Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

653
FXUS61 KLWX 110805
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
405 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory expanded to all waters this morning.
Northern edge of today`s rain is better resolved. Coverage of
rain is uncertain Wednesday-Wednesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler with light rain for southern areas today, followed by
a late season frost/freeze west of the Blue Ridge tonight.

2) Gusty thunderstorms are possible Wednesday.

3) After another cool down, above normal temperatures return for
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler with light rain for southern areas today,
followed by a late season frost/freeze west of the Blue Ridge
tonight.

A cold front has mostly pushed south of Virginia early this
morning, with a couple weak waves of low pressure riding along
it today. Meanwhile, a trough is digging southeastward from the
Great Lakes, which will provide ascent along the mid level
baroclinic zone. Showers are starting to develop in spots along
this zone, while additional rain from Kentucky will progress
toward the area later this morning. Locations from central
Virginia to southern Maryland will see light rain through the
morning before it gradually sinks southward this afternoon. The
northern edge will likely be somewhere near a line from
Harrisonburg to Annapolis. Rain amounts likely remain less than
a quarter inch for most locations though. Below normal
temperatures are expected today between cold advection and
clouds. Places in western Maryland and eastern West Virginia may
see some sun this afternoon which will allow for the warmest
readings in the upper 60s.

High pressure will settle southward from the Great Lakes by
Tuesday morning. The gradient should be weak enough that valleys
west of the Blue Ridge decouple. The extent of near to below
freezing dew points is a little uncertain, with the highest
confidence in the Allegheny Mountains. A Freeze Watch remains in
effect for these areas.

The high will push southeast of the area Tuesday afternoon, allowing
for return flow and plenty of sun. However, high temperatures
will likely still be slightly below normal for this time of
year.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Gusty thunderstorms are possible Wednesday.

Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes Tuesday night
into Wednesday. A warm front will lift north of the area by
Wednesday morning, with gusty southerly winds sustaining
seasonable conditions through the day. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected ahead of the trailing cold front which will reach
the area Wednesday night. Timing and coverage remain a bit
uncertain, although areas west of the Blue Ridge may see
slightly greater instability and a greater chance of convection
occurring during afternoon heating. That said, much like recent
fronts, instability will be lacking as dew points struggle into
the 50s with relatively poor mid level lapse rates. Given the
wind fields in place, any stronger thunderstorms that do develop
could produce gusty winds, and SPC has highlighted western
portions of the area in a Marginal/Level 1 Risk.

KEY MESSAGE 3...After another cool down, above normal
temperatures return for the weekend.

The trough responsible for Wednesday night`s cold front will
close off into a low that will move eastward across the Mid
Atlantic and New England Thursday into Friday. The highest
chance of rain showers will be in upslope areas along the
Alleghenies, but at least some isolated showers could occur
elsewhere, especially during peak heating. Below normal
temperatures can be expected Thursday, rising closer to normal
Friday.

Next weekend, high pressure quickly crosses the area and a
warmer airmass will advect into the area. Expect high
temperatures into the 80s for many areas both days. The upper
level pattern is a little more uncertain, but widespread rain is
unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal zone will remain nearby to the south today resulting
in generally light northeast winds (though a few gusts to 20 kt
are possible first thing this morning). Rain will develop across
CHO for much of the morning hours before departing in the
afternoon. Ceilings will eventually drop to MVFR for a few
hours, and visibility could drop at times as well. The northern
edge of showers will be near IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN, but flight
conditions will likely remain VFR. Ceilings should clear out by
this evening.

VFR conditions with light winds expected Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night as a cold front crosses.
Southerly winds will also be gusty Wednesday. Ceilings could
drop to MVFR Wednesday night.

Upper level low may produce a few showers Thursday and Friday
with at least some potential for MVFR ceilings, especially at
MRB. Gusty NW winds are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
A surge of northerly winds in the wake of a cold front is
affecting the waters this morning. It`s a bit stronger than
originally expected with peak gusts around 30 kt. It`s also
affecting all waters, so the Small Craft Advisory was expanded. Winds
will diminish from north to south after sunrise. It`s possible
the advisory may need to be expanded into the afternoon for the
wide waters of the mid bay which will be in closer proximity to
low pressure to the southeast.

Southerly flow increases Tuesday night through Wednesday evening
as a warm front lifts north, with SCAs likely. A few SMWs may
also be needed Wednesday afternoon with any stronger
thunderstorms that may develop in advance of a cold front.

A period of SCA conditions in northwest flow is likely in the
wake of the cold front Thursday into Friday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ008.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     VAZ503-504.
WV...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/SRT
MARINE...ADS/SRT