Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

504
FXUS61 KAKQ 021140
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
640 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion.

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather continues into the middle of this week with a gradual
warming trend.

2) A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but confidence
in widespread beneficial rainfall remains low, though most areas
likely see at least 0.10" of rain. Above average temperatures are
also expected to continue through at least the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues into the middle of this week
with a gradual warming trend.

A well-defined area of high pressure is still just off the NJ coast
early this morning, with sfc ridging extending SSW into the
local area. As a result, there is a very weak pressure gradient
and light/calm winds at this hour. A weak shortwave aloft over
the central Appalachians continues to slowly move toward the
local area. High clouds have overspread much of VA/NC in advance
of this feature. Temperatures are in the upper 30s-40s and will
not fall much more overnight due to the cloud cover. Radar
mosaic shows some light echoes over SE WV and SW VA, with some
sites in SW VA reporting light rain at this hour. Clouds
increase today as that shortwave weakens as it approaches and
crosses the area. Highs will be only in the mid to upper 60s due
to the clouds. There is a very low but nonzero chance of light
rain in the Piedmont later this morning- midday but rain amounts
would only be a few hundredths of an inch at best. Temps may
struggle to get out of the lower 60s across western portions of
the FA if we manage to see some very light rain.

A pronounced warming trend takes place on Tuesday/Wednesday as a
building ridge aloft moves over the area while the surface high
moves farther offshore. With the low-level flow becoming SE, lower
to mid 70s are expected on Tuesday with mid to upper 70s on
Wednesday.  Depending on cloud cover, 80F readings are across
portions of interior srn VA and NE NC Wednesday. Overnight lows also
gradually moderate from the 40s tonight to around 60F Wednesday
night.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday,
but confidence in widespread beneficial rainfall remains low, though
most areas likely see at least 0.10" of rain. Above average
temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the
end of the week.

A strong low pressure system at the surface and aloft will initially
move from the Rockies into the northern Plains and Midwest early in
the week, while a trailing cold front eventually tries to advance
toward the area in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Shower chances
return on Thursday as the trailing cold front gets close to the
area. Showers could begin by late morning west of I-95, with
precipitation chances expanding to cover the entire area by the end
of the day. However, most of the models show a weakening trend in
the showers as they approach the area as the best upper forcing
misses us to the north. Despite this, most areas will likely see at
least 0.10" of rain from Thursday-Thursday night. Shower chances
likely end across the Piedmont by Friday morning following the FROPA
but continue during the day/evening on Friday across the eastern 2/3
of the FA (especially near the coast) as some redevelopment is
possible before the weak cold front crosses the rest of the area.
Again, expect more in the way of scattered showers versus widespread
rain from Thu-Fri. Most areas will see measurable rain but ensemble
probabilities for >0.5" are only 10-30% on the EPS and 30-60% on the
GEFS/CMCE. Highs remain at least in the low-mid 70s through the end
of the week, with dew points potentially rising well into the 60s by
late week. Mainly dry weather likely returns on Saturday. Another
shortwave may move across the area late Sunday-Monday, but this
system will likely be moisture starved as the deeper moisture likely
gets shunted offshore after Friday`s FROPA.

There won`t be much in the way of appreciable CAA behind the front,
and above average temperatures may continue through next weekend.
There remain no potential freezes in the forecast as the more
substantial cold air remains in the northern half of Canada for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z TAF
period. The wind will become E to NE 5-10kt during the day
today at ORF, ECG, and PHF, with a light SE wind at RIC and SBY.
Clear outside of SCT- BKN clouds aoa 10000 ft AGL. There is a
low probability of fog at RIC/SBY/PHF late tonight. For now, did
not add any TEMPO groups to the TAFs but will continue to
monitor.

Outlook: Dry weather and prevailing VFR conditions are expected
through at least Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late
next week, but confidence remains low on coverage and any
potential restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions persist through mid-week before a potential
  weather system approaches.

A broad area of high pressure remains centered over the region early
this morning. NE winds are currently 10 knots or less and will
remain so throughout the day today. Seas are 3-4 ft across the NC
coastal waters, with 2-3 ft seas to the north. Waves in the Bay are
around 1 foot. Expect these benign marine conditions to persist
through Wednesday. Winds will become more easterly on Tuesday, but
stay ~5-10kt with occasional gusts to 15 kt.

High pressure will slide offshore on Wednesday as an area of low
pressure and its associated cold front approach from the west. This
will shift winds southeasterly beginning Thursday, but still remain
below SCA thresholds. Confidence is currently lower, but this could
potentially bring our first brief rain chances in weeks.
Additionally, a building swell from the southeast could raise seas
into SCA range nearshore late this week into next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JKP