Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

402
FXUS61 KAKQ 251914
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
314 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- A Frost Advisory has been issued for the Piedmont counties
  west, northwest and north of the Richmond metro.

- The Small Craft Advisory for the southern coastal waters has
  been extended through Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through midweek,
trending to above normal late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with seasonable temperatures
through midweek, trending to above normal late in the week.

GOES water vapor channels continue to depict a highly amplified
pattern with an upper ridge extending from the lower/mid
Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes, with a trough
lingering off the East Coast. At the surface, 1035mb high
pressure is centered from SE PA into the northern Delmarva this
afternoon. Mostly sunny with temperatures in the mid to upper
60s, with dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 40s. The wind
remains NE and light for much of the area. However, it is still
gusting to 20-25 mph along the coasts of SE VA and NE NC.

The surface high continues to settle southward tonight with the
axis oriented in vicinity of the VA Piedmont. Given this, there
is a greater potential for a more widespread frost spreading
east from the Piedmont to interior SE VA as better decoupling is
expected. It is a little concerning that dewpoints have
lingered in the 40s today. However, temperatures away from the
coast have been radiating well in this pattern, and have
continued the same thinking as the previous shift to go a few
degrees (or several degrees in some areas) colder than NBM. This
results in mid 30s forecast for the Piedmont (locally lower 30s
possible) and and mid-upper 30s for interior SE VA and the
lower MD Eastern Shore. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the
NW Piedmont counties where confidence is highest for 2m
temperatures falling to near freezing.

After the cold start, turning warmer Monday and Tuesday ahead
of the next (dry) front, then slightly cooler Wednesday and
staying dry. Temperatures warm above average late in the week
with high temperatures well into the 70s for most, along with no
rain chances as moisture is expected to stay offshore off the
SE US coast. The 25/12z ECMWF ensemble/GEFS chance for
measurable rain (.01"+) of rain through the end of the month is
basically zero aside from some low probs showing up in
southeastern portions of the area later in the week into the
following weekend from the EC ens. (GEFS has none), but when
switching the threshold to 0.1"+ the EC ens. basically has zero
probs. It should be noted that despite the ongoing
drought/precipitation deficit across much of the area, none of
our long-term climate sites will rank among the 10 driest
Octobers on record (as October has several occurrences with
monthly rainfall amounts of less than 0.50").

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...

1035mb high pressure was centered over SE PA, NE MD, and DE as
of 18z. VFR under a mostly sunny sky with FEW CU. The wind was
NE 6-12kt, and gusting to ~20kt at ORF and ECG. VFR conditions
are expected to prevail for the 25/18z TAF period under a
clear/sunny sky. High pressure settles S into the region tonight
and Monday. The wind will become calm to very light for most
sites, and locally remain NE/NNE 5-10kt at ORF and ECG. Some
patchy shallow ground fog is possible where the wind becomes
calm. However, confidence is currently not high enough to
include at any terminals. The wind remains light Monday,
generally WNW at RIC and SBY, and N/NNE at PHF, ORF, and ECG.

Outlook: Elevated N to NE winds return Tuesday and Wednesday.
Otherwise, dry and VFR conditions continue through the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated seas will remain elevated across the southern
  coastal waters into Monday with small craft advisories
  continued into Monday.

High pressure continues to sink southward into the Mid-
Atlantic states this afternoon. As a result the winds across the
waters continue to weaken to the 10 - 15 kt range, except in
the southern coastal water zones where winds 15 to 20 kt
continue with gust to 25 kt. Those winds will gradually weaken
later tonight into Monday as the sfc high continues to sink
south down the eastern seaboard. The SCAs for the southern
waters go until 6 pm Monday as the seas linger in the 5-6 ft
range south of Cape Charles.

A cold front drops into the area from the north on Tuesday with
a repeat of the NE flow developing behind the front Tuesday
night into Wednesday as high pressure builds into New England
and down the eastern seaboard. Additional SCAs may be needed for
the coastal waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ048-060>062-
     064-067>069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ESS