Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

744
FXUS61 KLWX 071926
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast for remnants of Isaias over our area trending drier
and a little slower Sunday evening. SCA has been issued for
tonight for the waters south of Drum Point.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Quiescent weather expected through the end of the week.

- 2) Remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias arrive late this
     weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...


KEY MESSAGE 1...Quiescent weather expected through the end of
the week.

Milder night on tap as southerly winds prevail ahead of a dry
cold frontal passage Thu morning. Warmer tomorrow as gusty
downslope NW winds develop in the wake of the frontal passage.

Cooler weather to end the week as high pressure of Canadian
origin builds in. High pressure center settles in by Saturday
morning with low temps in the 40s and 50s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias arrive late this
weekend.

As of today, the National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories
on Tropical Storm Isaias down in the Bay of Campeche. This Tropical
cyclone will need to be monitored closely in the coming days in
regards to potential impacts to our region late this weekend. There
remains a great deal of uncertainty, owing to a complex upper-level
pattern ahead of it. A cutoff low over the southern Plains and an
area of high pressure over Florida will act as the primary steering
mechanisms in the coming days. The big questions are going to be...
where does it go, and how fast does does it get there? A track
directly over our area is highly unlikely at this time. However, it
does seem likely to track somewhere up into the MS River Valley and
then eventually up towards the Great Lakes as it transitions into a
non-tropical low.

At present, the most likely impacts to our region will be rain.
However, there isn`t a great concern for flooding at this time, as
the system should be progressive and much of the region could use a
good soaking rain to help with drought relief. That being said, this
system is still several days out, so we will be monitoring any
rainfall trends closely as the time draws closer. There is also a
non-zero, but very small, chance that some severe weather could
occur as a result of the remnants of Isaias. However, again, this
will greatly depend on how the upper-level pattern evolves and
interacts with Isaias as it moves into our region. Main threat, if
it materializes would be the non-zero threat of a quick tornado on
Sunday afternoon/evening.

All of this to say, we just simply don`t know if Isaias will bring
any significant impacts our way. However, as is the case with any
tropical cyclone, it will be important to stay tuned to the forecast
over the next few days. Monitor hurricanes.gov for details on
Isaias.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Main wx change next 24 hrs is windshift Thu morning behind a dry
cold frontal passage. Otherwise, P6SM SKC through 21Z Fri. Then,
increasing high clouds Fri night.

VFR conditions are expected Saturday as high pressure remains
dominant over the region. Winds will be out of the S to SE on
Saturday at 5 to 10 knots.

More uncertainty going into Sunday, but sub-VFR conditions are
possible if we do manage to get any rain associated with the area of
low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds are fcst to strengthen this evening across the
waters tonight. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for tonight
for the waters south of Drum Point. Winds tomorrow could flirt
with SCA across the northern waters. Winds drop below SCA by Thu
afternoon.

Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria on Saturday as high
pressure remains dominant over the region. However, by Saturday
evening, we could see a brief burst of southerly channeling winds
that come close to criteria. Confidence is low at this time.

Winds will be on the increase on Sunday ahead of the remnants of
Isaias, with high-end SCA conditions possible. SCAs seem likely for
much of the day and into Sunday night.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL