Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

502
FXUS61 KLWX 262038
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
338 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A key message was added for a potential winter weather system
this weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dangerously cold wind chill temperatures through this
  weekend.

- 2) Periods of mountain snow through mid-week.

- 3) The next round of winter weather is possible this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerously cold wind chill temperatures
through this weekend.

Persistent East Coast troughing will remain in place through the
rest of the week, while a closed upper low circulates to our
north over southern Canada. As disturbances rotate through on
the southern periphery of that upper low, multiple shots of
reinforcing Arctic air will advect into the region. As a result,
very cold air will reside over the region through the end of
the week. Temperatures aren`t forecast to reach freezing over
the course of the week, with high temperatures most days in the
teens and 20s. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in
the single digits above/below zero across the entire forecast
area each night. Some double digit below zero temperatures may
even be possible if locations are able to decouple and go calm.

Winds each day and night will only make it feel even colder.
Winds chills are forecast to dip below zero each night, and may
even reach double digits below zero across the majority of the
forecast area Thursday night and Friday night. Winds chills
will only recover to the single digits above zero and teens
during the daylight hours. As mentioned before, each day looks
very cold, but the absolute coldest days currently look to be
Thursday and Friday.

Cold Weather Advisories or Extreme Cold Warnings are in effect
for the entire forecast area tonight, and additional cold
weather headlines will likely be needed each day this week.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Periods of mountain snow through mid-week.

With persistent troughing in place and multiple disturbances
tracking off to our north, upslope snow in the Alleghenies will
be possible on the backside of each disturbance. Snow showers
have continued on and off through the day today in the
Alleghenies, where Winter Weather Advisories are in effect
through 6 PM. An additional coating to an inch of snow will be
possible there through this evening.

Another disturbance will track to our north across the
Great Lakes tomorrow, leading to another period of upslope snow
showers tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Soundings show
very cold profiles with most of the lift through the DGZ. Not
much QPF is expected, but snow ratios will be high (potentially
greater than 20:1), with a general 1-3 inches of snow expected
in the Alleghenies during that time.

Yet another disturbance will pass through Wednesday into
Wednesday night, with upslope snow expected again within
northwesterly flow Wednesday night. At this juncture, there`s a
bit more spread with respect to how much snow will fall with
this system. Some solutions show very little in the way of
snowfall, while others show another couple of inches of snow in
the Alleghenies.


KEY MESSAGE 3...The next round of winter weather is possible this
weekend.

A large scale, northern stream trough will dig south from the upper
Great Lakes toward the central Appalachians this weekend. At the
same time, a southern stream ejects from the Four Corners toward the
Gulf states. As these systems phase along the Eastern Seaboard,
there is good agreement that an area of low pressure develops along
or near the coast. The location of the phasing will determine how
close to the coast the low is. The long range models are painting a
typical Miller A type Nor`easter that could bring wintry
precipitation along some of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Cold air won`t
be an issue with an Arctic airmass leading up to the weekend (highs
in the teens to low 20s Fri/Sat) and a reinforcing high building
over southern Quebec/Ontario on Sunday.

It is important to note that model uncertainty for any given
solution is very high at 5-6 days out, but the ensemble guidance
does hint at the possibility of some snow in the area this weekend.
The 12Z European, GFS, and Canadian all have around a 20-30pct
chance for 3" of snow east of the Blue Ridge. The NBM speak best to
the wide range of possibilities for this system, with the 13Z run
having a 20-30pct chance for 6" of snow, around 20pct chance for
12", around 15pct chance for 18", and around 5pct chance for 24".
Expect model guidance to bounce around significantly over the next
few days before settling on a solution by the end of this week. By
Wednesday the regional models will have some output that goes into
the weekend. For now, take note of this potential threat and
continue to monitor for updates as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Wednesday.
Winds will be out of the northwest this afternoon, and may gust
to around 30 knots at times. Winds gradually subside through the
overnight, and then turn out of the southwest tomorrow. Light
westerly winds are expected on Wednesday.

Brisk conditions will persist all week with wind the main impact to
terminals. Otherwise, no other hazard is expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty northwest winds will continue over the waters through the
overnight hours tonight. Gales are in effect for the wider
waters of the Bay, with SCAs in effect elsewhere. Lighter
southwesterly winds are expected tomorrow. Winds could briefly
approach low-end SCA levels across the wider waters tomorrow
afternoon. Sub-SCA level westerly winds are expected on
Wednesday.

Winds increase to SCA criteria on Thu. Additional advisories
are likely on Thu.

&&


.CLIMATE...
Here are some daily temperature records during the January 25-27,
2026 timeframe:

A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.

                 ***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        17F (1961)             5F (1948)+
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          21F (1966)             3F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  17F (1961)             2F (1961)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     19F (1961)            13F (1982)!
Martinsburg (MRB)                12F (1961)           -10F (1948)
Charlottesville (CHO)            13F (1961)             9F (1922)!
Annapolis (NAK)                  18F (1961)             5F (1905)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 15F (1961)           -12F (1948)

                 ***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        22F (1961)             6F (1935)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          22F (2003)            -9F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  21F (1918)!            3F (1987)!
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     22F (1961)!           13F (1982)!
Martinsburg (MRB)                17F (1971)            -6F (1987)

Charlottesville (CHO)            18F (1961)             0F (1982)
Annapolis (NAK)                  22F (1961)             5F (1927)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 17F (1907)!          -10F (1987)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Tuesday for DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ008.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for MDZ008.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Tuesday for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Tuesday for MDZ501-509-510.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ509-
     510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Tuesday for VAZ027>031-038>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-
     505-506-526-527.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Tuesday for VAZ025-026-036-037-503-504-507-508.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ050>053-055-502-504.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ501-503-505-506.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ501.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ530>543.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ530.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ531-532-
     538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ531-532-538>540.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ533-
     534-537-541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJP/KRR
AVIATION...KJP/KRR
MARINE...KJP/KRR