Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

656
FXUS61 KLWX 070135
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
935 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for parts
of Northeast MD, central MD, and northeastern VA. Afternoon
heavy showers and strong thunderstorms earlier concentrated
over Northeast MD, parts of the VA Piedmont, and western MD have
since weakened and/or moved to now becoming located over the
eastern WV Panhandle, northeastern VA and central MD. A few
other big storms with heavy rain are over eastern portions of
the VA Piedmont. This activity should gradually weaken
overnight, primarily after midnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms could cause some
  areas to flash flood or flood during the latter part of this
  evening into the early overnight before weakening. The next
  round of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday.

- 2) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue as a cold
  front brings precipitation and the return of seasonable
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms could
cause some areas to flash flood or flood during the latter part
of this evening into the early overnight before weakening. The
next round of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday.

A backdoor front has been sagging southwestward across Northeast
Maryland, into central parts of Maryland, into Washington D.C.
and parts of northeastern Virginia. This front, along with
preluded instability, has allowed for several batches of heavy
showers and strong thunderstorms with frequent lightning and
very heavy rainfall to develop during the early half of this
evening. There are a few Flash Flood and Flood Warnings
currently out for another few hours. Rainfall rates has been in
the range of 2 to 3 inches per hour with rain amounts in the 1
to 3 inches and still raining in some places. This activity
should weaken and slowly move south with the front through the
midnight hour. However, locations anywhere near and along the
I-95 corridor, US 50, I-97, I-66, and I-70 should heed caution
should you encounter one of these torrential downpours. You
should slow your speed down since it is at night and any flooded
roads may be temporarily hidden due to darkness. Flood Watches
remain in effect through midnight tonight.

The pattern aloft features a very broad positively- tilted
trough stretching from the Upper Great Lakes down toward the
Ozarks. As this trough edges eastward, a series of impulses will
continue to ride over the mentioned surface boundary. There is
some hint of this upper trough weakening, but its remnants would
slowly migrate eastward to the Atlantic coast during the next
couple days. All in all, this will lend itself toward additional
active weather days over the Mid- Atlantic region.


Where this frontal zone lies on Tuesday will dictate the level
of threat for additional active weather. The forecast suggests
this boundary should lie along I-66/US-50 during the morning
hours before sagging southward to the Virginia/North Carolina
border by the night. Thus, there is some risk for additional
convection which includes a few severe storms and further flash
flooding. Marginal Risk areas are being advertised for both the
severe and flood threats with this system. Mainly overcast skies
and northeasterly onshore winds should hold temperatures below
average into Tuesday. Forecast highs will be in the upper 70s to
mid 80s, with upper 60s to 70s for mountain locales.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue as a
cold front brings precipitation and the return of seasonable
temperatures.

An approaching cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to the
forecast area Thursday into Friday. Hot and humid conditions
will lead to moderate instability. This along with modest shear
may result in at least isolated severe potential. With plenty
of moisture in the atmosphere, heavy rainfall will also be
possible. The cold front slowly pushes across the forecast area
Friday night and into Saturday with seasonable temperatures
expected in its wake. High temperatures for the weekend will be
in the upper 70s to 80s with overnight low temperates dropping
into the 60s to low 70s.

Heading into early next week, there are signs at a potentially
amplified pattern which could bring a return to storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR to MVFR conditions will prevail at terminals where heavy
showers and thunderstorms exist over the next couple of hours.
Winds could gust to 30 to 40 knots in any strong thunderstorms.

For Tuesday, the main frontal zone slowly begins to pull south
of I-66/US-50. However, its close proximity will keep showers
and thunderstorms in the picture again. Additional storm-driven
restrictions are possible in this environment. Expect mainly
northeasterly winds over the area as this boundary continues
pushing southward.

Southwest winds on Thursday blow 5 to 10 knots across the terminals.
Showers and thunderstorms may result in flight restrictions with
reduced ceilings and visibilities. Winds shift to westerly on
Friday, gusting up to 15 knots in the afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms continue to be possible Friday afternoon. Winds shift
to northwest in the wake of a frontal passage Saturday, gusting
around 15 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak summertime gradients will largely keep the marine zones
free of Small Craft Advisories. However, additional days of
active convection should lead to a greater threat of Special
Marine Warnings. Besides the gusty thunderstorm winds, other
hazards would include frequent lightning and very heavy rain.
The most active period is likely through Tuesday given a frontal
zone nearby. As this boundary sags southward to the Carolinas,
daily convection becomes less widespread for Wednesday.

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms lead to a risk for SMWs
Thursday and Friday. Southwest winds on Thursday shift to westerly
on Friday, remaining mainly below SCA criteria each day. On
Saturday, winds shift to northwesterly in the wake of a frontal
passage.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light onshore (east to northeast flow) the next couple days
followed by southerly flow will cause rising tides later this
week. This may result in near minor flooding of vulnerable
shoreline the second half of this week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for DCZ001.
MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ003>006-008-011-
     013-014-016>018-501>508-510.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ025>031-037>040-
     050-051-053>057-501-502-505>507-526-527.
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504-506.
MARINE...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/KLW/DHOF