Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

685
FXUS61 KAKQ 051210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
710 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded and now includes all
northern zones of central VA (north of Richmond) to the northern
Neck through 9 AM this morning, and have added Accomack and all
of the MD eastern shore through 10 AM.

Marine Dense Fog Advisories are in effect for much of the VA and
MD waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of fog prevail this morning, mainly across the north,
but also in the vicinity of the Bay and Ocean (for VA-MD).

2) A stretch of very warm, but changeable weather will prevail
through the middle of next week. However, a slow- moving front
will linger near and north of the area, bringing about periodic
bouts of onshore flow along the coast. This will likely result
in significantly cooler temperatures near the coast, particularly
across the Lower Eastern Shore.

3) Chances for showers (and possibly a few thunderstorms)
increase later this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 705 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of dense fog prevail this morning, mainly
across the north, but also in the vicinity of the Bay and Ocean
(for VA-MD).

Early morning analysis shows a sfc boundary nearly stationary
across southern VA, roughly along the US-460 corridor. Light
southerly winds are in place to the south of this so fog will be
minimal for NC and far southern VA. However, along and N of the
front, at least patchy dense fog can be expected through the
next several hrs. At this time, a Dense Fog Advisory has been
expanded to include all northern zones in VA from
Louisa/Fluvanna to the nrn Neck and for the MD ern shore as well
as Accomack. Overall, conditions should begin to improve after
8-10 AM (lingering thr longest over the eastern shore).


KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant warmup will continue through this
weekend and into the middle of next week. However, a slow-
moving front will linger near and north of the area, bringing
about periodic bouts of onshore flow along the coast. This will
likely result in significantly cooler temperatures near the
coast, particularly across the Lower Eastern Shore.

Later today, the front is forecast to move back north, as the H5
flow (that is current zonal), becomes more WSW to SW as the
next shortwave over the midwest moves to the east and the upper
level ridge to our south amplifies off the SE US coast. This
should allow for increasing SW low level flow, and high
temperatures getting even warmer than yesterday for most of the
region. Expect the sky to become partly to mostly sunny later
this morning, although this will take longer to the N and on the
eastern shore where low clouds could linger into the early
aftn. Highs should reach into the upper 70s to around 80F for
areas W of the Bay and along/S of I-64. Highs will be cooler on
the eastern shore (generally in the 60s). That next shortwave
passes by N of the region overnight and on Friday. This will
again likely push the boundary back to the SW on Friday,
earliest on the ern shore where highs may not get out of the
50s, but much later for south central VA and interior NE NC. The
00Z models continue to vary with respect to how far south and
west and with the timing that the cooler air evolves on Friday.
The GFS/NAM are the most aggressive with cold air extent vs the
warmer ECMWF and CMC/HRRR. For now, highs are forecast into the
lower 80s for much of the CWA, with a sharp gradient to the
N/NE of I-64. Much of east central VA and even SE VA at the
coast could see a fast warmup well into the 70s with temps
falling significantly by mid to late aftn. Aftn shower chances
are mainly across the northern 1/2 of the area, shifting to the
eastern shore Fri night. There is decent instability to the
south of the front, but the precip looks ana-frontal at this
time so did not add any tstms to the forecast.



KEY MESSAGE 3...Chances for showers (and possibly a few
thunderstorms) increase later this weekend.

After the warmup (for areas that trend cooler Friday), a more
prominent upper trough dives SE and flatten the ridge for the 2nd
half of the weekend.  Rain chances increase more significantly late
Saturday through Saturday night, with the highest chances (30-50%
PoPs Sat night NW, pushing to the S on Sunday (40-60%) as a
frontal boundary pushes across from the NW. Tstms Sun aftn are
most likely for southern VA and NE NC, though there does not
appear to be much if any SVR threat at this time. This front
likely stalls or dissipates over the area early next week, which
will potentially lead to additional chances of rain into
Monday. Ensembles are not showing a heavy rainfall signal at
this time, generally averaging ~0.1" to 0.3" through the period.
It remains very warm through the middle of next week, with some
record highs possible (records are mostly only in the low 80s).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM EST Thursday...

Variable conditions early this morning, with mainly VFR for RIC/ORF/ECG,
patchy dense fog at PHF, and dense fog and low CIGs at SBY. At
SBY< expect LIFR-IFR conds to remain through late morning or
early aftn, while improvement starts earlier elsewhere. Winds
are light and variable, with SW flow resuming with onset of
diurnal heating later this morning. SBY likely will see
additional flight restrictions overnight.

Outlook: The front will linger across the north and bring some
potential for isolated to scattered showers, mainly impacting
SBY but low chance for RIC as well. A backdoor cold front is
expected to shift the winds to the E-NE on the Lower Eastern
Shore Fri aftn, with additional flight restrictions possible. It
is uncertain how much progress farther south the boundary makes
Friday afternoon but in general, the chances are lower at the
remaining terminals. Saturday should be mainly VFR, then rain
chances increase, possibly with a few tstms Saturday evening
through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Marine fog remains a concern today and additional rounds are
  possible through the rest of the week.

- A sub-SCA wind and sea state is expected through Saturday.
  The next potential for SCAs is Saturday night into Sunday.

A wavy backdoor cold front resides just N of the NC-VA border this
morning. S of the boundary, light southerly flow is observed. Light
flow is also observed N of the boundary, though the wind direction
is E-NE. A persistent area of marine fog has developed in the lower
Chesapeake Bay and James and York Rivers, with areas of fog also in
the northern coastal waters. Dense Fog Advisories have been issued
where cameras, observations, and satellite data corroborate ongoing
fog. Fog could expand northward as the boundary slowly lifts N this
morning, but confidence is not particularly high in these light flow
setups. Will monitor through the day and adjust advisories as
necessary.

As mentioned above, the boundary will slowly lift northward today
and tonight. This will shift winds to the S or SW for the entire
marine area by this afternoon. While wind speeds stay sub-SCA, could
see occasional gusts to 20 kt by the evening hours and especially
tonight as weak low pressure passes N of the area. The boundary
again drops SW Friday and winds likely become E-NE 10-15 kt by the
afternoon and evening. Southerly flow returns Saturday and increases
to 15-20 kt Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. SCAs
appear probable for the coastal waters Sat night as sustained winds
increase to around 20 kt with ~5 ft seas (especially N), with SCAs
also possible on the Chesapeake Bay and rivers due to 20-25 kt
gusts. Lighter winds return Sunday-Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for VAZ099.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ048-062-
     064-075>077-509>511-517-519-521-522.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630-631-
     635-650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...SW