Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

975
FXUS61 KLWX 081932
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
232 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for tonight. Small
Craft Advisories have been extended for parts of the waters into
tonight. Low tide levels are steadily improving. The latest
model guidance continues to indicate a broad but unclear wintry
precipitation threat late this week into next weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Moderating temperatures through midweek.

- 2) Still a chance for wintry precipitation during the mid to
  late week period associated with multiple shortwaves.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Moderating temperatures through midweek.

Winds will gradually subside through Monday as high pressure
builds overhead. Despite the lighter winds, enough of a wind is
expected to persist tonight in the metro areas to result in wind
chills around or a bit below 0F. In the far northwestern
suburbs and higher hills of north-central MD (Catoctins, Parr`s
Ridge, South Mountain), wind chills could approach -10F on the
more exposed northwestern facing ridges. To the west, a steady
wind this evening into the overnight will pair with air temps
dropping to near 0F to result in wind chills around -10F. Later
during the overnight, high elevation valleys (The Glades in
western MD, Canaan Valley in WV) likely radiate very well given
high pressure overhead, clear skies, calm winds, very dry air,
and a deep snowpack; this should result in localized "bowls"
well below 0F (perhaps well into the negative teens).

Heights, thicknesses, and 850 hPa temps all begin a steady rise
on Monday, marking a relative warming trend. Despite the strong
WAA ahead of an approaching warm front late Monday into Tuesday,
a lack of deeper moisture should preclude much in the way of
precip east of the Appalachians. Some precip is possible over
the mountains, mainly west of the Eastern Continental Divide,
due to favorable upslope enhancement both with the warm front
early Tuesday, and a subsequent cold front Tuesday night. NBM
may be underplaying the magnitude of upslope precip, but it
should be light nevertheless with mainly rain transitioning to a
light rain/snow mix before ending as wet snow by mid week.

Otherwise, the main story for the region will be milder temps.
There is some uncertainty as to just how mild the temps get,
especially further northeast where they will have the least
amount of residence time in the "warm sector" of Tuesday`s
system. The current forecast calls for most of the region to
reach freezing in the lower elevations, with near 40F likely
from the South Branch Potomac River Valley, to and across the
Shenandoah Valley and the central VA piedmont on Monday;
northeast MD and the higher elevations likely stay in the upper
20s to around 30F. On Tuesday, the current forecast package
calls for highs in the upper 30s over northeastern MD, with 40s
and 50s most elsewhere (and perhaps near 60F from the South
Branch Potomac River Valley into the north-central Shenandoah
Valley of VA).


KEY MESSAGE 2...Still a chance for wintry precipitation during
the mid to late week period associated with multiple shortwaves.

An upper trough over the Northeast will begin to make its way
eastward starting on Wednesday, and this resulting pressure gradient
will cause winds to pick back up to 10-20 knots NW here in the Mid-
Atlantic during the later half of the week. Associated with
this is a small chance for precipitation, primarily over the
Alleghenies. A second shortwave trough coming from the southwest
could bring additional impacts to the region towards the end of
the week, and this potential second shortwave brings more
widespread chances for a wintry mix throughout the CWA starting
next Friday and into next weekend. Model guidance is still
fluctuating quite a bit on the dynamics associated with these
shortwave troughs, so the timing and magnitude of these events
could still change with updated guidance on the evolving upper
dynamics behind these features. Generally speaking, guidance
broadly shows a Miller B type low setup chasing a retreating
cold airmass that briefly slides over the area late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast early this week. An approaching warm
front Tuesday could bring some lower CIGs near the mountains,
and perhaps some LLWS Tuesday. Otherwise, light NW winds tonight
become SE Monday, S to SW Tuesday, then NW Tuesday night. A few
gusts near 15 knots are possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Winds will begin to pick back up again on Wednesday, corresponding
to an upper trough centered over the Northeast before moving
offshore by Friday. During this time, NW winds gusting up to 20
knots are possible. Lower CIGs are possible during this timeframe if
the trough tracks more southward, but VSBYs should still be
predominantly VFR at terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds will gradually decrease tonight into Monday
before flipping around to the southeast. Winds will then pivot
to south then southwest as a warm front crosses Tuesday. Milder
air over cold (or frozen) water will inhibit mixing and limit
wind gusts until a cold front passes Tuesday night turning winds
back to the northwest.

Winds associated with an upper trough later next week will bring 10-
20 knot winds NW between Wednesday and Thursday, and could persist
through Friday. SCAs are likely on Thursday, especially in the
southern Chesapeake Bay area.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for DCZ001.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016-018-501>510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for VAZ053-054-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for WVZ501-503-504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ530>532-539-540-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ533-534-537-
     541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535-
     536-538.
     Low Water Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/SRT