Hampton, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

847
FXUS61 KAKQ 150028
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
828 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving low pressure brings continued unsettled conditions
this evening. Conditions turn warm, with summerlike heat and
humidity Friday and Saturday, and mainly afternoon and evening
showers and storms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 825 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A Flood Watch remains in effect along the I-64 corridor from
  Hampton Roads, Middle Peninsula, and Louisa/Fluvanna County
  for this evening.

- Showers and storms continue through this evening, mainly for
  the eastern half of the area.

Latest weather analysis shows weak low pressure over the
Piedmont. Near the Florida Keys, high pressure begins to build.
Showers and storms have impacted most of the area aside from the
Eastern Shore this evening. Additional severe weather is not
expected but some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will
continue for the eastern half of the area.

Tonight, the storms and showers will continue to weaken and
move out of the area. Patchy fog is possible again as winds calm
down and moisture lingers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible Thursday
afternoon/evening.

- Temperatures trend warmer, with a summer-like feel on Friday.

Upper air ridging will try to push any remnants of the low pressure
that has influenced the region for the last few days. However,
lingering moisture and instability keep isolated to scattered
showers and storms a possibility on Thursday. Decent levels of
instability from the warm temperatures and moisture, along with good
shear values would support a few storms becoming severe. The
limiting factor will be storm development as rising heights will
deter storms from forming. SPC has the majority of the region in a
marginal risk (level 1/5) for Thursday with the potential for
damaging wind and severe hail as the primary threats. Overall, a
lower amount of coverage is expected compared than today.

Precipitation chances on Friday remain less than Thursday as a
shortwave trough moves through the region as a low pressure system
sets up near the Great Lakes and an associated cold front approaches
the region. A few showers are possible, mainly in the northern half
of the CWA, Friday afternoon.

As upper heights rise over the area and SW flow continues,
temperatures will also increase. Thursday`s high will be in the mid
80s (lower 80s for the Eastern Shore). Friday will be slightly
warmer with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat indices will reach the mid
90s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

The other story will be the briefly building heat for Friday
into the weekend. SW flow will lift a warm front through the
area on Friday morning. The incoming upper ridging, SW flow,
and resultant rising heights should yield highs well into the
80s to low 90s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to ~70 should yield
max heat index values well into the 90s over much of the region.
Mild with lows in the 60s to near 70 Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warm and humid Saturday with isolated to scattered showers
possible.

- Drying out Sunday into the early half of next week as high
pressure returns.

A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will continue its trek
eastward. An associated cold front will move through the area late
Saturday. Before the cooler air reaches the region, the warm air
behind the warm front will result in similar high temperatures as
Friday (in the upper 80s). Dewpoints will be slightly cooler in the
upper 60s, which will have an apparent temperature slightly cooler
than Friday (in the lower to mid 90s), although the day will still
feel summer-like with the humidity. Once that front reaches the
area, isolated to scattered showers are possible, but the front
appears to be rather weak, so confidence is not high at this time.
Behind the front, temperatures return back to normal for this time
of year as well as drier days for the mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 825 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail at the main TAF sites early this evening
but MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to move into the area this
evening and linger overnight. Showers and storms will remain a
possibility at ORF and ECG through 10-11pm before the bulk of
the precip moves offshore. Less confident that SBY sees much in
the way of thunder late tonight but will include a PROB30 group
as some of the high res guidance shows some lingering convection
moving in after 06z. Fog and low stratus should mix out quickly
after 12z Thursday. Additional storms are possible Thursday
afternoon as flow aloft becomes NW and instability and shear
increase. Low confidence in timing and coverage so have only
included low probs at RIC for now.

Outlook: Additional showers and storms are expected both
Thursday evening and Friday. Predominate VFR conditions return
over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 205 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories linger across the coastal waters today for
elevated seas.

- Calmer across the marine area for the remainder of the week,
outside of daily showers and storms.

Elevated seas are lingering across the local coastal waters this
afternoon with ~5ft S of Cape Charles and 5-7ft N. The SCA for
the southern coastal waters did have to be extended until 4pm.
SCAs for northern coastal waters will continue into tonight.
Winds this afternoon are 5-10kt out of the SE. There will be
the threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Some storms may become strong to severe and be capable
of producing strong damaging winds. Expect seas to gradually
subside through the night, reaching 3-4ft across the south and
4-5ft across the north by late tonight. SCAs should be allowed
to drop off later tonight. Seas will be 3-4ft through Friday,
then 2-3ft for the weekend. Winds will turn to the S tonight,
remaining at 5-10kt.

Outside of any storms, winds look to remain rather benign through
the remainder of the week. There may be brief period of slightly
elevated but still sub-SCA winds Saturday night, especially across
the lower Bay, but confidence is low for now. Daily shower and storm
threats persist.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The high rainfall amounts yesterday in the VA mountains is
making its way down the James River. The Rivanna River at
Palmyra gauge reached minor flood stage last night and a Flood
Warning will remain in effect through late tonight. Along the
James River, the Cartersville, Richmond-Westham, and Richmond
Locks gauges will reach minor flood stage this afternoon and
evening as water continues to move towards the bay. Flood
Warnings will go into effect in conjunction with the minor
flooding.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-062-064-
     069-081>086-089-090-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...KMC/RHR
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...RHR/MRD
MARINE...AC/JKP
HYDROLOGY...