Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

284
FXUS61 KRNK 251105
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
605 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system is moving across the area
this morning bringing scattered light to moderate rain showers
to most areas north of the North Carolina and Virginia border.
High pressure once again settles north of the area on Friday
leading to calm but cool weather before another system works
its way into region by Friday night. Colder air returns early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Warm and rainy Christmas morning, especially along and west
   of the Blue Ridge.

2. Well above normal temperatures persist.

3. Cold air damming builds in overnight Thursday into Friday
   morning.

An upper level ridge centered over the central Gulf Coast
states combined with a trough axis centered off the Mid-
Atlantic coast is leading to an upper level shortwave diving
southeast into the region. This upper level shortwave is
dropping into the region in the northwest flow aloft, and is
currently leading to scattered light to moderate rainfall across
mountain locations early this morning. These showers can be
expected to continue to move east throughout the remainder of
the early morning hours and into the evening. The largest
rainfall totals look to remain across regions west of the Blue
Ridge, with SE West Virginia likely seeing rainfall totals of
0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain when all is said and done.
Precipitation totals quickly drop off further east into
Virginia and North Carolina, with rainfall of around 0.05 to
0.15 inches of rainfall forecast.

While this upper level low rides over the northeast quadrant of
the aforementioned ridge, the surface high pressure also
centered along the northern Gulf coast will lead to
southwesterly winds across the area today, which will allow
temperatures to climb to well above normal values. Highs will
generally warm into the mid to upper 60s across Piedmont
locations, and upper 50s to low 60s for mountain locations.

Towards the end of Christmas day, an Arctic surface high
pressure looks to build across southeastern Canada and New
England, which will lead to cold air damming to build into the
region. Winds across the area will slowly transition to out of
the northeast by midnight on Friday leading to cool temperatures
to slide back into the region for Friday. Lows Friday morning
look to fall into the mid 30s for areas north of 460 and upper
30s to low 40s for areas south of 460.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Thursday...


Key Message:

1) Precip chances return Friday.

A fairly weak upper disturbance with little amplitude will traverse
the area for Friday. There looks to be enough moisture to warrant a
decent chance of rain mainly for the mountains during the day and
lingering into the overnight. While thermal profiles are decently
cool in the low levels, there is a fairly deep warm nose aloft but
still cannot rule out some sleet mixing in for parts of the area but
sfc temp should stay above freezing and not expecting any issues.
Expect an unseasonably warm and pleasant weekend under upper
ridging with some increased cloud cover for Sunday ahead of the next
system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Another system to bring precip chances for Monday.

A higher amplitude longwave trough should swing across the area with
an attendant sfc cold front for Sunday night into Monday. The
elongated moisture axis does look to show some depletion across the
CWA as it moves eastward so the higher pops are going to be mainly
in the mountains. Temps should be falling during the Monday
afternoon period and with subfreezing values aloft we could see a
rain to snow transition occur in the west. By the time we get into
the evening precip chances will be on the decrease when the sfc
temps make it below freezing so not expecting impacts and any snow
should be light at best. While the rest of the period should be dry
under NW flow, we will see the return of a chilly winter-like
regime.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Wednesday...

MVFR ceilings are being observed at KBLF, KBCB, and KLWB this
morning as scattered showers move through the area. Some thunder
is being observed in some cells near KLWB, but are not expected
to lead to any flight issues at this time. Ceilings will
continue to drop to MVFR or lower for all terminals, except
KDAN, through the morning. Rain with this system could be
moderate to heavy at times, especially for KLWB and KBLF, and
visibility restrictions are possible during those periods. Only
light rain is expected for KLYH and perhaps KDAN, but confidence
is lower at KDAN. The bulk of the precipitation is anticipated
between 12Z and 15Z today, but rain and low clouds will linger
longer for the SE WV terminals, and KBLF and KLWB will likely be
sub VFR through the current TAF period. Could see a return to
VFR for KLYH and KDAN by the end of the TAF period, but is
unlikely west of the Blue Ridge as MVFR to LIFR CIGs remain in
place as another system approaches the area, and cold air
wedging settles into the region.

Winds will remain northwest to westerly today, then turning more
southwest east of the Blue Ridge, and westerly in the mountains
today. Gusts up to 20 knots are possible for KBLF after 12Z,
and low level shear is likely for KLWB between 12Z and 16Z. By
the late evening hours, winds will start to slowly transition to
northeasterly as the aforementioned cold air wedging develops
across the Mid-Atlantic states. These northeast winds look to
remain light at around 5 knots or less; however, gusts up to 13
knots look possible across Piedmont terminals overnight.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

An additional system will push into the area Friday and into
Saturday, which looks to continue sub-VFR conditions with more
precipitation through the beginning of the weekend. VFR
conditions look to return briefly on Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...EB