Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

698
FXUS61 KAKQ 040801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
401 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. The
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms has expanded slightly.
The main threat remaining isolated damaging wind gusts.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for tonight/Sunday
across portions of the marine area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High temperature records may be challenged
today under mostly sunny skies.

2) A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or
thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk
for severe weather across the eastern half of the area, with the
main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

3) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly
below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze
headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with
widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...High temperature records may be challenged
today under mostly sunny skies.

High pressure both at the surface and aloft remains centered over
the central Atlantic Ocean along with surface low pressure to the
northeast of the area. A stronger low pressure system aloft over the
Northern Plains slides eastward with an accompanying surface low over
the Great Lakes region. The position of these features will allow
for continued SW flow and warm temperatures. Highs today may
challenge previous records, although are currently forecast to fall
just short. A rogue shower or storm cannot be ruled out this
afternoon, but confidence is very low at this time.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or
thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk
for severe weather across the eastern half of the area, with the
main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

A low pressure system will advance NE across the Great Lakes Region
over the weekend and drag a strong cold front through the area late
Sunday afternoon into the first part of Sunday night. Showers and
isolated tstms will form west of the mountains along a pre-frontal
trough on Saturday, before crossing the mountains Saturday night-
Sunday AM. The latest CAMs continue to bring the precipitation into
the area late Sunday morning for the NW portions to early afternoon
for central portions and late afternoon for the SE portions. With
the timing of the convection, there will be a rather large
temperature gradient for the highs on Sunday with the NW seeing
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and the SE seeing highs in the
upper 70s to near 80F. The latest guidance does hint towards more
moisture returns to the area ahead of the front with dewpoints in
the low 60s to near 65F. This could bring a few hundred J/kg of
SBCAPE across the eastern half of the FA. This could result in some
strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC maintains the Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) with the front, now expanded slightly to include the
eastern half of the FA, where the highest instability is likely. The
main threat with any storms would be isolated damaging wind gusts,
as wind profiles look to be largely unidirectional and poor lapse
rates. Areal average rainfall totals look to be 0.25-0.50" with
locally higher amounts in storms. While totals of ~1" are unlikely,
any rain is welcome, as a large majority of the area is under a
moderate drought. Additionally, ahead of and behind the front, winds
will be gusty to 25-30 mph during the day Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near
or slightly below average early next week with the potential for
frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday,
with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast.

Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average early
next week in the wake of the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will
be in the 60s, with Monday being slightly warmer in the mid 60s. A
secondary front is progged to drop south through the area Tuesday,
providing a reinforcing shot of CAA. Strong high pressure builds to
the north of the area by midweek which will result in cooler
conditions on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s due
to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze
headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-
Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started with
temperatures falling back into the 30s. At this time, Wednesday
morning looks to have the highest potential for a freeze, with
widespread lows around freezing possible depending on how much
boundary layer decoupling we see.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/04 TAF period. SW
winds of 5-10 kt are expected overnight, increasing during the day
to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Winds will likely remain ~10kt
overnight Saturday. Mainly CU are expected during the day with
increasing clouds from west to east late in the forecast period.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Saturday night. There`s
a low chance of isolated showers Saturday afternoon and evening.
Widespread showers and possible flight restrictions are expected
Sunday along a stronger cold front. A few thunderstorms are
possible, and there is a low chance for a strong or severe
storm.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions today.

- SCAs go into effect late this evening for the bay, lower
  James, and Ocean N of Cape Charles.

- Another cold front will likely bring additional SCA conditions
  Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Low pressure has pushed off to the Canadian maritimes, with
high pressure well off the SE US coast early this morning. The
wind is generally SSW 10-15kt over the Bay and rivers, and 15-
20kt across the coastal waters. Seas are 3-4ft, with ~2ft waves
in the Ches. Bay. These conditions are expected to continue
today. By this evening, strong low pressure moves into the Great
Lakes, tightening up the pressure gradient enough for SCAs
across portions of the local waters. For now, headlines have
been issued for the Bay, lower James, and the Ocean N of Cape
Charles where confidence is high to see S-SW winds of 15-20 kt
with gusts of ~25 kt. Seas build to 5-6 ft offshore of the
northern waters, but the limited fetch will tend to keep them
capped at 3-4 ft to the south with only an occasional gust to 25
kt possible. The front crosses the waters late Sunday afternoon
through late Sunday evening, with a period of low-end SCAs with
N-NW winds likely Sun night- Mon AM with CAA following the
FROPA. Given the marginal nature of this CAA surge, and with an
extended timeframe of sub-SCA winds expected Sunday afternoon
and evening, have ended the current SCAs prior to the wind shift
behind the front (with expectation that as we approach that
portion of the event additional SCAs may be needed).

Weak/transient high pressure brings diminishing winds Monday,
but a secondary cold front pushes through late Monday night,
potentially bringing another marginal surge of N-NW winds.
Strong high pressure to nearly 1040 mb lags behind and will
settle into the the northern mid- Atlantic region Tue night/early
Wed. The additional CAA and pressure rises will probably allow
for yet another surge of northerly winds, and with the direction
being more from the NE, seas are likely to build more significantly
to at least 5-6 ft for the southern ocean zones, bringing more
headlines.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for today, 4/4:

Richmond: Record High:
Sat (4/4)           87/2011

Norfolk:            Record High:
Sat (4/4) 86/2025

Salisbury:          Record High:
Sat (4/4) 83/1999

Elizabeth City:     Record High:
Sat (4/4) 88/2025

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/KMC
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
CLIMATE...AJB