Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

088
FXUS61 KAKQ 032344
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
644 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated all discussions. Rain chances and QPF have increased
late Thursday into Friday, with 1-2" possible across portions of
the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and unseasonably warm conditions continue through tomorrow.

2) Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected
Thursday night through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and unseasonably warm conditions continue
through tomorrow.

High pressure remains in control of the weather across the region
this afternoon, with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies
prevailing. Temperatures have warmed well into the 70s across
much off the area, several degrees above normal for early
November. High pressure shifts farther offshore tonight, with
mostly clear skies and calm winds expected. Another round of
patchy fog will be possible late tonight into early Wednesday
morning as favorable radiational cooling conditions develop. Low
temperatures will not be as cool as last night, but we will see
readings ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Remaining dry and mostly sunny on Wednesday with highs ranging from
the mid 70s to around 80 (slightly cooler along the immediate
coast).


KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is
expected Thursday night through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
possible.

High pressure continues to move offshore Thursday as an upper-level
trough and associated cold front approach from the west. Expect
another warm day with increasing cloud cover. A few showers cannot
be ruled out, especially across western portions of the area, but
the more widespread rainfall is expected to hold off until Thursday
night.

Confidence continues to increase in widespread rainfall late
Thursday night through Friday, with the latest 12z guidance
generally trending wetter. Both the GFS and ECMWF depict a southwest
to northeast axis of enhanced QPF extending from south-central VA up
to the MD Eastern Shore. The GEFS and EPS have also trended wetter,
with the CMC remains somewhat drier. Overall rainfall amounts
of 0.50" to 1.50" appear increasingly likely, with locally
higher amounts in excess of 2" or more possible across the
Northern Neck over to the MD Eastern Shore. The 12z EPS
indicates probabilities of exceeding 1" ranging from 40-50%
across central and south-central VA to 60-70% over the MD
Eastern Shore. Meanwhile, probabilities of exceeding 2" remain
considerably lower (~10-20%), lending lower confidence to the
higher-end rainfall amounts.

Anomalously high moisture will accompany this system, with PWATs
forecast to surge to 200%+ of normal for this time of year. This
will support locally heavy rainfall, especially with any embedded
convection. Have maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms
Thursday night through Friday, with some elevated instability
possible Thursday night and modest surface based instability
developing Friday afternoon (SE). The 12z ECMWF depicts MLCAPE
values of ~500-750 J/kg across SE VA Friday afternoon. In addition
shear increases to ~40-50 knots. While this environment may support
the potential for a few stronger storms, widespread clouds and
ongoing precipitation may limit destabilization, keeping
confidence in any severe weather threat low at this time. Rain
chances should diminish from west to east Friday evening as the
cold front moves offshore. Pleasant and drier weather returns
for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 PM EST Tuesday...

High pressure remains overhead tonight, allowing for mostly
clear skies and light/calm winds. This will likely allow for
another round of at least patchy fog with areas of fog possible.
Most model guidance shows the fog spreading over the area after
6z. However, cannot rule out patchy fog across far SE VA/NE NC
beginning to develop by around 5z. Have added IFR/LIFR VIS due
to fog at all terminals late tonight into early Wed morning,
but have kept VIS at or above 1 SM for now given some
uncertainty with respect to how widespread the fog will be. Will
note that VIS may be 0.5 SM or less at times if the fog does
become widespread. Additionally, the fog may remain shallow
enough to avoid being sampled as stratus. However, have leaned
towards LAMP guidance for now and added SCT007 in case the cloud
deck remains a bit deeper. Fog lifts by around 14z Wed with
mostly sunny skies returning. Clouds gradually build in from
west to east late in the afternoon on Wed. Otherwise, winds
become S 5-10 kt Wed.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions continue through Thursday,
though patchy early morning fog is again possible Thursday
morning. Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday, with
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms potentially
resulting in periods of sub- VFR conditions. Conditions improve
Friday night into Saturday, with VFR conditions generally
anticipated for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevails through mid-week before a potential
weather system approaches.

Afternoon weather analysis shows broad high pressure centered off
the east coast. Winds are currently light ~10kt out of the east and
seas are around 1ft across the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean.
Through the rest of the afternoon and into Wednesday these benign
marine conditions are forecasted to persist. By Wednesday, high
pressure will be further offshore as a low pressure and its cold
front approaches from the west. Ahead of the cold front winds are
forecasted to be out of the SSE beginning Thursday. Winds are likely
to remain sub-SCA as SST have cooled off and less mixing is likely
to occur. The main threat for any SCA will likely come from wave
heights, as sells approach from the SE. However, confidence is low
due to the nature of the coastline likely protecting the area from
the swells and the direction of the wind. By late Friday/early
Saturday the cold front will have finally pushed through the area
shifting winds out of the NE. These NE winds are progged to persist
through the weekend but are likely to remain just shy of SCA
conditions for the bay. Looking far into the extended there are
hints of a much stronger frontal system that potentially bring
elevated marine conditions back to the waters. However, confidence
is low at this time on exact details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI/HET