Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

197
FXUS61 KAKQ 062326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
726 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been extended through this evening
in the Bay, Rivers, and northern coastal waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front brings beneficial rain and thunderstorm chances
to the region this evening into Thursday.

2) Another cold front likely crosses the area later Sunday into
Monday, bringing additional chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 725 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings beneficial rain and
thunderstorm chances to the region this evening into Thursday.

A cold front draped across the Appalachians continues to slowly
approach the area. A lull in the rain across the local area
continues into this evening, with rainfall totals over the past
12 hours at or below 0.10". High pressure has shifted further
offshore as the low associated with the front moves across the
Northeast. The gradient between these two features remains
tightened and winds are still gusting to 20-25 mph. Temps as of
725 PM ranged from the lower 70s NW to the upper 70s SE.

Beneficial rainfall continue to look likely tonight through the
first half of Thursday as the cold front slowly moves across
the forecast area. Total QPF will likely range from ~0.50" north
to ~1.00" south. Various CAMs show the potential for pockets of
1.00" (potentially up to 2.00") of QPF across the southern half
of the area where we may see more convective elements due to
the better daytime heating that is being realized in this area.
A few thunderstorms are possible, though instability will be
limited due to the timing of FROPA, thus not anticipating any
severe weather. The highest rain chances on Thursday will be
during the morning hours, before PoPs begin to diminish from NW
to SE during the afternoon hours. Much cooler temperatures are
expected on Thursday with temperatures likely struggling to get
out of the 50s or lower 60s for much of the forecast area due to
widespread clouds/rain. Some clearing/sunshine is possible late
in the day, especially across the NW. Temperatures remain
slightly below average on Friday (upper 60s to lower 70s), but
moderate to near average by Saturday (mid to upper 70s), and
above average to close out the weekend on Sunday (80s).

KEY MESSAGE 2....Another cold front likely crosses the area later
Sunday into Monday, bringing additional chances for rain.

While there is a slight chance for additional rain on Saturday as a
cold front nears the area, another stronger cold front is forecast
to cross the area late Sunday night or Monday morning, bringing the
potential for additional beneficial rainfall. Rain showers may begin
as early as Sunday afternoon and continue through much of the day
Monday. Both the 00z GEFS and EPS average around 0.50" of QPF with
this system at this time. High pressure and near normal temperatures
will return for Tuesday, with temperatures moderating back into the
upper 70s by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Wednesday...

A lull in the rain is expected to continue into this evening,
allowing for VFR conditions to persist over the next several
hours. A cold front will slowly move south across the region
tonight into Thu, allowing for increasing rain chances as well
as a chance for a few embedded thunderstorms. However,
confidence in thunder was too low to reflect in the TAFs. Expect
rain to reach RIC/SBY between 4-5z, becoming widespread after
6z. CIGs are expected to drop to MVFR with the rain with IFR
CIGs possible at RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG late tonight into Thu morning
(beginning around 6-8z at RIC, 9-11z at PHF, and 10-12z at ORF).
CIGs improve to MVFR from north to south Thu morning into Thu
afternoon with IFR CIGs potentially lingering across ORF/ECG
through 18-20z Thu. CIGs improve to VFR at RIC/SBY by around
18z, PHF by around 21z, and ORF/ECG by around 23-00z. Rain
decreases in intensity by Thu afternoon with light showers
ending by late Thu afternoon into Thu evening. VIS is expected
to remain generally MVFR in showers, however, a brief reduction
in VIS to IFR is possible in heavier showers late tonight into
Thu morning.

Winds remain elevated this evening, particularly at ORF where SW
winds may continue to gust to around 20 kt ahead of the cold
front. Winds will become N immediately following the frontal
passage, becoming NNE Thu morning. Additionally, gusts up to
around 20 kt are possible behind the front. Winds gradually
diminish from north to south Thu as high pressure builds in.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Thu night into Fri. A quick
moving system will bring a potential for a few showers Sat,
mainly along the coast, with an area of low pressure approaching
the region Sun into Mon, bringing the potential for additional
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue for the northern coastal
  waters through this evening for elevated seas. The SCA for
  the Lower James River and Chesapeake Bay have been extended
  until 7PM.

- SCAs are likely again Thursday morning in the Chesapeake Bay
  from a northerly surge behind a cold front. This surge will
  likely have a shorter duration. Then, generally sub-SCA
  conditions through the weekend.

The latest analysis shows a widespread cold front across the
Northeast CONUS to Ohio Valley to Deep South, approaching the
Commonwealth. Ahead of the front, a tightened pressure gradient is
over the area from high pressure offshore as well as an overhead
LLJ. These factors have allowed SW winds to remain elevated over the
local waters today. Winds are currently SW 15-20 kt with gusts to 25
kt and a few gusts to 30 kt over the coastal waters. Waves and seas
are 1-2 ft and 2-5 ft (highest in the northern waters),
respectively. The Small Craft Advisories have been extended in time
for the Chesapeake Bay and Lower James River, as elevated winds
continue, now ending at 7PM. Upper James, York, and Rappahannock
rivers will expire at 4PM, as gusts have fallen below 20 kt. The
coastal waters north of Parramore Island remain through 10PM for
elevated seas.

The cold front will cross the local area early morning Thursday.
Winds are expected to diminish during the frontal passage, then
increase again on Thursday after the wind shift. The latest models
have increased in northerly surge behind the front from previous
runs. This will likely need a brief SCA for at least the Ches. Bay
Thursday morning with gusts to 20-25 kt. By the evening, winds will
diminish to ~10 kt. Largely sub-SCA conditions expected for the end
of the week and the weekend with high pressure overhead. Will likely
see a brief increase in winds Fri morning as dry air returns, but
gusts should mostly stay under 20kt. Breezy south winds return Sat
as WAA ensues.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/RMM/NB
AVIATION...RMM/NB
MARINE...AC