Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

083
FXUS61 KAKQ 250656
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
256 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast today.

Trended temperatures lower for Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms increase in coverage this afternoon and
especially this evening, pushing eastward to the coast tonight
into early Sunday morning. Low pressure offshore then allows for
cool and dreary conditions Sunday, with lingering rain along
the coast. Drying out and becoming milder Monday.

2) There are several opportunities for (mainly
light) rainfall next week with near average temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms increase in coverage this
afternoon and especially this evening, pushing eastward to the coast
tonight into early Sunday morning. Low pressure offshore then allows
for cool and dreary conditions Sunday, with lingering rain along
the coast. Drying out and becoming milder Monday.

The backdoor cold front which sparked scattered showers and storms
yesterday has wavered a bit back N this morning. Observations place
it roughly along the I-64 corridor or perhaps a bit SW.
Regardless, outside of very isolated sprinkles in the Piedmont,
most of the area is dry and mild under a variably cloudy sky.

The front will remain relatively stationary for the morning and
afternoon hours today. Temperatures could be a challenge today as
there will likely be a large range with this front in place. The
Eastern Shore looks to stay in the upper 50s-mid 60s, with very warm
temps (well into the 80s) developing W of the Chesapeake Bay. By the
mid-late afternoon, there is high confidence in showers and storms
moving in from the W as a wave of low pressure rides SE along the
front, with a stronger cold front serving to advance the precip
eastward to the coast by this evening into tonight. Several of the
hi-res models also show some activity initiating off the front
itself this afternoon as a weak shortwave and pressure falls
overspread the area. In terms of the thunderstorm potential,
instability (overall) is quite meager given meager lapse rates aloft
and rather poor sfc moisture quality. However, similar to yesterday,
most models show locally enhanced dew points and instability in the
vicinity of the lingering stationary front this afternoon, which is
progged to reside in the vicinity of the I-64 corridor. Based on a
few model soundings, the best storm potential is roughly from
Williamsburg northwestward into RIC and our wrn/NW Piedmont
counties, on the warm side of the boundary. One more thing to watch
for will be locally enhanced low-level shear with the front in place
and the approaching low feature. While highly conditional, some CAMs
are hinting at a supercell or two trying to ride the boundary E and
SE. If this were to materialize, there would be an isolated
damaging wind and/or large hail threat. The tornado threat
appears very low due to the high-based nature of the convection.
Again, this is very conditional and would be confined to a
small area. SPC has no svr wx threat highlights for our area at
this time. Showers move eastward to the coast this evening and
tonight, with the storm threat diminishing with the loss of
heating. Aerial QPF should average around a half inch or so
though locally higher amounts of 1"+ are possible in areas that
see several rounds of convective activity. While beneficial,
this is unlikely to make a meaningful dent in the ongoing
drought conditions.

The front and low pressure system move offshore Sunday. However, the
sfc low will slow down and modestly deepen as a cutoff low
develops aloft. This will allow sfc high pressure to reinforce
and strengthen to our N. Therefore, expect a cool, dreary, and
potentially wet day Sunday with a cold air damming setup. The
highest PoPs are along the coast of SE VA and NE NC. A tightened
pressure gradient will also allow for breezy conditions along
the immediate coat. Have significantly undercut the NBM (which
struggles in CAD) and trended temperatures lower. Depending on
the exact configuration of the sfc pattern, particularly where
the low resides, Monday could also end up being cooler and
cloudier than shown in the forecast. This bears watching though
most guidance is at least a few degrees warmer. The best shot
for sunshine and warmth would be well inland and especially W of
I-95.


KEY MESSAGE 2...There are several opportunities for (mainly
light) rainfall next week with near average temperatures in the 70s.

Troughing may develop over most of the CONUS by the middle the later
half of next week, with several fronts and disturbances potentially
passing through the region. The latest CPC outlook favors slightly
above average rainfall in the 6-10 day period. 12z operational and
ensemble guidance shows another round of mainly light precip on
Tuesday with a potentially more substantial slug of moisture
expected late Wednesday. Specifics beyond this time are uncertain
but chance PoPs are in place through most of the week. Temperatures
generally hover around average for mid-late Spring with variable
cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR and variable mid-level cloudiness to start off the 06z TAF
period. While prevailing VFR should continue at most terminals
through this morning and afternoon, there is low confidence in
some reduced VSBY or lowered CIGs around ORF 10-13z. MVFR CIGs
are likely to develop over the next few hours at SBY and persist
through most of the day. In terms of rain chances, expect dry
conditions through at least the early afternoon. Low pressure
then approaches from the west this afternoon and evening,
bringing increasing chances of showers and embedded tstms from W
to E. While svr wx is generally not expected, a few storms
could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and reduced VSBY.
Most of the widespread rainfall holds off until after 00z and
potentially even after 06z near the coast. Winds average E to
ESE ~10 knots through a majority of the forecast period,
becoming gusty to 20-25 kt at SBY this afternoon. Late in the
period, IFR CIGs are likely at SBY, but should hold off at other
terminals until after 06z.

Outlook: MVFR to IFR CIGs develop at all sites Saturday night
into Sunday. High pressure builds to the N Sunday with an
onshore component to the wind persisting along the coast, which
could result in persistent lower CIGs. Model trends have been
for lingering clouds near the coast Monday, which could lead to
continued flight restrictions. Inland locations should dry out
with primarily VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 140 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through
  tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected across
  the northern coastal waters on Saturday as easterly winds
  increase to around 20 kt.

- Solid SCA conditions expected Saturday night through Monday as
  low pressure deepens offshore. Gusts to Gale Force will be
  possible over the coastal waters Sunday into Sunday night.
  Gale Watches have been issued for all coastal waters north of
  the VA-NC border from Sunday morning through Sunday
  evening/Sunday night.

A backdoor cold front is crossing the waters this afternoon, with E-
NE winds of 10-15 kt over most of the waters (and lighter winds
south). Winds increase out of the E to near 10-15 kt by this evening
with gusts to 20 kt. The main concern through this evening is the
chance for isolated showers/tstms. While severe weather is unlikely,
the strongest storms could produce gusts of ~40 kt over the marine
area, necessitating SMWs. The threat for storms quickly diminishes
after sunset, with E-ESE winds around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt
expected for most of the night.

Low pressure begins developing along the front Saturday, with E
winds increasing to ~20 kt with gusts to 25 kt over the coastal
waters N of Cape Charles during the day. The highest winds will be
over the MD coastal waters. Sub-SCA SE winds are expected over the
southern coastal waters on Sat. The low pressure system deepens as
it pushes offshore late Saturday night and especially Sunday. This
will allow the front to move to the SE of the local waters. With the
increasing pressure gradient behind the front, N-NE winds are
expected to increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt by mid morning
on Sun, with a period of 25-30 kt winds possible over the coastal
waters (w/ gusts to 35-40 kt) from late Sunday morning through the
first part of Sunday night. Occasional gale force gusts are possible
on the bay (especially near the mouth of the bay) during this time.
Local wind probabilities for Gale Force Gusts (34 kt+) are roughly
50-70% across the waters N of the VA-NC border. As such, have issued
Gale Watches for all ocean zones out to 60nm from Sunday morning-
late Sunday evening for these zones (not including NE NC). Have also
issued a ramp up SCA starting Saturday for the northern two
nearshore coastal zones. Winds diminish a few knots Sun night-Mon as
the low pulls farther offshore, but solid SCA conditions with N-NE
winds appear likely through Monday for all waters. Sub-SCA winds
finally return on Tuesday.

Seas build to 3-4 ft S/5-6 ft N on Saturday, before building to 8-14
ft (highest 60nm offshore) by late Sunday. Waves on the bay
gradually build to 3-6 ft (highest at the mouth) by late Sunday.
Seas slowly diminish early next week, but 5 ft seas could persist
nearshore through Tue/Tue night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ632-634>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ650-652.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     ANZ650-652-680-682.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to noon EDT
     Sunday for ANZ654.
     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     ANZ654-656-684-686.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...AJB/SW
MARINE...ERI/MAM