Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

988
FXUS61 KLWX 300822
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
322 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain over eastern Canada while its
associated upper-level trough remins overhead today. An upper-
level disturbance will pass through late tonight into Wednesday
morning before another upper-level disturbance and its
reinforcing cold front move through late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. High pressure will briefly return for Friday
before low pressure passes nearby or to our south Saturday.
High pressure will return for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Closed low pressure will remain over eastern Canada today and
its associated upper-level trough will remain overhead during
this time. A strong pressure gradient between the low over
eastern Canada and high pressure over the central CONUS will
continue to usher in gusty west to northwest winds along with
cold conditions.

The strongest gradient early this morning along with the
strongest wind field aloft appear to be near and northeast of
the Potomac River as well as the higher elevations in the Blue
Ridge Mountains/Potomac and Allegheny Highlands. The High Wind
Warning continues for the ridges and the Wind Advisory
continues for most other locations near and northeast of the
Potomac River (including the Washington and Baltimore
Metropolitan areas). Wind gusts around 45 to 55 mph are most
likely in the advised areas with wind gusts around 60 mph in the
High Wind Warning. Elsewhere, winds have subsided a bit but it
will remain blustery. There may be a brief lull in the winds
between 4 AM and 7 AM for the valleys and lower elevation in
the advised area, but even if this occurs the winds will pick up
after sunrise again.

For this afternoon, the gradient will weaken a little as the
low slowly moves off to the northeast. This will likely allow
winds to fall below warning/advisory thresholds, but it will
remain blustery and cold.

For locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, upslope
snow showers will continue through most of the morning. The
combination of snow and blowing snow will cause near blizzard
conditions with visibility around or less than one-quarter mile
at times. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through
10 AM. Additional snow showers are likely after the advisory
expires, but additional accumulations should be on the lighter
side. Having that been said, areas of blowing snow will continue
through this afternoon into tonight.

A few flurries and snow showers may spill east of the mountains
this morning into early this afternoon. Any accumulation should
be light due to plenty of low-level dry air and a downsloping
flow.

The winds will continue to gradually subside tonight as the
gradient weakens along with the loss of mixing. An upper-level
disturbance in the northern stream will move into the area late
tonight. This system will lack moisture, but most guidance shows
upward motion in the mid-levels that is aligned with saturation
and the DGZ. This will obviously fight low-level dry air, but
flurries and perhaps even a period of light snow cannot be
ruled out. As of now, it appears that the best chance will be
near/west of the Allegheny Front and also across our eastern
areas (northeast Maryland and perhaps approaching the Baltimore
and DC metro areas into southern Maryland). Increased POPS a bit
from the NBM across these areas and added scattered flurries as
well. If accumulating snow does occur, even light amounts would
have an impact due to the very cold conditions and this would
impact the Wednesday morning commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper-level disturbance will depart Wednesday morning and
any flurries or light snow should dissipate by mid-morning,
except for along/west of the Allegheny Front where some snow
showers may linger. Dry and chilly conditions are expected for
most areas later Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening behind
the departing upper-level disturbance.

Another upper-level disturbance in the northern stream along
with a reinforcing cold front will pass through the area late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This system will be a
little stronger, despite limited moisture. Another period of
light snow or flurries are possible, and again with cold
conditions any light accumulation may be impactful. For
locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope
component to the low-level wind will cause snow accumulation. A
Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for these areas. The
combination of the upslope flow, strong mid-level forcing and
saturation within the DGZ along with instability and high SLR`s
suggest that significant accumulation is possible (around 6"
possible). The Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for those
areas.

High pressure will build overhead behind this system later
Thursday through Thursday night, bringing more dry and cold
conditions. Gusty northwest winds Thursday into Thursday evening
will make it feel blustery as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will move offshore Friday and a reinforcing cold
front will pass through the area Friday night into Saturday
while low pressure passes by to the south. Friday afternoon will
be a little milder ahead of the front.

The most likely scenario for the weekend into early next week is
for dry and seasonal conditions with the low remaining far
enough to the south. However, if the low tracks farther north,
then a period of rain or wintry precipitation could occur
Saturday. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through tonight. Gusty northwest
winds will continue through this morning before gradually
diminishing this afternoon into tonight. Gusts around 35 to 45
knots are most likely into this afternoon (strongest winds most
likely through this morning).

Winds will diminish further tonight. A period of light snow or
flurries cannot be ruled out late tonight into Thursday morning
(around 9Z throug 14Z). This is not reflected in the latest TAF
with probs around 20%, but MVFR vsbys are possible in some light
snow during this time. Any accumulation will be light, but with
it being cold it would only take light accumulations for impact.

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of Wednesday through
Wednesday evening. Another upper-level disturbance may bring a
period of light snow or flurries late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. MVFR/IFR vsbys are possible during this time
and any light accumulation may have impact due to the cold
conditions.

VFR conditions are expected later Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty west to northwest winds are expected through today. A Gale
Warning remains in effect until 6 AM for all of the waters. For
the rest of today, the strongest winds will most likely be over
the upper Tidal Potomac River and northern Chesapeake Bay. A
Gale Warning continues through this afternoon for these areas
(gusts around 35 to 40 kts) and an SCA is in effect for areas to
the south. Even across these areas, gusts around 30 knots are
expected and a few gusts around 35 knots cannot be ruled out.

Winds will continue to gradually diminish over the waters
tonight, but an SCA is in effect for all of the waters this
evening and for the Bay/lower Tidal Potomac River overnight.

An SCA is in effect for the waters Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front and the SCA will likely be needed
Wednesday night as well. The cold front will pass through late
Wednesday night into Thursday and more gusty northwest winds are
expected behind the cold front. An SCA will likely be needed for
the waters with gusts around 30 knots possible. High pressure
will build overhead later Thursday night into Friday, bringing
lighter winds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strong and persistent offshore flow is expected through
tonight. Tidal blowout conditions are possible through tonight.
A Low Water Advisory may be needed.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for DCZ001.
MD...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
     Wind Advisory until noon EST today for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-
     014-503>508.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for MDZ008.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ501-502-
     509-510.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     MDZ509-510.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for MDZ509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ028-031-053-054-505-
     506.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ503-504-
     507-508.
WV...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ050>053-055.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ501>506.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     WVZ501-503-505.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530>532-535-
     538>540.
     Wind Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ530>532-538>540.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ533-534-
     536-537-541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ533-534-
     537-541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ535.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ535-536.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL
MARINE...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...