Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

257
FXUS61 KAKQ 031924
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
324 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures to start rebounding today with upper 80s to mid 90s
from Friday through the weekend. The next chance for showers/storms
is not until later Sunday afternoon or early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasingly warm to hot temperatures expected
through the upcoming weekend. The next chance for showers/storms is
not until Sunday.

A top tier wx day is ongoing across our area. We can thank high
pressure to our NW and resultant northerly flow keeping any humidity
at bay. Temperatures are around 80 F inland and in the upper 70s
closer to the coast. The high builds over the area Thursday with
lighter winds. Aloft, a ridge axis situates along the Mid-Atlantic
coast with heights building to end the week. High temperatures
increase further Thursday into the mid 80s, with some upper 80s
possible inland and lower 80s at the immediate coast. Widespread
readings in the lower-mid 90s are likely by Friday and Saturday,
with Saturday currently looking like the hottest day of the forecast
period. Even though temperatures will be quite hot, dew pts will
struggle to recover. In fact, afternoon dew pts will likely be no
higher than the mid-upper 50s through Saturday, keeping heat indices
around or even just below actual air temperatures.

The next chance for rain is not until later Sunday or Monday as the
ridge breaks down somewhat allowing a frontal boundary to approach
the area. A pre-frontal trough Sunday will likely be the main
initiator of any convection, with the push of cooler and drier air
not arriving until Monday. Models remain unenthusiastic on any
beneficial rainfall with this system, and most of the guidance
continues to limit any rainfall to just Sunday-Sunday night period
with the front dissipating S of the area early next week. However,
models do insist on a moderately unstable airmass developing in the
afternoon and evening Sunday. With stronger flow aloft from the
approaching trough, at least a few strong-severe storms could occur.
Will monitor this potential over the coming days. Regarding the
rainfall potential, the multi-model ensemble (NBM) continues to
highlight only a 25-40% probability of a quarter of an inch or more
of rainfall. Obviously, locally higher rainfall amounts would
possible in any thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures are favored
Monday and Tuesday of next week with the front south of the area,
followed by another potential warmer spell.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours at all sites.
SCT CU has developed over interior srn VA and NE NC this
afternoon, but is generally S/SW of the local terminals. Regardless,
cloud bases are 5000+ ft AGL. SKC is expected tonight and
Thursday. N/NNE winds this afternoon shift to the E-SE this
evening and become light/variable tonight.

Outlook...High pressure remains into control through Saturday night
leading to VFR conditions. Next chance for any showers/storms is
not until later Sunday or Sunday Night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail tonight into the weekend.

- A cold front is forecast to cross the coast Sunday night
  followed by another period of NE flow and potential Small
  Craft Advisory conditions early next week.

High pressure is centered along the northern Mid-Atlantic coast this
aftn. Meanwhile, weak low pressure lingers well E of the Outer
Banks. The wind is generally N to NE 5-10kt and locally 10-15kt for
the Ches. Bay and lower James. Seas range from ~4ft S to 2-3ft N and
the SCA for the coastal waters off the Currituck Outer Banks has
been cancelled. High pressure remains in vicinity of the coast
tonight and Thursday, and then settles offshore late week into the
weekend. The wind will be light and more variable tonight/Thursday,
with increasing, but generally sub-SCA SSW flow by later Friday into
the weekend. The only period with the potential for marginal SCA
conditions is later Saturday into Saturday night, and this would
mainly be for the Ches. Bay for wind and northern coastal waters for
seas.

A cold front crosses the coast Sunday night with NE flow developing
early next week as high pressure builds in from the N. SCA
conditions are increasingly likely in a NE wind, along with seas
building to 5-8ft.

The rip current risk remains elevated Thursday due to lingering
swell, with at a Moderate Rip Current Risk from VA Beach N, and a
High Rip Current Risk for Outer Banks Currituck. The initial
forecast is for a Moderate Rip Current Risk for the southern
beaches, with a Low Risk for the northern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ