Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

783
FXUS61 KLWX 050450
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1250 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Patchy fog has developed mainly west of the metros thus far.
Issued a Frost Advisory for mountain zones where highest
confidence in frost tonight. Could be expanded eastward into
some valley locales today. Also issued a Small Craft for gusty
winds behind the cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Patchy fog this morning, with the potential for frost and
  freezing conditions west of the Blue Ridge tonight through
  Tuesday night.

- 2) Dry finish to the work week before rain chances return late
  in the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy fog this morning, with the potential for
frost and freezing conditions west of the Blue Ridge tonight
through Tuesday night.

Patchy fog has been observed mainly west of the metros at this
time. Guidance continues to be bullish on fog development
through daybreak before the front arrives. Right now the fog is
patchy so no headlines have been issued, but will.

Any lingering cloud cover should erode as a cold front sweeps
through the area early this morning giving way to sun. NW winds
pick up behind the front with afternoon gusts to around 20 to
25 mph. A strong area of Canadian high pressure pushes in from
the Midwest this afternoon before settling over the local area
tonight. This sets the stages for the first widespread frost
event, mainly west of the Blue Ridge. High elevation valleys
could even near the freezing mark. For east of the Blue Ridge,
forecast lows will be in the 40s.

High pressure maintains its influence over the area on Tuesday
which brings cool temps, lighter winds, and sunny skies.
Tue night also looks chilly, but fcst temps have come up a tad
given light sly flow around the departing high. At this point
temps would be just mild enough to avoid another frost event.
For most, the fcst lows are in the low/mid 40s.

Remaining dry Wed with high pressure continuing to move east
yielding a S`ly return flow. Temps Wed into the 70s for most,
cooler in the mtns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry finish to the work week before rain chances
return late in the weekend.

The northern branch of the jet stream remains amplified throughout
the mid/late week period. One embedded sw will drive another
dry cold front through the region on Thu before another round
of high pressure returns by Fri and into portions of next
weekend. This maintains the dry weather pattern through at least
Sat. Initial high temps start off in the mid/upper 70s on
Thu before falling back into the 60s to low 70s for the
weekend. Overnight conditions remain seasonable without any
threat of frost or freeze at this time.

The pattern late in the weekend becomes more interesting as a
disturbance across the Gulf of America lifts nwrd toward the
Gulf Coast region. Depending on what remains of this feature and
the quality of the moisture, an uptick in rainfall chances can
be expected for Sun. The latest forecast package calls for a 30
to 50 percent chance of rain, but high uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR ceilings will remain a fixture in the forecast for the
remainder of the night. The CAD wedge maintains its presence
over the region with continued low stratus and prevailing N to
NE`ly winds. Also monitoring some fog, but it is patchy
currently. Restrictions should eventually lift just before
daybreak as a cold front tracks through. Thereafter, VFR
conditions are expected as Canadian high pressure moves in from
the Midwest states. NW`ly winds this afternoon could gust up to
20 to 25 knots, particularly during the afternoon hours. Winds
eventually turn lighter and more variable on Tue with high
pressure in place. Winds S`ly Wed but light.

VFR conditions can be expected for both Thu and Fri which comes
with a dry weather pattern. Winds shift to NW`ly in response to
a passing cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
N to NE`ly winds are currently gusting around 5 to 10 knots.
Any increase in marine winds do not occur until the second half
the morning in response to a cold front. This boundary crosses
the waters after daybreak with a shift to mainly W to NW`ly
flow. Gusts up to 20 knots are expected for this afternoon
through much of the overnight hours. Have issued SCA`s for all
waters. These may need extended in time tonight. Winds turn
lighter into Tue with high pressure overhead. Winds light out of
S on Wed.

Winds stay below advisory levels during the mid/late week period. A
cold front tracks through Thu which yields a shift from SW`ly
winds over to mainly north to NW`ly flow into Fri.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain elevated. This is bringing some of the
more sensitive locations into Action stage, with Minor tidal
flooding at Annapolis. The forecast ahead shows anomalies
remaining elevated through daybreak before post-frontal
NW winds begin to lower water levels a bit this morning.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ014.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     VAZ503-504.
WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     WVZ501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/CPB
AVIATION...BRO/CPB
MARINE...BRO/CPB