Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

226
FXUS61 KAKQ 231946
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
246 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds back into the area through early next
week, leading to dry conditions. Another system impacts the area
Tuesday into the middle of next week, with cooler and drier
conditions to then follow from Thanksgiving Day into next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1230 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:


- Seasonable and dry conditions expected today, with chilly
  temperatures tonight after a secondary dry cold front moves
  through.

Latest analysis reveals 1020+mb sfc high pressure building
across the region this afternoon. To the north, weak clipper
low continues to traverse southern Ontario, and will cross into
northern New England tonight. The attendant cold front crosses
the region this evening, and will bring a reinforcing shot of
CAA to the area tonight, as winds veer to the NNW post-frontal.
Look for highs in the low to mid 60s west of the bay today,
upper 50s to around 60 Eastern Shore, under a mainly sunny sky
with breezy W-SW winds gusting to ~15 mph.

Weak cool air advection, clear sky, and light winds will
produce a good environment for radiational cooling, though the
boundary layer should remain mixed enough to limit max
radiation. A chilly night is forecast for tonight, with lows
dropping into the 30s (lower 40s along the immediate coast).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Cooler temperatures and dry conditions through Tuesday morning.

- Another storm system approaches Tuesday, with some light rain
  showers possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Additional rounds of showers will be likely Wednesday as a
  cold front moves through.

Ridging aloft will build across the region on Monday from the Mid-
South, as the center of the surface high settles across the
Mid-Atlantic. Despite plenty of sunshine, ongoing CAA will keep
temperatures mainly in the 50s across the region, with some
readings right around 60F out in the piedmont.

Cloud cover will start to move into the area late Monday
afternoon and evening from NW to SE, ahead of the next system
approaching the area from the west. This frontal system will
move through the OH/TN Valley Tuesday, as a surface low
occludes over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Weak overrunning
moisture brings a gradual thickening and lowering of cloud
cover Tuesday morning, with light precipitation overspreading
the area Tuesday afternoon and night as a warm front lifts
across the region. Despite increasing cloud cover, southerly
flow will allows temps to moderate into the 60s Tuesday (60-65F
across the northern counties and 65-70F Hampton Roads).
Remaining mild in the quasi-warm sector Tuesday night, with lows
mainly in the 50s, though some lower 60s possible SE. PoPs are
now in the 30-40% range for the I-95 corridor for late Tuesday
afternoon and evening, and in the 50-60% range for the US-15
corridor out in the piedmont. Scattered showers then lift across
the area Tuesday night, with 50-80% PoPs areawide. Despite
favorable shear and forcing, meager instability, dry sub-cloud
layer and overnight timing continue to argue for holding out
Thunder mention Tuesday night.

Model guidance continues to converge on the Wed afternoon and
early evening time frame for the timing of a second round of
showers associated with and ahead of the trailing cold front.
There are low probs (20-30%) for MLCAPE at/exceeding 250 J/kg
Wed afternoon and evening across NE NC into Hampton Roads. Given
this and decent kinematics/forcing, will maintain slight chance
thunder wording for Wed afternoon across the SE coastal plain.
Clearing out Wednesday night with lows in the 30s to low 40s.

As far as QPF goes, model trends are unsurprisingly toward a
faster, drier solution. QPF of between one-tenth and one-
quarter of an inch is forecast for both rounds of showers
through Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Drier and much cooler weather returns from Thanksgiving Day
  into next weekend.

In the wake of the front, an expansive upper level trough digs
down across the eastern United States, bringing a much cooler,
drier airmass to the area for Thanksgiving Day into next weekend.
High temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s, while temperatures Friday will likely max out only
in the mid to upper 40s on breezy W-NW winds of 20-25 mph. Lows
Thu night in the 30s to low 40s, lows Friday night in the 20s
to around 30 at the coast. Mostly sunny, dry conditions, and
cooler temperatures then linger through next weekend, as high
pressure builds across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Sunday...

Morning stratus and fog cleared out earlier this morning, leaving
mainly clear/sunny conditions across the region to begin the
18z TAF period. W-SW winds 5-10 kt gusting to ~15 kt early this
afternoon, veer back to the W-NW late this afternoon, ahead of
an approaching reinforcing cold front. Winds then quickly shift
back to the N ~5-7 kt behind the front tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday, with winds
quickly diminishing Mon/Mon night as high pressure slides
overhead. Another system will approach the area on Tuesday
evening, bringing a chance for rain and periods of degraded
flight conditions late Tuesday and again with the trailing cold
front on Wednesday afternoon. Any sub-VFR conditions clear for
Wed night through late week, though gusty W-NW winds to ~15-20
kt will be possible on Thanksgiving Day through Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 246 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-advisory conditions today with low-end Small Craft
  Advisories in effect tonight into Monday morning behind
  another cold front. SCAs have been issued for the Ches. Bay
  and coastal waters north of the VA-NC border.

- Sub-SCA conditions quickly return on Monday and will prevail through
  Wednesday before a stronger cold front brings a round of more
  solid SCAs from Wednesday night through the end of the work
  week.

The latest wx analysis shows high pressure over the area with a low
pressure system north of the Great Lakes dragging a cold front
through the NE. With the high pressure overhead, winds are S-SW
around 5-10 kt this afternoon. The cold front will cross the waters
this evening and overnight with another shot of CAA and drier air,
which will shift the winds out of the N-NW and increase to 15-20 kt
over most of the bay/ocean with gusts to 25 kt in the northern
coastal waters. SCA are in effect from this evening until Monday
morning for the bay and ocean zones north of the VA-NC border.
Although the SCA is marginal for the coastal waters, with local wind
probs decreased for gusts to 25 kt from previous runs, will continue
to keep the SCA in effect for continuity and will cancel the
advisory early if needed. Behind this front, winds will become sub-
SCA again as high pressure returns to the area during the day Monday
with N winds around 10 kt becoming SW overnight. Winds will be sub-
SCA through Wednesday afternoon, but ahead of the next front, winds
could reach low-end SCA criteria briefly Tuesday night with gusts to
20 kt in the bay and 25 kt in the coastal waters. Then, a stronger
cold front will pass through the local area Wednesday night/Thursday
morning bringing likely solid SCA conditions to the local waters
from Wednesday night through potentially Friday night with WNW
winds. Local wind probs have about a 10% chance of gusts to 34 kt on
Thursday night, so will continue to monitor trends for possible gale
force gusts. Otherwise winds will likely peak Thursday night at WNW
20-25 kt with gust to 30 kt across local waters.

Waves and seas are currently 1-3 ft across all local waters. Seas
will build to 3-4 ft with the front tonight but will remain sub-SCA
through Wednesday. With the stronger system late week, seas will
increase to 4-5 ft and waves 3-4 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ630>632-634-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM/NB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...ERI/KMC