Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

589
FXUS61 KAKQ 280517
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1217 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions persist through Saturday night. Cooler
weather continues through at least mid week. The next chance for
light rain arrives Sunday with better rain chances on Tuesday. Rain
may start as a period of freezing rain across portions of the
Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 620 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Cold tonight with lows in the mid-upper 20s inland and lower
  30s along the coast.

Latest surface analysis depicted an occluding area of low pressure
in Quebec, with the strong trailing cold front well off the
Southeast coast. Clouds move offshore this evening with clear
skies overnight. The high builds toward the area tonight but
remains well to our west as a secondary push of CAA arrives,
dropping 850 mb temperatures to -10C by early Fri AM. While
radiational cooling conditions won`t quite be ideal with a 5-10
mph WNW wind, lows will still fall into the mid-upper 20s inland
and lower 30s along the coast. Will note that a few locations
across the NW Piedmont may drop into the low-mid 20s if winds
become calm briefly before sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cold and breezy on Friday with wind chills only warming into
  the 30s during the afternoon.

- Very cold Friday night with upper teens to lower 20s inland
  and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast.

A strong area of high pressure builds into the area Friday into
Friday night, eventually becoming centered over the local area
Friday night into Saturday morning as the flow aloft flattens out.
Friday will be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and breezy WNW
winds gusting up to 25-35 mph (highest across the Eastern Shore). It
will feel even colder (given the wind) with wind chills never
reaching above the 30s for most (if not all) of the area. In fact,
wind chills Fri morning may be as low as the upper teens in spots.
With the high over the area Friday night, upper teens are likely in
the Piedmont and perhaps rural areas near the I-95 corridor, with
lower 20s elsewhere (inland) as winds become calm and skies remain
clear. Lows will be warmer along the coast with lows around 30F.
With high pressure overhead Sat, winds will remain light through the
day. However, it will still be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s
and lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along
the coast. Will note that there is a nonzero chance of a few light
snow showers or sleet pellets across the Piedmont late Sat night
into Sun morning if enough moisture from an area of low pressure
tracking into the Great Lakes and Midwest can make it over the
mountains in time. Forecast soundings show a dry layer in the lower
levels and saturation in the mid and upper levels. For now, have
kept NBM PoPs which hold off saturation until temps warm above
freezing on Sun and therefore only show rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through mid week inland with occasional days
  of mild weather across SE VA and NE NC.

- Light rain is possible Sunday into Sunday night with a more widespread
  wetting rain likely from late Monday night into Tuesday
  night.

- Rain may start as a period of freezing rain across portions of
  the Piedmont Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Clouds increase Saturday night into Sun as high pressure moves
offshore and an area of low pressure tracks well to our north. Light
rain is possible Sun into Sun night as that system drags a cold
front through the area. However, overall rainfall totals look to be
light (<0.2"). Sun is the "warmest" day of the extended with highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the SE half of the FA and mid-
upper 40s across the NW half.

Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the
area from late Mon night through Tue night (70-80% PoPs). However,
the exact track of the low and amount of cold air remains uncertain.
The general model consensus is for a progressive high pressure
to the north which moves from the Great Lakes into northern New
England or Canada Mon night into Tue. Ensemble guidance is a bit
farther south with the high pressure than deterministic models,
however, even ensemble guidance still shows the high moving
into Maine by Tue morning and continuing to move NE through Tue
afternoon. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance shows clustering of a
surface low very close to (or along) the coast Tue afternoon
into Tue evening. Additionally, there are some signs that this
could be a Miller B type of setup with a weak initial low moving
inland across the Southeast and Southern Appalachian Mountains
before the energy transfers to the dominant low forming along
the Southeast coast. Given the high pressure remaining far north
(with respect to climo for snow for the local area), the Miller
B nature of the low, and the primary low forming very close to
(if not on) the coast, confidence in any snow is dwindling.
Instead, any cold air would likely be shallow, resulting in
predominantly freezing rain (if surface temps are cold enough)
or rain and perhaps a brief period of sleet at the onset if cold
air is a bit deeper. As such, have removed snow from the
forecast and now have a chance for freezing rain across the
Piedmont late Mon night into Tue morning before temps warm above
freezing and everywhere transitions to rain. Will note that the
12z GFS and CMC both showed the potential for >0.5" of freezing
rain across the Piedmont. However, the NBM prob for >0.1" of
freezing rain was <15% with ~25% probs for >0.01". Meanwhile,
the GEFS probs for >0.1" of freezing rain was ~30% with a 20-25%
chance for >0.25". As such, will continue to closely monitor
the setup.

Any precip likely ends before Wed morning. Rainfall totals could be
fairly substantial with a 30-50% chance for >1" of rain on the EPS
and GEFS (best chance across SE VA/NE NC). Otherwise, highs are
expected to range from the mid-upper 40s Mon (around 50F across far
SE VA/NE NC), around 40F NW to around 60F SE Tue, mid-upper 40s Wed
(lower 50s across far S VA/NE NC), and upper 40s N to low-mid 50s S
Thu. Lows range from the upper 20s NW to around 40F SE Sun night
(dropping below freezing after the precip ends) through Tue night.
However, will note that NBM temps may be too cool with the Tue
system and therefore temps may be warmer Mon and Tue nights.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z/28 TAF period with
mainly clear skies (outside of a few mid/high level clouds
mainly at SBY during the day today). WNW-NW Winds have
increased to 7-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt (highest at the coast)
as a secondary push of cold advection has overspread the area.
Deep mixing will allow winds to increase to ~15 kt with gusts to
20-25 kt today, perhaps 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt at SBY.
Winds decrease late this aftn/this evening and eventually become
light or calm tonight (except at the immediate coast) as high
pressure builds overhead.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through at least Saturday
night. High pressure builds over the area Friday night into
Saturday with lighter winds expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect tonight through
  Friday/Friday night as a reinforcing shot of cold dry air
  moves in from the NW.

- Benign conditions Saturday into early Sunday with high
  pressure, then another period with SCAs possible Sunday
  night/Monday with the next cold front.

Winds are currently fairly light over most of the marine area,
but a sfc trough is situated W of the waters, and will push
through this evening, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold/dry
air. W-NW winds tonight are expected to increase to 15-25 kt
with gusts to ~30 kt. While a few gusts to 35 kt will be possible,
mainly Friday morning across the northern coastal waters, probabilities
for frequent Gale-force gusts (>34 kt) remain very low (10% or
less). Gusty westerly winds continue through the daytime hours
Friday, with another slight uptick possible Friday night given
pressure rises of 4-5 mb/6 hr as high pressure begins building
in from the W. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction
through Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft,
highest 10- 20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain
in the 2-3 ft range, with 3-4 ft waves mainly confined to the
bayside of the VA eastern shore.


High pressure moves overhead Saturday, allowing northerly winds
to quickly diminish and becoming E-NE at 5-10 kt or less. Winds
become southerly on Sunday, but wind speeds are expected to
remain in the 10-15 kt range. Another cold front crosses the
waters Sun night, with SCAs possible into early Monday. Uncertainty
then increases by Tuesday of next week as another cold front
(and likely low pressure system) impact the region. A period of
SCAs is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, but the exact evolution
of the wind direction and speed is of low confidence at this
point.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ633-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RHR/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...LKB/SW