Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

757
FXUS61 KAKQ 180916
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
516 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion. Temperatures continue to trend cooler for today,
with minimal fire WX concerns. Also this morning, added
patchy/areas of fog on the Ocean N of Cape Charles and along the
Atlantic coast of the eastern shore. QPF continues to dwindle
for Sunday as models trend drier with the frontal passage.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably warm temperatures continue, but with limited
fire weather concerns expected today, much cooler for the
eastern shore, with fog possible along the coast.

2) Showers are likely Sunday, but areal average rainfall amounts
continue to look minimal. Fire WX concerns return next Monday in the
wake of the cold front, especially if rainfall amounts are
minimal.

3) There is the potential for patchy frost and even localized
freezing temperatures for inland areas Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Then temperatures begin to increase through the middle of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably warm temperatures continue, but
with limited fire weather concerns expected today, much cooler
for the eastern shore, with fog possible along the coast.

Morning weather analysis shows a upper ridge centered over the East
Coast with high pressure off the SE coast. Winds have calmed across
the area and with mostly clear skies radiational cooling has occurred
and temperatures are ranging between the upper 50s to low 60s.
Through the rest of the morning there is the potential of low level
cloud cover/patchy fog across the Eastern Shore as winds shift out
of the SE. Through the day there will be a 30F temperature
difference across the CWA due to persistent onshore flow. Between
the MD coastal Eastern Shore (highs will struggle to get out of the
50s), while inland across VA & NC temperatures will be in the upper
80s to low 90s. While the dry weather does prevail and low RH are
expected especially along and west of the I-95 corridor, winds do
not look impressive. So no fire headlines have been issued during
this update and fire weather concerns remain minimal.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers are likely Sunday, but areal average rainfall amounts
continue to look minimal. Fire WX concerns return next Monday in the
wake of the cold front, especially if rainfall amounts are
minimal.

A low pressure system is progged to track over eastern Canada
Sunday. Model guidance continues to show a strong cold front
associated with this system tracking through the area. Models
continue on the trend of very minimal moisture ahead of the
approaching front. Pops have lowered due to the lack of moisture
and are now between 60-70% across much of the area, with the highest
pops maximized across the tri-cities north (70-80%). The cold front
looks to be mostly ana-frontal in nature (rain falling primarily
behind the frontal passage). With the cold front passing through the
NW 1/2 of the FA early on in the day, temperatures in the late
morning to early afternoon would potentially be in the 50s for much
of the FA. This could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order
of 30 degrees F. In question of how much QPF could the area receive
is still in question. The latest deterministic models continue to
hint on a drier frontal passage with much of the area seeing less
than .1" of rain. While the 18/00z Canadian and Euro ensembles are
holding strong with 50-70% probabilities of  0.1"+ QPF. While the
GFS ensemble looks to be an outlier with 30-40% probs. Nonetheless,
any rainfall is welcomed as the drought conditions worsen.

A much cooler and drier airmass will move into place behind the
passing cold front Sunday night/early Monday. Temps Sun night will
fall into the 40s with perhaps some upper 30s in the piedmont but no
frost is expected. During the day Monday models hint on a second
surge of drier air as the high pressure moves out of the NW. This
will allow for RH values to between 20-25% with perhaps some RH
values in the upper teens. In addition, breezy conditions are
progged  and win gusts could be between 20-25mph. Red Flag warning
may not be reached, however, an IFD for Fire WX continues to look
likely for Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 3...There is the potential for patchy frost and even localized
freezing temperatures for inland areas Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Then temperatures begin to increase through the middle of
the week.

The 18/00Z model guidance continues to remain in decent agreement
with a strong high pressure (>1030mb) moving out of the NW Monday
evening, the eventually moving and settling across the FA by Tuesday
AM. Since the last forecast update, the timing from both the
GEFS/ECMWF have come into better agreement. It looks more likely
that most of the area decouples except for the SE coast. The highest
confidence for patchy frost still remains the far NW where temps
could drop into the low 30s. Confidence elsewhere is low due to the
very high dew points and temperatures remaining in the mid 30s. The
coast will be fine as lows are progged in the low 40s. By Tuesday,
the high pressure will eventually move back off the SE coast and
temperatures will begin to increase (though still remaining below
average, especially on the coast and the eastern shore). By the
middle and through the end of next week temperatures will return
into the 80s with minimal chances of rain expected.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 516 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals through the 18/06Z TAF
period, with the exception being SBY, where fog development is
possible this morning. Recent satellite imagery shows the low
stratus/patchy fog across the MD/DE border/. This is forecasted
to move over SBY causing MVFR flight restrictions through ~14z.
Otherwise, VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail
Saturday night with breezy SW winds. By tonight, a LLJ will
increase across the Eastern Shore causing LLWS to occur over
SBY. In addition, with the increase of SE winds ahead of the
approaching cold front tonight patchy fog/low stratus could
move over the Eastern Shore causing MVFR flight restrictions.
latest model guidance continues to hint on this development.

Outlook: Showers are likely Sunday with the next cold front,
along with breezy SSW winds ahead of the front early, shifting
to the N-NW behind the front. The timing of the wind shift is a
little faster- now expected in the morning for most areas
(lagging until the late morning or early aftn across far
southern VA and NE NC). VFR Sun night-Tuesday with breezy NW
winds Monday, light winds thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through today.

- Solid SCA conditions expected Sunday ahead of and behind a strong
cold front with a brief period of gale force gusts immediately
behind the front.

A weak backdoor cold front is encroaching from the N early this
morning as high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes nudges SSW
along the coast. The wind is light and locally variable. Seas are 1-
2ft nearshore and 2-3ft offshore, with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay.
The weak backdoor cold front slides down the coast this morning
allowing the wind to become E 5-10kt (~10kt off the MD coast). This
boundary lifts back to the N later this aftn and evening with the
wind becoming SE 10-15kt, and then S 10-15kt by the evening. Seas
remain 2-3ft through this evening, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft
waves in the Ches. Bay building to 2-3ft late this aftn into this
evening.

A strong cold front approaches from the NW late tonight and crosses
the coast Sunday morning into early Sunday aftn. A SW wind is
expected to increase to 15-20kt in advance of the front and then
shift to NNW behind the front. 00z/18 NAM/GFS each continue to
depict sharp pressure rises of 5-7mb/3hr in the immediate wake of
the cold front with 950mb wind speeds of 35-40kt. Local wind probs
continue to shows a 50-70% chc of 34kt gusts, primarily for the
Ches. Bay and coastal/offshore waters S of Parramore Is. However,
the duration is short and generally 2hr or less. Therefore, SCAs
have been issued for the frontal passage and any gale force gusts
immediately behind the front can be handles with SMWs. SCAs for the
Ches. Bay begin at 1AM tonight and 4AM early Sunday morning for the
lower James to account for increasing S then SW flow ahead of the
front and then for the NNW surge behind the front. The remainder of
the marine zones (aside from the offshore waters) have SCAs
beginning at 7AM and 10AM for the post-frontal NNW surge. The
pressure gradient slackens quickly later Sunday aftn and evening
with SCAs ending during this time. Seas build to 4-5ft in the
coastal waters and 5-6ft in the offshore waters/southern coastal
waters, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

The wind becomes W 5-15kt Sunday night, and then NW 10-15kt Monday.
A secondary cold front crosses the coast later Monday aftn, with a
subsequent northerly surge following for Monday night. At this time
the Ches. Bay has the best potential for additional SCA flags by
Monday night. High pressure passes across the region Tuesday and
settles offshore by the middle of next week with sub-SCA conditions
expected. 3-4ft seas early next week should subside to 2-3ft by the
middle of the week, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay subsiding to 1-
2ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
While RIC may approach 90F on Saturday, no additional records
are expected with the record being 95. It will be much cooler
closer to the coast, and nowhere near records.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/LKB
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AJZ/RHR
CLIMATE...LKB