Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

134
FXUS61 KLWX 180236
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
936 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded further to the
south and west to include much of the eastern portions of
central Maryland, all of Northeast Maryland including the city
of Baltimore, Washington D.C. and the I-95 corridor into
southeastern Prince William County in Virginia. A prolonged
period from Sunday night through Tuesday night looks to be very
cold. Wind chill values remain somewhat unchanged and a little
warmer than previously anticipated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary later
  tonight and during the day Sunday. A mix of rain and snow will
  transition to all snow.

- 2) Very cold conditions are expected over the region Monday
  night through Tuesday night, with below normal temperatures
  continuing through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary
later tonight and during the day Sunday. A mix rain and snow
will transition to all snow.

A front bisecting the region will be the focal zone of an area
of low pressure that will develop along it and move toward the
east as the front slides to the south and east. Many locations
will be in the middle to upper 30s in the areas that are
expected to encounter accumulating snow late tonight and Sunday.
As we approach daybreak Sunday morning, these temperatures will
slowly drop a degree every hour or two to reach close to or
below the freezing mark as precipitation begins. A mix of rain
and snow could start between 4am and 6am in eastern Maryland and
eastern Virginia, before the atmosphere cools down evenmore with
falling precipitation. Thus, the cold atmosphere will support
accumulating snowfall through much of the day Sunday.

East of I-95, more precipitation is expected, but temperatures
may be slightly above freezing for a large part of the event,
and precipitation may even be rain for a while. The best
potential for cold air and higher precipitation totals to
overlap appears to be central and northeastern Maryland,
northeastern Virginia. The model trend has been bringing
snowfall farther to the northwest; thus, resulting in the
potential for accumulating snowfall of 1 to 3 inches instead of
a dusting to near an inch. The Winter Weather Advisory previous
issued has been expanded to the west, southwest and south. Much
of central Maryland, far northeast Virginia, Baltimore and
Washington DC has been included. End time for the precipitation
could be pretty early in the day closer to and west of the Blue
Ridge. How long the precipitation lasts closer to the Chesapeake
Bay will depend on the western extent of the second frontal
wave. In any event, dry conditions look likely by mid Sunday
evening. Temperatures from the mid teens to mid 20s are expected
Sunday night, so any residual moisture or slush could refreeze.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Very cold conditions are expected over the
region Monday night through Tuesday night, with below normal
temperatures continuing through the remainder of the week.

Behind an Arctic front that crosses the region early on Monday
expect very cold conditions to settle in for the start of the week.
Well below normal temperatures are expected through at least
Wednesday, with a slight reprieve on Thursday, then another
reinforcing shot of cold air arrives for Friday.

Highs are going to remain in the 30s to around 40F each day, with
Tuesday being the coldest as the entire area remains below freezing
during the daytime. It will be particularly cold Monday night and
Tuesday night with lows in the single digits to teens. When
factoring in the winds, expect wind chills to be in the single
digits, with around -10F to -15F in the mountains. Again, the
coldest wind chills are forecast for Monday night into Tuesday
morning when a reinforcing upper trough and secondary cold front
cross the area.

By Thursday, the temperatures return to seasonal values of highs in
the 40s and lows in the 20s. At this point in the week model
guidance is some consensus in tracking a cold front across the area
Thursday afternoon/evening. This could bring a slight rain/snow mix
to parts of the area, though precip chances overall are low at 20-30
pct. Cold air surges in behind the front to close the week.

Per the 12Z models and early ensemble guidance the synoptic pattern
could become volatile for next weekend. A northern stream and
southern stream system interact over the central CONUS, eventually
pushing a deepening low pressure system and strong cold front across
the Mid-Atlantic. Few details are certain beyond that, so continue
to monitor the forecast through the upcoming week for what could be
the next possible round of widespread wintry precip next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue until late tonight. A cold front
arriving the second half of the night will bring more definitive
northwest winds as well as lowering ceilings.

Low pressure passing on the front along the coast will likely
bring a little snow or a rain/snow mix to many of the terminals
Sunday. Some light slushy accums and a period of IFR conditions
in snow and low ceilings are becoming increasingly likely,
though temps will be marginal and the system will be fast-
moving. Lowest chance of precip/IFR is at MRB, with fairly
brief durations at IAD and CHO. Precip may last longer at DCA
and especially BWI/MTN. There are some indications of a midday
break, with additional snow possible at these eastern terminals
in the afternoon. N/NW winds may briefly gust to around 15 kt
Sunday afternoon and evening as the low pulls away. VFR
conditions should return fairly quickly after precip ends.

VFR conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday behind a strong
arctic front. The main aviation impact will be gusty northwest winds
each day that gust around 20-25 knots. Monday looks to be the
gustiest day, with possible gusts up to 30-35 knots in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
An uptick in winds Sunday afternoon and evening as low pressure
passes offshore. This low is also expected to bring light snow
or a rain/snow mix, which will reduce visibility over the waters
on Sunday.

SCA conditions are likely for MLK Day into Tuesday behind a
strong arctic front. Northwest winds gust between 20-25 knots
across all the waters, with gusts up to 30 knots possible Monday
afternoon. Winds remain at SCA levels Monday night through
Tuesday afternoon, then decrease below SCA levels Tuesday night.
Another round of SCA conditions is possible Wednesday
afternoon. Freezing temperatures could result in ice buildup on
the local waters, especially in the small tributaries.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     DCZ001.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-503>508.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     VAZ053-054-506-526-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ530.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW/KRR
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/KRR
MARINE...ADS/KLW/KRR