Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

476
FXUS61 KAKQ 240020
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
720 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Issued an SPS overnight for areas of black ice across the
  eastern shore.

-Light rain chances increase across the Northern Neck and an
 Eastern Shore Tuesday night. With much better rain chances CWA
 wide Thursday/Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lows fall into the 20s tonight. Any snow that has melted
will likely refreeze, resulting in areas of black ice. An SPS
has been issued for the eastern shore where a deeper snowpack
prevails.

2) A few showers are possible across the Northern Neck
and Eastern Shore late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with
widespread rain likely from Thursday through Friday.

3) Minor tidal flooding is possible at Ocean City
tonight, but tidal anomalies continue to fall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 715 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Lows fall into the 20s tonight. Any snow that has
melted will likely refreeze, resulting in areas of black ice. An SPS
has been issued for the eastern shore where a deeper snowpack
prevails.

The impressive coastal low that brought heavy snow and high winds to
the eastern shore is now off the southern New England coast, and
continues to move well away from the area. Temperatures are
still above freezing everywhere this evening given ongoing
mixing and a mostly cloudy sky. NW winds are still gusting to
20-25 mph, which may result in patchy blowing snow on the
eastern shore. However, with the heavy, wet nature of the snow
this shouldn`t be a big issue. All winter headlines have
expired. Skies gradually clear overnight, and winds diminish to
~10 mph most areas overnight. Wet surfaces (especially
secondary roads, bridges, and parking lots) will refreeze,
causing black ice. Have issued an SPS to highlight this for
locations that have a significant snowpack, including the entire
eastern shore.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A few showers are possible across the Northern Neck
and Eastern Shore late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with
widespread rain likely from Thursday through Friday.

A week shortwave will track far north of the local area Tuesday
night into Wednesday as sfc low pressure tracks across the Great
Lakes. A decent portion of the snow will melt on Tuesday given highs
above freezing, ample sunshine, and the late February sun angle.
Temps will rise into the mid 40s west of the bay. Can`t rule out a
light rain or snow shower Tuesday night/Wednesday (mainly N/NE) as
that system passes by to our north, but rain amounts will be a few
hundredths of an inch at most. Dry and mild on Wednesday. Then, our
next good chance for widespread precip (rain) arrives during the day
on Thursday as another low pressure system approaches from the WSW.
Widespread rain will likely continue through Thursday night before
exiting the area on Friday. Dew pts recover into the 50s, but not
expecting thunder with this system as any appreciable sfc-based
instability remains well to our south. Though confidence in
widespread rain is moderate to high. In fact, the ECMWF Ensemble
shows a 60-80% chance for a half inch of rain across southern VA and
NE NC from Thu-Fri (with the GFS Ensemble drier but showing decent
probs for at least 0.25").


KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor tidal flooding is possible at Ocean City
tonight, but tidal anomalies continue to fall.

NW winds have caused tidal anomalies to dramatically decrease across
many of the coastal stations today. One exception is at Ocean City
where anomalies have remained about 2-2.5 ft above astronomical tide.
This anomaly may stay until the midnight high tide at Ocean City
leading to brief minor tidal flooding. However, confidence is not
high enough to issue a coastal flood advisory.

As the winds decrease tonight, the tidal anomalies may rise at other
locations. However, it will be tough to reach minor flood at any
other location with tonight`s high tide and have opted to lower all
other sites to below minor flood.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions prevail across the region this evening, but the
sky is still mostly cloudy w/ CIGs mostly in the 6-8k ft range.
NW winds will continue to gust to ~20 kt through 06Z, before
dropping off to ~10 kt thereafter. Expect the sky to become
partly cloudy to mostly clear to overnight and through Tuesday.
WNW winds will again become gusty at SBY between 12-15Z, but
will tend to remain in the 10-15 kt range elsewhere, while
shifting to the W in the aftn.


Outlook: Increasing clouds Tue night/Wed, but prevailing VFR
conditions are expected to persist through at least Wednesday
night. Flight restrictions are likely in rain and low clouds
Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 715 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Winds gradually subside through Tuesday. All gale warnings
  have ended, now with small craft advisories through Tuesday.

- Low pressure over the Great Lakes will allow a warm front to move
north of the area on Tue night/Wed. This will allow SW winds to
increase to 15 to 25 kt with small craft advisory conditions again
possible.

- A cold front passes through the waters on Thursday which will
allow the winds to turn northerly while briefly increasing to near
20 kt before diminishing for the weekend.

NW winds are slowly subsiding across the area as the cyclone off of
New England continues to track NE. Otherwise, with the pressure
gradient just gradually relaxing through tomorrow, will keep
Small Craft Advisories out for all waters through 4pm tomorrow
before the ridge axis moves over the area by Tue evening.

There will be a brief lull of winds as this ridge axis moves over
late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. However, winds will
quickly turn SW and increase to 15-25 kt by late Tue night or Wed
morning as strong low pressure moves over the Great Lakes. The cold
front passes across the waters Thu allowing winds to briefly turn NE
with possible marginal small craft advisory conditions. Winds
diminish for the weekend with 15 kt or less through Sunday under
high pressure.
Minor tidal flooding is possible at Ocean City
tonight, but tidal anomalies continue to fall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>638-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB/MRD
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...MRD