Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

039
FXUS61 KAKQ 181153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
653 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12z Aviation update. Lowered temperatures a bit once again for
north and northeastern portions of the area on Thursday. While
model signal remains less than clear, discussed weekend coastal
storm in slightly more detail.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer today with mainly dry weather expected. Becoming
breezy this afternoon, with SW winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph.

2) A back door front drops south and southwestward across the
mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. Developing onshore winds will
bring lower temperatures across much of the area, but especially
the VA peninsulas and the VA/MD Lower Eastern Shore.

3) Several disturbances bring the chance for rain back to the
area Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer today with mainly dry weather expected.
Becoming breezy this afternoon, with SW winds gusting to 25 to
30 mph.

Latest surface analysis shows 1024+mb sfc high pressure centered
over the western Atlantic. To the north, low pressure continues
to slide east across the upper midwest toward the Great Lakes,
with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending east across
the interior northeast into the northern mid-Atlantic. Aloft,
low amplitude ridging continues to slide across the Gulf Coast.
Some weak perturbations rounding the top of the ridge have
allowed some high clouds to move back into the region, and those
clouds look to linger through much of the day today. Meanwhile,
SSW winds become gusty this afternoon, allowing temps to rise
well into the 60s for most of the area west of the Ches Bay,
with cooler 50s to near 60 on the Shore. While the vast
majority of the area will be dry today, a shortwave overrunning
the warm front lifting across the region could bring a few
afternoon and early evening passing showers over eastern VA and
the Lower Eastern Shore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A back door front drops south and southwestward
across the mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. Developing onshore
winds will bring lower temperatures across much of the area, but
especially the VA peninsulas and the VA/MD Lower Eastern Shore.

Latest guidance continues to bring the previously referenced
front back south into the area from the northeast Thursday,
bringing cooler marine air inland behind the sinking boundary.
In coordination with neighboring offices, have lowered
temperatures a bit more tomorrow from the inherited forecast,
ranging from mid 40s for the Eastern Shore, northern neck and VA
Peninsulas to the 60s to low 70s for areas roughly along and
south of US 460. Further refinements to temperatures are likely
as we get closer. PoPs also increase tomorrow afternoon and
evening, especially for areas along and north of where the
front eventually stalls, which at this time looks to be near US
460.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Several disturbances bring the chance for rain
back to the area Thursday into the weekend, along with the
potential for a late weekend coastal storm.

The aforementioned front meanders near and south of the local
area Thu night into Friday night, before the trailing cold front
crosses the area early Saturday. Several disturbances aloft
overrunning that boundary will bring periods of rain across the
region Friday into Saturday. Friday`s system looks to mainly
impact the northern half of the area with showers Friday morning
into the afternoon, though 30-50% PoPs for scattered rain
showers Fri/Fri night still look reasonable across southern
third as the front lingers over the region.

The unsettled pattern lingers into the weekend, and as the front
sinks south of the area, additional rounds of rain are possible
on Saturday. Models are coming into general agreement that a
second, stronger disturbance aloft and strengthening coastal
low will develop along that boundary on Sun/Sun night before
tracking ENE off the mid- Atlantic coast and offshore. While
confidence in a storm developing is now high, timing/track and
resultant sensible weather impacts are far less certain. The
latest run of deterministic models each brought precipitation
back closer to the coast Sun night/Monday but are all a bit
flatter, more progressive. For their part, the respective AIFS
runs are similar to previous, but each a bit flatter/weaker
with the developing low. Should this storm come to pass, and
there is increasing signal that it will, there is the potential
for more widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds, especially near the coast.

Model ensemble (GEFS/EPS) snow probabilities have increased a
bit for 1" of snow over eastern VA and the Eastern Shore. While
this remains a rather low-probability scenario, it is somewhat
more feasible given the trend toward a stronger upper low, which
is modeled to briefly close off this weekend over the interior
northeast. Given the marginal thermal profiles, the most likely
scenario remains additional rainfall and a period of gusty
winds later Sun/Sun night. But given the more amplified upper
level trends, this scenario of precipitation ending as some
light snow early Monday over the VA Peninsulas and Delmarva
cannot be completely discounted at this stage and does bear some
watching in the coming days. Should also note that models have
trended toward increased blocking in the northern Atlantic,
portending a chilly start to next week before the Canadian
surface high modifies into the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 AM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions at area terminals will continue to prevail at
all remaining terminals through the 12z TAF period. Increasing
SCT- BKN high clouds expected with CIGs no lower than 8-10 kft
AGL. Light and variable winds at sunrise this morning become
gusty (to 18-22 kt) out of the SW late this morning and this
afternoon. A brief period of LLWS is forecast through mid
morning on Wed at all terminals except for KSBY, which could see
some brief LLWS this evening. Mainly dry today, but a few
passing showers are possible. Chances and any areal coverage
are still too low to merit conclusion at this time. Will re-
evaluate for 18z.

Outlook: Mainly Dry/VFR conditions persist through tonight. A
weak backdoor cold front likely impacts the region Thursday-
Friday, veering winds to the NNE, with showers and flight
restrictions likely by late tonight/early Wed, initially along
the coast, but quickly reaching all terminals by mid-morning Thu.
Additional rounds of rain are likely Thu aftn into this
weekend, as the front returns back north and a series of weak
disturbances overrun the front as it meanders across the
region. A developing coastal low could bring another period of
rain, gusty winds, and flight restrictions to the region on
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories in place for all through this evening and
tonight.

- A backdoor cold front is likely to drop across the local waters
early Thursday with the wind shifting to E-NE.

-Elevated Marine conditions potentially return by the end of the
weekend and early next week.

Early morning analysis shows high pressure off the SE coast and a
low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes region and moving
towards the Northeast. The pressure gradient from this system has
tightened allowing winds to increase out of the SW around 10 kt. In
addition with the increase of winds it has allowed for visibilities
to improve across the northern waters. Therefore, the Marine Dense
Fog Advisory has been allow to expire. Waves across the southern two
ocean zones are continuing to remain elevated around 4 to 6 ft
allowing for the SCA to remain in effect. While north of the Cape
seas remain between 3 to 4 ft and across the bay 1 to 2 ft. Through
the rest of the morning and throughout tonight the high pressure
will move further offshore and the low will track across the northeast.
The pressure gradient from this system will tighten allowing
for winds to increase to ~15kt and 15-20kt for the ocean during
the day. However, due to the nature of the airmass being warm it
will limit low-level mixing resulting in lower gusts.
Regardless, SCA conditions are expected and SCA have been issued
for all waters from 12z today through 00z Thursday for the bay
and through 6z Thursday for the coastal waters. Additionally,
seas will rise through the day due to the wind and are expected
to be between 3 to 5 ft across the ocean zones and 2 to 3 ft
across the bay. By tonight and early Thursday morning the low
will track to the north and a backdoor cold front dropping
across the Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds ware expected to shift ENE
and remain below SCA criteria. Thursday night, the front is
progged to lift north as a warm front. The pressure gradient may
tighten enough to build seas to 4-6ft N of Chincoteague
Thursday night into Friday morning. Trailing cold front drops
across the coast early Saturday. Then, by the end of the
weekend, low pressure is expected to track in vicinity of the
Carolina Coast. Strong SCA conditions are likely with gale
conditions possible for the coastal waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ630>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...AJZ/HET