Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

626
FXUS61 KAKQ 061059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
659 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area tonight and drifts offshore
on Sunday. A cold front moves through Monday, bringing
noticeably cooler and drier weather for the remainder of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 655 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Areas of dense fog this morning, especially on the MD Eastern
  Shore and in southern VA/NE NC. Dense fog advisory in effect
  through 9 AM.

- Skies become sunny this afternoon while remaining warm.

1020 mb high pressure is centered very near the area this
morning, with light winds and mainly clear skies (outside of
fog). Dense fog has developed and expanded over srn VA, NE NC,
and on the MD Eastern Shore this morning. A dense fog advisory
has been issued through 9 AM for these areas. Temps are in the
mid 50s.

Otherwise, fog clears by 9 AM or so with some scattered lower clouds
lingering through most of the morning. Skies are expected to become
sunny this afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the upper
70s to around 80 F. Afternoon dew points in the 50s will keep the
air feeling comfortable. The flow veers southerly and then
southwesterly tonight ahead of a cold front. Additionally, mid-high
clouds move in and thicken some across the N and NW. Low temps
tonight will be a little milder and in the upper 50s, with mid 50s
possible across NE NC and SE VA where it stays clearer and high
pressure holds on the longest. Little to no fog expected
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- One last mild day Monday before much cooler and drier weather
arrives Tuesday (and most of next week).

The primary driver for next week`s weather continues to be the
potent upper trough (and embedded upper low) that will situate over
Quebec. The leading shortwave will push a cold front through the
area Monday morning and afternoon. Guidance has trended mainly dry
and have removed the slight chc PoPs for Monday. The one exception
may be over the MD Eastern Shore where a few showers could occur
early Monday morning along the front. A low-end PoP remains here.
Highs Monday will range from the low-mid 70s N (given the earlier
FROPA) to upper 70s-lower 80s S. A true Fall airmass arrives Tuesday
and continues through most of next week. Highs temps Tuesday are in
the upper 60s-lower 70s under a sunny sky. It will be quite crisp
with dew points in the 40s and perhaps even upper 30s on the MD
Eastern Shore. Overnight lows in the 40s and 50s expected Monday-
Tuesday nights, with Tuesday night being the coolest of the two.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Pleasant Fall airmass expected most of next week with cooler temps
and low humidity.

- Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Milton pass well south of the area
midweek.

Several shortwaves will pivot around the upper trough/low through
most of the next week, providing additional intrusions of dry/cool
air into the region. The sfc pattern will also remain quite
consistent with high pressure to our NW slowly building and
reinforcing SE by the end of the week. What will likely be Hurricane
Milton is forecasted to move ENE through the Gulf of Mexico and make
landfall on the FL Peninsula early Wednesday. The post-tropical low
will then interact and phase with the upper trough over the
Northeast states as the sfc low emerges into the Atlantic Thursday.
The remnant vorticity then ejects eastward well out into the
Atlantic. While no direct impacts are expected locally, upper-level
cirrus outflow from Milton could bring increased cloud cover
Wednesday and Thursday. The upper flow turns more zonal to end the
week and for next weekend, with a ridge potentially developing over
the eastern CONUS. This will likely lead to a gradual warming trend
by the weekend.

Highs through the week will generally be in the upper 60s or lower
70s (mildest SE). As of now, Thursday looks like the coolest day
with highs in the mid 60s areawide. Overnight lows will generally be
in the 40s inland and 50s at the immediate coast. With the sfc high
becoming centered near or just NW of the area Thursday night, there
could be some upper 30s. The strength of the sfc high doesn`t scream
frost/freeze concerns, but patchy frost can`t completely be ruled
out with NBM 10-25th percentiles showing lows in the mid 30s across
the W/NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Sunday...

Dense fog continues this morning at SBY, with patchy fog at PHF
and ECG. Fog has mainly stayed away from ORF and RIC, though
cannot rule out brief VSBY reductions between 12-13z. Fog
remains the primary concern this morning vs low stratus, but
dense fog will also usually correspond w/ an obscured ceiling,
hence the lower CIGs in the TAFs. Fog clears by 13-14z, with SCT
MVFR CIGs potentially for a few hours later this morning.
Otherwise, it will be a sunny day with VFR. Light E/SE expected
today, except at RIC where the wind direction becomes SSW. Winds
become southerly everywhere tonight.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected Monday and most of
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front crosses the coast Monday bringing an elevated
  north wind Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

- High pressure builds in from the northwest Tuesday into
  Wednesday

- Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to become a hurricane over
  the Gulf of Mexico by Monday and then track northeast into
  Florida by Wednesday and then to move east of the Florida
  Atlantic coast Thursday and Friday.

1024mb high pressure is centered over eastern QB early this
morning and extends well to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region.
The wind is E to NE 5-10kt. Seas are primarily 3-4ft as longer
period swell continues to propagate toward the coast. The wind
will remain light today out of the E to SE at 5-10kt. Seas are
expected to remain 3- 4ft. High pressure slides off the coast
tonight with the wind becoming SW ~15kt N and 5-10kt S. There is
a potential for brief marginal SCA conditions in the Ches. Bay
N of Windmill Point, but confidence in strength and duration is
not high enough to issue an SCA. Seas potentially build to 4-6ft
N (highest out near 20nm) late tonight into Monday. A cold
front crosses the coast Monday followed by a decent CAA surge
late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the wind becomes N
10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt. A period of SCA conditions are
possible, primarily for the Ches. Bay for wind, and the ocean
for seas up to 5ft.

High pressure gradually builds N and NW of the region Wednesday
into Thursday. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to
become a hurricane and eventually move E off the FL Atlantic
coast Thursday into Friday and becoming more subtropical with a
broadening wind field. This could result in an enhanced NNE wind
and elevated seas due to a strong pressure gradient between
~1025mb high pressure to the NW and the subtropical low well to
the S.

A high risk of rip currents is forecast for the Currituck Outer
Banks today as 3-4ft nearshore waves continue with dominant
10-12s periods (14-15s secondary). Elsewhere, a moderate rip
risk is in effect with nearshore waves ~3ft and 10-12s dominant
periods (14-15s secondary). A high risk of rip currents is
forecast Monday as 15-17s swell arrives (likely from distant
Hurricane Kirk) with nearshore waves of 3-4ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 310 AM EDT Sunday...

A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the Nottoway River
at Sebrell where minor flooding is occurring. The River Flood
Warning for the Appomattox River at Mattoax has been cancelled
as river levels have fallen below minor flood stage.

See water.noaa.gov and FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ for additional
information.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Nuisance tidal flooding in possible late tonight into Monday
  along the shores of the middle Chesapeake Bay, the tidal
  Rappahannock, and the southern shore of the tidal Potomac.

Tidal anomalies have dropped to 0.5-1.0ft above astronomical
early this morning across the middle Ches. Bay, tidal
Rappahannock and the southern shore of the tidal Potomac
following a rather strong ebb tide that was only followed by a
weak flood tide. These departures should persist today. Tidal
anomalies for these locations are expected to increase to
1.0-1.5ft above astronomical by late tonight/Monday as a S to SW
wind increases ahead of a cold front. This will bring the
potential for nuisance tidal flooding along the shores of the
middle Chesapeake Bay, the tidal Rappahannock, and the southern
shore of the tidal Potomac.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ065-079-
     087-092-096-097.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...