Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

858
FXUS61 KAKQ 050813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
313 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Very little to no snowfall is expected across southern VA and NE
NC through 7 AM. No major changes to the forecast, with a very
light (<0.5") accumulation of snow possible late Friday into
Friday night. Winds have been increased slightly on Saturday,
and it appears that wind headlines are possible along and east
of I-95, with the highest confidence near the coast and on the
eastern shore.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A light rain/snow/sleet mix is possible in NE NC through 7 AM,
with light snow showers across S and SE VA. Accumulations will be a
few tenths of an inch at most.

2) A clipper system may bring light snow to parts of the area late
Friday/Friday night, with high confidence in another influx of
Arctic air and well below normal temperatures this weekend.

3) Warmer temperatures, likely going a little above normal for the
1st time in nearly 15 days, are expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 150 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A light rain/snow/sleet mix is possible in NE NC
through 7 AM, with light snow showers across S and SE VA.
Accumulations will be a few tenths of an inch at best.

Latest analysis indicates weak sfc low pressure moving offshore of
the Carolina coast with a positively tilted upper trough lagging
behind the sfc low. The steadier precip is across central and
eastern NC at this hour, and could move back into NE NC for a few
hrs between now and sunrise. This could bring a period of light
rain/sleet/snow...but not expecting much of any accums. Farther
north, snow showers associated with the mid level circulation/lift
continue to track across the Piedmont but are struggling to hold
together as they move east. Given the dry low-levels, precip is not
reaching the ground north of Mecklenburg/Brunswick/Greensville
Counties. So while radar shows precip approaching the RIC Metro, am
not expecting more than a few flurries to make it to the ground.
Otherwise, cold and dry weather prevails during the day today with
highs in the 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A clipper system may bring light snow to parts of
the area late Friday/Friday night, with high confidence in another
influx of Arctic air and well below normal temperatures this weekend.

Another deep trough aloft is progged to amplify and drop SE from the
Hudson Bay Friday. A clipper system crosses the area Friday
afternoon through Friday night, potentially bringing a period of
light snow to the area. Temps will rise well above freezing (upper
30s-around 40F) prior to the onset of the precip on Friday. However,
once the lowest levels saturate, temps drop to 32-34F and precip
should be in the form of snow along and north of I-64. Rain or a
rain/snow mix is expected farther south. Additionally, precip
intensity will be light, so even if it does snow for a few hrs, not
expecting any travel impacts given temps aoa freezing. The track of
the shortwave still suggests that the best chances will be north of
I-64 (and especially across the northern Neck and eastern shore.
Global ensembles have a mean of a few tenths of an inch, with no
higher than 10-20% probs for 1" across far northern portions of the
area. While it likely won`t snow everywhere on Friday, there is high
confidence that the clipper system will usher in a reinforcing shot
of very cold air. This will result in another cold (though mainly
dry) weekend with temperatures well below normal. In addition,
breezy to windy conditions are expected Saturday, with Wind
Advisories possible for areas along and east of I-95, with the
highest gusts (50+ mph) expected on the eastern shore (where High
Wind headlines can`t completely be ruled out). While much colder
than normal area-wide, the setup will really favor the coldest
conditions over the NE with highs only in the 20s Sat-Sun, as south
central VA and interior NE NC see highs into the mid 30s. Lows drop
into the teens (potentially upper single digits north) Saturday
night with breezy conditions continuing (especially near the coast).
Wind chill values Sat night will likely be worthy of Cold WX
headlines over the NE and near the bay/coast but will tend to be
more marginal and uncertain elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer temperatures, likely going a little above
normal for the 1st time in nearly 15 days, are expected next week.

After another very cold weekend, and what has been a significant
cold stretch since the last 8 days of January, the upper level
pattern finally appears to show a bit of an upper level ridge
expanding north from the Gulf into the SE CONUS Tue-Wed.
Temperatures well into the 50s, and possibly even warmer, are
expected at least for much of VA and NE NC (while staying cooler on
the eastern shore). This should allow for significant melting of any
remaining snow/ice pack.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 AM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail for all sites except ECG early this
morning. Snow was not as widespread as expected last evening
across the SE. There are still a few snow showers west and
southwest of the terminals in the VA Piedmont, but these have
been weakening as they move east. There is also an area of
precip in central/eastern NC that may impact ECG during the next
few hours. So, no mention of -SN in the TAFs (except for ECG
from 07-11z) at this time. CIGs gradually improve this morning,
with VFR returning to ORF by 09z and and ECG by 14z. VFR
conditions are then expected for the remainder of the period.

Outlook: VFR continues into Friday morning. A strong cold front
crosses the region late Friday into Friday night, bringing the
potential for additional rain or snow showers and potential sub-
VFR conditions. Gusty winds are likely behind the front this
weekend, remaining strong into Sat night (highest at SBY).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake
  Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters
  south of Parramore Island today.

- Confidence continues to increase in the potential for strong
  gale conditions or low-end storm conditions from late Friday
  night through Saturday night behind a strong cold front. A
  Gale Watch remains in effect for all local waters for this
  surge.

- Heavy Freezing Spray Watches have been issued for the
  Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light
  from Saturday morning into Sunday morning.

Latest surface analysis depicted a cold front south of the local
waters with a surface low along the front in SC. This surface low is
expected to move east and offshore later this morning, gradually
strengthening while offshore later today. Winds early this morning
were N/NNE 10-15 kt across the middle Ches Bay and northern coastal
waters and 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the lower bay,
lower James River, Currituck Sound, and southern coastal waters
south of Parramore Island. Additionally, seas were 4-6 ft across the
southern coastal waters. As such, SCAs are now in effect across
portions of the middle and lower Ches Bay, the Lower James River,
the Currituck Sound, and the coastal waters south of Cape Charles
Light. Recent trends have been for weaker CAA and therefore lower
winds, particularly across the middle bay and northern coastal
waters. As such, confidence has decreased in these areas reaching
SCA criteria conditions. However, will maintain SCAs beginning at 7
AM for the remainder of the middle bay as well as the coastal waters
between Parramore Island and Cape Charles Light in case winds and/or
seas overperform. Otherwise, still expect winds to diminish this
evening into tonight from north to south as the low pulls moves
farther offshore.

A lull in the winds is expected from late tonight into early Fri
night before a strong cold front crosses the local waters Fri night.
Strong CAA is expected behind this front with NW winds quickly
increasing to 30-40 kt with gusts up to 45 kt (potentially higher).
Wind probs for sustained 34 kt winds were 80-100% across the Ches
Bay and coastal waters with probs for 43 kt gusts generally 80-100%
across the coastal waters and 60-80% across the Ches Bay.
Additionally, probs for 48 kt gusts were 40-80% across the coastal
waters (highest across the coastal waters north of the VA/NC border)
and less than 40% across the Ches Bay. As such, confidence is high
in strong gale conditions from late Fri night through Sat night with
low confidence in storm-force gusts in the Ches Bay and moderate
confidence in storm-force gusts across the coastal waters. Will note
that the deterministic models continue to show strong sustained
winds with 35-40 kt winds on the EURO, ~40 kt winds on the NAM, and
40-50 kt winds on the GFS. The GFS continues to show the strongest
winds given winds of 55-60 kt at 925mb. If models continue to trend
stronger with winds as we get closer, will need to increase winds to
storm-force (for gusts). However, after collaboration with
neighboring offices, have opted to keep winds at high-end gale for
now and see how things trend as we get closer.

Given the strong winds and cold temps, moderate to heavy freezing
spray is also likely Sat and Sun. As such, Heavy Freezing Spray
Watches have been issued from 6 AM Sat through 10 AM Sun for the
Ches Bay and coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light. While the
watch ends on Sun morning, light to moderate freezing spray will
continue to be possible through the day Sun. Will also note that
light to moderate freezing spray is possible across the upper
rivers, Currituck Sound, and southern coastal waters as well, with
Freezing Spray Advisories likely as we get closer. Additionally,
given the strong winds, waves and seas are expected to build to 5-8
ft and 6-11 ft respectively this weekend. Otherwise, given the
strong NW winds this weekend, another period of low water levels
appears likely for the Currituck Sound.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ630.
     Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from Saturday morning through
     Sunday morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ631-
     632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ633.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night
     for ANZ633-635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM