Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

259
FXUS61 KAKQ 242357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
757 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation section for 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers (and a few storms) continue this afternoon,
especially east of I-95 and north of I-64 as a backdoor cold
front moves slowly to the west and southwest.

2) Rain chances increase late Saturday into Saturday night as a cold
front and wave of low pressure move into the region. Showers linger
along the coast Sunday, along with cooler conditions for the entire
area. Dry weather returns to the area Monday.

3) There are several opportunities for rainfall next week as an
unsettled pattern potentially develops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers (and a few storms) continue this
afternoon, especially east of I-95 and north of I-64 as a backdoor
cold front moves slowly to the west and southwest.

Afternoon analysis shows a backdoor front over the Eastern Shore making
S and SW progress. Ahead of this boundary, widely scattered
showers and a few storms have developed. Forecast soundings show
increasingly dry low levels with westward extent, so expect the
relative highest convective coverage to be mainly east of I-95
and along and north of I-64. Given the degree of low level dry
air, any shower or storm has the potential to produce locally
gusty winds and perhaps even some small hail. Not expecting
either winds or hail to approach anything close to severe
thresholds today. Temperatures are mainly in the 80s ahead of
the front with some 70s along the Ches Bay and inland portions
of the Eastern Shore. Temps along the immediate coast near
Wallops and Ocean City have fallen into the 60s. Showers come to
an end this evening with lows overnight in the 50s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase late Saturday into Saturday
night as a cold front and wave of low pressure move into the region.
Showers linger along the coast Sunday, along with cooler conditions
for the entire area. Dry weather returns to the area Monday.

Dry conditions are likely for the area through Saturday morning.
Rain chances increase substantially later in the afternoon as low
pressure tracks along an approaching cold front. A few storms are
also possible in the vicinity of the low and front. Latest guidance
shows some meager/thin instability and veering winds with height
across the SE quarter of the area but no widespread strong to severe
storms are expected. Temperatures are expected to vary widely across
the local area with warmer readings expected S and SW with cooler
temps for NE portions of the area.

The trend toward a slower progression and stronger surface low have
continued in the guidance today. The bulk of the precip is expected
after sunset Saturday through the overnight. Higher PoPs are favored
east of 95 and near the coast during the daylight hours of Sunday.
Temps have trended substantially downward on Sunday with widespread
clouds/showers and NE winds. Highs range from the mid 50s N to the
mid and upper 60s S. 12z ensemble guidance is split with respect to
QPF across the region. The 12z EPS has actually trended downward for
probs of 0.5" or more while the 12z GEFS has trended upward (rather
significantly to 50-80% chances, mainly for central and eastern
portions of the area). The last several runs of the operational
ECMWF have shown a weaker low off the Delmarva and a stronger
secondary low off the NC coast later on Sunday. Any convective
enhancement to QPF would also favor higher totals and this aligns
well with the now ~10-30% probs for 1". Aerial QPF from our forecast
depicts 0.5-1" for the entire area. Still, this is far from a
drought-buster given the substantial rainfall deficits across our
area.


KEY MESSAGE 3...There are several opportunities for rainfall next
week as an unsettled pattern potentially develops.

Troughing may develop over most of the CONUS by the middle the later
half of next week, with several fronts and disturbances potentially
passing through the region. The latest CPC outlook favors slightly
above average rainfall in the 6-10 day period. 12z operational and
ensemble guidance shows another round of mainly light precip on
Tuesday with a potentially more substantial slug of moisture
expected late Wednesday. Specifics beyond this time are uncertain but
chance PoPs are in place through most of the week. Temperatures
generally hover around average for mid-late Spring with variable
cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Friday...

Primarily VFR conditions to start off the forecast period with
widely scattered showers (isolated thunderstorms) mainly in the
vicinity of RIC and SBY. Showers should gradually diminish over
the next few hours with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the night. MVFR
CIGs develop by mid to late morning Saturday at SBY along a
backdoor cold front. MVFR CIGs then linger at SBY throughout the
remainder of the forecast period. Low pressure approaches from
the west Saturday afternoon, bringing a chance for showers or
thunderstorms later Saturday afternoon and evening. Winds
average E to ESE ~10 knots through a majority of the forecast
period.

Outlook: MVFR to IFR CIGs develop at all sites Saturday night
into Sunday. High pressure builds to the N Sunday with an
onshore component to the wind persisting along the coast, which
could result in persistent lower CIGs. VFR and dry conditions
return by Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 140 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through
  tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected across
  the northern coastal waters on Saturday as easterly winds
  increase to around 20 kt.

- Solid SCA conditions expected Saturday night through Monday as
  low pressure deepens offshore. Gusts to Gale Force will be
  possible over the coastal waters Sunday into Sunday night.
  Gale Watches have been issued for all coastal waters north of
  the VA-NC border from Sunday morning through Sunday
  evening/Sunday night.

A backdoor cold front is crossing the waters this afternoon, with E-
NE winds of 10-15 kt over most of the waters (and lighter winds
south). Winds increase out of the E to near 10-15 kt by this evening
with gusts to 20 kt. The main concern through this evening is the
chance for isolated showers/tstms. While severe weather is unlikely,
the strongest storms could produce gusts of ~40 kt over the marine
area, necessitating SMWs. The threat for storms quickly diminishes
after sunset, with E-ESE winds around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt
expected for most of the night.

Low pressure begins developing along the front Saturday, with E
winds increasing to ~20 kt with gusts to 25 kt over the coastal
waters N of Cape Charles during the day. The highest winds will be
over the MD coastal waters. Sub-SCA SE winds are expected over the
southern coastal waters on Sat. The low pressure system deepens as
it pushes offshore late Saturday night and especially Sunday. This
will allow the front to move to the SE of the local waters. With the
increasing pressure gradient behind the front, N-NE winds are
expected to increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt by mid morning
on Sun, with a period of 25-30 kt winds possible over the coastal
waters (w/ gusts to 35-40 kt) from late Sunday morning through the
first part of Sunday night. Occasional gale force gusts are possible
on the bay (especially near the mouth of the bay) during this time.
Local wind probabilities for Gale Force Gusts (34 kt+) are roughly
50-70% across the waters N of the VA-NC border. As such, have issued
Gale Watches for all ocean zones out to 60nm from Sunday morning-
late Sunday evening for these zones (not including NE NC). Have also
issued a ramp up SCA starting Saturday for the northern two
nearshore coastal zones. Winds diminish a few knots Sun night-Mon as
the low pulls farther offshore, but solid SCA conditions with N-NE
winds appear likely through Monday for all waters. Sub-SCA winds
finally return on Tuesday.

Seas build to 3-4 ft S/5-6 ft N on Saturday, before building to 8-14
ft (highest 60nm offshore) by late Sunday. Waves on the bay
gradually build to 3-6 ft (highest at the mouth) by late Sunday.
Seas slowly diminish early next week, but 5 ft seas could persist
nearshore through Tue/Tue night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ650-652.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     ANZ650-652-680-682.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     ANZ654-656.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     ANZ684-686.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR/SW
AVIATION...AJB/RHR
MARINE...ERI/MAM