Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

620
FXUS61 KAKQ 250538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
138 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances for late tonight into Saturday have increased.
Otherwise, no significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another batch of rain expected overnight and through
Saturday, with the highest rain totals across NE NC. Highs
Saturday remain below normal, mainly in the 70s to near 80.


2) Predominately dry with some isolated late day showers and
storms Sunday and Monday. Higher rain chances return Tuesday
into Wednesday; strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 940 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Another batch of rain expected overnight and through
Saturday, with the highest rain totals across NE NC. Highs
Saturday remain below normal, mainly in the 70s to near 80.

Latest WX analysis indicates a nearly stationary draped across
coastal Carolinas, with westerly flow aloft. A low amplitude
upper level trough is in place from the mid-South into the
Eastern Great Lakes/interior northeast, and is forecast to
amplify to the west of the Appalachians overnight, eventually
dropping SE across the region on Saturday. The flow aloft looks
to back slightly later tonight, to the WSW, helping to lift the
moisture and precip back north into the local area. Already
noting some light showers pushing across the piedmont early this
evening, with CAMs showing likely to categorical PoPs into
south central VA and NE NC after midnight. The models also
support raising PoPs to 40-60% as far north as metro RIC, though
rainfall amounts will tend to average 0.10-0.20" or less that
far to the north, typical with this weak CAD pattern. Meanwhile,
QPF amounts over far southern VA and NE NC will average 0.50" to
1.00" with some locally higher amounts possible in NE NC.
Thunderstorms look quite limited north of the VA- NC border, but
will bring slight chances into far southeastern VA for in case
a few elevated cells develop where the NAM/GFS depict ~200 J/Kg
of MU CAPE late tonight into Sat aftn.

Rain chances and rather cool high temperatures continue
Saturday, especially south. Lows tonight will mostly be in the
60s with some lower 70s in NE NC and at the coast in SE VA.
Highs Saturday will range from the mid to upper 70s across the
south, with some lower 80s NE (where some partial sun is most
likely). Drying out Sat night as the upper trough moves
offshore, with lows mainly in the 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with just isolated late day showers/storms
Sunday/Monday, with higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday;
strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday.


Weak sfc high pressure is forecast to settle over the region
Sunday-Monday, bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures
with highs in the mid 80s to around 90F. Mainly dry outside of
isolated to widely scattered late day convection. Storm chances
increase later Tuesday as a strong upper level trough dives SE
from Canada and lingers across the NE and mid-Atlantic states
through at least Wednesday. The best chance for widespread
storms appears to be late Tuesday afternoon/evening though with
a lot of uncertainty at this range. With the strength of trough,
and even a potential sfc low <1000mb, there will be the
potential for severe weather, especially if the timing lines up
with the greatest instability, and SPC Day 5 Outlook has the
local area in a Slight Risk.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Saturday...

Showers have overspread the area once again bringing impacts to
all the terminals except SBY. Rain rates are mostly light,
though a there have been a few pockets of moderate rain. Still
anticipating that CIGs will drop (except at SBY) this morning as
weak low pressure develops along the coast of NC. Mainly MVFR,
but IFR could impact ECG and potentially ORF between ~12-16z.
Conditions improve this afternoon and evening. Rain tapers off
for most terminals by mid morning, but will linger in the
southeast as late as 03z Sun. VFR conditions are expected to
return to all terminals by early Sun morning.

Outlook:
Dry/VFR conditions returning for Sunday. Isolated to widely
scattered late aftn/evening evening showers/storms are possible
Monday, with a higher chance for storms Tuesday aftn/evening
with the next front approaching the region from the NNW.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected to prevail in onshore flow
  through the weekend.

A frontal boundary remains stalled south of the area with
easterly/onshore winds averaging 10-15 kt. Waves in the bay are 1-2
ft and 2-3 ft near the mouth. Offshore, seas are 2-4 ft. Small Craft
Advisories have been cancelled as seas fell below 5 ft. Winds
decrease to 5-10 kt tonight and linger in that range through
Saturday. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to form along the
front and translate eastward late Saturday night into Sunday. Winds
will transition to NE then N 10-15 kt by sunrise Sunday morning. A
brief period of SCA conditions is possible with this system,
especially if the low is a bit deeper than currently progged.
Generally benign conditions are forecast on Monday. The gradient is
expected to tighten on Tuesday ahead of the next front. S and SW
winds increase to 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay and 20-25 kt offshore. A
few strong storms are possible Tuesday into Wednesday with gusty
winds the primary threat.

There is a Moderate rip risk across the southern beaches on
Saturday. Low rip risk is forecast for all beaches on Sunday but
will need to watch the track and intensity of the aforementioned
weak low.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RHR