Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

704
FXUS61 KAKQ 201929
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
329 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Monday has expanded some
to now include all of west of I-95. The Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall on Tuesday has been removed from the area.

Confidence continues to increase for a coastal low bringing
rainfall, cooler temperatures, and a breezy forecast mid to late
week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chance for showers and storms returns today and Monday as a slow-
moving front moves in.

2) Persistent onshore flow and a potentially strengthening coastal
low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of
the week.

3) Widespread minor to moderate tidal flooding
(inundation of 1-2 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the
middle of the week due to strong northeast winds, with localized
major tidal flooding possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday..

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for showers and
storms returns today and Monday as a slow-moving front moves
in.

Latest wx analysis shows a slow moving cold front across the Ohio
River Valley slowly approaching the area today and Monday. With
the front approaching, there is a chance of showers/storms both
days. This afternoon/evening, the best chance for scattered
showers/storms will be in the north/northwest portions of the
area. An isolated strong to severe storm with damaging wind
gusts in the piedmont cannot be ruled out, as SPC maintains a
Marginal Risk of severe weather across this area today. With the
approaching front being rather weak and not having enough
strength to cross the local area, storms will likely struggle to
become strong from lack of forcing. Some shower activity could
linger into the overnight hours.

Monday, the slow moving front will continue to push further south,
potentially taking all day to reach the NC border, and then pushing
back north overnight. This will create quite a gradient in
temperatures for Monday. For those north of the front, generally
Richmond and north, highs will top out in the upper 70s to lower
80s. South of the front, mid to upper 80s will once again make their
presence known. Our far southern NC localities could even approach
90 degrees. If the front does change its timing at all, this will
affect the temperature forecast. The front will once again bring
another chance of showers and storms, with the best chance south of
the front with the higher amounts of instability. Showers and storms
may be able to develop in the southern half of the area Monday
afternoon with the front and building back towards the northern
half. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of severe weather west of I-
95, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. WPC
continues with a Marginal Risk of excessive flooding for areas
generally west of I-95 as well.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a potentially
strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier
forecast for most of the week.

The forecast for the rest of the week will be highly dependent on
the location and strength of a developing low pressure off the
coast. With the large high pressure parked to our north, we will be
entering a prolonged period of onshore flow. A Cold Air Damming
wedge set up looks likely for us Tuesday into Wednesday, though it
isn`t quite as strong as what models were portraying the last few
days. With the wedge, forecast highs vary greatly across the area
with highs on Tuesday in the lower 70s (locally upper 60s) in the
piedmont and MD Eastern Shore and lower to mid 80s across SE VA/NE
NC. Wednesday`s highs are cooler with temperatures in the lower 60s
across the piedmont to mid 70s across SE VA/NE NC. Will note that
the NAM, which typically is the most aggressive (but can have the
right idea with wedge set ups) has highs in the mid 50s in the
piedmont and lower 70s along the coast on Wednesday.

Along with the cooler temperatures, breezy winds and wet conditions
are expected through the end of the week. Winds will begin to
increase on Tuesday as well, with coastal areas seeing gusty
conditions by the evening and potentially lasting all the way into
at least Friday. Rain chances will persist each day next week, with
WPC placing us in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall each day.
The previous Slight Risk on Tuesday has been removed. Guidance does
keep trying to develop localized areas of significant rainfall
totals off and on through the period, so keep in mind that some
instances of flash flooding may be possible as those rain chances
remain. Some guidance is even showing a secondary surface low
developing off our coast later in the week, which would prolong the
period of impactful weather even longer. Regardless, this coastal
low will bring impactful weather to our area for an extended period
of time. Model differences and timing limitations are still creating
some uncertainty in the details, so please stay tuned to the latest
forecast as we work out the details.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread minor to moderate tidal flooding
(inundation of 1-2 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the
middle of the week due to strong northeast winds, with localized
major tidal flooding possible.

Strong northeast winds are expected from Tuesday night through at
least Thursday, which will cause water levels to rise across much of
the area (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic
coast). No tidal flooding is expected through Tuesday. A significant
rise in tidal anomalies is forecast on Wednesday. Minor tidal
flooding is likely (locally moderate) as early as the Wednesday
morning high tide cycle, with minor to moderate flooding forecast
during the Wednesday evening high tide, with localized major
flooding possible. This corresponds to inundation of 1-2 ft AGL in
vulnerable areas (locally 2-3ft). Specifics will become more clear
as we get closer. The highest water levels will likely occur along
the south/west side of the Ches Bay, tidal York/James, and Atlantic
coast. The minor to moderate tidal flooding potentially persists
through several tide cycles as NE winds remain elevated.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the first half of the
18z/20 TAF period. FEW-SCT high CU clouds around 3-5k ft have begun
developing across the area this afternoon. VFR CIGs will continue
through a large portion of the night, but MVFR (or locally IFR) CIGs
likely push in from the north around 08-11z Monday through the
early morning, affecting all but NE NC terminals (ECG). There is
a chance of SHRA/TSRA this evening, mostly across northern and
western terminals; however, confidence is too low to include in
TAFs. If a wetting rain is received, patchy ground fog is
possible. S-SW winds around 5-10 kt will continue through this
evening, decreasing to ~5 kt overnight, then becoming more NE
Monday.

Outlook: A stronger cold front slowly crosses the region Monday into
Tuesday bringing a more unsettled pattern with degraded flight
conditions through at least mid-week. Coastal terminals may also
have elevated northeasterly winds for an extended period.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are forecast through Monday, although a
  brief east to northeasterly surge is possible late Monday
  afternoon/early evening behind a cold front.

- SCA level winds are forecast beginning late Monday night into Tuesday.
  Confidence in a period of gales with NE winds continues to
  increase from Tuesday night-Thursday, with the strongest winds
  likely occurring from Wednesday-Thursday. This will lead to
  significant to potentially dangerous marine conditions with
  10-13+ ft seas.

High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast this aftn. The
wind is generally S/SE 10-15kt, and locally S 15-20kt off the MD
coast. Seas range from 3-4ft N to ~4ft S, with 1-2ft waves in the
Ches. Bay and locally 2-3ft at the mouth of the Bay. The wind
gradually becomes SW 10-15kt this evening and then shifts to N later
tonight as an initial boundary drops S along the coast. Seas will
mainly be 3-4ft with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

Confidence remains high in a significant pattern change this week. A
stronger cold front will initially cross at least the northern half
of the marine area on Monday, potentially making it to the VA-NC
border. Winds will become NE and could increase to near 20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt by Monday evening (best chances N). The front then
may stall for a bit Monday night into the first part of Tuesday
before advancing south across the entire marine area Tuesday into
early Tuesday evening. NE winds are progged to increase to 20-25 kt
south/25-30 kt north by Tuesday evening as stronger CAA ensues. A
few gale force gusts are possible north of Parramore Island as early
as late Tue aftn. Conditions could briefly approach SCA criteria
across the Ches. Bay late Monday aftn/early evening. However, the
duration is short and wind probs are no quite high enough to support
any flags at this time.

An impressive 1040mb high will build across eastern Canada by the
middle of the week as low pressure deepens a couple hundred miles
offshore of the VA/NC coast. This will help strengthen the CAA and
tighten the pressure gradient over the local waters. The strongest
winds are still expected to occur on Wednesday-Thursday as the
strong high remains anchored over southern Quebec and the offshore
low continues to gradually deepen. The global models are in better
agreement with respect to timing, and confidence in frequent gale
force gusts is now high with local wind probs showing a 70-100% chc
of 34+ kt wind gusts from Wed aftn through a good part of Thu. While
prevailing gusts are generally forecast to be in the 35-40 kt range,
a ~6 hour period of sustained gales with 40-45 kt gusts is possible
across the ocean and mouth of the Ches Bay during this time. This
will lead to significant to potentially dangerous marine conditions
from late Tuesday night through Thursday due to the strong winds and
10-13+ ft seas. It remains too early for Gale Watches, but expect
these to eventually be issued for most of the marine area as the
event gets closer. Solid SCA level winds will likely continue
through the end of next week as the low potentially lingers
offshore, with the wind trending to northerly later in the week and
potentially NNW by later next weekend. Of course, the exact timing
and placement of the synoptic scale systems are not locked in place
yet, but models continue to come into better agreement regarding the
general pattern. We will continue to monitor the trends as this gets
closer in time.

There is a moderate rip current risk forecast for all beaches Monday
from onshore flow. Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by the
middle of the week with the prolonged onshore flow. Localized beach
erosion is possible from mid to late next week as well depending on
how things evolve.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC/JKP
AVIATION...KMC/JKP
MARINE...AJZ/ERI