Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

783
FXUS61 KAKQ 061729
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1229 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 18z/06 TAFs.

A Flood Watch has been introduced for SE VA/NE NC through this
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected
today, with a few thunderstorms possible.

2) Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 325 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall
is expected today, with a few thunderstorms possible.

GOES water vapor channels depict a potent upper low centered
over the Great Lakes with the trailing axis back into the
Central Plains. Shortwave energy is evident from WV into PA.
There is essentially a series of cold fronts associated with the
upper trough, with the leading boundary in vicinity of the Blue
Ridge early this morning. A line of showers/tstms has developed
across central VA well in advance of the shortwave and ahead of
the initial cold front where there is a plume of 1000+ J/kg of
MUCAPE. This line of showers/tstms is quickly tracking to the
NE. Brief heavy rain and occasional cloud to ground lightning
are the main hazards. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and quite mild
for early November with temperatures in the mid 60s to around
70F.

The initial cold front will be slow to push E through midday,
before moving E toward the coast later this afternoon and
evening as the parent upper low pushes SE. The airmass ahead of
the trough and leading cold front is very moist for early
November with PW values of 200-250% of normal. Forcing for
ascent will increase along the boundary as it pushes E this
afternoon with moderate to locally heavy rain possible toward
the coast, with the best signal from NE NC into Hampton Roads.
The 06/00z REFS generally depicts QPF of 0.5- 1.0" from the
Piedmont through the RIC metro, increasing to 1.0-1.5" for the
Eastern Shore, and 1.5-2.5" from NE NC into Hampton Roads with
higher amounts possible. Additionally, the REFS has a contour of
a 30% chc of 3"/3hr from NE NC to Hampton Roads from 18-21z
this afternoon, with some moderate rain potentially lingering
into the evening. WPC has maintained a Marginal ERO for the
eastern half of the area. The greatest flood threat will be in
urban locations as the flood threat will be limited in rural
areas due to ongoing drought and low streamflow. A similar
portion of the CWA is covered by a Marginal Severe Risk, mainly
for 5% wind, with a 2% tornado threat in SE VA and NE NC. Bulk-
Shear will generally remain between 35-45kt with MUCAPE waning
through the day but remaining 500-750J/kg in SE portions of the
area, and locally up to 1000J/kg in interior NE NC. These
ingredients together could allow for a brief strong wind gusts
with any stronger tstm embedded within the broader line of
showers. There is also a very small tornado threat due to the
weak 0-1 SRH (~100m^2/s^2), however, confidence remains low at
this time, especially given that low-level lapse rates look
rather poor in forecast soundings.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this
weekend into early next week.

The closed upper low will drop to the WSW from the Eastern
Great Lake into the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England
region on Saturday, reinforcing northwesterly flow locally. Much
cooler and drier air is forecasted to advect into the area,
with high temperatures settling back to seasonal averages. High
temperatures this weekend are expected to be in the lower to mid
60s and into the mid to upper 60s by early next week, and
potentially reaching ~70F Tuesday. Breezy Saturday as wind gusts
will be around 20-25mph out of the NW. Overnight/early morning
lows drop into the mid/upper 40s W and N early Saturday morning,
with mid 50s SE. Lows will then generally be in the mid 30s to
lower 40s later this weekend into early next week. The recent
ensemble guidance is continuing to show dry weather persisting
into the middle of next week as opposed to bringing in any more
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Friday...

A cold front bisects the area, moving from W to E as of 18z/06.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are noted across most of the area
this afternoon bringing flight restrictions. RIC and ECG are
currently under VFR conditions, but showers are moving towards both
terminals, with thunderstorms approaching ECG. PHF and SBY will
continue to see MVFR/IFR restrictions due to CIGs through this
evening, and could see reduced VSBY with heavy showers/storms. ORF
has the worst conditions with LIFR VSBY from heavy rainfall. The
heavy rainfall will likely continue through the afternoon. As the
front pushes W to E, showers and storms will move out, increasing
VSBY. MVFR CIGs will likely linger through most of the night.
Conditions are expected to improve after 06-09z tonight. Winds will
shift NNE behind the cold front around 5-10 kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions anticipated through the weekend into early
next week. Some NW breezes are likely Saturday afternoon and Sunday,
especially across the Eastern Shore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this morning
  for the northern coastal waters due to gusty SSW winds and 3-5
  ft seas.

- Additional Small Craft Advisories have been issued tonight
  into Saturday morning as northerly winds increase behind a
  cold front passage. Another period of SCA conditions is
  possible Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Early morning surface analysis places an area of high pressure
well offshore, with a cold front slowly advancing eastward
through central VA. A tightened pressure gradient continues to
lead to elevated southerly winds as of 3 AM, occasionally
gusting up to 25 kt north of Cape Charles on the ocean. Winds
and wind gusts are a bit lower in the Chesapeake Bay; however,
occasional gusts to 20 kt are possible through the morning
hours. Winds likely remain in the 15-20 kt range on the coastal
waters through the early afternoon. Elevated seas, in the 3-5 ft
range, are also expected through the first half of the day and
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 12z/7 AM between
Cape Charles and Parramore Island and have been extended
through 18z/1 PM north of Parramore Island. Waves in the bay
generally average ~2 ft, except closer to 3 ft at the mouth of
the bay.

The cold front moves through this evening and winds shift to
the N- NW. However, the cold advection is likely to be a bit
delayed and the resultant increase in winds will also be delayed
until late tonight. Still, expect solid Small Craft Advisory
conditions for most of the marine area and have raised
additional SCAs tonight into Saturday morning (note that SCAs N
of Cape Charles are likely to be raised once the ongoing
headlines this morning expire). Northerly winds are forecast to
peak in the 20-25 kt range with a few gusts approaching 30 kt
possible. Winds are likely to be more marginal on the rivers and
have held off on any headlines here, though the lower James may
need to be added to SCA eventually. Seas increase to 3-5 ft (6
ft 40+ nm offshore) with 2-4 ft waves in the bay. Winds turn to
the NW/WNW Saturday afternoon and decrease to around 15 kt as an
area of high pressure nudges into the area from the west. This
reprieve will be short-lived as a reinforcing push of cooler air
brings another increase in winds overnight Saturday into Sunday
morning. Additional SCAs are probable. W-NW 10-15 kt winds
prevail Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch until 8 PM EST this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-
     102.
VA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EST this evening for VAZ087>089-092-097-
     098-100-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...AJZ/KMC
MARINE...SW