Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

686
FXUS61 KLWX 241846
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
246 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have continued to trend temperatures down today given the semi-
permanent low stratus deck blanketing much of the region.
Otherwise, have lowered dew points on Monday closer to the model
consensus. The signal for locally heavier precipitation remains
on Monday for those in central Virginia eastward into southern
Maryland. Any flood risk would be tied to the heaviest showers
or in spots with saturated grounds from recent bouts of rain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Active weather pattern persists through the middle of the
  week.

- 2) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are forecast for
  the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Active weather pattern persists through the
middle of the week.

The persistent cold air damming (CAD) wedge signature has
remained a fixture in the forecast along much of the Eastern
Seaboard. The latest surface analysis places the stalled
boundary in a familiar position which stretches along the
coastal Carolinas up along the Appalachian chain into the Ohio
Valley. The combination of this frontal zone with a stout dome
of high pressure across far eastern Canada into New England has
supported continued north to northeasterly gradients. In the
net, the GOES-19 visible satellite imagery depicts a clear
picture of the impact of this setup. Low stratus remain over
vast portions of the region, although some cloud breaks are
evident along/west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. These breaks in
the clouds have even sparked scattered showers over areas of
Garrett and western Grant counties. Any strengthening will be
dependent on further heating of the boundary layer.

The overall forecast package has brought high temperatures down
relative to preceding shifts. As is common in CAD wedge setups,
model guidance often does not capture the degree of cooling.
Consequently today`s highs will largely top out in the 60s,
accompanied by pockets of low 70s in central Virginia and
along/west of the Blue Ridge. Winds should remain on the lighter
side (10 mph or less) with a general onshore component.

Continued onshore flow coupled with light winds and saturated
grounds will likely lead to another round of low clouds tonight.
In areas that are not actively precipitating, some patchy fog
may develop in spots. The mentioned frontal zone is expected to
approach from the south through the night. Isentropic lift atop
this boundary should spread additional overnight showers to the
region. Forecast lows will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

All signs point toward the boundary lifting north of the Mason-
Dixon Line on Memorial Day. Thus, there will be a better chance
for warming temperatures, but also with some increasing
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. As this boundary
works in accordance with a southeastward pushing cold front out
of the Ohio Valley, low-level convergence will begin to
increase. High-resolution models show a decent footprint of
heavier showers south of I-66, possibly over central Virginia
into southern Maryland. Despite the ongoing drought, multiple
days of rainfall has yielded some saturated soils. Spotty
flooding cannot be ruled out where any of these stronger storms
occur. The Weather Prediction Center has expanded the Marginal
Risk area to cover this region of the forecast area.

Looking ahead to Tuesday and Wednesday, the frontal zone is
largely going to be meandering north/south of the Mid-Atlantic
states. As a mid-level subtropical ridge builds over the
southwest Atlantic Ocean, additional mid/upper disturbances will
track around the western side of this anticyclone toward the
local area. Such impulses aloft will work in conjunction with
the stalled boundary and daytime heating to produce additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. How impactful these are is
uncertain given this is still a few days out in time. Multi-
ensemble temperature forecasts do shown an upward trend in
numbers which makes for more seasonable highs through mid-week.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are
forecast for the end of the week.

The synoptic scale pattern is expected to hold relatively steady
from Thursday into the upcoming weekend, with high amplitude ridging
over central North America extending well into central Canada, and
downstream troughing extending southward from Hudson Bay toward the
Mid-Atlantic. Northerly winds at low levels will transport a much
drier airmass into the region, leading to predominantly dry
conditions. Seasonable temperatures will accompany the drier
conditions, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s, and lows in the 50s
for most.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A persistent CAD wedge remains a fixture in the pattern along
the Eastern Seaboard. The continued onshore flow has maintained
a semi-permanent thick stratus deck across all terminals. Most
terminals are still seeing IFR ceilings (600 to 800 feet),
although some improvements are underway at the D.C. terminals
and KCHO. Such a shift is likely to be short lived as additional
low clouds are expected tonight into Memorial Day morning.
Aviation guidance supports a mixture of IFR to LIFR ceilings
tonight, which also comes with the risk of increasing showers
for the second half of the overnight period. Winds will vary in
direction at times but remain light in nature.

The Memorial Day forecast will see mainly IFR conditions through
the morning with the potential for improvements to MVFR for the
afternoon hours. A risk of thunderstorms is noted from the D.C.
terminals southward, particularly around 21-00Z. Otherwise, the
meandering boundary remains nearby through mid-week which will
certainly favor restrictions at times. Temperatures are to warm
at the same time which suggests some loss of these persistent
low cloud days.

VFR conditions are forecast for both Thursday and Friday. Winds are
expected to be out of the north on Thursday, and then northwest on
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Despite the broad gradient formed by high pressure over far
eastern Canada into New England and a frontal zone stalled
across the southeastern U.S., winds remain weak across the area.
Sub-advisory caliber winds are expected for the early/mid
portions of the week. The main caveats to note are a multitude
of wind shifts which occur as the boundary meanders north/south
of the waters. Additionally, daily shower and thunderstorm
chances are expected which could lead to some hazardous boating
conditions. Improvements in the active pattern eventually occur
by later in the week.

Sub-SCA level north to northwesterly winds are expected on Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KJP
AVIATION...BRO/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KJP