Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

261
FXUS61 KAKQ 272356
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
756 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The severe threat has diminished this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The severe threat has diminished this evening. Some
additional, but sub-severe showers and thunderstorms are
possible through the early overnight hours.

2) Marginal Risk for Severe storms along and S of I-64 Sunday.
Dry with seasonable temperatures Monday-Tuesday.

3) A significant heat wave leading to Headlines is likely later
in the week into the Holiday weekend, especially Thu-Fri.
Shower/thunderstorm chances remain very low through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 755 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The severe threat has diminished this evening.
Some additional, but sub-severe showers and thunderstorms are
possible through the early overnight hours.

Latest analysis continues to show a wavy frontal boundary
draped just north of the local area snaking back into the Ohio
Valley. Showers/tstms developed quickly from 2-4PM earlier this
aftn, and then have demonstrated a weakening trend since 6PM.
Therefore, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled, and
the severe threat has diminished. Showers and a few embedded
tstms will gradually push across Eastern VA and offshore through
9PM. Some additional activity will move across southern VA and
into NE NC later this evening into the early overnight hours.
Otherwise, only isolated showers are expected later tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal Risk for Severe storms along and S of
I-64 Sunday. Dry with seasonable temperatures Monday-Tuesday.

Convective coverage is expected to be a bit less on Sunday for
northern areas as the front slowly drops across the region.
However, still expect high chc to low- end likely PoPs across
southern and western portions of the FA as the front sinks
south through the area and the low- level flow becomes N-NE
across northern portions of the FA. Again, potential for
damaging wind gusts persists primarily across Hampton Roads
into NE NC, albeit a bit earlier in the day through around
sunset. Dry and slightly less humid Monday and Tuesday, with
temps in the mid- upper 80s Monday and upper 80s to lower 90s
Tuesday as high pressure builds toward the area from the NNE.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant heat wave is likely later in the
week into the Holiday weekend, especially Thu-Fri, with heat
headlines likely to be needed for much if not all of the area.
Shower/thunderstorm chances remain very low through Thursday.

A strong upper ridge slowly drifts east from the OH Valley to
the central Appalachians later in the week. There remain some
subtle differences in the precise location, but confidence is
high that this setup will lead to a significant heat wave for
the local area. The MEX numbers look to be too cool with highs
peaking only in the mid to upper 90s locally given a strong
consensus for H5 heights >595 dm and 850 mb temps of 21-23C.
This is likely being too influenced by climo. With that said,
have continued to cut a few degrees off of the NBM temperatures
for highs Wednesday- Friday; current forecast is for highs
Thursday- Friday ranging from the upper 90s to the low 100s
area-wide (with the highest temperatures for the interior MD
eastern shore and central and south central VA). The weak sfc
pressure gradient will tend to allow some aftn seabreeze
development, locally bringing steady or falling late day
temperatures. The caveat will be the higher dew pts along the
coast so peak heat indices may be similar. Also continued to
make some adjustments downward with aftn dew P`s from the NBM
(especially from the I-95 corridor and P`s west). The latest
forecast shows heat indices of 105-110 F fairly widespread for
Thursday and Friday (with pockets of 110+ possible).

The only real opportunity for showers and storms in this
pattern would be with that same seabreeze triggering some
isolated convection along the coast, or more broadly in "ring
of fire" type convective complexes. However, with the heat ridge
trending farther east with time, this does not appear very
likely, and thus rain chances remain quite low Wed- Thu, with
some slight chc to low chc PoPs by late Friday. This will all
be better resolved as we get closer. The bottom line is that
preparations should be made now for a period of hot
temperatures/heat indices late next week. Heat headlines are
likely to be needed for most if not all of our area during this
time period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Saturday...

Primarily VFR as of 00z with some patchy MVFR vsby in light
rain. Generally VFR conditions are expected through 08-09z
outside of any brief restrictions in light rain with a light SSW
wind. MVFR/IFR cigs are possible once again late tonight
through early Sunday morning from about 08-09z through 14-15z
for most sites. ECG is expected to be generally VFR with some
shallow ground fog possible around sunrise, and MVFR cigs may be
slower to lift at SBY potentially lingering into Sunday aftn.
Shower/tstm chances return Sunday aftn (lowest chance for SBY,
highest southern VA and NE NC terminals). Brief IFR/MVFR
conditions are possible in any showers/tstms, primarily vsby
restrictions in heavy rain. Strong wind gusts are possible with
any tstms.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to return by the beginning
of next week and continue through the middle of next week as
high pressure builds S across the area and then settles
offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through much
  of the week. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected for
  the next two days ahead of a weakening cold front.

Sfc high pressure remains centered near Bermuda this afternoon.
Locally, the synoptic wind field is light and wind wind speeds
around 5 kt or so. Expect continued light flow through most of
today, though any thunderstorms that develop and move over the
marine area this afternoon and evening are likely to produce locally
higher winds and waves. A weak cold front is forecast to slowly
advance southward Sunday with winds veering to the NE by the later
afternoon. Additional showers/storms are also expected Sunday, with
SMWs to be issued as needed. NE winds become 10-15 kt Monday as the
pressure gradient modestly tightens behind the front and weak low
pressure develops well offshore of the OBX. There remains some spread
in the model guidance as to the strength of these features and the
resultant strength of the winds, with the strongest solutions
depicting SCA conditions across the southern two coastal water
zones. However, the current forecast and model consensus remains
below SCA thresholds. Seas build to 3-4 ft S and 2-3 ft N during the
Monday timeframe; otherwise, seas remain in the 2-3 ft range through
the period. A typical summertime pattern is expected after Monday
with light flow, daily sea breezes, and isolated afternoon/evening
convection.

The rip current risk is low today and Sunday. With onshore flow and
nearshore waves around 3 ft, a moderate risk is likely for southern
beaches and possible for northern beaches Monday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 1000 AM EDT Saturday...

KAKQ radar has returned to service.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW
EQUIPMENT...LKB