Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

146
FXUS61 KLWX 011504
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1004 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Quick 10AM update: Dropped a lot of the Cold Weather Advisories
as wind chills gradually rise above zero late this morning, but
kept the advisory in the vicinity of the northern Shenandoah
Valley (mainly for surrounding higher elevations), and the DC
and Baltimore metro areas where winds are a bit stronger keeping
wind chills just below zero. The Extreme Cold Warnings remain in
effect with no changes as wind chills here remain -10 to -20.

Previous discussion...
Bluster and bitterly cold conditions are being observed this
morning as intense low pressure spirals offshore. Another wave
of low pressure will pass to the south late Tuesday into
Wednesday, with some guidance indicating advisory-level snow
potential. Confidence has increased regarding upslope snow and
another Arctic outbreak late in the week. Lastly, went ahead and
added the Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island to the Low Water
Advisory for today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Below to well below normal temperatures will persist
  through the week.

- 2) A clipper-type low may bring light snow Tuesday night.

- 3) Upslope snow and another cold outbreak are possible by the
  end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below to well below normal temperatures will persist
through the end of the week.

With a negative AO/NAO pattern holding firm, colder than normal
temperatures will persist over the Mid-Atlantic for the
foreseeable future. After this weekend`s coastal low departs,
temperatures will moderate slightly for the new work week.

Blustery conditions are expected today with gusts of 35 to 40
mph common. This, combined with air temperatures reaching into
the 20s will keep wind chills in the single digits on either
side of zero (well below zero for the mountains) for most of the
day. Cold weather headlines remain in effect through this
morning. Additional cold weather headlines will be needed across
northern areas tonight into Monday morning.

Temperatures will likely rise above freezing for the first time
in at least a week for some on Monday, mainly over the Virginia
Piedmont. Temperatures could then approach or exceed 40 degrees
on Tuesday across the piedmont and coastal plain. Mountain
locales will have a relative "warmup" as well, but still remain
below freezing.

A clipper-type low will pass to our south late Tuesday into
Wednesday. More on the precipitation threat with this low is
discussed below. The passage of this system will halt the upward
trend in temperatures for the second half of the week.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A clipper-type low may bring light snow mid week.

Starting early in the week, amidst a brief warmup, attention will
turn to the next potential winter weather maker Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A piece of shortwave energy aloft will dive out of the
northern Plains late Monday through Tuesday. There will also be a
piece of southern stream energy moving out of the Baja region during
this same time. These two systems phase nearby late Tuesday over the
Arklatex region before quickly moving east into Tuesday night, with
a weak surface low developing as a result. Reinforcing Arctic
air moves back into the region late Tuesday night, and while
not as cold as the past week (yet), it will be plenty cold for
snow overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, this
system is lacking substantial moisture this go around. Most
ensemble guidance has the area receiving a few hundredths of an
inch to maybe a tenth of an inch of QPF (though some are dry,
and a few have over a quarter of an inch). With an Arctic air
mass still in place, SLRs could be a bit higher than normal, so
that could equate to an advisory-level event for portions of the
area if those QPF amounts are realized. However, there is still
a question if there will be any QPF with this system east of
the mountains. That remains to be seen, and will be the main
focus of future forecasts - to nail that down and hopefully come
to some model consensus. Another question is just how far south
the low tracks. Right now, model guidance favors
central/southern portions of the forecast area, but that could
change in future forecasts as well.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Upslope snow and another cold outbreak are possible
by the end of next week.

Long range ensembles are in good agreement regarding a large
trough and strong reinforcing Arctic boundary crossing the
region at the end of the week. Favorable upslope trajectories
may result in accumulating snow, with probabilities for 2 and 4
inches of snow from the NBM already nosing into the 30-50
percent range along and west of the Allegheny Front.

Farther to the east, depending on how much moisture is
associated with the mid/upper system as it passes, there could
be a wave of snow showers accompanied by gusty winds.

Blustery conditions and another round of frigid temperatures are
quite possible in the wake of this system heading into next
weekend, so stay tuned for updates later this week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is expected to prevail through tonight. Winds will be
quite blustery today out of the N/NW. Gusts of 30-35 kts are
likely through 21Z, possibly lingering a bit later for eastern
TAF sites. LLWS is possible tonight.

NW breezes gradually subside through Monday, becoming light
Monday night into Tuesday before eventually switching to S.
Clouds increase Tuesday into Tuesday night as low pressure
approaches from the OH/TN Valley. Sub-VFR is possible in -SN
Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the extent of restrictions or
accumulations are uncertain at this time as most guidance shows
a quick-moving light precip event. Winds shift back to the NW
Wednesday-Thursday with gusts to around 15 kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Sustained winds of 20 to 30 knots (30 to 35 knots over the
middle Chesapeake Bay) are expected, along with gusts of 35 to
40 knots (around 45 knots over the middle Chesapeake Bay).

The trajectory of the winds channeling down the Chesapeake Bay
as well as the 12- to 24-hour duration will also result in
pretty impressive waves for this region - 2 to 4 feet over the
narrower waterways, to 4 to 7 feet in the wider waters off
southern Maryland.

The combination of prolonged winds and waves with frigid
temperatures will result in freezing spray over ice-free waters
this morning. Freezing spray headlines are in effect where
National Ice Center analysis shows ice-free waters. The
heaviest freezing spray will be over the wider waters off
southern Maryland where the highest winds/waves and most
favorable fetch are expected.

Winds will gradually subside tonight into Monday. Light winds
will become southerly late Tuesday. A clipper-type low will
scoot by to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some light
snow may accompany this system, followed by a shift in winds
back to the northwest.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong northerly to northwesterly winds will lead to blowout
tide conditions today. Due to widespread ice buildup, this
could result in some property damage (docks, moorings, boats,
etc.) as blocks of ice are pushed away from the shore.

Low water issues could persist into Monday, though subsiding
winds should allow a rebound in tide levels early next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for DCZ001.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ011-
     013-014-502>506.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ501-
     509-510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ027-
     028-053-054-506-526-527.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ025-
     026-503-504-507-508.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ050-
     055-502-504.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ501-
     503-505-506.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530>543.
     Low Water Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     Low Water Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ533-541-
     542.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/CJL