Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

933
FXUS61 KAKQ 070555
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1255 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00z TAF/Aviation discussion/forecast update.

The Flood Watch has been allowed to expire. Cooler and drier
conditions overnight, with clearing towards morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 810 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this
weekend into early next week.

Latest analysis reveals low pressure over coastal New England
early this evening, with the associated surface cold front now
pushing offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast. Aloft, a potent
closed low continues to slide east across the Eastern Great
Lakes into the interior northeast. This feature will push the
secondary/reinforcing cold frontal passage late tonight, which
will initiate some better mixing and more breezy conditions for
late tonight and Saturday. After some ground fog late this
evening, cool, dry advection should scatter out any lingering
fog and low clouds by sunrise Sat morning.

Much cooler and drier air is forecasted to advect into the
area tomorrow, as chilly high pressure builds to the west
through tomorrow. High temperatures settle back to near seasonal
averages. High temperatures this weekend will be in the low to
mid 60s, rising to the mid to upper 60s early next week, with
potential for ~70F on Tuesday for a large portion of the area.
Tonight`s lows will be moderate compared to the next coming days
with lows in the 40s W and N to mid 50s SE. Then, Sunday
morning`s lows will be in the mid to upper 30s inland and low
40s along the coast. Patchy frost is possible, particularly in
the piedmont and counties that have already ended their growing
season. Will continue to monitor trends for areas where the
growing season has not yet ended. The recent ensemble guidance
is continuing to show dry weather persisting at least into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EST Saturday...

An initial cold front has pushed offshore as of 06z. Meanwhile,
a secondary cold front with drier air is approaching from the
NW. Ahead of this boundary there is some patchy fog and stratus
producing localized IFR/LIFR conditions. A NNW wind should
increase to 5-10kt after 08-09z in the wake of the secondary
front. This should bring an end to any patch IFR/LIFR
conditions, with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter for the
remainder of the day into tonight. A NW wind should generally be
8-12kt today and locally 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt at SBY.
The wind will then become very light out of the NW tonight as
high pressure builds in from the W.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue Sunday into the
middle of next week. Some additional weak/dry cool air
advection will bring gusty NW breezes on Sunday, especially
across the Eastern Shore. Some additional periods of breezy NNW
winds with weak cold frontal passages are expected early Monday
and again on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued tonight into Saturday
  as northerly winds increase behind a cold front passage.
  Another period of SCA conditions is possible Saturday night
  into Sunday morning.

A cold front is making its way south across local waters this
afternoon. Latest obs show that winds have turned to the N over most
of the marine zones excluding the southern coastal waters. It is a
bit breezy behind the front at 10-15kt and a few gusts to 20kt. The
stronger push of cooler, drier air will not be until later tonight,
so the post-frontal surge will be delayed from the passage of the
front itself. NW should pick up to 15-20kt over the bay and coastal
waters after midnight tonight and remain gusty through Saturday
morning. A brief period of 20-25kt is possible around sunrise
Saturday. Small Craft Advisories have already been issued for the
bay, southern coastal waters, and Currituck Sound for late tonight
through much of tomorrow. The northern coastal waters were added
with this forecast package to cover the potential for 5ft seas
during the day tomorrow. The offshore wind direction will keep seas
from building much higher than that, though. High pressure will be
slow to build in overhead, so gusty NW winds will likely continue
into Sunday morning. Did not extend the SCAs, however, because
guidance suggests a period of sub-advisory level winds during the
afternoon and evening Saturday. High pressure over the mid-south
builds E/NE towards the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday allowing winds to
shift to the W and diminish to 10-15kt. Seas will then fall back to
3-4ft. May need additional SCAs on Monday across northern waters on
where the pressure gradient is tighter on the north side of high
pressure. Sub-advisory conditions are then expected Tues-Thurs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this
     afternoon for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC