Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

478
FXUS61 KAKQ 061925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
225 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing potential for dense fog tonight, especially near the
coast.

There is a low-end potential for a strong to severe storm
Sunday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern half of VA
into NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A backdoor cold front will continue to advance southwest
this evening into tonight. Widespread fog (potentially dense) is
expected to develop tonight into Saturday morning.

2) Warmer for the entire area Saturday as the front lifts back
north. Showers and potentially a thunderstorm are also in the
forecast later Saturday into Sunday as a cold front approaches
from the west and the crosses through the region.

3) A significant warmup will continue through the middle of
next week before a stronger cold front crosses the area later
Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A backdoor cold front will continue to advance
southwest this evening into tonight. Widespread fog (potentially
dense) is expected to develop tonight into Saturday morning.

This afternoon, a backdoor cold front is oriented SE to NW from
roughly Currituck, NC to Wakefield, VA to Petersburg, up to
Palmyra. North of the boundary, winds are out of the E or NE
while south of the boundary winds are S to SW. Along the
immediate coast, temperatures have fallen or have remained
steady (Eastern Shore) in the low 40s to low 50s. Inland, but
north of the boundary, temperatures range from the mid 60s to
mid 70s. South of the boundary temperatures are in the upper 70s
to low 80s. Temperatures will fall (especially closer to the
coast) north of the front this afternoon and evening. Still
cannot rule out a stray shower along or just north of the
boundary this evening into tonight, but overall chances are low
(20-30% PoPs).

Widespread fog likely develops later this evening initially
along the coast and spreads inland later tonight into early
Saturday morning. Fog may become dense, especially closer to the
coast, where HREF probs show ~40-60% chances for visbilities
below a quarter of a mile. Temperatures drop into the 40s for
the northeastern 2/3rds of the forecast area with the far SW
remaining in the 50s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer for the entire area Saturday as the
front lifts back north. Showers and potentially a thunderstorm
are also in the forecast later Saturday into Sunday as a cold
front approaches from the west and the crosses through the
region.

The boundary lifts back to the north on Saturday as a cold
front begins to approach from the west. At this time it appears
most of the area will be in the warm sector Saturday afternoon
with highs expected to range from the mid 70s to around 80
inland to the 60s to low 70s closer to the coast. The 12z NAM
tries to hang out to the cooler airmass through most of the day,
delaying any warmup until the evening. While this solution is
an outlier, the potential is nonzero and we will have to monitor
observational trends Saturday morning. Isolated to scattered
rain showers are also possible Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night, especially across northern and western portions of the
forecast area.

Rain chances increase on Sunday as the front pushes into the
area before likely stalling and dissipating. The highest rain
chances Sunday will be focused across the southern half of the
area. Thunderstorms will also be possible, while widespread
severe weather is still not expected, machine learning/AI models
are pinpointing at least the potential for a low-end severe
weather threat mainly across far southern VA into NC. From
looking at model soundings, the main threat would be for a
damaging wind gust with any stronger storms. SPC also just
highlighted the southern half of the area with a Day 3 Marginal
risk with the afternoon update. Temperatures remain above
average on Sunday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s
(60s to low 70s coast and Eastern Shore). Monday will again be
mild with a lingering shower possible for SE VA and NE NC along
the remnant frontal feature.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warmup will continue through the
middle of next week before a stronger cold front crosses the
area later Wednesday into Thursday.

Well above average temperatures continue into next week, likely
peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread (inland) high
temperatures in the low 80s possible. Based on the current
forecast, record high temperatures will be in reach at RIC and
potentially ORF with both sites having current record highs in
the low 80s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. A stronger front
likely approaches later Wednesday into Thursday bringing the
next chance for widespread rain (and potentially thunderstorms).
There could be a severe weather potential with the front
Wednesday into Thursday, but the timing of the frontal passage
(overnight Wednesday or early Thursday) may help to keep the
threat limited. Temperatures return to closer to normal or below
normal later in the week..

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EST Friday...

A backdoor cold front is moving south across the local area
with winds turning E-NE behind the front. Low stratus (LIFR
CIGs) has already moved into ORF off the water and is also not
too far from PHF. Off to the NE, including SBY, IFR CIGs remain
locked in place due to the cool onshore flow. At RIC and ECG,
VFR conditions continue. The front will continue to push to the
south this afternoon and evening. CIGs lower to IFR and
eventually LIFR at the remaining TAF sites later this evening
into tonight. Model guidance remains very aggressive with
widespread LIFR CIGs and dense fog tonight into Saturday morning
at all sites. Conditions slowly improve Saturday morning, but
CIGs may remain IFR throughout the period at ORF, PHF, and SBY.

Outlook: Conditions should quickly improve Saturday afternoon as
the front pushes back N, followed by rain/shower (and a few
tstm) chances Saturday evening/night into Sunday. Mainly VFR
Monday through much of Wednesday. A stronger front approaches
later Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Marine fog remains a concern for northern coastal waters
  through at least this evening.

- A sub-SCA wind and sea state is expected through Saturday.
  The next potential for SCAs is Saturday night into Sunday

The backdoor front that has been pestering the local area this
week sagged to the south today, placing all of the local waters
north of the front and in NE flow. Latest obs show 5-10kt for
most places, but have seen a few obs closer to 15kt in the lower
James. Seas are around 3ft. Marine fog is still a problem and
has spread south and into the bay, prompting an expansion of the
Marine Dense Fog Advys. Fog will likely remain in place through
at least this evening, so went ahead and extended the Dense Fog
Advy through 7pm with additional extensions possible. The front
gradually slides back north late tonight, shifting the winds
back to the south and hopefully clearing out the fog by mid
morning tomorrow. S-SW winds then increase tomorrow afternoon
and evening to 15-20 kt early Sunday morning. SCAs appear
probable for the coastal waters Sat night as sustained winds
increase to around 20 kt with ~5 ft seas (especially N), with
SCAs also possible on the Chesapeake Bay and rivers due to 20-25
kt gusts. Lighter winds return Sunday-Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>632-
     634-638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB/SW
MARINE...AC