Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

441
FXUS61 KLWX 301831
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
131 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for much of the Mid-
Atlantic tonight. Extreme Cold Watches have been issued for the
Allegheny and Potomac Highlands as well as the central and
northern Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains Saturday night into
Sunday. Gale Watches/Heavy Freezing Spray Watches have been
upgraded to warnings.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) An Arctic air mass will remain in place through the weekend
  with dangerously cold wind chills as an intense low pressure
  passes offshore.

- 2) A brief period of above-freezing temperatures is expected
  early next week before potential Ohio River Valley system
  brings back the potential for a wintry mix.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An Arctic air mass will remain in place through the weekend
with dangerously cold wind chills as an intense low pressure passes
offshore.

Wind chill values tonight will be again close to zero, so cold
weather headlines remain in effect. The coldest wind chill
values are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning which
latest forecast has values reaching solidly into the advisory
range and in the warning category in the Allegheny/Potomac
Highlands and central/northern VA Blue Ridge where watches have
been issued. This is due to both CAA on the backside of offshore
low pressure as well as blustery winds as the low passes by.

The latest guidance is clustering fairly well on the track of
intense low pressure expected to develop off the Carolina coast.
The track keeps the system well offshore. Probs of 1+ inch of
snow are hovering at 30-50% across parts of central VA to
southern MD. The best chance for a dusting of snow seems to be
over Nelson County VA during the day Saturday, and into southern
MD Saturday night where there could be some bay-effect flurries
or snow showers as well. The main impact from this storm will
be the cold and wind with gusts in the 35-40 mph range creating
bitter to extreme cold wind chills.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A brief period of above-freezing temperatures
is expected early next week before potential Ohio River Valley
system brings back the potential for a wintry mix.

High pressure coming from the southwest will temporarily bring
temperatures up to the low-30s on Monday, marking the first time
that the region could see above-freezing temperatures in over a
week. These borderline conditions could introduce a wintry mix as a
shortwave trough coming from the Ohio River Valley starts to move
through the region on Wednesday. Exact precipitation type during
this time could still change as exact temperature forecasts become
more refined. Currently have primarily snow forecast for the
area with a rain/snow mix along and south of I-64. Will continue
to monitor this slight winter storm threat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period except
perhaps at KCHO where MVFR CIGs and flurries are possible
overnight into Saturday. NW winds 5-10 kts except at KCHO where
winds will be more E/NE into the evening. Winds will be more N
this weekend becoming gusty beginning late Sat.

Predominantly VFR conditions up to Tuesday evening, where a
potential low pressure wave could bring low ceilings and degraded
visibility. A period of sustained 15 kt winds NW can be expected
over the weekend, with gusts up to 30 knots possible across all
terminals on Sunday. Lighter winds expected starting Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are expected to be relatively light as a surface ridge
builds across into tonight. Winds begin to strengthen heading
into Saturday and especially Saturday night as low pressure
deepens offshore. Gale conditions appear likely for portions of
the waters Saturday night into Sunday. Freezing spray also
appears likely especially for the wider waters south of Drum
Point where the winds will be strongest, the fetch longer and
the waves bigger.

Wind gusts should start to decrease after Sunday`s coastal low moves
northward, then remain in the 5-10 knot range later in the week.
Still a potential for a Small Craft Advisory next week, especially
on Monday if the system persists in the area. Winds up to 25
knots could still impact the central-south Chesapeake Bay region
into Monday afternoon.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As low pressure rapidly strengthens offshore Saturday night
through Monday, strong northerly winds may lead to blowout tide
conditions. Some guidance indicates tides as low as 2 to 3 ft
below MLLW (lowest Sunday). Due to widespread ice buildup, this
could result in some property damage (docks, moorings, etc.) as
block ice is pushed away from the shore.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for DCZ001.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for MDZ006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for MDZ003>005-501-502-509-510.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for VAZ039-040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-
     526-527.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for VAZ503-504-507-508.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for VAZ503-504-507-508.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ530.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM Saturday to midnight EST Sunday night
     for ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ531-
     535-536-538-539.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ531>533-537-539>541.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ534-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/SRT
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/SRT