Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

536
FXUS61 KLWX 271411
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1011 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over Quebec through midweek. A low
pressure system will pass south of the area tonight into
Tuesday, but a second low moving from the Tennessee Valley to
the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a higher chance of rain
Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure will build south of the
area Friday into Saturday, but another disturbance may quickly
approach from the northwest the second half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High level clouds will encompass much of the area the remainder
of the day as a cirrus shield fans toward the northeast across
interior Virginia. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees
below average and reach the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The closed low will move across Tennessee toward North Carolina
tonight, with a surface low eventually developing off the
southeast coast toward Tuesday morning. This helps shove
moisture a little farther northward. Rain chances will be
confined near and south of I-64 in Virginia and perhaps reach
far southern Maryland late. Any rain will be light. Even with
the increase in cloud cover, the northern extent could be
thinner across the northern quarter of the forecast area.
Therefore, some lows could drop into the lower to mid 30s.
Elsewhere expect upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Previous discussion...
Some details get questionable as early as Tuesday, depending on
how the opening wave in the Carolinas interacts with the closed
low over New England, and how far north the coastal low is
drawn. There is still some possibility that a lot of areas
remain dry into Wednesday morning, although there is some
convergence on the idea of light rain showers gradually
spreading northward with time Tuesday through early Wednesday.
The highest rain chances during this time will be south of DC
closer to the stalled baroclinic zone. Regardless of rain
potential, Tuesday will be cloudier and cooler (most places fail
to reach 60F) with a gusty northeast wind. Depending on the
northward extent of the precipitation and how the thermal
profiles evolve, the high peaks above 4000 ft in the Alleghenies
could even see some mixed precipitation.

A digging trough through the Plains eventually merges all the
other troughs into a closed low in the mid south, accompanied by
an area of low pressure that will approach from the southwest Wednesday
night. This low will eventually spread a moderate to perhaps
briefly heavy rainfall into the area late Wednesday into
Wednesday night, with some uncertainty remaining about timing.
There is even some potential across the I-95 corridor of an
embedded thunderstorm due to some weak elevated instability.
Overall rainfall should be beneficial, though can`t rule out
some ponding issues should heavier rain rates evolve. The strong
wind fields around this low could result in gusty winds along
the western facing Alleghenies Wednesday night, but east to
northeast winds will be noticeable everywhere during this time.
Wednesday`s highs will remain in the 50s, dropping only 5-10
degrees Wednesday night in the rain (and possibly rising in some
areas depending on the low track).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain likely persists into Thursday across much of the FA as an area
of low pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic. Rainfall does look
soaking with amounts of an inch or so likely in ensemble
guidance. Some uncertainty remains wrt how quickly the UL low
pulls away Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall looks beneficial
given recent drought. Upslope precipitation likely lingers into
Friday or Friday night across the Alleghenies with the
potential for some snow mixing in as the system pulls away.
Thermals are not the best, but the higher peaks are favored for
some snow in most ensemble guidance.

Drier conditions are expected Friday though it will be brisk across
the area with the low pulling away and a tightened pressure
gradient. Winds gusting to 25-35 mph are likely out of the NW.

High pressure briefly builds in Saturday before the renewed chance
for rain showers Sunday as a warm front moves towards the Mid-
Atlantic.

Temperatures will remain below average through the long term. Much
of the same with highs in the 50s (30s or 40s in the mtns). Somewhat
of a warming trend next weekend, but likely towards seasonal norms.
Lows through the period in the mid 30s to 40s outside the mtns.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will provide VFR conditions and northeast
winds less than 10 kt this afternoon and tonight. Could see
some showers approach CHO tonight into Tuesday as low pressure
passes to the south, but confidence in any impacts is not high
enough to include in the TAF. Northeasterly winds also turn
gusty after sunrise Tuesday, with some gusts of 20-25 kt
possible.

Uncertainty continues as to how quickly ceilings will lower as
moisture from low pressure off the coast battles dry air from
high pressure to the north. CHO could see MVFR ceilings as early
as Tuesday, but with increasing chances Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Lower ceilings, likely eventually reaching IFR will
spread northward Wednesday into Wednesday night as another low
pressure system approaches. Moderate rain will also overspread
the area along with continued gusty northeast winds.

Sub-VFR conditions are expected at times Thursday due to periods of
rain and reduced CIGs. Conditions improve Friday, though winds
become gusty out of the NW at 25-30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the north will provide northeasterly winds
this afternoon. A few marginal gusts up to 20 kt could occur in
the Point Lookout/Tangier Sound vicinity during the day, but
overall winds will be sub advisory. The pressure gradient
tightens tonight as low pressure moves off the southeast coast.
Advisories will go into effect along the bay, with the
increasing winds spreading south to north overnight. After 8 AM
Tuesday, an advisory is in effect for all waters, with some
gusts of 25-30 kt not out of the question.

Winds may drop off on the sheltered waters Tuesday night, but
most likely advisories will be needed straight through Wednesday
night with a continued strong northeast to easterly gradient.
Depending on the track and strength of low pressure approaching
from the Tennessee Valley, some locations could approach gale
force winds later Wednesday night.

At least SCA (possibly gale) conditions continue Thursday as the
low moves through. SCA conditions will likely continue in post-
frontal N to NW flow Friday and Saturday. Some guidance suggests
gale conditions are also possible Friday as the low strengthens
toward New England.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Increasing northeasterly winds toward mid week will trap water
in the bay, leading to gradually rising tidal anomalies. A few
locations may approach minor flood Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Peak levels Wednesday night into Thursday as low pressure moves
across the area. If the track of the low remains inland and
winds turn southerly, some locations could even reach moderate
flooding.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537-539>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ535-
     536-538.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/KLW
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/CPB
MARINE...ADS/KLW/CPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS