Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

449
FXUS61 KAKQ 021928
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
328 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures to start rebounding tomorrow with above normal
temperatures by Friday. Next chances for rain not until later Sunday
afternoon or early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures to start rebounding tomorrow with above
normal temperatures by Friday. Next chances for rain not until later
Sunday afternoon or early next week.

Unseasonably strong high pressure over the Great Lakes (99th
percentile for this of year compared to ERA5) has led to a day more
like early-mid April versus early June. Gusty winds NE above 30 mph
at the coast combined with the cold trough aloft have allow temps to
only rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s in most areas (lower-mid
60s near the coast). Winds should rapidly diminish this evening
yielding a cool night across the region. NBM forecast guidance
suggests lower 50s inland and upper 50s at the coast tonight, but
given the current dew points in the upper 30s and lower 40s combined
with expected decreased winds, would not be shocked to see many
inland locations outside of the urban centers dropping into the
upper or even mid 40s. In fact, MAV guidance for LKU shows a low of
46.

The trough axis will shift offshore later tonight and tomorrow as
the overall Rex Block breaks down. This will allow the ridge
currently over the Upper Midwest to gradually move southeast and
center itself over the Southeastern States by Friday. These building
heights will allow the warmup to commence starting tomorrow with
inland locations in the upper 70s/lower 80s (cooler near the coast
due to continued NE wind. By Friday, expect upper 80s and perhaps
some lower 90s with more typical June weather for the weekend with
widespread lower 90s. Really, the next chance for rain is not until
later Sunday or Monday as the ridge breaks down somewhat allowing a
a frontal boundary to pass through the area. Models are not
enthusiastic about rainfall with this boundary, with the multi-model
ensemble only showing about a 25% probability of a quarter of an
inch or more of rainfall. Will maintain chances for showers and
storms starting Sunday afternoon/night and continue through early
next week. Large interquartile range of temperatures (mid 70s-lower
90s), and thus large uncertainty next Monday and Tuesday owing to
the uncertain position of the front, and any potential cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 pM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours at all sites.
Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will keep gusty NE
winds at all sites through this afternoon. However, winds will
rapidly diminish early tonight. Continued N-NE winds on
Wednesday, but expected to be much weaker than today.

Outlook...High pressure remains into control through Saturday Night
leading to VFR conditions. Next chance for any showers/storms not
until later Sunday or Sunday Night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this evening
  for the lower Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and lower James
  River. The SCA for the Currituck Sound is in effect through
  late this evening.

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore
  coastal waters south of Cape Charles into Wednesday. The SCA
  for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles are in effect
  through this evening.

1022mb high pressure is centered over the northern Mid-
Atlantic coast this afternoon, with low pressure well E of the
NC Outer Banks. The pressure gradient remains strong S of Cape
Henry (including the lower Ches. Bay and lower James) with a NE
wind of 15- 25kt with gusts to ~30kt. Farther N, the pressure
gradient has relaxed and the wind has diminished. Seas range
from 4-5ft N, to 7- 9ft S, with 8-10ft in the offshore waters
off VA Beach and the northern Outer Banks.

High pressure will continue to build S tonight with the
pressure gradient steadily relaxing. Therefore, a NE wind will
diminish to 5- 10kt (and shift to NW late), and SCAs for the
lower Ches. Bay/lower James and the northern coastal waters
should be able to end this evening, with the Currituck Sound
later this evening. Seas will be slow to subside for the
southern coastal waters where SCAs remain in effect through
Wednesday. High pressure remains in vicinity of the coast
Wednesday and Thursday, and then settles offshore late week into
the weekend. The wind will be light and more variable
Wednesday/Thursday, with increasing, but sub-SCA SSW flow by
later Friday into the weekend.

The rip current risk remain elevated Wednesday, and potentially
Thursday as well due to lingering swell, with at least a
Moderate Rip Current Risk for the northern beaches and a High
Rip Current Risk for the southern beaches. Additionally, a High
Surf Advisory remains in effect through this evening for the
Currituck Outer Banks.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     634-639-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...AJZ/KMC