Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

555
FXUS61 KAKQ 311052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
552 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Watches upgraded to Coastal Flood Warnings for
Sunday morning`s high tide cycle. Extreme Cold Watch upgraded to
a warning in the southeast, converted to Cold Weather Advisory
elsewhere. Minor changes to snowfall total forecast, primarily
lowering totals on the northwest edge.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong winter storm impacts the region later
tonight into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and
drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and major
marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south
and southeastern portions of the area. There will be a very sharp
gradient in total snowfall amounts, southeast of the US-360
corridor.

2) Well below normal temperatures remain through
early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place.
The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night into Sunday
morning. An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for the southeast
and a Cold Weather Advisory for the remainder of the area.

3) Moderate to locally Major coastal flooding is expected with
the high tide cycle Sunday morning for portions of Hampton Roads
and NE NC. Have converted the Coastal Flood Watch to a Warning,
with the worst (major) tidal flooding expected at VA
Beach/Eastern Currituck, with (low-end) moderate flooding
expected at Sewell`s Pt/Kiptopeke.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong winter storm impacts the region later
tonight into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and
drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and major
marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south
and southeastern portions of the area. There will be a very sharp
gradient in total snowfall amounts, southeast of the US-360 corridor.

The forecast is somehow not much clearer since yesterday`s package
despite the storm being practically on our doorstep. The 00z suite
of CAMs have thrown some doubt into the mix by largely showing much
drier conditions and therefore much lower snow amounts. For what
it`s worth, the NAM3k actually came in with no snow for any of our
area. The HRRR was not nearly as extreme, but kept measurable snow
confined to southside Hampton Roads and Northeast North Carolina. It
is true that there is quite a bit of dry air in place, but the
moisture brought in by the sfc low and the SW flow ahead of the
upper low aloft combined with the strong forcing from the upper low
and the FGEN band NW of the sfc low, should be enough to overcome
that. Do not want to completely disregard these solutions, but the
lack of consistency from run to run along with the lack of support
from the pattern do not yield much confidence. On the other hand,
the global models and ensembles have been more or less consistent
for the last several runs and do make sense with the pattern.
Therefore, the forecast leans a lot into those solutions for the
precip timing and QPF. Because of the dry, cold air, the SLR is
significantly higher than the 10:1 that the ensembles use, so the
snow amounts don`t necessarily match. The result was a snowfall
total forecast that isn`t terribly different than the last couple of
packages. The main difference is trimming down totals on the western
and northern edge to account for the tight gradient that is
expected. Still thinking 8-10" (locally to 12") in the far
southeast, 6-8" for the remainder of southside Hampton Roads and
interior NE NC, tapering to 4-6" for the middle and lower peninsulas
down through Southampton and west to Mecklenburg. Snow totals are
expected to quickly taper off northwest from there. By the time you
get to the RIC metro, 0.5-1.5" is forecast. Anywhere NW of there
would be little to no snow. As for timing, not too many changes
there. Still thinking the overrunning moisture will saturate the
column early this morning and bring light snow across the south.
Snow is largely confined to south of US-460 for most of the morning,
then progressing north toward the I-64 corridor during the
afternoon. Snow then focuses in on areas closer to the coast
overnight. Expecting snow to come to an end from W to E before
sunrise Sunday. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advys
remain unchanged.

While confidence in snowfall totals isn`t exceptionally high, one
thing that has remained consistent and has high confidence is the
threat of high winds due to the tight pressure gradient and
projected strength of the low. Breezy to windy conditions are
expected during the day with gusts around 25-30mph inland and 30-
40mph closer to the coast (highest SE). Winds really get going
tonight and into tomorrow morning, though. Winds gusts ramp up to 45
to 60mph close to the coast and 30-45mph inland. Wind headlines are
unchanged- a high wind warning for the coastal zones, as well as
Hampton/Poquoson and Mathews and a Wind Advisory for portions of the
VA Tidewater, interior NE NC, and the lower MD Eastern Shore. This
combination of snow and strong winds will result in the potential
for whiteout conditions. There was some discussion in regards to
blizzard headlines, but ultimately the confidence is still not there
with regard to snow rates/amounts. Instead, we are messaging
whiteout conditions and to avoid travel in the Winter Storm Warning.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Well below normal temperatures remain through
early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place.
The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night into Sunday
morning. An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for the southeast
and a Cold Weather Advisory for the remainder of the area.

Today will be exceptionally cold for the local area, with highs only
in the low to mid 20s for most (possibly staying in the teens NW).
Winds chills will be near zero across the north and 5-10 degrees to
the south. While there may be a few hours during the day Saturday
where wind chills are above criteria, it was decided to keep the
Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the entire day on Saturday due
to the anomalous cold. The coldest wind chills are expected Saturday
night and Sunday morning. Minimum winds chills will be zero to 5
below. Did decide to go ahead and upgrade the Extreme Cold Watch to
a Warning for Hampton Roads (including portions of middle peninsula
and Southampton/Surry Counties) and NE NC where the criteria for a
warning is zero. It does not look like the rest of the area will
quite reach their criteria (5 below) for more than perhaps an hour
or so, so went with an extension of the Cold Weather Advisory for
these zones.



KEY MESSAGE 3...Moderate to locally major tidal flooding is
expected with the high tide cycle early Sunday, primarily
across southside Hampton Roads and the Atlantic coast of NE NC.
Deepening sfc low pressure will be pushing farther off the NC
and VA coast early Sunday, with strong N winds becoming NNW.
This wind direction as the high tide cycle approaches favors the
greatest impacts on the Atlantic facing portions of VA Beach
and Currituck NC and these areas (as well as Northampton VA for
Kiptopeke). Have converted the Coastal Flood Watch to a Warning,
with the worst (major) tidal flooding expected at VA
Beach/Eastern Currituck, with (low-end) moderate flooding
expected at Sewell`s Pt/Kiptopeke. Minor flooding is likely into
the lower James and up the Atlantic coast to Ocean City, MD.
Have issued Coastal Flood Advisories for this. Did not include
James City/Surry in the Coastal Flood Advisory given that the
high tide here is later Sun after winds become more NNW and have
Jamestown/Yorktown cresting a few tenths below minor flood
stage. Well up the Bay, water levels will be much lower due to
the strong N winds.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 552 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through later this
morning ahead of the approaching winter storm system. Flight
conditions will start to deteriorate starting at ECG as the low
pressure starts to lift northwards. Degraded flight conditions will
expand northwards through mid-morning, with most terminals expected
to see some VIS and CIG reduction by as early as 15z. TEMPOs are in
place at the southern terminals to account for the arrival of -SN
ahead of the heavier snowfall expected. Meanwhile, there is notably
less confidence in the TAFs for RIC and SBY as guidance has backed
off on snowfall for these areas. Have included PROB30 for both
terminals for later today, though subsequent TAF updates may include
TEMPOs pending the evolution of the system. At this time, periods
with +SN and low VSBYs are most likely, along with elevated to
strong northerly winds, at ORF and ECG tonight through Sunday
morning. Can expect gusts of 40 kt+ closer to the coast with inland
terminals likely to see gusts to around 30 kt. Have included BLSN at
PHF, ORF, and ECG as winds start to increase this evening/tonight.
Winds will remain elevated through tomorrow morning, with snow
tapering off tomorrow morning at the northern terminals.

Outlook: Winds become NW Sunday and remain elevated but flight
restrictions should drop off as SN ends (though BLSN may remain an
issue). Otherwise mostly clear with gradually diminishing winds into
Monday. VFR conditions are expected through at least mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Ramp up Small Craft Advisories are in effect today as conditions
begin to deteriorate ahead of the main storm.

- Confidence remains high in high-end Gale to Storm conditions this
weekend as a strong coastal low develops off the Carolinas. Storm
Warnings remain in effect for most of the marine area.

- Freezing spray and high seas are expected this weekend as well. A
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for the bay, Lower
James, and northern two coastal zones for Saturday night into Sunday
morning, when accretion rates could reach 2 cm/hour for a few hours.

Strong high pressure is centered over the Plains, ridging down into
the northern Mid-Atlantic early this morning. Coastal low pressure
has begun to develop east of SC/GA. NE winds have increased to 15-20
kt with gusts to 25 kt.

Marine conditions will gradually deteriorate today before rapidly
deteriorating tonight as the low is still progged to deepen to a
very impressive 970-980mb as it tracks NNE to a position 100-200
miles east of the VA/NC coast by Sunday morning. NE winds will
increase to 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt by this afternoon, and the
ramp up SCAs remain as is. Very dangerous marine conditions are
expected tonight into Sunday with winds becoming N then NNW and
increasing to 30-40 kt north/35-45 kt south, with frequent gusts to
storm force (forecast gusts are up to ~55 kt). Peak winds are
expected to occur between 1 AM and noon. While there is a lot of
variance in the guidance with respect to snow totals, there still
are moderate to high (40-90%...highest south) probabilities for
storm force wind gusts over the lower Ches Bay and coastal waters.
Therefore, Storm and Gale Warnings remain as is and run from tonight
through Sunday afternoon. Will still have to watch for the potential
for a few storm force gusts in the upper bay and Lower James River
where Gale Warnings remain in effect. However, confidence was not
high enough to upgrade to Storm Warnings attm. In addition, light
freezing spray will continue through this evening. Then, as winds
pick up and CAA ensues with temps dropping into the upper teens-20F,
moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected across the bay, lower
James, and northern coastal waters from tonight-Sun AM. Light to
moderate freezing spray is expected across the SE VA/NE NC coastal
waters during this time as well. The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning
remains unchanged, but have added Freezing Spray Advisories for the
rivers and southern three coastal zones from 1 AM-1 PM Sunday (same
timeframe as the warnings).

Seas build to 8-12 ft across the northern coastal waters and 10-15+
feet across the southern coastal waters (highest across the NC
coastal waters) given the strong winds. High Surf Advisories have
been issued for all waters from late today/tonight through Sun
night. Localized beach/dune erosion is also possible. Additionally,
given the high probability for snow (potentially heavy), periods of
zero visibility remain likely across the southern coastal waters
late today into Sun AM. Winds become NW behind the low and gradually
diminish Mon. Sub-advisory winds return Monday evening and continue
through the middle of the week. Another round of SCAs is possible on
Thu/Fri behind another cold front. A stronger cold front may cross
the area next weekend, bringing the potential for high-end SCAs
and/or gales.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Max Temperatures for Sat Jan 31:

- RIC: 23 (1948)
- ORF: 25 (1936)
- SBY: 24 (2019)
- ECG: 29 (1965)

Daily Record Snowfall for Sat Jan 31 and Sun Feb 1:

- Date: Sat Jan 31    Sun Feb 1

- RIC: 7.0" (1948)    3.1" (1948)
- ORF: 4.0" (1980)    4.0" (1910)
- SBY: 4.0" (2010)    4.0" (1962)
- ECG: 5.0" (1980)    7.0" (1948)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ021>025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for MDZ021>025.
     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for
     MDZ022>025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Sunday for
     MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     MDZ025.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     NCZ014>016-031-032.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday
     for NCZ017-102.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday
     for NCZ102.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Sunday for NCZ102.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>083-085-087-088-509>522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Sunday for
     VAZ099.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     VAZ099-100.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for VAZ084-086-089-
     090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for VAZ092-093-
     095>100-523>525.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ084-
     086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     VAZ077-078-084-085-093-096-097-523-524.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday
     for VAZ095-098>100.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday
     for VAZ098.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for VAZ060-061-
     067>069-076>078-083-512>520-522.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for VAZ065-066-
     079>082-084>090.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for VAZ086-525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Sunday for VAZ093-
     096-524-525.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for VAZ095-
     097-098-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ630>634-656-658.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ630.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652.
     Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ631>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ635>637-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ638.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ650-652-654.
     Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/ERI
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...ERI
CLIMATE...LKB