Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

254
FXUS61 KAKQ 111740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
140 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Heat and humidity persists today across the south, along
with isolated to scattered showers and storms area-wide late in
the day and into tonight.

2) An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of the week.
However, uncertainty remains high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity persists today across the
south, along with isolated to scattered showers and storms
area-wide late in the day and into tonight.

Early afternoon weather analysis indicated a WNW flow aloft
with the Bermuda high now getting shunted farther south to the
Gulf coast and Bahamas. The latest radar indicates two MCSs with
one centered over WV an the other upstream over IN.

With the airmass overturned from yesterday`s widespread convection
across VA/MD and the remnant cloud cover from the MCS this
morning, today`s SVR potential is highly uncertain. Mesoanalysis
depicted significant CIN across the area early this afternoon.
However, it also shows CIN eroding by late this afternoon. As
such, still think that thunderstorms hold off until late this
afternoon into tonight. CAMs continue to struggle with the
convection which is unsurprising given that there are multiple
MCSs. Therefore, confidence remains low. However, the general
consensus from CAMs is that convection will primarily track SE
into SW VA this afternoon, largely sparing the local area. This
solution does make sense given visible satellite and radar
which shows the WV MCS diving SSE and a line of storms
stretching between that MCS and the stronger MCS in IN. Normally
when there is a line of storms ahead of an MCS oriented in a
direction that the MCS is moving, the MCS ends up tracking along
that line of storms which gives an indication as to where it
will go. This would line up with CAMs. However, the stronger MCS
in IN is currently tracking north of the NW/SE oriented line of
storms. Therefore, we will have to wait and see if the MCS ends
up tracking along the line of storms (and largely missing the
local area) or if it ends up tracking a bit north (which could
bring a higher chance for severe storms to the local area late
this afternoon into tonight). Will also note that there may be
enough clearing across SE VA/NE NC for additional storm
development (similar to what happened yesterday). Given the
uncertainties, have PoPs gradually increasing into this evening
with the highest PoPs between 8 PM and 2 AM (30-45%).

SPC has locations generally west of I-95 in a slight (level 2/5)
risk for severe storms today with the rest of the area under a
marginal risk (level 1/5). The main threat is damaging winds
given seasonably strong shear of 25-35 kt and high DCAPE (1000
J/kg along and south of the VA/NC border). In addition, a
marginal ERO is in effect for most of the region (with a Slight
nudging into the far NW). Have maintained a small Heat Advisory
for the interior NE NC zones along the Albemarle sound where
sfc dew pts should be several degrees higher, along with highs
into the mid 90s, leading to heat indices of 105+ for a few
hours. However, temps and dew points (especially temps) are
lower than model guidance given the overturned airmass and
lingering clouds/stability. As such, confidence in reaching Heat
Advisory criteria has decreased. However, given the clearing
occuring in NE NC, will continue the Heat Advisory for now in
case conditions are reached later this afternoon. Elsewhere,
highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat
indices in the mid 90s to around 100F.


KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled pattern continues through the
remainder of the week, trending to a cooler and somewhat drier
start to the weekend. However, uncertainty remains high.

WNW flow aloft continues Wed through the remainder of the week
as a ridge aloft is expected to continue through late in the
week as an upper level ridge builds across the central CONUS,
and eventually shifts E-SE across the deep south. Meanwhile, a
trough lingers across New England and eastern Canada. Expect an
active pattern with the daily potential for isolated to
scattered storms each afternoon/evening.

SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms
across southern portions of the FA Wed. However, confidence
continues to remain low given uncertainty in aforementioned MCS
timing and impacts. For now, have largely kept NBM PoPs
(30-35% SW to 15-25% NE) to account for the potential for
isolated to scattered storms. Beyond Wed, the pattern remains
similar with mostly only a slight chance (15-25%) for a few
isolated showers or storms on Thu (and only general thunder
risk) with a better chance on Fri (30-40% PoPs). Outside of
convection, temps remain near the warm side of normal with highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu and upper 80s to
lower 90s Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Tuesday...

Generally VFR conditions prevail at the terminals this afternoon.
PHF is reporting some spotty HZ, but CIGs are generally being
observed at FL100 or higher, with the exception being a ECG where a
few low-level cumulus are developing. Winds are light out of the
southwest. As far as any evening thunderstorm development goes,
there is a lot of uncertainty, so have decided to maintain PROB30 at
most terminals, but have pushed the timing back a few hours. If
thunderstorms do develop and move across the terminals this evening
into tonight, brief degraded flight conditions will occur. Showers
and storms should diminish after 06z/07z.

Outlook: Expect predominate VFR conditions prevail through Thu.
However, daily low-end chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms exists each day. Along with this comes a chance for early
morning stratus/ground fog each late night/early morning Wednesday
through Friday AM.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through most of
  the week.

Morning weather analysis shows high pressure continuing to sit well
offshore, with a weak surface low over New England. The pressure
gradient from these two systems continues to remain weak but just
strong enough to keep the winds out of the W around 10kt with some
gusts around 15 kt. Seas this morning are around 1-2ft across the bay
and 2-3ft across the ocean. Through the morning and into the
afternoon of today, winds will shift out of the WSW and remain
around 10 kt with gusts nearing 15kt. Seas will remain quite benign
and not change much through the day and stay around 1-2ft in the bay
and 2-3 ft across the ocean. In terms of storm chances for this
afternoon, models continue to back off on scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. This is due to the possibility of cloud
cover lingering from this mornings ongoing convection to the west.
However, if the clouds are able to clear and daytime heating is able
to take place the threat for a strong to severe storm cannot be
ruled out. The main threat with these storms would be strong winds
greater than 34kt. Greater convective coverage is possible on
Wednesday but with low confidence on the details. Otherwise, benign
marine conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the week.

By the end of the week a  cold front will gradually approach and
shift winds to the N-NE by late Friday into next weekend. Models are
generally keeping the winds rather light, but if the front actually
pushes south of the waters, this would potentially bring SCAs, but
uncertainty is high at this range.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-031-
     032.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/RMM
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...HET/RHR