Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

477
FXUS61 KAKQ 261047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
647 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marginal Risks for severe weather added for today and Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Typical summer weather today and Monday with
near average temperatures and late afternoon-evening
showers/storms.

2) Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected
Tuesday afternoon with the potential for damaging wind gusts and
hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Typical summer weather today and Monday with
near average temperatures and late afternoon-evening showers/storms.

Northwest upper/mid level flow has set up over the forecast
area now that the axis of a seasonably deep trough has shifted
offshore. At the surface, a cold front is positioned southeast
of the NC coast and high pressure has moved in over the Mid-
Atlantic. Today actually looks pretty decent overall with highs
in the mid 80s and partly to mostly sunny skies. Could be a
touch humid, but it`s definitely not the worst humidity we`ve
seen. Later this evening, a shortwave traveling down the trough
is expected to trigger at least a few thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic. CAMs indicate a relatively late initiation
(~7-9pm) and storms staying mostly in the Piedmont. The later
start time would of course mean waning instability, but NW flow
has historically been good at producing storms with strong wind
gusts around here. The 25-30kt of shear expected is pretty good
for July. While storms will be isolated to widely scattered,
there is the potential for one or two stronger storms that
produce damaging wind gusts or even some hail. SPC has put the
piedmont in a Marginal Risk for today. Another round of
scattered storms is expected Monday, but with an earlier
initiation time and coastal areas being included in the action.
Will still have that NW flow in place, about 30kt of bulk
shear, and 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE, so stronger storms will still
be possible. SPC also has a marginal risk for much of the area
Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected
Tuesday afternoon with the potential for damaging wind gusts and
hail.

Tuesday still looks like the best shot at widespread thunderstorms
and at least scattered instances of severe storms. The Mid-Atlantic
will still be under NW flow as a cold front sweeps through at the
surface. The GFS and Canadian have trended toward the more aggressive
ECMWF solution regarding the upper trough. Now all three want to cut
the low off somewhere over the upper Mid-Atlantic or southern New
England, but there are differences in timing. Regardless, confidence
is increasing in a strong synoptic set up for severe weather. Bulk
shear of 35kt and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg would be sufficient
support. Main threats would be damaging wind gusts and large hail.
As always though, timing of the storms will be important to how much
severe WX occurs (as has been the case with some recent events).
Morning showers may inhibit instability, which could also lead
to a bust. It is likely that the SPC will carry over the slight
risk from the day 4 extended outlook into the day 3 outlook,
which will come out later this morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

Some patchy fog may linger at ECG right at the start of the 12z
period, but anticipate it will quickly burn off before 13z.
SCT skies then prevail during the day. Cloud cover increases
later this evening once storms get going in western VA. Could
see widely scattered storms within the forecast area after 00z,
but confidence in impacts at the terminals is too low for
inclusion in the TAF at this time. RIC would have the highest
chance at seeing a storm tonight with a much lower chance for
the coastal terminals.

Outlook:
Isolated to widely scattered late aftn/evening showers/storms
are possible both Sunday and Monday, with a higher chance for
storms Tuesday aftn/evening as the next front approaches the
region from the NNW. Additional SHRA/TSRA possible Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected to prevail with northerly
winds today.

- Another front approaches on Tuesday, which could bring a period of
low-end SCAs with SW winds.

N winds of 5-10 kt prevail early this morning as weak low pressure
continues to move well offshore. Seas are 2-3 ft, with 1-2 ft waves.
We will likely see a modest increase in northerly winds by sunrise
(to 10-15 kt). As the low continues to lift farther away, the
gradient across the region will relax and winds will shift to the
southeast Monday, then to the south on Monday night. The gradient is
expected to tighten on Tuesday ahead of the next front. S and SW
winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay and 20-25
kt offshore. A few strong storms are possible Monday evening with a
better chance Tuesday afternoon and evening with gusty winds the
primary threat. In the wake of the front, winds will decrease to 5-
15 kt and shift to the NW. Northwesterly winds will prevail from
Wednesday-Thursday, with light and variable winds expected Friday.

A moderate rip risk continues this afternoon for the southern
beaches today due to seas around 3 ft. The rip current risk drops to
low for all beaches on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI