Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

592
FXUS61 KAKQ 151003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
603 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into New England today, remaining in place
through mid-week. A coastal low approaches the region today,
lingering through mid-week. This low will bring widespread rain,
cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions across the area from
later today through Wednesday. A brief warmup is expected by late
week before a return to slightly below normal temperatures by early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Wind Advisories have been issued along the coast from Norfolk/Portsmouth
  south to eastern Currituck from this afternoon into early
  Tuesday morning.

- Rain pushes inland beginning from late this morning through tonight.
  Locally heavy rainfall is possible across SE VA/NE NC
  tonight.

Latest analysis depicted a ~1008mb low pressure off the Carolina
coast and a 1027mb high centered over SE Canada, ridging south into
the local area. Aloft, there was a closed upper level low over the
Southeast coast with a tall/skinny ridge extending from the MS
Valley into the Great Lakes and Canada. Temps as of 150 AM ranged
from the upper 50s to lower 60s inland with lower 70s along the
coast. Skies were mostly clear except for some high clouds building
into SE VA/NE NC. Clouds are expected to gradually spread north this
morning. However, given the clearing, some patchy fog is possible
early this morning across inland areas. Morning lows in the upper
50s to around 60F inland (locally mid 50s) and upper 60s to around
70F along the coast are expected. Highs today in the 70s are
expected with upper 70s north and mid (locally lower) 70s south.

The coastal low offshore slowly moves NW today, pushing rain bands
onshore beginning late this morning and spreading inland through the
day. PoPs increase to 50-80% across far SE VA/NE NC this afternoon,
increasing to 60-90% across most of the area (30-50% across far
northern areas) tonight. Moderate to heavy rain is expected tonight
as the fgen on the north side of the low intensifies. As such,
expect rainfall totals through tonight of generally 1-2" across NE
NC, 0.5-1" across SE VA, and <0.5" NW of Richmond with locally
heavier totals possible across southern portions of the FA. Given
the potential for heavy rain and training of showers, WPC has placed
a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall across far SE VA/NE NC for
today/tonight. Additionally, given the enhanced fgen north of the
low allowing for a belt of enhanced low-level winds and near 70F dew
points along the coast, SPC has placed a Marginal risk for severe
storms across far SE VA/NE NC for tonight with the main threat being
a quick, spin-up tornado. Will note that while the tornado
threat is low given weak instability and the potential for a
stable surface layer, elevated storms are possible tonight
across mainly SE VA/NE NC.

Additionally, the pressure gradient between the high pressure
to the north and the coastal low tightens over the area today
into tonight. This will allow NE winds to increase to 10-15 mph
with gusts up to 20-25 mph inland and 20-30 mph with gusts up to
45 mph along the coast this afternoon into tonight. As such,
Wind Advisories have been issued for eastern Currituck County
from 2 PM this afternoon through 6 AM Tue, and for Norfolk,
Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach from 6 PM this evening through 10
AM Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Locally heavy rain is possible Tuesday across eastern portions
  of the area with storm total rainfall totals of 2-3"+
  possible.

- Breezy NE winds with gusts up to 25-30 mph inland and up to
  30-45 mph along the coast continue Tuesday.

Models and ensembles have come into better agreement on the coastal
low moving into E NC by early Tue morning and becoming nearly
stationary through the day before slowly moving NE Wed. While
confidence is now high on the general track of the low, the exact
location of the center will matter with respect to the heavy rain
and flooding potential given that it is expected to stall on Tue
underneath an upper level closed low aloft. Widespread light to
moderate rain is expected across the area Tue into Tue night.
However, 00z CAMs and HREF showing the potential for a swath of
heavy rain just to the NW of the center of the low. Training showers
with heavy rainfall rates lasting for several hours in duration are
the main concern, particularly given the stationary aspect of the
surface low. The 00z HREF 48 hour PMM (probability-matched mean)
shows the potential for 2-4" across SE VA/NE NC but a corridor of 5-
10" of rain across E NC. This is concerning given PWs of 1.8-2.0"
and the overall synoptic support including the enhanced pressure
gradient to the NW of the low given high pressure to the N as well
as being located underneath a closed low aloft. Several 00z CAMs
also showed the potential for a swath of up to 5-7"+ of rain. While
the general consensus is for the heaviest rain to fall just to
the south of the local area, a slight shift north in the
position of the low would place that potential over NE NC and
potentially SE VA. As such, we will continue to closely monitor
the model trends today and may need to issue a Flood Watch even
though antecedent conditions have been very dry. WPC has placed
the SE half of the FA under a Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall on Tue for now to account for the localized flooding
potential.

The coastal low weakens on Wed with additional rainfall totals of up
to ~0.5" possible. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2-3" (locally
higher) across SE VA/NE NC and 0.5-1.5" across the NW half of the
area are expected with most locations seeing >1" of rain. The
widespread rain and clouds will also keep temps cool Tue and
Wed with highs in the mid 60s possible across the Piedmont,
upper 60s to lower 70s farther east, and mid to potentially
upper 70s across far SE VA/NE NC on Tue. Richmond may see highs
near the daily record low maximum value on Tue (see climate
section below for more information). Temps will remain cool on
Wed with highs struggling to get out of the 60s inland
(generally upper 60s are forecast) and low- mid 70s across
eastern portions of the FA with upper 70s possible across far SE
VA/NE NC. Additionally, breezy NE winds with gusts up to 25-30
mph inland and up to 30-45 mph along the coast continue Tuesday
with Wind Advisories continuing across Norfolk, Portsmouth, and
Virginia Beach through 10 AM Tue. Winds become N/NE and diminish
to 5-10 mph Wed as the low weakens and the high pressure across
New England moves offshore, weakening the pressure gradient.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure moves away from the area Thursday with improving conditions.

- A warmup is expected by late week with cooler weather
  returning next weekend.

The upper level low washes out across the region Thu with the
coastal low weakening as it lifts NE. However, clouds and drizzle or
light rain linger into Thu with some clearing skies possible in the
late afternoon. As such, highs are expected to be a bit warmer on
Thu with temps in the upper 70s for most (locally mid 70s are
possible). The upper level ridge moves into the East Coast Fri into
Sat with a warmup expected on Fri with highs in the mid 80s
possible. A strong area of high pressure builds SE into New England
next weekend into early next week with CAD potentially developing.
As such, cooler weather returns with highs generally in the 70s Sat
through Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM EDT Monday...

Latest analysis depicted a weak area of low pressure off the
Carolina coast and a strong area of high centered over SE
Canada, ridging south into the local area. Skies were mostly
clear north and partly to mostly cloudy south. Some patchy fog
is possible inland early this morning, however, the fog should
remain away from the local terminals. Clouds increase later this
morning from south to north with mostly cloudy skies expected
from late morning through the 12z taf period. The coastal low
offshore will slowly move NW today, allowing for CIGs to
gradually lower to MVFR at ECG by 15-16z and ORF by 23-00z.
CIGs continue to lower overnight with IFR CIGs possible at ECG
after ~3z Tue and MVFR or lower CIGs across all terminals by 8z
Tue. Light to moderate rain will begin to move onshore across
far SE VA/NE NC later this morning into this afternoon,
spreading inland through tonight. Rain could be locally heavy at
times tonight with IFR VIS possible. Otherwise, NNE winds were
light across most of the terminals and ~10 kt at ECG early this
morning. Expect winds to become NE 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20
kt inland and 20 kt with gusts up to ~30 kt at ECG and areas
closer to the coast later this morning through tonight.

The coastal low pushes into eastern NC tonight and lingers into
midweek, leading to increased clouds, widespread rain, and a
prolonged period of reduced CIGs (widespread IFR conditions Tue
through at least Wed) and VIS across all area terminals.
Conditions gradually improve Thursday, with dry and VFR
conditions returning by Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Marine conditions deteriorate later today and especially
  tonight as low pressure off the Carolina coast deepens as it
  tracks toward the marine area. Gale Warnings are in effect for
  all ocean zones, the bay south of Windmill Point, and the
  Lower James River. NE winds will range from 25-30 kt with
  frequent gusts to 35-40 kt from later today through Tuesday.

- A High Rip Risk remains in place for the southern beaches
  through Wednesday, with a moderate rip risk across the
  northern beaches today. The rip risk increases to high across
  the northern beaches on Tuesday.

- Winds slowly decrease from late Tuesday through Wednesday as
  the low fills in.

Latest analysis shows deepening low pressure off the Carolina coast,
with ~1028mb high pressure over SE Canada and the NE CONUS. NE winds
have increased to ~15 kt N/20 kt S as the gradient between these two
features is gradually starting to tighten.

Marine conditions still look to deteriorate quickly from south to
north today, and especially tonight, as the weak low off the
Carolina coast deepens and lifts N toward the mid-Atlantic coast.
The low is progged to move inland over eastern NC on Tuesday and
gradually weaken/fill in as it becomes vertically stacked from late
Tue-Wed as it tracks near/over the southern waters. The 15/00z suite
of guidance continue to show high potential for gale force gusts
across the ocean/lower bay. Timing looks a bit later than was
depicted by the 12z/14 guidance, and have pushed back the start time
of the Gale Warnings for the SE VA coastal waters by 3-6 hours.
Winds increase to 25-30 kt across the ocean, middle/lower bay, Lower
James, and Currituck Sound by this evening/tonight. Winds may even
be just above 30 kt for a few hours south of Cape Charles tonight-
Tue AM, where probs for sustained gales are ~20% between 4-10 AM
Tuesday. As such, have expanded the Gale Warnings to include the bay
S of Windmill Pt and all ocean zones. Will keep SCAs for the
northernmost bay zone and upper rivers where local wind probs for
34+ kt wind gusts are no higher than 20-35%. Wind gusts decrease
below gale force across the NC coastal waters during the day on Tue
but likely remain 25-30 kt with 30-40 kt gusts farther north before
dropping to high-end SCA levels by Tue evening-early Tue night. Will
run Gale headlines for the bay, VA/MD coastal waters, and Lower
James River through late Tuesday to account for this.

Winds gradually decrease from south to north from Tuesday evening
into Wednesday, as the vertically-stacked low tracks over the marine
area (resulting in a slackening pressure gradient). Sub-SCA winds
are then expected late this week. With the increasing NE winds, seas
will build to 8-11 ft by tonight/Tue with 3-6 ft waves on the bay
(potentially to ~7 ft at the mouth of the bay). High Surf Advisories
have been issued for the VA coast and the NE NC Outer Banks from
late this evening-Tuesday. The high rip risk will continue for the
southern beaches through at least Wednesday. The rip risk is
moderate across the northern beaches today, increasing to high on
Tue/Wed.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

With the increasing NE winds and building seas Mon night-Tue, tidal
anomalies across the lower bay and SE VA/NE NC coast are expected
increase by 1-1.5 ft. Anomalies across the upper bay won`t increase
as much (especially on the E side of the bay given the NE wind).
This will likely result in another round of minor tidal flooding
across the tidal Potomac/Rappahannock/York/James, Middle/Lower Bay,
and SE VA/NE NC coast. ETSS shows solid to high-end minor flooding
across most of these locations, with peak water levels occurring
during the Tuesday evening high tide cycle. There is increasing
potential for moderate flooding Tuesday evening along the tidal
James, southern shore of the Chesapeake Bay, and SE VA coast. With
the increase in winds, ETSS is now a few tenths above moderate in
these locations during the Tue evening high tide. Also, the 50th
percentile is now just above the 4.5 ft MLLW threshold at Jamestown
with the 90th percentile right around the major flood threshold of
5.0 ft MLLW. These percentiles from the P-ETSS seem reasonable given
the forecast winds/synoptic pattern. As such, confidence in moderate
flooding has increased enough to issue a Coastal Flood Watch from
Jamestown to Norfolk/VA Beach for that Tuesday evening high tide
cycle. Areas just to the north of the watch are expected to see
solid to high end minor tidal flooding Tuesday evening.

Given that minor tidal flooding (mainly low-end minor) begins with
the high tide this aftn/evening from Lewisetta to Norfolk/VA Beach,
have issued Coastal Flood Advisories for these locations starting
today (and continuing through Tue). Have also issued an advisory for
Eastern Currituck just for today (as water levels are forecast to
crest below minor there tonight with the lower astronomical tide).
Additional advisories may be needed just for Tuesday for the
Atlantic coast of the eastern shore, but did not issue them with the
overnight forecast package given that water levels are expected to
crest below minor flood stage today/tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

         9/16 9/17
RIC    65/1959  61/2011
ORF    64/1963  65/1986
SBY    59/1963  63/1924
ECG    66/1963  65/2011

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT
     this afternoon for NCZ102.
     High Surf Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ102.
     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for
     VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for VAZ075>078-085-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     Tuesday for VAZ083-084-086-518-520-523.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Tuesday for VAZ089-090-093-096-524-525.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late
     Tuesday night for VAZ089-090-093-096-524-525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for
     VAZ095-097-098.
     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     VAZ095-098.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for VAZ095-097-098.
     High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Tuesday
     for VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ631.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ631-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     634.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633-
     658.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ633-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ654-656.
     Gale Warning from noon today to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-
     656.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...