Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

292
FXUS61 KAKQ 101721
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1221 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in appreciable rainfall late this week continues to
decrease. Meanwhile, confidence in the first widespread sub-
freezing nights of the season this weekend continues to
increase.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week.

2) A strong cold front brings chances for showers Thursday-Friday,
but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler
temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing
temperatures likely inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1220 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week.

Temperatures as of 12 PM have warmed into the mid-upper 60s for
most of the area. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
are expected under clear skies with a light SW wind. Not as
cold tonight with lows in the low-mid 40s for most. Another
seasonably mild day is on the way for Wednesday with sky cover
and temperatures very similar to today. However, unlike today,
clouds will likely gradually increase in coverage late in the
day as low pressure begins to take shape well NW of the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for showers
Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much
cooler temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing
temperatures likely inland.

A big change remains on the horizon as we approach late week. A
shortwave trough is forecast to dive southward out of the north-
central CONUS Wednesday, with a larger longwave trough and embedded
upper low setting up shop over most of the eastern CONUS by Thursday
and Friday. While isolated to scattered showers are possible
Thursday and Friday, confidence is decreasing. PoPs have lowered to
25-40% along and north of I-64 and less than 25% south of I-64 on
Thursday and 15-20% only across the Eastern Shore on Friday. The 12z
GEFS only has a 20-40% chance for greater than 0.1" of rain with
negligible probs for greater than 0.5" of rain. Meanwhile, the
6z EPS is similar with generally a 30-50% chance for greater
than 0.1" of rain and negligible probs for greater than 0.5". As
such, the main focus will be the much cooler temperatures that
overspread the area behind the associated frontal passage as the
anomalously strong trough moves into the region. Thursday looks
to be the last mild day for a while with pre-frontal highs in
the mid-upper 60s for most and around 70F SE. A series of cold
fronts then crosses the local area Thursday evening and
overnight, bringing much cooler temps by Friday. At this time,
forecast highs Friday are only in the 50s. The large upper
trough remains parked over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday,
and this still looks like the coolest day of the period. Highs
Sat are only expected to reach the lower 50s for most of the
area with upper 40s possible across the far northern portions of
the area (especially the lower MD Eastern Shore). These cool
temps continue into early next week. Overnight lows will also be
much cooler with lows in the upper 20s to around freezing for
most locations away from the coast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
nights. Subfreezing temperatures may continue (for lows) Monday
and Tuesday nights as well. As such, the growing season looks to
be ending shortly for most areas. Will likely need a Freeze
Watch as we get closer to the weekend. Gusty NW winds could make
these temps feel even chillier.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1145 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period with mostly
clear skies. SW winds of 5-10 kt this afternoon become light
and variable tonight into early Wed.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the west
Thursday, with showers possible by Thursday, potentially
lingering into Friday. Some short- lived sub-VFR conditions are
possible with the frontal passage, along with some gusty NW
winds and markedly cooler conditions behind the front for Friday
and the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday.

- An extended period of strong NW winds and elevated seas are
  likely Friday into the weekend. However, confidence with
  respect to the strength of the wind and exact timing remains
  low.

High pressure is centered over southern VA and Carolina coastal
plain early this morning. The wind is less than 10kt, out of the NW
across the northern tier of the local marine area, and out of the NE
across the southern tier of the area. Seas range from 2-3ft in the
coastal waters, to 3-4ft in the offshore waters, with 1-2ft waves in
the Ches. Bay. High pressure prevails across the region through
Wednesday, before moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub-
SCA conditions are expected during this timeframe. There is a weak
dry cold front that crosses the coast tonight. The wind becomes WSW
today and increases to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean ahead
of this boundary this aftn and early evening, before becoming N
~10kt, then NE 5-10kt behind the front later tonight into early
Wednesday morning. High pressure becomes centered in vicinity of the
northern Delmarva Wednesday with the wind becoming light and
variable across the northern tier of the marine area, and ENE 5-10kt
across the southern tier of the area. The wind then becomes SE 5-
10kt Wednesday night and then S followed by SW Thursday and
increasing to 10-15kt as the high moves farther offshore and as a
cold front approaches from the NW. Seas remain to 2-3ft nearshore
and 3-4ft offshore today, and then 2-3ft for most of the local
Atlantic zones through midweek. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 1 to
occasionally 2ft Tuesday through midweek.

Low pressure and a strong cold front push across the coast and
offshore Thursday night into Friday, with an extended period of CAA
into the weekend. This should allow for decent mixing as a colder
airmass overspreads relatively warmer SSTs. 00z/10 EPS probs for
wind gusts at or above 34kt increase to generally 30-60% later
Friday into early Saturday, and then to >60% Saturday aftn/evening.
Meanwhile, the 00z/10 GEFS probs are negligible. Local wind probs
for wind gusts at or in excess of 34kt are on average ~20% for the
Ches. Bay Friday night through Saturday evening, 20-50% for the
coastal waters, and 40-60% for the offshore waters. Taking a more
traditional analysis, the 00z/10 ECMWF/GFS/CMC have 925mb wind
speeds reaching a max of ~30kt a few hours either side of 00z Sunday
(7PM Saturday). This also occurs as 925mb temperatures dive to ~0C
along with pressure rises of +4-6mb/6hr, which could help boost the
wind a few knots higher into gale criteria. Combining this with the
probabilistic guidance, the scenario (at least as of this cycle)
favors an extended period of SCA conditions Friday into the weekend,
with a period of gale force gusts possible later Saturday/Saturday
evening as the coldest air aloft arrives. However, it is still far
enough in advance that confidence in exact details remains low. Seas
potentially build to 5-7ft in the coastal waters and 7-9ft beyond
20nm, with 3-5ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RMM/SW
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ