Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

429
FXUS61 KAKQ 110521
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1221 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in appreciable rainfall late this week continues to
decrease. Meanwhile, confidence in the first widespread sub-
freezing nights of the season this weekend continues to
increase.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week.

2) A strong cold front brings chances for showers Thursday-Friday,
but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler
temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing
temperatures likely inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1220 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week.

Temperatures as of 12 PM have warmed into the mid-upper 60s for
most of the area. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
are expected under clear skies with a light SW wind. Not as
cold tonight with lows in the low-mid 40s for most. Another
seasonably mild day is on the way for Wednesday with sky cover
and temperatures very similar to today. However, unlike today,
clouds will likely gradually increase in coverage late in the
day as low pressure begins to take shape well NW of the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for showers
Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much
cooler temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing
temperatures likely inland.

A big change remains on the horizon as we approach late week. A
shortwave trough is forecast to dive southward out of the north-
central CONUS Wednesday, with a larger longwave trough and embedded
upper low setting up shop over most of the eastern CONUS by Thursday
and Friday. While isolated to scattered showers are possible
Thursday and Friday, confidence is decreasing. PoPs have lowered to
25-40% along and north of I-64 and less than 25% south of I-64 on
Thursday and 15-20% only across the Eastern Shore on Friday. The 12z
GEFS only has a 20-40% chance for greater than 0.1" of rain with
negligible probs for greater than 0.5" of rain. Meanwhile, the
6z EPS is similar with generally a 30-50% chance for greater
than 0.1" of rain and negligible probs for greater than 0.5". As
such, the main focus will be the much cooler temperatures that
overspread the area behind the associated frontal passage as the
anomalously strong trough moves into the region. Thursday looks
to be the last mild day for a while with pre-frontal highs in
the mid-upper 60s for most and around 70F SE. A series of cold
fronts then crosses the local area Thursday evening and
overnight, bringing much cooler temps by Friday. At this time,
forecast highs Friday are only in the 50s. The large upper
trough remains parked over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday,
and this still looks like the coolest day of the period. Highs
Sat are only expected to reach the lower 50s for most of the
area with upper 40s possible across the far northern portions of
the area (especially the lower MD Eastern Shore). These cool
temps continue into early next week. Overnight lows will also be
much cooler with lows in the upper 20s to around freezing for
most locations away from the coast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
nights. Subfreezing temperatures may continue (for lows) Monday
and Tuesday nights as well. As such, the growing season looks to
be ending shortly for most areas. Will likely need a Freeze
Watch as we get closer to the weekend. Gusty NW winds could make
these temps feel even chillier.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1220 AM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. SCT-BKN high
clouds increase today into tonight, particularly late in the
period. Light and variable winds are expected this morning,
becoming SE ~5 kt late this morning and afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through at
least Thursday morning. A cold front approaches from the west
Thursday, with showers possible by Thursday, potentially
lingering into Friday. Some short- lived sub-VFR conditions are
possible with the frontal passage, along with some gusty NW
winds and markedly cooler conditions behind the front for Friday
and the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 155 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely late Thursday into
Saturday as northwest winds increase behind a strong cold front.

- Occasional gale-force gusts are possible Saturday, especially over
the offshore coastal waters, but confidence in frequent gale
conditions remains low.

Generally benign marine conditions are expected through tomorrow as
a weak front crosses the waters tonight. S-SW winds are averaging 10
to 15 knots this afternoon, and will become northerly in the wake of
the front tonight. High pressure briefly returns for tomorrow,
leading to light easterly flow (~5 to 10 knots) over the waters.
Seas will average 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to
2 feet.

A stronger cold front crosses the waters late Thursday into Friday,
with northwest winds increasing in its wake as CAA and a tightening
pressure gradient develop across the region. Winds increase to 20 to
25 knots with gusts to 30 knots Friday into Saturday, with the
strongest winds likely expected Saturday morning into the afternoon.
Some gusts to 35 knots are possible in the 20-60 nm coastal waters.
The latest GFS/ECMWF generally show 925 mb winds peaking around ~25
to 30 knots Saturday morning, supporting at least widespread SCA
conditions. In regards to probabilities for Gale force gusts, the
12z EPS remains the highest with 40-60% chances for gusts in excess
of 34 knots, while the local wind probs, and especially the GEFS,
are lower. The highest probabilities are focused across the 20-
60 nm coastal waters. Winds remain elevated into Saturday
night, but gradually begin to diminish Sunday into early next
week as high pressure returns.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RMM/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB