Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

032
FXUS61 KRNK 140658
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
258 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures and dry weather under high pressure is
expected through Monday afternoon. A frontal passage will bring
showers and storms Monday evening through the night. Tuesday
will be notably cooler, with gusty winds. Wednesday will be
cooler as well, but a return to near or above normal
temperatures is expected Thursday into the weekend. Otherwise,
mainly dry weather is expected through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain showers likely and thunderstorms Monday evening west of the
Blue Ridge.

2. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary hazards.

3. Warmer and breezy through the day.

Upper ridging continues to build over the southeastern US through
Monday, with increasing 500mb heights over the area. A shortwave
will pass over the area early in the morning, and could bring a few
light showers to the west, but with such a dry airmass in place,
point soundings show very dry low levels, not thinking much of this
precipitation will make it to the ground. Otherwise, most of Monday
will feature above normal temperatures and dry weather, as the local
forecast area sits in the warm sector of an occluding surface low
centered over the Great Lakes. The cold front will reach the area
late Monday evening, with showers and storms developing as early as
5PM, but more likely by 8PM. 0-6km bulk shear between 40 and 50
knots support multicell and possible supercell storm modes. The
primary threats are damaging winds and large hail, given steep
mid level lapse rates. Some uncertainty remains in how far east
the storms make it, before reaching a more unfavorable
mesoscale environment, mostly limited by instability, as the
timing of the frontal passage across the area looks to be around
or after sunset, so will start to lose some of the daytime
heating and therefore instability. The downsloping component of
the westerly flow will also help to limit the potential for
storms east of the Blue Ridge. That all being said, the most
likely area for severe thunderstorms is over southeast WV and
north of I-64 in VA, though could be as far south as the New
River Valley. The threat of storms will end for the area between
midnight and 2 AM, though upslope showers and clouds will
linger through the rest of the night over the western mountain
slopes.

Rainfall totals with this system are up to 0.80" in western
Greenbrier County WV, to 0.30" over southwest VA. Most areas east of
the Blue Ridge will receive 0.10" or less. Some isolated higher
amounts may be possible over southeast WV under heavier showers
and stronger storms, and under any training storms. There is a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding in
these areas. However, given that this area has only seen 0.5"
up to 1.0" of rain in the last seven days, thinking most of this
rainfall will be beneficial, and so confidence in any flooding
threat is low.

Forecast confidence is moderate on storm timing, but low on coverage
and strength of storms. Confidence is high in above normal
temperatures for the forecast area.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) High confidence in a very windy and chilly Tuesday through
Wednesday.

2) Cooler temperatures expected.

Tuesday morning a surface cold front will have passed through most
of if not all of the forecast area. A sharp and negatively tilted
upper trough will follow quickly on its heels, bringing some upslope
rain showers mainly to our SE WV counties through early Wednesday
morning. A little snow may mix in but no to very little accumulation
is expected. The upper low becomes more rounded and gradually lifts
out of the area during the day Wednesday, with another front
crossing the region. This will bring reinforcing cool air as high
pressure originating in northern Canada builds in from the west.
Skies should become clear through Thursday morning at least.

Deep mixing, strong pressure rises, and moderate cold air advection
will support very gusty westerly winds beginning early Tuesday into
Wednesday. Ensemble zonal wind climatological percentiles are near
or at a MAX for u wind anomalies...indicating that the ECMWF ENS and
NAEFS are forecasting an event that would fall outside the 1979-2009
climatology for this time of year. In other words, the mountains
will most likely see some gusts higher than 50 mph. MOS is also
supporting this with speeds between 20-25 kts on Tuesday and
Wednesday, which has historically been a wind headline indicator.
May need a High Wind Warning for the southern Blue Ridge and a Wind
Advisory elsewhere. After coordinating with neighboring offices,
will reevaluate the threat later today and go from there.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see temperatures in the 40s and 50s for
the mountains, and in the 60s for the piedmont. However, the wind
will make it seem much cooler. Thursday night temperatures will drop
into the 20s and 30s across the area, with winds weakening to around
5 to 10 mph or less. Thursday we should reach the low to upper 60s
across most of the area with increasing clouds late.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Moderate confidence in above normal temperatures.

2) Low to moderate confidence in precipitation chances.

Mean ensemble guidance shows upper ridging for Friday and into the
weekend, punctuated by a glancing blow from a passing northern
stream wave and the nearing of a front. The boundary and passing
upper level support may bring scattered showers to mainly areas
north of Highway 460 Saturday through early Sunday, at which time
the boundary will likely fall apart. Another system moving out of
the Plains will bring another chance for precipitation to the
western mountains by early Monday. At this time confidence is low as
these systems have a hard time maintaining precipitation where
terrain is involved.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Through this morning, and most of the day, all terminals will be
VFR. SCT to BKN skies this morning through the mid evening, will
increase to BKN to OVC for KBLF and KLWB by 20Z today, and for
KBCB, KROA, and KLYH by 22Z, with a cold front approaching from
the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the
front, reaching the southeast WV terminals as early as 21Z,
KROA, KLYH and KBCB between 22Z and 00Z. There is higher
confidence in thunderstorms over southeast WV and north of I-64
in VA, so have included -TSRA in the TAF for KLWB. Uncertainty
increases farther south, so have only included VCTS for the
other terminals. Confidence is moderate to high that storms will
not reach as far east as KDAN, so have not included mention of
showers or storms in the KDAN TAF at this time. The threat for
storms will diminish after 04Z, but upslope showers and sub- VFR
ceilings will linger for KBLF and KLWB through the end of
current TAF period. Visibilities could be reduced in heavier
rain showers Monday evening and overnight. Damaging winds and
large hail are the primary threat with any of the stronger
storms.

West to southwest winds of 8 to 12 knots will gust 20 to 25
knots after 15Z, and gusty winds will persist through the
remainder of the TAF period, ending at 06Z Tuesday. Winds near
thunderstorms could gust higher. Low level wind shear will
impact all terminals west of the Blue Ridge, except KROA,
through around 14Z Monday.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high on timing of storms, but
lower on storm coverage and intensity.



.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Gusty winds, with gusts up to 45 knots, will continue through
most of Tuesday, with the highest gusts along and west of the
Blue Ridge. High pressure will bring a return to widespread VFR
conditions by Wednesday, and will persist through the end of the
work week, before another system over the weekend brings
increasing chances for sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS/BMG
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...AS