Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

239
FXUS61 KAKQ 221850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
250 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms continue across early this morning from the
Middle Peninsula over to the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Flash flooding is
likely to continue over portions of the Eastern Shore this morning.

2) The threat of severe thunderstorms will continue today and the
potential for torrential rainfall to produce scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding will increase later today into
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms continue across early this
morning from the Middle Peninsula over to the VA/MD Eastern Shore.
Flash flooding is likely to continue over portions of the Eastern
Shore this morning.

Early this morning, a slow moving cold front is located NW of the
local area. Moisture continues to pool ahead of this front, with PWs
over the local area ranging from 2.0 to 2.4" this morning. Very
heavy rainfall continues across portions of the Middle Peninsula and
over to the VA/MD Eastern Shore. A swath of 2-4"+ has fallen across
the southern MD Eastern Shore into the the VA Eastern Shore with
numerous Flash Flood Warnings remaining in effect at this hour.
Shower and storms will gradually spread south and reinvigorate later
this morning into this afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 2...The threat of severe thunderstorms will continue
today and the potential for torrential rainfall to produce scattered
to numerous instances of flash flooding will increase later today
into Thursday.

The severe threat likely continues today, but with the higher
probabilities shifted to the south and east compared to what we saw
yesterday, ahead of the aforementioned southward-moving cold front.
The flow aloft today is forecast to remain rather strong (40-50kt at
500mb). SPC has the Slight Risk outlined for our entire CWA (lvl
2/5). Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with any
stronger storms, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely
ruled out.

Attention then turns to the heavy rain/significant flash flooding
threat. Despite the ongoing drought conditions, today into tonight
is showing an increasingly confident signal for flash flooding,
especially in urban and poor drainage areas. WPC has introduced a
Moderate Risk ERO for today across much of Hampton Roads down into
northern portions of NC. Much of the remainder of the area is in a
Slight Risk ERO today. Decent flow aloft should keep individual
cells moving but training storms on top of the rainfall received
yesterday and overnight early this morning will likely cause
scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding. The axis of
heavier showers and storms shifts further to the SE on Thursday as
the slow moving front gradually sinks south. WPC has a Day 2
Moderate ERO across northeast NC up to roughly the VA border and a
Slight ERO across southeast VA. A Flood Watch has been introduced
for SE VA and NE NC based on the latest data. The Flood Watch
currently across the remainder of the area will likely need to be
extended into Thursday for portions of the watch area. All total,
the QPF forecast through Thursday has generally 3-6", with locally
higher amounts across southside Hampton Roads into northeast North
Carolina.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Still mainly VFR conditions to start the 18Z TAFs, though an are
of showers and embedded tstms has developed across south central
VA and will spread east through the late aftn. Isolated/scattered
showers/storms are developing across northern VA and will drop
south into the evening in advance of an approaching cold front.
Overall, TAFs reflect an increasing coverage of showers/storms,
a few of which could become strong to severe with localized
wind gusts of 40-50kt+ late this aftn and evening. The thunderstorm
threat transitions to a heavy rain threat later this evening
and overnight into Thu AM, with heavy rain likely potentially
lingering across SE VA/NE NC into midday Thursday. CIGs will
also lower to MVFR (and potentially IFR) tonight. Winds outside
of convection will gust to 15-20 kts from the SW for a majority
of the period, winds shift to the NNW as early as 04Z across
the north, but not until 10-14Z over SE VA/NE NC, becoming NE
all areas by Thu aftn.

Outlook: Generally drying out late Thursday, but a few additional
SHRA and flight restrictions may linger at ORF/ECG into Fri AM.
Mainly dry/VFR Friday-Saturday with a low chance for showers
across the SE terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the local waters through
  this afternoon.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible again today and Thursday with
  gusty winds and reduced visibility from heavy rain likely.

A slow moving cold front crosses the area late tonight/early
Thursday. Ahead of the front, SW winds peaked this morning, but
remain elevated with current obs showing 10-15 kt with gusts to 25
kt across local waters. Seas are 3-5 ft across nearshore coastal
waters (5-7 ft offshore) and 1-3 ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Winds
will continue to diminish this afternoon and evening, but due to the
gradual decline, Small Craft Advisories have been extended now
through 4 PM for the Ches. Bay, tidal rivers, and Currituck Sound as
frequent gusts above 20 kt are present. The SCA for the coastal
waters remains in effect through 6 PM as 5 ft seas will linger
behind falling winds. The cold front will cross the waters late
tonight/early Thursday resulting in a brief northerly surge across
the Ches. Bay around 2-8 AM Thursday with gusts around 20 kt. Local
wind probs show a 30-50% chance of sustained 18 kt winds and a 70-
90% chance of gusts to 18 kt. A subsequent SCA is likely for the
Ches. Bay following the expiration of the current advisory. Lighter
NE winds are likely Thursday afternoon and into the weekend with 2-
3 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected from this afternoon
through Thursday. Some storms may be severe with strong, erratic
winds and heavy rainfall capable of reducing visibility.

A Moderate Risk for Rip Currents is in effect across all local
beaches today through Friday from increased swell and onshore flow
on Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ022>025.
NC...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-
     102.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ048-060>062-068-
     069-076>078-082-083-085-509>520-522.
     Flood Watch through Thursday evening for VAZ097-098-529>531.
     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for VAZ065>067-079>081-
     084-086>090-092-099-100-523>525-528.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/AJZ
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...KMC