Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

670
FXUS61 KAKQ 121949
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
249 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Benign weather is expected tonight into Saturday. A strong cold
front crosses the the Mid-Atlantic late Saturday night into
Sunday, with some accumulating snow possible Sunday. Arctic air
moves in behind the cold front Sunday night, and provides a cold
start to next week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give
way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Mostly clear and chilly tonight with lows in the mid 20s to
  around 30F.

- Partly to mostly sunny and milder Saturday with highs in the
  upper 40s to mid 50s.

Weak high pressure is centered from the upper Ohio Valley to
the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Meanwhile, a sheared
apart shortwave trough and subtle surface low are sliding across
the Carolinas through the base of a broad upper trough. Mid and
high clouds are thinning across the region this afternoon and
any radar returns (that produced little to no precip/light snow
due to a dry sub-cloud layer) are largely pushing S of the local
area. Temperatures this afternoon are generally in the mid 30s
to around 40F.

Weak high pressure builds into the area tonight. Mostly clear
with some increasing cirrus clouds across the N late. Forecast
lows are in the mid 20s to around 30F. Quasi-zonal flow aloft
will allow surface high pressure to slide offshore Saturday.
Partly sunny N to mostly sunny S with an overall increase in
cirrus clouds through the afternoon. Milder, but still slightly
below to near average, with high temperatures ranging from the
upper 40s N to mid 50s S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- An Arctic cold front crosses into the region Sunday, ushering
  in a much colder airmass Sunday night and Monday. Some snow
  is possible with the Arctic frontal passage, especially from
  the Neck to the Eastern Shore.

A vigorous upper trough digs across the central Appalachians
Saturday night and then SE along the southern Mid- Atlantic
coast Sunday along with an associated strong arctic cold front.
A band of snow (may begin as rain) is expected to spread across
the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Farther SE, as of now, the situation looks to be
cold air chasing moisture, which points toward a scenario of
rain ending as a brief period of snow for Hampton Roads and NE
NC. 12/12z ensemble probs are decently aligned with the GEFS
bringing its >1" probs a touch further south than the EPS, but
the main difference is that the GEFS has some low 1" probs for
SE VA/NE NC, but this is an outlier compared to EPS/EC AI
ens./CMC ens. The ECMWF shows 50-80% across the far north, while
the GEFS is similar for the Northern Neck to the MD Eastern
Shore with less back into the NW Piedmont. 3" probs are
negligible for the local area. Forecast snow accumulation is in
line with these with 1-1.5" in Dorchester MD, 0.5-1" for the
Northern Neck and the rest of the MD Eastern Shore, and <0.5"
nearly down to the US-460 corridor.

The main accumulation period based on current timing would be
between 09-15z Sunday across the NE, and 12-18z Sunday farther
S/SE. The front then exits offshore Sunday afternoon, possibly
putting down a dusting of snow at the coast as precipitation
quickly ends as a dry arctic airmass arrives from the NW
(dewpoints falling into the single digits). Highs will range
from the mid 30s across the N to the mid 40s in the SE.
Temperatures drop quickly behind the front Sunday
afternoon/evening. Northwest winds become rather gusty behind
the front as well, leading to wind chills as low as the teens by
mid evening. NW wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected inland
with 30-40 mph toward the coast.

Breezy conditions are forecast for Sunday night into Monday as
an Arctic airmass and weakening but still 1035+mb high move into
the region behind the cold front. NW wind gusts of 20-30mph
will still be possible toward the coast Sunday night. The wind
will relax farther inland, but still remain NW 5-10 mph through
much of the night into early Monday morning. Temperatures drop
quickly Sunday night as strong CAA ensues. Many locations could
experience temperatures in the teens early in the night,
dropping into the mid- teens (potentially colder) by sunrise.
Even immediately near the coast, forecast lows are only around
20F. Wind chills will be in the single digits for the entire
area. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for most, if
not all, of the area Sunday night into Monday morning. The wind
relaxes later Monday morning into the afternoon as high
pressure builds across the region. Regardless, sunny and chilly
with highs in the mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

- Moderating temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected
  through the middle of next week.

High pressure weakens but remains over the region Monday night,
and will be slow to move offshore Tuesday. Lows Monday night
will likely drop to 20-25F inland (with some upper teens
possible) with mid 20s to around 30F at the immediate coast.
High temperatures moderate Tuesday, but remain below seasonal
averages, and range from the lower 40s N to mid 40s S. A warming
trend commences Wednesday once sfc high pressure is suppressed
to the SE and the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Forecast highs
moderate into the lower/mid 50s Wednesday, and around 60F
Thursday. Lows will still be chilly and in the mid 20s to lower
30s Wednesday morning, and then mid/upper 30s Thursday morning.
A cold front potentially pushes through the area Thursday night
dropping temperatures back to near seasonal averages late week.
Dry through Wednesday, with low rain chances returning later
Thursday/Thursday night, before trending drier late week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail as of 18z under SCT-BKN mid and high
clouds as a weakening low pressure system tracks across the
region. VFR conditions continue through the 12/18z TAF period.
Mid and high clouds thin tonight with primarily clear/sunny
conditions Saturday morning, followed by increasing high clouds
Saturday aftn. The wind will be light and locally variable this
aftn through tonight, and become SSW 5-10kt late morning into
aftn Saturday.

A strong cold front crosses the region late Saturday night into
early Sunday. This could bring a period of a rain/snow mix
followed by all snow late Saturday night through midday Sunday
along with brief flight restrictions. Turning much colder/drier
with gusty NNW winds (25-35kt) Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions
prevail Sunday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected through the first half
  of the weekend.

- Gales are expected as a strong cold front moves across the
  local waters Sunday into Monday morning.

Afternoon weather analysis a weak high pressure over the area.
With the high pressure in control benign marine conditions have
been noted across all waters with light northerly wind between 5
to 10 kt. Seas remain low with around 1 ft waves across the bay
and 2 to 3 ft waves across the ocean. Through tonight into
Saturday a warm front is expected to move across the area
shifting winds to the SW. Winds are not expected to increase
much and marine conditions will remain benign. Winds on Saturday
will be around 10 kt with perhaps some 15 kt sustained winds
across the far northern ocean waters closer to where the front
will stall. Seas will remain low with around 1 ft waves
remaining across the bay and 2 to 3ft waves across the ocean.

All eyes then turn to Sunday where Gale force winds are
expected across all waters. A strong cold front is expected to
pass through the area stating as early as Sunday morning. Behind
this front much colder and drier air will advect into the
region. Extremely cold temperatures aloft will mix down to the
surface across (relatively) warmer waters helping create very
windy conditions. With decent model agreement in the cold
temperatures aloft and with local wind probs showing 90%+
chances for wind gusts >= 34 knots a Gale Watch has been issued
for all waters from Sunday morning to Monday morning. Winds are
expected to be out of the NW between 30 to 35 kt sustained and
gusts upwards of 40 to 45 kt. Over the upper rivers the winds
may not be as high, however, winds will still be around 30 kt
with gusts upwards of 35 to perhaps 40 kt. Seas will also
increase, building to as high as 8 to 10 feet over the coastal
waters and 5 to 6 feet in the Chesapeake Bay by Sunday night. By
Monday morning, winds will gradually diminish, however, SCA
will likely be needed for much of Monday due to seas remaining
at 5+ feet and gusts could remain as high as 25 kt. Calmer
conditions are then anticipated Monday night into the middle of
next week as strong high pressure builds over the area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     ANZ635>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/AC
LONG TERM...AJZ/AC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJB/HET