Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

988
FXUS61 KAKQ 211038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
538 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence increases with respect to the development of a strong
coastal low pressure Sunday into Monday. Along with heavy
accumulating snow Sunday night into early Monday with the highest
confidence across Eastern Va and the Eastern Shore where Winter
Storm Watches are in effect.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold front continues to push through the area this morning
setting across the Carolinas bringing chance of rain showers across
the southeast.

2) Strong coastal low pressure expected to impact the region Sunday
into early Monday resulting in the potential for heavy accumulating
snow, breezy to windy conditions along, the coast and hazardous
marine conditions. Winter Storm Watches are in effect for Eastern Va
and the Eastern Shore.

3) Minor coastal flooding is possible with the Sunday
night/early Monday high tide cycle, particularly along the
Atlantic coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front continues to push through the area
this morning setting across the Carolinas bringing chance of
rain showers across the southeast.

Early morning weather analysis shows moderate to strong WSW
zonal flow aloft stretching across the Mid-Atlantic. At the
surface, the cold front continues to push through the area this
morning and is situated across SE VA/NE NC. Temperatures
continue to remain quite mild in places due to a light breeze
while places that are experiencing little to no wind have
decoupled and temperatures are much cooler. Across the area
temps are ranging between the upper 40s to low 50s where the
light wind is remaining in place and upper 30s to middle 40s
where places have decoupled. Through the rest of the morning and
throughout the day a wave of low pressure will track along the
stalled out cold front south of the area. This system will help
increase cloud cover through the day primarily across the south.
In addition there should be enough residual moisture along the
front to help bring a chance of rain showers across NE NC. not
much QPF is expected as totals will be less than .1". Otherwise,
today will be a mild day with highs ranging in the upper 50s to
60F across VA & NC and low 50s across the Eastern Shore.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong coastal low pressure expected to impact
the region Sunday into early Monday resulting in the potential
for heavy accumulating snow, breezy to windy conditions along,
the coast and hazardous marine conditions. Winter Storm Watches
are in effect for Eastern Va and the Eastern Shore.

Model consensus continues to agree with a strong upper level
trough diving out of the Midwest Saturday night and moving into
the Mid- South and the Carolinas Sunday, before transferring
into a strong closed low off the Mid- Atlantic coast Sunday
night. A strong surface low pressure will quickly undertake bomb
cyclogenesis Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Given the
event is 36 hrs away there still remains quite a bit of model
spread. The latest GEFS and CMC ensembles have the center of the
low closer to the coast while the Ecmwf has nudged back to the
east. Given there is overall better agreement on a stronger
system closer to the coast the Ecmwf looks to be an outlier.
Nonetheless, this system is expected to bring heavy wet snow
across the northeastern half of the area that will bring
hazardous travel conditions and near whiteout conditions
primarily across the Eastern Shore. Surface temperatures
continue to remain on the marginal side but as this system
begins to truly takes form cold air is expected to quickly wrap
around leading to snow rapidly accumulating. Across Eastern VA
snow totals have risen and from the southern peninsula
stretching up towards the Northern Neck snow totals are expected
to range between 2 to 4" with possibility of isolated higher
totals as some models have hinted on better banding across the
area. While across the Eastern Shore confidence is extremely
high for much higher snow totals and near white out conditions
along the coastline. All model guidance continues to hint on
strong banding and heavy rates nearing 2" hr. Snow fall totals
for MD are expected to be between 6 to 9" with higher totals
possible while across the VA Eastern Shore 3 to 5"+ are
expected. In addition, as the low begins to rapidly deepen the
pressure gradient will tighten allowing for breezy and windy
conditions across the area. Across Eastern Va wind gusts could
be as high as 35+ mph. While across the Eastern Shore wind gusts
are expected to be near 40-50+mph especially along the
coastline. This will bring near white out conditions and perhaps
brief Blizzard conditions. If trends continue on a stronger
system Blizzard Warnings will perhaps be needed along the MD
Eastern Shore Coastline. The overall confidence for heavy wet
accumulating snow hazardous travel conditions is high across
these areas. Therefore a Winter Storm Watch has been issued.
While elsewhere snow totals are expected to remain low and most
places may see a dusting to 1-2". Additional winter headlines
maybe needed at a later time.

Temperatures will be below average to begin the week, with a
moderating trend by midweek ahead of another cold front. There
is a chance of rain with this cold front later next week.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor coastal flooding is possible with the
Sunday night/early Monday high tide cycle along the Atlantic
coast.

Strong onshore flow is expected on Sunday as low pressure
strengthens offshore. As a result, tidal anomalies are expected
to rise, especially along the Atlantic coast and particularly
across the northern Eastern Shore which will be closest to the
strong low. Ocean City has the potential to see high-end minor
tidal flooding with the Sunday night/early Monday morning high
tide. Down the coast, minor flooding is also possible at
Chincoteague. Tides remain elevated through Monday before
gradually diminishing early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 538 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 12z taf period with
light and variable winds. Throughout today winds will increase
between 5 to 10 kt out of the NNE under partly to mostly cloudy
skies. Confidence for light showers across the far SE has
increased and a prob-30 for ECG remains in place. There still
remains some uncertainity for showers making their way up
towards ORF and PHF. Later tonight flight conditions deteriorate
as a low pressure system starts to develop off the coast.

Outlook: Strong low pressure develops off the coast Sunday into
Monday and this has the potential to bring another period of
rain, gusty winds, and flight restrictions to the region Sunday
into early Monday. Precipitation could end as a rain/snow mix or
all snow at SBY and RIC. Drier air and high pressure will bring
a return to VFR conditions later Monday, which continues through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through
  tonight and into early Sunday morning.

- A strong system impacts the waters later Sunday into Monday.
  Storm Watches have been issued for the northern coastal
  waters with Gale Watches elsewhere.

Early this morning, a cold front has crossed the waters,
turning the winds to the NW ~5-10 kt. Sub-Advisory conditions
are expected through today and into early Sunday morning as weak
high pressure briefly builds across the area. Winds become NE
and increase to 10- 15 kt later Sunday morning ahead of the
next, stronger system.

Dangerous marine conditions are expected later Sunday and
especially Sunday night/early Monday morning as a strong low
pressure system develops near the coast Sunday and moves out to
sea. The low will likely deepen to 975-980mb by Monday. However,
how quickly (and close to the coast) it deepens will determine
exact impacts to our marine area (but degraded marine conditions
are likely regardless). There are still some differences in the
models and their respective ensembles, but the 00z/21 guidance
has trended slightly towards a stronger system closer to the
coast. The GFS/NAM remain the strongest and closest to the
coast, but the ECMWF and Canadian have both continued to trend
upward with respect to winds. The current forecast shows winds
becoming N at 20-25 kt (w/ gusts to 30 kt) by Sunday afternoon
before becoming NW Sunday night and increasing to 25-35 kt with
gusts to 35-45 kt. Across the northern coastal waters, winds
increase to 30-40 kt with gusts of 50+ kt possible. Peak winds
are expected to occur between midnight and 9 AM Monday before
diminishing to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Monday afternoon
(with the wind direction remaining NW). Regardless of specific
model details, local wind probabilities for 34+ knot wind gusts
are now 70- 90+% over much of the waters. In addition, local
wind probabilities for 48+ knot wind gusts have increased
significantly, especially over the northern coastal waters where
they show 50-70%. Given all the above, have issued Storm
Watches for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light
Sunday evening-Monday afternoon. Gale Watches have also been
expanded to include the tidal rivers. SCA winds are expected to
continue through much of Tuesday morning before finally dropping
below SCA levels during the day on Tuesday as high pressure
returns to the area. Calmer conditions later Tuesday through the
first half of Wednesday before a round of (marginal) SCA
conditions is possible later Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening
     for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening
     for VAZ075>078-083>086-090-099-100-517>523.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ630>638-656-658.
     Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AJB/ERI