Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

156
FXUS61 KLWX 121932
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
332 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Locally heavy snow is resulting in slushy roadway accumulations
this afternoon. The Wind Advisory for Friday was expanded by
several zones in the Potomac Highlands. There was a 15 percent
severe weather outlook issued for Day 5/Monday for a large part
of the forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Locally heavy snow will move east of I-95 this afternoon,
  resulting in spotty slush on roadways.

- 2) Another frontal system will bring strong southerly winds
  on Friday.

- 3) Another strong cold front will arrive early next week,
  bringing strong winds and the potential for severe
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Locally heavy snow will move east of I-95 this
afternoon, resulting in spotty slush on roadways.

Impressive dynamics with the combination of an upper jet streak
and mid level trough producing heavy precipitation rates today.
This resulted in 3-plus inches of snow in 4 hours along the
Blue Ridge and temperatures cooling to near freezing in the
lower elevations despite being the middle of the day. Where
heavier snow bands persisted, some roadway slush has been noted,
even in the immediate Washington DC area. Otherwise,
accumulations are largely on grassy and elevated surfaces. This
moderate to heavy snow is now pushing east of I-95, and should
exit the area by 6 PM. Clearing is pushing in from the west, and
increased mixing as the low levels dry out will aid in snow
melting fairly quickly for the remainder of the afternoon.

Winds diminish quickly this evening as high pressure slides by
to the south. Subfreezing low temperatures will return to much
of the forecast area tonight. While moisture will have some
opportunity to evaporate this evening, can`t totally rule out
some refreeze issues in places the precipitation ends last.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Another frontal system will bring strong
southerly winds on Friday.

Another low pressure system will be moving through the Great
Lakes Friday. The increased pressure gradient will result in
gusty southwesterly winds developing. The strongest winds are
likely in the higher elevations, where a Wind Advisory remains
in effect. Several zones across the Potomac Highlands were added
during the daytime hours as there is a consistent signal in the
guidance for the strong southwesterly winds to downslope in
these areas. There is actually some concern some of the higher
peaks in the Alleghenies could have gusts around 60 mph at
times. Given the warm advection pattern (which is less conducive
to downward transport of winds), confidence was not high enough
for an upgrade to a warning at this time. There could be a
light shower or sprinkle across northern areas Friday as the
warm frontal lift passes, but overall this will be a dry system.

The cold front will push through Friday night with high
pressure building in from the west Saturday. Overall there will
be minimal impacts on temperatures. In fact, temperatures will
likely remain slightly above average through Saturday. Westerly
winds may be a bit gusty Saturday across northern areas, but not
as strong as Friday. See section below for fire weather concerns
this could present.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Another strong cold front will arrive early next
week, bringing strong winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms.

A warm front will lift toward the area Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system moving into the Great Lakes. Most of the day
should remain dry, but showers will likely move into the area
Sunday night. Increasing southeast to south winds will keep
temperatures above normal.

A strong cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across
the western Great Lks will cross the area Monday. Better moisture
recovery is expected ahead of this front compared to the one Friday
night to result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Model trends during the past 24 hrs have shown lower pressure values
locally across the area, stronger wind speeds aloft, and better
destabilization resulting in an increasing threat for severe
weather. The storm mode looks mostly linear this time as opposed to
supercells, but the magnitude of the 850-500 mb winds is 20-30 kt
stronger than it was yesterday (Wednesday). While the kinematics
look a lot stronger with this next system, there is still a high
degree of uncertainty with the thermodynamic environment and the
exact timing of the frontal passage with recent trends showing an
earlier frontal passage prior to peak diurnal heating. Regardless of
severe weather, strong winds will accompany this front both in the
pre-frontal and post-frontal environment.

Afterwards, longwave trough pattern will establish across the East
with strong sfc high pressure settling in keeping a much colder than
normal pattern for the middle and second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1930Z, snow is pushing east of the TAF sites. Some MVFR to
IFR ceilings are lingering briefly, but expect rapidly improving
conditions for the remainder of the afternoon. As clouds begin
to decrease, northwesterly winds may become gusty for a time
again, but should quickly subside after sunset.

Expect VFR conditions Friday into Saturday. The bigger story
will be the gusty southwesterly winds on Friday ahead of another
strong cold front. Gusts around 25 to 35 knots are expected
before winds shift to west-northwesterly Friday night into
Saturday. Some gusts to around 20 kt will likely continue
through Saturday afternoon.

Expect sub-VFR ceilings and rain showers by Sunday night as a
warm front lifts through the area. Strong cdfnt forecast to
cross the area Monday with showers and thunderstorms and
strong winds in both the pre-frontal and post- frontal
environment.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front has pushed south of the waters. Rain and
snow have resulted in stable air and reduced winds as the
heaviest rates are moving across the area this afternoon. After
the precipitation clears, expect a return to advisory conditions
in NW flow. However, those winds will likely be decreasing
fairly quickly this evening as high pressure builds to the
south.

Ahead of the next cold front, southwesterly winds will increase
Friday. SCAs are likely. While gusts could approach gale force,
think the wind direction and relatively cooler waters will
prevent the stronger winds from reaching the surface due to low
level stability. The cold front will push through late Friday
night. Advisory conditions in westerly flow may persist through
Saturday afternoon, especially across the northern waters.

Southeasterly winds will begin increasing Sunday as a warm front
lifts toward the area. Advisories will likely be needed. SCA
condtions likely continue through the middle of next week ahead
and behind potent cold front fcst to cross the area Monday.
Gales are possible Monday afternoon and night in both the pre-
frontal and post-frontal environment. Special Marine Warnings
may also be required Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday and Saturday look somewhat concerning in regards to fire
weather, although fuel moisture will be a limiting factor.
Except for some isolated areas in the Shenandoah Valley and
Potomac Highlands, most of the area will have received a quarter
inch of precipitation over the past couple of days.

With that said, a dry frontal system will be approaching the
region Friday before moving through Friday night. Ahead of
that, very strong southerly winds pick up. The air mass will
be extremely dry, and could be locally enhanced in downslope
flow west of the Blue Ridge. Current forecast has low to mid 20s
RHs in the typical drier valleys.

Saturday may actually be the driest day, behind the frontal passage
from Friday night. RH values could drop into the teens to 20s across
much of the area. Winds will be on the decline, but will remain
somewhat elevated, especially along/north of the interstate 66
corridor, where 15-25 mph wind gusts can be expected.

Gusty winds but increasing RHs are forecast Sunday ahead of
another front, which looks to bring wetting rains Sunday
evening/night. There is less of a threat Sunday, but any ongoing
fires could feel the impacts of some gusty southeasterly flow
(20-30 mph gusts).

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday
     for MDZ008.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
     MDZ501-509-510.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for MDZ502.
VA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
     VAZ503.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for VAZ507-508.
WV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
     WVZ501-503-505.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ050-055-502-
     504-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday
     for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR