Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

711
FXUS61 KRNK 150041
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
741 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Still monitoring cold front which is inbound from the Ohio
Valley and will cross the mountains between now and midnight.
Expect windshift to the northwest and uptick in wind speed with
its passage.

No change to the current headlines with winter weather related
advisories in effect for our western counties.

For the weekend system the operational GFS has trended snowier
across the area, especially the Piedmont, but still low
confidence on this system, as models/ensembles differ.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Arctic front pushes through tonight, rain changing to snow.

2) Strong wind gusts overnight and Thursday.

3) Bitterly cold wind chills through Friday morning.

4) Possible winter storm this weekend.

5) Cold weather to continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Arctic front pushes through tonight, rain
changing to snow.

Arctic front will cross the mountains between now and midnight,
then east across the piedmont after midnight. Winds will shift
to the northwest with its passage and speeds will increase.
There is a narrow band of precipitation associated with the
front...rain along the leading edge and snow along the back
edge. Best chance for accumulating snow will be across the
western CWA where upslope precipitation will continue through
the overnight and into the day Thursday. East of the mountains,
any snow that occurs is not expected to accumulate, with only
flurries expected Thursday.

Overall forecasted snow amounts look reasonable but wold not be
surprised that more than 6 inches falls at a few ridges like Mt
Rogers/Beech Mountain/Burkes Garden area per some of the
higher-resolution models. Wind will be picking up so blowing
snow also will be an issue with reduced visibilities. The wind
blown snow will also make it difficult to measure.

There is a large range with respect to totals, with 1-5 inches
possible in western Greenbrier, 1-2 inches along the western
slopes south into NC, except 3-6" possible above 4500 feet.
A dusting is possible as far east as the New River Valley into
the Alleghanys.

The upper trough looks deeper and lends to snow
showers/flurries lingering into Thursday, with flurries
potentially as far east as the Piedmont.

No changes to winter weather advisory but may need a Special
Weather Statement to cover the rain changing to snow and temps
falling for some of the other counties not reflected in the
Advisory.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong wind gusts overnight and Thursday.

Low level jet 34-45kts along with 6hr pressure rises of 4 to 7mb
as well as somewhat lowering inversion and strong shot of cold
advection all lead to wind advisory gusts likely in the
mountains of NC into the Blue Ridge of VA as far north as Floyd.
There are some higher peaks along the Blue Ridge further north
as well as the Alleghanys in WV/VA that could see gusts over 45
mph but just isolated spots. With that went with wind advisory
from Watauga northeast along the Blue Ridge to Floyd. Will see
strong gusts behind the arctic front initially later this
evening then off and on strong gust into Thursday morning.
Overall looks like strong pressure rises head east by midday
Thursday, but still expect blustery winds into Thu evening.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Bitterly cold wind chills through Friday
morning.

Have added the NC High Country/Grayson to the cold wx advisory
as the stronger winds will send apparent temperatures down to -5
to 14F late tonight through Friday morning. The cold wx advisory
for western Greenbrier remains as is.

Other higher locations like Burkes Garden and Mountain Lake may
see wind chills around -5F or colder as well, but most of the
rest of the mountains will be in the +5F to -4F range. -5F being
the criteria for cold weather advisories in the mountains. Wind
chills east of the mountains will be in the teens.


KEY MESSAGE 4: Possible winter storm this weekend.

Another weather system, mid-level trough, will approach the area
from the west this weekend, bringing additional cold air and
moisture. Ingredients suggests any meteor that falls will be in
the form of snow with increasing trend towards light to
potentially moderate snowfall for some areas. The trough is
expected to spawn an area of low pressure along the mid-atlantic
coast which may turn into a Nor`easter for New England. Question
is whether the initial tag-up of moisture with the cold air
produces any meaningful snowfall for our forecast area. Model
solutions are divergent with solutions ranging from a few inches
of snow across our piedmont to nothing at all, the storm
staying too far east of the area to have any impact. Regardless
of the outcome we encourage folks to closely monitor the
forecast for future updates. As previously mentioned, the
temperatures will be cold enough for snow. The uncertainty is
how much if any. Current prediction, right now, is for the
highest chance of snow to occur over central and eastern
Virginia, with a 30-50 percent chance of an inch or more of
accumulation Sunday morning. This is an ensemble probability
which has increased over the last 24 hours. Bottom line, this
storm appears stronger in some of Wednesday`s models than it did
yesterday. Because the storm`s path is uncertain, a slight
shift to the west or east could significantly increase or
decrease snowfall totals for our area.


KEY MESSAGE 5: Cold weather to continue into next week.

After the weekend system passes, a dry cold front moves through
early next week and keeps conditions cold. The 540 thickness line
remains below the Mid-Atlantic for most of the forecast period.
Gusty winds of 25-35 mph along and west of the Blue Ridge will
follow the front and bring frigid wind chills. Along and west of the
Blue Ridge, wind chill values in the single digits are possible and
below zero at higher elevations. East of the Blue Ridge, wind chill
values will likely be in the teens for a few mornings next week.
High pressure is forecast to follow the front resulting in
relatively benign weather for the rest of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sub-VFR cigs expected overnight and early Thursday from the Ohio
Valley east to the crest of the Blue Ridge. Snow showers and
flurries are expected at BLF/LWB/BCB/ROA. The precipitation may
begin as rain this evening.

East of the Blue Ridge expecting mainly VFR for LYH/DAN.

The winds will pick up behind the arctic front overnight with
gusts 20-35kts likely especially across the ROA/BCB corridor
and higher smaller airports/helipads like GEV/TNB and HLX. The
blustery winds will persist through the end of the taf period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Snow showers/flurries taper off Thu afternoon with BLF/LWB
trending toward VFR. Blustery winds likely through Thu evening.

VFR conditions are expected into Friday. Another weak system
moves into the area Friday night into Saturday, again bringing
snow chances mainly to the mountains, which would lower flight
conditions to sub-VFR. There is potential for a winter storm to
develop near the mid-atlantic coast Sunday, with opportunity
for snow areawide Sunday...conditions sub-VFR. Temperatures for
much of the period will be below normal. Monday appears VFR
except some lingering sub- VFR across BLF/LWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for VAZ015>017.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Friday
     for VAZ015.
NC...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for NCZ001-002-018.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Friday
     for NCZ001-018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for WVZ508.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday
     for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/PM/WP
AVIATION...PM