Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

633
FXUS61 KAKQ 030641
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
241 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

The Slight Risk for severe wx was trimmed back to just north of
the NC border. Most of the area is still in the Slight Risk
area, but areas along and south of the NC border are now in a
Marginal Risk .

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions with heat indices
around 105F expected through the rest of the week. Heat Advisories
remain in effect for the entire area excluding eastern Currituck/OBX
and the MD Beaches.

2) There are daily chances for thunderstorms through Saturday. Some
storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds gusts and large
hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions with heat indices
around 105F expected through the rest of the week. Heat Advisories
remain in effect for the entire area excluding eastern Currituck/OBX
and the MD Beaches.

Records will be challenged today as this heat wave peaks. The
backdoor front draped along the coast will lift back to the north as
a warm front and the strong UL ridge will remain anchored just to
the west. Actual temperatures should max out in the upper 90s to
around 100 this afternoon with heat indices peaking between 105
and 108. Unlike yesterday, this includes coastal areas since
the sfc flow will return to the SW. Heat Advisories are already
in effect for inland portions of the area (extended from
yesterday) and advisories for the coastal zones (excluding OBX
and MD Beaches) go into effect at 11am. The ridge starts to
break down and a cold front will approach from the north going
into Friday, but heat advisories will likely need to be extended
for at least the southern half of the FA. Afternoon clouds and
storms ahead of the front will likely limit temps across the
north. "Limit" of course being a relative term since highs are
still expected to reach the low 90s. Meanwhile, southern
counties will have another day of near 100F temps and heat
indices over 105. There will finally be some relief from the
heat on the north side of the cold front over the weekend. Temps
on Sat are a bit uncertain given the early morning frontal
passage, but highs will generally be in the 80s with some
lingering 90s across the far south Sat.


KEY MESSAGE 2...There are daily chances for thunderstorms
through Saturday. Some storms may be strong to severe with damaging
winds gusts and large hail.

Another round of weak shortwaves traveling down the ridge will bring
another day of potential thunderstorms. Like the last couple of
days, there is low confidence in coverage and high confidence that
anything that does form could be severe. If storms are able to
initiate, it would likely be late afternoon for the far NE, then
progressing SE through the late evening hours. Once again, damaging
wind gusts are the main threat. The Day 1 SPC outlook did trim the
slight back to just above the NC border with a marginal risk for
along and south of the border.

The most favorable overlap of forcing, shear, and instability is
expected Friday. At the surface, the aforementioned front to our
north will finally make appreciable progress and descend into our
local area. Aloft, NW flow will remain in place and progressively
strengthen as the associated trough drops southward along the NE/Mid-
Atlantic coast, increasing the deep-layer shear. This all suggests a
legitimate severe wx threat for the majority of the area Friday,
with the potential for several fast-moving clusters capable of
widespread damaging winds, along with isolated supercells and large
hail. There is a slight risk for the entire area Friday.

The risk for storms (and any potential severe weather)
Saturday is dependent on where the front is situated during peak
heating. After the front moves through, the risk for severe weather
becomes negligible as a much drier airmass filters in across the
region through at least early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Developing fog and patchy low stratus are impacting the
terminals early this morning. So far, RIC and SBY are the only
ones to be impacted, but latest guidance suggests ORF and PHF
will be added to the list before sunrise. Vsbys and CIGs will
probably bounce around quite a bit between 06-11z with IFR or
LIFR possible at times. Restrictions are expected to linger the
longest at SBY, but should clear up around mid-morning. VFR
should then prevail through the remainder of the 06z TAF period.
Late evening thunderstorms are possible once again, but likely
wouldn`t reach terminals until after 00z.

Outlook: A stronger cold front is set to pass through the area
Friday night into Saturday. The front will likely trigger scattered
thunderstorms Thursday and Friday as it slowly sags southward. This
may cause flight restrictions and strong wind gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 AM EDT Thursday..

Key Messages:

- South to southwest winds increase today and tonight ahead of a
cold front. Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria, but there could be wind gusts ~15 knots at times
in the Chesapeake Bay and ~20 knots across the coastal waters.

- A cold front drops south over the waters Friday night into
Saturday morning. This will allow winds to turn northerly then
northeasterly as high pressure builds into the area. Wind gusts may
approach 20 knots late Friday night into Saturday. Weaker northeast
winds on Sunday and Monday.

Early this morning, a warm front is slowly lifting north across the
waters. Winds are generally light (~5 knots or less) and are out of
the S to SE. Seas average 2 to 3 feet, while waves in the Chesapeake
Bay average around 1 foot.

Today, high pressure will remain situated well offshore. Meanwhile,
a cold front will approach from the north/northwest. The pressure
gradient will gradually tighten, leading to an increasing S to SW
wind. By this evening and tonight, a few gusts of 15 to 20 knots
will be possible, with the strongest gusts across the southern half
of the coastal waters. Winds diminish later Thursday night into
Friday, with SW winds generally averaging 5 to 15 knots. The cold
front begins to drop south across the waters Friday night into
Saturday morning with winds turning to the N and eventually NE later
Saturday into Sunday. There will not be a strong pressure push
behind the front, but pressure rises and slightly cooler/drier air
filtering in over warmer waters will lead to the potential for gusts
of 15 to 20 knots Saturday. NE winds become breezy Sunday into
Sunday night, leading to the next potential for SCA conditions
across a majority of the waters. Calmer, more benign conditions look
to take hold for early next week as high pressure builds back over
the region.

Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances ramp up today, becoming
even more widespread on Friday. Any storms will have the potential
to be strong or severe with locally strong wind gusts, large hail,
and potentially a few waterspouts. Mariners should keep a close eye
on the forecast each day. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet through
Saturday, before building to 4 to 5 feet Sunday into Monday. Waves
in the Bay will average 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet on
Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No records were set on Wednesday, 9/2 at any of the climate sites.
Record highs are possible today (Thursday, 9/3) at Norfolk,
Richmond, and Elizabeth City.

Richmond:           Record High:

Thu (9/3)           99/1984
Fri (9/4)           98/2023

Norfolk:            Record High:

Thu (9/3)           97/1977
Fri (9/4)           96/1985

Salisbury:          Record High:

Thu (9/3)           99/1930
Fri (9/4)           95/1944

Elizabeth City:     Record High:

Thu (9/3)           97/2020
Fri (9/4)           98/1944

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ075>078-084>086-098>100-521>525-530-531.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-079>083-087>090-092-097-509>520-528-529.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/NB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...AJB