Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

028
FXUS61 KAKQ 081909
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
309 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All discussion sections updated for afternoon forecast package.
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures follow a warming trend through the
end of the week and into the weekend. Pattern turns more unsettled
starting mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures follow a warming trend through the
end of the week and into the weekend. Pattern turns more unsettled
starting mid-week.

High pressure slides offshore tomorrow which will bring back
southerly sfc flow. The high will then slowly slide further east
through the end of the week. Meanwhile aloft, a ridge builds in over
the East Coast. This will lead to progressively warmer temperatures
through the end of the week. Tomorrow will largely be similar to
today, but lack of onshore flow will allow temps at the coast to
warm into the upper 70s/around 80. Highs will be around 90
Wednesday, then mid to potentially upper 90s Thursday. Friday could
perhaps be the hottest day of the period pending timing of
convection. NBM seems to be running a bit hot compared to
outputs from the global ensembles/deterministic models (100-105
compared to 95-98). The projected thicknesses suggest the latter
to be more likely. Clouds and convection may inhibit temps as
well, especially if there`s a morning round of showers as 12z
guidance suggests. It is worth nothing that the record temp for
Richmond on Friday is 100F and the modeled ridge position plus
potential precip does not seem conducive to breaking records.
Nevertheless, it will still be a hot day with highs likely in
the upper 90s and heat indices around 100- 103F. Temperatures
level out slightly over the weekend in the low 90s.

There will also be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday through the weekend as the pattern turns more
unsettled. These will likely be diurnal, peaking in coverage in
the late afternoon/early evening each day.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

A stubborn section of BKN-OVC stratus persists near the coast
this afternoon bringing MVFR CIGs to ORF and PHF. VFR conditions
prevail at SBY/RIC/ECG. Should hopefully see that patch of
lower, thicker clouds scatter out later this afternoon. VFR will
then prevail across all terminals through the remainder of the
18z/08 TAF period. Gusty NE winds continue through the evening,
diminishing to 5-10kt after 00z tonight and becoming easterly.
Light winds persist tomorrow becoming southerly.

Outlook...High pressure builds across New England in the wake
of the cold front Tuesday with VFR conditions expected. High
pressure shifts offshore Wednesday/Thursday with a chance of
mainly diurnal showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all local waters
through this evening or overnight.

- A period of elevated southerly flow is possible from late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions may
be possible, particularly across the coastal waters.

Marginal SCA conditions (ENE winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt
and waves 3-4 ft Ches Bay) will continue through this evening for
the tidal rivers of eastern VA, the Ches Bay and Currituck Sound and
thus SCAs remain in effect until 7 pm for these areas. Additional
SCAs will remain in effect for the coastal waters north of
Chincoteague until 10 pm, for the coastal waters south to the NC
border until 1 AM Tuesday, and south to Currituck Light thru 6 AM
Tuesday. This is mainly for seas of 4-5 ft (potentially up to 6 ft
off the northern OBX). Winds become E 10-15 kt this evening,
becoming light (5-10 kt) overnight as high pressure builds into the
area.

High pressure moves offshore Tue evening into Tue night. Winds
become SE 15-20 kt late Tue afternoon before becoming S Tue night
behind the high. S winds increase to 15-25 kt across the coastal
waters late Wed into Wed night before diminishing late Wed night
into Thu. Uncertainty remains moderate regarding whether or not SCA
criteria will be reached across the Ches Bay. However, confidence is
increasing in SCA conditions across the coastal waters with this
surge due to a combination of elevated winds and seas building to 4-
6 ft. Generally benign marine conditions (outside of any convection)
are likely from Thu into next weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...JDM