Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

910
FXUS61 KLWX 051856
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories for Chesapeake Bay and the Lower Tidal
Potomac have been extended through 6 AM Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Frost is expected in the Alleghenies tonight. Quiet
  weather conditions are anticipated thereafter.

- 2) Remaining dry through the first half of the weekend before
  rain chances return by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost is expected in the Alleghenies tonight. Quiet
weather conditions are anticipated thereafter.

Post frontal northwesterly flow continues to advect drier and
cooler air into the region. Skies are mostly sunny this
afternoon, with just a few fair weather cumulus scattered about
the area. Temperatures are near their highs for the day in the
upper 60s to mid 70s (upper 50s/60s mountains), and dewpoints
have dropped into the 30s/40s (west) and 50s (east). Dewpoints
will continue to drop, eventually reaching the 30s and lower 40s
later tonight.

High pressure currently centered over the Great Lakes will build
southeastward overnight, eventually becoming centered over the
Alleghenies by late in the night. Winds are expected to go calm
in locations to the west of the Blue Ridge as the pressure
gradient weakens. Locations further east will likely maintain a
light northerly wind through much of the night. The combination
of low dewpoints, clear skies, and calm winds will set the stage
for a near ideal radiational cooling night to the west of the
Blue Ridge. Most locations there will drop into the 30s or
lower 40s, with higher elevation valleys in the Alleghenies
likely dropping into the low to mid 30s. Frost is expected to
form there as a result, and Frost Advisories are in effect from
Midnight to 9 AM. Locations in the Central Shenandoah Valley
will also get close to having frost form, and it wouldn`t be
shocking to see some patchy frost here and there, but confidence
wasn`t high enough at this point to extend the Frost Advisory
further east. To the east of the Blue Ridge, overnight lows are
forecast to be in the 40s.

Quiet weather conditions are expected locally for Tuesday and
Wednesday, with high pressure building directly overhead
tomorrow, and then moving just offshore on Wednesday. Sunny
skies are expected both days. Tuesday looks to be the coolest
day of the week, with highs in the 60s for most. Tuesday night
will be another cool night, but with the high a bit further
east, locations east of the Blue Ridge will have the greatest
chance to decouple. Lows Tuesday night are forecast to be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Temperatures warm a bit on Wednesday in
southerly flow, with high temperatures forecast to be in the 70s
for most.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining dry through the first half of the
weekend before rain chances return by Sunday.

The northern latitude pattern will remain amplified during the
mid/late week period. An embedded shortwave trough passes by to the
north on Thursday which ushers in the next cold front. Like the
early week system, this frontal passage will also be a dry one.
Thus, the peak in warmth during the period is likely on Thursday
with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Another dome of
surface high pressure builds in for Friday and into the upcoming
weekend. This supports a slow but steady cooling trend as highs
return to the upper 60s to low 70s by Sunday. Overnight conditions
will be seasonable as lows drop into the mid 40s to mid 50s. At this
point, it does not appear any frost/freeze concerns will exist.

One area to monitor will be the southwestern Gulf of America/Bay of
Campeche. As of 2 PM, the National Hurricane Center continues to
raise the probabilities of development (60%) within the next 48
hours. Whatever does materialize and lifts toward the Gulf Coast
features a lot of forecast uncertainty. Global ensembles show an
area of weakening low centers scattered about the Tennessee Valley
to southeastern U.S. Depending on track and quality of tropical
moisture, heavier rainfall may impact some area east of the
Mississippi River. Will continue to monitor and keep precipitation
chances around 30 to 50 percent for Sunday into next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through Wednesday.
Winds will be out of the northwest today, and may gust to
around 20 knots this afternoon. Winds decrease tonight, and
eventually become light and variable tomorrow as high pressure
moves overhead. Winds then turn light out of the south on
Wednesday.

VFR conditions are expected from Thursday into the first half of the
weekend. Another cold front moves through the area on Thursday
before high pressure returns on Friday into the weekend. Initial
winds will be northwesterly behind the front before becoming more
easterly into Saturday as high pressure builds to the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect within northwesterly
flow for all waters this afternoon. The SCAs continue tonight
for Chesapeake Bay and the Lower Tidal Potomac as winds turn
northerly. Northerly winds decrease over the course of the day
tomorrow, and may become light and variable by late tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow night as high pressure moves overhead.
Winds then turn out of the south on Wednesday as high pressure
builds offshore.

A cold front crosses the waterways by Thursday evening which will
yield a shift to northwesterly winds. At this time, winds stay just
below advisory levels. High pressure moves in for Friday with
variable winds that gust around 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A cold front moved through earlier this morning, and anomalies
are slowly starting to decrease within north to northwesterly
flow. A few sites may reach into Action Stage over the next few
days, but no flooding is expected.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ008.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     VAZ503-504.
WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     WVZ501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KJP
AVIATION...BRO/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KJP