Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

402
FXUS61 KAKQ 131048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
648 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Breezy today as the pressure gradient tightens between high
pressure offshore and low pressure near the Great Lakes.

SCA headlines have been issued for marine zones north of the
VA/NC border.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry with seasonable temperatures today and Saturday. Breezy
conditions develop this afternoon. A few showers are possible
Sunday afternoon, but otherwise remaining mild along the coast,
warmer inland.

2) Another strong cold front approaches early next week, bringing
the potential for strong to severe storms Monday, with below normal
temperatures to follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with seasonable temperatures today and
Saturday. Breezy conditions develop this afternoon. A few
showers are possible Sunday afternoon, but otherwise remaining
mild along the coast, warmer inland.

High pressure is centered over the region early this morning with
strong low pressure noted over the upper Midwest. Temperatures are
much colder than recent days with mainly upper 20s and low 30s on
area observations. Patchy fog and/or freezing fog has been transient
so far this morning with highly variable visibility noted at
observation sites.

High pressure moves offshore this morning, allowing winds to become
southerly after sunrise. The gradient tightens as Midwest low
pressure translates eastward today. Southerly winds will increase to
15-20 mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. Expecting mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies this afternoon with temps rebounding
into the mid and upper 50s inland and around 50 degrees for the
Eastern Shore. A few spots in NE NC may warm into the low 60s. Not
as cold tonight with lows in the 40s. Slightly warmer on Saturday
with less wind and highs mainly in the 60s. Low pressure deepens
considerably over the central CONUS on Sunday with increasing temps
and humidity across the local area. A few showers are possible for S
and SW portions of the area late Sunday afternoon but PoPs do not
increase substantially until Sunday evening into the overnight
hours.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front approaches early next
week, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms Monday,
with below normal temperatures to follow.

00z models remain in decent agreement depicting a strong mid/upper
level trough, almost becoming cutoff near the Great Lakes by Monday
evening. At the sfc, intense low pressure is forecast to lift
NE from the mid-MS/lower OH Valley to the Great Lakes late Sun
night/early Mon. Models show this low occluding as the surface
and upper level features stack vertically. Latest guidance
continues to show a deepening trough along the Appalachians on
Monday which may allow surface winds to remain S or even SSE
ahead of the cold front. Strong deep layer shear will be in
place due to impressive wind fields aloft and would be augmented
further by any degree of low level backing from the developing
surface trough. Instability is more uncertain with most models
showing widespread clouds and showers ahead of the front, which
will limit surface heating. However, strong southerly flow will
advect increasing low level moisture into the region ahead of
the front with dew points increasing into the low/mid 60s.
Strong kinematics aloft and forcing along the cold front will
promote a mainly linear convective mode across the region with
strong straight line winds likely the primary threat. Given the
degree of deep layer shear and potential for increasing low
level shear, QLCS tornadoes are also a possibility as the line
crosses the region.

The airmass behind this system will be much cooler and significantly
drier. Highs mainly in the 40s Tue-Wed, with hard freeze probable
for much of the area Tue night. Gradually trending warmer by late in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

Mostly VFR across the region this morning with some spotty MVFR
and IFR for mainly the southern half of the area. PHF has been
LIFR/VLIFR VIS this morning. Any ground fog should mix out
quickly after sunrise with increasing southerly winds through
mid morning. The gradient tightens late morning through the
afternoon as strong low pressure passes by well to the north of
the local area. S winds mainly 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt
(highest inland and N). Gusts should calm down with the loss of
mixing. LLWS is highlighted at all terminals this evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist into early Sunday. A strong
cold front will bring the potential for flight restrictions in
SHRA/TSRA Monday, along with strong, gusty southerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect north of the VA/NC border this
  afternoon into tonight in advance of a weakening cold front.

- A strong cold front approaches from the west Monday and
  crosses the coast Monday night. Small Craft Advisory
  conditions are likely with gale conditions possible.
  Additionally, strong thunderstorm wind gusts are possible.

High pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast
early this morning. The wind is at or below 10kt out of the W/NW.
Seas range from 2-3ft N of the VA/NC border, to 3-4ft S of the VA/NC
border with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure quickly
moves offshore today into tonight as strong low pressure tracks from
the Great Lakes toward northern New England. The strongest wind
locally will be N of the VA/NC border where the wind is expected to
peak at 20-25kt with gusts to ~30kt for the Ches. Bay and MD/VA
coastal waters, with 15-20kt with gusts to 25-30kt for the rivers of
eastern VA later this aftn and early evening. Sustained 18kt wind
probs are near 100% for the Ches. Bay and 60-80% for the rivers.
Sustained 25kt wind probs for the coastal waters are 60-100% N of
Cape Charles. However, 34kt gust probs are generally less than 30%,
aside from a max off the Delmarva coast that is rather short-lived,
and this may be difficult to achieve given that SSTs are still only
~40F. SCAs are in effect for all marine zones N of the VA/NC border
beginning at noon and gradually tapering off tonight. Seas build to
3-4ft S to 5-7ft N later this aftn into this evening, with 3-4ft
waves in the Ches. Bay.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Saturday into Saturday night as
there is minimal CAA in the wake of the cold front associated with
the low that tracks N of the region. An ESE, then SE wind increases
Sunday into Sunday night with 1030+mb high pressure off the New
England coast and strong low pressure well to the W. SCA conditions
are possible in the Ches. Bay for wind, and potentially for seas in
the coastal waters by Sunday night. Low pressure lifts NE through
the Great Lakes Monday with a strong cold front approaching from the
W, which then crosses the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night. High-end
SCA conditions are likely, with a period of gale conditions possible
in southerly flow ahead of the front and WNW flow immediately behind
the front. Additionally, there is a risk for strong thunderstorm wind
gusts ahead of the front. Seas build to 5-7ft S to 7-10ft N Monday
into Monday night, with 3-5ft waves in the Ches. Bay and locally
higher at the mouth of the Bay. More benign marine conditions are
expected by the middle of next week as high pressure settles across
the region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ638-654-656.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ