Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

631
FXUS61 KLWX 191916
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
316 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Risk of significant severe weather seems to be increasing for
Tuesday, but diminishing for Wednesday due to faster timing of
front.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Smoke concentrations will continue through this evening before
  diminishing late tonight; quiet weather expected Monday;
  showers and thunderstorms return Monday night into Tue
  morning.

- A strong cold front and trough of low pressure will likely bring
  strong to severe storms Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Smoke concentrations will continue through this evening before
diminishing late tonight; quiet weather expected Monday;
showers and thunderstorms return Monday night into Tue morning.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Isolated to scattered showers across the VA Piedmont will
continue to dwindle as instability wanes and dry air advection
continues on NW wind. Smoke will continue to impact skies and
air quality across the region through this evening with smoke
concentrations diminishing per HRRR forecasts.

High pressure builds over the area tonight supporting dry and
cooler conditions.

Strong moisture return Monday night could result in some
showers and thunderstorms spreading northward with time.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front and trough of low pressure will likely
bring strong to severe storms Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Guidance continues to show an anomalous upper-level trough building
over the area, and the cold front associated with this system will
approach Tuesday before passing through the area Wednesday.

There still remains uncertainty in timing and placement of upper
trough and front, but hot and humid air ahead of the front along
with lower heights and a strong wind field aloft increases the
threat for severe thunderstorms.

SPC outlooks already have our area in a slight to enhanced risk
Tuesday, and a 15% near and east of Interstate 95 for Wednesday. ML
guidance highlights Tuesday as well, with some even showing higher
probabilities. Damaging winds will likely be the primary threat with
storms, although other hazards cannot be ruled out if supercells
develop.

Behind this system will be lower humidity and cooler than normal
temperatures for the second half of next week with high pressure
returning to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected most of the time Tuesday through
Thursday, but strong to severe thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and
possible Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Strengthening southerly flow Monday evening into Wednesday
morning will result in SCA conditions.

A southwest flow is expected ahead of a cold front Tuesday into
Wednesday. An SCA will likely be needed since there will be a
stronger gradient for this time of year. Strong to severe storms are
likely Tuesday afternoon/evening and possible Wednesday
afternoon/evening.  High pressure will build in behind the cold
front for Thursday with a northerly flow. Winds may approach SCA
criteria, but confidence is low.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Increasing southerly flow from Monday evening into Tuesday
will lead to water levels reaching Action stages, but minor
flooding is not expected at this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ028.
WV...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ050>053-
     501>504.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJL/LFR
AVIATION...BJL/LFR
MARINE...BJL/LFR