Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

588
FXUS61 KLWX 021353
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
853 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have continued to trim back the Cold Weather Advisories as
temperatures slowly rise. Monitoring incoming guidance regarding
light snow threat late Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as an
Arctic front at the end of the week (Friday).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A clipper-like system will bring very light snow Tuesday
  evening.

- 2) Another Arctic front arrives Friday bringing additional
  chances for snow, followed by bitter cold Arctic air next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A clipper-like system will bring very light snow Tuesday
evening.

After a brief warmup today and Tue, models continue to converge
on a weak low pressure system passing south of the area Tuesday
evening. Trends during the past 24 hrs show system moving
faster across the area Tue evening, about 6 hours earlier than
24 hours ago, with the main window of opportunity for
accumulating snow between 00Z-06Z Wed. Some guidance suggest
snow could begin as early as mid Tue afternoon. Given the short
duration of the event, the ceiling for accumulating snow is not
high with up to two inches east of the Blue Ridge and up to
three inches in the Allegheny Mountains. For now, the most
likely accumulation is around half inch across the Baltimore and
Washington metro areas with up to a coating possible south of
Charlottesville where some mixing with or all rain is possible.
Given the low probabilities of 0.1" of QPF, not anticipating
this precip event will require any Winter Wx Advisories other
than in the mountain areas. On the other hand, if the precip
were to arrive sooner on Tue afternoon, more marginal
temperatures may cut down more on accumulations. The snow should
be out of the area by 12Z Wed, likely sooner given recent
trends. Turning colder Wed as system departs the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another Arctic front arrives Friday bringing additional
chances for snow, followed by bitter cold Arctic air next weekend.

After a reprieve from the bouts of Arctic air, another pattern
change unfolds toward the end of the week and into the weekend.
The mid/upper flow turns more meridional in nature which allows
modified Arctic air to stream southward to the central/eastern
U.S. In particular, an anomalous upper low drops down from the
high latitudes before descending upon southeastern Canada into
New England. Characterized by 500-mb height anomalies around 2
standard deviations below average, the accompanying Arctic front
crosses the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. This is followed by
a secondary cold front that moves through late Friday.

In the net, the shift in pattern favors a cold and blustery day on
Saturday. Forecast highs will mainly be in the 20s with upper single
digits to teens across the mountains. While most see wind chills in
the single digits, those in the Alleghenies can expect values in the
-15F to -25F range. By Saturday night, forecast lows are in the single
 digits again with dangerously low wind chills overnight. Well
 below average temperatures continue into Sunday, and likely
 into early next week based on the Climate Prediction Center
 hazardous temperature outlook.

In terms of snow, a number of the deterministic models show some
chances for snow across the region on Friday. While the forecast
package calls for 20 to 40 percent chances, the higher confidence is
along the Allegheny Front where probabilities are around 50 to 70
percent. Given the degree of winds with this frontal passage, some
threat for blowing snow looks likely across these mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NW winds gusting up to 22 kt through early afternoon, then
diminishing to less than 10 kt, and becoming light and variable
tonight. Weak clipper-like system will bring light snow to the
terminals Tue evening, quickly exiting the area after midnight
Tue night. Some flight restrictions are possible Tue evening.

VFR conditions are likely for Thursday with primarily northwesterly
winds expected. By Friday, another Arctic front pushes across the
region which may be accompanied by some light snow. If this threat
materializes, some restrictions would be possible. In response to
this front, winds shift to southwesterly over to northwesterly by
Friday evening into the night. This comes with increasingly gusty
winds later that night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be on the downward trend today especially after 19Z
and should fall below SCA by evening. Light winds tonight and
Tue. Possible SCA again Wed behind departing clipper-like
system.

On Thursday, northwesterly winds will gust to around 15 knots or so,
but should fall short of Small Craft Advisories. Winds move to
southwesterly on Friday before shifting to northwesterly by Friday
evening. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed during this
pattern shift, with even some gales possible into Friday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ509-
     510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ503.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ501-
     505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/BRO/DHOF