Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

269
FXUS61 KLWX 040042
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
842 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Made minor adjustments to the rain chances this evening to
account for ongoing light rain in central/northern VA and
southern MD. The rest of the forecast remains on track for
tonight with rain moving in from south to north late.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A frontal system nearby will maintain rain chances through
  Sunday with below average temperatures.

- 2) Frost and freezing temperatures are possible to the west of
  the Blue Ridge early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A frontal system nearby will maintain rain
chances through Sunday with below average temperatures.

A stalled front remains across North Carolina this evening with
overrunning light rain and clouds stretching north to just south
of I-70/68. Precipitation increases in coverage during the
second half of the night, especially south of I-66 where periods
of light rain are likely. Some patchy fog is possible, though
mostly in rural low-lying areas west of the Blue Ridge.
Temperatures mostly steady in the 50s to around 60F.

A band of light rain, perhaps locally moderate in nature, will
track northeastward across the region through at least the first
half of Sunday. A persistent northeasterly wind should again
hold temperatures down in the 60s. Any rain chances should
largely come to an end just before sundown Sunday. Overnight
conditions should be fairly similar to tonight with lows again
in the 50s.

As a deep upper trough tracks across far eastern Canada, a more
potent cold front sweeps through the northeastern U.S. on
Monday. This will favor increasing sunshine, but also a large
uptick in northwesterly winds. Afternoon gusts up to 20 to 25
mph are possible, but with highs returning to the upper 60s to
mid 70s (upper 50s to 60s in the mountains).


KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost and freezing temperatures are possible to
the west of the Blue Ridge early next week.

A strong area of high pressure will build over the area next
week, leading to an extended period of dry conditions. As a cooler
airmass works in and high pressure builds overhead, frost and
freezing temperatures may be possible to the west of the Blue Ridge
both Monday night and Tuesday night. We`ll start to see slightly
warmer air build in from the south and west later in the week. High
temperatures at lower elevations are forecast to be in the 60s
(upper 50s/low 60s mountains) on Tuesday, upper 60s to low 70s on
Wednesday (60s mountains), and mid 70s (mid-upper 60s mountains) on
Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures will gradually moderate
from the 30s/40s early in the week, to the upper 40s/low 50s later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR cloud cover and periods of light rain through the first half
of the night. The only restrictions now are at CHO with MVFR
CIGs. Expect conditions to deteriorate as CIGS lower and rain
increases during the second half of the night. Likely see MVFR
then IFR CIGs spread from south to north after 06Z. This does
come with increasing rain chances just before daybreak Sunday.

Rain likely continues through the first half of the day before
a drying trend before dark. Low ceilings likely persist into
Sunday night given persistent northeasterly flow. However, VFR
conditions return for Monday behind a strong cold front. Gusts
up to 20 to 25 knots are possible during the afternoon hours.

VFR conditions are expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds are forecast to be out of the north on Tuesday, and then
south on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds have take hold across the waters at around 10-15
knots. Occasional gusts around 18-20 knots possible over the
central Chesapeake Bay. Expect this to persist into Sunday with
prevailing winds turning north to northeasterly given the CAD
wedge in place. The true ramp up in wind fields comes for the
second half of Monday behind a cold front. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed midday Monday through the
night.

Sub-SCA level northerly winds are expected on Tuesday. Wind shift
to out of the south on Wednesday, and are expected to remain sub-SCA
in nature.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will be on the decrease as high pressure builds on
the northwest side of the front that continues to push south.

Another tidal surge is possible going into early next week ahead
of the next frontal system. Lots of uncertainty at this time,
but some minor tidal flooding looks possible, particularly at
the more sensitive locations.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KJP/KRR
AVIATION...BRO/KJP/KRR
MARINE...BRO/KJP/KRR