Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

881
FXUS61 KAKQ 171833
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
233 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm weather and chances for showers and storms start today and
continue into the weekend.

2) A gradual pattern change with increased rain chances and cooler
temperatures evolves during the early to middle portion of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm weather and chances for showers and storms
start today and continue into the weekend.

GOES water vapor channels continue to depict a strong upper
ridge centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, with a
flattened trough sliding ESE across the Great Lakes. At the
surface, high pressure is centered from along the Southeast
coast to off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a cold front well to
our NW over the Ohio Valley. Mostly sunny and warm with
temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. There is a line of
showers/tstms that has developed across northern VA in vicinity
of a lee side trough. This activity is expected to push SE into
NW portions of the CWA over the next few hours, before rapidly
dissipating by this evening and struggling to reach a line from
the Richmond metro to Salisbury. Otherwise, partly cloudy and
mild tonight with low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

By Friday, the cold front passes through the area early in the
morning as a high pressure builds south out of the Great Lakes.
CAMs continue to hint at some post-frontal showers/tstms, mainly
over the SW half of the area. Will note, QPF with this activity
is minimal (0.1 to 0.25" across the far SW). In addition to the
showers, with the front moving through the morning temperatures
may struggle to warm especially across the north. High
temperatures Friday likely range from the low to mid 80s N and
upper 80s to possible 90F S. Mostly dry and somewhat cooler
(more seasonal) on Saturday behind the front with highs around
80F/lower 80s. The front likely lifts back to the N as a warm
front Sunday. Still mainly dry Sunday with only low chc PoPs NW.
Warmer with high temperatures in the lower 80s at the coast to
the mid/upper 80s inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A gradual pattern change with increased rain
chances and cooler temperatures evolves during the early to
middle portion of next week.

A gradual pattern change begins to evolve by early next week.
Another cold front slowly slides S across the region Monday into
Monday night. There is a chc of showers/tstms with deeper
moisture in place and high temperatures ranging from around 80F
N to the mid/upper 80s S. A decent synoptic agreement continues
from the ECMWF, CMC, AND GFS ensembles showing a strong upper
level ridge building over Hudson Bay. At the surface, this
allows for the potential of a strong high pressure to center
itself over Eastern Canada into northern New England. This
pattern would lead to onshore flow, higher rain chances, and
cooler temperatures by Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure was centered off the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina
coast as of 18z. Meanwhile, a cold front was approaching from
the NW. VFR under a mostly sunny sky with a 5-10kt S/SSW wind
and locally E/SE along the coast. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail tonight through Friday. Aftn/evening showers/tstms
ahead of the cold front are expected to largely dissipate before
reaching RIC/SBY this evening. Otherwise, partly to mostly
cloudy overnight with passing mid level clouds and a light SSW
wind. The cold front slides across the region late tonight/early
Friday morning with the wind shifting to N/NW 5-10kt. A few
showers/tstms are possible Friday aftn, mainly W and SW of a
line from RIC to ECG.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail Friday night
through the upcoming weekend outside of any localized shallow
ground fog. Another cold front slowly crosses the region Monday
into Tuesday as high pressure builds across northern New England
and Atlantic Canada. This will bring more unsettled conditions
with degraded flight conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday..

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are forecast through the weekend,
  but increasing southerly winds prevail tonight ahead of a cold
  front, with elevated NE to E winds later Friday through
  Saturday.

- Decent model consensus that strong high pressure becomes
  locked in place across eastern Canada/northern New England
  next week, bringing several days of onshore flow and the
  potential for strong SCAs or Gales.

High pressure remains in place across the local waters early
this morning, with light winds and seas 2-3 ft in NC, and
generally ~2 ft elsewhere (waves 1 ft or less in the Bay,
rivers/sound). Later this aftn into tonight, S-SE winds will
increase to 10 to 15 knots ahead of an approaching cold front.
Afternoon models have trended quicker with the frontal passage
on Friday, now forecast to cross the waters Friday morning into
the early afternoon. In the wake of the front, winds become N-NW
and average 10 to 15 knots with strong high pressure situated
to our north. Gusts to 20 knots will likely be possible at some
sites across the Chesapeake Bay Friday afternoon-evening, but
likely not frequent enough to warrant SCAs. In addition, local
wind probs for SCA conditions are only hovering around 10 to 15%
(max). As we head into Saturday, winds become E-NE and remain
elevated to around 10 to 15 knots across all waters. Winds
become southerly later Saturday night into Sunday and decrease.

By late Monday or Tuesday, the synoptic pattern looks to support
a much more active marine setup for the local area, as strong
sfc high pressure builds across eastern Canada (normalized
anomalies are >2 std dev for the sfc high), with low pressure
lingering off the SE coast. This is still several days out, but
there is quite strong consensus amongst the Euro, GFS, and
Canadian ensembles in this pattern. At least strong SCAs appear
probable for much of the week, with a decent chance at Gales, so
we will continue to monitor the trends as this gets closer in
time.

The rip current risk will be Moderate for the NC beaches today
where seas ~2.5 ft linger w/ ~8 sec. periods, but low elsewhere
as the swell becomes more from the SE and seas are ~2 ft. A Low
risk is forecast Friday, with a Moderate for Saturday as the
flow becomes onshore once again.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJB/LKB