Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

188
FXUS61 KAKQ 281833
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
233 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion.

- Fog potential returns late tonight, mainly inland.
- Rain chances early next week have trended down slightly.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Partial inland clearing this afternoon gives way to
returning low clouds and patchy fog tonight into Thursday
morning. Seasonable temperatures persist through late week.

2) Dry weather prevails through Halloween. Rain chances late
this weekend into early next week continue to trend downward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Partial inland clearing this afternoon gives
way to returning low clouds and patchy fog late tonight into
Thursday morning. Seasonable temperatures persist through late
week.

Latest analysis reveals ~1034 mb surface high pressure centered
offshore of coastal New England, ridging southwest into the
lower Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Aloft, upper-level ridging
remains in place across the eastern Gulf coast, extending across
the coastal Southeast.

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery shows persistent
stratus and stratocumulus lingering across the Northern Neck,
extending SW into the southwest Virginia Piedmont, mainly south
of US-360 and west of I-95. Temperatures as of this writing
remain held down under cloud cover in these areas, with warmer
conditions in the low to mid 70s and partial sun along the coast.
Low clouds will briefly scour out into this evening before
redeveloping overnight, then scouring out again from NE to SW
Thursday morning. Areas of patchy fog are also expected late
tonight given the light onshore flow, yielding slightly milder
lows mainly in the 50s. Highs Thursday range from the upper 60s
across the western Piedmont to the low and mid-70s elsewhere.

The surface ridge anchors off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
and Friday while deepening low pressure remains suppressed near
the Bahamas. Offshore high pressure allows low-level winds to
veer SSW and become breezy Thursday afternoon through Friday.
This return flow pushes highs into the mid to upper 70s Friday
before another backdoor cold front drops across the area late
Friday into Saturday. This boundary knocks temperatures back to
near/just above climatological normal for the weekend, with
highs in the mid-60s to around 70.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather prevails through Halloween. Rain
chances late this weekend into early next week continue to trend
downward.

A northern stream longwave trough flattens the upper ridge late
this week, promoting quasi-zonal flow aloft heading into the
weekend. Halloween continues to look dry, pleasant, and
seasonable, albeit with increasing cloud cover as cooler air
wedges back in from the northeast. This will yield a partly to
mostly cloudy, cool, and dry Saturday evening, nearly optimal
conditions for trick- or-treaters.

Thereafter, the medium range picture becomes more complex.
While the pattern turns a bit more active next week, latest
ensemble suites continue to struggle with timing/resolving
precipitation placement. Guidance can agree that an anomalously
strong West Coast upper low shifts east into the Plains by early
next week. However, the 12z EPS and its machine-learning AIFS
have each trended noticeably drier, or nearly completely dry,
for early next week, keeping the bulk of overrunning moisture
suppressed to our south. The 12z GEFS and operational GFS have
trended toward the rest of the guidance envelope, but remain
relatively wet outliers. Thus, while light overrunning rain
remains possible for late Sunday night into Monday,
probabilities for meaningful wetting rainfall continue to trend
downward. Some better agreement exists that show additional
shortwave energy and rain chances arrive toward the middle to
end of next week as a broader trough develops across the
Southeast. That said, given high spread at days 7-10, confidence
in this remains low at best.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Conditions have largely returned to VFR across area terminals,
though some lingering stratus/stratocu is maintaining IFR to
low-end MVFR CIGS SW of RIC. CIGs trend back toward VFR all
terminals by mid-afternoon through early this evening. Light
NE winds 5-10kt continue through the afternoon, becoming 5kt or
less overnight. Low stratus and fog look to return late this
evening into Thursday morning over the VA piedmont, reaching RIC
after 06z tonight. Some fog and potentially some MVFR CIGs
possible at SBY/PHF late tonight. All terminals return to VFR by
mid-morning Thu, with winds veering around to the S-SW inland,
S-SE coastal terminals at 5-8 kt.

Outlook: Other than some potential for patchy AM fog,
dry WX and VFR conditions returns each morning through Sunday.
Remaining dry through most of the weekend, though some light
rain will be possible later Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 530 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect through this evening for
  nearshore NC coastal waters for 5ft seas.

- Light winds prevail tonight through Friday. A cold front
  brings the potential for Small Craft Advisories Friday night
  through Saturday.

Strong high pressure centered along the New England coast will
gradually drift to the SE and become anchored off the northern Mid-
Atlantic coast tonight and Thursday. NE winds have backed off a bit
since this morning based on latest obs that show ~10kt and gusts up
to 15kt. Seas are still a tad elevated off the NC coast as buoy obs
indicate 4-5ft seas. A Small Craft Advisory will continue through
7pm to cover this. Elsewhere, seas are 3-4ft.

Onshore flow in the 5-10kt range is forecast for late tonight
through Thursday with seas slowly coming down to 2-3ft N of the
VA/NC border. Low pressure lifts NE off the coast of Florida
Thursday night into Friday, keeping seas at 3-4 ft for the southern
ocean zones despite light winds. Winds turn to the NW at 5-10kt
Friday the sfc high over New England is pushed east by another
incoming high pressure from the NW. By late Friday night into
Saturday morning, the next cold front is forecast to drop south
through the local waters. The airmass is not particularly cold, but
pressure rises are on the order 4-5 mb/6 hr as strong (>1030 mb) sfc
high pressure builds SE from the Great Lakes. Probs for 18 kt
sustained winds have increased and anticipate that these may go up
more as the addition of the high res guidance arrives over the next
few cycles. Have maintained elevated N-NE winds during this time,
and expect SCAs may be needed for at least the lower Bay and
southern coastal waters late Fri night into Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AC/LKB