Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

962
FXUS61 KLWX 101351
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
951 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is an elevated threat for the spread of wildfires today across
far western Maryland and the eastern West Virginia mountains.
Additional Special Weather Statements for fire weather may be needed
across portions of the area Saturday. Frost Advisories have
also been cancelled for the Shenandoah Valley.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temps through the weekend. Turning
hotter with the next potential chance of rain by the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temps through the
weekend. Turning hotter with the next potential chance of rain by
the middle of next week.

Not too much of a change in the overall dry weather pattern.
Synoptically, we continue to monitor a weak front that will pass
through the region late tonight into early Saturday. This will be
followed by a period of strong upper level ridging settling in for
the weekend into the early and middle part of next week.

No wetting rain is expected through Wednesday of next week, outside
of some showers across the Allegheny Mountains tonight into Saturday
morning. A sprinkle may make it`s way toward the Catoctins Saturday
morning with extra cloud cover along the front as it passes through.
The front will bring a notable wind shift from the west and
southwest today back to the north and northwest Saturday. This will
allow for tanking relative humidity values as dry high pressure over
the upper Great Lakes region moves in.

Highs today will push into the mid to upper 70s and low 80s (outside
locations directly along the bay and mountains). Lows tonight will
fall into the upper 40s and low 50s (low 40s mountains). We cool
briefly to seasonable norms with highs in the mid to upper 60s (50s
Mountains) Saturday as the front passes through. Lows will fall into
the low to mid 40s Saturday night with highs Sunday back into the
70s (outside western shore of Chesapeake Bay, southern MD, and
northeast MD).

A strengthening broad upper level ridge will allow temperatures to
reach into near record territory by the middle of next week. Highs
are currently forecasted to reach the upper 80s for much of the
forecast area next Tuesday, with highs in the lower 90s currently
forecasted for next Wednesday. Ensemble guidance continues to be
well aligned on the progression of this warm-up, but the 00/06z GFS
remains somewhat on the low end of the deterministic spectrum
regarding the exact maximum temperatures that could be reached.

Wetting rain chances may return with a cold front late next
week. This is due largely in part to a broad area of low
pressure over the Great Lakes that will push toward the East
Coast late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday next week.
Southerly winds will occasionally gusts up to 15 kts this afternoon
before shifting to the west and north Saturday as a weak cold front
passes through. Gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible with the front
Saturday into Saturday afternoon. Winds gradually decrease Saturday
night into Sunday. Some LLWS may occur within a brief window of time
late tonight into early Saturday morning (02-08z Saturday) across
the corridor.

Southwest winds will blow around 10 knots on Monday, with wind gusts
up to 20 knots possible. Winds should decrease throughout the day on
Tuesday before increasing again Wednesday. Next chance for potential
sub-VFR arrives with a cold front late week.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs continue for most of the bay and lower tidal POtomac this
afternoon and evening within southerly channeling. SCAs have
been issued for Saturday for northerly winds behind a weak cold
frontal passage.

Small Craft Advisories are likely on Monday through Tuesday morning
as 15-20 knot winds blow from the south. Gusts up to 30 knots
possible on Monday, with stronger gusts towards the central
Chesapeake Bay. SCAs may still be needed on Tuesday morning
before winds gradually decrease to 5-10 knots south by Tuesday
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Special Weather Statement has been issued for far western MD
and portions of eastern West Virginia through 7pm. This is due
to an elevated spread of wildfires given low relative humidity
values in the 20 to 25 percent range and wind gusts up to 25
mph.

Gradual warming and continued dry conditions are expected through
this afternoon as high pressure departs offshore. Winds will be
a touch stronger today out of the south, and could gust to
20-25 mph, particularly on the higher ridges. Conditions will
be dry once again, with min RH values in the 20s to the west of
the Blue Ridge, and upper 20s and 30s to the east of the Blue
Ridge.

Other than a small chance for a shower in the Alleghenies
tonight as a cold front moves through, no precipitation is
expected over the next several days. Gusty northerly winds will
develop behind the front Saturday morning, but may not overlap
as humidity values drop by afternoon. An SPS for elevated fire
danger may be needed for portions of the area.

Even warmer conditions are likely early next week as another area of
high pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic coast with limited
rain chances through Wednesday. Expecting fuels to further dry
out in this pattern, particularly given the high amounts of
solar insolation reaching the ground over the past several days.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are some daily temperature records during the April 14-15,
2026 timeframe:

A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.

                   ***TUESDAY, APRIL 14TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD HIGH (YEAR)   RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        91F (1960)            65F (2014)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          87F (1960)!           63F (2014)
Baltimore (BWI)                  91F (1941)            65F (2018)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     90F (1960)            67F (2018)
Martinsburg (MRB)                87F (1960)!           62F (2014)
Charlottesville (CHO)            90F (1945)+!          67F (1899)
Annapolis (NAK)                  90F (1941)            65F (1977)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 86F (2024)+!          64F (2014)

                  ***WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD HIGH (YEAR)   RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        89F (1941)!           65F (2023)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          87F (1967)!           62F (2023)!
Baltimore (BWI)                  88F (1941)!           65F (1941)!
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     92F (2024)            67F (1960)!
Martinsburg (MRB)                90F (1941)!           63F (1967)
Charlottesville (CHO)            92F (2024)!           68F (1941)
Annapolis (NAK)                  91F (1941)            68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 85F (1960)+!          61F (2023)+!

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/EST
AVIATION...ADS/EST
MARINE...ADS/EST