Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

852
FXUS61 KAKQ 291043
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
643 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drier weather continues likely into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier weather continues likely into early next week.

An upper trough digs offshore of the Eastern Seaboard, with surface
high pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region. The surface high
will translate towards the region today, allowing for pleasant
spring conditions with sunny skies and high temperatures in the
upper 70s to near 80F. By this weekend, the upper air trough will be
reinforced over eastern Canada, pushing another cold front south
across the Mid-Atlantic. However, a strong northern stream is still
expected to suppress moisture well to the S and a dry frontal
passage is expected. The 00z GEFS and EPS each depict PW values
remaining below normal through the weekend, and into early next
week. With this, dry conditions are expected through the weekend
with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Another potent northern stream trough and cold front dives out of
Eastern Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the Northeast
CONUS Tuesday/Wednesday as an omega block is in place over Central
Canada. NBM PoPs have slightly increased again from the previous run
for Monday in SE VA/NE NC, now with a 40-55% chance of showers.
Although the latest GEFS and EPS ensembles show ~100% PW anomalies
of normal for this area, these PoPs still seem pretty generous.
There is a slight chance of showers Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon,
but it doesn`t look promising as moisture returns behind the front
are around 50-60%  of normal.

Temperatures will average slightly below normal overall from
Saturday through Wednesday, with highs in the mid 70s to around 80F
inland, with slightly cooler conditions along the immediate coast.
Lows will mainly be in the 50s, with some upper 40s possible over
the Piedmont Sunday morning. Overall, quite pleasant for the end of
May into the beginning of June.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/29 TAF period. Northerly
winds are ~5kt early this morning (~10kt at ORF currently) and
will become northwesterly between 5-10kt during later this
morning. Then this evening, winds will shift out of the SW and
returning to ~5kt tonight. Mainly clear skies/SKC is expected
throughout the day.

Outlook: High probability of VFR conditions through this weekend and
into early next week. Another cold front arrives by Saturday, but
this is expected to be a dry frontal passage with increased
northerly winds and VFR conditions. High pressure and VFR conditions
prevail by Sunday. Another cold front looks to slide across the
region by Monday with a low chance of passing light rain
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain is in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
  until 8 AM due to a brief northerly surge.

- Another northerly surge is expected on Saturday as a second
  cold front passes. SCAs are likely for the bay and nearshore
  coastal waters (mainly due to seas).

Northerly winds have increased to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt on
the Ches Bay early this morning due to a brief CAA surge. SCAs
remain in effect for the bay until 8 AM. Winds diminish quickly
today and become light and variable this afternoon as high pressure
settles over the waters. Winds become SW at ~15 kt tonight as the
high moves offshore and a cold front approaches from the north. The
front crosses the waters on Saturday, allowing winds to become N
then NE and increase to 15-20 kt once again (as cold/dry advection
will be decent for the end of May post FROPA). SCAs appear likely
for the bay, Lower James and nearshore coastal waters from Saturday
through perhaps Saturday night (mainly S). Local wind probs for
sustained 18 kt winds are 75-100% on the bay from late Sat AM-early
Sat evening. NE winds may remain elevated (to 15-20 kt) through part
of Sat night over the lower bay and SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. Seas
build to 4-6 ft nearshore on Sat/Sat night, with waves as high as 3-
4 ft on the bay. Will hold off on SCAs for Saturday until after the
SCAs for the ongoing CAA surge this morning expire. Sub-SCA
conditions are expected from Sun-Mon with winds turning back to the
S then SW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...KMC/MAM
MARINE...ERI