Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

277
FXUS61 KAKQ 311828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
228 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Marginal (Level 1 out 5) Risk for severe storms has been
expanded southward Wednesday afternoon and evening, covering
roughly the northern third of the forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm this week with even a few record highs possible. Mainly
dry weather outside of daily isolated to scattered
shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday.

2) A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms
Easter Sunday.

3) Increased fire danger conditions continue into Wednesday
across portions of interior northeast North Carolina.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm this week with even a few record highs
possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to
scattered shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday through
Saturday.

High pressure is well offshore of the area this afternoon, with deep-
layer SW flow over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. A building ridge
aloft and increasing thicknesses have led to warm temperatures so
far this afternoon. Temps likely increase a few more degrees over
the next few hours, yielding highs in the low to potentially mid
80s. A touch cooler on the Eastern Shore due to the flow off the
cooler Chesapeake Bay waters. Winds again remain on the breezy side,
with southwesterly wind gusts up to 30 mph. Mostly clear tonight
with very mild lows in the 60s.

The ridge builds further into Wednesday as a potent shortwave ejects
out of the Rocky Mountains. This will support very warm
temperatures. There is some potential for tying/exceeding record
highs at most climate sites, with Norfolk currently looking most
likely. At the surface, an expansive stationary front is expected to
range from the northern Mid-Alantic westward into the Intermountain
West. Most models show the aforementioned boundary dropping a bit
southward during the second half of Wednesday. Additionally, a sfc
trough will likely be present just E of the higher terrain of WV and
VA. This is expected to initiate widely scattered showers and storms
Wednesday afternoon to our W. Depending on exact storm-scale
processes and associated boundary interactions, some of this
activity should spread eastward into the VA Piedmont and MD Eastern
Shore by the evening hours. Main limitations to stronger/widespread
convective activity include: 1) neutral to slightly positive height
tendencies, 2) lack of appreciable mid/upper-level forcing, and 3) a
potential capping inversion, especially S. Regardless, some CAPE and
shear will be present, which could support a stronger storm or two.
With most CAMs now showing scattered convective coverage, SPC has
expanded the previous Marginal (level 1 out 5) Risk southward to
include roughly the northern third of the forecast area (including
nrn portions of the RIC metro). Damaging winds appear to be the
primary threat due to steep low-level lapse rates, though marginally
severe hail could also occur with moderate shear in the mid levels.

The sfc boundary advances further N Thursday and remains to our
N through Saturday. Therefore, the probability for any
measurable precip is quite low and generally confined to the far
W and N, mainly in the form of a rogue shower/storm approaching
from the W. In terms of temps, most areas should solidly warm
into the 80s Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. A backdoor cold
front will reside on the doorstep of the MD Eastern Shore
Thursday. Most guidance keeps the cooler airmass just to the NE,
but still expect locally cooler conditions here and especially
at the immediate coast. Otherwise, widespread warmth is expected
areawide.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or
thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

The ridge is likely to break down later Easter Weekend as a low
pressure system strengthens over the Northern Plains/Great Lakes
Region, sending a cold front our way. Timing details will likely
change, but the current consensus depicts a line of showers or
storms moving through Sunday evening into Sunday night. With the
strength of the front, cannot rule out the potential for strong to
severe storms. Machine-learning/AI models highlight at least a low-
end potential for a few stronger storms. Be sure to stay tuned to
the latest forecast if you have outdoor activities planned for the
holiday. Ahead of the front, temps potentially warm into the 80s,
though the temp forecast is closely tied to the frontal timing.
Temperatures fall back into the 50s and 60s on Monday in the wake of
the front.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Increased fire danger conditions continue into
Wednesday across portions of interior northeast North Carolina.

The combination of relative humidity values in the 35 to 45 percent
range, dry fine fuels, ongoing moderate to severe drought, and wind
gusts up to 20 mph will result in an increased risk for the rapid
spread of wildfires today across portions of interior northeast
North Carolina west of the Chowan River. This threat continues into
Wednesday and the IFD will be reissued for these same areas once the
current IFD expires at 7 PM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 18z/31 TAF period, with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and no rain chances
forecast. Main concern is again the gusty SW winds, with wind
speeds averaging around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. While the
gustiness may subside some tonight, expect winds to remain
elevated in the 10-15 kt range tonight, along with LLWS at all
terminals except ECG. Winds will probably be a bit less gusty on
Wednesday.

Outlook: High pressure remains offshore through
Wednesday with SW flow continuing. Rain chances have diminished
Wednesday through Saturday and VFR conditions are likely to
continue other than the chance for periodic flight restrictions
in scattered showers/storms Wednesday late afternoon into
Wednesday night (mainly for northern terminals). Isolated
afternoon showers/storms will also be possible Thursday through
Saturday. A better chance for widespread showers is expected
along a cold front Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions expected during the day, especially close to
  land, through at least mid week.

- An additional round of S to SW surge is expected tonight.
  Marginal SCA surges, mainly in the Chesapeake Bay, are
  possible Wednesday into Thursday and Thursday into Friday as
  well.

- Small Craft Advisories have been maintained for tonight for
  the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and northern coastal waters.

Expansive high pressure extends from the Central North Atlantic
across the Southeast this afternoon. Meanwhile, a low pressure system
is move across the Great Lakes region. The gradient remains
tightened between these two features, with southwesterly flow
prevailing this afternoon. With solid mixing occuring over land, the
Rivers and portions of the Bay are seeing winds of around 20 kts
with gusts of generally 20-25 kts. In the coastal waters, winds are
sustained at 15-20 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. With the SW flow,
waves/seas have been under performing with observations across the
Bay between 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft seas being measured in the coastal
waters.

Wind speeds, mainly across the coastal waters, will remain marginal
though our in-house probs do highlight a good chance for 25kt+ wind
gusts overnight in the northern coastal waters. Have decided to
leave out waters south of Parramore Island for now, but this will be
revisited this evening to see if an SCA expansion is necessary. While
the aforementioned low will lift northeastward by tomorrow, the high
will remain parked in the central North Atlantic through a majority
of the week, leading to a prolonged period of S-SW flow. The
gradient will relax some, so winds will not be quite as strong in
the coming days. Additional overnight surges are possible Wednesday
night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday, but look to be
marginal at this time, mainly for the Bay. Otherwise, benign marine
conditions through the week. The next best chance for SCA conditions
comes late this weekend as a front moves through the local
waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs through Saturday, 4/4. The best potential for
record highs is tomorrow, 4/1 at Norfolk and Salisbury where
current records are only in the lower 80s.

Richmond:           Record High:

Tue (3/31)          90/1938
Wed (4/1)           88/1978
Thu (4/2)           89/1967
Fri (4/3)           93/1963
Sat (4/4)           87/2011

Norfolk:            Record High:

Tue (3/31)          85/1938
Wed (4/1)           83/2016
Thu (4/2)           87/1967
Fri (4/3)           91/1963
Sat (4/4)           86/2025

Salisbury:          Record High:

Tue (3/31)          82/1945
Wed (4/1)           83/1978
Thu (4/2)           85/1967
Fri (4/3)           86/1963
Sat (4/4)           83/1999

Elizabeth City:     Record High:

Tue (3/31)          86/1998
Wed (4/1)           84/2024
Thu (4/2)           86/2014
Fri (4/3)           89/1967
Sat (4/4)           88/2025

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012-
     013-030.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...KMC/NB
CLIMATE...AJB