Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

938
FXUS61 KAKQ 121027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
627 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussions.

No significant forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry today outside of localized isolated rain chances
near the coast, slightly lower humidity.

2) Isolated-scattered showers/storms return later Thursday into
Thursday night, with the highest chances expected Friday
afternoon-Friday night with a cold front.

3) Mainly dry and slightly less humid Saturday, seasonable
Sunday with a few afternoon showers/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry today outside of localized isolated rain
chances near the coast, slightly lower humidity.

Early morning weather analysis indicates WNW flow aloft with a
subtle shortwave tracking across the region. At the surface, a
weak trough is pushing to the coast and will move offshore
through sunrise. There is no instability in place, with dew pts
fairly comfortable by August standards (mostly in the 60s), so
nothing more than a few sprinkles or light rain showers are
expected through the morning hours. For today, overall the
models continue to show the local area in a large scale
subsidence zone as the shortwave moves offshore and low level
flow remains mostly from the NW. Will have a few isolated spots
near the coast with PoPs ~15% this aftn as some of the CAMs hint
at a few showers potentially developing with some low level
convergence/sea-Bay breeze influences. However, most areas, even
at the coast will be dry and the CWA is not in any Day 1 SVR or
ERO risk. High temperatures will be close to normal, generally
in the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s (warmest across interior
southern VA and NE NC). Dew pts will not be too bad, mainly
between 65-70, with locally high values along the immediate
coast. Therefore, peak heat indices will mostly only be in the
low-mid 90s. Another fast moving shortwave dives E-SE in the
flow aloft tonight, and could set off a few isolated showers,
mainly across the far north and eastern shore. Lows tonight
mostly in the lower 70s with a few pockets of upper 60s possible
in the interior rural areas.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated-scattered showers/storms return later
Thursday into Thursday night, with the highest chances expected
Friday afternoon-Friday night with a cold front.

NW flow aloft continues Thu-Fri, with daily chances for
showers/storms returning Thursday as the airmass gradually turns
more humid once again with dew pts in the 70s. Still not a lot
of focus for storms Thursday, so PoPs will remain capped at
20-40%. SVR Weather is not anticipated as shear remains rather
weak so any storms should be disorganized. Highs Thursday trend
back into the lower 90s for most, with heat indices mostly back
into the upper 90s to lower 100s (approaching 105 along the
Albemarle sound). WPC has a Marginal Day 2 ERO risk across much
of the area as PWATs increase back to ~2.00". On Friday, the
front to the north is forecast to finally drop south into the
area as the flow aloft further amplifies in response to a strong
ridge aloft across the lower MS Valley and a sharper trough
over New England and eastern Canada. Instability ahead of the
front may be limited on Friday, especially for NE portions of
the FA, so even with decent shear, the SVR threat is uncertain
and at this time, SPC does not even have the region in a
Marginal SVR risk. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible given
highs PWATs but storms should be moving so unless the front
stalls, a widespread heavy rain event is currently not expected
(but with localized flooding possible). Temperatures Friday
could see a large gradient, with 80s to north and low-mid 90s
with heat indices 100-105 possible in NE NC.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry and slightly less humid Saturday, a
few showers and storms possible Sunday.

Saturday looks mostly dry and fairly pleasant with highs in the
80s, though more clouds and an isolated showers/storm will be
possible in NE NC. The upper ridge starts to build back into the
region Sat night/Sunday, and some of the models even depict
showers Sat night. The NBM keeps that dry for now, but will have
a few showers/storms in the forecast for Sunday, along with
highs back around 90.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 625 AM EDT Wednesday...

Generally VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/12 TAF period.
Winds are shifting to the NW at 5-10kt. An isolated shower is
possible at SBY early, but with no flight restrictions.
Otherwise, mainly dry today with NW winds 5-10 kt, shifting to
the E-NE along the coast by early aftn. An isolated SHRA/TSRA
possible at coastal terminals this aftn, but chances are too low
for even a PROB30 group.

Outlook: Expect predominate VFR conditions prevail through Thu.
However, daily low-end chances for isolated to scattered showers
returns Thu. A higher chance develops Friday aftn/evening as a
front pushes though. Mainly VFR with N-NE winds Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through most of
the week.

Morning weather analysis shows high pressure continuing to sit south
of the area stretching across Florida, with a weak surface low over
northeastern Canada. The pressure gradient from these two systems
continues to remain weak but just strong enough to keep the winds
out of the W around 5-10kt. Seas this morning are around 1-2ft
across the bay and the nearshore ocean waters. While across the 20-
60NM zone seas are around 2-3ft. Through the morning and into the
afternoon of today, winds will shift out of the WNW and remain
around 10 kt with gusts nearing 15kt before the late afternoon when
winds become light and variable due to the influence of the sea-
breeze. Seas will remain quite benign and not change much through
the day and stay around 1-2ft in the bay and nearshore waters and 2-
3 ft across the 20-60NM zones. In terms of storm chances for this
afternoon, models have backed off substantially and expecting mainly
dry conditions. Will note that a sea or bay breeze storm cannot be
ruled out but confidence is low at this time. Otherwise, benign
marine conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the
week.

By late Friday, a cold front will gradually approach and shift winds
to the N-NE. Models have slightly increased come into better
agreement and are hinting on wind gusts potentially approaching 20
kt. As of this  forecast update the best day for potential elevated
marine conditions look to be Saturday. In addition, with N-NE winds
it would not be surprising if seas potentially rise to 5ft near
shore. However, confidence is low at this time.

The Rip Risk through Thursday is low at all beaches. Will note with
with winds shifting out of the N-NE late this Friday and into the
weekend it would not be surprising to see a potential in elevated Rip
Risks this weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/RMM
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...HET/NB