Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

880
FXUS61 KAKQ 261118
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
718 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- No significant changes/Updated discussions

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chilly this morning with areas of fog/low stratus across much
of VA, with patchy frost in the coldest spots along and west of
I-95.

2) Remaining dry through the week. Above normal (but still
seasonable) temperatures prevail through the end of the week into
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chilly this morning with areas of fog/low stratus across
much of VA, with patchy frost in the coldest spots along and W
of I-95.

The latest WX analysis indicates an amplified pattern with and
upper level ridge in place from the western Gulf coast to the
Great Lakes, and an upper trough offshore. At the surface, ~1030
mb high pressure is centered nearly overhead, bringing cool
temperatures and little to no wind. Patchy ground fog and low
stratus have developed, and have issued an SPS for locally dense
fog across southside VA to interior SE VA (but the coverage and
intensity of fog has is not enough to warrant a Dense Fog
Advisory). Temperatures early this morning are still primarily
in the upper 30s to lower 40s in a saturated airmass so while
the Frost Advisory remains in effect for portions of the
piedmont, conditions look marginal and frost development will
tend to be patchy and confined to the most sheltered areas as
min temperatures will mostly be in the mid to upper 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining dry through the week. Above normal
(but still seasonable) temperatures prevail through the end of
the week into next weekend.

After the cold start, conditions today will be warm with light
winds in place ahead of the next front which is still well off
to the NW of the region today. Expect a mainly sunny sky with
highs into the lower 70s inland, and mid to upper 60s along the
coast (blended in some of the warmer numerical guidance with the
cooler NBM). Slightly warmer tonight, though still expect to see
some upper 30s in the normally colder spots of rural interior
southern VA where the pressure gradient remains weak and allows
for another night with good decoupling. A weak front is forecast
to drop through the area later Tuesday, shifting winds back to
the N-NE with a modest increase in wind speeds along the coast.
Just a few clouds are expected with near zero chances for rain
with this front. High pressure is expected to be centered N of
the area Tue night, then become anchored off the southern New
England to mid-Atlantic coast Wed-Thu with low pressure staying
suppressed off the SE coast to the Bahamas. The 26/00z ECMWF
ensemble/GEFS chance for measurable rain (.01"+) of rain through
the end of the month is basically zero aside from some low
probs showing up in southeastern portions of the area later in
the week into the following weekend from the EC ens. (GEFS has
none), but when switching the threshold to 0.1"+ the EC ens.
basically has zero probs as well. It should be noted that
despite the ongoing drought/precipitation deficit across much of
the area, none of our long-term climate sites will rank among
the 10 driest Octobers on record (as October has several
occurrences with monthly rainfall amounts of less than 0.50").
Temperatures Wed will be near normal, rising above normal late
in the week with highs warming well into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

Patchy fog/low stratus continues early this morning, mainly
across interior SE VA. Expect periodic IFR- LIFR conditions at
PHF through 12-13Z, Otherwise, the sky will become SKC after
the early low stratus and fog dissipate. Winds today will be
rather light, generally WNW at RIC and SBY, and N/NE at PHF,
ORF, and ECG. Clear tonight with some patchy fog possible mainly
across interior southern VA and NE NC.

Outlook: High pressure builds north of the region Tue, and settles
off to our NE Wed. N-NE winds Tue will become elevated near the
coast at 10-15 kt (generally less than 10 kt inland). Winds
shift to the E at 5-10 kt Wed. Other than some potential for
patchy AM fog, dry WX and VFR conditions continue through late
in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

Elevated seas prevail across the south through this evening.
Otherwise, relatively, benign marine conditions are forecasted to
prevail through much of the week.

Early morning weather analysis shows high pressure centered over the
Commonwealth. The pressure gradient across the waters has weakened
over the northern waters allowing winds to be less than 10kt out of
the NNE. While across the south the gradient remains slightly
stronger allowing NNE winds to remain around 10-15kt. Seas this
morning are around 1-2ft across the bay and 2-4ft north of the Capes
and 4-6ft with occasional 7ft seas south. Small Craft Advisories
continue to remain in effect for the southern waters through this
afternoon. Through the day high pressure will slide to the SW
allowing winds to lighten slightly but shift to the W around 5-10kt.
With the shift in wind direction this should allow for the seas to
slightly decrease to 1ft across the bay and 2-4ft across the coastal
waters allowing the potential for the SCA to be dropped by this
afternoon. By late tonight/early Tues AM a weak cold front is
forecasted to move through the area allowing for winds to increase
and shift back out of the NE. The surge of the cooler and drier air
looks to be relatively weak and winds are forecasted to remain sub-
SCA with winds around 10-15 kt with perhaps some 20kt gusts across
the coastal waters Tuesday. The main threat that could potentially
bring SCA conditions across the coastal waters is the elevated seas.
After Wednesday marine conditions continue to look benign.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060>062-
     064-067>069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...HET