Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

204
FXUS61 KLWX 062009
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
309 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A few additional expansion of Cold Weather and Wind Advisories
to cover the rest of the central VA Piedmont. Low Water
Advisories also issued for likely impactful blowout tide
Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dangerous, life-threatening cold conditions and damaging
  winds Saturday.

- 2) Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the Alleghenies late
  this morning through Saturday morning.

- 3) A warming trend in temperatures is expected early next
  week, with a chance for mixed precipitation following on
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous, life-threatening cold conditions and
damaging winds Saturday.

There is extremely high confidence in a prolonged period of
dangerous, life-threatening wind chills (paired with strong to
damaging winds) across the area Saturday morning through Sunday
morning. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories are
in place across the entire forecast area from tonight through
Sunday morning.

A strong low pressure system located offshore paired with
arctic high pressure moving in from Canada that yields a very
tight pressure gradient across the area. A strengthening LLJ at
850-925mb that crosses the area Saturday morning will support
the mixing of stronger winds down to the surface.

A sudden onset of strong winds is expected right as the Arctic
front passes through, which looks to be between 1AM to 6AM from
northwest to southeast. Winds are going to rapidly increase
from 5-10 mph to gusting 30-40 mph in tens of minutes, with
gusts of 50-60 mph mixed in there. Wind gusts then remain steady
at 45-55 mph through Saturday evening, with embedded gusts of
60-70 mph at times (higher gusts possible in the mountains). The
High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect through
Saturday evening for the entire area.

Wind chills are forecast to crash below zero by daybreak
Saturday, and remain below zero through at least late Sunday
morning. For the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge wind chills bottom
out between -20F to -30F, and possibly as cold as -40F at Spruce
Knob. Elsewhere, wind chills as low as -10F to -20F are
expected.

This is only the second Extreme Cold Warning (along with its
predecessor - Wind Chill Warning) issued for the immediate DC
and Baltimore metro areas (as far back as WWA records go). The
current forecast has between 24-30 hours of wind chills below
zero over most of the area from Saturday early morning to Sunday
late morning. It has been over 30 years since this area has
observed this long a period of sub-zero wind chills, last
occurring on January 15-16, 1994 (when wind chills below zero
lasted upwards of 30-36 hours).

Cannot stress enough the impact these wind chills and strong to
damaging winds will have. Tree and powerlines damage is
possible. Any power outages might last several days as crews
will not be able to repair infrastructure until winds and wind
chills decrease on Sunday. Anyone without proper clothing will
be at risk of frostbite in as little as 30 minutes, with less
time in the mountains where lower wind chills are expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the
Alleghenies late this morning through Saturday morning

Steady light to moderate snow is already ongoing in the
Alleghenies this afternoon, with an expected period of heavier
snow as an Arctic front crosses the area tonight. Winter Storm
Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the
Allegheny Front. Snow squalls are possible with the front
overnight. In addition to accumulating snowfall, gusty
northwest winds as high as 50 to 60 mph will result in blowing
and drifting snow. This will yield reduced visibilities as low
as 1/4 mile across roadways.

When/where the snow and wind overlap there will be near-
blizzard conditions, and after the snow falls blowing snow
remains a big issue heading into Saturday. Travel disruptions
are likely along I-68/US-40 west of Frostburg, MD, US-219 from
the PA/MD line south to the WV line, US-48 west of Moorefield,
WV, US-33/WV-28 west of Franklin, WV, and US-250 west of
Monterey, VA.

To the east, light snow has overspread most of the area as of
3PM, with steadier to moderate snow noted in central VA. Most of
the snow is expected to be light, bringing a possible coating
to a few tenths of an inch to most areas. Half an inch to 1 inch
of snow are possible in locations that see heavier snow
showers.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend in temperatures is expected early
next week, with a chance for mixed precipitation following on
Wednesday.

Upper troughing will finally depart offshore early next week,
enabling more of a zonal flow pattern to develop across the CONUS.
As a result, the Arctic airmass that will be in place this weekend
will gradually erode from southwest to northeast early next week,
leading to a slow, but steady warming trend in temperatures.
High temperatures on Monday are forecast to range from the mid 20s
across northeast Maryland to the mid to upper 30s across the
Central Shenandoah Valley and Central Virginia. Notably warmer
conditions are forecast on Tuesday, with much of the Shenandoah
Valley, Potomac Highlands, and Central Virginia making it into the
50s. Similar temperatures are forecast on Wednesday, but model
guidance shows much greater spread with respect to forecast
temperatures with precipitation potentially moving in from the west.
The warmer temperatures next week could potentially lead to more
substantial melting of the snowpack that is currently in place
across the entire forecast area.

Model guidance continues to show significant spread on Wednesday,
with a northern stream disturbance tracking to our north through the
Great Lakes while an upper low that originates over the Desert
Southwest shears out into an open wave as it passes to our south.
Light precipitation may be possible for a time on Wednesday
as these systems pass through, but forecast uncertainty remains
high. A few ensemble members have that precipitation falling as
freezing rain or snow, especially across northern Maryland, while
others have it falling as all rain.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Light snow will continue at most terminals through around
22-23Z, then should quickly taper off this evening. Snow is
producing reduced VSBY and CIGs are affected terminals, with
some light snow accumulation possible. Once snow ends expect
improvements in CIGs and VSBY almost right away.

A powerful Arctic front crosses the area late tonight into early
Saturday morning. Winds rapidly shift northwest and increase
suddenly. Expect winds to go from 5-10 kt to gusting 35-40 kt
within an hour. Gusts of 40-50 kt are expected through the day
on Saturday, with gusts above 50 kt possible at times in the
afternoon (TEMPO group was added to account for this). Winds
begin to decrease in the late afternoon, but still gusting 30-35
kt into the evening. Winds remain around 20-30 kt on Sunday
before diminishing Sunday night.

Winds should be fairly benign for the early portion of next
week. Winds will likely shift SE overnight on Monday, and
generally stay at 5-10 knots until a potential Wednesday low
increases gust potential. VFR conditions likely for Monday and
Tuesday, although a southern pressure gradient may cause some
lower CIGs Monday night at KMRB.

&&

.MARINE...
A potent Arctic front pushes across the forecast area with a
rapid onset of Gale Force Winds expected tonight. A Gale
Warning is in effect for a few hours before daybreak to handle
this sudden onset of dangerous winds. This transitions to a
Storm Warning for the rest of Saturday where gusts up to 50 kt
are expected. Gale conditions likely persist Saturday night,
before winds diminish on Sunday to SCA levels. Sub-SCA winds
return Sunday night.

NW winds ranging 10-15 knots are expected for most of the day
Monday, and SCAs are not out of the realm of possibility as
winds continue to decrease after Saturday`s major arctic frontal
event. Gusts up to 20 knots are possible. By Tuesday, winds and
gusts should be fairly low, ranging 5-10 knots with a
southeastern directional shift occurring overnight Monday. &&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Blowout tides are expected this weekend as strong northwest
winds push water down the bay. Low Water Advisories have been
issued from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Water
levels are forecast to drop to -2FT MLLW north of the Bay Bridge
and in the upper tidal Potomac River, with -1 FT MLLW
elsewhere.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for DCZ001.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for DCZ001.
MD...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
     Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for MDZ008.
     Low Water Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday for
     MDZ008.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for MDZ003>005-016-017-502.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MDZ501.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EST Saturday
     for MDZ501-510.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for MDZ509-510.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     MDZ509.
VA...Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for VAZ053-054-501-503>508-526-527.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     VAZ025>031-053-054-501-504>506-526-527.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-055>057-502.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for VAZ503.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EST Saturday
     for VAZ503-507-508.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for VAZ036>040-
     050-051-055>057-502.
WV...Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for WVZ501-503-505-506.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for WVZ050>053-055-502-504.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for WVZ503.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EST Saturday
     for WVZ501-503-505.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ530>543.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ530.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ530.
     Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ530>543.
     Low Water Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ532-533-542.
     Low Water Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR/KJP/AVS
AVIATION...KRR./AVS
MARINE...KRR/AVS