Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

665
FXUS61 KAKQ 141150
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
650 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 12z TAF/Aviation discussion. No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much colder air persists this weekend into early next week.
Near-freezing temperatures will be possible each night through
Monday morning. Below normal temperatures continue through
Tuesday, with warmer readings expected for mid to late next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 650 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Much colder air persists this weekend into
early next week. Near-freezing temperatures will be possible
each night through Monday morning. Below normal temperatures
continue through Tuesday, with warmer readings expected for mid
to late next week.

Latest analysis reveals a broad upper low centered over New
England into the coastal Northeast, with deepening low pressure
SSE of Cape Cod. To the west, 1028+mb sfc high pressure
continues to slide east from the Northern Plains toward the
upper midwest.

Early morning WV/IR composite imagery shows a weak shortwave
rounding the base of the upper trough as it crosses the
Carolinas. Weak overrunning moisture associated with this
feature has produced a narrow band of light rain just south of
the local area early this morning, with our area once again
remaining mainly dry. Lingering mid-level clouds have cleared
across our southern tier of counties into eastern NC due to
subsidence behind the departing shortwave. Meanwhile, a
lingering stratus/stratocumulus deck over the Lower Eastern
Shore is holding temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Farther inland, between these two features, partial clearing has
allowed temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 30s as of
this writing over much of central and south- central VA. The
Freeze Warning remains in effect through 8 AM over the I-95
corridor, mainly along and south of the RIC metro and extending
to the inland portion of the VA Northern Neck south to
Northampton and Hertford counties in NC. A Frost Advisory
remains in place over the coastal Northern Neck along the
eastern flank of the Freeze Warning. It remains to be seen how
temperatures fare over the next few hours and how much of the
area will have its growing season ended by a light freeze. Will
allow the day crew to evaluate morning observations and clear
counties from the frost/freeze program for the season before
addressing frost/freeze headlines for tonight. Tonight will
bring another opportunity for a similar light freeze over this
area (and spots farther inland), followed by a more classically
favorable radiational cooling setup Sunday night into early
Monday with clear skies and decoupling winds as chilly high
pressure slides over the region.

Otherwise, minimal sensible weather concerns are expected over
the next several days. Cooler, drier conditions persist well
into next week. Temperatures will average 8-10 degrees below
normal, with highs in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper
20s to low 30s inland (mid 30s to low 40s along the coast).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions across area terminals just before sunrise this
morning will prevail through the 12z TAF period. SCT-BKN clouds
around 4-6 kft AGL will persist on the back side of deepening
low pressure offshore, mainly impacting coastal terminals
through this evening. Gusty NW winds have diminished slightly
early this morning, but will increase again after sunrise
through mid-afternoon. Some occasional gusts ~20-25 kt are
likely, with the highest gusts expected near the coast.

Outlook: VFR conditions are favored into next week with
continued gusty NW winds, gradually diminishing Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 205 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters this
morning through early Sunday.

- Benign marine conditions are expected early next week through at
least mid week.

Elevated NW winds continue today as CAA behind yesterday`s cold
fronts mixes with the warmer water temperatures still in the upper
50s to lower 60s. Winds are currently NNW averaging around 10-15 kt
with gusts to 25 kt early this morning. Winds will peak this
afternoon around 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. An isolated gust to
35 knots is possible out around 60 nm or at elevated sites, but gale
wind gust probabilities are near zero. Additionally, seas will build
to 4-6 ft nearshore and 6-8+ for waters beyond 20 nm. Waves will
build to 2-4 ft. Elevated waves and seas will continue through early
Sunday morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local
waters through Sunday morning/early afternoon, with the upper rivers
going into effect later this morning through tonight. Gusts to ~20
kt may linger Sunday in the Ches. Bay, which could warrant extending
the SCA through late Sunday afternoon. Otherwise winds will decrease
throughout Sunday with benign marine conditions returning through at
least Wednesday as high pressure builds and centers over the
area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012-013.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ014-030.
VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ076-079>083-
     087>090-092-512>522.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ075-077-078-
     084-085-523-524-528-529.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633-
     639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...ERI/MAM/RHR
MARINE...KMC