Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

512
FXUS61 KAKQ 081130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
630 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonably cool the remainder of the weekend through
the middle of the week.

2) The weather pattern becomes more amplified later next week
with low-end rain chances returning later Thursday/Thursday
night followed by a brief surge of colder air with below average
temperatures into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably cool the remainder of the
weekend through the middle of the week.

GOES water vapor channels depict zonal flow across the Mid-
Atlantic between a trough departing to the NE over New England
and another trough diving to the the upper Midwest. At the
surface, a broad area of 1024mb high pressure is centered over
AR and extends eastward into the southern Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast. Mostly clear early this morning with some thin cirrus
spreading across southern VA and NE NC. Temperatures are
generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, with mid 40s to
lower 50s toward and along the coast.

Surface high pressure settles S today with a lee-side trough
developing in advance of an upper trough swinging across the
Great Lakes. This will allow the low-level flow to become SW by
this afternoon under a sunny sky with high temperatures rising
into the mid 60s inland, with highs closer to the coast
generally around 60F or in the lower 60s. By tonight, the trough
pushes toward New England with a dry cold front approaching
from the N. Not as cool tonight with lows generally in the
lower/mid 40s, with some upper 30s in the Piedmont.

The dry cold front pushes across the area Monday. Becoming
breezy behind the front with a NW wind of 10-15 mph with gusts
to ~20 mph for most of the area, and 15-20 mph with gusts to
25-30 mph over the Eastern Shore. High pressure rebuilds across
the region Monday night into Tuesday, before sliding offshore
Wednesday. High temperatures Monday range from around 60F at the
coast to the mid 60s inland, and then mid 60s to around 70F
Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows Monday night/early Tuesday morning
range from the mid to upper 30s inland to the lower/mid 40s at
the coast. Patchy frost is possible inland, but it is worth
noting that the legacy MOS guidance is a few degrees higher with
overnight lows than the NBM. Not as cool but still seasonal
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 30s
to mid 40s (mid/upper 40s at the coast). Dry weather continues
through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The weather pattern becomes more amplified
later next week with low-end rain chances returning later
Thursday/Thursday night followed by a brief surge of colder air
with below average temperatures into next weekend.

08/00z EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all continue to depict an anomalous
500mb trough developing across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by
Thursday- Friday. Low-end rain chances return later
Thursday/Thursday night with the potential for developing low
pressure ahead of the deepening trough. Confidence in details at
this forecast range is low, but the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS show a
40-80% chance of at least 0.1" of rain through 12z Friday, with
the highest chances in the N, and only a 10-20% chance of at
least 0.5" of rain across the N. Looking at percentiles, the
50th percentile QPF is generally 0.1" or less S to 0.1-0.2" N,
with a reasonable low end (10th percentile) of a T to a few
hundredths of an inch, and a reasonable high end (90th
percentile) of ~0.25" S to ~0.5" N. A surge of colder air
follows with below average temperatures favored by Friday into
next weekend. With this trend, there is a chance this could end
the growing season for the remaining areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Sunday...

High pressure remained centered SW of the region as of 12z. VFR
with some dissipating this CI and a very light W to NW wind.
VFR conditions prevail today and tonight as high pressure
remains over the region. A light NW wind through the morning
will become SW 5-10kt by this aftn and evening, before becoming
light out of the W late tonight ahead of a dry cold front.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue into the
middle of next week. A breezy NW wind develops behind the
aforementioned dry cold front Monday, especially at SBY. A
stronger cold front approaches from the W Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated winds continue through Monday with NW winds today
  shifting to the SW tonight and then WNW Monday. Small Craft
  Advisories are in effect through most of the morning, with
  additional advisories likely tonight and Monday.

- Calmer marine conditions return to the waters beyond Monday
  and continue through most of the upcoming week. Degraded winds
  and seas/waves are possible by Friday into weekend as low
  pressure approaches the area, but confidence in details is
  low.

Small Craft Advisories continue for the Chesapeake Bay and
nearshore coastal waters through 10 AM this morning. As of the
early morning hours, winds are averaging 15-25 kt, highest in
the eastern half of the bay and just offshore in the ocean
waters. Frequent gusts to 25 kt are expected to continue over
the next few hours and cannot rule out of few gusts to 30 knots
north of Windmill Point. Winds are forecast to diminish and
shift to the W and then SW this afternoon. By late this evening
and tonight, a dry cold front quickly approaches from the W. SW
winds increase to 15-20 kt for a ~6 hr period after midnight for
the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters, and lower James River. 18
kt sustained wind probs are very high (>80%), with the higher 25
kt gust probs confined to the coastal waters. Regardless,
another round of SCAs seem likely tonight. The wind direction
becomes W/WNW behind the frontal passage around sunrise Monday
morning, with speeds then increasing again to 15-20 kt as cold
advection overspreads the waters. It is likely that a longer-
period SCA will be needed to cover both the SW flow period
tonight and then the NW/WNW flow period Monday. Seas likely
hover between 3- 5 ft through early Monday night, though they
may briefly diminish some this afternoon. 6-7 ft seas are
possible beyond 20 nm Monday. Waves in the bay will generally be
2-3 ft through Monday.

Winds should finally decrease and remain below SCA criteria
from Monday night through most of the upcoming week. The current
forecast shows SW ~10 kt winds Tuesday, light and variable
winds Wednesday, and ~10 kt E winds Thursday as low pressure
develops near the eastern Great Lakes. Seas also average 2-3 ft
Tuesday through Thursday. There is increased uncertainty
regarding both the wind and sea/wave forecast Friday into the
weekend as the aforementioned low pressure system potentially
approaches the region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW