Newport News, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

362
FXUS61 KAKQ 120204
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1004 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rainfall slowly lifts north tonight, but dreary
conditions linger through much of Saturday with an upper low
remaining over the area. High pressure gradually builds back
into the area Sunday into early next week bringing a warming
trend. A series of cold fronts likely cross the region Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread rain across the northern half of the area this
  evening, slowly shifts north of the region after midnight,
  though light rain and possibly drizzle will linger through
  Saturday morning.

The latest WX analysis indicates ~1007mb sfc low pressure off
the SE VA coast, with a broad upper low in place from the
eastern Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians. With the sfc
low lifting NNE, the widespread showers with moderate to
locally heavy rainfall has shifted mainly to the N of the I-64
corridor, and this trend will continue overnight. There have
been localized rainfall totals in excess of 2" today, with most
of the region having received 0.50-1.50". Tstms are now confined
to the coast of the eastern shore and this will be finished
shortly. Mainly cloudy skies cloudy skies will linger over the
area tonight even as the bulk of measurable rain comes to and
before sunrise Saturday. There will be enough wind on the back-
side of the sfc low to preclude any fog development despite the
saturated low level airmass. Lows will mostly be in the low-mid
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures and cloudy skies continue on Saturday.

- Temperatures gradually rebound Sunday.

Upper low will linger over the area on Saturday as the surface low
slowly pulls away to the northeast. Cloudy skies with light
rain/drizzle will be possible, especially over the northeastern half
of the area. QPF will be very light with only a few hundredths
expected (at most). Clouds will keep temperatures well below
seasonal norms with highs ranging from the mid/upper 50s S and SW to
the upper 40s for the MD Eastern Shore. Any lingering drizzle or
light rain will become confined to coastal areas and the Eastern
Shore by Saturday night with lows generally in the low 40s.

Improving conditions are expected Sunday as the upper low moves
offshore and high pressure builds into the region from the SW. Skies
will clear from SW to NE through the morning hours with afternoon
high temps expected to range from mid 60s SW (where more sun is
expected) to the upper 50s and low 60s for the NE portion of the
area. Partly cloudy Sunday night with more clouds favored over the
north. Low temps generally in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A warmup is expected early next week ahead of a cold frontal
  passage.

- Dry and cooler conditions return Wednesday and Thursday.

A warmup is expected Monday and Tuesday as a ridge briefly builds
over the area before sliding offshore. Temps warm into the mid-upper
70s Monday and upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday. A series of cold fronts
push through starting Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday with
cooler temps arriving by midweek. Moisture will be limited with the
first front but did add some chance/slight chance PoPs to the
forecast Tuesday afternoon/evening. Breezy W winds are expected
Tuesday afternoon with winds gusting to 20-30 mph. Temps cool by mid
week with highs in the upper 50s NE to mid-upper 60s S Wednesday and
60s Thursday. Lows fall back into the upper 30s (locally mid 30s
possible) Wednesday night, however, confidence is low at this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Friday...

Widespread rain is slowly lifting N this evening, though light
showers are still passing across southern VA. Generally low-end
MVFR to IFR CIGs prevail, with some IFR VSBYs in the heavier
showers N of I-64. With sfc low pressure now just off the SE VA
coast, winds are increasing from the NNW, with gusts in the
20-25 kt range likely through ~06Z in most areas. IFR to low-end
MVFR flight restrictions continue into Saturday morning, with
slowly improving conditions during the day Saturday. A gusty NW
wind will persist through the aftn. The best chance at seeing
additional scattered showers and flight restrictions for most or
all of the day will be near the coast, especially at SBY.

Outlook: Improving conditions with VFR/dry WX Sunday through
early Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 510 PM EST Friday...

- Small Craft Advisories in effect for all coastal waters,
  Chesapeake Bay, and the rivers through Saturday night.

- Small Craft Advisories will likely need extended into Sunday as
  seas remain elevated.

Surface low pressure is located over NE NC this afternoon. Winds
remain onshore 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt for the VA and MD
water. The surface low pressure is keeping winds lower off the NC
coast. In conjunction, SCAs are in effect for the VA, NC, and
MD coastal waters along with the Bay, as winds are at marginal
wind SCA criteria in the Bay and elevated seas in the coastal
waters. Latest buoy obs show seas have increased to 5 to 7 ft
in the coastal waters with the onshore winds with 2 to 3 ft
waves in the Bay. As the low moves offshore, winds will shift to
be out of the NW and gradually increase overnight, primarily in
the Bay and MD coastal waters. SCAs for the rivers will go into
effect tonight as the winds increase. Waves will additionally
increase tonight to 6 to 8 ft in the northern coastal waters.

As the pressure gradient increases behind the low pressure system,
winds will likely be the strongest in the early morning hours on
Saturday in the Bay at 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt out of the
NW. Elevated winds will continue through Saturday for the waters
currently in Small Craft Advisories. Extensions for the SCAs will
likely be needed into Sunday as winds gradually begin to decrease
but waves remain elevated.

High pressure will build into the region Sunday and Monday with
benign marine conditions likely behind this round of SCAs. Another
cold front could move through the area on Tuesday with the potential
for elevated seas and winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Have issued a Flood Warning for the Nottoway river at Sebrell,
with the river expected to rise to minor flood stage by early
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...LKB/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...AJB/RHR
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...HET/KMC
HYDROLOGY...AKQ