Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

639
FXUS61 KAKQ 142346
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
646 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry tonight, with widespread beneficial rainfall is expected
Sunday into early Monday. Most areas likely receive from 0.75"
to 1.50" of rain.

2) Above average temperatures, and fairly limited rain chances
prevail from Tuesday- Friday as an upper ridge remains in place
across the southern tier of the CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry tonight, with widespread beneficial rainfall
expected Sunday into early Monday. Most areas likely receive
from 0.75" to 1.50" of rain.

The latest analysis indicates an upper level ridge situated from
the Gulf coast northward to the mid MS/ lower OH Valley. At the
surface, high pressure has pushed off the Carolina coast, allowing
for a dry W-SW low level flow across the local area. Much warmer
today after the chilly start, with readings well into the 50s to
around 60F under a mainly sunny sky. Very dry with RH values mostly
between 20-30%, though fire concerns are limited given recent snow
melt. Winds are locally gusting to 15-20mph, but will drop off rather
quickly towards sunset. Increasing clouds overnight, but it
should stay dry aside from ~20% PoPs around sunrise across the
far SW portions of the FA. Lows will be milder, mainly ranging
through the 30s. On Sunday, there is strong model consensus with
a deep upper level trough centered over MS/AL during the
morning/early aftn, shifting east and getting phased with the
northern stream while pushing to the SE coast Sunday evening,
and off the coast overnight. Strong WAA aloft and lift through
the DGZ moves over the region Sunday aftn/evening, as a sfc warm
front moves into central NC. High pressure will be in place
from Quebec into New England, leading to a CAD setup. Therefore,
have undercut the NBM for highs across south central and
central VA where highs will mostly be in the mid/upper 40s.
Farther SE, stayed close to the NBM with highs in the 50s. As
for rainfall amounts, there is good consensus for 0.75-1.50"
across most of the FA, with the lowest amounts (0.50-0.75") over
the northern 1/3. Latest 12Z/14 ensembles show good agreement
with >50% chances for 1.00"+ of rainfall for the SE 1/2 of the
CWA, the ECMWF being the farther north with the probs compared
to the GEFS/GEPS. Given most of the CWA in either D1 or D2
drought status, this rain will be beneficial and will pose
little to no flood threat as it will occur over a 6-12 hr
timeframe. The sfc low moves offshore overnight Sunday through
Monday morning, with rain ending from W to E (lingering along
the coast Monday morning). Northerly winds increase on Monday as
the low intensifies rapidly while pushing off the VA-NC coast
on Monday. A N to NNE wind (rather than NW) through much of the
day would tend to keep clouds lingering, with partial clearing
during the aftn. Highs range from the mid 40s along the coast to
the low-mid 50s in the piedmont.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above average temperatures, and fairly limited
rain chances prevail from Tuesday- Friday as an upper ridge
remains in place across the southern tier of the CONUS.

A fairly flat upper level ridge will become anchored from Mexico
to Florida Tue-Thu, shifting east to Florida and the Bahamas
late in the week. An upper level trough over western Canada and
the Pacific NW will push east across the northern tier of the
CONUS through the week into next weekend. This pattern will tend
to limit the potential for any strong backdoor cold fronts and
should allow for much above normal temperatures, especially
Wed-Fri. Highs will be mainly in the 60s to lower 70s (warmest
south), with lows in the 40s and 50s. There are some low-end
rain chances Thu-Fri, though these will depend on how far south
the troughing to our north can push to the south, which is
highly uncertain at this time range. For next weekend and
beyond, the pattern does show signs of breaking down, leading
to temperatures dropping back closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight, with increasing mid-upper
level cloud cover expected. A rain shield will overtake the area
throughout the day tomorrow from west to east. RIC will be the first
to see degraded flight conditions in the morning, with a gradual
expansion to the other more eastern terminals. Rain will continue
through the remainder of the TAF period and into tomorrow night.
CIGs and VIS will become MVFR through the afternoon, with the
potential for IFR CIGS and periods of IFR VIS (especially at the
southern terminals) tomorrow afternoon/evening. Winds will remain
from the SW through tomorrow morning before quickly backing to the
east as an area of low pressure moves up the Carolina coast in the
afternoon.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely Sunday night into early
Monday (much of this IFR-LIFR) in periods of moderate rain and
low CIGs/reduced VSBYs. Gradually improving conditions are
anticipated Monday, but flight restrictions may linger through
at least midday. Northerly winds remain elevated closer to the
coast. Generally dry/VFR Monday afternoon through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

-Sub-SCA conditions persist for the rest of today and tomorrow.

-Increasing winds expected Sunday night and Monday morning. Gale
Watches issued for the coastal waters south of Cape Charles.

Benign marine conditions persist this afternoon as high pressure is
suppressed just off the coast to the south. Latest obs show SW winds
generally 5-10kt, 10-15kt over northern coastal waters. Seas are
around 2ft and waves in the bay/rivers are 1ft or less. These
conditions continue overnight. Light winds expected tomorrow as
well, becoming variable in the afternoon as the high is pushed
further out by an approaching front.

A front passes through the region Sunday night with an area of low
pressure along it to the south. Once the low is offshore, it is
projected to deepen off the local coast before moving NE Monday.
There`s still some discrepancy in the models on how strong the low
gets (the GFS the strongest by far at ~986mb) and therefore some
uncertainty on how strong the NNW winds behind the low get.
Currently forecasting 25-30kt over the coastal waters, 20-25kt over
the bay and Currituck Sound, and 15-20kt over the rivers, peaking in
the hours around sunrise Monday. Could certainly see some 34kt gusts
over the coastal waters late Sunday night and early Monday with the
potential for 35-40kt south of the VA Capes. Local wind probs for
34kt gusts are highest in the those southern waters as well at 45-
50% (25-30% north). Did go ahead and put up a Gale Watch for the
waters south of Cape Charles between 06z-18z Monday. Should be a
pretty brief period of elevated winds, diminishing to sub-SCA by
Monday evening. Seas increase to 4-5ft Monday morning, then 5-7ft by
the afternoon. Waves increase to 2-3ft in the bay, up to 4ft in the
mouth of the bay. Lighter winds forecast for Monday night and
Tuesday as they turn back to the south. Increased southerly flow
then expected Wed ahead of another front, but so far looks like
marginal SCA levels.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...AC/MAM