Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

024
FXUS61 KAKQ 171351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
951 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler, drier weather persists today, with gradually moderating
temperatures and continued drying conditions Friday into the
weekend. Rain chances increase with approaching cold front early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry with plentiful sunshine today.

- High clouds increase later this evening.

High pressure remains in control today, with an upper ridge
translating eastward. Light and variable winds this morning
become southerly later this afternoon into tonight. Temperatures
as of 930 AM are in the upper 40s across the NW and Maryland
Eastern Shore and lower to middle 50s across southern VA and
northeastern NC. Highs today will range from the upper 60s to
around 70 inland (low- mid 60s closer to the coast) with
plentiful sunshine. Higher clouds increase later this evening
into tonight. Not quite as cool tonight with increasing high
clouds and a light southerly wind, lows will generally range
from the low-mid 40s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry with warming temperatures Friday and Saturday.

High pressure centers offshore Friday through Saturday and upper an
upper ridge builds over the region, leading to dry conditions and
warming temperatures. Friday will feature mostly sunny skies with a
S to SSW wind becoming breezy during the afternoon (gusts of 20-25+
mph). For most of the area, temperatures will be slightly above with
highs around 80 expected. Closer to the immediate coast and along
the Eastern Shore, a slight easterly component in the wind will keep
temperatures cooler, generally 60s to lower 70s. Remaining mild into
Friday night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s (mid 50s across
portions of the MD Eastern Shore).

The upper ridge axis slides over the US East Coast on Saturday.
Breezy SW winds continue the warming trend, owing to the tightening
pressure gradient between the Bermuda Ridge offshore and a cold
front well to the W. This continues the warming trend, with highs
Saturday in the mid to upper 80s W of the bay and the upper 70s to
low 80s on the Eastern Shore. Another mild night is anticipated for
Saturday night with increasing cloud cover and continued SW flow,
lows will range from the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- The next cold front approaches the area Monday into Tuesday with
chances for showers and few storms returning to the region.

- Dry weather with near to above average temperatures is then
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

Sunday will feature slightly cooler conditions compared to Saturday
due to an increase in cloud cover. In addition, a backdoor cold
front may try to drop into far NE portions of the area later in the
day, bringing falling temperatures. For now, have highs ranging from
the low to mid 80s inland and 70s across our NE areas. An upper low
dropping out of central Canada looks to nudge a backdoor cold front
closer toward the FA Monday, but there is still no clear signal for
increasing rain chances until the trailing system approaches later.
However, the developing E-SE flow would likely cool us down a bit as
we head into early next week (especially NE). For now, the forecast
calls for a temp gradient of upper 60s to low 80s from NE to SW on
Monday. The next shot at precip looks to be early next week with the
previously referenced cold frontal passage later Monday and Tuesday.
Global models remain fairly moisture starved with this system
locally, with both the the GEFS and EPS showing ~0.10" of QPF at
best. PoPs are only in the ~20-40% range (highest N) during the
Monday night to early Tuesday timeframe. Slightly cooler during the
Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, but still remaining near to above
average with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 (upper 60s to mid 70s
Eastern Shore). Remaining mostly dry through much of the remainder
of the forecast period, with the next chances of rain likely not
until late in the week or the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 540 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the 12z/17
TAF period, with clear skies and rain-free conditions expected.
Light and variable or calm winds this morning become N or NE
(light) into this afternoon, becoming southerly later this
afternoon into this evening. FEW to SCT higher clouds build in
from the west late in the forecast period.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions continue through the end of the
week. Remaining mostly dry through the weekend. The next shot
at widespread precipitation looks to be early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 630 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase on Friday and continue into Saturday
  ahead of the next cold front.

Broad 1020mb high pressure is building into the area from the
Midwest as low pressure departs northeast from New England. Winds
across the local waters are N or NE with waves and seas running 1-3
ft.

SCA headlines have been cancelled. High pressure will dominate
the local conditions today and tonight before moving offshore
on Friday. Southerly flow is forecast to increase Friday
afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Local wind probs indicate
high confidence for SCA conditions for the Ches Bay and northern
coastal waters during this period with winds 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt (30 kt gusts possible across the northern coastal
waters). Confidence in seeing sustained SCA conditions is lower
for the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound where the
pressure gradient will not be as strong. Confidence is moderate
for the rivers seeing SCA conditions Friday into Saturday. Waves
in the bay will build to 2-3 ft along with the winds by late
Friday afternoon. Seas will also increase during this period
with 2-4 ft expected south of Cape Charles Light and 4-6 ft to
the north. The cold front will struggle to make inroads toward
the local waters late Saturday into Sunday as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for Sunday
into early next week.

Waves and seas were 2-3 ft and 2-4 ft respectively this afternoon.
Waves briefly build to 3-4 ft across the middle and upper Bay
tonight. Seas build to 4-5 ft (potentially up to 6 ft) Fri night
into Sat.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJB/HET
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR