Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

212
FXUS61 KAKQ 120752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
352 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- Updated discussions.

- The arrival of rain chances has been slowed down 3-6 hrs on
  Wednesday with most areas dry until Wed evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Patchy fog early this morning, otherwise dry and
pleasant today with mild temperatures.

2) Another cold front brings additional chances for widespread
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms late Wed/Wed night.

3) Warming up to above average temperatures for the weekend,
with well above normal temps into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy fog early this morning, otherwise dry and
pleasant today with mild temperatures.

Current WX analysis indicates sfc high pressure centered from
the eastern Great Lakes into the local area. Skies that cleared
out late yesterday after the rain, in combination with little to
no wind have allowed for areas of fog across much of the region.
A look at area cameras shows that widespread dense fog has not
developed, but will continue to monitor for an SPS issuance if
the fog becomes more widespread. Temperatures are quite cool
with many locations in the upper 30s, with mid 40s to around 50F
at the coast. The fog should burn off rather quickly this
morning, with a mainly sunny day on tap. Warmest than Monday,
but still a little below normal with highs in the low-mid 70s
inland, and mid/upper 60s to around 70F at the coast (as winds
become onshore later in the aftn). Mostly clear and milder
tonight; enough of a southerly flow should preclude any fog
tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another cold front brings additional chances for widespread
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms late Wed/Wed night.

The next best chance at widespread rainfall across the area will be
late Wednesday, and mostly Wed evening/Wed night as another
cold front drops through the region. There remains some
uncertainty in the exact timing of the front, but the models
(as well as the NBM) have trended slower, which keeps the best
environment for instability and tstms to our west, with very
limited instability noted across our area. In addition, the dew
pts per numerical guidance are likely to be in the 40s to lower
50s Wed aftn in advance of the showers (undercutting the
typically overdone NBM dew pts). This should further limit any
aftn instability. The best dynamics remain W of our area at this
time, a deep trough aloft should hopefully be enough for some
higher rainfall rates, mainly Wed night along the actual front.
Due to the uncertainty regarding the timing of the front, have
maintained a slight chance of thunder as the front moves
through. The best chance would likely be in the piedmont since
sunset would put a damper on instability in the east based on
current timing. Regardless, this is still a low confidence set-
up for storms overall. Not looking like a big rain-maker,
either. Both the GEFS and the Euro ens have a pretty wide
footprint of 70%+ for >0.1", but probs drop off significantly
for >0.5". The current forecast keeps rainfall totals generally
at or below 0.50", and PoPs across far SE VA and NE NC were
lowered to 50-60% as most of the models keep better dynamics to
the north. Locally higher amounts are possible if storms do
develop.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warming up to above average temperatures for the weekend,
with well above normal temps into next week.

Temperatures remain cool Thursday, as an upper low becomes
centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Have added a
slight chc for aftn showers to much of the FA given the cold
pool aloft, though most areas should be dry with dew pts in the
40s. Highs Thursday will be about 5-10 degrees below normal.
After that however, significant changes are on the way, with
decent model agreement that a flat upper ridge over the
southern US starts to amplify and become anchored from the Gulf
coast to off the SE coast. Surface high pressure parked offshore
will will allow southerly flow to prevail, leading to above
normal temperatures returning by the weekend, with highs in the
upper 80s and nearing 90F possible. Some of the deterministic
models do show some chance for precip along a warm front Sunday,
but the NBM/blended guidance keeps it dry. Current ensemble
guidance is shows a high probability for highs into the 90s Sun-
Tue (especially Mon-Tue) for much of the area, and the antecedent
drought conditions should make this rather easy to occur.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

SKies that cleared out late yesterday with light or calm wind
over areas where light rain fell have allowed for areas of fog early
this morning. Most of this is shallow ground fog but there could
be some low CIGs from time to time, especially at PHF. Have
included TEMPO groups through 10Z at RIC/SBY/PHF for IFR-LIFR
VSBYs. Otherwise, it will be sunny today with light winds,
becoming W-SW at 5-10 kt inland, and shifting onshore to the E
closer to the coast after ~18Z. Mostly clear tonight, with S-SE
winds 5-10 kt, becoming SW. This milder flow should preclude any
fog tonight into Wed AM.

Outlook: VFR with a breezy S wind Wednesday, gusting to ~25 kt.
Showers become likely late Wed-Wed night and will bring the
potential for some periodic flight restrictions. Winds shift to
the NW Thursday, with VFR conditions. Dry and VFR conditions
continue Fri-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected today with SCA possible for
the bay as early as tonight.

-  Small Craft Advisories are likely during the day Wednesday with
SE winds ahead of an approaching cold Front.

Morning weather analysis shows a broad high pressure over the Mid-
Atlantic. Winds have decreased throughout the evening and into the
early morning hours. The pressure gradient continues to remain the
tightest over the coastal waters leading to NW winds of 10-15 kt.
Seas have lowed and are around 1 ft across the bay and 3-4ft across
the majority of the coastal waters. The recent buoys off the NC
coast continue to show 5ft seas, however, they are slowly
decreasing. The SCA remains in effect until 7am, but if trends
continue the SCA maybe able to be canceled early.

High pressure will continue to move over the area today bringing
benign marine conditions. By the afternoon winds will become light
and variable as the high is overhead and seas will be around 1ft
across the bay and 3-4 ft across the ocean. Tonight the high will
move offshore and SE winds will return. Winds increase to 10-15 kt
with gusts up to 20 kt. However, confidence in frequent 20 kt gusts
are low at this time and no SCA have been issued for the bay at this
time. The better chance for SCA come during the day Wednesday as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front.
Winds will increase and remain out of the SE between 20-25 kt with
gusts upwards of 30kt. Seas will also increase to 3-4ft across the
bay and 4-5 ft across the coastal waters. Winds will become NW
Thursday and Friday with SCA possible late Thursday into early
Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...HET/KMC