Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

368
FXUS61 KAKQ 121831
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
231 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore gradually drifts south through the week,
allowing for seasonably warm and humid conditions to continue.
Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms
continue through the week with lower chances this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and a few storms expected this afternoon and evening,
  mainly across the southern third of the area.

Afternoon analysis shows high pressure offshore with an upper trough
noted over the upper Midwest. Temperatures have warmed into the mid
and upper 80s with partly cloudy skies after a thicker morning
stratus deck mixed out.

Scattered showers and storms are once again expected this afternoon
and evening, with the highest coverage mainly near and south of the
VA/NC border with only isolated coverage at best along/N of I-64.
Effective shear is highest across the south at ~25 knots with shear
decreasing to the north. PW values have increased a bit today with
areas south of I-64 rising above 2". So any storms that manage to
form will be capable of locally heavy rainfall and the potential for
localized flash flooding. WPC has maintained a Marginal ERO along
and south of a line from Farmville ESE toward the US 58 corridor and
into NE NC. Severe storms are not expected but brief gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall will accompany the stronger storms this
afternoon/early evening. Any storms are expected to weaken and
dissipate after the loss of heating this evening. Additional showers
are possible late tonight into early Wednesday across the southern
half of the area. Overnight lows dip into the low to mid 70s under
partly to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity increase slightly Wednesday/Thursday,
  but max heat indices generally remain at or below 100F.

- Daily chances for scattered showers and storms continue. Locally
  heavy rainfall is possible.

The ridge aloft continues to break down/become suppressed to the S
on Wed while a shortwave near the base of the larger upper trough is
progged to track from western NC through srn VA/NE NC during the
day/evening. Seasonably hot and humid wx is expected w/ highs once
again in the mid-upper 80s (some locations may approach 90F). With
the shortwave tracking through the area, more widespread clouds and
storm coverage is expected Wed aftn/evening across most of the area.
Again, there is a threat for localized flooding (WPC Marginal Risk
for the entire area) with a very low but nonzero chc for a damaging
wind gust or two. Diurnal weakening is expected Wed night with
warm/humid wx continuing (lows in the lower 70s). A (very) weak
front (mainly a wind shift) approaches from the north on
Thursday...which will increase surface convergence and allow for
another round of isolated-scattered aftn/evening tstms with the
typical summertime threats for highly localized flooding/damaging
wind gusts. Slightly warmer on Thu with highs into the upper 80s to
around 90F. Max heat indices should still remain aob 100F...so no
heat headlines are anticipated. Similar conditions are expected on
Friday but with lower coverage of showers and storms during the
afternoon/evening as low level flow becomes N or NE behind the weak
boundary and heights increase aloft. Dew points are forecast to fall
off by a degree or two as well so not expecting any heat headlines
with temps mainly in the upper 80s. Lows Friday night fall into the
upper 60s to around 70 degrees as somewhat drier air filters into
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm weather continues through the weekend and into
  early next week.

- Chance for diurnal showers and a few storms continues Saturday
  with little to no convection expected Sun-Mon.

Upper ridging builds back over the eastern CONUS through the
weekend, while the low-level flow becomes onshore. Meanwhile, sfc
high pressure shifts from New England to off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
This will allow for decreasing shower/tstm chances from Sat-Mon.
Seasonably warm conditions will continue with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s each day and lows in the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s.
Model/ensemble consensus shows TC Erin tracking to a position well
off the FL coast by the end of the period (Tues). Local impacts from
Erin (direct or indirect) would be after Day 7. Of course, the
future track is highly uncertain this far out but the guidance
consensus favors a recurving storm well offshore with potential wave
and rip current impacts to the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday...

SCT-BKN CU linger this afternoon across the region with a
mixture of VFR and MVFR CIGs (2000-4000 ft). Scattered showers
have begun to develop across portions of S VA and NE NC. This
shower activity is expected to increase in coverage as it slowly
spreads N and E through the afternoon. As convection matures,
thunder is possible as well. Therefore, have added PROB30s to
the ORF/PHF/ECG tafs from 20-24z to account for this potential.
Will note that confidence is low-moderate for showers/storms at
any given terminal which is why PROB30s were issued instead of
TEMPOs. Convection tapers off this evening, however, cannot rule
out an isolated shower at ORF/ECG overnight. Additionally,
cannot rule out an isolated shower today at RIC, however,
confidence is too low to reflect in the taf. Cloud cover lingers
through the night with MVFR stratus possible at PHF/ORF/ECG from
9-13z Wed.

Outlook: Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms continue through the week. MVFR CIGs will continue to be
possible through the week with potentially IFR CIGs and/or VIS
(due to fog) possible near sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

- Winds and seas become elevated by the middle of next week with
  SCA conditions possible.

High pressure was centered off the East Coast this afternoon. This
high gradually drifts south through the week, allowing for benign
marine conditions to continue. Winds this afternoon were generally S
5-10 kt. Winds become southwest overnight, increasing to 10-15 kt
late Wed afternoon into Wed night. Winds become light (~5 kt) Thu,
eventually becoming NE 5-10 kt Fri behind a weak cold front. Winds
remain generally onshore through early next week. The next chance
for elevated winds, waves, and seas begins Tue into the middle of
next week as elevated onshore winds increase to potentially SCA
criteria. Will note that forecast uncertainty is high for the middle
of next week due to uncertainties with the track and intensity of
Tropical Storm Erin. As such, we will continue to monitor the system
as it is still over a week away from any potential impacts.

Waves and seas were 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this afternoon.
Waves and seas remain low through Sun. Seas begin to build next week
with SCA conditions possible by Tue (4-5 ft seas). Given 2 ft
nearshore waves and S/SW surface winds Wed and Thu, a Low Rip Risk
is expected across all area beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/RHR
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/RHR
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RMM