Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

103
FXUS61 KAKQ 161727
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
127 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs

- Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook area has been expanded
  to include all but far southeast Virginia and northeast North
  Carolina. Slight Risk Severe Weather Outlook now includes all
  but coastal MD and our NC counties. Increasing chances for
  showers and storms presenting both a severe and flood risk for
  late this afternoon and evening.

- Aside from some light showers NW of Richmond this morning,
  rain timing has pushed a few hours later today.

- Probabilities for Heat headlines have largely held steady, but
  still look likely over our southern tier of counties,
  including much of Hampton Roads into northeast NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and more humid today with more widespread late day
and evening showers and storms expected. Strong to severe storms
and localized flash flooding will be possible.

2) Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of the next
cold front. Heat Advisories are likely to be needed for Hampton
Roads into Northeast NC on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and more humid today with more
widespread late day and evening showers and storms expected.
Strong to severe storms and localized flash flooding will be
possible.

Another active weather day across the Mid-Atlantic, though model
guidance has trended slightly later with storm onset. The
expansive upper ridge over the southern tier will slowly dampen
today as shortwave energy digs across the Ohio Valley. At the
surface, southerly return flow will push the boundary north as a
warm front, transporting a tropical airmass (PWATs 2.252.4")
back into the region.

Early morning satellite imagery shows an MCV pushing east
across SE OH into southwest Pennsylvania/N WV. Good agreement
across the past few CAM runs that these showers spread east
through sunrise, potentially producing light showers over the VA
Piedmont and northern counties by mid-morning, reaching the
Eastern Shore by early afternoon. Increased cloud cover and
lingering showers will delay diurnal destabilization
temporarily. Farther to the SSW, the front is projected to push
into the Piedmont toward I-95 this afternoon, with MLCAPE values
rising into the 10001500 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon.

Additional spokes of shortwave energy cross the region late
today, likely triggering another round of scattered to numerous
showers and storms after 45 PM into this evening, with strong
to severe storms possible. Deep-layer shear of ~2530
knots decent for mid-August will support multicells and bowing
line segments capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 5060+
mph. While less likely, all modes of severe weather remain
possible, as strong mesoscale convergence along the warm front
and DPVA ahead of the approaching shortwave assist in forcing
locally stronger updrafts. Additionally, E-SE winds along the
warm front and 01 km SRH values of 150200 m2/s2 will maintain
potential rotation and an isolated tornado threat. SPC
highlights most of our area north of the VA/NC line in a Slight
Risk, with a Marginal Risk for coastal Maryland and our North
Carolina counties.

Aside from the severe threat, heavy rainfall is a concern as
steering flow gradually slows this evening. Slow-moving or back-
building storms could result in scattered instances of flash
flooding. WPC maintains a Slight Risk ERO covering much of
central and eastern VA, mainly north of US-460 and west of the
Chesapeake Bay.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday
ahead of the next cold front. Heat Advisories are likely to be
needed for Hampton Roads into Northeast NC on Monday.

Hot, humid conditions look to peak on Monday ahead of an
approaching cold front, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s.
High temperatures combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s will yield heat indices of 105+ across southern/southeastern
portions of the area and 100105 elsewhere. Heat Advisories will
likely be needed for North Carolina counties, Hampton Roads, and
possibly even into south-central Virginia. Some scattered
showers and storms are also expected Monday afternoon/evening
along the lingering frontal boundary. Drier and slightly cooler
conditions arrive for Tuesday through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Sunday...

Rather widespread cloudiness is present across the local area as
of 18z with VFR at all local terminals. A warm front extends
N-S, roughly through the I-95 corridor. This warm front will
gradually push eastward this afternoon and into the evening
hours. The chance for storms this afternoon has become quite
uncertain due to widespread clouds and limited instability. Most
model guidance has pushed these tstm chances back until well
after 00z with some guidance even closer to 06z. Have adjusted
some of the TAFs to reflect this later timing and have
transitioned the PROB30 groups at RIC and SBY to TEMPO groups
in the 00-05z timeframe. Slightly lower chances down toward
ORF/PHF and especially ECG. This later timing also introduces
some uncertainty regarding any strong/severe potential. However,
still could see strong wind gusts, locally heavy rain, and
frequent lightning. Outside of storms, some MVFR CIGs and/or
VSBY could develop overnight. Mainly VFR for the first half of
Monday.

Outlook: Additional showers/storms are possible Monday, with
localized sub-VFR conditions possible. Mainly dry/VFR
conditions return through midweek as high pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and
coastal waters N of Cape Charles this afternoon into tonight due to
increasing southerly winds and building seas.

- Showers and storms are also expected today, some of which could be
strong to severe.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through midday. Winds are
light from the ESE and SE this morning and will become S and
increase this afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to
tighten some as a weak front approaches and Small Craft Advisory
conditions are expected to develop in the Chesapeake Bay this
afternoon and the ocean by the late afternoon/evening hours.
Sustained winds will generally be 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt
(highest N of Cape Charles on the ocean). Seas briefly build to 4-5
ft and will again be highest N of Cape Charles. Waves 3-4 ft on the
Ches Bay. Showers/storms could also produce locally higher winds
late today. Winds and seas subside by mid-morning Monday.
Thereafter, light flow and benign conditions are favored into the
middle and end of next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...JDM/SW