Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

583
FXUS61 KAKQ 111829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
229 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
WPC has expanded the Day 2 Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall
for areas along I-95 Saturday-Saturday Night to now include the
NW piedmont.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled and humid through Sunday as a frontal boundary
lingers near the region, bringing scattered to numerous showers,
thunderstorms, and localized heavy rain.

2) Dry with seasonable temperatures early next week, with
temperatures warming above normal by midweek as an upper ridge
builds back into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled and humid through Sunday as a frontal
boundary lingers near the region, bringing scattered to numerous
showers, thunderstorms, and localized heavy rain.

A cold front has slowly dropped southward across the forecast area
today, and extends across southern VA and is slightly buckled across
NE NC. Satellite imagery is highlighting increasing cloud cover
across the northern half of the area and partly cloudy to mostly
clear skies across southern VA and NE NC. There is a relatively
sharp temperature gradient today due to the aforementioned cloud
cover. Current highs are in the lower 90 to spotty mid 90s (NE NC)
across the south, with northern areas measuring temperatures in the
upper 70s (mainly Eastern Shore) to the low-mid 80s.

SPC has maintained the Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for areas along and
south of I-64 (excluding the coast) as the boundary slowly moves
southward across the area this evening into tonight. The front will
be the focal point of the convection, and local radar is already
detecting some development across south-central VA, which are now
right on the cusp of Lunenburg and Mecklenburg counties. SPC
mesoanalysis is depicting good instability from generally the Tri-
Cities area and south, which is the best environment for any severe
is depicted by the Marginal Risk. Shear is not overly impressive,
but with steep low level lapse rates, isolated wet microbursts
cannot be ruled out this afternoon and this evening. The front
continues to sink south tonight, with most of the showers/storms
ending overnight. There continues to be a good signal for low
stratus and possible some fog across the piedmont overnight. Have
maintained mention of fog in these areas, though exactly how far
east this potential fog creeps is still somewhat uncertain. Humid
with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s south, with somewhat drier
air to the north where lows drop into the mid 60s.

Widespread precipitation chances peak Saturday afternoon/night, as
the stalled boundary lifts back north as a warm front, along with a
more pronounced mid-level shortwave disturbances push across the
area. Forecast soundings show high precipitable water values, modest
instability (skinny CAPE profile), and weak steering flow, which
should yield efficient warm rainfall processes and additional
localized hydro concerns (supported by an area-wide WPC ERO Marginal
Risk and a localized upgrade to Slight for portions of the I-95
corridor, including metro RIC. Despite the increasing confidence
that localized flooding is possible somewhere in our forecast area,
these still remains uncertainty in the exact locations, so have
decided to not go with a Flood Watch for Saturday/Saturday night at
this time. The HREF, which typically provides a good signal for
areas where the heaviest rainfall/highest amounts, is not honing in
on any specific area at this time, but will likely start to once we
get closer to the event on Saturday evening/night. Considerable
cloud cover will keep a lid on Saturday highs to the low to mid 80s
N, but highs reach into the upper 80s SE. There may even be some
weak CAD, potentially keeping far NW zones even cooler (but still
very humid). The boundary washes out Sunday, leading to noticeably
lower convective coverage for the NW 1/2 of the area, but PoPs
remain high chc to likely for the SE.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry with seasonable temperatures early next week,
with temperatures warming above normal by midweek as an upper ridge
builds back into the region.

The upper level flow becomes NW on Monday as a strong upper level
trough dives SE from the Great Lakes and pushes off the NE and mid-
Atlantic coast Monday night, with an upper level ridge slowly
expanding NE from the lower MS Valley. This looks strong enough to
drive the sfc cold front south of the CWA Monday, and bring
significantly lower dew pts more typical of September. As high
pressure builds in behind the front, we are forecasting mostly sunny
skies with highs in the 80s Monday. A pleasant night Monday
night/Tue AM is on tap, with lows mostly in the low-mid 60s and some
50s possible across the piedmont and interior MD eastern shore due
to possible radiational cooling. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm
chances gradually tick back up mid-to-late week as heat and moisture
start to return as the upper level ridge expands E-NE to the TN
Valley and central/southern Appalachians. Temperatures are also
forecast to climb back to slightly above normal for mid-September,
with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s and lows mid-late week.
Overnight lows will be more reflective of the time of year, dropping
into the 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

A front has dropped across SBY and just south of RIC, and
intermittent to prolonged periods of MVFR CIGs have been prevailing
at these two terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail at PHF,
ORF, and ECG, with partly cloudy skies and lighter northerly winds
prevailing. Isolated to scattered showers are possible this
afternoon, with the highest confidence at RIC and ECG. Have updated
the PROB30 at these terminals to a TEMPO, while TEMPOs have also
been added for PHF and ORF. After any convection trends downward
overnight, areas north of the front (mainly in the piedmont) will
likely see IFR to LIFR CIGs and possibly some fog. Have decided to
put a prevailing line at RIC to reflect this increasing confidence
in this scenario. MVFR CIGs are possible at ORF and PHF as well.
While Saturday morning looks to be mostly dry, shower and
thunderstorms will start to develop by midday to early afternoon and
become widespread through tomorrow night. Winds will generally be
between 5-10 kts of the north-northeast today, becoming easterly
tonight and tomorrow in the wake of the front.

The frontal boundary gradually lifts back north later Saturday-
Saturday night/early Sunday. A high chance for showers/storms is
currently forecast from late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Periodic IFR-LIFR VSBY restrictions in heavy rain will be possible
during this timeframe. Remaining unsettled Sunday, with the highest
shower/storm coverage across SE VA/NE NC. Becoming dry and mainly
VFR by Monday with NE winds.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A period of generally benign marine conditions is favored from
this weekend through Monday morning.

- Low-end SCAs are possible with NE winds behind a front late Monday-
Monday night.

A weak cold front has pushed through the area and is located just
south of local waters this afternoon. Winds have turned to the NNE
and latest obs show breezy conditions near 15kt sustained and a few
gusts close to 20kt. Seas are around 2ft and waves in the bay/rivers
are 1-2ft.

The flow becomes E then SE tonight into Saturday, with winds
generally 10-15 kt (highest north) through Saturday night as the
front moves back north as a warm front. Onshore flow should be able
to help seas build to 3ft tomorrow and perhaps even close to 4ft off
the MD coast. Winds become S-SW at ~10 kt on Sunday. Sub-SCA marine
conditions are favored through early Monday. Another front is
expected to cross the marine area on Monday, with a wind shift to
the NE following the passage. This front appears to be a bit
stronger, with some of the 12z models showing the potential for low-
end SCA conditions behind the front late Monday. Winds subside and
shift to the east Tue. Local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds
have increased again and show widespread ~50% probs Monday afternoon
through late Monday night and even a period of close to 90% near the
Mouth of the Bay. SCA level seas are possible (mainly south) by late
Monday-Monday night as winds become NE.

The rip current risk will remain low today, with the northern
beaches bumping up to moderate on Saturday as flow becomes onshore.
A low rip current risk returns to all beaches on Sunday.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...AC/ERI