Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

847
FXUS61 KLWX 030104 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
904 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quiet weather with a warming trend midweek.

2) Hot weather returns for the end of the week before a cold front
brings increasing rain chances early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Quiet weather with a warming trend midweek.

Coastal low pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast tonight
before ejecting east toward the coastal GA/SC. Current 06z/12z
ensemble and deterministic guidance shoves this system further
south given the broad high building south from the Great
Lakes/Ohio River Valley. As a result, expect dry conditions for
both Wednesday and Thursday along with temperatures closer to
seasonal norms. Highs Wednesday will into the upper 70s and low
80s (upper 60s mountains) with mid to upper 80s (low 70s
mountains) expected Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will fall
back into the mid top upper 50s (low 50s mountains). These
values climb back into the upper 50s and mid 60s under return
flow Thursday night into Friday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot weather returns for the end of the week before a
cold front brings increasing rain chances early next week.

Surface high pressure will slide off the southeast coast by Friday
while upper level ridging builds across the southeastern US. The
forecast for Friday and Saturday is fairly high confidence under the
influence of the ridge. The main story for this period will be the
rise in temperatures, with some locations reaching the lower 90s
each day. However, dew point rises will be modest, likely staying in
the 50s, so the heat index will be close to the air temperature.
Most locations will remain dry through Saturday, although it`s
possible a few showers or storms could sneak into the northwestern
portions of the forecast area Saturday afternoon or night depending
on the proximity of the forcing to the north.

Forecast uncertainty increases Sunday into early next week as models
differentiate in the strength and timing of northern stream
shortwaves and the subsequent breakdown of the southeast ridge. Some
guidance shows a more progressive trough while others attempt to
develop a closed low at some point. At the surface, a cold front
will drop southward toward the area Sunday, although the upper level
pattern will dictate whether it pushes through quickly or stalls out
nearby early next week. Thus, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase Sunday and Monday. If the timing of
forcing aligns with peak heating and a more potent trough, some
strong to severe thunderstorms could occur. Rain chances Monday
and Tuesday will be dependent on the position of the front and
upper level features, although there are hints high pressure may
eventually wedge in from the north. Temperatures will likely
remain above normal Sunday, then trend down behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Winds will remain out of the north and northeast through
Wednesday. Sustained speeds will remain between 5-15 kts with
occasional gusts up to 20 kts down toward KLYH and KRIC.

Significant weather is unlikely Friday and Saturday.
Light west to southwest winds are expected each day. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with a cold front Sunday afternoon or
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will drop back below SCA levels this evening as high
pressure builds overhead.

No marine hazards are expected Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure moves overhead. Some near SCA level southerly
channeling is possible Thursday evening into Friday morning over
the middle and lower waters, although confidence is low at this
time. Winds will be out of the north/northeast through
Wednesday before switching back to the south and southwest
Thursday.

High pressure will slide off the southeast coast Friday and
Saturday. Winds may fluctuate between westerly and southerly. Some
marginal southerly channeling events could unfold along the bay
during each evening/overnight. A cold front will approach from the
north Sunday afternoon or evening and could bring some gusty
thunderstorms.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will likely rise again through this evening, the
magnitude of which will depend on the position and strength of
low pressure developing off the coast. Additional minor tidal
flooding is most probable at Annapolis with Wednesday morning`s
high tide, but will monitor any potential quicker water rises
given the return of onshore flow tonight.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
     MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/EST
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/EST
MARINE...ADS/LFR/EST