Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

340
FXUS61 KAKQ 300947
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
547 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for most of the marine
area tonight into Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy fog across SE VA/NE NC will persist through mid
morning before dissipating. Otherwise, dry, seasonable weather
is looking likely for Halloween weekend and into early next
week.

2) Rain chances have continued to trend down for early next week,
with no precipitation currently in the forecast. Rain chances may
return by Thursday with above average temperatures to start the
month of November.
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy fog across SE VA/NE NC will persist through
mid morning before dissipating. Otherwise, dry, seasonable weather
is looking likely for Halloween weekend and into early next week.

Early morning wx analysis shows ~1028mb high pressure centered from
the northern Plains to Upper Midwest, ridging toward the area.
A cold front is approaching from the north. Patchy fog has
developed across S/SE VA and NE NC. This will expand a bit in
coverage during the next few hours, with locally dense fog
possible. May need to issue an SPS to account for this. The fog
should dissipate by mid morning. The cold front approaches later
today with winds becoming NW by the afternoon. However, the
main push of CAA will lag behind the front and not arrive until
tonight. So, expect one more warm day with forecast highs in the
upper 70s-lower 80s. Winds increase out of the N then NNE
tonight as the CAA surge arrives. Temps fall into the 40s in
most areas, with lower 50s in coastal SE VA/NE NC with the flow
off the water. Cooler, dry, and pleasant on Halloween, with
highs in the lower-mid 60s. Temps fall off quickly (to the upper
40s-50s) during the evening as high pressure builds over the
area with lows dropping into the lower-mid 40s by Sunday
morning. Slightly milder (upper 60s) on Sunday with more clouds
ahead of an approaching weak shortwave.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances have continued to trend down for early
next week, with no precipitation currently in the forecast. Rain
chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures to
start the month of November.

The chance for measurable rainfall continues to decrease for Sunday
night into Monday despite the passage of a shortwave. While skies
will likely be mostly cloudy, low-level moisture will be
significantly lacking. The clouds will keep highs in the upper 60s-
lower 70s. A warming trend is expected by next Tuesday/Wednesday, as
upper ridging builds overhead and the surface high moves well
offshore. Widespread lower-mid 70s appear likely on both days.
Precipitation chances finally return to the forecast by next
Thursday-Thursday night as a stronger low pressure system
potentially tracks from the Mississippi River Valley to the Mid-
Atlantic/Northeast. However, forecast confidence in this potential
welcome rainfall remains understandably low given the timing.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 600 AM EDT Friday...

Patchy fog near the terminals will persist for a few more hours,
then VFR conditions return for the rest of the period with
mainly clear skies. Intermittent VSBY reductions are expected
in most places, though prevailing IFR-LIFR is likely to
continue at ECG for through 12-14z. The fog may expand a bit
until 12z. Then, it should lift by 14z. Generally light NW
winds expected today, becoming N in the afternoon. A dry cold
front crosses the area tonight, which will allow winds to become
NNE. The wind should remain high enough tonight to preclude any
fog development.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected from
from Saturday through at least Sunday. Remaining dry through
the weekend and likely into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- N-NE winds increase later this evening behind a cold front,
  with Small Craft Advisories in effect for most zones tonight
  into Saturday.

Early morning surface analysis shows that high pressure has moved
offshore, while still extending back well to our west. A cold front
is currently located just north of the Ohio River Valley. Wind over
our local waters this morning is SW at 5-10kt, with waves of less
than 1 foot in the Bay and seas 2-3 feet across the northern coastal
waters and 3-4 feet along the south. The aforementioned cold front
will approach our area and pass through this afternoon. Winds will
become NNE behind the front, but remain below SCA initially.

Strong high pressure will build into the region later this evening
into the early overnight hours. This will result in NNE winds
increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt across most of the local
waters (10-15kt with gusts to 20kt for the upper rivers). Starting
around 9-10pm, local wind probs for sustained 18kt winds become 60-
75% in the Chesapeake Bay. Probs for sustained 25kt winds are non-
existent, but gusts to 25kt are likely across the coastal waters as
well. SCAs have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James
River, and Currituck Sound for winds of 15-20kt and gusts to 25kt
late this evening into Saturday morning. Waves in the Bay will pick
up to 3-4ft during this period as well. SCAs have also been issued
for the southern coastal waters (from Cape Charles Light, VA to
Currituck Beach Light, NC) early Saturday morning through the
evening hours for seas building to 5ft. The rest of the coastal
waters are very marginal for any SCA thresholds as 5ft waves look to
remain out closer to 20nm. Opted to leave them out of the advisory
for now, but the next shift will take another look.

Winds and waves/seas will diminish throughout the day on Saturday,
and high pressure will persist overhead into early next week with
benign marine conditions. The area of high pressure looks to slide
offshore on Tuesday ahead of the next potential weather system
approaching the Mississippi River Valley.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ630>634-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JKP