Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

110
FXUS61 KAKQ 081043
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
643 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler today and Tuesday behind a backdoor cold front with
onshore flow.

2) Above normal temperatures return mid to late week along with the
chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler today and Tuesday behind a backdoor cold
front with onshore flow.

A backdoor front is dropping south and west early this morning.
A few lingering showers continue ahead of the boundary near the
VA/NC border but these should come to an end over the next hour
or two as drier air filters into the area. High pressure over
New England drops south today, allowing NE winds to increase,
especially near the coast where winds could gust to 20-25 mph
through the afternoon. Onshore flow will result in cooler
temperatures today for most of the area with coastal locations
well below seasonal norms. Ocean City and vicinity may not rise
out of the upper 60s during the day with mid and upper 70s for
highs for the eastern third of the CWA. Toward the 95 corridor,
high temps will top out in the low to mid 80s with the Piedmont
in the mid to upper 80s. Dew points will be in the 50s to low
60s, resulting in a rather comfortable afternoon by June
standards. Winds calm down this evening with overnight lows
mainly in the 50s with continued low humidity.

High pressure translates slowly offshore on Tuesday, allowing winds
to become SE by the afternoon and temperatures to moderate a few
degrees. Highs will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s inland with
lower 80s near the coast.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures return mid to late week
along with the chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms.

Surface high pressure anchors offshore as an upper ridge builds
across the Southeast by mid to late week. The upper ridge will be
centered south of the local area with stronger flow aloft impinging
on the Mid-Atlantic, allowing for the potential for upper level
disturbances to traverse the region. Temperatures rebound into the
low 90s on Wednesday with a chance for afternoon/evening showers and
storms, mainly focused across the western half of the area. The
upper ridge amplifies to our south Thursday and Friday with modestly
rising heights aloft. High temperatures potentially rise into the
mid and upper 90s each afternoon but cloud cover and at least a
chance for showers and storms lend some uncertainty to the
temperature forecast. Latest guidance shows the weekend remaining
warm but not quite as hot as Thursday and Friday with continued
chances for diurnal showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z/08 TAF period. A weak
cold front is dropping south across the terminals this morning.
Winds are NE 10-15 kt with gusts ~20 kt, becoming ENE with
gusts 20-25 kt by mid morning through the afternoon. Winds fall
back into the 5-10 kt range this evening with mostly clear
skies.

Outlook...High pressure builds across New England in the wake
of the cold front Tuesday with VFR conditions expected. High
pressure shifts offshore Wednesday/Thursday with a chance of
mainly diurnal showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been expanded to include all local waters
  due to elevated NE winds, waves, and seas today.

- A period of elevated southerly flow is possible from late
  Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisory
  conditions are possible, particularly across the coastal
  waters.

- There is a high risk for rip currents across the southern
  beaches and a moderate risk across the northern beaches today.

Latest surface analysis depicted a backdoor cold front continuing to
push south across the local waters. This front will continue to push
south today while high pressure builds in from the north. CAA ramps
up behind the front with NE winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts
up to 25 kt. Latest CAMs have trended higher with winds behind the
front and show two separate surges. The first surge is early this
morning with a lull in the winds from mid morning into early
afternoon before the second surge arrives by late afternoon.
Additionally, local wind probs have increased to above 50% probs for
18 kt sustained winds across the middle Ches Bay this morning with
around 50% probs for the second surge this afternoon. As such,
confidence has increased enough to expand the SCAs to include all
local waters. While conditions will be more marginal across the
upper rivers and Currituck Sound, enough uncertainty exists to err
on the side of caution. Have also expanded SCAs to include the Lower
MD coastal waters due to the potential for 4-5 ft seas. In fact,
SCAs for all of the coastal waters are driven more by 4-5 ft seas
than winds (although gusts to 25 kt are still possible). Will note
that seas may be too low across the NC coastal waters with 5-6 ft
seas possible if winds trend a bit stronger. Winds become E 10-15 kt
this evening, becoming light (5-10 kt) overnight as high pressure
builds into the area.

High pressure moves offshore Tue evening into Tue night. Winds
become SE 15-20 kt late Tue afternoon before becoming S Tue night
behind the high. S winds increase to 15-25 kt across the coastal
waters late Wed into Wed night before diminishing late Wed night
into Thu. Uncertainty remains moderate regarding whether or not SCA
criteria will be reached across the Ches Bay. However, confidence is
increasing in SCA conditions across the coastal waters with this
surge due to a combination of elevated winds and seas building to 4-
6 ft. Generally benign marine conditions (outside of any convection)
are likely from Thu into next weekend.

Given the increasing NE winds today and building seas, there
is a high risk for rip currents across the southern beaches and
a moderate risk across the northern beaches. The rip current
risk is moderate across all area beaches on Tue.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>637-639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...RMM