Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

094
FXUS61 KAKQ 230002
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
802 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Advisories have been added to the bay side of the MD
Eastern Shore for tonight`s high tide cycle. In addition, all coastal
Flood Watches have been upgraded to Coastal Flood Warnings.

Wind advisories have been added for the immediate coast as winds
will likely gust in excess of 50mph Wed afternoon into Thursday
night.

Shower and storms have developed along a stalled boundary across
SE portions of the area, leading to locally heavy
rainfall/flash flooding.

Temperatures continue to trend cooler Wednesday through
Thursday. Introduced rain chances across far NE portions of the
area Saturday-Sunday. Confidence in the forecast for this
weekend remains below average due to uncertainties with a
developing coastal low.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heavy rain continues across southeastern portions of the
area into this evening as a front lingers across the area.
Cooler, CAD conditions take hold for the remainder of the
forecast area.

2) Strong onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and rainy conditions
will continue on Wednesday. Rain chances gradually shift east
Thursday, potentially making for a dry end to the week. Gusty winds
will persist.

3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal
flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely
by the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast
winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide
cycles given the persistent northeast winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy rain continues across southeastern portions of
the area into this evening as a front lingers across the area.
Cooler, CAD conditions take hold for the remainder of the
forecast area.

This afternoon, high pressure is situated over Ontario, Canada
extending over into New England and into northern portions of the
Mid Atlantic. A nearly stationary front is draped across
southeastern portions of the forecast area (roughly along the VA/NC
border). Very heavy rain showers (and isolated storms) have
developed along and just to the north of the boundary over Hampton
Roads where multiple Flash Flood Warnings are in effect. Very
efficient, warm rainfall processes, this afternoon thanks to flow off
the warmer Atlantic/Chesapeake Bay waters combined with maximized
PWATs of ~2+" over SE Virginia. We have seen rainfall rates of 5"+
per hour at times this afternoon with the current showers.
Additional Flash Flood Warnings will likely be needed across
portions of Hampton Roads/SE Virginia and potentially into NE North
Carolina later this afternoon and evening as the activity continues
to slide south. Rainfall rates should gradually lighten up later
this evening into tonight as a cooler wedge airmass continues to
push into the area from the north. It`s a much different story for
locations outside of SE VA/NE NC where we are seeing low clouds and
mist/light showers, combined with much cooler temperatures in the
60s to lower 70s due to the developing CAD wedge. Temperatures
tonight will range from the mid 50s NW to around 70 SE.

Additionally, northeast winds will increase throughout this evening
and into tonight as the Canadian high pressure shifts east and low
pressure forms off the NC/SC coast. Locations along the coast,
including the entire Eastern Shore, Norfolk, Hampton Roads, and into
Currituck County will see wind gusts upwards of 25 to 30 mph. The
Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore including Ocean City and
Chincoteague will see their gusts build to 40 to 45 mph overnight.
These higher gusts will persist for the coastline through Thursday
night. Further inland, gusts to ~20mph are expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and rainy
conditions will continue on Wednesday. Rain chances gradually shift
east Thursday, potentially making for a dry end to the week. Gusty
winds will persist.

Cold air damming will overtake the area on Wednesday as high
pressure remains parked to our north. This will make for our coolest
day of the week as high temperatures top out in the low to mid 60s
for the western and northern inland areas, with low 70s for the SE
half of the CWA. It is possible that far NW portions of the area
(Louisa) may stay in the upper 50s. Inland ~20 mph wind gusts are
forecast through the day. Winds for coastal counties will
persistently be blowing around 20 to 25mph with gusts to 35+ mph.
The strongest winds will continue to be along the Atlantic coast
with gusts to 40-45mph expanding down the span of our coastline
through the day on Wednesday. These winds are forecast to stick
around through Thursday night and even into Friday as the tightened
pressure gradient between the strong high pressure to the north and
the strengthening low pressure over the ocean remains. With the CAD
wedge in place, the environment will be stable leading to mainly
steady stratiform rain across the area on Wednesday and Thursday.
Lows will cool off a few more degrees Wednesday night with low to
mid 50s inland and low 60s east.

Rain chances look to become more confined to eastern portions of the
area Thursday into the first part of Friday as a secondary surface
low forms along our coast and causes the main low to deepen, as well
as finally have the potential to gain some forward momentum. Models
still disagree on exactly where the low will be on Friday, with the
GFS moving it off to the northeast while the ECMWF still keeps it
closer to our shore. One solution will allow for winds to subside
later Friday and drier air to move in for the weekend, while the
other keeps the elevated impactful conditions lingering a bit
longer. For now, the NBM solution is mostly a blend of the two
solutions, keeping low-end rain chances lingering along the coast
(especially NE) through the weekend. It is possible that the
forecast may change substantially over the next few days for the
weekend as we get more clarity on the placement of this coastal low.

Highs on Thursday will still be well below normal as the
effects of the CAD remain, with lower 60s forecast west of I-95 and
upper 60s to lower 70s to the east. Thursday night will be rather
chilly with far northwestern and western cool spots dipping into the
upper 40s. If the low is able to shift to the northeast, our winds
will turn northerly Friday, as mentioned above, giving another
chance for more of the area to see lows in the lower 50s (likely
everyone except the coast). Highs will begin to moderate back into
the 70s Friday into the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal
flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely
by the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast
winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide
cycles given the persistent northeast winds.

Northeast winds prevail around 20-25 kt  with gusts already pushing
30kt this afternoon. The stronger NE winds likely from tonight
through Thursday night. This will likely cause water levels to rise
across much of the area (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and
Atlantic coast). Widespread minor tidal flooding is expected by this
evening/tonight`s high tide. Ramp up Coastal Flood Advisories have
been issued for much of the area now including the bay side of the
MD Eastern Shore as this mornings high tide cycle has over
performed. These Advisories go into effect from now through the
start time of the Coastal Flood Warnings (Wed morning-evening
depending on zone). A significant rise in tidal anomalies is
forecasted for tomorrow. Moderate tidal flooding could begin along
the upper James and tidal Rappahannock/Potomac rivers by tomorrow
morning, with widespread moderate to locally major flooding forecast
during tomorrows evening high tide. Moderate to locally major
flooding is expected to continue through at least the Thursday
evening/night high tide. With high enough confidence in the forecast
and observing tides slightly higher this morning Coastal FLood
Watches have been upgraded to Coastal Flood Warnings. These warnings
go into effect for a large majority of the tidal area beginning
tomorrow evening for most and Wednesday morning for tidal southern
Potomac, Rappahannock, and upper James rivers. While water levels
should gradually fall Friday-Saturday as winds diminish a bit and
become NNW, minor to moderate tidal flooding seems likely through at
least Friday evening and possibly longer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

Deteriorating aviation conditions for most of the region this
evening as a front sags south. RIC is solidly behind the wedge
front with IFR CIGs and periodic lower VIS in showers or
drizzle expected to persist through the period. SBY just dropped
to IFR CIGs but expect them to have prevailing MVFR conditions.
PHF will be on the edge between IFR conditions to the west and
MVFR to the east. Given how this ob normally performs, will go
with prevailing IFR CIGs tonight with -SHRA or DZ keeping MVFR
VIS. ORF and ECG will prevail MVFR with fewer showers or drizzle
expected. NE winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt overnight will
strengthen to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt for the coastal
terminals on Wednesday.

Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to persist through
most of the upcoming week. At least intermittent degraded
flight conditions are likely through Thursday. Coastal
terminals will also have elevated NE winds for an extended
period, with winds remaining elevated and shifting to the N-NW
into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA level winds continue through tonight before changing over to
Gale conditions by late tonight early tomorrow morning.

- Prolonged period of Gale force winds are likely to continue
through much of the week and possibly into the weekend.

- Seas build to 10-14+ feet, leading to dangerous marine
  conditions.


Afternoon weather analysis shows a 1012mb low sitting right off the
OBX. The pressure gradient from this deepening low has tightened
over the area allowing winds to increase out of the NE around 20-
25kt with gusts approaching 30kt+. Seas through the day have also
already begun to build with buoys already reporting 5-8ft seas
across the ocean and 3-4 across the bay. Small Crafts are already in
effect for all waters. By late afternoon/early evening SCA will be
replaced by Gale Warnings marine conditions rapidly deteriorate.
Winds are expected to increase to 30-35kt with gusts approaching
40kt across the bay, ocean, sound,  and lower James River. While
across the tidal rivers high-end SCAs are in effect, however, a few
35kt gusts cannot be completely ruled out. By tomorrow the pressure
gradient is expected to tighten as a stronger CAA surge arrives.
Winds will likely remain around 30-35kt with gusts nearing 40 kt.
The strongest winds are likely to impact the local waters tomorrow
night into Thursday as 925 winds likely increase to 40-45kt and the
stronger CAA arrives. With the unstable marine boundary layer and
water temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should
easily be able to mix down to the sfc. Therefore, confidence is
fairly high that we will see a period of sustained gale force winds
with gusts to 45 kt across the ocean and lower bay during the
tomorrow evening-Thu timeframe. Gale Warnings run through Thursday
evening for the upper bay, part of Thu night for the lower bay/lower
James, Friday morning for the ocean, and Friday afternoon for the
offshore (20-60nm) coastal waters. By Thursday night, there is
likely a brief decrease in the winds 20-25 kt on the bay/Lower
James. However, over the open seas winds look to remain ~30kt with
gusts approaching 35kt allowing for Gale conditions to possible
prevail through Thursday night into Friday and possibly through the
majority of the weekend. Will note, that there is still much
disagreement with the deterministic and ensemble guidance.
Nonetheless, dangerous marine conditions are likely to prevail.

Dangerous surfing conditions have begun this afternoon and will
continue through Thu with the prolonged onshore flow, and remain
high into the weekend due to elevated seas even as the winds become
NNW. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible from mid to late week
as well. High Surf Advisories are in effect for all beaches starting
this afternoon for the northern beaches and tonight for the southern
beaches and are expected to continue through early Thursday evening
for now.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ024-025.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ025.
     Wind Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     MDZ025.
NC...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NCZ017-102.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ102.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100.
     Wind Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     VAZ098>100.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078-085-
     086-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for VAZ081-082-089-090-524-528.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ083-084-
     518-520-523.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for VAZ083-084-518-520-523.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ089-090-
     524-528.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ097-098-
     525-529>531.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 2 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for VAZ097-098-525-529>531.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ630-631.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-639-
     658.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ633-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ658.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ680-682-684.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ686.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ688.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/HET/JKP
AVIATION...AJB/RHR
MARINE...ERI/HET