Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

005
FXUS61 KLWX 211300
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
900 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Freeze Warnings have been dropped as temperatures quickly
rise this morning. Have lowered dew points/humidity a tick or
two this afternoon given abundant dry air aloft.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming temperatures mid to late week with additional rain
chances possible this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming temperatures mid to late week with
additional rain chances possible this weekend.

As Canadian high pressure slides off toward the south, a quick
moving cold front will cross the region by mid-week (late Tuesday
night into Wednesday). There will not be a whole lot of moisture to
work with, so any rainfall amounts are likely to be meager in nature
(less than a 0.10"). Some instability in the atmosphere could
produce a few thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon
hours. A lack of stronger forcing, shear, or instability should lead
to generally weak convection, though some spotty downpours, gusty
winds, and small hail can`t be ruled out.

After a chilly start to the work week, ensembles agree on a
warm up through the middle to latter portions of the week. High
temperatures could push back into the low/mid 80s by Friday
ahead of another system likely to bring a return of rain by the
second half of Friday. A threat of showers continues through
much of the weekend before the frontal system exits east of the
region by late in the weekend. On Sunday, the latest forecast
package calls for highs returning to the 60s. This eventually
all lends itself to a cooler finish to the month of April.
However, there is uncertainty in the evolution of low pressure
approaching the area by then, and just how the temperature and
precipitation forecast pans out. The good news is that rain chances
are back in the forecast given the expanding drought and elevated
fire weather concerns across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through Friday. Some temporary sub-VFR
conditions are possible with a weak cold front Wednesday. The
front could bring brief -SHRA/-TSRA at the terminals Wednesday
morning into Wednesday afternoon. Locations down around KCHO may
see nothing at all. Winds shift to the south today at less than
15 kts with southwest winds ahead of the front Wednesday
switching back to the northwest Wednesday afternoon. Gusts
Wednesday will remain between 10 to 20 kts. Some LLWS also
possible west of the corridor tonight as southerly flow
increases ahead of the boundary.

Additional WAA showers are possible by Friday afternoon which
could be accompanied by a few restrictions. Initial winds will
be out of the NW on Thursday before becoming mainly westerly on
Friday. A shift to southeasterly is possible by Friday night.
More shower chances with temporary sub-VFR reductions are
possible this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure builds overhead today. Winds become more southerly
through the day today with additional SCAs possible into
Wednesday due to southerly channeling. Sub- SCA level winds are
expected late Wednesday with winds out of the SW to NW as a
cold front crosses. This front may bring a few showers and
thunderstorms mainly Wednesday afternoon.

Expect sub-advisory level winds for both Thursday and Friday.
Weak gradients will favor multiple wind shifts before turning
mainly S/SE by Friday night.

SCA conditions return for portions of the waters this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH of 15 to 30 percent is forecast for most of the area this
afternoon, with potential for moisture return to be delayed
until tonight despite a light return flow. Winds will be rather
light for most of the area, but a few hour period of gusts 15 to
25 mph are possible over the Alleghenies, Blue Ridge Mountains,
and the central Shenandoah Valley. Areas south of I-66/US-50
have seen very little in the way of rain. Fuel moistures remain
dry as a result with very high ERCs under sunny skies, though
the relatively light winds and earlier than normal green up may
quell a more significant fire weather threat.

A moderating trend in temperatures expected during the middle
and second half of the week. Winds will be on lighter side. The
next potential for rainfall is Wednesday into Thursday (mainly
north of I-66/US-50), but amounts look light.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southerly flow is expected today and tonight. This will result
in rising tidal anomalies. The higher members of P-ETSS and
SFAS, as well as STOFS and CBOFS all hint at the potential for
minor flooding at Annapolis early Wednesday as a result.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/DHOF/KJP
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/KJP/EST
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/KJP/EST