Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

725
FXUS61 KLWX 050232
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
932 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have increased precipitation chances a bit toward the Shenandoah
Valley given current radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Above normal warmth through Friday with some rain across
  the region.

- 2) Cooler, but seasonable temperatures and Appalachian rain
  showers expected this weekend as an upper disturbance moves to
  the north and adjacent to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal warmth through Friday with some
rain across the region.

A large upper trough over the western Great Lakes will steadily move
north and east into southern Ontario through the end of this week. A
leading shortwave ahead of it is set to move across the central
Alleghenies and Mid-Atlantic tonight into Thursday. This has
begun to produce scattered light showers, generally from the
Shenandoah Valley westward. Low-level profiles have begun to
saturate so some of this likely has begun to reach the ground. A
few tenths of an inch of rain are forecast along and west of
the Blue Ridge, which won`t be much but still something after
over two weeks of no rain. Those east of the Blue Ridge likely
see less rain due to lingering low- level dry air and loss of
upper level support as the shortwave quickly moves east of the
area. Aside from a few showers in the afternoon, most locations
are going to be dry through Thursday evening.

Conditions look favorable for a band of heavier rain to redevelop
just east of I-95 Thursday night into Friday. This is due to the
interaction of the surface high over the western Atlantic and the
approaching strong upper trough from the OH Valley. A narrow band of
frontogenesis likely develops where low-level convergence is
maximized near the right-entrance region of a strengthening jet
streak, and aided by modest moisture advection. The current forecast
has around 1-1.25" of rain over southern Maryland, though some of
the higher end ensemble guidance indicate upwards of 2" is possible.
Not expecting any flood concerns due to the location of where this
is going to occur and lack of precip in recent weeks. There is going
to be a sharp cutoff in rain amounts to the west of the main band
where rain is light and passive.

As the upper trough swings through the region Friday night, the main
mid-level vorticity associated with it cuts off and that takes about
another 24-36 hours to move east over the Atlantic. While conditions
dry out for most of us by Friday evening, there will be upslope rain
showers in the Alleghenies through Saturday morning.

Above normal temperatures continue through Friday with highs reach
the 70s each day. Cloud cover and some cold advection Friday keep
highs a bit cooler, but only in the upper 60s to around 70F. A
colder airmass finally sweeps in behind the FROPA Friday night as
lows drop to the upper 30s to upper 40s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler, but seasonable temperatures and Appalachian
rain showers expected this weekend as an upper disturbance moves to
the north and adjacent to the region.

An upper level disturbance will follow a low pressure system to the
northeast and east of the region Saturday into Sunday. This
disturbance will bring cloud cover to the western and northern areas
as well as rain showers in the Appalachians Saturday. Otherwise, dry
conditions with a gusty breeze is anticipated throughout the weekend
and into the early part of next week. There should be less wind
Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler than recent days but should be
close to seasonable Saturday through Tuesday. Highs should be in the
lower to middle 60s with cooler temperatures in the mountains
Saturday through Tuesday. Lows mid 30s to lower 40s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions today, then a cold front approaches the region from
the OH Valley. This system is expected to bring a period of MVFR to
possibly IFR CIGs Thursday from the early morning hours to around
noon. The guidance remains too aggressive with low CIGs, so
opted to maintain BKN010-020 in the TAFs. It is possible IFR
CIGs develop for brief periods around daybreak Thursday as
showers move through. During this time there will be showers
moving across the area, but precip is forecast to be light and
not significantly impact VSBYs. Conditions improve Thursday
afternoon as VFR conditions return.

Another round of low clouds and fog is possible Thursday night into
Friday morning. Most of the heavier rain Friday is going to be east
of the I-95 terminals, but cannot rule out restrictions from low
clouds and reduced VSBY. A cold front sweeps through Friday night,
which should clear out any lingering low clouds.

VFR conditions Saturday through Sunday night. Winds northwest 10 to
20 knots gusts 25 knots generally in the period.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is forecast to move across the local waters tonight
through Friday. Ahead of the front southerly channeling will cause
in increase in winds over most of the waters. Small Craft Advisories
go into effect late this evening and continue through Thursday
afternoon. Winds abate Thursday night into Friday, then the cold
front sweeps through Friday evening. SCA conditions are likely in
wake of the front Friday night.

Small Craft Advisories likely Saturday and Sunday. Small Craft
possible Monday. Winds northwest 15 to 20 knots gusts 25 to 30
knots.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Current tidal anomalies are running around 0.50 to 0.75 feet.
Expect these to gradually rise in response to southerly flow
ahead of a cold front. This will bring a few locations into
Action stage through Thursday afternoon before water levels drop
behind the departing cold front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Thursday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Thursday for ANZ530>533-
     535-539>541.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KLW/KRR
AVIATION...KLW/KRR
MARINE...KLW/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO