Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

262
FXUS61 KAKQ 221705
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1205 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Storm Watches have been issued for a majority of the
forecast area.

Increasing confidence for a major winter storm this weekend
with very cold temperatures behind it. Early morning model
guidance continues to introduce more mixed precipitation and
freezing rain. Snow accumulations have also started to trend
lower, as ice accumulations continue to trend higher.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chances for a major winter storm impacting the region remain
high, and confidence is beginning to increase regarding
precipitation types. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for
most of the local area. Users should continue to keep a very
close eye on the forecast over the coming days.

2) A prolonged period of very cold temperatures is expected in
the wake of the storm, continuing into at least the middle of
next week. After effects from the winter storm are likely to
linger well into next week due to these very cold temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chances for a major winter storm impacting the
region remain high, and confidence is beginning to increase
regarding precipitation types. A Winter Storm Watch is now in
effect for most of the local area. Users should continue to keep
a very close eye on the forecast over the coming days.

Winter Storm Watches are now in effect for the entire area
outside of far southeastern portions across Northeast North
Carolina due to increasing confidence in widespread snow, sleet,
and freezing rain impacting the area Saturday into Sunday.

Confidence continues to increase in a Miller B low track,
bringing widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the local
area. Very cold air moves into the local area Friday night into
Saturday AM in the wake of a strong Arctic cold front with
temperatures dropping into the teens to lower 20s. On Saturday,
an inverted trough sets up over the southeast US, and a CAD
setup develops over the local area as strong high pressure
(1045+mb)builds over the Midwest and moves east. During the
Saturday night-Sunday morning timeframe, low pressure moves out
of the Gulf, eventually dissipating over the Appalachians.
Meanwhile, low pressure develops off the NC coast and moves to
the north.

A variety of precipitation types are expected in this setup
with big differences as you head NW to SE across the forecast
area. Cold air holds strong at the surface for inland areas as
the wedge reinforces. Warmer air likely intrudes across the far
SE, with temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 40s to
around 50 while areas across the NW stay in the lower 20s. In
addition, all guidance indicates some form of a warm nose
developing around ~850mb, potentially spreading as far inland as
the NW Piedmont. This will result in a messy situation with
snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain possible across the
forecast area. The thickness and strength of the eventual warm
nose is what will ultimately decide our precipitation types.
Precipitation likely starts off as all snow for a majority of
the area Saturday afternoon-evening, spreading north from the
south. A change over then occurs from SE to NW with areas across
the far SE changing to plain rain. Meanwhile, it gets messier
further inland with snow/sleet/freezing rain all being possible
Saturday night into Sunday night. Right now far NW portions of
the area would be favored for the most snowfall, while areas
south of I-64 and along/west of I-95 would be favored for more
icing (see further details about both below). Whatever form of
wintry precipitation that does fall will be significant, hence
the Winter Storm Watches.

Ice: After looking at the 00z guidance, am really starting to
get concerned that a good portion of the area may see
significant to potentially catastrophic ice impacts. The latest
NBM indicates a 30- 50% chance for AT LEAST 0.50" of freezing
rain for much of the area along/south of I-64 from our western
border over to the western Tidewater and up to the Middle
Peninsula. 1.00" probabilities of freezing rain have increased
to near 20% across South Central Virginia which may be too low.
Even more concerning, the EPS Mean accumulation of freezing rain
ranges from 1.00-1.50" across the same locations, with the
deterministic ECWMF showing even higher/more alarming numbers.
It is possible that the EPS/ECMWF, are overdoing the freezing
rain and some of this QPF may be sleet instead (from glancing at
model soundings), but even half of these amounts will result
and a significant ice storm. Ice accumulation of this magnitude
would likely result in major travel impacts as well as
widespread and long-lasting power outages.

Snow: Snow probabilities remain fairly steady, favoring the far
northern half of the area up to DC. The probabilities for
greater than 12" of snow (off of the NBM) range from 40-60% for
much of the northern half of the forecast area, with even higher
probabilities (60-80%+) for at least 6". I am concerned these
values may be overdone, especially the further south you go, due
to substantial mixing of sleet and/or freezing rain. There will
likely be a very sharp cutoff in snow amounts (from north to
south) just over or near the northern half of the forecast area
which we will still need to fine tune with future forecasts.

Everyone should take note and begin to make preparations for a
significant snow/icing event as moderate to major (potentially
extreme) impacts are looking increasingly likely from this
storm. In addition, after effects from the storm will likely
last well into the work week due to very cold temperatures.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A prolonged period of very cold temperatures
is expected in the wake of the storm, continuing into at least
the middle of next week. After effects from the winter storm
are likely to linger well into next week due to these very cold
temperatures.

After a brief warm up Thursday, the Arctic cold front will
usher in a very cold air mass as a strong Canadian high pressure
(~1045 mb) from the Northern Plains into the Midwest Friday
into Saturday. Additionally, behind the weekend system, a large
trough builds into the region through next week. This
combination (along with any snowpack) will allow for very cold
temperatures to continue from Saturday through at least the
middle of next week. Highs may remain below freezing for an
extended period of time from Friday night through Tuesday night
(maybe even longer) with extended model guidance showing highs
in the 30s through late next week. Meanwhile, lows in the low-
mid teens inland (lower 20s along the coast) Friday night, low-
mid teens inland and low-mid 20s along the coast Saturday night,
lower teens W to mid 20s E Sunday night, and low-mid single
digits Monday night are forecast. This doesn`t factor in wind
chill, which could be below zero. This prolonged period of very
cold temperatures behind the winter storm could be quite
dangerous for those without power.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. Some mid
level stratus is starting to push inland across south central VA
and NE NC this afternoon. Cloud cover increases across the
region into this evening with a brief period of clearing or
partial clearing tonight around midnight. However, cloud cover
builds back into the area late tonight into Friday. A few light
showers are possible across SE VA/NE NC late Friday morning into
Friday afternoon, however, confidence is too low at any given
terminal to reflect in the TAFs. W/WSW winds 5-10 kt with gusts
up to 15-20 kt continue this afternoon before becoming light
and variable tonight. Winds remain light through Friday ahead of
a strong cold front.

Outlook: Winter weather is likely this weekend across all
terminals, with a more prolonged period of winter weather
likely at RIC, SBY, and PHF. Initial snow likely mixes with and
changes over to sleet and freezing rain with an eventual
changeover to plain rain possible along the coast as warmer air
gets pushed onshore. However, uncertainty regarding winter
impacts at ORF and ECG is higher. An extended period of degraded
flight conditions is expected to continue through Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Watches have been issued Friday night for the Chesapeake Bay
  and coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light.

- Another period of strong NE winds is likely Sunday as coastal low
  pressure develops along the stalled surface front.

High pressure moved offshore yesterday, allowing SW winds to
develop across the region. However, winds are not quite as
strong as previously modeled so will cancel the ongoing SCA
headlines for the middle bay and northern coastal waters. Waves
are around 2 ft with seas 3-4 ft. A quieter period is in store
for today and Friday despite a frontal passage late tonight. The
initial effects from this front will be a wind shift to NW but
speeds remain 5-10 kt. Strong cold advection moves into the
region Friday night with rapidly strengthening winds after
sunset with sustained NNW winds 25-30 kt and gusts to 35 kt over
the bay and southern coastal waters with SCA conditions
elsewhere. In coordination with neighboring offices, have issued
a Gale Watch for the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters
Friday evening through the overnight hours. Confidence in seeing
sustained Gale conditions is somewhat lower for the northern
coastal waters so will let subsequent shifts assess the
potential for Gale headlines there. Winds decrease below Gale
thresholds on Saturday but will remain solid SCA. Uncertainty
increases thereafter regarding some timing and strength issues
with the development and track of coastal low pressure Sunday
into Monday. Regardless, it appears that at least SCA conditions
will persist into early next week with Gales possible over
portions of the area. Strong cold advection returns on the back
side of the departing low through sunrise Tuesday. Waves and
seas will build along with the stronger winds early Saturday and
likely peak on Sunday in the 3-5 ft and 6-9 ft ranges,
respectively. Freezing spray will be a concern as well,
especially Monday night as cold advection ramps back up.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for MDZ021>025.
NC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for NCZ012>014-030-031.
VA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
     095>100-509>525.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR