Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

186
FXUS61 KAKQ 271139
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
739 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight Risk for today has been pushed south and now only
encompasses NE NC (Marginal Risk elsewhere).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower and thunderstorm chances trend higher today along
with high humidity. Slight Risk today for NE NC/Marginal risk
elsewhere.


2) Marginal Risk for Severe storms along and S of I-64 Sunday.
Dry with seasonable temperatures Monday-Tuesday.

3) A significant heat wave leading to Headlines is likely later
in the week into the Holiday weekend, especially Thu-Fri.
Shower/thunderstorm chances remain very low through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Shower and thunderstorm chances trend higher
today along with high humidity. Slight Risk today for NE
NC/Marginal risk elsewhere.

A westerly upper level flow prevails early this morning with a
sfc frontal boundary nearly stationary from the OH Valley ENE
into western PA. With the upper flow staying nearly W-E today,
expect the front to generally stay north of the FA, potentially
close enough for some scattered AM showers (iso tstms) brushing
our northern zones, while conditions remain mainly dry
elsewhere. The latest 00Z RRFS as well as the 06Z HRRR have
backed off a bit on convective coverage later today, with the
stabilizing convective outflows/debris cloudiness across the
area this morning, along with some lingering cloud cover and a
reinforced stable outflow pool across at least the northern half
of the FA. SPC has downgraded the Slight Risk that had been
over southern VA to a Marginal for today, with the Slight now
confined to NE NC.

Farther south, minimal impacts over the southern half of the
area will allow for more in the way of sunshine, and subsequent
late day destabilization ahead of an approaching (stronger)
afternoon shortwave, which will trigger convection. A very warm
to hot and moderately humid airmass will drive DCAPE values into
the 1000-1500 J/kg range S of the VA-NC border, making this area a
bit more conducive to severe weather. For that reason, a Slight
Risk (Level 2 of 5) remains for NC. Given decent W-WNW flow
aloft and 20-30 kt of 0-6km bulk shear, organized clusters or
line segments, capable of producing localized damaging wind
gusts will be the primary threat. Storm motions should generally
be progressive enough (15-20 kt) to limit the widespread flash
flood threat, though brief hydro issues cannot be ruled out if
convection coalesces over urban areas.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal Risk for Severe storms along and S of
I-64 Sunday. Dry with seasonable temperatures Monday-Tuesday.

Convective coverage is expected to be a bit less on Sunday for
northern areas, but still expect high chc to low-end likely PoPs
across southern and western portions of the FA as the front
begins sinking south through the area and the low- level flow
becomes N-NE across northern portions of the FA. Though once
again, potential for damaging wind gusts persists across Hampton
Roads into NE NC, albeit a bit earlier in the day through
around sunset. Dry and slightly less humid Monday and Tuesday,
with temps in the mid- upper 80s Monday and upper 80s to lower
90s Tuesday as high pressure builds toward the area from the
NNE.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant heat wave leading to Headlines is
likely later in the week into the Holiday weekend, especially
Thu-Fri. Shower/thunderstorm chances remain very low through
Thursday.

A strong upper ridge slowly drifts east from the OH Valley to
the central Appalachians later in the week. There are some
subtle differences in the precise location, but confidence is
high that this setup will lead to a significant heat wave for
the local area. The MEX numbers with highs peaking only in the
mid to upper 90s locally look to be too cool given a strong
consensus for H5 heights >595 dm and 850 mb temps of 21-23C,
this is likely being too influenced by climo. With that said,
have continued to cut a few degrees off of the NBM temperatures
for highs Wednesday- Friday; current forecast is for highs
Thursday- Friday ranging from the upper 90s to the low 100s
area-wide (with the highest temperatures for the interior MD
eastern shore and central and south central VA). The weak sfc
pressure gradient will tend to allow some aftn seabreeze
development, locally bringing steady or falling late day
temperatures. The caveat will be the higher dew pts along the
coast so peak heat indices may be similar. Also continued to
make some adjustments downward with aftn dew P`s from the NBM
(especially from the I-95 corridor and P`s west). The latest
forecast shows heat indices of 105-110 F fairly widespread for
Thursday and Friday (with pockets of 110+ possible).

The only real opportunity for showers and storms in this
pattern would be with "ring of fire" type convective complexes,
but given the latest location of the upper ridge this does not
appear very likely so rain chances are quite low Wed-Thu, with
some slight chc to low chc PoPs by late Friday. This will all
be better resolved as we get closer. The bottom line is that
preparations should be made now for a period of hot
temperatures/heat indices late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 AM EDT Saturday...

Mostly MVFR to VFR conditions prevail as of 11z, with continued
MVFR and localized IFR CIGs possible this morning. Scattered
showers are possible later this morning, with higher chances
this aftn and early this evening. Confidence in timing is still
rather low, but have including prevailing SHRA for PHF/ORF/ECG
this aftn with PROB30 groups for TSRA as periods of sub- VFR
conditions are likely in any showers/tstms. The wind will
generally be light out of the S to SW today, and could shift to
easterly along the coast later this aftn. Any stronger tstms
this aftn into the early evening could produce some locally
stronger wind gusts.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR cigs are possible once again late tonight
through early Sunday morning. Shower/tstm chances return Sunday
aftn (lowest chance for SBY, highest southern VA and NE NC
terminals). Prevailing conditions will be VFR outside of
convection. VFR conditions are expected to return by the
beginning of next week and continue through the middle of next
week as high pressure builds S across the area and then settles
offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through much of
the week. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected for the next
two days ahead of a weakening cold front.

Early morning weather analysis shows high pressure off the coast and
a weak stationary front across PA. The pressure gradient ahead of
the weak front remains weak allowing winds to be light out of the
WSW around 10kt. Seas remain low this morning with 1ft seas in the
bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Through the day winds will shift
more out of the south as the decaying front approaches the area.
Winds will be around 10 kt with gusts nearing 15kt. In addition,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today across the
waters. Some of these storms maybe strong to severe potentially
producing gusts over 34kt. Seas will likely remain the stagnant
through day with around 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3ft across the
ocean. The decaying front will pass through the area by Sunday but
the pressure gradient will be weak and winds will likely to hover
around 10kt out of the NE. Additional storms are forecasted for
Sunday afternoon and some maybe strong to severe potentially
producing wind gusts above 34kt. Through the rest of the forecast
period Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail. However, will not
that Monday winds shift out of the NE and decided to up the waves
to 4ft near shore as some guidance continues to hint on a slightly
tighter pressure gradient.

Rip Currents: Low rips are forecasted for today and Sunday. However,
Sunday there is a possibility of the Northern beaches being upgraded
to moderate due to onshore flow, but that is all depending on the
timing of the front and when winds will shift. There was not enough
confidence at this time for an upgrade. Continues with Moderate Rips
for all beaches Monday due to onshore flow and 9-10 sec periods.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

KAKQ radar remains out of service due to a calibration problem.
Technicians are working on the issue this morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...HET
EQUIPMENT...LKB