Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

679
FXUS61 KLWX 120744
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
344 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for this afternoon
through Monday. Additional SCAs may be needed at night due to
southerly channeling and during the middle and second half of
the week. SPSs or RFWs may be needed Monday and during the
middle and second half of the week due to record breaking heat,
worsening drought conditions and gusty winds.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Near-record warmth and increasing fire weather threat
  likely during the upcoming workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-record warmth and increasing fire weather
threat likely during the upcoming workweek.

High pressure over the Northeast this morning will slide
offshore later today. The axis of the surface high will extend
across the Southeast, preventing an approaching cold front from
reaching the Mid-Atlantic Monday. Latest model trends now
suggest these showers could make it further southeast than
previously expected. While only trace amounts are expected,
slightly higher humidity values may lessen the fire weather
threat a bit.

The main concern is going to be the increasing temperatures
that reach the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday through Thursday.
Wednesday and Thursday look to be the warmest days when mid 90s
are possible, though that is based on the high-end
probabilities from the model guidance. Still, all-time high
temperature records for April could be set or broken. Fire
weather conditions will become more favorable for wildfire
spread as dry/gusty days continue to dry fine fuels.

The surface high over the Atlantic retreats enough on Friday to
allow a cold front to cross the region, bringing temperatures down a
bit to the 80s. This looks to be a mostly dry FROPA. The next chance
for seeing any appreciable rainfall could be (really stressing the
COULD BE; not guaranteed) next weekend. Expect drought conditions
across the area to worsen over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least the middle
of the week. Winds are expected to be gusting around 20-25
knots each afternoon. Winds will become south to southwest today
through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs have been issued for this afternoon through Monday due to
southerly channeling and winds gusting 20-30kt. High pressure
near the region maintains winds just below SCA levels Tuesday
into mid week, but could still be some periods of near 20 knot
gusts across the waters, particularly at night due to southerly
channeling.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
This coming week looks particularly volatile in regards to fire
weather across the region. A strong upper-level ridge-building event
will take place over the area for much of the week. This will
yield well above average, and potentially record-breaking,
temperatures for mid-April. There could be a 3 to 5 day span, at
least, where temperatures are in the upper 80s to mid 90s. This
will be paired with very poor moisture return as well, with
most days seeing min RH values drop into the 30s during the
afternoons, especially in the valleys. Would not be shocked to
see some days mix out even lower RH values into the mid to upper
20s. The upper slopes and ridges will likely remain higher, but
still only in the 40s. The hot and dry conditions, combined
with ongoing/rapidly worsening drought and gusty winds each day
will likely necessitate at least Fire Danger Statements each day
through Thursday. Red Flag conditions seem plausible as well,
with Monday being the first day to watch extremely closely.

Late Thursday into Friday will be the next chance for precipitation,
albeit not a great one. A weak front may move through the region,
but this part of the forecast is riddled with uncertainty at this
point, and there is still a fair amount of guidance that keeps us
hot and dry through next weekend as well.

Lastly, wanted to make a note on green up. We are starting to green
up east of the higher terrain, but latest VIIRS True imagery
still has a fair amount of brown over the higher terrain itself.
These areas are likely still very vulnerable and should be
monitored very closely over the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Many daily records are likely to be broken this upcoming workweek,
for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some
stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and
warm low temperature records for the month of April.

April 14
LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
Washington-National (DCA)91F (1960)      65F (2014)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)         87F (1960)      63F (2014)
Baltimore (BWI)                 91F (1941)      65F (2018)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)    90F (1960)      67F (2018)
Martinsburg (MRB)               87F (1960)      62F (2014)
Charlottesville (CHO)           90F (1945)      67F (1899)
Annapolis(NAK)                  90F (1941)      65F (1977)
Hagerstown (HGR)                86F (2024)      64F (2014)

April 15
LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
Washington-National (DCA)89F (1941)      65F (2023)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)         87F (1967)      62F (2023)
Baltimore (BWI)                 88F (1941)      65F (1941)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)    92F (2024)      67F (1960)
Martinsburg (MRB)               90F (1941)      63F (1967)
Charlottesville (CHO)           92F (2024)      68F (1941)
Annapolis(NAK)                  91F (1941)      68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR)                85F (1960)      61F (2023)

April 16
LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
Washington-National (DCA)92F (2002)      65F (2017)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)         91F (2002)      63F (2017)
Baltimore (BWI)                 90F (2012)      66F (1941)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)    91F (2012)      65F (2012)
Martinsburg (MRB)               90F (2002)      63F (2017)
Charlottesville (CHO)           92F (1976)      67F (1941)
Annapolis(NAK)                  89F (2017)      70F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR)                88F (2002)      62F (2002)

April 17
LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
Washington-National (DCA)       95F (2002)65F (2002)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)         93F (2002)59F (2024)
Baltimore (BWI)                 93F (2002)66F (1896)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)    95F (2002)66F (1976)
Martinsburg (MRB)               93F (2002)60F (1941)
Charlottesville (CHO)           94F (1976)65F (1976)
Annapolis(NAK)                  90F (1976)68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR)                90F (2002)64F (2002)


All-Time April Record Highs:
Washington-National (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
Washington-Dulles (IAD)         93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
Baltimore (BWI)                 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)    98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
Martinsburg (MRB)               96F 4/21/1941
Charlottesville (CHO)           98F 4/24-25/1925
Annapolis(NAK)                  95F 4/20/1941
Hagerstown (HGR)                94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915

All-Time April Record Warm-Lows:
Washington-National (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
Washington-Dulles (IAD)         68F 4/27/2011
Baltimore (BWI)                 70F 4/19/1896
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)    76F 4/26/1990
Martinsburg (MRB)               69F 4/19/2025
Charlottesville (CHO)           72F 4/26/1915
Annapolis(NAK)                  70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
Hagerstown (HGR)                69F 4/27/2009

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ535-538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KRR