Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

922
FXUS61 KAKQ 051055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
555 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion. Localized rainfall amounts in
excess of 2 inches are becoming increasingly likely, especially
across eastern portions of the area. NW winds are now expected
to be elevated across the waters later Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is
expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall
is expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
possible.

Early morning surface analysis shows the area of high pressure
offshore with a cold front approaching the western edge of the
state. There is a band of light showers on radar moving through
central VA as of this writing. A brief couple of hundredths of
an inch of rain will be possible if you`re under one. Light
scattered showers will remain possible through just after
daybreak. Additionally, guidance shows some patchy fog
potentially developing across the southern VA Piedmont down into
interior NE NC between 5-8am, though it shouldn`t be nearly as
widespread or dense as it was yesterday morning.

Another warm day is anticipated today as southerly flow
increases ahead of the approaching front. High temperatures are
forecast to climb into the mid to upper 70s, with a few
locations across SE VA and NE NC approaching 80 degrees. Skies
will remain mostly cloudy, and a few isolated showers will be
possible throughout the afternoon. However, the more widespread
rainfall is expected to hold off until Thursday night.

The front will reach our CWA late this evening. This will be
when the main batch of rain begins to initially develop across
western and central portions of the area. The focus of the
steadier rain will then shift to the eastern half of the area
mid-day Friday through the evening hours as the front slowly
progresses eastward. A wave of low pressure now looks to also
develop and track along the frontal boundary, which will create
locally enhanced areas of rainfall. Models continue to wobble
this corridor of heavier rainfall maximums back and forth a bit,
but the general consensus is for it to be from around Emporia
through the Middle Peninsula and eastern Northern Neck, up to
the Maryland Eastern Shore. Its becoming increasingly likely
that there will be pockets of over 2 to 2.5 inches somewhere in
that corridor. This will be a favorable environment for locally
heavy rainfall, with PWATs forecast to increase to 200+ percent
of normal for early November. In addition, guidance suggests a
corridor of enhanced mid-level frontogenesis and strong ascent
associated with the frontal boundary and the developing wave of
low pressure. This could support a southwest to northeast
oriented band of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, potentially
persisting over some locations for several hours. Further
inland, rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 appear reasonable, with
the lowest amounts expected across our northwestern counties.
Confidence in those totals of 1.25 to 2 inches across eastern
VA, northeastern NC, and the Eastern Shore is higher with this
forecast package, along with the aforementioned pockets of
higher amounts.

A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible Friday,
particularly across SE VA and NE NC. Forecast soundings indicate
increasing deep-layer shear, generally 30 to 40 kts, with
modest surface based instability developing in the warm sector
(~500 J/kg MLCAPE). While the environment could support a few
stronger storms, widespread cloud cover and ongoing
precipitation will likely substantially limit destabilization.
As a result, organized severe weather is generally not
anticipated, though an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be
completely ruled out across far SE portions of the area. SPC
does have a Marginal Risk of severe weather for SE VA/NE NC.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this
weekend into early next week.

The rain will gradually diminish from west to east later Friday
afternoon into Friday night as the cold front pushes offshore.
A closed low pressure will drop into the northern Mid-
Atlantic/southern New England region on Saturday, reinforcing
our northwesterly flow. This will allow drier and cooler air to
fill into the area, dropping high temperatures back to more
seasonable values. Highs this weekend and into early next week
will generally be in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will increase
across the local waters Saturday evening into Sunday, so some
coastal locations could see breezy winds. Overnight lows will
drop into the mid to upper 30s (low 40s by the coast) each
night. Current model runs are now showing the dry weather
persisting into the middle of next week as opposed to bringing
in any more rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 600 AM EST Thursday...

Generally VFR conditions prevail early this morning, with the
exception of far western areas where some IFR CIGs have
developed. RIC may see some MVFR CIGs through ~15Z before
generally improving to VFR. Otherwise, mid and high clouds will
continue to stream in today. A few scattered SHRA are possible
through the day, but these should not be heavy enough to produce
any VIS issues. Winds turn to the SSW and increase to 10-15 kt
after ~15Z. Lowering CIGs and SHRA will start to develop in
central and western areas after 00Z, then spread eastward with
RA/+RA through the end of the TAF period. VIS restrictions are
likely.

Outlook: Widespread RA and isolated TSRA will result in
periods of sub-VFR conditions for most of the day on Friday.
Conditions improve Friday night into Saturday, with VFR
conditions anticipated through the weekend. Some NW breezes are
likely Saturday afternoon and Sunday, especially across the
eastern shore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:
Sub-SCA winds continue through Friday, but winds will likely
reach SCA levels over the weekend in the wake of a cold frontal
passage on Friday. The most likely timeframe for SCAs is late
Friday night through midday Sunday. High pressure continues to
move well offshore early this morning as a cold front approaches
the area from the west. SE winds around 10 kt prevail over the
waters with 3-4 foot seas. Winds become more southerly later
today and increase to 10-15 kt. Wind speeds remain in that range
through tonight and into part of Friday. Occasional gusts to 20
kt are possible. Seas may briefly reach 5 feet later tonight-
Friday, but confidence is far too low to issue SCAs. The next
upper trough approaches and deepens over the Great Lakes on
Friday. This feature will drag a cold front through the waters
Friday evening-Friday night. Showers are likely on Friday along
and ahead of the front, with a wind shift to the NW behind it.
After the FROPA Friday night, the winds will shift to the NW and
increase to 15-20 kt with frequent gusts to 25 kt. Winds may
diminish by a couple of knots Saturday afternoon. However, a
secondary CAA surge crosses the waters Saturday evening...with NW
winds increasing to 20-25 kt with a few gusts to 30 kt possible
Saturday evening-early Sunday morning. Confidence in SCAs is
increasing, and local wind probabilities show a 60-90% chance of
sustained 18 kt winds on the bay for much of the time from
Saturday morning-midday Sunday. Seas likely build to 4-6 feet
over the weekend across the nearshore waters (highest 20nm
offshore). High pressure will build back into the area later on
Sunday into Monday, which will result in winds diminishing below
SCA thresholds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/JKP
AVIATION...LKB/JKP
MARINE...ERI