Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

449
FXUS61 KAKQ 131048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
648 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for widespread
nuisance to minor coastal flooding across the Chesapeake Bay
and local tidal rivers for tonight`s high tide.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drier conditions return, with cooler than
average temperatures persisting through midweek.

2) Hot conditions return for the second half of the week.
Remaining dry through Thursday, followed by increasing
thunderstorm chances Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier conditions return, with cooler than
average temperatures persisting through midweek.

Latest analysis reveals 1024+mb sfc high pressure centered to
our north from the eastern Great Lakes into New England and the
northern mid- Atlantic. The wavy surface cold front is now well
south of the local area, extending from the GA/SC coast back
into the mid- south and the central and southern plains. As the
front slowly slides farther south, the heavy rain threat will
effectively end over our area and the Flood Watch previously in
effect over NE NC has been cancelled. However, a low-end 20-30%
rain chance for isolated to widely scattered showers will
persist over far southern portions of the area into this
afternoon, primarily across the northern OBX and communities
along the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound and over south
central VA mainly south of US-58/west of I-95.

Onshore flow and considerable cloud cover will combine to
produce a cool day today, with highs generally in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. A few more breaks in the overcast will be
possible north of I-64, allowing highs to reach the lower to
middle 80s across our far northern tier. Clouds decrease
tonight, with early morning lows falling into the low to mid 60s
inland away from the coast, mid to upper 60s east of I-95, and
the lower 70s along the immediate coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions return for the second half of
the week. Remaining dry through Thursday, followed by increasing
thunderstorm chances Friday into the weekend.

Upper level ridging builds over the region Tuesday through
Thursday, bringing moderating temperatures back to around 90 on
Tuesday, with temperatures warming back above normal for the
latter half of the week. Highs warm into the low to mid 90s
Wednesday, and mid to upper 90s on Thursday. Heat indices look
to be in the low 100s during this period, though we will likely
approach Heat Advisory criteria on Thursday.

Regarding thunderstorm chances for late week, global ensembles
continue to trend slower with the next frontal passage. For that
reason, the convective potential that prompted previous SPC
Outlooks has been removed. That said, the synoptic setup is
at least favorable for strong to severe storms, as the H5 ridge
breaks down, with a low amplitude trough and NW flow aloft
developing. At this time, Saturday appears the best chance, but
obviously, that could change. Considerable uncertainty with
regard to timing and coverage of showers and storms will be
monitored and refined in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions across the area, with the exception of some
spotty MVFR across the southern third of the area. Still
considerable mid-level moisture persists, and thus expect BKN-
OVC conditions AOA 14-17kft AGL this morning at all TAF sites
except KSBY. Have maintained showers and VCSH wording at KECG
through the mid-morning hours, but otherwise expect drying
conditions to prevail. Easterly flow continues through the
period, mainly 5-10 kt early this morning, increasing to 10-15
kt with gusts around 20 kt later this morning and this
afternoon. A few additional showers are possible at ECG Monday
late this morning through early afternoon and have continued
VCSH wording. Probs for MVFR have dropped at KECG, so will hold
out MVFR mention once again.

Outlook: Drier conditions prevail into the middle of next week
with improving conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for most local waters through
  this evening, as elevated winds and seas decrease throughout
  the day. Benign marine conditions are expected Tuesday into
  late week.

- There is a High Risk of Rip Currents across southern beaches and a
  Moderate Risk across northern beaches today.

A nearly stationary cold front slowly continues to push south over
the Carolinas early this morning, forming a weak low pressure along
the boundary to the south of the area. Overhead, high pressure
filters down from the New England coastal region. ENE winds remain
elevated early this morning with winds around 15-20 kt. Winds will
remain elevated throughout this afternoon/evening, decreasing from
the north to the south to ~10 kt tonight, remaining out of the ENE as
high pressure centers over the area. Along with winds, waves and
seas are currently elevated to 2-4 ft and 4-5 ft, respectively,
slowly receding today. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
through this afternoon, with the middle Ches. Bay and upper tidal
rivers expiring early this morning. Then the lower Ches. Bay, lower
James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters between Chincoteague
and Cape Charles Light will end this afternoon/evening. SCA for the
coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light will remain in effect
through early Tuesday morning for lingering 5 ft seas. Generally
benign marine conditions return for Tuesday and look to prevail
through late week.

A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for southern beaches with a
Moderate Risk for northern beaches today due to elevated onshore
flow and seas. Despite winds and seas start to relax on Tuesday,
have decided to keep high rip risks in place for the southern
beaches due to the continued longer-period swell of ~3-4 ft and
shore normal flow. By Wednesday, seas will have subsided enough and
winds will becoming offshore before becoming parallel to the shore,
so the rip risk will likely start to come down.

.Coastal Flooding...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Tidal anomalies will continue to increase tonight, as we
head into a period of King Tides. This will allow for the higher of
the daily high tide (the evening high tide) to rise into action or
minor flood stage. For this evening`s high tide cycle, elevated ENE
winds combined with the higher tidal anomalies should allow for
widespread nuisance to low-end minor coastal flooding across the
Chesapeake Bay and local tidal rivers. Coastal Flood Statements have
been issued for these areas including along the upper James, York,
Rappahannock, and Potomac Rivers and the Ches. Bay side of the
middle Ches. Bay for this evening into late tonight. If any of the
tides start to overperform, a Coastal Flood Advisory may be required
for some areas for tonight`s high tide.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ632>634-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...KMC/NB