Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

473
FXUS61 KLWX 050111
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
911 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made to the forecast with a Small Craft
Advisory in effect until 2PM Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near record temps today.

 2) A strong cold front will move through on Sun, bringing
rainfall and perhaps a chance for a t-storm. Much cooler air
moves in behind the front on Mon.

 3) Cooler temps expected next week along with surface high
pres building over the Mid-Atlantic by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record temps are expected today.

Temps have soared into the upper 70s to mid 80s this aftn.
Another couple ticks upward on the thermometer are possible this
aftn, which will allow for Max Temps for today to be broken or
tied at many climate sites.

Latest guidance has trended downward in terms of coverage of
showers or a rogue t-storm across the NW FA this aftn/eve. If
anything were to develop, likely this eve across the eastern
WV Panhandle, N`rn Shenandoah Valley, or western MD.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front will move through on
Sun, bringing rainfall and perhaps a chance for a t-storm. Much
cooler air moves in behind the front on Mon.

A strong cold front will pass through the FA during the morn to
early aftn hours tmrw. Still favoring a couple hour long period
of steady rain with FROPA. Overall rainfall looks to be around
a quarter to half an inch, with a localized min in the
downsloping areas just east of the Alleghenies.

The frontal passage will be unfavorably timed for
much instby to develop out ahead of it, but some weak
instby may build along and SE of I-95. Cannot rule out a few
t-storms along the front as it moves through these areas early
tmrw aftn. With a strong wind field in place aloft, any storms
that do form could conditionally pose a threat for some damaging
winds.

Winds will shift to out of the NW behind the front, and skies
will gradually clear out from NW to SE late tmrw aftn into tmrw
eve. Much cooler air will filter into the region behind the
front Sun night, with temps dropping back into the 30s and lower
40s. Mostly sunny skies are forecast for Mon, along with a w`ly
breeze and high temps ranging from the upper 40s in the mtns to
the mid 60s across Central VA. Most locales are expected to see
highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Surface high pres builds over the Mid-
Atlantic through midweek with cooler temps expected.

 Canadian high pres moves overhead through midweek, bringing
cooler temps to the FA. Tue will be the coolest day of the long
term period with highs ranging from low 40s in the Alleghenies
to low 60s in central Virginia.

Zonal flow takes over in the upper level flow for the next
several days, allowing for a potential multi-day period of
persistent high pres, lighter winds, and little to no rain in
the forecast through the end of next week. This will also allow
cooler temps brought on by Sun`s cold front to potentially
persist throughout the week, with highs on Wed forecasted to
range from the mid-40s over the Alleghenies to the mid-50s in
central VA. WAA from the south could start to bring a gradual
increase in the daily highs by late next week, but model
guidance on the upper-level pattern flow starts to vary quite a
bit by Thu`s timeframe. Expect some variability in the long-term
forecast in the short term as model guidance continues to agree
on the frontal movement towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail through tonight. Winds pick up out of the
south through the eve. Gusts of 20-25 knots may be possible
late tonight into tmrw morn. LLWS may also be possible for a
few hours tonight at BWI and MTN, but isn`t expected elsewhere.

Sub-VFR ceilings and rain are expected at all terminals tmrw
morn as a cold front moves through the area. There`s a very
small chance that a t-storm or two could form along the front as
it moves through late Sun morn into early Sun aftn. Winds shift
to NW`ly behind the front Sun aftn and conditions improve back
to VFR.

West to northwest winds winds are expected across all terminals
Mon and continuing into Tue. Winds Tue aftn will gust to 20-25
kts.

High pres moves in on Wed, bringing an overall decrease in
winds to 5-10 knots; gusts up to 15 knots are possible. N`ly
winds shift SE`ly at airfields by Wed aftn. Winds may increase
slightly on Thu with an incoming surface gradient, but still
remain primarily southerly in the 5-10 knot range, with gusts
between 15-20 knots expected across terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect for all waters late this aftn through Sun
morn within southerly flow. A cold front will move over the
waters early tmrw aftn. Showers and a few t-storms may
accompany the front, and SMWs may potentially be needed if any
stronger storms were to form. Winds shift to out of the
northwest behind the front later tmrw aftn, and could reach
low- end SCA levels at times tmrw eve into tmrw night. Sub-SCA
level westerly winds are expected on Mon.

SCAs are likely on Tue as northwest winds gust around 20 knots
through the aftn. Winds diminish overnight, although advisories
may be needed in the srn portions of the bay as gusts between
15 and 20 kts continue through Wed morn. As surface high
pres builds over the area, winds diminish across all waters and
are expected to stay below SCA on Wed.

NE winds may continue to gust 15-20 kts in the srn portions of
the Chesapeake Bay through Wed morn, eventually decreasing to
sub-SCA levels by the aftn. High pres moves over the waters
during this time, shifting winds east/southeast by Thu morn.
Sub-SCA level SE`ly winds are expected on Thu.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KJP/CPB/SRT
AVIATION...CPB/SRT
MARINE...CPB/SRT