Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

932
FXUS61 KAKQ 231837
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
237 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A backdoor front may trigger isolated, light
showers tomorrow. Otherwise, warm and dry weather continues.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as
a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure
tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A backdoor front may trigger isolated, light
showers tomorrow. Otherwise, warm and dry weather continues.

A backdoor cold front gradually drops from NE to SW tomorrow.
Meanwhile, a mid level ridge to the west dampens as it pushes into
the local region. The 12z suite of CAMs pretty consistently show the
front triggering isolated to scattered showers across most of the
area in the afternoon. However, they also depict a deep dry layer
that rain would have to overcome to reach the ground. Do
believe that some rain will actually make it, but am not
confident that showers will be as widespread as the CAMs depict.
Nevertheless, there will probably still be isolated showers
with very light rain. Only expecting a trace to a couple
hundredths out of this. At a minimum, the area will see an
increase in cloud cover with the front. Should be able to warm
up nicely before the front drops too far. Forecasting highs in
the mid to upper 80s for most of the area, 70s for the Eastern
Shore. Of course even a timing difference of just a couple hours
could make a big difference in highs, as temps will drop behind
it.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into
Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a
wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler
temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

A cold front with developing low pressure along it passes through
the local area Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Starting off
generally dry Saturday morning, then PoPs increase from W to E
during the afternoon into the evening, continuing overnight in the
east. While the 12z suite of both the global and the few high-res
that go out that far do indicate that rain should be rather
widespread, this event is far from a drought-buster. There`s just
not much moisture in place ahead of the front, and it`s not bringing
moisture with it. LREF probs for even just 0.25" of rain are mostly
in the 35-50% range. Can`t rule out a few spots being blessed with
0.5" of rain with the highest chance being over the Eastern Shore
where there`s ~35% prob in the LREF. Still some uncertainty in what
happens with the developing low. ECMWF is a little slower to get the
low and the front away from the coast. If this is the case, showers
could linger at the coast on Sunday.

Will see a range in temps on Sat with highs varying between the
upper 80s in the far south and as low as the mid 60s on the MD
Eastern Shore. A lot cooler behind the front on Sunday with highs in
the 60s across the entire FA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/23 TAF period. Seeing some
development of mid level Cu clouds this afternoon on satellite
near RIC and SBY, but otherwise remaining mostly clear. FEW
high-based clouds expected overnight and tomorrow morning. Will
likely see an increase in cloud cover at the very end of the
period as a backdoor front drops into the area. Light and
variable winds expected for the bulk of the period with the
exception of a few gusts at ECG this afternoon.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front could trigger a few showers/tstms
Friday aftn (20-40% chc). Low pressure tracks along the
boundary Sat afternoon into Saturday night, bringing an
increased chc of showers and flight restrictions. High pressure
builds to the N Sunday with an onshore component to the wind
persisting along the coast, which could result in persistent
lower cigs. VFR and dry conditions return by Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 155 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday.

- Solid SCA conditions expected Saturday night and Sunday as low
  pressure deepens offshore.

High pressure is centered off the SE CONUS this afternoon with
mainly light (5-10 kt) westerly winds. Waves are around 1 ft with
seas 2-3 ft offshore. Given very weak synoptic flow regime in place,
expect local sea/bay breeze circulations to dominate afternoon/early
evening wind behavior. E winds will briefly increase to 10-15 with
gusts to 20 kt, mainly across the southern Ches Bay and adjacent
rivers, during this late afternoon as flow turns onshore. A backdoor
front translates westward on Friday with easterly flow prevailing
across the marine zones by mid afternoon. A few showers or an
isolated storm are possible along and ahead of the frontal boundary
and could result in briefly gusty winds given the very dry low level
airmass. A front and surface low will move across the waters on
Saturday with low pressure expected to strengthen offshore Saturday
night into Sunday. The latest guidance is generally in good
agreement regarding this scenario, showing low pressure deepening
off the MD/DE coast overnight. E winds strengthen and become NE with
time early Sunday morning. Local wind probabilities for 34 kt gusts
are not overly impressive but do rise to around 40%, especially for
the northern coastal waters, Sunday into Sunday night. Waves will
build Saturday night and Sunday to 3-4 ft before falling back to 2-3
ft on Monday. Seas will be highly dependent on the location and
strength of offshore low pressure. Currently have seas 6-9 ft N and
5-8 ft S by early Sunday evening with heights slowly falling off
through the day Monday. High pressure briefly dominates Monday night
into early Tuesday before the next system approaches from the west.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RHR