Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

667
FXUS61 KAKQ 130720
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
220 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion.

Highs have been lowered over the VA Northern Neck and Eastern
Shore.

A Freeze Warning has been issued for inland portions of central
and eastern Virginia as well as portions of northeast North
Carolina for late tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much colder air arrives today and persists into early next
week, bringing widespread sub-freezing temperatures inland
tonight. A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of the area
tonight into Saturday morning, with near-freezing temperatures
possible again Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Much colder air arrives today and persists into
early next week, bringing widespread sub-freezing temperatures
inland tonight. A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of
the area tonight into Saturday morning, with near- freezing
temperatures possible again Sunday morning.

Early morning analysis shows deepening low pressure south of
Long Island and a 1028+ mb high building across the upper
Midwest, while a potent upper trough digs over the eastern
CONUS. This trough will linger over the Mid-Atlantic through the
weekend before weakening early next week, ushering in the
coldest airmass of the season so far. Strong cold air advection
will drive breezy NW winds today and Saturday, with gusts of
20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the coast peaking on
Saturday. Nudged high temperatures down a bit over the Eastern
Shore, as a developing deformation zone keeps considerable
wraparound low-mid level cloud cover over the Delmarva today.
While this feature should stay far enough to our NE to keep
precipitation out of the area, overcast skies should still
hold highs in the 40s for much of the Eastern Shore and no
higher than the lower 50s over the VA Northern Neck. Clouds will
scatter out farther south, allowing highs to reach the mid-to-
upper 50s south of I-64 under a partly cloudy sky. Highs return
to the 50s area- wide this weekend into early next week, with
dry weather still prevailing.

Aside from lingering clouds over the Delmarva, clear skies, a
dry airmass, and diminishing inland winds tonight will promote
efficient radiational cooling and the first widespread freeze of
the fall. Lows are forecast to drop into the upper 20s to low
30s inland, with upper 30s to low 40s near the coast.
Accordingly, the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze
Warning for the I-95 corridor across central and south-central
VA into Hertford and Northampton counties in NC. While a better-
mixed boundary layer Saturday night should keep temperatures
slightly higher, additional Freeze Watches may be needed for
Sunday morning in counties that do not experience a freeze
tonight. Lingering breezes will push wind chills into the mid-
to-upper 20s inland (mid 30s at the coast) for those early
risers this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1250 AM EST Friday...

Mainly VFR for most of the local TAF sites through the 06z TAF
period, with the exception of CIGs falling to MVFR along the
Delmarva, including at SBY. As low pressure deepens offshore,
wrap around moisture will likely result in BKN MVFR CIGs at SBY
today into tonight Elsewhere, expect BKN clouds between
4000-8000 ft, scattering out by later this morning and through
the remainder of the TAF period. MVFR CIGs at SBY eventually
improve late tonight and Saturday, as drier air arrives from
the NW. W-NW winds become gusty toward sunrise this morning,
then continue through late afternoon, with gusts to 20 kt
expected.

Outlook: VFR conditions are favored from Saturday into next
week with continued gusty NW winds through the weekend, peaking
on Saturday with gusts to 20 to 30 kt, then gradually diminishing
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, lower
James River, and coastal waters north of the VA/NC border through
Saturday night/Sunday morning. SCAs for the NC coastal waters and
Currituck Sound will go into effect tonight through Saturday
night/Sunday morning. The strongest NW winds occuring on Saturday.

- Benign marine conditions are expected early next week through at
least mid week.


A cold front crossed the local waters earlier today. An initial
surge of elevated winds is observed early this morning with NW winds
at ~15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt across the local waters from cold
air advection and a tighten pressure gradient. Seas are now 3-4 ft
with 1-3 ft waves. Waves and seas will continue to build today with
the elevated winds. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the
Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and coastal waters north of the
VA/NC border, now extended through Sat night/Sun morning.

A secondary surge of stronger NW winds is expected late tonight and
Saturday from an additional push of CAA. Widespread SCA conditions
are expected with winds peaking around 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt.
An isolated gust to 35 knots is possible out around 60 nm, but gale
wind gust probabilities are near zero. Seas will build to 4-6 ft
near shore and 6-8 ft for the waters beyond 20 nm. Waves will become
2-4 ft. Elevated waves and seas will continue through Sunday
morning. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the NC coastal
waters and Currituck Sound with this from late tonight (10 PM)
through Sat night/Sun morning. At this time, the upper rivers are
marginal, but could be included in future packages. Additionally,
gusts to 20 kt may linger in the Ches. Bay through Sunday. Benign
marine conditions will return late Sunday through at least mid week
as high pressure builds over the region.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ012-013.
VA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for VAZ076-
     079>083-087>090-092-512>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/RMM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...AJB/KMC