Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

506
FXUS61 KAKQ 240538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
138 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the public forecast. Bumped up clouds and
lowered temperatures slightly tonight through Thursday.
Confidence is increasing in dry/milder weather late this weekend
into early next week.

No major changes to the tides and marine forecast. Coastal
Flood headlines remain unchanged as moderate to locally major
flooding is expected with the next high tide cycles. In
addition, Gale conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Overcast, breezy, and unsettled conditions continue this evening
into Thursday.

2) Drier and warmer conditions return Friday into the weekend.
Remaining breezy into the weekend along the immediate coast.

3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal
flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely
by this afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds.
Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles given
the persistent northeast winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Overcast, breezy, and unsettled conditions continue
this evening into Thursday.

This afternoon, latest analysis shows a classic cold air
damming/wedge set up over the region. Strong, 1040+ mb high pressure
is currently centered over eastern Canada into the New England
states and is ridging southward. Meanwhile, coastal low pressure
(currently ~1012 mb) is currently taking shape well offshore. The
resulting tightening pressure gradient between the two features is
driving strong N/NE flow across the region. Latest radar and surface
observations show widespread drizzle and rain showers across the
local area and overcast skies. Temperatures range from the mid to
upper 50s across western portions of the forecast area, to the upper
60s to lower 70s across the southeast. Wind gusts along the
immediate coast have been gusting to 35 to 45 mph this afternoon,
and a few localized gusts of 50 mph are possible later this evening
into tonight. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the coastal
counties through Thursday. Rain slowly diminishes in coverage this
evening and transitions to light showers/drizzle/mist. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s NW/W to
the lower to mid 60s SE.

The coastal low will slowly begin to make its trek E/NE during the
day on Thursday allowing for high pressure to begin to build back
into the area. The pressure gradient will remain tight along the
coast, allowing for wind gusts of 40 to 45+ mph to continue. The
best rain chances tomorrow will be across far E and SE portions of
the forecast area as moisture wrap around the coastal low.
Otherwise, overcast skies, cool temperatures, and areas of
drizzle/mist will continue as we remain in the wedge. The wedge
begins to weaken later in the day on Thursday, and a few peaks of
sunshine will be possible across far N/NW portions of the area. High
temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower to mid 60s NW to
the lower 70s SE. Low temperatures Thursday night drop back into the
upper 40s to lower 50s for many areas west of I-95 as we begin to
see some clearing work into the area. Closer to the coast, lows
range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and warmer conditions return Friday into the
weekend. Remaining breezy into the weekend along the immediate coast.

Afternoon models still show some disagreement in regards to the
timing and future track of the coastal low Friday into the
weekend. The ECMWF remains slower with the low and ultimately
tracks it closer to the coast, eventually stalling the low off
the NJ coast Saturday night into Sunday. The GFS is faster and
further east with the low track, eventually stalling the low
near Cape Cod on Sunday. The ECMWF solution would allow for
continued rain chances across NE portions of the area into the
weekend. The ECMWF is the outlier amongst the model guidance
right now. For now, the NBM solution is closer to the GFS which
keeps the low east and is also faster. This allows for a mainly
sunny and dry weekend with temperatures rebounding back into the
70s. It will still remain breezy along the immediate coast at
least into Saturday, before gradually diminishing Saturday night
into Sunday. High pressure builds into the area early next week
allowing for dry conditions and mild temperatures.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal
flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely
by this afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds.
Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles given
the persistent northeast winds.

Northeast winds continue to persist 25-30 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt
this afternoon. These wind are likely to persist through Thursday
before gradually becoming N then NNW by Friday and Saturday while
diminishing slightly (especially across the bay and rivers). Tidal
anomalies continue to remain ~2.5 ft above normal across the middle
and lower bay and will continue to rise through Thursday.
(especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast).
Widespread moderate to major flooding is expected for the 3 high
tide cycles from this evening through the Thursday evening/night
high tide. Some sites (especially Jamestown/Lynnhaven/Smithfield)
could crest around 0.5 ft above major flood stage. Coastal Flood
Warnings remain in effect for nearly the entire tidal area through
Thursday night/Friday morning. There continues to remain some
uncertainty with respect to the forecast on Friday and Saturday as
winds become N-NNW and there is a weak signal of some possible
ebbing. ETSS still shows moderate flooding in the lower bay and
tidal rivers through Friday night`s high tide (and even moderate at
Jamestown on Saturday) despite the wind direction becoming less
favorable for tidal flooding. In past events where the wind has
turned from the NE to NNW, water levels have tended to fall quicker
across the lower bay and York/James. With this said still went below
 ETSS for the lower bay starting Friday but will continue to keep a
close eye on the forecast. On the other hand, ETSS shows steady or
slowly rising water levels across the upper bay/bay side of the MD
Eastern Shore with the diminishing winds Fri/Sat. Again, there
continues to remain some uncertainity here but there is some
potential that moderate to locally major tidal flooding continues
farther north through Friday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Conditions will remain rather persistent at the terminals
through the TAF period as low pressure develops offshore
keeping gusty NE winds and BKN-OVC skies around. The further N/W
terminals are seeing VFR CIGs, with MVFR to the SE. RIC and SBY
are currently VFR, but expect periods of MVFR CIGs to be
possible overnight into the morning hours. DZ/-SHRA will
continue across the SE (including ORF and ECG) through ~10Z.
Hi-res guidance shows a break in the DZ until another band
potentially moves ashore to ORF/ECG for a few hours after ~17Z.
If there is precipitation today, expect some VIS reductions as
well. Strong NE winds will continue tonight and Thursday with
gusts to 30+ kt likely (lower away from the coast, including
RIC).

Outlook: At least intermittent degraded flight conditions are
likely as the unsettled weather pattern persists. Coastal
terminals will also have elevated NE winds for an extended
period, with winds remaining elevated and shifting to the N-NW
into the weekend. CIGs along the coast should gradually improve
late week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 342 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Gale force wind gusts are likely to continue through much of the
week and possibly into the weekend for the offshore waters. Gale
Warnings remain in effect for all marine zones except the upper
rivers.

- A short period of sustained gale force winds is possible late
today-tonight across the lower bay and nearshore coastal waters. The
offshore waters may see a longer period of sustained gale force
winds (potentially through Thursday/Thursday night).

- Seas build to 10-15+ feet, leading to dangerous marine conditions.

Early afternoon weather analysis shows a 1010mb low off the NC
coast, with a strong 1038mb high pressure over the US/Canadian
border. The pressure gradient from these two systems have tighten
allowing for NNE winds to increase deteriorating marine conditions.
Gale conditions are prevailing with  winds around 25-30kt with gusts
between 35-40kt across the bay, lower James, sound, and coastal
waters. While across the upper tidal rivers strong SCA conditions
are prevailing. Seas continue to remain dangerous with waves around
5-7ft in the bay and 10-15+ft across the coastal waters. The
strongest winds are likely to impact the local waters tonight into
Thursday as 925mb winds increase to 40-45kt and the stronger CAA
arrives. The unstable marine boundary layer and warmer water temps
(mid to upper 70s), wind guts at that level are likely to mix down
to the surface. This should allow for a period of sustained gale
force winds with gusts to 45 kt across the ocean and lower bay from
this evening-Thursday. Gale warnings run through Thursday evening
for the upper bay, part of Thu night for the lower bay/lower James,
Friday morning for the ocean, and Friday afternoon for the offshore
(20-60nm) coastal waters. Thursday night the high will likely weaken
allowing winds to diminish 20-25 kt on the bay/Lower James and
remain in that range on Friday. The low pressure is forecasted to
rapidly deepen offshore Friday into Saturday as it tracks to the
NNE. Gale force gusts are still likely to continue across the
nearshore coastal waters through Friday morning (potentially
longer...but not confident enough to extend gale headlines attm) as
the pressure gradient remains tight. The coastal waters (20-60NM)
are likely to continue to see Gale gusts through Friday night. The
wind direction will gradually become NNW by Sat. There is still some
disagreement in the guidance with respect to the track of the low
Fri/Sat, so will continue to monitor. Winds should finally diminish
Sunday and fall below SCA thresholds by Monday.

Dangerous surfing conditions will continue through Thursday with the
prolonged onshore flow, and remain high into the weekend due to
elevated seas even as the winds become NNW. Localized beach/dune
erosion is possible as well. High Surf Advisories remain in effect
through early Thursday evening for now.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>025.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for MDZ025.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025.
NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for NCZ102.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for NCZ102.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ017-102.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ081>084-089-
     090-097>100-518-520-523>525-528>531.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for VAZ098>100.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098>100-530-
     531.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078-085-
     086-521-522.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-631-633-
     639.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ654-656-658.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ680-682-684.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ686.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ688.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/HET/JKP
AVIATION...JKP/RHR
MARINE...ERI/HET