Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

168
FXUS61 KAKQ 160823
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
423 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Discussion, including 06z TAFS.

Have lowered high temperatures again through Friday due to
areas of smoke from Canadian wildfires that will remain across
the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) While very warm/hot conditions prevail, waves of smoke from
Canadian wildfires will push into the area, and will likely
suppress daytime high temperatures through Friday.

2) Thunderstorm chances increase this weekend, bringing the
potential for locally heavy rain, along with very warm and humid
conditions persisting into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...While very warm/hot conditions prevail, waves
of smoke from Canadian wildfires will push into the area, and
will likely suppress daytime high temperatures through Friday.

Waves of dense smoke aloft emanating from wildfires over west-
central Ontario will get funneled south toward the area once
again today. Manually added "haze" wording to the gridded
database encompassing all zones today, following closely with
the HRRR-Smoke and RRFS vertically integrated smoke forecasts,
which have been handling current conditions well.

As we saw yesterday, a hazy, milky sky from vertically
integrated smoke can cause quite a reduction in afternoon
temperatures. Because the NBM and MOS don`t ingest real-time
wildfire data, they treat the column as completely clear,
creating a substantial warm bias. The rest of the 00z guidance
displays a highly bimodal spread for max temperatures, ranging
from the upper 80s to low 90s in the HRRR-Smoke/RRFS suites to
near 100F in the GFS/ECMWF. We are leaning heavily on the HRRR-
Smoke and RRFS for this package, which are some of the few
members within the guidance envelope to explicitly model smoke.
The latest guidance from these models vertically integrated
smoke fields shows another dense concentration of smoke aloft
today. Have therefore played up the haze and smoky overcast.
Weaker vertical mixing under the thick smoke plume aloft will
cap temperatures a bit more while also keeping dewpoints higher.
As a result, high temperatures have been lowered a few degrees
on average from the previous forecast, running a good 4-5
degrees below the NBM/MOS. Meanwhile, dewpoints have been
increased toward the high end of the guidance envelope today.
Highs will generally cap in the low-to-mid 90s, with heat
indices staying right around 100F. Additionally, Air Quality
Alerts are in effect for the Richmond Metro, Hampton Roads, and
the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore for today.

Some CAMs show weak convection developing to our north along
the weakening cold front and potentially reaching the MD Eastern
Shore counties before weakening. While this remains a low-
probability scenario, a 20% PoP still seems reasonable and has
been maintained.

On Friday, we should see a higher concentration of both
vertically-integrated and sfc-based smoke filtering into much
of the CWA. This should result in more haze and at least some
visibility restrictions in smoke and quite possibly even lower
air quality. More Air Quality Alerts appear possible, and we
will continue to monitor this potential. Due to this, have
manually lowered high temperatures for Friday by several
degrees. Somewhat lower dewpoints look to filter in from the
north, keeping heat indices below 100F for much of the region.
The exception could be across NE NC, where we could still see
heat indices up to 105F if the smoke remains farther north, or
at least comes in later in the day as presently modeled.
Additional isolated showers and storms firing along the piedmont
trough and riding along the weakening ridge could conceivably
make it into the area before weakening, but chances are again
very low. Kept PoPs at 20%.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorm chances increase this weekend,
bringing the potential for locally heavy rain, along with very
warm and humid conditions persisting into early next week.

The upper level ridge continues to gradually break down over
the weekend, as upper troughing re-establishes itself over the
northern Mid-Atlantic and northeast CONUS. As low pressure
tracks from the eastern Great Lakes into New England, it will
send its attendant cold front south toward the local area this
weekend. Ahead of the front, a series of shortwaves will track
across the area from Saturday through Monday. As is typically
the case this time of year, it now seems likely that the
slowing/weakening front will become hung up and linger across
our area into Monday.

While considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact
timing and coverage of storms, the upper flow turning WNW-NW
over a hot, increasingly humid, and moisture-pooled boundary
layer (PWs increasing AOA 2") will set up a climatologically
favored pattern for locally heavy rainfall and downbursts.
Moisture pooling along the slow-moving boundary beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates will favor a hot, muggy, high-DCAPE setup
capable of producing isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts
and potentially some instances of flash flooding in urban or
flood prone areas each day this weekend, with this activity
potentially lingering into Monday. Deep-layer shear is respectable
just ahead of the front in the 25-35 kt range for Saturday.
This could support some convective line segments, again
depending on the timing of the upper support. It is likely that
due to weakening shear, the main threat later in the weekend
would be heavy rainfall along the sagging/weakening frontal
boundary, and Hampton Roads has been included with a Marginal
Risk in the latest Day 4 ERO from WPC.

High temperatures trend a bit cooler with the increasing PWs
and cloud cover. However, with that comes higher dewpoints. This
appears especially likely across SE VA and NE NC, where max
heat indices will likely linger near 105 F through Sunday, if
not Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through the
06z TAF period with smoke from Canadian wildfires remaining
aloft (~25 k ft). Winds will generally be light from the S-SW.
There is some potential for reduced VSBYs in near sfc smoke
mainly at SBY and perhaps RIC later this morning and this
afternoon. There is also a slight chc for evening tstms at SBY
toward the end of the TAF period, but chances remain low enough
to hold out mention for now. Elsewhere, all terminals could
potentially see reduced VSBYs in near sfc smoke by Friday.

Outlook: Higher chances for SHRA/TSRA are expected Sat
aftn/evening and again Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory marine conditions persist through
  Saturday. Southerly flow becomes E-NE 10-15 kt behind a weak
  boundary Friday.

- Potential for marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions in elevated
  southerly flow Saturday night into Sunday.

Sub-SCA conditions will continue as high pressure is located near
the area through Saturday. Winds are currently W-SW 10-15 kt early
this morning. There will be a slight relax late morning and
afternoon before winds increase again overnight to 10-15 kt out of
the SW. A weak boundary will cross the area late Thursday
night/early Friday morning, shifting winds out of the E-NE at 10-15
kt on Friday. Gusts to 20 kt are possible for the coastal waters
north of Cape Charles with this boundary, but conditions look to
remain sub-SCA for all waters.

Confidence is rising in southerly flow increasing Saturday night
into Sunday morning ahead of the next frontal system. The local wind
probs shows a 90% chance of gusts to 18 kt across all waters and a
60-70% chance of gusts to 25 kt across the coastal waters (30%
chance for the lower Ches. Bay). Waves and seas will remain ~1 ft
and ~2 ft, respectively. A brief increase to 3+ ft seas is possible
Friday with the NE winds, with a further increase to 3-5 ft with the
S winds on Saturday/Sunday.

There is a low risk of rip currents across all beaches today and
Friday. Depending on the strength of the NE winds Friday (and the
resultant seas and nearshore waves), a moderate rip could eventually
be required.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 420 AM EDT Thursday...

- Record Highs:

-     Today 7/16      Fri 7/17

- RIC: 101 (1980)    100 (1980)
- ORF: 102 (1879)    100 (1887)
- SBY:  99 (1915)     99 (2012)
- ECG:  98 (1995)     99 (1942)

- Record High Mins:

-     Today 7/16       Fri 7/17

- RIC:   77 (1983)     77 (2025)
- ORF:   80 (1995)     80 (2024)
- SBY:   78 (2024)     80 (1983)
- ECG:   79 (2012)     80 (2019)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...KMC/SW
CLIMATE...LKB