Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

287
FXUS61 KAKQ 251040
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
640 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated full discussion. No major forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A more typical summertime pattern takes hold today and
continues through the rest of the workweek. Afternoon/evening
thunderstorm chances return on Friday.

2) Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend
with hot and humid weather expected, especially on Saturday.
Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures return early next
week.

3) A warming trend is expected by the middle of next week, but
shower/storm chances remain very low through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A more typical summertime pattern takes hold today
and continues through the rest of the workweek. Afternoon/evening
thunderstorm chances return on Friday.

Very pleasant wx continues early this morning with temperatures
generally in the 60s-lower 70s and dew pts in the upper 50s-lower
60s. Surface high pressure has pushed just to our SE, with very
light S-SE flow across the area. Quasi-zonal flow prevails aloft
from the central CONUS to the Mid-Atlantic, with several shortwaves
tracking from the High Plains to TN Valley.

A warming trend begins today with upper 80s expected across the
majority of the area (lower to mid 80s at the coast) along with
increasing humidity, but still somewhat comfortable for late June.
Dry weather will continue to prevail through Friday morning. It will
be even warmer (low-mid 90s) on Friday with continued low-level S-SW
flow. Heat indices ~100F are possible in SE VA/NE NC, but generally
mid/upper 90s for most of the area. However, an approaching
shortwave will bring a chance of showers and tstms to the area
during the afternoon and evening. While it is uncertain exactly how
convection will evolve, there are hints that tstms initially develop
in 2 areas Friday afternoon: along the higher terrain to our west
and to our SW across the central Carolinas. The highest storm
chances will initially be across northern and western portions of
the area, with isolated-scattered convection potentially spreading E
or SE during the early part of Friday night before diurnal weakening
occurs. It is important to note that most areas probably stay dry
Fri aftn/evening, especially in SE VA/NE NC. With the heat and
humidity, a few stronger tstms capable of producing highly localized
damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out, especially given increasing
500mb flow in advance of a shortwave trough to our NW.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the
weekend with hot and humid weather expected, especially on Saturday.
Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures return early next week.

The upper level flow gradually shifts from the W to NW over the
weekend as strong ridging builds over the Mississippi River Valley.
A series of shortwaves will drag a cold front through the area late
Sunday or Sunday night. While there could be an isolated shower or
storm closer to the coast Saturday morning-midday, scattered to
potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected area-wide from
Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening as a slightly stronger
shortwave tracks over the area. With decent W-WNW flow aloft, some
storm organization will likely occur on Saturday. Convective
coverage likely peaks during the 4 PM-9 PM timeframe before
gradually weakening Saturday night. Once again, a few stronger tstms
will be capable of producing highly localized damaging wind gusts as
it will continue to be hot and humid. In fact, 100-105F heat indices
are forecast across southern VA/NE NC. Convective coverage is
expected to be a bit less on Sunday and confined more to southern
portions of the FA as the front begins moving through the area and
the low-level flow becomes N-NE across northern portions of the FA.
Dry and fairly pleasant weather for the end of June is expected on
Monday, with temps in the mid-upper 80s and noticeably lower
humidity as high pressure builds toward the area from the NNE.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend is expected by the middle of next
week, but shower/storm chances remain very low through Wednesday.

Upper heights gradually rise from Tuesday-Wednesday as the strong
ridge builds E from the Mississippi River Valley. This will lead to
a warming trend, though storm chances will remain very low with sfc
high pressure remaining just offshore and no forcing mechanism for
convection. After seasonable temps Tuesday, temps could rise well
into the 90s by the middle to latter portion of next week with heat
indices climbing above 100F across a decent portion of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Light and
variable winds tonight become SW 5-10 kt by mid to late morning.
Sea breeze effects will favor SE winds for the coastal
terminals in the afternoon. Scattered CU can be expected during
the late morning and afternoon hours. VFR tonight with light
S-SE winds.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions through midday Fri. Diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms develop Friday afternoon and
evening, with the best chc at RIC/SBY. There is a better chc of
showers/tstms on Saturday across the entire area, and low-end
shower/storm chances continue on Sunday (mainly S/SE).
Prevailing conditions will be VFR outside of sub-VFR conditions
in convection. VFR conditions are expected to return by the
beginning of next week as a cold front moves south of the
forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- South to southeast winds in the Chesapeake Bay increase around Small
  Craft Advisory criteria this afternoon into late tonight.

- Generally quiet marine conditions expected for the weekend outside
  of any thunderstorm activity ahead of a cold front on
  Friday through Saturday night.

High pressure has shifted offshore this morning and winds have
shifted to the southeast to south. Current marine observation sites
are measuring between 5-10 kts along the rivers and 10-15 kts across
the Bay and coastal waters. Seas have quickly subsided since
yesterday morning, 1 ft or less in the Bay and 2-3 ft in the coastal
waters.

The pressure gradient will increase across the waters today, and the
channeling up the Chesapeake Bay may allow for 15-20 kt winds this
afternoon into tonight has prompted the issuance of a brief Small
Craft Advisory. While it will be very marginal, will likely see a
few hours SCA winds/gusts in the Bay. South winds of 10 to 20 kt
will continue into Friday although the strongest winds may be in the
coastal waters. Winds turn southwest ahead of a cold front which
passes through the waters Saturday night leading to winds turning
north and northeast by Sunday. However, the expectation is that
winds will stay less than 15 kt through the weekend outside of any
thunderstorm activity which may occur on Friday and Saturday. Seas
throughout the weekend generally 1 ft or less in the Bay and 3 feet
or less over the coastal waters.

A low rip current risk will likely remain through late week with
generally benign conditions currently forecast, the lack of shore-
normal flow, and shorter period waves.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...NB/MRD