Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

573
FXUS61 KAKQ 011023
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
523 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area this morning. A  few light snow
showers are possible this morning from Richmond northeast into
the Eastern Shore with that front. Warmer weather returns on
Friday ahead of the next system forecast to impact the region on
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front drops through the area this morning. A brief
  period of snow or rain/snow showers is possible along the
  front on the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore around
  sunrise.

- A weak system may bring a very light accumulation of snow to
  the MD Eastern Shore and Northern Neck tonight. With
  temperatures in the 20s, snow could quickly stick to area
  roadways if it does occur. However, confidence is the snow is
  low at this time.

Early morning wx analysis shows a strong shortwave digging from the
Great Lakes to New England, with deepening sfc low pressure over
southern Quebec. A cold front over PA is continuing to push
southward toward the area. With elevated (10-15 mph) SW winds, temps
are still in the upper 30s-lower 40s and won`t fall much more this
morning. The front will cross the area from north to south between 6
AM and noon. A line of snow squalls is located along the front, but
this will weaken as it approaches the area due to both lack of
deeper moisture and rising upper heights farther south (removed from
that shortwave). Nevertheless, wouldn`t be that surprised to see a
brief snow shower over N/NE portions of the area. With surface temps
just above freezing, not expecting any impacts on area roadways. A
"high-end" scenario for this morning would be 0.1-0.2" on the grass,
which is most likely on the MD Eastern Shore if it happens.
Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny behind the front this afternoon
with highs ranging from the mid 30s N/NE with upper 30s-40s
elsewhere (warmest S).

Weak sfc high pressure settles nearby tonight. It will be cold with
lows in the 20s (but increasing clouds will make it hard for temps
to drop into the upper teens). Another fast moving disturbance in NW
flow aloft is also progged to track over N/NE portions of the FA
tonight. Similar to Wednesday AM, the low-levels will be quite dry
and we`ll likely see some light radar echoes across the northern
neck and eastern shore. The main question is whether the low-levels
can saturate enough for any light snow to reach the ground. Models
differ in solutions, but the ECMWF/RAP/HRRR show the potential for a
couple tenths of an inch of snow over the MD Eastern Shore and
possibly the Northern Neck. With temps in the 20s, any snow will
stick to roads very quickly. Have added 20% PoPs to account for this
and will continue to monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and slightly milder Friday.

- A disturbance brings a chance for widespread rain Saturday
  afternoon and evening. Some wet snow could also mix in later Saturday
  along and north of I-64, but little to no accumulation is
  expected at this time.

Any light snow ends by 7 AM Friday, with dry wx expected the rest of
the day. Temperatures moderate a bit as the trough over the NE CONUS
flattens a bit, allowing upper heights to rise some. However, a weak
backdoor boundary will again keep the cooler temps for those N/NE of
Richmond with highs in the 40s. Milder across southern VA and NE NC
where temps should rise into the 50s. Cold again Friday night with
lows in the 20s N to 30s S. Lows Fri night will likely occur earlier
in the night as clouds increase late ahead of an approaching
southern stream system.

Still not a high confidence forecast for Saturday as uncertainty
continues to exist with respect to the northward extent of precip.
The 00z guidance is slightly more suppressed with the low/less
amplified with the shortwave than yesterday`s 12z guidance was, but
still have fairly high confidence in a period of rain across
southern VA/NE NC from Sat aftn-Sat night, where PoPs are now 60-
90%. The other aspect to monitor will be the potential for a light
accumulation of snow along the northern extent of the precip shield.
The best chance of this would be from the RIC Metro northward
(including the eastern shore), though impacts appear unlikely attm
as sfc temps will likely be just above freezing even if it does
snow. As the previous forecaster mentioned, uncertainty is high
given the marginal thermodynamics and model/ensemble inconsistency.
Ensemble probs for 1" of snow at a 10:1 ratio have decreased to 10%
or less with the most recent 00z runs. Of course, we will continue
to monitor but it does not look like a significant event. Highs for
Saturday currently range from the upper 30s-mid 40s. Any lingering
precip ends from west to east Saturday night. Lows fall into the mid
20s-mid 30s but temps don`t drop to <=32F until after the precip
ends.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sensible and mainly dry early January weather returns from Sunday
  through the middle of next week.

- Highs could reach 60F across parts of the area by the middle of
  next week.

Cool/dry wx prevails on Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds
back into the area. A moderating trend is expected as we head toward
the middle of next week as the high moves offshore, upper heights
start to rise, and the flow aloft flattens out some. Highs only in
the 40s on Sun/Mon, but we could certainly see highs aoa 60F by next
Wednesday. The chance for rain is overall quite low through the
extended period, but a progressive system could bring a chance for
light precip next Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. Mid level
clouds continue across the region but CIGs should stay solidly
VFR. SW winds around 10 kt are expected ahead of an approaching
cold front. That front crosses the terminals between 11-17z.
While it will be mostly dry, there is a 20-30% chance of a
brief period of SHRA or SHSN along the cold front around 12z at
RIC/SBY (highest chc at SBY). Will maintain the PROB30 groups
for RIC and SBY. Winds become NW today behind the front before
becoming light/variable tonight. A weak system could bring a
brief period of -SN at SBY between 03-09z tonight, but PoPs are
only 20% attm.

Outlook: Dry and generally VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through mid-late week. A chance for rain and periodic
flight restrictions returns later Saturday. Dry wx returns
Sunday-Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 523 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this
  afternoon/evening for all waters.

- Benign marine conditions return Friday as high pressure moves
  overhead.

- Another round of Small Crafts are possible late Saturday into
  Monday.

Morning weather analysis shows a weak disturbance moving across
upstate New York into central New England and it`s associated cold
front over Maryland. While to the south high pressure continues
to remain off the coast of Texas. The pressure gradient has
strengthen between these two system over the past couple of
hours allowing winds to increase. Ahead of the cold front winds
continue to remain out of the SW between 15 to 20 kt with gusts
upwards of 25 kt. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through
this afternoon/evening for all waters. Seas have increased due
to the winds and are between 2 to 3 ft across the bay and 3 to 5
ft across the ocean. Through the rest of the morning hours into
the afternoon the cold front will push through the area
allowing for some brief snow showers across the northern waters.
These snow showers could cause reduction in visibility.
Otherwise, winds will shift out of the NW and winds will peak
between 12 to 18z as much drier and colder moves over the
waters. Sustained winds are progged to be between 20 to 25 kt
with gusts nearing 30 kt. There could be some instances of gusts
 of 34 kt or greater along the initial front. These gusts will
not be long enough for any marine headlines and will be handled
with Special Marine Warnings. Seas will also increased with seas
around 3 to 4 ft across the bay and 4 to 6 ft across the ocean.
By late this afternoon and into tonight winds and seas will
begin to diminish as high pressure starts to move back over the
area. Winds will drop of to 5 to 10 kt and seas will be around 1
ft across the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. These benign
marine conditions will continue through Friday and into Saturday
afternoon.

The next chance of elevated marine conditions come late Saturday
into early Monday. Latest guidance continues to show a weak and fast
moving system passing just south of the forecast area. This system
could bring SCA conditions across all our waters. Local wind probs
are showing wide spread 90 to 95% of gusts greater than 18 kt and 70-
90% of gusts greater than 25kt across our coastal waters. Waves will
also increase especially across the southern waters where latest
guidance shows 7 ft seas are possible. Trends in the data will
continue to be monitored.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633-
     638-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...HET