Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KAKQ 231045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
645 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Warnings start this morning for all of Hampton
Roads as moderate flooding is expected with the morning high
tide in multiple locations. All other Coastal Flood headlines
remain unchanged.

Wind advisories remain in effect for the immediate coast as
winds will likely gust in excess of 50mph this afternoon into
Thursday night.

Confidence in the forecast for this weekend remains below
average due to uncertainties with a developing coastal low.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and rainy conditions
will continue today as cold air damming stays parked over the
area.

2) Rain chances gradually shift east Thursday, potentially making
for a drier end to the week. Gusty winds will persist.

3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding
(inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by
the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong
northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for
several tide cycles given the persistent northeast winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and rainy
conditions will continue today as cold air damming stays parked
over the area.

Current radar imagery shows widespread heavy drizzle across the CWA,
with a nearly stationary band of rainfall from west of Farmville to
Cambridge that has been putting out very efficient rainfall rates in
spots. Observations are limited, but a gauge in southwestern
Powhatan has recorded 5.36" in 3-4 hours. The heavier part of
the band is just to the east of that gauge right along the
Appomattox River. Radar is estimating around 3.5-5" along the
border points of Cumberland, Powhatan, and Amelia Counties. The
Appomattox River from Farmville to Mattoax is starting to show a
response from the rain, so will have to keep an eye on it if
this band doesn`t move soon as the water makes its way
downstream. Speaking of, the latest hi-res guidance keeps this
band around well into the morning hours, but potentially
expanding in coverage to the west and south. Surface analysis
looks like that it may be positioned along a moisture boundary
between 925-850mb, sitting along the cold air damming wedge that
has sagged down into our area. There is nothing aloft to move
these batches of rainfall around as the wedge keeps the
environment more stagnant, so as we saw yesterday as well, where
rain develops, it could sit for an extended time. Thus,
localized flash flooding will continue to be a concern through
the day. Models show coverage may become a bit more scattered
later this afternoon, with the better rain chances shifting
southeast/east.

High temperatures will range from the lower 60s for the northwest
half of the CWA to low to mid 70s for the SE, with the higher end of
that range along the immediate coast. It may feel a bit chillier
outside to some today because in addition to the well-below normal
temperatures, NE winds will also remain elevated. Inland areas will
see gusts to 20-25mph. Coastal locations will keep the strongest
winds as gusts to 30-40mph are likely. The entirety of our Atlantic
coastline (including Ocean City, Chincoteague, Virginia Beach, and
Corolla) are expected to have gusts upwards of 45-50mph, not
only for the day today, but persisting through Thursday night -
a Wind Advisory is in effect. This will cause dangerously high
surf, beach erosion, and multiple rounds of moderate to major
coastal flooding. See below for more details.

There may be another round of widespread heavy drizzle during the
late evening and into the overnight hours as more moisture rotates
around the low pressure developing offshore. Low temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler tonight with low to mid 50s
expected west of I-95.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances gradually shift east Thursday,
potentially making for a dry end to the week. Gusty winds will
persist.

Rain chances look to become more confined to eastern portions of the
area Thursday as the low becomes a bit better organized offshore and
the persistent ridge of high pressure over southeastern Canada
begins to break down. This will allow the wedge to weaken over us on
later Thursday as well. Additional rounds of light rain will likely
come ashore throughout the day keeping the drizzly skies around for
everyone through mid-day, then shifting to primarily the eastern CWA
by the afternoon hours. As mentioned above, NE winds will remain
strong along the coast again on Thursday (gusts to 35-50mph -
strongest along the Atlantic) with inland locations seeing breezes
to 20-25mph. We`ll be able to squeeze another well-below normal day
of high temperatures out of the cold air damming wedge, topping out
in the low to mid 60s for the west and even lower 70s for the coast.

The coastal low looks to finally starting moving slowly northward
Thursday night. Our winds will turn more northerly allowing drier
air to filter in. Dewpoints may even drop into the upper 40s across
the west. This will make for our coolest night of the week as
lows bottom out in the upper 40s across the far west (Louisa,
Fluvanna, Prince Edward, western Lunenburg), low to mid 50s
inland, and lower 60s along the coast. Slight model differences
then impact the forecast for Friday and into the weekend, though
they`re closer in agreement than they were 24 hours ago. The
GFS has the better solution for us, quickly taking the low up
offshore of Massachusetts by Friday night and keeping it up
there through the weekend. The ECMWF lingers the low offshore of
our area through Saturday, then finally lifts it north. The NBM
guidance falls more in line with the GFS, so have kept
lingering rain chances along the immediate coastline through the
day on Friday. West of I-95 should start to see some clearing
skies. Highs on Friday will begin to warm back up while still
remaining below normal with upper 60s to lower 70s for most
everyone. Friday night will be another cool night with far
western areas dipping down to 50 degrees (could see a spotty
reading in the upper 40s in the cooler locations). Expect mid to
upper 50s along the coast. Despite the improving rain/cloud
cover conditions, north/northwest winds will remain elevated
into Saturday along the coast. This shift in wind direction will
likely cause different areas to experience additional tidal
flooding, so please see the latest forecast updates for that
information. Can`t rule out some showers along the far northern
coast of the Maryland Eastern Shore on Saturday, especially
depending on the exact track of the low. Highs for the weekend
will warm into the mid to upper 70s (lower 70s along the Eastern
Shore). Winds look to finally subside through the day on
Sunday. Welcomed high pressure will build in to start the new
week with high temperatures warming a bit each day.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding
(inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the
afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal
flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles given the
persistent northeast winds.

The Coastal Flood Warning now starts this morning for all of Hampton
Roads to VA Beach, as water levels are forecast to reach moderate
flood thresholds with the morning high tide at Ft Monroe, and crest
0.4 ft above moderate flood stage at Lynnhaven Inlet. Otherwise,
Coastal Flood headlines remain unchanged.

Northeast winds have increased to 20-30 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt.
The strongest NE winds are expected later today-Thursday, with winds
gradually becoming N then NNW on Friday and Saturday while
diminishing slightly (especially across the bay and rivers). Tidal
anomalies are already ~2.5 ft above normal across the middle and
lower bay and will continue to rise through Thursday. (especially
along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). Fairly widespread
moderate tidal flooding is expected with this morning`s high tide,
with widespread moderate to major flooding expected for the 3 high
tide cycles from this evening through the Thursday evening/night
high tide. Some sites (especially Jamestown/Lynnhaven/Smithfield)
could crest around 0.5 ft above major flood stage. Coastal Flood
Warnings remain in effect for nearly the entire tidal area through
Thursday night/Friday morning. There is some uncertainty with
respect to the forecast on Friday and Saturday as winds become N-
NNW. ETSS still shows moderate flooding in the lower bay and tidal
rivers through Friday night`s high tide (and even moderate at
Jamestown on Saturday) despite the wind direction becoming less
favorable for tidal flooding. In past events where the wind has
turned from the NE to NNW, water levels have tended to fall quicker
across the lower bay and York/James. For now have gone a bit below
ETSS for the lower bay starting Friday but will continue to keep a
close eye on the forecast. On the other hand, ETSS shows steady or
slowly rising water levels across the upper bay/bay side of the MD
Eastern Shore with the diminishing winds Fri/Sat. Again, there is
uncertainity here but there is some potential that moderate to
locally major tidal flooding continues farther north through Friday
and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...

Widespread low-end MVFR to IFR conditions this morning as DZ/RA
persists for most everyone. RIC and ORF continue to see IFR
CIGs, with the rest hovering in low-end MVFR, though PHF may
bounce in and out of IFR for a few hours. ENE winds have come up
at all terminals, with 12-16G24KT expected through the period
inland (RIC) and 18-25G28-32KT for the rest of the terminals.
Expecting SHRA to persist through ~21Z, though they may become
more SCT through the day. CIGs may also come back up into MVFR
for everyone briefly this afternoon. Could get another round of
DZ/-RA, especially for eastern terminals late evening into the
overnight with VIS reductions possible.

Outlook: At least intermittent degraded flight conditions are
likely through Thursday as the unsettled weather pattern
persists. Coastal terminals will also have elevated NE winds
for an extended period, with winds remaining elevated and
shifting to the N-NW into the weekend. CIGs should gradually
improve late week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Gale force wind gusts are likely to continue through much of the
week and possibly into the weekend for the offshore waters. Gale
Warnings remain in effect for all marine zones except the upper
rivers.

- A short period of sustained gale force winds is possible late
today-tonight across the lower bay and nearshore coastal waters. The
offshore waters may see a longer period of sustained gale force
winds (potentially through Thursday/Thursday night).

- Seas build to 10-15+ feet, leading to dangerous marine conditions.

Early morning wx analysis shows developing ~1011mb low pressure a
couple hundred miles off the coast of NC, with strong, ~1038mb high
pressure over southern Quebec. Northeasterly winds have increased to
20-30 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt (highest north). Seas are 8-11 ft.
Conditions continue to deteriorate today into tonight as NE winds
increase to 25-30 kt on the upper bay/lower James and 30-35 kt on
the lower bay and ocean. Dangerous marine conditions are expected
though Thursday as seas build to 10-15+ feet. The strongest winds
are likely to impact the local waters tonight into Thursday as 925mb
winds increase to 40-45kt and the stronger CAA arrives. With the
unstable marine boundary layer and water temps in the mid to upper
70s, wind gusts at that level should easily be able to mix down to
the sfc. Therefore, confidence remains fairly high that we will see
a period of sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt across
the ocean and lower bay from this evening-Thursday. Gale Warnings
run through Thursday evening for the upper bay, part of Thu night
for the lower bay/lower James, Friday morning for the ocean, and
Friday afternoon for the offshore (20-60nm) coastal waters. As the
high weakens a bit by Thursday night, expect winds to become north
and diminish to 20-25 kt on the bay/Lower James and remain in that
range on Friday. Local wind probs for 34 kt+ winds remain aob 20% on
the bay from late Thu night and Fri. The surface low is progged to
rapidly deepen well offshore Friday into Saturday as it tracks to
the NNE. The pressure gradient on the back side of the low likely
remains tight enough for gale force gusts to continue across the
nearshore coastal waters through Friday morning (potentially
longer...but not confident enough to extend gale headlines attm).
Gale gusts may very well continue through Fri night or even Sat
across the offshore (20-60nm) waters as the deepening low approaches
New England. The wind direction will gradually become NNW by Sat.
There is still some disagreement in the guidance with respect to the
track of the low Fri/Sat, so will continue to monitor. Winds should
finally diminish Sunday and fall below SCA thresholds by Monday.

Dangerous surfing conditions will continue through Thu with the
prolonged onshore flow, and remain high into the weekend due to
elevated seas even as the winds become NNW. Localized beach/dune
erosion is possible as well. High Surf Advisories remain in effect
through early Thursday evening for now.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ024-025.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ025.
     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ102.
     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for NCZ017-102.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098>100.
     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for VAZ098>100.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078-085-
     086-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ081>084-089-
     090-097-098-518-520-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633-
     639-658.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ633-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654-656.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ658.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ680-682-684-686.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ688.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JKP/ERI
AVIATION...JKP/RHR
MARINE...ERI