Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

667
FXUS61 KAKQ 081810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
210 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories issued for the middle and upper
Chesapeake Bay through late tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional chances for scattered light rain are possible Saturday
and later Sunday into Monday.

2) Seasonable temps Tuesday through Friday with another chance of
rain and potential storms Wednesday/early Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Additional chances for scattered light rain are
possible Saturday and later Sunday into Monday.

High pressure translates offshore late this afternoon into the
evening hours with continued dry and pleasant weather expected.
Temperatures warm into the mid and upper 70s on Saturday as surface
winds become SSW or SW. Mainly zonal flow aloft will bring weak
disturbances into the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Chance
PoPs (40% or less) during the afternoon will favor the eastern third
of the area. Some instability is noted on forecast soundings so a
few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out late Saturday, especially
for the MD Eastern Shore where CAM guidance shows the potential for
a few stronger convective cores. Sunday looks to stay dry with
temperatures rising into the mid 80s. Moisture increases
substantially Sunday night into early Monday with the potential for
more widespread rainfall on Monday. High temperatures tumble back
into the 60s and 70s (coolest N/warmest S) on Monday. Forecast
soundings show little to no instability with this wave so not
expecting to have any severe weather concerns.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temps Tuesday through Friday with another
chance of rain and potential storms Wednesday/early Thursday.

Latest guidance shows low pressure and an associated cold front
approaching Wednesday and crossing the region Thursday. Ahead of the
front, low level southerly flow will bring increasing moisture into
the area. Models are in general agreement showing this surface low
to our north and west, keeping the local area in the warm sector.
Showers and storms are possible Wednesday into early Thursday ahead
of the cold front. Guidance shows a decent overlap of enhanced winds
aloft and  some instability, so a few stronger storms are possible
during the this period. High temps mainly in the 70s with low in the
40s and 50s through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions in place this afternoon and are forecast to
prevail through the 18z TAF period. High pressure moving over
the region will result in mainly light and variable winds this
afternoon, becoming SE late afternoon and S tonight as the high
moves offshore. Winds turn from the SW on Saturday, mainly
10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Outlook: A quick moving system will bring a potential for a few
showers or storms Saturday, mainly along the coast. An area of
low pressure approaches the region Sunday into Monday, bringing
the potential for additional showers and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Primarily sub-SCA conditions prevail through this weekend,
  though elevated southerly winds develop tonight/Sat. SCAs
  have been issued for the bay north of New Point Comfort this
  evening-tonight and low- end/marginal SCAs are possible in the
  northern Ocean.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely Monday into Tuesday, with increasing
  N winds, as deepening low pressure moves offshore, followed
  by high pressure building in from the NW.

The latest wx analysis shows high pressure just offshore, leading to
light onshore flow across the local waters. The pressure gradient
increases this evening-tonight as the high shifts offshore. This
will allow winds to turn to the south and increase to 15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt. It appears increasingly likely that there will be a
short (4-6 hour) period of 15-20 kt winds on the bay (especially
north) between 6 PM and 4 AM. Guidance has come up by a couple of
knots with respect to wind speeds during this time, and the
afternoon wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds have increased to 60-
80% north of New Pt Comfort. Therefore, while it is marginal, have
issued an SCA for the northern two bay zones. Still, boundary layer
mixing will be poor over the waters given the WAA regime and there
will be a difference in wind speeds in elevated sensors vs. lower
level sites. A continued, elevated southerly flow could eventually
lead to ~5ft seas off the northern Ocean zones later Saturday, with
a potential SCA possible there. Mostly benign marine conditions are
then expected Saturday night and Sunday as the pressure gradient
weakens as high pressure returns. The better chance for a more
significant event arrives Monday into Tuesday, as low pressure
deepens while tracking along an advancing frontal boundary, and
continues to intensify offshore Mon night as the next area of high
pressure builds in from the NW Tuesday. Northerly winds are
anticipated, along with ample mixing, so SCA headlines are likely
for most, if not all of the marine area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ630-631.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI