Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KLWX 130736
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
336 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
While the forecast has maintained thunder chances early this
morning, the satellite/radar appearance suggest any threat is on
the low side. Otherwise, showers are expected to exit the area
by a couple hours after sunrise. Northwesterly winds behind the
early Monday cold front have seen an uptick. Afternoon gusts
could approach 25 mph at times, particularly during the period
of peak vertical mixing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Some lingering showers this morning before turning cooler
  with less humidity on Monday and Tuesday.

- 2) Warm and dry conditions through the end of the week;
  showers possible along a cold front next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some lingering showers this morning before
turning cooler with less humidity on Monday and Tuesday.

Early morning local radar imagery shows multiple areas of light
to moderate shower activity. A bulk of this is emerging off the
Allegheny Front and tracking across the Shenandoah Valley.
Despite the somewhat lackluster appearance of these showers,
quasi-tropical rain rates are being observed. Based on upstream
trends, 3-hour precipitation totals are generally around 0.25
to 0.50 inches, locally approaching an inch in spots. Despite
the 06Z RAP objective analysis depicting most unstable CAPE
values in the 500-750 J/kg range, this has not been enough to
produce any recent lightning activity. The lone exception is
approaching Highland County from the south as storms lift away
from Hot Springs, Virginia. With most hydrographs featuring
current water levels well below any pre-defined stages, any
flooding risk appears low at this time.

The array of showers will progress eastward to the I-95 corridor
by 4-6 AM timeframe before exiting off into northeastern
Maryland by just after sunrise. While much of the remainder of
the day will be dry, a warm front just south of the Richmond
metro area is forecast to cross the region later this morning.
This may help induce a few additional showers, but these should
be rather disorganized in nature. By the afternoon, expect more
sun than clouds which will help crank temperatures back well
into the 80s. This is aided by a weak downslope component to the
winds as they shift to northwesterly. Despite the wind shift,
humidity levels do remain elevated with dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Heading into tonight, an approaching cold front from the Great
Lakes may induce additional showers along and west of the
Allegheny Front. Otherwise, this is largely a drier frontal
passage which will also lead to cool temperatures and lower
humidity to start off the work week. Gradients are rather tight
for mid-September as a broad 1024-mb surface high approaches
from the Great Lakes. This will favor a breezy northwesterly
wind for Monday, with afternoon gusts up to 20 to 25 mph at
times. Forecast highs are in the mid 70s to low 80s (5 to 15
degrees cooler for mountain locales). As the seasonably strong
dome of high pressure settles over the northeastern U.S. on
Monday night, low temperatures plunge into the upper 40s to 50s.
The autumnal feel to the air lingers into Tuesday before an
eventual warm up by mid-week. Plenty of sunshine can be expected
each day, but with decreasing winds on Tuesday with the ridge
along the Eastern Seaboard. This all comes with dew points in
the upper 40s to mid 50s which is certainly a change from recent
days.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm and dry conditions through the end of the
week; showers possible along a cold front next weekend.

A strong upper ridge builds over the region during the middle
portion of the week supporting very warm and dry conditions. Not
looking at any record highs since records are in the mid 90s.
The ridge begins to flatten at the end of the week as it starts
feeling pressure from a deepening trough over Hudson Bay. A
front eventually sinks southward at the end of the week possibly
bringing few-sct showers. Overall, very warm and dry this week,
turning cooler and potentially wetter for late September.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low ceilings are commonplace early this morning as a warm front
slowly approaches from central Virginia. Most terminals are
seeing borderline IFR conditions. This comes wth an array of
light to moderate showers tracking eastward from the Shenandoah
Valley. The forecast calls for such activity to impact
downstream TAF sites in Washington, D.C. and Baltimore through
just after daybreak. MVFR ceilings persist through the mid/late
morning before improvements to VFR take shape by midday.
Thereafter, clouds should continue to erode which allows for
some sun to break out.

VFR conditions continue through Tuesday as well. Winds remain
weak today, generally out of the west to northwest. A seasonably
strong cold front tracks through early Monday which yields
post-frontal northwesterlies with gusts to around 20 to perhaps
25 knots. Winds eventually weaken into Tuesday as high pressure
builds over the region.

Fair weather conditions expected through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Overall conditions are quiet over the waterways with south to
southeasterly gusts topping out around 10 knots. Some showers
will cross the waters early this morning, but the threat for
lightning is quite low. A cold front arriving early Monday is
forecast to yield increasing northwesterly winds with gusts up
to 20 to 25 knots. Small Craft Advisories look quite likely on
Monday into portions of Monday night. Multiple wind shifts take
place on Tuesday as high pressure passes by to the north.
However, gusts drop off back into the 5 to 10 knot range.

Sub-advisory conditions continue into Wednesday and Thursday
with gusts to around 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain elevated, generally sitting in the 0.75
to 1 foot range. This is enough to put a number of locations
into Action stage, especially during the higher of the two
astronomical high tides. At this point, no site is forecast to
reach Minor flood stage through tonight. A cold front moves
through by early Monday which should bring an end to any coastal
flooding potential.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO
AVIATION...LFR/BRO
MARINE...LFR/BRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX