Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

770
FXUS61 KLWX 281333
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
933 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Tranquil weather is expected through the middle of the week
      with climbing temperatures.

- 2) A cold front will approach on Friday, leading to cooler and
     potentially unsettled weather for the weekend.

The weakening Nor`easter is beginning to move away from the New
Jersey coast and will continue to progress northeastward today
as a blocking ridge to the north translates eastward. Before it
does so, a few light showers/patches of drizzle continue across
mainly north central and northeastern Maryland. It appears the
risk for rain will start declining by mid morning. Some CAM
reflectivity forecasts try to spit out a few sprinkles this
afternoon from the residual shallow moisture layer, but have
left the forecast dry for now.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Tranquil weather is expected through the middle
of the week with climbing temperatures.

While some breaks in the clouds have developed, the 12Z
IAD sounding showed lots of moisture trapped below a subsidence
inversion. Expecting those breaks in the clouds to fill in
again this afternoon.

Clouds will hold temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
except mid 70s in central Virginia where there may be more
breaks of sun. Winds will be lighter than the weekend as the
pressure gradient relaxes.

Some clouds likely linger through tonight. Some fog may develop
west of the Blue Ridge, if there are breaks. Lows will largely
be in the 50s.

Ridging at the surface and aloft will build toward the eastern
US for the middle of the week, leading to a steady warming
trend. Residual moisture may remain trapped beneath the
subsidence inversion with weak gradients on Tuesday, although
deeper mixing will likely support more breaks of sun. While dry
conditions are most likely, it`s worth noting some guidance
indicates there may be a brief shower or sprinkle as the
mid/upper level trough axis will still be overhead. Highs will
be closer to normal in the 70s.

Temperatures will climb further Wednesday and Thursday, with
more locations reaching the 80s. Some spots could even reach the
upper 80s by Thursday. Developing southerly flow will lead to
more sunshine. Dry weather is expected both days. With light
winds and elevated dew points, some patchy fog could form during
the overnight hours.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will approach on Friday, leading to
cooler and potentially unsettled weather for the weekend.

Expect continued warm conditions Friday in response to the
above average heights across the region. Unlike many ridges that
stagnate during the summertime, this feature is forecast to be
more transient in nature while edging off the Atlantic coast by
Friday. Amplifying flow in the northern stream will allow a
longwave trough to graze the area by Friday into Saturday. Given
the height falls are rather weak, the accompanying cold front
which reaches the area on Friday likely stalls just off to the
south through the weekend. The pattern turns a bit more
unpredictable by Sunday into early next week. An elongated area
of vorticity spinning initially around the Southern Plains may
begin to edge northeastward in time. Enhanced vertical motions
plus increasing moisture fluxes would support a risk for more
concentrated rainfall. However, uncertainty is rather high given
the mesoscale nature of these features.

As the weak surface boundary nears the area, rain chances
return to the forecast for Friday. Given the weak nature of the
front and limited upper- level support, such chances are largely
capped around 20 to 40 percent. As mentioned above, this
frontal system is likely to linger just off to the south for the
weekend. This will maintain a continued threat for rain along
with cooler temperatures. At this point, daily highs are
forecast to be in the 60s, with 50s at night given the abundant
clouds and further rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR cigs will persist through mid-afternoon before improving
back to VFR later in the afternoon. Northwest winds will
generally remain less than 10 kt.

Guidance suggests MVFR ceilings or some patchy fog if there are
breaks could develop at MRB overnight. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected.

High pressure will provide tranquil weather for Tuesday through
Thursday. The only potential impacts would be from early morning
fog (greatest chances at MRB and CHO).

As a cold front pushes through on Friday, some showers return,
but restrictions look unlikely at this time. Initial winds will
be southerly before shifting to west to northwesterly by Friday
behind the cold front. Gusts up to 10 to 15 knots are possible
as this boundary crosses through.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure moving toward the area will provide light winds
Tuesday and Wednesday. A northwesterly direction will turn
southerly on Wednesday.

Southerly winds begin to pick up in strength on Thursday, with some
channeling effects bringing gusts to near 20 knots over the more
southern waters. A cold front moves through on Friday which yields a
shift to northerly flow. This comes with an uptick in post-frontal
winds which may favor Small Craft Advisories for Friday evening into
the night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some uncertainty exists for the remainder of the week as
guidance indicates anomalies will stagnate close to 1 foot above
normal. As long as it stays near this value, most locations
should remain below minor flood thresholds. However, Annapolis
could have minor flooding for some tide cycles depending on how
exactly the water levels fluctuate.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/BRO
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/BRO
MARINE...ADS/LFR/BRO