Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

448
FXUS61 KAKQ 011033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
633 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay for this
afternoon into tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and
lower humidity to start the weekend.

2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and
early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing
shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 243 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average
temperatures, and lower humidity today ahead of an unsettled period.

Low pressure is slowly drifting off the Northeast coast, with a weak
surface high across the local area this morning. Generally light
southerly winds and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are
being observed across the area. Satellite imagery is highlighting
upper-level cirrus spreading across the East Coast that is emanating
off of another low pressure system centered across Illinois. This
trough will be one of the focal points for weather in the coming
days, but dry conditions will continue today. Upper heights are
forecast to build a bit as the ridge and aforementioned surface high
nudge offshore and the low-level flow southerly flow begins to
increase. Highs near 90F with afternoon dew points rising into the
mid-upper 60s will make for a slightly more humid, warmer day than
we have seen the past few days.

KEY MESSAGE 2....A more typical summertime pattern returns by late
this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and
increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing
through early next week.

The pattern becomes more unsettled by Sunday will continue into
early next week as a slow moving upper-level trough approaches from
the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the
north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and
likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda
high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail.
This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday
and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1-
1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered
to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The
highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA
during the afternoon (as the deep moisture arrives here first).
Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening
(though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on
the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area
on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area.
Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage
during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday,
but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the
aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep
moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak
unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a
threat of localized flash flooding each day, but the severe threat
should remain relatively low with these storms. Temperatures dip
down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to
the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. Though not quite as
unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week
will see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
With the decreased coverage forecast, temperatures will return to
near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 633 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning. Light,
generally SE-S winds of ~5 kts or less are being measured, with some
upper cirrus moving across the area. The upper cirrus will remain
across the area through this evening, with some FEW-SCT lower level
clouds developing later this morning into the afternoon. SE-S winds
will continue, but are forecast to increase to 6-12 kts.

Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday night through Sunday morning as high
pressure settles offshore. Shower/tstm chances return on Sunday and
Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger
into Tuesday/Wednesday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible
during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby
restrictions in heavy rain.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
  from this afternoon into the early overnight hours.

- Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into
  Monday ahead of a weakening cold front.

Early morning analysis shows high pressure off the Southeast coast
with surface low pressure and cold front noted over the Midwest.
Winds over the local waters are generally from the S at 5-10 kt.
Waves in the bay are around 1 ft with seas 2 ft. The aforementioned
Midwest low will become vertically aligned with an upper closed low
today, resulting in only slow movement to the east. Guidance
suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure
offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SE
winds over the Ches Bay from this afternoon through the evening
hours. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore
zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are
expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight.
Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SE
flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will
translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure
gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely
Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters.
Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time
to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N).
Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late
Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over
inland areas late Monday into Tuesday.

Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday
and linger well into next week with locally higher
winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...RHR