Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

069
FXUS61 KAKQ 241001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
601 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Shower chances increased a bit W of the bay today.
- Rainfall has trended later Saturday, likely persisting into
  Saturday night and Sunday morning.
- Rainfall amounts have also trended higher (to 0.5-1", with
  locally higher amounts) Saturday-Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widely scattered showers (and potentially a storm)
develop this afternoon, especially east of I-95 and north of
I-64. Otherwise, another very warm day is expected, especially
west of the Chesapeake Bay.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday
night as a cold front and wave of low pressure move into the
region. Showers linger along the coast Sunday, along with cooler
conditions for the entire area. Dry weather makes a comeback
Monday.

3) There are several opportunities for rainfall next week as an
unsettled pattern potentially develops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widely scattered showers (and potentially a storm)
develop this afternoon, especially east of I-95 and north of
I-64. Otherwise, another very warm day is expected, especially
west of the Chesapeake Bay.

Early morning analysis places a backdoor cold front just NE of the
forecast area. Locally, temperatures are quite mild for April`s
standards, under a mostly clear sky and light south wind. The
backdoor cold front will slowly drop S/SW today, first pushing
through the Eastern Shore later this morning and then further inland
by the afternoon. Ahead of the boundary, temperatures are likely to
increase well into the 80s, before dropping later in the afternoon.
Temperatures warm in the 70s on the Eastern Shore this morning and
likely drop into the 60s by the afternoon.

Short-term convective-allowing models continue to depict widely
scattered showers in the vicinity of the front this afternoon.
This is where some moisture pooling and slightly higher dew
points should reside. The highest coverage is currently favored
along and just W of the Chesapeake Bay and especially in the
sector bounded E of I-95, N of I-64, and W of the Chesapeake
Bay. Here, PoPs are 30-40%. While instability is generally weak,
forecast soundings do show a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE
(generally between 700-500 mb, just above the deep boundary
layer) where those higher dew points likely reside. Thus, a
rumble or two of thunder, small hail, and gusty winds could also
occur. Severe wx, however, is not expected. Well inland, a very
deeply-mixed boundary layer will develop with high- based
cumulus around 8000-10000 ft. Therefore, think the showers shown
in the CAMs in these areas (mainly from I-95 and points W) are
likely overdone given the degree of dry air at the surface.
Rainfall amounts will be very low for those lucky enough to see
a shower or two, generally on the order of a trace to a few
hundredths.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday
night as a cold front and wave of low pressure move into the
region. Showers linger along the coast Sunday, along with cooler
conditions for the entire area. Dry weather makes a comeback
Monday.

Dry conditions are likely for most of the area through at least
Saturday morning. Rain chances increase substantially later in the
the day as low pressure tracks along an approaching cold front. A
few storms are also possible in the vicinity of the low and front,
but instability is quite meager. There have been a few notable
trends with the 00z model guidance this morning. First, the system
has trended slower, with most of the precip now favored in the
second half of the day and especially Saturday evening and Saturday
night. Second, most guidance now depicts a slightly deeper low
closer to the coast Sunday. This could cause wet and cool conditions
for most of the area Sunday with brisk N/NE flow off the water,
especially near the coast. Lastly, and perhaps most significantly,
an upward adjustment in QPF is now reflected in most deterministic
and ensemble guidance, including the NBM. Probabilities for 0.25" and
0.5" have increased two fold compared to this time yesterday. Any
convective enhancement would also favor higher totals and this
aligns well with the now ~10-30% probs for 1". Aerial QPF from
our forecast now depicts 0.5-1" for the entire area. Still, this
is far from a drought-buster given the substantial rainfall
deficits across our area. Quite a large range in temps Saturday,
with highs varying between the upper 80s in the far south and
as low as the mid 60s on the MD Eastern Shore.

As mentioned above, the delayed passage of this system will likely
allow showers, overcast skies, and breezy conditions to linger (at
least) near the coast Sunday. High temperatures range from the mid
50s to lower 60s. If clouds and onshore flow persist for most of the
day, there is some potential for temperatures to be lower than
currently forecast. The low pressure system in question pulls
further away from the coast Monday, with high pressure also nudging
down in the Mid-Atlantic. This favors dry wx and moderating temps.


KEY MESSAGE 3...There are several opportunities for rainfall next
week as an unsettled pattern potentially develops.

Troughing may develop over most of the CONUS by the middle the later
half of next week, with several fronts and disturbances passing
through. Therefore, there are several opportunities for beneficial
rainfall next week in the midst of this potentially unsettled
pattern and the latest CPC outlook favors slightly above average
rainfall in the 6-10 day period. Better late than never for
those April showers! Beyond the weekend, the next chance for
measurable rainfall occurs as early as Tuesday along a cold
front. Specifics beyond this time are uncertain but chance PoPs
are in place through most of the week. Temperatures generally
hover around average for mid-late Spring with variable
cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 600 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail for most of the 12z/25 TAF period.
Primarily SKC through most of this morning, outside of widely
scattered mid-high clouds. CU likely increases quickly after
17z or so this afternoon as a deeply-mixed boundary layer
interacts with a backdoor cold front. Model guidance continues
to hint at isolated to scattered showers (and potentially a
rumble or two of thunder). The "highest" coverage currently
looks to be just W of the Chesapeake Bay although most terminals
have at least a low-end chance. Have included PROB30 groups to
address this potential. Otherwise, light and variable winds
increase out of NW in the morning and then shift to the E-NE
later this morning (SBY) and afternoon (elsewhere) as the front
pushes inland. Any SHRA activity tapers off after sunrise, with
mid-level clouds lingering. There is potential for MVFR CIGs
approaching 12z Saturday, especially around SBY.

Outlook: Low pressure tracks along the front Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night, bringing an increased chance of showers
and flight restrictions. High pressure builds to the N Sunday
with an onshore component to the wind persisting along the
coast, which could result in persistent lower CIGs. VFR and dry
conditions return by Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through
  Saturday, though a brief surge of gusty NE winds is expected
  this afternoon into this evening as a front drops south over
  the waters.

- Solid SCA conditions expected Saturday night and Sunday as low
  pressure deepens offshore. Gusts to Gale Force will be
  possible over the coastal waters Sunday into Sunday
  afternoon, with the best chances of these gusts occurring over
  the northern waters north of Parramore Island.

High pressure is centered off the SE coast early this morning.
Latest obs reflect SSW winds ~10 kt. Waves were around 1 ft with
seas 2-3 ft offshore. Given very weak synoptic flow regime in place,
expect local sea/bay breeze circulations to dominate late this
morning into the early afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, a second
area of high pressure centered to our north builds down the
northeast coast and drive a cold front south across the local waters
into early this evening. E winds briefly increase to 10-15 kt late
this afternoon and this evening with gusts to 20 kt, mainly
nearshore across the southern Ches Bay, and adjacent rivers, and the
Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore as the front into the region. A
few spotty showers or even an isolated storm are possible along and
ahead of the frontal boundary, and could result in briefly gusty
winds given the very dry low level airmass.

The trailing cold front crosses the waters Saturday afternoon and
evening, with weak surface low lifting NE along the front into Sat
night. The low pressure actually deepens after the front is farther
offshore later Saturday night into Sunday, with the deepening low
quickly lifting off the MD/DE coast overnight. E winds still look to
strengthen and become NE with time early Sunday morning. SCA
headlines may be needed for northern zones Saturday morning, but are
more likely for the Bay and coastal waters Saturday night into
Sunday behind the front. By Sunday, Local wind probabilities for
Gale Force Gusts to 34kt have trended a bit higher (50-70%) across
the coastal waters, with the best chances north of Parramore Island,
increasing to 60-80+% Sunday afternoon into early Sun evening, and
will therefore need to keep an eye on Gale headline potential as we
get closer, again mainly over the northern and central coastal zones
and 20-60 NM waters.

Waves build Saturday night and Sunday to 3-4 ft, before falling back
to 2-3 ft on Monday. Seas will be highly dependent on the location
and strength of offshore low pressure. Still expect seas to increase
to ~7-9 ft N and 5-8 ft S by early Sunday evening with heights
slowly falling off through the day Monday. High pressure briefly
dominates Monday night into early Tuesday before the next system
approaches from the west.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM