Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

722
FXUS61 KRNK 121804
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
204 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm and humid weather is expected to continue into the weekend;
however, a frontal passage north of the region may usher in
drier air for areas west of the Blue Ridge. Moisture looks to
linger across the Piedmont through at least the weekend. Daily
chances of rain and thunderstorms, some of which could produce
heavy rainfall, and localized flash flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Low clouds/fog this morning.

2) Showers may be more numerous Wednesday.

A mid level shortwave vorticity maxima embedded in the mean flow
is expected to push through the area on Wednesday. This will
provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity to develop
through the mid morning and early afternoon hours across the
region. Some lingering light shower activity may persist through
the late overnight and early morning hours Wednesday as
convection pushing north out of Georgia from today will make its
way into the region by Wednesday morning. It looks to push
through from south to north along the I-81 corridor throughout
the early to mid morning hours ahead of the aforementioned
shortwave. This will again lead to significant cloud cover
across the region through much of the day on Wednesday. This
will again keep temperatures cool through much of the morning
before some breaks in the afternoon and evening allow
temperatures to climb into the low 80s east of the Blue Ridge,
and mid to upper 70s west of the Blue Ridge. Given PWATs still
hovering in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range, any showers or
thunderstorms that do develop will be able to quickly put down
heavy rainfall totals. Given this threat, the entire area is
under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on
Wednesday. While the threat for widespread flooding is not
expected, the threat for localized flash flooding is, which may
cause rises on local streams and rivers, and the possibility of
flooded roadways near poor drainage areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Thunderstorms expected each day of the period, though chances
lower Friday.

2) Isolated flash flooding possible where the heaviest rainfall
occurs.

3) Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal.

For the late week, summer weather continues with daily chances of
afternoon storms. A surface high off the East Coast will drive
moisture into the area, along with an upper ridge over the
Southeastern US that will do the same for Thursday. Combined with an
approaching cold front to the northwest across the Ohio Valley, this
will be a setup for widespread afternoon storms to form. As the
ridge to the south builds, the flow turns northwesterly late in the
day. This flow will mean the highest chance of rainfall will be
along/west of the Blue Ridge, with gentle downsloping winds keeping
convection more scattered for the Piedmont. Storms dissipate
overnight with the loss of diurnal heating.

The front briefly stalls to our north and becomes oriented in an
east to west fashion Thursday night into Friday. The proximity of
the front as it begins to sag south will allow for a chance of
afternoon storms on Friday, albeit more scattered area-wide due to
drier air aloft. Winds also shift to the east late in the day, with
the upslope flow causing the highest chance of rain in the NC
mountains. The ridge to the south strengthens further and blocks the
moisture flow from the Gulf heading into Friday night.

Rain totals will not be high across the area on average, with
anywhere from 0.25" for the Piedmont to around 0.75" for the NC/VA
mountains. However, higher totals will be possible under the
strongest convection, which could lead to isolated flash flooding in
urban, low-lying, and flood prone areas.

Temperatures rise back to slightly above normal, with highs in the
upper 70s for the mountains and upper 80s to lower 90s for the
Piedmont. Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s as dewpoints
will be in the low 70s.  Overnight lows will generally be in the
60s, with a few low 70s for the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Storms possible each afternoon, driest day will be Sunday.

2) Above normal temperatures return and last through the period.

The front that was to north Friday sags south through the area as a
dissipating backdoor cold front. This will keep showers/storms in
the forecast for Saturday, despite drier air aloft, with PoPs of 30-
50%. The front fully dissipates by Sunday, with high pressure over
the Northeast US ridging down into our area. This will not be a
wedge like last week, as the flow will remain more easterly off the
Atlantic. The upslope flow will keep a few clouds around with low
storm chances for Sunday into Monday, as even drier air aloft will
suppress convection. PoPs for both days are around 10-30%. Monday
night into Tuesday, another cold front approaches from the north,
which will instigate better coverage of storms, with PoPs around 30-
40% area-wide for the afternoon.

Summer heat continues, with above normal temperatures continuing
through the period. Highs will be mainly in the 8-s for the
mountains, with the highest elevations in the upper 70s each day.
For the Piedmont, highs will be in the mid to upper 80s Saturday,
climbing into the mid 90s by Monday, before falling back into the
upper 80s Tuesday. Combined with dewpoints in the low 70s, and heat
indices will be in the upper 90s to near 100 Sunday and Monday. Lows
will stay consistent, in the 60s to around 70 each morning.

&&


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions have been slow to return to all terminals today,
with LYH, still lingering under MVFR restrictions this
afternoon. Based off of currently visible satellite trends,
these restrictions may linger off and on through the remainder
of the afternoon and evening hours before finally lifting
completely through the early overnight hours. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms currently across NW North Carolina are
expected to expand in coverage across the area later this
afternoon, which may lead to brief periods of MVFR to IFR
restrictions if in the vicinity of any terminal. During the late
overnight hours and early morning hours, MVFR to LIFR CIGs and
VSBYs are expected to develop once again across the area
impacting all terminals by the 12-13 UTC timeframe. These
restrictions look to linger across the area with isolated shower
activity through the end of the TAF period on Wednesday.



.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A front approaches late week keeping daily threat of storms
around and potential sub-VFR conditions through Saturday.

Morning fog and stratus may cause sub-VFR conditions through
the period as well, otherwise VFR outside of this and storms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/EB