Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

214
FXUS61 KLWX 031402
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1002 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dense Fog Advisories have been cancelled for portions of the western
MD mountains. Small Craft Advisories extended over portions of
the bay tonight due to southerly channeling.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
 1) Near record temperatures and mostly dry conditions through
Saturday.

 2) A strong cold front moves through on Sunday, bringing widespread
rainfall, falling temperatures, and breezy conditions.

 3) Surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic through
midweek with cooler temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record temperatures and mostly dry conditions through
Saturday.

A well established CAD wedge remains entrenched east of the
Alleghenies this morning with low clouds and areas of dense fog. The
low clouds and fog should gradually lift between
15-18z/10am-2pm this afternoon as south to southwesterly flow
increases.

Synoptically, not too much of a change in the near term period.
Still monitoring the progression of a stalled boundary set to lift
back to the north as a warm front later today and cold front back
toward the Ohio River Valley. With the warm front lifting back to
the north today expect low clouds and fog to erode heading into
midday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected this
afternoon into the evening hours. Low clouds will likely hang on the
longest across central/northeast MD where the CAD wedge will take
the longest to erode. Deep mixing south of the boundary (i.e along
and south of the Potomac River) will allow temperatures to surge
into the low to mid 80s while locations further north and east (i.e
northeast MD and the higher elevations of western MD) will see highs
in the 70s due to the residual CAD wedge/afternoon scattered/broken
cloud cover. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may
impact areas along and west of the Blue Ridge this afternoon as the
front lifts back to the north. Some showers have been noted over
western PA, north-central WV, and far western MD this morning as the
front sits nearby. Expect this area to have the greatest confidence
for additional showers and perhaps an isolated strong to severe t-
storm this afternoon given the presiding front and orographic lift
from the terrain. Any convection will gradually wane after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Light winds continue
this morning with a gradual increase this afternoon out of the
south and southwest with gusts up to 25 mph.

Mild temperatures will continue tonight with widespread lows holding
in the upper 50s and low to mid 60s. We may even challenge a few
record high minimum temperatures at some sites (see Climate section
below for details). The warmth continues Saturday with highs
likely to push well into the 80s areawide. Mid to upper 80s
cannot be ruled out over the metros and across the central VA
Piedmont due in part to the lack of low cloud cover compared to
what we are seeing this morning. Such temperatures would
challenge record high temperatures for the date (see Climate
section). A few showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
once again during the afternoon and evening hours, especially
west of the Blue Ridge. Once again coverage should be low given
the warm front to the north over central PA and cold front
still back across the eastern part of the Ohio River Valley. Any
storms that do get going could be strong to severe given the
increased instability and subtle shear across the region. SPC
continues a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for locations along
and west of I-81 with damaging winds and small hail as the
primary threats.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front moves through on Sunday, bringing
widespread rainfall and dropping temperatures.

A deep area of low pressure will track well to our north across
northern Ontario on Sunday, while upper troughing digs southward
over the Great Lakes. This system will drive a strong cold front
southeastward toward the area. A period of steady rainfall
appears likely Sunday morning in advance of the cold front, with
most locations receiving somewhere in the neighborhood of a
quarter to a half of an inch of rain. The morning timing of the
frontal passage and stratiform rain out ahead of the front
should help to limit destabilization and the resultant threat
for thunderstorms. The front should clear the forecast area by
mid-afternoon. Winds will shift to out of the west to northwest
behind the front, and skies should gradually clear out from west
to east. Much cooler air will start to filter in by Sunday
night, as temperatures drop back into the 30s and 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic through
midweek with cooler temperatures expected.

In the wake of a cold front, temperatures on Monday will be 10
degrees colder when compared to Sunday. There will be a large spread
in high temperatures as cooler air moves in with highs ranging from
the upper 40s in the Alleghenies to the mid 60s in central
Virginia. Surface high pressure originating from Canada moves
overhead through midweek, bringing continued below normal
temperatures. By Wednesday, high temperatures will be in the 50s
for most with higher elevations in the 40s. Overall, dry
conditions and below normal temperatures are expected through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR to LIFR conditions are ongoing at the terminals east of the
Alleghenies this morning due to low clouds and areas of dense
fog. Conditions should gradually improve between 15-18z/11am-2pm as
deep mixing ensues under increased south to southwesterly flow.
A warm front will lift northward through midday, clearing out
the low clouds and fog from south to north. Conditions should
improve back to VFR at all terminals by early afternoon after
18z/2pm. South to southwesterly winds will gust to around 20
knots this afternoon. VFR conditions continue through Saturday,
with gusts to around 20 knots out of the south possible again
during the afternoon hours. A stray shower can`t be ruled out
either afternoon, especially near MRB, but chances favor all
terminals remaining dry. That will change on Sunday as a strong
cold front approaches from the northwest. Rain, and sub-VFR
conditions may be possible for a few hours Sunday morning. Winds
shift to out of the west to northwest and conditions improve
back to VFR Sunday afternoon.

Northwest winds are expected across all terminals Monday and Tuesday
in the wake of a cold front. Winds blow 5 to 10 knots each day with
gusts between 15 and 20 knots in the afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are easterly over the waters early this morning, but they
will turn south to southwesterly later this morning as a warm
front lifts northward. SCAs are in effect within south to
southwesterly flow later this afternoon into this evening, with
gusts to around 20 kt expected. Winds remain southerly tonight
through Sunday morning, with additional SCAs likely Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning. Winds shift to out of the
west, and then eventually northwest behind a cold front on
Sunday. Northwesterly flow continues through the day Monday,
with gusts potentially nearing low-end SCA levels Monday
morning.

Northwest winds gust up to 20 knots Monday morning with Small Craft
Advisories likely. Winds diminish in the afternoon through the
overnight before northwest winds near Small Craft Advisory criteria
Tuesday afternoon. Winds increase further Tuesday night with
additional Advisories likely.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are slowly increasing within southerly flow, and will
remain slightly elevated through Saturday. A few locations may
reach Action stage over the next few tide cycles, but no
flooding is expected. Anomalies will decrease later Sunday into
early next week as winds turn northwesterly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures of 15 to 25 degrees above average are forecast for
today and Saturday. Below is a list of record daily
temperatures for our regional climate sites.

Record Daily Highs for April 3
Site High/Year(s) Set
DCA 87/1963
BWI 88/1963
IAD 86/1981
DMH 89/1963
NAK 84/1912
HGR 85/1963
MRB 88/1963
CHO 88/1963

Record Daily High and Warm Lows for April 4
Site High/Year(s) Set Warm Low/Year(s) Set
DCA85/201166/1981
BWI 86/2011 63/1892
IAD85/201163/1981
DMH 87/201166/2025
NAK83/201160/2025
HGR81/201160/1974
MRB85/201163/1981
CHO88/201164/1974

     Period of Record (POR) context...

.Washington DC area (DCA)...
Weather records for the Washington DC area have been recorded
at what is now Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA)
since 1941. The official weather record consists of that data
back to 1945, and observations taken in downtown Washington from
1871 to 1944. Temperature records for the Washington DC area
extend back to January 1872.

.Baltimore MD area (BWI)...
Weather records for the Baltimore MD area have been recorded at
what is now Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood
Marshall Airport (KBWI) since 1950. The official weather record
consists of that data back to 1950, and observations taken in
downtown Baltimore from 1871 through 1949. Temperature records
for the Baltimore MD area extend back to July 1872.

.Sterling-Dulles Airport VA area (IAD)...
Weather records for the Sterling-Dulles Airport VA area have
been recorded at what is now Washington Dulles International
Airport (KIAD) since 1960. The official record consists solely
of data recorded at the airport.

.Baltimore Downtown MD area (DMH)...
Weather records for the Baltimore Downtown MD area have been
recorded at what is now the Maryland Science Center (KDMH)
since 1999. The official weather record consists of that data
back to 1999, and observations taken in the City of Baltimore
from July 1950 through 1998. Data is missing from June 3 of 2020
through August 14 of 2022 when the observing system had to be
removed due to a large construction project.

.Annapolis MD area (NAK)...
Weather records for the Annapolis MD area have been recorded at
what is now the Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy (KNAK) since
October 11 of 2001. The official weather record consists of that
data back to 2001, and observations that were taken between the
Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy and the Annapolis Police Barracks
from July of 1894 through October 10 of 2001.

.Hagerstown MD area (HGR)....
Weather records for the Hagerstown MD area have been recorded at
what is now Hagerstown Regional Airport (KHGR) since October of
1998. The official weather record consists of that data back to
October of 1998, and observations taken one mile east of
Hagerstown from 1899 through September of 1998.

.Martinsburg WV area (MRB)...
Weather records for the Martinsburg WV area have been recorded
at what is now Eastern West Virginia Regional Airport/Shepherd
Field (KMRB) since 1938. The official weather record consists of
that data back to 1944, and observations taken in downtown
Martinsburg from 1891 through 1943.

.Charlottesville VA area (CHO)...
Weather records for the Charlottesville VA area have been
recorded at what is now Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport (KCHO)
since April 20 of 1961. The official weather record consists of
that data back to April 20 of 1961, and observations taken two
miles west of downtown Charlottesville from 1983 through April
19 of 1961.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ530-535>538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ531>534-539>541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KJP/EST
AVIATION...AVS/KJP/EST
MARINE...AVS/KJP