Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

497
FXUS61 KLWX 031821
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
221 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Low clouds and areas of dense fog continue to burn off with a few
spotty showers and isolated t-storms developing over the mountains
this afternoon. Near record temperatures for some today and again
Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near record temperatures and mostly dry conditions through
Saturday.

 2) A strong cold front moves through on Sunday, bringing widespread
rainfall, falling temperatures, and breezy conditions.

 3) Cooler temperatures expected next week along with
surface high pressure building over the Mid-Atlantic by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record temperatures and mostly dry conditions through
Saturday.

Continue to watch the erosion process of the CAD wedge this
afternoon east of the Alleghenies as a warm front lifts north across
the region. Low clouds will likely hang over north-central MD
through 3pm with improvements heading later into the afternoon.
Elsewhere, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected as deep
south to southwesterly flow increases.

Synoptically, not too much of a change in the near term period.
Still monitoring the progression of a stalled boundary set to lift
back to the north as a warm front later this afternoon and cold
front back toward the Ohio River Valley. The warm front is currently
draped from Cumberland/Hancock, MD south to Culpeper/Fredericksburg,
VA. North of the boundary low clouds remain with temps ranging from
the low 50s over northeast MD to around 70 in northern VA. Areas
south of boundary have cleared out completely with deep
south/southwesterly mixing ongoing allowing temperatures to push
toward 80 degrees.

Not a drastic range in highs today as the CAD wedge erodes. Expect
most areas to see highs in the low to mid 80s while locations such
as northeast MD/mountains see highs in the 70s. A few showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may impact areas along and west of
the Blue Ridge this afternoon as the front lifts back to the north.
Some showers have been noted over western PA, north-central WV, and
far western MD earlier this morning as the front sits nearby. Expect
this area to have the greatest confidence for additional showers and
perhaps an isolated strong to severe t-storm this afternoon given
the presiding front and orographic lift from the terrain. Any
convection will gradually wane after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. South to southwest winds will gusts 15 to 25
mph this afternoon before decreasing a bit overnight.

Mild temperatures will continue tonight with widespread lows holding
in the upper 50s and low to mid 60s. We may even challenge a few
record high minimum temperatures at some sites (see Climate section
below for details). The warmth continues Saturday with highs likely
to push well into the 80s areawide. Mid to upper 80s cannot be ruled
out over the metros and across the central VA Piedmont due in part
to the lack of low cloud cover/fog compared to what we saw this
morning. Such temperatures would challenge record high temperatures
for the date (see Climate section). A few showers and thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out once again during the afternoon and evening
hours, especially west of the Blue Ridge. Once again coverage should
be low given the warm front to the north over central PA and
cold front still back across the eastern part of the Ohio River
Valley. Any storms that do get going could be strong to severe
given the increased instability and subtle shear across the
region. SPC continues a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for
locations along and west of I-81 with damaging winds and small
hail as the primary threats.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front moves through on Sunday,
bringing widespread rainfall, falling temperatures, and breezy
conditions.

Widespread rain chances return from west to east Easter Sunday as an
area of low pressure passes well to our north dragging it`s
associated cold front through the region. Current 12z
deterministic/ensemble guidance is a bit quicker with the incumbent
front and slightly lower on rain totals during the Sunday morning
and Sunday afternoon period.

Most of the guidance still illustrates a stratiform rain shield out
ahead of the boundary early Sunday morning which should limit any
severe weather threat. The front looks to push into the
Alleghenies and locations west of I-81 between 6-12z Sunday
before advancing east toward the metros and points east between
12-18z. Rain will be steady at times with overall amounts
between a quarter to a half an inch. Any rain will help given
ongoing drought concerns and continued green up across the
region. The front will push east of the area by mid to late
Sunday afternoon with breezy conditions and falling temperatures
in it`s wake. Expect highs ranging from the 50s over the
mountains to low 70s in the metro areas. Winds will shift to
the west to northwest behind the front, and skies should
gradually clear out from west to east. Much cooler air will
start to filter in by Sunday night, as temperatures fall back
into the 30s and 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Cooler temperatures expected next week along with
surface high pressure building over the Mid-Atlantic by midweek.

Low pressure passes to our north on Tuesday, followed closely by a
broad area of high pressure originating from Canada. This will
likely cause elevated surface winds throughout the region as that
gradient moves through. Zonal flow takes over after Wednesday, and
persistent high pressure will cause drier conditions as well as a
prolonged period of cooler temperatures. Highs by Wednesday will
likely range in the 50s, with lows potentially reaching well below
freezing for much of the region. Temperatures may start to increase
somewhat later in the week as a front passes to our north.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Still looking at pockets of IFR and LIFR conditions from KMTN points
north and east. Areas further south and east have improved with MVFR
in the corridor DCA down to EZF and VFR elsewhere across the region.
Expect VFR conditions for all terminals this afternoon (after 3pm)
as the warm front lifts north of the area. South to southwesterly
winds will occasionally gusts between 20 to 25 kts through the
afternoon before decreasing this evening. A stray shower cannot be
ruled out west of MRB, although most terminals will remain dry. Did
add in some fog at KMRB, KBWI, and KMTN due to the proximity near
the water. Similar conditions are expected Saturday with most
terminals remaining dry and wind gusts out of the south/southwest
upwards of 20 kts.

Sub-VFR conditions return with a strong cold front Sunday morning
into Sunday afternoon. The front will bring widespread rainfall to
the region from west to east across the terminals. The corridor will
see the greatest impacts from rain between 12-18z/8am-2pm Sunday.
Winds shift to the west and northwest in the wake of the front with
gusts up to 25 kts. VFR conditions return Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Northwest winds are expected across all terminals Monday and Tuesday
in the wake of a cold front. Winds blow 5 to 10 knots each day with
gusts between 15 and 20 knots in the afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected each day. Northwest winds will begin to shift southeasterly
from Tuesday night going into Wednesday as high pressure moves
into the region. Wind gusts at terminals could reach 20-25 knots
on Tuesday as a strong gradient pushes through, before
decreasing by Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs continue for all waters through this afternoon and for the main
channel of the bay through tonight. This is due in part to southerly
channeling under increased south to southwesterly flow. Gusts up to
25 kts are expected.  Winds remain southerly tonight through Sunday
morning, with additional SCAs likely Saturday afternoon through
Sunday morning. Winds shift to the west and northwest behind a
strong cold front on Sunday. Northwesterly flow continues through
the day Monday, with gusts potentially nearing low-end SCA levels
Monday morning.

Northwest winds gust up to 20 knots Monday morning with Small Craft
Advisories likely. Winds diminish in the afternoon through the
overnight. Northwest wind gusts up to 25 knots make SCAs likely
on Tuesday as a strong gradient pushes through. Winds will
shift southeasterly on Wednesday and will begin to decrease then
as high pressure moves into the region.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies continue to slowly increase within southerly flow, and
will remain slightly elevated through Saturday. A few locations may
reach Action stage over the next few tide cycles, but no flooding is
expected. Anomalies will decrease late Sunday into early next week
as winds turn northwesterly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures of 15 to 25 degrees above average are forecast for
through Saturday. Below is a list of record daily temperatures
for our regional climate sites.

Record Daily Highs for April 3
Site High/Year(s) Set
DCA 87/1963
BWI 88/1963
IAD 86/1981
DMH 89/1963
NAK 84/1912
HGR 85/1963
MRB 88/1963
CHO 88/1963

Record Daily High and Warm Lows for April 4
Site High/Year(s) Set Warm Low/Year(s) Set
DCA85/201166/1981
BWI 86/2011 63/1892
IAD85/201163/1981
DMH 87/201166/2025
NAK83/201160/2025
HGR81/201160/1974
MRB85/201163/1981
CHO88/201164/1974

     Period of Record (POR) context...

.Washington DC area (DCA)...
Weather records for the Washington DC area have been recorded
at what is now Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA)
since 1941. The official weather record consists of that data
back to 1945, and observations taken in downtown Washington from
1871 to 1944. Temperature records for the Washington DC area
extend back to January 1872.

.Baltimore MD area (BWI)...
Weather records for the Baltimore MD area have been recorded at
what is now Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood
Marshall Airport (KBWI) since 1950. The official weather record
consists of that data back to 1950, and observations taken in
downtown Baltimore from 1871 through 1949. Temperature records
for the Baltimore MD area extend back to July 1872.

.Sterling-Dulles Airport VA area (IAD)...
Weather records for the Sterling-Dulles Airport VA area have
been recorded at what is now Washington Dulles International
Airport (KIAD) since 1960. The official record consists solely
of data recorded at the airport.

.Baltimore Downtown MD area (DMH)...
Weather records for the Baltimore Downtown MD area have been
recorded at what is now the Maryland Science Center (KDMH)
since 1999. The official weather record consists of that data
back to 1999, and observations taken in the City of Baltimore
from July 1950 through 1998. Data is missing from June 3 of 2020
through August 14 of 2022 when the observing system had to be
removed due to a large construction project.

.Annapolis MD area (NAK)...
Weather records for the Annapolis MD area have been recorded at
what is now the Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy (KNAK) since
October 11 of 2001. The official weather record consists of that
data back to 2001, and observations that were taken between the
Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy and the Annapolis Police Barracks
from July of 1894 through October 10 of 2001.

.Hagerstown MD area (HGR)....
Weather records for the Hagerstown MD area have been recorded at
what is now Hagerstown Regional Airport (KHGR) since October of
1998. The official weather record consists of that data back to
October of 1998, and observations taken one mile east of
Hagerstown from 1899 through September of 1998.

.Martinsburg WV area (MRB)...
Weather records for the Martinsburg WV area have been recorded
at what is now Eastern West Virginia Regional Airport/Shepherd
Field (KMRB) since 1938. The official weather record consists of
that data back to 1944, and observations taken in downtown
Martinsburg from 1891 through 1943.

.Charlottesville VA area (CHO)...
Weather records for the Charlottesville VA area have been
recorded at what is now Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport (KCHO)
since April 20 of 1961. The official weather record consists of
that data back to April 20 of 1961, and observations taken two
miles west of downtown Charlottesville from 1983 through April
19 of 1961.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     535>538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ531>534-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJP/EST/SRT
AVIATION...KJP/EST/SRT
MARINE...KJP/EST/SRT