Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

573
FXUS61 KAKQ 262321
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
721 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Thursday has trended drier, but scattered showers/storms remain
possible.

Temperatures trend warmer early next week with hot conditions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled conditions return Thursday through Saturday with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

2) Hot conditions return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled conditions return Thursday through
Saturday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Latest wx analysis shows high pressure over the area providing
pleasant conditions for late August today. Tonight, the high will
shift offshore as the next frontal boundary approaches with flow
aloft shifting to the SW. Models continue to agree on the front
moving slowly and staying to the NW of the area Thursday which will
suppress rain chances. The 12z CAMs are rather unimpressive with
respect to convection coverage and heavy rain threat, showing very
scattered showers on Thursday. Therefore, PoPs have been nudged
downward, now mostly slight chc across the area with chc in the
piedmont and far NE NC. The severe threat seems low for Thursday at
this time with only 20-25kt of 500mb flow and relatively weak mid-
level lapse rates. The boundary drops SE Thursday night and settles
into the eastern Carolinas and SE VA by Friday, but remains rather
diffuse. There is a strengthening jet core over New England, but
there is some uncertainty as to how well the RRQ of this feature
interacts with the surface boundary. Longer range CAMs shows a
larger coverage in showers/storms than Thursday, but with varying
QPF amounts. PoPs have decreased for areas north of I-64, now 25-50%
and remain 50-75% south of the I-64 corridor. The main threat will
be locally heavy rainfall, but a few severe storms with damaging
winds cannot be ruled out. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday, with a Slight Risk creeping
into NE NC Friday, but given the setup, the showers/tstms seem
scattered by nature causing a lower confidence in flooding. The
front won`t fully be out of the area by Saturday, lingering around
the NC/VA state line which could bring additional showers/storms to
the SE VA/NE NC area, especially in the afternoon (40-60% PoPs).

Seasonally hot and humid Thursday through Sunday with high
temperatures primarily in the mid to upper 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions return early next week.

Hot conditions return early next week as a 1.5-2 st dev 500mb ridge
builds from the Central Plains to the Southeast. NBM high
temperatures Monday through Wednesday are primarily in the lower to
mid 90s. However, 850mb temperatures of 19-21C and 1000-850mb
thickness schemes support highs in the mid to upper 90s. Global
ensembles support these temperatures, showing highs in the mid to
upper 90s. If the hotter temperatures are realized that will mean
deeper mixing, which should allow dewpoints to drop into the upper
60s/around 70F during peak heating. Regardless, this would support
heat indices into the lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 721 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals,
though isolated showers cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon.
Confidence is too low in timing and location to include mention of
any developing showers/storms at this time. Winds will remain
generally from the SE-S through tomorrow evening, becoming lighter
overnight before increasing to ~10 kts again tomorrow during
the day.

Outlook: A higher chance of showers/tstm is likely Friday with
lingering showers/tstms Saturday. Brief sub-VFR conditions
possible in any showers/tstms. Trending drier and mainly VFR by
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Bay this evening
  into tonight.

- Benign conditions return later Thursday along with daily storm
  chances.

High pressure persists today with benign marine conditions. Seas are
currently 1-2 ft with waves in the Bay of 1 ft or less.
Southeasterly winds are expected to increase briefly to 15-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt later this evening into the early morning hours,
prompting the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the Bay from
7pm to 4am. Southeasterly winds will subside Thursday morning, but
become breezy once again, though staying sub-SCA, during the
afternoon. Lighter winds will become southwesterly on Friday, then
turn onshore to start the weekend. Seas will build to 3 ft (4ft well
offshore) on Thursday with waves in the Bay becoming 2-3ft with the
increase in winds. Expecting waves to return to ~1 ft on Friday with
seas subsiding to 2 ft.

There is a moderate rip current risk on Thursday for the northern
beaches due to nearshore waves building to 3 ft with a 8-9 second
dominant period. Expect low rip risks to return for all beaches into
the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...JKP/SW