Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

762
FXUS61 KAKQ 132330
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
730 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for the 00z/14 TAF period.

SCAs have been issued for all local waters expect the northern
coastal waters starting during the day on Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Continued unsettled and humid this afternoon, with scattered
afternoon showers/storms possible across SE VA and NE NC.
Mainly dry with skies clearing tonight.

2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower
humidity Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures warm back above normal late
in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance
for rain Fri-Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued unsettled and humid this afternoon.
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms early, then scattered
afternoon showers/storms possible. Mainly dry with skies
clearing tonight.

A warm front that lifted through the area last night and this
morning is currently situated across the northern Mid-Atlantic. Most
of the shower activity has shifted to SE VA and NE NC, with
scattered showers and a few isolated lightning strikes. There has
been enough steering flow to push these showers along rather than
letting them linger over one area for too long, so there have been
no localized flooding issues so far today. Satellite imagery shows
some clearing across the SE portion of the forecast area, which has
helped with the aforementioned shower development. The remained of
the forecast area aside from the far NW piedmont is still entrenched
in thick cloud cover that has kept temperatures capped around 80
degrees. However, these clouds are finally starting to scatter out,
which will allow temperatures to reach the upper 80s for most of the
area. With dew points in the lower to mid 70s and generally light
surface winds, it feels quite muggy outside (especially for almost
mid-September). Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue to develop across the SE portion of the area, with some hi-
res guidance suggesting a few isolated showers could develop across
the piedmont later this afternoon and evening. A cold front
currently draped well to our northwest will gradually slide
southeastward tonight and tomorrow. Ahead of this front, SW-W flow
will prevail and dew points and temperatures will remain elevated
for one last night. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Precipitation and cloud cover will start
to clear out overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and
significantly lower humidity Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures warm
back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into
the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat.

The upper level flow becomes NW Monday as a strong upper level
trough dives SE from the Great Lakes and then lifts offshore on
Monday night. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is forecast to slowly
expand NE from the lower MS Valley. A stronger cold front will drop
across the forecast on Monday and bring significantly lower dew
points that are more typical of September. With a strong upper low
dipping down across the area, increasing cloud cover is expected for
a few hours on Monday with slight chance PoPs lingering through the
afternoon across the southern areas before the much drier air surges
in from the NNW during the afternoon/evening.

As high pressure builds in behind the front Monday night, a pleasant
night is expected Monday night/Tue AM with lows mostly in the mid-
upper 50s to lower 60s (low-mid 50s are likely in many locations to
the NW of Richmond). The upper level ridge becomes nearly stationary
across the TN Valley Tue-Wed as a weak upper level trough develops
off the SE Coast. This pattern will allow strong surface high
pressure (~1030 mb), to set up from off the New England coast SW
into the Carolina coastal plain through midweek. Highs will stay
mostly in the low-mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower
60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). The models now mostly
have the upper tough to our S/SE potentially amplifying late in the
week which would retrograde the ridge back towards the lower MS
Valley. Overall, a decent amount of uncertainty as to how this
evolves, but the forecast will continue to show temperatures
climbing back to above normal for mid-September, with some low-end
rain chances Fri-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/14 TAF period. MVFR
CIGs have lifted across all terminals this evening, leaving only FEW-
SCT high clouds. Showers are mostly out of the area, although there
are a few remaining. A few showers could impact mainly ECG tomorrow
afternoon, though confidence is too low to include any mention of
this for now. Winds will become light and variable overnight, then
become northerly and increase in the wake of a cold front that is
forecast to move across the area tomorrow, with gusts of 15-20 kts
expected tomorrow.

Outlook: Staying dry Tues-Wed with lighter winds except locally
breezy SE VA and NE NC along the coast. Winds will diminish Wed
night, with minimal rain chances through the end of the week.
&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Low-end Small Craft Advisories are now in effect for the
Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and nearshore Atlantic coastal
waters south of Parramore Island for increasing NE winds behind a
front Monday through Monday evening.

Early this afternoon, a warm front was analyzed well north of the
local area, with a trailing cold front extending from the Eastern
Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys. Winds across the local waters
are generally W-SW ~10 kt. E-SE swell continues to hold seas in the
2-3 ft range, with waves 1 ft.

Winds become W ~5 to 10 kt tonight, turning W-NW and increasing to
10 kt late tonight ahead of the cold frontal passage. The front
drops across the local waters Monday morning through early
afternoon. An initial surge of N winds is expected post-frontal,
with a secondary surge Monday evening into early Tuesday.

Guidance continues to indicate a stronger frontal passage for
Monday, with better post-frontal CAA Monday night. Latest local wind
probabilities have locked in on a period of sustained N-NE 18 kt
winds in the Ches Bay, with probabilities now 80-90% running from
mid to late Monday morning into early Tuesday morning. For nearshore
coastal waters, high-res guidance shows a 30-50% chance of 25 kt
gusts over northern waters, indicating a brief window of 20-25 kt
gusts behind the front. Farther south, 25 kt gust probabilities ramp
up to 50-80% south of Parramore Island from Monday afternoon into
early Tuesday morning.

Prolonged NNE winds looks to build seas to 5-6 ft late Monday
through midweek, mainly over the southern coastal waters. Sub-SCA E-
NE winds, mostly 10kt or less, continue Tuesday through late week,
as high pressure lingers over the New England coast.

A low rip risk for northern beaches tomorrow, with a moderate risk
of rip currents for southern beaches. A Moderate Rip Risk for all
beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ630>632-634-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...AC/MAM