Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

248
FXUS61 KAKQ 252335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
735 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00z TAF/Aviation update

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable humidity
continue through Wednesday.

2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable
humidity continue through Wednesday.

Latest wx analysis shows an upper level trough across the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast regions with surface level high pressure over
the area. Pleasant conditions are noted with temperatures in the
lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and mostly
sunny skies. High pressure will remain over the area tonight and
begin pushing offshore Wednesday, which will allow pleasant
conditions again tonight with lows in the lower 60s inland and upper
60s along the coast (a few upper 50s may be observed in the
piedmont). Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow with
highs in the upper 80s, as the high pressure begins moving offshore
shifting the winds out of the S. Dewpoints will increase as well,
but overall, humidity levels will remain tolerable for August.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled conditions return mid to late week
with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Global models indicate that surface high pressure settles off the
Southeast coast later Wednesday into Thursday and the flow aloft
shifts back to the SW. A few showers/tstms could creep into western
portions of the area late Wednesday evening. A slow moving front
approaches the area Thursday bringing the best chance for
showers/storms on Thursday and Friday. The severe threat seems low
at this time for both days from weaker upper flow (500 mb flow
around 20-25 kt). Showers are possible in the mornings both days,
which could further hinder the severe threat. However, if precip can
hold off until the afternoon hours a few stronger tstms are
possible, especially given that our local area will be under the RRQ
of a strengthening jet core over New England. The main threat will
be locally heavy rain from showers/tstms. WPC maintains a Marginal
Risk of excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday, but given the setup,
the showers/storms seem scattered by nature causing a lower
confidence in flooding. The consensus amongst the 12z/25 models
pushes the front S Saturday with the best shower/tstm chances across
SE VA/NE NC, then trending drier Sunday/Monday with PoPs near to
slightly below climo.

Seasonally hot and humid Thursday through Sunday with high
temperatures primarily in the mid 80s, and potentially trending
above average into the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals this evening will prevail
through the 00z/26 TAF period. Winds become light and variable
overnight, gradually becoming S-SE winds 5-10 kt by late Wed
morning into mid-afternoon.

Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through
Wednesday night. Shower/tstm chances return Thursday through
Saturday with brief sub-VFR conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly benign marine conditions expected through the forecast
  period.

- Watching for a brief period of Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake
  Bay Wednesday evening into early Thursday as southerly winds
  increase for a time.

High pressure building across the marine area will allow winds to
continue to relax heading into the late afternoon and evening hours.
Light and variable winds are expected tonight with high pressure in
control. The high shifts offshore Wednesday and winds are forecast
to become southerly in response. A 6-9 hr period of southerly winds
gusting to 20-25 kt is possible late Wednesday into early Thursday
morning, which could necessitate marginal Small Craft Advisories in
the Chesapeake Bay. Winds then become S 10-15 kt Thursday and then S-
SW 5-10 kt Friday. Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected for the
upcoming weekend. Seas average 2-3 ft Wednesday-Sunday. The chance
for tstms is very low until Thursday-Friday.

Rip Currents: A 10-12 sec long-period (but weak) swell will
combine with the short-period wind swell from the northerly
winds today. With nearshore waves nearing 2-3 ft, will have a
Moderate rip current risk for VA Beach and the northern OBX.
Expect a low risk elsewhere and a low risk at all beaches
Wednesday. A Moderate risk is possible at the northern beaches
by Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...KMC/MAM
MARINE...JDM/SW