Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

651
FXUS61 KAKQ 220002
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
802 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and remaining dry through tonight.

2) Showers and storms return Monday, with some storms
potentially becoming strong to severe.

3) A typical summer-like pattern takes hold for mid to late
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....Warmer and remaining dry through tonight.

Surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic region gradually
shifts to the south this evening, as an area of low pressure to
our NW approaches the local area. A warm front attached to the
low will lift through the region late tonight, with a resulting
wind shift to the S-SW. Increasing moisture within the
southerly flow is also forecast, with dew points climbing into
the upper 60s to lower 70s by Monday morning. Rain will remain
out of the forecast today and tonight, returning on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and storms return Monday, with some storms
potentially becoming strong to severe.

First, it is worth noting one substantial mesoscale wild card
that could again throw a wrench into Monday`s severe and thermal
evolution. Latest 12z/21 CAMs continue to track a potential
MCS/MCV that could develop this evening and track across N KY
and S OH late tonight. While the multi-model consensus is quick
to wash out this activity with loss of heating, as is often the
case with nocturnal convection, there is some support for some
LLJ enhancement that could allow the MCV to push into S WV/W VA
by early Monday morning. If this feature can push that far east,
its remnant debris cloud shield or at least a stabilized cold
pool could spill into our northern and western counties Monday
morning. Much like the system that quickly altered expectations
late last week, this would more substantially limit morning
insolation, strengthening or at least delaying cap erosion, or
prematurely forcing early convective initiation along leftover
outflow boundaries. While this is admittedly a low probability
solution, given the inherent volatility with CAMs, confidence in
the exact timing and coverage of Monday`s severe threat remains
limited until the evolution of this overnight complex becomes
clearer.

Provided that wave of convection weakens as modeled, increasingly
breezy S-SW winds are then expected by midday Monday in the
wake of the attendant surface warm front lifting across the area
Monday morning, while a surface low tracks to our N-NW. Gusts
of 20-25 mph, up to 30 mph on the Eastern Shore, are forecast
during the afternoon outside of any convective development.
Increasing moisture may lead to a bit more cloud cover than
previous days, but temperatures will still rise well into the
90s, yielding afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to low
100s.

Forecast soundings show increasing instability by early
afternoon, but also highlight some lingering convective
inhibition that will need to be overcome. It still appears that
rain chances will ramp up after 3 to 4 PM Monday as the cap
erodes. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for
severe weather for most of the area Monday, noting that while
the environment could support multiple storm modes, damaging
winds remain the primary threat. However, the tornado threat
will be relatively maximized across our northern tier of the MD
Eastern Shore counties right along the southern periphery of
the warm front. Meanwhile, small to marginally severe hail will
also be possible area wide within the strongest updrafts.

In terms of storm mode, multicellular storms and bowing line
segments are favored at this time. Deep-layer bulk shear is not
expected to be overly strong, ranging from ~25-35 kt across the
far north, tapering to ~20 kt south of Interstate 64. However,
low-level lapse rates will again be quite steep due to very warm
surface temperatures, favoring the potential for cold-pool
dominated storms with water-loaded downdrafts. Additionally,
PWAT values increase to 1.75-2.00" through the day, leading to
the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Widespread flooding
issues are certainly not expected given very dry antecedent
conditions, but we will need to monitor urban and typical poor-
drainage areas. Current QPF values range from around 0.25" in
the southeast to near 1.00" in the northwest, though localized
totals over an inch are entirely possible in the stronger
storms. The shower and storm threat will continue through the
evening before tapering off overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A more summer-like pattern takes hold for mid
to late week.

The front drops across the area on Tuesday, though the timing
might be slow enough that southeast VA and northeast NC may
still be able to warm up into the upper 80s with dew points in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Most guidance suggests that enough
instability will linger across the area, especially near the
coast, to support some additional shower and thunderstorm
development Tuesday afternoon. This potential would be largely
mitigated if the frontal timing ultimately trends a bit quicker,
with time. For now, we have maintained low-end rain chances
through Tuesday afternoon until better multi-model consensus can
be reached.

For the remainder of the week, a more typical summertime
pattern sets up for late week. Mainly seasonable temperatures
are expected, with diurnally driven, scattered late-day and
evening showers and storms possible each day. Expect highs
mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s, with overnight lows in the
60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail this evening at all terminals with mainly
SCT clouds and a light easterly wind that has pushed well inland.
Winds veer to the S-SE late tonight across all terminals as a
(weak) warm front starts to lift across the area. Some potential
for a period of higher cloud cover early Monday (especially
north) as upstream MCS could partially hold together upon
crossing the Appalachians (this would still just be mid level
clouds and shower chances are very low). Increasing southerly
winds develop by mid/late morning Monday, with gusts to 20-25 kt
likely through the aftn. Looks like a late arrival of
SHRA/TSRA, and have confined PROB30 groups to just RIC/SBY, with
much of the convection closer to 00Z for PHF/ORF/ECG.

Outlook: Decent chc for periodic flight restrictions Monday
evening in scattered SHRA/TSRA, and some patchy low stratus or
fog early Tuesday. Mainly VFR during the day Tuesday, but with
additional diurnally- driven late day/evening tstms possible.
Mainly dry/VFR Wed. Additional late day showers/storms possible
Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue today and through most of
  tonight.

- S-SE winds strengthen on Monday ahead of the next system with Small
  Craft Advisories issued for all marine zones north of the
  VA/NC border from Monday through parts of Monday night.

Weak surface high pressure remains over most of eastern CONUS this
afternoon, allowing benign marine conditions with mostly southerly
winds around 5-10 kt. With the light flow, seas breezes are
expected. A low pressure system tracks towards the area tonight from
the mid-Mississippi River Valley, passing just to the north of the
area Monday night. The low will drag a warm front through the area
tonight, reinforcing the S-SE flow with wind speeds around 10-15 kt
before sunrise. Winds increase to 15-20 kt on the rivers, and 20-25
kt across part of the bay and the offshore waters north of the VA-NC
border (with gusts to 30 kt) behind the warm front during the day
Monday. Winds will be a few knots less across the NC waters. Wind
speeds will peak late Monday afternoon into the early evening before
leveling off or diminishing slightly into Tuesday morning. Seas will
build to 3-4 ft south/4-6 ft north. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect for all marine zones north of the VA/NC border from late
monday morning through Monday night.

Additionally, isolated strong to severe storms are possible late
Monday afternoon into Monday evening, which will likely necessitate
SMWs. As the low tracks to our north, a weak cold front will cross
the waters Monday night. By Tuesday morning, winds will have shifted
out of the N-NW around 5-10 kt. Winds will likely increase slightly
Tuesday night to ~10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, but looks to stay below
SCA criteria in the Ches. Bay. Improving marine conditions are
expected Tuesday night through midweek as high pressure returns.

A low rip current risk remains in place today across all area
beaches. Monday, the rip risk increases to high across the northern
beaches and moderates across VA Beach and Eastern Currituck.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ635>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ654-656.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...ERI/KMC