Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

932
FXUS61 KLWX 222045
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
345 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold Wx Advisories have been issued for some areas Friday night.
This airmass will bring the Arctic air necessary for a
significant winter storm slated to impact the areas this
weekend. Now is the time to prepare. Travel is likely to be
difficult or impossible during the peak of the storm.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) High confidence for a major winter storm across the region
  late Saturday into Sunday.

- 2) Dangerously cold wind chills and near record breaking
  temperatures will remain likely this weekend through early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High confidence for a major winter storm across
the region late Saturday into Sunday.

Forecast remains on track for the high impact winter storm
slated to impact the area remains on track. To summarize this
storm briefly, the Pineapple Express (wet) meets the Siberian
Express (cold) bringing abundant wintry precip.

Northern shifts have slowed in most guidance, but a complex
forecast with all precip types expected. Updated snowfall
forecast will be out through 7 PM Sunday on
weather.gov/lwx/winter by 5:30 pm this evening. Additional light
to moderate amounts are possible after this. Previous updated
discussion follows...

The overall synoptic pattern remains rather complicated,
particularly as a number of the features have not moved into the
denser North American data network yet. As is common with Mid-
Atlantic snowstorms, both the northern and southern streams need
to be active with some interaction between the two. Looking
more closely at this, the northern stream remains very amplified
as cyclonic flow draws Arctic air southward. At the same time,
the mentioned upper low just offshore of southern California
should gradually accelerate eastward across Baja California
early in the weekend. The height pattern evident in the guidance
suggests a decent amount of confluence downstream across the
central/eastern U.S. Ample lift over this region will occur atop
the Arctic air mass that plunges southward in time. Meanwhile,
ample low-level moisture advection takes place which will tap
into the ample energetics of this setup. As the Arctic high
settles over New England, the familiar cold air damming isobaric
pattern sets up along the Eastern Seaboard. This will certainly
ensure almost no chance of plain rain in this frigid setup.

One thing to note regarding the latest guidance is that there
has been some leveling off in the trends of the track of the low.
Some uncertainty remains in how far north sleet/freezing rain
evolves given the exact track of the system and temperature
profiles aloft. With deeper cold air in place, sleet may be
favored for a time for a large area south of I-70 and especially
US-50 on Sunday before a potential transition to freezing rain.
There are hints of significant icing potential from central VA
and possibly into the I-95 corridor and southern MD late Sunday.

Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15-18:1 with this
system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down
toward 7-10:1 Sunday morning into the afternoon (lower where
some mixing occurs). A pending dry slot could also play into
amounts as well. Snow should be fluffy in nature, particularly
within the initial warm advection conveyor belt Saturday night.
Expect some crustiness of this snowpack given any mixing that
may occur as the system kicks out heading into Sunday night.

Upslope snow may linger along and west of the Allegheny Front
into Monday morning, as will the potential for some light snow
or freezing drizzle near and east of I-95.

The probabilities for significant snow and ice remain very high.

The most likely area for the highest snowfall totals is across
northern MD and over VA near and west of the Blue Ridge. The
chance of greater than 6 inches of snow is an impressive 75 to
90+ percent areawide, highest in the aforementioned arc. Chances
for a foot of snow are also quite high with values well over 50
percent in the favored areas along/west of the Blue Ridge up to
northern MD (with 30-50 percent chances of 18-24 inches there).
Further south and east, mixing may ultimately put a lid on just
how high snowfall totals get, though lift through the DGZ and
therefore snowfall rates prior to any mixing look impressive.

Regarding ice, areas from central VA to southern MD and up the
I-95 corridor have the highest probabilities of icing at 30-50
percent (though that will likely trend higher given the setup as
new guidance catches on and is ingested into the NBM). Chances
for one-quarter inch or more of ice has ballooned to over 20
percent in these areas as well, with even some 10 to 20 percent
probabilities of a half inch from central VA to southern MD.

The combination of heavy snow and ice alongside prolonged very
cold temperatures presents a unique and significant risk to life
and property across virtually the entire region.

Monitor the latest forecasts at weather.gov/lwx/winter for
updates on this situation. Now is the time to make preparations
for the storm. This includes getting any necessary groceries or
medicines that you may not be able to access this weekend into
early next week due to any potential closure. Have an emergency
kit in the car including extra batteries, a flashlight, and
blanket just in case you get stranded. Make sure to refuel or
charge your car before the storm hits. Check on elderly friends,
family, and neighbors and don`t forget about pets or livestock
during this prolonged cold period.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold wind chills and near record
breaking temperatures will remain likely this weekend through
early next week.

Arctic high pressure to the north will unleash true Arctic air
across the region this weekend into early next week.

850 mb temperatures Friday night into Saturday will drop to as
low as -20 degrees C. This will yield widespread single digit
lows Friday night with highs Saturday (east of the mountains)
struggling to get out of the mid teens and low 20s. Wind chill
factors won`t be much better during this time with widespread
values near or below zero Friday and Saturday nights. Have
issued a Cold Weather Advisory for northern locales and areas
east of the Blue Ridge where criteria is lower. Regardless, it
is going to be cold.

Temperatures increase slightly Sunday with highs in the upper teens
and mid 20s. Similar values can be expected Monday and Tuesday as
well. Overnight lows will remain in the single digits to low teens
with sub-zero values over the mountains. Of course daytime
highs/lows will be subject to change given anticipated snowpack on
the ground. Values could trend lower, especially during the
nighttime and early morning periods as winds subside on certain
nights heading into the new workweek. Several records may be broken
within this frigid stretch (see Climate section below). Wind chills
Sunday night into Monday, and Monday night into Tuesday will remain
in the single digits to below zero areawide. The lowest wind chills
right now look to occur behind the Arctic front Friday night into
Saturday, and again Monday night into Tuesday as a reinforcing weak
wave of energy passes through.

With prolonged cold temperatures, expect an increase in water main
issues and difficulty with snow/ice clearing operations. Hypothermia
and frostbite will become an issue as well, especially for those
spending extended time outdoors. For those using alternative sources
of heat i.e. space heaters, fireplaces, and stoves, never leave
these unattended. Keep areas well ventilated to avoid fires or
carbon monoxide poisoning.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through Friday with dry conditions
expected. Winds turn toward more of a southwest and westerly
direction today. Gusts of 15 kts are expected late morning,
increasing to 20-25 kts this afternoon. Winds will decrease
tonight while turning northwesterly through Friday as a strong
Arctic front pushes through. Gusts of 20 to perhaps 30 kts can
be expected along and directly behind the frontal passage Friday
afternoon into Friday night.

Sub-VFR conditions return from the southwest Saturday afternoon
before spreading northeast Saturday evening into Saturday night.
This is in relation to a high impact major winter storm that will
impact the Mid-Atlantic region. The main window for heavy snow
accumulation will be between 00z/7pm Saturday through 18z/1pm Sunday
with some mixed precip possible Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon
especially at terminals south/east of DCA. Precip should largely end
by or shortly after 06Z/1am Monday. Plan for travel delays and
cancellations that may linger into the first half of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA criteria winds are expected late this afternoon through
Friday morning.

Northwest winds gust 20 to 25 knots over the waters beginning Friday
afternoon and persist through the overnight. Cold temperatures may
lead to possible freezing spray, especially as winds approach gale-
force Friday night.

Gusty winds and freezing spray likely linger through the weekend
as a major winter storm tracks across the region.

Northeast winds on Sunday shift to northwest on Monday with SCA
criteria winds possible both days. Winds will be greatest on Monday,
gusting near Gale conditions across the open waters of the
Chesapeake Bay. Freezing spray remains likely Sunday and Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Blowout tides are expected Friday night through the first half
of next week. Water levels are expected to bottom out at 1 to 2
ft below MLLW Saturday morning and may extend into Monday as NW
winds strengthen.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are some daily temperature records during the January 24-27,
2026 timeframe:

A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.

                   ***SATURDAY, JANUARY 24TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        18F (1948)             3F (1963)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          21F (2014)!           -2F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  17F (1948)             1F (1963)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     21F (2014)+!           4F (1963)
Martinsburg (MRB)                13F (1948)            -4F (1963)+
Charlottesville (CHO)            23F (2014)+!           5F (1963)
Annapolis (NAK)                  18F (1948)!            2F (1963)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 12F (1936)            -5F (1963)+

                  ***SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        16F (1897)             3F (1935)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          18F (1987)            -5F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  17F (1987)+            0F (1897)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     20F (2004)+            8F (1961)
Martinsburg (MRB)                16F (2004)+           -4F (1936)
Charlottesville (CHO)            19F (2004)+            5F (1948)
Annapolis (NAK)                  19F (1961)             3F (1987)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 15F (2004)           -15F (1935)

                 ***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        17F (1961)             5F (1948)+
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          21F (1966)             3F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  17F (1961)             2F (1961)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     19F (1961)            13F (1982)!
Martinsburg (MRB)                12F (1961)           -10F (1948)
Charlottesville (CHO)            13F (1961)             9F (1922)!
Annapolis (NAK)                  18F (1961)             5F (1905)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 15F (1961)           -12F (1948)

                 ***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        22F (1961)             6F (1935)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          22F (2003)            -9F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  21F (1918)             3F (1987)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     22F (1961)            13F (1982)!
Martinsburg (MRB)                17F (1971)            -6F (1987)
Charlottesville (CHO)            18F (1961)             0F (1982)
Annapolis (NAK)                  22F (1961)             5F (1927)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 17F (1907)           -10F (1987)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for DCZ001.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
     morning for DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     MDZ008.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-501>510.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
     morning for MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for MDZ003>006-503-505-507.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for VAZ028-031-037>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505>507-
     526-527.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
     morning for VAZ053>057-527.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-526.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for VAZ503-504.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for WVZ050>053-501-503-504.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for WVZ050>053-055.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for WVZ501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for ANZ530.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
     morning for ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 9 PM EST Friday for ANZ532-
     533-540-541.
     Gale Warning from 9 PM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/DHOF/CPB
AVIATION...AVS/CPB
MARINE...AVS/CPB
TIDES...DHOF
CLIMATE... DHOF