Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

543
FXUS61 KAKQ 080502
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
102 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity will persist through the weekend and into
early next week. Low, but daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms continue through Sunday, mainly along and north of
a line from Richmond to Salisbury.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity will persist through the
weekend and into early next week. Low, but daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday, mainly along
and north of a line from Richmond to Salisbury.

Bermuda high pressure surface-aloft prevails off the Southeast
coast this afternoon. Meanwhile, a trough is digging into the
Ohio Valley. Showers/tstms are developing along the Blue Ridge
this afternoon. SBCAPE is ~3000J/kg locally. However, shear is
weak and there is a mid-level cap, so most of this activity
should remain N of the local area through the afternoon and
evening. However, any tstm will be capable of producing some
locally stronger wind gusts along the northern tier of the area
with DCAPE at or above 800 J/kg. Through the weekend the weather
pattern will remain quite similar with daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms along the lee trough and high terrain and sea
breeze, but most area should be dry. In addition to the showers
and tstms, the heat and humidity will persist with temps
ranging in the low to middle 90s and Heat Indices between the
upper 90s and low 100s but again remaining shy of the 105F Heat
Advisory criteria.

By early next week ensembles hint on a more zonal pattern
across the area with the strongest flow remaining north of the
area. While at the surface high pressure continues to thrive off
the coast continuing to usher in heat and moisture. During the
early to mid- week stretch the chances of showers and tstms
persist (mainly N) with the best chance possibly Wednesday as a
stronger cold front tries to move into the area. Outside of the
daily chances of showers/tstms, temperatures are expected to
rise above normal with temperatures possibly reaching into the
lower 90s. With dew points struggling to mix through the day as
the high is offshore they will remain the low to middle 70s
again allowing Heat Indices to be in the low 100s. Will note
there is a possibility that some places could reach Heat
Advisory criteria Tues and Wed but confidence at this time
remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Saturday...

Offshore high pressure continues to favor VFR conditions at
all terminals. Mostly SKC early this morning with 5-10 kt SW
winds. Chances for showers/storms today will again mostly be
confined N of a RIC- SBY line, but there remains a low (<30%)
chance. Therefore, no tempos or prob30s have been added at this
time to SBY & RIC. SCT CU and SW winds 10-15 kt w/ gusts up to
20 kt prevail outside of any convection.


Outlook: The typical late summer pattern continues Sunday into
early next week. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is
expected each day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the
  weekend and into early next week.

Bermuda high pressure remains centered offshore, keeping S-SW flow
across the local waters. Winds are currently 10-15 kt with gusts to
20 kt with 2 ft seas and ~1 ft waves. The wind is expected to
gradually shift to S/SSE late this aftn and evening due to diurnal
seabreeze influences. Overnight, winds will shift back to SW and
relaxing to 10-15 kt by Saturday morning. A similar pattern is
expected Saturday into early Sunday. The pressure gradient relaxes
slightly Sunday into early next week with a S/SW wind diminishing to
~10kt or less, which will allow for more of a true sea- breeze with
the wind shifting to SE near the coast during the aftn/early evening
hours. Seas through the forecast period will be 2-3 ft for the
coastal waters and 1-2 ft in the Ches. Bay and lower James
River.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...HET/SW
MARINE...KMC/LKB