Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

754
FXUS61 KAKQ 122321
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
721 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for tonight through
  tomorrow night for the Bay and Rivers.

- Rain amounts have continued to trend down, especially for SE
  VA/NE NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly clear skies and dry conditions prevail tonight.

2) Another cold front brings additional chances for showers and
possibly a rumble of thunder late Wednesday.

3) Warming up to above average temps for the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly clear skies and dry conditions prevail
tonight.

High pressure is situated along the Mid-Atlantic coast this
afternoon, leading to mostly clear skies and generally light winds.
Temperatures across the area have risen into the upper 60s to near
70F, with dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s making for quite a
comfortable afternoon. The high will shift offshore tonight as a
cold front approaches the area, shifting winds to the south and
leading to a tightening gradient and increasing winds. There will be
a short period of time just after sunset where winds will be light
with clear skies, so a few hours of radiational cooling are
possible. Some inland areas will likely drop into the mid to upper
40s during this timeframe, then may warm up a few degrees once winds
start to increase later tonight. Otherwise, low temperatures will be
in the lower 50s across the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2....Another cold front brings additional chances for
showers and possibly a rumble of thunder late Wednesday.

The next best chance at rainfall across the area will be late
Wednesday as another cold front drops through the region. There is
better agreement today on a later frontal passage, which will act to
limit instability across our area, with the best environment for any
stronger convection to our W/NW. Though the best dynamics remain
just outside of our area at this time, a deep trough aloft should
hopefully be enough for some rainfall across most of the area, with
the higher amounts confined to the northern half of the area.
Guidance continues to trend down on rainfall amounts over the past
few runs, with the current forecasted QPF at 0.25" or less, with
most of the local area east of I-95 forecast to see less than 0.10".
Temperatures remain cool Thursday, as an upper low becomes centered
over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Highs Thursday will be about 5-
10 degrees below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warming up to above average temperatures for the
weekend into early next week.

Significant changes are on the way by the end of the week, with
decent model agreement that a flat upper ridge over the southern US
starts to amplify and become anchored from the Gulf coast to off the
SE coast. Surface high pressure parked offshore will allow southerly
flow to prevail, leading to above normal temperatures returning by
the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s and nearing 90F possible.
Some of the deterministic models do show some chance for precip
along a warm front Sunday, but the NBM/blended guidance keeps it
mostly dry. Current ensemble guidance shows a high probability for
highs into the 90s Sun-Tue (especially Mon-Tue) for much of the
area, and the antecedent drought conditions should make this rather
easy to occur.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. Mostly clear
skies expected overnight with southerly winds 5-10 kt. A cold
front approaches the region late in the period with increasing
S winds expected by mid to late morning Wednesday. Winds mainly
10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, slightly higher at SBY where the
gradient will be tightest. Forecast soundings show at least some
moisture at the top of the mixed layer so FEW/SCT CU are
expected as heating gets underway. Any showers or isolated
storms are forecast to remain north and west of the terminals
through the 00z TAF period.

Outlook: Showers become likely late Wed-Wed night and will
bring the potential for some periodic flight restrictions. Winds
shift to the NW Thursday, with VFR conditions. Dry and VFR
conditions continue Fri-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and
tidal rivers, starting late tonight for the Upper Ches. Bay and
Wednesday afternoon for the lower Ches. Bay and the tidal rivers,
through late Wednesday night.

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for most of the
day Thursday, with another chance of advisories overnight Thursday
in the Ches. Bay.

- Mostly benign southerly winds are forecast for the weekend and
into early next week.

High pressure located over the area has allowed benign marine
conditions. Winds are variable with the high overhead around 5-10
kt, but will become southerly tonight as the high moves offshore
later. The next low pressure system to affect the area is currently
over the Great Lakes region and will push a cold front through the
local waters late Wednesday into Thursday. Ahead of this front,
winds will increase from the pressure gradient tightening between
the two systems. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will begin
in the Upper Ches. Bay late tonight with southerly winds 15-20 kt.
Winds elsewhere will be 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt (5-10 kt
south of the VA/NC state border). The pressure gradient will
increase throughout the day Wednesday with all of the Ches. Bay
seeing SE winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Coastal waters
north of the VA/NC state border will see an increase to 15-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt. Waves and seas will increase to 3-4 ft with
occasional 5-6 ft seas off the northern coastal waters. Overnight
Wednesday, winds will relax some and shift out of the NW behind the
front. There doesn`t seem to be strong CAA with this front, so not
anticipating any headlines during the day Thursday, but NW winds 10-
15 kt are likely in the Ches. Bay. There may be another chance for
advisories across the local waters Friday night into Saturday from
another tightened, with local wind probs showing a 20-30% chance of
gusts to 25 kt during this timeframe. Then, mostly benign marine
conditions are anticipated through early next week as winds become
southerly from high pressure offshore.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ635>637-639.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...KMC