Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

866
FXUS61 KLWX 291515
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1015 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will pass through the area today. An upper-
level trough will remain overhead through Tuesday before a
reinforcing cold front passes through the area late Wednesday
into Thursday. High pressure will briefly return for Friday
before low pressure passes nearby or to our south during the
Saturday. High pressure will return for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A powerful cold front now essentially bisects the forecast area.
East of the boundary, temperatures are in the mid 50s with
generally light southerly winds. West of the boundary, winds are
quickly picking up out of the west as expected, along with a
drop in temperatures into the 40s (low 30s in the mountains).
Thus far, the forecast is panning out about as expected, though
perhaps the winds are not picking up quite as quickly as
anticipated.

As the cold front sweeps through today, a sudden wind shift to
the west and northwest is expected along with strong winds and
rapidly falling temperatures. A few showers will likely
accompany the frontal passage as well. A strong gradient and
pressure rises combined with strong cold and dry air advection
will allow for strong winds aloft to mix down to the surface. A
High Wind Warning is in effect for the Allegheny Highlands
through tonight and a Wind Advisory is in effect for most other
locations (exception across portions of the VA Piedmont) through
this evening. Wind gusts around 60 to 65 mph are expected
across the Allegheny Highlands and Blue Ridge Mountains with 45
to 55 mph most likely across most other locations. The strongest
winds are expected this afternoon into this evening. There is
some concern for 60 mph wind gusts to spill further east into
the I-81 corridor and metro areas, and this can be seen in the
latest NBM probs showing a chance for peak gusts around 50
knots. Confidence is not high enough for a High Wind Warning at
this time since bufkit soundings show the 50 knots at the top of
the mixing layer with a little directional shear.

Winds may diminish some later tonight due to the loss of
mixing, but blustery and very cold conditions are expected.
Wind chills late tonight will dip into the single digits and
teens for most locations with below zero along the ridges.

Upslope snow showers are likely behind the cold front for
locations along/west of the Allegheny Front this afternoon
through tonight. The steadiest snow is expected to be this
evening where soundings show decent alignment with low-level
moisture, a little instability, and the DGZ. A Winter Weather
Advisory is currently in effect for these areas. The forecast
is currently for around 2 to 5 inches of snow overall, but could
see some isolate spots get up to around the 90th percentile,
which is around 6 inches. Given the very cold temperatures and
strong winds, near blizzard conditions are expected
intermittently today. Considered a Blizzard warning, but
thinking is that blizzard conditions (1/4 mile with 35+ mph for
3 consecutive hours or more) will be more localized throughout
time vs widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will slowly pass through eastern Canada Tuesday
while the upper-level trough remains overhead. A strong gradient
between that low and high pressure over the central CONUS will
result in more blustery west to northwest winds. A High Wind
Warning remains in effect for the Allegheny Highlands and Blue
Ridge Mountains. A Wind Advisory may be needed for locations
near/north of I-70 into the eastern Panhandle of WV and extreme
northern VA, but confidence is too low to extend headlines as
of now. The strongest winds will be through midday before
gradually diminishing throughout the afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Highs will range from the teens in the mountains to the
20s and 30s for most other locations, but the brisk winds will
keep wind chills in the teens and 20s for most areas with below
zero to single digits in the mountains.

An upper-level disturbance associated with the northern stream
of the jet will pass through the area Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. This system will lack moisture, but a period
of light snow cannot be ruled out along with the passage of this
system. As of now, the probability is low enough not to be
reflected in the forecast, but it is nonzero. The most likely
scenario is for any light snow to be along/west of the Allegany
Front, but this will continue to be monitored to see if trends
increase for a little light snow east of the mountains.

Dry and chilly conditions are expected behind the disturbance
for later Wednesday into Wednesday night. However, another
upper-level disturbance and its associated cold front will
approach the area late Wednesday night. This system may be a
little stronger. A period of light snow is possible east of the
mountains, and if this comes to fruition it could cause an
impact late New Years Eve into New Years Day. For locations
along/west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope component to the
low-level flow along with saturation, alignment with the DGZ,
and forcing from the boundary/disturbance suggests that there is
a likelihood for accumulating snow. With high snow-liquid
ratios, later shifts may consider issuing a Winter Storm Watch
for these areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper-level disturbance and its reinforcing cold front will
move off to the east Thursday morning. A little light snow
cannot be ruled out east of the mountains, and accumulating
snow is likely along/west of the Allegheny Front.

High pressure will build overhead for later Thursday through
Friday, bringing dry and cold conditions.

Low pressure will pass nearby or to our south Saturday. If the
system tracks far enough to the north, a period of rain or
wintry mix/snow is possible, but confidence is low at this
time.

High pressure will most likely return to end the weekend with
dry and chilly conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong cold front will pass through the terminals between
through 17Z-18Z from from west to east. A few showers have been
seen with the front itself, but should only briefly impact BWI
and MTN at this point, and likely with very little in terms of
restrictions.

A sudden wind shift to the west and northwest is expected
behind the frontal passage and strong winds are expected as
well. Wind gusts around 40 to 45 knots are most likely, and a
few gusts could even approach 50 knots. The strongest winds are
expected this afternoon into this evening.

Winds will diminish a little, but still remain gusty tonight
through most of Tuesday before further diminishing late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night.

Generally VFR conditions are expected Tuesday night through
Friday. Will watch a couple disturbance. The first one will pass
through late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A few flurries
or light snow cannot be ruled out, but confidence is very low at
this time. A stronger disturbance may bring a little light snow
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Will continue to monitor
both of these systems.

&&

.MARINE...
A south to southwest flow will continue ahead of a strong cold
front through late this morning. Winds have actually diminished
a good bit in the early to mid-morning hours, with many spots
even below SCA criteria.

The strong cold front will pass through the waters between 17Z
and 19Z, and a sudden wind shift to the west and northwest is
expected along with strong winds. A few showers are accompanying
this frontal passage, but will bring little impact. A Gale
Warning is in effect for the waters today through this evening.
Gusts around 40 to 45 knots are most likely, especially this
afternoon into this evening. Given the sudden drop in winds this
morning, followed by the rapid shift/onset of Gale conditions,
and SMW will likely be issued when Gale-force winds are expected
to begin, especially given the magnitude of winds expected
today.

Winds will subside a little late tonight into Tuesday, but
remain gusty. A Gale Warning is in effect for the upper Tidal
Potomac River late tonight as well as the upper and middle
portions of the Bay. The Gale Warning may need to be extended
further south, but confidence is too low at this time. Either
way, it will be windy with gusts around 35 knots in the northern
portions of the waters and gusts around 30 knots in the southern
portions of the waters through most of Tuesday.

Winds will gradually diminish Tuesday night, but an SCA will
likely be needed during this time and continuing through most of
Wednesday. A weaker gradient may bring lighter winds late in the
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels will be elevated through early this afternoon in a
southerly flow. Had to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for
Annapolis for the upcoming high tide at 12:40 PM this
afternoon. There is a chance that strong westerlies get in there
just early enough to tank anomalies before hitting minor, but at
this point it was too close and ultimately decided to issue.
Either way, it will briefly touch minor, and then drop
substantially from this afternoon onward.

A strong and persistent offshore flow is expected later this
afternoon through Tuesday night. Tidal blowout conditions are
possible tonight through Tuesday night. A Low Water Advisory
may be needed.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for DCZ001.
MD...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ008.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ003>006-008-011-
     013-014-016>018-503>508.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
     MDZ014.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ501-502-509-
     510.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ025>031-036>040-
     053-054-501-505-506-526-527.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for VAZ503-504-507-
     508.
WV...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ050>053-055.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ501>506.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ530>532-538>540.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ533-534-536-537-
     541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ535.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/CJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/CJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/CJL
MARINE...BJL/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...