Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

865
FXUS61 KAKQ 051055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
655 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Section. No significant changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable temperatures and dry this week.

2) Moisture does not return until late this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures and dry this week.

Low pressure is centered off the coast of southern New England
early this morning, with a trailing cold front off the Mid-
Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a narrow ridge of surface high
pressure is located over the Piedmont. Widespread stratus covers
much of the region early this morning, with some fog possible
over the Piedmont toward sunrise. A shortwave trough will track
across the Northeast early this morning, which will allow for
low pressure to lift to the NE and the cold front to move
farther offshore. This will allow drier air to filter in from
the N with stratus lifting and scattering later this morning.
Becoming mostly sunny later this morning through the afternoon
(some high clouds may linger SE) with a light N wind. Forecast
highs are in the mid to upper 70s, which are a few degrees above
NBM, noting that statistical guidance shows highs in the upper
70s to around 80F.

A dry cold front slides N-S across the Mid-Atlantic tonight as
high pressure builds SE from the Great Lakes. Low temperatures
likely drop into the mid/upper 40s from the Piedmont to the MD
Eastern Shore ranging to the mid/upper 50s across coastal
regions of SE VA and NE NC. High temperatures Tuesday will be
slightly below average and generally in the mid 60s to lower
70s. Tuesday night will be the coolest of the week (and of the
season so far) with widespread lows in the 40s and 50s at the
immediate coast as high pressure settles over the region. Some
upper 30s are possible in rural and typically cooler locations
in the Piedmont. High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday with
high temperatures moderating back to near average, which are in
the lower to mid 70s. The high shifts farther offshore Thursday
with high temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s
(potentially mid 80s away from the coast) ahead of another dry
cold front. This cold front crosses the region Thursday night
with temperatures trending down to near seasonal averages Friday
and Saturday.

A very dry airmass arrives behind the cold front tonight.
00z/05 EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble guidance showing PW values falling
to 35-50% of normal Tuesday and only `recovering` to 50-70%
Wednesday. A slight increase to 70-90% of normal is expected by
Thursday ahead of the cold front, and then the airmass behind
the front has a similar (lack) of moisture. Overall, dry
conditions will prevail at least through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture does not return until late this
weekend into early next week.

By late this weekend into early next week, there is a potential
that moisture gets pulled northward from the western Gulf and
then pushed eastward across the region ahead of a trough over
the mid- Mississippi Valley. Confidence is definitely low with
regard to details. However, global ensemble guidance does show
PW values rising above normal, with some deeper moisture in the
700-300mb layer. Given this, a chc for showers returns to the
forecast Sunday and Monday. Temperatures should remain near
average late this weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Monday...

Weak low pressure and a stationary front linger offshore as of
12z. Meanwhile, a narrow ridge of surface high pressure was
located over the Piedmont. Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs persist.
Drier air is expected to gradually filter in from the N this
morning, with cigs expected to lift between 13-15z (potentially
MVFR at ECG to 16z). Primarily VFR with decreasing clouds after
15-16z (although some CI may persist for the SE terminals) with
a N/NNW wind ~10kt, and locally gusting to near 20kt at SBY
during the aftn. VFR under a mostly clear sky tonight. A dry
cold front slides across the area tonight. This will likely
result in a NNE wind of 10-12kt at ORF and ECG late tonight into
early Tuesday morning, which could briefly gust to near 20kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail Tuesday and continue through
much of the week. The next chances for sub-VFR conditions are
likely not until next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A brief period of elevated seas persist through this morning
  for the northern coastal waters where Small Craft Advisories
  are in effect.

- Northerly winds increase behind a reinforcing cold front
  tonight, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for the
  Chesapeake Bay and lower James River.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail for the remainder of the week with
  high pressure in control.

Transient high pressure is situated west of the waters this
morning, with an cold front and weak area of low pressure
offshore. The pressure gradient has been a bit tighter than
initially expected and northerly winds are generally 10-15 kt
and occasionally a bit higher on the ocean. This is yielding a
few gusts to 20 kt. As a result, seas are also a bit higher than
than earlier forecasts and are likely around 5 ft N of
Parramore Island, though observations in that vicinity are
limited to the Bethany Beach buoy (which has been hovering
around 5 ft for the past several hours). Given all of this, did
issue a short-fused Small Craft Advisory for these higher seas
for the northern two ocean zones through 11z/7 AM. The wind
direction shifts to the NW this afternoon and this should allow
for some decrease in the seas.

A stronger push of cooler and drier air arrives this evening
into tonight as a reinforcing cold front pushes through the
waters. Northerly winds increase to 15-20 kt across the
Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and coastal waters, with
gusts to 25 kt also expected. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory has
been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River from
late this evening through early Tuesday morning. Seas are also
expected to increase again, but there is some uncertainty if
they will reach 5 ft. Most wave guidance suggests a peak around
4 ft in the 0-20 nm zones; however, would not be surprised if
some 5 footers sneak in. Given the lower confidence, will hold
off on advisories for the ocean at this time. This will be
reevaluated with the afternoon forecast update. Waves on the
Chesapeake Bay will average 2-4 ft tonight. Wind speeds should
be in the 10-15 kt range elsewhere on the upper rivers and
Currituck Sound. Northerly winds quickly decrease Tuesday
afternoon as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.
Sub-SCA winds shift to the south Wednesday and then southwest
Thursday. A dry and weak cold front shifts the winds back to the
N Friday. Limited cold advection should preclude the need for
Small Craft Advisories behind this frontal passage. Seas
decrease to 2-3 ft Tuesday afternoon and then hover around 2 ft
for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ632-634-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW