Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

032
FXUS61 KAKQ 222300
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
700 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
IFD continues for southern VA until 5pm and NC until 8pm EDT
this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry with a low chance for showers Thursday. A backdoor
front approaches the area Friday with additional showers or storms
possible along and ahead of the boundary.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a
cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure
tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 700 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with a low chance for showers Thursday. A
backdoor front approaches the area Friday with additional showers or
storms possible along and ahead of the boundary.

The evening surface analysis depicted a few light sprinkles
across portions of S/SE VA and NE NC. This weak convection has
gradually been dissipating and this trend is expected to
continue. Any additional rainfall should be very light
(generally a trace). Any light sprinkles should end over the
next couple of hours. Regarding fire weather, will allow the
Increased Fire Danger Statement to expire at 8 PM for NE NC.

Skies clear tonight with lows mainly in the 50s. Mostly sunny skies
are expected Thursday morning with high pressure building back
over the area. However, recent model trends continue to show a
weak shortwave moving through. This should be enough forcing for
increasing clouds from late morning through the afternoon with
partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies (due to CU) at times
increasingly likely by the afternoon. Additionally, forecast
soundings show some weak instability in NW flow aloft which may
result in some isolated to widely scattered showers with a
nonzero chance for an isolated thunderstorm through the
afternoon. However, forecast soundings continue to show very dry
conditions below 800mb which would limit much (if any) of the
precip reaching the surface once again. As such, only a trace to
perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rain is the most likely
scenario. Even with the dry near- surface layer, very light
winds are expected Thursday which will mitigate fire weather
concerns. A backdoor cold front drops into the area Friday
afternoon. There is a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms in vicinity of
the boundary, but overall coverage is expected to be limited
given a lack of rich moisture. Warm inland Thursday and Friday
with highs in the mid 80s. Lower to mid 70s are expected along
the coast Thursday, and upper 60s/lower 70s Friday as the
backdoor front nudges onshore.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday
night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low
pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow
Sunday into Monday.

Most 12z/22 deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a cold front
dropping to near the VA/NC border Saturday. Timing of this front
will have an impact on high temperatures Saturday as very warm
conditions should continue ahead of the front, with much cooler
temperatures behind the front. A wave of low pressure tracks along
the front later Saturday into Saturday night bringing rain chances
to the region. 24 hour 12z/22 EPS 50th percentile QPF through 12z
Sunday remains on the order of 0.2-0.4", while the GEFS remains less
than 0.2". Probabilities of exceeding 0.5" are generally 20-40% N
and NE from the EPS and less than 20% S, while the GEFS 0.5" probs
are less than 20% for the entire area. This precip would not
substantially alleviate drought concerns, but would definitely be
welcome. A few tstms are possible at the onset Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs in the 60s
Sunday and lows in the mid 40s Sunday night. High pressure is
progged to return by Monday with high temperatures in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Another front potentially moves into the area by
Tuesday with ensemble 50th percentile QPF showing mainly 0.25-0.40"
area averages.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Wednesday...

A few isolated light sprinkles will gradually taper off this
evening across S VA and NE NC. BKN stratus (7000-10000 ft CIGs)
across SE VA/NE NC will gradually move SE this evening. Behind
it, clearing is expected with mostly clear skies across all
terminals after midnight. A weak shortwave moves through Thu,
allowing for increasing cloud cover in the afternoon. As such,
have increased cloudy cover to SCT-BKN. Additionally, isolated
to perhaps scattered light showers are possible Thu afternoon
into Thu evening. However, any QPF would likely be very light
(similar to today) with little to no impact to VIS. Given the
low confidence in shower coverage, have left any mention of
showers out of the TAFs for now, however, if confidence
increases a PROB30 may be needed in future updates. Any showers
should end by around 10 PM Thu. Otherwise, winds become light
and variable tonight. Winds become W 5-10 kt Thu afternoon for
all terminals except SBY where winds are expected to be NW. A
seabreeze moves onshore late Thu afternoon, allowing winds to
become NE and perhaps even SE by late afternoon near the coast
(ORF/PHF). Winds become calm Thu evening.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front could trigger a few showers and
perhaps a tstm Fri aftn (20-40% chc). Some lower cigs are
possible behind the backdoor front Fri night. Low pressure
tracks along the boundary Sat afternoon into Saturday night,
bringing an increased chc of showers and flight restrictions.
High pressure builds to the N Sun with an onshore component to
the wind persisting along the coast, which could result in
persistent lower cigs.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-Conditions continue to improve this evening, then benign conditions
prevail through the end of the week.

-Onshore flow develops over the weekend, potentially becoming strong
by Sunday.

Marine conditions have improved since this morning. The tighter
pressure gradients have pushed to the south. Also, cloud cover
across most of the bay and the northern coastal waters is helping to
shut down mixing and therefore gustiness. Latest obs reflect 5-10kt
out of the WNW across the northern half of the waters. Still mostly
sunny south of the York River and Cape Charles, so mixing over the
land is allowing for nearshore increased winds to continue, though
it is mostly sub-SCA at 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt. Will continue
the SCAs for the York, James, and Currituck Sound to account for
those nearshore winds, but should be able to let those expire at 4pm
as planned. Benign conditions will prevail tonight through Friday as
high pressure builds in over much of the East Coast. W winds around
10kt expected tonight, then light and variable (with aftn sea
breeze) through Friday morning. E flow around 10kt then settles in
Fri. Next chance for SCAs will be Sat evening through Sun as a cold
front passes through the area and low pressure potentially develops
off the coast.

Seas this afternoon are 2-3ft. Waves in the bay are 1-2ft. With
light winds prevailing over the next two days, expecting 1ft or less
in the bay and rivers and seas around 2ft. Seas will build as
onshore flow develops over the weekend, especially on Sunday with
the potential for strong NE winds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/RHR/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AC