to
a Winter Storm Warning. Given the increasing snowfall totals,
have also expanded the Winter Storm Watch a bit farther inland
as well. Given how much models have trended over the past 24
hours and lingering uncertainty with respect to how much snow
will accumulate farther inland, have opted to hold off on Winter
Weather Advisories for this forecast cycle. The EPS probs for
>3" of snow has increased to 50% all the way to Richmond with
lower (but nonzero) probs extending across most of the FA.
Nearly all model guidance continues to show strong banding and
heavy rates of 1- 2"+/hour developing Sun evening inland as the
surface low rapidly deepens and the upper level system moves
overhead. As such, there likely will be a quick transition from
rain to heavy wet snow for most of the area late Sun afternoon
into Sun evening as the band slowly pivots E. High snowfall
rates can overcome warm and wet surface conditions and lead to
rapid accumulation amidst otherwise marginal surface temps.
Additionally, if rates are high enough, cooler air aloft will be
pulled down to the surface, likely dropping temps to around
freezing (as opposed to 33-34F). As such, we have essentially
two possible solutions. The first is that rates are lighter and
most areas struggle to accumulate more than 1". The other
possible solution is that rates overperform and we quickly
accumulate at least a few inches of snow with high-end Winter
Weather Advisory to low- end Winter Storm Warning criteria
snowfall. Either of these is possible (or something in the
middle). Therefore, will wait for the 00z model guidance to see
which of the two scenarios is more likely. In any case, at least
Winter Weather Advisories are likely going to be needed for a
large portion of the area.

Uncertainty remains with how long precip will linger across the
Northern Neck and Eastern Shore with some model guidance keeping
snow through most of the day Mon. Any snow tapers off by Mon evening
as the low moves farther offshore. Outside of the snow, winds gust
to 30 mph inland, 35 mph along the coast, and 45-50 mph across the
Eastern Shore Sun evening through Mon. Highs warm above freezing Mon
with lows Mon night in the low-mid 20s for most (upper 20s along the
coast). As such, any water or slush on the roadways will likely
refreeze Mon night. Temperatures will be below average to begin the
week, with a moderating trend by midweek ahead of another cold
front. There is a chance of rain with this cold front by late week.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding is forecast with the Sunday
night/early Monday high tide cycle along the Atlantic coast.

Strong onshore flow is expected on Sunday as low pressure
strengthens offshore. As a result, tidal anomalies are expected to
rise, especially along the Atlantic coast and particularly across
the northern Eastern Shore which will be closest to the strong low.
Ocean City has the potential to see high-end minor tidal flooding
with the Sunday night/early Monday morning high tide. Down the
coast, minor flooding is also possible at Chincoteague. Tides remain
elevated through Monday before gradually diminishing early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the evening, with degraded conditions
expected to quickly start early Sunday morning. MVFR CIGs and VSBY
will impact all terminals between 09-12z. CIGs and VSBY will
continue to degrade throughout the day Sunday, as a low pressure
system off the coast deepens just offshore. IFR CIGs will move in as
the low reaches the area around 12-15z. NE winds will begin to
increase around this time with gusts up to 20-25 kt, highest towards
the north and near the coast. Rain will likely begin in the
afternoon and switch over to snow in the late evening, just near the
end of the 00z/21 TAF period.

Outlook: Flight restrictions will continue Sunday night into Monday
for all terminals, with LIFR to VLIFR conditions likely for SBY due
to snow or blowing snow. Monday will remain breezy, as drier air and
high pressure filters into the region, with a return to VFR
conditions later Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 PM EST Saturday...

 Key Messages:

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions persist tonight into the first
  half of Sunday.

- A strong storm system will impact the waters Sunday afternoon
  through Monday.

- All previous Gale and Storm Watches have been converted to
  Gale/Storm Warnings.

Afternoon analysis shows weak low pressure along the stalled front
in the Carolinas and Georgia. Winds are generally light E or SE this
afternoon and similar conditions are expected tonight.

Dangerous marine conditions are expected, mainly for the second half
of Sunday through Monday as low pressure lifts up the coast.
Consensus of the 12z/21 guidance has continued to shift the low a
bit closer to the coast Sunday evening while rapidly deepening.
Models now strengthen the low to ~985mb near the coast and ~970mb as
the low starts to pull away around sunrise Monday. Given the better
model agreement, an upgrade to Gale and Storm Warnings is warranted
with this forecast cycle where previous Gale/Storm watches were in
place. Maintained the timing from the watches with warnings going
into effect at 6 PM Sunday. A period of ramp-up SCA conditions is
likely Sunday afternoon as winds/waves/seas begin to increase. The
current forecast shows winds becoming N at 20-25 kt (w/ gusts to 30
kt) by Sunday afternoon before becoming NW Sunday night and
increasing to 30-35 kt with gusts to 40-45 kt. For the coastal
waters north of Cape Charles Light, winds increase to 30-40 kt with
gusts 50 to 55 kt possible. Peak winds are expected to occur between
7 PM Sunday and 10 AM Monday before diminishing to 20-25 kt with
gusts to 30 kt Monday afternoon and lingering through Monday night
(with the wind direction remaining NW). SCA winds are expected to
continue through much of Tuesday morning before finally dropping
below SCA levels during the day on Tuesday as high pressure returns
to the area. Calmer conditions later Tuesday through the first half
of Wednesday before another round of (marginal) SCA conditions is
possible later Wednesday through Thursday.

Waves build to 4-6 ft Sunday evening and linger in the 3-5 ft
range into Tuesday. Seas will increase Sunday, peaking at 10-13
ft N and 5-8 ft S early Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     VAZ099-100.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for VAZ064-083-090-512-517-518-523>525.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     VAZ075>078-084>086-519>522.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ630>638-656-658.
     Storm Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/RMM
AVIATION...KMC/RHR
MARINE...AJB/RHR