Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

020
FXUS61 KLWX 071515
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1015 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dense fog has dissipated west of the Blue Ridge, so the Dense
Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 10 AM. CAD wedge is
holding strong east of the Blue Ridge, will probably take until
mid afternoon to clear most of the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Rain chances continue through Sunday, as multiple fronts
  impact the region. This will be followed by a warming trend
  into next week.

- 2) A strong cold front is likely to push through the region
  midweek, bringing back chances for significant rain followed
  by a sharp drop in temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances continue through Sunday, as multiple
fronts impact the region. This will be followed by a warming
trend into next week.

The Dense Fog Advisory west of the Blue Ridge has ended now that
increasing southerly flow is quickly scouring away the low-level
inversion. The low clouds though could hang around the longest
from Hagerstown to Cumberland, but that too should break by
early afternoon.

East of the Blue Ridge the CAD wedge holds firm, but it is
starting to erode along the VA/NC border. Strengthening
southerly winds will continue to eat away at the CAD from south
to north, with most areas getting some breaks in the clouds this
afternoon. The low-level moisture does remain, however, so there
will likely be a broad cu field. The temperature forecast does
remain in a bit of flux, though when the CAD breaks expect a
rapid surge in temps up to the 70s. For areas in northeast MD
that might not occur until late afternoon to evening, with the
"daytime" highs occurring after sunset when temps reach the low
60s in southerly WAA.

A potent shortwave and associated area of low pressure rapidly
track northeastward from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes toward
Quebec today. The combination of deeper moisture advecting into
the area in southerly flow (dewpoints reaching into the upper
50s to lower 60s), daytime heating, and glancing ascent as the
shortwave passes to our north and west will enable showers and
thunderstorms to develop by later this afternoon into the
evening. The first round of convection forms due to a surface
trough just to the east of the Alleghenies during the mid-late
afternoon hours. Model soundings show a fair amount of dry air
in place aloft, and large scale forcing for ascent won`t be
overly strong, so areal coverage with this first round of storms
is only expected to be isolated to scattered in nature. If
storms do become well established, the background environment
will have enough instability (around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and
shear (around 40 knots in the 0-6 km layer) to promote updraft
rotation. Isolated instances of damaging winds or hail may be
possible with these storms. Dry conditions elsewhere today.

A second round of pre-existing storms will approach from the
Ohio Valley, reaching the Allegheny Front around sunset. This
round of storms could be well organized into a squall line, and
may potentially be quite intense. With the loss of daytime
heating, the trend will likely be downward with the strength of
this activity as it moves into our area, but damaging winds may
still be possible, especially along and west of the Allegheny
Front. Large scale forcing for ascent may enable these storms
to hold together in a weakened form as they move eastward across
the forecast area during the first half of the night. SPC has
Garrett County in Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, with
locations further east to about US-15 in a Marginal Risk.

The actual surface cold front will move through the area late
tonight into Sunday morning. There is still some disagreement
amongst guidance regarding the timing of the frontal passage,
and how much daytime heating will occur ahead of the front
during the day on Sunday. We`ll likely have some lingering cloud
cover and showers during the morning ahead of the front.
Depending on how fast the front progresses, some daytime heating
could occur ahead of the front across southern Maryland,
potentially leading to the development of a few thunderstorms.

Clearing is expected from northwest to southeast Sunday afternoon
to evening as drier air starts to work in behind the front.
High temperatures on Sunday in the 60s and 70s for most, with
50s in the mountains.

Temperatures mainly in the 70s and 80s Monday and Tuesday under
partly to mostly sunny skies as high pressure builds back into
the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front is likely to push through
the region midweek, bringing back chances for significant rain
followed by a sharp drop in temperatures.

Relatively calm and sunny conditions are likely to continue on
Tuesday, before zonal flow aloft starts to transition to an upper
trough centered over the Northeast on Wednesday. This will result in
a strong cold front set to push through the East Coast over the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, likely bringing significant rain to
the region followed by a sharp drop in temperatures by the end of
next week. The ECMWF and GFS are currently showing this temperature
drop to start on Thursday night, and there are early signals showing
lows to shift back to sub-freezing temps out over the mountains for
a period as high pressure takes over towards the end of the week.
Within the rest of the region, temps could drop to the 40s-50s on
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread LIFR conditions continue east of the Blue Ridge
through this afternoon as low clouds and fog/mist persist.
Condtions will improve to at least MVFR as the low clouds
break, but expect at least a SCT cloud deck to remain around
1500-2000ft through the day. Winds turn out of the south and
pick up to around 15 to 20 knots.

Showers and thunderstorms will approach from the west this
evening, but will likely be weakening as they do so. Any impact
from this is most likely at MRB, and lower at the other
terminals. Additional low clouds and some light showers/drizzle
possible overnight tonight.

A cold front will move through on Sunday, leading to a return
to VFR conditions and a shift to westerly winds.

Prevailing VFR conditions across terminals on Monday and Tuesday,
followed by periods of lowered CIGs and VSBYs associated with a
strong cold front impacting the region between late Wednesday
and Thursday. Southerly winds likely to shift northwesterly on
Wednesday, with gusts up to 20 knots possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will turn out of the south today, and remain sub-SCA in
nature through much of the day. Winds pickup during the
afternoon/evening, with SCA conditions expected. Warm air
moving over cooler waters will likely be a limiting factor to
some extent, especially over the wider waters, but think there
has been enough of a trend upwards to expect some solid 20 knot
gusts.

Winds drop below SCA criteria by Sunday morning and shift out
of the west by Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves over the
waters.

No marine hazards Monday through Tuesday night. Winds generally
south to southwest 5 to 10 knots.

SCA conditions are possible on Wednesday, with gusts up to 20 knots
throughout the bay currently forecasted associated with a strong
cold front pushing through midweek. Winds may further strengthen on
Thursday before gradually decreasing towards the end of the
week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ531>534-536-537-
     541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ531-532-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/KJP/SRT/KRR
AVIATION...CJL/KJP/SRT/KRR
MARINE...CJL/KJP/SRT/KRR