Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

385
FXUS61 KLWX 050737
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
337 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently tracking across western
MD and the eastern panhandle of WV. This shower activity will
diminish this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warm and dry conditions expected today, followed by
  beneficial rainfall tomorrow.

- 2) High pressure moves in at the end of the week, followed by
 weekend showers and fluctuating temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and dry conditions expected today, followed by
beneficial rainfall tomorrow.

High pressure shifts offshore today with warm, dry, and windy
conditions expected. High temperatures rise into the 80s for
most with higher elevations staying in 70s. Cloud cover
increases from northwest to southeast this afternoon as a cold
front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. Rainfall associated
with the frontal passage is expected to be widespread and
beneficial. A few thunderstorm are possible, although rainfall
will primarily stratiform. Rain moves out of the area Wednesday
night and into Thursday morning with cooler temperatures
expected for the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure moves in at the end of the week,
followed by weekend showers and fluctuating temperatures.

Surface high pressure moves into the region by Thursday night after
Wednesday`s frontal boundary transitions offshore, maintaining
temperatures in the 50s and 60s until the end of the week.
Temperatures start to increase again going into the weekend, with
highs in the 70s on Saturday and Sunday. A few rain showers
associated with a shortwave upper level trough are possible on
Saturday.

Looking ahead, another Great Lakes frontal boundary looks to be
making its way towards the East Coast by early next week, bringing
additional chances for rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Guidance indicates a chance of LLWS across the metro terminals
this morning as winds gust 35-40 knots aloft. Included in the
IAD TAF until 9Z, otherwise expected winds at the surface to be
strong enough to leave out of the other TAFs. Southwest winds
gust 20 to 30 knots beginning this morning through tonight. As a
cold front pushes across the terminals on Wednesday, winds shift
to northwesterly and diminish. Additionally, widespread rain
showers and thunderstorms bring reduced ceilings and
visibilities to all terminals.

Northerly winds on Thursday shift southwest by Friday evening, with
gusts up to 10-15 knots. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are still
possible on Thursday as a strong cold front transitions offshore.
VFR conditions on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
on Saturday with sub-VFR conditions expected during heaviest
rain showers in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remains in effect for all waters
beginning at 10AM through Wednesday afternoon as southerly
winds gusts up to 30 knots. A cold front crosses the waters
Wednesday with winds shifting to northwesterly and diminishing
behind the frontal passage. Winds remain below SCA criteria on
Thursday, although winds in the southern portions of the waters
near criteria. Light and variable winds are expected beginning
Friday morning.

South winds Saturday morning gust near SCA criteria but are
expected to last only a few areas. Winds diminish to below SCA
criteria Saturday evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm, dry, and windy conditions today lead to elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Gusty winds 30
to 35 mph, low humidities in the mid 20s, and fuel moisture
between 8-10% are expected today with the greatest risk for dangerous
fire wx behavior is west of the Blue Ridge Mountains where
recent cool temperatures and freezes have slowed down green-up.
Greener vegetation east of the Blue Ridge Mountains should
preclude any fires from exhibiting extreme fire behavior, but
gusty winds of 30-35 mph may still cause fire containment
difficult even though fuels are not as dry as they were two
weeks ago.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ535-536-538-542.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/SRT
MARINE...AVS/SRT