Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

058
FXUS61 KAKQ 310604
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
204 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

- Growing confidence in a late summer heat wave building across
  the area Monday through Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle
portion of the week with increasing chances for showers and storms
by late week.

2) Cooler temperatures return over Labor Day weekend
with decreasing precipitation chances during the second half of the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 725 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle
portion of the week with increasing chances for showers and storms
by late week.

Evening weather analysis showed strong upper ridging over the
southern Plains with a weak shortwave passing by to our north,
and sfc high pressure gradually shifting offshore. Additionally,
a large area of cloud cover was noted from SE VA/NE NC and
extending offshore due to an inverted trough offshore. A few
isolated showers were noted across southern portions of NE NC
with additional isolated showers approaching the NW/N portions
of the FA. However, this convection is expected to weaken
quickly with the loss of diurnal instability after sunset.
Otherwise, partly cloudy skies continue through tonight with
lows in the lower 70s for most (mid 70s along the coast and
localized upper 60s possible).

The main story for the next few days will be warming
temperatures and potential Heat Advisories by Wednesday/Thursday.
The above mentioned strong upper level ridge will expand
eastward over the Ohio Valley and into the Mid- Atlantic early
this week. Warm advection and deep mixing will allow for
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s on Monday and
Tuesday (locally upper 90s on Tuesday). Max heat indices on
Monday and Tuesday should generally average 100 to 104 due to
deep mixing keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70.
Subsidence under the the upper ridge will cap most convective
development, but an isolated aftn/evening storm is possible on
the MD Eastern Shore on both Monday and Tuesday. However,
confidence in this is very low.

The ridge peaks in strength Wednesday before flattening later in the
week. Wednesday will see high temperatures likely in the mid to
upper 90s for many inland locations. The NBM continues to show 100F
readings across southwest portions of the area, but this is likely
too warm and is a known bias. Still, Heat Advisories may be needed
for at least southern and southeastern portions of the area on
Wednesday, and potentially even the I-95 Corridor/Richmond Metro.
Heights start to fall a bit on Thursday and especially on Friday as
the ridge gradually breaks down. An upper level trough is progged to
track from the Great Lakes into New England late this week and push
a cold front toward the Mid-Atlantic region. Thursday may be the
hottest day of the period due to heating ahead of the front and a
slight increase in humidity. Highs on Thursday will range from the
mid to upper 90s for most inland locations. Heat Advisories may be
needed for much of the area on Thursday. At this time, model
consensus shows the front crossing the area sometime from late
Friday-Saturday morning as low pressure deepens near Nova Scotia.
Isolated afternoon/evening storms are possible (mainly N of I-64) on
Thursday with storm chances expanding to the entire area on Friday
as the front gets closer to the area.  AI/machine learning tools
continue to hint at a severe weather potential on Thursday and
Friday, but this will ultimately depend on convective coverage.
Given how hot it will be, there will likely be a localized damaging
wind threat with any storms that do form.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures return over Labor Day weekend
with decreasing precipitation chances during the second half of the
weekend.

The upper trough is progged to amplify off the Mid-Atlantic coast
this weekend as high pressure tries to build in from the north. This
will result in onshore flow, cooler temps, and decreasing precip
chances through the weekend. There could still be a fair bit of
cloud cover (especially near the coast) with the onshore flow. Highs
will generally be in the 80s with lower humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for the bulk of the 06z/31 TAF period as
high pressure builds in. However, some patchy fog has already
been observed in the area and is likely to impact at least the
SE terminals during the early morning hours. Highest confidence
in vsby impacts is at ORF and ECG. Otherwise, partly cloudy
skies and light winds expected through the period. Isolated
storms are possible during the afternoon, but confidence in
terminal impacts is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions through Wednesday.
Shower and storm chances begin to increase Thursday
afternoon/evening (and especially Friday) at all terminals ahead
of the next cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- High pressure remains centered offshore through much of the week
leading to sub-Small Craft Advisory southerly flow. A cold front
approaches the waters late in the week.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered offshore, maintaining
benign marine conditions across all waters. Winds are generally out
of the S-SE, averaging 5 to 10 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 3
feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay around 1 foot.

S-SE winds increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon and evening
with locally higher gusts as sea/bay/river breeze circulations
strengthen with peak heating. In addition, nocturnal southerly wind
surges are possible each night through Wednesday, but winds will
remain below SCA thresholds. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet and waves
1 to 2 feet through the period. A cold front will approach the
region Thursday into Friday with strengthening flow ahead of and
(especially) behind the boundary this weekend. Shower and storm
chances will ramp up during the late week period ahead of the
front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/ERI/RMM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB/RHR