Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

164
FXUS61 KAKQ 212351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
751 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
An Increased Fire Danger Statement has been
issued for northeast North Carolina for Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An Increased Fire Danger statement has been
issued for northeast North Carolina for Wednesday, with an expansion
into interior portions of southern Virginia likely.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as
a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure
tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 750 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An Increased Fire Danger statement has been
issued for northeast North Carolina for Wednesday, with an expansion
into interior portions of southern Virginia likely.

High pressure (~1027mb) was centered over the area this
evening, allowing for dry conditions and light winds. The high
pressure will settle offshore tonight ahead of a prefrontal
trough, which moves into the region Wednesday. There is a chc
of showers and a few tstms during the afternoon, especially
from central VA to the Eastern Shore. However, 30-55% PoPs from
the NBM seem rather generous given a deep well mixed boundary
layer with min RH values of 30-45% coincident with the highest
PoPs. Looking at recent model soundings, the dry middle layer of
the atmosphere will prohibit the amount of rainfall at the
surface. Ensemble guidance only have a 10-20% chance of the
northern half of the area receiving 0.10" of rainfall. Farther
south, min RH values fall to 25-35% across souther VA/NE NC and
with the combined gusty southwest winds to 25 mph, there is
increased fire danger. In coordination with neighboring offices
and the NC Forest Service, have issued an IFD statement for NE
NC while holding off for a statement for the VA areas, as there
is more uncertainty where to draw the line with the higher RH
values (and possible light rainfall) to the north. An additional
statement for portions of the VA area is likely with the next
forecast package.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into
Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a
wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler
temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

12z deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a cold front
dropping to near the VA/NC border Saturday. Timing of this front
will have an impact on high temperatures Saturday as very warm
conditions should continue ahead of the front, with much cooler
temperatures behind the front. A wave of low pressure tracks along
the front later Saturday into Saturday night bringing rain chances
to the region. This front is not expected to bring much QPF with the
latest ensembles only showing a 60-90% chance of 0.10" and a 20-40%
chance of 0.50". This is nowhere near the drought buster we need,
but may be able to alleviate some concerns and any rainfall is
welcomed. Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs in
the 60s Sunday and lows in the mid 40s Sunday night. High pressure
is progged to return by Monday with high temperatures in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. High clouds
gradually overspread the region this evening into tonight from W
to E before diminishing in coverage by early Wed morning. A
prefrontal trough on Wed allows for some scattered showers to
develop across mainly northern portions of the area (30-50%
PoPs). Given the higher confidence across northern locations,
have added PROB30s for RIC and SBY to account for this
potential. Will note that some model guidance shows showers
reaching southern VA including ORF/PHF. However, will wait and
see if this is a trend or an anomaly before adding any chance
for rain to the TAFs for ORF/PHF. Any rain would likely be light
(<0.1") with minimal impacts to VIS. Given the prefrontal
trough, cloud cover will also increase from N to S Wed with
clearing conditions behind the convection. Otherwise, S winds of
5-10 kt tonight become SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt Wed
morning into Wed afternoon. Winds become light and variable Wed
night.

Outlook: The next potential for flight restrictions will be
Fri into Sat as a weak area of low pressure approaches from the
W.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Another round of Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the
Chesapeake Bay, select tidal rivers, and the ocean N of Parramore
Island tonight due to elevated S-SW winds.

- Lighter flow prevails for the mid and late week period.

High pressure is situated over the marine area this afternoon,
leading to benign conditions. Latest obs show light winds that are
onshore due to a developed sea breeze. Seas are 2-3ft, waves in the
bay and rivers are 1ft or less.

A mid-level disturbance will track SE out of the Great Lakes
tonight, with a weak area of surface low pressure also expected to
pass N of the waters. A locally tightened pressure gradient and
transient low-level jet allows for SE-S winds to increase 15-20 kt
by late this evening and then to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt
over the northern waters tonight into early Wednesday morning. Small
Craft Advisories go into effect for the bay zones at 7pm (an earlier
time than previously issued), and for the York River, James River,
and Coastal Waters N of Parramore Island later tonight. For the
southern coastal waters, a weaker pressure gradient should portend
to lower peak sustained winds of 15-20 kt tonight with gusts to 25
kt. Gusty conditions continue into tomorrow as a warm front passes
through the region. Highest winds will be in nearshore waters as
mixing allows for higher gust factors over the land. Therefore, the
SCAs for the James and York Rivers extend into the mid afternoon
Wed. Could see an expansion to the Rappahannock River if conditions
warrant. Winds overall should diminish in the late afternoon as the
pressure gradient loosens, but cannot rule out an extension into the
evening for the rivers if gusts remain elevated. Lighter flow with
daily sea breezes returns by Thursday and Friday. A weak low
pressure system could then impact the waters by the weekend.

Seas increase again tonight in response to the S- SW winds, ranging
from 3-4 ft S to 4-5 ft N. Waves in bay are also forecast to
increase to 3-4 ft. Seas and waves trend lower by the mid-late week
period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ636-637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AC/SW