Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

273
FXUS61 KAKQ 161830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
230 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonable conditions continue tonight with unseasonably
warm weather and chances for showers and storms returning late week
and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and comfortable conditions continue tonight with
unseasonably warm weather and chances for showers and storms
returning late week and into the weekend.

1028mb high pressure remains stationed over the Mid-Atlantic with
mostly clear skies noted over the region. An unseasonably strong
(600dm) upper ridge is noted just to our SW. A few cumulus clouds
have developed across the eastern third of the area, primarily near
the Ches Bay and coast. Temperatures have climbed to around seasonal
norms this afternoon with most locations in the upper 70s to low
80s. A few spots in the Piedmont may make it into the mid 80s over
the next hour or two.

High pressure slowly moves offshore this evening and tonight with
low level flow becoming S or SE. It looks like we will get one more
pleasant night with lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
Above average temps return to the region Thursday with highs back
into the upper 80s and low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s near the
coast. A front will drop slowly southward from the Ohio Valley
toward the region with a few showers or storms possible across far
NW portions of the CWA (Louisa and Fluvanna, primarily) during the
afternoon and early evening. Not expecting much coverage or rainfall
from any convection that manages to form on Thursday. A few showers
may linger across the far northern portion of the area into Thursday
evening with overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

The front will cross the area Friday morning as strong high pressure
over the Great Lakes builds southward. Some pre or post-frontal
showers are possible on Friday, mainly over the SW half of the area
but QPF continues to be rather light (0.1 to 0.25"). High temps
range from the mid 80s N to the low 90s S. Mostly dry and somewhat
cooler on Saturday behind the front with highs in the low to mid
80s. The front likely lifts back to the north Sunday into early next
week with increasing deep moisture and chances for diurnal
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. Satellite and
surface observations show some SCT to occasionally BKN CU across
the SE terminals (ORF, PHF, and ECG) with bases 3500-4000 ft.
Winds are between 5-10 kt across the region but direction is
heavily dependent on location with coastal terminals likely to
have sea/bay breeze influence through the rest of the afternoon.
Winds become light and variable tonight with mostly clear skies.
Some fog is possible a low level moisture increases tonight but
low confidence in coverage.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through at least Thursday night.
Scattered showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon-
evening, which could lead to localized instances of sub-VFR
conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions likely prevail into the
upcoming weekend outside of any localized ground fog.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday..

Key Messages:

- Sub SCA conditions are forecast through through Thursday night. A
cold front drops southward Friday with increasing onshore winds, and
possible low-end SCAs.

This afternoon, high pressure (~1028mb) is centered just off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Winds are wind light out of the S-SE, averaging ~5
to 10 knots. Seas are averaging 2 to 3 feet (locally 4 feet well
offshore). Similar conditions are expected overnight into the first
half of Thursday as the high shifts further to the south. Southerly
winds will increase slightly to 10 to 15 knots later Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
Afternoon models have trended quicker with the frontal passage on
Friday, now forecast to cross the waters Friday morning into the
early afternoon. In the wake of the front, winds become N-NW and
average 10 to 15 knots with strong high pressure situated to our
north. Gusts to 20 knots will likely be possible at some sites
across the Chesapeake Bay Friday afternoon-evening, but likely not
frequent enough to warrant SCAs. In addition, local wind probs for
SCA conditions are only hovering around 10 to 15% (max). As we head
into Saturday, winds become NE and remain elevated to around 10 to
15 knots across all waters. Winds become southerly later Saturday
night into Sunday and decrease. A stronger system may impact the
waters during the early to middle portions of next week.

The rip current risk was upgraded to High for the NC beaches today
after coordination with NWS Morehead City due to lifeguard reports.
A Moderate rip current risk will likely continue for the southern
beaches on Thursday, with a low risk across the northern beaches.
The rip current risk likely improves to low at all area beaches on
Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB/LKB