Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

155
FXUS61 KLWX 110711
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
311 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a Heat Advisory for areas near and east of I-95 from
northeast to southern Maryland (including Baltimore and DC) as
well as the northern neck of Virginia.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot and humid conditions persist through Friday with a
  daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.

- 2) Drier conditions are expected to start the weekend.

- 3) Shower and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday into
  next week as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions persist through Friday
with a daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Shortwave ridging will pivot overhead later this morning into
the first part of the afternoon in the wake of an early morning
MCS over PA. This should allow for a fair amount of sunshine and
heating of a humid low-level airmass. After a start in the mid
60s to lower 70s, temperatures are expected to quickly rise this
morning, approaching the upper 80s to lower 90s by midday. Highs
this afternoon likely top out in the lower to middle 90s for the
lower elevations. A lingering surface trough near I-95 may keep
more of a westerly component to the wind for areas to the west,
with slightly less humid conditions likely resulting in heat
index values just shy of criteria (which is 100 west of Blue
Ridge, 105 east of Blue Ridge). Near and east of I-95, slightly
more humid air to the east of the trough and closer to the
Chesapeake Bay is expected to result in heat index values near
105, peaking mid afternoon. It will be hot regardless, so make
sure to stay hydrated and avoid strenuous activity during the
heat of the day.

With the heat and humidity comes some rather strong instability.
The subsidence may keep things from firing given weak/negligible
forcing into the afternoon hours. But another subtle shortwave
approaching from the west, combined with daytime heating,
terrain circulations, the lingering surface/lee trough, and
bay/river breezes, will probably touch off at least widely
scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. Timing is a bit
uncertain, but it seems to be at least a few hours later than
storms that formed Wednesday afternoon. Given the strong
instability and low-level lapse rates as well as mid-level dry
air, any storms that do develop will have the potential to
produce very gusty winds. Thinking that convection approaching
from the west may tend to struggle crossing the mountains with a
relative minimum in storm chances east of the Appalachians and
west of the Blue Ridge. As weak height falls encroach upon the
more theta-e ridge boundary layer near I-95, storms may become
more vigorous, possibly congealing into small clusters with a
damaging wind and sporadic large hail threat.

On the mesoscale, will have to monitor the evolution of an MCV
associated with severe early morning storms over IL/IN as it
moves east toward the region late this afternoon, and how that
interacts with the above mentioned lifting mechanisms (not to
mention any residual outflow from the early morning PA MCS). It
is plausible that these features enhance convective development
by resulting in slightly higher forcing and perhaps some subtly
enhanced mid-level flow. This would result in more widespread
storms and an uptick in damaging wind potential locally.

Thunderstorm activity should wind down late this evening, though
with the residual warm and humid airmass in place a pop up
shower or even a bit of thunder can`t be ruled out overnight.

Heat and humidity lingers Friday, and unless there is a lot of
morning cloud cover it looks to be a bit hotter. There is the
potential for a bit more mixing down of lower dew points given
lingering westerly flow, but heat index values likely approach
100 to 105 again in the afternoon.

Stronger forcing associated with an upper trough glancing by to
the northwest and an approaching cold front lends to higher
certainty of more numerous thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. Flow aloft will tick up slightly, though still modest.
But with abundant instability in place once again thunderstorms
may produce some rather gusty winds. Severe/damaging wind gusts
are plausible, especially with the added forcing that should
help force storms into bands. Isolated large hail is possible
with the most intense updrafts.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions are expected to start the weekend.

Following the Friday night cold frontal passage, high pressure
will briefly pivot over the Mid-Atlantic for Saturday. This
results in notably lower humidity and temperatures several
degrees cooler (relatively speaking) as well.

More sun than clouds amid light northwest breezes are expected.
Temperatures falling into the 60s Saturday night with dew points
around 60 will feel like a stark contrast to the more oppressive
humidity in the preceding couple of days/nights.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Shower and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday
into next week as a cold front moves through the region.

A deep upper-level trough will form over the Great Lakes towards the
end of the weekend, resulting in a cold front that will track
through the East Coast between late Sunday and going into Monday.
There are a couple of ML models that show a severe risk for this
front, bringing back severe chances after a brief pause on Saturday.

Once this cold front moves through, we could begin to see a brief
dip in temperatures, with highs for Monday currently ranging largely
in the 80s. Although the low pressure system associated with this
front will push north by late Monday, another area of low pressure
could build towards the south and push north on Tuesday, bringing
additional chances for rain and showers. By this point, severe
chances become much more uncertain as instability looks modest,
but shear will increase. Overall, expect a repeating pattern of
frontal boundaries tracking through the region bringing several
opportunities for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A decaying MCS over PA is not expected to directly affect the
TAF sites early this morning. However, the approaching cloud
shield likely keeps fog from getting too widespread, dense, or
persistent (with conditions lifting at MTN as of this writing).

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through Friday.
Thunderstorm coverage is uncertain this afternoon and evening,
but any storm could contain very gusty winds or even some hail.
Storms look to fire later today relative to yesterday. The 06Z
TAFs have a broad 6-hour window of highest potential from late
afternoon through mid evening. There is a higher chance of
strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening as a
cold front approaches. Winds will be fairly light out of the
west or southwest both days. Will continue to hone in on the
window of greatest TS risk in AMDs and future forecast cycles.

VFR conditions are predominantly expected through the weekend, with
some reduced conditions possible beginning Sunday evening associated
with potential showers and thunderstorms. Periodically reduced
conditions associated with a low pressure system could continue
through early next week. Gusts between 15-20 knots are possible
Sunday afternoon/evening before falling again Monday, with
southwest winds shifting easterly by Monday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light west to southwest winds are expected through
Friday, becoming northwest Friday night through Saturday. There
is a potential of at least brief near SCA conditions behind a
cold front Friday night into Saturday morning. Ahead of this
front, potential showers and thunderstorms bring a risk of
lightning and strong winds to the waters each afternoon/evening.

SCAs will likely be needed Sunday evening with gusts up to 20 knots
possible, but should go back below SCA thresholds by Monday morning.
Southwest winds shift northerly Monday afternoon before shifting
southeast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures are expected to soar to as much as 15 to 20 degrees
above average through Friday. This approaches or exceeds daily
record values at some sites.

Below is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures
for June 11th and 12th (Thursday and Friday).

=================================================================
            June 11th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows
=================================================================
Site            Record High                 Record Warm Low
DCA          101 F (set in 1911)      74 F (set in 2020 +6 others)
IAD           95 F (set in 2016)           72 F (set in 2005)
BWI           99 F (set in 1911)           75 F (set in 1914)
DMH          100 F (set in 1984)           79 F (set in 1984)
NAK           96 F (set in 2000)           79 F (set in 1973)
HGR           97 F (set in 1911)           73 F (set in 2005)
MRB          101 F (set in 1911)      71 F (set in 1927 and 1922)
CHO           99 F (set in 1911)           76 F (set in 2020)

=================================================================
            June 12th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows
=================================================================
Site            Record High                 Record Warm Low
DCA     95 F (set in 2017 +6 others)       77 F (set in 2015)
IAD           96 F (set in 1986)           72 F (set in 1986)
BWI     96 F (set in 1986 and 1914)        77 F (set in 1947)
DMH     96 F (set in 2025 +2 others)  77 F (set in 2017 and 2015)
NAK           98 F (set in 1914)      77 F (set in 2000 and 1973)
HGR     92 F (set in 2017 +5 others)  71 F (set in 2010 +5 others)
MRB     97 F (set in 1938 and 1933)        73 F (set in 1914)
CHO           98 F (set in 1914)      72 F (set in 1947 +2 others)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for DCZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-508.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ054-057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ530.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF