Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

017
FXUS61 KAKQ 230752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
252 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Blizzard Warnings continue for the Eastern Shore.

-Winter headlines across interior VA have been adjusted to
 remove some of the Advisories and downgrade far western tier
 of the Warnings. Additional Adjustments maybe needed later this
 morning.

-Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended in time to include
 the afternoon high tide cycle and area to include eastern
 Currituck NC.

-Rain chances increase across the Northern Neck and an Eastern
 Shore Tuesday night. With better rain chances CWA wide
 Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong coastal low continues to impact the area this
morning and through most of the bay before moving further
offshore this evening.

2) A few showers are possible across the Northern Neck and
Eastern Shore late Tuesday night. into Wednesday Morning With
widespread showers likely late next week.

3) Elevated tides (high-end action to minor flood stage) linger
through today, mainly along the Atlantic coast and southern
shore of the Chesapeake Bay. In addition, large breaking waves
and high surf may contribute to beach erosion along the Atlantic
coast of Accomack and Worcester Counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong coastal low continues to impact the
area this morning and through most of the bay before moving
further offshore this evening.

Early morning weather analysis shows a strong trough that has
over taken the Mid-Atlantic region and has taken on a strong
negative tilt. At the surface, A strong coastal low pressure
system has undergone bomb cyclogenesis and is current sitting of
the Delmarva coast. This system is continuing to bringing windy
conditions and heavy snow showers especially across the Eastern
Shore where Blizzard Warnings remain in effect. Latest radar
scans and mesoanalysis are showing strong FGEN bands continuing
over the Eastern Shore this morning producing 1-2" hr snow rates
and perhaps 3" hr rates. These rates could easily produce
additional amounts of 4-6" of snow through this morning and into
the early afternoon. In addition to the snow, the pressure
gradient continues to remain strong causing windy conditions
which are leading to whiteout conditions and downed trees and
powerlines across the Eastern Shore. Some observations this
morning have shown 60mph winds across Ocean city and 45 mph
gusts across interior MD Eastern Shore.

Elsewhere, weak snow/rain showers are continuing across
interior Eastern, SE VA this morning. Given the marginal surface
temperatures (32-34F) snow accumulation struggled across much
of the area. Winter Weather headlines have not been changed
since 10pm last night as of this forecast update. This is due to
the lingering show showers across the area that could
accumulate where surface temperatures are around 32F. However,
if the snow/rain showers continue to dissolve by early this
morning headlines will most likely need to be changed. Similar
to the Eastern Shore breezy to windy conditions have been noted
interior, eastern, and SE VA this morning with 30 to 35 mph
gusts inland and 45 mph along the SE coast where Wind Advisories
are remaining in place through this morning.

Through the day and into this evening the low pressure will
continue to deepen but move further offshore. Conditions will
improve through the day as the low advances east. However,
breezy and windy conditions will prevail through the day with
30mph gusts inland and 35 mph along the coast. Models have
backed off on how long the precip will linger through the day
and most of the area will remain dry - portions of the Northern
Neck and Eastern SHore quire rain/snow showers could continue
through the afternoon and evening. Then by tonight skies will
clear and much colder temperatures are progged. Lows tonight
will drop into the low to middle 20s. This could result in any
water and slush on untreated surface to refreeze causing black
ice.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A few showers are possible across the Northern
Neck and Eastern Shore late Tuesday night. into Wednesday
Morning With widespread showers likely late next week.

A week shortwave will track far north of the region on Tuesday.
While at the surface a low pressure system is progged to move
across the Great Lakes region late Tuesday into Wednesday.
During the day Tuesday the region will remain dry and cool with
highs in the low to middle 40s across Va and NC and middle 30s
across the Eastern SHore. By late Tuesday night and into
Wednesday morning, the low will pass by to the north and help
bring a chance of showers across the Northern Neck and Eastern
Shore. Will note that some guidance has hinted on possible snow
showers however,, the cold air is not expected to be in place on
the confidence in snow showers is low. If any snow showers were
to happen no accumulation is expected. Late next week the 00z
guidance has hinted on wide spread showers across the area.
Recent GEFS and ECMWF probs for >.1" of rain are between 80-90%.
However, there is major disagreement in probs >.5" of QPF.
Nonetheless, confidence remains moderate in additional rain
chances by the end of the week.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Elevated tides (high-end action to minor flood
stage) linger through today, mainly along the Atlantic coast and
southern shore of the Chesapeake Bay. In addition, large
breaking waves and high surf may contribute to beach erosion
along the Atlantic coast of Accomack and Worcester Counties.

Swell from strong low pressure offshore will allow for tides to
continue to remain elevated for the afternoon high tide and
likely again with the overnight/early Tuesday high tide. The
best potential for minor flooding is mainly along the Atlantic
coast (from Maryland to North Carolina) and along the southern
shore of the Chesapeake Bay (Lynnhaven). Fortunately,
astronomical tides are at a lower point thus any flooding
remains nuisance to minor. Coastal Flood Advisories have been
extended to include the afternoon high tide cycle and expanded
to include eastern Currituck NC. Advisories will likely need to
extended in time to include the overnight/early Tuesday high
tide cycle as well.

Large breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet are being observed along
the coast, with the largest waves across the northern half of
the Eastern Shore. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for
Accomack and eastern Worcester Counties into this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1235 AM EST Monday...

Starting to see some improvement at most of the terminals with
the exception of SBY where moderate to heavy snow continues.
Seeing some lingering light rain/snow at the other terminals
with little in the way of vsby restrictions. Meanwhile at SBY,
expecting 1/2sm or less vsby for the bulk of the night as the
heavier snow bands pivot into the area. Should finally start to
see some improvement there as low pressure pulls away from the
coast mid-morning. CIGs have actually gone VFR at RIC and MVFR
prevails at PHF/ORF/ECG. Did tempo IFR CIGs for ECG since a
couple of BKN009 obs recently. SBY will keep the LIFR and IFR
CIGs longer and gradually improve through the day tomorrow. NW
winds gust 30-40kt overnight (highest at SBY), then remaining
breezy tomorrow with gusts around 30kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions return later Monday and persist through
the middle of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dangerous marine conditions develop continue into this
  afternoon due to gale to storm force winds and high seas.
  Winds then remain elevated to SCA levels into Tuesday.

- Another round of marginal SCA conditions is possible later
  Tuesday night into Wednesday and again later Thursday into
  Friday.

Very strong low pressure (~970mb) is located off the Delaware
Coast early this morning. Dangerous conditions continue over the
local waters, with NW winds gusting to 50 to 55 kt over the
northern coastal waters and 40 to 45 kt elsewhere. Seas have
rapidly increased to 8 to 15 ft and waves in the Chesapeake Bay
range from 4 to 6 ft (up to 7 ft at the mouth). Conditions are
likely their peak, with slowly improving conditions expected
later today. Storm Warnings (northern coastal waters) and Gale
Warnings (remainder of the waters) remain in effect.

Winds gradually diminish as we head through this morning and
afternoon as low pressure moves off to the northeast. Winds late
this afternoon will average NW to WNW 20 to 30 kt with gusts of
30 to 35 kt. Winds then remain elevated to similar speeds
through tonight and into Tuesday morning. SCAs will likely be
needed through Tuesday morning for the Chesapeake Bay, rivers,
and Currituck Sound and potentially into Tuesday evening for the
coastal waters (due to elevated seas). Another round of
marginal SCA conditions is possible late Tuesday night into
Wednesday and again later Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ021>025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
     MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
     NCZ102.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ102.
VA...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
     VAZ095-098>100.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ099.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ095-098-525.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ064-
     082-083-089-093-095>098-511-512-517-518-524-525.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     VAZ075>078-084>086-090-519>523.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>638-656-
     658.
     Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/HET
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB/RHR