Harrisonburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

583
FXUS61 KLWX 120111
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
911 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system slowly moves north from the Carolinas before
exiting off the Virginia coast overnight into Saturday. Surface high
pressure builds overhead from the west Saturday night through
Sunday. Another low pressure system and associated fronts impact the
region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 845 PM, current surface analysis shows an area of low
pressure located just off the southern Delmarva coast. A broad
shield of precipitation associated with 700 hPa frontogenetic
forcing and upper divergence at jet level is situated off to the
northwest of the low across much of the forecast area. Right now
a steady light to moderate rain is ongoing roughly to the east
of I-81, with drier conditions further west. Low pressure will
continue to lift northward off the Delmarva/NJ coastline
tonight, while an upper level low passes overhead aloft. The
precipitation shield will gradually lift north to northeastward
along with these features. CAMs indicate that the steady rain
may come to an end to the west of US-15 over the next few hours,
with rain lingering until around daybreak further east.
Rainfall is likely peaking in intensity now along the I-95
corridor, and should become lighter and a bit more showery in
nature during the late night hours.

Thus far, there has been a very tight gradient in precipitation
totals, with locations along/west of US-15 receiving much less
rain than locations along and southeast of the I-95 corridor.
The highest totals thus far have been across southern Maryland
(Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary`s Counties), where totals have
already reached 2-3 inches. An additional half inch or so may be
possible there before rain winds down later tonight, with a
general quarter to half of an inch of additional rainfall
expected for other locations to the east of US-15. Lighter
totals of less than a quarter inch are expected between I-81 and
US-15, with not much in the way of rainfall expected west of
I-81. The rainfall is largely expected to be beneficial in
nature given ongoing drought conditions across much of the
region.

Outside of the rainfall, foggy conditions may be possible on the
ridgetops along and west of the Blue Ridge as low clouds
intersect the terrain. Overnight low temperatures will be in the
low 40s for most, with 30s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned low pressure system will continue exiting off the
east coast on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the Ohio
River Valley. Isolated to scattered showers and increased cloud
cover linger throughout the day as an upper level low ushers in
moisture aloft. High temperatures will be in the 40s to mid 50s
across the area with those along the highest elevations staying in
the 30s. Isolated showers continue overnight with low temperatures
in the 30s to 40s.

Conditions dry out areawide on Sunday as surface high pressure
continues to build overhead. Cloud cover decreases throughout the
day with temperatures rising into the 50s to mid 60s. Isolated
showers are possible overnight along the Alleghenies as a low
pressure system tracks north of the Great Lakes and the associated
warm front approaches the area. Otherwise, dry conditions continue
overnight with low temperatures in the 40s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday will start with shortwave ridging overhead and surface high
pressure stretched across Florida. This will result in what will
likely be the warmest day of the week with many areas pushing into
the 70s. Meanwhile a trough and associated low pressure system will
be moving into the upper Great Lakes. During the afternoon,
convection is expected to develop across the Ohio Valley and lower
Great Lakes ahead of this system, aided by strong shear and steep
mid level lapse rates, despite otherwise modest thermodynamics. Most
guidance suggests this activity won`t reach the local area
until near or after sunset. By that time, waning instability,
lessening forcing, and a westerly downslope wind component will
likely cause precipitation to break up crossing the mountains.
However, will have to monitor the potential for some stronger
storms to move into the northwestern part of the CWA.

While the primary cold front will move through early Tuesday
morning, the trough axis aloft is lagging. Upslope rain showers will
continue at a minimum, but a few showers can`t be ruled out
elsewhere. It will also become windy behind the front, with gusts of
30-40 mph possible. Mountainous locations could approach Wind
Advisory criteria. While cooler than Monday, the initial westerly
flow will limit temperature falls, with highs mostly in the
60s. As cold advection continues, any lingering upslope
precipitation will change over to snow Tuesday night. A dry
secondary front will pass through Wednesday, knocking
temperatures back below normal and maintaining gusty winds.

Surface high pressure will likely build in Wednesday night into
Thursday. Wednesday night will likely feature the coldest
temperatures, though subfreezing values may be limited to the higher
elevations. Temperatures rebound slightly for Thursday. Another
dynamic low will move into the Great Lakes toward the end of the
week. Rain chances will steadily increase moving into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/low-end MVFR ceilings and rain continue at most terminals
this evening. CHO remains the exception, with VFR conditions
currently. Steady rainfall will persist through the first half
of the night, with the rain gradually becoming more showery in
nature during the second half of the night. Conditions will stay
IFR through most of the night, with winds out of the north to
north-northwest.

VFR conditions are expected to return late Saturday afternoon
into the evening. North/northwest winds gust around 20 knots in
the afternoon. High pressure builds over the region on Sunday,
with VFR conditions and light winds expected.

VFR conditions likely prevail Monday through Wednesday, although
there is a low chance of rain showers Monday night...and possibly a
thunderstorm at MRB. Winds will increase behind a cold front Tuesday
morning. West winds gusting 20-30 kt are possible through the day. A
secondary front will renew northwesterly gusts of 20-30 kt on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters through
Saturday evening. Small Craft Advisory criteria winds continue
through Sunday morning, with the current advisory likely being
extended. Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30
knots are expected tonight, with winds turning more northerly
tomorrow, and then northwesterly tomorrow night.

Winds diminish on Sunday, with sub-SCA winds expected. Winds
will be out of the northwest, blowing 5 to 10 knots.

South winds will gradually increase Monday and Monday night,
potentially nearing advisory conditions along the bay Monday night.
Stronger winds will arrive behind a cold front crossing early
Tuesday. SCAs are likely, and gusts could be near gale force.
Advisory conditions will likely continue into Wednesday behind a
secondary front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KJP
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KJP