Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

145
FXUS61 KAKQ 091925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
325 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion. Introduced chance for thunder Wednesday
afternoon and evening generally along and W of I-95.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer this afternoon, with mild to warm conditions
continuing through midweek. Temperatures near or exceeding
records Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) A stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing the next chance for precipitation, along with a
low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first part of
Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather returns to end the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer this afternoon, with mild to warm
conditions continuing through midweek. Temperatures near or
exceeding records Tuesday and Wednesday.

Latest analysis reveals a weakening frontal boundary just north
of the local area. Morning fog and stratus have mixed out
nicely this afternoon, leaving a mostly sunny afternoon N, with
afternoon CU over the southern third of the area and clearing
afternoon stratus over the Eastern Shore. Highs over the 60s (VA
Eastern Shore) with low along the coast, with warmer mid to
upper 70s inland. Still a very low chance (< 20%) for a quick
isolated shower or two along a weak coastal trough just inland
of the SE VA and NE NC coast, but otherwise mainly clear and dry
tonight. Some additional low stratus likely to re- develop
along the coast tonight, with some patchy fog toward morning
along the I-95 corridor. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s,
except cooler mid 40s along the immediate coast.

The warming trend continues through midweek, as surface high
pressure lingers over the western Atlantic, as upper level
riding builds over the Gulf coast. Rising thicknesses portend
temps warming 2 to 3 categories above normal over the next
couple of days, peaking on Wednesday across the local area.
Expected highs well into the 70s to mid 80s inland. As is
typical in the Spring, the cooler waters surrounding the Eastern
Shore will likely keep coastal localities a few degrees cooler
and in the 70s. Record high temps could be in reach for all of
our climate sites both Tuesday and Wednesday. See the climate
section below for more information. Overnight lows will also be
similarly mild. Mainly dry both days, though an approaching cold
front could lead to a few showers W of I-95 by Wednesday
afternoon and evening and low PoPs remain in place north of I-64
and over the MD Eastern Shore. In fact, those warm temps, dew
points in the 60s, and increasingly favorable shear from the
system to our W could support an isolated strong to severe
storm. Overall coverage currently appears low over our local
area, and centered mainly to our NNW given the rather
flat/quasi-zonal flow aloft. However, this setup certainly bears
watching over the next day or so.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front crosses the area
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the next chance for
precipitation, along with a low-end potential for some stronger
storms during the first part of Thursday. Cooler temperatures
and dry weather returns to end the week.

A dampening upper low currently over Baja California is still
expected to lift across the Gulf coast Wednesday through
Thursday, as a rather potent, dynamic upper trough lifts across
the upper midwest into the interior northeast. While guidance
remains split with the degree of phasing between these two
features, the strong cold front attendant to the northern stream
system still appears likely to cross the forecast area on
Thursday morning. Model guidance continues to show strong
dynamics aloft ahead of and along the front, with plentiful
ascent downstream of the parent shortwave. Widespread showers
are thus likely late Wednesday night through early Thursday
afternoon, shifting eastward through the day. Ensembles continue
to support areal rainfall totals on the order of a half inch or
so, but any convective enhancement would almost certainly lead
to locally higher totals.

With respect to the severe threat, there remains notable
differences among the global models regarding the degree of
destabilization just ahead of the front. Given the more
amplified solution of the past few model suites a slower frontal
progression appears more likely. This would make for an
increased potential for (at least) modest pre-frontal instability
along the SE VA/NE NC coast. Add in the impressive/dynamic
kinematic fields and the potential for a narrow convective line
of low-topped gusty showers and isolated strong-severe storms
appears quite reasonable. Regardless, most of the precip is
likely to be anafrontal, i.e, chasing the sfc front, so any
window for the severe potential would tend to be short-lived.
The primary threat, should this materialize, would be damaging
winds given straight hodographs and meager lapse rates aloft
(i.e., low tornado and hail threats, respectively).

Sharp pressure rises then overspread the region post- FROPA
Thursday afternoon and evening with temps likely to quickly fall
in the afternoon and evening as strong CAA ensues. Thus, the
high temperatures shown in the forecast are likely to be
achieved early in the day, with those falling temps as the day
proceeds. NBM/WPC PoPs and thermals do raise the nominal
potential for some RA/SN showers before precipitation tapers off
Thu night. This on its face does seem unlikely, as the airmass
will be quickly cooling and drying with time. Will maintain the
NBM 20% PoP Thu night for now.

Looking ahead, dry and seasonably cooler wx returns Friday, with
cooler highs dropping back toward seasonal norms into the upper
50s to low 50s despite plentiful sunshine. Milder conditions
with temps approaching 70 F are forecasted by the weekend as
transient high pressure slides over, also supporting continued
mainly dry wx.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Morning stratus and fog finally began to break across area
terminals late this morning, with VFR conditions at all area
terminals to begin the 18z TAF period. VFR continues through
late evening with SCT CU at ECG. SW winds ~10-15 kt this
afternoon and early evening, before becoming light and variable
again tonight. Chances for a stray shower or two are lower, but
still possible at ECG late this afternoon. Still much too low to
include in the TAF. Flight restrictions should be less
widespread tonight, but marine stratus looks to re-develop along
the coast, with some patchy fog possible inland and low stratus
at the immediate coast. Have allowed for IFR CIGs late tonight
at ECG, with IFR/MVFR CIGs also possible at PHF/SBY

Outlook: Prevailing VFR Tuesday through much of Wednesday,
outside of intermittent early morning ground fog concerns. A
stronger front approaches later Wednesday into Thursday which
could bring additional showers and isolated storms, along with
some flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail through Wednesday afternoon.
  Additional Fog development is possible late tonight through
  tomorrow morning.

- Solid SCAs look very likely from late Wednesday into Friday
  morning, as a dynamic system moves north of the region, and
  drags a cold front through the area on Thursday.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a decaying frontal boundary just
north of the coastal waters with light SW winds between 5 to 10 kt
and seas around 1 ft in the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. The
pesky dense marine fog has finally burned off across much of the
area and all that remains is some  patchy marine fog across the
middle and upper bay and Cape Charles north. Through tonight, recent
model guidance shows additional fog development across the waters
causing visibilities to potentially be reduced to less than 1 NM.
Additional Marine Dense Fog Advisories maybe needed if fog develops.
Otherwise, benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through
the early half of this week into midday Wednesday with SW winds
between 5 to 10 kt and seas around 1 ft across the bay and 2-3 ft
across the coastal waters.

A strong dynamic low pressure system is progged  to track across the
upper Midwest into NE Canada Wednesday through Thursday AM, which
will drag a stronger second cold front through the local waters
Thursday Morning/afternoon. SCA conditions are likely, with the
strong southerly wind ahead of the approaching frontal boundary
Wednesday afternoon, with winds than shifting out of the NNW as the
cold front passes. The southerly winds are progged to be 15-25 kt
with gusts nearing 30 kt. However, a brief period of Gale force
gusts cannot be ruled out given the rapid pressure rises immediately
following the front. SCA conditions continue to prevail though
Friday AM. Winds through this time frame are progged to be 20-25 kt
with gusts to 30 kt out of the NW but will gradually diminish
through time. The forecast will continue to be refined in the coming
days, and marine interests should continue to pay close attention to
this time frame.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

*SBY broke the high min record for 3/8, with ORF and ECG tying
  their respective record high min temps.


Record High Temps for 3/8 - 3/11

                 Record     Record     Record     Record
                High/Year  High/Year  High/Year  High/Year
Location          3/8        3/9        3/10       3/11
--------          ----      -----      ------     ------
Richmond        85 (2000)  82 (2009)  81 (2006)  82 (1990)
Norfolk         82 (2000)  82 (2000)  81 (2016)  82 (1990)
Salisbury       82 (2000)  77 (2000)  77 (2016)  76 (2000)
Eliz. City      84 (2000)  82 (2009)  82 (2016)  81 (2016)

Record High Min Temps for 3/8 - 3/11

                 Record     Record     Record     Record
                  High       High       High       High
                Min T/Year Min T/Year  Min T/Year Min T/Year
Location          3/8        3/9        3/10       3/11
--------          ----      -----      ------     ------
Richmond        61 (2009)  61 (1921)  63 (2006)  56 (1955)
Norfolk        *63 (1946)  62 (1921)  62 (2016)  82 (1925)
Salisbury      *57 (2009)  57 (1998)  60 (1909)  51 (1955)
Eliz. City     *63 (1946)  60 (1964)  57 (2016)  58 (1967)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/SW
AVIATION...MAM/SW
MARINE...ERI/HET
CLIMATE...ERI/MAM