Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

549
FXUS61 KAKQ 231058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
658 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Josephine has weakened and is no longer a Subtropical
  cyclone.

- Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended through tonight`s
  high tide cycle for most of the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through the
middle of next week.

2) Elevated tidal anomalies persist through tonight with minor
tidal flooding forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with seasonable temperatures
through the middle of next week.

As Josephine interacted with a cold front last evening, the
circulation has weakened considerably while pushing E to
Atlantic Canada and is now no longer a subtropical storm. The
upper level flow depicts an amplified pattern, with anomalous
ridging over the central CONUS, and the downstream low spinning
off the coast of Maine and into Atlantic Canada. The sfc cold
front is diving south into the local area early this morning,
and is expected to weaken into a trough as it crosses the region
later today. Ahead of the boundary, the sky is clear and with
light winds, decoupling has allowed temperatures to drop mostly
into the 40-45F range, but ranging from as as low as the mid 30s
over much of interior southern VA and NE NC to the lower 50s at
the immediate coast. Patchy frost is likely in the most
sheltered areas of southern VA through ~8 AM, but coverage is
not enough to warrant any Advisories.

Otherwise, ~1030mb sfc high pressure centered over Ontario and
Quebec, will build SE into eastern NY/interior New England by
tonight. This setup will lead to increasing N to NE winds later
this morning, and an increase in low level moisture later today,
especially for areas closer to the coast. Model soundings show
enough moisture underneath the subsidence inversion to support
SCT-BKN stratocumulus by late morning/aftn for most of the CWA
(highest cloud cover for SE VA and NE NC). In addition, it will
become a bit breezy with gusts to 15-20 mph inland and 20-30 mph
near the coast in SE VA and NE NC. Highs will be a little cooler
compared to Thursday, ranging from the low-mid 60s north to near
70F over NE NC. The high continues to build south and into the
local area later tonight through the weekend, with a developing
sfc trough of low pressure off the SE US coast. The compressed
pressure gradient will tend to keep the airmass mixed with
milder temperatures for at least the SE 1/2 of the CWA tonight
but northern and NW sections should see lows back into the 30s,
potentially leading to patchy frost by sunrise Saturday.

High pressure will dominate the local weather pattern this
weekend and likely well into next week. Not much change in the
forecast with seasonal temperatures and near zero indications
for much needed rainfall returning to the region. At this time,
both Saturday night/Sunday AM and Sunday night/Monday AM have
the potential for at least patchy frost over much of the
interior, with the greatest potential in the piedmont. Have
continued to undercut NBM values by several degrees except at
the immediate coast.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated tidal anomalies continue through Friday
with minor tidal flooding forecast.

The remains of Josephine have pushed well away from the local
area, but with swell still propagating toward the coast and high
pressure to the north, tidal anomalies remain ~2ft above normal.
These anomalies should remain steady and/or slowly fall
today/tonight. Therefore, primarily nuisance to minor tidal
flooding is expected and Coastal Flood Advisories have been
extended through the evening high tide cycle. Nuisance flooding
may persist into Saturday as swell continues to propagate
toward the coast with persistent (but weaker) onshore flow, as
well as a gradual increase in astronomical high tides as we
approach full moon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

Clear skies and VFR conditions with N winds starting to increase
to start the 12z TAF period. Winds continue to increase, and
become elevated from the NE later this morning in the wake of a
cold frontal passage. This should allow for an increase in low
level moisture, with some lower clouds moving onshore by the
late morning and persisting through the afternoon, mainly at
ORF/PHF/ECG. While there is some chance for MVFR CIGs across SE
VA/NE NC, will keep any CIGs at VFR (CIGs >3000 ft). Winds by
late morning/aftn are expected to gust to 15-20 kt inland, but
to 20-25 kt at ORF. Winds remain elevated at ORF/ECG tonight,
but diminish to ~5 kt or less inland.

Outlook: SCT/BKN lower cloud cover may return Saturday, but
CIGs should primarily be VFR. VFR then prevails Sunday-early
next week. Forecast winds are out of the E-NE through this
period, with a typical diurnal max/min expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- North winds become NE and increase slightly by this evening as
high pressure shifts from Quebec to New York by Saturday.

- Elevated winds and seas will continue through the weekend,
especially across the central and southern waters.

North winds persist across the area with high pressure over Quebec
and low pressure SE of the Canadian Maritimes. With the low finally
moving northeast, the surface high will slowly move southward today
into Saturday. This will allow winds to shift to the NE later today
and possibly increase slightly especially across the central and
southern waters. Will therefore keep the small craft advisories in
place with the northern Chesapeake Bay seeing the advisory expire
this morning, while continuing the lower Bay through tonight. With
the winds expected to be NE, will opt to add the lower James River
to the advisory starting later this afternoon and continuing through
tonight.

There will not be much change in the winds or seas through the
weekend as the high will move very little through Sunday. There will
likely be a very slow decrease in winds and seas, especially across
the northern waters as the high ever so slowly shifts southward to
the Middle Atlantic by Monday. Still, expect NE winds of 10 to 20 kt
across the northern waters and lower bay and 15 to 25 kt across the
southern waters through Sunday. NE winds will favor continued
hazardous seas with 4 to 6 feet north and 5 to 7 feet south (higher
offshore). Waves in the lower Chesapeake Bay will be 2 to 3 feet (up
to 4 ft in the entrance to the bay) through the weekend. With the NE
winds allowing higher seas to persist in the coastal waters and the
entrance to the Chesapeake Bay through Sunday, have opted to extend
the small craft advisory through Sunday for those areas. These
advisories may need to be extended even further into early next week
in subsequent forecasts.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075>078-
     081-082-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ083-
     084-518-520-523.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ097-
     098-525-529>531.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ634-654-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...AJZ/MRD