Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

051
FXUS61 KAKQ 302353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
653 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler and breezy conditions are expected today. Cool and
dry conditions will continue through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 650 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Less wind overnight. Lows in the mid to upper 20s.

- A few flurries or light snow showers are possible across the
  Northern Neck or Eastern Shore early Wed morning.

Evening sfc analysis indicated strong low pressure in Canada
with high pressure over the south-central CONUS. S deep trough
was noted over the eastern half of the CONUS with its axis
along the east coast. A chilly airmass remains in place with
temps as of 630 PM generally in the lower 30s across the area.
Winds are expected to diminish overnight. A disturbance passes
through the flow aloft overnight, leading to an increase in
cloud cover. Despite less than ideal radiational cooling
conditions, temps will still be able to drop into the mid 20s
for most locations with upper 20s immediately along the coast.
Additionally, latest model guidance shows deeper moisture with
the shortwave early Wed morning. In fact, the NAM, RAP, HRRR,
EURO, and EPS all now show the potential for light snow showers
or flurries across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore early Wed
morning. Given temps well below freezing, if snow does occur,
then a quick dusting on roads would be possible. However, all
model guidance shows very light moisture with snowfall total of
<0.5".

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Below average temperatures continue through Thursday night as
  a dry cold front crosses the area.

The Mid-Atlantic remains sandwiched between high pressure to the
south and low pressure well to the N on Wednesday. The UL trough
remains in place as well. Not quite as cold, but still on the chilly
side with highs generally in the mid 40s with a breeze strong enough
to keep wind chills in the 30s for most of the day. Lows Wed night
are forecast to be in the upper 20s across the far north and low 30s
elsewhere. A reinforcing dry cold front drops through the area early
Thursday morning. Couldn`t rule out a stray flurry with the front,
but any sort of precip looks unlikely at this point. Highs on Thurs
will be in the mid to upper 30s across the N and low to mid 40s
along and S of I-64. Lows in the low-mid 20s return Thurs night with
some of typical colder spots perhaps seeing the upper teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Near to below average temperatures and dry weather is expected
  through the bulk of the extended period.

The upper trough remains in place through the weekend, though it
becomes a bit less amplified by Sunday. Looks to be mostly dry
through the period under the continued NW flow. Rain chances for
Saturday have decreased yet again as the latest guidance shows low
pressure and associated precip suppressed well to the S. Was not
quite ready to wipe out rain chances entirely, so maintained a
slight chance across NE NC Sat. Highs Fri-Sun will be pretty similar
each day. Forecasting highs ranging from around 40 in the far
north to around 50 in the far south. Temps could moderate a bit
early next week, but uncertainty is higher given differences between
the global models.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. Mid-level
clouds increase in coverage overnight before moving offshore by
mid morning on Wed. CIGs remain VFR (5000-10000 ft). Mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected on Wed. W winds
diminish to around 5 kt tonight, becoming SW 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt Wed. Additionally, a few snow showers or
flurries are possible across the Northern Neck and Eastern
Shore early Wed morning. However, confidence remains low.

Outlook: Dry and generally VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through mid-late week. Some hi-res model guidance shows
the potential for a line of brief snow showers or flurries
moving from NW to SE early Thu morning. However, confidence
remains very low.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this
  evening/early tonight as westerly winds gradually subside
  behind a cold front.

- Additional SCAs are possible later Wednesday and especially
  Wednesday night-Thursday morning, ahead of and behind another
  cold front.

Strong (sub-970 mb) low pressure is located NE of Maine this
afternoon with high pressure well SW of the region. The pressure
gradient between these features is leading to continued gusty winds
out of the W/WNW, though the speeds are quite a bit lower than
earlier this morning. Although winds will continue to gradually
decrease through this evening, will keep the ongoing Small Craft
Advisories in effect through this evening on the coastal waters and
through early tonight on the Chesapeake Bay.

Winds should become sub-SCA for a time later tonight into Wednesday
morning, but another disturbance will approach the waters during the
day Wednesday. In response, winds shift to the WSW and increase to
around 15 kt. While a few 20-25 kt gusts are possible (particularly
on the coastal waters), will refrain from issuing and/or extending
headlines due to <30% probs for 25 kt wind gusts. SW winds then
increase further to 15-25 kt Wednesday night ahead of the next
cold front. Additionally, models depict a 35-45 kt LLJ
overspreading the region with decently steep low-level lapse
rates over the waters. This increases the confidence in meeting
SCA criteria with gusts up to 30 kt. The cold front then crosses
the waters Thursday morning with gusty NW winds in the CAA
regime. SCAs likely continue through most of Thursday before
diminishing in the evening and overnight. A weaker pressure
gradient favors lighter winds to end the week, likely continuing
into the weekend.

Seas will diminish from 3-5 ft this afternoon and evening to 2-
3 ft tonight and Wednesday. Waves on the Chesapeake Bay generally
average 1-2 ft, but likely will increase to 2-4 ft Wednesday night
into Thursday. While the offshore wind direction will prevent seas
from increasing too much, most guidance shows 3-5 ft during
this time, highest 10+ nm offshore.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633-
     638-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...AC/RMM
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...SW