Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

273
FXUS61 KAKQ 071029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
629 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered low temperatures for today and Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE
NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

2) A cold front approaches the area today, bringing a chance
for afternoon and evening showers and storms.

3) Cooler Monday and Tuesday with hot weather returning by late
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for
portions of NE NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

Ongoing drought conditions, lack of widespread wetting rain leading
to low soil moisture, and abnormally dry dead fuels have led to high
levels of fire danger in Northeast North Carolina. Additionally,
there is lower moisture content in live coastal fuels. These factors
are combined with hot temperatures today and abnormally low RH
values (25-35%). NC Forest Service has requested an Increased
Fire Danger Statement (IFD) again for today.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front approaches the area today, bringing
a chance for afternoon and evening showers and storms.

Temps as of 140 AM ranged from the mid 60s to mid 70s across the
region with most in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clouds will
continue to move into the northern portions of the area early
this morning which should keep the coolest temps across southern
portions of the FA. As such, have lowered morning lows into the
upper 60s to around 70F for most with a few locations likely
dropping into the mid 60s. The main change to the forecast for
today was to lower temps areawide, especially across far SE
VA/NE NC. Yesterday (Saturday) the NBM temperatures were around
2-3F too warm across most of the area and up to 4F too warm
across portions of NE NC (including the ECG climate site). Given
a similar setup today, this trend will likely continue. Local
tools deriving max temp from thickness as well as statistical
and most hi-res guidance (including the HREF) support this
change. As such, have lowered temps with highs now expected to
range from the upper 80s to around 90F north of I-64 and mainly
lower to perhaps mid 90s south.

An area of low pressure moves across New England this afternoon,
pushing a cold front towards the local area by late this
afternoon. Ahead of the front, isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to form during the
afternoon and evening hours. CAMs are in general agreement on
coverage and location of the convection. Convection could begin
as early as 11 AM-12 PM across the NW portion of the FA before
spreading ESE/SE with time and expanding in coverage. However,
the eastern extent of the convection remains uncertain. As such,
have the highest confidence across the Piedmont (35-45% PoPs)
with lower confidence across E/SE VA and NE NC (20-30% PoPs).
Additionally, there does appear to be some potential for
redevelopment of scattered showers and storms across the
Piedmont this evening. If this redevelopment does occur,
showers/storms could make it into S/SE VA and NE NC this
evening with convection tapering off by around 2 AM Mon. Will
note that there remains a low-end potential for a few strong to
severe storms. Surface heating will provide steep low level
lapse rates, and there`s just enough moisture for modest
instability. The main threat would be damaging wind gusts. The
SPC has placed most of the area in a Marginal Risk with the
exception of the MD Eastern Shore. Given the isolated-scattered
nature of the convection, not everyone will see rain. However, a
few locations could receive 0.25-0.5"+. The HREF even had a 30%
chance for 1" of rain across portions of the Piedmont.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler Monday and Tuesday with hot weather
returning by late week.

The cold front cross south of the local area tonight with high
pressure building in behind it. Onshore flow develops on Mon
with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible along the coast. Given cool
onshore flow, much cooler temps are likely, particularly along
the coast. Highs likely won`t reach above the upper 60s at Ocean
City, MD with temps struggling to warm above 70F at Virginia
Beach. Temps will be a bit warmer farther inland with highs in
the low-mid 80s for most away from the coast. However, will note
that some model guidance such as the NAM have most of the area
in the upper 70s with around 80F mainly confined to west of
I-95. While this solution may be too cool, temps could continue
to trend cooler. Similar temps are expected Tue, though a bit
warmer. Additionally, with a ~1023mb high centering over the
Eastern Shore Mon night, much cooler temps are possible Mon
night into Tue morning. Widespread lows Mon night/Tue morning
in the low-mid 50s are likely with the potential for upper 40s
across mainly the Eastern Shore.

The cooler weather will be brief with much warmer temps arriving
by late week as an upper level ridge builds over the Eastern
CONUS. While exact details regarding temps will likely change as
we get closer, mid-upper 90s appear possible by Thu-Fri.
Additionally, the late week period into the weekend could be
unsettled as well with daily chance of showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Sunday...

Primarily VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
12z taf period. Mainly FEW-SCT cirrus continue to move into the
area this morning. A cold front approaches from the N this
afternoon before slowly dropping south across the region late
this afternoon into tonight. Ahead of the front, enough
instability is expected for SCT-BKN CU (6000-8000 ft CIGs) to
develop during the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and continue
into the evening with convection slowly dropping south with
time. The best chance of showers/storms (35-45%) is centered
generally from RIC W/SW with lower PoPs (20-30%) for
PHF/ORF/ECG. Given the isolated to scattered nature of
convection, confidence in exact timing and location of any
shower/storm is low. As such, have PROB30s for thunderstorms at
RIC/PHF (where confidence is a bit higher) and PROB30s for
showers at ORF/ECG (due to lower confidence in both convection
overall and lightning). Will note that lightning is possible at
ORF/ECG, but with confidence too low to add to the PROB30 at
this time. Any showers/storms should end by around 6z (2 AM
Mon). Clearing skies are expected tonight. Winds were generally
SW ~5 kt at RIC/SBY/PHF and SW ~10 kt at ORF/ECG. Winds
gradually become W ~10 kt everywhere later today with gusts up
to 15-20 kt possible. Winds become light and variable/calm
tonight behind the cold front.

Outlook...High pressure builds across New England in the wake
of the cold front Monday/Tuesday with VFR conditions expected.
High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday/Thursday with a low chance
of mainly diurnal showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions prevail today and tonight.

- A cold front is forecast to cross the coast late tonight
  followed by a period of NE/onshore flow and potential Small
  Craft Advisory conditions, especially in the southern
  Chesapeake Bay and southern coastal waters.

High pressure is anchored off the Southeast coast with low pressure
over Quebec. A cold front extends to the SW of the low across the
Great Lakes. Winds locally are SW 10-15 kt with a few gusts 20-25 kt
(highest S and offshore). Opted to cancel the SCA headlines in the
Currituck Sound early as observations continue to show winds below
criteria. The gradient will slacken a bit today ahead of the surface
cold front with SW winds becoming variable in the afternoon. The
front crosses the waters late tonight into Monday with N winds
becoming NE and increasing to 15-20 kt in the southern Ches Bay and
coastal waters. SCA headlines are increasingly likely for these
areas over the next forecast cycle or two, mainly for 4-6 ft seas
offshore and 3-4 ft seas in the southern bay. Conditions in the
lower James River and Currituck Sound are a bit more uncertain but
these zones may also need headlines on Monday. High pressure builds
down the coast later Monday into Tuesday, maintaining onshore
flow. Ridging moves offshore by midweek with SE and S winds
returning to the region. Another period of marginal SCA
conditions is possible late Wednesday into Thursday as southerly
flow strengthens between high pressure offshore and lee
troughing over inland areas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

         6/7
RIC   100/2008
ORF   101/2008
SBY    97/2008
ECG    99/2008

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 10 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ013>017-030>032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...RMM