Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

150
FXUS61 KAKQ 131940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
240 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses the the Mid Atlantic late tonight
night into Sunday, with accumulating snow possible Sunday,
especially on the Eastern Shore. Arctic air moves in behind the
cold front Sunday evening into Sunday night, and provides a cold
start to next week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give
way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday...

- A strong cold front brings low-end snow potential and blustery conditions
  on Sunday. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the
  Lower MD Eastern Shore for the potential for 1-2" of snow.

- A brief period of light snow could amount to a few tenths of an
  inch of accumulation as far south as Richmond-Williamsburg.

Transient sfc high pressure has shifted offshore with weak SSW flow
ahead of an approaching Arctic cold front (which is still over the
Appalachians). A deep trough is located over the Great Lakes and
Ontario, with a shortwave tracking over the Midwest at the base of
the trough. It is milder than it has been with temps in the mid 40s-
lower 50s this afternoon. The Arctic cold front approaches the area
tonight and crosses the area from late tonight into Sunday AM.

The trough over the Great Lakes amplifies as it dives SE while the
shortwave tracks across the Mid-Atlantic. The best forcing for
ascent will miss us to our north. However, precipitation will enter
far northern portions of the area after midnight, slowly spreading
S/SE toward the I-64 corridor and lower Eastern Shore heading toward
sunrise. S/SE progression continues through the morning before
exiting offshore by early afternoon. Precip will likely last a few
hours over the northern neck and eastern shore. While likely PoPs
extend to the RIC Metro, precip will last 2 hours at most across the
SW 2/3 of the area (including the RIC Metro and Hampton Roads). The
most likely timing for precip is from 4-10 AM across the northern
neck/eastern shore, 6-10 AM in the RIC Metro, and 8 AM-1 PM in SE
VA/NE NC. With the Arctic FROPA, precip may very briefly begin as
rain but will quickly change to snow in most areas outside of far SE
VA/NE NC.

Still think that at least 0.1" is likely along and NE of a Richmond-
Williamsburg line, with 0.5-1" expected across the northern neck,
and 1-2" on the MD Eastern Shore. Could see a dusting in Hampton
Roads if the changeover occurs in time. The coldest air won`t arrive
until Sun aftn/evening, so temps will only drop to 31-33F when the
snow is falling. Therefore, accums will mainly be on grassy surfaces
except on the MD Eastern Shore and perhaps the northern neck where
snowfall rates may briefly reach 0.75"/hour. Have expended the
Winter Wx Advisory to include all MD Eastern Shore counties. If snow
lasts longer than expected, a "reasonable worst case" would be up to
3" in Dorchester/Wicomico and up to 2" for the rest of the Eastern
Shore and Northern Neck.

Outside of precip chances, Sunday will be blustery as cold air
rushes in behind the front. Winds will pick up by mid-morning Sunday
and peak in the afternoon as the strongest CAA arrives. Gusts up to
35 mph are likely inland, with 45 mph gusts expected at the
immediate Atlantic coast. With this in mind, have issued Wind
Advisories for the VA Eastern Shore, VA Beach, and Eastern Currituck
starting Sun aftn and continuing through Sun night. Highs range from
the low 30s across the north to the low 40s in the SE, which will
occur in the morning before temps drop in the afternoon. By mid-
afternoon, wind chills could be as low as the mid teens.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire area
  for bitterly cold temps Sunday night/Monday morning with wind
  chills in the single digits.

- Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night with a slow moderating
  trend beginning on Tuesday.

Strong cold air advection continues Sunday night ushering in
bitterly cold temperatures. Much of the area will see temps in the
upper teens by midnight with Monday morning lows in the mid-teens
for most of the area and the upper teens to around 20F close to the
coast. While winds will not be quite as strong as Sunday night,
there will be enough wind to knock wind chills down into the single
digits for the entire area. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued
for the entire area for consistent messaging, even though the lower
5F criteria may not be reached in all central VA/VA Piedmont zones
as winds diminish Sun night. The only other thing to watch for is
the potential for some light bay effect snow showers in
Accomack/Northampton Counties with the cold NW flow. The ECMWF and
the vast majority of its ensemble members continue to forecast 0.02-
0.04" of QPF over a decent portion of the VA Eastern Shore Sun
night, while the other models (including the RGEM and CAMs which
normally pick up on this type of thing) have no QPF with the LLVL
flow a little bit more westerly. This is still low confidence but
have added slight chc for snow showers to these zones to account for
the possibility.

The Arctic sfc high slides in overhead Monday, leading to a cold and
mostly sunny day with much less wind. Highs will be in the low to
mid 30s. Not quite as cold on Monday night with lows in the low to
mid 20s. A moderating trend begins on Tue as the high slides to our
SE. Forecast highs are mainly in the upper 30s-mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Much warmer temperatures (compared to the first half of December)
are on the way for the middle and end of the week.

- Another (weaker) cold front brings another chance for light rain
Thursday night.

December 2025 has been one of the chilliest on record for many
of our climate sites. However, quite the change is on the way for
the extended period, with a pronounced warming trend continuing into
the midweek period and likely peaking Thursday.  The synoptic
pattern will be characterized by rather progressive, quasi-zonal
flow and building heights/thicknesses Tuesday night through
Thursday. At the surface, transient high pressure is expected to
remain offshore to our SE. All of this favors milder temps with high
temperatures in the mid 50s by Wednesday. A warm front then lifts
northward Thursday in advance of another cold front. There is some
uncertainty regarding the exact progression of the warm front which
will determine how warm temps get. For example, some guidance pushes
the warm front through earlier Thursday. This would allow for mild
temps areawide Thursday. On the other hand, another possible
solution has the warm front lifting north in the evening and
overnight Thursday. This would favor cooler temps Thursday,
especially across the N. Regardless, it will likely be very mild
(for December`s standards) later Thursday and especially early
Thursday night.

The cold front crosses the region Thursday night, bringing another
chance for precip. At this time, QPF looks inconsequential (ensemble
means are around a 0.25" or less). High pressure builds back in from
the W Friday, settling over the area Saturday. While it likely
temporarily trends cooler for the weekend, there are no signs of any
additional significant cold air outbreaks.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for most of the 18z/13 TAF period.
High clouds and SW winds of ~10 kt are expected through most of
tonight ahead of an Arctic cold front. That front crosses the
terminals from late tonight into Sunday morning (09-15z). A few
hours of precipitation will likely accompany the front. A
period of -RASN is likely at RIC/SBY changing to all snow with
a couple hours worth of IFR VSBYs (best chc at SBY but an hour
or so of IFR VSBYs is possible in -SN at RIC). A rain/snow mix
is expected at PHF/ORF, with mainly rain at ECG. In addition to
the precip, CIGs likely drop to MVFR behind the front, with a
couple hours worth of IFR CIGs possible before dry/VFR
conditions return Sunday afternoon (w/ NW winds increasing to
15-20 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt).

VFR conditions prevail Sunday night through Wednesday. Winds
remain gusty near the coast Sunday night before diminishing on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A strong, Arctic cold front crosses the waters early Sunday
  morning, with Gale conditions expected later Sunday morning
  into Sunday night over all of the waters.

- Light freezing spray is possible Sunday night.

- Another round of SCAs is possible Monday night into early Tuesday.

A strong cold front is located NW of the region this afternoon, with
high pressure now centered well offshore. In between these features,
a weak warm front has shifted the winds to the S-SW. Regardless,
marine conditions are generally benign with wind speeds 15 kt or
less (highest northern coastal waters). Any elevated southerly flow
diminishes across the N this evening into tonight, with SW winds 5-
10 kt for most of the night. Then, the strong front (of Arctic
origin) drops southward through the waters after 09z/4 AM.

In the wake of the strong cold front early Sunday morning, very cold
and dry air advects into the region. Extremely cold temperatures
aloft (850 mb temps as low as -20 C) mix down to the surface across
(relatively) warmer waters, creating very windy conditions. Winds
rapidly increase and become NW Sunday morning, with sustained winds
of 25 to 30 knots and gusts of 35+ knots expected by late morning-
early afternoon over a majority of the waters. Winds increase
further during the afternoon-evening hours, peaking between roughly
~00z to 06z Monday (7 PM Sun to 1 AM Mon); sustained winds of 30 to
35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots are expected during this
timeframe. Given the extreme airmass change, would not be surprised
if brief storm-force wind gusts were realized, especially at the
elevated observation sites. Gale Warnings are in effect for all
zones starting early Sunday morning.Winds should fall below Gale
thresholds everywhere by sunrise Monday morning, and then below SCA
thresholds by Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds back into
the area.

In addition to the wind, seas build to 6 to 10 feet by Sunday night,
though the slight offshore component of the wind should help to keep
seas from building further. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will build
to 4 to 6 feet. Finally, some freezing spray is possible Sunday
night due to the strong winds and cold air temperatures. However,
marginal water temperatures (low to mid 40s) should keep any
freezing spray light. Thus, will keep mention of this out of the
text forecast for now.

Calmer conditions are anticipated later Monday, though a brief surge
of S-SW wind may lead to additional SCA headlines (mainly over the
Chesapeake Bay) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Sub-
SCA conditions then return Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold
front may bring increasing winds Thursday into Friday.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     MDZ021>025.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for
     MDZ021>025.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ102.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for
     VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-
     631.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-
     634-650-652-654.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-
     635>638-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...AC/ERI
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB/SW