Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

484
FXUS61 KAKQ 230703
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
303 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated full discussion. Confidence in heavy rainfall and
strong to severe storms continues to increase today as a
shortwave/MCV moves across the area. A Slight Risk for Severe
Storms has been introduced roughly along and east of I-95. A
Flood Watch has been issued for the urban areas of SE VA from
1-10 PM today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is increasing confidence in numerous
showers/storms this afternoon and early evening, especially east of
I-95. There is the potential for scattered strong to severe storms
and localized flash flooding in urban/flood prone areas. The main
severe threat is damaging wind gusts, though an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out. A Flood Watch has been issued for the urban
areas of SE VA.

2) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday
night into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is increasing confidence in numerous
showers/storms this afternoon and early evening, especially east of
I-95. There is the potential for scattered strong to severe storms
and localized flash flooding in urban/flood prone areas. The main
severe threat is damaging wind gusts, though an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out. A Flood Watch has been issued for the urban
areas of SE VA.

Yesterday`s convection has moved offshore and weakened, leaving
behind a few showers across SE VA/NE NC. However, the actual cold
front is still to the north of the FA. In addition, an upper
shortwave/MCV is clearly evident on GOES satellite imagery over
eastern TN. While the models have had varying solutions regarding
the eventual evolution of this feature over the past day, there is
now very good agreement that it will impact our area (especially
along/east of I-95). As the aforementioned cold front gradually
drops south through the area later today, a surface low will form
and deepen along the front as that upper level feature now in TN
tracks over the area. Even though convection impacted the area
yesterday, temps should rise to near 90F in SE VA/NE NC with dew pts
in the lower 70s. This will allow for plenty of sfc-based
instability (~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) to develop. Early/mid aftn temps
may only be in the 70s NW of RIC with the front bisecting the area.
The low is progged to enter SE VA during the afternoon, coinciding
with peak heating. Showers are expected in the Piedmont by late
morning as the shortwave/MCV approaches. Then, tstms will quickly
develop along and ahead of it during the aftn and become fairly
widespread as they get closer to the coast. The most likely timing
for storms is 1-4 PM along the I-95 Corridor, and 2-6 PM closer to
the coast. There is a threat for damaging wind gusts given
sufficient sfc heating and enhanced mid/upper flow which will allow
for some degree of storm organization, especially near the coast. In
addition, there is a low but nonzero tornado threat near the center
of the low (especially near the coast) where the LLVL flow could be
locally backed. SPC has introduced Slight Risk for severe storms
(Level 2 out of 5) near and east of I-95.

In addition to the severe threat, there is a threat for locally heavy
rainfall, with the greatest concern near the coast along and a
little bit to the north of the low track where some training of
storms appears likely. With PWATs increasing to ~2.0", rainfall
rates will be efficient. Both the REFS and HREF ensemble PMMs show
an area of 2-4" near the coast, with the REFS being a bit farther
south than the HREF. Also, the HREF has up to 30-50% 40km
neighborhood probs of 3"/3 hours for most coastal zones N of the VA-
NC border. So even though antecedent conditions have been dry, have
issued a targeted Flood Watch for SE VA (mainly for the urban
areas). These areas saw 1-2" of rain yesterday and localized totals
of 3 to 5 inches are definitely possible in a few spots. This
roughly aligns with WPCs Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall (Level 2
out of 4). All convection should end by mid to late evening as the
low moves offshore and drier air moves in behind the front.
Comfortable tonight with lows in the upper 50s-60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday
night into the weekend.

A drier airmass will take over behind the cold front, keeping
Wednesday dry. Temperatures won`t be much cooler though, with highs
near normal in the mid to upper 80s across the area Wednesday. By
Wednesday night, winds will quickly shift back to the SE-S and bring
back normal June humidity amd temperatures. For the remainder of the
week, a more typical summertime pattern sets up. Upper heights
gradually rise on Thu/Fri, with dry wx continuing on Thu and
isolated aftn/evening storms possible Fri (mainly N/NW). There is a
better chc of tstms Saturday aftn/evening as a more well defined
shortwave crosses the area. Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s and
low 90s, with overnight lows in the 60s to near 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday...

The main area of tstms has moved offshore, with mainly dry
conditions expected to prevail through much of the morning. The
only exception to this will be a few showers (potentially with
brief heavy rain) between now and 08z across SE VA/NE NC.
A few hours worth of IFR stratus is possible (mainly at
RIC/SBY) from now-12z behind the rain. A low pressure system is
progged to cross the area this afternoon-early evening, which
will result in numerous showers/tstms from midday-early evening.
Highest confidence in thunder is at ORF/PHF/ECG, where VCTS has
been included. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds of
30-40+ kt, especially in SE VA/NE NC. As such, additional flight
restrictions are likely later today, initially in SHRA/TSRA,
and then with lingering low clouds into the evening (especially
ORF/ECG). Conditions improve back to VFR tonight as drier air
moves in from the N-NW.

Outlook:  Mainly dry/VFR Wednesday. Late day showers/storms
possible Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front will move across the local waters this afternoon. Decent
  cold air advection forecast for behind the front has prompted
  the issuance of SCAs for the Bay and lower James this evening
  through early Wednesday morning.

- Benign, sub-SCA conditions are expected for much of the rest of
  the week.

A few light to moderate showers remain across the lower Bay and
coastal waters this morning in the wake of the strong convection
that moved through last night. Winds outside of storms have relaxed,
with SSW winds of generally 10-15 kts being observed across the
local waters. A low pressure system is currently moving across the
Appalachians in northern West Virginia/southwestern PA. The
associated cold front is slowly approaching the local waters from
the west, and this feature will be the focus of today`s weather, for
both winds and thunderstorms.

Winds will remain around 10-15kt through the morning ahead of the
front. Another surface low is forecast to develop along the front as
it moves through the area, which introduces some uncertainty in
winds ahead of the front. Have kept sub-SCA winds across all waters
through the day today, but some guidance is suggesting that the
gradient in the vicinity of the aforementioned low may tighten and
bring a period of stronger winds. Some of this guidance may be
showing the convectively driven winds in the strong to severe storms
that are expected to develop with this low, which is why they have
not been included. In-house wind probs also do not support rapidly
increasing winds ahead of the front. In regards to the storms
tomorrow, some of these storms may produce winds in excess of 50kt+
and isolated waterspouts, so SMWs will handle this. The timeframe
for any storms moving across the local waters will be between 2 pm
to just after sunset (+/- an hour or two).

In the wake of the front, a good surge of CAA is expected to push
across the waters. Local wind probs for sustained winds of 18 kts
across the Bay have increased to 70-90%, so SCAs have been issued to
capture this brief NW wind surge between 20z-08z for the Bay, and
00z-05z for the lower James. A few gusts to ~25 kt are possible
across the coastal waters, but confidence is not high enough to
include an SCA for these marine zones at this time, especially since
we are not expecting rapidly building seas due to the not quite as
favorable wind direction (NW). After this brief wind surge, winds
will quickly decrease across all waters as high pressure builds back
over the region, with generally benign marine conditions expected
for the remainder of the week.

While winds are forecast to increase late tomorrow, they will be
parallel to the coast then becoming offshore, so the Rip Current
Risk will drop to low. Low rip risk will likely remain through late
week with the more benign conditions currently forecast.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for VAZ089-090-097-098-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ639.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...NB