Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

342
FXUS61 KAKQ 112342
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
642 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of clipper systems late this week and again at the end
of the weekend will bring some additional light wintry
precipitation to the region, with some accumulating snow
possible Sunday. Behind the late weekend system, Arctic air
moves in Sunday night, and provides a cold start to next week.
The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively
milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 640 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Dry and cool tonight with increasing high clouds.

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper trough over the East
Coast this evening. At the surface, strong low pressure was
centered over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, with a trailing cold
front well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, high
pressure was centered over the Deep South. Mostly clear and
cool this evening with temperatures ranging from the low-mid
30s across the area. Continued breezy over the Eastern Shore
where a NW wind is gusting up to 25-30 mph across mainly
Dorchester County. Surface high pressure slides across the
Southeast tonight. Mostly clear this evening, with clouds
increasing from W-E overnight. Forecast lows range from the mid
20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A weak clipper system swings across the region Friday,
  bringing some light snow to the Piedmont and I-95 corridor.

- An Arctic cold front crosses into the region Sunday, ushering
  in a much colder airmass Sunday night and Monday. Some snow is
  possible with the Arctic frontal passage, especially from the
  Neck to the Eastern Shore.

A clipper system is dropping SE out of the northern/central
Plains this afternoon, and is expected to drop through Friday.
Deterministic models and CAMs have come into general agreement
with the track of this system, but continue to show minimal
impacts with this weakening system due to light QPF and marginal
surface temperatures. Both EPS/GEFS ensemble probs are in the
20-40% range for probabilities for at least 1" of snow, with a
slight placement differences (the GEFS is slightly N of the
EPS). Bufkit soundings from the 11/12z NAM/GFS depict that snow
will be falling for a few hours Friday morning into early aftn
for the Piedmont and I-95 corridor, before drier air limits
precip to the N and NE. Forecast snowfall amounts range from
0.5-1" over the Piedmont (highest , to a few tenths across the
I-95 corridor. Most snow accumulation will primarily be on the
grass and elevated surfaces. Highest along the US 460/US 360/US
60 corridors in the Piedmont. High temperatures range from the
mid 30s over the Piedmont, to the lower 40s across far SE VA/NE
NC.

Dry weather conditions will return Friday night into Saturday,
with slightly warmer temperatures. Lows Friday night in the 20s
to low 30s. Highs Saturday will be in the mid 40s across the N
and low 50s across the S.

Main weather item of note remains the strong Arctic cold front
that will drop across the area Sunday into Sunday evening. Snow
potentially develops across the northern tier of the area late
Saturday night and continues through midday Sunday. Farther SE,
as of now, looks to be more of a situation where cold air is
chasing moisture, which points toward a situation of rain ending
as a brief period of snow for Hampton Roads and NE NC. EPS/GEFS
probs for >= 1" of snow are 50-80% for the MD Eastern Shore,
and generally 30-50% from the Northern Neck through the VA
Eastern Shore, with the GEFS displaced more to the S. 3" probs
are negligible this model cycle. Forecast snow amounts this
cycle are 1-2" across the northern tier of the area (LKU-XSA-
SBY), 0.5-1.0" from FVX-RIC-WAL, and less than 0.5" farther S.
Lows Saturday night range from the upper 20s/lower 30s N to the
mid/upper 30s S. Temperatures Sunday may rise a few degrees
Sunday morning, then become steady, before falling by late
afternoon as drier/colder air arrives from the NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 PM EST Thursday...

- Cold early next week with moderating temperatures through the
  middle of next week.

Strong high pressure builds in from the NW Sunday night into
Monday, ushering in much colder temperatures. Lows Monday AM are
expected to plummet into middle to upper teens and low 20s
along the coast, with chilly highs Monday in the 30s. Breezy
conditions early Monday will result in wind chills dropping into
the single digits.

There is broad and improving consensus that cold high pressure
quickly slides offshore Tuesday through midweek. Cold Monday
night into Tuesday morning with lows in the lower to mid 20s,
followed by highs in the 40s Tuesday. A noticeable warm-up is
then expected by Wednesday/Thursday. Dry through Wednesday, with
low rain chances returning Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 635 PM EST Thursday...

High pressure continues to build into the area this evening. VFR
conditions continue through tonight with increasing clouds and
calm to light and variable winds. A weak low pressure tracks
across the region Friday. This will result in increased cloud
cover and the chance for a period of light snow across inland
portions of the area from Fri morning into early Fri afternoon.
MVFR to IFR CIGs (as well VIS due to snow showers) are possible
across the Piedmont to RIC from late Fri morning into at least
early Fri evening. However, the latest model guidance keeps IFR
CIGs west of RIC. For the remainder of the terminals, primarily
VFR conditions continue, however, cannot rule out a period of
MVFR CIGs at PHF early Fri afternoon. Given the low confidence
in heavier snowfall rates (and accumulating snow) at RIC, have
kept a PROB30 for IFR VIS for now in the taf.

Clouds linger through Fri night. However, CIGs are expected to
improve to VFR across all terminals. Another (stronger) cold
front crosses the region late Sat night into early Sun. This
could bring a period of a rain/snow mix followed by all snow
late Sat night through midday Sun. Turning much colder with
gusty NNW winds Sun afternoon. VFR conditions return Sun night
through Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Marine conditions continue to improve this afternoon and and
  into tonight.

- Benign marine conditions are expected both Friday and
  Saturday with high pressure in control.

- Confidence increases for Gale force winds as a strong cold
  front moves across the local waters Sunday into Monday.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a sub 980 low across
northeastern Canada and a 1020mb high pressure over the Gulf
coast. The pressure gradient from these two systems have slacked
across the southern half of the area allowing winds to lower to
10 to 15 kt. Therefore, the SCA have been able to expire across
the southern and mouth of the bay and the two southern ocean
zones. While across the the middle and upper bay and the
additional ocean zones remain in a SCA due to the pressure
gradient remaining slightly stronger allowing winds to remain
between 15 to 20 kt with gusts upwards of 25 kt. These SCA are
expected to be dropped at 4pm as the pressure gradient weakens
and winds lower. In addition, the seas have lowered and are
between 3 to 4ft across the ocean and 1 to 2ft across the bay.
Through tonight and into early Sunday high pressure is expected
to move into place bringing benign marine conditions. Winds are
expected to remain light with sustained winds between 5 to 10
kt. Seas are will be between 2 to 3 ft across the ocean and
around 1 ft across the bay.

By early Sunday a strong cold front is expected to move over
the waters. Recent model guidance continues to show a very cold
airmass moving into place. This airmass will cause strong mixing
to occur over the waters and will bring Gale conditions. Local
wind probs continue to show 90%+ of wind gusts >= 34kt gusts.
With great model agreement and high wind probs there is high
confidence in Gale force winds. As of this forecast update winds
are expected to be out of the NW between 25 to 30 kt with some
locally higher sustained winds and gusts upwards of 35 to 40 kt.
At this time, no watches have been issued due to how far out
the event is. However, confidence is high in Gale conditions.
Seas will also increase with these winds and will be between 4
to 5 ft across the bay and 6 to 8 ft across the ocean.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...HET