Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

909
FXUS61 KAKQ 121051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
551 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of clipper systems today and again at the end of the
weekend will bring some additional light wintry precipitation to
the region, with some accumulating snow possible Sunday. Behind
the late weekend system, Arctic air moves in Sunday night, and
provides a cold start to next week. The very cold temperatures
do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the
middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- A clipper system brings a chance for a dusting of snow for
  western counties. Otherwise, cloudy and chilly with highs in
  the upper 30s and low 40s.

Sfc high pressure is still over the local area early this morning
with a clipper system moving into the Appalachian region. Aloft, a
broad trough sits over the eastern half of the CONUS with low
pressure near Nova Scotia. Latest obs indicate that temps have
dropped into the mid to upper 20s for most spots, low 30s closer to
the coast. With high level cloud cover moving in ahead of the
approaching low, temps will likely stabilize until sunrise.

There is high confidence in the track of the clipper low with
guidance indicating that it will dive SE and skirt along the
southern border of the FA as weak shortwave energy passes over
aloft. The 00z suite of high-res guidance consistently trended drier
and kept the majority of precip west of the FA. PoPs and QPF were
subsequently decreased in light of this. Timing is more or less the
same with light precip entering western portions of the area early
this morning with chances persisting through mid afternoon. Precip
likely stays south of I-64 and W of I-95 this morning with highest
PoPs (up to 30%) in the far SW. Then forecasting slight chance for
the piedmont this afternoon. Primary precip mode looks to be snow,
but with marginal temps and low QPF, not anticipating much in the
way of accumulations. HREF probs for even >0.1" are sub-50% and 1"
probs are sub-20% for the southern piedmont. Highs today will be in
the mid to upper 30s in the west and across the north, low 40s in
the SE. Dry conditions expected tonight with lows in the mid to
upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- An Arctic cold front crosses into the region Sunday, ushering
  in a much colder airmass Sunday night and Monday. Some snow is
  possible with the Arctic frontal passage, especially from the
  Neck to the Eastern Shore.

Sat will be dry and relatively mild with highs in the upper 40s to
mid 50s. Lows Sat night will generally be in the low 30s with upper
20s across the far north.

Attention then turns to a strong cold front set to cross the FA on
Sunday. Snow potentially develops across the northern tier of the
area late Saturday night and continues through midday Sunday.
Farther SE, as of now, looks to be more of a situation where cold
air is chasing moisture, which points toward a situation of rain
ending as a brief period of snow for Hampton Roads and NE NC. 00z
Ensemble probs are decently aligned with the GEFS bringing its >1"
probs a touch further south than the ECMWF. The ECMWF shows 40-60%
across the far north, while the GEFS shows up to 70% for the same
area. Forecast snow accumulation is in line with these with 1-1.5"
in Dorchester MD, 0.5-1" for the Northern Neck and the rest of the
MD Eastern Shore, and <0.5" nearly down to the US-460 corridor. Main
accumulation period based on current timing would be between 12-18z
on Sunday. Precip/the front then exits offshore Sun afternoon,
possibly putting down a dusting of snow at the coast. Highs will
range from the mid 30s across the N to the mid 40s in the SE. Temps
drop quickly behind the front Sunday afternoon/evening. Northwest
winds become rather gusty behind the front as well, leading to wind
chills as low as the teens by mid evening. Gusts of 30-35mph
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM EST Friday...

- Cold early next week with moderating temperatures through the
  middle of next week.

Blustery conditions are forecast for Sunday night into Monday as an
Arctic airmass moves into the region behind the cold front. While
winds look to diminish slightly Sunday night, gusts of 20-30mph will
still be possible. Temps drop quickly Sunday night as strong CAA
ensues. Many locations could see temps in the teens early in the
night, dropping into the mid-teens (potentially colder) by sunrise.
Even immediately near the coast, forecast lows are only around 20F.
Wind chills will be in the single digits for the entire area. A Cold
Weather Advisory will likely be needed for most, if not all, of the
area.

Frigid air sticks around Monday with highs only in the low to mid
30s. The good news is that winds will be much lighter and wind
chills are "only" in the upper 20s. The rest of the week will follow
a warming trend once sfc high pressure is suppressed to the SE and
the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Forecast highs are in the 40s on
Tues, around 50 for Wed, and around 60 on Thursday. Overnight lows
will still be rather chilly with low in the 20s Mon and Tues night,
30s Wed night, then a little milder Thurs night in the low 40s.
Mostly dry weather is expected through mid-week, then a potential
front brings precip chances late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 550 AM EST Friday...

VFR prevails for the 12z/12 TAF period. High level BKN cloud
cover has spread across the forecast area as a weak clipper
system approaches the region. BKN-OVC skies continue through
the period as the weak low slides by just to the S. Clouds will
thicken, but anticipating that sub-VFR CIGs will stay well west
of the terminals. The 00z suite of high-res models has trended
much drier with this system, thus decreasing confidence in RIC
(or any terminal) seeing snow. As such, took a lot of the snow
out of the TAF for RIC, but did leave the Prob30 group for the
chance of flurries during the afternoon. Winds will be light and
variable through the period.

Outlook: A strong cold front crosses the region late Sat night
into early Sun. This could bring a period of a rain/snow mix
followed by all snow late Sat night through midday Sun. Turning
much colder with gusty NNW winds Sun afternoon. VFR conditions
return Sun night through Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected today into Saturday with
high pressure in control.

- Confidence increases for Gale force winds Sunday into Sunday
night in the wake of a strong, Arctic, cold front.

Early this morning, low pressure remains situated over northeast
Canada. Meanwhile, ~1020 mb high pressure is located along the
eastern Gulf coast. Wind remain slightly elevated this morning due
to the pressure gradient between the two systems, with NW winds
running around 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots.
Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet and waves in the bay 1 to 2
feet. High pressure builds over the waters later this morning,
lingering through Saturday, allowing for generally benign marine
conditions with winds averaging 5 to 10 knots.

A strong cold front approaches and crosses the waters late Saturday
night into early Sunday. A very cold/dry airmass builds in behind
the front, which will cause strong mixing to occur over the
(relatively) warmer waters. Winds rapidly become NW and increase
Sunday morning in the wake of the front. Local wind probs show 90%+
chances for wind gusts >= 34 knots Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night over the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay. There is high
confidence in Gale force winds over a majority of the waters. NW
winds will average 25 to 30 knots with locally higher sustained
winds and gusts upwards of 35 to 40 knots (possibly 45 knots coastal
waters). Gale Watches will likely be needed later today or tonight
due to the high confidence. Seas will also increase, building to as
high as 8 to 10 feet over the coastal waters and 5 to 6 feet in the
Chesapeake Bay by Sunday night.

Winds gradually diminish later Sunday night into Monday, though SCAs
will likely be needed for much of Monday due to seas remaining at 5+
feet. Calmer conditions are then anticipated Monday night into the
middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the
area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB