Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

427
FXUS61 KAKQ 132326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
726 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for widespread
nuisance to minor coastal flooding across the Chesapeake Bay and
local tidal rivers for tonight`s high tide.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drier conditions return, with cooler than average
temperatures persisting through midweek.

2) Hot conditions return for the second half of the
week. Remaining dry through Friday, followed by increasing
thunderstorm chances this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier conditions return, with cooler than average
temperatures persisting through midweek.

Latest analysis continues to show ~1024mb high pressure centered to
our north with a weakening cold front to our south. A strong upper
ridge is centered over the northern Plains, with a broad upper
trough over the central Appalachians/Deep South. Locally, E to NE
LLVL flow continues with mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the
upper 70s-lower 80s, and a few showers across southern VA/NE NC.
Isolated to widely scattered showers will persist over far southwest
portions of the area through early evening before gradually
diminishing. Additional rainfall amounts of ~0.50" are possible in a
few spots. Clouds decrease tonight, with early morning lows falling
into the low to mid 60s inland away from the coast, mid to upper 60s
east of I-95, and the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Dry and
pleasant wx (for mid July) is expected on Tuesday as the surface
high settles over the area and the upper trough drifts southwestward
as the northern Plains ridge builds ESE. Highs mainly in the mid-
upper 80s with lower 60s dew pts during the aftn.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions return for the second half of the
week. Remaining dry through Friday, followed by increasing
thunderstorm chances this weekend.

Heights continue to rise through the rest of the week, as the
aforementioned upper ridge builds over the region. Hot weather
returns by Wednesday and continues through the end of the week.
Highs rise into the lower-mid 90s Wednesday (highest north given
that the ridge is building from NW-SE). Even hotter on Thu/Fri with
mid 90s-100F readings expected. Any convection should remain away
from the area through Fri as the next front remains well to our
north and the upper trough near the area retrogrades to the west.
Heat indices look to be in the low 100s on Wednesday, though we will
likely approach Heat Advisory criteria on Thursday and potentially
Friday.

The ridge gradually breaks down over the weekend as upper troughing
establishes itself over the northern Mid-Atlantic/NE CONUS. A series
of shortwaves is progged to track across the area from Saturday
through Monday as the next front approaches from the north (which
may linger over the area from Sunday-Monday). While there is a
considerable amount of uncertainty with regard to timing and
coverage of showers and storms, will continue to show chances for
convection starting Saturday (mainly N of I-64), spreading across
the entire area on Sunday/Monday. Given the thermodynamic
environment and modest increase in WNW-NW flow aloft, a few stronger
storms are possible this weekend with the main threat being
localized damaging wind gusts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Monday...

Weak high pressure was building in from the NE as of 00z. VFR
conditions prevailed with an E wind of 5-10kt. Any lingering
showers were pushing W/SW of a RIC-ECG line. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail tonight into Tuesday. The only exception is
some brief MVFR vsby possible around sunrise in closer proximity
to the surface ridge axis, mainly at RIC, SBY, and PHF.
Otherwise, cloud cover gradually dissipates tonight with a
sunny sky expected Tuesday. The wind will be light out of the E
to NE tonight, and then generally E/NE 5-10kt late morning into
the aftn Tuesday at ORF, PHF, and ECG, E becoming SSE 5-10kt at
RIC, and SW 5-10kt at SBY.

Outlook: Drier conditions prevail mid to late week. The next
chance of showers/tstms arrives later Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 PM Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for most local waters through
  this evening, as elevated winds and seas decrease throughout
  the day. Benign marine conditions are expected Tuesday into
  late week.

- There is a High Risk of Rip Currents across southern beaches and a
  Moderate Risk across northern beaches today and tomorrow.

A nearly stationary front is draped across South Carolina, and a
weak area of low pressure developed just offshore this morning.
Meanwhile, high pressure continues to build across the area from the
New England coastal region. Winds have started to relax across the
middle Bay, but still remain somewhat elevated across the lower Bay,
as expected. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this
afternoon for the lower Bay and lower James River due to these
elevated winds. Meanwhile, seas across the nearshore coastal waters
south of Parramore Island remain between 4-5 ft this afternoon and
will be a little slower than the winds to come down, so SCAs will
linger through later this evening. As high pressure shifts farther
south tonight into tomorrow, winds will continue to relax, but
remain east to east-northeast overnight. By tomorrow, winds will
shift to the south to southeast, becoming south to southwest
overnight. High pressure will remain in place across the area
through most of the week, with generally benign boating conditions
expected.

A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for southern beaches with a
Moderate Risk for northern beaches today due to elevated onshore
flow and seas. Despite winds and seas starting to relax on Tuesday,
have decided to keep high rip risks in place for the southern
beaches due to the continued longer-period swell of ~3-4 ft and
shore normal flow. By Wednesday, seas will have subsided enough and
winds will becoming offshore before becoming parallel to the shore,
so the rip risk will likely start to come down.

.Coastal Flooding...
As of 305 PM Monday...

King tides will continue tonight and tomorrow before starting to
trend back down. For this evening`s high tide cycle, the higher
tidal anomalies should allow for widespread nuisance to low-end
minor coastal flooding across the Chesapeake Bay, local tidal
rivers. Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for areas along the
upper James, York, Rappahannock, and Potomac Rivers and the
Chesapeake Bay side of the Eastern shore for this evening into late
tonight.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...KMC/NB