Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

585
FXUS61 KAKQ 190527
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1227 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisories continue for the Northern Neck,
western portions of the Middle Peninsula, and MD Eastern Shore.
1" to locally 2" is forecast in the advisory area, with 0.5-1"
elsewhere, and lower amounts in far SE VA/NE NC. Uncertainty
continues to remain higher than normal given marginal
temperature conditions which could limit accumulations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Confidence is moderate-high in portions of the area
seeing some wet snow today, with the most likely timing for snow
from 3-8 PM. 1" to locally 2" is expected across the VA Northern
Neck and MD Eastern Shore, where Winter Weather Advisories are in
effect. 0.5-1" is expected elsewhere, with lesser amounts for
southside Hampton Roads and coastal NE NC. However, uncertainty
remains due to marginal surface temperatures.

2) A strong push of Arctic air arrives on Monday and
especially Monday night behind a secondary dry cold front, with
below average temperatures to continue through the first half of
the week.

3) Another storm system may impact the area next weekend, but it is
way too early for specifics at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Confidence is moderate-high in portions of the area
seeing some wet snow today, with the most likely timing for snow
from 3-8 PM. 1" to locally 2" is expected across the VA Northern
Neck and MD Eastern Shore, where Winter Weather Advisories are in
effect. 0.5-1" is expected elsewhere, with lesser amounts for
southside Hampton Roads and coastal NE NC. However, uncertainty
remains due to marginal surface temperatures.

A fast moving shortwave at the base of an upper trough
(currently in the western Carolinas as of 2 PM this afternoon)
is forecast to strengthen as it takes on a slight negative tilt
just before it crosses the area between 4-7 PM. At the surface,
low pressure off the Carolina coast deepens while tracking NE
through today before exiting well to the NE tonight. Steady rain
continues across much of the area, and we have started to see
temperatures and dew pts drop a few degrees as weak CAA ensues
from the NNW. Precipitation will peak in intensity later this
afternoon before quickly ending between 5-8 PM after the
shortwave pushes through. Mesoanalysis shows that 925-850mb
temps are between - 1 and -3C. Still, precip is rain as a
melting layer around 1000-1500 ft AGL is still evident on both
the AKQ and RAX radars. Precip has changed to snow to our SW at
GSO/INT (near the back edge of the precip). As has been
mentioned before, the key to whether precip can change over to
snow will be the thermal profiles in the lowest 1000- 1500 ft
AGL. If it can drop to 32-33F for a few hours due to wet-
bulb/column cooling effects, then a period of accumulating snow
is likely (mainly on grassy/elevated surfaces). On the other
hand, if it doesn`t drop below 34-36F, precip will remain
predominantly rain with perhaps a brief period of snow at the
tail end of the precip during the early evening. Additionally,
snow will be more likely where precip rates are heavier. The 12z
guidance has trended toward the latter scenario (less snow)
with only 1-3 hours of snow possible as the precip ends across
the Piedmont, central VA, the northern neck, and eastern shore.
The cold air likely doesn`t arrive in time for any snow accums
across southside Hampton Roads and NE NC, but am expecting at
least a light coating elsewhere. As such, will keep at least
0.5" of snow in the forecast in most areas aside from SE VA/NE
NC. The best chance for 1-2" is from the Northern Neck onto the
Eastern Shore, coinciding with the best overlap of dynamic
cooling effects and mid-level frontogenesis. Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect for these areas, in addition to
western portions of the Middle Peninsula.

Regardless of any headlines, would expect any accums to be mostly
confined to grassy and elevated surfaces and not roadways. We could
see accums on roadways if it snows hard enough for a couple of
hours, though not that confident in this. A reasonable worse case
scenario would be 2" for most of the area with 1" for SE VA and NE
NC, mainly if precip intensity can overcome marginal sfc temps.
Colder and drier air arrives from NW-SE this evening bringing a
rapid end to the precip. Will also have to monitor for any freezing
of residual wet/slushy surfaces tonight.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong push of Arctic air arrives on Monday and
especially Monday night behind a secondary dry cold front, with
below average temperatures to continue through the first half of
the week.

Arctic air arrives Monday night behind a secondary cold front. Very
cold temperatures are expected from Monday through Wednesday, with
the coldest air occurring Monday night, Tuesday, and into early
Wednesday morning. EPS/GEFS continue to show 2m temperature
anomalies 15F to nearly 20F degrees below average. Overnight lows in
the upper teens to mid 20s are expected Sunday night, and primarily
teens Monday/Tuesday night. While it will be very cold Monday and
Tuesday nights, the wind looks to be low enough for wind chills to
be around 5-10F above Cold Weather Advisory criteria. The best
chance of seeing wind chills meeting criteria is on the Eastern
Shore Monday night. While day-time temps will be rather chilly each
day Monday through Wednesday, Tuesday is forecast to be the coldest
day with highs struggling to make it above freezing north of I-64.

Temperatures may attempt to moderate a bit by the middle and end of
the week as the upper flow turns more zonal. However, daily highs
still look to be slightly below normal. While it also looks mainly
dry, a series of fronts toward the end of the week could bring
sporadic/light precip.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Another storm system may impact the area next
weekend, but it is way too early for specifics at this time.

Despite the slight moderating trend is expected late this week,
Arctic air is expected to remain entrenched across north and
northeast portions of the CONUS through late week into next weekend.
The flow aloft largely remains zonal but very strong (~1050mb)
Arctic high pressure is progged to build into the north-central
CONUS by next Saturday. A couple of fast moving shortwaves may track
over the area next Sat and or Sun, which could bring chances for
more widespread precip. There is ensemble support from the GEFS,
EPS, CMCE, and the AI ensembles for wintry wx across a decent
portion of our area, which seem reasonable given the strong supply
of cold air to our N. Ultimately, exact precip types will be highly
dependent on impossible-to-resolve (at this range) storm tracks.
Will continue to monitor over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1225 AM EST Monday...

Lingering MVFR at ECG will improve to VFR over the next few
hours. Otherwise, any residual clouds will continue to clear
this morning. SKC conditions prevail later today into tonight with
gusty WSW winds (to 20 kt) developing this afternoon. Winds
shift back to the NW tonight as a secondary (dry) cold front
drops through.

Outlook: Dry/VFR Monday morning through Wednesday. A cold front
potentially crosses the area Thursday with only a 20% chance of
showers at this time. Low-end precip chances continue into
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and
coastal waters this afternoon into tonight due to the potential for
20 to 25 knot wind gusts.

- Another round of SCAs is possible Monday night into Tuesday as
another cold front crosses the waters.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a weak low pressure system just off
the coast of Virginia. The pressure gradient from this system
continues to remain weak and winds are light out of the north
between 5 to 10 kt with gusts upwards of 15 kt. Latest buoy obs are
showing low seas with waves around 1 ft in the bay and 2 to 3 ft
across the ocean. Through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight
the low pressure will strengthen causing the pressure gradient to
tighten. This will allow for winds to increase across the waters.
Winds increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts upwards of 25 kt with
possible gusts upwards of 30 kt across the coastal waters. With the
increase in winds waves will also increase to 2 to 3 ft across the
bay and 3 to 5 ft across the waters. Small Craft Advisories have
been issued for the bay, sound, and coastal waters lasting starting
from 4pm and lasting through 1am tonight. The rivers will remain
just shy of criteria however, a brief 20 kt gust cannot be ruled
out. Early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon there will
be a lull in the winds as the low pressure moves further off the
coast and the pressure gradient weakens. Winds will shift to the SW
and will be between 10 to 15 kt. By Monday afternoon, Winds will
increase and remain out of the SW as a strong cold front approaches.
Local wind probs have increased to 90%+ for gusts >= 18 kt gust and
80-90% of gusts >=25 kt across the northern 3 ocean zones. With the
strong pressure gradient expected and high wind probs additional SCA
will likely be needed for Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.
Generally benign, sub-SCA, conditions take hold through the midweek
timeframe before another system potentially approaches next
weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB/HET