Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

753
FXUS61 KAKQ 011022
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
622 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion.

There is a Marginal (Level 1 out 5) Risk for severe storms this
later this afternoon into this evening, covering roughly the
northern third of the forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The warm weather continues with even a few record highs possible.
Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to scattered shower or
thunderstorm chances, with the highest chance being this later today
into tonight.

2) A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms
Easter Sunday.

3) Increased fire danger conditions continue across portions of
interior northeast North Carolina today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The warm weather continues with even a few record
highs possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to
scattered shower or thunderstorm chances, with the highest chance
being this later today into tonight.

Early this morning, high pressure remains situated well offshore,
with deep layer SW flow continuing over the Carolinas and Mid-
Atlantic. Very mild this morning by early April standards with many
areas still in the mid 60s to around 70.

The ridge continues to build today, meanwhile a potent shortwave
ejects out of the Rocky Mountains. This will support very warm
temperatures today, with highs expected to range from the mid to
upper 80s for many locations west of the Chesapeake Bay
(slightly cooler along the immediate coast and Eastern Shore).
There is potential for tying or exceeding record highs at a
majority of the climate sites with the current forecast
generally within 1 to 2 degrees of current records (see climate
section below for more details). At the surface, an expansive
stationary front is expected to range from the northern Mid-
Atlantic westward into the Intermountain West. Most models
continue to show the aforementioned boundary dropping a bit
southward later this afternoon into tonight. Additionally, a sfc
trough will likely be present just E of the higher terrain of
WV and VA. This is expected to initiate widely scattered showers
and storms this afternoon to our N and W. Depending on exact
storm-scale processes and associated boundary interactions, some
of this activity should spread eastward into the VA Piedmont
and MD Eastern Shore by the evening hours. Main limitations to
stronger/widespread convective activity continue to include: 1)
neutral to slightly positive height tendencies, 2) lack of
appreciable mid/upper-level forcing, and 3) a potential capping
inversion, especially S. Regardless, some CAPE and shear will be
present, which could support a stronger storm or two. With most
of the 00z CAMs showing scattered convective coverage,
especially across the northern half of the area. SPC has
maintained a Marginal (level 1 out 5) Risk across roughly the
northern third of the forecast area (including much of the RIC
metro). Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat due to
steep low-level lapse rates, though marginally severe hail could
also occur with moderate shear in the mid levels. Additionally,
locally heavy rainfall may be possible due to the potential for
some training activity. Some CAMs show pockets of 1-3" of QPF
through tonight and some minor flooding may be possible
depending on where it falls.

The sfc boundary advances back to the N Thursday and remains to our
N through Saturday. Therefore, the probability for any measurable
precip is quite low and generally confined to the far W and N,
mainly in the form of a rogue shower/storm approaching from the W.
In terms of temps, most areas should solidly warm into the 80s
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. A backdoor cold front will reside on
the doorstep of the MD Eastern Shore Thursday. Most guidance keeps
the cooler airmass just to the NE, but still expect locally cooler
conditions here and especially at the immediate coast. Otherwise,
widespread warmth is expected areawide.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or
thunderstorms Easter Sunday. Much cooler early next week.

The expansive ridge over the area begins to break down later this
weekend as a low pressure system strengthens over the Northern
Plains/Great Lakes, sending a stronger cold front our way. Timing
details have started to firm up a bit, with the current consensus
depicts a line of showers or storms moving through Sunday afternoon
into Sunday evening. Still some questions in regards to the
thunderstorm potential, but with the strength of the front, cannot
rule out the potential for strong to severe storms. Machine-
learning/AI models highlight at least a low-end potential for a few
stronger storms. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast if you
have outdoor activities planned for the holiday. With the slightly
quicker potential arrival of the front, high temperatures have
trended down slightly for Sunday, ranging from the lower-mid 70s NW
to the lower 80s across the far S/SE. Much cooler on Monday and
Tuesday with high temperatures only in the 50s and 60s. There is the
potential for some frost/freeze headlines Monday night/Tuesday AM
with low temperatures falling back into the 30s for portions of the
area.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Increased fire danger conditions continue across
portions of interior northeast North Carolina today.

The combination of relative humidity values in the 40 to 45 percent
range, dry fine fuels, ongoing moderate to severe drought, and wind
gusts up to 20 mph will result in an increased risk for the rapid
spread of wildfires today across portions of interior northeast
North Carolina west of the Chowan River.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 620 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions to start off the 12z/01 TAF period. Mainly clear
skies across most of the area this morning, though SCT-BKN mid
level clouds have developed across NE NC into far SE VA.
Scattered diurnal cumulus develops this later this morning into
this afternoon, with isolated to scattered showers/tstms
possible at RIC/SBY during the late afternoon into the overnight
hours. Continued and refined the PROB30 group for TSRA late
this afternoon into tonight for both of these terminals. Rain
chances likely continue into the overnight hours at SBY and
potentially RIC, with less chances across the southern
terminals. There is the potential for MVFR CIGs to develop early
Thursday AM with the best chance at SBY (cannot rule out brief
IFR as well). Winds will be less gusty compared to yesterday,
though we will still see SW gusts ~20 knots this morning
through this afternoon before diminishing this evening and
tonight.

Outlook: Mainly VFR through Saturday. Isolated afternoon
showers/storms will be possible Thursday through Saturday,
though PoPs are lower than they are today. A better chance for
widespread showers is expected along a cold front Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions expected during the day, especially close to
land, but with winds diminishing throughout the day.

- An additional round of S to SW surge is expected tonight and
Thursday night/Friday morning, but should remain below SCA
thresholds.

Potent high pressure remains centered over the central North
Atlantic Ocean, and a low pressure system is centered over the
eastern Great Lakes early this morning. The pressure gradient
remains tightened between these two features, with SW flow
prevailing early this morning. SW winds are currently 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt across the local waters. SCAs are in effect until 7
AM for the Ches. Bay, tidal rivers, and the northern coastal waters.
The gradient will begin to relax during the day today, allowing SW
winds to diminish slightly to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Another surge of S-SW winds is expected again tonight, but will
likely be weaker from the decreasing pressure gradient, as the low
pressure weakens and moves north. Local wind probs for the Ches. Bay
only show a 30% chance of gusts to 18 kt and probs for the coastal
waters only show a 20% chance of gusts to 25 kt, so additional
headlines are not expected at this time. Another marginal surge is
possible Thursday night into Friday morning as well. Otherwise,
benign marine conditions through the week with the next best chance
for SCA conditions coming late this weekend as a front moves through
the local waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs through Saturday, 4/4.

Richmond: Record High:

Wed (4/1)           88/1978
Thu (4/2)           89/1967
Fri (4/3)           93/1963
Sat (4/4)           87/2011

Norfolk:            Record High:

Wed (4/1)           83/2016
Thu (4/2)           87/1967
Fri (4/3)           91/1963
Sat (4/4)           86/2025

Salisbury:          Record High:

Wed (4/1)           83/1978
Thu (4/2)           85/1967
Fri (4/3)           86/1963
Sat (4/4)           83/1999

Elizabeth City:     Record High:

Wed (4/1)           84/2024
Thu (4/2)           86/2014
Fri (4/3)           89/1967
Sat (4/4)           88/2025

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ012-013-030.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634>638-650-652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...KMC/NB
CLIMATE...AJB