Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

156
FXUS61 KLWX 280055 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
855 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonably cool weekend gradually warms early next week,
  with substantial forecast uncertainty toward the end next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably cool weekend gradually warms early
next week, with substantial forecast uncertainty toward the end
next week.

Much colder conditions for tonight as temps continue to fall
into the 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Saturday. Brisk conditions
for Saturday, especially in the morning where wind chills will
be in the teens to 20s across the area (and single digits in the
mountains). Mostly sunny skies enable temperatures to climb
into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Winds decrease Saturday evening into Saturday night as high pressure
moves overhead. Clear skies and calm winds will lead to ideal
radiational cooling conditions. This enables temperatures to drop
back into the 20s across the area. Winds turn southerly Sunday,
allowing a return of seasonal temperatures and breezy afternoon
conditions.

Model guidance is in good agreement that we`ll see a pronounced
warming trend in temperatures early next week as south to
southwesterly low-level flow between high pressure offshore in the
western Atlantic and low pressure developing over the Plains advects
air from the Gulf and Desert Southwest into the region. With
primarily zonal flow aloft, conditions are expected to remain dry
through early portions of the week. Temperatures are forecast to
reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s on Monday, upper 70s to low
80s on Tuesday, and low to mid 80s by Wednesday.

An area of low pressure will deepen as it tracks well to our north
and west through the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This system, in tandem with a building area of
high pressure in its wake, will drive a strong cold front
southeastward toward our area later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Ensemble guidance differs substantially with respect to how far
south this front will ultimately make it. Some solutions stall the
front out to our north, while many have it move through with strong
cold advection following behind it for Wednesday night into
Thursday. Regardless of what solution verifies, we`ll likely have
increased chances for showers, and potentially even a thunderstorm
or two Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The chances for
showers may potentially linger into the day Thursday as well. The
temperature forecast is much more uncertain, with ensemble members
showing a wide array of solutions. Our temperature forecast will
ultimately be tied to the positioning of the aforementioned front.
Some of the warmest members (which keep the front off to our
northwest) have highs on Thursday as warm as the upper 80s, while
the coolest members (which push the front well off to our south)
have highs in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions steadily improve this evening as the cold front
pushes further south of the area. VFR conditions and clear
skies return tonight through the weekend. Winds are likely to be
gusty each afternoon this weekend, with northwest gusts of
20-25 knots Saturday becoming south around 20 knots Sunday.

VFR conditions and south to southwesterly winds are expected at the
terminals on both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions are expected through tonight as a cold front pushes
further south of the area. A surge of northerly winds after
midnight tonight will bring widespread gusts of 20-30 knots
across the waters. Winds remain elevated through Saturday
afternoon, gusting around 20-25 knots. Winds become light to
calm Saturday night as high pressure builds overhead. Then as
the high quickly moves offshore Sunday winds become south, with
southerly channeling likely produce SCA conditions over the
waters.

South to southwesterly flow is expected over the waters on both
Monday and Tuesday. SCA gusts may be possible Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry airmass is expected to settle over the area this weekend.
Minimum RH values drop to 20-30 percent on Saturday, and 25-35
percent on Sunday. The lowest values Saturday are expected east of
the Blue Ridge and across the central Shenandoah Valley where RH
could drop to the upper teens. Fire weather threat should be at
least tampered due to the wetting rains today (Friday), but will
need to monitor the situation as winds will be gusting around 20-25
mph Saturday afternoon.

Sunday might be the more fire sensitive day since fine fuels will
have a chance to dry out on Saturday. Seasonal temperatures around
60F and southwest winds around 10-20 mph are forecast Sunday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/KJP/KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KJP/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KJP/KRR