Richmond, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 2 Miles ESE Richmond VA
National Weather Service Forecast for:
2 Miles ESE Richmond VA
Issued by: National Weather Service Wakefield, VA |
Updated: 3:12 am EST Dec 4, 2024 |
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Overnight
Clear
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Wednesday
Increasing Clouds
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Wednesday Night
Partly Cloudy
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Thursday
Breezy. Slight Chance Showers then Sunny
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Thursday Night
Clear
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Friday
Sunny
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Friday Night
Clear
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Saturday
Sunny
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Saturday Night
Mostly Clear
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Lo 20 °F |
Hi 47 °F |
Lo 38 °F |
Hi 43 °F |
Lo 23 °F |
Hi 40 °F |
Lo 21 °F |
Hi 44 °F |
Lo 29 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Overnight
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Clear, with a low around 20. Calm wind. |
Wednesday
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Increasing clouds, with a high near 47. Light southwest wind increasing to 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. |
Thursday
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A slight chance of showers before 10am. Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 43. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Thursday Night
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Clear, with a low around 23. West wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. |
Friday
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Sunny, with a high near 40. |
Friday Night
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Clear, with a low around 21. |
Saturday
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Sunny, with a high near 44. |
Saturday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 29. |
Sunday
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Sunny, with a high near 56. |
Sunday Night
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. |
Monday
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A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Monday Night
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A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Tuesday
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A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 2 Miles ESE Richmond VA.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
670
FXUS61 KAKQ 040240
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
940 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The cold pattern continues into this weekend with most of the region
remaining dry. A few light showers are possible Thursday morning
across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. Otherwise, remaining
dry through this weekend with rain chances arriving early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 940 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Cold and dry again tonight.
- SW winds becoming breezy Wednesday ahead of next cold front.
Late this evening, sfc high pressure was centered over the mtns
SSW into the Gulf coast states. Low pressure over Central Canada
is expected to bring the next frontal passage later this week.
Under a clear sky, temps were ranging from the lower 20s into
the mid 30s. Lows tonight will be colder than last night, due to
very light or calm winds under a clear sky. Lows will range from
the mid teens to around 20 inland/Piedmont, and in the 20s near
the Bay/coast.
High temps will be slightly warmer on Wed than today with highs
in the mid 40s, with winds picking up ahead of the next cold
front. Mostly sunny to partly sunny. Gusts up to 25 mph will be
possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Breezy SW winds becoming WNW and remaining strong and gusty
Thursday.
- A few light rain showers are possible across the Northern Neck and
Eastern Shore Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
As high pressure moves further offshore to the SE, a strong clipper
system quickly moves across the Great lakes and into the New England
area Wed night into Thursday. This system will remain far enough to
the N that most of the impact remain outside of the FA. As the
pressure gradient tightens, winds will become breezy with gusts up
to 25-30 mph ahead of the cold front. Wed night, temps will be cool
with lows in the mid 30s.
The cold front will pass through the area late Wed night into Thurs
and will bring a chc for rain showers mixing with or ending as snow
showers across the Eastern Shore late Thurs morning. There isn`t
much moisture to this system leaving QPF totals to be trace to 0.02"
inches. Model soundings show temps slightly above freezing at the
time of showers, which decreases confidence of snow showers making
it to the surface. Temps will be the warmest just after sunrise in
the mid 40s (upper 40s to lower 50s in SE VA/ NE NC), as the cold
front filters in cool air causing temps to fall throughout the day.
Fri highs will continue to be cool around 40 degrees.
While the cold front won`t bring much precip to the area, the winds
will be noticeable. Behind the cold front, winds will increase with
gusts up to 35-45 mph, highest across the Eastern Shore.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Chilly temperatures persist through Saturday, before a significant
warming trend begins Sunday and especially Monday.
- Rain chances increase early next week.
To start the weekend, the cold front from Thursday will be situated
well offshore, leaving cool high pressure in its wake over the OH
Valley and ern/SE CONUS. Aloft, NW flow is expected initially as the
associated trough axis also shifts offshore. With slowly diminishing
winds and clear skies, Friday night looks to be very chilly, with
forecast lows in the mid-upper teens inland and low-mid 20s closer
to the coast. Thicknesses and heights gradually rebound by Saturday
afternoon and highs should be a few degrees milder than Friday, but
still on the cold side (mid 40s), albeit under a mostly sunny sky.
Cloud coverage could be higher across the N as a reinforcing
shortwave slides through. Similarly not as chilly Saturday night
though the vast majority of the area still likely drops below
freezing and into the mid-upper 20s. The sfc high builds south of
the area and the low-level flow shifts to the SW as we head into
Sunday. Thicknesses also increase markedly as ridging develops and
expands over the SE CONUS. As a result, there has been a upward
trend in high temperatures Sunday and most of the area is expected
to top out in the mid-upper 50s. Cannot rule out additional upward
adjustments if the eastward progression or strength of the ridge
ends up being faster/stronger. Additionally, skies (as of now) are
expected to be sunny or mostly sunny, so it should feel quite
nice...especially after the recent cold spell. Forecast lows Sunday
night are in the mid-upper 30s inland and around 40 F at the coast.
A significant pattern change is expected early next week as the deep-
layer flow becomes southwesterly and high pressure sets up near
Bermuda. This will favor much milder temperatures and at least
intermittent chances for precip. The precip coverage will be
dependent on the track of various weaker shortwaves downstream of a
larger positively-tilted trough over the western states. Either way,
think most of the area sees something in the way of rainfall in the
early-mid week period next week, but the coverage varies among the
guidance. The highest PoPs are currently highest (50%) across N and
NW portions of the forecast area Monday, with lower confidence and
lower PoPs Tuesday. In terms of temps, highs Monday range from the
mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE. Tuesday`s highs could be even higher
(potentially nearing 70 in some spots). This is still ~7 days away,
however.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 705 PM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions and dry weather will prevail at the TAF sites
from this evening into Wed evening. Expect mainly SKC or FEW CI
this evening through Wed morning, then increasing CI or SCT AC
Wed aftn into Wed aftn, well in advance of a cold front. Very
light NW or N winds tonight into early Wed morning, then winds
becoming SW and increase for later Wed morning into Wed night.
A cold front will move through the area Thu, bringing potential
gusts up to 25-35 kt, with the Eastern Shore potentially
reaching gusts up to 45 kt.
Outlook: Behind the cold front Thu, VFR conditions are expected
for the weekend. Rain chances Mon and Tue could result in
degraded flight categories.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions across the northern
Chesapeake Bay this evening into the early overnight hours.
- Much stronger winds are expected beginning Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday night in advance of and following a strong cold
front.
- A long duration period of sustained winds in excess of 25 knots
with gusts in excess of 35 knots are likely for much of the area
with Gale Warnings now in effect for a majority of the waters.
This afternoon, ~1036 mb high pressure remains centered to our west
with low pressure located well offshore. Winds are generally out of
the NW, ranging from 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots.
Seas are running around 2 to 4 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake
Bay around 1 to 2 feet.
Expect a brief uptick in the wind later this evening into the early
portions of the night, especially across the northern Chesapeake Bay
and northern coastal waters out 20 nm. As a result, a SCA is in
effect through this evening for the northern-most Chesapeake Bay
zone for wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds then rapidly diminish
after midnight as high pressure builds towards the region tonight
into early Wednesday morning. Wind speeds drop to around 5 to 10
knots over all of the waters as we approach sunrise Wednesday AM.
The calmer conditions are short lived as low pressure develops over
the Great Lakes region later Wednesday morning/afternoon and the
high gets pushed to the southeast. The pressure gradient will be
tightening considerably by Wednesday afternoon/evening and SW winds
will rapidly increase to 20 to 30 knots. By Wednesday night, winds
increase to 25 to 35 knots with gusts to 40+ knots. Local wind probs
continue to show a high probability (80-90%+) for a majority of the
waters for gusts of 34 knots, and 40-50% chances for wind gusts of
43 knots over the northern coastal waters. Gale Warnings are now in
effect for all waters minus the upper rivers Wednesday evening/night
with Small Craft Advisories ahead of the Gale headlines starting
Wednesday afternoon. A strong cold front crosses the waters Thursday
morning, with strong CAA in its wake. Winds turn around to the NW
Thursday morning, with gusts of 35 to 40 knots continuing. It is
possible that the upper rivers may need to be upgraded to a Gale
Warning Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, with model
soundings show deep mixing bringing the potential for 35 to 40 knots
gusts further inland. Will let future shifts make the call on the
upper rivers. Winds gradually decrease later Thursday
afternoon/evening as the pressure gradient begins to relax but will
still remain above SCA thresholds through most of Friday before high
pressure builds towards the area.
Seas build to 6 to 10 feet across the northern waters and 4 to 7
feet across the southern waters late Wednesday through Thursday.
Waves in the bay build to 4 to 6 feet, with the peak likely
Wednesday night. Waves/seas will decrease on Friday but seas
offshore likely remain near/above 5 ft into early Friday
evening.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...
With the strong SW winds expected Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, there is increasing potential for blow out tides
during the low tide cycle early Thursday. Guidance has many
lower bay sites and some ocean sites dropping to at least -1.0
ft MLLW. These low water levels could impact navigation in some
areas Thu.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
Gale Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ632-634-638.
Gale Warning from 10 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ632>634-638-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ633-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday
for ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-
652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/TMG
NEAR TERM...KMC/TMG
SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...KMC/TMG
MARINE...AJB/HET/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
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