Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

557
FXUS61 KAKQ 230719
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
319 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry with a slight chance of showers today. A backdoor
front approaches the area Friday with additional showers or
thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the boundary.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as
a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure
tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with a slight chance of showers
today. A backdoor front approaches the area Friday with
additional showers or thunderstorms possible along and ahead of
the boundary.

High pressure is centered offshore early this morning with a
weak surface trough over the Mid-Atlantic region. Mostly clear
early this morning with temperatures ranging through the 50s to
lower 60s. Sunny later this morning with temperatures quickly
warming to near 80F inland by noon. Forecast soundings show some
weak instability in NW flow aloft, which may result in some
widely scattered showers or perhaps a rumble of thunder through
the afternoon. However, forecast soundings continue to show very
dry conditions below 800mb, which will result in high-based CU
and limit much if any of the precip reaching the surface once
again. Even with the dry near-surface layer, very light winds
are expected Thursday which will mitigate fire weather concerns.

A backdoor cold front drops into the area Friday afternoon.
There is a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms in vicinity of the
boundary, but overall coverage is expected to be limited given a
lack of rich moisture. Warm inland Thursday and Friday with
highs in the 80s. Lower to mid 70s are expected along the coast
Thursday, and upper 60s/lower 70s Friday as the backdoor front
nudges onshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into
Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a
wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler
temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

00z/23 deterministic and ensemble guidance depict a cold front
dropping to near the VA/NC border Saturday. Timing of this front
will have an impact on high temperatures Saturday as very warm
conditions should continue ahead of the front, and trends have
been slower with the front. Therefore forecast highs are in the
upper 70s to mid 80s inland W and SW of the Ches. Bay, with
cooler conditions behind the from the Northern Neck to the
Eastern Shore. A wave of low pressure tracks along the front
later Saturday into Saturday night bringing rain chances to the
region. 24 hour 00z/23 EPS 50th percentile QPF through 18z
Sunday remains on the order of 0.2-0.4", while the GEFS remains
less than 0.2", and the GEPS has up to ~0.5" for SE MD and less
than 0.2" elsewhere. Probabilities of exceeding 0.5" are
generally 20-40% N and NE from the EPS/GEPS and less than 20% S,
while the GEFS 0.5" probs are generally 20% or less for most of
the area. All the ensemble guidance keeps the axis of highest
rainfall totals across southern NY, eastern PA, and NJ. This
precip would not substantially alleviate drought concerns, but
would definitely be welcome. A few tstms are possible at the
onset Saturday afternoon. Temperatures behind the front will be
cooler with highs in the 60s Sunday (lower 70s SW Piedmont) and
lows in the mid 40s Sunday night. High pressure is progged to
return by Monday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Another front potentially moves into the area by
Tuesday with ensemble 50th percentile QPF showing mainly
0.15-0.30" area averages this forecast cycle.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR under a mostly clear sky as of 06z with a light WSW wind.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight. SCT
to occasionally BKN high-based CU are expected to develop inland
this aftn (FEW-SCT) toward the coast. There is a slight chc of a
shower/tstm at RIC, but confidence is not high enough to include
in the TAF. The wind becomes W/NW 5-10kt later this morning into
the aftn, with a sea-breeze likely pushing inland 20-22z
shifting the wind to E/SE (NE at ORF) at most sites, with the
exception of RIC. Mostly clear tonight with a very light wind.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front could trigger a few showers/tstms
Friday aftn (20-40% chc). Low pressure tracks along the
boundary Sat afternoon into Saturday night, bringing an
increased chc of showers and flight restrictions. High pressure
builds to the N Sunday with an onshore component to the wind
persisting along the coast, which could result in persistent
lower cigs. VFR and dry conditions return by Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Light flow and benign conditions expected through Saturday.

- Stronger winds, elevated seas, and Small Craft Advisories are
  possible Sunday into early Monday.

High pressure is centered offshore of the Southeast coast this
morning. Locally, a weak surface trough was passing through the
waters, though W/SW winds are generally light (10 kt or less).
Winds gradually become W-NW later this morning, followed by
light onshore flow this afternoon as weak sea and bay breezes
develop. Similar winds for Friday as additional sea breezes
develop. A weak frontal system could also spark a few showers or
storms Friday afternoon and evening. By Saturday, a somewhat
stronger front and area of low pressure are likely to advance SE
from the Great Lakes vicinity, sparking additional shower and
isolated thunderstorm activity. However, the current forecast
keeps winds in the sub-SCA range through this period. Stronger
NE winds are possible by Sunday as low pressure deepens
offshore, with SCAs possible for winds and elevated seas. High
pressure nudges back in the region Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/RHR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW