Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

582
FXUS61 KAKQ 220740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
240 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front north of the area crosses the local area as cold
front this afternoon. Intermittent chances for rainfall are
possible through this afternoon. High pressure builds back into
the area Sunday into early next week, leading to dry
conditions. Another system impacts the area Tuesday into the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Areas of fog possible this morning, mainly outside of shower
  activity.

- Another round of showers are possible this afternoon along a
  southward-moving cold front, with isolated thunderstorms also
  possible in far southern VA and northeast NC.

A warm front lifted through most of the area last night and is
draped across the northern portion of VA. Our local area is sitting
in the warm sector, with temperatures well above normal for this
time of year and dew points in the 50s. Regional soundings sampled a
moist atmospheric column last night with decent low-level/surface
moisture. This saturated environment has led to thick low-level
cloud cover and areas of fog. KAKQ is detecting a broad swath of
showers moving across VA portion of our forecast area, with the
heaviest rainfall being observed across northern VA closer to the
warm front. So far, measurable rainfall has been limited to less
than a tenth of an inch due to the lighter nature of these showers.

The main batch of rainfall should be E of NE of the local area by
the mid-morning hours of Saturday. The remnant warm front will then
surge southward as a cold front in the late morning-afternoon hours
of Saturday as a quick-moving shortwave aloft slides through. This
will bring an additional chance for showers, especially in southern
VA and NE NC. Latest model guidance continues to highlight some
MUCAPE this afternoon south of the front, so have maintained mention
of thunder in the forecast from midday through around 6 pm. There
will be a sharp temperature gradient across the forecast area with
the southward-advancing cold front keeping areas across the north in
the upper 50s-lower 60s, while southern VA and northern NC warm into
the 70s. A cooler airmass will start to filter across the area
tonight behind the front. Chilly overnight temperatures are forecast
for tonight, with lows in the 40s (mid to upper 30s for the MD
Eastern Shore counties).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Dry, seasonable conditions Sunday, with cooler temperatures
  Monday.

High pressure will build across the region on Sunday, with seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions returning. A clipper system moving
through southern Canada will drag a reinforcing, dry cold front
across our area on Sunday, with an even drier, cooler air mass
pushing into the area into its wake. With high pressure overhead
this cooler air mass Sunday night, the resulting mostly clear skies
and light winds will produce a good environment for radiational
cooling. A chilly night is forecast for Sunday, with lows dropping
into the 30s (lower 40s along the coast). Ridging aloft centered off
the SE coast will build across the region on Monday and the surface
high will settle across the Mid-Atlantic, leading to mostly sunny
skies through the first part of the afternoon. Temperatures will
struggle to breach 60F during the day on Monday despite the abundant
sunshine forecast. Cloud cover will start to move into the area from
NW to SE as another systems approaches the area from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Another storm system approaches Tuesday into the middle of
  next week.

- Drier and cooler weather returns late in the week.

Though there continues to be some inconsistencies between global
models in regards to the next system that is forecast to impact the
area by mid-week, guidance is starting to become slightly more
aligned with the latest 00z run. There continues to be good
agreement that a frontal system will move through the OH/TN Valley
Tuesday as sfc low pressure occludes over the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. Measurable precip should overspread the area later
Tuesday into Tuesday night as a warm front pushes north. While there
has been divergence in solutions come Wednesday, guidance is
trending towards the cold front pushing through on Wednesday and
WEdnesday night which would lead to a cooler, drier Thanksgiving.
Have still maintained slight rain chances across the forecast area
for Thursday morning, but have dried it out by the afternoon.
Regardless of the exact details, there is a good signal that warmer
temperatures will continue through Wednesday, followed by much
cooler temperatures returning by late week as an expansive upper
trough digs down across the Eastern United States. By Friday,
temperatures could struggle to reach 50F.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1225 AM EST Saturday...

IFR to LIFR conditions prevail at all terminals tonight due to a
combination of low ceilings and fog/mist. PHF and ECG are
experiencing FG/BR, with visibilities ranging from 1-2 SM.
While reduction is VIS is likely at the other terminals tonight,
this will likely be due to rain that is currently approaching
the area from the west. This rain will linger through around
midday tomorrow as a cold front makes it final push through the
area. LIFR/IFR CIGs will remain in place at all terminals
overnight and a portion of the morning. Surface winds will
remain light out of the SSW closer to the warm front and SW
5-10kt south of the boundary. CIGs are expected to be generally
MVFR Saturday aftn, with brief IFR possible immediately behind
the front. As the cold front pushes N-S across the area Saturday
afternoon, winds will shift to the north to northeast and
increase to 8-12 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt possible near the
coast. There is some concern that as winds shift to the N/NE
that the onshore flow combined with weak CAA will keep the
cloud deck in place a little longer than expected, so cloud
cover may struggle to scatter out any earlier than tomorrow
evening/early tomorrow night.

Dry and VFR conditions eventually return later Saturday night
into Sunday and will continue into early next week. Another
chance for rain and some flight restrictions returns Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dense fog is possible over the waters through mid morning.

- A cold front crosses the local waters today, bringing a slight increase
  in N to NW winds this afternoon into tonight. SCAs are in
  effect for the bay from this afternoon through late this
  evening.

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected on Sunday, with a decent chance
  of low-end SCAs from Sunday night-Monday morning behind
  another cold front.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered offshore with weak low
pressure in the central Appalachians. A frontal boundary is draped
just to the north of the waters with S winds of 5-10 kt as per
current observations. In addition, Dense Fog Advisories are in
effect for the NC waters until 7 AM, and may need to be expanded
northward during the next few hours. Wind speeds through 7 AM will
remain no higher than 10 to 15 knots out of the south. The low then
moves offshore, dragging a cold front through the waters from the
late morning-late afternoon. Winds turn to the north following the
FROPA and briefly (for ~3 hours) increase to 15-20 kt on the
bay/ocean before becoming NNE-NE and diminishing to 10-15 kt
tonight. The highest confidence in low-end SCA conditions is over
the lower Chesapeake Bay, and have issued SCAs here from 1-10 PM
(with the most likely window for frequent 20-25 kt gusts being from
2-6 PM). Even though it is more marginal in the upper bay, have
issued SCAs here as well after collaboration with neighboring
offices. High pressure builds back over the waters Sunday, leading
to fairly benign/sub-SCA conditions. Another cold front crosses the
waters Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing a decent chance of
low-end SCAs with N-NW winds. Sub-SCA conditions return from late
Mon-Wed AM. SCAs are again possible from late Wednesday into
Thursday as a stronger cold front approaches and crosses the waters.

Seas gradually build to around 3 feet later today-tonight (locally 4
feet south), with waves in the bay averaging around 2-3 feet. Seas
diminish back to around 2 feet Sunday, before building to 3-4 ft by
Monday behind the next front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     this evening for ANZ632-634.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ633-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...AJZ/NB
MARINE...AJB/ERI