Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

272
FXUS61 KAKQ 010653
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Discussion. No major changes to the forecast. Small
Craft Advisories have been extended into Tuesday for much of
the marine area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is a chance for showers and a few storms across
southeastern portions of the area this afternoon. Temperatures
remain below average into midweek.

2) A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the
weekend.

3) A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for bay-side
portions of the MD Eastern Shore and along the southern shore
Potomac River where nuisance tidal flooding is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a chance for showers and a few storms
across southeastern portions of the area this afternoon.
Temperatures remain below average into midweek.

A potent northern stream trough and cold front dive south from the
Northeast CONUS today/tonight, before possibly becoming cut off by
midweek off the Carolina coast. At the surface, the cold front will
cross the area from north to south during the day today with low
pressure developing well offshore of the Carolina coast by Tue
night/Wed. The main forecast challenge is figuring out if tstms
develop across far SE VA/NE NC before winds become northeast and any
sort of instability becomes suppressed well to our south. Convection
likely develops just ahead of the front by 2-3 PM before gradually
increasing in coverage as it moves into NE NC and eventually south
of the CWA by early evening. No precipitation is expected farther
north due drier air moving in behind the front. Some of the models
initialize convection in time for it to impact our SE zones (highest
chc near the Albemarle Sound), while others (including most 00z HREF
members), keep it dry area-wide. Regardless, severe wx is not
expected and the best instability will remain to our south. If
storms get going in our SE CWA, a few areas could see 0.50"+ of much
needed rain. Below average temps and dry conditions are expected
tonight-Tue with breezy NE winds (gusts to 30 mph) near the coast.
Forecast highs today will be in the mid-upper 70s near the coast to
lower 80s inland. Temperatures remain in the lower-mid 70s on Tue
and potentially only upper 60s along the coast due to the cool NE
flow. With high pressure building toward the area (especially
inland) Tue night, lows in the upper 40s-lower 50s are expected away
from the coast where winds become light or calm. Temps recover a bit
on Wednesday, though continue to remain below average with highs
ranging from the mid-upper 70s at the coast to around 80 inland.
Unfortunately, the low offshore is not expected to bring precip to
the area.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this
week into the weekend.

The persistent upper level trough over the eastern US begins to
break down/weaken by Thursday. This will allow a summer pattern to
take hold with temperatures climbing into the 80s on Thursday and
upper 80s to lower 90s Friday into the weekend. Moisture will be
relatively slow to return for early June with aftn dew pts
potentially in the mid 50s-60F through much of the weekend. Outside
of an isolated diurnal shower/storm, dry conditions are favored
Thursday into the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for bay-side
portions of the MD Eastern Shore and along the southern shore
Potomac River where nuisance tidal flooding is expected.

Tidal anomalies have increased above 1 ft in the middle/upper
Chesapeake Bay, mainly for portions of the MD Eastern Shore and
along the Potomac River. Strengthening southerly flow will result in
nuisance to low-end minor coastal flooding early this morning. At
the time of writing, Bishop`s Head appears to be peaking at 3.43 ft
MLLW (minor flood stage) and Lewisetta peaking at 2.89 ft MLLW
(action flood stage). Coastal Flood Statements will remain in effect
until 6AM with the current high tide cycle. Additional coastal
flooding is possible later this week as a prolonged period of NE
surface flow impacts the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A
cold front approaches from the NE and crosses the terminals
later this aftn-this evening. Clouds thicken and gradually
lower across the southern half of the area later this morning,
potentially becoming MVFR at ECG for a couple of hours. SCT-BKN
VFR cumulus is expected to develop later today. The main
aviation concern will be scattered tstms in far SE VA/NE NC
between 17-22z. Highest PoPs (~50%) are at ECG, with low PoPs at
ORF. Dry wx is expected elsewhere. Added a PROB30 for TSRA at
ECG but confidence is too low to add anything at ORF attm. MVFR
CIGs develop at ECG (and potentially ORF) later Monday morning,
with VFR prevailing elsewhere. In addition, light rain showers
will be possible at the SE terminals Monday morning, but VSBY
restrictions are not anticipated.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs may try to return later Monday night into
Tuesday night, mainly along the coast, due to developing
onshore flow behind the front. Gusty NE winds are expected near
the coast this evening-tonight. Prevailing VFR conditions
return later Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake Bay have been
  extended, now through Tuesday early afternoon, despite a
  brief lull in winds this afternoon.

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the coastal
  waters, lower James River, and Currituck Sound as NE winds
  increase behind a cold front this evening. Elevated seas may
  last into Wednesday.

High pressure has shifted offshore of the area, which allowed for
low-end SCA conditions in the Ches. Bay overnight. Winds are
currently 15-20 kt out of the SSW across the coastal waters, Ches.
Bay, and lower James River. Winds in these areas will continue to be
15-20 kt through around sunrise. There will be a brief lull in winds
across the Ches. Bay this morning ahead of a dry cold front, despite
remaining in a SCA. This front will cross the local waters around
mid-morning from the NW and shift winds out of the NE by the
evening. Behind the front, winds will increase to 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt by the evening. High pressure builds to the NW of the
local waters as weak low pressure develops offshore, resulting in
increasing NE winds through Wednesday, with coastal waters south of
Parramore Island seeing winds peak Tuesday afternoon around 20-25 kt
with gusts to 30 kt. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the
coastal waters, lower James River, and Currituck Sound through
Tuesday. The latest guidance continues to favor low pressure
developing well offshore but the gradient will likely be steep
enough for decent SCA conditions across the region into midweek.

Waves and seas will additionally increase this evening through
Tuesday, peaking Tuesday morning with waves 2-5 ft in the Ches. Bay
(highest in the mouth) and seas of 5-7 ft in the northern coastal
waters and 6-8 ft in the southern coastal waters. 5 ft seas in the
southern coastal waters may linger into Wednesday morning.

There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk at all area beaches today.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...KMC