Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

589
FXUS61 KAKQ 100005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
705 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00z Aviation/TAF update.

Marine...Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled.

Frost Advisory issued for tonight in portions of
interior southeast VA and NE NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Frost Advisory in effect tonight for south-
central VA and interior portions of southeast VA and northeast NC.
Dry and seasonably mild otherwise through mid-week.

2)A strong cold front brings chances for rain
Thursday-Friday, but chances for appreciable rain is low. Much
cooler temperatures follow behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 AM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost Advisory in effect tonight for south-
central VA and interior portions of southeast VA and northeast NC.
Dry and seasonably mild otherwise through mid-week.

A dry cold front passed through the area earlier today and high
pressure is building back in behind it. Latest obs show wind
gusts 20-25mph west of the bay and 30mph+ over the Eastern
Shore. Winds are forecast to quickly diminish after sunset
becoming calm or near calm by 7pm. From there, temperatures
should quickly drop off as clear skies and little to no wind
provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Keeping this
in mind, the forecast overnight lows undercut most of the
guidance, since most models do not capture decoupling well
enough. The FA is looking at lows in the mid 30s for most of the
area and around 40 immediately near the coast. Would not be
surprised if a few of the more isolated, rural locations were to
drop to freezing. Frost is likely for interior portions of the
area. The growing season has already ended for the western
piedmont counties, so no advisory is needed there. Frost
Advisories have been issued, though, for interior portions of
southeast VA and northeast NC. Conditions on Tuesday and
Wednesday look fairly nice with mild temperatures for mid-
November. Highs will be around 70 each day.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for rain
Thursday-Friday, but chances for appreciable rain is low. Much
cooler temperatures follow behind the front.

Guidance continues to signal an anomalously strong 500mb trough
digging in over the east coast Thursday into the weekend. While
there is some uncertainty in the positions of the upper level
low and the positioning/track of associated sfc low pressure(s),
there is confidence in the UL trough itself dipping as far
south as the Gulf. Regarding sfc systems, the 12z suite of
global models are leaning toward low pressure diving ESE out of
the lower Great Lakes before developing a secondary low
offshore. That kind of set up is likely to put the local area in
the dry slot. This is corroborated by the QPF probs from the
ensembles, which universally limit appreciable rainfall to our
northern counties. Probs for QPF >0.1" are 50-60% along and
north of I-64 at best. Probs for >0.5" are under 20% everywhere.
What precip we do get should move in by Thursday afternoon and
potentially continue through Friday along the coast. Highs
Friday-Sunday will be a lot cooler with highs in the upper 40s
and low 50s. Gusty conditions will keep apparent temperatures
even lower. Overnight lows near or below freezing will be
possible each night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 705 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions across area terminals this evening will prevail
through the 00z/10 TAF period. Mainly clear with light/variable
winds overnight and much of Tuesday morning become SW winds of
5-10kt for the late morning and afternoon, with occasional gusts
to 15 kt at KRIC.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
middle of the week. Another cold front approaches from the west,
with rain showers possible by later Thursday and Friday. Some
short-lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal
passage, along with some strong NW winds and markedly cooler
conditions forecast behind the front for Friday and the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 654 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Calmer marine conditions return tonight and continue through
 Thursday.

- Strong NW winds and elevated seas are possible by Friday into
  the weekend in the wake of a strong cold front, but
  confidence in details remains low.

High pressure continues to nudge east this evening thus allowing
the winds to become WNW ~5-10 kt. With the winds decreasing seas
have rapidly lowered to 1-2ft across the bay and 2-4ft across
the waters. These newest observations have allowed for the
Small Craft Advisories to be canceled early for the bay and
coastal waters.

High pressure builds into the region tonight through Wednesday,
before moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub-SCA
conditions are expected during this timeframe. There is a secondary
weak, dry cold front that crosses the coast Tuesday night. A WSW
wind increases to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean ahead of
this boundary Tuesday aftn and early evening, becoming N behind the
front later Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. High
pressure becomes centered over the area Wednesday with the wind
becoming light and variable. Thursday, the winds become S-SW, as the
high move offshore, with speeds around 10 kt. Seas subside to 2-3ft
nearshore and 3-4ft offshore by Tuesday, and then 2-3ft for most of
the local Atlantic zones by midweek. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be
1 to occasionally 2ft Tuesday through midweek.

A low pressure system and a strong cold front will push across the
region and move offshore Thursday night into Friday. This system
will bring strong CAA over an extended period, which will allow for
well mixing over the warmer water temperatures. Strong SCA
conditions are likely with gale conditions possible. The latest
model ensembles continue to show different possibilities for next
weekend. The EPS members continue to show a secondary low pressure
deepening immediately off the coast Friday night and pushing
offshore Saturday, with 50-70% probs for gale forced gusts.
Meanwhile, the GEFS does not show this solution and only a <10% of
gale forced gusts. Local wind probs are currently showing a 30-50%
chc of 34 kt gusts in the coastal waters, 50-70% chc in the ocean
waters beyond 20 nm, and 10-30% chc in the Ches. Bay. Seas
potentially build to 5-7ft in the coastal waters and 7-9ft beyond
20nm.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ012>014-
     030.
VA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ079>081-
     087>089-092-528-529.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC/MAM
MARINE...AJZ/HET/KMC