Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

246
FXUS61 KLWX 251406
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1006 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Advisory issued for Anne Arundel County this
afternoon due to higher tidal anomalies in the Chesapeake Bay.
Otherwise, no changes made to the forecast this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong cold front will bring the possibility of strong to
  severe thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

- 2) Noticeable cooler conditions expected Friday night through
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..A strong cold front will bring the possibility of
strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

High pressure will slide offshore today. A return flow will
bring increasing warmth and moisture into the region today
through Thursday. Highs will reach the 50s to low 60s today.
Highs will reach predominantly in the lower to middle 70s with
some 60s in the mountains in the west for Thursday. Dry
conditions through early Thursday.

A strong cold front will approach the area from the OH Valley
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Ahead of the front
conditions could become favorable for scattered thunderstorms to
move across the Potomac Highlands and parts of the Alleghenies
Thursday evening. There is still uncertainty regarding timing, but
an earlier arrival would allow convection to feed off the unstable
airmass ahead of it. There will be sufficient shear in place to
support organized thunderstorms. SPC maintains the Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) over portions of western MD for Thursday
evening/night. While some thunderstorms likely reach east of the
mountains, the severe threat diminishes quickly as the atmosphere
stabilizes due to loss of daytime heating.

The front slowly sags south into the area Thursday night into
Friday, bringing widespread showers to the area. As the front takes
on more of an anafrontal phasing, there could be some lingering rain
on the backside that persists through Friday afternoon. Conditions
clear out from north to south Friday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2..Noticeable cooler conditions expected Friday
night through the weekend.

Canadian high pressure will build back over the region yielding
highs only in the mid 40s and low 50s (30s mountains) Saturday
and overnight lows in the mid 20s and low 30s Saturday night.
The surface high will slide offshore late Sunday allowing
temperatures to warm back into the 50s and 60s. Southerly return
flow ensues for the new workweek with spotty shower chances
over the mountains/far northern sections of the forecast area
Monday and Tuesday as a piece of shortwave energy passes
through.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail through Thursday. A cold front slowly
crosses the region Thursday night into Friday, with sub- VFR
conditions likely due to passing showers and low clouds.
Conditions improve behind the front Friday evening/night.

No aviation hazards this weekend with Canadian high pressure
building overhead. Next chance for sub-VFR conditions looks to
arrive by the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building over the region will maintain sub-SCA
conditions today. Southerly channeling could bring winds close
to SCA conditions tonight over the open waters of the
Chesapeake Bay. SCA conditions are becoming likely at some point
Thursday into Friday as a strong cold front moves across the
region. Sub-SCA winds return over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather may become an issue over portions of the area Saturday
through Monday pending on how much rainfall we see with the front.
Minimum RH values will fall into the 25 to 35 percent range each
afternoon with wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph. Right now, the greatest
threat appears to be over the severe drought area of central VA and
the Shenandoah Valley.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies have run a bit higher than forecast in southerly
flow across the region. There is greater confidence now that
Annapolis will reach minor flood stage at high tide (which is
around 1130 AM). A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for
this. Another Advisory might be needed for Havre de Grace if
anomalies remain high in the northern bay.

The second high tide this afternoon/evening will be the lower of
the two daily high tides, so not forecasting any tidal flooding
at this time.

High tide could approach minor flood once again at Annapolis and
other sensitive locations Thursday late morning to early
afternoon.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/LFR/KLW/KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KLW/KRR