Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

496
FXUS61 KAKQ 251925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
325 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated full discussion. No major forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A more typical summertime pattern prevails Friday with a low
chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

2) Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend
with hot and humid weather expected, especially on Saturday.
Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures return early next
week.

3) A warming trend is expected by the middle of next week, with
more significant heat possible by later in the week.
Shower/thunderstorm chances remain very low through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A more typical summertime pattern prevails
Friday with a low chance of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

High pressure is centered immediately offshore this afternoon.
Partly to mostly sunny with temperatures in the mid 80s, with
upper 70s at the immediate coast due a slight onshore component
to the wind. Quasi-zonal flow prevails aloft from the central
CONUS to the Mid-Atlantic, with several shortwaves tracking from
the High Plains to TN Valley. Mostly clear tonight with
seasonal temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Hotter and more summerlike (low-mid 90s) on Friday with
continued low-level S-SW flow. Heat indices ~100F are possible
in SE VA/NE NC, but generally mid/upper 90s for most of the
area. However, an approaching shortwave will bring a low chc of
showers and tstms to the area during the afternoon and evening.
While it is uncertain exactly how convection will evolve, there
remains hints that tstms initially develop in 2 areas Friday
afternoon: along the higher terrain to our west and to our SW
across the central Carolinas. The best storm chances locally
will initially be across northern and western portions of the
area, with isolated-scattered convection potentially spreading E
or SE during the early part of Friday night before diurnal
weakening occurs. It is important to note that most areas
probably stay dry Fri aftn/evening, especially in SE VA/NE NC.
With the heat and humidity, a few stronger tstms capable of
producing highly localized damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled
out, especially given increasing 500mb flow in advance of a
shortwave trough to our NW.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances continue
through the weekend with hot and humid weather expected,
especially on Saturday. Dry weather and slightly cooler
temperatures return early next week.

The upper level flow gradually shifts from the W to NW over the
weekend as strong ridging builds over the Mississippi River
Valley. A series of shortwaves will drag a cold front through
the area late Sunday or Sunday night. While there could be an
isolated shower or storm closer to the coast Saturday morning-
midday, scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are
expected area-wide from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening as a slightly stronger shortwave tracks over the area.
With decent W-WNW flow aloft, some storm organization will
likely occur on Saturday. Convective coverage likely peaks
during the 4 PM-9 PM timeframe before gradually weakening
Saturday night. Once again, a few stronger tstms will be capable
of producing highly localized damaging wind gusts as it will
continue to be hot and humid. In fact, 100-105F heat indices are
forecast across southern VA/NE NC. The flash flood threat is
rather low for most of the area Saturday, but there could be
some hydro issues if convection coalesces over urban areas.
Convective coverage is expected to be a bit less on Sunday and
confined more to southern portions of the FA as the front begins
moving through the area and the low-level flow becomes N-NE
across northern portions of the FA. Dry and fairly pleasant
weather for the end of June is expected on Monday, with temps in
the mid-upper 80s and noticeably lower humidity as high
pressure builds toward the area from the NNE.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend is expected by the middle of
next week, with more significant heat possible by later in the
week. Shower/thunderstorm chances remain very low through
Wednesday.

Upper heights gradually rise from Tuesday-Wednesday as the
strong ridge builds E from the Mississippi River Valley. This
will lead to a warming trend, though storm chances will remain
very low with sfc high pressure remaining just offshore and no
forcing mechanism for convection. After seasonable temps
Tuesday, temps could rise well into the 90s by the middle to
latter portion of next week with heat indices climbing above
100F across a decent portion of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure was centered immediately offshore as of 18z. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail for the 25/18z TAF period.
This wind will mainly be SSW 5-10kt inland this aftn, with
seabreeze effects shifting the wind to ENE 8-10kt at ORF and SE
8-10kt at ECG. Otherwise, the wind should gradually become SSW
less than 10kt at all sites overnight, and then SSW 8-12kt
Friday. FEW-SCT CU will linger this aftn, with CI aloft
gradually thinning and pushing E. Mainly clear tonight/early
Friday.

Outlook: Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms develop
Friday afternoon and evening, with the best chc at RIC/SBY.
There is a better chc of showers/tstms on Saturday across the
entire area, and low-end shower/storm chances continue on Sunday
(mainly S/SE). Prevailing conditions will be VFR outside of
sub-VFR conditions in convection. VFR conditions are expected to
return by the beginning of next week as a cold front moves
south of the forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- South to southeast winds in the Chesapeake Bay increase
  around Small Craft Advisory criteria late this afternoon into
  late tonight.

- Thereafter, generally quiet marine conditions expected for
  the weekend, outside of any thunderstorm activity ahead of a
  cold front on Friday through Saturday night.

Latest analysis reveals 1020+mb surface high pressure has
become centered near Bermuda this afternoon. Light SSW winds
over the rivers and upper Chesapeake Bay, with afternoon
seabreeze now pushing winds SSE in the lower bay and nearshore
over the Atlantic coastal waters. Waves 1 ft or less in the Bay,
VA tidal rivers and Currituck Sound, and 2-3 ft in the coastal
waters, highest offshore of 20nm.

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for late this afternoon
and evening, as the pressure gradient briefly becomes a bit more
compressed with low pressure crossing well north of the local
waters. While it will be very marginal, will likely see a few
hours of SCA-level winds/gusts in the Bay. South winds of 10 to
20 kt will continue into Friday, with the strongest winds
remaining over the coastal waters. Winds then veer around to the
SW on Saturday 10-15 kt ahead of a cold front that drops south
across the waters Saturday night, which turning winds to the NNE
post-frontal Sunday into Sunday night. However, CAA will be
minimal behind this front, and accordingly expect winds to
remain below SCA thresholds at this time. Isolated thunderstorm
activity is possible on Friday, with more widespread showers and
storms possible Saturday with the frontal passage. Storms on
each of these days will likely require MWSs/SMWs issuances as
needed.

Seas throughout the weekend generally 1 ft or less in the Bay
and 3 feet or less over the coastal waters.

A low rip current risk will likely remain through Saturday,
with generally benign conditions currently forecast, the lack of
shore-normal flow, and shorter period waves. With flow turning
to a more shore-normal orientation Sunday, a Moderate Rip
Current Risk has been issued for Eastern Shore beaches Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...MAM/NB