Essex, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

732
FXUS61 KBTV 062349
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
649 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 136 PM EST Friday...

Winter Wx Advisory in effect for portions of central and northeast
Vermont tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 136 PM EST Friday...

1. Areas of freezing drizzle and freezing rain tonight across
central and northeast Vermont.

2. Active weather continues by the middle of next week with a
temperature roller coaster possible.

3. The potential for some river ice movement/breakup and the
potential for a few ice jams remains possible later this weekend
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 136 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The forecast remains on track heading into the weekend
which features low pressure tracking northeast through the Great
Lakes and a persistent area of high pressure off the Atlantic
seaboard. Strong south-southwesterly flow between these features
will usher in a warm and moist airmass across the Northeast on
Saturday with temperatures pushing well above seasonal normals. On
the leading edge of the warm air advection CAMs came in with a bit
more areal coverage of showers tonight into Saturday morning which
for the most of the area won`t present any type of hazard, but east
of the Green Mountains we still expect temperatures to fall back
below freezing tonight due to cold air damming. With above freezing
temperatures moving in aloft, the expected precipitation type will
be freezing rain for a short period of time before sunrise across
portions of central and northeast Vermont. Therefore, we`ve gone
ahead and issued a Winter Wx Advisory for light icing up to a tenth
of an inch. After sunrise, temps warm significantly above freezing
ending the threat, with showers continuing across much of the region
through about noon followed by a brief lull, then more showers and
possibly a few rumbles of thunder late afternoon through Saturday
night along a frontal passage. Winds will be additionally gusty
tonight through Saturday as a developing 925-850mb low-level jet
builds over the region and will support strong surface wind gusts
from the SSW 35-45 mph, especially in the Champlain and St. Lawrence
Valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Uncertainty remains in the forecast, mainly in regard to
the middle portions of next week in regard to p-type. The main
player will be an expansive, late season arctic high off to our
north across southern Quebec and its associated frontal zone. The
latter feature should be draped somewhere near our area, so its
placement north/south by Wed/Wed Nt will be critical on eventual
amounts of wintry precipitation (or not) as low pressure rides along
the boundary. Deterministic models remain all over the place with
the latitudinal placement of the front, and given a higher than
normal confidence of a sharp north-south baroclinicity across
the boundary it`s wise not to discount any solution at this
point. We should know more in the next few days. By late week a
general trend toward a more quiet, seasonably cool weather
pattern is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Given milder air pushing into our region over the
weekend and into early next week, some slight to modest river rises
are forecast. While widespread flooding is not expected, these rises
may be enough, in some cases, to foster partial river ice movement
and/or breakup. If that scenario pans out, a few ice jams and
associated flooding may be possible. However, confidence is not high
enough at this point to warrant a Flood Watch. As always, it`s
nearly impossible to predict the exact location of any potential
jams, but with the predicted milder weather conditions will be
monitored closely going forward over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Ceilings are trending towards 1500-3000 ft
agl at this time as moisture is shifting into the region.
Despite south winds of 5-11 knots for much of the area tonight,
some BR or drizzle is expected to develop, especially in eastern
facing areas. Temperatures at KMPV will likely be cool enough
that some freezing drizzle or rain is expected, mainly between
04z and 12z. As dewpoints rise above freezing, this foggy over
snow situation will likely produce 2-5SM visibility and ceilings
500-1500 ft agl. Although upstream observations suggest being
pessimistic, decided to slow the trend towards any IFR until
precipitation arrives and noted it mainly within PROB30s given
some uncertainty in the placement since rain will play a role in
reducing visibility. The exceptions are KMPV and KSLK where
prevailing IFR is noted about 06z-16z. As for winds, 35-45 knots at
2000 ft will likely produce LLWS at all terminals. Although it`s
expected to increase further, areas like KBTV may not
technically meet thresholds at times as surface winds increase
most in the Champlain Valley with gusts near to above 30 knots
at KBTV. Shower activity will diminish about 15-18z. Some
improvement to ceilings are possible, and definitely visibility,
as daytime heating takes place. A cold front will approach from
the west towards KMSS about 22z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Definite FZRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lahiff
DISCUSSION...Lahiff/JMG
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV