Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

943
FXUS61 KAKQ 100951
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
551 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation for 12z TAFs
Slight decrease in QPF for Monday`s cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front brings widespread rain and cooler temperatures
late tonight into tomorrow.

2) Seasonable temperatures mid to late week. Another cold front
brings showers and perhaps a few storms late Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings widespread rain and cooler
temperatures late tonight into tomorrow.

Looks like it will be a warm and mostly sunny Mother`s Day with
temps climbing into the mid 80s. Morning clouds across the south
clear out for a sunny afternoon. Clouds then build back in from the
NW as a cold front and low pressure along it approach the FA. Could
see a few late afternoon through late evening showers across the far
north and northwest, but otherwise staying dry until early tomorrow
morning.

Showers move into the region along and behind the front/low pressure
starting with the NW and central portions of the area in the
morning, then progressing SE in the afternoon. The 00z guidance
has trended a bit drier for this system. It was never supposed
to be a prolific rain maker, but the GFS and Canadian backed off
precip almost entirely, which seems a bit dramatic. The high
res guidance, however, pretty consistently has held on to the
widespread showers. The QPF is still pretty low, though. HREF
probs for >0.1" are 70- 100% for the majority of the area.
Jumping up to probs for >0.25" drops the probs to 45-60% and are
limited to the NW half of the area. Otherwise, forecasting a
cooler day Monday with highs in the mid 60s for most, low 70s in
the far south.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures mid to late week.
Another cold front brings showers and perhaps a few storms late
Wednesday into Thursday.

Below normal temps continue Tues with highs around 70 inland and
onshore flow keeps temps in the 60s close to the coast. Temps then
return to near normal Wed-Fri and potentially above average over the
weekend.

Another cold front brings our next chance at rain late Wednesday
into Thursday. Not much has changed in the 00z guidance suite for
this system compared to previous runs. Still looking at strong
dynamics aloft, but the overnight timing really limits instability
for storms. Even the 90th percentile MUCAPE from the LREF is less
than 400 J/KG. As mentioned in previous discussions, a timing change
and an increase in instability could lead to a risk for severe
storms given the dynamics in place. Unfortunately for the drought,
there`s not much in the way of QPF either. Both the GEFS and Euro
Ens only have ~70-80% for >0.1" and probs drop to basically 0% for
>0.5". Additional showers or storms are possible during the day
Thursday close to the coast as an upper low spins nearby. Mostly dry
conditions to end the work week through the weekend as sfc high
pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 550 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/10 TAFs. BKN high level
clouds across the south clear out later this morning with mostly
clear skies persisting the rest of the day. BKN-OVC clouds then
fill in from the NW ahead of a cold front after 21z, reaching
RIC and SBY between 00-03z. Light SW winds today, becoming N
behind the cold front late tonight/early Monday. There`s a
chance that SBY or RIC could see a shower by the end of the 12z
period, but the bulk of the incoming precip should come after
12z tomorrow.

Outlook: An area of low pressure approaches the region tonight
into tomorrow, bringing showers and the potential for
occasional flight restrictions. Mainly VFR Monday night through
Thursday, with a chc of showers Wednesday aftn and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail today and into the early part of
  tonight.

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued Monday for the Bay,
  lower James, Currituck sound, and the Ocean S of Parramore
  Island for a period of elevated N to NE winds.

The latest wx analysis depicts a weak pressure gradient across
the local area, with a warm front situated N across NJ. Winds
are rather light, averaging 5-10 kt from the SW, though seas are
elevated on the Ocean at 4 ft+ due to E-SE swell that has not
been picked up well by the guidance. Will not be issuing any
headlines for this, but expect occasional wave heights to ~ 6ft,
at least through the morning hrs. Otherwise, the light pressure
gradient, and significant warming inland today (with highs in
the 80s) will allow for widespread aftn sea/bay breezes, and
winds shifting to the E-SE at ~10 kt.

Sub-SCA conditions likely last through most of tonight, but all
of the model guidance has trended a bit faster with the
northerly surge pushing S down the Bay prior to sunrise Monday
morning. This will allow the winds to shift to the N-NE and
increase to near 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt on Monday as low
pressure deepens while tracking east along the frontal boundary
to our south. The low continues to intensify offshore Mon night
as the next area of high pressure builds in from the NW Tuesday.
There are still some model differences with respect to timing
and the exact position of the sfc features and the 00z guidance
continues to trend a bit weaker with winds, at least across
northern portions of the FA. Regardless, have issued SCAs for
the Bay starting at 4 AM Monday, and gradually spreading to the
lower James and Ocean zones by 7 AM, and eventually to the
Currituck sound and NC Ocean later Monday morning. The models
have trended more pronounced with a drop in winds for northern
areas Mon aftn/evening well after the initial FROPA, and with
more uncertainty as to how strong the 2nd surge will be late
monday night, did not extend the SCAs in the Bay and lower James
beyond Mon aftn/evening. Seas will build to 5-6 ft nearshore in
NC, and 4-5 ft off the Va Capes in the N-NE flow even if
frequent gusts on the ocean don`t quite meet SCA criteria.
Conditions improve later Tuesday as the system moves well
offshore with high pressure becoming centered over the local
area. The high slides offshore Wed, with a return to southerly
flow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...LKB