Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

734
FXUS61 KAKQ 111129
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
729 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added a Heat Advisory for the Albemarle Sound counties of
interior NE NC. Otherwise, forecast thinking remains fairly
similar.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity persists today across the south, along
with isolated to scattered showers and storms area-wide late in
the day and into tonight.



2) An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of the week.
However, uncertainty remains high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity persists today across the
south, along with isolated to scattered showers and storms
area-wide late in the day and into tonight.

Early morning WX analysis indicates a W-NW flow aloft with the
Bermuda high now getting shunted farther south to the Gulf coast
and Bahamas. The latest radar indicates a decaying MCS affecting
the northern 1/2 of the area, with a series of trailing systems
upstream over OH/WV and another farther NW IA/IL.

With the airmass overturned from yesterday`s widespread convection
across VA/MD, today`s SVR potential is highly uncertain. Debris
clouds are likely to persist across at least the northern 1/2
of the CWA through late morning/early aftn which will limit or
at least delay instability. The CAMs, which generally did poorly
yesterday show varying solutions for this aftn/evening- the 06Z
RRFS has backed off with an organized line of storms through
the CWA from late aftn into the early evening, now suggesting
the main event could be this evening/tonight (which matches
closer to the next shortwave aloft). SPC has most of the area
in a Marginal SVR risk, primarily for damaging wind gusts, as
shear is decent for August (25-30 kt) with a Slight Risk just
making it into our far NW. The SPC discussion does note the high
uncertainty given the current MCS and how this might affect
aftn conditions. In addition, a Marginal ERO is in effect for
most of the region (with a Slight nudging into the far NW). The
sfc winds are a bit more from the W-SW today, and given this,
decided to hoist a small Heat Advisory for the interior NE NC
zones along the Albemarle sound where sfc dew pts should be
several degrees higher, along with highs into the mid 90s,
leading to heat indices of 105+ for a few hrs. Elsewhere, highs
will generally be in the lower 90s (upper 80s/around 90F far N
with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s).


KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled pattern continues through the
remainder of the week, trending to a cooler and somewhat drier
start to the weekend. However, uncertainty remains high.

WNW flow aloft continues Wed through the remainder of the week
as a ridge aloft is expected to continue through late in the
week as an upper level ridge builds across the central CONUS,
and eventually shifts E-SE across the deep south. Meanwhile, a
trough lingers across New England and eastern Canada. Expect an
active pattern with the daily potential for isolated to
scattered storms each afternoon/evening.

SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms
across southern portions of the FA Wed. However, confidence
continues to remain low given uncertainty in aforementioned MCS
timing and impacts. For now, have largely kept NBM PoPs
(30-35% SW to 15-25% NE) to account for the potential for
isolated to scattered storms. Beyond Wed, the pattern remains
similar with mostly only a slight chance (15-25%) for a few
isolated showers or storms on Thu (and only general thunder
risk) with a better chance on Fri (30-40% PoPs). Outside of
convection, temps remain near the warm side of normal with highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu and upper 80s to
lower 90s Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 715 AM EDT Tuesday...

Primarily VFR conditions prevail early this morning aside from
some local pockets of fog and low stratus over interior SE VA,
though none of this has affected any of the main terminals.
Mid/high clouds from decaying MCS prevail for the northern 1/2
of the region through late morning, with perhaps a SHRA at SBY
through -15Z (have a PROB30), but remaining dry elsewhere.
Otherwise, winds will be mainly from the W today at less than
10 kt (ORF could see a shift to the NE for a few hrs this aftn).
Storm coverage later today is highly uncertain, but still have
mainly 20-30% later in the aftn/early evening, then rising
slightly into tonight, so have included PROB30 groups for TSRA
at RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG between 22Z through 02Z (though this may need
to be trended even later). Showers/storms generally diminishing
after 06Z.


Outlook: Expect predominate VFR conditions prevail through Thu.
However, daily low-end chances for isolated to scattered
showers and storms exists each day. Along with this comes a
chance for early morning stratus/ground fog each late
night/early morning Wednesday through Friday AM.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through most of
  the week.

Morning weather analysis shows high pressure continuing to sit well
offshore, with a weak surface low over New England. The pressure
gradient from these two systems continues to remain weak but just
strong enough to keep the winds out of the W around 10kt with some
gusts around 15 kt. Seas this morning are around 1-2ft across the bay
and 2-3ft across the ocean. Through the morning and into the
afternoon of today, winds will shift out of the WSW and remain
around 10 kt with gusts nearing 15kt. Seas will remain quite benign
and not change much through the day and stay around 1-2ft in the bay
and 2-3 ft across the ocean. In terms of storm chances for this
afternoon, models continue to back off on scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. This is due to the possibility of cloud
cover lingering from this mornings ongoing convection to the west.
However, if the clouds are able to clear and daytime heating is able
to take place the threat for a strong to severe storm cannot be
ruled out. The main threat with these storms would be strong winds
greater than 34kt. Greater convective coverage is possible on
Wednesday but with low confidence on the details. Otherwise, benign
marine conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the week.

By the end of the week a  cold front will gradually approach and
shift winds to the N-NE by late Friday into next weekend. Models are
generally keeping the winds rather light, but if the front actually
pushes south of the waters, this would potentially bring SCAs, but
uncertainty is high at this range.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ015>017-031-032.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB
AVIATION...LKB/RMM
MARINE...HET/RHR