Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

635
FXUS61 KLWX 031523
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1023 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisories were allowed to expire at 10 AM, but
some isolated icy spots remain possible across more vulnerable
elevated surfaces like overpasses and bridges. Global guidance
continues to indicate waffling temperature forecasts depending
on frontal position for the second half of the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Freezing rain may result in slippery surfaces across
  portions of the area this morning.

- 2) Much warmer temperatures are possible Wednesday through the
  weekend, but will be accompanied by daily precipitation
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Freezing rain may result in slippery surfaces
across portions of the area this morning.

Aside from locations along/north of I-70, have let the previous
Winter Weather Advisories expire as planned at 10 AM. A majority
of these areas have seen temperatures rise into the 33 to 36
degree range. Although some icy patches are not out of the
question across more vulnerable locations like overpasses and
bridges, the threat has largely waned over. Looking at the
latest radar imagery, a couple swaths of light showers are
evident. One tracking toward I-95 in central Virginia and
another shield of showers pushing across the eastern West
Virginia panhandle. For those areas to the north, temperatures
remain closer to freezing which will allow Winter Weather
Advisories to persist until 1 PM this afternoon.

As the surface high starts to retreat today, temperatures
should gradually rise to above freezing areawide by the early
afternoon. However, low clouds will likely stick around and
winds will be fairly light, so temperatures will struggle to
rise into the 40s across most of the area. The central
Shenandoah Valley and central Potomac Highlands have the best
chance to break into the 50s.

An additional wave of rain will likely cross the area this
evening, with some lingering showers possible overnight.
Southerly winds will likely be in place by this time which will
hold temperatures fairly steady in the 40s. In between, some fog
may develop.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Much warmer temperatures are possible Wednesday
through the weekend, but will be accompanied by daily precipitation
chances.

After a mostly cold month of February, the month of March will offer
the potential for a lengthy period of well above average
temperatures. This does come with some caveats given the wavy
frontal zone won`t be venturing too far northward. The boundary
will likely still bisect the area Wednesday, leading to a
temperature gradient from the lower 50s to upper 60s from north
to south. There does seem to be some agreement it will lift
north Thursday ahead of low pressure in the Ohio Valley, but
could drop back to the south Friday as this low passes to the
northeast. Ensemble temperature forecasts show sizeable spread
as this boundary nears the region late in the week. For example,
at Washington Reagan National Airport, the National Blend of
Models (NBM) 95th percentile forecast is 77 degrees, while the
5th percentile is 55 degrees. Similar uncertainty looms into the
weekend as well.

As mentioned above, the forecast does call for a rapid warm up as
mid/upper heights build in response to an eastern U.S. ridge.
However, this does come with multiple opportunities for showers and
even thunderstorms at times as shortwave troughs or surface lows
interact with the wavering boundary. With active weather across
the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley, residual shower
activity should push east toward the northeastern U.S. While the
region is in the northward expanding warm sector, instability
will increase leading to a few thunderstorms over the region. At
this time, there are relatively greater (as in 20 percent)
chances of thunderstorms Thursday and Saturday.

With the backdoor front in play late in the week, a marked north-
south oriented temperature gradient is expected somewhere near the
area. Given water temperatures off the New England coast in the mid
30s to low 40s, any trajectories from this cold maritime air mass
would certainly bring colder conditions than currently forecasted.
There are some signs a cooler airmass may try to push south from
Canada late in the weekend, but there is still a lot of
uncertainty whether the boundary can completely push through the
area or it just stalls out again. For those on the warm side of
the boundary, widespread 70s would be expected. Details will
likely change so keep checking back for the latest temperature
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As expected, ceilings have fallen this morning with all sites
running between IFR and LIFR. Based on 15Z observations,
overcast skies are in place with ceilings between 200 and 500
feet. Temperatures will likely rise solidly above freezing by
mid morning, and steadier rain will likely taper off some by
midday but there could still be drizzle and mist in place. Low
ceilings likely continue through the day as NE/E winds are slow
to become southerly. An additional wave of rain is likely this
evening, then guidance seems to be split whether IFR ceilings
persist or the southerly winds are able to bump them into the
MVFR category (or even VFR at CHO).

Thereafter, details become much more uncertain as a front wavers
near the region. Conditions will return to MVFR if not VFR for a
time Wednesday, but additional rain showers will be possible. If
the boundary remains overhead, low ceilings or fog could return
Wednesday night.

VFR conditions are likely much of the time on Thursday and Friday as
a warm front remains north of the Mason-Dixon Line. This does come
with some opportunities for showers which may aid in a few
restrictions at times. The current wind forecast shows mainly south
to southwesterly flow through Friday before turning easterly by
Friday night. However, if the front to the north returns southward
more quickly, more northern TAF sites could see a north to
northeasterly wind earlier.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will slowly lift northward through tonight, with
northeasterly winds eventually becoming southerly. Assuming the
front lifts through, there could be a period of near-advisory
winds tonight, but confidence is low. Wind direction may flip
back to the east or northeast Wednesday and Wednesday night if
the boundary slips back to the south. Fog and precipitation
could also reduce visibility at times near and north of the
boundary.

Sub-advisory caliber winds are expected Thursday and Friday.
Vertical mixing should be more limited as warmer air overrides
the chilly waters below. Expect mainly south to southwesterly
winds Thursday before turning more easterly by Friday in
response to a backdoor cold front. If the front lifts northward
Saturday, gusty southerly winds may develop.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     MDZ003>006-501-502-507-510.
VA...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     WVZ051>053-503-504.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO
AVIATION...ADS/BRO
MARINE...ADS/BRO