Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

699
FXUS61 KAKQ 070820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dense Fog Advisory in effect for portions of southeast Virginia
and northeast North Carolina through 10 AM this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of fog, locally dense, will clear later this morning as the
backdoor cold front climbs back north. Mild and mainly dry weather
is expected by this afternoon.

2) Showers are likely Sunday ahead of a cold front Sunday, with
thunderstorms also favored for southern Virginia and northeast North
Carolina. A few storms could produce gusty winds and hail.

3) Warmth continues into the middle of next week before a stronger
cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday.
Cooler temperatures return to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of fog, locally dense, will clear later this
morning as the backdoor cold front climbs back north. Mild and
mainly dry weather is expected by this afternoon.

The entire area is on the cool side of the backdoor cold front this
morning, entrenched in widespread low stratus and fog. Fog has
become dense across SE VA and NE NC and particularly so near the
coast of the bay and ocean. Therefore, have issued a Dense Fog
Advisory through 10 AM. Model guidance remains aggressive in
suggesting dense fog reaches the I-95 corridor over the next few
hours, so will keep a close eye on webcams and observations and
expand the advisory if necessary.

An upper trough and associated cold front will approach the area
from the OH Valley later today. This should provide a sufficient
synoptic "push" to scour the maritime airmass, with a significant
warmup expected for most areas. Still, these cool and moist low-
levels can be stubborn and it will be a gradual process.
Interior/inland portions of the area will warm up first, likely into
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Further N and NE, it will take more time
and high temperatures will be lower on the Northern Neck (low-mid
70s) and especially Eastern Shore (60s). Skies will initially be
overcast everywhere, followed by a clearing trend across the W and
SW early this afternoon, and then for areas along the coast and
Eastern Shore later this afternoon and evening.

While most of the area stays dry today with the front and synoptic
forcing to our W, there`s a low-end chance that a shower or storm
spills into our Piedmont counties from the higher terrain late this
afternoon and evening. This would seem more likely if we can warm
and moisten up quicker, which would allow for some marginal
instability to develop. Poor run-to-run and model-to-model
consistency across the CAMs casts uncertainty on this and thus will
only have a 20% in the forecast at this time. Showers become a bit
more widespread later tonight as a decaying line of convection from
the front moves through. However, no thunderstorms are expected
during this timeframe with negligible CAPE in forecast soundings.
Very mild tonight with lows in in the 60s (50s Eastern Shore).


KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers are likely Sunday ahead of a cold front
Sunday, with thunderstorms also favored for southern Virginia and
northeast North Carolina. A few storms could produce gusty winds and
hail.

The cold front will be weakening and crawling at a slow pace as it
drops through the area Sunday. Most of the area should see, at
the very least, a shower or two. However, it definitely will
not be raining all day. PoPs are highest from sunrise through
the early afternoon. There is more uncertainty later in the day
as additional showers or storms potentially develop across
southern VA and NE NC. This potential is dependent on a slower
frontal passage which would allow for a more robust warm sector
to collocate with frontal passage. Should this occur, a few
strong to locally severe storms could develop given around 1000
J/kg of SBCAPE and around 30 kt of bulk shear. Localized
damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail would be the
favored threats; low-level shear magnitudes and SRH do not favor
tornadoes at this time. SPC has maintained a Marginal (Level 1
out 5) risk for severe wx. Outside of any showers/storms,
another mild day is on tap with highs in the mid-upper 70s W of
the Chesapeake Bay (a few 80s possible SE VA/NE NC) and in the
upper 60s to lower 70s on the Eastern Shore.

The front will stall and gradually dissipate S of the forecast area
Monday. A mainly dry day is expected but there is a low chance
isolated showers redevelop over NE NC in the afternoon. High
temps rise into the mid-upper 70s inland. Cooler along the coast
with light flow favoring an afternoon sea breeze.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmth continues into the middle of next week before
a stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into
Thursday. Cooler temperatures return to end the week.

Well above average temperatures continue into next week, likely
peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread (inland) high
temperatures in the low 80s possible. Based on the current forecast,
record high temperatures will be in reach at RIC and potentially
ORF. Both sites have current record highs in the low 80s on both
Tuesday and Wednesday; the forecast high of 84 F at RIC on Wed
would break to 82 F record set in 1990.

There in increasing confidence in a stronger cold front approaching
later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for
widespread showers (and potentially thunderstorms). There could be a
severe weather potential with the front Wednesday into Thursday, but
the timing of the frontal passage (overnight Wednesday or early
Thursday) currently looks to keep this threat limited. Temperatures
return to closer to normal or below normal later in the week, though
definitely not atypical for March.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Saturday...

A backdoor cold front is SW of all terminals this morning, with
widespread IFR-LIFR CIGs and VSBY N of the boundary. Winds are
5-10 kt out of the E-NE. Fog, potentially dense, and LIFR/VLIFR
CIGs are expected through at least 14z. The front will gradually
lift back N after sunrise and conditions gradually improve
through the morning. However, this could be a slow process and
have maintained low stratus through the early aftn for all
terminals, before improvement to VFR thereafter. SBY likely
remains IFR all day though could briefly scatter out there
around 21z. The front should be N of the area by this evening
and tonight with SW winds increasing to ~10 kt. SW LLWS is
possible after 00z at RIC and SBY.

Outlook: Isolated showers are possible late tonight into Sunday
morning, with more widespread showers (and potential
thunderstorms) possible Sunday. Mainly VFR Monday through much
of Wednesday. A stronger front approaches later Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisories are in effect for all waters
  until 10 AM this morning.

- Sub-SCA winds are expected today. SCAs have been issued for
  the northern coastal waters and middle/upper bay tonight for
  S-SW winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt and 4-6 foot seas.

-Sub-SCA conditions are expected from Sunday-Wednesday morning.

The backdoor front that has been lingering near the area this week
remains just to the south of the local waters early this morning,
with NE winds of 5-10 kt prevailing at this hour. Dense fog with
VSBYs of 1/2-1 NM continues, and advisories have been extended until
10 AM for all waters. VSBYs may drop to 1/4 NM or less between 3-9
AM as winds diminish by a few knots. The fog will gradually lift
from southwest to northeast today as the front gradually retreats to
the north. S winds around 10 kt are expected by this afternoon. The
fog should lift by midday south of Windmill Pt/Parramore Island, but
will likely persist through much of the day farther north
(especially near Ocean City). S-SW winds will continue to increase
this evening-tonight as the front retreats well to our north. Wind
speeds of 15-20 kt are expected (highest N), with peak winds
occurring between 10 PM-5 AM. Have issued SCAs for the coastal
waters N of Cape Charles (mainly for 4-6 ft seas...though gusts
around 25 kt are also likely). Went ahead and issued SCAs for the
bay N of New Pt Comfort as well for frequent 20-25 kt gusts. Held
off on headlines farther south as winds are forecast to be a few
knots less and seas likely won`t build to 5 ft given the S-SW flow.
SW winds diminish during the day on Sunday, with light/variable
winds expected Sunday night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected from
Monday-Wednesday AM. The next chance of (solid) SCAs is later Wed
into Thursday both ahead of and behind a stronger cold front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ013>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ084-086-
     088>090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI