Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

478
FXUS61 KLWX 091931
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
331 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Frost Advisory has been issued late tonight for the central
Shenandoah Valley. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect along the
Chesapeake Bay Friday evening. Increased winds and lowered
dewpoints Saturday behind the cold front, which may lead to
elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Some frost is possible tonight in the Shenandoah Valley,
  followed by above normal temperatures Friday and a mostly dry
  frontal passage Friday night.

- 2) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some frost is possible tonight in the Shenandoah
Valley, followed by above normal temperatures Friday and a
mostly dry frontal passage Friday night.

High pressure is centered east of New England this afternoon.
Temperatures are fairly seasonable with a light southeast to
south wind. Thin cirrus present this afternoon should depart by
this evening. With decoupling winds, some radiational cooling
should take place. Low level moistening will continue to take
place, especially along the I-95 corridor. So even if
temperatures can fall into the mid 30s in outlying areas, frost
seems unlikely across the eastern half of the area. Lower dew
points will be present west of the Blue Ridge, and perhaps in
the foothills to the east. Based on the latest guidance that
performs well in radiational cooling, the central Shenandoah
Valley has the greatest chance to see frost to near freezing
conditions, so issued a Frost Advisory for this area. Still
can`t rule out some patchy frost elsewhere in the above-
mentioned areas. Meanwhile, low clouds will likely develop again
along the I-95 corridor as low levels continue to moisten. Some
guidance is more supportive of fog, however, which could be
locally dense.

Any fog or low clouds should break up by midday as high pressure
drifts farther south and east and southerly winds take hold.
Temperatures will respond and rise above normal, with many areas
reaching the 70s. Low pressure will pass well to the north
Friday, with the trailing cold front dropping south into the
area Friday night. Mid level support for the front will be
departing to the northeast, and there will be minimal moisture
fetch along the frontal zone with largely westerly flow. The
greatest chance for any measurable rain will be along the
Allegheny Mountains, with perhaps a brief shower or sprinkle to
the east.

Northerly winds may be gusty in the wake of the front Saturday
morning. Cold advection won`t be terribly strong, however, and
temperatures will likely remain above normal Saturday. In fact,
central Virginia may not be much cooler compared to Friday. The
front should be far enough to the south that any renewed threat
of showers shouldn`t be a concern. High pressure will quickly
build across the Mid Atlantic Saturday night.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Above average temperatures and dry conditions are
expected late this weekend through the middle of next week.

High pressure will promote a string of dry days later this weekend
through much of next week with increasingly warmer temperatures with
each passing day. Highs Sunday mainly in the 70s with some 60s to
the northeast. By Monday, all areas reach the lower 80s except for a
few 70s in the Appalachians. For Tuesday, the middle to upper 80s
will be the story. Ending this extended forecast period, the upper
80s to lower 90s should be achieved, although humidity will
remain relatively low.

There is a slight chance of a few rain showers at times in the
northern Appalachians and along the Mason-Dixon Monday through
Wednesday, but confidence is low at this time due to uncertainty
with the position of the frontal zone to the north and west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control of the local weather. VFR
conditions and light southeast or south winds can be expected
through this evening. As low levels continue to moisten, low
clouds and/or fog may develop across the metro terminals late
tonight into Friday morning. Guidance remains split on if and
how this unfolds, though given the patchy low clouds this
morning, feel confident with some sort of mention (limited to
MVFR for now). NAM forecast soundings suggest low clouds
(potentially IFR), although HREF probabilities of quarter mile
visibility are notably high, especially closer to the Chesapeake
Bay.

Any low clouds should once again break up by around noon on
Friday. VFR conditions are then expected through Saturday. Winds
will be out of the south on Friday, and then turn to out of the
north early Saturday behind a weak cold frontal passage. Gusts
around 20 kt are possible especially during the morning.

VFR conditions Sunday through Monday night. Winds southeast 5
knots Sunday, then south 10 knots Monday. Winds becoming more
southwest 10 to 15 knots few higher gusts Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level south to southeasterly winds are expected over the
waters through Friday morning with high pressure drifting to the
south and east. Winds will approach low end SCA levels for a
time in southerly flow late Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. Southerly channeling effects will likely be strongest
along the bay, where a Small Craft Advisory has been issued.

A cold front will push south across the waters early Saturday
morning. There will likely be a surge in northerly winds in its
wake which will require a SCA, but overall it will be a brief
period as building high pressure results in decreasing winds
during the afternoon.

Small craft advisories possible for the open Chesapeake on Sunday.
Small craft advisories likely over the Chesapeake and Lower Tidal
Potomac Monday into Monday evening. Winds southeast to south 5 to 10
knots Sunday, then south to southwest 10 to 15 knots gusts 25 knots
at times Monday into Monday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gradual warming and continued dry conditions are expected through
Friday as high pressure departs offshore. RHs recover tonight to
around 90-100 percent to the east of the Blue Ridge, and 60-80
percent to the west of the Blue Ridge. Winds will be a touch
stronger on Friday out of the south, and could gust to around 20-25
mph on the higher ridges. Conditions will be dry once again, with
min RH values in the 20s to the west of the Blue Ridge, and upper
20s and 30s to the east of the Blue Ridge.

Other than a small chance for a shower in the Alleghenies Friday
night as a cold front moves through, no precipitation is expected
over the next several days. Gusty northerly winds will develop
behind the front Saturday morning, but may not overlap as humidity
values drop by afternoon. An SPS for elevated fire danger may
be needed.

Even warmer conditions are likely early next week as another area of
high pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic coast with minimal rain
chances.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are some daily temperature records during the April 14-15,
2026 timeframe:

A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.

                   ***TUESDAY, APRIL 14TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD HIGH (YEAR)   RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        91F (1960)            65F (2014)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          87F (1960)!           63F (2014)
Baltimore (BWI)                  91F (1941)            65F (2018)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     90F (1960)            67F (2018)
Martinsburg (MRB)                87F (1960)!           62F (2014)
Charlottesville (CHO)            90F (1945)+!          67F (1899)
Annapolis (NAK)                  90F (1941)            65F (1977)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 86F (2024)+!          64F (2014)

                  ***WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD HIGH (YEAR)   RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        89F (1941)!           65F (2023)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          87F (1967)!           62F (2023)!
Baltimore (BWI)                  88F (1941)!           65F (1941)!
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     92F (2024)            67F (1960)!
Martinsburg (MRB)                90F (1941)!           63F (1967)
Charlottesville (CHO)            92F (2024)!           68F (1941)
Annapolis (NAK)                  91F (1941)            68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 85F (1960)+!          61F (2023)+!

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ025>027.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...KLW