Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS61 KRNK 252343
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
643 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system is moving across the area
this morning bringing scattered light to moderate rain showers
to most areas north of the North Carolina and Virginia border.
High pressure once again settles north of the area on Friday
leading to calm but cool weather before another system works
its way into region by Friday night. Colder air returns early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 610 PM EST Thursday...



Key Messages:

1. More rain Friday, continuing off and on for much of the day.

2. Warmer today, then cooler temperatures expected Friday

Per the latest surface analysis, most of the area remains in
the warm sector this evening. The frontal and weak line of
showers will slide south overnight. Overall, coverage of rain
will dwindle down through the next few hours, some chances still
over far SW VA and NW NC mountains, but most will be dry
through midnight, as high pressure builds in and wedges against
the eastern side of the Appalachians tonight.


The next shortwave trough and associated surface low
tracks into the Mid Atlantic through Friday, and there will be
enough moisture in the area to prompt more rain, especially over
the mountains. Some low level cooler air from the wedge and a
strong warm nose aloft could result in pockets of freezing rain
for the higher ridges in the Alleghany Highlands and in the
Peaks of Otter area, but any accumulations would be a few
hundredths at best, and looks to be isolated enough to not
warrant any winter headlines at this time.

The aforementioned wedge will also hold high temperatures down
tomorrow, mainly in the 40s and 50s, the cooler temps towards
the northeastern third of the CWA. Expect a non-diurnal trend in
temperatures tomorrow, as the wedge erodes late Friday night
with the surface low tracking closer, thus temperatures warming
through Friday night. Lows tonight will also not be far off from
tomorrow`s high temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Above normal temperatures into the weekend.

2) A chance of rain before next cold front arrives.

With the previous rain systems out of the way, wedging is once again
reintroduced briefly to the region. This cold air damming (CAD) will
be short-lived but will provide some changes to temperatures.
Saturday afternoon will be very warm with highs potentially reaching
up to 70F in the Piedmont. The CAD will bring temperatures down a
little into the 40s and 50s for the highs but this will still be
warm for this time of year. Dew points will also decline a little
from the 40s and 50s to the 30s and 40s. Rain is possible again
during the weekend as some mid-level vorticity grazes the area but
confidence on this is on the lower side and contained to the West
Virginia counties. Otherwise, late Sunday into early Monday morning
is when the next best chance of rain returns ahead of an approaching
cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Potent cold front to bring back dry and frigid air.

2) Another chance of rain and some snow as cold front pushes through.

Main headline for this part of the forecast period is a strong cold
front will move through by Monday and send very dry and cold air
following it. Temperatures have trended slightly up but it will
still be frigid especially after the warm spell on Christmas week.
The drop in temperatures will likely be noticeable by Monday night
as plenty of cold air advects from Canada to much of the eastern
United States. Winds will also be elevated with sustained winds of
10-20 mph and gusts between 30-40 mph. As usual, since the winds are
northwesterly, the highest winds will be along and west of the Blue
Ridge. These winds will persist into Tuesday and will begin to
diminish by Wednesday. With the winds, wind chill values could get
as low as 0 for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge and in the
teens towards the east. Temperatures may recover late next week but
still be close to normal seasonal averages.

Rain ahead of the front will be likely for most of the area Monday.
It is a little early to know how much rain will fall but the
dominant precipitation type leans on rain until the cold air
catches up with the precipitation. Monday evening might have
some snow mixed with the rain for the more western mountainous
counties, but confidence will grow as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Thursday...

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions areawide this evening, and
this trend looks to continue into Friday morning, especially
along and west of the Blue Ridge, where low clouds and ceilings
have lingered the longest. If the area did not have a blanket of
clouds over the area, widespread dense fog would be common into
early Friday morning. Since the boundary will not drop to far
to the south, will hang on to IFR-MVFR ceilings, while keeping
visibilities between 5SM-7SM into the afternoon.

Rain arrives for western terminals Friday morning, and looks to
be pretty scattered in nature. The better coverage of rain will
arrive late Friday afternoon into the evening.

Northwest winds becoming light this evening. Winds late tonight
into Friday will veer around to the southeast, and still remain
light. KBLF could be out of the wedge through Friday and carry
a southwesterly flow for the day.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Precipitation and sub-VFR conditions look to continue through
Saturday. A brief return to VFR areawide is expected Sunday.
More precipitation will arrive Monday, bringing the potential
for sub-VFR, and with a sharp drop in temperatures and strong,
gusty winds to follow.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...AS/RCS
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RCS