Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

115
FXUS61 KAKQ 091025
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
625 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat and Humidity will persist through Today and into the middle of
the week with the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity will persist from today and tomorrow. A
low chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
continues Sunday, staying primarily dry Monday but cannot rule
out a few showers for the southern extent of the Hampton Roads
area/Northeast North Carolina.

2)An unsettled weather pattern looks to return to
the area Tuesday and thursday in addition to the heat and humidity
remaining in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 311 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity will persist from today and tomorrow. A
low chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
continues Sunday, staying primarily dry Monday but cannot rule
out a few showers for the southern extent of the Hampton Roads
area/Northeast North Carolina.

An offshore subtropical ridge continues to prevail as a trough
from the Great Lakes is moving into the Northeast, leading to
zonal flow for the area today and tomorrow. At the surface, an
off- shore high pressure system persists, leading to hot and
humid conditions for the area today and tomorrow. With dew
points struggling to mix out, daily high temperatures will warm
up to the mid-90s and dew points will stay in the low-mid 70s.
The combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat indices
to rise into the upper-90s/low-100s with some localized areas in
Southside Hampton Roads into areas of North Carolina between
the Chowan River and the Albemarle Sound having heat indices
reaching around 105.

In terms of storm chances for today, the combination of a
bay, river, and sea breeze later this afternoon may lead to
showers and thunderstorms for coastal Northeast North Carolina
and coastal Virginia later this afternoon into this evening. In
addition, there is also a slight chance of pops for the piedmont
as storms may fire off the high terrain and Lee Trough for this
afternoon/evening. High- res models show signals of a few
showers/thunderstorms occurring along the coast, but there
remains uncertainty on placement. The primary risk for any
cells that develop are localized flooding and lightning. The
weather pattern looks to remain consistent for Monday as the
heat and humidity persists with highs in the low to middle 90s
and heat indices hovering the upper 90s to low 100s with some
potential of 105F heat indices across the far SE. Storm chances
look minimal Monday, however, a stray shower and or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with a for parts of northeast
North Carolina from the late afternoon into the evening.




KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled weather pattern looks to return to
the area Tuesday and thursday in addition to the heat and humidity
remaining in place.

The recent 00z/09 ensembles are in decent agreement on the upcoming
synoptic weather pattern. The zonal flow pattern is expected to
break down as a ridge aloft starts to build in Tuesday across the
central United States. This will allow for WNW flow aloft to return
to the area. While at the surface, the high Bermuda high will start
to break down slightly and move over the the Gulf states. This will
allow the possibility for multiple days of  active weather (Tues-
Thurs) to return to the area. However, there still remains quite a
bit of uncertainty at this time due to some slight disagreement in
the models in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. However, the
synoptic pattern does look favorable. In addition to the storm
chances, the heat and humidity will persist Tues-Thurs. The best day
for potential Heat Headlines continues to remain Tuesday as his
looks to look like the hottest day of the week with middle 90s. At
this time not expecting dew points to mix and should remain in the
low to middle 70s. The highest confidence in potential Heat Headlines
looks to be across the SE coast where cloud clover looks to be less.
For Wed and Thurs temperatures will potentially be in the  low to
middle 90s but depending on convection and cloud cover they could be
slightly cooler. That is why at this time confidence in potential
Heat Headlines these days are low. Nonetheless, Heat Indices will
potentially be in the low 100s. By the end of the week, ensembles
hint on a cold front pushing through the area that could help lower
temperatures and dew points across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 625 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail early this morning and will continue for
most of the day. A weak boundary settles into the region
today, and this along with the sea/bay- breeze could potentially initiate
a few showers/tstms (15-25% chc) this afternoon. The wind will
generally be W/WSW 7-11 kt Sunday afternoon, but will become
onshore at the immediate coast, with and ENE wind added to ORF
TAF. Have mentioned PROB30 groups for TSRA at ORF/PHF/ECG after
18Z. Generally dry after sunset with VFR conditions tonight and
light SW winds.

Outlook: Primarily VFR Monday through Thursday. Mainly dry
Monday, with a 20-40% chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms
Tuesday/Wednesday, and ~20% Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the
  middle of the upcoming week.

Bermuda high pressure remains centered offshore early today,
keeping S-SW flow across the local waters. Latest observations
show S-SW winds averaging 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots.
Seas are running 2 to 3 feet nearshore, 3 to 4 feet offshore,
with waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. Winds diminish
later this morning, allowing for more of a seabreeze this aftn
with the wind shifting to SE near the coast during the afternoon
and evening hours, and possibly leading to a few showers/storms.

Seas average 2 to 3 feet for the remainder of the
forecast period. A weak sfc trough may shift winds to the NW
early Tuesday, with light onshore flow becoming southerly again
later in the day. Shower/storm chances will be higher Tuesday
aftn/evening and again Wednesday, leading to the potential for
brief localized higher winds, but no SCA headlines are expected
through the week. A cold front will gradually approach late in
the week and may push far enough south to shift the wind to the
N-NE by next weekend (and bring the potential for SCAs), though
uncertainty is high at this range.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET/TT
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB