Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

464
FXUS61 KAKQ 161743
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1243 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some snowfall remains possible Sunday, though a drier and
quicker- moving system is now favored. Otherwise, no significant
changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold and dry today, followed by milder temperatures
Saturday. There remains a chance for light rain or a rain/snow mix
early Saturday in the Piedmont.

2) Wintry precip remains possible Sunday, though trends
have been favoring a drier system. The best chance for any (light)
snowfall accumulation is away from the coast.

3) Another surge of Arctic air arrives for early next
week, with below normal temperatures to continue through the first
half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 545 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold and dry today, followed by milder temperatures
Saturday. There remains a chance for light rain or a rain/snow mix
early Saturday in the Piedmont.

Cold temperatures are in place across our forecast area this
morning. The cold front that passed through yesterday morning is now
well offshore, with high pressure southwest of the region. A light
breeze is also contributing to wind chills in the teens and these
could bottom out in the 10-15 F range this morning, locally cooler
NW of Richmond.

For the rest of today, the high pressure system to our south will
quickly translate offshore of the Southeast CONUS as low pressure
moves through the Great Lakes region. This will allow the low-level
flow to shift to the S-SW by this afternoon, becoming breezy
with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph. While temps may be a couple
degrees higher than Thursday, it will still be quite chilly with
highs in the lower-mid 40s and potentially only the upper 30s
across the far northern tier of our CWA. Clouds increase
tonight as the first in a series of cold fronts approaches the
area. Low temps look to be quite a bit warmer, only dropping
into the lower 30s.

A large UL trough over the central CONUS pivots/translates toward
the eastern US Saturday. That cold front discussed above will slowly
inch into the area, but generally washes out over the Piedmont. Most
model guidance has some sort of light precip riding along the
frontal boundary earlier Saturday, but the most favorable upper
forcing and moisture will track through the Appalachia region into
the interior Northeast. This light precip could briefly start out as
snow or rain/snow mix for a few hours either side of sunrise,
again mainly for NW portions of our area. Given highly marginal
temps and light rates, do not expect any accumulation or
impacts. Highs Saturday will remain stuck in the 40s across the
NW, with 50s increasingly likely further SE. Lower 60s are even
possible for far SE VA and NE NC.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Wintry precip remains possible Sunday, though trends
have been favoring a drier system. The best chance for any (light)
snowfall accumulation is away from the coast.

A deep trough will dig from the Plains into the Deep South
Saturday night into Sunday. This will trigger some sort of
(weak) cyclogenesis along a remnant frontal boundary near the
Southeast coast. Moisture still looks to be drawn northeastward
toward our area Sunday, but there remains quite a bit of spread
in the model guidance on the degree and placement of precip
coverage. Overall, the trend has been for a flatter and more
progressive upper-level pattern, allowing any weak sfc low to
quickly slide out to sea. Any precip would therefore be quite
brief and generally confined to eastern portions of the area.
The blended guidance continues highlight the highest PoPs for SE
VA and NE NC and this seems appropriate based on all available
data. However, PoPs in the I-95 corridor and points W may end
up being too high with a decent portion of the guidance now
mostly dry out in these areas.

Obviously, the other focus will be any potential wintry precip. The
location of the high (south and west of the region) is not favorable
for a sustained supply of cold air. Furthermore, the more
appreciable colder air looks to usher in after most of the precip
departs. The current forecast has precip starting out as rain or
rain/snow mix for the first part of Sunday, transitioning to
all snow (away from the coast) through the day as the column
cools. Given the aforementioned cold air issues, think there is
a very decent chance that coastal Hampton Roads and NE NC stay
all rain through most of this event, with only low probs for
snow. Regarding snow amounts, the GEFS highlights the highest
probs for >1" from the RIC metro into the Northern Neck and
Eastern Shore, while the EPS favors areas near the coast
(especially Eastern Shore) for this. All of this assumes a 10:1
ratio which may be very generous near the coast if temps are
only 33-35 F. Probs for >3" have decreased and are generally 10%
or less. Furthermore, the hi-res guidance has also been
trending lower with totals. Our storm total snow forecast
generally highlights up to an inch for most of the area with the
best potential for >1" from the Northern Neck to the upper
Eastern Shore. In summary, while some snow is likely Sunday,
trends have been for a drier and quicker-moving system with less
cold air. Certainly could see further adjustments over the next
few forecast cycles but this continues to not look like a major
and/or impactful event.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Another surge of Arctic air arrives for early next
week, with below normal temperatures to continue through the first
half of next week.

Arctic air is likely on the way behind Sunday`s system. Frigid
temperatures are expected for at least the first half of next week.
Overnight lows in the teens are expected Sun night-Tues night. Cold
Weather Advisories are possible Mon night given forecast wind chills
in the single digits across the N and W. While day-time temps will
be rather chilly each day, Tues looks to be the coldest day with
highs struggling to make it above freezing.

Temps may attempt to moderate a bit by the middle and end of the
week as the upper flow turns more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EST Friday...

VFR flying weather is expected to prevail through the 18z TAF
period. Satellite shows few if any clouds near the main
terminals but some mid level stratus is noted over the northern
Piedmont. Winds are gradually swinging around from W to SW this
afternoon, mainly 8-12 kt with gust 15-20 kt. SW winds continue
tonight but decrease to 5-10 kt. A low level jet is still
progged to form over the region tonight into early Saturday with
LLWS indicated at all terminals except ECG. Rain or a rain/snow
mix is also possible early Saturday in the Piedmont, but should
remain NW of all terminals.

Outlook: Marginal MVFR CIGs are possible Saturday afternoon as
a cold front approaches. More widespread flight restrictions
are anticipated by Sunday as rain, and likely some snow as well,
overspread the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect this
  morning as strong NW winds continue.

- Elevated SW winds and likely SCA conditions return tonight
  into Saturday morning.

Early this morning, seeing another surge of drier/colder air over
the waters as high pressure builds south of the local area. Winds
are out of the NW, ranging from 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30
knots (35 knots over the northern coastal waters). Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect until 7 AM EST this morning and a Gale
Warning remains in effect until 7 AM EST for the northern coastal
waters. Winds diminish later this morning through this afternoon as
high pressure builds south of the area. The lull in winds will be
brief however, as high pressure quickly moves offshore and a low
pressure system moves through the Great Lakes. This will allow for
winds to shift to the SW this afternoon, and increase this evening
into tonight. Another round of SCAs will likely be needed for at
least the Chesapeake Bay and the northern half of the coastal
waters. Winds gradually subside below SCA levels by late morning-
early afternoon Saturday. Winds become N to NW Saturday night as
another cold front moves through the area, but winds are expected to
remain sub-SCA at this time. The next potential for SCA conditions
will be Monday into Tuesday as another strong front moves over the
waters. Seas generally range from 3 to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3
feet this afternoon. Seas build again to 3 to 5 feet tonight into
Saturday morning due to the increasing SW winds.

Low water conditions are still possible tonight into Saturday in the
lower Chesapeake Bay, James/York Rivers, and near the coast of the
Atlantic waters. While guidance continues to trend a bit higher with
the water levels, there is still potential for -1 to -1.5 ft MLLW
readings and resultant Low Water Advisories.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/SW
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB