Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

032
FXUS61 KAKQ 091910
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
310 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. PoPs have increased
some for Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity persists through mid week with head indices in
the upper 90s to near 105F.

2) Low chance of showers/storms today and Monday with a more
unsettled pattern returning Tuesday through Thursday. Storms
Tuesday and Wednesday may bring damaging wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity persists through mid week with head indices in
the upper 90s to near 105F.

Latest analysis shows the offshore subtropical ridge continuing to
prevail, as a trough from the Great Lakes is moving into the
Northeast CONUS, leading to zonal flow for the area today and
tomorrow. At the surface, the Bermuda high remains in place helping
the hot and humid conditions before breaking down over the next few
days. Temperatures at the time of writing are in the lower 90s with
dewpoints in the lower 70s. The high temperature will be a few
degrees warmer, and with the humidity, heat indices are in the upper
90s to lower 100s (near 105F in localized areas in Southside hampton
Roads and into areas of North Carolina between the Chowan River and
the Albemarle Sound).

The hot and humid conditions will continue over the next couple of
days. Dewpoints look to mix out some Mon, with heat indices likely
reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s. The best potential for any
head headlines is Tues, as dew points look to be in the lower to mid
70s with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s and values
around 105F in SE VA/NE NC where the cloud cover looks to be less.
Model ensembles depict a cold front crossing the area late week,
which could help lower temperatures and dew points Fri into the
weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Low chance of showers/storms today and Monday with a more
unsettled pattern returning Tuesday through Thursday. Storms Tuesday
and Wednesday may bring damaging wind gusts and localized
flooding.

With the aforementioned zonal flow across the area today and
tomorrow, shower/storm chances will be low across the area. Hi-res
models depict isolated pop-up showers across the area today, firing
off the higher terrain to the west from the lee trough in the
piedmont or off the bay/sea breeze near the coast. Overall, there is
only about a 15-20% chc of showers/storms today. Confidence is low
in the exact placement or timing, as determining where or when a
shower may fire up is like guessing which popcorn kernel will pop
first. Coverage looks to be even less Mon with only a stray shower
possible in the SE Monday aft/evening.

A more unsettled pattern evolves Tues through Thurs. The zonal flow
pattern is expected to break down, as a ridge aloft starts to build
in Tuesday across the central United States. This will allow for WNW
flow aloft to return to the area. While at the surface, the Bermuda
high will start to break down slightly and move over the the Gulf
states. This could allow for multiple days of active weather (Tues-
Thurs) to return to the area. However, there still remains quite a
bit of uncertainty at this time, due to some slight disagreement in
the models in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Confidence is
highest of shower/storm development on Tues with 30-60% PoPs across
the area, highest north. Storm development Wed and Thurs will depend
on leftover boundaries and meso features. SPC has the majority of
the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather Tuesday
and a Day 4 15% chance of severe weather, which translates to a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) for a large portion of the area Wed.
Damaging winds and localized flooding are the primary concerns with
any storm.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/09 TAF period. Winds are
mostly SW around 5-10 kt this afternoon. Recent hi-res models show
the possibility of a pop-up shower/storm this afternoon and evening,
but these showers/storms will be very hit or miss. Confidence is low
on when and where any shower/storm may form (only a 15-20% chc PoP),
so have removed the PROB30 from the SE terminals. Winds decrease
overnight, returning to WSW 5-10 kt Monday.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions continue through Thursday. Mainly
dry Monday with a 30-60% chc of aftn/evening showers/storms Tuesday
and Wednesday, and ~20% chc Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the
  middle of this week.

Bermuda high pressure remains centered well offshore this aftn.
Meanwhile, a lee side trough is located inland. The wind is
generally SW 5-10kt. However, the pressure gradient has
slackened and there is a hint at a sea-breeze developing along
the coast. Seas are ~2ft nearshore, 2-3ft offshore, with ~1ft
waves in the Ches. Bay. With a sea-breeze developing, the wind
should become S/SSE 10- 15kt later this aftn into this evening,
before becoming SW overnight. A similar pattern is expected
Monday with a lighter SW wind of 5-10kt during the day becoming
S/SSE 10-15kt later Monday aftn and evening. A brief wind shift
to NW 8-12kt is possible early Tuesday as a weak surface trough
tracks across the coast, before becoming light onshore and then
southerly later in the day. Shower/tstm chances will be higher
Tuesday aftn/evening and again Wednesday, leading to the
potential for brief localized higher winds, but no SCA headlines
are expected through the week. A cold front will gradually
approach late in the week and may push far enough south to shift
the wind to the N-NE by next weekend (and bring the potential
for SCAs), though uncertainty is high at this range. Seas
throughout the week will be ~2ft in the coastal waters, 2-3ft in
the offshore waters, and 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the
Ches. Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/KMC
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...AJZ/LKB