Essex, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

697
FXUS61 KBTV 150226
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1026 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures and increasing humidity levels will create
conditions favorable for scattered showers and thunderstorms for
late week into the weekend. The greatest potential for precipitation
will be late Friday and again on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with lows holding
in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1024 PM EDT Wednesday...Minimal changes needed for this
update as moisture continues to stream into the forecast area
out of the south. Temperatures have fallen into the 60s for
most.

Previous discussion...GOES-19 shows a rather messy and
complex mid/upper lvl pattern acrs the eastern CONUS, with
sharp/narrow ridge over northern New England and deep negatively
tilted trof over the Ohio Valley. This high amplified omega
type blocking pattern wl be slow to break down, allowing us for
limited threats for showers tonight into Thurs. As we move into
Thurs aftn and evening, the fcst challenge becomes areal
coverage of showers and potential rumbles of thunder.

As mid/upper lvl trof slowly approach our cwa tonight, moisture in
the 700 to 300mb layer wl continue to increase from south to north.
In addition, increasing low level southeast flow wl continue to
advect Atlantic moisture toward our southern/eastern VT cwa tonight
with lowering cigs likely after midnight, especially eastern side of
the southern Greens. Based on aggregated cumulus field, weak
instability has developed over the SLV/Dacks, where a pop up shower
is possible, but forcing/instability is minimal, so cover wl be
limited. Continue with schc/low chc pops. Lows very similar to last
night with values in the upper 40s to near 60F.

Thursday the mid/upper lvl trof acrs the Ohio Valley shifts slowly
toward central/eastern PA, while forcing is very weak acrs our cwa.
Instability is slightly better, with the GFS showing the best sfc
based CAPE over the SLV of 600 to 1000 J/kg, while the NAM3KM shows
higher instability with values in 800 to 1500 J/kg, with highest
values over the CPV. Deep layer shear is weak with values <20 knots.
Even with the greater instability NAM3KM is very quiet with regards
to progged composite reflectivity, with GFS slightly more robust
with qpf. Given the lack of forcing and limited sfc convergence, I
have kept pops in the schc/ low chc range (20-35%) with highest
values over the Dacks into the CPV. Highs very similar to today with
many areas in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Thurs night is quiet with
any lingering showers dissipating as the sunset. Lows once again in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 347 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday and Friday night will feature
warm and unsettled weather. Southerly flow on Friday will push
temperatures into the lower 80s in parts of our area with upper 70s
elsewhere. A frontal system crosses our area and scattered showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated for Friday afternoon into the
evening, lingering into the first part of the overnight. Overnight
lows will also be warm Friday night, only dipping into the 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 347 PM EDT Wednesday...Showery weather will continue into the
weekend as an upper level low crosses our area. It`s a little tough
to pinpoint timing for the showers, but additional showers are
expected on both Saturday and Sunday. Thunder is looking a bit less
likely for Saturday than on Friday, but will reevaluate as we get
closer to the weekend. Surface and upper level ridging will build
back over the region for early next week, and cooler and drier
weather will return.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z FRIDAY...VFR conditions will continue through the
evening at all sites. Any wind gusts should abate and trend
towards calm within the next hour. Winds will generally become
light to calm from the south/southeast by sunset. Southeasterly
flow will increase moisture in the area, which should lead to
lowering cigs towards MVFR at MPV/SLK/BTV by 08/09/10Z
respectively. Cigs should scatter by 17Z at BTV/SLK, but are
should persist through 18Z at MPV. Rest of the sites should
stay VFR, with some model guidance showing some lower cigs at
EFK/RUT/MSS to near 3000 ft, but lower confidence exists in
actually achieving MVFR levels given downsloping effects at RUT
and drier air at EFK/MSS. Winds will remain southerly tomorrow
5-10 knots. A spot shower is possible at RUT/BTV/PBG between
05-08Z, but probability is too low with little terminal impacts
expected in the taf fct attm.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber/Storm
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Danzig