Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

484
FXUS61 KAKQ 180710
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
210 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisories have been expanded a bit southwest to
include Middlesex, King William, and King and Queen counties.
Snow totals for south-central VA into interior NE NC have also
increased to 0.5-1". Uncertainty continues to remain higher-
than-normal given marginal temperature conditions which could
limit accumulations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Confidence is moderate-high in portions of the area seeing some
wet snow today, with the most likely timing for snow from the
afternoon through early evening. 1-2" is expected across the VA
Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore, where Winter Weather Advisories
have been issued. 0.5- 1" is expected elsewhere, with lesser amounts
for southside Hampton Roads and coastal NE NC. However, uncertainty
remains due to marginal surface temperatures.

2) A strong push of Arctic air arrives for early next week, with
below normal temperatures to continue through the first half of next
week. Tuesday is expected to be the coldest day, with single digit
wind chills possible Tuesday morning.

3) Another storm system may impact the area next weekend, but it is
way too early for specifics at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Confidence is moderate-high in portions of the area
seeing some wet snow today, with the most likely timing for snow
from the afternoon through early evening. 1-2" is expected across
the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore, where Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued. 0.5- 1" is expected elsewhere, with
lesser amounts for southside Hampton Roads and coastal NE NC.
However, uncertainty remains due to marginal surface temperatures.

An upper trough to our west pushes E today. A fast moving shortwave
at the base of the trough is forecast to strengthen as it takes on a
slight negative tilt just before it crosses the area during the
afternoon and evening. At the surface, low pressure develops off the
Carolina coast this morning before deepening while tracking NE
during the remainder of today. Light rain is encroaching on on the
SW Piedmont early this morning, with dew points increasing a few
degrees over past hour or so. This initial push of precip will
likely focus from the I-95 corridor and points W, increasing in
coverage through 7 AM or so. The precipitation will increase in
intensity throughout the day (while also spreading east) as the
trough axis approaches. Weak CAA also ensues from the NW.
925-850mb temps are progged to drop to -1 to -4C across the NW
two-thirds of the area by the afternoon as precip intensity
peaks. The key to whether precip can change over to snow will be
the thermal profiles in the lowest 1000-1500 ft AGL. If it can
drop to 32-33F for a few hours due to wet-bulb/column cooling
effects, then a period of accumulating snow is likely (mainly on
grassy/elevated surfaces). On the other hand, if it doesn`t
drop below 34-36F, precip would be predominantly rain with
perhaps a brief period of snow at the tail end of the precip
during the early evening. Additionally, snow will be more likely
where precip rates are heavier.

Significant model inconsistencies remain as of this writing, which
is particularly frustrating given this event is within 24 hrs. Most
of these differences can be traced to resolving the aforementioned
thermal profiles, with there now being good agreement on the
synoptic details and QPF placement. There has been some trend among
the 00z model runs, particularly among the higher-res guidance
(HRRR/3km NAM/ARW/NSSL), of showing a notable burst of snow accum (1-
2") from central NC into S-Central VA this evening as the precip
changes over to snow. The latest 00z EPS also depicts a similar
scenario with a swath of 1-2" from central NC into SE VA and the
Eastern Shore. While confidence is too low to go this high in the
forecast, did up totals to 0.5-1" in these areas. Still think the
best chance for 1-2" is from the Northern Neck onto the Eastern
Shore, coinciding with the best overlap of dynamic cooling effects
and mid-level frontogenesis. Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect for these areas, with a small expansion SW for areas that
have >1" in the forecast (to maintain consistency with the previous
forecaster`s rationale). SE VA and NE NC still look to struggle to
see much, if any, snow despite the higher QPF, mainly due to temps
struggling to drop until precip departs this evening. However, we
will be closely monitoring the evolution of the temperatures and
precip through the day in case additional short-fused advisories may
be needed.

Regardless of any headlines, would expect any accums to be mostly
confined to grassy and elevated surfaces and not roadways. We could
see accums on roadways if it snows hard enough for a couple of
hours, though not that confident in this. A reasonable worse case
scenario would be 2-3" for most of the area with 1-2" for SE VA and
NE NC, mainly if precip intensity can overcome marginal sfc temps.
Colder and drier air arrives from NW-SE this evening bringing a
rapid end to the precip. Will also have to monitor for any freezing
of residual wet/slushy surfaces tonight.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong push of Arctic air arrives for early next
week behind a secondary dry cold front, with below averages
temperatures to continue through the first half of next week.

Arctic air arrives Monday night behind a secondary cold front.
Frigid temperatures are expected for at least the first half of next
week, with the coldest air occurring Monday night, Tuesday, and into
early Wednesday morning. EPS/GEFS continue to show 2m temperature
anomalies 15F to nearly 20F degrees below average. Overnight lows in
the upper teens to mid 20s are expected Sunday night, and primarily
teens Monday/Tuesday night. Cold Weather Advisories are possible Mon
night given forecast wind chills in the single digits across far
northern portions of the FA (particularly the Eastern Shore). While
day-time temps will be rather chilly each day Monday through
Wednesday, Tuesday is forecast to be the coldest day with highs
struggling to make it above freezing north of I-64.

Temperatures may attempt to moderate a bit by the middle and end of
the week as the upper flow turns more zonal. However, daily highs
still look to be slightly below normal. While it also looks mainly
dry, a series of fronts toward the end of the week could bring
sporadic/light precip.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Another storm system may impact the area next
weekend, but it is way too early for specifics at this time.

Despite the slight moderating trend is expected late this week,
Arctic air is expected to remain entrenched across north and
northeast portions of the CONUS through late week into next weekend.
The flow aloft largely remains zonal but strong (1045+mb) Arctic
high pressure is progged to build into the north-central CONUS by
next Saturday. A couple of fast moving shortwaves may track over the
area next Sat and or Sun, which could bring chances for more
widespread precip. There is some ensemble support (including from
the Euro AIFS) for wintry wx across northern portions of our area,
which seem reasonable given the strong supply of cold air to our N.
Ultimately, exact precip types will be highly dependent on
impossible-to-resolve (at this range) storm tracks. Will continue to
monitor over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1240 AM EST Sunday...

VFR to start off the 06z/18 TAF period, but clouds (and rain
chances) will continue to increase from the west over the next
few hours. CIGs fall to MVFR between ~09-12z and rain becomes
more widespread. IFR/LIFR CIGs are then expected after 12z as
steadier rain moves into the area (VSBYs 2-5SM). The rain likely
changes to to snow or a rain/snow mix at RIC and SBY during the
afternoon, with light to occasionally moderate snow possible for
a few hours mid-late afternoon. The most likely timing for snow
at RIC and SBY is 18-01z. There could be a few hours
of -SN with IFR VSBYs at PHF/ORF between 20-01z, with mainly
rain at ECG (brief mix possible ~23z). Winds becomes N-NW around
5-10 knots today (no significant wind is expected with the
precip). Conditions improve later this evening and tonight as
the precip moves offshore.

Outlook: Dry/VFR prevails Tuesday morning through Wednesday. A
cold front potentially crosses the area Thursday with only a 20%
chance of showers at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
later this afternoon into tonight due to the potential for 20 to 25
knot wind gusts.

- Another round of SCAs is possible Monday night into Tuesday as
another cold front crosses the waters.

Early this morning, a stalled cold front is located just off the
coast. Low pressure is expected to develop along this front later
this morning, eventually lifting northeast of the local area by this
evening. Winds are currently light and variable over the waters.
Seas range from 2 to 3 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay are 1
foot or less. Winds increase and become N to NW today, generally
ranging around 10 to 15 knots. Winds increase further this later
this afternoon into early tonight as the pressure gradient briefly
tightens due to the area of low pressure. Low-end SCA conditions are
expected across the Chesapeake Bay, with latest wind probs now up to
~60-70% chances for 20+ knot gusts around 00z/7 PM this evening
(especially across the northern bay). With the guidance showing the
increasing SCA potential, opted to issue a SCA for the Chesapeake
Bay from 21z/4 PM EST Sunday until 06z/1 AM EST Monday. There is
less confidence across the coastal waters for SCA conditions, but
local wind probs do show a 3-4 hour window from ~23 to 03z for 25+
knot gusts (especially out 20 nm). Winds diminish to 10 to 15 knots
after Midnight, becoming W and eventually SW by Monday morning. SW
winds increase Monday afternoon ahead of a strong cold front which
is expected to cross the waters Monday evening into Monday night. In
the wake of the front, winds become NW and average ~15 to 20 knots.
Additional SCAs may be needed for at least portions of the
Chesapeake Bay and the northern coastal waters Monday evening into
Tuesday morning. Generally benign, sub-SCA, conditions take hold
through the midweek timeframe before another system potentially
approaches next weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
     this evening for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     this evening for VAZ064-075>078-085-517>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...AJB/AJZ
MARINE...AJB