Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

440
FXUS61 KLWX 050903
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
403 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
New Extreme Cold Watches issued for the Allegheny Mountains for
Saturday morning. Heavy Freezing Spray Watch issued for the
waters south of Drum Point and Cobb Island for Saturday through
Saturday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near-Blizzard conditions possible in the Alleghenies late
  Friday morning through Saturday morning.

- Increasing confidence for wind and additional cold weather
  headlines Friday night into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-Blizzard conditions possible in the
Alleghenies late Friday morning through Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Deepening trough over the northern Mid-Atlantic will provide
ample lift to generate heavy snow showers across the mountains
Friday into Saturday. In addition, increasing instability
through the DGZ Friday evening and very high SLRs will generate
squalls. Strengthening winds will also lead to significant
blowing and drifting snow. The strongest winds on Saturday don`t
overlap with the best lift and instability, so don`t see a need
for a Blizzard Watch. Squalls will likely continue through the
day Saturday given the strength of the low-level flow and high
Froude numbers. There will also be snow showers east of the Blue
Ridge Mountains Friday afternoon and early evening well ahead
of the Arctic frontal passage associated with a lead shortwave-
trough. Anywhere from a dusting to up to an inch of snow is
possible east of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Very high confidence for wind and additional
cold weather headlines Friday night into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Very tight pressure gradient develops late Friday night through
Saturday between a rapidly deepening area of low pressure over
the western Atlantic and strong high pressure over the western
Great Lakes. Expect a sudden onset of strong winds after 06Z Sat
that moves rapidly from west to east.

Model soundings indicate mixing to around 925 mb on Saturday
with all guidance, except the Canadian, indicating winds of
40-45 kt in that layer. The 00Z ECMWF continues to have the
strongest 925 mb winds with values up to 50 kt. Even below that
layer, winds around 950 mb or 0.5 km AGL are between 40-45 kt
indicating a high confidence of a solid Wind Advisory event
almost everywhere, except down by Albemarle and Nelson
Counties. The high elevations will definitely need a High Wind
Watch. Believe there is also a decent shot that winds at lower
elevations could peak around 50 kt for a short period of time
Saturday morning, mainly between 09Z and 15Z where 925 mb low-
level jet is passing over northern VA.

Extreme Cold Watches have been issued for the Allegheny
Mountains with additional Cold Weather Advisories likely needed
for the northern half of the fcst area.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Snow showers likely Friday afternoon with temporary flight
restrictions likely. Very windy conditions expected Saturday
with frequent gusts of 40-45 kt and peak gusts up to 50 kt for a
short period of time, mainly between 09Z and 15Z Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

Gale Watches continue and new Heavy Freezing Spray Watches were
issued for the waters south of Drum Point and Cobb Island where
ice coverage is more limited.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Blowout tides are expected late Friday night through Sunday night.
Water levels as low as -2 ft MLLW are possible. Low Water Advisories
may be required. The ice covered waters of the northern/middle
bay and tidal Potomac could result in the potential for damage
to docks, moorings and etc., especially when blowout tides
result in significantly lower water levels.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Gale Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night
     for MDZ008.
     Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
     morning for MDZ501-509-510.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     morning for MDZ509-510.
VA...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
     morning for VAZ503.
WV...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
     morning for WVZ501-503-505.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     morning for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night
     for ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ533-
     534-537-543.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from Saturday morning through late
     Saturday night for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/SRT
MARINE...LFR/SRT