Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

372
FXUS61 KLWX 080731
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
331 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Main changes to the morning forecast were to remove POPs this
morning, as the front has largely underperformed in that
department thus far overnight. Otherwise, forecast remains on
track at this point.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely this evening
  into tonight.

- 2) A strong cold front set to impact the region late Wednesday
  into Thursday could cause significant precipitation/thunderstorms
  as well as a sharp drop in temperatures by the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A few lingering showers, and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two, are possible this afternoon along a slow-
moving cold front.

The cold front pushes through by this afternoon, with skies
clearing from northwest to southeast. A few showers are
possible, mainly along and east of the I-95 corridor. Best
chance along I-95 is early afternoon, but will quickly sift
south and east. Most of the area should see sunshine for a few
hours late afternoon as sunset is an hour later with EDT
returning. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

Closer to normal temperatures tonight in the 40s.

Very warm and dry to start next week as highs reach the 70s,
with low 80s possible in central VA Tuesday.


KEY MESSAGE 2..A strong cold front set to impact the region late Wednesday
into Thursday could cause significant precipitation/thunderstorms as
well as a sharp drop in temperatures by the end of the week.

A strong cold front set to impact the region late
Wednesday into Thursday could cause significant
precipitation/thunderstorms as well as a sharp drop in temperatures
by the end of the week.

18z model guidance continues to show a deep upper trough forming
over the Great Lakes region before pushing northeast in the late
Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, allowing a significant cold front to
pass through the region during then. Wednesday will likely still see
lingering warm temperatures before a 20-30 degree drop occurs by
Thursday night when cold air advection finally moves through.
Compared to the 70-80 degree highs anticipated early in the week,
highs will likely fall to the 40s-50s with anticipated lows once
again ranging below freezing. Gusts are also anticipated to fall in
the 20-30 knot range across the CWA, allowing for potentially even
colder wind chills especially over the mountains.

The other component of this system is the anticipated precipitation
set to come out of it, which could range from heavy rain to
thunderstorms to snow/wintry mix over the mountains once
temperatures hit below freezing. The thunderstorm threat is most
likely west of the Blue Ridge mountains as the front progresses,
although exact timing and the resulting instability/shear still
leaves significant uncertainty in the total severe threat overall.
Looking ahead, a second cold front could also pass through the area
next weekend, providing additional chances for rain and springtime
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The majority of the terminals are VFR at this time, as low
clouds/fog are largely relegated to northeast MD. MTN is the
main exception, with dense fog advecting west off the Chesapeake
Bay. Some drizzle also lingers over BWI, where some minimal VSBY
restrictions are observed. Both should clear around daybreak as
the warm front lifts out of the region ahead of an approaching
cold front.

The cold front pushes through the area later this afternoon,
then VFR conditions prevail Sunday night through Tuesday. Some
showers are possible with daytime heating along the boundary,
but only have PROB30s in some of the TAFs at this time.

VFR conditions will prevail tonight through much of Wednesday.

Sub-VFR conditions across terminals are likely starting late
Wednesday and throughout Thursday corresponding to a significant
cold front expected to pass through the region during then. Expect
lowered/reduced CIGs and VSBYs, as well as strong gusts up to 30
knots Thursday afternoon. Winds will start to decrease by Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have largely diminished over the waters, with any
lingering SCA gusts in the middle Bay and lower Potomac. These
should continue to diminish throughout the morning, with SCAs
likely allowed to drop as scheduled. With such warm surface
temps, may be a struggle to get much in the way of SCA gusts
down this afternoon, but along/south of the cold front, some
showers and perhaps a storm could bring down some 20-30 knot
gusts. These will be best handles with an MWS if they do occur.

Sub-SCA winds prevail Sunday night through Tuesday as the front
dissipates over the region and high pressure builds.

Strong gusts between 24-30 knots on Thursday make SCAs likely then
at this time. A shift from southerly to northwesterly winds could
occur sometime between Thursday and Friday as a cold front passes
through. Winds should start to decrease somewhat on Friday, but may
still be elevated ahead of an additional cold front expected to
impact the region later into next weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530-531-
     538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ531-532-535-536-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ533-
     534-537-541>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/KRR/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/KRR/SRT
MARINE...CJL/KRR/SRT