Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

665
FXUS61 KAKQ 270712
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
212 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler and drier conditions persist through Saturday
night. Cooler weather continues through at least the middle of
next week. The next chance for rain arrives Sunday into Monday
with a better chance of more widespread rain Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Cooler and breezy today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Latest surface analysis shows strong low pressure tracking from
Ontario to Quebec, with the strong trailing cold front now just to
our southeast. WNW winds are gusting to 20-25 mph as CAA ensues
following the FROPA. Temperatures are in the mid 40s-50s, but will
drop into the 30s-lower 40s by sunrise. Much cooler and partly to
mostly sunny/breezy today as there will still be a gradient between
the strong low well to our north and high pressure over the Plains.
Highs will only reach the upper 40s-lower 50s with a WNW wind with
gusts to 20-25 mph. The high builds toward the area tonight but
remains well to our west as a secondary push of CAA arrives,
dropping 850 mb temperatures to -10C by early Fri AM. While
radiational cooling conditions won`t quite be ideal with a 5-10 mph
WNW wind, lows will still fall into the mid 20s-lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Even cooler with a bit more wind on Friday (gusts to 20-35 mph,
  highest NE).

- Quite cold Friday night with teens likely in the Piedmont and
  lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Cool with less wind on Saturday.

Much cooler weather continues on Friday as deep upper troughing
remains over the eastern CONUS as the strong (1032-1036 mb) surface
high builds toward the central Appalachians. Highs on Friday will
only be in the lower to mid 40s, and the wind will actually be
stronger than today in the wake of the above mentioned secondary CAA
surge. Gusts to 20-35 mph are expected (highest on the eastern
shore). The strong high eventually becomes centered over the local
area Friday night into Saturday morning as the flow aloft flattens
out. With the high over the area Friday night, upper teens are
likely in the Piedmont and rural areas of central, south-central,
and southeast VA. Lower 20s are expected elsewhere (inland) as winds
become light and skies remain clear. Lows at the immediate coast
(e.g. Norfolk/VA Beach) will be in the upper 20s-30F. With high
pressure overhead Sat, winds will remain light through the day.
However, it will still be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and
lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through mid week.

- Light rain is possible late Sunday into Monday with a more
  widespread wetting rain possible from Tuesday-Wednesday AM.

Clouds increase Saturday night into Sun as high pressure moves
offshore and an area of low pressure tracks well to our north. It
will take awhile for the atmosphere to saturate on Sunday given how
dry the antecedent airmass will be. Light rain likely reaches the
Piedmont/I-95 Corridor by the aftn, with a better chc of light rain
for the rest of the area Sunday night-Monday AM. Highs will still
struggle to get out of the 40s in the Piedmont on Sunday, with lower
50s along the I-95 Corridor, and mid 50s-lower 60s farther east.
Mostly cloudy, cooler, and mainly dry on Monday with mid to upper
40s expected.

Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the
area from late Mon night into early Wed. The 00z/27 model/ensemble
guidance has continue to trend warmer and farther north with the low
track. That, combined with a lack of a cold air source, leads to
very low confidence in any wintry precip. Still can`t completely
rule out a brief period of light snow or freezing rain NW of the RIC
Metro Monday night/Tuesday AM before a changeover to plain rain. The
NBM probs for 1" of snow and 0.01" of freezing rain continue to be
~10% across NW portions of the FA. Given that this is still day 5/6,
have kept a rain/snow mix across the far NW Piedmont, and an
explicit mention of freezing rain most likely would be added to the
forecast only if confidence increases. Rain tapers off by early Wed
with cool conditions continuing through at least mid-week. Highs
likely won`t get out of the 40s across much of the area on Tue/Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 06z/27 forecast period
at all sites. A strong cold front will move south of the
terminals before sunrise, with WNW winds of 10-12 kt in its
wake, gusting to ~20 kt. The breezy WNW winds persist through
the day today. Mid and high level clouds increase over western
portions of the area later this morning into this aftn (but
remaining VFR). VFR tonight with clear skies outside of high
clouds and a WNW wind of 5-10 kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through at least Saturday
night. Breezier conditions are expected Friday with a WNW wind
of 12-18 kt gusting to 25-30 kt, highest at SBY. High pressure
then builds over the area Friday night into Saturday with
lighter winds expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect through early this morning as
  winds remain elevated behind a cold front.

- Winds decrease below SCA criteria later this morning and afternoon,
  but a secondary surge brings stronger winds, potentially with
  a few gale force gusts, tonight into Friday morning and again
  Friday night.

NW winds have increased to 15-25 kt behind a cold front this
morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
and coastal waters N of the NC/VA border through 7 AM. The SCA for
the rivers drops off a bit earlier...at 4 AM...as winds should
decrease faster there. Benign marine wx makes a brief return later
this morning and afternoon before another increase in winds to 15-25
kt this evening through most of Friday and Friday night. Cold air
advection will be maximized early Friday morning as a potent upper-
level disturbance moves through, which should allow for occasional
30-35 kt wind gusts across the waters. Probabilities for frequent
Gale-force gusts (>34 kt) remain very low (less than 10%);
therefore, no Gale Warnings are anticipated at this time. However,
additional SCAs will be needed once the current headlines drop off
this morning. Gusty westerly winds continue through the daytime
hours Friday, with another surge possible Friday night given
pressure rises of ~5 mb/6 hr as high pressure begins building in
from the W. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction through
Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10-
20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft
range, with some potential for 4 ft waves late tonight and again
Friday night.

High pressure moves overhead Saturday with a light northerly wind
expected. Another cold front will then approach from the W Sunday as
the high shifts offshore, bringing a wind shift to the S.
While gusts upward of 20 kt are possible, SCAs appear unlikely. A
brief period of SCAs are then possible late Sunday night into Monday
morning in the post-frontal, northerly wind regime. Uncertainty then
increases by Tuesday of next week as another cold front (and likely
low pressure system) impact the region. A period of SCAs is possible
Tuesday into Wednesday, but the exact evolution of the wind
direction and speed is of low confidence at this point.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...SW