Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

125
FXUS61 KAKQ 042348
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
648 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated all discussions. Latest guidance has trended wetter and
shifted the axis of heavier rainfall somewhat farther northwest
for Friday, with localized rainfall amounts in excess of 2
inches becoming increasingly possible, especially across eastern
portions of the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing clouds with a few light showers or
sprinkles possible through this evening. Unseasonably warm
conditions continue through Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall
is expected Thursday night through Friday, with a few
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing clouds with a few light showers or
sprinkles possible through this evening. Unseasonably warm
conditions continue through Thursday.

High pressure continues to shift farther offshore this
afternoon as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. Cloud
cover has increased more quickly than anticipated over much of
the area. In addition, a few sprinkles and light rain showers
have developed, especially across the southern half of the area,
as moisture increases ahead of the next system. Expect this
activity to remain generally light and spotty through this
evening, with many locations staying dry. The increased cloud
cover will likely limit additional warming this afternoon,
although temperatures remain well above normal for early
November.

Mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight as additional mid-
level moisture streams into the region. Rain chances gradually
increase across our western zones tonight, with the highest PoPs
across far western Louisa, Fluvanna, and Prince Edward
counties. Temperatures remain mild with lows generally in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Another warm day is anticipated for Thursday as southerly flow
increases ahead of the approaching front. High temperatures
likely climb into the mid to upper 70s with a few locations
across SE VA and NE NC approaching 80 degrees. Skies will remain
mostly cloudy, and a few isolated showers or sprinkles will be
possible during the day. However, the more widespread rainfall
is expected to hold off until Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall
is expected Thursday night through Friday, with a few
thunderstorms possible.

Confidence continues to increase in a widespread rainfall event
Thursday night through Friday as a slow-moving cold front
approaches and crosses the region. Rain should develop across
western portions of the area late Thursday night before becoming
more widespread Friday morning. The primary forecast challenge
continues to be the placement and magnitude of the heaviest
rainfall, particularly given the potential for a wave of low
pressure to develop and track northeast along the frontal
boundary Friday.

The latest 12z guidance has trended wetter, with the ECMWF
shifting the axis of heavier precipitation a bit farther to the
northwest compared to its previous runs. The 12z EPS has
followed this trend, with increasing probabilities of exceeding
both 1 and 2 inches across eastern portions of the area. The EPS
mean now depicts rainfall amounts of 1.5 to locally over 2
inches across portions of SE VA and the MD Eastern Shore, with
considerably lower amounts farther inland. Meanwhile, the 12z
GFS remains notably wetter and farther northwest, depicting
localized amounts of 3 to 4 inches from central VA northeastward
toward the Eastern Shore.

There is a favorable environment for locally heavy rainfall,
with PWATs forecast to increase to 200+ percent of normal for
early November. In addition, guidance suggests a corridor of
enhanced mid-level frontogenesis and strong ascent associated
with the frontal boundary and a potential developing wave of low
pressure. This could support a southwest to northeast oriented
band of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, potentially
persisting over some locations for several hours. While
confidence in widespread rainfall has increased, uncertainty
still remains regarding the precise location and intensity of
this band. In general, rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.50 appears
reasonable for much of the area with 1.5 to 2 inches or more
possible across portions of eastern VA and the MD Eastern Shore.

A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible Friday,
particularly across SE VA and NE NC. Forecast soundings indicate
increasing deep-layer shear, generally 30 to 40 kts, with
modest surface based instability developing in the warm sector
(~500 J/kg MLCAPE). While the environment could support a few
stronger storms, widespread cloud cover and ongoing
precipitation will likely substantially limit destabilization.
As a result, organized severe weather is generally not
anticipated, though an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be
completely ruled out across far SE portions of the area.

Rainfall gradually diminishes from west to east later Friday
afternoon into Friday night as the cold front pushes offshore.
Drier and cooler conditions return for the weekend as northwest
flow develops behind the front. High temperatures generally
return to the 60s Saturday and Sunday with seasonably cool
overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 745 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail this evening, though some SCT-BKN clouds
in the 3000-5000 ft range remain, along with mid/high clouds
streaming in from the SW. These mid and high clouds will
continue overnight, with the potential for some lower stratus to
move in from the W after 06Z (but the increased cloud cover
should help to limit any fog). A few showers are expected
overnight/Thursday morning, mainly across western portions of
the area, but these will likely not be heavy enough to produce
any VSBY issues. Cloud bases likely lower to MVFR Thursday
morning across the west, mainly impacting RIC. Winds turn to the
SSW and increase to 10-15 kt Thursday afternoon, with mainly
VFR conditions.

Outlook: Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday, with
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms likely resulting
in periods of sub-VFR conditions. Conditions improve Friday
night into Saturday, with VFR conditions generally anticipated
through the weekend, though NW winds are likely to be gusty to
20-25 kt areawide Saturday afternoon, and again Sunday,
especially across the eastern shore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages: Sub-SCA winds continue through Friday, but winds
could reach SCA levels over the weekend in the wake of a cold
frontal passage on Friday.

Another SCA event is possible early next week when a stronger
front potentially crosses the waters.

High pressure remains anchored off the Mid-Atlantic coast this
afternoon with generally light SE winds in the 5 to 10 kt range.
The flow will gradually increase to 10 kts tonight into
Thursday as a cold front approaches the area from the west. This
will help turn winds more southerly, but the area of high
pressure off the coast holds it position and the front should
weaken and possibly dissipate before entering the coastal
waters. This will keep the southerly flow to around 10 kts into
the day on Friday. The onshore flow over the next 24 - 36 hours
will push a little more swell toward the coast with seas
increasing to 3 - 4 ft in the coastal waters.

The next upper trough approaches and deepens over the Great
Lakes on Friday and swings a cold front into the Mid-Atlantic
States. This will produce periods of showers and southerly winds
around 10 kt. Once the cold front passes the area on Friday
night, the winds will shift to the west and gradually increase
later Friday into the day on Saturday. With good cold air
advection developing in the wake of the front, expect winds to
possibly reach up to 20 - 25 kt Saturday afternoon into the
overnight hours. It is possible that SCA flags may be needed
during that time period.

High pressure will build back into the area later on Sunday,
but after this the forecast confidence drops as the models
diverge between a possible southern stream weather system over
the gulf coast possibly impacting from the south or another
strong northern stream cold push from central Canada. Will
continue to monitor develops for early next week over the coming
days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...AJB