Chesapeake, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

079
FXUS61 KAKQ 230815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
315 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low moves offshore today with one more day of gusty
winds. High pressure moves in with a warmup expected for the first
half of next week. Unsettled weather returns late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages...

- A few light showers over the Eastern Shore taper off over the
  next couple of hours.

- NW winds gust to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the
  coast today.

- Patchy frost is possible tonight.

Early morning sfc analysis depicts a double barrel low off the Mid
Atlantic and New England coast with a few light showers across the
MD Eastern Shore. Expect these showers to move offshore over the
next couple of hours with clouds diminishing through sunrise. Temps
as of 210 AM ranged from the low-mid 40s with W winds occasionally
gusting around 20 mph. Winds may diminish just prior to sunrise with
enough decoupling for morning lows in the upper 30s to around 40F
for most (warmer along the coast).

The upper level low becomes stacked with the sfc low later today
before moving NE off the New England coast. As the W limb of the
upper level feature moves E across the FA today, it should allow for
enough forcing for at least SCT mid level cloud cover with partly
sunny conditions expected. Highs today are expected to be warmer
with temps in the upper 50s for most (coolest across the Eastern
Shore). Additionally, the pressure gradient between the low pressure
off the coast and high pressure across the N Gulf of Mexico remains
tight over the area today. This will allow for one more day of gusty
NW winds with gusts to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the
coast possible. The pressure gradient begins to slacken overnight as
high pressure builds in with winds becoming light inland and clouds
clearing. As such, lows tonight are expected to be cooler with temps
in the mid-upper 30s inland and lower 40s along the coast.
Additionally, patchy frost is possible across portions of SE VA/NE
NC which are still in the Frost/Freeze program. However, temps look
to be marginal (mid 30s) with some wind potentially persisting into
the night (outside of sheltered areas). Between the uncertainty with
temps and the same areas dropping to around freezing Fri morning
(several degrees colder than temps tonight), will hold off on any
potential Frost Advisories for now and let the day shift
reevaluate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages...

- A warmup is expected early this week.

High pressure centered over the Southeast moves offshore by Mon
underneath a ridge aloft. As such, a warming trend is expected.
Highs in the upper 50s NE to mid 60s S Sun (most in the lower 60s)
and upper 60s (locally near 70F) Mon are expected. Lows also warm
from the mid-upper 30s inland and low-mid 40s along the coast Sun
night to the mid 40s to around 50F Mon night. Given high pressure
over the area, dry weather is expected with mostly sunny skies on
Sun and increasing cloud cover Mon into Mon night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Warm temperatures are expected early next week.

- A cold front moves through Tuesday with cooler weather returning.

- An unsettled pattern develops by late week with rain likely Thursday
  into Friday.

An upper level trough and surface low move across the Great Lakes on
Tue with a trailing cold front moving across the area. Given the
forcing displaced well to the N of the local area, confidence in
showers late Mon night into Tue is low. As such have only a slight
chance (15-20% PoPs) for a few isolated showers during this time.
The cold front will allow for cooler weather with highs in the 60s
to near 70F Tue dropping into the 50s on Wed.

An unsettled pattern develops for late week with models continuing
to show the potential for an area of low pressure impacting the area
around Thanksgiving into Fri. Confidence in timing, track, and
intensity remains low. However, the general timing looks to be
Thanksgiving into Friday. For now, have 50-55% PoPs across the area.
The EPS and GEFS mean QPF is generally 0.5-0.7" with a ~50% chance
for at least 0.5" of rain. Rain moves out Fri with cooler weather
arriving Sat. In fact, the NBM has lows in the upper 20s to lower
30s Fri night and highs Sat only in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Saturday...

MVFR CIGs remain possible near SBY until around 8-9z with a few
light showers possible mainly E of the terminal. Any rain moves
offshore by 9z with clouds continuing to diminish. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 6z taf period
with SCT mid level clouds expected by the afternoon. Clouds
clear tonight. W winds remain ~10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt
through mid morning before becoming NW and increasing to ~15 kt
with gusts up to 20-25 kt from mid-late morning through the
afternoon. Winds diminish to ~5 kt inland and 5-10 kt along the
coast tonight as high pressure builds in.

Outlook: Mainly dry conditions continue into mid week, though
there is a low chance of a few showers Monday night into early
Tuesday with a cold front passage.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings will be replaced by Small Craft Advisories later this
  morning as winds begin to diminish.

- Benign marine conditions return Sunday and continue into early next
  week.

Early this morning, a strong upper trough remains over the Eastern
US. Meanwhile, low pressure is located off the northeast US coast.
Winds still remain gusty this morning, but have started to diminish
compared to earlier tonight. Winds are generally out of the WNW,
ranging from 20 to 30 knots, with gusts of 30 to 40 knots. Across
the rivers, winds are generally running around 15 to 25 knots. Seas
range from 4 to 7 feet. Gale Warnings have been replaced by Small
Craft Advisories across the upper rivers and will likely be replaced
with before the 7 AM update for the Lower James and Currituck Sound.
For the remainder of the waters, the Gale Warnings continue until 10
AM.

Winds continue to diminish later this morning through today as low
pressure pulls further to the NE and high pressure builds into the
local area. However, it will still remain breezy with SCA conditions
lingering into tonight and early Sunday. Calmer conditions then
return by Sunday afternoon into early next week. A cold front likely
crosses the waters Tuesday, bringing another period of elevated
winds/seas/SCA conditions.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ633-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB