Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

995
FXUS61 KRNK 181050
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
650 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chance of rain likely later in the week with cold front passage.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following
the cold front on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following
the cold front on Wednesday.

The warming trend will continue until a cold front arrives Wednesday
to briefly bring cooler temperatures and the start of a wet
trend for the region. The center of a surface high pressure
system over Bermuda will nudge a little eastward and permit an
approaching cold front to reach our area. The cold front`s
arrival will likely be as early as Wednesday. The front will
struggle to pass southward but will be forced back northward as
a warm front due to the presence of a developing low in south-
central CONUS. The meandering behavior of the front suggests a
multi-day precipitation trend where pretty much the entire
region will get daily chances of rain. This is excellent news in
relation to the drought conditions we have been going through
this Spring. Flood concerns are on the lower end as it would
take several inches in an hour to lead to any flash flooding. In
addition, the rainfall estimates for Wednesday and Thursday
combined range between 0.5-1.0 inches at best. PWATs are
projected to average around 1-1.5" from Wednesday onward so some
storms that develop may have relatively heavy rainfall rates.
The severe weather threat looks to be low for Wednesday and
Thursday. CAPE, no doubt, will be plentiful with the warm and
moist conditions but the wind shear will be better to the north
with bulk shear of only about 25 knots over southwest VA. Lapse
rates are also underwhelming given the presence of warmer air
aloft due to a 850mb surface high off the Atlantic. Still, the
shear may be enough to support some organized multicells and
modeled skew-Ts suggest inverted V soundings so the threat of
damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

As a side note, the cold front will have a large surface high
pressure system behind it, centered over the Great Lakes as it
passes to our north. It will briefly wedge into our mountains and
provide a break in the warm temperatures with highs in the 60s and
lower 70s by Friday. The wedge and temperature drop does not last
since the warm front then moves north to return high temperatures
back to the 70s to lower 80s. Dew points and PWATs take a short dip
as well but recover by the weekend.

The warm front will be back to our north by the weekend and with
reinforced warm and moist temperatures, the chances of daily
rainfall may continue into early next week. Model guidance also
hints at another surface low moving northeast across the Midwest
and sending another front through by this weekend. Confidence is
highest for rain on Wednesday and Thursday and any rain chances
following will be monitored in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aside from possible reduced VSBY/cig at KLWB from any fog that
forms, expect VFR conditions through the period. Some daytime cu
near 5-6 kft could form at the mountain sites otherwise some cirrus
is possible. Daytime winds mainly south to SW at 10kts or less then
decreasing back by this evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through
the beginning of the week outside of any river valley fog that may
develop. This river valley fog may lead to some brief periods of
restrictions due to lowering VSBYs at LWB. More widespread rain and
scattered thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday with the approach
of a cold front. Rain and storm chances and cloud cover linger
through the end of the week with the system possibly stalling across
the area. This may lead to sub-VFR conditions through the end of the
work week.

Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical
outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have
been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is
being appended to its TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the
current records and our current forecast.


Monday, May 18, 2026

Station     Hi Max T    Hi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke     94 in 1962  69 in 1996       94
Lynchburg   93 in 1911  68 in 1894       93
Danville    93 in 1974  69 in 2015       94
Bluefield   87 in 1996  66 in 2015       86
Blacksburg  88 in 1911  61 in 2018       90


Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Station     Hi Max T    Hi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke     96 in 1962  69 in 2022       94
Lynchburg   93 in 1962  66 in 2022       93
Danville    95 in 1962  69 in 1962       95
Bluefield   89 in 1911  66 in 1977       86
Blacksburg  91 in 1911  61 in 1938       90

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...AB
CLIMATE...RCS/AB