Essex, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

243
FXUS61 KBTV 201753
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
153 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms chances continue this
afternoon and evening. A few stronger storms with gusty winds,
localized heavy down pours and frequent lightning are possible,
especially across central and southern Vermont, but the threat
is quickly winding down. Much cooler and drier air returns
tonight and continues through early this upcoming week. The next
chances of rain will come late Thursday into Friday as another
front approaches the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 139 PM EDT Sunday...The window for severe storms is
quickly closing at the quasi-stationary boundary begins to sag
southward and as stronger forcing exits eastward. Still could
see some embedded thunderstorms in central/southern Vermont
through 4-5PM. Otherwise, showers will taper off as a trough
shunts the boundary southward this evening. With northwesterly
flow deepening, upslope showers will remain possible through a
little after midnight, especially in the northern Greens.
Otherwise, high pressure Monday will keep cool temperatures over
the North Country with decent radiational cooling overnight
support widespread lows in the 40s to around 50 degrees and some
upper 30s in colder hollows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 139 PM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather is in store for the North
Country on Tuesday as all signs point to deep layer ridging building
across the region during throughout the day. Moisture profiles show
an increasing amount of dry air across the region, likely due to
subsidence, which should allow for mostly sunny skies. There are a
few signs across the Adirondacks on model soundings that we could
see a few fair weather cumulus during the afternoon hours due to
steep low level lapse rates but they should be few with no rain
chances throughout the day. Temperatures will be on the cooler side
of normal as the warm advection won`t take place until later in the
week which will lead to afternoon highs in the 70s across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 139 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday will be noticeably warmer than
Tuesday with temperatures warming into the 80s in most locations.
Mostly sunny skies are once again expected on Wednesday with some
mid to high level clouds moving in towards sunset as the main upper
level ridge axis begins to slide off to the east. How thursday plays
out is still very much up in the air. Models continue to flip back
and forth between having a resurgence of the upper level ridge and
the ridge breaking down. The common theme between guidance this
morning shows the ridge breaking down on Thursday which would lead
to a cooler outcome and higher chances for showers and
thunderstorms. However, if the ridge can hold on, we could see
temperatures warm well into the 90s in the wider valleys with much
drier conditions across the region. Right now, we have hedged our
bets a little bit given the lack of overall run-to-run model
consistency with a 25th percentile blend with the deterministic NBM
to cool temperatures off 1-2 degrees on Thursday. In addition, the
NBM was showing PoPs up to 70% across the International Border on
Thursday and our confidence just isn`t quite that high at this
moment.

A cold front will ultimately slide through the region on Friday with
the timing varying between the pre-dawn hours to the early afternoon
hours. Thunderstorms are expected in either scenario given decent
frontal convergence and change in air mass but any severe threat
going forward will largely be contingent on timing of the cold front
on Friday. Surprisingly, all global deterministic guidance is
encouraging for next weekend as they all show surface high pressure
and weak shortwave ridging moving into the region on Saturday.
Still, with a low amplitude feature like a shortwave, things could
change but trends are encouraging for a seasonally warm and drier
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...A quasi-stationary boundary is draped
across central/southern Vermont with numerous showers north and
chances for TSRA along and south. Rain will be heavy enough to
produce periods of IFR/MVFR. A trough will shunt the boundary
out of the forecast area after 21Z allowing for a brief period
of VFR. Along the trough itself, a few showers could form in
the 00-04Z time frame mainly for northern terminals. Overnight,
moisture and increasing subsidence favors some MVFR CIGs except
at MPV where guidance points to IFR CIGs and some potential for
mist. After 12Z, high pressure builds in in earnest with
gradient winds supporting northwest flow and gusts to around
20kts.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Boyd