Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

268
FXUS61 KAKQ 151910
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
310 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook area has been expanded
  to include all but far southeast Virginia and northeast North
  Carolina on Sunday. Increasing chances for showers and storms
  presenting both a severe and flood risk for Sunday afternoon
  and evening

- Probabilities for Heat headlines have increased slightly over
  southern tier of counties, from Hampton Roads into Northeast
  NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable this afternoon into tonight with the potential for
isolated to widely scattered showers or storms.

2) Severe weather is possible on Sunday with SPC highlighting much
of the area in a Slight (2 out of 5) risk. Damaging wind gusts are
the main threat, but an isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out.
In addition, there is a heavy rain and flooding threat with WPC
highlighting much of the area in a Slight ERO.

3) Hot and humid on Monday ahead of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable this afternoon into tonight with the
potential for isolated to widely scattered showers or storms.

This afternoon, high pressure located over the eastern Great Lakes
continues to ridge southward, holding a weak frontal boundary south
of the VA/NC border. Isolated to widely scattered showers or storms
remain possible throughout this afternoon into this evening. The
best thunderstorm potential is general along and south of the US-460
corridor. Instability is much less impressive compared to yesterday,
with only ~1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across southern portions of the
forecast area. In addition, an onshore, NE wind (combined with cloud
cover) has kept temperatures cooler today with readings in the mid
to upper 80s.

Any convection tapers off after sunset. Overnight, remnant decaying
showers from the Ohio Valley may try to drift towards far
northern/western areas, but any measurable precipitation likely
holds off until the daylight hours of Sunday. Otherwise, lows will
range from the upper 60s to low 70s under a partly cloudy sky.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe storms are possible on Sunday with SPC
highlighting much of the area in a Slight (2 out of 5) risk.
Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but an isolated tornado
also cannot be ruled out. In addition, there is a heavy rain and
flooding threat with WPC highlighting much of the area in a Slight
ERO.

An unsettled to potentially active day is expected for Sunday. The
expansive upper ridge over the southern tier of the country begins
to breakdown as another shortwave trough digs across the Ohio
Valley.  The surface boundary pushes back north as a warm front,
opening the door for deep tropical moisture transport (PWATs
climbing to 2.3"+). Recent 12z high-res guidance (specifically the
3km NAM and RRFS) have hinted at a slower northward progression of
the warm front, potentially keeping northeastern portions of the
area in a bit of a wedge. In addition, morning showers and clouds
may limit instability, at least initially. Still, SW of the front a
very unstable airmass is expected with MLCAPE values climbing to
potentially 2000+ J/kg.

Widespread shower and thunderstorm development is expected later
Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. Deep layer shear of
~25 to 30 knots will support multi-cells and bowing segments
capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60+ mph and
even some isolated hail (despite poor mid-level lapse rates). In
addition, E- SE winds along the warm front and 0-1 km SRH
values of 150 to 200 will allow for potential rotation and an
isolated tornado threat. SPC has most of our Virginia counties
highlighted in a Slight Risk for severe storms, with a Marginal
Risk for our Maryland and North Carolina counties.

Heavy rainfall is also expected to be a threat on Sunday. Slow
moving or back building convection will produce torrential rainfall
rates. WPC has expanded the Slight Risk ERO to cover a majority of
the area. Scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible,
especially across urban and poor drainage areas. Convection
gradually weakens Sunday night.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of
the next cold front.

The hot, humid conditions look to peak on Monday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s. The hot
temperatures combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will
allow for heat indices of 105+ across southern/southeastern
portions of the area and 100-105 elsewhere. Heat Advisories will
likely be needed for at least our North Carolina and southeast
Virginia counties. Scattered showers and storms are also
expected Monday afternoon/evening along the frontal boundary.
Drier and slightly cooler conditions arrive Tuesday into
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...

Predominantly VFR is expected through the forecast period at
all sites. A front is stalled south of the local area, serving
as a focus for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms this
afternoon into this evening. The highest potential for a shower
or storm to cause any flight restrictions will be at ECG where
a PROB30 remains in the forecast. Remnant showers may try to
approach far northern/western portions of the area late tonight
into Sunday morning, but confidence in any direct impacts at the
TAF sites is low. Light and variable to light easterly winds
are expected overnight, some patchy ground fog cannot be ruled
out, but confidence is too low to include in the forecast. More
widespread showers and storms develop Sunday afternoon.

Outlook: Widespread showers and storms Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night will bring the potential for localized sub-VFR
conditions as well as the potential for strong to damaging wind
gusts. Unsettled conditions continue on Monday afternoon and
evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Mainly dry/VFR
conditions return through midweek as high pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and
coastal waters N of Cape Charles Sunday afternoon into Sunday night
for increasing southerly winds and building seas.

- Showers and storms are also expected Sunday, some of which could
be strong to severe.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through early Sunday.
Winds this afternoon are E-NE 10-15 kt with high pressure N of the
area. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range. Winds shift to the SE/ESE
tonight and then S later Sunday. The pressure gradient is expected
to tighten some as a weak front approaches and Small Craft Advisory
conditions are expected to develop in the Chesapeake Bay early
Sunday afternoon and the ocean by the late afternoon/evening hours.
Sustained winds will generally be 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt
(highest N of Cape Charles on the ocean). Seas briefly build to 3-5
ft and will again be highest N of Cape Charles. Showers/storms could
also bring locally higher winds. Winds and seas subside by mid-
morning Monday. Thereafter, light flow and benign conditions are
favored into the middle and end of next week.

Rip Currents: Despite the onshore flow, a low rip current risk
continues today. Will continue with a moderate risk for the northern
beaches of Chincoteague and Ocean City Sunday as southerly winds
increase and seas build.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...SW