Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

125
FXUS61 KAKQ 251803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
103 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Storm Warnings continue for the majority of the region
this morning through Sunday night for coastal areas and Monday
evening for inland areas, excluding far northeast North
Carolina. Winter Storm warnings have been cancelled for the
Cities of Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach as
well as Northampton County, VA where temperatures have risen
into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Winter Weather Advisories remain
in effect for Chowan and Bertie counties northeastern North
Carolina, but have been cancelled to the east where temperatures
have risen into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Winter Storm impacts are ongoing this morning and will continue
today and tonight. Mixed precipitation this morning will transition
to rain along the coast and mainly freezing rain for inland areas
west of the bay.

2) A prolonged period of very cold temperatures is expected to
persist through much of next week with the potential for
temperatures to remain below freezing for several days over most of
the area. Impacts from the winter storm are likely to last well into
next week due to the very cold temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Winter Storm impacts are ongoing this morning and
will continue today and tonight. Mixed precipitation this morning
will transition to rain along the coast and mainly freezing rain for
inland areas west of the bay.

Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories continue unchanged with this
forecast cycle but some adjustments to warning/advisory timing
are possible for southeast and eastern portions of the area as
warmer air moves onshore today.

High pressure is centered over New England early this morning with
low pressure over central MS and an inverted trough along the
Carolina coast. The high over New England is providing ample low
level cold/dry air into the region. Surface temperatures remain
quite cold with the northwestern 2/3 of the area in the mid to
upper teens. Warmer air has started to move onshore across the
SE third with upper 20s to mid 30s noted on area observations.
The transition from pure snow to sleet has begun across most of
the area early this morning. Dual pol correlation coefficient
shows the transition well and this zone lifting up to I-64 near
Richmond as of 230AM. To the southeast, freezing rain has
started to mix in across Hampton Roads and northeastern NC.

Secondary coastal low pressure will continue to deepen this morning.
The majority of the snow and sleet accumulations will occur before
sunrise but an additional 1-2" of snow/sleet is possible across the
far NW (Louisa/Fluvanna and vicinity) into this afternoon. Still
expecting damaging ice accrual near the I-95 and I-85 corridors and
points west today and tonight. Research balloon soundings last night
near Asheville NC sampled a 10 degree C/50 F warm nose aloft (good
luck making it through that snowflakes)! 00z models continue to
bring drier air into the region late tonight with very little in the
way of additional QPF/ice accrual after midnight Monday morning.
This change is largely responsible for the downward trend in total
ice over the last few forecast cycles. With that said, we are still
expecting a large ice impact footprint today through the first half
of tonight. Ice totals greater than 0.25" cover a large area inland
with 0.3-0.5" totals staying focused along and a county or two
either side of I-95. Latest guidance has maintained the faster
transition to plain rain for NE NC and SE VA this morning, spreading
north and westward through early afternoon. 00z guidance generally
agrees that the warmer air will move inland to within 15-20 miles
east of 95. For areas west of this transition zone, temperatures
remain mainly in the 20s with efficient accretion of freezing rain.
This zone will likely transition back to the east a bit Sunday
evening. Significant ice accrual will lead to damaging impacts and
widespread power outages and tree damage. Very cold temperatures and
windy conditions into early next week will lead to long lasting
impacts. Winds pick up on Monday as the system departs, continuing
the threat of additional tree damage and power outages.



KEY MESSAGE 2...A prolonged period of very cold temperatures is
expected to persist through much of next week with the potential for
temperatures to remain below freezing for several days over most of
the area. Impacts from the winter storm are likely to last well into
next week due to the very cold temperatures.

In the wake of the winter storm this weekend, strong high pressure
(1030+ mb) from the Canadian plains will shift over the SE CONUS
with potent upper level troughing. The combination of these features
will keep very cold temperatures over the area through much of next
week. This, along with any snowpack/ice, will likely keep high
temperatures below freezing for an extended period of time over much
of the area. Low temperatures Tuesday night/Wednesday AM will likely
be the coldest we have seen in some time, with readings ranging from
around 0 across the NW Piedmont, to single digits for much of the
inland forecast area, and teens closer to the coast/SE. These cold
temperatures, combined with a W to NW breeze, will result in wind
chills ranging from -10 to -5 inland and 0 to 10 across the
southeast and along the coast. Extreme Cold headlines will likely be
needed for portions of the area with Cold Weather Advisories
elsewhere. Overnight lows in the single digits and teens will be
common for the remainder of the week. Medium range model guidance
continues to show the potential for another Arctic blast for mid to
late week, sending our high temperatures back into the 20s Wednesday
through Friday with overnight lows in lower single digits inland and
teens closer to the coast.

This prolonged period of very cold temperatures behind the winter
storm could be quite dangerous for those without power. It is
important that all take precautions in event that power is unable to
be restored in a timely manner.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 103 PM EST Sunday...

Degraded flight conditions within a mixed bag across the terminals
is ongoing this afternoon. Most of our sites have transitioned to
rain except for RIC, who is still reporting -PL. Rain will continue
at the southern terminals and SBY, while Richmond will likely
transition over to -FZRA over the next few hours. IFR to LIFR CIGs
are being observed this afternoon, which will continue through the
evening and into tonight. By early tomorrow morning, precipitation
will start to taper off, though at least MVFR CIGs will linger for a
few hours after this happens. By mid-morning tomorrow, SBY and RIC
will likely see conditions starting to improve, with MVFR CIGs
lingering a lot longer at the southern terminals. Gusts of 20-25 kt
will continue at SBY through the late afternoon before subsiding
overnight. Winds will shift to the NW overnight, remaining generally
at 10 kt of less through tomorrow morning. WNW wind gusts will pick
up once again tomorrow morning. The threat of southwesterly LLWS
around 40-50 kt remains at SBY, PHF, and ECG from this evening until
around or just after midnight.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions return on Monday with breezy NW
winds. VFR conditions continue through the middle of the week.
There is a low-end chance of light snow Wed night-Thu AM.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 420 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Strong winds continue today (NE to E) as developing coastal
  low pressure slowly lifts NE offshore of the Mid- Atlantic
  coast. Gale Warning are in effect for the Ocean north of Cape
  Charles.

- Gale Watches are in effect for the Ocean north of Cape Charles
  late Monday afternoon through early Tuesday with NW winds.
  High-end Small Craft Advisories will be needed elsewhere.

- Yet another period of high-end Small Craft Advisory to gale
  conditions is possible Thursday night into early Friday.

- Periods of freezing spray are likely Monday night through much of
  the week as an arctic airmass overspreads the region.

Strong ~1040mb high pressure is centered across the St Lawrence
Valley early this morning, with low pressure over the TN Valley,
and secondary low pressure now developing off the SE coast. The
coastal low deepens as it lifts NE along the Outer Banks later
today, and then off the Mid- Atlantic coast this aftn. Strong
pressure falls on the order of -10mb/3hr 15-18z today, combined
with an ENE LLJ ~40kt are expected to bring gale conditions to
the coastal waters N of Cape Charles for a 3-6hr period this
morning into early-mid aftn. Elsewhere, SCA conditions are expected,
Seas build to 6-9ft this aftn, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches.
Bay and 4-6ft in the lower Bay to the mouth of the Bay. The wind
should diminish and shift to westerly as the low pulls to the
NE later this aftn into tonight. Seas remain 4-7ft Monday into
Monday night.

A cold front crosses the coast early Monday. However, stronger CAA
waits until later Monday aftn into Monday night. Gale force gust
probs are 60-95% offshore for the coastal waters N of Cape
Charles, with lower probs elsewhere. This could be  a situation
where the wind will overperform for 3-6hr Monday evening across
the eastern side of the Ches. Bay as well. Have opted to wait
on Gale Watches per coordination with neighboring offices for
the Bay, but did raise them for the ocean where probs are
highest. Seas remain elevated, generally 5-7ft, with 3-5ft
waves in the Ches. Bay.

A period of low-end SCA conditions is possible later Tuesday aftn
and evening. Otherwise, the next period of attention is Thursday
night into early Friday due to CAA behind another strong cold front.
Periods of freezing spray are likely Monday night through much of
the week as an arctic airmass overspreads the region, followed by
another push of arctic air later in the week behind the
aforementioned cold front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for MDZ021.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ022.
NC...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NCZ012>014.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ030.
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-096-509>524.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ634-656-658.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-652.
     Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for
     ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/RHR
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...AJZ/LKB