Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

115
FXUS61 KLWX 071853
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
253 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast since mid-morning. A Special Weather
Statement for an Elevated Fire Danger threat remains in effect,
as well as the Freeze Warning tonight and Freeze Watch Wednesday
night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Special Weather Statement for Elevated Fire Danger threat
  remains in effect through 7pm this evening.

- 2) Freeze Warnings remain in effect for the majority of the
  area tonight into early Wednesday. Freeze Watches remain in
  effect Wednesday night.

- 3) Temperatures will trend above normal the end of this week
  and early next week despite a mainly dry frontal passage on
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Special Weather Statement for Elevated Fire
Danger threat remains in effect through 7pm this evening.

The fire threat still remains elevated for another 4 hours or
so, but should lessen and then end through the course of the
evening into the overnight. Gusty northwest winds, mostly sunny
skies, and dry air are the culprits to this. We expect the
threat to end shortly after 7pm this evening as winds will
diminish and humidity rises above criteria for most areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Freeze Warnings remain in effect for the majority
of the area tonight into early Wednesday. Freeze Watches remain
in effect Wednesday night.

Gusty northwest winds will diminish late this afternoon as high
pressure builds overhead this evening before moving to the
east overnight and during the day Wednesday. These diminished
winds, clear skies, and dry air will result in good radiational
cooling overnight into early Wednesday. A Freeze Warning remains
in effect overnight into early Wednesday for a large portion of
our region, primarily west of I-95 and east of the Appalachians.
Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 20s to the west of
I-95, with lower 30s further east. St. Mary`s Counties. No frost
is expected tonight with winds staying up through the night.

High pressure will build to the east and northeast Wednesday,
and then offshore Wednesday night. A surface ridge will extend
southwestward over the Mid-Atlantic. Sunny skies are expected
once again on Wednesday, with high temperatures generally in the
50s. With the surface ridge overhead, the pressure gradient
will be much weaker Wednesday night, which should allow for
winds to go calm and create ideal conditions for radiational
cooling. Temperatures are forecast to drop back into the lower
to mid 30s Wednesday night. Freeze Watches remain in effect where
the growing season is in effect, minus the inner DC/Baltimore
Metros and Southern Maryland.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures will trend above normal the end of
this week and early next week despite a mainly dry frontal
passage on Saturday.

A warming trend will begin Thursday as the Mid Atlantic become
situated on the southwest flank of high pressure. Temperatures will
be near normal Thursday and above normal Friday when many areas will
reach the 70s. Freezing temperatures appear unlikely Thursday night,
although some locations could come close, especially the central
Shenandoah Valley.

Low pressure will pass along the St. Lawrence Valley Friday into
Friday night. The trailing cold front will reach the area by
Saturday. However, with the primary forcing having departed and
minimal moisture fetch, rain chances will be limited. The greatest
chance for any showers will be along the Allegheny Front. While this
front will knock temperatures down slightly Saturday and Sunday,
they will remain above normal.

As surface high pressure slides to the east early next week,
anomalous upper ridging will build along the east coast. This
will send temperatures even further above normal, and perhaps
close to some records as highs rise into the 80s. Despite this
being on Day 6 and 7, ensemble agreement is high regarding very
warm temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the end of the week. Winds will
likely diminish around 6pm or 7pm this evening and then becoming
northeast with high pressure moving by to the north then northeast
tonight. Light east to southeasterly winds are expected Wednesday.
No significant weather Thursday and Friday with light south winds.
A cold front will shift winds to the north Saturday but rain is
unlikely. Southerly winds will return by Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect through midnight tonight. Gusts 20-30 knots
through the period will diminish overnight with a few gusts lingering
around SCA criteria in spots overnight over the open bay waters.
Winds will shift to the northeast. Sub- SCA level winds are expected
Wednesday. Light south winds are expected Thursday and Friday as
high pressure departs. There could be a brief enhancement of southerly
winds Friday evening and northerly winds early Saturday as a dry
cold front crosses, but it is uncertain whether advisory conditions
will be met. High pressure crosses Saturday night with southerly
winds returning Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No precipitation is expected across the forecast area through the
week as a drier airmass works in from the northwest. The fire threat
remains for another couple of hours into early this evening as
northwesterly winds remain gusty to around 20-30 mph and RHs in
the 20s for most. Conditions will remain dry on Wednesday with
min RHs in the 20s, but winds will be lighter and out of the
southeast.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
     DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ008.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
     MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016-503>508.
     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for MDZ003>006-008-503-505-507-508.
VA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
     VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-
     527.
     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-055-056-501-502-
     505-506-526-527.
WV...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
     WVZ051>053.
     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538-539.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ530.
     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW/KJP
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/KJP
MARINE...ADS/KLW/KJP