Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

552
FXUS61 KAKQ 201021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
521 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence continues to slightly increase with respect to the
development of coastal low pressure Sunday into Monday. However,
confidence  continues to remain low with regard to sensible weather
impacts, including the potential for precipitation to end as snow or
a rain/snow mix Sunday night into early Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dense Fog has developed and will persist through the morning
causing reduced visibilities. A cold front then crosses the
region this afternoon and settles into the Carolinas Saturday as
a wave of low pressure tracks along the boundary.

2) Stronger coastal low pressure likely impacts the region Sunday
into early Monday but sensible weather details remain uncertain

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 356 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Fog is expected to develop through the morning causing reduced
visibilities. A cold front then crosses the region this afternoon
and settles into the Carolinas Saturday as a wave of low pressure
tracks along the boundary.

Early morning weather analysis shows primarily zonal flow aloft
across the Mid-Atlantic region and an upper level low across the
Midwest. At the surface high pressure remains just off the New
England coast helping to keep the stationary boundary south of the
area and across central NC. Temperatures across the area are
remaining in the middle to upper 40s across the area. Recent
observations are showing dense fog developing causing reduced
visibilities of less than a quarter of a mile across piedmont
and stretching towards the coastal waters and down across NE NC.
Therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued. The far
western Piedmont counties along the route 15 corridor are
remaining just above criteria but visibilities are remaining
between 1 to 2 miles and an SPS remains in effect.

Through the rest of the morning the stationary front will begin to
lift north as the high moves further off the New England coast. the
fog/drizzle will continue as the warmer air will move over the
shallow cool air. By the mid to late morning the cold front will
continue to move into the area. Given there is enough moisture
across the area rain showers are likely. Additional of .25-.5" N
and 0.1" or less S are expected. Will also note that some CAMS have
hinted on possible thunderstorms across the far S across portions of
SE VA/NE NC. Forecast highs for today will range from the lower/mid
70s for SE VA/NE NC, mid/upper 60s for central VA, and 50s for the
Eastern Shore, but these values will be lower if the low clouds take
longer to scour out.

By tonight, drier air arrives and lows will drop into the middle 40s
S and upper 30s to low 40s N. Additional showers are progged for
Saturday as a low pressure system tracks along a stationary
boundary. Clouds through the day will thicken and rain chances
increase with QPF totals less than .1" across SE VA and NE NC. High
temperatures will still be mild with highs in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Stronger coastal low pressure likely impacts the region Sunday
into early Monday but sensible weather details remain uncertain.

Model guidance for the system Sunday has come into slightly better
agreement on a vigorous upper trough and strengthening coastal low
pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The confidence on the low
pressure system forming remains high but there continues to remain
some uncertainty on exact weather impacts. The 00z ECMWF and CMC
favors the system as rain and ending with snow across central VA to
the Eastern Shore as colder air get wrapped around. In addition, the
probabilities have increased for 3" of snow with both the CMC and
ECMWF showing 50-60% across the Eastern Shore and 40 to 50% across
the Northern Neck. Snow accumulation is possible on elevated and
grassy surfaces, especially across the Eastern Shore and Northern
Neck. Timing for this system has not changed much and is expected
Sunday night and ending during the day on Monday. Will also note,
rain and snow, gusty winds are possible, especially along the coast.

Looking past this storms a blast of colder air will move back into
the area keeping temperatures below average through the first half
of the week. Then by the end of next week temperature s look to
moderate ahead of an additional cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 520 AM EST Friday...

Dense fog has developed across VA and NC early this morning
leading to IFR and LIFR conditions. The worse of the conditions
are located across RIC and PHF. ECG and ORF conditions will
potentially worsen right at day break when the heaviest fog is
expected. Across SBY IFR conditions prevail as low level clouds
move back into the area. These degraded flight conditions are
expected to persist through the 12z taf period. Later this
morning a line of showers is expected to move north of RIC and
mainly impact SBY bringing additional flight restrictions. A
tempo has been added to SBY between 13 to 17z for these
showers. In addition, LLWS is possible as a LLJ moves over the
area and it is expected to persist through much of the day. In
good news the cold front will pass through the area his
afternoon helping to improve flight conditions and will shift
the wind out of the west.

Outlook: The cold front lingers S of the area Saturday, with
rain chances lingering across southern VA and NE NC (mainly at
ORF, PHF, and ECG). Stronger low pressure develops off the coast
Sunday into Monday and this has the potential to bring another
period of rain, gusty winds, and flight restrictions to the
region Sunday into early Monday. Precipitation could end as a
rain/snow mix or all snow at SBY and RIC. Drier air and high
pressure will bring a return to VFR conditions later Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded to include
  the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers.

- A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the coastal
  waters north of Cape Charles Light due to elevated seas to 5
  feet.

- A stronger system impacts the waters Sunday into early next
  week. Gale conditions are possible across the coastal waters
  and potentially the Chesapeake Bay.

Early this morning, a backdoor cold front remains stalled just
south of the waters. Winds are currently E to NE around 5 to 10
knots. Seas are averaging ~4 to 5 feet over the northern waters
and 3 to 4 feet south. Marine fog has temporarily improved
compared to earlier, but expect visibilities to diminish again
from south to north this morning as the front gradually moves
back to the north. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued
for the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers until 10 AM as
visbilities have started to diminish. A Marine Dense Fog
Advisory also continues until 10 AM for the coastal waters south
of Cape Charles Light and the Currituck Sound. Will monitor
visibilities for a potential expansion of the advisory.
Otherwise, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the
coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light due to 5 foot sea
potential (especially out 20 nm) this morning into this evening.
The front is forecast to lift back northward later today with
sub-advisory winds becoming S and SW ahead of the trailing cold
front then becoming westerly tonight into early Saturday.

A stronger system develops near the coast Sunday and moves out
to sea on Monday. There still remains significant disagreement
in regards to low strength and track, with the GFS depicting a
strong (~980 mb) low closer to the coast while the ECMWF and
Canadian keep the low farther offshore. Regardless of specific
model details, potential for Gale conditions continues to
increase with local wind probabilities showing 50-80% probs of
34 kt gusts in the coastal waters and 30-50% in the Chesapeake
Bay. Gale Watches will likely be needed later today or tonight
if models begin to converge toward the stronger solution.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-510>525.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>638-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AJB