Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

127
FXUS61 KAKQ 051819
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
219 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated full discussion. No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely
scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to
continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely
scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to
continue through the weekend.

Afternoon wx analysis shows a weakening upper low over KY/TN/GA,
with southerly flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic. Yesterday`s
shortwave/stationary front is now well to our north. While skies are
partly to mostly cloudy with cumulus, there are only a few showers
on radar (mainly in SE VA/NE NC) thanks to height rises from the
building ridge offshore and no boundaries/well defined forcing
mechanism nearby. Convection may increase in coverage a little bit
during the next couple of hours across the southeast, though the
vast majority of the area should stay dry. While widespread flooding
is not expected, even a quick half inch or inch of precip may be
enough to cause localized issues in areas that saw so much rainfall
yesterday.  The drying trend continues on Thursday with even more
height rises as the ridge offshore builds to the west. There is only
a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm during the
aftn/evening (mainly in the Piedmont). With lower storm chances,
temps rebound to the upper 80s-lower 90s on Thursday with upper 90s-
low 100s heat indices. Similar conditions are expected Friday into
the weekend with some slight height falls over the local area as the
upper ridge offshore retreats a bit to the SE and a series of weak
shortwaves pass by to our N/NW. This will lead to slightly greater
chances for diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and
Saturday across western and northern portions of the area but PoPs
generally remain aob 30%. A few storms are possible on Sunday, with
the highest precip chances (still only 20-30%) shifting to SE VA/NE
NC. Seasonable heat and humidity will continue through the weekend,
with heat indices in the upper 90s-low 100s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions have returned to the terminals early this aftn
with SCT-BKN cumulus around 3000-3500 ft AGL. Low-end VFR
cumulus prevails through the evening before dissipating tonight.
Isolated showers (and perhaps a tstm) are possible across the
area, with the highest chances at ORF/ECG. Have maintained
PROB30 groups for these two terminals as confidence remains
low. The most likely timing for precip is 18-23z. Mainly dry for
the remainder of the period.

Outlook: A more typical Summer pattern returns for the latter
half of the week and into the weekend. Only isolated
aftn/evening convection is expected on Thu/Fri/Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through late
week, outside of local thunderstorm influences.

This afternoon, a warm front has lifted north of the local waters.
Meanwhile, expansive high pressure is centered well offshore and is
building into the local waters. Winds are primarily out of the S to
SW, averaging 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots.
Nearshore seas are averaging 2 to 3 feet while waves in the
Chesapeake Bay are averaging 1 to 2 feet. Bermuda high will slowly
drift closer to the area late this week into the weekend, allowing
for a more typical summer setup over the waters. S to SW winds will
generally average 10 to 15 knots throughout the period, with S to SE
afternoon seabreeze circulations each afternoon. Daily afternoon and
evening shower and storm chances persist into the weekend, though
chances will be much lower Thursday/Friday and into the weekend.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk looks to persist across
the northern beaches through midweek, with a low risk for the
southern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB/NB