Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

187
FXUS61 KAKQ 021931
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
231 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated full discussion. Slightly higher confidence in rainfall
(potentially locally heavy) later Thursday and especially
Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather continues into the middle of this week with above
average temperatures.

2) Rain chances increase Thursday into Friday, with the greatest
chances likely Friday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, although
uncertainty remains regarding rainfall amounts and placement.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues into the middle of this week
with above average temperatures.

High pressure gradually shifts offshore Tuesday as upper-level
ridging builds across the eastern US. This will result in dry
conditions and a warming trend through midweek. Mostly sunny skies
are expected for Tuesday with highs ranging from the lower to mid
70s. Temperatures warm further Wednesday as low level flow becomes
takes on a southerly component, with highs reaching the mid to upper
70s across much of the area. A few locations across interior
southern VA and northeast NC could approach 80 degrees. Temperatures
will likely be somewhat cooler along the immediate coastline due to
an onshore wind.

Skies gradually clear out this evening into tonight, though some
patchy fog cannot be ruled out as we approach sunrise Tuesday AM.
Temperatures drop back into the 40s for most areas tonight. Mostly
clear skies and light winds are expected Tuesday night with lows
generally in the 40s to lower 50s. Increasing moisture and clouds
ahead of the next system should result in a milder Wednesday night,
with lows mainly in the 50s to around 60.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase Thursday into Friday, with the
greatest chances likely Friday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible,
although uncertainty remains regarding rainfall amounts and
placement.

The primary forecast challenge for later this week continues to
revolve around the timing of an approaching upper trough and
associated cold front. Latest 12z deterministic guidance has come
into slightly better agreement, with both the GFS and ECMWF starting
to favor Friday as the primary period for precipitation. Of note,
the GFS has now trended a bit slower with the upper trough compared
to previous runs.

While some showers still look possible on Thursday into Thursday
night, the more widespread precipitation appears increasingly likely
to occur Friday as the front slowly progresses across the area. Both
the 12z GFS and ECMWF depict a more substantial rainfall signal
Friday, particularly across eastern and central portions of the
area. The ECMWF even depicts localized QPF maxima exceeding 2
inches. However, considerable uncertainties remains regarding the
exact placement and magnitude of the heavier precipitation,
especially given the potentially convective nature of the rainfall.

Although confidence is increasing Friday being the primary
precipitation period, ensemble guidance has been less aggressive
with rainfall amounts compared to some of the deterministic
solutions. Thus, would be hesitant to place too much emphasis on
the localized QPF maximum at this time. Still, the potentially for
locally heavy rainfall will at least need to monitored, particularly
for E/SE portions of the area. In addition, a few thunderstorms will
be possible Thursday night into Friday, although the degree of
instability remains uncertain.

Temperatures will remain above normal ahead of the front, with only
modest cooling expected behind it. Generally drier conditions are
expected for the weekend, although some uncertainty remains
regarding the progression of the front/potential lingering rain
along the immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions prevail throughout this afternoon and into the
first part of the night. Mainly SCT to BKN clouds this afternoon
~10 to 15kft AGL, with gradual clearing anticipated from W to E
later this afternoon into this evening. Winds are generally
light (~5 knots) with an easterly component. There is a bit of
an increasing signal for fog and/or stratus late tonight into
Tuesday morning, but confidence is not high enough to include
IFR in the forecast at this time.

Outlook: Dry weather and prevailing VFR conditions are expected
through at least Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes
Thursday into Friday, but confidence remains low on coverage
and any potential restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevails through mid-week before a potential
weather system approaches.

Afternoon weather analysis shows broad high pressure centered over
the area. Winds are currently light ~10kt out of the NE and seas are
between 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. Through
the rest of the afternoon and into Wednesday these benign marine
conditions are forecasted to persist. Only major change is winds
will shift out of the east on Tuesday, however, they stay around 5-
10kt with an occasional gust upwards of 15kt. By Wednesday, high
pressure will be offshore as low pressure and its cold front
approaches from the west. Ahead of the cold front winds are
forecasted to be out of the SSE beginning Thursday. Winds are likely
to remain sub-SCA as SST have cooled off and less mixing is likely
to occur. The main threat for any SCA will likely come from wave
heights, as sells approach from the SE. However, confidence is low
due to the nature of the coastline likely protecting the area from
the swells and the direction of the wind.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...HET