Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

611
FXUS61 KAKQ 241739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
139 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated 18z aviation discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widely scattered showers (and potentially a storm)
develop this afternoon, especially east of I-95 and north of
I-64. Otherwise, another very warm day is expected, especially
west of the Chesapeake Bay.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday
night as a cold front and wave of low pressure move into the
region. Showers linger along the coast Sunday, along with cooler
conditions for the entire area. Dry weather makes a comeback
Monday.

3) There are several opportunities for rainfall next week as an
unsettled pattern potentially develops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widely scattered showers (and potentially a storm)
develop this afternoon, especially east of I-95 and north of
I-64. Otherwise, another very warm day is expected, especially
west of the Chesapeake Bay.

Early morning analysis places a backdoor cold front just NE of the
forecast area. Locally, temperatures are quite mild for April`s
standards, under a mostly clear sky and light south wind. The
backdoor cold front will slowly drop S/SW today, first pushing
through the Eastern Shore later this morning and then further inland
by the afternoon. Ahead of the boundary, temperatures are likely to
increase well into the 80s, before dropping later in the afternoon.
Temperatures warm in the 70s on the Eastern Shore this morning and
likely drop into the 60s by the afternoon.

Short-term convective-allowing models continue to depict widely
scattered showers in the vicinity of the front this afternoon.
This is where some moisture pooling and slightly higher dew
points should reside. The highest coverage is currently favored
along and just W of the Chesapeake Bay and especially in the
sector bounded E of I-95, N of I-64, and W of the Chesapeake
Bay. Here, PoPs are 30-40%. While instability is generally weak,
forecast soundings do show a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE
(generally between 700-500 mb, just above the deep boundary
layer) where those higher dew points likely reside. Thus, a
rumble or two of thunder, small hail, and gusty winds could also
occur. Severe wx, however, is not expected. Well inland, a very
deeply-mixed boundary layer will develop with high- based
cumulus around 8000-10000 ft. Therefore, think the showers shown
in the CAMs in these areas (mainly from I-95 and points W) are
likely overdone given the degree of dry air at the surface.
Rainfall amounts will be very low for those lucky enough to see
a shower or two, generally on the order of a trace to a few
hundredths.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday
night as a cold front and wave of low pressure move into the
region. Showers linger along the coast Sunday, along with cooler
conditions for the entire area. Dry weather makes a comeback
Monday.

Dry conditions are likely for most of the area through at least
Saturday morning. Rain chances increase substantially later in the
the day as low pressure tracks along an approaching cold front. A
few storms are also possible in the vicinity of the low and front,
but instability is quite meager. There have been a few notable
trends with the 00z model guidance this morning. First, the system
has trended slower, with most of the precip now favored in the
second half of the day and especially Saturday evening and Saturday
night. Second, most guidance now depicts a slightly deeper low
closer to the coast Sunday. This could cause wet and cool conditions
for most of the area Sunday with brisk N/NE flow off the water,
especially near the coast. Lastly, and perhaps most significantly,
an upward adjustment in QPF is now reflected in most deterministic
and ensemble guidance, including the NBM. Probabilities for 0.25" and
0.5" have increased two fold compared to this time yesterday. Any
convective enhancement would also favor higher totals and this
aligns well with the now ~10-30% probs for 1". Aerial QPF from
our forecast now depicts 0.5-1" for the entire area. Still, this
is far from a drought-buster given the substantial rainfall
deficits across our area. Quite a large range in temps Saturday,
with highs varying between the upper 80s in the far south and
as low as the mid 60s on the MD Eastern Shore.

As mentioned above, the delayed passage of this system will likely
allow showers, overcast skies, and breezy conditions to linger (at
least) near the coast Sunday. High temperatures range from the mid
50s to lower 60s. If clouds and onshore flow persist for most of the
day, there is some potential for temperatures to be lower than
currently forecast. The low pressure system in question pulls
further away from the coast Monday, with high pressure also nudging
down in the Mid-Atlantic. This favors dry wx and moderating temps.


KEY MESSAGE 3...There are several opportunities for rainfall next
week as an unsettled pattern potentially develops.

Troughing may develop over most of the CONUS by the middle the later
half of next week, with several fronts and disturbances passing
through. Therefore, there are several opportunities for beneficial
rainfall next week in the midst of this potentially unsettled
pattern and the latest CPC outlook favors slightly above average
rainfall in the 6-10 day period. Better late than never for
those April showers! Beyond the weekend, the next chance for
measurable rainfall occurs as early as Tuesday along a cold
front. Specifics beyond this time are uncertain but chance PoPs
are in place through most of the week. Temperatures generally
hover around average for mid-late Spring with variable
cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions are in place early this afternoon with a back
door front making slow westward progress across the eastern
third of the region. Some scattered showers and even a few
storms have started to develop to the west of the surface front
and could begin to impact the PHF and ORF over the next hour or
two. Due to isolated to widely scattered coverage, have
maintained PROB30 groups at all but ECG through late
afternoon/early evening. Winds are tricky this afternoon, not
only due to the front but also very dry low levels will result
in gusty/erratic winds in and around any convection that forms.
Showers come to an end this evening with decreasing clouds. Some
MVFR CIGs are likely at SBY late in the period.

Outlook: Low pressure tracks along the front Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night, bringing an increased chance of showers
and flight restrictions. High pressure builds to the N Sunday
with an onshore component to the wind persisting along the
coast, which could result in persistent lower CIGs. VFR and dry
conditions return by Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 140 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through
  tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected across
  the northern coastal waters on Saturday as easterly winds
  increase to around 20 kt.

- Solid SCA conditions expected Saturday night through Monday as
  low pressure deepens offshore. Gusts to Gale Force will be
  possible over the coastal waters Sunday into Sunday night.
  Gale Watches have been issued for all coastal waters north of
  the VA-NC border from Sunday morning through Sunday
  evening/Sunday night.

A backdoor cold front is crossing the waters this afternoon, with E-
NE winds of 10-15 kt over most of the waters (and lighter winds
south). Winds increase out of the E to near 10-15 kt by this evening
with gusts to 20 kt. The main concern through this evening is the
chance for isolated showers/tstms. While severe weather is unlikely,
the strongest storms could produce gusts of ~40 kt over the marine
area, necessitating SMWs. The threat for storms quickly diminishes
after sunset, with E-ESE winds around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt
expected for most of the night.

Low pressure begins developing along the front Saturday, with E
winds increasing to ~20 kt with gusts to 25 kt over the coastal
waters N of Cape Charles during the day. The highest winds will be
over the MD coastal waters. Sub-SCA SE winds are expected over the
southern coastal waters on Sat. The low pressure system deepens as
it pushes offshore late Saturday night and especially Sunday. This
will allow the front to move to the SE of the local waters. With the
increasing pressure gradient behind the front, N-NE winds are
expected to increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt by mid morning
on Sun, with a period of 25-30 kt winds possible over the coastal
waters (w/ gusts to 35-40 kt) from late Sunday morning through the
first part of Sunday night. Occasional gale force gusts are possible
on the bay (especially near the mouth of the bay) during this time.
Local wind probabilities for Gale Force Gusts (34 kt+) are roughly
50-70% across the waters N of the VA-NC border. As such, have issued
Gale Watches for all ocean zones out to 60nm from Sunday morning-
late Sunday evening for these zones (not including NE NC). Have also
issued a ramp up SCA starting Saturday for the northern two
nearshore coastal zones. Winds diminish a few knots Sun night-Mon as
the low pulls farther offshore, but solid SCA conditions with N-NE
winds appear likely through Monday for all waters. Sub-SCA winds
finally return on Tuesday.

Seas build to 3-4 ft S/5-6 ft N on Saturday, before building to 8-14
ft (highest 60nm offshore) by late Sunday. Waves on the bay
gradually build to 3-6 ft (highest at the mouth) by late Sunday.
Seas slowly diminish early next week, but 5 ft seas could persist
nearshore through Tue/Tue night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ650-652.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     ANZ650-652-680-682.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     ANZ654-656.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     ANZ684-686.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/SW
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI/MAM