Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

577
FXUS61 KAKQ 111735
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
135 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion. SPC has trimmed the Slight (Level 2/5) Risk
slightly and it only remains in place from Louisa to part of
the Lower MD Eastern Shore. The Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk has
also been trimmed and only includes areas down to I-64. A
strong cold front is still expected to cross the area Wed night
into Thurs AM, bringing additional showers and a change in
airmass. A Gale Watch remains in effect for Thursday for the
mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, and the Ocean between Cape Charles
and Currituck Beach Light.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Record warmth is expected again today, with upper
80s forecast for portions of the area. Any thunderstorm development
most likely remains to our north and west this afternoon and
evening. There is a 20-30% of thunderstorms across northern portions
of the area. However, if storms do develop, they will likely be
strong to severe with damaging winds and perhaps large hail.

2) A stronger cold front crosses the area Thursday
morning-midday, bringing a very good chance of rain, along with a
low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first part of
Thursday. A few snowflakes may mix in Thursday afternoon but no
accumulation is expected. Cooler temperatures and dry weather return
to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warmth is expected again today, with upper
80s forecast for portions of the area. Any thunderstorm development
most likely remains to our north and west this afternoon and
evening. There is a 20-30% of thunderstorms across northern portions
of the area. However, if storms do develop, they will likely be
strong to severe with damaging winds and perhaps large hail.

Early morning wx analysis shows a northern stream low pressure
system tracking across the Great Lakes with a southern stream system
over Texas. The flow aloft is WSW over the Mid-Atlantic ahead of
these two systems. Very mild with temps in the 60s at this hour with
a light southerly breeze. Record warmth is expected again today with
high confidence in record highs for at least some of our climate
sites. Upper 80s are possible inland, with lower-mid 80s likely for
much of the area. The northern stream low deepens as it tracks NE
toward the Saint Lawrence Valley by late today, and it will drag a
cold front toward the region. While the best mid/upper height falls
and stronger upper level dynamics from the approaching trough remain
to our north and west today, the very warm temperatures and lower-
mid 60s dew points will allow for 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop
by the mid to late afternoon. In addition, the 500mb flow will
increase to 50-60 kt over far northern portions of the FA. However,
there will be a cap around 750-850mb that will need to be broken for
convection to develop this afternoon/evening. For what it`s worth,
the 00z guidance has trended farther north with tstms and none of
the operational models (including the CAMs and RRFS) have any sort
of convection over the area today as they are forecasting the cap to
hold strong. Nevertheless, still think there is about a 20-30%
chance of convective initiation from Louisa/Fluvanna Counties to the
northern neck and MD Eastern Shore. If storms break the cap and
develop, they will likely be strong to severe with damaging winds
being the main threat, though large hail and even a brief tornado
possible given ~100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. While confidence in storm
initiation continues to be quite low, this setup will continue to be
monitored. Given the trends in the 00z guidance, SPC has trimmed the
Slight (Level 2/5) Risk slightly and it only remains in place from
Louisa to part of the Lower MD Eastern Shore. The Marginal (Level
1/5) Risk has also been trimmed and only includes areas down to I-
64.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front crosses the area Thursday
morning-midday, bringing a very good chance of rain, along with
a low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first
part of Thursday. A few snowflakes may mix in Thursday afternoon
but no accumulation is expected. Cooler temperatures and dry
weather return to end the week.

The above mentioned southern stream low pressure system tracks
across the Gulf today before moving into the Carolinas Thursday.
Meanwhile to the north, the potential sub-990mb northern stream low
is expected to drag a strong cold front through the local area
Thursday AM to midday. The vast majority of the precipitation
associated with the front is progged to fall behind the front with
the best precip chances from late morning-early evening as that
southern stream system tracks just to our south. Temps will not drop
much below 70F prior to the FROPA Thu AM as winds veer from the S to
SW.

Temperatures will likely warm a couple degrees across SE VA/NE NC
Thurs AM before the cold front moves through. Dew pts will actually
fall a few degrees tonight with the winds veering to the SW just
ahead of the front. So not expecting any sfc-based instability later
tonight. However, as the front crosses SE VA/NE NC between 9 AM-1 PM
Thursday, some destabilization is possible ahead of the frontal
boundary with the onset of daytime heating (temps warm into the mid
70s). This could lead to the development of a narrow line of gusty
showers just ahead of the front, which could easily bring ~40 mph
gusts. However, confidence in gusts approaching severe levels (50
kt) remains very low at this time. Regardless of any convection, a
few hours worth of 30-40 mph gusts are likely across much of the
area as winds become NW right behind the front. Temps are expected
to drop from around 70F to the 40s very quickly following the FROPA.
In fact, some areas could drop into the mid-upper 30s Thu aftn and a
few wet snowflakes could mix in toward the tail end of the precip. A
brief period of light snow cannot be completely ruled out. However,
no accumulation is expected. Even though some of the ensembles have
trended upward with respect to snow QPF and show notable
probabilities of 1" of snow at a 10:1 ratio, this would very likely
all melt when it hits the ground given the warm antecedent
conditions and snow rates that are not that impressive. With the
strong front coming through, high temperatures shown in the forecast
are likely to be achieved early in the day, with those falling temps
as the day proceeds.

Looking through the extended, seasonably cooler and dry weather
returns Friday, with highs dropping back into the 50s despite
plentiful sunshine. Milder conditions with temps approaching 70 F
are forecasted by the weekend as transient high pressure slides
over, also supporting continued mainly dry wx. Another low pressure
system and cold front brings a good chance of showers (with perhaps
an isolated tstm) to the area on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR prevails for the bulk of the forecast period with SCT-BKN
high level cloud cover through this evening and most of the
overnight period. Could see a stray shower this evening at SBY,
but confidence is very low. Attention then turns to a strong
cold front set to cross the area through the day tomorrow. This
will bring MVFR CIGs, widespread rain, and gusty winds. Could
see a few rumbles of thunder in the morning in the southeast.
A quick drop in temperatures could bring a brief changeover to
snow with little to no accumulation expected, but this would
likely be after 18z. SW winds quickly change to the NW behind
the front with gusts of 25kt+ in the afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Thursday night and persist into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Wednesday...

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake
  Bay, tidal rivers, and northern coastal waters from this
  evening into Thursday.

- Gale Watch timing has been pushed a few hours later for both
  start and end times and now also includes the Currituck Sound
  along with to the mouth of the bay and southern coastal
  Atlantic waters.

Broad low pressure is noted from the southern Plains northeastward
into the Midwest early this morning. Surface low pressure deepens
near the Great Lakes today which will slowly tighten the pressure
gradient over the local waters. Southerly winds mainly 10-15 kt
today, becoming SSW/SW and increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25
kt this evening into the overnight hours. Cool near-shore waters
will limit mixing today but the synoptic gradient will steadily
sharpen this evening. SCA headlines have been issued for the Ches
Bay, rivers, and Atlantic coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light
from this evening through early Thursday evening. 00z guidance has
trended toward slightly slower timing for the strong cold front to
cross the waters. Still expect this very strong front to be
near the northern waters by sunrise Thursday and be south of the
area by early Thursday afternoon. In coordination with the
Morehead City WFO, opted to not upgrade the Gale Watches to Gale
Warnings with this forecast package. That said, 00z guidance
continues to show very impressive pressure rises (9-12mb in 6
hours) immediately behind the cold front and winds could gust
aoa 35 kt as the boundary comes through. It still appears that
the best chance for prolonged gusts in this range will be
focused across the southern third of the area from mid morning
through late afternoon. This includes the mouth of the bay,
Currituck Sound, and Atlantic coastal waters south of Cape
Charles Light. Gale Watch headlines have been adjusted
accordingly. Elsewhere, the period of post-frontal 30-35 kt
gusts will be shorter and will likely be handled with short-fuse
SMWs as needed. The gradient begins to relax Thursday afternoon
and especially during the evening and overnight hours.

Seas will build to 4-6 ft N and 3-5 ft S in the pre-frontal SW flow
but should fall off quickly Thursday afternoon as flow turns
offshore, the exception being in the Gale Watch area of the Ocean
where seas may briefly build as high as 6-7 ft. Waves in the
Chesapeake Bay will increase to 2-4 ft ahead of the front and reach
to 3-5 ft through much of Thursday during the stronger NNW winds.
Another system moves by well to the north on Friday with potential
for another period of SCA conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

Record highs were set at ORF (83F), RIC (85F), and SBY (83F),
while the record high was tied at ECG (82F) yesterday. Both
record highs and record high mins are likely for today (3/11).


- Record High Temps for today (3/11)

                 Record
                High/Year
Location          3/11
--------          ----
Richmond        82 (1990)
Norfolk         82 (1990)
Salisbury       76 (2000)
Eliz. City      81 (2016)

- Record High Min Temps for today (3/11)

Location        Rec High Min
  --------      ------------
- Richmond      56 (1955)
- Norfolk       62 (1925)
- Salisbury     51 (1955)
- Eliz. City    58 (1967)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ630>632-638-650-652-654.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ634.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...LKB/RHR
CLIMATE...ERI/LKB