Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

197
FXUS61 KLWX 010743
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
343 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories remain in effect until 8AM
this morning as temperatures drop into the 30s, mainly west of
the Blue Ridge. Cooler temperatures linger this weekend with
frost/freeze concerns continuing each night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Frost and/or freezing temperatures likely, especially west
  of the Blue Ridge Mountains, through the weekend as cooler
  temperatures continue.

- 2) Showers remain possible at times next week as temperatures
  rise to near or above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost and/or freezing temperatures likely,
especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, through the weekend
as cooler temperatures continue.

Upper level troughing persist through the weekend with a closed
low located north of the area. This yields below normal
temperatures as the trough pivots overhead. Today will be the
warmest day through Sunday, with highs in the 60s to low 70s
(50s mtns). Highs will further cool to the 50s and 60s for most
Saturday and Sunday.

The main concern is low temperatures each night dropping into
the 30s and 40s. Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories remain in
effect until 8AM this morning as temperatures drop into the low
to mid 30s along the Alleghenies. While near and/or below
freezing temperatures continue tonight and Saturday night, the
confidence in frost/freeze conditions remains uncertain. Cloud
cover tonight will inhibit radiational cooling with temperatures
not expected to be as low as this morning. That being said,
frost/freeze headlines will be reevaluated on later shifts and
remain possible as cold temperatures continue.

The coldest night of the period will be Saturday night as
temperatures fall into the 30s to low 40s for most. The
inhibiting factor Saturday night will be gusty winds, with frost
struggling to develop. Freeze Warnings are more likely, mainly
along the Alleghenies, as temperatures fall into the low 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers remain possible at times next week as
temperatures rise to near or above normal.

Closed low/longwave troughing will remain centered near/north of the
Great Lakes early next week. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will become positioned in the western Atlantic. Southerly
winds will become a bit gusty during the daytime, and the ensuing
warm advection will bring temperatures back closer to or even above
normal. Some areas could reach 80 on Tuesday. There are some
uncertainties with how exactly the trough evolves, but a frontal
zone will be slowly approaching from the northwest Monday and
Tuesday. Some showers could reach the northwestern half of the
forecast area as embedded shortwaves pivot through, but overall
these days should be drier.

At some point during the middle of the week, a digging shortwave
trough will amplify the pattern and push the cold front across the
area. This front will bring higher rain chances, and depending on
timing, potentially thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend back down
the second half of the week in the wake of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers are expected this afternoon with a PROB30
group at each TAF site. Primarily VFR conditions are expected
throughout the day with only brief restrictions possible during
precipitation. South/southwest winds remain light through today.
Winds shift northernly on Saturday, remaining light blowing 5-10
knots. Northwest winds increase on Sunday with gusts 15-20 knots
expected in the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected each day.

Southerly winds will gust to 20 kt during the daytime Monday and
Tuesday. A shower or thunderstorm may reach MRB on Tuesday ahead of
an approaching frontal zone. Otherwise VFR conditions are
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the southern
portions of the waters through early this morning. Winds
diminish below SCA criteria today with south/southwest winds
gusting up to 15 knots. Winds become more southerly tonight and
approach SCA criteria due to southerly channeling. A brief
window of gusts 15 to 20 knots is possible for a few hours this
evening with additional advisories possible. Small Craft
Advisories are likely Saturday night into Sunday as a nearby
coastal low yields northwest winds gusting up to 25 knots across
the waters.

Small Craft Advisories will be likely Monday and Tuesday in
southerly flow.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ504.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ503.
WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ502-503-506.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ531>533-537-539>541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS
AVIATION...ADS/AVS
MARINE...ADS/AVS