Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

406
FXUS61 KAKQ 272356
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
756 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation section for 00z/27 TAFs

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A little bit cooler tomorrow inland, but generally remaining
near to above normal through the upcoming weekend. Uncertainty
remains for the potential for some rain this weekend.

2) Remaining dry this week. Uncertainty remains for the
potential for some rain late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A little bit cooler tomorrow inland, but
generally remaining near to above normal through the upcoming
weekend. Uncertainty remains for the potential for some rain
this weekend.

Latest weather analysis reveals persistent upper-level ridging
over the central Gulf coast, extending north into southeast
Canada. Meanwhile, another upper trough continues to dig across
the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. At the surface,
a weak and dry cold front has pushed through the area this
afternoon, with 1034+ mb surface high pressure centered over
Ontario and Quebec. Temperatures are largely in the low to mid
70s inland, while onshore flow brings a slightly cooler but
still seasonable afternoon along the coast with readings well
into the 60s to near 70.

The high behind the front slides offshore of coastal New
England late tonight and will ridge south into the Mid-Atlantic.
Resultant light onshore flow will lead to developing low- and
mid-level clouds late tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing
patchy fog mainly along and west of I-95 within a few hours of
sunrise Wednesday. The low clouds will linger for a good part of
the morning inland; have accordingly knocked temperatures down
a few degrees west of I-95. Meanwhile, along the coast and
across much of the Delmarva, a good amount of sunshine will
bring another pleasant day with highs right around 70 degrees.

The surface ridge eventually anchors off the southern New
England to Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night and Thursday,
while low pressure remains suppressed well south near the
Bahamas. With high pressure sliding offshore, the building SSW
flow allows for a warmer end to the week, with highs potentially
reaching the mid to upper 70s Thursday and Friday before
cooling slightly with increasing clouds on Halloween.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining dry this week. Uncertainty remains
for the potential for some rain late this weekend into early
next week.

Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through Saturday as upper
ridging builds over the region. By Friday and into the weekend,
another northern stream shortwave traversing central Canada will
flatten the upper pattern. Halloween continues to look dry,
pleasant, and mild with increasing clouds ahead of a weak cold front,
allowing for optimal conditions for trick-or-treaters Saturday
night. Models continue to slow the approach of the lead shortwave
pushing into the region late Sunday into early next week, now
looking more likely on Monday. While the pattern may turn
unsettled for next week, latest 12z/27 ensembles continue to
hint at weak systems crossing the area during the first few days
of November. There remains typical spread among the probabilistic
models regarding rain chances, with the EPS and GEPS ensemble a
bit more bullish on QPF than is the GEFS. While welcome rain
appears possible next week, none of the available guidance shows
any promising prospects for drought-busting precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions at all terminals to start off the forecast
period. High pressure will continue to build south from coastal
New England later tonight into Wednesday, allowing for light,
onshore E-NE flow to take hold over the local area. This will
lead to the development of low stratus and/or fog later tonight
through at least mid morning Wednesday. Some MVFR CIGs (~2500
ft) have already developed in the vicinity of ORF and ECG. The
VA Piedmont still looks to have the highest potential for IFR to
LIFR conditions. RIC could see IFR CIGs/VSBY take hold ~09z,
potentially dropping to LIFR just before sunrise Wednesday, with
gradual improvement by mid morning. SBY and PHF could also see
some low-end MVFR CIGs/VSBY late tonight, with some brief MVFR
CIGs also possible at ORF/ECG. MVFR CIGs may try to linger
through much of the remainder of the TAF period as light onshore
flow continues.

Outlook: Other than some potential for patchy AM fog, dry WX
and VFR conditions returns each morning through Sunday.
Remaining dry through most of the weekend, though some light
rain will be possible later Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

-  Onshore flow prevails through the weekend with winds
   generally 10kt or less outside of a brief sub-advisory surge
   this evening.

A weak cold front is pushing south of the local waters this
afternoon. Latest obs show winds have turned to the NE behind the
front. There have been a few gusts >15kt today, but wind speeds are
mostly 5-10kt. A brief increase in winds to 10-15kt is still
expected this evening with highest winds over the coastal waters and
in the mouth of the Ches. bay. A few gusts to 20kt are possible, but
should largely stay sub-SCA. NE winds of 10-12kt continue overnight.
During this time, seas may build to 5ft off the NC coast, but
thinking these higher seas will stay out past 20nm and/or south of
Duck. Otherwise, seas will be 3-4ft. Onshore flow, generally <10kt,
will continue tomorrow and Thurs as high pressure remains anchored
over New England and ridges down the coast. Seas will gradually fall
back to 2-3ft. Another area of high pressure building in from the NW
temporarily turns winds back to the W, then N on Friday. Onshore
flow returns for the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...AC