Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

433
FXUS61 KLWX 021431
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1031 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Although winds over the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay have
diminished some over the past few hours, there are still a few
places encountering winds gusting up to 20 knots at times.
Therefore, a Marine Weather Statement is in effect for another
half hour or so in the near term forecast. Tidal anomalies have
decrease below threshold at Annapolis; therefore, the Coastal
Flood Advisory has expired. No major changes were made to the
forecast. The Freeze Watch remains in effect for tonight.
Looking ahead, computer models are leaning toward a more
aggressive cold front around Thursday of next week that could
bring a few strong thunderstorms to the region. It is too early
to tell to what extent, but the overall pattern of low pressure
and cold fronts and high pressure positions are favoring this
scenario.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Freeze Watch remains in effect for tonight with below
  normal temperatures expected across the forecast area.

- 2)Showers remain possible at times next week as temperatures
  rise to near or above normal. Heavier showers and a
  thunderstorm could be in the picture for Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Freeze Watch remains in effect for tonight with
below normal temperatures expected across the forecast area.

A Freeze Watch remains in effect for tonight with low
temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s along the Alleghenies.
Low temperatures will be in the 30s to mid 40s across the
forecast area, although winds blowing 5 to 10 knots will inhibit
frost development. That being said, frosty conditions are
possible west of the Blue Ridge where low temperatures will be
in the low 30s and winds will be light in the valleys.

Overall, below average temperatures are expected this afternoon
and tomorrow with high temperatures in the 50s to 60s. Overnight
low temperatures drop into the 30s and 40s each night.
Primarily dry conditions are expected each day as a coastal low
tracks off the coast of the Carolinas. Any precipitation
associated with the area of low pressure should remain southeast
of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers remain possible at times next week as
temperatures rise to near or above normal. Heavier showers and a
thunderstorm could be in the picture for Thursday.

Zonal flow takes over in the upper levels once this weekend`s trough
passes through. By Monday, temperatures should rise back into the
mid-70s across much of the area and continue to increase into the
midweek. By then, a trough originating over the Plains will approach
the region, bringing with it a cold frontal boundary and renewed
chances for showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday evening and
going into Wednesday. As this trough passes through, daily chances
for rain and thunderstorms exist, with the strongest chances for
convective activity currently Thursday, where NCAR`s Medium
Range Convective AI Forecast shows the area in the 5%-15%
probability range at this time. Upper level zonal flow again
takes over towards the end of next week once this cold front
moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected across all terminals. Winds shift
to north/northwest behind the front, blowing 5 to 10 knots with
gusts up to 15 knots this afternoon. Winds remain out of the
northwest on Sunday, gusting 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Cloud cover decreases on Sunday and Monday with VFR conditions
expected both days. On Monday, wind shift to southwesterly as
high pressure shifts offshore. Winds blow 5 to 10 knots with
gusts 15 to 20 knots.

Southerly wind flow persists as winds gust up to 20-25 knots
Tuesday. A slight chance of rain showers could temporarily
reduce CIGs/VSBYs at terminals beginning Tuesday evening into
the overnight hours ahead of an approaching frontal zone.
Restrictions are likely on Wednesday as rain impacts the
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds diminish below SCA criteria around midday until tonight
when a coastal low tracks nearby. Northwest winds gust 20 to 25
knots across the waters tonight with additional SCAs likely.
Winds shift to southerly on Monday with a Small Craft Advisories
likely.

Small Craft Advisories remain likely Tuesday as southwest winds
flow. Sustained 20 knot winds are expected on Tuesday. South
winds are expected on Wednesday with SCA criteria conditions
expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Winds have shifted to northwesterly with anomalies expected to
fall through the day.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     VAZ503-504.
WV...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/SRT
MARINE...AVS/KLW/SRT