Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

319
FXUS61 KAKQ 152324
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
724 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 00z/16 TAFs.

A Gale Watch has been issued for the Bay, sound, and all ocean
zones Saturday-Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly cloudy overnight, then record to near record warmth
and breezy Friday with gusty showers possible along the front
Friday night into Saturday morning.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost
possible Sunday morning, mainly in the piedmont.

3) A lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong
coastal system lingering offshore or possibly retrograding back
towards the local area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly cloudy overnight, then record to near
record warmth and breezy Friday with gusty showers possible
along the front Friday night into Saturday morning.

The latest WX analysis indicates ~1023mb sfc high pressure centered
from southern New England to the northern mid-Atlantic region,
with a sfc cold front becoming nearly stationary across eastern
NC. A few light showers are ongoing over the northern portions
of the FA, but rainfall has been very light. Temperatures are
mostly in the mid to upper 60s along and north of I-64, with 70s
to the south (and a few lower 80s from south central VA to Bertie
Co. NC). It continues to be breezy along the coast, with gusts
to 25-30 mph, while NE winds inland are generally 10 mph or less.
Some light rain or drizzle may linger into tonight, mainly for
the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. As the front starts to lift
back to the north overnight, could see some areas of fog develop
inland and over the eastern shore, but most guidance suggests
this will be primarily low stratus. Low temps range from the
upper 50s NW to the mid 60s SE.

The front is expected to accelerate northward Friday morning in
response to strong low pressure moving NE from the Great Lakes
into the St Lawrence Valley (and sfc high pressure well offshore
by that timeframe). This will allow for a return to unseasonable
warmth (almost as warm as Wed), with highs ranging from the mid
80s to around 90F which is 15 or more degrees above normal.
Have included a Climate section below as record highs may be
challenged. The amplified upper level pattern supports a dry day
area-wide with the cold front lagging back until Friday
night/early Saturday. It also appears to be ana-frontal (with
precip along and behind the front). Hi-res guidance still
depicts the potential for thin strongly- forced line of
convection along the front Friday evening/early Saturday, but
the overnight timing and little stability should keep the SVR
threat rather low. With that said, strong kinematics aloft will
likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts 30-40
mph possible as the front comes through. SPC has mostly maintained
a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) across the the N and NE portions of
the area for strong to severe wind gusts. There will be little
if any thunder with these showers despite the potential for
strong wind gusts. For the day Saturday, the models are into a
bit better agreement with the timing, showing the upper level
shortwave hanging back to the west and not really crossing the
local area until 18Z or later. Will have likely to categorical
PoPs lingering through late morning/early afternoon across the
eastern portions of the FA, with drying from W to E. Temperatures
will be sharply cooler, in the 50s or 60s falling into the 50s.
With winds gusting to 30-35 mph, it will feel quite chilly and
be quite a change. Will maintain some low chc PoPs in the SE
through late aftn/early evening as the shortwave interacts with
lingering moisture.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend,
with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the piedmont.

Strong NW flow aloft in the wake for the shortwave will usher in
the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday.
Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but
there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally,
especially closer to the coast. With the sfc high forecast to be
1035mb+ , decided to undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the
northern piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to
sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dew pts, at least
patchy frost will be possible there. Farther east, stayed near
NBM values, as NE low level flow should keep lows much milder,
with lows ranging through the 40s (to around 50F at the immediate
coast). Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with
highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential
strong coastal system lingering offshore or possibly retrograding
back towards the local area.

Most of the latest 12Z model suite has trended more amplified
into next week, with an upper low developing along or not too
far off the SE US coast. The ECMWF remains the most bullish with
this pattern, and the GFS is generally the farthest offshore,
but all of the models have some degree of this setup. The NBM is
mostly dry, but is probably being too slow to react to the
latest model runs. While the forecast for Mon-Wed in mainly dry
currently, would anticipate seeing at least chc PoPs return to
the forecast for at least the eastern sections of the CWA. High
temperatures will be a little below normal, but seasonable.
Breezy conditions are likely along the coast.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Thursday...

A cold front sitting south of the area has allowed for generally
MVFR CIGs across the area this afternoon/evening (with the exception
of SBY, which over the last few hours has seen VFR conditions).
A few light showers in the northern half of the area are
possible behind the front over the next couple of hours as well.
Expect CIGs to decrease overnight to IFR to LIFR for most
locations. CIGs will begin to decrease to IFR ~06-08z for most,
with LIFR possible for most between ~10-13z. Additionally,
reduced VSBY is possible across the majority of the area from
~08-13z. Rapid improvements are likely after 14z, with VFR
conditions returning for the majority of the day ahead of the
next cold front. Friday afternoon, winds will increase out of
the NW ahead of the front, with gusts to 20 kt possible.

Outlook: Deteriorating flight conditions return later Friday evening
through Saturday evening as the stronger cold front crosses the
area. Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected Sat
morning into the afternoon, especially in the east.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- NE winds diminish into tonight before the cold front to the south
of the area returns north as a warm front.

- SW winds will increase to small craft advisory conditions by
Friday evening before a strong cold front pushes through the area
Friday night.

- Gale force conditions (especially in gusts) are expected starting
Saturday morning and continuing into Sunday (Sunday night across the
southern Coastal waters). A gale watch is now in effect for the
waters outside of the rivers.

NE winds have been slowly subsiding this afternoon as the weak high
over Quebec moves east. Due to the 5 ft seas over the southern
coastal waters, will need to maintain a SCA through 7pm over that
area. However, the remainder of the SCAs will likely be able to be
dropped at 4pm.

NE winds will generally be less than 15 KT tonight. The cold front
currently over NC will quickly move north Friday morning allowing
winds to shift to the SW and increase as strong low pressure over
the Great Lakes moves northeast to northern New England by Friday
evening. The associated cold front will then pass through the waters
Friday evening into Friday night. SW winds are expected to be near
or at SCA conditions by Friday evening. Then, immediately behind the
front the winds will turn NW. As frequently occurs, there could be a
brief surge of wind behind the front. However the strongest winds
will develop late Friday Night into Saturday morning as the winds
turn northerly and the strong high builds over the Ohio Valley.
Expect N-NE winds to gust to above gale force Saturday and continue
into Sunday. As such, a Gale Watch has been issued for all of the
waters outside of the rivers on Saturday into Sunday.

However, by Saturday night, the models diverge greatly on the
evolution of the winds into next week. The ECMWF suggest that an
area of low pressure will develop southeast of Hatteras by Sunday
allowing for strong N-NE winds to continue into Monday and perhaps
beyond. Meanwhile the GFS and the NAM suggest that a low will not
develop along the front, and gradually diminish the winds from north
to south on Sunday into Sunday night. Not a huge amount of support
of the ECMWF with the other deterministic models, and as such will
continue to trend toward the GFS solution at this time with
gradually decreasing wind from north to south Sunday Night into Mon
morning. However, it also must be noted that the ECMWF has been
fairly consistent in showing a strong low off the the Carolina coast
into early next week as the system becomes cut off from the main
flow aloft. If the ECMWF scenario does occur, there will be an
extended period of strong NE winds into the middle of next week
which will likely prolong the gale force winds. Another note, the
NBM does suggest winds will increase to gale force gusts Saturday
night in the lower James. This is a little early and there is some
uncertainty in this scenario as the winds would need to turn NE.
However, it is possible that a gale watch will need to be
introduced into the lower James as some point.

Seas decrease to 2 to 4 feet tonight over the coastal waters and 1
to 2 ft in the bay. However, seas rapidly build on Saturday with 8
to 11 ft seas in the coastal waters and 4 to 7 ft in the Bay by
Saturday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
- Record High Temperatures Fri 10/16:

- RIC: 90 (1897) (latest in season 90F on record)
- ORF: 87 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/14/2026)
- SBY: 85 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939)
- ECG: 86 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night
     for ANZ633.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654-
     656.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for
     ANZ656-658-686-688.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...AC/MRD
CLIMATE...LKB