Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

955
FXUS61 KLWX 011334
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Locally heavy rain possible Sunday into Monday, with
  an active weather pattern expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Locally heavy rain possible Sunday into Monday,
with an active weather pattern expected next week.

Early/mid morning visible satellite imagery depicts increasing
high clouds pushing in from the west. While moist in the upper
levels, the 12Z IAD sounding shows ample dry air in the 650-400
mb layer which would aid in rapid evaporation. As such, the
forecast stays dry through through the morning hours.

High pressure departing east over the Atlantic today will bring the
return of a warm southerly breeze across the region. Highs are
forecast to reach the mid 80s to low 90s, and there is going to be a
noticeable increase in humidity. Still, brief mid-level ridging
aloft is going to keep a cap on convection today as only a few stray
showers are possible this afternoon.

Attention turns to the low pressure system and its associated cold
front over the Midwest that slowly moves east across the OH Valley
this weekend into early next week. The base of the mid-level trough
is forecast to pinch off over the lower OH Valley tonight, though
still remain attached to the parent upper trough. Through the start
of next week the lobes of energy along the upper trough become more
elongated, stretching south into the TN Valley, then stall near the
central Appalachians during the early to middle part of next week.
The cold front also stalls over the area sometime early next week.
To our east, the Bermuda High builds into the western Atlantic and
likely remains in place through the end of next week.

The Mid-Atlantic, sandwiched between these two nearly stationary
synoptic features, will see a steady stream of deep tropical
moisture advecting into the region. Ample heat and humidity is going
to produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms each day starting
Sunday, and possibly continuing through all of next week.

There is some potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon/evening, with SPC maintaining the Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) across most of the area. Damaging wind gusts look to
be the primary threat with any severe storm that develops.
Precipitable water values rise into the 2 to 2.25" range, which will
enhance the potential for heavy rainfall in any thunderstorm. The
7/31 12Z and early 8/1 00Z ensemble guidance remain in flux
regarding high-end rainfall amounts, so the rainfall forecast
remains uncertain. Widespread amounts of 0.5" to 1" are most likely
Sunday into Monday, but a stripe of localized higher rain amounts
are possible. It is hard to point to any specific area that is most
at risk at this moment, so be sure to keep up with future forecast
updates. Since storm motion will be fast, any flood threat is going
to come from repeated rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Flood Watches
may be needed if confidence increases, but does not seem likely at
this time.

Beyond Monday, the greatest concentration of thunderstorms is likely
be over the terrain and in/around where the bay/river breeze sets
up. Overall coverage remain scattered, but likely amplified during
the peak heating period given the high PWATS (1.5-2"+) sitting over
the region. Any flood threat would remain relegated to poor drainage
areas pending repetitive rounds of storms or if storm track/sit over
an urban location. Highs in the upper 80s to 90F.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail through tonight as an upper trough and
associated cold front approach from the west. South winds gust
around 20 knots this afternoon, then drop this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to move across the area Sunday afternoon
and evening, and these could produce brief reductions if they move
over a terminal. Shower chances increase into Sunday night which
will likely yield sub-VFR conditions as ceilings lower. Expect sub-
VFR conditions to continue at times Monday through the middle of
next week as the front stalls nearby.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for this afternoon to
evening as southerly channeling brings gusts of 20-25 knots.
Similar winds are forecast for Monday, with another round of
SCAs likely needed for most of the waters. Thunderstorms return
to the forecast Sunday afternoon/evening, and some of these
could be strong. Special Marine Warnings may be needed, with
strong gusts over 35 knots as the primary threat to mariners.

Winds drop below SCA levels Monday night, though additional periods
of southerly channeling may lead to SCAs at times next week. Daily
showers and thunderstorms are expected next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies slowly rise this weekend as southerly flow
strengthens, with sensitive locations approaching minor flood stage
at times over the next few days. Annapolis is most likely to see
minor tidal flooding. South winds are forecast to persist for much
of next week, so additional periods of coastal flooding are possible.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Sunday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ530-531-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/KRR
AVIATION...KRR
MARINE...KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX