Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

924
FXUS61 KAKQ 072353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
653 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Discussion. Temperatures have been adjusted a bit to
reflect quickly warming temperatures this afternoon into this
evening. Rain chances have been pushed a few hours later late
tonight and into Sunday morning.

SCA have been added across the rivers and the entire bay, and
continue across the northern coastal waters starting tonight

Remaining warm through the middle of the upcoming week. Record
high and record high minimum temps have been added in the
climate section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) After a foggy morning, mild and mainly dry weather has
returned and is expected through this afternoon.

2) Showers are likely Sunday ahead of a cold front. Thunderstorms
are also possible for southern Virginia and northeast North
Carolina Sunday afternoon into early evening. A few storms
could produce gusty winds and hail.

3) Warmth continues into the middle of next week before a stronger
cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday.
Cooler temperatures return to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 140 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...After a foggy morning, mild and mainly dry weather has
returned and is expected through this afternoon.

Latest analysis reveals backdoor frontal boundary has buckled
back north as expected. As of this writing, the thermal boundary
is draped across coastal DE, extending back WNW into W MD and
central PA. Fog and low marine stratus has retreated north with
the front, but is still in place across the northern third of
our local area. These clouds will thin and scatter out over the
next couple of hours, leaving an increasingly mild and breezy
afternoon. Temperatures at this hour vary from the upper 70s to
low 80s across the I-85 corridor south of the Tri-Cities, with
cooler 50s over the Lower Eastern Shore, and even upper 40s at
Ocean City at 18z/1p.

Upstream upper level trough and its associated cold front
approaches the area from the OH Valley later today. Starting to
see a few showers pop up along the pre-frontal trough over
western portions of the Commonwealth up into the Blue Ridge.
There remains a low-end chance that a shower or storm spills
into our Piedmont counties from the higher terrain late this
evening. However, given the timing, which has trended even
later, CAMs are still less than bullish on this activity and
thus will maintain only a 20% in the forecast, mainly for I-95
west and over the MD Eastern Shore. Very mild tonight with lows
in in the 60s (50s Eastern Shore).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers are likely Sunday ahead of a cold
front. Thunderstorms are also possible for southern Virginia
and northeast North Carolina Sunday afternoon into early
evening. A few storms could produce gusty winds and hail.

The cold front slowly crosses the area on Sunday. While most of
the area should see a brief round of scattered showers as the
front crosses the area, Sunday certainly looks far from a
washout. PoPs are highest from just after sunrise through the
early afternoon hours. There remains some degree of uncertainty
later in the day, as additional showers or storms potentially
develop across southern VA and NE NC. This potential is
dependent on frontal timing slowing even further with time, such
that it would allow for a more robust warm sector to collocate
with frontal passage. Should this occur, a few strong to locally
severe storms could develop given around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE
and ~30 kt of bulk shear. Localized damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail would be the favored threats; low- level
shear magnitudes and SRH do not favor tornadoes at this time.
SPC has maintained a Marginal (Level 1 out 5) risk for severe
wx. At this time, while front timing has slowed slightly, CAMs
still look intent on pushing the front through quickly enough
that the severe threat will mainly be to our south. Will still
need to keep a close eye on timing, with loosely organized
convection still possible along and south/southeast of US-58
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Outside of any showers/storms,
another mild day is on tap with highs in the mid-upper 70s W of
the Chesapeake Bay (a few 80s possible SE VA/NE NC) and in the
upper 60s to lower 70s on the Eastern Shore.

The front stalls to our south and slowly washes out. Monday
should be mainly dry day, though there remains a low chance for
isolated to widely scattered showers to re-develop along the
weakening front over NE NC Mon afternoon. High temps rise into
the mid- upper 70s inland. Cooler along the coast with light
flow favoring an afternoon sea breeze.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmth continues into the middle of next week
before a stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday
into Thursday. Cooler temperatures return to end the week.

Well above average temperatures persist into the middle of the
upcoming week, likely peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday with
widespread (inland) high temperatures in the low 80s possible.
Based on the current forecast, record high temperatures are
within reach at RIC and potentially at ORF.

There in increasing confidence in a stronger cold front approaching
later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for
widespread showers (and potentially thunderstorms). There could
be a severe weather potential with the front Wednesday into
Thursday, but the non-diurnal timing of the frontal passage at
this time (overnight Wednesday or early Thursday) currently
looks to keep this threat limited. Temperatures return to closer
to normal or below normal later in the week, though definitely
not atypical for March.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 655 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the first part of the night at
all terminals. SBY and PHF might see some patchy fog development
overnight, though much less widespread than last night. SW LLWS will
be an issue at all terminal at least for a few hours (aside from
ECG), so have included mentioned of it, ending between 05-06z.
Isolated showers are possible by around sunrise Sunday morning
(higher confidence at RIC so included -SHRA), but the more
widespread activity holds off until Sunday late morning and
afternoon across the local area terminals. Guidance showing a low
chance of some MVFR CIGs also creep back across KPHF/KORF/KSBY late
tonight/early Sunday, so decided to include these as confidence has
increased with run to run consistency. There remains some
discrepancy in regards to the exact timing of the afternoon
convection, so have generally included PROB30 to try and capture
roughly the timeframe expected. While there is a chance of some
isolated thunder tomorrow afternoon/early evening, exact timing and
location was uncertain, so have left out mention of TSRA for the
time being until confidence increases.

Outlook: Showers (and potential thunderstorms) are likely
Sunday afternoon, but any flight restrictions should be limited
to any heavier downpours. Mainly VFR Monday through much of
Wednesday. A stronger front approaches later Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- SCA have been added across the rivers and the entire bay, and
  continue across the northern coastal waters starting tonight
  for S-SW winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt and 4-6 foot
  seas.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected from Sunday-Wednesday
  morning.

- Elevated marine conditions look likely late Wednesday into
  Friday morning, as a strong system moves north of the region.

Afternoon weather analysis shows the warm front has lifted back
north of the area. Behind the front, the fog that has been
locked into place has finally been able to erode and all Marine
Dense Fog Advisories have been able to expire. Winds continue to
remain SUB- SCA but have shifted out of the SW around 10 kt.
Seas remain low with waves around 1 ft across the bay and 2 to 3
ft across the ocean. From this evening and through Sunday
morning winds will increase and remain out of the SW as the
pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front tightens.
Winds will be between 15 to 20 kt with gusts approaching 25 kt
across the north and 10 to 15 kt with gusts approaching 20 kt
across the south. Peak winds are expected to occur between 10pm
and 7am. Have maintained SCA for the northern waters N of Cape
Charles (mainly for 4-6 ft seas...though gusts around 25 kt are
also likely). Went ahead and expanded SCA for the entire bay and
rivers as gusts will be around 20 kt across the south and 20 to
25 kt gusts N of New Pt Comfort. Continue to hold off SCA S of
Cape Charles and the sound as gusts are expected to be lower and
seas will be marginal. By late Sunday and through early
Wednesday benign marine conditions are expected. The next chance
for elevated marine conditions (Solid) SCA is later this week
late Wednesday into early Friday as a strong dynamic system
moves north of the region as a strong cold front trails and
moves through the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday...

Record High Temps for 4/8 - 4/11

                 Record     Record     Record     Record
                High/Year  High/Year  High/Year  High/Year
Location          4/8        4/9        4/10       4/11
--------          ----      -----      ------     ------
Richmond        85 (2000)  82 (2009)  81 (2006)  82 (1990)
Norfolk         82 (2000)  82 (2000)  81 (2016)  82 (1990)
Salisbury       82 (2000)  77 (2000)  77 (2016)  76 (2000)
Eliz. City      84 (2000)  82 (2009)  82 (2016)  81 (2016)


Record High Min Temps for 4/8 - 4/11

                 Record     Record     Record     Record
                  High       High       High       High
                Min T/Year Min T/Year  Min T/Year Min T/Year
Location          4/8        4/9        4/10       4/11
--------          ----      -----      ------     ------
Richmond        61 (2009)  61 (1921)  63 (2006)  56 (1955)
Norfolk         63 (1946)  62 (1921)  62 (2016)  82 (1925)
Salisbury       57 (2009)  57 (1998)  60 (1909)  51 (1955)
Eliz. City      63 (1946)  60 (1964)  57 (2016)  58 (1967)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/SW
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...HET
CLIMATE...MAM