Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

759
FXUS61 KLWX 201830
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
230 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A few showers will exit east of the area by this evening. Winds
will subside shortly after dark. The mid week system continues
to trend subtly higher with rain potential, but it still does
not look like a heavy rain event by any stretch.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- (1) Widespread freeze expected tonight into Tuesday morning.

- (2) Warmer temperatures mid to late week, then becoming
      unsettled this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread freeze expected tonight into Tuesday
morning.

A secondary surface cold front and corresponding upper-level
trough will push offshore this evening bringing an end to any
shower activity and breezy conditions.

High pressure builds overhead tonight into Tuesday leading to
lighter winds. The cold, dry airmass, clear skies and light to
calm winds tonight into Tuesday morning are likely to bring
widespread freeze conditions aside from the major urban centers
and away from larger bodies of water.

This is ~10 days past the median date of the last spring freeze
based on 1991-2020 climatology for areas along/east of I-81.
Given the warmth early this spring, many areas are ahead of
schedule from a growth stand point, so this freeze could be
rather impactful.

There are no frost/freeze headlines for the Alleghenies as the
growing season has not started there yet.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer temperatures mid to late week, then
becoming unsettled this weekend.

As Canadian high pressure slides off toward the south, a quick
moving cold front will cross the region by mid-week. There will
not be a whole lot of moisture to work with, so any rainfall
amounts are likely to be meager in nature. Some instability in
the atmosphere could produce a few thunderstorms, particularly
during the afternoon hours. A lack of stronger forcing, shear,
or instability should lead to generally weak convection, though
some spotty downpours or gusty winds can`t be ruled out.

After a chilly start to the work week, ensembles agree on a marked
warm up through the middle to latter portions of the week. High
temperatures could push back into the low/mid 80s by Friday
ahead of another system likely to bring a return of rain by the
second half of Friday. A threat of showers continues through
much of the weekend before the frontal system exits east of the
region by late in the weekend. On Sunday, the latest forecast
package calls for highs returning to the 60s. This eventually
all lends itself to a cooler finish to the month of April.
However, there is uncertainty in the evolution of low pressure
approaching the area by then, and just how the temperature and
precipitation forecast pans out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Winds subside through this evening with SKC expected. It will be
rather chilly tonight with frost possible early Tuesday morning.

VFR conditions will persist through mid week. Winds shift to the
S Tuesday, then SW to NW Wednesday as a cold front crosses; brief
reduction to sub-VFR can`t be ruled out in any SHRA/TSRA.

Behind the progressive mid-week system, VFR conditions are likely
for Thursday into the first half of Friday. WAA showers are
possible by Friday afternoon which could be accompanied by a
few restrictions. Initial winds will be out of the NW on
Thursday before becoming mainly westerly on Friday. A shift to
southeasterly is possible by Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure builds overhead tonight into Tuesday. Light winds
tonight turn southerly Tuesday with additional SCAs possible
late Tuesday into Wednesday. Sub-SCA level winds are expected
late Wednesday with winds out of the SW to NW as a cold front
crosses. This front may bring a few showers and thunderstorms
mainly Wednesday afternoon.

Expect sub-advisory level winds for both Thursday and Friday.
Weak gradients will favor multiple wind shifts before turning
mainly S/SE by Friday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much cooler temperatures are expected through Tuesday with a
moderating trend in temperatures expected during the middle and
second half of the week. Winds will be on light side starting
tonight thanks to high pressure overhead, but humidities will be
marginally low to near critical levels. The next potential for
rainfall is Wednesday into Thursday, but amounts look light.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southerly flow is expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will
result in rising tidal anomalies. The higher members of P-ETSS
and SFAS, as well as STOFS and CBOFS all hint at the potential
for minor flooding at Annapolis early Wednesday as a result.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for DCZ001.
MD...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ003>006-
     008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ025>031-
     036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505>508-526-527.
WV...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/DHOF/KJP/CPB
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/KJP/CPB
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/KJP/CPB