Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

774
FXUS61 KAKQ 191940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
340 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

Freeze Watches have been issued for many areas along/west of
I-95 Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increased fire danger possible on Monday.

2) Cold tonight with lows dropping back into the 30s and 40s. Frost
and/or freeze conditions are looking increasingly likely Monday
night into Tuesday morning, with the best chances for freezing
temperatures roughly along/west of I-95 and over to the MD
Eastern Shore.


3) A warming trend is expected through mid to late week. Rain
chances remain low until perhaps the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increased fire danger possible on Monday.

Only minimal rainfall has fallen across the area this afternoon,
with total amounts ranging from ~0.10-0.20". Showers will continue
to weaken as they drift to the east later this afternoon. The
combination of the very dry fuels, RH values crashing into the 20 to
25% range (possibly teens in spots), and gusty NW winds will likely
lead to an increased fire danger across much of, if not all of the
area on Monday. One possible limiting factor is that a secondary
cold front will be dropping south across the area, potentially
allowing for increased cloud cover and possibly slightly higher RH
values. Winds will likely be too low for a Red Flag Warning, though
the best potential would be in North Carolina.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold tonight with lows dropping back into the 30s
and 40s. Frost and/or freeze conditions are looking increasingly
likely Monday night into Tuesday morning, with the best chances for
freezing temperatures roughly along/west of I-95 and over to the
MD Eastern Shore.


For tonight, temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s for
many inland locations as high pressure briefly builds overhead,
allowing for strong radiational cooling. Cannot rule out some patchy
frost, especially for the typically cooler spots.

For tomorrow night, strong high pressure builds over the region,
allowing for even better radiational cooling compared to tonight.
Temperatures will likely fall into the low to mid 30s for many
inland areas. Upper 20s are even possible across our NW counties and
the typically colder locations. It should be noted that MOS guidance
is as low as the lower 20s across our far NW. With such a dry
airmass in place combined with little to no wind Monday night, would
not be surprised to see temperatures drop even more than what is
currently in the forecast. A Freeze Watch has been issued for much
of the area roughly along and west of I-95 and over to the MD
Eastern Shore where there is the best potential to see sub-
freezing temperatures. Even though the airmass will be quite
dry, frost formation temperatures (<36F) are expected for much
of the area away from the coast and Frost Advisories will likely
be needed as a buffer around any Freeze headlines.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend is expected through mid to late
week. Rain chances remain low until perhaps the weekend.

Tuesday afternoon the high pressure will slide off the SE coast
allowing temperatures to moderate (though still remaining below
average, especially on the coast and the Eastern Shore). Then
through the middle to the end of the week temps return back above
normal with highs into the 70s and 80s. As for rain chances, they
continue to to remain quite minimal. As for rain chances this week,
a cold front drops into the area on Wednesday, bringing at least the
chance for showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms. Neither
the 12z EPS or GEFS are impressed with this system, only averaging
~0.10" of QPF (at most). A potentially stronger system impacts the
region this weekend, bringing another chance for rainfall. The
ensembles have slightly higher QPF with this second system, but this
still does not appear to be a drought buster.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

A cold front has crossed the local area with gusty NW winds in
its wake. A line of light rain showers has passed RIC and will
continue to move east into the remaining sites over the next
couple of hours. MVFR CIGs (bases ~3000 feet) and potentially
brief MVFR VSBYs will be possible as the showers move east.
Otherwise, we are already seeing clearing across the western
half of the area, with dry/VFR conditions expected at all sites
by this evening. Winds become gusty late Monday morning into
Monday afternoon as a secondary cold front drops south across
the area.

Outlook: Conditions remain VFR through Tuesday. Another front
may drop south across the area Wednesday, bringing at least a
low-end chance for rain showers and increasing cloud cover. VFR
conditions Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Solid SCA conditions will decrease this evening with sub-SCA
conditions tonight.

- Another cold front will cross the area Monday. Additional SCA are
likely for the Chesapeake Bay Monday afternoon into evening.

A strong upper air trough across the eastern CONUS has pushed a cold
front across the local waters this afternoon. The front has brought
solid SCA conditions across all local waters and a period of gusts
to 34+ kt. Winds have begun decreasing slight, and all SMWs have
expired at this point. Winds are NW 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in
the southern waters and mouth of the Ches. Bay and 10-15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt in the northern coastal waters. Waves and seas have
built to 2-5ft and 4-6ft, respectively. Winds will shift to be west-
SW by late tonight around 5-10 kt.

Another cold front will cross the area Monday afternoon, with a
subsequent northerly surge following for Monday afternoon and Monday
night. At this time, the Ches. Bay has the best potential for
additional SCA flags. Winds will increase during the day to 15-20 kt
with gust to 25 kt, peaking in the evening. High pressure passes
across the region Tuesday and settles offshore by mid to late week,
with a weak backdoor cold front potentially nudging into the area by
later in the week. Sub-SCA conditions expected to prevail aside from
Tuesday night/early Wednesday when a SSW increases to 15-20kt across
the Ches. Bay/lower James and coastal waters, bringing the potential
for low-end SCAs for the Ches. Bay and lower James. 3-4ft seas
Monday should subside to 2-3ft by Tuesday, with 2-3ft waves in the
Ches. Bay Monday/Monday night subsiding to 1-2ft Tuesday. Seas build
to 3-5ft later Tuesday night/early Wednesday with 2-3ft waves in the
Ches. Bay, subsiding to 2-3ft/1-2ft later in the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-079-080-509>513-515-517-
     519-521.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ635>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...KMC