Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

067
FXUS61 KAKQ 140958
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
558 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing potential for impactful severe weather across the
region ahead of a strong cold front. The Storm Prediction
Center has most of the area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) on
Monday. All severe hazards (wind, hail, and tornadoes) are
possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and not as windy today and Sunday. Chances for showers and
a few thunderstorms increase Sunday evening into the overnight.

2) Another strong cold front approaches early next week, bringing
the potential for strong to severe storms Monday, with below normal
temperatures to follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and not as windy today and Sunday. Chances
for showers and a few thunderstorms increase Sunday evening into the
overnight.

Occluded low pressure is centered north of Lake Ontario early this
morning. The steep pressure gradient that resulted in very gusty
winds on Friday has finally started to relax. Continued mixing early
this morning has kept temperatures from falling off with most
locations still in the low to mid 50s. Temps may be able to drop a
few more degrees prior to sunrise as winds continue to decrease.
Mostly sunny to start the day today with increasing high level
clouds into the afternoon, mainly across the northern half of the
area. Highs today rise into the 60s for inland areas but stay stuck
in the the mid to upper 50s for the Eastern Shore. Flow turns
onshore tonight with lows falling back into the upper 30s to low/mid
40s. Warming trend continues Sunday with highs in the 60s to low 70s
inland and around 60 degrees for the Eastern Shore. Moisture
increases through the day Sunday with a chance for showers across
the southern third of the area by late afternoon, spreading
northward Sunday evening into the overnight. Forecast soundings show
little in the way of instability overnight but a few rumbles of
thunder are possible. Temperatures will be quite mild Sunday night
with lows only falling into the 50s across the area.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front approaches early next
week, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms Monday,
with below normal temperatures to follow.

All attention turns to Monday and the potential for severe
weather well ahead of and along a very strong cold front that
is forecast to cross the region. The latest guidance continues
to be in excellent agreement showing an extremely robust mid and
upper level trough deepening substantially to our west on
Sunday and moving toward the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A strong
surface low will move over the Midwest Sunday before occluding
over the Great Lakes Sunday evening. A strong cold front/surface
trough will extend to the south of the surface low with
potential for secondary/weaker cyclogenesis along this trough
axis on Monday.

Ahead of the trough/cold front, robust moisture transport will bring
60s dew points northward into the region. Very strong winds aloft
(on the order 120-150 kts) will overspread the region on Monday in
tandem with a 60-80 kt low level jet. Deep layer shear will be
at or above 50 kts which is more than sufficient for strong to
severe thunderstorms. The strengthening surface trough to the
west will promote some backing of the low level flow which will
augment the already impressive deep layer shear. Forecast
soundings/hodographs show very favorable curvature in the low
levels with 0-1 SRH generally on the order of 200-500 m2/s2.

The local area will be squarely in the right entrance region of the
mid and upper level jet on Monday which will provide forcing
for ascent even well ahead of the surface cold front. Accordingly,
hi-res guidance has trended toward greater coverage of showers
and storms in the open warm sector on Monday. The degree of
destabilization remains somewhat in question with widespread
cloud cover and scattered precipitation. However, most guidance
now shows 750-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE which will be more than
enough instability given the extreme kinematic environment in
place. Low level confluence bands well ahead of the front and
favorable jet forcing should prove sufficient for prefrontal
convection/supercells on Monday. If this convection can maintain
a discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, all severe hazards are
on the table, including the potential for tornadoes, some of
which would have the potential to be strong. SPC has outlined a
broad Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for all but the Eastern Shore,
where a Slight Risk (level 2/5) is forecast.

The cold front moves into the area from the west by mid to late
afternoon with an increasing threat for damaging straight line winds
and embedded QLCS tornadoes. The front should translate offshore
during the mid to late evening hours with severe threat ending
from west to east.

The airmass behind this system will be much cooler (actually
trending to well below normal Tue-Wed) as well as significantly
drier. Highs mainly in the 40s Tue-Wed. Most of the area can expect
a hard freeze Tue night/Wed AM as strong >1030mb sfc high builds
overhead, with diminishing winds and lows ranging through the 20s.
Even the coast will likely see at least a light freeze with lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s, the possible exception being the NC OBX.
Gradually trending warmer by late in the week, and remaing dry.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 555 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions are in place across the region this morning. SW
winds remain fairly robust for this time of day, mainly 10-15 kt.
Expect gusts to redevelop at SBY later this morning through mid
to late afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist into Sunday. Shower chances
increase late Sunday/Sunday night, with flight restrictions
possible into early Monday. A strong cold front will bring the
potential for additional flight restrictions and strong to
severe TSRA Monday. Even outside of any storms, strong, gusty
southerly winds prevail into Mon evening. Dry/VFR Tue with
breezy WNW winds, remaining dry Wed with less wind.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front approaches from the west Monday and
  crosses the coast Monday night. Small Craft Advisory
  conditions are likely with gale conditions possible.
  Additionally, there is a risk for strong thunderstorm wind
  gusts.

999mb low pressure is centered N of Lake Ontario early this
morning with a cold front trailing to the SSW across the
Appalachians. The pressure gradient is gradually relaxing across
the Mid-Atlantic coast and the wind is generally 15-20kt with
gusts up to 25 kt for the Ches. Bay and coastal waters N of the
VA/NC border, and 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt elsewhere. Seas
are mainly 3-4ft, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The
trailing cold front crosses the coast later this morning into
the aftn. There is minimal CAA in the wake of the cold front and
sub-SCA conditions are expected today into tonight. An ESE,
then SE wind increases Sunday into Sunday night with 1030+mb
high pressure off the New England coast and strong low pressure
well to the W. SCA conditions are possible in the Ches. Bay for
wind, and potentially for seas in the coastal waters by Sunday
night.

Deepening low pressure lifts NE through the Great Lakes Monday
with a strong cold front approaching from the W, which then
crosses the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night. High-end SCA
conditions are likely, with a period of gale conditions possible
late Monday aftn/evening in southerly flow ahead of the front,
and also briefly in WNW flow immediately behind the front during
the early overnight hours. Modestly strong pressure falls, a
tight pressure gradient, and a 60- 75kt LLJ favor a 3-6hr period
of southerly gales (primarily for the northern coastal waters).
However, the limiting factor will be very stable low-level
lapse rates with a mild and moist airmass overspreading cold
ocean water. Local wind probs depict the greatest probability of
34kt gusts over the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border, and
even a 30-50% chc of 43kt gusts N of Chincoteague.
Additionally, there is a risk for strong tstm wind gusts ahead
of the front. Seas build to 5-8ft S to 9-12ft N Monday into
Monday night, with 3-5ft waves in the Ches. Bay and locally
higher at the mouth of the Bay. More benign marine conditions
are expected by the middle of next week as high pressure settles
across the region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ/KMC