Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

620
FXUS61 KLWX 311428
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1028 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes needed to the forecast. Any pop up showers this
afternoon will be isolated at best.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Near record temperatures through Wednesday ahead of an
  approaching cold front that looks to bring showers and perhaps
  a few strong to severe thunderstorms.

- 2) A front will waver near the region during the second half
  of the week before being overtaken by a stronger cold front
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record temperatures through Wednesday ahead
of an approaching cold front that looks to bring showers and
perhaps a few strong to severe thunderstorms.

It will be much warmer through Wednesday with temperatures
expected to push to near record levels. Highs will punch into
the upper 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 50s to
low 60s. Shortwave ridging should keep most of the area dry
today, with a few possible exceptions:

(1) Between I-95 and I-81 near/north of I-66/US-50 - here,
there will be a bit of pooled low-level moisture and CAPE.
(2) Over the Appalachians - terrain circulations could induce a
pop up shower or thunderstorm.

Although it is expected to be dry outside of the above listed
areas (and even there coverage should be low), it is worth
mentioning that a few members of recent experimental CAM
guidance have a couple thunderstorms drifting toward I-95 late
in the day. This appears to be around a 5-10 percent chance, and
thus not explicitly mentioned in the forecast at the moment.

Given weak flow and forcing as well as meager CAPE, the severe
threat is low. However, 30 kts of flow at 700 hPa and steepened
low-level lapse rates could still lead to gusty winds.

Higher thunderstorm coverage is expected Wednesday afternoon
and evening as a cold front drops into the region. There is some
question regarding thunderstorm coverage due to height rises
later in the day. The latest guidance is a bit less pronounced
with a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer (EML) air, perhaps
due to some shower activity in the morning possibly turning the
column over a bit. Still, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km
and near 30 kts 0-6km bulk shear may be sufficient for a few
stronger storms with gusty winds or perhaps a little hail. A
more robust severe threat may be tempered by modest low-level
downsloping flow and moisture, as well as height the rises.

Any convection should diminish Wednesday evening and night as
the boundary sags south of the area.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...A front will waver near the region during the second
half of the week before being overtaken by a stronger cold front
Sunday.

The aforementioned frontal boundary will lift northward Friday
as low pressure scoots well north of the area. Temperatures
will moderate in return with widespread 70s to low 80s.
Precipitation chances Friday look to be lower, but still non-
zero as the main forcing is north of the area. The main concern
would be a terrain driven feature to develop.

Saturday looks like a rinse, wash, and repeat day with terrain-
driven convection as the main forcing remains north of the area.
Some guidance does have the front nearby, but most keeps it to
the north. Regardless, it will likely be warm again with highs
a tick or two above those of Friday.

A cold front moves southward across the area Sunday. This looks
like a widespread wetting rain (a few tenths of an inch).
Instability is rather low, so thunderstorms may be limited. Rain
moves out by Monday with temperatures falling back closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through tonight,
although a brief shower or isolated t-storm cannot be ruled out
mainly near KMRB 18Z-22Z. Breezy conditions will remain with
south to southwest gusts of 15 to 20 kts during the overnight
periods and 20 to 25 kts likely during the daytime hours.

Sub-VFR conditions are expected to return Wednesday and Thursday as
a cold front sags through the region. The front will bring
widespread gusty showers and perhaps a few strong to severe
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will shift
from the southwest to southeast Thursday. Depending on how far
south the front makes it and how much moisture is left in its
wake, there could be lower CIGs Wednesday night-Thursday.

The front moves back northward Friday with southerly wind gusts
to 20 kts possible. Winds come down a few knots Saturday.
Cannot rule out some restrictions in any rain showers Friday or
Saturday, but as long as front is north it should be prevailing
VFR conditions into the first half of the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty south to southwest flow will remain given the gradient
between high pressure offshore and a slow-moving cold front
approaching from the Great Lakes region. Additional SCAs may be
needed in the wake of the front with east to southeast flow
Wednesday night into Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances
return to the waters Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold
front drops into the area. Wind direction is a bit uncertain
Thursday as a front will be stalled near the area.

With the front likely pushing back north of the area Friday,
southerly winds will prevail into Saturday. Winds Friday likely
result in SCA conditions across the waters. More uncertainty
Saturday, with winds nearing SCA criteria especially late.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures of 15 to 25 degrees above normal are expected
Tuesday and Wednesday. Below is a list of record daily high
temperatures for our regional climate sites.

=========================================================
Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows for March 31
Site       High/Year(s) Set       Warm Low/Year(s) Set
DCA        85/2025, 1981, 1979    63/1998
BWI        86/2025, 1998          68/1998
IAD        85/1998                62/1998
DMH        93/1998                73/1998
NAK        83/1979, 1945          61/1977
HGR        85/1998                57/1998
MRB        86/1998                62/1998
CHO        88/1986                67/1910

Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows for April 1
Site       High/Year(s) Set       Warm Low/Year(s) Set
DCA        88/1978                64/2016
BWI        88/1978                62/2016
IAD        85/1978                64/2016
DMH        90/1978                69/1998
NAK        87/1978                60/1998
HGR        84/1978                60/1912
MRB        85/1943                58/2016
CHO        88/1978                68/1998
=========================================================

     Period of Record (POR) context...

.Washington DC area (DCA)...
Weather records for the Washington DC area have been recorded
at what is now Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA)
since 1941. The official weather record consists of that data
back to 1945, and observations taken in downtown Washington from
1871 to 1944. Temperature records for the Washington DC area
extend back to January 1872.

.Baltimore MD area (BWI)...
Weather records for the Baltimore MD area have been recorded at
what is now Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood
Marshall Airport (KBWI) since 1950. The official weather record
consists of that data back to 1950, and observations taken in
downtown Baltimore from 1871 through 1949. Temperature records
for the Baltimore MD area extend back to July 1872.

.Sterling-Dulles Airport VA area (IAD)...
Weather records for the Sterling-Dulles Airport VA area have
been recorded at what is now Washington Dulles International
Airport (KIAD) since 1960. The official record consists solely
of data recorded at the airport.

.Baltimore Downtown MD area (DMH)...
Weather records for the Baltimore Downtown MD area have been
recorded at what is now the Maryland Science Center (KDMH)
since 1999. The official weather record consists of that data
back to 1999, and observations taken in the City of Baltimore
from July 1950 through 1998. Data is missing from June 3 of 2020
through August 14 of 2022 when the observing system had to be
removed due to a large construction project.

.Annapolis MD area (NAK)...
Weather records for the Annapolis MD area have been recorded at
what is now the Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy (KNAK) since
October 11 of 2001. The official weather record consists of that
data back to 2001, and observations that were taken between the
Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy and the Annapolis Police Barracks
from July of 1894 through October 10 of 2001.

.Hagerstown MD area (HGR)....
Weather records for the Hagerstown MD area have been recorded at
what is now Hagerstown Regional Airport (KHGR) since October of
1998. The official weather record consists of that data back to
October of 1998, and observations taken one mile east of
Hagerstown from 1899 through September of 1998.

.Martinsburg WV area (MRB)...
Weather records for the Martinsburg WV area have been recorded
at what is now Eastern West Virginia Regional Airport/Shepherd
Field (KMRB) since 1938. The official weather record consists of
that data back to 1944, and observations taken in downtown
Martinsburg from 1891 through 1943.

.Charlottesville VA area (CHO)...
Weather records for the Charlottesville VA area have been
recorded at what is now Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport (KCHO)
since April 20 of 1961. The official weather record consists of
that data back to April 20 of 1961, and observations taken two
miles west of downtown Charlottesville from 1983 through April
19 of 1961.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/CPB/EST
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB/EST
MARINE...DHOF/CPB/EST