Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

441
FXUS61 KAKQ 070949
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
549 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast continues to trend drier for Saturday, with a
better chance of rain Sunday night into Monday.

Updated discussion for 06z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front brings beneficial rain and cooler temperatures
to the region today.

2) Another cold front likely crosses the area later Sunday into
Monday, bringing additional chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings beneficial rain and cooler
temperatures to the region today.

Early this morning, a cold front is now entering northern and
western portions of the forecast area. The front will continue to
drop south through the area this morning, settling south of the
local area by this afternoon. Beneficial rain is expected over the
area today, especially the southern half, where ~1.00" (potentially
up to 2.00" in spots) is possible. Less rain is forecast across
northern portions of the area where ~0.50" is expected. While some
convective elements/a few rumbles of thunder are possible, the
overall thunderstorm chances today are low due to the morning FROPA.
The highest rain chances today will be during the morning hours,
before PoPs begin to diminish from NW to SE during the afternoon
hours. Much cooler temperatures are expected today due to the
rain/cloud cover, with highs struggling to get out of the upper 50s
to lower 60s across a majority of the forecast area. Some late
clearing/sunshine across NW portions of the area may bump up
temperatures a few degrees before sunset. Temperatures remain
slightly below average on Friday (upper 60s to lower 70s), but
moderate to near average by Saturday (mid to upper 70s), and above
average to close out the weekend on Sunday (80s).


KEY MESSAGE 2...Another cold front likely crosses the area later
Sunday into Monday, bringing additional chances for rain.

While there is a chance for some additional light rain on Saturday
as a quick moving system crosses the area, another stronger cold
front is forecast to cross the area late Sunday night or Monday
morning, bringing the potential for additional beneficial rainfall.
Rain showers may begin as early as Sunday afternoon and continue
through Monday afternoon. Both the 00z GEFS and EPS have decreased
QPF slightly with this system and average ~0.25" to 0.50" across the
local area. High pressure and near normal temperatures will return
for Tuesday, with temperatures moderating back into the upper 70s by
mid-week. Another system may impact the area on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 550 AM EDT Thursday...

A cold front is slowly dropping south across the region this
morning, allowing for increasing rain chances and diminishing
CIGs. MVFR CIGs (with pockets of IFR) have become widespread
behind the front this morning. CIGs are expected to drop over
the next few hours, with IFR CIGs expected at PHF/ORF/ECG around
or shortly after 12z, potentially continuing through much of
the daylight hours at ORF and ECG. CIGs improve to MVFR from
north to south late this morning into the afternoon for all but
the southern TAF sites. CIGs improve to VFR at SBY around 14z,
RIC around 18z, PHF around 21-23z, and ORF/ECG around 00-03z.
Rain decreases in intensity by this afternoon with light showers
ending by late afternoon into the evening. VIS is expected to
remain generally MVFR in showers, however, a brief reduction in
VIS to IFR is possible in heavier showers this morning. Winds
will become N immediately following the frontal passage,
becoming NNE later this morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions return tonight into Friday. A quick
moving system will bring a potential for a few showers Saturday,
mainly along the coast. An area of low pressure approaches the
region Sunday into Monday, bringing the potential for
additional showers and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

-Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Ches Bay, Lower James
River, southern nearshore coastal waters, and the Currituck Sound
this morning into the afternoon.

-Generally benign conditions Fri-Sun with the exception of a brief
NW surge early Fri.

Latest obs show benign conditions, albeit a little breezy with WSW
winds of 10 to 15 kt. Seas are around 3ft and waves are 1-2ft. A
cold front is dropping into northern VA early this morning and will
continue to press south and east through the early morning hours.
Light to periodically moderate rainfall will accompany it and trail
behind it. Winds become westerly, then N to NE behind the front
later this morning. A brief surge of winds is expected as the winds
turn to the north. Winds will increase to 15-20kt in the bay, lower
James, southern coastal waters, and the Currituck Sound. Gusts to
25kt expected. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for these
areas, staggering from N to S, starting with the upper/middle Ches
Bay at 4am, then the lower bay and lower James at 7am. The coastal
waters south of Cape Charles and the Currituck sound go into effect
at 10. Seas will increase to 4-5ft in the southern waters and 3 to
4ft in the northern nearshore coastal waters. Waves in the bay and
rivers will be 2-3ft. Winds quickly diminish this evening with
direction becoming variable as high pressure quickly builds in
behind.

High pressure looks to be transient, quickly sliding offshore by
Friday night. NW winds return late tonight into early Friday. Dry
air advection will allow for a brief surge early Friday morning.
This may require a brief SCA for the bay, but it would be low-
end/marginal. Sub-SCA conditions are then forecast to prevail
through the weekend. Breezy, southerly flow returns on Saturday with
gusts to 20kt. Much lighter (10kt or less) forecast for Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632-
     634-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ633-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/NB
AVIATION...AJB/RMM
MARINE...AC