Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

337
FXUS61 KAKQ 171856
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
256 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion. Pushed best rain chances a bit later
tomorrow late day into tomorrow night. A Climate Section was
added for reference to show tomorrow`s record high temperatures.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heating up tomorrow, with highs back in the mid to upper 90s
inland and heat index values around 100.

2) Strong to Severe storms are possible Thursday night, though
confidence in convective initiation remains low. Lingering
showers are possible Friday morning. Gradual clearing late
Friday and Friday night looks to give way to a mainly dry,
pleasant weekend.

3) In light of the breezy and hot conditions, a late-season
Increased Fire Danger Statement has been added for most of our
NC counties for tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heating up tomorrow, with highs back in the mid
to upper 90s inland and heat index values around 100.

As low pressure crosses the upper Great Lakes through Thursday,
warm W-SW winds will pump a hot airmass back into the region
tomorrow. Thickness tools match multi-model consensus regarding
temperatures. Furthermore, 18-20C 850mb temps, combined with
ongoing drought conditions and dry downslope flow, should yield
highs in the mid-to-upper 90s away from the immediate coast.
This dry flow aloft will help mix out afternoon dewpoints,
keeping heat index values partially in check but still peaking
in the 100 to 105F range. Given the potential for increasing
afternoon clouds, as well as the marginal, short-lived nature of
this heat, will not issue any heat headlines for now and will
allow for later shifts to re-evaluate.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday
night, though confidence in convective initiation remains low.
Lingering showers are possible Friday morning. Gradual clearing
late Friday and Friday night looks to give way to a mainly dry,
pleasant weekend.

Model trends continue to lean slower with the frontal passage
Thursday night into Friday, with the attendant surface low
lifting into Ontario/Quebec and slowly dropping the cold front
across the area late Thu night into Friday. The slower timing
and persistent pre-frontal downslope flow continues to cast some
doubt regarding the timing and overall coverage of showers and
storms late tomorrow afternoon into the early evening. While
SPC has maintained a Day 2 Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for
counties north of the VA/NC line, the severe threat remains
highly conditional on when forcing can overcome the dry
boundary layer.

The well-mixed, hot, and dry airmass will allow for plenty of
surface-based instability, with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg likely
to develop by early to mid-afternoon. However, a weak capping
inversion is also forecast to develop tomorrow afternoon. While
this cap is relatively weak, it will take time to break, narrowing
the already small convective window a bit more. While the
potential for strong to severe storms exists, the window will be
relatively narrow (~ 6 to 11 PM/22-03z), since local storms
will be conditional upon convective development. Specifically,
we will need upstream convective outflows and cold pool
propagation to do much of the heavy lifting. The considerable
difference in simulated convective footprint amongst CAM
guidance reflects this uncertainty well. Storms firing earlier
in the afternoon to our N/NW where forcing is stronger, as
modeled by the NSSL WRF and a majority of the RRFS runs, would
efficiently utilize the high-DCAPE environment to organize
convection. On the other hand, the past few HRRR runs remain far
less bullish on convective chances, keeping most of the area
dry through sunset Thursday. Given the noted challenges, a drier
solution is well within the range of outcomes.

In terms of kinematics and storm mode, a reasonably steep
N-S gradient in deep-layer bulk shear remains forecast across
the region tomorrow afternoon and evening. Across our far
northern tier N of a RIC-SBY line, 30-40 kt of shear is forecast
and would be able to support more organized multicell convection
and perhaps some bowing segments. Farther south into central
portions of the area, 25-30 kt of shear would portend a more
messy, or loosely-organized multicell mode. Meanwhile, across
the southern third of the area where bulk shear drops to 20 kt
or less, single-cell to pulse-type, disorganized convection
remains the primary expected storm mode. Unidirectional
soundings and stark inverted-V look to soundings indicate a
high-DCAPE environment exceeding 1000 J/kg. This environment,
combined with the enhanced kinematics across the north, suggests
that any storms managing to develop across the north or into
our northern tier will be capable of better organization. The
primary hazard remains damaging straight-line winds from intense
downbursts or accelerated gust fronts. The highest
probabilities for this conditional severe threat remain focused
from the VA Piedmont north of US-360 into the RIC metro and
Northern Neck/Lower Eastern Shore for late Thursday evening.

The front likely becomes hung up across the southern portions
of the area late Thursday night. Another northern stream
shortwave, attendant to a potent upper low over central Canada,
will ultimately push the slow-moving cold front through the
region Friday morning. Regarding QPF potential, the ECMWF, and
to a lesser extent the CMC, have been most aggressive in pushing
more of tropical moisture up into our area, while the GFS and
its member ensembles are far less aggressive in bringing this
additional QPF our way. Unfortunately, given the flat, quasi-
zonal flow, this setup is still unlikely to yield the
widespread, drought-busting rains the region needs. While some
welcome measurable rainfall looks likely during this period, as
gulf moisture overspreads the crossing front, this synoptic
setup typically limits the window for appreciable totals, as
rapid clearing takes place Friday afternoon and night as the
front sweeps south. Trends continue to favor a dry weekend
with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity. Rain chances
then ramp up early next week ahead of our next frontal passage
later Monday into Monday night.


KEY MESSAGE 3...In light of the breezy and hot conditions, a
late-season Increased Fire Danger Statement has been added for
most of our NC counties for tomorrow.

A tightening pressure gradient and downslope W-SW flow will
result in dry, breezy conditions on Thursday. After
collaboration with neighboring offices and NCFS fire officials,
concern for 20-30 mph gusts and hot temperatures, despite
marginal RH values (~35-40%), justifies the IFD statement. This
is especially true given the ongoing drought conditions and very
dry fine fuels across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 18z/17 TAF
period look to prevail through early Thursday afternoon. Mainly
clear/SKC, with only some scattered mid to high clouds north of
KRIC to KSBY. S-SW back to the S-SE ~7-10kt this evening, then
become SSW late tonight and Thursday. Gusts to 20-25 kt are
likely across terminals tomorrow, with occasional gusts to ~30
kt through tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Showers/storms possible as early as late Thu afternoon,
but are more likely Thu evening into early Fri. Lingering
showers and embedded storms then continue into Fri afternoon,
with best chances at PHF/ORF/ECG. Drier conditions/VFR
conditions return late Fri through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- A period of elevated SW winds is likely tonight into Thursday
  night with Small Craft Advisories going into effect by late
  tonight/early Thursday.

- The Gale Watch for the 20-60nm zone south of the VA/NC border has
  been upgraded to a Gale Warning for Thursday afternoon/evening.

A rather diffuse pressure pattern is in place this afternoon across
the region. Winds are mainly SE 5-10 kt with sea breeze
influence/enhancement noted across the southern Ches Bay/VA
Beach. Waves and seas are 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively.

SE winds will likely peak around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the
early evening before becoming S 10-15 kt tonight. Low pressure over
the Midwest today will deepen and translate into the Great Lakes by
sunrise Thursday. The gradient between this low and high pressure
anchored off the Southeast coast will steepen tonight and especially
Thursday. Forecast soundings also show very deep mixing across
the region tomorrow from late morning into the afternoon.
Sustained winds will average 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. The
highest gusts will likely occur near shore, including the lower
James River and southern Ches Bay. In coordination with the
Morehead City office, have upgraded the Gale Watch for the far
offshore waters south of the VA/NC border. Local wind
probabilities continue to show a ~60% chance for 35 kt gusts.
Still thinking the highest gusts will be confined to the SE
third of the zone. Waves in the bay increase to 2-3 ft on
Thursday with seas 4-6 ft nearshore and 5-8 ft well offshore.
Will need to watch the potential for strong to severe storms,
mainly Thursday evening into the overnight hours. Locally gusty
winds along with increased waves/seas can be expected in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms. The surface front finally drops
southward during the day on Friday with winds becoming N and NW
5-10 kt behind the boundary. Much improved marine conditions are
expected this weekend as high pressure moves into the area. The
next system approaches the region early next week with
increasing SW winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Record Highs for tomorrow 6/18

                 Record
                High/Year
Location          6/18
--------          ----
Richmond       100 (1970)
Norfolk         99 (1944)
Salisbury       98 (2014)
Eliz. City     100 (2011)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ639.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ688.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM
AVIATION...AC/MAM
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...