Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

317
FXUS61 KAKQ 051038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
638 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. The Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) continues for SE portions of the area. The main
threat remaining isolated damaging wind gusts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front brings a high coverage of
showers or thunderstorms today. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
for severe weather across the SE portions of the area, with the main
threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

2) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or
slightly below average early next week with the potential for
frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be
Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away
from the coast.

3) Depending on the amount of rainfall received, there may be
potential for heightened fire weather concerns early this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front brings a high coverage of
showers or thunderstorms today. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
for severe weather across the SE portions of the area, with the main
threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

A low pressure system will lift NE of the Great Lakes today dragging
a strong cold front through the area late this afternoon into the
overnight hours. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected across the area today. The timing of the showers and
isolated thunderstorms remains similar from previous forecasts,
expecting convection to begin in NW portions first late this morning
then reaching the SE portions by early afternoon. Good moisture
returns to the area ahead of the front (dewpoints in the low to mid
60s) will allow a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE across the eastern half
of the area. Additionally, the SE will see higher temperatures as
the timing of the front is later with highs in the upper 70 to near
80F. This higher instability/better surface heating could help
storms to become strong to severe in the SE portions of the area.
SPC maintains the Marginal Risk (level 1/5) with the front in the SE
portions of the area where the conditions are more favorable. The
main threat with any storm would be isolated damaging winds gusts,
as wind profiles look to be largely unidirectional with poor lapse
rates.

Rainfall totals look to be around 0.25-0.50" on average. High values
up to 1.00" is possible in the SE from higher amounts in storms.
While totals of ~1" are unlikely, any rain is welcome, as a large
majority of the area is under a moderate drought. Additionally, a SW
wind will gust to 25-30 mph in advance of the showers/tstms.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend
near or slightly below average early next week with the
potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks
to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible
away from the coast.

Behind the cold front today, temperatures will trend closer to
average or below average this week. Highs on Monday will be in the
mid 60s (lower 60s at the coast) and mid 50s N to mid 60s S on
Tuesday, as a secondary front drops south through the area Tuesday.
providing a reinforced shot of CAA. Strong high pressure builds to
the north of the area by midweek which will result in cooler
conditions Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s due to
the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines
both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-Thursday AM for
areas where the growing season has started. For reference, the
growing season has started 4/1 for all but the far NW counties,
which start 4/11. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have the
highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around freezing
possible, with even upper 20s possible in the Piedmont, depending on
how much boundary layer decoupling that occurs. Temperatures
gradually moderate back to near seasonal averages late in the week
while dry conditions persist.


3) Depending on the amount of rainfall received, there may be
potential for heightened fire weather concerns early this week.

With the two cold fronts and high pressure building over the area
this week, there is potential for heightened fire weather concerns
as dewpoints drop significantly and minimum RH values reach to the
mid 20s to mid 30s for portions of the area. However, winds are not
expected to be more than 15-20 mph early this week. With the large
majority of the area under a moderate drought, there may be some
concern for fire weather depending on the amount of rainfall
received today.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Sunday...

Mostly VFR conditions begin the 12z/05 TAF period, and will
last through at least 15z. MVFR CIGs are currently at ECG, but
will likely lift at or around 12z. Have included a TEMPO for
12-13z to account for the lifting. Otherwise, SCT-BKN high
clouds are moving into the western portions of the area this
morning, and will thicken. Winds are currently SW 10-15 kt with
gusts to 20-25 kt, remaining through the late afternoon. A cold
front will cross the area this afternoon moving west to east
bringing widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. RIC will
likely become impacted first around 15z, followed by PHF and SBY
around 16-17z, then ORF and ECG around 18-20z. Lowered VSBYs
and stronger wind gusts are anticipated with any stronger
showers or thunderstorms. After the convection ends, MVFR CIGs
may linger for an hour or two, and then winds will shift out of
the NW around 5-10 kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions will return late overnight Sunday into
Monday behind the front, continuing through midweek. A secondary
dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect for the Bay/rivers, and Ocean N of Cape
  Charles, and will go into effect later today for the Ocean S
  of Cape Charles and the Currituck sound.

- Strong high pressure building in behind another cold front
  will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.

High pressure is located offshore to the SE and low pressure is
well to the N and NW across Ontario and Quebec. S-SW winds
average 15-20 kt with gusts to ~25 kt across most of the region
early this morning due to a compressed pressure gradient in
advance of an approaching cold front. Seas are generally 3-4 ft,
but will build to 5-6 ft offshore of the northern waters this
aftn. The more limited fetch will tend to keep them capped at
~4 ft to the south, but with gusts to 25-30 kt, will probably
see seas to ~5ft out near 20 NM offshore so have decided to add
SCAs the southern ocean zones this aftn even though it will be
more marginal. Most of the CAMs depict some sort of line of
convection moving through the waters late in the aftn so
locally stronger convective wind gusts will be possible (and
will be handled w/ SMWs as needed). The front crosses the
waters late afternoon into the evening. CAA is lacking through
most of the evening, so a 6hr+ timeframe with winds only around
10 kt is still expected before a period with stronger N-NW winds
develops late in the evening as we approach midnight and lasts
into early Monday morning. For the Ocean, have extended the
SCAs into early Monday to cover this second surge since seas
will stay near 4-5 ft offshore this evening. For the remainder
of the area, will only cover the SW winds with headlines and
allow subsequent shifts to determine if the sub-SCA period is
long enough to allow the headlines to end with new ones for the
overnight surge.

Weak/transient high pressure brings diminishing winds Monday,
but a secondary cold front pushes through late Monday night,
brining an uptick in winds as they shift back to the N-NW (this
looks to mainly be sub-SCA). However, strong high pressure to
nearly 1040 mb lags behind and will settle into the the NE CONUS
and northern mid- Atlantic region Tue night/early Wed. The
additional CAA and pressure rises will likely lead to a stronger
surge of northerly winds, and with the direction being more
from the NE, seas are likely to build more significantly to at
least 5-6 ft for the southern ocean zones, bringing SCAs back
into the forecast for most of the local waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...LKB