Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

610
FXUS61 KAKQ 061036
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
636 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

Rainfall amounts through Thursday have trended slightly lower
across northern portions of the area. In addition, there is the
potential for an isolated stronger storm this evening into
tonight.

Rain chances have diminished slightly for Saturday and increased
later Sunday into Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front brings beneficial rain shower and thunderstorm
chances to the region later today into Thursday.

2) Another cold front likely crosses the area later Sunday into
Monday, bringing additional chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings beneficial rain shower and
thunderstorm chances to the region today into Thursday.

Early this morning, a cold front is slowly approaching from our
northwest, currently moving through the Ohio Valley. This front
will continue to approach from the northwest today into
tonight, crossing the area during the Thursday morning
timeframe. This front will bring at least the potential for some
beneficial rainfall to portions of the area. During most of the
daylight hours today, the highest rain chances will likely be
confined to the NW half of the forecast area. Latest high-res
models have weakening showers approaching the western portions
of the area ~9 AM and continuing to diminish as they head
eastward and move through drier air. After this activity, only
isolated to scattered showers (or storms) are expected for a
majority of the day. As we head into this evening and tonight,
we will need to watch the potential for at least a few stronger
storms, with the best potential across southwestern portions of
the area. While instability might be lacking (MLCAPE < 500
J/kg), effective wind shear will range from ~30 to 50 knots.
This will allow for at least the potential for some stronger
wind gusts if storms are able to develop. SPC currently has the
area in a Day 1 general thunderstorm outlook, with a Marginal
Risk well to the SW. Otherwise, it will be another breezy day
today ahead of the front with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.
Cloud cover will keep temperatures lower today compared to
yesterday with highs forecast to reach the upper 70s to lower
80s.

The best rain chances for beneficial rainfall continue to be
tonight through the first half of Thursday as the front moves
across the forecast area. Total QPF will likely range from
~0.50" north to ~1.00" south. Various CAMs show the potential
for pockets of 1.00" (potentially up to 2.00") of QPF across the
southern half of the area where we may see more convective
elements. A few thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, though
instability will be limited due to the timing of FROPA, thus not
anticipating any severe weather. The highest rain chances on
Thursday will be during the morning hours, before PoPs begin to
diminish from NW to SE during the afternoon hours. Much cooler
temperatures are expected on Thursday with temperatures likely
struggling to get out of the 50s or lower 60s for much of the
forecast area due to widespread clouds/rain. Some
clearing/sunshine is possible late in the day, especially across
the NW. Temperatures remain slightly below average on Friday
(upper 60s to lower 70s), but moderate to near average by
Saturday (mid to upper 70s), and above average to close out the
weekend on Sunday (80s). Finally, a few showers or isolated
storms will be possible on Saturday as a quick moving
disturbance crosses the area, the better rain chances will be
later Sunday into Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Another cold front likely crosses the area
later Sunday into Monday, bringing additional chances for rain.

Another cold front likely crosses the area late Sunday night or
Monday morning, bringing the potential for additional
beneficial rainfall. Rain showers may begin as early as Sunday
afternoon and continue through much of the day Monday. Both the
00z GEFS and EPS average around 0.50" of QPF with this system at
this time. High pressure and cooler temperatures likely returns
for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail as of the start of the 12z/06 TAF period
High pressure remains centered offshore today as a cold front
is slow to approach from the NW. Therefore, a SW wind will
remain breezy increasing to ~15kt with gusts ~25kt. Mid-level
cloud cover increases this morning. There is a minimal chc of
light showers from RIC to SBY mid-morning to early afternoon,
but VFR conditions will prevail. Shower chances increase later
this evening, with a higher probability of showers (possible
embedded thunderstorms) and more widespread flight restrictions
possible later tonight. MVFR to potentially IFR CIGs develop at
RIC and SBY around 03z, spreading SE to the remaining sites by
06z. Sub-VFR CIGs will then continue through the remainder of
the forecast period.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions continue through the first half of
Thursday due to widespread rain/low CIGs. Conditions gradually
improve from NW to SE later Thursday afternoon into the evening.
VFR conditions return Thursday night into Friday. A quick
moving system will bring a potential for showers Saturday, with
another quick moving system approaching from the W Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue for the Ches. Bay, tidal rivers,
and northern coastal waters through at least early afternoon.

- Generally sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions Thursday through the
weekend

A cold front was positioned over the OH valley early this morning,
continuing to slowly approach the east coast. Ahead of it, the
tightening pressure gradient is allowing gusty conditions to
continue. Latest obs indicate a southwest wind of 20 to 25 kt over
the Ches bay, rivers, and northern coastal waters. Sustained winds
are closer to 15kt over the coastal waters south of Cape Charles and
over the Currituck Sound. Therefore, the SCA was allowed to expire
earlier tonight. SCAs for the remaining marine zones are ongoing.
Seas are 4-5ft north of Cape Charles, 3-4ft to the south. As those
5ft seas recede north and the winds drop off a few knots, the SCA
for the nearshore waters between Cape Charles and Parramore Island
will be allowed to expire as well. Waves in the bay are 3-4ft.

Similar to yesterday, elevated and gusty winds will continue through
much of today thanks to a combination of day time mixing, a LLJ
overhead, and a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the cold
front. Gusts nearshore will again be higher given the better mixing
over the land. Sustained winds of 15-20kt and gusts to 25kt. The
front crosses into the region and across local waters late tonight
into early tomorrow morning. Winds will shift to the NW, then N,
behind the front. Winds are expected to diminish during the frontal
passage, then increase again on Thursday after the wind shift.
Latest guidance suggests this post-frontal surge won`t be very
strong. It may require a brief SCA for portions of the Ches. Bay,
but it would be a low-end one with gusts around 20kt. Winds then
diminish Thurs evening to ~10kt. Largely sub-SCA conditions expected
for the end of the week and the weekend with high pressure overhead
leading to variable wind directions. Will likely see a brief
increase in winds Fri morning as dry air returns, but gusts should
mostly stay under 20kt. Breezy south winds return Sat as WAA
ensues.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC