Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

914
FXUS61 KAKQ 080700
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
300 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. Discussion section
updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and sunny today. Additional chances for scattered light
rain will be possible Saturday and later Sunday into Monday.

2) Seasonable temps Tuesday through Friday with another chance
of rain Wednesday/Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and sunny today. Additional chances for
scattered light rain will be possible Saturday and later Sunday into
Monday.

Sunny skies and moderately warm temperatures return today as high
pressure slides in overhead. Highs will be in the low 70s. Dry air
temporarily returns with dewpoints dropping into the 30s most
places. Luckily, the lack of wind and most places getting at least
some rain yesterday will prevent fire wx concerns. High pressure
quickly slides offshore Friday evening.

It will be warmer on Saturday with highs in the upper 70s as
southerly sfc flow returns on the backside of the high along with
southwest flow aloft. During the afternoon, the local area looks to
be sandwiched between two shortwaves in the mid levels. Weaker
energy between the two stronger disturbances may be enough to
trigger afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms, but they will
likely be confined to areas E of I-95 based on latest guidance.
Highest confidence in storms is on the MD Eastern Shore closer to a
warm front, but even there PoPs top out at 40%. These showers/storms
will likely only bring 0.1" or less. GEFS probs for 0.1" or more are
30-50% with highest probs in Eastern MD and NE NC.

Can`t rule out a few stray showers for Mother`s Day, but overall
looking at dry and warm conditions with highs in the 80s. Precip
chances then increase late Sunday evening into Monday as a cold
front passes through. QPF looks more favorable than Saturday`s
chances, although still not all that much. Both GEFS and Euro Ens
have high probs (80%+) for a widespread 0.1", but probs drop off
quickly with only ~30-50% for 0.5".

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temps Tuesday through Friday with
another chance of rain Wednesday/Wednesday night.

We will get another break from the rain on Tuesday and perhaps the
first half of Wednesday before another cold front passes through the
region. Based on the 00z suite of guidance, the UL trough supporting
the front does look fairly strong with an UL low perhaps dipping
into southern New England/northern Mid Atlantic. So far there
doesn`t seem to be much instability for the front to work with, but
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves given the
potential for stronger flow aloft to support severe weather. GEFS
only has a 10-20% prob for CAPE > 500 J/kg so confidence is quite
low, but there`s plenty of time for things to change. Otherwise,
expecting seasonable or slightly below normal temps Tuesday through
the end of the week with highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Friday...

Skies continue to gradually clear out in the wake of a cold
front with high pressure building in from the W. Most terminals
have gone FEW or SKC, but so higher level BKN is lingering at
ECG for the next few hours. Winds are light and variable. The
combo of the clearing skies, light winds, and the rain we got
yesterday is allowing for some patchy fog. So far, there hasn`t
been much vsby impact to the terminals, but did include 3-5sm
vsby for everywhere but ECG starting around 08-09z. Once the fog
clears out after sunrise, VFR conditions will prevail through
the remainder of the period. Winds will generally be light with
the exception of afternoon gusts at SBY.

Outlook: A quick moving system will bring a potential for a few
showers or storms Saturday, mainly along the coast. An area of
low pressure approaches the region Sunday into Monday, bringing
the potential for additional showers and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories ramp down this evening as conditions
  improve.

- Additional chances of meeting Small Craft Advisory criteria
  will return Friday with marginal conditions in the morning
  and again in the evening for the Chesapeake Bay.

The latest wx analysis shows the cold front has passed through the
local waters today. Showers will continue to linger through this
evening from the front. Winds are currently ENE ranging from 10-15
kt in the middle Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and coastal waters
north of Parramore Island to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the
lower Ches. Bay, lower James River, and southern coastal waters.
Waves are currently 1-3 ft with 3-5 ft seas. Small Craft Advisories
for the Ches. Bay, lower James River, and southern coastal waters
will expire this afternoon to tonight, as winds decrease behind the
front to 5-10 kt and become variable from high pressure over the
area, before shifting out of the NW by sunrise. 5 ft seas in the
southern coastal waters will also decrease by this evening.

Early Friday morning, a surge of dry air behind the front will
filter into the area. This may lead to brief marginal SCA conditions
across the Ches. Bay, but latest model guidance keeps winds NNE
winds just shy of meeting criteria. Local wind probs only have ~50%
chance of gusts to 18 kt in the Ches. Bay, so this surge is very
marginal. Winds will then shift out of the south during the day
Friday as high pressure moves offshore the local area. The position
of this high will allow for a LLJ to increase over the area creating
another surge in winds. Southerly winds will increase to 15-20 kt
with a few gusts to 25 kt possible. Local wind probs have a 70-90%
chance of seeing 18 kt gusts across the Ches. Bay, but only a 10% of
gusts to 25 kt across the coastal waters. If this trend continues,
SCAs may be needed for the Ches. Bay Friday evening into early
Saturday. Mostly benign marine conditions are expected Saturday and
Sunday. The next front is anticipated to cross the area Monday and
may result in additional headlines.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...KMC