Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

822
FXUS61 KAKQ 262007
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
307 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All Winter Weather Advisories have been cancelled. However,
roads, especially secondary roads, remain hazardous to travel
due to snow/sleet coverage and temperatures struggling to rise
above 32 degrees. Probabilities for accumulating snow have
increased for next weekend. Confidence in track and timing of
this storm remains low.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A prolonged period of very cold temperatures is expected to
persist through much of the week with the potential for
temperatures to remain below freezing for several days over most
of the area. Impacts from the winter storm, especially for
areas that received snow/sleet accumulation are likely to last
well into the week due to the very cold temperatures. A Cold
Weather Advisory is in effect from 9 PM this evening through 10
AM Tuesday for wind chill values from -5F to +5F NW to 0F to 10F
SE.

2) A weak clipper and arctic cold front will move across the
area Wednesday Night and early Thursday morning potentially
bringing light snow to the northern portions of the area. This
will bring additional cold air to the region late this week.

3) Uncertainty remains high with regard to the evolution of low
pressure developing off of the southeast coast this coming
weekend. However, probabilities for accumulating snow have
increased amongst the ensemble model guidance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures remain cold this afternoon ranging
from the upper 20s to mid 30s. The surge of drier air with a
secondary cold front is arriving from the NW this afternoon with
dewpoints dropping into the teens to the lee of the Blue Ridge
and the single digits in the Shenandoah Valley. Some flurries
are possible along and in advance of the secondary cold front as
it moves NW-SE across the area through the afternoon and early
evening hours. Otherwise, lingering impacts from snow/sleet
accumulation will persist due to cold conditions. Low
temperatures tonight from the NBM range from the lower single
digits NW to mid/upper teens SE. Of note, statistical MOS
guidance is not quite as cold over the Piedmont as it keeps the
airmass more mixed due to some light wind. Regardless, wind
chills (or ambient temperatures) should drop to
-5 to +5F NW, with 0-10F wind chills SE. Cold Weather
Advisories remain in effect for the entire area from 9 PM this
evening to 10 AM Tuesday morning. Surface high pressure builds
across the Southeast CONUS Tuesday. Forecast highs are only
expected to reach the upper 20s to lower 30s (mid 30s possible
SE). A WSW wind of 10-15 mph is expected, with occasional gusts
up to 20 mph. This will result in wind chills in the upper teens
to mid 20s during the afternoon hours. There is a weak/dry cold
front that slides across the area Tuesday night. NBM has lows
ranging from the single digits NW to the upper teens/around 20F
SE. Once again, the statistical MOS guidance is not quite as
cold for the Piedmont, but a little more mixing and wind would
result in colder wind chills. Additional cold weather headlines
are possible. Remaining cold Wednesday with similar high
temperatures to Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak clipper system and arctic cold front
cross the area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning,
bringing another surge of arctic air to the region. Some light
snow showers or flurries are possible with the arctic front
(mainly N/NE), but the overall trend has been for a drier
solution. 2m temperature anomalies from the 26/12z EPS/GEFS are
generally 20-30F below average (15-20F below average far SE) for
Thursday and Friday. This will result in temperatures during
the day remaining in the 20s for much of the area with only
lower 30s in far SE VA and NE NC. Overnight/early morning low
temperatures Thursday/Friday AM range from the single digits for
most of the area, with lower/mid teens SE. A few below zero
ambient lows are possible in the Piedmont. Additional cold
weather headlines are likely. Wind chills will struggle to rise
above the mid teens to mid 20s during the day Thursday and
Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The 26/12z runs of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC and
respective ensembles are more bullish on development of low
pressure off the southeast coast this weekend in response to a
digging upper trough over the Great Lakes and strong surface
high pressure diving southward over the plains. There is still a
great amount of uncertainity of whether the system remains well
offshore limiting impacts, or tries to hug closer to the coast.
There is also some timing differences whether it is a later
Friday night to Saturday timeframe (ECMWF/CMC) or Saturday
night/Sunday timing (GFS) Any system is still at least 4.5 to 6
days out and model run to run variability will continue for the
next few days. This is why it is more important to focus on
probabilities rather than individual model runs. The general
consensus amongst the EPS/GEFS/GEPS 26/12z ensemble systems has
increased the chc of accumulating snow for the weekend.
Probabilities for >1" of snow are generally 50-80% (highest SE),
> 3" are 30-40% NW to 50-60% SE with the EPS a midpoint between
the higher GEPS and slightly lower GEFS. For >6" probs, the EPS
has 40-50% from SE VA/NE NC up the Eastern Shore. Again, the
GEFS is lower and the GEPS is higher. Ensemble systems do have a
tendency to cluster, so expect some variations in probabilities
as well. Temperatures remain cold and well below average
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Monday...

Conditions are gradually improving as of 18z as a cold front is
now well offshore. There are some lingering MVFR cigs along the
coast and some patchy MVFR cigs in vicinity of RIC. The wind is
N to NW 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt. VFR conditions should
prevail at most sites by 20-21z as drier air arrives from the
NW, with MVFR lingering at ECG through 22-23z. The wind could
increase slightly as well through the aftn as the drier air
arrives. VFR with a clearing sky tonight. A NW wind of 8-12kt
will occasionally gust to 15-20kt through 06-08z, before become
W 5-10kt late. Sunny and VFR Tuesday with a SW wind of 10-15kt
gusting to 20kt.

VFR conditions continue through the middle of the week. There
is a low- end chance of light snow Wednesday night- Thursday AM
especially at SBY. Another low pressure system may impact the
region by Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings are in effect for the Ocean north of the NC
  border as well as the Chesapeake Bay late Monday afternoon
  through early Tuesday with NW winds. Small Craft Advisories
  are in effect in all remaining coastal waters.

- A Freezing Spray Advisory is in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
  and VA coastal waters.

- Yet another period of high-end Small Craft Advisory to gale
  conditions is possible Thursday night into early Friday.

The low pressure system that impacted the region over the past
few days has lifted northeast off the New England coast and
deepened to ~999mb this afternoon. Meanwhile, a 1040mb high has
settled across the southern Plains. The morning started with
increasing gradient winds, followed by the arrival of some CAA
in the wake of a cold front that moved across the area late last
night into early this morning. Current marine observations show
sustained winds of 20-25 kts on the eastern side of the Bay and
the coastal waters, while the western by still remains below
SCA criteria. Waves remain between 1- 3 ft (3 to 4 ft at the
mouth of the Bay), while seas are 5-6 ft. Gale Warnings remain
in effect for all VA coastal waters, as well as the Chesapeake
Bay. All other coastal waters will be covered by a SCA. In
addition to the Gale Warning, a Freezing Spray Advisory is in
effect this evening through tomorrow morning for the Bay and VA
coastal waters.

A period of low-end SCA conditions is possible later Tuesday
afternoon and evening, followed by a lull in winds on Wednesday.
Otherwise, the next period of attention is Thursday night into
early Friday due to CAA behind another strong cold front.
Periods of freezing spray are likely Monday night through much
of the week as an arctic airmass overspreads the region,
followed by another push of arctic air later in the week behind
the aforementioned cold front. By the weekend, there is a chance
for another storm system to approach the area that may bring
degraded marine conditions, so we will continue to monitor any
trends in the development and evolution of this system over the
next few forecast cycles.

Despite the higher winds expected again tonight, they will be
from the northwest so seas will struggle to build any higher
than 7 ft. Waves are forecast to rapidly build later this
afternoon and into tonight, especially on the eastern side of
the Bay, to 2-5 ft. For both the coastal waters and Bay, seas
should subside to sub-SCA Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
morning, though the coastal waters out near 20nm offshore could
see some 5ft waves creep in on Tuesday night. Thereafter, seas
will start to build again in the wake of another front,
potentially building further over the following days if the
weekend system pans out.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for MDZ021>025.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
     095>100-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ635>638.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...NB