Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

062
FXUS61 KAKQ 251949
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
349 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussions.
-Marginal SVR Risk for Day3 (Wed 5/27).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Numerous showers and storms into this evening, with at least
high chc PoPs continuing overnight. Heavy rainfall is likely in
any storm, with localized flash flooding possible in urban and
flood prone areas.

2) Additional chances for showers and storms capable of heavy
rainfall are expected Tuesday.  and Wednesday.

3) Drier weather returns to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Numerous showers and storms into this evening, with at
least high chc PoPs continuing overnight. Heavy rainfall is
likely in any storm, with localized flash flooding possible in
urban and flood prone areas.

Latest analysis indicates the sfc front is now north of the
CWA, with a weak sfc trough from the TN Valley to the northern
mid-Atlantic, and a WSW flow aloft.  Low level winds are from
the SW (even on the MD eastern shore). There are some breaks in
the clouds, but given a high coverage of showers and tstms, the
sky is mostly cloudy on average. Temperatures are as warm as the
lower 80s as far north as central VA in areas where it is not
currently raining, with readings in the 70s with dew pts around
70F in the rain cooled air. Area 12Z soundings observed PWAT
values from ~1.75" to ~1.85", with 19Z SPC mesoanalysis
depicting PWATs as high as 2.1" in the SE and 1.9-2.0"
elsewhere, indicating that moisture is markedly increased
compared to the past few days. ML CAPE values are ~1500 J/KG in
the SE and 500-1000 J/KG in the NW, allowing for scattered tstm
coverage within the 60-90% coverage of showers.

Heavy rainfall is likely given the deeply- saturated profiles
seen in model soundings, and the consensus from the 12Z HREF
and REFS places the corridor of highest QPF across the SE
through ~22Z, with that region seeing somewhat less QPF after
22Z, as the highest axis of heavy rain shifts to roughly from
the I-85 corridor northeastward into the RIC metro and Northern
Neck. Instantaneous rainfall rates up to 4-5" per hr are being
observed, but there is enough flow aloft to keep the storms
moving, and in general, these higher rates are only lasting for
20-30 minutes at a given location. Combined with antecedent
rainfall conditions that are not favorable for widespread flash
flooding, expect any FFWs to be confined to urban and flood
prone areas if 1-2" falls in a short period, along with any
repeated training of moderate-heavy showers/storms that occurs.
There was additional discussion with WPC on upgrading portions
of the region to a slight risk for excessive rainfall. However,
given the overall flooding threat is mitigated by the dry
antecedent conditions (and with little rainfall Sunday), expect
the flash flood risk to be confined to these aforementioned
locations, and therefore, the marginal risk has been maintained.
The SVR threat is quite limited, but localized wind gusts to
35-45 mph will be possible with a few storms into the evening.

Showers likely persist through the evening and at least the early
overnight hours, with a continued threat of heavy rainfall as
the front to the north is forecast to sag south and enhance the
precip chances beyond the typical early evening timeframe.
However, the thunderstorm potential will be much lower given
dwindling instability later tonight. Warm and humid with lows
mainly from the mid 60s to around 70F.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional chances for showers and storms
capable of heavy rainfall are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

The frontal boundary remains near the area Tuesday, with latest
guidance suggesting it (mostly) lifts back a bit farther N/NE
Tuesday night into early Wednesday, which will focus additional
shower/storm development over the local area. The exact
position of the front will dictate where the heaviest rainfall
falls and also where storms are favored. Surface- based
instability (and storms) are likely along and S of the front,
with much lower storm chances to the N. Model guidance still
varies on the frontal positioning (particularly on Tuesday) with
solutions varying from just N of the area to bisecting our CWA.
Given these uncertainties, a chance for showers/storms has been
maintained for the entire area, highest for southern VA and the
Piedmont and lower from the Northern Neck onto the MD Eastern
Shore. Anomalously high PWATs again favor a heavy rainfall
threat. A stronger storm or two is also possible, but the severe
threat is quite low given meager lapse rates and only modest
shear. The front`s location also has implications on the
temperature forecast. At this point, the warmest temps on
Tuesday are favored from southern VA into NC, though the
gradient will probably be a bit more than currently indicated in
the forecast. On Wed, there is more likely to be a mostly dry
period in the morning/early aftn, with higher PoPs late in the
day. This timing allowing for increased instability, better low
level lapse rates, and somewhat drier air aloft has led to the
issuance of a Day 3 Marginal SVR threat, with 5% probs for
damaging winds as the primary threat. Warmer area- wide
Wednesday with highs into the mid- upper 80s for much of the
area.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier weather returns to end the week.

A cold front will move in from the north Wednesday night, and
gradually push south of the area on Thursday as a trough digs
out of Eastern Canada into the Northeast CONUS. Will linger
some high chc to likely PoPs Wednesday evening (highest SE) in
advance of the front, but after that an influx of drier air
should shut off precip chances into Thursday. Undercut NBM PoPs
a bit on Thursday (still maintaining chc PoPs in the south into
the aftn). Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny and less humid but
due to a well mixed atmosphere, forecast high temperatures
remain well into the 80s Thursday. Friday will be cooler and dry
as high pressure settles from the Great Lakes to the local area with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 F inland, and in the mid 70s
for coastal areas.

There is increased uncertainty by the weekend as another trough digs
out of Canada and potentially interacts with an active southern
stream. However, the latest trends are for a stronger northern
stream to suppress the moisture south. For now, NBM PoPs are 20%
or less across the northern 2/3 of the FA, with 30-40% chances
in the south. High temperatures will be below average by about
5-10 degrees, generally in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Variable flight conditions with scattered to numerous showers/tstms
across the region this aftn. High rain rates have been
periodically reducing VSBYs to 1/2SM to ~2SM. CIGs are mainly
MVFR to low-end VFR (2-4k ft). In addition to heavy rain, brief
gusty winds will be possible,as well as lightning. Outside of
storms, winds remain fairly light from the SW at less than 10
kt. Further degradation to IFR/LIFR is expected again later tonight
with continuing shower chances. SBY is likely to drop as a weak
frontal boundary sags south into the area, but most places have
a good chance at dropping to IFR CIGs after 06Z, lasting through
12-15Z Tuesday.

Outlook: Conditions remain unsettled with off and on showers/storms
bringing periodic sub-VFR conditions Tuesday aftn and again Wed
aftn/evening (Along with early AM CIGs/reduced VSBYs Wed
morning). A more significant cold front pushes through late wed
night/Thursday, with drier air, N winds and VFR conditions
Thursday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the coastal
waters north of Parramore Island through Tuesday morning.

- Sub-SCA SSW winds prevail through tonight, with a weak cold
  front leading to light and variable winds Tuesday, then sub-
  SCA SW winds returning Wednesday.

The stationary front that was draped across the area this morning
has pushed northwards leaving southerly winds 5-10 kt across the
area. Seas are observed 3-4 ft offshore with ~1 ft waves. Showers
with locally heavy rainfall are seen on the radar across most of the
local waters. There isn`t much wind with these showers, although a
few storms may gust to 34 kt, which would be handled with a SMW if
needed. Reduced visbilities for the coastal waters north of
Parramore Island continue this afternoon, albeit slightly improved
from this morning. Local coastal cameras and buoy 44009 camera show
visbilities at or around 2 NM currently. Visibilities for these
northern waters are expected reduce again tonight with light flow
and lingering moisture. As a result, the Marine Dense Fog Advisory
is in effect through early Tuesday morning.

The front will nudge back south overnight, bisecting the area by mid
morning. Winds will remain light, but shift out of the E/NE across
the northern tier of the marine area. The front then lifts back to
the north Tuesday night into Wednesday with light SW flow
developing. Seas in the coastal waters will subside from 3-4ft
initially to 2-3ft by Tuesday and Wednesday, with offshore seas
subsiding from 4-5ft to 3-4ft. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be ~1ft
with light flow, and 1-2ft near the mouth of the Bay.

A stronger cold front moves N-S across the Mid-Atlantic coast
Thursday with the wind becoming northerly, but remaining sub-SCA. A
stronger cold front potentially crosses the local area next weekend
with a N/NE wind developing behind the boundary, which could also
result in elevated seas. SCA conditions are possible in the wake of
this front.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/SW
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...AJZ/KMC