Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

742
FXUS61 KAKQ 171052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
652 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All discussion sections updated for the overnight forecast
package.

The Slight Severe Risk for Thurs has been expanded south to the
VA/NC border.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Storm chances increase Thursday evening,
continuing overnight and potentially into Friday. Strong to severe
storms possible Thurs evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....Storm chances increase Thursday evening,
continuing overnight and potentially into Friday. Strong to severe
storms possible Thurs evening.

A warm front will lift north of the area today. As such, temps will
be a bit warmer than yesterday with highs in the low 90s. Otherwise,
a pretty decent day today with mostly sunny skies and a light
breeze. Heating up more tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 90s
and heat indices mostly around 100 but up to 104 in the southeast.
SW flow also increases as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a
cold front, leading to breezy conditions with gusts of 25-30mph for
most of the day tomorrow.

Storm chances increase during the late afternoon and evening hours
Thursday, though there`s still some uncertainty in what kind of
coverage we will get out of this system. Thursday evening/night has
trended drier with more sparse coverage in the GFS, Canadian, and
NAM with only the ECMWF keeping the higher coverage. Current
thinking is that there will be at least widely scattered storms
Thurs night, particularly across western and central portions of the
FA. There is the potential for some of these storms to be strong to
severe, but the window for this will be kind of narrow
(7-10ish). With hot, humid conditions during the day,
instability likely builds to the 1200-2000 J/kg range. But with
the timing of storms likely later in the evening, storms will
have to work with waning instability that could be under 1000
J/kg by 10pm (based on the LREF mean). Shear should be decent
enough to support a few stronger storms, though nothing
substantial (maybe 30-35kt). Main threat from these storms would
be severe wind gusts as evidenced by nearly 1000 J/kg of DCAPE
that the guidance depicts. The SPC has designated a Slight risk
for all of our VA and MD counties with a Marginal in NC.

There`s still a fairly wide range of solutions from the models about
what will happen Friday. The ECWMF is holding onto its solution of
redeveloping tropical remnants from the gulf into an area of low
pressure that tracks across NC and out to sea. This would mean the
potential for moderate to heavy rainfall during the day Friday
particularly across the south. The Canadian also has this sfc low,
but a bit weaker, a bit faster, and with a bit less moisture. It
mostly limits the rain to SE portions of the area. The GFS is much
drier for Friday as it never develops the sfc low and it pushes
Thursday`s front and the associated moisture south of the area.
Regardless, rain should be pushing out of the area by Friday
evening. Dry conditions and near-average temperatures then prevail
for the weekend. Unsettled conditions potentially return early next
week with the approach of another cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/17 TAF period. Overcast
skies gradually clear out early this morning as a warm front
lifts north of the area. Light winds mostly out of the SW (some
variation in direction at ORF), then turning SE at 5-10kt this
evening.

Outlook: Showers/storms possible Thu evening into early Fri
with lingering showers and embedded storms into Fri afternoon.
Drier conditions/VFR conditions return late Fri into the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions today.

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of the waters
  later tonight into Thursday night due to increasing SW winds
  and seas ahead of a strong low pressure system.

- Gale conditions are possible for the far offshore waters off
  the NC coast. A Gale Watch has been issued for late Thursday
  afternoon into Thursday night.

Early this morning, a warm front is draped over the far southern
waters. This front will continue to lift north across the entire
area as we head through the morning hours. Winds are primarily out
of the SE, averaging 5 to 10 knots. Seas average 2 to 3 feet and
waves in the Chesapeake Bay average 1 to 2 feet.

Benign/sub-SCA conditions are expected throughout the daytime hours
today with a S to SE wind averaging 5 to 15 knots (highest in the
afternoon/evening). The gradient tightens tonight into early
Thursday ahead of the next front, with winds become SW and
increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Winds increase further after sunrise
Thursday through much of the day, especially along the immediate
coast where we will see the best mixing. Winds may gust up to 30
knots by Thursday afternoon along the coast. Small Craft Advisories
are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River beginning
tonight and for the remainder of the waters beginning Thursday
morning. For the far offshore waters, especially the waters south of
the VA/NC border, gusts to 35+ knots will be possible during the
late Thursday afternoon timeframe into Thursday night. The highest
gusts will be confined to the southeastern portion of the NC
offshore zone, with local wind probs showing a ~50% chance for gale
gusts across this location. As a result, a Gale Watch has been
issued for this zone. We will also need to watch the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday evening into Thursday night
which may bring local wind gusts of 40+ knots. During the Thursday-
Thursday night timeframe, seas build to 4 to 6 feet nearshore and 5
to 8+ feet offshore. The cold front drops across the local waters on
Friday with winds shifting to the N/NW behind the front (sub-SCA).
Winds diminish Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds into the
area. Winds and seas may increase again Sunday night into early
next week as another system approaches the region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ639.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for ANZ688.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB