Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

634
FXUS61 KLWX 230833
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
333 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Liquid equivalent precipitation/rainfall amounts have been
increased by nearly one- third to one- half of an inch in many
places. There has also been an increased indication that a mix
of sleet and/or freezing rain would play a role in this storm,
as there could be more to the south and less to the north.
Taking this into consideration, our forecasted snow totals have
been brought down slightly. Still, you have all day today into
tonight and most of Saturday to prepare for this storm. Travel
is likely to be difficult or impossible during the peak of the
storm.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) High confidence for a major winter storm across the region
  late Saturday into Sunday.

- 2) Frigid temperatures this weekend and into much of next
  week.

- 3) Potential for a quick round of light snow by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High confidence for a major winter storm across
the region late Saturday into Sunday.

Our forecast remains on track for the most part in which our
entire forecast region will be impacted by snow, sleet, and/or
freezing rain, as well as very cold air through the second half
of the weekend. Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for the
entire region from Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. Cold
Weather Advisories remain in effect for the entire region as
well. These advisories begin this evening and continue through
mid-morning Saturday.

Some minor adjustments have been made to the QPF in which
amounts have been increased by one-third to one-half inches based
on model guidance. QPF amounts range from 1.60 inches in western
Maryland to 2.33 inches in lower southern MD and south- central
VA. During the past day or two, the model trend has been showing
sleet and/or freezing rain mixing in with snow across our
southern tier zones. Now, that trend has nudged northward a
little more. This nudge and factor of mixing with sleet and
freezing rain has dropped our expected snow amounts down by a
few tenths of an inch. In contrast, ice accumulations have
increased a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth.

The upper low near southern California will move east through
the early half of the weekend. During this time as a cold front
pushes across the region today, an Arctic airmass within a dome
of high pressure will push into and across our region later
today through early next week. There is plenty of cold air in
the lower and middle levels to support snow in many locations.
It is around 8000 feet that a slight warm nose of air will work
into the area early Sunday morning then become more pronounced
by Sunday afternoon. This slightly warm air at this level will
allow for sleet to mix with snow and still fall at a moderate to
heavy rate. The further south you look during this storm, the
more likelihood of encountering freezing rain. There remains
hints of significant icing potential from central VA and
possibly into the I-95 corridor and southern MD late Sunday.

Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15-18:1 with this
system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down
toward 7-10:1 Sunday morning into the afternoon (lower where
some mixing occurs). A pending dry slot could also play into
amounts as well. Snow should be fluffy in nature, particularly
within the initial warm advection conveyor belt Saturday night.
Expect some crustiness of this snowpack given any mixing that
may occur as the system kicks out heading into Sunday night.

Upslope snow may linger along and west of the Allegheny Front
into Monday morning, as will the potential for some light snow
or freezing drizzle near and east of I-95.

The probabilities for significant snow and ice remain very high.

The most likely area for the highest snowfall totals is across
northern MD and over VA near and west of the Blue Ridge. Chances
for a foot of snow remain quite high along/west of the Blue
Ridge up to northern MD. Further south and east, mixing may
ultimately put a lid on just how high snowfall totals get,
though lift through the DGZ and therefore snowfall rates prior
to any mixing look impressive.

Regarding ice, areas from central VA to southern MD and up the
I-95 corridor have the highest probabilities of icing.

The combination of heavy snow and ice alongside prolonged very
cold temperatures presents a unique and significant risk to life
and property across virtually the entire region.

Monitor the latest forecasts at weather.gov/lwx/winter for
updates on this situation. Now is the time to make preparations
for the storm. This includes getting any necessary groceries or
medicines that you may not be able to access this weekend into
early next week due to any potential closure. Have an emergency
kit in the car including extra batteries, a flashlight, and
blanket just in case you get stranded. Make sure to refuel or
charge your car before the storm hits. Check on elderly friends,
family, and neighbors and don`t forget about pets or livestock
during this prolonged cold period.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Frigid temperatures this weekend and into much
of next week.

With the hemispheric pattern showing near meridional flow extending
southward from the poles, multiple bouts of very cold temperatures
are likely this weekend into much of next week. This may even cause
some daily temperature records to be broken for extreme
daytime/overnight cold. Please see the Climate section below for
more information these records.

As of the early morning hours, an Arctic cold front is tracking
across the lower Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. In the wake of
this boundary, widespread below zero temperatures are being observed
across the north-central U.S. Robust high pressure is noted over
Alberta with pressures just above 1050 mb. While this air mass will
modify in time, the surge of frigid air mass is certainly something
all will notice. Temperatures are likely to come crashing down
Friday evening while winds pick up in strength. By Friday night,
overnight lows across the area plunge down into the single digits
with readings just below zero along the Allegheny Front. Adding the
wind to the picture, wind chills drop into the -5F to -15F range
which warranted Cold Weather Advisories for the entire region into
Saturday morning.

As mentioned the cold weather is here to stay throughout the weekend
and into much of next week. Arctic high pressure settles to the
north, while the familiar cold air damming signature becomes evident
in the isobaric pattern. This sets the stages for surface cold air
to remain in place throughout the winter storm. Temperatures
slightly moderate during this storm given the extensive cloud cover
and precipitation.

Heading into the new work week, northwesterly winds pick up in
earnest on Monday as the weekend system pushes off the Atlantic
coast. This again contributes to a much colder feel to the air given
the wind chill factor. As the next strong dome of high pressure
moves in from the central U.S., Monday night might be the coldest
night of the year. The current forecast package calls for most to
sit close to the 0 degree mark with wind chills crashing below zero.
Across the Allegheny front, such wind chills fall into the -20F to -
30F range. Frigid nights continue through the week, especially in
light of the prolonged snow/ice pack on the ground. Temperatures are
not expected to go above freezing throughout the forecast
period.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a quick round of light snow by
mid-week.

While deterministic models are all over the place with this next
system, there is certainly a non-zero threat of additional snowfall
across the region within the Wednesday through Thursday timeframe.
This comes in the form of a rather expansive upper low that drops
down from around Saskatchewan and Manitoba. This is a rather
progressive system which is likely in the form of a clipper. One
thing that is for certain is the thermal profiles would support all
snow if this materializes. Uncertainty still remains high but this
next system bears some watching.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions today. Winds will become northwesterly as a
strong Arctic front pushes through the region. Gusts of 20 to
perhaps 30 kts can be expected along and directly behind the
frontal passage this afternoon into tonight.

Sub-VFR conditions return from the southwest Saturday afternoon
before spreading northeast Saturday evening into Saturday night.
This is in relation to a high impact major winter storm that will
impact the Mid-Atlantic region. The main window for heavy snow
accumulation will be between 00z/7pm Saturday through 18z/1pm Sunday
with some mixed precip possible Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon
especially at terminals south/east of DCA. Precip should largely end
by or shortly after 06Z/1am Monday. Plan for travel delays and
cancellations that may linger into the first half of next week.

After a lengthy period of restrictions, the winter storm will
gradually pull away from the coast early Monday. Some residual low
ceilings are possible on Monday morning, particularly across the
eastern terminals. Expect marked improvements thereafter with VFR
conditions likely to continue through Tuesday. Initial winds behind
the system will be northwesterly with gusts up to 20 to 30 knots.
Winds decrease into Tuesday with a shift to southwesterly flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA criteria winds are expected this morning.

Northwest winds gust 20 to 25 knots over the waters this
afternoon and persist through the overnight. Cold temperatures
may lead to possible freezing spray, especially as winds
approach gale- force tonight.

Gusty winds and freezing spray likely linger through the weekend
as a major winter storm tracks across the region.

Northeast winds on Sunday shift to northwest on Monday with SCA
criteria winds possible both days. Winds will be greatest on Monday,
gusting near Gale conditions across the open waters of the
Chesapeake Bay. Freezing spray remains likely Sunday and Monday.

As the winter storm moves offshore, northwesterly winds increase
markedly through the day on Monday. Gale conditions look possible
across portions of the waters, especially the Chesapeake Bay,
through late Monday. Eventually winds decrease into the night and
Tuesday, but Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through at
least Tuesday morning. Sub-advisory winds return to the picture for
the rest of Tuesday while winds shift to southwesterly.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Blowout tides are expected tonight through the first half of
next week. Water levels are expected to bottom out at 1 to 2 ft
below MLLW Saturday morning and may extend into Monday as NW
winds strengthen.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are some daily temperature records during the January 24-27,
2026 timeframe:

A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A `!` sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.

                   ***SATURDAY, JANUARY 24TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        18F (1948)             3F (1963)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          21F (2014)!           -2F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  17F (1948)             1F (1963)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     21F (2014)+!           4F (1963)
Martinsburg (MRB)                13F (1948)            -4F (1963)+
Charlottesville (CHO)            23F (2014)+!           5F (1963)
Annapolis (NAK)                  18F (1948)!            2F (1963)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 12F (1936)            -5F (1963)+

                  ***SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        16F (1897)             3F (1935)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          18F (1987)            -5F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  17F (1987)+            0F (1897)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     20F (2004)+            8F (1961)
Martinsburg (MRB)                16F (2004)+           -4F (1936)
Charlottesville (CHO)            19F (2004)+            5F (1948)
Annapolis (NAK)                  19F (1961)             3F (1987)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 15F (2004)           -15F (1935)

                 ***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        17F (1961)             5F (1948)+
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          21F (1966)             3F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  17F (1961)             2F (1961)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     19F (1961)            13F (1982)!
Martinsburg (MRB)                12F (1961)           -10F (1948)
Charlottesville (CHO)            13F (1961)             9F (1922)!
Annapolis (NAK)                  18F (1961)             5F (1905)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 15F (1961)           -12F (1948)

                 ***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION                   RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR)  RECORD LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA)        22F (1961)             6F (1935)
Washington-Dulles (IAD)          22F (2003)            -9F (1987)
Baltimore (BWI)                  21F (1918)             3F (1987)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)     22F (1961)            13F (1982)!
Martinsburg (MRB)                17F (1971)            -6F (1987)
Charlottesville (CHO)            18F (1961)             0F (1982)
Annapolis (NAK)                  22F (1961)             5F (1927)
Hagerstown (HGR)                 17F (1907)           -10F (1987)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for DCZ001.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
     morning for DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     MDZ008.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-501>510.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
     morning for MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for MDZ003>006-503-505-507.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053>057-501>508-
     526-527.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
     morning for VAZ053>057-527.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-526.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for VAZ503-504.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for WVZ050>053-055.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for WVZ501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ530.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
     morning for ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 PM EST this evening
     for ANZ532-533-540-541.
     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/CPB
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/CPB
MARINE...AVS/KLW/CPB