Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

738
FXUS61 KLWX 250104
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
904 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes were made to the forecast with light winds and dry
conditions observed across the area. A strong cold front brings
the next chance for hazardous weather Thursday evening and into
the overnight with a chance for severe thunderstorms. Fire
weather conditions remain possible this weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong cold front will bring the possibility
  thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..A strong cold front will bring the possibility
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

High pressure overhead today slides offshore Wednesday. Return flow
on the backside of the high brings increasing warmth and moisture to
the region. Highs in the 50s today will be well into the 70s come
Thursday. Overall conditions are expected to remain dry through
early Thursday afternoon.

A strong cold front will approach the area from the OH Valley
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Ahead of the front
conditions could become favorable for scattered thunderstorms to
move across the Potomac Highlands and parts of the Alleghenies
Thursday evening. There is still uncertainty regarding timing, but
an earlier arrival would allow convection to feed off the unstable
airmass ahead of it. There will be sufficient shear in place to
support organized thunderstorms. SPC maintains the Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) over portions of western MD for Thursday
evening/night. While some thunderstorms likely reach east of the
mountains, the severe threat diminishes quickly as the atmosphere
stabilizes due to loss of daytime heating.

The front slowly sags south into the area Thursday night into
Friday, bringing widespread showers to the area. As the front takes
on more of an anafrontal phasing, there could be some lingering rain
on the backside that persists through Friday afternoon. Conditions
clear out from north to south Friday evening.

Cooler than normal temperatures return this weekend in the wake of a
departing cold frontal boundary. Canadian high pressure will build
back over the region yielding highs in the mid 40s and low 50s (30s
mountains) Saturday and overnight lows in the mid 20s and low 30s
Saturday night. The surface high will slide offshore late Sunday
allowing temperatures to warm back into the 50s and 60s. Southerly
return flow ensues for the new workweek with spotty shower chances
over the mountains/far northern sections of the forecast area Monday
and Tuesday as a piece of shortwave energy passes through.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail today through Thursday. A cold front slowly
crosses the region Thursday night into Friday, with sub-VFR
conditions likely due to passing showers and low clouds. Conditions
improve behind the front Friday evening/night.

No aviation hazards this weekend with Canadian high pressure
building overhead. Next chance for sub-VFR conditions looks to
arrive by the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building over the region will maintain sub-SCA
conditions through Wednesday. Southerly channeling could bring winds
close to SCA conditions Wednesday night over the open waters of the
Chesapeake Bay. SCA conditions are becoming likely at some point
Thursday into Friday as a strong cold front moves across the
region. Sub-SCA winds return over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather may become an issue over portions of the area Saturday
through Monday pending on how much rainfall we see with the front.
Minimum RH values will fall into the 25 to 35 percent range each
afternoon with wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph. Right now, the greatest
threat appears to be over the severe drought area of central VA and
the Shenandoah Valley.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Increasing southerly winds will cause tide levels to increase
across the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River on Wednesday. It is
possible some sensitive locations in the middle to upper
Chesapeake Bay reach minor flood stage, especially during the
afternoon high tide cycle.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KRR/EST
AVIATION...KRR/EST
MARINE...KRR/EST