Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

650
FXUS61 KAKQ 090714
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
314 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update key messages and discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widely scattered showers and isolated storms are
possible this afternoon and evening. Next chance of widespread rain
Sunday night and Monday.


2) Seasonable temps Tuesday through Friday with
another chance of rain and potential storms Wednesday/early Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widely scattered showers and isolated storms are
possible this afternoon and evening. Next chance of widespread rain
Sunday night and Monday.

The axis of a relatively weak mid level trough along with embedded
shortwaves will pivot over the east coast today. This, along with
the moisture return via southerly sfc flow, may be enough to trigger
a few showers today. However, the strongest forcing is split to the
FA`s north and south and despite increasing dewpoints, the
overall moisture profile is rather dry. Therefore, coverage
should be rather low. Best chance at rain or even an isolated
thunderstorm will be immediately along the coast (~30% PoP) and
up on the MD Eastern Shore (40-50% PoP) this afternoon.
Otherwise, expecting a mild and breezy day. Highs will be in the
upper 70s and winds will gust 20-25mph. Pleasant weather
continues Sunday. It will be warmer with highs in the mid 80s,
mostly sunny except immediately near the coast, and only light
winds.

A cold front with low pressure developing along it, along with and
UL trough supporting it from aloft, will bring widespread
showers later Sunday night into Monday. The GEFS probs of 0.1"
or greater stayed pretty steady in the 00z suite at 70-90%, but
did note a downward trend in the probs out of the ECMWF Ens
which dropped to less than 50% over much of the FA. As far as
storm potential goes, the timing of front will make it difficult
to get instability far enough north to impact any of the local
area. The NAM (which does tend to run a bit hot) indicates
instability making into NE NC and Hampton Roads, but it`s the
only one so far. Any thunderstorms that do form will likely be
confined to the far SE.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temps Tuesday through Friday with
another chance of rain and potential storms Wednesday/early Thursday.

Below average temps behind the cold front expected Tues with highs
in the upper 60s. Near normal temps in the mid to upper 70s then
return for the rest of the week. Still looking at another front
moving through the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing a round of
showers and maybe some thunderstorms. Still a lot of uncertainty
around whether or not we can get strong storms out of the
system. The 00z guidance suite continues to show a strong UL
trough with the UL low potentially dipping as far south as the
Mid- Atlantic. This flow would support strong storms, but the
potential overnight timing would very much limit instability.
Still certainly worth keeping an eye on as a timing shift of 12
hours or so could raise severe potential.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/09 TAF period. SCT-BKN high
level cloud cover is spread across the region and will persist
through the evening. A weak system passing overhead may spark a
isolated showers today. Confidence is rather low in these
showers impacting the terminals, but did add Prob30s to ORF,
ECG, and SBY for this afternoon since they have the best chance
at seeing a shower based on latest high res guidance. SSW winds
become breezy this afternoon with gusts of 15-20kt, then
diminish again after 00z.

Outlook: An area of low pressure approaches the region late
Sunday into Monday, bringing the potential for additional
showers and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 710 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs have been issued for the bay north of Little Creek this
  evening-tonight and low-end/marginal SCAs are possible across
  the northern Ocean.

- Primarily sub-SCA conditions prevail through this weekend,
  though elevated southerly winds develop tonight/Sat.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely Monday into Tuesday, with
  increasing N winds, as deepening low pressure moves offshore,
  followed by high pressure building in from the NW.

The latest wx analysis depicted high pressure just offshore,
with an increasing pressure gradient across the Ches Bay and
coastal waters. SE winds have already increased to 15-20 kt
across the lower bay with S winds occasionally gusting to around
25 kt across the northern coastal waters. The pressure gradient
continues to increase this evening into tonight as the high
shifts offshore. This will allow winds to turn to the south and
increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Given late afternoon
obs reflecting the higher model guidance, with respect to wind
speed, and the model guidance continuing to support a period of
15-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25 kt overnight across the Ches
Bay, have expanded the SCAs to include the lower Ches Bay
(apart from the mouth of the bay). Additionally, have extended
the SCAs for the middle bay through 6 AM Sat. Still, boundary
layer mixing will be poor over the waters given the WAA regime
and there will be a difference in wind speeds in elevated
sensors vs. lower level sites.

Across the northern coastal waters, a few gusts to around 25 kt
have been noted mainly at Ocean City. However, the Delaware Bay
Buoy offshore has not yet seen gusts to 25 kt and the limited
buoy data (and model guidance) doesn`t support 5 ft seas. As
such, have held off on SCAs for the coastal waters at this time.
Nevertheless, the continued, elevated southerly flow could
eventually lead to ~5ft seas off the northern Ocean zones later
Saturday, with a potential SCA possible there. Mostly benign
marine conditions are then expected Saturday night and Sunday as
the pressure gradient weakens as high pressure returns. The
better chance for a more significant event arrives Monday into
Tuesday, as low pressure deepens while tracking along an
advancing frontal boundary, and continues to intensify offshore
Mon night as the next area of high pressure builds in from the
NW Tuesday. Northerly winds are anticipated, along with ample
mixing, so SCA headlines are likely for most, if not all of the
marine area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ630-631.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI/RMM