Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

662
FXUS61 KLWX 221904
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
304 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 375 was issued and remains in
effect until 9PM for the entire forecast area with the exception
of Garrett County, Maryland.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms along with locally heavy
 rainfall possible this afternoon into early this evening.

- 2) A strong cold front brings back rain and thunderstorm
  chances for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms along with
locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon into early this
evening.

A strong low pressure system is forecast to track just north of
the forecast area through this evening with the associated warm
front already lifted north through the area. Showers and
thunderstorms are currently tracking eastward from the
Alleghenies towards the metros with strong to severe
thunderstorms forecast for this evening. In the wake of the
warm front, there is plenty of instability which combined with
strong flow aloft yields conditions favorable for scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms. Primary hazard is damaging wind
gusts with storms capable of producing 60mph wind gusts.
Additionally, a brief tornado is possible mainly NE of DC.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number remains in effect until 9PM for
the entire area with the exception of Garrett County where the
warm front had not lifted through yet.

In addition to the severe thunderstorm threat, any storms will
be efficient rainfall producers are PWATs near 2". Storm motion
is expected to be progressive enough to limit widespread
flooding concern, although sensitive areas with poor drainage
and/or urban areas may experience flash flooding.

Showers and thunderstorms continue moving east across the area
through this evening with convection dwindling around 9PM. Rain
showers continue through midnight with low clouds and fog
expected overnight. The cold front associated with the
aforementioned low pressure system pushes across the forecast
area early Tuesday morning with a surface low forecast to
develop along the front overnight. This will yield rain showers
and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday. Conditions dry out in the
afternoon as high pressure builds over the region through
Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings back rain and
thunderstorm chances for this upcoming weekend.

A strong upper-level trough forms over the Upper Midwest before
transitioning over the Great Lakes later this Wednesday through
Friday, with a stemming cold front tracking through the Mid-Atlantic
by the start of the weekend. Southeast winds help to provide
moisture as this front moves through, increasing humidity as
well as chances for showers and thunderstorms late in the week.

Exact timing of the front remains uncertain at this time,
with current ensembles showing a range of possible times
through the weekend where storms could form along the front.
Damaging wind gusts remain the primary hazard with any storms,
but additional impacts remain uncertain at this time. Otherwise,
expect conditions to remain hot & humid before and after the
frontal boundary moves through, with temperatures nominally
decreasing after the front passes but quickly increasing to
mid-90s with dewpoints approaching 70 by next Monday. Upper
level ridging moves into the region early next week, reducing
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flight restrictions are expected across all terminals through
this evening as showers and thunderstorms track across the
forecast area. Southerly winds gust up to 25 knots this
afternoon outside of storms. Within storms, damaging wind gusts
and heavy rain are expected within the stronger storms, leading
to reduced visibility and ceilings. After the main line of
storms move through this evening, rain showers continue with
prevailing low ceilings and reduced visibilities expected after
midnight.

Rain showers return early tomorrow morning with IFR to MVFR
ceilings and visibilities expected. Conditions return to VFR
Tuesday afternoon and remain VFR through Wednesday as surface
high pressure builds over the forecast area.

A strong cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms could bring
reduced conditions across the area on Friday and Saturday. Winds
flow out of the southwest on Friday before shifting northwesterly by
Saturday night. Conditions gradually improve by Sunday as the front
transitions offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
SMWs are likely across the waters this afternoon and into the
evening as strong to severe storms track across the waters.
Outside of storms, SCA criteria winds continue through this
evening. Winds diminish overnight with additional SCAs in effect
for Tuesday afternoon. High pressure builds overhead on
Wednesday with winds forecast to stay below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

Winds diminish below SCA thresholds by late Friday morning and
remain so through the weekend. Southerly winds shift westerly late
Saturday evening, with showers and thunderstorms possible over the
waters Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     537-538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ530>534-537>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>534-
     539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/SRT
MARINE...AVS/SRT