Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

851
FXUS61 KLWX 300113
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
813 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue to push offshore tonight. An
upper-level trough will remain overhead through Tuesday before
a reinforcing cold front passes through the area late Wednesday
into Thursday. High pressure will briefly return for Friday
before low pressure passes nearby or to our south during the day
Saturday. High pressure will return for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Now that the sun has set, lower elevations south of I-70 and
east of I-81 have begun to see a slight downtick in winds
overall, though the low-level wind field will actually
strengthen through the evening. With continued cold advection
and pressure rises through late evening, anticipate more
occasional but perhaps equal in strength peak magnitude gusts.
Along and several miles to the east of higher elevations is
where the strongest gusts are anticipated due to a very
favorable downsloping setup (strong, deep temperature inversion
just above the ridgeline). A few hurricane force (i.e. 75 mph)
gusts cannot be ruled out for this reason, particularly between
US-219 and US-220 along and east of the Allegheny Front.

Winds may diminish some later tonight due to the loss of
mixing, but blustery and very cold conditions are expected.
Wind chills late tonight will dip into the single digits and
teens for most locations with below zero along the ridges. Areal
extent wasn`t enough for a Cold Weather Advisory, but some
locations above 3500 feet likely stay below negative 10 degree
wind chills. As for overnight wind headlines, will evaluate if
any extensions are needed into the overnight particularly across
northern MD and eastern WV. Strongest winds will continue at
elevation with more occasional gusts in the lower elevations.

Upslope snow showers will along/west of the Allegheny Front
through tonight. The steadiest snow is expected to be this
evening where soundings show decent alignment with low-level
moisture, a little instability, and the DGZ. This prospect is
supported by upstream obs and radar returns of steadier snow
showers moving into SW PA. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect, with around 2 to 5 inches of snow overall; could see
some isolated spots get up to around the 90th percentile, which
is around 6 inches (most likely to occur along west-facing
slopes above 3000 feet and/or under any persistent bands).
Given the very cold temperatures and strong winds, near blizzard
conditions are expected intermittently tonight. Regarding the
blizzard conditions, thinking is that most areas won`t reach
criteria for an extended period of time, but rather off and on.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will slowly pass through eastern Canada Tuesday
while the upper-level trough remains overhead. A strong gradient
between that low and high pressure over the central CONUS will
result in more blustery west to northwest winds. A High Wind
Warning remains in effect for the Allegheny Highlands and Blue
Ridge Mountains, though the magnitude will gradually be
decreasing throughout the morning hours. A Wind Advisory was
considered for locations near/north of I-70 into the eastern
panhandle of WV and extreme northern VA, but just didn`t have
confidence it would be as persistent or strong as we are seeing
currently. The strongest winds will be through midday before
gradually diminishing throughout the afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Highs will range from the teens in the mountains to the
20s and 30s for most other locations, but the brisk winds will
keep wind chills in the teens and 20s for most areas with below
zero to single digits in the mountains.

An upper-level disturbance associated with the northern stream
of the jet will pass through the area Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. This system will lack moisture, but a period
of light upslope snow showers seems possible. The most likely
scenario is for any light snow to be along/west of the Allegany
Front, with very little in terms of accumulations. Given higher
FROUDE numbers in the evening, a few spillover flurries are
possible but scant moisture should make these scarce.

Dry and chilly conditions are expected behind the disturbance
for later Wednesday into Wednesday night. However, another
upper-level disturbance and its associated cold front will
approach the area late Wednesday night. This system may be a
little stronger and have a substantial moisture connection to
the Great Lakes. A period of light snow is possible east of the
mountains, and if this comes to fruition it could cause an
impact late New Year`s Eve into New Year`s Day. For locations
along/west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope component to the
low-level flow along with saturation, alignment with the DGZ,
and forcing from the boundary/disturbance suggests that there is
a likelihood for heavy snow. Given increased confidence in
higher QPF, paired with very high SLRs, a Winter Storm Watch was
issued for this threat. The front may actually also bring
another round of 40-50 mph winds to the mountains. If this comes
to fruition, paired with the more steady nature of this winter
storm, think there is the potential for blizzard conditions at
times as well, especially above 3000 feet. This will need to be
monitored closely over the next 24 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
To start off the new year, a broad negative height anomaly will
encompass much of eastern Canada down into the northeastern U.S.
This largely holds in place through Friday before the primary
cyclonic circulation begins to lift poleward. While in closer
proximity to the local area, an embedded shortwave will drive a
clipper-type system across the northeastern U.S. early Thursday. Not
only will this feature provide a reinforcing shot of cold air, it
also sets the stages for additional upslope snow showers along and
west of the Alleghenies. Although the post-frontal air mass
certainly lacks moisture (0.15 to 0.20 inch precipitable water
values), unidirectional west-northwesterlies should favor
adequate upslope trajectories. Additionally, this flow regime
would have access to the unfrozen Lake Erie waters. Snow-to-
liquid ratios should be quite high given temperatures in the
teens. Consequently, several inches of snow will be possible in
this upslope regime. Expect travel delays and hazardous driving
conditions if this threat indeed materializes.

Looking further to the east, with Froude numbers rising into the 4
to 7 range, there will be some spillover potential toward I-81 and
into the metros. However, the threat is generally capped at 15 to 20
percent chance of snow showers. This may come up some once high-
resolution models capture this event. Otherwise, it will be a cold
and blustery day for all as high temperatures range from the 30s to
low 40s, with upper 20s closer to the Mason-Dixon Line. Meanwhile,
in the mountains, upper teens to 20s are looking more likely.
Daytime mountain wind chills largely do not escape the single digits
which comes with areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. A
cold night looms ahead with lows in the teens (low 20s along and
east of I-95 and near I-64).

As the cold front sags further south toward the southeastern U.S.,
winds will weaken quite a bit into Friday. Weak high pressure builds
nearby which comes with a mix of clouds and sun. Forecast highs rise
by around 5 to 10 degrees which carries temperatures into the upper
30s to 40s. Weak gradients continue into the weekend as mid/upper
heights slowly build as the upper low across eastern Canada lifts
northward. Without much meaningful forcing, precipitation chances
stay on the lower side this weekend into early next week. One
exception is a weak wave tracks across the Mid-South on Saturday
which could graze portions of central Virginia. Otherwise, high
pressure remains around the Eastern Seaboard for next Monday. The
multi-model ensembles maintain seasonable temperatures with slight
increases possible through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect occasional gusts around 35 to 45 knots to continue
through this evening into the early portion of the overnight. A
few gusts to 50 kt are possible, especially for KMRB.

Winds will diminish a little, but still remain somewhat gusty
after 6z through most of Tuesday before further diminishing
late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Did bump winds down
around 5 to 8 knots tonight, but pick them right back up Tuesday
morning. Do think the magnitude will be less Tuesday, but still
probably gusting in the mid 30s knots.

Will watch a couple disturbance. The first one will pass
through late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A few flurries
or light snow cannot be ruled out, but confidence is very low at
this time. A stronger disturbance may bring a little light snow
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Will continue to monitor
both of these systems.

Behind an earlier cold front, a blustery northwesterly wind is
expected on Thursday with afternoon gusts to around 20 to 25 knots.
A few mountain snow showers could spillover toward KMRB, but
confidence is low at this time. Expect VFR conditions for Thursday
into Friday with wind fields gradually decreasing in time as high
pressure approaches from the west. A few showers could graze KCHO on
Saturday, but chances are on the lower side. VFR conditions are
likely to prevail into the weekend. Winds will be somewhat variable
on Friday before shifting to north-northwesterly on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will subside a little late tonight into Tuesday, but
remain gusty. A Gale Warning is in effect for the upper Tidal
Potomac River late tonight as well as the upper and middle
portions of the Bay. The Gale Warning may need to be extended
further south, but confidence is too low at this time. Either
way, it will be windy with gusts around 35 knots in the northern
portions of the waters and gusts around 30 knots in the
southern portions of the waters through most of Tuesday.

Winds will gradually diminish Tuesday night, but an SCA will
likely be needed during this time and continuing through most of
Wednesday.

In the wake of a cold front dropping down toward the Carolinas,
northwesterly winds should remain elevated enough to support further
Small Craft Advisories on Thursday. Gradients weaken into Thursday
night and Friday as high pressure approaches from the west. Sub-
advisory levels are likely as winds shift to southwesterly.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strong and persistent offshore flow is expected later this
afternoon through Tuesday night. Tidal blowout conditions are
possible tonight through Tuesday night. A Low Water Advisory may
be needed.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for DCZ001.
MD...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ003>006-008-011-
     013-014-016>018-503>508.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ501-502-509-
     510.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ509-510.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for MDZ509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ025>031-036>040-
     053-054-501-505-506-526-527.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for VAZ503-504-507-
     508.
WV...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ050>053-055.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ501>506.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ501-503-
     505.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ530>532-538>540.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ533-534-536-537-
     541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ535.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJL/DHOF
NEAR TERM...BJL/DHOF/CJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/DHOF/CJL
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BJL/BRO/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...BJL/BRO/DHOF/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX