Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

611
FXUS61 KLWX 030726
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Stronger convection has mostly moved out of the area early this
morning, with light showers lingering. Flood Watch was dropped
earlier in the night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Additional rounds of locally heavy thunderstorms could
  lead to instances of flash flooding through this afternoon.

- 2) Additional shower and thunderstorm chances persist through
  this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE...Additional rounds of locally heavy thunderstorms could
lead to instances of flash flooding through this afternoon.

The upper level low previously over the upper OH Valley continues to
elongate/weaken as it moves northeast and away from our area this
morning. The associated frontal boundary over eastern OH / western
PA early this morning is going to slowly drop south into our area by
this afternoon. The front is going to be the main focus for another
round of showers and thunderstorms. The main uncertainty is the
exact placement of this boundary, with most high res guidance
showing it from Baltimore to Staunton by 18Z this afternoon. Along
and south/east of this line is where most of the rain chances (50-70
pct) will be for today, with mostly dry conditions to the
north/west.

It is still going to be warm and muggy areawide as highs reach the
mid to upper 80s. Thunderstorms once again are going to be efficient
rain makers with a deep warm cloud layer and PWATs above 2". A few
instances of flash flooding are possible if any heavy thunderstorm
develops and moves slowly over an urban or poor drainage area. The
frontal boundary completely crosses the area this evening, ushering
in drier conditions for tonight. Slightly lower dew points allow
temps to drop to the 60s for most locations (upper 50s in the
mountains).

The boundary attempts to lift north as a warm front Tuesday, but only
makes it to around I-64. This means most of the area remains dry.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon
along and south of a line from Staunton to Fredericksburg. The dry
spell is going to be short lived as the warm front lifts north
across the entire area on Wednesday, bringing the return of an
active weather pattern that persists through the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Additional shower and thunderstorm chances
persist through this weekend.

Showers and thunderstorms will focus in the afternoon & evening
hours each day. Increasing humidity will allow for PWATs ranging
from the 75th-90th percentile, indicating potentially increased
flooding concerns with any thunderstorms that do materialize. Severe
thunderstorm probabilities continue to indicate the potential for
severe thunderstorms during the Thursday-Sunday timeframe, with
machine learning outputs remaining in the 15%-30% range. Still, that
remains uncertain given the lack of defined synoptic support and
abundant cloud cover over the region that limits instability.

As this synoptic pattern persists, temperatures gradually increase
back to summertime normals, with elevated humidity contributing
towards heat indices that will approach 100F across the metros late
into the week. Looking ahead, deterministic models do show some
signal for this front transitioning offshore towards the start of
next week with drier air moving in from the west, potentially
providing some relief from the humidity. For now, the primary
weather feature remains as humid & rainy, along with increasing
heat.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms continue tracking across the
area early this morning, and these could reach the IAD/DCA/BWI
terminals during the early morning hours. A mix of MVFR-IFR CIGs is
impacting some terminals, but that is going to vary through the
morning hours as showers/storms move through.

VFR conditions return this afternoon as a front slowly moves south
across the area. Another round of showers/thunderstorms are likely
this afternoon, except at MRB that will be north of the boundary.
Dry and VFR conditions tonight through Wednesday morning. Daily
shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday afternoon as that
frontal boundary lifts back north across the area as a warm
front.

Sub-VFR conditions will likely continue to be intermittent at
terminals throughout the week as daily shower and thunderstorm
chances persist, particularly in the afternoon & evening timeframes.
South to southwesterly winds flow Wednesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly channeling through this morning is going to produce SCA
conditions over most of the waters, especially the main channel of
the Chesapeake Bay. A weak front slowly moves south across the
waters today, though not before another round of showers and
thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Special Marine Warnings are
likely needed again today, especially south of the Bay Bridge and
over the lower Tidal Potomac. Wind gusts in excess of 35 knots are
the primary threat to mariners, in addition to lightning strikes.

The front pushes south of the waters this evening. Dry conditions
and sub-SCA winds expected Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The
stalled boundary lifts back north over the area as a warm front by
Wednesday afternoon. Southerly flow returns, and could approach SCA
levels over the central Chesapeake Bay. Wednesday also brings with
it the return of daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Southerly channeling over the waters are anticipated to produce SCA
conditions Thursday afternoon through Friday. Showers &
thunderstorms remain possible over the waters during this period
(especially in the afternoon/evening hours) due to a stalled front
nearby.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tidal levels will lead to additional minor tidal flooding
at Annapolis during this morning`s high tide. As a result, the
Coastal Flood Advisory was extended to cover that high tide as well.
Other sensitive locations will approach or reach Action Stage. A
brief period of lighter winds is expected Tuesday and that should
prevent minor tidal flooding at all locations. Southerly flow
returns Wednesday through the end of the week, bringing the
possibility of additional periods of coastal flooding.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR/SRT
AVIATION...KRR/SRT
MARINE...KRR/SRT