Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

324
FXUS61 KRNK 142023
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
425 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid and upper level low pressure system across the
Ohio Valley will weaken further and drift northeast into the
mid-Atlantic today. Showers/storms will again be possible,
mainly for the Piedmont areas, with a marginal risk for severe
storms. The storm system will shift away from our region on
Thursday. A cold front will move through our area on Saturday
and should shift southeast of the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Numerous showers and storms may produce an isolated flooding
threat through sunset, along with a few strong cells, mainly SE.

The negatively tilted mid level shortwave trough is now pivoting NE
through the forecast area, amidst above normal PW and marginal
SBCAPE, although the CAPE growth has been slowed by this morning`s
extensive fog/stratus and now by numerous showers and isolated
storms. One strong to severe cell is tracking NE along the CAPE
gradient over our SE, and additional upscale growth is possible
within the developing spiral convective bands to its WSW, although
the effective bulk shear will remain marginal through the afternoon.
Will maintain high pops through sunset, with the elevated moisture,
slow storm motion, wet ground (NASA SPoRT 0-10 cm soil moisture in
the 90th percentile) and dynamic contribution to lift helping to
fuel the threat of localized flooding, which prompted the flood
watch in effect for N and central sections, mainly the eastern
higher terrain, through mid evening, locations that have received
broadly 2-5" of rain in the last 48 hours, with some road closures
and other impacts already. As the trough lifts to our NE this
evening with gradually rising heights and waning (but still near or
just above normal) PW, shower chances should decrease from SW to NE
this evening through tonight, although we may see redevelopment of
scattered showers over our far W toward morning as elevated moist
isentropic upglide at 300K-310K spreads in from the WSW late. We
should also see areas of fog develop overnight as the mid-upper
level clouds move out with a wet ground and light surface winds.
Lows should be in the 50s to lower 60s. -gih

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Not as unsettled as previous days, but still expect a chance of
showers and storms in the morning across the SW, then additional
scattered convection in the afternoon/early evening.

2) There is a Marginal Risk of severe convection Thursday afternoon
and evening, especially across the Blue Ridge and into the Foothills
and Piedmont.

The mid level shortwave trough will continue to lift well to our NE
Thu, as ridging aloft builds from the Gulf up through the Mid South
and S Appalachians. In addition to the fog/stratus areawide, the
risk of showers and a few storms will extend into at least mid
morning across our SW, as the elevated warm frontal zone and its
accompanying moist upglide aloft lifts NE through the area. Then, by
the early-mid afternoon, with the morning stratus likely having
largely burned off amidst a relative lull in pops, we should get
sufficient heating for moderate SBCAPE, as bulk shear increases to
30-40 kts, and a few strong to severe storms will remain possible.
There are indications that we may have a bit of a cap around 700 mb,
though, so despite PW rebounding a bit to just above normal,
convective coverage in the afternoon may be somewhat limited. Will
carry mainly chance pops, but with a short period of low-end likely
in the NW. Highs in the 80s with 70s higher elevations. The
shower/storm risk should wane with loss of heating Thu night,
however residual cloudiness and/or remnant showers from Midwest
convection on Thu may slip into our NW sections overnight, and will
maintain a chance of showers there late. Lows in the 60s. -gih

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 425 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Shower/storm chances will peak Fri into early Sat, then decrease
for late Sat through Tue before returning Wed.

2) Hot weather expected through the weekend, with some relief
expected by Mon through mid week.

Mid level ridging will continue to build from the Gulf NE through
the CWA early Fri, although this will flatten out and shift SE as a
deep polar low tracks E over the N Great Lakes through Fri night.
The accelerating mid level flow to 45-60 kt will become gently
cyclonic over our region, with DPVA spreading into the central
Appalachians and WAA ahead of a cold front, within a stream of above-
normal PW. The highest shower/storm chances will be focused from Fri
afternoon through at least the first part of Sat, with strong upper
divergence spreading through the region and at least marginal CAPE
expected. A few strong storms are possible late Fri into Fri night
or early Sat, and while the expected timing of the better moisture
and dynamic forcing for ascent is not diurnally favorable for strong
to severe storms, we will still need to monitor given the robust mid
level flow. As the polar low tracks through the St Lawrence Valley,
the prefrontal moisture plume should shift to our SE Sat afternoon
with cold front passage late Sat or Sat evening. Pops should then be
generally near climatology or lower through Mon and perhaps Tue
given NW steering flow and dry air in place, although clouds will
likely increase by Mon night/Tue as a deep low moving onto the W
Coast this weekend settles into the W CONUS before shifting E into
the Plains by Tue night/Wed. The downstream ridging over our area
should dominate early next week, but this too will start to shift E
and break down as deep troughing develops over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley by late Wed. As such, scattered to numerous showers and
storms should start to return by Wed.

Temperatures will remain well above normal Fri through Sun, with
highs well into the 80s except 70s mountains. Readings should slip
back to 70s to low 80s, with perhaps upper 60s higher peaks, for
Mon through Wed. -gih

&&

.AVIATION /18z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 252 PM EDT Wednesday...

With the upper trough axis moving east, most of the TAF sites have
returned to high-MVFR or VFR, with the exception of RNK, LYH, and DAN
where rain and some embedded tstms continue.  Conditions will
further improvement later this afternoon as the convection moves
east, and by 23Z any lingering sub-VFR conditions should be limited
to MVFR. Flight conditions at all TAF sites are expected to
deteriorate by midnight as the low levels becoming saturated with
night cooling, resulting in IFR or worse conditions developing
across the forecast area.  Look for gradually improving flt
conditions after daybreak Thursday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Beginning Thursday morning, rain chances remain lower through midday
Saturday, though showers/storms will be possible each day due to
daytime heating. Any impact from a storm would lower flight
conditions temporarily, but generally VFR conditions will be
expected at all terminals. By Saturday, a cold front moves into the
area, with the best rain chances expected along/west of the Blue
Ridge. The front moves through by Sunday, with quieter conditions
expected across the area.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 945 AM EDT Monday...

The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in
Blacksburg, VA is continuing to conduct a required, scheduled
update to their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
(AWIPS) that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025, lasting through
approximately Thursday, May 15, 2025.

During the time of the update, forecast operations will be
conducted by our service back-up office in Raleigh, NC to
minimize any potential interruption to services. No impacts to
our core services of forecast products and weather watches,
warnings and advisories are expected during this period.

However, limited impacts will occur to the following services:

NOAA Weather Transmitters: All NOAA Weather Radio Transmitters
maintained by NWS Blacksburg will be off the air through the
time of the update.

This includes the following transmitters in North Carolina,
Virginia, and West Virginia:

Mount Jefferson (WNG88  162.500 MHz)
Richlands (WZ2543  162.425 MHz)
Wytheville (WZ2500  162.450 MHz)
Roanoke (WXL60  162.475 MHz)
Lynchburg (WXL92  162.550 MHz)
South Boston (KJY86  162.525 MHz)
Hinton (WXM72  162.425 MHz)

Water Level Forecasts: Water level forecast services will be
degraded due to a less frequent update cycle. Forecasts will
remain on https:/water.noaa.gov/wfo/rnk through this period.

Local graphical forecast maps that are hosted in numerous places
on www.weather.gov/rnk will not be updated.

This includes all maps on the Graphical Hazardous Weather
Outlook page (https:/www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rnk), the
majority of the graphics on the Briefing page
(https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/emer), some experimental fire
applications (https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/fire), climate graphs
for Blacksburg Forecast Area
(https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/climatePlots), and the Weather
Story (https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/weatherstory).

The forecast office in Blacksburg, VA will remain open and
staffed through the period for public and partner phone calls
and additional functions that can be completed without AWIPS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ011-014-
     017>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...None.
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ043-044-507-
     508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM... Hartfield
AVIATION...np/JCB
EQUIPMENT...AMS/JCB