Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

636
FXUS61 KAKQ 141051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
651 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing rain/storm chances for Saturday and Sunday.

Heat returns Wednesday into the weekend. Minor increase to
temperatures have been made for Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drier conditions persist today with temperatures warming
back to near normal.

2) Hot conditions return for the second half of the week.
Remaining dry through Friday, followed by increasing
thunderstorm chances this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier conditions persist today with
temperatures warming back to near normal.

Latest analysis continues to show ~1024mb sfc high pressure
building south over the local area early this morning. Aloft, a
potent upper level ridge is centered over the Upper Midwest,
with a broad upper trough now offshore of the East Coast.

Expect partly to mostly sunny skies today. The surface high
lingers over the region, while the offshore upper trough drifts
southwestward over the Ohio Valley and slowly begins to slide SE
back toward the local area. Highs will be 3-5 degrees warmer
than yesterday, averaging in the mid-to-upper 80s with
relatively comfortable low-to-mid 60s dewpoints this afternoon.
Skies remain mostly clear tonight as the surface high slowly
slides offshore. Early morning lows will drop into the low-to-
mid 60s inland, mid-to-upper 60s east of I-95, and the lower 70s
along the immediate coastline.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions return for the second half of
the week. Remaining dry through Friday, followed by increasing
thunderstorm chances this weekend.

Heights continue to rise through the rest of the week, as the
previously referenced upper ridge builds SE over the region.
Hot weather returns Wednesday, with even hotter conditions to
follow for Thursday and Friday. Highs rise into the lower-to-
mid 90s Wednesday, with the highest readings across the north
given that the ridge is building from NW-to-SE. Highs in the
mid 90s to 100F readings are forecast for Thursday and Friday.
Convection should remain suppressed away from the area through
Friday, as the next front remains well to our north and the
upper trough near the area retrogrades to the west. Do add a
slight chance (~20%) PoP Friday evening across the piedmont,
with some hints of a few storms potentially firing and riding
down along the periphery of the ridge into the US-15 corridor
and vicinity mainly west of Richmond Friday evening.

Downslope flow owing to the developing piedmont trough will
keep afternoon dewpoints in check to a degree, with dew points
mixing back into the lower to middle 60s each day. For that
reason, heat indices look to remain in the upper 90s to low 100s
on Wednesday, though we will approach Heat Advisory criteria
over the MD Eastern Shore. However, the threat remains marginal
and will hold off on headlines for now. That said, Heat
Advisories do look to be more likely for much of the area
Thursday and potentially Friday as well.

The ridge looks to gradually break down over the weekend, as
upper troughing re-establishes itself over the northern Mid-
Atlantic and northeast CONUS. A series of shortwaves will track
across the area from Saturday through Monday ahead of the next
front approaching from the north. There is increasing model
consensus that this weakening front may linger across the area
into Monday. While considerable uncertainty remains regarding
the exact timing and coverage of storms, the upper flow turning
WNW-NW over a hot, moisture-pooled boundary layer sets up a
climatologically-favored pattern for locally heavy rainfall and
downbursts. Low- level frontal forcing appears weak, not
unusual for mid- July, but moisture pooling along the slow-
moving boundary beneath steep mid-level lapse rates favor a hot,
muggy, high DCAPE setup capable of producing isolated to
scattered damaging wind gusts each day this weekend, potentially
lingering into Monday. Areal coverage of these storms will
ultimately depend on shortwave timing, which is quite uncertain
at this time range. Obviously, this threat will be monitored in
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Tuesday...

Weak high pressure continues to build south across the lower
mid-Atlantic to begin the 12z TAF period. VFR across the region
will prevail through the period. some scattered ground fog at
RIC, SBY, and PHF will quickly scour out to begin the period.
Otherwise, a mainly clear/sunny sky expected with light winds
this morning turning generally E/NE 5-10kt from late morning
on, turning E-SE into the aftn with late day seabreeze at ORF,
PHF, and ECG. Winds becoming SSE 5-10 kt at RIC, and SW 5-10kt
at SBY. Winds turn light out of the S-SW overnight tonight and
into Wednesday.

Outlook: Drier conditions prevail through late this week. The
next chance of showers/tstms arrives mainly west of KRIC on
Friday, with better chances area wide coming later Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...

- Benign marine conditions are expected Tuesday into late week
  as high pressure is focused over the area.

- There is a High Risk of Rip Currents across southern beaches
  and a Moderate Risk across northern beaches today.

High pressure has settled overhead the area early this morning.
Winds are currently E 5-10kt across the VA and NC waters and S-SE
off the MD coast. WInds will continue to shift from E to S-SE
throughout the day, remaining light around 5-10 kt. Seas have
decreased in the southern waters to 3-4 ft (2-3 ft for northern
waters), with waves ~1 ft. The high pressure will remain over the
area through late week, allowing for sub-SCA conditions to prevail
with S-SW winds. A weak frontal passage is possible Thursday into
Friday, which could briefly shift winds out of the N-NW with an
increase to 10-15 kt, but SCA conditions are unlikely at this time.
A stronger front looks to cross the area this weekend and could
bring elevated boating conditions.

A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for the southern beaches
with a Moderate Risk for the northern beaches today due to the
prolonged longer-period swell with shore normal flow, despite
onshore flow and seas decreasing. Wednesday, onshore flow will
decrease with winds parallel to the shore. A Low Risk of Rip Current
is likely for all beaches Wednesday and Thursday.


.Coastal Flooding...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the early morning
high tide across the tidal rivers and middle Chesapeake Bay. A
combination of high astronomical tides from the King Tide and onshore
flow has allowed for nuisance to low-end minor flooding. Will note
that most gages have come up lower than forecasted, likely due to
light winds. Because of this, am refraining from issuing any
statements for tonight`s high tide, as it looks to be more marginal
and only affecting the MD shore along the Ches. Bay. Depending on
water level trends during the day, Coastal Flood Statements may
still be issued.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...KMC