Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

293
FXUS61 KAKQ 201757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
157 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A stalled frontal boundary will produce showers and a few
thunderstorms over southern Virginia and northeast North
Carolina today. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.


2) Periods of unsettled weather are expected through Wednesday.
Temperatures will trend below normal by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A stalled frontal boundary will produce showers and
a few thunderstorms over southern Virginia and northeast North
Carolina today. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

As of 1015Z, a frontal boundary is stalled across far southern
VA with some isolated showers ongoing over SE VA and NE NC. A
swath of 1-2" of rain occurred between 07z-9z from southern
Southampton County through southern Chesapeake and VA Beach.
This activity has since dissipated. The aforementioned boundary
will remain fairly stationary through the day today, before
lifting back north as a warm from by this evening and
tonight/early Tues AM. This feature will be the focus for
additional showers and isolated strong tstm development again
today, primarily this afternoon/evening, There is a low end SVR
threat today, mainly for isold damaging wind gusts over NE NC,
and also a SLGT ERO for all of NE NC and a marginal ERO across
southern VA for a few instances of flash flooding due to heavy
rainfall potential. Dew points will be highest across southern
areas today (mid-70s) with PWATs in excess of 2", hence the
MRGL/SLGT ERO. Highs today will be in the mid 80s with the some
low 80s along the immediate coast. As the warm front lifts north
tonight, we`ll see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Lows tonight in
the upr 60s to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Periods of unsettled weather are expected
through Wednesday. Temperatures will trend below normal by
Thursday and Friday.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the severe threat looks to be
increasing as a much stronger trough will start to move out of
the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic. Tuesday looks to be the
best SVR day as shear looks to be the strongest and multiple
shortwaves will move through which could initiate storms. Some
of the wind profiles based of model soundings show the potential
for discrete storms ahead of a possible line of storms coming
out of the NW. At the surface, a strong cold front will move
into place Wednesday helping to initiate thunderstorms
potentially producing another round of severe weather. There
remains slight uncertainty but models have hinted on the
potential for a recovering atmosphere ahead of the front that is
favorable for severe weather. The primary hazard at this time
looks to be strong to severe wind gusts but other hazards could
potentially evolve. For both Tuesday and Wednesday, most of the
area will be under a slight ERO. With PW`s remaining high and
showers and thunderstorms continuing, the flood risk could
increase, especially for areas that receive multiple rounds of
heavy rain. The QPF forecast at this time calls for 2-4" of rain
basically from RIC on south and east through Wed night. Once
this cold front moves through, slightly cooler (below normal)
temperatures are favored for Thursday/Friday. However, the risk
of heavy rain due to additional showers and thunderstorms looks
to continue across southeast VA and northeast NC through the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

Mix of VFR conditions over the northern half of the area and
MVFR CIGs and VSBY from RIC southward. PHF and RIC have observed
MVFR HZ associated with some smoke from the Canadian wildfires.
Winds are mainly E or SE 5-10 kt this afternoon but will become
variable or S overnight as the stalled front lifts back
northward. Winds become SW 10-15 with gusts to 20 kt by mid to
late morning Tuesday. Some showers and storms are ongoing,
mainly near and S of the VA/NC border. These cells will be the
most impactful in the ECG vicinity through the afternoon where a
TEMPO group has been included. Less confident in seeing
convection at RIC, ORF, and PHF so will leave out any specific
mention in this forecast. Guidance suggests another area of
showers and storms is possible farther north near RIC later
tonight but confidence in coverage and timing is low.
Regardless, MVFR CIGs are likely at RIC and SBY late tonight
with potentially some MVFR VSBY restrictions even outside of
precip areas. IFR CIGs are also possible at RIC and SBY toward
sunrise but have maintained MVFR for now. Chances for strong
storms ramp up quickly late in the period.

Outlook: Rain and storm chances increase Tuesday afternoon and
evening with strong storms possible. Additional storms are
possible on Wednesday before some drier air moves into the
region.


&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft conditions are likely across the waters late Tuesday
into Wednesday.

- Strong storms are possible through mid week, primarily during the
afternoons and evenings.

Benign marine conditions prevail today with primarily onshore flow
around 10kt expected. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet. A stationary
boundary lingers near the NC/VA border today, leading to scattered
showers and storms across southern waters. The front lifts north
tonight into tomorrow and winds turn SW as a result. Winds steadily
build Tuesday into Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens in
front of a cold front. SW winds around 15kt forecast for Tues
morning, increasing to 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt later Tues evening
through at least Wed morning. Local wind probs for 25kt+ wind gusts
peak early Wednesday morning. SCAs will likely be needed Tues
evening through much of Wed. Seas build to 5-7ft during this time
with waves in the bay at 3 to 4ft. Widespread showers and storms,
some of which may be severe, are also expected with the cold front
late Tues into Wed. Conditions improve behind the front Thurs as
winds turn to the north, then NE at 10-15kt. r the northern
beaches and low/moderate risk for the southern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDM
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AC