Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

863
FXUS61 KAKQ 041034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
634 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- PoPs and QPF trended downward today, but still a rainy day for
  most.
- Updated Aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and wet weather continues today. Gradually drying out
tonight.

2) Seasonable temperatures and dry for the upcoming work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and wet weather continues today. Gradually
drying out tonight.

A frontal boundary is situated well S of the area this morning. A
CAD airmass is in place with high pressure over New England.
Locally, it`s a moist and (relatively) cool early morning. The
coverage of rain has been lower than expected, perhaps owing to
earlier convective activity well to our S. There is a batch of
light- moderate rain currently moving through the Eastern Shore
with drizzle or very light rain elsewhere.

Given observational and modeling trends, the coverage of rain later
today also will probably be less than originally anticipated. A wave
of low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary later this
morning/early afternoon and do expect more widespread rain to
develop across SE VA and especially NE NC during this time. CAMs
also highlight another batch potentially moving through the Piedmont
as well. With the lower coverage and intensity of the rain, QPF has
also trended lower and additional totals today will be generally be
in the 0.10-0.25" range, except 0.25-0.5" for far SE VA and NE NC.
The coolest temps, mid to upper 60s, will be well inland today (in
the core of the CAD airmass), with lower 70s near the coast. Rain
tapers off by late this afternoon and evening as drier air begins to
move in behind another cold front, though low-end PoPs remain in
place across the SE through early tonight. Clouds will be slow to
clear and mostly cloudy skies persist tonight, with low temperatures
ranging from the mid-upper 50s W of I-95 and lower-mid 60s E of I-95.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures and dry for the upcoming
work week.

Cold advection will initially lag behind the secondary front on
Monday. So, temps will actually be warmer than this weekend for most
locations as the sun makes a reappearance. Highs should be in the
70s for all of our CWA, warmest W of the Chesapeake Bay. The more
pronounced cooler and drier air arrives Monday evening into Monday
night as ~1025 mb high pressure builds down toward the Mid-Atlantic
from the Great Lakes region. Markedly cooler Monday night as lows
dip into the 50s for SE VA/NE NC, with mid to upper 40s elsewhere.
The cooler/dry theme continues into the midweek period as the high
pressure system builds overhead. Tuesday should feel most like fall
with highs struggling to reach 70 F. Similarly, Tuesday`s overnight
lows will also be the coolest of the week. The current forecast has
40s for most of the area, though a light onshore wind near the coast
likely keeps these areas in the 50s. Should also note that some
upper 30s are not out of the realm of possibility, especially for
rural and typically cooler locations in the Piedmont.

Upper-level heights rebound some by Wednesday and a gradual warming
trend is expected through the end of the week. Subsidence and a very
dry 700-300 mb layer will also keep everyone dry. The next chance of
rain is not until next Saturday night and Sunday, but the exact
details are fuzzy at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Sunday...

Widespread low clouds with IFR and LIFR conditions in place at
the local terminals. Expect continued low clouds through the
day with on and off rain and/or drizzle. This will also favor
VSBY restrictions, as low as 2-4 SM in the heaviest activity.
Overall, the coverage of rain has trended lower for most of
today, but will show prevailing RA/DZ in the TAFs through most
of the afternoon due to uncertainty with exact timing. Lower
VSBY may improve later this afternoon as precip begins to taper
off. However, IFR-LIFR CIGs are expected to prevail through the
period. Additional VSBY reductions are possible tonight as light
winds and sfc moisture favor some FG/BR development. Winds will
generally be quite light out of the north today, except NE at
SBY.

Outlook: Conditions gradually dry out Sunday night into Monday,
with VFR conditions eventually returning by Monday afternoon.
VFR conditions are then expected through much of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A stronger cold front crosses the waters Monday night into Tuesday
with Small Craft Advisories possible.

1030mb high pressure is centered from ME to Atlantic Canada early
this morning. Meanwhile, a stationary front lingers in vicinity of
the SC and southern NC coast. The pressure gradient on the southern
flank of the high has resulted in a 15-20kt E wind off the MD, DE,
and NJ coasts, which as resulted in seas ranging from 3-4ft S to
~4ft N in the coastal waters and likely ~5ft in the offshore waters
N of Parramore Island. Waves in the Ches. Bay are ~2ft. Weak low
pressure develops along the stationary front today and pushes off
the Outer Banks tonight. The wind will be light today, generally
shifting from E/SE the first part of the day, to W/NW by later this
aftn. A push of drier air arrives late tonight into Monday with a
NNW wind increasing to 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay and ocean, and 8-
12kt elsewhere. Seas gradually subside tonight, and will primarily
be 2-3ft by tonight and Monday. Waves in the Ches. Bay are expected
to be 1-2ft today into tonight, and 2-3ft by Monday.

A stronger cold front is progged to cross the coast later Monday
followed by a CAA surge Monday night into Tuesday. 04/00z models
have continued to show a weaker trend with this post-frontal surge.
Local wind probs for sustained 18kt are now 50% or less over the
Ches. Bay Monday evening, and these values diminish late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Regardless, there will still likely be a
period with a 15-20kt N/NNE wind for the Ches. Bay, lower James, and
Currituck Sound given the cooler/drier air over warm water.
Additionally, a N/NNE wind should increase to ~20kt over the
southern coastal waters Monday night, with 4-5ft seas by later
Monday night into early Tuesday. Wind/seas fall short of SCA
criteria based on the 00z guidance. High pressure builds across the
coast later Tuesday/Tuesday night and lingers through Thursday. A
weaker cold front crosses the coast Thursday night, with high
pressure returning Friday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to
prevail later Tuesday through the end of the week.

A Moderate Rip Risk continues for the northern beaches today and all
beaches on Monday. A Moderate (or potentially high) Rip Risk is
forecast for the southern beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ