Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS61 KAKQ 101712
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
112 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion. A Marginal Risk for severe storms has been
introduced for areas north of the VA-NC border on Wednesday.
Confidence in storm formation Wednesday afternoon/evening is
still low, but has increased slightly from yesterday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Record or near record warmth is expected today and
Wednesday. There is a low chance for strong to severe storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-64.

2) A stronger cold front crosses the area Thursday
morning-midday, bringing the next chance for precipitation, along
with a low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first
part of Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather returns to end
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Record or near record warmth is expected today and
Wednesday. There is a low chance for strong to severe storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-64.

Record or near record warm weather continues through Wednesday, as
surface high pressure lingers over the western Atlantic, and upper
level riding builds over the Gulf coast. With building upper
heights, it will be mostly sunny and dry today with highs in the
upper 70s-lower 80s. Expect temps to be a few degrees cooler on the
eastern shore. Wednesday will be even warmer with mid 80s expected
inland. Record high temps could be in reach for all of our climate
sites both today and Wednesday. See the Climate section below for
more information. Overnight lows will also be similarly mild. Mainly
dry both days, though an approaching upper trough/cold front will
keep upper heights from rising much on Wednesday. While the best
height falls/dynamics from the approaching system remain to our
north and west on Wednesday, the warm temps and lower-mid 60s dew
pts will allow for 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop by the
afternoon with a moderate amount of deep-layer shear (mainly speed
shear). Again, the highest precip coverage will be to our north and
west on Wednesday with a 20-30% chc of precip at most (which would
be tstms or nothing). However, given the above environmental
parameters, a severe storm or two is possible if convection ends up
developing in our area, with the main threats being damaging wind
and large hail. Some of the CAMs show this happening while a lot of
them have no precip. While confidence in convective initiation is
low, the setup Wed aftn/evening certainly is worth watching. The
best chc of a stronger storm would be north of I-64. SPC has
expanded the MRGL (Level 1/5) Risk to include all areas north of the
VA-NC border on Wednesday to account for this threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front crosses the area Thursday
morning-midday, bringing the next chance for precipitation, along
with a low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first
part of Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather returns to end
the week.

A dampening upper low currently nearing the SW CONUS is still
expected to lift across the Gulf coast Wednesday before reaching the
Carolina coast Thursday. Meanwhile, a rather potent, dynamic
northern stream upper trough lifts across the upper midwest into the
interior northeast and SE Canada. Deepening low pressure will track
from the Great Lakes to Quebec from Wednesday through Thursday
morning. This sub-990mb northern stream low is progged to drag a
cold front through the area Thursday morning-midday (most likely
between 7 AM and 1 PM). Most of the precipitation will occur behind
the front (with the best precip chances from late morning-early
evening) as that southern stream system tracks just to our south.
Temps will not drop much below 70F prior to the FROPA Thu AM as
winds veer from the S to SW.

Temps likely warm a few degrees across SE VA/NE NC Thu AM prior to
the FROPA. With warm temps and upper 50s-lower 60s dew pts (highest
SE), a modest amount of destabilization is possible ahead of the
front (mainly in areas that see a couple hours of daytime heating).
Combined with the strong low-level wind fields and the potential for
a narrow convective line of low-topped gusty showers, cannot rule
out a few strong to potentially severe (50 kt) wind gusts on
Thursday with that line. However, confidence in any severe wx is
still not very high and we may not see any severe wx at all.
Regardless of any convection, temps likely drop from ~70F to the mid
40s-50s very quickly following the FROPA, with a few hours worth of
30-35 mph gusts likely across much of the area as winds become NW.
If severe wx occurs, damaging winds will be the main threat due to
straight line hodographs, a linear convective mode, and strong LLVL
wind fields. The severe hail threat is essentially zero with an
extremely low tornado threat as well.

Sharp pressure rises then overspread the region post-FROPA Thursday
with temps continuing to fall the rest of the day and through the
evening as seasonably strong CAA ensues. Thus, the high temperatures
shown in the forecast are likely to be achieved early in the day,
with those falling temps as the day proceeds. Precip should end well
before any changeover to snow could potentially occur.

Looking ahead, dry and seasonably cooler wx returns Friday, with
cooler highs dropping back toward seasonal norms into the upper 50s
to low 50s despite plentiful sunshine. Milder conditions with temps
approaching 70 F are forecasted by the weekend as transient high
pressure slides over, also supporting continued mainly dry wx.
Another low pressure system and cold front brings a good chance of
showers (with perhaps an isolated tstm) to the area on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals with clear skies and
winds between 5 to 10 kt out of the SSW. Late tonight, winds
will lighten and become variable. VFR conditions will prevail
across all terminals tonight. However, some model guidance has
hinted on patchy ground fog across ECG early in the morning that
could bring brief MVFR Vis. There is high enough confidence in
the patchy fog as moisture will be advancing northward.
Therefore, a TEMPO has been added to ECG TAF for the brief
reduction in VIS.


Outlook: Prevailing VFR tonight through much of Wednesday,
outside of potential brief restrictions in fog/stratus early
Wednesday morning. There is a low chc of tstms at SBY Wednesday
evening, with the other terminals most likely remaining dry
until Thursday AM. A strong cold front approaches Wednesday
night into Thursday, which is expected to bring showers and a
few tstms, along with periodic flight restrictions. VFR
conditions return Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected to persist through
  Wednesday morning.

- A strong cold front approaches the region late Wednesday and crosses
  the waters early Thursday. Solid SCA conditions are likely
  both ahead of and behind the frontal passage.

Early morning analysis shows high pressure centered well offshore
and low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies over eastern
CO. Winds locally are S or SW 5-10 kt with waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3
ft. Fog has mostly cleared up over the area waters but guidance
continues to insist that reduced visibilities are likely this
morning. Will reevaluate the ongoing Marine Dense Fog Advisory that
is in effect through mid morning for the coastal waters north of
Cape Charles. Observations and beach cameras show marked improvement
over the last few hours but satellite imagery is showing some hints
at redevelopment in the advisory area.

The low that is currently deepening over the central CONUS will
translate eastward today into Wednesday with the pressure gradient
gradually tightening by the late Wednesday afternoon into the
evening. SCA conditions appear increasingly likely Wednesday night
in strengthening S/SSW flow. Cool near-shore waters will limit
mixing but the synoptic gradient will be quite strong. The front is
progged to cross the waters after sunrise Thursday with winds
becoming W then NW behind the boundary. With rapid pressure rises, a
period of stronger winds will likely follow just behind the front.
Gusts may exceed 30 kt during this period. The gradient begins to
relax Thursday afternoon and especially during the evening and
overnight hours. Seas will build to 4-6 ft N and 3-5 ft S in the pre-
frontal SW flow but should fall off quickly Thursday afternoon as
flow turns offshore. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will increase to 2-
4 ft ahead of the front and maintain 3-4 ft through most of Thursday
during the stronger NW winds. Another system moves by well to the
north on Friday with potential for another period of SCA
conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...


Record High Temps for 3/10 - 3/11

                 Record     Record
                High/Year  High/Year
Location          3/10       3/11
--------          ----      -----
Richmond        81 (2006)  82 (1990)
Norfolk         81 (2016)  82 (1990)
Salisbury       77 (2016)  76 (2000)
Eliz. City      82 (2016)  81 (2016)

Record High Min Temps for 3/10 - 3/11

                 Record     Record
                  High       High
                Min T/Year Min T/Year
Location          3/10       3/11
--------          ----      -----
Richmond        63 (2006)  56 (1955)
Norfolk         62 (2016)  82 (1925)
Salisbury       60 (1909)  51 (1955)
Eliz. City      57 (2016)  58 (1967)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/HET
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...ERI/MAM