Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

193
FXUS61 KAKQ 121841
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
241 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence has increased in near record breaking temperatures on
Wednesday. Confidence has also increased in strong SCA or Gale
conditions Friday night into Saturday behind a strong cold
front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions are
expected through Friday. Record breaking highs are possible
Wednesday.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Frost is possible
across portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures with mostly dry
conditions are expected through Friday. Record breaking highs are
possible Wednesday.

The sfc low from the remnants of Isaias continues to slide farther
offshore today. Behind it, low to mid level clouds clear this
evening with some cirrus possible overnight into Tue morning.

The pattern shifts to a warm and dry one for the remainder of the
workweek as a ridge aloft builds in from the central CONUS.
Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface remains centered across the
northern Gulf. Highs warm into the low-mid 80s Tue. Wed will be the
hottest day of the week with record-breaking highs in the upper 80s
to around 90F possible (see climate section for more information). A
cold front pushes into the area on Thu before stalling. This will
allow for some relief from the heat across northern portions of the
area where highs around 70F are possible. However, the front will
likely not make it across the southern half of the area which means
highs in the lower (locally mid) 80s. The greatest uncertainty will
be central portions of the FA where temps could vary considerably
depending on the exact position of the front. By Fri, a surface low
moves into SE Canada which will push the front back north as a warm
front across the local area and allow for temps to return back into
the mid 80s for most (around 80F north). As such, this week has the
potential to be one of the hottest weeks in mid October ever. Mostly
dry conditions are expected to accompany the very warm weather apart
from a low chance for a few isolated showers across northern
portions of the area Wed evening into early Fri with the front.
Shower and storm chances increase Fri afternoon as a strong cold
front approaches with the best chance across the Eastern Shore and
along the coast.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Frost
is possible across portions of the area.

A strong cold front pushes through the area late Fri into Fri night.
Meanwhile, a strong area of high pressure (~1036mb) builds in behind
it, centering across the region on Sun. At the same time, a trough
remains over the East Coast. This will allow for much cooler
temperature to arrive with highs in the upper 50s north to low-mid
60s south Sat and Sun and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland
and mid-upper 40s near the coast Sat and Sun nights (around 50F
along the immediate coastline). While exact details will need to be
ironed out in the upcoming week, the potential exists for the first
frost of the season across interior portions of the FA either nights
with the best chance for frost across the Piedmont. Additionally, it
will be breezy Fri into Sat ahead of and behind the cold front with
gusts up to 30-35 mph possible (strongest winds along the coast).
The wind will make it feel even cooler on Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

Low pressure continues to slide offshore today. As such, cloud
cover will gradually diminish from W to E through the afternoon
with CIGs improving to VFR. However, SCT stratocu will continue
to linger through the daylight hours (3500-4000ft CIGs). Clouds
dissipate this evening outside of FEW-SCT cirrus overnight into
early Tue morning. Patchy fog is possible across the northern
Piedmont as well as across the Eastern Shore late tonight into
early Tue morning, potentially impacting SBY. It is also
possible that low stratus forms instead of fog across the
Eastern Shore (including SBY) with IFR CIGs possible. As such,
added a TEMPO to account for the potential of either of these
scenarios at SBY.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front pushes farther offshore through this evening, as
  high pressure builds south of the local waters. Small Craft
  Advisories remain in effect for most of the waters through
  this afternoon, with more benign boating conditions returning
  tonight through late week.

- A strong cold front crosses the waters late Friday into this weekend.
  Strong SCA to Gale conditions are likely Friday night through
  early Sunday.

NW winds of 15-25 kt persist early this afternoon in the wake of a
secondary surface trough. Gusts to ~30 kt in the lower Bay and
southern coastal waters will gradually diminish, with SCAs across
the coastal waters, Sound, and Chesapeake Bay dropping off late this
afternoon through early this evening. Surface high pressure (1022+
mb) will build over the Southeast coast tonight and Tuesday, with
local winds backing to the W-SW while diminishing tonight, remaining
~10 kt tomorrow and tomorrow night. Waves 2-3 ft subside to 1 ft or
less tonight, while 3-5 ft Seas fall below 5 ft tonight, remaining 2-
3 ft Tuesday through midweek as winds turn offshore.

SW winds slowly increase to ~10-15 kt early Wednesday morning as
high pressure builds across the Southeast coast as a weak low passes
by well to our north. High pressure building across the Great Lakes
will push a weak (dry) backdoor front south across the waters late
Wednesday into Thursday morning, bringing a quick wind shift to the
NNE Thursday morning. At this time, winds look to remain below SCA
thresholds with this first front. However, models continue to depict
a quickly deepening surface low over the eastern Great Lakes Friday
and Friday night, sending a second, much stronger cold front toward
the local waters late Friday into the weekend. Strong SCA or Gale
conditions are looking increasingly likely behind that front Friday
night into the weekend as deep boundary layer mixing accompanies the
significant cold advection.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

        10/13  10/14
RIC    90/1954   87/1975
ORF    89/1954   86/1975
SBY    86/1954   86/1975
ECG    87/1990   86/1975

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...RMM