Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

486
FXUS61 KAKQ 011837
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
237 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Heat Advisory issued for interior central and eastern Virginia
  and northeast NC Wednesday

- Shower/storm chances increased some Saturday, especially
  inland

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions expected this week, peaking Wednesday
and Thursday. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of the
area Wednesday. Isolated storms are also possible, but most
locations are likely to stay dry.

2) Shower/storm chances increase late week as a cold front
approaches. Seasonable temps forecast behind the front for the
later half of the Labor Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions expected this week, peaking
Wednesday and Thursday. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions
of the area Wednesday. Isolated storms are also possible, but most
locations are likely to stay dry.

A late summer (or early fall, depending on what definition you
prefer) heat wave remains on tap for the upcoming week. Currently
seeing an early taste this afternoon with temps well into the
90s. Dew points are attempting to mix out into the 60s, so it
doesn`t feel too humid out despite the hot temps. Still expect
the peak of the heat Wednesday and Thursday as the center of the
upper-level ridge nudges east toward the TN Valley. There
remains some uncertainty regarding a backdoor front later
Wednesday afternoon which could temper the higher-end heat
potential further E and especially along the immediate coast and
the Eastern Shore. This would bring some onshore flow to these
areas in the afternoon. Away from here, peak heat indices of
around 105 degrees are expected by the late morning and
afternoon. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for
portions of central and eastern VA and northeast NC, minus those
closer to the coast. That boundary lifts back N on Thursday and
the sfc flow is likely to be S-SW for all the area, allowing
for widespread 105+ heat indices. In fact, some areas in SE VA
could near 110 F. A Heat Advisory is expected for the vast
majority of our CWA and will likely issue this either tonight or
tomorrow.

Regarding thunderstorm chances, isolated convection is expected both
today and Wednesday. The 12z CAMs as a whole are not all that
excited about either day, though areas across the N and
especially NE (Eastern Shore, etc.) are most favored for any
convection. Some of the CAMs and global models depict some
stronger convection, perhaps in the form of linear segments, to
the north of the local FA. It is not outside the realm of
possibility that those storms dive south into the local area.
Northwest flow aloft and strong instability means that any
storms that do form will have the potential for strong winds and
large hail. SPC has maintained the Marginal Risk for NE
portions of the area today and tomorrow. Tomorrow`s slight risk
does clip northern portions of the area and was actually
expanded a bit southward, though this risk remains highly
conditional on the actual presence of storms.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower/storm chances increase late week as a cold
front approaches. Seasonable temps forecast behind the front for the
later half of the Labor Day weekend.

The strong ridge aloft starts to break down/flatten late in the
week. Meanwhile, a sfc cold front will approach and pass through the
area sometime Friday, likely late. An initial round of storms will
be possible Thursday, but coverage still looks on the low side and
these chances ultimately depend on where that backdoor front is
situated. The most favorable overlap of forcing, shear, and
instability is expected Friday. At the surface, the aforementioned
front to our N will finally make appreciable progress and descend
into our local area. Aloft, NW flow will remain in place and
progressively strengthen as the associated trough drops southward
along the NE/Mid-Atlantic coast, increasing the deep-layer shear.
This all suggests a bonafide severe wx threat for the majority of
the area Friday, with the potential for several fast-moving clusters
capable of widespread damaging winds, along with isolated supercells
and large hail. SPC has maintained a slight risk for severe for the
area. The risk for storms (and any potential svr wx) Saturday is
dependent on where the front is situated during peak heating. PoPs
from the NBM have increased compared to the previous forecast and
this is likely due to the slower trend in the ECMWF and EPS.

A gradual relief from the heat begins Saturday and especially
Sunday- Monday. Storm chances also decrease as strong high
pressure builds in from the north. A first glance at the later
half of the Labor Day weekend looks promising for those wanting
favorable wx for outdoor activities.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/01 TAF period. SCT CU will
develop/persist through the afternoon, with mainly clear skies
tonight. While there remains a low chance for an evening or
overnight shower or storm, expected coverage and confidence
remains too low for any targeted mention in the TAFs. A light
W/WSW this afternoon continues into tonight, before shifting to
the N early Wednesday morning. Model guidance also suggests some
MVFR CIGs could sneak into SBY just before 18z Wednesday.

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions through Wednesday.
Shower and storm chances begin to increase Thursday
afternoon/evening (and especially Friday) at all terminals ahead
of the next cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 155 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- High pressure remains centered offshore through much of the
  week leading to sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions.

- A cold front approaches the waters late in the week and may
  bring elevated winds.

A ridge axis is currently stretched across the SE this afternoon,
which is promoting light SW winds. Seas are averaging between 1-2
ft, with waves in the Bay measuring 1 ft or less. The weak gradient
will remain in place through late afternoon until a cold front
buckles to the SW and approaches the far NE waters by early
Wednesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, winds will shift to the
S and increase to 10-15 kts. The front drops south to roughly the
VA/NC border through the day Wednesday before lifting back to the
north as a warm front Wednesday night into Thursday. In the wake of
the front, winds turn around to the N-NE ~10 knots. A cold front
will approach the region Thursday into Friday with strengthening
flow ahead of and (especially) behind the boundary this weekend.
This could bring elevated winds and the next potential SCA
conditions. Guidance has trended a little lower with winds behind
the front, with in-house wind probs suggesting a similar lower
forecasted winds. With that being said, the water is very warm and
with a cooler airmass moving over the area, this will likely lead to
at least SCA conditions across the Bay. Shower and storm chances
will ramp up during the late week period ahead of the front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ064-
     079>083-087>090-092-097-511>520-528-529.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB/NB