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Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Tuckahoe VA
National Weather Service Forecast for: Tuckahoe VA
Issued by: National Weather Service Wakefield, VA
Updated: 3:54 pm EDT Jun 21, 2026
 
Tonight

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Mostly Cloudy

Monday

Monday: A chance of showers after 5pm.  Increasing clouds, with a high near 95. South wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Mostly Sunny
then Chance
Showers
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then a chance of showers between 1am and 2am.  Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers
Likely

Tuesday

Tuesday: A chance of showers between 8am and 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am.  Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
Showers then
Chance
T-storms
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Mostly Clear

Wednesday

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 87.
Sunny

Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.
Mostly Clear

Thursday

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.
Mostly Sunny

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Partly Cloudy

Lo 69 °F Hi 95 °F Lo 69 °F Hi 84 °F Lo 63 °F Hi 87 °F Lo 64 °F Hi 90 °F Lo 69 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Tonight
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Monday
 
A chance of showers after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 95. South wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Monday Night
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then a chance of showers between 1am and 2am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers between 8am and 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 87.
Wednesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 64.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Friday
 
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 93.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Tuckahoe VA.

Weather Forecast Discussion
006
FXUS61 KAKQ 211942
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
342 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and remaining dry through tonight.

2) Showers and storms return Monday, with some storms
potentially becoming strong to severe. A more summer-like
pattern takes hold mid to late-week next week.

3) A more summer-like pattern takes hold for mid
to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....Warmer and remaining dry through tonight.

Surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic region gradually
shifts to the south this evening, as an area of low pressure to
our NW approaches the local area. A warm front attached to the
low will lift through the region late tonight, with a resulting
wind shift to the S-SW. Increasing moisture within the
southerly flow is also forecast, with dew points climbing into
the upper 60s to lower 70s by Monday morning. Rain will remain
out of the forecast today and tonight, returning on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and storms return Monday, with some storms
potentially becoming strong to severe.

First, it is worth noting one substantial mesoscale wild card
that could again throw a wrench into Monday`s severe and thermal
evolution. Latest 12z/21 CAMs continue to track a potential
MCS/MCV that could develop this evening and track across N KY
and S OH late tonight. While the multi-model consensus is quick
to wash out this activity with loss of heating, as is often the
case with nocturnal convection, there is some support for some
LLJ enhancement that could allow the MCV to push into S WV/W VA
by early Monday morning. If this feature can push that far east,
its remnant debris cloud shield or at least a stabilized cold
pool could spill into our northern and western counties Monday
morning. Much like the system that quickly altered expectations
late last week, this would more substantially limit morning
insolation, strengthening or at least delaying cap erosion, or
prematurely forcing early convective initiation along leftover
outflow boundaries. While this is admittedly a low probability
solution, given the inherent volatility with CAMs, confidence in
the exact timing and coverage of Monday`s severe threat remains
limited until the evolution of this overnight complex becomes
clearer.

Provided that wave of convection weakens as modeled, increasingly
breezy S-SW winds are then expected by midday Monday in the
wake of the attendant surface warm front lifting across the area
Monday morning, while a surface low tracks to our N-NW. Gusts
of 20-25 mph, up to 30 mph on the Eastern Shore, are forecast
during the afternoon outside of any convective development.
Increasing moisture may lead to a bit more cloud cover than
previous days, but temperatures will still rise well into the
90s, yielding afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to low
100s.

Forecast soundings show increasing instability by early
afternoon, but also highlight some lingering convective
inhibition that will need to be overcome. It still appears that
rain chances will ramp up after 3 to 4 PM Monday as the cap
erodes. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for
severe weather for most of the area Monday, noting that while
the environment could support multiple storm modes, damaging
winds remain the primary threat. However, the tornado threat
will be relatively maximized across our northern tier of the MD
Eastern Shore counties right along the southern periphery of
the warm front. Meanwhile, small to marginally severe hail will
also be possible area wide within the strongest updrafts.

In terms of storm mode, multicellular storms and bowing line
segments are favored at this time. Deep-layer bulk shear is not
expected to be overly strong, ranging from ~25-35 kt across the
far north, tapering to ~20 kt south of Interstate 64. However,
low-level lapse rates will again be quite steep due to very warm
surface temperatures, favoring the potential for cold-pool
dominated storms with water-loaded downdrafts. Additionally,
PWAT values increase to 1.75-2.00" through the day, leading to
the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Widespread flooding
issues are certainly not expected given very dry antecedent
conditions, but we will need to monitor urban and typical poor-
drainage areas. Current QPF values range from around 0.25" in
the southeast to near 1.00" in the northwest, though localized
totals over an inch are entirely possible in the stronger
storms. The shower and storm threat will continue through the
evening before tapering off overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A more summer-like pattern takes hold for mid
to late week.

The front drops across the area on Tuesday, though the timing
might be slow enough that southeast VA and northeast NC may
still be able to warm up into the upper 80s with dew points in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Most guidance suggests that enough
instability will linger across the area, especially near the
coast, to support some additional shower and thunderstorm
development Tuesday afternoon. This potential would be largely
mitigated if the frontal timing ultimately trends a bit quicker,
with time. For now, we have maintained low-end rain chances
through Tuesday afternoon until better multi-model consensus can
be reached.

For the remainder of the week, a more typical summertime
pattern sets up for late week. Mainly seasonable temperatures
are expected, with diurnally driven, scattered late-day and
evening showers and storms possible each day. Expect highs
mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s, with overnight lows in the
60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions at all terminals to begin the TAF period. W-SW
winds inland ~5-10 kt, with seabreeze circulations making for
more variable winds out of the N-NE at PHF and E-SE at ORF and
potentially ECG later this afternoon. Winds veer to the S-SE
this evening into late tonight across all terminals as a warm
front starts to lift across the area. FEW-SCT high levels clouds
are forecast through tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase late
Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A more typical summertime
pattern evolves for the latter half of the week, with mostly
VFR conditions. However, but can`t rule out a few diurnally-
driven late day/evening tstms, with scattered early morning VSBY
restrictions due to early morning MIFG also possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue today and through most of
  tonight.

- S-SE winds strengthen on Monday ahead of the next system with Small
  Craft Advisories issued for all marine zones north of the
  VA/NC border from Monday through parts of Monday night.

Weak surface high pressure remains over most of eastern CONUS this
afternoon, allowing benign marine conditions with mostly southerly
winds around 5-10 kt. With the light flow, seas breezes are
expected. A low pressure system tracks towards the area tonight from
the mid-Mississippi River Valley, passing just to the north of the
area Monday night. The low will drag a warm front through the area
tonight, reinforcing the S-SE flow with wind speeds around 10-15 kt
before sunrise. Winds increase to 15-20 kt on the rivers, and 20-25
kt across part of the bay and the offshore waters north of the VA-NC
border (with gusts to 30 kt) behind the warm front during the day
Monday. Winds will be a few knots less across the NC waters. Wind
speeds will peak late Monday afternoon into the early evening before
leveling off or diminishing slightly into Tuesday morning. Seas will
build to 3-4 ft south/4-6 ft north. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect for all marine zones north of the VA/NC border from late
monday morning through Monday night.

Additionally, isolated strong to severe storms are possible late
Monday afternoon into Monday evening, which will likely necessitate
SMWs. As the low tracks to our north, a weak cold front will cross
the waters Monday night. By Tuesday morning, winds will have shifted
out of the N-NW around 5-10 kt. Winds will likely increase slightly
Tuesday night to ~10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, but looks to stay below
SCA criteria in the Ches. Bay. Improving marine conditions are
expected Tuesday night through midweek as high pressure returns.

A low rip current risk remains in place today across all area
beaches. Monday, the rip risk increases to high across the northern
beaches and moderates across VA Beach and Eastern Currituck.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ635>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ654-656.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...ERI/KMC
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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