Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

196
FXUS61 KAKQ 021034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
634 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Discussion. No major forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions and below average temperatures prevail through
midweek. Breezy NE winds are expected along the coast today, with
gusts to 35 mph possible.

2) A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the
weekend. Shower/storm chances potentially return late this weekend
or early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and below average temperatures
prevail through midweek. Breezy NE winds are expected along the
coast today, with gusts to 35 mph possible.

The fairly strong early June cold front is well to our south early
this morning, with a positively tilted trough stretching from the
Ohio Valley to the NE CONUS. Low pressure has begun to develop off
the Carolina coast along that cold front. Northeast winds have
become breezy along the coast (w/ gusts to 20-30 mph) as the
gradient between the low offshore and the building high strengthens.

Below average temps and dry conditions are expected today with
breezy NE winds (gusts as high as 35 mph) continuing near the coast
as the upper through axis moves overhead, the low gradually
strengthens as it moves out to sea, and the high moves closer to the
area. Forecast highs are in the lower-mid 70s and likely only in the
upper 60s along the coast due to the cool NE flow. The high will
become centered just to our W/NW tonight, and winds will become
light away from the coast. Radiational cooling conditions will be
near ideal inland with mainly clear skies. As such, lows in the
upper 40s-lower 50s are expected away from the coast where winds
become light or calm. Some of the cooler statistical guidance
continues to suggest temps as low as the mid 40s by early Wednesday
morning. Temps recover a bit on Wednesday, though continue to remain
below average with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s at the coast
to lower 80s inland.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this
week into the weekend. Shower/storm chances potentially return late
this weekend or early next week.

The persistent upper level trough over the eastern US begins to
break down/weaken by Thursday as upper ridging builds over the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic. This will allow a summer pattern (without
the humidity) to take hold with temperatures climbing into the 80s
on Thursday and upper 80s to lower 90s Friday into the weekend.
Moisture will be relatively slow to return for early June with aftn
dew points potentially in the mid 50s-60F through at least Saturday.
Dry wx prevails from Thursday through Saturday with near zero rain
chances. A pattern change may take place from Sunday through early
next week as the ridge breaks down and another upper trough
potentially moves over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold
front is progged to approach late this weekend and may linger near
the area early next week (though the forecast is highly uncertain
from Sunday onward). This would allow shower/storm chances to
finally return. More details to come as we get closer but the
deterministic/ensemble guidance has a wide range of solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail early this morning except for highly
localized MVFR CIGs near ORF (which will last for the next
couple of hours). VFR will prevail through the remainder of the
TAF period with mainly clear skies outside of high clouds.
Breezy conditions continue along the coast today with NE winds
increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt. Winds will
still be breezy inland, but lower with NE winds 10-15 kt and
gusts around 20 kt. Winds become light or calm tonight as high
pressure settles overhead.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions continue through late week.
Gusty onshore winds persist along the coast through mid-week,
however, winds will be strongest on Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Tuesday afternoon
for the lower Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and lower James
River. The SCA for the Currituck Sound is now in effect through late
this evening.

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore coastal
waters into Wednesday. The SCA for the coastal waters south of the
VA/NC border is now in effect through late Wednesday evening.

High pressure from the Canadian plains will translate to the south
over the Great Lakes region today, and eventually moving overheard
the local area by late week. A weak coastal low has formed offshore
along the front that crossed the area yesterday. With the position
of these two features, elevated NE winds will continue for the
majority of the day, gradually decreasing from north to south this
evening. NE winds are currently 15-20 kt in the Chesapeake Bay,
coastal waters, and lower James River (as well as the mouth of the
York River) early this morning. Elevated NE winds will continue
throughout the day with similar wind speeds as currently observed,
although gusts to 30 kt are likely across the coastal waters and at
the mouth of the Ches. Bay after sunrise to early afternoon. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Ches. Bay, lower James
River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters. Have extended in time
the SCA for the Currituck Sound, now until 10 PM, as elevated winds
will linger. Additionally, the SCA for the coastal waters south of
the VA/NC border has been extended until 10 PM Wed as elevated seas
will likely linger.

Seas have increased overnight, now at 5-6 ft with waves 2-4 ft
(highest at the mouth of the Ches. Bay). Waves and seas will
continue building through early afternoon, peaking around 4-6 ft in
the northern coastal waters, 5-8 ft in the southern coastal waters,
and 2-5 ft in the Ches. Bay. Seas will remain elevated in the
southern coastal water through Wednesday.

High pressure will move closer to the area tonight pushing the
coastal low offshore, weakening the winds to 5-10 kt and shifting
out of the NW briefly overnight. Winds will become more variable Wed
and Thurs, but will remain sub-SCA through the end of the week as a
more summer-like pattern takes hold.

There is a High Risk for Rip Currents for all beaches on today. Rip
currents likely remain elevated into Wednesday with at least a
Moderate Rip Current Risk for the northern beaches and a High Rip
Current Risk for the southern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     634-639-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...KMC