Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

299
FXUS61 KAKQ 171903
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
303 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion. No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening north of
Richmond and over the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore.

2) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures
continuing through Wednesday.

3) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for
the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the
Memorial Day Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening
north of Richmond and over the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore.

Afternoon wx analysis shows a building upper ridge over the eastern
CONUS with surface high pressure centered offshore. Temps have risen
into the mid 80s-lower 90s. Despite the building upper heights, a
remnant MCV tracking through NW VA will track along our northern CWA
border from now through this evening. With the hot and slightly
unstable airmass (thanks to dew pts only in the 50s), isolated tstms
cannot be ruled out this evening from the central VA Piedmont to the
Northern Neck/MD Eastern Shore. A few of the CAMs (including the
RRFS this morning`s HRRR runs) show a couple of storms developing
across far northern portions of our area. However, given the
previously referenced building heights and modest instability (~500
J/kg of MLCAPE), the atmosphere may very well remain capped. Have
maintained slight chance to low chance (20-30%) PoPs over the
northern third of the area. Any showers or storms should quickly
dissipate by 9-10 PM, allowing for a clearing and mild to warm
evening and overnight. Lows mainly in the 60s to near 70 degrees
along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal
temperatures continuing through Wednesday.

Summer-like heat makes its presence felt across the region for much
of the first half of the upcoming week. Building ridging and minimal
low-level moisture should lock in a hot and dry first half of the
week. Widespread mid 90s are expected inland each day, with lower
90s closer to the immediate coast due to H85 temps maxing out
between 18-20 deg C, good mixing, and continued low-level SSW flow.
Temps will be similar each day, with Wednesday perhaps being a
degree or two warmer. Forecast confidence in temperatures from Mon-
Wed remains high. As noted in the first point above, the strong
mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early
morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the
upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to
actual air temps. Dry wx persists through at least Wed AM. However,
upper heights begin to fall during the day Wednesday as a cold front
slowly approaches to our NW. Tstms will develop to our northwest
during the afternoon and may move into the Piedmont/Northern Neck/MD
Eastern Shore by the evening. It remains somewhat uncertain how far
SE convection makes it Wed evening before some degree of diurnal
weakening occurs. This will depend on the progression of the cold
front. However, at this time, it appears that convection most likely
stays north and west of the RIC Metro Wed evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks
to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in
temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend.

A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into
eastern Canada from Wednesday-Thursday. This will allow the ridge to
become suppressed to our SE, while also allowing cool high pressure
to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. While there remain
model differences, the above mentioned cold front is progged to
cross the area on Thursday. The front lingers across the area on
Friday, and may move back north of the area late Friday-Friday
night. With the front moving south of the area on Thursday, expect a
cooler, cloudy day with rain (can`t completely rule out a tstm
across extreme SE portions of the area depending on the speed of the
front). Periods of rain remain possible Thursday night and Friday
with the front nearby. Temps may struggle to get out of the lower
60s on Thursday and Friday (especially N/NE). Isolated to scattered
showers and a few storms (along with warmer temps) are possible
Memorial Day weekend with the front moving back to the north. As
previously mentioned, the temperature forecast on Friday and
especially Saturday is highly uncertain and depends on the exact
position of the front. In fact, model solutions vary between the 60s
and 80s for Saturday! As for precipitation amounts, ensemble
(EPS/GEPS/GEFS) probs for at least 0.5" of 48 hour total rainfall
for Wed night-Fri Night are around or just above 50% across the
entire CWA. However, still am not as optimistic as ensemble/NBM
guidance given a potentially unfavorable FROPA timing for convection
(Wednesday`s convection may be focused to our north and Thursday`s
may be suppressed to our south). Also, some of our recent rain
events have underperformed with respect to Day 3-5 model/ensemble
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions currently prevail over the area with FEW-SCT
cumulus and SW winds of 5-10 kt. Prevailing dry/VFR conditions
will continue through the 18z/17 TAF period. The only exception
to this is a ~20% chc of a tstm at SBY between 22-03z this
evening. However, confidence remains much too low to mention in
the TAF. Mainly clear tonight-Mon outside of high clouds and
FEW-SCT afternoon cumulus.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected through midweek, as high pressure
remains in control. South/southwest winds each afternoon may
gust to 15-20kt as high pressure remains nearly stationary off
the coast. Next chance of rain not expected until late Wed or
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local
  waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly
  winds.

The latest wx analysis shows expansive high pressure offshore and to
the southeast. Sub-SCA conditions will likely continue through at
least mid-week as the Bermuda high settles into place. Light winds
out of the southwest are observed today between 5-10 kt. Waves are
measured to be ~1 ft in the Ches. Bay and seas of 2-3 ft in the
coastal waters. Winds will remain similar through the rest of the
day and into Monday afternoon. SSW winds will then increase slightly
to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt Monday afternoon in the Ches. Bay and
coastal waters, but should stay below SCA criteria. A similar story
will be seen Tuesday afternoon as winds approach marginal SCA
conditions with SSW becoming 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the
Ches. Bay and 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the coastal waters
north of the VA/NC state border. Confidence is low in needing SCAs
as local probs are still quite low. The next cold front looks to
cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE
winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even
behind the front, only brief marginal SCA conditions are possible
and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

Record High Temps for 5/17 - 5/20

                 Record     Record     Record     Record
                High/Year  High/Year  High/Year  High/Year
Location          5/17       5/18        5/19       5/20
--------          ----      -----      ------     ------
Richmond        94 (1974)  95 (1962)  97 (1962)  97 (2022)
Norfolk         94 (2017)  95 (1877)  96 (1880)  98 (1996)
Salisbury       91 (2017)  96 (1911)  97 (2011)  98 (1911)
Eliz. City      95 (1941)  93 (1987)  95 (1996)  98 (1996)


Record High Min Temps for 5/17 - 5/20

                 Record     Record     Record     Record
                  High       High       High       High
                Min T/Year Min T/Year  Min T/Year Min T/Year
Location          5/17       5/18        5/19       5/20
--------          ----      -----      ------     ------
Richmond        69 (1990)  72 (2015)  71 (1997)  71 (2018)
Norfolk         72 (2018)  75 (1995)  72 (2017)  73 (1996)
Salisbury       69 (1974)  71 (1953)  70 (1929)  70 (2018)
Eliz. City      70 (2018)  73 (1995)  72 (2018)  73 (2018)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...KMC
CLIMATE...MAM