Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

651
FXUS61 KAKQ 271757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
157 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Trending drier today with only isolated showers and
thunderstorms.

Confidence is increasing with respect to hot temperatures during
the early to middle portion of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled conditions return today through Saturday with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

2) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled conditions return today through
Saturday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

An upper trough is located over the Great Lakes early this
morning, with a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic,
which is resulting in SW flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic. At
the surface, high pressure has settled offshore. Partly cloudy
to mostly clear early this morning with temperatures ranging
from the mid 60s to lower 70s, with some mid 70s along the
immediate coast. There is a subtle wave in the mid-level flow
that is triggering a few showers over eastern NC. Some of this
activity may nudge into NE NC from the northern shore of the
Albemarle Sound to the northern Outer Banks through the morning
hours. 00z/27 CAMs/HREF remain rather unimpressive with respect
to convection coverage and heavy rain threat for today, showing
isolated to minimally scattered showers. PoPs remain low, mainly
slight chc, with some low chc across NE NC/far SE VA and the NW
Piedmont counties, which are closer to a boundary in vicinity
of the Blue Ridge. The severe threat seems low for today with
only 20-25kt of 500mb flow and relatively weak mid- level lapse
rates. However, a few isolated stronger tstms are possible with
enough surface heating, mainly NW.

The boundary drops SE tonight and settles into interior SE VA
and the Carolina Coastal Plain by Friday, but remains rather
diffuse. There is a strengthening jet core over New England, but
there remains some uncertainty as to how well the RRQ of this
feature interacts with the surface boundary. Friday is now
within range of the 00z/27 HREF, which does have a decent signal
for locally heavy rain from showers/tstms with a contour of a
30% chc of 3"/3hr across eastern/SE VA and NE NC. The main
threat will be locally heavy rainfall and a Day 2 Slight ERO
covers NE NC and SE VA. However, showers/tstms will be more
scattered in nature and this does cause some lower confidence
with respect to flooding. PoPs are highest (50- 70%)from the
I-85 corridor northward to the RIC metro and east to lower
Eastern Shore and SE VA/NE NC, with 25-50% elsewhere. A few
stronger tstms are possible as well with SW flow of 20-25kt
persisting at 500mb, with the primary threat being damaging wind
gusts. The front lingers in vicinity of the NC/VA state line
Saturday, which could bring additional showers/tstms to the SE
VA/NE NC area, especially in the afternoon (40-60% PoPs).
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in any showers/tstms.
Drier conditions arrive by Sunday with only low PoPs over
interior SE VA/interior NE NC.

Seasonally hot and humid today through Saturday with high
temperatures primarily in the mid to upper 80s, and nudging up
to the upper 80s/around 90F (mid 80s at the coast) Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions prevail during the early to
middle portion of next week.

Hot conditions return early-mid next week as a 1.5-2.0 st dev
500mb ridge builds from the Central Plains to the Southeast. NBM
high temperatures Monday through Wednesday are primarily in the
lower to mid 90s. However, 850mb temperatures are primarily
19-21C in the 00z/27 EPS/GEFS, with similar values in the
deterministic 00z ECMWF. This along with 1000-850mb thickness
schemes support highs in the mid to upper 90s. The 00z GFS is
even hotter, but is an outlier at this time. If the hotter
temperatures are realized that will mean deeper mixing, which
should allow dewpoints to drop into the upper 60s/around 70F
during peak heating. Regardless, this would support heat indices
into the lower 100s. A developing negative height anomaly near
40N/50W may cause the eastern portion of the ridge break
down/retrograde later next week. However, Thursday likely
remains quite hot as well. Mainly dry with PoPs near to below
climo Monday through Wednesday. Chances of showers/tstms may not
return until Thursday once NW mid-level flow increases as the
eastern flank of the ridge breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail for the majority of the 18z/27 TAF period.
Isolated showers/storms are possible this afternoon and evening, but
confidence is not high enough to even include a PROB30 group for any
of the terminals. SCT-BKN CU has developed over most of the area
with BKN high clouds overhead. Winds remain out of the S/SE around
10 kt this afternoon, decreasing to aob 5 kt and becoming more
variable overnight. Patchy MVFR CIGS are possible early Friday,
mainly W and SW of RIC and patchy MVFR VSBY are possible at most
terminals right before sunrise.

Outlook: A higher chance of showers/tstms is likely Friday with
lingering showers/tstms Saturday. Brief sub-VFR conditions possible
in any showers/tstms. Trending drier and mainly VFR by Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 155 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign conditions today and into the weekend with a weak
  front briefly moving into the region early Saturday.

- Widely scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon
  and evening with greater storm coverage expected Friday.

Afternoon analysis shows a weak warm front lifting northward this
afternoon with S and SE winds around 10 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft with
seas 2-3 ft offshore. SE winds increase modestly into the 10-15 kt
range and become S into the evening. A few gusts approach 20 kt this
evening and tonight before winds transition to SSW or SW and
decrease to 5-10 kt by sunrise Friday. Generally benign marine
conditions are expected on Friday, however do expect higher coverage
of showers and storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Strong
winds and locally enhanced waves/seas can be expected in and around
thunderstorms cores tomorrow. A weak cold front drops south across
the local waters by Saturday morning but with little in the way of
cold or dry advection, not expecting N/NW winds to exceed 10 kt.
Waves will mainly hold in the 1-2 ft range with seas 2-3 ft through
the weekend.

There is a moderate rip current risk today for the northern beaches
due to nearshore waves building to 3 ft with a 8-9 second dominant
period. Expect low rip risks to return for all beaches into the
weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ/KMC
MARINE...RHR