Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

657
FXUS61 KLWX 100600
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The overall theme remains the same regarding expected weather
conditions the next few days (hot, humid, storm chances).
Certainty in more precise timing of waves of storms is gradually
increasing, but remains rather messy.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot and humid conditions return through Friday with a
  daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.

- 2) Drier conditions expected to start this weekend, before
  chances for showers and storms return by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions return through Friday
with a daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Some downpours are evident early this morning west of I-81 as of
06Z/2am EDT on the leading edge of a low-level moisture plume.
These will continue to press eastward through the morning with
brief downpours and lightning strikes.

There will likely be a break behind this activity during the
late morning/early afternoon hours, although some low-level
clouds may be left behind. A subtle shortwave will approach
during the afternoon. While there is some uncertainty what the
recovery period will be like, there should be some heating of
the very humid airmass (highs likely well into the 80s if not
nearing 90 where there is more sun). Even without more robust or
prolonged clearing and heating, increasing low-level moisture
beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates will result in a swift
uptick in instability/moderate CAPE. Most guidance continues to
show another round of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms moving across the area. The moderate instability
and shear of 20 to perhaps up to 30 kt could lead to a few
stronger storms with gusty winds and hail. Given the quick
uptick in instability, it may not take very long for showers and
storms to redevelop in the wake of the morning activity.

Heights will rise tonight in the wake of the shortwave. This,
plus the loss of daytime heating, will result in a minimum of
rain chances, but it will remain muggy with lows in the upper
60s and lower 70s. Patchy fog is possible.

Low-level southwesterly flow will continue to advect a hot and
humid airmass into the area for Thursday and Friday, with
temperatures climbing into the 90s and dewpoints reaching into
the upper 60s and lower 70s. This will result in heat indices
climbing into the upper 90s to low 100s on both Thursday and
Friday afternoon, likely nearing Heat Advisory criteria in some
locations. Westerly downsloping winds may tend to lower dew
points during peak heating, however.

Upper-level ridging will be centered over the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys Thursday, with several models also showing a shortwave
disturbance passing through the top of the ridge. How this
disturbance evolves will have a large impact on our forecast
locally. If the timing/placement of any such disturbance is
offset from peak heating, large scale subsidence could limit
convective initiation. However, if it were to approach at/near
peak heating, we could have a much greater coverage of
thunderstorms. Upstream convection will likely have a large
impact on how that disturbance evolves, so confidence in the
forecast details on Thursday is lower than normal. Westerly
downslope flow could inhibit convection as well, with the best
initiation point closer to a surface trough or the bay breeze
(I-95 corridor). What models are in good agreement about is that
the background environment will be highly unstable. There will
also be enough dry air in the mid levels to support strong
downdrafts (high DCAPE), and just enough shear (around 20 kt)
to give storms some weak organization. Such an environmental
setup is common in many of our more impactful summer
pulse/multicell severe thunderstorm events. As a result, there
appears to be a conditional threat for severe thunderstorms on
Thursday, some of which could produce very strong winds if they
do indeed develop and tap into the background environment.

That threat for severe thunderstorms likely continues on Friday
as a shortwave disturbance passes to our northwest through the
Great Lakes causing the upper ridge to break down and a surface
cold front to approach from the northwest. With greater synoptic
scale forcing, confidence in the occurrence of storms is higher
on Friday, but instability might be slightly less (but still
moderately strong). More widespread and potentially organized
strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible as a result.

Machine learning guidance is very bullish on the severe
thunderstorm threat for both Thursday and Friday. We will
continue to monitor this potential threat over the upcoming
days. Stay tuned to later forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions expected to start this weekend,
before chances for showers and storms return by early next week.

Drier air moves into the region on Saturday in the wake of a cold
front bringing down heat risk overall as dewpoints drop back
down to the upper 50s and low 60s. Temperatures will still
remain elevated overall with highs in the upper 80s and lower
90s likely.

Upper-level zonal flow temporarily takes over through the
weekend, although a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out Sunday as a cold front approaches from the
west. There is uncertainty in exactly when this front gets here.

Starting early next week, a deep upper-level trough starts to
track through the Great Lakes region and towards the East Coast,
bringing back elevated humidity as a strong cold front moves
through the region. Surface low pressure will likely move
through the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing more
chances for widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Converting PROB30s to TEMPOs given increasing confidence in
brief showers this morning. Confidence for thunder is low, but
there will likely be at least some lightning around. Anticipate
AMDs through the morning as TS location/timing becomes clearer.

Lower ceilings (MVFR) likely linger into the midday hours.
There will be a break in the precipitation, though. A second
disturbance could bring another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon, and may follow rather
quickly (1 to 3 hours) after the morning activity. Otherwise,
SW flow is expected through the day, generally 10 kt or less.

Some patchy fog may develop tonight in areas that receive more
appreciable rain and see some clearing/lighter winds.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Thursday and
Friday. Thunderstorm initiation/coverage is very uncertain
Thursday afternoon and evening, but any storm could contain hail
and strong wind gusts. There is a higher chance of strong to
severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening as a cold
front approaches. Winds will be fairly light out of the west or
southwest both days.

VFR conditions are predominantly expected through the weekend,
with some reduced conditions possible on Sunday evening
associated with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Winds flow out of the NW before shifting S Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow remains in place through this evening. Small
Craft Advisories may need to be extended/reissued in somewhat
marginal but stubborn southerly channeling through tonight. In
addition, heavier showers and embedded thunderstorms likely
reach the waters by mid morning, with another round possible a
few hours later in the mid to later afternoon. Activity should
clear the waters early this evening. SMWs may be needed, mainly
this afternoon.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected on both Thursday and Friday. A
surface pressure trough lingering near the waters may cause some
variability between south and west. Special Marine Warnings may
be needed on both Thursday and Friday afternoon/evening as
thunderstorms move over the waters. There is a higher chance of
more widespread storms Friday, but the overall environment is
favorable for very gusty storms either day.

SCA conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front Friday
night into Saturday morning. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions are
expected through most of the weekend. Marginal SCAs may occur
late Sunday in southerly flow as a cold front approaches.
Northwest winds may become variable for a time before ultimately
shifting southeast by Monday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures are expected to soar to as much as 15 to 20 degrees
above average Thursday and Friday. This approaches or exceeds
daily record values at some sites.

Below is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures
for June 11th and 12th (Thursday and Friday).

=================================================================
            June 11th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows
=================================================================
Site            Record High                 Record Warm Low
DCA          101 F (set in 1911)      74 F (set in 2020 +6 others)
IAD           95 F (set in 2016)           72 F (set in 2005)
BWI           99 F (set in 1911)           75 F (set in 1914)
DMH          100 F (set in 1984)           79 F (set in 1984)
NAK           96 F (set in 2000)           79 F (set in 1973)
HGR           97 F (set in 1911)           73 F (set in 2005)
MRB          101 F (set in 1911)      71 F (set in 1927 and 1922)
CHO           99 F (set in 1911)           76 F (set in 2020)

=================================================================
            June 12th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows
=================================================================
Site            Record High                 Record Warm Low
DCA     95 F (set in 2017 +6 others)       77 F (set in 2015)
IAD           96 F (set in 1986)           72 F (set in 1986)
BWI     96 F (set in 1986 and 1914)        77 F (set in 1947)
DMH     96 F (set in 2025 +2 others)  77 F (set in 2017 and 2015)
NAK           98 F (set in 1914)      77 F (set in 2000 and 1973)
HGR     92 F (set in 2017 +5 others)  71 F (set in 2010 +5 others)
MRB     97 F (set in 1938 and 1933)        73 F (set in 1914)
CHO           98 F (set in 1914)      72 F (set in 1947 +2 others)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ531>533-537-
     539>541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO/DHOF/KJP
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...ADS/BRO/DHOF/KJP
CLIMATE...DHOF