Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

910
FXUS61 KAKQ 311054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
654 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Slight chance for evening storms added for this evening and
  tomorrow evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot conditions prevail during the early to
middle portion of the week. Isolated storms possible, but mostly
dry.

2) Shower/storm chances increase late week as a
cold front approaches. Cooler, but seasonable, temps forecast behind
the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot conditions prevail during the early to
middle portion of the week. Isolated storms possible, but mostly
dry.

A late-summer heat wave is imminent as a strong upper level ridge
building over the Mississippi River valley translates toward the east
coast. Temperatures rise through the week, starting with highs in
the low 90s today and peaking near 100 on Wed/Thurs. Still hesitant
to put widespread 100F+ in the forecast as the NBM suggests, but
confidence is growing in this solution given the statistical models
starting to pick up on it as well. If realized, it would definitely
break a few max temp records for early September. Unfortunately, it
will also feel humid and stagnant on top of the already hot
conditions with strong sfc high pressure leading to little to no
wind and dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s. Heat indices in
the upper 90s and low 100s are expected today and Tues, then 100-105
on Wed/Thurs. Heat Advisories are likely for at least part of the
area these days; highest confidence in this is E of I-95.
Overnight lows will not provide much relief, especially Wed
night when lows will be in the upper 70s.

It will be mostly dry through mid-week, but a few isolated
showers/storms will be possible today and late tomorrow as
shortwaves travel down the ridge. Given the NW flow aloft and
no short supply of instability, stronger storms are possible,
but confidence is pretty low at the moment. SPC has N/NE
portions of the area in a Marginal Risk for Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower/storm chances increase late week as a
cold front approaches. Cooler, but seasonable, temps forecast behind
the front.

The strong ridge aloft starts to break down/flatten late in the week
and a sfc cold front approaches from the north, passing through the
area sometime Fri-Fri night as of latest modeling. Afternoon and
evening thunderstorms are forecast Thurs and Fri ahead of and along
the front. Based on the 00z global models, Fri looks like the
highest coverage day. NW flow will still be set up aloft, so
the potential for severe storms certainly exists. As with most
set ups around here, it will come down to timing and whether
there is enough instability around when convection gets going.
The local FA is not currently outlooked in SPC`s extended
forecast product. We should see a little bit of relief from the
heat over the weekend, but still seasonably warm with highs in
the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for the bulk of the 12z/31 TAF period as
high pressure builds in. However, some patchy fog may linger at
ECG for the first hour of the period. Otherwise, partly cloudy
skies and light winds expected through the period. Isolated
storms are possible during the afternoon, but confidence in
terminal impacts is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions through Wednesday.
Shower and storm chances begin to increase Thursday
afternoon/evening (and especially Friday) at all terminals ahead
of the next cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- High pressure remains centered offshore through much of the week
leading to sub-Small Craft Advisory southerly flow. A cold front
approaches the waters late in the week.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered offshore, maintaining
benign marine conditions across all waters. Winds are generally out
of the S-SE, averaging 5 to 10 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 3
feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay around 1 foot.

S-SE winds increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon and evening
with locally higher gusts as sea/bay/river breeze circulations
strengthen with peak heating. In addition, nocturnal southerly wind
surges are possible each night through Wednesday, but winds will
remain below SCA thresholds. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet and waves
1 to 2 feet through the period. A cold front will approach the
region Thursday into Friday with strengthening flow ahead of and
(especially) behind the boundary this weekend. Shower and storm
chances will ramp up during the late week period ahead of the
front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB/RHR