Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

490
FXUS61 KAKQ 171056
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
656 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion. Added Climate section with record high temp
information.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer today, with a small chance for isolated afternoon and
early evening showers/storms north of Richmond and over the VA
Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore.

2) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures
continuing through Wednesday.

3) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve
for the late week period into the Memorial Day Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer today, with a small chance for isolated
afternoon and early evening showers/storms north of Richmond and
over the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore.

Temperatures continue to ramp up today. A mid-level trough will
drop across the Western CONUS today, driving a building upper-
level ridge over the eastern third of the country. Meanwhile at
the surface, 1024+mb surface high pressure becomes anchored in
the Western Atlantic near Bermuda. Building heights, plenty of
sunshine, and strong/deep mixing will all add up to a very warm
afternoon across the lower Mid-Atlantic region. There remains
strong agreement with models and in-house thickness tools that
highs today climb into the lower 90s inland, with highs in the
mid to upper 80s along the coast with developing afternoon sea
breeze. However, dewpoints mixing out and falling back into the
50s will likely keep the heat index values near or even below
the air temperature.

The REFS and past few runs of the HRRR continue to suggest a
low chance for some isolated convection over central Virginia,
mainly north of Richmond over the VA Northern Neck and the Lower
MD/VA Eastern Shore, given forecast MLCAPE values of ~500-700
j/kg. However, given the previously referenced building heights
and weak PW values across the region, the atmosphere may remain
capped through the afternoon. Certainly, the expectation at this
time is that most areas, unfortunately, will remain dry. That
said, the lee trough just inland may be just enough of a trigger
to allow for an isolated storm or two by 4-6 pm this afternoon,
allowing a lucky few to get in on a late day shower or storm.
For that reason, have maintained the slight chance (20%) PoPs
over the northern third of the area for now. Any showers or
storms should quickly clear out within a few hours of sunset,
allowing for a clearing and mild to warm evening and overnight.
Lows mainly in the 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal
temperatures continuing through Wednesday.

Summer-like heat makes its presence felt across the region for
much of the first half of the upcoming week. Building ridging
and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a hot and dry
first half of the week. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest
broad support for widespread temperatures in the low to mid 90s
each day Monday through Wednesday, with H85 temps maxing out
between 18-20 deg C. The warmest day looks to be Wednesday, with
compressional heating peaking ahead of an approaching cold
front. Overall, there remains a very low 1-3 deg interquartile
range for Max T each day, indicative of very high model
confidence in these temperatures each day. As noted in the first
point above, the strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions
will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by
afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day.
This should help to keep a bit of a lid on truly oppressive
heat index values, as the heat index is not likely to be much
different than the actual temperature.

KEY MESSAGE 3...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern
looks to evolve for the late week period into the Memorial Day
Weekend.

The mid-level trough referenced above lifts across the upper
Midwest into eastern Canada by Wednesday. This will serve to
dampen the east coast heat ridge, while also allowing cool high
pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. it is
this feature that will build east Thursday and Friday, driving a
cold front through the region Thursday into Thursday night.
While LREF probabilities for rainfall >0.50" continue to
unfortunately dwindle, now down to 20-50% per the 00z/17 run,
model spread in 2m temperatures remains >12-15 deg F for Friday
and Saturday across much of the area. This reflects the typical
model struggle with the inland extent of shallow marine layers.
The current forecast favors high-chance to low-end likely PoPs,
which should be mainly stratiform rain and drizzle within the
cool, onshore flow. That onshore flow should knock afternoon
highs back into the 70s over much of the area through the late
week period, with some 60s to low 70s possible in the Piedmont.
Lows mainly in the 50s inland to 60s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions currently across area terminals, with VFR
conditions expected to prevail through the 12z/17 TAF period.
High pressure has moved offshore with winds across the terminals
mainly S or SW around 7-10 kt. Winds inland largely stay SSW
through the day, though expect some onshore winds from
seabreeze effects at ORF by the mid-late afternoon hours (18z
and later). Forecast soundings show some moisture around 5000 ft
by the afternoon, so expect FEW/SCT CU. Some instability is
also noted such that an isolated shower or storm is not out of
the question north of KRIC to KSBY, but confidence remains much
too low to mention in the TAF.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected through midweek, as high pressure
remains in control. South winds each afternoon may gust to 15-20kt
as high pressure remains nearly stationary off the coast. Next
chance of rain not expected until late Wed or Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local
waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds.

Expansive high pressure extends across the Southeast, leading
to southwest winds across the area this morning. Winds across
the local waters have come down a few knots after yesterday
evening`s surge, with marine-based observation sites measuring
10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts across the Bay and 15-20 kts
across the coastal waters. Seas have continued to struggle to
reach their full potential this morning, with only 2-4 ft being
observed in the coastal waters, while the Bay is seeing 1-2 ft
(2-3 ft at the mouth of the Bay). While Small Craft Advisories
are in effect for the VA and MD coastal waters, these will
likely be dropped with the next Coastal Waters Forecast update
unless measured wave heights start to rise. Guidance does
suggest they will start to come down over the next few hours
anyways, as winds continue to trend down.

Through mid-week, high pressure will settle into a typical
summertime Bermuda High configuration. Winds remain primarily
SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late-
afternoon nearshore seabreeze. The afternoon breeze will likely
bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower
Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before
winds veer back offshore and diminish through the overnight.
Expect generally benign marine conditions to prevail through
midweek. The next cold front looks to cross the waters some
time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week.
At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the
front, only brief marginal SCA conditions are possible and
conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

Record High Temps for 5/17 - 5/20

                 Record     Record     Record     Record
                High/Year  High/Year  High/Year  High/Year
Location          5/17       5/18        5/19       5/20
--------          ----      -----      ------     ------
Richmond        94 (1974)  95 (1962)  97 (1962)  97 (2022)
Norfolk         94 (2017)  95 (1877)  96 (1880)  98 (1996)
Salisbury       91 (2017)  96 (1911)  97 (2011)  98 (1911)
Eliz. City      95 (1941)  93 (1987)  95 (1996)  98 (1996)


Record High Min Temps for 5/17 - 5/20

                 Record     Record     Record     Record
                  High       High       High       High
                Min T/Year Min T/Year  Min T/Year Min T/Year
Location          5/17       5/18        5/19       5/20
--------          ----      -----      ------     ------
Richmond        69 (1990)  72 (2015)  71 (1997)  71 (2018)
Norfolk         72 (2018)  75 (1995)  72 (2017)  73 (1996)
Salisbury       69 (1974)  71 (1953)  70 (1929)  70 (2018)
Eliz. City      70 (2018)  73 (1995)  72 (2018)  73 (2018)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...NB/JAO
CLIMATE...MAM