Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

129
FXUS61 KRNK 281039
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
639 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviaton updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential strong storms today mainly east of the Blue Ridge.
Damaging winds and localized flooding possible.


2) Heat builds into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential strong storms today. Damaging winds
and localized flooding possible.

A relatively broad/weak upper trough will gradually shift eastward
today across the region. Widely scattered storm development is
expected this afternoon within a weakly capped and moderately
buoyant environment. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates and
large PW will support localized downburst potential, though weak
deep- layer shear should generally limit the organized-severe
threat. Storm motion will likely be west to east in the 10-20
mph range. Some merging cells or back building could lead to
flooding issues but given the widely scattered nature, not
seeing a need for flood watches and also the Piedmont which
should have more coverage can tend to handle more rainfall. Will
have to watch urban areas like Danville/Martinsville and
Lynchburg for localized street flooding if storms move over
them.

Front edges southward Saturday so not as much coverage expected
and most will be south of the VA/NC border.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Heat builds into next week.

A sprawling upper ridge expanding from the Central U.S. to the
Southeast U.S. will focus a return to above normal temperatures
with 90s prevalent in the Piedmont/Roanoke/Lexington areas and
reach around 90 in portions of the New Rive Valley.

Long-range models start to show some troughiness moving into the
northeast late next week pushing the ridge southwest, and
turning the flow to the northwest over us. This would open the
door for potential organized convective clusters again around
the Thursday to Friday time frame. Still some model disagreement
as to how/when the ridge weakens.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any fog/low stratus should be gone around 14z, leaving VFR the
rest of the day.

Storm coverage this afternoon should be scattered again with
higher chances east of a ROA/BCB line. Any storms if they move
over an airport will drop vsbys/cigs to IFR potentially. Given
scattered nature, only have VCTS in at all terminals except BLF,
with less coverage expected here.

Another late night fog at LWB/BCB likely with no change in
airmass and clearer skies. Fog also possible at DAN closer to
the front.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The weekend into early next week appears drier with warmer
temperatures. VFR expected outside any late night fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...SH/WP