Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

417
FXUS61 KAKQ 151819
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
219 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. Rain chances increased
slightly on Friday ahead of a cold front. Otherwise, no
significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonable conditions continue through Wednesday
night, with unseasonably hot weather and chances for showers and
storms returning later this week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable conditions continue through
Wednesday night, with unseasonably hot weather and chances for
showers and storms returning later this week into the weekend.

This afternoon, ~1029mb high pressure is centered over New England,
ridging southward into the local area. A refreshingly dry and
comfortable airmass has settled over the region, with dewpoints this
afternoon in the 50s. Visible satellite shows a scattered cumulus
deck across eastern portions of the area, with clear skies inland.
High temperatures this afternoon will be near to slightly below
average, generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. High
pressure settles over the area tonight, leading to light winds,
mainly clear skies, and another night of excellent radiational
cooling. Low temperatures will drop into the 50s inland, with some
pockets of lower 50s in the typically cooler spots. Would also not
be surprised to see a few upper 40s readings. Closer to the coast,
lows will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

High pressure will begin to settle SW of the local area over the
Carolinas on Wednesday. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on
Wednesday compared to today, ranging from the mid (locally upper
80s) inland to the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast under a
mostly sunny sky. Another cool night Wednesday night with lows
dipping back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. A warm up commences on
Thursday, along with an influx of slightly more humid air, ahead of
an approaching cold front from the NW. Seasonably hot on Thursday
with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and low to
mid 80s along the immediate coast.

The upper ridge currently centered over the Tennessee Valley well
center further to the SW later this week, allowing for a cold front
to approach the local area on Friday. Scattered showers and storms
will be possible along and ahead of this front, but severe weather
is not anticipated at this time. The front likely stalls south of
the area Friday night into Saturday before lifting back to the north
as a warm front later in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail at all sites through the 18z/15 forecast
period. Fair weather CU with bases (4-5kft) have developed closer to
the coast, with mainly SKC skies inland. Winds are out of the E-NE
~8-12 knots closer to the coast, with locally higher gusts. Any
clouds diminish after sunset with generally light and variable winds
overnight as high pressure builds overhead. Locally patchy ground
fog is possible, but not expected to impact any TAF sites. SKC skies
and light winds are expected through Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through at least Thursday night.
Scattered showers and storms develop Friday afternoon-evening, which
could lead to localized instances of sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise,
VFR conditions likely prevails into the upcoming weekend outside of
any localized ground fog.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Sub SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week. A
  front drops southward late Friday with increasing onshore winds.

Surface high pressure is slowly drifting offshore in New England and
eastern Canada this afternoon. Winds are generally NE 5-10 kt but
are slightly stronger across the far southern waters where the
pressure gradient is a bit steeper. Waves have relaxed to 1-2 ft in
the bay with seas 2-4 ft N and 3-5 ft S. SCA headlines remain in
effect for the ocean south of the VA/NC border. Decided to trim the
end time to 4 PM based on observational trends so far this afternoon
with buoys hovering in the 4.3-4.6 ft range as of 2 PM. The sfc high
is forecast to drift south and be nearly overhead of the local
waters Wed-Thu, with winds shifting to the E-SE and continuing
around 5-10 kt. Seas are expected to subside to 2-3 ft by Thursday,
with sub-SCA conditions continuing Friday. For the weekend, the 12z
models still show some enhanced onshore flow behind a front Friday
night into Saturday with strong high pressure to the north again.
Winds are mainly in the 10-15 kt range and primarily for the
nearshore zones and into the southern Ches Bay. However, it doesn`t
take much in the way of dry/cool air to result SCA conditions this
time of year with very warm local waters. Will continue to watch
this period in subsequent forecast cycles.

Seas are expected to continue to diminish this evening and
Wednesday. There is a Moderate Rip Risk in effect for the southern
beaches Wednesday and Thursday as swell energy slowly subsides. A
Low Rip Risk expected for all area beaches on Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR