Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

837
FXUS61 KAKQ 271249
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
749 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Probabilities for accumulating snow have slightly increased for
the weekend system (overall). Confidence in the storm developing
is higher than before but the precise track and impacts of this
storm remains low at this range.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM this
morning, with additional headlines possible at times this week
given a prolonged period of very cold temperatures will persist
through the entire week. Impacts from the winter storm Sunday
will continue for much of the region due to little to no melting
of the snow/ice.

2) A weak clipper and arctic cold front will move across the
area Wednesday Night and early Thursday morning potentially
bringing light snow to the northern portions of the area. This
will bring additional cold air to the region late this week.

3) While details remain uncertain regarding the weekend system,
probabilities for accumulating snow continue to increase with
this forecast cycle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold this morning with strong high pressure
(nearly 1040 mb), centered along the western Gulf coast and
ridging ENE through the deep south. Temperatures currently are
ranging through the teens over most of the local area, with some
lower 20s at the coast. Winds are not strong, but even with ~5
mph, wind chills values are mostly in the single digits above
zero. With some additional cooling through sunrise, expect min
wind chill values to drop as low as -5 F inland and 0 to 5 above
closer to the coast. The Cold Weather Advisory remains in place
for all zones through 10 AM to cover this. The surface high
expand to the SE CONUS today, as the first is a series of weak
clipper systems move E across Ontario and Quebec, resulting in
a compressed pressure gradient and a breezy W-SW wind this aftn
(gusts to ~25 mph). Forecast highs are only expected to reach
the upper 20s to lower 30s (mid 30s possible SE), with wind
chills in the upper teens to mid 20s during the afternoon hours.
There is a weak/dry cold front that slides across the area
Tuesday night. NBM has lows ranging from the single digits NW to
the upper teens/around 20F SE. The statistical MOS guidance is
much warmer than the NBM and have blended this into the forecast
(though am still much colder than MAV/MET numbers given the
snow/ice pack over most of the CWA). Have not issued any
additional cold weather headlines with the current one still in
effect, but the next shift may need to consider one for at least
northern portions of the FA (northern piedmont where single
digit temps are forecast and NE where more mixing is likely to
result in wind chills down in the single digits). Mostly sunny
and remaining very cold Wed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak clipper system and arctic cold front
cross the area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning,
bringing another surge of arctic air to the region. Some light
snow showers or flurries are possible with the arctic front
(mainly N/NE), but the models continue to depict the shortwave
passing through the central and northern portions of the FA,
which would favor a dry forecast except over the N/NE zones.
Have 20-30% PoPs from the northern Neck to the eastern shore,
with PoPs 10% or lower elsewhere. Temperatures Thu-Fri are even
colder, with highs generally 20-25F below average (15-20F below
average far SE) for Thursday and Friday. This will result in
temperatures during the day remaining in the 20s for much of the
area with only lower 30s in far SE VA and NE NC. Overnight/early
morning low temperatures Thursday/Friday AM range from the
single digits for most of the area, with lower/mid teens SE. A
few below zero ambient lows are possible in the Piedmont.
Additional cold weather headlines are likely. Wind chills will
struggle to rise above the mid teens to mid 20s during the day
Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The 27/00z runs of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC and
respective ensembles continue to remain similar to or even trend
more bullish on development of (strong) low pressure off the
southeast coast this weekend in response to an impressive upper
trough over the Great Lakes digging into the SE CONUS. Ensembles
are in reasonably good agreement with strong surface high pressure
diving southward over the plains towards the Gulf coast. There
is still uncertainity at this range of whether the system remains
well offshore limiting impacts, or tries to hug closer to the
coast. There are also some timing differences, though these have
decreased compared to the 12Z/26 runs. Still anticipate seeing
model run to run variability continuing for the next few days.
This is why it is more important to focus on probabilities
rather than individual deterministic model runs, particularly
with respect to model output snow accumulations. The general
consensus amongst the EPS/GEFS/GEPS 27/00z ensemble systems has
(again) either remained similar or slightly increased the chc of
accumulating snow for the weekend. Probabilities for >1" of
snow are generally 50-80% (highest SE), > 3" are 30-40% NW to
50-60% SE with the EPS a midpoint between the higher GEPS and
lower GEFS. For >6" probs, the EPS has 40-50% from SE VA/NE NC
up the Eastern Shore. Again, the GEFS is lower and the GEPS is
higher. Ensemble systems do have a tendency to cluster, so
expect some variations in probabilities as well. Temperatures
remain cold and well below average through the weekend. One more
thing to note is with respect to SLRs with this storm- the ratios
will likely be much higher than 10:1 given how cold it will be
and with the lack of a warm nose in the 850-700 mb layer
(especially inland). The probs referenced above are for 10:1
ratios so actual probabilities for listed snow amounts may be
higher.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 27/12z TAF period, with
mainly SKC today and tonight. W winds this morning avg 10 kt or
less, becoming W-SW this aftn at 10-15kt gusting as high as
20-25 kt. Diminishing winds tonight.

VFR conditions continue through the middle of the week. There
is a low-end chance of light snow Wednesday night-Thursday AM,
mainly at SBY, potentially bringing brief flight restrictions
(this is unlikely at the other terminals). A much stronger low
low pressure system may impact the region by late Friday, but
more likely Saturday and Saturday night. This has the potential
to bring widespread flight restrictions and strong winds but
details remain uncertain.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings are in effect for the Ocean north of the NC
  border as well as the Chesapeake Bay through early this
  morning with NW winds. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
  in all remaining coastal waters.

- A Freezing Spray Advisory is in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
  and VA coastal waters.

- Yet another period of high-end Small Craft Advisory to gale
  conditions is possible Thursday night into early Friday.

Gusty conditions continue early this morning as cold high pressure
builds in from the SW. Latest obs show NW winds gradually improving,
but still seeing sustained winds around 20kt with gusts around 30kt
over the bay and coastal waters. Buoy obs indicate seas of 6 to 8
feet, waves of 2-3 feet in the bay. Gale warnings continue for the
bay and coastal waters N of the NC border until 4am this morning.
Remaining breezy today as NW winds relax, then shift to the SW.
Expecting a brief lull in the winds (~15kt) around mid-day, then
increasing again out of the SW closer to 20kt (10-15kt in the
rivers/sound) in the evening and overnight. Will likely issue a SCA
for the bay once the Gale warning expires and carry it from this
morning until tomorrow morning. May also need to issue a brief SCA
for the coastal waters for seas this morning once the Gale comes
down, depending on how buoy obs look at that time.

Winds turn back to the NW Wed behind a cold front. Will then see a
break in the elevated winds Wed morning-evening. Another surge of
CAA and NW winds is expected late Wed night into Thurs, which at
this point looks like a low-end SCA. Breezy, but sub-SCA northerly
winds forecast for Friday. By the weekend, there is a chance for
another storm system to approach the area that may bring degraded
marine conditions, so we will continue to monitor any trends in the
development and evolution of this system over the next few forecast
cycles.

Periods of freezing spray will continue to be possible through the
week and likely into the weekend given cold water temps, sub-
freezing air temps, and elevated winds. For both the coastal waters
and Bay, seas should subside to sub-SCA this afternoon through
Thursday morning, though the coastal waters out near 20nm offshore
could see some 5ft waves creep in on Tuesday night. Thereafter, seas
will start to build again in the wake of another front, potentially
building further over the following days if the weekend system pans
out.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     MDZ021>025.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...AC/NB