Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

457
FXUS61 KAKQ 031100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
700 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine Dense Fog Advisories remain in effect for the Ocean north
of Parramore Island this morning, but have been discontinued
elsewhere.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A backdoor cold front lingers across the area
this morning before pushing northward. A sharp temperature gradient
in the morning will become another warm day with above average
temperatures continuing through Saturday.

2) A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or
thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

3) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly
below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze
headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A backdoor cold front lingers across the area
this morning before pushing northward. A sharp temperature gradient
in the morning will become another warm day with above average
temperatures continuing through Saturday.

Latest wx analysis shows a backdoor cold front draped across the
area early this morning. There is a sharp temperature gradient
revealing the front is located just south of I-64. In areas with the
cooler temperatures (the northern half of the forecast area), patchy
to dense fog has formed. Currently, the lowest visibilities are on
the Eastern Shore. The fog may drift down to Richmond this morning
as well. Will continue to monitor obs and cameras for the need of a
Special Weather Statement or even a Dense Fog Advisory.
Parked high pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean will continue
to keep the winds out of the S-SW, which will push the backdoor
front to the north of the area during the day. This will allow for
well above average temperatures to continue today and Saturday with
highs in the 80s, possibly challenging record highs. A rogue
shower/storm cannot be ruled out , but confidence is low at this
time.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or
thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

A low pressure system will advance NE across the Great Lakes Region
over the weekend and drag a strong cold front through the area on
Sunday. Guidance continues to show a late morning frontal passage
for the NW then making it across the SE by the early evening. With
the timing of the front, a rather large temperature gradient for the
highs on Sunday will be evident with the NW seeing highs in the low
to mid 70s and the SE in the upper 70s to near 80F. This will lead
to some instability, mainly in the SE, which could allow for some
thunderstorms, and maybe a strong to severe storm or two. Widespread
rainfall totals look to be 0.25-0.50" with locally high amounts in
storms. Ensemble probs for large-scale totals of 1" are next to
nothing, but any rain is welcome, as a large majority of the area is
under a moderate drought. Additionally, ahead of and behind the
front, winds will be gusty to 25-30 mph during the day Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly
below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze
headlines.

Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average early
next week in the wake of the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will
be in the 60s. A weak front potentially drops south through the area
Tuesday as high pressure builds to the north of the area which will
result in cooler conditions on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s due to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or
freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-
Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started with
temperatures falling back into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 550 AM EDT Friday...

A backdoor cold front is sitting across the northern
half of the FA with SBY seeing LIFR conditions with dense fog. The
fog is expected to improving after sunrise (~14-15z) at SBY. RIC
could see some lowered MVFR CIGs develop until 14z. ORF and PHF are
currently seeing MVFR CIGs but expecting the CIGs to lift by 12z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions through the TAF period after this morning.
Winds will be southwesterly during the day, as the front pushes back
north. Gusts up to 20-25 kt is expected at most terminals between 16-
23z.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon through
Saturday at all sites. Widespread showers and possible flight
restrictions are expected Sunday along a stronger cold front
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 655 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisories in effect this morning for
  northern coastal waters.

- Mainly sub-SCA marine conditions continue through Saturday,
  with SCAs likely Saturday night through Sunday night both
  ahead of and behind a cold front.

Low pressure is located north of the Great Lakes, with high
pressure well off the mid-Atlantic coast. A sfc boundary is in
place across the local marine area early this morning, with
light E/NE winds and areas of fog along and north of the
front. Marine Dense Fog Advisories are in place through 10 AM
for the Ocean N of Parramore Island, but have been discontinued
for the middle Bay and Rappahannock river as cameras and obs
show improving conditions. Sub- SCA conditions prevail w/ 3-4
ft seas and waves 1-2 ft or less. Later this morning, as the
boundary lifts back N, southerly winds will average 10-15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt over all of the waters. While a brief period
of low- end SCAs is possible tonight across the Ocean N of Cape
Charles, it is quite marginal with seas perhaps to 5 ft at the
outer edge of the zones w/ gusts approaching 25 kt for a few
hrs. Opted to not issue any headlines as confidence remains low
and due to the very marginal nature of the event. SCAs still
appear more likely from late Saturday night through Monday
morning, S-SW winds increase to ~20 kt with gusts of ~25 kt by
late Saturday night due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead
of an approaching cold front. That front crosses the waters late
Sunday afternoon- late Sunday evening, with a period of low-end
SCAs with N- NW winds likely Sun night- Mon AM with CAA
following the FROPA. A secondary cold front will likely bring
SCAs to the waters Tuesday night- Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs through Saturday, 4/4:

Richmond:           Record High:

Fri (4/3)           93/1963
Sat (4/4)           87/2011

Norfolk:            Record High:

Fri (4/3)           91/1963
Sat (4/4)           86/2025

Salisbury:          Record High:

Fri (4/3)           86/1963
Sat (4/4)           83/1999

Elizabeth City:     Record High:

Fri (4/3)           89/1967
Sat (4/4) 88/2025

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMC/NB
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...ERI/LKB
CLIMATE...AJB