Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

485
FXUS61 KAKQ 291108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
708 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- 12z aviation update

- Added PoPs this aftn in the piedmont, otherwise no
  significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Following a brief period with seasonable temperatures through
Tuesday, a major heat wave is likely beginning Wednesday, peaking
Thursday through Saturday, before breaking down later next weekend.
This has the potential to be the most significant in both magnitude
and duration since July 2012 for most of the CWA. Shower/thunderstorm
chances remain very low through Friday morning.

2) Temperatures gradually trend closer to normal late in the Holiday
weekend and beyond, along with a more unsettled pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Relatively seasonable and dry Monday and Tuesday with high
pressure building down from New England. Highs in the low-mid
80s Monday and upper 80s-lower 90s Tuesday, under a mostly sunny
sky.


KEY MESSAGE 1...Following a brief period with seasonable
temperatures through Tuesday, a major heat wave is likely
beginning Wednesday, peaking Thursday through Saturday, before
breaking down later next weekend. This has the potential to be
the most significant in both magnitude and duration since July
2012 for most of the CWA. Shower/thunderstorm chances remain
very low through Friday morning.

The latest analysis indicates a weak frontal boundary now S of
the local area pushing into southern NC). However, with the
amplifying upper level ridge off to the WSW, upper level flow
has become northwesterly with some additional shortwaves
droppingthrough. A lot of low level moisture and relatively
light flow has led to low stratus and patchy fog. There are
even a few light rain showers across metro RIC, though expect
most of this to diminish by sunrise. Temperatures are mostly in
the low 70s. Drier air gradually pushes down from the north
later today, but the NE low level flow will tend to keep a lot
of clouds around through late morning/early aftn. A shortwave,
currently across MI/OH is forecast to move SE, passing through
the region this aftn and offshore this evening. Have added some
low chc PoPs across the piedmont as this occurs this aftn. Highs
today will be near to a little below average, ranging from the
upper 70s/lower 80s at the immediate coast to the mid/upper 80s
well inland. Relatively pleasant tonight with lows in the mid
60s to lower 70s. Trending warmer Tuesday, but still seasonable
and dry with highs mid 80s to around 90F.

An impactful heat wave is then begins Wednesday, and peaks Thu-
Sat. Ensembles have remained consistent at building an
anomalously strong upper ridge from the TN/lower OH Valley
Tuesday, slowly drifting E-NE to the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic Thu-Fri, and slowly breaking down from the north
over the Holiday weekend. While there remain some subtle differences
in the precise location, confidence is high that this setup
will lead to a significant heat wave for the local area,
potentially the most widespread and of longest duration since
July 2012. Given a strong consensus for H5 heights >595 dm and
850 mb temps of 21-23C, highs at or above 100 F are likely,
especially Thursday through Saturday. The NBM remains a few
degrees above all deterministic and statistical model guidance,
so continue to shave a degree or two off these values. With
temperatures this high, do expect dew points to mix out quite a
bit inland. This could put a cap on the higher- end heat index
scenarios, but we are still likely to be near Extreme Heat
Warning criteria. The weak sfc pressure gradient will also tend
to allow for some aftn seabreeze development, locally bringing
steady or falling late day temperatures for the immediate coast.
However, these slightly lower temperatures at the immediate
coast will be coupled with higher dew points. Therefore, heat
indices in these areas are likely to be similar, or even higher,
than inland locations. Regardless, the latest forecast shows
heat indices of 105-110 F fairly widespread for Thursday through
Saturday (with pockets of 110+ possible). The general trend is
that the northern areas of the CWA will probably be the hottest
Thu-Fri, and the southern areas peak Fri-Sat. Regarding any
potential headlines, it remains a bit too early to refine down
the exact details. It does appear that a Heat Advisory might be
needed for inland/northern portions of the area Wednesday (while
S/SE areas will tend to see peak heat indices at or below
100F). Extreme Heat headlines will likely be needed the
following days. We will take another look at this in the
forthcoming forecast updates, though confidence is quite high in
eventually needing Extreme Heat Watches for at least the
Thursday-Friday timeframe (potentially lingering into Saturday).
Also confidence is generally higher in the temperature forecast
and somewhat lower in the dew pt/apparent T forecast given most
cases with 100+ temps tend to see dew pts briefly fall at peak
heating, especially farther inland. Either way, the bottom line
is that preparations should be made now for a period of very hot
temperatures/heat indices late next week.

The only real opportunity for showers and storms in this pattern
would be with seabreeze-initited convection along the coast. These
large heat domes also bring a risk of "ring of fire" type convective
complexes, i.e., thunderstorm clusters riding the northern periphery
of the ridge. However, with the heat ridge centered over
western VA/eastern KY, this does not appear very likely. PoPs
are negligible Wednesday and Thursday, with 15-30% PoPs by late
Friday as the ridge starts to break down and seabreeze
convection becomes increasingly likely. This will all be better
resolved as we get closer.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures gradually trend closer to normal
late in the Holiday weekend and beyond, along with a more
unsettled pattern.

The ensembles are in decent agreement that the ridge starts to
break down late Friday/Sat, with reinforcing troughing/shortwaves
gradually turning the flow aloft to the W-NW late in the
weekend and beyond. It looks like a slow process, so temperatures
likely stay above normal through Sunday but with higher chances
for aftn/evening tstms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

A frontal boundary has pushed S of the area, but with a light NE
flow and residual low level moisture, IFR-MVFR flight restrictions
prevail early this morning, and there are even a few light
showers across central VA. CIGs and VSBYs will be slow to improve
with IFR-MVFR CIGs likely continuing through ~13-15Z,
potentially lingering longer across the SE. VFR conditions
return all areas after 18Z, with SCT-BKN cumulus. NE winds will
average 5-10 kt inland, and 10-15 kt for ORF/ECG. Light winds
tonight and mainly VFR with some patchy fog possible between
midnight and sunrise Tue.


Outlook:  VFR conditions will continue through most of this
week as high pressure builds S across the area and then settles
offshore. Other than isolated showers/storms, mostly dry
conditions are expected through the upcoming week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through much of
the week.

- Moderate Rip Risk for all beaches today.

Latest morning weather analysis shows a weak cold front becoming
stationary south of the waters. Winds are remaining light (less than
10kt) out of the NE. Seas are also remaining low with waves around 1-
2ft across the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Through the morning
and into the evening tonight winds will increase out of the NE as a
high pressure strengthens and moves over New England and eventually
offshore. Winds will increase to around 10kt across the bay and 10-
15kt with gusts around 20 kt across the ocean. With the increase in
winds expect seas to build to 3-4ft across the near shore zones (0-
20NM). While offshore (20-60NM) seas will build to 4-5ft. At this
time not expecting 5ft seas to move into the nearshore zones.
However, if 5ft seas were to build in the nearshore zones, they
would most likely occur in the two southern zones. The NE winds
will continue through this evening and into tomorrow but will
decrease with winds sustained around 10kt. By tomorrow afternoon, a
front will pass through the area allowing winds to shift out of the
SE. These winds again will remain light around 10 kt. Looking ahead
no hazardous marine conditions are expected as strong high pressure
remains in control bringing hot temperatures across all waters.



Rip Currents: Continued with Moderate Rips for all beaches today due
to onshore flow and 9-10 sec periods. For Tuesday, low rips are
forecasted for the northern beaches and moderate for the south due
to onshore flow and waves around 3ft. Will note that there is a
possibility of high rip risk for tomorrow across the southern
beaches. This would be due to the possibility of waves being around
4ft or higher. There is also the possibility of Moderate rips across
the northern beaches and that would be because of the wave direction
being more shore normal. However, confidence is both the potential
upgrades are low at this time. By Wednesday low rips are forecasted
for all beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs later next week:

- Site:    Wed 7/1    Thu 7/2    Fri 7/3    Sat 7/4

- RIC:     102/1945   100/1953   100/1954   100/2002
- ORF:     100/1901   100/1901    99/1954    98/1997
- SBY:      98/2012    99/2014    98/1954   100/1919
- ECG:     101/2012    97/1953    98/1954   100/1997

Record High Mins later next week:

- Site:  Thu 7/2    Fri 7/3    Sat 7/4

- RIC:    76/2014    77/2014    77/1900
- ORF:    78/2018    78/2014    79/2012
- SBY:    77/1968    76/2014    78/2012
- ECG:    76/2014    78/2014    78/2012

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/SW
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...HET
CLIMATE...LKB