Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

324
FXUS61 KAKQ 071113
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
713 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for portions of
  Central VA and the interior MD Eastern Shore for tonight/Wed
  AM (and added Prince Edward/Amelia).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of central VA and
the interior MD eastern shore tonight/Wed AM, with additional
Frost/Freeze headline potential for Wed night/Thu AM.

2) Dry conditions/low min RH may with somewhat breezy conditions
may lead to heightened fire weather concerns today and Wednesday,
especially for areas that received little rainfall Sunday.

3) Remaining dry through the middle of next week, with a
significant warmup starting late this week and progressing
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of
central VA and the interior MD eastern shore tonight/Wed AM, with
additional Frost/Freeze headline potential for Wed night/Thu AM.

A dry cold front is currently moving into far northern portions
of the CWA, and will drop south into NC through ~12Z or shortly
thereafter. Just high clouds are in association with this front,
and these will thin out and push farther south later today. In
the wake of this front, strong sfc high pressure (1037 mb), is
currently centered across the upper midwest, and will build E-SE
into the eastern Great Lakes by this evening. Pressure rises of
around 6 mb/6 hr are expected this morning, with deep mixing and
very dry air leading to breezy N-NW later this morning through
the aftn. High temps today will be slightly below avg (but still
close to normal), ranging from the upper 50s and low 60s along
and N of I-64 to the mid 60s across southern VA and NE NC. The
sfc high builds to nearly 1040 mb late tonight into Wed morning,
and will be centered over central NY/PA, ridging S into northern
VA. This location will not be optimal for radiational cooling
tonight, but the strength of the high is impressive, so even
with mixing tonight, overnight temps will likely drop at or
below freezing across much of the piedmont and into the MD
eastern shore away from the immediate coast. Have upgraded the
Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning, and added Prince Edward/Amelia
as well. No Frost is expected as dew pts will be quite low with
max RH values in the 60-70% range, along with continued mixing
(so there will not be any Frost Advisories for areas dropping to
near freezing). The dayshift later today could potentially add
a few more counties in the piedmont and northern Neck depending
on trends in the forecast later today. Note that the entire CWA
is active in the growing season after collaboration with
neighboring offices. Even with full sun, high temperatures Wed
will be well below normal, by around 15 degrees near the coast
where it will struggle to get out of the upper 40s/lower 50s
with onshore flow. Inland highs will be in the mid to upper 50s,
or about 10 degrees below average. RH values will be much
higher Wed night with frost formation likely in areas that drop
off to the mid 30s or colder. A light freeze will be possible on
the ern shore and northern sections of the CWA W of the Bay.
While confidence is too low to issue a Freeze Watch, additional
headlines are possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions/low min RH may with somewhat
breezy conditions may lead to heightened fire weather concerns
today and Wednesday, especially for areas that received little
rainfall Sunday.

Much drier air filters in later today on NNW winds in the wake
of the cold front pushing south of the region. Min RH values
will drop down to 20-25% for much of the region, with a few
spots in central VA possibly down to 15-20%. N-NW winds will
gust to 15-25 mph, highest across east central VA and the MD
eastern shore. These conditions may cause heightened fire weather
concerns today, though no IFDs have been issued thus far but
this will be coordinated with State Forestry Agencies this
morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Remaining dry through the middle of next week,
with a significant warmup starting late this week and
progressing into next week.

Temperatures climb back to near normal Thu aftn as the sfc high
slowly weakens, and conditions remain dry. Another upper level
trough drops across the NE CONUS Sat, but temperatures locally
continue to slowly warm back above normal Fri-Sat. There is a
very low chc for an isolated shower Sat, but to low to be in the
gridded forecast. Otherwise, temps warm well above normal Sun-
Mon with highs well into the 80s as an upper level ridge builds
across the SE CONUS. Some areas could see the 1st 90-degree
reading of the season by Tue-Wed next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z/07 TAF period. A dry
cold front is crossing over the area from NW to SE early this
morning, shifting the winds to the NNW as we approach 12Z for
all but the far SE VA and NC terminals. BKN high level cloud
cover will gradually thin out and shift S later today. Breezy
NNW winds of 10-15kt with gusts of 20-25 kt are expected late
this morning through the aftn. By this evening/tonight, winds
become NE, remaining elevated near the coast with gusts of 20-25
kt expected, while diminishing to 5-10 kt inland.

Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions through Saturday. NE winds
stay elevated Wed- Thu along the coast in SE VA and NE NC, with
winds generally 10 kt or less elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A Cold front will move through this morning, with an initial
  surge of SCA winds across the Bay later this morning.

- Strong high pressure building in behind a cold front will bring
additional SCA conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday, with
elevated seas lingering on the ocean through Friday.

Weak high pressure is centered in the vicinity of Mid-Atlantic
coast, with a dry cold front across the Ohio River Valley drifting
southwards towards the local waters this morning. Winds across the
Bay and coastal waters remain southerly between 10-15 kts with gusts
of 15-20 kts. As the aforementioned front nears the area, winds will
shift to the SW-W. As the front moves through, winds will shift to
the NW-N in its wake. Hi-res guidance is showing an initial surge of
winds behind the front, especially across the Bay, so have decided
to go ahead and start the SCAs early in the Bay. That being said,
the best CAA and pressure rises will be later in the day, and into
tonight as strong high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes and
NY/PA. A NE wind is forecast to increase back to SCA levels for most
of the area starting Tuesday night, with the highest winds expected
across the lower portions of the Chesapeake Bay and the southern
coastal waters. After that, the high is forecast to be nearly 1040
mb and become anchored from southern New England into the northern
Mid-Atlantic region. This setup leads to a long fetch of NE wind and
the models are often underdone with wind and waves. The onshore
surge should build seas to 5-7 ft (potentially higher) for the NC
and southern VA ocean zones where seas likely will remain at SCA
levels into at least Friday.

Due to the very dry and cooler air moving in behind the front, have
gone ahead and included all rivers in the SCA tonight. The northern
coastal waters north of Parramore Island will likely still remain
below SCA criteria in terms of wind gusts, but could potentially see
SCA seas so will continue to monitor that over the next forecast
cycle. As the high shifts offshore, the Middle Bay, rivers, and
northern coastal waters will see winds relaxing some, while winds
and seas remain elevated across the lower Bay and southern coastal
waters. SCA winds will linger in these waters through at least
WEdnesday afternoon, while the prolonged period of ENE winds will
keep seas elevated in the southern waters through at least Thursday,
so the SCA has been maintained through then (and may need to be
extended).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064-068-069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...AJZ/NB