Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

363
FXUS61 KAKQ 131947
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
247 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost Advisory has been issued for the counties immediately east of
the Freeze Warning tonight.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the upper rivers for
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much colder air persists tonight into early next week. A Freeze
Warning is in effect for portions of the area tonight into Saturday
morning, with near-freezing temperatures possible again Sunday
morning. A Frost Advisory has been issued along the eastern side of
the Freeze Warning tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Much colder air persists tonight into early next
week. A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of the area tonight
into Saturday morning, with near-freezing temperatures possible
again Sunday morning. A Frost Advisory has been issued along the
eastern side of the Freeze Warning tonight.

A deep upper low is noted over the NE CONUS with a strengthening
surface low off of the NJ coast. Cold temperatures aloft, associated
with the upper low, have allowed for scattered to broken cloud cover
over much of the region. NW winds remain breezy this afternoon with
decent mixing. Winds will decrease this evening and overnight,
especially away from the coast. Water vapor imagery shows a short
wave trough to the west and southwest of the local area. This
disturbance will translate across the region late this afternoon
into the evening, bringing enhanced lift and a chance for showers,
mainly near and south of the VA/NC border. A few showers are also
possible across the Eastern Shore this evening. Any light precip
should come to an end around midnight with clouds expected to
decrease toward sunrise in the wake of the upper trough.

The Freeze Warning is in effect from late tonight through 8AM
Saturday. A Frost Advisory has been issued from the Northern Neck
southward along the eastern flank of the Freeze Warning. Blended
guidance continues below most of the global and statistical
temperature guidance. Questions remain regarding exactly when clouds
thin out and winds decrease, leading to some uncertainty as to just
how cold we will be able to get tonight/early Saturday. The forecast
has widespread upper 20s to low 30s for most of the inland area with
mid to upper 30s expected near the coast and into eastern NE NC.
Temperatures for the MD Eastern Shore will be tricky with more wind
and clouds expected. Have not included the Eastern Shore in any of
the frost/freeze headlines but interior portions of Dorchester and
Wicomico could see some freezing temps if winds decrease and
clouds are not as extensive as currently forecast. Dry and
cooler weather will continue Saturday and well into next week
with highs in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 20s to
low 30s inland (mid 30s to low 40s along the coast). Will wait
to see how observations go tonight before addressing the
frost/freeze potential on subsequent nights. It appears that
tomorrow night into early next week will see more classically
favorable radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and
lighter winds expected with high pressure moving over the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions are noted over much of the area early this
afternoon with the exception of the Eastern Shore where
widespread MVFR CIGs continue. NW winds are averaging 10-15 kt
with gusts 15-25 kt this afternoon. Expect winds to remain NW
tonight but fall back into the 5-10 kt range inland, slightly
higher at ORF. NW winds increase again on Saturday with some
gusts ~20 kt expected near the coast. Low pressure off the
Delmarva coast will continue to bring SCT/BKN low and mid level
clouds to the region through the afternoon before lifting and
scattering out tonight (SBY likely stays OVC/BKN through much of
the overnight but with CIGs aoa 3500 ft). Expecting VFR at all
terminals after sunrise on Saturday.


Outlook: VFR conditions are favored into next week with
continued gusty NW winds, gradually diminishing Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for a majority of the
  marine area now into Sunday. SCAs were added to the upper
  rivers for Saturday. The strongest NW winds are expected
  Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.

- Benign marine conditions are expected early next week through at
  least mid week.

This afternoon, the cold front from earlier is now located well
offshore. Meanwhile, a secondary, dry cold front is located just
west of the local waters. NW winds have diminished slightly from
this morning and are generally averaging 15 to 20 knots with gusts
of 20 to 25 knots. Seas are averaging 3 to 5 feet (5+ feet past 20
nm), and waves in the Bay are 2 to 3 feet. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect for a majority of the waters through Sunday.

A secondary surge of stronger NW winds is expected late tonight and
Saturday morning from an additional push of CAA. Widespread SCA
conditions will continue with winds peaking around 20-25 kt with
gusts to 30 kt. An isolated gust to 35 knots is possible out around
60 nm, but gale wind gust probabilities are near zero. Seas will
build to 4 to 6 feet near shore and 6 to 8+ feet for the waters
beyond 20 nm. Waves will average 2 to 4 ft. Elevated waves and seas
will continue through Sunday morning. The upper rivers were added to
the SCA for Saturday with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Winds
gradually diminish later Saturday into Sunday, but gusts of 20+
knots will likely continue into early Sunday afternoon. Calmer
conditions return Sunday night through at least Wednesday as high
pressure builds over the area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ012-013.
     Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ014-030.
VA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for VAZ076-
     079>083-087>090-092-512>522.
     Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for VAZ075-077-
     078-084-085-523-524-528-529.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB