Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

870
FXUS61 KAKQ 141919
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
319 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving low pressure brings a period of unsettled weather
today, especially from this afternoon through this evening.
Conditions turn warm, with summerlike heat and humidity Friday
and Saturday, and mainly afternoon and evening showers and
storms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A Flood Watch has been issued along the I-64 corridor from Hampton
Roads, Middle Peninsula, and Louisa/Fluvanna County for this
afternoon/evening.

- Showers and storms continue through this evening, with a few
becoming severe.

Latest weather analysis shows weak low pressure to the southwest of
the FA with a weak boundary extending to the north of the Chesapeake
Bay. Near the Florida Keys, high pressure begins to build. Showers
and storms have begun to develop with a few becoming severe. The
main line has moved into the far SW of the CWA and will continue
pushing northeast through this evening. Damaging winds and severe
hail are the primary threat into tonight as the atmosphere has
decent levels of instability and moisture, but low shear values.

With the rainfall from yesterday and additional showers/storms
expected this afternoon and evening, there is potential for flash
flooding along the I-64 corridor from the northern piedmont, Middle
Peninsula, Richmond and vicinity, Hampton Roads Peninsula and
through the Tidewaters. So far this afternoon, we have seen training
storms over Dinwiddie county which has produced up to 3" in the last
hour or so. Recent HREF model guidance has a likely probability of
these areas seeing up to 3" of rainfall within 3 hours, with locally
higher amounts possible. Taking into account of yesterday`s
rainfall, Flash Flood Guidance is relatively low (1.25-2" an hour)
for these areas. All this together, thinking the conditions are
right to see flooding in areas. In addition, WPC has upgraded the
Excessive Rainfall Outlook over our area to now include a slight
risk.

Tonight, the storms and showers will weaken and move out of the
area. Patchy fog is possible again as winds calm out and moisture
lingers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible Thursday
afternoon/evening.

- Temperatures trend warmer, with a summer-like feel on Friday.

Upper air ridging will try to push any remnants of the low pressure
that has influenced the region for the last few days. However,
lingering moisture and instability keep isolated to scattered
showers and storms a possibility on Thursday. Decent levels of
instability from the warm temperatures and moisture, along with good
shear values would support a few storms becoming severe. The
limiting factor will be storm development as rising heights will
deter storms from forming. SPC has the majority of the region in a
marginal risk (level 1/5) for Thursday with the potential for
damaging wind and severe hail as the primary threats. Overall, a
lower amount of coverage is expected compared than today.

Precipitation chances on Friday remain less than Thursday as a
shortwave trough moves through the region as a low pressure system
sets up near the Great Lakes and an associated cold front approaches
the region. A few showers are possible, mainly in the northern half
of the CWA, Friday afternoon.

As upper heights rise over the area and SW flow continues,
temperatures will also increase. Thursday`s high will be in the mid
80s (lower 80s for the Eastern Shore). Friday will be slightly
warmer with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat indices will reach the mid
90s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

The other story will be the briefly building heat for Friday
into the weekend. SW flow will lift a warm front through the
area on Friday morning. The incoming upper ridging, SW flow,
and resultant rising heights should yield highs well into the
80s to low 90s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to ~70 should yield
max heat index values well into the 90s over much of the region.
Mild with lows in the 60s to near 70 Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warm and humid Saturday with isolated to scattered showers
possible.

- Drying out Sunday into the early half of next week as high
pressure returns.

A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will continue its trek
eastward. An associated cold front will move through the area late
Saturday. Before the cooler air reaches the region, the warm air
behind the warm front will result in similar high temperatures as
Friday (in the upper 80s). Dewpoints will be slightly cooler in the
upper 60s, which will have an apparent temperature slightly cooler
than Friday (in the lower to mid 90s), although the day will still
feel summer-like with the humidity. Once that front reaches the
area, isolated to scattered showers are possible, but the front
appears to be rather weak, so confidence is not high at this time.
Behind the front, temperatures return back to normal for this time
of year as well as drier days for the mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...

Currently VFR across the region. A disturbance will move through the
area this afternoon into early this evening. This will allow for
showers and storms to move northeast across the area. Have opted to
include a prob30 for TSRA at RIC, ORF, ECG and PHF between 21z and
01z later this afternoon into this evening. The strongest storms may
bring brief IFR conditions.

Behind this disturbance, the precipitation should end and clouds
should once again clear out. With additional low level moisture from
today`s rainfall, there is a possibility of IFR conditions to
develop overnight into early Thu morning (similar to this morning).
These should lift and break up soon after sunrise with VFR
conditions Thu morning.

Outlook: Additional showers and storms, albeit with steadily
decreasing areal coverage is expected both Thu & Fri. Predominate
VFR conditions return over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 205 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories linger across the coastal waters today for
elevated seas.

- Calmer across the marine area for the remainder of the week,
outside of daily showers and storms.

Elevated seas are lingering across the local coastal waters this
afternoon with ~5ft S of Cape Charles and 5-7ft N. The SCA for
the southern coastal waters did have to be extended until 4pm.
SCAs for northern coastal waters will continue into tonight.
Winds this afternoon are 5-10kt out of the SE. There will be
the threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Some storms may become strong to severe and be capable
of producing strong damaging winds. Expect seas to gradually
subside through the night, reaching 3-4ft across the south and
4-5ft across the north by late tonight. SCAs should be allowed
to drop off later tonight. Seas will be 3-4ft through Friday,
then 2-3ft for the weekend. Winds will turn to the S tonight,
remaining at 5-10kt.

Outside of any storms, winds look to remain rather benign through
the remainder of the week. There may be brief period of slightly
elevated but still sub-SCA winds Saturday night, especially across
the lower Bay, but confidence is low for now. Daily shower and storm
threats persist.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The high rainfall amounts yesterday in the VA mountains is
making its way down the James River. The Rivanna River at
Palmyra gauge reached minor flood stage last night and a Flood
Warning will remain in effect through late tonight. Along the
James River, the Cartersville, Richmond-Westham, and Richmond
Locks gauges will reach minor flood stage this afternoon and
evening as water continues to move towards the bay. Flood
Warnings will go into effect in conjunction with the minor
flooding.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-062-064-
     069-081>086-089-090-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...AC/JKP
HYDROLOGY...