Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

497
FXUS61 KAKQ 122339
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
739 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussions.

No significant forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly dry through midday Thursday. Isolated-scattered
showers/storms return later Thursday into Thursday night, with the
highest chances expected Friday afternoon-Friday night with a cold
front.

2) Mainly dry and slightly less humid Saturday, seasonable Sunday
with a few afternoon showers/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry through midday Thursday. Isolated-
scattered showers/storms return later Thursday into Thursday night,
with the highest chances expected Friday afternoon-Friday night with
a cold front.

Current composite radar looks very similar to the past few days,
with an MCS to our NW and mostly clear across our area. Satellite
imagery is showing low-level cu developing across most of the area,
but only one shower has managed to develop in NE NC as the best
instability is found near the coast working in conjunction with the
typical summertime sea-breeze boundaries in that area. Temperatures
are currently in the low-mid 80s and dew points are in the 60s to
lower 70s, making for a more comfortable August afternoon. Another
fast moving shortwave dives E-SE in the flow aloft tonight, and
could set off a few showers, mainly across the far north and eastern
shore. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 70s with a few pockets of
upper 60s possible in the interior rural areas.

The region will remain in a similar pattern through the end of the
week, with NW flow aloft continuing. Light winds will lift to the
south tonight and more humid conditions will return, with dew points
of the upper 60s to lower 70s bringing the mugginess back to the
region. Most areas will see the heat index climb into the upper 90s
to lower 100s as temperatures reach the lower to mid 90s. The
highest heat indices will be in NE NC, but they will likely fall
just short of Heat Advisory criteria, so have decided not to issue
any heat products for that area at this time. Still not a lot of
focus for storms Thursday, so PoPs will remain capped at 20-40%. SVR
Weather is not anticipated as shear remains rather weak so any
storms should be disorganized. On Friday, the that will have been
lingering to our north for a majority of the week is forecast to
finally drop south into the area as the flow aloft further amplifies
in response to a strong ridge aloft across the lower MS Valley and a
sharper trough over New England and eastern Canada. This will likely
be our best chance of rain for the remainder of the week.
Instability ahead of the front may be limited on Friday, especially
for NE portions of the FA, so even with decent shear, the SVR threat
is uncertain/low and at this time, and SPC does not even have the
region in a Marginal SVR risk. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible given highs PWATs but storms should be moving so unless the
front stalls, a widespread heavy rain event is currently not
expected (but with localized flooding possible, mainly in urban or
flood-prone areas).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry and slightly less humid Saturday,
seasonable Sunday with a few afternoon showers/storms.

Saturday looks mostly dry and fairly pleasant with highs in the 80s
in the wake of the cold front, though more clouds and an isolated
showers/storm will be possible in NE NC. The upper ridge starts to
build back into the region Saturday night/Sunday, and some of the
models even depict showers Saturday night. Scattered shower and
isolated thunderstorms will return to the forecast on Sunday, along
with highs back around 90F for most of the area. The expansive upper
ridge across the southern U.S. will finally start to break down and
flow aloft will become more zonal. The current forecast currently
has the normal diurnally driven afternoon/evening isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. A mix of mid
and high clouds are noted on satellite imagery and surface
observations. Winds are 5-10 kt with variable direction as local
sea/bay/river breeze circulations weaken this evening. W or NW
winds 5-10 kt expected Thursday. Forecast soundings show limited
moisture at the top of the mixed layer but there may enough for
FEW or SCT CU late morning through the afternoon. Isolated
showers or storms are possible late in the period but low
confidence in coverage and timing preclude specific mention.

Note: An ongoing communication issue at the ORF ASOS has no
expected timeframe for resolution, so have included AMD NOT
SKED at ORF.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered convection is possible Thursday
evening. Greater shower and storm coverage is expected Friday
with quieter conditions returning on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the week.

- Elevated southerly to southwesterly winds are possible late Sunday
into Sunday night.

Afternoon surface analysis depicted a stationary front near the
VA/NC border. This front is expected to linger over/near the local
waters through Thu night before moving south as a cold front Fri. As
such, sub-SCA winds are expected to continue with winds shifting
from N/NE 5-10 kt during the day to SW at night. A minor increase in
SW winds to 10-15 kt is possible tonight. Winds remain generally NE
Fri into Sat before becoming SE Sat night. The next surge arrives
late Sun into Sun night as S/SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt across the local waters ahead of the next cold
front. SCAs are possible with this surge. Weaker winds are once
again expected behind the cold front early next week as high
pressure builds in.

The rip current risk through Saturday is low at all beaches. Will
note with with winds shifting out of the NE late Fri and into the
weekend, the rip current risk may increase to moderate (if seas
build higher than current model guidance shows).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...RMM