Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

101
FXUS61 KRNK 281037
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
637 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The entire forecast has been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms should take place on
Sunday, but storm coverage should later decrease.

2) Hot and humid conditions will occur during the latter half
of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms should take
place on Sunday, but storm coverage should later decrease.

A slow-moving cold front will continue southeastward into North
Carolina later today. However, just like Saturday, another
upstream mesoscale convective system will decay across the
Appalachian Mountains over the next few hours to provide morning
showers. The associated cloud debris should hamper instability,
which means it will take some clearing to obtain enough
destabilization for afternoon convection to develop. If any
storms do fire, the threat for damaging winds appears to reside
across the Piedmont, especially in North Carolina. The cold
front should weaken as it heads offshore by Sunday night.
Moisture convergence and weak instability could generate
isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Blue Ridge on
Monday afternoon, but coverage will continue to dwindle as this
week progresses due to an approaching upper level ridge.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions will occur during the
latter half of this week.

A broad upper level ridge should build northeastward towards
the Ohio River Valley between Monday and Wednesday. This ridge
could become centered overhead by Thursday and Friday. While
chances of showers and thunderstorms should lessen due to
capping aloft, the bigger impact will be the increasing heat and
humidity. Temperatures should jump notably after Tuesday with
highs in the 90s for most locations and even a few lower 100s
east of the Blue Ridge for the remainder of this week. Heat
indices could reach up to 105 degrees across the Piedmont. There
may be upper level troughing across southeastern Canada that
could start to gradually weaken the ridge towards the end of
this week, but Independence Day looks to stay hot and humid.
Make sure to have plenty of water and sunscreen, and check your
air conditioners to ensure that they are working properly.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Incoming showers have started to impact BLF, LWB, and BCB
this morning as a thunderstorm complex pushed east out of
eastern Kentucky tonight into Southwest Virginia. While showers
are all that remain from this complex, it may lead to some
brief restrictions at area terminals as these showers move
through the region this morning. The longevity of this shower
and thunderstorm complex is uncertain once it passes the two
aforementioned terminals, and may break up prior to reaching
further east terminals such as LYH and DAN.

Outside of these showers and thunderstorms, MVFR to LIFR
restrictions are being observed at LYH and LWB this morning due
to reduced VSBYs from fog, and some reduced CIGs at LWB. These
restrictions look to hold through the early morning hours on
today.

Continued uncertainty exists in afternoon and evening
thunderstorm development today as the aforementioned system
may lead to cloud debris across the region inhibiting
substantial instability from developing across much of the area.
If this does occur, thunderstorm activity may be kept at a
minimum across the region, with scattered showers possible
instead. For the time being, Prob30 groups have been included at
nearly all terminals. Depending on the placement of shower and
thunderstorm activity, there may be some left over cloud debris
that may lead to some MVFR CIGs at mountain terminals through
the afternoon and evening hours today. This cloud cover may
linger through the end of the TAF period.

Overall, regardless of shower and thunderstorm activity,
southwest winds at around 5 knots or less are expected at all
terminals, with gusts up to 10-15 knots being possible across
mountain terminals today. Winds do look to turn to the
northwest/north across the region once a frontal boundary pushes
through the area during the late evening hours. Reduced CIGs and
VSBYs are expected to follow in the wake of this frontal
boundary.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
By Monday, High pressure settles into the region, and ridging
looks to build over the central/eastern Conus, providing
several days of likely VFR conditions across the region through
the middle of next week. Thunderstorms look to return Wednesday
across the region, with scattered to isolated storms forecast
daily through the end of the work week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...EB