Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

685
FXUS61 KLWX 150758
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
258 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Made some changes to decrease RH late Tuesday going into Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Also, wrote a new fire weather discussion
as well.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Colder than normal through Monday with gradually
  diminishing winds and clouds.

- 2) Dry conditions persist through the upcoming week with
  increasing temperatures starting Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Colder than normal through Monday with gradually
diminishing winds and clouds.

Regional composite reflectivity still depicts shower activity
well off to the northwest. Latest runs of the HRRR still depict
that some of this activity makes it into the typical upslope
areas out west later this morning and intermittently throughout
the day today. Little to no measurable precipitation is
expected for the majority of the area, but a dusting of snow is
possible for west-facing slopes above 1900 feet along and west
of the Allegheny Front, with spotty 1 to 2 inch amounts possible
above about 2700 feet if some of the heavier streamers make it
this far south. An SPS may be needed at a future time, but will
wait to see something a bit more organized before going that
route.

Of note, the 14/12Z REFS had a few members with several
hundredths of an inch of QPF from a streamer over the eastern WV
panhandle, north-central MD and into extreme northern VA tonight
through Sunday. The 00z REFS did come down a bit with this
activity, but there is still some hint that there could be some
carryover between the Allegheny mountains and the Blue Ridge
perhaps. Forecast soundings depict steep low-level lapse
rates and moisture at 3-5 kft, which will lead to waves of
stratocumulus along with the potential for some sprinkles or
flurries throughout the afternoon. This would likely be in the
form of rain for most, but can`t totally discount the idea of a
steadier shower (or perhaps a light dusting of snow above about
700-800 feet) through Sunday evening. Kept sprinkles/flurries in
the forecast for now to depict this threat, as the
probabilities still weren`t high enough to go with slight chance
POPs at this time.

Wind gusts will gradually subside through Monday, but remain
somewhat elevated today (albeit less than previous days). Gusts
will be slower to subside at higher elevations (especially at
night compared to the lower elevations). Clouds will also
gradually thin and scatter out during this period.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions persist through the upcoming
week with increasing temperatures starting Tuesday.

Winds continue to diminish on Tuesday and remain light through
the end of the week as high pressure transitions overhead in the
wake of the front. As upper-level ridging continues to build
over several days, dry conditions are expected to persist
through the end of the forecast period with mostly clear skies
overhead and progressively warming temperatures as the week goes
on. Afternoon highs could begin to approach the upper 60s
between Thursday and Friday, well above seasonable normals, with
overnight lows generally in the 40s. No precipitation is
currently anticipated Tuesday through Friday.

Looking ahead to the end of next week, an upper-level trough
could develop over the Great Lakes and produce a stemming cold
front in the days following; will continue to monitor this
pattern for any precipitation potential over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Other than a spotty flurry or sprinkle today, it will be dry for
all terminals through early next week. Wind gusts to around 20
knots are anticipated today, and some 10-15 knot gusts may even
linger into tonight. By Monday, winds taper off a little bit
more, before becoming much lighter by Monday night.

NW winds stay below 10 knots Tuesday through Thursday as high
pressure remains overhead. VFR conditions are anticipated across
terminals through this period, with mostly clear skies persisting
through the midweek. Winds shift southwesterly on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
North to northwest winds remain elevated today across all
waters, with gusts around 20 to 25 knots expected. SCAs remain
in effect through this evening for all waters, and have been
extended overnight in southern portions of the waters. Winds
will taper off into Monday, but SCAs may still need to be
extended at least for a portion of the day before that occurs.
Confidence wasn`t quite high enough at this point for that
however, so that would come at a later time.

Winds stay below SCA thresholds Monday night through Thursday,
shifting from northwesterly to southwesterly by Wednesday. No
precipitation is anticipated during this period as high pressure
remains overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Remaining brisk today as cool high pressure builds towards the
region and a departing low remains well to our northeast. Aside
from some intermittent mountain snow showers along and west of the
Allegheny Front, dry conditions are expected for most. Brisk
winds will continue through Monday with waves of clouds, but the
magnitude will be less than recent days.

High pressure gradually builds overhead into the middle of next
week, then temperatures will begin to warm mid to late next week.
During this timeframe, while RH winds will diminish, RH values
will go down substantially. The dry air really builds in starting
Tuesday into Tuesday night, and looks to continue for several days
thereafter. Overnight recoveries, especially on the ridges, will
likely be poor as well starting Tuesday night. Expect afternoon RH
values to even drop well into the 20s each day. This will also be
paired with seasonably warm temperatures, so this will really act
to dry out already very dry fuels.

Not helping matters is that there is no precipitation expected
east of the Appalachians through at least the end of next week.
Given the setup over the next week, will really be watching for
any potential dry frontal passages in the long range as the next
days to really watch out for.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/SRT
MARINE...CJL/SRT