Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

139
FXUS61 KLWX 191905
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
305 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Although most of the atmosphere will be rather dry through
Monday, a thin layer of moisture may result in scattered to
broken clouds at times. Mid week has trended slightly wetter.
Have added Small Craft Advisories for Monday/Monday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- (1) Colder early this week with a fire weather threat Monday.

- (2) Widespread frost/freeze Monday night into Tuesday morning.

- (3) Warmer temperatures mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Colder early this week with a fire weather
threat Monday.

A strong cold front will continue to push offshore tonight while
a secondary cold front approaches from the west. This second
front will cross early Monday with high pressure building in its
wake. Initial breezy conditions will abate this evening before
picking up again Monday morning.

Very dry air will move overhead through Monday. However, there
is a layer between roughly 6,000 and 12,000 feet where notable
moisture is present. The thought is scattered to broken stratocu
and wave clouds will develop out of this, especially as the
secondary front pushes through early Monday, then the trailing
shortwave/upper-level trough pivot overhead Monday afternoon. A
few sprinkles or a pop up shower can`t be ruled out (with a
little snow likely above 2500 feet over the mountains). The nose
of the shortwave aloft crosses roughly between I-70 and I-64 on
Monday, and even if precipitation evaporates before hitting the
ground (virga), very steep low-level lapse rates could result in
some enhanced gustiness. Frequent gusts of 20 to 30 mph are
expected through early this evening and again Monday, with peak
gusts of 35 to 40 mph possible especially at higher elevations.

Dry and breezy conditions are expected through early this week.
Please refer to the Fire Weather section below for more details
on the fire weather threat Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread frost/freeze Monday night into
Tuesday morning.

High pressure builds overhead Monday night into Tuesday leading
to lighter winds. The cold, dry airmass, clear skies and light
to calm winds Monday night into Tuesday morning are likely to
bring widespread frost/freeze conditions. Expanded the Freeze
Watch across the remainder of the area, thinking that the very
dry airmass and light winds will be favorable for strong
radiational cooling outside the major urban centers and away
from larger bodies of water.

This is ~10 days past the median date of the last spring freeze
based on 1991-2020 climatology for areas along/east of I-81.
Given the warmth early this spring, many areas are ahead of
schedule from a growth stand point so this freeze could be
rather impactful.

There are no frost/freeze headlines for the Alleghenies as the
growing season has not started there yet.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer temperatures mid to late week.

Warmer air will work into the region for Wednesday through
Saturday as upper-level ridging gradually builds in aloft. High
temperatures are forecast to reach into the 70s to lower 80s
each day, with overnight lows generally in the 50s. Much of the
time period should remain dry, but a shower or thunderstorm
can`t be ruled out on Wednesday or Saturday as weakening cold
fronts approach from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Gusts of 20 to 30 kts will linger through this evening with
lighter winds tonight. A secondary cold front likely results in
20- to 30-knot gusts again heading into Monday with a spotty
shower possible. Otherwise, VFR through Tue. Winds shift to S
by Tuesday, then SW Wednesday.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Wednesday and
Thursday, although a brief reduction to sub-VFR can`t be ruled
out in any showers (or t-storms) on Wednesday. Winds are
expected to be out of the southwest/west on Wednesday, before
becoming light out of the northwest on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds become lighter tonight then increase again Monday with a
secondary front. Light winds Monday night turn southerly Tuesday
with additional SCAs possible late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected late Wednesday into Thursday.
Winds will generally be out of the southwest/west on Wednesday,
before becoming light and variable on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some areas of the Shenandoah Valley and central Virginia
piedmont received less than a quarter inch of rain this weekend.
These same areas have been the driest recently, and may also
end up with the lowest humidity through Monday. That, coupled
with the breezy conditions, results in an elevated threat for
the rapid spread of fires. The potential of a more substantial
cumulus field, recent greenup, and at least some rain across the
area may keep a more significant threat at bay, hence no Fire
Weather Watches have been issued.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for DCZ001.
MD...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505>508-
     526-527.
WV...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Monday for ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ532>534-
     537-541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/DHOF/KJP/CPB
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/KJP/CPB
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/KJP/CPB/SRT