Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

320
FXUS61 KLWX 081956
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A thin layer of mountain wave cirrus has developed in the lee of
the Appalachians, and will swiftly move east while dissipating
by evening. Large model spread remains regarding the potential
system late in the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Breezy Monday, otherwise seasonable through Wednesday.

- 2) Much cooler conditions Thursday through Saturday, along
     with chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy Monday, otherwise seasonable through
Wednesday.

High pressure to the south with multiple weak fronts passing
overhead will lead to a seasonably mild first half of the week.

A surface trough near I-95 as of mid afternoon will drift east
and develop into a weak cold front as it pulls offshore this
evening. This will result in some slight enhancement to the
winds, mainly over the mountains and wider waterways. Elevations
above 3500 feet along and west of the Allegheny Front will be
poking into the base of an enhanced mid-level jet, with 40-55
mph wind gusts expected. A Wind Advisory is in effect tonight
into Monday morning for western Grant/Pendleton/Highland
Counties, and may need to be expanded (1) eastward into the
lower elevations of eastern sections of these counties depending
on efficiency of downsloping behind a second (dry) front early
Monday, and/or (2) further north into western Mineral/Allegany
and Garrett Counties.

The second (mainly dry) "cold" front will swing across the
remainder of the region early Monday morning before moving
offshore, with the mid-level jet streak pivoting overhead during
the day. There is not much of a temperature/moisture discontinuity
with this boundary, though it will bring enhanced winds, some
clouds, and perhaps a few sprinkles to northern and western
areas. Winds are expected to subside by mid to late morning over
the Alleghenies, but will increase east of there. Although a
few spotty gusts of around 45 mph are possible over and just
east of higher terrain north of US-50/US-33, most gusts are
expected to be in the 25-40 mph range (20-30 mph for the central
Virginia piedmont).

Although the current forecast package calls for mainly sunny
conditions on Monday, a thin moisture layer trapped beneath a
subsidence inversion near the base of the mid-level jet may
result in thin but widespread stratocumulus clouds. The chance
for this increases as one heads further north and west. At least
part of the day may end up mostly cloudy as a result, but will
revisit in subsequent cycles before making any changes.

High pressure attempts to nose back into the region Monday
evening before a weak warm front lifts through overnight. The
setup could be favorable for some mountain wave cirrus or
perhaps a bit of WAA mid-level cloud cover given a weak warm
front approaching late at night, as well as favorable flow with
some near-saturation in the upper levels. If skies end up clear
and winds go light to calm Monday night, then some patchy frost
may develop outside the major cities/away from large bodies of
water. Confidence in this is low, however.

Generally milder conditions with less wind are expected Tuesday
and Wednesday. High temperatures each afternoon are expected to
reach well into the 60s to perhaps lower 70s (with 50s at higher
elevations). Very light winds and mainly clear skies Tuesday
night could again result in some frost. Of note, the growing
season for 2026 only remains active east of US-15 as of this
morning, so no further frost/freeze headlines will be issued
west of there until spring of 2027.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler conditions Thursday through
Saturday, along with chances for precipitation.

Model guidance is in very good agreement that a very deep trough
will dig southward across the Eastern half of the CONUS late in
the week. While there`s good agreement that a longwave pattern
with troughing in the East and ridging in the West will set up,
there are still considerable differences with respect to the
finer forecast details during that time, with several individual
lobes of vorticity interacting and then combining to ultimately
dig out the deeper longwave trough.

In terms of sensible weather, clouds will be on the increase on
Thursday as the upper trough digs to our west. Despite the increase
in cloud cover, temperatures are still forecast to be seasonable,
with highs generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s. An area of low
pressure is expected to form downstream of the digging trough, but
there`s still some spread with respect to where exactly it will form
and how it will track. Some solutions (such as the 12z Euro) have
the low tracking directly overhead on Thursday and then offshore
Thursday night into Friday, while others (such as the 12z GFS) have
the low forming to our south over the Carolinas and then tracking
northeastward toward just east of the Delmarva. In most of these
scenarios, precipitation would likely break out in the form of
rain across much of the forecast area on Thursday.

In any of the above scenarios colder air will start to filter into
the area from the north Thursday night into Friday. Depending on the
ultimate track and strength of the low, some locations may
transition over from rain to snow Thursday night into Friday. As is
often the case, chances for snow will be greater as one goes higher
up in elevation and further to the northwest.

If the absolute coldest solutions were to verify, many locations
could see their first flakes of the season, although accumulations
would still be unlikely at lower elevations with marginal
temperatures in place. A more likely scenario is for precipitation
to stay all rain at lower elevations with snow mixing in at the
higher elevations. The Alleghenies will have the greatest chance for
accumulating snow, but even there there`s still considerable spread,
due to the uncertainty in the finer scale details within the trough
and the ultimate track/strength of the low.

Most guidance suggests that precipitation should begin to wind down
by late Friday night, but a few solutions keep lingering light
precipitation through much of the day Saturday. Either way,
temperatures look to remain cool, with highs in the 40s to near
50.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through
mid week. A layer of low-end VFR stratocu could develop Monday,
with mountain wave mid/upper clouds Monday night. Late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning may have the potential for some
patchy fog. Otherwise, it will be dry. Confidence in any
restrictions is low through Tuesday night.

The most impactful element will likely be the winds over the
next couple of days. Monday looks particularly gusty in the wake
of a pair of dry fronts. Some LLWS could develop overnight as
winds aloft increase but the boundary layer decouples. Marginal
LLWS can`t be ruled out again in association with a weak warm
front early Tuesday. After a brief period of S/SW surface winds
into early this evening, W/NW flow is expected overnight through
Monday evening. Gusts of 25-35 kts are likely Monday. Winds then
shift back to the S/SW late Monday night into Tuesday, before
flipping back to the W/NW Tuesday night. Confidence is high in
the wind forecast through the period, and low/medium in LLWS.

Winds will turn easterly on Thursday and then eventually northerly
Thursday night. VFR conditions are expected through much of the
day Thursday along with chances for rain. Sub-VFR conditions
appear possible by Thursday night as ceilings start to lower.
Sub-VFR conditions could linger through most of Friday as a
complex somewhat uncertain low pressure system meanders in the
area or just to the east. Rain and possibly snow flakes could
aid in sub-VFR conditions. Wind would likely become more
northwesterly as the low pressure moves to the east.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts this afternoon have generally fallen to around or
below 15 knots. This lull will ultimately be short-lived,
however, as a surface trough develops into a weak cold front and
slides offshore this evening. This will result in an increase in
gusts over most waterways, generally around 15-25 knots. A
second dry front will cross early Monday, with a period of gusts
around 25-30 knots expected. Some gusts to near gale-force can`t
be ruled out. Wind direction will generally be west to southwest
this evening, then west to northwest overnight through Monday
evening. Winds will gradually subside Monday night, and remain
light through Tuesday night varying between southwest and
northwest through the period.

Wind will become easterly on Thursday and then northerly
Thursday night. Small Craft Advisory level winds appear possible
in northerly flow Thursday night. Winds will become more
northwesterly and perhaps gusty Friday as low pressure moves to
the east and southeast. Small craft advisories will be possible
once again, if not Gales in the open Chesapeake waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong northwest winds on Monday could result in near Low Water
Advisory/blowout tide levels, particularly over the upper parts
of the Chesapeake Bay north of Annapolis and Baltimore.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for
     VAZ503.
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for
     WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST
     Monday night for ANZ530>534-537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF
MARINE...KLW/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF