Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

941
FXUS61 KAKQ 310533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
133 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

Extended Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and pleasant conditions continue through Sunday.

2) There is a chance for showers and a few storms across mainly
southern portions of the area on Monday (likely in the far SE).

3) Nuisance tidal flooding is possible in the lower bay, tidal
James River, and Atlantic coast tonight, with nuisance- minor
flooding possible in the upper bay/bayside of the MD Eastern
Shore Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and pleasant conditions continue through
Sunday.

An omega blocking pattern is staring to weaken across North
America this afternoon, though anomalous ridging persists over
central Canada flanked by a strong troughing over New England
and the Canadian maritimes. A sfc cold front has finally pushed
south of the area, with elevated N-NE winds along the coast (and
N-NW winds inland). Mostly sunny and pleasant with temperatures
now mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland W of the Bay,
and in the low-mid 70s closer to the coast and across the
eastern shore. Dew pts have dropped into the upper 30s to
lower-mid 40s over much of the region, with readings still in
the 50s over the far SW and along the coast. For tonight, winds
diminish shortly after sunset inland, but will remain elevated
through the evening closer to the coast, as sfc high pressure
across the Great Lakes builds SE. With the sfc high settling
overhead by early Sunday, expect lows to be rather cool for late
May, with widespread mid to upper 40s for the piedmont, and even
into some rural locations east of I-95. At the coast, lows will
mainly range through the 50s. On Sunday, light flow and a mainly
sunny sky will prevail with the sfc high in control (some SCT
cumulus in the SE possible). High temperatures will be below
average, with mid-upper 70s inland, and low-mid 70s near the
coast. Increasing clouds and milder Sunday night with lows in
the 50s to near 60 F. Could see a few light showers toward
daybreak Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2) There is a chance for showers and a few storms
across mainly southern portions of the area on Monday (likely in
the far SE).

A potent northern stream trough and cold front dives out of
Eastern Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the
Northeast CONUS, eventually dropping south and possibly trying
to become cut off by Wednesday off the Carolina coast. The sfc
low is forecast to pass by south of the CWA Monday, and there
will be at least a chance for rain showers across the southern
1/2 of the area, with PoPs likely to categorical into southside
Hampton Roads and NE NC. Heavy rain is not anticipated, but QPF
amounts have continued to trend up, with 0.25-0.50" along the
Albemarle sound in NE NC, tapering sharply to 0.10" or less into
most of VA through Tuesday. Otherwise, expect high temperatures
on Monday to hover around 80 degrees inland and the 70s closer
to the coast.

Temperatures likely remain below average Tuesday and Wednesday
(highs in the 70s) before a gradual rebound to average and
potentially above average by the second half of the week as the
heights rise over the eastern US.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Nuisance tidal flooding is possible in the
lower bay, tidal James River, and Atlantic coast tonight, with
nuisance- minor flooding possible in the upper bay/bayside of
the MD Eastern Shore Sunday night.

With increasing N-NE winds behind the cold front, water levels will
become slightly elevated along the Atlantic coast and in areas
adjacent to the lower bay/tidal James tonight. Forecast water levels
0.3-0.5 feet below minor flood stage attm. No plans for any statements
tonight. When winds turn to the S-SW Sunday night, nuisance to low-
end minor flooding is possible on the upper bay (especially at Bishop`s
Head and perhaps Cambridge and Crisfield).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/31 TAF period as
high pressure settles over the region. Mostly SKC skies, although
there is FEW/SCT high clouds south of the major terminals observed
on satellite imagery early this morning. Winds are mostly light and
variable across the area tonight, with the only exception at ECG,
which NE onshore flow winds are still 5-10 kt. Winds should decrease
to ~5 kt by around 09z at ECG. With the high pressure overhead,
winds will be variable today around 5-10 kt. Will likely see a sea
breeze develop in the afternoon, bringing an E-SE winds at ~10kt to
ORF/ECG and perhaps PHF.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue into early Monday.
An area of low pressure passes by south of the region Monday,
bringing a chance for showers- SE terminals could see a few flight
restrictions, but they are very unlikely elsewhere.
N-NE winds could once again be elevated along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake
  Bay, Lower James River, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound
  into tonight.

- Generally benign wind conditions are favored on Sunday and
  Monday, except for a brief period of low-end SCAs possible
  Sunday night on the bay.

- SCAs are possible with NE winds from Tue-Wed, but there is a
  lot of uncertainty regarding this scenario.

The dry cold front crossed the local waters this morning. NE
winds in its wake were 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt (highest in
the lower Ches Bay and coastal waters). Waves and seas have
increased to 2-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively. Will note that 6-7
ft seas are possible across the NC coastal waters overnight,
however, confidence was not high enough to explicitly forecast
those values. Farther offshore (20-60 NM), seas are expected to
build to 6-7 ft (potentially 6-8 ft) tonight. Recent
observations and model trends have indicated that winds are a
bit higher than originally anticipated and may remain elevated
a bit longer. As such, have extended SCAs. SCAs are now in
effect until 1 AM Sun for the Ches Bay and Lower James and 4 AM
Sun for the Currituck Sound. Will note that SCAs may need to be
extended a bit longer across the mouth of the bay. Additionally,
while winds are expected to diminish overnight into Sun, model
guidance indicates that swell may keep seas elevated at 4-5 ft
through the day across most of the coastal waters. As such, have
extended SCAs well into the day on Sun to account for the
elevated seas. Otherwise, winds become light and variable on Sun
as high pressure builds in, becoming SE Sun evening as the high
moves offshore. A brief surge is possible Sun evening as SE/S
winds increase to around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, however,
confidence in SCA conditions is low at this time.

Forecast uncertainty increases by the middle of next week. Most of
the deterministic and ensemble guidance shows low pressure deepening
offshore while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes/Northeast
CONUS during the Tue-Wed night timeframe. While a period of N-NE
winds is likely (with SCAs conditions) given the pattern, the
proximity of the low to the coast will determine whether we see
winds of 10-20 kt or a more impactful event.

High rip current risk Sunday for southern beaches, moderate rip
current risk northern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ633-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...ERI/RHR/RMM