Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

254
FXUS61 KAKQ 041044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
544 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 12Z aviation discussion.

Confidence in rain chances and QPF has increased late Thursday
into Friday, with 1-2+" possible across portions of the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and unseasonably warm conditions continue today.

2) Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected
Thursday night through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and unseasonably warm conditions continue
today.

Surface analysis shows the area of high pressure that has been in
control of our weather for the last several days now centered
offshore. It will be pushed further offshore throughout the day
today ahead of an approaching cold front, but the high will
extend back west enough to give us another dry and unseasonably
warm day today. Another round of patchy dense fog is occurring
as of this writing, especially along the Eastern Shore and
closer to the coast in SE VA/NE NC. Guidance tries to spread it
westward over the next few hours, so it could be a foggy morning
commute. The fog will quickly dissipate after 8/9am and give
way to a mostly sunny start to the day. With upper level ridging
overhead, temperatures will be able to warm a few more degrees
than yesterday. Highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper
70s, with the warmest spots being east of I-95. These
temperatures are 10-12 degrees above normal for early November.
Additionally, some light southerly breezes are likely this
afternoon. Cloud cover will start to move in from the west this
afternoon as the aforementioned cold front approaches the
western edge of the state. These clouds will keep overnight lows
rather mild, only dipping to around 60 degrees for most
everyone. Hi-res guidance is holding onto a low-end chance for a
few scattered showers for western locations overnight into
Thursday morning.

The first part of Thursday will be cloudy and mostly dry as we await
the arrival of the slow-moving cold front. Again, there could be an
isolated shower or two passing through during the day, but the
majority of us will stay dry until late. Southerly winds will keep
the warm temperatures around again, as highs top out in the mid to
upper 70s. There could even be a few 80 degree readings in SE VA and
NE NC. After a prolonged period of dry weather, dewpoints will rise
into the mid to upper 60s throughout the day, so this increase in
moisture will likely feel noticeable if you step outside. The dry
pattern will come to a temporary end Thursday night.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is
expected Thursday night through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
possible.

Confidence has increased as models have come into better agreement
regarding a period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall Thursday
night into Friday. The cold front will slowly move eastward as low
pressure strengthens over the Great Lakes. This will result in rain
developing across our western locations late Thursday
night/early Friday morning, then expanding east by daybreak.
Both the GFS and ECMWF depict a southwest to northeast axis of
enhanced QPF extending from south-central VA up to the MD
Eastern Shore. This locally heavy rain could be generally
stationary over the same locations for most of the day,
potentially dropping localized rainfall amounts of 2+".
Confidence in exactly where those maximums will occur keeps
shifting, but the possibility is definitely worth noting.
However, the 00Z ECMWF is noticeably more east with the heavier
rainfall than the GFS.

Regardless, anomalously high moisture will accompany this
system, with PWATs forecast to surge to 200%+ of normal for this
time of year. There is also a slight chance of embedded
thunderstorms on Friday, especially from mid/late morning through
the early afternoon hours ahead of the cold front. Guidance is
indicating 500-800 J/kg of MUCAPE alongside 40-50kt of shear during
this timeframe, which could further enhance the areas of
localized heavier rainfall due to the thunderstorms. The band of
rainfall will shift to coastal locations Friday evening before
the front moves offshore in the early morning, bringing the
rainfall to an end. Regarding high temperatures, the cloud cover
and persistent rain will keep most of the area from getting
above 70; however, if the rain doesn`t reach SE locations until
the afternoon, then they may see another day in the upper 70s.

A closed low pressure will drop into the northern Mid-
Atlantic/southern New England region on Saturday, reinforcing our
northwesterly flow. This will allow drier and cooler air to fill
into the area, dropping high temperatures back to more seasonable
values. Highs this weekend will be in the mid to upper 60s on
Saturday and low to mid 60s for Sunday. Overnight lows will drop
into the mid to upper 30s (low 40s by the coast) each night. We look
to remain seasonable and dry heading into the start of the new work
week. Big model differences return late Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 530 AM EST Wednesday...

Patchy dense fog continues across the area as of this writing. VIS
has been wildly up and down between MVFR and LIFR at most
terminals, so left TEMPOs in for possible brief VIS reductions
to 3/4SM through 13Z. Fog will then quickly dissipate giving
way to FEW250 skies. More clouds gradually build in from west to
east late this afternoon. Winds remain S 5-10 kt through the
period. Hi-res guidance shows a low-end chance of a light SHRA
overnight, but impacts would be minimal. Can`t totally rule out
patchy fog again Thursday morning.

Outlook: Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday, with
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms potentially resulting
in periods of sub-VFR conditions. Conditions improve Friday night
into Saturday, with VFR conditions generally anticipated for the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA winds prevail through the weekend despite a frontal
passage on Friday. The next potential solid SCA event is not until
early next week when a stronger front potentially crosses the waters.

Early morning weather analysis shows broad high pressure centered
well offshore, with low pressure tracking through the northern
plains. Benign, sub-SCA marine conditions prevail with light and
variable winds and 2-3 ft seas. Winds become SE at ~10 kt by late
today as that high moves farther offshore. As the low in the
northern plains moves eastward on Thursday, a cold front will
approach from the west. Winds become S and increase to 10-15 kt by
late Thu/Thu night as the pressure gradient increases slightly. S
winds of 10-15 kt persist on Friday. By late Friday/early Saturday
the cold front will have finally pushed through the area shifting
winds out of the NW. These northwesterly winds are progged to
persist through the weekend but are likely to remain a few knots
below SCA criteria on the bay. The only chance for SCAs appears to
be from Thu night-Fri across the ocean as seas may briefly reach 5
feet. Looking far into the extended (early next week) there are
hints of a stronger frontal system that could bring more solid SCA
conditions back to the waters. However, confidence is low at this
time on exact details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/JKP
AVIATION...RMM/JKP
MARINE...ERI