Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

458
FXUS61 KAKQ 031027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
627 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated full discussion with little to no significant
  forecast changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter
conditions is expected this weekend.

2) Seasonable temperatures and dry next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter
conditions is expected this weekend.

A cold front is currently dropping south through the forecast area
this morning. Winds have shifted to the north behind the front and
areas in southern VA and NE NC will see a similar wind shift as the
front moves through over the next couple of hours. There are a
few showers well behind the front over the Northern Neck and
Eastern Shore, but coverage is quite low due to relatively
absent forcing aloft. There is a larger batch of rain riding ENE
along the I-81 and I-95 corridors N of our CWA. Expect this
precip to gradually drop into our area later this morning and
afternoon, with the highest coverage generally N of a Farmville-
Petersburg- Melfa line. There is a good chance areas in
southern VA and NE NC stay mostly dry today. Temperatures today
will be a far cry from yesterday and may struggle to increase
this afternoon due to modest cool advection and the
clouds/precip. Highs range from the low-mid 60s N to lower-mid
70s S.

A second cold front will approach the area Sunday. Tropical moisture
streaming up between the fronts will bring additional rain to the
area late Sat night through Sunday. The initial batch of widespread
precip likely moves in from the SW after midnight Saturday into
early Sunday morning, with categorical (80%) PoPs spreading E/NE
through the day Sunday. Precip will gradually clear from NW to SE,
first across the W/NW Sunday afternoon and then for the E/SE by
Sunday night. The QPF forecast remains a bit tricky, with some
emerging discrepancies between the hi-res CAMs and the global models
and ensembles. For example, the HRRR and NAMNest both have a minima
in QPF across SE VA and NE NC, whereas the EPS, GEFS, and NBM
continue to depict the highest totals in these areas. At this point,
the QPF forecast shows a bifurcation with an area of higher totals
from the nrn Piedmont into the Northern Neck and another area in far
SE VA and NE NC. Totals up to 1.5" are generally possible, with
locally higher amounts in the above-mentioned areas.
Regardless, there are likely to be some areas that don`t see
much rain owing to difficult-to-predict mesoscale features. The
chance for thunderstorms remains quite low due to cool sfc
temps, but a brief increase in CAPE across the far SE Sunday
afternoon could allow for an embedded storm or two. With clouds
and rain around, am again expecting highs to be a bit below
seasonal norms and ranging from the mid 60s NW to mid 70s SE.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures and dry next week.

A strong area of cool high pressure (1020-1025mb) builds in behind
the second front while subtle troughing sets up aloft. High pressure
remains in control for the bulk of the week, leading to a nice fall
week. Highs will stay in the mid 60s to mid 70s through the week,
which is around the average for this time of year. Chilly overnight
temperatures are expected as well, especially for the piedmont where
temps in the 40s are expected all week. Statistical guidance even
suggests upper 30s in the piedmont for the Wed morning low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Saturday...

Low stratus has arrived at SBY and the VA terminals as of early
this morning, behind a cold front. CIGs are generally hovering
in the 1000-1500 ft range, but ORF has recently dropped to IFR.
While ECG remains VFR, MVFR stratus should arrive by 13z. Low
clouds persist through most of today, with IFR areawide by this
afternoon. LIFR is then possible by the late afternoon/evening
and especially tonight. Off and on rain showers are also in the
forecast today, with isolated showers early this morning,
followed by higher coverage this afternoon. These rain chances
are highest at RIC and SBY through this afternoon, eventually
shifting southward to SE VA and NE NC by this evening and
tonight. VSBY restrictions down to 2-4 SM are also possible in
rain and mist. N-NE ~10 kt winds are expected through this
evening, decreasing to ~5 kt tonight.

Outlook: Rain chances and flight restrictions continue into
Sunday. Conditions gradually dry out Sunday night into Monday
with VFR returning for most of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
  and lower James River today.

- A stronger cold front crosses the waters early next week, and
  likely brings additional Small Craft Advisories for a majority
  of the local waters.

A cold front is pushing S along the Mid-Atlantic coast early this
morning. The wind is shifting to N across the northern tier of the
marine area, and observations immediately N of the local waters are
showing a N wind increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt. Farther
S, the wind remains light and is generally WSW 5-10kt. Seas are 2-
3ft with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The cold front will continue
to push S along the coast early this morning with a shallow CAA
surge developing in the wake of the front. A N wind of 15-20kt with
gusts approaching 25kt is expected to develop across the Ches. Bay
and lower James River where SCAs are in effect today (waves build to
2-4ft). Similar wind speeds are expected for the coastal waters.
However, 25kt local gust probs are 30-40% or less and 25kt sustained
wind probs are negligible. Seas are expected to build to 3-4ft today
in the coastal waters as the wind shifts to N-NNE, and up to 4-5ft
in the offshore waters. Overall, conditions are expected to be near,
but just shy of SCA criteria for the coastal waters. Elsewhere, a N
wind of 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt is expected for the upper
rivers and Currituck Sound. As the day progresses the wind direction
should trend to NNE then NE by later this aftn. The wind becomes
easterly tonight as 1030mb high pressure builds across New England,
and will be locally stronger N of Chincoteague. This could
potentially push some 5ft seas from the offshore waters into the
northern coastal waters.

Sub-SCA conditions return later this aftn and evening (aside from
some elevated seas in the northern coastal waters), and continue
through Monday. A stronger cold front is progged to cross the coast
later Monday followed by a stronger CAA surge Monday night into
Tuesday. SCAs are likely for most of the marine area with a NNE wind
of 20-25kt gusting to near 30kt. Seas are forecast to build to 4-6ft
N to 5-7ft S.

A Moderate Rip Risk is expected at all area beaches today. A
Moderate Rip Risk continues for the northern beaches with a Low Risk
for the southern beaches on Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...