Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

826
FXUS61 KAKQ 141743
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
143 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 18z Aviation discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very warm temperatures will easily challenge and likely
break high temperature records across the region this afternoon.

2) A cold front drops southward Thursday with cooler temperatures
for most of the area.

3) Warm and breezy Friday with a few showers before much cooler
temperatures arrive this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm temperatures will easily challenge and
likely break high temperature records across the region this
afternoon.

1020mb high pressure dominates the local weather pattern this
morning. A cold front extends from low pressure over NY to the W/SW
into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Strong upper ridging is
centered over the Gulf Coast but is extending to the NE with rising
heights aloft over the Mid-Atlantic. A weak shortwave trough is
currently clipping NE portions of the area, with mostly just a
temporary increase in clouds but a few light returns have been noted
on radar over the last few hours. These clouds and any lingering
light rainfall will move offshore over the next few hours.

The main weather story today will be the well above normal
temperatures. Heights aloft hold steady or rise slightly through the
day while low level flow will continue out of the W and SW. Clear or
mostly clear skies and some downslope compressional warming will
combine for high temps in the upper 80s to low 90s across the
region. Blended guidance continues to be 2-4 degrees below the
statistical guidance. Will go with highs 90-93 degrees for inland
locales with mid/upper 80s for the Eastern Shore. These values are
well above the record temps for the day at all of our long term
climate sites (which are 86-87 degrees, all set in 1975). See the
Climate section below for site-specific data. Forecast soundings
show ample dry air aloft, however, which will allow dew points to
mix out into the low/mid 60s this afternoon and keep the heat from
feeling too oppressive. Clouds will increase across the N this
evening as the aforementioned cold front creeps slowly south.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front drops southward Thursday with cooler
temperatures for most of the area.

A cold front will approach the region from the N tonight and is
forecast to cross the local area early Thursday. High pressure over
the Great Lakes will translate eastward and allow for a CAD wedge to
develop over much of the area. Have continued the trend of lowering
temperatures vs the blended guidance with widespread clouds forecast
over the northern 2/3 of the area by early afternoon with NE/onshore
flow. Latest guidance continues to show the potential for some light
isentropic lift across the northern counties Thursday. QPF still
looks quite meager with a few hundredths to perhaps a tenth of an
inch forecast. High temperatures now range from the mid 60s N to the
low and mid 70s from Richmond S. Areas near and south of the VA/NC
border may still make it into the upper 70s to low 80s with thicker
cloud cover arriving a few hours later than points N. Temps will not
follow the typical diurnal curve over much of the area with highs
likely to occur in the morning or early afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Warm and breezy Friday with a few showers before
much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend.

A deep upper trough is forecast to dig across the Great Lakes
Thursday night into Friday with a strengthening surface low over the
Ohio Valley. Southerly flow ahead of this feature will allow the
front to lift back northward as a warm front Friday morning. High
temps rebound into the low 80s N with mid and upper 80s S. It will
become breezy out of the SW by Friday afternoon. Some showers and
thunder are also possible, primarily across NE portions of the area
Friday afternoon. Rapidly deepening low pressure will translate NE
into New England on Friday with a strong cold front extending back
to the southwest. This front will cross the local area Friday
evening into early Saturday with significant cold advection moving
into the region. Some additional precip is possible along and ahead
of the frontal passage, mainly over the eastern half of the area
before sunrise. QPF does not look nearly as impressive as a front of
this strength would suggest. Gusty winds are likely to continue into
the Friday overnight period and could reach 35-40 mph immediately
along and behind the front. While kinematic fields will be favorable
for storm organization, lack of deeper moisture/instability will
limit the potential for strong to severe convection (or even much
thunder) across the region.

Strong (1035mb+) high pressure builds into the region behind the
front with upper troughing remaining over the eastern CONUS,
resulting in well below normal temperatures this weekend. Afternoon
highs likely struggle to get out of the 50s across the northern half
of the CWA despite mostly sunny skies. Low 60s are forecast for the
southern half of the area. It will also remain quite breezy on
Saturday with gusts 25-30 mph, and especially near the coast where
winds could gust 30-35 mph. Overnight low temps tumble into the mid
to upper 30s in the Piedmont with low to mid 40s for the remainder
of the area Saturday night. Upper 30s and low 40s are forecast
Sunday night into Monday. Some frost is possible in the Piedmont
with this airmass, especially if temps continue to trend toward the
cooler MOS guidance which shows temps in the low 30s in the
typically cooler spots.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR across the region to begin the 18z TAF period will persist
through tonight, though some MVFR CIGs will be possible toward
the tail end of the period late tonight. SW winds 5-10 kt this
afternoon under a mainly sunny sky. A cold front drops south
toward the region this evening, and will cross the terminals
overnight tonight into early Thu morning. Winds becoming N then
NE behind the boundary. Increased cloud cover and wind gusts to
15-20 kt are forecast post-frontal, along with a low-end rain
chances for RIC and SBY. MVFR CIGs will develop Thu morning and
early afternoon, potentially briefly improving back to low-emd
VFR before MVFR to IFR CIGs return Thursday evening into early
Friday morning as a cool air wedge pattern develops over the
area.

Outlook: The front will briefly lift back north of the area,
allowing a return to VFR conditions Friday, with breezy SW winds
developing in the warm sector. However, deteriorating flying
conditions return later Fri evening through Sat evening as a
second, stronger cold front crosses the area. Additional rain
chances and gusty NW winds are expected Sat morning into the
afternoon post-frontal. VFR conditions return early Sunday
morning through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- NE winds behind a backdoor cold front will gust 20-25kt for a few
  hours Thurs morning.

- A strong cold front crosses the waters late Friday into this weekend.
  Strong SCA to Gale conditions are likely Friday night through
  early Sunday.

Early morning sfc analysis indicates high pressure being suppressed
to to the SE with low pressure over New England. The pressure
gradient between these features is tight enough to support SW winds
of 10-15kt. Latest buoy obs show seas of 2 to 3 feet and waves in
the bay around 1ft. SW flow will continue through the day and part
of tonight, diminishing slightly to 5-10kt this afternoon.

A backdoor cold front will drop south across the area late tonight
into Thurs morning and will reach southern waters around mid day.
Winds turn to the NE behind the front and increase to 15-20kt with
strongest winds off the coast of the Eastern Shore. There will
likely be a few hours of gusts around 20kt in the lower bay and
lower James River Thurs morning, so SCAs may be needed. Confidence
in the stronger winds lasting more than an hour or two is fairly
low, so will hold off on issuing anything for now so we can get
another round of high-res models. Seas will increase to 3-4ft Thurs
and waves in the bay to 2-3ft. SW flow returns Thurs night/early Fri
when the backdoor front is lifted back north ahead of a stronger
cold front that will pass through Fri night.

SSW flow ramps up to 15-20kt again on Friday as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of the stronger front. Strong CAA behind the
front over the still-warm waters will lead to the potential for gale
conditions Fri night through much of Saturday. Local wind probs for
sustained gale force winds are still pretty low to non-existant with
only ~15% for a few spots over the coastal waters. Probs for 34kt+
gusts, though, are much higher and peak at 70-90% over the bay and
coastal waters early Sat morning. Latest forecast is for NW winds of
25-30kt (20-25kt on the rivers) and gusts of 30-38kt. Still too
early to put up Gale Watches, but they will likely be coming in the
new couple of days for the Friday night-Saturday periods. Seas
should build to 5-7ft and waves in the bay to 5-6ft during this
period. Strong high pressure is quick to build in behind the front,
so winds should drop off rather quickly Sat night into Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

        10/14
RIC    87/1975
ORF    86/1975
SBY    86/1975
ECG    86/1975

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-
     634-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...AC
CLIMATE...