Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

962
FXUS61 KAKQ 100813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
313 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Full discussion updated. No significant changes to the
forecast.

Aviation section for 06z TAFs also updated

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frost Advisory in effect through mid-morning today for
south-central VA and interior portions of southeast VA and
northeast NC. Dry and seasonably mild otherwise through mid-
week.

2) A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday-Friday,
but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler
temperatures follow behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost Advisory in effect through mid-morning today
for south-central VA and interior portions of southeast VA and
northeast NC. Dry and seasonably mild otherwise through mid-week.

Chilly early this morning with temperatures in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. Calm winds and mostly clear skies are allowing for decent
radiational cooling conditions, though the position of the nearby
high pressure system isn`t 100% ideal for a very cold night.
Regardless, am expecting temps to drop a few more degrees through
sunrise. Frost is possible away from the coast, though will tend to
focused in rural and sheltered locations. A Frost Advisory is in
effect for interior southern VA and NE NC where the growing season
is still ongoing.

After the chilly morning, temps should warm quickly, leading to a
very nice day with clear skies, a SW wind, and highs in upper 60s to
lower 70s. Not as cold tonight with lows in the 40s for most.
Another seasonably mild day is on the way for Wednesday with
sky cover and temperatures very similar to today. Could see some
increase in clouds late in the day as low pressure begins to
take shape well NW of the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday-
Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much
cooler temperatures follow behind the front.

A big change remains on the horizon as we approach late week. A
shortwave trough is forecast to dive southward out of the north-
central CONUS Wednesday, with a larger longwave trough and embedded
upper low setting up shop over most of the eastern CONUS by Thursday
and Friday. While some precip is possible Thursday and Friday, the
main focus will be the much cooler temperatures that overspread the
area behind the associated frontal passage. Thursday looks to be the
last "mild" day for a while with pre-frontal high temps in the mid
60s NW to lower 70s SE. A series of cold fronts then crosses
the local area Thursday evening and overnight, bringing those
much cooler temps by Friday. At this time, forecast highs Friday
are only in the 50s, with lower 50s for the northern and
northwest tier of our CWA (mainly N and NW of a Farmville-
Richmond- Salisbury line). The large upper trough remains parked
over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday and this still looks
like the coolest day of the period: highs only in the lower 50s
for the entire area and even some potential for upper 40s across
the N and especially the lower MD Eastern Shore. Some
semblance of troughing remains in place Sunday, so those cool
temps are expected to persist. Overnight lows also dip to around
freezing for most locations away from the coast, with even some
upper 20s possible in the Piedmont. Gusty winds could make
these temps feel even chillier. A very gradual moderating trend
is possible starting early next week.

Regarding the precip potential Thursday-Friday, the synoptic pattern
is not very favorable for appreciable rainfall. The sfc low
passes W to E through the northern Mid-Atlantic Thursday, with
the main trough axis lagging well behind these sfc features. The
overall moisture also appears limited with the westerly flow
aloft. Still, at least some light rain or showers are expected
later Thursday into Friday, particularly N of the I-64 corridor
and especially on the lower MD Eastern Shore. Expected/forecast
QPF is only on the order of a tenth or two per the latest NBM
and ensemble guidance, and even these amounts could be on the
generous side. Probs for a half inch of QPF have cratered to
<5-10%, so any sort of beneficial rain is unlikely at this
point. Conditions dry out for the weekend, though those
aforementioned gusty (NW) winds are likely to persist in the
Friday-Sunday timeframe as the pressure gradient remains
compressed over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1220 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions are noted across area terminals early this
morning and will prevail through the 06z/10 TAF period. Cannot
rule out patchy ground fog over interior VA and NE NC, but this
would likely remain W and S of the terminals. Otherwise, mainly
clear with light/variable winds through much of this morning,
becoming SW ~10 kt in the late morning and afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
middle of the week. Another cold front approaches from the west,
with rain showers possible by later Thursday and Friday. Some
short-lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal
passage, along with some strong NW winds and markedly cooler
conditions forecast behind the front for Friday and the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday.

- An extended period of strong NW winds and elevated seas are
  likely Friday into the weekend. However, confidence with
  respect to the strength of the wind and exact timing remains
  low.

High pressure is centered over southern VA and Carolina coastal
plain early this morning. The wind is less than 10kt, out of the NW
across the northern tier of the local marine area, and out of the NE
across the southern tier of the area. Seas range from 2-3ft in the
coastal waters, to 3-4ft in the offshore waters, with 1-2ft waves in
the Ches. Bay. High pressure prevails across the region through
Wednesday, before moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub-
SCA conditions are expected during this timeframe. There is a weak
dry cold front that crosses the coast tonight. The wind becomes WSW
today and increases to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean ahead
of this boundary this aftn and early evening, before becoming N
~10kt, then NE 5-10kt behind the front later tonight into early
Wednesday morning. High pressure becomes centered in vicinity of the
northern Delmarva Wednesday with the wind becoming light and
variable across the northern tier of the marine area, and ENE 5-10kt
across the southern tier of the area. The wind then becomes SE 5-
10kt Wednesday night and then S followed by SW Thursday and
increasing to 10-15kt as the high moves farther offshore and as a
cold front approaches from the NW. Seas remain to 2-3ft nearshore
and 3-4ft offshore today, and then 2-3ft for most of the local
Atlantic zones through midweek. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 1 to
occasionally 2ft Tuesday through midweek.

Low pressure and a strong cold front push across the coast and
offshore Thursday night into Friday, with an extended period of CAA
into the weekend. This should allow for decent mixing as a colder
airmass overspreads relatively warmer SSTs. 00z/10 EPS probs for
wind gusts at or above 34kt increase to generally 30-60% later
Friday into early Saturday, and then to >60% Saturday aftn/evening.
Meanwhile, the 00z/10 GEFS probs are negligible. Local wind probs
for wind gusts at or in excess of 34kt are on average ~20% for the
Ches. Bay Friday night through Saturday evening, 20-50% for the
coastal waters, and 40-60% for the offshore waters. Taking a more
traditional analysis, the 00z/10 ECMWF/GFS/CMC have 925mb wind
speeds reaching a max of ~30kt a few hours either side of 00z Sunday
(7PM Saturday). This also occurs as 925mb temperatures dive to ~0C
along with pressure rises of +4-6mb/6hr, which could help boost the
wind a few knots higher into gale criteria. Combining this with the
probabilistic guidance, the scenario (at least as of this cycle)
favors an extended period of SCA conditions Friday into the weekend,
with a period of gale force gusts possible later Saturday/Saturday
evening as the coldest air aloft arrives. However, it is still far
enough in advance that confidence in exact details remains low. Seas
potentially build to 5-7ft in the coastal waters and 7-9ft beyond
20nm, with 3-5ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>014-030.
VA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ079>081-
     087>089-092-528-529.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ