Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

802
FXUS61 KAKQ 110548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
148 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion. A Slight Risk for severe weather has been
introduced for areas north of I-64 and a Marginal risk remains
in place for areas north of route 58 on Wednesday. Confidence in
storm formation Wednesday afternoon/evening is still low, but
has increased slightly from this morning. A strong cold front
is still expected to cross the area Wed night into Thurs AM,
bringing additional showers and a change in airmass. A Gale
Watch has been issued for Thursday for the mouth of the
Chesapeake Bay, and the Ocean between Cape Charles and Currituck
Beach Light.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Record or near record warmth is expected again tomorrow.
There is a low chance for strong to severe storms Wednesday
afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-64.

2) A stronger cold front crosses the area Thursday morning-midday,
bringing the next chance for precipitation, along with a low-end
potential for some stronger storms during the first part of
Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather returns to end the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 329 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Record or near record warmth is expected again tomorrow.
There is a low chance for strong to severe storms Wednesday
afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-64.

Afternoon WX analysis shows primarily SW zonal flow aloft. While at
the surface, high pressure remains off the SE coast helping to
advect in warmer air across the area. Temperatures as of 2PM Tuesday
have warmed up into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area. In
addition to the warm temperatures, dew points have been able to
mix out through the day leading to RH values between 25 to 25%
inland and 35-45% along the coast. Luckily due to the weak
pressure gradient over the area allowing for light winds there
are minimal fire WX concerns for this afternoon. For tonight,
temperatures will continue to remain mild for this time of year
with lows falling down into the middle to upper 50s and low 60s.

Wednesday will be another warm day across the area as mostly sunny
and mostly dry conditions prevail. Highs Wednesday are expected to
approach the low to middle 80s inland. There is moderate to high
confidence that some of our climate sites may break their
record high temperatures. See the climate section below for
more information. Overnight lows will remain mild Wed night,
though an upper level trough and cold front will keep upper
level heights from rising Wed. While the best height falls and
stronger upper level dynamics from the approaching trough remain
to the west and north Wed, the warm temperatures and lower to
middle 60 dews will allow for 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop
by the mid to late afternoon. With the strong enough upper
level wind deep-layer shear (mainly speed shear) will also be
plentiful. Recent CAMS have now hinted on some showers/storm
development primarily across the north. This is most likely due
to the CAP potentially being slightly weaker to the north. While
across the south model soundings continue to show a stronger
CAP remaining in place. Due to the uncertainty in the CAP only a
chance POP (25-30%) remains across the north with a slight
chance of pops extending south. Nonetheless, given the
environment in place, a severe storm or two cannot be ruled out
if convection develops. The main threats would be damaging winds
and severe hail. However, a tornado cannot be ruled out due to
recent soundings showing 0-1km SRH around 100-150 m^2/s^2 of
SRH. While confidence in storm initiation is low, the setup Wed
afternoon/evening will continued to be monitored. The best chc
of a stronger storm would be north of I-64. SPC has expanded a
slight (Level 2/5) Risk to include all areas north of the I-64
border on Wednesday to account for this threat. While down south
a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk is extended from south of I-64 down
to Rt-58.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A stronger cold front crosses the area Thursday
morning-midday, bringing the next chance for precipitation,
along with a low-end potential for some stronger storms during
the first part of Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather
returns to end the week.

A strong upper level trough is expected to lift across the Gulf
coast Wed before moving into the Carolinas Thursday. Meanwhile to
the north, a dynamic northern stream trough is expected to lift
across the upper Midwest into northeast and SE Canada. A deepening
low pressure is progged to track from the Great Lakes vicinity to
Quebec Wed-Thurs AM. The potential sub-990mb northern low is
expected to drag a strong cold front through the local area Thursday
AM to midday. The precipitation associated with the front is
progged to fall behind the front with the best precip chances from
late morning-early evening) as that southern stream system tracks
just to our south. Temps will not drop much below 70F prior to the
FROPA Thu AM as winds veer from the S to SW.

Temperatures will likely warm a couple degrees across SE VA/NE NC
Thurs AM before the cold front moves through. With dew points
remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s and modest temps, some
destabilization is possible ahead of the frontal boundary (mainly in
areas that see a couple hours of daytime heating). Combined with the
strong low-level wind fields and the potential for a narrow
convective line of low-topped gusty showers, cannot rule out a few
strong to potentially severe (50 kt) wind gusts on Thursday with
that line. However, confidence in any severe weather is low at this
time. Behind the front temps are expected to drop from around 70F to
the 40s-50s very quickly. with a few hours worth of 30-35 mph gusts
likely across much of the area as winds become NW. With pressure
rises behind the front Thurs temperatures will fall through the day
and through the evening as as seasonably strong CAA ensues. Thus,
the high temperatures shown in the forecast are likely to be
achieved early in the day, with those falling temps as the day
proceeds. Precip should end well before any changeover to snow could
potentially occur.

Looking through the extended, seasonably cooler and dry weather
returns Friday, with highs dropping back into the 50s despite
plentiful sunshine. Milder conditions with temps approaching 70 F
are forecasted by the weekend as transient high pressure slides
over, also supporting continued mainly dry wx. Another low pressure
system and cold front brings a good chance of showers (with perhaps
an isolated tstm) to the area on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period.
There is a chance for some ground fog mainly at ECG between
10-12z, but operational impacts will be very limited.
Otherwise, S-SW winds will start to pick up by midday into the
early afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 kts expected through the
evening. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms (mainly at
SBY) between 22-03z, but convection most likely stays north and
west of the terminals. Confidence is too low to include thunder
in the TAF attm. A strong cold front approaches tonight and
crosses the terminals Thursday morning-midday. A period of LLWS
is likely at all terminals for a few hours before the front
arrives. Winds abruptly become NW following the FROPA with a
brief gusts to 30-35 kt possible. Rain continues for several
hours behind the front on Thu with MVFR to IFR conditions
likely.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Thursday night and persist into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected to persist through
  Wednesday morning.

- A strong cold front approaches late Wednesday and crosses the
  waters early Thursday. SCA conditions are likely both ahead of
  and behind the frontal passage, with chance for Gales post-
  frontal on Thu at the Mouth of the Bay and southern Ocean.

A weak sfc trough is located over the region this aftn, with
winds generally southerly at 10 kt or less, waves 1-2 ft and
seas ~2 ft. Strong low pressure continues to deepen across the
central CONUS, and this feature will lift ENE towards the Great
Lakes into Wednesday with the pressure gradient gradually
tightening by the late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. SCA
conditions are likely Wednesday night in strengthening SSW
flow. Cool near- shore waters will limit mixing but the synoptic
gradient will be quite strong. The front is progged to cross
the waters around sunrise Thursday across the N and a few hrs
later in the south, shifting the winds to the NW and then NNW
behind the boundary. With rapid pressure rises (model output
showing 6 hr rises forecast to be 9-12 mb), a period of stronger
winds will likely follow just behind the front. Gusts will
likely exceed 30-35 kt during this period, but only for 1-2 hrs
or less at most locations. Have decided to hoist a Gale Watch
for the Ocean S of Cape Charles, and the mouth of the Bay where
the chance for seeing at least a 3hr + period with gusts of 34kt
or greater is highest. The gradient begins to relax Thursday
afternoon and especially during the evening and overnight hours.

Seas will build to 4-6 ft N and 3-5 ft S in the pre- frontal SW
flow but should fall off quickly Thursday afternoon as flow
turns offshore, the exception being in the Gale Watch area of
the Ocean where seas may briefly build as high as 6-7 ft. Waves
in the Chesapeake Bay will increase to 2- 4 ft ahead of the
front and reach to 3-5 ft through much of Thursday during the
stronger NNW winds. Another system moves by well to the north on
Friday with potential for another period of SCA conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Record highs were set at ORF (83F), RIC (85F), and SBY (83F),
while the record high was tied at ECG (82F) today. Both record
highs and record high mins are likely for Wed 3/11.


- Record High Temps for 3/10 - 3/11

                 Record     Record
                High/Year  High/Year
Location          3/10       3/11
--------          ----      -----
Richmond        81 (2006)  82 (1990)
Norfolk         81 (2016)  82 (1990)
Salisbury       77 (2016)  76 (2000)
Eliz. City      82 (2016)  81 (2016)

- Record High Min Temps for Wed 3/11

Location        Rec High Min
  --------      ------------
- Richmond      56 (1955)
- Norfolk       62 (1925)
- Salisbury     51 (1955)
- Eliz. City    58 (1967)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for ANZ634.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/HET
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...LKB/RHR
CLIMATE...ERI/LKB