Milton, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

090
FXUS61 KBTV 141948
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
348 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures and increasing humidity levels will create
conditions favorable for scattered showers and thunderstorms for
late week into the weekend. The greatest potential for precipitation
will be late Friday and again on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with lows holding
in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 347 PM EDT Wednesday...GOES-19 shows a rather messy and complex
mid/upper lvl pattern acrs the eastern CONUS, with sharp/narrow
ridge over northern New England and deep negatively tilted trof over
the Ohio Valley. This high amplified omega type blocking pattern wl
be slow to break down, allowing us for limited threats for showers
tonight into Thurs. As we move into Thurs aftn and evening, the fcst
challenge becomes areal coverage of showers and potential rumbles of
thunder.

As mid/upper lvl trof slowly approach our cwa tonight, moisture in
the 700 to 300mb layer wl continue to increase from south to north.
In addition, increasing low level southeast flow wl continue to
advect Atlantic moisture toward our southern/eastern VT cwa tonight
with lowering cigs likely after midnight, especially eastern side of
the southern Greens. Based on aggregated cumulus field, weak
instability has developed over the SLV/Dacks, where a pop up shower
is possible, but forcing/instability is minimal, so cover wl be
limited. Continue with schc/low chc pops. Lows very similar to last
night with values in the upper 40s to near 60F.

Thursday the mid/upper lvl trof acrs the Ohio Valley shifts slowly
toward central/eastern PA, while forcing is very weak acrs our cwa.
Instability is slightly better, with the GFS showing the best sfc
based CAPE over the SLV of 600 to 1000 J/kg, while the NAM3KM shows
higher instability with values in 800 to 1500 J/kg, with highest
values over the CPV. Deep layer shear is weak with values <20 knots.
Even with the greater instability NAM3KM is very quiet with regards
to progged composite reflectivity, with GFS slightly more robust
with qpf. Given the lack of forcing and limited sfc convergence, I
have kept pops in the schc/ low chc range (20-35%) with highest
values over the Dacks into the CPV. Highs very similar to today with
many areas in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Thurs night is quiet with
any lingering showers dissipating as the sunset. Lows once again in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 347 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday and Friday night will feature
warm and unsettled weather. Southerly flow on Friday will push
temperatures into the lower 80s in parts of our area with upper 70s
elsewhere. A frontal system crosses our area and scattered showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated for Friday afternoon into the
evening, lingering into the first part of the overnight. Overnight
lows will also be warm Friday night, only dipping into the 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 347 PM EDT Wednesday...Showery weather will continue into the
weekend as an upper level low crosses our area. It`s a little tough
to pinpoint timing for the showers, but additional showers are
expected on both Saturday and Sunday. Thunder is looking a bit less
likely for Saturday than on Friday, but will reevaluate as we get
closer to the weekend. Surface and upper level ridging will build
back over the region for early next week, and cooler and drier
weather will return.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites
thru this evening with south to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots
with localized gusts 15 to 25 knots at RUT/BTV. As moisture
continues to increase on southeast flow, expecting cigs to lower
toward MVFR at MPV by 06z and continue thru 12z Thurs. Rest of
the sites should stay VFR with cigs lowering into the 3500-5000
feet level overnight into Thurs. Winds decrease under 10 knots
by sunset this evening. A spot shower is possible at SLK/MSS,
but probability is too low for mention in taf fcst attm.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Taber