Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

662
FXUS61 KLWX 070847
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
347 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been extended through Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A return to dry and seasonable weather this weekend.

- 2) Dry weather continues next week before a colder and more
  unsettled pattern ensues by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A return to dry and seasonable weather this
weekend.

Seasonable temperatures are expected through the weekend along
with dry conditions. NW winds will gust as high as 30 to 35 mph
in the wake of the frontal passage late yesterday evening,
before diminishing to 15 mph or less tonight.

On Sunday, shortwave ridging will build over the area, while at
the surface, a lee-side trof develops and pushes east of the
area during the evening. It will be a few degs warmer owing to
higher heights and westerly downslope flow, but with noticeable
less wind.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather continues next week before a colder and more
unsettled pattern ensues by Friday.

Amplified flow within the northern stream will allow for a series of
dry cold frontal passages across the area next week. After the first
boundary pushes through late in the weekend, an additional system
races through on Tuesday. These are moisture starved air masses so
the only notable changes will be an increase in wind speeds and the
reinforcement of drier air. Through the middle of the week, skies
should largely be clear which would support abundant sunshine. Daily
high temperatures will mainly be in the 60s, with 50s across the
mountains. One exception would be on Tuesday which is the mildest
day of the period as highs return to the low 70s. Nighttime
conditions will be seasonably chilly owing to the dry air and lack
of cloud cover. Most nights should favor low temperatures in the mid
30s to mid 40s, but with localized pockets of upper 20s to low 30s
across sheltered mountain and river valeys. This may lead to some
frost/freeze concerns where the growing season continues (most spots
east of the Blue Ridge).

Toward the latter half of the next work week, global models continue
to advertise a broad deepening trough approaching from the Upper
Midwest. This eventually evolves into more of an omega block setup
with building heights over the western states and troughing across
the eastern Pacific. The global ensemble box-and-whisker plots show
a decided drop in temperatures. Cold temperatures aloft underneath
this upper low could even spread some rain or snow showers over the
Alleghenies on Friday. Uncertainty remains high though, but a
cooling trend certainly looks likely heading into Friday and next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Brisk NW winds 15G25kt and P6SM SCT050. Winds diminish tonight
to 10kt or less and clouds dissipate. Not as breezy Sun with
gusts up to 20 kt.

An extended period of VFR conditions should continue during the
early to middle portions of next week. An initial cold front exiting
the area late Sunday will yield breezy northwesterly winds on Monday
as gusts rise to around 20 to 25 knots. Winds shift to southwesterly
by Tuesday before another cold front ushers in another round of west-
northwesterlies through mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...

Brisk NW winds expected today with gusts up to around 30 kt,
diminishing to 20-25 kt tonight. Winds finally drop below SCA
Sunday afternoon. Have extended SCAs through Sunday.

Post-frontal winds on Monday will remain breezy in nature with gusts
up to around 30 knots. Small Craft Advisories are likely needed
through Monday evening before winds drop off on Tuesday given a
shift to southwesterly flow. A subsequent cold front moves
through Tuesday evening which supports another shift to
northwesterlies. While forecast gusts Wednesday are around 10 to
15 knots, these likely will be a bit higher than shown.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ535-536-538-
     542.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO
AVIATION...LFR/BRO
MARINE...LFR/BRO