Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

257
FXUS61 KAKQ 220053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
853 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for a large majority of
the tidal area starting Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide.
Gale Watches for the ocean waters off the NC coast have been
issued from Wednesday through Friday morning.

WPC introduced a Slight ERO for roughly the western half of the
area for Tuesday. Lowered high temperatures further on
Wednesday and Thursday as cold air damming sets up across the
area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chances for showers and storms tonight into Tuesday as a slow-
moving front lingers across the area.

2) Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will
create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the
week.

3) Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for a large
majority of the tidal area starting Wednesday afternoon/evening high
tide as widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding
(inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely to strong
northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several
tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the
persistent northeast winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 830 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers continue overnight, but the threat for
any strong storms has ended.

Latest WX analysis indicated the sfc front situated near of just
S of the NC border. There was a distinct DCAPE gradient and
despite very weak shear, some storms were able to become briefly
strong along with localized heavy rainfall. In general, the
threat for any additional strong storms has now ended w/ the
loss of daytime heating and the latest SPC mesoanalysis now
showing CIN across the region. Showers are developing across
portions of central VA to the north of the front, and will
become more widespread overnight over the NW 1/2 of the CWA, but
additional tstms are unlikely or will be isolated. Lows tonight
will range from the mid be in the mid 60s NW to the lower 70s
SE.

On Tuesday, the Canadian high pressure shifts a bit eastward,
serving as a reinforcement of our onshore flow. Northeast winds will
begin to pick up along the Eastern Shore Tuesday morning, then
spreading to all coastal locations through the day. Widespread
(coastal) gusts to 25mph will be likely, with gusts increasing to 35
to up to 45 mph along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore
(including Ocean City, Chincoteague, etc) Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The lingering front will keep rain chances going on
Tuesday for most of the area. Could get some isolated storms as well
that create locally heavy downpours and instances of flash flooding.
WPC has highlighted the western half of the area in a Day 2 Slight
ERO. Highs will range from the upper 60 N-NW to the low-mid 80s
across southern portions of the area. The cooler airmass will make
its presence known starting Tuesday night as lows will be in the mid
50s across the northwest, with low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s
along the SE and coastal areas.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal
low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of
the week.

Cold air damming will overtake the area on Wednesday as high
pressure remains parked to our north. This will keep high
temperatures in the low to mid 60s for the northern and western
inland areas, with low to mid 70s for the SE half of the CWA. Winds
for coastal areas will persistently be blowing around 20-25 mph with
gusts to 35+ mph. The strongest winds will once again be along the
Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore with gusts to 40-45 mph likely
Tuesday night, potentially lasting all the way through at least
Thursday as the low pressure remains offshore. Rain chances continue
everywhere on Wednesday, though due to the stable cooler
environment, storms aren`t expected, with the exception of the NC
coast. There could once again be areas of locally higher rainfall at
times that lead to flash flooding. WPC has a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for a majority of the area on Wednesday. Rain
chances may focus more across the eastern portions of the area later
Thursday into Friday. A secondary surface low may form and cause the
main low to recenter itself slightly closer to the Mid-Atlantic/New
England coast late Thursday into Friday. Highs will remain in the
60s with 70s closer to the coast both day. If winds are able to
shift more out of the north around the west side of the low
pressure, our low temperatures Thursday and Friday night could dip
into the mid 50s, with the potential for even some upper 40s well
inland.

Into the weekend and beyond, models are showing that this low may
continue to hang around to our northeast. As of right now, it still
appears that it will be just far enough from our area that we may
have a pleasant weekend for most of the area, but that definitely
could change as the details of the low`s placement come to light. Be
sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast updates as this system
will create a prolonged period of gusty onshore winds, coastal
flooding, high surf, beach erosion, and dangerous marine conditions
(see below).


KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for a large
majority of the tidal area starting Wednesday afternoon/evening high
tide as widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding
(inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely to strong
northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several
tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the
persistent northeast winds.

Strong northeast winds are expected from Tuesday night through at
least Thursday, which will cause water levels to rise across much of
the area (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic
coast). No worse than nuisance-minor tidal flooding is expected
through Tuesday evening. Tidal anomalies will then significantly
rise on Wednesday due to strong persistent NE winds. Minor flooding
is likely with locally moderate flooding as early as the Wednesday
morning high tide for site along the southern and western side of
the Ches. Bay, tidal James and York Rivers, and the Atlantic coast.
The Wednesday evening high tide is then forecast to see higher water
levels with widespread moderate to locally major flooding. This
corresponds to inundation of 2-3 ft AGL in vulnerable areas. Coastal
FLood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal
area beginning Wednesday evening for most and Wednesday morning for
tidal southern Potomac and Rappahannock rivers. Impactful tidal
flooding likely persists through several tide cycles as NE winds
remain elevated.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 830 PM EDT Monday...

This evening, a frontal boundary has become nearly stationary
across northern NC, with E-NE winds at all terminals. CIGs are
mainly MVFR at 1500-2500 ft, through some IFR CIGs are starting
to develop across the interior. The coverage of SHRA/TSRA has
diminished since sunset, with the best chance for additional/redeveloping
SHRA will  be across central VA. Expect RIC to have mainly IFR
restrictions overnight and through the day on Tuesday, with
mainly MVFR restrictions at PHF/ORF/ECG. SHRA and/or BR also
becomes more widespread Tuesday, leading to the potential for
VSBY restrictions. NE winds become gusty along the immediate
coast (20-25 knots) in the later morning-afternoon, with gusts
to around 20 kt at RIC by later in the day.

Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to persist through
most of the upcoming week. Wed should continue to see widespread
flight restrictions, with at least intermittent degraded flight
conditions likely through Thursday. Coastal terminals will also
have elevated NE winds for an extended period, with winds
remaining elevated and shifting to the N-NW Fri-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A brief east to northeasterly surge is expected late this
afternoon-this evening behind a cold front. Winds will increase to
15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the northern marine area, with
gusts to 20 kt likely south to the VA-NC border. Ramp up SCAs have
been issued for the ocean north of Parramore Island.

- SCA level winds are forecast beginning Tuesday morning. Confidence
in a period of gales with NE winds is very high from Tuesday night-
Thursday, and Gale Watches remain in effect for the bay, ocean north
of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River, extended in time through
Friday morning. Gale Watches for the ocean waters off the NC coast
have been issued from Wednesday through Friday morning.

- Seas build to 10-14+ feet, likely leading to dangerous marine
conditions.

Latest surface analysis shows a cold front bisecting the coastal
waters near the VA/NC state border this afternoon. Behind the cold
front, winds have shifted out of the NE and increased to 10-15 kt
(with a few gusts to 20 kt in the northern coastal waters). The
front will continue pushing south this evening, before stalling
south of the area. The strong CAA/wind with the front will be
lagged, but NE winds will begin the increase to strong NE winds that
will cause dangerous marine conditions. But this evening/tonight, NE
winds will increase to 15-20 kt north/15 kt south causing seas to
build to 4-5+ ft north of Parramore Island. SCAs remain in effect
north of Parramore Island for the increased seas, beginning this
evening. Conditions could briefly approach SCA criteria across the
Ches Bay late this aftn/this evening. However, the duration is short
and local wind probs for sustained 18+ kt winds are 20-35% for a few
hrs. Winds may decrease by a few knots tonight, but NE winds are
progged to increase to sustained 20-25 kt south and Ches. Bay/25-30
kt north by Tuesday evening as stronger CAA ensues. A few gale force
gusts are possible north of Parramore Island as early as late Tue
aftn.

An impressive 1035+ mb high will build across eastern Canada by the
middle of the week as low pressure deepens a couple hundred miles
offshore of the VA/NC coast. This will help strengthen the CAA and
tighten the pressure gradient over the local waters. The strongest
winds are expected to occur Wed night through Thu night from the
pressure gradient increasing between the high and deepening offshore
low. The global models are now in very good agreement with respect
to timing, and confidence in frequent gale force gusts is very high
with local wind probs showing nearly a 100% chc of 34+ kt wind gusts
from Wed through a good part of Thu. Gale Watches remain in effect
for the Ches. Bay, lower James river, and coastal waters north of
the VA/NC state border, with the ocean waters now in effect through
early Fri morning (there is potential for another expansion in
time). Gale Watches have been issued for the ocean waters south of
the VA/NC state border and the Currituck Sound from Wed afternoon
through Fri morning. Some of the models show 925mb winds increasing
to ~45 kt for a short time as the strongest CAA arrives late
Wed/early Thu. With the unstable marine boundary layer and water
temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should be
able to mix down to the sfc. This could lead to a 6 hour period of
sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt. Confidence in this
scenario has increased since yesterday and have a mention of gusts
as high as 45 kt in the MWW/CWF. Given the prolonged strong NE
winds, seas are forecast to build to 10-14+ ft. This will likely
lead to dangerous marine conditions from late Tuesday night through
at least Thursday. Low-end gale force gusts could certainly continue
through the end of the work week (with solid SCA winds next weekend)
as the low potentially lingers offshore, with the wind trending to
northerly later in the week and potentially NNW by later next
weekend.

Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by Tuesday and will
continue through Thu with the prolonged onshore flow, and remain
high into the weekend due to high seas even as the winds become
NNW. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible from mid to late
week as well. High Surf Advisories will eventually be needed for
all of the beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through late
     Thursday night for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Thursday night for MDZ024.
NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late
     Thursday night for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Thursday night for VAZ082>084-089-090-099-100-518-520-523-
     524-528.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday
     morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Thursday night for VAZ097-098-525-529>531.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon
     for ANZ630-631.
     Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday evening
     for ANZ632-634.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for
     ANZ633-658-688.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Friday morning for
     ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656.
     Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday morning for
     ANZ656-686.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB/JKP
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...ERI/KMC