Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

599
FXUS61 KAKQ 211741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1241 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing confidence for a major winter storm and very cold temps
this weekend, though significant uncertainties remain regarding
coverage, timing, and precip type. Lower chances for wintry
weather on Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chances for a major winter storm impacting the region remain
high, but confidence is still low in regards to specific
precipitation types. Users should continue to keep a very close
eye on the forecast over the coming days.

2) A prolonged period of very cold temperatures is increasingly
likely from Saturday into at least the middle of next week with
the potential for temperatures to remain below freezing for
several days.

3) A light wintry mix is possible on Friday, however,
confidence is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chances for a major winter storm impacting the
region remain high, but confidence is still low in regards to
specific precipitation types. Users should continue to keep a
very close eye on the forecast over the coming days.

Overnight models/ensembles have thrown a significant amount of
uncertainty into the forecast, especially in regards to
precipitation types.

What we know so far:

1) Surface cold air: There will be a very strong push of low-
level CAA Saturday, with 850-925mb still forecast to drop to -5
to -15C across the area as very strong, ~1045+mb high pressure
builds into the Midwest. This means that very cold air will be
in place at the surface (at least initially) with temperatures
in the teens to lower 20s across the area Saturday AM.

2) Favorable upper pattern: The upper pattern is favorable for
an active storm track and a major winter storm, with a strong
Alaskan ridge, an active/amplified southern stream over the S/SW
CONUS, and troughing to our north. This will allow for Gulf
moisture to interact with the cold Arctic air.

3) Plentiful moisture: 00z Deterministic/ensembles all show a
widespread 1.0-2.0" of QPF across the local area.

What we are still unsure of:

1) Precipitation types: This is where 00z guidance has really
thrown a bit of a wrench into the forecast. All of the overnight
model runs (to an extent) are trying to amplify the system as
well as bring the low closer to the coast, ultimately drawing
more mid-level warmer air into the local area (especially
compared to earlier guidance). The ECMWF/Canadian (and
respective ensembles) are the most extreme with this solution,
bringing an initial burst of snow at the onset of the event and
then changing the majority of the area over to either sleet or
freezing rain...with the ECMWF being heavier on the freezing
rain and the Canadian heavier on the sleet. A more amplified
system will also allow for plain rain closer to the coast and
across SE VA and NE NC. The 00z GFS/GEFS also brings warmer air
at the mid-level, but not as significant as the ECMWF and
Canadian. Still, this would allow for sleet to mix in across
much of the southeastern half of the forecast area, with
freezing rain to plain rain across the far southeast and
primarily snow further to the NW. The precipitation type
forecast will likely change (potentially dramatically) on future
forecasts depending on the trends in the guidance.

2) Timing: Confidence is starting to increase in regards to
timing, but there are still differences amongst the models. The
latest thinking is that precipitation overspreads the area
Saturday afternoon-evening, lingering through much of the day
Sunday, before coming to an end Sunday night or early Monday
morning.

Snow Probs:

As you would expect (based on the latest guidance) the highest
snow probabilities have shifted north, with the EPS showing
~40-80% chance for >= 6" and ~30-60% chance for >= 12" focused
across the northern half of the area. The GEFS is a bit further
south with the highest snow probs, but still focused across the
northern half of the forecast area.

In summary, there is continued, increasing confidence in a
major winter storm for the entire area. Exact details regarding
precip type, timing, and coverage remain quite uncertain at this
time and should be resolved over the next few days. Stay tuned!


KEY MESSAGE 2...A prolonged period of very cold temperatures is
increasingly likely from Saturday into at least the middle of
next week with the potential for temperatures to remain below
freezing for several days.

A brief warmup is expected through late week before the arctic
cold front pushes through Friday. A very strong Canadian high
(~1048mb) builds down from the northern Plains into the Midwest
Friday into Saturday. Additionally, behind the weekend system, a
large trough builds into the region through next week. This
combination (along with any snowpack) will allow for very cold
temperatures to continue from Saturday through at least the
middle of next week. Highs may remain below freezing for an
extended period of time from Friday night through Tuesday night
(maybe even longer) with extended model guidance showing highs
in the 30s through late next week. Meanwhile, lows in the low-
mid teens inland (lower 20s along the coast) Friday night, low-
mid teens inland and low-mid 20s along the coast Saturday night,
lower teens W to mid 20s E Sunday night, and low-mid single
digits Monday night are forecast. However, if some of the higher
snowfall totals are realized, overnight lows in the single
digits to potentially below 0F will be possible (potentially for
a few nights). That doesn`t even factor in the wind chill which
could be below zero. This prolonged period of very cold
temperatures behind the winter storm could be quite dangerous
for those without power.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A light wintry mix is possible on Friday,
however, confidence is low.

While all eyes are on the weekend system (and rightfully so),
it`s still worth mentioning that a light period of winter
weather is possible on Friday as well. Overnight model guidance
has backed off a bit on this possibility compared to earlier. In
addition, given that this is cold air chasing moisture,
confidence remains low in any winter weather on Friday.
Nevertheless, will maintain a chance for snow or rain/snow mix
NW of Richmond Friday afternoon, spreading SE into Friday
evening. Little to no accumulation is expected with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/21 TAF period. High pressure
is situated just offshore this afternoon. A dry cold front will
bring increased sky coverage overnight, but not expecting low
CIGs due to overall lack of moisture. Breezy southerly winds
this afternoon diminish overnight and turn toward the SW. Winds
become more westerly tomorrow afternoon behind the front. LLWS
is also expected for most of the terminals starting late this
evening into the overnight hours, with the exception of perhaps
ECG.

Outlook: Low-end precip chances possible Friday. Winter weather
is likely at all terminals this weekend, but it is too early
for specifics, though an extended period of degraded flight
conditions is becoming increasingly likely.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory issued for the northern coastal waters
  tonight.

- Increasing potential for a stronger system to impact the waters
  this weekend with elevated winds and seas.

1034mb high pressure is centered over the Delmarva, resulting in
erratic winds around 5 kt across the waters this morning. Waves and
seas are generally around 1 foot. High pressure moves offshore later
today, allowing winds to become SW and increase to 10-15 kt by mid
afternoon. A period of SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt is
expected overnight for the northern coastal waters. After
coordination with neighboring offices, have raised SCA flags north
of Parramore Island this evening and tonight, mainly for seas
building 3-5 ft (highest well offshore), but a few gusts >25 kt are
possible. A brief period of SCA winds is also possible N of Windmill
Pt in the Ches Bay but expect this to short-lived so will hold off
on headlines for now. SW winds decrease Thursday morning and shift
to the west through the daylight hours ahead of the next front. The
front is forecast to cross the waters Thursday night with N winds 5-
10 kt expected on Friday. Cold advection strengthens Friday night as
very strong high pressure dives SE out of the upper Midwest. Strong
SCA or gale conditions are possible Friday night into Saturday. A
period of weaker winds is forecast to follow for the daylight hours
of Saturday as cold advection abates. Low pressure is forecast to
form along the stalled front south of the area Saturday night into
Sunday with a steepening pressure gradient leading to another period
of strong NE winds. This period also has the potential for strong
SCAs or gales. Seas will build along with the winds, likely peaking
in the 6-9 ft range on Sunday. Very cold air will be in place this
weekend into next week, will have to keep a close eye on the
potential for freezing spray during this period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ630-631-650-652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RHR