Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

084
FXUS61 KAKQ 071910
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
310 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in rainfall has increased Saturday night into early
Monday from remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable to slightly above average temperatures and dry
conditions through Saturday.

2) Moisture and rain chances return Saturday night into early
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable to slightly above average temperatures and dry
conditions through Saturday.

High pressure remains centered over the area extending across the
southeast CONUS to offshore New England this afternoon. An upper
level trough over north central Canada will continue pushing the
high pressure further offshore tonight and Thursday, as well as
dragging a weak cold front across the area Thursday night.
Additionally, Tropical Storm Isaias sits in the southwestern Gulf,
slowly drifting east before making a northern turn. Temperatures
today have moderated back to near normal, sitting in the lower to
mid 70s, with the exception of the immediate coast and Eastern Shore
which are in the upper 60s. Tonight`s lows won`t be as chilly as
last night, with expected lows in the mid 50s inland and upper 50s
along the coast. With the high pressure shifting more offshore
Thursday, temperatures will rise to the upper 70s to lower 80s (mid
80s inland) ahead of the aforementioned cold front. This cold front
crosses the region Thursday night with temperatures trending down to
near seasonal averages Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions continue
through Saturday. However, a gradual increase in high levels clouds
is expected as upper level moisture spreads over the region well in
advance of remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture and rain chances return Saturday night
into early Monday.

By Sunday and Monday, there is increasing confidence that moisture
gets pulled northward and then pushed eastward across the region as
Isaias makes landfall and merges with an upper trough in vicinity of
the Mid-South. The 12z/07 global models have came into better
agreement of rainfall timing showing late Saturday night/early
Sunday morning timeframe. Heavy rain is possible as ample moisture
will be present, 12z ensemble guidance continuing to show PW values
at or above 200% of normal along with a plume of instability surging
N ahead of the trough. However, there is still considerable spread
between the 10th and 90th percentile QPF in the 12z/07 ensemble
guidance. In general, the 10th percentile (reasonable low-end)
accumulated precip through 00z Tuesday is 0.25-0.5", while the 90th
percentile is on the order of 1.5-3.0". The 50th percentile (most
likely case) shows a generalized 0.75-1.25" of rainfall, with the
highest rainfall totals in the souther half of the area. PoPs have
increased to 90-95% from late Saturday night to early Monday morning
to account for the increased confidence. Behind this system, drier
air will filter back in later Monday through the middle of the week.
Temperatures should remain near average late this weekend through
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure remains centered over the region this afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18z/07 TAF
period. Winds are light around 5-10kt generally out of the S-SE.
Winds at ORF are ENE due to the sea-breeze this afternoon.
Clear skies will continue through tonight with very light S-SW
winds.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue through much of the week. The next
chance for sub-VFR conditions does not arrive until late this
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through Saturday.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely late this weekend into early
  next week as the remnant tropical system tracks through the
  central US, with high pressure well off the east coast.

Surface high pressure is centered offshore of the Delmarva this
afternoon. Winds are generally light and out of the E-SE, with
seas only 1-2 ft and waves in the Bay/rivers generally 1 foot or
less. Winds shift to the S into this evening, and then to the SW
later tonight. Those SW winds could frequently gust to ~20 kt,
especially N of New Point Comfort in the Chesapeake Bay and N of
Cape Charles on the ocean. However, don`t expect any need for
SCAs at this time. Light winds return for Thursday as the
pressure gradient again slackens, with weak afternoon sea/bay
breezes expected. A weak cold front moves through overnight
Thursday and northerly winds increase to 10-15 kt by early
Friday morning. Lighter winds return Friday afternoon with high
pressure again settling over the area.

The marine forecast over the weekend continues to be dependent
on the future track of the remnant low of tropical cyclone
Isaias, which is currently forecast to make landfall somewhere
along the central Gulf coast Friday night. High pressure will
retreat as the (remnant) system moves northward through the TN
Valley and easterly winds are expected to slowly expected to
increase by Saturday over the local waters. A further increase
in winds, and a shift to the S-SE is expected Sunday, but exact
specifics are difficult to highlight at this point. Regardless,
a period of Small Craft Advisories is likely Sunday-Monday

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ/KMC
MARINE...LKB/SW