Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

915
FXUS61 KAKQ 060954
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
554 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Full discussion update. No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered
afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely
scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to
continue through the weekend.

High pressure will remain anchored off the Southeast coast through
the weekend. The upper ridge offshore will build westward today with
modest height rises keeping a lid on widespread convection. 00z
models and CAM guidance show the potential for relatively greater
shower and storm chances across northeastern NC early this afternoon
but PoPs remain below 40%. Another area of showers and storms will
likely form west and northwest of the local area along the higher
Blue Ridge terrain by mid to late afternoon. These storms may just
be able to sneak into the far NW and N portions of the area by the
evening but most of the region will be dry.

With lower storm chances, temps rebound to the upper 80s-lower 90s
on today with upper 90s-low 100s heat indices. Similar conditions
are expected Friday into the weekend with some slight height falls
over the local area as the upper ridge offshore retreats a bit to
the SE and a series of weak shortwaves pass by to our N/NW. This
will lead to slightly greater chances for diurnally driven showers
or storms on Friday and Saturday across western and northern
portions of the area but PoPs generally remain aob 40%. A few storms
are possible on Sunday, with the highest precip chances (still only
30-40%) shifting to SE VA/NE NC. Seasonable heat and humidity will
continue through the weekend, with heat indices in the upper 90s-low
100s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 550 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Some IFR CIGs
are noted to the SW of RIC and west of ECG. A brief period of
IFR is possible at ORF over the next hour or two but conditions
should rapidly improve after 12z. SW winds are generally 5-10
kt this morning, closer to 10 kt with gusts 15 kt late morning
through the afternoon. Few to scattered CU are expected as
mixing gets underway through the afternoon. Convective coverage
today is expected to be very sparse but the relative highest
chances are focused at ECG and maybe as far north as ORF this
afternoon. Additional convection is expected to impinge on our
far NW counties this evening and possibly SBY tonight but
confidence in this scenario panning out is very low.


Outlook: A more typical Summer pattern returns for the latter
half of the week and into the weekend. Only isolated
aftn/evening convection is expected on Fri/Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the
  weekend, outside of local thunderstorm influences.

An expansive Bermuda high is the main feature influencing winds this
morning, and marine observation sites are measuring SW of 10-15 kts,
with a few gusts of 15-20 kts. Waves in the Bay are 1-2 ft, and seas
in the nearshore coastal waters are 2-3 ft. The same general
synoptic set up will linger through the weekend, though a few weak
disturbances will move through to our north which could occasionally
tighten the gradient further through Saturday. Sub-SCA S-SW winds
~10-15 kt are forecast to develop each morning (up to 15-20 kts in
the coastal waters), turning S-SE nearshore with seabreeze
circulations each afternoon. As the aforementioned high drifts
closer to the coast, the gradient will relax and winds of ~10 kts or
less are forecast by early next week. Waves in the Bay will remain
between 1-2 ft, with seas in the coastal waters ranging between 2-4
ft. Daily afternoon and evening isolated shower and storm chances
persist into the weekend.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk looks to persist across
the northern beaches through at least Saturday, with a low risk for
the southern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB/NB