Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

439
FXUS61 KAKQ 311921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
321 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot conditions prevail during the early to
middle portion of the week. Isolated storms possible, but mostly
dry.

2) Shower/storm chances increase late week as a
cold front approaches. Cooler, but seasonable, temps forecast behind
the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle
portion of the week. Isolated storms possible, but mostly dry.

Sfc high pressure remains near the area this afternoon with temps in
the upper 80s to around 90. Observational data shows a corridor of
locally higher temperatures across interior srn VA up into the
Northern Neck, which is also in the vicinity of a weak wind shift.
Already am seeing a few showers popping up in this area and could
see some additional isolated activity through the early evening
hours. This is in agreement with some of the latest CAMs. Another
area of showers (and perhaps a rumble of thunder) is developing
on the lower MD Eastern Shore.

Otherwise, a late-summer heat wave is imminent as a strong upper
level ridge building over the Mississippi River valley translates
toward the east coast by the mid-late week period. Temperatures rise
through the week and peak near 100 on Wednesday and Thursday. If
realized, these temps would likely break a few max temp records for
early September. Unfortunately, it will also feel humid and stagnant
on top of the already hot conditions with little to no wind and dew
points in the upper 60s and low 70s. Heat indices in the upper 90s
and low 100s are expected today and Tues, then 102-107 on Wed/Thurs.
Heat Advisories are likely for at least part of the area these days;
highest confidence in this is E of I-95. Overnight lows will not
provide much relief, especially Wed night when lows will be in the
upper 70s.

Dry conditions are generally expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
However, given the NW flow aloft and no short supply of instability,
stronger storms are possible, but confidence is pretty low at the
moment. Any convective activity would likely be in the form of
leftover MCS activity from our N, the evolution of which are
relatively difficult to predict with much lead time. CAMs depict
various solutions, ranging from dry to large thunderstorm
complexes. SPC has N/NE portions of the area in a Marginal Risk
for Tuesday and a sliver of Marginal/Slight Risks for the lower
MD Eastern Shore Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower/storm chances increase late week as a cold
front approaches. Cooler, but seasonable, temps forecast behind the
front by the weekend.

The strong ridge aloft starts to break down/flatten late in the
week. Meanwhile, a sfc cold front approaches from the north, most
likely passing through the area sometime Friday. Afternoon and
evening storms appear quite probable Friday with the front around,
but will also be possible Thursday, similar to the setups of Tuesday
and Wednesday. NW flow will remain place aloft and this flow
will progressively strengthen as the associated trough drops
southward along the NE/Mid-Atlantic coast. All in all, the
combination of instability and this increasing flow (and shear)
suggests any storms could be strong-severe. SPC has outlooked
areas N of the NC/VA border in a severe risk for Thursday and
Friday.

We should see a little bit of relief from the heat over the weekend,
but still seasonably warm with highs in the low 80s. The chance of
showers/storms will also be lower, but not zero.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions likely prevail through the bulk of the 31/18z
TAF period. SCT CU has begun to develop this afternoon and
should remain around for the next several hours. There remains a
chc for a shower or two through the early evening, especially
near SBY. Will have a PROB30 group at SBY to account for this
potential. Otherwise, mostly clear/partly cloudy tonight with
light winds.

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions through Wednesday.
Shower and storm chances begin to increase Thursday
afternoon/evening (and especially Friday) at all terminals ahead
of the next cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- High pressure remains centered offshore through much of the
  week leading to sub-Small Craft Advisory southerly flow. A
  cold front approaches the waters late in the week and may
  bring elevated winds.

High pressure is centered offshore with weaker high over the local
area causing variable wind directions, but mostly out of the S-SE.
In general, wind speeds are 5-10 kt with gusts to 15 kt this
afternoon. Seas are currently ~2 ft with ~1 ft waves. Nocturnal
southerly wind surges are expected tonight and Tuesday night, but
winds should remain below the SCA thresholds. Tonight, winds will
remain around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Tuesday night southerly
winds will increase slightly higher with 10-15 kt winds and gusts to
20 kt in the coastal waters. During the day Tuesday and Wednesday,
mostly S winds will be 5-10 kt. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet and
waves 1 to 2 feet through the period.

A cold front will approach the region Thursday into Friday with
strengthening flow ahead of and (especially) behind the boundary
this weekend. This could bring elevated winds and SCA conditions.
Shower and storm chances will ramp up during the late week period
ahead of the front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB/KMC