Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KAKQ 292345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
745 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Chances for heavy rainfall this afternoon continue to trend
  farther south, with the highest chances focused across interior
  NE NC.

- High confidence in a strong late summer heat wave building
  into the area starting early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread clouds and onshore flow keep temps down this
afternoon. Showers and a few storms remain possible, mainly in
northeastern NC this afternoon.

2) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next
week with increasing chances for showers and storms by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread clouds and onshore flow keep temps down
this afternoon. Showers and a few storms remain possible, mainly in
northeastern NC this afternoon.

High pressure is building into the region from the north this
afternoon. The slow-moving front has continued to drift south today
and is currently in the vicinity of the Albemarle Sound and northern
OBX. Post-frontal NE winds off the water and low stratus clouds have
kept temperatures in the upper 70s to the low/mid 80s across the
region this afternoon. A few showers have developed across the
southern half of the area but have been very short-lived. The deeper
moisture and higher potential for showers and storms continues to be
focused near and south of the VA/NC border and especially near the
Albemarle Sound. Locally heavy rainfall is possible adjacent to the
Albemarle Sound through early evening but the latest guidance
largely keeps the heavier precip south of the area. PoPs decrease
rapidly toward sunset. Areas of fog and low stratus are possible
tonight with low temps mainly in the mid and upper 60s.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle
portion of next week with increasing chances for showers and storms
by late week.

High pressure centers offshore Sunday, forcing the remnants of
the boundary well south of the local area. Outside of an
isolated shower or storm, mostly dry weather and partly sunny
skies are expected across the area. Highs on Sunday warm into
the upper 80s to around 90.

A strong 500mb upper level ridge expands eastward over the Ohio
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic early next week. Warm advection and
deep mixing will allow for temperatures to rise into the low to mid
90s on Monday. The ridge peaks in strength Tuesday into Wednesday
before flattening later in the weak. Tuesday through Thursday will
see high temperatures likely in the mid to even upper 90s for many
inland locations. Max heat indices through the period should
generally average 100-104 due to deep mixing keeping dewpoints in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. However, if dewpoints overperform, a
Heat Advisory may be needed across portions of southeast Virginia
and northeast North Carolina.

Convective chances remain capped near climatological minimums
(15-20% or less) through Wednesday due to strong mid level
subsidence. A broad upper trough and associated cold front
approach from the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday, bringing the
next meaningful opportunity for showers and thunderstorms along
with more seasonable temperatures. AI/machine learning tools
continue to hint at the possibility for severe weather Thursday
into Friday as the front approaches the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Saturday...

 NE/onshore flow continues to result in MVFR CIGs early this
evening across ORF and PHF. These CIGS are not expected to last
the entire period but could persist for the next couple of
hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions persist elsewhere through the
period with light and variable winds. Guidance suggests MVFR to
IFR stratus and patchy fog are possible late tonight into early
Sunday. Confidence is high for these conditions everywhere but
ECG at this time. These conditions are expected to improve by
tomorrow morning where VFR and dry conditions are expected.

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions Sunday through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions continue through the weekend
  and into next week.

A weak stationary front lingers just south of the local waters this
afternoon. Winds are currently out of the ENE around 10 kt, down
from this morning`s surge where observed 10-15 kt with gusts to 18
kt was observed in the lower Ches. Bay and lower James River. This
afternoon and evening, winds will continue decreasing, settling
around 5 kt overnight and shifting out of the E. High pressure will
shift northeast of the area Sunday allowing the weak front to push
north through the area, causing winds to become more southerly
Sunday evening into early next week. Sub-SCA conditions will
continue through the week.

Seas are generally around 3 ft with 1-2 ft waves (highest in the
lower Ches. Bay) and will remain 2-3 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves
through the forecast period.

A moderate rip current risk remains in effect for the northern
beaches today with a low risk for the southern beaches. A low risk
is expected for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/RHR
AVIATION...HET/RHR
MARINE...KMC