Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

700
FXUS61 KAKQ 230543
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
143 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Flood Watch has been extended to noon Thursday from south
central Virginia to the Virginia Eastern Shore including the
Peninsula.

The Flood Watch has been extended to midnight tonight for
Somerset, Wicomico, and Worcester counties in Maryland.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The threat of severe thunderstorms will continue this
afternoon and the potential for torrential rainfall to produce
scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding will increase
tonight into Thursday.

2) Below average temperatures are expected Friday through the
weekend, before trending back to seasonal for late July early
next week. There is a general trend toward drier conditions
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The threat of severe thunderstorms will
continue this afternoon and the potential for torrential
rainfall to produce scattered to numerous instances of flash
flooding will increase tonight into Thursday.

GOES water vapor channels depict a vigorous upper trough from
the Great Lakes to the Northeast with the Mid-Atlantic at the
base of the upper trough. Locally, there is a moist frontal band
along the base of the trough producing persistent showers/tstms
from southside to east central VA. The cold front is lagging to
the NW, and scattered showers/tstms have developed from central
VA to the MD Eastern Shore where there has been some better
surface heating. The environment remains rather favorable for a
few severe tstms with 40- 50kt of effective bulk shear and
~1500J/kg of MLCAPE. The main threat is locally damaging wind
gusts, although a brief tornado/waterspout is possible near the
coastlines. Additionally, locally heavy rain remains possible
with PW values of 2.0-2.3".

Attention then turns to the heavy rain/significant flash
flooding threat. Despite the ongoing drought conditions, there
remains a confident signal for flash flooding, especially in
urban and poor drainage areas. WPC has continued with a Moderate
Risk ERO for tonight across much of Hampton Roads down into
northern portions of NC. Much of the remainder of the area is in
a Slight Risk ERO today. Decent flow aloft should keep
individual cells moving but training storms on top of the
rainfall received yesterday and overnight early this morning
will likely cause scattered to numerous instances of flash
flooding. The axis of heavier showers and storms shifts further
to the SE on Thursday as the slow moving front gradually sinks
south. WPC has continued a Day 2 Moderate ERO across northeast
NC up to roughly the VA border and a Slight ERO across southeast
VA. A Flood Watch continues for SE VA and NE NC through
Thursday, and the Flood Watch from south central VA across the
Peninsula to the VA Eastern Shore has been extended through noon
Thursday. The Flood Watch from the RIC metro NW and N remains
in effect through midnight as the heaviest rain should trend
S/SE of this area later tonight. Additionally, the Flood Watch
for portions of the Lower MD Eastern Shore has been extended
through midnight to account for some scattered lingering
convection that is capable of producing brief heavy rainfall
across areas the received 2-4" last night.

All total, the QPF forecast through Thursday has generally 3-5",
with locally higher amounts across southside Hampton Roads into
northeast North Carolina.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures are expected Friday
through the weekend, before trending back to seasonal for late
July early next week. There is a general trend toward drier
conditions through the weekend into early next week.

The trend is for the cold front to push south of the area later
Thursday into Friday, but there is enough lingering moisture
for at least some chc to low-end likely PoPs in far SE VA and NE
NC. Rain chances then diminish to near to below climo for the
weekend into early next week. Below average temperatures with
highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected Friday through the
weekend, with dewpoints even dropping into the lower to mid 60s
across the northern tier of the area. Temperatures return to
near seasonal averages early next week with increasing humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Thursday...

A cold front is slowly dropping south across the region to start
off the forecast period. The best heavy rain/thunderstorm
potential early this morning is across the SE terminals (PHF,
ORF, ECG), where prevailing VSBYs will likely be MVFR, with
periodic IFR to LIFR VSBYs likely in any heavier showers or
storms. Heavy rain potentially lingers across SE VA/NE NC into
midday. CIGs will also lower to MVFR (and potentially IFR)
early this morning. At RIC, seeing MVFR VSBYs due to patchy fog
as well as some low stratus/IFR CIGs with the front sitting
just to the north of the terminal. CIGs improve at RIC by ~09z
as the front continues to slowly drop south. The front is
currently dropping through SBY leading to MVFR CIGs. Conditions
slowly improve from N to S throughout the day today. Winds shift
to the NNW as the front drops south, but not until 10-14z over
SE VA/NE NC, becoming NE all areas this afternoon.

Outlook: Generally drying out late Thursday, but a few additional
SHRA and flight restrictions may linger at ORF/ECG into Fri AM.
Mainly dry/VFR Friday-Saturday with a low chance for showers
across the SE terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the local waters through
  this afternoon.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible again today and Thursday with
  gusty winds and reduced visibility from heavy rain likely.

A slow moving cold front crosses the area late tonight/early
Thursday. Ahead of the front, SW winds peaked this morning, but
remain elevated with current obs showing 10-15 kt with gusts to 25
kt across local waters. Seas are 3-5 ft across nearshore coastal
waters (5-7 ft offshore) and 1-3 ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Winds
will continue to diminish this afternoon and evening, but due to the
gradual decline, Small Craft Advisories have been extended now
through 4 PM for the Ches. Bay, tidal rivers, and Currituck Sound as
frequent gusts above 20 kt are present. The SCA for the coastal
waters remains in effect through 6 PM as 5 ft seas will linger
behind falling winds. The cold front will cross the waters late
tonight/early Thursday resulting in a brief northerly surge across
the Ches. Bay around 2-8 AM Thursday with gusts around 20 kt. Local
wind probs show a 30-50% chance of sustained 18 kt winds and a 70-
90% chance of gusts to 18 kt. A subsequent SCA is likely for the
Ches. Bay following the expiration of the current advisory. Lighter
NE winds are likely Thursday afternoon and into the weekend with 2-
3 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected from this afternoon
through Thursday. Some storms may be severe with strong, erratic
winds and heavy rainfall capable of reducing visibility.

A Moderate Risk for Rip Currents is in effect across all local
beaches today through Friday from increased swell and onshore flow
on Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ097-098-529>531.
     Flood Watch until noon EDT today for VAZ065-066-079-081-
     087>090-092-100-523>525-528.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/AJZ
AVIATION...AJB/ERI
MARINE...KMC