Milton, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

487
FXUS61 KBTV 252349
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
749 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 242 PM EDT Saturday...

Little to no changes with regards to a pattern shift towards more
showers and thunderstorms next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 242 PM EDT Saturday...

1. Gradually increasing rain and storm chances for the new week.

2. Multiple rounds of rain mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 242 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mostly dry conditions are expected today into tonight.
Modest radiational cooling will be offset by incoming high clouds,
overnight. Mid 50s to mid 60s are expected early tomorrow morning,
with perhaps a few cool hollows in the upper 40s. On Sunday, surface
high pressure that has locked our region beneath a dry, stable air
mass will shift farther out to sea. High temperatures will rise into
the upper 70s to mid 80s for Sunday. Increasing moisture is
expected, mainly over northern New York while a subtle trough angles
south of the Adirondacks. 250-750 J/kg of CAPE will develop with
daytime heating with weak flow aloft. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorm will be possible across northern New York, while
Vermont will remain mostly dry. Showers will likely favor terrain
boundaries, drift off their point of initiation, and generally
decay. With slow-movers, a few brief downpours could occur. With the
loss of daylight, shower activity will decrease, though perhaps not
entirely 0 percent. Mid 50s to mid 60s are expected still.

Monday will be a rinse-and-repeat, but everything will have shifted
slightly east. With increasing surface dewpoints, we could eke out
closer to 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE, but there will be little shear
present. Northern New York will remain the primary focus for
convection, with fewer cells across Vermont. Some surface confluence
will be present, but there won`t be any upper feature. Convection
will remain garden variety with somewhat higher potential for
localized downpours due to the greater extent of rain and slowly
increasing PWATs.

Then Tuesday will also be largely the same. A stronger upper level
vort will approach from the west, but its influence won`t creep into
the area until relatively late on Tuesday or even Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Forecast scenarios diverge, with the main
differences being the strength and intensity of the incoming surface
low. Most guidance favors a deep, sub 1000mb surface low closing off
near Lake Ontario with the occlusion process resulting in briefly
erratic motions before it shuffles east. A minority favors a weaker
system with a surface low not developing until the upper trough is
moving offshore. All told, there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms with little change to shear or instability regardless
of which forecast scenario you pick. Localized downpours will be
possible, mainly wherever surface convergence aligns with increasing
upper divergence in association with the developing upper low.

KEY MESSAGE 2: An upper level low builds into the region for middle and
late week and brings periods of rain. It looks to move slowly from
west to east Tuesday through Thursday, and the time of its exit is
still very uncertain. A relatively potent surface low should form
along it and bring an area of consistent rainfall, but its exact
position is uncertain. The solution favored by most EPS members puts
the bullseye over central/southern Vermont, where probabilities of
2, 3 and 4 inches of rain are 50-70, 20-50 and 10-20 percent
respectively. This could lead to a flood threat that would need
to be watched carefully. A saving grace is that the precipitation
won`t be as convective after Monday, something that would cut
down on rainfall rates. PWATs look to be in the 1.3-1.5 inch
range, sufficient for heavy rain but not overly high as the
trough is northern stream. The GEFS/CMCE ensembles favor the
track of the surface low over coastal New England and keep the
probability of 3 inches under 10 percent, and the probability of
2 inches in the 10-40 percent range, something less concerning
given the relatively long time of the precip and lower rates.
The rain should become more scattered and diurnally driven late
week and into the weekend, but isolated to scattered afternoon
showers will still be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
for the next 24 hours. The only exception may be KMPV, where
some valley fog could develop between 08Z and 11Z. Thinking
with incoming mid-level clouds, any valley fog that does develop
won`t be dense or long-lived, thus have included a tempo group
for briefly reduced visibilities in the KMPV TAF. Otherwise, fog
at KSLK and KEFK is still possible but less likely, and have
thus left mention out of those tafs. All other TAFs have high
confidence in VFR conditions. Winds in general will be light and
terrain driven.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Myskowski
AVIATION...Duell