Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

078
FXUS61 KAKQ 170537
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1237 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some snowfall remains possible Sunday, but the higher
probability for accumulating snowfall has shifted northeast,
with mainly rain expected for southeast Virginia and northeast
North Carolina with a few wet snowflakes possible as
precipitation ends. Otherwise, no significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Milder temperatures Saturday, especially southeast Virginia
and northeast North Carolina. There remains a chance for light
rain showers or a rain/snow mix early Saturday in the Piedmont.

2) Snow or a mix of rain and snow remains possible Sunday, with
mainly rain expected for southeast Virginia and northeast North
Carolina where a few wet snowflakes could mix in as
precipitation ends late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday
evening. The best chance for any (light) snowfall accumulation
has shifted northeast to the Northern Neck and lower Maryland
Eastern Shore.

3) Another surge of Arctic air arrives for early next week,
with below normal temperatures to continue through the first
half of next week. Tuesday is expected to be the coldest day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Surface high pressure is centered immediately
off the Southeast coast this afternoon beneath zonal flow aloft.
Temperatures remain below average (mid 30s to lower 40s) with a
WSW wind occasionally gusting to 15-20 mph. Temperatures should
fall quickly through the 30s this evening as the sky remains
mostly clear. Temperatures become steady overnight with
increasing clouds as a shortwave trough lifts NE through the
upper Ohio Valley. This system quickly lifts NE Saturday as a
vigorous upper trough digs into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A
few light showers are possible Saturday morning through midday,
mainly from the Piedmont N and NW of the RIC metro through the
MD Eastern Shore, and a brief rain/snow mix is possible early
Saturday morning across the Piedmont NW of the RIC metro early
Saturday morning. Any precip will be very light due to a dry
sub-cloud layer and no accumulation or impacts are expected from
any falling snow. Temperatures will hold in the upper 40s to
around 50F from the Piedmont to the MD Eastern Shore (near to
slightly above seasonal averages) while rising into the upper
50s and even lower 60s in far SE VA/NE NC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The upper trough pushes E Saturday night into
Sunday with low pressure developing off the Carolina coast and
tracking NE Sunday. Overall there is still a potential for snow
from the Piedmont across central VA to the Eastern Shore. The
latest trends are slightly warmer and wetter across far SE VA
and NE NC where only a few inconsequential wet snowflakes may
mix in at the end. Overall, this is not expected to be a large
or impactful snow event. The highest probs for >1" of snow
(based on a 10:1 ratio) have shifted NE and are primarily across
the Northern Neck and lower MD Eastern Shore. >1" snow probs
from the 16/12z EPS/GEFS are generally 30-50% for these
locations and 10-30% (or less than 10%) elsewhere. >3" probs are
largely negligible, with the exception of 10-20% over the
Eastern Shore, and the GEFS does have a small 20-30% contour
over the lower MD Eastern Shore. Surface temperatures will be
marginal (near to slightly above 32F) when snow is falling, and
vertical ascent in the DGZ is weak, which points to lighter/less
impactful snow with difficulty accumulating on anything other
the grass or un- paved surfaces. The current official forecast
is for 1.0-1.5" of snow over the Eastern Shore, with a few
tenths to less than 1" for the Piedmont and central VA, and no
accumulation expected for far SE VA and NE NC. A reasonable
worst case scenario would be 2-3" for the MD Eastern Shore, and
1-2" back through the Northern Neck and central VA. Colder and
drier air arrives from NW-SE later Sunday afternoon and evening
bringing a rapid end to and snow or rain/snow mix.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Another surge of Arctic air arrives for early
next week behind a secondary dry cold front, with below averages
temperatures to continue through the first half of next week.

Arctic air arrives Monday night behind the secondary cold
front. Frigid temperatures are expected for at least the first
half of next week, with the coldest air occurring Monday night,
Tuesday, and into early Wednesday morning. EPS/GEFS show 2m
temperature anomalies 15F to nearly 20F degrees below average.
Overnight lows in the upper teens to mid 20s are expected Sunday
night, and primarily teens Monday/Tuesday night. Cold Weather
Advisories are possible Mon night given forecast wind chills in
the single digits across the N and W. While day-time temps will
be rather chilly each day Monday through Wednesday, Tuesday is
forecast to be the coldest day with highs struggling to make it
above freezing.

Temperatures may attempt to moderate a bit by the middle and
end of the week as the upper flow turns more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1235 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF
period. Through the rest of the early morning hours, expect LLWS
at RIC, SBY, and PHF as a low-level jet passes overhead. This
threat should diminish after 14z. Otherwise, winds should avg
S/SSW ~10 kt this morning. Clouds increase in coverage from W
to E through this afternoon with a mixture of stratus and
cirrus. Light rain or a rain/snow mix (PoPs 40% or less) is also
possible early this morning in the Piedmont, but should remain
NW of all terminals. Intermittent MVFR CIGs are also possible in
these showers, but coverage is too low for any prevailing
groups. Winds become SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt this
afternoon, diminishing this evening into tonight.

Outlook: More widespread flight restrictions are anticipated by
Sunday as rain, and likely some snow as well, overspreads the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 205 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake
  Bay, lower James River, and northern coastal waters from this
  evening into Saturday morning.

Afternoon analysis shows occluded low pressure near Lake
Superior with a cold front extending well south into the Ohio
Valley and Mid- South. Surface high pressure near the Southeast
coast is translating offshore this afternoon. Winds have become
SW and decreased to 10-15 kt today. Waves and seas have followed
suit and are mainly 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively. The
pressure gradient tightens again early this evening and
overnight as the front moves closer to the area. SCA headlines
have been raised for the bay, lower James, and the coastal
waters N of Cape Charles Light. SW winds increase to 15-20 kt
with gusts 25-30 kt this evening. Guidance is somewhat lower for
the lower James but given the favorable SW wind direction,
opted to include this zone as well. Waves build to 2-3 ft in the
bay with seas increasing to 3-5 ft (locally ~6 ft possible out
at 20 nm off the MD Eastern Shore). The gradient slackens toward
sunrise but have maintained the SCA headlines into mid morning
for the coastal waters N of Parramore Island to account for
lingering 4-5 ft seas. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to
persist through Sunday and the daylight hours of Monday before
another cold front crosses the waters and brings the potential
for SCA conditions back to the area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/SW
AVIATION...RMM/SW
MARINE...RHR