Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

850
FXUS61 KLWX 071802
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
202 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing west of the Blue
Ridge Mountains. The system on Thursday looks slightly more
amplified which may increase the threat of strong storms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms is
  expected through this evening.

- 2) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms
are expected this evening.

As of 18Z/2PM EDT, showers and thunderstorms were steadily
developing west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Additional
development looks probable into the central VA piedmont given
towering cumulus along a stalled front. To the north, widespread
stratus remains.

Underneath mainly overcast skies, temperatures are gradually
rising through the 70s (north) and 80s (south). The expectation
is for the front to meander north to south, generally being
repositioned by convective-scale processes and where cloud
breaks occur. A weak wave of low pressure approaching western MD
drifts east tonight, giving the front a reinforcing push to the
south. A tropical air mass remains in place with precipitable
water values staying in the 2 to 2.25 inch range. The
tropospheric flow stays on the weaker side which favors slow and
rather chaotic cell motions. Latest high-resolution models
continue to focus for more concentrated convection along/west
of US-15 until early evening, then north-central VA this evening.
This generally marks where the Weather Prediction Center has a
Slight Risk for flash flooding today. With heavy rainfall
characterized by intense rainfall rates and a threat for
repeat/training convection, Flood Watches remain in effect. The
watch may need to be expanded into NoVA. The most vulnerable
spots would be areas hit by recent heavy rainfall over the past
couple of days, as well as urban areas or areas of complex
terrain. River and stream levels began low due to ongoing
drought conditions. However, these have risen in some areas
recently which makes them more vulnerable to future flooding.

On the severe weather side of the equation, moist profiles and a
lack of steeper low-level lapse rates or shear should keep the
severe weather threat low, though a couple storms may produce
locally gusty winds in the I-64 corridor.

By mid-week, the parent frontal zone is expected to reach the
Carolinas while stretching back up into the central
Appalachians. As an upstream shortwave trough continues to shear
on its eastward approach, the residual energetics from this
feature will keep convection in the forecast. Any severe threat
appears minimal, but some non-zero flood threat persists given
recent bouts of heavy rainfall mainly near the stalled front
over west-central VA. Owing to mainly east to northeasterly
surface winds, Wednesday will yield below average temperatures
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with mid 60s to mid 70s
for the mountains.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue
through the weekend.

A nearly zonal flow aloft is expected during this time while several
upper-level disturbances pass through the area. A weak boundary
overhead Wednesday will lift to the north as a warm front Thursday
allowing for more warm and humid conditions that persist through the
weekend. The lifting warm front could trigger thunderstorms
mainly east of the Blue Ridge late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning. The combination of having the boundary
overhead Wednesday along with the increase heat and humidity
late in the week will cause daily shower/thunderstorm chances,
with the highest probabilities for convection being in the
afternoon and evening hours each day. The highest coverage of
showers/t-storms may be Thursday where most guidance is showing
a strong upper-level disturbance in the quasi-zonal flow aloft.

Another weak boundary may move into the area during the weekend,
bringing more unsettled conditions. High pressure will likely
return briefly late in the weekend, then another vigorous
shortwave may approach early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly MVFR conditions (in the form of lower CIGs) were being
observed at the TAF sites as of 18Z/2PM EDT (though IAD was
still having intermittent IFR CIGs). A gradual lifting and
scattering of these clouds may result in a period of VFR late
this afternoon into this evening. Thunderstorms were developing
west of the Blue Ridge, with mid to late afternoon the most
likely period for TS near MRB/CHO. This evening, as a ripple of
low pressure glides along the stalled boundary over the area, TS
may become possible in the metros. Confidence in coverage is low.

Another round of low ceilings is expected tonight into Wednesday
morning. Winds turn more easterly through the day with some
diurnal showers and thunderstorms possible. Any stronger storm
could yield brief sub-VFR conditions, though precip chances are
much lower in the metros Wednesday and therefore not mentioned
in the TAF at this time.

VFR conditions are most likely for most of the time Thursday
through Saturday, but a few showers and thunderstorms are
possible each day, especially during the afternoon and evening
hours. There may be a higher focus for strong storms Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory caliber winds are expected across the waters given
weaker gradients through at least mid week. Any hazardous
conditions are likely going to be tied to convection, lightning,
and any accompanying gust fronts/outflows. Additional
thunderstorm chances are maintained in the afternoon/evening
forecast. Special Marine Warnings are looking less likely
through Wednesday as most storms may stay west of the waters.
Through mid-week, expect mainly east to northeasterly winds at
or below 10 knots

Southerly winds are expected Thursday and could briefly approach
SCA levels. Some strong afternoon/evening storms are possible as
a cold front approaches. A west to northwest flow is expected
Friday into Saturday. The flow may turn onshore during each
afternoon/evening. Winds should remain below SCA criteria most
of the time, but a few showers and thunderstorms are possible
each day, especially during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light onshore (east to northeast flow) the next couple days
followed by southerly flow will cause rising tides over the next
couple of days. This will likely result in near minor flooding
of vulnerable shoreline the second half of this week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ501-502-510.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ025>030-036>040-
     050-051-504-507-508.
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ050>052-055-
     502>504-506.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJL/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...BJL/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...BJL/BRO/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX