Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

806
FXUS61 KAKQ 182335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
735 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures remain below average today through Thursday morning.
Another hard freeze is likely late tonight/early Thursday morning
for rural inland areas.

2) Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day
Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into
next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next
weekend outside of a minimal chance of showers Friday night.

3) A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week
bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures remain below average today through
Thursday morning. Another hard freeze is likely late
tonight/early Thursday morning for rural inland areas.

Latest wx analysis shows high pressure centered over the area with
an upper air trough over most of the Eastern US. There`s a few high
clouds and CU across the area this afternoon with temperatures in
the upper 30s to lower 40s for most. Tonight will be another chilly
night with inland rural areas likely seeing another hard freeze with
lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Clouds should be able to clear
tonight, and with light winds, radiational cooling set up. Closer to
the coast, lows will be in the lower to mid 30s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures return to near seasonal averages
during the day Thursday with a steady moderating trend in
temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue
late this week into next weekend outside of a minimal chance of
showers Friday night.

12z/18 ensembles continue to depict a strong upper level ridge
that`s currently over the western CONUS translating over to the
central CONUS by late week. This will allow a steady warming trend
into the weekend, with temperatures returning to near-normal
Thursday with highs in the upper 50s inland and lower to mid 50s
near the coast. There is no signal for organized rainfall later this
week into next weekend aside from a weak upper system that brings a
chance of showers Friday night. Otherwise, dry conditions are
expected to continue.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region
early next week bringing a chance of showers and a return to
cooler temperatures.

12z/18 EPS/GEFS depict weakening of the upper ridge early next
week as a trough digs from the Great Lakes to the Northeast.
This will allow a cold front to drop across the region along
with a chance of showers. Below average temperatures are
expected to return behind the cold front early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/19 TAF period. High pressure
will remain in control of the weather pattern throughout the
period. Mid or high level clouds may move across the region
later tonight into early Thursday morning, otherwise primarily
SKC skies. Light and variable winds are expected tonight,
becoming S to SE ~5 knots Thursday afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue through Sunday with light
winds. There is a low chance of showers this weekend, though
most of the area stays dry.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Sunday.

- The next good chance of solid SCAs is Sunday night-Monday
  following a cold frontal passage.


High pressure is finally building over the waters, and as a result,
winds have diminished significantly today and are onshore at only 5-
10 kt. Seas are still 4-5 ft S of Cape Henry and will keep the SCA
going here until 4 PM. Otherwise, sub-advisory conditions will
continue through Sunday with winds aob 10 kt through Saturday night.
Southerly winds increase to ~15 kt by late Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front. That front is progged to cross the waters
Sunday night or Monday. There are still model differences with
respect to timing of the FROPA. Regardless, solid SCAs (20-25 kt w/
gusts to 30 kt) appear likely with N-NE winds behind the front given
decent CAA and a tightening pressure gradient between the front/weak
low pressure offshore and ~1032mb high pressure building over the
Great Lakes. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft through Sunday before
building to 5-8 ft by late Monday behind the front. Similarly, waves
on the Ches Bay will be 1-3 ft for the next few days before building
to 3-5 ft by Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...ERI