Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

688
FXUS61 KAKQ 241731
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1231 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances for rain Thursday into Friday continue to slowly
increase.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lows fall into the 20s this morning. Any snow that has
melted will likely refreeze, resulting in areas of black ice. An
SPS has been issued for the Eastern Shore where a deeper
snowpack prevails. A few rain or snow showers are possible
across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore later tonight into
Wednesday morning.

2) A stronger system impacts the area Thursday into Friday,
bringing a more widespread rain.

3) Milder weather is expected this weekend. Potentially
becoming cooler and unsettled again early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Lows fall into the 20s this morning. Any snow
that has melted will likely refreeze, resulting in areas of
black ice. An SPS has been issued for the Eastern Shore where a
deeper snowpack prevails. A few rain or snow showers are
possible across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore later
tonight into Wednesday morning.

Early this morning, the impressive coastal low that brought
heavy snow and high winds to the Eastern Shore last night is now
located well to our northeast off the New England coast. High
pressure (~1030mb) is building into the area from the west.
Still seeing some lingering clouds near the coast, but these are
beginning to rapidly clear out as drier air continues to filter
into the area. Otherwise, as skies continue to clear,
temperatures will be able to fall back into the 20s for most of
the area. Wet surfaces (especially secondary roads, bridges, and
parking lots) will refreeze, causing black ice. An SPS remains
in effect for locations that have a significant snowpack,
including the Eastern Shore. Skies will range from partly to
mostly sunny this afternoon with high temperatures ranging from
the low to mid 40s (30s Eastern Shore). Much less in the way of
wind today compared to yesterday, with wind speeds averaging 10
to 15 mph.

A fast-moving shortwave (clipper system) tracks from the Great
Lakes later tonight to the Northeast US Wednesday morning.
Moisture is forecast to be very limited with this system, but
there is still enough forcing to warrant at least slight chance
to low-end chance PoPs across northeastern portions of the
forecast area (Northern Neck over to the Eastern Shore) later
tonight into early Wednesday. Thermal profiles also indicate at
least the potential for a few snow showers or a rain/snow mix,
at least initially, but accumulation is not expected. Overall
QPF with this system will only be a few hundredths of an inch
(at most) and it is possible that most areas only see
sprinkles/flurries or stay completely dry. Cloud cover
diminishes from NW to SE later Wednesday morning into Wednesday
afternoon with temperatures becoming mild. High temperatures on
Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 50s (upper 40s to low
50s on the Eastern Shore).


KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger system impacts the area Thursday
into Friday, bringing a more widespread rain.

Confidence continues to increase that a stronger system impacts
the region Thursday into Friday. Low pressure tracks from the
WSW later Wednesday night, approaching the area later Thursday
into Thursday night. A nearly stationary warm front will likely
hang up over the forecast area on Thursday, likely near or just
north of the VA/NC border as we typically see this time of year.
The boundary will become the focus for rain as we head through
the day on Thursday before a cold front ultimately crosses the
area Thursday night or Friday morning. While the primary
precipitation chance is forecast to be rain with this system,
cannot completely rule out a few initial snow flakes across far
northern portions of the forecast area. QPF-wise, the latest 00z
EPS averages ~0.50-0.75" areawide with this system while the
00z GEFS is slightly lower, averaging ~0.50". Finally, there may
potentially be decent north-south gradient in temperatures on
Thursday (more so than what is currently in the forecast) based
on the location of the warm front. For now, have highs ranging
from the upper 40s/low 50s north to the low 60s south. The
majority of the rain comes to an end Friday morning, though a
few rain showers may linger across far southeastern portions of
the area through Friday afternoon. High temperatures on Friday
will range from the low to mid 50s inland to the mid to upper
40s closer to the coast.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Milder weather is expected this weekend.
Potentially becoming cooler and unsettled again early next week.

Milder weather returns for Saturday as high pressure builds
over the area and drifts off the coast. Clouds and a low-end
threat for a few rain showers may linger through Saturday across
the far southeast as a coastal trough lingers. Highs on
Saturday will generally be in the lower 60s inland with mid to
upper 50s closer to the coast. The mild weather continues into
Sunday, though there is at least the potential for a backdoor
cold front which may keep northeastern portions of the area
significantly cooler. The pattern looks to become more unsettled
as we head into early next week with additional chances for
either rain or wintry weather possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR at all terminals this afternoon. Cirrus is pushing in from
the W, with a few passing CU near SBY. VFR continues into
tonight, but clouds will thicken and lower as a mainly dry (and
weak) cold front pushes through. While most areas stay dry, the
best chance for a period of rain/sprinkles (and perhaps a wet
snowflake) is at SBY from 09-13z Wed. Mid-level cloud cover then
persists through most of Wed morning and afternoon. In terms of
winds, WNW winds as of 18z today become lighter out of the S/SW
later this afternoon and evening. SW winds ramp up overnight to
10-15 kt as the cold front approaches. LLWS has also been
included in all TAFs (w/ the exception of ECG) from 06z-13z as a
low- level jet moves overhead. Gusty SW winds (to 20-25 kt)
develop after sunrise Wed.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected to persist
through at least Wednesday night. Flight restrictions are likely
in rain and low clouds Thursday and Thursday night as a stronger
system moves through the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure over the Great Lakes will allow a warm front to
  move north of the area tonight/Wed. This will allow SW winds
  to increase to 15 to 25 kt with SCA conditions again possible.

- A cold front passes through the waters on Thursday which will allow
  the winds to turn northerly while briefly increasing to near
  20 kt before diminishing for the weekend.

A strong low pressure system continues to lift northeast and is now
situated just south of Nova Scotia. High pressure is building
across the Gulf and Southeastern U.S., and the gradient between the
two aforementioned features remains tightened across the local
waters this morning. Current marine-based obs are measuring winds of
20 to 25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts this morning in the Bay and
coastal waters, with the Rivers and Sound seeing 15 to 20 kts with
gusts up to 25 kts. Waves in the Bay range between 2-4 ft (5 ft at
the mouth of the Bay), and seas are ranging between 5-8 ft across
the nearshore coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect through this afternoon across all local waters as winds and
seas remain elevated.

A brief lull in winds is forecast this afternoon through late
tonight. A strong clipper system will move across the Great Lakes
region late tonight through Thursday, bringing southwest winds back
to 15-25 kt after midnight tonight. Additional SCAs will likely be
necessary for this round of increasing winds, but will let the
current SCAs expire before issuing the second round of advisories.
The cold front associated with the low pressure system will move
across the area on Thursday, causing winds to briefly turns to the
northeast with possible marginal SCA conditions, mainly in the Bay,
Thursday night. High pressure will build across the area this
weekend, leading to a period of diminishing winds (15 kt or less)
through Sunday night. A possible backdoor cold front may move
through the area on Sunday night and bring another round of SCA
conditions to the local waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...NB