Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

726
FXUS61 KAKQ 192320
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
720 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion. Added some scattered showers late this
afternoon over NE NC. Otherwise, minimal changes needed at this
time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain showers taper off this afternoon. Clearing, cooler, and
drier tonight.

2) Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity for the
weekend. A more summer-like pattern takes hold for much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain showers taper off this afternoon.
Clearing, cooler, and drier tonight.

The remnants of TC Arthur are gradually lifting along the
Southeast coast this afternoon as a cold front, associated with
a strong low pressure system currently over Atlantic Canada,
drops through the region. The axis of heaviest rainfall
associated with Arthur has pushed offshore of the eastern
Carolinas early this afternoon. Meanwhile, the front is dropping
across the local area as of this writing, with a weakening line
of showers pushing across southside Hampton Roads and northeast
NC through over the next 1 to 2 hour. Some additional isolated
showers will be possible through 5-6 pm. Thereafter, expect
rapid clearing late this afternoon through this evening, with a
cooler, drier night in store as high pressure rebuilds from the
west. Overnight lows will drop mainly into the 60s, though some
upper 50s are possible well inland toward the US-15 corridor.
Guidance does show a low chance for some ground fog late
tonight into early Saturday morning across NE NC, where Td
values hang up longest this evening. Have held out fog mention
for now, but that can be re-evaluated this evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower
humidity for the weekend. A more summer-like pattern takes hold
for much of next week.

Dry, pleasant conditions are expected through this weekend.
High pressure builds over the local area from the west, and
there is good model agreement that PWAT values will drop down to
about 50% to 60% of normal, leading to dry weather and
seasonable temperatures. Look for highs in the 80s to lower 90s
each day this weekend, with lows mainly in the 60s to low 70s.

A more summer-like pattern looks to take hold by early next
week. Another cold front drops toward the Mid-Atlantic Monday,
crossing the local area Monday night into Tuesday. Showers and
storms return to the forecast during this timeframe, though once
again, the timing of the frontal passage will largely determine
the degree of any severe threat across the local area.
Otherwise, only slight to low-end chance PoPs and near to
slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through the end
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Friday...

Primarily VFR conditions are expected tonight into Saturday.
There remains some lingering mid-level cloud cover over central
VA and near RIC, but cloud cover should quickly diminish over
the next few hours. There is also a low chance of shower, mainly
at ECG, through early tonight. Predominantly SKC then prevails
tonight. Given earlier rainfall, will need to watch for patchy
fog development over interior portions of SE VA and NE NC
tonight given light winds. This would probably only affect ECG
and introduced a 4SM VSBY group from 06z-13z. Confidence,
however, is not particularly high. SCT high clouds Sat with a
5-10 kt W wind.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions prevail through the upcoming
weekend. Shower/storm chances return Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure builds into the region this weekend with benign
  marine conditions expected.

- Southerly winds strengthen on Monday ahead of the next system with
  SCA conditions likely.

The remnant circulation from former TC Arthur are located over
eastern NC this afternoon. A cold front is dropping south across the
local waters this afternoon. Winds just ahead of the boundary have
briefly increased to around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves in the
bay are 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft.

W and SW winds become N ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt behind the front.
Increased winds will be brief and tied to the frontal passage. Flow
transitions back to W then NW late tonight, mainly 10-15 kt before
falling back to 5-10 around sunrise. Quiet marine conditions are
then expected to prevail through the remainder of the weekend as
high pressure builds over the area. The gradient tightens again
starting Sunday night ahead of the next system. A warm front lifts
northward on Monday with winds becoming S 15-20 kt in the
bay/rivers/sound and 20-25 kt offshore. Seas will build to 3-4 ft S
and 4-6 ft N nearshore. In the 20-60nm zones, seas will average 5-7
ft. The front crosses the waters Monday night with improving marine
conditions expected Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RHR