Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

568
FXUS61 KAKQ 081034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
634 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue
through Sunday. In addition, heat and humidity will persist through
this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue
through Sunday. In addition, heat and humidity will persist through
this weekend and into early next week.

Early morning weather analysis shows weak SW flow aloft, while at
the surface high pressure offshore continues to remain in control.
GOES Sat imagery shows mostly clear skies across the area this
morning. As for temperatures, low to middle 70s have been noted
along and west of I-95, while to the east temperatures continue to
remain in the upper 70s to low 80s (mainly along the coast). Even
though skies are clear temperatures are not expected to drop much
further (perhaps a degree or two) due to the high pressure offshore
continuing to fetch in warm and humid air. Through the day a normal
summer time pattern will be in place with scattered cumulus clouds
in the afternoon and temperatures  reaching into the low 90s. Dew
points will once again struggle to mix out through the day and
remain in the low to middle 70s. The mix of heat and humidity will
allow Heat Indices to be in the upper 90s and low 100s, but will
remain shy of the 105F Heat Advisory Criteria. In terms of storm
chances and coverage the highest confidence in storms is along and
north of I-64. This is due to where the greatest forcing is expected
as a weak 700mb short wave moves through the area as well as this
area is expected to hit ConvT. At this time, there is low confidence
on severe storms. However, due to the hot and humid airmass in place
a very isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. For
Sunday, the weather pattern will remain quite similar with the
chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Lee Trough, high
terrain, and Sea Breeze in the afternoon. In addition to the showers
and thunderstorms, the heat and humidity will persist with temps
ranging in the low to middle 90s and Heat Indices between the upper
90s and low 100s but again remaining shy of the 105F Heat Advisory
criteria.

By early next week, ensembles continue to hint on a more zonal
pattern across the area with the strongest flow remaining north of
the area. While at the surface high pressure continues to thrive off
the coast continuing to usher in heat and moisture. During the early
to mid-week stretch the chances of showers and storms persist with
the best chance  now possibly being late Tuesday into early
Wednesday morning as a stronger cold front tries to move into the
area. Outside of the daily chances of showers and storms,
temperatures are expected to rise above normal with temperatures
possibly reaching into the lower 90s. With dew points struggling to
mix through the day as the high is offshore they will remain the low
to middle 70s again allowing Heat Indices to be in the low 100s.
Will note there is a possibility that some places could reach Heat
Advisory criteria Monday through Wednesday but confidence at this
time remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 634 AM EDT Saturday...

Offshore high pressure continues to favor VFR conditions at
all terminals. Mostly SKC early this morning with some low level
clouds noted at ECG. However, the latest satellite imagery has
shown them scattering out and IFR conditions are not expected
early this morning. Winds continue to remain out of the SW
between 5-10kt. Chances for showers/storms today will again
mostly be confined N of a RIC-SBY line, but there remains a low
(<30%) chance. Therefore, no tempos or prob30s have been added
at this time to SBY & RIC. SCT CU and SW winds 10-15 kt w/ gusts
up to 20 kt prevail outside of any convection. Tonight VFR
conditions are forecasted and winds will remain between 5-10kt
across the VA an NC terminals but become light and variable
across SBY.


Outlook: The typical late summer pattern continues Sunday into
early next week. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is
expected each day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the
  weekend and into early next week.

Bermuda high pressure remains centered offshore, keeping S-SW flow
across the local waters. Winds are currently 10-15 kt with gusts to
20 kt with 2-3 ft seas (~4 ft well offshore), and ~1-2 ft
waves. The wind is expected to gradually shift to S/SSE late
this aftn and evening due to diurnal seabreeze influences. The
pressure gradient relaxes slightly Sunday into early next week
with a S/SW wind diminishing to ~10kt or less, which will allow
for more of a true sea- breeze with the wind shifting to SE near
the coast during the aftn/early evening hours. Seas through the
forecast period will be 2-3 ft for the coastal waters and 1-2
ft in the Ches. Bay and lower James River. A weakening cold
front or at least a prefrontal trough eventually looks to push
south, getting closer to the local area by midweek Winds may
periodically shift to the W-NW and increase, but any elevated
winds would probably be short-lived.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...KMC/LKB