Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

557
FXUS61 KAKQ 111142
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
642 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated full discussion. Friday has trended drier, with only
isolated to scattered shower activity Thursday.

Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Remaining dry and seasonably mild today.

2) A series of cold fronts brings a chance for isolated to
scattered showers Thursday, but any potential for appreciable
rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the fronts
with below freezing overnight temperatures likely inland this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and seasonably mild today.

Morning sfc analysis shows a large, diffuse area of high pressure
over most of the southeastern CONUS. Well to our W, a shortwave
trough aloft is digging through the central Plains and the
beginnings of sfc low pressure development are noted over the
eastern Dakotas and Iowa vicinity. While this system will eventually
be a player in our weather tomorrow, one last day of pleasant and
mild weather is on the way. High temps will generally be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s W of the Chesapeake Bay and in the mid to
upper 60s on the Eastern Shore. Some increase in high clouds is
likely this afternoon as upper-level moisture begins to impinge into
the area. Tonight`s lows generally in the 40s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A series of cold fronts brings a chance for isolated
to scattered showers Thursday, but any potential for appreciable
rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the fronts with
below freezing overnight temperatures likely inland this weekend.

Still expecting a pronounced pattern shift over the next few days,
characterized by a chance for scattered showers Thursday and then
much cooler temps and gusty winds Friday into the weekend. Regarding
the rainfall potential, the most likely for any showers has shifted
to the Thursday morning and afternoon timeframe as the lead
shortwave pivots into the region. A lingering shower or two is also
possible into the evening Thursday. Forecast rainfall amounts are
very uninspiring and currently appear to be a tenth of an inch or
less. The best shot for any showers is confined to the northern half
of our forecast area, with chances tapering off quickly down near
the NC/VA border. Any rain also appears unlikely Friday now as drier
air infiltrates the area and the associated sfc low moves offshore
of New England.

The main focus will be the much cooler temperatures as an
anomalously strong longwave trough moves into the region. Thursday
looks to be the last mild day for a while highs in the mid-upper 60s
for most and around 70F SE. Cooler air rushes in Thursday
evening/night behind a series of cold fronts and forecast highs
Friday are only in the 50s. The large upper trough remains parked
over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday, and this still looks like
the coolest day of the period with highs only expected to reach the
lower 50s for most of the area. It may struggle to get out of the
upper 40s across the far northern portions of the area and
especially the lower MD Eastern Shore. These cool temps continue
into early next week. Overnight lows will also be much cooler with
lows in the upper 20s to around freezing for most locations away
from the coast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. Subfreezing
temperatures may continue (for lows) Monday and Tuesday nights as
well. Accordingly, the growing season looks to be ending shortly for
most areas. Will likely need a Freeze Watch as we get closer to the
weekend. Gusty NW winds could make these temps feel even chillier.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 640 AM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Other than
some SCT high clouds later today, mostly clear skies prevail.
Light and variable winds this morning become SE ~5 kt late this
morning and afternoon. Light winds tonight-Thursday morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue most of
Thursday. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday and
brings a chance of showers, with a 20-40% chance at SBY and RIC
and <20% elsewhere. Some short- lived sub- VFR conditions are
possible overnight Thursday-Friday morning, along with gusty NW
winds behind the front through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely beginning Thursday
  night as northwest winds increase behind a strong cold front,
  and likely continue Friday through the weekend as a cold
  upper trough overspreads the region.

- There is a low probability of occasional gale force gusts over
  the offshore waters Saturday, but frequent gale conditions
  are unlikely at this time.

High pressure is centered over the southern Mid-Atlantic and
Carolina coasts early this morning. The wind is light and generally
out of the W. Seas are around 2ft in the coastal waters, 2-3ft in
the offshore waters, and around 1ft in the Ches. Bay. A weak
boundary slides S along the coast over the next few hours resulting
in a wind shift to N then NE with wind speeds of 5-10kt. The wind
becomes E/ESE 5-10kt by this aftn, and then SE 5-10kt tonight. By
Thursday, the wind becomes S followed by SW and increasing to 10-
15kt as the high moves farther offshore and as low pressure and a
cold front approach from the NW. Seas remain to ~2ft nearshore and 2-
3 ft offshore today through at least midday Thursday, before
gradually building to 2-3ft nearshore to 3-4ft offshore later
Thursday. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be ~1ft today and tonight
building to 1-2ft Thursday morning, and then 2-3ft later Thursday.

Low pressure and a strong cold front push across the coast and
offshore Thursday night into Friday. The wind becomes NW 15-25kt
Thursday night into early Friday behind the cold front, with gusts
up to 25-30kt in the middle Ches. Bay and the Atlantic waters off
the Eastern Shore. Seas build to 4-6ft, with 3-4ft waves in the
Ches. Bay. A slight lull is possible during the day Friday, before a
cold upper trough overspreads the Mid-Atlantic coast and lingers
through the weekend. The 11/00z ECMWF/GFS/CMC each have 925mb wind
speeds peaking at 25-30kt later Friday night through Saturday
evening, before gradually diminishing later Saturday night into
Sunday. EPS probs from the 11/00z cycle for gusts at or above 34kt
(which tend to run high) have largely dropped to 20-40% with 40-50%
probs out near 60nm during this time period. Local 34kt wind gust
probs are primarily less than 20%, with 30-40% out near 60nm later
Saturday, and the 11/00z GEFS has negligible probs for 34kt. Given
this, gale conditions are unlikely later Friday through Saturday
night with generally a NW wind of 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt for the
Ches. Bay and ocean, with NW 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt elsewhere.
Occasional gusts to 35kt are possible from 20-60nm Saturday. Seas
build to 4-5ft nearshore and 5-7ft beyond 20nm, with 2-4ft waves in
the Ches. Bay. SCA conditions potentially linger into Sunday, but
the wind should gradually diminish, with lighter winds expected by
early next week as high pressure returns.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RMM/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ