Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

440
FXUS61 KLWX 310745
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
345 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made to the forecast this morning. Small
Craft Advisory will be needed for most of the waters for
Saturday afternoon to evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances this
weekend into next week.

Expecting another dry summer day as weak high pressure moves over
the region. Temps will be slightly warmer in the upper 80s to low
90s, with light northwest winds through this evening. Southerly flow
returns tonight into this weekend as the high pressure moves
offshore. in its wake a potent upper level trough moves east from
the Great Lakes toward the Ohio River Valley. The upper level trough
then pinches off into a cut low near Ohio late Sunday night. The
associated cold front is progged to slowly track across the area
during the second half of the weekend into early next week.

Moisture return ahead of this system begins Saturday where scattered
showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast. Convection looks
to be focused mainly west of the Blue Ridge on Saturday, then
widespread showers and thunderstorms are most likely Sunday into
Sunday night. Shear and instability values look to remain low due to
weak winds aloft and widespread cloud cover. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible Sunday night, but the exact placement and intensity will
depend on where the cutoff low and jet streak aloft are located. A
few ensemble members show the possibility of rain amounts upwards of
2-3" if favorable dynamics come together.

On Monday, the cutoff surface low pressure system near the Ohio
River Valley continues to fill in and increase in pressure. Although
ensembles tend to weaken the low pressure system Monday, widespread
showers and thunderstorms chances continue throughout the day with
abundant cloud cover.

As the upper level trough associated with Monday`s weather leaves
our region Tuesday, conditions remain unstable with an abnormally
moist airmass remaining over our region through much of next week.
With peak heating, diurnal thunderstorms cannot be ruled out next
week with chances increasing into the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through at least Sunday morning as high
pressure over the region moves offshore. Sub-VFR conditions likely
at some point Sunday afternoon/evening as a cold front slowly
approaches from the west. A period of rain, with some thunderstorms,
are likely Sunday night.

VFR conditions Monday through Tuesday night for the most part. There
is a chance for showers and thunderstorms both day that could bring
brief MVFR or IFR conditions, primarily Monday and particularly near
CHO terminal. Winds south to southwest 5 to 10 knots Monday. Winds
becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Tuesday, then southeast late
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure moving over the region today maintains light winds
over the waters, with a return of southerly flow tonight as the high
moves offshore. SCA conditions are likely each afternoon/evening
this weekend, especially over the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay
where southerly channeling will be strongest. A few thunderstorms
possible over the waters Sunday night.

No marine hazards expected at this time through Tuesday night. Winds
south to southwest 5 to 15 knots Monday. Winds becoming northeast 5
to 10 knots Tuesday, then southeast late Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies are forecast to slowly rise this weekend as
southerly flow returns. Sensitive tidal locations will reach Action
Stage during high tide cycles, with Annapolis forecast to reach
minor flood stage during the Saturday morning high tide cycle. Other
locations could also approach minor flood stage this weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR/KVH
AVIATION...KRR/KVH
MARINE...KRR/KVH