Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

357
FXUS61 KAKQ 261952
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
352 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- Slight Severe Risk for Day 2 (Wed 5/27).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall are
expected into this evening.

2) There is a Slight Severe Risk Wed for much of the area (with
a Marginal elsewhere). In addition, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible area-wide.

3) Drier weather returns to end the week and likely continues
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy
rainfall are expected into this evening.

The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level ridge centered well
off the SE US coast over the subtropical western Atlantic, with
an upper trough extending from Texas through the lower Mississippi
Valley region. Between these features, a deep moist plume of moisture
extends from the Gulf up through the Deep South and eventually
rotates across the top of the ridge to the Mid- Atlantic. Locally
at the surface, a frontal boundary has dropped south since this
morning, and is nearly stationary this aftn along or a little
to the south of the I-64 corridor. Scattered showers and storms
have developed to the south of the front, with just spotty
showers to the north.

The mid level flow, currently westerly, is forecast to become
more W-SW later this evening and overnight, which will help the
front lift slowly back to the N. The 26/12z HREF continues to
show a modest signal for excessive rainfall across the Piedmont
In general, tonight`s heavy rain will be lower in coverage than
what occurred last evening, with the greatest threat for any
flash flooding being if the heavy rain falls concurrent with the
region of heavy rain last evening (this is the main reason for
the "Slight" ERO). While an isolated strong storm with gusty
winds up to 40 mph is possible this evening, the overall severe
threat is quite low given meager lapse rates and only modest
shear. Shear increase a bit overnight over northern areas, but
this will be when instability parameters wane. The higher PoPs
shift off to the NE after midnight as the front lifts NE. Areas
of fog will also be possible across NE portions of the CWA later
tonight, especially the MD eastern shore. Lows tonight in the
mid 60s NW to the lower 70s SE.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is a Slight Severe Risk Wed for much of the area
(with a Marginal elsewhere). In addition, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible area-wide.

Other than some lingering showers in the NE, Wednesday should
see a mostly dry period in the morning/early aftn, with higher
PoPs late in the day into the evening. This timing allows for
increased instability, steep low level lapse rates, and
somewhat drier air aloft in advance of an approaching cold
front. SPC has upgraded most of VA/MD zones into a Day 2 Slight
Risk, with 15% probs for damaging winds as the primary threat.
The compressed H7-H5 heights will allow for moderately strong
W winds aloft, increasing 0-6km bulk shear to 30-40kt.
Instability should be ample, with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
could leading to more organized storm clusters. Additionally,
heavy rain will remain a threat as PW values remain 1.75"-2.00".
highs Wednesday range from the low-mid 80s N, to the upper
80s/near 90F SE. The general timing for the greatest SVR threat
will be 3pm-10pm.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier weather returns to end the week and
likely continues through the upcoming weekend.

The cold front arrives from the north later Wednesday night,
and gradually pushes south of the area early Thursday as a
trough digs out of Eastern Canada into the Northeast CONUS. High
chc to likely PoPs linger into Wednesday evening (highest E/SE)
in advance of the front, but after that an influx of drier air
should shut off precip chances into Thursday. Undercut NBM PoPs
a bit on Thursday (still maintaining chc PoPs in the far south
into the aftn). PoPs are mainly 20% or less elsewhere Thursday,
Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny and less humid but due to a
well mixed BL, forecast high temperatures remain in the low-mid
80s Thursday. Friday will be mild and dry as high pressure
settles from the Great Lakes to the local area with highs in the
upper 70s to around 80 F inland, and in the mid 70s for coastal
areas, after a pleasant morning with lows in the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

By this weekend, another trough digs out of Canada and pushes
another cold front south across the Mid-Atlantic. However, the
latest trends are for a stronger northern stream, which
suppresses the moisture S. 26/12z EPS/GEFS each depict PW
values remaining below normal through the weekend, and even into
early next week. For now, NBM PoPs are 20% or less through the
weekend. Temperatures will be near to a little below normal
overall from Sat-Mon, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and
lows mainly in the 50s. Overall, quite pleasant for the end of
May into the beginning of June.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

A stationary front is lingering in the vicinity of RIC-PHF-ORF
(actually a bit to the south) to start the TAFs. MVFR to VFR
conditions are prevailing, with localized IFR VSBYs in heavy
downpours. Showers/tstms with heavy rain will tend to lift north
over the next few hrs and persist into the evening bringing
localized IFR VSBYs in heavy downpours. The coverage is not
expected to be to the level of what occurred yesterday however.
Additional IFR cigs are likely to develop tonight from RIC to
SBY as the stationary front is slow to lift farther NE.

Outlook: Conditions remain unsettled Wednesday aftn/evening as
showers/tstms develop during the aftn and evening. A more
significant cold front pushes through late Wednesday night
night/Thursday, with drier air, N winds and VFR conditions
Thursday through Friday. Another cold front arrives by Saturday,
but most guidance depicts this as a dry frontal passage with
increased northerly winds and VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 256 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Marine dense fog remains a concern again tonight,
  particularly north of Cape Charles on the ocean.

- Sub-SCA winds and seas prevail through most of this week.
Thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds and waves today and
Wednesday.

A front is currently draped across SE VA, and light and variable
winds are being observed north of the front, though are few sites in
the lower Bay are measuring  easterly winds at 5-10 kts. Meanwhile,
west to southwest winds of 5-10 kts are being observed south of the
boundary. Seas of are 2-3 ft across the coastal waters, while waves
in the Bay are measuring 1 ft or less. Storms have developed
across southern VA and will start to move across the local
waters over the next few hours. Locally higher winds and seas
are possible within and near these storms through the evening.
While some patchy fog across the northern coastal waters is
still in place, have decided to drop the Marine Dense Fog
Advisory for now. As the front lifts back northward tonight, we
could see redevelopment of marine fog. Our current visibility
forecast is depicting widespread 1-1.5 statute mile visibility
overnight in the waters north of Cape Charles, with a few areas
briefly dropping below 1 SM. Additional marine DFA may be
required tonight. Winds will gradually shift to the S and SW
overnight into Wednesday as the front lifts back to the north.
Winds tomorrow will likely be a little stronger ahead of the
front, but will remain at or below 10-15 kts. Seas will average
2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay during this time.
Additional stronger storms are possible tomorrow
afternoon/evening, which will once again cause locally higher
winds and seas.

A stronger cold front will drop southward across the area early
Thursday, with the wind becoming northerly. While a brief surge in
northerly winds is possible along and just behind the front late
Thursday morning, conditions should mostly stay sub-SCA. Current in-
house wind probs remain very low (<10%) in regards to 18kt gusts
across the Bay and 25kt gusts across the coastal waters. High
pressure will build in from NW Friday with light winds. A stronger
system could bring a period of N/NE winds this weekend, with
gradually building seas and potential SCAs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...SW/NB