Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

128
FXUS61 KLWX 050152
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
852 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Dense Fog Advisory has been posted for parts of central
Maryland and northern Virginia. Expansions of this advisory are
likely overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-1) A meandering front will bring highly variable temperatures,
 occasional rain/spotty t-storm chances, and nighttime fog
 through Friday.


-2) Near record breaking temperatures are possible for some this
 weekend. A weak cold front will bring increased chances for
 thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday before stalling nearby
 early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..A meandering front will bring highly variable
temperatures, occasional rain/storm chances, and nighttime fog
through Friday.

Not too much change in the mid and late week period as a front
continues to hopscotch across the region. As of 01Z/8PM EST, the
front was draped from near Somerset PA south to near Staunton VA,
then turned east near Arrington VA and stretched to near Crisfield
MD. Many areas were in the 40s, with a few low to mid 50s south
and west of the front.

A few waves of showers are anticipated overnight, first this
evening near southern MD through 10 PM, with another batch
moving toward Highland County VA into the central Shenandoah
Valley accompanied by a few lightning flashes. Additional shower
activity is likely to develop near northern/western MD during
the overnight hours as isentropic lift over the front increases.
Otherwise, areas of drizzle and fog (some dense) will linger
given abundant moisture and light winds.

Surface high pressure/upper-level ridging build in from the
southeast U.S. Thursday as a shortwave trough/low pressure
system move from the mid-MS River Valley into the Great Lakes
region. This will shunt the front back to the north allowing for
a bit more scrubbing of the residual cool air wedge east of the
mountains. Hi-res/deterministic guidance continues to struggle
in regards to the placement of the front and to how much cool
air is scoured away given light and variable winds. Once again
it looks as if northeast/central MD will remain the coolest with
warmer conditions south/west into the Shenandoah Valley/Piedmont.
Highs will range from the low to mid 50s north/east of
Baltimore to low/mid 70s across the Shenandoah Valley/central VA
Piedmont where more sunshine will prevail. Any shower chances
will remain north of I-70 with some thunderstorm activity across
the Alleghenies/Potomac Highlands late Thursday afternoon and
evening as shortwave energy passes through. Some of this
activity may spread east in weakened form toward evening.

As the low passes off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night,
high pressure moving toward the Canadian Maritimes will likely
shove the front back south, which could result in the
reemergence of low clouds, fog, and cooler temperatures. There
remains a very high spread in model forecast temperatures on
Friday as the backdoor cold front will separate an increasingly
warm airmass building northward from the southeastern U.S. A 30
to 40 degree spread in temperatures could exist from northeast
MD to south-central VA. Comparatively, precipitation chances
will be lower Friday and Friday night as ridging builds further
north into the region. However, there still could be some light
showers or drizzle near and northeast of the frontal boundary.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Near record breaking temperatures are possible for
some this weekend. A weak cold front will bring increased
chances for thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday before stalling
nearby early next week.

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions look to develop this weekend
as the entire area finally enters the warm sector. This is due
largely in part to the stalled boundary/warm front lifting further
north and deep southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching weak cold
front. This front will drop in from the northwest Saturday afternoon
and evening bringing with it showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms. CSU probabilities continue to highlight areas mainly
west of the Blue Ridge with a 5 to 14 percent chance of severe
weather. This corresponds with 10 percent probs from CIPS over the
same area. With that said, one or two storms could be strong with
locally gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Highs Saturday will
range from the upper 60s over northeast MD to around 80 from the
Potomac River points south and west. Lows Saturday night will
fall back into the 50s.

By Sunday, the front will drift into central VA and southern MD
bringing additional shower/t-storm chances to these areas. Outside
of these locations, no change in sensible weather is expected
with little wind shift either. The front will then wash out over
the region bringing continued shower chances and temperature
volatility into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR conditions (mostly CIGs) continue for most this evening
outside of KCHO where these lower CIGs should spread in by
02Z-03Z. V/LIFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible overnight with a
potential for dense fog. Other than some drizzle, most of the
shower activity looks to avoid most of the TAF sites except
perhaps CHO briefly late this evening, and MRB overnight.

Thursday may see improvements from MRB/IAD/DCA points south with
BWI/MTN hanging on to low cigs most of the day. More showers and
perhaps even an embedded thunderstorm will cross the northern
terminals (i.e MRB/HGR) during the late afternoon and evening. The
southern extent of low ceilings is much more uncertain Thursday
night through Friday night, although the highest chances remain
across MRB/BWI/MTN. Rain chances trend downward Friday given
high pressure building from the south.

Additional rain chances are expected this weekend as a weak cold
front drifts into the region. This front will bring increased
southwesterly flow along with a few thunderstorms especially west of
the corridor terminals Saturday afternoon. The front will be
slow-moving late Saturday into Sunday before washing out south
and east of the area early next week. This could result in an
extended period of sub-VFR conditions as a result. SW winds gust
around 15-20 knots on Saturday, tapering off to around 10-15
knots by Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A quasi-stationary boundary will remain south of the waters
tonight before lifting back to the north Thursday, dropping
south Friday, then lifting north heading into the weekend. A
cold front will try to cross the waters late Saturday into
Sunday before washing out over the region early next week.

Winds will remain below SCA levels through Friday night with
marine dense fog possible each night into the morning hours.

Over the next few days, the northern Chesapeake Bay may largely
keep east to northeast winds, while areas south of Washington DC
and the Bay Bridge could flip to southerly at times. Winds
should remain below advisory criteria.

Winds will gust to near SCA criteria out of the SW on Saturday.
However, thinking that the continued cold waters in comparison to
warmer air temperatures could confine the threat primarily to the
northern/middle waterways, with less wind over the open bay waters.
Winds taper off on Sunday, with SCAs unlikely at this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for MDZ503>506.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for VAZ039-040-051-
     053-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/EST
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/EST
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/EST