Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

135
FXUS61 KAKQ 140514
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1214 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with dry weather conditions prevailing through
Saturday night followed by low pressure and widespread rain Sunday
through early Monday. By early to middle next week temperatures warm
above normal with limited chances of precipitation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail
tonight, before moderating Saturday afternoon.

2.) Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into early Monday
bringing potential for widespread beneficial rainfall. With totals
nearing an inch across SE VA & NE NC. By the middle to late next
week temperatures will warm with limited chances of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail
tonight, before moderating Saturday afternoon.

Afternoon WX analysis shows an upper trough situated east of the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast. At the surface, high pressure remains
dominant over the area bringing dry, sunny, and cool weather
conditions. Temperatures across the area are ranging between the
upper 30s and low 40s across the majority of the area with the
exception of the bay side of the Eastern Shore, where temperatures
range in the low to mid 30s due to the NW flow coming off the much
colder bay waters. Through the night high pressure continues to move
over the area before sliding offshore by Saturday morning. This will
allow for skies to remain clear and temperatures to cool into the
low to mid 20s inland and upper 20s along the coast. By tomorrow,
high pressure will be off shore and SW flow returns to the area
allowing for much warmer temperatures to return. Highs are progged
to be in the mid to upper 50s possibly 60F across VA & NC. While
across the MD Eastern Shore temps will reach into the low 50s due to
winds coming off the bay. In addition to the warmer temperatures,
dry conditions will prevail under sunny skies. RH values are
expected to be between 25 to 35% inland and 35-45% along the coast.
However, with the light winds and recent snow melt fire weather
concerns remain low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into early Monday
bringing potential for widespread beneficial rainfall. With totals
nearing an inch across SE VA & NE NC. By the middle to late next
week temperatures will warm with limited chances of rain.


A trough is expected to move south of the area Sunday into Monday.
At the surface, a low pressure is expected to develop to the west
and track across the southern United States Saturday and then move
into our area Sunday morning. Much needed beneficial rainfall is
progged with this system Sunday morning into late Monday. The recent
ensemble 12z/13 ensembles are in some disagreement with one another.
The recent ECMWF has increased probs to 60 to 80% across SE VA and
NE NC and 40 to 60% elsewhere. While the CMC and GEFS have lower
probs and  is suppressed further south. In addition, the recent CAMS
are coming into range with  this system and have also shown drier
solutions. However, they look to be outliers as they are not
handling the ongoing pattern, but trends will continue to be
monitored. Overall, confidence remains high for beneficial rainfall,
especially as fire season commences on February 15th. As of this
forecast update, rain totals are expected to between
.5" to .75" north of I-64 and .75" to 1" with localized higher
totals along the warm front across SE VA & NE NC. Again, trends in
the models will continue to be monitored as any shift in this system
will change rain amounts. Once this system leaves the area Monday
drier and warmer weather conditions are expected to return to the
area. By late next week Fire Weather potential could increase as
rain chances remain low and multiple dry cold fronts could pass
through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period, as high
pressure gradually shifts offshore. Clear skies are observed via
satellite imagery early this morning, along with light and variable
winds. W-SW winds will increase to 5-10 kt this afternoon before
decreasing tonight. SKC will continue until around 00z, as high
clouds begin to build in ahead of the next system.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through tonight. Widespread rain is
likely by Sunday into early Monday with flight restrictions probable.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 105 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through the majority of the
  weekend, as high pressure builds into the region. The next
  system approaches the area Sunday and could bring additional
  headlines by later Sun into Monday.

- Sub-SCA winds return by Tuesday, though seas could remain
  above 5 feet until Tuesday evening.

Latest analysis shows high pressure continuing to build toward the
waters, and N-NW winds have diminished to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20
kt. All SCAs have been allowed to expire. Seas are generally 3-4 ft,
but are up to 5 ft off the coast of NE NC. Decided not to issue an
SCA for the NC coastal waters attm since seas should subside quickly
later this aftn into this evening as winds continue to diminish.

Improving boating conditions are expected tonight and through much
of the weekend as the surface high remains near or over the waters.
Wind speeds on Sat/Sun are forecast to be 5-10 kt. The next round of
SCA conditions is expected to arrive late Sun night and continue
through Mon as a low pressure system moves south of the area. While
the 12z/13 model trends continue to show a slightly more
suppressed/weaker system, NE winds are still expected to increase to
~20 kt in the lower bay and coastal waters S of Cape Charles by
Monday. And with the NE flow, seas should build to 5-6 ft everywhere.
Local wind probabilities on Monday for SCA winds are lower than they
were this morning, with sustained 18 kt wind probs of 40-60% on the
lower bay, and 50-60% probs for 25 kt+ gusts across the SE VA/NE NC
coastal waters.

Waves and seas slowly subside this afternoon and tonight, with 2-3
ft seas/1-2 ft waves expected by midnight. Seas remain no higher
than 2 to occasionally 3 ft through the weekend. As mentioned above,
seas will once again build through the first part of the week, with
building SE swell likely to build seas aoa 5 ft Monday afternoon and
evening. Winds and seas steadily subside Mon night and Tuesday, as
high pressure builds from the SE coast across the local waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...ERI/MAM