Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

801
FXUS61 KAKQ 231755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1255 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure passes by north of the area this morning,
bringing a chance for light rain showers. Otherwise, dry and
mild conditions prevail later this afternoon through Wednesday.
A backdoor cold front slides across the area later Christmas
Day, and will bring cool and damp temperatures by Friday. The
weekend turns warmer ahead of the next cold front approaching
from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Light showers are expected through this morning, then mainly
  dry and breezy this afternoon.

The latest WX analysis indicates 1032mb high pressure now off
the east coast, with low pressure across the upper midwest, and
an associated warm front lifting ENE through the OH valley and
into the central Appalachians. With increasing southerly low
level flow and clouds, temperatures have generally risen 3-5
degrees since midnight, and are mostly in the upper 30s to lower
40s as the light radar returns move in from the west. Therefore,
forecast soundings are not supportive of any wintry precip
across the northern tier of the area this morning, with just
some light rain showers expected. The primary timeframe for any
showers associated with the system is between sunrise and early
afternoon, and mainly along and E of the I- 95 corridor where
the QPF is slightly higher (though still minimal at around one
tenth of an inch or less). Improving conditions are expected
from WSW- ENE this afternoon, along with breezy WSW flow at
10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. High temperatures will
potentially be around 60F across the Piedmont if clouds clear
early enough. Farther NE, forecast highs are only in the upper
40s to lower 50s where cloud cover will be slower to clear.

Not as cool tonight with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s N
to the mid 40s S under a mostly clear sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Mild and dry Wednesday, remaining mild but with a chance for
  showers Christmas Day.

High pressure returns Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing
mostly sunny sky Wed with some increasing high clouds later in
the day. Forecast highs range from around 50F over the Eastern
Shore and lower 50s along the coasts of SE VA/NE NC where light
N to NE flow will result in cooler temperatures. Farther inland,
it will be warmer with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s well
inland W and SW of the Ches. Bay. Pleasant Christmas Eve with
temperatures falling into the 40s. Another weak low pressure
system and warm front track across the area Christmas morning
resulting in clouds and a chc of showers. The latest NBM and
model guidance is in fairly good agreement showing a large
gradient for high temperatures, ranging from the upper 40s/lower
50s NE to the lower 60s SW. The timing of a backdoor cold front
later in the day will ultimately be crucial in affecting
temperatures. Mostly cloudy and cool Thu night with lows in the
low 30s NE to the 40s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cool and damp Friday, then slowly turning milder Saturday.

- Warmer Sunday with a chance for showers, followed by
  potentially much colder conditions next week.

An anomalous ridge is still expected to persist/strengthen
across the central CONUS late in the week. However, with
another strong ridge forecast to amplify in vicinity of
Greenland, an upper level trough is now forecast by all models
to become rather strong over northern New England and Atlantic
Canada in between the 2 ridges. This a somewhat typical result
of the negative phase of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation),
which will make for a high likelihood of a backdoor cold front
stalling and becoming quiasi-stationary just S of the region
Friday into the first part of the upcoming weekend. The NBM has
finally "caught up" to the trend that global deterministic and
ensemble guidance has been showing for the past 24-36 hrs. While
the brunt of the colder air will be directed more N and NE of
the local area, Friday now looks to be chilly and damp with
highs generally in the 40s (lower 50s possible over the far
south). There are even some ensemble members showing low-end
probs for ~1" of snow on the MD eastern shore Friday, though
will keep the forecast all rain with this forecast cycle. The
surface high and backdoor front will be slow to retreat to the
NE Saturday, so clouds and cooler temperatures potentially
linger through Saturday (especially over the NE 1/2 of the local
area). The longwave pattern undergoes a rather quick transition
Sunday as the upper ridge shifts to the east coast and
amplifies. Meanwhile, a trough develops in vicinity of the
Great Lakes. This trough then digs SE and deepens as it remains
in vicinity of the East Coast early next week. A strong cold
front will precede the upper trough and cross the region Sunday
night. Warm ahead of the cold front Sunday (well into the 60s
with some lower 70s possible SE). A chc of showers during the
afternoon and evening, then turning much colder with highs only
in the 30s to lower 40s early next week behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals will persist through the
18z/23 TAF period. Some LLWS has been included for a 3-5 hr
period this aftn at PHF/ORF/ECG where the low level jet brings
WSW winds to 45-50 kt. Otherwise, winds diminish through the
late aftn into the evening gradually clearing sky. Dry tonight
with light W-SW winds shifting to the N-NW overnight.

Outlook: High pressure rebuilds into the area on Wednesday, with
continued VFR conditions expected. A frontal boundary and fast
moving low pressure system will bring a low end chc for showers
Christmas Day, with SBY having the highest chc for flight
restrictions. Additional short-lived flight restrictions are
possible late Friday afternoon into early Saturday as onshore
flow develops.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect this morning through this
  evening in the Chesapeake Bay.

- A brief period of marginal SCA criteria is possible Wednesday morning
  with sub-SCA conditions Wednesday evening through the
  weekend.

The latest wx analysis shows a ~1032 mb high pressure centered
just offshore the area this morning. S winds are currently 10-15
kt, becoming SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after sunrise
as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for the Ches. Bay beginning at 7 AM
this morning for the middle bay and 10 AM for the lower and
mouth bay. A short period of gusts to 25 kt is possible in the
northern coastal waters, but this seems to be possible only for
a short period of time, so have held off on issuing SCA for
this. By this evening, winds will shift out of the W and
diminish to around 10 kt in the Ches. Bay and 10-15 kt in the
coastal waters.

NW winds will increase again slightly Wednesday after sunrise to 10-
15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20 kt in the
coastal waters, as a weak cold front moves down across the area.
Marginal SCAs may be needed for the Ches. Bay and northern coastal
waters. Once again, winds will decrease in the evening Wednesday,
remaining below SCA criteria for Thursday through the weekend. The
next big system will approach the area late weekend with a strong
cold front potentially crossing the waters Sunday night into Monday.
SCA are possible, but there is a large amount of uncertainty this
far out.

Waves and seas are currently around 1 ft in the bay and 2-3 ft in
the coastal waters, increasing to 1-3 ft and 2-4 ft, respectively,
today as the winds increase slightly. Waves and seas will remain
below SCA criteria through the end of the week, possibly increasing
late weekend ahead of the next potential system.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-
     650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ631-
     632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...KMC