Springfield, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

920
FXUS61 KBTV 131418
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1018 AM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy conditions will gradually break out this afternoon and
evening followed by very pleasant conditions on Monday. After a cold
front cross on Tuesday, a return to elevation dependent rain or snow
showers periodically through Thursday. Temperatures will gradually
moderate for the end of the week. Quiet weather on Friday will give
way to another weekend with precipitation in the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1012 AM EDT Sunday...Its a cloudy and cool day acrs our
region as we continue to be under deep cyclonic flow from slow
moving vertically stack low pres just east of Cape Cod. Radar
trends show some light precip retrograding back toward the NEK,
so chc pops look good there. Otherwise, clouds wl have big
impact on high temps today, along with northerly winds. If late
aftn breaks don`t materialize as expected here in the CPV we may
struggle to the lower 50s. For now made no adjustments, but
noted latest guidance has values in the upper 40s to near 50F,
while central/eastern and northern VT areas struggle in the
upper 30s to mid 40s and the warmest with most clearing wl be
the SLV with highs in the mid 50s. As gradient increases and
mixing slowly improves this aftn, look for north to northeast
winds to increase at 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph in
aligned north to south valleys. All covered well in crnt fcst.

Previous discussion below:
Clouds will be prevalent much of the day with moisture left
meandering across the region. As surface low pressure moves
north towards the Maine Coast, we could see some precipitation
pivot west towards the Northeast Kingdom midday, but dry air
incoming from the west will keep it from shifting much further
west than that. Breezy north to northwest winds will develop in
the afternoon, and this will help push moisture out of the
region towards sunset. We will have an east to west temperature
gradient since the St. Lawrence Valley will get to see some
sunshine while eastern Vermont may only get the benefit of sun
setting beneath overcast. So mid 40s to lower 50s are expected
for eastern Vermont and lower to mid 50s from the Champlain
Valley westwards.

As ridging noses in overnight, we should radiate modestly as winds
decrease. We won`t completely clear out, but there should be enough
to cool into the mid 20s to lower 30s in the Dacks and Northeast
Kingdom, with mid to upper 30s across the rest of the region. Monday
continues to look very nice. Mainly passing clouds and 925 hPa
temperatures increasing to 10 C with light southerly flow suggests
an amplified diurnal curve. Leaned forecast highs west of the Greens
towards the NBM 75th percentile considering the lack of greenery
helping to make the most of favorable conditions for heating. This
results in 60s across the region, except lingering upper 50s in the
Northeast Kingdom. Forecast soundings have trended drier with MOS
guidance picking up on this as well. Nudging dewpoints in the
direction of MOS and NBM 10th percentile results in relative
humidity values falling just below 30 percent for much of the
forecast area. Fortunately, winds will be rather light switching to
the south at 5 to 10 mph. Late Monday evening, an occluding boundary
will begin its fast track east with light rain approaching the St.
Lawrence Valley towards sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Sunday...A prefrontal trough moves through Monday
night, bringing a broken line of showers through the region. There
is the possibility of a little elevated convection, but the
atmosphere is very marginal for that. Precipitation amounts will be
light with this feature, with QPF around and less than 0.15 inches.
Snow levels will be above the summits during the entire event, so
rain is expected everywhere. Temperatures will remain quite mild
Monday night due to a combination of cloud cover and surface
southerly flow. Therefore, lows will generally be in the 40s. The
following cold front moves through during the day on Tuesday with
little fanfare. There could be a shower or two associated with it
but no widespread precipitation is expected. Behind it, the
atmosphere will mix quite deep, up to around 750 mb. This will help
increase winds at the surface, but thankfully winds aloft are not
overly strong. They only reach the 30-35KT range at 750 mb, so
surface maximum gusts generally should not reach much higher than 30
KTs. The strongest winds will be in the St. Lawrence Valley where
channeling should help increase the winds. Highs look to generally
be in the 50s, with the highest temperatures over southern and
eastern areas where the front reaches last. Cold air advection in
the afternoon may make highs earlier than climatological, and dew
points will be dropping consistently during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Sunday...Upslope precipitation begins Tuesday night
and will continue through Wednesday. The mountains should see
exclusively snow, and with steep lapse rates, much of it should be
powdery. As temperatures rise during the day Wednesday, there could
be a little rain mixing in in the valleys, but the steep lapse rates
could cause it to be all snow despite temperatures well above above
freezing. The precipitation will be snow everywhere Wednesday night.
There is some uncertainty on when the upslope precipitation ends.
Some guidance keeps it going all the way through Thursday, and with
a tendency for these events to last on the longer side of guidance,
trended toward this solution. However, snow would likely be lighter
and more scattered on Thursday as the depth of the atmospheric
moisture declines. Ensemble probabilities are tough to use in these
upslope cases since they are too coarse to resolve the terrain well,
so looking at the deterministic guidance, several inches look likely
in the northern Greens and Adirondacks, with the possibility for
significantly more. It looks like the upslope precipitation should
taper off by Friday at the latest, and ridging will briefly build
into the region to end the week. Temperatures should rebound
considerably, with highs generally looking to be in the 50s, though
they should make a run at 60 in the broad valleys. Another storm
system looks to move into the region this weekend, but the
precipitation will likely be only rain, though a few mountain snow
showers are possible on the backside.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Clouds around 500-1800 ft agl are present
from northern New York east, except over KMSS. Ceilings will
gradually lift and also clear from west to east occurs after
19z. North to northwest winds will shortly increase towards 7 to
12 knots sustained with gusts up to 20 knots. Wind speeds will
decline about 22z-00z towards 5 knots or less. Generally passing
clouds overnight. A pocket of LLWS will develop across far
eastern Vermont, but is not anticipated to occur over TAF
terminals.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Taber
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes