Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

585
FXUS61 KLWX 110136
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
936 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted PoPs through the night to account for radar and model
trends.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Intermittent showers & thunderstorms possible between
  Thursday evening and Saturday as a slow moving cold front
  tracks through the region.

- 2) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected
  Monday and Tuesday; showers possible along a cold front by
  the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Intermittent showers & thunderstorms possible
between Thursday evening and Saturday as a slow moving cold
front tracks through the region.

The surface cold front appears to stretch across northern PA and
OH this evening. The front will slide southward tonight while a
shortwave trough approaches from the Great Lakes and a jet
streak slides to the north. Diurnal convection largely formed
south of the CWA late this afternoon/evening, so there are only
some isolated showers/sprinkles around at 9 PM. More numerous
showers are located across the Ohio Valley ahead of the
approaching forcing. Models have been inconsistent on whether
only scattered showers survive across the mountains or if there
is a more organized area of rain. Higher rain chances, as well
as precipitation amounts, will likely be focused closer to the
Alleghenies. A lot of models don`t have any showers reaching the
Blue Ridge until 3-5 AM, although trajectories of current
activity could place some showers that far east by midnight or
so. Little lightning is being observed in the Ohio Valley, and
would expect that to be the case locally overnight as well given
little change to the minimal instability values in place.
However, with precipitable water values of 1.75-2 inches, some
locally heavy rain could occur with any convective elements.

Lows tonight will fall back into the low to mid 60s with upper
60s over central VA and southern MD. Some fog is possible west
of the Blue Ridge although low clouds may be a bit more
prevalent given the front nearby with clouds, showers, and
drizzle.

Rain showers will gradually end Friday morning as the front
sags to the south. Behind the front, instability lingers as a
shortwave trough builds over the Ohio River Valley and begins to
move through the region. This could bring additional
intermittent showers and thunderstorms through the region late
Friday and into Saturday as this system moves through. The
highest rain (and possible thunderstorm) chances on Friday
afternoon and evening will be across central Virginia. Rain will
spread north Friday night and Saturday coincident with the
shortwave trough and the surface front lifting back northward. All
told, total rainfall accumulation over the next 48-72 hours
could range between 0.5 inches to greater than 1 inch in areas
that receive multiple rounds of these intermittent
showers/storms.

Highs through the weekend range in the mid-80s across most of the
area, with humidity remaining elevated as the cold front slowly
meanders to the south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions
expected Monday and Tuesday; showers possible along a cold
front by the middle of next week.

An upper level ridge is expected build overhead during the first
half of next week supporting warmer than normal temperatures and dry
conditions. The ridge starts breaking down during the second half of
the week as a shortwave-trough digs across the Great Lakes. A cold
front is forecast to cross the area next Thursday and will likely
bring a few showers or possible thunderstorms, but the probability
of severe wx remains too low.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected amongst the terminals through this
evening with light west winds. Shower coverage will increase
overnight as a cold front approaches, although there is
uncertainty in both timing and coverage. Most models have the
highest rain chances arriving in the 06-10Z window from west to
east, although upstream radar trends suggest some showers could
arrive a few hours sooner than that if they don`t fall apart.
Went will prevailing showers instead of Prob30s based on
long term model trends along with upstream radar. A few
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but little lightning is being
observed upstream with little change to the environment
expected. However, there could be some localized convective
downpours that reduce visibility...this chance is currently too
low to include in the TAF. As the front slides through toward
daybreak, winds will shift more northerly and ceilings will
lower some. Guidance backed off on MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities compared to the previous forecast, confining these
closer to the mountains. At this time, CHO has the highest
chance of MVFR ceilings, which could last from around daybreak
Friday into the afternoon before lifting.

Elsewhere, any temporary restrictions give way to VFR
conditions later Friday morning as brief dry air moves into the
region. A leftover shower or thunderstorm is possible near KCHO
Friday afternoon and evening as the front stalls nearby. Winds
will shift to the east or southeast by Friday evening. Sub-VFR
ceilings and visibilities may return northward, along with some
rain, Friday night.

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during
the afternoon/evening hours this weekend. This will lead to
temporary reductions amongst the terminals at times otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail. South to southeast winds Saturday will
switch to the west and southwest winds Sunday at less than 15 kts.
Fair weather conditions expected during the first half of next week.
Winds turn to the north and northwest Monday and Tuesday as VFR
conditions continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Light west to northwest winds tonight shift to the north Friday
morning as a cold front crosses. There could be a brief surge of
winds behind the front, but advisories appear unlikely at this
time. Winds will become easterly Friday evening as the front
stalls to the south. Winds shift to south and southeast on
Saturday with southerly channeling yielding Small Craft Advisory
criteria winds in the afternoon. West winds on Sunday shift to
northerly on Monday, remaining below SCA criteria each day.

Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible over the
waters on both Saturday and Sunday, although SMWs are unlikely.

SCA conditions expected Monday into Tuesday on northerly winds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels remain normal through Friday night prevailing winds
remain light. Looking towards late Saturday, levels increase
again ahead of a warm front moving through the region.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/EST/SRT
MARINE...ADS/LFR/EST/SRT