Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

245
FXUS61 KLWX 231412
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1012 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes have been made to the forecast this morning.
Only minor changes were made to the wind and RH forecasts for
today and tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm temperatures today and Friday with afternoon and
evening showers and a thunderstorm.

 2) Cooler temperatures this weekend with increased shower chances
as as a wavering front and weak area of low pressure push
through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm temperatures today and Friday with
afternoon and evening showers and a thunderstorm.

A stalled boundary nearby through the end of the week will
gradually oscillate over western and north- central MD today
into Friday before settling south toward the Potomac River and
northern VA for the weekend. Warmer than average temperatures
will be accompanied by diurnal convection in the form of
isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in spots
each day. Most locations will remain dry with the highest
confidence for showers and t-storms tied to the terrain and
locations directly along the boundary. The severe threat remains
low although gusty winds cannot be ruled out with storms,
especially Friday given the added shear/instability around the
waffling front. Areas that do see showers and thunderstorms
could see rain amounts of a tenth to a quarter of an inch.

Look for highs in the low 80s over central VA, southern MD, and the
downslope areas of the Allegheny Mountains. Locations further
north into central and northeast MD, the western shore of the
Bay, and Catoctins will likely see highs in the 70s on both
today and Friday. Overnight lows will fall back into the 50s
with upper over northeast MD.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures this weekend with increase
shower chances as as a wavering front and weak area of low
pressure push through.

Widespread rain showers expected Saturday as a weakening disturbance
and cold front move in. Precip amounts have trended high especially
within the EPS members compared to the GEFS/GEPS. Will continue to
monitor.

There`s still some uncertainty with respect to the ultimate
positioning of the front, and as a result, there`s still a wide
range of potential temps. Locations on the warm side of the boundary
may approach 70, while locations on the cool side will likely be
stuck in the 40s and 50s. Chances for cooler conditions will be
greater off to the north and east (central and northeast MD),
while chances for warmer temps will increase toward the
southwest (central VA). Chances for showers decrease further on
Monday, with temps expected to fall near seasonable levels
(highs in the upper 60s to low 70s). Another round of rain
possible Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions continue today and Friday. A brief period of MVFR
conditions possible at CHO, MRB today, and then any of the
terminals on Friday with isolated to scattered showers and
embedded thunder. The main threat with storms would be locally
gusty winds up to 35 kts, especially Friday afternoon given the
warm front lifting back through. Winds will switch back to the
northwest today at 5 to 15 kts. Winds turn to the east and
southeast Friday and Saturday bisecting the corridor based upon
the placement of the stalled frontal boundary. Speeds will
remain less than 15 kts.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely Saturday with easterly onshore flow.
Scattered to numerous shower can be expected given the stalled front
nearby. Similar conditions are expected Sunday before VFR conditions
return early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds are expected today and Friday. Winds will
become northwest today and then east to northeast Friday into
the weekend. A few isolated/scattered showers and t-storms may
cross the waters today and Friday afternoons. More scattered to
numerous showers are expected this weekend with onshore
easterly flow. SCAs may be needed for portions of the waters in
onshore flow on both Saturday and Sunday. Sub-SCA level winds
return early next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/KJP/CPB/EST
AVIATION...KLW/CPB/EST
MARINE...KLW/CPB/EST