Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

750
FXUS61 KAKQ 301905
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
305 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore coastal
waters north of Cape Charles through early Saturday, and remain
in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River and the
southern nearshore coastal waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into
early next week.

2) Rain chances have continued to trend down for early
next week, with no precipitation currently in the forecast. Rain
chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures to
start the month of November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend
continues into early next week.

Early afternoon wx analysis shows ~1028mb high pressure centered
over the upper Great Lakes, ridging SE toward the local area. The
well-advertised dry cold front drops across the region over the
next few hours, with winds becoming N-NW behind the frontal
passage. No real cold air advection just yet...allowing for one
more warm day across the region. 18z Obs were well into the 70s
over the area, with some readings in the lower 80s across the
piedmont.

CAA arrives tonight, with winds increasing and veering around
the N then NNE tonight and overnight. Temps fall into the 40s
in most areas, with lower 50s in coastal SE VA/NE NC with the
flow off the water. Cooler, dry, and pleasant on Halloween, with
highs in the lower to middle 60s. Given the cool, dry airmass
and diminishing winds, temps fall off quickly (to the upper
40s-50s) during the evening. High pressure builds over the area
tomorrow night through Sunday. Lows Sunday morning drop into
the low-mid 40s by Sunday morning, with even cooler readings
possible Monday morning. Turning slightly milder (upper 60s) on
Sunday with some additional clouds Sunday morning ahead of an
weakening shortwave approaching from the SW.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances have continued to trend down for early
next week, with no precipitation currently in the forecast. Rain
chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures to
start the month of November.

The chance for measurable rainfall continues to decrease for Sunday
night into Monday despite the passage of the previously
referenced shortwave. Despite considerable cloudiness, low-level
moisture will be significantly lacking. Looking ahead, a gradual
warming trend takes place early next week, as low amplitude
upper ridging builds east across the region, as surface high
pressure moves well offshore. Widespread lower-mid 70s appear
likely on both days. Precipitation chances finally return to the
forecast by next Thursday-Thursday night as a stronger low
pressure system potentially tracks from the Mississippi River
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. However, forecast
confidence in this potential welcome rainfall remains
understandably low given the timing.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions across area terminals looks to persist through
the 18z/30 TAF period. Generally light NW winds early this
afternoon, becoming gusty out of the N-NW in the next few hours.
A dry cold front crosses the area tonight, which will allow
winds to become NNE late tonight through Saturday. The wind
should remain high enough tonight to preclude any fog
development.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through at
least Sunday. Remaining dry through the weekend and likely into
early next week. The next chance for rain comes late next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 PM EDT Friday...

- A northerly wind surge brings Small Craft Advisory conditions
  for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound,
  and coastal waters tonight into Saturday morning.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail for the weekend into early next
  week with E-NE flow.

Sub-SCA W-NW winds are in place across the waters this afternoon.
There is a large area of high pressure centered over the northern
Plains and western Great Lakes, though it extends well SE into the
most of the eastern CONUS. There is also a diffuse cold front that
stretches from coastal New England into the OH/TN Valley. Winds
should remain <10 kt through sunset today, before cold air advection
behind that cold front brings a quick increase in northerly winds by
later this evening. The current forecast has these winds increasing
to 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, highest on the coastal waters
and lower Chesapeake Bay. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for
all of our Chesapeake Bay zones, lower James River, Currituck
Sound, and all of the 0-20 nm coastal water zones. Note that these
were expanded to include the zones N of Cape Charles with this
afternoon update. Given the N-NNE wind direction, seas also
quickly increase to 4-6 ft, highest in the southern waters and
potentially up to 7 ft in the 20-60 offshore zones. Winds
quickly diminish later Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon, with seas slowly following. SCAs drop off mid-morning
in the bay, sound, and lower James and in the afternoon for the
ocean due to those lingering higher seas.

High pressure builds southward into the area for the later half of
the weekend into early next week. Sub-SCA E-NE winds will prevail
during this time with 2-4 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves in the bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ630>632-634-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...SW