Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

896
FXUS61 KAKQ 240642
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
242 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Precip chances for late tonight and early tomorrow have
increased. No other significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below average temps today and tomorrow with
lingering rain chances across the south through Sat morning.

2) After a drier start to the weak, an unsettled
pattern brings additional shower/storm chances mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Below average temps today and tomorrow with
lingering rain chances across the south through Sat morning.

The free trial of September continues today now that the cold front
from yesterday is well south of the forecast area. Some lingering
moisture north of the front will lead to spotty, light showers
across northeast NC this morning. Showers may linger along the
Albemarle Sound for the rest of the day as well. Otherwise, temps
will be rather cool for late July with highs only around 80. On top
of that, dewpoints will be only around 60 for most of area outside
of the southeast which will add to that early fall feel. Later
tonight and early tomorrow morning, weak low pressure is
expected for form along that cold front then slide back NE. This
would push precip back north into the local area. The 00z suite
of both global models and several CAMs were rather aggressive
with how much rain it brings into the area tonight. Did trend
the PoP forecast that way, but kept the Likely PoPs confined to
the southeast for now. The area will likely mostly dry out again
by Sat afternoon. This round of precip should overall be pretty
light with minimal flood threat. Temperatures on Sat will be
pretty similar to today with highs around 80.


KEY MESSAGE 2...After a drier start to the weak, an unsettled
pattern brings additional shower/storm chances mid week.

Temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s return Sunday and continue
through next week. Sun and Mon look to be mainly dry aside from a
stray shower/storm Mon afternoon. Storm chances return mid week as a
potentially strong UL trough dips in over the east coast with
multiple sfc fronts sliding through the area. Right now the best
chance for widespread storms would be Tues evening, but of course
there`s still plenty of disagreement in the models on timing. With
the strength of trough currently depicted in all of the global
models, there will be the potential for severe weather if the timing
lines up right with the instability.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Friday...

Some spotty, light showers persist across NE NC early this
morning on the north side of a cold front. ECG will likely see
some showers, but with minimal impact. Mainly seeing VFR
conditions at the terminals, but did add a TEMPO to ECG for MVFR
for the rest of the night. MVFR CIGs then cling across the
Albemarle Sound and may impact ECG for the duration of the
period. Lower CIGs then press north late in the period into
tomorrow morning.

Outlook: A low chance of showers across the SE terminals
returns for Saturday, along with potential sub-VFR conditions.
Isolated to widely scattered late day and evening showers/storms
will be possible each day from Sunday through early next week,
with predominate VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EDT Friday...

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail, but with elevated NE winds through
today and possibly the first part of Saturday.

A stalled frontal boundary remains south of the waters early this
morning with ENE winds of 10-15 kt continuing. Seas remain around 4
ft across NE NC waters, with 3-4 ft seas farther north. Waves are 2-
3 ft on the bay. With high pressure remaining centered N of the area
today, along with that stalled frontal boundary just to our south,
NE winds will stay a bit elevated, and a few gusts to 20 kt remain
possible through the day. Local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds
have decreased and are aob 10% everywhere, so will not be issuing
SCAs attm. Seas remain 3-4 ft today (highest south). Seas may touch
5 ft briefly in NE NC, but do not feel it is worth issuing an SCA
for. Waves will be 2-3 ft in the lower Bay and ~2 ft in the lower
James. NE winds diminish to 10 kt tonight. Winds remain NE on
Saturday, though there is a bit of uncertainity with respect to wind
speeds as weak low pressure is progged to track along that stalled
front across NC and offshore during the morning/midday. While wind
speeds most likely stay below SCA criteria, a few of the models show
a brief period of 15-20 kt NE winds across the lower bay and SE
VA/NE NC coastal waters as they are forecasting the sfc low to be a
bit stronger as it moves offshore. This is reflected in our local
wind probs, which show a 3-6 hour period of 20-30% probs for 18 kt
winds between 6 AM-noon on Saturday. Will continue to monitor and
for now have winds close to 15 kt Sat AM in the gridded forecast.
Over the remainder of the weekend, the pressure gradient is forecast
to relax a bit more as high pressure nudges south closer to the
area. Expect sub-SCA conditions and fairly benign conditions into
early next week with 2-3 ft/1-2 ft waves on the Bay.

A Moderate Risk for Rip Currents continues across all local beaches
through today (and the southern beaches on Saturday) from increased
swell and onshore flow. A low rip current risk is forecast for all
beaches on Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI