Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

032
FXUS61 KAKQ 111906
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
306 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of south-central
and southeast Virginia as well as northeast North Carolina
through 8 PM. All Gale warnings have ended, replaced with Small
Craft Advisories. Most of the headlines last through Monday.
All High Surf Advisories have been cancelled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of south-central
and SE VA as well as NE NC through 8 PM.

2) A brief warmup is expected early next week with cooler temperatures
later in the week. Much cooler temperatures arrive next
weekend.

3) Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements continue through
late afternoon/early evening for portions of east-central VA
along the Bay, tidal Rappahannock/Potomac, and across the bayside
of the lower Maryland and VA eastern shore for nuisance to Minor
flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of
south-central and SE VA as well as NE NC through 8 PM.

Afternoon surface analysis depicted the occluded center of the
remnants of Isaias across the southern Appalachians with a
secondary surface low near the VA/NC border between Danville and
Greensboro. This secondary low will continue to track NE this
afternoon, pushing the CAD warm front north. Mesoanalysis
depicted 500 J/kg of MLCAPE along the edge of the warm front
pushing into portions of south-central VA, SE VA, and NE NC.
Mesoanalysis suggests the instability continues to push north
through the afternoon with 500 J/kg of MLCAPE potentially
pushing all the way into the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore by
this evening. Additionally, 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE could push into
SE VA/NE NC later this afternoon. This is colocated with
effective SRH around 200 m2/s2 along and ahead of a broken line
of supercells currently located across north-central NC. As
such, the tornado threat will continue to increase this
afternoon across south-central VA, SE VA, and NE NC with sig tor
values increasing to around 1. As such (and per collaboration
with neighboring offices and SPC) a Tornado Watch has been
issued from Mecklenburg NE through Charles City County and east
through the Hampton Roads region. This also includes all
counties/cities south of that line including NE NC. The Tornado
Watch is in effect until 8 PM this evening. Will note that an
expansion of the watch is possible later this afternoon if the
threat appears to continue beyond the footprint of the current
watch. However, some uncertainties regarding the degree of
destabilization remain given stratiform precip ahead of the
broken line of storms. The severe threat should wane this
evening as the system begins to move out of the area and we
loose diurnal instability. Will also note that a low-end risk
for severe storms exists for the remainder of the FA outside of
the Tornado Watch. The greatest uncertainty is across portions
of central VA as some CAMs show the line of supercells arching
across this region and potentially redeveloping later this
afternoon into this evening along the triple point of the
surface low. However, CAD has held on with temps in the 60s in
Nottoway and Prince Edward Counties north. Therefore, will need
to watch this area as well for any potential redevelopment later
today if destabilization can occur (a conditional threat).

Outside of the tornado threat, these storms will likely produce
very heavy rainfall rates. Therefore, locally heavy rain and
flash flooding is possible, especially if convection can
somewhat stall along the triple point. Convection tapers off
this evening from SW to NE behind the line of storms. However,
the low associated with the remnants of Isaias to the west of
the surface low does look to move through the area overnight.
CAMs show additional showers with this low tonight into early
Mon morning across mainly the northern half of the area.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A brief warmup is expected early next week with
cooler temperatures later in the week. Much cooler temperatures
arrive next weekend.

An upper level ridge centered across the central CONUS
gradually builds into the region through the week. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure remains centered across the Deep South
through midweek before a second area of high pressure builds in
from the north late in the week. This will bring a warmup with
highs in the 70s for most Mon, lower 80s for most Tue (upper
70s across the Eastern Shore), and mid-upper 80s (most in the
upper 80s) Wed. Some locations could approach 90F on Wed across
portions of central/SE VA and NE NC. Slightly cooler
temperatures return from Thu to Fri behind a cold front with
highs in the low- mid 70s north to lower 80s south. However,
these temperatures are still above normal for most (apart from
northern portions of the FA). Actually cooler weather returns
next weekend as a strong cold front moves into the region with a
strong area of high pressure building in behind it. Breezy NW
winds and highs in the mid-upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE are
expected next weekend underneath a strong trough. If this trough
is fully realized, we could be looking at the first frost of the
season across portions of the area. The latest NBM has lows in
the mid-upper 30s across the Piedmont and mid-upper 40s closer
to the coast Sat and Sun nights. Otherwise, dry weather
continues for most of the week apart from the chance for some
scattered showers Thu night into Fri across mainly N/NE
portions of the FA.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements continue through
late afternoon/early evening for portions of east-central VA
along the Bay, tidal Rappahannock/Potomac, and across the bayside
of the lower Maryland and VA eastern shore for nuisance to Minor
flooding.

Ongoing nuisance to minor tidal flooding this afternoon/early
evening for the middle Peninsula/northern Neck, and the lower
Maryland eastern shore Bay zones. High tides have passed closer
to the Ocean and across SE VA so the Statements there have ended.
Winds becoming S-SW by tonight so additional flooding is not
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Sunday...

Primarily IFR conditions continue this afternoon apart from some
MVFR CIGs across SE VA/NE NC in the warm sector. As the CAD warm
front lifts north this afternoon, expect IFR CIGs to lift north
with MVFR CIGs becoming common across S/SE VA and NE NC
including PHF/ORF/ECG. RIC and even SBY may briefly improve to
MVFR CIGs overnight (1-6z Mon at RIC and 5-9z Mon at SBY) before
IFR CIGs pivot back into the area with the remnant low of
Isaias. CIGs are expected to drop back down to IFR at PHF and
ORF as well beginning around 10-12z and continuing until 14-15z.
Will also note that a period of VFR conditions is possible at
PHF/ORF/ECG tonight before the second round of lower CIGs. CIGs
remain generally MVFR through Mon afternoon apart from SBY where
IFR CIGs could continue through 17-18z. Outside of CIGs,
showers will continue to spread across the region this afternoon
with a broken line of storms possible this afternoon into this
evening on the SW side of the showers. As such, MVFR or IFR VIS
due to rain will remain possible. Will note that confidence
regarding lightning is low at this time for the terminals. As
such, have PROB30s for thunderstorms instead of prevailing.

Outlook: Improving conditions are expected late Monday through
late week with mainly VFR and dry conditions favored at this
time.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have replaced all Gale Warnings on the
  Ocean and mouth of the Bay, and have dropped Small Craft
  Advisories through early evening for the remainder of the Bay
  and rivers.

- Additional Small Craft Advisories return later tonight,
  lasting through Monday for all but the upper rivers as SW
  winds increase, followed by elevated NW winds persisting
  through Monday aftn.


Surface analysis indicates Isaias` remnant low situated across
south-central VA and north-central NC, with a sfc warm front
extending NE into the eastern shore. Winds are mainly S-SE at
~15 kt south of the front and E-SE at 15-25 kt to the north.

All Gale Warnings have been discontinued on the Ocean/mouth of
the Bay, replaced with SCAs that prevail through Monday.
Elsewhere, allowed SCAs to drop off until this evening, but then
have SCAs returning for all but the upper rivers late this
evening/overnight when the sfc low lifts NE, allowing for SW
winds to increase back to 15-20 kt. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft,
except higher to ~5 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Seas are 5-8
ft, but up to 10-11 ft well offshore.

A cold front is forecast to cross the waters in the wake of the
departing system Monday morning, with NW winds 15-25 kt as
cooler and drier air filters into the region. Mainly sub-SCA
conditions Mon night through mid to late week. Another front
likely crosses the waters late Wed into Thurs with increasing N
and NE winds. Long range models are starting to key in on a much
stronger frontal passage next weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ075>077-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ078-085-086.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ633-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...LKB/RHR