Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

044
FXUS61 KAKQ 231931
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
231 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-All winter weather headlines have been allowed to expire.

-Light rain chances increase across the Northern Neck and an
 Eastern Shore Tuesday night. With much better rain chances CWA
 wide Thursday/Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lows fall into the 20s tonight. Any snow that has
melted will likely refreeze, resulting in areas of black ice.

2) A few showers are possible across the Northern Neck
and Eastern Shore late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with
widespread rain likely from Thursday through Friday.

3) Minor tidal flooding is possible at Ocean City
tonight, but tidal anomalies continue to fall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Lows fall into the 20s tonight. Any snow that has
melted will likely refreeze, resulting in areas of black ice.

The impressive coastal low that brought heavy snow and high winds to
the eastern shore is now east of Cape Cod and continues to move away
from the area. Temperatures are above freezing everywhere and
lingering light snow has come to an end. WNW winds are still gusting
to 30-35 mph, which may result in patchy blowing snow on the eastern
shore. However, with the heavy, wet nature of the snow this
shouldn`t be a big issue. All winter headlines have expired. Skies
clear and winds diminish a bit tonight with lows falling into the
20s. Wet surfaces (especially secondary roads, bridges, and parking
lots) will refreeze, causing black ice.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A few showers are possible across the Northern Neck
and Eastern Shore late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with
widespread rain likely from Thursday through Friday.

A week shortwave will track far north of the local area Tuesday
night into Wednesday as sfc low pressure tracks across the Great
Lakes. A decent portion of the snow will melt on Tuesday given highs
above freezing, ample sunshine, and the late February sun angle.
Temps will rise into the mid 40s west of the bay. Can`t rule out a
light rain or snow shower Tuesday night/Wednesday (mainly N/NE) as
that system passes by to our north, but rain amounts will be a few
hundredths of an inch at most. Dry and mild on Wednesday. Then, our
next good chance for widespread precip (rain) arrives during the day
on Thursday as another low pressure system approaches from the WSW.
Widespread rain will likely continue through Thursday night before
exiting the area on Friday. Dew pts recover into the 50s, but not
expecting thunder with this system as any appreciable sfc-based
instability remains well to our south. Though confidence in
widespread rain is moderate to high. In fact, the ECMWF Ensemble
shows a 60-80% chance for a half inch of rain across southern VA and
NE NC from Thu-Fri (with the GFS Ensemble drier but showing decent
probs for at least 0.25").


KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor tidal flooding is possible at Ocean City
tonight, but tidal anomalies continue to fall.

NW winds have caused tidal anomalies to dramatically decrease across
many of the coastal stations today. One exception is at Ocean City
where anomalies have remained about 2-2.5 ft above astronomical tide.
This anomaly may stay until the midnight high tide at Ocean City
leading to brief minor tidal flooding. However, confidence is not
high enough to issue a coastal flood advisory.

As the winds decrease tonight, the tidal anomalies may rise at other
locations. However, it will be tough to reach minor flood at any
other location with tonight`s high tide and have opted to lower all
other sites to below minor flood.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1235 PM EST Monday...

Conditions continue to improve at SBY with only very light snow
(VSBYs of 3-6SM) and MVFR CIGs. VFR CIGs prevail elsewhere. All
sites will rise to VFR with clearing skies tonight into Tuesday
morning. WNW winds will continue to gust to ~25 kt through the
afternoon before diminishing slightly tonight. Could still see a
few gusts to 20 kt through the day on Tuesday.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected to persist
through at least Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Winds gradually subside through Tuesday. A gale warning persists
through 7pm for the northern waters with small craft advisories
through Tuesday.

- Low pressure over the Great Lakes will allow a warm front to move
north of the area on Tue night/Wed. This will allow SW winds to
increase to 15 to 25 kt with small craft advisory conditions again
possible.

- A cold front passes through the waters on Thursday which will
allow the winds to turn northerly while briefly increasing to near
20 kt before diminishing for the weekend.

NW winds are slowly subsiding across the area as the cyclone off of
New England continues to track NE. Still likely some gale force
gusts over the northern coastal waters and have opted to keep the
Gale Warning out for this region until 7pm. Otherwise, with the
pressure gradient just gradually relaxing through tomorrow, will
keep Small Craft Advisories out for the remainder of the waters
through 4pm tomorrow before the ridge axis moves over the area by
Tue evening.

There will be a brief lull of winds as this ridge axis moves over
late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. However, winds will
quickly turn SW and increase to 15-25 kt by late Tue night or Wed
morning as strong low pressure moves over the Great Lakes. The cold
front passes across the waters Thu allowing winds to briefly turn NE
with possible marginal small craft advisory conditions. Winds
diminish for the weekend with 15 kt or less through Sunday under
high pressure.
Minor tidal flooding is possible at Ocean City
tonight, but tidal aonmalies continue to fall.
&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-631-650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ632>638-656-
     658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/MRD
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...MRD