Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

928
FXUS61 KRNK 201318
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
918 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary just to our north will continue to
keep us in an active weather pattern. Rain chances decrease
today as the front lifts north. A cold front approaches the
area and moves through on Monday bringing a better chance of
rain and storms. Drier air and quieter weather is expected
behind the front for mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 915 AM EDT Sunday...

No changes were made to the forecast this morning. Westerly flow
today will lead to gusty winds across the area as an upper level
shortwave pushes through the Mid-Atlantic states. This westerly
flow should prevent widespread thunderstorm coverage through the
afternoon; however, SE West Virginia may see some clusters of
storms push into the area late in the evening from the west as a
secondary upper level shortwave enters the Ohio Valley through
the afternoon and evening hours.

Previous Discussion:

Key Messages:

1) Less coverage of storms expected this afternoon and evening,
but a few stronger storms still possible.

2) Storms still capable of heavy rain, which could easily result
in localized flash flooding.

A few residual showers are ongoing this morning, but should
diminish over the next few hours as they slowly drift east.
Outside of any rain, a few areas of fog will be possible, but
slightly increased mixing tonight, along with wide cloud
coverage may inhibit any widespread fog development.

Enhanced upper flow today as ridging decreases a bit and mid
level troughing over the northeast digs southward from New
England. This should result in increased westerly flow today and
with daytime heating, should have a breezy afternoon with gusts
possibly into the 20 mph range across the mountains.

Westerly downsloping winds today may actually help to inhibit
widespread storm development, thus have kept the highest PoPs
across the mountains, with very limited chances east of the Blue
Ridge. As mixing decreases this evening, could see a slight
uptick in storm development in the western mountains coinciding
with a weak upper wave moving east from the Ohio Valley, but
decreasing daytime heating could be a limiting factor. Any
storms that do form and survive over the mountain will have the
potential of producing damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will
continue to be a threat as well, but with limited storm
coverage, flooding threat should remain very localized.

Mostly dry again tonight, but some residual showers may linger
late. Areas of fog possible again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...


Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms Monday, quieter stretch of weather
follows through midweek.

2. Cooler and cloudy conditions Tuesday.

By Monday, a 500mb trough over the eastern US pushes eastward and
towards the Atlantic, while upstream ridging strengthens over the
south central US and into the Midwest. A cold front will drop
southward through the region on Monday, bringing increased chances
for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models are
showing residual cloud cover from convection on Sunday and the
overnight into Monday morning, which could limit the amount of
daytime, and thus instability, available for convective development
Monday afternoon. The highest probabilities for strong storms at
this time look to be the southern Blue Ridge and along and south of
the VA/NC state line, where there may be more breaks in the clouds
earlier in the day. Since there has not really been any change in
the antecedent airmass for the past few days, the main threats
remain frequent lightning, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall
leading to localized flash flooding. Nearly all locations in the
forecast area have received some amount of rain in the last 72
hours, though the favored areas have been parts of the southern Blue
Ridge, the Alleghany Highlands of VA, the Mountain Empire of
southwest VA, and parts of the Piedmont and Southside, where there
are several bullseyes of 3+ inches of rain, and soil moistures are
running close to 70% to 80% of normal. Even though coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will be scattered, the stronger storms
will still be capable of producing high rainfall rates, and any
areas that see training or back building storms, especially in those
aforementioned locations that have received plenty of recent rain,
will have to be closely monitored for flash flooding.

Surface high pressure strengthens over the northern Mid Atlantic
behind the front, and will wedge southward in the area by Tuesday.
Cool, easterly flow off the Atlantic and northwesterly flow aloft
will keep temperatures on Tuesday cooler than normal. Moisture from
the Atlantic will likely lead to mostly cloudy to overcast skies,
which will also help to keep temperatures down. Look for highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 in the Piedmont and Southside Monday, in
the upper 70s to low 80s west of the Blue Ridge, with clouds and
rain holding temperatures down. Tuesday will see upper 70s to low
80s areawide, and upper 70s to mid 80s on Wednesday. Low
temperatures will be in the 60s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening
through Monday.

2. Lower probabilities for showers and storms on Tuesday.

A warm front will start to retreat northward by Sunday, as a low
pressure system tracks across the northeastern US and southern
Canada through the weekend. The cold front will dive southward into
the area by Monday, as 500mb troughing deepens over the northeastern
US and northwesterly flow aloft over the area may help to bring this
system south into the region. That being said, both Sunday and
Monday will have chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours, but higher probabilities
come Monday with the additional synoptic scale lift provided by the
cold front. For Sunday, storms look to fire over the mountains in
the west and in the Ohio Valley, then tracking south and eastward.
The timing of the frontal passage Monday could impact the coverage
of storms, but at this time, greatest probabilities are over the
southern Blue Ridge and south along the VA/NC state line. Heavy
rainfall continues to be one of the main hazards associated with any
convection for the next few days, as PWATs stay above the 90th
percentile relative to climatology, in the 1.5" to 2" range, and so
localized flash flooding remains a concern, especially over areas
that have been hit repeatedly by thunderstorm activity the past few
days. Strong gusty winds will also be a hazard, from wet
microbursts, and could down trees and powerlines.

Surface high pressure slides along the northeast following the front
for Tuesday, and easterly flow off the Atlantic into the area will
help to keep Tuesday slightly cooler, and also limit the coverage of
any showers and storms to just the western mountains. Tuesday will
feel like a refreshing day, with highs in the low to mid 80s
areawide. Sunday and Monday will be similar to recent days, hot and
humid.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Sunday...

Few areas of fog this morning, but should be limited given
residual cloud cover and light winds. VFR after any fog
dissipates.

SHRA/TSRA will again be possible this afternoon, but coverage
should be less than the past several days. Given the lower
probabilities of storms today, especially east of the mountains,
have kept the mention of thunderstorms to just BLF/LWB.

Most terminals may see an uptick in wind speeds as gusty W
winds 10-20 kts may be seen by afternoon, but diminishing again
around sunset.

OUTLOOK MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: Flight restrictions possible IVOF SHRA/TSRA...mainly
during the afternoon and evening...as well as late night/early
morning BR.

Tuesday: A cold front is expected to move through the region.
Flight restrictions remain possible IVOF any SHRA/TSRA.

Wednesday-Thursday: ISOLD SHRA/TSRA will be possible, but with
high pressure and a drier airmass, coverage will be limited. No
significant restrictions anticipated at this time.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG