Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

883
FXUS61 KAKQ 151053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
553 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread, beneficial rainfall moves into the area this morning
through early Monday from west to east. Most areas will see 0.75-
1.50" of rain.


2) Above average temperatures, and fairly limited rain chances
prevail from Tuesday-Friday as an upper ridge remains in place
across the southern tier of the CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread, beneficial rainfall moves into the area this morning
through early Monday from west to east. Most areas will see 0.75-
1.50" of rain.


The latest wx analysis shows a deep upper level trough cutting
across ArkLaTex, progged to move eastward across GA/SC and getting
phased with the northern stream. At the surface, a low pressure
system, with associated warm and cold fronts, will move towards the
local area, clipping the southern portions. A situated offshore high
pressure helps push warmer, moist airmass aloft and strong lift, as
a surface warm front moves into central NC. Although, high pressure
centered over the NE will lead to a CAD setup, with highs in the
piedmont cooler than near the NC coast today. To the NW portions of
the area, highs will be in the mid to upper 40s, while the SE will
see highs in the lower to mid 50s.

Rainfall totals continue to show good consensus for 0.75-1.50"
across the area, beginning this morning through early Monday
morning. The lowest amounts (0.50-0.75") will likely be in the
northern 1/3 of the area, with highest amounts in the SE. The EPS
and GEPS ensembles have decreased in probs for 1.00" slightly with a
40-50% chance across the SE and less further to the NW. However, the
CAMs continue to show values of 1.00-1.50" in the SE. Given most of
the CWA is in either D1 or D2 drought status, this rain will be
beneficial and will pose little to no flood threat as it will occur
over a 6-12 hr timeframe. The sfc low moves offshore overnight
Sunday through Monday morning, with rain ending from W to E
(lingering along the coast Monday morning). As the low moves
offshore early Monday, with rain ending W to E, a N to NE wind will
keep clouds lingering throughout most of the day Monday and breezy
winds. Highs Monday will be warmer to the W in the mid 50s to cooler
in the E in the mid 40s, due to lingering cloud cover.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Above average temperatures, and fairly limited rain chances
prevail from Tuesday-Friday as an upper ridge remains in place
across the southern tier of the CONUS.

A fairly flat upper level ridge will become anchored from Mexico to
Florida Tue-Thu, shifting east to Florida and the Bahamas late in
the week. An upper level trough over western Canada and the Pacific
NW will push east across the northern tier of the CONUS through the
week into next weekend. This pattern will allow for above average
temperatures and limit the potential for back door cold fronts.
Temperatures will be the warmest Wed-Fri with highs in the 60s to
lower 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Depending on how far south
troughing to the north can reach, some low-end chances of rain are
possible late week, but at this time, there is a lot of uncertainty.
For next weekend and beyond, the pattern does show signs of breaking
down, leading to temperatures dropping back closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 550 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail early this morning, with increasing mid-
upper level cloud cover expected. A rain shield will take over the
area throughout the day from west to east. RIC will be the first to
see degraded flight conditions around 15z, with a gradual expansion
to the remaining terminals by 18-20z, of MVFR CIGs and VIS. In the
late afternoon/evening, there is potential for IFR CIGs and periods
of IFR VIS for the southern terminals that could see heavier rain.
RIC will likely see LIFR conditions late tonight into early Monday,
with fog lingering after the rain. LIFR CIGs are possible after
00z/16 across most terminals, but have opted to leave TAFs at IFR
due to uncertainty at this time.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely early Monday (much of this
IFR-LIFR) in periods of moderate rain and low CIGs/reduced VIS.
Gradually improving conditions are anticipated Monday, but flight
restrictions may linger through at least midday. Northerly winds
remain elevated closer to the coast. Generally dry/VFR Monday
afternoon through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA conditions persist today. However, increasing winds
  are expected tonight through Monday morning. A Small Craft
  Advisory has been issued for most of the local waters, and a
  Gale Warning has been issued for a period of Gale Force Gusts
  late tonight into Monday morning for the coastal waters south
  of Cape Charles.

1024mb sfc high pressure was sliding farther offshore of the
coastal Carolinas early this morning, as developing low pressure
slides across the Gulf coast. Latest obs reveal SSW winds ~10
kt early this morning. Waves 1ft, Seas 1-2 ft.

Good boating conditions continue through midday today, with
light winds persisting through this morning. Low pressure to the
south will continue to deepen, then lift NE along the southeast
coast this afternoon and tonight. Rain develops over the local
area this afternoon, with winds veering around to the SE, then
east, while increasing to 10-15 kt ahead of this system.

As low pressure lifts across the eastern Carolina coast along
the coastal front, winds gradually ramp up tonight into Monday
morning, with winds reaching SCA thresholds over the Bay and
coastal waters late tonight into Monday morning. Winds peak
across the local waters late tonight, after the low slides
offshore of the NC coast, just south of the local area. Winds
then back around to the NNW, with SCA level winds expected in
the Bay, lower James, Currituck Sound, and most of the Atlantic
coastal waters. Closer to the low, gusts to Gale Force are
forecast over the coastal waters south of Cape Charles. The
extent of these strong winds are dependent upon the magnitude
of the gradient between the low, which will be deepening as it
exits offshore, and the high well offshore. Have blended CAMs
with NBM/NBM90 for this package, as the GFS remains a strong
outlier with the sfc low relative to the remainder of guidance.
This would translate to winds increasing to ~25-30kt over the
southern coastal waters late tonight, 20-25kt over the bay and
Currituck Sound, and 15-20kt over the lower James, peaking
around and just after sunrise Monday morning.

Have issued a Gale Warning for the coastal waters south of Cape
Charles, with a Small Craft ADvy farther north. SCAs have also
been issued for the lower James, Currituck Sound, and the Ches
Bay. Upper rivers are a bit more marginal for now, and will
defer to the day crew to get one last look at the latest
guidance. In terms of our local wind probs, chances for 34kt
gusts remain highest closest to the low over the southern
waters, where Probs are remain 40-70% (very close to EPS probs).
Still appears that there will be a relatively small window to
realize these Gale force gusts on the back side of the departing
low, with winds diminishing to sub-SCA all waters by Monday
evening. Seas increase to 4-5ft Monday morning, with E-SE swell
quickly increasing seas to 6-9ft by the afternoon. Waves
increase to 2-3ft in the bay, up to 4ft in the mouth of the bay.
Waves quickly subside to 2-3 ft, but will likely take well into
Tuesday afternoon/evening for seas to fall below 5 ft.

Return flow sets up behind the system for Monday night through
midweek. Some increased southerly flow then expected for Wed
ahead of the next front. However, given cold local waters and
expected poor mixing of WAA over the waters, have held winds
under SCA thresholds for now.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630-
     631-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 5 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ650-652-654.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...AC/MAM