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Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Tuckahoe VA
National Weather Service Forecast for: Tuckahoe VA
Issued by: National Weather Service Wakefield, VA
Updated: 4:33 pm EDT Jul 3, 2026
 
Tonight

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 78. Light southwest wind.
Mostly Clear

Independence
Day
Independence Day: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Sunny and hot, with a high near 103. Heat index values as high as 111. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunny then
Chance
T-storms
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm  in the evening.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms

Sunday

Sunday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Heat index values as high as 108. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunny then
Slight Chance
T-storms
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8pm and 2am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm  after midnight.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms then
Chance
Showers
Monday

Monday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 96. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Mostly Sunny
then Showers
Likely
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Showers
Likely

Tuesday

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Partly Sunny
then Chance
T-storms
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 2am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
T-storms then
Chance
Showers
Lo 78 °F Hi 103 °F Lo 75 °F Hi 101 °F Lo 74 °F Hi 96 °F Lo 73 °F Hi 91 °F Lo 72 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Extreme Heat Warning
 

Tonight
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 78. Light southwest wind.
Independence Day
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 103. Heat index values as high as 111. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Heat index values as high as 108. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 96. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday Night
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.
Wednesday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 93.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 73.
Friday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Tuckahoe VA.

Weather Forecast Discussion
352
FXUS61 KAKQ 031842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
242 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- There is a Slight Risk for severe weather for most of Virginia
  on Saturday. A 30% wind risk has been added for much of the
  northern half of the forecast area including the Richmond
  metro over to portions of the MD Eastern Shore.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A prolonged and widespread heat wave will continue through the
holiday weekend before breaking down early next week. This has the
potential to be the most significant in both magnitude and duration
since July 2012 for most of the forecast area.

2) The risk for thunderstorms gradually increases over the next few
days. Any storm that develops could produce strong to severe wind
gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rain.

3) Temperatures gradually trend closer to normal by early next week,
with the potentially for unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A prolonged and widespread heat wave will continue
through the holiday weekend before breaking down early next week.
This has the potential to be the most significant in both magnitude
and duration since July 2012 for most of the forecast area.

This afternoon, an anonymously strong upper-level dome of high
pressure, with the current analysis placing the strength of the high
at ~596 dm, remains in control of the weather pattern. At the
surface, ~1021 mb high pressure is centered over the local area.
Temperatures this afternoon have already climbed well into the mid-
upper 90s, with a few locations already approaching 100 F.
Temperatures will continue to climb over the few hours, with highs
expected to range from the upper 90s to the lower 100s. The heat,
combined with very humid conditions (dewpoints in the low to mid
70s, locally upper 70s to around 80) will allow for widespread heat
indices around or in excess of 110 F into the early evening hours.
Not much relief from the heat is expected tonight with low
temperatures only dropping into the upper 70s and urban areas will
likely see temperatures struggle to drop below 80 F. Heat indices
likely remain elevated to 100+ F through ~10 PM (especially in the
urban areas).

The upper pattern gradually starts to break down later tomorrow and
especially Sunday into early next week. Similar to today, Saturday
will see high temperatures in the upper 90s to the lower 100s with
widespread heat indices of 110+ F. There is a higher risk for
thunderstorms Saturday, particularly N of the NC/VA state line, and
this could put an early end to dangerous heat indices. Regardless,
we remain quite confident that at least the 10 AM-3 PM time period
will be dangerously hot. A degree or two cooler by Sunday (but still
very hot) as 850 mb temps begin to drop, cloud cover becomes a bit
more prevalent, and additional chances for showers/storms return in
the afternoon.

Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect for most of the area this
afternoon through Saturday evening. Heat Advisories remain in effect
for the MD Beaches and northern Outer Banks. Sunday will likely need
at least Heat Advisories for a majority of the forecast area, with
the potential for Extreme Warnings in a few locations. We will
revisit Sunday heat headline decisions in future forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGE 2...The risk for thunderstorms gradually increases over
the next few days. Any storm that develops could produce strong to
severe wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rain.

With the strong ridge aloft, subsidence is favored. A stout cap is
also in place over the area, which can be seen on the afternoon GOES
visible satellite imagery with only limited afternoon cumulus just
now beginning to form across the local area. Given this, combined
with surface high pressure and a lack of forcing, expecting little
to no shower or thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening,
with dry conditions prevailing. However, it should be noted that if
a storm can develop in this environment, surface-based CAPE values
in excess of 4000 J/kg across a majority of the forecast area
combined with steep low-level lapse rates would favor strong
downbursts. As a result, SPC does have northern and western portions
of the area highlighted in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for
severe weather this afternoon and evening.

There is higher confidence in at least scattered thunderstorm
potential on Independence Day/Saturday as the ridge begins to break
down. Would expect any storms to develop in the lee of the higher
terrain or in the Piedmont, moving eastward in the deep-layer
westerly flow into the evening. There is again a risk for severe-
caliber wind gusts given the very favorable thermodynamic
environment and a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) encompasses most of
our VA and MD counties. Additionally, a belt of slightly higher
flow/shear across the northern half of our area could also allow for
an area of enhanced severe potential where some potential for
upscale growth into a cluster-type feature is possible. SPC has
highlighted this area in a 30% wind risk for Saturday. These storms
could interfere with evening festivities so users are urged to
closely monitor the weather and have a plan in place due to impacts
from both the heat and storms.

Additional threats of strong-severe storms are on the table both
Sunday and Monday, with higher confidence in more widespread
coverage these days. Damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and
frequent lightning will be the primary storms threats.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures gradually trend closer to normal by
early next week, with the potentially for unsettled weather.

The ridge becomes shunted to our south beyond Monday, with the upper-
level flow turning quasi-zonal. This pattern is very typical for the
middle of summer with daily chances for showers and storms expected
in the midst of surface troughing and weak disturbances passing
through aloft. Temperatures will also trend back toward seasonal
norms for most of next week, generally in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions will continue throughout the 18z/03 TAF period.
FEW to SCT afternoon cumulus through ~23z-00z, with skies
becoming mainly clear overnight into Saturday morning. Winds are
light, ~5 knots, out of the S-SW, with variable winds along the
coast. Winds will remain light into Saturday morning. Haze
continues at PHF and RIC with occasional MVFR VSBY
restrictions possible.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions will continue through the
weekend. There is potential for isolated to scattered
showers/storms each afternoon and evening Saturday through early
next week, which could lead to briefly degraded flight
conditions at any terminal that sees any of this convection.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions will prevail through the weekend, with
mainly south-southwesterly winds.

- Elevated wind gusts from strong thunderstorms are possible during
afternoon and evening hours Saturday and Sunday.

Surface high pressure is centered over the area extending into the
SE CONUS from a strong upper air ridge over the East Coast. Winds
are generally out of the SSW around 5-10 kt with waves around 1 ft
and seas around 2 ft. Mostly south-southwesterly winds will continue
through at least the weekend, likely into early next week. There
will likely be some diurnal variances in wind speed and direction
throughout the day from land/sea breezes over the next few days.
Seas will remain around 2-3 ft with waves 1-2 ft through the weekend
as well. Benign marine conditions will continue through at least the
weekend, likely into mid week, as the high pressure remains dominant
over the area and is slow to break down. The risk of isolated to
scattered tstms increases over the next few days, which could
produce some gusty winds Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening.
Any stronger wind gusts will be handled with SMWs if necessary.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs:

- Site:  Fri 7/3    Sat 7/4    Sun 7/5

- RIC:  100/1954   100/2002   102/2012
- ORF:   99/1954    98/1997    98/2012
- SBY:   98/1954   100/1919   102/2012
- ECG:   98/1954   100/1997   100/2012

Record High Mins:

- Site:  Fri 7/3    Sat 7/4    Sun 7/5

- RIC:    77/2014    77/1900    79/2012
- ORF:    78/2014    79/2012    80/1999
- SBY:    76/2014    78/2012    81/2012
- ECG:    78/2014    78/2012    77/2024

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ radar is down due to mechanical issues without an
estimated time of return.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>024.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ025.
NC...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ102.
VA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097>100-509>525-528>531.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJB/AJZ
CLIMATE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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