Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

376
FXUS61 KAKQ 040117
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
917 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Updated to include a Severe Thunderstorm Watch

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through 2 AM,
which includes Southeast MD and portions of the Northern Neck.

2) Hot and humid conditions with heat indices around
105F are expected through the rest of the week. Heat Advisories
remain in effect for nearly the entire area through this evening,
and have been issued for central and SE portions of the area on
Friday.

3) A few thunderstorms are possible mainly across
northern portions of the area this evening and tonight (possibly
severe with damaging winds). More widespread storms are expected on
Friday, with storm chances continuing on Saturday (mainly SW). Some
storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts and possibly large
hail (especially on Friday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 915 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
through 2 AM, which includes Southeast MD and portions of the
Northern Neck.

An MCS is congealing across SW/S-central PA and the MD Panhandle
this evening and tracking ESE, with some additional convection
developing across the northern Shenandoah Valley. Max mid-level
lapse rates were ~7.3C/km on the 00z LWX sounding with SBCAPE of
4978 J/KG and 30kt of effective bulk shear. Additionally, the
latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests this favorable environment
extends into portions of the Northern Neck and SE MD. The latest
trends from the HRRR bring the MCS ESE and merge it with some
scattered convection in advance across NE portions of the local
area. However, this does not occur until after 04z, so there is
some question as to how late the damaging wind threat will
linger. However, the MCS activity may not push offshore until
after 06z, so there is a potential that the watch may need to be
extended in time if the damaging wind threat persists after 06z.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions with heat indices
around 105F are expected through the rest of the week. Heat
Advisories remain in effect for nearly the entire area through
this evening, and have been issued for central and SE portions
of the area on Friday.

The backdoor front has slowly lifted north and lingers near our
northern CWA border this afternoon. Upper heights have slowly risen
with a 594dm upper high centered from TN to the Carolinas. Isolated
convection has developed to our north and west. Heat Advisories
remain in effect for all areas except the MD/NC beaches. While
temperatures have been a few degrees cooler than expected, dew pts
in the mid to upper 70s have allowed mach of the area to reach Heat
Advisory criteria (aside from the eastern shore). Regardless, will
let the current advisories run until 8 PM. The ridge starts to break
down and a cold front will approach from the north going into
Friday, though temps in the mid to locally upper 90s and lower-mid
70s dew pts along/east of I-95 will allow heat indices to peak in
the 105-109F range across the SE 2/3 of the area. Therefore, have
issued another round of Heat Advisories from 11 AM-8 PM from I-95
east and roughly I-64 south.

Afternoon clouds and storms ahead of the front will likely limit
temps across the north, and lower dew pts in the Piedmont may limit
heat indices to the low 100s. So have held off on advisories attm
for these area. Relief from the heat will come this weekend with no
additional advisories anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A few thunderstorms are possible mainly across
northern portions of the area this evening and tonight (possibly
severe with damaging winds). More widespread storms are expected on
Friday, with storm chances continuing on Saturday (mainly SW). Some
storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts and possibly large
hail (especially on Friday).

As mentioned above, a few thunderstorms have developed to our NW
this afternoon, but will struggle to reach the area through 4 PM as
mesoanalysis shows some CIN/subsidence in place and the best
forcing/upper flow is still across the southern Great Lakes and
northern Mid-Atlantic. It remains uncertain whether the storms to
our north will be able to make it into the Piedmont/central VA this
evening, with PoPs generally no higher than 30% through 8 PM.
However, if storms are able to make it down here, they could be
strong to severe with damaging wind gusts. Another round of storms
is possible overnight across our N and NE counties as a
southwesterly 925-850mb jet strengthens some, with the most likely
timing for this from 10 PM-3 AM (best storm chances overnight are
across the MD Eastern Shore).

The most favorable overlap of forcing, shear, and instability is
expected Friday. At the surface, the aforementioned front to our
north will approach the local area but remain just to our north.
Aloft, NW flow will remain in place and strengthen to 35-45 kt
across much of the area by late in the day. The strong surface
heating and humidity will allow for ample instability, and dry mid
levels should enhance the potential for strong to severe winds. With
falling upper heights and the approaching front, scattered to
potentially numerous storms are expected to develop during the aftn
and spread southeast through the evening. Given the overlap of
strong heating/instability and deep-layer shear, continue to think
that there is a legitimate severe wx threat for much of the area,
with the potential for several fast-moving clusters capable of
severe (50kt+) wind gusts, along with isolated marginal supercell
structures capable of producing large hail (and damaging winds) as
well. The lack of LLVL shear and high LCLs will greatly limit the
tornado threat. The most likely timing for storms is between 4-10 PM
with the highest storm coverage closer to the coast. SPC has
maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe wx across
the entire area on Friday.

The risk for storms (and any potential severe weather) Saturday is
dependent on where the front is situated during peak heating. The
12z/03 models have trended slightly slower with the front, and while
winds switch to the north across the majority of the area Sat
aftn...the main push of cooler/drier air may hold off until late
Saturday. Therefore, it appears as if scattered storms are possible
across a decent portion of the area along/south of I-64. There
severe wx risk on Saturday is lower than on Friday, though a few
storms could produce damaging wind gusts (especially across far
southern portions of the area). Storms should be moving fast enough
on Fri/Sat for no worse than a highly localized flood threat.
Cooler/drier wx with onshore flow is expected on Sunday and Monday,
with a gradual warm up after that (w/ mainly dry wx).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. A cluster of
tstms was moving ESE across SW PA as of 00z, and this activity
may affect SBY later this evening into the early overnight
hours, mainly after 03z. A PROB30 group for tstms and wind gusts
to ~25kt was included at SBY from 03-07z. Elsewhere, shower/tstm
chances tonight have dropped to 20% or less. Dry/VFR Friday
morning-early aftn. Scattered to potentially numerous tstms are
expected to develop Friday aftn and continue Friday evening.
Some of the tstms could be severe with localized gusts of 50
kt. The best tstm chances are near the coast with most likely
timing for storms between 20-02z. No PROB30 or TEMPO groups have
been included at this time given that it is very late in the TAF
period with lower confidence with respect to timing.

Outlook: A stronger cold front is set to pass through the area
Friday night into Saturday. Tstm chances continue on Saturday,
with the highest PoPs S and SW of RIC. Mainly dry/VFR Sunday
through Tuesday behind the front, though brief MVFR CIGs are
possible near the coast with NE flow.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday..

Key Messages:

- South to southwest winds increase today and tonight ahead of a
  cold front. Conditions are expected to remain below Small
  Craft Advisory criteria, but there could be wind gusts ~15
  knots at times in the Chesapeake Bay and ~20 knots across the
  southern coastal waters.

- A cold front drops south over the waters Friday night into
  Saturday morning. This will allow winds to turn northerly,
  then northeasterly. Wind gusts may approach 20 knots late
  Friday night into early Saturday. A more substantial increase
  in NW winds is expected Sunday into early Monday as high
  pressure builds in from the north, with SCAs possible.

A light S-SE wind late this aftn will shift to the SSW and
increase to 10-15 kt tonight. A few gusts of 15 to 20 knots will
be possible, with the strongest gusts across the southern half
of the coastal waters. Winds diminish overnight into early
Friday. The cold front begins to drop south across the waters
Friday night into Saturday morning with winds turning to the N
and eventually NE later Saturday into Sunday. There will not be
a strong pressure push behind the front initially, but slightly
cooler/drier air filtering in over warmer waters will lead to
the potential for gusts of 15 to 20 knots Saturday. NE winds
increase a bit more Sunday into Sunday night, leading to the
next potential for SCA conditions across a majority of the
waters (highest probs for coastal waters for seas and the lower
Bay/lower James fro 15-20kt sustained winds. Calmer, more benign
conditions look to take hold for early next week as high
pressure builds back over the region, though seas stay elevated,
potentially 5ft+ through Monday for the southern waters.

.Tides/Coastal Flooding: Added a Coastal Flood Statement for
mainly nuisance flooding w/ the high tide cycle this evening
across Bayside portions of the Maryland eastern shore.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No records were set on Wednesday, 9/2 at any of the climate sites.
Record highs are possible today (Thursday, 9/3) at Norfolk,
Richmond, and Elizabeth City.

Richmond:           Record High:

Thu (9/3)           99/1984
Fri (9/4)           98/2023

Norfolk:            Record High:

Thu (9/3)           97/1977
Fri (9/4)           96/1985

Salisbury:          Record High:

Thu (9/3)           99/1930
Fri (9/4)           95/1944

Elizabeth City:     Record High:

Thu (9/3)           97/2020
Fri (9/4)           98/1944

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ080>090-092-
     097-098-511>520-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...LKB
CLIMATE...AJB