Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

407
FXUS61 KRNK 112337
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
737 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system over eastern Virginia will bring showers
and isolated thunderstorms to the area, before tracking
northeast and off the coast Saturday. Clouds will begin to thin
Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west. Sunday and
Monday will be dry and much warmer as we remain under the
influence of high pressure. A cold front will cross the area
Monday night, sending temperatures below normal midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

1) Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible through this
evening...then partial clearing.

2) Lingering clouds and a few showers Saturday, otherwise
breezy and trending drier.


Full latitude long wave trough will close off into a
closed Low near the Delmarva Peninsula by Saturday morning
before drifting northeast and away from the area. Strongest UVM
is progged to move north along the I-95 corridor where rain will
be most prolific. Farther west across our forecast area, will
be dealing with cold air aloft and instability showers, the
convective allowing models supporting scattered to numerous
activity through about 10PM this evening along with some
isolated thunderstorms. As we progress through the evening, the
northeast winds will gradually back to the northwest introducing
downslope drying for the east side of the Appalachians, clouds
thinning with time. In the west, light upslope precipitation
and cloud cover will linger.

For Saturday, expecting additional clearing. Weak instability
during the afternoon may lead to a few showers, but the overall
trend will be for increasing sunshine. Winds will be out of the
northwest and gusty at times, especially over the ridges.

High temperatures are expected to remain 5-10 degF cooler than
normal for Saturday...but close to the seasonal norm for the
overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet weather persists for most of the period.

2) Rain chances increase Monday night west of the Blue Ridge.

3) Below normal temperatures Sunday quickly rebound to above average
for Monday.

Rain will taper off late Saturday as the low moves offshore into the
Atlantic. High pressure over the Southeastern US builds back into
the RNK CWA and will suppress any convection, keeping quiet weather
continuing through most of the period, though a few spotty showers
may be possible Sunday night west of the Blue Ridge. By Monday
night, a low pressure system in southern Canada, near the Great
Lakes Region, will move east. The associated cold front and upper-
level trough moves into the area overnight, bringing rainfall to
areas west of the Blue Ridge. The front dies out as it moves into
the Piedmont, where little to no rainfall is expected. Ensemble
means show QPF totals for west of the Blue Ridge ranging from around
0.10" to as much as 0.25" in our WV counties.

Temperatures will vary through the period, as slightly below normal
highs will be in place Sunday, in the 50s/60s. Highs then return to
well above normal for Monday, in the 70s area-wide up into the low
80s in the piedmont as southwesterly flow causes WAA across the
region. Lows will start out cold, in the 30s Sunday morning, rising
into the 40s/50s by Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Upslope rain showers possible on the western facing mountains
Tuesday.

2) Quiet weather returns until the next system arrives Thursday
night into Friday, bringing widespread rainfall.

3) Temperatures remain below to near normal through the period.

Once the cold front passes through Tuesday morning, northwest flow
behind the front, along with some mid-level moisture and assistance
from an upper-level trough will provide enough lift for upslope rain
showers through the day on Tuesday into Tuesday night before
tapering off. High pressure once again builds into the area from the
southwest, with quiet, dry weather persisting through Thursday
afternoon. A clipper system will merge with a developing low
pressure across the Great Plains, and move into our area late next
week. This will bring rain back into the forecast beginning Thursday
afternoon through the end of the period. Details are still uncertain
this far out, but rainfall is expected to be area-wide as the cold
front will be strong as it moves through.

Temperatures will continue to be near to slightly below average each
day of the period. Highs will generally be in the 50s/60s each day,
and by late week, 70s may return to the piedmont. Low temperatures
will generally be in the 30s/40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Friday...

CIGs and VSBYs look to drop from MVFR restrictions this evening
to IFR and in some cases LIFR restrictions during the overnight
hours tonight. These restrictions, which have already dropped to
LIFR levels at BLF look to linger through at least 12 UTC before
northerly/northeasterly winds back to become northwesterly.
These northwest winds will likely slowly lift out ROA, LYH, and
DAN from IFR to MVFR to eventually VFR conditions through the
mid morning to early afternoon hours. The remaining sites west
of the Blue Ridge are expected to remain under MVFR to IFR
restrictions through at least the 18-19 UTC timeframe before
VFR conditions return. Northwest winds may be gusty at times,
but will likely remain in the 15-20 knot threshold at all
terminals west of the Blue Ridge, with LYH and DAN likely only
seeing gusts up to 15 knots at times Saturday afternoon. VFR
conditions look to return to all terminals by the end of the taf
period.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Expect VFR Sunday into Monday. May see some sub-VFR cigs with a
few showers Monday night into Tuesday but low confidence. Gusty
northwest winds expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB/PM