Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

612
FXUS61 KLWX 202000
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Allegheny and Blue
Ridge Mountains, north central and northeast Maryland, and the
Catoctin Mountains for Sunday into Monday. Gale Watch has also been
issued for the Chesapeake Bay and the lower tidal Potomac
River.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-1) Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the area
 Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the area
Sunday into Monday.

No notable changes were observed with the 12Z guidance with
respect to the low pressure fcst to develop off the NC coast
Sunday with the GFS remaining on its world and the Canadian and
ECMWF models showing similar scenarios.

While the Canadian and ECMWF models trended a little closer to
the coast with the position of the low center, they still
remain a good distance from Washington DC, roughly 300 nm, so
that the sweet spot of this storm remains far east from our
area.

Precip is expected to develop across the area Sunday morning on
the north side of developing sfc low pressure to the southeast. It
should be initially fall as rain or rain/snow mix as low-
levels will be too warm. In addition, the precip intensity
initially will be light, so that any snow that falls will have
a difficult time accumulating on roads other than grassy areas
or at high elevations. Most of the day Sunday should be like
that with snow falling at temperatures around 34 at light
intensity.

Sunday night, upper level trough will be digging across the OH
Valley and Mid-Atlantic states and provide strong lift to
generate widespread light to moderate snow. The best low-level
and upper level forcing will be focused across the area of
northern central and northeast MD along an inverted-trof axis.
This area seems to have the least amount of uncertainty with
respect to QPF according to the latest 12Z EPS ensembles with
QPF amounts generally around half inch liquid equivalent. While
snow ratios will likely lower than normal, potential banding may
offset lower ratios and more marginal temperatures. The snow
will likely continue through Sunday night before tapering in
intensity or exiting the area around daybreak Monday. Gusty NW
winds will follow Monday in the wake of the storm. Elsewhere,
light snow is expected Sunday night tapering off after midnight
from west to east, except in the mountain areas where upslope
flow will continue to generate snow snowers.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Clearing expected the rest of this afternoon with winds
increasing to 20 kt after clouds clear out. Wind shift to
westerly winds is expected later this evening.

Precip expected to arrive early Sunday in the form of rain
initially before transitioning to snow later in the day. Main
window of accumulating snow looks to be Sunday evening with
passage of upper low. Expect flight restrictions Sunday night
due to snow. Gusty winds up to 30 kt Monday on the backside of
the storm.

&&

.MARINE...

Possible SCA conditions this evening, then winds become light
Saturday. SCA conditions develop again Sunday due to tightening
pressure gradient with gales conditions likely for the open
waters Sunday night, potentially lasting through Monday night.
SCA conditions then persist through Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides are uncertain with potential coastal storm Sunday into
Monday given divergent model solutions on the track/strength.
While some tidal flooding can`t be ruled out, a more probable
outcome is that strong north winds could result in dropping
tide levels.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     MDZ008.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ501-502-510.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     afternoon for MDZ509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ503.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     afternoon for VAZ503.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday
     night for VAZ507-508.
WV...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ501>506.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     afternoon for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR