Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

476
FXUS61 KLWX 120802
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
402 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast. A cold front across the Virginia
Piedmont will linger across south-central Virginia today into
tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms could accompany the front
across southern parts of Virginia.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and a few thunderstorms, some strong, will develop
  along a cold front from eastern West Virginia to central
  Virginia today into tonight.

- 2) Increasing heat and humidity are expected during the middle
  of the week.

- 3) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible by the end of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and a few thunderstorms, some strong,
will develop along a cold front from eastern West Virginia to
central Virginia today into tonight.

A cold front extends from eastern West Virginia to the Tidewater
of Virginia. Sprinkles have been along the front for a few hours
now but nothing heavy. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
develop along and on both sides of the front during the course
of midday into early evening. A few storms could be on the
strong side and produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Most of the
heavier showers and strong thunderstorms should be mainly from
Franklin, WV to Harrisonburg, VA to Fredericksburg, VA and
locations to the south. Isolated instances of flash flooding
could also occur and be mainly across the central Shenandoah
Valley and Virginia Piedmont. WPC keeps these areas in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Additional showers and
storms could be more isolated on the north side of the front and
reach some of the metro areas around Washington D.C., Arlington,
and Alexandria. Around mid-evening this evening, nearly all
areas except for the central Shenandoah Valley should be free of
showers and thunderstorms.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat and humidity are expected during the
middle of the week.

Upper high centered over the nation`s mid section early in the week
is expected to expand eastward Tuesday and Wednesday. More sunshine
will support highs on Tuesday warming into the upper 80s and lower
90s. At this time, Wednesday appears like the hottest day with mid
to perhaps upper 90s. While heat index values could top 100, it
won`t be as hot as it was during the first weekend of July.

The ridge may retreat westward toward the end of the week as an
upper level low drops into eastern Canada. The temperature forecast
remains a bit uncertain, but at least a couple more days in the 90s
are possible. A cold front could drop down from the north by the
end of the week.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible by the
end of the week.

Heights will fall in association with the eastern Canada closed low
during the second half of the week, and there will be moderate flow
aloft between this feature and the midcontinent ridge. In addition,
a cold front may drop south toward the area. With a hot and humid
airmass remaining south of the front, this will provide an
opportunity for thunderstorms (and possibly an MCS) to develop along
this corridor. Any such thunderstorms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds. However, confidence is very low given uncertainties
in the timing and placement of any forcing mechanisms. At this time,
the chances for thunderstorms are greatest Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at the terminals today through Tuesday.
A couple of heavy showers and a thunderstorm near the CHO
terminal could briefly reduce conditions to MVFR this afternoon
and early evening. Winds will be out of the east today, then
southeast Monday and Tuesday.

VFR conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday under high
pressure.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will turn out of the east today. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect for the Lower Tidal Potomac and our
southernmost Bay zones later this afternoon through much of
Monday night. Lighter winds are expected further north.

Great boating weather is expected Monday through mid week with
no thunderstorm potential. SCA conditions are likely Monday, but
winds will be diminishing by Monday evening.

With high pressure nearby, sub-advisory winds are currently expected
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated water levels will persist for the next couple of days
with minor coastal flooding becoming increasingly likely Monday
into Tuesday as southerly flow strengthens.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW/KJP
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/KJP
MARINE...ADS/KLW/KJP