Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

947
FXUS61 KAKQ 160553
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1253 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Precipitation ends a little earlier Monday morning, with no
additional measurable rainfall expected after 12Z/7am.

Thursday has trended cooler along the coast with a potential
(weak) backdoor cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread, beneficial rainfall prevails tonight through
early Monday. Total rainfall will average 0.75"-1.50", with the
rain tapering off to drizzle from W to E overnight/early Monday.

2) Above average temperatures prevail from Tuesday-Friday as an
upper ridge remains in place across the southern tier of the
CONUS. Dry Tue-Wed, with some low end rain chances Thu-Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 945 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread, beneficial rainfall prevails tonight through
early Monday. Total rainfall will average 0.75"-1.50", with the
rain tapering off to drizzle from W to E overnight/early Monday.

The latest wx analysis shows a deep upper level trough over
central GA this evening, starting to phase with a northern
stream trough diving SE from the Great Lakes. At the surface,
primary low pressure was co-located with the upper low, but has
started to occlude with a secondary sfc trough extending NE
into the southern Appalachians out ahead of the upper system. Sfc
high pressure was centered over New England, leading to a
modest CAD setup across the local area this evening.
Temperatures as of 940 PM ranged from the lower 40s N to mid 40s
S.

Strong WAA in the 925-850mb layer has advected northward into
NE NC, and southern and central VA, leading to an increase in
the rain intensity this evening compared to earlier this
afternoon. As such, a steady moderate rain has overspread most
of the region this evening. This area of enhanced lift will
shift slowly to east by midnight, pushing offshore between
06-09Z. Rainfall totals as of 940 PM ranged from 0.5-1" across
most of the area with locally higher totals above 1" noted
across portions of central VA. A local minimum of 0.15-0.4" was
noted across far SE VA/NE NC. Given that several hours of
rainfall are still expected, storm total rainfall amounts of
0.75-1.50" across the area are still expected, with locally
lower totals possible across NE NC. Given that most of the CWA
is in either D1 (moderate) or D2 (severe) drought status, this
rain will be beneficial and will pose little to no flood threat
as most of it fall over a 6-12 hr timeframe. The sfc low moves
offshore after 06Z, with rain ending from W to E. Even at the
coast, the trends are a little faster with drying aloft such
that little additional QPF is expected after ~09Z/4 AM Monday
morning. It still looks like N to NE wind will prevail, keeping
low clouds (and possibly drizzle) lingering E of I-95 through
the remainder of the morning. Clouds will start to break up well
inland in the aftn, but may linger several hrs longer near the
coast. Have undercut NBM highs by a few degrees for areas along
and E of I-95 with more clouds, as well as the flow influenced
by Bay and Ocean water temperatures in the 30s. Highs Monday
range from the low- mid 50s in the far W, to only the low-mid
40s along the coast. A blustery NNE wind will make it feel quite
raw and cold along the coast. Dry Mon night with lows mainly
30-35F (locally in the upper 20s ern shore).


KEY MESSAGE 2...Above average temperatures prevail from Tuesday-
Friday as an upper ridge remains in place across the southern
tier of the CONUS. Dry Tue-Wed, with some low end rain chances
Thu-Fri.

A fairly flat upper level ridge will become anchored from Mexico to
Florida Tue-Thu, shifting east to Florida and the Bahamas late in
the week. An upper level trough over western Canada and the Pacific
NW will push east across the northern tier of the CONUS through the
week into next weekend. This pattern will allow for above average
temperatures and limit the potential for a strong backdoor cold
front- though there is still the potential for a weak boundary
to affect the region w/ onshore flow near the coast Thu-Fri.
Temperatures will be the warmest Wed-Fri for inland areas of
central/southern VA and interior NE NC with highs well into the
60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Near the coast,
and especially on the eastern shore, Wed could be the warmest
day, with cooler conditions Thu. In addition, some low- end
chances of rain are possible Thu-Fri, but at this time, there
is still a lot of uncertainty. For next weekend and beyond, the
pattern does show signs of breaking down, leading to temperatures
gradually dropping back closer to normal, particularly by
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EST Monday...

Rain is gradually tapering off from the W to E, with RIC now only
seeing light rain that will continue to lighten up. The rain will
continue to taper off across the area through 09-12z. CIGs remain in
IFR-LIFR conditions, expecting most terminals to see LIFR CIGs by
~08z (excluding ECG which will remain IFR), and likely remaining
through 15-18z. CIGs will likely remain MVFR through the afternoon,
perhaps improving to VFR at RIC by late afternoon. CIGs will finally
improve to VFR by late Monday evening to early Tuesday morning as
clouds thin. N winds will increase early this morning with gusts to
~20 kt inland and ~25 kt near the coast, remaining gusty through the
afternoon.

Outlook: Most areas will be dry/VFR Monday evening through midweek.
There is the possibility of patchy fog Monday night into Tuesday
morning. A weak backdoor cold front may affect the region Thursday-
Friday, possibly bringing a few showers and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Increasing winds  are expected tonight through Monday morning. A
Small Craft  Advisory has been issued for most of the local waters,
and a  Gale Warning has been late tonight into Monday morning for
the coastal waters south  of Cape Charles.

Starting off with lighter winds out of the south this afternoon
with high pressure offshore. Latest obs show 5-10kt over most
of the waters with a few locations showing 10-15kt over northern
waters. Winds remain at 5-10kt for the first part of the
evening as winds shift to become more onshore. Low pressure
progresses across southern portions of the area overnight then
deepens offshore as it pulls away to the NE early tomorrow
morning. Winds turn to the NNE around midnight tonight,
increasing to 20-25kt over the southern waters and 15-20kt in
the northern coastal waters and the bay. Winds continue to
increase as they turn to the N by early tomorrow morning. Looks
like wind speeds should peak in the few hours before and just
after sunrise at 25 to 30kt over southern coastal waters,
20-25kt in the bay/currituck sound and northern waters, and 10
to 15kt in the rivers. Local wind probs for 34kt gusts have
tightened up considerably since yesterday. Now showing the
highest probs (70- 75%) out near 20nm in the NC waters and
~25-50% in the remaining NC waters and just north of the VA/NC
border. The SCAs and Gale Warnings remain largely unchanged
since last night, with the exception of starting the SCAs for
the Currituck Sound and lower bay a little earlier, at 10pm.
With such a short ramp up period, did not see the need for a
preceding SCA ahead of the Gale Warning. Therefore, it is not
out of the question that the Gale Warning may need to be started
a few hours earlier should conditions ramp up a bit faster than
forecast. North winds decrease through the afternoon tomorrow
as the low pulls away dropping down to 5-10kt by late evening.
Seas increase from the south tonight, reaching 5-8ft in southern
waters tomorrow morning and 4-5ft N of Cape Charles. Waves will
be around 2ft. Swell coming out from the low will keep seas a
bit elevated even into tomorrow night. SCAs will likely need to
extend well into Tuesday to cover 5ft seas.

Lighter southerly flow of 5-10kt expected Tuesday as high pressure
slides overhead, then offshore. Gusty conditions are anticipated
Wednesday as a warm front lifts across the area. SCAs will likely be
needed for the rivers, bay, and sound, but forecast winds fall just
short of criteria over the coastal waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMC/LKB/RMM
AVIATION...KMC/RMM
MARINE...AC/MAM