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Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Tuckahoe VA
National Weather Service Forecast for: Tuckahoe VA
Issued by: National Weather Service Wakefield, VA
Updated: 1:57 pm EDT Aug 20, 2026
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 92. Southwest wind around 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
T-storms
Likely

Tonight

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. North wind 3 to 6 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
T-storms
Likely then
Chance
T-storms
Friday

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 82. North wind 3 to 6 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Mostly Cloudy
then Chance
T-storms
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 5am, then showers likely after 5am.  Low around 69. Light and variable wind.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Showers

Saturday

Saturday: Showers likely before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers
Likely

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Sunday

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Mostly Sunny

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.
Mostly Clear

Monday

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 85.
Sunny

Hi 92 °F Lo 69 °F Hi 82 °F Lo 69 °F Hi 84 °F Lo 68 °F Hi 86 °F Lo 64 °F Hi 85 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

This Afternoon
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 92. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Friday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
 
Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 5am, then showers likely after 5am. Low around 69. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Saturday
 
Showers likely before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 64.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 85.
Monday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 63.
Tuesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Tuesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 65.
Wednesday
 
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Tuckahoe VA.

Weather Forecast Discussion
110
FXUS61 KAKQ 201732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
132 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated Discussion

- A SLight Risk Severe Weather Outlook now in place for much of
  the area, with the exception of far SE VA and NE NC. A Slight
  Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains in place for coastal
  VA and the Eastern Shore (VA/MD).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An active weather pattern begins today and lasts through
Saturday. The severe weather threat peaks today, with all modes
of severe weather possible late this afternoon through this
evening. The threat from periodic locally heavy rainfall begins
this evening and continues into the upcoming weekend.

2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An active weather pattern begins today and
lasts through Saturday. The severe weather threat peaks today,
with all modes of severe weather possible late this afternoon
through this evening. The threat from periodic locally heavy
rainfall begins this evening and continues into the upcoming
weekend.

Latest analysis reveals the well-advertised cold front
extending from the Eastern Great Lakes back into central IN/IL
as of this writing. The front will reach the Mason-Dixon Line by
the early afternoon.

An upper-level low pivoting across SE Canada will amplify a
broad trough over the Eastern CONUS. Multiple shortwaves
tracking through the base of the trough from the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic tonight through Saturday will drive a
strong cold front toward the region. Increasing clouds and some
showers will be possible over far northern portions of our area
from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore by late morning. How
far south these clouds can push will be a crucial piece
regarding afternoon destabilization potential.

The severe weather threat will be fairly short-lived, but could
evolve rapidly late this afternoon and evening. A weak surface
low is progged to develop along a lee trough just north of
Richmond, tracking across the Northern Neck and MD Eastern
Shore. Storms should initiate along the lee trough in the
Piedmont before moving east into higher instability (MLCAPE
15002000 J/kg east of I-95) and strong 3040 kt deep-layer
shear. Initial discrete to semi-discrete cells will quickly
consolidate into more of a QLCS/bowing line segment storm mode
as outflow interacts with line-parallel flow focused along the
boundary. This initial transition to a more linear mode poses
the highest brief tornado threat, particularly from north of RIC
to Tappahannock and Salisbury, a narrow corridor where
boundary-relative 01 km SRH is maximized. Thereafter, cold-pool
dominant processes will take over, with the main hazard
transitioning to straight-line damaging winds and heavy rainfall
as forcing pushes the front east. It will be during this time
frame that a transition to more protracted hydro concern begins.
In terms of severe weather outlook, the SPC has expanded their
D1 Slight Risk to cover most of our area, with the exception of
far SE VA and NE NC, which remains in a Marginal Risk area.

Regarding heavy rainfall potential, slow frontal progression
increases confidence in several waves of heavy rain Thursday
through Saturday. PWATs rebound to 2.0-2.3", supporting
efficient rainfall rates along the stalled boundary. Broad
forcing for ascent increases this afternoon and evening with the
initial shortwave, expanding thunderstorm coverage. While
localized 3"/3hr HREF probabilities have pushed a bit farther
north, away from the local area, there is nevertheless a very
consistent QPF footprint from the past several runs of CAMS
showing localized flash flooding potential along the coast of
eastern VA and over the Eastern shore, coincident with
convection and a developing theta-e ridge. Slow moving storms
producing locally heavy rainfall will likely produce at least
localized issues tonight into Friday morning, most likely in
urban and poor-drainage areas.

The front lingers over the region Friday before pushing
offshore Saturday. Once again, the local area will be downstream
of the slow-moving trough axis on Friday, with at least a
couple of rounds of convection persisting along coastal areas.
CAMs have remained remarkably consistent with their heavy rain
signal over the local area, with the greatest heavy rain threat
shifting into the Carolinas, including south central/SE VA and
NE NC locally, as the upper trough axis digs farther SE into the
mid-south by Friday evening, diving another front toward the
local area. Meanwhile, the initial front will still be draped
along the coast Saturday morning. The approaching front and the
stalled front to the SE will each be the focus for additional
rounds of scattered showers and storms inland, and numerous to
widespread convection along the coast through Sat evening.

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks continue to outlook the entire
area today, with a Marginal risk along and west of I-95 and into
NC, with a Slight Risk over the VA coast and Eastern Shore. A
Slight Risk is in place for much of the area tomorrow, with the
exception of a Marginal Risk far NW counties. And a Marginal
Risk is in place for most of the area east of I-95 on Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday
through Tuesday.

Model ensembles remain in good agreement that the main upper trough
axis shifts offshore by Sunday, driving the cold front south and
east of the region. In its wake, surface high pressure builds over
the Mid-Atlantic, introducing a drier air mass and seasonable
temperatures through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 131 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions start off this 18z Taf period with SE to SSW
winds blowing around 10kt with gusts approaching 20kt. Showers
and thunderstorms have begun to intimate across the majority of
the area especially with the highest coverage across the SE and
Eastern Shore. Expect these storms to bring flight restrictions
and gusty winds across the terminals early to mid afternoon.
Through the rest of the afternoon and evening more widespread
showers and thunderstorms will initiate bringing flight
restrictions and gusty winds. Tempos have replaced the prob30s
at all TAF sites as confidence in these showers and storms have
increased. The storms will move out of the area around 6z
tonight. After these storms Low-level clouds will linger through
the morning bringing MVFR and then IFR conditions.

Outlook: Remaining unsettled Thursday night through Saturday ahead
of a slow-moving frontal boundary that will likely bring additional
rounds of showers and storms and sub-VFR conditions. Guidance
has trended toward IFR/MVFR CIGs lingering at PHF/ORF Friday
morning. Eventually drying out later Saturday night and Sunday,
with VFR conditions returning Sunday morning through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions expected through the weekend,
outside of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Some storms may become
strong to severe this afternoon and evening.

Prevailing sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to continue
through the end of the week and weekend. Winds have shifted out of
the south around 10-12 kt with a few gusts to 15 kt early this
morning. A weak frontal boundary will approach the waters later
today, stalling over the area Friday. Despite the boundary nearby,
not expecting much of an increase in wind speeds outside of
convection (15-20 kt), although winds may become more variable. The
main hazard through the period will be strong to severe
thunderstorms. Scattered to numerous storms are expected late this
afternoon through late evening (most likely timing between 5 PM-12
AM over the waters). Wind gusts to 50 kt are possible, and SMWs are
likely. Scattered showers/tstms are expected on Friday and Saturday
as well. While severe wx is less likely when compared to Thursday, a
few SMWs are possible.

There remains a low risk of rip currents at all beaches over the
next few days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...ERI/KMC
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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