Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

192
FXUS61 KLWX 131937
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
237 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued Freeze Warnings for tonight for zones outside the metros that
are still in the growing season. This will be the last Frost/Freeze
product issued for 2026 until the Spring 2027 growing season
commences.

Extended Small Craft Advisories for the Chesapeake Bay through
Sunday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Brisk conditions expected through this weekend with
  scattered mountain snow showers over the Alleghenies.

- 2) Dry conditions and below normal temperatures continue
  through Tuesday with warmer temperatures mid to late next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Brisk conditions expected through this weekend
with scattered mountain snow showers over the Alleghenies.

Most shower activity from this week`s low pressure system has
transitioned well to the northeast, with showers tracking
across eastern PA, NY, and across NJ. As these showers continue
to rotate about the center axis, a few additional showers could
move into northeastern MD later this evening before diminishing
again overnight. Furthermore, after the first snow resulting in
a light accumulation yesterday across portions of the
Alleghenies, additional scattered snow showers are possible
tonight through Sunday morning. Highest chances for accumulation
will likely be focused near western Garrett County and
surrounding areas, with up to an additional 0.5" accumulation
possible.

As the broad system gradually tracks offshore, clouds may be slow to
clear during the weekend until the start of next week. In the wake
of the system`s stemming cold front, temperatures will be noticeably
colder over the next several days along with gusty winds that will
persist through the weekend, creating overall brisk conditions
outside. Daily highs through the weekend range in the 40s and 50s,
with cooler temperatures over the mountains, as well as strong
northwesterly winds gusting up to 20-30 knots at times, potentially
stronger at high elevations. Overnight, temperatures range in the
20s and 30s. A Freeze Warning has been issued for eastern counties
still in the growing season for tonight, with the 2026 growing
season ending thereafter. Overall, expect nighttime freezing to near-
freezing temperatures to persist over the next several days, with
winds diminishing sometime between late Sunday and Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions and below normal temperatures
continue through Tuesday with warmer temperatures mid to late next
week.

Looking a quiescent weather pattern for much of the new workweek. No
hazardous weather is expected with dry conditions and moderating
temperatures. The upper-level trough will exit east of the area
Monday with a building upper-level ridge as surface high
pressure pushes east from the Ohio River Valley. 1032-1036 mb
high pressure will meander west of the area Monday before
shunting south toward west-central VA and southwest VA midweek.
The high will drift offshore Thursday into Friday leading to
further warming into the upcoming weekend as the ridge continues
to build.

As a result, expect winds decrease substantially from what we saw
over the weekend as the high settles nearby. Temperatures will
remain below normal under north to northwesterly flow through
Tuesday before winds shift to the west and south late next week.
Given the surface high nearby and lighter winds at the surface,
expect several nights of ample radiational cooling. This will
lead to widespread lows near or below freezing outside of the
urban centers and tidal shorelines. Since the growing season
ends November 15th, no additional frost/freeze headlines will be
issued.

High temperatures will push back into the mid to upper 50s Monday
(40s mountains) with mid to upper 60s late next week. Dry conditions
will persist through the weekend despite a potential trough/low
pressure system developing in the vicinity of southeast U.S.
coast. The pattern looks to potentially change once again before
the Thanksgiving holiday travel week. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated through the rest of the
day as most shower activity pushes to the northeast. There is a
chance that CIGs approach borderline MVFR at KBWI/KMTN later this
evening as a few remaining showers push through northeastern MD, but
chances of this diminish after 00Z tonight.

Outside of this, no significant precipitation is anticipated at
terminals for tonight & tomorrow. NW winds gusting up to 25 knots
this afternoon calm a bit overnight, but become gusty again
throughout the day Saturday, peaking up to 25-30 knots in the
afternoon at KDCA & KIAD. Gusts up to 20 knots remain possible
through Sunday afternoon before diminishing by Monday.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Monday through Friday next
week. Winds will taper out of the north and northwest Monday into
Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Winds will switch
back to the west and eventually south/southwest late week. Speeds
generally less than 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs continue through at least Sunday morning as gusty winds up to
20-30 knots persist across the Chesapeake Bay in the wake of a
strong cold front. Additional SCAs may be necessary until Monday
morning depending on how slow winds are to diminish. Winds across
the tidal Potomac are a bit weaker, diminishing some during the
overnight period and likely trending below SCA thresholds
during the daytime by Sunday. Winds generally flow northwesterly
through this period.

SCAs will likely continue for portions of the waters though Monday
with sub-SCA level conditions returning Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure settles nearby. No marine hazards are expected mid to
late week. Winds will remain out of the north and northwest Monday
into Tuesday before turning west to south late week at less than 15
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Over the next several days, breezy conditions continue with
afternoon RH values dipping into the 30s to low 40s in the valleys.
Wouldn`t be shocked to see some areas drop lower, perhaps closer to
the upper 20s in the typical dry spots in the valleys along and west
of the Blue Ridge.

Given recent fire activity in the past several days, there could be
some issues each afternoon when winds peak and RHs drop to their
lowest. Winds will begin to taper off Monday into Tuesday, but RHs
will remain low, and potentially even be a bit drier, so would not
be surprised if early next week has a day that needs closer
attention.

No precipitation is expected east of the Alleghenies through
late next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Saturday for
     MDZ005-006-008-016-505>508.
VA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Saturday for
     VAZ055-056.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535-
     536.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EST/SRT
AVIATION...EST/SRT
MARINE...EST/SRT
FIRE WEATHER...CJL/EST