Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

567
FXUS61 KAKQ 160654
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
254 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook area has been expanded
  to include all but far southeast Virginia and northeast North
  Carolina on Sunday. Slight Risk Severe Weather Outlook now
  includes all but coastal MD and our NC counties. Increasing
  chances for showers and storms presenting both a severe and
  flood risk for late this afternoon and evening

- Probabilities for Heat headlines have largely held steady, but
  still look likely over our southern tier of counties,
  including much of Hampton Roads into northeast NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and more humid today with more widespread late day
and evening showers and storms expected. Strong to severe storms
and localized flash flooding will be possible.

2) Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of the next
cold front. Heat Advisories are likely to be needed for Hampton
Roads into Northeast NC on Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and more humid today with more
widespread late day and evening showers and storms expected.
Strong to severe storms and localized flash flooding will be
possible.

Another active weather day across the Mid-Atlantic, though model
guidance has trended slightly later with storm onset. The
expansive upper ridge over the southern tier will slowly dampen
today as shortwave energy digs across the Ohio Valley. At the
surface, southerly return flow will push the boundary north as a
warm front, transporting a tropical airmass (PWATs 2.252.4")
back into the region.

Early morning satellite imagery shows an MCV pushing east
across SE OH into southwest Pennsylvania/N WV. Good agreement
across the past few CAM runs that these showers spread east
through sunrise, potentially producing light showers over the VA
Piedmont and northern counties by mid-morning, reaching the
Eastern Shore by early afternoon. Increased cloud cover and
lingering showers will delay diurnal destabilization
temporarily. Farther to the SSW, the front is projected to push
into the Piedmont toward I-95 this afternoon, with MLCAPE values
rising into the 10001500 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon.

Additional spokes of shortwave energy cross the region late
today, likely triggering another round of scattered to numerous
showers and storms after 45 PM into this evening, with strong
to severe storms possible. Deep-layer shear of ~2530
knotsdecent for mid-Augustwill support multicells and bowing
line segments capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 5060+
mph. While less likely, all modes of severe weather remain
possible, as strong mesoscale convergence along the warm front
and DPVA ahead of the approaching shortwave assist in forcing
locally stronger updrafts. Additionally, E-SE winds along the
warm front and 01 km SRH values of 150200 m/s will maintain
potential rotation and an isolated tornado threat. SPC
highlights most of our area north of the VA/NC line in a Slight
Risk, with a Marginal Risk for coastal Maryland and our North
Carolina counties.

Aside from the severe threat, heavy rainfall is a concern as
steering flow gradually slows this evening. Slow-moving or back-
building storms could result in scattered instances of flash
flooding. WPC maintains a Slight Risk ERO covering much of
central and eastern VA, mainly north of US-460 and west of the
Chesapeake Bay.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday
ahead of the next cold front. Heat Advisories are likely to be
needed for Hampton Roads into Northeast NC on Monday.

Hot, humid conditions look to peak on Monday ahead of an
approaching cold front, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s.
High temperatures combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s will yield heat indices of 105+ across southern/southeastern
portions of the area and 100105 elsewhere. Heat Advisories will
likely be needed for North Carolina counties, Hampton Roads, and
possibly even into south-central Virginia. Some scattered
showers and storms are also expected Monday afternoon/evening
along the lingering frontal boundary. Drier and slightly cooler
conditions arrive for Tuesday through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Predominate VFR is persists over most of the TAF sites. A
stationary front south of the local area will begin to lift N as
a warm front overnight into Sunday. Remnant showers may try to
approach far northern/western portions of the area later this
morning, but confidence in any direct impacts at the TAF sites
remains low. Light E/SE winds have allowed for some patchy
ground fog/low stratus, mainly around the KPHF terminal and have
allowed for some brief flight restrictions, including some
short-lived IFR/LIFR VSBY through 8-9z or so.

More widespread showers/tstms develop this afternoon. This will
bring the potential from brief sub- VFR conditions as well as
the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts. The wind will
primarily be SSE 8-12kt this afternoon outside of any
showers/tstms. Have again included PROB30s to account for
developing convection late today into tonight.

Outlook: Showers/tstms linger into tonight with localized sub-
VFR conditions possible. Unsettled conditions continue on Monday
afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Mainly dry/VFR conditions return through midweek as high
pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and
coastal waters N of Cape Charles this afternoon into tonight due to
increasing southerly winds and building seas.

- Showers and storms are also expected today, some of which could be
strong to severe.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through midday. Winds are
light from the ESE and SE this morning and will become S and
increase this afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to
tighten some as a weak front approaches and Small Craft Advisory
conditions are expected to develop in the Chesapeake Bay this
afternoon and the ocean by the late afternoon/evening hours.
Sustained winds will generally be 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt
(highest N of Cape Charles on the ocean). Seas briefly build to 4-5
ft and will again be highest N of Cape Charles. Waves 3-4 ft on the
Ches Bay. Showers/storms could also produce locally higher winds
late today. Winds and seas subside by mid-morning Monday.
Thereafter, light flow and benign conditions are favored into the
middle and end of next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...JDM/SW