Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

659
FXUS61 KAKQ 130003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
803 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00z Aviation discussion. Seeing increasing chances that some
strong to SVR storms will be possible Monday.

SCAs continue into late this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry with seasonable temperatures Friday and Saturday. A few
showers possible on Sunday, but otherwise remaining mild along
the coast, warmer inland.

2) Another strong cold front approaches early next week,
bringing the potential for strong to severe storms Monday, with
below normal temperatures to follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 755 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with seasonable temperatures Friday and
Saturday. A few showers possible on Sunday, but otherwise
remaining mild along the coast, warmer inland.

An upper level shortwave, embedded within a potent upper level
trough, has pushed offshore of the Delmarva coast as of this
writing, with quick clearing behind the system. At the sfc, the
attendant sfc cold front and a meso low have pivoted offshore of
the mid-Atlantic and Carolina coast. Cold air advection (N
winds) behind the system will diminish overnight. Temperatures
have largely become hung up in the lower and middle 30s over the
region, but will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s overnight
(locally warmer at the coast in the far SE).

Seasonably cool and dry weather returns Friday, with highs
bouncing back into the mid to upper 50s for most, under a
mostly sunny sky. Sfc high pressure becomes centered to our
south, as the next low pressure system rapidly moves east across
the Great Lakes, brining a quick shift in the winds back to the
SSW by later morning and Fri aftn. In fact, it will become
quite breezy once again with gusts to 25-30 mph. Dry and turning
warmer Sat through early Sunday with highs in the 60s, and lows
mainly in the lower 40s. The next upper level trough starts to
amplify over the central CONUS Sunday, with increasing clouds,
but turning mild to warm with highs into the 60s to lower 70s.
There is a low end chc for a few showers late Sunday, though NBM
PoPs may be overdone.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front approaches early next week,
bringing the potential for strong to severe storms Monday, with below
normal temperatures to follow.

The latest models are in decent agreement with a strong mid/upper
level trough, almost becoming cutoff near the Great Lakes by
Monday evening. At the sfc, intense low pressure of forecast to
lift NE from the mid-MS/lower OH Valley to the Great Lakes late
Sun night/early Mon. With the upper low and sfc low almost co-
located, the models have trended to secondary sfc low/trough
development across the Appalachians Mon aftn. That system will
eventually drag a cold front through the area Monday night.
Ahead of the front, warm and somewhat humid wx is expected on
Mon with highs in the 70s and dew pts potentially in the lower-
mid 60s. A band of showers and storms is likely across the area
from Monday-Monday evening. If the secondary sfc trough/mesolow
does develop, some backing of the low level wind field would
develop, enhancing what will already be decent shear. SPC has
the region outlooked already, which is somewhat uncommon for the
mid-Atlantic. While there is still a lot of uncertainty with all
of these features coming together, this pattern does support a
all types of potential severe WX. Ina addition, the airmass
behind this will be much cooler and significantly drier, often a
feature of severe WX in the spring. Highs only in the 40s Tue-
Wed, with hard freeze probable for much of the area Tue night.
Gradually trending warmer by late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Thursday...

Rapid improvement behind a departing weather system early this
evening. VFR conditions have returned across area terminals, and
will persist through the 00z/13 TAF period. Winds diminish this
evening, but veer around to the SSW tomorrow. Winds then become
gusty late Fri morning and Fri afternoon, to ~20-30 kt with
gustiest winds inland. Dry/VFR conditions persist through at
least Sat night.

A dynamic system crosses north of the region tomorrow afternoon
into Saturday. The associated warm front lifts through the
region tomorrow afternoon and evening, with some LLWS possible
across area terminals Fri evening/early Sat, as the trailing
(weakening) cold front drops toward the region and sfc winds
relax.

Outlook: VFR conditions return persist into early Sunday. A
strong cold front will bring the potential for flight restrictions
in SHRA/TSRA Monday, along with strong, gusty southerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 755 PM EDT Thursday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
  and coastal waters into late this evening.

The strong cold front has pushed well south of the area and
offshore with steep pressure rises and strong cold air advection
in the wake of the front. Winds will decrease this evening and
overnight, as the surge of colder air relaxes and high pressure
builds in. Seas of 4-6 ft will slowly subside, but remain
elevated into the overnight hours.

Winds become southerly overnight as high pressure builds in
from the southwest. Southerly winds increase Friday afternoon
with SCA conditions likely from the NC/VA north to Fenwick and
over the Bay, as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the
next front. The weak front will push through late Friday night
into early Saturday morning. Behind the front NW winds will be
lighter.

More tranquil marine conditions are expected Saturday into the first
half of Sunday before the next strong system approaches the region
late Sunday into Monday. Winds increase again Sunday night and
Monday with the potential for gale conditions ahead and behind
the front on Monday and Monday night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/LKB/MAM
MARINE...LKB/RHR