Winooski, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

048
FXUS61 KBTV 061324
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
924 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
One more mild and dry day will give way to widespread rain
tonight ahead of a cold front. Additional more scattered showers
will be possible Monday ahead of a secondary front which will
usher in seasonably chilly air and occasional chances of rain
and high elevation snow showers midweek. The colder air will
begin to moderate moving into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 923 AM EDT Sunday...Morning satellite imagery shows fog
well entrenched within the Winooski River Valley and near
Newport. Given the latest trends in satellite imagery, it`s
plausible this fog could linger through almost noon before being
replaced by mostly sunny skies. Elsewhere, plentiful sunshine is
already being seen with temperatures warming quickly after some
of the coldest temperatures seen since last April. Rainfall
looks to hold off until after sunset so it`ll be another great
day to enjoy the North Country.

Previous Discussion...Widespread fog has developed in the
climatologically favored river valleys early this morning, with
otherwise crisp, seasonably cool and dry weather to start the
day. Temperatures should rise quickly into the 60s as southerly
winds develop, with another warm afternoon ahead. Changeable
weather will develop late in the day as a well defined frontal
system barrels eastward.

This dynamic frontal system will be steered northeastward
through southern Canada through the next couple of days,
bringing a well-defined line of showers through our region
followed by a dry slot and a secondary cold front. With this
storm track, we`ll have ample warm air advection, supporting
mainly elevated convection. Greatest chances of a rumble or two
of thunder continues to be as you go west, and have added in
slight chance of thunder in much of southern St. Lawrence County
this evening where low level moisture and temperatures look
sufficient to get some MUCAPEs near 500 J/kg. As you go eastward
there is increasing spread in CAMs depicting stronger convection
capable of thunderstorms, as a sharp decreasing trend in
instability is evident. Rainfall amounts will be limited by
duration of rainfall in western areas and intensity of rainfall
in eastern areas.

Upstream satellite imagery in northern Michigan and model
depiction of water vapor, there is a pretty narrow axis of deep
moisture and it is tied to some strong low level winds. Expect
this low level jet to reintensify this evening into the early
morning hours right over our region. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 MPH
will be possible near Lake Champlain during this period as well
as locally in portions of the northern Adirondacks and northern
Greens during this period. A lighter, steady rainfall will tend
to redevelop behind the initial line in much of Vermont as this
jet slides through overnight. It will be followed by a
pronounced dry slot, which will be enhanced by modest, downsloping
westerly flow that will develop tomorrow morning.

Isolated to scattered showers are expected to be triggered by
weak instability and low level convergence ahead of a secondary
boundary that crosses our region from west to east during the
day. This front does not look as sharp as the one that comes
through tonight, thus more uncertainty as to where and when it
will rain. As such, PoPs are largely kept in 25% to 50% range
and most of the day will probably be dry. Associated with deep
mixing, temperatures will trend only a bit cooler than recent
days with highs likely to top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Sunday...1000-500mb thicknesses are gonna be on the
decline as an upper low swivels to our north. Such will bring cooler
conditions with mid 30s to mid 40s. Based on the positioning, we may
experience more westerly flow as opposed to northwest flow, and that
appears to allow just a little moisture off Lake Ontario to move
across the region. With some diurnal destabilization, we could be
looking at isolated pop up showers while we sit beneath the core of
the upper low, but did elevate precipitation to 25-35 percent across
parts of the Dacks and far northern Vermont during the day.
Conditions will be cool, with highs in the 50s and some lingering
lower 60s near Springfield.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast models have come into better
alignment on the timing of the vort expected to round the upper low.
It looks like it will pivot southeast Wednesday evening into
Thursday. Such is a bit less ideal since this will mean that mid-
level cooling will have to fight diurnal heating for bringing down
snow levels. The low-levels are going to be quite dry, but there is
quite a bit of moisture between 850-700mb that should permit the
development of a few mountain snow showers. The dry low-level
conditions may allow snow to reach down toward 1500 ft agl, but
should prevent any accumulations with activity
sublimating/evaporating away and yield mainly flurries. High
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 40s to mid
50s. Wednesday morning appears likely to be the coolest night, with
a moisture minimum and lightest winds. The Adirondack airport is
currently forecast to reach 24 F, and surrounding areas are
generally in the 30s. Widespread frost appears pretty likely
Wednesday morning. A few lingering showers in favorable northwest
flow appears possible Thursday. By Friday into the weekend, the
upper low will begin to shift east with a ridge replacing it. This
should warm temperatures up and dry us out. So it should be a nice
weekend. There`s a potential system out there for the early part of
next week, but plenty of spread is out there. Understandable, since
it`s bordering day 8 in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Some lingering dense fog at SLK/EFK/MPV
through 13Z to 14Z, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected
today through at least 00Z. Then some MVFR conditions will
develop associated with steady rain along a frontal boundary at
all sites, with a transition to lower ceilings towards 12Z
especially at EFK and MPV, and possibly at MSS. A non-zero
chance of thunder also exists especially in the 00Z to 03Z
period, with any lightning a bit more likely at western
terminals.

Calm or light drainage wind will trend south-southeasterly, with
gusts to around 20 knots by 18Z possible at PBG/BTV and to
around 15kts elsewhere. As a strong frontal system enters the
region between 00Z and 06Z, wind fields will further increase
leading to areas of LLWS. For now, have mention of LLWS at SLK
and EFK where a more stout low level inversion looks to support
very sharp speed shear, but directional shear is marginal for
the period.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Clay/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Kutikoff