Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

349
FXUS61 KAKQ 121142
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
742 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added low end rain chances and increased clouds to the forecast
Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled and humid through Sunday as a frontal boundary
lifts north later today, followed by a cold frontal passage late
Sunday. Numerous showers, thunderstorms, and localized heavy
rain today-tonight, with scattered showers/storms Sunday.

2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly
lower humidity Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures warm back above
normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled and humid through Sunday as a frontal boundary
lifts north later today, followed by a cold frontal passage late
Sunday. Numerous showers, thunderstorms, and localized heavy
rain today-tonight, with scattered showers/storms Sunday.

The latest WX analysis indicates a frontal boundary nearly
stationary across northern NC. A strong upper level trough is
noted on WV satellite imagery across the lower MS Valley, and
this trough will slowly translate eastward towards the local
area through tonight. SW flow aloft strengthens today, and
should help lift the frontal boundary back to north as a warm
front this aftn into this evening. A few spotty showers prevail
in the moist humid airmass early this morning, but most areas
will remain dry through midday. The recent CAMs are somewhat
split on shower/storm development later today, and taking a
blend generally develops low chc PoPs by late morning/early
aftn, with PoPs increasing to likely for most of the area after
~20-21Z (though with lower PoPs for the eastern shore).
Widespread precipitation chances peak after this and persist
into the evening, as the stalled boundary lifts back north as a
warm front, along with a more pronounced mid- level shortwave
disturbances push across the area. The latest models show the
best height falls aloft late-gnerally after midnight through
sunrise Sunday, so even after the best instability wanes, this
additional cold air pool aloft should be sufficient to keep
high chc to likely PoPs continuing overnight. Forecast soundings
continue to show high precipitable water values, modest
instability (skinny CAPE profile), and weak steering flow, which
should yield efficient warm rainfall processes and additional
localized hydro concerns (supported by an area-wide WPC ERO
Marginal Risk and a localized Slight for portions of the I-95
corridor, including metro RIC. Despite the increasing confidence
that localized flooding is possible somewhere in our forecast
area, there still remains uncertainty in the exact locations, so
have decided to not go with a Flood Watch for later today into
tonight. The 00Z/12 HREF, which often provides a good signal for
areas where the highest rainfall amounts, is not honing in on
any specific area at this time with the 3"/3hr PMM peaked at
only 10%. Considerable cloud cover will keep a lid on today`s
highs- the low 80s NW to the upper 80s SE. The boundary washes
out Sunday, leading to noticeably lower convective coverage for
the NW 1/2 of the area, but PoPs remain high chc to likely for
the SE and some late day storms are still possible in the NW as
well.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and
significantly lower humidity Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures
warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds
back into the region.

The upper level flow becomes NW on Monday as a strong upper level
trough dives SE from the Great Lakes and pushes off the NE and mid-
Atlantic coast Monday night, with an upper level ridge slowly
expanding NE from the lower MS Valley. This looks strong enough to
drive the sfc cold front well south of the CWA Monday, and bring
significantly lower dew pts more typical of September. The models
have trended a little farther south and slower with the shortwave
on Monday, so do expect to see a 3-6 hr window where clouds
increase and even a few isolated showers develop on Monday
before the much drier air surges in from the NNW during the
afternoon (with PoPs lingering through the aftn across the
southern areas). As high pressure builds in behind the front
Monday night, a pleasant night is expected Monday night/Tue AM
with lows mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s (low-mid 50s are
likely in many locations to the NW of Richmond). The models have
trended a bit slower with the return flow of moisture so that
now dew pts look to remain comfortable through at least
Wednesday as strong sfc high pressure (nearly 1030 mb), sets up
from off the New England coast SW into the Carolina coastal
plain through midweek. Highs will stay mostly in the low-mid 80s
through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at
the immediate coast). The upper level ridge is forecast to
expand E-NE to the TN Valley and central Appalachians Thu-Fri.
Temperatures climb back to above normal for mid- September,
with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s. Low end diurnal rain
chances return Thu-Fri (but have trended drier/lower form the
previous forecast cycle).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 AM EDT Saturday...

Mainly dry early this morning, with IFR-LIFR flight restrictions
mostly confined to southern VA and NE NC away from the immediate
coast, though expect some of this to affect RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG
through ~15Z so have TEMPO groups given the uncertainty an
variable nature of the CIGs bouncing around. Expect to see the
low clouds lift and potentially scatter out as the front lifts
to the north later today. At SBY, VFR to start, with CIGs
potentially dropping to MVFR after 15Z. While most of the
morning into early aftn looks to be dry, showers/tstms will
start to develop by early- mid aftn and become widespread from
late aftn or early evening, lingering through at least the first
part of tonight. The highest PoPs are at RIC/PHF, and lowest at
ECG. Periodic IFR- LIFR VSBY restrictions in heavy rain will be
possible during this timeframe. Winds will be E-NE, before
shifting to the SE later in the day and eventually to the SSW
overnight. The widespread SHRA/TSRA gradually diminish
overnight, but low CIGs likely redevelop between 06-12Z,
especially inland.

Outlook: Remaining unsettled Sunday, though with a lower
coverage of showers/storms than Saturday, with the highest probs
across SE VA/NE NC. Becoming dry and mainly VFR by Monday with
NE winds, then staying dry Tue-Wed with light winds expect
locally breezy SE VA and NE NC along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are favored this weekend
  through Monday morning.

- Low-end Small Craft Advisories are possible with increased NE
  winds behind a front Monday-Monday night.

A near stationary front is located just south of the coastal waters
early this morning, allowing E winds around 5-10 kt. E-SE winds will
continue throughout the day at 10-15 kt. Onshore flow should be able
to help seas build to 3 ft and perhaps even close to 4 ft off the MD
coast. The front will slowly push north towards the area later today
as a warm front. This will shift the winds out of the S/SW by late
this evening. Winds will generally be 10-15 kt, not increasing much
as the front is rather weak. Sub-SCA conditions are favored through
the weekend.

Another front is expected to cross the marine area on Monday, with a
wind shift to the NE following the passage. This front appears to be
a bit stronger, with some of the 00z/12 models showing the potential
for low-end SCA conditions behind the front late Monday. Local wind
probs show a 50-80% chc of sustained 18 kt winds in the Ches. Bay
and ~30% chc of 25 kt gusts in the coastal waters Monday into Monday
night. With the NE flow, 5 ft seas are possible for the southern
coastal waters during this timeframe as well. 5 ft seas could linger
in the 20-60 nm zones from Monday night into potentially mid-week.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches today
as onshore flow increases. A low risk of rip currents is expected
for the southern beaches today and all beaches Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...AC/KMC