Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

782
FXUS61 KLWX 101400 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1000 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Flood Watch for potential flash flooding has been issued for
Garrett and western Allegany Counties in western Maryland, as
well as for western Mineral County in West Virginia.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms, a few of which may
  produce damaging winds and torrential rain, are possible
  today.

- 2) Warming temperatures and minimal precipitation chances
  expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms, a few of
which may produce damaging winds and torrential rain, are
possible today.

24-hr observational trends indicate dewpoints running at least 4
degs lower than at this time yesterday and sfc winds from the
NW as opposed to the SW advecting lower PW air into the area.
Blended TPW product shows PW values half to three quarters of an
inch lower than at this time yesterday. As a result,
thunderstorm coverage today is expected to be significantly less
than it was yesterday. Some moisture advection is expected over
the mountains on westerly winds, but coverage east of the
mountains will be questionable. As with any summer storms,
downburst winds are always a possibility, especially today with
ample sunshine and progged DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, but
again any t-storm threat today would be isolated.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming temperatures and minimal precipitation
chances expected next week.

Next week starts out cooler and drier compared to this week
with high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s. Surface high
pressure building over the region keeps precipitation chances at
a minimum, however, upper level ridging pivoting from the
central CONUS brings increasing temperatures through midweek.
High temperatures rise into the 80s for most on Tuesday with
only those at higher elevations staying in the 70s. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s areawide. On Wednesday and Thursday,
high temperatures rise into the 90s for most with high dew
points leading to heat indices nearing triple digits for the
I-95 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and a few strong thunderstorms could develop and move
across our region this afternoon and evening. A westerly wind
could suppress a lot of convection, but areas that do encounter
a thunderstorms could have damaging winds and heavy rain.

A cold front moves through on Saturday which yields a shift to
northwesterly winds. These eventually turn more easterly on
Sunday into Monday as the boundary slides farther to the south.
Despite some weekend shower chances, mainly VFR conditions are
expected.

VFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday with surface high
pressure bringing dry conditions. East/southeast winds on Monday
shift to southerly on Tuesday, becoming light and variable
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
A few strong thunderstorms could move across our waters this
afternoon and evening; thus, short terms marine warnings could
be warranted. A westerly wind could suppress some thunderstorms,
but any that do move across the waters could make the water
rough for small craft.

East/southeast winds on Monday shift to southerly on Tuesday,
remaining below SCA criteria both days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies will rise again tonight and Saturday night to perhaps
give Annapolis another opportunity to reach Minor Flood. A
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Annapolis,
even though the trend is down over the next few hours. Other
Coastal Flood Advisories could soon follow later today for
Annapolis and perhaps one or two others.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Flood Watch through this evening for MDZ501-509-510.
VA...None.
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ503.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/LFR/KLW/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/LFR/KLW/SRT
MARINE...ADS/AVS/LFR/KLW/SRT