Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
200 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Discussion and 06z Aviation Discussion. Rain chances
have slightly decreased for this afternoon. There remains a
conditional severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening and
rain chances have increased for this coming weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing clouds today after some morning sunshine. Some
scattered showers will be possible mainly along and west of I-95.

2) Showers and storms expected on Wednesday. Some storms
could be strong to severe.

3) Mainly dry to end the week, with rain chances returning by
Saturday, though drought conditions are also likely to persist.
Temperatures hover near or just below seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing clouds today after some morning
sunshine. Some scattered showers will be possible mainly along
and west of I-95.

Weakening 1024+mb high pressure remains in place along the mid-
Atlantic coast early this morning, but will slowly move offshore
through this evening. Clouds will thicken and lower through the
day, especially inland.

Afternoon highs will be mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The high pressure should keep the majority of the CWA dry.
However, weakening upstream convection from showers and storms
that moved across the Ohio Valley earlier this morning will
cross the central Appalachians this morning, approaching western
portions of our area this afternoon. A low (20-40%) chance for
showers remains in the forecast, with the best chance along and
west of I-95. 00z/28 CAMs remain less than bullish regarding QPF
potential across our area, the vast majority of guidance
continues to show meager amounts less than 0.1" across the west,
with some scattered, light rain showers along the I-95 corridor
likely amounting up to a few hundredths at best.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and storms expected on Wednesday. Some
storms could be strong to severe.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft to begin the day on Wednesday. By later
in the day, however a pair of mid-level shortwaves approach the
area; The initial shortwave from the mid-south crosses the
region late tonight into Wednesday first from the Ohio Valley,
with the second disturbance crossing north of the local area
Wednesday night. At the surface, low pressure tracks across the
lower Ohio Valley into the interior northeast Wed morning. It is
with the passage of the warm front that the first slug of
overrunning showers will arrive Wednesday morning.

More importantly, this initial batch of light showers will
impact the amount of clearing and hence the available
instability in place across the local area when the second
disturbance crosses the area Wed afternoon. As a result, while
a convective threat exists over the local area for Wednesday
afternoon and evening, it is still very much a conditional one.
CAMs are coalescing behind clearing showers out by midday
Wednesday, with the potential for some partial clearing in the
piedmont out ahead of the cold front. Should this midday
clearing occur, the combination of modest destabilization and
30-35kt of 0-6km bulk shear would support organized storm
development. Given mid-level (h5-h7) lapse rates of 6-7 C/km,
any sustained updrafts would pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for the
region; however, if confidence in clearing increases, an
upgrade may be warranted in subsequent outlooks.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry to end the week, with rain chances
returning by Saturday, though drought conditions are also likely
to persist. Temperatures hover near or just below seasonal
averages.

Still looking like a rather blocky pattern setup aloft for the
late week into the weekend. The slow-moving low over the upper
Great Lakes into Ontario drifts across northern New England
into Quebec, as an upper low currently over the Desert Southwest
slowly traverses the southern tier of CONUS, moving from Baja
California Thu to the Southern Plains and mid-south by Friday
and Fri night. The latest ECMWF and its ensemble mean remain
far slower with this system. Meanwhile, the 00z/28 GEFS and GEPS
each are a bit more progressive, and as a result show the system
getting ultimately absorbed by the sprawling northern stream
trough then ejecting NE across the area on Saturday. In terms of
sensible wx, the current EPS/EC solution would yield some very
light rainfall amounts across the local area, while the current
GEFS/GEPS solution could portend a more substantial soaking
rainfall. It should be noted that the EPS solution does fit the
antecedent drier and more blocky pattern, but nonetheless PoPs
remain in the 40-60% range for right now and model trends will
continue to be monitored in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday ...

VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 28/06z TAF
period should persist through tonight. Winds remain light/calm
early this morning away from the immediate coast, becoming S-SW
inland (E-SE coastal terminals) 5-8 kt by afternoon. Some high
level clouds move across the area inland early this morning out
ahead of decaying convection crossing the Appalachians as of
this writing. A tempo group for some patchy ground fog has been
maintained in the typical locations along the coast (PHF/ECG) as
we approach sunrise. Otherwise, clouds gradually thicken and
lower through the afternoon, but remain VFR. As the previously
referenced decaying convection pushes east, there is a chance of
light rain showers by late this morning into this
afternoon/evening, but the highest chances are mainly west of
the TAF sites.

Outlook: There is a better chance of more widespread showers
Wednesday morning, followed by additional showers and possibly
some embedded thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Flight
restrictions (CIGs/VSBY) are likely Wednesday into Wednesday
night. VFR conditions return Thursday into Friday. Another storm
system approaches the area on Saturday, bringing potential for
additional flight restrictions Saturday into Sat night.

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory (SCA) headlines remain in effect for the
mouth of the Bay/Ocean, but have been discontinued elsewhere.

- Nuisance-type tidal flooding is possible Wednesday night for
the upper Bay.

Surface high pressure has started to settle into the local waters
this afternoon, with winds decreasing to ~10 kt or less for most of
the region, with somewhat higher winds of 15-20kt confined to the
Ocean offshore of far SE VA and NE NC. SCAs have been cancelled for
all zones minus the Ocean (mainly for seas at or above 5 ft), and
for the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay where waves will linger around 4
ft tonight. Seas tonight will be highest well offshore (6-8 ft)
and across the nearshore NC waters (5-7 ft). The high becomes
centered farther offshore Tuesday, as the next fast moving low
pressure system tracks well to our NW across Canada. Winds
become E to SE but remain fairly light on Tuesday, with some
onshore/Bay/river breeze enhancement late Tue aftn/evening. Seas
will generally remain ~5 ft Tuesday despite the minimal winds.
A stronger frontal boundary approaches from the W on Wednesday,
bringing a period with elevated S-SE winds, but for the most
part, this looks to stay just below SCA thresholds. Some
convective enhancement is possible Wed aftn/evening that could
bring locally higher wind gusts. The front moves through late
Wed night/early Thursday, and a surge for NW winds of 20-25 kt
is expected, so SCA headlines will likely be needed for most, if
not the entire marine area.

Coastal Flooding...Predominant ebb currents led to lower than
expected water levels over the past 1-2 days in the lower Ches
Bay/tidal rivers despite a good surge of onshore/NE flow. No
additional statements will be needed. With elevated seas into
midweek, and a modest increase in southerly flow Wed, some minor to
nuisance tidal flooding will be possible across the upper Bay from
Lewisetta to the Bayside of the MD eastern shore with the high tide
cycle Wed evening/Wed night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory (SCA) headlines remain in effect for the
mouth of the Bay/Ocean, but have been discontinued elsewhere.

- Nuisance-type tidal flooding is possible Wednesday night for
the upper Bay.

Surface high pressure has started to settle into the local waters
this afternoon, with winds decreasing to ~10 kt or less for most of
the region, with somewhat higher winds of 15-20kt confined to the
Ocean offshore of far SE VA and NE NC. SCAs have been cancelled for
all zones minus the Ocean (mainly for seas at or above 5 ft), and
for the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay where waves will linger around 4
ft tonight. Seas tonight will be highest well offshore (6-8 ft)
and across the nearshore NC waters (5-7 ft). The high becomes
centered farther offshore Tuesday, as the next fast moving low
pressure system tracks well to our NW across Canada. Winds
become E to SE but remain fairly light on Tuesday, with some
onshore/Bay/river breeze enhancement late Tue aftn/evening. Seas
will generally remain ~5 ft Tuesday despite the minimal winds.
A stronger frontal boundary approaches from the W on Wednesday,
bringing a period with elevated S-SE winds, but for the most
part, this looks to stay just below SCA thresholds. Some
convective enhancement is possible Wed aftn/evening that could
bring locally higher wind gusts. The front moves through late
Wed night/early Thursday, and a surge for NW winds of 20-25 kt
is expected, so SCA headlines will likely be needed for most, if
not the entire marine area.

Coastal Flooding...Predominant ebb currents led to lower than
expected water levels over the past 1-2 days in the lower Ches
Bay/tidal rivers despite a good surge of onshore/NE flow. No
additional statements will be needed. With elevated seas into
midweek, and a modest increase in southerly flow Wed, some minor to
nuisance tidal flooding will be possible across the upper Bay from
Lewisetta to the Bayside of the MD eastern shore with the high tide
cycle Wed evening/Wed night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...LKB