Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

109
FXUS61 KAKQ 290952
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
552 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dry weather conditions are likely to prevail until late next
week.

Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 7 AM for the NC
coastal waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Outside of some patchy fog/low stratus this
morning above normal temperatures return Today and Friday. Dry
weather pattern is looking likely for Halloween weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Outside of some patchy fog/low stratus this
morning above normal temperatures return Today and Friday. Dry
weather pattern is looking likely for Halloween weekend and into
early next week.

Early morning weather analysis shows weak zonal SW flow aloft. While
at the surface, a 1028mb high pressure sits off the New England
coast. The pressure gradient over the area remains weak allowing for
weak NE onshore flow to occur. Temperatures and dew points  are
ranging between the upper 40s to low 50s inland and upper 50s to low
60s across SE VA and NE NC. In addition, due to clear skies, higher
dews, and light winds across the piedmont and interior SE VA and NE
NC, a low stratus deck and patchy fog has developed. Through the
rest of the morning the stratus and patchy fog will continue to
expand and cause reduced visibilities. No SPS or Dense Fog has been
issued at this time due to Visibilities staying up. However, if
conditions worsen through the early morning an SPS or Dense Fog may
potentially be issued.

For today, the stratus and patchy fog is likely to burn off by 10am
giving way to another nice fall day. Highs today range from the
upper 60s across the immediate coast and low to mid-70s elsewhere.
By Friday, the high pressure will be pushed south due to an
approaching cold front. This cold front is expected to push through
the area by Friday afternoon. However, its initial push is to advect
drier air as the cooler air lags behind. This will allow for
Fridays temps to make a run into the upper 70s and low 80s. These
temperatures mixed with low 50s dews will give way to RH of 35-40%
in the afternoon across interior VA and NE NC. In addition,
breezier conditions are possible especially across the Northern Neck
and Eastern Shore where the stronger upper level winds reside. Gusts
upwards of 20 to 25mph cannot be ruled out. By Friday night the
cooler air returns helping temperatures back to near/just above
climatological normal for the weekend.

Dry weather conditions are forecasted to prevail through the late
weekend and into early, as upper ridging builds over the region.
Halloween continues to look dry pleasant, with increasing clouds
ahead of of a weak cold front allowing for optimal Trick-or-Treating
conditions across the region. Looking Monday into early next week
the potential for the pattern to become slightly unsettled continues
to remain low due to high pressure aloft sitting over the area. The
deterministic models and their ensembles have completely back off on
any rain chances during the first couple days of November. The next
best chance of rain may potentially come late next week. However,
confidence is low at this time due to how far we are out and some
ensemble disagreement.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 552 AM EDT Thursday...

Patchy fog and low stratus has developed along the Eastern
Shore and the Piedmont of VA. These weather conditions are
bringing MVFR/IFR CIGS & VIS flight restrictions to RIC and SBY.
ORF and ECG are expected to remain clear of these conditions.
However, PHF still remains questionable on if the fog/stratus
makes it down the peninsula. Nevertheless, all terminals are
forecasted to return to VFR by late this morning, with winds
veering around to the S-SW inland, S-SE coastal terminals at 5-8
kt. By tonight, winds will become light and variable with
another potential round of fog/stratus tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Other than some potential for patchy AM fog,
dry weather and VFR conditions returns each morning through
Sunday. Remaining dry through most of the weekend, though some
light rain will be possible later Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect through 7 AM for nearshore
  NC coastal waters for 5 ft seas.

- Light winds prevail tonight through most of Friday. N-NW winds
  increase later Friday, with Small Craft Advisories likely for
  most zones Friday night through early Saturday.

High pressure is centered off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast,
ridging into the local area, with low pressure across Florida
and the Bahamas early this morning. NE winds average 5-10 kt.
Seas are still elevated off the NC coast as buoy obs indicate
4-5 ft seas so have extended the Small Craft Advisory through 7
AM to cover this. Elsewhere, seas are 2-4ft, and waves are
mostly ~1 ft (~2 ft at the mouth of the Bay).

Low pressure lifts NE off the coast of Florida tonight into
Friday, keeping seas at 3-4 ft for the southern ocean zones
despite light winds. Meanwhile, a strong area of low pressure
lifts E-NE from Quebec to Atlantic Canada on Friday, pushing a
trailing cold front south into the local waters during the day.
Winds turn to the NW at 5-10 kt, with winds potentially getting
a little higher late in the day across the upper Bay and
northern coastal waters. With the airmass remaing very warm
through the day, mixing over the waters will be poor through the
day, and higher gusts would be more likely over land Fri aftn.
By Friday evening, significantly cooler and drier air surges
south, with pressure rises on the order 4-6 mb/6 hr as strong
(>1030 mb) sfc high pressure builds SE from the Great Lakes.
Local Probs for 18 kt sustained winds are >50% for most of the
local waters so have maintained elevated N-NE winds during this
time, and expect SCAs will be needed for all but the upper
rivers Fri night into early Saturday, potentially lingering
through most of the day for the southern coastal waters and
mouth of the Bay. Winds/seas decrease thereafter with sub-SCA
conditions expected Sat night through the early part of next
week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AC/LKB