Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

984
FXUS61 KLWX 072010
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
310 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have fine-tuned the hourly forecast to show a secondary peak in
winds through sundown. Otherwise, dangerous cold and damaging
wind gusts continue into the evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dangerous, life-threatening cold and blustery conditions through
  Sunday morning.

- 2) Blowing snow continues in the Alleghenies.

- 3) Warmer temperatures return Monday and Tuesday with multiple
  chances of wintry precipitation mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous, life-threatening cold and blustery
conditions through Sunday morning.

A strong low pressure system located offshore paired with
Arctic high pressure moving in from Canada continues to yield a
tight pressure gradient over the forecast area through Sunday
morning. Wind gusts will remain steady at 45-55 mph through
this evening before gradually tapering off after dark.

Wind chills will remain below zero through at least late Sunday
morning. For the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge, wind chills bottom
out between -20F to -30F. Elsewhere, wind chills of 0F to -20F
are expected.

This is only the second Extreme Cold Warning (along with its
predecessor - Wind Chill Warning) issued for the immediate DC
and Baltimore metro areas (as far back as WWA records go).

Cannot stress enough the impact these wind chills and strong to
damaging winds will have. Tree and powerline damage is
possible. Any power outages might last several days as crews
may not be able to repair infrastructure until winds and wind
chills decrease on Sunday, or until snow/ice cover melts.

Anyone without proper clothing will be at risk of frostbite in
as little as 30 minutes, especially in the mountains.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Blowing snow continues in the Alleghenies.

Winter weather headlines have expired with only light additional
amounts of snow. However, extreme cold, high winds, and blowing
snow will remain a threat through at least Sunday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer temperatures return Monday and Tuesday with
multiple chances of wintry precipitation mid to late next week.

The Arctic outbreak finally relinquishes its grip upon the
region early next week. Longwave troughing will continue to exit
east into the Atlantic with 500mb ridging building overhead and
high pressure at the surface. Westerly warm air advection
within the 850-700 mb level will yield temperatures at or above
freezing Monday and well above freezing heading into midweek - a
significant achievement in the sense of our prolonged cold
outbreak for much of January into the start of February. Let the
thaw begin with highs Monday in the upper 20s and low 30s
across northeast/central MD and mid 30s to low 40s elsewhere
across the region. Temperatures warm even further Tuesday with
upper 30s and low 40s across northeast/central MD and mid 40s to
mid 50s across central VA/valleys in the Alleghenies as a warm
front lifts into the region.

The warmer air will be short-lived with temperatures back close
to normal Wednesday as a cold frontal boundary pushes through.
This front will send temperatures back into the upper 30s and
mid 40s outside the mountains. As the front tracks toward the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday, precipitation could begin as
a light wintry mix due to residual cold air locked in east of
the mountains. However, as mentioned, this will depend on
whether surface temperatures can stay below freezing or not.
Eventually, temperatures gradually warm through Wednesday
morning which would shift precipitation over to rain. Confidence
continues to remain low for frozen precipitation midweek and
medium for rainfall based on the current 6z/12z deterministic
and ensemble guidance. Flooding also does not initially appear
to be a concern given the recent drought, although excess runoff
is possible with residual snow/sleet pack.

A stronger storm system may impact the area late next week (in
particularly during the Thursday through Saturday timeframe). The
cold front from Wednesday will stall down around the Gulf Coast
states with several waves of low pressure set to caravan along it
late next week into next weekend. The track and intensity of
these low pressure systems remain uncertain as deterministic and
ensemble guidance continue the "windshield wiper effect" of
advertising a winter/rain storm or no storm across the region.
Latest guidance suggest a system that passes just to the south
and toward the coast with uncertainty in regards to
temperatures, precipitation types, and amounts this far out.
Continue to closely monitor the forecast as it will continue to
change heading toward the Valentine`s Day holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds gradually decrease this evening and into the overnight,
although gusts between 25-35kts continue overnight.

Northwest winds continue to diminish on Sunday, gusting 15 to
25 knots in the morning before gusting around 15 knots in the
afternoon. Winds become light Sunday night, blowing 5-10 knots
and remain light on Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected across all terminals.

VFR conditions are likely for Monday and Tuesday with high pressure
nearby. Winds will remain between 5 to 10 kts out of the west and
northwest Monday before changing to the south Tuesday. Some sub-VFR
restrictions are possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday as
precipitation overspreads the area. Some of this precip may start
out as a brief wintry mix before changing to rain late Wednesday
morning into early Wednesday afternoon. Expect improvements
Wednesday afternoon and night with additional sub-VFR reductions
late in the week. Confidence in the late week storm system is low
based upon the timing, track, and intensity.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale conditions may persist much of the night. Winds diminish
to Small Craft Advisory criteria on Sunday. On Monday, winds
diminish further and remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
throughout the day. Freezing spray should abate late tonight as
winds gradually subside.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected Monday through Wednesday.
Winds will switch from the west and northwest Monday back to the
south Tuesday and northwest Wednesday. Speeds will remain
between 5 to 10 kts. The mild air on top of cold/icy waters
will keep sharp temperature inversions in place which would
limit overall mixing potential. Along and behind a cold front,
gusts up to 15 knots or so are possible heading into Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Blowout tides are expected late through low tide Sunday morning due
to strong offshore northwesterly flow. Water levels are forecast to
drop to -2FT MLLW north of the Bay Bridge and in the upper tidal
Potomac River, with -1 FT MLLW elsewhere. Low Water Advisories
are in effect for all waters. With high ice concentrations in
the northern/middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac River,
expect the potential for damage to docks, moorings, and boats,
etc. given the blowout of water/ice blocks away from the shore.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for DCZ001.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ003>006-008-
     011-013-014-018-501>510.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ003>006-
     008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ016-017.
     High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ501-510.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ509.
VA...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ025>031-053-
     054-501-503>508-526-527.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ025>031-
     053-054-501-504>506-526-527.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ036>040-
     050-051-055>057-502.
     High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ503-507-
     508.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ036>040-050-
     051-055>057-502.
WV...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504-506.
     High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 11 AM EST Sunday for ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539.
     Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530>543.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ532-533-
     542.
     Low Water Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ534-
     537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/DHOF/EST
AVIATION...AVS/DHOF/EST
MARINE...AVS/DHOF/EST