Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

744
FXUS61 KAKQ 210018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
818 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all but the upper
rivers Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts are possible this afternoon
and evening, mainly near and south of the VA/NC border.

2) Potential for strong to severe storms and flooding will return
area-wide on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts are possible
this afternoon and evening, mainly near and south of the VA/NC
border.

The surface front remains stalled along the VA/NC border this
afternoon. Showers and storms have largely been confined south of
the boundary where instability is maximized. The best shear is noted
to the north of the front but enough extends southward into NC to
allow for a few instances of transient rotation in the storms so far
today. However, the main threat from convection today will continue
to favor strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. SPC has trimmed
the Marginal Risk for severe storms to areas roughly along and S of
the US-58 corridor. CAM guidance has been pretty abysmal over the
last few days but several models suggest the potential for
additional showers/storms into central VA this evening into the
overnight as the stalled front finally lifts back to the north. Warm
and muggy conditions expected tonight with lows in the low/mid 70s
and increase dew points behind the frontal passage.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for strong to severe storms and flooding
will return area-wide on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a cold front.

Severe potential ramps up considerably on Tuesday as an upper trough
amplifies over the Great Lakes. Several shortwaves will traverse the
area ahead of the main trough axis. Flow aloft strengthens
considerably by the afternoon hours with 40-50 kt of flow noted at
500mb. Low level moisture also ramps up with PWAT values climbing
back above 2". Instability is a bit more uncertain with clouds
possibly hampering heating to some extent but models still show 2000-
3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the area. Storm mode is also somewhat
uncertain with the potential for a mix of linear segments and semi-
discrete cells. All these factors point to a robust severe wx threat
across the region. SPC has most of the area in a Slight Risk (level
2/5) with a sliver of Enhanced Risk (lvl 3/5) clipping far northern
portions of the MD Eastern Shore. Could see the higher risk area
being shifted a bit south and east in subsequent outlooks pending
greater clarity on degree of cloud cover and storm morphology. As is
typical for Mid-Atlantic July severe setups, the main threat will be
from damaging winds but a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled
out, especially across the N and NE portions of the region where the
shear and low level helicity are progged to be strongest.

The severe threat likely continues into Wednesday, but with the
higher probabilities shifted to the south and east ahead of the cold
front. How convection evolves on Tuesday will also influence the
degree of cloud cover and destabilization potential on Wednesday.
That said, the flow aloft is forecast to remain rather strong. SPC
has a Slight Risk outlined from Richmond south and east with a
Marginal Risk (lvl 1/5) for the remainder of the area.

Despite the ongoing drought conditions, Tuesday and Wednesday both
have the potential for localized flooding, especially in urban and
poor drainage areas. WPC has most of the area in a Slight Risk ERO
on Tuesday and Wednesday with PWAT generally 2-2.25". Decent flow
aloft should keep individual cells moving but cell training could
result in areas of flash flooding. Some drier air finally moves back
into the region Thursday and Friday but some showers and storms will
remain possible, mainly across the southern and southeastern
portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Monday...

Generally VFR conditions at local terminals this evening, though
there is some intermittent MVFR CIGs at ORF and PHF. Could see
continued off and on MVFR through the night, including some MVFR
VSBY inland. Guidance also suggests an area of showers and
storms is possible around and north of RIC later tonight but
confidence in coverage and timing is low. IFR CIGs are also
possible at RIC and SBY toward sunrise but have maintained MVFR
for now. Starting off mainly dry for the daylight hours of
Tuesday but chances for storms quickly ramp up after 18z.
Strong-severe storms are also possible which could bring heavy
rain, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts. Outside of
storms, winds Tuesday likely become gusty out of the SW to 20-25
kt.

Outlook: Rain and storm chances continue into Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Unsettled conditions persist to end the week,
especially SE.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for late Tuesday into
  Wednesday for most of the local marine area.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday, primarily
  during the afternoons and evenings.

Weak high pressure is centered off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast
this aftn. Meanwhile, a stationary front is located near the VA/NC
border. The wind is generally E 10-15kt to the N of the boundary.
Seas are 2-3ft, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The bulk of the
shower/tstm activity is suppressed S of the local waters this aftn.
The front will gradually lift to the N as a warm front tonight with
the wind remaining 10-15kt and gradually shifting from SE to S, then
SW by Tuesday as the warm front lifts to the N of the local area.
The wind steadily builds Tuesday into Wednesday as the pressure
gradient tightens in advance of a cold front well to the NW. A SW
wind around 15kt is forecast for Tuesday morning, increasing to 20-
25kt with gusts to 30kt Tuesday evening through at least Wednesday
morning. Local wind probs for 25kt+ wind gusts peak early Wednesday
morning. SCAs have been issued for most of the marine area aside
from the upper rivers, beginning late Tuesday aftn/early evening.
Seas build to 5-7ft during this time with waves in the bay at 3 to
4ft. Marginal gale conditions are possible for the offshore zone off
the Currituck Outer Banks. However, have opted to hold off given
that there is little to no probability of sustained 34kt wind (40-
60% of 34kt gusts). Widespread showers and tstms, some of which may
be severe, are also expected with the cold front later Tuesday into
Wednesday. Conditions improve behind the front Thursday as the wind
turns to the N, then NE at 10-15kt.

The rip current risk is moderate for the the northern beaches and
low for the southern beaches Tuesday and Wednesday, and likely
moderate for all beaches Thursday with the wind turning to the
NE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ630>632-634-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR/SW
MARINE...AJZ/AC