Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

766
FXUS61 KAKQ 152302
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
702 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonable conditions continue through Wednesday
night, with unseasonably hot weather and chances for showers and
storms returning later this week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 700 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable conditions continue through
Wednesday night, with unseasonably hot weather and chances for
showers and storms returning later this week into the weekend.

This evening, a ~1030mb high pressure was centered over New
England, ridging southward into the local area. A refreshingly
dry and comfortable airmass has settled over the region, with
temps in the 70s and dew points in the 50s as of 645 PM. High
pressure settles over the area tonight, leading to light winds,
mainly clear skies, and another night of excellent radiational
cooling. Low temperatures will likely drop into the mid-upper
50s inland, with some pockets of lower 50s possible in the
typically cooler spots. Closer to the coast, lows will likely
range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Patchy ground fog is
possible across the Piedmont and interior portions of the lower
MD Eastern Shore late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

High pressure will begin to settle SW of the local area over the
Carolinas on Wednesday. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on
Wednesday compared to today, ranging from the mid (locally upper
80s) inland to the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast under a
mostly sunny sky. Another cool night Wednesday night with lows
dipping back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. A warm up commences on
Thursday, along with an influx of slightly more humid air, ahead of
an approaching cold front from the NW. Seasonably hot on Thursday
with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and low to
mid 80s along the immediate coast.

The upper ridge currently centered over the Tennessee Valley well
center further to the SW later this week, allowing for a cold front
to approach the local area on Friday. Scattered showers and storms
will be possible along and ahead of this front, but severe weather
is not anticipated at this time. The front likely stalls south of
the area Friday night into Saturday before lifting back to the north
as a warm front later in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue at all sites through the 00z taf
period. Mostly clear skies continue through Wed afternoon.
However, a brief period of FEW-SCT cloud cover is possible
across far SE VA/NE NC (including ORF and ECG) late tonight.
Otherwise, patchy ground fog is possible across the Piedmont and
MD Eastern Shore late tonight into Wed morning, potentially
impacting SBY. As such, have added patchy fog to the SBY taf.
Any fog quickly dissipates after sunrise. Given the high
pressure overhead, winds become light and variable/calm
overnight before a light onshore flow develops Wed (5-7 kt).

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through at least Thursday night.
Scattered showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon-
evening, which could lead to localized instances of sub-VFR
conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions likely prevails into the
upcoming weekend outside of any localized ground fog.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Sub SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week. A
  front drops southward late Friday with increasing onshore winds.

Surface high pressure is slowly drifting offshore in New England and
eastern Canada this afternoon. Winds are generally NE 5-10 kt but
are slightly stronger across the far southern waters where the
pressure gradient is a bit steeper. Waves have relaxed to 1-2 ft in
the bay with seas 2-4 ft N and 3-5 ft S. SCA headlines remain in
effect for the ocean south of the VA/NC border. Decided to trim the
end time to 4 PM based on observational trends so far this afternoon
with buoys hovering in the 4.3-4.6 ft range as of 2 PM. The sfc high
is forecast to drift south and be nearly overhead of the local
waters Wed-Thu, with winds shifting to the E-SE and continuing
around 5-10 kt. Seas are expected to subside to 2-3 ft by Thursday,
with sub-SCA conditions continuing Friday. For the weekend, the 12z
models still show some enhanced onshore flow behind a front Friday
night into Saturday with strong high pressure to the north again.
Winds are mainly in the 10-15 kt range and primarily for the
nearshore zones and into the southern Ches Bay. However, it doesn`t
take much in the way of dry/cool air to result SCA conditions this
time of year with very warm local waters. Will continue to watch
this period in subsequent forecast cycles.

Seas are expected to continue to diminish this evening and
Wednesday. There is a Moderate Rip Risk in effect for the southern
beaches Wednesday and Thursday as swell energy slowly subsides. A
Low Rip Risk expected for all area beaches on Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR