Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS61 KLWX 220754
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
354 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
May be issuing Coastal Flood Advisories within the hour based on
latest trend in the tidal anomalies for Annapolis and Havre de
Grace; otherwise, no other changes expected to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warming temperatures mid to late week as a cold front
  drops into the area and stalls.

- 2) Cooler air moves in this weekend, along with chances for
  showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming temperatures mid to late week as a cold
front drops into the area and stalls.

A cold front will move across the region today. Rainfall will be
little compared to the drought conditions that we have been
experiencing over the past couple of weeks. Rain amounts could
average 0.10 to maybe 0.25 inch and could be focused along and
north of I-66 and US 50. A thunderstorm or two could also occur
around mid-morning to midday given the lift from the front and
some instability. A linger storm in a few spots in the afternoon
too. Small hail, brief downpours and a wind gust over 45 mph
seems the greater concerns with any thunderstorms.

Otherwise through the rest of the week, a warming trend in
temperatures expected even after today`s front drops through the
area and stalls just to our south. High temperatures could push
back into the lower to middle 80s by Friday ahead of another
system likely to bring a return of rain by the second half of
Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler air moves in this weekend, along with
chances for showers.

A complex upper-level pattern will unfold across the region
this weekend as upper ridging in place breaks down while two
large upper lows (one over the Northern Rockies, one over the
Northern Atlantic) start to interact. High pressure will
strengthen off to our northeast, which will force a backdoor cold
front to push further southwestward into our forecast area.
Meanwhile, a decaying disturbance associated with the western
upper low will track overhead. Showers appear likely this
weekend as a result, with the greatest chances occurring on
Saturday as the aforementioned upper disturbance moves through.

There`s still some uncertainty with respect to the ultimate
positioning of the front, and as a result, there`s still a wide
range of potential temperatures. Locations on the warm side of
the boundary may approach 70, while locations on the cool side
will likely be stuck in the 40s and 50s. Chances for cooler
conditions will be greater off to the north and east, while
chances for warmer temperatures will increase toward the
southwest. Chances for showers decrease further on Monday, with
temperatures expected to fall near seasonable levels (highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through Friday. Some temporary sub-VFR
conditions are possible with a weak cold front today. The front
could bring brief -SHRA/-TSRA at the terminals this morning into
this afternoon. Some places near CHO and areas to the east could
end up dry but low confidence in pinpointing these areas as the
front will be on its way across our region. Winds will be
southwest becoming northwest with frontal passage this
afternoon. Gusts will remain between 15 to 20 kts at the TAF
sites. Some LLWS also possible as S/SW flow increases aloft
ahead of the boundary.

Additional WAA showers are possible by Friday afternoon which
could be accompanied by a few restrictions. Winds will be out
of the NW on Thursday.

VFR conditions and light east to northeasterly winds are
expected on Friday. Sub-VFR ceilings appear likely on Saturday,
along with easterly winds and showers.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs continue through this morning with moderate southerly
channeling expected behind a warm front and ahead of a cold
front. Sub- SCA level winds are expected this afternoon through
Friday with winds out of the SW to NW as a cold front crosses
and stalls. This front may bring a few showers and thunderstorms
mainly this afternoon.

Sub-SCA level NW to E/NE winds are expected over the waters
Thursday/Friday. SCA-level gusts appear possible in easterly
flow on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH will likely continue to rise across the Alleghenies today
while holding steady elsewhere. RH may drop in around 40
percent south of I-64 this afternoon. Winds will likely gust 20
to 30 mph as they shift to out of the west along and west of
I-81 and near and south of I-64 this afternoon. Given the
downsloping flow, RH could drop more than forecast in the I-64
corridor (to near 30 percent) resulting in a locally elevated
fire weather threat in those areas. Light rain amounts are
expected (generally 0.10" or less) near and north of I-66/US-50
today, with additional rain potential Friday into the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies continue to rise and thus we could be issuing
Coastal Flood Advisories shortly at Annapolis and Havre de
Grace. Will look into this closer in the next hour or so.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/DHOF/CJL/KJP
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/KJP