Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

716
FXUS61 KAKQ 231118
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
718 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch was cancelled for everywhere except southside
Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential for heavy rain continues across the
southeast today. A Flood Watch remains in effect for south-central
VA through this morning and Hampton Roads and northeast NC through
this evening.

2) Below average temperatures are expected tomorrow
through the weekend, before trending back to seasonal for late July
early next week. There are daily chances for afternoon storms, but
overall drier than the current wet pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 630 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Potential for heavy rain continues across the
southeast today. A Flood Watch remains in effect for south-central
VA through this morning and Hampton Roads and northeast NC through
this evening.

630am Update.. Latest analysis indicates the cold front has
pushed nearly to the NC/VA border. As a result, the heaviest
rain is now limited to the NC counties and extreme southeast
Virginia. As a result, the Flood Watch was cancelled for
everywhere except those areas. Light rain will persist in the
areas previously in the Flood Watch, but the threat of flooding
has largely diminished in the cancelled zones.

Previous Discussion..

A cold front continues to slowly drop across the
Mid-Atlantic and was located across northern counties of the
forecast area as of early morning analysis. A mid level trough
is positioned over the east coast with the axis starting to
pivot into central VA. Latest radar shows showers with a few
rumbles of thunder out ahead of the front filling in across
southeast VA and interior NE NC. With PW values between 2-2.2",
there`s plenty of moisture to work with to bring heavy rain to
the area. The front will eventually drop south and bring dry air
with it. However, the snail`s pace speed of the front likely
means wet conditions in the south/southeast through at least
this evening. Despite drought conditions, multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall may cause flooding. The Excessive Rainfall
Outlook from the WPC highlights NE NC and southside Hampton
Roads in a Moderate Risk (lvl 3/4), meaning the potential for
numerous instances of flooding. A Slight Risk (lvl 2/4)buffers
the Moderate and includes the rest of southeast VA. Rain may
linger across NE NC and extreme SE VA through tonight or even
early Friday depending on where exactly the front settles, but
rain rates should be overall lower. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for southern VA and NE NC. The watch is scheduled to
expire for most of the VA counties (excluding southside Hampton
Roads) at 1pm today, though several counties along the northern
and western edge of it will likely get trimmed before then as
the heavier rain shifts south. The QPF for today and tonight is
2-3" across NE NC and extreme SE VA on top of the 1-2" that is
expected in SE VA before sunrise.

For the rest of the FA, today will be a teaser for early fall
conditions with highs in the upper 70s and dewpoints dropping into
the low 60s and maybe even upper 50s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures are expected tomorrow
through the weekend, before trending back to seasonal for late July
early next week. There are daily chances for afternoon storms, but
overall drier than the current wet pattern.

The cold front will eventually make it south of the area sometime
tonight or early Friday, but there will be enough lingering
moisture for at least some chc to low-end likely PoPs in far SE
VA and NE NC Fri and Fri night. The FA will then be positioned
under an UL trough over the weekend with onshore flow in place
at the sfc. This will lead to cooler, below-average
temperatures for a few days. Highs on Fri and Sat will be in
the upper 70s to around 80. Warming up slightly for Sunday with
highs in the low to mid 80s. Near-average temps return early
next week. Looking to be overall a dry weekend, but a few
isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out during the
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

A cold front is dropping south across the region to start off
the forecast period. The best +RA/TSRA potential this morning
is across the SE terminals (ORF/ECG). Prevailing VSBYs will
likely be MVFR, with periodic IFR in any heavier RA/TS. Heavy
rain likely lingers across SE VA/NE NC through midday, followed
by scattered -SHRA and periodic VIS reductions possible into the
evening. Conditions gradually improve from N to S throughout
the day today as the front moves south of the area, though
MVFR/VFR clouds will still hang around, especially RIC and
south. Winds remain NNE AOB 10 kt through the day.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR Friday-Saturday with a low chance for
showers across the SE terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
  until 10 AM EDT this morning.

- Outside of a heavy shower or thunderstorm across the southern waters
  today into Friday, generally benign/sub-SCA conditions are
  expected through this weekend and into early next week.

A cold front is currently entering the northern waters and will
continue to slowly drop south this morning through this afternoon.
The front then linger near or just south of the far southern waters
Friday into this weekend. Latest observations show NW winds of 15 to
20 knots with gusts to 25 knots over the far northern waters. The
remainder of the waters are generally seeing W-WSW winds averaging
10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Seas are averaging 3 to 4
feet nearshore and 5 to 7 feet offshore. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay
are generally running around 1 to 3 feet. A briefly N-NW surge is
anticipated as the front continues to drop south with winds gusting
~20 to 25 knots across the Chesapeake Bay this morning. Otherwise,
lighter, sub-SCA N to NE winds are expected this afternoon
throughout this weekend over all of the waters, with seas averaging
2 to 4 feet and waves in the bay 1 to 2 feet. Benign, sub-SCA
conditions look to continue into early next week.

A Moderate Risk for Rip Currents is in effect across all local
beaches today through Friday from increased swell and onshore flow
on Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ097-098-529>531.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AJB/JKP
MARINE...AJB