Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

719
FXUS61 KAKQ 281056
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
656 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SPS for Fog has been issued through 9am for southern and interior southeast Virginia
and interior NE North Carolina.

Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the nearshore NC
coastal waters through this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Slightly cooler today then above normal temperatures return
Thursday through Friday. Uncertainty remains for the potential
for rain this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Slightly cooler today then above normal temperatures return
Thursday through Friday. Uncertainty remains for the potential
for rain this weekend.

Early morning weather analysis weak upper level ridge over west-
central Gulf coast to the Great Lakes and an upper trough over the
NW CONUS. At the surface, a 1034mb high pressure sits over New
England . The pressure gradient over the area remains weak allowing
for weak onshore flow. Temperatures and dew points are much higher
than the previous due to the onshore flow and are ranging between
the upper 40s to low 50s. In addition, due to clear skies, higher
dews, and light winds low stratus and patchy fog has developed
across SE VA and NE NC. Through the rest of the morning the stratus
and patchy fog will develop across the piedmont possibly causing
reduced visibilities. An SPS has been issued at this time due
to visibilities dropping below a mile across southern and
interior southeast Virginia and interior NE North Carolina.
However, if conditions worsen across the area through the early
morning the SPS maybe expanded or Dense Fog may potentially be
issued.


For today, the low stratus is expected to hang on across the piedmont
as a CAD builds across the area. This will likely cause temperatures
to struggle to get out of the middle to upper 60s as the SE the
cloud cover is expected to break early allowing for temps to warm
near 70. If the could deck across the piedmont breaks early a run
near the 70s cannot be ruled out in the piedmont. However, the
confidence is low as the NAM (handles CAD well) is holding onto
much low temps. The high will then eventually anchor off the
southern New England to Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Thursday
while low pressure remains suppressed well south near the Bahamas.
With the high pressure offshore, SSW will allow for highs to
potentially reach the the middle to upper 70s Thursday and Friday.

Dry weather conditions are forecasted to prevail through the late
weekend, as upper ridging builds over the region. By Friday and into
the weekend, a northern stream shortwave traversing central Canada
will flatten the upper pattern. Halloween continues to look dry
pleasant, and mild with increasing clouds ahead of of a weak cold
front allowing for optimal Trick-or-Treating conditions across the
region. Looking Monday into early next week the potential for the
pattern to become slightly unsettled continues to remain low. The
latest 00z/28 ensembles continue to hint on a weak system moving
across the area during the first couple days of November. However,
at this time the ensembles continue to remain in  disagreement on
amounts of precipitation and or if there will be any precip. The
GEFS and Canadian ensembles have roughly 30-50% of rainfall greater
than .1" while the GFS-AI, EURO-AI, and the EURO has little to no
rain chances. With the disagreement this is continuing to lead to
low confidence in any beneficial rainfall at the start of November
and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 636 AM EDT Wednesday...

A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions have been noted across all
terminals early this morning. Low stratus and patchy fog has
developed primarily across VA and NC. These conditions are
forecasted to persist through the early morning hours and
possibly last a couple hours after 12z. By late morning the
patchy fog is likely to dissipate and the CIGS will increase.
However, cloud cover will likely persist but will cloud bases
will be VFR as the day progresses. Winds today will then
increase out of the NE by late morning and be around 5-10kt.

Outlook: Other than some potential for patchy AM fog, dry WX
and VFR conditions returns each morning through Sunday.
Remaining dry through most of the weekend, though some light
rain will be possible later Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 530 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-  Onshore flow remains elevated today, have raised SCAs for NC
   coastal waters for 5 ft seas.

- Light winds prevail tonight through Friday. A cold front
  brings the potential for Small Craft Advisories Friday night
  through Saturday.

Strong high pressure centered along the New England coast will
gradually drift to the SE and become anchored off the northern
md-Atlantic coast tonight and Thursday. Onshore flow, averaging
10-15 kt prevails early this morning, with seas around 3 ft
across the northern coastal waters, and ~4 ft to the south. The
buoys in the 0-20 NM offshore NC waters are ~5 ft and may
increase further later today as E-NE swell in association with
low pressure over FL and the Bahamas continues. Have issued
SCAs in NC through 7 PM (and this may persist through tonight
and need to be extended).

Otherwise, winds will slowly diminish by tonight, and
especially Thursday through Friday as the sfc high continues to
weaken and become centered into the region. Low pressure lifts
NE off the coast of Florida Thursday night into Friday, keeping
seas at 3-4 ft for the southern ocean zones despite light winds.
It will be benign across the Bay and rivers with winds 5-10 kt
or less Thursday and Friday. However, by late Friday night into
Saturday morning, the next cold front is forecast to drop south
through the local waters. The airmass is not particularly cold,
but pressure rises are on the order 4-5 mb/6 hr as strong (>1030
mb) sfc high pressure builds SE from the Great Lakes. Probs for
18 kt sustained winds have increased and anticipate that these
may go up more as the addition of the high res guidance arrives
over the next few cycles. Have increased the N-NE winds during
this time, and expect SCAs may be needed for at least the lower Bay
and southern coastal waters late Fri night into Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...LKB