Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

072
FXUS61 KAKQ 210945
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
545 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been issued starting this evening,
with Gale Watches being issued for Tuesday evening through
Thursday.

Lowered high temperatures a little Wednesday as cold air damming
sets up across the area. Also removed the chance of thunder for
Wednesday as the environment will be too stable, with the exception
of the NC coast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chance for showers and storms today and Tuesday as a slow-moving
front moves in and lingers across the area.

2) Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will
create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the
week.

3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding
(inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the
Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds.
Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles
(potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent
northeast winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for showers and storms today and Tuesday as a
slow-moving front moves in and lingers across the area.

Early morning surface analysis shows a broad area of high pressure
set up over Ontario, Canada extending outwards into New England and
portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A cold front is currently draped
across the northern VA border as of this writing and is progged to
slowly push southward across our area through the day today. It will
likely take most of the day to reach NC, which will impact both
our temperature and precipitation forecast for today. First of
all, let`s note that winds will become NNE as the front passes
through. Additionally, low cloud cover will also develop along
and behind the front, and will likely linger into tomorrow.
There could also be some patchy ground fog this morning ahead of
the front. The front will create quite a temperature gradient
across the CWA today, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees for ~Ashland and north. To the south, highs
will be able to jump into the upper 80s. Our furthest south
points in NE NC will likely hit 90 degrees today.

The precipitation forecast is a bit tricky today due to the timing
and placement of the front, but the better chances for showers and
storms will be along and south of the front where some somewhat
decent instability will exist - so roughly US-460 and south. SPC has
a Marginal Risk of severe weather along and west of I-95, with the
main threat still being damaging winds. Hi-res guidance has trended
the timing of any storms a bit later to late this evening,
especially closer to the VA/NC border. Models are then in decent
agreement of rain chances becoming more widespread overnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s for most everyone. On
Tuesday, the Canadian high pressure shifts a bit eastward, serving
as a reinforcement of our onshore flow. Northeast winds will begin
to pick up along the Eastern Shore Tuesday morning, then spreading
to all coastal locations through the day. Widespread (coastal)
gusts to 25mph will be likely, with gusts increasing to
35-45mph along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore
(including Ocean City, Chincoteague, etc) Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The lingering front will keep rain chances going on
Tuesday for most of the area. Could get some isolated storms as
well that create locally heavy downpours and instances of flash
flooding. The cooler airmass will make its presence known
starting Tuesday night as lows will be in the upper 50s across
the northwest, with low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along
the SE and coastal areas.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal
low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of
the week.

Cold air damming will overtake the area on Wednesday as high
pressure remains parked to our north. This will keep high
temperatures in the low to mid 60s for the northern and western
inland areas, with low to mid 70s for the SE half of the CWA.
Winds for coastal areas will persistently be blowing around
20-25mph with gusts to 35+mph. The strongest winds will once
again be along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore with
gusts to 40-45mph likely Tuesday night, potentially lasting all
the way through Friday/Saturday as the low pressure remains
offshore. Rain chances continue everywhere on Wednesday, though
due to the stable cooler environment, storms aren`t expected,
with the exception of the NC coast. There could once again be
areas of locally higher rainfall at times that lead to flash
flooding. WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for a
majority of the area on Wednesday. Rain chances may focus more
across the eastern portions of the area later Thursday into
Friday. A secondary surface low may form and cause the main low
to recenter itself slightly closer to the Mid-Atlantic/New
England coast late Thursday into Friday. Highs will remain in
the mid to upper 60s with 70s closer to the coast both day. If
winds are able to shift more out of the north around the west
side of the low pressure, our low temperatures Thursday and
Friday night could dip into the mid 50s, with the potential for
lower 50s inland.

Into the weekend and beyond, models are showing that this low may
continue to hang around to our northeast. As of right now, it
may be just far enough from our area that we could get a break
in the rainy conditions for the weekend, but that definitely
could change as the details of the low`s placement come to
light. The 00Z GFS run even has the stubborn coastal low
meandering back down south to the VA/NC line to start the new
work week. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast updates
as this system will create a prolonged period of gusty onshore
winds, coastal flooding, high surf, beach erosion, and dangerous
marine conditions (see below).


KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding
(inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the
Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds.
Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles
(potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent
northeast winds.

Strong northeast winds are expected from Tuesday night through at
least Thursday, which will cause water levels to rise across much of
the area (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic
coast). No worse than nuisance-minor tidal flooding is expected
through Tuesday evening. A significant rise in tidal anomalies is
forecast on Wednesday. Minor tidal flooding is likely (locally
moderate) as early as the Wednesday morning high tide cycle, with
widespread moderate to locally major flooding forecast during the
Wednesday evening high tide. This corresponds to inundation of 2-3
ft AGL in vulnerable areas. Specifics will become more clear as we
get closer. The highest water levels will likely occur along the
south/west side of the Ches Bay, tidal York/James, and Atlantic
coast. It is a bit too early for Coastal Flood Watches, as the onset
of the worst tidal flooding is around 60 hours out, but they will
eventually be needed for a decent portion of the area. Tidal
flooding likely persists through several tide cycles as NE winds
remain elevated.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM EDT Monday...

Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions out there this morning as a cold
front is making its way into the area from the north. As it
progresses southward, MVFR CIGs will spread to the rest of the
terminals, with BKN-OVC skies persisting for most of the TAF
period. Still have the potential for IFR CIGs at SBY for a few
hours this morning, so kept the TEMPO group in through 15Z.
Winds will shift from the SW to the N/NE over the next few hours
with speeds becoming 8-10kt. There is a chance for scattered
SHRA/TSRA late this afternoon/evening, but confidence is low
since guidance is pushing timing back a bit. SHRA may become
more widespread overnight with potential impacts to the
terminals. IFR CIGs may also be possible late this evening.

Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to persist through
most of the upcoming week, with at least intermittent degraded
flight conditions likely. Coastal terminals will also have
elevated northeasterly winds for an extended period.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A brief east to northeasterly surge is expected late this
afternoon-this evening behind a cold front. Winds will increase to
15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the northern marine area, with
gusts to 20 kt likely south to the VA-NC border. Ramp up SCAs have
been issued for the ocean north of Parramore Island.

- SCA level winds are forecast beginning Tuesday morning. Confidence
in a period of gales with NE winds is very high from Tuesday night-
Thursday, and Gale Watches have been issued for the bay, ocean north
of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River.

- The strongest winds will likely occur from Wednesday-Thursday. A
~6 hour period of sustained gale force winds (with gusts to 45 kt)
is possible during this time. Seas build to 10-14+ feet, likely
leading to dangerous marine conditions.

A cold front is approaching from the north early this morning, with
high pressure well off the SE coast. Winds are SW at 10-15 kt with
~3 ft seas. All attention remains on a significant pattern change
this week, which is expected to bring strong northeast winds, 10-14
ft+ seas, and overall dangerous marine conditions. Forecast
confidence remains fairly high.

The cold front just to our north will cross most of the waters later
today, though the initial CAA/wind behind the front won`t be that
strong. But, NE winds increase to 15-20 kt north/15 kt south by late
aftn/early evening, which will cause seas to build to 4-5+ ft north
of Parramore Island. Therefore, have gone ahead and issued a ramp up
SCA for the northern two ocean zones starting at 6 PM today.
Conditions could briefly approach SCA criteria across the Ches Bay
late this aftn/this evening. However, the duration is short and
local wind probs for 18+ kt winds are 20-35% for a few hrs. Will
continue to monitor but will hold off on ramp up SCAs at this time.
The front will likely stall for a bit tonight into the first part of
Tuesday before advancing south across the entire marine area Tuesday
into early Tuesday evening. Winds may decrease by a few knots
tonight, but NE winds are progged to increase to 20-25 kt south/25-
30 kt north by Tuesday evening as stronger CAA ensues. A few gale
force gusts are possible north of Parramore Island as early as late
Tue aftn.

An impressive 1040mb high will build across eastern Canada by the
middle of the week as low pressure deepens a couple hundred miles
offshore of the VA/NC coast. This will help strengthen the CAA and
tighten the pressure gradient over the local waters. The strongest
winds are still expected to occur on Wednesday-Thursday as the
strong high remains anchored over southern Quebec and the offshore
low continues to gradually deepen. The global models are now in very
good agreement with respect to timing, and confidence in frequent
gale force gusts is very high with local wind probs showing nearly a
100% chc of 34+ kt wind gusts from Wed through a good part of Thu.
Have issued Gale Watches for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC
border, and Lower James River starting Tuesday evening/Tuesday night
and continuing through Thursday (for now). While there are model
differences in the strength of the 925-850mb wind field, prevailing
winds around 30 kt with gusts of ~40 kt are likely over the ocean
and lower bay from early Wed-Thu (with slightly lower winds on the
upper bay and Lower James). Some of the models show 925mb winds
increasing to ~45 kt for a short time as the strongest CAA arrives
late Wed/early Thu. With the unstable marine boundary layer and
water temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should
be able to mix down to the sfc. This could lead to a 6 hour period
of sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt. Confidence in
this scenario has increased since yesterday and have a mention of
gusts as high as 45 kt in the MWW/CWF. Given the prolonged strong NE
winds, seas are forecast to build to 10-14+ ft. This will likely
lead to dangerous marine conditions from late Tuesday night through
at least Thursday. Low-end gale force gusts could certainly continue
through the end of the work week (with solid SCA winds next weekend)
as the low potentially lingers offshore, with the wind trending to
northerly later in the week and potentially NNW by later next
weekend.

There is a moderate rip current risk forecast for all beaches today
from onshore flow. Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by
Tuesday and will continue through the weekend with the prolonged
onshore flow. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible from mid to
late week as well. High Surf Advisories will eventually be needed
for all of the beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon
     for ANZ630>632-634.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ650-652.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon for
     ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684.
     Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon
     for ANZ656-686.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/JKP
AVIATION...JKP/SW
MARINE...ERI