Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

907
FXUS61 KAKQ 200527
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1227 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence continues to increase with respect to the
development of coastal low pressure Sunday into Monday. However,
confidence remains low with regard to sensible weather impacts,
including the potential for precipitation to end as snow or a
rain/snow mix Sunday night into early Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A back door cold front will linger over the region tonight into
early Friday bringing clouds, occasional light rain and drizzle, and
areas of fog, especially toward the coast.

2) A cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon and settles into
the Carolinas Saturday as a wave of low pressure tracks along the
boundary.

3) Stronger coastal low pressure likely impacts the region Sunday
into early Monday but sensible weather details remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 PM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A backdoor cold front will linger over the
region tonight into early Friday bringing clouds, occasional
light rain and drizzle, and areas of fog, especially toward the
coast.

GOES water vapor channels depict zonal flow across the Mid-
Atlantic region this afternoon between a vigorous upper low over
the Great Lakes and a broad flat ridge over FL and the adjacent
Gulf and Atlantic waters. At the surface, high pressure has
nudged S across New England, which has pushed a backdoor cold
front to about the VA/NC border. Temperatures N/NE of the
boundary are in the mid 40s to lower 50s, and upper 50s to mid
60s S/SW of the boundary. Areas of light rain persist, but vsby
has improved.

The front becomes stationary over northern NC tonight, and then
slowly lifts NE as a warm front Friday morning. The cool air
will shallow tonight, and this should result in areas of fog and
drizzle. Steadier rain will gradually lift to the NE this
evening. Total QPF will generally be 0.1" or less S, to
0.25-0.5" N. Temperatures will be steady in the mid 40s N to
lower/mid 50s S. Low clouds will be slow to scatter and lift
Friday morning with most areas remaining mostly cloudy to
overcast through at least midday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the region Friday
afternoon and settles into the Carolinas Saturday as a wave of
low pressure tracks along the boundary.

A cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon. There will
initially be no CAA behind the boundary. However, this should
gradually scour out the low-level cool/moist airmass. Given the
slow clearing trend, have undercut NBM highs especially from the
Piedmont to the Eastern Shore. Forecast highs are generally in
the lower/mid 70s for SE VA/NE NC, mid/upper 60s for central VA,
and 50s for the Eastern Shore, but these values will be lower
if the low clouds take longer to scour out.

Drier air arrives Friday night with lows in the 40s. A wave of
low pressure tracks along the front Saturday as it settles
across the Carolinas. This will bring clouds, and a chc of rain
to southern VA/NE NC. Additional QPF will be less than 0.1".
High temperatures will mainly be in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Stronger coastal low pressure likely impacts
the region Sunday into early Monday but sensible weather details
remain uncertain.

By Sunday through early Monday, most model guidance continues
to depict a vigorous upper trough and strengthening coastal low
pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Confidence in the storm
developing remains high. However, there continues to be
uncertainty in resultant sensible weather impacts, which is
associated with how quickly to low deepens and how close the
deepening occurs to the coast. The 19/12z GFS and GEFS are more
vigorous and wintry than the ECMWF/EPS and CMC/GEPS. At this
time the EC/CMC solutions are favored generally depicting rain
ending as snow, especially from central VA to the Eastern Shore
as colder air is pulled into the system. EPS/GEPS probabilities
are similar to earlier runs and did not depict the same upward
trend as the GEFS. Accumulating snow is possible, especially NE,
but will likely mainly be on grass and elevated surfaces.
Timing for snow is Sunday night into early Monday with
precipitation ending during the day Monday. In addition rain and
snow, strong gusty winds are possible, especially along the
coast.

Temperatures will be below average to begin the week, with a
moderating trend by midweek ahead of another cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1227 AM EST Friday...

A stationary front is draped just south of the local area. All
of the terminals remain socked in with low clouds and
restricted vsbys as a result. These IFR/LIFR conditions are
expected to continue through the 9z TAF period. The sub 1 mile
vsbys are largely limited to coastal terminals as of latest obs,
but expect the lower vsbys to spread inland to RIC later this
morning. Showers/drizzle continues overnight as well, primarily
across the north. LIFR/IFR conditions likely continue through
the morning with improving conditions in the afternoon as the
front lifts back north and a cold front sweeps through. NE winds
turn to the SW through the day tomorrow as that front lifts
north.

Outlook: The cold front lingers S of the area Saturday, with
rain chances lingering across southern VA and NE NC (mainly at
ORF, PHF, and ECG). Stronger low pressure develops off the coast
Sunday into Monday and this has the potential to bring another
period of rain, gusty winds, and flight restrictions to the
region Sunday into early Monday. Precipitation could end as a
rain/snow mix or all snow at SBY and RIC. Drier air and high
pressure will bring a return to VFR conditions later Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisory continues for the coastal waters from
  Cape Charles Light southward.

- The backdoor front has moved into the area with areas of marine
  fog continuing this evening and tonight.

- A stronger system potentially impacts the waters Sunday into early
  next week.

The backdoor front has stalled near the VA/NC border early this
afternoon. Most observations show east or northeast winds 5-15 kt
with seas 3-4 ft. Marine fog has been widespread today but has shown
some improvement across the northern and central waters over the
last few hours. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory continues for areas that
remain near or just south of the front. The boundary is forecast to
meander across the region this evening and tonight with potential
for visibility to drop back below 1 NM in the Ches Bay/rivers and
northern coastal waters. Given low confidence in specifics of
frontal motion and timing, will decide to expand/extend based on
short-term trends and observations this evening. That said, boaters
should be prepared for potential rapid changes in visibility through
tonight. E and NE flow continues tonight with guidance still showing
some potential for 4-5 ft seas across the northern coastal waters.
Have not issued any SCA headlines to cover this possible threat as
confidence in seas rising consistently aoa 5 ft is low. The front is
forecast to lift back northward on Friday with sub-advisory winds
becoming S and SW ahead of the trailing cold front then becoming
westerly Friday and early Saturday.

12z guidance continues to show a stronger system developing near the
coast Sunday and moving out to sea Monday. There remains
considerable disagreement in the models regarding low strength and
track with the GFS a very strong and close to the coast outlier vs
the ECMWF and Canadian models. Regardless of specific model details,
potential for Gale conditions continues to increase with local wind
probabilities showing 50-80% probs of 34 kt gusts in the coastal
waters and 30-50% in the Chesapeake. If the guidance begins to
converge toward the stronger model solutions over the next 12-24
hours, Gale or Storm Watches are likely in subsequent forecasts.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ633-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ
AVIATION...AC/HET
MARINE...RHR