Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

836
FXUS61 KAKQ 310646
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
246 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minimal changes to the forecast were made over the next 7
days.

Added a Climate section below for daily record highs.

Small Craft Advisories have been expanded for today and tonight
for the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and coastal zones north of
Parramore Island.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Becoming increasingly mild this week with even a few record highs
possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to scattered
shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday.

2) A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms
Easter Sunday.

3) Increased fire danger conditions continue across portions of
interior northeast North Carolina today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Becoming increasingly mild this week with even a few
record highs possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated
to scattered shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday.

High pressure remains anchored offshore for much of the week with a
building upper ridge aloft. Deep-layer flow will strongly be out of
the S to SW for a majority of the period. High temperatures today
climb into the lower 80s for inland areas and 70s closer to the
immediate coast. Even warmer on Wednesday with highs in the lower to
mid 80s for a majority of the area (slightly cooler at the immediate
coast). Record highs may be challenged, especially on Wednesday, see
the climate section below for more details. Lows will also be quite
mild both tonight and Wednesday night with lows ranging from the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Still expect some showers or thunderstorms
around later in the day Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the
best shot of this across the NW third of our CWA. However, the most
favorable upper forcing and the sfc boundary will be well N and NW
of the region. There is the potential for an isolated strong to
severe storm, mainly across far northern portions of the MD Eastern
Shore, Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. SPC has a Day 2
Marginal Risk just off to our north.

A strong upper ridge will continue to build across the eastern US
Thursday into this weekend, which will allow for continued warm and
mainly dry conditions. Cannot rule out an isolated afternoon/evening
shower or storm across W/NW portions of the area each day, but
expect precipitation chances to be limited (~20-30% PoPs at most).
Highs Thursday through Saturday will generally range from the lower
to mid 80s. A backdoor cold front will likely allow for cooler
conditions across the Eastern Shore and potentially Northern Neck on
Thursday with highs in the 60s and 70s. Record highs are generally
warmer Thursday through Saturday, though record highs may still be
in reach at Norfolk and Salisbury on Saturday. Overnight lows each
night will remain mild for this time of year with lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or
thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

The ridge is likely to break down later Easter Weekend as a low
pressure system strengthens over the Northern Plains/Great Lakes
Region, sending a cold front our way. Timing details will likely
change, but the current consensus depicts a line of showers or
storms moving through Sunday evening into Sunday night. With the
strength of the front, cannot rule out the potential for strong to
severe storms. Machine-learning/AI models highlight at least a low-
end potential for a few stronger storms. Be sure to stay tuned to
the latest forecast if you have outdoor activities planned for the
holiday. Ahead of the front, temps potentially warm into the 80s,
though the temp forecast is closely tied to the frontal timing.
Temperatures fall back into the 50s and 60s on Monday in the wake of
the front.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Increased fire danger conditions continue across
portions of interior northeast North Carolina today.

The combination of relative humidity values in the 35 to 45 percent
range, dry fine fuels, ongoing moderate to severe drought, and wind
gusts up to 20 mph will result in an increased risk for the rapid
spread of wildfires today across portions of interior northeast
North Carolina west of the Chowan River.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 06z/31 TAF period, with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and no rain chances
forecast. The main concern for today will be gusty SW winds,
especially from late morning into this evening, at all sites.
Wind gusts of 25+ knots are likely at all sites. Winds gradually
diminish by sunset and into tonight, but still remain breezy.
LLWS also develops tonight, with the best chances at SBY.

Outlook: High pressure remains offshore through Wednesday with
SW flow continuing. Rain chances have diminished Wednesday
through Saturday and VFR conditions are likely to continue
other than the chance for periodic flight restrictions in
scattered showers/storms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night (mainly for northern terminals). Isolated afternoon
showers/storms will also be possible Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions expected during the day, especially close to
  land, through at least mid week.

- An additional round of S to SW surge is expected tonight.
  Marginal SCA surges, mainly in the Chesapeake Bay, are
  possible Wednesday into Thursday and Thursday into Friday as
  well.

- Small Craft Advisories have been expanded for today and
  tonight for the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and northern
  coastal waters.

High pressure centered well offshore continues to reign control over
the winds for the area. S-SW winds early this morning are around 15-
20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the Ches. Bay and northern coastal
waters, 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the southern waters south of
the VA/NC border. Winds will decrease some after sunrise to near SCA
thresholds today with windspeeds around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in
the Ches. Bay, tidal rivers, and southern coastal zones and around
20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the northern coastal waters. The rivers
may be breezier than the bay as the land will be well mixed,
translating over to the rivers. Then, this evening/tonight, winds
will see another surge of S-SW winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
in the Bay and 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the northern coastal
waters (15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt south of Cape Charles). With
the marginal wind speeds during the day and the stronger surge
tonight, have opted to expand the SCA for the Bay through tonight,
including the remaining zones and the tidal rivers. Winds are more
marginal south of Parramore Island during the day, so will allow the
SCA to expire this morning, but will likely need to reissue for
tonight.

Waves will increase tonight to 2-3 ft in the Bay and seas 4-5 ft N
and 3-4 ft S. Additional overnight surges are possible Wednesday
night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday, but look to be
marginal at this time, mainly for the Bay. Otherwise, benign
marine conditions through the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs through Saturday, 4/4. The best potential for
record highs is tomorrow, 4/1 at Norfolk and Salisbury where
current records are only in the lower 80s.

Richmond:           Record High:

Tue (3/31)          90/1938
Wed (4/1)           88/1978
Thu (4/2)           89/1967
Fri (4/3)           93/1963
Sat (4/4)           87/2011

Norfolk:            Record High:

Tue (3/31)          85/1938
Wed (4/1)           83/2016
Thu (4/2)           87/1967
Fri (4/3)           91/1963
Sat (4/4)           86/2025

Salisbury:          Record High:

Tue (3/31)          82/1945
Wed (4/1)           83/1978
Thu (4/2)           85/1967
Fri (4/3)           86/1963
Sat (4/4)           83/1999

Elizabeth City:     Record High:

Tue (3/31)          86/1998
Wed (4/1)           84/2024
Thu (4/2)           86/2014
Fri (4/3)           89/1967
Sat (4/4)           88/2025

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ012-013-030.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB/NB
MARINE...KMC
CLIMATE...AJB