Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

468
FXUS61 KLWX 030150
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
850 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes in the recent forecast update. Main changes to the
discussion are to update the aviation section, as well as the
current conditions and updates on the progress of the ongoing
winter weather event.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mixed wintry precipitation to cause impacts to travel tonight
  through Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures warm up by the end of the week and into the
  weekend with daily precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mixed wintry precipitation to cause impacts to
travel tonight through Tuesday morning.

Some lingering light snow showers continue roughly south of
I-66 and east of US-29. This is the first wave, and will come to
an end over the next couple of hours for those areas. The lull
won`t last long though, as a warm front begins to lift towards
the region and bring more precipitation as a result.

The leading edge may still be snow, but precipitation type will
change over to sleet and primarily freezing rain as time goes
on due to strong warm advection aloft. This is already evident
on radar along the I-64 corridor, as well as the warm nose
evident in the 00z IAD RAOB. While a few tenths of an inch of
snow/sleet accumulation are added to the storm total here, the
primary impact will be from freezing rain. Surface temperatures
will be increasingly marginal (and perhaps mostly above freezing)
with lower elevations and south/eastward extent. The main challenge
for tonight is how much temperatures drop due to evaporative
cooling (i.e. in-situ damming) and how much fzra is able to
accumulate. Marginal temperatures and moderate intensity precip
rates argue against significant icing. Continue to favor
climatology for ice accretion with icing remaining west of I-95.
So, no changes to the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory at this
time.

After 12Z Tue, strong pressure falls should help temperatures
come up with freezing rain ending by late morning. Some plain
rain continues through around noon, but there should be a lull
yet again thereafter.

Another wave of rain may move across the area Tuesday night, but
temperatures may largely hold steady in the 40s for most areas.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures warm up by the end of the week and into
the weekend with daily precipitation chances.

Shortwave troughing tracks over the forecast area Friday with upper
level ridging building over the east coast through the weekend. At
the surface, high pressure shifts off shore as return flow ushers in
moisture and warmer temperatures. High temperatures in the mid 60s
to upper 70s are expected each day with overnight lows in the 50s to
low 60s.

In addition to warmer temperatures, multiple waves of low pressure
track along a stalled frontal boundary across the mid-atlantic. This
yields increased precipitation chances across the northern portions
of the forecast area. With ongoing moderate drought conditions
across the forecast area, rainfall is expected to be beneficial at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Light snow has come to an end at all TAF sites at this time,
leaving only a few lingering flurries/sleet pellets down near
CHO.

Precipitation will redevelop later tonight with mixed precip
expected, then turning to all rain by mid-morning on Tuesday.
IFR to LIFR conditions persist all day due to very low CIGs.

South winds blow 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots possible on
Thursday. Southwest winds Friday morning shift to southeast in the
afternoon, blowing 5 to 10 knots during the day. Su-VFR conditions
are possible across all terminals due to precipitation chances
except for CHO, where dry conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will eventually become southerly Tuesday as a warm front
lifts through the region, although advisory conditions are
looking less likely Tuesday night. Depending on how the front
wavers, light south to east winds are forecast Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

South winds on Thursday shift to southwest Friday morning.
Winds become light Friday evening out of the southeast. Winds
are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria both
days.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ003-004-
     501-502.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     MDZ005-006-507.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ503>506.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ509.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ510.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ040-051-
     053-501-502-505-506-526-527.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ027>031-
     507.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ025-026-
     037>039-050-503-504-508.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ051>053-
     504.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ050-055.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ503.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ501-502-
     505-506.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/LFR/CJL
AVIATION...AVS/LFR/CJL
MARINE...AVS/LFR/CJL