Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

828
FXUS61 KLWX 061846
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
246 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast from what was issued this
morning, just added details in Key Message 2 regarding potential
storms on Thursday. Uncertainty remains high at this point, but
given the right timing of the frontal passage, a severe threat
could unfold.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures and lower
  humidity today into early parts of the week.

- 2) Shower and thunderstorm chances return by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures
and lower humidity Sunday into early next week.

Broad high pressure over the Great Lakes will track over the
Mid-Atlantic through Monday. This will bring a change in
airmass with notably lower dew points. Highs in the low 80s for
most today and Monday. Overnight lows in the 50s and low 60s.

Surface high pressure begins to transition south of the Mid-
Atlantic on Tuesday as upper level ridging builds over the
southeast CONUS. Temperatures likely begin to creep up again
during this time, accompanied by increasing humidity as mid-
level dry air tracks south of the region with more humid air
coming in from the north.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances return by mid week.

Upper-level ridging over the Appalachians starts to flatten into
zonal flow beginning Wednesday. As this occurs, a trough forming
over Quebec will begin to track east across the northeast CONUS,
with a stemming cold front moving across the East Coast by Thursday.
Temperatures gradually increase during this time, along with
increasing humidity ahead of the front. By Thursday, temps
potentially reach the upper 80s to low 90s.

As this frontal boundary tracks through the Mid-Atlantic, showers
& thunderstorms are possible across the region, beginning Wednesday
evening and into Thursday. The 12z guidance remains unclear in
terms of timing and the exact evolution of this system, so a lot
of uncertainties remain. There is general agreement in trough
digging south into the region, but the exact strength and
timing of that trough is still being ironed out. Temperatures
Thursday are expected to be in the 80s to near 90, with dew
point in the 60s to perhaps low 70s. This should yield plenty of
CAPE south of the front itself and allow for at least some
thunderstorm development if the forcing arrives near peak
heating. The severe threat is still in question, but remains
non-zero. If the trough tracks far enough south, there could be
a fair amount of wind shear to work with as well, which would
increase that severe threat. Some of the AI guidance
(particularly the WxNext) do highlight our region, so it is
certainly something to keep a close eye on. Will continue to
monitor latest guidance in hopes of honing in on a more
confident solution.

As this cold front transitions offshore towards the end of next
week, temps drop again & conditions become much drier heading into
the weekend as high pressure moves in overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light showers and drizzle linger near CHO this morning, and will
likely continue to do so over the next couple hours. This should
taper off into the early afternoon.

Thereafter, VFR conditions should persist through Wednesday
evening.

Showers & thunderstorms associated with an incoming cold front
could temporarily bring sub-VFR conditions to terminals by
Thursday afternoon. Ahead of the front on Thursday, winds could
gust between 20-25 knots before diminishing overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through the holiday weekend.
Generally light flow is expected, though onshore gusts could
approach marginal SCA levels late this afternoon. Currently
favoring a Marine Weather Statement given brief duration.

Northeasterly winds Monday shift southerly on Tuesday,
remaining below SCA levels.

SCAs are possible across the Bay by Wednesday evening ahead of
an incoming cold front. Winds could remain elevated throughout
Thursday as this frontal boundary tracks east across the coast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain elevated over the next several days due
to an onshore flow. Minor tidal flooding is becoming
increasingly likely at Annapolis, and could also be possible in
the other sensitive tidal locations in the northern Chesapeake
Bay. Will continue to monitor as the current high tide ends and
transitions to low tide. If the forecast holds, may need to
issue an advisory later this evening.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/CPB
AVIATION...CJL/CPB
MARINE...CJL/CPB