Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

221
FXUS61 KAKQ 251034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
634 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- SCAs have been cancelled for the lower Bay and lower James
  river.

- Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for the high tide
  cycle today for Va Beach/NC OBX, and for locations along the
  Rappahannock/Potomac and bayside of the MD eastern shore and
  Accomack VA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through midweek, trending
to above normal late in the week.

2) Nuisance flooding expected with today`s morning to early afternoon
high tide cycle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through midweek,
trending to above normal late in the week.

The latest WX analysis continues to show a highly amplified
upper level pattern, with sfc high pressure centered from
southern New England into the Delmarva. SCT-BKN clouds are
passing through far southern VA and NE NC, with a mainly clear
sky elsewhere. Temperatures are currently mostly in the 40s,
with pockets of upper 30s over the far north, and 50s at the
immediate coast in the SE. Expect readings to fall a few degrees
through sunrise, with patchy frost possible over the far north,
but not enough for a Frost Advisory. As the high continues to
settle in from the north later today, cloud cover should be less
than the past 2 days, but a period of SCT-BKN cumulus are still
likely for southern VA and NE NC. High temperatures warm a few
degrees with highs in the mid 60s along the coast and upper 60s
to near 70F across the inland areas. For tonight/early Monday
morning will likely see the greatest potential for a more
widespread frost spreading east from the piedmont to interior SE
VA as better decoupling is expected with the sfc high nearly
overhead. Continued the same thinking as the previous shift to
go a few degrees (or several degrees in some areas) colder than
NBM, with mid 30s forecast for the piedmont (locally lower 30s
possible) and and mid- upper 30s for interior SE VA. Depending
on trends later today, a Frost Advisory may be considered for
portions of the area, especially in the NW where temperatures
are most likely to approach freezing.

After the cold start, turning warmer Monday and Tuesday ahead
of the next (dry) front, then slightly cooler Wednesday and
staying dry. Temperatures warm above normal late in the week
with high temperatures well into the 70s for most, along with no
rain chances as moisture is expected to stay offshore off the
SE US coast. The 25/00z ECMWF ensemble/GEFS chance for
measurable rain (.01"+) of rain through the end of the month is
basically zero aside from some low probs showing up in
southeastern portions of the area later in the week into the
following weekend, but when switching the threshold to 0.1" the
chance is less than 10% area-wide. It should be noted that
despite the ongoing drought/precipitation deficit across much of
the area, none of our long-term climate sites will rank among
the 10 driest Octobers on record (as October has several
occurrences with monthly rainfall amounts of less than 0.50").

KEY MESSAGE 2...Nuisance flooding expected with today`s morning
to early afternoon high tide cycle.

Tidal anomalies will remain elevated today although they continue to
trend downward. These elevated anomalies in tandem with the higher
of the two astronomical tides of the day will push water levels
close to minor flooding thresholds this morning into the early
afternoon for locations adjacent the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay and
Rappahannock River. Coastal Flood Statements have been issued to
account for this.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Sunday...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the 25/12z
TAF period. Winds are from the NE ~10 kt near the coast, and
light/variable inland. Some patchy ground fog is being observed
across interior SE VA, but this is not expected to affect any of
the main terminals. The wind remains NE to ENE today as the
high gradually builds southward. Less cloud cover is expected
and should mainly be confined to the southeastern terminals, but
will probably see a few hrs worth of SCT cu at RIC as well.
Mainly SKC with light winds tonight into early Monday. Could see
some patchy fog, but it will likely miss the main terminals so
have not included any VSBY restrictions at any of the TAFs.

Outlook: Lighter N to NE winds are expected on Monday. Elevated
N to NE winds return Tuesday and Wednesday. It remains dry, with
VFR conditions continuing.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated winds and seas will continue across the southern coastal
waters today. Seas will remain elevated across the southern coastal
waters into Monday.

High pressure over New England this morning will gradually settle
southward over the mid-Atlantic region on Monday. The position of
the high to our north today will keep winds and seas elevated over
the southern coastal waters while the remainder of the waters will
enjoy sub-SCA conditions. As of 2 am this morning, winds were
already less than 15 kt for all waters except offshore south of Cape
Charles where NE winds were 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas
were generally 3-4 ft except, 5-7 ft south of Cape Charles. Waves 1-
2 ft on the Bay. Similar conditions are expected through today.
Therefore, SCAs have been cancelled for all but the coastal waters
south of Cape Charles. The SCAs for the southern waters go until 6
am Monday morning. By Monday, high pressure will move over the
region with light winds for all waters but lingering 5-6 ft seas
south of Cape Charles. SCAs may need to be extending out through
Monday to account for this.

New high pressure building across the Great Lakes region and into
the Northeast Tuesday-Wednesday may bring another uptick in wind
speeds and seas. Additional SCAs may be needed for the coastal
waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...JDM/RHR