Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

694
FXUS61 KLWX 141344
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
944 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continuing to lower dew points and humidity given observational
trends behind the cold front. Have further lowered dew points
this afternoon, but will hold off on SPS as winds are forecast
to diminish later this morning. No other changes were made to
the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong cold front will arrive Monday, bringing strong
  winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms. Colder
  temperatures return through mid-week.

- 2) Dry, gusty winds continue across the area through this
  afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front will arrive Monday,
bringing strong winds and the potential for severe
thunderstorms. Colder temperatures return through mid-week.

At the onset on Sunday evening/night, the local area will be
within a cold air damming wedge signature with high pressure off
the New England coast and a frontal boundary over the
southeastern U.S. The expectation is for this boundary to
quickly lift poleward as a warm front on Sunday night. At the
same time, some overrunning shower activity is likely.

By Monday, the Mid-Atlantic should be in the warm sector of a
powerful low pressure system over Lake Huron. A deep upper
trough pushing east of the Mississippi Valley will be taking on
a negative tilt. Winds throughout the atmosphere will be very
strong, along with notable low-level wind shear (though more
speed than direction). Dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s
and modest mid level lapse rates will limit instability but
there should still be enough to support convection. The
thermodynamic profile could be one of the primary factors into
just how significant the severe weather is. There is some threat
for some leading cellular development in the warm sector which
could pose a wind and tornado risk. Then, a squall line is
likely to develop ahead of the sharp cold front. Damaging winds,
some potentially significant, will be a threat with the squall
line. A QLCS tornado threat could also be present, although the
shear vectors will be more parallel to the line vs. the more
favorable perpendicular. Seasonally high precipitable water will
also result in heavy rain, although storms will be moving
quickly. Timing is still a bit uncertain, but the most favorable
conditions combined with afternoon/early evening timing are
projected east of the Blue Ridge. The Storm Prediction Center
has a broad Day 3 Enhanced Risk area along/east of I-81, with a
Slight Risk off to the west.

Besides the convective winds, gradient winds will also be
strong immediately ahead of and behind the front which could
cause additional localized tree damage and/or complicate
recovery efforts. Cold air will be rushing in immediately
following the frontal passage. At a minimum, the Allegheny
Mountains will change to snow for a time in upslope conditions.
It remains uncertain if any post-frontal precipitation lingers
to the east long enough to change over.

Cold and windy conditions linger into Tuesday with the upper trough
overhead. Tuesday night will likely be the coldest night of the
stretch with widespread temperatures in the teens and 20s. A warming
trend will then take place the remainder of the week as surface high
pressure slides off the coast.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry, gusty winds continue across the area
through this afternoon.

A cold front continues to trek eastward across the region.
Besides a period of gusty westerly winds, the downsloping
component has yielded milder temperatures along with low dew
points/relative humidities. As of 07Z/3 AM, surface observations
across western/central Maryland as well as the eastern West
Virginia panhandle show dew points around 7 to 12 degrees (15 to
20 percent RH). Given the time of night, such lower RH values
are quite unusual as most nights humidities reach their maximum
values. With current trends in mind, the low temperature
forecast of upper 30s to mid 40s might be a tad optimistic.

As the trough and associated low pressure system swing across
New England, residual gusty westerly winds continue over the
Mid-Atlantic region. Most high-resolution models favor keeping a
brunt of the stronger winds north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Thus,
have kept wind gusts around 20 to 30 mph, locally up to 40 mph
across the Allegheny ridges. These should gradually weaken ahead
of sundown as convective mixing slowly abates. High pressure
briefly returns with tonight`s lows in the 30s.

Winds remain on the breezy side into Sunday, but with a shift to
southeasterlies as the region settles into a cold air damming
setup. Wind gusts will again be around 20 to 30 mph, but with
higher humidity aided by the onshore component to the wind. This
also comes with an expanding shield of warm advection rain which
arrives later in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front continues to push toward the east this morning. The
strongest winds remain at KMRB where westerlies continue to gust
between 25 to 35 knots. Other terminals have largely remained
gust-free early this morning. However, in the net, this lighter
surface wind continues to contribute to ample low-level wind
shear (250-260 degrees/40 to 50 knots in the lowest 2,000 feet).
This should gradually abate by around 10-11Z this morning.
Otherwise, the big story today will be another round of gusty
westerly winds this afternoon, generally around 25 knots or so.
Conditions do remain VFR through much of the weekend before rain
showers arrive by Sunday evening. Some restrictions are possible
into the night with prevailing winds out of the southeast.

A strong cold front is forecast to cross the area Monday
afternoon with showers and thunderstorms and strong winds in
both the pre-frontal and post-frontal environment. Severe
thunderstorms are likely with damaging winds the primary
threat along with a few tornadoes. Expect restrictions related
to any of this convection. Behind the cold front, VFR conditions
return for Tuesday and Wednesday. Initial winds will be
westerly before shifting to southerly by mid-week as high
pressure slowly departs off the Atlantic coast.

&&

.MARINE...
In response to the passing cold front, residual gusts will
maintain Small Craft Advisories across the Chesapeake Bay into
the lower tidal Potomac. These slowly drop off from south to
north before another round of Small Craft Advisories go into
effect through 6 PM this evening. After a reprieve this evening
through Sunday morning, southeasterlies will increase in
strength.

SCA conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday night, with
a period of gale conditions likely Monday afternoon through
Monday evening in both the pre-frontal and post-frontal
environment even outside of thunderstorms. Widespread severe
thunderstorms are also expected Monday afternoon, which more
than likely will require Special Marine Warnings. The threat of
thunderstorms wind down late Monday behind the strong cold
front. Winds turn lighter by mid-week in response to high
pressure.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will be the driest day regionwide, behind the frontal
passage from earlier this morning. RH values could drop into
the upper teens to 20s across much of the area. Winds will be
lower compared to Friday, but will remain somewhat elevated,
especially along/north of the Interstate 66 corridor, where
20-35 mph wind gusts can be expected. A Special Weather
Statement may be needed. Given wetting rains on Thursday, fuel
moistures might be elevated enough to quell any widespread fire
danger.

Gusty winds but increasing RHs are forecast Sunday ahead of another
front, which looks to bring wetting rains Sunday evening/night.
There is less of a threat Sunday, but any ongoing fires could feel
the impacts of some gusty southeasterly flow (20-30 mph gusts).
Showers and thunderstorms look likely on Monday before strong west-
northwesterly winds overspread the area Monday evening into
Tuesday. High pressure returns by the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding seems likely Monday afternoon in strong
southerly flow ahead of a strong cold front forecast to cross
the area late Monday afternoon or early evening. Have raised
total water levels similar to STOFS output which performed very
well on Friday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/LFR/BRO
AVIATION...LFR/BRO
MARINE...LFR/BRO