Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

988
FXUS61 KAKQ 161800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 18Z TAF/aviation discussion.

A Marginal Risk for Isolated strong to severe storms has been
introduced over coastal portions of the VA Northern Neck and
Lower Eastern Shore, mainly for late this evening and overnight
tonight.

Trends continue to favor a later start time for showers and
storms on Thursday. This results in a hotter, drier day Thursday
and have nudged up temperatures and heat index values.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and storms are possible across the
northern tier of counties this evening into early Wednesday.
A low-end threat for an isolated strong to severe storms also
exists over the Northern Neck and Lower Eastern Shore late
tonight.

2) Heating up on Thursday, then shower/storm chances return
Thursday evening, potentially lingering into Friday morning.

3) Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday night. Lingering
showers are possible Friday morning. Gradual clearing late
Friday and Friday night looks to give way to a mainly dry,
pleasant weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....Scattered showers and storms are possible
across the northern tier of counties this evening into early
Wednesday. A low-end threat for an isolated strong to severe
storms also exists over the Northern Neck and Lower Eastern
Shore late tonight.

Low pressure over the NC OBX will lift northeast offshore of
the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. As it does so, it will pull a
stalled frontal boundary back north as a warm front this evening
into early Wednesday morning. There is decent agreement among
the 12z CAMs that this feature will trigger weak convection late
tonight. Scattered showers are possible, mainly along the
coast, with a stronger storm or two possible within a marginally
unstable environment just ahead of the front over the Northern
Neck and Lower Eastern Shore. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) over this northeastern portion of the forecast
area, primarily for small hail and gusty winds.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Heating up on Thursday, then shower/storm chances
return Thursday evening, potentially lingering into Friday
morning.

Behind the warm front, a warmer and slightly more humid airmass
pushes into the region Wednesday through Thursday, maintaining
mainly dry conditions through at least midday Thursday. An upper
trough and associated cold front will approach from the west on
Thursday, allowing compressional heating to ramp up ahead of
the boundary. Highs look to warm into the upper 80s to around
90F on Wednesday, then surge well into the mid-to-upper 90s on
Thursday on increasingly breezy SSW winds. Heat indices top out
around 100F on Wednesday.

For Thursday, deep afternoon mixing from W-SW downslope flow
should help to mix out moist early morning low-level dewpoints,
making for at least a drier feeling afternoon. Nevertheless,
very warm to hot ambient temps should still yield Heat Index
values in the 100 to 105F range. Heat headlines may ultimately
be needed for portions of the area. For now will outline heat
potential in the HWO.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday
evening. Lingering showers are possible Friday morning. Gradual
clearing late Friday and Friday night looks to give way to a
mainly dry, pleasant weekend

Model trends continue to lean slower with the frontal passage
Thursday night into Friday. Given this slower timing and the
pre-frontal downslope flow, the window for showers and storms
has also trended later into the evening and overnight hours.
While later diurnal timing typically mitigates the severe
threat, a window remains during the evening where lingering
instability and high DCAPE (exceeding 1000 J/kg) could support a
few strong to severe downbursts, focused along a shortwave
trough lifting across the region ahead of the main front.

In terms of kinematics/storm mode, 25-30 kt of deep-layer bulk
shear forecast across our northern tier favors a more discrete
or loosely-organized multicell storm mode, with the stronger
forcing and higher shear profiles displaced to our north and
northeast. Because of the inverted-V signature evident on
forecast soundings, indicative of the high-DCAPE environment
locally, any storms that do push into our area are more likely
to be cold-pool dominant. For that reason, the prevailing
thought at this time is that the primary threat will be from
localized convective outflows or gust fronts producing isolated
damaging wind gusts. The highest probabilities for this remain
focused across the VA Piedmont into the RIC metro and Northern
Neck for Thursday evening. Will outline this severe threat in
the HWO.

Another northern stream shortwave, attendant to a potent upper
low over central Canada, will ultimately push the slow-moving
cold front through the region Friday morning. Rain is likely
during this period, as Gulf moisture overruns the boundary as it
drops through the region. While some welcome measurable
rainfall does seem likely, this synoptic setup typically limits
the period for appreciable rainfall, as rapid clearing becomes
increasingly likely Friday afternoon and night as the front
sweeps south. Furthermore, the signal from multi-model guidance
is trending toward keeping moisture associated with a potential
tropical system well to our south over the Gulf/Southeast,
offering no additional rainfall opportunities.

In terms of sensible weather, trends continue to favor a dry
weekend, with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail to begin the 18z/16 TAF period. A weak
area of low pressure along the NC Outer Banks lifts slowly
northeast through late tonight, and will lift a weak front back
north as a warm front. This will maintain increased mid to high
level cloud cover this afternoon into the evening, most
concentrated across the S/SE terminals. It will also bring a
low- end chance for showers at ECG/ORF late this afternoon and
this evening, reaching KSBY around and just after midnight
tonight. There is also a low-end chance for a few gusty
thunderstorms during this period late tonight just before
sunrise, with brief flight restrictions possible. PROB30
mention may be warranted at KSBY after midnight tonight, mainly
to address potential for gusty showers/storms and potential
short-lived VSBY restrictions. E-SE Winds veer around to the S
and eventually SSW later tonight into Wednesday.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue Wednesday
through Thursday evening, with showers/tstms possible mainly
Thu evening into early Friday with lingering showers and
embedded storms into Friday afternoon. Drier conditions/VFR
conditions return late Friday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.

- A period of elevated SW winds is likely Wednesday night into
Thursday  night with SCA conditions possible.

Early this morning, high pressure is building over the waters. Winds
range from NW ~5 to 10 knots over the northern half of the waters,
to light and variable south. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet,
and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. Benign marine
conditions are expected today through Wednesday. Winds become SE
today, averaging 5 to 15 knots, and become S to SW on Wednesday with
similar wind speeds to today.

Wednesday night through Thursday: SW winds increase, averaging 15 to
20 knots with gusts to 25+ knots as a cold front begins to approach
from the NW and strong low pressure develops north of the area. SCAs
will likely be needed for the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers, as
well as a majority of the coastal waters starting Thursday morning
and continuing into at least the first half of Thursday night.
Across the far offshore waters, especially south of the VA/NC
border, wind gusts may approach 35 knots for a few hours Thursday
evening into Thursday night, latest local wind probs show a ~50-60%
for these 35 knot gusts. A cold front drops across the local waters
on Friday with winds shifting to the N/NW behind the front (sub-
SCA). A cold front drops south across the local waters on Fri with
winds shifting to N/NW behind the front. Winds diminish Saturday
into Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. Winds and seas
may increase again early next week as another system approaches the
region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/MAM
AVIATION...AC/MAM
MARINE...AJB