Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

958
FXUS61 KAKQ 150729
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
229 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Discussion.

Nudged temperatures down slightly, with increased cloud cover
this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frost and Freeze headlines are in effect for portions of
Eastern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina late tonight
through later this morning. Dry, chilly weather continues
through Tuesday, before temperatures moderate for mid to late
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost and Freeze headlines remain in effect
through early this morning for portions of eastern Virginia and
northeast North Carolina. Chilly weather continues through
Tuesday, with additional frost or freeze headlines possible
tonight where the growing season remains active.

Early morning weather analysis shows an upper-level low still
in place from Atlantic Canada into coastal New England, with a
strong attending trough extending south into the eastern Gulf
Coast. At the surface, 1028+ mb high pressure centered over the
mid-Mississippi River Valley continues to slowly build east
behind a surface trough axis oriented well offshore.

Temperatures as of this writing are mainly in the low to mid
30s just inland from the Chesapeake Bay west to the VA piedmont,
with mid 30s to low 40s along the immediate coast, including
the Lower Eastern Shore. While skies have cleared out this
morning, the boundary layer has remained mixed just enough to
hold up temperatures along the coast. However, still expect
winds to relax a bit just inland, where a Freeze Warning remains
in place from Bertie County, NC up to the City of Suffolk. A
Frost Advisory also remains in effect just to the east, from
interior portions of eastern Virginia and coastal northeast
North Carolina where the growing season has not yet technically
ended. The growing season will end across most of our counties
today, leaving only northeast North Carolina counties east of
the Chowan River along with Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and
Virginia Beach active until later this month. An updated Public
Information Statement will be issued later this morning.

Very little change in sensible weather through tomorrow, as the
surface high slowly slides east and the upper-level low
gradually weakens. After a sunny start, clouds will once again
increase late this morning and this afternoon. Nudged forecast
highs down slightly, as guidance has been slightly too warm
given the persistent stratocumulus deck over the past few days.
Highs today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50s. Clearing
skies and a relaxing pressure gradient tonight will allow lows
to fall into the lower 30s inland and mid to upper 30s along the
coast. While not quite as breezy as yesterday, NNW winds will
still nevertheless occasionally gust to 15-20 mph this
afternoon, before quickly diminishing after sunset.

Dry weather looks to prevail throughout the week ahead, as high
pressure builds into the area and becomes anchored overhead for
the mid to late week period. Aloft, the trough looks to finally
move offshore by late Monday into Tuesday, with upstream
ridging building in behind it. This pattern will support a
moderating temperature trend from midweek through next weekend.
Forecast highs reach the mid 60s by Wednesday, warming into the
upper 60s to near 70 inland Thursday through Sunday. Even as the
air mass turns milder, dry conditions and efficient radiational
cooling under clear skies and light winds should still allow
morning lows to fall into the lower 30s across inland areas,
with upper 30s to low 40s closer to the coast. And unfortunately
there remains little to no prospect for welcome rainfall over
the next week to 10 days.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions across area terminals early this morning prevail
through the 06z/15 TAF period. Clouds have scattered out largely
as expected, as high pressure builds into the region. A mainly
clear sky is expected over the area through mid-morning, when
clouds begin to increase again due to the NW flow and the
persistent upper low over the eastern seaboard. CIGs remain in
VFR range, but become BKN once again for a majority of the area
by early to mid afternoon (bases ~5 to 7 kft AGL). Winds remain
light early this morning, but become gusty (~20 knots) again by
late morning into this afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are favored through midweek, as high
pressure builds over the region. Gusty NW winds, gradually
diminishing tonight through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue through this morning for the
coastal waters and through this afternoon for the Chesapeake Bay.

- High pressure builds into the region this afternoon through at
least Thursday with sub-advisory conditions expected.

Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over the MS Valley
early this morning. Winds are NW around 20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt
over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Waves are 1-3 ft with seas of
2-4 ft in the coastal waters and 4-7 ft beyond 60 nm. NW winds will
diminish today to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, remaining out of the
NW. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 7 AM for the
coastal waters and through 1 PM for the Chesapeake Bay. Will note
that gusts to ~20 kt may be possible this afternoon and evening in
the Ches. Bay, as another surge of CAA filters in. This looks to be
marginal and confidence is too low to extend SCAs in the Ches. Bay
at this time. Will continue to monitor trends and obs.

High pressure builds into the region this evening through at least
Thursday, allowing for benign marine conditions to return. NW winds
of ~15 kt are expected on Monday with light NNW winds around 5-10 kt
(gusts to 15 kt in the southern coastal waters) on Tuesday. Winds
will be light and variable Wednesday and Thursday. Seas will average
2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ014-030.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ015>017-031-
     032.
VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ529.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ076-084-085-
     090-097-098-517>523.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...KMC