Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

174
FXUS61 KAKQ 180706
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
306 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No Significant changes has been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures remain below average today through Thursday morning.
Another hard freeze is likely late tonight/early Thursday morning
for rural inland areas.

2) Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day
Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into
next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next
weekend outside of a minimal chance of showers Friday night.

3) A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week
bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures remain below average today through
Thursday morning. Another hard freeze is likely late
tonight/early Thursday morning for rural inland areas.

High pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic early this
morning beneath a longwave trough that covers much of the
Eastern Seaboard. Mostly clear early this morning with
temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30F inland, with
mid/upper 30s along the coast where a light northerly wind
persists. Temperatures likely drop a few degrees toward sunrise
with early morning lows in the mid/upper 20s inland and lower
30s along the coast.

Cool today with less wind and highs in the lower to mid 40s as
high pressure over the region. Chilly again tonight. Inland
rural areas will likely have another hard freeze with lows in
the upper 20s (mid 20s possible in the Piedmont). Closer to and
along the coast, light onshore flow will result in lows not
quite a chilly and generally in the lower/mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures return to near seasonal averages
during the day Thursday with a steady moderating trend in
temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue
late this week into next weekend outside of a minimal chance of
showers Friday night.

00z/18 ensemble guidance continues to depict a strong upper
ridge over the central CONUS late week building E by next
weekend. Temperatures return to near seasonal averages
Thursday/Thursday night, with a steady warming trend beginning
Friday and continuing into next weekend. There is no signal for
organized rainfall later this week into next weekend aside from
a weak upper system that brings a chance of showers Friday
night. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to continue.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region
early next week bringing a chance of showers and a return to
cooler temperatures.

00z/18 EPS/GEFS depict weakening of the upper ridge early next
week as a trough digs from the Great Lakes to the Northeast.
This will allow a cold front to drop across the region along
with a chance of showers. Below average temperatures are
expected to return behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is centered over the region as of 06z. VFR under a
mostly clear sky and a light N to NW wind. VFR conditions
prevail today through tonight. Passing high clouds will move
over the area this morning a clear out later today into tonight.
Additionally, some low-level CU will likely develop later this
morning for the coastal terminals as the wind becomes NE. A
5-10kt N/NE wind early today will gradually become E/SE by this
aftn, and then become very light by tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue Thursday through Sunday with
light winds. There is a low chance for showers this weekend
though most areas stay dry.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters
  through early this morning, turning to benign conditions later
  this morning through the end of the week.

- The next good chance of solid SCAs is Sunday night-Monday
  following a cold frontal passage.

High pressure continues to build into the area early this morning.
Winds shifted to the N during the evening yesterday, bringing a
small push of CAA bringing slightly elevated winds along with it.
Latest obs depict winds of 15 to 20kt in the bay and coastal waters
and 10-15kt over the rivers. Seas have been under-performing
slightly, but offshore buoys do suggest 5ft seas out near 20nm.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the bay and coastal waters
through later this morning. The sfc high then settles to the N of
the area later today. Winds become much lighter at 5-10kt and
onshore. Seas fall back to 2-3ft. This pattern this persists through
the remainder of the week. Next chance for elevated winds look to be
over the weekend with southerly flow ahead of a front, but guidance
currently keeps this sub-SCA. There is higher confidence
reaching SCA conditions behind the cold front during the
Sunday-Monday time period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC