014
FXUS61 KLWX 140739
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
339 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Made some slight adjustments to increase temps for today while
decreasing the dew points, in anticipation of a record warm
October day.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Record warmth expected today, with a few strong
thunderstorms possible.
- 2) Widespread frost/freeze likely this weekend, especially
west of I-95.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warmth expected today, with a few strong
thunderstorms possible.
Mid-level ridging centered over the Deep South today as a cold front
slowly approaches our area from the OH Valley. Near-record to record
warmth is expected today as highs reach well into the 80s. It is
possible a couple locations could hit 90F. See the climate section
below for a list of today`s record highs.
The cold front reach the Alleghenies this afternoon, the slides down
into the area tonight. There will be some instability given the very
warm temperatures and shear values should be able to support
organized thunderstorms, particularly along the front itself. A
severe storm or two with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat
are possible, mainly west of the Blue Ridge.
The front stalls over the region through Thursday morning, keeping
conditions much cooler and showery through Thursday evening. The
frontal boundary washes out Thursday night into Friday as high
pressure moves offshore of southern New England, which in turn
increases southerly winds over the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures shoot
back up to the low 80s Friday afternoon.
A powerful cold front begins tracking across the region; the
Fall season`s first true cold front. Gusty showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon. It will get very
breezy Friday afternoon as mid-level heights quickly fall and
the surface pressure gradient tightens in response to a
deepening low tracking to our north. Peak wind gusts of 35-45
mph are possible in the mountains, and 30-40 mph elsewhere. Wind
Advisories may be needed for some portion of the Alleghenies
and Blue Ridge Friday afternoon into Friday night. Showers and
some thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon ahead of the
front. If thunderstorms can tap into the increasing winds aloft,
there certainly could be a few strong to severe wind gusts.
A potent upper trough passes through the region Friday night,
bringing a reinforcing cold front that pushes out any lingering
precip.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread frost/freeze likely this weekend,
especially west of I-95.
After such a warm start to the fall, the cold truly will come
crashing in. Temps plummet to the 40s, with low to mid 30s in
the mountains, come sunrise Saturday. Wind chills in 20s for the
Alleghenies, and 30s to low 40s elsewhere.
NW`ly winds will gradually decrease Sat, with temps only forecast to
climb into the 50s (40s mtns). High pressure progged to build
overhead Sat night, resulting in clear skies and calm winds within
what will already be a cool background environment. This will be a
near ideal situation for radiational cooling. With Tds forecast to
be in the 20s and lower 30s, it appears as though a freeze may be
possible for many locations, especially to the west of the Blue
Ridge. At least frost appears likely just about everywhere, and
freezing temps could encompass the entire area outside of the
immediate downtown areas in DC/Baltimore if cooler solutions were to
verify. Frost/Freeze headlines will likely eventually be needed for
much of the forecast area. Would not be surprised if temps
significantly go lower than guidance given this very favorable
pattern. For context, the mountains typically have their first
freeze Oct 11, Shenandoah Valley area Oct 21, and east of Blue Ridge
Nov 1.
Quiet weather conditions and a gradual warming trend in temperatures
are expected for Sunday and Monday as high pressure moves offshore.
High on Sunday and Monday will generally be in the 60s (50s
mountains), with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions through this evening, then a cold front sags south
into the area and stalls through Thursday. Showers and possibly a
thunderstorm are two this evening. Sub-VFR conditions are likely at
times, but it is uncertain if CIGs get any lower than MVFR levels.
Conditions improve Thursday afternoon, with VFR conditions back
through Friday.
A strong cold front moves through Friday afternoon into Friday
night. A noticeable increase in winds is expected. Southwest winds
gust 25-30 knots Friday afternoon, then turn northwest behind the
front Friday night.
Continued VFR conditions are expected on Sat, with winds remaining
out of the NW, but gradually decreasing in magnitude throughout the
day. VFR Sun with winds becoming light out of the south.
&&
.MARINE...
Favorable marine conditions today as winds remain around 10-15
knots. A cold front sags south into the region tonight where it
stalls. An initial surge of northerly winds could produce SCA
conditions over the waters tonight into Thursday morning. Winds
begin to veer east, then southeast Thursday night. SCA conditions
are expected to develop across all the waters by Friday morning,
then Gale conditions are possible Friday afternoon into
Saturday. Winds gradually decrease through the day, then become
light out of the south on Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
South winds today could result in elevated water levels at sensitive
locations along the Chesapeake Bay. Several stations are forecast to
reach Action Stage, with Annapolis and Havre de Grace forecast to be
closer to minor tidal flooding during high tide this evening. A
surge of offshore (north) winds tonight will drop water levels.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Below are the record highs for today, October 14.
Oct 14
Climate Site Record High
Washington-National (DCA) 87F (1975)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 86F (1975)
Baltimore (BWI) 86F (1975)
Annapolis (NAK)85F (1975)
Hagerstown (HGR)84F (1975)
Charlottesville (CHO)94F (1954)
Martinsburg, WV (MRB) 90F (1928)
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KRR/CPB
AVIATION...KRR/CPB
MARINE...KRR/CPB
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