Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

900
FXUS61 KAKQ 191854
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
254 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued along and south of I-64.


Active weather pattern continues Monday through Thursday of this
week with below seasonable temperatures by the end of this week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as a hot and humid environment is in place.

2) Active weather pattern continues Monday through
Thursday of this week with below seasonable temperatures by the end
of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as a hot and humid environment is in place.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a 700mb wave and its moisture axis
moving through the area helping to initiate showers and
thunderstorms  along the high terrain and cold front to the west and
north and and along a diurnal/moisture boundary located along the
VA/NC border. Clouds were able to clear allowing temperatures to
rise into the middle 80s to low 90s with low to middle 70 dews. This
allowed for MLcape values to rise between 1500-2500J/kg across the
area with the highest values concentrated across the south. Shear
again remains quite weak with bulk-shear values between 25-35kt with
the highest values concentrated along the cold front to the north.
With these ingredients in place and where storms have begun to
initiate a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for areas
along and south of I-64 with the primary threat being damaging wind
gusts. Through the afternoon and evening the cold front will advance
south allowing storms to track south and east. Storms will remain
discrete at first but guidance has them evolving into multi-cell
clusters and broken line segments. The severe threat should diminish
by this evening and as the severe threat diminishes the hydro-threat
is expected to increase.

In terms of the hydro threat, a very moist airmass is in place
across the area with PWATS of 2-2.3" across the area with again the
highest concentrated across SE VA and NE NC. With modest MLCAPE in
place as previously mentioned these storms are expected to produce
strong rain rates that could lead to very localized Flash Flooding.
The threat for this potential increases this evening as training
storm are expected especially across SE VA and NE NC where a
boundary has been noted as stated above and storms have already
begun to train. Recent guidance has storms training over this area
late this evening. However, with the area remaining in a drought and
the threat being localized no Flood Watch has been issued.
Otherwise, temperatures behind the front are expected to cool down
especially in the rain cooled areas with upper 60s to low 70s
forecasted. Will note, models have hinted on residual moisture
lagging behind the front and in areas that receive rain there is
the potential for patchy fog development late tonight into early
Monday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Active weather pattern continues Monday through
Thursday of this week with below seasonable temperatures by the end
of this week.

The aforementioned cold front will liner across the area Monday
bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. These
thunderstorms could potentially pose the risk of a strong to
damaging wind gust and localized Flash Flooding cannot be ruled out
especially if storms move over areas that have been saturated from
the previous days. Will note, there is some discrepancy within the
models and POPS continue to remain in question. This is due to the
placement of the cold front. Temperatures Tuesday are expected to be
around seasonable with highs in the middle to upper 80s. For Tuesday
and Wednesday, the severe threat looks to be increasing as a much
stronger trough will start to move out of the Midwest and into the
Mid-Atlantic. Tuesday looks to be the strongest day as shear looks
to be the strongest and as multiple shortwaves will move through and
could initiate storms along the Lee Trough. Some of the wind
profiles based of model soundings show the potential for discrete
storms ahead of a possible line of storms coming out of the NW. At
the surface, a strong cold front will move into place Wednesday
helping to initiate thunderstorms potentially producing another
round of severe weather. There remains slight uncertainty but models
have hinted on the potential for a recovering atmosphere ahead of
the front that is favorable for severe weather. The primary hazard
at this time looks to be strong to severe wind gusts but other
hazards could potentially evolve. Once this front moves through,
slightly cooler temperatures are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 132 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions have been noted across all terminals as of
1730z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have initiated across
the piedmont and across SE VA these showers and thunderstorms
should impact the VA and NC terminals from 18z-23z this
afternoon and evening. These storms will bring strong to severe
wind gusts and MVFR and IFR restrictions. Tempos have been added
to the terminals that will be impacted. Otherwise, winds have
begun to shift out of the NW across SBY and RIC as a cold front
has started to push through the area. While to the south winds
remain out of the NE across PHF and ORF and SW out of ECG. By
tonight, winds will become light and variable the storms will
have ended primarily north of the VA/NC border. ECG may still
receive MVFR to IFR restrictions as showers and or
thunderstorms potentially linger. In addition, model guidance
has hinted on patchy fog developing in areas that will receive
rainfall and MVFR VIS and CIGs have been added to the VA and NC
terminals.


Outlook: Rain chances continue into next week, with
intermittent flight restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Sunday...

- A weak front pushes south across the area today.

- Small Craft conditions are likely across the waters late Tuesday
  into Wednesday.

- Strong storms are possible each afternoon and evening from today
  through mid week.

Afternoon analysis shows a weak frontal boundary making slow
southward progress across the waters. Winds are generally N or NNE 5-
10 kt behind the front. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas around 2 ft near
shore and 3-4 ft well offshore. Generally benign marine conditions
are expected today through Monday, outside of local influences from
strong convection each afternoon and evening. Winds become easterly
Monday then south on Tuesday as the front lifts north and washes
out. Southerly winds increase Tuesday into Wednesday with Small
Craft Advisory conditions likely Tuesday afternoon and into
Wednesday. Another cold front likely pushes into the area late
Wednesday.

Rip current risk is low at all beaches on Monday. Tuesday and
Wednesday will likely see moderate rip risk for the northern beaches
and low/moderate risk for the southern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET
AVIATION...HET/JKP
MARINE...RHR