Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

070
FXUS61 KAKQ 121139
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
639 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Full discussion updated. No significant changes, though shower
chances have increased a bit more for this afternoon.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
starting late this evening and for the northern coastal waters
starting early Friday morning.

Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A series of cold fronts bring the potential for two waves of
isolated to scattered showers today. Otherwise, mild temperatures
remain through this afternoon with dropping temperatures late.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive Friday into early next week with
below freezing overnight temperatures likely inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A series of cold fronts bring the potential for two
waves of isolated to scattered showers today. Otherwise, mild
temperatures remain through this afternoon with dropping
temperatures late.

Fairly quiet weather-wise across the forecast area this morning.
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows some passing mid-high
clouds, though they should scatter out over the next few hours.
Observations near the coast of ern/SE VA and NE NC also depict some
patchy ground fog. This is likely due to the higher dew points and
calm winds. Most guidance does not develop widespread fog and the
current thinking is it remains patchy through sunrise.

A large upper trough and associated sfc low and cold front will
bring the potential for a few rounds of isolated to widely scattered
showers today. The first round, where PoPs are 20-30%, occurs this
morning with an initial vorticity lobe and shortwave aloft. The late
morning and early afternoon hours then look to be dry for most.
Clouds are also expected to briefly scatter out during this time,
allowing for one last day of mild temps. Forecast highs are
generally in the mid to upper 60s, with a few ~70 F readings
possible in SE VA and NE NC. The second round of showers follows
along the cold front late this afternoon and evening. This is when a
few heavier/stronger cores could develop given steep lapse rates and
cool temps aloft. This combination allows for up to ~500 J/kg of sfc-
based CAPE. In addition, can`t rule out some sporadic lightning
strikes or small hail in the heaviest cores. The best potential for
this late-day activity is from the nrn Piedmont into the nrn
portions of the RIC metro, the Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore.
However, slight chc PoPs extend roughly to the NC/VA border. These
showers won`t be efficient rainfall producers and still don`t expect
much in the way of measurable rainfall. Totals up to a tenth of an
inch are possible, but this would be highly localized. Gusty NW
winds overspread the area late tonight into early Friday behind the
fronts. Overnight lows generally in the mid 40s and, despite the
cold advection, went a few degrees above the NBM given the likely-
mixed BL and lingering clouds.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive Friday into early
next week with below freezing overnight temperatures likely inland.

An anomalously strong (-2 to -3 st dev) upper trough settles over
the area Friday into the weekend. Following the initial push of cold
advection behind the cold front, this trough will allow for chilly
temps at least through early next week. Highs Friday range from the
low-mid 50s N/NW to mid-upper 50s S/SE, under partly and mostly
sunny skies, respectively. The coolest night of the season so far is
likely on the way Friday night, though there is some disagreement
across the guidance on exactly how cold it gets. Most of the hi-res
and statistical corrections show widespread lows in the low-mid 30s,
while the NBM is chillier. A continuing N-NW wind, especially near
the coast, could prevent ideal radiating conditions from developing.
Regardless if widespread readings below freezing occur, it`ll still
be quite chilly given the breeze. There is not enough confidence in
any Freeze Watches for Friday night at this time. Highs Saturday
will be more typical of winter, with temps only peaking the in the
low-mid 50s. Portions of the lower MD Eastern Shore could struggle
to get out of the 40s. Continued cold advection, a compressed
pressure gradient, and a well-mixed BL will allow for gusty NW winds
for most of the day...to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph near the
coast and on the Eastern Shore.

The coolest overnight temps are expected Saturday and Sunday nights.
This is when widespread (away from the immediate coast) overnight
freezes are likely. Lows inland generally in the upper 20s to lower
30s, with mid to upper 30s at the immediate coast. Freeze Watches
(and eventually Freeze Warnings) are likely for localities still in
the growing season during this period, though it`s a bit early to
issue these being mostly >48 hrs out. Daytime highs Sunday into
early next week look to remain in the 50s with potentially a modest
warming trend by mid-late week. Despite the cool temps, there should
be plenty of sunshine. Winds also gradually relax, but remain a bit
breezy near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 640 AM EST Thursday...

Patchy FG and BR should clear by 13z or so. A batch of BKN-OVC
mid-high clouds moves through over the next few hrs, with an
isolated shower possible at RIC and SBY w/ this activity.
Otherwise, skies may clear some late this morning into the first
part of the afternoon. Then, a strong cold front crosses the
area this evening. Another (brief) round of showers is possible
this afternoon/evening at RIC/SBY, with lower (but nonzero)
chances at PHF and ORF. Could see brief MVFR or IFR VSBY
restrictions with this second round of showers before conditions
improve to VFR by Friday morning. However, guidance does hint
at MVFR CIGs at SBY after ~06z. Winds today become WSW/W ~10 kt
with gusts up to 15-20 kt late this afternoon and evening. Winds
remain W ~10 kt tonight into Friday morning.

Outlook: VFR from Friday through the weekend with gusty NW
winds behind the cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions develop tonight over the Bay,
  and are likely over most of the marine area Friday afternoon
  and evening through much of the weekend.

- The strongest northwest winds are expected Saturday afternoon
  into Saturday night. A few gusts to Gale Force are possible
  over the offshore waters during this same period.

Latest obs showing S-SE winds 5-10 kt over the waters early this
morning. Waves 1 ft, seas 1-2 ft. Conditions deteriorate late
tonight into Friday, as a cold front approaches from the west this
afternoon, and crosses the waters this evening. Winds veer around to
the S-SW today, gradually increasing this afternoon and peaking this
evening in the immediate wake of the front. On the coastal waters,
gusts to 25-30 kt and building wind waves late tonight into Friday
morning will drive seas up into the 3-5 ft range north of
Chincoteague. SCA have been issued for our northern waters for
Friday. Meanwhile, SCA have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
tonight into Friday afternoon/early evening, ending first over the
lower bay as the pressure gradient slowly and briefly slackens.
However, that lull will be short-lived, as another dry front crosses
later Friday into Saturday, with a prolonged period of SCA
conditions then expected from Friday night through much of the
weekend, as cold air advection and a re-tightening pressure gradient
result in gusty northwest winds. The strongest winds are currently
forecast from Saturday through Saturday night, with northwest winds
of 20 to 25 knots and gusts to 30 knots across much of the waters.
Occasional gusts to 35 knots are possible out across the outer
coastal waters, mainly out 50-60 nm.

The latest 00z/12 GFS and ECMWF remain in fairly good agreement,
showing peak 925 mb winds generally around 25 to 30 knots Saturday.
Additionally, ensemble probabilities for gale force gusts continue
to steadily decrease compared to previously runs. Notably, the EPS
(which had been the highest) trended down to ~20-30% for the far
outer coastal waters. While a few gale force gusts remain possible,
confidence in frequent gale conditions is low, with widespread SCA
conditions the far more likely outcome.

The pressure gradient remains compressed into Sunday, with SCA
conditions likely to linger through Sunday morning and potentially
into Sunday afternoon before winds/seas gradually subside. Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed with subsequent forecast
packages for most of the waters from Friday afternoon/evening well
into the upcoming weekend. Winds veer around to the NNW early next
week, with waves/seas also subsiding below SCA thresholds by later
Sun night into Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Friday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...ERI/SW
MARINE...MAM