Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

484
FXUS61 KAKQ 261051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
651 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12z TAF update.
Marine Updates: Coastal Flood Advisory and High Surf Advy
added (see marine section below).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light rain lingers into the early afternoon across far SE VA
and NE NC. Otherwise, cloudy, cool, and breezy today. Becoming
milder with more sunshine Monday.

2) There are multiple opportunities for additional rainfall
next week with temperatures near to below normal. However,
drought conditions are likely to persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Light rain lingers into the early afternoon
across far SE VA and NE NC. Otherwise, cloudy, cool, and breezy
today. Becoming milder with more sunshine Monday.

Light rain persists over southeast VA and northeast NC this morning
as low pressure (currently centered about 100 miles E of the VA
Eastern Shore) slowly deepens offshore. An associated cold front
will drop S over the next few hours with northerly winds increasing
to ~10-15 mph. Additional shower activity is likely to develop along
the leading edge of this front and will mainly impact central and
southern VA and NC through sunrise. High pressure strengthens well
to our N later today, situating over Atlantic Canada, with the
offshore low pressure system slowly pulling further away from the
coast. A cold air damming setup will result, favoring cool, cloudy,
and dreary conditions for most of the forecast area. Light rain also
lingers through the early morning in far SE VA and NE NC. Breezy
winds also develop given the compressed pressure gradient, highest
(to 30 mph or so) along the immediate coast. We continue to undercut
the NBM highs by several degrees and are only forecasting temps in
the 50s for most of the area today given the persistent onshore flow
and CAD. Lower 60s are possible in NE NC near the Albemarle Sound.

The moist low-levels should gradually scour out on Monday, though a
residual CAD will still likely be in place with low pressure S of
Cape Cod and high pressure again over Atlantic Canada. Therefore,
would not be surprised if some low clouds linger near the coast.
Lowered the NBM highs a degree or two given this plus the brisk
onshore flow. Am still expecting a good amount of sunshine and
milder temps for the area and highs range from the lower 60s along
the coast to mid-upper 60s inland (potentially nearing 70 F in the
Piedmont).


KEY MESSAGE 2...There are multiple opportunities for additional
rainfall next week with temperatures near to below normal. However,
drought conditions are likely to persist.

A strong upper level trough/low will be in place across central
Canada Tue-Wed, eventually dropping SE towards the Great Lakes and
New England late in the week. At the surface, low pressure passing
through the upper midwest will bring a frontal boundary through the
area Tuesday, possible leading to a few showers. At this time, PoPs
are 30-50%, but rainfall amounts look light as moisture is fairly
limited. A potentially more substantial slug of moisture is expected
late Wednesday as wave of low pressure emerges from the MS Valley
and approaches our area, and PoPs from the NBM are now 70-90%
with this feature. Global models diagnose some instability over
much of the region Wednesday so thunderstorms are also a
possibility. Specifics beyond this time are uncertain but chance
PoPs are in place again Fri-Sat as additional waves of moisture
pass through. Ensemble precipitation fields do not depict
enough QPF to have any meaningful impact on ongoing drought
conditions. Temperatures generally will be near to a little
cooler than average for mid- late Spring (warmest Wednesday)
with variable cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 620 AM EDT Sunday...

Developing low pressure is situated offshore of the VA coast
this morning. Flight restrictions are in place at all terminals
with IFR CIGs expected to persist through most of the morning
hours. While mainly dry conditions are expected during the
daylight hours today, a lingering shower or two is possible at
ORF and ECG through ~15z. Gradual improvement to MVFR is
forecast by this afternoon and especially this evening, with
the northern terminals improving first. However, skies are
expected to remain BKN-OVC. Further improvement to VFR is
expected tonight w/ even SKC after 06z at RIC and SBY. N/NNE
10-15 kt winds become gusty to 20-25 kt inland and 25-30 kt at
the coast later this morning and afternoon. Winds gradually
subside tonight but remain elevated along the coast.

Outlook: Lower CIGs (and potentially flight restrictions) could
linger along the coast Monday. Inland locations should dry out
with primarily VFR conditions expected. There is a chance for
mainly light rain Tuesday with a better shot of more widespread
rainfall Wednesday. Flight restrictions will be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 650 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Solid SCA conditions are expected through Monday evening, as
  low pressure deepens and slides northeast along a cold front
  just offshore. Gusts to Gale Force are expected over the
  coastal waters through early evening. Gale Warnings remain in
  effect for all coastal waters north of the VA/NC border.

- Nuisance to low-end minor coastal flooding is possible for
  communities along the lower Chesapeake Bay and tidal VA Rivers
  late tonight. Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level
  is possible.

Latest analysis indicates a deepening ~1008 mb surface low just
offshore of the VA Capes early this morning. The associated
cold front extends southwest across the lower Chesapeake Bay and
just inland from the Carolina coast. Cold air advection is
beginning to increase across the region, with gusts already
developing over the northern waters while winds remain lighter
farther south.

Through this morning, the front will push offshore as the low
lifts east-northeast along the boundary. In response, steadily
strengthening cold air advection and a tightening pressure
gradient will rapidly increase north to northeast winds across
the local waters through this morning.

SCAs remain in effect for all marine zones, with sustained
north winds of 20 to 25 kt and gusts up to around 30 kt across
the Chesapeake Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound. Over the
coastal waters, north winds will increase to 25 to 30 kt with
frequent gusts of 35 to 40 kt, highest offshore and north of
the VA/NC border, where Gale Warnings remain in effect.

Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will build from 1 to 3 ft early this
morning to 2 to 5 ft by tonight, with the highest waves near
the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Seas will build from 4 to 6 ft
to 6 to 9 ft nearshore by late tonight into early Monday, and
up to 9 to 11 ft well offshore. A High Surf Advisory is in
effect for the Atlantic coast of Maryland and Accomack County,
VA for today and tonight, and may be needed farther south into
coastal Tidewater and northeast North Carolina by this evening.

Gale-force winds will diminish from north to south early this
evening, but SCA conditions will persist across all waters
through Monday. As winds gradually decrease Monday afternoon and
night, SCAs over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers should be able to
expire. However, persistent east to northeast flow will maintain
elevated seas nearshore, with wave heights remaining at or above
5 ft through at least midweek due to lingering short-period
wind waves.

Coastal Flooding...

In regards to the coastal flooding potential, tidal anomalies
have increased to 1.0 to 1.5 ft above normal in the lower bay
and Tidal James River. The tightening pressure gradient will
bring an increasingly strong onshore (NNE) flow through late
this afternoon into tonight. Wave action/increasing seas (due to
both wind waves and swell) will also serve to increase tidal
anomalies  over tidal sites in the lower Chesapeake Bay and
lower James River. Have added a Coastal Flood Advisory for
tonight into Monday morning over the lower James River,
including Sewell`s Point and Smithfield. Will continue to
monitor trends over the next 12-24 hours for potential additions
to the Advisory. Gradual relaxing of the gradient will allow
winds to come down and anomalies to ease. However, tides will
remain elevated through Tuesday, with additional minor flooding
possible in the tidal rivers and lower Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ025.
NC...None.
VA...High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ099.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Monday for VAZ097-525-528>531.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637-639.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-652-680-
     682.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ654-656.
     Gale Warning from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ654-656-684-686.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...HET/MAM