Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

582
FXUS61 KLWX 090903
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
403 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift towards the region today before being
overtaken by a fast-moving cold front tonight. The cold front stalls
over the region Saturday, with a developing low moving along it
through the area during the same time. A pair of cold fronts will
push through Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure builds to the
south of the region early next week. Another frontal system
approaches from the west towards the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A potent shortwave and associated deep area of low pressure will
lift northeastward from the vicinity of Lake Michigan toward
Ontario and Quebec by day`s end. As this occurs, a push of warm
advection will occur locally within southerly low-level flow.
Clouds will be on the increase through the morning within the
warm advection regime, and showers will be possible through the
afternoon and evening hours. The temperature forecast today is
a challenging one. Most guidance suggests that temperatures will
make it into the upper 50s to near 60 areawide, but a few CAMs
suggest that temperatures may struggle to make it out of the 40s
for some locations to the east of the Blue Ridge beneath thick
low cloud cover that is modeled to develop during the late
morning hours.

The aforementioned system`s cold front will move through the
area later this evening into the early overnight hours. Winds
will shift to out of the north behind this front, which will
allow slightly cooler and drier air to briefly filter in from
the north. This boundary will ultimately stall out just to our
south as it loses upper air support. After a brief lull,
overrunning precipitation will likely ensue again late tonight
as warm advection starts to occur atop the boundary in advance
of the next system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A positively tilted trough will remain oriented from the Desert
Southwest toward the Great Lakes on Saturday, placing us within
southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a mid-level low will
deepen as it drops southeastward across the Western Great Lakes.
An attendant surface low will form in response over Lower
Michigan. A strong low-level jet will develop downstream of
this system to the east of the Appalachians. This strong low-
level jet will overrun the stalled out boundary located just to
our south, leading to a prolonged soaking rainfall through much
of the day Saturday. This rainfall will be largely beneficial
given ongoing drought conditions, with most locations receiving
around to just under an inch. The steady rainfall will also help
to reinforce the cold air wedge in place. Most locations will
struggle to climb through the 40s, and some freezing rain may
even be possible around onset in extreme western Allegany and
extreme eastern Garrett Counties.

A weak area of low pressure is expected to develop along the
stalled frontal boundary to our south and track northeastward
along the boundary. Locations to the south of the boundary will
be much warmer, with temperatures likely making it well into the
60s. This warmer air will likely remain confined just off to
our south, but depending on the exact track of the system it
could make it into Nelson or St. Mary`s Counties. If this
scenario were to play out, a stronger storm could even be
possible there Saturday evening.

The system`s cold front is expected to move through Saturday
night, with conditions turning windy and much cooler behind the
front for Sunday. Highs on Sunday are forecast to be in the 40s,
with 20s and 30s in the mountains. It will feel much cooler than
that, with northwesterly winds gusting to around 30-40 mph.
Predominantly dry conditions are expected as the system`s upper
trough axis moves through, with the exception of upslope snow
showers in the mountains. Winds in the mountains could also
approach Wind Advisory levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid-level height falls behind a cold front on Monday will lead to
cooler temperatures. Breezy conditions continue, but should be
tapering off as the pressure gradient weakens over the region. This
will be followed by a period of height rises Tue/Wed as quasi-zonal
flow briefly returns to the region. Dry conditions are expected to
prevail throughout the entire first half of next week at lest.
Temperatures will warm a bit each day Tue/Wed into the 40s and then
the low 50s.

By Thursday, a shift in the upper-level pattern is on the horizon.
There are many feature at play though, so details are still very
murky. Broadly speaking though, the polar jet becomes very active in
our region, with a potent upper trough swinging through the region.
Meanwhile, there may also be a piece of upper-level energy moving
towards the southeast CONUS out of northern Mexico. The interaction
of these two pieces of energy could have a wide range of impacts
over a very broad area. But in general, it is something to watch
towards the end of next week as the next chance for any substantial
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Conditions are VFR at the terminals early this morning. Ceilings
are expected to lower late this morning into early this
afternoon, with IFR ceilings possible at times, especially to
the east of the Blue Ridge. Showers and LLWS will also be
possible during the late afternoon and evening in advance of a
cold front approaching the region. This front will move through
during the overnight hours, causing ceilings to return back to
VFR and winds to shift to out of the north.

IFR to sub-IFR ceilings appear likely again on Saturday along
with a soaking rain as a warm front lifts northward toward the
area. A cold front will move through Saturday evening, leading
to a return to VFR conditions and a shift to northwesterly
winds. VFR conditions and gusty northwesterly winds are expected
on Sunday. Gusts may reach in excess of 30 knots at times.

VFR conditions are expected through Monday and Tuesday. Winds remain
somewhat elevated out of the NW on Monday, with gusts up to 20
knots. Winds taper off quickly Monday night into Tuesday as high
pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds are expected over the waters today. Gusts may
near low-end SCA levels, but the current expectation is that
warmer air moving over cooler waters will limit the strength of
gusts. The Upper Tidal Potomac and immediate shoreline of the
Bay would likely stand the greatest chance of having a few low-
end SCA gusts, if they were to occur at all. A cold front will
move over the waters tonight, causing winds to shift to out of
the north. Winds will then turn to out of the northeast and
eventually east on Saturday while remaining sub-SCA level in
magnitude. An area of low pressure will track along a stalled
front just to our south. If this system were to trend a bit
further north, SCA gusts could be possible over the southernmost
waters (Smith Point to Tangier Sound) later Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening. For now, winds are expected to remain
sub-SCA level over all waters.

Winds will turn out of the northwest as a cold front crosses
over the waters Saturday night, and continue out of the
northwest through the day Sunday. At least high-end SCA gusts
appear likely during that time, with Gale gusts possible at
times.

SCA conditions remain possible again on Monday, with gusty NW winds
around 20 knots. Winds taper off quickly Monday night into Tuesday,
with no marine hazards expected during that time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...CJL/KJP
MARINE...CJL/KJP