Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

294
FXUS61 KAKQ 150755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
355 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Potential for significant severe weather continues to increase
ahead of a strong cold front Monday. The Storm Prediction Center
has introduced a Moderate Risk (level 4/5), and has increased
probabilities to 60% for wind and 15% for tornadoes across much
of the area.

Gale Watches have been issued for most local waters on Monday ahead
of and just behind the strong cold frontal passage.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)...Showers and storms prevail Monday, following increasing
moisture and shower chances late today into tonight as a warm
front lifts north. The greatest threat for severe storms will be
from mid to late morning through the early evening hours. SPC
has introduced a Moderate Risk(level 4/5) for western and
central portions of the area with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5)
in place for the rest of the area (except eastern portions of
the Eastern Shore with a Slight Risk).

 2) Cold and breezy Tuesday, with a hard freeze likely for most of
the area Tuesday night/early Wed morning. It remains dry, with
seasonable temperatures returning late in the week.


.DISCUSSION...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms prevail Monday, following
increasing moisture and shower chances late today into tonight as a
warm front lifts north. The greatest threat for severe storms will
be from mid to late morning through the early evening hours. SPC has
introduced a Moderate Risk(level 4/5) for western and central
portions of the area with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) in place for
the rest of the area (except eastern portions of the Eastern Shore
with a Slight Risk).

High pressure is noted just NE of the local area early this morning
with rapidly deepening surface low pressure over the central Plains.
Aloft, an amplifying upper trough is digging into the northern
Plains with a strong jet streak poised to round the base of the
trough. This jet streak will serve to further amplify the trough and
deepen the surface low as it tracks from the plains into the Midwest
today. Southeasterly/onshore flow will prevail through most of the
day today as high pressure slowly drifts farther offshore. Clouds
will thicken and lower through the day ahead of an expected warm
frontal passage tonight. Temperatures will still rise into the 60s
for most of the area with some low 70s possible across the southern
counties and some upper 50s for coastal portions of the Eastern
Shore. Enough moisture convergence and lift makes it into far
southern VA and NE NC by mid-late afternoon for some low-end shower
chances. Shower chances increase more significantly in the evening
as the deeper moisture lifts north. Forecast soundings show little
in the way sfc-based instability until after ~09Z/5AM Monday which
will be confined to the far S. Instability aloft does increase
earlier, and MUCAPE of 200-400 J/Kg spreads north after midnight,
which could lead to a few rumbles of thunder. SPC has introduced a
Marginal Risk for strong storms, mainly for the early morning hours
of Monday behind the warm frontal passage. Wind fields aloft will be
increasing during this time and some stronger cells are possible
despite the unfavorable diurnal timing. Temperatures will be quite
mild tonight with lows only falling into the 50s to low 60s across
the area, and probably rising overnight in many areas as the
southerly low level flow increases.

The setup on Monday continues to look extremely favorable for severe
thunderstorms, with all modes of severe possible (wind, hail,
tornadoes). 00z guidance continues to be in excellent agreement
showing the extremely robust mid and upper level trough amplifying
well to our west this evening, while taking on a negative tilt, and
eventually becoming nearly cutoff over the western Great Lakes
Monday. At the sfc, intense low pressure is forecast to lift NE from
the mid MS Valley to the western Great Lakes late Sun night/early
Mon, with all of the forecast models depicting this feature
deepening to 980mb or lower and then occluding as the surface and
upper level features stack vertically. The 00Z/15z models have
trended toward a slightly slower progression of the surface and
upper level features on Monday.

A prefrontal surface trough will sharpen to our west Monday morning
into the early afternoon. Ahead of the trough/cold front, robust
moisture transport will bring 60s dew points northward into the
entire region. Very strong winds aloft (on the order 120-150 kts)
will overspread the region in tandem with a 60-70 kt low level jet.
Deep layer shear will likely be in excess of 50 kts which is more
than sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms, and potential
supercells. The deepening sfc trough will enhance what will already
be impressive shear, and potentially allow the sfc to 1 km winds to
back to the SSE ahead of the cold front. Forecast
soundings/hodographs show very favorable curvature in the low levels
with 0-1 SRH generally on the order of 200-400 m2/s2, and 0-3km SRH
even higher still.

The local area will be in the right entrance region of the mid and
upper level jet on Monday which will provide forcing for ascent even
well ahead of the surface cold front. The latest hi-res guidance
shows a batch of mid to late morning convection across portions of
the area. These storms could be strong to severe with the potential
for discrete or semi-discrete supercellular convection. All severe
hazards are possible (including wind, large hail, and tornadoes),
especially if these storms can maintain some separation from each
other. A concerning development in some of the latest hi-res models
shows the potential for a lull in convective coverage behind these
morning/early afternoon storms with some possible breaks in the
clouds, allowing surface based instability to potentially rise into
the 1000-1500 J/Kg range ahead of the main squall line. If this
scenario where to materialize, the potential for widespread damaging
winds and strong tornadoes would increase above and beyond the
already very robust potential we are expecting. SPC has introduced a
Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for most of the area. This is a fairly
rare occurrence (especially for the Mid-Atlantic) and highlights the
potential for a very significant and widespread severe weather
episode across the region. Severe wind probs are now as high as 60%
for the NW 2/3 of the area with tornado probs up to 15% for the
western half of the area. While the probabilities drop off a bit for
the eastern and southeastern portions of the area, damaging winds
and tornadoes are still quite possible before the front finally
moves offshore in the evening. This is a very potent severe weather
setup and users are encouraged to have multiple ways to receive
warnings on Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold and breezy Tuesday, with a hard freeze likely
for most of the area Tuesday night/early Wed morning. It remains
dry, with seasonable temperatures returning late in the week.

The airmass behind this system will be much cooler (actually
trending to well below normal Tue-Wed) as well as significantly
drier. Highs mainly in the 40s Tue-Wed. Most of the area can expect
a hard freeze Tue night/Wed AM as strong >1030mb sfc high builds
overhead, with diminishing winds and lows ranging through the 20s.
Even the coast will likely see at least a light freeze with lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s, the possible exception being the NC OBX.
Gradually trending warmer by late in the week, and remaing dry with
highs back into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions are in place this morning with mostly clear
skies. SE winds mainly 5-10 kt through sunrise, increasing to
10-15 kt with gusts ~20 kt as mixing gets underway. Clouds will
gradually thicken and lower through the day and MVFR CIGs
possible by the mid-late afternoon at ECG, ORF, PHF, and RIC. A
few showers are also possible near ECG after 20z but will be
scattered in nature. Showers become more prevalent after 00z
Monday as well as IFR CIGs. Some restricted VSBY is also
possible in showers and fog. A period of LIFR CIGs is possible
late in the period as a warm front lifts northward. LLWS will
also increase this evening, mainly SE at 45 kt.

Outlook: LLWS is also possible for most of the overnight hours
Sunday. A strong cold front will bring the potential for
additional flight restrictions and strong to severe TSRA Monday.
Even outside of any storms, strong, gusty southerly winds
prevail into Mon evening with gusts to 25-35 kt expected.
Dry/VFR Tue with breezy WNW winds, remaining dry Wed-Thu with
less wind.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front approaches from the west Monday and
  crosses the coast Monday night. Small Craft Advisory
  conditions are likely beginning today well in advance of the
  front with a period of gale conditions probable Monday
  afternoon and evening, primarily for the coastal waters and
  Chesapeake Bay.

- There is an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  Monday. The main threat is strong to damaging wind gusts
  along with the potential for a few waterspouts as the cold
  front moves through.

1030mb high pressure is centered across the Northeast early this
morning. An ESE, then SE wind increases today into tonight with
1030+mb high pressure drifting off the New England coast and strong
low pressure well to the W. SCAs are in effect for most of the
marine area beginning later this morning into the afternoon and
continuing through Monday morning.

Deepening low pressure lifts NE through the Great Lakes Monday with
a strong cold front approaching from the W, which then crosses the
Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night. High-end SCA conditions are likely,
with a period of low-end gale conditions probable late Monday
aftn/evening in southerly flow ahead of the front, and also briefly
in WNW flow immediately behind the front during the late evening/
early overnight hours. Modestly strong pressure falls, a tight
pressure gradient, and a 60-75kt LLJ favor a 3-6hr period of
southerly gales, primarily for the northern coastal waters, but a
~3hr period of low-end gale conditions is also possible for the
southern coastal waters and Ches. Bay. However, the limiting factor
will be very stable low-level lapse rates with a mild and moist
airmass overspreading cold ocean water. Local wind probs depict the
greatest probability of 34kt gusts over the coastal waters N of the
VA/NC border, and even a 30-50% chc of 43kt gusts N of Chincoteague
(but this may be generous given the cold water). Gale Watches remain
in effect for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles from late Monday
morning through late Monday evening, and Gale Watches have been
added for the southern coastal waters and Ches. Bay from Monday aftn
into late Monday evening. SCAs have been extended (or added in the
case of the upper rivers and begin Monday morning) and run through 6
AM Tuesday morning. Additionally, there is a risk for strong tstm
wind gusts with waterspouts possible in tstms ahead of the front.
Seas build to 5-8ft S to 9-12ft N Monday into Monday night, with 3-
5ft waves in the Ches. Bay and locally higher at the mouth of the
Bay.

Remaining breezy Tuesday, with a secondary surge possible for the
Ches. Bay and coastal waters Tuesday night. This may allow for SCA
conditions to continue for portions of the marine area. Otherwise, m
ore benign marine conditions are expected by the middle of next week
as high pressure settles across the region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ630-631-656-658.
     Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
     ANZ630>632-634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR/SW
MARINE...AJZ/NB