Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

350
FXUS61 KLWX 050125
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
925 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No severe weather threat is expected overnight. An isolated shower
and perhaps a t-storm is possible heading into Saturday morning as
the cold front slowly sags south.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Shower and thunderstorm chances remain Saturday as the front as
slowly sags south through region.

- 2) Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures and lower
  humidity Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Shower and thunderstorm chances remain Saturday as the front as
slowly sags south through region.

Severe T-Storm Watches have been allowed to expire early as the
remaining cluster of shower and thunderstorm activity exits
southeast VA. Looking at mostly dry conditions overnight with a
spotty shower or t-storm as the cold front sags into the region.
Severe weather is not expected as most of the energy has been zapped
from the storms earlier this evening. A wind shift out of the west
and northwest will also help diminish the chances for storms and
keep anything that does pop relatively isolated across the area.

Expect scattered to broken mid and high level clouds to pass through
with an increase in cloud cover heading toward daybreak as the front
sags through. The front itself is currently draped to the north of
the PA/MD line. Hi-res guidance has the front in the vicinity of the
Potomac River Saturday morning and down along the I-64 corridor or
just south of that area Saturday afternoon. As a result, expect a
few spotty showers in and around the front Saturday morning with a
couple of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon as a wave of energy
pushes across the front. Any severe threat appears low with a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for portions of the southern
Shenandaoh Valley and central VA Piedmont region. Damaging winds
will be the main threat with storms along with frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Highs Saturday will range from the upper 70s and low 80s along
the PA/MD line to around 90 just south of Charlottesville, VA.
Lows Saturday night will fall into the upper 50s and mid 60s as
drier air punches into the region. Humidity will slowly lower
throughout the day as the front pushes south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures and
lower humidity Sunday into early next week.

Sfc high pressure over the GL will track over the Mid-Atlantic Sun
into Mon, with accompanying mid-level dry air that will bring down
humidity and t-storm chances. Daily highs drop to the low 80s, along
with drier dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. These conditions
likely persist through Tue as high pressure drifts south.

As high pressure dominates, expect temps to slowly creep back up to
the mid-to-upper 80s beginning Tue and Wed. Entering into the
midweek, broad upper-level ridging begins to build over the southern
Plains, with a deep trough forming to the north over Nova Scotia.
This will create a frontal boundary tracking across the East Coast
sometime during this period, potentially beginning Wed and into Thu.
This could create chances for a few showers or storms to form along
the front as it tracks through, along with increasing humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected throughout the weekend
into early next week. Some temporary reductions may be noted
early Saturday morning due to pockets of low to mid level
clouds, patchy fog, and spotty showers working through the
region. Confidence is low on lower cigs with a best guess of
BKN-OVC 030-050kft cigs across most of the corridor heading into
early Saturday morning. Of course this will be dictated by the
placement of front with winds changing toward more of a
west/northwest direction overnight and northerly direction
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Additional
restrictions due to thunderstorms may be noted between 19-
23z/3-7pm across CHO and RIC as a the front heads further south
and a disturbance pivots through. Went with PROB30s here and
also at DCA/IAD where a couple of leftover showers may push
through. No shower or thunderstorm activity is expected for
aviators SUnday and Monday next week as weather conditions
continue to improve.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Labor Day Monday and Tuesday
with winds shifting from the north/northwest back to the south
heading into midweek. Next chance for thunderstorms arrives with a
cold front late next week.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through the upcoming holiday weekend.
Generally light flow is expected into this weekend, though NW gusts
could approach marginal SCA levels tonight into Saturday.

Winds could approach SCA levels Sunday evening before diminishing
back below thresholds by Monday morning. Northwesterly winds Monday
shift southerly Tuesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EST/SRT
AVIATION...EST/SRT
MARINE...EST/SRT