Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

124
FXUS61 KLWX 141823
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
223 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased the chance for thunder Monday morning as thunderstorms
move into the area in the wake of a warm front. Continue to
monitor the severe weather threat for Monday as a potent cold
front pushes across the mid-atlantic.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong cold front pushes across the forecast area
 Monday, bringing gusty winds and potential for severe
 thunderstorms capable of producing significant damaging winds
 and tornadoes.

- 2) Dry, gusty winds continue across the area through this
  afternoon.

- 3) Unseasonably Cold Conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front pushes across the forecast area
 Monday, bringing gusty winds and potential for severe
 thunderstorms capable of producing significant damaging winds
 and tornadoes.

Precipitation chances begin increasing Sunday as a potent low
pressure system traverses across the Great Lakes into Canada,
pushing the associated fronts across the Mid-Atlantic. The
associated warm front lifts through the area Sunday night with the
cold front tracking across the region during the day Monday. Aloft,
a robust trough digs across the central CONUS, becoming slightly
negatively tilted as it approaches and pivots across the east coast
Monday. This will push the aforementioned cold front across the
forecast area, bringing impactful weather throughout the day.

In the wake of the warm front lifting through Sunday night, high
temperatures on Monday will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Additionally, with southerly flow, dewpoints rise into the upper
50s to low 60s across much of the forecast area ahead of the
cold front. Storms may initiate Monday morning with any
shower/storm capable of producing gusty winds due to a strong
wind field aloft. Later Monday morning and into the afternoon,
storms develop along the cold front as it moves through from
west to east. Damaging winds are likely with severe storms
capable of producing significant damaging wind and tornadoes.
With such a strong wind field aloft, there is the potential for
wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph within severe storms.

Current model guidance shows 300-400 m2/s2 SRH and up to 1400
J/kg SBCAPE which is compatible with a tornado risk across the
area. SPC has the forecast area along and east of the I-81
corridor in an enhanced risk for severe weather with the rest of
the forecast area in a slight risk. PWATS will be seasonably
high, although a fast storm motion limits the flooding risk.

Outside of convective wind gusts, a tight pressure gradient will
lead to gusty winds ahead of and behind the front. Cold air will
be rushing in immediately following the frontal passage. At a
minimum, the Allegheny Mountains will change to snow for a time
in upslope conditions. It remains uncertain if any post-frontal
precipitation lingers to the east long enough to change over.
For now, have a trace across the forecast area as temperatures
plummet with lingering precipitation.

Cold and windy conditions linger into Tuesday with the upper trough
overhead. Tuesday night will likely be the coldest night of the
stretch with widespread temperatures in the teens and 20s. A warming
trend will then take place the remainder of the week as surface high
pressure slides off the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry, gusty winds continue across the area through this
 afternoon.

As the trough and associated low pressure system swing across
New England, residual gusty westerly winds continue over the
Mid-Atlantic region. Most high-resolution models favor keeping a
brunt of the stronger winds north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Thus,
have kept wind gusts around 20 to 30 mph, locally up to 40 mph
across the Allegheny ridges. These should gradually weaken ahead
of sundown as convective mixing slowly abates. High pressure
briefly returns with tonight`s lows in the 30s.

Winds remain on the breezy side into Sunday, but with a shift to
southeasterlies as the region settles into a cold air damming
setup. Wind gusts will again be around 20 to 30 mph, but with
higher humidity aided by the onshore component to the wind. This
also comes with an expanding shield of warm advection rain which
arrives later in the day.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Unseasonably Cold Conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Below normal temperatures are likely to overspread the region
Tuesday into Wednesday behind a powerful FROPA early in the week.
Highs in the 30s to low 40s Tuesday (with below freezing temps in
the mountains) moderate some to the 30s to 40s on Tuesday. The
coldest night of the week is likely to be Tuesday night when lows
drop to the teens to low 20s.

Tuesday is likely to be blustery as northwest winds gust around 25-
35 mph during the afternoon. Reasonable higher gusts around 40-50
mph are possible if deeper mixing occurs by help of the departing
upper trough and downsloping off the higher terrain. This keeps wind
chills in the 20s for much of the day Tuesday.

Temperatures moderate through the end of next week with mostly dry
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions continue today and through the day tomorrow as
surface high pressure remains overhead. Gusty northwest winds
this afternoon diminish around sunset before becoming light and
variable overnight. Winds shift to southeasterly Sunday morning
as surface high pressure shifts offshore. Precipitation chances
increase as a warm front lifts through the terminals. Sub-VFR
conditions are possible beginning Sunday night during
precipitation. Winds shift to southerly in the wake of the warm
front Monday before winds shift to northwesterly in the wake of
a cold front.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely during strong thunderstorms late
Monday morning and through the afternoon. Storms will be capable
of producing significant damaging wind gusts between 70 and
80mph and tornadoes. Behind the cold front, VFR conditions
return with gusty northwest winds continuing overnight.

VFR conditions likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Northwest winds gust
around 25-30 knots for much of Tuesday morning to afternoon, then
winds diminish Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across all waters as
winds gust up to 25 knots. Winds diminish this evening with the
Small Craft Advisory expiring at 6PM. Winds remain below SCA
criteria overnight before increasing Sunday morning. Additional
SCAs are likely Sunday with gusty winds continuing through
Monday. South winds Sunday shift to northwest in the wake of a
cold front Monday. As the cold front pushes across the waters
Monday afternoon and into the evening, strong to severe
thunderstorms are likely with damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes possible. SMWs may be needed as the front crosses the
waters. In the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest winds
will lead to additional Small Craft Advisories Monday night.

Hazardous marine conditions are likely to continue into Tuesday
afternoon behind a strong cold front. Northwest winds gust 25-30
knots across the waters, then decrease steadily Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night. Sub-SCA conditions likely for Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will be the driest day regionwide, behind the frontal
passage from earlier this morning. RH values could drop into
the upper teens to 20s across much of the area. Winds will be
lower compared to Friday, but will remain somewhat elevated,
especially along/north of the Interstate 66 corridor, where
20-35 mph wind gusts can be expected. A Special Weather
Statement may be needed. Given wetting rains on Thursday, fuel
moistures might be elevated enough to quell any widespread fire
danger.

Gusty winds but increasing RHs are forecast Sunday ahead of another
front, which looks to bring wetting rains Sunday evening/night.
There is less of a threat Sunday, but any ongoing fires could feel
the impacts of some gusty southeasterly flow (20-30 mph gusts).
Showers and thunderstorms look likely on Monday before strong west-
northwesterly winds overspread the area Monday evening into
Tuesday. High pressure returns by the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Increasing southerly winds ahead of a powerful cold front will cause
a quick rise in tide levels across the Chesapeake Bay and tidal
Potomac River. Sensitive locations are likely to reach or be close
to minor flood during the Monday afternoon/evening high tide.
Annapolis is forecast to be well within minor flood stage, and could
reach moderate flooding if southerly flow is stronger as some of the
model guidance suggests. If confidence increases, a Coastal Flood
Watch may need to be issued tonight or tomorrow. Water levels
quickly drop Monday night as offshore winds take hold behind the
front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/KRR
AVIATION...AVS/KRR
MARINE...AVS/KRR