Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

167
FXUS61 KLWX 010815
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
415 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory was expanded slightly into the lower
tidal Potomac River through Monday morning. A few sprinkles may
accompany a weak disturbance late tonight into early Monday,
mainly east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Continuing to monitor
tide levels tonight into Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Below normal temperatures continue through mid week, with a chance
  for showers or a thunderstorm Tuesday.

- 2) Temperatures increase leading up to the weekend, along with
  rain and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures continue through mid
week, with a chance for showers or a thunderstorm Tuesday.

Low pressure moving toward New England will send a cold front
southward early today. To the east of the Blue Ridge, there are
hints that there may be just enough mid-level moisture/lift as
a weak wave passes to result in a few sprinkles this morning.

The cold front will likely be south of the area by mid-morning,
with main evidence being a wind shift back to the north. Any
showers that develop along the front will likely be south and
east of the forecast area. High level clouds may become thicker
for a time. High temperatures will be fairly similar to Sunday.

Several shortwaves/vorticity maxima will deepen the trough
along the east coast tonight into Tuesday, eventually forming a
closed low somewhere south or southeast of the area Wednesday.
As the sharpening trough axis passes overhead Tuesday, a few
showers or even an isolated thunderstorm may develop. The
highest chances will be over the mountains where there will also
be some orographic lift in the easterly low level flow.
However, there is still considerable spread in guidance
regarding just how much precipitation forms. Many locations will
likely remain dry. A surface low will eventually form off the
Carolina coast, but the position of the closed low and strong
ridging building over the Great Lakes will likely keep any rain
and clouds to the southeast. The coolest temperatures will
likely be Tuesday beneath the trough axis, with values rising
back to around normal on Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures increase leading up to the weekend,
along with rain and thunderstorm chances.

Upper level ridging continues to build over the region Thursday and
Friday, allowing for drier air to persist and temperatures to
gradually increase by the end of the week. Highs could reach the
upper 80s and low 90s by Friday afternoon before an upper level low
centered over southern Canada begins to transition over the Great
Lakes region, with a resultant cold front tracking through the Mid-
Atlantic. This could generate a few rain showers on Saturday, with
more widespread rain and thunderstorm chances materializing on
Sunday as the low begins to track through New England. The severe
outlook for this system has not changed much, with some low-end risk
still being identified in NCAR`s AI Convective forecasts as well as
CSU`s machine learning probabilities; however, not much additional
confidence has been gleaned thus far. Note that the timing of the
front has shifted a bit later into the weekend as of the 18z model
runs, so there is still some uncertainty in frontal timing and
placement. Hotter temperatures will likely persist through the
weekend as humidity levels increase, with overnight lows ranging in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front will turn winds back to the north on Monday,
with speeds in the 8 to 12 kt range, with occasional gusts up
to 15 kts.

Easterly winds may bring some lower clouds Monday night into
early Tuesday, but model probabilities are low at this time. A
spotty shower or thunderstorm could form Tuesday afternoon,
although the greatest chance is over the Appalachians. Winds
pivot back to the north or northeast Tuesday. VFR conditions
are likely Wednesday with continued north or northeast winds.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected across terminals Thursday and
Friday. Beginning Saturday, scattered showers could temporarily
reduce CIGs and VSBYs at terminals, with more widespread showers and
a few thunderstorms possible on Sunday. Light winds generally flow
out of the west during this period.

&&

.MARINE...
A dry cold front will push through early today, turning winds
out of the north once again. For at least a time in the wake of
the front, there may be a few 20-knot gusts. This possibility
has become a bit more likely, so have opted to hoist an SCA this
afternoon. Increasing easterly flow tonight also lead to SCAs
being issued.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, the strength of north or northeast
winds is a bit uncertain. The need for SCAs will likely depend
on the position and strength of an area of low pressure that
will be developing off the Carolina coast.

Winds fall below SCA levels Thursday, with marginal SCA conditions
over wider waters possible Friday evening. Winds generally flow
southerly, with gusts falling below SCA levels over the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms may impact mariners/boaters on both
Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an ongoing coastal flooding threat for all of the
typical sites with the morning high tide cycle. Annapolis is
very likely to hit Minor and could even be close to Moderate.
Elsewhere, the northern Chesapeake Bay could all reach minor
flood stage, but this will depend on how quick the winds shift
back out of the north.

A cold front will lower water levels later this morning into the
afternoon, but they might rise again toward the middle of the
week depending on the position and strength of low pressure
developing off the coast.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ530>532-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ533-541-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ534-
     537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/CJL/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/SRT
MARINE...CJL/SRT