Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

057
FXUS61 KLWX 081957
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
357 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Clouds forecast to linger longer in the stout marine layer.
High temperatures were nudged down Tuesday and Wednesday owing
to possible cloud cover. Began messaging potential for isolated
severe thunderstorms Thursday and Friday due to a high CAPE/high
DCAPE environment.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) High pressure brings near normal temperatures through
  Tuesday.

- 2) Hot, humid conditions and scattered thunderstorms return
  late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure brings near normal temperatures
through Tuesday.

High pressure is positioned near the New Jersey coast this
afternoon. Low level marine moisture has been more persistent
and expansive than originally forecast. It still appears the
clouds should thin out by this evening as boundary layer mixing
decreases and the high continues to drift southward. It`s
possible some clouds could become banked up against the central
Virginia Blue Ridge and Alleghenies, although high level clouds
will be increasing overnight as well. Dew points will reach
their minimum tonight, so temperatures will be more comfortable
in the 50s compared to the rest of the week.

The high will drift east off the Mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday
while a shortwave trough approaches from the west. There will
likely be a lot of mid and high level clouds through the day.
Combined with the residual airmass from the offshore high,
temperatures in most places will be limited to the mid 80s, with
dew points only gradually climbing through the day. The
shortwave may combine with orographic lift and some weak
instability to produce a few showers and thunderstorms across
the Allegheny Mountains during the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot, humid conditions and scattered thunderstorms
return late this week.

A warm front will lift across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The isentropic ascent combined with the gradual
passage of the shortwave trough may mean some showers and
isolated thunderstorms move across the area Tuesday night. There
might be a bit of subsidence behind the wave Wednesday morning,
but continued moisture advection will likely result in a good
deal of cloud cover and possibly some showers. The amount of
cloud cover may make the difference as to whether temperatures
stay in the 80s or top 90. It will definitely be more humid
though, and some steeper lapse rates aloft may result in some
notable instability building by afternoon. Forcing mechanisms
remain in question, but most guidance has some potential for
more showers and thunderstorms. Shear will be modest, but can`t
totally rule out some stronger storms.

Low-level southwesterly flow will advect a very hot and humid
airmass into the area for the end of the week, with temperatures
climbing into the 90s and dewpoints reaching into the upper 60s and
lower 70s. This will result in heat indices climbing into the upper
90s to low 100s on both Thursday and Friday afternoon.

Upper level ridging is expected to build overhead on Thursday, with
several models also showing a shortwave disturbance passing through
the top of the ridge. How this disturbance evolves will have a large
impact on our forecast locally. If the disturbance passes through
early in the day, we could have large scale subsidence and
relatively low coverage of showers and thunderstorms. If it were to
approach at peak heating, we could have a much greater coverage of
thunderstorms. Upstream convection will likely have a large impact
on how that disturbance evolves, so confidence in the forecast
details on Thursday is lower than normal. What models are in good
agreement about, is that the background environment will be highly
unstable (CAPE values likely in excess of 3000 J/kg). There will
also be enough dry air in the mid-levels to support strong
downdrafts (DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg), and just enough shear
(around 20 kt) to give storms some weak organization. Such an
environmental setup is common in many of our more impactful summer
severe thunderstorm events. As a result, there appears to be a
conditional threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. That threat
for severe thunderstorms may continue on Friday as a shortwave
disturbance passes to our northwest through the Great Lakes causing
the upper ridge to break down and a surface cold front to approach
from the northwest. With greater synoptic scale forcing, confidence
in the occurrence of storms is higher on Friday, but instability
might be slightly lesser. Machine learning guidance is very bullish
on the severe thunderstorms threat for both Thursday and Friday. We
will continue to monitor this potential threat over the upcoming
days.

A cold front will move through Friday night, advecting drier low-
level (dewpoints dropping to around 60) and mid-level air into the
region. While it will still be hot, conditions are expected to stay
remain dry during the day Saturday. Forecast uncertainty begins to
increase substantially by Sunday, but most solutions favor dry
conditions. For now, the forecast has around a 30 percent chance for
afternoon thunderstorms across much of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Even though ceilings are hanging around longer and are a bit
more expansive than expected, bases have lifted to VFR. Still
expecting these clouds to be scattering out by this evening.
While a low probability, it`s possible the residual moisture
could bank along the central Virginia Blue Ridge tonight, which
may bring some borderline MVFR ceilings near CHO. Easterly winds
may occasionally gust 15-20 kt into this evening before becoming
light and southerly by daybreak Tuesday.

VFR conditions are expected Tuesday with southerly winds. A few
gusts could reach 20 kt by the afternoon. A warm front will lift
through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. While the exact
details are uncertain, there may be some sub-VFR ceilings and
scattered showers during this time. Some thunderstorms are also
possible Wednesday.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Thursday and Friday,
but temporary restrictions may occur either afternoon as
thunderstorms move through. Winds will generally be out of the
southwest on Thursday, and then south on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure is drifting southward from the New Jersey coast
through tonight. There has been a bit of a break in the winds
early this afternoon, but onshore flow will briefly increase
heading into this evening, with gusts of 15-25 knots
anticipated. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters.

Winds become a bit lighter and more southeasterly tonight into
Tuesday morning, before a prolonged period of southerly
flow/channeling brings more gusty conditions Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. It`s borderline whether any advisories
will be needed Tuesday afternoon, but they appear more probable
by Tuesday night. Some showers or thunderstorms may reach the
waters late Tuesday night, with a greater chance developing
Wednesday.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected on both Thursday and Friday. Winds
will generally be out of the southwest on Thursday, and then out of
the south on Friday. Special Marine Warnings may be needed on both
Thursday and Friday afternoon as thunderstorms move over the
waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A somewhat prolonged period of southerly flow will result in
rising tidal anomalies Tuesday through Wednesday night. The
typically more aggressive guidance (CBOFS, SFAS) shows potential
for solid minor flooding at Annapolis by mid week, with minor
flooding possible along other vulnerable shoreline areas (Havre
de Grace and Alexandria, for example).

The higher guidance may be warranted in this case given onshore
flow through tonight pushing water into the Chesapeake Bay,
then southerly flow holding it/pushing it northward into our
neck of the woods through mid week.

Despite the favorable flow pattern, relatively lower
astronomical tides due to a third quarter/waning gibbous today
and relatively modest wind magnitudes should keep the threat for
moderate tidal flooding low.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures are expected to soar to as much as 15 to 20 degrees
above normal Thursday and Friday. This approaches or exceeds
daily record values at some sites.

Below is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures
for June 11th and 12th (Thursday and Friday).

=================================================================
            June 11th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows
=================================================================
Site            Record High                 Record Warm Low
DCA          101 F (set in 1911)      74 F (set in 2020 +6 others)
IAD           95 F (set in 2016)           72 F (set in 2005)
BWI           99 F (set in 1911)           75 F (set in 1914)
DMH          100 F (set in 1984)           79 F (set in 1984)
NAK           96 F (set in 2000)           79 F (set in 1973)
HGR           97 F (set in 1911)           73 F (set in 2005)
MRB          101 F (set in 1911)      71 F (set in 1927 and 1922)
CHO           99 F (set in 1911)           76 F (set in 2020)

=================================================================
            June 12th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows
=================================================================
Site            Record High                 Record Warm Low
DCA     95 F (set in 2017 +6 others)       77 F (set in 2015)
IAD           96 F (set in 1986)           72 F (set in 1986)
BWI     96 F (set in 1986 and 1914)        77 F (set in 1947)
DMH     96 F (set in 2025 +2 others)  77 F (set in 2017 and 2015)
NAK           98 F (set in 1914)      77 F (set in 2000 and 1973)
HGR     92 F (set in 2017 +5 others)  71 F (set in 2010 +5 others)
MRB     97 F (set in 1938 and 1933)        73 F (set in 1914)
CHO           98 F (set in 1914)      72 F (set in 1947 +2 others)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>533-
     535>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/KJP
AVIATION...ADS/KJP
MARINE...ADS/KJP