Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS61 KAKQ 082353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
753 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers are likely along a cold front today. A few thunderstorms
are also possible, especially from southern VA into northeast NC.
Storms could produce gusty winds and small hail. By late tonight,
patchy fog is expected to develop across the SE.

2) Warmth, potentially to record levels, continues into the middle
of next week.

3) A stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing the next chance for precipitation. Cooler
temperatures return to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are likely along a cold front today. A few
thunderstorms are also possible, especially from southern VA
into northeast NC. Storms could produce gusty winds and small
hail. By late tonight, patchy fog is expected to develop across
the SE.

Afternoon weather analysis shows the weakening cold front situated
along the spine of the Appalachian mountains. Ahead of the cold
front mostly cloudy skies are prevailing with better clearing and
less cloud coverage across the far SE. With SW winds prevailing
through much of the day temperatures have been able to rise into the
low to middle 70s. In addition to the SW winds dew points have been
able to mix slightly with middle to upper 50s dews across the NW and
low 60s across the SE. As upper level geopotential heights have
begun to slowly fall showers have begun to initiate south and west
of the area. These showers are expected to move into a marginal
severe environment across the far SE. Recent mesoanalysis shows
500 J/kg of MLcape and roughly 30-35kt of bulk-shear. If these
showers are able to maintain themselves and tap into this
environment a strong to severe storm cannot be rules out with
the primary threats being wind and hail. By this evening and
into tomorrow morning, showers and any storms will diminish as
the weakening cold front continues to advance eastward. The
front is expected to stall across SE VA. North and west of the
front drier conditions are expected. While across the SE
residual moisture will remain allowing for low stratus to patchy
fog to develop late tonight into Monday morning. Otherwise,
lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s across the
north and middle to upper 50s across the south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmth, potentially to record levels, continues
into the middle of next week.

Through the first half of the week, an upper level ridge is
expected to build over the area. At the surface, high pressure
builds in helping to keep skies mostly clear and allowing for
dry weather to prevail. In addition, warmer temperatures are
progged with record high temperatures possible for RIC and
potentially ORF. Highs Monday will be in the middle to upper
70s. Then the warmer and potential record breaking temperatures
come Tuesday and Wednesday. As of this forecast update, highs
Tuesday will be the upper 70s to low 80s and low to potentially
middle 80s Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A stronger cold front crosses the area later
Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for
precipitation. Cooler temperatures return to end the week.

A strong upper level trough is expected to move over the Mid-
Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday timeframe. At the surface, a strong
low pressure system is progged to track across the Great Lakes
vicinity and across the NE. The cold front associated with this
system is progged to move through the area late Wednesday into
early Thursday. The 12z/08 ensembles continue to remain in
disagreement with one another on QPF. The ECMWF has decent probs
of 30-40% for half an inch while the GFS remains less than 20%.
The system overall will be quite dynamic and with the strong
upper level winds may try to mix to the surface. There could
also be a severe threat associated with this system as the
ensembles have hinted on a slower moving front allowing for
destabilization to occur. Trends will continue to be monitored
in regards to the timing of the front. Regardless, temperatures
are likely to fall behind the front Thursday afternoon and the
drop could be more pronounced than what is currently shown in
the forecast. On a similar note, the highs shown for Thursday
likely occur early and probably will be much cooler at the
typical afternoon peak in the diurnal cycle.

Dry and briefly cooler to end the work week Friday with temperatures
returning to near normal for mid March. Potentially moderating back
into the mid-upper 60s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 753 PM EDT Sunday...

A cold front is moving through the area, which is bringing light to
moderate showers to PHF, ORF, and ECG this evening. Despite any
lingering light showers, all terminals (aside from ECG) are
observing VFR conditions. AT RIC and SBY, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. For the remaining terminals, the
front will stall in their vicinity, which will allow for low clouds
and possible fog to develop across the area, especially with light
and variable winds expected overnight. Conditions at ECG, PHF, and
ORF should start to improve in terms of VIS by mid-morning
tomorrow, though the low CIGs may linger through the early
afternoon at ECG as the front finally pushes through. Winds will
become SW tomorrow increase to 5-8 kts.

Outlook: Mainly VFR Monday through much of Wednesday. A
stronger front approaches later Wednesday into Thursday which
could bring additional showers and isolated storms, along with
some flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect through late afternoon for northern coastal
waters north of Wachapreague for lingering 4-5 foot seas. Seas will
continue to gradually subside through tonight.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected this evening through Wednesday
morning.

- Solid SCAs look increasingly likely from late Wednesday into
Friday morning, as a dynamic system moves north of the region, and
drags a cold front through the area on Thursday.


Latest wx analysis shows 1024mb sfc high pressure centered south of
Bermuda and strong low pressure over Quebec into Atlantic Canada.
The attendant, weakening surface front continues to slowly approach
the local waters this afternoon. S-SW Winds are averaging 10-15 kt
across the waters, w/Seas are 3-5 ft, with 1-3 ft waves on the bay.

Seas continue to slowly subside tonight around the surface high well
offshore. Have maintained SCA over the coastal waters north of
Wachapreague just a bit longer through 4pm. Benign, sub-SCA marine
conditions still expected to persist tonight through Wednesday
morning, as weak high pressure rebuilds from the SSW. Seas subside
to 2-3 ft tonight, Waves 1 ft, except ~2ft at the mouth of the Ches
Bay. Wind speeds veer around to the N then NE late tonight and
Monday, eventually becoming E-SE by afternoon. Winds are forecast to
be 10 kt or less through this period.

Dynamic low pressure still looks to track across the upper Midwest
to Quebec from Wednesday-Thursday morning, which will drag a second,
stronger cold front through the waters Thu morning/afternoon. Solid
SCA conditions are expected, with southerly winds ahead of the front
Wed afternoon, with veering NNW winds developing post-frontal. Winds
also increase to 20-30 kt Thu afternoon and evening. In-house wind
probs for 34 kt gusts have increased to 30-40% over the coastal
waters for a brief time Thu aftn/evening, with the Ches Bay still no
higher than 20% at this time. Do expect these probabilities are
likely to trend up a bit more with time as we get closer, and would
not be surprised to see brief period of low-end gale force gusts for
a couple of hours immediately post-FROPA on Thursday aftn/early
evening. This will continue to be refined in the coming days, and
marine interests should continue to pay close attention to this time
frame.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 310 AM EDT Sunday...

Record High Temps for 3/8 - 3/11

                 Record     Record     Record     Record
                High/Year  High/Year  High/Year  High/Year
Location          3/8        3/9        3/10       3/11
--------          ----      -----      ------     ------
Richmond        85 (2000)  82 (2009)  81 (2006)  82 (1990)
Norfolk         82 (2000)  82 (2000)  81 (2016)  82 (1990)
Salisbury       82 (2000)  77 (2000)  77 (2016)  76 (2000)
Eliz. City      84 (2000)  82 (2009)  82 (2016)  81 (2016)


Record High Min Temps for 3/8 - 3/11

                 Record     Record     Record     Record
                  High       High       High       High
                Min T/Year Min T/Year  Min T/Year Min T/Year
Location          3/8        3/9        3/10       3/11
--------          ----      -----      ------     ------
Richmond        61 (2009)  61 (1921)  63 (2006)  56 (1955)
Norfolk         63 (1946)  62 (1921)  62 (2016)  82 (1925)
Salisbury       57 (2009)  57 (1998)  60 (1909)  51 (1955)
Eliz. City      63 (1946)  60 (1964)  57 (2016)  58 (1967)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/SW
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...MAM