Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

927
FXUS61 KAKQ 261104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
704 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall across the Piedmont today.

- Marginal Severe Risk for Day 2 (Wed 5/27).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall are
expected today. Additional showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
will continue the heavy rainfall threat with also a marginal
risk of severe thunderstorms.

2) Drier weather returns to end the week and likely continues
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy
rainfall are expected today. Additional showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday will continue the heavy rainfall threat
with also a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper ridge over the
subtropical western Atlantic early this morning, with an upper
trough from eastern TX through the lower Mississippi Valley
region. Between these features, a deep moist plume of moisture
extends from the Gulf up through the Deep South and eventually
rotates across the top of the ridge to the Mid-Atlantic. Locally
at the surface, a stationary front extends from SW VA through
central VA to the central Delmarva. A very moist airmass is in
place with PW values of 1.8-2.0". Heavy rain from showers/tstms
dissipated a few hours ago. However, areas of light rain and/or
drizzle linger in vicinity of the boundary, along with low
stratus clouds.

The stationary front remains over the area today, and may
actually nudge a little southward during the day, before slowly
nudging back to the N/NE by tonight. The exact position of the
front will dictate where the heaviest rainfall falls, and also
where tstms are favored. Surface-based instability (and tstms)
are likely along and S of the front, with much lower storm
chances to the N. Given a potential slight nudge to the S, the
best coverage of showers/tstms may initially be S of the highest
QPE axis from yesterday, primarily across s-central/SE VA into
NE NC. However, as the front begins to lift N/NE this evening
the 26/00z HREF does have a modest signal for excessive rainfall
across the Piedmont this evening. This area has been placed in
a `slight risk` ERO for today/tonight given that this could fall
concurrent with yesterdays heavy QPE axis across the Piedmont.
A stronger tstm or two is also possible, but the severe threat
is quite low given meager lapse rates and only modest shear. The
front`s location also has implications on the temperature
forecast. At this point, the warmest temperatures are favored
from southern VA into NC, though the gradient will probably be a
bit more than currently indicated in the forecast.

Showers/tstms dissipate and lift NE tonight as the front
retreats to the N/NE along with the loss of diurnal heating. By
Wednesday, there will likely to be a mostly dry period in the
morning/early aftn, with higher PoPs late in the day into the
evening. This timing allowing for increased instability, better
low level lapse rates, and somewhat drier air aloft has led to
the Day 3 Marginal SVR threat carrying into the new Day 2
period, with 5% probs for damaging winds as the primary threat.
Increasing 0-6km bulk shear to 30-40kt and 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE could lead to more organized storm clusters.
Additionally, heavy rain will remain a threat as PW values
remain 1.8-2.0". Warmer area-wide Wednesday with highs into the
mid- upper 80s for much of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier weather returns to end the week and
likely continues into next weekend.

A cold front arrives from the north Wednesday night, and
gradually push south of the area late Wednesday night/early
Thursday as a trough digs out of Eastern Canada into the
Northeast CONUS. High chc to likely PoPs linger into Wednesday
evening (highest E/SE) in advance of the front, but after that
an influx of drier air should shut off precip chances into
Thursday. Undercut NBM PoPs a bit on Thursday (still maintaining
chc PoPs in the south into the aftn). NBM PoPs are mainly 20%
or less Thursday, with locally 30-40% in interior NE NC with
some low-level convergence and locally higher dewpoints, but
these values overall are probably generous. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny and less humid but due to a well mixed BL,
forecast high temperatures remain in the 80-85F range Thursday.
Friday will be mild and dry as high pressure settles from the
Great Lakes to the local area with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80 F inland, and in the mid 70s for coastal areas, after
a pleasant morning with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

By this weekend, another trough digs out of Canada and pushes
another cold front south across the Mid-Atlantic. However, the
latest trends are for a stronger northern stream, which suppress
the moisture S. 26/00z EPS/GEFS each depict PW values remaining
below normal through the weekend, and even into early next
week. For now, NBM PoPs are 20% or less N of the VA/NC border,
and 20-30% in NE NC. High temperatures will be below average by
about 5-10 degrees, generally in the lower to mid 70s, with lows
in the 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast. Overall, quite
pleasant for the end of May into the beginning of June.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...

A stationary front lingered from near RIC to immediately S of
SBY as of 12z. Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs were present or
developing along the boundary. IFR/LIFR cigs are expected to
expand to persist early this morning given abundant low-level
moisture. IFR/LIFR cigs should prevail at RIC, SBY, and PHF
through the morning, with primarily MVFR at ORF and ECG, with
brief IFR possible at ORF through 14z. Cigs largely improve to
MVFR later in the morning into the aftn, with IFR persisting the
longest at SBY. Additional showers/tstms with heavy rain
develop later this morning into the aftn as the boundary lingers
over the region. Any showers/tstms have the potential to
produce IFR/LIFR vsby in heavy rain. The wind will mainly be
calm to light out of the E/NE along and N of the front, and SW
5-10kt to the S of the front. Additional IFR cigs are likely to
develop tonight from RIC to SBY as the stationary front lingers
across the region.

Outlook: Conditions remain unsettled Wednesday aftn/evening as
showers/tstms develop during the aftn and evening (along with
early AM CIGs/reduced VSBYs Wednesday morning). A more
significant cold front pushes through late Wednesday night
night/Thursday, with drier air, N winds and VFR conditions
Thursday through Friday. Another cold front arrives by Saturday,
but most guidance depicts this as a dry frontal passage with
increased northerly winds and VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Marine dense fog remains a concern today, particularly north
  of Parramore Island on the ocean.

- Sub-SCA winds and seas prevail through most of this week.
  Thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds and waves today
  and Wednesday.

The weak frontal boundary that has resided near or over the
area the past several days is situated just north of the waters
this morning. The wind direction varies from the SW in the
southern waters to a light W/NW or variable wind in the northern
waters. The light flow and moist airmass continues to
exacerbate fog concerns, with < 1 NM visbilities likely present
N of Parramore Island on the ocean. A Dense Fog Advisory is now
in effect through the early afternoon. Additional fog is
possible through the day and could expand southward this
afternoon and evening, but confidence is not particularly high.
Additionally, showers and isolated storms are again possible
today with the highest probability in the lower Chesapeake Bay
and S of Cape Charles on the ocean. These will be in association
with the aforementioned front, which will slowly drop southward
through the day. In general, the SW wind this morning should
become rather variable later today with the front nearby. A
gradual shift back to the S and SW is then expected tonight into
Wednesday as the front lifts back N. Seas average 2-3 ft with
1-2 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay during this time.

A stronger cold front drops southward across the area early
Thursday with the wind becoming northerly. While a brief surge
in northerly winds is possible along and just behind the front
late Thursday morning, conditions should mostly stay sub-SCA.
High pressure builds in from NW Friday with light winds. A
stronger system could bring a period of N/NE winds this weekend,
with gradually building seas and potential SCAs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW