Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

755
FXUS61 KAKQ 071141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
641 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and becoming seasonably cool this weekend through the
middle of next week.

2) The weather pattern potentially becomes more amplified later
next week with low-end rain chances returning follow by a brief
surge of colder air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and becoming seasonably cool this weekend
through the middle of next week.

An upper low is centered over the eastern Great Lakes early
this morning. Meanwhile, the shortwave trough and frontal
boundary that produced yesterdays heavy rain and tstms is now
well offshore. Drier air has been slow to move in from the N and
areas of fog and stratus have developed, particularly from
central VA southward into interior NE NC as well as the lower MD
Eastern Shore. Fog/stratus should gradually lift and scatter
from N-S as drier air filters in from the N through sunrise.

Cooler and drier air advects into the area today behind the
secondary cold front, with high pressure building to the W. High
temperatures settle back to near seasonal averages. High
temperatures this weekend will be in the low to mid 60s, rising
to the mid to upper 60s early next week, with potential for ~70F
on Tuesday for a large portion of the area, with similar values
Wednesday. Low temperatures late tonight/early Sunday morning
will be in the mid to upper 30s inland and lower/mid 40s along
the coast. Patchy frost is possible, particularly in the
Piedmont and counties that have already ended their growing
season, but there could be some frost into interior portions of
S-central VA and NE NC as well. Will continue to monitor trends
for areas where the growing season has not yet ended. 07/00z
ensemble guidance is continuing to show dry weather persisting
at least into the middle of next week. A NW wind will become
breezy today across the Eastern Shore as the upper low tracks
from the eastern Great Lakes to southern New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The weather pattern potentially becomes more
amplified later next week with low-end rain chances returning
followed by a brief surge of colder air.

07/00z EPS, GEFS, and CMC GEPS are all depicting an anomalous
500mb trough developing across the Southeast and southern Mid-
Atlantic by Thursday-Friday of next week. Low-end rain chances
return later Thursday/Thursday night with the potential for
developing low pressure ahead of the deepening trough.
Confidence in details is low at this forecast range, but most
ensemble guidance has at least a 40- 60% chc of receiving at
least 0.1" of rain (best chc N), with negligible probs for
exceeding 0.5". A surge of colder air follows with below average
temperatures favored by Friday-Saturday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM EST Saturday...

Patchy fog/stratus has dissipated quickly over the past few
hours with VFR conditions prevailing at all sites as of 12z.
However, there is a patch of MVFR cigs ~2kft that has developed
near ORF, so brief MVFR cigs are possible at ORF through ~13z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail the remainder of today
into tonight. A NW wind should generally be 8-12kt today and
locally 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt at SBY. The wind will then
become very light out of the NW tonight as high pressure builds
in from the W.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue Sunday into the
middle of next week. Some additional weak/dry cool air
advection will bring gusty NW breezes on Sunday, especially
across the Eastern Shore. Some additional periods of breezy NNW
winds with weak cold frontal passages are expected early Monday
and again on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most of the local
  waters through the early afternoon today as N-NW winds
  increase to 15-25 kt.

- Another period of elevated NW flow is expected tonight into
  Sunday morning and additional Small Craft Advisories are
  likely. Winds turn to the SW Sunday and then NW again Monday
  behind a cold front.

Winds have shifted to the NW early this morning, behind an
earlier cold front passage. Winds speeds are currently sub-SCA,
but upstream observations and forecast/model data indicate
elevated winds are coming over the next 2-3 hours. These winds
are expected to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt,
peaking in the 4 AM-10 AM timeframe. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect for all of the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters, and
Currituck Sound. While winds will be a bit lower on the rivers,
there is enough confidence in frequent 20-25 kt gusts to add the
lower James to the ongoing SCA. Seas increase to 3-5 ft in the
0-20 nm zones and 5-6 ft in the 20-60 nm zones, with 2-4 ft
waves in the bay. With winds having a nonzero westerly
component, seas will struggle to build much higher than this.
Winds diminish to ~15 kt this afternoon as high pressure nudges
into the area from the west. However, the pressure gradient
remains more compressed in the northern bay and have extended
the SCA N of New Point Comfort through Sunday morning. Have also
extended the SCA for the coastal waters through Sunday morning
due to a continuation of the 5 ft seas. Additional SCAs are
likely to be issued for the lower bay late tonight as another
surge in winds drops across the local waters, but will hold off
on extending the ongoing headlines due to the relative lull in
winds this afternoon and evening.

High pressure situates south of the area Sunday and winds
should shift to the W by Sunday afternoon and then SW by the
evening hours. Winds speeds also diminish with sub-SCA
conditions by the afternoon as well. Additional periods of
elevated winds are possible again Sunday night (in SW flow) and
then Monday morning-afternoon (in W-NW flow) behind another cold
front. SCAs are again possible. Sub- SCA/generally benign
conditions return Tuesday through Thursday. A stronger system
could affect the waters late next week, but overall confidence
is low.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630-631-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ632>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ639.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW