Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

792
FXUS61 KLWX 300644
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
244 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and thunderstorms return to the area during the
  second half of the weekend and potentially lingering into
  early next week.

- 2) Primarily dry conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms return to the area
during the second half of the weekend and potentially lingering
into early next week.

Ensemble guidance advances a strong upper level trough from the
Great Lakes into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday and into
Monday. This cut off low pressure system and associated cold
front brings increasing chances for showers and a few t-storms
in our area through Monday. Shear and instability values seem
low due to weak winds aloft and widespread cloudiness, so severe
threat appears very low. Rainfall amounts of half to one inch
spaced over a long period of time mean this rainfall would be
largely beneficial and should not cause any flooding concerns.

Continuing into Tuesday and Wednesday, this cold front may to stall
out to the the south of our area. Thus, showers and a few t-storms
could linger into the later half of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Primarily dry conditions through the end of the
week.

Surface high pressure builds over the mid-atlantic with primarily
dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected through the
end of the week. An isolated rain shower or perhaps a
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this evening as daytime
heating leads to slightly increased instability and an upper
level trough pivots overhead. However, conditions across the
forecast area are expected to be primarily dry with rain
chances remaining low. Precipitation chances slightly increase
in the far western portions of the forecast area on Saturday,
with the rest of the forecast area remaining dry.

Highs will gradually increase each day with temperatures staying
in the 70s to upper 80s today. On Friday, some locations in the
southern portions of the region and along the I-95 corridor
near or exceed 90 degrees. While the higher elevations stay in
the 70s on Saturday, most of the lover elevations will be in the
mid 80s to low 90s across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions and gusty northwest winds are expected through
this morning. Beginning around 12Z, northwest winds increase
across all terminals, gusting 15 to 20 knots through the early
afternoon. Winds slowly begin diminishing this evening with
light winds blowing 5 to 10 knots expected through Friday. As
surface high pressure builds overhead, VFR and dry conditions
are expected through the end of the week.

Precipitation chances return on Saturday to KCHO with sub-VFR
conditions possible. Light winds blow out of the south. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible across all terminals Sunday with
flight restrictions possible during precipitation. Winds remain
light out of the south/southeast.

On Monday, precipitation chances linger across all terminals
with the highest chances at KCHO. Flight restrictions are
possible during precipitation. Winds blow out of the northeast
before becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds gust up to 20 knots today with Small Craft
Advisories in effect until later this afternoon. On Friday,
winds further diminish and remain light throughout the day. On
Saturday, wind shifts to southerly with additional advisories
likely across the open waters.

SCA criteria winds continue Sunday with showers and
thunderstorms leading to possible SMWs in the afternoon.
Winds remain below SCA criteria on Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain steady through the end of the week with
sensitive tidal locations remaining in Action stage during the
high tide cycles. This weekend, tidal anomalies rise with
southerly winds. Annapolis is forecast to reach Minor flood
stage early Saturday morning.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ535-538.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KVH
AVIATION...AVS
MARINE...AVS