Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

262
FXUS61 KAKQ 060108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
908 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the tidal rivers of
eastern Virginia and the Currituck Sound.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly
below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze
headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with
widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast.

2) Depending on the amount of rainfall received this afternoon and
evening, there may be potential for heightened fire danger early
this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 905 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend
near or slightly below average early next week with the
potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks
to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible
away from the coast.

Convection has redeveloped ahead of the front in SE VA/NE NC
this evening, which is advancing through central VA at this
hours. The convection across the SE is producing locally heavy
rain, but no strong wind gusts given that the airmass is
convectively overturned with SBCIN/MLCIN in place and only a
few hundred J/kg of CAPE. Over 3" of rain have fallen in a
couple of spots in NE NC, but this is much needed given the
ongoing drought. Convection pushes to our SE by 11 PM or
midnight and the front moves south of the area by early Monday
morning. Cooler/drier air will filter in overnight behind the
cold front tonight.

Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average this
week. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 60s (lower 60s at the
coast) and mid 50s N to mid 60s S on Tuesday, as a secondary
cold front drops south through the area Tuesday providing a
reinforced shot of CAA. Strong high pressure builds to the north
of the area by midweek which will result in cooler conditions
Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s due to the NE
flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines both
Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-Thursday AM for
areas where the growing season has started. For reference, the
growing season has started 4/1 for all but the far NW counties,
which start 4/11. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have
the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around
freezing possible, with even upper 20s possible in the Piedmont.
This will depend on how much boundary layer decoupling occurs,
which will be primarily affected by how far south the high
builds. Temperatures gradually moderate back to near seasonal
averages late in the week while dry conditions persist.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Depending on the amount of rainfall received
this afternoon and evening, there may be potential for
heightened fire weather concerns early this week.

With the two cold fronts and high pressure building over the
area this week, there is potential for heightened fire weather
concerns as dewpoints drop significantly and minimum RH values
reach to the mid 20s to mid 30s for portions of the area.
However, winds are not expected to be more than 15-20 mph early
this week. With the large majority of the area under a moderate
drought, there may be some concern for fire weather by Tuesday
depending on the amount of rainfall received today. So far
today, areas from the Middle Peninsula W through the southside
RIC metro/Chesterfield/Tri-Cities SW through the I-85 corridor
has only has 0.1" or less, with generally 0.1-0.25" NW of this
corridor. These areas will see little to no additional rainfall.
Farther E, there has generally been 0.25- 0.5" with locally
higher amounts for areas that have had showers/tstms, and
showers/tstms are still expected to fill in across NE NC, so
these locations should have beneficial rainfall through the
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Sunday...

Showers and a few tstms tracked across the terminals earlier
today well ahead of a cold front. That cold front is entering
northern portions of the CWA, and showers (with embedded +RA)
have redeveloped INVOF ORF/ECG. Mainly VFR at RIC/SBY/PHF
through the period, with periodic MVFR conditions possible at
ORF/ECG through 02-04z (perhaps IFR at ECG in heavy rain). Winds
are still SW at this hour, but a wind shift to N/NW is expected
behind the cold front, with gusts to ~20kt at ORF and ECG. Dry
conditions and mainly clear skies return tonight into Monday. A
NW wind of 5-10kt Monday morning will become W in the aftn.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail Monday night through Friday. A
secondary dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 710 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect for all waters through Monday morning.

- Strong high pressure building in behind another cold front
  will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.

Light S winds early this evening will quickly turn to the N and
increase late this evening and early Monday morning behind a
cold front. Wind speeds will reach 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30
kt for all waters early Monday morning. These elevated wind
speeds will not last long (~6-8 hrs), but given the decent
pressure rises behind the front, should see all waters reach SCA
criteria. Therefore, have added all the tidal rivers and the
Currituck Sound to the SCA. Waves 3-4 ft on the Bay and 4-5 feet
on the coastal waters.

Winds quickly drop off after 7 AM Monday as transient high
pressure slides in overhead. Becoming breezy as winds turn back
to the SSW Monday evening ahead of another (dry) cold front
early Tuesday morning, then breezy out of the north behind it
Tues. An extra push of CAA and pressure rises are expected as
strong high pressure settles into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. NE winds during this period are forecast to increase
back to SCA levels for at least the southern coastal waters and
lower Ches. Bay. The onshore surge should also build seas to at
least 5ft for the southern waters as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-638-
     650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633-635>637.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...AC/JDM