Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

399
FXUS61 KAKQ 070717
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
317 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in rainfall has increased Sunday into early Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable temperatures and dry through Saturday.

2) Moisture and rain chances return late this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures and dry through
Saturday.

A split flow pattern is observed on GOES water vapor channels
early this morning with a northern stream in vicinity of the
US/Canada border and a southern stream that extends across the
southern tier of the US. At the surface, 1020mb high pressure is
centered over the region. TD 9 is drifting slowly E in the
western Gulf. Clear and cool early this morning with
temperatures largely in the lower to mid 40s, with 50s at the
immediate coast. Temperatures will still fall a few degrees over
the next few hours, and typically cool spots could drop into
the upper 30s. Patchy shallow ground fog is possible around
sunrise, mainly in the interior coastal plain and Piedmont.

High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday with high temperatures
moderating back to near average, which are in the lower to mid
70s. However, highs across the Eastern Shore will be a little
cooler and in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The high shifts
farther offshore Thursday with high temperatures rising into the
upper 70s to lower 80s (potentially mid 80s well inland) ahead
of another dry cold front. This cold front crosses the region
Thursday night with temperatures trending down to near seasonal
averages Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions continue through
Saturday. However, a gradual increase in high levels clouds is
expected as upper level moisture spreads over the region well in
advance of what is forecast to become Hurricane Isaias.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture and rain chances return late this
weekend into early next week.

By Sunday and Monday, there is increasing confidence that
moisture gets pulled northward and then pushed eastward across
the region as the TC (forecast to become Hurricane Isaias) makes
landfall and merges with an upper trough in vicinity of the
Mid-South. Of the 00z/07 deterministic global models, the GFS
and EC AIFS are more progressive showing the best rainfall
potential in the early Sunday through Sunday evening timeframe,
while the ECMWF and CMC are slower with a longer duration in the
Sunday through early Monday timeframe. Heavy rain is possible
as ample moisture will be present, 00z ensemble systems showing
PW values at or above 200% of normal along with a plume of
instability surging N ahead of the trough. There is still
considerable spread between the 10th and 90th percentile QPF in
the 00z/07 ensemble guidance (EPS/GEFS/GEPS). In general, the
10th percentile (reasonable low-end) accumulated precip through
00z Tuesday is 0.25-0.5" (hence increasing confidence of
rainfall) while the 90th percentile is on the order of 1.5-3.0".
Heavy rain is possible as ample moisture will be present,
ensemble guidance showing PW values at or above 200% of normal
along with a plume of instability surging N ahead of the trough.
The overall consensus is for drier air conditions to arrive
later Monday and continue into the middle of next week.
Temperatures should remain near average late this weekend
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure was centered over the region as of 06z. VFR with
a calm to very light wind. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail the next 24 hours. The only exception is some possible
shallow ground early this morning, which could produce some
brief vsby restrictions mainly at RIC and PHF. The wind becomes
S to SE later this morning and increases to 5-8kt, and could
shift to a sea-breeze induced ENE at ORF during the aftn given
light flow. Mostly clear tonight with a very light southerly
wind.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue through much of the week. The
next chance for sub-VFR conditions does not arrive until late
this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally light winds and benign conditions prevail through
  Saturday.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely late this weekend into
  early next week as a remnant tropical system tracks through
  the central US.

Surface high pressure is centered a few hundred miles offshore
of the MD coast this morning. Winds are generally light and out
of the east. As the high shifts offshore later today, winds
shift to the S by this afternoon and then SW tonight. Those SW
winds could frequently gust to ~20 kt, especially N of New Point
Comfort in the Chesapeake Bay and N of Cape Charles on the
ocean. However, don`t expect any need for SCAs at this time.
Light winds return for Thursday as the pressure gradient again
slackens, with weak afternoon sea/bay breezes expected. A weak
cold front moves through overnight Thursday and northerly winds
increase to 10-15 kt by early Friday morning. Lighter winds
return Friday afternoon with high pressure again settling over
the area.

The marine forecast over the weekend is dependent on the future
track of a tropical system, which is currently forecast to make
landfall somewhere along the central Gulf coast Friday night.
High pressure will retreat as the (remnant) tropical system
moves northward through the TN Valley and easterly winds are
expected to slowly expected to increase by Saturday over the
local waters. A further increase in winds is possible Sunday as
the wind direction becomes SE, but exact specifics are difficult
to highlight at this point. Regardless, a period of Small Craft
Advisories seems likely early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW