Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

273
FXUS61 KAKQ 221051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
651 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Flood Watch was expanded to include southside Hampton Roads
and northeast North Carolina this morning through Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms continue across early this morning from the
Middle Peninsula over to the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Flash flooding is
likely to continue over portions of the Eastern Shore this morning.

2) The threat of severe thunderstorms will continue today and the
potential for torrential rainfall to produce scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding will increase later today into
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms continue across early this
morning from the Middle Peninsula over to the VA/MD Eastern Shore.
Flash flooding is likely to continue over portions of the Eastern
Shore this morning.

Early this morning, a slow moving cold front is located NW of the
local area. Moisture continues to pool ahead of this front, with PWs
over the local area ranging from 2.0 to 2.4" this morning. Very
heavy rainfall continues across portions of the Middle Peninsula and
over to the VA/MD Eastern Shore. A swath of 2-4"+ has fallen across
the southern MD Eastern Shore into the the VA Eastern Shore with
numerous Flash Flood Warnings remaining in effect at this hour.
Shower and storms will gradually spread south and reinvigorate later
this morning into this afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 2...The threat of severe thunderstorms will continue
today and the potential for torrential rainfall to produce scattered
to numerous instances of flash flooding will increase later today
into Thursday.

The severe threat likely continues today, but with the higher
probabilities shifted to the south and east compared to what we saw
yesterday, ahead of the aforementioned southward-moving cold front.
The flow aloft today is forecast to remain rather strong (40-50kt at
500mb). SPC has the Slight Risk outlined for our entire CWA (lvl
2/5). Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with any
stronger storms, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely
ruled out.

Attention then turns to the heavy rain/significant flash flooding
threat. Despite the ongoing drought conditions, today into tonight
is showing an increasingly confident signal for flash flooding,
especially in urban and poor drainage areas. WPC has introduced a
Moderate Risk ERO for today across much of Hampton Roads down into
northern portions of NC. Much of the remainder of the area is in a
Slight Risk ERO today. Decent flow aloft should keep individual
cells moving but training storms on top of the rainfall received
yesterday and overnight early this morning will likely cause
scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding. The axis of
heavier showers and storms shifts further to the SE on Thursday as
the slow moving front gradually sinks south. WPC has a Day 2
Moderate ERO across northeast NC up to roughly the VA border and a
Slight ERO across southeast VA. A Flood Watch has been introduced
for SE VA and NE NC based on the latest data. The Flood Watch
currently across the remainder of the area will likely need to be
extended into Thursday for portions of the watch area. All total,
the QPF forecast through Thursday has generally 3-6", with locally
higher amounts across southside Hampton Roads into northeast North
Carolina.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms develop across the region
later this morning and especially this afternoon into tonight as
a cold front slowly approaches. Heavy showers/storms have
already developed in the vicinity of RIC to start off the
period, expect this activity to slowly spread south later this
morning while also increasing in coverage. Any heavier showers
or thunderstorms today will have the potential to briefly reduce
VSBYs (likely to IFR). In addition, any stronger thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce localized wind gusts of 50+
knots. The thunderstorm threat transitions to a heavy rain
threat later this evening into tonight, with the heaviest rain
likely across the southern half of the area. CIGs will also
lower to MVFR (and potentially IFR) late this evening through
tonight. Winds outside of convection will gust to 15-20 kts
from the SW for a majority of the period, winds become N-NW
late in the period as the front drops through the area.

Outlook: Additional rounds of storms are possible through
Thursday, and intermittent flight restrictions are likely. Rain
and storm chances shift south by late week, but could still
impact KORF/KPHF down to KECG.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the local waters
  until this afternoon.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible today through tomorrow with
  gusty winds and reduced visibility from heavy rain likely

Latest observations show that gusty SW winds are continuing early
this morning ahead of a cold front. Winds are generally 20-25kt with
gusts to 30kt over the bay, lower James, Currituck Sound, and
coastal waters. Occasional gusts up to 34kt have been observed as
well. Thunderstorms across northern waters have prompted multiple
SMWs for stronger gusts around 40kt. Small Craft Advisories are of
course still in effect for all of the nearshore waters. No changes
have been made to these advisories since yesterday. Windy conditions
continue through the morning, then diminish this afternoon and
evening. SCAs will be in effect through 1 PM Wed for the Ches. Bay,
Currituck Sound, and tidal rivers and 6 PM for the coastal waters. A
surge of northerly winds is possible late tonight into early Thurs
with gusts to 20 kt in the Ches. Bay, which could need another SCA.
Lighter NE winds are likely Thurs afternoon and into the weekend.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected from today through
Thurs morning. Some storms may be severe with strong, erratic winds.
The highest risk is today through overnight across the VA and MD
waters. Additional strong to severe storms are possible Wed into
Thurs.

Seas of 4-5 ft for southern nearshore waters and 5-6 ft for the
northern nearshore waters are forecast this morning (6-7 ft
offshore). Waves up to 4 ft expected in the bay. 5+ ft seas may
linger into the evening.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ022>025.
NC...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-
     102.
VA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for VAZ097-098-529>531.
     Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-065>069-
     076>090-092-099-100-509>520-522>525-528.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/AJZ
AVIATION...AJB/AC
MARINE...AC