Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

945
FXUS61 KAKQ 142332
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
732 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for the 00z TAFs. Otherwise no
significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler weather today into tonight as an upper trough moves
through the region.

2) A significant warming trend begins this weekend and last through
at least the middle of next week. Little to no rain chances are
anticipated throughout this timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler weather today into tonight as an upper trough
moves through the region. Pleasant weather on Friday.

An upper trough is moving through the area this afternoon which has
kicked off widespread cloud cover and even a few rain showers. A few
thunderstorms have even developed over portions of northeast North
Carolina this afternoon thanks to steep low level lapse rates and at
least some (~500 J/kg SBCAPE) instability. Any showers or isolated
storms come to an end over the next few hours as drier air continues
to filter into the region from the NW. Temperatures this afternoon
are running ~10-15 degrees below average with readings generally in
the mid 60s. Chilly tonight into Friday AM with lows dropping back
into the 40s for most inland locations. High pressure builds over
the area on Friday leading to plentiful sunshine and high
temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant warming trend begins this weekend and
last through at least the middle of next week. Little to no rain
chances are anticipated throughout this timeframe.

Significantly warmer, summer-like weather is on the way starting
this weekend. High pressure, which will be located over the region
on Friday, drifts offshore and becomes anchored near Bermuda.
Meanwhile, upper ridging develops over the Eastern CONUS later this
weekend into next week. Southerly flow will prevail over the region
allowing for a stretch of above average temperatures Saturday
through at least Wednesday. High temperatures start out in the mid
to potentially upper 80s on Saturday and climb into the upper 80s to
lower 90s on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday will see high
temperatures average in the lower to mid 90s (inland). Record highs
may also be challenged in some locations (particularly Richmond)
during this stretch. Little to no rain chances are anticipated area-
wide until at least Wednesday. A backdoor cold front attempts to
drop south into far northeast portions of the area later Sunday into
Sunday night. This front may bring at least the potential for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm to portions of the Maryland Eastern
Shore, though PoPs remain less than 20% at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z/15 TAF period.
All convection from earlier this afternoon has moved out of the
area, allowing VFR conditions across all terminals. Scattered
high clouds ~5000-7000 ft will continue overnight. NW winds will
be 5-10 kt, increasing after sunrise Friday morning with gusts
to 20 kt possible throughout the day Friday.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected Friday night through
Monday. There could be isolated SHRA/TSRA Sunday afternoon/evening
that would potentially lead to brief flight restrictions,
though potential is low at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
and tidal rivers of Eastern Virginia.

- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early
next week with primarily southerly winds.

An upper level trough is pivoting across the Mid-Atlantic coast this
afternoon. The wind is primarily N to NE 10-15kt with occasional
gusts to 20kt. Seas are 3-4ft with ~2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. A
minor surge of cold and dry advection is expected tonight into early
Friday morning as the upper trough moves offshore. The wind is
expected to increases to 15-20kt across the Ches. Bay and tidal
rivers, with gusts to ~25kt in the Ches. Bay. SCAs remain in effect
for the Ches. Bay and tidal rivers. Seas remain 3-4ft in the coastal
waters and build to 5-7ft in the offshore waters from 20-60nm, with
2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay. SCAs linger into Friday morning.
However, the wind should drop off sharply by Friday aftn as high
pressure builds across the coast.

High pressure gradually settles offshore this weekend and becomes
anchored off the Southeast coast early next week. Primarily sub-SCA
conditions are expected this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-
     634>637-639.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...AJZ