Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

700
FXUS61 KAKQ 130744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- Rain chances and rainfall amounts tonight have continued to
  trend down, especially for SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front brings a chance for showers and possibly a
rumble of thunder late today through tonight.

3) Cool Thursday, then warming up to above average temps for
the weekend into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings a chance for showers and possibly
a rumble of thunder late today through tonight.

Early morning WX analysis indicates zonal flow aloft with a
trough N of the Great Lakes. Sfc low pressure is located near
Lake Huron, and is starting to occlude, with sfc high pressure
well off the mid-Atlantic and Carolina coast. There is also an
area of low pressure across Florida. Southerly low level flow
has kept temperatures mostly in the 50s early this morning (much
warmer than 24 hrs ago when they were in the 30s and 40s). For
today, the upper trough is forecast to dive SE, with a cold
front approaching the local area from the west late in the day,
and crossing the region overnight into early Thursday. The
models continue to trend drier with the pattern over the next 24
hrs, perhaps being robbed of moisture from the sfc low ejecting
NE from Florida. Overall, expect a dry and breezy day today
under a mostly sunny sky through mid aftn, with increasing
clouds across the NW 1/2 of the area late. S winds are expected
to gust to 25-30 mph this aftn, highest across the eastern
shore. Instability is basically zero this aftn with dew pts
expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s. Highs today will mostly
be in the mid to upper 70s, with a few spots potentially
reaching 80F. The latest HRRR and most of the other models show
very limited potential for any tstms locally, but will maintain
a slight chc mention this evening for the NW portions of the
area to about the north 1/2 of metro RIC. This is likely to
just be a rumble of thunder if if does occur, and no severe or
even strong storms are expected. PoPs have been dropped to chc
(50% or lower) for roughly the Se 1/2 of the area, with 60-80%
PoPs this evening, lingering into early Thu AM focused across
the north. Even in these areas, only ~0.10" is expected, with
perhaps up to 0.25" if any briefly heavier showers. Of note, a
few of the models show a brief uptick in precip chances around
daybreak Thursday across the SE (associated with the shortwave
pushing through), but confidence in this precise scenario is low
so PoPs will only be 20-30% Thursday morning in the SE. LOws
overnight into Thursday will range from the upper 40s/around 50F
NW to the upper 50s SE.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool Thursday, then warming up to above average
temps for the weekend into the middle of next week.

Temperatures remain cool Thursday, as the upper low becomes
centered over the NE and mid- Atlantic region. Highs Thursday
will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal, generally in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Expect variable cloudiness, with some uptick
in aftn cloud cover likely due to daytime heating from the
strong May sun angle. Would not be surprised to see a few
sprinkles or isolated showers redevelop in the aftn. For now,
the models seem to focus this across the far SE where sfc dew
pts are a little higher, but this still could occur farther NW
as well.

Significant changes are on the way by the end of the week, after
a dry Friday with near normal temperatures for mid May. Decent
model agreement remains that a flat upper ridge over the
southern US starts to amplify and become anchored from the Gulf
coast to off the SE coast. Surface high pressure parked offshore
will allow southerly flow to prevail, leading to above normal
temperatures returning by the weekend, with highs in the mid-
upper 80s Sat, and then likely into the upper 80s to lower 90s
for much of the area Sunday (locally cooler on the eastern
shore and immediate coast). Some of the deterministic models do
show some chance for precip along a warm front Sunday, and the
latest NBM/blended guidance does have some slight chc PoPs for
this.  Current ensemble guidance shows a high probability for
highs into the 90s Mon-Tue, with dry conditions, and the
deterministic forecast has high 90-95F for most of the region.
This is reasonable given the pattern and the antecedent drought
conditions should make this rather easy to occur.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through most of the 06Z TAF period.
Mostly clear skies prevail through most of today, with
southerly winds 5-10 kt, increasing after 12-15Z to 10-15 kt
with gusts 20-25 kt, slightly higher at SBY where the gradient
will be tightest. Forecast soundings show at least some moisture
at the top of the mixed layer so FEW/SCT CU are expected as
heating gets underway, though this will be high based at 6-8k
ft. Any showers or isolated storms are forecast to remain north
and west of the terminals through 00z. Have included prevailing
showers late at RIC/SBY, a PROB30 group at PHF, while keeping
ORF/ECG dry for now. Only brief flight restrictions are expected
at RIC/SBy, probably with MVFR VSBYs in rain.


Outlook: Winds shift to the NW Thursday, with VFR conditions.
Dry and VFR conditions continue Fri-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the bay and Tidal
rivers. The bay is in effect now and last through tonight, while the
rivers go into effect this afternoon and last through this evening.

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for most of the
day Thursday, with another chance of advisories overnight Thursday
in the bay.

- Benign marine conditions are expected this weekend and into early
next week with primarily southerly winds.

Early morning weather analysis shows high pressure off the coast of
the Outer Banks. The pressure gradient from the high pressure and
approaching cold front remains weak over the area at this moment and
is only leading to winds out of the S around 10 to 15kt with some
gusts approaching 20kt. Seas at this time are between 1-2ft across
the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect now for the bay due to the marginal gusts up to 20kt.
However, expect conditions to worsen later today.

Through the day the pressure gradient is expected to tighten as the
cold front approaches the area. This will lead to stronger SSE early
this afternoon. Winds across the bay are expected to increase to 20-
25kt with gusts nearing 30kt. Across the tidal rivers winds increase
to 10-15kt with gusts nearing 20kt. Small Craft Advisories go into
effect for the tidal rivers early this afternoon. While across the
ocean winds will increase to 15-20kt with gusts nearing 25kt north
of Cape Charles. While south of the Capes winds are expected to be
between 10-15kt with gusts nearing 20kt. With the winds increasing
this afternoon waves will also increase to 3-4ft across the bay and
4 to potentially 5ft across the ocean. Will note the best chance for
5ft seas is north of Cape Charles. For this forecast update no SCA
have been issued for the ocean waters north of Cape Charles. This
is due to the the 25kt gusts and 5ft seas being marginal and for a
short period of time. By early tonight winds will decrease as the
cold front is pushing through the area and winds will shift to the
NW. Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight into Thursday.
However, there could be a brief period of SCA conditions across the
bay mid Thursday morning. Will note that these conditions will be
brief and the Sub-SCA conditions will last through much of Thursday.
The next best chance for solid SCA come Thursday night into Friday AM
across the bay as a second push of drier air moves into the area.
Winds could gusts between 20-25kt during this time period. After
Friday AM, mainly benign marine conditions are forecasted for with
winds primarily out of the S to SW.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     this evening for ANZ635>637-639.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...HET/KMC