Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

947
FXUS61 KAKQ 201821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
221 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Marginal Risk for severe storms has been added for Monday.

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity
for the weekend.

2) Showers and storms return Monday with potential
for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. A more summer-like
pattern takes hold for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity
for the weekend.

Pleasant afternoon across the region with temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s and dew points in the 50s. Skies are mostly sunny with
some bands of cirrus noted on satellite imagery. Continued mostly
clear and comfortable tonight with lows mainly in the 60s. High
pressure starts to get shunted to the S on Sunday with a lee trough
setting up east of the Appalachians. Moisture levels increase a bit
on Sunday along with temperatures but not enough to allow any
isolated shower or storm activity. High temps warm into the upper
80s and low 90s (highest S and away from the coast) with dew points
creeping back into the upper 50s and low 60s. Partly cloudy skies in
the afternoon will give way to increasing clouds Sunday evening
ahead of the next system. Overnight lows will be a touch warmer as
well with most areas in the upper 60s to low 70s.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and storms return Monday with potential
for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. A more summer-like
pattern takes hold for much of next week.

A warm front lifts northward ahead of low pressure approaching from
the NW. Winds will become quite breezy on Monday with southerly flow
moving in the the wake of the warm front. Increasing moisture will
lead to more cloud cover than previous days but temps will still
rise well into the 90s with afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s
to low 100s. Forecast soundings show increasing instability by early
afternoon but also some low level capping which favors increasing
showers and storm potential by mid to late afternoon into the
evening. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (lvl 1/5) across the
entire area for Monday. Vertical shear is not expected to be overly
strong (~20 kts) but low level lapse rates will be quite steep,
favoring the potential for water-loaded/strong downdrafts. PWAT
values increase to 1.75-2" with potential for locally heavy
rainfall. Certainly not expecting widespread flooding issues given
very dry antecedent conditions but will need to watch urban and poor
drainage areas. The shower and storm threat will continue through
the evening but should taper off overnight into Tuesday. The front
moves through the area on Tuesday with lower precip chances and
highs mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s through the end of the
week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Saturday...

A weak trough aiding in the development of a high pressure system
centered over Eastern Tennessee and Kentucky is moving through the
region this afternoon. This is leading to drier/VFR conditions with
W-SW winds across the area. Gusts up to 20 kt out of the WSW will
continue at SBY, PHF and RIC through this afternoon. Winds becoming
generally light (less than 5 kt) tonight. Dry and stable conditions
will persist overnight with the winds shifting to be more westerly
tomorrow.

Outlook: Drier/VFR conditions prevail through the weekend.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase late Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure builds into the region this weekend with benign
  marine conditions expected.

- Southerly winds strengthen on Monday ahead of the next system with
  SCA conditions likely.

Weak surface high pressure continues to build over the waters
through this weekend, allowing for benign boating conditions. Winds
turn east-southeast with typical sea breeze circulations this
afternoon, veering around to the north-northwest late tonight with a
very weak cold air advection (CAA) push overnight. North-northeast
winds veer back onshore with the afternoon sea breeze once again
tomorrow, with speeds averaging 5-10 kt. Waves will run 1-2 ft with
seas 1-3 ft, highest in the offshore 20-60 nm waters.

The high slides offshore Sunday night into Monday as low pressure
tracks from the mid-Mississippi River Valley into the eastern Great
Lakes. This low continues northeast into New England through Monday
night, dragging a warm front north across the local waters. Winds
become southerly at 15-20 kt in the bay, rivers, and sound, and 20-
25 kt offshore (with gusts to 30 kt) behind the warm front on
Monday. Wind speeds will peak late Monday afternoon into the early
evening before leveling off or diminishing slightly into Tuesday
morning.

Seas will build to 3-4 ft south and 4-6 ft north nearshore, and 5-7
ft across the 20-60 nm offshore zones. SCAs appear very likely for
most, if not all, of the marine area Monday afternoon and evening.
Additionally, isolated strong to severe storms are possible late
Monday afternoon into Monday evening, which will likely necessitate
SMWs or MWSs. As the low tracks to our north, a weak cold front will
cross the waters Monday night with improving marine conditions
expected Tuesday through midweek.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...TJT/MRD
MARINE...ERI/MAM