Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

087
FXUS61 KLWX 230016
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
816 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast package. Expect a leftover
shower over the Alleghenies this evening. Additional isolated
to scattered showers & t-storms across portions of the area
Thursday into the weekend.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
 1) Warm temperatures remain through Friday with afternoon and
evening spotty shower and thunderstorm chances.

 2) Cooler temperatures this weekend with increased shower chances
as as a wavering front and weak area of low pressure push
through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm temperatures remain through Friday with
afternoon and evening spotty shower and thunderstorm chances.

A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped nearby through the
remainder of the workweek. This front will oscillate over
western and north-central MD Thursday into Friday before
settling south toward the Potomac River and northern VA for the
upcoming weekend. As a result, expect a tapered temperature
forecast (north to south) with continued diurnal chances for
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most locations
will remain dry with the highest confidence for showers and
t-storms tied to the terrain and locations directly along the
boundary. The severe threat remains low although gusty winds
cannot be ruled out with storms, especially Friday given the
added shear/instability around the waffling front. Areas that
do see showers and thunderstorms could see rain amounts of a
tenth to a quarter of an inch. Coverage remains scattered
despite the uptick amongst the guidance on precipitation
amounts. Either way, we`ll take what we can get given the
worsening drought conditions across the entire region.

Look for highs in the low 80s over central VA, southern MD, and the
downslope areas of the Allegheny Mountains. Locations further
north into central and northeast MD, the western shore of the
Bay, and Catoctins will likely see highs in the 70s on both
Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will fall back into the 50s
with upper over northeast MD.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures this weekend with increase
shower chances as as a wavering front and weak area of low
pressure push through.

Widespread rain showers expected Saturday as a weakening disturbance
and cold front move in. Precip amounts have trended high especially
within the EPS members compared to the GEFS/GEPS. Will continue to
monitor.

There`s still some uncertainty with respect to the ultimate
positioning of the front, and as a result, there`s still a wide
range of potential temps. Locations on the warm side of the boundary
may approach 70, while locations on the cool side will likely be
stuck in the 40s and 50s. Chances for cooler conditions will be
greater off to the north and east (central and northeast MD),
while chances for warmer temps will increase toward the
southwest (central VA). Chances for showers decrease further on
Monday, with temps expected to fall near seasonable levels
(highs in the upper 60s to low 70s). Another round of rain
possible Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions continue through Friday. Cannot rule out
some brief sub-VFR reductions Thursday and Friday afternoon due to
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms. The main threat with
storms would be locally gusty winds up to 35 kts, especially Friday
afternoon given the warm front lifting back through. Winds will
remain out of the west this evening with occasional gusts up to
15 kts. Winds will decrease tonight before switching back to
the northwest Thursday at 5 to 15 kts. Winds turn to the east
and southeast Friday and Saturday bisecting the corridor based
upon the placement of the stalled frontal boundary. Speeds will
remain less than 15 kts.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely Saturday with easterly onshore flow.
Scattered to numerous shower can be expected given the stalled front
nearby. Similar conditions are expected Sunday before VFR conditions
return early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds are expected through Friday. Winds will remain
out of the west this evening before switching to the northwest
Thursday and east/northeast Friday into the weekend. A few
isolated/scattered showers and t-storms may cross the waters
Thursday and Friday afternoons. More scattered to numerous showers
are expected this weekend with onshore easterly flow. SCAs may be
needed for portions of the waters in onshore flow on both Saturday
and Sunday. Sub-SCA level winds return early next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CPB/EST
AVIATION...CPB/EST
MARINE...CPB/EST