Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

739
FXUS61 KAKQ 122355
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
655 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Freeze Watch has been issued for inland portions of central and
eastern Virginia as well as portions of northeast North Carolina for
Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive Friday into early next week with
below freezing overnight temperatures likely inland. A Freeze Watch
has been issued for portions of the area for Friday night into
Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated to scattered showers are possible this
afternoon.

Latest surface analysis depicted an area of low pressure centered
over SE PA/NE MD with a cold front beginning to push into portions
of the Piedmont. Temps as of 150 PM ranged from the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The low will continue to move NE away from the area
through Friday with the associated cold front pushing across the
local area later this afternoon. Aloft, an anomalously strong trough
was noted across the eastern CONUS and will linger across the region
into early next week. CAMs continue to show isolated to scattered
showers developing over the next few hours from west to east ahead
of the cold front. However, dew points have mixed out into the mid
40s across the Piedmont which has resulted in lower CAPE than
originally modeled. As such, confidence in robust convection has
decreased. However, have kept 15-25% PoPs across most of the area
and 25-40% PoPs across the lower MD Eastern Shore given the
favorable upper-level support, mid-level lapse rates, and low level
forcing along the front. Nevertheless, any rainfall is expected to
be very light with <0.1" expected. Most areas may struggle to even
see a few hundredths of an inch of rain. Any showers move offshore
this evening. Will note that the HRRR and NBM show the potential for
bay streamer showers across the Eastern Shore on Friday. Otherwise,
most of the area will remain dry on Friday. Given elevated winds and
cloud cover tonight, lows likely remain in the low-mid 40s for most
of the area.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive Friday into early
next week with below freezing overnight temperatures likely inland.
A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the area for Friday
night into Saturday morning.

An anomalously strong (-2 to -3 standard deviations) upper trough
settles over the area Friday into the weekend. While the core of the
trough moves offshore early next week, overall troughing continues
through early next week. As such, the coolest weather of the season
(so far) is still expected to arrive Friday and continue into early
next week. Daily highs in the 50s with lows near or below freezing
are expected for that stretch. Will note that low temperatures have
been raised slightly for Friday night given elevated winds and
perhaps partly cloudy skies at times. As such, the NBM appears to be
too low compared to other model guidance. Nevertheless, it still
looks like the first widespread near to sub-freezing temperatures of
the Fall with lows expected to range from 30-32F across most inland
areas away from the coast and upper 30s to lower 40s near and along
the coast. Therefore, have issued a Freeze Watch for locations along
and east of I-95 but away from the coast in VA as well as
Northampton and Hertford Counties in NE NC for Friday night into
early Saturday morning. NBM probabilities for subfreezing
temperatures were quite high over this region, however (as
previously noted), given that NBM is on the cool side of guidance,
temperatures may still be a bit too high. In any case, widespread
frost is expected which may bring the end to the growing season for
many inland locations. Lows may be even cooler Saturday night into
Sunday morning with upper 20s to lower 30s inland. As such, an
additional round of Freeze Watches or Warnings may be needed for
Saturday night into Sunday morning for counties that don`t drop
below freezing Saturday morning (and are expected to drop below
freezing by Sunday morning). Otherwise, breezy conditions are also
expected Friday and Saturday as CAA brings NW winds gusting to 20-25
mph inland and 25-30 mph along the coast. These winds will allow for
temperatures to feel even colder with wind chills in the mid-upper
20s for many inland areas (mid 30s along the coast) Friday night
into Saturday morning as well as Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Outside of the much cooler weather, dry weather is expected from
Saturday through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 655 PM EST Thursday...

Mainly VFR in VA/NC through the 00z TAF period, with CIGs
falling to MVFR at SBY. Showers will move offshore by this
evening with SCT-BKN sky cover continuing through the night. As
low pressure deepens offshore, wrap around moisture will likely
result in BKN MVFR CIGs at SBY starting late tonight and
continuing for the remainder of the 00z TAF period. Elsewhere,
expect SCT-BKN clouds between 4000-8000 ft. Winds become W and
eventually NW tonight-Friday with gusts to 20 kt expected.

Outlook: VFR conditions are favored from Saturday into next week with
continued gusty NW winds through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, lower
James River, and coastal waters north of the VA/NC border beginning
late tonight through tomorrow afternoon/evening.

- A prolonged period of SCA conditions is expected through much of
the weekend, with the strongest winds likely occuring on Saturday.

This afternoon, a cold front is situated just west of the waters
with SW winds currently ranging from 10 to 15 knots. Seas are
generally running around 2 to 3 feet and waves in the Bay around 1
foot. The front crosses the waters later this evening, with winds
becoming NW and increasing in its wake due to strong CAA and a
tightening pressure gradient. NW winds increase to 15 to 25 knots
with gusts of 25 to 30 knots late tonight into early Friday morning.
In addition, seas will build to 4 to 5 feet (6+ feet well offshore)
and 3 to 4 feet in the Chesapeake Bay. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect for the Chesapeake Bay beginning at 10 PM EST and for the
coastal waters beginning at 1 AM EST Friday. SCAs are also in effect
for the lower James River into Friday afternoon. Winds likely
diminish somewhat Friday afternoon and evening as the initial surge
weakens.

A secondary surge of stronger NW winds is expected Friday night into
Saturday as a secondary, dry cold front crosses the waters.
Widespread SCA conditions are expected, with NW winds of 20 to 25
knots and gusts around 30 knots. The strongest winds are expected
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. An isolated gust to 35 knots
is possible out around 60 nm, but Gale wind gust probabilities
continue to decrease. The pressure gradient remains compressed into
Sunday, with SCA conditions likely to linger through Sunday morning
and potentially into the afternoon across the Chesapeake Bay before
winds gradually diminish. Existing SCAs will likely need to be
extended with later forecast packages to account for the second
surge of stronger winds. Seas build to 4 to 6 feet nearshore and 6
to 8 feet offshore, with waves in the Bay averaging 2 to 4 feet.
Calmer conditions are expected for later Sunday into early next week
as high pressure builds over the region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning
     for NCZ012-013.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning
     for VAZ076-079>083-087>090-092-512>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ650-
     652-654-656.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...ERI/RMM
MARINE...AJB/MAM