Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

137
FXUS61 KAKQ 262352
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
752 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast update. No major forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer this afternoon with scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms.

2) Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend
with hot and humid weather expected, especially on Saturday.
Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures return early next
week.

3) A warming trend is expected by the middle of next week, with
more significant heat possible by later in the week heading
into the holiday weekend. Shower/thunderstorm chances remain
very low through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer this afternoon with scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Latest analysis reveals Bermuda surface high pressure still
centered well offshore, with zonal flow aloft east of the
Rockies. Temperatures at 18z are well into the 80s to low 90s
on breezy low-level S-SW flow. Two areas of showers have also
developed; the first to our W-NW in association with an
approaching shortwave trough, with decent agreement CAMs
continue to hint that showers and storms will continue to
focus along the lee/pre-frontal trough to our W/NW. The second
area of showers is across central and eastern NC along the
afternoon seabreeze, with these showers expected to weaken with
time as they push into SE VA through mid-late afternoon.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across
northeast NC into far SE VA through early evening. Given
relatively modest instability and weak shear, expect storms to
remain below severe limits for the most part, but some gusty
winds are possible. Meanwhile, chances for showers and storms
ramp up across northern and western portions of the area late
this afternoon, with isolated- scattered convection potentially
spreading E or SE during the early part of tonight before
diurnal weakening occurs. With the heat and humidity, a few
stronger storms capable of producing highly localized damaging
wind gusts cannot be ruled out, especially given increasing
500mb flow in advance of a shortwave trough to our NW. SPC has
maintained a Marginal Risk for severe storms (Level 1 out of 5)
across northern portions of the FA, including the Richmond
metro.

Given increasing moisture and with weak disturbances crossing
overnight, will maintain a low end chance for showers through
the night. Lows mainly in the 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances continue
through the weekend with hot and humid weather expected,
especially on Saturday. Dry weather and slightly cooler
temperatures return early next week.

The upper level flow gradually shifts from W to NW over the
weekend in response to strong ridging building upstream over the
Northern Plains. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves will drag a
cold front through the area late Sunday or Sunday night.
Convective timing and areal coverage of storms once again remain
conditional upon overnight and early morning upstream MCS
activity. High-res guidance continues to suggest that overnight
convection or at least stabilizing convective outflows/debris
cloudiness will track near or just north of the area Saturday
morning. This likely portends some lingering cloud cover and a
reinforced stable outflow pool across the northern half of the
FA, effectively delaying boundary layer destabilization and
maintaining a stronger convective capping inversion through much
of the day. Consequently, SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) across northern sections.

Farther south, minimal impacts over the southern half of the
area will allow for more in the way of sunshine, and subsequent
late day destabilization ahead of an approaching (stronger)
afternoon shortwave, which will trigger convection. A very warm
to hot and moderately humid airmass will drive DCAPE values into
the 1000-1500 J/kg range along and south of US-460 into SE VA
and eastern NC, making the southern half of the area a bit more
conducive to severe weather. For that reason, a Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 5) has been nudged SE slightly, but remains in place
south and east of a Lawrenceville-Wakefield-Newport News line,
including most of Hampton Roads and NE NC. Given decent W-WNW
flow aloft and 25-35 kt of 0-6km bulk shear, organized clusters
or line segments, capable of producing localized damaging wind
gusts will be the primary threat. Storm motions should generally
be progressive enough (15-20 kt) to limit the widespread flash
flood threat, though brief hydro issues cannot be ruled out if
convection coalesces over urban areas.

Convective coverage is expected to be a bit less on Sunday and
confined more to southern and western portions of the FA as the
front begins sinking south through the area and the low-level
flow becomes N-NE across northern portions of the FA. Though
once again, potential for damaging wind gusts persists across
Hampton Roads into NE NC, albeit a bit earlier in the day
through around sunset. Dry and fairly pleasant weather for the
end of June is expected on Monday, with temps in the mid- upper
80s and noticeably lower humidity as high pressure builds toward
the area from the NNE.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend is expected by the middle of
next week, with more significant heat possible by later in the
week heading into the holiday weekend. Shower/thunderstorm
chances remain very low through Wednesday.

Upper heights gradually rise for the latter half of the week
into the holiday weekend. Multi-model consensus continues to
show an anomalously strong heat ridge building E from the mid-
south toward the southeast coast late next week. This will lead
to a warming trend for the late week period. After seasonable
temps Tuesday, a pronounced warming trend develops with
temperatures well into the 90s to around 100F possible from
Wednesday-Friday (especially if the ridge builds farther east
and lingers toward the central Appalachians like the latest
ECMWF/EPS shows). It appears as if there is a decent chance for
105F+ heat indices across a decent portion of the area by late
next week as well.

However, it must be noted that local mid-Atlantic climatology
suggests that reaching air temps in the 95-100+F range requires
either deep boundary layer mixing or a strong downsloping
component, both of which would naturally mix out Td well below
the NBM values. In terms of rain chances, strong high pressure
overhead, plenty of sunshine, and dry, downslope flow do not
lend themselves to high rain chances. The only real opportunity
for showers and storms in this pattern would be with "ring of
fire" type convective complexes, and this keeps rain chances
quite low through the extended period. This will all be better
resolved as we get closer. The bottom line is that preparations
should be made now for another period of very warm to hot
temperatures/heat indices late next week into the 4th of July
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail as of 00z. However, there are some
isolated tstms W of ECG, which may produce some brief vsby
restriction through 01-02z. Otherwise, mainly VFR through 06z
with some isolated showers/tstms. A weak boundary settles in
from the N later tonight, and this has the potential to produce
some MVFR cigs Saturday morning (approximately 08-09z through
14-15z), with IFR cigs possible at RIC. There is a better chc of
showers/tstms by Saturday aftn. Confidence in timing is low.
However, periods of sub-VFR conditions are likely in any
showers/tstms. The wind will generally be light out of the S to
SW tonight through Saturday, and could shift to easterly along
the coast Saturday aftn. Any stronger tstms Saturday aftn could
produce some locally stronger wind gusts.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR cigs are possible once again late Saturday
night/early Sunday morning. Shower/tstm chances return Sunday
aftn (mainly S/SE terminals). Prevailing conditions will be VFR
outside of sub- VFR conditions in convection. VFR conditions are
expected to return by the beginning of next week and continue
through the middle of next week as high pressure builds S across
the area and then settles offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions expected into early next week, outside
  of any thunderstorm activity late today and again Saturday
  ahead of a weakening cold front.

Sfc high pressure centered near Bermuda is favoring a continuation
of sub-SCA conditions across our local waters today. S or SW 10-15
kt winds prevail through early Sunday as a slow-moving frontal
boundary approaches from the N. Briefly elevated winds are possible
this evening into early tonight, especially on the ocean, with a few
gusts to 20 kt likely. Otherwise, briefly higher winds and waves are
possible with any shower or storm today through Sunday. The front
drops into the waters Sunday morning, with winds shifting to the NE.
There isn`t much CAA to work with so winds are likely to remain
below SCA thresholds. The one caveat would be the solution depicted
by the NAM which shows a stronger low and tighter pressure gradient
Monday. If this were to occur, stronger NE winds would be realized
with widespread SCA conditions. Still, this is not favored at this
time. A typical summertime pattern is expected mid-late next week
with generally light flow, isolated afternoon/evening
thunderstorms, and hot temps.

Seas hover in the 2-3 ft range through most of the forecast period,
potentially up to 4 ft on the ocean tonight. Waves in the bay/rivers
sound of 1-2 ft or less. Have adjusted the rip current forecast to
"Low" for all beaches through the weekend. While just outside the
rip current forecast period, Monday could approach "Moderate" with 9-
10 sec periods and onshore flow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB/SW