Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

472
FXUS61 KAKQ 040529
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
129 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
06z aviation update

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A prolonged and widespread heat wave will continue through the
holiday weekend before breaking down early next week. This has the
potential to be the most significant in both magnitude and duration
since July 2012 for most of the forecast area.

2) The risk for thunderstorms gradually increases over the next few
days. Any storm that develops could produce strong to severe wind
gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rain.

3) Temperatures gradually trend closer to normal by early next week,
with the potentially for unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A prolonged and widespread heat wave will continue
through the holiday weekend before breaking down early next week.
This has the potential to be the most significant in both magnitude
and duration since July 2012 for most of the forecast area.

This afternoon, an anonymously strong upper-level dome of high
pressure, with the current analysis placing the strength of the high
at ~596 dm, remains in control of the weather pattern. At the
surface, ~1021 mb high pressure is centered over the local area.
Temperatures this afternoon have already climbed well into the mid-
upper 90s, with a few locations already approaching 100 F.
Temperatures will continue to climb over the few hours, with highs
expected to range from the upper 90s to the lower 100s. The heat,
combined with very humid conditions (dewpoints in the low to mid
70s, locally upper 70s to around 80) will allow for widespread heat
indices around or in excess of 110 F into the early evening hours.
Not much relief from the heat is expected tonight with low
temperatures only dropping into the upper 70s and urban areas will
likely see temperatures struggle to drop below 80 F. Heat indices
likely remain elevated to 100+ F through ~10 PM (especially in the
urban areas).

The upper pattern gradually starts to break down later tomorrow and
especially Sunday into early next week. Similar to today, Saturday
will see high temperatures in the upper 90s to the lower 100s with
widespread heat indices of 110+ F. There is a higher risk for
thunderstorms Saturday, particularly N of the NC/VA state line, and
this could put an early end to dangerous heat indices. Regardless,
we remain quite confident that at least the 10 AM-3 PM time period
will be dangerously hot. A degree or two cooler by Sunday (but still
very hot) as 850 mb temps begin to drop, cloud cover becomes a bit
more prevalent, and additional chances for showers/storms return in
the afternoon.

Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect for most of the area this
afternoon through Saturday evening. Heat Advisories remain in effect
for the MD Beaches and northern Outer Banks. Sunday will likely need
at least Heat Advisories for a majority of the forecast area, with
the potential for Extreme Warnings in a few locations. We will
revisit Sunday heat headline decisions in future forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGE 2...The risk for thunderstorms gradually increases over
the next few days. Any storm that develops could produce strong to
severe wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rain.

With the strong ridge aloft, subsidence is favored. A stout cap is
also in place over the area, which can be seen on the afternoon GOES
visible satellite imagery with only limited afternoon cumulus just
now beginning to form across the local area. Given this, combined
with surface high pressure and a lack of forcing, expecting little
to no shower or thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening,
with dry conditions prevailing. However, it should be noted that if
a storm can develop in this environment, surface-based CAPE values
in excess of 4000 J/kg across a majority of the forecast area
combined with steep low-level lapse rates would favor strong
downbursts. As a result, SPC does have northern and western portions
of the area highlighted in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for
severe weather this afternoon and evening.

There is higher confidence in at least scattered thunderstorm
potential on Independence Day/Saturday as the ridge begins to break
down. Would expect any storms to develop in the lee of the higher
terrain or in the Piedmont, moving eastward in the deep-layer
westerly flow into the evening. There is again a risk for severe-
caliber wind gusts given the very favorable thermodynamic
environment and a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) encompasses most of
our VA and MD counties. Additionally, a belt of slightly higher
flow/shear across the northern half of our area could also allow for
an area of enhanced severe potential where some potential for
upscale growth into a cluster-type feature is possible. SPC has
highlighted this area in a 30% wind risk for Saturday. These storms
could interfere with evening festivities so users are urged to
closely monitor the weather and have a plan in place due to impacts
from both the heat and storms.

Additional threats of strong-severe storms are on the table both
Sunday and Monday, with higher confidence in more widespread
coverage these days. Damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and
frequent lightning will be the primary storms threats.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures gradually trend closer to normal by
early next week, with the potentially for unsettled weather.

The ridge becomes shunted to our south beyond Monday, with the upper-
level flow turning quasi-zonal. This pattern is very typical for the
middle of summer with daily chances for showers and storms expected
in the midst of surface troughing and weak disturbances passing
through aloft. Temperatures will also trend back toward seasonal
norms for most of next week, generally in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

Flight conditions will generally be VFR through the Fourth of
July. Sunny/mostly sunny skies are expected this morning into
the first part of the afternoon, with just FEW-SCT CU developing
during peak heating. By later this afternoon, tstm chances
increase, especially north of RIC-SBY line. Given the hot and
humid airmass, strong-severe gusts, frequent lightning, heavy
rain, and VSBY reductions are possible in storms. The best
potential (30-40% chance) is after 20z at RIC and after 22z at
SBY. Will handle with PROB30s for the time being. Also included
a PROB30 at PHF but confidence in storm coverage is lower down
that way. Mainly dry conditions expected for ORF and ECG. Winds
today avg 5-10 kt out of S-SW, though ORF may become E-NE this
afternoon.

Outlook: Outside of continuing chances for showers/storms and
localized flight restrictions, VFR prevails through the weekend
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions will prevail through the weekend, with
mainly south-southwesterly winds.

- Elevated wind gusts from strong thunderstorms are possible during
afternoon and evening hours Saturday and Sunday.

Surface high pressure is centered over the area extending into the
SE CONUS from a strong upper air ridge over the East Coast. Winds
are generally out of the SSW around 5-10 kt with waves around 1 ft
and seas around 2 ft. Mostly south-southwesterly winds will continue
through at least the weekend, likely into early next week. There
will likely be some diurnal variances in wind speed and direction
throughout the day from land/sea breezes over the next few days.
Seas will remain around 2-3 ft with waves 1-2 ft through the weekend
as well. Benign marine conditions will continue through at least the
weekend, likely into mid week, as the high pressure remains dominant
over the area and is slow to break down. The risk of isolated to
scattered tstms increases over the next few days, which could
produce some gusty winds Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening.
Any stronger wind gusts will be handled with SMWs if necessary.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs:

- Site:  Fri 7/3    Sat 7/4    Sun 7/5

- RIC:  100/1954   100/2002   102/2012
- ORF:   99/1954    98/1997    98/2012
- SBY:   98/1954   100/1919   102/2012
- ECG:   98/1954   100/1997   100/2012

Record High Mins:

- Site:  Fri 7/3    Sat 7/4    Sun 7/5

- RIC:    77/2014    77/1900    79/2012
- ORF:    78/2014    79/2012    80/1999
- SBY:    76/2014    78/2012    81/2012
- ECG:    78/2014    78/2012    77/2024

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ radar is down due to mechanical issues without an
estimated time of return.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>024.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025.
NC...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
VA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097>100-509>525-528>531.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB/AJZ
CLIMATE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...