Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

209
FXUS61 KAKQ 151054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
654 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12z TAF/Aviation update.

The Heat Advisory has been extended into Eastern King William,
Gloucester, and Mathews Counties (VA)

Have added mention of areas of smoke from Ontario, Canada wild
fires and Air Quality alert for our MD counties.

Rain chances have increased slightly for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot conditions with moderate humidity levels prevail for the
remainder of the week, along with mainly dry conditions.

2) Waves of smoke from Canadian wildfires will push into the
area later today through late this week.

3) Increasing thunderstorm chances this weekend, with very warm
and humid conditions persisting into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot conditions with moderate humidity levels
prevail for the remainder of the week, along with mainly dry
conditions.

The latest analysis indicates a potent and anomalously strong
(597+ dm) upper level ridge centered across the Mid-Mississippi
River Valley and an upper trough over Atlantic Canada that has
pivoted well offshore of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coast.
At the surface, high pressure is located over the region, with
deepening sfc low pressure over Atlantic Canada.

Temperatures warm up a bit more today as the strong upper level
ridge expands E-SE into the local area, allowing heights to rise
along much of the eastern seaboard. Locally, humidity levels
look to stay moderate, keeping afternoon heat indices from
rising much above ambient air temperatures. However, with the
core of the ridge centered across northern areas today, the
hottest temperatures and heat index values look to remain over
the VA Northern Neck and the Maryland Eastern Shore. Afternoon
dewpoints look to mix out into the upper 60s, but with highs
around 100 F, still anticipate seeing a 3 to 4 hour period this
afternoon with heat indices near 105 F. For that reason, a Heat
Advisory remains in effect from Caroline Co. east across the
Northern Neck and into the MD Eastern Shore and Accomack (VA).
Eastern King William, Gloucester, and Mathews counties have
been added to the Heat Advisory with this package.

Given the referenced Canadian low pressure and a cold front
trailing the deepening cyclone to our north approaching,
increasing W-SW low-level flow should push hot temperatures all
the way to the Atlantic coast (including Ocean City and
Wallops), with highs in the upper 90s to around 100. Areas to
the south will mix out a bit more, allowing dewpoints to lower
into the 60s and yielding heat indices right around 100 degrees.

Tomorrow still looks to be the hottest day of the week, with
widespread readings in the upper 90s to around 100F over much of
the local area, though slightly cooler over southside Hampton
Roads into northeast NC, farther away from the core of the heat
ridge. Another round of Heat Advisories are likely to be needed
over the same northern areas tomorrow and will also probably
need to be expanded south to at least the Richmond/Tri-Cities
area and much of Hampton Roads. Convection should remain
suppressed away from the area through most of Thursday, though
we will maintain a slight chance (~20%) PoP Thursday evening
across the MD Eastern Shore, as upstream convection approaches
from the north before washing out. On Friday, temperatures will
likely be a little cooler over the north and along the coast
and the Eastern Shore. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed
across south- central and SE VA into northeast NC. A low chance
for isolated showers/storms moves in from the NW Friday
evening, as isolated convection riding along the ridge could
make it into the area before weakening.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Waves of smoke from Canadian wildfires will
push into the area later today through late this week.

As if the returning heat and humidity weren`t enough, waves of
dense smoke aloft emanating from wildfires over west-central
Ontario will push south toward the area later today and
intermittently over the next few days. The smoke shows up well
on early morning GOES imagery, getting funneled SE into the
region along the eastern periphery of the building upper ridge.
CAMs (HRRR/RRFS) indicate a bit more smoke pushes in later today
and tonight, but remains mainly well aloft for now.

However, as the ridge breaks down in the coming days and
stronger WNW-NW flow aloft develops, it is possible some near-
surface impacts could develop, namely air quality issues and
visibility restrictions in haze by Friday. An Air Quality Alert
has been issued for Maryland for today, including the MD Lower
Eastern Shore. Additional alerts are possible later this week
and we will continue to monitor potential further impacts in the
days ahead.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Increasing thunderstorm chances this weekend,
with very warm and humid conditions persisting into early next
week.

The upper level ridge continues to gradually break down over
the weekend as upper troughing re-establishes itself over the
northern Mid-Atlantic and northeast CONUS. A series of
shortwaves will track across the area from Saturday through
Monday ahead of the next front approaching from the north. It
now seems likely that this weakening front will linger across
the area into Monday.

While considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact
timing and coverage of storms, the upper flow turning WNW-NW
over a hot, increasingly humid, and moisture-pooled boundary
layer sets up a climatologically-favored pattern for locally
heavy rainfall and downbursts. Low-level frontal forcing still
appears weak, typical of mid-July, but moisture pooling along
the slow-moving boundary beneath steep mid-level lapse rates
will favor a hot, muggy, high DCAPE setup capable of producing
isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts each day this weekend,
potentially lingering into Monday. Areal coverage of these
storms will ultimately depend on the timing of each shortwave,
which remains highly uncertain at this time range.

High temperatures trend a bit cooler with the increasing PWs
and cloud cover. However, with that comes higher dewpoints. This
appears especially likely across SE VA and NE NC, where max
heat indices will likely linger near 105 F through Sunday, if
not Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
through the 12z TAF period. Light SSW winds increase to 7-10 kt
later this morning into this evening. Will note there is some
high level smoke from Ontario wildfires that approaches from
the north later today and especially tonight, but should not
impact flight condition yet.

Outlook: Dry conditions prevail through late this week. An
isolated SHRA/TSRA possible at SBY Thu evening. High-res
guidance indicating an increasing chance for VSBY restrictions
in haze/smoke on Friday morning/afternoon. Another chance of
isolated showers/tstms mainly west of KRIC on Friday, with
better chances area wide coming later Saturday and Sunday.


&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

-  Benign marine conditions are expected into late week with
   high pressure focused near the area.

An elongated area of high pressure remains in the vicinity of the
local waters early this morning. Winds are currently SW 10-15 kt
with gusts up to 20 kt across the local waters. There will be a
slight decrease in winds during the day today with SW winds around 5-
10 kt before increasing again overnight tonight into Thursday with 5-
10 kt with gusts to 15 kt in the Ches. Bay and 10-15 kt with gusts
to 20 kt over the coastal waters. The high pressure will remain near
the area through Thursday, allowing for sub-SCA conditions to
prevail with S- SW winds. A weak frontal passage remains possible
Thursday into Friday, but now looks to lose the forcing before
making it through the local waters. A wind shift to the E-NE Friday
is possible, more likely for the northern waters than the southern
waters. Southerly flow could approach SCA thresholds Saturday night
into Sunday morning ahead of a frontal system. Seas will generally
be around 2 ft through the end of the week, increasing to 3-4 ft as
S winds increase later Saturday.

There is a moderate risk for rip currents across the northern Outer
Banks, NC today with a low risk elsewhere. A low risk is favored
everywhere Thursday and Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday...

- Record Highs:

-     Today 7/15      Thu 7/16      Fri 7/17

- RIC: 100 (1995)    101 (1980)    100 (1980)
- ORF: 101 (1995)    102 (1879)    100 (1887)
- SBY: 100 (1995)     99 (1915)     99 (2012)
- ECG:  97 (1997)     98 (1995)     99 (1942)

- Record High Mins:

-       Thu 7/16       Fri 7/17

- RIC:   77 (1983)     77 (2025)
- ORF:   80 (1995)     80 (2024)
- SBY:   78 (2024)     80 (1983)
- ECG:   79 (2012)     80 (2019)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ064-075>078-084>086-099-517>522.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...KMC/SW
CLIMATE...LKB