Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

314
FXUS61 KLWX 091923
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
323 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight Risk of severe weather introduced for western Maryland
for Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions will persist through Thursday with
  daily of risk of showers and thunderstorms, some of which
  could be severe.

- Cooler conditions are expected for the end of the week,
  although showers and thunderstorms remain possible at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions will persist through
Thursday with daily of risk of showers and thunderstorms, some
of which, could be severe.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A hot and humid air mass will persist over the mid-Atlantic
region between subtropical ridge over the south central U.S.
and an active northern stream jet. As a result of this active
northern stream flow, numerous shortwave-troughs are fcst to
traverse the area during much of the work keeping the risk of
daily showers and thunderstorms, some of which, could be severe.

Tue and Wed look like the most active days of the week due to
stronger height falls and stronger mid-level flow with Tue
looking the day with greater instability and more enhanced
severe wx risk. As always, exact timing and location of severe
weather will depend on location`s of outflow boundaries from the
previous day.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler conditions are expected for the end of the
week, although showers and thunderstorms remain possible at times.


KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

The southward progress of the cold front becomes more uncertain for
the end of the week, although it likely drifts south with time. Both
physics-based and AI guidance shows lower severe weather chances
Thursday with declining instability. Showers and thunderstorms could
remain possible though with the front nearby. For Friday and
Saturday in particular, there may be a better chance of drying out
as high pressure builds to the north. This will also bring a
corresponding cool down in temperatures (potentially a bit below
normal) along with lower humidity. The front won`t be too far to the
south however, and will likely attempt to lift north this weekend or
early next week as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes.
Thus, some low end PoPs remain in the forecast each day through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Fair weather today. Sct-nmrs afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms Mon-Wed with temporary flight restrictions
possible.

Relatively lower, but still existent, shower and thunderstorm
chances will continue Thursday and Friday (mainly afternoon/evening)
as a cold front gradually pushes south of the area.

&&

.MARINE...

Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms which may
cause strong wind gusts. SMWs may be required Mon through Wed.

Wind speed and direction are a bit uncertain Thursday and Friday as
a cold front gradually pushes through the area. While winds appear
to be mostly sub-SCA at this time, there could be an enhanced
northwesterly surge once the front does push through. Afternoon and
evening thunderstorms remain possible until the front pushes south,
but the risk of strong/severe storms is lower compared to earlier in
the week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR