Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

414
FXUS61 KAKQ 041859
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
259 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Shower/thunderstorm chances have trended downward Sunday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High temperatures reach the upper 80s to mid 90s from Friday
through the weekend. The next chance for showers/thunderstorms,
albeit limited is not until later Sunday afternoon and evening,
with dry conditions favored early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...High temperatures reach the upper 80s to mid
90s from Friday through the weekend. The next chance for
showers/thunderstorms, albeit limited is not until later Sunday
afternoon and evening, with dry conditions favored early next
week.

GOES water vapor channels depict a broad high amplitude upper
ridge over the Eastern CONUS this afternoon. At the surface,
high pressure is centered across the southern Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast. Warmer this afternoon with temperatures in the mid
80s inland, and 70s along the coast with light onshore flow.
Still quite dry with dewpoints in the mid 40s inland and lower
50s along the coast. High pressure remains over the area
tonight. Temperatures should cool into the mid 50s to lower 60s
tonight under a clear sky and a calm to light wind. Some
locations could drop into the lower 50s.

The surface high gradually shifts offshore through Saturday
while the upper ridge continues to build eastward. This will
allow for our warming trend (and dry wx) to continue, and it
will become rather hot by Friday and Saturday. Widespread
readings in the lower 90s are likely by Friday and lower-mid 90s
by Saturday, with Saturday currently looking like the hottest
day of the forecast period. Even though temperatures will be
quite hot, dew points will struggle to recover. In fact,
afternoon dewpoints will likely be no higher than the mid-upper
50s through Saturday, keeping heat indices around or even just
below actual air temperatures.

The next chance for rain is not until later Sunday into Sunday
evening as the ridge breaks down somewhat and a shortwave trough
tracks SE from Quebec to New England. This will allow a cold
front to approach and likely cross the area sometime from early
Monday morning-Monday afternoon. A pre-frontal trough Sunday
will likely be the main initiator of any convection, with the
push of cooler and drier air not arriving until Monday with the
actual front. While it appeared as if there was a possibility
for the front to linger nearby for a few days next week, all of
the models and ensembles continue to move it through the area by
Monday, with cooler/drier air (and very little to no precip)
from Monday night-Thursday. While models remain unenthusiastic
on any beneficial rainfall with this system, the atmosphere will
likely be moderately unstable on Sunday with temperatures
reaching the upper 80s-mid 90s w/60s dewpoints. With stronger
flow aloft from the approaching trough, at least a few strong-
severe storms could occur. Will monitor this potential over the
coming days. Regarding the rainfall potential, the multi-model
ensemble (NBM) has continued to trend down, with generally less
than a 20% chc of 0.25". Obviously, locally higher rainfall
amounts would possible in any thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures
are favored Monday and especially Tuesday of next week with the
front south of the area, followed by another potential warmer
spell later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure was centered over the region as of 18z. VFR under
a sunny sky with generally a light N/NE wind. VFR conditions
prevail this aftn through Friday under a clear/sunny sky. The
wind will trend more to the E/SE later this afternoon, then
southerly tonight, and SW 5-10kt Friday as high pressure settles
offshore.

Outlook...High pressure remains into control through at least
midday Sunday with VFR conditions continuing. The next chc of
showers/tstms (20-40% chc) arrives ahead of a cold front Sunday
aftn/evening. High pressure builds across New England in the
wake of the cold front Monday/Tuesday. VFR conditions are
expected with generally an E to NE wind.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail today into the weekend.

- A cold front is forecast to cross the coast Sunday night
  followed by another period of NE flow and potential Small
  Craft Advisory conditions early next week.

Afternoon analysis reflects high pressure centered over the the
southern Appalachia region, with sprawling (weak) low pressure
continuing to spin well offshore of the NC Outer Banks. Locally,
winds are light and generally out of the E or SE. Winds shift
to the S and then SW, with speeds around 10 kt, tonight through
most of Friday. The high pressure system settles offshore Friday
night through Sunday. Nocturnal periods of elevated southerly
flow are expected both Friday night and Saturday night but
should mostly fall shy of SCA criteria. The best shot at
marginal SCA conditions for the weekend period would be Saturday
night where a period of southerly 20-25 kt gusts are possible
on the ocean. However, seas should largely remain below 5 ft,
arguing against the need for a SCA. Weaker flow is expected
Sunday as a cold front drops south into the region, though
isolated storms could impact the waters in the afternoon and
evening. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay should average 1- 2 ft
through Sunday, possibly up to 3 ft at the mouth of the bay
Saturday night.

A period of degraded marine conditions appears increasingly
likely with elevated winds and seas as northeasterly onshore
flow is likely to develop in the post-frontal regime Monday.
This may potentially persist into Tuesday. Winds, and thus seas,
should gradually relax into the middle of next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW