Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

518
FXUS61 KAKQ 301030
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
630 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet conditions
and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

2) The latest ensemble guidance has trended warmer with lower rain
chances for the second half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message 1...High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet
conditions and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

Early morning analysis shows the area of high pressure continuing to
slide offshore while warmer and not-as-dry air is filtering back
into our local area. Dewpoints as of this writing have risen from
the 20s to the mid to upper 40s for most locations. Cloud cover has
also increased as a shortwave is moving into the Mid-Atlantic. Hi-
res guidance is still showing a slight chance of a light shower
across the MD Eastern Shore through mid-day as this feature passes
through. With the drier air in place, any rain that can make it to
the ground will only result in light QPF. Southwesterly surface flow
will allow high temperatures to warm into the lower 70s (upper 60s
for the Eastern Shore). Some afternoon breezes to 20-25mph are once
again expected. Min RHs won`t be nearly as low as they were
yesterday, but in collaboration with neighboring offices and NC
Forest Service, an Increased Fire Danger statement is in effect
for interior NE NC counties west of the Chowan River through
the daytime hours today as dry conditions will allow any fires
to spread rapidly. Deeper southwesterly develops Tuesday as
upper ridging builds into the Southeast. Highs will be in the
lower 80s (70s Eastern Shore), about 15+ degrees above normal
for this time of year. Breezy during peak heating hours, but RH
values will not be as low as Monday, which should preclude any
fire weather concerns.


Key Message 2...The latest ensemble guidance has trended warmer with
lower rain chances for the second half of the work week.

Wednesday will start off dry as temperatures soar into the low to
mid 80s (70s for the Eastern Shore). A cold front will approach from
the northwest later in the day bringing a chance of showers with a
few thunderstorms possible, especially across the NW half of the
area. A shortwave moves into the Ohio River Valley/Eastern Great
Lakes Thursday and Friday. However, latest guidance continues to
trend stronger with an upper ridge over the region, which keeps the
aforementioned cold front largely to our NW. Rain chances linger,
but are not as high, and are greatest across the
western/northwestern tier of the local area. Temperatures have
trended warmer Thursday/Friday due to the decrease in rain
chances.

Both of the current GFS and Euro runs are very similar in
showing the ridge breaking down a bit by Easter Weekend as a low
pressure system strengthens over the Northern Plains/Great
Lakes Region, sending a cold front our way. Timing details will
likely change, but agreement is rather high for rain moving in
during the afternoon of Easter Sunday. Under these conditions,
Saturday would remain rather warm in the 80s, with a cool down
starting Sunday depending on the timing of the front. Be sure to
stay tuned to the latest forecast if you have outdoor
activities planned for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today with high pressure
settling farther offshore. Mid and high level clouds are on the
increase, creating SCT-BKN skies for the period. Spotty SHRA
have also developed and will move across NE areas through mid-
day, possibly including SBY. SSW wind will pick up at all
terminals to 12-16kt with gusts to 20-25kt after ~14Z,
persisting through the afternoon.

Outlook...High pressure remains offshore through Wednesday with
SW flow continuing. Rain chances have diminished Wednesday
through Friday and VFR conditions are likely to continue other
than the chance for periodic flight restrictions in scattered
showers Wed aftn- Friday (mainly for northern terminals).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Winds gradually diminish this morning but will continue to remain
gusty through today, especially closer to land.

- Additional rounds of S to SW surges are expected tonight into
Tuesday and Tuesday into Wednesday. SCAs have been issued for the
northern coastal waters for tonight.


Early this morning, south to southwesterly winds are averaging ~15
kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt (25 kt northern Chesapeake
Bay/northern coastal waters). Seas are running around 3-4 ft, with
waves on the bay likely in the 2-3 ft range. Winds remain gusty, but
fall below SCA criteria later this morning through much of the day
(though occasional 20 kt gusts are possible on the rivers and near
the land/water interface on the bay where there will be better
mixing).

By tonight, another southerly surge is expected. Wind gusts
of 20-25 kt are expected across the Chesapeake Bay and northern
coastal waters. In addition, seas will build to 4-5 ft across the
northern coastal waters, especially out 20 nm. SCAs have been issued
for the northern coastal waters for tonight. SCAs will also be
needed for the Chesapeake Bay after the current advisories expire at
7 AM. A stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday evening into
Wednesday with widespread SCAs expected. Winds likely remain
elevated and gusty throughout the mid to late week timeframe with a
frontal boundary lingering near or just north of the local
waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ012-013-030.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/JKP
AVIATION...LKB/JKP
MARINE...AJB