Chesapeake, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

146
FXUS61 KAKQ 112112
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
512 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rainfall and unsettled conditions into tonight.
Dreary conditions linger through much of Saturday with an upper
low remaining over the area. High pressure gradually builds
back into the area Sunday into early next week bringing a
warming trend. A series of cold fronts likely cross the region
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Heavier rainfall shifts to the northern half of the area late this
  afternoon into the evening.

- Isolated strong storms remain a possibility from Hampton Roads
  southward over the next hour or two before moving offshore.

Slowly strengthening low pressure is noted over eastern NC/southeast
VA this afternoon. Ahead of the low center, some shallow convection
has managed to form despite meager instability. However, kinematics
are quite favorable for rotating storms and a few showers have shown
weak rotation late this afternoon. Not much of a severe threat given
the lack of instability but gusty winds and perhaps some sub-severe
hail remain possible for the next hour or two from Hampton Roads
southward into NC. So far today, rainfall totals have been on the
order of 0.5-1.5" generally along and east of the I-85 corridor to
Wakefield and NE into Williamsburg, Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex
and Lancaster counties. Outside of this axis, totals have generally
been in the 0.25-0.5" range. Widespread moderate to locally heavy
rainfall will continue for the northern half of the area through the
remainder of the afternoon and through much of the evening before
tapering off late tonight. Mostly cloudy skies will linger over the
area tonight with lows in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures and cloudy skies continue on Saturday.

- Temperatures gradually rebound Sunday.

Upper low will linger over the area on Saturday as the surface low
slowly pulls away to the northeast. Cloudy skies with light
rain/drizzle will be possible, especially over the northeastern half
of the area. QPF will be very light with only a few hundredths
expected (at most). Clouds will keep temperatures well below
seasonal norms with highs ranging from the mid/upper 50s S and SW to
the upper 40s for the MD Eastern Shore. Any lingering drizzle or
light rain will become confined to coastal areas and the Eastern
Shore by Saturday night with lows generally in the low 40s.

Improving conditions are expected Sunday as the upper low moves
offshore and high pressure builds into the region from the SW. Skies
will clear from SW to NE through the morning hours with afternoon
high temps expected to range from mid 60s SW (where more sun is
expected) to the upper 50s and low 60s for the NE portion of the
area. Partly cloudy Sunday night with more clouds favored over the
north. Low temps generally in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A warmup is expected early next week ahead of a cold frontal
  passage.

- Dry and cooler conditions return Wednesday and Thursday.

A warmup is expected Monday and Tuesday as a ridge briefly builds
over the area before sliding offshore. Temps warm into the mid-upper
70s Monday and upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday. A series of cold fronts
push through starting Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday with
cooler temps arriving by midweek. Moisture will be limited with the
first front but did add some chance/slight chance PoPs to the
forecast Tuesday afternoon/evening. Breezy W winds are expected
Tuesday afternoon with winds gusting to 20-30 mph. Temps cool by mid
week with highs in the upper 50s NE to mid-upper 60s S Wednesday and
60s Thursday. Lows fall back into the upper 30s (locally mid 30s
possible) Wednesday night, however, confidence is low at this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Widespread IFR conditions continue this afternoon with heavy
rainfall beginning to shift into the northern half of the area.
Some improvement is noted across the SE terminals where some
convection has managed to form despite weak instability. These
storms will move offshore prior to 00z with just steadier
rainfall expected to continue this evening. By late tonight,
rains should taper off but drizzle and BR will linger well into
Saturday. Winds will be quite chaotic over the next few hours
as surface low pressure lifts NE across the area. Expect IFR
conditions to prevail tonight at all but ECG where low-end MVFR
is forecast. IFR will slowly give way to MVFR CIGs late in the
period.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely to continue into
Saturday afternoon as an upper level low lingers across the area
through this weekend, allowing for unsettled weather and
occasional showers to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 510 PM EST Friday...

- Small Craft Advisories in effect for all coastal waters,
  Chesapeake Bay, and the rivers through Saturday night.

- Small Craft Advisories will likely need extended into Sunday as
  seas remain elevated.

Surface low pressure is located over NE NC this afternoon. Winds
remain onshore 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt for the VA and MD
water. The surface low pressure is keeping winds lower off the NC
coast. In conjunction, SCAs are in effect for the VA, NC, and
MD coastal waters along with the Bay, as winds are at marginal
wind SCA criteria in the Bay and elevate seas in the coastal
waters. Latest buoy obs show seas have increased to 5 to 7 ft
in the coastal waters with the onshore winds with 2 to 3 ft
waves in the Bay. As the low moves offshore, winds will shift to
be out of the NW and gradually increase overnight, primarily in
the Bay and MD coastal waters. SCAs for the rivers will go into
effect tonight as the winds increase. Waves will additionally
increase tonight to 6 to 8 ft in the northern coastal waters.

As the pressure gradient increases behind the low pressure system,
winds will likely be the strongest in the early morning hours on
Saturday in the Bay at 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt out of the
NW. Elevated winds will continue through Saturday for the waters
currently in Small Craft Advisories. Extensions for the SCAs will
likely be needed into Sunday as winds gradually begin to decrease
but waves remain elevated.

High pressure will build into the region Sunday and Monday with
benign marine conditions likely behind this round of SCAs. Another
cold front could move through the area on Tuesday with the potential
for elevated seas and winds.



&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...AJB/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...HET/KMC