Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

598
FXUS61 KAKQ 110945
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
545 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory has been expanded northward into the Northern Neck
through 8 PM this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid today-Friday, along with isolated to scattered
mainly late-day showers and storms.

2) A cold front crosses the area early Saturday, bringing drier, and
somewhat cooler temperatures to the region.

3) Hot and humid again Sunday, then trending cooler and somewhat
unsettled next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid today-Friday, along with isolated to
scattered mainly late-day showers and storms.

High pressure remains centered well off the Southeast coast early
this morning. Aloft, ridging will persist across the Gulf Coast
eastward into the SE CONUS. Stronger flow aloft will likely stay
mostly N of the local area today as heights aloft hold steady or
rise slightly. It will be hot over the region today high
temperatures rising well into the mid and upper 90s. Forecast highs
are near record values for the date, see Climate section below for
further details on specific records at the main climate observation
sites. The warmest temperatures are expected away from the immediate
coast/Eastern Shore. Forecast soundings continue to show some drier
air aloft which will likely allow afternoon dew points to mix out by
a few degrees. This is most prevalent over the western half of the
area with dew points mixing into the upper 60s during peak heating.
Farther east, moisture appears to be a bit deeper with less
potential for dews to mix into the 60s during the afternoon.
Accordingly, max heat index values are highest along and just west
of the Ches Bay this afternoon, mainly in the 103-105 degree range.
Have expanded the Heat Advisory northward into the Northern Neck in
coordination with the Sterling, VA WFO. The Heat Advisory remains in
effect from 11 AM through 8 PM this evening. The heat headlines may
need to be extended southward into NE NC as well pending greater
clarity on low level moisture profiles and potential for drier air
mixing to the surface this afternoon. Regardless of the finer
details, it will be quite hot across the area today and people
should take precautions to mitigate heat related impacts this
afternoon.

The other weather concern today is the potential for isolated to
scattered late afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings
continue to show decently steep mid level and very steep low
level lapse rates this afternoon into the evening. MLCAPE progs
are on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg but deep layer wind shear
will be lacking. Most guidance keeps shear in the 15-25 kt range
(highest N). Some robust pulse-type cells with gusty winds are
certainly possible given the thermodynamic environment in place
with DCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. SPC has maintained basically
the same outlines of Slight and Marginal Risk areas with mainly
the NW half of the area in the Slight Risk. With a bit more
shear across the far northern counties, potential exists for
more organized convective structures and associated strong
straight line wind potential. Convection is expected to linger
through the evening but should come to an end by midnight or so.

Hot conditions will continue Friday with widespread high
temperatures again in the mid to upper 90s. Records will again be in
jeopardy with specifics in the Climate section below. Additional
Heat Advisories may be needed for mainly E-SE portions of the area.
At this time, Friday has a slightly better chance for seeing dew pts
mix down into the 60s across inland areas during peak heating hours.
Additional showers and potential for strong storms continues Friday
afternoon and especially Friday evening as upper heights fall ahead
of the next cold front approaching from the N. Shear is again not
looking particularly impressive, but flow aloft strengthens modestly
during the evening, especially across the northern third of the
area, with additional forcing from the front and very hot temps,
this looks like a somewhat higher SVR threat overall. SPC has
maintained the Slight Risk for areas along and north of the VA/NC
border with a Marginal Risk to the south. A 30% wind contour has
been expanded southward and now includes areas north of a line from
Farmville NE into Dorchester County, MD.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the area early Saturday,
bringing drier, and somewhat cooler temperatures to the region.

Latest guidance continues to depict the upper level ridge shifting
offshore Friday night into the weekend as a strong upper trough/low
across northern Ontario very slowly moves to the E-SE. While the
airmass in the wake of the front will remain warm, the wind shift to
N-NE should lead to cooler conditions Saturday, especially at the
coast, along with lower dew pts area-wide. ECMWF ensemble and GEFS
show the PWAT anomalies dropping to below normal values.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot and humid again Sunday, then trending cooler and
somewhat unsettled next week.

Low level southerly flow returns Sunday into early Monday ahead of
the next cold front. At this time, most of the model guidance
depicts the upper level flow remaining W-SW beyond that, which
suggests the front will tend to stall into the middle of next week.
It will trend cooler into next week, with highs falling back into
the 80s along with at least diurnal showers and storms
continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 545 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail early this morning with a SW wind 5-10
kt. VFR continues for most of today, though an additional round
of showers/storms is possible in the late afternoon and evening.
Confidence is low on placement and timing. Included PROB30
groups at all but ECG from very late afternoon into the evening
hours. Winds remain SW 5-10 kt outside of any convective
influences.

Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions Friday into the weekend.
However, a greater chance of afternoon/evening storms is
expected Friday along/ahead of a cold front. A few strong-severe
storms are also possible with strong winds, localized VSBY
reductions, and heavy rain the main threat. Lower rain chances
Saturday with diurnal showers/storms returning Sunday-Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A period of elevated southwesterly flow gradually tapers off
  this morning. Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled.

- Another period of elevated southerly winds is possible late
  Sunday into Sunday night.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure well offshore. Winds
were SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt for most. Winds and seas
have dropped below SCA criteria. As such, have cancelled SCAs across
the coastal waters. Winds and seas continue to diminish today with
generally benign marine conditions (outside of any convection)
likely to continue from this morning into early Sun. Another period
of elevated S winds is possible from late Sun into Sun night. SCAs
are possible with this surge, but confidence is low at this time.
Additionally, there is chance for isolated to scattered storms today
and scattered storms on Fri. Gusty winds are possible with any
convection.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

- Date:  Thu 6/11     Fri 6/12

- ORF:    98 (1911)   99 (1986)
- RIC:    97 (1984)  100 (1914)
- SBY:    96 (1914)   98 (1914)
- ECG:    99 (1947)   97 (1947)

Record High Min Temperatures:

- Date:  Thu 6/11     Fri 6/12

- ORF:    75 (2020)   76 (2016)
- RIC:    75 (1914)   74 (1986)
- SBY:    73 (2013)   75 (1947)
- ECG:    75 (2020)   76 (2016)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ075>078-084>086-089-090-097-098-520-522>525-
     528>531.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...RMM
CLIMATE...LKB