Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

654
FXUS61 KLWX 050751
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
251 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated timing and coverage of showers today as the cold front
pushes through. Curtailed PoPs Friday for locations; mainly east of
the Blue Ridge as the front stalls and wave of low pressure pushes
through. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Remaining warm with renewed rain chances through Friday.

- 2) Seasonably cool temperatures and mountain rain showers this
weekend; drying out with high pressure next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining warm with renewed rain chances through
Friday.

Synoptically, a broad upper level trough over the northern/eastern
Great Lakes will eject northeast into southern Ontario through
Friday. At the surface, is a lead shortwave trough/cold front which
looks to cross the area this morning and into the afternoon. Overall
shower coverage will remain scattered through mid-morning and
relatively light as we continue to fight off mid-level dry air from
broad high pressure pushing further out into the western Atlantic.
Most of the rain shower activity looks to occur through mid-morning
before a lull this afternoon and into the evening as the front
pushes east of the area.

By tonight, the front stalls somewhere along and east of I-95. The
front will lead to a steadier/heavier slug of rain across areas east
of the Blue Ridge (in particularly southern MD/northern neck of VA).
This is due largely in part to a wave of low pressure that will
develop along the front combined with a narrow band of low level
convergence as a jet streak develops (forces modest moisture
advection) overhead. Current guidance shows good agreement in regards
to the timing and placement of the boundary yielding rain amounts on
the order of 0.75-1.25" across southern MD and the northern neck of
VA. Locally higher totals up to 2" are possible over extreme
southern MD and northern neck of VA given the track of the low as it
pushes through. No flooding is expected given the 2+ week hiatus of
measurable rainfall and ongoing drought concerns. Locations along
and just east of I-95 will see rain amounts between a 0.25-0.50"
while locations further west will see less (0.10-0.30") given
downsloping west of the Blue Ridge.

The system the front and upper level trough kick offshore Friday
evening into Saturday morning yielding drier conditions. Upslope rain
showers and perhaps a few snow flakes will linger over the
Alleghenies within northwest flow. These rain showers won`t amount
to a whole lot as another wave of energy passes north of the
region.

The big thing to note will be the temperatures. Above normal highs
in the low to mid 70s are expected today with mid 60s and low 70s
Friday. These values cool into the 50s and mid 60s this weekend with
mountain highs only in the 40s. A colder airmass sweeps in behind
the front/trough Friday night as lows drop to the upper 30s to upper
40s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonably cool temperatures and mountain rain
showers this weekend; drying out with high pressure next week.

The first trough of low pressure and front will depart the area
Saturday morning with another upper level disturbance set to pass to
the north Saturday and Sunday. This disturbance will bring
upslope showers and perhaps a few flakes to the Alleghenies
with passing clouds further east. Conditions will remain breezy
out of the west and northwest with gusts between 15 to 25 kts.
Temperatures will also be noticeably cooler with highs in the
50s and low 60s Saturday and low to mid 60s Sunday. Overnight
lows will fall back into the 30s and 40s.

A weakened cold front will push across the region Monday morning
with a warm front set to push into the area Tuesday. This will be
followed by a stronger front mid to late week bringing back the
"True Fall" air to the region. Conditions will remain dry
overall as high pressure builds in from the southeastern U.S
Tuesday through Thursday next week (in a zonal flow pattern
aloft). Highs will range from the low to mid 60s Monday to upper
60s and low 70s Tuesday as the warm front passes through. Highs
will sink back into the 50s and low 60s midweek. Overnight lows
will remain in the 30s and 40s. Winds will decrease midweek
leading to potential frost and freeze conditions toward the I-95
metros where the growing season continues.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pockets of MVFR and high end IFR cigs are expected this morning as a
cold front pushes into the region. The front will bring scattered
showers with limited vsby reductions to the terminals through mid-
morning before a lull is expected this afternoon and evening. VFR to
MVFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening as the front
slowly stalls over/east the I-95 corridor. Winds will remain out of
the south and southwest today at 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20
kts during the late morning and early afternoon period. Winds will
lighten tonight while remaining out of the west and south at 5 to 10
kts. Highest gusts will be at terminals near the waters and along
the terrain ahead of/behind the immediate frontal passage. Did throw
in some LLWS within the corridor this morning through at least 10z
with winds south/southwest winds 30-35 kts 2kft AGL. This aligns
with several pieces of hi-gudiance picking on on this threat with
the lead shortwave trough ahead of the main frontal boundary.

Another round of low clouds and rain shower activity is expected
late tonight into Friday afternoon. The heaviest rain looks to be
just east of the I-95 corridor terminals. Even with that said, the
potential for low cigs and vsbys remain, especially at terminals
east of a line from MRB, SHD, and CHO. The front and wave of low
pressure moves offshore late Friday night into Saturday yielding
gradually improving conditions. Winds will transition to the north
and northwest at 5 to 15 kts.

VFR conditions Saturday through Monday. Winds northwest 10 to 20
knots gusts 25 knots generally in the period. A cold front passes
Monday morning with a warm front Tuesday leading to another wind
shift across the region. Remaining VFR through the middle of
next week as high pressure builds to the south.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is set to slowly move across the waters through Friday.
Ahead of the front will be a period of southerly channeling with
gusts 20-25 kts. Small Craft Advisories have been issued to
encompass this threat through this evening. Winds diminish tonight
into Friday with the cold front sweeping through Friday evening. SCA
conditions are likely in  the wake of the front Friday night into
Saturday. Widespread rain chances will accompany the front with
some heavier showers and perhaps a few t-storms over the open
waters as low pressure passes overhead.

Small Craft Advisories likely Saturday and Sunday. Small Craft
possible Monday. Winds northwest 15 to 20 knots gusts 25 to 30 knots.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies this morning are running around 0.50 to 0.75 feet.
Expect these to gradually rise in response to southerly flow ahead
of a cold front. This will bring a few locations into Action stage
through this afternoon before water levels drop behind the departing
cold front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EST
AVIATION...BRO/EST
MARINE...BRO/EST