Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

892
FXUS61 KAKQ 131940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
340 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change to the forecast through the weekend and into next
week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry with seasonable temperatures today and Saturday. Breezy
conditions develop this afternoon. A few showers are possible
Sunday afternoon, but otherwise remaining mild along the coast,
warmer inland.

2) A strong cold front approaches early Monday, crossing the
region late Monday through Monday night. Strong to severe
storms are possible ahead of and along the front, with below
normal temperatures to follow Tue-Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with seasonable temperatures this weekend today
and Saturday. Breezy conditions develop this afternoon. A few
showers are possible Sunday afternoon, but otherwise remaining
mild along the coast, warmer inland.

High pressure has moved well offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast
this aftn, but is still ridging back into the Carolina coast. A
strong sfc low (989 mb) is situated across northern lower Michigan,
and the pressure gradient in between these features, along with
dry air and deep mixing, has led a a breezy to windy aftn for
the local area. It is mostly sunny, with just some high clouds
and temperatures generally in the 50s (upper 40s eastern
shore). A weakening cold front drops SE tonight, and pushes into
the area early Saturday. Mostly clear tonight with enough mixing
to keep temperatures milder; lows will mostly be 40-45F. Slightly
warmer on Saturday with less wind and highs mainly in the 60s
(upper 50s eastern shore). Low pressure deepens considerably
over the central CONUS on Sunday with increasing temps and
humidity across the local area. A few showers are possible for
far southern portions of the area late Sunday afternoon but
PoPs do not increase substantially until Sunday evening into the
overnight hours.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front approaches early Monday,
crossing the region late Monday through Monday night. Strong to
severe storms are possible ahead of and along the front, with
below normal temperatures to follow Tue-Wed.

12z models remain in decent agreement depicting a strong mid/upper
level trough taking on a negative tilt, almost becoming cutoff
across the western Great Lakes by Monday aftn/evening. At the
sfc, intense low pressure is forecast to lift NE from the mid MS
Valley to the western Great Lakes late Sun night/early Mon.
Models show this low deepening to 980mb or lower and then
occluding as the surface and upper level features stack
vertically. Latest GFS/ECMWF/GEM is in very good agreement
considering the time range, and continues to show a deepening
sfc trough along the Appalachians on Monday which would likely
keep the sfc/boundary layer winds due S or perhaps even backing
to the SSE ahead of the cold front. Strong deep layer shear will
be in place due to impressive wind fields aloft and would be
augmented further by any degree of low level backing from the
developing surface trough. Instability is still more uncertain
with most models showing widespread clouds and showers ahead of
the front, which could limit surface heating. However, strong
southerly flow will advect increasing low level moisture into
the region ahead of the front with dew points expected to be
well into the 60s. Strong kinematics aloft and forcing along the
cold front will promote a mainly linear convective mode across
the region with strong straight line winds likely the primary
threat. Given the degree of deep layer shear and potential for
increasing low level shear, supercells well out ahead of the
cold front will be possible during the day Monday, with a QLCS
developing right ahead of and with the frontal passage Monday
evening. Tornadoes are a possibility in both of these regimes.
SPC Day 4 Outlook has 30% highlighted for most of the CWA, with
15% for the eastern shore (where some degree of onshore flow
would tend to limit instability a bit more). Have highlighted
the HWO for the website in the 30% region for now.


The airmass behind this system will be much cooler (actually
trending to well below normal Tue-Wed) as well as significantly
drier. Highs mainly in the 40s Tue- Wed. Most of the area can
expect a hard freeze Tue night/Wed AM as strong >1030mb sfc
high builds overhead, with diminishing winds and lows ranging
through the 20s. Even the coast will likely see at least a
light freeze with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, the
possible exception being the NC OBX. Gradually trending warmer
by late in the week, and remaing dry.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

VFR across the region this aftn, with high clouds and S winds
gusting to 20-30 kt, highest N and inland. Winds will gradually
drop off this evening, but will still be elevated at ~15 kt with
highest gusts this evening. SW to WSW LLWS is highlighted at
all terminals tonight, primarily from 00-06Z well inland, and a
few hrs later closer to the coast as a strong LLJ of 40-50kt
moves through. Winds shift to the WNW Sat, and will be a bit
breezy at SBY, generally 10 kt or less elsewhere.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist into Sunday. Shower chances
increase late Sunday/Sunday night, with flight restrictions
possible into early Monday. A strong cold front will bring the
potential for additional flight restrictions and potentially
strong to severe TSRA Monday. Even outside of any storms,
strong, gusty southerly winds prevail into Mon evening. Dry/VFR
Tue with breezy WNW winds, remaining dry Wed with less wind.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

 - Small Craft Advisories are in effect north of the VA/NC border
this afternoon into tonight in advance of a weakening cold front.

- A strong cold front approaches from the west Monday and crosses
the coast Monday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely
with gale conditions possible. Additionally, strong thunderstorm
wind gusts are possible.

High pressure is centered just to the SE offshore this afternoon. A
low pressure system (~988 mb) is currently centered over the Great
Lakes region, moving eastward towards New England, pushing a weak
cold front across the local waters tonight. Winds have already
increased this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens between
the two systems. Winds are currently SSW around 15-20 kt with gusts
to 25 kt across the Ches. Bay and coastal waters north of the VA/NC
border (5-10 kt, gusts to 15 kt south). Waves are around 1 ft with
seas 2-3 ft. Winds will likely peak later this afternoon and evening
to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the coastal waters north of the
NC border and the Ches. Bay and 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the
rivers (possible for the Lower James to see gusts to 30 kt). A brief
period of gusts to 34 kt is possible in the coastal waters this
evening, with local probs showing about a 50% chance. Given the
southerly wind direction, SST in the 40s, and marginal confidence,
will issue SMWs for 34 kt gusts if needed, rather than a Gale
Warning. Waves and seas will additionally build late tonight/early
Saturday morning to 3-4 ft waves and 4-6 ft seas north of the VA/NC
border and 3-4 ft south. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
through late this evening.

Sub-SCA conditions will return by daybreak Saturday into Saturday
night, as the cold front with the low pressure system brings very
little CAA with its passing. High pressure will build to the NE, but
a stronger low out of the Midwest will move towards the Great Lakes,
pushing a warm front across the local area Sunday, which may lead to
SCA conditions with ESE winds. Then, a stronger cold front will pass
through the region Monday evening. High-end SCA conditions are
likely, with a period of gale conditions possible in southerly flow
ahead of the front and WNW flow immediately behind the front.
Additionally, there is a risk for strong thunderstorm wind gusts
ahead of the front. Seas will build to 5-7 ft S to 7-10 ft N Monday
into Monday night, with 3-5ft waves in the Ches. Bay and locally
higher at the mouth of the Bay. More benign marine conditions are
expected by the middle of next week as high pressure settles across
the region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ638-654-
     656.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...AJZ/KMC