Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

813
FXUS61 KLWX 110128
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
928 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have removed mention of showers and thunderstorms along/east of
I-95 as the boundary layer stabilizes behind the earlier
convection. Otherwise, a convective threat remains for Thursday
and Friday, with the latter being more active as a cold front
pushes through the region.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Storm chances diminish tonight ahead of more active weather
  during subsequent days.

- 2) Hot and humid conditions return Thursday and Friday with a
  daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.

- 3) Drier conditions expected to start this weekend, before
  chances for showers and storms return by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Storm chances diminish tonight ahead of more
active weather during subsequent days.

While sub-severe in nature, a mixture of storm clusters and
convective lines moved across the region during the afternoon to
early evening hours. What remains of this thunderstorm activity
has pushed into southeastern Delaware and coastal New Jersey.
While a few spotty showers have popped up across north-central
Maryland, expect a dry start to the overnight period. The only
exception would the Allegheny Front which sees some increase in
showers after midnight. While the boundary layer will stabilize,
a spotty thunderstorm or two is possible given any elevated
instability. Areas off to the east will stay dry overnight with
some patchy fog, particularly near regions that saw appreciable
rainfall. Tonight`s low temperatures are forecast to range from
the mid 60s to low 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions return Thursday and
Friday with a daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Mid-level dry air will build in associated with shortwave-
ridging on Thursday. Thursday`s convective potential seems that
will be suppressed in coverage, but hot and humid conditions
will likely overcome any weak capping and may result in a threat
of locally damaging downburst winds.

Severe threat Fri appears to be significant greater as ridging
breaks down and height falls spread across the area supporting large
scale ascent. Hotter and even more humid conditions combined with an
approaching cold front will result in more widespread thunderstorm
coverage, potentially severe given large CAPE values in excess of
2000 J/kg.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier conditions expected to start this weekend,
before chances for showers and storms return by early next
week.

Cold front will cross the area Fri evening with storms ending giving
a dry less humid day Saturday. A weak cold front will cross the area
Sunday afternoon with more showers and thunderstorms, although the
amount of moisture and instability does not look overly strong.
Broad trough across the Great Lks and east of the Rockies will keep
the risk of showers next week, but instability looks meager to
support severe thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some patchy fog may develop tonight in areas that received more
appreciable rain and see some clearing/lighter winds. Otherwise,
any overnight shower threat will likely be confined to the
Allegheny Front.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Thursday and
Friday. Thunderstorm coverage is uncertain Thursday afternoon
and evening, but any storm could contain hail and strong wind
gusts. There is a higher chance of strong to severe
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front
approaches. Winds will be fairly light out of the west or
southwest both days.

VFR conditions are predominantly expected through the weekend,
with some reduced conditions possible on Sunday evening
associated with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds
flow out of the NW before shifting S Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Earlier Small Craft Advisories were allowed to drop off as wind
gusts have fallen below the necessary thresholds. Thus, there
are no marine hazards overnight. A recurrence of SMWs may be
needed in thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening and then
again Friday afternoon and evening due to severe thunderstorms.
A break in hazards Saturday and Sunday before the next
possibility of advisories and warnings become possible Sunday
night through the middle of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures are expected to soar to as much as 15 to 20 degrees
above average Thursday and Friday. This approaches or exceeds
daily record values at some sites.

Below is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures
for June 11th and 12th (Thursday and Friday).

=================================================================
            June 11th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows
=================================================================
Site            Record High                 Record Warm Low
DCA          101 F (set in 1911)      74 F (set in 2020 +6 others)
IAD           95 F (set in 2016)           72 F (set in 2005)
BWI           99 F (set in 1911)           75 F (set in 1914)
DMH          100 F (set in 1984)           79 F (set in 1984)
NAK           96 F (set in 2000)           79 F (set in 1973)
HGR           97 F (set in 1911)           73 F (set in 2005)
MRB          101 F (set in 1911)      71 F (set in 1927 and 1922)
CHO           99 F (set in 1911)           76 F (set in 2020)

=================================================================
            June 12th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows
=================================================================
Site            Record High                 Record Warm Low
DCA     95 F (set in 2017 +6 others)       77 F (set in 2015)
IAD           96 F (set in 1986)           72 F (set in 1986)
BWI     96 F (set in 1986 and 1914)        77 F (set in 1947)
DMH     96 F (set in 2025 +2 others)  77 F (set in 2017 and 2015)
NAK           98 F (set in 1914)      77 F (set in 2000 and 1973)
HGR     92 F (set in 2017 +5 others)  71 F (set in 2010 +5 others)
MRB     97 F (set in 1938 and 1933)        73 F (set in 1914)
CHO           98 F (set in 1914)      72 F (set in 1947 +2 others)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF