Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

603
FXUS61 KAKQ 302332
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
732 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

- Growing confidence in a late summer heat wave building across
  the area Monday through Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle
portion of the week with increasing chances for showers and storms
by late week.

2) Cooler temperatures return over Labor Day weekend
with decreasing precipitation chances during the second half of the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 725 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle
portion of the week with increasing chances for showers and storms
by late week.

Evening weather analysis showed strong upper ridging over the
southern Plains with a weak shortwave passing by to our north,
and sfc high pressure gradually shifting offshore. Additionally,
a large area of cloud cover was noted from SE VA/NE NC and
extending offshore due to an inverted trough offshore. A few
isolated showers were noted across southern portions of NE NC
with additional isolated showers approaching the NW/N portions
of the FA. However, this convection is expected to weaken
quickly with the loss of diurnal instability after sunset.
Otherwise, partly cloudy skies continue through tonight with
lows in the lower 70s for most (mid 70s along the coast and
localized upper 60s possible).

The main story for the next few days will be warming
temperatures and potential Heat Advisories by Wednesday/Thursday.
The above mentioned strong upper level ridge will expand
eastward over the Ohio Valley and into the Mid- Atlantic early
this week. Warm advection and deep mixing will allow for
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s on Monday and
Tuesday (locally upper 90s on Tuesday). Max heat indices on
Monday and Tuesday should generally average 100 to 104 due to
deep mixing keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70.
Subsidence under the the upper ridge will cap most convective
development, but an isolated aftn/evening storm is possible on
the MD Eastern Shore on both Monday and Tuesday. However,
confidence in this is very low.

The ridge peaks in strength Wednesday before flattening later in the
week. Wednesday will see high temperatures likely in the mid to
upper 90s for many inland locations. The NBM continues to show 100F
readings across southwest portions of the area, but this is likely
too warm and is a known bias. Still, Heat Advisories may be needed
for at least southern and southeastern portions of the area on
Wednesday, and potentially even the I-95 Corridor/Richmond Metro.
Heights start to fall a bit on Thursday and especially on Friday as
the ridge gradually breaks down. An upper level trough is progged to
track from the Great Lakes into New England late this week and push
a cold front toward the Mid-Atlantic region. Thursday may be the
hottest day of the period due to heating ahead of the front and a
slight increase in humidity. Highs on Thursday will range from the
mid to upper 90s for most inland locations. Heat Advisories may be
needed for much of the area on Thursday. At this time, model
consensus shows the front crossing the area sometime from late
Friday-Saturday morning as low pressure deepens near Nova Scotia.
Isolated afternoon/evening storms are possible (mainly N of I-64) on
Thursday with storm chances expanding to the entire area on Friday
as the front gets closer to the area.  AI/machine learning tools
continue to hint at a severe weather potential on Thursday and
Friday, but this will ultimately depend on convective coverage.
Given how hot it will be, there will likely be a localized damaging
wind threat with any storms that do form.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures return over Labor Day weekend
with decreasing precipitation chances during the second half of the
weekend.

The upper trough is progged to amplify off the Mid-Atlantic coast
this weekend as high pressure tries to build in from the north. This
will result in onshore flow, cooler temps, and decreasing precip
chances through the weekend. There could still be a fair bit of
cloud cover (especially near the coast) with the onshore flow. Highs
will generally be in the 80s with lower humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
the 00z TAF period with generally light and variable winds. An
isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of ECG over
the next couple of hours, but overall chances are low (PoP
<15%). Otherwise, any additional light showers across central VA
should remain north of RIC. A thick cirrus deck across far SE
VA/NE NC this evening should gradually move offshore overnight.
Meanwhile, additional mid-level clouds are expected to move in
from the NW overnight. As such, most locations remain SCT
through the night with CIGs generally above 10000 ft. SCT CU are
expected to develop Mon afternoon (4000-5000 ft CIGs).
Additionally, there is a low chance for a few isolated storms
across the Lower MD Eastern Shore including SBY (15-25% PoPs)
during the afternoon. However, confidence is too low to reflect
in the TAFs at this time. Furthermore, some model guidance shows
patchy fog across portions of the Lower MD Eastern Shore, far SE
VA, and interior portions of NE NC late tonight into early Mon
morning (8-12z). However, confidence in fog at the terminals is
too low to reflect in the TAFs with the exception of SBY.
Otherwise, winds become SE 5-10 kt Mon afternoon.

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions through Wednesday.
Shower and storm chances begin to increase Thursday
afternoon/evening (and especially Friday) at all terminals ahead
of the next cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 205 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure translates offshore with sub-advisory southerly flow
  returning to the region through much of the week.

Surface high pressure is moving over the region this afternoon with
yesterday`s weak front continuing to lose definition across eastern
NC. Winds have mostly switched to southerly but remain locally SE or
E close to the coast and in the lower Bay/James River as
sea/bay/river breeze circulations strengthen with peak heating.
Waves are around 1 ft with seas 2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft in the 20-
60nm zones. Latest guidance continues to show a brief increase in
winds to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt this evening, mainly for the
Ches Bay and adjacent Atlantic coastal waters. A few gusts may
exceed 20 kt in these areas before winds become SW and decrease
below 10 kt after midnight. High pressure will dominate the weather
pattern over much of the upcoming week with sub-advisory conditions
expected. A cold front will approach the region Thursday into Friday
with strengthening flow ahead of and (especially) behind the
boundary next weekend. Shower and storm chances will ramp up during
the late week period ahead of the front. Waves will stay in the 1-2
ft range with seas mainly 2-3 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/ERI/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR