Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

054
FXUS61 KAKQ 191131
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
631 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
06z Aviation discussion updated. Updated Discussion. Confidence
has increased with respect to the development of coastal low
pressure Sunday into Monday. However, confidence remains low
with regard to sensible weather impacts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A back door cold front drops south and southwestward across
the mid-Atlantic coast today. Developing onshore winds will
bring lower temperatures for much of the area, especially across
the VA/MD Lower Eastern Shore, and areas along the western
shore of the Chesapeake Bay through Hampton Roads.

2) Several disturbances bring the chance for periods of rain
back to the area through Saturday.

3) Stronger coastal low pressure potentially impacts the region
Sunday into early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 258 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A back door cold front drops south and
southwestward across the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. Developing
onshore winds will bring lower temperatures for much of the
area, especially across the VA/MD Lower Eastern Shore, and areas
along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay through Hampton
Roads.

Surface high pressure now well offshore of the SE coast east of
Bermuda early this morning. Aloft, vigorous upper troughs over
the Upper Midwest and Atlantic Canada has flattened the east
coast ridging a bit more, and is now quasi-zonal. High pressure
nudging south out of ON/QC into New England has begun to push a
nearly stationary frontal boundary over the northern mid-
Atlantic south as a cold front, and that front has begun to drop
south across the Delmarva coast in "backdoor" fashion.

Low clouds and the cool, damp maritime airmass behind that front
will continue to spill south and southwest across the Eastern
Shore early this morning, and much of the rest of the area
through the day. In so doing, the front will keep high
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s from central VA to the
Eastern Shore (coolest over the Eastern Shore), with upper
50s/lower 60s across southern/SE VA and coastal NE NC, and
milder low to mid 60s across interior NE NC, where they will
remain in the quasi- warm sector, but will nevertheless remain
mostly cloudy.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Several disturbances bring the chance for rain
back to the area tonight through Saturday.

The latest in a series of weak shortwaves riding upper level
flow from the southern plains/mid-south into the area is
bringing showers to south central and SE VA early this morning.
As that activity wanes later this morning, the aforementioned
backdoor cold front drops into the area, with overrunning/WAA
aloft allowing showers to re-develop, with widespread steady
light rain/drizzle developing across the area today into tonight.
Deeper moisture diminishes Thursday night. However, the low-
level cool airmass lingers as the backdoor boundary begins to
lift N as a warm front. This should result in persistent areas
of light rain and drizzle through early Friday morning. QPF
through 12z Friday is mainly 0.1-0.25" S of US-460 to 0.25-0.75"
N of US-460 and over to the Eastern Shore.

Another cold front aloft slides across the area Friday morning,
bringing another round of rainfall to the area, and should act
to scour out the low-level moisture by afternoon, with milder
temperatures arriving from SW-NE. However, this boundary stalls
across the Carolinas Friday night into Saturday with another
wave tracking along the boundary. This will bring yet another
round of rain to southern VA and NE NC. QPF after 18z Friday is
limited, generally 0.1-0.25", with total QPF 0.25-0.5" S to
0.5-0.75" N through 00z Sunday (7PM Saturday).

KEY MESSAGE 3...Stronger coastal low pressure potentially
impacts the region Sunday into early Monday.

By Sunday through early Monday, most model guidance continues
to depict a vigorous and amplifying upper level trough and
strengthening coastal low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast
impacting the region. Confidence in the storm developing is
high. However, there remains uncertainty in the finer details
(i.e. timing, track, and resultant sensible weather impacts).
In terms of track, there remains quite a bit of variability
model solutions. The deterministic runs of the 00z/19 ECMWF and
the UKMET remain flatter/farther south and offshore as the
coastal low exits the Coastal Carolinas. The GFS/CMC are more
amplified and closest to the coast, and therefore have the
greatest impacts to the region. Each of these solutions bring
substantially more precipitation back closer to the coast Sunday
night/early Monday, with enough phasing of northern and southern
stream that a deeper mean H5 trough develops over the eastern
CONUS, allowing cold air to be pulled into the system such that
precipitation ends as snow over central VA over to the VA
northern neck and Eastern Shore (The ECMWF/UKMET solutions,
being flatter, are slower to pull cold air in, and are therefore
less bullish on winter wx potential). The associated EC AIFS
now is more amplified and has more wintry potential than the
dynamical model.

Model ensemble (GEFS/EPS/GEPS) snow probabilities for >1" of
snow (at 10:1 SLR) have increased slightly from the previous
cycle, with the GEFS still showing the highest probabilities for
accumulating snowfall over the northeastern third of the area.
While this is still best characterized as a rather low-probability
(albeit higher impact) scenario, it is somewhat more feasible
given the trend toward a stronger upper low, which is modeled to
briefly close off this weekend over the interior Northeast.
Given the marginal thermal profiles (i.e. lack of cold air
in place antecedent to the event), the most likely scenario
remains additional rainfall and a period of gusty winds later
Sunday/Sunday night, and potentially strong winds along the
coast. That said, given the trends toward a more amplified
upper level system, this scenario of precipitation ending as
some light snow early Monday, particularly across the Delmarva
and peninsulas of eastern VA, and potentially back into central
VA should be watched over the coming days.

Also of note, models continue to show increased blocking in the
northern Atlantic, which indicates a chilly start to next week
before the Canadian surface high modifies into the latter half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Thursday...

A backdoor cold front has dropped across KSBY early this
morning, and will drop farther SW across remaining terminals
through the next few hours into midday. Winds become NE and
CIGs quickly drop to IFR behind the front. In addition, rain
becomes more widespread as the front drops into the area (lowest
PoPs farther SE at ECG, highest at RIC/PHF/SBY), with MVFR to
LCL IFR VSBY restrictions (lowest along coastal terminals).

Outlook: The boundary lifts back N as a warm front later this
evening/Thu night. LIFR conditions are possible with persistent
areas of light rain/drizzle lingering across the region. A
second front brings another chc of showers Friday morning, and
cigs should lift in the wake of this boundary by Friday aftn.
This front lingers S of the area Saturday, with rain chances
lingering across southern VA and NE NC (mainly at ORF, PHF, and
ECG). Stronger low pressure develops off the coast Sunday into
Monday and this has the potential to bring another period of
rain, gusty winds, and flight restrictions to the region Sunday
into early Monday. Precipitation could end as a rain/snow mix or
all snow at SBY and RIC.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 530 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A backdoor cold front drops southward today with winds turning
onshore behind the boundary.

- Patchy to Dense Fog is possible across the waters this
  morning and potentially lasting through Friday morning.

- A stronger system potentially impacts the waters Sunday into early
next week.

Early morning analysis shows high pressure far off the SE coast and
a backdoor cold front draped across the Eastern shore. The
pressure gradient ahead of the cold front remains week and
winds are around 10 kt out of the SW. Behind the front winds
have shifted out of the NE and are around 10 kt. Seas remain low
this morning with 3 to 4 ft seas across the coastal waters and
1 to 2 ft across the bay. Dense marine fog continues to push out
of the north reducing visibilities of less than 1 NM. A Marine
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through this afternoon for
the ocean zones north of the Capes as the fog continues to push
south. The Marine Dense Fog Advisory may need to be expanded
depending on how far south and west the fog pushes. Through the
rest of the morning and through today the front will continue
to push south and winds will begin to shift out of the NE or ENE
between 5-15 kt. Behind the front onshore flow is expected to
persist and could cause seas to rise between 4 to 5 ft across
the northern waters by late this evening . No SCA have been
issued at this time due to low confidence in the wave heights.
Sub-SCA winds are progged through Friday into Saturday as the
frontal boundary continues to linger across the area. Confidence
for hazardous marine conditions slowly increases for late this
weekend and into early next week. The 00z guidance still shows
potential for a strong coastal low to develop off the coast
Sunday into Monday. Potential for Gale conditions increase as
local winds probs have risen and show 50 to 70% of gusts >= 34
kt across all waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...HET