Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

909
FXUS61 KAKQ 051905
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
305 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased fire danger for portions of NE NC Saturday and Sunday.
Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) NC Forecast Service has requested an Increased Fire Danger
Statement for portions of NE NC (most local NE NC counties with
the exception of Northampton) from 10 PM to 8 PM Saturday and
Sunday due to very high fire danger.

2) Hot temperatures continue through Sunday with highs in the
lower to mid 90s.

3) A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing a low
chance for afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms, followed by briefly cooler temperatures early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...NC Forecast Service has requested an Increased
Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC (most local NE NC
counties with the exception of Northampton) from 10 PM to 8 PM
Saturday and Sunday due to very high fire danger.

Very high fire danger is forecast for the Northern Coast region
of the NC Forest Service (NCFS) this weekend. This includes
most local NE NC counties with the exception of Northampton.
Therefore, NCFS has requested an Increased Fire Danger Statement
Saturday and Sunday. Very high fire danger is resulting from
ongoing drought conditions, lack of widespread wetting rain
leading to low soil moisture, and abnormally dry dead fuels.
Additionally, there is lower moisture content in live coastal
fuels. These factors will combine with hot temperatures Saturday
and Sunday, and abnormally low RH values (25-35%), especially
Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot temperatures continue through Sunday with
highs in the lower to mid 90s.

High pressure is centered along the Southeast coast this
afternoon. Mostly sunny under thin cirrus with temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. The airmass remains quite dry with
dewpoints ranging through the 50s. Mostly clear tonight with low
temperatures primarily ranging through the 60s.

The surface high gradually shifts offshore through this weekend
while the upper ridge continues to move eastward. This will
allow for hot (and dry) weather through this weekend. Widespread
highs in the mid 90s are expected Saturday and lower to mid 90s
Sunday (warmest south). Even though temperatures will be hot,
dew points will struggle to recover. In fact, afternoon
dewpoints will likely be no higher than the mid to upper 50s
Saturday, keeping heat indices around (or even just below) the
actual air temperatures. Dew points appear to rise Sunday into
the mid to upper 60s in advance of the cold front with max heat
indices similar to Saturday (mid 90s for most inland areas and
upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast).

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front moves into the area Sunday
bringing a low chance for afternoon and early evening showers
and thunderstorms, followed by briefly cooler temperatures early
next week.

Low pressure moves into New England Sunday, pushing a cold
front into the local area. Ahead of the front, dew points in the
mid to upper 60s should allow for enough moisture for at least
a few isolated showers and tstms. 05/12z CAMs that go through at
least 60hrs trigger some showers/tstms in vicinity of the Blue
Ridge Sunday aftn with this activity tracking ESE across
southern/SE VA into interior NE NC later Sunday afternoon and
evening. Additionally, coarser resolution models with convective
parameterization accumulate some QPF in this same corridor.
Therefore, adjusted PoPs to highlight this region, but still not
higher than 20-40% as overall PW diminishes as the cold front
approaches the local area. Additionally, SPC has placed most of
the region in a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe weather on
Sunday due to the potential for damaging wind gusts. However,
confidence is low given uncertainty in storm coverage and
forcing. In any case, rainfall (if any) will likely be low with
most locations not receiving more than a few hundredths of an
inch of rain. Rain chances diminish Sunday night as drier air
moves in behind the cold front.

Briefly cooler temperatures return early next week with highs
in the 70s NE to mid/upper 80s SW Monday and mid/upper 70s E to
the mid 80s W Tue. However, this cooler weather will be brief
with temperatures warming by midweek as high pressure settles
offshore. While PoPs remain low at this time, there are some
signs of a bit of an unsettled pattern developing by mid-late
week with daily chances for diurnally driven isolated to
scattered showers/tstms.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure was centered along the Southeast coast as of 18z.
VFR under thin cirrus with a light W/SW wind. VFR conditions
prevail tonight through Saturday as high pressure gradually
settles off the Southeast coast. The will become southerly later
this aftn into tonight (could briefly become ESE along the
coast late this aftn), and then generally SW 5-10kt late
Saturday morning into the aftn.

Outlook...High pressure remains into control Saturday night
through at least midday Sunday with VFR conditions continuing.
The next chance of showers/storms (20-40% chc) arrives ahead of
a cold front Sunday afternoon/evening. High pressure builds
across New England in the wake of the cold front Monday/Tuesday
with VFR conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore
Wednesday with a minimal chc (20-30%) of diurnal showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions prevail today into the
  weekend.

- A cold front is forecast to cross the coast Sunday night
  followed by another period of NE/onshore flow and potential
  Small Craft Advisory conditions early next week.


Generally benign conditions over the marine areas through the
weekend with periods of breeziness. High pressure is situated
just south of the local area this afternoon, leading to light
winds with variable directions as a sea breeze develops. Winds
turn to the SW and increase to ~15kt over the bay and coastal
waters, 10-15kt over the rivers/sound later this evening as the
sfc high is slightly suppressed and the pressure gradient starts
to tighten ahead of a frontal system. Seas will increase
slightly to 3-4ft, and waves in the bay increase to 1-2ft. These
conditions more or less continue through the day Saturday, but
could see a few hour lull in the morning where winds drop to
5-10kt. A relatively weak front slowly approaches from the north
Saturday night through Sunday, leading to winds further
increasing ahead of it to 15-20kt over the coastal waters Sat
night-early Sunday. SCAs are possible during this time frame,
particularly on the nearshore coastal waters where seas may
approach 5 feet. Since onset is over 24 hours out and on the
low- end/on the threshold of criteria, will hold off on issuing
headlines for this cycle. Winds diminish to 5-10kt during the
day Sunday and become variable as the front drops through the
region. There is higher confidence in SCAs early next week as NE
winds behind the front increase to 15-20kt over the coastal
waters, lower bay, and lower James River. Seas likely build to
5-6ft. Onshore flow continues at least through Tuesday, albeit
with weaker speeds, which may lead to seas remaining at 5ft+
through mid week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC