Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

588
FXUS61 KAKQ 131139
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
739 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussions.

Chances have increased for SCA conditions on Monday after a
stronger frontal passage.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Continued unsettled and humid today. Widespread showers and a
few thunderstorms early, then scattered afternoon showers/storms
possible. Mainly dry with skies clearing tonight.


2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower
humidity Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures warm back above normal late
in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance
for rain Fri-Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued unsettled and humid today. Widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms early, then scattered afternoon
showers/storms possible. Mainly dry with skies clearing tonight.

The latest WX analysis indicates a sfc warm front from northern
VA to the MD eastern shore, with a sfc trough farther south
across the VA/NC piedmont. The next batch of showers has
developed across south-centra//central VA along the sfc trough,
with another area of showers and some tstms across the NE
portions of the FA near the warm front. There is decent low
level wind shear near the warm front and less CIN so will be
watching the eastern shore closely through the next few hrs for
any potential stronger storms or quick spin- up circulations.
Otherwise, just locally heavy rain through around 8-9 AM (with
PWATs 2"+) before shower/storms diminish and push offshore and
off to the NE as the warm front lifts away from the local area.
Expect a lull in the precip for a few hrs, with some
redevelopment likely this aftn as the early AM clouds lift and
scatter out. Models show ML CAPE this aftn of 1000-1500 J/Kg,
highest E of I-95. Highest chances will be across the SE, where
40-60% PoPs are forecast for a few hrs, though the CAMs also
have honed in on some development across the mountains, so will
have 20-30% PoPs moving in from the NW as well. There is no SPC
outlook today but an isolated stronger storm is possible, along
with locally heavy rain. Highs today generally in the mid-upper
80s. Drying out after sunset, with lows mostly in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly
lower humidity Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures warm back above normal
late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next
chance for rain Fri-Sat.

The upper level flow becomes NW on Monday as a strong upper level
trough dives SE from the Great Lakes and pushes off the NE and mid-
Atlantic coast Monday night, with an upper level ridge slowly
expanding NE from the lower MS Valley. This looks strong enough to
drive the sfc cold front well south of the CWA Monday, and bring
significantly lower dew points that are more typical of September.
The models continue to depict a strong shortwave passing through
the region on Monday, so do expect to see a 3-6 hr window where
clouds increase and even a few isolated showers develop on
Monday before the much drier air surges in from the NNW during
the afternoon. Best chance for seeing a few showers with the
front will be across the far SE where higher dew pts will linger
through the mid aftn hrs. Otherwise, becoming breezy in the
immediate wake of the front with significantly drier air and
deep mixing aided by the shortwave aloft. With the N-NE win
direction, expect to see some gusts to 25-30 mph at the coast in
SE VA and NE NC. Highs will be in the low-mid 80s for most.

As high pressure builds in behind the front Monday night, a
pleasant night is expected Monday night/Tue AM as winds diminish
inland (staying elevated near the coast). Even the NBM now shows
lows into the 50s for most areas away from the coast, so expect
to see low-mid 50s across most of the piedmont, and 55-60F
elsewhere (locally 65-70F at the coast). The upper level ridge
becomes nearly stationary across the TN Valley Tue-Wed as a weak
upper level trough develops off the SE Coast, with some models
placing this feature as far south as Florida. This pattern will
allow strong sfc high pressure (~1030 mb), to set up from off
the New England coast SW into the Carolina coastal plain through
midweek. Highs will stay mostly in the low-mid 80s through Wed
with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at the
immediate coast). The models now mostly have the upper tough to
our S/SE potentially amplifying late in the week which would
retrograde the ridge back towards the lower MS Valley. Overall,
a decent amount of uncertainty as to how this evolves, but the
forecast will continue to show temperatures climbing back to
above normal for mid- September, with some low-end rain chances
Fri-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 AM EDT Sunday...

Showers have been weakening over the past 1-2 hrs, and will
mostly slide off the coast after ~14z. Still periodic IFR-MVFR
CIGs early this morning, with a gradual improvement thereafter.
Light S-SW winds shift to the W-SW and remain 10 kt or less. All
areas should see conditions improve to mainly VFR this aftn,
but have included PROB30 groups for aftn SHRA/TSRA at
ORF/PHF/ECG (chance is too low at RIC/SBY for now). Drying out
this evening and becoming SCT-SKC tonight with light winds.

Outlook: Mainly dry Monday, but as a front drops south through
the area, expect elevated N-NE winds (especially at the coast
with some gusts to 20-25kt possible). Staying dry Tue- Wed with
lighter winds except locally breezy SE VA and NE NC along the
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 125 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are favored through tonight.

- Small Craft Advisories are possible with increased NE winds behind
a front late Monday morning through Monday evening.


A warm front is lifting through the region early this morning. Winds
to the south of the front are fairly light with latest obs showing
south winds of 5 to 10 knots. Buoy obs show seas of 2-3ft and waves
around 1ft. S to SW winds will stay in the 5-10kt range today and
3ft seas will diminish to 2ft. Light winds turn to the west late
tonight before a cold front pushes through on Monday.

Guidance continues to trend on the stronger side with that front for
Monday, with better post-frontal CAA on NNE winds Monday afternoon
and night. Latest local wind probabilities show an uptick for
potential sustained winds => 18kt in the Ches Bay, with
probabilities now in the 60 to 90% range late Monday morning into
early evening. For nearshore coastal waters, high-res guidance shows
a 30-50% chance of 25 kt gusts during that same period.
Probabilities and the first look at high-res CAM guidance also
indicate a brief secondary surge is possible Monday night into
Tuesday morning, especially in the lower Bay and lower James River.
Increased NE winds favor building seas, likely to ~4ft for most of
the coastal zones. 5-6 ft seas remain possible for the southern
coastal waters during this timeframe, with those 5-6 ft seas
potentially lingering in the 20-60 nm offshore zones from Monday
night into mid-week. Onshore winds, mostly 10kt or less, continues
Tues through mid to late week as high pressure hangs out to the
north.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...AC/MAM