Montpelier, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

178
FXUS61 KBTV 061952
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are lifting across the area
associated with a surface warm front. Areas of showers will
continue through early Saturday, with a decreasing chance of
rain in the afternoon. Generally seasonable weather is expected
next week, and an unsettled pattern should lead to more chances
for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 351 PM EDT Friday...Currently monitoring showers and
embedded thunderstorms moving across the area for potentially
severe winds and/or flooding rains. The wet weather, with
reduced chances for heavy rainfall, will linger overnight into
Saturday morning before the low pressure system moves to our
east and drags a weak cold front through the area. A secondary
cold front will follow Saturday afternoon. It will have limited
moisture to work with as drier air will have worked in behind
the initial front. As such, risk of additional thunderstorms,
and coverage of showers, will be low. Greatest chances of these
isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm will be in north
central and eastern Vermont. Most locations will be dry Saturday
afternoon, and temperatures should warm nicely as blue skies
become common from west to east with falling humidity levels.
Ridge of surface high pressure will build into our region from
the north on Saturday night and drier weather returns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 351 PM EDT Friday...The second half of the weekend should
be mostly dry as ridging briefly builds over the region. We
should start off with ample sunshine, but some fair weather
cumulus could bubble up in the afternoon, especially over the
higher terrain. Highs will be seasonable, in the 70s pretty much
areawide. Rain chances increase overnight Sunday night as high
pressure shifts exits to the east, making way for another
frontal system. Increasing moisture and clouds will keep lows in
the 50s in most spots, with perhaps some upper 40s in the
Northeast Kingdom.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 351 PM EDT Friday...An upper level trough will slowly
move into the region from the west during the week and it will
push a few fronts through as it progresses eastward. These
fronts will be accompanied by showers and the chance of a few
thunderstorms. However, none of the fronts look like they will
provide significant severe weather at this point, though we will
continue to watch them. The initial front on Tuesday will
provide the best chance for heavy rain. PWATs look to be in the
1.0-1.5 range and there will be relatively high warm cloud
depths. The one thing to watch is the speed of the frontal
passage. Some guidance delays it as they try to form a secondary
low to the south and train some of the rain over the same areas
for much of the day Tuesday, but most sends it through
relatively quickly. Even if the slower solutions verify, it does
not look like there would be a significant flood threat, but
the region is in a marginal ERO for this case. The subsequent
fronts will have much less moisture to work with and look to be
more progressive. Overall, it will be a relatively seasonable
stretch with regards to temperatures and there will be lots of
shower chances, though likely no full day washouts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...MSS continues to be impacted by some
wildfire smoke, 4SM with haze ongoing. Light north winds
continue across the area, and showers approach from the
southwest. Have mainly used Prob 30s for the precipitation which
will impact most terminals later this afternoon into the
evening. Thunderstorm potential limited to mainly RUT, although
rain showers could lower visibilities at times across SLK-BTV-
MPV. Greatest thunderstorm potential at RUT remains primarily
after 20Z, and peaking between 21 and 23Z, before chances
decrease. Any direct hits would result in IFR visibilities,
gusty winds, and possible small hail. Ceilings after 00Z,
especially after 03Z, will trend MVFR especially where rain is
more likely to occur today, at MPV and RUT, and possibly EFK.
Additional showers may occur overnight, especially again at the
southern terminals.

Outlook...

Friday night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Neiles