Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

438
FXUS61 KAKQ 272008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
308 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Probabilities for accumulating snow have slightly increased for
the weekend system (overall). Confidence in the storm developing
is higher, but the precise track and impacts of this storm
remains low at this range.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the northern tier of
counties, the Middle Peninsula, and the Eastern Shore. Additional
headlines are possible this week given a prolonged period of very
cold temperatures will persist through the entire week. Impacts from
the winter storm this past Sunday will continue for much of the
region due to little to no melting of the snow/ice.

2) A weak clipper and arctic cold front will move across the area
Wednesday Night and early Thursday morning potentially bringing
light snow to the northern portions of the area. This will bring
additional cold air to the region late this week.

3) While details remain uncertain regarding the weekend system,
probabilities for an impactful winter storm continue to increase
with this forecast cycle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 308 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures this afternoon generally remain at
or below freezing, with a few land-based sites measuring
33-34F. GOES Visible imagery is highlighting the snow/ice pack
across a majority of our area, with only our far SE zones
remaining snow-free. With the limited heating today, none of
this snow/ice have been able to melt efficiently, which has
certainly helped keep temperatures as cold as they are. Heading
into tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop into the teens
to lower 20s along the coast, with a few areas in the piedmont
likely dropping into the single digits. The forecast is
currently on the low side, with MOS guidance suggesting low
temperatures will be a few degrees higher. With our current
temperature and wind forecast, wind chills along the northern
tier of counties in the local area, the Northern Neck, Middle
Peninsula, and Eastern Shore counties will 0-10F, so have opted
to issue a Cold Weather Advisory for these areas. Looking at the
temperature forecast for the remainder of the week, today and
tonight will likely be the "warmest" (excluding S/SE VA and NE
NC high temperatures for tomorrow). A weak/dry cold front will
drop across the area tonight which will re-enforce the already
cold airmass. Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 20s to lower
30s in the northern portion of the area, while temperatures will
increase to the lower to mid 30s in the southern portion. A few
areas will likely reach above freezing tomorrow, though these
are the areas that already have minimal, if any, lingering
snow/ice.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak clipper system and associated arctic
cold front will move across the area on Wednesday night. This
front will be mostly dry, though can`t rule out a few snow
showers or flurries mainly across the Eastern Shore as this
system moves through. At this time, no accumulation is expected,
though if any snow shower overperforms then snow will have no
problem accumulating on the already very cold ground. In the
wake of the front, temperatures will quickly plummet into the
single digits to teens across the entire area. Additional Cold
Weather headlines are likely tomorrow night as winds increase
and these temperatures drop behind the front, with wind chills
dropping into the single digits and localized areas where winds
are highest likely seeing below zero apparent temperatures. Wind
chills will struggle to rise above the mid teens to mid 20s
during the day Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Model guidance has come into good agreement in
regards to the overall synoptic pattern during the coming
weekend. There is moderate confidence that there will be a
digging upper trough over the Great Lakes, with a strong high
dropping southward over the Plains towards the Gulf Coast. The
trough is forecast to become a closed upper level low, though
the placement of this low remains somewhat uncertain and will
play an important part in the the exact evolution of this
system. The combination of these features will result in surface
cyclogenesis somewhere off the Southeast Coast. Ensembles have
a few different scenarios painted as to where this low develops,
which will have a major impact on the sensible weather for the
local area over the weekend. Most solutions do show significant
deepening of the low near the Mid-Atlantic coast, which could
case a plethora of issues concerning impacts to the region
including (but not limited to) heavy snowfall, high winds,
coastal flooding, and very hazardous marine conditions. GEFS
probabilities for >3" range between 40-80% across our forecast
area, with the highest chances across Eastern VA and the Eastern
Shore. Meanwhile, EPS probabilities for >3" are relegated
farther south, with the highest chances in coastal NE NC and far
SE VA and only range between 40-60%. There is one caveat to
these probabilities is that they are using a 10:1 SLR, but with
the very cold airmass already in place, these will likely be
much higher especially further inland. Any subtle differences in
the track of this low will ultimately dictate where the highest
snow will be observed. As of now, our forecast includes chance
to likely PoPs Friday night through Sunday, with the highest
PoPs Saturday and Saturday night as the low makes its closest
approach to the area. Different from this past weekend`s storm,
freezing rain is not expected, with the p-type likely being all
snow unless the track of the low deviates further west. If this
occurs, areas closer to coast may see a rain snow mix. Again,
there remains lower confidence in the specifics of this
forecast, so stay tuned for updates regarding this potentially
impactful winter storm. Additionally, some guidance is showing
some very bullish snow totals, so ensure you are getting your
information from trusted sources.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1226 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with dry and
mostly clear conditions expected. Southwesterly winds will gust to
around 20 kts through the afternoon before relaxing tonight and
becoming northwesterly as a dry front moves through.

VFR conditions continue through the middle of the week. There
is a low-end chance of light snow Wednesday night-Thursday AM,
mainly at SBY, potentially bringing brief flight restrictions
(this is unlikely at the other terminals). A much stronger low
low pressure system may impact the region by late Friday, but
more likely Saturday and Saturday night. This has the potential
to bring widespread flight restrictions and strong winds but
details remain uncertain.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 308 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay,
coastal waters, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound through
tonight due to elevated winds ahead of and behind a cold front.

- Confidence is increasing in high-end Gale or Storm conditions this
weekend as a strong coastal low develops.

- Freezing spray will continue to be possible through the weekend
with the best chance this weekend. Additional Freezing Spray
Advisories may be needed.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure centered over the
Gulf with a cold front over the Ohio Valley. This cold front pushes
S/SE overnight across the local waters. SW winds increase to 15-25
kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt (highest across the N coastal waters)
later this afternoon into tonight ahead of the cold front. Winds
become NW behind the front tonight before diminishing Wed morning as
high pressure builds in. Meanwhile, seas build to 3-5 ft with waves
building to 3-4 ft. Will note that light freezing spray is possible
tonight across the upper rivers, Ches Bay, and N coastal waters (N
of Cape Charles Light). However, given the marginal winds and brief
NW surge behind the cold front, will hold off on any Freezing Spray
Advisories for now and reevaluate tonight. After a lull in the winds
Wed, another cold front pushes through Wed night. This will allow
for another period of SCA conditions across the same areas as
tonight. However, light freezing spray may be a bit more widespread
than tonight with moderate freezing spray possible across the N
coastal waters. As such, a Freezing Spray Advisory may be needed in
future updates.

Confidence continues to increase in a strong coastal low developing
off the Southeast coast Fri night into Sat before tracking NE or ENE
off the coast through Sun. Most model guidance shows the potential
for quite impressive pressure falls with the mean MSLP of 985mb on
the GEFS (GFS ensemble), GEPS (Canadian ensemble), and EPS (European
ensemble) by Sun. While the winds over the local waters will depend
largely upon both the strength of the low and the exact track,
confidence is increasing in high-end Gale to Storm conditions this
weekend across the Ches Bay, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound
with Gale conditions possible across the upper rivers. Seas of 10-
15+ feet will be possible given the strong winds. Given the strength
of the low coinciding with higher astronomical tides, coastal
flooding will likely be a concern this weekend. However, we are a
bit too far out for details at this time. Additionally, given the
very cold temps, widespread freezing spray will likely be an issue
this weekend as well. Winds become NW behind the low and gradually
diminish into Mon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for VAZ048-062-064-075>078-084>086-099-100-
     509>511-517-519>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ632-634-
     650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ633-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ638.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...RMM