Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

477
FXUS61 KAKQ 301713
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1213 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Storm Watch upgraded to Warning in Hampton Roads and
northeast North Carolina. Forecast snowfall amounts continue to
decrease for the northern half of the area with a tightening
gradient for the higher amounts. Cold Weather Advisory issued
for late tonight through Saturday. A Coastal Flood Watch has
been issued for portions of far SE VA and NE NC for Sunday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High confidence that a strong winter storm impacts the region
Friday night into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall and
blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds are expected. The
highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of
the area. There will likely be a very sharp gradient in total
snowfall amounts, roughly along the US-360 corridor (potentially
through the Richmond Metro).

2) Moderate to locally Major coastal flooding is expected with
the high tide cycle Sunday morning for portions of Hampton
Roads and NE NC; a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued.

3) Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week,
keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place through the
weekend. The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night
into Sunday morning and an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for
the entire forecast area. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect
tonight for portions of the Maryland and Virginia Eastern Shore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...High confidence that a strong winter storm
impacts the region Friday night into Sunday. Significant
accumulating snowfall and blowing and drifting snow due to
strong winds are expected. The highest confidence is across
south and southeastern portions of the area. There will likely
be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, roughly
along the US-360 corridor (potentially through the Richmond
Metro).

Guidance continues to dial in on the track of the low pressure
system. Seeing reduced spread between the main global models and
their ensembles with respect to low centers, which would have the
low hug the southern NC coast before continuing NE and straying
further offshore as it passes by VA. The main mode of disagreement
continues to be the battle zone between drier air from the N/NW
associated with a very strong area of high pressure (~1045 mb)
over the Plains, and the intense low pressure system developing
off the SE coast late Friday night/Saturday. There is still
quite a bit of spread in the models regarding snowfall totals as
a result, especially with how far north/northwest the snow
makes it. The NAM and HRRR keep measurable snowfall S/SE of the
Richmond metro, whereas the global models take measurable snow
north of the I-64 corridor and up the Eastern Shore as well. A
very tight gradient is likely with this system, which is well
depicted in the high-res guidance. Unfortunately this also means
than any subtle shift in storm track could mean the difference
between and inch of snow and 6 inches of snow for areas along
that northern edge of the snowfall. Ensembles further support
the notion of the higher snowfall totals hugging the coast. For
example, the 50%+ probs for 6" (which realistically is more like
9" since SLR will be higher than 10:1) from the Euro Ens are
limited to OBX and Virginia Beach. In response to these trends,
the forecast snow totals have leaned into the tighter gradient
and shifted the highest total from being generally across the
south to being in the southeast. Now forecasting 8-10" (locally
to 12") for south-side Hampton Roads and far NE NC, 5-8" for
Mecklenburg over to the peninsula, and tapering to 1-3" for
Cumberland through the RIC metro and NE to the Eastern Shore.
Expect that this gradient will tighten further in the next few
forecast cycles. Went ahead and upgraded the Winter Storm Watch
to a warning for the highest confidence areas: NE NC and Hampton
Roads (including Southampton and Isle of Wight). The rest of
the Winter Storm Watch remains unchanged. Will also note that
there is high confidence in very strong winds occuring along the
coast Sat night into Sunday morning with gusts of 50-60mph. In
addition to the potential to damage trees/powerlines, this could
create blizzard conditions for the coastal counties. Therefore,
kept the blizzard wording from the watch in the warning for
these zones.

Regarding the potential for overrunning snowfall this afternoon: the
CAMs have mostly backed off on any appreciable snowfall during the
day today. Kept chances in for south-central VA, but it generally
looks to remain west of the FA. That said, cannot rule out a few
tenths of an inch. As for the timing of the rest of the snow,
expecting snow to gradually push N into the area late Friday night.
Likely PoPs enter the southern edge of the FA Sat morning and slowly
push N through the day. Snow continues through Sat night with
highest confidence in the south/southeast and along the coast.
Snow comes to an end from W to E Sunday morning.

Please keep a close eye on the forecast over the next 24 hours, with
forecast confidence remaining below average for this timeframe. A
~50 mile shift in the coastal low will have drastic impacts to the
final snowfall amounts. Additional messaging and headlines will need
adjustments over the next few forecast cycles.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Moderate to locally major tidal flooding is expected
with the high tide cycle early Sunday, primarily across southside
Hampton Roads and the Atlantic coast of NE NC. Deepening sfc low
pressure will be pushing farther off the NC and VA coast early
Sunday, with strong N winds becoming NNW. This wind direction as
the high tide cycle approaches favors the greatest impacts on
the Atlantic facing portions of VA Beach and Currituck NC and
these areas (as well as Northampton VA for Kiptopeke) have been
included in a Coastal Flood Watch for widespread moderate to
locally major tidal flooding. Minor flooding is likely into the
lower James and a little farther up the Bay but this will be
handled w/ Coastal Flood Advisories as needed. Well up the Bay,
water levels will be much lower due to the strong N winds.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Well below normal temperatures remain through early
next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place
through the weekend. The coldest air wind chills are expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning and an Extreme Cold Watch has
been issued for the entire forecast area. A Cold Weather Advisory is
in effect tonight and tomorrow for the entire area leading up to
the Extreme Cold Watch.

Friday will see highs struggle to get out of the mid 20s for much of
the northern two-thirds of the area. Saturday will be even colder
with highs in the low to mid 20s for most. Winds chills will be near
zero across the north and 5-10 degrees to the south. While there may
be a few hours during the day Sat where wind chills are above
criteria, went ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the
entire area starting tonight and lasting until the Extreme Cold
Watch starts. The Extreme Cold Watch has been maintained for
Saturday night into Sunday morning where the combination of a strong
N to NW wind and air temperatures in the low to mid teens will
result in wind chills as low as 0 to 10 below.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EST Friday...

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through tonight and into
early Sunday morning. There is a chance for some -SN across south-
central VA this afternoon/evening, which as of now would miss the
main terminals and be more towards FVX/AVC area. Light NE winds
of 5-10kt through tonight before beginning to increase with
gusts to 20-25kt for eastern terminals after ~12Z.
Deteriorating conditions will spread north/eastward across the
terminals closer to daybreak. Have included MVFR CIGs at ORF/ECG
after 06Z/Sat. PROB30s remain for all terminals except SBY for
SN and lower VIS starting ~12-14Z. Highest confidence in seeing
snow during this TAF period is at ECG after 12Z.

Outlook: A winter storm will continue to impact the area Saturday
night into Sunday morning. The greatest impacts are expected
Saturday evening through Sunday morning. At this time, periods with
+SN and low VSBYs are most likely, along with elevated to strong
northerly winds, at ORF and ECG Sat night through Sunday morning.
Can expect gusts of 40 kt+ closer to the coast with inland terminals
likely to see gusts to around 30 kt. Winds become NW Sunday and
remain elevated but flight restrictions should drop off as SN ends
(though BLSN may be an issue). Otherwise mostly clear with gradually
diminishing winds into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EST Friday...

- Ramp up Small Craft Advisories are in effect from late
  tonight-Saturday as conditions begin to deteriorate ahead of
  the main storm.

- Confidence remains high in high-end Gale to Storm conditions
  this weekend as a strong coastal low develops off the
  Carolinas. Storm Warnings have been issued for the coastal
  waters south of Cape Charles, where confidence in storm
  conditions is highest and onset time is earliest (Saturday
  evening).

- Freezing spray and high seas are expected this weekend as well.
  A Heavy Freezing Spray Watch has been issued for the bay,
  Lower James, and northern two coastal zones for Saturday night
  into Sunday morning, when accretion rates could reach 2
  cm/hour for a few hours.

High pressure is beginning to build toward the waters with N-NW winds
of ~15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft, and as expected,
light freezing spray is occurring with accretion rates on the order
of 0.25-0.40 cm/hour. No advisories right now as accretion rates
aren`t expected to reach moderate levels until Sat night.

Strong high pressure builds south from the northern Plains into the
Gulf today into Sat. All eyes will then turn to a coastal low, which
begins to form off the SE CONUS coast late Friday before gradually
deepening on Saturday. Then, the low is progged to rapidly deepen to
a very impressive 970-980mb as it moves to a position 100-200 miles
east of the VA/NC coast by Sunday morning. Sub-advisory conditions
are expected from today through part of tonight. Then, NE winds
increase to ~20 kt by 12z/7 AM Sat before becoming 20-30 kt with
gusts to 35 kt by Saturday afternoon. Ramp up SCAs have been issued
for all marine zones to account for this. Marine conditions will
rapidly deteriorate Saturday night as the low deepens to below
980mb. The 00z/30 guidance is starting to come into agreement with a
slightly farther south track than was expected 24-36 hours ago.
Still, very dangerous marine conditions are expected Saturday night
into Sunday with winds becoming N then NNW and increasing to 30-40
kt north/35-45 kt south.

There is still a moderate to high potential for storm conditions
across most of the waters (highest confidence south of Windmill
Pt/Chincoteague). The worst conditions are expected from midnight-
noon on Sunday. Confidence in storm conditions has increased enough
to upgrade to Storm Warnings for the southern two coastal zones and
Currituck Sound (onset time is also slightly earlier here with storm
conditions starting late Sat evening). Local wind probs for 48 kt
gusts have increased to 60-95% across these zones, hence the upgrade
to a warning after collaboration with MHX. Will leave the Storm
Watches up elsewhere with Gale Watches for the upper rivers. The
probability for 48 kt gusts remains 30-60% across the Ches Bay (much
higher across the Lower Bay with lower probs around Tangier) and 40-
60% across the northern Coastal Waters north of Cape Charles Light.
Seas build to 8-12 ft across the northern coastal waters and 10-15+
feet across the southern coastal waters (highest across the NC
coastal waters) given the strong winds. Additionally, given the high
probability for snow (potentially heavy), periods of zero visibility
are increasingly likely across the coastal waters Sat into Sun.
Lastly, periods of light freezing spray will continue through
Saturday before a period of moderate to occasionally heavy freezing
spray is expected Saturday night through Sunday morning with the
very strong winds/CAA on the back side of the low. With water temps
already in the mid 30s across the bay and likely the very nearshore
nrn coastal waters, have issued a Heavy Freezing Spray Watch here as
water temps will likely cool by another degree or two with air temps
potentially in the upper teens Sun AM. Winds become NW behind the
low and gradually diminish Mon. Sub-advisory winds return Monday
evening and continue through the middle of the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Max Temperatures for Sat Jan 31:

- RIC: 23 (1948)
- ORF: 25 (1936)
- SBY: 24 (2019)
- ECG: 29 (1965)

Daily Record Snowfall for Sat Jan 31 and Sun Feb 1:

- Date: Sat Jan 31    Sun Feb 1

- RIC: 7.0" (1948)    3.1" (1948)
- ORF: 4.0" (1980)    4.0" (1910)
- SBY: 4.0" (2010)    4.0" (1962)
- ECG: 5.0" (1980)    7.0" (1948)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
     for MDZ021>025.
     Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     morning for MDZ021>025.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for MDZ023>025.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
     for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for NCZ102.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
     for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-
     509>525.
     Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     morning for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
     095>100-509>525.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for
     VAZ092-093-095>098-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for VAZ095-097-098-100.
     Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Sunday
     afternoon for VAZ060-061-066>069.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for VAZ065-079-087.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon
     for VAZ076>078-080>083-085-512>520-522.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     VAZ084-086-088>090.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630-
     631-635>637-650-652-654.
     Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652-654.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from late Saturday night through
     Sunday morning for ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ632>634-638-656-658.
     Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ633.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     ANZ635>637.
     Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...ERI
CLIMATE...LKB/JKP