Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

612
FXUS61 KAKQ 131923
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
323 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Increased high temperatures a degree or two for tomorrow
  (Wednesday)

- Lowered high temperatures for Thursday

- Winds have trended higher behind the strong cold front passage
  later Friday into Saturday. Confidence in Gale conditions also
  continues to increase.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions are
expected through Friday. Record breaking highs are possible
Wednesday.

2) A strong cold front crosses the area Friday evening, with
gusty winds expected ahead of and behind the front. A few
showers and storms are also possible in the afternoon and
evening hours of Friday.

3) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Frost is
possible across portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures with mostly dry
conditions are expected through Friday. Record breaking highs are
possible Wednesday.

Sunny skies and warm (for mid-October) temperatures are ongoing
across our forecast area this afternoon. Rising heights are noted in
the mid and upper levels, with high pressure centered south of the
area at the surface. A weak shortwave slides through overnight, but
this feature will not have any noticeable impact on the local
weather. Overnight lows continue the mild trend...generally in the
lower to mid 60s.

The peak in the heat is still expected on Wednesday, with high
confidence in record-breaking temperatures for most of the area.
This will occur as the ridge axis aloft shifts eastward from the
TN/OH Valleys. Highs at least in the upper 80s are almost a given,
and a blend of the various hi-res and statistical guidance yields
highs of 90-92 F for most areas W of the Chesapeake Bay. As
noted by the previous shift, the statistical guidance remains a
few degrees higher than the NBM, so there certainly is some
room for temps to overperform some. Regardless, highs should be
well into record territory with daily records only in the mid
to upper 80s. See climate section below for site-specific data.
While these temperatures resemble mid-summmer values, dew
points in the lower to mid 60s should suppress the "mugginess"
factor.

A cold front will approach the region from the N Wednesday night and
is forecast to drop through the local area Thursday morning.
Transient high pressure will also set up over interior New England,
so a brief wedge-like pattern is possible during most of the day
with onshore flow and cool/cloudy skies. With increasing confidence
in the frontal passage occuring before peak heating, have lowered
highs ~2-4 degrees compared to the previous forecast and the NBM.
This is more in line with most of the traditional model guidance and
ultimately would not be surprised if temps trend even cooler. Exact
timing of temps remains a challenge due the the frontal passage, but
daytime highs are likely to be achieved on the earlier side and
range from the 70s/lower 80s S to 60s across the northern tier.
Clouds will also thicken from N to S Thursday as the front drops
south. In addition, some weak isentropic lift/overrunning north
of the front could result in generally light rain across the
northern third of the area Thursday. QPF is on the order of a
few hundredths of an inch.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front crosses the area Friday evening,
with gusty winds expected ahead of and behind the front. A few
showers and storms are also possible in the afternoon and evening
hours of Friday.

A deep upper trough is forecast to dig across the Great Lakes
Thursday night into Friday with a strengthening surface low over the
Ohio Valley. This will quickly erode any wedge-like airmass and
allow a quick transition back to deep-layer S/SW flow as the front
lifts back N as a warm front. High temps rebound into the upper 70s
to low 80s N with mid and upper 80s S. It will become breezy out of
the SW by Friday afternoon, with gusts to 30-35 mph possible.
Scattered showers are also probable ahead of an associated strong
cold front, particularly across N and NE portions of the local area.
An embedded storm or two is also possible but this is dependent
on the degree of available instability. Any shower/storm could
mix down locally higher wind gusts and a Marginal (level 1/5)
severe risk may eventually be needed, per SPC.

Rapidly deepening low pressure will translate from the Great Lakes
into the New England region by Friday night, with the aforementioned
sharp/strong cold front extending southwestward. This front will
cross the local area Friday evening into early Saturday with
significant cold advection moving into the region. Some additional
precip is possible along and ahead of the frontal passage through
midnight, mainly over the eastern half of the area. QPF does not
look nearly as impressive as a front of this strength would suggest,
mainly due to the unfavorable trough orientation and disconnect from
any appreciable moisture sources. However, gusty winds are likely to
continue into the Friday overnight period and could reach 35-40 mph
immediately along and behind the front.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Frost
is possible across inland portions of the area.

Strong (1035mb+) high pressure builds into the region behind the
front with upper troughing remaining over the eastern CONUS,
resulting in well below normal temperatures this weekend. Afternoon
highs on Saturday likely struggle to get out of the 50s across the
northern half of the CWA despite mostly sunny skies. Low 60s are
forecast for the southern half of the area. Breezy conditions
continue into the daytime hours of Saturday with gusts of 25-30mph,
and especially near the coast where winds could gust 30-35mph.
Overnight low temps tumble into the mid to upper 30s in the Piedmont
with low to mid 40s for the remainder of the area Saturday night.
Upper 30s and low 40s are forecast Sunday night into Monday. Some
frost is possible in the Piedmont with this airmass, particularly if
the lower temperatures (in the 32-35 F range) depicted by the MOS
guidance is realized.

A gradual warming trend is possible by early next week and the
latest CPC medium range outlook favors above-normal temperatures
through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday...

Prevailing VFR expected through the 18z TAF period with mainly
SKC, dry conditions, and 5-10 kt S/SSW winds.

Outlook: Outside of early morning localized patchy fog/stratus,
VFR conditions look to prevail through at least Wednesday. A
cold front drops south later Wednesday night into Thursday,
bringing increased cloud cover and low-end rain chances to
portions of the area. A stronger front crosses the area Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday night.

- A strong cold front crosses the waters late Friday into this
  weekend. Strong SCA to Gale conditions are likely Friday night
  through early Sunday.

Latest analysis reveals W-SW winds ~10 kt across the region
this afternoon, as high pressure builds along the southeast
coast. Waves 1 ft or less on the rivers, Sound, and Bay. Seas
averaged 2-3 ft.

High pressure builds just offshore of the coastal Carolinas
through midweek, with mainly pleasant/benign boating conditions
expected through Wed night. S-SW winds persist tonight and
tomorrow 5-10 kt, turning S-SE nearshore with the afternoon
sea breeze. A backdoor front still looks to drop across the
waters late tomorrow night into Thursday, with winds veering to
the NNE post-frontal. Winds look to remain mainly sub-SCA
(~15 kt Rivers/Bay/Sound, ~20 kt over the coastal waters)
through this period. However, internal wind probability guidance
continues to key-in on a short period of low-end SCA-level
winds in the lower Bay Thursday morning. Guidance shows a 50-70%
probability of winds ~20 kt in this area between 8 am and
around noon on Thursday, before winds diminish and veer to the
S-SE Thu afternoon and evening. Wind waves from the onshore flow
should also increase seas to 3-4 ft during this period, with
waves 2-3 ft, highest at the mouth of the Bay.

A quickly deepening surface low over the eastern Great Lakes
Friday and Friday night still looks to push a second, much
stronger cold front toward the local waters late Friday into the
weekend. The compressing gradient ahead of that front will
likely result in increasingly gusty S-SW winds late Friday
morning and especially Friday afternoon, and a short period of
SCA-level winds are possible. That front crosses the waters
Friday night into Saturday morning, with strong SCA-level winds
forecast for all waters. Local wind probs are also showing that
Gale Force gusts are looking increasingly likely, with
probabilities trending up to 30-70+% in the bay and 80-90% over
the coastal waters, peaking also in the same late Friday night
to midday Saturday time frame.

Transient high pressure is quick to slide in behind the front
Saturday afternoon into Sunday, allowing winds to veer to the
NNE and gradually diminish Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Waves/seas peak Saturday afternoon and evening, ranging from
3-6 ft over the Bay and 5-8 ft over the coastal waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

        10/13  10/14
RIC    90/1954   87/1975
ORF    89/1954   86/1975
SBY    86/1954   86/1975
ECG    87/1990   86/1975

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...RMM