Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

924
FXUS61 KAKQ 200021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
821 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has ended.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe threat has diminished, but showers/storms linger this
evening with locally heavy rainfall through midnight.

2) Active weather pattern continues Monday through Thursday of
this week with below seasonable temperatures by the end of this
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe threat has diminished, but showers/storms linger
this evening with locally heavy rainfall through midnight.

The severe threat has diminished with the region quite worked
over from numerous showers/storms and loss of the daytime
heating, though a few storms linger this evening, with locally
heavy rainfall possible. With the area remaining in a drought
and the threat being localized no Flood Watch has been issued.
Otherwise, temperatures overnight are expected to cool down
especially in the rain cooled areas with upper 60s to low 70s
forecasted. Will note, models have hinted on residual moisture
lagging behind the front and in areas that receive rain there is
the potential for patchy fog development late tonight into
early Monday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Active weather pattern continues Monday through
Thursday of this week with below seasonable temperatures by the end
of this week.

The aforementioned cold front will liner across the area Monday
bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. These
thunderstorms could potentially pose the risk of a strong to
damaging wind gust and localized Flash Flooding cannot be ruled out
especially if storms move over areas that have been saturated from
the previous days. Will note, there is some discrepancy within the
models and POPS continue to remain in question. This is due to the
placement of the cold front. Temperatures Tuesday are expected to be
around seasonable with highs in the middle to upper 80s. For Tuesday
and Wednesday, the severe threat looks to be increasing as a much
stronger trough will start to move out of the Midwest and into the
Mid-Atlantic. Tuesday looks to be the strongest day as shear looks
to be the strongest and as multiple shortwaves will move through and
could initiate storms along the Lee Trough. Some of the wind
profiles based of model soundings show the potential for discrete
storms ahead of a possible line of storms coming out of the NW. At
the surface, a strong cold front will move into place Wednesday
helping to initiate thunderstorms potentially producing another
round of severe weather. There remains slight uncertainty but models
have hinted on the potential for a recovering atmosphere ahead of
the front that is favorable for severe weather. The primary hazard
at this time looks to be strong to severe wind gusts but other
hazards could potentially evolve. Once this front moves through,
slightly cooler temperatures are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

Local MVFR-IFR conditions this evening in SHRA/TSRA, but most
places are VFR this evening. Winds are generally light and
variable and this will continue overnight outside of locally
increased winds in TSRA (note that the threat for strong to
severe winds has decreased). Model guidance continues to hint at patchy
fog developing in areas that received rainfall, as well as a
somewhat more widespread period with MVFR CIGs after ~06Z (this
has been maintained at all terminals except SBY). Expect MVFR
CIGs to linger through much of Monday morning, especially in
the SE. Mainly VFR Mon aftn, with scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly
confined to southern VA and NE NC. ECG has the best chance at
seeing any aftn flight restrictions. Winds on Monday will be
E-NE, becoming , mainly at 5-10 kt.



Outlook: Rain chances continue through much of the week, with
with intermittent flight restrictions possible during the late
aftn/evening in additional SHRA/TSRA. In addition, some low
stratus and patchy fog will be possible early Tue AM.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Sunday...

- A weak front pushes south across the area today.

- Small Craft conditions are likely across the waters late Tuesday
  into Wednesday.

- Strong storms are possible each afternoon and evening from today
  through mid week.

Afternoon analysis shows a weak frontal boundary making slow
southward progress across the waters. Winds are generally N or NNE 5-
10 kt behind the front. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas around 2 ft near
shore and 3-4 ft well offshore. Generally benign marine conditions
are expected today through Monday, outside of local influences from
strong convection each afternoon and evening. Winds become easterly
Monday then south on Tuesday as the front lifts north and washes
out. Southerly winds increase Tuesday into Wednesday with Small
Craft Advisory conditions likely Tuesday afternoon and into
Wednesday. Another cold front likely pushes into the area late
Wednesday.

Rip current risk is low at all beaches on Monday. Tuesday and
Wednesday will likely see moderate rip risk for the northern beaches
and low/moderate risk for the southern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET
AVIATION...HET/LKB
MARINE...RHR