Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

519
FXUS61 KLWX 241448
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
948 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build across the area today. A warm
front and wave of low pressure will approach on Thursday, with a
cold front surging south Thursday night. Another wave of low
pressure will impact the area Friday into Friday night. A
stronger cold front will arrive late Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With the cold frontal passage, areas have mixed out and
temperatures increased. Gusty northwest winds will follow the
cold front through the midday hours, before decreasing during
the afternoon as high pressure builds overhead. Lingering
stratocumulus clouds should scour out as the front passes.
However, some mid and high level clouds may increase late in the
day ahead of the next shortwave. Daytime maximum temperatures
will not differ too much to what`s being observed this morning
in the 50s to near 60, though some places in north
central/northeast Maryland may not rise above the mid to upper
40s.

The shortwave and weak surface low will approach from the Ohio
Valley tonight. Clouds will increase, and the chance for some
showers will increase late. There is some uncertainty how much
crosses the mountains with residual dry air in place, but some
weak elevated instability may support longevity. While
precipitation will likely be in the form of rain, will have to
monitor for any cold air trapped in valleys that are able to
radiate during the evening. The most likely place for
subfreezing temperatures will be near and northeast of
Baltimore, where any precipitation likely doesn`t arrive until
after daybreak. Otherwise lows will be in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will continue Christmas morning across the area, most
favored across the south coincident with the path of best
forcing and deep moisture. Conditions will dry out in the
afternoon, although some upslope rain showers may linger in the
Alleghenies for a brief time. Clouds may be slow to clear, but
any sun will help boost temperatures in the mild airmass.
Northeastern Maryland may remain in the 40s, with places toward
central Virginia possibly reaching the 60s. The departing wave
will be overtaken by a stronger cold front trailing low pressure
moving through New England. A strong high will move toward
Quebecand wedge down the Appalachians in the wake of the cold
front. Colder and drier air will advect into the area Thursday
night, with most areas reaching near or below freezing.

The next shortwave trough and surface low will approach from the
northwest on Friday. Current timing favors the most widespread
precipitation Friday afternoon and evening. The antecedent
cold/dry surface conditions and position of the high will make
this an ideal cold air damming situation. While some snow could
be in the cards near and northeast of Baltimore, the warm air
aloft will make sleet and freezing rain the predominant
precipitation types (or rain where temperatures are above
freezing). Lingering uncertainties are most prominent for
thermal profiles...both surface temperatures and how warm the
air is aloft. There will also be a precipitation gradient from
north to south, with lighter amounts to the south. The highest
confidence for subfreezing surface temperatures and predominant
freezing rain through most of the event would be in the typical
cold pocket near Frostburg. These areas have the highest
probability of seeing a quarter inch of ice. However, such
amounts could ultimately affect many areas along the entirety
of the MD/PA border depending on how much sleet occurs and
whether surface temperatures may sneak a little above freezing.
Near and south of I-66/US-50, wintry accumulations should start
decreasing due to a combination of warmer surface temperatures
and lower precipitation amounts. However, there is still room
for the forecast to shift. The low will transfer off the Mid
Atlantic coast Friday night with potential for nondiurnal
temperatures as some places may mix down some of the warmer air.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Light overrunning precip is possible Saturday with the boundary off
to the south. Still quite a bit of spread across the area in terms
of temperatures, but the trend overall has been colder where the
wedge holds on.

Another system with more energy and moisture arrives Sunday bringing
mainly rain to the FA. A brief wintry mix is possible at onset in
favored cold pockets of the Alleghenies, but low confidence at this
time. Temps Sunday likely the warmest of the long term with a
notably cool down behind this trough.

To start next week on Monday, highs will fall back well below
average with 30s for most (teens and 20s in the mountains).
Lingering upslope snow showers are possible through the beginning of
the week, though some uncertainties with moisture fetch. Wind
Advisories are possible across the Alleghenies given the tight
pressure gradient.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front is moving through the area this morning with gusty
northwest winds in its wake. Lingering stratocumulus clouds are
beginning to depart. Expect the stronger northwesterly winds to
mix down across the rest of the area near to a couple hours
after sunrise. 15-25 kt gusts are possible through the morning
before winds start to decline this afternoon. Winds will be
light and variable most of tonight as high pressure moves across
the area with increasing mid and high level clouds.

A wave of low pressure may bring some light rain showers late
tonight through Thursday morning, with the highest chance at
CHO. The main impact will come from ceilings though, which will
lower to MVFR at times Thursday morning. Conditions may improve
Thursday afternoon. A cold front will cross by Thursday evening,
and northerly winds may be gusty for a time.

A low pressure system will affect the area Friday into Friday
night. The most likely time frame for precipitation is Friday
afternoon and evening. BWI, MTN, and MRB likely see sleet and
freezing rain and possibly a little snow to start. Wintry
precipitation is a bit more uncertain for IAD/DCA. CHO is likely
mostly rain. IFR conditions likely develop which last through
Friday night.

CIG restrictions could continue into portions of Saturday with
moisture overrunning a boundary over the Carolinas, especially
across northern and eastern terminals. By Sunday, rain overspreads
the region ahead of a strong cold front. Thus, expect additional
periods of sub-VFR conditions across the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs are in place for northwesterly gusts up to 25 knots through
the afternoon. Winds diminish this afternoon as high pressure
builds overhead.

As a weak wave of low pressure crosses the waters on Thursday,
southerly winds may briefly approach advisory levels during the
morning. A cold front will push through during the early
evening, with a period of gusty northerly winds in its wake.
Advisories are most probable along the bay.

While a wintry mix may impact portions of the waters on Friday into
Friday night, wind fields should likely stay below advisory
criteria. Light winds continue Saturday with transient high
pressure.

SCA to even gale conditions are possible behind the strong front
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ535>537.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/CPB
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...ADS/CPB
MARINE...ADS/CPB