Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

122
FXUS61 KAKQ 131141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
641 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 12z TAF/Aviation discussion.

Highs have been lowered for today over the VA Northern Neck and
Eastern Shore, with clouds increased (especially north).

A Freeze Warning has been issued for inland portions of central
and eastern Virginia as well as portions of northeast North
Carolina for late tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much colder air arrives today and persists into early next
week, bringing widespread sub-freezing temperatures inland
tonight. A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of the area
tonight into Saturday morning, with near-freezing temperatures
possible again Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Much colder air arrives today and persists into
early next week, bringing widespread sub-freezing temperatures
inland tonight. A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of
the area tonight into Saturday morning, with near- freezing
temperatures possible again Sunday morning.

Early morning analysis shows deepening low pressure E-SE of
Eastern Long Island, and a 1028+ mb high building across the
upper Midwest. Aloft, a potent upper trough digs over the
eastern CONUS. This feature will linger over the Mid-Atlantic
through the weekend before weakening early next week, ushering
in the coldest airmass of the season so far. Strong cold air
advection will drive breezy NW winds today and Saturday, with
gusts of 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the coast peaking
on Saturday. Nudged high temperatures down a bit over the
Eastern Shore, as a developing deformation zone keeps
considerable wraparound low- mid level cloud cover over the
Delmarva today. While this feature should stay far enough to our
NE to keep precipitation out of the area, overcast skies should
still hold highs in the 40s for much of the Eastern Shore and
no higher than the lower 50s over the VA Northern Neck. Clouds
will scatter out farther south, allowing highs to reach the mid-
to- upper 50s south of I-64 under a partly cloudy sky. Highs
return to the 50s area- wide this weekend into early next week,
with dry weather still prevailing.

Aside from lingering clouds over the Delmarva, clear skies, a
dry airmass, and diminishing inland winds tonight will promote
efficient radiational cooling and the first widespread freeze of
the fall. Lows are forecast to drop into the upper 20s to low
30s inland, with upper 30s to low 40s near the coast.
Accordingly, the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze
Warning for the I-95 corridor across central and south-central
VA into Hertford and Northampton counties in NC. While a better-
mixed boundary layer Saturday night should keep temperatures
slightly higher, additional Freeze Watches may be needed for
Sunday morning in counties that do not experience a freeze
tonight. Lingering breezes will push wind chills into the mid-
to-upper 20s inland (mid 30s at the coast) for those early
risers this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 AM EST Friday...

Mainly VFR for most of the local TAF sites through the 12z TAF
period, with the exception of CIGs MVFR along the Delmarva,
including at SBY. As low pressure deepens offshore, wrap around
moisture will likely result in persistent BKN MVFR CIGs at SBY
this morning into early evening. Elsewhere, expect BKN clouds
between 4000-8000 ft, lingering through the remainder of the TAF
period. MVFR CIGs at SBY eventually improve late tonight and
Saturday, as drier air arrives from the NW. W-NW winds become
gusty toward sunrise this morning, then continue through late
afternoon, with gusts to 20 kt expected.

Outlook: VFR conditions are favored from Saturday into next
week with continued gusty NW winds through the weekend, peaking
on Saturday with gusts to 20 to 30 kt, then gradually diminishing
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, lower
James River, and coastal waters north of the VA/NC border through
Saturday night/Sunday morning. SCAs for the NC coastal waters and
Currituck Sound will go into effect tonight through Saturday
night/Sunday morning. The strongest NW winds occuring on Saturday.

- Benign marine conditions are expected early next week through at
least mid week.


A cold front crossed the local waters earlier today. An initial
surge of elevated winds is observed early this morning with NW winds
at ~15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt across the local waters from cold
air advection and a tighten pressure gradient. Seas are now 3-4 ft
with 1-3 ft waves. Waves and seas will continue to build today with
the elevated winds. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the
Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and coastal waters north of the
VA/NC border, now extended through Sat night/Sun morning.

A secondary surge of stronger NW winds is expected late tonight and
Saturday from an additional push of CAA. Widespread SCA conditions
are expected with winds peaking around 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt.
An isolated gust to 35 knots is possible out around 60 nm, but gale
wind gust probabilities are near zero. Seas will build to 4-6 ft
near shore and 6-8 ft for the waters beyond 20 nm. Waves will become
2-4 ft. Elevated waves and seas will continue through Sunday
morning. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the NC coastal
waters and Currituck Sound with this from late tonight (10 PM)
through Sat night/Sun morning. At this time, the upper rivers are
marginal, but could be included in future packages. Additionally,
gusts to 20 kt may linger in the Ches. Bay through Sunday. Benign
marine conditions will return late Sunday through at least mid week
as high pressure builds over the region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ012-013.
VA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for VAZ076-
     079>083-087>090-092-512>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/RMM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...AJB/KMC