Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

922
FXUS61 KLWX 151842
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
242 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast at this time,
but have added a climate section to the bottom to reflect the
near-record high temperatures early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above average temperatures are expected beginning this weekend
along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances through Tuesday.

2) A more organized threat for severe thunderstorms is shaping
up for Wednesday along a strong cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above average temperatures are expected beginning
this weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances
through the middle of next week.

One more Spring-like day today before summertime heat settles in
this weekend into the middle of next week. Upper level low pressure
will push offshore today as high pressure builds in from the Ohio
River Valley. With that said, expect more sunshine mixed in with mid
and high level cloud cover. Breezy conditions will remain for the
front half of the day given the gradient between the departing low
and incoming high. Expect gusts between 20 to 25 mph gradually
diminishing during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Highs
today will push into the upper 60s and low 70s as a result of more
sunshine. Winds go calm tonight with clear skies allowing temps to
fall back into the 40s and low 50s.

High pressure will drift offshore Saturday into Sunday allowing for
persistent return flow into the region. Meanwhile, heights will
rise as broad high pressure strengthens offshore. At the same time,
the upper level flow pattern becomes much more zonal allowing a
front to try and drop south into the region. The stationary front
over the Ohio River Valley and eastern Great Lakes will act as a
catalyst for multiple pieces of upper level energy to pivot through.
These pieces of energy could help initiate a few spotty showers or t-
storms mainly across the mountains on both Saturday and Sunday
afternoons. Overall most of the weekend will remain dry with highs
for most Saturday in the 80s and pushing 90 Sunday.

Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen to our east
Monday into Tuesday, while surface high pressure builds over the
Central Atlantic. This will continue to pump hot and
increasingly humid air into the region. As the ridge gradually
shifts east however, that breakdown in the ridge from west to
east across the forecast area may allow for a couple of storms
to develop each day, especially west of the Blue Ridge. A
strong thunderstorm can`t be ruled out during this time in this
type of airmass. The early runs of the RRFS that include Monday
afternoon are quite aggressive with convection Monday afternoon
West of the Blue Ridge, so am at least slightly more concerned
with the severe threat that day than earlier today. However,
will continue to monitor future model runs to see if this trend
continues.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A more organized threat for severe thunderstorms is
shaping up for Wednesday along a strong cold front.

A strong cold front will try to make its way through the region
Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing us a higher chance of
showers and thunderstorms. This activity will feed off of the
higher humidity and heat. It will also of course be accompanied
by a much higher amount of shear. This will result in a
substantially higher severe weather threat compared to the
earlier days in the week. Expecting storms to fire up along a
pre-frontal trough ahead of the main cold front Wednesday
afternoon/evening, and the the actual front would come through
late evening/overnight.

This front then has the potential to retreat northward as a
warm front Thursday afternoon and night. Temperatures will
likely cool due to extra cloud cover and additional
shower/t-storm chances across the region.

The front may remain nearby through Friday before clearing the
area for the upcoming weekend as Canadian high pressure builds
south from the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the weekend into early next
week. Expect pockets of mid and high level cloud cover to return
through this evening before SKC conditions return late tonight
into early Saturday morning. Gusty northwest winds will continue
to diminish this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the
Ohio River Valley.

Winds will go calm to variable overnight as the high settles
nearby. High pressure drifts offshore Saturday into Sunday
allowing winds to switch back to the south and southwest at less
than 15 kts. VFR conditions will prevail with a shower or t-
storm possibly approaching KMRB, KHGR, and KFDK late Saturday
evening after 23z/7pm. Confidence in this is very low given
residual dry air aloft.

Primarily VFR conditions are expected at terminals on Sunday and
Monday. An isolated tstorm could affect the northern terminals
Sunday (i.e MRB, HGR, FDK, IAD, BWI) that could cause temporary
reduced conditions at terminals. Winds briefly shift westerly Sunday
afternoon before shifting south southeast on Monday. Additional
spotty t-storm chances are possible Tuesday mainly at MRB.

More widespread sub-VFR conditions are likely Wednesday and
Thursday as a cold front pushes through. Storms could be strong
to severe as this pushes through.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs continue for all waters through 4pm this afternoon, but
winds are already starting to taper off. Sub-SCA level winds
continue into Saturday morning as high pressure builds nearby.
Winds will become variable tonight before turning to the south
Saturday. Occasional SCA conditions will be possible across
portions of the waters due to south to southwesterly channeling
Saturday, but confidence is too low for Small Craft Advisories
at this time.

Winds drop back below SCA levels Sunday into Monday, although
occasional gusts up to SCA level are possible in channeling
over the open waters during this aforementioned time.
Southwesterly winds gradually become southeasterly Monday
night.

No marine hazards expected Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Winds south to southwest 5 to 10 knots through the period.

Showers and storms associated with an approaching cold front
will traverse the waters Wednesday afternoon. These will bring
the chance for severe weather, so SMWs may be needed during this
time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are some daily temperature records during the May 18-20,
2026 timeframe:

A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.

                   ***MONDAY, MAY 18TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        96F (1877)            72F (2015)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          91F (1987)!           68F (2015)!
Baltimore (BWI)                  97F (1962)            70F (2017)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     97F (1962)            75F (2017)
Martinsburg (MRB)                96F (1911)            66F (2015)!
Charlottesville (CHO)            95F (1962)+           73F (1911)
Annapolis (NAK)                  95F (1962)+           69F (1953)+!
Hagerstown (HGR)                 93F (1962)            71F (2017)

                  ***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        96F (1997)+           72F (2015)!
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          92F (1997)+!          66F (2017)+!
Baltimore (BWI)                  98F (1962)            75F (1877)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     98F (1962)            78F (1962)
Martinsburg (MRB)                98F (1911)            69F (1996)!
Charlottesville (CHO)            97F (1962)            72F (1997)
Annapolis (NAK)                  96F (1962)            71F (1911)!
Hagerstown (HGR)                 97F (1996)            69F (2017)+!

                 ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        96F (1996)            73F (2019)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          93F (1996)            69F (2019)
Baltimore (BWI)                  95F (1962)            71F (2019)+
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     97F (1962)            74F (1998)+
Martinsburg (MRB)                97F (1911)            70F (1998)
Charlottesville (CHO)            96F (1996)            73F (1996)
Annapolis (NAK)                  98F (1997)            76F (1898)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 97F (1996)            66F (1998)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/EST
AVIATION...CJL/EST
MARINE...CJL/EST
CLIMATE...BRO