Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

344
FXUS61 KAKQ 130736
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
236 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Benign weather is expected tonight into Saturday. A strong cold
front crosses the the Mid-Atlantic late Saturday night into
Sunday, with some accumulating snow possible Sunday. Arctic air
moves in behind the cold front Sunday night, and provides a cold
start to next week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give
way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Dry and relatively mild today with highs in the upper 40s and
  50s.

- A strong cold front brings low-end snow potential and
  blustery conditions late tonight and Sunday. Winter Weather
  Advisory issues for Dorchester and Wicomico Counties.

Transient sfc high pressure is located along the coast early this
morning, which will slide offshore today as a strong cold front
approaches from the west. Latest obs show temps in the mid to upper
20s, which will likely stabilize as high level cloud cover moves
into the area. Dry and relatively mild today ahead of
tonight/tomorrow`s system. Highs will be in the upper 40s across the
north and low to mid 50s from I-64 south.

A strong Arctic cold front is then set to cross through the region
late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Precip associated with
this front will enter far northern portions of the area after
midnight, slowly spreading S/SE toward the I-64 corridor and lower
Eastern Shore heading toward sunrise. S/SE progression continues
through the morning before exiting offshore by early afternoon. This
looks to be a case where cold air is chasing the precip, so the mode
likely starts out as rain before transitioning to snow on the back-
end. The 00z CAMs are generally consistent with keeping the most
wide-spread snow/rain across the MD Eastern Shore and perhaps into
the Northern Neck. The accumulation forecast has not changed too
much from the previous forecast cycle. Currently calling for 1-2" on
the MD Eastern Shore, primarily in Dorchester and Wicomico. Less
than an inch of accumulation is forecast along and N of the I-64
corridor, omitting the Hampton Roads portion, and the lower Eastern
Shore. Cannot rule out a trace/dusting for Hampton Roads should the
changeover happen in time. A "reasonable worst case" would be 2-3"
in Dorchester/Wicomico and up to 2" for the rest of the Eastern
Shore and Northern Neck. Went ahead and issues a Winter Weather
Advisory for 1am-1pm Sunday for Dorchester and Wicomico with this in
mind.

Outside of precip chances, Sunday will be blustery as cold air
rushes in behind the front. Winds will pick up by mid-morning Sunday
and peak in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35mph will be possible. Highs
range from the low 30s across the north to the low 40s in the SE,
which will occur in the morning before temps drop in the afternoon.
By mid-afternoon, wind chills could be as low as the mid teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Bitterly cold temps Sunday night/Monday morning with wind
  chills in the single digits.

- Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night

Strong cold air advection continues Sunday night ushering in
bitterly cold temperatures. Much of the area will see temps in the
upper teens by midnight with Monday morning lows in the mid-teens
for most of the area and the upper teens to around 20F close to the
coast. While winds will not be quite as strong as Sunday afternoon,
there will be enough wind to knock wind chills down into the single
digits for the entire area. Cold Weather Advisories are likely.

The arctic sfc high slides in overhead Monday, leading to a cold and
mostly sunny day with much less wind. Highs will be in the low to
mid 30s. Not quite as cold on Monday with lows in the low to mid
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

- Moderating temperatures expected through the middle of next
  week.

- A potential front brings rain chances late-week

Tuesday through Thursday will follow a warming trend once the strong
high is suppressed to the SE and the UL trough lifts out. Highs on
Tues look to be in the 40s, followed by the 50s on Wed, and around
60 on Thursday. Tuesday and Wed look dry, then a potential front
returns rain chances to the forecast Thursday afternoon. Will say
that there is not a lot of confidence in details on this front given
the varying solutions from the global models. Behind the front temps
cool again, but this time sticking closer to seasonal norms.
Forecast highs for Friday are in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 06/13 TAF period. Starting out
with mostly clear skies, then high level cloud cover moves in
from the N/NW later today ahead of tomorrow`s cold front. Winds
will be calm to light and variable at times tonight, then SW
winds of 5-10kt during the day.

A strong cold front will cross the area late tonight into early
Sunday. This could bring a period of a rain/snow mix followed
by all snow early morning through midday Sunday. Some flight
restrictions may be possible with this front. Turning much
colder/drier with gusty NNW winds (25-35kt) Sunday afternoon.
VFR conditions prevail Sunday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A strong, Arctic cold front crosses the waters early Sunday
  morning, with Gale conditions then expected later Sunday
  morning into Sunday night over all of the waters.

- Light freezing spray is possible Sunday night.

- Another round of SCAs is possible Monday night into early Tuesday.

Early this morning, high pressure (~1020 mb) is centered over the
waters resulting in light and variable winds. Seas are averaging 1
to 2 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 foot or less. High
pressure will center further offshore later this morning and a warm
front will lift north over the waters. As the warm front lifts
north, winds become S to SW and increase to around 10 knots (10 to
15 knots northern coastal waters). Meanwhile, a strong, Arctic cold
front will be approaching from the NW today and is expected to cross
the waters tonight into early Sunday morning. This will be the main
focus of the forecast period.

In the wake of the strong cold front early Sunday morning, very cold
and dry air advects into the region. Extremely cold temperatures
aloft will mix down to the surface across (relatively) warmer waters
helping create very windy conditions. Winds rapidly increase and
become NW Sunday morning, with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and
gusts of 35+ knots expected by late morning-early afternoon over a
majority of the waters. Winds increase further during the afternoon-
evening hours, peaking between roughly ~00z to 06z Monday, sustained
winds of 30 to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots are expected during
this timeframe. Winds then diminish, eventually falling below Gale
thresholds everywhere by ~12z, and below SCA thresholds by Monday
afternoon, as high pressure builds back into the area. Gale Watches
have been upgraded to Gale Warnings for all of the waters Sunday-
Sunday night. SCAs will likely be needed late Sunday night into
Monday as Gale headlines begin to drop off. In addition to the wind,
seas build to 5 to 9 feet by Sunday night, though the offshore
component of the wind should help to keep seas from building
further. Waves in the Bay will build to 4 to 6 feet. Finally, some
freezing spray is possible Sunday night as the bitterly cold air
filters into the area in combination with the strong winds. However,
marginal water temperatures (low to mid 40s) should help to keep any
freezing spray on the lighter side.

Calmer conditions are anticipated later Monday, though a brief surge
of S-SW wind may lead to additional SCA headlines (mainly over the
Chesapeake Bay) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Sub-
SCA conditions then return Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold
front may bring increasing winds Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     MDZ021-022.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-
     635>638-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB