Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

057
FXUS61 KAKQ 150954
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
454 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures have been lowered slightly for this
afternoon/tonight.

Gale Watch was converted to a Gale Warning north of Parramore
Island, and converted to a Small Craft Advisory farther south.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front crosses the area this morning. W to NW
winds become gusty today into this evening in the wake of the
front, gusting to 30 to 35 mph.

2) Colder but mainly dry through Friday. Wind chill values in
the teens are forecast late tonight. There is a low-end chance
for some light precipitation on Saturday, mainly across the VA
piedmont.

3) Low pressure develops off the Southeast coast over the
weekend, with the potential for wintry precip across portions of
the area on Sunday. Uncertainty remains very high regarding
specific impacts.

4) Another surge of Arctic air arrives for early next week,
with below normal temperatures to continue through the first
half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 455 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front crosses the area early this
morning. W to NW winds become gusty today into tonight in the wake
of the front, with increasingly efficient mixing in CAA allowing
winds to gust to 30 to 35 mph. Winds diminishing late tonight
into early Friday, as cold high pressure builds to the SSW.

Yet another shortwave embedded within the potent northern
stream trough is lifting through the mid-Atlantic region this
morning. This system and its attendant strong surface cold front
will be lifting across the local area in the next 2-3 hours.
Winds remain SSW along the coast, but have veered around to the
W-NW along and west of I-95 portion of the area as of this
writing. Temps remain nearly steady until the front crosses
into the area. Thereafter, strong CAA post-frontal drives temps
down into the upper 30s/lower 40s, with highs likely to be
achieved this morning over much of the area. Dewpoints also drop
quite a bit behind the front, likely reaching the single digits
inland during peak mixing.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Colder but mainly dry through Friday. Wind
chill values in the teens are forecast late tonight. There is
a low-end chance for some light precipitation on Saturday,
mainly across the VA piedmont.

Given diminishing winds, clear sky and the cold, dry airmass
building into the region, went a bit below NBM for lows. Look
for lows tonight in the upper teens to lower 20s inland, low to
mid 20s along the coast. Wind chill values are expected to drop
into the mid teens late tonight. While this is near but just
above Cold Weather Advisory thresholds, it`s certainly noteworthy
given the recent mild temperatures.

High pressure moves offshore on Friday, but temperatures remain on
the chilly side in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Not quite as cold on
Saturday ahead of the next Arctic front, with highs ranging
from the mid 40s NW to the upper 50s SE. There is a slight
chance for some rain showers (some light snow mixing in across
the NW half of the area) but moisture is limited as the
shortwave is dampening as it crosses the southern Appalachians
Sat morning. Turning cold once again Saturday night with lows in
the mid 20s to low 30s.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure develops off the Southeast coast
over the weekend, with the potential for wintry precip across
portions of the area on Sunday. Uncertainty remains very high
regarding specific impacts.

Attention then turns to Sunday, as a deep trough digs south
from the mid-south toward the central Gulf Coast. Surface low
pressure forms off the SE coast Sunday morning and lifts NE.
00z/15 guidance has mainly continued the trend of the past few
cycles, favoring a stronger surface low closer to the coast,
along with a slower/less progressive upper pattern. The 00z GFS
and its ensembles remain the slowest with the shortwave, which
results in it being most bullish/aggressive with snow totals, as
the system takes a neg tilt earlier, allowing for more plentiful
snow totals. 00z GEFS probabilities have accordingly increased
to 50-80+% for impactful/accumulating snowfall AOA 1" across
most of our area (except immediate NE NC coast), highest across
inland sections, but its 3+" probs are still low. The ECMWF and
EPS are not quite as slow as the GFS, but is farther east with
the vorticity max at present, and hence farther offshore with
the low and more suppressed with snows. Specifically, EPS 00z
snow probs for 1" are lower than GEFS (40-60%+) but have also
trended a bit farther east/offshore and are accordingly focused
across the Hampton Roads area into NE NC. The chance for at
least 3" is still quite low...only about 20%...but is again
focused primarily over Hampton Roads and the eastern Carolinas,
with little or no snow inland. Much of the remainder of the
guidance is more progressive, with precip focused mainly along
the coast and offshore.

Given the large model spread, it`s still just too early to make
any definitive specifics, let alone throwing out snow totals.
There are many moving parts to this portion of the forecast,
including but not limited to the evolution and orientation of
the upper system, the exact track/trend of the attendant surface
low, and the presence or absence of an upstream shortwave that,
if present, could quicken the upper pattern and shorten the
window for potential snows. In short, users are encouraged to
stay up to date with the latest forecasts over the coming day or
two, as the specifics of each of these elements are likely to
become more evident.


KEY MESSAGE 4...Another surge of Arctic air arrives for early
next week, with below normal temperatures to persist through the
first half of next week.

Regardless of the exact evolution of the weekend system, another
reinforcing shot of Arctic air arrives on its heels Monday into
Monday afternoon, sending another surge of cold Arctic air back
into the region. Below normal temperatures are expected to linger
through the middle of next week, with lows in the teens and 20s
and highs in the 30s, or ~1 to 1.5 standard deviations below
normal for mid-January.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 445 AM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z TAF
period. A strong cold front will push offshore by sunrise, with
clouds to clear from W to E, becoming mainly clear by mid-morning
through the rest of the period. Winds veer around to the W then
WNW 10-15 kt along the coast with gusts 20-25 kt behind a
strong cold front later this morning, continuing through this
afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Fri with some potential
for MVFR CIGs on Sat. Cannot rule out a few rain or snow
showers Sat morning, mainly across the Piedmont. Another system
approaches the region Saturday night and potentially impacts
the region on Sunday with snow or a rain/snow mix and flight
restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect through
Friday morning as winds become westerly behind a strong cold front
today.

- Elevated SW winds and likely SCA conditions return Friday night
into Saturday morning.

- Low water conditions remain possible in the lower Chesapeake Bay,
York/James Rivers, and along the coast of the Atlantic waters
during low tide Friday night into Saturday.

A strong cold front is approaching the waters this morning. As of 2
AM, winds remain SW 10-20 kt. However, the wind direction will
abruptly shift to the W over the next few hours as the front pushes
through. Wind speeds increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt
through most of today. While sporadic higher gusts are possible
along the immediate frontal passage this morning, prevailing winds
remain sub-Gale for all waters through the evening. Stronger cold
advection arrives tonight and very efficient mixing will likely lead
to a period of frequent ~35 kt gusts on the northern coastal waters.
Elsewhere, wind gusts should stay closer to 30 kt, but cannot rule
out occasional 35 kt gusts (best chance for this would be in the
Chesapeake Bay N of Windmill Pt). Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect for all waters through Friday morning, with Gale Warnings now
in effect from 00z-12z Fri (7 PM today-7 AM Fri) for the ocean N of
Parramore Island. The lull in the winds looks brief Friday as high
pressure quickly offshore and a low pressure system moves through
the Great Lakes. This will allow for winds to shift back to the SW
by Friday afternoon and another round of SCA conditions are likely
Friday evening and overnight as a belt of stronger winds aloft
overspread the area. Winds remain elevated into Saturday morning
before subsiding to sub-SCA levels by the afternoon hours. There is
decent confidence in a wind shift to the N-NW Saturday night as a
cold front drops through, but uncertainty quickly increases by
Sunday-Monday as low pressure may develop and ride along the remnant
frontal boundary. A closer/stronger low would lead to higher winds
while a weaker/suppressed system would have weaker winds. At this
time, at least marginal SCAs appear probable. Will continue to
monitor.

Seas remain in the 3-5 ft range through Friday morning with some
potential for 6 ft seas out 20 nm on the ocean tonight. Seas then
briefly subside to 2-3 ft Friday before increasing again to 3-5 ft
Friday night and Saturday morning with the SW wind increase.

Low water conditions are still possible Friday night into Saturday
in the lower Chesapeake Bay, James/York Rivers, and near the coast
of the Atlantic waters. While guidance has trended a bit higher with
the water levels, there is still potential for -1 to -1.5 ft MLLW
readings and resultant Low Water Advisories.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>634-638-
     654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-
     652.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...SW