Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

063
FXUS61 KLWX 161837
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
237 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Heat, humidity, and an approaching cold front bring the
 next chance for severe weather on Thursday.

- 2) A warm front lifting through the region brings showers and
 thunderstorms overnight tonight.

- 3) Thunderstorm potential will return late Sunday into
 Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat, humidity, and an approaching cold front
bring the next chance for severe weather on Thursday.

A very strong low pressure system is forecast to track northeast
from the Great Lakes on Thursday with the associated cold front
pushing across the forecast area through the day. Ahead of the
cold front, southerly flow ushers in warm air with high
temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s. Gusty winds should keep heat
indices near the high temperature, although hot and humid
conditions are expected.

The combination of the warm and humid air surge ahead of the
cold front and increasing winds will result in the possibility
of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday
evening. As of now, the Storms Prediction Center has our entire
forecast region in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for
Thursday and Thursday night. The main threat with these
possible severe thunderstorms will be damaging winds given the
wind field. Most recent guidance is indicating that the best
forcing will be north of the forecast area, therefore leading to
lower confidence in the severe threat. If storms develop, there
is a high ceiling for impacts although westerly downsloping flow
over the forecast are combined with lack of forcing may inhibit
convection from developing. We will continue to monitor as
Thursday gets closer.

In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will be about 10 to
15 degrees cooler compared to the day before. Precipitation
lingers into Friday morning, although surface high pressure
building overhead yields dry conditions and decreasing cloud
cover through the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A warm front lifting through the region brings showers and
thunderstorms overnight tonight.

High pressure will keep cool and dry conditions in the region
this morning. High temperatures this afternoon rise into the
upper 70s to low 80s for most with highest elevations in the
Alleghenies staying in the 60s. A warm front lifting through the
region combined with shortwave energy aloft, bring an increased
risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms in southern
MD. To accommodate this risk, SPC has much of the Chesapeake
Bay and portions of Southern MD in a marginal risk for severe
weather overnight. Any convection will be elevated in nature,
but adequate shear and lift may lead to gusty winds and hail
within stronger storms.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Thunderstorm potential will return late Sunday into
Monday.

Cyclonic flow remains over the area Saturday as high pressure builds
in from the west. A subtle reinforcing front may slide through the
area as well, but dry weather is likely. Temperatures will be
seasonable, but the noticeable change will be the drier, less humid
airmass along with breezy northwest winds.

Model spread increases considerably for Sunday into early next week
as the next shortwave trough emanates from a closed low over central
Canada. This will lead to low pressure developing between the Ohio
Valley and east coast, potentially strengthening off the coast early
next week. Based on the current spread in timing, precipitation
chances could increase as early as Sunday, but there is more model
agreement for Monday. While thunderstorms are possible, instability
may be limited, especially depending on the northerly advance of the
warm sector. Overall it will be less hot and humid compared to some
of the recent events, so any threat for strong to severe storms will
be more conditional. The largest spread in temperatures is Monday,
dependent on the position of the fronts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is a
non-negligable chance for rain showers for terminals along and
east of the Blue Ridge tonight as a warm front lifts through,
although confidence remained too low to include in the TAF.
Generally, no significant reductions in ceilings or visiblities
are expected. Winds northwest through this afternoon, blowing 5
to 10 knots. Winds shift to southwesterly this afternoon then
south/southeasterly tonight. Winds shift back to southwesterly
on Wednesday.

Primarily VFR conditions are expected on Thursday. Background
winds will be out of the southwest on Thursday, and could gust
in excess of 30 knots at times. Temporary drops to sub-VFR
conditions and even stronger winds may be possible in
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.

VFR conditions are likely Saturday but northwesterly winds may gust
to around 25 kt. The next frontal system may approach Sunday but is
more likely to bring showers and thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front lifts north across the waters this evening and into
the overnight with showers and thunderstorms possible over the
waters. Early Wednesday morning, mainly between 2-6AM, SMWS are
possible as strong thunderstorms track in the southern portions
of the waters, south of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge.

Winds shift to southwest Wednesday which may support Small
Craft Advisories for portions of the waters. SCAs appear likely
on Thursday in southwesterly flow. Gale force winds are possible
Thursday afternoon over the northern Tidal Potomac and northern
portions of the Chesapeake Bay. SMWs will also likely be needed
as thunderstorms move over the waters on Thursday as strong to
severe thunderstorms potentially track over the waters. Small
Craft Advisories are possible Saturday in northwesterly flow.
Winds may be lighter Sunday as high pressure passes to the
south.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides will ramp up tonight into Wednesday, which could bring
tides at Annapolis into Minor tidal flooding again.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/AVS
MARINE...ADS/AVS