Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

657
FXUS61 KAKQ 120622
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
222 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion. It is looking increasingly likely that we
will see the rain change to snow across central/eastern VA and
the MD Eastern Shore for an hour or two during the afternoon.
While no impacts are expected, a dusting on grassy surfaces is
possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front crosses the area between 6 AM and noon today.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s by the
afternoon. There is a very good chance of rain, along with a low-end
potential for some stronger storms across NE NC between 9 AM and
noon today. The rain may change to snow for an hour or two this
afternoon across central/eastern VA and the MD Eastern Shore.
A dusting of snow is possible on grassy surfaces.

2) Cooler temperatures and dry weather return to end the week.
Another storm system brings a chance for showers and thunderstorms
to the area on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front crosses the area between 6 AM
and noon today. Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s
by the afternoon. There is a very good chance of rain, along with a
low-end potential for some stronger storms across NE NC between 9 AM
and noon today. The rain may change to snow for an hour or two this
afternoon across central/eastern VA and the MD Eastern Shore. A
dusting of snow is possible on grassy surfaces.

A southern stream low pressure system currently over the Deep South
tracks ENE through the Carolinas today, before moving offshore by
this evening. Meanwhile, a strong cold front just to our north will
quickly cross the area from NNW-SSE between 6 AM and noon. It is
warm with lower-mid 70s at this hour/breezy SSW winds. Temperatures
will likely warm a couple degrees across SE VA/NE NC later this
morning before the cold front moves through. The front should cross
central/northern zones by 8-9 AM, allowing temps to fall into the
40s by noon. While the vast majority of the precipitation is progged
to fall behind the front, a line of showers will likely accompany
the front as it crosses the area. Some pre-frontal destabilization
(MLCAPE ~1000 J/kg) is likely across extreme SE VA and especially NE
NC. While most areas will see gusts to 30-40 mph as the front moves
through, an isolated strong storm producing 45-60 mph wind gusts
can`t completely be ruled out, though confidence in this is low. The
best chc of severe wx is in NE NC near the Albemarle Sound where the
FROPA is latest. Temps are expected to drop from around 70F to the
40s very quickly following the FROPA, and will continue to fall into
the mid 30s-lower 40s by the afternoon. Some areas will see a very
impressive 24 hour temperature change on the order of 50 degrees
from Wed afternoon to today! A period of rain is likely behind the
front between late morning and early evening, with widespread
amounts of 0.25-0.75" likely.

It is looking increasingly likely that we will see the rain change
to snow across central/eastern VA and perhaps the eastern shore for
an hour or two during the afternoon. While falling snow appears
likely, it will be very hard for anything to accumulate unless we
see consistent moderate to heavy snow for a couple of hours. This is
quite unlikely attm. However, up to 1" is not out of the question if
we see solid 1/4SM VSBY heavy snow for a couple of hours. And will
also note that the positive snow depth change in several of the
models is ~20% of the forecast snow totals using the Kuchera snow
ratios given the warm ground/sfc temps not dropping below 33-34F.
Will advertise up to 0.1-0.3" of accums to account for the
possibility of a dusting on the grass (which appears more likely).
Regardless of accumulation, it is very rare to see snow on the exact
same day with highs in the 70s (the high in RIC will technically be
~76F).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures and dry weather return to end
the week. Another storm system brings a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to the area on Monday.

Looking through the extended, seasonably cooler and dry weather
returns Friday, with highs dropping back into the 50s despite
plentiful sunshine. Milder conditions with temps approaching 70F are
forecasted by the weekend as transient high pressure slides over,
also supporting continued mainly dry wx. Strong low pressure
(potentially sub-980mb) tracks from the Midwest to Ontario/Quebec on
Monday/Monday night. That system will drag a cold front through the
area Monday night. Ahead of the front, warm and somewhat humid wx is
expected on Mon with highs in the 70s and dew pts potentially in the
lower-mid 60s. A band of showers, with a few embedded tstms, will
cross the area from Monday-Monday evening. There is a chance for a
few stronger storms as well (with damaging winds being the main
threat). More specifics to come as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected through 12z before deteriorating
from NW-SE today. Winds will remain gusty out of the S to SW
and LLWS is possible at all sites through 12-14z. Attention
then turns to a strong cold front set to cross the terminals
between 11-16z. Most of the precipitation will fall behind the
front, with widespread rain expected through much of the day.
Could see a tstm at ORF/ECG between 13-16z, but confidence in
this is low but have introduced PROB30 groups to account for the
possibility of thunder. CIGs drop to low-end MVFR at all sites
by midday. IFR CIGs are also possible at RIC ~18z, potentially
spreading into PHF as well. A quick drop in temperatures will
bring a brief changeover to snow starting around 18-19z at RIC
and SBY and ~20-22z at ORF/PHF. Precip likely remains all rain
at ECG. Periods of IFR VSBYs are likely with any heavier RASN or
SN. There is a low chc of a couple hours worth of 1/2-1SM VSBY
snow at RIC/SBY/PHF. SW winds quickly turn to the NW behind the
front with gusts of 25-30 knots possible.

Outlook: VFR conditions return tonight and persist into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 AM EDT Thursday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay,
  tidal rivers, and northern coastal waters into early evening,
  and go into effect for the Currituck Sound later this
  morning.

- Gale Warnings go into effect mid morning for the Ocean from
  Cape Charles to Currituck Beach Light NC, and for the mouth
  of the Chesapeake Bay.

Surface analysis shows strong low pressure centered north of NY with
a sharp cold front extending to the SW along the Appalachians. The
pressure gradient is tightening early this morning with SW winds
mainly 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Some elevated sensors in the
Ches Bay and offshore have observed gusts around 30 kt which shows
that cool waters are impeding deeper mixing and downward momentum
transport of the stronger flow aloft. 00z guidance continues to show
the strong cold front crossing the waters from around sunrise in the
north and clearing the southern waters by late morning. Winds
quickly turn NW/NNW behind the boundary. Impressive pressure rises
(9-12mb in 6 hours) will immediately follow the cold front and winds
could gust 35-40 kt as the boundary comes through. It still appears
that the best chance for prolonged gusts of this magnitude will be
focused across the southern third of the area from mid to late
morning through mid to late afternoon. This includes the mouth of
the bay and Atlantic coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light.
Elsewhere, the period of post-frontal 30-40 kt gusts will be shorter
and will be handled with short-fuse SMWs as needed (this has been
mentioned in the MWW). The gradient begins to relax this evening
and especially during the overnight hours.  Seas will build to 4-6
ft far N and 3-4 ft S in the pre-frontal SW flow early this morning.
Seas will avg 4-5 ft N, and will build to 5-7 ft S (where the
strongest winds will occur). Waves in the Chesapeake Bay increase to
2-4 ft ahead of the front and reach to 3-5 ft through much of the
day during the stronger NNW winds.

Another system moves by well to the north on Friday with potential
for another period of SCA conditions (especially for the
northern half of the area), as increasing S to SW winds develop.
More tranquil marine conditions are expected Saturday into the
first half of Sunday before the next strong system approaches
the region late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...

Record highs were set at ORF (88F), RIC (89F), SBY (86F), and
ECG (86F) yesterday. Record high mins were also set at RIC (58F),
SBY (55F), and Norfolk (62F).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>632-635>638-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ634.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for ANZ634.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...LKB/RHR
CLIMATE...ERI/LKB