Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

517
FXUS61 KAKQ 160807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
407 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonable conditions continue through
tonight, with unseasonably warm weather and chances for showers and
storms returning later this week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 308 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable conditions continue through
tonight, with unseasonably warm weather and chances for showers and
storms returning later this week into the weekend.

Morning weather analysis shows the Eastern United States under a
large ridge. At the top of the ridge axis at the surface, roughly a
1028mb high pressure is centered off the New England Coast. This
high continues to lead to mostly clear skies, outside from some high
level cirrus clouds moving across the far SE. Temperatures are
hovering in the upper 50s and low 60s inland and upper 60s to
low 70s along the coast. Through the rest of the morning into
sunrise expect temperatures to drop as winds are decoupled and
skies remain clear. Temperatures right before sunrise are
progged to be in the low to middle 50s inland and upper 50s to
low 60s closer to the coast. In addition, with dew points
hovering in the upper 50s to low 60s across the southwestern VA
Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore some patchy ground fog is
possible by sunrise. Through the rest of the day and into
tonight the high pressure will start to push south, but will
remain in control of the weather pattern leading to another
optimal weather day. With weak SSE flow forecasted today it
will lead to high being slightly warmer across the area.
Temperatures inland will be in low to middle 80s with the higher
temperatures located across the Piedmont. While closer to the
coast temps will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. For tonight,
temperatures are progged to be warmer as dew points slightly
increase and some moisture try`s to return to the area. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. In addition, with
the moisture trying to make a return this will potentially lead
to patchy fog development especially across NE NC.

Looking ahead to Thursday and Friday, high pressure will be further
south allowing for much warmer temperatures to return to the area
with slightly higher dew points. Thursday looks to be the warmest
day with highs likely in the upper 80s to possible low 90s inland.
While Friday there remains quite a bit of uncertainity in
temperatures due to the timing of the front. With the front
forecasted to come in earlier Friday across the north decided to
nudge temperatures north of I-64 down a couple of degrees while
across the south maintained upper 80s to possible low 90s. In terms
of rain chances these days, Thursday the piedmont has the potential
to see a shower or thunderstorms but confidence is low at this time.
While Friday looks to have the overall better chance with the cold
front.

As the week continues to progress the high pressure off the New
England coast will eventually push SW into the Carolina coastal
plain through midweek. This will likely cause high temps to stay
mostly in the low-mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower
60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). However, dew points are
forecasted to remain very comfortable through at least Thursday. By
the end of the week the upper ridge is progged to expand E-NE to the
TN Valley and central Appalachians. This will likely lead to above
average temps to return to the forecast area  with highs in the
upper 80s and possibly lower 90s. In addition, rain chances look
meager through much of the week. The best days for rain chances look
to be Friday and Saturday as a frontal passage approaches the area.

Then by this weekend Saturday looks slightly cooler as high pressure
moves over New England keeping the stalled front south of the area.
By SUnday the front will likely lift north bringing chances of
precipitation and slightly warmer temperatures back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 134 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions continue at all sites at the start of the 06z
taf period. Mostly clear skies will continue through this
afternoon. Patchy ground fog continues to look possible across
the Piedmont and the MD Eastern Shore late this morning,
potentially impacting SBY. If this fog develops it will likely
only cause brief MVFR conditions. Any fog that develops will
quickly dissipate after sunrise. Given the high pressure
overhead, winds are light and variable/calm. Winds will likely
increase by the afternoon but remain light around 5-10kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through at least Thursday night.
Scattered showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon-
evening, which could lead to localized instances of sub-VFR
conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions likely prevails into the
upcoming weekend outside of any localized ground fog.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Sub SCA conditions are forecast through early Friday. A front
  drops southward late Friday with increasing onshore winds, and
  possible low-end SCAs.


Surface high pressure is centered off the New England coast
early this morning, ridging SSW into the local waters. Winds
are generally E-SE at 5-10 kt. Waves have relaxed to ~1 foot
in the bay with seas 2-3 ft N and 3-4 ft S. As the sfc high
drifts south through the day, winds shift more to the S-SE by
tonight, but remain around 10 kt or less. Seas are expected to
subside to 2-3 ft by tonight and Thursday, with sub- SCA
conditions continuing into Friday. The 00Z/16 models have
trended a little faster with the frontal passage/wind shift,
now occurring Friday afternoon, leading to some enhanced
onshore flow behind the front Friday night into Saturday with
strong high pressure to the north again. Have increased the
winds a bit from the previous forecast, but probs for 18 kt
sustained winds are still fairly low at this time and the
current forecast still keeps predominant conditions sub-SCA.
However, it doesn`t take much in the way of dry/cool air to
result in SCA conditions this time of year with very warm local
waters. Will continue to watch this period in subsequent
forecast cycles.

There is a Moderate Rip Risk in effect for the southern beaches
today where seas are still ~3.5 ft, with low to the north where
seas are 2-3 ft and expected to subside further through the
day. Have low all areas Thursday as swell energy slowly subsides
and nearshore seas drop to ~2 ft. A Low Rip Risk is expected
for all area beaches on Friday as the post-frontal onshore flow
doesn`t really arrive until late in the day or Friday night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...LKB/RHR