Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

491
FXUS61 KLWX 031405
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
905 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some flurries have developed north of US-50. There may be a
focus of localized steadier snow showers tonight south of US-50
to near I-64. A targeted advisory may be needed once this small
scale feature comes into better focus later today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A clipper-like system will bring very light snow to the
  area this afternoon and this evening.

- 2) Another Arctic front arrives Friday bringing additional
  chances for snow, followed by bitter cold wind chills.

- 3) Arctic front may also cause damaging winds and power
  outages late Friday night into Saturday, gale to storm force
  winds over the waters, and freezing spray over ice-free
  waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A clipper-like system will bring very light snow to the area
 this afternoon and this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A thin layer of low clouds around 5kft has kept temperatures
steady in the mid 20s overnight, which is nearly 10F warmer than
the previous night. Model trends also indicate high temperatures
today will be around 6F degs warmer than yesterday which would
result in highs near 40F south of the Potomac River and mid 30s
along the Pennsylvania border. This suggests that any snow
accumulation today will have to wait until after dark.
Therefore, have delayed our winter precip onset by a few hours
for areas east of the Allegheny Mountains.

Nothing has really changed significantly with respect to the
clipper-like system passing south of the area tonight. If
anything, QPF has trended lower across northern areas and
mainly focused along the I-64 corridor. Given the short duration
of the event, six hours at most, only a trace to around half
inch of snow is expected. There is also a possibility that
no precip falls at all, which is particularly true north of
Washington DC. Areas south of I-64 may also be too warm for all
snow and the precip may mix with rain at times or melt in
contact. The snow will exit the area by daybreak Wed, likely
sooner. For the Allegheny Mountains, still expecting 2 to 3
inches of accumulation. Given very marginal/borderline
temperatures, uncertainty on exactly where precip falls, and
expected little or no impact, no special commuting hazard
statement will be issued.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Another Arctic front arrives Friday bringing additional
 chances for snow, followed by bitter cold Arctic air.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Snow showers and/or squalls are becoming increasingly likely
areawide Friday afternoon and evening prior to the Arctic
frontal passage.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Arctic front may also cause damaging winds and power outages late
  Friday night into Saturday, gale to storm force winds over
 the waters, and freezing spray over ice-free waters.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

Global models indicate strong sfc cyclogenesis over the western
Atlantic in response to deepening trough over the Northeast.
00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance showed a significant
upward trend in low-level winds late Fri night into Sat with
mean sfc gusts above wind advisory criteria and a slight risk of
wind gusts 50 kt or greater.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly cloudy skies north of US-50 and west of the Blue Ridge
are being observed this morning, and should hold steady into the
afternoon before becoming overcast areawide by this evening.
Cloud bases are generally 3500 to 5000 feet. A few flurries are
possible, as well, though accumulation or visibility reductions
are not expected until this evening. Winds will be light out of
the south today.

There may be a relative focus of precip (steady light snow) near
KCHO/just south of KIAD/KDCA tonight roughly 02Z-08Z. Lower CIGs
and VSBYs are likely even outside of snow as the low levels are
somewhat saturated. Will monitor for potential of any freezing
drizzle as temps drop and low levels remain saturated/winds light.

VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Thursday. However,
another wave of low pressure passing to the south on Wednesday
could feasibly bring some flurries to KCHO. Winds will turn N/NW
and become blustery with gusts of 15-20 kts at times.

A strong Arctic front will dive through the region Friday.
Mainly light winds and VFR are expected to start, but snow
showers followed by rapidly falling temperatures and very gusty
NW winds are expected Friday night into Saturday. Gusts could
exceed 35-40 knots at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds around 5 knots are expected through tonight,
generally south to west today then southeast to east tonight.
Winds will turn northerly to northwesterly Wednesday into
Thursday. Gusts will increase behind a weak wave of low pressure
with SCAs likely needed for portions of the waters. The wind may
lighten a bit Wednesday night before a reinforcing period of
gusts drops through on Thursday.

Relatively light winds on Friday will increase a bit ahead of an
Arctic front out of the southwest. SCAs are possible. As the
Arctic front crosses, an abrupt wind shift to northwest and a
sudden increase in gusts are expected Friday night, especially
after midnight. Solid gale conditions are most likely late
Friday night into Saturday (though timing may waver a bit), but
storm-force winds can`t totally be ruled out (see: ECMWF upward
trend in winds over the last few cycles).

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight EST
     tonight for MDZ509.
VA...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight EST
     tonight for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/SRT
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/SRT