Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

713
FXUS61 KLWX 250856
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
356 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Light snow has now reached the entire region as of 330am. There
are reports of moderate to heavy snow in parts of the central
Shenandoah Valley and Virginia Piedmont. There is no indication
of sleet or freezing rain at this time, although we do
anticipate the transition periods to be early morning for snow
to sleet and mid to late afternoon for sleet to freezing rain.
All in all, snow will continue to accumulate over the next
several hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Major winter storm will continue to impact the region
  through this evening.

- 2) Frigid temperatures this weekend and into much of next
 week.

- 3) Light accumulating snow possible midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Major winter storm will continue to impact the
region through this evening.

Light snow continues to overspread the entire region. Some
moderate to heavy snow is noted in the central Shenandoah Valley
and Virginia Piedmont. Reports that we have received have been
snow amounts between a trace in northeastern Maryland to 1.2
inches in Rockingham County, Virginia as of the past hour or
two. Snow to liquid ratios at the onset and during the first
hour or have been between 20:1 to 30:1; hence, the frigid
temperatures in the teens. We anticipate snow to become more
persistent and heavier over the next 3 to 4 hours as model
guidance is showing some good vertical motion on the way from
southwest to northeast. Snow rates would increase from 1/4 to
1/2 inch per hour as of 3am to 1 to 1.5 inches per hour during
this 3 to 4 hour window. Thoughts that toward the end of this
period, or around daybreak today, rates may hold but we will
begin seeing a transition period from all snow to a mix of snow
and sleet to perhaps all sleet by later this morning through the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain all snow in the northern,
and northwest zones as the warm layer may not have much of an
impact in transitioning this precipitation this far to the north
and west. As we get into the later daylight hours prior to
sunset, a light to moderate sleet could become more of a light
freezing rain then freezing drizzle aspect entering into this
evening. When all is said and done, the most likely area for
the highest snowfall totals is across northern MD and over VA
near and west of the Blue Ridge. A foot plus of snow remains
possible along/west of the Blue Ridge up to northern MD.

This major winter storm will have high impacts with the snow,
sleet, freezing rain, and frigid temperatures that it brings to
our region. We will be looking at several inches of snow
widespread, then a couple of inches of sleet on top of the snow,
and finally a thin sheet or light to modest accumulation of
ice. The frigid temperatures throughout the weekend and all of
next week will ensure that this wintry mess will not be going
anywhere anytime soon. On days, where we have some sunshine,
expect a quick refreeze especially after sunset.

Upslope snow will linger along and west of the Allegheny Front
into Monday morning, as will the potential for some light snow
or freezing drizzle near and east of I-95.

The combination of heavy snow and ice alongside prolonged very
cold temperatures presents a unique and significant risk to life
and property across virtually the entire region.

Monitor the latest forecasts at weather.gov/lwx/winter for
updates on this situation.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold wind chills expected through
the end of the week.

Highly amplified upper level trough east of the Rockies will
maintain very cold, well below normal temperatures through the end
of the week with daytime highs in the teens and overnight lows in
single digits with some below zero nights likely. Cold Weather
Advisories are likely every night this week with Monday night likely
being the coldest night when Extreme Cold Warnings may be needed. No
relief is in sight until the calendar turns into February.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Light accumulating snow possible midweek.

A quick moving clipper system will cross the region during the late
Wed night/early Thu time period. While models only predict trace to
0.02 inches water equivalent with this clipper system, this amount
falling with temperatures in the low teens and single digits may
cause result in SLRs as high as 40 to 1 assuming the snow is able to
reach the ground in such a dry air mass. At the very least, a
special commuting hazard statement looks likely and in the worst
case a Winter Wx Advisory may be required.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIFR conditions continue through this evening across all
terminals with periods of moderate to heavy snow. Precipitation
type will primarily be snow at KMRB while mixed precipitation
mixes in at other airports. Sleet begins mixing in first at KCHO
around 12-14Z with the metro airports mixing in between 16-18Z
with precipitation type becoming primarily sleet in the late
afternoon. Additionally, KCHO will have a greater risk of
significant freezing rain mixing in Sunday night. The freezing
rain risk continues at KDCA, KIAD, KBWI, and KMTN tonight, but
will likely occur just after 00Z.

Precip should largely end by or shortly after 06Z/1am Monday. Plan
for travel delays and cancellations that may linger into the first
half of next week.

Gusty NW winds up to 35 kt are likely Monday behind the departing
storm and gusty again Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty northeast winds expected; hence the SCA this morning. Northeast
winds shift to northwest by Monday with SCA criteria winds
possible both days. Winds will be greatest on Monday, gusting
near Gale conditions across the open waters of the Chesapeake
Bay.

Freezing spray remains likely today and Monday. Gale Watches
may be needed in future shifts for Monday.

Additional SCA`s may be needed on Tuesday as winds near criteria in
the southern portions of the waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Blowout tides are expected at times through the first half of
next week. Water levels are expected to bottom out below MLLW
through Monday as NW winds strengthen. A gradual return to
normal water levels is expected by the middle of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are some daily temperature records during the January 24-27,
2026 timeframe:

A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.

                   ***SATURDAY, JANUARY 24TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        18F (1948)             3F (1963)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          21F (2014)!           -2F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  17F (1948)             1F (1963)

Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     21F (2014)+            4F (1963)
Martinsburg (MRB)                13F (1948)            -4F (1963)+
Charlottesville (CHO)            23F (2014)+!           5F (1963)
Annapolis (NAK)                  18F (1948)             2F (1963)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 12F (1936)            -5F (1963)+

                  ***SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        16F (1897)             3F (1935)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          18F (1987)            -5F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  17F (1987)+            0F (1897)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     20F (2004)+            8F (1961)
Martinsburg (MRB)                16F (2004)+           -4F (1936)

Charlottesville (CHO)            19F (2004)+            5F (1948)
Annapolis (NAK)                  19F (1961)             3F (1987)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 15F (2004)           -15F (1935)

                 ***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        17F (1961)             5F (1948)+
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          21F (1966)             3F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  17F (1961)             2F (1961)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     19F (1961)            13F (1982)!
Martinsburg (MRB)                12F (1961)           -10F (1948)
Charlottesville (CHO)            13F (1961)             9F (1922)!
Annapolis (NAK)                  18F (1961)             5F (1905)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 15F (1961)           -12F (1948)

                 ***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        22F (1961)             6F (1935)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          22F (2003)            -9F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  21F (1918)!            3F (1987)!
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     22F (1961)!           13F (1982)!
Martinsburg (MRB)                17F (1971)            -6F (1987)

Charlottesville (CHO)            18F (1961)             0F (1982)
Annapolis (NAK)                  22F (1961)             5F (1927)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 17F (1907)!          -10F (1987)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for DCZ001.
MD...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for MDZ003>006-008-
     011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ028-030-031-
     040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for VAZ503.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for VAZ025>027-029-
     036>039-504-507-508.
WV...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for WVZ050>053-504.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for WVZ501-503-505.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for WVZ055-502-506.
MARINE...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ530>533-538>541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ534-
     537-542-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this
     afternoon for ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/CJL/CPB
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/CJL/CPB
MARINE...AVS/KLW/CJL/CPB