Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

483
FXUS61 KAKQ 191940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
240 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions prevail tonight through Thursday. A low
pressure system will bring chances for rain Friday and Saturday.
High pressure builds back into the area Sunday into early next
week leading to dry conditions. Another low pressure system may
impact the area Tuesday into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cloud cover builds south across the area later this afternoon
  into tonight.

- Mainly dry, but cool and mostly cloudy Thursday.

This afternoon, a cold front has dropped south of the area and
weak low pressure (~1017 mb) is located off the Mid Atlantic
coast. Meanwhile, high pressure continues to build over New
England, wedging south into the local area. This has allowed for
a weak CAD setup to begin to take hold over the area, with low
clouds developing over northeastern portions of the area.
Widespread lower clouds are currently in place for areas roughly
north of I-64 and east of I-95 with temperatures only in the 40s
or lower 50s. For the remainder of the area, currently seeing
sunny to mostly sunny skies with temperatures ranging from the
mid 50s north to the upper 60s south.

Clouds build further S and SW later this afternoon and evening,
becoming widespread over a majority of the area tonight as the
wedge takes hold. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s
N and NW, to the mid 40s further SE. Patchy drizzle and/or
patchy fog cannot be ruled out in a few spots tonight due to
saturated lower levels.

Remaining dry on Thursday, but with high pressure lingering to
our NE, onshore flow/weak CAD continues to look probable. This
will lead to a mainly overcast day, with some clearing possible
later in the afternoon across southern and western portions of
the area. High temperatures will range from the lower 50s north
to around 60 south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer Friday, with low end rain chances.

- Chances for rain showers Friday night/Saturday, drying out
Saturday night.

High pressure moves offshore Thursday night into Friday as our next
low pressure system approaches from the west. Remaining cool/cloudy
Thursday night into the first part of Friday. A warm front likely
lifts north over the area Friday morning into Friday afternoon,
bringing at least a chance for rain, with the highest PoPs (~40%)
focused across NW portions of the area. High temperatures on Friday
will range from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s south. Higher
rain chances are expected Friday night through at least the first
half of Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west and
crosses the area. Not expecting much QPF with this system, with
storm total amounts ranging from ~0.15" to 0.35" per the latest run
of the NBM. Probabilities for > 0.5" of QPF are only around 15 to
20% (highest across northern portions of the area). Rain chances
diminish Saturday afternoon-evening from west to east, with dry
conditions returning Saturday night. It will be a mild day on
Saturday with highs ranging from the lower 60s across northern
portions of the area, to the lower (possibly mid) 70s across
portions of interior NE NC. Finally, cannot rule out a rumble of
thunder Saturday afternoon, mainly across southern portions of the
area. Cooler Saturday night with lows dropping back into the 30s and
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather into early next week.

- Another storm system potentially approaches Tuesday into the
middle of next week.

High pressure builds across the area Sunday through Monday night,
leading to dry weather and temperatures near to a little above
normal. No appreciable chances for below freezing temperatures
through the middle of next week at least. Another system potentially
approaches Tuesday into the middle of next week, bringing the next
chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions to start off the forecast period at all sites
outside of SBY. MVFR stratus has developed across the NE corner
of the area (including SBY), with bases ~1000 to 1500 ft. The
low stratus layer will gradually spread further south and west
as we head through this afternoon/evening, eventually impacting
all TAF sites late this evening into tonight. CIGs should stay
MVFR, but can`t completely rule out a brief period of IFR CIGs
at SBY from ~21 to 00z. In addition, a period of IFR CIGs is
possible at the eastern TAF sites ~06z, but confidence is too
low to include in the forecast at this time. MVFR CIGs hang
around through tonight and much of Thursday before some
(potential) gradual improvement late in the forecast period.
Winds this afternoon are primarily out of the N or NW this
afternoon and are expected to become NE later this evening
through the remainder of the period (~5 knots or less).

Outlook: At least morning flight restrictions are expected
Thursday given onshore flow and low level moisture, but would
expect improvement later in the day. The next chance for light
rain arrives Friday into Saturday with the next system, which
could lead to additional flight restrictions. At this time,
Sunday looks dry and VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Brief northerly surge brings marginal Small Craft Conditions
  to the Chesapeake Bay, Atlantic coastal waters, and the
  Currituck Sound through this evening.

- SCA conditions possible in the wake of another cold front Saturday.

Weak low pressure is pulling away from the Mid-Atlantic coast this
afternoon with winds becoming NNW and N as high pressure builds into
the area. Winds have increased to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt over
most of the area. A few gusts ~30 kt are noted at elevated
observation sites and offshore. Waves are around 2 ft with seas
2-3 ft.

In coordination with neighboring offices, have included the coastal
waters and Currituck Sound in the ongoing SCA headlines that were
issued this morning for the Chesapeake Bay. North winds have
increased as low pressure moves away from shore. This surge is
expected to be pretty brief with all headlines scheduled to come
down by 10pm this evening as high pressure moves in. Thereafter,
benign conditions are expected to persist from late tonight through
the end of the week. Waves will average 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft.
High pressure translates offshore on Friday ahead of the next front.
A period of SCA conditions is possible on Saturday behind the cold
front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ633-
     656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR