Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

840
FXUS61 KAKQ 142339
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
739 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered temperatures a bit for tonight and ended Small Craft
Advisories across the tidal rivers (excluding the Lower James
River).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly
lower humidity through Wednesday. Temperatures warm back above
normal late in the week as an upper ridge builds back into the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 740 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and
significantly lower humidity through Wednesday. Temperatures
warm back above normal late in the week as an upper ridge
builds back into the region.

The latest surface analysis depicted a large (~1025mb) area of
high pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes this
evening. The high will gradually spread eastward overnight. Temperatures
as of 730 PM ranged from the lower 70s N to the upper 70s S
with dew points in the 50s across the northern two thirds of the
FA and 60s across far S VA/NE NC. As the high continues to build
in overnight, winds will start to diminish on land and skies
will remain mostly clear. With light winds and mostly clear
skies, this will be a favorable environment for radiational
cooling. Dew points will drop into the 50s for most of the
forecast area, so lows will likely be able to drop in the mid to
upper 50s for most locations. Northern portions of the FA could
even see lower 50s with localized upper 40s not out of the
question in Louisa County. Near the coast, temperatures will
likely remain in the mid 60s.

Dew points are forecast to remain very comfortable through at
least Thursday as strong sfc high pressure (~1030 mb), sets up
from off the New England coast SW into the Carolina coastal
plain through midweek. Highs will stay mostly in the low-mid 80s
through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer
at the immediate coast). The upper level ridge is forecast to
expand E-NE to the TN Valley and central Appalachians Thu-Fri.
This will allow temperatures to climb back to above normal for
mid- September, with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s. Dry
weather likely persists through Saturday. However, cannot rule
out a few isolated showers or storms across the northern
portions of the FA on Friday with a cold front (15-20% PoPs).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions continue through the 00z taf period. Mostly clear
skies continue through Tue apart from occasional thin cirrus.
N-NE winds of 5-10 kt this evening become light and variable
inland tonight. Winds remain NE and elevated along the coast
through tonight. A few gusts up to around 20 kt are possible at
ORF through ~7z Tue. Otherwise, NE winds increase to 5-10 kt Tue
with ~10 kt along the coast.

Outlook: Dry weather continues through Sat with generally VFR
conditions given high pressure over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 725 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- CAA continues tonight with enhanced N-NE winds and Small
  Craft Advisories in effect for all but the northern coastal
  waters and tidal rivers.

- Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week
  and into the weekend.

A large (~1025mb) area of high pressure was centered over the
Eastern Great Lakes this evening. Winds were generally N/NE
15-20 kt with gusts up to around 25 kt. Waves in the Ches Bay
were 2-4 ft with seas 3-5 ft. Winds have diminished below 15-20
kt across the upper rivers. As such, have canceled SCAs there.
Elsewhere, winds are expected to gradually become NE overnight
as much drier air overspreads the the waters. A gradual
decrease in speed expected late tonight, especially toward
sunrise, with the latest guidance showing winds falling below
SCA thresholds in the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck
Sound around sunrise. However, will let the overnight shift
make the call on ending these headlines early. Seas will be
slower to fall off than the winds overnight with 3-6 ft seas
nearshore (highest across the southern coastal waters) and 4-7
ft in the 20-60nm zones likely. Elevated seas linger into the
daylight hours of Tuesday across the southern coastal waters S
of Cape Charles Light. High pressure then builds north of the
area by Tuesday afternoon and evening with improving marine
conditions expected for the remainder of the week and likely
into the weekend as well.

Given the elevated onshore flow and nearshore waves, there is a
moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches and a high
risk rip current risk for the southern beaches on Tuesday. All
beaches have a Moderate Risk on Wednesday as swell energy
persists.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/RMM/NB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR/RMM