Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

886
FXUS61 KAKQ 022338
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
738 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 00z/03 TAFs.

Heat Advisory was expanded to include to include all counties
Thursday (excluding the MD and NC beaches).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions with heat indices around 105F expected
through the rest of the week. Heat Advisories remain in effect for
inland areas today and have been expanded to included the remainder
of the forecast area (excluding the MD and NC beaches) for tomorrow.

2) There are daily chances for thunderstorms through Saturday. Some
storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds gusts and large
hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions with heat indices around
105F expected through the rest of the week. Heat Advisories remain
in effect for inland areas today and have been expanded to included
the remainder of the forecast area (excluding the MD and NC beaches)
for tomorrow.

High pressure remains stretched across most of the area this
afternoon, leading to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. The only
area not encased in the sweltering heat is the coastal areas and the
Eastern Shore. The coast is receiving some relief due to the onshore
flow, while the Eastern Shore is seeing a combination of the onshore
flow and a backdoor front that has buckled across that area. The MD
Eastern Shore counties have had low cloud cover that has kept them
in the lower 80s for most of the afternoon. The inland portion of
the forecast area is currently observing temperatures in the 90s to
near 100F at some sites, with heat indices in the lower to mid
100s. Unfortunately, this early September heat wave will
continue through the end of the week as the aforementioned
backdoor front will lift back to the north and winds will shift
to the S-SW tomorrow. The ridge aloft will also remain intact
across the Eastern U.S., and Thursday looks to be the hottest
day of the week. Temperatures across our entire forecast area
look reach the upper 90s to near 100F (lower to mid 90s across
the Eastern Shore). With dew points in the lower to mid 70s
forecast for tomorrow, most areas will see heat indices reaching
Heat Advisory criteria of 105-108F, so have expanded the
current Advisory to include all but the MD and NC beaches
tomorrow. Looking ahead to Friday, the southern half of the area
will likely need Heat Advisories, but how far north they will
be needed will be dependent on the timing of a stronger frontal
boundary that will be approaching the region on Friday. As this
stronger front moves through the area late Friday through
Saturday, we will finally see a much needed break in the heat.
By Sunday, temperatures will be in the lower 80s, with
refreshing 60s dew points.


KEY MESSAGE 2...There are daily chances for thunderstorms through
Saturday. Some storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds
gusts and large hail.

A line of thunderstorms is currently moving through the MD Eastern
Shore counties this afternoon. This convection was spawned by an MCS
near the eastern Great Lakes early this morning and has been riding
along a boundary all the way to our area. With good shear to our
north and abundant daytime heating, this line has remained strong as
it moved SE-S, bringing strong winds. Hi-res guidance had a
difficult time with this line earlier today, and a similar pattern
is expected tomorrow, so we will likely be heading into tomorrow`s
possible severe weather with lower confidence in location and
coverage. As of right now, some hi-res guidance is suggesting more
widespread coverage, which is in-line with SPC`s thinking since they
have a majority of our area in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe
weather tomorrow. Granted, this severe threat is highly contingent
on if convection does develop. There will be ample DCAPE and flow
aloft will remain NW, so there are multiple factors in favor of
stronger convection, but even with all these good parameters,
confidence still remains on the lower side. The most favorable
overlap of forcing, shear, and instability is expected Friday. At
the surface, the aforementioned front to our north will finally make
appreciable progress and descend into our local area. Aloft, NW flow
will remain in place and progressively strengthen as the associated
trough drops southward along the NE/Mid-Atlantic coast, increasing
the deep-layer shear. This all suggests a bonafide severe wx threat
for the majority of the area Friday, with the potential for several
fast-moving clusters capable of widespread damaging winds, along
with isolated supercells and large hail. The risk for storms (and
any potential severe weather) Saturday is dependent on where the
front is situated during peak heating. After the front moves
through, the risk for severe weather becomes negligible as a much
drier airmass filters in across the region through at least early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday...

Generally VFR conditions are expected for the 00z/03
TAF period. A back door cold front has pushed through most of the
area this evening, which has resulted in isolated showers and
storms. The rest of the night should be dry, although there is a
very low chance (15-20%) SBY sees a shower between 06-12z/03. MVFR
CIGs have pushed into SBY and will likely remain through the night,
dropping to IFR CIGs around 06z. Some models show the MVFR CIGs
pushing further south into PHF and ORF, but confidence is lower in
this. MVFR VSBYs are likely at RIC between 08-13z, given the evening
precip, light winds, and higher dewpoints. Flight restrictions
should lift by ~14z/03 across all terminals. Winds will continue to
shift out of the S-SW this evening through early tomorrow.

Outlook: A stronger cold front is set to pass through the area
Friday night into Saturday. The front will likely trigger scattered
thunderstorms Thursday and Friday as it slowly sags southward. This
may cause flight restrictions and strong wind gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- South to southwest winds increase on Thursday and Friday ahead of
a cold front. Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria, but there could be wind gusts of 15kt at times.

- A cold front passes through the area Friday Night. This will allow
winds to turn northerly then northeasterly as high pressure builds
into the area from the north. Wind gusts may approach 20 kt late Fri
night into Saturday. Weaker northeast winds on Sunday and Monday.

A weak backdoor front over the region has allowed winds to be
northeasterly for much of the day over the VA and MD waters. Expect
this front to move back north tonight allowing for southeast then
south winds by Thursday morning. The tightening pressure gradient
between the offshore high and the cold front to the west of the area
will allow for winds to gust to 15 kt Thu afternoon/eve and
again Friday.

The cold front is expected to pass through the area Friday night.
This will allow winds to turn north Fri night then eventually
northeast on Saturday as high pressure builds down from the north.
Not a strong high pressure push behind the front. Still, simply due
to the pressure rises and the north wind, expect winds to gust to 15
to as high as 20 kt late Friday Night into Saturday. Have ultimately
increased NBM guidance a few knots Fri night into Saturday.

High pressure gradually builds over the area for Sunday and
especially Monday leading to decreasing NE winds.

Seas generally 1 ft in the bay through Friday building to 2 ft
Saturday. Seas over the ocean generally 2 to 3 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs through Friday, 9/4:

Richmond:           Record High:

Wed (9/2)           101/2014
Thu (9/3)           99/1984
Fri (9/4)           98/2023

Norfolk:            Record High:

Wed (9/2)           99/2014
Thu (9/3)           97/1977
Fri (9/4)           96/1985

Salisbury:          Record High:

Wed (9/2)           97/2014
Thu (9/3)           99/1930
Fri (9/4)           95/1944

Elizabeth City:     Record High:

Wed (9/2)           96/1943
Thu (9/3)           97/2020
Fri (9/4)           98/1944

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ075>078-
     084>086-098>100-521>525-530-531.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-079>083-087>090-092-097-509>520-528-529.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...MRD
CLIMATE...AJB