Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

114
FXUS61 KAKQ 260736
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
336 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Hot conditions potentially return early next week. Otherwise,
no significant changes.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
tonight from Little Creek to Smith Point.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable humidity continue
today.

2) Unsettled conditions return Thursday through Saturday with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

3) Hot conditions return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable
humidity continue today.

Zonal flow aloft prevails early this morning with weak high
pressure at the surface. Mostly clear early this morning with
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s across most of the
area, and upper 60s/near 70 for coastal NE NC. Zonal flow aloft
will allow for the surface high to slide offshore. The low-level
flow becomes S/SE, which will allow high temperatures to rise
into the mid/upper 80s (lower 80s at the coast). Dewpoints will
increase as well, but overall, humidity levels will remain quite
tolerable for August.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled conditions return Thursday through
Saturday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Global models indicate that surface high pressure settles off
the Southeast coast later today into Thursday and the flow aloft
shifts back to the SW. A slow moving front approaches the area
Thursday, but this boundary may remain NW of the local area
based on the consensus of the 00z/26 guidance. The 00z/26 HREF
is rather unimpressive with respect to convective coverage and
heavy rain threat. Therefore, PoPs have been nudged downward.
The severe threat seems low for Thursday at this time with only
20-25kt of 500mb flow and relatively weak mid-level lapse rates.
The boundary drops SE Thursday night and settles into the
eastern Carolinas and SE VA by Friday, but remains rather
diffuse. There is a strengthening jet core over New England, but
there is some uncertainty as to how well the RRQ of this
feature interacts with the surface boundary. PoPs remain 50-70%
Friday, but this could be a case of generous NBM PPI, and time
will tell how much coverage that CAMs have once we are their
forecast time range. The main threat will be locally heavy rain
from showers/tstms. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall Thursday and Friday, with a Slight Risk creeping into
NE NC Friday , but given the setup, the showers/tstms seem
scattered by nature causing a lower confidence in flooding. The
consensus amongst the 00z/26 models pushes the front S Saturday
with the best shower/tstm chances across SE VA/NE NC, then
trending drier Sunday into early next week with PoPs near to
slightly below climo.

Seasonally hot and humid Thursday through Sunday with high
temperatures primarily in the mid to upper 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot conditions return early next week.

Hot conditions return early next week as a 1.5 st dev 500mb
ridge builds from the Central Plains to the Southeast. NBM high
temperatures Monday through Wednesday are primarily in the upper
80s to lower 80s, with locally mid 90s. However, 850mb
temperatures of 20-22C and 1000-850mb thickness schemes support
highs in the mid to upper 90s. If the hotter temperatures are
realized that will mean deeper mixing, which should allow
dewpoints to drop into the upper 60s/around 70F during peak
heating. Regardless, this would support heat indices into the
lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z/26 TAF
period as high pressure traverses the region. The only exception
would be some patchy shallow ground fog early this morning,
mainly at PHF. A calm to very light and variable wind early this
morning will become S/SE 8-10kt by later this morning and into
the aftn. SCT to occasionally BKN CU are expected by aftn with
bases of 4-5kft. Increasing CI tonight with a light S wind.

Outlook: Shower/tstm chances return Thursday through Saturday
with the greatest chc on Friday. Brief sub-VFR conditions
possible in any showers/tstms. Trending drier and mainly VFR by
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued from this evening
  into tonight for the Chesapeake Bay.

- Benign conditions prevail beyond Thursday morning with S-SW
  flow becoming E-NE by Saturday.

High pressure is situated near the area this morning, with a
wavy frontal boundary well to our south. Winds are light across
the waters and waves/seas are 2 ft or less. Winds become
southerly for all of the area later this morning and then become
S/SSE 10-15 kt by the afternoon. Still expect a brief (~6-9 hr)
period of elevated SSE flow this evening into tonight,
generally for the Chesapeake Bay and nearshore coastal waters
between Parramore Island and the NC/VA border. While marginal,
frequent gusts to 20-25 kt are likely between 23z/7 PM this
evening and 08z/4 AM tonight/early Thursday and have issued
Small Craft Advisories in the bay (minus at the mouth). Seas
should increase to 2-3 ft with 2-3 ft waves in the bay as well.
Winds quickly become sub-SCA later Thursday morning with S 10-15
kt winds developing by the afternoon and evening. SW flow
prevails Friday, with a shift to the E/NE Saturday and then E/SE
Sunday. Seas average 2-3 ft Thursday into the weekend. There
will also be a chance of showers and storms later Thursday and
especially Friday.

Generally low rip current risks expected over the new few days.
The one exception is Thursday where a moderate risk is forecast
for the northern beaches due to ~3 ft nearshore waves and an
8-9 sec dominant period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ632.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW