Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

944
FXUS61 KAKQ 151051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
651 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook area has been refined a
  bit for Sunday. Increasing chances for showers and storms
  presenting both a severe and flood risk for Sunday afternoon
  and evening

- Probabilities for Heat headlines have increased slightly over
  southern tier of counties, from Hampton Roads into Northeast
  NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Not quite as warm today, with isolated late day showers and
storms possible. Becoming more unsettled tomorrow, with more
widespread showers and storms likely. A few storms could be
strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
localized flooding as the main threats.

2) Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of the next
cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Not quite as warm today, with isolated late day
showers and storms possible. Becoming more unsettled tomorrow,
with more widespread showers and storms likely. A few storms
could be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and localized flooding as the main threats.

Latest analysis reveals a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary just north of the VA/NC border, extending W/NW into S
WV/N KY. To the north, 1022+mb sfc high pressure centered over
the Eastern Great Lakes region will nudge this front farther
south as it sags into the region later today. Light E-NE flow
ushers in a slightly cooler and drier airmass, with highs today
in the mid to upper 80s. Would expect most areas to remain dry
today. However, the boundary dropping south of the region could
again be the focus for isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms, with a better chance for storms south of US-460 in south
central VA into NE NC. A few showers will be possible tonight
in association with remnants from decaying Ohio Valley MCS
activity. Otherwise, warm and muggy with lows in the low to mid
70s.

On Sunday, the expansive ridge over the southern tier of the
country begins to break down, as another shortwave trough digs
across the Ohio Valley. Return southerly flow brings hot
temperatures and tropical moisture right back into the region
Sunday and Monday. PW values climb back up over 2-2.25" Sunday,
with highs warming back into the low to mid 90s (heat indices
max out ~100F). Improved forcing for ascent ahead of the trough
will likely trigger scattered to numerous afternoon/evening
showers and storms. High PW and strong moisture transport will
support water loaded downdrafts capable of producing strong to
locally severe wind gusts. SPC has added a Slight Risk for
Severe Storms for much of the area Sunday, with a Marginal Risk
over MD counties and for VA south of US-58 into northeast NC.
Additionally, slow- moving or back- building storms present
another flash flood threat, once again especially for flood
prone, poor drainage, and urban areas. WPC has maintained a
Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook over the MD Eastern
Shore, with a Marginal Risk over all but out far SW tier of
counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday
ahead of the next cold front.

The hot, humid conditions look to peak on Monday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Highs in the low to mid 90s are
forecast, which combined with elevated humidity will likely
necessitate additional Heat Advisories for at least our
southern/southeastern counties. Scattered showers and storms are
also expected Monday afternoon/evening along the frontal
boundary. Drier and slightly cooler conditions arrive Tuesday
into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

Patchy fog and stratus/SC at RIC/PHF/SBY should scatter out by
12-13z (8-9am). A weak front is now south of KECG which will
allow for light NE winds at all terminals today, becoming E
late this afternoon. Scattered aftn/evening showers/storms will
be possible, mainly south of KRIC, but a PROB30 has been
included at KECG, with showers expected to be most numerous
along the front, as it sinks south of the area.

Outlook: More widespread showers are forecast for Sunday
afternoon through early Monday, bringing the potential for
occasional sub- VFR conditions. Lower shower/storm chances
Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday
afternoon.

- Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions could develop as
southerly flow increases Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through most of the
weekend. A frontal boundary will push south of the local waters
early this morning, with a NE or E wind direction persisting through
much of today. Wind speeds will generally be at or below 10 kt. Seas
around 2 ft. Winds will be easterly tonight and then S-SE Sunday as
a warm front lifts north through the area. A period of elevated
winds is expected in southerly flow by Sunday evening into Monday
morning and winds may reach SCA thresholds for a time. Thereafter,
light winds (10 kt or less) is generally favored Monday afternoon
through the middle of next week. Seas briefly increase to 3-4 ft
with the elevated south winds Sunday night/Monday morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...AJZ/SW