Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

405
FXUS61 KAKQ 240116
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
916 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Flood Watch has been cancelled for northeast NC. Lowered
overnight temperatures over northern portions of the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The Flood Watch has been cancelled. While the heavy rain
threat has greatly diminished, scattered showers will remain
possible overnight over northeast North Carolina. Otherwise,
gradually cooler and more comfortable overnight.

2) Below average temperatures are expected tomorrow through the
weekend, before trending back to seasonal for late July early
next week. There are daily chances for afternoon storms, but
overall drier than the current wet pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 915 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The Flood Watch has been cancelled. While the
heavy rain threat has greatly diminished, scattered showers will
remain possible overnight over northeast North Carolina. Otherwise,
gradually cooler and more comfortable overnight.

Latest analysis reveals the slow-moving cold front is now
well south of the area, extending from just north of Hatteras,
across the NC/SC border into N GA/N AL. Aloft, a mid-level
trough remains just offshore of the east coast, with W-SW flow
aloft providing a feed of Gulf moisture from the western Gulf
coast, near to now-TD Bertha continues. Fortunately for our
local area, showers remain far more numerous along and south of
the front, with cooler, more stable regime post-frontal allowing
for isolated to scattered showers where PWs AOA 2" remain over
far SE VA and northeast NC. For the rest of the area, drier air
continues to filter into the region. dewpoints generally in the
low 60s north of Richmond (with mid to upper 50s just N of our
local area). Have allowed for lingering showers overnight across
the southeast CWA, but with the heavy rain threat greatly
diminished, have dropped the Flood Watch for the remaining
portion of our area. Overnight lows will be cool and noticeably
less humid across the northern half of the area. Look for
overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s north, mid to upper
60s farther south and east.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures are expected
tomorrow through the weekend, before trending back to seasonal
for late July early next week. There are daily chances for
afternoon storms, but overall drier than the current wet
pattern.

The cold front will remain south of the area through the weekend,
developing a weak low along the front over central North Carolina.
Residual moisture may bring more showers to SE portions of the area
as the low pushes additional chances into the area. The FA will then
be positioned under an UL trough over the weekend with onshore flow
in place at the sfc. This will lead to cooler, below-average
temperatures for a few days. Highs on Fri and Sat will be in the
upper 70s to around 80. Warming up slightly for Sunday with highs in
the low to mid 80s. Near-average temps return early next week.
Looking to be overall a dry weekend, but a few isolated
showers/storms cannot be ruled out during the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 825 PM EDT Thursday...

A cold front has pushed south of the terminals, with VFR
conditions prevailing. Showers will continue to prevail along
the front to our south, with occasional showers across far
southern terminals in the vicinity of KECG. The only exception
is with some lingering showers and MVFR CIGs at ECG. Accounted
for some showers through late tonight at ECG, along with a brief
period of IFR late tonight at KECG through late morning Friday,
returning to MVFR. Elsewhere, mainly dry/VFR conditions should
prevail through the period. NE winds 5-10 kt early this evening
becoming light and variable E-NE ~5 kt.

Outlook: Degraded flight conditions persist into late Friday
morning at ECG, with mainly dry/VFR conditions elsewhere. A low
chance of showers across the SE terminals returns for Saturday,
along with potential sub-VFR conditions at ECG (mainly VFR/dry
conditions continue elsewhere). Isolated to widely scattered
late day and evening showers/storms will be possible each day
from Sunday through early next week, with predominate VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Thursday...

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail, but with elevated NE winds through
  Friday.

A cold front has pushed south of the local waters this
afternoon, with NE winds averaging 10-15 kt across most of the
region. Seas have risen to ~ 4ft across the southern VA and NE
NC waters, but are still expected to remain below 5 ft on
average so will not be issuing any headlines tonight. With high
pressure remaining centered N of the area Friday, and a sfc
trough/stalled frontal boundary to the south, NE winds will stay
a bit elevated, and some gusts to 20 kt will be possible,
especially Friday morning. Will allow later shifts to assess the
potential for a short-fused SCA in the lower Bay where probs
for 18 kt sustained winds are ~20%, but think this is too
marginal for any headlines at this time. Seas will continue at
3-4 ft Friday, with waves 2-3 ft in the lower Bay and ~2 ft in
the lower James. Over the weekend, the pressure gradient is
forecast to relax a bit more as high pressure nudges south
closer to the area. Expect sub- SCA conditions and fairly benign
conditions into early next week with 2-3 ft seas and waves 1-2
ft in the Bay.

A Moderate Risk for Rip Currents continues across all local
beaches through Friday from increased swell and onshore flow.
Sat-Sun are currently forecast as a low risk.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/KMC/MAM
AVIATION...KMC/MAM
MARINE...AJB/LKB