Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

626
FXUS61 KRNK 121049
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
649 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated. Made adjustments to Pops this morning to
account for radar/high res model trends.

Probability of precipitation higher today than Saturday.
Potential for some slow moving/anchored showers/storms along the
Blue Ridge late this afternoon/evening.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Slow moving cold front will be the focus for showers
and storms into Monday with temperatures trending cooler each
day.

Key Message 2: Much of the area will be dry with warm/hot conditions
for mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Slow moving cold front will be the focus for showers
and storms into Monday with temperatures trending cooler each
day.

Forecast centers around where front lays up today, but model
trends indicate more of a southward push leading to an easterly
low level wind, with west winds aloft. This pattern with
shortwave support tends to bring slow moving or anchored
showers/storms to the area, but with more cloud cover today, not
as concerned with severe weather, despite the marginal risk.
The potential for localized flash flooding is increasing,
especially along the Blue Ridge, mainly south of Roanoke to
Boone. At this time convective allowing models still differ on
where this potential band of heavier rains may set up, so
leaving out any flood watches, as 3/hr FFG still running 2-3",
and do not thing the flooding threat is widespread enough.

Until the 5h positive tilt trough pushes east Monday, shower
chances will remain higher. Still being on the north side of the
front will keep us cooler, but muggy with dewpoints in the 60s
to lower 70s. Humidity during the day could be 70 to 90 percent.



Key Message 2: Much of the area will be dry with warm/hot conditions
for mid-week.

High pressure will keep much of the region dry during the middle
part of the week. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out,
especially across the southern and western portions of the area.
These regions will be farthest away from the center of the high, and
by Thursday the next approaching weather system will be over parts
of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Temperatures are expected to
trend milder each day, so that by Thursday, values about five to ten
degrees above normal will be common across the area. When
considering humidity as well, and we will be looking at much of the
Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina experiencing late afternoon
heat index values around or a little over 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect mainly a variable VFR to IFR cigs/vsbys this morning east
to west, with LWB in the LIFR range. Should have some MVFR/VFR
conditions for late morning, before showers/few storms arrive
and start to lower most areas to sub-VFR. Still periods of VFR
possible where it doesn`t rain.

Tonight, showers may linger but cigs and some vsbys will likely
drop to IFR or worse over most areas.

Amendments as necessary based on radar trends. Thunder chances
seem low as cloud cover limits instability.

Winds overall look to remain light and variable at around 5
knots or less.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Expect showers across the region through at least Monday,
tapering off Monday night along with areas sub-VFR conditions
for both ceilings and visibility.

VFR conditions are expected for most locations Tuesday through
Thursday.

Prevailing winds for most locations during this period will
generally be less than 7 kts.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS/WP
AVIATION...DS/EB/WP