Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

164
FXUS61 KAKQ 070013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
713 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00z TAF/Aviation update

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected
today, with a few thunderstorms possible.

2) Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall
is expected today, with a few thunderstorms possible.

A potent upper-level low digs across the Great Lake region, slowly
moving northeasterly and dragging a cold front through most of
the area this afternoon with widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms and heavier rainfall rates have
situated over SE VA/NE NC and the lower Eastern Shore. Rainfall
rates have been very efficient today with multiple localized
areas seeing rainfall totals of ~2-3" and a widespread ~0.5-1"
across most of the area. PWAT values are conducive of the heavy
rainfall with values of ~1.5-1.8" in the southeast, dropping to
around 1" in the piedmont behind the front. Storms continue to
train over SE VA on top of the ~2-4" already received today,
resulting in localized 4-6" totals. A Flood Watch has been
issued and will remain in effect for SE VA/NE NC through 8 PM
tonight. The greatest flood threat will be in urban locations as
the flood threat will be limited in rural areas due to ongoing
drought and low streamflow. Heavy rainfall and localized
flooding is the primary threat, but cannot rule out a stronger
storm in NE NC. MLCAPE values are only ~500 J/kg based on the
latest mesoanalysis analysis, but this could lead to a brief
strong wind gust with any strong storm. SPC has included NE NC
in a small Slight Risk, but it appears that the threat is mostly
concentrated south of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this
weekend into early next week.

Behind the cold front, high pressure will build into the area.
Northwesterly flow will return as the closed low pressure driving
the front moves over the Northeast CONUS. Much cooler and drier air
is forecasted to advect into the area, with high temperatures
settling back to seasonal averages. High temperatures this weekend
will be in the low to mid 60s, rising to the mid to upper 60s early
next week, with potential for ~70F on Tuesday for a large portion of
the area. Tonight`s lows will be moderate compared to the next
coming days with lows in the 40s W and N to mid 50s SE. Then, Sunday
morning`s lows will be in the mid to upper 30s inland and low 40s
along the coast. Patchy frost is possible, particularly in the
piedmont and counties that have already ended their growing season.
Will continue to monitor trends for areas where the growing season
has not ended. The recent ensemble guidance is continuing to show
dry weather persisting into the middle of next week as opposed to
bringing in any more rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 715 PM EST Friday...

A cold front has pushed toward the coastal terminals to begin
the 00z/7 TAF period. VFR conditions have returned at KRIC
to begin the TAF period, though there is the potential for some
ground fog through midnight or so, when winds increase a bit
with the passage of a second, reinforcing cold front late
tonight. Along the coast, LIFR/IFR CIGs/VSBY in fog and some
lingering light rain/drizzle will also improve late tonight
as NNE winds become breezy after 08-10z through Saturday
afternoon before winds diminish tomorrow night into Sunday.
VFR conditions at all terminals should prevail across all area
terminals tomorrow through the rest of the weekend.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue into early
next week. Some additional weak/dry cool air advection will
bring gusty NW breezes on Sunday, especially across the Eastern
Shore. Some additional periods of breezy NNW winds with weak
cold frontal passages are expected early Monday and again on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued tonight into Saturday
  as northerly winds increase behind a cold front passage.
  Another period of SCA conditions is possible Saturday night
  into Sunday morning.

A cold front is making its way south across local waters this
afternoon. Latest obs show that winds have turned to the N over most
of the marine zones excluding the southern coastal waters. It is a
bit breezy behind the front at 10-15kt and a few gusts to 20kt. The
stronger push of cooler, drier air will not be until later tonight,
so the post-frontal surge will be delayed from the passage of the
front itself. NW should pick up to 15-20kt over the bay and coastal
waters after midnight tonight and remain gusty through Saturday
morning. A brief period of 20-25kt is possible around sunrise
Saturday. Small Craft Advisories have already been issued for the
bay, southern coastal waters, and Currituck Sound for late tonight
through much of tomorrow. The northern coastal waters were added
with this forecast package to cover the potential for 5ft seas
during the day tomorrow. The offshore wind direction will keep seas
from building much higher than that, though. High pressure will be
slow to build in overhead, so gusty NW winds will likely continue
into Sunday morning. Did not extend the SCAs, however, because
guidance suggests a period of sub-advisory level winds during the
afternoon and evening Saturday. High pressure over the mid-south
builds E/NE towards the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday allowing winds to
shift to the W and diminish to 10-15kt. Seas will then fall back to
3-4ft. May need additional SCAs on Monday across northern waters on
where the pressure gradient is tighter on the north side of high
pressure. Sub-advisory conditions are then expected Tues-Thurs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch until 8 PM EST this evening for NCZ015>017-102.
VA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EST this evening for VAZ097-098-100-530-
     531.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ650-
     652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...KMC/MAM
MARINE...AC