Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

526
FXUS61 KAKQ 251739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1239 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Probabilities for some wintry weather early next week have
increased some, though confidence is very low in precipitation
type, timing, and impacts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A period of light rain or sprinkles is possible through this
morning, with some wet snow potentially mixing in across the
northern tier of the area. Milder weather is expected for this
afternoon.

2) A stronger system impacts the area late tonight into Friday,
bringing a more widespread rain. Highest rainfall amounts are
expected across the southern half of the area.

3) Milder weather is expected this weekend. Watching the potential
for a winter weather system early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A period of light rain or sprinkles is possible
through this morning, with some wet snow potentially mixing in
across the northern tier of the area. Milder weather is expected for
this afternoon.

Early this morning, ~990mb low pressure is located over Ontario with
a weak frontal system draped just to the south over the Great Lakes
region. As this system passes north of the area a period of light
rain/sprinkles and/or light snow/flurries is possible this morning,
especially over northeastern portions of the area (Northern Neck and
Eastern Shore). Looking at latest observations and model soundings,
there is a decent amount of dry air at the surface with dewpoint
depressions of ~15F over much of the area (5-10F Eastern Shore),
thus any precipitation will likely have a hard time making it to the
surface despite the radar showing more coverage. Any precipitation
chances come to an end by mid to late morning, with gradually
clearing skies and mild temperatures for this afternoon with
increasing SW flow. High temps range from the mid-upper 50s and
cannot completely rule out 60 F in S/SE VA. Temps on the Eastern
Shore will struggle to get much warmer than the lower 50s due to the
flow off the Chesapeake Bay. Mid and high level clouds will increase
again later this evening and especially overnight as a stronger
system approaches from the W/WSW. Lows tonight will range from the
mid-upper 30s across far NE portions of the area (where there is
snow cover) to the mid-upper 40s across the southern half of the
area.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger system impacts the area late tonight into
Friday, bringing a more widespread rain. Highest rainfall amounts
are expected across the southern half of the area.

A more widespread rainfall is expected late tonight through Thursday
and into Friday as a wave of low pressure slides across the area
from the W/WSW. An associated W-E frontal boundary will also be
draped across the area, focusing and enhancing the rain for most of
the day. 00z model guidance favors the southern half of the area of
the area with the highest rain amounts with this system, with some
locations closer to the Albemarle Sound potentially seeing 1.00".
QPF will average ~0.50" through central portions of the forecast
area and ~0.25" across the north. There will likely be a decent
north/south temperature gradient over the area Thursday afternoon
with the frontal boundary draped across the region. Far southern
portions of the area will see high temperatures in the upper 50s to
around 60, while northern, and especially northeastern portions of
the area will likely remain in the 40s. The majority of the rain
comes to an end Friday morning as the front drops south of the area,
though a few rain showers likely linger across far southeastern
portions of the area through Friday afternoon. High
temperatures on Friday will range from the low 50s inland to the
mid to upper 40s closer to the coast.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Milder weather is expected this weekend. Watching
the potential for a winter weather system early next week.

Milder weather returns for Saturday as high pressure builds over the
area and drifts off the coast. Clouds and a low-end threat for a few
rain showers may linger through Saturday across the far southeast as
a coastal trough lingers. Forecast highs Saturday are in the low to
mid 60s inland with mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Mild
conditions continues into Sunday, though the 25/00z suite of model
guidance continues to highlight a backdoor cold front dropping SW
during the day. This would keep a good chunk of area much cooler
than the current forecast shows. Narrowing down the exact placement
of this feature at this lead time is very challenging, so keep a
close eye on the forecast as significant changes to the temperatures
are possible.

The pattern still looks to become more unsettled as we head into
early next week with additional chances for either rain or wintry
weather possible. The current consensus is for sfc high pressure to
situate NE of the area, with a wedge of cooler air in place across
the Mid-Atlantic. Most of the deterministic and ensemble guidance
depict a series of shortwaves moving through in the progressive flow
aloft, potentially bringing additional precipitation to the area.
Precip type will be heavily dependent on the depth of cold air in
place and the exact track of these systems. Regardless, there is at
least some threat for additional wintry wx during this timeframe.
Snow or even freezing rain may be possible over portions of the area
depending on the depth of the cold air. There is still much to work
out but it`s again worth keeping an eye on the evolving forecast
over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EST Wednesday...

Most of the region remains enveloped in BKN-OVC mid-level cloud
cover this afternoon. Satellite trends suggests some of these
should clear over the next few hours but still expect at least
SCT sky cover for the rest of today. Winds this afternoon are
10-20 kt at most sites, with occasional gusts over 20 kt. Winds
decrease some this evening but could briefly increase again
overnight. A short period of LLWS is also expected for most
terminals from ~00z-06z (except RIC). Another system approaches
tonight, bringing the potential for rain by later Thu morning
and likely flight restrictions. CIGs will gradually lower and
thicken again during this time, with MVFR CIGs possible by 12z
Thu and IFR CIGs by 14-16z Thu. Reduced VSBY from rain is also
likely, potentially below 3 SM.

Outlook: Gradually drying out with mainly VFR prevailing Friday
into the weekend. High pressure builds down into the region
Sunday into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These
are likely to bring additional precip for the beginning of next
week and potential flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Southwest winds of to 15 to 25 kt expected across a majority of
the local waters today, and SCAs remain in effect through the
evening.

- A cold front passes through the waters on Thursday which will
allow the winds to turn northerly while briefly increasing to 15 kt
before diminishing for the weekend.

High pressure extends from the western North Atlantic across the
Florida peninsula this morning, while a strong area of low pressure
(~989 mb) moves across the upper Great Lakes region. After yesterday
evening`s brief lull in winds and subsequent drop in seas, winds
have started to come back up as the gradient tightens between the
two aforementioned features. Marine-based observation sites are
currently measuring sustained winds between 15-20 kts, and gusts of
20-25 kts across the local waters, with the rivers observing 10-15
kts with gusts to 20 kts. With flow shifting to the SW, waves and
seas have dropped down to 1 to 2 ft and 2 to 4 ft, respectively.

The low pressure system will continue to move across Ontario and
into Quebec today, which will keep winds elevated through the
afternoon/evening and SCAs remain in effect until then. With seas
having subsided a little more than anticipated already and the
offshore flow expected today, they will likely struggle to reach
their full potential, so have dropped them slightly for today. The
cold front associated with the low pressure system will move across
the area on Thursday, causing winds to briefly turns to the
northeast and increase slightly, though SCA conditions are looking
less favorable at this time on Thursday night. High pressure will
build across the area this weekend, leading to a period of
diminishing winds (15 kt or less) through Sunday night. A possible
backdoor cold front may move through the area on Sunday night and
bring another round of SCA conditions to the local waters by early
next week.&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ632-
     634-638-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this
     afternoon for ANZ633-636-637.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631-633-635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ632-
     634-638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...NB