Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

537
FXUS61 KAKQ 040715
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
315 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances have increased today mainly along and south of
I-64.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak front and surface low lift slowly back to the north today,
bringing greater coverage of showers and storms to the region.
Locally heavy rainfall is the primary hazard.

2) Convective coverage is expected to decrease Wednesday and
especially during the late week period with warmer temperatures
returning to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak front and surface low lift slowly back to the
north today, bringing greater coverage of showers and storms to the
region. Locally heavy rainfall is the primary hazard.

Morning analysis shows a weak stationary front draped across the
region from near South Hill northeastward into the MD Eastern Shore.
Aloft, a closed low is noted to the SW of the area in central GA.
Deep southerly flow on the eastern flank of the upper low continues
to funnel moisture northward into the Carolinas and along the
stalled frontal boundary. PW values are 2.2-2.4" across eastern NC
but taper to around 1.75" along the boundary. Some showers with
occasional thunder have been persistent along and west of the I-85
corridor this morning. These showers should linger for a few more
hours before dissipating.

A subtle shortwave trough embedded in the upper level southerly
flow will spawn a weak surface low in central NC early this
morning. The low and attendant front are forecast to lift slowly
northward through the day with increasing chances for showers
and storms expected, mainly along and south of the boundary.
Increasing deep layer moisture spreads back to the north as well
with the 00z HREF showing fairly impressive 30-50% probs for
3"/3 hours, mainly centered along and east of I-95 and south of
I-64 this afternoon. Contemplated issuing a small Flood Watch
for these areas but recent rainfall has largely spared this
region with 3 hour flash flood guidance generally in the 3-4"
range. However, given the deep moisture, weak flow aloft, and
tall/skinny instability profiles noted on forecast soundings,
the potential for localized areas of flash flooding is apparent,
especially in urban/poor drainage areas. WPC has maintained
Marginal ERO for the entire area today. The weak winds aloft
combined with widespread clouds will limit shear/instability and
the chance for severe weather across the region today and
tonight. Temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 80s with
cloud cover and showers/storms lingering into tonight. Warm and
very muggy overnight with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Convective coverage is expected to decrease
Wednesday and especially late week into the weekend with warmer
temperatures returning to the area.

00z guidance has trended downward with respect to convective
coverage on Wednesday. Isolated showers/storms are possible but not
expecting widespread severe or flooding issues. With fewer clouds
and showers around, temperatures will rebound into the mid and upper
80s on Wednesday. Precip coverage is expected to further decrease
late week into the weekend as the upper trough to the west lifts
northward and away from the area. Slight chance PoPs each day are
mostly confined to western portions of the region in the afternoon
and early evening hours. With lower shower and storm coverage,
temperatures return into the upper 80s and low 90s Thursday through
Sunday. Afternoon heat index values climb back into the upper 90s
and low 100s late week into the weekend. While apparent temps may
briefly creep into Heat Advisory range (105+) in the afternoon, am
not expecting the need for heat headlines at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

A mix of flying conditions is in place this morning with a weak
stationary front across the region. A few showers and storms
have persisted overnight, mainly across SW portions of the area
but away from the main terminals. Guidance shows increasing
coverage of MVFR CIGs spreading northward as weak low pressure
develops across central NC and lifts northward with the front.
Increasing coverage of showers and storms will lift northward
along and ahead of the front/low this afternoon. Confidence is low
with respect to coverage and exact timing of convection at any
one terminal so have limited afternoon MVFR/-TSRA to PROB30
groups for now. Generally light winds this morning will become
NE 5-10 kt north of the front and SE 5-10 kt in the wake of the
boundary. Precip lingers into the overnight period with
localized flight restrictions likely to accompany the heavier
showers/storms.


Outlook: Shower/storm chances continue through mid- week, with
periodic flight restrictions lingering, mainly from early
morning stratus, and brief visibility restrictions in heavy
rain. A more typical Summer pattern returns for the latter half
of the week, with a somewhat lower coverage of late afternoon
and evening isolated to scattered showers and storms Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail from late tonight
  through late week, outside of local thunderstorm influences.

Expansive high pressure is currently centered east of Bermuda and
extends across the western North Atlantic. Another high has built
down across the Eastern U.S. behind a stationary front draped across
our area. The gradient between these two features is weak and marine
observation sites are measuring winds of generally 5 kts or less
from the S-SW. There are some showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the south, but the local waters are not currently seeing any
convective development this morning. Seas have been a little slower
to come down, but are currently around 3-4 ft in the nearshore
coastal waters and 1-3 ft (highest at the mouth of the Bay), so all
SCAs have been allowed to expire.

The aforementioned front will sag a little farther south over the
next few hours and the northern coastal waters and Middle Bay will
likely see winds increase to 5-10 kts and shift to the NE briefly.
Through the afternoon, the front will lift slowly back to the north
and winds will shift back to the SE-S by tonight. As the front lifts
across the local waters, scattered to widespread showers and storms
will develop. The front will linger across the area through
Wednesday before starting to wash out. Locally degraded marine
conditions are likely to accompany the stronger storms through mid-
week, mainly in the form of VSBY restrictions in heavy rain and
frequent lightning, but some localized gusty winds and confused seas
will also be possible. As the front washes out, weak high pressure
will rebuild over the area, then slide offshore for late week. A
more typical summer setup resumes, with Sub-SCA S-SW winds ~10-15 kt
developing, turning S-SE nearshore with seabreeze circulations each
afternoon. Daily afternoon and evening shower and storm chances
persist into the weekend, though chances gradually diminish beyond
Wednesday.

Rip Currents: There is a Moderate Rip risk for the northern beaches
today with a Low Rip Risk for southern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM/NB