Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

252
FXUS61 KAKQ 271058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
658 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is a Slight Severe Risk today for much of the area
(with a Marginal elsewhere). In addition, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible area-wide.

2) Drier weather returns to end the week and likely continues
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a Slight Severe Risk today for much of
the area (with a Marginal elsewhere). In addition, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible area-wide.

An upper ridge continues to prevail over the subtropical
western Atlantic with a plume of deep moisture rotating around
the periphery of the ridge and originating in the Gulf.
Meanwhile, a vigorous trough is digging SE through the Midwest
and Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is co-located
with the upper ridge and centered off the Southeast coast. A
stationary front lingers from central VA to the Eastern Shore,
but this boundary is beginning to gradually lift to the N/NE.
Stratus and areas of fog are occurring in vicinity of the
boundary. A subtle shortwave trough has allowed for areas of
light rain to expand from central VA to the Northern Neck early
this morning, and this activity should lift ENE across the MD
Eastern Shore early this morning.

Otherwise, a mostly dry period should develop by mid-morning to
early aftn, with higher PoPs late in the day into the evening.
This timing allows for increased instability, steep low level
lapse rates, and somewhat drier air aloft in advance of an
approaching cold front. SPC has maintained most of VA/MD zones
in a Slight Risk for severe tstms with the new Day 1 outlook,
with 15% probs for damaging winds as the primary threat, and 5%
hail probs for the stronger cores. The compressed H7-H5 heights
will allow for moderately strong W winds aloft, increasing 0-6km
bulk shear to 30- 40kt. Instability should be ample, with
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could lead to more organized
storm clusters/line segments. Additionally, heavy rain will
remain a threat as PW values remain 1.75"-2.00". High
temperatures today range from the lower to mid 80s N, to the
upper 80s/near 90F SE. The general timing for the greatest SVR
threat will be 3pm-10pm.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier weather returns to end the week and
likely continues this weekend into early next week.

The cold front arrives from the north later tonight, and
gradually pushes south of the area early Thursday as a trough
digs out of Eastern Canada into the Northeast CONUS. High chc to
likely PoPs linger into this evening (highest E/SE) in advance
of the front, but after that an influx of drier air should shut
off precip chances into Thursday. Undercut NBM PoPs a bit on
Thursday, primarily for interior NE NC, but still maintaining
chc PoPs in this area. Some CAMs develop some isolated
convection over the Piedmont during the aftn, so NBM 20% PoPs
were maintained. Elsewhere, PoPs are less than 15%. Otherwise,
partly to mostly sunny and less humid but due to a well mixed
BL, forecast high temperatures remain in the low-mid 80s
Thursday. Friday will be mild and dry as high pressure settles
from the Great Lakes to the local area with highs in the upper
70s to around 80 F inland, and in the mid 70s for coastal areas,
after a pleasant morning with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

By this weekend, another trough digs out of Canada and pushes
another cold front south across the Mid-Atlantic. However, the
latest trends are for a stronger northern stream, which
suppresses the moisture S. 27/00z EPS/GEFS each depict PW values
remaining below normal through the weekend, and even into early
next week. For now, NBM PoPs are 20% or less Saturday (mostly
likely dry for most locations), with PoPs less than 15% Sunday.
NBM PoPs are ~20% Monday/Tuesday, which is near climo.
Temperatures will be near to a little below normal overall from
Saturday through Tuesday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and
lows mainly in the 50s, with some upper 40s possible over the
Piedmont Sunday morning. Overall, quite pleasant for the end of
May into the beginning of June.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Wednesday...

A stationary front lingered from central VA to SE MD as of 12z.
Conditions were IFR/LIFR in vicinity of the boundary including
RIC and SBY, along with some areas of light rain and mist with
reduced vsby. Farther S, mainly VFR and MVFR with a 5-10kt SW
wind. Conditions are expected to gradually improve later this
morning with MVFR cigs lifting from RIC to SBY from 14-16z. A
WSW wind of 8-12kt develops by this aftn well in advance of a
cold front. Showers/tstms are expected to arrive later this aftn
into this evening. Any showers/tstms have the potential to
produce IFR vsby in heavy rain along with strong wind gusts. The
cold front pushes across the region later tonight into early
Thursday.

Outlook: Drier air, N winds, and VFR conditions are expected
Thursday through Friday. Another cold front arrives by Saturday,
but most guidance depicts this as a dry frontal passage with
increased northerly winds and VFR conditions. High pressure and
VFR conditions prevail by Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorms could bring strong wind gusts and locally
  higher waves late this afternoon and evening.

- Winds become northerly behind a front Thursday, followed by
  light flow Friday. Elevated onshore flow and higher seas
  possible this weekend.

Observations show a light S wind this morning, which will
become SW over the next few hours into the daylight hours today.
While mainly benign conditions are expected, there is a threat
for strong-severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon and
evening today which could bring significantly higher wind gusts
(40+ kt) and locally higher waves. The associated front will
drop southward through the waters late tonight/early Thursday
morning with a wind shift to the N expected. Although prevailing
sub-SCA winds are forecast, a brief northerly wind surge with a
few gusts to 20 kt is possible around and just after sunrise. A
~10 kt N wind continues through most of Thursday. High pressure
brings a period of light flow and afternoon sea breezes Friday.
By the weekend, a complex set of lows offshore and a cold front
will likely bring a period of onshore flow. Winds don`t look
particularly impressive, but could near SCA criteria Saturday
night and early Sunday.

Seas remain in the 2-3 ft range through at least Friday night.
Similarly, waves in the Chesapeake Bay will only be in the 1-2
ft range. Building seas are possible later Saturday into Sunday;
this is ultimately dependent on the magnitude of onshore flow
and strength of the lows offshore.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW