Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

350
FXUS61 KLWX 150800
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded to a Moderate Risk of
severe thunderstorms on Monday. This is in response to the
stronger than usual signal of damaging winds, some of which
could be significant in nature. A few tornadoes are also
possible given the degree of vertical shear. Otherwise, have
extended Small Craft Advisories across all waters through early
Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong cold front pushes across the forecast area Monday,
  bringing gusty winds and potential for severe thunderstorms
  capable of producing significant damaging winds and tornadoes.

- 2) Below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and
  Wednesday before seasonable weather returns for the remainder
  of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front pushes across the forecast area
Monday, bringing gusty winds and potential for severe thunderstorms
capable of producing significant damaging winds and tornadoes.

In the near term, the key features in play are an anticyclone
across the interior northeastern U.S. and a stalled boundary
over central North Carolina. Through the day, this dome of high
pressure pushes across New England and eventually into the
offshore waters. At the same time, the frontal zone slowly sags
southward before making its return to the north. The net result
of these synoptic features will usher in a southeasterly wind
which ultimately helps moisten the lower atmosphere. Although
the frontal zone eventually settles over the southeastern U.S.,
expect an abrupt northward movement of this system as a warm
front. This is in response to deep-layered southerly flow ahead
of a strong cyclone center tracking across the Great Lakes
region. By around midnight, the forecast brings this front just
south of the I-66/U.S. 50 corridor before crossing the Mason-
Dixon Line ahead of daybreak Monday.

A band of showers accompanies this warm frontal passage tonight.
This comes with low clouds and continued breezy southeasterly
winds. Depending on how quickly this boundary can lift north of
the area, some residual stratus may linger across the Mid-
Atlantic region on Monday morning. These should gradually scour
out though ahead of the powerful cold front off to the west.
Once this occurs, a more robust pre-frontal southerly wind
overspreads the region. Outside of any thunderstorms, expect
southerly gusts to around 25 to 35 mph, locally nearing 45 to 50
mph in the mountains.

As an upper low gradually closes off near Lake Michigan, a
shortwave begins to sharpen over the Mid-South midday Monday. As
this trough pivots toward the East Coast, it begins to attain a
negative tilt which will be conducive to further strengthening
of the frontal system. Based on the forecast parameter spaces,
the resultant severe weather aspect has a rather high ceiling in
terms of impacts. Consequently, the Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has upgraded to a quite rare Day 2 Moderate Risk area,
mainly along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. This is
largely driven by the potential of widespread damaging winds,
some of which could be significant in nature, as well as a
tornado risk.

Once any earlier low stratus are scoured out, expect ample
diurnal heating as temperatures rise into the upper 60s to low
70s. Prolonged south to southeasterly flow should also raise dew
points into the upper 50s to low 60s. The seasonably warm/moist
low-levels coupled by strong forcing aloft and cyclonic turning
of the winds with height will make for a very active convective
day. While the degree of vertical shear is impressive on its own
(0-6 km values around 55 to 65 knots), this comes with more than
sufficient buoyancy levels as surface-based CAPE values push
into the 500 to 750 J/kg range. The shear/instability
combination will be conducive to supercell development,
particularly for any discrete cells that form ahead of a likely
squall line. Additionally, the degree of deep-layer shear should
make this more of a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) which
will be capable of tornadogenesis. Aside from any tornado risk,
the strong cloud-bearing level winds should easily mix down in
convective downdrafts. With 850-700 mb winds around 60-70 knots,
any of this higher momentum air being transferred to the surface
could yield surface wind gusts into the 65 to 75 mph range.
Thus, SPC has a broad area of significant damaging wind
potential (45-74%) advertised from I-81 eastward in their latest
outlook.

With high-resolution models showing 3 to 6 hour differences in
convective timing, there is still some uncertainty in how this
all plays out. However, expect to be on alert for active weather
from early Monday afternoon through much of the evening. All
related activity races off to the east, some of which may be
comprised of storm elements tracking eastward on the order of 45
to 50 mph. While not everyone sees a severe thunderstorm, the
overall spatial coverage should be higher than normal.

By Monday night, a post-frontal air mass pushes across the
region with a rapid cool down in temperatures. This will lead to
some upslope aided snow showers along/west of the Allegheny
Front. Depending on how much moisture can be advected off the
unfrozen portions of the Great Lakes, around 1 to 3 inches are
possible through early Tuesday. Some global models show these
spilling off the mountains toward the urban corridors. As such,
will maintain light snow accumulations for locations east of
the Allegheny Front.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday
and Wednesday before seasonable weather returns for the
remainder of the week.

It will feel like a cold and blustery winter day Tuesday in the wake
of the strong cold front with upper troughing overhead. High
temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal across much of
the area. Wind chill values will be in the 20s and lower 30s. The
latest forecasts for wind gusts would fall in the 30 to 40 mph
range, but can`t rule out some stronger gusts closer to Wind
Advisory criteria in the mountains. It will also be mostly cloudy
across much of the area, with some occasional upslope snow showers
in the Alleghenies. Tuesday will be the coldest night of the stretch
as winds drop off and high pressure builds overhead. Forecast lows
range from the mid teens to mid 20s.

Wednesday will be slightly warmer and with much less wind, but
temperatures will still be below normal. A weak wave could bring
some upslope snow showers to the Alleghenies Wednesday or Wednesday
night.

Temperatures will continue to moderate for the latter part of the
week with near normal temperatures Thursday and above normal Friday.
A low pressure system will pass to the north toward the weekend, but
it`s uncertain if it will bring any rain, as well as whether there
is a return to colder temperatures behind it or not.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through around sundown today with
dry weather. The combination of high pressure around New England
and a frontal zone across the Carolinas will lead to prolonged
southeasterly winds. These become a bit breezier in nature into
tonight as warm advection showers track northward with a warm
front. Expect ceilings to lower through the night with IFR
conditions likely at all terminals this evening and continuing
into portions of Monday morning. Additionally, increasing wind
aloft will introduce 40 to 45 knots of low-level southeasterly
wind shear.

Monday has the potential of producing rather widespread severe
waether across the area. Although improving ceilings should
yield VFR conditions by around midday, severe thunderstorms are
expected to race eastward through the afternoon/evening on
Monday. While background southerlies may gust to around 25 to 30
knots, any of the more powerful thunderstorms will be capable of
producing 55 to 65 knot wind gusts as well as a few tornadoes.
The convective risk drops off from west to east as a strong cold
front pushes through the region. VFR conditions are expected to
return for Monday night with a blustery northwesterly wind.

VFR conditions are likely Tuesday through Thursday. Northwest winds
gust around 25-30 knots for much of Tuesday morning to afternoon,
then winds diminish Tuesday night. Light southerly winds are
expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeasterly winds are expected to increase today given the
combination of high pressure near New England and a stalled
frontal zone over the Carolinas. Small Craft Advisories go into
effect across all marine zones at 9 AM this morning, while
continuing through 6 AM Monday. However, these will be extended
into subsequent days ahead of a seasonably strong cold front.
Small Craft Advisories are likely needed throughout Monday, but
some gale potential is there as well. The limiting factor is the
60s to low 70s air temperatures on top of waters in the 40s.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to impact the waterways late
Monday afternoon and into the evening. Special Marine Warnings
are expected for many of the thunderstorms, some of which could
produce waterspouts. The stronger storms will be capable of
marine wind gusts to around 55 to 65 knots. Any convective risk
ends late Monday behind a strong cold front. Advisory to near
gale caliber winds continue as winds shift to northwesterly on
Monday night.

Small Craft Advisories remain likely Tuesday in gusty westerly
flow. A high end scenario would be close to gale conditions.
Winds will diminish Tuesday night as high pressure builds
overhead. Light south winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Increasing southerly winds ahead of a powerful cold front will cause
a quick rise in tide levels across the Chesapeake Bay and tidal
Potomac River. Sensitive locations are likely to reach or be close
to minor flood during the Monday afternoon/evening high tide.
Annapolis is forecast to be well within minor flood stage, and could
reach moderate flooding if southerly flow is stronger as some of the
model guidance suggests. If confidence increases, a Coastal Flood
Watch may need to be issued this morning. Water levels quickly
drop Monday night as offshore winds take hold behind the front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday
     for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO
AVIATION...ADS/BRO
MARINE...ADS/BRO