Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

548
FXUS61 KAKQ 110811
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
411 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added a Heat Advisory for the Albemarle Sound counties of
interior NE NC. Otherwise, forecast thinking remains fairly
similar.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity persists today with isolated to scattered
showers and storms possible late this afternoon into this evening.


2) An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of the week.
However, uncertainty remains high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity persists today across the
south, along with isolated to scattered showers and storms
area-wide.

Early morning WX analysis indicates a W-NW flow aloft with the
Bermuda high now getting shunted farther south to the Gulf coast
and Bahamas. The latest radar indicates another MCS not too far
off from the one yesterday aftn, currently located across WV and
moving E-SE. The main difference is that this will not be encountering
nearly as favorable of an airmass given the early AM timeframe
as well as cooler temperatures even compared to the past few
mornings (upper 60s to lower 70s). Therefore, this feature
should weaken further through sunrise as it moves east of the
Appalachians, though a few showers may brush our northern
counties through mid morning.

With the airmass overturned from yesterday`s widespread convection
across VA/MD, today`s SVR potential is highly uncertain. Debris
clouds are likely across at least the northern 1/2 of the CWA
through late morning/early aftn which will limit or at least
delay instability. The CAMs, which generally did poorly
yesterday show varying solutions for this aftn/evening- the 00Z
RRFS is the most aggressive at brining another more organized
line of storms through the CWA from late aftn into the evening,
while the other models are much less bullish on this scenario.
The 06Z HRRR has trended closer to the RRFS solution, so at
least 30-40% PoPs will continue to be maintained for most of the
area. SPC has most of the area in a Marginal SVR risk,
primarily for damaging wind gusts, as shear is decent for August
(25-30 kt) with a Slight Risk just making it into our far NW.
The SPC discussion does note the high uncertainty given the
current MCS and how this might affect aftn conditions. In
addition, a Marginal ERO is in effect for most of the region
(with a Slight nudging into the far NW). The sfc winds are a bit
more from the W-SW today, and given this, decided to hoist a
small Heat Advisory for the interior NE NC zones along the
Albemarle sound where sfc dew pts should be several degrees
higher, along with highs into the mid 90s, leading to heat
indices of 105+ for a few hrs. Elsewhere, highs will generally
be in the lower 90s (upper 80s/around 90F far N with heat
indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s).

show multiple rounds of MCSs developing in the
WNW/NW flow aloft. However, where they track and when they
develop will have large implications to the local weather. Most
CAMs have an overturned airmass moving into the region in the
wake of today`s MCS for Tue. As such, HREF (as well as most
individual models/CAMs) show dew points in the upper 60s to
around 70F Tue afternoon (as opposed to the mid 70s from the
NBM) and lower surface temps. Therefore, have blended in lower
guidance for dew points but held off (for now) on dropping high
temps by more than a degree or two due to uncertainty regarding
whether or not partial clearing can occur during the afternoon.
This resulted in heat indices remaining below heat advisory
criteria. As such, no heat headlines will be issued at this
time. Will note that latest guidance keeps temps even cooler
than the current forecast. In general, highs in lower 90s are
the most likely scenario with locally upper 80s or mid 90s
possible Tue. Additionally, as a result of the overturned
airmass, widespread cloud cover and mixed dew points could
result in very little instability Tue afternoon. HREF mean CAPE
only shows around 500 J/kg for most of the area (which for
August is very low). As such, confidence in storm development
(and especially severe potential) for Tue has decreased
substantially. Nevertheless, SPC has maintained a marginal risk
(1/5) for severe storms across most of the area with a slight
risk (level 2/5) across portions of Piedmont. WPC has also
maintained a marginal ERO across the area for Tue.





KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder
of the week, trending to a cooler and somewhat drier start to
the weekend. However, uncertainty remains high.

WNW flow aloft continues Wed through the remainder of the week
as a ridge aloft is expected to continue through late in the
week as an upper level ridge builds across the central CONUS,
and eventually shifts E-SE across the deep south. Meanwhile, a
trough lingers across New England and eastern Canada. Expect an
active pattern with the daily potential for isolated to
scattered storms each afternoon/evening.

SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms
across southern portions of the FA Wed. However, confidence
continues to remain low given uncertainty in aforementioned MCS
timing and impacts. For now, have largely kept NBM PoPs
(30-35% SW to 15-25% NE) to account for the potential for
isolated to scattered storms. Beyond Wed, the pattern remains
similar with only a slight chance (15-20%) for a few isolated
showers or storms on Thu (and only general thunder risk) with a
better chance on Fri (30-40% PoPs). Outside of convection,
temps remain near the warm side of normal with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu and upper 80s to lower 90s
Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Primarily VFR conditions prevail early this morning aside from
some local pockets of fog and low stratus over interior SE VA,
though none of this has affected any of the main terminals.
Mid/high clouds overspread most of the region through sunrise,
with perhaps a SHRA at SBY between 10-14Z (have a PROB30), but
remaining dry elsewhere. Otherwise, winds will be mainly from
the W today at less than 10 kt (ORF could see a shift to the NE
for a few hrs this aftn). Storm coverage later today is highly
uncertain, but still have mainly PoPs ~30% later in the
aftn/early evening, so have included PROB30 groups for TSRA at
RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG between 19-21Z through 23-01Z. Mainly VFR
tonight with storm chances diminishing.

Outlook: Expect predominate VFR conditions prevail Tue through
Thu. However, daily low-end chances for isolated to scattered
showers and storms exists each day. Along with this comes a
chance for early morning stratus/ground fog each late
night/early morning Wednesday through Friday AM.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through most of
  the week.

Morning weather analysis shows high pressure continuing to sit well
offshore, with a weak surface low over New England. The pressure
gradient from these two systems continues to remain weak but just
strong enough to keep the winds out of the W around 10kt with some
gusts around 15 kt. Seas this morning are around 1-2ft across the bay
and 2-3ft across the ocean. Through the morning and into the
afternoon of today, winds will shift out of the WSW and remain
around 10 kt with gusts nearing 15kt. Seas will remain quite benign
and not change much through the day and stay around 1-2ft in the bay
and 2-3 ft across the ocean. In terms of storm chances for this
afternoon, models continue to back off on scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. This is due to the possibility of cloud
cover lingering from this mornings ongoing convection to the west.
However, if the clouds are able to clear and daytime heating is able
to take place the threat for a strong to severe storm cannot be
ruled out. The main threat with these storms would be strong winds
greater than 34kt. Greater convective coverage is possible on
Wednesday but with low confidence on the details. Otherwise, benign
marine conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the week.

By the end of the week a  cold front will gradually approach and
shift winds to the N-NE by late Friday into next weekend. Models are
generally keeping the winds rather light, but if the front actually
pushes south of the waters, this would potentially bring SCAs, but
uncertainty is high at this range.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ015>017-031-032.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB
AVIATION...LKB/RMM
MARINE...HET/RHR