Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

283
FXUS61 KAKQ 291856
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
256 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 18z Aviation Discussion.

No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry and pleasant conditions continue throughout the
weekend. There is a chance for showers across far southeastern
portions of the area on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry and pleasant conditions continue
throughout the weekend. There is a chance for showers across far
southeastern portions of the area on Monday.

An omega blocking pattern is expected to prevail through this
weekend and into early next week, with anomalous ridging over
central Canada and troughing off the CA/western US coast and over
the Canadian maritimes. This pattern will allow for troughing to
continue over the Northeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with
several cold fronts expected to push south across the region this
weekend into early next week.

The first cold front pushes south across the area tomorrow. Dry air
over the region and a strong northern stream will keep moisture
suppressed well to our south, leading to a dry frontal passage.
Temperatures on Saturday will range from the lower 70s NE to the
lower 80s S/SW. Saturday night/Sunday morning will likely be the
coolest night of the forecast period as high pressure builds
overhead, allowing for decent radiational cooling. Upper 40s are
possible for many inland locations with even pockets of mid to lower
40s possible for the typically colder spots across the Piedmont.
Closer to the coast, low temperatures will be in the 50s. High
temperatures will generally remain in the 70s on Sunday with mostly
sunny skies.

Another potent northern stream trough and cold front dives out of
Eastern Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the Northeast
CONUS Tuesday/Wednesday. There will be at least a chance for rain
showers on Monday across southeastern portions of the forecast area,
though confidence is low with dry air remaining in place across the
local area. This will not be a drought-buster by any stretch, will
overall QPF amounts expected to range from ~0.10"-0.25" at most.
Otherwise, expect high temperatures on Monday to hover around 80
degrees inland and the 70s closer to the coast.

Temperatures likely remain below average Tuesday and Wednesday
(highs in the 70s to around 80) before a gradual rebound to average
and potentially above average by the second half of the week as the
omega block begins to break down and heights rise over the eastern
US.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/29 TAF period. Mainly clear
skies/SKC is expected throughout this afternoon. High clouds
increase tonight into Saturday as a (dry) cold front drops south
across the area. Light and variable winds to start off the
period, becoming S-SW later this afternoon into tonight (~5
knots). Winds increase later Saturday morning and become N to
NNE in the wake of the front. Wind gusts of 20 knots are
possible by late morning-early afternoon Saturday.

Outlook: High probability of VFR conditions through this
weekend and into early next week. High pressure and VFR
conditions prevail Saturday night into Sunday. Another cold
front looks to slide across the region by Monday with a low
chance of passing light rain showers (highest chances SE). High
pressure builds NW of the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake
  Bay, Lower James River, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound
  for Saturday.

- Generally benign marine conditions are favored next week.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure over the region. This
area of high pressure is expected to move offshore into tonight,
allowing for winds to become S later this afternoon, increasing to
10-15 kt tonight. Winds become SW late tonight ahead of an
approaching cold front. Will note that while some CAMs have marginal
SCA conditions due to SW winds of 15-20 kt tonight across the Lower
Bay and Lower James River, confidence in reaching SCA criteria as
well as the short duration of the surge were too low to justify
SCAs. Otherwise, a cold front crosses the area from N to S Sat
morning. Winds become N 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt behind the
front across the Ches Bay with gusts up to 25 kt possible across the
Lower James River and Currituck Sound. As such, have issued SCAs for
the Ches Bay and Lower James beginning at 7 AM Sat and for the
Currituck Sound beginning at 1 PM. While more marginal, have also
issued SCAs due to a combination of gusts up to 25 kt and seas of 4-
5 ft across the coastal waters. Winds become NE Sat evening before
diminishing Sat night. As such, SCAs end at 10 PM Sat for the middle
bay and northern coastal waters and 1 AM Sun for the Lower James
River, lower bay, and Currituck Sound. SCAs linger through Sun
across the southern coastal waters due to NE winds allowing for seas
to remain elevated.

High pressure builds in behind the front Sat night into Sun,
bringing light winds. As the high moves offshore Sun night, SSW
winds increase to around 15 kt with gusts up to around 18 kt.
However, this surge looks sub-SCA at this time. Another period of
elevated N winds around 15 kt is possible Tue, however, confidence
is once again low in reaching SCA criteria.

Waves and seas were 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this afternoon.
Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 3-5 ft respectively Sat. Waves
subside Sat night, however, seas remain elevated into Mon. There
will be a moderate risk for rip currents over the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ630-631-650.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ632-634-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RMM