Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

513
FXUS61 KLWX 191916
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
216 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast from what was sent out this morning.
Still monitoring 12z model guidance as it begins to trickle in,
especially in regards to the potential winter weather threat
this weekend. More updates, if necessary, during the afternoon
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Very cold conditions are expected over the region through
  Tuesday night.

- 2) Near-record cold this weekend, along with increasing
  potential for a significant winter storm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold conditions are expected over the
region through Tuesday night.

A few snow showers remain over western Garrett county this
afternoon amidst some streamers off the Great Lakes. Amounts
have been minimal, and snow should come to an end later this
afternoon.

For elevations generally above 3500 feet, wind gusts of 45-50
mph are likely today into tonight as the front passes. Wind
Advisories remain in effect for this threat through 8 PM this
evening. Thus far, wind gusts have been pretty few and far
between in the Wind Advisory, but mainly due to low observation
network. Still gusty either way, so keeping advisory up for now,
especially with strongest winds still to come as the front
pushes through.

The reinforcing Arctic front will cross the Mid-Atlantic,
moving offshore by this evening. In its wake, 850 hPa temps
tumble to -15 to -20 C. This equates to surface temperatures in
the teens by early Tuesday morning, with single digits at
higher elevations. Combined with a blustery northwest wind, it
will feel more like the single digits for much of the area, with
wind chills of -10 to -20 at higher elevations (as cold as -30
above 3500 feet in the Alleghenies). Cold Weather headlines
remain in place for those areas tonight as a result.

Temperatures struggle to escape the 20s for much of the area
Tuesday (teens in the mountains) with perhaps only portions of
the central VA piedmont to southern MD poking above freezing for
a few hours in the afternoon. It will moderate but remain
colder than normal Wednesday ahead of another approaching front.
Main thing to really note on both days outside of the cold
temperatures is the very dry nature of the air mass. Some
guidance is hinting at RH values in the low teens tomorrow
afternoon, then in the 20s on Wednesday. With temps so cold, not
necessarily anticipating a wildfire threat, so will not do an
explicit fire weather discussion for now. However, if this were
a warmer day, especially Tuesday, would be a bit concerning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential continues for possibly significant winter
storm this weekend, followed by extremely cold conditions next
week.

A potent cold front pushes through the region late Thursday into
Friday, followed by a reinforcing Arctic front late Friday into
Saturday. This will lead to increasingly cold conditions each day
from Thursday through the entire weekend. Well below average
temperatures are forecast, especially by Sunday. In addition, some
upslope snow showers are possible with each front. Extremely cold
temperatures are becoming likely Sunday night into next week, with
lows in the single digits and wind chills at or below zero. Near-
record low temperatures are possible.

The latest 12Z guidance today continues to show the possibility of a
significant winter storm across our area this weekend. One noted
trend is that precip onset is a bit later, with the heaviest precip
over the area now occurring Saturday night through sometime Sunday
afternoon. Additionally, the probabilities for freezing rain have
dropped to almost zero, mainly due to the strong Arctic high to the
north ushering in very cold temps at the surface and aloft. As a
result, the NBM 48-hour probability for at least 6 inches of snow
are at 40-60pct, and around 20-30pct for 1 foot of snow. One big
thing to note is that there could be a sharp QPF gradient on the
north side of the system, with that sharp cutoff possibly setting up
somewhere over our area. This would result in lower snow totals
along the MD/PA border, with increasing totals to the south.

The upper-level pattern becomes quite active in both the northern
and southern branches of the jet stream. Models seem to be in at
least good agreement regarding the development of a low pressure
system that tracks across the southern U.S. A broad area of
baroclinic/frontogenetic forcing will develop along the interaction
of the Arctic high to the north and deepening low. Ensemble guidance
continues to show an amplified southern stream influence - something
we have seen very little of so far this winter (typical of La Nina).
The surface low may not escape as easily out to sea given the -NAO
block. The nearby steady source of very cold air and the amplified
southern stream occurring in tandem are what raise some red flags
for significant wintry precipitation potential this weekend.

Depending on where the frontal zone is and where the area of low
pressure tracks, there could be significant wintry precipitation
this weekend over a large part of the South to Mid-Atlantic CONUS.
The potential is still there for that strong Arctic high pressure to
suppress the low pressure system to our south. However, the
strengthening upstream blocking pattern could essentially put a
floor on how far south the low will track.

It is important to monitor this threat closely this week as the
different parts of the system become better sampled by surface and
upper air obs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clearing skies this afternoon as an arctic front rolls through
the region. Winds become W to NW this afternoon into this
evening with gusts of 20-30 kt possible. Winds will diminish a
bit tonight, then pick up again at slightly lower speeds
Tuesday, closer to 20-25 knots.

Winds will then turn southerly Wednesday ahead of the next
front. This front likely won`t bring precipitation to the TAF
sites as it crosses Thursday, with another (probably dry) front
Friday. These fronts will keep winds elevated at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves of gusty winds will affect the tidal waters through
midweek. Winds will gust 15-25 kts this morning out of the SW
ahead of a front. W/NW winds gusting 20-30 kts are likely this
evening, lingering overnight over the open waters. Additional
gustiness is anticipated Tuesday, then turning lighter Tuesday
night.

Winds turn southerly with 15-20 kt gusts possible Wednesday
ahead of the next approaching front. This front should come
through dry, with a secondary (dry) front Friday. Each of these
fronts likely bring increases in winds across the waters. SCAs
may be needed at several different times through the end of the
week as a result.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ008.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for VAZ504-507-508.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for VAZ503.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ050-055-502>504-506.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ501-505.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ535-536.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/KRR
AVIATION...CJL
MARINE...CJL