Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

464
FXUS61 KAKQ 061942
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
342 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure along the coast gradually moves offshore this
evening. A cold front approaches tonight and moves into the
region Saturday, before lingering over the area Sunday. This
will bring a return to chances of primarily afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather returns on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Showers finally diminish across the eastern shore, with
  scattered thunderstorms affecting the VA Piedmont through
  early evening.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Saturday
  afternoon/evening. The highest coverage of storms, and the
  greatest SVR potential will be across the southern 1/2 of the
  area.

The latest WX analysis shows an upper level trough along the
coast, with a weak sfc low near the Bay and eastern shore. PWAT
values surged up to ~1.90" over the eastern shore this aftn,
bringing a persistent area of showers with locally heavy
rainfall into Accomack VA and the MD eastern shore (WAL has
received nearly 3.50" of rainfall since early this morning).
Latest radar trends show this is finally diminishing in coverage
and intensity, and should be ending over the next few hrs.
Elsewhere, the sky is partly sunny with some scattered tstms
moving ESE from the Appalachians towards the central VA
piedmont. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates ~1000 J/Kg of ML
CAPE and steep low level lapse rates (>8C/Km), along with ~30kt
of effective shear reaching to the our far western counties as
of 3PM. Instability does drop off rather significantly to the
east of there, however, which should lead to a weakening trend
with these storms as they approach the I-95 corridor. Can`t rule
out a strong to marginally SVR storm through sunset across the
piedmont, with wind as the main concern. Convection diminishes
after 8-10 PM with mainly dry, seasonable, and humid wx
expected tonight with lows in the mid- upper 60s. A few showers
potentially move in from the NW towards sunrise Sat morning,
and have this handled w/ 15-25% PoPs.

The next shortwave slides across the region Saturday morning,
which could produce some showers, mainly for VA and MD zones.
However, a cold front will approach from the NNW later in the
day and cross part of the area Saturday night. Temperatures rise
well into the 80s to near 90F across the southern 1/2 of the
FA, with upper 60s-70F dew points expected. This will allow for
ample instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along and south of
I-64 despite meager mid- level lapse rates (5.5 to 6C/km),
while the shortwave aloft/height falls will provide the
necessary lift for convection to develop by 2-3 PM initially
across central/eastern VA. Scattered to numerous tstms then move
to the SE during the late aftn/evening before exiting the area
late in the evening/overnight. Unsure how much in the way of
storms form across northern areas (from LKU-SBY) where sfc
heating won`t be as strong. But, have moderate confidence in at
least scattered tstms along and south of I-64. One factor that
could suppress convection on Saturday is if morning clouds/showers
linger long enough to impact convective initiation during the
aftn/evening. Though will note that most of the CAMs shows at
least scattered convection during the later aftn/evening. With
the instability in place combined with 30-40 kt of effective
shear, strong to severe tstms are possible. The highest threat
is south of I-64 where SPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for
severe wx, while the Marginal Risk has been maintained farther
N. Still looks like primarily a damaging wind threat with storm
mode likely becoming linear...although the initial cells may be
able to produce small hail (not as confident in large hail given
high freezing levels and only 5.5 to 6C/km mid-level lapse
rates). One other factor, is that low level winds will be rather
weak, and would tend to allow for seabreeze influences at the
coast, bringing the potential for localized earlier storm
initiation at the coast (confidence in this scenario remains
low however).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again Sunday
  as a frontal boundary lingers across the region.

- A few of the storms may be strong to severe, with damaging
  wind gusts being the main threat. The best chance of stronger
  storms is across SE VA and NE NC.

Showers/storms decrease in coverage Sat evening, but as the
next, stronger shortwave aloft (and more significant height
falls) approaches from the W into Sunday morning, will show
some additional shower chances moving back in from the W after
06Z. Lows Saturday night will mainly be in the mid 60s to around
70F.

For Sunday, with an increasing SW flow aloft, the sfc front
moves back north and likely stalls somewhere over the CWA as
secondary low pressure develops and tracks from W-E along it.
Another robust shortwave aloft is progged to quickly cross the
region during the aftn- evening. A few showers are possible
Sunday morning, with scattered-numerous tstms expected once
again during the aftn/evening. Similar to Saturday, the main
focus for severe wx will be along and south of that front (which
likely means southern VA/NE NC). Instability will again be
somewhat limited north of I-64 (and quite limited for the
eastern shore due to onshore low level flow), where forecast
highs are in the upper 70s-80F. The most likely timing for
severe wx is from 2-10 PM Sunday. The mid level flow on Sunday
will likely be a bit stronger than what it will be on Sat
(especially S), with similar amounts of instability expected.
SPC maintains a Slight Risk across SE VA/NE NC, with a Marginal
Risk farther north. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
threat, but large hail can`t completely be ruled out, given
somewhat more favorable mid level lapse rates (potentially 6 to
6.5 C/Km). There will also be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding given PWATs remaining elevated and
with the front nearly parallel to the mid level flow. Precip
quickly exits after 10-11 PM Sun night once again with lows
falling into the mid-upper 60s.

By Monday, PW anomalies return to near normal with the front washing
out across NC, so PoPs are mainly 20% or less, with the exception of
20-30% near the Albemarle Sound.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled conditions return Tuesday, with mostly dry weather
  expected by Wednesday.

Scattered-numerous aftn/evening tstms are once again expected
on Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of another (fairly
strong) shortwave trough pushing through the lower Great Lakes.
There will likely at least some sort of organized severe threat
given that the mid- level flow will be 30-45 kt with a decent
amount of instability to work with. By Wednesday, high pressure
and drier conditions potentially return to the region as the
trough axis moves offshore. Temperatures will be near normal
Tue, then trending above normal later in the week with highs
into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

IFR to MVFR conditions prevail across the eastern shore in
lingering showers, with VFR elsewhere. Scattered tstms have
initiated develop across the mountains this aftn, and some of
this activity is likely to affect the piedmont through early
evening. Overall, the storms are expected to weaken as they move
east, though a stray shower or storm could reach as far east as
RIC between about 4pm-8pm. Another period of MVFR to IFR CIGs
is possible overnight, mainly closer to the coast, and
especially on the eastern shore. A cold front will approach
from the NW Saturday bringing scattered showers/storms after
18Z, with the highest coverage expected over southern VA and NE
NC after ~20Z.

This front is expected to linger in vicinity of the region
Sunday with a high chc of showers/tstms continuing. The latest
guidance shows the front pushing S of the region Monday.
Showers/storms return Tuesday aftn/evening, then a but drier
again Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through the
weekend.

- Potential for isolated thunderstorms across the waters Saturday
and Sunday.

Current weather analysis shows low pressure off the SE VA/NE NC
coastline. This low pressure is relatively weak, which has allow
winds to be sub-SCA at 5-10 kt, more easterly in the northern
coastal waters and more northerly in the southern coastal waters.
Waves and seas are around 1 ft in the bay and 2-3 ft in the coastal
waters. As the low pressure moves further offshore, winds will shift
to be out of the south on Saturday remaining 5-10 kt. The next weak
system will approach the area Sunday afternoon, which will allow
winds to slightly increase to 10-15 kt out of the SE. With the
onshore flow, seas and waves will increase slightly to 3-4 ft and 1-
2 ft, respectively. Sub-SCA conditions is forecast to remain through
early next week. Although sub-SCA conditions remain through the
weekend, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible both
Saturday and Sunday afternoon, which may cause locally elevated
winds and seas.

Moderate rip currents remain in the forecast for all
beaches through this weekend as onshore flow will remain persistent
through today and Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...HET/KMC