Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

163
FXUS61 KAKQ 162358
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
758 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Timing for the storm potential today has been further pushed
  back, generally favoring the evening into early tonight.

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for most of NE NC Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The potential remains for some strong-severe storms,
as well as heavy rainfall and localized flooding, mainly this
evening into early tonight.

2) Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of
the next cold front. A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of NE
NC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1..The potential remains for some strong-severe storms,
as well as heavy rainfall and localized flooding, mainly this
evening into early tonight.

Quite the interesting sfc analysis across the local region this
afternoon. The highest dew points (mid-upper 70s) are situated in
the Piedmont with the lowest (mid-upper 60s) closer to the coast.
Unsurprisingly, a north-south oriented warm front bisects our CWA and
is located just E of I-95 as of 3 PM. Light showers are
occuring across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore with mainly
dry conditions elsewhere. Upstream convection is located well NW
of the area (across eastern OH and WV).

The widespread clouds and (light) precip across the area have
introduced some uncertainty into the storm potential, particularly
for this afternoon. Even W of the warm front, satellite imagery is
showing quite a bit of clouds. Still, mesoanalysis indicates gradual
destabilization is underway with 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across our
far western counties. Negligible CAPE is present E of I-95, but this
should gradually chance as we head into the evening. It now seems
likely that the main show today will be in relation to the
aforementioned upstream convection. This activity may not push into
the local area until well into the evening hours and the first part
of tonight, with a relative lull until then. This later timing also
introduces uncertainty into the severe wx potential. Most models
still do show relatively impressive shear (for mid-August) of ~30-35
kt this evening and tonight and this will overlap with height falls
from a quick-moving shortwave trough. So, some severe risk is still
apparent from any cluster or line of storms that can move into our
area. The northern half of the area is most favored for both the
highest coverage and severe potential, but some risk could extend
southward as well. The main risk would be damaging wind gusts, but a
few instances of large hail are possible due to the favorable NW
flow regime and supportive shear values. MCV- or warm front-
augmented low-level shear could also support a low-end tornado
threat.

Aside from the severe threat, heavy rainfall is also a concern and
slow-moving or back-building storms could result in scattered
instances of flash flooding. WPC maintains a Slight Risk ERO
covering much of central and eastern VA, mainly north of US-460 and
west of the Chesapeake Bay.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of
the next cold front. A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of NE
NC.

Hot, humid conditions look to peak on Monday ahead of an
approaching cold front, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s.
Combined with dew points in the mid-upper 70s, heat indices of
105+ are likely for NE NC and potentially SE VA. Have issued a
Heat Advisory for most of our NE NC counties (minus Northampton
NC) where confidence is highest in reaching 105+, in effect from
11 AM-8 PM. Later shifts may need to expand the advisory
further northward into SE VA if it widespread 105+ indices seem
probable. Some scattered showers and storms are also expected
Monday afternoon/evening along the lingering frontal boundary
and localized severe wind and hail is possible in the strongest
storms, mainly for western/SW portions of the local area. Drier
and slightly cooler conditions arrive for Tuesday through
midweek. A stronger cold front looks the cross the area at the
end of week, potentially bringing a more noticeable reduction in
heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions are in place early this evening at the main TAF
sites. A line of strong convection with gusty winds is
approaching RIC from the NW and should impact the terminal over
the next hour or two. Timing convection at SBY is a bit more
uncertain but have maintained at TEMPO group from 02-05z. PROB30
groups continue for ORF and PHF with considerable uncertainty
when or if storms will make it that far SE. Removed the PROB30
from ECG where confidence is even lower. Outside of storms,
some MVFR CIGs and/or VSBY could develop overnight, mainly at
RIC and SBY. VFR expected for the first half of Monday. Isolated
to scattered convection is possible Monday afternoon, mainly
over the southern half of the area.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR conditions return through midweek as
high pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
  and coastal waters N of Cape Charles into tonight due to
  increasing southerly winds and building seas.

- Showers and storms are also this afternoon into tonight, some
  of which could be strong to severe.

This afternoon, a weak front is approaching the waters from the SW
which is causing the pressure gradient to tighten. As a result, S to
SE have started to increase and now average ~15 knots over a
majority of the waters. The pressure gradient tightens further this
evening into tonight, allowing for winds to become 15 to 20 knots
with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. In addition, seas will also briefly
build to 4 to 5 feet and will be highest north of Cape Charles on
the ocean. Across the Chesapeake Bay, waves will briefly build to 3
to 4 feet. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the
Chesapeake Bay and the ocean waters north of Cape Charles into early
Monday morning. Showers and storms may also produce locally higher
wind gusts later an isolated waterspouts later this afternoon into
tonight. Wind and seas subside by mid-morning Monday, with generally
light flow/benign conditions taking hold for much of the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ013>017-
     030>032.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/SW
AVIATION...RHR/SW
MARINE...JDM/SW