Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

454
FXUS61 KLWX 051404
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
904 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms may be a bit higher
later today. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for this
afternoon`s high tide at Annapolis. The Small Craft Advisory was
extended until 3 AM for the wider waters off southern Maryland.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Remaining warm with renewed rain chances through Friday.

- 2) Seasonably cool temperatures and mountain rain showers
  this weekend; drying out with high pressure next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining warm with renewed rain chances through
Friday.

Synoptically, a broad upper-level trough over the northern/eastern
Great Lakes will eject northeast into southern Ontario through
Friday. At the surface is a lead shortwave trough/cold front which
looks to cross the area through this afternoon. Most shower
activity was diminishing as of mid morning for the time being.

Latest runs of the RAP, HRRR and RRFS/REFS hint at a bit more
shower and thunderstorm coverage a couple hours earlier east of
the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains by mid to late afternoon.

By tonight, the front stalls somewhere along and east of I-95. The
front will lead to a steadier/heavier slug of rain across areas east
of the Blue Ridge (in particular southern MD/northern neck of VA).
This is due largely in part to a wave of low pressure that will
develop along the front combined with a narrow band of low-level
convergence as a jet streak develops (forces modest moisture
advection) overhead. Current guidance shows good agreement in
regards to the timing and placement of the boundary yielding
rain amounts on the order of 0.75-1.25" across southern MD and
the northern neck of VA. Locally higher totals up to 2" are
possible over extreme southern MD and northern neck of VA given
the track of the low as it pushes through. No flooding is
expected given the 2+ week hiatus of measurable rainfall and
ongoing drought concerns. Locations along and just east of I-95
will see rain amounts between a 0.25-0.50" but the locally 1"+
amounts will be very close. Meanwhile, locations further west
will see less given downsloping effects.

The front and upper-level trough kick offshore Friday evening
into Saturday morning yielding drier conditions. Upslope rain
showers and perhaps a few snowflakes will linger over the
Alleghenies within northwest flow. These rain showers won`t
amount to a whole lot as another wave of energy passes north of
the region.

The big thing to note will be the temperatures. Above normal highs
in the low to mid 70s are expected today with mid 60s and low 70s
Friday. These values cool into the 50s and mid 60s this weekend with
mountain highs only in the 40s. A colder airmass sweeps in behind
the front/trough Friday night as lows drop to the upper 30s to
upper 40s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonably cool temperatures and mountain rain
showers this weekend; drying out with high pressure next week.

The first trough of low pressure and front will depart the area
Saturday morning with another upper-level disturbance set to
pass to the north Saturday and Sunday. This disturbance will
bring upslope showers and perhaps a few flakes to the
Alleghenies with passing clouds further east. Conditions will
remain breezy out of the west and northwest with gusts between
20 to 30 mph. Temperatures will also be noticeably cooler with
highs in the 50s and low 60s Saturday and low to mid 60s Sunday.
Overnight lows will fall back into the 30s and 40s.

A weakened cold front will push across the region Monday morning
with a warm front set to push into the area Tuesday. This will be
followed by a stronger front mid to late week bringing back the
"True Fall" air to the region. Conditions will remain dry
overall as high pressure builds in from the southeastern U.S.
Tuesday through Thursday next week (in a zonal flow pattern
aloft). Highs will range from the low to mid 60s Monday to upper
60s and low 70s Tuesday as the warm front passes through. Highs
will sink back into the 50s and low 60s midweek. Overnight lows
will remain in the 30s and 40s. Winds will decrease midweek
leading to potential frost and freeze conditions toward the I-95
metros where the growing season continues.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pockets of MVFR CIGs are expected this morning as a cold front
pushes into the region. A lull in shower activity with gradually
lifting CIGs is expected this afternoon and evening. VFR to
MVFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening as the
front slowly stalls over/east the I-95 corridor. Winds will
remain out of the south and southwest today at 10 to 15 kts with
gusts up to 20 kts during the late morning and early afternoon
period. Winds will lighten tonight while remaining out of the
west and south at 5 to 10 kts. Highest gusts will be at
terminals near the waters and along the terrain ahead of/behind
the immediate frontal passage. May add PROB30s as confidence in
coverage for showers and a few t-storms is increasing mid
afternoon into the evening east of the Blue Ridge.

Another round of low clouds and rain shower activity is expected
late tonight into Friday afternoon. The heaviest rain looks to be
just east of the I-95 corridor terminals. Even with that said, the
potential for low CIGs and VSBYs remain, especially at terminals
east of a line from MRB to CHO. The front and wave of low
pressure moves offshore late Friday night into Saturday yielding
gradually improving conditions. Winds will transition to the
north and northwest at 5 to 15 kts.

VFR conditions Saturday through Monday. Winds northwest 10 to 20
knots gusts 25 knots generally in the period. A cold front passes
Monday morning with a warm front Tuesday leading to another wind
shift across the region. Remaining VFR through the middle of
next week as high pressure builds to the south.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is set to slowly move across the waters through Friday.
Ahead of the front will be a period of southerly channeling with
gusts 20-25 kts, though may be somewhat sporadic depending on
vertical mixing and channeling effects. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect to encompass this threat through this evening,
and have been extended over the wider waters off southern MD
into the overnight. Winds diminish heading into Friday with the
cold front sweeping through Friday evening. SCA conditions are
likely in the wake of the front Friday night into Saturday.
Widespread rain chances will accompany the front with some
heavier showers and perhaps a few t-storms over the open waters
as low pressure passes overhead tonight into Friday.

Small Craft Advisories are likely Saturday and Sunday, and are
possible on Monday. Winds northwest 15 to 20 knots gusts 25 to
30 knots.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies this morning are running around 1 to 1.5 feet.
Expect these to continue to gradually rise in response to
southerly flow ahead of a cold front. This will bring a few
locations into Action stage through this afternoon before water
levels drop behind the departing cold front. Annapolis appears
on track to hit minor flooding for this afternoon`s high tide,
and Alexandria and Havre de Grace may be close early this
evening as well.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ530>533-535>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/EST
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/EST
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX