Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

509
FXUS61 KLWX 101418 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1018 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer temperatures today with showers and thunderstorms
possible this afternoon and evening, followed by additional rain
potential Monday.

2) A late season frost/freeze is expected Monday night into
Tuesday morning west of the Blue Ridge.

3) Additional chances for showers & thunderstorms midweek, with
fluctuating temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer temperatures today with showers and
thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening, followed by
additional rain potential Monday.

A cold front is located just south of the Great Lakes this
morning, with a warm front extending southeastward toward
northeast Maryland.

The cold front will drop southward today, crossing the area
during the afternoon into early evening. A perturbation
currently over southern Indiana will interact with the front to
produce scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms.
Despite temperatures warming to the mid 70s to mid 80s, dew
points in the 50s and modest mid level lapse rates will limit
instability. Therefore, updrafts may struggle and be tilted over
by around 50 kt of unidirectional shear. Should stronger
thunderstorms develop, gusty winds would be possible with a
deeply mixed boundary layer. Convection should move to the east
or dissipate this evening.

Tonight has trended drier. Anafrontal rain may hold off until
closer to Monday morning as a deeper trough digs southeastward
and low pressure develops along the front to our south. The
timing of this wave and position of the baroclinic zone remains
a bit uncertain, but it`s possible a bulk of the rain develops
from central Virginia to southern Maryland. Regardless of where
the back edge of the rain sets up, it will slowly sink southward
through the day Monday and be southeast of the area by late
afternoon. While any rain is welcome with the drought, the
recent trends suggest some areas could miss out on getting much
appreciable rain at all with this system. Cloud cover and cold
advection will limit temperatures to the 60s on Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A late season frost/freeze is expected Monday night into
Tuesday morning west of the Blue Ridge.

High pressure will build in from the west Monday night, likely
positioned just west of the Appalachian Mountains by sunrise
Tuesday. While there could be some lingering northwest flow
aloft, sheltered valleys west of the Blue Ridge will likely
decouple, where dew points will range from the upper 20s to mid
30s. Thus, frost and localized freezing conditions are
probable, especially along the Alleghenies. This could be rather
impactful given the fact that we are approaching mid- May at
this point which is a couple weeks to a month past the median
last freeze for these areas.

Temperatures moderate (but remain slightly below normal) Tuesday
under south to southwesterly return flow as high pressure moves
offshore.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Additional chances for showers & thunderstorms
midweek, with fluctuating temperatures.

Another upper-level trough forms over the Great Lakes midweek and
tracks through to the north, with an associated warm front moving
through the region on Wednesday. This brings additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms, and a cold front quickly follows
Wednesday night as the trough passes overhead. Both days will
likely see periods of showers and a few thunderstorms, but the
overall severe risk for this system is low at this time. The
rain outlook continues to be beneficial for the region given
widespread ongoing drought. Some isolated to scattered showers
may linger Thursday with the deep upper trough directly
overhead.

Temperatures will fluctuate a bit as these frontal boundaries move
through, with highs on Wednesday ranging in the low-to mid 70s
before dropping somewhat on Thursday in the wake of the cold front,
before rising to the low 80s by Saturday. Drier air & high pressure
moves into the region at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A cold front will sink toward the area this afternoon. Winds
turn west this morning, then northwest with frontal passage.
Scattered to numerous showers are expected along the front, but
instability is weak so thunderstorm development is more
uncertain. MRB has a slightly greater chance, but still keeping
the PROB30 group for all TAFs for now. Rain chances then trend
downward for a large part of the night. This system has trended
drier, so sub-VFR ceilings are now looking unlikely. Additional
showers will form around daybreak Monday as an area of low
pressure passes by to the south. The northwest edge of these
showers is uncertain, with the greatest chance at CHO. Rain will
depart to the southeast Monday afternoon.

VFR conditions are likely Monday night through Tuesday night as
high pressure builds across the area. Depending on how much rain
CHO gets Monday, there could be some fog development Monday
night.

Expect periods of sub-VFR conditions at terminals between Wednesday
and Thursday as another frontal boundary moves through the region.
Southerly winds trend northwest by Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds are expected to continue into this
afternoon. Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
reach the waters between mid afternoon and mid evening. However,
with weak instability in place, it`s uncertain whether any will
be strong enough to warrant SMWs. The cold front will shift
winds to the northwest this afternoon, but the main surge will
arrive after midnight. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued
from midnight to noon Monday, although the winds may start
tapering off from the north earlier than that.

A period of northerly channeling may warrant SCAs along the bay
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Lighter winds are expected by
midday Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. Southerly
channeling will increase and may lead to SCA conditions along
the bay Tuesday night.

SCAs are likely on Wednesday as a frontal system moves through
the area. Southerly winds shift northwest Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. SCA conditions may linger behind the front into
Thursday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Monday
     for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Monday
     for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/SRT
MARINE...ADS/LFR/SRT