Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

774
FXUS61 KAKQ 310636
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
236 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion.

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into
early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday and Monday as a
shortwave approaches and crosses the area, but no rain is expected.

2) Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average
temperatures expected for the first few days of November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend
continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday and
Monday as a shortwave approaches and crosses the area, but no rain
is expected.

A cold front is well to our south early this morning, with NNE winds
gusting to 20-25 mph near the coast in the wake of the front (and
lighter winds inland). CAA is not particularly strong for the last
day of October, but temps have fallen into the upper 40s-lower 60s
and will fall to the mid 40s-lower 50s by sunrise.  Cooler, dry, and
pleasant today, with highs in the lower to middle 60s. High pressure
builds over the area this evening through Sunday, which will allow
for winds to diminish. Given the cool, dry airmass and diminishing
winds, temps fall off quickly (to the upper 40s-50s) during the
evening. Certainly no weather issues for those trick-or-treating.
Lows Sunday morning drop into the upper 30s-mid 40s. A shortwave
approaches on Sunday and crosses the area on Monday, which will
allow for cloud cover to increase. However, due to the lack of low-
level moisture, rain is not expected. It will turn slightly milder
on Sunday and Monday, with a few 70F readings possible Monday
afternoon across southern VA/NE NC. Cool again Monday morning with
upper 30s-mid 40s in most areas.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances may return by Thursday with above
average temperatures expected for the first few days of November.

The gradual warming trend continues into mid next week, as an upper
ridge builds over the eastern CONUS while surface high pressure
moves well offshore. Widespread lower-mid 70s appear likely on both
Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure system is progged to develop
in the Plains on Tuesday before approaching the Mid-Atlantic by late
next week. Precipitation chances finally return to the forecast by
next Thursday-Thursday night and continue into Friday. However,
there are lots of different solutions with respect to the track,
strength, and timing of the system. So while some of the models do
show widespread rainfall, others do not. Therefore, forecast
confidence in this potential welcome rainfall remains understandably
low. Above average temperatures likely continue through the end of
next week, with no potential freezes in the forecast as the more
substantial cold air remains in the northern half of Canada for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions across area terminals look to persist through
the 06z TAF period. A surge of cooler and drier air has entered
the area, with N-NNE wind speeds of 5-10 kt inland/10-15 kt
with gusts to 20-25 kt near the coast. Gusty winds persist today
near the coast before diminishing tonight as high pressure
settles over the area. SKC today with SCT high clouds moving
over the area by late tonight.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through
Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated NNE winds and seas continue this morning before subsiding
later today. Sub-SCA conditions are expected into the first half of
next week.

Early morning surface analysis shows the cold front now south of our
area settling in across NC and SC. High pressure is building in from
the northwest ushering in a cooler airmass. This has allowed NNE
winds to increase to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25-30kt along most of
the local waters (minus the upper rivers). SCAs remain in effect for
the Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound for these elevated winds
through 10am. Waves in the middle Bay are becoming 2-3ft with the
lower and mouth of the Bay reaching 3-4ft. SCAs are also in effect
for the coastal waters out to 20nm for seas expected to build to 5-
6ft over the next few hours. The SCAs will drop off for the waters
north of Cape Charles early this afternoon as seas diminish a bit
earlier than the southern zones, which drop off at 7pm.

Winds and waves/seas will diminish through the afternoon. High
pressure will persist overhead with winds remaining easterly around
10kt into early next week. Seas are forecast to be 2-4ft with 1-2ft
waves in the Bay. Dry conditions will continue through mid-week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>634-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/RHR
MARINE...JKP