Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

471
FXUS61 KAKQ 280113
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
913 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SVR Tstm Watch has been extended in time (though 11 PM) for a
portion of south central VA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) SVR Tstm Watch has been extended for portions of south
central VA until 11 PM due to ongoing SVR storms (the Watch has ended
elsewhere). Some additional locally heavy rainfall is still possible
overnight with the cold front still to move through.

2) Drier weather returns to end the week and likely continues
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 900 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...SVR Tstm Watch has been extended for portions of south
central VA until 11 PM due to ongoing SVR storms (the Watch has ended
elsewhere). Some additional locally heavy rainfall is still possible
overnight with the cold front still to move through.

Have cancelled all remaining portions of the SVR Tstm Watch with
the exception of a small portion of south central VA where an
ongoing supercell is moving E-SE and has been putting down some
large hail. Some strong winds are also possible with this storm,
but expect this threat to diminish over the next hr as mesoanalysis
shows this cell moving into an area with limited CAPE and
developing CIN. Elsewhere, the threat for SVR WX, while non-
zero, has become more limited. Locally heavy rain is still
possible overnight as the cold front is still well back to the
N-NW of the area and will not push through until well after
midnight. PoPs diminish overnight, but will still have 30-40%
in the SE until around daybreak. Overnight lows will range
through the 60s for most (around 70F in the far SE coastal
areas).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier weather returns to end the week and
likely continues this weekend into early next week.

The front gradually pushes south of the area early Thursday as
a trough digs out of Eastern Canada into the Northeast CONUS.
For Thursday, PoPs will be confined mainly to NE NC, with a
slight chc into the piedmont for a few hrs in the aftn (where
dew pts stay a little higher in the 60s). Overall though, much
drier air will overspread the area with dew pts dropping into
the 50s across the I-64 corridor and pts northward. Due to a
well mixed BL, forecast high temperatures remain in the low-mid
80s Thursday. Dry and pleasant Thu night with lows mainly in the
50s (60s immediate coast). Friday will be mild and dry as high
pressure settles from the Great Lakes to the local area with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 F inland, and in the mid 70s
for coastal areas, after a pleasant morning with lows in the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

By this weekend, another trough digs out of Canada and pushes
another cold front south across the Mid-Atlantic. However, the
latest trends are for a stronger northern stream, which
suppresses the moisture S. 27/12z EPS/GEFS each depict PW
values remaining below normal through the weekend, and even into
early next week. For now, NBM PoPs are 20% or less Saturday
(mostly likely dry for most locations), with PoPs less than 15%
Sunday. NBM PoPs are ~20% Monday/Tuesday, which is near climo.
Temperatures will be near to a little below normal overall from
Saturday through Tuesday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and
lows mainly in the 50s, with some upper 40s possible over the
Piedmont Sunday morning. Overall, quite pleasant for the end of
May into the beginning of June.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

Showers/storms are ongoing to start the TAF period with
localized IFR-LIFR VSBYs in the heaviest downpours. Overall, the
wind threat has diminished w/ much of the region in a rain
cooled airmass, but still the potential for wind gusts up to
25-30 kt in any storm. Have included TEMPO groups at all
terminals, mainly in 2-3 hr windows through 03-05Z when the
highest probs for tstms are present. The actual cold front is
slower, not pushing through until 06-10Z. Most of the CAMs show
less moisture by that time, but a few additional showers with
embedded tstms can`t be ruled out. Have also included MVFR CIGs
at all terminals for a few hrs between 06-12Z (IFR possible but
with low confidence so did not include in the TAFs). Flight
restrictions should end for most places prior to 12Z, but could
linger at ECG a bit longer. Becoming partly to mostly sunny with
increasing N winds (NNE at ORF/ECG), with gusts to ~20 kt
(20-25 kt at SBY).

Outlook: VFR/dry Thu night through Friday. Another cold front
arrives by Saturday, but most guidance depicts this as a dry
frontal passage with increased northerly winds and VFR
conditions. High pressure and VFR conditions prevail by Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorms will bring strong wind gusts and locally higher
waves late this afternoon and evening.

- Winds become northerly behind a front Thursday, followed by light
flow Friday. Elevated onshore flow and higher seas possible this
weekend as another front moves through the local waters.

The front the brought reduced VIS and some light rain to the
northern waters earlier this morning has lifted just north of our
area. SW winds prevail this afternoon, with the strongest winds of
10-15 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts are being measured in the lower
Bay and the Rivers due to the best mixing occuring on land this
afternoon. Winds across the coastal waters are light at ~5 kts in
the northern waters, with with the southern waters measuring
westerly winds of 10-15 kts. Seas across the coastal waters range
between 2-3 ft, and waves in the Bay are measuring 1-2 ft.

While mainly benign conditions are expected, the threat for strong-
severe thunderstorms now through this evening today will likely
bring significantly higher wind gusts (40+ kt) and locally higher
waves. The associated front will drop southward across the area
early Thursday, with the wind becoming northerly. While a brief
surge in northerly winds is possible along and just behind the front
late Thursday morning, conditions should mostly stay sub-SCA. With
warmer waters across the Bay, would not be shocked to see a few
hours where winds gust to 20 kt around or just after sunrise. High
pressure will build in from NW Friday with lighter winds forecast
through the first part of Friday night. A stronger system could
bring a period of N/NE winds this weekend, with gradually building
seas and potential SCAs. There is good model agreement that a
surface low will develop over Quebec and drop down across the
Northeast and move offshore sometime on Friday night into Saturday.
There is some disagreement in timing and magnitude of the winds, so
the current wind and wave forecasts are subject to change.

Seas remain in the 2-3 ft range through at least Friday night.
Similarly, waves in the Chesapeake Bay will only be in the 1-2 ft
range. Building seas are possible later Saturday into Sunday; this
is again ultimately dependent on the magnitude of onshore flow
and strength of the lows offshore.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...SW/NB