Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

621
FXUS61 KAKQ 251740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
140 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Discussion. No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable humidity
continue through Wednesday.

2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable
humidity continue through Wednesday.

An upper trough is located across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast early this morning. At the surface, a weak cold front
is pushing S across the region. Mostly clear and pleasant with
temperatures primarily in the 60s. Surface high pressure over
the Midwest will build across the Mid-Atlantic in the wake of
the cold front today through tonight, before settling offshore
Wednesday. Comfortable humidity levels for later August will
continue today with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
Mostly clear tonight with low temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s NW to upper 60s SE. High temperatures increase a few
degrees into the mid/upper 80s Wednesday as high pressure
settles offshore. Dewpoints will increase as well, but overall,
humidity levels will remain tolerable for August.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled conditions return mid to late week
with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Global models indicate that surface high pressure settles off
the Southeast coast later Wednesday into Thursday and the flow
aloft shifts back to the SW. A few showers/tstms could creep
into western portions of the area Wednesday evening. Otherwise,
Thursday and Friday have the best potential for more coverage of
showers/tstms as a slow moving front slowly approaches the
region. The severe risk appears to be rather low both days with
500mb flow around 20-25kt and the potential for morning clouds
and a few showers both days. However, if precip can hold off
until the afternoon hours a few stronger tstms are possible,
especially given that our local area will be under the RRQ of a
strengthening jet core over New England. The main threat will be
locally heavy rain from showers/tstms. However, this threat is
not particularly significant at this time given that there is
some mid-level flow, and uncertainty with regard to organization
and overall coverage. The ERO is only `Marginal` both Thursday
and Friday. The consensus amongst the 00z/25 models pushes the
front S Saturday with the best shower/tstm chances across SE
VA/NE NC, then trending drier Sunday/Monday with PoPs near to
slightly below climo.

Seasonally hot and humid Thursday through Sunday with high
temperatures primarily in the mid to upper 80s, and potentially
trending above average into the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/25 TAF period. N-NE winds are
5-10 kt across the area this afternoon and will become light and
variable overnight. SCT CU has developed over a large portion of the
area and will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this
evening. Then, tonight will be mostly clear. S-SE winds will
increase in the morning to 5-10 kt at all terminals.

Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through
Wednesday. Shower/tstm chances return Thursday through Saturday with
brief sub-VFR conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly benign marine conditions expected through the forecast
  period.

- Watching for a brief period of Small Craft Advisories in the
  Chesapeake Bay later Wednesday into early Thursday as
  southerly winds become gusty.

A surge of northerly winds is overspreading the waters this
morning. Expect winds to increase to 10-15 kt on the Chesapeake
Bay and the VA coastal waters over the next few hours, with
gusts up to 20 kt likely. While just shy of SCA thresholds, will
keep an eye on the trend on observations and potentially raise
a Marine Weather Statement if the 20 kt gusts become widespread.
Seas will also briefly increase to ~3 ft through this morning,
with ~2 ft in the Chesapeake Bay (potentially around 3 ft in the
lower bay). Winds diminish this afternoon into tonight as high
pressure moves overhead. The high shifts offshore Wednesday and
winds are forecast to become southerly in response. A 6-9 hr
period of southerly winds gusting to 20-25 kt is possible late
Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning, which could
necessitate marginal Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake
Bay. Winds then become S 10-15 kt Thursday and then S-SW 5-10 kt
Friday. Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected for the upcoming
weekend. Seas average 2-3 ft Wednesday- Sunday. The chance for
tstms is very low until Thursday-Friday.

Rip Currents: A 10-12 sec long-period (but weak) swell will
combine with the short-period wind swell from the northerly
winds today. With nearshore waves nearing 2-3 ft, will have a
Moderate rip current risk for VA Beach and the northern OBX.
Expect a low risk elsewhere and a low risk at all beaches
Wednesday. A Moderate risk is possible at the northern beaches
by Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ/KMC
MARINE...SW