Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

863
FXUS61 KAKQ 071936
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
236 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonably cool this weekend through the middle of next
week.

2) The weather pattern potentially becomes more amplified later
next week with low-end rain chances returning follow by a brief
surge of colder air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably cool this weekend through the middle of next
week.

An upper low remains centered over the eastern Great Lakes this
afternoon. Surface high pressure over central US is slowly pushing
towards the area over the next few days. Cold air advection behind
yesterday`s cold front has pushed temperatures back to near normal
with temperatures currently in the lower 60s. High temperatures
Sunday will be similar in the lower to mid 60s. There will be a
slight warm up Mon thru Wed as high pressure centers over the area
with highs in the upper 60s to near 70F. Dry weather continues with
mostly sunny skies through at least mid week.

Low temperatures late tonight/early Sunday morning will be in the
mid to upper 30s inland and lower/mid 40s along the coast. Patchy
frost is possible, particularly in the Piedmont and counties that
have already ended their growing season, but there could be some
frost into interior portions of S-central VA and NE NC as well.
Given dewpoints expected in the mid 30s, light NW winds, and some
cloud cover over the southern half of the area overnight, have
raised low temperatures up to 5 degrees across the area. Based on
model ensembles and hi-res guidance, the NBM low temperatures are an
outlier. With this, no frost advisories have been issued for
counties where the growing season continues.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The weather pattern potentially becomes more
amplified later next week with low-end rain chances returning
followed by a brief surge of colder air.

The 12z/07 EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all continue to depict an anomalous
500mb trough developing across the southeast and Mid-Atlantic by
Thurs-Fri of next week. Low-end rain chances return later
Thursday/Thursday night with the potential for developing low
pressure ahead of the deepening trough. Confidence in details at
this forecast range is low, but the GEFS and EPS show a 40-80%
chance of at least 0.01" of rain with the highest chances in the N
and a 10-20% chance of at least 0.5" of rain. A surge of colder air
follows with below average temperatures favored by Friday-Saturday
of next week. With this trend, there is a chance this could end
the growing season for the remaining areas.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/07 TAF period. Clear skies
are over the vast majority of the area this afternoon as high
pressure builds towards the region. Breezy NNW conditions with
sustained winds around 8-12 kt (with gusts to ~20 kt at SBY/ORF)
continue through the afternoon. Winds will decrease to ~5 kt this
evening and overnight. Winds will begin shifting out of the W Sunday
morning. FEW-SCT high clouds will build into the area tonight before
clearing out after sunrise with no impacts to flight restrictions.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue Sunday into the
middle of next week. Some additional weak/dry cool air advection
will bring gusty NW breezes on Sunday, mainly across the Eastern
Shore. Some additional periods of breezy NNW winds with weak cold
frontal passages are expected early Monday and again on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Another period of elevated NW flow is expected tonight into
  Sunday morning. Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Ches.
  Bay and nearshore coastal waters.

- Additional advisories likely needed Monday across northern
  waters.

Sfc high pressure centered over the Mississippi River valley is
building west into the local region behind yesterday`s cold
front. Aloft, strong low pressure is situated over New England
with the attending trough dipping down the east coast. As a
result, cooler and drier air has been advecting into the local
area since last night. The initial surge of winds has diminished
some with latest obs showing NW winds of 10-15kt over most
marine zones, though 15- 20kt lingers across the upper bay and
northern coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
for the middle/upper bay and the nearshore coastal waters to
cover these winds and seas up to 5ft. Another surge in winds
across the entire bay and coastal waters is expected overnight
as the trough axis aloft pivots through the region. NW winds
will pick back up to 15-20kt with gusts up to 30kt possible
(~15kt, gusts to 20kt in the rivers). The existing SCAs already
extend through tomorrow morning and the lower bay was added for
the overnight period as well. Winds shift to the W then SW
tomorrow and diminish to 10-15kt across all marine zones. This
will allow seas to fall back to 3-4ft as well, so a break from
advisories is expected for Sunday afternoon and evening. Another
cold front slides across the Mid-Atlantic on Monday turning
winds back to the NW. This front doesn`t look quite as strong as
yesterday`s, but will be enough for winds to build back to
15-20kt for waters north of New Point Comfort and Cape Charles.
Additional advisories are likely for at least the northern bay
zones Monday. Conditions then look to be sub- advisory through
Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630-631-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ632-634.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...AC