Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

970
FXUS61 KAKQ 291911
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
311 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion.

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Some patchy fog/low stratus is once again possible late
tonight into Friday, mainly across southeast VA and northeast
NC. Otherwise, a dry, seasonable weather pattern is looking
likely for Halloween weekend and into early next week.

2) Rain chances have trended down for early next week. A better
chance for rain looks to develop for the latter half of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Some patchy fog/low stratus is once again
possible late tonight into Friday, mainly across southeast VA
and northeast NC. Otherwise, dry, seasonable weather pattern is
looking likely for Halloween weekend and into early next week.

Latest weather analysis shows 1028+ mb high pressure offshore
of the northeast coast, ridging back across the lower mid-
Atlantic. Low pressure continues to slide across S QC, with the
associated cold front over the eastern Great Lakes, extending
back into the Central Plains. Locally, early morning stratus and
fog have cleared most of the area, though some lingering strato
cu continues to slowly erode over southside Hampton Roads into
northeast NC. Temperatures have warmed well into the 60s to
lower 70s over much of the region, with even a few mid 70s
across south central VA and northeast NC. Expect low clouds
re-develop late tonight into early Friday, mainly across the
south/southeastern portion of the area around sunrise Friday
morning, quickly eroding by mid-morning.

The cold front to the north drops into the region tomorrow
afternoon. However, its initial push of cold air advection will
be delayed until later tomorrow evening. Given plenty of
sunshine and dry W-NW flow, expect one more warm day with
forecast highs into the upper 70s and low 80s. These temperatures
in tandem with Td values falling into the upper 40s and low 50s
will yield minimum RH values of 35-40% in the afternoon across
interior VA and NE NC. Cool air advection arrives tomorrow
night, and will cool temperatures back to near/just above
climatological normal for the weekend. Halloween looks dry and
pleasant, with highs in the 60s and increasing clouds Saturday
evening for the trick-or-treaters and temperatures mainly in the
50s to near 60.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances have trended down for early next
week. A better chance for rain looks to develop for the latter
half of next week.

The chance for measurable rainfall continues to decrease for
Sunday night into Monday. Model guidance has trended weaker with
an upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest, and
probabilistic guidance has accordingly lowered QPF with this
initial early-week shortwave. While a weak QPF signal lingers
with the 12z GFS across southern Virginia and northern North
Carolina on Monday, precipitation will have to overcome a dry
antecedent airmass reinforced by building surface and mid/upper-
level ridging. Most of the rest of the guidance remains in good
agreement that this period remains dry. A better signal for
measurable rainfall arrives with the next shortwave later in
the week. However, forecast confidence in this potential welcome
rainfall remains understandably low given the timing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions at all area terminals to begin the 18z/29 TAF
period, though some lingering Stratocumulus (4-6 kft AGL) was
lingering across SE terminals (KORF/KECG). Winds have veered
around to the S-SW inland at 5-7 kt, and are still NNE along
the coast, but will eventually veer to the S-SE later today,
remaining 5 kt or less. Light and variable with another
potential round of fog/low stratus late tonight into Friday
morning. Guidance has trended toward far SE terminals for
greatest risk of IFR CIGs/VSBY tonight, mainly at KECG. There
is a lower probability of sub-VFR conditions at both KORF and
KPHF, so have held those terminals at VFR for now.

Outlook: Other than some potential for patchy AM fog,
dry weather and VFR conditions returns each morning through
Sunday. Remaining dry through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

-  N-NW winds increase later Friday behind a cold front, with
   Small Craft Advisories likely for most zones Friday night
   through early Saturday.

High pressure is centered well off the Mid-Atlantic coast this
aftn, but is still ridging well back to the W. The wind is
generally NE and less than 10kt, but is very light and locally
variable across the northern tier of the area. Seas range from
2-3ft N to 3-4ft S where there is some lingering swell. High
pressure slides farther offshore tonight with the wind becoming
SW 5-10kt. The wind becomes NW Friday as a cold front approaches
from the N. However, the wind will remain light, generally
5-10kt given limited mixing as the low- level airmass will be
rather warm. Seas remain 2-3ft N to 3-4ft S tonight, and then
generally 2-3ft Friday.

Strong low pressure tracks ENE from eastern QB to Labrador
Friday with the associated cold front dropping S along the Mid-
Atlantic coast Friday evening. 1032mb high pressure then builds
in from the NW late Friday night into Saturday. The wind becomes
NNE 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt behind the cold front for most
of the marine area, with 10-15kt with gusts ~20kt for the upper
rivers. Local wind probs for sustained 18kt are generally 60-80%
in the Ches. Bay. Probs for 25kt gusts are around 50-70% out
near 20nm N of Cape Charles and 60-80% S of Cape Charles
covering more area in the southern coastal waters. Probs for
sustained 25kt are basically non-existent. SCAs will likely be
needed for the Ches. Bay and lower James Friday night into early
Saturday, and the southern coastal waters Friday night into
midday Saturday where NNE flow ~20kt typically results in 5-6ft
seas. Farther N, it is a little more marginal for the northern
waters, but seas may briefly reach 4-5ft. Winds/seas decrease
thereafter with sub-SCA conditions expected Saturday night
through the early part of next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AJZ/LKB