Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KLWX 061350
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
950 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Made a few minor changes to the aviation section to speak to
the low clouds this morning, particularly over IAD. Also altered
the marine section slightly. Overall though, forecast remains on
track over the next several days.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot, humid conditions persist into next week, along with
  daily chances for shower and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot, humid conditions persist into next week,
along with daily chances for shower and thunderstorms.

The Bermuda High remains in place across the western Atlantic into
next week. PWATS will be near or greater than 2" in the valleys with
1-2" in the mountains. South to southwesterly flow is maintained
over the Mid-Atlantic. Hot and humid conditions each afternoon, with
highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the low
100s each of the Blue Ridge.

A surface trough is progged to remain over the area through Friday.
Aloft, pieces of shortwave energy continue passing overhead and help
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Deep
layer shear is forecast to increase through the weekend as the
subtropical jet stream strengthens. Hotter conditions may cause
relatively steeper low-level lapse rates and the wind field
strengthens a bit (especially Friday). This is going to bring an
increasing chance for strong to severe thunderstorms each day, with
Friday and Saturday looking to have the highest chances. On
Saturday, a more potent shortwave trough is forecast to move
overhead that could aid in stronger, more organized severe
convection. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat.

A quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop Sunday into into next week.
Sunday could bring a short reprieve as dry conditions prevail.
Seasonably hot, humid conditions along with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms return Monday through most of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR to IFR CIGs remain over IAD for now, but are starting to
burn off. That being said, could see a SCT deck around 1000-1500
feet for a few more hours. Model guidance handled this cloud
deck poorly, but there is plenty of moisture around in the low-
levels to keep a few clouds around this level for a while.
Overall though, VFR conditions seem most likely in this period
for the most part, with clouds around 3-4 kft. Elsewhere, VFR
is expected.

VFR conditions prevail for most of the time through early next
week. South to southwest winds prevail for the foreseeable
future as the Bermuda high persists across the western Atlantic.
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening through early next week, which could result in periods
of restrictions at affected terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories could be needed for parts of the waters at
times through Saturday, mainly in the late afternoon to evening.
Most days will be marginal, and likely handled by MWSs, but just
know it could get a bit breezy over the open waters each
afternoon. Otherwise, winds remain around 10 knots. Daily
showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon into next
early week. Special Marine Warnings would accompany any of the
stronger thunderstorms capable of producing frequent lightning
and wind gusts over 35 knots.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies climb late this week in response to return southerly flow.
Periods of coastal flooding are possible at times of high tide at
sensitive locations.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR
AVIATION...CJL/KRR
MARINE...CJL/KRR