Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

274
FXUS61 KAKQ 031040
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
640 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An unsettled pattern prevails through midweek. Expect near
average temperatures, with very humid conditions, and daily
chances of showers and storms.

2) A more typical summertime pattern returns for the latter
half of the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms remain possible, with near to slightly above
normal temperatures prevailing through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled pattern prevails through midweek.
Expect near average temperatures, with very humid conditions,
and daily chances of showers and storms.

A low pressure system is currently sliding across the eastern Great
Lakes region, with an associated cold front draped across the
Appalachians through the Gulf Coast. Most shower and thunderstorm
activity has dwindled across the area, though some light showers
still remain. Mesoanalysis places widespread 2"+ PW values across
the entire coast as deep Gulf moisture continues to funnel
northward. Dew points are in the lower to mid 70s and temperatures
are in the mid to upper 70s, making for quite a muggy morning.

A shortwave associated with an upper trough will lift across the
area today, leading to additional convective development today.
Guidance has trended down some on the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, and depict the highest PoPs and QPF across the SE
portion of the area. The trough weakens further Tuesday and
Wednesday, but scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms
capable of heavy rainfall remain expected as deep moisture lingers
despite weakening SW flow aloft. The main catalyst for convection
will be where the front associated with the slow-moving low across
the NE ends up each day, which will ultimately dictate the coverage
and location of any convective development. The front looks like it
may drift across our area on Tuesday, which could bring more shower
and thunderstorm coverage than previously thought, but will continue
to monitor any trends in the upcoming forecast cycles.

Given the environment, and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft
and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash
flooding each day. However, the severe threat should stay low due to
poor mid-level lapse rates, a near-saturated vertical column, and
weak shear. Days 1-3 (Monday through Wednesday) are in a Marginal
ERO as the overall flash flood risk is more isolated in nature. High
temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week
period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of
showers/tstms, though any breaks in the cloud cover may allow
temperatures to briefly overperform.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A more typical summertime pattern returns for
the latter half of the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms remain possible, with near to slightly
above normal temperatures prevailing through next weekend.

Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the
latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms. With the decreased convective
coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly
above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points
will remain in the mid to upper 70s, making for quite humid
conditions. Heat indices will approach 100 degrees for a good
portion of the area Thursday through Saturday, but due to
temperatures remaining near normal, heat headlines are not expected
at this time, though the dew points will cause it to feel quite
uncomfortable.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Monday...

There is a mixed bag of flight conditions being observed across the
terminals, with isolated showers and lower intermittent CIGs this
morning. TAFs this morning proved to be tricky with the CIGs
bouncing back and fourth between MVFR and VFR, but have kept MVFR
CIGs as obs around the area suggest that the low CIGs will become
more prevalent over the next hour or so in the wake of the rain.
Shower/storm chances will be highest closer to the coast today , but
scattered aftn SHRA/TSRA are possible for all terminals (for now
this has mostly been handled with PROB30 groups). S-SW winds average
10-15 kt w/ gusts to 20 kt during the day today. Winds will drop
overnight, becoming light and variable. Anywhere that receives rain
this afternoon may see reduced VIS and low CIGs tonight into
tomorrow morning, but confidence was too low to include for now.

Outlook: Elevated shower/tstm chances continue through mid-
week, with periodic flight restrictions lingering, mainly from
early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy
rain. More typical summer time pattern for the latter half of
the week, with a somewhat lower coverage of late afternoon and
evening scattered SHRA/TSRA Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all but the upper
  rivers this morning.

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail from tonight
  through late week outside of local thunderstorm influences.

Low pressure is centered near Lake Ontario with a cold front
extending to the south into the higher Appalachian terrain while
surface high pressure remains anchored well offshore. SSW winds
average 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay/lower James River and Currituck
Sound. Offshore, SW winds are 15-25 kt with seas 4-6 ft near the
coast and 6-8 ft in the 20-60nm zones. No changes have been made to
the ongoing SCA headlines with the bay/river/sound SCAs still set to
expire at 10AM as winds decrease back into the 10-15 kt range. Seas
will be slower to subside from S to N this afternoon into the
evening. Continued southerly flow and generally quiet marine
conditions are then expected from tonight through late week as high
pressure lingers offshore. Showers and storms will remain in the
forecast each day but with little to no confidence in specific
timing or coverage. Widespread organized convection is not expected,
though locally degraded marine conditions are likely to accompany
the stronger storms through the week.

There is a High Rip current risk at the northern beaches today with
a Moderate Rip risk for the southern beaches. There will also likely
be moderate to strong longshore current at all beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>634-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...RHR