Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

059
FXUS61 KLWX 140645
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
245 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains on track today. Still quite a bit of
uncertainty with storm evolution this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Severe thunderstorms return today.

- 2) A return to warm and humid conditions and the potential for
  strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe thunderstorms return Sunday.

A sw will rotate around the base of an UL trof today. Ahead of
the wave, southerly flow will usher in anomalous moisture with
PWs nearing 2" and TDs near 70F. The sw will bring height falls
aloft near peak heating and overlap with increasing wind shear.
The combination of increasing instability, shear, and large
scale forcing for ascent ahead of the shortwave and an
approaching cold front will lead to the development of
widespread thunderstorms during the afternoon, some of which
could be severe.

There`s still a fair amount of spread in guidance with respect
to the timing and exact placement of the storms, but as of now
the threat looks to be greatest to the east of the Blue Ridge. General
consensus is for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to form
across the area during the early to mid-afternoon hours as large
scale lift associated with the approaching sw increases. CAMs
suggest that the convective mode may remain primarily cellular,
which seems plausible given deep layer shear vectors are w-sw,
and have a significant component oriented perpendicular to any
prefrontal trough that may assist in initiation. With the
cellular mode, the areal coverage of storms may end up being a
bit lower than preceding days, which featured considerable
upscale growth into linear structures. The background
environment will be characterized by around 1000-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and around 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear, so
supercells may be possible. Model soundings indicate steep low
level lapse rates (especially for the Mid-Atlantic) which will
result in higher DCAPE values and therefore stronger wind gusts.
Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat tomorrow, with
gusts of 60-70 mph possible in stronger storms. Very warm
surface temps and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the
hail threat somewhat, but an isolated instance or two can`t be
ruled out, given the possibility for supercells. The tornado
threat also appears to be very low, but non-zero, given
predominantly straight hodographs with minimal low-level shear.
SPC currently has the entire forecast area outlooked in a Slight
Risk, with damaging winds being the primary threat.

In addition to any storms that develop in the open warm sector
during the afternoon, additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form along the system`s cold front in the Ohio
Valley this afternoon. These storms will then track
southeastward into the fa during the evening hours. The trend
over time should be for these storms to weaken as they encounter
a stabilizing boundary layer, but a low-end threat for a
thunderstorm or two will continue after dark until the system`s
cold front clears the area later in the night.

The main threats with storms will damaging winds, large hail,
locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. SPC has
maintained a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight Risk) with 30% wind probs
(higher end slight risk). There was some discussion of
upgrading to Enhanced, but some uncertainty remains in terms of
coverage of storms. Will monitor trends this morning and
coordinate with SPC on any potential upgrade.

WPC has a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal ERO) for the metros, but
progressive nature and prevailing drought look to limit the
overall flood threat.

Much cooler, drier, and less humid conditions are forecast for
Mon/Tue. Mostly sunny skies are expected with high temps in the
upper 70s to around 80, dewpoints in the upper 40s to 50s, and
a NW breeze.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A return to warm and humid conditions and the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday.

After trending somewhat drier at the start of the week, upper level
moisture starts to move into the region on Wed, along with a
trend upwards in temp as hotter & more humid conditions begin to
take over. A stray shower or thunderstorm could develop later
in the day Tuesday through early Wed, mainly east of the Blue
Ridge, as a weak warm front slides northward from the Carolinas
into VA.

Beginning Thu, a strong surface low will push east past the
Great Lakes with a stemming cold front that will push across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This cold front could result in
multiple showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, with
some becoming severe. There is already a 30%-45% severe
prob noted in NCAR`s AI model, and a 15%-30% severe prob noted
in CSU`s ML model. Timing and exact hazards are still the
primary uncertainties being 5 days out, but early markers are
 showing an early widespread severe risk with this system.

This front will track towards the south by Fri, which could
result in a few lingering showers across the southern portions
of the region and along the central Chesapeake Bay. High
pressure moves into the region on Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S`ly winds and VFR conditions are expected through this
afternoon. S`ly winds increase this afternoon, and may gust to
around 20-25 knots. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the area this afternoon/evening. Confidence is currently low on
timing at individual locations, so have maintained PROB30s.
TEMPOs or prevailing groups will likely be needed as we move
closer in time and confidence increases with respect to exact
timing. The threat for thunderstorms will gradually wind down
through the evening. Winds will shift to out of the NW behind a
cold front tonight. Gusts to around 20-25 knots may be possible
at times later tonight within NW`ly flow. VFR conditions and
lighter NW winds are expected on Mon.

VFR conditions mainly expected Tue through Wed night.  Winds
light becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots Tue. Winds south 5 to 10
knots Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
S`ly winds are expected over the waters today. SCAs are in
effect for all waters through this evening for all waters, and
tonight for southern waters. Thunderstorms will likely impact
the waters this afternoon/evening, with SMWs likely being
needed. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but a stray
waterspout or instance of large hail can`t be ruled out. A cold
front will move over the waters tonight, shifting winds around
to out of the NW. Winds will remain out of the northwest on
Mon, but are expected to drop below SCA levels by mid- morning.

No marine hazards expected Tue through Wed night. Winds light
becoming SE 5 to 10 knots Tue. Winds south 5 to 10 knots Wed.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Monday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ535-536-538-542.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJP/CPB
AVIATION...CPB
MARINE...CPB