Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

687
FXUS61 KAKQ 241909
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
309 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SCA added for the southern Ches Bay and lower James River through
early Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through the middle of
next week.

2) Elevated tidal anomalies continue tonight into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with seasonable temperatures
through the middle of next week.

GOES water vapor channels depict a highly amplified upper ridge
that extends from the central US northward toward James Bay in
Canada. This ridge will be strong enough to keep the upstream
troughing over the Desert SW from getting east of the Plains
states through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, light
northerly flow aloft will continue across the local area through
Sunday, before weak shortwave energy passes through and moves
off the SE coast Sunday night, which will allow the longwave
pattern to dampen to some extent with the ridge becoming broader
and flatter with the axis in vicinity of the Great Lakes. At
the surface, 1035mb high pressure is centered over eastern PA
and NJ this afternoon. Partly cloudy with SCT to BKN
cumulus/stratocumulus. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s
with a NE wind of 5-10 mph inland, and 10-15 mph with gusts up
to 20 mph toward the coast.

The high continues to gradually build south and into the local
area tonight. For tonight into early Sunday morning,
temperatures should be slightly lower with mid 30s NW and upper
30s to lower 40s for most of central and south-central VA.
Patchy frost is expected for areas to the N and W of Richmond,
and interior portions of Dorchester and Wicomico counties in MD.
However, coverage and overall threat is not quite enough to
warrant a Frost Advisory at this time. As the high continues to
settle in from the north Sunday, cloud cover should be less, but
a period of SCT-BKN cumulus are still likely along and S of
I-64. Temperatures warm a few degrees with highs in the mid 60s
to near 70 F. Sunday night/early Monday morning will likely see
the greatest potential for a more widespread frost spreading
east from the piedmont to interior SE VA as better decoupling is
expected. Continued the same thinking as the previous shift to
go a few degrees (or several degrees in some areas) colder than
NBM, with mid 30s forecast for much of the piedmont and and mid-
upper 30s for interior SE VA.

Warmer Monday ahead of the next (dry) front, then slightly
cooler into midweek and staying dry. The 24/12z ECMWF
ensemble/GEFS chance for just .01" of rain through mid week is
basically none, with some low probs showing up in southeastern
portions of the area later in the week into the following
weekend, but when switching the threshold to 0.1" there are
practically no probs through the end of the month.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated tidal anomalies continue tonight into
Sunday.

Coastal Flood Advisories continue until 4 PM for portions of
the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore as well as the south bank
of the Potomac. Tonight`s tide cycle will be the lower of the
two upcoming high tides. Expecting mostly nuisance-level
flooding tonight, though Lewisetta and Bishops Head will come
close to minor thresholds. Persistent NE winds near the mouth of
the bay, along with slowly decreasing swells have resulted in
only a slow decrease in tidal anomalies, especially for the
middle and upper Ches Bay. Sunday`s high tide will likely exceed
minor flood thresholds in some of these areas. Additional
Coastal Flood Advisories are possible as increasing astronomical
tides counteract decreasing anomalies.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...

1035mb high pressure was centered over eastern PA/NJ as of 18z.
VFR with bands of CU/SC (bases of 4-5kft). The wind was NE
8-12kt, with gusts to ~20kt along the coast. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail for the 24/18z TAF period. The wind will
remain NE tonight and become very light inland and 5-10kt along
the coast with FEW-SCT clouds. The wind remains NE Sunday as
the high gradually builds southward. Less cloud cover is
expected Sunday and should mainly be confined to the
southeastern terminals.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue Sunday night through later next
week. Lighter N to NE winds are expected on Monday. Elevated NE
winds return Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated winds and seas will continue through the weekend,
  especially across the central and southern waters, with
  elevated seas lingering into early next week for the southern
  waters.

1034mb high pressure over eastern PA/NY continues to slowly
build southward this afternoon. Low pressure well to the south
is allowing for elevated NE winds to continue across the local
waters. Winds are mainly 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, highest
across the ocean and southern Ches Bay/James. Waves are 2-3 ft
with 3-4 ft at the mouth of the bay. Seas are 3-5 ft N and
remain 6-9 ft S where NE winds are strongest.

Winds in the southern Ches Bay/lower James have been very slow
to subside today and are hovering near SCA thresholds. The
latest guidance shows winds roughly holding steady at their
current level this evening and even bumping up a few knots
tonight. Therefore, have issued Small Craft Advisories for the
southern bay and James through 7 AM Sunday. SCA headlines remain
in effect for the mouth of the bay and nearshore coastal waters
tonight. High pressure will move over the region on Monday,
finally allowing winds/seas to subside. The reprieve looks to be
short-lived unfortunately, with new high pressure building into
the Great Lakes region by midweek. In this type of setup, even
very weak low pressure/troughing off the Southeast coast will
result in elevated NE winds returning to the region. Seas will
slowly decrease from N to S tomorrow into Monday but may not
fall below 5 ft for the southern waters before the next bout
with increasing NE winds allows seas to build once again.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ075-077.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-639-650-
     652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...RHR