Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

033
FXUS61 KLWX 041400
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
900 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions look to continue with high pressure
nearby. A reinforcing cold front will pass through the area
this afternoon delivering a few mountain snow showers and
brisk conditions. Light wintry precipitation chances return
Friday as low pressure passes to the south. High pressure
briefly returns this weekend before a pair of clipper-like
systems impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid/high clouds are increasing as a reinforcing cold front
approaches. This front will cross later today with breezy
conditions expected. Making some slight upward tweaks to winds
and gusts for later today given upstream obs and BUFKIT.

Closely monitoring incoming guidance regarding Friday`s system,
which has trended a little quicker and farther to the north.

Previous discussion...
Through the day, the upstream cold front will race eastward in
time before tracking across the I-95 corridor by this afternoon.
While mostly dry in nature, some scattered snow showers or
areas of freezing drizzle are possible this morning along the
Allegenies. Any impacts should be minimal given the limited
precipitation amounts. Otherwise, this frontal zone increases
cloud cover over the region with increasing wind gusts in the
wake. Ample vertical mixing in the post-frontal environment will
raise gusts to around 20 to 30 mph this afternoon before
diminishing into the evening and night. Forecast highs rise into
the upper 30s to 40s, with 20s and 30s in the mountains.

The focus then shifts to a potent shortwave currently spinning
over northern New Mexico. As this system accelerates eastward,
it will spread a broad light area of wintry precipitation,
particularly north of the low track. Cold air will certainly be
in place over the Mid-Atlantic region early Friday as stout
high pressure becomes centered across New England. Most
locations should see overnight temperatures in the teens to mid
20s. Light snow overspreads the region from west to east,
particularly for areas south of I-66. Given an inch or two of
snow expected across portions of central Virginia, Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued across Nelson, Albemarle,
Orange, and Spotsylvania counties starting at 1 AM Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Light snow remains in the picture through early Friday
afternoon. One of the biggest questions is the northward extent
of this threat for wintry precipitation. Within the suite of 00Z
high-resolution models, the HRRR solution is by far the furthest
north which paints an inch or two as far north as the D.C.
metro. Will play it more conservatively until other models join
this solution. The current forecast package carries measurable
snow up to the I-70 corridor and into northeastern Maryland.
However, the best chance for a couple inches of snow is along
I-64. Any Winter Weather Advisories end at 4 PM Friday, although
these could be extended based on observational trends.
Otherwise, it will be a cold day to finish the work week as
highs largely do not escape the low/mid 30s (mid 20s to low 30s
across the mountains).

As the main axis of light snow exits off into the Delmarva
Peninsula, models continue to show weak ascent within the sub-
freezing air mass into Friday evening. Forecast soundings across
the area show some saturation in the lowest 100-mb, but dry up
above. This may induce some areas of light freezing drizzle
which may yield a glaze on any untreated surfaces. As the
developing coastal system pulls away from the Eastern Seaboard,
some residual clouds likely stick around into Friday night.
Forecast lows mainly range from the upper teens to mid 20s. Wind
fields should be relatively light as high pressure approaches
from the Mid-South.

A slew of weak to modest impulses in the large-scale cyclonic
flow will keep clouds in the forecast into Saturday. The
forecast is a dry one though with milder temperatures owing to a
shift to south-southwesterly winds. Saturday`s highs rise into
the low/mid 40s, with 30s across the higher terrain. Clouds
persist into Saturday night with overnight lows staying in the
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Longwave troughing will remain in place across the eastern half of
the CONUS through the middle of next week, leading to a prolonged
stretch of below normal temperatures.

An upper trough axis will track through the Mississippi and
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. Two more well defined shortwaves
will reside within this trough axis, with one passing to our north
across the Great Lakes, and another passing to our south across the
Deep South. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Sunday out ahead of
the approaching upper trough axis. High temperatures will be in the
upper 30s and lower 40s for most.

The upper trough axis will move overhead on Monday, before
progressing off toward our east Monday night. High pressure should
build toward the area from the Ohio Valley in the wake of the trough
axis on Monday, before becoming centered overhead Monday night.
Northerly flow ahead of the approaching high will advect some of the
coldest air of the season into the area. Daytime highs on Monday are
only forecast to be in the 30s, and overnight lows Monday night
are forecast to be in the teens.

Spread in model guidance begins to increase by Tuesday and
Wednesday, but most solutions show hints of at least one, and
possibly two Alberta Clippers tracking east-southeastward toward the
Great Lakes. Depending on the tracks of these systems, some light
precipitation may be possible, especially across northwestern
portions of the forecast area. Upslope snow showers may also become
increasingly possible within cold advection behind the departing
clippers by Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected today, although winds pick up this
afternoon as a quick moving cold front pushes across the region.
West to northwesterly gusts behind this system may push into the
20 to 25 knot range before diminishing some after dark.

In the wake, Canadian high pressure builds to the north into
Friday morning. At the same time, a progressive shortwave tracks
by to the south. This will spread a light area of wintry
precipitation to the region, especially south of I-66. KCHO
would be the most likely to see accumulations and restrictions
from this activity. For the D.C. and Baltimore terminals, the
forecast calls for around 0.5 inches of snow. Friday should
feature plenty of restrictions given the low stratus and areas
of light snow. This likely tapers off to a freezing drizzle by
Friday evening before drying out overnight.

VFR conditions return for Saturday with winds turning more
south-southwesterly.

VFR conditions appear likely on both Sunday and Monday. Winds should
be out of the north both days.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories go into effect this morning given an
uptick in winds ahead of the cold front. These pick up further
as this front pushes across the waters this afternoon. Advisory
caliber winds persist into the first of the night before
tapering off. Expect winds to shift to easterly on Friday as an
of low pressure passes by to the south before shifting off the
coast. Some wintry precipitation is looking likely on Friday
morning into the afternoon. Expect a shift to south-
southwesterlies by Saturday, but wind gusts should stay around
10 to 15 knots.

Sub-SCA level northerly winds are expected on Sunday. SCAs may be
needed in northerly flow Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for
     VAZ025-036>038-050-056-057-507-508.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530>532-
     538>541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Friday for ANZ533.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ534-537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ535.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 PM EST this evening
     for ANZ536.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EST tonight
     for ANZ542.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO/DHOF
NEAR TERM...BRO/DHOF
SHORT TERM...BRO/DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/KJP