Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

916
FXUS61 KAKQ 150530
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
130 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion.

Timing for morning showers tomorrow have trended slightly later,
and are mainly confined to northern sections.

The Friday night/Saturday cold front has also trended slightly
later, with cooler temperatures and higher rain chances
therefore now forecast Saturday morning.

A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the northern
nearshore coastal waters and the lower Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very warm, record breaking temperatures this afternoon
quickly give way to increasing clouds and a much cooler day
Thursday.

2) Warm and breezy Friday with a few gusty showers Friday night
into Saturday. Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm, record breaking temperatures this
afternoon quickly give way to increasing clouds and a much
cooler day Thursday.

Latest surface analysis reveals ~1020 mb surface high pressure
centered over the western Atlantic. To the north, a wavy front
remains draped over the northern mid-Atlantic into New England.
To the west, a chilly 1024+ mb high is centered over the
Northern Plains, and will push into the Upper Midwest by this
evening. Aloft, an upper ridge centered over the west-central
Gulf coast extends into the local area. The rising heights are
allowing unseasonable warmth across the region. Upstream, a
closed low over the Four Corners region will be absorbed into a
northern stream trough which will drop across the Canadian
Prairies tonight into tomorrow. It is this system which will
bring sharply colder air to the region this weekend.

Locally, temperatures are well into the 80s to around 90 at 19z.
Several local records for the date have already been broken.
These have been included below for reference.

High pressure to the north will slowly build across the Great
Lakes and New England tonight and early Thursday, slowly pushing
the front to the north closer to the area. That front will
cross into the region Thu morning. Clouds will increase
overnight, with mostly cloudy conditions then persisting through
tomorrow evening. A few showers could accompany the front as it
pushes into the area late tonight, but the frontal passage
should be mainly dry.

The surface high ridges down the eastern slope of the
Appalachians Thursday, allowing a CAD wedge to develop. High-res
guidance continues to trend cooler for tomorrow and highs have
been nudged slightly down given the persistent overcast
conditions and chilly NE flow. Weak isentropic lift across the
northern zones will primarily reinforce the developing stratus,
it could also allow for some light sprinkles or light rain
tomorrow morning. Highs near and south of the VA/NC line will
rise back into the 70s to near 80 with clouds being a bit
thinner and slower to arrive. Farther north, especially N of
I-64, temperatures will follow a non-diurnal temperature curve
with highs realized in the morning or by midday before leveling
off or even falling off slightly.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm and breezy Friday with a few gusty showers
Friday night into Saturday. Much cooler temperatures arrive
this weekend.

The Canadian deep upper trough is forecast to dig across the
Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday with a strengthening
surface low over the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow ahead of this
feature will allow the front to lift back northward as a warm
front Friday morning. High temps rebound into the low 80s N with
mid and upper 80s S. It will become breezy out of the SW by
Friday afternoon. A rapidly deepening low pressure will
translate NE into New England on Friday with a strong cold front
extending back to the southwest. This front will cross the
local area late Friday evening into early Saturday with
significant cold advection moving into the region. Trends from
the past few cycles of probabilistic guidance, along with the
ECMWF/CMC deterministic runs are favoring a stronger shortwave
trough which digs farther south into the mid-Atlantic. This
results in a slightly slower progression of the front late
Friday night and Saturday. While QPF remains light steep low-
level lapse rates and vigorous momentum transfer could mix down
35-40 mph gusts to the surface fairly easily coincident with the
frontal passage. Otherwise, while favorable kinematics support
storm organization, meager moisture/instability and now later
nocturnal timing all significantly limit severe potential beyond
the previously referenced gusty frontal wind threat.

Strong (1035mb+) high pressure builds into the region behind the
front with upper troughing remaining over the eastern CONUS,
resulting in well below normal temperatures this weekend. Given
the delayed timing and subsequent onset of cold advection, Sat
highs are also likely to be realized early in the day. Afternoon
temps likely remain more or less steady even with gradual
clearing, with upper 50s to low 60s S/SE. It will also remain
quite breezy on Saturday with gusts 25-30 mph, and especially
near the coast where winds could gust 30-35 mph. Overnight low
temps tumble into the mid to upper 30s in the Piedmont with low
to mid 40s for the remainder of the area Saturday night. Upper
30s and low 40s are forecast Sunday night into Monday. Some
frost is possible in the Piedmont with this airmass, especially
if temps continue to trend toward the cooler MOS guidance which
shows temps in the low 30s in the typically cooler spots.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions start the 06z/15 TAF period. A cold front is
currently dropping south across the region with increasing
clouds and northerly winds behind the boundary. Some light
returns are noted on radar across the far northern counties but
have decreased in coverage and intensity over the last hour or
so. Clouds will continue to spread south and thicken/lower
toward sunrise. MVFR CIGs likely at RIC around 12z, spreading
south and east to PHF, ORF, and ECG in the 15-16z timeframe. SBY
sees MVFR by this afternoon along with a chance for light
rainfall. RIC will also likely see some rain but lower
confidence in timing/coverage. The remaining terminals are
forecast to stay dry but a shower or two may impact PHF. Winds
become NE this morning and increase to 5-10 kt inland and 10-15
kt with gusts 15-20 kt at PHF and ORF by mid morning. Low-end
MVFR CIGs this afternoon will approach IFR thresholds early this
evening with IFR forecast late in the period.

Outlook: The front will briefly lift back north of the area
Friday, allowing a return to VFR conditions. Breezy SW winds
develop by late morning and persist through the day.
Deteriorating flying conditions return later Fri evening through
Sat evening as a second, stronger cold front crosses the area.
Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected Sat
morning into the afternoon post-frontal.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- NE winds increase behind a backdoor cold front Thursday.
  Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the coastal waters
  N of Cape Charles and the lower Chesapeake Bay.

- A longer-duration wind event is likely along and behind a strong
  cold front beginning later Friday, potentially lingering
  through most of the weekend. NNW winds will likely frequently
  gust over 34 kt for a period of time.

High pressure is centered south of the area this afternoon. Winds
across the local waters are generally light out of the S-SW, but
have become locally variable near the coast of S VA where a weak sea
breeze is attempting to develop. Quick changes are coming late
tonight into Thursday as a backdoor cold front drops southward, with
an abrupt shift in winds to the NE -- first across the N just before
sunrise and then by mid-late morning across the S. Wind speeds are
also forecast to increase to 15-20 kt. The highest confidence in
gusts to 25 kt are in the southern Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters
N of the NC/VA border. These NE wind events also tend to lead to
higher seas than forecast by the numerical wave guidance, so am
currently expecting seas to peak in the 4-5 ft range N of Cape
Charles. Therefore, issued a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal
waters N of Cape Charles for those higher seas and ~25 kt gusts and
for the lower Chesapeake Bay for 20-25 kt gusts and 2-4 ft waves.
These higher winds will be rather short-lived, gradually diminishing
later in the day on Thursday. SCAs are in effect through the early
afternoon hours. The front will lift back N as a warm front Thursday
night/early Friday morning with winds quickly becoming S-SW by
Friday.

By later Friday, low pressure is forecast to track into interior New
England, with a sharp cold front extending SW. This front is still
expected to pass through the area in the Friday-Saturday timeframe.
However, there has been some changes in the model guidance over the
past 12-24 hrs, including a trend toward a later frontal passage and
a longer duration in the elevated N/NNW winds. The peak winds now
look to occur during the day Saturday, but could certainly extend
into the Saturday night and Sunday timeframe. The 12z ECMWF and NAM
also now depict sfc cyclogenesis offshore of the OBX Sunday and the
low lingers offshore through Monday on the ECMWF. Should this occur,
marine impacts could be more significant and/or longer than
currently depicted in the forecast. Suffice to say there is low
confidence in the specifics during this period and users and
encouraged to keep updated on forecast updates over the next couple
of days. Regardless, Gale headlines seem quite likely at some point,
but will continue to hold off on any watches due to the later timing
and aforementioned confidence reasons. Seas are also expected to
increase substantially and could possibly exceed 6-9 ft. Winds/seas
should begin to gradually subside after Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for ANZ632-634-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...SW
CLIMATE...