Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

842
FXUS61 KAKQ 011918
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
218 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion.

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather continues into the middle of this week with a
gradual warming trend.

2) A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but
confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also
expected to continue through at least the first few days of
November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues into the middle of this week
with a gradual warming trend.

A well-defined area of high pressure is centered just offshore of
the NJ coastline this afternoon. An unsettled pattern is in place in
the TN Valley vicinity, with a shortwave traversing through these
areas. A deeper/stronger trough is traversing the western CONUS. A
large area of cloudiness is associated with both of these systems,
and waves of mid- to high-level clouds continue to move over our
area and will continue to do so for the next few days. Otherwise,
it`s another beautiful fall day locally, with air temps in the mid
60s and dew points in the 40s. Expect another chilly night, but not
excessively so, with lows temps ranging through the 40s
(potentially some upper 30s well inland and on the MD Eastern
Shore). These temps are generally a few degrees too warm for
appreciable frost concerns.

That shortwave will move across the local area Monday, followed by a
building ridge over the eastern/northeastern CONUS Tuesday into
Wednesday. Other than variable cloudiness, dry weather is expected
to continue due to limited moisture at the sfc. A warming trend also
begins Monday (highs mid 60s to around 70 F) and continues into
Tuesday (highs lower to mid 70s) and Wednesday (highs mid to upper
70s). Depending on cloud coverage, could also approach 80 F across
portions of interior srn VA and NE NC Wednesday. Overnight lows also
gradually moderate from the 40s Monday night to around 60 F
Wednesday night.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday,
but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also
expected to continue through at least the first few days of November.

A strong low pressure system at the surface and aloft will initially
move from the Rockies into the northern Plains and Midwest early in
the week, while a trailing cold front eventually tries to advance
toward the area in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Shower chances
return by Thursday into Thursday night as the trailing cold front
gets close to the area. Unsurprisingly, the downward trend in precip
coverage and amounts has continued with the 12z deterministic and
ensemble runs, with the ECMWF/EPS suite similar to the 00z and the
GFS/GEFS suite drier. Probabilities for >0.5" generally remain in
the 30-50% range, but are a little higher over the lower MD Eastern
Shore where negligibly-more favorable forcing will reside. Overall,
the local area still appears to reside in a relative QPF minima as
the appreciable height falls are displaced well N of the region. The
40-50% PoPs remain in place during this timeframe, but this should
not be a washout and more like a `scattered showers` regime. Highs
remain at least in the low-mid 70s through the end of the week, with
dew points potentially rising well into the 60s by late week. As of
now, the front is forecast to eventually move through sometime
Friday. Uncertainty remains beyond this as some guidance depicts a
cut-off low and associated sfc low developing offshore.

There won`t be much in the way of appreciable CAA behind the
front, and above average temperatures may continue through next
weekend. There remain no potential freezes in the forecast as
the more substantial cold air remains in the northern half of
Canada for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail at the local terminals through at least
midweek, with mostly SCT-BKN mid or high-level cloud cover. ENE
5-10 kt winds this afternoon diminish to 5 kt or less tonight,
except at the immediate coast. Generally light winds continue
into Monday and remain out of the E-NE.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through at
least Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week,
but confidence remains low on coverage and any potential
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 145 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions persist through mid-week before a potential
  weather system approaches late in the week.

A broad area of 1034+ mb surface high pressure remains centered over
the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. The high will slide offshore
overnight, with winds veering to the E-SE 5-10 kt tonight into
tomorrow. Winds remain easterly 10 kt or less through midweek as the
surface high lingers offshore. Waves 1-2 ft, Seas 2-3 ft (highest
southern waters and at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay).

Keeping an eye on a potential weather system developing off the
southeast coast late in the week. This system could bring our first
rain chances in weeks, as well as southeasterly winds, though
confidence is a bit lower. Additionally, a building SE swell from
the southeast could raise seas into SCA range nearshore late this
week into next weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM