Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS61 KLWX 090747
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
347 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Low clouds are developing to the east of the Blue Ridge, which
could impact aviation interests, as well as the potential for
frost and/or freezing temperatures early this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories remain in effect
  through 9 AM.

- 2) Dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the
  week, along with a warming trend in temperatures.

- 3) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories remain in
effect through 9 AM.

As of 330 AM, temperatures have dropped back into the 30s across
the bulk of the forecast area. Winds have gone calm in many
locations, but a few spots have held on to light southeasterly
winds, especially to the east of the Blue Ridge. Low clouds are
starting to form to the east of the Blue Ridge. These low clouds
could locally have an impact in terms of limiting cooling and
resultant frost formation and/or freezing temperatures. Freeze
Warnings and Frost Advisories remain in effect through 9 AM
where the growing season is ongoing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions are expected through the remainder
of the week, along with a warming trend in temperatures.

High pressure will shift off the New England coastline today.
As the high moves offshore, winds will gain more of a southerly
component, allowing warmer air to advect into the region from
the south. A warming trend in temperature will ensue as a
result, with high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s today,
and then the 70s on Friday. With high pressure in control,
continued dry conditions are expected, although some low clouds
may be possible during the morning hours both today and
tomorrow.

A weakening cold front will move through the area Friday night,
potentially leading to a few showers in the Alleghenies.
Otherwise, continued dry conditions are expected through Friday
night and Saturday. Winds will shift to out of the northwest
behind the front as high pressure builds to our north. Mostly
sunny skies are forecast for Saturday, with highs in the mid 60s
to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are
expected early next week.

Surface high pressure centered north of the region on Sunday is
expected to persist into Monday, allowing for generally dry
conditions in the area as upper level ridging builds over the East
Coast. Gradual warming is expected on Saturday and Sunday after a
small cold front knocks temperatures a few degrees on Saturday, with
highs in the 60s and upper 70s through the weekend. A much more
dramatic uptick in temperatures is currently expected to occur by
Monday, with highs in the mid-80s throughout the region and
approaching even higher temperatures on Tuesday and going into next
Wednesday. Deterministic model spread still differs somewhat on
whether these highs will potentially break records, but ensembles
overall agree on a dramatic warming trend at the start of next week.

Precipitation chances return on Tuesday as a cold front approaches
from the Great Lakes region, and a low pressure system may begin to
impact the region by midweek with increased chances for
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM, low clouds are starting to develop to the east of
the Blue Ridge. MVFR ceilings have moved in at IAD, and have
also been introduced to the TAFs at BWI, MTN, and DCA. These
MVFR ceilings will likely continue through much of the morning,
before breaking up around noon. After that, VFR conditions are
expected through the remainder of the day. Winds today will
generally be out of the southeast. MVFR, or potentially even IFR
ceilings may be possible to the east of the Blue Ridge again
tonight. Any low clouds should once again break up by around
noon on Friday. VFR conditions are then expected through
Saturday. Winds will be out of the south on Friday, and then
turn to out of the northwest on Saturday behind a weak cold
frontal passage.

VFR conditions are expected across the terminals on Sunday and
Monday as high pressure builds over the region. On Sunday,
southeast winds blow 5-10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots in the
afternoon. Winds shift to southwesterly for Monday with wind
gusts around 15-20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level south to southeasterly winds are expected over the
waters today. Winds could approach low end SCA levels for a
time in southerly flow late Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. Winds shift to out of the north to northwest on
Saturday as a weak cold front moves over the waters.

Northerly winds Saturday night shift southeasterly by Sunday evening
as high pressure passes to the north. Winds will be around 5-10
knots on Sunday, with an uptick in wind gusts expected by
Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories may be needed by this
time as wind gusts are forecasted to be around 15-20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will be relatively light out of the south to southeast
today, with RHs dropping back into the upper 20s and 30s. RHs
will be locally higher close to Chesapeake Bay and the Tidal
Potomac. RHs recover tonight to around 90-100 percent to the
east of the Blue Ridge, and 60-80 percent to the west of the
Blue Ridge. Winds will be a touch stronger on Friday out of the
south, and could gust to around 20-25 mph on the higher ridges.
Conditions will be dry once again, with min RH values in the 20s
to the west of the Blue Ridge, and upper 20s and 30s to the east
of the Blue Ridge.

Other than a small chance for a shower in the Alleghenies Friday
night as a cold front moves through, no precipitation is
expected over the next several days. Conditions appear as
though they will remain warm and dry into next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are some daily temperature records during the April 14-15,
2026 timeframe:

A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.

                   ***TUESDAY, APRIL 14TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD HIGH (YEAR)   RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        91F (1960)            65F (2014)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          87F (1960)!           63F (2014)!
Baltimore (BWI)                  91F (1941)            65F (2018)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     90F (1960)            67F (2018)
Martinsburg (MRB)                87F (1960)!           62F (2014)
Charlottesville (CHO)            90F (1945)+!          67F (1899)
Annapolis (NAK)                  90F (1941)            65F (1977)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 86F (2024)+!          64F (2014)

                  ***WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD HIGH (YEAR)   RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        89F (1941)!           65F (2023)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          87F (1967)!           62F (2023)!
Baltimore (BWI)                  88F (1941)!           65F (1941)!
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     92F (2024)            67F (1960)!
Martinsburg (MRB)                90F (1941)            63F (1967)
Charlottesville (CHO)            92F (2024)!           68F (1941)
Annapolis (NAK)                  91F (1941)            68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 85F (1960)+!          61F (2023)+!

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ003>006-008-
     503-505-507-508.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ011-013-014-
     016>018-504-506.
VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ025>031-
     037>040-050-051-056-501-502-505-506-526.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ036-053>055-
     057-527.
WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJP/SRT
AVIATION...KJP/SRT
MARINE...KJP/SRT