Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

630
FXUS61 KAKQ 190508
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
108 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures have trended a bit colder both Sunday night and
Monday night, but otherwise no major changes to the forecast.

The Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect until 1 AM for
the northern coastal waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front crosses the area Sunday morning bringing light
rain showers and much cooler temperatures. Fire weather concerns
are possible on Monday.

2) Patchy frost and/or a light freeze are looking increasingly
likely for Tuesday morning. A warming trend then begins mid to late
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 820 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front crosses the area Sunday morning
bringing light rain showers and much cooler temperatures. Fire
weather concerns are possible on Monday.

Latest analysis reveals a quasi-stationary front draped just
west of the Chesapeake Bay. Much cooler marine airmass along and
east of the front is allowing for readings in the 50s and 60s on
the eastern shore and the coastal VA peninsulas at sunset, along
with locally dense fog along the Atlantic coast of the Lower
Eastern Shore and offshore. To the west, still rather warm and
dry, with W-SW flow allowing for milder readings still in the
70s to near 80 as of this writing. The trailing cold front will
cross the central Appalachians this evening, and will approach
the local area overnight. It will remaining dry tonight, but
cloud cover will increase as that strong cold front approaches
from the west. Remaining mild inland tonight with temperatures
likely staying in the 60s or 70s through sunrise, with SW flow
increasing a bit more as the front approaches. Cooler readings
in the 50s along the Delmarva coast, with fog this evening,
gradually clearing out as winds increase later on tonight.

The cold front moves through the area from NW to SE during the
morning hours Sunday. In the wake of the front, winds veer
around to the NW winds and increase to 15 to 20 mph, w/ gusts
to 25 to 30 mph (potentially a few gusts of 35+ mph). Temperatures
also rapidly drop 15 to 20 degrees with the frontal passage,
from the 60s to lower 70s back into the 50s. Temperatures will
try to recover across the western half of the area (upper 50s to
lower 60s) in the mid-late afternoon, as we do clear out quickly
post-frontal. As for rain chances tomorrow, still expecting a
decent coverage of light rain showers from mid-late morning
into the mid afternoon. Unfortunately, showers are expected to
remain light with total QPF only averaging ~0.10" to 0.20"
(highest NW, lowest east).

A much cooler and drier airmass will move into place behind the
passing cold front Sunday night into early Monday. Lows inland
Sunday night will drop into the upper 30s to around 40, with perhaps
some mid 30s. A secondary cold front drops through the area Monday
morning into Monday afternoon. Will note that some of the high-res
guidance does show a few showers along this front Monday, but
forecast soundings appear to dry for a majority of this to make it
to the surface. Much drier air filters in behind this front, with RH
values falling to 20-25% with perhaps some RH values in the upper
teens. In addition, breezy conditions are expected and winds could
gust to 20 to 25mph. Monday will be another day we will need to
watch closely for fire weather concerns, especially if we get
less rainfall tomorrow.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Patchy frost and/or a light freeze are looking
increasingly likely for Tuesday morning. A warming trend then begins
mid to late week.

Strong high pressure builds NW of the are Monday, eventually
settling over the area Monday night into Tuesday. A light freeze (30-
32F) is becoming increasingly likely for inland locations,
especially over our NW Piedmont. Latest NBM probs depict ~30 to 50%
chances for temperatures of 32F or less Tuesday morning roughly
inland/NW of US-360 and ~20 to 30% for 30F or less across far
northwestern Louisa County. Freeze Watches may be needed on a future
shift for our NW Piedmont for Tuesday AM. Elsewhere (away from the
immediate coast) temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s
leading to at least the potential for frost formation. A very dry
airmass may help to keep the frost from becoming too widespread.

By Tuesday afternoon, high pressure will eventually move back off
the SE coast and temperatures will begin to increase (though still
remaining below average, especially on the coast and the Eastern
Shore). By the middle and through the end of next week temperatures
will return into the 70s and 80s. However, another front may try to
drop south across the area on Wednesday into Wednesday night
bringing at least the chance for a few showers and potentially
falling temperatures due to onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 107 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR/dry conditions across the region to begin the 06 TAF
period. The low level clouds over SBY have finally cleared and
they have returned back to VFR conditions.

A cold front approaches from the west tonight and crosses the
area later this morning. Clouds increase ahead of the front
tonight and winds become gusty out of the SW. The front crosses
the area between ~11 to 15z, with anafrontal (post-frontal)
light rain showers pushing through the region. CIGs/VSBY may
briefly approach MVFR in heavier showers, but a quick return to
VFR is expected by early-midafternoon. Winds become gusty out of
the N to NW post-frontal with gusts of 20-25+ knots possible
late morning and afternoon.

Outlook: Conditions returning to VFR Sunday night through
Tuesday. Gusty NW winds are anticipated again Monday afternoon.
Another front may drop south across the area Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing at least a low-end chance for rain showers
and increasing cloud cover.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- The Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect now through 1 AM
  for the northern coastal waters.

- Solid SCA conditions expected Sunday ahead of and behind a
  strong cold front with a brief period of gale force gusts
  immediately behind the front.

A weak backdoor cold front remains over the northern coastal waters
as high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and a weak surface low
off the coast remain in influence. Dense marine fog is evident on
satellite imagery and coastal cameras, showing visibilities at 1
nautical mile or less for the northern coastal waters. A Marine
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect, now through 1 AM (05z),
eroding as the front pushes north as a warm front tonight. Winds are
currently E around 10-15 kt, with waves and seas 2-3 ft.

A strong cold front approaches from the NW late tonight and crosses
the coast Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Winds will
shift out of the S and increase to 15-20 kt later tonight ahead of
the front, then becoming NNW behind the front. The latest models
maintain a sharp pressure rise immediately behind the front and
950mb wind speeds of 30-40 kt. Local wind probs continue to show a
40-60% chance of wind gusts to 34 kt, but only for a short duration
<3 hr. Small Craft Advisories continue with no changes this forecast
period for the frontal passage and SMWs will be issued if needed for
any gale forced gusts. The pressure gradient slackens quickly later
Sunday aftn and evening with SCAs ending during this time. Seas
build to 4-5ft in the coastal waters and 5-6ft in the offshore
waters/southern coastal waters, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

The wind becomes W 5-15kt briefly Sunday night, and then NW 10-15kt
Monday. A secondary cold front crosses the coast later Monday aftn,
with a subsequent NNW surge following for Monday night. At this time
the Ches. Bay has the best potential for additional SCA flags by
Monday night. High pressure passes across the region Tuesday and
settles offshore by the middle of next week with sub-SCA conditions
expected. 3-4ft seas early next week should subside to 2-3ft by the
middle of the week, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay subsiding to 1-
2ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
While RIC reached a high of 90F today, no additional records
were recorded today, with the record being 95F. It will be much
cooler closer to the coast, and nowhere near records in the
coming days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/HET
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...AJZ/KMC
CLIMATE...LKB