Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

310
FXUS61 KLWX 310000
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
800 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
Monitoring for potential coastal flooding Sunday night into
early Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Slightly cooler and continued dry during the weekend.

- 2) Low rain chances through Thursday with a gradual warming
  trend and thunderstorm chances for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Slightly cooler and continued dry during the
weekend.

Skies will remain relatively clear through the night, which
will allow temperatures to drop efficiently. The urban centers
and shoreline may stay in the 50s, but most areas will drop into
the 40s. With forecast dew points in the mid 30s along the
Appalachians, could see some patchy frost develop in the typical
high elevation cold air sinks. Some patchy fog could also form
along the rivers west of the Blue Ridge.

The surface high will slide southeast across the area Sunday as
northwest flow aloft continues. Plenty of sun can be expected
with much lighter winds than today. High temperatures will
remain slightly below normal, with most areas in the 70s. Winds
will shift southerly Sunday night, and the ensuing dew point
advection will help hold low temperatures to the upper 40s and
50s.

A shortwave will reinforce the troughing along the east coast on
Monday. A cold front will pass south through the area early in
the day, with the main effects being added cloud cover and a
wind shift back to the north. The frontal passage will likely be
dry, as any diurnally driven showers form south and east of the
forecast area during the afternoon. Temperatures won`t change
appreciably from Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Low rain chances through Thursday with a gradual
warming trend and thunderstorm chances for the upcoming weekend.

Overall the extended period remains mainly dry as we sit
sandwiched between incoming high pressure from central Canada
and a trough axis/upper-level low pressure over the Southeast
U.S. Monday`s cold front will act as a guide for potentially two
coastal low pressure systems to work northeastward from the
Southeast coast and likely out to sea. With the trough axis
overhead, spotty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm could
develop (with the highest chances over the terrain) Tuesday
afternoon and evening, although most locations will get away
dry with just some extra cloud cover.

With the front toward the coast and incoming high pressure from
central Canada (set to anchor over the central Apps midweek),
expect a continuation of low rain chances through at least
Friday. This is due in part to the strength of the 1024-1028 mb
high holding 1000 mb low pressure off the Carolina coast,
although this system could throw a spotty shower/sprinkle along
and east of I-95 (in particular south of Washington DC)
Wednesday into Thursday. While chances for rain remain low based
on the current guidance, there has still be a lot of model
variability as to how the upper low will evolve. Something we`ll
continue to monitor given that any additional rain is much
needed with severe and extreme drought remaining across portions
of southern MD and the central VA Piedmont region.

High pressure gradually slides south and east late Thursday
into Friday allowing for a warming trend to ensue. With return
flow in place, expect temperatures back at or above average
heading into next weekend. The high shifts offshore Saturday
with a cold front dropping down from the Great Lakes and Ohio
River Valley Saturday into Sunday. This front will bring the
next chance of widespread rainfall and perhaps a few
thunderstorms to the region. The severe risk appears to be low
this far out, although CSU Learning Machine Probabilities,
CIPS, and NSSL probabilities hint on a low end threat during the
weekend period. Of course, this is subject to change since we
are several days out from determining the placement and timing
of the boundary.

Highs will remain in the 70s Tuesday through Thursday before warming
back into the 80s Friday and pushing 90 for next weekend. Low
temperatures will remain in the upper 40s and low to mid 50s
Tuesday and Wednesday nights before warming back into the 60s
late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Monday. High pressure will
slide overhead Sunday, with light north winds shifting westerly
and then southerly Sunday night. A weak cold front will turn
winds back to the north on Monday.

VFR conditions are expected across terminals Tuesday through Friday,
with winds generally flowing north to northwest switching to the
south and southwest late in the week. Spotty showers and t-storms
may create brief reductions at terminals mainly west of MRB Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds gradually subside overnight. Northwest winds Sunday
morning become southerly by Sunday evening. Channeling could
result in SCA conditions on the middle Chesapeake Bay Sunday
night. Another front will push through early Monday turning
winds out of the north once again. However, they should be
weaker than the current front, so SCAs are not expected at this
time (but remain possible if the front trends stronger).

Northerly winds look to continue Tuesday and Wednesday with marginal
SCA conditions possible over the middle and lower waters of the
Chesapeake Bay/tidal Potomac River. The strength of these winds
will depend on the gradient between an area of wobbling low
pressure off the coast and incoming high from central Canada.
Winds fall back below SCA levels Thursday with some southerly
channeling over the wider waters late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A return of southerly flow will bring a surge in water levels
by Sunday night. Guidance indicates a greater chance of minor
flooding during this period, especially in the northern portion
of the Chesapeake Bay. Annapolis may even approach moderate
flood stage. While another cold front will lower water levels
Monday, they might rise again toward the middle of the week
depending on the position and strength of low pressure
developing off the coast.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/EST
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/EST
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/EST