Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

778
FXUS61 KAKQ 290948
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
548 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs

- Refined shower and thunderstorm chances for this afternoon,
  with the highest chances focused across far
  southern/southeastern VA into interior NE NC.

- High confidence in a strong late summer heat wave building
  into the area starting early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across southern
portions of the area this afternoon.

2) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across
southern portions of the area this afternoon.

Early this morning, a stationary boundary is located over far
southeastern Virginia into northeast North Carolina. Slightly drier
air has started to filter into far northern portions of the forecast
area with wind turning to the N/NE. Near and south of the boundary,
continued muggy conditions with a few lingering showers closer to
the Albemarle Sound and across eastern Currituck County. Patchy
ground fog will be possible for any areas that received rain on
Friday.

For this afternoon, high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will
continue to nudge southward into the area, holding the weak boundary
near the VA/NC border. Surface heating south of US-460 will
destabilize the airmass (MLCAPE ~1500 J/kg), allowing for another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. The highest coverage for any storms today will generally
be south of the VA/NC border across interior northeast North
Carolina. Pulse-type storms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall and potentially a stronger wind gust. Areas north of
US-460 will see mainly dry conditions with partly sunny skies. High
temperatures today top out in the mid to upper 80s (cooler along the
immediate coast due to an onshore wind). Any convection tapers off
rapidly after sunset as diurnal heating is lost.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle
portion of next week.

High pressure centers offshore on Sunday, forcing the remnants of the
boundary south of the local area. Outside of an isolated shower or
storm, mostly dry weather and partly sunny skies are expected across
the area. Highs on Sunday warm into the upper 80s to around 90.

A strong 500mb upper level ridge expands eastward over the Ohio
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic early next week. Warm advection and
deep mixing will allow for temperatures to rise into the low to mid
90s on Monday. The ridge peaks in strength Tuesday into Wednesday
before flattening later in the weak. Tuesday through Thursday will
see high temperatures likely in the mid to even upper 90s for many
inland locations. Max heat indices through the period should
generally average 100-104 due to deep mixing keeping dewpoints in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. However, if dewpoints overperform, a
Heat Advisory may be needed across portions of southeast Virginia
and northeast North Carolina.

Convective chances remained capped near climatological minimums (15-
20% or less) through Wednesday due to strong mid level capping. A
broad upper trough and associated cold front approach from the Great
Lakes Thursday into Friday, bringing the next meaningful opportunity
for showers and thunderstorms along with more seasonable
temperatures. AI models hint at the possibility for severe weather
on Thursday as the front approaches the area, this will be something
to watch as we head into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 545 AM EDT Saturday...

Patchy ground fog with MVFR VSBYs has developed at RIC and
PHF, this should dissipate by 13z at the latest. There will be
a mix of clouds and sun today as a boundary remains situated
over far SE portions of the area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop after 18z, with the highest chances at
ECG. A PROB30 group has been added to account for the afternoon
thunderstorm potential at ECG. Any showers/storms dissipate by
or shortly after 00z. Stratus and/or patchy fog is possible
again tonight, with the best chances at RIC and PHF.

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions Sunday through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions continue through the weekend
  and into next week.

A weak cold front was positioned across the southern waters as of
early morning sfc analysis. Latest obs show light winds that vary in
direction with some sites already turned to the NE. Seas are around
2 ft nearshore and 3 to 4 ft near the edge of the 20-60nm zones.
Expecting a slight increase in NE winds during the early morning
hours as high pressure tries to fill in behind the slow moving
front. This should still be Sub-SCA with sustained winds around 15kt
and gusts up to 20kt. The strongest of these will be over the
northern coastal waters. This will lead to seas in these waters
building to 3ft. Winds diminish a slowly turn to the E this evening
and overnight as the high to the north slides offshore. The front
lifts back north on Sunday, leading to a wind shift to the south
Sunday evening. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through
the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC