Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

562
FXUS61 KLWX 100132
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
932 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted PoPs through the early morning hours based on latest
rain timing and model guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A cold front brings showers and a few thunderstorms through
  late in the week.

- 2) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue this weekend
  with hot temperatures return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings showers and a few thunderstorms
through late in the week.

Mid/upper jet forcing increases tonight through Thursday as a
surface cold front approaches from PA and WV. A line of thunderstorms
over the OH Valley are expected to approach the Appalachian
crest in weakening form around or shortly after midnight. This
activity should continue to readily weaken as it runs out of
instability and forcing as it moves eastward toward daybreak,
though some showers or sprinkles can`t be ruled out as far east
as the Baltimore/Washington metro down through the Virginia
foothills and central Shenandoah Valley early Thursday morning.
Otherwise a mild night is in store with southerly winds and
elevated dew points in place.

A strong but flattening mid/upper jet will swing by to the north
Thursday into Thursday night, with broad ascent in the right
entrance region overhead. Increasing fgen and an associated
frontal wave look to pivot west to east across north-central VA
late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, then move east of
the Chesapeake Bay overnight. Limited heating through abundant
clouds as well as poor lapse rates, high mid-level moisture and
modest moisture in the low levels due in part to downsloping
flow will all keep instability limited. The greatest CAPE will
likely be around 1000-1500 J/kg across central VA where the most
heating and highest low-level moisture content is anticipated.

Some storms may tend to cluster heading into tomorrow evening
given forcing along the front and increased flow aloft, but the
modest CAPE/DCAPE should keep any severe weather threat rather
limited for wind and hail. Still, can`t rule out a briefly
stronger, more organized rotating storm in the vicinity of the
front/wave in the evening across central VA to southern MD.

The front will slowly but steadily drop southward heading into
Friday. Some shower activity may linger or redevelop in the
vicinity of the front near the I-64 corridor, but most of the
time/area should be dry Friday unless the front slows down much
more significantly.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue
this weekend with hot temperatures return next week.

On Saturday, surface high pressure over New England shifts offshore
as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Surface winds shift
to southerly, ushering in a more humid airmass. With increased
humidity, showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday
although are expected to remain below severe criteria.

Going into next week, precipitation chances linger but remain low
(less than 30%). A low pressure system is currently forecast to
track across the Great Lakes with the associated cold fronts
impacting the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s
(upper 70s in the mountains) each day with high humidity values
yielding heat indices in the low 90s for mountain valley regions or
locations east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
South to southwest winds gust to around 20 knots continue at
some terminals this evening between high pressure offshore and
a cold front over the OH Valley. VFR should prevail through
much of the night, with a low chance of LLWS as a LLJ moves
overhead (though steady surface winds and not a ton of direction
change in the lowest couple thousand feet should keep that
threat low). Weakening shower activity will approach MRB around
08Z (timing as of the 00Z TAFs, but it could be slightly
quicker). There is some uncertainty how well this activity holds
together with eastward extent, but a light shower or sprinkle
is not totally out of the question around daybreak across the
metro terminals. At any rate, any ceiling or visibility
reductions would be minimal. It is worth noting some guidance
has MVFR ceilings nearing MRB for several hours Thursday morning
in the wake of the surface cold frontal passages.

Winds shift to the west and northwest Thursday as the cold
front crosses. Confidence for showers grows Thursday afternoon
and especially Thursday evening as a frontal wave moves
overhead. Thunderstorms are possible, especially across CHO
(where a PROB30 has been introduced) into southern MD, but
confidence is too low to include thunder this far out in the
metros.

Numerical guidance does not have a ton of fog/low
clouds later Thursday night into Friday morning after the
precip exits, but the MAV/MET have widespread dense fog and/or
low ceilings during this time. VFR should return by Friday
afternoon as winds shift to the north and then east, with the
potential for a shower or storm near KCHO as the front remains
stalled nearby to the south.

Daily afternoon precipitation chances could bring brief periods of
sub-VFR conditions this weekend. Gentle southerly winds continue
Saturday before weakening and turning to westerly by the end of the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds will increase overnight. Although the
direction probably won`t be exactly aligned with the main
channel of the Chesapeake Bay, some enhancement is still
anticipated. The strongest winds will be late this evening into
the overnight when gusts to around 30 knots are possible over
the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay into the eastern
tributaries. Some hi-res guidance even has brief gale conditions
which seems unlikely but will be monitored closely.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are anticipated late Thursday
into Thursday night. A few Special Marine Warnings are possible
especially south of Washington DC to Annapolis MD. Winds shift
to the west and northwest Thursday as a cold front crosses, then
shift to north and east through Friday as the front stalls to
the south.

Winds shift to southerly on Saturday with southerly channeling
yielding Small Craft Advisory criteria winds in the afternoon. Winds
diminish overnight and remain below SCA criteria on Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels will remain elevated (0.5 to 1 ft above normal)
through Thursday morning. Sensitive sites (like Annapolis)
could approach minor flood late tonight into early Thursday
morning, though west-of- south flow lowers confidence. More
notable water level decreases will occur Thursday behind a cold
front, before levels increase again by the weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>533-
     538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ534-537-
     543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/KVH
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/KVH
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/KVH