Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

888
FXUS61 KAKQ 181025
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
625 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Heat Advisory has been issued for today. Small Craft
Advisories have also been issued for the waters today.

Updated 12Z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Improving air quality is expected today. Additionally, a Heat
Advisory has been issued along and east of I-95 today for
elevated heat and humidity levels.

2) Storm chances return starting this weekend, bringing the
potential for strong, damaging winds and locally heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Improving air quality is expected today.
Additionally, a Heat Advisory has been issued along and east of
I-95 today for elevated heat and humidity levels.

The Canadian wildfire smoke that brought very unhealthy air quality
to the area on Friday continues to linger early this morning. The
good news is that a warm front will lift northward across the state
through the morning hours turning winds more south/southwesterly. As
this happens, the thick surface-based smoke will finally be ushered
out from south to north. We may not completely lose all of the
haziness in the sky, but guidance shows that the smoke sitting along
the surface will be scoured out by mid-day/early afternoon. No
Air Quality Alert is currently expected for today due to these
improving conditions.

This warm front will also help create continued hot and humid
conditions today. If the smoke does dissipate as expected, high
temperatures will be able to reach 95-97 degrees for most of
the area (aside from coastal locations). This in combination
with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will create dangerous
heat indices upwards of 105-108 degrees for the eastern half of
the CWA. Thus, a Heat Advisory has been issued along and east
of I-95, including central and Tidewater Virginia, northeast
North Carolina, and Dorchester County, MD from 11am to 8pm
today. The western Piedmont and Eastern Shore will still be hot
and humid, but just slightly under Advisory criteria. Please
take precautions if you must be outside. Drink water even when
you`re not thirsty and take frequent breaks in the shade/AC if
you can. Please be sure your pets have water and shade as well.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Storm chances return this weekend, bringing the
potential for strong, damaging winds and locally heavy rain.

Rain chances make a return to the area today thanks to the upper
ridge breaking down off the Southeast coast and troughing moving
into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. South-southwesterly winds will
increase later this morning as the warm front lifts northwards and
lee troughing develops. Wind gusts up to 15-20mph will be
likely throughout the day. A shortwave will drop down into the
region this afternoon providing forcing for the development of
thunderstorms. Given the NW flow aloft and the unstable
environment with decent deep layer shear, some organized line
segments are possible. SPC has maintained the Slight Risk (level
2 out of 5) of severe weather for most of our area, except in
NC along the Albemarle Sound, with the main threat being
strong, damaging winds. Hi-res guidance shows the best storm
chances being after 4-6pm. Confidence still isn`t great on
exact coverage of storms, but the higher chance for those
damaging winds will be across the north where the better shear
is forecast. With that being said, SPC has brought an Enhanced
Risk (level 3 out of 5) down to Salisbury, MD, including
Dorchester County. WPC also has northern locations in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall, meaning storms could produce heavy
downpours that create localized flooding.

A cold front will drop down into our area on Sunday keeping the
chance for afternoon storms around. Shear doesn`t look quite as
strong, but the environment is still well-primed for potentially
severe storms. Damaging winds will be the main threat once again.
SPC has a Slight Risk of severe weather along and south of US-460 on
Sunday, with a Marginal Risk up to the Middle Peninsula over to
Goochland County. Heavy rainfall will be a threat in any
thunderstorm on Sunday as well. While high temperatures won`t
be quite as hot, topping out around 90 degrees inland, the
humidity will still be rather oppressive out there. Heat
indices will be around 100 degrees, though possibly just over
100 across SE VA and NE NC.

The aforementioned cold front looks to linger just to our south on
Monday keeping rain/storm chances going, and increased cloud cover
leading to high temperatures in the upper 80s. Don`t break out your
jacket just yet though because dewpoints will remain in the 70s
making for continued humid conditions. A low pressure system
will move north of the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
sending another cold front our way. Will have to keep an eye on
the storm threat heading into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 AM EDT Saturday...

A mix of smoke and fog continues to linger at most terminals
early this morning, with RIC and PHF staying within IFR VIS
restrictions. Other terminals are generally around 4SM/MVFR.
Expecting the smoke to gradually dissipate and lift out of the
area from south to north after ~12-16Z leading to improved VIS.
SCT-BKN250 skies and light SE winds this morning will become
S/SW after 15Z and increase to 10-14KT with gusts to 20-24KT
through the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances return this
afternoon/evening, though coverage is still questionable.
Confidence in TSRA is slightly higher at SBY after 21Z, so
included a PROB30 through 19/01Z. Gusty, erratic winds and VIS
reductions due to +RA will be possible in these TSRA. SW winds
will subside overnight, except for some lingering gustiness
along the coast.

Outlook: Showers/storms are expected to redevelop again Sunday,
with additional flight restrictions possible. Rain chances
continue into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 AM EDT Saturday...

- Benign marine conditions this morning with increasing
  southwest winds later this afternoon and tonight.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected with
  south/southwest winds later this afternoon, overnight and into
  Sunday morning ahead of another front.

- Moderate risk of rip currents across the northern beaches on
  today and possibly Sunday.

Generally light southeast to south winds this morning will
persist until around noon with winds this morning generally 10
to 15 kt or less. SW winds increase later this afternoon and
especially this evening ahead of a cold front. Still expecting
15 to 25 kt winds across the waters ahead of this front late
today and overnight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for
the Bay, coastal waters, lower James River and Currituck Sound
for the gusty southwest winds later this afternoon and evening.
In addition, waves should build to 3 to 5 feet across the waters
by tonight. A band of showers and storms is possible this
evening and into tonight resulting in locally higher winds.

The front will gradually move south of the area during the day on
Sunday allowing winds to turn N then NE-E and weaken. The front
looks to be weak with no strong surge behind the front. Another
period of showers and storms is expected Sunday mainly over the
lower portions of the Bay and Coastal waters from Chincoteague
south into NC. Some of these storms Sunday afternoon could have
strong gusty winds. Otherwise fairly quiet marine conditions
are expected Sunday through Tuesday, before S-SW winds possibly
increase to small craft advisory levels on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front.

Increasing winds and seas will result in a moderate rip risk
for the northern beaches on Saturday. Lingering swells may also
require a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches on Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ021.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ064-075>090-092-097-098-511>525-528>531.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ630-631-633-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight
     for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JKP/RHR
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...MRD/JAO