Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

896
FXUS61 KAKQ 240951
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
551 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered temperatures slightly today. Area of low pressure looks
to potentially stay closer to shore to start the weekend, so
lingered cloud cover and rain chances for the immediate coast
line.

Increased uncertainty in the marine forecast Friday night into
the weekend depending on the track of the low. Gale potential
may linger.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Overcast, breezy, and unsettled conditions continue today.

2) Drying out across the west on Friday, but rain chances and
gusty winds look to linger along the coast depending on the
track of the low pressure system. Becoming drier and warmer next
week.

3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding
(inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue
through at least tonight`s high tide, with some degree of tidal
flooding likely continuing through part of the weekend. Coastal
Flood Warnings have been extended through Friday for much of the
area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Overcast, breezy, and unsettled conditions continue
today.

Early morning surface analysis shows the broad Canadian high
pressure still parked to our north with a wedge of cooler air
extending down into our area. This wedge will allow for another day
of cool, cloudy, and occasionally drizzly weather. Opted to lower
high temperatures a couple of degrees today after yesterday`s
temperatures remained much cooler than expected, making the forecast
show low to mid 60s inland with upper 70s for the east. There could
be a few 70 degree readings in far SE VA and NE NC. The area of
low pressure off the coast will become more organized today and
strengthen before beginning to move NNE late tonight into
Friday. This will allow more rounds of drizzle to move through
today. Don`t think we will see the widespread steady rain like
we saw yesterday, but intermittent drizzle/light rain will be
likely. Hi-res guidance has a lull for most of us from daybreak
through about mid-day before light rain chances increase across
the eastern CWA this afternoon. That pattern will continue into
the overnight hours as PoPs become confined to the Tidewater,
NE NC, and the Eastern Shore. Strong NE winds will continue to
create rough conditions for coastal locations through the day
today. Gusts to 30-40mph are likely for all coastal areas, with
the highest gusts up to 50mph along the Atlantic coast where a
Wind Advisory remains in effect. Inland locations will see gusts
to 20-25mph. Dangerous surf, beach erosion, and moderate to
major tidal flooding are all forecast once again today. Please
see the sections below for further details. Low temperatures
tonight will dip into the upper 40s for far western locations
with upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out across the west on Friday, but rain
chances and gusty winds look to linger along the coast
depending on the track of the low pressure system. Becoming
drier and warmer next week.

Latest 00Z model runs still show some slight disagreement in regards
to the timing and future track of the coastal low Friday into the
weekend. The ECMWF remains slower with the low and ultimately tracks
it closer to the coast, eventually bringing the low along the
NJ coast Saturday night into Sunday. The GFS is still a bit
faster and further east with the low track through Saturday, but
has come ever so slightly more in-line with the ECMWF on Sunday
as it brings the low back to the New Jersey coast. Then they
both have the low moving east out to sea by Monday evening. This
time frame is starting to come into the window of some of the
higher resolution models like the NAM and the RAP, which are
both a bit more closer to the GFS in keeping the low further
offshore. Regardless, most solutions keep rain chances going
along the immediate coast through the day on Friday, then
shifting northward to be more confined to the Eastern Shore on
Saturday, and just the Maryland Eastern Shore Saturday night
into Sunday morning. This will also allow winds to remain
elevated for coastal areas, though the direction will shift to
become more northerly on Friday and northwesterly for the
weekend. While it won`t be quite as strong as what we`re seeing
now, gusts to 30-35mph will still be possible. Winds should
gradually subside through the day on Sunday as the low starts to
weaken and pull away from the coast.

Another cool day is forecast for Friday with everyone topping out in
around 70 degrees. Drier air will filter into inland areas allowing
for overnight lows to dip into the lower 50s west of I-95 and mod to
upper 50s to the east. The typical cooler spots across the far west
may see upper 40s by daybreak Saturday morning. Temperatures then
get noticeably warmer (but stay around average) as highs this weekend
will be in the upper 70s inland. For the Eastern Shore where the
cloud cover and rain may linger, expect highs in the lower 70s.

High pressure builds into the region late Monday through Wednesday
giving us a break with dry weather and sunshine. Temperatures will
be able to warm more each day with the ridging overhead. On Monday,
expect low to mid 70s for the north and upper 70s to near 80 degrees
across the south. By mid-week, we may be well above normal once
again (mid 80s) as southerly flow develops ahead of the next cold
front.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding
(inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue
through at least tonight`s high tide, with some degree of tidal
flooding likely continuing through part of the weekend. Coastal
Flood Warnings have been extended through Friday for much of the
area.

Northeast winds continue to persist at 25-35 kt with gusts to 35-40
kt (occasionally to 45 kt) early this morning. These winds are
likely to persist through today before gradually becoming N then NNW
by Friday and Saturday (and most likely diminishing to some
degree...especially across the bay and tidal rivers). Tidal
anomalies are now 2.5-3.5 ft above normal across the middle and
lower bay and will continue to remain in that range today.
Widespread moderate to major flooding is expected this morning and
again for this evening/tonight`s high tide. Some sites (especially
Jamestown/Lynnhaven/Smithfield) are forecast to crest around 0.5 ft
above major flood stage.

There continues to remain some uncertainty with respect to the
forecast on Friday and Saturday as winds become N-NNW and there is a
weak signal for stronger ebb tides at Cape Henry as per the latest
CBOFS runs. ETSS still shows moderate flooding in the lower bay and
tidal rivers through Friday night`s high tide (and even moderate at
Jamestown through Sunday) despite the wind direction becoming less
favorable for tidal flooding (NNW to even NW by Sunday). In past
events where the wind has turned from the NE to NNW, water levels
have tended to fall quicker across the lower bay and York/James.
Therefore, have kept forecasts below ETSS and close to STOFS
starting Friday but will continue to keep a close eye on the
forecast. Given high confidence in moderate to locally major
flooding during the Friday morning/midday high tide, have extended
Coastal Flood Warnings through Friday for all areas except the upper
bay. While water levels are expected to fall across the lower bay
Friday into Saturday, they may remain steady or slowly rise again
across the upper bay depending on ebb/flood tide behavior and wind
speed (a stronger NNW-NW wind would likely keep water levels in
check across the area). Again, there continues to remain some
uncertainity here but there is some potential that moderate to
locally major tidal flooding continues farther north through Friday
and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 600 AM EDT Thursday...

Conditions will remain rather persistent at the terminals
through the TAF period as low pressure develops offshore
keeping gusty NE winds and BKN-OVC skies around. The far NW
terminals are seeing VFR CIGs, with MVFR for everyone else.
Expecting MVFR to persist for most sites through this
afternoon (RIC could have periods of VFR). DZ/-SHRA will
continue across the SE (including ORF and ECG) through ~14Z. Hi-
res guidance shows a break in the DZ until another band
potentially moves ashore to ORF/ECG for a few hours after ~17Z.
If there is precipitation today, expect some VIS reductions as
well. Strong NE winds will continue tonight and Thursday with
gusts to 30+ kt likely (lower away from the coast, including
RIC). CIGs may begin to improve for RIC and west this evening.

Outlook: At least intermittent degraded flight conditions are
likely as the unsettled weather pattern persists for eastern
areas through the end of the week. Coastal terminals will also
have elevated NE winds for an extended period, with winds
remaining elevated and shifting to the N-NW into the weekend.
CIGs along the coast should gradually improve late week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Gale force wind gusts are likely to continue through this evening-
tonight across the bay, and at least Friday over the ocean.
Prevailing winds will be 25-35 kt with gusts to 35-45 kt out of the
NNE. Winds diminish slightly tonight/Friday morning.

- Forecast confidence remains high through Friday morning. Forecast
uncertainity increases significantly Friday afternoon through Friday
night. Models have trended westward with respect to the rapidly
deepening offshore low. If this trend continues, additional gale
headlines may be needed for the bay and ocean from late Friday
through Saturday morning with N-NNW winds.

- Dangerous marine conditions continue through at least tonight with
10-16+ ft seas.

Early morning wx analysis shows ~1010mb low pressure well off the
coast of NC, while strong 1030-1035mb high pressure continues to be
anchored near the Saint Lawrence Valley. The pressure gradient
between these two systems is resulting in a NE wind of 25-35 kt with
gusts of 35-40 kt (occasionally higher). Dangerous marine conditions
prevail with seas of 10-16 ft (higher 20-60nm offshore) and waves of
5-8 ft on the bay. Strong SCA conditions prevail on the upper
rivers. Winds are peaking now and will remain 25-30 kt on the bay/30-
35 kt on the ocean through the day today with significant wave
heights as high as 15-17 ft in the nearshore coastal waters.
Frequent gusts of 35-40 kt are expected, with occasional 45 kt gusts
(perhaps 50 kt at elevated terminals). There is decent model
consensus that winds become more northerly and diminish to ~25 kt
with gusts to 30-35 kt on the bay tonight, and 25-30 kt with gusts
to 35-40 kt on the ocean as the pressure gradient (temporarily?)
relaxes due to the weakening high to our north.

Forecast uncertainty increases a lot starting Friday afternoon and
continuing Friday night/early Saturday morning. The main point of
uncertainty is the eventual track of the low offshore. That low is
still progged to rapidly deepen Friday into Saturday as it tracks
NNE. Most of the models yesterday (in addition to the 00z GFS/CMC)
have it deepening far enough offshore and tracking toward Long
Island. This scenario would result in strong SCAs across the bay
Friday-Saturday AM with gale gusts continuing farther offshore
through Friday and potentially Friday night (especially north of
Cape Charles). However, the 00z deterministic ECMWF now deepens the
low much closer to the VA/MD coast Fri/Fri night, which would result
in another round of solid gales for the coastal waters (and gale
gusts on the bay) starting late Friday and lasting through early Sat
AM. Our local wind probabilities show a 20-40% chc of 34+ kt gusts
across the bay Fri aftn-Fri night (with probs of 5-20% from late
tonight-midday Fri). This is not a typical 20-40% chc of 34+ kt
winds, as there are two possible scenarios that are very different
from one another. Did not issue additional Gale Watches for this
potential, as the ECMWF is still somewhat of an outlier at this
time. Will note that the deterministic ECMWF is near the western
edge of its own ensemble with respect to low track, but there has
been a westward trend in the 00z EPS compared to the 06, 12, and 18z
runs. However, will likely see additional headlines today if things
continue to trend toward the more aggressive ECMWF solution. The
current Gale Warnings run through late evening for the upper bay and
part of tonight for the lower bay/lower James. The warnings have
been extended until late Friday morning for the ocean south of
Parramore Island, late Friday afternoon for the northern two
nearshore ocean zones, and early Saturday morning for the offshore
(20-60nm) coastal waters. Regardless of what happens with the
coastal low, the wind direction will gradually become NNW by Fri
night/Sat with winds finally diminishing Sunday and likely falling
below SCA thresholds by Monday.

Dangerous surfing conditions will continue through the rest of the
week, with a high rip current risk into the weekend due to elevated
seas even as the winds become NNW. Localized beach/dune erosion is
possible as well. High Surf Advisories have been extended until
Friday morning for now.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for MDZ024-025.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for MDZ025.
NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for NCZ102.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ017-102.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for VAZ081>084-089-
     090-097>100-518-520-523>525-528>531.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098>100-530-
     531.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for VAZ098>100.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078-085-
     086-521-522.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-631-633-
     639.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ654-656-658.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ680-682-684.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ686.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ688.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JKP/ERI
AVIATION...JKP/RHR
MARINE...ERI