Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

425
FXUS61 KAKQ 180300
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1000 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered temperatures Thursday, especially across the north and
northeast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer today and Wednesday with dry weather expected. A back door
front drops south and southwestward on Thursday with lower temperatures
expected across the north and northeast portions of the area.

2) Several disturbances bring the chance for rain back to the area
Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Warmer today and Wednesday with dry weather expected. A back
door front drops south and southwestward on Thursday with lower
temperatures expected across the north and northeast portions of
the area.

Surface analysis shows high pressure along the Carolina coast with a
rapidly deepening surface low over northeast WY/southeast MT. Some
lingering low stratus remains across the Eastern Shore with the
remainder of the area seeing clear or mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures are (not surprisingly) closely tied to the degree of
sunshine a given location has seen today. Temps are in the upper 50s
and low 60s west of I-95, with cooler low/mid 50s to the east and
low 40s for the Eastern Shore. Some high clouds move back into the
region from the NW later this afternoon and especially tonight.
Upper ridging builds NE from the Gulf on Wednesday but skies remain
partly to mostly cloudy. South and southwest winds will still allow
temps to rise into the 60s for most of the area. Some upper 60s and
low 70s are likely across the southern third of the area with mid
and upper 50s for the Eastern Shore. While the vast majority of the
area will be dry on Wednesday, a few showers are possible, mainly
for the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck.

Latest guidance brings a back door front into the area from the
northeast on Thursday with cooler temps behind the boundary. In
coordination with neighboring offices, have lowered temperatures
considerably on Thursday ranging from mid 40s for the Eastern Shore
to the 60s for areas roughly along and south of US 460. Further
refinements to temperatures Thursday are likely in subsequent
forecast cycles. PoPs also increase on Thursday, especially for
areas along and north of where the front eventually stalls, which at
this time looks to be near US 460.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Several disturbances bring the chance for rain back
to the area Thursday into the weekend.

The aforementioned front meanders near and south of the local area
Friday into the upcoming weekend. Several disturbances aloft will
allow periods of rain across the region. Specifics are unclear in
the guidance but there is general agreement showing a wave moving
across the area Friday which appears to impact the northern half of
the area. A stronger disturbance aloft and strengthening coastal low
may impact the region Sunday into Monday with the potential for more
widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds,
especially near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail at all of the terminals with SCT-BKN high
clouds. VFR conditions will continue through the period with
CIGs no lower than 8000-10000 ft. There is a low chc of a few
hours worth of IFR CIGs at SBY between 03-10z due to marine
stratus. However, this most likely remains confined to near the
immediate coast. Light and variable winds are expected tonight.
A brief period of LLWS is forecast toward sunrise on Wed at RIC.
SW winds resume on Wed.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions persist through midweek. A weak
backdoor cold front likely impacts the region Thursday-Friday,
bringing showers and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1000 PM EST Tuesday...

- Small Craft Advisories continue for the southern coastal
  waters through Wednesday evening.

- A marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 1 AM
  Wednesday for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island.

- A backdoor cold front is likely to drop across the local waters
  early Thursday with the wind shifting to E-NE.

High pressure was centered off the Southeast coast this
evening. The wind was primarily SW 5-10kt with 10-15kt
offshore. Seas remain elevated ranging from 3-4ft N to 4-6ft S.
SCAs have been cancelled for the coastal waters north of Cape
Charles Light. SCAs have been extended through Wed evening for
the coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light. Marine fog has
persisted off the Lower MD and VA Eastern Shore with
visibilities dropping to 1/4 of a mile at Ocean City. As such, a
marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 1 AM
Wednesday for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island.
Marine fog is expected to gradually dissipate and lift north
overnight. However, model guidance continues to trend later for
improving conditions. As such, we will need to reevaluate
before 1 AM to see if extensions in the advisory are warranted.

High pressure settles farther off the Southeast coast tonight
through Wednesday as low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes
into the Northeast. The pressure gradient will tighten and a SW
wind will increase to ~15kt and 15-20kt for the ocean during the
day Wednesday. A warm airmass over cold water will limit low-
level mixing and should result in more laminar (less gusty)
flow. Regardless, marginal SCA conditions are possible,
especially for the rivers and lower Ches Bay. Additional marine
fog/stratus is possible overnight into Wednesday morning,
leaning more toward stratus and 1-3nm vsby given increasing
wind. Additionally, seas may nudge back up to 4-5ft out near
20nm Wednesday aftn/evening. Given the expectation of marginal
SCA conditions and some uncertainty with regard to fog/stratus
(which would limit shallow mixing) have opted to wait on any
additional SCAs at this time.

Low pressure moves off the Southern New England coast Wednesday
evening, with a backdoor cold front dropping across the Mid-Atlantic
coast early Thursday. The wind will shift to ENE and should largely
be sub-SCA. This front lifts back N as a warm front Thursday night
into early Friday. The pressure gradient may tighten enough to build
seas to 4-6ft N of Chincoteague Thursday night into Friday morning.
Another cold front drops across the coast early Saturday. Low
pressure then tracks along this boundary and strengthens in vicinity
of the Carolina Coast Saturday night and off the Mid-Atlantic coast
Sunday, with strong CAA developing in its wake. SCA conditions are
likely in NW flow for the entire marine area, with gale conditions
possible for the coastal waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...ERI/RHR
MARINE...AJZ/RMM