Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

658
FXUS61 KLWX 020605
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
205 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the forecast for the next few hours to reflect ongoing
shower activity. Nudged down temperatures a bit more across the
northeast part of the region today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A cold front will waver near or just north of the area
  Thursday through Saturday resulting in warm conditions.

- 2) A strong cold front passing through the region on Sunday
  could bring widespread rainfall and a drop in temperatures by
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will waver near or just north
of the area Thursday through Saturday resulting in warm
conditions.

A backdoor cold front will drop southward through the forecast
area this morning. Low clouds will build in to the north of the
front, and some patchy fog or drizzle may also be possible at
times. This front will have a huge impact on our forecast high
temperatures for today. Central Virginia and the Central
Shenandoah Valley may stay to the south of the front and could
see temperatures rise into the 80s beneath of mix of sun and
clouds. Northeast Maryland will likely have temperatures hold in
the low 50s beneath cloudy skies. In between, there will be a
very sharp gradient in temperatures in the vicinity of the
front. Most solutions favor the DC Metro ending up on the cool
side of the front, with low clouds through much, if not all, of
the day. The latest temperature guidance was loaded in overnight,
which dropped forecast high temperatures tomorrow from the DC
Metro north and east another couple degrees. A few showers or
storms may form near or to the north of the front during the
afternoon, but likely won`t pose any threat for severe weather.

The aforementioned front will lift north of the area for Friday
and Saturday, allowing near record temperatures to advect
northward into the area within southerly low-level flow. High
temperatures are forecast to reach into the low 80s on Friday,
and then mid 80s on Saturday. While a stray afternoon shower or
storm can`t be ruled out across northwestern portions of the
forecast area either day, the vast majority of the time will
remain dry.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front passing through the region on
Sunday could bring widespread rainfall and a drop in temperatures by
early next week.

Cold front moves southward across the area Sun. This looks like
a widespread wetting rain (several tenths of an inch).
Instability is rather low, but non-zero. Potential for
thunderstorms exist, just uncertain on coverage/intensity. Rain
moves out by Mon with temps falling back to below average for
much of next week.

While the growing season has not officially started, some
frost/freeze concerns likely exist several nights next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR ceilings appear likely through much of today and tonight to
the north of a front. CHO may maintain VFR conditions to the
south of the front, but it will be very close. Winds will
generally be light out of the northeast to southeast. A few
showers or storms may form in the afternoon mainly near
KCHO/KMRB, but much of the day will likely remain dry. IFR
conditions may linger through Friday morning, but improvement
back to VFR is expected for Friday afternoon through Saturday
as the front lifts back to our north. Winds will generally be
out of the south for both Friday and Saturday.

There is a potential for prolonged, widespread rainfall across
terminals on Sun as a result of a cold front that may bring lowered
ceilings and VSBYs throughout the area. Winds shift NW`ly in the
wake of a cold front between Sun and Mon. Surface winds are likely
to be elevated on Sun, with gusts between 20-25 knots possible.
Winds should gradually diminish overnight going into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds are expected over the waters through tonight
before winds turn southerly for Friday and Saturday. SCAs may be
needed in southerly flow at times on Friday and Saturday, and
can`t be ruled out in easterly flow this afternoon/evening.

SCA conditions Sun as a strong cold front moves through. Widespread
rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible, with winds
shifting NW`ly by Mon in the wake of the front. SCA conditions may
still be necessary on Mon, but should gradually decrease as the day
progresses.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/KJP/CPB
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/CPB
MARINE...DHOF/KJP/CPB