Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

567
FXUS61 KAKQ 011940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
340 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat for showers/storms has diminished across the SE
today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Outside of a stray shower in NE NC, dry conditions
prevail tonight through midweek. Breezy winds are expected along the
coast tonight and Tuesday.

2) A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Outside of a stray shower in NE NC, dry conditions
prevail tonight through midweek. Breezy winds are expected along the
coast tonight and Tuesday.

A cold front is now situated just S of the forecast area, roughly
aligned along the Albemarle Sound. Northerly winds are now observed
across all our NE NC counties, but dew points do remain a bit higher
S of the NC/VA border. Therefore, could still see an isolated shower
or two is in the Elizabeth City vicinity over the next few hours.
MLCAPE is only around 300 J/kg, so the threat for storms has
generally diminished. Drier air filters in areawide tonight and
temperatures drop in the 50s. Northeast winds also become breezy
along the coast tonight as the pressure gradient tightens with weak
low pressure developing offshore and high pressure building in N/NW
of the region and a SW-NE trough axis pivoting into the Mid-
Atlantic.

Below average temps and dry conditions are expected Tuesday with
breezy NE winds (gusts to 30 mph) continuing near the coast.
Forecast highs are in the lower-mid 70s on Tue and likely only in
the upper 60s along the coast due to the cool NE flow. With high
pressure building toward the area (especially inland) Tue night,
lows in the upper 40s-lower 50s are expected away from the coast
where winds become light or calm. Some of the cooler statistical
guidance even suggests some temps as low as the mid 40s by early
Wednesday morning. Temps recover a bit on Wednesday, though continue
to remain below average with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s at
the coast to around 80 inland. Unfortunately, the low offshore is
not expected to bring precip to the area.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this
week into the weekend.

The persistent upper level trough over the eastern US begins to
break down/weaken by Thursday. This will allow a summer pattern to
take hold with temperatures climbing into the 80s on Thursday and
upper 80s to lower 90s Friday into the weekend. Moisture will be
relatively slow to return for early June with aftn dew points
potentially in the mid 50s-60F through much of the weekend. Outside
of an isolated diurnal shower/storm, dry conditions are favored
Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly dry wx and VFR conditions are expected through this
afternoon. Localized MVFR CIGs and SCT showers continue along
the Albemarle Sound as of 18z; however, other than a stray
shower, expect ECG to stay generally dry the rest of today. The
chance for tstms has also diminished. Otherwise, VFR CU w/
bases 4-7k ft AGL continue through around sunset. MVFR CIGs may
then develop at ECG and potentially ORF later tonight into
Tuesday morning. Confidence in the exact placement is not very
high, so will limit mention to ECG w/ SCT MVFR at ORF. VFR
prevails elsewhere. N-NE 10-15 kt winds today will actually
increase this evening into tonight along the coast of SE VA and
NE NC. Noticeable breezy conditions continue along the coast
Tuesday morning (gusts to ~25 kt), with lower, but still
breezy, winds inland.


Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions return later Tuesday through
Friday. Gusty onshore winds persist along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Tuesday
  afternoon for the lower Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and
  lower James River.

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore
  coastal waters into Wednesday.

Latest analysis shows that the surface cold front has pushed
south of the local waters this afternoon. Latest obs and buoy
reports show winds have veered around to the NNE over the local
waters at ~10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt as of this writing.
Waves are 1-2 ft on the Chesapeake Bay, tidal VA rivers, and the
Currituck Sound. Seas are running 2-3 ft north and 3-4 ft
south. Showers and a few embedded storms over the far southern
waters south of Cape Henry will continue to push south through
late afternoon. Cannot rule out a few lingering showers over the
far southern coastal waters through sunset, but conditions will
be mainly dry tonight and for much of the upcoming week.

The front will push farther south this evening, with winds to
increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in response to weak
low pressure sliding along the front just south of the local
waters. Meanwhile, building E-NE wind wave will increase waves
and seas tonight into Tuesday. Waves build to 2-5 ft in the
Chesapeake Bay (highest at the mouth of the bay), with seas of
5-8 ft highest over the southern coastal waters. High pressure
builds northwest of the local waters tomorrow afternoon through
midweek, as the weak low slides by offshore. This will maintain
a tight pressure gradient, and solid NE winds through Wednesday,
peaking at 20-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt, highest south of
Parramore Island. Regarding headlines: Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect for the lower bay, lower James River, and
Currituck Sound through Tuesday, and the SCA has been extended
over the southern coastal waters through Wednesday evening.

More benign boating conditions return late in the week and into
next weekend, as a more summer-like pattern takes hold, characterized
by mainly offshore winds backing onshore with afternoon seabreeze
circulations. Continued mainly dry with the next chance of
widespread showers coming over the weekend.

There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk at all area beaches today.
A Moderate Rip Risk remains in place Tuesday over the northern
beaches, with a High Rip Risk forecast for the southern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...KMC/MAM