Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

825
FXUS61 KAKQ 181925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
325 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures have trended a bit colder both Sunday night and
Monday night, but otherwise no major changes to the forecast.

The Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect until 1 AM for
the northern coastal waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably hot (inland) this afternoon with cooler weather
along the immediate coast and across the Eastern Shore.

2) A cold front crosses the area Sunday morning bringing light rain
showers and much cooler temperatures. Fire weather concerns are
possible on Monday.

3) Patchy frost and/or a light freeze are looking increasingly
likely for Tuesday morning. A warming trend then begins mid to late
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably hot (inland) this afternoon with cooler
weather along the immediate coast and across the Eastern Shore.

As of 2 PM this afternoon, a backdoor cold front is located over
northeastern portions of the forecast area. Cooler, onshore flow has
developed in the wake of the front, with the coldest temperatures
(50s and 60s) across the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Lower clouds and
patchy fog have also developed along the immediate coast from the
MD/DE border down to Wallops Island, VA. Inland, temperatures remain
similar to the past few days with readings ranging from the mid 80s
to around 90. Remaining dry tonight, but cloud cover will increase
as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Very mild tonight
with temperatures likely staying in the 60s or 70s through sunrise
as a SW winds picks up ahead of the front.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the area Sunday morning
bringing light rain showers and much cooler temperatures. Fire
weather concerns are possible on Monday.

A strong cold front moves through the area from NW to SE during the
morning hours. In the wake of the front, NW winds will gust to 25 to
30 mph (potentially a few gusts of 35+ mph). Temperatures will
rapidly drop 15 to 20 degrees with the frontal passage, from the 60s
to lower 70s back into the 50s. Temperatures will try to recover
across the western half of the area (upper 50s to lower 60s) in the
late afternoon as we get some clearing. As for rain chances
tomorrow, still expecting a decent coverage of light rain showers
from morning into the early to mid afternoon. Unfortunately,
showers are expected to remain light with total QPF only
averaging ~0.10" to 0.20" (highest NW, lowest east).

A much cooler and drier airmass will move into place behind the
passing cold front Sunday night into early Monday. Lows inland
Sunday night will drop into the upper 30s to around 40, with perhaps
some mid 30s. A secondary cold front drops through the area Monday
morning into Monday afternoon. Will note that some of the high-res
guidance does show a few showers along this front Monday, but
forecast soundings appear to dry for a majority of this to make it
to the surface. Much drier air filters in behind this front, with RH
values falling to 20-25% with perhaps some RH values in the upper
teens. In addition, breezy conditions are expected and winds could
gust to 20 to 25mph. Monday will be another day we will need to
watch closely for fire weather concerns, especially if we get
less rainfall on Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Patchy frost and/or a light freeze are looking
increasingly likely for Tuesday morning. A warming trend then begins
mid to late week.

Strong high pressure builds NW of the are Monday, eventually
settling over the area Monday night into Tuesday. A light freeze (30-
32F) is becoming increasingly likely for inland locations,
especially over our NW Piedmont. Latest NBM probs depict ~30 to 50%
chances for temperatures of 32F or less Tuesday morning roughly
inland/NW of US-360 and ~20 to 30% for 30F or less across far
northwestern Louisa County. Freeze Watches may be needed on a future
shift for our NW Piedmont for Tuesday AM. Elsewhere (away from the
immediate coast) temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s
leading to at least the potential for frost formation. A very dry
airmass may help to keep the frost from becoming too widespread.

By Tuesday afternoon, high pressure will eventually move back off
the SE coast and temperatures will begin to increase (though still
remaining below average, especially on the coast and the Eastern
Shore). By the middle and through the end of next week temperatures
will return into the 70s and 80s. However, another front may try to
drop south across the area on Wednesday into Wednesday night
bringing at least the chance for a few showers and potentially
falling temperatures due to onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Generally VFR/dry conditions across the region this afternoon
with the lone exception being in the vicinity of SBY where
there is IFR stratus. Winds are easterly (~10 knots) along the
coast and S to SW (5 to 10 knots) inland. IFR stratus will
drift closer to SBY throughout this afternoon, eventually
reaching the airport ~20-21z and lingering into the early overnight
hours. A cold front approaches from the west tonight and
crosses the area Sunday morning. Clouds increase ahead of the
front tonight and winds become gusty out of the SW. The
approaching front and increasing SW winds should help to return
SBY to VFR conditions after 03z. The front crosses the area
between ~10 to 14z, with light rain showers along and behind the
front. CIGs may approach MVFR and linger around MVFR into the
afternoon. Winds become gusty out of the N to NW with gusts of
20-25+ knots possible.

Outlook: Showers and lower CIGs dissipate Sunday afternoon, with
conditions returning Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty NW
winds are anticipated Monday afternoon. Another front may drop
south across the area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing at least
a low-end chance for rain showers and increasing cloud cover.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- The Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect now through 1 AM
  for the northern coastal waters.

- Solid SCA conditions expected Sunday ahead of and behind a
  strong cold front with a brief period of gale force gusts
  immediately behind the front.

A weak backdoor cold front remains over the northern coastal waters
as high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and a weak surface low
off the coast remain in influence. Dense marine fog is evident on
satellite imagery and coastal cameras, showing visibilities at 1
nautical mile or less for the northern coastal waters. A Marine
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect, now through 1 AM (05z),
eroding as the front pushes north as a warm front tonight. Winds are
currently E around 10-15 kt, with waves and seas 2-3 ft.

A strong cold front approaches from the NW late tonight and crosses
the coast Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Winds will
shift out of the S and increase to 15-20 kt later tonight ahead of
the front, then becoming NNW behind the front. The latest models
maintain a sharp pressure rise immediately behind the front and
950mb wind speeds of 30-40 kt. Local wind probs continue to show a
40-60% chance of wind gusts to 34 kt, but only for a short duration
<3 hr. Small Craft Advisories continue with no changes this forecast
period for the frontal passage and SMWs will be issued if needed for
any gale forced gusts. The pressure gradient slackens quickly later
Sunday aftn and evening with SCAs ending during this time. Seas
build to 4-5ft in the coastal waters and 5-6ft in the offshore
waters/southern coastal waters, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

The wind becomes W 5-15kt briefly Sunday night, and then NW 10-15kt
Monday. A secondary cold front crosses the coast later Monday aftn,
with a subsequent NNW surge following for Monday night. At this time
the Ches. Bay has the best potential for additional SCA flags by
Monday night. High pressure passes across the region Tuesday and
settles offshore by the middle of next week with sub-SCA conditions
expected. 3-4ft seas early next week should subside to 2-3ft by the
middle of the week, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay subsiding to 1-
2ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
While RIC may approach 90F on Saturday, no additional records
are expected with the record being 95. It will be much cooler
closer to the coast, and nowhere near records.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ639.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/HET
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ/KMC
CLIMATE...LKB