Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

123
FXUS61 KAKQ 180615
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
215 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
18z aviation discussion.

Visibilities have been lowered in increasing smoke over MD/VA
counties. Air Quality Alerts are in effect for MD/VA/NC.

A Slight Risk for Severe Storms is in effect for most of the
area for Saturday, mainly for potential late day and evening
strong to severe storms. Damaging winds are the primary threat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Smoke from Canadian wildfires continues to result in poor air
quality and reduced visibilities over much of the area.

2) Thunderstorm chances increase this weekend, bringing the
potential for strong winds and locally heavy rain, along with very
warm and humid conditions persisting into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Smoke from Canadian wildfires continues to result in
poor air quality and reduced visibilities over much of the area.

Widespread visibility reductions and very poor air quality are in
place across most of the area this afternoon. Our MD and VA counties
are either in Purple or Red alerts with Orange alert level added to
portions of NE NC earlier this afternoon. Visbilities are generally
1-3 miles across MD and VA. The latest guidance from the HRRR and
RRFS keep the smoke in the region through the evening before
gradually eroding from the south and southeast as winds become SE
overnight. Some smoke and/or haze will likely linger into Saturday
morning, especially for north and northeastern portions of the area.

Smoke has limited surface heating over much of VA and MD with
temperatures mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s. Into NE NC, smoke
has been much thinner, resulting in greater insolation and heat
indices aoa 105. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for our NC
counties until 8 PM this evening. Greater heating has also resulted
in a few widely scattered showers and storms along and south of the
`smoke front` (differential heating boundary between smokey vs not
smokey areas) in NC. A few strong gusts are possible from this
activity but widespread severe wx is not expected.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorm chances increase this weekend, bringing
the potential for strong winds and locally heavy rain, along with
very warm and humid conditions persisting into early next week.

The upper-level ridge continues to gradually break down and shift
off the Southeast US coast over the weekend as upper troughing re-
establishes itself over the northern Mid-Atlantic and northeast
CONUS. At the surface, low pressure tracking from the eastern Great
Lakes into New England will push the stalled boundary back north as
a warm front late tonight into Saturday morning, sending its
attendant cold front south toward the local area through the
weekend. This slow-moving front will likely become hung up and
linger across our area into Monday. An influx of deep Gulf moisture
ahead of the boundary will push PWs AOA 2.00-2.25" by Saturday
afternoon.

Smoke should have significantly less impact tomorrow, though some
haze and lingering air quality issues are possible. This will allow
hot temps to return, with highs well into the 90s (potentially upper
90s in a few spots) alongside surging dewpoints. Heat indices
Saturday are likely to reach 105-108F for much of the area before
any convective cooling arrives. Therefore, a more widespread round
of heat headlines will be needed. In coordination with neighboring
offices, opted to let the current Heat Advisories in NC to expire
before issuing additional headlines for Saturday. At this time, it
appears that areas near and east I-95 have the best chance for a few
hours of 105+F heat indices in late morning and afternoon.

Showers and storms are expected to develop along the lee trough by
mid to late afternoon. The first in a series of shortwaves crossing
the Eastern Lakes/Northeast will provide adequate forcing for ascent
to allow scattered to numerous showers and storms to fire to our
west later Saturday, pushing into our area Saturday evening and late
night. Given the climatologically favored WNW-NW flow aloft and the
highly unstable pre-frontal environment, some organized convective
line segments are possible, mainly after 4-6 PM Saturday. Deep-layer
shear is respectable ahead of the front in the 25-40 kt range
(highest N). Shear is weaker farther S but DCAPE increases
substantially into the 1200-1500 J/kg range. SPC maintained the day
2 Slight Risk Risk with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat.
Greater shear to the north could support more organized convective
structures with some potential for hail or a brief tornado.

Shear weakens a bit on Sunday but sufficient heating and moisture
will support a continued strong storm threat across the southern
half of the area. SPC has a Marginal Risk from Richmond south and a
Slight Risk extending along and south of a line from from South
Hill, VA eastward into Hampton Roads. Strong to severe wind gusts
are the main threat along with locally heavy rainfall. Hampton Roads
has been included again in a Marginal Risk in the latest Day 3 ERO
from WPC. Highs Sunday will be slightly cooler but still muggy in
the lower 90s (Heat indices 100-105 F), with storms likely re-
developing earlier in the day.

High temperatures trend even cooler into Monday with greater amounts
of cloud cover. Additional showers and storms are likely over the
southern half of the area, again with locally heavy rainfall as the
main threat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Saturday...

Smoke continues to linger at most terminals early this morning,
with RIC and PHF staying within IFR VIS restrictions. Other
terminals are generally around 4SM/MVFR. Expecting the smoke to
gradually dissipate and lift out of the area from south to
north after ~12-16Z. SCT-BKN250 skies and light SE winds
overnight will become S/SW after 14Z and increase to 10-14KT
with gusts to 20-24KT through the afternoon. Thunderstorm
chances return this afternoon/evening, though coverage is still
questionable. Confidence in TSRA is slightly higher at SBY after
21Z, so included a PROB30 through 19/00Z. Gusty, erratic winds
and VIS reductions due to +RA will be possible in these TSRA. SW
winds will subside overnight, except for some lingering
gustiness along the coast.

Outlook: Showers/storms are expected to redevelop again Sunday,
with additional flight restrictions possible. Rain chances
continue into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 AM EDT Saturday...

- Benign marine conditions this morning with increasing
  southwest winds later this afternoon and tonight.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected with
  south/southwest winds later this afternoon, overnight and into
  Sunday morning ahead of another front.

- Moderate risk of rip currents across the northern beaches on
  today and possibly Sunday.

Generally light southeast to south winds this morning will
persist until around noon with winds this morning generally 10
to 15 kt or less. SW winds increase later this afternoon and
especially this evening ahead of a cold front. Still expecting
15 to 25 kt winds across the waters ahead of this front late
today and overnight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for
the Bay, coastal waters, lower James River and Currituck Sound
for the gusty southwest winds later this afternoon and evening.
In addition, waves should build to 3 to 5 feet across the waters
by tonight. A band of showers and storms is possible this
evening and into tonight resulting in locally higher winds.

The front will gradually move south of the area during the day on
Sunday allowing winds to turn N then NE-E and weaken. The front
looks to be weak with no strong surge behind the front. Another
period of showers and storms is expected Sunday mainly over the
lower portions of the Bay and Coastal waters from Chincoteague
south into NC. Some of these storms Sunday afternoon could have
strong gusty winds. Otherwise fairly quiet marine conditions
are expected Sunday through Tuesday, before S-SW winds possibly
increase to small craft advisory levels on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front.

Increasing winds and seas will result in a moderate rip risk
for the northern beaches on Saturday. Lingering swells may also
require a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches on Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ630-631-633-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight
     for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...JKP/NB
MARINE...MRD/JAO