Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

568
FXUS61 KAKQ 160929
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
529 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SPC introduced a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) today for portions of
the Maryland Eastern Shore due to the potential for strong to
severe wind gusts. Still watching the potential for coastal low
development later this weekend into next weekend, details
remain highly uncertain at this time. Gale Warnings have been
issued for most of the local waters with Gale Watches for the
upper rivers.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Record to near record warmth and breezy today with gusty showers
(isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front
tonight into Saturday morning.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible
Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont.

3) There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a
potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding
back towards the local area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near record warmth and breezy today with
gusty showers (isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold
front tonight into Saturday morning.

Early this morning, a shallow backdoor cold front that pushed south
yesterday has stalled across the Carolinas and is beginning to lift
back northward as a warm front. Satellite and surface observations
show low stratus and patchy fog in the wake of the front due to a
light onshore flow. In addition, light to moderate rain showers have
developed across northern portions of the forecast area, with the
highest coverage from the Northern Neck over to the MD Eastern
Shore. Any low clouds and/or fog dissipates rather quickly later
this morning as the front lifts north as a warm front and winds
become southerly.

An expansive deep upper trough digging across the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley today will drive rapid, low-level warm air advection
over the Mid Atlantic. Highs will soar into the mid to upper 80s
this afternoon, with a few spots potentially approaching 90F (upper
70s to lower 80s at the immediate Atlantic coast and across the
Eastern Shore). These values are ~15 to 20 degrees above normal and
will challenge record highs, see the climate section below for more
details.

Still expecting the daytime hours to remain dry area-wide. A strong
cold front approaches from the NW this evening, and is forecast to
cross the area late tonight into Saturday morning. CAMs still depict
a thin, strongly forced line of showers and isolated storms late
this evening into tonight. The overnight timing and limited
instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg or less) should keep the overall
severe threat low for a majority of the area. However, strong
kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with
wind gusts of 30 to 40+ mph possible as the front comes through. We
will need to keep an eye on far northeastern portions of the area
(MD Eastern Shore) where there may be slightly better instability
and better kinematics. SPC has this area highlighted in a Slight
Risk (level 2 out of 5) with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for areas
north of I-64 for the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. The
best dynamics for severe storms will likely be north of the local
area.

For Saturday, the front crosses the area and moves off the coast by
the morning, triggering a sharp surge of cold air advection. Daytime
highs will be achieved during the early morning hours, with
temperatures struggling to get out of the mid 50s by the afternoon
hours. Deep mixing in the wake of the front will promote breezy NW
winds, with gusts of 25 to 35+ mph inland and 40 to 45+ mph along
the immediate coast. Rain chances hang on into the late
morning/early afternoon hours (highest SE) as the upper shortwave
does not cross the area until 18z or later.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with
frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont.

Strong NW flow aloft in the wake of the cold front will usher in the
coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday.
Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there
will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer
to the coast. With the surface high forecast to be 1035mb+, kept the
theme from the previous forecast and undercut NBM lows by a few
degrees in the northern Piedmont where decoupling is more probable
closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dewpoints,
at least patchy frost will be possible there. Closer to the coast,
lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Mostly sunny Sunday
(potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees
below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Additional frost
potential is possible Sunday night into Monday morning across the
northern Piedmont with temperatures again dropping back into the
30s.


KEY MESSAGE 3...There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next
week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or
retrograding back towards the local area.

Considerable ensemble/deterministic model spread exists heading into
early to mid next week. Strong high pressure wedges down from the
north, while an upper cutoff low develops off the Southeast/Mid
Atlantic coast. Guidance continues to struggle with how close this
coastal system remains to the shoreline, with some solutions having
this low retrograding back towards the local area by mid to late
week. For now, have low end (slight chance) rain chances along the
immediate coast through much of next week, but this will be refined
as models get a better handle on this coastal system. Breezy N to NE
winds will likely persist through much of next week, with the
highest gusts along the immediate coast. Near to slightly below
average temperatures are currently in the forecast for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...

Early this morning, a cold front is situated to the south of the
local area, with widespread MVFR to IFR CIGs in its wake. CIGs
will continue to deteriorate early this morning, with LIFR
possible at RIC, ORF, and PHF as we approach ~10-13z. In
addition, light rain showers are possible across far northern
portions of the area early this morning, with the highest
chances at SBY. Light rain at SBY will likely keep CIGs from
dropping to IFR until closer to sunrise. The cold front lifts
back to the north as a warm front later this morning, leading to
an increasing S-SW wind and a rapid improvement in flight
conditions back to VFR ~14-16z. VFR conditions are then expected
through much of the remainder of the forecast period, though a
strong cold front approaching from the NW late will allow for
increasing rain (and potential thunderstorm) chances this
evening into tonight. S-SW winds may be gusty at times later
this morning into this evening with gusts of 20 to 25 knots
possible.

Outlook: Deteriorating flight conditions return later tonight
through Saturday evening as the stronger cold front crosses the
area. Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected
Saturday morning into the afternoon, especially in the east.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 525 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- SW winds increase today but should largely remain sub-SCA
  through this afternoon.

- A strong cold front crosses the local waters tonight, bringing
  SCA conditions. SCAs are in effect for this surge. A brief
  period of gusts up to 35 kt is possible immediately behind the
  front.

- Gale conditions are expected from Saturday morning through at least
  Sunday night with the potential for Gale conditions lingering
  well into next week. Gale Warnings are in effect for most of
  the local waters with Gale Watches in effect for the upper
  rivers.

- Widespread coastal flooding is possible next week with the
  potential for several days of flooding beginning Sunday and
  continuing into at least mid-week.


Winds this morning have turned to the S/SE as a warm front lifts
north across the local waters. Light S winds early this morning
become SW and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later this
morning through this afternoon. While most guidance keeps winds sub-
SCA, some guidance shows portions of the middle Ches Bay and
northern coastal waters potentially reaching low-end SCA conditions
by late this afternoon into this evening. As such, have SCAs
starting at 7 PM for these locations. Elsewhere, SCAs start at 10 PM
this evening to account for N winds behind a strong cold front
associated with an area of low pressure moving into northern New
England. Will note that given the strength of the front (pressure
rises of around 5 mb in 6 hours), winds may abruptly become N and
gust to 35 kt for a couple of hours. However, given the short
duration of this surge and generally low confidence in this surge,
think SMWs are a better way to handle the surge.

The stronger CAA lags behind the front as a strong area of high
pressure (~1038 mb) builds into the southern Plains. As the high
gradually gets closer to the region, the pressure gradient tightens
with N winds increasing to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35-40 kt Sat
morning. The 00z model guidance (GFS/EURO/CMC) is in greater
agreement that a coastal low will likely form along this front by
late Sat/Sat night as a piece of vorticity becomes cutoff across the
region. If a cutoff low does form aloft, the surface low underneath
will likely struggle to move much through mid-late week next week
given weak flow aloft underneath a large, broad upper level ridge.
As such, models show this coastal low meandering through mid-late
week next week (some even longer). If this occurs, the local waters
would remain under a tight pressure gradient between the coastal low
off the Southeast coast and strong high pressure building into
interior New England. As such, a prolonged period of NE Gale
conditions (winds initially become NE Sun morning) could persist
well into next week with the best chance across the southern coastal
waters. Elevated winds, seas, beach erosion, and tidal flooding are
all possible. For now, have issued Gale Warnings for all of the
local waters except the upper rivers beginning Sat morning and
continuing through Sun night. However, extensions of the Gale
Warnings are likely (especially across the southern waters) into
midweek. For now, have limited the Gale Warning to six forecast
periods (per collaboration with neighboring offices) and will likely
keep extending by one or two forecast periods at a time (if
confidence allows) with each major forecast update. Additionally,
have Gale Watches for the upper rivers from Sat evening through Sat
night given lower confidence and a later time of arrival for the
potential Gale conditions.

Confidence is lower in the wave/sea forecast than the winds.
However, currently have seas building to 8-12 ft north and 9-13 ft
south (12-15+ ft offshore) by Sat night into Sun. Meanwhile, waves
build to 4-8 ft across the Ches Bay (highest across the lower Ches
Bay). Will note that if a period of prolonged NE winds at Gale
conditions does develop and persist for several days, seas could be
higher than currently forecast. Given the building seas, High Surf
Advisories will likely be needed along at least the Outer Banks and
Virginia Beach and potentially across the Eastern Shore as well.
However, confidence in the start time for 8+ ft nearshore waves is
low before Sat night (fourth period). As such, have opted to hold
off on High Surf Advisories for this update.

COASTAL FLOODING...

Given the prolonged period of strong NE winds next week,
widespread coastal flooding is possible. Tidal anomalies begin
to increase Saturday with mainly nuisance flooding possible
along the lower Ches Bay. By Sunday, winds become NE, resulting
in the potential for widespread minor flooding with localized
moderate flooding possible at a few locations. The current
tidal forecast only goes through Monday, however, widespread
minor to moderate flooding is possible Monday and will continue
to be possible into at least the middle of next week. Will note
that moderate to major flooding is possible, particularly if NE
winds trend strong and/or look to linger several days. Coastal
communities should be aware of the potential for multiple days
of coastal flooding with each high tide next week and stay tuned
as the forecast gets refined and details get ironed out.

&&

.CLIMATE...
- Record High Temperatures Fri 10/16:

- RIC: 90 (1897) (latest in season 90F on record)
- ORF: 87 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/14/2026)
- SBY: 85 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939)
- ECG: 86 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ630-650-652-654.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ631-632-634-656-658.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-
     634-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ633.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633-
     639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ639.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RMM
CLIMATE...LKB