Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

931
FXUS61 KLWX 191426
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1026 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories have expired. Higher dew
points and winds tonight will likely preclude frost concerns
where the growing season is still active.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Confidence is increasing that impacts from a nearby
  Nor`easter will be limited this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Confidence is increasing that impacts from a
nearby Nor`easter will be limited this week.

Overall not too much change in the weather pattern this week. With
an "Omega Block" taking form, upper-level atmospheric features
generally remain stuck in place. Current model guidance
continues to depict ridging over the central US and a strong
high building over the Great Lakes through the middle of this
week. Although some uncertainty remains in the exact track of
the Nor`easter, this pattern tends to keep the developing low
far enough off the Mid- Atlantic coast to nearly eliminate
shower potential across our region through next week. Overall,
any impacts will be tied to coastal communities along the
Chesapeake Bay where potential minor coastal flooding and gusty
marine winds remain possible concerns this week. As for these
marine and coastal flooding concerns see the corresponding
discussions below.

Late in the week, this Nor`easter is expected to pull away from the
coast giving way to another strong high pressure system over our
area. Heading into next weekend, dry and seasonable conditions are
expected to persist.

Temperatures this week remain steady with highs in the mid to
upper 50s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.


&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through the week as surface high
pressure builds overhead and dry conditions persist. Winds
remain primarily out of the north each day with terminals
gusting around 15-20 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
The Nor`easter off the Mid-Atlantic coast will deliver a
prolonged period of high end SCA conditions and marginal gales
(mainly over the middle Chesapeake). The Gale Warning continues for
tonight into Tuesday morning from Drum Point to Smith Point and
Tangier Sound. Additionally, Small Craft Advisories are in place
through Tuesday morning for most of the waters excluding the
upper Potomac. While the threat for gale force winds diminishes
after Tuesday, Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for
portions of the waters through the end of the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies rise through midweek as a Nor`easter lingers
offshore. Tidal locations including Dahlgren, Annapolis,
Solomons Island, and Alexandria are forecast to reach minor
flood stage by Tuesday or Wednesday high tide cycles. However,
some uncertainty remains on how exactly this Nor`easter will
track and subsequently affect the tide levels. Elevated water
levels likely won`t decline until late in the week due to the
stagnant weather pattern.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     535-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ530-538.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>533-
     537-539>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ534-
     543.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ534-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KVH
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KVH
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KVH