Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

499
FXUS61 KAKQ 301921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
321 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Discussions.

Precip chances have increased across SE VA/NE NC Monday- Monday
night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and pleasant conditions continue through Sunday.

2) There is a chance for showers and a few storms across mainly
southern portions of the area on Monday (likely in the far SE).

3) Nuisance tidal flooding is possible in the lower bay, tidal
James River, and Atlantic coast tonight, with nuisance- minor
flooding possible in the upper bay/bayside of the MD Eastern
Shore Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and pleasant conditions continue through
Sunday.

An omega blocking pattern is staring to weaken across North
America this afternoon, though anomalous ridging persists over
central Canada flanked by a strong troughing over New England
and the Canadian maritimes. A sfc cold front has finally pushed
south of the area, with elevated N-NE winds along the coast (and
N-NW winds inland). Mostly sunny and pleasant with temperatures
now mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland W of the Bay,
and in the low-mid 70s closer to the coast and across the
eastern shore. Dew pts have dropped into the upper 30s to
lower-mid 40s over much of the region, with readings still in
the 50s over the far SW and along the coast. For tonight, winds
diminish shortly after sunset inland, but will remain elevated
through the evening closer to the coast, as sfc high pressure
across the Great Lakes builds SE. With the sfc high settling
overhead by early Sunday, expect lows to be rather cool for late
May, with widespread mid to upper 40s for the piedmont, and even
into some rural locations east of I-95. At the coast, lows will
mainly range through the 50s. On Sunday, light flow and a mainly
sunny sky will prevail with the sfc high in control (some SCT
cumulus in the SE possible). High temperatures will be below
average, with mid-upper 70s inland, and low-mid 70s near the
coast. Increasing clouds and milder Sunday night with lows in
the 50s to near 60 F. Could see a few light showers toward
daybreak Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2) There is a chance for showers and a few storms
across mainly southern portions of the area on Monday (likely in
the far SE).

A potent northern stream trough and cold front dives out of
Eastern Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the
Northeast CONUS, eventually dropping south and possibly trying
to become cut off by Wednesday off the Carolina coast. The sfc
low is forecast to pass by south of the CWA Monday, and there
will be at least a chance for rain showers across the southern
1/2 of the area, with PoPs likely to categorical into southside
Hampton Roads and NE NC. Heavy rain is not anticipated, but QPF
amounts have continued to trend up, with 0.25-0.50" along the
Albemarle sound in NE NC, tapering sharply to 0.10" or less into
most of VA through Tuesday. Otherwise, expect high temperatures
on Monday to hover around 80 degrees inland and the 70s closer
to the coast.

Temperatures likely remain below average Tuesday and Wednesday
(highs in the 70s) before a gradual rebound to average and
potentially above average by the second half of the week as the
heights rise over the eastern US.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Nuisance tidal flooding is possible in the
lower bay, tidal James River, and Atlantic coast tonight, with
nuisance- minor flooding possible in the upper bay/bayside of
the MD Eastern Shore Sunday night.

With increasing N-NE winds behind the cold front, water levels will
become slightly elevated along the Atlantic coast and in areas
adjacent to the lower bay/tidal James tonight. Forecast water levels
0.3-0.5 feet below minor flood stage attm. No plans for any statements
tonight. When winds turn to the S-SW Sunday night, nuisance to low-
end minor flooding is possible on the upper bay (especially at Bishop`s
Head and perhaps Cambridge and Crisfield).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/30 TAF period. High clouds are
pushing south w/ a FEW-SCT cumulus over south-central VA. Winds
are gusty this aftn, generally N-NW inland gusting to ~20 kt,
N-NE with gusts as high as 25-30 kt at the coast. Winds diminish
fairly quickly this evening inland, but remain elevated along
the coast into tonight, before dropping off after 06Z. Light
winds/mostly sunny Sunday, with SCT cumulus across SE VA/NE NC.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue into early
Monday. An area of low pressure passes by south of the region
Monday, bringing a chance for showers- SE terminals could see a
few flight restrictions, but they are very unlikely elsewhere.
N-NE winds could once again be elevated along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay,
Lower James River, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound into tonight.

- Generally benign marine conditions are favored on Sunday and
Monday, except for a brief period of low-end SCAs possible Sunday
night on the bay.

- SCAs are possible with NE winds from Tue-Wed, but there is a lot
of uncertainty regarding this scenario.

The dry cold front crossed the local waters this morning. N and NE
winds in its wake are 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt (highest in the
southern Ches Bay). Waves and seas have taken some time to respond
to the stronger winds but are currently 2-4 ft in the bay and 3-4 ft
offshore. Expect seas to build to 4-5 ft later this afternoon and
evening, possibly up to 6 ft near and south of the VA/NC border.
Farther offshore (20-60 NM), seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft
tonight. No changes to the ongoing SCA headlines with winds expected
to diminish by mid to late evening from N to S. Seas also decrease
from N to S with seas likely lingering aoa 5 ft for the southern
coastal waters into Sunday afternoon. Thereafter, generally benign
marine conditions are expected late Sunday into Monday. Latest
guidance continues to show the potential for very marginal SCA
conditions in the bay late Sunday night into early Monday as high
pressure translates offshore and SSW flow strengthens.

Forecast uncertainty increases by the middle of next week. Most of
the deterministic and ensemble guidance shows low pressure deepening
offshore while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes/Northeast
CONUS during the Tue-Wed night timeframe. While a period of N-NE
winds is likely (with SCAs conditions) given the pattern, the
proximity of the low to the coast will determine whether we see
winds of 10-20 kt or a more impactful event.

High rip current risk Sunday for southern beaches, moderate rip
current risk northern beaches.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-
     631-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632>634-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...ERI/RHR