Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

136
FXUS61 KAKQ 221924
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
324 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
for the northern half of the forecast area through this evening,
with a southward expansion possible later.

Increased chance in heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms
Tuesday as remnants of an MCV moves across the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms return this evening, with some storms
potentially becoming strong to severe.

2) Another chance for showers and storms returns Tuesday afternoon
into evening, with the potential for heavy downpours and isolated
strong to severe storms.

3) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms return this evening, with some
storms potentially becoming strong to severe.

Latest wx analysis shows a warm front lifted through the area this
morning, now residing north of the Commonwealth. This front has
helped temperatures get to the lower to mid 90s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Breezy southerly winds have increased
this afternoon behind the front due to a well-mixed profile, with
gusts up to 30 mph. This evening, a cold front will approach the
area, providing a forcing mechanism for shower and storm
development. With the warm dewpoints, ample amounts of instability
with MLCAPE values around ~1500 J/kg are presently noted. Better
shear values are observed just to the north of the area, but the
limited amount present (~25-35 kt) will allow for storm growth. PWAT
values have increased across the area to >1.5", which could also
result in localized flash flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.
Decent low level lapse rates from the very warm surface temperatures
favor the potential for cold-pool dominated storms with water-loaded
downdrafts. Damaging winds are the primary threat with any storm,
although cannot rule out large hail. The northern half of the area
from a line roughly west to east across Farmville/Chesterfield/
Mathews/Accomac are now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9
PM. The timing of the convection will likely begin late afternoon to
early evening in the piedmont and reaching the RIC metro around 7-8
PM. Further south, a cap on the environment with less favorable
conditions leaves more uncertainty on how strong storms will be. Any
storms would reach SE VA late evening around 9-10 PM, which is a
less than favorable time for severe storms due to the loss of
daytime heat. If the environment is able to sustain storms, a
downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for portions
outside the current watch.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Another chance for showers and storms returns Tuesday afternoon
into evening, with the potential for heavy downpours and isolated
strong to severe storms.

The aforementioned cold front will be slow to move out of the area
and a subsequent surface low will form along the front and slide
across the area Tuesday as an MCV. With the front slowly crossing
the area Tuesday, warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and
dewpoints in the lower 70s across the SE VA/NE NC will keep
sufficient instability levels throughout the day. PWAT values will
quickly rebound with values >2.0" for areas along the Ches. Bay and
Atlantic Coast. Localized areas could see an additional 1.00-2.00"
of rainfall, with more widespread values of 0.50-1.00" of rainfall
across a large portion of the area Tuesday, on top of any rainfall
tonight. While any and all rain is beneficial, there is a concern
for areas of flash flooding, especially the urban and poor drainage
areas. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe storms (level 1
of 5) as isolated storms may become severe with damaging winds.
There is still some uncertainty with storm development, but the 12z
models have came into better agreement with training showers and
possible storms.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the
weekend.

A drier airmass will take over behind the cold front, keeping
Wednesday dry. Temperatures won`t be much cooler though, with highs
near normal in the mid to upper 80s across the area Wednesday. By
Wednesday night, winds will quickly shift back to the SE-S and bring
back normal June humidity amd temperatures. For the remainder of the
week, a more typical summertime pattern sets up for late week.
Mainly seasonable temperatures are expected, with diurnally driven,
scattered late-day and evening showers and storms possible each day.
Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s, with overnight
lows in the 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions continue through early evening at all terminals.
Gusty southwest winds has picked up across all terminals (gusts to
25 kt), and will decrease this evening to 5-10 kt. Scattered
showers/storms will move west to east across the area this evening.
There is still some uncertainty with the arrival time, but SBY and
RIC have the highest chance in seeing degraded flight conditions
from these storms, as storms will likely lose momentum as they move
eastward given the late time of day. Have included 3 hour TEMPOs for
RIC and SBY beginning 23z and 00z respectively, while maintaining
PROB30s for ECG and ORF from 01z-04/23. Storms look to fall apart
before reaching ECG, so have maintained VCSH for these terminals.
Behind the storms, there will likely be patchy low stratus/fog in
areas that received rainfall. Low-end MVFR CIGs have been included
for RIC and SBY after 06z/23 through sunrise.

Outlook: Additional flight restrictions from more showers/storms
Tuesday is likely, especially across the SE terminals as a front and
surface low moves across the area. Mainly dry/VFR Wednesday. Late
day showers/storms possible Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters through
  tonight with gusty S-SE winds ahead of an approaching system.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected for much of this week.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a low pressure system tracking
across eastern OH and western PA. The pressure gradient ahead of the
low has tightened over the waters allowing winds to increase out of
the S around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the bay and 25kt
across the ocean. Waves are much lower than expected with 1-2ft
across the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Through the rest of the
evening and into tonight, the pressure gradient will continue
to tighten and winds will increase to 20-25kt with some gusts
approaching 30kt. The highest confidence in these 30kt gusts are
across the ocean waters north of the VA/NC border. Small Craft
Advisories have been issued and are in effect for all waters,
now including the Sound and southern coastal waters, as hi-res
guidance continues to gusts around 25kt. Seas will also increase
to 3-4ft across the bay and 4-5ft across the ocean. In addition
to the wind, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late
this afternoon and into tonight. These storms could pose the
risk of gusts greater than 34kt and a waterspout cannot be ruled
out especially across the the far north.

The low will track north and a weak cold front will pass across the
waters tomorrow. Winds shift to the NW by late tomorrow afternoon/
evening behind the front, and may increase slightly tomorrow night.
Will note that additional SCA maybe needed as models continue to
hint on gusts nearing 20kt. Local probs have increased to 50% of
gusts greater than 18kt across the bay tomorrow evening/night.
Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected the rest of the week as
high pressure returns.

Rip current risk has been downgraded for today to moderate due to
reports and the waves being lower than expected. The rip risk looks
to be low through much of this week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-654-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMC/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...ERI/HET