Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

134
FXUS61 KAKQ 211103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
703 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
this afternoon and evening, along with the potential for
localized areas of flash flooding through tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The threat of severe thunderstorms will linger
into Wednesday and the potential for torrential rainfall to
produce scattered instances of flash flooding will also
increase through Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
this afternoon and evening, along with the potential for
localized areas of flash flooding through tonight.

A few showers have developed and will move across the FA,
especially eastern areas, between now and 10 am but the main
show comes later this morning into this afternoon and evening
ahead of a potent upper trough. Flow aloft strengthens
considerably by the afternoon hours with 40-50 kt of flow noted
at 500mb. Low level moisture also ramps up with PWAT values
climbing back above 2". Instability is a bit more uncertain with
clouds possibly hampering heating to some extent but models
still show 2000- 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the area. Storm mode
is also somewhat uncertain with the potential for a mix of
linear segments and semi-discrete cells. All these factors point
to a robust severe wx threat across the region. SPC has most of
the area in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) with a sliver of Enhanced
Risk (lvl 3/5) clipping far northern portions of the MD Eastern
Shore. Could see the higher risk area being shifted a bit south
and east in subsequent outlooks pending greater clarity on
degree of cloud cover and storm morphology. As is typical for
Mid-Atlantic July severe setups, the main threat will be from
damaging winds but a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled
out, especially across the N and NE portions of the region where
the shear and low level helicity are progged to be strongest.
The threat of severe storms should last well into the evening
hours if not into early Wednesday morning. Additionally, the
fast storm motion will largely preclude a widespread flooding
risk. However, areas that get repeated storms late today into
tonight due have a risk of flash flooding (SLGT ERO down to the
VA/NC border).

KEY MESSAGE 2...The threat of severe thunderstorms will linger
into Wednesday and the potential for torrential rainfall to
produce scattered instances of flash flooding will also
increase through Wednesday night.

The severe threat likely continues into Wednesday, but with the
higher probabilities shifted to the south and east ahead of a
southward-moving cold front. How convection evolves on Tuesday
will also influence the degree of cloud cover and
destabilization potential on Wednesday. That said, the flow
aloft is forecast to remain rather strong. SPC has a Slight Risk
outlined for our entire CWA (lvl 2/5).

Despite the ongoing drought conditions, Wednesday into Wednesday
night is showing an increasingly confident signal for localized
flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. WPC has
most of the area in a Slight Risk ERO again Wednesday with PWAT
generally 2-2.25". Decent flow aloft should keep individual
cells moving but training storms on top of the rainfall received
Tuesday could cause scattered instances of flash flooding. All
total, the QPF forecast through Thursday has generally 2-5" of
rain from Richmond and Emporia eastward to SE MD and NE NC.

Some drier air finally moves back into the region Thursday and
Friday but some showers and storms will remain possible, mainly
across the southern and southeastern portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 0700 AM EDT Tuesday...

Starting off mainly dry and VFR for the start of the 12z TAF
period but chances for storms quickly ramp up after 16z.
Strong-severe storms are also possible, mainly after 18z, which
could bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and strong wind
gusts. Outside of storms, winds today will become gusty out of
the SW to 20-25 kt. Showers and thunderstorms will continue this
evening and potentially into early Wed morning.

Outlook: Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
Wednesday and Wednesday night, especially after 16z. Flight
restrictions will be likely with the strongest storms. Rain and
storm chances shift south by late week, but could still impact
KORF/KPHF down to KECG.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for late today into
Wednesday for most of the local marine area.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible today and Wednesday, primarily
during the afternoons and evenings.

A warm front is lifting through the area early this morning. Breezy,
sub-advisory level winds are turning to the SW south of the front.
Latest obs show winds around 10kt with gusts around 15kt. Winds
gradually increase today as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of
a cold front. Sustained winds around 15kt expected during the
morning, then approaching 20kt by late afternoon. Winds are expected
to peak overnight at 20-25kt with gusts of 30-34kt over the bay,
lower James, and coastal waters (15-20kt with gusts to 25kt over
upper tidal rivers). A few gusts around 35kt will be possible past
20nm, especially for the southern zones. These conditions continue
into Wed morning, then diminishing Wed afternoon and evening. SCAs
are in effect for all marine zones (excluding the 20-60nm zones
where SCAs are not issued) starting late this afternoon. Winds turn
to the north behind the cold front Wed night into early Thurs and
briefly surge back to 15-20kt. May end up needing another round of
SCAs for the bay early Thursday for this. Lighter NE winds are then
forecast Thurs afternoon into the weekend.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected over the next few
days. Some storms may be severe with strong, erratic winds. Highest
risk this afternoon and overnight would be across the northern
waters. Storm coverage shifts south Wednesday into Thursday, turning
into more of a heavy rain threat.

Seas build to 3-4ft by this evening as the winds pick up with waves
in the bay increasing to 2-3ft. Seas of 4-5ft for southern nearshore
waters and 5-6ft for the northern nearshore waters are forecast
overnight (6-7ft offshore). Waves up to 4ft expected in the bay
overnight. 5ft+ seas may linger as late as Wednesday night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDM/RHR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ/AC