Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

568
FXUS61 KLWX 201529
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1029 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Wind Advisory has been expanded in areal coverage to include
central and eastern Allegany County, eastern Mineral, eastern
Grant, and eastern Pendleton from 1pm to 10pm today/this
evening. Also, some early 12z guidance is arriving and continues
to show similar results as the 00z guidance in which the late
weekend system will bring a mix of rain and snow early Sunday
before transitioning over to all snow Sunday afternoon and
evening. There is still some discrepancies between the models in
terms of exact track of the winter storm, precipitation type,
and intensity.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-1) Slight winter storm threat continues for the entire area Sunday
into Monday as low pressure tracks along/near the coast. Colder than
normal temperatures early next week.

-2) Low clouds, drizzle and pockets of rain will exit around
 midday. Turning breezy with some clearing this afternoon as a
 cold front pushes through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Slight winter storm threat continues for the entire
area Sunday into Monday as low pressure tracks along/near the coast.
Colder than normal temperatures early next week.

A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for the back half
of the weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified, but in
flux as a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska
inducing a downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S.
This pattern amplification in the vicinity of western North America
comes with low predictability due to data sparse regions over the
North Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows
interact/merge over Maritime Canada, with inherent low
predictability with two cutoff lows interacting.

If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west
near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification
would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN
Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast
would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream
blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows
over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge
into northern New England. There is also an appearance of an
inverted trough signature in a subset of model guidance over the
last couple cycles, given interaction between a more amplified
northern stream wave and a bit more distant offshore southern stream
low. This could factor into precipitation amounts and placement.

After reviewing the 00z model guidance suite, some subtle
consistency has been noted although subtle uncertainty remains. Most
of the models has a low tracking up from GA/AL toward the NC
coast and off the Delmarva coast during the late Saturday night
into late Sunday timeframe. The question remains in the proximity
toward the coast along with cold air availability, and the overall
scope of the precip shield pending the placement/intensity of the
system. 25 to 50 miles could make a huge difference between seeing
little to no wintry precip or impactful precip, especially for those
east of the mountains where the confidence remains low due to
thermal issues especially below elevations of 1500 feet. The 00z
GFS/GEFS solutions have come down a tad, but still produce
measurements on the order of 10+" of snow over a large chunk of the
area. Meanwhile, the 12z EPS ensembles came up some, but at much
more conservative levels which align with deterministic runs of the
NAM, RDPS, GDPS, GEM, CMC, EURO/EURO AIFS, and UKMET. The
latest NBM also came up a bit and aligns with the majority
compared to the GFS/GEFS outliers, especially along and east of
I-95. With that said, the 6/12z model suites should put the
remaining puzzle pieces together as we will sit 60 hours from
the event.

Three scenarios remain:

 1) The phase of all of these upper level features occurs too late,
  with low development offshore and too far southeast.

 2) Similar to scenario 1, but an inverted trough on the back side
of the low brings snow to eastern portions of the region.

 3) Low develops closer to shore and strengthens along Delmarva
Peninsula, resulting in the most snow for our areas.

We still remain in the "wait and see" period with this storm, so
just take precautions now, should the worst case scenario play out.
Having a preparedness kit stocked up is never a bad idea.

Lastly, no matter what plays out further east, it seems much more
likely that the mountains will see another round of upslope
snow. The key here will be with how much we manage to get. That
will depend on the storm track as well, but it seems much more
likely for at least advisory to perhaps warning level
accumulations through the Sunday/Monday period along/west of the
Allegheny Front. Of note, the higher sun angle later in the
season becomes a factor especially for lower elevations if
precip occurs during the day. Cold air will also be filtering
into the region as the storm in question approaches, rather than
being locked-in beforehand, which offers another layer of
uncertainty in p-type.

Regardless of exactly how the details of the Sunday-Monday system
play out, another shot of below normal temperatures is favored for
early next week. Currently, high temperatures in the 40s (30s in the
mountains) with lows in the 20s (teens in the mountains) are
forecast through Tuesday night, with some midweek moderation after.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low clouds, drizzle, and pockets of rain will
exit around midday. Turning breezy with some clearing this
afternoon as a cold front pushes through.

The front will bring an end to the rain midday with increased
winds over the higher ridges of the Alleghenies. Gusts could
reach 40-50 mph (western Allegany, western Grant, western
Pendleton, and western Mineral counties) this afternoon into
late evening, which could cause some isolated/minor damage given
the saturated ground. There`s still a signal in some guidance
that these strong winds could downslope into the lee (US 220
corridor (i.e eastern Allegany, Hampshire, Hardy, Morgan,
eastern Grant, and eastern Pendleton counties)) during the
evening hours. Further east, more stable low level conditions
are expected, so winds will remain relatively tame with gust of
15 to 25 mph along and directly behind the front this afternoon
and into the evening hours. Lighter winds are expected Saturday
as the front pushes south of the area and stalls.

Highs this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 40s over
northeast MD where low clouds will hang on the longest to near
70 across the central VA Piedmont/Shenandaoh Valley. Similar
values are expected Saturday although slightly cooler over (in
the mid 50s and low 60s) central VA/Shenandoah Valley due to
gradual cold air advection.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain will exit by mid to late afternoon from west to east
across the area. However, low ceilings may persist into the
afternoon, especially for the metro terminals, as the warm front
may not fully lift north through the region. BWI/MTN have the
greatest confidence of holding low ceilings through 19z while
IAD/DCA could see improvements a bit sooner based on the
placement of the boundary. Winds will remain light out of
northeast switching to southeast at 10 kts or less. If the warm
front lifts north, winds will shift southerly before the cold
front reaches the area during the late afternoon or evening.
Gusts of 15 to 25 kts are possible along and behind the
boundary. Downslope westerly winds will follow this front. Winds
will also increase aloft with the frontal passage, so have
introduced low-level shear groups at the KIAD, KDCA, and KBWI
this evening into the front half of the overnight between 02-
07z/9pm-2am.

VFR conditions return briefly Saturday with light west winds
expected. Next chance of sub-VFR arrives with a coastal low pressure
system passing to the south Sunday into Monday. This system could
bring snow to the region, but exact amounts remain uncertain based
on track and intensity. The most likely time period for impacts from
snow would be late Sunday evening and into Sunday night. At this
point, there is still a good chance for an all rain event a,
especially if the system develops too far offshore. In that
scenario, we may not even see severe restrictions. With the level of
uncertainty, this storm could cause restrictions through Monday as
well, but right now would favor clearing by the afternoon. VFR
conditions return briefly Tuesday before another system mid next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate rain should move over northern/middle
portions of the tidal Potomac/Chesapeake Bay allowing
visibilities to briefly improve midday. Further improvement can
be expected this afternoon and evening as cold front cross the
waters. Gusts may approach advisory criteria later this
afternoon into early evening, but appears to be marginal/brief
(4 hour window or less). This threat will most likely be covered
by a Marine Weather Statement over a Small Craft Advisory given
the sporadic nature of the wind along and behind the front as
it pushes through. Lighter west winds are forecast Saturday.

A potentially strong low pressure system will slide by to our south
Sunday into Monday. There is a lot of uncertainty at this time, but
should this system track closer to our region and strengthen early
enough, some significant marine winds are possible. SCAs appear
likely at this time, but couldn`t completely rule out Gales in that
period too. However, that will largely be driven by the
track/strength of the low, which it is just too early to tell at
this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Sensitive locations are likely to reach Action Stage during high
tide through tonight before tides decrease a bit Saturday behind a
departing cold front. Greatest chance of reaching minor flood stage
will occur at Annapolis this evening. Tides are uncertain with
potential coastal storm Sunday into Monday given divergent model
solutions on the track/strength. While some tidal flooding can`t be
ruled out, a more probable outcome is that strong north winds could
result in crashing tide levels.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this
     evening for MDZ501-502-510.
VA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this
     evening for VAZ503.
WV...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this
     evening for WVZ501>506.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/EST
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/CJL/EST
MARINE...ADS/KLW/CJL/EST