Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

952
FXUS61 KLWX 190747
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
347 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Gale Watch was upgraded to a Gale Warning and Small Craft
Advisories were extended through tonight. Otherwise, no major
changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Frost and Freeze conditions continue through this morning.

- 2) Uncertainty remains in regards to the track and potential
impacts from a nearby Nor`easter this week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost and Freeze conditions continue through
this morning.

Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories remain in effect for much
of this area east of the Blue Ridge and west of I-95 until 9AM
this morning. Temperatures as of 3 AM are in the 30s across much
of the forecast area west of I-95 with temperatures expected to
fall a few more degrees before sunrise. As surface high pressure
settles over the region, temperatures continue to gradually
warm with frost/freeze concerns diminishing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Uncertainty remains in regards to the track and potential
impacts from a nearby Nor`easter this week.

Overall not too much change in the weather pattern this week. With
an "Omega Block" taking form, upper-level atmospheric features
generally remain stuck in place. Current model guidance
continues to depict ridging over the central US and a strong
high building over the Great Lakes through the middle of this
week. Although some uncertainty remains in the exact track of
the Nor`easter, this pattern tends to keep the developing low
far enough off the Mid- Atlantic coast to nearly eliminate
shower potential across our region through next week. Overall,
any impactful weather will be tied to coastal communities along
the Chesapeake Bay where potential coastal flooding and gusty
marine winds remain possible concerns this week. As for these
marine and coastal flooding concerns see the corresponding
discussions below.

Late in the week, this Nor`easter is expected to pull away from the
coast giving way to another strong high pressure system over our
area. Heading into next weekend, dry and seasonable conditions are
expected to persist.

Temperatures this week remain steady with highs in the mid to
upper 50s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions continue as surface high pressure builds overhead
and dry conditions persist. Winds remain primarily out of the
north each day with terminals near the airport gusting around 15
knots in the afternoon. Otherwise, terminals can expect light
northerly winds, no precipitation, and VFR conditions.

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals Thursday and
Friday. Northwesterly winds on thursday generally turn out of
the northeast with occasional gusts up to 30 kts, especially
near the waters.

&&

.MARINE...
The Nor`easter off the Mid-Atlantic coast will deliver a
prolonged period of high end SCA conditions and gales (mainly
over the central/lower waters). The Gale Watch was upgraded to a
Gale Warning for tonight into Tuesday morning. Additionally,
Small Craft Advisories were extended through Tuesday morning for
most of the waters excluding the upper Potomac. While the threat
for gale force winds diminishes after Tuesday, Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters
through the end of the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies rise through midweek as a Nor`easter lingers
offshore. Tidal locations including Dahlgren, Annapolis,
Solomons Island, and Alexandria are forecast to reach minor
flood stage by Tuesday or Wednesday high tide cycles. However,
considerable uncertainty remains on how exactly this Nor`easter
will track and subsequently affect the tide levels. Elevated
water levels likely won`t decline until late in the week due to
the stagnant weather pattern.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Tuesday for MDZ008.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ004-005.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ006-503>507.
VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ051-501-502-
     505.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ038>040-050-
     053-506-526-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ530-535-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ530-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ531-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ532-533-
     537-540>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ534-
     543.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ534-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KVH
AVIATION...AVS/KVH
MARINE...AVS/KVH