Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

444
FXUS61 KAKQ 181622
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1122 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisories continue for the Northern Neck,
western portions of the Middle Peninsula, and MD Eastern Shore.
Given that temperatures have been slightly warmer than forecast,
snow amounts have trended down slightly. Still, 1" to locally
2" is forecast in the advisory area, with 0.5-1" elsewhere, and
lower amounts in far SE VA/NE NC. Uncertainty continues to
remain higher than normal given marginal temperature conditions
which could limit accumulations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Confidence is moderate in portions of the area seeing some
wet snow today, with the most likely timing for snow from 3-8 PM.
1" to locally 2" is expected across the VA Northern Neck and MD
Eastern Shore, where Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued. 0.5- 1" is expected elsewhere, with lesser amounts for
southside Hampton Roads and coastal NE NC. However, uncertainty
remains due to marginal surface temperatures.

2) A strong push of Arctic air arrives for early next week, with
below normal temperatures to continue through the first half of next
week. Tuesday is expected to be the coldest day, with single digit
wind chills possible Tuesday morning.

3) Another storm system may impact the area next weekend, but it is
way too early for specifics at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1120 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Confidence is moderate in portions of the area seeing
some wet snow today, with the most likely timing for snow from
3-8 PM. 1" to locally 2" is expected across the VA Northern
Neck and MD Eastern Shore, where Winter Weather Advisories have
been issued. 0.5-1" is expected elsewhere, with lesser amounts
for southside Hampton Roads and coastal NE NC. However,
uncertainty remains due to marginal surface temperatures.

An upper trough to our west pushes E today. A fast moving shortwave
at the base of the trough (currently in GA as of 11 AM this
morning) is forecast to strengthen as it takes on a slight
negative tilt just before it crosses the area between 5-8 PM.
At the surface, low pressure off the Carolina coast deepens
while tracking NE through today before exiting well to the NE
tonight. Steady rain continues across SE VA/NE NC, while
slightly drier low-level air has temporarily allowed precip to
diminish over the NW 1/3 of the area. Also, temperatures are
mainly in the 39-44F range, which is a bit warmer than some of
the guidance had last night/yesterday. Expect precipitation to
overspread the entire area by early afternoon as the shortwave
approaches. A push of weak CAA arrives from the NNW this
afternoon with the better CAA holding off until this
evening/tonight. 925-850mb temps are progged to drop to -1 to -4C
across the NW two-thirds of the area by the late afternoon as
precip intensity peaks. Right now, a melting layer around
1500-2000 ft AGL is clearly evident on both the AKQ and RAX
radars. The key to whether precip can change over to snow will
be the thermal profiles in the lowest 1000-1500 ft AGL. If it
can drop to 32-33F for a few hours due to wet-bulb/column
cooling effects, then a period of accumulating snow is likely
(mainly on grassy/elevated surfaces). On the other hand, if it
doesn`t drop below 34-36F, precip would be predominantly rain
with perhaps a brief period of snow at the tail end of the
precip during the early evening. Additionally, snow will be more
likely where precip rates are heavier. The incoming 12z
guidance has trended toward the latter scenario (less snow),
but will keep around or just above 1" in the forecast for the
advisory area for continuity.

There are still model differences with respect thermal
profiles, as there is good agreement on the synoptic details
and QPF placement. Some of the 12z models still have a notable
burst of snow accum from central NC into S-Central VA this
evening, but are not as robust as last night`s 00z runs which
were showing 1-2". The HRRR has been consistent in showing
less than 1" across our entire area (with most areas less than
0.5"). Still, will keep at least 0.5" of snow in the forecast
in most areas aside from SE VA/NE NC. The best chance for 1-2"
is from the Northern Neck onto the Eastern Shore, coinciding
with the best overlap of dynamic cooling effects and mid-level
frontogenesis. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for
these areas, in addition to western portions of the Middle
Peninsula. SE VA and NE NC still look to struggle to see much,
if any, snow despite the higher QPF, mainly due to temps
struggling to drop until precip departs this evening. However,
we will be closely monitoring the evolution of the temperatures
and precip through the day in case additional short-fused
advisories may be needed.

Regardless of any headlines, would expect any accums to be mostly
confined to grassy and elevated surfaces and not roadways. We could
see accums on roadways if it snows hard enough for a couple of
hours, though not that confident in this. A reasonable worse case
scenario would be 2-2.5" for most of the area with 1" for SE VA
and NE NC, mainly if precip intensity can overcome marginal sfc
temps. Colder and drier air arrives from NW-SE this evening
bringing a rapid end to the precip. Will also have to monitor
for any freezing of residual wet/slushy surfaces tonight.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong push of Arctic air arrives for early next
week behind a secondary dry cold front, with below averages
temperatures to continue through the first half of next week.

Arctic air arrives Monday night behind a secondary cold front.
Frigid temperatures are expected for at least the first half of next
week, with the coldest air occurring Monday night, Tuesday, and into
early Wednesday morning. EPS/GEFS continue to show 2m temperature
anomalies 15F to nearly 20F degrees below average. Overnight lows in
the upper teens to mid 20s are expected Sunday night, and primarily
teens Monday/Tuesday night. Cold Weather Advisories are possible Mon
night given forecast wind chills in the single digits across far
northern portions of the FA (particularly the Eastern Shore). While
day-time temps will be rather chilly each day Monday through
Wednesday, Tuesday is forecast to be the coldest day with highs
struggling to make it above freezing north of I-64.

Temperatures may attempt to moderate a bit by the middle and end of
the week as the upper flow turns more zonal. However, daily highs
still look to be slightly below normal. While it also looks mainly
dry, a series of fronts toward the end of the week could bring
sporadic/light precip.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Another storm system may impact the area next
weekend, but it is way too early for specifics at this time.

Despite the slight moderating trend is expected late this week,
Arctic air is expected to remain entrenched across north and
northeast portions of the CONUS through late week into next weekend.
The flow aloft largely remains zonal but strong (1045+mb) Arctic
high pressure is progged to build into the north-central CONUS by
next Saturday. A couple of fast moving shortwaves may track over the
area next Sat and or Sun, which could bring chances for more
widespread precip. There is some ensemble support (including from
the Euro AIFS) for wintry wx across northern portions of our area,
which seem reasonable given the strong supply of cold air to our N.
Ultimately, exact precip types will be highly dependent on
impossible-to-resolve (at this range) storm tracks. Will continue to
monitor over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 545 AM EST Sunday...

Widespread rain is moving in this morning. CIGs have been
slowly lowering, but remain VFR at this hour. Expect them to
quickly drop to MVFR over the next few hours and then IFR after
14-16z. LIFR CIGs are also possible by this evening. Lowered
VSBY (2-4 SM) is also likely in the rain. The rain likely
changes to snow or a rain/snow mix at RIC and SBY during the
afternoon, with light to occasionally moderate snow possible for
a few hours mid-late afternoon. The most likely timing for snow
at RIC and SBY is 18-01z. There could be a few hours of -SN
with IFR VSBYs at PHF/ORF between 20-01z, with mainly rain at
ECG (brief mix possible ~23z). Winds become N-NW around 5-10
knots today, though no significant wind is expected with the
precip. Conditions improve later this evening and tonight as the
precip moves offshore.

Outlook: Dry/VFR prevails Tuesday morning through Wednesday. A
cold front potentially crosses the area Thursday with only a 20%
chance of showers at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 635 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
  and coastal waters later this afternoon into tonight due to
  the potential for 20 to 25 knot wind gusts.

- Another round of SCAs is possible Monday night into Tuesday as
  another cold front crosses the waters.

SCAs have been expanded to include the coastal waters and
Currituck Sound late this afternoon into tonight. A brief window
of gusts around 30 knots will be possible ~00z/7 PM this
evening.

Previous Discussion: Early this morning, a stalled cold front
is located just off the coast. Low pressure is expected to
develop along this front later this morning, eventually lifting
northeast of the local area by this evening. Winds are currently
light and variable over the waters. Seas range from 2 to 3 feet
and waves in the Chesapeake Bay are 1 foot or less. Winds
increase and become N to NW today, generally ranging around 10
to 15 knots. Winds increase further this later this afternoon
into early tonight as the pressure gradient briefly tightens due
to the area of low pressure. Low-end SCA conditions are
expected across the Chesapeake Bay, with latest wind probs now
up to ~60-70% chances for 20+ knot gusts around 00z/7 PM this
evening (especially across the northern bay). With the guidance
showing the increasing SCA potential, opted to issue a SCA for
the Chesapeake Bay from 21z/4 PM EST Sunday until 06z/1 AM EST
Monday. There is less confidence across the coastal waters for
SCA conditions, but local wind probs do show a 3-4 hour window
from ~23 to 03z for 25+ knot gusts (especially out 20 nm). Winds
diminish to 10 to 15 knots after Midnight, becoming W and
eventually SW by Monday morning. SW winds increase Monday
afternoon ahead of a strong cold front which is expected to
cross the waters Monday evening into Monday night. In the wake
of the front, winds become NW and average ~15 to 20 knots.
Additional SCAs may be needed for at least portions of the
Chesapeake Bay and the northern coastal waters Monday evening
into Tuesday morning. Generally benign, sub-SCA, conditions take
hold through the midweek timeframe before another system
potentially approaches next weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ064-
     075>078-085-517>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     this evening for ANZ633-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...AJB/SW
MARINE...AJB