Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

004
FXUS61 KAKQ 050600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Section. No significant changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and wet weather continues this afternoon. Gradually drying
out tonight.

2) Seasonable temperatures and dry this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and wet weather continues this afternoon.
Gradually drying out tonight.

This afternoon, a frontal boundary is located just to the E/SE of
the local area (along the SC and NC coasts) with weak areas of low
pressure moving along it. Meanwhile, high pressure over eastern New
England continues to wedge south into the Mid Atlantic, reinforcing
a cool/overrunning layer across the local CWA. Widespread light to
moderate rain currently stretches from central/eastern VA over to
the Eastern Shore and down into NE NC. Temperatures range from the
low-mid 60s NW to the low 70s across the far SE. Rain will taper off
from NW to SE later this afternoon and evening as the coastal front
moves further offshore and drier air gradually filters in. Clouds
will be slow to clear and mostly cloudy to overcast skies are
expected to persist through tonight. Low temperatures


KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures and dry this week.

Cold advection will initially lag behind the secondary front on
Monday. So, temps will actually be warmer than this weekend for most
locations as the sun makes a reappearance. Highs should be in the
70s for all of our CWA, warmest W of the Chesapeake Bay. The more
pronounced cooler and drier air arrives Monday evening into Monday
night as ~1025 mb high pressure builds down toward the Mid-Atlantic
from the Great Lakes region. Markedly cooler Monday night as lows
dip into the 50s for SE VA/NE NC, with mid to upper 40s elsewhere.
The cooler/dry theme continues into the midweek period as the high
pressure system builds overhead. Tuesday should feel most like fall
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland (low-mid 60s Eastern
Shore). Similarly, Tuesday`s overnight lows will also be the coolest
of the week. The current forecast has 40s for most of the area,
though a light onshore wind near the coast likely keeps these areas
in the 50s. Should also note that some upper 30s are not out of the
realm of possibility, especially for rural and typically cooler
locations in the Piedmont.

Upper-level heights rebound some by Wednesday and a gradual warming
trend is expected through the end of the week. Subsidence and a very
dry 700-300 mb layer will also keep everyone dry. The next chance of
rain is not until next Saturday night or Sunday, but the exact
details still need to be ironed out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

Weak low pressure and a stationary front linger offshore as of
06z. Meanwhile, a narrow ridge of surface high pressure was
located over the Piedmont. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions
continue with stratus and areas of drizzle and mist. Vsby is
expected to gradually fall inland over the next few hours, with
RIC having the best chc of experiencing vsby reduced to less
than 2sm. Drier air is expected to gradually filter in from the
N after 12z, with cigs expected to lift between 12-15z.
Primarily VFR with decreasing clouds after 15z with a N/NNW
wind ~10kt, and locally gusting to near 20kt at SBY during the
aftn. VFR under a mostly clear sky tonight. A dry cold front
slides across the area tonight. This will likely result in a NNE
wind of 10-12kt at ORF and ECG late tonight into early Tuesday
morning, which could briefly gust to near 20kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail Tuesday and continue through
much of the week. The next chances for sub-VFR conditions are
likely not until next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected tonight before a
cold front brings higher winds/waves/seas to the area Monday night
into Tuesday.

Weak low pressure is noted over the eastern Carolinas along a
stalled frontal boundary. Northeast winds are generally 5 kt or less
across the local waters but remain ~10 kt across the far northern
coastal waters. Waves are 1-2 ft in the bay with seas offshore
running 3-4 ft.

Seas have been slow to subside today with most buoys continuing to
show 3-4 ft despite the weak winds. Seas have likely been in the 4-5
ft range off of Ocean City, MD where winds have been strongest
through the morning. Winds turn NW and increase to around 10 kt
tonight and Monday. A cool/dry surge will allow winds to turn NE and
increase to ~15 kt in the bay/rivers/sound and 15-20 kt offshore
Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region.
12z models continue to show only very marginal SCA conditions across
the area during this period. One exception may be the southern
coastal waters from VA Beach southward where 4-5 ft seas are
possible late Monday night and Tuesday morning. High pressure builds
over the area Tuesday and moves offshore Wednesday with flow
becoming SE then S by Thursday. A weak front looks to cross the area
Thursday night into Friday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to
prevail Tuesday afternoon through the end of the week.

A Moderate Rip Risk is forecast for all beaches on Monday with a
Moderate Rip Risk expected for the southern beaches on Tuesday. A
low Rip risk for all beaches expected Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...RHR