Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KAKQ 252328
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
728 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Removed thunder mention for far NE portions of the Forecast
Area for tonight.

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms increase in coverage late this afternoon
and especially this evening, pushing eastward to the coast
overnight into early Sunday morning. Low pressure offshore then
allows for cool and dreary conditions Sunday, with lingering
rain along the coast. Drying out and becoming milder Monday.

2) There are multiple opportunities for additional rainfall
next week with temperatures near to below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms increase in coverage late
this afternoon and especially this evening, pushing eastward to
the coast overnight into early Sunday morning. Low pressure
offshore then allows for cool and dreary conditions Sunday, with
lingering rain along the coast. Drying out and becoming milder
Monday.

A frontal boundary has become nearly stationary from the central
Appalachians southward into southern VA this aftn, with cool
high pressure situated along the southern New England coast. A
cool ENE flow prevails north of the boundary, with a much warmer
southerly flow to the south. Temperatures show a large gradient,
ranging from the 50s on the MD eastern shore, to the 80s in
most of far southern VA and NE NC. Showers with embedded tstms
are ongoing across the mountains, and will begin to push into
the local area over the next 1-2 hrs. We are not outlooked by
SPC for any severe tstms, but with steep low level lapse rates
(~9C/km) to the south of the boundary, along with DCAPE values
of 500-100 J/Kg there could be an isolated stronger storm with
wind gusts to ~40-50 mph. Based on model soundings and the current
obs, the best storm potential is south of the I-64 corridor, probably
in the vicinity of the US 460 corridor. One more thing to watch
for will be locally enhanced low-level shear with the front in
place and the approaching low feature across southern VA. This
is highly conditional, and the CAMs have generally backed off
with respect to any supercells riding along the the boundary
into this evening. Have removed the mention of any tstms on the
eastern shore given the very cool/stable conditions there.
Showers move eastward to the coast this later this evening and
tonight, with the storm threat diminishing with the loss of
heating. Aerial QPF should average between 0.25" and 0.50", though
locally higher amounts of 1"+ are possible in areas that see
several rounds of convective activity. While beneficial, this is
unlikely to make a meaningful dent in the ongoing drought conditions.

The front and low pressure system move offshore Sunday. However,
the sfc low will slow down and modestly deepen as a cutoff low
develops aloft. This will allow sfc high pressure to reinforce
and strengthen to our N. Therefore, expect a cool, dreary, and
potentially wet day Sunday with a cold air damming setup. The
highest PoPs are along the coast of SE VA and NE NC. A tightened
pressure gradient will also allow for breezy conditions along
the immediate coat. Have continued to undercut the NBM (which
struggles in CAD), with highs staying in the 50s for most of the
region, with some lower 60s in NE NC and south central VA. Depending
on the exact configuration of the sfc pattern, particularly where
the low resides, Monday could also end up being cooler than shown
in the forecast, at least along the coast. Latest models show the
push of dry air from the north looks strong enough to lead to a
mostly sunny sky, with the exception of the immediate coast Monday
morning. Overall, expect highs to range from the lower 70s in the
piedmont to the lower 60s at the immediate coast.


KEY MESSAGE 2...There are multiple opportunities for additional
rainfall next week with temperatures near to below normal.

A strong upper level trough/low will be in place across central
Canada Tue-Wed, eventually dropping SE towards the Great Lakes
and New England late in the week. At the surface, low pressure
passing through the upper midwest will bring a frontal boundary
through the area Tuesday, possible leading to a few showers. At
this time, PoPs are 30-50%, but rainfall amounts look light as
moisture is fairly limited. A potentially more substantial slug
of moisture is expected late Wednesday, and PoPs from the NBM
are now 70-80% with this feature. Specifics beyond this time
are uncertain but chance PoPs are in place again Fri-Sat.
Temperatures generally will be near to a little cooler than
average for mid- late Spring with variable cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...

Conditions will continue to deteriorate at all terminals over the
next few hours as a front brings rain with a few embedded
thunderstorms to the area. In the wake of the initial storms, light
to moderate rain and lowering CIGS are expected, with IFR CIGs
expected overnight through tomorrow morning at all sites. Rain will
start to taper off from west to east starting tomorrow morning
through tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be gusty within any
thunderstorms that move through, then will becoming generally light
overnight. NNE winds will then start to ramp up tomorrow morning,
with gusts of 20-25 kt, with occasional gusts to 25-30 kt especially
closer to the coast. CIGs may improve to low end MVFR by the
afternoon with moist onshore flow, but will remain marginal IFR
through most of the afternoon and into the evening.

Outlook: Model trends have been for lingering clouds near the
coast Monday, which could lead to continued flight restrictions.
Inland locations should dry out with primarily VFR conditions
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

 - Solid SCA conditions expected late tonight through Monday
evening, as low pressure deepens offshore. Gusts to Gale Force are
expected over the coastal waters Sunday into Sunday night. Gale
Warnings have been issued for all coastal waters  north of the VA/NC
border from Sunday morning through Sunday   evening.

- Nuisance to low-end minor coastal flooding is possible for
communities along the lower Chesapeake Bay and tidal VA  Rivers. Up
to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is  possible.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a weak surface low over the
southern VA and northern NC. The pressure gradient has tighten
across the northern half of the  coastal waters ahead of a Quasi-
stationary boundary. This is leading to sold SCA conditions across
the coastal waters north of the Capes and the middle and upper bay.
Winds across these zones remain out of the east between 15 to 20 kt
with gusts upwards of 25-30kt. With the modest onshore flow this has
lead to waves upwards of 3 to 4 ft across the bay zones and 5-7ft
across the ocean with 6 ft seas bashing the beaches based off
cameras and buoy observations. While to the south the pressure
gradient south of the boundary remains weak and winds are out of the
SSE around 10kt with gusts upwards 15 kt. Waves are also lower with
2-3 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean.

Through tonight into tomorrow morning the boundary will lift north
as the low pressure system begins to move offshore. Winds across the
north will remain out of the east with winds upwards of 20 kt with
gusts upwards of 25-30kt. While across the south winds will be
between 10-15kt but winds will shift out of the SW. During tonight,
there will be a 1-3 hr period where the winds lower below SCA
criteria as the low moves over the coastal waters. However, seas
across the northern ocean will remain between 5-7ft while across the
bay they will be 2-3ft. By the early morning hours tomorrow, the
low will deepen offshore and its cold front will push through the
area bringing SCA conditions at first across all waters and by mid
to late morning Gale conditions across the coastal waters north of
the VA/NC border. SCA have been issued for the bay, rivers, sound
and coastal waters for  N winds between 20-25kt with gusts upwards of
30kt. Will also note, a short fused SCA has been issued for the
coastal zone north of the VA/NC border and south of the Capes due
the Gale force winds coming in later. Confidence in Gale conditions
across the coastal waters north of the VA/NC border have increased
and the Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings. Winds will
be out of the N between 25-30kt with gusts upwards of 35-40 kt
(highest gusts well offshore). In addition to the winds, seas will
rapidly increase with 4-5ft across the bay and 6-8ft across the
ocean with 9-11ft well offshore. The SCA conditions are expected to
be prolonged and last through all of SUnday into Monday while the
Gales will drop off Sunday night. However, once the Gale warnings
are dropped they will be replaced with SCA.

Winds will begin to decrease Monday night into Tuesday and that
looks to be the timeframe where SCA for the bays maybe able to be
dropped. While across the ocean seas will continue to remain
elevated with seas remaining greater than 5ft. Will note, by the
middle of next week models have hinted on an additional low pressure
system that could potentially bring elevated marine conditions once
again across the local waters.


Coastal Flooding....

In regards to the coastal flooding potential, tidal anomalies of 0.5
to 1 ft above normal steadily increase late tomorrow into Monday,
due to strong high pressure building to the north and deepening low
pressure exiting NE offshore of the Eastern Shore. The tightening
pressure gradient will bring an increasingly strong NNE flow
tomorrow afternoon into Monday morning wave action/increasing seas
(due to both wind waves and swell). Tidal sites in the lower
Chesapeake Bay, lower James River will have the best chance for
minor tidal flooding impacts with the Sunday night/early Monday
morning high tide cycle, with tides remaining elevated into early
Tuesday. It is certainly possible that a localized round or two of
coastal flood Advisories could be needed for areas in the lower
bay/tidal James Sunday afternoon/evening. Will continue to monitor
trends over the next 12-24 hours.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ632-634>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ633-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-680-
     682.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ654.
     Gale Warning from noon to 11 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ654-656-684-
     686.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to noon EDT Sunday for ANZ656.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/SW
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...HET/MAM