Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

426
FXUS61 KAKQ 031903
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
303 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances have increased for Tuesday mainly south of I-64.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An unsettled pattern prevails through midweek. Near average
temperatures, humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and
storms are expected.

2) A more typical summertime pattern returns for the latter half of
the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
remain possible, with near to slightly above normal temperatures
prevailing through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled pattern prevails through midweek. Near
average temperatures, humid conditions, and daily chances of showers
and storms are expected.

Latest surface analysis depicted a cold front beginning to push into
NW VA early this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are
beginning to develop along this front and are expected to gradually
move SE into this evening with the slow FROPA. Models are in decent
agreement with this line of showers and storms persisting through at
least this evening and perhaps continuing into late tonight. HREF
even maintains a 10% chance for 3"/3hr of rainfall across central VA
through 11 PM. Will note that this area is in a locally lower PW
(precipitable water) environment of 1.6-1.8" (as opposed to
2.2-2.3" across extreme SE VA/NE NC) given some dry air
entrainment with the cold front. This should limit the flash
flooding risk today/tonight. However, with slow storm motions,
the potential for risking PWs after sunset, and the potential
for convection to linger around the Richmond Metro this evening
(where flash flood guidance is only 1- 2"/1 hr and ~2"/3 hr,
locally heavy rain and localized flash flooding remains
possible. An additional area of scattered storms has developed
across extreme SE VA/NE NC in association with an upper level
trough centered across the Southeast. This convection is
expected to move NE through the afternoon before tapering off
this evening. Given the aforementioned locally higher PW
environment in this region, locally heavy rainfall is possible.
However, flash flood guidance is higher in this region (2.5-3"/1
hr) which leads to low confidence in reaching flash flooding
criteria.

The cold front stalls near the VA/NC tonight/Tuesday morning
before slowly lifting back north through the day Tuesday.
Meanwhile, an upper level low becomes a cutoff low Tuesday
across the southern Appalachians. This should help a weak
surface low to form across the Carolinas Tuesday before lifting
north into central VA tonight. Given the W/E oriented front,
surface winds should remain backed (predominantly E) through the
day on Tuesday with dew points remaining in the mid (locally
upper) 70s. This should allow for enough instability (MLCAPE
~1500 J/kg) for scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon across
southern/south- central VA and interior NE NC. PWs rise to
2.2-2.5 across the area. These high PWs combined with
tall/skinny CAPE, slow storm motion, and a nearly stationary
front will likely lead to widespread showers and storms Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening. The aforementioned environment
is favorable for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding. HREF probs for 3"/3hr increase to 30% generally south
of I-64 during the afternoon. While normally this would be a
borderline flood watch environment, the region of heaviest
rainfall appears to be mainly south of Richmond and west of the
Hampton Roads region in an area of locally higher flash flood
guidance (2.5-3"/1 hr and 3"+/3 hr). As such, the flash flooding
risk is more likely to be isolated in nature (as opposed to
scattered). Convection tapers off from south to north Tue night.

Confidence is lower for widespread convection Wednesday
afternoon. If widespread convection does occur on Tuesday, the
environment may be too overturned to allow for much more than
isolated to locally scattered showers and storms on Wednesday.
However, given that Wednesday is still several days away and
given that most CAMs do not go out that far, have kept NBM PoPs
for Wed (for now). That being said, NBM PoPs appear high
compared to what the general model consensus has been. If models
continue to not show much in the way of convection for Wednesday,
will likely need to lower PoPs.

Given the moist environment (and lack of DCAPE), relatively weak
flow aloft, and tall/skinny CAPE, the main threat over the next few
days will be locally heavy rain and flash flooding. As such, there
is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across most of the area
today through Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) is not currently anticipating severe weather.
Nevertheless, a few wet downbursts with mainly sub-severe storms
are possible. Otherwise, high temperatures dip down slightly
below average Tuesday with near average temperatures expected
on Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A more typical summertime pattern returns for the
latter half of the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms remain possible, with near to slightly above normal
temperatures prevailing through the weekend.

Though not as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter
half of the week will see isolated to scattered diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. However, coverage in storms is expected
to be much lower on Thu and Friday with most areas remaining
dry. Nevertheless, WPC has a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall across NE NC on Thursday and across most of the area of
Friday. With the decreased convective coverage forecast,
temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points will remain in
the mid (locally upper) 70s. This will allow for humid
conditions to continue. Heat indices around 100 degrees are
expected for most of the area Thursday through Sunday. However,
given temperatures remaining near normal, heat headlines are not
expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

CIGs were mainly MVFR/VFR this afternoon with an improvement to
predominantly VFR CIGs expected later this afternoon into this
evening. Scattered storms were noted across extreme SE VA/NE NC
early this afternoon. This convection should move NE through the
afternoon before dissipating this evening. Given greater
instability across NE NC and the presence of lightning with
current convection, have added thunderstorms to the ECG TAF for
the next few hours. Confidence in thunder diminishes farther
north. As such, have kept showers mentioned in the TAFs for the
other terminals. A cold front approaches from the NW this
afternoon, slowly moving into the local area later this
afternoon into tonight before stalling near the VA/NC border.
Scattered showers and storms have already begun to develop along
the front and are expected to continue to slowly push SE into
tonight. As such, shower chances linger through late tonight
inland. However, confidence in thunder at RIC was too low to add
to the TAF at this time. Additional scattered to widespread
showers (with embedded storms) are likely Tue afternoon mainly
along and south of I-64. Otherwise, CIGs drop to mainly MVFR
after midnight tonight, lingering through the day on Tue.
Additionally, some model guidance suggests that IFR CIGs are
possible at ORF/PHF from around 10-14z Tue. As such, have added
IFR CIGs to the TAFs for those two terminals.

Outlook: Elevated shower/storm chances continue through mid-
week, with periodic flight restrictions lingering, mainly from
early morning stratus, and brief visibility restrictions in
heavy rain. A more typical Summer pattern returns for the
latter half of the week, with a somewhat lower coverage of late
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered showers and storms
Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect coastal waters into
  this evening.

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail from late
  tonight through late week, outside of local thunderstorm
  influences.

Latest analysis reveals 1024+ mb high pressure anchored well
offshore. To the west, low pressure was analyzed over southern
Quebec as of this writing, with a weak surface cold front in place
from the Eastern Great Lakes, well west of the local waters and
extending into the western Carolinas and Deep South. Ahead of the
front, S-SW winds of 10-15 kt this afternoon will diminish further
tonight as the pressure gradient slackens with the weakening front
lingering to the west. Winds veer around to the NNE ~10 kt over
northern and central waters, as the front slowly slides into the
area, remaining SSE for the lower Bay and southernmost coastal
waters. Waves 1-2 ft/Seas 5-7 ft slowly subside from S to N late
this afternoon into the evening, diminishing to 1 ft/2-4 ft by late
tonight and Tuesday. SCAs have been extended into late tonight north
of Parramore Island, and continue into this evening from Parramore
Island south to Currituck Light.

Widespread organized convection is not expected, though additional
isolated to widely scattered showers are possible this evening, with
more widespread storms tomorrow, as the front drifts closer to the
local area. Locally degraded marine conditions are likely to
accompany the stronger storms through the week, mainly in the form
of VSBY restrictions in heavy rain and frequent lightning, but some
marginally severe gusty winds will also be possible.

The front washes out through midweek, with weak high pressure
rebuilding over the area, then sliding offshore for late week. A
more typical summer setup resumes, with Sub-SCA S-SW winds ~10-15 kt
developing, turning S-SE nearshore with seabreeze circulations each
afternoon. Daily afternoon and evening shower and storm chances
persist into the weekend, though chances gradually diminish beyond
Wednesday.

Rip Currents: There is a Moderate Rip risk for the northern beaches
tomorrow with a Low Rip Risk for southern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RMM/NB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM