Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

906
FXUS61 KLWX 101451
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1051 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Havre de Grace until
11am this morning. Marine Weather Statement issued for 20 kt
west to southwest gusts over the lower waters through 12pm.
Monitoring bands of light showers mainly west of I-81 this
morning. The bulk of this activity will decay as it pushes east
of the mountains this morning while remaining along and south of
I-66/US-50 this afternoon and evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A slow moving cold front brings the risk of showers and a
  few thunderstorms to the region through early Friday morning.

- 2) Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue through
  the weekend with drier conditions early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A slow moving cold front brings the risk of shower and a few
thunderstorms to the region through early Friday morning.

Not too much of a change in the current forecast package. Still
monitoring a few pieces of shortwave energy ahead of a slow moving
cold front dropping southward into the region. The front still
remains north of the border in southeast Ontario and looks to drop
south tonight into Friday morning. As a result, expect increased
cloud cover and continued chances for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms, especially heading into the afternoon and evening
hours.

The severe weather threat appears low, but not zero given CAPE
values hovering between 500-1500 j/kg and shear values around 30-40
kts. With a stronger piece of shortwave energy set to kick east out
of WV expect an uptick in thunderstorm chances mainly across central
VA and southern MD this afternoon where instability will be
maximized due to more sunshine. These areas could see clusters of
thunderstorms with gusty winds as the primary threat along with
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Not everyone will see
the rain this afternoon with more scattered to widespread showers
expected later this evening and pre-dawn Friday morning as the front
drops through. Highs today will range from the mid 80s over the
mountains to low 90s over southern MD and central VA (70S
mountains). Lows tonight will fall back into the low to mid 60s with
upper 60s over central VA and southern MD.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms possible on Sunday,
followed by drier conditions early next week.

A weak cold front meanders through the forecast area beginning
Saturday morning into Sunday, resulting in a few possible
thunderstorms in the afternoon into the evening. While chances for
these storms to be severe remain low, a few strong storms with gusty
winds cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, on and off showers continue
throughout the day Saturday and into Sunday as the front moves
through.

Come Monday, upper level ridging starts building over the East Coast
accompanied by surface high pressure overhead. Primarily dry
conditions are expected on Monday, although an isolated rain shower
cannot be ruled out along the western portions of the forecast area
as a cold front tracks across the Great Lakes. Precipitation chances
increase by midweek as another cold front tracks across the forecast
area.

High temperatures will be in the 80s for most (70s mountains) each
day with high humidity values yielding heat indices in the low 90s
for those east of the Blue Ridge. Wednesday will be the warmest day
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices in the upper
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected amongst the terminals through
this evening. Temporary reductions are possible at times this
afternoon and evening due to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Highest confidence for afternoon showers and storms appears to be
from a line south of CBE/MRB to BWI/MTN. Locations further south
toward IAD, DCA and CHO have a better opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms given the placement of shortwave energy rolling
through.Thunderstorm development would likely occur between
20-01z/4-9pm. Coverage will be isolated to scattered with more
scattered to widespread shower activity overnight as the front
swings through. Went with PROB30s to encompass the afternoon
shower and thunderstorms threat with prevailing showers this
evening based on current guidance. Beyond the showers and
thunderstorms, not looking at a whole lot of low clouds nor fog
outside the mountains. Skies will remain between SCT-BKN this
afternoon trending BKN-OVC this evening as the front pushes in.
MAV/MET guidance continues to hold a high likelihood of low
cigs/vsbys mainly west of Blue Ridge heading into Friday
morning. This will be something to monitor in subsequent TAF
cycles. Any temporary restrictions this evening into early
Friday morning will give way to VFR conditions Friday afternoon
as brief dry air moves into the region. A leftover shower or
thunderstorm is possible from KCHO south Friday afternoon and
evening as the front stalls nearby.

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during
the afternoon/evening hours this weekend. This will lead to
temporary reductions amongst the terminals at times otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail. South to southeast winds Saturday will
switch to the west and southwest winds Sunday at less than 15 kts.
Winds turn to the north and northwest Monday and Tuesday as VFR
conditions continue.

&&

.MARINE...
A Marine Weather Statement has been issued for the lower waters of
the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac through 12pm. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are anticipated later this afternoon into tonight. A
few Special Marine Warnings are possible especially south of
Washington DC to Annapolis MD. Winds shift to the west and northwest
today as a cold front crosses, then shift to north and east through
Friday as the front stalls to the south. Winds shift to southerly on
Saturday with southerly channeling yielding Small Craft Advisory
criteria winds in the afternoon.

West winds on Sunday shift to northerly on Monday, remaining below
SCA criteria each day. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are
possible over the waters on Sunday, although SMWs are not
likely.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels remain elevated (0.5 to 1 ft above normal)this morning
at Havre de Grace with a Coastal Flood Advisory through 11am.
More notable water level decreases will occur tonight behind a
cold front, before levels increase again this weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ508.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/EST/SRT
MARINE...KLW/EST/SRT