Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

930
FXUS61 KAKQ 162333
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
733 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for 00z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A slight chance for showers across the far north tonight.

2) Well above normal temperatures Sunday through Wednesday. A
small chance for showers/storms across central VA Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, little appreciable rainfall is expected
until at least Wednesday night or later.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday

KEY MESSAGE 1...A slight chance for showers across the far
north tonight.

Latest guidance suggests that a few showers may move eastward
tonight across the far north in response to a weakening short
wave. The 12z CAMS suggest the best chance for this activity
will stay north of the area, however there is enough support
from the CAMS keep slight chance PoPs across the far north into
the MD eastern shore tonight. Rainfall, if any, will not amount
to much due the very dry air aloft.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well above normal temperatures Sunday-Wednesday.
A small chance for showers/storms across central VA Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, little appreciable rainfall is expected until
at least Wednesday night or later.

Big story through Wednesday will be the summer-like high
temperatures each day. Sunday will be the start of widespread
temperatures in the 90s. Areas west of I-95 have the best chance at
reaching the low 90s Sunday with the multi-model ensemble showing a
65-85% prob of 90 or greater, the coastal areas likely staying a few
degrees cooler. The REFS and NBM suggest some isolated convective
development Sunday afternoon over central Virginia given the MLCAPE
values of nearly 1000 j/kg. However, given the building heights
across the region, the atmosphere may remain capped through the
afternoon. Nonetheless, the lee trough may be just enough for an
isolated storm on Sunday afternoon and have maintained the slight
chance PoPs from the NBM on Sunday afternoon.

Otherwise, the remainder of the week through Wednesday looks dry and
hot. Ensemble guidance suggests broad support for widespread
temperatures in the low to mid 90s each day through Wednesday as
850mb temps are around 18C. There is overall a very low 1-3 deg
interquartile range for MaxT each day so confidence is high in these
temperatures each day. Fortunately, while it will be quite hot, dew
points will struggle to rise out of the low 60s each day so heat
index values will not be much different than the actual temperature.
In fact, the NBM essentially has a 0% probability of heat index
values rising to 100 or greater next week.

The pattern turns more unsettled Thursday through the weekend. A
cold front looks to cross through the region Thursday, then
potentially get hung up near the coast with low pressure developing
along it. At this time, the showers/storms a forecast to be most
widespread Thurs afternoon through late evening. Areas south of I-64
seem to have the best chance of "higher" rainfall amounts, but the
LREF prob of >0.5" of rain is still only 50-60%. Multiple rounds of
precip will then be possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/17 TAF period. Some mid and
high level clouds are moving across the region. High pressure
has moved offshore with winds across the terminals mainly S or
SW around 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. Expect winds to decrease a
bit with the loss of heating this evening but should stay in the
5-10 kt range overnight. Winds inland with largely stay SW
through Sunday but expect some onshore winds from sea breeze
effects at ORF by the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show
some moisture around 5000 ft by the afternoon so expect FEW/SCT
CU. Some instability is also noted so a shower or storm is not
out of the question but confidence is far too low to mention in
the TAF.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected through early next week as high
pressure remains in control. South winds each afternoon may
gust to 10-20kt as high pressure remains stationary off the
coast. Next chance of rain not expected until late Wed or
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected over the rivers,
  Currituck Sound and the Chesapeake Bay through the weekend
  and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.

- Building seas could result in a brief SCA over the nearshore
  Atlantic coastal waters tonight into early Sunday morning.

Winds have increased some this afternoon as expected with 10 to
15 kt over the Bay and 15 to 20 kt over the coastal waters. Seas
have persisted around 2 to 3 ft along and off the coast even
out to 60 nm, though expect some 4 to 5 ft occasional wave
heights well offshore.

S/SW winds may increase a few more kt late this afternoon and
early evening as suggested by some of the guidance and have
accounted for this in the forecast. Winds still look generally
sub-SCA criteria though some gusts to near 20 kt are possible
on the Bay briefly and 25 kt on the coastal waters. Any winds to
this level should be brief.

Seas offshore should peak late this evening and early Sunday
morning. The easterly swell of 2 to 3 ft today will decease
with mostly a wind wave of 4 ft Sunday with a 1 ft easterly
swell. The highest seas overnight will be north of Cape
Charles. A short- fused SCA remains in effect for this evening
for the far southern coastal waters, and a slightly longer SCA
was issued for tonight/overnight through early Sunday morning
for nearshore coastal waters north of the VA/NC border. It is
still questionable if seas will reach 5 ft, but will hold onto
the SCA for now. Seas will gradually diminish Sunday morning,
remaining 2-4 ft through early next week.

Sunday into early next week, high pressure settles into typical
summertime Bermuda High configuration for Sunday into the
middle of next week. Winds remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt
outside of the daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze.
The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized
gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore
ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and
diminish through the overnight. Expect generally benign marine
conditions to prevail through midweek.

The next cold front looks to cross the waters some time early
Thursday morning with increasing NE winds for the later portion
of the nest week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/MRD
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM/JAO