Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

628
FXUS61 KLWX 101918
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
318 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections were updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms, a few of which may
  produce damaging winds and flash flooding, are possible
  Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Heat and humidity return for Wednesday through Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms, a few of which may
produce damaging winds and flash flooding, are possible Saturday afternoon
and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Mid-high level overcast today has kept instability to a minimum
with only stratiform light rain expected for most places. Deep
convection over west central PA will try to make into northern
and northeast MD in the evening and may affect Baltimore metro
late, but likely isn`t going to be severe and neither flash
flood producing. Other convection along and south of I-64 may
affect areas south of Charlottesville this afternoon and
evening, otherwise most areas around Washington DC will remain
in between these main two potential areas of convection.
Overall, we are looking at a much better situation today than
compared to yesterday with mainly a mid-high level overcast and
sct-nmrs light showers.

Saturday...Tomorrow looks like a much more active day as a weak
cold front makes into the area and an upper shortwave-trough
moves across the area during peak heating. Expect thunderstorm
clusters to develop with very high coverage, but the coverage
of severe t-storms and instances of flooding still remain
uncertain. However, sporadic occurrences of damaging winds and
perhaps an instance of flash flooding or two are possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity return for Wednesday through
Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Surface high pressure will bring dry conditions with lower humidity
for Monday and Tuesday. However, the subtropical ridge will build
over the central CONUS Tuesday and it will spread east toward the
Mid-Atlantic for Wednesday through Friday. The center of the ridge
will be off to the west, but there will be enough subsidence for a
return of hot conditions. Heat indices  around 100 degrees with
temperatures well into the 90s are most likely for the valleys and
urban areas. It may even turn out a bit hotter with respect to heat
indices depending on what dewpoints will mix down to around peak
heating each day. It does not appear that it will be as extreme as
it was earlier in the month, but still quite hot and humid for
Wednesday through the end of next week.

With the increased heat and humidity there may be some showers and
thunderstorms. A few of those storms can be strong, but confidence
is low at this time. Perhaps the best chance for storms will be
Friday where low-level moisture may be more prominent in response to
High pressure building over the Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Numerous light showers are still expected this afternoon into
early evening, but the risk of thunderstorms seems low except at
BWI and MTN. Saturday appears to have a much greater risk of
thunderstorms, which will likely cause some temporary flight
restrictions. Isolated severe storms and flash flooding are
possible Saturday afternoon and evening.

VFR conditions are most likely for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Light flow below 10 kt is expected through the weekend, but
t-storms Saturday may pose a risk of strong winds and frequent
lightning. SMWs may be required Saturday afternoon and evening.

A west to southwest flow is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds
may gust around SCA criteria during this time since there will be a
gradient between high pressure to the south and west vs lower
pressure to the north and east.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated water levels will persist for the next couple of days
with minor coastal flooding becoming increasingly likely Monday
into Tuesday as southerly flow strengthens.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ501-509-510.
VA...None.
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ503.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJL/LFR
AVIATION...BJL/LFR
MARINE...BJL/LFR