Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

177
FXUS61 KAKQ 271046
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
646 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12z TAF update. No other major changes made.

Marine Updates: Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for
the tidal lower James River for the upcoming high tide cycle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Trending a few degrees milder with mainly dry conditions to
start the work week. A few showers are possible in the Piedmont
Tuesday, but any rain amounts appear very light.

2) Widespread showers and a few storms are expected
Wednesday. Mainly dry to end the week, with low-end rain chances
returning by Saturday, though drought conditions are also likely to
persist. Temperatures hover near or just below seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Trending a few degrees milder with mainly dry
conditions to start the work week. A few showers are possible in the
Piedmont Tuesday, but any rain amounts appear very light.

Elongated low pressure continues to spin away near the northern edge
of the Gulf Stream this morning. Nighttime microphysics satellite
depicts an overcast low-level stratus deck across S/SE VA and the
Carolinas. This is where the low-level moisture persists. However,
dry air advection is quickly eroding the stratus from N to S and
roughly the northern half of the CWA has cleared out. Further
clearing is expected across the S through the morning hours today.
Breezy conditions also persist along the coast and should again
become gusty this afternoon with daytime mixing. Overall, a pleasant
day is on the way with highs in the 60s. Those along the coast will
be the coolest given the onshore flow. Chilly tonight as high
pressure settles E of the Appalachians and winds become light.
Forecast lows are in the 40s for most, "warmest" at the coast (upper
40s) and coolest inland where even a few upper 30s are possible in
rural/typically cool spots. These temps are a few degrees too warm
for frost despite RHs near 100% by late tonight.

Deep-layer troughing over the western CONUS will be in place for the
early week period. An associated shortwave will advance from
the Intermountain West into the Great Lakes tonight. This will
drag a weak surface cold front through late Tuesday morning.
While moisture will be very limited ahead and along this
feature, a few showers may spill into our western counties late
tomorrow morning into the early afternoon. CAMs mainly show this
in the form of decaying prior-day convection. Most of the PoPs
are confined W of I-95 and are 20-40%, but this could be
generous. Otherwise, Tuesday also looks like a rather nice day
with highs in the upper 60s-lower 70s, albeit with a few more
clouds around.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread showers and a few storms are expected
Wednesday. Mainly dry to end the week, with low-end rain chances
returning by Saturday, though drought conditions are also likely to
persist. Temperatures hover near or just below seasonal averages.

A more substantial slug of moisture is expected late Wednesday as a
wave of low pressure emerges from the lower MS Valley and approaches
our area, dragging another cold front through in the evening. There
is high confidence in most of the area seeing rainfall Wednesday
afternoon and evening given PoPs in the 80-100% range. The more
pressing question is how much rainfall falls? Ensemble probabilities
are reasonably enthusiastic (30-60%) for 0.5" of rain and
demonstrably less enthusiastic for 1" of QPF (<20%). Any higher
amounts would likely be attributable to convection. Regarding
convection, there is some instability given mid-level lapse rates of
6-7 C/km, though low-level lapse rates look to be tempered by
widespread cloud cover. Combined with enhanced mid-level flow from
an eastward-advancing trough, some stronger storms are possible and
some of the AI/machine learning output highlights a low-end
severe threat. SPC has introduced a marinal (level 1 out of 5)
risk for the entire area with a risk for damaging winds and
hail. However, still not expecting widespread severe storms at
this time.

Mainly dry with temps a little below normal Thursday and Friday.
Specifics beyond this time are uncertain but chance PoPs are in
place again Saturday as an additional wave of moisture passes
through. Unfortunately, none of this rain this week will make an
appreciable dent in the ongoing drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM EDT Monday ...

The low stratus deck continues to erode for N to S this morning.
MVFR CIGs will probably linger at ECG through most of the
morning, improving to VFR this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR/SKC is
expected through the 27/12z TAF period. NNE winds increase to
10-15 kt later this morning and afternoon, breeziest along the
coast, with gusts to 20-25 kt at PHF, ORF, and ECG. Winds
become light/calm tonight except along the immediate coast.

Outlook: There is a chance for mainly light rain Tuesday
afternoon/evening with a better shot of more widespread rainfall
Wednesday. Flight restrictions will be minimal if they develop
at all Tuesday, but are likely Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected to
  continue through this evening across the lower Chesapeake Bay,
  and through midweek across the coastal waters as seas remain
  elevated.

- Nuisance-type tidal flooding is possible later this morning
  and again this evening for coastal communities along the tidal
  lower James River.

Low pressure and its associated cold front are now well
offshore, as 1024+mb high pressure ridges into the region from
the north. While NE winds have trended down over the past
several hours, 15-25 kt speeds persist across the Bay, Sound,
and coastal waters. However, winds have diminished enough
(~10-15 kt) to allow for the cancellation of SCAs over the E VA
rivers.

Conditions will continue to gradually improve today, as the
pressure gradient relaxes in response to high pressure building
overhead through this evening. This will allow SCAs to expire
across the middle/upper Bay and lower James River later this
morning, and the Currituck Sound by this afternoon. Winds will
generally diminish to 10-15 kt, though occasional gusts to ~20
kt may persist over the lower Bay and Atlantic coast through the
afternoon. While local winds diminish further tonight, elevated
seas will keep SCA in place over the lower Bay into this evening.
Significant wave heights are likely to keep SCA in place over
the nearshore coastal waters, with seas to remain in the 5-6 ft
range through at least midweek, courtesy of a persistent NNE
swell and shorter period wind waves.


Coastal Flooding...
Regarding coastal flood potential: winds diminished quickly
enough last evening to prevent most tidal sites from reaching
Minor coastal flood thresholds during the previous tide cycle.
However, persistent NNE fetch continues to maintain tidal
anomalies ~1.0 ft. While the Coastal Flood Advisory was
cancelled, a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect to cover
spotty nuisance-type tidal flooding, which is likely during high
tide later this morning. The potential for another cycle of
similar impacts also lingers into this evening. Thereafter,
tidal anomalies are forecast to gradually subside through
midweek.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     633.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...HET/MAM