Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

612
FXUS61 KLWX 101345
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
845 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor tweaks were made to the precipitation potential forecast
east of the mountains this evening, including an outside chance
of brief/light freezing rain over northeastern Maryland.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A developing winter storm may impact the area this weekend,
  but the details remain highly uncertain.

- 2) Warmest temperatures of the week expected today, followed
  by cooling temperatures tomorrow through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A developing winter storm may impact the area
this weekend, but the details remain highly uncertain.

An evolving complex setup comes to play on Friday and into the
weekend as a potential winter storm affects areas of the East Coast.
Within the northern stream, a pair of stout upper lows are likely to
be meandering about the area spanning Quebec into Newfoundland.
Given their close proximity to one another, some degree of Fujiwara
Effect may take place. By Saturday, one of these low centers lifts
poleward to just south of Greenland. At the same time, an additional
closed low drifts southward to offshore of New England. How long
this latter feature persists off the coast of New England will also
impact how a strong southern stream system behaves this weekend.

Looking more closely at this southern stream feature, this initially
starts as an upper trough which reaches northern Baja California
early Friday. This is quite a formidable trough being characterized
by 500-mb anomalies around 1.5 to 2 standard deviations below
average. The track and intensity of this system remains uncertain,
but this feature does drive a potent area of surface low pressure
eastward across the central/eastern U.S. On Saturday morning, this
wave tracks across the Red River along Oklahoma/Texas before
reaching the Carolinas by Sunday evening. As these strong energetics
move into the eastern U.S., surface high pressure will be exiting.
How long any residual cold air can remain in place will control some
of the answer to whether the region sees another winter storm or
not. Given the strength of this trough, strong dynamical cooling
effects would certainly help make up for any issues with cold air.
However, this still remains 5 to 6 days out with deterministic
models scattered about. Solutions can range anywhere from a snow
storm, rain storm, wintry mix, or even have precipitation miss to
the south. Stay tuned.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmest temperatures of the week expected today, followed
by cooling temperatures tomorrow through Thursday.

A warm front is forecast to slowly lift through the Mid-
Atlantic today with continued warming temperatures expected.
The main impact from the passing warm front will be the large
spread in high temperatures across the forecast area today. In
the wake of the meandering front, temperatures in the valleys
of WV, central Shenandoah Valley, and central Virginia will rise
in the 50s to near 60. With limited cloud cover, noticeable
snowmelt is possible in these areas. Elsewhere, the front will
struggle to track north of I-66 before nightfall with high
temperatures staying in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Exactly where
the warm front will reach by peak daytime heating remains
uncertain and will play a large role in high temperatures today.

Behind the warm front, a strong moisture starved cold front
pushes across the forecast area tonight. In the wake of the
cold front, scattered to numerous shower activity may develop
along and west of the Allegheny Front. To the east, there may be
just enough moisture to result in a few showers this evening
mainly along the MD/PA border. Overall, precipitation chances
remain low across the Alleghenies and northern portions of the
forecast area with the rest of the area remaining dry today.

Blustery northwest winds bring the return of cooler temperatures
with highs on Wednesday staying in the 30s to low 50s. By
Thursday, highs will be in the 30s to 40s with higher elevations
staying in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As a warm front lifts north through the area, cloud cover
increases across the terminals. In addition to continued cloud
cover, LLWS is forecast at all terminals from 23Z-5Z. VFR
conditions are expected to continue across the terminals as dry
conditions persist through Wednesday. Southerly winds this
morning shift to westerly tonight, before becoming northwesterly
in the wake of a cold front Wednesday. Northwest winds gust 15
to 25 knots Wednesday through Thursday morning. Winds diminish
across the terminals Thursday afternoon as surface high pressure
builds over the region.

VFR conditions are expected on Friday into Saturday with high
pressure in charge. However, this ridge does move offshore ahead of
a possible winter storm that impacts the eastern U.S. If this system
were to impact the area terminals, expect restrictions by as early
as Saturday night. Winds during the period will be mainly out of the
northwest. An eventual shift to south to southeasterlies takes place
by Saturday evening into the night.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds remain below SCA criteria through this morning.
A few sporadic gusts around 18 kts are possible across the
southern portions of the waters this evening. At this time,
duration is too short to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. In the
wake of a cold front, winds shift to northwesterly on Wednesday
with Small Craft Advisories likely needed. Northwest winds gust
15 to 25 knots through Thursday morning before slowly diminishing
as surface high pressure builds over the waters. Winds drop
below SCA criteria Thursday night.

Wind fields across the marine waters largely stay below advisory
criteria on both Friday and Saturday. There might be a brief period
of near-Small Craft Advisory northwesterlies on Friday morning,
particularly across the more southern waters. Expect winds to shift
to southeasterly by Saturday evening into the night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/BRO/DHOF