Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

409
FXUS61 KLWX 141417
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1017 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some minor tweaks to timing and coverage of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Before the rain arrives,
expect a record warm October Day ahead with highs for most in the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Record warmth expected today with a few strong
  thunderstorms possible west of the Blue Ridge later this
  afternoon and evening.

- 2) Widespread frost/freeze likely this weekend, especially
  west of I-95.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warmth expected today with a few strong
thunderstorms possible west of the Blue Ridge later this afternoon
and evening.

It`s already a warm start this morning with widespread upper 60s and
mid 70s across the region. Mountain locations are even hovering in
the mid to upper 60s as we sit in the heart of the warm sector. In
addition to the warmth, the radar has been fairly active north of
MD/PA border and back across the Laurel Highlands. A few sprinkles
were also noted south of Dulles, VA and over toward Fairfax,
VA/Baltimore,MD from the puffy altocumulus that fills the skies
this morning ,especially along and north of I-66/US-50. Further
west is a caravan of thunderstorm complexes that extend from
the Ohio River Valley back into the Lower Mississippi River
Valley and southern Plains region. These complexes of storms
will become the focus for afternoon and evening convection later
today as the front drops south from the Great Lakes and Ohio
River Valley.

Mid-level ridging will continue to slowly buckle over the Deep South
later today allowing a cold front to drop south and east from the
Ohio River Valley. Ahead of the boundary will be near record to
record breaking warmth with widespread highs in the mid to upper 80s
(70s mountains). A few locations south and east of the DC metro
could punch 90 degrees given the slower progression of the front and
increase in cloud cover. Westerly to southwesterly downslope will
also further assist heating east of the mountains. See climate
section below for a list of today`s record highs.

As for the front, timing has slowed a bit with the highest
concentration of thunderstorm activity remaining west of US-15 and
north of US-48/I-66/US-50. Current timing puts convection over the
western MD and eastern WV mountains between 20-23z/4-7pm before
advancing south and east toward northern VA and the DC/Baltimore
metros around 23-02/7-10pm. CAPE values will hover between 700-900
j/kg with 0-6 km bulk effective shear values around 35-45 kts mainly
north of I-66/US-50. With that said, a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of
5) for severe weather continues for locations west of US-15 and back
into the western MD/eastern WV mountains. The greatest
confidence for organized convection appears to be from
Winchester west to Oakland, MD south toward Franklin and
Moorefield, WV, Elsewhere convection becomes a bit more isolated
with more in the way of showers given the decrease in
instability beyond the diurnal curve. Any storms that do form
will have the capability of damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

The front stalls near/south of the region Thursday morning as high
pressure over southern Ontario wedges down the mountains. This will
return temperatures back into the mid to upper 60s under cloudy
skies and on/off shower chances throughout the entirety of the day.
The front retreats back to the north before washing out over the
northern 2/3rds of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday.
This is due in part to the wedging high pressure system over
southeast Ontario shifting off the southern New England coast
allowing winds to switch back to the southerly direction. The wedge
will erode quickly as a result allowing for a quick spike in
temperatures ahead of a stronger front Friday morning into Friday
afternoon.

A powerful cold front begins tracking across the region; the Fall
season`s first true cold front. Gusty showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening (Marginal
Risk (Level 1 out of 5) mainly east of US-15 and toward the
I-95 metros). It will get very breezy Friday afternoon as mid-
level heights quickly fall and the surface pressure gradient
tightens in response to a deepening low tracking to our north.
Peak wind gusts of 35-50 mph are possible in the mountains, and
30-40 mph elsewhere. Wind Advisories may be needed for some
portion of the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge Friday afternoon into
Friday night. Showers and some thunderstorms are expected Friday
afternoon ahead of the front. If thunderstorms can tap into the
increasing winds aloft, there certainly could be a few strong
to severe wind gusts.

A potent upper trough passes through the region Friday night,
bringing a reinforcing cold front that pushes out any lingering
precip.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread frost/freeze likely this weekend,
especially west of I-95.

After such a warm start to the fall, the cold truly will come
crashing in. Temps plummet to the 40s, with low to mid 30s in
the mountains, come sunrise Saturday. Wind chills in 20s for the
Alleghenies, and 30s to low 40s elsewhere.

NW`ly winds will gradually decrease Sat, with temps only forecast to
climb into the 50s (40s mtns). High pressure progged to build
overhead Sat night, resulting in clear skies and calm winds within
what will already be a cool background environment. This will be a
near ideal situation for radiational cooling. With Tds forecast to
be in the 20s and lower 30s, it appears as though a freeze may be
possible for many locations, especially to the west of the Blue
Ridge. At least frost appears likely just about everywhere, and
freezing temps could encompass the entire area outside of the
immediate downtown areas in DC/Baltimore if cooler solutions were to
verify. Frost/Freeze headlines will likely eventually be needed for
much of the forecast area. Would not be surprised if temps
significantly go lower than guidance given this very favorable
pattern. For context, the mountains typically have their first
freeze Oct 11, Shenandoah Valley area Oct 21, and east of Blue Ridge
Nov 1.

Quiet weather conditions and a gradual warming trend in temperatures
are expected for Sunday and Monday as high pressure moves offshore.
High on Sunday and Monday will generally be in the 60s (50s
mountains), with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR conditions will continue at most of the terminals through at
least 20-21z/4-5pm. Skies will trend mostly sunny to partly cloudy
with SCT-BKN CIGS generally above 050-090 kft. A spotty shower
cannot be ruled out before 20z mainly along and north of I-70
although coverage will be fairly sparse given the shallow moisture
in the altocumulus deck. Increased shower coverage and perhaps
a few thunderstorms arrive later this afternoon between
20-03z/4-11pm. Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to areas
west of MRB with showers further east into the corridor
terminals. Storms will enter areas west of CBE between
20-22z/4-6pm before advancing toward MRB/IAD/BWI between
22z-01z/6-9pm. Precipitation may not even make it to CHO given
the orientation of the boundary and timing. Drizzle will likely
impact this area when the front stalls Thursday morning. As a
result, expect periods of sub-VFR conditions this afternoon
through Thursday afternoon. MVFR cigs and vsbys are likely at
most terminals with a brief window for IFR conditions Thursday
morning into early Thursday afternoon especially in locations
west of I-95 corridor terminals as the wedge settles in. Winds
today will remain out of the west and southwest at 5-15 kts with
occasional gusts up to 20 kts at times. Winds switch to the
north and northwest tonight into Thursday morning before turning
southerly late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

Conditions will improve as result with the wedge eroding in
southerly flow Thursday afternoon and night ahead of the next strong
cold front/upper level trough set to cross Friday. The strong cold
front moves through Friday afternoon into Friday night. A noticeable
increase in winds is expected along with a squeegee line of gusty
showers and thunderstorms. Southwest winds gust 25-30 knots Friday
afternoon, then turn northwest behind the front Friday night.

Continued VFR conditions are expected on Saturday, with winds
remaining out of the northwest, but gradually decreasing in
magnitude throughout the day. VFR Sunday with winds becoming light
out of the south. Some frost is possible Sunday morning,
especially west of the I-95 terminals.


&&

.MARINE...
Favorable marine conditions today as winds remain around 10-15
knots. A cold front sags south into the region tonight where it
stalls. An initial surge of northerly winds could produce SCA
conditions over the waters tonight into Thursday morning. Winds
begin to veer east, then southeast Thursday night. SCA conditions
are expected to develop across all the waters by Friday morning,
then Gale conditions are possible Friday afternoon into
Saturday. Winds gradually decrease through the day, then become
light out of the south on Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
South winds today could result in elevated water levels at sensitive
locations along the Chesapeake Bay. Several stations are forecast to
reach Action Stage, with Annapolis and Havre de Grace forecast to be
closer to minor tidal flooding during high tide this evening. A
surge of offshore (north) winds tonight will drop water levels.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are the record highs for today, October 14.

                            Oct 14
Climate Site                Record High
Washington-National (DCA)   87F (1975)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)     86F (1975)
Baltimore (BWI)             86F (1975)
Annapolis (NAK)85F (1975)
Hagerstown (HGR)84F (1975)
Charlottesville (CHO)94F (1954)
Martinsburg, WV (MRB)       90F (1928)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CPB/KRR/EST
AVIATION...CPB/KRR/EST
MARINE...CPB/KRR