Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

635
FXUS61 KLWX 111901
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
301 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continue to monitor for a few thunderstorms in Central VA this
afternoon. Beyond that, the flood potential remains for Saturday
afternoon to evening, but uncertainty remains regarding where
the heaviest rain will fall.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A few Central Virginia thunderstorms today, then likely
  widespread convection Saturday into Saturday night.

- 2) Dry conditions expected early next week ahead of a midweek
  cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A few Central Virginia thunderstorms today,
then likely widespread convection Saturday into Saturday night.

The slow moving frontal boundary is now across Central VA, with a
few showers and thunderstorms noted along the I-64 corridor. SPC has
a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) along the far southern CWA centered
in Nelson County. This is where low-level convergence and better
instability could result in a strong storm or two. The time window
for impacts in our area are limited as the front continues to push
south. Most of the convection pushes south of our area by around 4-
5PM. After that, conditions should be mostly dry through this
evening. Cloud cover has kept temps in the 70s for most of the area,
and even those north of the frontal boundary are also in the mid to
upper 70s.

Surface high pressure over southern New England slides offshore
Saturday causing southeasterly flow to develop/strengthen over the
Mid-Atlantic. The synoptic pattern gets messy into the weekend as an
elongated trough stretches from the Deep South to Mid-Atlantic. The
stalled boundary over southern VA lifts north as a warm front
Saturday morning, bringing a possibly first round of showers to the
area. As the boundary lifts north of the MD/PA border, warm sector
showers are possible at time Saturday afternoon, though the bulk of
convection is set to arrive toward the evening hours.

Numerous embedded shortwaves lift across the Tennessee Valley toward
the southern Mid-Atlantic, helping produce ample lift and shear
across the region. A surge of tropical moisture brings PWATs to
around 2" Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. A wave of surface
low pressure may try to develop somewhere in lee of the Alleghenies
Saturday evening as the strongest shortwave traverses the region. A
subtle jet streak develops ahead of the upper trough, and while not
overly impressive it will be enough to aid in widespread showers and
thunderstorm development. Locally heavy rain is likely in some
areas, though the 12Z high res guidance does not point to any one
specific location. Later analysis on areas of low-level convergence
that set up will be key to determine where a flash flood threat
could develop. But for now, have not issued any Flood Watches due to
uncertainty in location of heaviest rain. WPC has expanded the
Slight Risk area for excessive rainfall to include the Alleghenies
where soils are more saturated from rain over the past month. Will
continue to monitor the situation as new mesoscale guidance arrives.

A cold front associated with the upper trough finally swings through
the area Sunday morning to afternoon, bringing an end to any
lingering showers. This front won`t bring much of an airmass change
as temps still reach the 80s and humidity lingers.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions expected early next week ahead
of a midweek cold front.

Upper-level ridging begins to build over the Southeast beginning
Monday and into Tuesday as the cold front transitions offshore.
Humidity & temperatures decrease in the wake of the cold front on
Monday, with dewpoints ranging in the 50s and low 60s as mid-level
dry air transitions overhead. Monday night might be the first
fall night of widespread lows in the 50s.

Overall, anticipate seasonal, dry conditions to persist over the
following days as this ridging continues to build into the midweek
period. Beginning Wednesday, this ridging begins to transition into
more of a zonal flow overhead as a trough further north forms over
Quebec and Nova Scotia. An associated cold front could begin to
track across the East Coast sometime during this period, although
current guidance shows some spread in the timing of this frontal
passage. This front could bring some showers and thunderstorms to
the region, but probability of severe weather remains low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few thunderstorms are possible around CHO through late this
afternoon. A front that is moving south of the area today is going
to stall tonight, then lift north as a warm front Saturday. Expect
sub-VFR conditions to overspread the area from south to north
Saturday morning. There is uncertainty as to how far north the sub-
VFR CIGs are, but likely impact most of the terminals. Widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected areawide Saturday
afternoon into late Saturday evening. TEMPO groups are likely to be
needed, but are just beyond the current TAF period.

A couple of reinforcing cold fronts move through the region Sunday
into Sunday night, with VFR conditions returning in WNW/NW winds.

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals Monday
through Wednesday. A few lingering showers could temporarily bring
reduced conditions near KCHO on Monday, but otherwise conditions
remain mostly clear throughout Tuesday & Wednesday. Northerly winds
shift southeasterly by Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A slow moving front continues to slide south through the waters. The
brief surge of winds earlier this morning has now abated, with
overall north winds around 10 knots. The front stalls south of the
waters tonight, then lifts north as a warm front Saturday night. An
increase in winds over the waters Saturday could be near SCA levels.
Late afternoon to late evening thunderstorms could lead to hazardous
marine conditions, with Special Marine Warnings possibly needed. A
secondary front moves through Sunday, then a stronger cold front on
Monday. Wind gusts could increase to near marginal SCA thresholds
on Monday before diminishing throughout the day Tuesday. Winds stay
below SCA criteria through Wednesday. Northeasterly winds shift
southeasterly in the wake of a cold front by Tuesday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strengthening onshore flow Saturday will bring tide levels up across
the area. Some locations could reach Action Stage by Saturday night
to early Sunday high tides. A cold front moves through Sunday, and
again Monday, which should bring an end to any coastal flooding
potential.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR/SRT
AVIATION...KRR/SRT
MARINE...KRR/SRT