Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

420
FXUS61 KAKQ 050733
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
233 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry conditions continue today. A weakening
cold front approaches and crosses the area later Tuesday into
Wednesday, but dry conditions will continue. Temperatures warm
above normal Tuesday through late week. A stronger cold front
likely crosses the area Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 233 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonable and dry weather prevails today.

Morning weather analysis shows primarily zonal flow aloft. While at
the surface, a 1024mb high pressure continues to slowly move
offshore. High level clouds have engulfed the area as a weak
shortwave passes well north of the area. Cloud cover has kept
temperatures from dropping and they continue to remain in the upper
20s to low 30s. Through the rest of the morning clouds will clear
across the south but will persist across the north with perhaps a
brief period where the cloud cover breaks. This will allow
temperatures to fall into the middle 20s across the south. While
across the north temperatures will struggle to drop but due to the
potential of some little clearing it should be enough for temps to
fall into the low 20s. Through the day high pressure will continue
to slide offshore allowing for southerly flow to return. With the
southerly flow returning temperatures will be close to seasonable.
Highs across the south will be in the low to middle 50s with perhaps
upper 50s across the far SE. While to the north temperatures will
remain in the upper 40s due to cloud cover persisting through the
day. The Maryland Eastern Shore will be in the low to middle 40s as
the southerly wind comes off he much cooler bay and Atlantic. High
pressure remains offshore tonight allowing for southerly flow to
persist. This will keep temperatures above freezing and lows will be
in the middle to upper 30s across VA and NC and low to mid 30s
across the Eastern Shore.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

By Tuesday, a ridge starts to amplifies along the East Coast of the
United States allowing for the warming trend to start. With the high
pressure remaining off the SE coast southerly flow persists
increasing temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s across VA and
NC. While across the MD Eastern SHore temps will only be in the low
to middle 50s. Will note that the NAM continues to be an outlier on
high temperatures for Tuesday. It tries to build a wedge in place
that keeps the area cooler as low clouds persist. Will continue to
monitor trends but at this time it continues to be an outlier.
Temperatures remain mild over night with lows only dropping into the
mid to upper 40s. On Wednesday a low pressure system will track
across the Great Lakes region into New England the cold front of
this system will push through our area. No precipitation is expected
with the associated cold front due to the lack of moisture. Ahead
of the front temperatures will warm into the low to middle 60s with
upper 60s possible across the far south. Upper 50s expected across
the MD Eastern Shore. Minimal CAA is expected behind the front and
lows Wednesday will drop into the middle to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 233 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Remaining mild Thursday into Friday.

- A stronger cold front approaches the area later Friday into
Saturday with increasing rain chances.

Temperatures Thursday will be slightly cooler but still above
average for this time of year as a high pressure slides out west.
High temperatures will range in the low to middle 60s across NC and
VA and middle 50s across the MD Eastern Shore. As the end of the
week approaches models hint on multiple low pressures developing to
the west. However, there remains some disagreement within the
deterministic long range models and their ensembles. On Friday there
will be the first system that will track to the west and its weak
front will pass through the area. However, the ensembles have backed
off on precipitation with this front and only a chance pops across
the NW and slight chance across the east. Highs ahead of the front
will warm into the upper 60s to low 70s. Additionally, Saturday also
continues to remain uncertain. Models have trended slower with the
second system and its front that will potentially impact the area.
If this system trends slower it will allow for additional moisture
to return into the area. With some additional daytime heating and
little moisture there could be enough fuel to potentially see the
first thunderstorms of the year. With the front trending slower
highs could potentially remain in the middle to upper 60s and low
70s across the SE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1206 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z/05 TAF period, as high
pressure remains over the region. SCT-BKN high to mid level clouds
are moving into the area from the NW this evening and will
linger through the period. The mid level cloud cover will
continue to increase this morning as well. Winds will be light
and variable tonight before becoming southerly later this
morning, increasing to 5-10 kt.


Outlook: Low chance in MVFR CIGs Monday night into Tuesday.
Otherwise, dry/VFR conditions through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 233 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected during the early to middle
  portion of the week as high pressure builds over the region and then
  settles off the Southeast coast.

High pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast early this
morning. The wind is N/NE 5-10kt. Seas range from ~3ft S to ~2ft N,
with 1ft waves in the Ches. Bay and 1-2ft at the mouth of the Bay.
High pressure nudges offshore by this aftn. This will allow the wind
to shift from N/NE to E/SE 5-10kt this morning, and then S 8-12kt by
this aftn. High pressure settles off the coast tonight through
Wednesday. The wind becomes SW 8-12kt this evening, before
diminishing overnight. A S wind of 5-10kt is expected Tuesday
morning, which increases to 10-15kt later in the aftn. The wind
becomes SW 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt Tuesday night ahead of a
weakening cold front. Probs for sustained 18kt are negligible
across the Ches. Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound and SCAs are
unlikely at this time. Seas build to 3-4ft offshore Tuesday night,
with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The cold front drops across the
coast Wednesday with a 10-15kt W wind in the morning, becoming NW 5-
10kt later in the aftn. High pressure returns Wednesday night into
Thursday. High pressure settles offshore Friday into Saturday in
advance of a cold front. The wind becomes SW and potentially
increases to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt Friday night into Saturday.
Seas initially subside to 2-3ft later Wednesday into Thursday, and
then potentially build to 4-5ft offshore Friday night into Saturday.
In summary, pre-frontal SCAs are possible Friday night into Saturday
based on the timing from the 00z/05 guidance. Based on the latest
data, the cold front does not cross the coast until early Sunday
with post-frontal SCAs possible.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/HET
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...AJB/HET
AVIATION...HET/KMC
MARINE...AC