Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

764
FXUS61 KLWX 020137
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
937 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory was issued for most of the waters through
3 AM. Small changes made to align forecast with latest
obs/model trends through tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Freezing temperatures likely and patchy to widespread frost
  possible Saturday night into early Sunday, especially west of
  the Blue Ridge Mountains.

- 2) Showers remain possible at times next week as temperatures
  rise to near or above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Freezing temperatures likely and patchy to
widespread frost possible Saturday night into early Sunday,
especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

A cold front moving through the area tonight will reinforce the
cool airmass across the area. Scattered showers are occurring
along the front, but deep moisture is lacking and a residual
deep, dry boundary layer will lead to evaporation as well. Thus
while a lot of places across the northern half of the area could
see some rain drops over the next several hours, it will likely
be difficult to record more than a few hundredths of an inch.
The higher Allegheny Mountains are already dropping into the
30s, and advection alone will likely bring the taller ridges
near or slightly below freezing later tonight. Held off on
issuing a Freeze Warning for tonight since these conditions will
largely be confined to the ridgetops, and cloud cover and
gusty northwest winds will prevent frost formation.

Below average temperatures expected each day and each night
through the weekend. The coldest night given clearing skies and
light winds will be Saturday night into early Sunday.
Temperatures should be cold enough that we will be looking at
Freezing temperatures and possible areas of Frost west of the
Blue Ridge. Conditions will be more ideal Saturday night for
the Freeze headlines. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the
western zones of Garrett and western Allegany, western Mineral,
western Grant, Pendleton and Highland Counties Saturday night
and into early Sunday. In terms of weather, most areas will be
dry as rain from a coastal low should largely remain to the
southeast. A few rain or even snow showers could affect the
Allegheny Mountains as a trough axis crosses on Saturday.
Temperatures will be cool during the day with highs in the
upper 50s to middle 60s, not just this afternoon but each day
through Sunday.

Flow turns southerly Sunday night, which will lead to airmass
moderation. However, dew points remain near or below freezing
west of the Blue Ridge, so valleys which decouple could see some
patchy frost.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers remain possible at times next week as
temperatures rise to near or above normal.

A closed low will remain centered near the Great Lakes early
next week. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will
become positioned in the western Atlantic. Southerly winds will
become a bit gusty during the daytime, and the ensuing warm
advection will bring temperatures back closer to or even above
normal. Some areas could reach 80 on Tuesday. There are some
uncertainties with how exactly the trough evolves, but a frontal
zone will be slowly approaching from the northwest Monday and
Tuesday. Some showers could reach the northwestern half of the
forecast area as embedded shortwaves pivot through, but overall
these days should be drier.

At some point during the middle of the week, a digging shortwave
trough will amplify the pattern and push the cold front across
the area. This front will bring higher rain chances, and
depending on timing, potentially thunderstorms. Temperatures
will trend back down the second half of the week in the wake of
the front.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front is crossing the area this evening. Scattered light
rain showers/sprinkles likely won`t reduce visibility that much.
Ceilings will lower for a time through the night but should
remain VFR. Locations holding on to a south/southeast wind will
shift to the west and northwest as the front crosses. There
could be a few gusts to 20 kt shortly after sunrise Saturday.
Otherwise broken mid and high level clouds will persist through
the day as an upper trough passes and a coastal low passes to
the southeast.

Northwest winds increase on Sunday with gusts 15-20 knots
expected in the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected each day.

Southerly winds will gust to 20 kt during the daytime Monday and
Tuesday. A shower or thunderstorm may reach MRB on Tuesday ahead of
an approaching frontal zone. Otherwise VFR conditions are
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the waters
through 3 AM for gust south/southeast winds. A cold front will
cross overnight, shifting winds to the northwest. There are some
indications for a surge of winds behind this front into Saturday
morning, but it is marginal and brief enough that confidence is
not high enough to extend the Small Craft Advisory. Similarly,
the waters will be on the northwestern periphery of a coastal
low, with some uncertainty if the middle bay could be near
advisory criteria in the afternoon. As a reinforcing cold front
crosses late Saturday, additional Small Craft Advisories are
likely Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest winds gusting up to
25 knots across the waters are possible.

Small Craft Advisories will be likely Monday and Tuesday in
southerly flow.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of gusty southerly winds and a developing
coastal low are pushing water levels higher tonight. Annapolis
in particular will be very close to minor flood stage with the
Saturday morning high tide.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
     for MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
     for VAZ503-504.
WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
     for WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ531>534-
     537>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KLW