Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

489
FXUS61 KAKQ 200620
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
220 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity
for the weekend.

2) Showers and storms return Monday. A more summer-like
pattern takes hold for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity
for the weekend.

The cold front that moved through yesterday is now draped across the
Carolinas this morning. Drier, cooler air has started to filter in,
and dew points have dropped into the 50s to 60s as high pressure to
our west pumps in a drier airmass. Temperatures around the forecast
area are measuring in the 60s to lower 70s near the coast, with a
few isolated inland areas seeing temperatures in the upper 50s
thanks to calm winds and mostly clear skies. GOES Nighttime
Microphysics highlights the last patch of low-level cloud cover
associated with earlier shower activity moving offshore, with
scattered upper clouds more prevalent across the forecast area. Dry,
pleasant conditions (for June) are expected through this weekend.
High pressure continues to build over the local area from the west,
and there is good model agreement that PWAT values will drop well
below normal for this time of year, leading to dry weather and
generally seasonable temperatures. Look for highs in the 80s to
lower 90s each day this weekend, with lows mainly in the 60s to low
70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and storms return Monday. A more summer-like
pattern takes hold for much of next week.

A more summer-like pattern will take hold by early next week.
Another cold front will drop toward the Mid-Atlantic Monday,
crossing the local area Monday night into Tuesday. Ahead of the
front, winds will shift to the SW and bring humid conditions
back across the area. Heat indices are forecast to near 100F for
a decent portion of the area on Monday ahead of any developing
convection. Showers and storms return to the forecast on Monday,
though once again, the timing of the frontal passage will
largely determine the degree of any severe threat across the
local area. There is a general consensus between models that the
bulk of any convection ahead of and along the front will move
through in the afternoon and evening hours, though there is
still a chance that a slower front (as depicted by the GFS)
could push back convection into the late evening/overnight
hours. Will continue to keep eye on this and assess the severe
threat as we get closer. Otherwise, only slight to low-end
chance PoPs and near to slightly above normal temperatures are
forecast through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions are prevailing at all terminals aside from PHF, where
some patchy ground fog has developed. There was some support earlier
for fog development at ECG, but as of now, there is no sign of
BR/FG in the area and guidance is not suggesting much in the
way of development through the morning, so have removed mention
of it for now. Winds will remain light from the W-NW through the
TAF period, with some gusts of 15-20 kts at SBY possible this
afternoon.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions prevail through the upcoming
weekend. Shower/storm chances return Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure builds into the region this weekend with benign
  marine conditions expected.

- Southerly winds strengthen on Monday ahead of the next system with
  SCA conditions likely.

The remnant circulation from former TC Arthur is now well offshore
and high pressure is building toward the waters from the WNW. A
secondary CAA surge is resulting in NW winds of 10-15 kt with
occasional gusts as high as 20 kt (mainly in the northern bay). Seas
are 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt later this
morning as the high settles in.  Quiet marine conditions are then
expected to prevail through the remainder of the weekend as the high
builds over the area. The gradient tightens again starting Sunday
night as low pressure tracks from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley.
The low will drag a warm front northward on Monday and track across
the northern Mid-Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds
become S 15-20 kt in the bay/rivers/sound and 20-25 kt offshore (w/
gusts to 30 kt) behind the warm front on Monday. Southerly winds
peak Monday afternoon/evening.  Seas will build to 3-4 ft S and 4-6
ft N nearshore. In the 20-60nm zones, seas will average 5-7 ft. SCAs
appear very likely for most if not all of the marine area. In
addition, a few strong to severe storms are possible Monday
afternoon and evening, which will likely necessitate SMWs. As the
low tracks to our north, a cold front will cross the waters Monday
night with improving marine conditions expected Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...SW/NB
MARINE...ERI/RHR