Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

915
FXUS61 KAKQ 022050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
350 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes south of the area tonight into Saturday. Widespread
rain is likely for southern Virginia and northeast North
Carolina later Saturday with some wet snow or sleet possibly
mixing in. The low departs offshore Sunday, with dry and
seasonably cool weather Sunday and Monday. A warming trend
starts Tuesday and continues through most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 235 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Mostly cloudy and chilly tonight.

Surface observations continue to highlight a stationary boundary
draped along the I-64 corridor. N of the boundary, winds are light
and out of the NE with temps still in the 30s and 40s. A residual
broken cloud deck also remains in place on the MD Eastern Shore but
visible satellite shows this is gradually eroding. S of the
boundary, temps have warmed into the low-mid 50s under a light WSW
wind. NW flow aloft has also led to terrain-induced cirrus spreading
over most of the area and it`s becoming quite thick over southern VA
and NE NC. Highs today will likely increase another few degrees and
could approach 60 F in NE NC. On the other side of the spectrum,
temps will struggle to get out of the 30s on the MD Eastern Shore.

That sfc boundary drops southward tonight. Meanwhile, a wave of low
pressure develops along this front this evening, riding ENE through
the Deep South and Carolinas by early Saturday morning. Cloud cover
increases ahead of this system late tonight with overcast skies
expected by sunrise Saturday. Most areas should stay dry
tonight, but precip chances will increase later Saturday morning,
especially S. Lows tonight range from the low-mid 20s N to
upper 20s to lower 30s S (mid 30s coastal NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- A disturbance brings a chance for widespread rain Saturday
  afternoon and evening. Some sleet or wet snow could also mix
  in later Saturday N of the NC/VA border, but no accumulation
  is expected at this time.

- Dry weather returns Sunday and Monday with seasonably cool
  temperatures.

Precip will overspread southern VA and NC by the mid-morning
Saturday as a southern stream low pressure system passes S of the
region. While the dominant precip type will be rain, there remains
a low potential for some frozen precip on the northern fringes
of the precip shield. Temps at the sfc and aloft are very
marginal, with increasingly warm air aloft across southern VA
and NE NC. Further N into central VA and the MD Eastern Shore,
some degree of subsidence lends uncertainty to precip even
making it up that way. Forecast soundings generally support
rain or sleet with this potential evident from about the NC/VA
state line northward. If precip can reach further N, a few light
snow showers are possible on the Northern Neck and Eastern
Shore by the evening as temps aloft cool. Ensemble and NBM probs
for accumulating snow are very low and will not have any
mention of this in the forecast due to sfc temps > 32 F through
the entirety of this event. Total QPF looks quite light, with
rainfall amounts generally up to 0.25", perhaps locally higher
near the Albemarle Sound. Becoming cold in the wake of this
system Saturday night with lows in the 20s inland and lower 30s
near the coast.

High pressure builds in from the NW Sunday as a ridge aloft expands
across the central CONUS. By Monday, the sfc high settles overhead.
Highs both days in the 40s, coolest on the Eastern Shore. Sunny
skies prevail Sunday with increased high-level cloud cover Monday.
Cold Sunday night with lows in the low-mid 20s inland and upper 20s
coastal locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Sensible and mainly dry early January weather returns next
  week. A warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through
  most of the week.

The ridge to our west flattens some Tuesday as the flow aloft
becomes quasi-zonal. This favors a moderating trend in the
temperatures and highs Tuesday should surge well into the 50s with
some lower 60s possible across southern/SE VA and NE NC. While a
shortwave passes well N of the area Wednesday, low-level thicknesses
will increase further, supporting highs in the lower-mid 60s. The
warmth (by January`s standards) likely continues to end the week
with additional 60s probable. Could even see some 70s by next
Friday, but things can certainly change a week out. Temps on the
Eastern Shore will generally be a few degrees cooler each day
due to flow off the cooler ocean/bay. Overnight lows will also
trend well above average through the week. Regarding
precipitation, there is very little cogent signal in the
extended model guidance for any appreciable rain beyond this
Saturday. The NBM introduces low-end PoPs by the end of the week
but think the greatest chances remain confined well to our
west.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Friday...

VFR continues to prevail through the 18z TAF period. A BKN/OVC
mid- level stratocumulus deck is holding on near SBY early this
afternoon, but should begin to scour out soon. Elsewhere,
mostly sunny with just some SCT high clouds moving in from the
W. Winds are currently ~5 kt, with a NE direction at SBY and W
elsewhere. A boundary drops southward later this afternoon and
evening, shifting winds at all terminals to the N-NE. Cloud
cover should also thicken as we head into tonight, but CIGs
remain VFR.

Outlook: A chance for rain and periodic flight restrictions
returns later Saturday, especially S. ALso cannot rule out some
wet snow or ice pellets mixing in with the rain at RIC and ORF,
but confidence is on the lower side. Dry wx returns Sunday-
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Saturday as high
  pressure builds over the local waters.

- Low pressure moves off the Carolina coast late Saturday into
  early Sunday with low-end SCA conditions possible, primarily
  for the southern coastal waters and Currituck sound.

A weak sfc boundary has been bisecting the marine area for most
of the day, but is now dropping back south as a backdoor cold
front. As a result, NNE winds prevail for all but the NC zones
(where winds are still from the W). Seas are ~2ft and waves in
the Bay have been ~1ft. As the boundary continues to drop S, all
zones can expect a NNE wind surge this evening and overnight.
Pressure rises behind this front are modest, on the order of 3-4
mb/6 hr and local wind probs are very low for 18 kt sustained
winds, so will not be issuing any SCAs for the overnight period.
Expect to see seas to build to 3-4 ft by Sat morning with waves
in the Bay building to ~2 ft (2-3 ft in the lower Bay).

A southern stream low slides across the Southeast coastal plain
on Saturday and deepens as it moves offshore Saturday night
into early Sunday. The wind Saturday is expected to be NE
10-15kt from the lower Ches. Bay/lower James S through the
southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound, and then increases
to ~15kt Saturday night for the lower Bay/lower James/Currituck
Sound and 15-20kt for the southern coastal waters. Farther N, a
5-10kt N/NE wind Saturday should become NE 10- 15kt by Saturday
night. The wind becomes NNW 10-15kt Sunday for the Ches. Bay and
15-20kt for the coastal waters as the low pulls farther
offshore and as high pressure builds in from the NW. The best
chc for SCA conditions at this time and primarily for 4-6ft seas
is across the southern coastal waters later Saturday night (3rd
period) into Sunday. SCAs are also possible for the Currituck
sound. High pressure is expected to build across the coast
Sunday night into Monday. The high then settles off the coast
Monday night through the middle of next week with generally sub-
SCA SW flow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ/LKB