Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

539
FXUS61 KAKQ 100709
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
309 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Precip totals have trended down slightly. Severe risk for
Sunday was upgraded to a Slight Risk.

Gale Watches south of Chincoteague were upgraded to warnings.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain chances increase tonight into Sunday as the remnants of
Hurricane Isaias move farther inland. There is a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather Sunday.

2) A brief warmup is expected early next week with cooler
temperatures later in the week.

3) Nuisance to Minor tidal flooding is expected with the high
tide cycle Sunday for portions of Hampton Roads, the western
shore of the Chesapeake Bay and the lower Maryland eastern
shore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances increase Saturday night into Sunday as
the remnants of Hurricane Isaias move farther inland. There is a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather Sunday.

Hurricane Isaias made landfall on the FL panhandle late last evening
and was just starting to cross into Alabama as of 2am as it
degrades. Here locally in the Mid-Atlantic sfc high pressure is
still in charge for now. Isaias will transition into an extra-
tropical system as it treks north today toward TN/KY/WV. A warm
front will extend east from the parent low and push north towards
the FA. A subtle coastal trough forming along the front along with
high pressure ridging down the mountains will set up a relatively
weak CAD over the piedmont tonight into tomorrow. The FA will spend
Sunday morning-mid day in the warm sector, then the low will
progress northeast and drag a cold front through Sunday evening. The
evolution of this system will bring widespread rain to the area as
well as the chance for a few tornadoes and strong winds.

Rain will arrive ahead of the warm front as early as this afternoon
to far southern/southwestern counties then spreads across the area
in earnest after 8pm, continuing overnight. This is when the bulk
of appreciable rainfall should fall and when the aforementioned
coastal trough could locally enhance rainfall near the Outer Banks.
The 00z high res models and ensembles as well as the global
deterministic models are leaning hard on the idea of a dry slot
across central portions of the area, roughly along the I-95
corridor, after the warm front lifts through the area. A secondary
line of showers/storms would then impact the area ahead of the cold
front. As a result, the projected precip totals are less than
previous model suites. The high res models indicate a widespread
~0.5" with locally higher 1-2" along coastal SE VA and NE NC.
Meanwhile, a global ensemble like the GEFS has something similar in
its 10th percentile with a mean of 1-2" for most and 2-2.5" for the
southeast. The 90th percentile has around 3". The NBM, of course,
reflects this spread with a wide range in its percentiles from less
than an inch in the 10th to around 3" in the 90th. The dry slot was
incorporated into the QPF since confidence is increasing in this
solution. Now expecting 1-1.5" total along the coast and across the
piedmont with central portions of the area receiving less than an
inch. Areas near the Albemarle Sound may experience locally higher
amounts of 2-3". Flood threat is low, but urban and poor drainage
areas could see localized flooding Sunday morning.

The threat for severe weather comes in as the low traverses northern
VA/MD and drags a cold front through the local area. Most of the
CAMs depict a broken line of convection and/or supercells Sunday
afternoon ahead of the front. An influx of instability to around 800-
1000 J/kg (per RRFS/REFS) would support strong to severe storms. The
modeled wind profile is favorable for supercells with SE winds at
the sfc, strengthening deep layer shear, and curved hodographs. This
could mean strong to severe winds and even a few tornadoes. Of
course if the dry slot is never realized, it would likely put a
damper on instability and therefore severe chances. Also, the CAD
setup will likely limit severe potential for at least areas NW of
Richmond. SPC has upgraded the entire FA to a Slight Risk with a 5%
tornado risk and 15% severe wind risk.

Regarding temperatures, highs will be in the upper 60s in the
piedmont and low 70s E of I-95 today. Tomorrow, highs will range
from the upper 70s/around 80 in the southeast to the low 70s in the
northwest. Breezy conditions are forecast as well with gusts of 20-
25mph inland and 25-35mph at the coast starting this afternoon
through tomorrow, peaking early Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A brief warmup is expected early next week with
cooler temperatures later in the week.

Aloft, a ridge centered across the central CONUS gradually builds
into the region through the week. Meanwhile, surface high pressure
remains centered across the Deep South through midweek before a
second area of high pressure builds in from the north late in the
week. This will result in a brief warm-up with highs in the mid to
upper 70s on Monday and low 80s on Tues. Per usual, the Eastern
Shore can expect to be several degrees cooler each day. Still a tad
warm on Wed, then cooling back to seasonal norms later in the week
through the weekend. Mostly dry through mid-week, then trending
toward a more unsettled pattern starting Thurs.

KEY MESSAGE 3..Nuisance to Minor tidal flooding is expected with
the high tide cycle Sunday for portions of Hampton Roads, the western
shore of the Chesapeake Bay and the lower Maryland eastern shore.

A rapid rise in water levels is expected with the Sunday high
tide cycle, occurring mainly in the morning for the lower
Chesapeake Bay, lower James, and during the afternoon farther
north across the middle Peninsula/northern Neck and late
afternoon into early evening for the lower Maryland eastern
shore Bay zones. Given the E-SE wind direction, the highest
impacts, potentially approaching moderate flood locally would
be the northern Neck along the tidal Potomac. This should be
just one tide cycle with the fast moving nature of this system
and winds becoming S-SW later Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the bulk of the 06z/10 TAF period.
High level cloud cover will continue across the area today well
out ahead of Hurricane Isaias which made landfall on the FL
panhandle late last evening. Easterly winds increase to around
10 kt today, becoming gusty at ORF and ECG during the afternoon
through the rest of the period. Clouds thicken and lower later
in the period, becoming MVFR everywhere but SBY after 00z
tonight. Rain associated with the remnants of the Isaias moves
into the area late in the period as well, but heavier rates that
could impact vsby should hold off until after 06z Sun.

Outlook: Widespread rain moves into the area from south to
north Sat night into Sun associated with the remnants of
Isaias. Degraded VIS and CIGs are likely. Additionally, breezy
conditions are expected late Sat night into early Sun with E
winds increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt inland and
15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt along the coast. Winds become
SE Sun afternoon behind a warm front lifting north.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through the first half of today.

- Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories in effect starting
  this afternoon into Sunday as the remnants of Isaias track
  through the TN Valley and towards the local area, with strong
  high pressure well off the east coast.

Isaias is rapidly transitioning into an extratropical cyclone as it
interacts with a strong shortwave aloft over the central Gulf Coast.
1026mb high pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic ahead of Isaias`
remnant circulation, leading to easterly winds 5-10 kt over the
local waters. Waves are around 1 foot in the bay with seas around 2
ft.

The surface high will transition slowly eastward today and
strengthen to 1030+mb as the extratropical remnants of Isaias
slowly weaken over the Tennessee Valley. The resulting pressure
gradient will steepen across the region with easterly winds
increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt from south to north
through the afternoon. No changes were required to the previously
issued SCA headlines with small craft conditions likely in the
Currituck Sound, lower James River, and Chesapeake Bay by mid to
late afternoon. Winds increase further overnight with SCAs going
into effect for the remaining zones. Have added a ramp up SCA for
the Atlantic zones north of Parramore Island tonight. Also upgraded
the previous Gale Watches to Gale Warnings for the mouth of the bay
and ocean zones south of Parramore Island as we are within 24 hours
of the strongest winds. A warm front lifts northward tonight/Sunday
with easterly winds becoming SE and increasing to 20-25 kt with
gusts to 30 kt in the bay/sound/rivers and 25-30 kt with gusts to 35
kt for the mouth of the bay and Atlantic coastal waters. This period
of gale conditions will be rather brief (~6-9 hours at any one
point) with winds expected to diminish slightly and become SSE
behind the warm frontal passage. Ongoing Gale Watches north of
Parramore Island will likely be upgraded to Gale Warnings on the day
shift today.

The gradient is forecast to slacken considerably by Sunday evening.
Waves in the bay build to 3-5 ft Sunday (but up to 5-7 ft at the
mouth of the Bay), before relaxing to 2-3 ft Sunday night/Monday AM.
Seas offshore increase to 6-9 ft nearshore and 7-11 ft in the 20-60
nm zones. 5+ ft seas and SCA headlines will likely linger well into
Monday for the Atlantic coastal waters. There is a chance that a
High Surf Advisory may be needed Sunday, especially for the eastern
shore, but confidence is not high so will hold off for now.

A cold front is forecast to cross the waters in the wake of the
departing system Monday morning. Latest guidance suggests another
brief period of SCA conditions are possible across portions of the
Ches Bay through early afternoon as cooler and drier air filter into
the region. Another front crosses the waters Wednesday with SCA
conditions possible once again.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ633-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ634.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-
     652.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     ANZ650-652-680-682.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ654-656.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ654-656-684-
     686.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ658.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon EDT Sunday for
     ANZ658-688.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RHR