Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

356
FXUS61 KAKQ 031757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1257 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 12Z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather continues into the middle of this week with above
average temperatures.

2) Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible, although some uncertainty remains
regarding rainfall amounts and placement.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues into the middle of this week
with above average temperatures.

Surface analysis shows the area of high pressure still centered over
our area this morning. This has allowed to winds to fall calm and
skies to become mostly clear overnight. Guidance is rather
persistent with more widespread fog developing over the next
few hours, likely becoming dense in places. Higher confidence
for fog is east of I-95, so please be on the look out for
reduced visibilities during the morning commute. Any fog will
quickly disperse after ~8-9am giving way to mostly clear skies.
High temperatures today are forecast to be 10-12 degrees warmer
than yesterday as upper level ridging builds in, with most
everyone warming up in the low to mid 70s. The warmest
temperatures will be across SE VA and NE NC where some upper 70s
are possible. More fog is possible Tuesday night, though it
doesn`t look quite as widespread for now. Lows will be warmer
than this morning as we bottom out in the upper 40s west of
I-95 and lower to mid 50s to the east. The area of high
pressure will slide further offshore on Wednesday ahead of the
approaching weather system from the west. High temperatures will
warm a few additional degrees as the flow aloft becomes more
southwesterly. Mid to upper 70s are forecast for most of the
area, though can`t rule out an 80 degree reading across
interior NE NC. Thicker cloud cover will move in later
Wednesday, keeping low temperatures rather mild around 60
degrees.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible, although some uncertainty
remains regarding rainfall amounts and placement.

Models continue to come in slightly better agreement with the
evolution of the low pressure system to our west for mid-week and
beyond. By Wednesday, the closed low will be centered over MN/WI,
with its associated cold front extending down along the Mississippi
River Valley. The low then looks to open into a trough as it shifts
across the Great Lakes on Thursday. The cold front will move into
the state during the day, as our winds turn southerly and
dewpoints jump into the mid 60s. Rain chances for the daytime
hours of Thursday have substantially declined. Can`t totally
rule out a stray shower, but the GFS and NAM (who`s last day of
existence is today...thanks for everything, NAM) keep us mostly
dry during the daylight hours.

The focus of the rain chances has certainly shifted to Friday
on most guidance as the cold front potentially lingers over the
area. Current model runs show a line of rainfall developing
across the area Thursday night and becoming locally heavy in
spots Friday morning/early afternoon. Still hesitant to place
too much confidence in these local QPF maxes due to model
differences remaining. However, it is worth noting that both
the GFS and ECMWF are showing localized maximums of over 2
inches. But again, uncertainties persist regarding the exact
placement and magnitude of the heavier precipitation, especially
given the potentially convective nature of the rainfall. With
that being said, a few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday
night into Friday, though the degree of instability looks to be
rather low. Low pressure will become better organized across
Quebec Friday night into Saturday, abruptly sending the cold
front offshore. This will bring an end to any rain chances for
the weekend.

High temperatures will be well above normal on Thursday ahead
of the front with mid to upper 70s forecast, and perhaps even
80 degrees across interior NE NC. Only modest cooling is
expected behind the front, with low to mid 70s on Friday and
lower 70s on Saturday. Widespread low to mid 60s (which is
normal for this time of year) look to make a return to start the
new week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon
and evening with mainly clear skies and light winds. Another
round of patchy fog and/or stratus is possible later tonight
into early Wednesday morning. Have included MVFR VSBY (3-4 SM)
BR restrictions at all terminals, generally around 08-13z
Wednesday. While confidence in widespread IFR conditions is low,
localized IFR restrictions cannot be ruled out, especially
where winds become calm. Any fog/stratus should dissipate
shortly after sunrise Wednesday, with VFR conditions returning
to all sites.

Outlook: Mainly VFR Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, though
patchy early morning fog is again possible Thursday AM. Rain
chances increase Thursday night into Friday, with widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms potentially resulting in
periods of sub-VFR conditions. Conditions improve Friday night
into Saturday, with VFR conditions generally anticipated for the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through mid-week before a potential
weather system approaches.

Light and variable winds prevail over the waters early this morning
with high pressure offshore ridging westward into the area. The high
gradually moves farther offshore by Wednesday with benign conditions
expected to continue. Winds become SE later today/tonight and
increase to ~10 kt on Wednesday before becoming S Wednesday night. A
cold front slowly approaches the waters on Thursday night/Friday
before crossing the area late Friday or Friday night. Southerly
winds increase to ~15 kt by Thursday night as the pressure gradient
tightens a bit ahead of the front. Winds become NW Friday
night/Saturday following the FROPA, but are expected to remain below
SCA criteria as post-frontal CAA will be very weak. Despite sub-SCA
winds through the period, low-end SCAs are possible on the ocean for
~5 ft seas due to southeasterly swell. However, confidence in this
is still quite low.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/JKP
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...ERI