Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

781
FXUS61 KLWX 211927
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
327 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been extended through Friday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- A wet pattern setting up across the Mid-Atlantic heading into
  the Memorial Day weekend.

- Daily rain chances persist into early next week, with
  gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A wet pattern setting up across the Mid-Atlantic heading into
 the Memorial Day weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Light rain will continue across northwest areas this afternoon along
and north of an 850 mb front while showers and isolated
thunderstorms continue across central VA and the I-64 corridor
in the vicinity of surface front. Light rain across northwest
areas will gradually shift southeast tonight as 850 mb front
pushes south. Expect off and on rain tonight into Friday
morning with steadier rain Fri into Sat as 850 mb front begins
to lift north again. Given large rainfall deficits and severe
drought conditions, the rainfall will be extremely beneficial.

Rainfall chances begin to taper off Saturday night as 850 mb
front lifts north into PA, but anticipate low clouds and/or fog
to persist through Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Daily rain chances persist into early next
week, with gradually warming temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

A surface low over the Great Lakes will push north of the region on
Monday, bringing continued rain & thunderstorm chances into next
week as it pushes offshore by Tuesday. Temperatures may briefly cool
a bit on Monday before the warm front pushes through, but
temperatures should generally start to steadily rise each day
afterwards, with highs forecasted to potentially be in the 80s again
by Wednesday. An additional frontal boundary will meander just south
of the region through then, which will continue to cause daily rain
chances into the midweek.

Looking ahead towards the later half of next week, broad high
pressure moves in from the north starting between Wednesday and
Thursday, potentially bringing a few days of clearer skies in the
long-term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Off and on rain and IFR cigs will persist through Sunday
morning.

Daily chances of rain showers across the region will continue the
potential for periodic sub-VFR conditions at terminals Monday and
Tuesday. Northeast winds flow 5-10 knots during this time, turning
southeast by Monday evening through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong onshore flow will support SCA conditions through
Saturday.

Small Craft Advisories remain unlikely Monday and Tuesday, with
light winds turning southeast by Monday evening; a brief northerly
shift could occur late Tuesday morning before returning
southeast.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
     MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ530-538.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/SRT
MARINE...LFR/SRT