Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

364
FXUS61 KAKQ 011104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
604 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion.

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry, seasonable weather continues early this week. Clouds will
increase today, but no rain is expected.

2) A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but confidence
remains low. Above average temperatures are also expected to
continue through at least the first few days of November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather continues early this week.
Clouds will increase today, but no rain is expected.

~1035mb surface high pressure is centered across the northern Mid-
Atlantic, and is ridging southward into the area. Temperatures are
in the 40s with high clouds over the area well in advance of a
approaching weak shortwave (that is currently over western KY/TN).

The surface high is progged to gradually shift eastward later today
through Monday, leading to weak onshore flow each day and highs
generally in the upper 60s-around 70F. The warmest temps will tend
to occur away from the coast due to continuing onshore flow keeping
coastal locations a few degrees cooler. The shortwave will cross the
area on Monday, leading to continued cloudiness. However, rain
chances remain very low (<5%) due to weak forcing aloft and dry low
levels. The surface high moves farther offshore on Tuesday as an
upper ridge axis moves overhead. The low level flow becomes SE on
Tue, and temps warm well above average with 70s expected area-wide
along with much more sunshine than is expected today/Monday.
Interior portions of southern VA and NE NC could approach the upper
70s. Warm again on Wednesday with high temps ranging through the 70s
(80F readings are not out of the question across interior portions
of SE VA/NE NC).


KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday,
but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also
expected to continue through at least the first few days of November.

The seasonably warm temperatures continue into mid-late week as that
aforementioned ridge shifts a bit to the east (but may be slow to
move offshore). A strong low pressure system at the surface and
aloft will initially move from the Rockies into the northern Plains
and Midwest early in the week, while a trailing cold front
eventually tries to advance toward the area in the Thursday-Friday
timeframe. Shower chances return by Thursday into Thursday night as
the trailing cold front gets close to the area. However, models
continue to trend downward with respect to precip in our area as the
best upper forcing and height falls likely miss us to the north.
Nevertheless, the ensembles show a 30-50% of 0.5" of rain across the
area from Thursday-Friday. As the previous forecaster mentioned,
most of the ensembles still show a relative minima in rainfall over
our area when compared to areas to our west, southwest, and north.
However, this still could change and we continue to advertise a
general 40-50% PoP from Thursday morning into Friday. Highs remain
at least in the low-mid 70s through the end of the week, with dew
pts potentially rising well into the 60s by late week. There won`t
be much in the way of appreciable CAA behind the front, and above
average temperatures may continue through next weekend. There remain
no potential freezes in the forecast as the more substantial cold
air remains in the northern half of Canada for the foreseeable
future.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 600 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail across the region this evening and will
continue through the 12z TAF period. SCT/BKN high level clouds
continue to stream into the region today into tonight. Winds
become ENE 5-10 kt today before diminishing to aob 5 kt tonight.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through at
least Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week,
but confidence remains low.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions persist through mid-week before a potential
weather system approaches.

A broad area of high pressure continues to center itself over the
region early this morning. NE winds are currently 10 knots or less
and will remain so throughout the day today. Seas are still slightly
elevated across the southern coastal waters, with buoys reporting 4-
5ft seas along the NC waters. These will gradually subside to ~3ft
later today. High pressure will remain in control of our weather
through mid-week allowing benign marine conditions to persist. Seas
will be 2 feet across the northern coastal waters and 3 feet down
south, with waves in the Bay around 1 foot. Winds will become more
easterly on Monday, but stay ~5-10kt with occasional gusts to 15
kt.

Keeping an eye on a potential weather system approaching late in the
week. This could bring our first rain chances in weeks, as well as
southeasterly winds, though confidence is a bit lower. Additionally,
a building swell from the southeast may raise seas.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JKP