Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

995
FXUS61 KAKQ 230736
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
236 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds back into the area through early next
week, leading to dry conditions. Another system impacts the area
Tuesday into the middle of next week, with cooler and drier
conditions to then follow from Thanksgiving Day into next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 236 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Patchy fog possible this morning across the area.

- Seasonable and dry conditions expected today, with chilly
  temperatures tonight after a secondary dry cold front moves
  through.

The cold front moved through the area yesterday is now well
south of the area. Only weak CAA along with a subtly drying
airmass was associated with this front, and patchy fog has been
able to develop across the forecast area this morning. High
pressure has started to build across the region which has
resulted in calm to light winds. High pressure will continue
build across the region today, with seasonal temperatures and
dry conditions expected. A clipper system moving through
southern Ontario will drag a reinforcing, dry cold front across
our area later today, with stronger CAA expected in the wake of
this front. With high pressure overhead this cooler air mass
Sunday night, the resulting mostly clear skies and light winds
will produce a good environment for radiational cooling, though
the boundary layer will remain mixed enough to limit max
radiation. A chilly night is forecast for tonight, with lows
dropping into the 30s (lower 40s along the coast).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 236 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Cooler temperatures and dry conditions Monday.

- Another storm system approaches Tuesday, with rain possible
  Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Ridging aloft will build across the region on Monday from the Mid-
South, and the surface high will settle across the Mid-Atlantic,
leading to mostly sunny skies through the first part of the
afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to breach 60F during the day
on Monday despite the abundant sunshine forecast due to ongoing CAA.
Cloud cover will start to move into the area from NW to SE as our
next system approaches the area from the west Monday evening. This
frontal system will move through the OH/TN Valley Tuesday as a
surface low occludes over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Weak
overrunning will bring gradual thickening and lowering cloud cover
Tuesday morning, with light precipitation overspreading the area
later Tuesday into Tuesday night as a warm front lifts across the
region. Temperatures will start to moderate on Tuesday and highs
will range from 60-65F across the northern counties and 65-70F
across the southern portion of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 236 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Additional rounds of showers will be likely Wednesday as a
  cold front moves through.

- Drier and cooler weather returns from Thanksgiving Day into
  next weekend.

Confidence is increasing that the cold front associated with the
aforementioned system will push through Wednesday. As this front
moves across the area, another round of rainfall is expected.
Forecast soundings are showing some meager instability that will be
in place as this front moves through the area during the day
Wednesday, so a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Global
models have trended a little quicker with this front, which would
lead to rainfall coming to an end by Wednesday night. Ahead of the
front on Wednesday, temperatures will be able to warm into the upper
60s to lower 70s. In the wake of the front, an expansive upper level
trough digs down across the eastern United States, bringing a much
cooler, drier airmass to the area. High temperatures on Thursday
will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s, while temperatures
Friday will likely be well below normal and may not even reach 50F.
Mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures will linger through
Saturday as high pressure builds across the area. Dry conditions
will persist Thanksgiving through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 134 AM EST Sunday...

There is a mixed bag of flight categories across the terminals this
morning, with some sites observing low CIGs and fog, while the
remaining are seeing VFR conditions. There continues to be
uncertainty in the development of widespread fog versus the patchy
fog we are currently seeing. Have kept mention of BR in all TAFs
from between 8-12z, though will continue to monitor fog development
over the next few hours and amend as necessary. After sunrise, any
remaining fog will clear out and mostly clear to clear skies and VFR
conditions will prevail through tonight. Winds will be light out of
the N-NE this morning before quickly veering to the W-NW later today
as a reinforcing cold front approaches the area.

Outlook:
VFR conditions will prevail through early next week. Another
system will approach the area on Tuesday, bringing a chance for
rain and periods of degraded flight conditions later Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 236 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected today, with low-end SCAs expected
  from tonight-Monday morning behind another cold front. SCAs
  have been issued for the bay and ocean north of the VA-NC
  border.

- Sub-SCA conditions quickly return on Monday and will prevail through
  Wednesday before a stronger cold front brings a round of more
  solid SCAs from Wednesday night through the end of the work
  week.

The latest wx analysis shows a ridge of sfc high pressure over the
waters, with light onshore winds at this hour. The waters remain
under the influence of the high today, which will keep wind speeds
aob 10 kt (but the wind direction will become SW by the aftn). A
secondary, dry cold front will cross the area tonight into Monday
AM. A surge of cooler/drier air will follow the FROPA, allowing
winds to become N-NW and increase to 15-20 kt over most of the
bay/ocean (w/ gusts to 25 kt). A few gusts to 30 kt are possible
over the northern coastal waters. Peak winds are expected to occur
between 12-7 AM. As such, have issued SCAs for the bay and ocean
north of the VA-NC border from 7-10 PM tonight through 10 AM Monday.
Although the SCAs are quite marginal for the SE VA coastal waters,
local wind probabilities show a 50-60% chc of 25+ kt gusts for a few
hours early Monday AM. Winds diminish quickly during the day on
Monday as high pressure settles over the waters. Sub-SCA conditions
are then expected to continue through Wednesday. A stronger cold
front crosses the area Wednesday night, likely bringing a round of
solid SCAs to the waters from Wed night through potentially Fri with
WNW-NW winds. Marginal SCA conditions are possible with the
southerly winds right ahead of the front late Wed.

Seas and waves are currently 1-3 ft across all local waters. Seas
build to 3-5 ft tonight behind the front but will quickly become sub-
SCA on Monday and remain that way until the stronger system mid-week
where seas in the northern waters will likely increase to 4-5
ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ630>632-634-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...MAM/NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...ERI/KMC