Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

938
FXUS61 KAKQ 042330
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
630 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry conditions return through tomorrow. A
weakening cold front approaches and crosses the area later
Tuesday into Wednesday, but dry conditions will continue.
Temperatures warm above normal Tuesday through late week. A
stronger cold front likely crosses the area Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool weather prevails through tonight.

High pressure remains centered over the area tonight leading to cold
and dry conditions. High clouds will also increase through the night
as a disturbance passed well to our north. Skies are mostly
clear now, building in from the northwest. Lows will range from
the mid to upper 20s inland with lower 20s possible for the
typically colder spots across the Piedmont and on the Eastern
Shore. Coastal areas will see low temperatures in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonable and dry weather continues on Monday.

- A warming trend is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will drift slowly offshore on Monday. This
will allow for the flow to veer around to the south-southwest,
commencing a gradual airmass modification. Monday will see
seasonable temperatures with highs ranging from the upper 40s north
to the low-mid 50s south (mid 40s Eastern Shore). Cloud cover
increases slightly across the northern half of the area Monday
afternoon but it remains dry. Low temperatures on Monday night will
range from the mid 30s to lower 40s under a mostly cloudy sky.

By Tuesday, the warming trend accelerate as a ridge subtly amplifies
along the US East Coast. With southwesterly flow increasing,
temperatures increase into the upper 50s to lower 60s (mid 60s
across the far south/southeast). Remaining cooler over the Eastern
Shore with highs generally in the mid 50s. It should be noted that
certain models, mainly the NAM, try to build a bit of a wedge into
the local area on Tuesday keeping low clouds/cooler temperatures
across the area. This seems like an outlier solution, but certainly
something to keep in mind. Milder Tuesday night, generally mid to
upper 40s, ahead of an approaching (weakening) cold front.

The weakening front crosses the area on Wednesday, but moisture is
limited so expecting us to remain dry. Temperatures will range from
the mid to upper 60s for most of the area with a few locations
approaching 70 as any (minimal) CAA likely holds off until late in
the day behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Remaining mild Thursday into Friday.

- A stronger cold front approaches the area later Friday into
Saturday with increasing rain chances.

Slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday, though still above
average, as high pressure briefly returns. Highs will range from the
upper 50s north to the low-mid 60s south. Models begin to diverge a
bit later in the week in regards to the next system, but a strong
cold front likely approaches and crosses the area later Friday or
Saturday. Ahead of the front on Friday, it should remain mild with
highs generally in the 60s or lower 70s. Rain chances increase ahead
of and with the front Friday into Saturday. A few thunderstorms may
even be possible depending on the timing of the front. High
temperatures Saturday will depend on the timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z/05 TAF period, as high
pressure remains over the region. SCT-BKN high clouds are moving
into the area from the NW this evening and will linger through the
period. Mid level clouds will increase Monday morning as well. Winds
will be light and variable tonight before becoming southerly Monday
morning, increasing to 5-10 kt.

Outlook: Low chance in MVFR CIGs Monday night into Tuesday.
Otherwise, dry/VFR conditions through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions continue through Thursday night.

- A brief SW surge is possible Tuesday night with a stronger surge
Friday into next weekend.

Afternoon surface analysis depicted high pressure west of the local
area. This high is expected to build east later today into tonight
before sliding offshore Mon. As such, winds remain benign through
Tue. Winds this afternoon were N/NW 5-15 kt. Winds become light and
variable late tonight before becoming S 5-10 kt Mon. Winds become SW
and increase to ~15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt Tue night into
Wed morning ahead of a weak cold front. As such, marginal SCAs are
possible. However, confidence is very low (wind probs for sustained
winds of 18 kt were <20% with most of the Ches Bay <10%). Winds
diminish behind the front Wed afternoon. The next period of elevated
winds arrives Fri into next weekend as SW winds increase to 15-20 kt
ahead of a stronger cold front attached to a deepening area of low
pressure moving towards the Great Lakes. SCAs are possible both
ahead of and behind the cold front.

Waves and seas were 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft (3-4 ft across the NC coastal
waters) respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to 2-3 ft
and 3-4 ft respectively Tue night into Wed with the first SW surge
and again Fri into Sat. Seas of 4-5 ft are possible next
weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/HET
NEAR TERM...AJB/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...RMM