Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

295
FXUS61 KLWX 071909
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
309 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast for this
latest cycle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry through mid week.

- 2) Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry through mid week.

High pressure will persist over the Mid-Atlantic through
Wednesday before gradually moving offshore. Large scale
subsidence and dry air lead to a precipitation-free forecast
with temperatures rising to several degrees above normal as
the high pulls offshore. This leads to high temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s Tuesday, perhaps near 90 Wednesday (slightly
cooler in the mountains). Low temperatures (and dew points)
will generally be in the 50s and 60s during this time. Some
river valley fog is likely each morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday.

The upper-level ridge will begin to flatten out Wednesday before
breaking down and pushing south and east into Thursday. Several
pieces of upper-level energy rotating around an upper low
centered over the Hudson Bay will slowly push a cold front south
towards our region by Thursday. At the surface, high pressure
pushing offshore will bring increasingly warm and humid
conditions to the area, with highs in the 80s to near 90 with
dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, with the highest values
being Thursday.

Model guidance over the past 24 hours has come into better agreement
in regards to the progression of the front on Thursday, as well as
the upper-level pattern in association with it. The front
really looks like it will flatten out as it moves southward, and
really loses the upper-level support. The timing of peak
heating and the highest shear just doesn`t look to line up at
this point. There may be some jet-induced showers and storms
late Thursday as we move into the right entrance of the upper
jet centered over New England, but not necessarily expecting
those to be severe at that point, as the front should be largely
through the region. At this point, the severe weather threat
looks very limited, but any storm that develops on the warm side
of the boundary could bring some gusty winds along with it, but
the lack of a substantial wind field will really make that more
difficult with southward extent.

As this cold front transitions offshore Friday, temps drop again
and conditions become much drier heading into the start of the
weekend as high pressure moves in overhead. The next system may
approach by late next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the
week, with two exceptions. Early morning river valley fog could
affect mainly KCHO/KMRB each day roughly 08z-13z. Then, some
shower and thunderstorm activity could bring brief restrictions
on Thursday (mainly in the afternoon and/or evening). Light NE
winds today become E to S tonight into Tuesday, then remain S
through Thursday until a cold front brings a shift to W/NW.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will result in light northeast winds becoming
south through Tuesday. Winds may increase briefly early
Wednesday morning as the high shifts offshore, but are more
likely to increase in southerly channeling Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night. Winds shift to the west and northwest and
could remain gusty Thursday as a cold front crosses, possibly
bringing a few showers and thunderstorms. Winds should become
lighter heading into Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels remain around one foot above normal. With light
northeast winds becoming southerly, tide levels are likely to
remain relatively steady around one foot above astronomical
norms through the middle of the week. The higher of the two
diurnal tides is in the later night/early morning period, during
which time Annapolis is most likely to hit minor flood stage
through early Thursday prior to a cold front shifting winds to
the west. Other sites like Havre de Grace, Bowley`s Quarters,
and Alexandria could approach minor flood at times, as well.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Tuesday for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL
MARINE...DHOF/CJL