142
FXUS61 KAKQ 180758
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
358 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
PoPs were updated slightly along the immediate coast Monday,
Wind Advisories were issued for Eastern Currituck County and the
City of Virginia Beach.
Updated Marine and Coastal Flood Discussions coming shortly.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure builds across the region today leading to mainly
dry and cool conditions today.
2) Breezy N to NE winds, and potentially unsettled conditions, are
expected through the middle of next week along the immediate
coast.
3) A long-duration coastal flood event is expected. Coastal
Flood Watches remain in effect for Monday-early Tuesday high
tides across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and
the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure builds across the region today leading
to mainly dry and cool conditions today.
Early this morning, a mid/upper-level trough is located along the
mid-Atlantic coast and will close off just offshore of the OBX this
morning. Meanwhile, 1030+ mb surface high pressure will continue to
build in from the northwest allowing for clear and cool conditions
for much of the FA. Breezy conditions will continue today,
especially along the coast, but winds will be less than yesterday.
Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies today for a majority of the area,
with partly sunny skies across the far E/SE. Despite the full
sunshine, high temperatures today are only expected to top out in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clear and chilly conditions continue
inland tonight with lows dipping back into the upper 30s for
locations west of I-95, lower 40s around metro Richmond, and upper
40s to mid 50s closer to the coast. Similar to this morning, frost
formation is not expected due to a light breeze.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Breezy N to NE winds, and potentially unsettled
conditions, are expected through the middle of next week along the
immediate coast.
Developing low pressure meanders offshore between the mid
Atlantic coast and Bermuda while 1030 mb high pressure remains
anchored north of the area. 00z model guidance, mainly the 3k
NAM and HRRR, continues to show outer rain bands and moisture
rotating around the western periphery of the low back toward the
coast Monday into Tuesday. Slight chance to chance PoPs (~20 to
50%) are in the forecast for NE NC, Hampton Roads, and the
Eastern Shore, while central VA and the Piedmont remain mostly
dry with partly cloudy skies. With the low lingering offshore
and high pressure to our north, persistent breezy conditions
inland and prolonged windy conditions are expected along the
immediate coast. N-NE gusts will average 20 to 25 mph inland and
30 to 45+ mph along the coast, highest over the Virginia Capes
south to the NC Northern Outer Banks. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for Eastern Currituck County through Monday night and the
City of Virginia Beach on Monday. Ensemble consensus indicates
the low will begin a slow east- northeast drift further out to
sea by midweek.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A long-duration coastal flood event is
expected. Coastal Flood Watches remain in effect for Monday`s
high tides across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River,
and the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore.
Model guidance exhibits spread regarding cyclone intensity and
placement, particularly beyond Tuesday. With the cutoff low
detached from the primary jet stream and lacking an upstream
kicker trough, probabilistic ensembles favor a system meandering
offshore through midweek. Gusty N-NE winds will drive building
tidal anomalies over the next few days.
Prolonged onshore flow will drive anomalies to 1 to 3 feet
above normal astronomical tide. Fortunately, the region is
currently in an astronomical neap tide cycle, which will help to
mitigate peak water levels. Even so, widespread minor to
moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tides through
early next week, peaking on Monday. If the low strengthens
further or edges closer to the coast, localized major flooding
cannot be ruled out, though consensus guidance continues to
trend "lower" toward high-end minor to moderate thresholds.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Sunday...
VFR conditions expected at all terminals for the 06Z TAF cycle.
Winds will frequently gust 25-30 kt at ORF/ECG through the
period, and 20-25 kt at all other terminals this afternoon.
SCT-BKN mid and high level clouds will persist at the SE
terminals with mainly SKC at RIC and SBY.
Outlook: MVFR CIGs are possible at the SE terminals (ECG, PHF,
ORF) on Monday with low pressure lingering offshore. In
addition, a few rain showers are possible along the coast.
Otherwise, continued breezy NNE conditions each day through
midweek.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- A long Duration Gale is expected to continue for portions of
the local waters through at least mid-week, as Nor`easter
meanders offshore, with the highest winds across the Ocean
zones from the VA Capes to NE NC.
- There is the potential for Storm force gusts Monday as the Nor`easter
slowly moves north and deepens. However, confidence is too
low for Storm Watches at this time.
- High Surf Advisories are in effect along the coast due to
large breaking waves of 8-14 ft.
Latest surface analysis indicated a coastal low has developed
well offshore of the Carolina coastline with a strong (~1033 mb)
area of high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley. The
pressure gradient between these two features has resulted in
strong NE winds across the local waters with winds generally
25-30 kt with gusts up to 35- 40 kt across most of the area. As
such Gale Warnings remain in effect for most of the area. Winds
were lighter across the upper rivers where SCAs remain in effect
through Tue night.
Models are generally split into two clusters for Monday. The global
models keep the low farther offshore whereas the hi-res models
(HRRR/RAP/ARW/FV3/NAM) keep the low closer to the coast and
therefore have stronger winds. The NAM is the most extreme outlier,
showing Storm conditions across the entire coastal water zones from
Mon into at least early Wed. However, the other CAMs (which only go
out to 00z Tue) show the potential for Storm conditions across the
offshore VA/NC coastal waters and potentially the nearshore NC
coastal waters. This is reflected well with the wind probs for 48 kt
gusts which were around 20-45% across the nearshore NC coastal
waters and around 45-55% across the VA/NC offshore coastal waters.
Therefore, either high-end Gale or low-end Storm conditions are
expected on Mon. A Storm Watch for the offshore waters was
considered. However, given model uncertainty, the marginal winds,
Gale Warnings already in effect, and collaboration with neighboring
offices, opted to hold off for now and see how things trend with the
12z model guidance. If the hi-res models continue to show stronger
winds, an upgrade to either a Storm Warning or Storm Watch is
possible with the best chance across the offshore coastal
waters.
Beyond Mon, uncertainty remains regarding how long Gale conditions
will continue. Most models keep the low lingering offshore through
mid-late week whereas the EURO is the quickest to move the low
farther offshore. In any case, a prolonged period of Gale conditions
is likely to continue through at least mid week and potentially
into mid-late week. For now, have Gale Warnings continuing
across most of the coastal waters, Lower Ches Bay, and Lower
James River through Tue night. However, these will likely need
to be extended in future updates. Gale Warnings across the MD
nearshore coastal waters end at 10 AM this morning with SCA
conditions expected from then until 4 AM Mon. Given high
confidence in the second round of Gale conditions over this
area, have a Gale Watch from 4 AM Mon through Tue night.
Confidence is lower across the middle Ches Bay. Here, Gale
Warnings end at 7 AM this morning with SCAs then expected.
However, there is some potential for a second round of Gale-
force elevated winds Mon. However, given lower confidence than
the coastal waters, have held off on a Gale Watch for now. In
the upper rivers, conditions likely remain SCA through at least
Tue night.
Hazardous seas will continue through the period. The latest
guidance has seas building to 10-15 ft across the nearshore
coastal waters and 15-20 ft seas across the offshore waters by
Mon. Additionally, given the N/NE winds, large breaking waves of
8-14 ft are possible along the coast. As such, High Surf
Advisories remain in effect for all coastal locations. Currently
have High Surf Advisories in effect through 7 AM Wed, however,
these will likely need to be extended in future updates.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning for MDZ024-025.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025.
NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning for NCZ102.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning for VAZ097>100-529>531.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099-100.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098.
Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning for VAZ089-090-524-528.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-631.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632>634-639-652-
654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
ANZ650.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/JDM
MARINE...RMM
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