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Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Fort Myer VA
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Fort Myer VA
Issued by: National Weather Service Baltimore, MD/Washington, D.C. |
| Updated: 4:53 pm EDT Jul 3, 2026 |
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Tonight
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Clear
|
Independence
Day
Sunny then
Chance
T-storms
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Saturday
Night
Chance
T-storms
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Sunday
Mostly Sunny
then Showers
Likely
|
Sunday
Night
Showers
Likely
|
Monday
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Showers
|
Monday
Night
Showers
|
Tuesday
Slight Chance
Showers then
Chance
T-storms
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Tuesday
Night
Chance
T-storms then
Chance
Showers
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| Lo 80 °F |
Hi 102 °F |
Lo 75 °F |
Hi 95 °F |
Lo 72 °F |
Hi 87 °F |
Lo 72 °F |
Hi 87 °F |
Lo 71 °F |
|
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Extreme Heat Warning
Extreme Heat Warning
Air Quality Alert
Tonight
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 80. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Independence Day
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 102. Heat index values as high as 110. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Saturday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind around 6 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
Sunday
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 105. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Sunday Night
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. East wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
Monday
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A slight chance of showers before 11am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 87. Chance of precipitation is 80%. |
Monday Night
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Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 80%. |
Tuesday
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A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Tuesday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Wednesday
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A chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Wednesday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Thursday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Thursday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Friday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Fort Myer VA.
|
Weather Forecast Discussion
718
FXUS61 KLWX 031835
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continuing to fine tune heat headlines and storm chances based
on latest guidance and observations. Flash flood threat Sunday
into Monday is increasing.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Extreme heat and humidity continues through the
Independence Day holiday weekend with some relief early next
week.
- 2) An increased risk for severe thunderstorms through the
Independence Day holiday weekend.
- 3) Increasing concern for the threat of flash flooding both
Sunday and Monday afternoon/evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Extreme heat and humidity continue through the
Independence Day holiday weekend with some relief early next
week.
Record temperatures will continue through much of the upcoming
Independence Day holiday weekend. An upper ridge remains parked
across a vast portion of the southeastern U.S. into the
Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and Mid-Atlantic region. Lower
tropospheric temperatures remain very anomalous and record
breaking in nature.
Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect through this evening, and
again Saturday afternoon and evening due to a combination of
near record high temperatures and elevated humidity levels.
Winds remain on the lighter side under this expansive dome of
high pressure. Skies should stay mostly sunny with any
convective threats likely holding off until the evening (see Key
Message 2 for more information). Otherwise, it is a literal
wash, rinse, and repeat setup heading into Saturday/Independence
Day.
This does offer a bit of transition in the overall pattern as
mid-level heights slowly decrease. These subtle height falls
will make for a slightly more challenging temperature forecast
as convection becomes more active during the core heating
hours. How much convection and cloud cover overspread the region
could hinder some of the diurnal heating. At this point, the
guidance keeps humidity levels plenty high to support additional
heat products. Extreme Heat Warnings are in place from 10 AM
until 9 PM for areas east of the Blue Ridge. Heat indices again
reach the 110 degree mark, slightly higher toward the urban
areas and along the Chesapeake Bay. For the Shenandoah Valley,
it will be another day of Heat Advisories as heat indices rise
to around 100 to 103 degrees. Overall, additional daily
temperature records could be broken through Saturday (see the
Climate section near the bottom of this discussion).
Temperatures drop off a bit into Sunday as convection becomes a
larger part of the equation. However, even with forecast highs
now in the low/mid 90s, elevated dew points could yield
additional heat headlines (i.e., Heat Advisories) on Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...An increased risk for severe thunderstorms
through the Independence Day holiday weekend.
The Storm Prediction Center outlooks through late Sunday paint
the picture of an active convective pattern ahead. A Slight Risk
for severe thunderstorms is being advertised across portions of
the area during this period.
Most of the local area (Mid-Atlantic) should remain capped under
upper ridging with forcing displaced to the north. However, any
storms that develop to the north may make a run at the I-68/I-70
corridor this evening. Some guidance also attempts to develop an
isolated thunderstorm or two along the bay breeze or near the
Blue Ridge Mountains.
As the upper ridge begins to undergo some weakening, the threat
of strong to severe thunderstorms will increase through the
holiday weekend. While the guidance shows deep-layered
westerlies on Saturday, the flow is on the weaker side which
would limit the negative influence of this flow on convective
development. The likely triggers for diurnal convection will be
around mesoscale boundaries like the lee-side trough, as well as
bay and river breezes. Multiple days of intense heat and
humidity yields somewhat extreme levels of instability (i.e.,
mixed layer CAPEs around 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg in some models).
With downdraft CAPE values nearing 1,500 J/kg, significant wind
damage is not out of the question with more potent updrafts.
While difficult to hone in on timing, multiple rounds cannot be
ruled given the degree of instability in the atmosphere. A
Slight Risk for severe convection remains across the entire
region.
The updated Day 3/Sunday outlook also brings another Slight Risk
day to the local area. A series of weak to modest perturbations
in the flow will work in tandem with an approaching nearby
frontal system. The position of remnant outflows, degree of
convective debris, and additional development are all questions
looming for Sunday`s forecast. Despite the uncertainty, the
parameters remain favorable for further thunderstorm activity.
Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
Tuesday, although the speed at which this weekend`s trough
tracks south will be critical for these continued chances to
materialize. ML guidance shows an upwards chance in thunderstorm
& severe potential for Monday, with NCAR`s Medium-Range AI NWP
guidance showing a 30%-45% probability in the 00z guidance for
Monday afternoon/evening. Synoptic setup in the days beforehand
will be critical in understanding the nature & scope of
thunderstorms during this period.
Temperatures look to potentially drop as this cold front tracks to
the south by early Tuesday, although dewpoints will remain elevated
for now resulting in continued humid conditions. Nevertheless, heat
indices look to potentially dip back into double digits by Tuesday
afternoon in the metros. High pressure moves over the region
midweek.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Increasing concern for the threat of flash
flooding through Monday.
Outside of the severe potential over the next few days, which
is mentioned in detail above, there is growing concern for a
flash flood threat.
For Independence Day, the threat is much lower, but still not
zero. An extremely moist air mass will be in place over the
region, so storms will produce prolific rainfall rates for
those that do get them. However, as mentioned above, there is a
big concern for damaging downbursts, which should actually
mitigate the flash flood threat by keeping storms moving.
Urban/poor drainage areas will have an isolated flash flood
threat, but it will be very situational, hence the marginal risk
for excessive rainfall from WPC over the area. Outside of the
metro areas, most locations are still very dry due to the
ongoing drought, so the flash flood threat is much lower.
By Sunday, things start to get a little more concerning, but
especially by Monday. As the upper-level ridge continues to
buckle, a trough over the Great Lakes will form with a cold
front tracking through the region by Monday. Storms on Sunday
are likely to trigger ahead of this front and along existing
outflow boundaries from Saturday, terrain circulations, and
Bay/River breezes. Storms should generally be progressive, but
the threat for training increases if any of these existing
boundaries line up parallel to the mean flow. A lot of
uncertainty with this, as we have to see how Saturday`s event
unfolds first and see what boundaries are left behind in its
wake. By Monday though, the slow-moving frontal boundary drops
into our region. This front will be very wavy in nature, but
some portion seems likely to line up with the mean low-mid level
flow, which is out of the WSW. Training convection is much more
likely Monday afternoon. Additionally, several days of
convection before Monday could reduce the flash-flood
guidance, with some areas becoming more susceptible. Either way,
the urban areas are the greatest area of concern, as model
guidance wants to hang this front up somewhere nearby. With
PWATs in excess of 2", skinny CAPE profiles, a deep warm cloud
layer, and boundary-parallel low-mid level flow, a lot of
ingredients are there for a more widespread flash flooding
threat.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Have maintained VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24
to 30 hours which runs out through Saturday afternoon. Winds
remain on the light side and meander between west-northwesterly
before shifting to southwesterly. There is still a non-zero
chance evening convection approaches the Mason-Dixon Line from
the north. If probabilities increase, a PROB30 group could be
introduced especially at the Baltimore terminals.
Restrictions driven by thunderstorm activity become more likely
over the holiday weekend. While difficult to hone in on exact
timing, the afternoon/evening hours could yield fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could
become severe in nature. Overall winds start off out of the west
before turning more southeasterly later in the weekend.
Periodic sub-VFR conditions remain possible through Monday and
into Tuesday as shower and thunderstorm chances remain possible
Monday afternoon & evening. Some of these storms could become
severe resulting in erratic changes in wind speed and
directions, potentially exceeding 50 knots. Frequent lightning
is also possible with any storms that form.
&&
.MARINE...
In response to expansive high pressure over the region, winds
remain light and well below any hazard thresholds. The weaker
flow will yield a series of wind shifts as this ridge
reconfigures in time. The bigger issue will be related to
convection impacting the waterways. While chances are low, a few
storms could approach the northern-most waters later this
evening/night. Otherwise, an active weather weekend lies ahead
for those out and about for the Independence Day holiday.
Special Marine Warnings may be needed at times, particularly
during the afternoon/evening hours this weekend. Before going
out on the waters, ensure to check the forecast and have
multiple ways of receiving hazardous weather information.
Wind gusts stay below SCA thresholds through Monday afternoon. Winds
could potentially approach SCA thresholds Monday evening before
diminishing again Tuesday. Showers & thunderstorms remain possible
over the waters for Monday afternoon & evening, potentially causing
erratic winds, lightning, and storm-associated wind gusts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
There is a Significant Heat Risk through at least Saturday
(Independence Day). The numbers below aren`t a forecast, but
rather a reference for historical context for comparison. Latest
forecast: weather.gov/lwx. A number of daily records have been
broken at the local airports the past couple of days (July 1-2).
==================================================================
*** ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS ***
==================================================================
Baltimore 107 (set on Jul 10, 1936)
Washington 106 (set on Jul 20, 1930 + Aug 06, 1918)
Sterling-Dulles Airport 105 (set on Jul 22, 2011)
Baltimore Downtown 108 (set on Jul 07, 2012 + Jul 22, 2011)
Annapolis 106 (set on Aug 06, 1918)
Hagerstown 105 (set on Jul 14, 1954)
Martinsburg 112 (set on Jul 11, 1936)
Charlottesville 107 (set on Sep 07, 1954 + 3 other times)
==================================================================
*** ALL-TIME RECORD WARM LOWS ***
==================================================================
Baltimore 83 (set on Aug 05, 1930 + 2 other times)
Washington 84 (set on Jul 24, 2011 + 2 other times)
Sterling-Dulles Airport 79 (set on Aug 08, 2007)
Baltimore Downtown 88 (set on Jul 22, 2011 and Jul 10, 1993)
Annapolis 92 (set on Jul 07, 1994)
Hagerstown 86 (set on Jun 15, 1899)
Martinsburg 86 (set on Jul 21, 1930)
Charlottesville 85 (set on Aug 07, 1918)
==================================================================
*** JULY MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS ***
==================================================================
Baltimore 107 (set on Jul 10, 1936)
Washington 106 (set on Jul 20, 1930)
Sterling-Dulles Airport 105 (set on Jul 22, 2011)
Baltimore Downtown 108 (set on Jul 07, 2012 + Jul 22, 2011)
Annapolis 105 (set on Jul 21, 1930 + Jul 02, 1901)
Hagerstown 105 (set on Jul 14, 1954)
Martinsburg 112 (set on Jul 11, 1936)
Charlottesville 107 (set on Jul 10, 1936 + Jul 20, 1930)
==================================================================
*** JULY MONTHLY RECORD WARM LOWS ***
==================================================================
Baltimore 83 (set on Jul 21, 1930)
Washington 84 (set on Jul 24, 2011 + 2 other times)
Sterling-Dulles Airport 78 (set on Jul 24, 2010 + Jul 08, 2010)
Baltimore Downtown 88 (set on Jul 22, 2011 + Jul 10, 1993)
Annapolis 92 (set on Jul 07, 1994)
Hagerstown 83 (set on Jul 24, 2010)
Martinsburg 86 (set on Jul 21, 1930)
Charlottesville 84 (set on Jul 22, 1930)
==================================================================
*** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS ***
VALID: Jul 03
==================================================================
Baltimore 104 (1898) | 80 (1898)
Washington 101 (1966 + 2) | 80 (2018)
Sterling-Dulles Airport 103 (1966) | 73 (2018 + 2)
Baltimore Downtown 102 (1997) | 82 (2018 + 1983)
Annapolis 100 (1901) | 84 (1896)
Hagerstown 102 (1966) | 76 (2002)
Martinsburg 102 (1941 + 1911) | 74 (1980)
Charlottesville 100 (1966 + 1954) | 79 (1911)
==================================================================
*** DAILY RECORD HIGHS | WARM LOWS ***
VALID: Jul 04
==================================================================
Baltimore 100 (2002 + 2) | 78 (1911)
Washington 100 (1919) | 80 (2018 + 2002)
Sterling-Dulles Airport 97 (2002 + 1999) | 75 (2018)
Baltimore Downtown 101 (2002 + 1990) | 83 (2002)
Annapolis 98 (1999) | 81 (2018)
Hagerstown 100 (1966 + 1919) | 76 (2018)
Martinsburg 103 (1898) | 76 (1999)
Charlottesville 100 (2012) | 78 (1919)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Number of Consecutive Days Max Temp >=100
Area (obs site) Records since
------------------------------------------------------------------
Baltimore (BWI) 4 days July 14-17,2024 & July 19-22,1930
Washington (DCA) 4 days July 14-17, 2024 & July 5-8, 2012
Sterling-Dulles (IAD) 2 days July 7-8, 2012, July 21-22, 2011
July 6-7, 2010, July 16-17, 1997
Baltimore Downtown (DMH) 5 days July 3-7, 2010 & July 7-11, 1993
Annapolis (NAK) 1 day July 21, 2019, July 7, 2012,
July 22, 2011, June 29, 1959
Hagerstown (HGR) 3 days July 5-7, 2010
Martinsburg (MRB) 6 days June 1-6, 1925
Charlottesville (CHO) 5 days July 4-8, 2012
Period of Record (POR) context...
Area (obs site) Records since
------------------------------------------------------------------
Baltimore (BWI) Jan 1872
Washington (DCA) Jul 1872
Sterling-Dulles Airport (IAD) Jan 1960
Baltimore Downtown (DMH) Jul 1950
Annapolis (NAK) Jan 1894
Hagerstown (HGR) Jan 1899
Martinsburg (MRB) Jan 1891
Charlottesville (CHO) Jan 1893
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday for
DCZ001.
MD...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for
MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday for
MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ003-
502.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ003-502.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for
VAZ036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday for
VAZ036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
VAZ027>031.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ025>031-
504.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ025-026-503-
504-507-508.
WV...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
WVZ050>053-055-502-504.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ050>053-
055-502-504-506.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ501-503-505-
506.
MARINE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530.
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday for
ANZ530.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRO/DHOF/CJL/SRT
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/CJL/SRT
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/CJL/SRT
CLIMATE...DHOF
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