Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

819
FXUS61 KAKQ 210507
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1207 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence continues to increase with respect to the
development of coastal low pressure Sunday into Monday, along
with accumulating snow Sunday night into early Monday. However,
confidence remains low with regard to where the greatest snow
accumulations occur.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Improving conditions through tonight with a cold front
dropping through the region. This front settles into the
Carolinas Saturday as a wave of low pressure tracks along the
boundary.

2) Strong coastal low pressure likely impacts the region Sunday
into early Monday resulting in the potential for accumulating
snow along with hazardous marine conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Improving conditions through tonight with a
cold front dropping through the region. This front settles into
the Carolinas Saturday as a wave of low pressure tracks along
the boundary.

A vigorous trough lingers over the Great Lakes this afternoon,
with zonal WSW flow across the Mid-Atlantic region. At the
surface, a cold front is pushing across eastern VA and SE MD and
this has resulted in rapidly improving conditions. Temperatures
have moderated into the lower to mid 60s where low clouds have
scattered. There are some lingering showers across NE NC, but
this activity should move offshore by 4-5 PM. Beneficial rain of
0.5-0.75" and locally 1.0-1.5" fell across central VA and the
Eastern Shore during the past 36 hours. However, only a 0.1" or
less fell across far southern VA and NE NC. Drier air spreads
across the region tonight with lows in the 40s. A wave of low
pressure tracks along the front Saturday as it settles across
the Carolinas. This will bring clouds, but only a 20-30% chc of
light rain across far southern VA/NE NC. Any QPF will be light
and only on the order of a few hundredths of an inch. Highs
Saturday will mainly be in the 50s to around 60F.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong coastal low pressure likely impacts the
region Sunday into early Monday resulting in the potential for
accumulating snow along with hazardous marine conditions.

A strong upper trough dives SE through the Midwest Saturday
night and digs into the Mid-South and Carolinas Sunday, before
becoming a closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night.
Strong surface low pressure quickly develops off the coast later
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Confidence has increased.
However, there are some differences in the deterministic models
and ensemble spread with regard to how close the low develops to
the coast. This casts some uncertainty with sensible weather
impacts, especially where the heaviest snow band sets up Sunday
night/early Monday and how much accumulating snow falls across
primarily NE portions of the local area. The 20/12Z GFS/GEFS
remain on the higher end of the guidance and are overall more
amplified and push accumulating snow much farther W/SW into
central VA. 12z EPS probs for >3" (10:1 SLR) of snow are
generally 70-90% from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore,
with the CMC GEPS 50-80%. For >6" probs, the EPS is mainly 40-
60% from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore, with the GEPS
similar but primarily on the Eastern Shore. Of note, there was a
westward shift and increase in the EPS probs. The 12z EPS 50th
percentile is 4-5" the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore, with
the GEPS similar for the Northern Neck and 5-7" for the Eastern
Shore. With the westward shift in the EPS, a 3-4" median shifts
into the northern portion of the I-95 corridor.

All these probs assume a 10:1 SLR and accumulate snow as soon
as the model changes precipitation to snow. The heaviest
precipitation likely occurs Sunday evening into the early
overnight hours, and this is when cold air is initially pulled
into the system changing rain to snow. This will limit some
accumulation at the onset with snow falling on relatively warm
and wet ground. SLRs were nudged down to ~8:1 for this period,
and then gradually trend upward as colder air is pulled into the
storm. The latest forecast has 4-5" over SE MD, 2-3" from the
Northern Neck to the VA Eastern Shore, and 0.5-2" back into
central VA, and 0.5" or less elsewhere. Snow could accumulate on
roads where snowfall rates and amounts are higher and
accumulation will mainly be on the grass and elevated surfaces
where rates/amounts are lower. With an event like this, it is
possible or even likely that we see a sharp cut-off from several
inches of snow to little to no snow. A Winter Storm Watch will
not be issued at this time given enough uncertainty on exact
details, and that the event is still beyond 48 hours. In
addition rain and snow, strong gusty winds are likely,
especially along the coast.

Temperatures will be below average to begin the week, with a
moderating trend by midweek ahead of another cold front. There
is a chance of rain with this cold front later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1206 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow evening at all
terminals. Winds continue out of the SW between 7-12 kts. By
later this morning winds will lighten and become variable.
Throughout today winds will increase between 5 to 10 kt out of
the NNE under mostly clear skies. Confidence for light showers
across the far SE has increased and a prob-30 for ECG has been
added. There still remains some uncertainity for showers making
their way up towards ORF and PHF.

Outlook: Strong low pressure develops off the coast Sunday into
Monday and this has the potential to bring another period of
rain, gusty winds, and flight restrictions to the region Sunday
into early Monday. Precipitation could end as a rain/snow mix or
all snow at SBY and RIC. Drier air and high pressure will bring
a return to VFR conditions later Monday, which continues through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect until 7 PM for the
  coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light due to elevated
  seas to 5 feet.

- A stronger system impacts the waters Sunday into Monday.
  Confidence in gale conditions continues to increase, and Gale
  Watches have been issued for all of the coastal waters and
  Chesapeake Bay from Sunday evening-early Monday afternoon.

SW winds of 10-15 kt prevail over the waters this afternoon.
Seas are ~4 ft, although 5 foot seas continue to linger across
the northern coastal waters where SCAs remain in effect until 7
PM this evening. Sub-advisory winds are expected through
Saturday night as weak high pressure briefly settles over the
waters. Winds then become NE at 10-15 kt by late Sunday morning
in advance of our next system.

Deteriorating marine conditions are expected later Sunday and
especially Sunday night/early Monday morning as a strong low
pressure system develops near the coast Sunday and moves out to
sea. The low will likely deepen to 975-980mb by Monday. However,
how quickly (and close to the coast) it deepens will determine
exact impacts to our marine area (but degraded marine conditions
are likely regardless). There are still some differences in the
models and their respective ensembles, but the 12z/20 guidance
has trended slightly towards a stronger system closer to the
coast. The GFS/NAM remain the strongest and closest to the
coast, but the ECMWF and Canadian have trended slightly upward
with respect to winds. The current forecast shows winds becoming
N at 20-25 kt (w/ gusts to 30 kt) by Sunday afternoon before
becoming NW Sunday night and increasing to 25-35 kt with gusts
to 35-45 kt (highest across the northern coastal waters). Peak
winds are expected to occur between midnight and 9 AM Monday
before diminishing to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Monday
afternoon (with the wind direction remaining NW). Regardless of
specific model details, local wind probabilities for 34+ knot
winds are now 70-90% over the ocean and 50-80% over the
Chesapeake Bay. If things continue to trend stronger, occasional
storm force gusts are possible, especially over the coastal
waters north of Cape Charles. Given all the above, have issued
Gale Watches for the entire bay and coastal waters from Sunday
evening-Monday afternoon. SCA winds are expected to continue
through Tuesday morning before finally dropping below SCA levels
during the day on Tue as high pressure returns to the area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634>638-656-658.
     Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...ERI