Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

036
FXUS61 KAKQ 242312
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
712 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion. No major forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A more typical summertime pattern takes hold by the end of
the week. Afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances return on
Friday.

2) Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend
with hot and humid weather expected, especially on Saturday.
Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures return early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A more typical summertime pattern takes hold by
the end of the week. Afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances
return on Friday.

Very pleasant this afternoon for late June with high pressure
building over the region. Temperatures range from the mid 70s at
the immediate coast, to the lower 80s inland, with dewpoints in
the mid 50s inland to lower 60s along the coast. Aloft, the
flow is quasi- zonal at the base of a broad and wavy trough from
the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Continued pleasant tonight
with low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s over the
Piedmont, to the mid/upper 60s at the coast, with some mid 50s
possible over the Piedmont.

A warming trend begins Thursday with upper 80s expected across
the majority of the area (lower to mid 80s at the coast) along
with increasing humidity, but still somewhat comfortable for
late June. Dry weather will continue to prevail through Friday
morning. It will be even warmer (low-mid 90s) on Friday with
continued low-level S-SW flow. Heat indices ~100F are possible
in SE VA/NE NC, but generally mid/upper 90s for most of the
area. However, an approaching shortwave will bring a chance of
showers and tstms to the area during the afternoon and evening,
with the highest chances initially across northern and western
portions of the area, with isolated- scattered convection
potentially spreading SE during the early part of Friday night
before diurnal weakening occurs. With the heat and humidity, a
few stronger tstms capable of producing highly localized
damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out, especially given
increasing 500mb flow in advance of a shortwave trough to our
NW.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances continue
through the weekend with hot and humid weather expected,
especially on Saturday. Dry weather and slightly cooler
temperatures return early next week.

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend
with hot and humid weather expected, especially on Saturday. Dry
weather and slightly cooler temperatures return early next
week.

The upper level flow gradually shifts from the W to NW over the
weekend as strong ridging builds over the Mississippi River
Valley. A series of shortwaves will drag a cold front through
the area late Sunday or Sunday night. Diurnal convection is
again expected on Saturday, with better tstm chances across much
of the area. Once again, a few stronger tstms will be capable
of producing highly localized damaging wind gusts. Convective
coverage is expected to be a bit less on Sunday and confined
more to southern portions of the FA. Remaining hot and humid on
Saturday with 100-105F heat indices across southern VA/NE NC.
Slightly lower temps are forecast on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday
with the front moving through. Dry wx returns Sun night into
early next week behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. Light and
variable winds tonight become SW 5-10 kt by mid to late morning.
Sea breeze effects will favor SE winds for the coastal terminals
in the afternoon. Scattered CU can be expected during the late
morning and afternoon hours.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions from Thursday PM-Friday AM.
Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms develop Friday into
this weekend, potentially bringing periods of sub-VFR
conditions. VFR conditions are expected to return by the
beginning of next week as the cold front moves out of the
forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- South to southeast winds in the Chesapeake Bay increase to
  near Small Craft Advisory conditions Thursday Afternoon into
  Thursday Night.

- Generally quiet marine conditions expected for the weekend
  outside of any thunderstorm activity ahead of a cold front on
  Saturday/Sat Night.

High pressure is gradually building over the region this
afternoon. This will allow for the north to northwest winds to
continue to decrease through the evening hours leading to very
pleasant marine conditions tonight. Seas generally less than 1
ft in the bay and less than 2 or 3 feet over the coastal waters.

This high shifts offshore on Thursday, allowing the winds to
become S-SE. As this occurs, the pressure gradient will increase
across the waters on Thursday also allowing winds to increase.
The channeling up the Chesapeake Bay may allow for 15-20 kt
winds Thu afternoon into the evening which will be near Small
Craft Advisory criteria. South winds of 10 to 20 kt will
continue into Friday although the strongest winds may be in the
coastal waters. Winds turn southwest ahead of a cold front which
passes through the waters Saturday night leading to winds
turning north and northeast by Sunday. However, the expectation
is that winds will stay less than 15 kt through the weekend
outside of any thunderstorm activity which may occur on
Saturday. Seas throughout the weekend generally 1 ft or less in
the bay and 3 feet or less over the coastal waters.

A low rip current risk will likely remain through late week
with generally benign conditions currently forecast, the lack of
shore- normal flow, and shorter period waves.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MRD