Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

798
FXUS61 KLWX 021856
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Not much change to the CAD positions this afternoon, thus will
continue to track developing convection in the Alleghenies and
central VA through this evening. Low clouds and fog tonight for
areas underneath the CAD.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Some thunderstorms and drastic temperature gradient in
  place today, with well above normal temperatures likely Friday
  and Saturday.

- 2) A strong cold front Sunday brings widespread rainfall and a
  drop in temperatures for early to middle portions of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Some thunderstorms and drastic temperature
gradient in place today, with well above normal temperatures
likely Friday and Saturday.

The CAD is squarely across the area this afternoon, approximately
from Cumberland to Winchester to Culpeper east across most of
southern MD. To the south, sunnier skies and warm southerly winds
have brought temps up to the 70s to low 80s. In the CAD, temps are
stuck in the upper 40s to low 50s.

A good cu field has developed in the warmer airmass, with a few
showers already noted in the higher terrain and central Shenandoah
Valley. Scattered showers are likely to continue developing outside
the CAD through this evening, and a few thunderstorms are possible
as there is sufficient instability and moisture (dew points in the
low 60s). There is a well defined thermal/convergent zone stretching
from Charlottesville to the Northern Neck that could help to
initiate additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to
early evening in that part of central VA.

Convection wanes by late evening then we likely see a period of
drizzle and fog develop overnight tonight. This is generally
expected within the CAD with a focus on the northern Shenandoah
Valley and along/north of US-50. Some of the fog could be dense come
daybreak Friday morning.

The stalled boundary over the area will quickly lift north late
Friday morning as warm southerly return flow strengthens across the
region. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the low 80s on
Friday, and then mid 80s on Saturday. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon Friday and Saturday, mostly
aided by terrain influences and the warm airmass in place. Chances
for rain are around 20-30 percent each day across northwestern
portions of the forecast area, though most of the area likely
remains mostly dry through Saturday evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front Sunday brings widespread
rainfall and a drop in temperatures for early to middle portions
of next week.

A strong cold front passing through the region Sunday will bring
widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. The probability
for thunderstorms is low since instability will be limited by plenty
of cloud cover and rain that will limit heating. Most guidance shows
the front moving through from northwest to southeast Sunday morning
into Sunday afternoon. Rain should end behind the front later Sunday
morning toward the Allegheny Mountains and Sunday afternoon for the
metro areas into southern MD. Exact timing is still uncertain.

There will be a strong wind field aloft on the warm side of the
boundary, but the probability for severe storms remain low due to
the limited instability.

An upper-level trough will build overhead behind the cold front for
early next week. This will cause below normal temperatures during
this time. While the growing season has not officially started, some
frost/freeze concerns are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday night
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR CIGs in place across most of the area underneath a CAD wedge,
with the exception of CHO that is in the warm sector in breezy south
winds. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms around
CHO this afternoon, though the other terminals likely only see a few
showers, if any.

IFR to possibly LIFR CIGs tonight as a drizzle sets in after
midnight. Some dense fog is possible late tonight into Friday
morning. Conditions will quickly improve late Friday morning as
southerly winds scour out the low clouds.

VFR conditions then likely prevail Friday afternoon through
Saturday. Southerly winds gusting around 20-25kt possible each
afternoon.

A cold front will bring widespread showers and subVFR cigs/vsbys
Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Drier air and VFR conditions
will follow behind the front later Sunday afternoon through early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
East to northeast winds continue through tonight, with some periods
of stronger gusts around 20 knots possible across the northern bay
waters where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. A few hours of
stronger east winds are possible across most of the waters that
might necessitate additional SCAs. Marine dense fog is possible late
tonight into Friday morning, with visibility of 1 SM or less.

Winds turn southerly for Friday and Saturday. Small Craft Advisories
may be needed at times Friday into the start of the weekend.

A cold front will pass through the waters Sunday afternoon. Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed for the south/southwest
winds. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through early
next week behind the front for northwest winds as well.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-538.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR/BJL
AVIATION...KRR/BJL
MARINE...KRR/BJL