Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

025
FXUS61 KAKQ 081123
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
623 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and a passing disturbance aloft brings the chance
for snow to much of the area today, with the heaviest snow
looking to occur along and just south of I-64. Drying out and
becoming much colder tonight and Tuesday. Milder Wednesday and
Thursday, with shower chances increasing with the next strong
cold front next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 530 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Winter Storm Warnings now in effect for much of central VA
  over to portions of eastern VA.

- Winter Weather Advisories expanded to include the remainder of
  VA and northeast NC.

Early morning IR/WV imagery reveals broad upper level troughing
over the east coast, with a pair of embedded H5 troughs pushing
toward the area in W-SW flow aloft. At the surface, low
pressure over the eastern TN Valley and its associated strong
surface cold front have pushed into northern portions of the
local area, bringing markedly colder air and another round of
wintry precip to the region later today.

Of course, the biggest weather challenge of the day is the
impending wintry weather. Strong (~1030 mb) sfc high pressure to
the north will remain favorably located across NY state to
supply a good feed of cold/dry air into the region today.
Meanwhile the previously referenced mid-level shortwave and its
associated sfc low, swing east across the Carolinas today,
pushing offshore tonight, providing ample forcing for ascent.
This will promote a swath of precip crossing at least the
southern half to two thirds of the area. The 00z model suite
continued to hone in on a narrow band of higher QPF embedded
within this regime of broad WAA/overrunning moisture. Overall,
taking strong CAA and the arriving moisture into account, it is
easy to see why models are becoming increasingly aggressive with
snow totals for much of the region on Monday. QPF has tightened
up a bit with this model suite, and is now varying from around
0.10" across the far northern tier of the local area, with a
bulls-eye of 0.20-0.40" overall encompassing mainly the US-60
and US-460 corridors in central and south central VA.

Given the strong CAA that will come quickly on the heels of the
frontal passage, continued to undercut NBM by a few degrees,
closer to a time-lagged HRRR/NAM 3km look, with yields a thermal
profile that holds temps more or less steady this morning, then
falling as best slug of overrunning moisture arrives this
afternoon. Precipitation begins as snow across the piedmont, and
a light rain- snow mix along the I-95 corridor and points
eastward. Dynamical cooling will take over from there,
facilitating a very quick progression to primarily snow from NW
to SE in the 8-10 am period inland, reaching the coast by early
afternoon and southside Hampton Roads and NE NC by the start of
the evening commute time.

In terms of headlines: Winter Storm Warnings have been expanded
slightly to the E-SE into the peninsula and western portions of
Southside Hampton Roads. Given the aforementioned QPF, and cold
temperatures aloft that should outrun standard 10:1 ratios,
especially late morning and afternoon as CAA strengthens, have
trended snow totals a bit higher into the 3-5" range for the
narrow corridor that swings from US-60/I-64 south/southeast to
US-460. As is often the case, there remains some uncertainty on
the periphery of the warning. It is possible that some locally
higher totals occur from Hanover to King William/Gloucester
County, with the same also true for Mecklenburg County farther
to the south. However, on an areal/county average basis, expect
these counties remain more or less in the 1-3" range, and will
keep the Winter Wx Advisory in place there and for all counties
locally that are not in the Winter Storm Warning, with the
exception of the MD Lower Eastern Shore and coastal Currituck
County (NC).

Very cold air moves into the region tonight with low temps in
the low to mid teens west of I-95 with upper teens to the
low/mid 20s to the east. Inland winds drop off by Tue AM, so
not anticipating wind chills to be much below actual air
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cold Tuesday, followed by short-lived milder
  temperatures on Wednesday.

Continued cold Tuesday with most inland areas likely not
warming out of the 30s, with low 40s in the SE. Not as cold Tue
night, and turning milder Wed as a deep upper trough amplifies
across central Canada, with low pressure tracking through the
Great Lakes. This allows for an increasing SW low level flow
Wed, with highs into the 50s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM EST Monday...

- Trending cooler Thursday, with low-end precip chances Friday,
  possibly ending as some wintry precip.

- Dry, but again turning sharply colder next weekend.

Medium range models and ensembles remain in decent agreement
that the later week timeframe trends colder with increasing
rain chances Thursday night/Friday as the next system impacts
the region. Precip potentially changes over to a rain/snow mix
before ending Friday night. Next weekend looks dry and cold as
another Arctic cold front crosses Sat, once again ushering in
cold high pressure from the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 615 AM EST MONDAY...

A cold front is crossing the area this morning and will cause
northerly winds to increase over the next few hours. Any
lingering fog will diminish as well. During the day today, NNE
winds increase and become rather strong along the coast (gusting
to 25-30 kt at ORF), with winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt
elsewhere. Precipitation is expected to impact the area by
mid morning, bringing IFR to LIFR flight restrictions that will
last through the early evening. RIC and PHF should see mainly
snow from this event, but ORF/ECG are likely to see a period
with -RA before changing over to snow later in the aftn, with
snow as the main p-type this evening for any remaining precip
that will linger along the coast. SBY will likely also see a
period of snow this afternoon, though still have lower
confidence due to northern edge of precipitation being nearby
for most of the day. VIS will be greatly reduced in the SN
today. Rain/snow chances gradually come to an end west to east
after 03-06Z. NNE winds will remain breezy at the coast through
Tues morning.

Outlook: VFR, with diminishing winds Tue afternoon, then winds
become SW and breezy on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- A Gale Warning is in effect today for the coastal waters south of
Parramore Island, including the Currituck Sound and Mouth of the
Chesapeake Bay, with Small Craft Advisories in effect in the
remaining waters.

- Another system will bring degraded marine conditions to the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by additional elevated winds
by the end of the week into the weekend.

Early morning surface analysis indicates high pressure and light
winds persisting across the waters, but that will change very
shortly as a cold front crosses the area. Winds will turn N/NE after
4am and increase in speed as daybreak approaches as the gradient
tightens between high pressure building in from the north and an
area of low pressure moving northeast off the Carolina coast. That
gradient combined with CAA behind the front will allow winds to
increase to 20-25kt for most of the waters, with gusts to 30 kt by
late morning/mid-day. Rivers will see winds of 15-20kt with gusts to
25 kt. Thus, Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Tuesday
morning. For coastal waters south of Parramore Island, the mouth of
the Bay, and Currituck Sound, guidance continues to show higher
speeds as the low passes nearby. NE winds of 25-30kt with gusts to
35-40kt are expected, warranting a Gale Warning for these waters.
This is in effect from 9am through midnight tonight. A few gale-
force gusts can`t be ruled out outside of the Warning, especially
for the coastal zone from Chincoteague to Parramore Island, but it
will be a short enough duration to use SMWs to cover if necessary.
Waves in the Bay today will increase to 3-4ft, with 4-5ft in the
mouth of the Bay. Seas will build to 6-7ft north and 7-9ft across
the south.

High pressure will build in across the waters later Monday night
into Tuesday allowing the winds to quickly diminish. Gales and wind-
driven SCAs will be allowed to expire by daybreak Tuesday. Southern
waters may need a lingering SCA into part of Tuesday for 5ft seas.
SW winds will remain light through the day before they increase once
again as a warm front lifts across the area and a strong low
pressure system advances northeastward across the Great Lakes. Winds
will continue to strengthen into the day on Wednesday. Local wind
probabilities have a 60-95% chance for wind gusts >=34kt for the
coastal waters north of Parramore Island (highest farther offshore
between 15-20nm). With 40-60% from Parramore Island to Cape Charles.
Strongest winds look to be mid/late morning Wednesday through the
afternoon/early evening. Solid SCAs are expected for most of the
waters, with gales possible in the aforementioned zones. Expect
waves in the Bay to become 3-4ft again with seas building to 5-7ft
(highest north). As the low pressure lifts well north of the area on
Thursday afternoon, winds will diminish to 10-15 kts through Friday
morning. Yet another system is progged to approach the region by
late week, bringing possibly another round of strong to near-gale
conditions to the area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
     this evening for NCZ012>014-030.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight
     EST tonight for NCZ015>017-031-032.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
     this evening for VAZ084-086-096-099-525.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight
     EST tonight for VAZ095-097-098-100.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ048-
     062-064-065-075>078-085-509>512-517>522.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ060-
     061-066>069-079>083-513>516.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
     evening for VAZ087>090-092-093-523-524.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-650-
     652.
     Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ633-634-654-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ635>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/JKP
MARINE...NB/JKP