Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

040
FXUS61 KAKQ 121917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
317 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion. Snow amounts raised to locally 1", but in
general otherwise the forecast is unchanged through the weekend.
Seeing increasing chances that some strong to SVR storms will be
possible Monday.


Gales and SCAs extended in time a few hrs longer into the
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snow, and sleet (with mainly rain far SE) comes to an end before
sunset, with local snow accumulation up to 1 inch on grassy
surfaces across the northern tier. Otherwise, dry with seasonable
temperatures Friday- Saturday.

2) Another strong cold front approaches early next week, bringing
the potential for strong to severe storms Monday, with below
normal temperatures to follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Snow, and sleet (with mainly rain far SE) comes
to an end before sunset, with local snow accumulation up to 1 inch
on grassy surfaces across the northern tier. Otherwise, dry
with seasonable temperatures Friday- Saturday.

A potent upper level trough with an embedded shortwave is
currently passing through the local area, and will push off to
the NE by early this evening. At the sfc, low pressure and sfc
cold front is now across eastern NC, just south of the Albemarle
sound. Northerly winds prevail area-wide, with the main precip
shield starting to come to an end across the far west, but
ongoing elsewhere. Strong enough dynamics allowed the cold air
aloft to overcome the warm near sfc layer, with SN/IP across
central VA over the past few hrs, with that changeover at the
AKQ office currently and spreading east to the coast over the
next 1-2 hrs. Sfc temperatures have remained at or above
freezing, dropping to 32-34F, enough to accumulate local amounts up
to 1" on the grass over approximately the northern 1/2 of the
CWA. SPS` have been issued and will potentially be expanded
eastward to highlight light accumulations, but overall impacts
are still minimal (far too low for Winter WX Advisories). The
precip will come to an end rather quickly from W to E before
sunset, with temperatures likely to rise a few degrees while
this occurs. Becoming mostly clear tonight, with evening temps
above freezing, but then dropping into the upper 20s to lower
30s overnight (locally warmer at the coast in the far SE).

Seasonably cool and dry weather returns Friday, with highs back
into the mid to upper 50s for most, under a mostly sunny sky.
Sfc high pressure becomes centered to our south, as the next
low pressure system rapidly moves east across the Great Lakes,
brining a quick shift in the winds back to the SSW by later
morning and aftn. In fact, it will become quite breezy once
again with gusts to 25-30 mph. Dry and turning warmer Sat
through early Sunday with highs in the 60s, and lows mainly in
the lower 40s. The next upper level trough starts to amplify
over the central CONUS Sunday, with increasing clouds, but
turning mild to warm with highs into the 60s to lower 70s. There
is a low end chc for a few showers late Sunday, though NBM PoPs
may be overdone.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front approaches early next week,
bringing the potential for strong to severe storms Monday, with below
normal temperatures to follow.

The latest models are in decent agreement with a strong mid/upper
level trough, almost becoming cutoff near the Great Lakes by
Monday evening. At the sfc, intense low pressure of forecast to
lift NE from the mid-MS/lower OH Valley to the Great Lakes late
Sun night/early Mon. With the upper low and sfc low almost co-
located, the models have trended to secondary sfc low/trough
development across the Appalachians Mon aftn. That system will
eventually drag a cold front through the area Monday night.
Ahead of the front, warm and somewhat humid wx is expected on
Mon with highs in the 70s and dew pts potentially in the lower-
mid 60s. A band of showers and storms is likely across the area
from Monday-Monday evening. If the secondary sfc trough/mesolow
does develop, some backing of the low level wind field would
develop, enhancing what will already be decent shear. SPC has
the region outlooked already, which is somewhat uncommon for the
mid-Atlantic. While there is still a lot of uncertainty with all
of these features coming together, this pattern does support a
all types of potential severe WX. Ina addition, the airmass
behind this will be much cooler and significantly drier, often a
feature of severe WX in the spring. Highs only in the 40s Tue-
Wed, with hard freeze probable for much of the area Tue night.
Gradually trending warmer by late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

IFR to MVFR to start the TAFs, with local VSBYs down to 1/4Sm in
SN at RIC. All terminals should see at least TEMPO IFR flight
restrictions through 21-23Z, with rapid improvement thereafter
from W to E. Strong northerly winds initially, diminishing
after ~22Z inland, and after 000Z closer to the coast. Dry/VFR
Sat, with S winds becoming gusty to ~25kt by late morning and
aftn.

Outlook: VFR conditions return persist into Sunday. A strong
cold front will bring the potential for flight restrictions in
SHRA/TSRA Monday, along with strong southerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 AM EDT Thursday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay,
tidal rivers, northern coastal waters and Currituck Sound into the
evening.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect from Cape Charles to Currituck
Beach Light NC, and for the mouth the Chesapeake Bay into early
this evening.

The strong fold front has pushed well south of the area and offshore
with steep pressure rises and strong cold air advection in the wake
of the front. This is allowing winds to remain 20 to 35 kt with
gusts to 40 kt over portions of the Bay and coastal waters. These
conditions will persist for the remainder of this afternoon and into
early this evening. Winds will decrease later this evening and
overnight as the surge of colder air relaxes and high pressure
builds in. Seas of 4-6 ft will slowly decrease, but remain elevated.

Winds become southerly overnight and by daybreak Friday as high
pressure builds in from the southwest. Southerly winds increase
Friday afternoon with SCA conditions likely from the NC/VA north to
Fenwick and over the Bay as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of
the next front. The  weak front will push through late Friday night
into early Saturday morning. Behind the front NW winds will be
lighter.

More tranquil marine conditions are expected Saturday into the first
half of Sunday before the next strong system approaches the region
late Sunday into Monday. WInds increase again Sunday night and
Monday with the potential for gale conditions ahead and behind
the front on Monday and Monday night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-
     635>638-650-652-654.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ634-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...LKB/RHR
CLIMATE...ERI/LKB