Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

736
FXUS61 KAKQ 081039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
639 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in rainfall continues to increase late Saturday into
early Monday with moderate confidence in timing.

Isaias is now a hurricane.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable to slightly above average temperatures and dry
conditions through Saturday.

2) Moisture and rain chances return Saturday night into early
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable to slightly above average temperatures
and dry conditions through Saturday.

GOES water vapor channels continue to show a split flow pattern
early this morning. A northern stream trough is across the
Great Lakes, and there is an associated cold front pushing
across the Eastern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the southern stream
is evident in the cloud pattern to the N and NE of hurricane
Isaias, with a trough in vicinity of TX. Mostly clear and not as
cool locally ahead of the cold front, with temperatures mainly
in the 50s to lower 60s, although some decoupling has occurred
over interior S-central VA and interior NE NC where temperatures
have dropped in the upper 40s.

The cold front slides across the region this afternoon. Mixing
associated with the front and downslope flow should allow for
high temperatures to rise above average and into the upper 70s
to mid 80s. Mostly clear tonight behind to front with low
temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 40s NW to the upper
50s/lower 60s SE. Temperatures trend down to near seasonal
averages Friday and Saturday. Not necessarily impactful, but
statistical guidance is on the order of 4-8F cooler than NBM
guidance for lows late Friday night/early Saturday morning
(lower 50s to lower 60s NBM vs. mid/upper 40s to upper 50s MOS).
Dry conditions continue through Saturday. However, a gradual
increase in high levels clouds is expected as upper level
moisture spreads over the region well in advance of Isaias.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture and rain chances return Saturday night
into early Monday.

By Sunday and Monday, there is increasing confidence that
moisture gets pulled northward and then pushed eastward across
the region as Isaias makes landfall and merges with an upper
trough in vicinity of the Mid-South. Confidence in timing is
moderate as there is still some temporal differences in the
model guidance. Of the 00z/08 deterministic global models and
ensemble means, the EC AIFS remains to most progressive showing
accumulating rainfall as early as the 18z Sat to 00z Sun time
period. The bulk of the guidance (ECMWF, EPS, EC AIFS ens, CMC,
and GEPS) are generally in the 06z-12z Sun timeframe for the
onset of accumulating rainfall, and the GFS/GEFS are slightly
slower and generally after 12z Sun. Incoming moisture will
initially need to contend with a 1030mb high, which is progged
to still be in vicinity of Cape Cod by 00z Sun, so a somewhat
slower onset is logical. However, once deeper moisture arrives
rain should begin quickly as 00z ensemble guidance continues to
show PW values at or above 200% of normal along with a plume of
instability surging N ahead of the trough. There is still spread
between the 10th and 90th percentile QPF in the 00z/08 ensemble
guidance. In general, the 10th percentile (reasonable low-end)
accumulated precip through 00z Tuesday is 0.25-0.75", while the
90th percentile is on the order of 1.5-3.0". The 50th percentile
(most likely case) shows a generalized 0.75-1.5" of rainfall,
with the highest rainfall totals in the southern half of the
area as there is a hint in the guidance of more enhanced
rainfall along a coastal trough. The presence of a coastal
trough would also suggest that an in situ wedge develops
resulting in cooler temperatures and more stable conditions
Sunday across the Piedmont. Deeper moisture erodes Sunday night
into Monday. However, there are lingering PoPs as the upper
trough swings across the region. Behind this system, drier air
will filter back in later Monday through the middle of the week.
Temperatures should remain near average late this weekend
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevailed as of 12z with high pressure centered
offshore. The wind was light out of the SW under a primarily
clear sky aside from a band of cirrus S of ECG. VFR conditions
are expected to continue today into tonight. The wind is
expected to become WSW 5-10kt later this morning, and then shift
to WNW as a dry cold front slides across the area. VFR tonight
with a calm to very light generally N/NE wind.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue Friday and Saturday with
increasing high clouds. The next chance for sub-VFR conditions
arrives late Saturday into Sunday due to rain associated with
the remnants of TC Isaias. Flight restrictions could linger into
early Monday, followed by gradually improving conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through Saturday.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely late this weekend into
  early next week as the remnant of Hurricane Isaias track
  through the central US, with high pressure well off the east
  coast.

S-SW winds have increased to 10-15 kt early this morning as a
weak disturbance passes N of the area. Occasional gusts to 20 kt
are expected to continue through sunrise, before dropping off
later this morning. Weak sea/bay breezes develop this afternoon;
otherwise, very benign on the waters. A weak cold front moves
through overnight Thursday and northerly winds increase to 10-15
kt by early Friday morning. Lighter winds return Friday
afternoon with high pressure again settling over the area. Seas
are expected to stay in 2-3 ft range through most of Saturday.
Waves in the bay will be 1-2 ft.

Hurricane Isaias has recently developed over the central Gulf
and is forecast to make landfall in the western FL Panhandle
early Saturday morning. While direct impacts are not anticipated
locally, the interaction of the remnants of Isaias with an
upper-level system is likely to lead to increased E-SE flow from
Saturday night through Monday morning, with the peak in winds
(20-25 kt w/ gusts to ~30 kt) occuring Sunday afternoon. Seas
will also substantially increase to 5-8 ft and could be higher
if winds trend up some, with 2-4 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay.
Regardless, Small Craft Advisories are likely during this time.
The wind direction shifts to the W-NW Monday in the later half
of Monday, while also gradually decreasing. A strong cold front
could then pass through the area Tuesday into Wednesday, with
elevated NW winds possible.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW