Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

154
FXUS61 KAKQ 141905
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
205 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost Advisory issued for interior portions of eastern VA and
northeast NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frost Advisory is in effect for portions of
Eastern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina late tonight through
early tomorrow morning. Chilly weather continues through
Tuesday.

2) Temperatures show a gradual warming trend mid-
week through the weekend. Remaining dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 150 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost Advisory is in effect for portions of
Eastern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina late tonight through
early tomorrow morning. Chilly weather continues through Tuesday.

Temperatures that were at or below freezing were observed across the
Richmond metro and points south resulting in the growing season
being ended for portions of interior southeast VA and northeast NC.
The season was already over for the piedmont west of Richmond. Frost
Advisories and Freeze Warnings will not be issued for these areas
until the season resumes in Spring 2027.

Early afternoon weather analysis indicates UL low pressure over New
England with a strong attending trough that dips down toward the
Gulf. The trough axis swinging through the Mid-Atlantic today has
triggered broken-overcast mid level cloud cover across much of
the local FA. At the sfc, high pressure over the Mississippi
River valley is trying to build east behind a sfc low that is
well offshore. NW winds are rather gusty as cold, dry air
continues to advect into the area. Wind gusts between 20-30mph
have been observed today. Latest temps are in the upper 40s
across the far north and in the low 50s elsewhere. NBM bias
correction has been a little overzealous as of late with
overnight lows, so did decide to go a few degrees warmer than
the NBM for the forecast. Nevertheless, clearing skies and
lighter winds will still allow temps to drop to near or below
freezing away from the immediate coast. The Eastern Shore will
face lingering cloud cover and winds of 5-10kt, so lows around
40 forecast there. Widespread frost is expected for areas away
from the immediate coast (excluding the Eastern Shore). A Frost
Advisory has been issued for late tonight and early tomorrow
morning for interior portions of eastern VA and northeast NC
where the growing season has not technically ended.

Tomorrow and Monday will be quite similar to today as the overall as
the pattern will be slow to change. High pressure will slowly slide
east and the UL will gradually weaken. Highs will be in the 50s and
lows will be at or below freezing inland, mid-upper 30s at the
coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures show a gradual warming trend mid-
week through the weekend. Remaining dry.

High pressure remains largely in place through the end of the week.
Aloft, the trough looks to finally move offshore around mid week,
then a ridge builds in behind it. This will allow for a moderating
trend in temperatures through the weekend. Forecast highs are in the
mid 60s for Wednesday, then upper 60s Thurs-Sat. Lows will likely
still drop into the 30s each morning. With dry high pressure in
charge, there doesn`t look to be a relief from the dry spell anytime
soon.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/14 TAF period. BKN-OVC skies
over the terminals this afternoon, but cloud bases are 5-6 kft
AGL. Clouds are expected to gradually scatter out from south to
north as high pressure fills in, eventually becoming SKC for at
least the southern terminals. NW winds will continue to gusts
20-25kt this afternoon, then will diminish to ~10kt overnight.

Outlook: VFR conditions are favored into next week with
continued gusty NW winds, gradually diminishing Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 205 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all local waters.

- High pressure builds into the region Sunday afternoon through at
  least mid week with sub-advisory conditions expected.

Surface low pressure is now well offshore with high pressure noted
over the Mississippi Valley. NW flow between these features remains
elevated this afternoon with winds 15-25 kt, gusting 25-30 kt. Waves
are 2-4 ft in the Ches Bay with seas 4-7 ft nearshore and 6-9 ft in
the 20-60nm zones.

SCA headlines remain in effect for all local waters this afternoon.
Slow improvement is expected over the next 24 hours with SCAs ending
in the rivers and Currituck Sound this evening. Headlines in the bay
and ocean continue overnight. Small Craft Advisories in the bay are
currently set to expire early Sunday afternoon with the latest
guidance showing winds falling below SCA thresholds. However, an
additional weak CAA surge could result in another period of marginal
SCA conditions late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours, but
confidence is too low to extend SCAs in the bay at this time. Strong
high pressure builds into the region Sunday evening and well into
next week with benign marine conditions expected.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ014>016-
     030>032.
VA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for VAZ076-084-085-
     090-097-517>522-529.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633-
     635>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RHR