Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

378
FXUS61 KAKQ 191028
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
628 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorms are expected again today as hot and humid
conditions continue, bringing the possibility of strong winds and
locally heavy rain.

2) Slightly more seasonable temperatures return starting Monday, but
humid conditions will persist until a cold front pushes through
later Wednesday. Daily storm chances continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms are expected again today as hot and
humid conditions continue, bringing the possibility of strong winds
and locally heavy rain.

A few lingering light showers are scattered about early this
morning. Some patchy ground fog may develop, but should
dissipate after sunrise. Latest surface analysis shows a low
pressure system in northern Maine with troughing extending down
into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated cold front is expected to
drop south out of the Ohio River Valley this morning and into
the northern half of Virginia. First thing of note with this
front will be the wind shift as winds become northwesterly
behind it. This will allow for Canadian wildfire smoke to
spill in once again, especially north of I-64. The good news is
that current guidance does not have the surface concentration
being anything close to what it was on Friday, but some haziness
will likely be noticeable for northern locations after mid-day.

South of the front will be where the hottest and most humid
conditions will be felt today (though everyone will still be
hot and muggy). Heat indices across NE NC will top out around
100 degrees, with counties on the northern side of the Albemarle
Sound potentially reaching 105 for a couple of hours. Due to
the brief duration and small coverage area of marginal 105 deg
heat indices, opted to not issue a Heat Advisory for today. Will
monitor for any necessary updates through the morning.
Regardless, take precautions if you and your pets must be
outdoors as it will still be hot.

The front will stall out across our local area this afternoon,
creating another round of thunderstorms. Hi-res guidance continues
to have trouble pinpointing the exact coverage of these storms, but
generally expect the better chances to be along and south of I-64
starting early to mid afternoon. There isn`t as much shear as we had
yesterday, but with MLcape values of 2000-2500 J/kg across the
southeastern portion of the CWA, any thunderstorm that does develop
will be capable of producing strong, damaging winds once again. SPC
has a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather from
Farmville to Williamsburg and south. Additionally, there is a threat
of heavy downpours and training storms creating localized flash
flooding into this evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Slightly more seasonable temperatures return
starting Monday, but humid conditions will persist until a cold
front pushes through later Wednesday. Daily storm chances
continue.

The aforementioned cold front will linger across the southern
portion of our area into Monday keeping storm chances around. That
combined with a passing shortwave will allow storms to potentially
become severe with strong wind gusts. SPC has a Marginal Risk for US-
460 and south on Monday. Models show the best coverage of storms
will be focused more towards the VA/NC border and surrounding areas.
With the front sitting over us and troughiness persisting across the
region, temperatures will be slightly more seasonable starting
Monday, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s through
Wednesday. Don`t get too excited for the "cool down" because
dewpoints will sadly remain in the mid to upper 70s, making it feel
muggy outside regardless.

Troughing digs a bit deeper Tuesday and especially into Wednesday as
low pressure moves across southeastern Canada. This will send a
potent cold front down our way on Wednesday. Expecting storms to
develop again on Tuesday ahead of the front as shortwaves pass
through the region. Due to the nature of the hot/humid
environment, will still have to monitor the any severe
potential. Wednesday has been highlighted for severe weather by
SPC for several days now. The timing of the front will play a
crucial roll in this. GFS is slightly earlier than it was
yesterday, pushing it through during the mid-afternoon, while
the ECMWF is still a bit later in the day. Regardless,
Wednesday will be a day to watch severe-wise. Behind the front
Wednesday night into Thursday, dewpoints will fall into the low
to mid 60s, making it feel noticeably less oppressive outside.
Low temperatures Thursday morning may even be in the mid to
upper 60s. Highs for the remainder of the work week look to be
in the lower 80s, enjoyable for late July.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Sunday...

SCT-BKN250 skies this morning with SW winds generally AOB 10kt.
A front will move through the area today turning winds
gradually from NW in the morning to NE/E by the afternoon.
Another round of TSRA is expected in the afternoon/evening, but
confidence on storm coverage remains lower. Best chances will
likely be across southern terminals, including PHF/ORF/ECG where
PROB30s are in the TAFs after 20Z, but definitely can`t rule
out storms at RIC as well. Storms will be capable of producing
VIS restrictions and gusty, erratic winds. Additionally,
wildfire smoke is forecast to move back into the region
throughout the day. Northern locations and SBY could see
observed HZ again after ~14Z, but VIS reductions should remain
MVFR or higher per the current guidance.

Outlook: Rain chances continue into next week, with
intermittent flight restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

- Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger early this
  morning, but winds will decrease later this morning.

- A weak front pushes south across the area today.

- Strong storms are likely this afternoon and evening ahead of
  the front with locally hazardous winds/waves/seas.

This morning winds were generally SW at 15 to 20 kt with a few
higher gusts, but winds were generally on a downward trend.
Small Craft Advisories will be allowed to expire at 7 am this
morning. The cold front was located over Pennsylvania early
this morning and will push south across the area through the
day.

Winds will decrease some through the afternoon ahead of the
front. Winds along and behind the front will remain 15 kt or
less. The front should reach the upper Bay and MD coastal waters
later this morning, but not reach the Capes until mid to late afternoon.

Showers and storms are likely ahead and along the front today
especially from Chincoteague and Windmill Point south across
the lower Bay, VA/NC coastal waters and sounds. Strong winds
and locally higher waves/seas can be expected to accompany the
stronger convective cells along with frequent lightning and
very heavy rainfall.

Winds become easterly Monday then south on Tuesday as the front
washes out and lifts north. Southerly winds increase Tuesday
into Wednesday with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday. Another cold front may
push into the area late Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>634-639-654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/JKP
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...RHR/JAO