Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

058
FXUS61 KAKQ 162350
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
750 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 00Z TAF/aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and storms are possible across the
northern tier of counties this evening into early Wednesday.
A low-end threat for an isolated strong to severe storms also
exists over the Northern Neck and Lower Eastern Shore late
tonight.

2) Heating up on Thursday, then shower/storm chances return
Thursday evening, potentially lingering into Friday morning.

3) Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday night. Lingering
showers are possible Friday morning. Gradual clearing late
Friday and Friday night looks to give way to a mainly dry,
pleasant weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....Scattered showers and storms are possible
across the northern tier of counties this evening into early
Wednesday. A low-end threat for an isolated strong to severe
storms also exists over the Northern Neck and Lower Eastern
Shore late tonight.

Low pressure over the NC OBX will lift northeast offshore of
the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. As it does so, it will pull a
stalled frontal boundary back north as a warm front this evening
into early Wednesday morning. There is decent agreement among
the 12z CAMs that this feature will trigger weak convection late
tonight. Scattered showers are possible, mainly along the
coast, with a stronger storm or two possible within a marginally
unstable environment just ahead of the front over the Northern
Neck and Lower Eastern Shore. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) over this northeastern portion of the forecast
area, primarily for small hail and gusty winds.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Heating up on Thursday, then shower/storm chances
return Thursday evening, potentially lingering into Friday
morning.

Behind the warm front, a warmer and slightly more humid airmass
pushes into the region Wednesday through Thursday, maintaining
mainly dry conditions through at least midday Thursday. An upper
trough and associated cold front will approach from the west on
Thursday, allowing compressional heating to ramp up ahead of
the boundary. Highs look to warm into the upper 80s to around
90F on Wednesday, then surge well into the mid-to-upper 90s on
Thursday on increasingly breezy SSW winds. Heat indices top out
around 100F on Wednesday.

For Thursday, deep afternoon mixing from W-SW downslope flow
should help to mix out moist early morning low-level dewpoints,
making for at least a drier feeling afternoon. Nevertheless,
very warm to hot ambient temps should still yield Heat Index
values in the 100 to 105F range. Heat headlines may ultimately
be needed for portions of the area. For now will outline heat
potential in the HWO.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday
evening. Lingering showers are possible Friday morning. Gradual
clearing late Friday and Friday night looks to give way to a
mainly dry, pleasant weekend

Model trends continue to lean slower with the frontal passage
Thursday night into Friday. Given this slower timing and the
pre-frontal downslope flow, the window for showers and storms
has also trended later into the evening and overnight hours.
While later diurnal timing typically mitigates the severe
threat, a window remains during the evening where lingering
instability and high DCAPE (exceeding 1000 J/kg) could support a
few strong to severe downbursts, focused along a shortwave
trough lifting across the region ahead of the main front.

In terms of kinematics/storm mode, 25-30 kt of deep-layer bulk
shear forecast across our northern tier favors a more discrete
or loosely-organized multicell storm mode, with the stronger
forcing and higher shear profiles displaced to our north and
northeast. Because of the inverted-V signature evident on
forecast soundings, indicative of the high-DCAPE environment
locally, any storms that do push into our area are more likely
to be cold-pool dominant. For that reason, the prevailing
thought at this time is that the primary threat will be from
localized convective outflows or gust fronts producing isolated
damaging wind gusts. The highest probabilities for this remain
focused across the VA Piedmont into the RIC metro and Northern
Neck for Thursday evening. Will outline this severe threat in
the HWO.

Another northern stream shortwave, attendant to a potent upper
low over central Canada, will ultimately push the slow-moving
cold front through the region Friday morning. Rain is likely
during this period, as Gulf moisture overruns the boundary as it
drops through the region. While some welcome measurable
rainfall does seem likely, this synoptic setup typically limits
the period for appreciable rainfall, as rapid clearing becomes
increasingly likely Friday afternoon and night as the front
sweeps south. Furthermore, the signal from multi-model guidance
is trending toward keeping moisture associated with a potential
tropical system well to our south over the Gulf/Southeast,
offering no additional rainfall opportunities.

In terms of sensible weather, trends continue to favor a dry
weekend, with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Tuesday...

A weak area of low pressure along the NC Outer Banks lifts
slowly northeast through late tonight, and will lift a weak
front back north as a warm front. This will maintain increased
mid to high level cloud cover through tonight, especially across
the SE terminals. While most terminals should remain VFR, ECG
has already dropped to MVFR (~2000 ft) CIGs. MVFR CIGs could
continue at ECG through ~7z Wed. Additionally, some model
guidance tries to bring MVFR or IFR CIGs to ORF overnight.
However, confidence was too low to include lower CIGs in the
ORF TAF at this time. Outside of CIGs, there is a low-end chance
for a few isolated showers at ORF/ECG/SBY overnight. That being
said, confidence continues to decrease in this scenario. As
such, have removed TEMPOs for ORF/ECG. For SBY, an isolated
shower or storm remains possible mainly between 8-11z Wed. If a
stronger storm was to develop, hail, gusty winds, and lightning
would be possible. However, confidence remains low,
particularly for deeper convection/lightning. Therefore, went
with a PROB30 for showers at this time. Clouds clear from W to E
Wed morning with mostly sunny skies expected Wed afternoon.
Otherwise, light and variable winds tonight become WSW/SW 5-10
kt Wed apart from a sea/bay breeze moving onshore during the
afternoon (likely impacting ORF).

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue Wednesday night
through Thursday evening, with showers/storms possible mainly
Thu evening into early Fri with lingering showers and embedded
storms into Fri afternoon. Drier conditions/VFR conditions
return late Fri into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- High pressure brings generally benign marine conditions through
  Wednesday.

- A period of elevated SW winds is likely Wednesday night into
  Thursday night with SCA conditions likely.

A front is draped to our south and west this afternoon with weak low
pressure noted off the southern/central NC coast. Winds are mainly
from the E at 5-10 kt. Waves in the bay are around 1 ft with seas 2-
3 ft. The warm front lifts northward this evening into tonight with
winds becoming SE 10-15 kt behind the boundary. A few storms are
possible very late tonight, primarily across the central/northern
Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters. The main threat from any
convection that manages to form will be gusty winds. Sub-SCA
conditions are expected to continue until the gradient tightens
ahead of the next front late Wednesday night into Thursday. SW winds
increase, averaging 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25+ knots as a cold
front begins to approach from the NW and strong low pressure
develops north of the area. Waves build to 2-3 ft in the bay with
seas building to 4-6 ft near shore (highest N). SCAs will likely be
needed for the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers, as well as a
majority of the coastal waters starting Thursday morning and
continuing into at least the first half of Thursday night. Winds
will be a little stronger in the 20-60nm zones Thursday and Thursday
night with gusts around 30 kt, but the latest model runs and local
wind probs have backed off a bit with the wind magnitude vs the
overnight guidance. Seas build to 5-8 ft during this period well
offshore. Showers and storms are possible ahead of the cold front
with gusty winds and locally higher waves/seas. The cold front drops
across the local waters on Friday with winds shifting to the N/NW
behind the front (sub-SCA). Winds diminish Saturday into Sunday as
high pressure builds into the area. Winds and seas may increase
again early next week as another system approaches the region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/MAM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB/RHR