Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS61 KAKQ 261808
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
208 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- No significant changes/Updated discussions

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Remaining dry through the week. Above normal (but still
seasonable) temperatures prevail through the end of the week
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry through the week, with temperatures
running near to just above normal through the end of the week
into next weekend.

The latest WX analysis indicates an amplified upper pattern,
with deep upper troughing digging across the west coast, an
upper-level ridge in place from the west-central Gulf coast to
the Great Lakes and an upper trough sliding offshore. At the
surface, ~1030 mb high pressure is centered just west of the
local area, bringing seasonably mild temperatures and
light/variable winds.

Not quite as cool tonight, though efficient decoupling under a
weak pressure gradient will still support some upper 30s in the
normally colder spots of rural south-central VA. Lows will range
mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, and mid to upper
40s along the coast. Some patchy fog possible late tonight over
south central VA/interior NE NC.

A weak, dry front is forecast to drop south through the area
tomorrow, veering winds to the N-NE with a modest speed increase
along the coast. High pressure becomes centered north of the
local area Tuesday night through Wednesday, maintaining near-
normal temperatures. The high then anchors off the southern New
England to Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night and Thursday while
low pressure remains suppressed well south near the Bahamas.
With the high offshore, SSW winds trend highs above normal late
in the week, with highs warming well into the 70s Fri/Sat.

Remaining dry into the weekend, as upper ridging builds over
the region. A northern stream shortwave traversing central
Canada will flatten the upper pattern Friday into the weekend.
Halloween looks dry, pleasant, and mild across the region,
though some increasing clouds will be possible ahead of a weak
cold front, and a more unsettled pattern which is looming for
the first half of next week. Trends from 12z/26 probabilistic
models do show increasing potential for light rain as early as
late Sunday into Monday, more likely on Monday. However, this
progressive regime (at least at first) is unlikely to deliver
any substantial drought-busting rain through early November,
with both GEFS and EPS showing a very low probability for 24-hr
QPF AOA 0.50" through at least early next week. Climatologically,
despite ongoing precipitation deficits across much of the area,
and even with no rain prospects on the horizon through Halloween,
none of our climate sites will rank among the top 10 driest
Octobers on record, owing to several past Octobers with monthly
rainfall below 0.50".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

Mainly SKC/VFR across area terminals this afternoon on light W-NW
winds inland RIC and SBY, and N/NE along the coast at PHF, ORF,
and ECG. Remaining mainly clear tonight/early Tuesday, though
some patchy fog again possible mainly across interior southern
VA and NE NC.

Outlook: High pressure builds north of the region Tue, and settles
off to our NE Wed. N-NE winds Tue will become elevated near the
coast at 10-15 kt (generally less than 10 kt inland). Winds
shift to the E at 5-10 kt Wed. Other than some potential for
patchy AM fog, dry WX and VFR conditions continue through late
in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 205 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

Seas will remain elevated across the coastal waters south of Cape
Charles through this evening.

High pressure over the area currently will keep winds at or
below 10 kt through tonight. Seas will remain elevated (5-6 ft)
for the coastal water south of Cape Charles through this evening
and SCAs will remain in effect.

By Tuesday morning, a weak cold front will move through the
area allowing for winds to increase a bit (NNE 10-15 kt) with
similar speeds continuing into Tuesday night. Conditions are
expected to remain sub-SCA through Tuesday night. However, seas
could build back to around 5 ft out around 20 NM by later
Tuesday. After that, benign boating conditions are expected for
the remainder of the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...JDM