Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

820
FXUS61 KAKQ 200742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
242 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing confidence for a potentially significant to severe
winter storm and very cold temps this weekend, though
uncertainties remain regarding coverage, timing, and precip
type.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold and dry weather prevails through Wednesday, with today
being the coldest of the days. Temperatures moderate on Thursday
ahead of the next system.

2) Chances for a significant to potentially severe winter storm
continue to increase this weekend. Exact details remain unclear
at this time, but users should keep a close eye on the forecast
this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold and dry weather prevails through Wednesday,
with today being the coldest of the days. Temperatures moderate on
Thursday ahead of the next system.

A deep-layer trough will remain situated over the eastern CONUS
today. At the surface, cold Canadian high pressure gradually builds
down from the northern Plains into the MS Valley, eventually
settling over the area Wednesday. A reinforcing cold front is
currently crossing the area with another round of cold and very dry
air filtering in from the NW. Highs struggle to get above freezing
across our northern and northwest counties today, and 30s elsewhere
outside of far SE VA/NE NC where lower 40s are forecast. It will be
cold tonight as high pressure moves overhead. Temperatures drop back
into the teens for much of the area away from the coast with even
some upper single digits possible at the typically colder locations.

The upper flow turns more zonal for the middle of the week. This
should allow temps to moderate into the 40s Wednesday and then 50s
by Thursday. A series of weak cold fronts will move through
Wednesday night and again Thursday night. While these will be mainly
dry (as the best forcing remains N and NW of us), cannot completely
rule out a light rain shower on Thursday. Cooler temps return for
Friday behind these fronts, but the coldest air doesn`t arrive until
the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Chances for a significant to potentially severe
winter storm continue to increase this weekend. Exact details remain
unclear at this time, but users should keep a close eye on the
forecast this week.

There remains a very impressive medium range signal for a
potentially significant to severe winter storm from the latest
deterministic/ensemble guidance. Models have trended slightly slower
with the onset of winter weather, though precipitation could still
begin as early as Saturday AM. However, uncertainties still
remain in regards to exact precipitation evolution. Details
below:

There will be a very strong push of low-level CAA Saturday, with 850-
925mb temperatures dropping to -10 to -15 C across much of the area
as 1045+mb Arctic high pressure builds into the midwest. This will
translate to temperatures dropping into at least the teens
(potentially single digits) for much of the area Friday
night/Saturday AM. Temperatures will then struggle to to get out of
the 20s on Saturday outside of far SE VA/NE NC where lower 30s are
possible. The cold air likely lingers throughout the weekend and
even into early next week, with the NBM showing below freezing high
temperatures for much of the area through at least Monday. Regarding
moisture, the upper pattern appears quite favorable for an active
storm track and a significant winter event, with a strong Alaskan
ridge, an active/amplified southern stream over the S/SW CONUS, and
the aforementioned troughing to our N. There is increasing agreement
among most model guidance and ensembles on an expansive precip
shield blossoming in the central/southern Plains on Friday,
expanding ENE into the Deep South and TN Valley by Saturday as a
strong subtropical jet expands NE and strengthens. This precip will
overrun the very cold airmass, likely leading to a large area of
wintry precip across the central and southern CONUS.

For us locally, there still remains several uncertainties with
respect to timing and specific precip types (especially S/SE),
though the deterministic and ensemble guidance remains consistent in
showing an impactful winter weather event for our area. As mentioned
above, precip could begin as early as Saturday AM, though 00z model
guidance has started to trend a bit slower, with precip starting
Saturday afternoon or even Saturday evening. The most likely time
for snow/sleet/freezing rain looks to be from late Saturday through
Sunday (potentially lasting into early Monday AM). Both
deterministic models and ensemble guidance have ticked up a bit in
regards to QPF, now showing a moderate-high likelihood for 1.0-1.5+"
of liquid equivalent precip with this event. The main question still
remains whether we see snow, sleet, freezing rain, or some
combination. With the strong high/impressive Arctic airmass building
in, think p-type would be freezing or frozen everywhere except for
maybe southside Hampton Roads and NE NC (and it could very well be
mostly snow here as well depending on storm track).

Snow probabilities off the 00z suite of models are probably about as
impressive as we have seen in some time. Both the EPS (ECMWF
Ensemble) and EPS AI show 60-80%+ probs of total snowfall >= 6"
(using 10:1 ratios), with 30-60%+ probs of >=12". There are even
some low probs for higher amounts (18" and 24"). The GEFS (GFS
Ensemble) tells a similar story with very high probs (at this time
range) for >= 6" and >= 12". The CMCE (Canadian Ensemble) has
the highest probs focused towards the northern half of the
area, with higher sleet and freezing rain potential elsewhere as
warmer air moves into the mid levels. These chances are likely
to waver back and forth some over the next few days as the finer
details become clearer. In summary, there is continued,
increasing confidence in a significant to severe winter weather
event for our area. Exact details regarding precip timing,
coverage, and type remain uncertain and should be resolved over
the next few days. Stay tuned!

Wintry precip aside, there is high confidence in very cold air
spilling into the region for the weekend into early next week. Could
certainly see widespread lows in the single digits Monday AM. Should
any snow cover be present, some areas could see 0F readings!

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail today with just some passing mid-high
clouds early this morning as a cold front moves through the
region. Light W-SW winds shift to the NW early this morning as
the boundary pushes through. WNW winds around 10 kt are expected
this afternoon with occasional gusts to 20 kt. SKC skies and
calm winds tonight.

Outlook: Mostly dry/VFR through Thursday. A cold front
potentially crosses the area Thursday with only a 20% chance of
showers at this time. Low-end precip chances continue into
Friday. Winter weather is possible at all terminals this
weekend, but it is too early for specifics.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected through mid week.

- Increasing potential for a stronger system to impact the waters
  this weekend.

Marginal SCA conditions early this morning should improve as high
pressure builds into the region behind a cold front. Winds have been
very slow to increase so far this morning but hi-res guidance
suggests a modest uptick prior to sunrise. Current headlines are set
to expire at 4am/09z but may need to be extended by a few hours if
observations trend toward the guidance. Thereafter, NW winds
decrease through the day with generally benign marine expected
through mid week. High pressure moves offshore Wednesday with flow
becoming SW ahead of the next front. The chance for SCA conditions
ahead of this feature has decreased with marginal winds and only
limited potential for 4-5 ft seas across the northern coastal waters
(well offshore). The late week period will feature another cold
front dropping southward Thursday night as very strong (1050+mb)
high pressure dives southeast from the Canadian Prairies. This will
usher in an extended period of N and NE winds through the weekend as
low pressure forms along the stalled front south of the local
waters. Strong SCAs or gale conditions are on the table during this
period depending on where the low forms and tracks. Very cold air
will move into the region this weekend through the first half of
next week, bringing at least some potential for freezing spray to
the area waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/ERI/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR