Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

674
FXUS61 KAKQ 061716
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
116 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Afternoon full discussion/aviation update. No significant
changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered
afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely
scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to
continue through the weekend.

Early afternoon wx analysis shows high pressure at the surface and
aloft anchored off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast, with upper
troughing in the Plains and Midwest. It is a bit hotter than it has
been, with heat indices around 100F near the coast and 90s inland.
Despite the building heights, a few showers have developed across
E/SE NC (south of the FA). Some of this convection could make it
into NE NC and perhaps extreme SE VA later this aftn/this evening,
but most areas should remain dry. The convection near the coast
should dissipate by 7-8 PM at the latest. Another area of
showers/tstms currently to our NW (over the mountains) will slowly
move east but will likely weaken before getting to the area. Still,
can`t rule out an isolated storm or two across the Piedmont this
evening. There is an outside chc of a stronger storm or two across
far W/NW portions of the FA, but confidence in this is very low.

Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend (except that
temps may be a couple degrees warmer). A few locations near the
VA/NC coast could see brief 105F heat indices each day, but not
expecting this to be enough to warrant an advisory. Still expect to
see some slight height falls over the local area as the upper ridge
offshore retreats a bit to the SE and a series of weak shortwaves
pass by to our N/NW. This will lead to slightly greater chances for
diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and Saturday across
western and northern portions of the area but PoPs generally remain
aob 50%. A few storms are possible on Sunday, with the highest
precip chances (still only ~30%) shifting to SE VA/NE NC. It may be
even hotter (with continued humid wx and minimal precip chances) on
Mon/Tue ahead of an approaching front. There is a low chc of Heat
Advisory conditions across SE portions of the FA early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. SCT cumulus
will persist through 22-00z, though precip chances at the
terminals are very low except for ECG, where PoPs are ~30%. A
PROB30 group has been added here for SHRA, though a tstm can`t
be ruled out this aftn/early evening. There is an outside chc of
a shower or tstm at ORF this afternoon/early evening, but
confidence (and PoPs) are very low. Additional convection is
expected to impinge on our far NW counties this evening and
possibly SBY tonight but confidence in this scenario panning out
is very low. MVFR to IFR stratus likely remains to the SW of
the terminals overnight/Fri AM as per the latest guidance.

Outlook: The more typical Summer pattern continues through the
the weekend. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected
each day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the
  weekend and into early next week.

High pressure is centered offshore this aftn. The wind is primarily
SSW 10-15kt with 2-3ft seas, and 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High
pressure is expected to prevail off the Southeast coast through the
end of the week, into next weekend and early next week. The wind is
expected to gradually shift to S/SSE later this aftn and evening due
to seabreeze influences and increase to ~15kt in the Ches. Bay and
15-20kt in the coastal waters, before shifting to SW and relaxing to
10-15kt overnight into Friday morning. A similar pattern is expected
Friday and Saturday with a wind shift to S/SSE during the late
aftn/evening hours and an increase in speed to ~15kt in the Ches.
Bay and 15-20kt in the coastal waters. The pressure gradient relaxes
Sunday into early next week with a S/SW wind diminishing to ~10kt or
less, which will allow for more of a true sea-breeze with the wind
shifting to SE near the coast during the aftn/early evening hours.
Seas through the forecast period will primarily be 2-3ft for the
coastal waters, ~3ft for the offshore waters, and 1ft to occasionally
2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...ERI/RHR
MARINE...AJZ