Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

696
FXUS61 KAKQ 312310
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
710 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion.

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into
early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday, but no rain is
expected.

2) A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but
confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also
expected to continue through at least the first few days of
November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend
continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday, but
no rain is expected.

Mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures prevail across the
local area this afternoon. A large area of high pressure has been
building southward into the Mid-Atlantic behind last night`s (dry)
cold front. Aloft, a large area of mid/upper-level clouds are
streaming eastward ahead of a sprawling, diffuse shortwave trough.
These clouds gradually overspread the area later today and persist
through most of the weekend. However, there certainly will be some
sunshine on Sunday. The weather also looks ideal for any evening
festivities this Halloween with trick-or-treating temperatures in
the mid 50s to lower 60s, light winds, and dry conditions. Chilly
tonight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, except upper 40s to
near 50 F at the immediate coast. Patchy frost is possible by
tomorrow morning, but is not expected to be widespread enough to
warrant any advisories (plus it`ll be early November so the
concern for minor impacts is lower).

Temperatures warm a few degrees on Sunday and Monday, with highs
ranging from mid 60s to lower 70s. The warmest temps will tend to
occur away from the coast due to continuing onshore flow keeping
coastal locations a few degrees cooler. Temps warm further Tuesday
as a NNW-SSE ridge axis moves overhead. Highs should be in the 70s
for all of the area and interior portions of southern VA and NE NC
could approach the upper 70s. While some rain chances existed for
the Monday-Tuesday timeframe a few days ago, there is strong
consensus among the global ensembles, AI guidance, and NBM on
very low (<5%) PoPs, mainly due to unfavorable forcing aloft
and dry low levels. Warm again on Wednesday with high temps
ranging through the 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday,
but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also
expected to continue through at least the first few days of November.

The seasonably warm temperatures continue into mid-late week as
that aforementioned ridge shifts offshore. A complex surface
and upper-air pattern develops mid week, particularly over the
central CONUS, with some potential for a few showers by late
week as these features approach our area. In terms of the
specifics, a strong low pressure system will initially move
from the Rockies into the northern Plains and Midwest early in
the week, while a trailing cold front eventually tries to
advance toward the area in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. As
mentioned by my previous forecaster, there remains lots of
different solutions with respect to the track, strength, and
timing of this system. The probability of widespread rainfall
(and beneficial amounts) seems to generally be decreasing and
most of the ensembles show a relative minima in rainfall over
our area. However, this still could change and we continue to
advertise a general 40-50% PoP from Thursday morning into
Friday. Above average temperatures likely continue through the
end of next week, with no potential freezes in the forecast as
the more substantial cold air remains in the northern half of
Canada for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail across the region this evening and will
continue through the 00z TAF period. SCT/BKN high level clouds
continue to stream into the region overnight. Light NE winds
overnight become ENE 5-10 kt on Sunday.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through at
least Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week,
but confidence remains low.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Winds gradually diminish through this evening as high pressure
  builds across the region.

- Seas remain elevated but below SCA levels through the first
  half of the upcoming week.

High pressure (~1034 mb) centered over the eastern Great Lakes
continues to ridge into the lower Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds
will continue to diminish through this evening as the high settles
over the area tonight. Waves on the Chesapeake Bay remain ~2-3 ft,
while seas have dropped to 3-4 ft north and 4-5 ft south of Cape
Charles. The remaining SCA south of Cape Charles is still on track
to expire early this evening.

Dry and relatively benign boating conditions will prevail through
midweek, though light onshore flow (E-NE 5-10 kt, veering E-SE later
Monday and Tuesday) will maintain 2-4 ft seas on the ocean and 1-2
ft waves on the Bay tonight through Tuesday. By Wednesday,
developing low pressure looks to track north along the Gulf Stream
and offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast through late week. This could
bring welcome rain to the region Thursday and Friday, along with
building seas and an extended period of SCA conditions for the
coastal waters and lower Bay from Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM