Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

156
FXUS61 KAKQ 241830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
230 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable
   humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of a stray
   shower near the Albemarle Sound.

2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily
   chances for showers/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable
humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of a stray shower
near the Albemarle Sound.

It`s another beautiful late August day in the Mid-Atlantic.
Dewpoints are in the 50s pretty much everywhere and temps are in the
mid 80s under mostly to partly sunny skies. There is a stationary
boundary laying right along the Albemarle Sound, which has already
triggered a few showers/storms to the south. Based on the lack of Cu
and lower dewpoints on the north side of the sound, confidence is
low that any of those showers make it into the FA. Still cannot rule
it out, though, so kept the 20-30% PoP along the far south through
the early evening. The dry air already in place, light north winds,
and mostly clear skies overnight will allow for another cool night.
Went a bit below guidance for the lows to account for this, yielding
lows in the upper 50s in the NW and the inland rural areas and low
to mid 60s elsewhere. The sfc high remains in place through early
Wednesday, so expecting a very similar day tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with
daily chances for showers/storms.

Global models indicate that the sfc high slides offshore sometime
Wed/Thurs and the flow aloft shifts back to the SW. Wednesday still
looks like a decent day, but the dewpoints will climb back into the
60s with the return of southerly flow. Still mostly dry on Wed, but
evening showers/storms could creep into western portions of the area
based on latest guidance. As of now, Thurs and Fri look like the
days for most widespread storms when another front comes through.
Not too sure about the risk of severe now that chances for morning
precip have increased on Thurs and the flow aloft will be weakening
going into Fri. If precip can hold out until the afternoon Thurs,
could certainly see a few stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/24 TAF period as high
pressure remains in control. Dry conditions continue, though a
stray showers could make it up to ECG later this afternoon.
Confidence is still pretty low, so kept mention of rain out of
the ECG TAF. Winds are generally out of the WSW with the
exception of NE at ORF due to a forming sea breeze. Light winds
turn to the north overnight.

Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the
mid week period. Shower/storm chances return late in the week
with localized sub-VFR possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected through much of the week.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week.
Current winds and wave heights are about as calm as possible with
light and variable winds and wave heights in the Bay less than 1 ft.
A weak front will move through tonight into early Tuesday morning
turning winds north/northeasterly and allowing speeds to increase
slightly for a few hours. Guidance still shows speeds being sub-SCA,
but some gusts to 20kt will be possible across the Bay through
sunrise. Corresponding wave heights may become 2-3ft until winds
subside mid to late morning. Seas will remain around 2ft with waves
in the Bay returning to ~1ft into Wednesday. High pressure will
slide offshore mid-week tightening our pressure gradient locally.
Southeasterly winds are expected to become 12-18kt later Wednesday
through Thursday morning, but still remain below SCA thresholds as
of now. A brief lull is likely during the day on Thursday before
becoming 10-15kt once again in the evening. Thunderstorm chances
also return after mid-week bringing the chance of gusty erratic
winds around/within any storm. Seas look to build to 3-4 ft (highest
offshore) Thursday into early Friday. A weak cold front may cross
the coast by early Saturday.

A 10-12 second dominant wave period is expected Tuesday into
Wednesday. However, the rip risk should remain low as long as
nearshore waves remain 2 ft or less.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...JKP