Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

094
FXUS61 KRNK 050703
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
203 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory continues through the early morning
hours for light snow. Light accumulations are expected.

A Winter Storm Watch continues for western Greenbrier County WV
Friday morning through Saturday morning for heavy snow
potential.

Increasing confidence in strong and gusty winds Friday afternoon
through Saturday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light wintry precipitation continues today through the early
morning hours.

2) A strong cold front will bring cold and windy conditions
towards the weekend.

3) Snow is increasing in likelihood for western mountainous
counties.

4) Reprieve in freezing weather possible next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:

1) Light wintry precipitation through the early morning
hours.

An upper level trough axis stretching from NY State down into
the Gulf Coast will become more positively tilted and shift
east quickly during the day, moving offshore by tonight. A
frontal system over GA and the Carolinas will move offshore this
morning, allowing for high pressure to build in. Precipitation
was wrapping around the backside of the low, and we were seeing
areas of light snow, which will come to an end later this
morning.

Freezing fog and stratus will linger some after daybreak, but we
should see many locations becoming partly sunny today at least.
Expect parts of the foothills and all of the Piedmont to rise
above freezing today, while the mountains remain in the upper
20s to low 30s, partly due to the snowpack. Any melting today
may result in refreezing tonight with temperatures dropping into
the teens and 20s. This will mean more concerns for black ice
overnight into the Friday morning commute.

Tonight, stratus builds in again from the west, with cyclonic
flow still aloft and another surface low pressure system
forming over the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. Any
precipitation should hold off until after 7 AM Friday.


2) A strong cold front will bring cold and windy conditions
towards the weekend.

A cold front will pass through by Friday and deliver cold and
windy conditions to the area. An impressively tight pressure
gradient will develop between a high surface pressure system in
the Midwest and a low in the Atlantic Ocean. Winds will likely
pick up Friday and peak by Saturday morning. Sustained winds of
15-20 mph is likely west of the Blue Ridge and up to 35 mph
along ridgetops. Aided by a significant low level jet, wind
gusts are likely to be up to 60 mph at higher elevations. Wind
Advisories and High Wind Warnings will be considered in a future
forecast. The winds will persist into Saturday afternoon and
finally subside by Sunday morning when the center of the surface
high to our west moves overhead.

The winds will bring frigid air from Canada. Wind chill values
may reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria along and west of the
Blue Ridge as they head below zero Saturday and possibly Sunday
morning. Western Greenbrier may reach Extreme Cold Weather
criteria for wind chill values as low as -15F.


3) Snow increasing in likelihood for western mountainous
counties.

The cold front on Friday is likely to also bring upslope snow to
the region. Confidence is increasing on western-facing slopes
receiving snow Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Snow
amounts have also ticked up slightly with the highest at Western
Greenbrier with 5-7" of additional snow possible. The Winter
Storm Watch for this area remains in effect and may be upgraded
in a future forecast. Other areas in Western Virginia and as
south as Tazewell, Grayson, and even Ashe County may receive
between 1-3" of snow. Winter Weather Advisories will be
considered if these values trend upward. Otherwise, counties
between the Blue Ridge and the Appalachians may receive between
0.25-0.75" of additional snow.


4) Reprieve in freezing weather possible next week.

After this weekend, weather conditions look relatively quiet for
the first half of next week. There is some uncertainty on
future weather systems that may pass through to bring a small
chance of precipitation. The only items that look to be
consistent is a cutoff low off Baja California to be reabsorbed
into the mean flow and a warming trend. The cutoff low looks to
transition into a shortwave, decay, head eastward in the
southern CONUS, and likely be too south to affect our region.
Modest 500mb ridging at the southeastern United States looks to
raise heights and bring some zonal/southwesterly winds which
will permit a period of well above freezing temperatures. Though
a week in advance, model guidance suggests highs could get into
the 40s and 50s and offer a break in the frigid weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Poor flying weather will through this morning with cigs low end
MVFR to LIFR at times. Light snow will exit the area later this
morning. The potential for freezing drizzle also exists through
this morning, increasing the threat for icing. Vsbys with
precip could drop as low as IFR. Gradual improvement after 12z
Thu with most becoming VFR/MVFR in the 14-18z time frame. Expect
gradual clearing all terminals this afternoon. Winds to be
mainly under 10kts and out of the northeast to north.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The next arctic front arrives Friday with another chance for
snow  and sub-VFR cigs . Northwest winds are going to be gusty
and potentially gust to 25 to 40 kts behind the front Friday
evening into early Saturday. We should see a return to VFR east
of the mountains Saturday and in WV by Saturday evening. VFR to
remain in place for Sunday through Tuesday.&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     VAZ032-033-043-044-058.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NCZ004>006.
WV...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     morning for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/SH
AVIATION...SH