Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

764
FXUS61 KAKQ 081934
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
234 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories issued for the Ches. Bay and nearshore
coastal waters for tonight through Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Dry and seasonably cool through the middle of
the week.

2)A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday-Friday,
though models have trended drier. Below Average temperatures
follow behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably cool through the middle of
the week.

Beautiful fall weather is ongoing and will continue for the next
several days. Latest sfc analysis indicates high pressure centered
over the south-central CONUS expanding eastward to cover the
Southeast. It is being held back from building fully into the Mid-
Atlantic by low pressure systems both north of the Great Lakes and
near Nova Scotia. Aloft, A trough is in place over the Great Lakes
and New England placing the local area under relatively weak NW
flow. Not expecting temps to get quite so chilly tonight since the
positioning of the high will allow for a light SW breeze thus
limiting radiational cooling. Looking at lows in the low to mid 40s.
Tomorrow, a dry cold front will push south and NW winds will become
breezy during the afternoon behind it. While highs will be able to
get up into the mid 60s, gusts of 15 to 25 mph will keep it feeling
more like the upper 50s. Winds likely diminish in time for efficient
radiational cooling Monday night leading to lows in the 30s for most
places, low 40s immediately near the coast. High pressure slides
east, the center of it staying to the south, Tuesday and Wednesday.
Flow aloft becomes more zonal. As a result, temps become a little
milder with highs around 70 both days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for rain
Thursday-Friday, though models have trended drier. Below Average
temperatures follow behind the front.

Guidance is pretty much all on the same page in the 12z runs
signaling a big pattern shift at the end of the week. Everything
indicates an anomalous 500mb trough developing across the eastern
half of the country Thursday into Friday. This would mean that much
cooler, below average temperatures are on the way for Friday and the
weekend. NBM puts highs in the low-mid 50s through Sunday, but would
not be surprised to see some spots struggle to leave the 40s on
Saturday. Overnight lows look to be around freezing each night away
from the immediate coast. Jury is still out on how much rain we can
get out of this system. Ensembles did trend a tad lower with respect
to QPF. At this point it seems like even 0.5" is unlikely with the
wettest of the ensembles (ECMWF Ens) only show 20-40% probs for QPF
>0.5". The GEFS and GEPS barely show any probs in this category.
Probs for >0.1" jump up to 40-70%. Areas north of I-64 have the best
shot at appreciable rainfall Thursday evening through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1235 PM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/08 TAF period. TAFs are
mostly just a wind forecast skies should stay mostly clear and
no fog is expected. SW winds are generally light this afternoon
with the exception of SBY where there have been wind gusts up to
20kt. Winds turn to the W, then NW overnight and tomorrow
morning behind a dry cold front becoming gusty in the afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue into the
middle of next week. Another cold front approaches from the W
Thursday with rain possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated winds continue through Monday with W winds today shifting
to the SW tonight and then NW Monday. Small Craft Advisories go into
effect tonight for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters through
Monday evening.

- Calmer marine conditions return to the waters beyond Monday and
continue through most of the upcoming week. Degraded winds and
seas/waves are possible by Friday into weekend as low pressure
approaches the area, but confidence in details is low.

High pressure centered over the Deep South, extending towards the
Mid-Atlantic has allowed winds to relax over the local waters. W
winds are currently ~10-15 kt across the Ches. Bay and coastal
waters this afternoon with 2-4 ft seas and ~1 ft waves. A dry cold
front will cross the area from the W this evening and tonight. Ahead
of the front, SW winds will increase to ~20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
across the Ches. Bay and coastal waters, peaking shortly after
midnight (05z) for a ~6 hr period. The front will cross the waters
after sunrise shifting winds out of the NW, but the cold air
advection will lag some, resulting in a brief lull in SCA conditions
Monday morning. The CAA will reach the waters by Monday afternoon
with winds increasing again to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the
Ches. Bay and 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt on the coastal waters
(highest in the N waters). Additionally, seas will increase tonight
to 3-5 ft, remaining elevated through Monday evening. 6-7 ft seas
are possible beyond 20 nm Monday. Waves in the bay will generally be
2-3 ft through Monday. With this, SCAs have been issued for the
Ches. Bay and coastal waters beginning tonight through Monday night.

High pressure will build into the area late Monday night through mid
week, allowing winds to fall below SCA criteria. Winds will be mostly
SW ~10 kt on Tuesday, light and variable Wednesday, and S ~10-15 kt
on Thursday. Seas also average 2-3 ft Tuesday through Thursday. By
mid week, a low pressure system looks to form in the midwest,
potentially approaching the region and moving up the coast. There is
still much uncertainty with the track of the system, but elevated
winds and seas are possible Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Monday for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday
     for ANZ631-632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Monday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...KMC