Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

104
FXUS61 KAKQ 061901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
301 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion and aviation sections.

Have increased storm chances for Sunday slightly.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC
from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

2) A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing
a chance for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms.

3) Warm, but seasonable, Monday and Tuesday. Temps
warm into the mid to upper 90s by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 140 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for
portions of NE NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

Ongoing drought conditions, lack of widespread wetting rain leading
to low soil moisture, and abnormally dry dead fuels have led to high
levels of fire danger in Northeast North Carolina. Additionally,
there is lower moisture content in live coastal fuels. These factors
are combined with hot temperatures today and Sunday and abnormally
low RH values (25-30% today and 25-35% Sunday). NC Forest Service
has requested an Increased Fire Danger Statement (IFD) for today and
Sunday, which was already issued with the overnight package. The IFD
will be handles on a day-by-day basis, so Sunday`s will not be
issued until after today`s expires this evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot temperatures continue through Sunday with
highs in the lower to mid 90s.

Another warm day forecast for tomorrow with highs climbing into
the mid 90s south of I-64 and the low 90s north. A backdoor
cold front approaches the northern border tomorrow afternoon as
a shortwave trough pivots out to sea over New England. Ahead of
the front, isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon and
evening hours. CAMs are in pretty good agreement on coverage and
location of said storms. Starting out with a few storms between
Palmyra and Farmville, then spreading south and east roughly
along the US-460 corridor. A few isolated showers could linger
across far southern portions of area as late as midnight-2am.
There is a low-end potential for isolated strong to severe
storms. Surface heating will provide steep low level lapse rates
and there`s just enough moisture for modest instability. Main
threat would be damaging wind gusts should stronger storms form.
The SPC has placed most of the area in a Marginal Risk with the
exception of the Eastern Shore. The backdoor cold front will
then progress through the area Sunday night.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing a
chance for afternoon and early evening storms, followed by briefly
cooler temperatures early next week.

The local FA likely ends up north of the backdoor front on Monday,
resulting in onshore flow and slightly cooler temperatures. The
Eastern Shore, peninsulas, and southside Hampton Roads will have
cooler highs in the 70s while inland locations warm well into the
80s. Onshore flow continues into Tuesday, but taking on a southerly
component as the sfc high slides SE. Similar temps expected Tuesday,
though a bit warmer at the coast (around 80F). Temps in the 90s
return mid to late week as an UL ridge builds overhead and sfc flow
returns to the SW. There is a non-zero chance of seeing high
near 100F toward the end of the week. However, current ensemble
guidance has probs less than 30% for temps greater than or
equal to 100F. This late week period into the weekend could be
a little unsettled as well with daily chance of
showers/thunderstorms. Does not appear to be widespread
measurable rain at this time, though.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...

High pressure is slowly being suppressed to the SE as a front
gradually moving towards the Mid-Atlantic region. VFR conditions
prevail at the terminals for the 18z/06 TAF period. High level
BKN cloud cover breaks up later this evening, then largely SCT
high level clouds persist through the rest of the period. There
is a very low chance of a shower at SBY late tonight, but precip
likely stays north of the terminal. SW winds become westerly
late in the period.

Outlook... The next chance of showers/storms (20-40% chance)
arrives ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon/evening. High
pressure builds across New England in the wake of the cold front
Monday/Tuesday with VFR conditions expected. High pressure
shifts offshore Wednesday with a chance (30-40%) of diurnal
showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- SW  flow is expected to increase tonight ahead of an approaching
cold front, but conditions should remain below SCA levels

- The cold front drop southward through the area waters on Sunday
evening and exit the region by Monday morning.  Expect a return to
NE flow behind the front with small craft conditions possible.

A strong area of high pressure continues to remain anchored in the
western Atlantic off the SE US coast this afternoon. Meanwhile a
cold front slowly approaches from the Great Lakes and Northern
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Currently, winds remain light in the
10 - 15 kt range.  As the cold front begins to approach the area
later this evening, expect to see the SW flow increase into the 15 -
20 kt range for the Bay and near coastal areas and closer to 25 kt
over the open ocean.  Guidance suggest wind just in the near shore
coastal waters could briefly gust to 25 kt, but the time frame looks
very short, just a few hours, and the probabilities of reaching 25kt
are less than 25%.  So have not raised the SCA flag at this time.

The winds will relax a bit on Sunday as the gradient between the
front and the area of high pressure slides southward.  But once the
front crosses the area late on Sunday off the MD coast and through
the night along the VA and NC coast, the flow will turn north to
northeast as a strong area of high pressure builds down the coast.
Expect winds to be SCA levels initially behind the front, but then
the persistent NE flow on Monday into Monday night will allow seas
to build to 4 - 6 FT in the ocean waters.  SCA flags will likely be
needed in the coastal waters and portions of the Chesapeake Bay.

By Tuesday, the area of high pressure will slide off the coast and
turn the winds more SE.  For Wednesday to Friday, the area of high
pressure moves SE and anchors near where the current area of high
pressure is in the Western Atlantic. This will allow for a return to
lighter SW flow across area waters to end the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

         6/6  6/7
RIC    96/1952  100/2008
ORF    97/2002  101/2008
SBY   102/1925   97/2008
ECG    96/1939   99/2008

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ013>017-030>032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ESS
CLIMATE...RMM