Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

041
FXUS61 KAKQ 311850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
250 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Discussion for 18z/31 TAFs.

A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for bay-side portions
of the Maryland Eastern Shore as well as the southern shore of
the Potomac River.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is a chance for showers and a few storms across
southeastern portions of the area tomorrow. Temperatures remain
below average into midweek.

2) A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the
weekend.

3) A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for bay-side portions
of the MD Eastern Shore as well as the southern shore of the Potomac
River where nuisance tidal flooding is expected tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a chance for showers and a few storms
across southeastern portions of the area tomorrow.

A potent northern stream trough and cold front dives out of Eastern
Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the Northeast CONUS,
eventually dropping south and possibly trying to become cut off by
midweek off the Carolina coast. At the surface, a low will likely
form over the GA/SC coast and a cold front will cross the area from
north to south during the day on Monday. Light rain showers develop
across southeastern portions of the forecast area by mid to late
morning Monday, becoming more widespread across far SE VA into NE NC
by Monday afternoon. Rain showers will have difficulty spreading
much further north than Southside Hampton Roads and Northeast North
Carolina due to very dry air across the northern half of the
forecast area. Overall QPF amounts will range from 0.25" to 0.50"
along the Albemarle Sound, to ~0.10" or less across interior NE NC
and far SE VA. A few thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out tomorrow
afternoon/evening, but the best instability will generally be south
of the local area. Temperatures will be in the mid-upper 70s near
the coast to lower 80s inland. Temperatures remain below average on
Tuesday with highs in the 70s and potentially only upper 60s along
the coast due to strong NE flow. Temperatures will gradually rebound
on Wednesday, though continue to remain below average with highs
ranging from the mid-upper 70s at the coast to around 80 inland.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this
week into the weekend.

The persistent upper level trough over the eastern US begins to
break down/weaken by Thursday. This will allow a summer pattern to
take hold with temperatures climbing into the 80s on Thursday and
upper 80s to lower 90s Friday into the weekend. Outside of an
isolated diurnal shower/storm, dry conditions are favored Thursday
into the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for bay-
side portions of the MD Eastern Shore as well as the southern
shore of the Potomac River where nuisance tidal flooding is
expected tonight.

Tidal anomalies have increased above 1 ft in the
middle/upper Chesapeake Bay, mainly for portions of the MD Eastern
Shore and along the Potomac River. Strengthening southerly flow will
result in nuisance to possibly low-end minor coastal flooding
tonight. Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for tonight`s
high tide cycle in the aforementioned areas. Additional coastal
flooding is possible later this week as a prolonged period of NE
surface flow impacts the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...

High pressure remains centered across southeastern portions of
the area early this afternoon, leading to VFR conditions and
generally light and variable winds. As the high continues to
settle offshore, winds take on a westerly component, eventually
become S-SW later this evening into tonight. A sea breeze
likely develops this afternoon along the immediate coast,
resulting in E-SE winds ~10 knots. Clouds thicken and gradually
lower across the southern half of the area as the next
disturbance approaches from the south. MVFR CIGs develop at ECG
(and potentially ORF) later Monday morning, with VFR prevailing
elsewhere. In addition, light rain showers will be possible at
the SE terminals Monday morning, but VSBY restrictions are not
anticipated.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs gradually improve later in the
afternoon/evening Monday across the far SE terminals. There will
also remain the potential for showers or isolated thunderstorms
at ECG and perhaps ORF into Monday evening. Sub-VFR CIGs may
try to return later Monday night into Tuesday night, mainly
along the coast, due to developing onshore flow (potentially
gusty along the immediate coast). Prevailing VFR conditions
return later Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
tonight with southerly winds expected to strengthen to 15-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt as high pressure moves offshore.

- SCAs are likely with increasing NE winds from late Monday night-
  Wednesday.

Afternoon analysis shows 1020mb high pressure centered near the OBX.
Winds are mainly light (5-10 kt) and variable across the region.
Waves in the bay have fallen back into the 1-2 ft range with seas
offshore 3-5 ft (highest south of the VA/NC border where SCA
headlines remain in effect until 4PM).

High pressure translates offshore later this afternoon with winds
becoming S or SSW this evening and overnight. Latest guidance shows
increasing potential for SCA conditions in the bay this evening into
early Monday. Local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds have
increased to ~60% with additional support from recent hi-res models.
Have posted SCA headlines for the Ches Bay starting at 10 PM and
continuing through 7 AM Monday. Winds may briefly increase to 15-20
kt in the lower James River late tonight as well as winds become SSW
but confidence is too low for headlines at this time. Another dry
front approaches the region from the NW Monday morning and crosses
the waters during the afternoon. High pressure builds to the NW of
the local waters as weak low pressure develops offshore, resulting
in increasing NE winds from late Monday through Wednesday. The
latest guidance continues to favor low pressure developing well
offshore but the gradient will likely be steep enough for decent SCA
conditions across the region into midweek.

There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk at all area beaches on
Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR