Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

088
FXUS61 KAKQ 151044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
644 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled for the Chesapeake Bay
and Currituck Sound.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and
significantly lower humidity Today-Thursday. Temperatures warm back
above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the
region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 214 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and
significantly lower humidity Today-Thursday. Temperatures warm back
above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the
region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat.

Early morning weather analysis shows a strong upper level ridge over
the eastern half of the United States with its axis stretching into
far northern Canada. With ridge stretching into far northern Canada
this allows the 1026mb surface high to move over New England. The
high pressure is in optimal position to allow winds to decouple
inland and skies to remain clear across the area. The decoupled
winds and clear skies is allowing radiational cooling to occur and
let temperatures drop into the upper 50s and low 60s inland.
However, along the coast temperatures continue to remain in the low
70s as winds continue to blow off the warm waters. Through sunrise,
expect temps to drop into the low to middle 50s inland and upper 60s
along the coast. Through the day high pressure will continue to push
eastward eventually moving offshore. This will allow for a favorable
early fall like day across the area. Skies are likely to remain
mostly clear and temperatures will likely struggle to reach 80 in
some areas. Highs for the day are likely to be in the upper 70s to
low 80s inland and mid 70s along the coast. By tonight, temperatures
will be similar as the previous night with lows in the middle to
upper 50s inland and low 60s along the coast.

As the week progresses the high pressure off the New England coast
will eventually push SW into the Carolina coastal plain through
midweek. This will likely cause high temps to stay mostly in the low-
mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally
warmer at the immediate coast). However, dew points are forecasted
to remain very comfortable through at least Thursday. By the end of
the week the upper ridge is progged to expand E-NE to the TN Valley
and central Appalachians. This will likely lead to above average
temps to return to the forecast area  with highs in the upper 80s
and possibly lower 90s. In addition, rain chances look meager
through much of the week. The best days for rain chances look to be
Friday and Saturday as a frontal passage approaches the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 638 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue through the 12z taf period. Mostly clear
skies continue through the morning with the bulk of the clouds
remaining across the far SW. Winds are light and variable
inland. While along the coast winds continue to remain out of
the NE around 10kt. Throughout the day VFR conditions are
forecasted to prevail as high pressure dominated todays weather
pattern. Skies will remain mostly clear with winds continuing
to remain out of the NE between 5-10 kt before becoming light
and variable again tonight.

Outlook: Dry weather continues through Sat with generally VFR
conditions given high pressure over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 640 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the southern
  ocean zones.

- Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week,
  but winds may increase late Friday into Saturday as the next
  cold front drops south into the area.


An expansive area of high pressure is centered across Quebec and
the NE CONUS, slowly drifting east to New England, and forecast
to become centered off the New England coast and Atlantic Canada
later today into tonight. The pressure gradient continues to slowly
weaken, and winds have dropped to 10-15 kt for most of the
region. SCAs currently remain in effect for the ocean zones
south of Cape Charles for 4-5 ft seas, but have been cancelled
elsewhere. Seas will likely linger ~5 ft through day for the NC
ocean zones. This pattern often keeps seas off the NC coast
elevated longer than the models predict, so would not be surprised
to see an extension through tonight for NC waters (for now they
end at 7 PM). The sfc high is forecast to drift south and be
nearly overhead of the local waters Wed- Thu, with winds
shifting to the E-SE and dropping off to 5-10 kt. Seas are
expected to subside to 2-3 ft by Thursday, with sub- SCA
conditions continuing Friday. For the weekend, the models have
trended a bit stronger with the next frontal passage and another
sfc high building to our NE. This could lead to strong enough
onshore flow and possible SCAs but with high uncertainty at this
range.


A High Rip Current risk is in effect today for VA Beach and
Currituck NC given 5 ft nearshore seas (even with a fairly short
dominant period ~6sec), with a moderate risk for the northern
beaches. Seas are expected to gradually diminish later today
into Wed- for now a Moderate Rip Risk in effect for all beaches,
though if seas stay above 4 ft into Wed (possible across NC
waters), an upgrade to a High Risk may be needed as the E-NE
swell continues (shore normal for southern beaches) along with
the dominant period increasing to 7-8 seconds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/NB
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...LKB/RHR