Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

993
FXUS61 KLWX 122044
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
444 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for much of the
forecast area through 9 PM. A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for the northern Bay and Upper Tidal Potomac through 10
PM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot and humid conditions persist today with another round
  of strong to severe thunderstorms expected.

- 2) Dry conditions are expected behind a cold front
on Saturday, before chances for severe thunderstorms return on
Sunday.

- 3) A cooler and drier pattern that settles over the region
early next week will give way to a return to warm and humid
conditions and the potential for strong thunderstorms on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions persist today with another round
of strong to severe thunderstorms expected.

Temperatures have climbed into the mid to upper 90s this
afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s. Heat
Advisories remain in effect through 8 PM for much of the area.

Thunderstorms have developed over the last hour or two within a
surface trough to the east of the Blue Ridge, primarily to the
south of I-66/US-50. This activity is expected to gradually
drift off toward the south and east over time. Additional
thunderstorms are also forming to the west of the mountains
across West Virginia and are expected to progress eastward over
time. Coverage of showers and storms has been much lesser to the
north of I-66/US-50, where downslope westerly flow to the
north/west of a surface trough axis has led to deeper mixing,
decreasing dewpoints, lesser instability, and lesser surface
convergence.

The activity on radar currently is mostly cellular in nature,
but there may be a tendency for some upscale growth over time as
cold pools expand and mature. Two rounds of storms could be
possible to the east of the Blue Ridge/south of I-66/US-50 with
the ongoing activity and the potential for the thunderstorms
over WV to move through later this evening. The potential for
this to occur will be greater the further south one goes. The
threat for thunderstorms should gradually wind down through the
evening as the system`s cold front moves through from northwest
to southeast.

In terms of hazards, damaging winds should be the primary
threat with a high DCAPE environment in place (values in excess
of 1000 J/kg). SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for
much of the forecast area through 9 PM (excluding northern MD
to the west of Baltimore County, as well as northern portions of
the WV Panhandle). The threat for flooding looks to be
relatively low, but an isolated instance or two can`t be
completely ruled out if cell mergers lead to a localized
prolonged period of heavy rain (best chance for this would be
across Central Virginia toward Fredericksburg).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions are expected behind a cold front
on Saturday, before chances for severe thunderstorms return on
Sunday.

Mostly sunny skies and less humid conditions are expected
tomorrow in the wake of tonight`s cold frontal passage. It will
still be hot, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90, but it
will feel noticeably cooler and less humid as dewpoints drop
into upper 50s and low 60s.

By Sunday another shortwave disturbance will rotate around the
base of the broad upper low located to our north, tracking
through the Ohio Valley. As this shortwave approaches, the low-
level mass response ahead of it will draw deeper moisture
northward into our area within southerly flow. Dewpoints will
climb into the lower 70s once again while height falls
simultaneously occur aloft. The net result of that will be
building instability. This instability will overlap with
increasing wind fields aloft. The combination of increasing
instability, shear, and large scale forcing for ascent ahead of
the shortwave and an approaching cold front will lead to the
development of thunderstorms during the afternoon, some of which
could be severe. There`s still a fair amount of spread in
guidance with respect to the timing and exact placement of the
storms, but as of now the threat looks to be greatest to the
east of the Blue Ridge. SPC currently has much of the forecast
area outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on
Sunday. The system`s cold front will move through Sunday night,
advecting cooler and drier air into the region, which will bring
the threat for severe thunderstorms to an end.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cooler and drier pattern that settles over the region
early next week will give way to a return to warm and humid
conditions and the potential for strong thunderstorms on
Thursday.

Upper level troughing is forecast to build over the region early
next week and remain in place through Wednesday. This pattern will
bring much cooler conditions to the region with daily high
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s favored Monday
through Wednesday. A combination of mid level disturbances and
moisture will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy with on and off
chances for showers.

Model ensembles have the troughy pattern starting to break down on
Thursday allowing warm and humid conditions to return to the region.
Increasing moisture and temperatures along with a potential frontal
passage will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday. Depending on the strength of the upper level shortwave
driving the cold front, there could be a risk for strong
thunderstorms capable of producing some gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Storms are ongoing across the region currently. One round has
formed within a surface trough to the east of the Blue Ridge and
has been impacting IAD/DCA. This activity is expected to
progress off toward the south and east over the next couple
hours. Another potential round of storms could occur as storms
form further west over WV and then spread eastward into this
evening. Any thunderstorms should winds down this evening as a
cold front moves through and drier air starts to work in from
the northwest.

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected on Saturday, with winds
generally light out of the west to northwest. Prevailing VFR
conditions are expected again on Sunday, but an additional round of
thunderstorms may be possible during the afternoon and evening
hours. Winds will generally be out of the south to southwest outside
of any thunderstorms.

Mid level broken to overcast clouds are favored over all terminals
Monday through Wednesday of next week. At this time, cloud decks are
likely to be VFR, but some lower clouds will be possible at
times.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have turned to out of the west across northern portions of
the Bay and the Upper Tidal Potomac. Gusts to around 20 knots
have been occurring in those locations, so Small Craft
Advisories have been issued through this evening. SMWs may be
needed over the waters late this afternoon into this evening as
storms move over the waters. Storms should progress off to the
south and east by late this evening, bringing the threat for
SMWs to an end. Winds shift to out of the northwest behind a
cold front later tonight.

Light and variable winds are expected over the waters tomorrow.
Winds turn out of the south on Sunday. SCAs will likely be
needed within southerly flow during the day on Sunday. SMWs may
also potentially be needed as thunderstorms move over the waters
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

SubSCA conditions are most likely Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures are expected to soar to as much as 15 to 20 degrees
above average today. This approaches or exceeds daily record
values at some sites.

Below is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures
for today (June 12th).

=================================================================
            June 12th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows
=================================================================
Site            Record High                 Record Warm Low
DCA     95 F (set in 2017 +6 others)       77 F (set in 2015)
IAD           96 F (set in 1986)           72 F (set in 1986)
BWI     96 F (set in 1986 and 1914)        77 F (set in 1947)
DMH     96 F (set in 2025 +2 others)  77 F (set in 2017 and 2015)
NAK           98 F (set in 1914)      77 F (set in 2000 and 1973)
HGR     92 F (set in 2017 +5 others)  71 F (set in 2010 +5 others)
MRB     97 F (set in 1938 and 1933)        73 F (set in 1914)
CHO           98 F (set in 1914)      72 F (set in 1947 +2 others)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ003>006-008-
     011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ025>031-
     036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-538-539.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJP/JMG
AVIATION...KJP/JMG
MARINE...KJP/JMG