Shelburne, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXUS61 KBTV 230904
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
404 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
More elevationally dependent snow and rain will continue this
morning with greater precipitation amounts focused over central
and eastern Vermont. An increasingly breezy, upslope pattern
will support several inches of wet mountain snow through the
weekend in the northern Greens, with minor snow accumulations
possible through much of northeastern Vermont at lower
elevations. Additional precipitation will return as mainly rain
Monday night into Tuesday, with more uncertain chances towards
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 405 AM EST Saturday...Warm air advection aloft from the
east pivoting around deepening low pressure moving northward
towards the Canadian Maritimes is combining with low level
convergent flow to bring widespread light rain and high
elevation snow early this morning. Better ingredients for
precipitation appear to stay in eastern Vermont, especially
northeastern areas, into the midday hours, where PoPs are
greatest and near 100% for a period of time. Precipitation type
will become a rain/snow mix in much of central and eastern
Vermont this morning as temperatures in the mid 30s trend
towards the low 30s. With antecedent warm road temperatures and
relatively low precipitation rates, do not expect any notable
travel issues with minimal accumulation, but elevations above
2000 feet will become increasingly likely to see snowy roads
today. During the late morning hours, precipitation chances
increase more into the favored upslope areas in northern Vermont
with blocked flow and abundant low level moisture.

Pronounced mid-level drying will move in from the west
gradually during the afternoon and evening. That drying will
lead to precipitation becoming more of a drizzle/snizzle
depending on elevation. Low level temperatures remain fairly
warm, consistent with 850 millibar temperatures near -3 celsius,
so concern for icy conditions is fairly low at this time. That
being said, overnight a push of colder air from the west may
support formation of icy roads given wet conditions from today.
At this time, sub- freezing surface temperatures look unlikely
in Vermont below 2500 feet, but more likely to be sub-freezing
across the Adirondack region from the high peaks westward. Then
during the day tomorrow, while snow levels will be quite a bit
lower than today, precipitation will be largely confined to the
northern Green Mountains and northeastern Vermont. Snow
character will be less concrete and more of a typical wet snow
by this point, and several inches of snow could accumulate, with
the strong westerly flow particularly favorable for Jay Peak.

Across the region, breezy conditions will be another story both
today and tomorrow on the backside of the strong low pressure
system to our northeast. Nothing overly windy is anticipated,
but frequent gusts between 30 and 40 MPH will be common today in
eastern portions of new York and much of central and eastern
Vermont, and then again on Sunday with the stronger winds
tending to be farther north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...Relatively quiet short-term forecast
period as narrow surface ridge axis builds eastward across northern
NY into New England. During the first half of Sunday night, residual
cyclonic 700-500mb flow and shallow layer of high RH may allow for a
few lingering snow showers or flurries across n-central into nern
VT. Indicated 20-30 PoPs during the late evening with drying and
trend toward clearing skies, especially after midnight. Little or no
additional snow accumulation expected early Sunday night. Overnight
lows will generally be in the mid-upper 20s, except locally lower
20s in the northern Adirondacks closer to sfc ridge axis. Narrow
ridge axis builds across the North Country during the daylight hrs
on Monday. Looking for partly to mostly sunny conditions and
seasonably cool temperatures with valley highs generally in the
lower 40s. May see some increasing high clouds late in the day
across nrn NY associated with the next system approaching from the
Great Lakes region, but PoPs NIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...We are monitoring two potential
precipitation events during the long- term forecast period. The first
arrives late Monday night into Tuesday as a frontal system
approaches from the Great Lakes, with primary sfc low tracking north
and west of the St. Lawrence Valley. Developing south winds and warm
advection should result in early lows Monday night, with rising
temperatures after midnight. Can`t rule out precipitation starting
as a wintry mix (sleet/freezing rain) in some of the colder valleys
prior to daybreak Tuesday, but overall trend will be for mixed
precipitation to change to rain with limited winter travel impacts,
especially after 12Z Tuesday. Temperatures rise from the low-mid 30s
early Tuesday morning to the low-mid 40s by Tuesday afternoon.
Should see 0.25-0.40" precipitation in most sections of the North
Country with this system, and indicated 80-90% PoPs most areas,
peaking during Tuesday morning.

Cold front pushes through with a shift to westerly flow Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Should see periods of light rain and snow
showers Tuesday night into Wednesday (PoPs 50-60%), with some light
snow accumulations possible, especially away from the Champlain
Valley. Best chance for light snow accumulations will be across the
northern Adirondacks and n-central into nern VT.

Current indications suggest a trend toward drier conditions late
Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day. Valley highs on Thanksgiving Day
generally 35-40F.

Coastal system Thanksgiving night into Friday will be the next
system to watch. Have seen considerable run-to-run variability
during the past couple of days, and the 00Z global deterministic and
ensemble guidance continues to show a large spread of solutions. A
flatter and more progressive system staying to our south continues
to be supported by the 00Z Canadian. The 00Z GFS suggests northern
fringe of precipitation shield may reach Rutland/Windsor counties
during the first half of Friday. On the other hand, the 00Z ECMWF
has a more amplified solution with a negative tilt 500mb trough and
sfc cyclogenesis inside the 40N 70W benchmark bringing accumulation
snowfall across much of VT and portions of northern NY on Friday
into Friday night. At this time, official forecast reflects ~40%
PoPs for Thursday night into Friday. Bottom line: those with holiday
travel plans across the region should continue to monitor the latest
forecasts as winter travel impacts remain possible Thursday night
thru Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Ceilings will trend IFR areawide at most
sites over the next few hours, then hold steady for a bit before
gradually rising during the day. Light precipitation is likely
primarily between 10Z and 20Z and especially at EFK, MPV, and
BTV. While rain is most likely, snow should mix in at SLK, EFK
and MPV for a period of time. Rain/snow should be confined to
showers with more limited coverage during the day tomorrow.
Winds will generally be northwesterly, although trending
westerly after 00Z, with speeds peaking in the afternoon and
early evening with gusts of 15 to 25 knots. Note there may be a
short period of low level turbulence this morning between about
12 and 14Z at RUT when 2000 foot northwesterly winds peak near
40 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Definite SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Definite SHSN.
Tuesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Kutikoff