Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

061
FXUS61 KAKQ 192339
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
739 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another cold and dry night is expected. Steady moderating
trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions
continue late this week into next weekend outside of a minimal
chance of showers Friday night.

2) A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week
bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler temperatures.
Moderating temperatures return by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Another cold and dry night is expected. Steady
moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry
conditions continue late this week into next weekend outside of
a minimal chance of showers Friday night.

Afternoon weather analysis shows an upper level trough entered over
the region. At the surface, high pressure was centered off the
Delmarva coast. With high pressure remaining in control dry weather
conditions are prevailing under clear to mostly clear skies.
Temperatures as of 2pm are in the low to middle 50s inland and upper
40s along the eastern shore and coastline and ESE winds are
prevailing. Dry weather conditions prevail through tonight as the
high slides off the SE. Temperatures tonight are progged to drop
into the low to middle 30s as the winds will remain light and
radiational cooling occurs.

Tomorrow and through the weekend a strong upper level ride center`s
itself over the western United States then slowly moving over the
Central United States by this weekend. This will allow for a warming
trend to continue through the weekend. Highs Friday are progged to
be in the upper 60s to 70F, then upper 60s to mid 70s Saturday, with
the warmest day Sunday as highs are in the upper 70s to low 80s.
However, on Sunday the Eastern Shore may remain in the upper 60s
along the waters and low 70s inland as winds are coming off the
cooler waters.

There continues to remain no strong signal for organized rainfall
Friday and through the weekend. aside from a weak upper system that
brings a chance of showers Friday night. QPF is only a few
hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to
continue.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week
bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler temperatures.
Moderating temperatures return by the middle of next week.

The 12z ensemble guidance continues to show a weakening upper level
ridge by the start of early next week. This is due to a trough
digging from the Great Lakes region and across the Northeast. This
allows for a cold front to move out of the north and track across
the area Monday bringing a chance of showers. However, some of the
latest ensembles and their deterministic are showing less
precipitation associated with the frontal passage. Temperatures
Monday will be mild. After the frontal passage temperatures once
again cool before temperatures begin to moderate by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00z/20 forecast
period. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern
this evening. High pressure will gradually slide offshore later
tonight into tomorrow as a cold front approaches from the NW.
Mainly clear skies tonight outside of passing FEW to SCT high
clouds. Winds remain light and variable throughout tonight and
into early Friday AM. Winds become S-SW later Friday morning
into Friday afternoon, becoming gusty with occasional gusts of
20-25 knots possible. Cloud cover increases from the W,
especially after 21z, but VFR CIGs prevail.


Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail Friday night
through Tuesday. Light rain showers are possible Friday night
into early Saturday AM, but VIS restrictions are not
anticipated. High pressure returns Saturday AM throughout the
weekend, before another cold front crosses the area Monday. The
front will bring a low end chance for showers and the potential
for breezy conditions on Monday.


&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA through Friday, then potential for low-end SCAs Friday
  night.

- The next good chance of solid SCAs is early Monday-Tuesday following
  a cold frontal passage. There is a low-end potential for 35
  kt gusts during this time (mainly late Monday/Monday night).

High pressure is over the local waters this afternoon with variable
winds of 5-10 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft and waves in the bay are 1 ft or
less. These benign conditions will continue through tomorrow morning
as the LLVL flow veers to the S as the high gradually pushes
offshore. S winds remain around 10 kt Friday morning before
increasing to 15-20 kt by late Fri aftn/Fri evening ahead of an
approaching (weak) cold front. A 3-6 hour period of frequent 25 kt
gusts is possible on the northern coastal waters. Likewise, a period
of 20-25 kt gusts is possible on the bay (best chances north). Peak
winds likely occur between 6 PM-2 AM. There are high probs for 25 kt
gusts north of Cape Charles for a few hours (along with medium probs
for sustained 18 kt winds on the mid/upper bay). However, will hold
off on SCAs attm since it is a low-end SCA that`s slightly over 24
hours out, and our local wind probs have a tendency to overestimate
gusts in WAA regimes. Nevertheless, SCAs may very well be needed for
at least the northern bay/coastal waters depending on trends.
Lighter winds return Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Looking to
early next week, another round of SCAs is likely early Monday into
Tuesday with northerly flow behind a cold front. Details will of
course come into focus over the weekend, but for now thinking winds
will peak Monday night with gusts around 30 kt. There is at least a
low potential for occasional 35 kt gusts across the bay and
ocean.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...AJB/HET
MARINE...AC/ERI