Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

197
FXUS61 KLWX 081835 AAB
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
235 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SPC introduced Marginal Risk for tomorrow across NE MD. Lowered
min T`s Mon night into Tue AM west of Blue Ridge in
anticipation of late spring frost/freeze.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Milder for the weekend with chances for showers and
  thunderstorms.

- 2) Frost/freeze expected Monday night west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Milder for the weekend with chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

A warm front will move nrwd through the FA Sat as high pressure
moves offshore. This will bring milder temps Sat aft with
widespread 70s (60s mtns). There are two main periods of concern
for rain Sat. First is morning hours near Mason-Dixon with warm
front. Clouds then progged to break, though guidance varies wrt
coverage of second round of convection through the aft-eve. SPC
has MRGL Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for tomorrow across NE MD.
Shear will be sufficient for organized storm structures, but Td
recovery will be modest (50s) with instability likely limited to
several hundred J/kg. Thus the svr wx risk appears low, but
will have to monitor the potential for small hail and gusty
winds.

Much of Sat night and Sun morn should be dry. After that, a
cold front will slowly settle in from the NW, eventually
crossing the area Mon. A wave of low pressure will eventually
form along the boundary as stronger troughing digs SE from the
GL. This could ultimately bring a steadier rain to parts of the
FA, but these details remain uncertain. The highest chances for
rain will be Sun night into Mon morn. While a few t-storms
could be in the mix, overall instability looks minimal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost/freeze expected Monday night west of the
Blue Ridge.

High pressure will quickly build in from the west
Mon night. This will result in light winds and favorable
radiational cooling conditions. Frost or near freezing
temps could result in the sheltered valleys near and west of
I-81. This could be rather impactful given approaching mid- May
at this point which is a couple weeks to a month past the median
last freeze for these areas.

The high pressure will drift offshore Tue marking return flow
and moderating temps. The warming trend will be more noticeable
heading into Wed as a warm front lifts into the region,
followed by a cold front by Thu. This frontal system will bring
a chance of showers and a few t-storms mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue with some high based cumulus this
afternoon, and mid level ceilings tonight. Winds will become
more w`ly through aft and may gust to around 20-25 kt.

Winds turn s`ly this evening and persist through Sat, when some
additional 20 kt gusts are possible. Some light showers are
possible Sat morn across nrn waters, with iso to scat SHRA and
t-storms possible in the aft.

VFR conditions can be expected for much of Sun. However, a cold
front will drop into the area late in the day. Widespread rain
and a few t-storms can be expected as this front traverses the
region, especially Sun night into Mon morn. Expect VSBY
reductions and reduced CIGs during this time.

Any lingering rain chances should pull offshore by midday Mon
resulting in VFR conditions and N to NW winds. Gusts may reach
20 to 25 knots in the wake of the front Mon before becoming
lighter Mon night into Tue and shifting to the S.

&&

.MARINE...
Through this aft, winds will generally be out of the W/SW.
Gusts are forecast to reach low-end SCA levels across the
narrower waters of the Upper Bay and Upper Tidal Potomac. Winds
become S`ly quickly this eve. Another SCA has been issued S of
Sandy Point as S`ly channeling is expected to increase through
the night. All waters may need an adv Sat as S`ly flow
continues. Iso to scat t-storms may affect the waters Sat aft
and early eve, which may prompt SMWs.

Lighter winds are expected Sat night into Sun. SHRA and perhaps
a few t-storms along a cldfrnt will likely cross the waters
mainly Sun night into Mon morning. The associated cldfrnt will
cross the waters early Mon with a shift to NW`lies with gusts
up to 20 to 25 knots. SCAs will likely be needed late Sun night
through part of Mon night. Building high pressure will result
in lighter winds by Tue before shifting to the S.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
S`ly flow will persist through Sat night. Flow will
occasionally be enhanced by s`ly channeling, but may also
exhibit a bit w - of - s component at times. This makes the
tide somewhat uncertain, as a more S to slightly E - of- S
component at slightly higher speeds would result in higher water
levels approaching 1.5 feet above normal and a resulting higher
potential for minor flooding at places like Annapolis and Havre
de Grace heading into Sat. Wind direction may be a bit more
variable Sun into Sun eve introducing further uncertainty to the
tide forecast, though lingering elevated water levels certainly
seem plausible until a cold front crosses Sun night into Mon.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/CPB
MARINE...ADS/CPB