Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS61 KAKQ 171730
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1230 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Precipitation (and snowfall) amounts have slightly increased
for Sunday, though uncertainty remains given marginal
temperature conditions which could limit accumulations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Milder temperatures make a brief return today, especially across
southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. There remains a
chance for light rain or a rain/snow mix this morning across
northern portions of our area.

2) Snow or a mix of rain and snow remains possible Sunday, with
mainly rain expected for southeast Virginia and northeast North
Carolina where a few wet snowflakes could mix in as precipitation
ends late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening. The best chance
for any (light) snowfall accumulation remains from central Virginia
into the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore.

3) A strong push of Arctic air arrives for early next week, with
below normal temperatures to continue through the first half of next
week. Tuesday is expected to be the coldest day, with single digit
wind chills possible Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 550 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Milder temperatures (mid 30s) are present over the
area this morning with light southerly flow and modest warm
advection. Mid-level cloud cover increases over the next several
hours as a shortwave trough lifts through the OH Valley. Some light
precipitation is also expected for northern portions of our forecast
area through this early afternoon as an associated (weak) cold front
lifts NE. Thermal profiles from the hi-res guidance suggest some
snow or sleet could mix in with the rain across the far northern
tier of the AKQ CWA, mainly from Louisa to Caroline to Dorchester
County MD. This would be very brief and generally confined to the
morning hours. No accumulation is expected. Otherwise, temps today
will be milder, especially for SE VA and NE NC. Highs range from the
upper 40s W/NW to 50s E/SE. Lower 60s are even possible for far SE
VA and NE NC.

The first part of tonight will likely remain mostly dry as the
initial shortwave lifts NE through interior New England and a
vigorous upper trough digs into the Deep South. Lows range through
the 30s to lower 40s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...The upper trough pushes E Saturday night into Sunday
with low pressure developing off the Carolina coast and tracking NE
Sunday. A period of snow continues to look likely Sunday,
particularly for interior portions of NE NC and southern VA into
central VA, the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck, and Eastern
Shore. Uncertainty is higher across SE VA and NE NC due to
conflicting model guidance and generally warmer temps. Still, a
transition to snow is expected at the very least by the evening and
early overnight periods for these areas.

Most data continues to suggest this will not be a major or impactful
snow event. However, there unfortunately remains quite the large
spread in potential outcomes across the model guidance. The NW trend
seen in the QPF field by the previous forecaster has generally
continued with the latest 00z model suite. Both the EPS and GEFS
have also increased probs for 1" and 3" and they are notably higher
than the yesterday`s 12z guidance. The placement of the higher probs
shows significant variance between these two modeling systems,
however. The EPS places the higher probs across coastal locations
and the Eastern Shore; oppositely, the GEFS is displaced further N
and E with near-zero probs in NE NC. The deterministic models also
trended higher with snow totals, particularly the 00z GFS, with
shorter-range guidance, such as the high-res NAM and regional CMC,
also trending upward. The NBM, which generally runs a model cycle or
two behind, is in closer agreement to the GEFS scenario, but is not
nearly as high as the deterministic GFS solution. Regardless,
surface temperatures still appear to be marginal and heavily
dependent on wet bulb and column-cooling effects (vs precip moving
into a cold antecedent airmass). Most models show temps near to
slightly above 32F when snow is falling, and coupled with poor
ascent in the DGZ (particularly NW) and warmer ground temps,
suggests snow may have trouble accumulating. Would expect any
accums to be mostly confined to grassy and elevated surfaces
and not roadways. For now, the current official forecast is for
1.0-1.5" of snow over the Eastern Shore, with a few tenths to
less than 1" for the Piedmont, central VA, and SE VA, and no
accumulation expected for those near the Albemarle Sound. A
reasonable worst case scenario would be 2-3" for the MD Eastern
Shore, and 1-2" back through most of central/eastern VA and NE
NC. However, as we`ve seen with the 00z guidance, adjustments to
the official forecast may by needed over the next few updates.
Colder and drier air arrives from NW- SE later Sunday evening
bringing a rapid end to the snow or rain/snow mix. Will also
have to monitor for any freezing of a residual wet/slushy
surfaces overnight Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A strong push of Arctic air arrives for early
next week behind a secondary dry cold front, with below averages
temperatures to continue through the first half of next week.

Arctic air arrives Monday night behind the secondary cold front.
Frigid temperatures are expected for at least the first half of next
week, with the coldest air occurring Monday night, Tuesday, and into
early Wednesday morning. EPS/GEFS show 2m temperature anomalies 15F
to nearly 20F degrees below average. Overnight lows in the upper
teens to mid 20s are expected Sunday night, and primarily teens
Monday/Tuesday night. Cold Weather Advisories are possible Mon night
given forecast wind chills in the single digits across the N and W.
While day-time temps will be rather chilly each day Monday through
Wednesday, Tuesday is forecast to be the coldest day with highs
struggling to make it above freezing.

Temperatures may attempt to moderate a bit by the middle and end of
the week as the upper flow turns more zonal. Low-end precip chances
also return by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue through most of tonight
with BKN-OVC VFR CIGs ahead of our next system. Rain moves in
late tonight-Sunday AM with CIGs dropping to MVFR by 10-14z.
VSBYs in the rain will vary between 2-5SM. The rain likely
changes to snow at RIC/SBY during the aftn, with light to
occasionally moderate snow (1/2-2SM VSBYs) possible for a few
hrs during the aftn. The most likely timing for snow at RIC/SBY
is 18-00z. Could see a couple hours worth of -SN with IFR VSBYs
at PHF/ORF between 20-00z, with mainly rain at ECG. CIGs drop to
IFR/LIFR by late morning-midday on Sun. Winds remain SW 10-15
kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt this afternoon, diminishing this
evening into tonight. Winds become N-NW at 5-10 kt on Sunday (no
significant wind is expected with the precip).

Outlook: Improving conditions are expected Sunday night into
Monday morning with VFR for the first half of the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay,
  lower James River, and northern coastal waters this morning.

- Benign, sub-SCA conditions are expected this afternoon through
  the daylight hours of Monday, with another round of SCAs
  possible Monday night into Tuesday.

Early this morning, low pressure (~993 mb) is centered over the
Great Lakes with a cold front extending south, roughly just west of
the Appalachian mountains. Meanwhile, high pressure (~1025 mb) is
centered over northern Florida and will continue to drift east this
morning. SW winds have increased this morning (due to a tightening
pressure gradient), with wind speeds averaging 5 to 20 knots and
gusts ~25 knots. The pressure gradient begins to slacken as we
approach sunrise, with winds gradually diminishing through this
morning and eventually falling below SCA criteria by mid to late
morning. SCAs remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James
River, and coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light. Due to the
increasing winds, seas have built to 3 to 5 feet (locally 6 feet out
20 nm off the MD Eastern Shore) and waves in the Chesapeake Bay have
built to 3 to 4 feet. Sub-SCA conditions return this afternoon and
are expected to persist through Sunday and the daylight hours of
Monday before another cold front crosses the waters and brings the
potential for SCA conditions back to the area Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/SW
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB