Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

744
FXUS61 KAKQ 020531
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1231 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly milder weather returns for Friday ahead of a low
pressure system that will pass south of the area. Widespread
rain is likely for southern Virginia and northeast North
Carolina later Saturday with some wet snow possible north of
Richmond. Dry and seasonably cool weather returns Sunday and
Monday, followed by a warming trend Tuesday through most of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 640 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A weak system may bring a very light accumulation of snow to
  the MD Eastern Shore late tonight into early Friday morning.
  With temperatures in the 20s, snow could quickly stick to area
  roadways if it does occur. However, confidence in the snow
  remains low at this time.

A quick-moving mid-level shortwave slides through in the NW
flow aloft tonight. The main impact from this disturbance will
be increased mid-level cloud cover, especially for northern
portions of our forecast area. However, there could be just
enough ascent and mid-level moisture for a brief period of
flurries or light snow on the MD Eastern Shore in the 2-6 AM
timeframe. Have kept the 20% chance for snow from the previous
forecasts, but have confined this mention to Dorchester,
Wicomico, and Worcester counties in MD. A light coating of snow
is possible (including on roads) given sfc temps below freezing,
but don`t expect any major impacts at this time. Temps likely
fall fast this evening into the 20s before leveling off some
late tonight given the increased cloud cover. A few locations on
the MD Eastern Shore and rural portions of the NW Piedmont
could dip into the upper teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and slightly milder Friday.

- A disturbance brings a chance for widespread rain Saturday
  afternoon and evening. Some wet snow could also mix in later
  Saturday along and north of I-64, but little to no
  accumulation is expected at this time.

Any light snow ends by 7 AM Friday, with dry wx expected the rest of
the day. Temperatures moderate a bit as the trough over the NE CONUS
flattens a bit, allowing upper heights to rise some. However, a weak
backdoor boundary will again keep the cooler temps for those those
on the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore with temps stuck in the low-
mid 40s. Milder across southern VA and NE NC where temps should rise
into the 50s. Cold again Friday night with lows in the 20s N to 30s
S. Lows Fri night will likely occur earlier in the night as clouds
increase late ahead of an approaching southern stream system.

The Saturday forecast remains of lower confidence. A wave of low
pressure is expected to ride ENE through the Deep South and
Carolinas along a remnant frontal boundary, with widespread
rain likely for southern VA and NE NC Saturday afternoon and
evening. The northern extent of the precip field (which can be
traced to trough amplification) is where model guidance begins
to diverge. The 12z global model guidance (and their ensembles)
are a bit less suppressed than the 00z runs. However, most of
the higher-res guidance (NAM/RAP/HRRR) confines precip to far
srn VA and NC. All in all, continue to monitor for some wintry
precip (likely as a rain/snow mix) on the northern edge of the
precip field. The best chance of this would be from the RIC
Metro northward (including the eastern shore), though impacts
appear unlikely attm as sfc temps will likely be just above
freezing even if it does snow. As alluded to before, uncertainty
is high given the marginal thermodynamics and model/ensemble
inconsistency. Ensemble probs from the EPS for 1" of snow at a
10:1 ratio have again increased to 20-30%. However, the 12z GEFS
now does have a sliver of 10-20% probs from Louisa/Fluvanna
through the Northern Neck. We will continue to monitor but it
does not look like a significant event. Highs for Saturday
currently range from the upper 30s-mid 40s, but could be lower
if there is widespread clouds and precip. Any lingering precip
ends from west to east Saturday night. Lows fall into the mid
20s-mid 30s but temps don`t get too cold until after the precip
ends.

High pressure and mostly sunny/dry/seasonable conditions return for
Sunday with highs in the 40s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Sensible and mainly dry early January weather returns early
  next week. A warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through
  most of the week.

Cool/dry wx prevails on Monday with highs again in the 40s. A
moderating trend is expected as we head toward the middle of next
week as the high moves offshore, upper heights start to rise, and
the flow aloft flattens out some. Highs quickly moderate into the
50s Tuesday and we could potentially see highs aoa 60F by next
Wednesday. The chance for rain is overall quite low through the
extended period, but a progressive system could bring a chance for
light precip next Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. Winds are
light/variable tonight with increasing mid-level clouds for RIC
and SBY overnight. There could also be a brief period of
-SN at SBY between 06-11z tonight/Fri morning, but PoPs remain
 ~20%. Not confident enough for even a PROB30 at this time. VFR
 conditions will prevail Friday with skies remaining partly
 cloudy with some mid to high level clouds moving through the
 area. Winds will increase out of the NW but will remain light
 between 5 to 10 kt.

Outlook: A chance for rain and periodic flight restrictions
returns later Saturday, especially S. Dry wx returns Sunday-
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- More benign marine conditions return late tonight through Saturday
as high pressure builds over the local waters.

- A weak frontal boundary returns north as a warm front late tonight
and Friday, then pushes back south of the region over the weekend.

- Another round of Small Crafts are possible late Saturday into
Monday.

Latest weather analysis shows weak low pressure sliding across the
Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada. The associated cold front
pushed through the region earlier this afternoon and is just south
of the local area as of this writing. With the gradient quickly
slackening and with minimal CAA post-frontal, the Small Craft
Advisories the were in effect have been allowed to expire on time.
The SCA for the coastal waters north of Chincoteague remains in
effect into this evening, with numerous reports of gusts to ~25 kt
nearshore over the northern waters. Otherwise, winds and seas
gradually diminish late this afternoon and tonight, as high pressure
starts to rebuild over the area. Winds will drop of to 5 to 10 kt
and seas will be around 1 ft across the bay and 2-3 ft across the
ocean. These benign marine conditions will continue through Friday
and into Saturday afternoon.

The previously referenced front lifts back north across the central
and southern waters late tonight and Friday, in response to a
developing southern stream system. This will veer winds from SSE to
W-SW late tonight and Friday <10-12 kt. A few snow showers will be
possible far northern waters, as a weak clipper low tracks quickly
east along the retreating boundary from central VA over to the
Delmarva Friday morning. Winds become NNW all zones tomorrow
afternoon and evening ~10 kt, as the front gets shunted back south
of the local waters Friday evening into Saturday afternoon.

The next chance of elevated marine conditions come late Saturday
into early Monday. Latest guidance continues to show another weak
and fast moving southern stream system developing along the boundary
to the south, passing along/offshore of the Carolina coast Saturday
night into early Sunday. This system could bring SCA conditions
across our central and southern, likely more brief and marginal the
farther north you go. Local wind probs have diminished substantially
over the northern half of our waters, including much of the bay and
northern waters. With the 12z/1 cycle, there is no higher than a 20%
probability of winds => 18kt in the middle and upper bay and 30% or
less of gusts greater than 25kt across our coastal waters north of
Cape Charles. Better chances for SCA in the mouth of the Bay, the
Currituck Sound and the Atlantic coastal waters south of Cape
Charles. Seas increase across the southern waters in building E-SE
wind waves, with 5-7 ft seas are possible Sunday into Sunday
evening. Winds back to the NNW Sun night and Monday, as high
pressure builds to the NW, then slides offshore Mon night into
Tuesday. This will veer winds around to the SSW late Monday
through midweek aob 15 kt, with improving boating conditions for
the middle of next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...RHR/SW
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...HET/RHR
MARINE...MAM